Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/10/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
337 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
...SMALL PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...
STILL SOME MODERATE FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH SEEM TO BE LACKING ANY
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES TODAY TO HELP FIRE OFF CONVECTION. SFC PRESSURE
FALLS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL OFF INTO
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHILE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. 16Z HRRR
MIXES DRY LINE EASTWARD TO ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIM TO LA JUNTA
BY 00Z WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE...AND ELEVATED HEATING
ALONG THE RIDGE OF OF THE RATON MESA TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH
THE POOLING DEW POINTS EAST OF THE DRY LINE...COULD SEE CAPES
1500-2000+ J/KG...WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. EACH
SUCCESSIVE HRRR RUN SEEMS TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NRN
SLOPES OF THE RATON...EASTWARD ACROSS BACA...BENT...PROWERS...AND
KIOWA COUNTIES AFTER 21Z. WITH SUCH HIGH CAPE VALUES...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEARS STILL RUNNING AROUND 30-40 KTS...THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EAST OF THE DRY LINE.
SPC HAS A 5% PROB FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED GIVEN LACK OF STRONG FORCING
ALOFT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 03Z. AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND WINDY DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A CALL AROUND TO FIRE DISTRICTS OUT WEST
INDICATES THAT DRYING FUELS SHOULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY BY TOMORROW. WITH FLOW ALOFT INCREASING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND INTO WRN MT
SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SPREADING DOWN THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION
TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND FREMONT COUNTY...AND WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
ISSUANCE. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE...THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE CRITICAL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
MANY AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAD RAIN IN THE RECENT DAYS...BUT SOME
MISSED OUT...AND FINER FUELS MAY BE CRITICALLY DRY IN THESE PATCHY
AREAS. HOWEVER...FUELS ACROSS FIRE ZONES 232...233 (EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND OTERO COUNTIES)...WHICH ALSO MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE SOLID REPORTS OF SUFFICIENT
GREEN UP TO OFFSET ANY CURING FUELS...SO HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON
THESE REPORTS FOR OTHER AREAS SUCH AS PUEBLO COUNTY...AND PORTIONS
OF CROWLEY COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THUS RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. STILL
SUFFICIENT GREEN UP FROM SNOW MELT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL...SO THOSE WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A NICE SUMMER-LIKE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND 60S AND 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. -KT
.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WYOMING AND
MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DRY WITH DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE
30S. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
MINIMAL. ONLY HAVE ISOLATED POPS OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE MODELS SUGGEST VERY MODEST CAPE VALUES
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN THE EVENING...SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FIRE SOME
CONVECTION...AND MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS. AIR ALOFT WILL BE DRY AND DECIDED NOT TO ADD ANY POPS TO
THE MOUNTAINS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 18Z NAM IS A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
.MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. MODELS KEEP THE HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. ONLY HAVE ISOLATED POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF CAPE. AIR ALOFT REMAINS DRY AND DID NOT ADD ANY POPS TO THE
REMAINING MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.
.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...RETURN FLOW MAY BRING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STARTING WEDNESDAY...TROUGH STARTS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. A
LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TOUGH TO FORECAST THESE SUBTLE FEATURES
IN DAYS 4 TO 7...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT.
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH GUSTY SOUTH WIND IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED
TCU POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF KPUB...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KCOS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING INTO KCOS AND KALS DURING
THE LATE MORNING...AND BY 18-19Z AT KPUB. GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ221-222-
224-225.
&&
$$
31/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1125 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR SATURDAY...AFTER CONFERRING WITH DISPATCH ON THE FUELS. ALSO
UPDATED TO INCLUDE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...ALONG A NARROW AXIS RUNNING FROM BRANSON
TO NEAR LA JUNTA. ALTHOUGH WE APPEAR TO BE LACKING A SHORTWAVE TO
HELP FIRE OFF THUNDERSTORMS...SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRY LINE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THIS REGION. HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT
THIS POTENTIAL. GIVEN CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500-2000+ K/JG WITH
DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 50S TO THE EAST OF THIS
AXIS...THUNDERSTORMS DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE IF
THEY DEVELOP...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...LACK OF STRONG FORCING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP HIGHLY LOCALIZED. SPC DOES HAVE
PORTIONS OF SE CO UNDER A 5% PROB FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL...AND ITS
HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS. SHORT RANGE MODELS DO MIX THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...SO THINK THESE AREAS WILL NOT
BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. WILL BE A LATE
SHOW IF IT HAPPENS...PROBABLY AFTER 3 PM. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT TAF SITES...WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF
KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS...PARTICULARLY AT KCOS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY 02Z...WITH LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY 17-18Z ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS
BY AFTERNOON. -KT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENTLY SEVERE
STORM LOCATED OVER EXTREME NE EL PASO COUNTY MOVING SSE. THIS STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSE AND SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT HALF
HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOTS OF CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE PLAINS WITH
LOW CIGS NOTED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DRIER WX MOVING INTO THE REGION.
MTNS...VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR WILL SEE DRIER AIR INVADE THE
REGION. FAR E PLAINS WILL REMAIN MOIST BUT WITH LITTLE FORCING...DO
NOT SEE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE (2000 J/KG). IT WILL BE BREEZY OVER THE HIGHER MTNS
AND FAR E PLAINS TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE PLAINS...MAINLY E OF KLHX.
LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
..HOT AND DRY ON SATURDAY...
..MORE STORMS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...
ACTIVE WX IS EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED...AS A PROGRESSIVE AND
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED JET PATTERN PERSISTS.
WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE SATURDAY...AS SWRLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A
STRONG TROUGH MOVING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL SEE TEMPS
APPROACH 100 F OVR THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. FIRE WX SITUATION IS A
BIT TRICKY...WITH WORST METEOROLOGIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVR AREAS
WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE OFFSET EARLIER DRY FUEL CONDITIONS. FORESTED
SLOPES IN FIRE WX WATCH AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH...BUT RH
AND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS BAD FOR THOSE AREAS. IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL MAINTAIN THE WATCH FOR NOW.
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL KNOCK DOWN SUN AFTERNOON TEMPS
10-20 DEG COMPARED TO SAT HIGH TEMPS. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVE OVR THE PALMER DVD AND ERN MTS. UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS
MODEST...BUT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH UPSLOPE AND LLVL MOISTURE TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHWRS/STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE DRYLINE MAKES DIURNAL ADVANCES OVR THE ERN CO
PLAINS. WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR
SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF AN UPSTREAM PACIFIC LOW
THAT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS
DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS. IN ANY CASE...TREND SHOULD BR TO DRY
AND WARM WX BY FRI AS THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES. 44
AVIATION...LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS KPUB AND KCOS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. VFR WILL OCCUR AT KALS NEXT 24H.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ221-222-224-225.
&&
$$
31/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1027 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
LATE MORNING FOG WAS MAINLY OVER EAST COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST
MASS...BUT IS TRENDING TO DISSIPATION. ONE AREA MOVED NORTH INTO
NANTUCKET RIGHT AFTER THEY CLEARED FROM A PREVIOUS FOG AREA. WE
EXPECT THIS SECOND ONE TO BREAK/THIN BY MIDDAY BUT FOG CAN BE A
TOUGH CHARACTER AT TIMES. WHERE THE FOG HAS BROKEN...TEMPS SHOT
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...SO EXPECTED MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK
LIKE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
BOSTON WINDS WERE SOUTH MID MORNING BUT THE WEAK FLOW SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR A TURN TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL. WE DELAYED THE SHIFT A LITTLE
FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST BUT OTHERWISE HAVE A SEA BREEZE ALONG
THE MASS EAST COAST.
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH FORECAST CAPES IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND LI/S -3 TO -5. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
BOTH LOW AND HIGH EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET ARRIVING OVER EASTERN NY AT
18Z AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 21Z-03Z AND DEPARTING 03Z-06Z.
PER THE ALBANY MORNING SOUNDING...AND WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30
KNOTS AT 850 MB DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE 1000 FEET. WOULD EXPECT
MULTICELLS/SHORT LINES WITH POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A FEW BOWS. AREA
OF GREATEST CONCERN IS SOUTHERN NH/CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASS AND
SOMEWHAT LESSER IN NORTHERN CT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
SUNSET WILL MEAN THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OF US AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DURING 00Z-06Z. SO EXPECTING A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A STALLED COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF
LEFTOVER CLOUDS...SO NOT AS CONCERNED FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY. THINKING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT
THIS TIME WILL BE ACROSS CT...BUT THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE JUST
YET. USED A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPERATURE INCREASE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL START OF NEXT WEEK.
* FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MID-WEEK.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR START OF
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TIMING FOR THE
SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL AS STRONG COLD FRONT FOR MID WEEK AS THERE ARE
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
DETAILS...
MODELS/PATTERN...
00Z GUIDANCE IS IN MODEST AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
BY TUESDAY. NOTICED THE ECMWF IS A TAD MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS
RUN COMPARED TO PREV AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. BELIEVE SHORTWAVE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL INTERRUPT THE FLOW BY TUES INTO
WED. DYNAMIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH WED/THURSDAY HOWEVER
STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES AND TIMING AS THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTER OF
THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF THE LESS AMPLIFIED. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS
FORM A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD EFFECT THE
REGION FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH NW TO SE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF THE FRONT...SO EXPECT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ESP
ACROSS CT AND SOUTHERN RI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND BUILD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...HAVE LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL. TEMPS FOR SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WITH COOLER COAST DUE TO SEA BREEZES. LOW TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND HPC ALL AGREE WITH RIDGING OCCURRING AT THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY
SLIDES OFF SHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS ON TIMING OF DYNAMIC COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN TIMING DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE. BELIEVE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THERE AREA STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE STILL ON EXACT TIMING. UNCERTAIN ON EXACT EXIT TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY DYNAMIC SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THUNDER MENTIONING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IN SOUTHEAST MA AND 1/4 MILE VSBYS ON NANTUCKET
SHOULD IMPROVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
NH/W MA/N CT WITH BRIEF LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE
STRONGER TSTMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR IN GENERAL...BUT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS S NH/NW MA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E AND NE MA/S CENTRAL NH. S OF
THERE...MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLD
TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR
SEA BREEZE OCCURRING MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY 430-7 PM. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WOULD DISSIPATE BY 8
AM.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER 18Z. TSTMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTM DIMINISHES AFTER 02Z. ALSO A CHANCE
OF IFR IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS.
MON INTO TUES...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SAT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT VSBYS AND
CAUSE GUSTY WINDS SAT NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE BELOW SCA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS WILL
WILL INCREASE SEAS TO SCA. EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP AND GUSTY WINDS TO
OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHWARD LATE SATURDAY, PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY, STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS...AS THEY HAVE BEEN MOST OF THE
WEEK...WILL BE THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LAST FEW SHOWERS RIDING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ACTIVITY...BEING DRIVEN BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE FLOW...PROBABLY
DISSIPATES BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONFIRMS THIS
THOUGHT...AND UNLESS TRENDS CHANGE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.
PATCHY FOG IS TRYING TO FORM IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FOG WILL BE CARRIED INTO THE HOURS JUST
AFTER SUNRISE. WHILE THE PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME DENSE (DUE TO LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS)...IF IT DEVELOPS IT WILL BE HANDLED WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
THE AIRMASS IS WARMING FROM WITHIN...AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PEAK NEAR 11 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING
THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW MIXING FROM ABOVE THIS LEVEL. MOS GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS TODAY...AND WITH A BIT LESS IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW...THESE
NUMBERS ARE ACCEPTED.
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN
THURSDAY. DEW POINTS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...AND AGAIN MOISTURE LOOKS TO
BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARMING WILL START THE PROCESS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING A PAIR OF WEAK SPOKES ROTATING
THROUGH THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
CONVECTION GOING.
THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIE FROM THE THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...WHERE MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST
MEAN LAYER CAPE. THE OVERALL SHEAR PATTERN IMPROVES AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON...WITH SHEAR VALUES REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON NORTH. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER
ORGANIZED CELLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND MORE LIKELY
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS HERE SUGGEST BETTER DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS...AND DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE
AS THE PAST FEW DAYS (WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVELS)...SO SMALL
HAIL IS PROBABLY THE BEST STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER.
AT THIS POINT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL
NOT BE INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF QUESTIONS ABOUT
COVERAGE. IN ANY EVENT...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS COULD MOVE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NEW JERSEY SHORE...SO THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE EXTENDED TO THESE AREAS IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE CONVECTION COULD CUT OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AS MID LEVEL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM...ALLOWING CAPPING
TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING...AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES TO THE EAST AND OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
COULD ROTATE THROUGH THE BROADLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE AIRMASS IN WARMING FROM
WITHIN...SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
FOR THE MOST PART...LOWS WERE BASED ON THE MOS BLEND. IN NORMALLY
COOLER AREAS...LOWS WERE NUDGED DOWN CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS
NUMBERS...AS LIGHT WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE START THE PERIOD OFF WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES EASTWARD. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION IN THE MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW BUT APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
WEEK IN NATURE. THESE WAVES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST
ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE
LOW TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE HAS IMPROVED AS THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL SEEM TO HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING. STILL, JUST HOW FAST IT MOVES WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN WARMER THAN THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL PRETTY WARM BUT
HAVE COOLED WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 14-16C RANGE, AS OPPOSED TO THE
15-18C THEY WERE SHOWING ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS AVERAGE.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND BY MONDAY MORNING
SETTLES ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BEGINS TO NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING MORE
OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHICH SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COOLER. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLOSER TO 12C, EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, IN THE LOWER 80S.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY
BUT WITH THE SURFACE FLOW REMAIN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HINTS THAT
THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OUR AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP NEAR THE 2 INCH MARK,
WE COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH 1200 UTC AT MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTIONS
WOULD BE KRDG...KMIV AND KACY...AS THESE LOCATIONS SAW RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KRDG IS ALREADY
IFR...AND COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KMIV AND KACY ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...AND COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR FOG BETWEEN 0800 UTC AND
1100 UTC.
AFTER THE LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIFT AFTER 1200 UTC...A GENERAL
VFR DAY IS EXPECTED. THERE IS MORE GRADIENT FLOW TODAY...SO GUSTS
BETWEEN 18 AND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN
MOST PLACES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE THUNDER
WOULD BE KABE AND KRDG. THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED YET...SINCE
CONFIDENCE IN NOT HIGH ENOUGH...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH THE 1200
UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS.
ANY LOCATION MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE 0300 UTC
SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION...AS IT IS THIS MORNING...COULD BE TERMINALS THAT GET
RAIN. ANY SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS TO OCCUR AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY WEST OF KPHL, IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LIMITS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE SNAPPED BACK TO THE SYNOPTIC WIND DIRECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE DROPPED BACK BELOW 15 KNOTS JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. THE GRADIENT FLOW LOOKS TO BE MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR OVER THE COOLER
WATER...AND THIS WILL DAMPEN ANY MIXING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MIXING WILL BE OVER THE DELAWARE BAY...AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE OCEAN. EVEN HERE...MIXING WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS. IN
FACT...FURTHER OFFSHORE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD RELAX ENOUGH
FOR WINDS TO GO SOUTH...AND GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS (LIKE AT 44009).
IN ANY EVENT....WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY TEND TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE 925 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS...IN TWO PUSHES. THE FIRST PUSH WILL BE
THIS EVENING...AND THE WARMER AIR OVER COOLER WATERS SHOULD LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF MIXING FOR THIS PUSH. THE SECOND PUSH LOOKS TO BE
LATER (CLOSER TO 0900 UTC). THIS PUSH MAY HAVE A BIT MORE TRANSFER
POTENTIAL AS THE AIR OVER LAND COOLS...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS...EVEN IN GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GET GUSTY, AROUND 20 TO
25 KNOTS, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAY APPROACH 5 FEET AROUND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THUS FAR HAS PEAKED ABOUT ONE-HALF BELOW THE
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BENCHMARK ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS...INCLUDING THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE
UPPER BAY WILL ALSO PEAK BELOW THE BENCHMARK...AND TRENDS SUGGEST
THE SAME WILL OCCUR ON THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. IF
TRENDS CONTINUE...THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED TO
INDICATE THE END OF THE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
AS THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES CONTINUE TO DROP AS WE MOVE AWAY FROM
THE FULL MOON...THE THREAT FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD DIMINISH.
THE MOST RECENT STORM SURGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE OF INTEREST (MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING) SHOULD REMAIN BE,LOW
THE BENCHMARK...SO NO FURTHER ACTION APPEARS NECESSARY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...HAYES/MEOLA
MARINE...HAYES/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1044 PM EDT Sat Jun 9 2012
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
After some heavier rainfall pushed through the area earlier, we
are currently in a bit of a lull since about 00z with mainly a
scattering of lighter showers and a few isolated thunderstorms or
heavier rain showers. The MCV that was being monitored earlier
just to the west of the area has continued its NNE trajectory and
has pushed into central Alabama, with much of the related shower
activity to the east diminishing over the past few hours. We may
be in a region of subsidence at the moment in the wake of this
relatively strong, convectively-induced vortex. Cloud cover on IR
satellite has diminished to the south of the MCV, indicating
similar trends. The 23z HRRR appears to have initialized the
mesoscale details quite well. As the mid-level subsidence peels
away to the north with continued northward motion of MCV in 03-06z
timeframe, the HRRR initiates widespread showers and storms in the
same timeframe from SE AL to the south and southwest into offshore
areas of the Gulf. The 23z run of our local WRF-ARW indicates
similar redevelopment, although it is delayed by a few hours.
Given a lack of substantial upstream echoes on radar, it does not
seem prudent to expand the current Flash Flood Advisory at this
time. However, with the environment still laden with deep tropical
moisture, and models continuing to show redevelopment, the Flash
Flood Watch will be continued into Sunday morning. The overnight
shift can re-evaluate if redevelopment looks less likely.
GOES-derived PWATs and mid-level winds still show an impressive
plume of tropical moisture extending from our local area SSW into
Central America. PWATs in this plume are largely 2.0" to as much
as 2.3" in a few pockets. Given this setup, which is commonly
associated with heavy rainfall, the potential for flash flooding is
still high enough in the Flash Flood Watch to let the watch continue
into Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION [through 00z Monday]...
Tricky TAF forecast with an abundance of rain and storms around
the region. Terminals have been bouncing back-and-forth between
various flight categories - but generally VFR and MVFR except in
the heaviest rain. Rain and storms will be most likely in the TAF
period at DHN and ECP, and will probably be more sporadic further
to the east. Will add most detail in the first 6 hours (through
06z) and show general trend towards IFR/MVFR as we approach
sunrise, with lingering MVFR into Sunday, especially west.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 72 88 73 90 72 / 60 70 40 50 40
Panama City 74 85 75 85 74 / 80 70 40 50 40
Dothan 70 85 72 86 71 / 70 80 50 60 40
Albany 70 86 71 87 71 / 60 70 60 60 50
Valdosta 71 88 71 90 71 / 50 60 50 50 30
Cross City 73 89 72 90 71 / 30 50 30 30 30
Apalachicola 75 85 76 85 75 / 70 70 30 40 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Central Walton-
Coastal Bay-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Walton-South Walton-
Washington.
High Risk Rip Currents through Sunday afternoon for coastal
Walton and coastal Bay Counties.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Lamers
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
925 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.UPDATE (REST OF THIS EVENING/TONIGHT)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR TO THE
PATTERN FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE
OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
PATTERN EXISTS AT THE LOWER LEVELS WHERE THE BOUNDARY THAT HELPED
FOCUS ALL THE SHOWERS/STORMS LAST NIGHT HAS RETREATED NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE BEST LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND GENERALLY OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FOCUS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS
(10-15+ INCHES) ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SATURDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. LUCKILY
FOR OUR REGION...THE LIFTING NORTH OF THIS FOCUS FINALLY GAVE OUR
REGION A "DRIER" FORECAST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE STILL SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
THIS CONVECTION WAS RELATED MORE TO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL HEATING AND
FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION. STILL SEEING A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
OUT THERE THIS MID-EVENING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION CAN BE TRACKED BY THE KTBW RADAR BACKING IN TOWARD THE
TAMPA BAY AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN KICKING
OFF A FEW SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE PAST HOUR OR 2 AND MAY BRING THE
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR STORM CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH 11PM.
THEREAFTER...THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL SHUT DOWN THE
CONVECTION WITH A MAINLY DRY REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PROGGED BY
ALMOST ALL THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE WITH LOWER 70S COMMON INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (SUNDAY - MONDAY)...
THE WEST GULF TROUGH/LOW LIFTS UP ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AS AN OPEN TROUGH WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
CUBA...WITH IT/S AXIS TO THE NORTH SLIDING TO JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE ATLANTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO SOUTH FL AND THEN LIFTS
NORTH...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT EXITS THE STATE
TONIGHT...AND IS REINFORCED BY THE SE U.S. HIGH WHICH SAGS
SOUTHWARD.
TODAY WILL THE LAST OF THE HIGHEST ODDS OF RAINFALL. WHILE THE CWA
IS QUIET RIGHT NOW THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY OFF SHORE AND
HEATING IS STARTING TO FIRE SOME CONVECTION ONSHORE. SO FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH THE AFTERNOON POPS...THAT TREND DOWN TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON WHEN
THE PWAT VALES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 1 AND 3/4 INCH
RANGE. ALTHOUGH THAT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS SUN...AND WIDELY SCATTERED BY MON. THE TIMING WILL
BECOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE PROVIDING A FOCUS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO EAST AND SE
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THEN MOVES NORTH BUT WITH A RELAXED
ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR A SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE 30
PERCENT OR LESS SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUN
AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WINDS EAST AND SE AT
5 TO 10 KT...BUT SHIFTING TO ONSHORE IN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 92 77 93 / 20 30 10 20
FMY 76 93 76 92 / 20 30 10 20
GIF 74 93 74 93 / 20 30 20 20
SRQ 74 90 76 91 / 20 20 10 20
BKV 70 93 74 93 / 20 30 10 20
SPG 77 91 79 91 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...14/MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...09/RUDE
AVIATION...63/JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
907 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.UPDATE...
WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NWD OVER NE FL THIS EVENING PRODUCING SCTD
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE
OCCURRED BUT FOR MOST PART THE ACTIVITY HAS KEPT MOVING AND MAJOR
FLOODING HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED ALTHOUGH SOME TRAINING SHOWERS HAVE
RECENTLY BEEN NOTED OVER CLAY AND DUVAL COUNTIES. RADAR SHOWS
MOVING NORTH AND NE WITH VERY FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...HOWEVER THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
NEAR APALACHEE BAY WILL TRACK OVER NE FL LATER TONIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACRS NE FL. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
NWD...BULK OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO SE GA AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK AND UPDATES HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO POPS AND WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
GNV AND VQQ REPORT IFR CIGS WITH RAIN IN VICINITY. THINK CIGS WILL
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT AND WILL AMEND TAFS FOR THESE SITES. MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT JAX AND CRG.
&&
.MARINE...
SCEC CONDS OCCURRING AT THE BOUYS AND WILL KEEP HEADLINE GOING
TONIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS TO REFLECT REPORTS FROM THE BUOYS
AND THEN SHOW DECREASING WIND SPEEDS TOWARD SUNRISE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 69 88 70 92 / 60 90 80 50
SSI 73 83 75 86 / 60 70 60 20
JAX 70 89 71 91 / 70 80 70 30
SGJ 73 86 73 87 / 70 60 50 20
GNV 71 91 71 92 / 40 60 40 30
OCF 71 92 72 93 / 30 50 40 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
MKT/BN/SPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.AVIATION...
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIURNAL
HEATING. KPBI AND KFLL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN TERMINALS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE TSRAS. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION AND SEEM TO BE
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR DOES
DEPICT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH AFFECTING KMIA AND POSSIBLY
KTMB. KEPT VCTS AT THESE TERMINALS FOR NOW. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHRAS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSRAS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LINGERING BOUNDARY BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AND THEREFORE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF TAFS AFTER 00Z. 10/CD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY HAVE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS N FL WITH A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FAR WESTERN
GOFMEX. AT THE SAME TIME THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC. THESE SYSTEMS ARE COMBINING
TO PRODUCE A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS S FL AND AIDING IN THE
TRANSPORT OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR CONVEVTION TO FIRE UP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY BROWARD AND PALM
BEACH COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE LAKE OKEE REGION. THE HRRR WHICH
PERFORMS QUITE WELL IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT FROM GLADES TO CENTRAL
COLLIER COUNTIES BY NOON AND THEN BUILDING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE DISCUSSION. SO THE
EMPHASIS WILL BE GENERALLY BE INLAND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY ZONE BUT ALL IN ALL WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE COULD GET AT LEAST
SOME CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING DOES SHOW SOME
DRYING OCCURRED IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH IN TURN WILL ALSO HELP IN THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE ALONG WITH THE POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
AVIATION...A VRY MOIST SW WND FLOW ALOFT OVER S FLA ATTM WITH SOME
SHRA DVLPG OFF AND ON OVER THE INTERIOR WHICH HAV BEEN MOVG NE AND
INTO THE ATLC. ALL TERMINALS VFR THRU 16Z THOUGH VCSH PSBL SE AND AT
KAPF WITH VRY BRIEF MVFR CIG. AFT 16Z E COAST TERMINALS VCTS WITH
TSRA PSBL THRU 00Z THEN VCSH. GUSTY WNDS PSBL WITH TSRA AND LCLLY
HVY RA. SFC WNDS SSW-SW < 10 KTS WITH A PSBL SSE SEA BRZE DVLPG AFT
14Z. AT KAPF...VCSH INITIALLY AND TSRA PSBL BUT WILL AMD AS NEEDED
WITH VCTS AFT 14Z. SFC WND CALM ATTM BUT WL BCM SSW-SW ARND 10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
IT REMAINS VERY HUMID THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND TOWARDS GLADES COUNTY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
KEYS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MIAMI. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
GULF...TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN...AROUND THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN/FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINED ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF...AND A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF TODAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY TODAY.
SO DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE HELPING SPARK CONVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE PUSHING RIGHT UP AGAINST SOUTH
FLORIDA..THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION AND NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDINESS TODAY COULD LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY A LITTLE...AND
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD HAVE A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...AND TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 90 BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THE
REGION TODAY...SO BUMPED UP POPS TO 70 TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF...AND AROUND 60 PERCENT SOUTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY TROPICAL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND PWATS AOB 2 INCHES. SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS. STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THE SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO EXIT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...SO
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.
AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF MOVES
BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. SO THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD...LOWERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION COULD ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIED. AN OVERALL DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
RISE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD
APPROACH THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST...WITH MAINLY LOW
90S ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO ROTATE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR
THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF.
SO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION WILL DICTATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK. THIS FEATURE
MAY HELP ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...POPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO AT LOW END CHANCE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION...
A VRY MOIST SW WND FLOW ALOFT OVER S FLA ATTM WITH
SOME SHRA DVLPG OVR THE FLA STRAITS AND SE FLA WITH A LRG AREA OF
SHRA MOVG UPON THE W CNTRL FLA COAST AND MOVG TWD LK OKEE. ALL
TERMINALS VFR THRU 16Z THOUGH VCSH PSBL SE AND AT KAPF WITH VRY
BRIEF MVFR CIG. AFT 16Z E COAST TERMINALS VCTS XCPT PROB30 AT KPBI
/KFLL AND KFXE WITH VCTS ELSWHR E COAST. TSRA PSBL THRU 00Z THEN
VCSH. GUSTY WNDS PSBL WITH TSRA AND LCLLY HVY RA. SFC WNDS SSW-SW
< 10 KTS WITH A PSBL SSE SEA BRZE DVLPG AFT 14Z. AT KAPF...VCSH
INITIALLY AND TSRA PSBL BUT WILL AMD AS NEEDED WITH VCTS AFT 14Z.
SFC WND CALM ATTM BUT WL BCM SSW-SW ARND 10 KTS.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
OVER ALL THE LOCAL WATERS...AS THEY SWING FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION TODAY TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS
WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 75 90 / 50 50 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 78 90 / 40 40 20 20
MIAMI 78 90 78 91 / 40 40 20 20
NAPLES 76 90 76 92 / 40 50 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
951 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY HAVE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS N FL WITH A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FAR WESTERN
GOFMEX. AT THE SAME TIME THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC. THESE SYSTEMS ARE COMBINING
TO PRODUCE A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS S FL AND AIDING IN THE
TRANSPORT OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR CONVEVTION TO FIRE UP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY BROWARD AND PALM
BEACH COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE LAKE OKEE REGION. THE HRRR WHICH
PERFORMS QUITE WELL IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT FROM GLADES TO CENTRAL
COLLIER COUNTIES BY NOON AND THEN BUILDING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE DISCUSSION. SO THE
EMPHASIS WILL BE GENERALLY BE INLAND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY ZONE BUT ALL IN ALL WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE COULD GET AT LEAST
SOME CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING DOES SHOW SOME
DRYING OCCURRED IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH IN TURN WILL ALSO HELP IN THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE ALONG WITH THE POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
AVIATION...A VRY MOIST SW WND FLOW ALOFT OVER S FLA ATTM WITH SOME
SHRA DVLPG OFF AND ON OVER THE INTERIOR WHICH HAV BEEN MOVG NE AND
INTO THE ATLC. ALL TERMINALS VFR THRU 16Z THOUGH VCSH PSBL SE AND AT
KAPF WITH VRY BRIEF MVFR CIG. AFT 16Z E COAST TERMINALS VCTS WITH
TSRA PSBL THRU 00Z THEN VCSH. GUSTY WNDS PSBL WITH TSRA AND LCLLY
HVY RA. SFC WNDS SSW-SW < 10 KTS WITH A PSBL SSE SEA BRZE DVLPG AFT
14Z. AT KAPF...VCSH INITIALLY AND TSRA PSBL BUT WILL AMD AS NEEDED
WITH VCTS AFT 14Z. SFC WND CALM ATTM BUT WL BCM SSW-SW ARND 10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
IT REMAINS VERY HUMID THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND TOWARDS GLADES COUNTY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
KEYS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MIAMI. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
GULF...TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN...AROUND THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN/FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINED ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF...AND A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF TODAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY TODAY.
SO DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE HELPING SPARK CONVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE PUSHING RIGHT UP AGAINST SOUTH
FLORIDA..THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION AND NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDINESS TODAY COULD LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY A LITTLE...AND
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD HAVE A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...AND TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 90 BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THE
REGION TODAY...SO BUMPED UP POPS TO 70 TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF...AND AROUND 60 PERCENT SOUTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY TROPICAL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND PWATS AOB 2 INCHES. SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS. STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THE SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO EXIT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...SO
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.
AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF MOVES
BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. SO THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD...LOWERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION COULD ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIED. AN OVERALL DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
RISE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD
APPROACH THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST...WITH MAINLY LOW
90S ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO ROTATE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR
THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF.
SO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION WILL DICTATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK. THIS FEATURE
MAY HELP ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...POPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO AT LOW END CHANCE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION...
A VRY MOIST SW WND FLOW ALOFT OVER S FLA ATTM WITH
SOME SHRA DVLPG OVR THE FLA STRAITS AND SE FLA WITH A LRG AREA OF
SHRA MOVG UPON THE W CNTRL FLA COAST AND MOVG TWD LK OKEE. ALL
TERMINALS VFR THRU 16Z THOUGH VCSH PSBL SE AND AT KAPF WITH VRY
BRIEF MVFR CIG. AFT 16Z E COAST TERMINALS VCTS XCPT PROB30 AT KPBI
/KFLL AND KFXE WITH VCTS ELSWHR E COAST. TSRA PSBL THRU 00Z THEN
VCSH. GUSTY WNDS PSBL WITH TSRA AND LCLLY HVY RA. SFC WNDS SSW-SW
< 10 KTS WITH A PSBL SSE SEA BRZE DVLPG AFT 14Z. AT KAPF...VCSH
INITIALLY AND TSRA PSBL BUT WILL AMD AS NEEDED WITH VCTS AFT 14Z.
SFC WND CALM ATTM BUT WL BCM SSW-SW ARND 10 KTS.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
OVER ALL THE LOCAL WATERS...AS THEY SWING FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION TODAY TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS
WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 75 89 75 / 70 50 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 78 90 78 / 60 40 40 20
MIAMI 90 78 90 78 / 60 40 40 20
NAPLES 87 76 90 76 / 70 40 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1139 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
CLOUD COVER HAS PERSISTED ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING...AS WELL AS
PREVENTED WINDS FROM INCREASING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE LOOP
INDICATES THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO THIN AND EXPECT THEM TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAPIDLY
RECOVER AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE FULL MIXING IS REACHED BY MID
AFTERNOON.
ALSO TOOK THE OPPORTUNITY TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SATURDAY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND ENOUGH MIXING HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS FROM NARROWING. SO REMOVED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING. WHAT PRECIPITATION THERE WAS HAS FINALLY ENDED SO WILL
NOT NEED TO EXTEND ANY CHANCES INTO THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...HOW HOT DOES IT GET/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
SATURDAY...AND WINDS/HOW COOL DOES IT GET/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STILL A TROUGH...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE...AND TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT JET LEVEL WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY BETTER.
AT MID LEVELS...WOULD HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO THE GFS SINCE IT IS
DOING THE BEST WITH DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ECMWF
FOLLOWED BY THE NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE
WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. ECMWF WAS ESPECIALLY DOING WELL WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH POSITION OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION REMAINED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVED FURTHER EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER/NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN GOVERNED BY MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES. MOST MODEL OUTPUT...EVEN THE HRRR AND RUC...HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE FOR AS A LONG AS POSSIBLE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION/DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE AROUND...MAY
AFFECT THE EXTENT OF THE FOG AS WELL.
MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR UPSTREAM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
REMAINS WELL WEST. WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR
WEST. GRADIENT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS BREEZY TO WINDY. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. NWP IS THE COOLEST
GUIDANCE OF THE BUNCH WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING WARMER
TEMPERATURES. ALL DEPENDS HOW FAST DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION LASTS PLUS WHEN WHATEVER STRATUS DEVELOPS ALSO
BURNS OFF. DID TONE DOWN MAXES IN THE WEST A FEW DEGREES BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD COVER AND MADE THE EAST THE WARMEST.
SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT ON MAX TEMPERATURES AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE HANDLING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. HOWEVER DUE TO UPSTREAM RIDGING AND
NCEP DISCUSSIONS...DO BELIEVE THAT SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH AND MAYBE EVEN SLOWER. THERE LOOKS TO BE STRONGER MID/UPPER
RIDGING BUT THE LEE TROUGH MAYBE FURTHER WEST WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE WINDS. BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS THIS THE BEST
AT THIS TIME. ABOVE REASONING...850 TO 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND
BLENDING OF VARIOUS NWP/2M GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. REFER BELOW FOR
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
WE LOOK TO STAY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST +15C.
ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HOT...AN ISOLATED UPDRAFT IS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE EARLIER GUIDANCE PER EXPLANATION GIVEN ABOVE.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z AND THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE LOOKS NOW TO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...
IT STILL LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CINH.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. RATHER
IMPRESSIVE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OCCUR AND A BRIEFLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AS WELL. IF THIS WERE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WOULD SAY THAT
THERE WOULD BE A DECENT CHANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE A RAPID/BRIEF BURST OF WINDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
SOME DECREASE IN THE WINDS BY 18Z.
EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCE IN MODEL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE EARLIER
GUIDANCE WITH A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT WITH TONIGHTS LATER GUIDANCE.
NAM IS BY FAR THE COOLEST. FRONT LOOKS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY
18Z. BASED ON THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND THE COLD AIR I SEE
BEHIND IT UPSTREAM...DID TREND THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
EARLY MODEL RUNS FROM THE EVENING HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE NAM BY FAR
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE 06Z NAM MAINTAINED THIS. HOWEVER...
