Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/09/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1020 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FROM EASTERN CANADA WITH
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL ANCHOR
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY LATE WEEK WITH MILD BUT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE A LITTLE STEEPER THAN MOIST
ADIABATIC AT -6.5 C/KM AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WERE 500+ J/KG WERE
THE EXISTING CONVECTION WAS LOCATED.
DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE ANY SINGLE MODEL WAS HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION PARTICULARLY WELL. THE 08/21Z SREF HAD THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE LOCATION AN TIMING OF THE BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. MEANWHILE THE 08/22Z HRRR WAS THE
ONLY GUIDANCE SOURCE THAT SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WELL. THINKING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS THE AVAILABLE ENERGY GETS USED
UP. ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING INCORPORATING
IDEAS FROM BOTH THE 08/21Z SREF AND 08/22Z HRRR.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AS
WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
SUNSET WILL MEAN THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE UPPER JET AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF US AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING 00Z-06Z. SO EXPECTING A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
COLD FRONT LINGERS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. CONCERN IS FOR
CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT AND CROSS PART OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOCUS MORE ON THE
CORRIDOR ACROSS NEW YORK CITY AND NEW JERSEY...POSSIBLY CLIPPING
SOUTHWEST CT. MODEL QPF IS FARTHER NORTH...REACHING TO RI AND
CENTRAL MASS. WE WENT WITH LOW-END CHANCE POPS THROUGH WESTERN
MASS/CT/RI...BUT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY.
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL START OF NEXT WEEK.
* COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS LATER NEXT WEEK.
MODEL DISCUSSION AND PREFERENCES...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SHOW WIDE TRACK AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. APPEARS
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND ITS INTERACTION WITH CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLC. AT THIS POINT...LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...THEN BLENDING THESE MODELS WITH THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TO WORK OUT TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES. THIS CAME IN RATHER CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE.
SUNDAY...
MODELS ARE TENDING TO DRY OUT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS SW MA/N CENTRAL CT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS WEAKNESS/LEFTOVER ENERGY FROM STALLED FRONT MAY
ALLOW JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CAUSE THESE TO FORM.
HOWEVER...QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. IN ANY EVENT...MAY NOT LAST TOO LONG AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AS THE
HIGH MOVES S...WITH SEA BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST TO AROUND 80 INLAND.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING MONDAY...THEN SLIP
DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A LOT OF SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. A CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A
BIT COOLER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT TO S ON
TUESDAY FOR MODERATING TEMPS. CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
MAY START TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT WELL
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
APPROACHING FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN WITH CUTOFF BLOCKING LOW OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...
THOUGH DOES APPEAR THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FROM W-E
DURING WEDNESDAY AND WILL LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLD TSTMS LATE
WED/WED NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ON THURSDAY. ALSO NOTING ONE OR
TWO WEAK LOW PRES WAVES MOVING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT...THOUGH
MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE TRACK. COULD SEE SOME ENHANCED
PRECIP WITH THIS WAVES ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT INTO THU.
FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE WITH WIDE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME SO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FOR NOW...HAVE TRENDED
FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR IN GENERAL...BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND AREAS OF IFR AROUND THE ISLANDS AND SE MA AND
POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE CT VALLEY. BRIEF LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH 03Z-04Z.
SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN SRN NH AND EASTERN MASS.
VFR WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN MASS AND CT-RI.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. MAIN AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION HAVE PASSED THE AIRPORT AS OF
10 PM THIS EVENING. STILL MONITORING CONVECTION ACROSS NH...BUT
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOG POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SOME FOG AROUND THE
REGION BUT HARD TO PINPOINT IT AT THE TERMINAL. ANY THAT DOES
OCCUR COULD BRING IFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT...DISSIPATING BY 8 AM.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
AT TIMES IN WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS SW MA/N CENTRAL CT
FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
START...THEN MAY LOWER TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS FROM W-E LATE WED MORNING-WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WED
NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THE WATERS SOUTH OF RI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THAT ACTION WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT VSBYS AND
CAUSE GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY-TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BECOME S-SW BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE BRIEF INCREASE IN SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. EXPECT LOWER VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
AREA. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING OFF
THE ADIRONDACKS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER VERY DIFFUSE
SHORT WAVE WORKING THE TERRAIN...THE COLD ATMOSPHERE AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. THE -20C IS DOWN BELOW
20,000 FEET AND WETBULB IS WELL BELOW 10,000 FEET SO THE THREAT OF
HAIL CONTINUES.
FOR THE UPDATE...MAINLY RETOOLED POPS (BASED ON RADAR COVERAGE). DID
BACK OFF NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED BASED ON THE WEAKNESS OF FORCING AND
THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT INDICATES NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED.
STILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THE SMALL HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE AND SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH
THEM. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 70S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. MANY AREAS WILL NOT RECEIVE
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WHERE SHOWERS TAKE PLACE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF DOWNPOUR...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND POSSIBLY EVEN SMALL HAIL.
AFTER SUNSET ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AND
HAVE THUNDER ONLY MENTIONED UNTIL 02Z. ONCE AGAIN WITH PARTLY
SKIES TONIGHT...FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED AS THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OR WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. WHILE FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY START OUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. MUCAPES ARE ONCE
AGAIN CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND ZERO AND WBZ HEIGHTS 6-8 KFT...SO SMALL HAIL IS STILL
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FA WILL HAVE THE NOSE OF A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED 120+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET POINTED DIRECTLY AT US LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH H8 WINDS UP TO 35 KTS...THUS SOME STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF FA
WHICH IS THE AREA SPC HAS IN A SLIGHT RISK. WILL INCLUDE THIS IN
THE HWO WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH STILL SOME UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE PCPN AND AREAS IMPACTED. PREFER THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS TO THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST AND TOO AMPLIFIED WHICH DRIVES THE
PCPN WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF MUCH OF FA.
NAM/ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THEIR TIMING OF THE PCPN ON
SATURDAY AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING AS WELL AS THE ORIENTATION OF
THE PCPN SHIELD COVERING MOST OF FA. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT HAVE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS INSTABILITY LACKING WITH MUCAPES AT
MOST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND SHOWALTER INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE.
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO GENERALLY
TOTAL BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE COOLER IF
RAINFALL ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT WITH 50/50 BLEND OF 18Z/06 HPC GUIDANCE...AND 00Z/07
GMOS FOR MOST GRIDDED FIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTIONS
MENTIONED BELOW.
SUNDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE SHOULD PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...THEN DRY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND
70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SUN NT-TUE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS TO CREST OVER OR NEAR
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE
MORNING...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MAXES REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND AROUND 80 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE
TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE 50/50 BLEND DESCRIBED ABOVE...GIVEN
850 TEMPS APPROACHING +13 TO +15 C. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 55-60 RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
SUN NT/MON AM...THEN RISE TO 60-65 IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 50S
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS MON NT/TUE AM. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND
WELL AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TUE NT-WED...MOST 00Z/07 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE CLOUDS...HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED CHC POPS. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE
CLOUDS...MAX TEMPS WED SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER...GENERALLY MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADKS...AND ARE CURRENTLY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS TSRA ACTIVITY WILL COME CLOSE TO KGFL EARLY THIS AFTN...AND
MAY IMPACT KALB BY THE MID AFTN HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT KPSF/KPOU FOR THE LATE AFTN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED...AND JUST A BRIEF BURST
OF MODERATE RAIN AND SOME OCSL LTG IS EXPECTED WITHIN ANY OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY. WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR TSRA...FLYING CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR...OTHERWISE...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH 00 UTC...WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.
WITH LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SOME BR/FG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KGFL.
THIS MAY BE AIDED BY ANY PLACES THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTN.
SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...WHICH MAY BE
SIMILAR IN NATURE TO THIS MORNING/S FOG AND STRATUS. ANY
FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE MID MORNING FRIDAY WITH JUST
SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.
SUN-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
AREA. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST. AVERAGE BASIN RIVER FORECASTS WILL BE UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TODAY AND FRIDAY AND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1250 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
AREA. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING OFF
THE ADIRONDACKS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER VERY DIFFUSE
SHORT WAVE WORKING THE TERRAIN...THE COLD ATMOSPHERE AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. THE -20C IS DOWN BELOW
20,000 FEET AND WETBULB IS WELL BELOW 10,000 FEET SO THE THREAT OF
HAIL CONTINUES.
FOR THE UPDATE...MAINLY RETOOLED POPS (BASED ON RADAR COVERAGE). DID
BACK OFF NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED BASED ON THE WEAKNESS OF FORCING AND
THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT INDICATES NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED.
STILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THE SMALL HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE AND SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH
THEM. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 70S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. MANY AREAS WILL NOT RECEIVE
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WHERE SHOWERS TAKE PLACE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF DOWNPOUR...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND POSSIBLY EVEN SMALL HAIL.
AFTER SUNSET ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AND
HAVE THUNDER ONLY MENTIONED UNTIL 02Z. ONCE AGAIN WITH PARTLY
SKIES TONIGHT...FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED AS THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OR WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. WHILE FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY START OUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. MUCAPES ARE ONCE
AGAIN CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND ZERO AND WBZ HEIGHTS 6-8 KFT...SO SMALL HAIL IS STILL
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FA WILL HAVE THE NOSE OF A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED 120+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET POINTED DIRECTLY AT US LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH H8 WINDS UP TO 35 KTS...THUS SOME STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF FA
WHICH IS THE AREA SPC HAS IN A SLIGHT RISK. WILL INCLUDE THIS IN
THE HWO WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH STILL SOME UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE PCPN AND AREAS IMPACTED. PREFER THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS TO THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST AND TOO AMPLIFIED WHICH DRIVES THE
PCPN WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF MUCH OF FA.
NAM/ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THEIR TIMING OF THE PCPN ON
SATURDAY AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING AS WELL AS THE ORIENTATION OF
THE PCPN SHIELD COVERING MOST OF FA. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT HAVE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS INSTABILITY LACKING WITH MUCAPES AT
MOST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND SHOWALTER INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE.
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO GENERALLY
TOTAL BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE COOLER IF
RAINFALL ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT WITH 50/50 BLEND OF 18Z/06 HPC GUIDANCE...AND 00Z/07
GMOS FOR MOST GRIDDED FIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTIONS
MENTIONED BELOW.
SUNDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE SHOULD PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...THEN DRY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND
70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SUN NT-TUE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS TO CREST OVER OR NEAR
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE
MORNING...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MAXES REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND AROUND 80 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE
TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE 50/50 BLEND DESCRIBED ABOVE...GIVEN
850 TEMPS APPROACHING +13 TO +15 C. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 55-60 RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
SUN NT/MON AM...THEN RISE TO 60-65 IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 50S
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS MON NT/TUE AM. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND
WELL AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TUE NT-WED...MOST 00Z/07 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE CLOUDS...HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED CHC POPS. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE
CLOUDS...MAX TEMPS WED SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER...GENERALLY MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A
MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF BETWEEN
12Z-13Z...GIVING WAY TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 01Z/FRI...WITH CLEARING
SKIES INITIALLY. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS...LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TOWARD...AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z/FRI...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...AND ALSO ANY OTHER
TAF SITES WHICH RECEIVE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
SUN-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
AREA. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST. AVERAGE BASIN RIVER FORECASTS WILL BE UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TODAY AND FRIDAY AND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
930 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT)...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
COAST/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WV IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND FL PENINSULA. THE STORY CONTINUES TO REPEAT ITSELF...BUT
WITH THE ALL THE COLUMN MOISTURE...A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT
EJECTING OVERHEAD...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...THE
STAGE REMAINS SET FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWING PW VALUES UP OVER 2"
REGION-WIDE THIS EVENING AND THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING CONFIRMED THIS
WITH A MEASURED VALUE OF 2.12".
AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...THE MOST ORGANIZED RAINFALL
AND BEST THUNDER CHANCES WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST ALONG THE COAST SOUTH
OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. FURTHER NORTH...THE FORECAST IS CERTAINLY NOT
DRY...HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY AND FORCING HAVE DECREASED AND SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LOOKING AT LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE
CONVECTION OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND HEADING TOWARD SHORE
APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL (925-850MB)
THETAE RIDGE...WHICH HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GFS KEEPS THIS IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST THUNDER CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT...THIS
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBOUND BACK TO THE NORTH SOMEWHAT. FOR THIS
REASON WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN THE GRIDS FURTHER UP THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PINELLAS/HILLSBOROUGH
NORTHWARD THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC SETUP WITH AN EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER THE WATCH
AREA. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (SATURDAY - SUNDAY)...
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS SHOW DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE (PW`S 2+ INCHES) REMAINING IN PLACE ON SATURDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH RAIN CHANCES (POPS 50 TO
60 PERCENT RANGE) ACROSS THE REGION.
ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
SO OVERALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY WITH POPS IN THE LOW END
SCATTERED RANGE (30 PERCENT). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
70 OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE GULF AFFECTING MOST OF OUR TERMINALS TONIGHT.
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR WITH LOCAL BRIEF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. VFR BETWEEN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 90 76 91 / 90 60 20 30
FMY 74 92 76 92 / 80 50 20 30
GIF 73 90 76 91 / 70 60 20 30
SRQ 73 89 75 91 / 90 60 20 30
BKV 71 90 70 92 / 80 60 20 30
SPG 76 89 78 91 / 90 60 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-
HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-PINELLAS-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...14/MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...57/MCMICHAEL
AVIATION...63/JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
204 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA DEVELOPED THIS EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED
TO PERSIST. EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS OVERDOING CURRENT COVERAGE BUT
STILL SUGGESTS THIS COULD LAST PAST 06Z. WITH THE SFC FRONT
SINKING INTO FLORIDA...TOOK POPS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
CWA FOR THIS EVENING BUT BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS EARLY IN
THE MORNING AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP
COULD DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD.
JUST TWEAKED TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH OVERNIGHT MINS TO SEE IF FORECAST MINS NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD ACROSS EASTERN GA.
11
PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 256 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DRY AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY
HAVE REMAINED SOUTH OF THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE
FRONT...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY COULD
ALLOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THURSDAY WILL
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE DRY AIR MASS WILL DROP DEW POINTS
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
MOISTURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GA ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY
COULD FUEL ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...AS ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. THESE TEMPS ARE A FAR CRY
FROM THIS TIME LAST YEAR WHEN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BAKED UNDER
90+ HIGHS. HAD TO TWEAK DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS AND FORECAST CONDITIONS. A FEW MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING
THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE VERY DRY DEWPOINTS...AND HAVE HAD TO
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS AS A RESULT.
31
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 256 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
LATEST GFS LOOKS A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN ECMWF WITH GULF
MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT
CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM REASONABLE AND DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE ATTM
IN LOWERING THE CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST GFS SO HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES. ONE ITEM TO MONITOR WILL BE A POSSIBLE HYBRID CAD EVENT
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEDGE
POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS SOLUTION INCLUDES THIS FEATURE... HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES
NOT. IF GUIDANCE ENDS UP COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
THEN IT MAY SERVE TO FOCUS ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE. BEING SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY... HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS AS IS.
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS OF FORECAST APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
03
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 317 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PORTION WITH
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING ITS SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH...POSITIONED
OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA BY FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOKS TO BE JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
WITH DRY MID LEVELS AND A LACK OF OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING...FEEL
WE CAN KEEP A POP FREE FORECAST FOR NOW. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A
TRANSITION DAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND RETURN FLOW OCCURS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SEE SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL FOCUS POPS ON THE WESTERN
TIER OF THE AREA WHERE BUT CAP AT LOW END CHANCE FOR NOW.