OTHER MODELS NOW HAVE LESS PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE
IT FURTHER SOUTH. SREF AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS AND MAKES SENSE
SINCE THE AREA LOOKS FAR REMOVED FROM THE MAIN LIFT AND
INSTABILITY. SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ABOVE REASONING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE NORTH
OF THIS FRONT AND WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CWA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS...MAY
SEE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THE GFS BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHERN TRACK
WOULD PLACE THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT OVERALL
FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AT KGLD THROUGH ABOUT 19Z AND REACH
VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH LOSS OF
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING. VFR EXPECTED AT KMCK THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SCATTERED MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT AT EITHER LOCATION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER/PM
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1211 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THIS MORNING:
ALL IS NOT QUIET ON THE WESTERN KANSAS FRONT. HAVE TWO FORECAST CONCERNS
THAT HAVE STARTED TO APPEAR/TREND ON A WSR-88D MOSAIC MAP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE COLORADO & THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THOSE TWO SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FOG AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE TAKING THE "LONG WAY" (AKA ADVECTION) ACROSS THE HIGH TEXAS PLAINS
WHEREAS DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ARE LOWER
(MID TO UPPER 50S DEG F VERSUS AROUND 60 DEG F TOWARDS KDHT). NAM BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND BUFKIT FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P`S SUGGEST
THAT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE
BORDER. SREF VISIBILITY PROGS ALSO SUGGEST HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR HAS BACKED
OFF ON FOG IN RECENT RUNS SO THIS MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN TERMS
OF AERIAL COVERAGE. THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE.
SECOND CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ROUGHLY
WEST OF DODGE CITY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL RUNS FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST
DECENT COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY/QPF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CAUSED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 800 TO 700 HPA LAYER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS AS A RESULT. BOTH
CORES OF THE WRF ARE ALSO SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
TODAY:
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE ON THE BANAL SIDE.
THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TYPICALLY DOES DURING THE
DAY. MIXING ROUGHLY TO 750 HPA AND RESULTANT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWNWARD
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 80S DEG F). AFTER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
CLEARS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...HAVE MID 60S DEG F IN THE GRIDS. A LACK OF SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE
PERTURBATIONS/500 HPA RIDGING/WEAK JET DYNAMICS DURING THE EVENING WILL
RESULT IN 0 PERCENT POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE START OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE WARM AND WINDY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND +14 TO +16C 700MB TEMPERATURES SPREADS EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY
SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE FURTHER EAST 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 20S. 25C 850 MB TEMPERATURE MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS STILL YIELDED HIGHS
AROUND 90 DEGREES SO THE BASED ON THE NEW 850-700MB TEMPERATURES
AT 00Z SUNDAY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE DAY.
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
NOW FORECAST BY THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS STILL
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS/NEAR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS BUT
MID LEVELS WILL BE COOLING BY 00Z MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. BASED ON THIS COOLING, LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND MOISTURE/FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WILL INTRODUCE CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY LATE SUNDAY AND
THEN EXPAND CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY
EVENING RANGES FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 30 TO 40
KNOTS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IT DOES APPEAR THEY WILL HAVE
TO POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BY LATE DAY. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT NOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED A FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS RUN. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET HOWEVER SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE FURTHER GFS SUGGESTED. AS A RESULT WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE WARMER CONSALL MOS AND 850MB 00Z MONDAY ECMWF TEMPERATURES AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. HIGHS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ONLY TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PERSIST
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BASED ON 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION, 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A
GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE 850MB MOISTURE AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT I310
AND I315 LEVELS HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS LATE DAY.
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE WESTERLY
FLOW MID TO LATE WEEK. EACH OF THESE WAVES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THEY
PASS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING, TRACK
OR STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE FEATURES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE
LATER PERIODS.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK STILL LOOK TO BE MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S EACH DAY. CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK MAY
HOLD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THE 850MB MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS TODAY AS A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME BY
SUNSET BUT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AGAIN TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY, DEPENDING ON SURFACE
WIND CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING
AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 65 93 67 / 10 0 10 10
GCK 88 65 97 67 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 87 65 99 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 87 65 97 66 / 30 0 10 0
HYS 88 66 94 69 / 10 0 10 10
P28 89 66 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
546 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND ENOUGH MIXING HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS FROM NARROWING. SO REMOVED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING. WHAT PRECIPITATION THERE WAS HAS FINALLY ENDED SO WILL
NOT NEED TO EXTEND ANY CHANCES INTO THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...HOW HOT DOES IT GET/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
SATURDAY...AND WINDS/HOW COOL DOES IT GET/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STILL A TROUGH...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE...AND TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT JET LEVEL WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY BETTER.
AT MID LEVELS...WOULD HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO THE GFS SINCE IT IS
DOING THE BEST WITH DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ECMWF
FOLLOWED BY THE NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE
WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. ECMWF WAS ESPECIALLY DOING WELL WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH POSITION OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION REMAINED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVED FURTHER EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER/NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN GOVERNED BY MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES. MOST MODEL OUTPUT...EVEN THE HRRR AND RUC...HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE FOR AS A LONG AS POSSIBLE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION/DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE AROUND...MAY
AFFECT THE EXTENT OF THE FOG AS WELL.
MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR UPSTREAM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
REMAINS WELL WEST. WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR
WEST. GRADIENT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS BREEZY TO WINDY. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. NWP IS THE COOLEST
GUIDANCE OF THE BUNCH WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING WARMER
TEMPERATURES. ALL DEPENDS HOW FAST DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION LASTS PLUS WHEN WHATEVER STRATUS DEVELOPS ALSO
BURNS OFF. DID TONE DOWN MAXES IN THE WEST A FEW DEGREES BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD COVER AND MADE THE EAST THE WARMEST.
SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT ON MAX TEMPERATURES AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE HANDLING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. HOWEVER DUE TO UPSTREAM RIDGING AND
NCEP DISCUSSIONS...DO BELIEVE THAT SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH AND MAYBE EVEN SLOWER. THERE LOOKS TO BE STRONGER MID/UPPER
RIDGING BUT THE LEE TROUGH MAYBE FURTHER WEST WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE WINDS. BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS THIS THE BEST
AT THIS TIME. ABOVE REASONING...850 TO 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND
BLENDING OF VARIOUS NWP/2M GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. REFER BELOW FOR
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
WE LOOK TO STAY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST +15C.
ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HOT...AN ISOLATED UPDRAFT IS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE EARLIER GUIDANCE PER EXPLANATION GIVEN ABOVE.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z AND THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE LOOKS NOW TO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...
IT STILL LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CINH.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. RATHER
IMPRESSIVE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OCCUR AND A BRIEFLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AS WELL. IF THIS WERE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WOULD SAY THAT
THERE WOULD BE A DECENT CHANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE A RAPID/BRIEF BURST OF WINDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
SOME DECREASE IN THE WINDS BY 18Z.
EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCE IN MODEL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE EARLIER
GUIDANCE WITH A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT WITH TONIGHTS LATER GUIDANCE.
NAM IS BY FAR THE COOLEST. FRONT LOOKS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY
18Z. BASED ON THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND THE COLD AIR I SEE
BEHIND IT UPSTREAM...DID TREND THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
EARLY MODEL RUNS FROM THE EVENING HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE NAM BY FAR
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE 06Z NAM MAINTAINED THIS. HOWEVER...
OTHER MODELS NOW HAVE LESS PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE
IT FURTHER SOUTH. SREF AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS AND MAKES SENSE
SINCE THE AREA LOOKS FAR REMOVED FROM THE MAIN LIFT AND
INSTABILITY. SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ABOVE REASONING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE NORTH
OF THIS FRONT AND WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CWA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS...MAY
SEE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THE GFS BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHERN TRACK
WOULD PLACE THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT OVERALL
FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS CONTINUED
HEATING TAKES PLACE...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WHATEVER THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP THEY LOOK TO STAY TO THE WEST OF BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
PER REASONING ABOVE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE
TROUGH COULD BE FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD MAKE LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. IF ECMWF WORKS OUT THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WOULD BE WEAK
ALONG WITH THE WINDS AS WELL. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE RATHER
LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED TO OUR WEST WHICH MAY CAUSE
DEWPOINTS TO BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AT THIS TIME CHOSE
TO NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IF
HAD TO WOULD SAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONDITIONS TO BE MET WOULD
OVER THE COLORADO PORTION OF OUR AREA. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT IN HWO AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER/PM
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
619 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE 08.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A STRONG 130 KT JET PUSHING ASHORE
ACROSS KMFR (MEDFORD, OR) WITH A WEAKER JET STREAK YET CYCLONICALLY
CURVED FROM KOTX (SPOKANE, WA) NORTHWARD TO CWEG (EDMONTON, AB). DOWNSTREAM,
AN 80 KT JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS CWPL (PICKLE LAKE, ON) AND TURNING INTO
MORE ZONAL FLOW FROM KOHX (NASHVILLE, TN) TO KRNK (BLACKSBURG, VA) TO
KMHX (NEWPORT, NC). AT 500 HPA, COLD AIR OF -26 DEG C TO -23 DEG C EXTENDED
FROM KSLE (SALEM, OR) TO CYZT (PORT HARDY, BC). FAIRLY SEASONAL 500
HPA TEMPERATURES OF -11 TO -10 DEG C EXTENDED FROM KABR (ABERDEEN, SD)
TO KDDC (DODGE CITY, KS). ANOTHER COLD POOL W/ H5 TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND
-21 DEG C TO -19 DEG C WAS OBSERVED ACROSS QUEBEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH. AT 700 & 850 HPA, MOST NOTICEABLE WERE
THE TWO COLD POOLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE CANADA. AT THE
SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S DEG F SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DEG F
WERE TAKING THE LONG WAY BEHIND A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER VIA
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS SW KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THIS MORNING:
ALL IS NOT QUIET ON THE WESTERN KANSAS FRONT. HAVE TWO FORECAST CONCERNS
THAT HAVE STARTED TO APPEAR/TREND ON A WSR-88D MOSAIC MAP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE COLORADO & THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THOSE TWO SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FOG AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE TAKING THE "LONG WAY" (AKA ADVECTION) ACROSS THE HIGH TEXAS PLAINS
WHEREAS DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ARE LOWER
(MID TO UPPER 50S DEG F VERSUS AROUND 60 DEG F TOWARDS KDHT). NAM BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND BUFKIT FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P`S SUGGEST
THAT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE
BORDER. SREF VISIBILITY PROGS ALSO SUGGEST HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR HAS BACKED
OFF ON FOG IN RECENT RUNS SO THIS MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN TERMS
OF AERIAL COVERAGE. THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE.
SECOND CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ROUGHLY
WEST OF DODGE CITY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL RUNS FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST
DECENT COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY/QPF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CAUSED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 800 TO 700 HPA LAYER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS AS A RESULT. BOTH
CORES OF THE WRF ARE ALSO SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
TODAY:
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE ON THE BANAL SIDE.
THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TYPICALLY DOES DURING THE
DAY. MIXING ROUGHLY TO 750 HPA AND RESULTANT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWNWARD
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 80S DEG F). AFTER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
CLEARS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...HAVE MID 60S DEG F IN THE GRIDS. A LACK OF SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE
PERTURBATIONS/500 HPA RIDGING/WEAK JET DYNAMICS DURING THE EVENING WILL
RESULT IN 0 PERCENT POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE START OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE WARM AND WINDY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND +14 TO +16C 700MB TEMPERATURES SPREADS EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY
SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE FURTHER EAST 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 20S. 25C 850 MB TEMPERATURE MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS STILL YIELDED HIGHS
AROUND 90 DEGREES SO THE BASED ON THE NEW 850-700MB TEMPERATURES
AT 00Z SUNDAY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE DAY.
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
NOW FORECAST BY THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS STILL
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS/NEAR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS BUT
MID LEVELS WILL BE COOLING BY 00Z MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. BASED ON THIS COOLING, LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND MOISTURE/FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WILL INTRODUCE CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY LATE SUNDAY AND
THEN EXPAND CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY
EVENING RANGES FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 30 TO 40
KNOTS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IT DOES APPEAR THEY WILL HAVE
TO POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BY LATE DAY. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT NOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED A FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS RUN. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET HOWEVER SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE FURTHER GFS SUGGESTED. AS A RESULT WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE WARMER CONSALL MOS AND 850MB 00Z MONDAY ECMWF TEMPERATURES AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. HIGHS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ONLY TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PERSIST
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BASED ON 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION, 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A
GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE 850MB MOISTURE AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT I310
AND I315 LEVELS HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS LATE DAY.
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE WESTERLY
FLOW MID TO LATE WEEK. EACH OF THESE WAVES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THEY
PASS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING, TRACK
OR STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE FEATURES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE
LATER PERIODS.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK STILL LOOK TO BE MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S EACH DAY. CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK MAY
HOLD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THE 850MB MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AS 25 TO 35 KT WINDS LOCATED NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. VFR CIGS IN THE 7000 TO 10000 FT LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z AS AN AREA OF WEAKENING ELEVATED CONVECTION,
ASSOCIATED WITH 800-700 WAA AND FRONTOGENESIS, CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 65 93 67 / 10 0 10 10
GCK 88 65 97 67 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 87 65 99 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 87 65 97 66 / 30 0 10 0
HYS 88 66 94 69 / 10 0 10 10
P28 89 66 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...HOW HOT DOES IT GET/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
SATURDAY...AND WINDS/HOW COOL DOES IT GET/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STILL A TROUGH...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE...AND TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT JET LEVEL WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY BETTER.
AT MID LEVELS...WOULD HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO THE GFS SINCE IT IS
DOING THE BEST WITH DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ECMWF
FOLLOWED BY THE NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE
WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. ECMWF WAS ESPECIALLY DOING WELL WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH POSITION OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION REMAINED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVED FURTHER EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER/NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN GOVERNED BY MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES. MOST MODEL OUTPUT...EVEN THE HRRR AND RUC...HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE FOR AS A LONG AS POSSIBLE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION/DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE AROUND...MAY
AFFECT THE EXTENT OF THE FOG AS WELL.
MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR UPSTREAM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
REMAINS WELL WEST. WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR
WEST. GRADIENT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS BREEZY TO WINDY. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. NWP IS THE COOLEST
GUIDANCE OF THE BUNCH WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING WARMER
TEMPERATURES. ALL DEPENDS HOW FAST DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION LASTS PLUS WHEN WHATEVER STRATUS DEVELOPS ALSO
BURNS OFF. DID TONE DOWN MAXES IN THE WEST A FEW DEGREES BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD COVER AND MADE THE EAST THE WARMEST.
SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT ON MAX TEMPERATURES AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE HANDLING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. HOWEVER DUE TO UPSTREAM RIDGING AND
NCEP DISCUSSIONS...DO BELIEVE THAT SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH AND MAYBE EVEN SLOWER. THERE LOOKS TO BE STRONGER MID/UPPER
RIDGING BUT THE LEE TROUGH MAYBE FURTHER WEST WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE WINDS. BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS THIS THE BEST
AT THIS TIME. ABOVE REASONING...850 TO 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND
BLENDING OF VARIOUS NWP/2M GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. REFER BELOW FOR
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
WE LOOK TO STAY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST +15C.
ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HOT...AN ISOLATED UPDRAFT IS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE EARLIER GUIDANCE PER EXPLANATION GIVEN ABOVE.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z AND THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE LOOKS NOW TO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...
IT STILL LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CINH.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. RATHER
IMPRESSIVE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OCCUR AND A BRIEFLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AS WELL. IF THIS WERE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WOULD SAY THAT
THERE WOULD BE A DECENT CHANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE A RAPID/BRIEF BURST OF WINDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
SOME DECREASE IN THE WINDS BY 18Z.
EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCE IN MODEL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE EARLIER
GUIDANCE WITH A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT WITH TONIGHTS LATER GUIDANCE.
NAM IS BY FAR THE COOLEST. FRONT LOOKS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY
18Z. BASED ON THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND THE COLD AIR I SEE
BEHIND IT UPSTREAM...DID TREND THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
EARLY MODEL RUNS FROM THE EVENING HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE NAM BY FAR
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE 06Z NAM MAINTAINED THIS. HOWEVER...
OTHER MODELS NOW HAVE LESS PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE
IT FURTHER SOUTH. SREF AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS AND MAKES SENSE
SINCE THE AREA LOOKS FAR REMOVED FROM THE MAIN LIFT AND
INSTABILITY. SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ABOVE REASONING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE NORTH
OF THIS FRONT AND WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CWA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS...MAY
SEE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THE GFS BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHERN TRACK
WOULD PLACE THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT OVERALL
FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS AT KGLD...HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS
WITH BEST CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO HAVE STRUGGLED TO
MOVE VERY FAR EAST...WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR REMAINING WEST OF THE
KS/CO STATE LINE. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT SHIFT NORTH WITH A STABLE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT...SO DO NOT CURRENTLY PLAN
ON INCLUDING PRECIP MENTION IN TAFS. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS
AT KMCK EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
PER REASONING ABOVE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE
TROUGH COULD BE FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD MAKE LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. IF ECMWF WORKS OUT THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WOULD BE WEAK
ALONG WITH THE WINDS AS WELL. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE RATHER
LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED TO OUR WEST WHICH MAY CAUSE
DEWPOINTS TO BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AT THIS TIME CHOSE
TO NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IF
HAD TO WOULD SAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONDITIONS TO BE MET WOULD
OVER THE COLORADO PORTION OF OUR AREA. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT IN HWO AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER/PM
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE 08.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A STRONG 130 KT JET PUSHING ASHORE
ACROSS KMFR (MEDFORD, OR) WITH A WEAKER JET STREAK YET CYCLONICALLY
CURVED FROM KOTX (SPOKANE, WA) NORTHWARD TO CWEG (EDMONTON, AB). DOWNSTREAM,
AN 80 KT JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS CWPL (PICKLE LAKE, ON) AND TURNING INTO
MORE ZONAL FLOW FROM KOHX (NASHVILLE, TN) TO KRNK (BLACKSBURG, VA) TO
KMHX (NEWPORT, NC). AT 500 HPA, COLD AIR OF -26 DEG C TO -23 DEG C EXTENDED
FROM KSLE (SALEM, OR) TO CYZT (PORT HARDY, BC). FAIRLY SEASONAL 500
HPA TEMPERATURES OF -11 TO -10 DEG C EXTENDED FROM KABR (ABERDEEN, SD)
TO KDDC (DODGE CITY, KS). ANOTHER COLD POOL W/ H5 TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND
-21 DEG C TO -19 DEG C WAS OBSERVED ACROSS QUEBEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH. AT 700 & 850 HPA, MOST NOTICEABLE WERE
THE TWO COLD POOLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE CANADA. AT THE
SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S DEG F SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DEG F
WERE TAKING THE LONG WAY BEHIND A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER VIA
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS SW KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THIS MORNING:
ALL IS NOT QUIET ON THE WESTERN KANSAS FRONT. HAVE TWO FORECAST CONCERNS
THAT HAVE STARTED TO APPEAR/TREND ON A WSR-88D MOSAIC MAP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE COLORADO & THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THOSE TWO SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FOG AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE TAKING THE "LONG WAY" (AKA ADVECTION) ACROSS THE HIGH TEXAS PLAINS
WHEREAS DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ARE LOWER
(MID TO UPPER 50S DEG F VERSUS AROUND 60 DEG F TOWARDS KDHT). NAM BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND BUFKIT FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P`S SUGGEST
THAT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE
BORDER. SREF VISIBILITY PROGS ALSO SUGGEST HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR HAS BACKED
OFF ON FOG IN RECENT RUNS SO THIS MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN TERMS
OF AERIAL COVERAGE. THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE.
SECOND CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ROUGHLY
WEST OF DODGE CITY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL RUNS FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST
DECENT COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY/QPF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CAUSED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 800 TO 700 HPA LAYER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS AS A RESULT. BOTH
CORES OF THE WRF ARE ALSO SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
TODAY:
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE ON THE BANAL SIDE.
THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TYPICALLY DOES DURING THE
DAY. MIXING ROUGHLY TO 750 HPA AND RESULTANT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWNWARD
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 80S DEG F). AFTER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
CLEARS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...HAVE MID 60S DEG F IN THE GRIDS. A LACK OF SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE
PERTURBATIONS/500 HPA RIDGING/WEAK JET DYNAMICS DURING THE EVENING WILL
RESULT IN 0 PERCENT POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE START OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE WARM AND WINDY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND +14 TO +16C 700MB TEMPERATURES SPREADS EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY
SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE FURTHER EAST 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 20S. 25C 850 MB TEMPERATURE MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS STILL YIELDED HIGHS
AROUND 90 DEGREES SO THE BASED ON THE NEW 850-700MB TEMPERATURES
AT 00Z SUNDAY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE DAY.
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
NOW FORECAST BY THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS STILL
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS/NEAR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS BUT
MID LEVELS WILL BE COOLING BY 00Z MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. BASED ON THIS COOLING, LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND MOISTURE/FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WILL INTRODUCE CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY LATE SUNDAY AND
THEN EXPAND CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY
EVENING RANGES FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 30 TO 40
KNOTS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IT DOES APPEAR THEY WILL HAVE
TO POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BY LATE DAY. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT NOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED A FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS RUN. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET HOWEVER SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE FURTHER GFS SUGGESTED. AS A RESULT WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE WARMER CONSALL MOS AND 850MB 00Z MONDAY ECMWF TEMPERATURES AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. HIGHS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ONLY TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PERSIST
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BASED ON 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION, 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A
GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE 850MB MOISTURE AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT I310
AND I315 LEVELS HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS LATE DAY.
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE WESTERLY
FLOW MID TO LATE WEEK. EACH OF THESE WAVES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THEY
PASS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING, TRACK
OR STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE FEATURES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE
LATER PERIODS.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK STILL LOOK TO BE MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S EACH DAY. CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK MAY
HOLD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THE 850MB MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
A FORECAST CONUNDRUM EXISTS FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WELL TWO. FOG AND CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. FIRST FOR THE FOG, BUFKIT PROFILES AND MOS GUIDANCE IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS TAKING THE LONG
WAY UP FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF COMING DIRECTLY FROM OKLAHOMA.
IN FACT, TD`S ARE LOWER ACROSS THE SOONER STATE THAN LAST NIGHT. AS
A RESULT, AND AFTER CHECKING SREF/HRRR, I HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE FOG
FROM THE TAFS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO STAY NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. SECONDLY, THE 01Z HRRR IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH 800-700 HPA WAA/FRONTOGENESIS THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS BEFORE INSERTING IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 18-23 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 65 93 67 / 20 0 10 10
GCK 88 65 97 67 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 87 65 99 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 87 65 97 66 / 20 0 10 0
HYS 88 66 94 69 / 10 0 10 10
P28 89 66 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE 08.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A STRONG 130 KT JET PUSHING ASHORE
ACROSS KMFR (MEDFORD, OR) WITH A WEAKER JET STREAK YET CYCLONICALLY
CURVED FROM KOTX (SPOKANE, WA) NORTHWARD TO CWEG (EDMONTON, AB). DOWNSTREAM,
AN 80 KT JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS CWPL (PICKLE LAKE, ON) AND TURNING INTO
MORE ZONAL FLOW FROM KOHX (NASHVILLE, TN) TO KRNK (BLACKSBURG, VA) TO
KMHX (NEWPORT, NC). AT 500 HPA, COLD AIR OF -26 DEG C TO -23 DEG C EXTENDED
FROM KSLE (SALEM, OR) TO CYZT (PORT HARDY, BC). FAIRLY SEASONAL 500
HPA TEMPERATURES OF -11 TO -10 DEG C EXTENDED FROM KABR (ABERDEEN, SD)
TO KDDC (DODGE CITY, KS). ANOTHER COLD POOL W/ H5 TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND
-21 DEG C TO -19 DEG C WAS OBSERVED ACROSS QUEBEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH. AT 700 & 850 HPA, MOST NOTICEABLE WERE
THE TWO COLD POOLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE CANADA. AT THE
SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S DEG F SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DEG F
WERE TAKING THE LONG WAY BEHIND A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER VIA
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS SW KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THIS MORNING:
ALL IS NOT QUIET ON THE WESTERN KANSAS FRONT. HAVE TWO FORECAST CONCERNS
THAT HAVE STARTED TO APPEAR/TREND ON A WSR-88D MOSAIC MAP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE COLORADO & THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THOSE TWO SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FOG AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE TAKING THE "LONG WAY" (AKA ADVECTION) ACROSS THE HIGH TEXAS PLAINS
WHEREAS DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ARE LOWER
(MID TO UPPER 50S DEG F VERSUS AROUND 60 DEG F TOWARDS KDHT). NAM BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND BUFKIT FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P`S SUGGEST
THAT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE
BORDER. SREF VISIBILITY PROGS ALSO SUGGEST HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR HAS BACKED
OFF ON FOG IN RECENT RUNS SO THIS MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN TERMS
OF AERIAL COVERAGE. THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE.
SECOND CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ROUGHLY
WEST OF DODGE CITY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL RUNS FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST
DECENT COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY/QPF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CAUSED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 800 TO 700 HPA LAYER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS AS A RESULT. BOTH
CORES OF THE WRF ARE ALSO SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
TODAY:
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE ON THE BANAL SIDE.
THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TYPICALLY DOES DURING THE
DAY. MIXING ROUGHLY TO 750 HPA AND RESULTANT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWNWARD
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 80S DEG F). AFTER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
CLEARS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...HAVE MID 60S DEG F IN THE GRIDS. A LACK OF SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE
PERTURBATIONS/500 HPA RIDGING/WEAK JET DYNAMICS DURING THE EVENING WILL
RESULT IN 0 PERCENT POPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL AID IN THE LEE TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO. WARM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS LIKELY TO PEAK
NEAR 100 OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY.
ANTICIPATE THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SETUP WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
THE END OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
A FORECAST CONUNDRUM EXISTS FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WELL TWO. FOG AND CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. FIRST FOR THE FOG, BUFKIT PROFILES AND MOS GUIDANCE IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS TAKING THE LONG
WAY UP FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF COMING DIRECTLY FROM OKLAHOMA.
IN FACT, TD`S ARE LOWER ACROSS THE SOONER STATE THAN LAST NIGHT. AS
A RESULT, AND AFTER CHECKING SREF/HRRR, I HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE FOG
FROM THE TAFS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO STAY NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. SECONDLY, THE 01Z HRRR IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH 800-700 HPA WAA/FRONTOGENESIS THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS BEFORE INSERTING IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 18-23 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 65 93 67 / 20 0 10 10
GCK 88 65 97 67 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 87 65 99 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 87 65 97 66 / 20 0 10 0
HYS 88 66 94 69 / 10 0 10 10
P28 89 66 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 06Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA DEPICTED THE AXIS OF THE 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH FAR WESTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND UTAH. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED THIS WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...FAIRLY MOIST
AIR WAS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND HAD MANIFEST
ITSELF AS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG.
THE GOING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS DRY FOR TONIGHT
AND DON`T SEE ANY REASON TO CHANGE THAT NOW. THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
PAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SITUATED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WHERE 3000+ J/KG OF CAPE IS INDICATED.
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES CONSIDERABLE FARTHER EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED TO EASTERN COLORADO. IN ADDITION...THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL ARE KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING UP AGAIN TONIGHT
SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN. ANYTHING
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS
A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 50S UP AROUND I-70 IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL AID IN THE LEE TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO. WARM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS LIKELY TO PEAK
NEAR 100 OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY.
ANTICIPATE THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SETUP WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
THE END OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
A FORECAST CONUNDRUM EXISTS FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WELL TWO. FOG AND CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. FIRST FOR THE FOG, BUFKIT PROFILES AND MOS GUIDANCE IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS TAKING THE LONG
WAY UP FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF COMING DIRECTLY FROM OKLAHOMA.
IN FACT, TD`S ARE LOWER ACROSS THE SOONER STATE THAN LAST NIGHT. AS
A RESULT, AND AFTER CHECKING SREF/HRRR, I HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE FOG
FROM THE TAFS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO STAY NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. SECONDLY, THE 01Z HRRR IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH 800-700 HPA WAA/FRONTOGENESIS THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS BEFORE INSERTING IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 18-23 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 86 65 93 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 61 88 65 97 / 10 10 10 0
EHA 62 87 64 99 / 10 10 10 0
LBL 63 89 65 97 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 57 88 66 94 / 10 10 10 10
P28 60 86 66 90 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
317 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CREATING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON. NEW RUC HAS CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG
BUT CAPE REMAINS SKINNY. SHEAR NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LOW BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FREEZING LEVEL ONLY AROUND 8K, SMALL HAIL
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. HRRR AND RUC MODEL INDICATE THIS FIRST AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BUT IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW OVER 1 INCH SO
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGES APPEARS
TO BE AROUND .25 ACROSS DOWNEAST WITH OVER HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTH BUT AGAIN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY DOWNPOURS.
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS BORDERING NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY DAYS AND
CLEAR MILD NIGHT NIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY. HIGH ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND THEN MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST ON TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE
LATER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS BUT LOWER IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS ACROSS
DOWNEAST BETWEEN 07-12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, FOG WILL KEEP VSBY BELOW 1 NM TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...FOSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1210 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CREATING
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200L: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST MAINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEW RUC HAS CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BUT CAPE REMAINS SKINNY. SHEAR NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE SO STILL EXPECTING THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LOW. PW
OVER 1 INCH SO POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
0930L UPDATE: WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF PISCATAQUIS,,,PENOBSCOT AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 100% FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.
640 AM UPDATE:
A LITTLE PATCH OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY TOWARD PRESQUE ISLE EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
RAISED EARLY MORNING POPS TO 40 PERCENT HERE. TWEAKED AREAS OF FOG
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. FOG WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY INLAND...BUT A BIT SLOWER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MADE SOME OTHER MINOR TWEAKS TO TODAY`S POPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. 11-3.9 FOG CHANNEL
AT 315 AM SHOWING FOG ALONG THE WESTERN DOWNEAST COAST AS WELL AS
BETWEEN BANGOR AND HOULTON. EXPECT THE FOG TO FILL IN A BIT MORE
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO FIRE
LATE THIS MORNING AND AROUND NOON AND BEGIN OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING EAST INTO
THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND
COMING OFF THE OCEAN...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF TODAY`S
CONVECTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED RATHER THAN ELEVATED IN ALL AREAS
EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE COAST. THAT BEING SAID...JUST CANNOT SEE THE
STORMS BEING STRONG OR SEVERE. IF ANYTHING IS TO BECOME
STRONG...IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH WOODS AND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
FOR TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS INTO A STEADIER
RAIN...WITH A DECENT SOAKING OF AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MOST
PLACES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE RAIN GOING LONGER THAN OTHERWISE
WOULD BE THE CASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE NEW LOW WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM12...GFS40....SREF AND ECMWF TO INITIALIZED POP GRIDS THEN HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FOR WIND GRIDS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE NAM12 AND GMOS DURING DAY AND ONLY GMOS AT NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE GMOS AND HAVE INCREASED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES. FOR QPF WILL BLEND THE GFS40 AND NAM12.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND BUILD
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WILL INITIALIZE ALL
GRIDS WITH GMOS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS
MOSTLY FOR SMOOTHING. WILL ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HIGHER BY
SEVERAL DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
FOG OVER MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING KBHB AND KBGR. FOG WILL
BE A BIT SLOWER TO BURN OFF ALONG THE COAST THAN INLAND.
EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ALONG WITH EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY THEN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
LARGE AREA OF FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG TO REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VSBY
LESS THAN 1 NM. CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KT AND
SEAS TO 4 FT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRANSITION TO GMOS WINDS. WILL LOWER WIND
SPEED BY 10 PERCENT. FOR WAVES WILL USE THE WNA/4 TO INITIALIZE
GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 1 FOOT TUESDAY TO BETTER FIT GMOS
WINDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/FOSTER
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FOISY/FOSTER
MARINE...FOISY/FOSTER/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
WV LOOP/RAOBS/RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING NORTH OVER MANITOBA WITH PV ANAMOLY BEGINNING TO ENTER
FAR WEST LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. 925-850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION THAT TRIGGERED MORNING SHRA/SCT TSRA HAS PUSHED INTO
CNTRL CWA AND MERGED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FM MQT-P53-ISQ. CLUSTER OF
TSRA OVR DELTA COUNTY MOST ACTIVE LAST HR IS WITHIN AXIS OF SFC
BASED CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 40 KTS. A
COUPLE OF STORMS MAY HAVE PRODUCED SMALL HAIL...BUT OTHERWISE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN THE MAIN HAZARDS. EVEN
THOUGH THESE SHRA/TSRA ARE PINNED TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE THEY
WILL LIKELY GET SWEPT UP IN THE LARGER SCALE 925-850MB TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION REGIME AND EDGE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. FARTHER WEST...THUS
FAR THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA FORMING OVR WCNTRL
WISCONSIN ON EDGE OF DPVA JUST AHEAD OF PV ANAOMLY. SUSPECT THIS IS
DUE TO MID-LEVEL WARMING ON 12Z GRB SOUNDING. RUC AND NAM INDICATED
ONLY FURTHER WARMING WOULD OCCUR THIS AFTN AND THAT SHOWS UP WITH
RAP SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY MOIST
ADIABATIC OVR WCNTRL WI. WILL NEED TO KEEP FOCUS JUST SW OF CWA
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT OVER FAR NCNTRL CWA INTO THE EASTERN CWA CLOSER
TO 925-850MB WARM FRONT.
TWEAKED POPS TO INDICATE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF WHERE CURRENT CONVECTION IS ONGOING. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
MOVE THE HIGHER POPS OUT OF THE KEWEENAW AND MOST OF BARAGA AND
MARQUETTE COUNTIES. YET STILL CANNOT COUNT OUT SOME SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA OVR WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING SINCE THE
SHORTWAVE IS RIDING THROUGH AND INTERACTING WITH MOIST AIRMASS.
EXPECT SHORTWAVE TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA
OVR CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT AS FORCING SLACKENS AND LOW-LEVEL SFC TROUGH AND H85 WARM
FRONT LIFT NORTH OF CWA. WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS PRESENT IN THE
EVENING CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR WILL HAVE RISK OF SOME FOG. WEBCAMS
SHOWED FOG DRIFTING INTO VCNTY OF MQT THIS AFTN...BUT BETTER CHANCE
OF FOG TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ON THE KEWEENAW MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITH SE GRADIENT WIND. HIGHER DWPNTS AND SOME WIND IN THE WARM
SECTOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD RESTRICT TEMPS FM FALLING MUCH
BLO 60F IN MOST AREAS.
WARM FRONT NORTH OF CWA ON SATURDAY...BUT GRADIENT IS NOT THAT
STRONG. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MAINTAIN IDEA OF LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVR MAINLY CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA BY
MIDDAY. MLCAPES COULD END UP FAIRLY HIGH AS MIXING IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD ONLY LOWER DWPNTS INTO THE MID-UPR 50S AT THE
LOWEST. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AROUND WILL LIKELY SEE DWPNTS MOST
SPOTS HOVER AROUND 60F MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM MARKEDLY
ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR OVR WESTERN CWA. NAM/GFS AVERAGE FOR
H85 TEMPS SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOCALLY NEAR 90F IN ISOLD LOCATIONS. RESULTING MLCAPES EASILY PUSH
PAST 1000J/KG WITH MINIMAL CINH. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
BE MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP CHANCES GOING INLAND
FM THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH AS LAKE
BREEZES CEASE AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL 500 MB TROUGH STAGGERED TO THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE...HELPING TO
AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AXIS
RUNNING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL WI AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION AS MANY OF THE
ISOBARS ARE OPEN TO THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST HELPING TO FOCUS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS MUCH OF MN THROUGH NORTHERN IA. LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S. HAVE KEPT FOG OVER THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WAA OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE...EFFECTIVELY TRAPPING THE MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. FOG
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED TO LATER TIME PERIODS AS WELL
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 500MB AND THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST...REACHING CENTRAL ONTARIO BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW AS WELL AS FRONTAL POSITION AND TIMING. THE GFS/EC MODELS
SHOW THE FRONT OVER WESTERN UPPER MI MONDAY MORNING...PROCEEDING TO
EASTERN UPPER MI BY 00Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA AS MU CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH THE FRONT ACTING AS THE FORCING MECHANISM
TO FOCUS CONVECTION. LOOKING AT A FEW OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 700-800 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 TO 40
KNOTS ALONG THE FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. SHEAR VECTORS AR
EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS FORMING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE. MOST OF
THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE THE QPF VALUES WERE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IN THE GFS GUIDANCE WHICH WAS LIKELY
CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...SO REDUCED THE PRECIPITATION
TOTAL SLIGHTLY USING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE
EC.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS
EASTWARD THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
UPPER PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING...THANKS TO A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS FLOWING ALONG THE
LONG AXIS OF LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO UPPER MI THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHIFTS
TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW...A TROUGH AT
500 MB WILL ALSO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SHIFTED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.P. AS UPPER LEVEL Q-DIVERGENCE IS
COLLOCATED WITH BEST MOISTURE AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING RH FROM 1000MB
TO 500MB. DID NOT PLACE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
AS IT APPEARS AS IF CAPE WOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES REMAINING FARTHER WEST OVER MUCH OF MN.
FOR FRIDAY THE BEST MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE SLIDES TO THE
NORTH...MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WILL BE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
A CONVOLUTED FORECAST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
EVOLUTION OF ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR. ALL SITES SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR THROUGH THE
EVENT...EXPECT FOR MVFR CIGS AND VIS AT CMX THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY STAY
CLEAR OF IWD AS CAP CONTINUES TO HOLD TO THE WEST. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AIDS FORCING...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE
COVERAGE OF TS. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF CMX
AND SAW TAFS UNLESS IT BECOMES CLEAR TS WILL BE MORE THAN JUST
ISOLATED. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THANKS TO A STABLE MARINE LAYER...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE LAKE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REACH THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
A WEAK WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER ABOUT THE EAST HALF. INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD ALSO INCREASE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. THERE
WILL BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS THAT WILL AFFECT KINL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
QUITE STRONG...WITH THEM PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
A SECOND FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE CONVERGENT FLOW FROM 925-850MB
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
EVENING. WE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAFS EITHER WITH
VCTS OR A TEMPO GROUP. LATE TONIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OR END WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. WE KEPT LLWS IN THE TAFS AT
BOTH KBRD/KHYR AS SW LLJ DEVELOPS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
UPDATE...
AT 15Z...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MANITOBA...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...AND A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE FA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE
WAS AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THAT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S AND AND LOW 70S...AND
THERE WERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED
WAA EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD INTO NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND WERE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. THERE WERE SOME MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA...TOO.
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF THE FA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...BUT STILL LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE WESTERN THREE FOURTHS OF THE FA. RECENT MODELS HAVE
BEEN BACKING OFF ON PCPN FOR THE FA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM. HOWEVER...DID NOT WANT TO
BACK OFF ON AFTERNOON POPS TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE CLEARING
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT...WHICH MAY HELP DESTABILIZE MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY DUE TO
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE CLOUD COVER TREND AND ITS POTENTIAL TO LIMIT THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
UPDATE...LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL WI ATTM. THIS PCPN IS DIMINISHING AS THE SUN COMES
UP. NOTHING DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS LINE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...07Z SFC PRESSURE PLOT PLACED A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WAS ORGANIZING IN SE MANITOBA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG
THE FRONT WITH RECENT DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF WAA. STORMS ARE ALSO GETTING SUPPORT FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING EVEN
AFTER FROPA AS WAA WILL CONTINUE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF FLATTENS OUT
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY OVER THE
FA WITH GOOD SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H85 COMPUTED LI`S TO -4C
AND MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND ITS AFFECT ON DIURNAL
HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE ZONES/GRIDS. SEE THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FOR DETAILS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AFTER 06Z. MEANWHILE...SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING
THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS
FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS AND IN THE VCNTY OF LLJ CROSS
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD
WHERE AN ADDITIONAL SFC BOUNDARY WILL STALL AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
IN FAR SW ONTARIO. PCPN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z AS LLJ
MOVES OFF TO THE E.
WAA CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING/SPREADING INTO THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STUCK JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN FOR SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER HOT WITH 80S EXPECTED...A BIT COOLER ALONG THE N
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR CKC/GNA.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A POTENT UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND
COMBINE WITH A SFC COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN ND. A STRONG 850MB LLJ...ROUGHLY 50
KTS...WILL ADVECT IN A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN MN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
EWD...THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXES. MAINLY ALONG A PATH JUST SOUTH OR
PARALLEL TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NRN MN. AREAS TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED AS A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EWD DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH N-CENTRAL MN...AND MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG...0-6 KM AGL BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KT...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PWATS OVER
1.5 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID/STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW LIGHT COLD
ADVECTION SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES MONDAY.
SO...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN CHC/SLGT CHC POPS DURING THE DAY AND INTO
MON NIGHT. A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCES DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
NW WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY
WARM...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 80S...AND EVEN A FEW LOW 90S. ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
TEMPS ON TUES AND WED ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS FORECAST GOING INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 59 82 60 84 / 20 10 10 30
INL 56 87 63 83 / 10 10 20 50
BRD 64 89 69 87 / 10 10 10 50
HYR 62 85 63 88 / 20 10 10 20
ASX 61 85 61 87 / 40 10 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1003 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
AT 15Z...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MANITOBA...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...AND A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE FA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE
WAS AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THAT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S AND AND LOW 70S...AND
THERE WERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED
WAA EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD INTO NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND WERE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. THERE WERE SOME MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA...TOO.
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF THE FA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...BUT STILL LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE WESTERN THREE FOURTHS OF THE FA. RECENT MODELS HAVE
BEEN BACKING OFF ON PCPN FOR THE FA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM. HOWEVER...DID NOT WANT TO
BACK OFF ON AFTERNOON POPS TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE CLEARING
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT...WHICH MAY HELP DESTABILIZE MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY DUE TO
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE CLOUD COVER TREND AND ITS POTENTIAL TO LIMIT THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
UPDATE...LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL WI ATTM. THIS PCPN IS DIMINISHING AS THE SUN COMES
UP. NOTHING DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS LINE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION DRY AND UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND ADVECT IN A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND MOVE EWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVE NE LATE THIS EVENING AND SKIES SCATTER OUT BY EARLY SAT
MORNING. LLWS WILL DEVELOP FROM BRD TO DLH TO HYR TONIGHT AS A
STRONG LLJ INITIATES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...07Z SFC PRESSURE PLOT PLACED A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WAS ORGANIZING IN SE MANITOBA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG
THE FRONT WITH RECENT DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF WAA. STORMS ARE ALSO GETTING SUPPORT FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING EVEN
AFTER FROPA AS WAA WILL CONTINUE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF FLATTENS OUT
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY OVER THE
FA WITH GOOD SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H85 COMPUTED LI`S TO -4C
AND MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND ITS AFFECT ON DIURNAL
HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE ZONES/GRIDS. SEE THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FOR DETAILS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AFTER 06Z. MEANWHILE...SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING
THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS
FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS AND IN THE VCNTY OF LLJ CROSS
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD
WHERE AN ADDITIONAL SFC BOUNDARY WILL STALL AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
IN FAR SW ONTARIO. PCPN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z AS LLJ
MOVES OFF TO THE E.
WAA CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING/SPREADING INTO THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STUCK JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN FOR SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER HOT WITH 80S EXPECTED...A BIT COOLER ALONG THE N
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR CKC/GNA.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A POTENT UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND
COMBINE WITH A SFC COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN ND. A STRONG 850MB LLJ...ROUGHLY 50
KTS...WILL ADVECT IN A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN MN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
EWD...THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXES. MAINLY ALONG A PATH JUST SOUTH OR
PARALLEL TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NRN MN. AREAS TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED AS A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EWD DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH N-CENTRAL MN...AND MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG...0-6 KM AGL BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KT...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PWATS OVER
1.5 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID/STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW LIGHT COLD
ADVECTION SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES MONDAY.
SO...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN CHC/SLGT CHC POPS DURING THE DAY AND INTO
MON NIGHT. A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCES DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
NW WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY
WARM...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 80S...AND EVEN A FEW LOW 90S. ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
TEMPS ON TUES AND WED ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS FORECAST GOING INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 77 59 82 60 / 60 20 10 10
INL 80 56 87 63 / 60 10 10 30
BRD 85 64 89 69 / 20 10 10 10
HYR 84 62 85 63 / 50 10 10 10
ASX 80 61 85 61 / 60 20 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM....MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION INSERTED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 254 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
THINGS HAVE NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS AND CONCERNS IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... IN THE SHORTER TERM
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CONVECTION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTS OVER THE THE REGION WITH SOME
ELEVATED CAPE STILL IN PLACE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST
FLATTENS AND IS KICKED EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
WE SHOULD SEE THE MAIN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE GET DISPLACED TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT... WITH WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO WORK IN AT
LOW LEVELS. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY PCPN TO END TONIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR A DRY SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
ONE ANOTHER TO SOME EXTENT... WITH SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES STILL
EVIDENT BEYOND MONDAY... ALTHOUGH LESS THAN WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND MAINLY
JUST BLEND WITH THE LATEST MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS THAT BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW
AGREE ON A SOMEWHAT SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION... BOTH
WOULD IMPLY BETTER AND MORE FOCUSED LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA AS A STRONG UPPER JET WRAPS AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
FOR TODAY... CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWFA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD WARM
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E
PROGS SHOW CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR ESSENTIALLY THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... ALTHOUGH UNTIL SUNDAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
IS THE ONLY TIME FRAME WHEN IT LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH SOME LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND SATURATION NEAR THE LFC. THE WARM SECTOR REALLY
SURGES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY... AND TEMPERATURES AOA
90 DEGREES STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH
SOME MID 90S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF
MIXING. WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA WE SHOULDN/T HAVE ANY PCPN TO WORRY ABOUT... AND ANY DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST BASED UPON EXPECTED MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY... SO SOME FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM TEMPERATURES... WITH MAY HELP KEEP IT FROM
FEELING TOO UNCOMFORTABLE.
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING... ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARD THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTENSITY A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY
SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE
QUITE JUICY... WITH PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH AOA 1500 J/KG AND QUITE POSSIBLY ABV 2500 J/KG. THE BEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STARTING TO ARRIVE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA... AND IT APPEARS WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION... PERHAPS INITIALLY AS
SUPERCELLS BUT WITH A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE SEEMING LIKELY
GIVEN A GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CAP THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED TO OUR
NORTH... WHERE WINDS WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BEING
BACKED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER... THERE WOULD STILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR A
TORNADO FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA INITIALLY PRIOR TO ANY
TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION. BUT... THE PRIMARY
THREATS STILL LOOK TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME PCPN MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ALLOWED FOR DRY WEATHER
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHRA DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD POOL LINGER IN THE AREA. THE GFS HAS
QUICKENED ITS DEPARTURE IN COMPARISON TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED ITS DEPARTURE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
EXPECTATION THAT THINGS WOULD MAINLY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
ONLY A PORTION OF THE AREA... OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR
NOW. HOWEVER... DID BRING BACK A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS WE LOOK TO GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH AND SEE SOME RETURN FLOW SETUP ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
BAND OF SHRA/TSRA JUST EAST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BASICALLY BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE OVER ERN NODAK IS ON ITS WAY TOWARD LAKE OF THE WOODS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...DO NOT FEEL CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIP THE REST OF
THIS TAF PERIOD ARE VERY GOOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH WEAK
LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORECAST BY THE RAP TO MOVE ACROSS MN THIS
MORNING. THE RAP...ALONG WITH THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH GENERATING SOME SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH
RADAR RETURNS NOW VIRTUALLY GONE ACROSS ERN SODAK...FEEL MODELS
ARE OVERDOING IT A BIT...SO ADVERTISING DRY TAFS EVERYWHERE. FOR
WINDS...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR FOR DIRECTIONS...WHICH IS
10-30 DEGREES MORE VEERED THAN LAMP GUIDANCE...BUT WITH VERY
SIMILAR SPEEDS...WITH GUSTS SNEAKING INTO THE 20S STILL LOOKING
LIKELY. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL HAVE BACKED MORE
TOWARD THE SOUTH...WITH CLOUD COVER OF ANY TYPE BASICALLY GONE.
KMSP...IF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WERE TO IMPACT THE FIELD...WOULD BE
IN THE 15-20Z TIME FRAME...BUT WITH LACK OF RADAR RETURNS AND
VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS BELOW 12K FT OUT WEST...KEPT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP OUT. WOULD PUT CHANCE OF SHRA AT 20 PERCENT AT BEST 15-20Z.
OTHER THAN THAT...MAIN ISSUE WILL DEAL WITH WINDS. HRRR IS VEERING
WINDS ALL THE WAY OVER TO 260 BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE PRIMARILY
A CROSS WIND TODAY AND WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON BEING ABLE TO KEEP
THE ACTIVE RUNWAYS ON THE 30S. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS COMING FOR
SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
.SAT...VFR. WINDS SSW 10-15KTS GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
.SUN...TSRA LIKELY IN THE EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS SW 15-20 KTS GUSTS
25-30 KTS.
.MON...VFR. WINDS WSW 10-15 KTS
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JVM/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1236 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AND CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONTINENT... WITH A PROGRESSIVELY NARROWING SHARP RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA... BRACKETED BY A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONTINENT AND A SECOND UPPER LOW PUSHING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GENERAL THEME OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO BE DISSOLVE TO SOME
EXTENT AS IT BROADENS AND PUSHES EAST WHILE DISPLACING THE EASTERN
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL WORK THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST DURING THAT TIME... AND EVENTUALLY EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY MONDAY... BRINGING OUR CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL.. THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO
RELAX AND BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE COURSE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE SPEED WITH WHICH IS DOES SO IS UNCERTAIN
GIVEN A FAIR DEGREE OF DIFFERENCE IN THE GFS... ECMWF... AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS HOLDING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER LOW
IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS MUCH LONGER THAN THE
ECMWF... WHICH RIDES IT NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY FAIRLY QUICKLY.
FOR NOW... WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST... WHICH MEANS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER
PERIODS BEYOND MONDAY IS FAIRLY LOW. TEND TO PREFER THE SOMEWHAT
FASTER FRONTAL ARRIVAL ADVERTISED BY THE GFS... NAM... AND SREF ON
SUNDAY IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF GIVEN THE STRONG JET CURRENTLY
PUSHING ONSHORE OUT WEST AND THE SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH
TO OUR EAST WHICH IS ALREADY STARTING TO APPEAR.
FOR TONIGHT... MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN CWFA... WITH THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUING TO
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SHIFT
NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT... BUT WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME ACTIVITY BEFORE THAT OCCURS WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG REMAINING IN PLACE AND SOME HIGHER RH VALUES NEAR THE
ELEVATED LFC FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN NEAR
THAT AREA OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... SO KEPT
SOME POPS IN FOR THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... BY SATURDAY
WE SHOULD SEE THE WARM SECTOR REALLY WORK INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA... WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER...
WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S THROUGH THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GETTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED EAST BY THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE EVOLUTION AND
EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION... WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM...
GFS... AND ECMWF. HOWEVER... ALL SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE A FAIR
DEGREE TO OUR NORTHWEST... MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING... WITH ITS ATTENDANCE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION
STANDPOINT... THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE TO OUR NORTH... BUT GIVEN TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WE SHOULD HAVE AMPLE MLCAPE IN PLACE
WITH VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG... AS WELL AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS WE WORK INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIMITED HOWEVER... GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND WARM FRONT SO FAR TO OUR NORTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST... AT THIS
POINT... THAT OUR MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE DETAILS
SHOULD CERTAINLY COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY MORNING... WITH PERHAPS SOME SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
COLD POOL PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE DEGREE TO WHICH
THAT OCCURS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON WHETHER REALITY WINDS UP MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS OR ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS... WHICH IS SLOWER
TO KICK THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST... WOULD CERTAINLY SUGGEST
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS WELL OUT OF THE AREA AT THAT POINT... AND
WOULD HAVE COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER FOR US. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...
DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT RATHER
THAN INCLUDE A CHANCE MENTION FOR SOMETHING ON DAY SIX. DID
INCLUDE A MENTION FROM LATER WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY BY
THURSDAY... AS THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS THAT WE WOULD START TO
SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION BY THAT POINT.
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
OUTSIDE OF WEST CENTRAL WI...JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN WI...BUT SHOULD
LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE. VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
KMSP...VFR EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AIRPORT. MUCH STRONGER S-SW WINDS
EXPECTED BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
TRH/CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
937 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS YIELDING A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF STORMS
OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS EVENING...BUT WITH 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES ONLY AROUND 6 DEG C/KM...BUOYANCY HAS BEEN LIMITED. THE LACK
OF MUCAPE IS THUS PROVING DETRIMENTAL TO ANYTHING MORE THAN A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. WE DID...HOWEVER...INCREASE THE
POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM BROADUS TO BAKER UNTIL 06 UTC
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST RAP AND 00 UTC NAM. WE EXPECT
THE FORCING FROM FRONTOGENESIS TO GRADUALLY EASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...
SO POPS WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE LATTER PARTS
OF THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT...WE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY RIGHT THROUGH 18 UTC ON
SUN. IN FACT...THE ONLY REASON WE KEPT ANY CHANCE AT ALL IN PLACES
LIKE BILLINGS WAS OUT OF RESPECT FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WE STILL
ARE NOT SURE THAT A WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR LIVINGSTON AND BIG
TIMBER ON SUN BECAUSE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY HAVE A MAX WIND NEAR
40 KT IN THE MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...ALL THE MOS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR
LIVINGSTON SHOWS ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...SO A HEADLINE MAY BE
NEEDED WITH THE 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW TO DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE FLOW.
THEREFORE...UNABLE TO RULE OUT OUR TYPICAL JUNE RISK OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE NEXT MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...BACKING OUR FLOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES NEXT WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE DETAILS REGARDING SPEED AND HOW DEEP THIS LOW
WILL DIG BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PAINTING A MORE UNSTABLE
PICTURE FOR THE REGION. WITH THIS SAID...HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL
SPECTRUM INDICATING TEMPERATURES LOOKED TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE LACK OF ANY
PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE/PREFRONTAL WARMING. SINCE GOING FORECAST WAS
AT THE TOP OF THE SPECTRUM...HAVE TRENDED THINGS A BIT COOLER AT
THIS POINT. FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE ABOUT 10
UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. THOSE SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 30 KT. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/064 050/073 049/076 053/080 057/083 057/079 054/074
23/W 33/W 22/T 22/T 22/T 33/T 44/T
LVM 041/057 042/070 041/073 045/077 047/077 047/075 046/069
45/W 32/W 22/T 22/T 33/T 34/T 44/T
HDN 045/067 046/073 050/077 051/081 056/084 056/082 054/076
24/W 43/W 21/B 22/T 22/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 046/067 050/071 050/078 055/081 057/086 058/083 057/077
45/W 63/W 11/B 22/T 22/T 33/T 43/T
4BQ 049/066 047/071 048/077 052/080 056/086 058/083 055/077
83/W 33/W 11/B 22/T 21/B 33/T 34/T
BHK 046/065 047/067 047/074 051/077 057/083 058/082 057/076
84/W 43/W 11/B 22/T 22/T 33/T 43/T
SHR 041/063 043/069 046/073 048/078 052/082 052/080 050/074
53/W 33/W 22/T 22/T 22/T 33/T 34/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
641 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE EVENING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THAT MEANT REDUCING POPS ACROSS A LOT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT LIKE IN BILLINGS...AND FOCUSING THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT. THE CONVECTION THAT FORMED
AROUND BILLINGS THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AFTER MOVING EAST INTO
A MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN TOO MUCH
EASTWARD TRANSLATION TO THE ACTIVITY AROUND LIVINGSTON. THUS...THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF MT COULD LARGELY BE DONE WITH SHOWERS. OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MT...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS INCREASING PER THE 23
UTC RAP AND 18 UTC NAM AND GFS...AND THAT IS BEING REFLECTED BY AN
INCREASE IN STORMS AS OF 00 UTC. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE SUGGESTED A NON-ZERO SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR CARTER COUNTY IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THAT IS NOT UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING THAT
THE 00 UTC RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THAT AREA. SCHULTZ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 245 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012...
COOL AND MOIST PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY. MADE RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS A RESULT.
MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO PROGRESSION OF
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
WRAP AROUND POTENTIAL INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
HIGH POPS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INCREASED CHANCES SLIGHTLY IN THE
EAST FOR SUNDAY. HAVE TRIED TO TAPER BACK POPS IN THE WEST THROUGH
SUNDAY...IN RESPONSE TO EXPECTED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN PLACE
FROM KBIL TO FOOTHILLS...AS SYSTEM DOES LOOK PRETTY WET. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM APPEAR TO BE IN THE BALLPARK...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THOSE NUMBERS. MONDAY DOES LOOK LIKE IT COULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ACCORDING TO THE MIX DOWNS...BUT SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD POTENTIAL FOR WARMUP.
GREATEST CHANGES WERE CONFINED TO WINDS FOR LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS
AROUND KLVM...K6SO...AND THE NEAR FOOTHILLS AROUND 18Z. HAVE
INTRODUCED ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS FOR THE 6HRS SURROUNDING 18Z
SUNDAY...WITH SUB ADVISORY STRENGTH LEADING UP TO AND FOLLOWING
THIS TIME PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAVERING A BIT WITH THE TIMING
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS IN KLVM...BUT HAS BEEN POINTING TO THE HIGH
WIND SIGNATURE FOR SEVERAL RUNS. A HIGH WINDS ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY...BUT WITH CURRENT PROGGED TIMING...HAVE HELD OFF AT
THIS TIME. AAG
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW TO DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE FLOW.
THEREFORE...UNABLE TO RULE OUT OUR TYPICAL JUNE RISK OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE NEXT MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...BACKING OUR FLOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES NEXT WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE DETAILS REGARDING SPEED AND HOW DEEP THIS LOW
WILL DIG BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PAINTING A MORE UNSTABLE
PICTURE FOR THE REGION. WITH THIS SAID...HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL
SPECTRUM INDICATING TEMPERATURES LOOKED TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE LACK OF ANY
PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE/PREFRONTAL WARMING. SINCE GOING FORECAST WAS
AT THE TOP OF THE SPECTRUM...HAVE TRENDED THINGS A BIT COOLER AT
THIS POINT. FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOCAL WINDY CONDITIONS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. FRIEDERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/064 050/073 049/076 053/080 057/083 057/079 054/074
33/W 33/W 22/T 22/T 22/T 33/T 44/T
LVM 041/057 042/070 041/073 045/077 047/077 047/075 046/069
65/W 32/W 22/T 22/T 33/T 34/T 44/T
HDN 045/067 046/073 050/077 051/081 056/084 056/082 054/076
64/W 43/W 21/B 22/T 22/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 046/067 050/071 050/078 055/081 057/086 058/083 057/077
65/W 63/W 11/B 22/T 22/T 33/T 43/T
4BQ 049/066 047/071 048/077 052/080 056/086 058/083 055/077
74/W 33/W 11/B 22/T 21/B 33/T 34/T
BHK 046/065 047/067 047/074 051/077 057/083 058/082 057/076
64/W 43/W 11/B 22/T 22/T 33/T 43/T
SHR 041/063 043/069 046/073 048/078 052/082 052/080 050/074
73/W 33/W 22/T 22/T 22/T 33/T 34/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
254 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS CLOSED UPPER
LOW/STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC-NW...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INTO MONTANA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON...THEN REACHES OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...MEETING UP WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS...
ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP SUGGEST STORM INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST. SO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE MAINLY
AFTER 00Z. THE STRONGEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF AROUND 2600 J/KG
REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF AROUND -7C ARE INDICATED IN THE SAME AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT...DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50KTS. INVERTED
V-SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
WITH ANY STORM. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF TOWARD THE NORTH. WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELECTED WITH THE
COORDINATION OF SPC TO TO A SPECIAL SOUNDING AROUND 20Z. SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH SEVERE WORDING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
MODELS SUGGEST AROUND A HALF INCH OF MOISTURE...BUT 1 HOUR FF
GUIDANCE HAS ROOM FOR AROUND AN INCH OR MORE. AFTER MIDNIGHT
GROWTH OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AS THEY TREND NORTHEAST
INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...CONTINUING WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND WINDS.
THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE ACTION AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN. THEN
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH POPS. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH 20MPH OVER FORT PECK LAKE
SATURDAY MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY...DRAGGING BACK
SIDE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STORM
SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH SOMEWHAT CALMER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AT LEAST INITIALLY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMES EVEN WEAKER AND ALLOWS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA FOR QUITE A WHILE.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO OUR
REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THIS LATER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE CASCADE RANGE AND CUTS OFF AS A
LARGE AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER
LOW MOVES EITHER EAST (GFS) OR NORTHEAST (ECMWF) OUT OF THE AREA.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO PART OF MONDAY. WILL
KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HAS MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME SUNSHINE TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OCCASIONALLY AND BRIEFLY TO LIFR
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
922 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST YESTERDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES LAST
NIGHT WAS A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THE GOES VISUAL REVEALS THE FOG TO BE RAPIDLY
BURNING OFF THIS MID MORNING. OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES ARE IN STORE
WHICH WILL DEVELOP A WARMER THAN NORMAL DAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH JUST MOVING INTO THE PAC-NW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT EAST OF
THE DIVIDE TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR WESTERN AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND
THE LATEST RAP. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SO ADDED POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...LIKELY FOR THE EVENING. FEW OTHER CHANGES. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER FLOW HAS VEERED TO SW PAST 24 HOURS ALLOWING CONVECTION
FROM E WY/CO TO BE DIRECTED AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO NE MT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
THIS MORNING THOUGH...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS...AND
DELAYED CLEARING IN OUR E LAST NIGHT WHERE THERE WAS
RAINFALL...THIS ALL COMBINING TO CAUSE AREAS OF FOG. MOS DIDN`T
SHOW ANY...BUT RAP MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING WIDESPREAD 95 PCT
SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS OUR E HALF OF THE CWA...AND THERE
ARE SIGNS ON THE SATELLITE FOG LOOP AS WELL AS THE OBS AT
GDV...OLF...AND SCOBEY.
STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY E
AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND LAST 2 RUNS OF THE GFS AND CMC GEM HAVE
BEEN ALSO FARTHER S...SO LOOKING A LITTLE BIT WETTER FOR OUR
AREA.
APPEARS THIS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AS
CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THE AIRMASS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING
LIFTED INDEXES TO AS LOW AS -10...CAPES TO 4000 J/KG...PRECIP
WATER TO 1.3 INCHES. THE GREATEST VALUES IN OUR SE. ALL AREAS WITH
0-6 KM WIND SHEAR OF UP TO 50 KT. THE BETTER DYNAMICS THOUGH IN W
AND N. THERE IS A LEADING COLD FRONT THAT HAS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOP ON IT OVER N WY AND MOVE NE ACROSS OUR SE TONIGHT. LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS JUST SO-SO THOUGH...AND MOST FAVORABLE LEFT
FRONT REGION OF JET IS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT AN
INTENSE...BUT RELATIVELY SHORTLIVED AND PROGRESSIVE CONVECTION AT
ANY ONE LOCATION AS WE QUICKLY CHANGE AIRMASS...BUT MOST ALL OF
THE CWA AFFECTED AS SHOWN BY SWODY1...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THERE IS ALSO A NARROW AREA IN STRONG COOL
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORN OF UP TO 30 KT AT 850
MB...SO MAY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND THIS MAY BE QUITE A BIT
ENHANCED BY CONVECTION TOO
MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY SLOT FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...
BUT THEN INCREASING SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN. DETAILS VARY
QUITE A BIT SO WENT MAINLY BROADRUSH SCATTERED FOR THOSE PERIODS.
MODELS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE DURING THIS TIME ALSO...SO PROBABLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT TOO. SUNDAY QUITE COOL WITH THICKNESS
VALUES INTO THE UPPER 540S AND LOWER 550S DM...NAM EVEN
LOWER...AND WITH PRECIP AND CLOUDCOVER...HIGHS HELD TO THE LOWER
60S. W WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT AT 850 MB WILL LIKELY MEAN A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY TOO. SIMONSEN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES EITHER EAST (GFS) OR
NORTHEAST (ECMWF) OUT OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO PART OF MONDAY. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HAS MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BREAK THROUGH THE MORNING LIFR FOG AND
DISSIPATE IT AROUND 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z AND SPREAD EAST
THIS EVENING. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PERIODS OF MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IF A STRONGER
STORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
428 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...
UPPER FLOW HAS VEERED TO SW PAST 24 HOURS ALLOWING CONVECTION
FROM E WY/CO TO BE DIRECTED AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO NE MT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK
TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
THIS MORNING THOUGH...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS...AND
DELAYED CLEARING IN OUR E LAST NIGHT WHERE THERE WAS
RAINFALL...THIS ALL COMBINING TO CAUSE AREAS OF FOG. MOS DIDN`T
SHOW ANY...BUT RAP MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING WIDESPREAD 95 PCT
SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS OUR E HALF OF THE CWA...AND THERE
ARE SIGNS ON THE SATELLITE FOG LOOP AS WELL AS THE OBS AT
GDV...OLF...AND SCOBEY.
STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY E
AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND LAST 2 RUNS OF THE GFS AND CMC GEM HAVE
BEEN ALSO FARTHER S...SO LOOKING A LITTLE BIT WETTER FOR OUR
AREA.
APPEARS THIS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AS
CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THE AIRMASS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING LIFTED
INDEXES TO AS LOW AS -10...CAPES TO 4000 J/KG...PRECIP WATER TO
1.3 INCHES. THE GREATEST VALUES IN OUR SE. ALL AREAS WITH 0-6 KM
WIND SHEAR OF UP TO 50 KT. THE BETTER DYNAMICS THOUGH IN W AND N.
THERE IS A LEADING COLD FRONT THAT HAS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOP ON
IT OVER N WY AND MOVE NE ACROSS OUR SE TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS JUST SO-SO THOUGH...AND MOST FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT
REGION OF JET IS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT AN INTENSE...BUT
RELATIVELY SHORTLIVED AND PROGRESSIVE CONVECTION AT ANY ONE LOCATION
AS WE QUICKLY CHANGE AIRMASS...BUT MOST ALL OF THE CWA AFFECTED AS
SHOWN BY SWODY1...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THERE IS ALSO A NARROW AREA IN STRONG COOL
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORN OF UP TO 30 KT AT 850 MB...SO MAY
NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND THIS MAY BE QUITE A BIT ENHANCED BY
CONVECTION TOO
MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY SLOT FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
THEN INCREASING SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN. DETAILS VARY QUITE
A BIT SO WENT MAINLY BROADRUSH SCATTERED FOR THOSE PERIODS. MODELS
A BIT MORE UNSTABLE DURING THIS TIME ALSO...SO PROBABLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT TOO. SUNDAY QUITE COOL WITH THICKNESS VALUES
INTO THE UPPER 540S AND LOWER 550S DM...NAM EVEN LOWER...AND WITH
PRECIP AND CLOUDCOVER...HIGHS HELD TO THE LOWER 60S. W WINDS
AROUND 20-30 KT AT 850 MB WILL LIKELY MEAN A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR SUNDAY TOO. SIMONSEN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES EITHER EAST (GFS) OR
NORTHEAST (ECMWF) OUT OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO PART OF MONDAY. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HAS MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG UNTIL 15Z MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z AND SPREAD EAST
THIS EVENING. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PERIODS OF MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT FROM
EITHER LOW CLOUDS AND/OR RAIN. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST 15
TO 25 KNOTS AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1225 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE FORECAST CYCLE WITH A LEE TROUGH TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN
15-20 KT BETWEEN 14-15Z AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT QUICKLY WITH
RAPID HEATING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/
UPDATE...PUSHED BACK SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST CWA AS THESE CELLS
ARE TAKING THEIR TIME MAKING THEIR WAY EAST.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHETHER
OR NOT MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL REALIZE ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL WEATHER
SITUATION TONIGHT/TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK A LOT LIKE THE
PAST 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BEING A BIT WINDIER.
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD 1020MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO/IL BORDER AREA...WHILE OFF TO THE WEST A 1006MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND NEAR THE WY/SD
BORDER. IN BETWEEN...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT
MIXING INTO THE 800-750MB LEVEL HAS PROMOTED A BREEZY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH IN WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE GENERALLY LIVED UP TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS COULD FALL A HAIR SHORT OF TARGET VALUES GIVEN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD HIGH CIRRUS COVER. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT WITH
AN EMBEDDED LOW MEANDERING NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER. UPSTREAM...A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
500MB LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...A WELL-
DEFINED LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM EASTERN WY TO
CENTRAL MT IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST REGIONALLY...WITH THIS
WAVE ALREADY KICKING OFF SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS IN THE WY/SD/NE
BORDER AREA.
FOR THE 00Z-12Z NIGHT PERIOD...MADE ONLY ONE CHANGE OF NOTE TO
POPS/WEATHER. INSTEAD OF HAVING SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE 6-HOUR BLOCK FROM 00Z-06Z AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD...OPTED TO SHIFT THIS FORWARD BY 3 HOURS...INSTEAD
HIGHLIGHTING THE 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN ONLY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE
CWA...OR GENERALLY WEST OF A GREELEY-BEAVER CITY LINE. AND ONLY
KEPT THESE CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT AT THAT...AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TARGET THE DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST NEB.
LEANING ON HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...HRRR AND
12Z 4KM WRF-NMM...EXPECTATION IS THAT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FIRING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEB...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS
EAST TOWARD THE CWA. OPTED TO PULL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING OUT
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH IS LINE WITH SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK...BUT DEFINITELY MADE SURE TO KEEP A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR 50 MPH WINDS/PENNY SIZE HAIL IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES
MANAGE TO GET INTO THE CWA. THAT IS OF COURSE NO GUARANTEE THAT IT
WILL GET IN...AND THUS ONLY THE 20 POPS...AS THE HRRR AND ALSO
THE 18Z NAM/12Z GFS JUST BARELY BRING QPF INTO THE EDGE OF THE CWA
BEFORE REALLY FADING IT OUT. JUST DON/T SEE MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT UNLESS FOR SOME REASON A MAJOR EASTWARD-SURGING COLD POOL
GETS GOING...AS BY THE TIME CONVECTION SHOULD GET INTO THE CWA
ANTICIPATE MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO ONLY BE AROUND
500 J/KG...WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 20KT OR LESS. TURNING
TO OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
LOWER LOW TEMPS BY A SOLID 4-5 DEGREES BASED ON TRENDS FROM PAST
FEW NIGHTS...NOW BRINGING MOST OF THE CWA DOWN INTO THE 58-60
RANGE. DESPITE SOUTHERLY BREEZES REMAINING A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...JUST DON/T SEE HOW TEMPS CAN HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S ALL
NIGHT WITHOUT HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
FOR THE FRIDAY DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE AS IT ALREADY WAS...AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENS A BIT AND
BECOMES QUASI ZONAL...AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WELL UP INTO
CANADA...AND THE PARENT UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT DEEPER INTO THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. DESPITE THE DRY FORECAST...WOULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE SHOWER AFFECT A SMALL PORTION
OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING WITH SOME HINT OF 700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AROUND...BUT JUST CANNOT JUSTIFY INSERTING MORE THAN
SILENT VERY LOW POPS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMP-WISE...MADE
ALMOST NO CHANGE WHATSOEVER TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...WITH
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE 87-91 RANGE...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND WITH MIXING ADVERTISED TO
AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL PER NAM SOUNDINGS. IT WILL BE A BIT
WINDIER AS WELL THANKS TO HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF
THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA REALIZING
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30
TO POSSIBLY 35 MPH. ALONG THESE LINES...AND BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
TODAY...LOWERED DEWPOINTS QUITE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
ORDER OF 6-8 DEGREES...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
MIX ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING/MIXING HOURS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING FRIDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD RIDGING...WHILE A TROUGH SITS OVER THE EAST
COAST AND A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC
NW COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL IN PLACE...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST/SERN CONUS...AND LOW PRESSURE
SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEN THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE RIDGE AXIS GETS PUSHED EAST BY THE
PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THINGS STAYING CAPPED OFF WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE
13-16C RANGE. DID INCREASE WINDS A TOUCH ON SATURDAY INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE INCREASE AS SFC LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF NEB/NW KS AREA. AS FAR AS HIGHS GO...HAD TRENDED THEM
UP YESTERDAY...AND WILL KEEP THEM FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH 90S EXPECTED
CWA-WIDE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE MODELS AS WE GET INTO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WHILE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A QUICKER SOLUTION...THERE IS NOT COMPLETE AGREEMENT. AT 12Z
SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE
CENTRAL MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING S/SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AS FAR AS THE LOCATION OF THE
SFC FRONT GOES...BASICALLY RANGES FROM A QUICKER NAM/SREF WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING ROUGHLY A THIRD OF THE WAY IN...TO THE ECMWF WHICH
STILL HAS IT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO WRN KS. THROUGH THE DAY THAT
STORY REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...THE NAM/SREF/GFS ARE ON THE
QUICKER SIDE...SHOWING THE FRONT OUTSIDE THE E/SE CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 00Z MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS A TOUCH BEHIND. THOUGH
CONSIDERED INSERT A SLIGHT POP ACROSS THE FAR EAST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DIDNT WANT TO FLIP FLOP THE FORECAST...AND WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW TO SEE IF THE EC SPEEDS UP...OR THE OTHERS SLOW DOWN. INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE FASTER TREND IN THE
MODELS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...BASICALLY TIGHTENED UP THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. LEFT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND CONSIDERED TAKING PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT COMPLETELY
ACROSS THE NW...BUT WANT TO WAIT AND MAKE SURE THIS TREND STICKS.
CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...INSTABILITY NOT AN
ISSUE...HAVE BETTER FORCING WITH THE FRONT/WAVE...AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS BETTER BUT NOT GREAT. WITH THE
INCREASED CHANCE OF A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
BECOME MORE TRICKY. DID TREND BACK DUE TO THE QUICKER TIMING...WITH
MID 80S IN THE NW TO NEAR 90 IN THE SE...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY
ADDITIONAL TIMING CHANGES WOULD AFFECT THOSE FORECAST HIGHS.
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HINT AT THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE ACTIVITY
STARTING IN THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT WITHOUT BETTER AGREEMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT. A REINFORCING FRONT/SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
BUT DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 40S/LOW 50S BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS AS WE GET INTO WED/THURS...AND
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES TO CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION..AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS POSSIBLY DRIFTING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WANT TO SEE
BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING POPS AT THIS POINT. NOT EXPECTING
BIG CHANGES IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
956 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
TRIGGERING A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH
MAINLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL COME TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARKENING OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE ALOFT THAT WAS RIDING SOUTHEAST.
THIS WAVE WILL CROSS NY AND NE PA OVERNIGHT AND LEAD TO LIFTING
AND DESTABILIZATION ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY AND THE EXTREME NE PART OF
PENNSYLVANIA BTWN 03Z AND 08Z OR SO. THE NAM AND RAP ALL SHOW
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE USING
A PARCEL FROM 800 MB. IN ANY EVENT...THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WHICH WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THE ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED AND REALLY MARGINAL
WE DON/T EXPECT ANY SEVERE. I HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH INCLUDES NC
AND EC NY AND EXTREME NE PA. KEPT MAINLY CHC POPS OR SLIGHTLY LESS
IN WC NY AND THE REST OF NE PA.
AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES BY THE WARM FRONT WILL RE-ORIENT ITSELF TO
EXTEND FROM ABT UCA SOUTHWARD TO THE POCONOS OR SO. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH INSOLATION ON SUNDAY TO THE TUNE OF
500-1000 J/KG. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS MARGINAL SUNDAY BUT WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER IN NE PA AND SC NY SO WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS FOR SCT
SHRA/TSRA MAINLT SRN PORTION OF CWA. PLUS THE FLOW WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW AIR FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO STABILIZE
A LARGE PART OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION INTO THE HIGHLANDS OF
CNTRL NY. HENCE HAVE LOWER POPS IN THE ISLD CATEGORY FOR THESE
AREAS SUNDAY. SINCE CAPES AND SHEAR ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE NO SEVERE
IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW THE OLD SFC BNDRY LINGERING OVER THE ERN ZONES INTO
MON DESPITE THE RDGG ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF
CONV SHWRS AND ISLTD TRWS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE ERN ZONES.
OTRW...RDG LINE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THRU THE PD ALLOWING A SFC TROF
AND SRN STREAM WV TO APRCH FOR TUE. MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE SYSTEM
TO BE WELL SUPPLIED WITH MOISTURE AS IT LFTS NWRD OUT OF THE GULF.
DVLPG UA JET BY TUES AHD OF THE SFC COLD FNT WILL HELP WRING OUT
THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON TUE. LUCKILY...SYSTEM SEEMS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST THRU THE SHRT TERM PD...WITH GFS FCSTD PWS
OF BETTER THAN 1.50 INCHES.
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THE PD...ESP SUN AND MON WITH TEMPS
PUSHING 90F IN THE LWR ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN AND WRN ZONES. ATTM
IT APPEARS WE WILL BE WELL BLO ANY HEAT FLAG THRESHOLDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PD BEGINS AS A COLD FNT IS PUSHING THRU THE FCST AREA. INITIAL
TIMING AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS IS GOOD...THEN THE GFS DVLPS A
WV ALONG THE FNT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...DELAYING THE EWRD
PROGRESS ON WED. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME SHWRS AND TRWS TO LINGER
OVER THE ERN ZONES INTO THU. ECMWF INDICATES SOME TROFINESS OVER
WRN NEW ENG AS WELL...SO BEST BET FCST IS TO CONT SOME CHANCE POPS
THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PD...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OVER THE EAST
NEARER THE STALLED FNT OR SFC TROF. ALSO...BOTH MODELS SHOW ONLY
WEAK RDGG SFC AND ALOFT THRU THE PD...SO SOME CONV PSBL AT ALMOST
ANY TIME.
DFRNCS IN THE SFC PTRN DID MAKE SOME DFRNC IN THE FCSTD TEMPS FOR
THE PD. DECIDED TO START WITH HPC GUID FOR TEMPS...THEN BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS BASED GUID TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY
AND TO BETTER COMPROMISE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRESENTLY ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KRME ARE VFR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS HUNG UP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO TO KSYR-KOIC-KMSV AND KMGJ.
AS A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW OVER THIS
BOUNDARY BELIEVE SOME IFR CIG AND VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AT KRME NORTH OF THIS BNDRY BTWN 08-12Z. REST OF TAFS
SHUD SEE SKIES SCT OUT AS PER LATEST SATL IMAGERY. WITH SOME
CLEARING BELIEVE PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR BR/FG WILL DVLP AGAIN
BTWN 08Z AND 12Z...ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT KAVP WHERE CONDITIONS SHUD
REMAIN VFR THRU PA. THERE WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED SHRA COMING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. BELIEVE ACVTY WILL BE
SO ISOLATED AND PROBABLY NOT LAST LONG ENUF SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN
TAFS.
I EXPECT SCT-BKN CU FORMATION SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. AGAIN SOME ISLD
TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A FEW TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENUF TO PUT IN ANY PRESENTLY ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KRME ARE VFR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS HUNG UP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO TO KSYR-KOIC-KMSV AND KMGJ.
AS A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW OVER THIS
BOUNDARY BELIEVE SOME IFR CIG AND VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TOPNIGHT AT KRME NORTH OF THIS BNDRY BTWN 08-12Z. REST OF TAFS SHUD
SEE SKIES SCT OUT AS PER LATEST SATL IMAGERY. WITH SOME CLEARING
BELIEVE PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR BR/FG WILL DVLP AGAIN BTWN 08Z
AND 12Z...ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT KAVP WHERE CONDITIONS SHUD REMAIN VFR
THRU PA. THERE WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED SHRA COMING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. BELIEVE ACVTY WILL BE SO ISOLATED AND
PROBABLY NOT LAST LONG ENUF SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS.
I EXPECT SCT-BKN CU FORMATION SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. AGAIN SOME ISLD
TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A FEW TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENUF TO PUT IN TAFS THIS FAR OUT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT VLY FOG PSBL EACH MRNG.
TUE...VFR GIVING WAY TO MVFR IN SCT TSRA
WED...VFR.
THU...VFR XCPT MVFR IN SCT TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
123 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FAIR AND WARM WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THEN A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE GENERAL TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A
BIT DRIER CONDITIONS. A CONSENSUS QPF AMONG THE NAM/RGEM/GFS ALL
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON
SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN
THE DRY AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE...
EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF ROCHESTER...HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO
AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE A BIT OF A
DIFFERENT STORY. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED NORTH OF
LAKE HURON IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NORTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE WILL
HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
ENHANCE INSTABILITY. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WILL REACH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ML CAPES WILL
INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS
COUNTIES. WHILE THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...WIND PROFILES
SHOW SOME WIND SHEAR FROM 925 MB TO 700 MB...SUPPORTING SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. FREEZING
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. SPC
HAS THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT.
WILL ADD A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN
ZONES/GRIDS/HWO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING. THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD
THE REGION...A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN
NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTION WILL APPROACH EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...SEE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER METRO
AREAS...RANGING TO THE MID-50S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY...AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...AND TRACKS ALONG A SURFACE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A DECENT 30-40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY...AND AT LEAST SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE LOOKING A
DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.
IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE...ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CONCENTRATING THE BEST
OVERALL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TIMING-WISE...A
CONSENSUS OF THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL COME BETWEEN MID SATURDAY MORNING
AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FASTER AND MORE INCONSISTENT
00Z GFS DISCARDED AS A FAST OUTLIER. WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT... WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS INDICATED
OTHERWISE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN PLAY...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 80 IN THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO
GRADUALLY FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF A
WARMER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE A RETURN TO QUIETER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BOTH AFTERNOONS...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THEREFORE
A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO MIDSUMMERLIKE
WARMTH...AS WELL AS A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C AND +16C ON SUNDAY AND THE +16C
TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY...EXPECT SURFACE READINGS TO REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WHEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN OUR NORMALLY WARMEST LOCATIONS.
COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE
FOR FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SULTRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL
STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC-BASED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VACILLATE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...HAVE JUST KEPT BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS IN PLAY FOR BOTH DAYS
FOR NOW.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY...
THOUGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL /MID-UPPER 70S/
WITH 850 MB READINGS ONLY FALLING BACK TO THE +10C TO +14C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. KART WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE AFTERNOON PRESENTING A
PERIOD OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE... TIMING WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 00Z.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS
THE FINGER LAKES REGION, INCLUDING KROC.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHC SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE...AND WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS/WAVES WILL FALL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE ON EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...LEVAN/APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
943 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FAIR AND WARM WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THEN A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE GENERAL TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A
BIT DRIER CONDITIONS. A CONSENSUS QPF AMONG THE NAM/RGEM/GFS ALL
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON
SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN
THE DRY AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE...
EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF ROCHESTER...HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO
AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE A BIT OF A
DIFFERENT STORY. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED NORTH OF
LAKE HURON IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NORTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE WILL
HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
ENHANCE INSTABILITY. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WILL REACH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ML CAPES WILL
INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS
COUNTIES. WHILE THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...WIND PROFILES
SHOW SOME WIND SHEAR FROM 925 MB TO 700 MB...SUPPORTING SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. FREEZING
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. SPC
HAS THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT.
WILL ADD A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN
ZONES/GRIDS/HWO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING. THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD
THE REGION...A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN
NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTION WILL APPROACH EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...SEE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER METRO
AREAS...RANGING TO THE MID-50S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY...AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...AND TRACKS ALONG A SURFACE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A DECENT 30-40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY...AND AT LEAST SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE LOOKING A
DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.
IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE...ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CONCENTRATING THE BEST
OVERALL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TIMING-WISE...A
CONSENSUS OF THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL COME BETWEEN MID SATURDAY MORNING
AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FASTER AND MORE INCONSISTENT
00Z GFS DISCARDED AS A FAST OUTLIER. WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT... WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS INDICATED
OTHERWISE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN PLAY...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 80 IN THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO
GRADUALLY FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF A
WARMER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE A RETURN TO QUIETER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BOTH AFTERNOONS...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THEREFORE
A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO MIDSUMMERLIKE
WARMTH...AS WELL AS A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C AND +16C ON SUNDAY AND THE +16C
TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY...EXPECT SURFACE READINGS TO REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WHEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN OUR NORMALLY WARMEST LOCATIONS.
COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE
FOR FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SULTRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL
STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC-BASED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VACILLATE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...HAVE JUST KEPT BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS IN PLAY FOR BOTH DAYS
FOR NOW.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY...
THOUGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL /MID-UPPER 70S/
WITH 850 MB READINGS ONLY FALLING BACK TO THE +10C TO +14C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT MORE STABLE IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT LIMITING
INSTABILITY. FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUF/ROC/IAG/JHW)...EXPECT TODAY
TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE. ART WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE...WITH
THE AFTERNOON PRESENTING A PERIOD OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS ON
MID-AFTERNOON TIMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
ART BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...ARES OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE...AND WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS/WAVES WILL FALL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE ON EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...LEVAN/APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
744 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FAIR AND WARM WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THEN A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE GENERAL TREND OF
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A BIT DRIER CONDITIONS. A CONSENSUS QPF AMONG THE
NAM/RGEM/GFS ALL REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE BACKED OFF ON SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE DRY AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THIS
REGION. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF
ROCHESTER...HAVE SOLID CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...THOUGH IT
MAY BE A BIT BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 25
MPH OR SO AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE A BIT OF A
DIFFERENT STORY. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED NORTH OF
LAKE HURON IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NORTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE WILL
HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
ENHANCE INSTABILITY. INITIALLY...AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING. RAP PROFILES ON
BUFKIT SHOW THIS IS BEING CAUSED BY LIFT ALOFT. THE SHORTWAVE
TRAILS THIS...WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ML CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES. WHILE THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...WIND PROFILES SHOW SOME WIND SHEAR FROM 925 MB TO
700 MB...SUPPORTING SOME ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES. FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...INCREASING
THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND
AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. WILL ADD A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL IN ZONES/GRIDS/HWO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING. THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD
THE REGION...A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN
NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTION WILL APPROACH EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...SEE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER METRO
AREAS...RANGING TO THE MID-50S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY...AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...AND TRACKS ALONG A SURFACE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A DECENT 30-40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY...AND AT LEAST SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE LOOKING A
DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.
IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE...ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CONCENTRATING THE BEST
OVERALL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TIMING-WISE...A
CONSENSUS OF THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL COME BETWEEN MID SATURDAY MORNING
AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FASTER AND MORE INCONSISTENT
00Z GFS DISCARDED AS A FAST OUTLIER. WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT... WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS INDICATED
OTHERWISE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN PLAY...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 80 IN THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO
GRADUALLY FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF A
WARMER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE A RETURN TO QUIETER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BOTH AFTERNOONS...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THEREFORE
A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO MIDSUMMERLIKE
WARMTH...AS WELL AS A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C AND +16C ON SUNDAY AND THE +16C
TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY...EXPECT SURFACE READINGS TO REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WHEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN OUR NORMALLY WARMEST LOCATIONS.
COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE
FOR FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SULTRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL
STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC-BASED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VACILLATE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...HAVE JUST KEPT BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS IN PLAY FOR BOTH DAYS
FOR NOW.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY...
THOUGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL /MID-UPPER 70S/
WITH 850 MB READINGS ONLY FALLING BACK TO THE +10C TO +14C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT MORE STABLE IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT LIMITING
INSTABILITY. FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUF/ROC/IAG/JHW)...EXPECT TODAY
TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE. ART WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE...WITH
THE AFTERNOON PRESENTING A PERIOD OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS ON
MID-AFTERNOON TIMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
ART BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...ARES OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE...AND WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS/WAVES WILL FALL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE ON EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
330 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FAIR AND WARM WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THEN A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH DAYBREAK...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH
RADAR SHOWING THAT SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY HAVE TAPERED
OFF. TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE STILL FAIRLY WIDE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. THIS SAID...DO
EXPECT THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
FOR THE MOST PART...THE GENERAL TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. CONSENSUS QPF AMONG THE NAM/RGEM/GFS ALL REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE HRRR IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE KEYING ON THE LAKE BREEZES SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...BUT IT WAS A BIT OVERDONE YESTERDAY...AND GIVEN THE
DRY AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT THERE WILL BE ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY.
HAVE SOLID CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER TODAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF ROCHESTER. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE A BIT OF A
DIFFERENT STORY. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED NORTH OF
LAKE HURON DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THIS FORECAST TO
DIVE TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND
THIS EVENING. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LAKE WILL HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY. NAM/RAP FORECAST SUGGEST ML CAPES WILL
INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS
COUNTIES. WHILE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...WIND PROFILES FORECAST
SOME WIND SHEAR FROM 925 MB TO 700 MB...SUPPORTING SOME ORGANIZATION
WITH CONVECTION AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUE TO
BE LOW...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK...AND AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. WILL ADD A MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN ZONES/GRIDS/HWO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING. THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD
THE REGION...A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN
NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTION WILL APPROACH EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...SEE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER METRO
AREAS...RANGING TO THE MID-50S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY...AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...AND TRACKS ALONG A SURFACE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A DECENT 30-40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY...AND AT LEAST SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE LOOKING A
DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.
IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE...ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CONCENTRATING THE BEST
OVERALL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TIMING-WISE...A
CONSENSUS OF THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL COME BETWEEN MID SATURDAY MORNING
AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FASTER AND MORE INCONSISTENT
00Z GFS DISCARDED AS A FAST OUTLIER. WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT... WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS INDICATED
OTHERWISE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN PLAY...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 80 IN THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO
GRADUALLY FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF A
WARMER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE A RETURN TO QUIETER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BOTH AFTERNOONS...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THEREFORE
A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO MIDSUMMERLIKE
WARMTH...AS WELL AS A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C AND +16C ON SUNDAY AND THE +16C
TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY...EXPECT SURFACE READINGS TO REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WHEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN OUR NORMALLY WARMEST LOCATIONS.
COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE
FOR FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SULTRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL
STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC-BASED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VACILLATE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...HAVE JUST KEPT BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS IN PLAY FOR BOTH DAYS
FOR NOW.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY...
THOUGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL /MID-UPPER 70S/
WITH 850 MB READINGS ONLY FALLING BACK TO THE +10C TO +14C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS FAIRLY DRY IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND THERE IS A LIGHT BUT DETECTABLE WIND OVERNIGHT...SO
EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES SEE THE FOG POTENTIAL AS MINIMAL AT ALL
TAF LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT MORE STABLE IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT LIMITING
INSTABILITY. FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUF/ROC/IAG/JHW)...EXPECT TODAY
TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE. ART WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE...WITH
THE AFTERNOON PRESENTING A PERIOD OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS ON
MID-AFTERNOON TIMING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY PASS ACROSS OR
NEAR ART BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...ARES OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE...AND WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS/WAVES WILL FALL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE ON EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE TN/OHIO VALLEY. VERY MOIST AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE WAVE AND WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...
TONIGHT:
WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO EASTWARD SHIFT OF A 1019MB SURFACE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RESPONDED...
RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT WARMER THAN THIS
SAME TIME LAST NIGHT.
CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SPREAD
INTO THE AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY
SHEAR AXIS EMANATING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE BROAD MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND MOVING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
AS SUCH...EXPECT TO SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...
PRODUCING GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CLOUDS AND THE
MODERATING AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH MORNING
LOWS PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 60S. -CBL
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PROGGED TO HOLD OVER THE
REGION...THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND
REMAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING CENTRAL NC MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING
IN MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THEY WEAKEN THE RIDGE A LITTLE
MORE OVER WESTERN NC. AS A RESULT...THEY SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP CHANCES MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CWA FOR LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NOT AS WARM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
(WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS FOR A LONGER PART OF THE DAY) AND
AM GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE NEAR 90 DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 301 PM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...850MB WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS
SC...ITS NWD PROGRESS IMPEDED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NW-SE
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY WEAKENS...ALLOWING THE
850MB WARM FRONT TO EDGE NWD INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY MONDAY.
DEVELOPING S-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO USHER VERY MOIST AIR INTO
CENTRAL NC. PRECIP WATER VALUES PROJECTED TO INCREASE BY 100 PERCENT
FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING WITH PW VALUES BY EARLY MONDAY
1.5-1.8 INCHES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED AHEAD OF THE 850MB WARM
FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER OUR W-SW
COUNTIES BY SUNDAY EVENING...PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR
REGION MAY HOLD OFF RAIN THREAT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT (4-6 HOURS
LATER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS). STILL...DO NOT PLAN TO CHANGE LITTLE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH PARAMETERS IN
PLACE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH...ALONG WITH
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE...WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT MINS
3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 60S.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
LATE SUNDAY LIFTS NEWD...NUDGED ALONG BY A DEEPER TROUGH CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MON AM...THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL BE IN THE
TN VALLEY AND CONTINUE TO INCH SLOWLY ENE. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
AN OPEN FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE CAROLINA.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE GREATEST IN THE WEST VERSUS EAST AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER ORGANIZED LIFT WILL RESIDE IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT COMPARED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS MAY BE
MORE UNSTABLE IN THE EAST SINCE THIS REGION MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL
SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVERAGE...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS LOW-MID 80S. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM SATURDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD. THESE FEATURES INTERACTING WITH THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THIS FEATURE PROJECTED TO ONLY INCH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. DUE TO THE WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT...COULD SEE SHOWERS
AND STORMS CROSS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATION...LEADING TO
MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. AS ELUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS WILL
LIKELY HAVE STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...LEADING TO PRECIP
LOADING. THIS IN TURN MAY CAUSE A FEW WET MICROBURSTS EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CONSIDERABLE AND PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THOUGH THE HUMID AIR MASS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER WARM/STICKY. MAX TEMPS 80-84. MIN TEMPS
UPPER 60S-NEAR 70.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...12Z GFS TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH THE
EWD TRANSLATION IN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION
TO THE 00Z ECMWF. WHILE MAY SEE A LINGERING CHANCE POP IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN....ESPECIALLY THU AFTERNOON....OVERALL TREND WILL BE
FOR THE AIR MASS TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT...LEADING TO LOWER POP
CHANCES. BY LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.
WITH FEW CLOUDS/SHOWERS...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT (WHICH WILL BE
DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA) WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH. HOWEVER...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/STORM OR TWO MAKING IT
INTO WESTERN AND/OR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC NEAR THE VERY
END OF THE TAF PERIOD (MAINLY AT KGSO/KINT/KFAY)... THOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDED ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS (AND
ASSOCIATED SUB VFR CONDITIONS) FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP (AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS) LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/KRR
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/KRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
349 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY
AND TONIGHT THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THE OFFSHORE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUE INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CURRENTLY ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN VIRGINIA ARE
DISSIPATING AS FORECAST BY THE HRRR MODEL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE STATE TODAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FAVOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AT
THIS TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY
CAPPED AT 645 MB DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A RISING HEIGHT
FIELD. THIS CAP WILL STRONGLY INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SEA BREEZE SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
80S INLAND AND AROUND 80 BEACHES UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE FORECAST TO BE
SEASONABLY COOL WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND. AT
THE BEACHES LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PRODUCE MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL BE DRY AND DOMINATED BY
HIGH PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. A WEAK UPR TROUGH OVER THE GULF
COAST WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD SLOWLY EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK...
AND BEGIN TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN E NC. RECENT ECMWF BRINGS
IN UNSETTLED WEATHER A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER THINKING...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 08/00Z GEM MODEL. GFS IS A SLOW
OUTLIER SO DID NOT GIVE THIS SOLN MUCH WEIGHT.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS MON WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRES MIGRATING EASTWARD. HTS BEGIN TO FALL
MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS UPR LOW MOVES EAST WITH ATTENDANT WEAK SFC
REFLECTION. ADDED CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACCORDANCE...
WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED AS PWATS INC TO NEARLY 2 INCHES...AND WITH BETTER
UPR LEVEL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INC. ADDED THUNDER TO THE
GRIDS AS WELL...THOUGH WEAK SHEAR WILL YIELD UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO WED AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND AS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO ADVANCE OUT OF THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A STABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN NC. EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT PGV WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FORECAST SIMILAR THAT WHICH OCCURRED THERE LAST NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUE...THOUGH COULD BE SOME
EARLY MORNING BR AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS INCREASING.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS UPR TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT THIS MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10
KT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP IN THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF LOOKOUT AND REMAINING 10 KT
SOUTH. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 6 TO 8
SECONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SW FLOW WILL INC LATE SAT AS HIGH PRES RETREATS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB SCA HOWEVER...GENERALLY
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. THESE WINDS WILL LINGER
INTO SUN AS THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SE COAST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET...LESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WINDS COULD DIMINISH A BIT MON AND TUE AS SFC HIGH RIDGES
CLOSER TO SHORE...THOUGH WILL REMAIN S TO SW.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
156 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH MIDDAY. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM THURSDAY...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROUGH STILL HANGING OUT ALONG THE
EAST COAST WITH THE 250MB JET OVER NC AND VA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DPVA PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NC BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
FRIDAY. THE SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH VA ARE BEING DRIVEN BY THIS
DPVA AND LINGERING INSTABILITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THEY WILL MAKE IN INTO CENTRAL NC.
NEVERTHELESS...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDED THE TIME THROUGH 06Z GIVEN
THE FORECASTED TRACK OF VORTICITY MAX AS THE TROUGH BEINGS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE. THE 21Z HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE SHOWERS
MAKING IT TO THE VA/NC BORDER BY 06Z BUT FALLING APART AS IT DOES
SO.
SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 22Z AND THE 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW.AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA... BRINGING A MUCH WARMER
AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKS END AND MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE
SFC RIDGE STILL CENTERED TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR
MOISTURE PROFILE AS TODAY...BUT WARMING BETWEEN H5-H7 WILL CAP
DEVELOPING DAYTIME CU. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS UNDER
THIS RIDGE AND GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 60 AS
THE SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND WITH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST. EXPECT VERY SHALLOW DAYTIME
CU AND VERY WARM TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
ON SUNDAY WE`LL SEE AN ELONGATED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER NE
TX AND LA GRADUALLY DRIFTING NE ALONG THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS OUR
AREA...BUT DRY AND WARM MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PRECLUDE PRECIP. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...SO WE`LL SEE
HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM...
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HEIGHTS
IS NOTED ACROSS TX AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LOW
THAT MARGINALLY CLOSES OFF. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME AND
THE TX/GULF LOW OPENS AND LIFTS NORTH AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. EVENTUALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WHICH REACHES THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY AND THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER FEATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF UPPER LOW AND THE TIMING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON DAYS 6/7 ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DECREASES WED
AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
WEST WHERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT AND GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. WILL CAP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES. BUT WITH PW
VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND AT LEAST SOME
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY HIGHER. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY REDUCING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDINESS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE CONTRACTS FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND WITH HIGHS
NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM FRIDAY...
ASIDE FROM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF PRE-DAWN
MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KRWI...AND A PRECEDING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A VFR SHOWER ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SOME
PREVAILING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 13-20Z...THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.
LOOKING AHEAD: RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE
WARMING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A
SLOW-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WAVE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MON-TUE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC/NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1237 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME
CENTERED OFFSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
VIRGINIA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST BUT IS FORECAST BY THE HRRR MODEL TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING EASTERN NC. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POPPING UP BEFORE DAWN BUT WITH FAIRLY STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
WINDS PRODUCING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOWERED MINS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S INLAND (LOWER
60S COAST) AND THIS LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDS EAST AS BROAD
TROF PUSHES OFF THE COAST. AN ISOLD SHOWER CUD DEVELOP ALONG
SEABREEZE BUT MAINLY WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT UNDER THE NW
FLOW ALOFT. DOWNSLOPE AND RISING THICKNESSES BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S INLAND OF THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 FOR OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...WHEN COMPARED WITH HPC SURFACE FEATURES THE 00Z
ECMWF LINES UP VERY WELL SO USED IT FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WARM
AND DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST AND
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. ON
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE GETS ERODED FROM WEST BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GULF STATES ADVANCING EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE
PLAINS. THE CUTOFF AND TROF WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A WEAK TROF
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP ADVANCE A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A STABLE ARIMASS IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN NC. EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT PGV WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FORECAST SIMILAR THAT WHICH OCCURRED THERE LAST NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE/
AS OF 2 PM THU...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS ARE IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE WITH 13 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
BEACHES. THIS SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY LEADING TO A LOWER
RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE NORTHERN AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE/
AS OF 2 PM THU...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS IN STORE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BECOME SOUTH FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...INCREASING
TO 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY. SEAS RUNNING 2-4 FEET.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/JME
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/BTC/JME/HSA
MARINE...CTC/BTC/JME/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
318 AM PDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY MILDER WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR
AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING
REVEALS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE VANCOUVER ISLAND
COAST. RADAR AND INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICT NUMEROUS SHOWERS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION AS COLD UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT SAGS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA.
SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO HOLD TOGETHER ONCE IN THE LEE OF THE COAST
RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...BUT GIVEN TRENDS...I DO EXPECT
THERE TO BE NOTICEABLE BREAKS IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TODAY.
WITH THAT SAID...THE NAM...RUC AND HRRR SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MID MORNING ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DEEPER CONVECTION
FIRING OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS BRING
THIS AREA OF INCREASED SHOWERS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE
LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS. AFTER WHICH...WE MAY EXPERIENCE A SEVERAL
HOUR LULL IN PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
MODELS THEN GENERALLY BRING THE MAIN VORT MAX AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT
OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE...I DO
EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY TO
KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE COMMON.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR 4KFT TODAY...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL LIKELY ONLY OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CASCADES COINCIDES WITH A LACK OF SOLAR
ENERGY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS OVER THE
HIGHER PASSES. AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE ISSUE WILL REMAIN OUT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES. HOWEVER...UNDER A SIMILAR PATTERN RECENTLY...WE HELD ONTO
SHOWERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY
SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER...AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
WARM FURTHER MONDAY...WITH MID 70S APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
GENERAL TRENDS IN EXTENDED MODELS IS FOR A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TO LAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW CONFINED TO
THE GULF. WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS...THE WEAK SHORTWAVES DEPICTED PUSHING
IN ARE LIKELY TO PROVE ONLY A SMALL THREAT FOR PRODUCING RAIN...AND
AS SUCH WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. LATER IN
THE WEEK...BEGINNING AROUND WED...THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW BEGINS TO
DIG SE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY IN SHOWERS. AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT
DROPS OVER THE AREA ON FRI...LOOK FOR SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND. THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
ALL TAFS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOOK FOR THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME SMALL HAIL AFTER ABOUT
20Z UNTIL SUNSET. TODD/27
&&
.MARINE...BUOY 89 HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING IN THE 22-25 KT
RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THIS MORNING FOR WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HOWEVER...STILL CONCERNED
THAT CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO 25 KT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT
COULD OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE ALERT
TO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SMALL HAIL AND ABRUPT WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND DIRECTION
AND SPEED LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NW AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE STILL
KEEPING WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT SPEEDS...BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE MODELS TRACK THE LOW. HAVE MAINTAINED GUSTS NEAR 20
KT INTO LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL HOLD IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN START DIMINISHING. TODD/27
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM
TO 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
538 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST PLACES. SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WY AND PORTIONS OF SD THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A PERIOD OF STRONG NW WINDS. GUSTS OVER 40KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NWRN
SD...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLKHLS
INCLUDING THE KRAP TERMINAL. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NE WY EARLY SUN MORNING...INCLUDING THE
KGCC TERMINAL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL ND...WITH SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL SD AND WESTERN NEB.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALBERTA...WITH
STRONG JET WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM FROM THE OREGON COAST TO
WESTERN WY AND EASTERN MT. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET...CROSSING
NORTH CENTRAL WY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. BRISK NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
THE MID 90S OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER
TONIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWESTERN SD. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL
DECREASE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER IN THIS AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD. CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 3000 J/KG ARE
PROGGED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING WITH SHEAR INCREASING
DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SD
AS MAIN COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA AND SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN. SHORT RANGE MODELS DISAGREE
SOME ON POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF WINDS OVERNIGHT. NAM AND RUC ARE
STRONGEST WITH THE WINDS...SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER THE RAP AREA AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WEST CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE. WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPPER
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
PLEASANTLY COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR MOST AREAS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR TSTMS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH
MID WEEK. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE WRN CONUS. THIS MAY LEAD TO
INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTMS...WITH TEMPS STAYING QUITE WARM.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
BUTTE-CUSTER CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO
PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN MEADE CO
PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
334 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...EXCEPT IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...CUMULUS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON MESA. IF
THESE DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEY COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AND IN FACT...THE RAP SHOWS THIS SCENARIO
FOR A BRIEF WINDOW THIS EVENING. HIGH CIN VALUES AND RELATIVELY WEAK
0 TO 6 KM MEAN FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THE OK
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...BUT IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
AREA.
TOMORROW...THE DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW.
BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS PROGRESS
EAST...POSSIBLY MOVING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ENTIRELY. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLD FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO...IF NOT
ENTERING...THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THAT
STRONG DAY TIME COLD FRONTS ARE ABNORMAL FOR MID JUNE...EXPECT THAT
THE FRONT WILL SLOW IF NOT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE DRY AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE DRYLINE PROGRESSES EAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HAVE ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD STILL
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. STARTING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANCES FOR STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...IN A STARK DEPARTURE FROM
BOTH THE GFS AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF...NOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE
TO A SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY BEHIND THE FRONT. AM HESITANT TO GO WITH
THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO
HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GFS SOLUTION.
JOHNSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN...AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
PANHANDLES TOMORROW. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND GREEN FUELS...DO NOT
EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER
EAST...POSSIBLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. STILL...GIVEN THE CONDITION
OF THE FUELS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSH
THROUGH ALL OF THE PANHANDLES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER...AND
THUS HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 61 93 59 95 60 / 0 0 0 5 10
BEAVER OK 63 93 63 100 59 / 0 0 0 5 10
BOISE CITY OK 60 97 57 93 56 / 20 0 0 5 10
BORGER TX 65 95 66 98 64 / 0 0 0 5 10
BOYS RANCH TX 62 98 57 98 61 / 0 0 0 5 10
CANYON TX 60 93 56 95 60 / 0 0 0 5 10
CLARENDON TX 62 91 64 96 62 / 0 0 0 5 10
DALHART TX 58 98 50 94 57 / 5 0 0 5 10
GUYMON OK 61 96 59 94 58 / 5 0 0 5 10
HEREFORD TX 59 94 58 95 58 / 0 0 0 5 10
LIPSCOMB TX 65 90 64 97 63 / 0 0 0 5 10
PAMPA TX 61 92 61 94 61 / 0 0 0 5 10
SHAMROCK TX 64 89 64 96 64 / 0 0 0 5 10
WELLINGTON TX 64 91 65 98 65 / 0 0 0 5 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.AVIATION...
PROLONGED IFR CEILINGS AT LBB ARE SLOWLY RISING CLOSER TO MVFR
LEVELS THIS HOUR AS RADIATIONAL HEATING BECOMES MORE DIRECT. IN
SPITE OF CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE WINDS...AM EXPECTING STRATUS TO
THIN OUT AROUND 21Z AND RESTORE VFR LEVELS. SHOULD NOT SEE A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF LOG CLOUDS TONIGHT AS WINDS IN THE LOWEST
5K FEET WILL BE VEERING MORE S-SWLY AND PULLING IN DRIER AIR.
AT CDS...EXPECT VFR STRATUS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ADVECTS WESTWARD FROM NORTHWEST TX AND SWRN OK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
UPDATE...