MODELS NOW COMING INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND PROVIDING
FOR A DIFFLUENT PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS SUFFICIENTLY SO THAT THE GULF WILL BE OPEN
FOR RICH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE ENTIRE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER BY THIS TIME WILL BE 1.8 TO 2 INCHES WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED CYCLE...CAPPED POPS IN THE 50S FOR NOW
BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE THESE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE RAISED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH
AND AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES
AND NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...MVFR CEILINGS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS ARE IN THE 1200-2200FT RANGE AT THE MOMENT. NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO GET MUCH LOWER BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME 900-1000FT CEILINGS BY DAY BREAK. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
E IN THE 5-10KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 60 88 62 / 10 0 0 5
ATLANTA 82 64 86 66 / 5 0 0 5
BLAIRSVILLE 78 54 81 56 / 10 5 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 82 58 86 61 / 5 5 0 10
COLUMBUS 86 66 90 68 / 5 5 0 10
GAINESVILLE 80 61 84 63 / 5 5 0 5
MACON 85 63 89 65 / 5 0 0 5
ROME 83 58 88 61 / 5 5 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 83 59 86 63 / 5 0 0 10
VIDALIA 85 67 89 68 / 10 5 0 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....49
AVIATION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1025 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CREATING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE 2215L: MAIN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE FA CURRENTLY
MVG OUT OF CENTRAL AND INTO THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AS
EXPECTED...ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT MOVD EWRD INTO MORE STABLE
MARINE ENHANCED AIR SO LITTLE THUNDER LEFT OVR BUT POCKETS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PERSIST. STILL SEEING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
JUST W AND NW OF OUR BORDER W/ THE ACTUAL FRONT SO WILL KEEP CHC
THUNDER GOING INTO THE LATE NGT AS IS CURRENTLY FCST. SFC LOW PRES
TROF CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FA PROGGED TO CONT TO SLOWLY MV EWRD
OVRNGT AS SHARP UPPER TROF DIGS SEWRD. PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY MV
OUT OF FAR ERN AREAS ERLY SAT AM BUT MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE AS THE
UPPER TROF IS FCST TO CUTOFF JUST E OF THE FA SAT AM. POPS/WX
GRIDS APPEAR ON TRACK ATTM W/ NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...
UPDATE 1910L: SHOWERS W/ OCNL THUNDER CONT TO SLIDE EWRD ACROSS
OUR FA W/ FIRST BATCH THRU AND SECOND BATCH CURRENTLY CROSSING WRN
AND NWRN AREAS... MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE A FACTOR SPCLY ACROSS
SRN AND ERN AREAS AS FIRST BATCH WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVED
INTO THESE AREAS. MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF DIVING SEWRD INTO THE
AREA THIS EVE W/ ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD. W/ ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY TDY AND THE LOWER ATMOS NOW UNDERGOING DIMINISHED SFC HEATING...
CONCERN TURNS MORE TOWARDS THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
RADAR ESTIMATES PROBABLY OVERDONE W/ HAIL CONTAMINATION BUT LOCAL
AREAS ACROSS NRN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY NEAR CHAMBERLAIN LAKE ARE
SHOWING AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES LAST SEVERAL HRS WHERE SOME
TRAINING HAS OCCURRED SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREA FLOOD ADV FOR THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT HIGHEST CAT POPS ACROSS
THE N TIL AFTER MDNGT WHEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MDLS SUGGEST BEST
RAINFALL WILL FINALLY MOVE E OF THE AREA AND HAVE MENTIONED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PSBL ACROSS MAINLY NRN AND CENTRAL AREAS...
ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN COOLED BY THE RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
PREV DISC: CONVECTION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. NEW RUC HAS CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BUT CAPE REMAINS SKINNY. SHEAR NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE SO STILL EXPECTING THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LOW BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FREEZING LEVEL ONLY
AROUND 8K, SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. HRRR AND RUC MODEL INDICATE THIS
FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BUT
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW
OVER 1 INCH SO POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN
ANY STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. BASIN
AVERAGES APPEARS TO BE AROUND .25 ACROSS DOWNEAST WITH OVER HALF
OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BUT AGAIN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY
DOWNPOURS.
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS BORDERING NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY DAYS AND
CLEAR MILD NIGHT NIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY. HIGH ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND THEN MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST ON TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE
LATER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS BUT LOWER IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS ACROSS
DOWNEAST BETWEEN 07-12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, FOG WILL KEEP VSBY BELOW 1 NM TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/FOSTER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/FOSTER/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
718 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CREATING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE 1910L: SHOWERS W/ OCNL THUNDER CONT TO SLIDE EWRD ACROSS
OUR FA W/ FIRST BATCH THRU AND SECOND BATCH CURRENTLY CROSSING WRN
AND NWRN AREAS... MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE A FACTOR SPCLY ACROSS
SRN AND ERN AREAS AS FIRST BATCH WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVED
INTO THESE AREAS. MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF DIVING SEWRD INTO THE
AREA THIS EVE W/ ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD. W/ ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY TDY AND THE LOWER ATMOS NOW UNDERGOING DIMINISHED SFC HEATING...
CONCERN TURNS MORE TOWARDS THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
RADAR ESTIMATES PROBABLY OVERDONE W/ HAIL CONTAMINATION BUT LOCAL
AREAS ACROSS NRN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY NEAR CHAMBERLAIN LAKE ARE
SHOWING AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES LAST SEVERAL HRS WHERE SOME
TRAINING HAS OCCURRED SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREA FLOOD ADV FOR THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT HIGHEST CAT POPS ACROSS
THE N TIL AFTER MDNGT WHEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MDLS SUGGEST BEST
RAINFALL WILL FINALLY MOVE E OF THE AREA AND HAVE MENTIONED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PSBL ACROSS MAINLY NRN AND CENTRAL AREAS...
ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN COOLED BY THE RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
CONVECTION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON. NEW RUC HAS CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG
BUT CAPE REMAINS SKINNY. SHEAR NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LOW BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FREEZING LEVEL ONLY AROUND 8K, SMALL HAIL
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. HRRR AND RUC MODEL INDICATE THIS FIRST AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BUT IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW OVER 1 INCH SO
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGES APPEARS
TO BE AROUND .25 ACROSS DOWNEAST WITH OVER HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTH BUT AGAIN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY DOWNPOURS.
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS BORDERING NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY DAYS AND
CLEAR MILD NIGHT NIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY. HIGH ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND THEN MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST ON TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE
LATER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS BUT LOWER IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS ACROSS
DOWNEAST BETWEEN 07-12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, FOG WILL KEEP VSBY BELOW 1 NM TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/FOSTER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/FOSTER/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
623 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA OVER
ERN AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN CONTS TO
SHOW THE DISSIPATION OF THIS PCPN AFT SUNSET...WITH A NEW BAND OF
SHOWERS ENTERING THE MTNS OF ME/NH AROUND 09Z.
REST OF THE GRIDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.
PREV DISC...
SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIE
OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WEAK DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN ZONES BUT POPS LOOKING A BIT HIGH SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE
SHOULD JUST SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. WILL
AGAIN SEE LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
FREEZING LEVEL AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST. WILL SEE TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WITH ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE CLEARING WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES SLIDES THRU OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IS SANDWICHED BY
WEAK UPR LVL AND SFC IMPULSES TO PROVIDE A SLGT CHC TO MAYBE A CHC
OF -SHRA JUST BARELY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW -SHRA MAY JUST REACH INTO OUR FCST AREA.
STRONG UPR LVL AND SFC RIDGE BUILD IN WITH DRY AND WARMING WX FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN UPR LVL TROF AND APPROACHING SLOW MOVING
FNT BRING A CHC OF SHRA TUESDAY NGT THRU THURSDAY.
GENERALLY USED GFS40...HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NGT. FOR REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST USED GMOS...EXCEPT
USED A BLEND OF GFS40 AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT....IMPROVING TO VFR ON FRIDAY. AREAS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. VFR
WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN
KEEPS WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
331 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
LATEST RAP BASED MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS ARE HIGHLIGHTING MUCAPES OF
APPROXIMATELY 200-500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS IS DOWN
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE 12Z DTX RAOB BUT IN LOCKSTEP WITH 07.12Z
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. FORECAST SOUNDING DIAGNOSIS SHOWS SUBTLE
600-400MB WARMING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...IN TOW OF THE
LATE MORNING SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THIS VERY SUBTLE WARMING APPEARS
ENOUGH TO KNOCK OUT ANY STEEPER LAPSE RATES RESIDING IN THE
MIDLEVELS. SO...WHILE AN ISO-SCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IS STILL POSSIBLE HERE AT PEAK HEATING (SEE SAGINAW BAY CONVECTIVE
FIELD)...OVERALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY MOVING
FORWARD/NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE SAME CONVECTIVE VIGOR AS YESTERDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK MIDLEVEL WARMING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED
MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTREMELY LOW. EXPECT A
NICE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN INTO THE 50S
ALL AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING LARGE SCALE PATTERN DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN RECENT DAYS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO REORIENT EASTWARD BEGINNING
ON FRIDAY. LONGWAVE ADJUSTMENT WILL BE ANCHORED BY A STRONG LEAD
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON CARVING INTO THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE PERIPHERY ALIGNED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WHILE THIS WILL BRIEFLY DAMPEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT
FIELD AS THE ENTIRE RIDGE AXIS EASES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY....THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPER/STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY GRADIENT ON THE NORTH PERIPHERY OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN THIS WELL MIXED PROFILE INTO 800 MB TEMPERATURES
RESIDING IN THE 10C RANGE...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS PREDOMINATELY IN THE
LOWER 80S. WEAK MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPILLING EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WILL SCRAPE THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB
TOWARD THE END OF THE HEATING CYCLE. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS 300-400 J/KG OF MUCAPE EMERGES
IN A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CREST THE UPPER RIDGE
ARCING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL LIKELY COMMENCE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION RESIDING THROUGH THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE DAY...BEFORE EVENTUALLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST ARRAY OF MODEL
GUIDANCE HOLDING FIRM IN PROJECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HOLD TO OUR
NORTH AS IT ALIGNS EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PRIMARY BUT WEAKENING
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. A LOWER PROBABILITY CERTAINLY EXISTS GIVEN
THE SETUP FOR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT TO CLIP AT LEAST THE TRI-CITIES/
THUMB SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING...WORTHY OF A SMALL POP. REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY INCREMENTALLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REAMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ASSUMING
NEARLY FULL INSOLATION AND A STANDARD MIXING PROFILE...THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.
DEEP WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. EXPANSIVE
HEIGHT FALL REGION TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SAME TIME...LOOSELY ORGANIZED CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MEANDERING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BEGIN THE GRADUAL TREK NORTHEAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREE ON WHAT DEGREE THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL
MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING LARGER SCALE WESTERN TROUGH. 12Z GFS
LOCKS ON MORE AGGRESSIVELY...DRIVING AN ATTENDANT PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. A ECMWF/CANADIAN CONSENSUS ALLOWS FOR MORE
SEPARATION...LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO A CONSIDERABLY LESS DEEP UPSTREAM
LONGWAVE TROUGH...LEAVING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TUESDAY
PERIOD ATTENDANT WITH THE ARRIVING DEEPER HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC MONDAY
SHOULD A THICKER HIGH CLOUD CANOPY EMERGE EARLY...ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH
TO THE WARM LAYER BY THIS POINT STILL SUPPORTS HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER
80S.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
WEEK WITH NORTHWEST ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OFF OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AS THIS HIGH SETTLES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL MODERATE BY THIS WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...AND WHILE MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WILL REMAIN DRY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME OVER LAKE HURON. THIS
INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS OVER
THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 151 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
//DISCUSSION...
MODEST MOISTURE WITHIN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AGAIN POSE A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE INGREDIENTS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS REALLY ON THE LEAN SIDE...SO ANY
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO ISO-SCT - POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AT
ANY ONE LOCATION IS LOW. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MIXED OUT ACCORDING
TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SO EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE NORTH NORTHWEST
WIND DIRECTION TO CARRY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT
APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. SURFACE RIDGING TONIGHT AND LOSS OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT
BLOCKING UPR LO OVER NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN
THE PLAINS. SHRTWV ROTATING SWWD THRU QUEBEC IN CYC NE FLOW ALF ARND
THE CLOSED LO AND ACCOMPANYING AREA OF MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON WV IMAGE
AND SPC DIAGNOSED AREA OF KINX AOA 30 IS CAUSING SOME CLDS/A FEW
-SHRA OVER ERN LK SUP INTO ERN UPR MI INTO EARLY AFTN. ANOTHER
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS UNDER NNW FLOW IS
SINKING SSEWD THRU MN...BRINGING SOME SCT SHRA/TS TO MAINLY NE MN
UNDER STEEPER H85-5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB/AREA OF
HIER KINX NEAR 35 SHOWN ON SPC ANALYSIS/AREA OF H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH MN SHRTWV AS DIAGNOSED BY MAJORITY OF MODELS. A FEW
-SHRA ON THE ERN EDGE OF THIS AREA HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR WRN CWA
IWD. BTWN THESE TWO AREAS OF -SHRA...SFC/H85 HI PRES EXTENDING FM NW
ONTARIO THRU CNTRL LK SUP/UPR MI AND INTO NE WI AS WELL AS AXIS OF
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB /KINX 7/ IS
BRINGING MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WX.
TNGT...AFT ANY LINGERING DIURNAL -SHRA OVER THE W END EARLY THIS
EVNG...EXPECT A TRANQUIL NGT WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/
SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING SFC-H85 RDG AXIS OVER UPR MI. WITH MOCLR
SKIES/LGT WINDS/FCST PWAT 0.60-0.75 INCH ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NGT
AND DEWPTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID/UPR 30S THIS AFTN...EXPECT A
STEEP FALL OF TEMP TNGT BLO BULK OF GUIDANCE AND TOWARD READINGS AS
LO AS THE 30S OVER THE INTERIOR THAT WERE REPORTED THIS MRNG.
THU...UNDER RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC...SFC HI PRES
RDG AXIS WL BRING A DRY DAY TO THE CWA WITH SOME DIURNAL CU INLAND
FM LK BREEZES THAT FORM WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVHD.
WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT ARND 13C...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
AS 500MB LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY...STRONG OMEGA BLOCKING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LESS AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. STRONG 500MB LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING
ALBERTA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING EASTWARD TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPPER MI WILL BE LOCATED ON THE DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE DE-AMPLIFYING
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG 500MB LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP A RIDGING PATTERN
OVER UPPER MI ALOFT...WITH CORRESPONDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO
FLATTEN...SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEGIN
IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING
TO TRAVEL JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS WAA AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE TO 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS FAR AS
CONVECTION...DESPITE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE CWA...GFS MEAN
LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE /500-1000 J/KG/ AND
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE FAVORABLE OVER UPPER MI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR AND FRONTOGENESIS COULD STILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS BEING SAID...INCREASED POP VALUES TO LIKELY OVER AREAS OF BEST
FORCING...WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN MODERATE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES /30-40KTS/ AND A MORE FAVORABLE LOOKING CAPE
PROFILE WITH THIS LAST MODEL RUN...NEXT UPDATES MAY DECIDE TO GO
LIKELY TSRA AS WELL. REGARDLESS...THINK MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN. GFS BULLSEYES WELL OVER 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI...THOUGH REST OF MODELS SHOW MUCH LOWER VALUES WITH
THE MAIN PRECIP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A COMBINATION
OF THE NAM/ECMWF AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TO DERIVE QPF. BEST FORCING
AND MOISTURE WILL THEN EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST SATURDAY...WITH
SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF RAIN FAR EAST DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REGAIN CONTROL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT RESULTING LAKE BREEZES
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. AS
LAKE BREEZES CONVERGE IN THE AFTERNOON...WARM UNSTABLE AIR INTERIOR
WEST COULD RISE AND SPAWN A FEW TSRA/SHRA. EXACT SET UP AND LOCATION
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CAPE VALUES /800-1100 J/KG ML CAPE/ AND HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND.