MOIST ELY SURFACE FLOW IS ONCE AGAIN PROVING MORE ROBUST THAN
00Z AND 06Z MODELS HAD ANTICIPATED. MOISTURE DEPTH HAS RECENTLY
INCREASED AS SHOWN BY STRATUS LOWERING A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT
LUBBOCK AND LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK. RECENT RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR LEGITIMATE IN
KEEPING THIS STRATUS LAYER LARGELY INTACT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUFFICIENTLY THINNING WITH DIABATIC HEATING. LACK OF A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACT TO KEEP THIS MOIST
FETCH IN PLACE LONGER...SO ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH 20Z...HIGH TEMPS WERE TRENDED 3-6 DEG COOLER MAINLY ON
THE CAPROCK WHERE UPSLOPE LIFT WILL PERSIST. NO OTHER UPDATES AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 61 99 60 96 58 / 10 0 0 0 10
TULIA 62 96 64 96 63 / 10 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 63 96 66 97 64 / 10 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 64 98 67 100 63 / 10 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 65 98 68 101 65 / 10 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 65 100 66 100 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 65 98 68 100 64 / 10 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 65 95 68 100 68 / 10 10 10 0 10
SPUR 64 94 68 100 69 / 10 10 10 0 10
ASPERMONT 65 96 70 101 71 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1040 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
MOIST ELY SURFACE FLOW IS ONCE AGAIN PROVING MORE ROBUST THAN
00Z AND 06Z MODELS HAD ANTICIPATED. MOISTURE DEPTH HAS RECENTLY
INCREASED AS SHOWN BY STRATUS LOWERING A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT
LUBBOCK AND LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK. RECENT RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR LEGITIMATE IN
KEEPING THIS STRATUS LAYER LARGELY INTACT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUFFICIENTLY THINNING WITH DIABATIC HEATING. LACK OF A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACT TO KEEP THIS MOIST
FETCH IN PLACE LONGER...SO ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH 20Z...HIGH TEMPS WERE TRENDED 3-6 DEG COOLER MAINLY ON
THE CAPROCK WHERE UPSLOPE LIFT WILL PERSIST. NO OTHER UPDATES AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS AND VISBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING
AT KLBB AND THEN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT KCDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AFTER THE CONDITIONS IMPROVE...WINDS WILL
BE ALLOWED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO BETWEEN 10 AND 12
KNOTS. LOW STRATUS AND VISBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY WILL BE A QUASI REPEAT OF YESTERDAYS EVENTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL FLATTEN WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL LOWER TODAY
THE THICKNESS VALUES WILL RISE. LOW STRATUS FILTERED INTO THE AREA
HOURS AGO AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL MORNING. THESE LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP EARLIER THAN OBSERVED YESTERDAY THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON THURSDAY.
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...ANOTHER REPEAT OF LOW STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE CLOUDS
TO BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CAPPED. JDV
LONG TERM...
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN SATURDAY SHOULD MIX AND ERODE OUT TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE DAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT
RETURNS TO THE AREA. FLATTENED RIDGE WILL SHIFT JUST TO THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW SKIRTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SATURDAY WILL TURN HOTTER AS A RESULT WHILE WINDS WILL
BECOME LOW-END BREEZY. WITH THE STRONG HEATING...AND A SLIGHT
SURGE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES WE MAY SEE A
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD THOUGH SEEMS UNLIKELY FOR EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PUNCH THROUGH WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16
DEGREES CENTIGRADE. SUNDAY MORE OF THE SAME THOUGH BEGINNING WARM
AND DRY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT BREEZES AND
SHOULD BE OUR HOTTEST DAY COMING UP. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
HEADING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAGGING
SOUTHWARD.
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE UPPER LOW DIVERGE FROM THIS POINT...BUT
STILL DIP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...LEADING TO FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURES CONTRAST NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. BUT STILL TOO DRY FOR HOPE OF THUNDER
ALONG BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL WINDS THEN SHOULD STEER MORE EASTERLY
WITH MOISTURE SPREADING BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDER CHANCES BY LATE
TUESDAY IF NOT A BIT EARLIER BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR POPS
PRIOR TO THIS. SOUTHEAST COMPONENT WEDNESDAY APPEARS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL. THURSDAY AND EVEN FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES AGAIN AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO SHUT
DOWN THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN...WE WILL RETAIN DRY FORECAST STILL FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ALL-IN-ALL...VERY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 83 61 99 60 96 / 10 10 0 0 0
TULIA 81 62 96 64 96 / 10 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 78 63 96 66 97 / 10 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 80 64 98 67 100 / 10 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 79 65 98 68 102 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 88 65 100 66 100 / 10 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 83 65 98 68 100 / 10 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 84 65 95 68 100 / 10 10 10 10 0
SPUR 82 64 95 68 101 / 10 10 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 85 65 96 70 101 / 10 10 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
458 PM PDT Sat Jun 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The wet, cool and breezy weather will be replaced by drier and more
seasonal weather for Sunday and into early next week. On Tuesday
through the end of next week westerly flow will be over the area
with a series of weak systems passing through. This will result in
a chance for showers especially during the afternoon and evening
hours. The best chances will be in the mountains of Northern
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: The pesky cutoff low responsible for the cool
and wet weather today, will slowly exit the region over the next
12-24 hours. Currently this feature is circulating over northwest
Montana, while a wet northerly flow drops in from BC. This was
depicted well in the 295k surface with strong isentropic lift
through this afternoon and tapering off this evening. Under the
west northwest flow, showers will linger in the Idaho panhandle as
supported by the orographic flow overnight. Based the pops and
weather mostly on the HRRR models in the near term and leaned to a
NAM/GFS blend into Sunday. The low level westerly flow has mixed
the surface with occasional gusty winds in the rain-free area of
the lower Columbia basin, to the Palouse and LC valley. The cross
Cascade surface pressure gradients have been increasing and this will
enhance the wind speeds in the lee of the Cascades into the
evening hours, especially in the Wenatchee area with gusts near
the wind advisory criteria. The showers and winds will be tapering
off overnight as low center creeps further east and the dry slot
in the northwest flow moves over central Washington. A chance of
showers will redevelop over northeast Washington and north Idaho
by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will moderate on Sunday, warming
about 5-10 degrees over today, but still remain below normal for
early June. /rfox.
Sunday night through Tuesday...Through this portion of the
forecast high pressure will track through the region followed by
zonal flow as the next upstream weather disturbance begins to
effect the region.
The axis of the ridge of high pressure will be on the coast by
Sunday evening, then track east across the Inland Northwest Sunday
night, before flattening on Monday. The models are also very
similar in showing a weak short wave disturbance moving through the
ridge. There is little in the way of moisture associated with this
wave and the likely results will be some alto-cumulus
development. The aforementioned wave will increase winds slightly
out of the southwest Monday with gusts around 10-15 mph. Temperatures
will rise to near seasonal normals.
Late Monday afternoon through Tuesday the ridge will flatten
resulting in westerly zonal flow and increasing Pacific moisture.
A few weak waves will pass through the region resulting in a few
showers over the Cascades Monday night and increasing across the
northern Washington mountains and Idaho Panhandle mountains
Tuesday. These showers will need a little help with orographics
and will be tied to the terrain. A slightly stronger wave is expected
late Tuesday afternoon. In addition both the GFS and NAM are
indicating surface based cape and negative LI`s stretching from
just east of republic south to the Blue mountains. With the
stronger wave acting as a kicker showers will be a little heavier
and more widespread across the eastern half of the forecast area.
The instability will be strong enough to support embedded thunderstorms
and these were kept in the forecast and the area expanded slightly
south. /Tobin
Tuesday night through Saturday...Models are in good agreement
concerning the long wave pattern in the extended with a
progressive west to northwest flow with a series of weak systems
passing across southern British Columbia, Northern Washington, and
the Idaho Panhandle. The trajectory of these waves will keep a
threat of showers in the forecast especially over the northern
mountains where the best lift and instability will lie with each
passing wave. GFS and ECMWF also show enough instability such that
isolated thunderstorms may develop over the Northeast Washington
Mountains and Idaho Panhandle. Models do show some
timing/strength differences with each wave so confidence in the
exact details is low. Given prevailing west- northwest flow there
is higher confidence of dry conditions throughout the extended
period in the Wenatchee and Moses Lake areas. Temperatures are
expected to be near to slightly below normal through the period. /JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Abundant moisture will continue to move across Eastern
Washington and North Idaho through 05-10z on the back side of a
closed low over western Montana. This will bring continued -RA to
KGEG/KCOE/KSFF/KPUW/KLWS terminals with a mix of MVFR and VFR
ceilings. Rain will ease by 12z as the low tracks eastward away
from the area but abundant low level moisture and low level upslope
flow will result in MVFR conditions at these same TAF sites except
KLWS. The lower levels will be drying out beginning around 15z with
rising CIGS, with all TAF sites expected to have VFR conditions
Saturday by 19z.
Over North Central Washington a tight pressure gradient will lead to
continued windy conditions at KEAT and KMWH with winds expected to
decrease around 03z. The strong downslope west winds will result in
much higher CIGS compared to Eastern Washington with VFR conditions
persisting through 00z Monday. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 43 66 46 72 52 73 / 70 10 0 0 10 40
Coeur d`Alene 44 63 46 71 50 72 / 70 10 10 10 10 40
Pullman 43 63 44 71 48 71 / 80 10 0 0 10 40
Lewiston 47 71 50 78 54 78 / 80 10 0 0 10 40
Colville 45 73 46 76 51 77 / 60 10 10 10 20 40
Sandpoint 44 61 43 70 46 69 / 70 30 10 10 20 50
Kellogg 41 56 44 68 48 69 / 80 50 10 10 20 50
Moses Lake 47 76 49 80 57 81 / 10 0 0 0 10 20
Wenatchee 49 75 52 79 59 79 / 10 0 0 0 10 10
Omak 44 77 46 79 53 80 / 10 10 0 10 10 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Waterville Plateau-
Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1044 AM PDT Fri Jun 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad low pressure system spinning over the region will continue
to fuel widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
through Saturday. Sunday will be a marginally drier day in
Washington...with wet conditions persisting in the Idaho
Panhandle. Temperatures will be well below normal. Temperatures
will temporarily warm to seasonal levels for the beginning of the
work week...but unsettled weather will likely return by the middle
of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Forecast for the rest of today is in good shape with just minor
updates made to the forecast. Satellite imagery shows a closed low
off the Washington coast that will drop southeast moving into
Northwest Oregon this evening. Moist diffluent southerly flow and
lift ahead of the low will trigger showers across the Inland
Northwest today. Increased instability this afternoon will also
aid in shower development with HRRR data indicating increasing
showers over the Inland Northwest this afternoon. A cold pool at
500mb will track over the area this afternoon with values of -25
to -27C over the area. Instability will be greatest over the
Cascades which is in closest proximity to the cold pool with the
low...and over the northern mountains where low level moisture is
highest. LAPS analysis as of 17z (10 am) already was indicating
surface based CAPES of 200-600 J/KG in these areas. Thus isolated
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. Numerous
rain showers are expected in the mountains as well as the Okanogan
and Methow Valleys today with scattered showers elsewhere. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An unstable atmosphere this afternoon under a cold
trough will promote increasing showers as well as isolated
thunderstorms. These storms will be focused mainly over the
Cascades, mountains near the Canadian Border, and over the Blue
Mountains. However can not completely rule out a thunderstorm at
any of the TAF sites. But given low probability of one storm
impacting a TAF site left mention out of forecast with CB cloud
group mentioned. The showers should begin to decrease after 03z
Saturday with the loss of daytime heating. As the low moves east
Saturday morning a band of showers will rotate south out of Canada
into Central and Northeast Washington and the North Idaho
Panhandle 12-18z Sat. Abundant low level moisture and rain may lead
to MVFR conditions at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 59 39 54 43 67 46 / 50 50 80 60 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 60 39 53 46 63 47 / 50 60 80 70 40 10
Pullman 55 37 53 43 62 44 / 50 50 80 60 20 10
Lewiston 60 42 62 48 70 49 / 40 50 70 50 20 0
Colville 61 40 57 47 74 46 / 70 60 80 60 20 10
Sandpoint 60 38 53 45 60 45 / 70 70 80 70 50 20
Kellogg 56 39 49 42 56 44 / 70 80 80 80 70 10
Moses Lake 64 44 67 48 76 50 / 30 40 40 10 10 0
Wenatchee 62 45 64 49 76 52 / 50 50 20 10 0 0
Omak 62 44 65 46 78 47 / 60 60 60 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1216 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
TODAY...THEN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DAKOTAS...AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MINNESOTA.
REGARDING THE DEEP TROUGH...500MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 2 BELOW
NORMAL. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PROFILER AND RADAR DATA
SHOWED AN 850MB JET OF 30-40 KT FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND WARMTH. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED
850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C IN THIS JET AREA...COMPARED TO 14C AT DLH AND
LA CROSSE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS IS QUITE INTERESTING...WITH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE...I.E. VALUES GREATER THAN 1 INCH...SITTING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. VALUES DROP TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER
MUCH OF KANSAS...MISSOURI AND IOWA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER
MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MINNESOTA WHERE VALUES ARE 1.25 TO
1.5 INCHES. THIS MAXIMA OF MOISTURE IS FUELING CONVECTION THAT HAS
FIRED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL DPVA FORCED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE
ARE ALSO ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PROGGED TO
FLATTEN OUT SOME...IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME FORM OF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST BECAUSE
OF THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE IS CRITICAL TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SINCE IT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE...GRADUALLY SPREADING CAPPING NORTHWARD
AND BRING IN THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SEEN TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION NORTH OF I-94
WHERE 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE A TREND THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE CONVECTION TO LIFT
NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 WHERE DPVA
FROM THE SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH CONTINUED 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
BUILDING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATING THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE
TRACK. IN FACT...THE OVERALL FORCING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FAIRLY
WEAK...AND AS SUCH KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20-40 RANGE.
SHOULD WE GET SOME STORMS IN OUR AREA...MAINLY JUST TAYLOR COUNTY
WOULD HAVE A SHOT TO SEE SEVERE CONVECTION...IN THE 21-03Z WINDOW
WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE QUIET WITH THE MAX
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BREAK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
15-16C BY 18Z...DRY GROUND AND A BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 80S...WITH MOST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A FEW READINGS AROUND 90 ARE POSSIBLE TOO. THE
COMBINATION OF A WARMER DAY TODAY AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE STAYING UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A WARM
SECTOR FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PROGGED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WELL AGREED UPON TO AT MOST IN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS MEANS ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A SLIM SHOT OF
SOMETHING COMING INTO SOUTHEAST MN VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY...IF THE FRONT CAN CONVECT AND CONVECTION CAN SPREAD EAST
FAST ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...WITH THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER THE AREA (LOWEST ON SATURDAY)...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. 850MB TEMPS OF 17-19C ON BOTH DAYS...THE DRY AIRMASS AND DRY
GROUND...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALL FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
MIXING. SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
ALTHOUGH 850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WOULD NORMALLY NOT SUPPORT
RECORD LEVELS...ONLY BEING 1-1.5 ABOVE NORMAL...LA CROSSE AND
ROCHESTER RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 93-96 RANGE. THEREFORE...WE MAY
GET CLOSE TO RECORDS. ANTICIPATING LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE
60S...AIDED BY THE DRY AIRMASS. DID STAY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS/GROUND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST. WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO PARALLEL THE UPPER
FLOW...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN MORE TO EITHER
RIGHT ON THE FRONT OR POST-FRONTAL. THERE ARE DECENT MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS THAT COME INTO THE AREA...ABOUT 50-70 METERS IN 12
HOURS AT 500MB. THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
SURGING UP TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT PLUS THE INCREASING
LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE AND
OELWEIN. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS MEAGER...DUE TO THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
POST-FRONTAL. IN FACT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE 0-6KM SHEAR
IS ONLY 20-25KT. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5-4 KM AND MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ARE NOT FAVORABLE EITHER FOR SEVERE. MAYBE AT MOST WE
END UP WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 60S
ON TAP...PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE 08.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
AND GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIAL
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AT 12Z MONDAY SHOULD HEAD UP INTO ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY BY
TUESDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AGAIN
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINTAINED 60 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS. IN FACT...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE LOCATIONS LIKE
ROCHESTER COULD END UP DRY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR...ALONG WITH
SUBSIDENCE...THEN COMES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DID
MAINTAIN SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS UP...BUT LATER FORECASTS
MAY BE ABLE TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD
END UP AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY...DUE TO
850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C TO 6-10C. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOMINATES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. UPPER
RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD UP INTO OUR AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO AT LEAST
NORMAL BY THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SHAPING
UP AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...LIKE THIS WEEKEND...WELL AGREED UPON
BY THE LAST COUPLE ECMWF...GFS AND CFS RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHT ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO CREATE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND LOOSE THE GUSTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND SHOULD SEE THE GUSTS DEVELOP AGAIN AT BOTH SITES
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH. ONCE THESE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
629 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
TODAY...THEN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DAKOTAS...AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MINNESOTA.
REGARDING THE DEEP TROUGH...500MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 2 BELOW
NORMAL. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PROFILER AND RADAR DATA
SHOWED AN 850MB JET OF 30-40 KT FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND WARMTH. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED
850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C IN THIS JET AREA...COMPARED TO 14C AT DLH AND
LA CROSSE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS IS QUITE INTERESTING...WITH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE...I.E. VALUES GREATER THAN 1 INCH...SITTING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. VALUES DROP TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER
MUCH OF KANSAS...MISSOURI AND IOWA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER
MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MINNESOTA WHERE VALUES ARE 1.25 TO
1.5 INCHES. THIS MAXIMA OF MOISTURE IS FUELING CONVECTION THAT HAS
FIRED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL DPVA FORCED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE
ARE ALSO ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PROGGED TO
FLATTEN OUT SOME...IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME FORM OF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST BECAUSE
OF THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE IS CRITICAL TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SINCE IT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE...GRADUALLY SPREADING CAPPING NORTHWARD
AND BRING IN THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SEEN TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION NORTH OF I-94
WHERE 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE A TREND THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE CONVECTION TO LIFT
NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 WHERE DPVA
FROM THE SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH CONTINUED 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
BUILDING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATING THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE
TRACK. IN FACT...THE OVERALL FORCING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FAIRLY
WEAK...AND AS SUCH KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20-40 RANGE.
SHOULD WE GET SOME STORMS IN OUR AREA...MAINLY JUST TAYLOR COUNTY
WOULD HAVE A SHOT TO SEE SEVERE CONVECTION...IN THE 21-03Z WINDOW
WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE QUIET WITH THE MAX
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BREAK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
15-16C BY 18Z...DRY GROUND AND A BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 80S...WITH MOST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A FEW READINGS AROUND 90 ARE POSSIBLE TOO. THE
COMBINATION OF A WARMER DAY TODAY AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE STAYING UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A WARM
SECTOR FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PROGGED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WELL AGREED UPON TO AT MOST IN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS MEANS ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A SLIM SHOT OF
SOMETHING COMING INTO SOUTHEAST MN VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY...IF THE FRONT CAN CONVECT AND CONVECTION CAN SPREAD EAST
FAST ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...WITH THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER THE AREA (LOWEST ON SATURDAY)...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. 850MB TEMPS OF 17-19C ON BOTH DAYS...THE DRY AIRMASS AND DRY
GROUND...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALL FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
MIXING. SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
ALTHOUGH 850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WOULD NORMALLY NOT SUPPORT
RECORD LEVELS...ONLY BEING 1-1.5 ABOVE NORMAL...LA CROSSE AND
ROCHESTER RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 93-96 RANGE. THEREFORE...WE MAY
GET CLOSE TO RECORDS. ANTICIPATING LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE
60S...AIDED BY THE DRY AIRMASS. DID STAY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS/GROUND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST. WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO PARALLEL THE UPPER
FLOW...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN MORE TO EITHER
RIGHT ON THE FRONT OR POST-FRONTAL. THERE ARE DECENT MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS THAT COME INTO THE AREA...ABOUT 50-70 METERS IN 12
HOURS AT 500MB. THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
SURGING UP TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT PLUS THE INCREASING
LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE AND
OELWEIN. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS MEAGER...DUE TO THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
POST-FRONTAL. IN FACT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE 0-6KM SHEAR
IS ONLY 20-25KT. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5-4 KM AND MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ARE NOT FAVORABLE EITHER FOR SEVERE. MAYBE AT MOST WE
END UP WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 60S
ON TAP...PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE 08.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
AND GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIAL
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AT 12Z MONDAY SHOULD HEAD UP INTO ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY BY
TUESDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AGAIN
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINTAINED 60 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS. IN FACT...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE LOCATIONS LIKE
ROCHESTER COULD END UP DRY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR...ALONG WITH
SUBSIDENCE...THEN COMES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DID
MAINTAIN SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS UP...BUT LATER FORECASTS
MAY BE ABLE TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD
END UP AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY...DUE TO
850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C TO 6-10C. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOMINATES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. UPPER
RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD UP INTO OUR AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO AT LEAST
NORMAL BY THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SHAPING
UP AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...LIKE THIS WEEKEND...WELL AGREED UPON
BY THE LAST COUPLE ECMWF...GFS AND CFS RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
629 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO MN. LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINE FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NEAR BLACK RIVER FALLS WI...NORTH OF THE
RST/KLSE TAF SITES. LOOK FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON FOR MORE SHRA/TS CHANCES. EXPECTING ALL
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES.
ONLY AFFECTS ON THE TAFS SITES WILL BE SCT-BKN MID CLOUD WITH
CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8-9KFT THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25 KT
RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
WINDS OF 10KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
TODAY...THEN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DAKOTAS...AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MINNESOTA.
REGARDING THE DEEP TROUGH...500MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 2 BELOW
NORMAL. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PROFILER AND RADAR DATA
SHOWED AN 850MB JET OF 30-40 KT FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND WARMTH. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED
850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C IN THIS JET AREA...COMPARED TO 14C AT DLH AND
LA CROSSE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS IS QUITE INTERESTING...WITH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE...I.E. VALUES GREATER THAN 1 INCH...SITTING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. VALUES DROP TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER
MUCH OF KANSAS...MISSOURI AND IOWA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER
MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MINNESOTA WHERE VALUES ARE 1.25 TO
1.5 INCHES. THIS MAXIMA OF MOISTURE IS FUELING CONVECTION THAT HAS
FIRED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL DPVA FORCED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE
ARE ALSO ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PROGGED TO
FLATTEN OUT SOME...IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME FORM OF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST BECAUSE
OF THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE IS CRITICAL TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SINCE IT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE...GRADUALLY SPREADING CAPPING NORTHWARD
AND BRING IN THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SEEN TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION NORTH OF I-94
WHERE 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE A TREND THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE CONVECTION TO LIFT
NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 WHERE DPVA
FROM THE SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH CONTINUED 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
BUILDING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATING THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE
TRACK. IN FACT...THE OVERALL FORCING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FAIRLY
WEAK...AND AS SUCH KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20-40 RANGE.
SHOULD WE GET SOME STORMS IN OUR AREA...MAINLY JUST TAYLOR COUNTY
WOULD HAVE A SHOT TO SEE SEVERE CONVECTION...IN THE 21-03Z WINDOW
WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE QUIET WITH THE MAX
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BREAK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
15-16C BY 18Z...DRY GROUND AND A BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 80S...WITH MOST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A FEW READINGS AROUND 90 ARE POSSIBLE TOO. THE
COMBINATION OF A WARMER DAY TODAY AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE STAYING UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A WARM
SECTOR FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PROGGED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WELL AGREED UPON TO AT MOST IN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS MEANS ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A SLIM SHOT OF
SOMETHING COMING INTO SOUTHEAST MN VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY...IF THE FRONT CAN CONVECT AND CONVECTION CAN SPREAD EAST
FAST ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...WITH THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER THE AREA (LOWEST ON SATURDAY)...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. 850MB TEMPS OF 17-19C ON BOTH DAYS...THE DRY AIRMASS AND DRY
GROUND...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALL FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
MIXING. SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
ALTHOUGH 850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WOULD NORMALLY NOT SUPPORT
RECORD LEVELS...ONLY BEING 1-1.5 ABOVE NORMAL...LA CROSSE AND
ROCHESTER RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 93-96 RANGE. THEREFORE...WE MAY
GET CLOSE TO RECORDS. ANTICIPATING LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE
60S...AIDED BY THE DRY AIRMASS. DID STAY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS/GROUND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST. WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO PARALLEL THE UPPER
FLOW...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN MORE TO EITHER
RIGHT ON THE FRONT OR POST-FRONTAL. THERE ARE DECENT MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS THAT COME INTO THE AREA...ABOUT 50-70 METERS IN 12
HOURS AT 500MB. THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
SURGING UP TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT PLUS THE INCREASING
LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE AND
OELWEIN. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS MEAGER...DUE TO THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
POST-FRONTAL. IN FACT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE 0-6KM SHEAR
IS ONLY 20-25KT. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5-4 KM AND MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ARE NOT FAVORABLE EITHER FOR SEVERE. MAYBE AT MOST WE
END UP WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 60S
ON TAP...PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE 08.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
AND GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIAL
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AT 12Z MONDAY SHOULD HEAD UP INTO ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY BY
TUESDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AGAIN
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINTAINED 60 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS. IN FACT...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE LOCATIONS LIKE
ROCHESTER COULD END UP DRY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR...ALONG WITH
SUBSIDENCE...THEN COMES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DID
MAINTAIN SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS UP...BUT LATER FORECASTS
MAY BE ABLE TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD
END UP AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY...DUE TO
850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C TO 6-10C. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOMINATES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. UPPER
RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD UP INTO OUR AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO AT LEAST
NORMAL BY THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SHAPING
UP AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...LIKE THIS WEEKEND...WELL AGREED UPON
BY THE LAST COUPLE ECMWF...GFS AND CFS RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY
1120 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES FRIDAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY STILL APPEAR
TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...SO HAVE KEPT THE TAFS DRY
ON FRIDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS THIS FRONT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
KICKS IN. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WITH SOME GUSTS UP IN THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
323 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
THE COLD FRONT REACHED ASPEN AND MONTROSE AROUND 2 AM BASED ON A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND EXTENDED BACK ACROSS SE
UT TO ABOUT PAGE AZ. LATEST HI-RESOLUTION RAP AND HRRR MODELS SHOWED
THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS
SLOWING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SAN JUAN MTNS AND ITS UPPER SUPPORT
WANES...BUT STILL CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
THE PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. TRAILING
ENERGY WILL SWEEP ACROSS NE UT/NW CO THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE AIR WILL
BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION...OR EVEN MUCH CLOUDINESS.
TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
GUSTY CHARACTERISTIC BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS ON SATURDAY. LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST.
A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. PARTS OF
NORTHWEST CO AS WELL AS MANY HIGH MTN VALLEYS COULD SEE FREEZING
TEMPS. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWED LOWS DIPPING BELOW 32F AT CRAIG...
MEEKER...EAGLE AND GUNNISON WHERE FOLKS WITH COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS
SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CLOSELY.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER SUNSHINE MONDAY. A WEAK WAVE
CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS AND UP THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
BUT...BELIEVE THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE TOO DRY FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO
GENERATE ANY PRECIP...AND THE LOW-LEVEL E-SE UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
EASTERN SLOPE TOO WEAK TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
THUS...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
MODIFY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS AGAIN
HINT AT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...BUT WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP.
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BUCKLE THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND. MODELS KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK ALONG
THE USA/CANADA BORDER BUT DO SHOW...TO VARYING DEGREES...TROUGHING
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED...SO A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT
TIMES TODAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
400 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS/HOW COOL TO MAKE IT TODAY...AND
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND EVEN RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD SETTLED
INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA.
MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE JET SEGMENT BEHIND THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO LOW IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET LOOKED TO CAPTURE INCOMING UPPER LOW THE BEST
ALTHOUGH BY 06Z WERE NOT TOO FAR APART. LARGER SCALE MODELS HAVING
A HARD TIME WITH THE INCOMING FRONT. PARTICULARLY THEY WERE HAVING
TROUBLE WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE SMALLER MODELS...HRRR/RUC...WERE CATCHING THE
PRESSURE WIND FIELD THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS INITIALLY CATCHING THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THE BEST. ALSO THE HRRR/RUC WERE DOING FINE
WITH THIS AS WELL.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE HOW STRONG TO MAKE THE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE IT IS BARELY
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OR A SOLID ADVISORY. STILL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAST THE MODELS BRING IT IN AND HOW MUCH TO COOL THE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. NAM/RUC/HRRR WERE STILL BRINGING AN EXTREMELY
TIGHT GRADIENT AND VERY HIGH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF UP TO 10 MB.
THIS IS SHOWN BY THE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM WERE
GUSTING UP TO AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS. HRRR WAS BRINGING 40+ KNOT GUSTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES HAVING
THE LOWEST GUSTS.
AS A RESULT...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z FOR THE WEST AND
FROM 15Z TO 21Z FOR THE EAST. IF FRONT COMES IN FASTER MAY HAVE
READJUST THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS HAVE DONE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES AND WILL HAVE SOME THINK CLOUDS THIS MORNING. PROBLEM
IS THAT MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL RATHER MILD. PER THE RUC/HRRR
ADJUSTED MAXES DOWN EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND SOUTH.
JET COMING IN DURING THE NIGHT IS FURTHER NORTH THAN LAST NIGHT.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAINLY AFFECTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AFTER 06Z. MODELS DID CHANGE IN ANOTHER AWAY. THEY ARE MORE UNSTABLE
WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE INDICATED PLUS THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RESPONSE FROM THE RATHER STRONG MESOSCALE MID
LEVEL FORCING AND MODERATE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SO INSERTED SOME
THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WAS IS INTERESTING IS THAT GEFS AND
SREFS PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE HAVE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION. DOES MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING ABOVE DISCUSSION
BUT AM NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THAT YET. BUT DID RAISE POPS INTO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT. RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH MAY KEEP CLOUDS AROUND. NAM NWP/2 METER HAVE BEEN DOING
BEST BUT DO NOT WANT TO WARM IT UP TOO MUCH DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE
WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVES AWAY DURING THE
NIGHT. ALSO SOME WEAK LIFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WILL NOT BE
TERRIBLY UNSTABLE DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND FRONT.
HOWEVER...NEW GUIDANCE MATCHED CURRENT FORECAST WELL AND MADE NO
CHANGES.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE QPF.
THERE IS INSTABILITY AND SOME KIND OF LIFT MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER...
MODELS DO APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. DOES
APPEAR TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUT DUE TO MODEL
VARIABILITY LEFT THE FORECAST AS IS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE
HUDSON BAY REGION. SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS LEE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
ADVECT UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTH. THESE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS FORCING APPEARS TO BE QUITE WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND HOURS.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012
WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AND BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS...SHOULD DO SO UNTIL THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA.
DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF VARIABLE BUT GUSTY WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT SEVERAL HOURS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING IF NOT EXCEEDING 40 KTS. COULD ALSO SEE PERIODIC MVFR
CIGS AND HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 02Z MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-029.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY FOR NEZ079-080.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER/PM
AVIATION...FOLTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
345 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
THE FOLLOWING CHART ANALYSIS WAS CONDUCTED USING THE 10.00Z CONSTANT
PRESSURE MAPS VIA THE RAOB NETWORK. THE 250 HPA MAP SHOWED A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET WITH THE TROF AXIS FROM WESTERN ALBERTA
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. A JET MAX OF 100 KT WAS OBSERVED FROM
KUIL (QUILLAYUTE, WA) TO KSLE (SALEM, OR). ANOTHER 115 KT WAS FORECAST
BY THE RAP MODEL SINCE IT WAS BETWEEN UPPER AIR SITES ACROSS SE MONTANA.
FARTHER EAST, ANOTHER 100 KT NORTHWESTERLY JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO. AT 500 HPA, A 550 DM CYCLONE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
ALBERTA INTO MONTANA. COLD H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG C WAS OBSERVED
AT KTFX (GREAT FALLS, MT) TO KBOI (BOISE, ID). ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL LOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS LOUISIANA WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM
OF SAID PRESSURE PERTURBATION. AT 700/850 HPA, THE EML EXTENDED ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH H7 TEMPERATURES IN THE 12 TO 16 DEG C RANGE.
850 HPA TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
33 DEG C AT KMAF (MIDLAND, TX) TO 23 DEG C AT KABR (ABERDEEN, SD). SOME
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF COAST LOW. AT THE SFC, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDED
FROM THIS LOW REACHED INTO WYOMING. CLOSER TO KANSAS, A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW 60S DEG F ACROSS WC/SC KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
TODAY:
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. AT
08Z, THE FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, IT WAS WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S DEG F AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S DEG F. THE HRRR IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE POSITION
OF THE FRONT. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR IN THE VERY SHORT TERM AND
THEN THE NAM LATER TODAY WITH FRONTAL TIMING. I DID COOL MY NORTHWEST
COUNTIES DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES. THE BCCONSRAW OUTPUT WAS USED WITH A
FEW ALTERATIONS AS BOISE VERIFICATION SHOWS THIS MODEL IS OUTPERFORMING
OTHER GUIDANCE. THERE IS A LOW END CONCERN FOR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. WITH THE FROPA, THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT GIVEN THE QUICK WINDOW
OF THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS, THOUGHT
IT WAS BEST TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AROUND 80 DEG F TOWARDS SCOTT CITY TO AROUND 91 DEG F AT MEDICINE
LODGE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT
DUE TO THE VERY STOUT EML WITH 700 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST AROUND
15 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON "COOLING" OFF TO AROUND 12 DEG C BY TONIGHT.
TONIGHT:
I HAVE RAMPED UP POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE EML WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO COOLING OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE
WILL BE A WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TOWARDS MEDICINE LODGE. ML/MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH 45 KT OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. MARGINAL 700-500 HPA LAPSE RATES OF 7.0
C/KM AND 500-300 HPA LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.1 C/KM SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANVIL LEVEL SR WINDS ARE FAIRLY
DECENT AT 37 KT BUT THE FACT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE BASED WILL LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HAIL BIGGER THAN QUARTERS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS WITH
50S & 60S DEG F EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
BY EARLY MONDAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT AT 12Z MONDAY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ALSO BE LOCATED NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVES ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATING SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING NEAR THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH AT 12Z MONDAY WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN THIS FORCING, MOISTURE, AND LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
STARTS TO DROP SOUTH.
ON MONDAY NIGHT 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND I310 ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEGINS TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 800MB LEVEL
WHICH WILL BE WHERE THIS LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SO HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY HAVE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHICH IS WHERE THIS LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SO THE INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 6 TO 10C RANGE BY 00Z TUESDAY. AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK AND WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
IMPROVES A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK AND THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL START TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. BASED ON THESE WARMING 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES THE HIGHS LATE WEEK AREA EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST AS
WARM AS THOSE CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE 06Z TAFS FROM THE 00Z TAFS AS THE OVERALL
TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. I DO HAVE A CONCERN THAT KHYS
MIGHT SEE NEAR 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA SINCE
THIS TERMINAL WILL BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER CORE OF SFC-0.5 KM WINDS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH BY MID MORNING.
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE TERMINALS DUE TO STRONG EML AND RELATED CAPPING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 59 86 60 / 0 20 20 10
GCK 83 57 85 58 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 85 57 85 59 / 0 10 10 20
LBL 88 61 87 61 / 0 20 20 20
HYS 83 58 86 57 / 0 10 10 10
P28 91 65 88 63 / 0 30 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
509 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RATHER DEEP TROF FOR
EARLY JUNE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE TROF HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING ACTIVE CLUSTERS OF TSRA OVER NRN ONTARIO DURING THE
NIGHT. INCREASINGLY CAPPED AIRMASS TO THE S AS EVIDENT COMPARING 00Z
KINL SOUNDING TO KMPX SOUNDING WILL ENSURE THAT ANY PERSISTENT
CONVECTION REMAINS N OF THE AREA THRU THE MORNING. OF NOTE ON
UPSTREAM 00Z KMPX/KDVN SOUNDINGS IS NOT ONLY THE CAPPED AIR MASS BUT
THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. AS A RESULT...QUITE A LARGE
AREA ACROSS IA/SRN WI/NRN IL HAD SFC DWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE 40S
YESTERDAY AFTN. WITH THE DRY AIR ADVECTING TO UPPER MI TODAY...WILL
GO AT OR BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE FOR AFTN DWPTS (50 TO 55F) OVER
ROUGHLY THE W HALF WHICH WILL HAVE DEEPEST MIXING. E IS A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO MARINE LAYER OFF LAKE MI WORKING TO KEEP
MIXING DEPTHS LWR. WILL OPT TO HOLD DWPTS TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
NEAR LAKE MI LOWERING TO THE MID 50S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
THE DRY COLUMN...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL TO MIX ALL THE WAY
TO 750-700MB. KMPX/KDVN SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS AT AROUND
800MB YESTERDAY. UTILIZING THAT HEIGHT ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LWR 90S AWAY FROM LAKE MI INFLUENCE. IF
SOMEHOW MIXING DEPTH DID REACH 750-700MB...TEMPS WOULD TOP OUT IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS 25-30KT...THERE WILL BE
GUSTY S WINDS TODAY TO 25-30MPH...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
ONTONAGON AND BARAGA WILL LIKELY BE WARMEST. WILL GO WITH HIGHS UP
TO 94F IN THOSE AREAS. S WIND NOT AS FAVORABLE AS A SW WIND FOR PEAK
HEAT IN MARQUETTE...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO TOP 90F THERE.