MEANWHILE...STRONG 500MB LOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF TSRA/SHRA DURING PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. AFTER
PASSAGE...DRIER SOUTHERLY AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO UPPER
MI...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WI BORDER TO RISE TO THE UPPER
80S. TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOLER AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...500MB LOW WILL HAVE REACHED LAKE WINNIPEG...WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PROTRUDING AHEAD OF IT AND STRETCHING DOWN INTO
TEXAS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER UPPER MI WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD...SO WILL
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT...TRAVERSING
UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ ARE A GOOD
INDICATOR THAT TSRA ACTIVITY COULD VERY WELL BE PRESENT. 1000-2000
J/KG ML CAPE VALUES ALONG WITH A FAT CAPE PROFILE ALSO SUPPORT THIS
IDEA. SINCE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY INCONSISTENT ON EXACT TIMING FOR THE
PRECIP REACHING AND EXITING UPPER MI...WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME...WITH BEST FORCING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXITING EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT...BOTH EXTENDING FROM THE SAME 500MB LOW /NOW
OVER JAMES BAY/...WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THEN TRAVERSING UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL CU DURING
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING LAKE SUP THRU THU NGT...EXPECT WINDS LESS
THAN 20 KTS. ALTHOUGH A PAIR OF LO PRES SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI INTO SAT AND AGAIN ON MON...THE HI
STABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATERS WILL HOLD WIND SPEEDS
TO NO HIER THAN 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
337 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AND CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONTINENT... WITH A PROGRESSIVELY NARROWING SHARP RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA... BRACKETED BY A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONTINENT AND A SECOND UPPER LOW PUSHING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GENERAL THEME OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO BE DISSOLVE TO SOME
EXTENT AS IT BROADENS AND PUSHES EAST WHILE DISPLACING THE EASTERN
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL WORK THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST DURING THAT TIME... AND EVENTUALLY EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY MONDAY... BRINGING OUR CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL.. THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO
RELAX AND BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE COURSE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE SPEED WITH WHICH IS DOES SO IS UNCERTAIN
GIVEN A FAIR DEGREE OF DIFFERENCE IN THE GFS... ECMWF... AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS HOLDING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER LOW
IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS MUCH LONGER THAN THE
ECMWF... WHICH RIDES IT NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY FAIRLY QUICKLY.
FOR NOW... WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST... WHICH MEANS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER
PERIODS BEYOND MONDAY IS FAIRLY LOW. TEND TO PREFER THE SOMEWHAT
FASTER FRONTAL ARRIVAL ADVERTISED BY THE GFS... NAM... AND SREF ON
SUNDAY IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF GIVEN THE STRONG JET CURRENTLY
PUSHING ONSHORE OUT WEST AND THE SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH
TO OUR EAST WHICH IS ALREADY STARTING TO APPEAR.
FOR TONIGHT... MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN CWFA... WITH THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUING TO
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SHIFT
NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT... BUT WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME ACTIVITY BEFORE THAT OCCURS WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG REMAINING IN PLACE AND SOME HIGHER RH VALUES NEAR THE
ELEVATED LFC FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN NEAR
THAT AREA OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... SO KEPT
SOME POPS IN FOR THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... BY SATURDAY
WE SHOULD SEE THE WARM SECTOR REALLY WORK INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA... WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER...
WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S THROUGH THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GETTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED EAST BY THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE EVOLUTION AND
EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION... WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM...
GFS... AND ECMWF. HOWEVER... ALL SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE A FAIR
DEGREE TO OUR NORTHWEST... MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING... WITH ITS ATTENDANCE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION
STANDPOINT... THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE TO OUR NORTH... BUT GIVEN TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WE SHOULD HAVE AMPLE MLCAPE IN PLACE
WITH VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG... AS WELL AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS WE WORK INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIMITED HOWEVER... GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND WARM FRONT SO FAR TO OUR NORTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST... AT THIS
POINT... THAT OUR MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE DETAILS
SHOULD CERTAINLY COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY MORNING... WITH PERHAPS SOME SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
COLD POOL PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE DEGREE TO WHICH
THAT OCCURS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON WHETHER REALITY WINDS UP MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS OR ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS... WHICH IS SLOWER
TO KICK THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST... WOULD CERTAINLY SUGGEST
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS WELL OUT OF THE AREA AT THAT POINT... AND
WOULD HAVE COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER FOR US. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...
DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT RATHER
THAN INCLUDE A CHANCE MENTION FOR SOMETHING ON DAY SIX. DID
INCLUDE A MENTION FROM LATER WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY BY
THURSDAY... AS THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS THAT WE WOULD START TO
SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION BY THAT POINT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DKTS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE EAST TODAY TO NEAR THE MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY
SHOWS WHAT SHUD BE THE LAST VORT MAX COMING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. VORT IS NOW IN NE MN AND WILL SLIDE INTO NW WI THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE A FEW SHWRS AND TSTMS E
PTNS OF OUR AREA. MAY SEE ISOL AFTN CONVECTION AGAIN IN THE
EAST...BUT LACK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD MAKE AFTN CONVECTION
MORE ISOL THAN YESTERDAY. FARTHER WEST...SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE BECOME
PRETTY ACTIVE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS WC INTO SW MN WITH CONVECTION
FIRING IN THE STREAM OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMING OVER THE RIDGE.
INCREASED CONVECTION IN THAT AREA SEEMS TO BE TIED TO WEAK 850 MB
WAA WITH WINDS SHOWING SOME VEERING IN THAT AREA. NAM/GFS PLAY THIS
AS MAINLY A MORNING EVENT WITH 850 MB WINDS BACKING BY 18Z
DECREASING THE WAA. HRRR FORECAST RADAR REFLECTIVITY HAS ALSO BEEN
FOLLOWING THIS LOGIC.
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY IN THE WEST TODAY. AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS UP AROUND 2C...BUT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL TEMPER THE WARMUP. STARTING OUT VERY WARM WITH CURRENT
TEMPS AROUND 70...BUT LIMITED WARM UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE
TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YDA.
NEXT PLAYER IS THE SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS UTAH WHICH MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING NE INTO THE DKTS THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS N MN ON FRIDAY. POPS WILL GRADE FROM THE HIGH
CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE N CWA TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WARM AND A BIT BREEZY ON FRIDAY AS TROF MOVING ACROSS N MN TURNS
WINDS SWLY. SHUD SEE SOME HIGHS NEAR 90 IN SW AREAS.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE WEST SUNDAY AFTN AND ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. VERY WARM AND BREEZY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. BOTH DAYS SHUD SEE SOME HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90
DEGREE RANGE. WITH ENUF SUN COULD REACH LOWER 90S IN THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING A
CHILLY COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
A FEW AFTN SHWRS IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE
THAT FOR LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WEAK AND STATIONARY LLJ HAS WORKED WITH A NICE MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALOFT TO FORCE A RATHER PERSISTENT BAND OF -SHRA/-TSRA JUST WEST
OF AXN/RWF OVERNIGHT. LATEST RAP WANTS TO BRING BOTH FEATURES EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH WEAKENING BOTH IN THE PROCESS. NEW TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS BEING SEEN EAST OF THE MAIN TSRA BAND...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN INSTABILITY/FORCING. WITH
THAT SAID...WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...COVERAGE IN TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CITIES THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE LIMITED. ASSUMING SUN BREAKS OUT THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS
SHOWING STRONG INSTABILITY FORMING ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH THE NAM IS
SHOWING THE MPX AREA BEING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MORE LIMITED IF
THIS ARE IN THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH NO MENTION OF VCSH IS CURRENTLY
IN TAFS...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE HAS BEEN ACTIVE THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND THE AXIS LIKELY WILL NOT MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL
WITH BOUTS OF SCT CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...THOUGH HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMES. RATHER THAN PLASTER
THE TAFS WITH VCSH/VCTS...KEPT THOSE TO A MINIMUM...WITH NOMENTION
RETURNING UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF AT AXN/RNH/EAU. THE VCSH LATE
AT AXN IS TO ACCOUNT FOR REMNANTS OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE
DAKOTAS LATER TODAY...WHILE THE VCSH AT RNH/EAU WAS INCLUDED SINCE
THIS IS WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE...WITH WHAT WAS
SEEN LAST NIGHT POSSIBLY MOVING TO WI TONIGHT.
KMSP...LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD...AS
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...THE FORCING IS
LACKING. MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS HELPED KICK OF TSRA THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY...WITH NO UPSTREAM WAVE OF
NOTE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. WITH THAT SAID...WE COULD SEE PERIODS OF
-SHRA/-TSRA UNTIL THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY
MENTION VCSH THIS MORNING AS REMNANTS OF FORCING THAT LED TO WRN
MN STORMS LAST NIGHT TRIES WORKING INTO ERN MN.
.OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FRI...-SHRA/-TSRA PSBL IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR. WINDS SW 8-12KTS.
SAT/SUN...VFR. WINDS SAT SW 10-15KTS. WINDS SUN SW 15-20KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. CHC TSRA SUN EVENING/NGT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
BAP/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DKTS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE EAST TODAY TO NEAR THE MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY
SHOWS WHAT SHUD BE THE LAST VORT MAX COMING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. VORT IS NOW IN NE MN AND WILL SLIDE INTO NW WI THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE A FEW SHWRS AND TSTMS E
PTNS OF OUR AREA. MAY SEE ISOL AFTN CONVECTION AGAIN IN THE
EAST...BUT LACK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD MAKE AFTN CONVECTION
MORE ISOL THAN YESTERDAY. FARTHER WEST...SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE BECOME
PRETTY ACTIVE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS WC INTO SW MN WITH CONVECTION
FIRING IN THE STREAM OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMING OVER THE RIDGE.
INCREASED CONVECTION IN THAT AREA SEEMS TO BE TIED TO WEAK 850 MB
WAA WITH WINDS SHOWING SOME VEERING IN THAT AREA. NAM/GFS PLAY THIS
AS MAINLY A MORNING EVENT WITH 850 MB WINDS BACKING BY 18Z
DECREASING THE WAA. HRRR FORECAST RADAR REFLECTIVITY HAS ALSO BEEN
FOLLOWING THIS LOGIC.
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY IN THE WEST TODAY. AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS UP AROUND 2C...BUT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL TEMPER THE WARMUP. STARTING OUT VERY WARM WITH CURRENT
TEMPS AROUND 70...BUT LIMITED WARMUP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE
TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YDA.
NEXT PLAYER IS THE SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS UTAH WHICH MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING NE INTO THE DKTS THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS N MN ON FRIDAY. POPS WILL GRADE FROM THE HIGH
CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE N CWA TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WARM AND A BIT BREEZY ON FRIDAY AS TROF MOVING ACROSS N MN TURNS
WINDS SWLY. SHUD SEE SOME HIGHS NEAR 90 IN SW AREAS.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE WEST SUNDAY AFTN AND ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. VERY WARM AND BREEZY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. BOTH DAYS SHUD SEE SOME HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90
DEGREE RANGE. WITH ENUF SUN COULD REACH LOWER 90S IN THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING A
CHILLY COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
A FEW AFTN SHWRS IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE
THAT FOR LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAIN ISSUE THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE SCT SHOWERS THE REST OF THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT TURNING OF H85 WINDS FROM THE S OVER TO THE SW HAS
WORKED WITH N-S ORIENTED THETA-E GRADIENT TO GENERATE SOME MID-
LEVEL SHOWERS. EXPECT MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN
NODAK...BUT HRRR ALONG WITH NMM/ARW REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW
SHOWERS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
TWO PRIMARY BANDS OF CLOUDS ON SATELLITE ACROSS WRN AND ERN MN
LIKELY WHERE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TONIGHT...PUTTING A THREAT
FOR SOME -SHRA AT RWF/AXN/MSP IN PARTICULAR. STUCK WITH MAINLY
VCSH EVERYWHERE...WITH A TEMPO -SHRA FOR RWF...WHERE THE HRRR HAS
BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SOME ACTIVITY THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS. FOR EAU...BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
CLOUDS. SFC RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST MEANS ANOTHER NIGHT OF CALM
WINDS...AND IF CLOUDS CAN STAY OUT...FULLY EXPECT SOME 1/2SM OR
LESS TYPE FOG THERE THIS MORNING. PROBLEM IS...THEY WILL HAVE
CLOUDS IN THE AREA MOST OF THE EVENING...MEANING THERE COULD BE
QUITE THE VARIABILITY IN VSBY OVERNIGHT. WILL AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING
AS MUCH COVERAGE THU AS WAS SEEN WED AS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME SHRA...BUT NMM/ARW REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY AROUND AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY
CLEARS OUT.
KMSP...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW BOUTS OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD. KEPT A VCSH MENTION GOING
THROUGH 12Z...BUT COULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY LINGER THROUGH 15/16Z.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE RUNWAYS GET WET...VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL. HAVE BACKED OFF ON SHRA MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE FOCUSED NORTH OF HERE...NOT TO MENTION
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LOOK TO COME FRIDAY MORNING AS THE WEAKENING
FRONT MOVES IN.
.OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FRI...-SHRA/-TSRA PSBL IN THE MORNING. VFR. WINDS SW 8-12KTS.
SAT/SUN...VFR. WINDS SAT SW 10-15KTS. WINDS SUN SW 15-20KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. CHC TSRA SUN NGT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
BAP/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
111 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE...WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKING
TO TOUCH 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS. COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A AMPLIFIED RIDGE ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES..WITH A POWERFUL JET APPROACHING THE BASE OF A
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. CLOSER TO HOME...SHOWERS WITH
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST WITH A FEW ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. THESE WILL PERSIST TODAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED
THE ISOLATED WORDING FOR BOTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN TOMORROW
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND HEAD TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. ON FRIDAY...THE TAIL
END OF THIS PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AS LOW
LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE. WIND PROFILES ARE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WITH ROUGHLY 25 TO 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THEREFORE NOT RULING
OUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...AND BY SATURDAY H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. STILL EXPECTING SURFACE TEMPS
TO REACH 90F FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH 12HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 80 TO 100DM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ND/MT BORDER. THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN GIVEN THE STRONG CAP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD.
THE FORCING NECESSARY TO BREAK THROUGH THIS CAP WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THE 06.12 GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM DEPICT A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND CROSSING THE
DAKOTAS/MN BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TIME THE DYNAMICS WILL
CERTAINLY BE MORE FAVORABLE...BUT THE THERMODYNAMICS MAY BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. LOOKING AHEAD...ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAIN ISSUE THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE SCT SHOWERS THE REST OF THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT TURNING OF H85 WINDS FROM THE S OVER TO THE SW HAS
WORKED WITH N-S ORIENTED THETA-E GRADIENT TO GENERATE SOME MID-
LEVEL SHOWERS. EXPECT MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN
NODAK...BUT HRRR ALONG WITH NMM/ARW REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW
SHOWERS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
TWO PRIMARY BANDS OF CLOUDS ON SATELLITE ACROSS WRN AND ERN MN
LIKELY WHERE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TONIGHT...PUTTING A THREAT
FOR SOME -SHRA AT RWF/AXN/MSP IN PARTICULAR. STUCK WITH MAINLY
VCSH EVERYWHERE...WITH A TEMPO -SHRA FOR RWF...WHERE THE HRRR HAS
BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SOME ACTIVITY THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS. FOR EAU...BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
CLOUDS. SFC RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST MEANS ANOTHER NIGHT OF CALM
WINDS...AND IF CLOUDS CAN STAY OUT...FULLY EXPECT SOME 1/2SM OR
LESS TYPE FOG THERE THIS MORNING. PROBLEM IS...THEY WILL HAVE
CLOUDS IN THE AREA MOST OF THE EVENING...MEANING THERE COULD BE
QUITE THE VARIABILITY IN VSBY OVERNIGHT. WILL AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING
AS MUCH COVERAGE THU AS WAS SEEN WED AS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME SHRA...BUT NMM/ARW REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY AROUND AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY
CLEARS OUT.