DRY/CAPPED AIR MASS OBVIOUSLY ARGUES FOR DRY WEATHER TODAY...AND IN
FACT THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
TONIGHT...MID/UPPER TROF MOVES E WITH AXIS REACHING ERN DAKOTAS/WRN
MN BY MON MORNING. FOR SUMMER...IMPRESSIVE 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
UPWARDS OF AROUND 150M SHIFT NE INTO NRN ONTARIO BY MON MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ONE VORT MAX MOVING THRU THE TROF. WITH BEST HEIGHT
FALLS PASSING WELL TO THE NW OF HERE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING DURING DIURNAL MIN...CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE AS IT ARRIVES IN UPPER MI. AT THIS
POINT...CHC POPS WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF LIKELY POPS SPREADING INTO
THE W OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. NAM SHOWS MLCAPE ONLY UPWARDS
OF 400 J/KG SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH THE GFS JUST A
FEW HUNDRED HIGHER. ALTHOUGH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS
OF 30KT OVERSPREADS THE RIBBON OF INSTABILITY...THE INSTABILITY
PROBABLY WON`T BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SVR. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 60S/AROUND 70F GENERALLY THE RULE. SOME
COOLING WILL OCCUR LATE OVER THE W AS FRONT PASSES AND WINDS TAKE ON
A COMPONENT OFF THE LAKE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
THE PERIOD STARTS 12Z MON WITH A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM
MANITOBA TO ERN SD. THE CORRESPONDING 990MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO...WITH A TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER WCENTRAL UPPER MI. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK
BENEATH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SD/ND/MN BORDERS. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND OTHER FEATURES WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT MON MORNING...BUT CAPE
WILL BE SKINNY AND BELOW 500J/KG SO NO SEVERE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED...AND PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT IS WELL TO THE W AND THERE WILL BE A CAP IN
PLACE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES E...BUT THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP AND MERGE WITH THE FIRST OVER ERN
UPPER MI BY 00Z TUE. BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO WRN UPPER MI...SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP OVER THE W WITH THE SECOND FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.P. AS THE
TWO TROUGHS/FRONT MERGE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET MOVE OVER. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO SOME
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAPE VALUES STILL DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE...EVEN AS SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S...DUE TO CAPPING AND DRY AIR AND THE FACT THAT THE COLDER MID
LEVELS ARE STILL TO THE W. STILL COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS IN
THE EVENING OVER THE E...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND LOW CAPE.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES MON WILL NOT LAST INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL CWA BY 18Z
TUE...DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND 0-2C WITH NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
WINDS. THIS LEADS TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
IN THE 60S INLAND. DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
SW TUE...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD
TUE NIGHT AFTER A COOL DAY TUE...WENT WITH LOWER END OF GUIDANCE ON
TEMPS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FRONT INLAND TUE NIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA WED...AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
UP TO A CWA AVG OF 9C BY 00Z THU. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S. MOVES ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE IN FROM THE W LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT...GENERATING SOME
SMATTERS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION FOR THE PRECIP DURING THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS/QPF.
EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND THU THROUGH SAT AS SLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEPICTED BY MODELS. MODELS SHOW
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
STATES...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z NEXT SUN.
THIS LEAVES THE CWA MOSTLY DRY UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN SOME PRECIP MAY
BE MOVING INTO THE W THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS VEERING
MORE SRLY AT CMX SHOULD MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WITH
STRONGER WINDS SLIDING IN OVERHEAD SHOULD SEE LLWS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DECOUPLED. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KMQT RADAR
INDICATES SW WIND AT ABOUT 30KT AT 500FT AGL. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY. STRONGER LLWS IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF
AT IWD TIL AFT 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
ALTHOUGH NOT ALWAYS EASY TO SEE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT NIGHT...IT
APPEARS THAT FOG OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
IS DIMINISHING AND IS NOW CONFINED CLOSE TO THE MN SHORE AND AROUND
ISLE ROYALE. WITH WINDS OVER THE LAKE BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHERLY AND
SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING NORTHWARD...FOG MAY BE GONE BY MID AFTN.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THIS EVENING THRU MON AFTN. IT`S POSSIBLE FOG MAY REDEVELOP FOR
A TIME IF RAINFALL DOES OCCUR OVER THE LAKE.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF/COLD FRONT...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE S BY LATE
AFTN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY
INCREASE TO 15-25KT TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE HIGHEST OBSERVING PLATFORMS MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND
30KT THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROF WHICH PASSES MON NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR
WILL BOOST W/NW WINDS TO 15-25KT MON NIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15KT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES. WINDS
WILL THEN LIKELY STAY MOSTLY UNDER 15KT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
REMAINS IN THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB/ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY...THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED FROM MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN
SIDE AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS. 110KT JET SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM
WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA WAS AIDING COMPLEX OF STORMS NOW
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES EXTENDED FROM SOUTH DAKOTA CONVECTION INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CAPPING
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS WILL BUILD/DEVELOP SOUTH BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. AND IR SATELLITE PICTURES WERE SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE PANHANDLE...LENDING CREDENCE TO HRRR
PRECIP FORECAST FARTHER SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE STEADILY SOUTHEAST...ENTERING OUR FAR NORTHWEST
CWA AROUND 15Z BASED ON GFS/HRRR FORECASTS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS CAPPING PROHIBITS WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH OMAHA TO LINCOLN LINE
AROUND 21Z WHEN RIBBON OF MID 60S DEW POINTS WILL LIE JUST AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MODELS OVER-FORECASTING DEW
POINTS...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE-BASED CAPES SHOULD BE NEAR 2000 J/KG
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH CAP ERODING AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE
85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY MODEST IN OUR AREA
WHERE MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK. BUT INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR-SEVERE DOWNBURSTS.
FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN SWEEPING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SEEING RAIN CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...USHERING IN EVEN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK
TOWARD 80 THEN...BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON MONDAY
NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO RETURN...AIDED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE
LATEST RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WEST
OF OUR AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD ROLL INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE
UNSETTLED THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST IS NOW ADVERTISED TO BE MORE OPEN THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO RULE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO INITIATE RAIN CHANCES
FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GOING FORECAST
ALREADY HAD SMALL PRECIP CHANCES GOING...THUS WILL ONLY HAVE TO
TWEAK POPS UPWARD A TAD LATE IN THE WEEK.
DERGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK
PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. KEPT MENTION OF THIS AT ALL
THREE SITES UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE.
00Z NAM MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON SITUATION FOR
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FELT PROBABILITIES WERE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION TSRA IN
A PROB30 GROUP AT KOMA AND KLNK WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000 AND
5000 FEET. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO AROUND 2500 FEET AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT ALL THREE SITES.
MILLER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
149 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL COME TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARKENING OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE ALOFT THAT WAS RIDING SOUTHEAST.
THIS WAVE WILL CROSS NY AND NE PA OVERNIGHT AND LEAD TO LIFTING
AND DESTABILIZATION ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY AND THE EXTREME NE PART OF
PENNSYLVANIA BTWN 03Z AND 08Z OR SO. THE NAM AND RAP ALL SHOW
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE USING
A PARCEL FROM 800 MB. IN ANY EVENT...THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WHICH WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THE ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED AND REALLY MARGINAL
WE DON/T EXPECT ANY SEVERE. I HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH INCLUDES NC
AND EC NY AND EXTREME NE PA. KEPT MAINLY CHC POPS OR SLIGHTLY LESS
IN WC NY AND THE REST OF NE PA.
AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES BY THE WARM FRONT WILL RE-ORIENT ITSELF TO
EXTEND FROM ABT UCA SOUTHWARD TO THE POCONOS OR SO. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH INSOLATION ON SUNDAY TO THE TUNE OF
500-1000 J/KG. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS MARGINAL SUNDAY BUT WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER IN NE PA AND SC NY SO WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS FOR SCT
SHRA/TSRA MAINLT SRN PORTION OF CWA. PLUS THE FLOW WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW AIR FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO STABILIZE
A LARGE PART OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION INTO THE HIGHLANDS OF
CNTRL NY. HENCE HAVE LOWER POPS IN THE ISLD CATEGORY FOR THESE
AREAS SUNDAY. SINCE CAPES AND SHEAR ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE NO SEVERE
IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW THE OLD SFC BNDRY LINGERING OVER THE ERN ZONES INTO
MON DESPITE THE RDGG ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF
CONV SHWRS AND ISLTD TRWS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE ERN ZONES.
OTRW...RDG LINE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THRU THE PD ALLOWING A SFC TROF
AND SRN STREAM WV TO APRCH FOR TUE. MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE SYSTEM
TO BE WELL SUPPLIED WITH MOISTURE AS IT LFTS NWRD OUT OF THE GULF.
DVLPG UA JET BY TUES AHD OF THE SFC COLD FNT WILL HELP WRING OUT
THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON TUE. LUCKILY...SYSTEM SEEMS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST THRU THE SHRT TERM PD...WITH GFS FCSTD PWS
OF BETTER THAN 1.50 INCHES.
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THE PD...ESP SUN AND MON WITH TEMPS
PUSHING 90F IN THE LWR ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN AND WRN ZONES. ATTM
IT APPEARS WE WILL BE WELL BLO ANY HEAT FLAG THRESHOLDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PD BEGINS AS A COLD FNT IS PUSHING THRU THE FCST AREA. INITIAL
TIMING AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS IS GOOD...THEN THE GFS DVLPS A
WV ALONG THE FNT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...DELAYING THE EWRD
PROGRESS ON WED. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME SHWRS AND TRWS TO LINGER
OVER THE ERN ZONES INTO THU. ECMWF INDICATES SOME TROFINESS OVER
WRN NEW ENG AS WELL...SO BEST BET FCST IS TO CONT SOME CHANCE POPS
THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PD...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OVER THE EAST
NEARER THE STALLED FNT OR SFC TROF. ALSO...BOTH MODELS SHOW ONLY
WEAK RDGG SFC AND ALOFT THRU THE PD...SO SOME CONV PSBL AT ALMOST
ANY TIME.
DFRNCS IN THE SFC PTRN DID MAKE SOME DFRNC IN THE FCSTD TEMPS FOR
THE PD. DECIDED TO START WITH HPC GUID FOR TEMPS...THEN BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS BASED GUID TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY
AND TO BETTER COMPROMISE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTENING ACTIVITY FOR OVER AN HOUR, AND EVEN
WHEN IT WAS SHOWING UP, THERE WERE VERY FEW STRIKES, SO TOOK MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS. THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH
HAVE NOT BEEN LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES THUS FAR. HOWEVER, THEY
ARE SUPPLYING SOME SFC MOISTURE, THAT, IF SKIES CLEAR, MAY PRODUCE
SOME FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THINGS WILL CLEAR UP AFTER SUNRISE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE ARE TODAY, BUT MODELS ARE
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN THE MID LEVELS THAT LOOKS TO INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. BUT, IF THE CAP TURNS OUT TO NOT BE
A STRONG AS CURRENTLY THOUGHT, TSRA COULD BE ADDED INTO THE TAFS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP TO AROUND 5 KTS OUT
OF THE NW THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT VLY FOG PSBL EACH MRNG.
TUE...VFR GIVING WAY TO MVFR IN SCT TSRA
WED...VFR.
THU...VFR XCPT MVFR IN SCT TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/SLI
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...SLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
125 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. AS THIS HAPPENS, MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
80S. IT WILL ALSO BECOME MORE HUMID MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT SUNDAY...FCST UPDATE UPCOMING TO FINE TUNE CLOUDS
AND TEMPS/DWPTS ACRS OUR CWA. CRNT IR SATL PIC SHOWS A BAND OF MID
LVL CLOUDS STREAMING ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN VT...MAINLY
ALONG A KMSS TO KSLK TO KVSF LINE. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A POOL
OF HIGHER SFC DWPTS WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE U50S SLV TO U40S DACKS TO
U30S/L40S NEK OF VT. ALSO...IF THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP...WHICH IS
SUGGESTED BY LATEST SATL TRENDS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WL DEVELOP
ACRS SLV AND DACKS. RUC 13 SHOWS SFC TO 900MB RH INCREASING BTWN
08-12Z...SO HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST, MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THINGS. DEWPOINTS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT WHILE HIGHER
HUMIDITY CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE 50S. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS, SO PERHAPS
A SPRINKLE OR TWO FOR THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY. WITH
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AND IT`S EXPECTED THAT THE NORMALLY
COLD SPOTS IN THE PROTECTED HOLLOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER
30S (THOUGH NO FROST EXPECTED). PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FOG, BUT WITH
THE DRIER DEWPOINTS DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH THERE.
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, THE NEARNESS OF THE BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS
A LITTLE BIT OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT MORE. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY ALSO LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE PATCHY FOG, SO I
ONLY KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST TO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.
JUST AS A SIDE NOTE REGARDING TEMPERATURES -- EXPECT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND THE COOLER AIR
FLOWS DOWN THE MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL END UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FOR
EXAMPLE, I`M GOING 50F FOR MT MANSFIELD AND 48 HERE IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY WEATHER CHANGE FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING WARMTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET
ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE JUST TO OUR EAST, MEANWHILE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP ALOFT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL ADVECT
IN MUCH WARMER AIR. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 11-14C LEVEL
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO THE 14-16C RANGE MONDAY. WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED, WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT INTO
THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY.
INITIALLY DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE SUNDAY, BUT
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING UP THE DEWPOINTS BY MONDAY.
PROBABLY HIGH ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO START TO FEEL MORE HUMID.
DESPITE THE WARMTH AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL CAPE, THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL
CAPPING, SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS. JUST A NOTE FOR
THOSE LOOKING AT RAW OUTPUT OF THE NAM AND GFS -- BOTH THOSE
MODELS SEEM TO BE ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS ON
MONDAY IN THE MID 70S! THIS IN TURN GIVES A CONSIDERABLE BULLSEYE
IN INSTABILITY FIELDS AND THE MODELS ARE EVEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
SOME CONVECTION. SUCH HIGH DEWPOINTS ARE NOT BELIEVABLE, SO HAVE
THUS IGNORED ANY OF THOSE "HINTS" WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SUNDAY. IN FACT, ANTICIPATING LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BREEZE TO FULLY DEVELOP, SO LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
PITTSBURGH AND WESTERLY WINDS IN BURLINGTON BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
A LITTLE MORE WIND ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT.
PERHAPS SOME GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 15 KNOTS. THE WIND WILL STAY UP
ON MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY WARM (MOST EVERYONE STAYING IN THE 60S FOR LOWS) AND
PROBABLY NOT ALL THAT COMFORTABLE OF A SLEEPING NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CLEARING THE WAY FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AN EXTENSIVE MOISTURE PLUME WITH
TELECONNECTING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE ALLOWING FOR MORE
EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES...THE QPF GRADIENT WILL BE ORIENTED WEST
TO EAST WITH HIGHEST TOTALS FOR TUESDAY APPROACHING 0.25 INCHES IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTEND TO THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY SUPPORTING FOR THIS SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLS NORTHWARD AND THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80
DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50 TO LOW 60S...SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY MAY NOT WARM AS MUCH AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST REGION
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
REMAINING IN THE MID 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK SHUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...GFS SHOWS UPPER FLOW MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY WITH CHANCES
OF PRECIP CONTINUING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO CANADA SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM
THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE TERRAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...AVIATION FOCUS WL BE POTENTIAL IFR AT SLK/MSS
THIS MORNING. IR SATL TRENDS SHOW MID LVL CLOUDS BREAKING UP ACRS
NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH SOME BR DEVELOPING AT SLK/OGS. RUC13
AND NAM12 SHOW MID LVL CLOUDS DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACRS
THIS REGION...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF BL MOISTURE DEVELOPING AS SFC
DWPTS HOLD IN THE U50S TO L60S. THIS RH...COMBINED WITH LIGHT SFC
WINDS WL HELP TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR AT SLK/MSS BTWN 08Z-
11Z THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER WITH
TEMPS NOT REACHING THE CROSS POINT...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING
FOG/BR TO DEVELOP AT MPV/PBG/RUT/BTV. WINDS WL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...EXCEPT 140@05KT AT RUT THRU 13Z THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH PRES AND BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WL PREVAIL
TODAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCAITED SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU TUES
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS FA LATE TUES INTO WEDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME
FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WEDS MORNING AND
AGAIN ON THURS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
103 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. AS THIS HAPPENS, MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
80S. IT WILL ALSO BECOME MORE HUMID MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT SUNDAY...FCST UPDATE UPCOMING TO FINE TUNE CLOUDS
AND TEMPS/DWPTS ACRS OUR CWA. CRNT IR SATL PIC SHOWS A BAND OF MID
LVL CLOUDS STREAMING ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN VT...MAINLY
ALONG A KMSS TO KSLK TO KVSF LINE. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A POOL
OF HIGHER SFC DWPTS WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE U50S SLV TO U40S DACKS TO
U30S/L40S NEK OF VT. ALSO...IF THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP...WHICH IS
SUGGESTED BY LATEST SATL TRENDS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WL DEVELOP
ACRS SLV AND DACKS. RUC 13 SHOWS SFC TO 900MB RH INCREASING BTWN
08-12Z...SO HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST, MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THINGS. DEWPOINTS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT WHILE HIGHER
HUMIDITY CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE 50S. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS, SO PERHAPS
A SPRINKLE OR TWO FOR THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY. WITH
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AND IT`S EXPECTED THAT THE NORMALLY
COLD SPOTS IN THE PROTECTED HOLLOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER
30S (THOUGH NO FROST EXPECTED). PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FOG, BUT WITH
THE DRIER DEWPOINTS DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH THERE.
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, THE NEARNESS OF THE BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS
A LITTLE BIT OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT MORE. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY ALSO LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE PATCHY FOG, SO I
ONLY KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST TO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.
JUST AS A SIDE NOTE REGARDING TEMPERATURES -- EXPECT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND THE COOLER AIR
FLOWS DOWN THE MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL END UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FOR
EXAMPLE, I`M GOING 50F FOR MT MANSFIELD AND 48 HERE IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY WEATHER CHANGE FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING WARMTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET
ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE JUST TO OUR EAST, MEANWHILE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP ALOFT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL ADVECT
IN MUCH WARMER AIR. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 11-14C LEVEL
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO THE 14-16C RANGE MONDAY. WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED, WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT INTO
THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY.
INITIALLY DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE SUNDAY, BUT
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING UP THE DEWPOINTS BY MONDAY.
PROBABLY HIGH ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO START TO FEEL MORE HUMID.
DESPITE THE WARMTH AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL CAPE, THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL
CAPPING, SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS. JUST A NOTE FOR
THOSE LOOKING AT RAW OUTPUT OF THE NAM AND GFS -- BOTH THOSE
MODELS SEEM TO BE ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS ON
MONDAY IN THE MID 70S! THIS IN TURN GIVES A CONSIDERABLE BULLSEYE
IN INSTABILITY FIELDS AND THE MODELS ARE EVEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
SOME CONVECTION. SUCH HIGH DEWPOINTS ARE NOT BELIEVABLE, SO HAVE
THUS IGNORED ANY OF THOSE "HINTS" WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SUNDAY. IN FACT, ANTICIPATING LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BREEZE TO FULLY DEVELOP, SO LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
PITTSBURGH AND WESTERLY WINDS IN BURLINGTON BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
A LITTLE MORE WIND ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT.
PERHAPS SOME GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 15 KNOTS. THE WIND WILL STAY UP
ON MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY WARM (MOST EVERYONE STAYING IN THE 60S FOR LOWS) AND
PROBABLY NOT ALL THAT COMFORTABLE OF A SLEEPING NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CLEARING THE WAY FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AN EXTENSIVE MOISTURE PLUME WITH
TELECONNECTING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE ALLOWING FOR MORE
EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES...THE QPF GRADIENT WILL BE ORIENTED WEST
TO EAST WITH HIGHEST TOTALS FOR TUESDAY APPROACHING 0.25 INCHES IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTEND TO THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY SUPPORTING FOR THIS SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLS NORTHWARD AND THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80
DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50 TO LOW 60S...SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY MAY NOT WARM AS MUCH AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST REGION
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
REMAINING IN THE MID 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK SHUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...GFS SHOWS UPPER FLOW MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY WITH CHANCES
OF PRECIP CONTINUING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO CANADA SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM
THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE TERRAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMPV LATE TONIGHT. AFTER 15Z
SUNDAY...EXPECT MID CLOUDS TO MOVE OFF WITH ONLY FEW-SCT DIURNAL
MOUNTAIN CUMULUS FORMING.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRUDGES ACROSS THE REGION.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...VERY MOIST AIR ATTENDANT TO A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...
TONIGHT:
WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO EASTWARD SHIFT OF A 1019MB SURFACE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RESPONDED...
RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT WARMER THAN THIS
SAME TIME LAST NIGHT.
CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SPREAD
INTO THE AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY
SHEAR AXIS EMANATING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE BROAD MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND MOVING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
AS SUCH...EXPECT TO SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...
PRODUCING GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CLOUDS AND THE
MODERATING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH MORNING
LOWS PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 60S. -CBL
SUNDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO HOLD OVER THE
REGION...THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND
REMAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING CENTRAL NC MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
BRINGING IN MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THEY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE A LITTLE MORE OVER WESTERN NC. AS A RESULT...THEY SHOW MORE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CWA
FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NOT AS WARM ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST (WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS FOR A LONGER PART OF
THE DAY) AND AM GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE NEAR
90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...850MB WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS
SC...ITS NWD PROGRESS IMPEDED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NW-SE
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY WEAKENS...ALLOWING THE
850MB WARM FRONT TO EDGE NWD INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY MONDAY.
DEVELOPING S-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO USHER VERY MOIST AIR INTO
CENTRAL NC. PRECIP WATER VALUES PROJECTED TO INCREASE BY 100 PERCENT
FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING WITH PW VALUES BY EARLY MONDAY
1.5-1.8 INCHES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED AHEAD OF THE 850MB WARM
FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER OUR W-SW
COUNTIES BY SUNDAY EVENING...PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR
REGION MAY HOLD OFF RAIN THREAT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT (4-6 HOURS
LATER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS). STILL...DO NOT PLAN TO CHANGE LITTLE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH PARAMETERS IN
PLACE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH...ALONG WITH
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE...WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT MINS
3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 60S.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
LATE SUNDAY LIFTS NEWD...NUDGED ALONG BY A DEEPER TROUGH CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MON AM...THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL BE IN THE
TN VALLEY AND CONTINUE TO INCH SLOWLY ENE. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
AN OPEN FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE CAROLINA.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE GREATEST IN THE WEST VERSUS EAST AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER ORGANIZED LIFT WILL RESIDE IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT COMPARED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS MAY BE
MORE UNSTABLE IN THE EAST SINCE THIS REGION MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL
SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVERAGE...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS LOW-MID 80S. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
MORNING WITH CONVERGENT... THOUGH WEAK NEAR SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF
IT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT AROUND TWO INCHES WITH
POTENTIAL ENERGY RISING ABOVE 2500 JOULES/KILOGRAM. SOME SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ALMOST ANY TIME TUESDAY... BUT CHANCES ARE
CERTAINLY HIGHEST WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND NEAR AND EAST OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH (HIGHWAY ONE AND EAST). GIVEN SOMEWHAT SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT A FLOODING THREAT WILL EXIST. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
PRESENT THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LOADING OF DOWNDRAFTS AND
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS.
THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TROUGHS REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY... AND WINDS SHIFT TOWARD NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE
AIR COLUMN IN THE WEST DRYS OUT WITH MINIMAL DRYING EAST. POTENTIAL
ENERGY FOR THE AFTERNOON IS FORECAST ABOVE 2500 ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION IN THE WEST COULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ABSENT IF DRYING
ALOFT IS SIGNIFICANT. MORE COVERAGE IN THE EAST BUT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN 50 PERCENT. LOW LEVEL TRIGGERS OTHER THAN HEATING SEEM ABSENT
THOUGH MODELS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT IN A POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST... BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS REDUCED
FROM TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY WEST.
WITH LOSS OF HEATING... MOST CONVECTION SHOULD END IN THE EVENING
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY. LESS COVERAGE WEDNESDAY BUT NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL TEMPER EXPECTED HIGHS FROM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES 65 TO 70 UNDER MUGGY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM...
THE ECMWF SOLUTION FROM THE SATURDAY MORNING MODEL RUN IS NOW THE
CONSENSUS WITH SURFACE FLOW GENERALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCE DURING THIS PERIOD NO MORE THAN SLIGHT AND
HIGHEST FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW SHIFTING MORE TOWARD EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THURSDAY WILL NOSE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT THEN REMAIN STATIC INTO
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY MID 60S WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...
CONTINUED RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE MAY SPARK A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF KINT/KGSO/KFAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...BUT
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR KCLT AND POINTS
SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL AFTER THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THE APPROACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO CAUSE MVFR RANGE
STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND AFFECT KINT AND POSSIBLY KGSO BY
AROUND 06Z. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...RELATIVELY STRONGEST BETWEEN 7-11 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD: THE MVFR RANGE STRATUS WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS...
AND SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL THEN LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO DRIER VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/KRR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
301 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...VERY MOIST AIR ATTENDANT TO A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...
TONIGHT:
WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO EASTWARD SHIFT OF A 1019MB SURFACE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RESPONDED...
RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT WARMER THAN THIS
SAME TIME LAST NIGHT.
CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SPREAD
INTO THE AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY
SHEAR AXIS EMANATING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE BROAD MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND MOVING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
AS SUCH...EXPECT TO SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...
PRODUCING GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CLOUDS AND THE
MODERATING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH MORNING
LOWS PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 60S. -CBL
SUNDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO HOLD OVER THE
REGION...THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND
REMAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING CENTRAL NC MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
BRINGING IN MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THEY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE A LITTLE MORE OVER WESTERN NC. AS A RESULT...THEY SHOW MORE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CWA
FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL
WAVE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NOT AS WARM ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST (WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS FOR A LONGER PART OF
THE DAY) AND AM GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE NEAR
90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...850MB WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS
SC...ITS NWD PROGRESS IMPEDED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NW-SE
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY WEAKENS...ALLOWING THE
850MB WARM FRONT TO EDGE NWD INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY MONDAY.
DEVELOPING S-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO USHER VERY MOIST AIR INTO
CENTRAL NC. PRECIP WATER VALUES PROJECTED TO INCREASE BY 100 PERCENT
FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING WITH PW VALUES BY EARLY MONDAY
1.5-1.8 INCHES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED AHEAD OF THE 850MB WARM
FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER OUR W-SW
COUNTIES BY SUNDAY EVENING...PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR
REGION MAY HOLD OFF RAIN THREAT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT (4-6 HOURS
LATER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS). STILL...DO NOT PLAN TO CHANGE LITTLE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH PARAMETERS IN
PLACE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH...ALONG WITH
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE...WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT MINS
3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 60S.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
LATE SUNDAY LIFTS NEWD...NUDGED ALONG BY A DEEPER TROUGH CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MON AM...THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL BE IN THE
TN VALLEY AND CONTINUE TO INCH SLOWLY ENE. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
AN OPEN FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE CAROLINA.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE GREATEST IN THE WEST VERSUS EAST AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER ORGANIZED LIFT WILL RESIDE IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT COMPARED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS MAY BE
MORE UNSTABLE IN THE EAST SINCE THIS REGION MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL
SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVERAGE...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS LOW-MID 80S. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
MORNING WITH CONVERGENT... THOUGH WEAK NEAR SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF
IT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT AROUND TWO INCHES WITH
POTENTIAL ENERGY RISING ABOVE 2500 JOULES/KILOGRAM. SOME SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ALMOST ANY TIME TUESDAY... BUT CHANCES ARE
CERTAINLY HIGHEST WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND NEAR AND EAST OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH (HIGHWAY ONE AND EAST). GIVEN SOMEWHAT SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT A FLOODING THREAT WILL EXIST. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
PRESENT THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LOADING OF DOWNDRAFTS AND
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS.
THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TROUGHS REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY... AND WINDS SHIFT TOWARD NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE
AIR COLUMN IN THE WEST DRYS OUT WITH MINIMAL DRYING EAST. POTENTIAL
ENERGY FOR THE AFTERNOON IS FORECAST ABOVE 2500 ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION IN THE WEST COULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ABSENT IF DRYING
ALOFT IS SIGNIFICANT. MORE COVERAGE IN THE EAST BUT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN 50 PERCENT. LOW LEVEL TRIGGERS OTHER THAN HEATING SEEM ABSENT
THOUGH MODELS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT IN A POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE CROSSING
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST... BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS REDUCED
FROM TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY WEST.
WITH LOSS OF HEATING... MOST CONVECTION SHOULD END IN THE EVENING
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY. LESS COVERAGE WEDNESDAY BUT NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL TEMPER EXPECTED HIGHS FROM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES 65 TO 70 UNDER MUGGY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM SATURDAY...
12Z GFS TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH THE EWD TRANSLATION IN THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION TO THE 00Z ECMWF. WHILE
MAY SEE A LINGERING CHANCE POP IN THE COASTAL PLAIN....ESPECIALLY
THU AFTERNOON....OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THE AIR MASS TO
GRADUALLY DRY OUT...LEADING TO LOWER POP CHANCES. BY LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO EXERT
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WITH FEW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...
CONTINUED RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE MAY SPARK A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF KINT/KGSO/KFAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...BUT
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR KCLT AND POINTS
SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL AFTER THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THE APPROACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO CAUSE MVFR RANGE
STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND AFFECT KINT AND POSSIBLY KGSO BY
AROUND 06Z. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...RELATIVELY STRONGEST BETWEEN 7-11 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD: THE MVFR RANGE STRATUS WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS...
AND SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL THEN LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO DRIER VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/KRR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
215 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...VERY MOIST AIR ATTENDANT TO A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...
TONIGHT:
WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO EASTWARD SHIFT OF A 1019MB SURFACE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RESPONDED...
RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT WARMER THAN THIS
SAME TIME LAST NIGHT.
CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SPREAD
INTO THE AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY
SHEAR AXIS EMANATING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE BROAD MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND MOVING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
AS SUCH...EXPECT TO SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...
PRODUCING GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CLOUDS AND THE
MODERATING AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH MORNING
LOWS PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 60S. -CBL
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PROGGED TO HOLD OVER THE
REGION...THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND
REMAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING CENTRAL NC MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING
IN MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THEY WEAKEN THE RIDGE A LITTLE
MORE OVER WESTERN NC. AS A RESULT...THEY SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP CHANCES MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CWA FOR LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NOT AS WARM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
(WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS FOR A LONGER PART OF THE DAY) AND
AM GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE NEAR 90 DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 301 PM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...850MB WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS
SC...ITS NWD PROGRESS IMPEDED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NW-SE
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY WEAKENS...ALLOWING THE
850MB WARM FRONT TO EDGE NWD INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY MONDAY.
DEVELOPING S-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO USHER VERY MOIST AIR INTO
CENTRAL NC. PRECIP WATER VALUES PROJECTED TO INCREASE BY 100 PERCENT
FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING WITH PW VALUES BY EARLY MONDAY
1.5-1.8 INCHES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED AHEAD OF THE 850MB WARM
FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER OUR W-SW
COUNTIES BY SUNDAY EVENING...PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR
REGION MAY HOLD OFF RAIN THREAT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT (4-6 HOURS
LATER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS). STILL...DO NOT PLAN TO CHANGE LITTLE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH PARAMETERS IN
PLACE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH...ALONG WITH
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE...WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT MINS
3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 60S.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
LATE SUNDAY LIFTS NEWD...NUDGED ALONG BY A DEEPER TROUGH CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MON AM...THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL BE IN THE
TN VALLEY AND CONTINUE TO INCH SLOWLY ENE. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
AN OPEN FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE CAROLINA.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE GREATEST IN THE WEST VERSUS EAST AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER ORGANIZED LIFT WILL RESIDE IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT COMPARED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS MAY BE
MORE UNSTABLE IN THE EAST SINCE THIS REGION MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL
SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVERAGE...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS LOW-MID 80S. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM SATURDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD. THESE FEATURES INTERACTING WITH THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THIS FEATURE PROJECTED TO ONLY INCH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. DUE TO THE WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT...COULD SEE SHOWERS
AND STORMS CROSS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATION...LEADING TO
MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. AS ELUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS WILL
LIKELY HAVE STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...LEADING TO PRECIP
LOADING. THIS IN TURN MAY CAUSE A FEW WET MICROBURSTS EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CONSIDERABLE AND PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THOUGH THE HUMID AIR MASS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER WARM/STICKY. MAX TEMPS 80-84. MIN TEMPS
UPPER 60S-NEAR 70.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...12Z GFS TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH THE
EWD TRANSLATION IN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION
TO THE 00Z ECMWF. WHILE MAY SEE A LINGERING CHANCE POP IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN....ESPECIALLY THU AFTERNOON....OVERALL TREND WILL BE
FOR THE AIR MASS TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT...LEADING TO LOWER POP
CHANCES. BY LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.
WITH FEW CLOUDS/SHOWERS...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...
CONTINUED RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE MAY SPARK A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF KINT/KGSO/KFAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...BUT
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR KCLT AND POINTS
SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL AFTER THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THE APPROACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO CAUSE MVFR RANGE
STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND AFFECT KINT AND POSSIBLY KGSO BY
AROUND 06Z. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...RELATIVELY STRONGEST BETWEEN 7-11 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD: THE MVFR RANGE STRATUS WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS...
AND SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL THEN LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO DRIER VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/KRR
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1128 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXITING THE AREA VIA NE AND WILL LEAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS
IN IT/S WAKE. AREAS MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST SD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS PRIMARY COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN ND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO WESTERN
NEB. SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA WITH STRONG JET
WRAPPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT.
EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS FOR AREAS FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL SD AS SECONDARY FRONT REACHED MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN
PLACE OVER THESE AREAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST SD INTO CENTRAL SD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET IS
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY...SOUTHEASTERN MT...AND INTO FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD.
HAVE UPDATED TO RAISE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR WESTERN SD.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL ND...WITH SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL SD AND WESTERN NEB.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALBERTA...WITH
STRONG JET WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM FROM THE OREGON COAST TO
WESTERN WY AND EASTERN MT. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET...CROSSING
NORTH CENTRAL WY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. BRISK NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
THE MID 90S OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER
TONIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWESTERN SD. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL
DECREASE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER IN THIS AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD. CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 3000 J/KG ARE
PROGGED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING WITH SHEAR INCREASING
DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SD
AS MAIN COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA AND SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN. SHORT RANGE MODELS DISAGREE
SOME ON POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF WINDS OVERNIGHT. NAM AND RUC ARE
STRONGEST WITH THE WINDS...SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER THE RAP AREA AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WEST CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE. WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPPER
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
PLEASANTLY COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR MOST AREAS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR TSTMS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH
MID WEEK. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE WRN CONUS. THIS MAY LEAD TO
INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTMS...WITH TEMPS STAYING QUITE WARM.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR BUTTE-CUSTER CO PLAINS-
HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO
PLAINS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT
FOOT HILLS.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1029 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS PRIMARY COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN ND THROGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO WESTERN
NEB. SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA WITH STRONG JET
WRAPPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT.
EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS FOR AREAS FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL SD AS SECONDARY FRONT REACHED MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN
PLACE OVER THESE AREAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST SD INTO CENTRAL SD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET IS
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY...SOUTHEASTERN MT...AND INTO FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD.
HAVE UPDATED TO RAISE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR WESTERN SD.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT.
&&
AVIATION...00Z TAFS UPDATE
SHRA/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
WESTERN SD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL SD. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONT. GUSTS OVER 40KTS POSSIBLE...
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLKHLS
INCLUDING THE KRAP TERMINAL. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NE WY EARLY SUN MORNING...INCLUDING THE
KGCC TERMINAL.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL ND...WITH SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL SD AND WESTERN NEB.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALBERTA...WITH
STRONG JET WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM FROM THE OREGON COAST TO
WESTERN WY AND EASTERN MT. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET...CROSSING
NORTH CENTRAL WY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. BRISK NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
THE MID 90S OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER
TONIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWESTERN SD. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL
DECREASE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER IN THIS AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD. CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 3000 J/KG ARE
PROGGED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING WITH SHEAR INCREASING
DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SD
AS MAIN COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA AND SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN. SHORT RANGE MODELS DISAGREE
SOME ON POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF WINDS OVERNIGHT. NAM AND RUC ARE
STRONGEST WITH THE WINDS...SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER THE RAP AREA AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WEST CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE. WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPPER
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
PLEASANTLY COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR MOST AREAS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR TSTMS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH
MID WEEK. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE WRN CONUS. THIS MAY LEAD TO
INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTMS...WITH TEMPS STAYING QUITE WARM.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR BUTTE-CUSTER CO PLAINS-
HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO
PLAINS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT
FOOT HILLS.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
257 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
257 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH ANY SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGING...NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS AT MPX AND DVN NEAR 0.7 INCHES...HAS CONTINUED TO
KEEP SKIES CLEAR. A 30-40 KT SOUTHWEST WIND AT 850MB PER PROFILER
DATA STILL EXISTS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES AROUND 18C PER 00Z SOUNDINGS AND
RAP ANALYSIS. THE LOW LEVEL JET TOO IS ALSO HELPING TO BRING
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NOW ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN IOWA AS SEEN ON GOES SOUNDER
IMAGERY. HIGHER MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS IMPINGING ON
DPVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH...LEADING TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THERE NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION LIES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...STRETCHING FROM JUST WEST OF FARGO DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE A 987MB LOW IS PRESENT.
TODAY...THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST...INDUCED PARTLY BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST. BY 00Z MONDAY...THE CORE IS
FORECAST TO BE SITUATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THAT SAME POTENT SHORTWAVE IS GOING TO HELP PULL THE LOW IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UP INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...DRAGGING ITS COLD
FRONT TO AROUND I-35 IN MINNESOTA BY 00Z. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT IT APPEARS I-35 IS ABOUT THE
FARTHEST EASTWARD EXTENT NOW. A DRY...CAPPED AIRMASS PRESENT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST MANY DAYS...IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ON AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE GREATER DPVA CAN INTERACT
WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INCREASING LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. IN FACT...THE FRONTOGENESIS DOES LOOK QUITE STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT IN WESTERN MINNESOTA AT 00Z. GIVEN THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT AT 00Z...HAVE REMOVED THE 20 PERCENT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS PRETTY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY GIVEN 850MB TEMPS HOLDING STEADY AND THE DRY
AIRMASS. HIGHS COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORDS....95 AT LA CROSSE AND
96 AT ROCHESTER. DEFINITELY WINDY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA WHERE MAV/MET GUIDANCE HAVE WINDS AROUND 25 KT AT KRST
AND KTOB. HAVE DECLINED TO ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORY...SINCE IT
APPEARS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA. GUSTS
DEFINITELY LOOK TO BE BELOW ADVISORY...33-34 KT AT MOST.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET A STRONG PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO MANITOBA...NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND
MINNESOTA. GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. AGAIN...THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION STAYS
ON AND BEHIND THE FRONT...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GREATER HEIGHT
FALLS...LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER.
REGARDING THE MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO
CLIMB TO 1.5 TO EVEN AS MUCH AS 1.9 INCHES ON AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. NOTE THAT THE HIGHER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT IN A NARROW
RIBBON...SINCE THEY DROP TO 0.5 INCHES ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF THE
FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION ON AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE EVENING...SINCE MLCAPE VALUES OF 900-1200 J/KG AT 00Z WILL BE
FRONTOGENETICALLY LIFTED BACK TO THE WEST. NOTE THAT THIS
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EVENING WHERE
BOWING SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT ON THE FRONT DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY AND 0-3KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. NO HAIL
ANTICIPATED GIVEN DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR ON AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ONLY
25-30KT LIMITING STORM HEIGHT. SEVERE RISK...THEREFORE...IS REALLY
RESTRICTED WEST OF A LINE FROM WABASHA MN TO NEW HAMPTON IOWA. WITH
THE STRONG FORCING IN THE EVENING...PRECIPITATION LOOKS CERTAIN WEST
OF THAT LINE. AS THE NIGHT ROLLS ON...MODEL FORECASTS HAVE THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENING...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE
DYING INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AND BREAK
UP. BY 12Z MONDAY...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT JUST SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. AND BY 18Z...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE DRY SLOT OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN PLACE. TAILORED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO FOLLOW
THIS IDEA...WHICH IS ALSO VERY WELL AGREED UPON BY HIGHER RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS. OVERALL...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
850MB TEMPS DO COOL TO 12-16C BY 18Z MONDAY...THUS ANTICIPATED A
COOLER DAY...BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE. TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH IS SOME COOLER 850MB TEMPS...
TANKING TO 4-7C BY 18Z TUESDAY. SOME MODELS LIKE THE 10.00Z NAM EVEN
SUGGEST TAYLOR COUNTY SEEING THE 850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C AT 12Z.
ANY LOWER CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE THERMAL TROUGH LOOK TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH...SO PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD BE SEEN ON TUESDAY. STILL...MIXING
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB TEMPS ONLY RESULTS IN HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WINDS SHOULD START OFF BREEZY IN THE
MORNING...THEN DECREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA BUILDS IN. THAT BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 50S...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TAYLOR AND
CLARK COUNTY COULD SEE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. ONE ITEM OF NOTE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING. A BAND OF STRATUS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH IT. TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE MOST
PART LOOKS QUIET AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND ALLOWS THE DRY
SURFACE HIGH TO ONLY DRIFT TO THE EAST. ONE THING TO WATCH IS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW...REACHING THE SIOUX FALLS
AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE 10.00Z NAM/GFS. NOT
INTRODUCING ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT...SINCE THAT WILL
STAY OFF TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE NIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CHILLY
NIGHT LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER WISCONSIN WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS...WHICH RESULTS IN SOME LOWER 40S IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
257 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
10.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THEY ALL
INDICATE THAT THE ZONAL FLOW THAT DEVELOPED TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION
TO TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING BACK OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THIS...QUESTIONS EXIST ON HOW QUICK
THE WESTERN TROUGHING PROGRESSES EASTWARD...WITH THE 10.00Z GFS
SEEMING TO BE TOO FAST COMPARED TO ITS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF. THIS IS
A TYPICAL BIAS OF THE GFS TOO. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN THE LONG TERM
CLOSER TOWARDS THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE TROUGHING BOTTLED UP OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK PRETTY LOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. ONE FOCUS POINT
IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I-90 WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MAY BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIP. THEREFORE...CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT. NEXT FORECAST
MAY BE ABLE TO PULL THESE. REMOVED CHANCES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL. NEXT FOCUS
POINT FOR PRECIPITATION IS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UNDER THE
ASSUMPTION THAT SOME HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE OCCURRING WITH THE WESTERN
TROUGH MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST. KEPT FRIDAY NIGHT CHANCES AROUND 20 AND
IN SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THESE THEN SPREAD EAST ON SATURDAY. IT
IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD COULD BE DRY TOO...EITHER FROM THE
TROUGH BEING SLOWER OR THE AIRMASS NOT BEING AS MOIST AS MODELS
ADVERTISE. CERTAINLY THE MAINLY DRY DAYS EXPECTED THIS MONDAY
THROUGH BASICALLY FRIDAY WILL END UP EVAPOTRANSPORATING ANY RAIN
RECEIVED FROM TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN 10-12C. AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS...850MB TEMPS
CLIMB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT...THERE IS
A CHANCE READINGS COULD GET BACK UP TO NEAR 90 FO
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
1129 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 35KTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS COULD
BRIEFLY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BELOW VFR AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
IN AS WELL. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES LATE IN THE EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
257 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
CLIMATE......AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS/HOW COOL TO MAKE IT TODAY...AND
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND EVEN RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD SETTLED
INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA.
MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE JET SEGMENT BEHIND THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO LOW IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET LOOKED TO CAPTURE INCOMING UPPER LOW THE BEST
ALTHOUGH BY 06Z WERE NOT TOO FAR APART. LARGER SCALE MODELS HAVING
A HARD TIME WITH THE INCOMING FRONT. PARTICULARLY THEY WERE HAVING
TROUBLE WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE SMALLER MODELS...HRRR/RUC...WERE CATCHING THE
PRESSURE WIND FIELD THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS INITIALLY CATCHING THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THE BEST. ALSO THE HRRR/RUC WERE DOING FINE
WITH THIS AS WELL.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE HOW STRONG TO MAKE THE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE IT IS BARELY
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OR A SOLID ADVISORY. STILL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAST THE MODELS BRING IT IN AND HOW MUCH TO COOL THE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. NAM/RUC/HRRR WERE STILL BRINGING AN EXTREMELY
TIGHT GRADIENT AND VERY HIGH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF UP TO 10 MB.
THIS IS SHOWN BY THE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM WERE
GUSTING UP TO AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS. HRRR WAS BRINGING 40+ KNOT GUSTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES HAVING
THE LOWEST GUSTS.
AS A RESULT...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z FOR THE WEST AND
FROM 15Z TO 21Z FOR THE EAST. IF FRONT COMES IN FASTER MAY HAVE
READJUST THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS HAVE DONE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES AND WILL HAVE SOME THICK CLOUDS THIS MORNING. PROBLEM
IS THAT MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL RATHER MILD. PER THE RUC/HRRR
ADJUSTED MAXES DOWN EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND SOUTH.
JET COMING IN DURING THE NIGHT IS FURTHER NORTH THAN LAST NIGHT.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAINLY AFFECTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AFTER 06Z. MODELS DID CHANGE IN ANOTHER AWAY. THEY ARE MORE UNSTABLE
WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE INDICATED PLUS THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RESPONSE FROM THE RATHER STRONG MESOSCALE MID
LEVEL FORCING AND MODERATE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SO INSERTED SOME
THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WAS IS INTERESTING IS THAT GEFS AND
SREFS PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE HAVE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION. DOES MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING ABOVE DISCUSSION
BUT AM NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THAT YET. BUT DID RAISE POPS INTO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT. RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH MAY KEEP CLOUDS AROUND. NAM NWP/2 METER HAVE BEEN DOING
BEST BUT DO NOT WANT TO WARM IT UP TOO MUCH DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE
WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVES AWAY DURING THE
NIGHT. ALSO SOME WEAK LIFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WILL NOT BE
TERRIBLY UNSTABLE DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND FRONT.
HOWEVER...NEW GUIDANCE MATCHED CURRENT FORECAST WELL AND MADE NO
CHANGES.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE QPF.
THERE IS INSTABILITY AND SOME KIND OF LIFT MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER...
MODELS DO APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. DOES
APPEAR TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUT DUE TO MODEL
VARIABILITY LEFT THE FORECAST AS IS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE
HUDSON BAY REGION. SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS LEE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
ADVECT UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTH. THESE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS FORCING APPEARS TO BE QUITE WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND HOURS.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
OR WILL SHORTLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH. ONCE THE WINDS
DECREASE THEY WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS. NOT SURE HOW
FAR SOUTH THOSE CEILINGS SO HANDLED IT WITH TEMPO GROUPS.
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR KGLD LATER TONIGHT. SINCE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND IT IS LATER ON IN THE PERIOD
CHOSE NOT TO MENTION ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY FOR KSZ001-002-013-
014-027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-029.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY FOR NEZ079-080.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER/PM
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
THE FOLLOWING CHART ANALYSIS WAS CONDUCTED USING THE 10.00Z CONSTANT
PRESSURE MAPS VIA THE RAOB NETWORK. THE 250 HPA MAP SHOWED A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET WITH THE TROF AXIS FROM WESTERN ALBERTA
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. A JET MAX OF 100 KT WAS OBSERVED FROM
KUIL (QUILLAYUTE, WA) TO KSLE (SALEM, OR). ANOTHER 115 KT WAS FORECAST
BY THE RAP MODEL SINCE IT WAS BETWEEN UPPER AIR SITES ACROSS SE MONTANA.
FARTHER EAST, ANOTHER 100 KT NORTHWESTERLY JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO. AT 500 HPA, A 550 DM CYCLONE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
ALBERTA INTO MONTANA. COLD H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG C WAS OBSERVED
AT KTFX (GREAT FALLS, MT) TO KBOI (BOISE, ID). ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL LOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS LOUISIANA WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM
OF SAID PRESSURE PERTURBATION. AT 700/850 HPA, THE EML EXTENDED ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH H7 TEMPERATURES IN THE 12 TO 16 DEG C RANGE.
850 HPA TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
33 DEG C AT KMAF (MIDLAND, TX) TO 23 DEG C AT KABR (ABERDEEN, SD). SOME
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF COAST LOW. AT THE SFC, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDED
FROM THIS LOW REACHED INTO WYOMING. CLOSER TO KANSAS, A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW 60S DEG F ACROSS WC/SC KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
TODAY:
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. AT
08Z, THE FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, IT WAS WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S DEG F AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S DEG F. THE HRRR IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE POSITION
OF THE FRONT. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR IN THE VERY SHORT TERM AND
THEN THE NAM LATER TODAY WITH FRONTAL TIMING. I DID COOL MY NORTHWEST
COUNTIES DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES. THE BCCONSRAW OUTPUT WAS USED WITH A
FEW ALTERATIONS AS BOISE VERIFICATION SHOWS THIS MODEL IS OUTPERFORMING
OTHER GUIDANCE. THERE IS A LOW END CONCERN FOR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. WITH THE FROPA, THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT GIVEN THE QUICK WINDOW
OF THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS, THOUGHT
IT WAS BEST TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AROUND 80 DEG F TOWARDS SCOTT CITY TO AROUND 91 DEG F AT MEDICINE
LODGE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT
DUE TO THE VERY STOUT EML WITH 700 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST AROUND
15 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON "COOLING" OFF TO AROUND 12 DEG C BY TONIGHT.
TONIGHT:
I HAVE RAMPED UP POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE EML WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO COOLING OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE
WILL BE A WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TOWARDS MEDICINE LODGE. ML/MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH 45 KT OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. MARGINAL 700-500 HPA LAPSE RATES OF 7.0
C/KM AND 500-300 HPA LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.1 C/KM SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANVIL LEVEL SR WINDS ARE FAIRLY
DECENT AT 37 KT BUT THE FACT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE BASED WILL LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HAIL BIGGER THAN QUARTERS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS WITH
50S & 60S DEG F EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
BY EARLY MONDAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT AT 12Z MONDAY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ALSO BE LOCATED NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVES ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATING SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING NEAR THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH AT 12Z MONDAY WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN THIS FORCING, MOISTURE, AND LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
STARTS TO DROP SOUTH.
ON MONDAY NIGHT 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND I310 ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEGINS TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 800MB LEVEL
WHICH WILL BE WHERE THIS LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SO HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY HAVE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHICH IS WHERE THIS LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SO THE INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 6 TO 10C RANGE BY 00Z TUESDAY. AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK AND WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
IMPROVES A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK AND THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL START TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. BASED ON THESE WARMING 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES THE HIGHS LATE WEEK AREA EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST AS
WARM AS THOSE CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 10Z. HRRR AND RAP DOING A DECENT JOB ON
TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WILL USE THESE MODELS AS A GUIDE
FOR THE WIND SHIFT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS LATER
THIS MORNING. AS THIS FRONT PASSES GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO
26KTS WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE AFTER FROPA BUT THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITHIN ONE
TO TWO HOURS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW VFR SCT-BKN DECK...MAINLY AT HYS UNTIL 18Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 59 86 60 / 10 20 20 10
GCK 83 57 85 58 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 85 57 85 59 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 88 61 87 61 / 10 20 20 20
HYS 83 58 86 57 / 10 10 10 10
P28 91 65 88 63 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
726 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RATHER DEEP TROF FOR
EARLY JUNE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE TROF HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING ACTIVE CLUSTERS OF TSRA OVER NRN ONTARIO DURING THE
NIGHT. INCREASINGLY CAPPED AIRMASS TO THE S AS EVIDENT COMPARING 00Z
KINL SOUNDING TO KMPX SOUNDING WILL ENSURE THAT ANY PERSISTENT
CONVECTION REMAINS N OF THE AREA THRU THE MORNING. OF NOTE ON
UPSTREAM 00Z KMPX/KDVN SOUNDINGS IS NOT ONLY THE CAPPED AIR MASS BUT
THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. AS A RESULT...QUITE A LARGE
AREA ACROSS IA/SRN WI/NRN IL HAD SFC DWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE 40S
YESTERDAY AFTN. WITH THE DRY AIR ADVECTING TO UPPER MI TODAY...WILL
GO AT OR BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE FOR AFTN DWPTS (50 TO 55F) OVER
ROUGHLY THE W HALF WHICH WILL HAVE DEEPEST MIXING. E IS A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO MARINE LAYER OFF LAKE MI WORKING TO KEEP
MIXING DEPTHS LWR. WILL OPT TO HOLD DWPTS TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
NEAR LAKE MI LOWERING TO THE MID 50S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
THE DRY COLUMN...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL TO MIX ALL THE WAY
TO 750-700MB. KMPX/KDVN SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS AT AROUND
800MB YESTERDAY. UTILIZING THAT HEIGHT ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LWR 90S AWAY FROM LAKE MI INFLUENCE. IF
SOMEHOW MIXING DEPTH DID REACH 750-700MB...TEMPS WOULD TOP OUT IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS 25-30KT...THERE WILL BE
GUSTY S WINDS TODAY TO 25-30MPH...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
ONTONAGON AND BARAGA WILL LIKELY BE WARMEST. WILL GO WITH HIGHS UP
TO 94F IN THOSE AREAS. S WIND NOT AS FAVORABLE AS A SW WIND FOR PEAK
HEAT IN MARQUETTE...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO TOP 90F THERE.
DRY/CAPPED AIR MASS OBVIOUSLY ARGUES FOR DRY WEATHER TODAY...AND IN
FACT THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
TONIGHT...MID/UPPER TROF MOVES E WITH AXIS REACHING ERN DAKOTAS/WRN
MN BY MON MORNING. FOR SUMMER...IMPRESSIVE 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
UPWARDS OF AROUND 150M SHIFT NE INTO NRN ONTARIO BY MON MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ONE VORT MAX MOVING THRU THE TROF. WITH BEST HEIGHT
FALLS PASSING WELL TO THE NW OF HERE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING DURING DIURNAL MIN...CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE AS IT ARRIVES IN UPPER MI. AT THIS
POINT...CHC POPS WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF LIKELY POPS SPREADING INTO
THE W OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. NAM SHOWS MLCAPE ONLY UPWARDS
OF 400 J/KG SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH THE GFS JUST A
FEW HUNDRED HIGHER. ALTHOUGH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS
OF 30KT OVERSPREADS THE RIBBON OF INSTABILITY...THE INSTABILITY
PROBABLY WON`T BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SVR. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 60S/AROUND 70F GENERALLY THE RULE. SOME
COOLING WILL OCCUR LATE OVER THE W AS FRONT PASSES AND WINDS TAKE ON
A COMPONENT OFF THE LAKE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
THE PERIOD STARTS 12Z MON WITH A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM
MANITOBA TO ERN SD. THE CORRESPONDING 990MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO...WITH A TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER WCENTRAL UPPER MI. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK
BENEATH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SD/ND/MN BORDERS. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND OTHER FEATURES WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT MON MORNING...BUT CAPE
WILL BE SKINNY AND BELOW 500J/KG SO NO SEVERE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED...AND PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT IS WELL TO THE W AND THERE WILL BE A CAP IN
PLACE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES E...BUT THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP AND MERGE WITH THE FIRST OVER ERN
UPPER MI BY 00Z TUE. BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO WRN UPPER MI...SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP OVER THE W WITH THE SECOND FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.P. AS THE
TWO TROUGHS/FRONT MERGE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET MOVE OVER. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO SOME
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAPE VALUES STILL DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE...EVEN AS SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S...DUE TO CAPPING AND DRY AIR AND THE FACT THAT THE COLDER MID
LEVELS ARE STILL TO THE W. STILL COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS IN
THE EVENING OVER THE E...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND LOW CAPE.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES MON WILL NOT LAST INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL CWA BY 18Z
TUE...DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND 0-2C WITH NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
WINDS. THIS LEADS TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
IN THE 60S INLAND. DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
SW TUE...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD
TUE NIGHT AFTER A COOL DAY TUE...WENT WITH LOWER END OF GUIDANCE ON
TEMPS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FRONT INLAND TUE NIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA WED...AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
UP TO A CWA AVG OF 9C BY 00Z THU. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S. MOVES ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE IN FROM THE W LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT...GENERATING SOME
SMATTERS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION FOR THE PRECIP DURING THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS/QPF.
EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND THU THROUGH SAT AS SLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEPICTED BY MODELS. MODELS SHOW
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
STATES...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z NEXT SUN.
THIS LEAVES THE CWA MOSTLY DRY UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN SOME PRECIP MAY
BE MOVING INTO THE W THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/DEEP MIXING TODAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF DECOUPLING
TONIGHT...LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRES
TROF. KIWD/KSAW ARE MORE LIKELY TO RETAIN GUSTY SFC WINDS AND THUS
PRECLUDE LLWS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG TROF WILL LIKELY BE
DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE INTO UPPER MI LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW...
INCLUDED -SHRA ONLY AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT. IF SHRA HOLD TOGETHER...
THEY WOULD REACH KCMX AROUND THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD AND KSAW
MON MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
ALTHOUGH NOT ALWAYS EASY TO SEE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT NIGHT...IT
APPEARS THAT FOG OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
IS DIMINISHING AND IS NOW CONFINED CLOSE TO THE MN SHORE AND AROUND
ISLE ROYALE. WITH WINDS OVER THE LAKE BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHERLY AND
SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING NORTHWARD...FOG MAY BE GONE BY MID AFTN.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THIS EVENING THRU MON AFTN. IT`S POSSIBLE FOG MAY REDEVELOP FOR
A TIME IF RAINFALL DOES OCCUR OVER THE LAKE.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF/COLD FRONT...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE S BY LATE
AFTN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY
INCREASE TO 15-25KT TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE HIGHEST OBSERVING PLATFORMS MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND
30KT THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROF WHICH PASSES MON NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR
WILL BOOST W/NW WINDS TO 15-25KT MON NIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15KT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES. WINDS
WILL THEN LIKELY STAY MOSTLY UNDER 15KT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
REMAINS IN THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
639 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS ERN NEB THIS
AFTN. LATEST SFC OBS DEPICTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN WRN KS WITH
PRE-FRONTAL INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NEWD INTO ERN SD WITH THE WIND
SHIFT LINE SITUATED FROM KHON TO KGLD. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT
FROPA AT KOFK AROUND 19Z...KOMA 21Z...AND KLNK 22Z. THE FROPA AT
KOFK WILL BE TOO SOON TO CONSIDER ANY PCPN ACTIVITY BUT SHOULD
SEE TSRA/IFR DEVELOPMENT AS BNDRY APPROACHES KOMA/KLNK. UNTIL
THEN EXPECT SLY WIND GUSTS 20-25KT. ALSO...CROSS WINDS THREAT WILL
INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS LEADING UP TO FROPA THIS AFTN. VFR THEN
PREVAILING FROM THIS EVENING THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PD.
DEE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY...THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED FROM MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN
SIDE AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS. 110KT JET SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM
WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA WAS AIDING COMPLEX OF STORMS NOW
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES EXTENDED FROM SOUTH DAKOTA CONVECTION INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CAPPING
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS WILL BUILD/DEVELOP SOUTH BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. AND IR SATELLITE PICTURES WERE SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE PANHANDLE...LENDING CREDENCE TO HRRR
PRECIP FORECAST FARTHER SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE STEADILY SOUTHEAST...ENTERING OUR FAR NORTHWEST
CWA AROUND 15Z BASED ON GFS/HRRR FORECASTS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS CAPPING PROHIBITS WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH OMAHA TO LINCOLN LINE
AROUND 21Z WHEN RIBBON OF MID 60S DEW POINTS WILL LIE JUST AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MODELS OVER-FORECASTING DEW
POINTS...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE-BASED CAPES SHOULD BE NEAR 2000 J/KG
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH CAP ERODING AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE
85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY MODEST IN OUR AREA
WHERE MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK. BUT INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR-SEVERE DOWNBURSTS.
FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN SWEEPING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SEEING RAIN CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...USHERING IN EVEN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK
TOWARD 80 THEN...BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON MONDAY
NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO RETURN...AIDED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE
LATEST RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WEST
OF OUR AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD ROLL INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE
UNSETTLED THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST IS NOW ADVERTISED TO BE MORE OPEN THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO RULE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO INITIATE RAIN CHANCES
FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GOING FORECAST
ALREADY HAD SMALL PRECIP CHANCES GOING...THUS WILL ONLY HAVE TO
TWEAK POPS UPWARD A TAD LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
658 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST RUC HAS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO MID STATE FROM ALABAMA THIS MORNING AND IT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
INITIAL RAIN BAND NOW WORKING NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION FIELD. HRRR WORKS THIS INITIAL BAND INTO
KENTUCKY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN BEHIND IT ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN NUMBER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BECOME MORE INTENSE. TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS
SCENARIO IN FORECAST FOR TERMINALS. ALSO LOOK FOR THE CEILINGS TO
LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES AS LOWER TROPOSPHERE APPROACHES
SATURATION. EXPECT THERE WILL SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS
DEVELOP STORMS AFTER 20Z.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE WEEK AT A GLANCE SUMMARY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN GENERALLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN ESTABLISHES A DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING PW/S HEADING TO NEAR
2 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LIGHT RETURNS WERE SEEN ON RADAR
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GENERAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE COMMON THAN THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY
MEAGER EXCEPT FOR SW PART OF MIDDLE TN. EXPECT RAINFALL TO AVERAGE
1/2 INCH OR LESS AREA WIDE TODAY/TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. IN FACT THERE MAY BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MONDAY AFTN/EVE BASED ON EXPECTED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...BUT CHANCES MAY LINGER ALL DAY ON
THE PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 36 HOUR
PERIOD COULD BE AROUND ANOTHER 1/2 INCH EXCEPT GREATER IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER
WEATHER AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE MS/OH/TN
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL APPROACH 90 AGAIN BUT MOST AREAS WILL
BE DRY. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM OR TWO ON THE
PLATEAU EACH DAY BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE/POPS SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
559 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
257 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH ANY SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGING...NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS AT MPX AND DVN NEAR 0.7 INCHES...HAS CONTINUED TO
KEEP SKIES CLEAR. A 30-40 KT SOUTHWEST WIND AT 850MB PER PROFILER
DATA STILL EXISTS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES AROUND 18C PER 00Z SOUNDINGS AND
RAP ANALYSIS. THE LOW LEVEL JET TOO IS ALSO HELPING TO BRING
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NOW ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN IOWA AS SEEN ON GOES SOUNDER
IMAGERY. HIGHER MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS IMPINGING ON
DPVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH...LEADING TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THERE NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION LIES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...STRETCHING FROM JUST WEST OF FARGO DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE A 987MB LOW IS PRESENT.
TODAY...THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST...INDUCED PARTLY BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST. BY 00Z MONDAY...THE CORE IS
FORECAST TO BE SITUATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THAT SAME POTENT SHORTWAVE IS GOING TO HELP PULL THE LOW IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UP INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...DRAGGING ITS COLD
FRONT TO AROUND I-35 IN MINNESOTA BY 00Z. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT IT APPEARS I-35 IS ABOUT THE
FARTHEST EASTWARD EXTENT NOW. A DRY...CAPPED AIRMASS PRESENT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST MANY DAYS...IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ON AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE GREATER DPVA CAN INTERACT
WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INCREASING LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. IN FACT...THE FRONTOGENESIS DOES LOOK QUITE STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT IN WESTERN MINNESOTA AT 00Z. GIVEN THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT AT 00Z...HAVE REMOVED THE 20 PERCENT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS PRETTY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY GIVEN 850MB TEMPS HOLDING STEADY AND THE DRY
AIRMASS. HIGHS COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORDS....95 AT LA CROSSE AND
96 AT ROCHESTER. DEFINITELY WINDY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA WHERE MAV/MET GUIDANCE HAVE WINDS AROUND 25 KT AT KRST
AND KTOB. HAVE DECLINED TO ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORY...SINCE IT
APPEARS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA. GUSTS
DEFINITELY LOOK TO BE BELOW ADVISORY...33-34 KT AT MOST.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET A STRONG PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO MANITOBA...NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND
MINNESOTA. GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. AGAIN...THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION STAYS
ON AND BEHIND THE FRONT...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GREATER HEIGHT
FALLS...LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER.
REGARDING THE MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO
CLIMB TO 1.5 TO EVEN AS MUCH AS 1.9 INCHES ON AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. NOTE THAT THE HIGHER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT IN A NARROW
RIBBON...SINCE THEY DROP TO 0.5 INCHES ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF THE
FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION ON AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE EVENING...SINCE MLCAPE VALUES OF 900-1200 J/KG AT 00Z WILL BE
FRONTOGENETICALLY LIFTED BACK TO THE WEST. NOTE THAT THIS
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EVENING WHERE
BOWING SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT ON THE FRONT DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY AND 0-3KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. NO HAIL
ANTICIPATED GIVEN DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR ON AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ONLY
25-30KT LIMITING STORM HEIGHT. SEVERE RISK...THEREFORE...IS REALLY
RESTRICTED WEST OF A LINE FROM WABASHA MN TO NEW HAMPTON IOWA. WITH
THE STRONG FORCING IN THE EVENING...PRECIPITATION LOOKS CERTAIN WEST
OF THAT LINE. AS THE NIGHT ROLLS ON...MODEL FORECASTS HAVE THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENING...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE
DYING INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AND BREAK
UP. BY 12Z MONDAY...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT JUST SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. AND BY 18Z...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE DRY SLOT OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN PLACE. TAILORED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO FOLLOW
THIS IDEA...WHICH IS ALSO VERY WELL AGREED UPON BY HIGHER RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS. OVERALL...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
850MB TEMPS DO COOL TO 12-16C BY 18Z MONDAY...THUS ANTICIPATED A
COOLER DAY...BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE. TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH IS SOME COOLER 850MB TEMPS...
TANKING TO 4-7C BY 18Z TUESDAY. SOME MODELS LIKE THE 10.00Z NAM EVEN
SUGGEST TAYLOR COUNTY SEEING THE 850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C AT 12Z.
ANY LOWER CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE THERMAL TROUGH LOOK TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH...SO PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD BE SEEN ON TUESDAY. STILL...MIXING
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB TEMPS ONLY RESULTS IN HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WINDS SHOULD START OFF BREEZY IN THE
MORNING...THEN DECREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA BUILDS IN. THAT BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 50S...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TAYLOR AND
CLARK COUNTY COULD SEE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. ONE ITEM OF NOTE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING. A BAND OF STRATUS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH IT. TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE MOST
PART LOOKS QUIET AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND ALLOWS THE DRY
SURFACE HIGH TO ONLY DRIFT TO THE EAST. ONE THING TO WATCH IS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW...REACHING THE SIOUX FALLS
AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE 10.00Z NAM/GFS. NOT
INTRODUCING ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT...SINCE THAT WILL
STAY OFF TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE NIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CHILLY
NIGHT LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER WISCONSIN WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS...WHICH RESULTS IN SOME LOWER 40S IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
257 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
10.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THEY ALL
INDICATE THAT THE ZONAL FLOW THAT DEVELOPED TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION
TO TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING BACK OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THIS...QUESTIONS EXIST ON HOW QUICK
THE WESTERN TROUGHING PROGRESSES EASTWARD...WITH THE 10.00Z GFS
SEEMING TO BE TOO FAST COMPARED TO ITS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF. THIS IS
A TYPICAL BIAS OF THE GFS TOO. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN THE LONG TERM
CLOSER TOWARDS THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE TROUGHING BOTTLED UP OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK PRETTY LOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. ONE FOCUS POINT
IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I-90 WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MAY BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIP. THEREFORE...CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT. NEXT FORECAST
MAY BE ABLE TO PULL THESE. REMOVED CHANCES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL. NEXT FOCUS
POINT FOR PRECIPITATION IS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UNDER THE
ASSUMPTION THAT SOME HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE OCCURRING WITH THE WESTERN
TROUGH MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST. KEPT FRIDAY NIGHT CHANCES AROUND 20 AND
IN SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THESE THEN SPREAD EAST ON SATURDAY. IT
IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD COULD BE DRY TOO...EITHER FROM THE
TROUGH BEING SLOWER OR THE AIRMASS NOT BEING AS MOIST AS MODELS
ADVERTISE. CERTAINLY THE MAINLY DRY DAYS EXPECTED THIS MONDAY
THROUGH BASICALLY FRIDAY WILL END UP EVAPOTRANSPORATING ANY RAIN
RECEIVED FROM TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN 10-12C. AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS...850MB TEMPS
CLIMB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT...THERE IS
A CHANCE READINGS COULD GET BACK UP TO NEAR 90 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
559 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD INCLUDE WINDS TODAY AND THEN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE HIGH MORE-
OPEN AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...INCLUDING THE KRST TAF
SITE. SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 35KT ARE
EXPECTED AT KRST BY 15Z...LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KLSE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20KT
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KT. NEXT ON THE DOCKET WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT KRST WILL SEE A PRETTY SOLID LINE OF
TS MOVE IN BY 03Z...LASTING TIL ABOUT 06Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SHRA WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. LOOK FOR THE SHRA TO LAST UNTIL
12Z...THEN SHIFT EAST. FOR KLSE...THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE A BIT
TRICKIER AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI LATER IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PLAN ON KEEPING VCTS IN FROM 06Z TO ABOUT
09Z...THEN DIMINISH TO SHRA AFTER 09Z. ALSO...LOOK FOR A WINDSHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST WITH COLD FROPA //AROUND 06Z FOR KRST
AND 09Z AT KLSE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FROPA...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS HINTING AT A BRIEF BOUT OF POST FRONTAL MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS AT KRST IN THE 06-10Z TIMEFRAME. KLSE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
257 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
THE COLD FRONT REACHED ASPEN AND MONTROSE AROUND 2 AM BASED ON A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND EXTENDED BACK ACROSS SE
UT TO ABOUT PAGE AZ. LATEST HI-RESOLUTION RAP AND HRRR MODELS SHOWED
THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS
SLOWING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SAN JUAN MTNS AND ITS UPPER SUPPORT
WANES...BUT STILL CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
THE PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. TRAILING
ENERGY WILL SWEEP ACROSS NE UT/NW CO THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE AIR WILL
BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION...OR EVEN MUCH CLOUDINESS.
TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
GUSTY CHARACTERISTIC BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS ON SATURDAY. LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST.
A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. PARTS OF
NORTHWEST CO AS WELL AS MANY HIGH MTN VALLEYS COULD SEE FREEZING
TEMPS. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWED LOWS DIPPING BELOW 32F AT CRAIG...
MEEKER...EAGLE AND GUNNISON WHERE FOLKS WITH COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS
SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CLOSELY.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER SUNSHINE MONDAY. A WEAK WAVE
CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS AND UP THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
BUT...BELIEVE THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE TOO DRY FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO
GENERATE ANY PRECIP...AND THE LOW-LEVEL E-SE UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
EASTERN SLOPE TOO WEAK TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
THUS...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
MODIFY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS AGAIN
HINT AT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...BUT WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP.
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BUCKLE THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND. MODELS KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK ALONG
THE USA/CANADA BORDER BUT DO SHOW...TO VARYING DEGREES...TROUGHING
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED...SO A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP ARE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT...THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS TONIGHT...GENERALLY STAYING EAST OF ILLINOIS. HIGH-RES
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR ARE KEEPING THE KILX CWA DRY...HOWEVER
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE COMING SO CLOSE TO THE E/SE...HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A SLIM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF I-57 TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-55
CORRIDOR BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE VALUES OF 1500
TO 2500J/KG. MITIGATING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LACK OF WIND SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK WIND PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND VERY WEAK 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 15 TO 25KT.
DESPITE LACK OF SHEAR...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND GOOD CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL RESULT IN A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE. PRIMARY TIME FRAME
WILL BE DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WEST OF I-55...AND
DURING THE EVENING FURTHER EAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY EXIT
INTO INDIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES NOTED FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD DAWN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
12 TO 14C RANGE...HIGHS WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEST. EXACT EVOLUTION AND
DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION STILL REMAIN IN QUESTION...WITH A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FEATURED ON EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A FRONT MAY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY. 12Z 10 JUN GFS IS MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE AND DEVELOPS A REX BLOCK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT...THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED PERHAPS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN WARM/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY...UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS ACHIEVED.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SE OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINAL AIRPORTS
THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE BEST TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURN IS OVER THE
MID MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AROUND KY INTO SE PARTS OF IL/IN.