KMSP...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW BOUTS OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD. KEPT A VCSH MENTION GOING
THROUGH 12Z...BUT COULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY LINGER THROUGH 15/16Z.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE RUNWAYS GET WET...VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL. HAVE BACKED OFF ON SHRA MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE FOCUSED NORTH OF HERE...NOT TO MENTION
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LOOK TO COME FRIDAY MORNING AS THE WEAKENING
FRONT MOVES IN.
.OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FRI...-SHRA/-TSRA PSBL IN THE MORNING. VFR. WINDS SW 8-12KTS.
SAT/SUN...VFR. WINDS SAT SW 10-15KTS. WINDS SUN SW 15-20KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. CHC TSRA SUN NGT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JRB/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
910 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
STARTING TO FINALLY SEE STORMS GAINING A LITTLE MORE MOMENTUM AND
COVERAGE ALONG INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET. HAVE HAD
THREE LOW-END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR AND EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THEN BE MORE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS MAXIMIZED
NW-SE OVER NE MONTANA. 850 MB JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND HELP TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND TRACK NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NOISY NIGHT FOR THE
AREA...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED FORECAST EARLIER
THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NECESSARY. MOYER
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS CLOSED UPPER
LOW/STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC-NW...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INTO MONTANA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON...THEN REACHES OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...MEETING UP WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS...
ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP SUGGEST STORM INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST. SO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE MAINLY
AFTER 00Z. THE STRONGEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF AROUND 2600 J/KG
REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF AROUND -7C ARE INDICATED IN THE SAME AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT...DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50KTS. INVERTED
V-SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
WITH ANY STORM. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF TOWARD THE NORTH. WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELECTED WITH THE
COORDINATION OF SPC TO TO A SPECIAL SOUNDING AROUND 20Z. SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH SEVERE WORDING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MODELS
SUGGEST AROUND A HALF INCH OF MOISTURE...BUT 1 HOUR FF GUIDANCE
HAS ROOM FOR AROUND AN INCH OR MORE. AFTER MIDNIGHT GROWTH OF
STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AS THEY TREND NORTHEAST INTO
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...CONTINUING WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL AND WINDS.
THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE ACTION AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN. THEN
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH POPS. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH 20MPH OVER FORT PECK LAKE
SATURDAY MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY...DRAGGING BACK
SIDE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STORM
SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH SOMEWHAT CALMER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AT LEAST INITIALLY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMES EVEN WEAKER AND ALLOWS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA FOR QUITE A WHILE.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO OUR
REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THIS LATER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE CASCADE RANGE AND CUTS OFF AS A
LARGE AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER
LOW MOVES EITHER EAST (GFS) OR NORTHEAST (ECMWF) OUT OF THE AREA.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO PART OF MONDAY. WILL
KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HAS MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFY AND SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OCCASIONALLY AND
BRIEFLY TO LIFR IF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN TO PASS DIRECTLY
OVER A TAF SITE...WHICH COULD EASILY HAPPEN FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH BY MID
DAY. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
415 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHETHER
OR NOT MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL REALIZE ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL WEATHER
SITUATION TONIGHT/TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK A LOT LIKE THE
PAST 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BEING A BIT WINDIER.
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD 1020MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO/IL BORDER AREA...WHILE OFF TO THE WEST A 1006MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND NEAR THE WY/SD
BORDER. IN BETWEEN...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT
MIXING INTO THE 800-750MB LEVEL HAS PROMOTED A BREEZY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH IN WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE GENERALLY LIVED UP TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS COULD FALL A HAIR SHORT OF TARGET VALUES GIVEN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD HIGH CIRRUS COVER. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT WITH
AN EMBEDDED LOW MEANDERING NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER. UPSTREAM...A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
500MB LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...A WELL-
DEFINED LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM EASTERN WY TO
CENTRAL MT IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST REGIONALLY...WITH THIS
WAVE ALREADY KICKING OFF SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS IN THE WY/SD/NE
BORDER AREA.
FOR THE 00Z-12Z NIGHT PERIOD...MADE ONLY ONE CHANGE OF NOTE TO
POPS/WEATHER. INSTEAD OF HAVING SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE 6-HOUR BLOCK FROM 00Z-06Z AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD...OPTED TO SHIFT THIS FORWARD BY 3 HOURS...INSTEAD
HIGHLIGHTING THE 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN ONLY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE
CWA...OR GENERALLY WEST OF A GREELEY-BEAVER CITY LINE. AND ONLY
KEPT THESE CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT AT THAT...AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TARGET THE DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST NEB.
LEANING ON HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...HRRR AND
12Z 4KM WRF-NMM...EXPECTATION IS THAT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FIRING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEB...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS
EAST TOWARD THE CWA. OPTED TO PULL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING OUT
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH IS LINE WITH SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK...BUT DEFINITELY MADE SURE TO KEEP A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR 50 MPH WINDS/PENNY SIZE HAIL IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES
MANAGE TO GET INTO THE CWA. THAT IS OF COURSE NO GUARANTEE THAT IT
WILL GET IN...AND THUS ONLY THE 20 POPS...AS THE HRRR AND ALSO
THE 18Z NAM/12Z GFS JUST BARELY BRING QPF INTO THE EDGE OF THE CWA
BEFORE REALLY FADING IT OUT. JUST DON/T SEE MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT UNLESS FOR SOME REASON A MAJOR EASTWARD-SURGING COLD POOL
GETS GOING...AS BY THE TIME CONVECTION SHOULD GET INTO THE CWA
ANTICIPATE MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO ONLY BE AROUND
500 J/KG...WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 20KT OR LESS. TURNING
TO OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
LOWER LOW TEMPS BY A SOLID 4-5 DEGREES BASED ON TRENDS FROM PAST
FEW NIGHTS...NOW BRINGING MOST OF THE CWA DOWN INTO THE 58-60
RANGE. DESPITE SOUTHERLY BREEZES REMAINING A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...JUST DON/T SEE HOW TEMPS CAN HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S ALL
NIGHT WITHOUT HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
FOR THE FRIDAY DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE AS IT ALREADY WAS...AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENS A BIT AND
BECOMES QUASI ZONAL...AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WELL UP INTO
CANADA...AND THE PARENT UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT DEEPER INTO THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. DESPITE THE DRY FORECAST...WOULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE SHOWER AFFECT A SMALL PORTION
OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING WITH SOME HINT OF 700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AROUND...BUT JUST CANNOT JUSTIFY INSERTING MORE THAN
SILENT VERY LOW POPS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMP-WISE...MADE
ALMOST NO CHANGE WHATSOEVER TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...WITH
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE 87-91 RANGE...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND WITH MIXING ADVERTISED TO
AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL PER NAM SOUNDINGS. IT WILL BE A BIT
WINDIER AS WELL THANKS TO HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF
THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA REALIZING
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30
TO POSSIBLY 35 MPH. ALONG THESE LINES...AND BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
TODAY...LOWERED DEWPOINTS QUITE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
ORDER OF 6-8 DEGREES...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
MIX ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING/MIXING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING FRIDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD RIDGING...WHILE A TROUGH SITS OVER THE EAST
COAST AND A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC
NW COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL IN PLACE...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST/SERN CONUS...AND LOW PRESSURE
SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEN THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE RIDGE AXIS GETS PUSHED EAST BY THE
PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THINGS STAYING CAPPED OFF WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE
13-16C RANGE. DID INCREASE WINDS A TOUCH ON SATURDAY INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE INCREASE AS SFC LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF NEB/NW KS AREA. AS FAR AS HIGHS GO...HAD TRENDED THEM
UP YESTERDAY...AND WILL KEEP THEM FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH 90S EXPECTED
CWA-WIDE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE MODELS AS WE GET INTO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WHILE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A QUICKER SOLUTION...THERE IS NOT COMPLETE AGREEMENT. AT 12Z
SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE
CENTRAL MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING S/SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AS FAR AS THE LOCATION OF THE
SFC FRONT GOES...BASICALLY RANGES FROM A QUICKER NAM/SREF WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING ROUGHLY A THIRD OF THE WAY IN...TO THE ECMWF WHICH
STILL HAS IT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO WRN KS. THROUGH THE DAY THAT
STORY REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...THE NAM/SREF/GFS ARE ON THE
QUICKER SIDE...SHOWING THE FRONT OUTSIDE THE E/SE CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 00Z MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS A TOUCH BEHIND. THOUGH
CONSIDERED INSERT A SLIGHT POP ACROSS THE FAR EAST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DIDNT WANT TO FLIP FLOP THE FORECAST...AND WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW TO SEE IF THE EC SPEEDS UP...OR THE OTHERS SLOW DOWN. INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE FASTER TREND IN THE
MODELS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...BASICALLY TIGHTENED UP THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. LEFT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND CONSIDERED TAKING PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT COMPLETELY
ACROSS THE NW...BUT WANT TO WAIT AND MAKE SURE THIS TREND STICKS.
CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...INSTABILITY NOT AN
ISSUE...HAVE BETTER FORCING WITH THE FRONT/WAVE...AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS BETTER BUT NOT GREAT. WITH THE
INCREASED CHANCE OF A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
BECOME MORE TRICKY. DID TREND BACK DUE TO THE QUICKER TIMING...WITH
MID 80S IN THE NW TO NEAR 90 IN THE SE...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY
ADDITIONAL TIMING CHANGES WOULD AFFECT THOSE FORECAST HIGHS.
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HINT AT THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE ACTIVITY
STARTING IN THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT WITHOUT BETTER AGREEMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT. A REINFORCING FRONT/SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
BUT DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 40S/LOW 50S BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS AS WE GET INTO WED/THURS...AND
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES TO CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION..AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS POSSIBLY DRIFTING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WANT TO SEE
BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING POPS AT THIS POINT. NOT EXPECTING
BIG CHANGES IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH CLOUD COVER MAINLY CONSISTING OF
A THIN VEIL OF HIGH CIRRUS. WILL ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THERE IS THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST NEARING KGRI
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT CONSENSUS OF MOST
FORECAST MODELS IS TO KEEP NEARLY ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST
100-150 MILES OFF TO THE WEST AND THUS WILL OMIT ANY PRECIPITATION
MENTION AT THIS TIME. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...A STEADY AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLACKENING TO AROUND 10KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY
MID-MORNING FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO
AROUND 20KT WILL AGAIN PICK UP.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1011 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
MAY HELP TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE FAIR WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE....SHOWERS FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE DIED DOWN
ASIDE FROM A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR TWO. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER
LAKE HURON NOW IS FORECASTED BY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
THE 08Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME FROM THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA NORTHWEST
INTO CNY. THE NEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 0Z NAM 12 HAVE SHIFTED
FARTHER NORTH A BIT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...WITH THE
FOCUS ACROSS CNY VS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. STILL THINKING THE
MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THESE
SYSTEMS TO DIVE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
630 PM
UPDATE...MAIN ACTION CONTINUES TO BE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NNY BEING IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. CLOSER TO HOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF 81 NOW WITH JUST A FEW STRIKES OF
LIGHTING. WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STAYING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WILL MAINTAIN JUST ISOLATED T-STORMS FOR THIS EVENING
THEN DRY PAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLD CONVECTION MAINLY ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA IS
XPCTD TO DIE OFF THIS EVNG. LATER TNGT...MCS WILL LIKELY MAKE ITS
WAY SEWD FROM ONTARIO. GFS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN OTHER
MDLS...BUT GEM AND NAM SUGGEST PCPN WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY
10-12Z.
RETAINED CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR TMRW WITH THIS SYSTEM. FCST BCMS
VERY INTERESTING TMRW AFTN. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW A NW-SE CORRIDOR
ACRS THE BGM CWA WHICH WILL BE FVRBL FOR POTNL SVR DVLPMNT. AS
EXPECTED...THE NAM VALUES ARE HIGHER AND ACTUALLY QUITE IMPRSV
FOR THIS AREA IN TERMS OF EHI AND COMPOSITE SVR PARAMS. GFS VALUES
ARE LOWER (NOT SUPRISING) AND PLACE AXIS OF GREATEST POTNL
SLIGHTLY FURTHER W OF THE NAM. WE NOTE THAT MCS`S OFTEN DELAY THE
ADVANCEMNT OF THE WMFNT SO THE GFS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. IN ANY
EVENT...IF WRN ZONES BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE SAT AFTN AIDING
DESTABLIZATION...THERE WILL BE THE POTNL FOR STRONG/SVR TSRA
ALONG/NEAR THE WMFNT MID TO LATE AFTN. BEST GUESS ATTM IS GREATEST
POTNL WOULD BE ACRS AREAS GNRLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY TMRW. FOR NOW WE HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCMENT TO THE
TSRA GRIDS ACRS WRN ZONES FOR TMRW AFTN..AND WILL MENTION POTNL IN
THE HWO.
MAX TEMPS VERY TRICKY TMRW WITH THE WMFNT...AND I COULD SEE A
SCENARIO WHERE MAXES ACRS THE EAST (U60S/L70S) ARE TOO WARM WHILE
MAXES WEST OF THE WMFNT (M/U70S) ARE TOO COOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION XPCTD SAT NGT VCNTY OF THE WMFNT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY...WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC HELP...COULD HELP
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...BUT MOST AREA SWILL JUST
HAVE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH WARM TEMPS. EVEN WARMER ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NXT SYSTEM WITH SOME AREAS APRCHNG 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR RDG SLIDES TO THE EAST MON ALLOWING A LRG TROF TO SETTLE INTO
THE NRN LAKES. GNRL LWRG OF HGTS AHD OF THE SFC FNT COMBINED WITH
AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER SCT SHWRS AND TRWS ON TUE
THEN CONTG THRU THE PD AS TROF SLOWLY MVES EAST. SOME IMPRVMT PSBL
LATE IN THE PD...AS A WEAK HI MVES IN...BUT OVERALL PTRN STILL HAS
THE AREA IN A BROAD TROF THRU THE WEEK.
FOR THE PD...ONCE AGAIN FLWD HPC GUID WHICH WAS IN RSNBL
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL MOS GUID.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NIGHT WITH INITIALLY
JUST SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THEN A MID DECK BY 06Z. MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. FOR KRME/KSYR JUST
INCLUDED FOUR HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR SHOWERS. REST OF TAFS
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, IN A MCS TYPE SYSTEM, WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS FROM APPROX 10Z-16Z. AFTER THIS WAVE PULLS THROUGH
ATMOSPHERE MAY DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE
FOR TSRA. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
18Z-22Z. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG STORMS.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT...SCT MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA
SUN/MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT VLY FOG PSBL EACH MRNG.
TUE...VFR GIVING WAY TO MVFR IN SCT TSRA
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
129 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN A FEW SPOTS. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL EXIT ON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MID-SUMMER HEAT TO WESTERN NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF
CENTERED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH THIS TROF
FORECAST TO SLOWLY EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE FORECAST
DRAWING UPON PERSISTENCE...AND WEIGHING OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM
YESTERDAY OVER MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
NAM/RGEM/GFS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING...THOUGH THEY
LACK THE RESOLUTION TO FULLY RESOLVE THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES. THE HRRR FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO HOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPED YESTERDAY...PROVIDING THE MOST USEFUL FORECAST GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO BREEZES...AND ALSO ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING INTO THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MINIMAL INSTABILITY UP TO AROUND 500
J/KG...WHICH IS GENERALLY MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT...AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE OR EVEN
NEAR-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM`S. HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS OF AROUND 8000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DROP SOME SMALL HAIL. LAKE SHADOWING WILL LIKELY
KEEP LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF EACH OF THE LAKES DRY
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST OF BUFFALO METRO DRY TODAY.
WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORTH TOWNS SINCE THEY ARE CLOSER TO
THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE A TAD
WARMER TODAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TODAY.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUALLY EXIT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A FEW CLOUDS LEFT OVER THIS EVENING FROM ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...BUT THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT...AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE COOLER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE MID-50S NEAR THE LAKES AND IN THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
NATION`S MIDSECTION. WHILE THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION IN THE PATTERN
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
THERE WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF FEATURES FOR OUR AREA TO CONTEND
WITH BEFOREHAND.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL COME ON FRIDAY...WHEN A MODERATELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CORRESPONDING 110-120 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT
TO LIFT A STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL RIDGING/DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MUCH WEAKER OVERALL LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD DIE DOWN RATHER QUICKLY IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING MECHANISMS. FOLLOWING THIS...THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING...THOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES.
AFTER THAT...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIPPLE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEADING FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE WORKING INTO OUR REGION...THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIANCE IN THE TIMING
AND POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...THE FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY NAM/ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL
TEND TO FOCUS CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/GENESEE
VALLEY EASTWARD...WHILE THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
GFS WOULD LARGELY KEEP ANY CONVECTION CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES...
FOR NOW FEEL IT PRUDENT TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR
BOTH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT WITH A TIMING AND
POSITIONING TILTED A BIT CLOSER TO THE FASTER NAM/ECMWF/GEM
CONSENSUS.
TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REFLECT THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE THE AXIS OF THE CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE RESULTING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A STEADY
WARMING AND MUGGIFYING TREND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +12C TO +16C
ON SUNDAY CLIMBING TO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY. SUCH
WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON SUNDAY AND THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WITH A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS POSSIBLY CRACKING THE 90
DEGREE MARK MONDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE FOR ESPECIALLY UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POPPING UP ACROSS OUR WARMER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON... THOUGH FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DRY FORECAST WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AFTER THAT...THE LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO FEATURE A
TRANSITION BACK TO A COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE REGIME AS A PACIFIC
LOW BARRELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND INTO
CANADA...TAKING UP STATION IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PRECEDED
BY A LEADING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHILE
SOME LESSER DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THE TWO GUIDANCE PACKAGES
HAVE BOTH CONTINUED TO SLOW THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH NOW
LOOKS AS IF IT COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT FAR WESTERN SECTIONS LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY OOZING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BACKED OFF A BIT ON POPS FOR
TUESDAY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY ASSOCIATED CHANCE POPS NOW INDICATED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO SERVE AS THE
FOCUS. SOME STRONGER SHOWERS MAY BUILD INTO THUNDERSTORMS...FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. BUF/ART WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHADOWED BY THE
LAKES...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...WHILE ROC/IAG/JHW WILL ALL HAVE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHILE
CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR/MVFR...EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY TO BE VFR.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY TOWARD MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/TMA
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
715 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN A FEW SPOTS. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL EXIT ON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MID-SUMMER HEAT TO WESTERN NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF
CENTERED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH THIS TROF
FORECAST TO SLOWLY EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE FORECAST
DRAWING UPON PERSISTENCE...AND WEIGHING OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM
YESTERDAY OVER MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
NAM/RGEM/GFS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING...THOUGH THEY
LACK THE RESOLUTION TO FULLY RESOLVE THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES. THE HRRR FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO HOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPED YESTERDAY...PROVIDING THE MOST USEFUL FORECAST GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO BREEZES...AND ALSO ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING INTO THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MINIMAL INSTABILITY UP TO AROUND 500
J/KG...WHICH IS GENERALLY MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT...AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE OR EVEN
NEAR-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM`S. HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS OF AROUND 8000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DROP SOME SMALL HAIL. LAKE SHADOWING WILL LIKELY
KEEP LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF EACH OF THE LAKES DRY
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST OF BUFFALO METRO DRY TODAY.
WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORTH TOWNS SINCE THEY ARE CLOSER TO
THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE A TAD
WARMER TODAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TODAY.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUALLY EXIT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A FEW CLOUDS LEFT OVER THIS EVENING FROM ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...BUT THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT...AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE COOLER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE MID-50S NEAR THE LAKES AND IN THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
NATION`S MIDSECTION. WHILE THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION IN THE PATTERN
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
THERE WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF FEATURES FOR OUR AREA TO CONTEND
WITH BEFOREHAND.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL COME ON FRIDAY...WHEN A MODERATELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CORRESPONDING 110-120 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT
TO LIFT A STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL RIDGING/DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MUCH WEAKER OVERALL LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD DIE DOWN RATHER QUICKLY IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING MECHANISMS. FOLLOWING THIS...THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING...THOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES.
AFTER THAT...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIPPLE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEADING FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE WORKING INTO OUR REGION...THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIANCE IN THE TIMING
AND POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...THE FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY NAM/ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL
TEND TO FOCUS CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/GENESEE
VALLEY EASTWARD...WHILE THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
GFS WOULD LARGELY KEEP ANY CONVECTION CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES...
FOR NOW FEEL IT PRUDENT TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR
BOTH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT WITH A TIMING AND
POSITIONING TILTED A BIT CLOSER TO THE FASTER NAM/ECMWF/GEM
CONSENSUS.
TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REFLECT THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE THE AXIS OF THE CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE RESULTING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A STEADY
WARMING AND MUGGIFYING TREND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +12C TO +16C
ON SUNDAY CLIMBING TO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY. SUCH
WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON SUNDAY AND THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WITH A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS POSSIBLY CRACKING THE 90
DEGREE MARK MONDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE FOR ESPECIALLY UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POPPING UP ACROSS OUR WARMER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON... THOUGH FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DRY FORECAST WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AFTER THAT...THE LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO FEATURE A
TRANSITION BACK TO A COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE REGIME AS A PACIFIC
LOW BARRELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND INTO
CANADA...TAKING UP STATION IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PRECEDED
BY A LEADING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHILE
SOME LESSER DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THE TWO GUIDANCE PACKAGES
HAVE BOTH CONTINUED TO SLOW THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH NOW
LOOKS AS IF IT COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT FAR WESTERN SECTIONS LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY OOZING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BACKED OFF A BIT ON POPS FOR
TUESDAY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY ASSOCIATED CHANCE POPS NOW INDICATED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS. SOME STRONGER
SHOWERS MAY BUILD INTO THUNDERSTORMS...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. BUF/ART WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHADOWED BY THE
LAKES...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...WHILE ROC/IAG/JHW WILL ALL HAVE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHILE
CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR/MVFR...EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY TO BE VFR.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
447 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN A FEW SPOTS. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL EXIT ON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MID-SUMMER HEAT TO WESTERN NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF
CENTERED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH THIS TROF
FORECAST TO SLOWLY EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM/RAP HAVE THUS FAR OVERDONE A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE
TRENDS THROUGH 300 AM SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FINALLY
FORMING...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS
OTHER LOCATIONS WHICH REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY FOG SHOULD
BE QUITE QUICK TO BURN OFF.
OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE
FORECAST DRAWING UPON PERSISTENCE...AND WEIGHING OBSERVATIONAL DATA
FROM YESTERDAY OVER FORECAST GUIDANCE. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NAM/RGEM/GFS
ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING...THOUGH THEY LACK THE
RESOLUTION TO KEY ON THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. THE HRRR FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO HOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY...PROVIDING THE
MOST USEFUL FORECAST GUIDANCE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE OF THE LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO
BREEZES...AND ALSO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MINIMAL INSTABILITY UP TO
AROUND 500 J/KG...PERHAPS A TAD LESS YESTERDAY AS THE UPPER LEVELS
WARM. LAKE SHADOWING WILL LIKELY KEEP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES DRY
TODAY...INCLUDING MUCH OF BUFFALO METRO...THOUGH THE NORTH
TOWNS WILL RUN A RISK OF A SHOWERS SINCE THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER
TODAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TODAY.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUALLY EXIT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A FEW CLOUDS LEFT OVER THIS EVENING FROM ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...BUT THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT...AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE COOLER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE MID-50S NEAR THE LAKES AND IN THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
NATION`S MIDSECTION. WHILE THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION IN THE PATTERN
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
THERE WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF FEATURES FOR OUR AREA TO CONTEND
WITH BEFOREHAND.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL COME ON FRIDAY...WHEN A MODERATELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CORRESPONDING 110-120 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT
TO LIFT A STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL RIDGING/DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MUCH WEAKER OVERALL LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD DIE DOWN RATHER QUICKLY IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING MECHANISMS. FOLLOWING THIS...THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING...THOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES.
AFTER THAT...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIPPLE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEADING FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE WORKING INTO OUR REGION...THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIANCE IN THE TIMING
AND POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...THE FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY NAM/ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL
TEND TO FOCUS CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/GENESEE
VALLEY EASTWARD...WHILE THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
GFS WOULD LARGELY KEEP ANY CONVECTION CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES...
FOR NOW FEEL IT PRUDENT TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR
BOTH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT WITH A TIMING AND
POSITIONING TILTED A BIT CLOSER TO THE FASTER NAM/ECMWF/GEM
CONSENSUS.
TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REFLECT THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE THE AXIS OF THE CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE RESULTING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A STEADY
WARMING AND MUGGIFYING TREND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +12C TO +16C
ON SUNDAY CLIMBING TO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY. SUCH
WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON SUNDAY AND THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WITH A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS POSSIBLY CRACKING THE 90
DEGREE MARK MONDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE FOR ESPECIALLY UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POPPING UP ACROSS OUR WARMER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON... THOUGH FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DRY FORECAST WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AFTER THAT...THE LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO FEATURE A
TRANSITION BACK TO A COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE REGIME AS A PACIFIC
LOW BARRELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND INTO
CANADA...TAKING UP STATION IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PRECEDED
BY A LEADING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHILE
SOME LESSER DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THE TWO GUIDANCE PACKAGES
HAVE BOTH CONTINUED TO SLOW THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH NOW
LOOKS AS IF IT COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT FAR WESTERN SECTIONS LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY OOZING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BACKED OFF A BIT ON POPS FOR
TUESDAY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY ASSOCIATED CHANCE POPS NOW INDICATED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z...THE ONLY REAL CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. A BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY PROVIDE A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF
CLOUDS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT JHW GIVEN ITS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATION. ANY FOG WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN
OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH MID- MORNING.
FOR TODAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP...WITH LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AGAIN LIKELY TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS. SOME
STRONGER SHOWERS SHOULD BUILD INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. FEEL BUF/ART WILL
MOST LIKELY BE SHADOWED BY THE LAKES...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AT THESE LOCATIONS...WHILE ROC/ART/JHW WILL ALL HAVE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
WHILE CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR/MVFR...EXPECT
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY TO BE VFR.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
334 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN A FEW SPOTS. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL EXIT ON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MID-SUMMER HEAT TO WESTERN NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF
CENTERED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH THIS TROF
FORECAST TO SLOWLY EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM/RAP HAVE THUS FAR OVERDONE A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE
TRENDS THROUGH 300 AM SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FINALLY
FORMING...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS
OTHER LOCATIONS WHICH REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY FOG SHOULD
BE QUITE QUICK TO BURN OFF.
OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE
FORECAST DRAWING UPON PERSISTENCE...AND WEIGHING OBSERVATIONAL DATA
FROM YESTERDAY OVER FORECAST GUIDANCE. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NAM/RGEM/GFS
ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING...THOUGH THEY LACK THE
RESOLUTION TO KEY ON THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. THE HRRR FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO HOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY...PROVIDING THE
MOST USEFUL FORECAST GUIDANCE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE OF THE LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO
BREEZES...AND ALSO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MINIMAL INSTABILITY UP TO
AROUND 500 J/KG...PERHAPS A TAD LESS YESTERDAY AS THE UPPER LEVELS
WARM. LAKE SHADOWING WILL LIKELY KEEP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES DRY
TODAY...INCLUDING MUCH OF BUFFALO METRO...THOUGH THE NORTH
TOWNS WILL RUN A RISK OF A SHOWERS SINCE THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER
TODAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TODAY.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUALLY EXIT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A FEW CLOUDS LEFT OVER THIS EVENING FROM ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...BUT THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT...AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE COOLER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE MID-50S NEAR THE LAKES AND IN THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
NATION`S MIDSECTION. WHILE THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION IN THE PATTERN
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
THERE WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF FEATURES FOR OUR AREA TO CONTEND
WITH BEFOREHAND.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL COME ON FRIDAY...WHEN A MODERATELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CORRESPONDING 110-120 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT
TO LIFT A STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL RIDGING/DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MUCH WEAKER OVERALL LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD DIE DOWN RATHER QUICKLY IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING MECHANISMS. FOLLOWING THIS...THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING...THOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES.
AFTER THAT...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIPPLE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEADING FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE WORKING INTO OUR REGION...THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIANCE IN THE TIMING
AND POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...THE FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY NAM/ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL
TEND TO FOCUS CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/GENESEE
VALLEY EASTWARD...WHILE THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
GFS WOULD LARGELY KEEP ANY CONVECTION CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES...
FOR NOW FEEL IT PRUDENT TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR
BOTH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT WITH A TIMING AND
POSITIONING TILTED A BIT CLOSER TO THE FASTER NAM/ECMWF/GEM
CONSENSUS.
TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REFLECT THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE THE AXIS OF THE CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE RESULTING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A STEADY
WARMING AND MUGGIFYING TREND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +12C TO +16C
ON SUNDAY CLIMBING TO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY. SUCH
WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON SUNDAY AND THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WITH A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS POSSIBLY CRACKING THE 90
DEGREE MARK MONDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE FOR ESPECIALLY UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POPPING UP ACROSS OUR WARMER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON... THOUGH FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DRY FORECAST WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AFTER THAT...THE LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO FEATURE A
TRANSITION BACK TO A COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE REGIME AS A PACIFIC
LOW BARRELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND INTO
CANADA...TAKING UP STATION IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PRECEDED
BY A LEADING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHILE
SOME LESSER DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THE TWO GUIDANCE PACKAGES
HAVE BOTH CONTINUED TO SLOW THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH NOW
LOOKS AS IF IT COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT FAR WESTERN SECTIONS LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY OOZING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BACKED OFF A BIT ON POPS FOR
TUESDAY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY ASSOCIATED CHANCE POPS NOW INDICATED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z...THE ONLY REAL CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A FAIRLY BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WHICH WOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING (AND FOG
POTENTIAL) IF IT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWS FAIRLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS UPSTREAM...WITH FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS WHICH
DO CLEAR REPORTING SOME FOG. BASED ON A BLEND OF CLIMATOLOGY AND
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG AT
IAG/JHW...BUT LEAVE IT OUT OF OTHER TAF LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...A
THE LONGER SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS CALM...THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER VSBY POSSIBLE
TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY FOG WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY THROUGH MID-MORNING.
FOR TODAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP...WITH LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AGAIN LIKELY TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS. SOME
STRONGER SHOWERS SHOULD BUILD INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. FEEL BUF/ART WILL
MOST LIKELY BE SHADOWED BY THE LAKES...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AT THESE LOCATIONS...WHILE ROC/ART/JHW WILL ALL HAVE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
WHILE CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR/MVFR...EXPECT
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY TO BE VFR.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
200 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES, ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING EACH DAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING US SHOWERS SATURDAY BEFORE A
STRETCH OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TWEAK DIMINISHING AXIS
OF SHOWERS AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ALSO...DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL FLOAT THEIR WAY DOWN
OVERNIGHT...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...INCLUDING PROSPECT FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS.
630 PM UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATED LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...TO DETERMINISTICALLY HONE IN ON AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO RULE OUT LOCATIONS NOT LIKELY TO SEE
ANYTHING. STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO QUITE
OBVIOUS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE LAKE AND SOUTH OF THE
THRUWAY...YET MAINLY SUNNY IN BETWEEN. HRRR MODEL DOING AN
ADMIRABLE JOB PLACING CONVECTION IN AN ENHANCED LINE ALONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE...ABOUT TO SPREAD THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS...AND
HEADING SOUTH WHILE DECREASING IN COVERAGE WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT. SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
EXPECTED. WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND EVEN A BIT OF SMALL HAIL. AT THE
OFFICE WE HAD HAIL JUST A BIT BIGGER THAN THE SIZE OF A PEA AND
MOST RECENTLY UP IN ROME 1/4" HAIL OR THE SIZE OF A PEA FROM
NUMEROUS SPOTTERS. WITH VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS...NOT SURPRISING
WE WILL SEE A BIT OF HAIL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE WITH VERY
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE (INVERTED V SOUNDINGS). I AM NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TO TURN SEVERE WITH NO SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THE STORMS FOR
ANY LENGTH OF TIME. AS THESE STORMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN EXPECT
THE ACTION TO DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT QUITE AS
WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND A BIT
BETTER MIXING OFF THE DECK...DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
THURSDAY FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TRENDS IN PLACEMENT
OF VORTICITY LOBES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THOUGH THERE IS
A GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...I PLACED
HIGHEST POPS /40-50-ISH/ ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF NY TO
CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHWARD...BASED ON THESE FACTORS...WHILE PUSHING
IT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. ALSO...I BEGAN THE INITIAL INCREASE IN
POPS A BIT EARLIER...BECAUSE OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL ALREADY BE
PRESENT IN THE MID LEVELS IN THE MORNING...WHICH SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
WILL TAKE LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING TO BE REALIZED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY...WE STILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF THE CUT OFF
LOW ACROSS THE MARITIMES SO MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY ON. THE FREEZING LEVEL
IS ABOUT 1000 FEET HIGHER TOMORROW (6500 FEET VS. 7500 FEET)...BUT
STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
CELLS. AGAIN NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE HOWEVER BUT DEF. WORTH
A MENTION.
FRIDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DRIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT WE WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT A DRY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM I-81 WEST. WITH THAT SAID WE ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE LOW AND THE MODELS STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS EAST...TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST.
SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON PRECIP
FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. ALL THREE
MODELS (EURO/NAM/GFS) SHOW A WAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WITH SCT. SHOWERS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING THE
SLOWEST MODEL BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS NY
STATE. ACROSS PA SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIP
GETS. FOR NOW WILL COVER THIS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD FEATURES A BLDG RDG FROM THE MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE OLD
CLSD LOW AS IT DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE RDGG...STILL SOME
PSBLTY OF AFTN CONV...ESP EARLY IN THE PD AS WEAK WVS SLIDE DOWN
THE ERN SIDE OF THE RDG...AND AGAIN ON TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE AS
A STRONG WV COMES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND KICKS THE RDG TO THE
EAST. IT WILL BE WARM...AS H8 TEMPS APRCH 16C TO 18C WITH SUMMER
TIME HUMIDITY.
GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID FOR THE PD. RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BASED GUID AND THE ECMWF MAKES THIS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE XTNDD
FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THU UPDATE... THE MAIN PD OF RESTRICTIVE CONDS IS EARLY THIS
MRNG (THROUGH ABT 12-13Z)...AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG BLANKET THE TWIN
TIERS...AND BRING IFR CONDS AT KELM/KITH/KBGM.
BY EARLY TO MID-AFTN...SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED TO RE-FIRE
OVER NY`S SRN TIER AND NE PA. HOWEVER...HIT AND MISS COVERAGE
PRECLUDES THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.
OTHWS...VFR EXPECTED...WITH W TO NW WINDS INCREASING TO ARND 10 KT
BY AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
THU AFTN/FRI..MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FROM FOG...ESPECIALLY VALLEY TERMINALS.
SAT - MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE SAT IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN/MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND SLIP SOUTHEAST TO
THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LARGE CUTOFF TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE CUTOFF TROUGH IS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS SHORT
WAVE DEPARTS...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD OVER OUR AREA...BRINGING A MUCH WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKS END AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY WE`RE SEEING SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CU DEVELOPING IN
A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOWS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR 6-10K FT DEEP CU TO DEVELOP AROUND H8...BEFORE
REACHING THE CAPPING INVERSION AROUND H6. THIS INVERSION WEAKENS
UPSTREAM CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...AND WE`RE BEGINNING
TO SEE DEEPER CU AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST N/NW OF THE
TRIAD. THUS CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED.
FOR TONIGHT...DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING INVERSION FURTHER
WEAKENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT AND ACROSS OUR NW AREAS AS
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS VA MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH AS THEY
DRIFTS SOUTH WHILE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE SFC RIDGE STILL CENTERED TO OUR NORTHWEST...
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR
MOISTURE PROFILE AS TODAY...BUT WARMING BETWEEN H5-H7 WILL CAP
DEVELOPING DAYTIME CU. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS UNDER
THIS RIDGE AND GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 60 AS
THE SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND WITH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST. EXPECT VERY SHALLOW DAYTIME
CU AND VERY WARM TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
ON SUNDAY WE`LL SEE AN ELONGATED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER NE
TX AND LA GRADUALLY DRIFTING NE ALONG THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS OUR
AREA...BUT DRY AND WARM MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PRECLUDE PRECIP. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...SO WE`LL SEE
HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM...
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HEIGHTS
IS NOTED ACROSS TX AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LOW
THAT MARGINALLY CLOSES OFF. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME AND
THE TX/GULF LOW OPENS AND LIFTS NORTH AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. EVENTUALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WHICH REACHES THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY AND THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER FEATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF UPPER LOW AND THE TIMING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON DAYS 6/7 ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DECREASES WED
AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
WEST WHERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT AND GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. WILL CAP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES. BUT WITH PW
VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND AT LEAST SOME
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY HIGHER. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY REDUCING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDINESS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE CONTRACTS FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND WITH HIGHS
NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM THURSDAY...
MODIFIED OBSERVATION AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CU AROUND 5-6K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW. NOTED THAT THE HRRR INDICATED A
FEW VERY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES THE NEED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT... THEN BECOMING NW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.
LOOKING AHEAD: RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE
WARMING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...NP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND SLIP SOUTHEAST TO
THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 935 AM THURSDAY...
THIN CLOUD COVERAGE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB A BIT MORE QUICKLY
AND WILL ADJUST THE TREND ACCORDINGLY. RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INDICATE POTENTIAL HIGHS A BIT ABOVE ONGOING FORECAST AS WELL AND
WILL NUDGE UP A BIT TO REACH SOME LOWER 80S. EXPECT MORNING
CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK
SURFACE TROF AND THE VORT MAXIMA ROUNDING THE UPPER TROF LATE DAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE WEST THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD.
THROUGH TONIGHT: 00Z/7TH UPPER AIR DATA AND WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A
MID-UPPER SHEAR AXIS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING; AND THIS LOW SHEAR AXIS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FINAL S/W TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. UNLIKE WED
MORNING AT THIS TIME WHEN AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN HAD BLOSSOMED OVER
THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT...ONLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PRECEDING
IMPULSES/SHEAR VORTICITY CENTERS -- THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IN -- ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND IMAGERY AND
NWP ANALYSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER EASTERN GREAT LAKES S/W
TROUGH. FURTHERMORE...PRONOUNCED LOW-MID LEVEL VEERING AND IMPLIED
WARM ADVECTION FORCING FOR ASCENT SAMPLED BY THE 12Z/6TH KGSO RAOB
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A MUCH MORE WEAKER WAA REGIME FROM THE SC
UPSTATE INTO CENTRAL NC...BASED UPON VWP DATA IN THE 925-700 MB
LAYER FROM KGSP TO KCLT TO KRAX THIS MORNING. THIS WAA REGIME LINES
UP REASONABLY WELL WITH WHERE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL
DATA DEPICT SCT TO BKN 5-12 THOUSAND FT CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING...WHILE LOWER CLOUD BASES TO THE WEST ARE LIKELY A FUNCTION
OF LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY 925 MB UPSLOPE FLOW.
NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ALREADY WEAK AND SPATIALLY LIMITED WAA
REGIME WILL DIMINISH TODAY...PARTICULARLY BY 15-18Z. SO SKY COVER
SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ON AVERAGE AND ACCORDINGLY HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO TO UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S GIVEN EXPECTED DRY ADIABATIC THERMAL PROFILES
THROUGH AROUND H85. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED...WITH JUST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF RALEIGH...WHERE ALBEIT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA MAY INTERACT WITH THE WEAKENING WAA REGIME EARLY
TODAY...AND ALSO WHERE THE FORCING FROM THE STRONGER S/W TROUGH HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO OVERLAP IN TIME WITH THE END OF PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INDEED...THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
AND THE PARENT NAM/WRF SUGGEST SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER VA THIS
AFTERNOON MAY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT LATE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE DISSIPATING. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FINAL EASTERN GREAT LAKES S/W TROUGH SHOULD
PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED COOL WITH THE
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE STILL SUPPRESSED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY: 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
FRI...AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FINALLY-DEPARTING
MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
WARMING...CHARACTERIZED BY LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 10-15 METERS
HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPECTED THU...SUGGEST HIGHS OF 82 TO 87 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKEWISE REACH THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.
THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA WHILE RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN DIURNAL AND LESS THAN TEN PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY...86 TO 91 SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES 55 TO
60 FRIDAY NIGHT... MOSTLY MID 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM...
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HEIGHTS
IS NOTED ACROSS TX AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LOW
THAT MARGINALLY CLOSES OFF. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME AND
THE TX/GULF LOW OPENS AND LIFTS NORTH AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. EVENTUALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WHICH REACHES THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY AND THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER FEATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF UPPER LOW AND THE TIMING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON DAYS 6/7 ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DECREASES WED
AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
WEST WHERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT AND GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. WILL CAP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES. BUT WITH PW
VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND AT LEAST SOME
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY HIGHER. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY REDUCING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDINESS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE CONTRACTS FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND WITH HIGHS
NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM THURSDAY...
MODIFIED OBSERVATION AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CU AROUND 5-6K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW. NOTED THAT THE HRRR INDICATED A
FEW VERY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES THE NEED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT... THEN BECOMING NW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.
LOOKING AHEAD: RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE
WARMING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...NP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
135 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND SLIP SOUTHEAST TO
THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 935 AM THURSDAY...
THIN CLOUD COVERAGE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB A BIT MORE QUICKLY
AND WILL ADJUST THE TREND ACCORDINGLY. RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INDICATE POTENTIAL HIGHS A BIT ABOVE ONGOING FORECAST AS WELL AND
WILL NUDGE UP A BIT TO REACH SOME LOWER 80S. EXPECT MORNING
CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK
SURFACE TROF AND THE VORT MAXIMA ROUNDING THE UPPER TROF LATE DAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE WEST THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD.
THROUGH TONIGHT: 00Z/7TH UPPER AIR DATA AND WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A
MID-UPPER SHEAR AXIS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING; AND THIS LOW SHEAR AXIS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FINAL S/W TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. UNLIKE WED
MORNING AT THIS TIME WHEN AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN HAD BLOSSOMED OVER
THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT...ONLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PRECEDING
IMPULSES/SHEAR VORTICITY CENTERS -- THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IN -- ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND IMAGERY AND
NWP ANALYSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER EASTERN GREAT LAKES S/W
TROUGH. FURTHERMORE...PRONOUNCED LOW-MID LEVEL VEERING AND IMPLIED
WARM ADVECTION FORCING FOR ASCENT SAMPLED BY THE 12Z/6TH KGSO RAOB
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A MUCH MORE WEAKER WAA REGIME FROM THE SC
UPSTATE INTO CENTRAL NC...BASED UPON VWP DATA IN THE 925-700 MB
LAYER FROM KGSP TO KCLT TO KRAX THIS MORNING. THIS WAA REGIME LINES
UP REASONABLY WELL WITH WHERE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL
DATA DEPICT SCT TO BKN 5-12 THOUSAND FT CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING...WHILE LOWER CLOUD BASES TO THE WEST ARE LIKELY A FUNCTION
OF LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY 925 MB UPSLOPE FLOW.
NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ALREADY WEAK AND SPATIALLY LIMITED WAA
REGIME WILL DIMINISH TODAY...PARTICULARLY BY 15-18Z. SO SKY COVER
SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ON AVERAGE AND ACCORDINGLY HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO TO UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S GIVEN EXPECTED DRY ADIABATIC THERMAL PROFILES
THROUGH AROUND H85. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED...WITH JUST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF RALEIGH...WHERE ALBEIT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA MAY INTERACT WITH THE WEAKENING WAA REGIME EARLY
TODAY...AND ALSO WHERE THE FORCING FROM THE STRONGER S/W TROUGH HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO OVERLAP IN TIME WITH THE END OF PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INDEED...THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
AND THE PARENT NAM/WRF SUGGEST SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER VA THIS
AFTERNOON MAY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT LATE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE DISSIPATING. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FINAL EASTERN GREAT LAKES S/W TROUGH SHOULD
PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED COOL WITH THE
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE STILL SUPPRESSED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY: 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
FRI...AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FINALLY-DEPARTING
MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
WARMING...CHARACTERIZED BY LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 10-15 METERS
HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPECTED THU...SUGGEST HIGHS OF 82 TO 87 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKEWISE REACH THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.
THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA WHILE RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN DIURNAL AND LESS THAN TEN PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY...86 TO 91 SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES 55 TO
60 FRIDAY NIGHT... MOSTLY MID 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS
EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE HELP OF A
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER WAVE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING IN THE
ABOVE SITUATION SO FAR OUT IN TIME IS SUSPECT... BUT A ONE IN THREE
RAIN CHANCE IN THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS MORE THAN
REASONABLE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE PROSPECTS FOR
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY 86 TO 90... WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY TOO WARM... ESPECIALLY WEST. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM THURSDAY...
MODIFIED OBSERVATION AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CU AROUND 5-6K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW. NOTED THAT THE HRRR INDICATED A
FEW VERY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES THE NEED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT... THEN BECOMING NW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.
LOOKING AHEAD: RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE
WARMING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLM
AVIATION...NP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1131 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE BRUNT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
STRETCHING FROM JUST EAST OF MOHALL TO NEWBURG AND INTO RUGBY AND
BALTA. WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH ROTATE THIS AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AFTER 06Z...WEAKEN IT...THEN
STRENGTHEN IT SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY 11Z
THURSDAY NEAR WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH. UTILIZING THE LATEST
HRRR/NAM/GFS...THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ALONG OUR
WESTERN BORDER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD ALONG THE BORDER NORTH INTO WILLISTON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN
UTAH. THIS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT PIVOTS NORTHEAST NEXT
24HR. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY IS HANDLED WELL AND WILL LOOK MORE INTO IT LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK WEST INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE FOCUS OF WHICH WILL BE WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY. THROUGH 7 PM CDT THURSDAY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF AERODROMES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY
WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH 9 AM THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...IMPACTING KDIK/KBIS/KMOT/KISN AFTER 15Z/10 AM CDT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
355 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL CONTROL
THE REGIONS WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A CHANCE RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCT SHRA HAS POPPED UP AS EXPECTED IN NW OH AND OVER INTO ERN
OH...BRUSHING THE NRN AND ERN COUNTIES OF THE FA. LATEST HRRR RUN
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THIS
RUN ALLOWS THE CONVECTION TO BUBBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
DYING DOWN BY 00Z. FOLLOWED THIS SCENARIO...KEEPING 20 POPS IN THE
APPROXIMATELY THE NE 1/2 OF THE FA UNTIL 6PM...THEN RAMPED DOWN
QUICKLY TO 0 POP.
EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AS THEY DID
LAST EVENING. THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE VERIFIED THE BEST LAST
NIGHT...SO LEANED TOWARDS IT AGAIN FOR TONIGHTS LOWS. GENERALLY
WENT BETWEEN 50 AND 55.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. FLOW AT H5 STILL REMAINS NWLY...BUT IT WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY AS RIDGING WORKS E THROUGH THE DEEP S.
EXPECT A FEW CU TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT IT
HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
IT WILL STILL WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY...PUSHING INTO THE LOWER
80S. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 50S FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOCUS OF FCST REMAINS TIMING OF RAIN FOR MONDAY AND HOW WARM TEMPS
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY. QUESTION OF 90 DEGREE MARK FOR
SUNDAY. WILL BE NEAR OR AT THE MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE NORMAL
BUT CERTAINLY NOT UNCOMMON FOR JUNE.
BIG QUESTION IS SURGE OF MOISTURE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN TO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTH. AGAIN
AS IN MOST CASES TIMING IS PROBLEMATIC BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS.
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WILL GO WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT COULD BE
RAISED DEPENDING MODEL OUTCOME CLOSER TO FCST PERIOD. MODELS ARE
MORE IN AGREEMENT OF PUSHING MOISTURE EAST WITH COLD FRONT BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS GIVES STRONG INDICATION FOR GOING DRY
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMP FCST TRICKY FOR MONDAY DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. WILL SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER AND COOLER
SCENARIOS FOR NOW. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND PERHAPS NOT COOL ENOUGH
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE COLUMBUS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO PAST FEW NIGHTS EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG AROUND KLUK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. SOME CUMULUS WILL START TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL REACH
THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWING SOME
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING IN NW OH THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADDED A 20
POP TO THAT AREA. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A SMALL MENTION IN FAR
NE OH AND NW PA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS.
ORIGINAL...EVENING SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING INTO
NORTHERN OHIO AND SKIES ARE CLEAR IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THESE CLOUDS TOO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE WITH A TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER ACROSS THE AREA THAN YESTERDAY.
GIVEN THIS UPPER TROF HOWEVER...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DECK WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS.
WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NWRN PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT FAIR SKIES AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BUT PASSAGE WILL BE SUBTLE AS THERMAL
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. STILL CONCERNED
THAT ANY COMPLEX DEVELOPING ON THE GRADIENT TO OUR NORTHWEST WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO OR
NORTHWEST PA. STARTED PRECIP CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT FAR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUED SATURDAY. RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
NWRN PA SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS BASED ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS.
THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND WOULD SUPPORT A LOWER POP. WILL WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS
FOR FINE TUNING. TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD REACHING 80S FOR HIGH MOST PLACES (EXCEPT NWRN PA) SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE SURFACE AND
AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY...WE CAN
EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP TO WARM AIR TEMPERATURES
BACK TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE WARM UP WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STRONG STREAM OF
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. TIMING OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GOOD NEWS IS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
NOT THAT COOL BUT WE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF DAYBREAK MVFR FOG THAT
COULD OCCUR AT THE MORE PRONE TAF SITES SUCH AS CAK. AFTERNOON CU
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET LEAVING ONLY A FEW PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT. SOME SCT CU WILL PROBABLY REDEVELOP BY NOON ON
FRI WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUE WHEN SCT
TSRA WILL PRODUCE LOCAL NON VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING TO HOIST ANY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
953 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL REACH
THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWING SOME
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING IN NW OH THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADDED A 20
POP TO THAT AREA. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A SMALL MENTION IN FAR
NE OH AND NW PA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS.
ORIGINAL...EVENING SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING INTO
NORTHERN OHIO AND SKIES ARE CLEAR IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THESE CLOUDS TOO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE WITH A TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER ACROSS THE AREA THAN YESTERDAY.
GIVEN THIS UPPER TROF HOWEVER...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DECK WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS.
WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NWRN PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT FAIR SKIES AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BUT PASSAGE WILL BE SUBTLE AS THERMAL
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. STILL CONCERNED
THAT ANY COMPLEX DEVELOPING ON THE GRADIENT TO OUR NORTHWEST WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO OR
NORTHWEST PA. STARTED PRECIP CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT FAR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUED SATURDAY. RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
NWRN PA SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS BASED ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS.
THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND WOULD SUPPORT A LOWER POP. WILL WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS
FOR FINE TUNING. TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD REACHING 80S FOR HIGH MOST PLACES (EXCEPT NWRN PA) SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE SURFACE AND
AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY...WE CAN
EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP TO WARM AIR TEMPERATURES
BACK TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE WARM UP WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STRONG STREAM OF
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. TIMING OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GOOD NEWS IS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
NOT THAT COOL BUT WE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING TO HOIST ANY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING WITH A COLD FRONT BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONUS TODAY WITH LITTLE DEVIATION IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM RECENT DAYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
LKLY FROM THE EARLY AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
THE KEY FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYC FLOW ALOFT...ROTATING SEWD ACRS THE ERN
GRT LKS AND SERN CANADA. THIS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS DISCERNIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING WV LOOP...WITH THE COLDEST 500MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C ASSOCD WITH A VORTMAX CROSSING LAKE HURON. THE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE SEWD AND
EXTEND ACRS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN. STRONG BLYR HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LKLY
BEING REACHED BY 18Z. THE HI RES NAM AND HRRR SHOW CONVECTION
INITIATING OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BTWN 18-19Z WITH INC CVRG
SPREADING SWD BY 22Z. DESPITE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MSTR...IT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
DURING PEAK HEATING...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 7 C/KM.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN THE SEE TEXT CATG OUTLOOK BASED ON
THIS LINE OF THINKING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AFT
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE ALL
TOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.
MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS BUT STILL
ABOUT 2-5F BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATE NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S OVR THE N/W MTNS TO THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL AND SERN VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE SETTLED WX TO THE REGION. STILL CAN/T RULE
OUT AN AFTN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR NE ZONES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
DIVING SE INTO NEW ENG. HOWEVER...BULK OF FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE HEADED NORTH OF PA...SO WILL ONLY MENTION A 20
PCT CHC. AM SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND CU BY
AFTN OVR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS. MDL 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPS FROM THE M70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO THE L80 ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
FRI NIGHT LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AS RIDGE SLIDES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MDL DATA HINTS THAT REMNANTS OF A DYING
MCS COULD APPROACH NW PA TOWARD DAWN...BRINGING INCR CLOUDS AND
THE CHC OF A SHRA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLUSTERING OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A BETTER THAN AVG
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD PA
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMER AND MORE
SETTLED CONDS THAN WE/VE SEEN RECENTLY. HOWEVER...STILL A CHC OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND...AS NORTHERN PA WILL
REMAIN ON PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE. BEST CHC WILL BE SAT...WHEN
MDLS SHOW FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N OF PA. RISING MID
LVL TEMPS SHOULD CAP MOST CONVECTION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED PM STORM OVR THE NE PART OF THE CWA. ENSEMBLE MEAN
850 TEMPS OVR THE WEEKEND OF ARND 14C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE U70S ALLEGHENIES...TO M80S SUSQ VALLEY.
MONDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST...AS UPPER
RIDGE PASSES OVR PA. WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS AFTN
CONVECTION OVR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS TO THE M80S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO EASTERN PA WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE
WARM-UP OVR THE NORMALLY WARMER SUSQ VALLEY.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE PULLS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST TUE-WED...MERGING IT WITH APPROACHING TROF OVR THE GRT LKS.
ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU CENTRAL PA ARND
WED OF NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRONT
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD RAINFALL OVR THE AREA. A BLEND
OF LATEST GEFS AND OPER MDL DATA SUGGEST AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR STRATUS AT IPT WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY 13Z. THE MAIN UPDATE
FOR THE 12Z TAFS WAS TO ADD VCNTY SH/TS FOR THE AFTN. HI RES MDL
DATA IS ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BEGINNING AROUND 17Z. USED VCTS ONLY AT IPT GIVEN 6HR
CCFP BUT A TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE IN CTP AIRSPACE FROM
THIS AFTN THRU THE EARLY EVE. STORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM NW TO SE AND
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE NERN CONUS. THEREFORE WITH RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING...SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
BY THE EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS.
GIVEN XPCTD CVRG AND LOW POINT PROBABILITIES...WILL NOT MENTION
PCPN IN TAFS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING
WILL DISSIPATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH CU FIELD GIVING WAY
TO M/CLR CONDS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT-SUN MAINLY OVER NRN PA
AS UPSTREAM TSTM COMPLEX/S DROP SEWD ACRS SERN CANADA/LWR GRT
LKS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR. SCT PM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-MON...VFR. A.M. FOG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
621 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING WITH A COLD FRONT BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONUS TODAY WITH LITTLE DEVIATION IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM RECENT DAYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
LKLY FROM THE EARLY AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
THE KEY FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYC FLOW ALOFT...ROTATING SEWD ACRS THE ERN
GRT LKS AND SERN CANADA. THIS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS DISCERNIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING WV LOOP...WITH THE COLDEST 500MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C ASSOCD WITH A VORTMAX CROSSING LAKE HURON. THE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE SEWD AND
EXTEND ACRS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN. STRONG BLYR HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LKLY
BEING REACHED BY 18Z. THE HI RES NAM AND HRRR SHOW CONVECTION
INITIATING OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BTWN 18-19Z WITH INC CVRG
SPREADING SWD BY 22Z. DESPITE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MSTR...IT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
DURING PEAK HEATING...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 7 C/KM.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN THE SEE TEXT CATG OUTLOOK BASED ON
THIS LINE OF THINKING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AFT
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE ALL
TOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.
MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS BUT STILL
ABOUT 2-5F BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATE NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S OVR THE N/W MTNS TO THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL AND SERN VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE SETTLED WX TO THE REGION. STILL CAN/T RULE
OUT AN AFTN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR NE ZONES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
DIVING SE INTO NEW ENG. HOWEVER...BULK OF FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE HEADED NORTH OF PA...SO WILL ONLY MENTION A 20
PCT CHC. AM SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND CU BY
AFTN OVR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS. MDL 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPS FROM THE M70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO THE L80 ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
FRI NIGHT LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AS RIDGE SLIDES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MDL DATA HINTS THAT REMNANTS OF A DYING
MCS COULD APPROACH NW PA TOWARD DAWN...BRINGING INCR CLOUDS AND
THE CHC OF A SHRA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLUSTERING OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A BETTER THAN AVG
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD PA
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMER AND MORE
SETTLED CONDS THAN WE/VE SEEN RECENTLY. HOWEVER...STILL A CHC OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND...AS NORTHERN PA WILL
REMAIN ON PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE. BEST CHC WILL BE SAT...WHEN
MDLS SHOW FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N OF PA. RISING MID
LVL TEMPS SHOULD CAP MOST CONVECTION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED PM STORM OVR THE NE PART OF THE CWA. ENSEMBLE MEAN
850 TEMPS OVR THE WEEKEND OF ARND 14C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE U70S ALLEGHENIES...TO M80S SUSQ VALLEY.
MONDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST...AS UPPER
RIDGE PASSES OVR PA. WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS AFTN
CONVECTION OVR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS TO THE M80S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO EASTERN PA WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE
WARM-UP OVR THE NORMALLY WARMER SUSQ VALLEY.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE PULLS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST TUE-WED...MERGING IT WITH APPROACHING TROF OVR THE GRT LKS.
ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU CENTRAL PA ARND
WED OF NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRONT
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD RAINFALL OVR THE AREA. A BLEND
OF LATEST GEFS AND OPER MDL DATA SUGGEST AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1-200FT STRATUS AND FOG AT BFD ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATED AT A FEW
HOURS AGO...BUT 500FT CIGS NOW IMPACTING IPT ON QUE. IR SATL
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING ST INVOF BFD SO WILL KEEP TEMPO GOING
UNTL 11Z BUT PROB IS LOW. FOG/ST WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE AND PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE NERN CONUS. THEREFORE WITH RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING...SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
BY THE EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS.
GIVEN XPCTD CVRG AND LOW POINT PROBABILITIES...WILL NOT MENTION
PCPN IN TAFS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING
WILL DISSIPATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH CU FIELD GIVING WAY
TO M/CLR CONDS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT-SUN MAINLY OVER NRN PA
AS UPSTREAM TSTM COMPLEX/S DROP SEWD ACRS SERN CANADA/LWR GRT
LKS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR. SCT PM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-MON...VFR. A.M. FOG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
520 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING WITH A COLD FRONT BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONUS TODAY WITH LITTLE DEVIATION IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM RECENT DAYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
LKLY FROM THE EARLY AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
THE KEY FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYC FLOW ALOFT...ROTATING SEWD ACRS THE ERN
GRT LKS AND SERN CANADA. THIS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS DISCERNIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING WV LOOP...WITH THE COLDEST 500MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C ASSOCD WITH A VORTMAX CROSSING LAKE HURON. THE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE SEWD AND
EXTEND ACRS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN. STRONG BLYR HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LKLY
BEING REACHED BY 18Z. THE HI RES NAM AND HRRR SHOW CONVECTION
INITIATING OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BTWN 18-19Z WITH INC CVRG
SPREADING SWD BY 22Z. DESPITE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MSTR...IT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
DURING PEAK HEATING...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 7 C/KM.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN THE SEE TEXT CATG OUTLOOK BASED ON
THIS LINE OF THINKING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AFT
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE ALL
TOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.
MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS BUT STILL
ABOUT 2-5F BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATE NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S OVR THE N/W MTNS TO THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL AND SERN VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE SETTLED WX TO THE REGION. STILL CAN/T RULE
OUT AN AFTN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR NE ZONES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
DIVING SE INTO NEW ENG. HOWEVER...BULK OF FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE HEADED NORTH OF PA...SO WILL ONLY MENTION A 20
PCT CHC. AM SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND CU BY
AFTN OVR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS. MDL 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPS FROM THE M70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO THE L80 ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
FRI NIGHT LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AS RIDGE SLIDES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MDL DATA HINTS THAT REMNANTS OF A DYING
MCS COULD APPROACH NW PA TOWARD DAWN...BRINGING INCR CLOUDS AND
THE CHC OF A SHRA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLUSTERING OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A BETTER THAN AVG
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD PA
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMER AND MORE
SETTLED CONDS THAN WE/VE SEEN RECENTLY. HOWEVER...STILL A CHC OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND...AS NORTHERN PA WILL
REMAIN ON PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE. BEST CHC WILL BE SAT...WHEN
MDLS SHOW FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N OF PA. RISING MID
LVL TEMPS SHOULD CAP MOST CONVECTION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED PM STORM OVR THE NE PART OF THE CWA. ENSEMBLE MEAN
850 TEMPS OVR THE WEEKEND OF ARND 14C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE U70S ALLEGHENIES...TO M80S SUSQ VALLEY.
MONDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST...AS UPPER
RIDGE PASSES OVR PA. WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS AFTN
CONVECTION OVR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS TO THE M80S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO EASTERN PA WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE
WARM-UP OVR THE NORMALLY WARMER SUSQ VALLEY.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE PULLS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST TUE-WED...MERGING IT WITH APPROACHING TROF OVR THE GRT LKS.
ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU CENTRAL PA ARND
WED OF NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRONT
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD RAINFALL OVR THE AREA. A BLEND
OF LATEST GEFS AND OPER MDL DATA SUGGEST AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
M/CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WNDS WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT OBS/T-TD
SPREADS AND OBS FROM LAST NIGHT...LCL IFR CONDS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO BFD AND IPT. FOG/ST WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE AND PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE NERN CONUS. THEREFORE WITH RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING...SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
BY THE EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS.
GIVEN XPCTD CVRG AND LOW POINT PROBABILITIES...WILL NOT MENTION
PCPN IN TAFS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING
WILL DISSIPATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH CU FIELD GIVING WAY
TO M/CLR CONDS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT-SUN MAINLY OVER NRN PA
AS UPSTREAM TSTM COMPLEX/S DROP SEWD ACRS SERN CANADA/LWR GRT
LKS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR. SCT PM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-MON...VFR. A.M. FOG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
420 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING WITH A COLD FRONT BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONUS TODAY WITH LITTLE DEVIATION IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM RECENT DAYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
LKLY FROM THE EARLY AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
THE KEY FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYC FLOW ALOFT...ROTATING SEWD ACRS THE ERN
GRT LKS AND SERN CANADA. THIS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS DISCERNIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING WV LOOP...WITH THE COLDEST 500MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C ASSOCD WITH A VORTMAX CROSSING LAKE HURON. THE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE SEWD AND
EXTEND ACRS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN. STRONG BLYR HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LKLY
BEING REACHED BY 18Z. THE HI RES NAM AND HRRR SHOW CONVECTION
INITIATING OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BTWN 18-19Z WITH INC CVRG
SPREADING SWD BY 22Z. DESPITE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MSTR...IT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
DURING PEAK HEATING...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 7 C/KM.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN THE SEE TEXT CATG OUTLOOK BASED ON
THIS LINE OF THINKING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AFT
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE ALL
TOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.
MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS BUT STILL
ABOUT 2-5F BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATE NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S OVR THE N/W MTNS TO THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL AND SERN VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN TROF POSITION WILL MOVE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST A SCHC OF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE
ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES EASTWARD TREK AS THE PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI- ZONAL ORIENTATION INTO SAT.
AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHS COULD BRING A
WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
EARLY SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS MOVE THIS PERTURBATION FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVERLAYING THE AREA AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE MASON DIXON BY 06Z SUN. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD HAVE INCREASED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE...PRESENCE OF DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUNDAY...AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. CURRENTLY THE
ONLY FOR SURE DRY DAYS SEEM TO BE FRIDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH GIVEN
VARIABILITY OF MESOSCALE FEATURES THROUGH SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AT
LONGER RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO
HEDGE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING A FEW DEGS
WARMER EACH DAY. THE CURRENT RUNS ARE TRENDING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER SUNDAY AND MONDAYS
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BE COURTESY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL DISRUPT THE MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TUE- WED. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN THIS PATTERN THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT TIMING
VARIATION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
M/CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WNDS WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT OBS/T-TD
SPREADS AND OBS FROM LAST NIGHT...LCL IFR CONDS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO BFD AND IPT. FOG/ST WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE AND PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE NERN CONUS. THEREFORE WITH RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING...SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
BY THE EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS.
GIVEN XPCTD CVRG AND LOW POINT PROBABILITIES...WILL NOT MENTION
PCPN IN TAFS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING
WILL DISSIPATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH CU FIELD GIVING WAY
TO M/CLR CONDS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT-SUN MAINLY OVER NRN PA
AS UPSTREAM TSTM COMPLEX/S DROP SEWD ACRS SERN CANADA/LWR GRT
LKS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR. SCT PM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-MON...VFR. A.M. FOG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
800 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS WILL BE COMING SHORTLY. WILL
REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED...WITH DRYLINE
REMAINING WEST OF FORECAST AREA...AND NO OPPORTUNE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ANTICIPATED. REMAINING ELEMENTS OF FORECAST LOOK FINE.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KAMA THROUGH 02Z BEFORE BECOMING
VFR THROUGH 09Z. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
09Z-15Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS 11Z-13Z. COULD SEE SOME
BR DEVELOP...BUT THINK THE LOWEST FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE CAUSED BY
CIGS.
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KDHT 0830Z-
1200Z. MAY SEE SOME BR...BUT SSW WINDS MAY PREVENT THIS FROM
MATERIALIZING.
HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KGUY
10Z-15Z. LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...DON/T BELIEVE ANY BR WILL
DEVELOP.
S/SSW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY AT ALL TAF SITES.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...EXCEPT IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...CUMULUS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON MESA. IF
THESE DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEY COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AND IN FACT...THE RAP SHOWS THIS SCENARIO
FOR A BRIEF WINDOW THIS EVENING. HIGH CIN VALUES AND RELATIVELY WEAK
0 TO 6 KM MEAN FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THE OK
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...BUT IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
AREA.
TOMORROW...THE DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW.
BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS PROGRESS
EAST...POSSIBLY MOVING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ENTIRELY. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLD FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO...IF NOT
ENTERING...THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THAT
STRONG DAY TIME COLD FRONTS ARE ABNORMAL FOR MID JUNE...EXPECT THAT
THE FRONT WILL SLOW IF NOT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE DRY AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE DRYLINE PROGRESSES EAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HAVE ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD STILL
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. STARTING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANCES FOR STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...IN A STARK DEPARTURE FROM
BOTH THE GFS AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF...NOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE
TO A SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY BEHIND THE FRONT. AM HESITANT TO GO WITH
THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO
HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GFS SOLUTION.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN...AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
PANHANDLES TOMORROW. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND GREEN FUELS...DO NOT
EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER
EAST...POSSIBLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. STILL...GIVEN THE CONDITION
OF THE FUELS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSH
THROUGH ALL OF THE PANHANDLES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER...AND
THUS HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
13/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
640 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KAMA THROUGH 02Z BEFORE BECOMING
VFR THROUGH 09Z. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
09Z-15Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS 11Z-13Z. COULD SEE SOME
BR DEVELOP...BUT THINK THE LOWEST FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE CAUSED BY
CIGS.
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KDHT 0830Z-
1200Z. MAY SEE SOME BR...BUT SSW WINDS MAY PREVENT THIS FROM
MATERIALIZING.
HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KGUY
10Z-15Z. LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...DON/T BELIEVE ANY BR WILL
DEVELOP.
S/SSW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY AT ALL TAF SITES.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...EXCEPT IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...CUMULUS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON MESA. IF
THESE DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEY COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AND IN FACT...THE RAP SHOWS THIS SCENARIO
FOR A BRIEF WINDOW THIS EVENING. HIGH CIN VALUES AND RELATIVELY WEAK
0 TO 6 KM MEAN FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THE OK
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...BUT IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
AREA.
TOMORROW...THE DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW.
BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS PROGRESS
EAST...POSSIBLY MOVING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ENTIRELY. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLD FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO...IF NOT
ENTERING...THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THAT
STRONG DAY TIME COLD FRONTS ARE ABNORMAL FOR MID JUNE...EXPECT THAT
THE FRONT WILL SLOW IF NOT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE DRY AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE DRYLINE PROGRESSES EAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HAVE ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD STILL
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. STARTING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANCES FOR STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...IN A STARK DEPARTURE FROM
BOTH THE GFS AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF...NOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE
TO A SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY BEHIND THE FRONT. AM HESITANT TO GO WITH
THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO
HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GFS SOLUTION.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN...AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
PANHANDLES TOMORROW. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND GREEN FUELS...DO NOT
EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER
EAST...POSSIBLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. STILL...GIVEN THE CONDITION
OF THE FUELS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSH
THROUGH ALL OF THE PANHANDLES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER...AND
THUS HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
JJ/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1156 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT...WITH LIFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 KT WILL PREVAIL. BY AROUND 16Z THURSDAY...CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE...WITH ANY MVFR BR DISSIPATING.
CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RESUMING BY
20Z. IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE /AROUND 05Z FRIDAY/ AT KAMA.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
UPDATE...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CONVECTION THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AS EVIDENT BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
DECREASE IN TOTAL LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THE MOMENTUM OF THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY SURVIVE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...BUT A ROGUE WIND GUST UP TO 50 MPH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 4
AM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A CLAUDE TO CANADIAN LINE. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES.
REGARDING THE PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
GOOD BET TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ADRIAN TO
BEAVER LINE AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY 3-8 DEGREES IN
THESE AREAS. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG ISSUES.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
AVIATION...
HEALTHY SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF KAMA HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW-ENHANCED SURFACE TROF. OUTFLOW FROM THESE
STORMS EXPECTED TO CAUSE EASTERLY SURFACE WIND AT KAMA. WILL MONITOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVLEPMENT CLOSELY...AND BE READY TO AMEND IF
THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN TO IMPACT KAMA TERMINAL DIRECTLY.
OTHERWISE...MOIST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND 06Z THURSDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AROUND 16Z
THURSDAY WHEN CEILINGS LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...CLOUD BASES EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO VFR
RANGE AT KDHT AND KGUY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE AT
KAMA AS SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...AND RETURNING CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST. COMPACT MID/UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CIRCULATION. TO THE WEST...OTHER THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CO. HAVE SEEN ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AND ALSO ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. MID/UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OK TONIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA
THIS EVENING. STEERING FLOW IS STILL WEAK...SO SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT. HUNG ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING GIVEN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK
CAPPING IN PLACE ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY LOWER THAN IN THE
EAST AND NORTHWEST GIVEN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING ASIDE
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST LAPS AND RAP ANALYSIS DATA SHOW MLCAPES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 1000-2500 J/KG RANGE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHWEST. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/20-30 KTS/ IS ALSO IN THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE
STRONGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF COMPACT UPPER LOW. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IF STORMS MAKE
IT IN...WHILE WEAKER SHEAR WILL KEEP STORMS MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY
ACROSS THE EAST BUT THEY COULD BE STRONG OR BRIEFLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS OVER AN INCH WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. LATE
TONIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A 20-30 KT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
LLJ. ALSO MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DUE TO MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT VSBYS FROM
FALLING REAL LOW.
THE COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS INITIATE IN SOUTHERN CO/NORTHEAST
NM DURING THE AFTERNOON EITHER ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IF THEY DO...CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
UPPER LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING
TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR ONE MORE DAY
THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE REMAINING OVER EASTERN NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...BELIEVE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO
ANY CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO REBOUND...WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...INDUCING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN
RESPONSE...WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
OFF THIS WEEKEND...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SILENT POPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE EXPANDING AREA WIDE BY
TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND MID
/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACTIVITY.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE 30 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES AND SUNDAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EAST BEHIND
THE DRYLINE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
DURING THIS TIME...SO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE FUELS ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...RECENT
RAINFALL AND EFFECT ON FUELS SHOULD MITIGATE THESE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT.
KB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
220 PM PDT Thu Jun 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Another low pressure system will impact the Inland Northwest
through Saturday. This will lead to unsettled, showery and
occasionally wet periods through Saturday night. Sunday will be a
marginally drier day in Washington...with wet conditions
persisting in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures will be well below
normal. Temperatures will temporarily warm to seasonal levels for
the beginning of the work week...but unsettled weather will likely
return by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...Some changes in how the wet frontal zone approaches and
exits are hinted at in some of recent short term models for
tonight. The 17Z HRRR Composite reflectivity progs depict a split
in the wet precipitation shield as it reaches the Spokane area but
hints at some convection developing along the leading edge of
northern edge of the split which builds northward and back-builds
to the west. This chance in the scenario may just be too complex
to come up with chronologic sequence of pops to mimic it so may
just likely keep what is currently depicted in the grids for
tonight which includes minor thunderstorm mention as well.
Forecast temps remain low for this time of year given the general
low pressure trof has not left the region. /Pelatti
Friday through Sunday...A synoptic repeat of the last two days
appears to be shaping up for the next two days as satellite
imagery indicates another upper low circulation just off the
Pacific Coast getting ready to take up residence over the region.
All of the latest synoptic models are in general agreement and
quite plausible against satellite extrapolation in slowly dragging
the upper low into the forecast area on Friday....drifting it
through on a slow transit west to east and finally into Montana on
Sunday. There are significant sub-synoptic differences between
models regarding wrap-around moisture axes and instability
parameters...but overall all models indicate widespread showery
precipitation for just about all of the forecast area through
Saturday...and then a drying trend from west to east on
Sunday...with all models maintaining a strong likelihood of
lingering showers through Sunday over the Idaho Panhandle as
trailing moisture upslopes into the Bitterroots.
Two main differences exist between this system and the one that
dumped mountain snow and heavy rain on the area yesterday.
First...the snow levels will be somewhat higher. Mountain snow is
a near certainty again with this system...but it will only
accumulate on the higher peaks. Second...while the moisture feed
into this system is quite moist and adequate for significant rain
fall...the moisture tap will be off the Pacific and any wrap
around will have to circumnavigate the entire low and thus be
attenuated somewhat before being residually squeezed out by
Saturday and Sunday. Yesterday`s upper low wrap around was
partially fueled by Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico basin semi-tropical
moisture...which contributed to the anomalously high rain fall
amounts over much of the northeast forecast area. Thus...while
showers will be common over the next 2 days...and there will
likely be periods of downright steady stratiform sustained rain...
the overall amounts should be less impressive and have less impact
on area rivers and streams than the last system. Temperatures
through out this period will continue to underachieve climatology.
/Fugazzi
Sunday night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will start the
week out with a brief dry period between systems. The region will be
under an upper level ridge with one low pressure system moving into
the Canadian Prairies and another spinning in the Gulf of Alaska.
While the core of the upper low remains off the northern British
Columbia coast, a line of weak impulses will roll through the region
on moist northwest flow. The first frontal system will affect the
region Monday night into Tuesday. This system is rather weak so just
some breezy conditions and scattered showers is expected with the
cold front. Another weak impulse is expected Wednesday with another
cold frontal passage Wednesday night. This one could bring a bit
more in the way of gusty winds. A few thunderstorms could develop
along the front, but confidence is low at this time. The prevailing
wind direction will be westerly with showers more focused on the
higher terrain surrounding the Columbia Basin. This line of storms
will have a pretty good tap into a deep Pacific moisture plume so
the possibility of significant rainfall with either of the frontal
systems cannot be discounted. The better chance of locally heavy
rain will be with the stronger mid-week cold front, particularly if
thunderstorms develop along the front. Temperatures will warm close
to seasonal normals Monday with the building ridge, and may continue
into Tuesday before a cooling trend takes over with the shift to
northwest flow. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front running from KSEA to KDLS at 18Z will move
to KCQV to KLWS by 00Z and then pass into Montana overnight. Ahead
of and along the front widespread -RA is expected with mainly low
VFR ceilings but brief periods of MVFR Ceilings also possible
especially at the KGEG/KCOE and KPUW TAF sites. After the FROPA
the air mass will destabilize aloft leading to a small potential
for TSRA in the late afternoon in the west...and overnight over the
northeast. The chance of a thunderstorm passing through any
particular TAF site is small...so the thunder wording has been
left out of the TAFs. By 12Z a new upper level low will be moving
into the area with no organized fronts but a general decrease in
stability leading to a threat of random showers over the entire
region after 18Z Friday. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 59 40 55 42 64 / 80 50 50 60 50 20
Coeur d`Alene 44 60 40 52 43 58 / 80 50 50 60 60 30
Pullman 43 56 38 51 41 61 / 70 40 50 60 60 30
Lewiston 45 60 43 60 46 69 / 60 40 40 60 50 30
Colville 45 61 41 58 44 69 / 70 50 60 60 50 30
Sandpoint 45 60 39 52 43 57 / 80 60 70 70 60 60
Kellogg 43 57 40 47 42 53 / 80 70 70 80 70 70
Moses