994 MB LOW PRESSURE WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG HAS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SE SD...EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO CENTRAL KS. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER IL TO GIVE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-26 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO
7-10 KTS AT SUNSET AND TURN SW AROUND 10 KTS BY 15Z MON. COLD
FRONT TO MOVE SE TOWARD THE IA/IL BORDER BY 18Z/1 PM MON. BROKEN
CLOUDS 4-8K FT TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. HAVE VCTS AFTER 14Z AT PIA...15Z ALONG I-55
AT BMI AND SPI AND 16Z AT DEC FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KEPT CMI DRY THROUGH MON MORNING.
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN WESTERN IL AIRPORTS MON AFTERNOON AND
EAST CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS MON EVENING.
KH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
UPDATED THE ZONES FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
WIND ADVISORY WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. THE EASTERN PORTION
CONTINUES UNTIL 21Z. LATEST MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT
DECREASING TREND OF WIND OVER THE WEST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS/HOW COOL TO MAKE IT TODAY...AND
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND EVEN RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD SETTLED
INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA.
MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE JET SEGMENT BEHIND THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO LOW IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET LOOKED TO CAPTURE INCOMING UPPER LOW THE BEST
ALTHOUGH BY 06Z WERE NOT TOO FAR APART. LARGER SCALE MODELS HAVING
A HARD TIME WITH THE INCOMING FRONT. PARTICULARLY THEY WERE HAVING
TROUBLE WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE SMALLER MODELS...HRRR/RUC...WERE CATCHING THE
PRESSURE WIND FIELD THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS INITIALLY CATCHING THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THE BEST. ALSO THE HRRR/RUC WERE DOING FINE
WITH THIS AS WELL.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE HOW STRONG TO MAKE THE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE IT IS BARELY
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OR A SOLID ADVISORY. STILL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAST THE MODELS BRING IT IN AND HOW MUCH TO COOL THE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. NAM/RUC/HRRR WERE STILL BRINGING AN EXTREMELY
TIGHT GRADIENT AND VERY HIGH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF UP TO 10 MB.
THIS IS SHOWN BY THE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM WERE
GUSTING UP TO AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS. HRRR WAS BRINGING 40+ KNOT GUSTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES HAVING
THE LOWEST GUSTS.
AS A RESULT...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z FOR THE WEST AND
FROM 15Z TO 21Z FOR THE EAST. IF FRONT COMES IN FASTER MAY HAVE
READJUST THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS HAVE DONE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES AND WILL HAVE SOME THICK CLOUDS THIS MORNING. PROBLEM
IS THAT MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL RATHER MILD. PER THE RUC/HRRR
ADJUSTED MAXES DOWN EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND SOUTH.
JET COMING IN DURING THE NIGHT IS FURTHER NORTH THAN LAST NIGHT.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAINLY AFFECTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AFTER 06Z. MODELS DID CHANGE IN ANOTHER AWAY. THEY ARE MORE UNSTABLE
WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE INDICATED PLUS THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RESPONSE FROM THE RATHER STRONG MESOSCALE MID
LEVEL FORCING AND MODERATE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SO INSERTED SOME
THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WAS IS INTERESTING IS THAT GEFS AND
SREFS PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE HAVE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION. DOES MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING ABOVE DISCUSSION
BUT AM NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THAT YET. BUT DID RAISE POPS INTO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT. RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH MAY KEEP CLOUDS AROUND. NAM NWP/2 METER HAVE BEEN DOING
BEST BUT DO NOT WANT TO WARM IT UP TOO MUCH DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE
WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL START THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...THEN THE FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE REGIME AND POSSIBLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW
CANNOT DISCOUNT POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED STORM MOVING IN FROM
COLORADO. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS HAPPENING. THE PATTERN
REPEATS ON TUESDAY AND MODELS APPEAR TOO WET...WITH THE ECMWF
NOTABLY DRY. NONETHELESS...SINCE WE ARE OUTLOOKED BY SPC AND OTHER
MODELS ARE QUITE WET WILL BUMP UP POPS IN THE WEST TO LOW CHANCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WET THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. MY CONFIDENCE
BEYOND DAY 4 IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE UPPER PATTERN AND RECENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTH WIND WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL BROKEN CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT NO PRECIPITATION AT THE
SITES OTHER THAN A SPRINKLE DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER FROM THE
SURFACE TO 600MB.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1213 PM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
UPDATED THE ZONES FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
WIND ADVISORY WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. THE EASTERN PORTION
CONTINUES UNTIL 21Z. LATEST MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT
DECREASING TREND OF WIND OVER THE WEST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS/HOW COOL TO MAKE IT TODAY...AND
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND EVEN RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD SETTLED
INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA.
MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE JET SEGMENT BEHIND THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO LOW IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET LOOKED TO CAPTURE INCOMING UPPER LOW THE BEST
ALTHOUGH BY 06Z WERE NOT TOO FAR APART. LARGER SCALE MODELS HAVING
A HARD TIME WITH THE INCOMING FRONT. PARTICULARLY THEY WERE HAVING
TROUBLE WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE SMALLER MODELS...HRRR/RUC...WERE CATCHING THE
PRESSURE WIND FIELD THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS INITIALLY CATCHING THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THE BEST. ALSO THE HRRR/RUC WERE DOING FINE
WITH THIS AS WELL.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE HOW STRONG TO MAKE THE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE IT IS BARELY
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OR A SOLID ADVISORY. STILL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAST THE MODELS BRING IT IN AND HOW MUCH TO COOL THE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. NAM/RUC/HRRR WERE STILL BRINGING AN EXTREMELY
TIGHT GRADIENT AND VERY HIGH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF UP TO 10 MB.
THIS IS SHOWN BY THE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM WERE
GUSTING UP TO AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS. HRRR WAS BRINGING 40+ KNOT GUSTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES HAVING
THE LOWEST GUSTS.
AS A RESULT...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z FOR THE WEST AND
FROM 15Z TO 21Z FOR THE EAST. IF FRONT COMES IN FASTER MAY HAVE
READJUST THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS HAVE DONE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES AND WILL HAVE SOME THICK CLOUDS THIS MORNING. PROBLEM
IS THAT MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL RATHER MILD. PER THE RUC/HRRR
ADJUSTED MAXES DOWN EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND SOUTH.
JET COMING IN DURING THE NIGHT IS FURTHER NORTH THAN LAST NIGHT.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAINLY AFFECTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AFTER 06Z. MODELS DID CHANGE IN ANOTHER AWAY. THEY ARE MORE UNSTABLE
WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE INDICATED PLUS THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RESPONSE FROM THE RATHER STRONG MESOSCALE MID
LEVEL FORCING AND MODERATE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SO INSERTED SOME
THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WAS IS INTERESTING IS THAT GEFS AND
SREFS PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE HAVE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION. DOES MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING ABOVE DISCUSSION
BUT AM NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THAT YET. BUT DID RAISE POPS INTO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT. RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH MAY KEEP CLOUDS AROUND. NAM NWP/2 METER HAVE BEEN DOING
BEST BUT DO NOT WANT TO WARM IT UP TOO MUCH DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE
WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVES AWAY DURING THE
NIGHT. ALSO SOME WEAK LIFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WILL NOT BE
TERRIBLY UNSTABLE DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND FRONT.
HOWEVER...NEW GUIDANCE MATCHED CURRENT FORECAST WELL AND MADE NO
CHANGES.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE QPF.
THERE IS INSTABILITY AND SOME KIND OF LIFT MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER...
MODELS DO APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. DOES
APPEAR TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUT DUE TO MODEL
VARIABILITY LEFT THE FORECAST AS IS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE
HUDSON BAY REGION. SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS LEE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
ADVECT UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTH. THESE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS FORCING APPEARS TO BE QUITE WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND HOURS.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTH WIND WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL BROKEN CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT NO PRECIPITATION AT THE
SITES OTHER THAN A SPRINKLE DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER FROM THE
SURFACE TO 600MB.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER/PM
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
TODAY:
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. AT
08Z, THE FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, IT WAS WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S DEG F AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S DEG F. THE HRRR IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE POSITION
OF THE FRONT. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR IN THE VERY SHORT TERM AND
THEN THE NAM LATER TODAY WITH FRONTAL TIMING. I DID COOL MY NORTHWEST
COUNTIES DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES. THE BCCONSRAW OUTPUT WAS USED WITH A
FEW ALTERATIONS AS BOISE VERIFICATION SHOWS THIS MODEL IS OUTPERFORMING
OTHER GUIDANCE. THERE IS A LOW END CONCERN FOR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. WITH THE FROPA, THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT GIVEN THE QUICK WINDOW
OF THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS, THOUGHT
IT WAS BEST TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AROUND 80 DEG F TOWARDS SCOTT CITY TO AROUND 91 DEG F AT MEDICINE
LODGE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT
DUE TO THE VERY STOUT EML WITH 700 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST AROUND
15 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON "COOLING" OFF TO AROUND 12 DEG C BY TONIGHT.
TONIGHT:
I HAVE RAMPED UP POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE EML WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO COOLING OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE
WILL BE A WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TOWARDS MEDICINE LODGE. ML/MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH 45 KT OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. MARGINAL 700-500 HPA LAPSE RATES OF 7.0
C/KM AND 500-300 HPA LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.1 C/KM SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANVIL LEVEL SR WINDS ARE FAIRLY
DECENT AT 37 KT BUT THE FACT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE BASED WILL LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HAIL BIGGER THAN QUARTERS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS WITH
50S & 60S DEG F EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
BY EARLY MONDAY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT AT 12Z MONDAY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ALSO BE LOCATED NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVES ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATING SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING NEAR THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH AT 12Z MONDAY WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN THIS FORCING, MOISTURE, AND LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
STARTS TO DROP SOUTH.
ON MONDAY NIGHT 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND I310 ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEGINS TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 800MB LEVEL
WHICH WILL BE WHERE THIS LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SO HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY HAVE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHICH IS WHERE THIS LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SO THE INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 6 TO 10C RANGE BY 00Z TUESDAY. AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK AND WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
IMPROVES A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK AND THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL START TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. BASED ON THESE WARMING 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES THE HIGHS LATE WEEK AREA EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST AS
WARM AS THOSE CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO OVER 25 KNOTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE TO BELOW 12 KNOTS BY SUNSET. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AOA150 MOVING IN
THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 59 86 60 / 10 20 20 10
GCK 83 57 85 58 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 85 57 85 59 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 88 61 87 61 / 10 20 20 20
HYS 83 58 86 57 / 10 10 10 10
P28 91 65 88 63 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
142 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RATHER DEEP TROF FOR
EARLY JUNE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE TROF HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING ACTIVE CLUSTERS OF TSRA OVER NRN ONTARIO DURING THE
NIGHT. INCREASINGLY CAPPED AIRMASS TO THE S AS EVIDENT COMPARING 00Z
KINL SOUNDING TO KMPX SOUNDING WILL ENSURE THAT ANY PERSISTENT
CONVECTION REMAINS N OF THE AREA THRU THE MORNING. OF NOTE ON
UPSTREAM 00Z KMPX/KDVN SOUNDINGS IS NOT ONLY THE CAPPED AIR MASS BUT
THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. AS A RESULT...QUITE A LARGE
AREA ACROSS IA/SRN WI/NRN IL HAD SFC DWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE 40S
YESTERDAY AFTN. WITH THE DRY AIR ADVECTING TO UPPER MI TODAY...WILL
GO AT OR BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE FOR AFTN DWPTS (50 TO 55F) OVER
ROUGHLY THE W HALF WHICH WILL HAVE DEEPEST MIXING. E IS A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO MARINE LAYER OFF LAKE MI WORKING TO KEEP
MIXING DEPTHS LWR. WILL OPT TO HOLD DWPTS TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
NEAR LAKE MI LOWERING TO THE MID 50S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
THE DRY COLUMN...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL TO MIX ALL THE WAY
TO 750-700MB. KMPX/KDVN SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS AT AROUND
800MB YESTERDAY. UTILIZING THAT HEIGHT ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LWR 90S AWAY FROM LAKE MI INFLUENCE. IF
SOMEHOW MIXING DEPTH DID REACH 750-700MB...TEMPS WOULD TOP OUT IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS 25-30KT...THERE WILL BE
GUSTY S WINDS TODAY TO 25-30MPH...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
ONTONAGON AND BARAGA WILL LIKELY BE WARMEST. WILL GO WITH HIGHS UP
TO 94F IN THOSE AREAS. S WIND NOT AS FAVORABLE AS A SW WIND FOR PEAK
HEAT IN MARQUETTE...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO TOP 90F THERE.
DRY/CAPPED AIR MASS OBVIOUSLY ARGUES FOR DRY WEATHER TODAY...AND IN
FACT THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
TONIGHT...MID/UPPER TROF MOVES E WITH AXIS REACHING ERN DAKOTAS/WRN
MN BY MON MORNING. FOR SUMMER...IMPRESSIVE 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
UPWARDS OF AROUND 150M SHIFT NE INTO NRN ONTARIO BY MON MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ONE VORT MAX MOVING THRU THE TROF. WITH BEST HEIGHT
FALLS PASSING WELL TO THE NW OF HERE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING DURING DIURNAL MIN...CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE AS IT ARRIVES IN UPPER MI. AT THIS
POINT...CHC POPS WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF LIKELY POPS SPREADING INTO
THE W OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. NAM SHOWS MLCAPE ONLY UPWARDS
OF 400 J/KG SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH THE GFS JUST A
FEW HUNDRED HIGHER. ALTHOUGH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS
OF 30KT OVERSPREADS THE RIBBON OF INSTABILITY...THE INSTABILITY
PROBABLY WON`T BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SVR. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 60S/AROUND 70F GENERALLY THE RULE. SOME
COOLING WILL OCCUR LATE OVER THE W AS FRONT PASSES AND WINDS TAKE ON
A COMPONENT OFF THE LAKE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
THE PERIOD STARTS 12Z MON WITH A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM
MANITOBA TO ERN SD. THE CORRESPONDING 990MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO...WITH A TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER WCENTRAL UPPER MI. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK
BENEATH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SD/ND/MN BORDERS. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND OTHER FEATURES WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT MON MORNING...BUT CAPE
WILL BE SKINNY AND BELOW 500J/KG SO NO SEVERE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED...AND PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT IS WELL TO THE W AND THERE WILL BE A CAP IN
PLACE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES E...BUT THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP AND MERGE WITH THE FIRST OVER ERN
UPPER MI BY 00Z TUE. BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO WRN UPPER MI...SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP OVER THE W WITH THE SECOND FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.P. AS THE
TWO TROUGHS/FRONT MERGE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET MOVE OVER. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO SOME
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAPE VALUES STILL DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE...EVEN AS SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S...DUE TO CAPPING AND DRY AIR AND THE FACT THAT THE COLDER MID
LEVELS ARE STILL TO THE W. STILL COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS IN
THE EVENING OVER THE E...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND LOW CAPE.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES MON WILL NOT LAST INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL CWA BY 18Z
TUE...DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND 0-2C WITH NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
WINDS. THIS LEADS TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
IN THE 60S INLAND. DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
SW TUE...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD
TUE NIGHT AFTER A COOL DAY TUE...WENT WITH LOWER END OF GUIDANCE ON
TEMPS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FRONT INLAND TUE NIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA WED...AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
UP TO A CWA AVG OF 9C BY 00Z THU. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S. MOVES ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE IN FROM THE W LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT...GENERATING SOME
SMATTERS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION FOR THE PRECIP DURING THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS/QPF.
EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND THU THROUGH SAT AS SLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEPICTED BY MODELS. MODELS SHOW
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS
STATES...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z NEXT SUN.
THIS LEAVES THE CWA MOSTLY DRY UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN SOME PRECIP MAY
BE MOVING INTO THE W THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AT IWD...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONCE DECOUPLING
OCCURS TONIGHT...LLWS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES. EXPECT UPWARDS OF
40KTS OF SHEAR OVER THE LOWEST 1 TO 1.5KFT...EVEN THROUGH WINDS STAY
UP AT THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AT IWD. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
THROUGH CMX MONDAY MORNING...AND SAW LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AT IWD
AND SAW...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN THE TAF. BEST CHANCE OF
HIGHER TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE AT SAW. WITH THE FRONT AND
PRECIP...MVFR CIGS AND VIS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT ONLY
TEMPORARILY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR
MOVES IN. WINDS COULD BECOMING GUSTY AND PICK UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012
ALTHOUGH NOT ALWAYS EASY TO SEE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT NIGHT...IT
APPEARS THAT FOG OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
IS DIMINISHING AND IS NOW CONFINED CLOSE TO THE MN SHORE AND AROUND
ISLE ROYALE. WITH WINDS OVER THE LAKE BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHERLY AND
SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING NORTHWARD...FOG MAY BE GONE BY MID AFTN.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THIS EVENING THRU MON AFTN. IT`S POSSIBLE FOG MAY REDEVELOP FOR
A TIME IF RAINFALL DOES OCCUR OVER THE LAKE.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF/COLD FRONT...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE S BY LATE
AFTN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY
INCREASE TO 15-25KT TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE HIGHEST OBSERVING PLATFORMS MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND
30KT THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROF WHICH PASSES MON NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR
WILL BOOST W/NW WINDS TO 15-25KT MON NIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15KT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES. WINDS
WILL THEN LIKELY STAY MOSTLY UNDER 15KT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
REMAINS IN THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
142 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...
AVIATION... 18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE AVIATION FORECAST IS TIMING THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS THE
WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FRONT IS ALREADY PAST
KOFK SO THE STORM CHANCES THERE ARE MINIMAL. HOWEVER THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH KLNK AND KOMA IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME
MAKING THESE TWO TAF SITES VULNERABLE FOR SCATTERED STRONG STORMS.
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE SUNSETS... CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS
DIMINISHES GREATLY AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY MID MORNING MONDAY BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THEN.
NIETFELD
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY...THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED FROM MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN
SIDE AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS. 110KT JET SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM
WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA WAS AIDING COMPLEX OF STORMS NOW
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES EXTENDED FROM SOUTH DAKOTA CONVECTION INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CAPPING
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS WILL BUILD/DEVELOP SOUTH BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. AND IR SATELLITE PICTURES WERE SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE PANHANDLE...LENDING CREDENCE TO HRRR
PRECIP FORECAST FARTHER SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE STEADILY SOUTHEAST...ENTERING OUR FAR NORTHWEST
CWA AROUND 15Z BASED ON GFS/HRRR FORECASTS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS CAPPING PROHIBITS WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH OMAHA TO LINCOLN LINE
AROUND 21Z WHEN RIBBON OF MID 60S DEW POINTS WILL LIE JUST AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MODELS OVER-FORECASTING DEW
POINTS...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE-BASED CAPES SHOULD BE NEAR 2000 J/KG
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH CAP ERODING AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE
85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY MODEST IN OUR AREA
WHERE MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK. BUT INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR-SEVERE DOWNBURSTS.
FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN SWEEPING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SEEING RAIN CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...USHERING IN EVEN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK
TOWARD 80 THEN...BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON MONDAY
NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO RETURN...AIDED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE
LATEST RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WEST
OF OUR AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD ROLL INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE
UNSETTLED THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST IS NOW ADVERTISED TO BE MORE OPEN THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO RULE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO INITIATE RAIN CHANCES
FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GOING FORECAST
ALREADY HAD SMALL PRECIP CHANCES GOING...THUS WILL ONLY HAVE TO
TWEAK POPS UPWARD A TAD LATE IN THE WEEK.
DERGAN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1109 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT/
VERY COMPLEX SHORT TERM TODAY. FRONTAL ZONE IS NOW STARTING TO
ACCELERATE A BIT...ROUGHLY ALONG A DE SMET TO WAGNER LINE AROUND
1530Z...BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. READINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
HAVE JUMPED NICELY ON THE STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS...REACHING
LOWER 80S BY MID MORNING. DID END UP RAISING HIGHS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EASTERN AREAS
WHERE SUNSHINE WILL LAST THE LONGEST. ALSO RAISED DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT
FOR THE TYPICAL MORNING PRE MIXING RISE...BUT RATHER THAN CRASH WITH
MIXING...CAP SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A LEVELING OUT UNTIL FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS TIME AROUND. IN FACT...CAP THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD PRECLUDE THREAT FOR CONVECTION AT OR AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH ANYTHING MORE LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED
ELEVATED WELL POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS...AND THIS HAS BEEN FEATURE OF
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS THROUGH THE MORNING...IF NOT A BIT OVERDONE EVEN
ON THIS.
ACTUAL PRE FRONTAL CONDITIONS MAY BE A BIT WARMER...BUT BIT LESS
MOIST...THAN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH IN THE END LOOKS TO BE A
PUSH AS FAR AS CAP STRENGTH. AS MID LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES IN FROM THE
WEST AND TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS START TO SLIP...AND THIS SHOULD
OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME CONVECTIVE UPTAKE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL LIKELY
WILL END UP WITH A FAIRLY NARROW ZONE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BEHIND FRONT
WHERE THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE LOCATED...BETWEEN THE CAP HOLDING
EAST OF THE FRONT...AND THE AREA TOO POSTFRONTAL TO THE WEST.
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WINDS WILL LENGTHEN OUT THE HODOGRAPHS...WITH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. LOOKS MAINLY TO BE A
HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH STORMS...WHICH SHOULD BE CLEAR OF CWA AROUND
02Z.
FAIRLY NON-DIURNAL TRACES AS WELL WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL FALL...
BUT INDICATIONS NOW WITH CLEARING LINE LIKELY TO PRESS TO THE JAMES
VALLEY BY 22Z THAT FAR WEST WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER QUITE A BIT
MORE...AND MIXING VALUES ON NAM/RAP SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 70S. SHADED
A BIT LOWER THAN THAT...BUT DID RESULT IN A 4-6F BUMP IN THE FAR
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS SKEWED THERE TOWARD 00Z. /CHAPMAN
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A COMPLEX AVIATION
FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TURN WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST AGAIN AROUND 25 KTS. TIMING OF
THE FRONT PUTS IT THROUGH KHON AROUND 12Z...KFSD AND KSUX IN THE
17-19Z TIME FRAME...AND EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 22Z. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND TURN BACK TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL JET IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING...SO REMOVED LLWS FROM THE TAFS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK LOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A STRONG CAP
IN PLACE. HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THIS PUTS KFSD AND KSUX ON THE BOUNDARY OF
WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM. KSUX MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE SO INCLUDED A TEMPO TSRA THERE...WITH ONLY SHRA MENTIONED IN
THE KFSD TAF. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY ENOUGH THAT COULD SEE THUNDER AT KFSD IF CAP
BREAKS IN TIME.
OTHER ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS POSSIBLE STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT. RATHER
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS LIKE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MVFR CIGS
BEHIND THE FRONT. SO COULD SEE A REDUCTION FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHON
THIS MORNING AND KFSD THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT THESE WILL
ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUSHING IN RAISING
CIGS BACK INTO THE VFR CATEGORY. /CHENARD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT/
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN CWA AS OF 08Z AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TODAY...REACHING I29 BY 17Z AND EXIT FAR
EASTERN CWA BY 00Z. FIRST WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING OFF TO
NORTHEAST JUST WEST OF CWA AS WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ND. SO MAY
NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY MOST OF MORNING ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING JUST BEHIND FRONT. WILL LIKELY SEE
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF I29 THIS AFTERNOON AS
SECOND WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST BEHIND FRONT AS CAP WILL EXIST TO
THE EAST. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF I29 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z. WILL ALSO SEE PLENTY
OF STRATUS SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY BEHIND FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF I29 LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN THE MORNING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OF FALL A BIT. ALSO EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT REPLACED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND AGAIN BREEZY ON
MONDAY BEHIND SECOND SHORT WAVE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT WITH CHANCE LESS
THAN 20%...WILL LEAVE DRY.
THE COOL WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE LIFTING WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
PROBABLY SEE A LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE OF STORMS IN FORECAST LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL BE WARMER ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT EXTENT OF WARMING ACROSS EAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT MOVE OUT OF CWA.
WILL GENERALLY KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DRY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOOKS UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE AND BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN VFR TO MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR
CEILINGS/ONSET OF MAIN SWATH OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW/
TROUGH PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS...BUT
TEMP FLUCTUATIONS TO VFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAIN SWATH
OF SHWRS...WITH SCT TSTMS...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVEMENT NEWD OUT OF WRN GULF BETWEEN 11/03Z-11/15Z...
ESPECIALLY CSV. CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY IFR BETWEEN
11/09Z-11/14Z ALSO. SOME DRIER AIR MIGHT TRY TO WORK ACROSS WRN TAF
SITES AFTER 11/14Z...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH DIURNAL
INFLUENCES KICKING IN SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR TAF
SITES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/
UPDATE...
LEAD WAVE THAT BROUGHT LIGHT MORNING RAINFALL WAS WEAKENING IN
DRIER AIR NORTH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LIMITED AFTN HEATING. MARGINAL INSTAB EXPECTED TO
DRIVE SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 658 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
LATEST RUC HAS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO MID STATE FROM ALABAMA THIS MORNING AND IT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
INITIAL RAIN BAND NOW WORKING NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION FIELD. HRRR WORKS THIS INITIAL BAND INTO
KENTUCKY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN BEHIND IT ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN NUMBER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BECOME MORE INTENSE. TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS
SCENARIO IN FORECAST FOR TERMINALS. ALSO LOOK FOR THE CEILINGS TO
LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES AS LOWER TROPOSPHERE APPROACHES
SATURATION. EXPECT THERE WILL SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS
DEVELOP STORMS AFTER 20Z.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE WEEK AT A GLANCE SUMMARY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN GENERALLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN ESTABLISHES A DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING PW/S HEADING TO NEAR
2 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LIGHT RETURNS WERE SEEN ON RADAR
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GENERAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE COMMON THAN THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY
MEAGER EXCEPT FOR SW PART OF MIDDLE TN. EXPECT RAINFALL TO AVERAGE
1/2 INCH OR LESS AREA WIDE TODAY/TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. IN FACT THERE MAY BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MONDAY AFTN/EVE BASED ON EXPECTED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...BUT CHANCES MAY LINGER ALL DAY ON
THE PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 36 HOUR
PERIOD COULD BE AROUND ANOTHER 1/2 INCH EXCEPT GREATER IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER
WEATHER AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE MS/OH/TN
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL APPROACH 90 AGAIN BUT MOST AREAS WILL
BE DRY. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM OR TWO ON THE
PLATEAU EACH DAY BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE/POPS SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1113 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.UPDATE...
LEAD WAVE THAT BROUGHT LIGHT MORNING RAINFALL WAS WEAKENING IN
DRIER AIR NORTH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LIMITED AFTN HEATING. MARGINAL INSTAB EXPECTED TO
DRIVE SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
LATEST RUC HAS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO MID STATE FROM ALABAMA THIS MORNING AND IT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
INITIAL RAIN BAND NOW WORKING NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION FIELD. HRRR WORKS THIS INITIAL BAND INTO
KENTUCKY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN BEHIND IT ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN NUMBER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BECOME MORE INTENSE. TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS
SCENARIO IN FORECAST FOR TERMINALS. ALSO LOOK FOR THE CEILINGS TO
LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES AS LOWER TROPOSPHERE APPROACHES
SATURATION. EXPECT THERE WILL SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS
DEVELOP STORMS AFTER 20Z.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE WEEK AT A GLANCE SUMMARY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN GENERALLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN ESTABLISHES A DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING PW/S HEADING TO NEAR
2 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LIGHT RETURNS WERE SEEN ON RADAR
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GENERAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE COMMON THAN THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY
MEAGER EXCEPT FOR SW PART OF MIDDLE TN. EXPECT RAINFALL TO AVERAGE
1/2 INCH OR LESS AREA WIDE TODAY/TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. IN FACT THERE MAY BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MONDAY AFTN/EVE BASED ON EXPECTED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...BUT CHANCES MAY LINGER ALL DAY ON
THE PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 36 HOUR
PERIOD COULD BE AROUND ANOTHER 1/2 INCH EXCEPT GREATER IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER
WEATHER AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE MS/OH/TN
VALLEYS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL APPROACH 90 AGAIN BUT MOST AREAS WILL
BE DRY. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM OR TWO ON THE
PLATEAU EACH DAY BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE/POPS SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
257 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH ANY SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGING...NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS AT MPX AND DVN NEAR 0.7 INCHES...HAS CONTINUED TO
KEEP SKIES CLEAR. A 30-40 KT SOUTHWEST WIND AT 850MB PER PROFILER
DATA STILL EXISTS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES AROUND 18C PER 00Z SOUNDINGS AND
RAP ANALYSIS. THE LOW LEVEL JET TOO IS ALSO HELPING TO BRING
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NOW ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN IOWA AS SEEN ON GOES SOUNDER
IMAGERY. HIGHER MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS IMPINGING ON
DPVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH...LEADING TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THERE NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION LIES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...STRETCHING FROM JUST WEST OF FARGO DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE A 987MB LOW IS PRESENT.
TODAY...THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST...INDUCED PARTLY BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST. BY 00Z MONDAY...THE CORE IS
FORECAST TO BE SITUATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THAT SAME POTENT SHORTWAVE IS GOING TO HELP PULL THE LOW IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UP INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...DRAGGING ITS COLD
FRONT TO AROUND I-35 IN MINNESOTA BY 00Z. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT IT APPEARS I-35 IS ABOUT THE
FARTHEST EASTWARD EXTENT NOW. A DRY...CAPPED AIRMASS PRESENT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST MANY DAYS...IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ON AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE GREATER DPVA CAN INTERACT
WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INCREASING LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. IN FACT...THE FRONTOGENESIS DOES LOOK QUITE STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT IN WESTERN MINNESOTA AT 00Z. GIVEN THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT AT 00Z...HAVE REMOVED THE 20 PERCENT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS PRETTY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY GIVEN 850MB TEMPS HOLDING STEADY AND THE DRY
AIRMASS. HIGHS COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORDS....95 AT LA CROSSE AND
96 AT ROCHESTER. DEFINITELY WINDY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA WHERE MAV/MET GUIDANCE HAVE WINDS AROUND 25 KT AT KRST
AND KTOB. HAVE DECLINED TO ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORY...SINCE IT
APPEARS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA. GUSTS
DEFINITELY LOOK TO BE BELOW ADVISORY...33-34 KT AT MOST.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET A STRONG PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO MANITOBA...NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND
MINNESOTA. GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. AGAIN...THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION STAYS
ON AND BEHIND THE FRONT...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GREATER HEIGHT
FALLS...LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER.
REGARDING THE MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO
CLIMB TO 1.5 TO EVEN AS MUCH AS 1.9 INCHES ON AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. NOTE THAT THE HIGHER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT IN A NARROW
RIBBON...SINCE THEY DROP TO 0.5 INCHES ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF THE
FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION ON AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE EVENING...SINCE MLCAPE VALUES OF 900-1200 J/KG AT 00Z WILL BE
FRONTOGENETICALLY LIFTED BACK TO THE WEST. NOTE THAT THIS
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EVENING WHERE
BOWING SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT ON THE FRONT DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY AND 0-3KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. NO HAIL
ANTICIPATED GIVEN DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR ON AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ONLY
25-30KT LIMITING STORM HEIGHT. SEVERE RISK...THEREFORE...IS REALLY
RESTRICTED WEST OF A LINE FROM WABASHA MN TO NEW HAMPTON IOWA. WITH
THE STRONG FORCING IN THE EVENING...PRECIPITATION LOOKS CERTAIN WEST
OF THAT LINE. AS THE NIGHT ROLLS ON...MODEL FORECASTS HAVE THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENING...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE
DYING INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AND BREAK
UP. BY 12Z MONDAY...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT JUST SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. AND BY 18Z...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE DRY SLOT OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN PLACE. TAILORED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO FOLLOW
THIS IDEA...WHICH IS ALSO VERY WELL AGREED UPON BY HIGHER RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS. OVERALL...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
850MB TEMPS DO COOL TO 12-16C BY 18Z MONDAY...THUS ANTICIPATED A
COOLER DAY...BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE. TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH IS SOME COOLER 850MB TEMPS...
TANKING TO 4-7C BY 18Z TUESDAY. SOME MODELS LIKE THE 10.00Z NAM EVEN
SUGGEST TAYLOR COUNTY SEEING THE 850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C AT 12Z.
ANY LOWER CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE THERMAL TROUGH LOOK TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH...SO PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD BE SEEN ON TUESDAY. STILL...MIXING
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB TEMPS ONLY RESULTS IN HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WINDS SHOULD START OFF BREEZY IN THE
MORNING...THEN DECREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA BUILDS IN. THAT BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 50S...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TAYLOR AND
CLARK COUNTY COULD SEE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. ONE ITEM OF NOTE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING. A BAND OF STRATUS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH IT. TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE MOST
PART LOOKS QUIET AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND ALLOWS THE DRY
SURFACE HIGH TO ONLY DRIFT TO THE EAST. ONE THING TO WATCH IS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW...REACHING THE SIOUX FALLS
AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE 10.00Z NAM/GFS. NOT
INTRODUCING ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT...SINCE THAT WILL
STAY OFF TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE NIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CHILLY
NIGHT LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER WISCONSIN WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS...WHICH RESULTS IN SOME LOWER 40S IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
257 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
10.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THEY ALL
INDICATE THAT THE ZONAL FLOW THAT DEVELOPED TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION
TO TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING BACK OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THIS...QUESTIONS EXIST ON HOW QUICK
THE WESTERN TROUGHING PROGRESSES EASTWARD...WITH THE 10.00Z GFS
SEEMING TO BE TOO FAST COMPARED TO ITS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF. THIS IS
A TYPICAL BIAS OF THE GFS TOO. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN THE LONG TERM
CLOSER TOWARDS THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE TROUGHING BOTTLED UP OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK PRETTY LOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. ONE FOCUS POINT
IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I-90 WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MAY BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIP. THEREFORE...CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT. NEXT FORECAST
MAY BE ABLE TO PULL THESE. REMOVED CHANCES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL. NEXT FOCUS
POINT FOR PRECIPITATION IS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UNDER THE
ASSUMPTION THAT SOME HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE OCCURRING WITH THE WESTERN
TROUGH MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST. KEPT FRIDAY NIGHT CHANCES AROUND 20 AND
IN SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THESE THEN SPREAD EAST ON SATURDAY. IT
IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD COULD BE DRY TOO...EITHER FROM THE
TROUGH BEING SLOWER OR THE AIRMASS NOT BEING AS MOIST AS MODELS
ADVERTISE. CERTAINLY THE MAINLY DRY DAYS EXPECTED THIS MONDAY
THROUGH BASICALLY FRIDAY WILL END UP EVAPOTRANSPIRATING ANY RAIN
RECEIVED FROM TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN 10-12C. AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS...850MB TEMPS
CLIMB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT...THERE IS
A CHANCE READINGS COULD GET BACK UP TO NEAR 90 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUED TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
HEADED EAST FROM NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. BRISK SOUTH WINDS
15-25KT G30-35KTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/RIDGE TOP AREAS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL COOLING
BEGINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO ERUPT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
MN TO WESTERN IA AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT. FAIRLY
SOLID LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLATED TO PUSH INTO AREAS WEST OF THE MS
RIVER DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONG/GUSTY WEST
WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF SHRA/TSRA AS IT MOVES IN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS...AND ADDED THIS TO BOTH KRST/KLSE AS THE MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION PASSES. TIMING LOOKS TO BE 04-06Z AT KRST AND 06-08Z AT
KLSE. LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WEAKENING AS APPROACHES/CROSSES THE
MS RIVER INTO WI...DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND DECREASE OF INSTABILITY.
CIGS/VSBYS LOOKING TO DROP INTO MVFR AS THE LINE PASSES...QUICKLY
IMPROVING LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER/COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
LINE/FRONT. IF A STRONGER TSRA CORE GOES OVER ONE OF THE TAF
SITES...CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS IT
PASSES. GIVEN POTENTIAL TIMING PROBLEMS...LEFT ANY IFR MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR MON AS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND DRIER/COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO MN/WI BEHIND IT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
257 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS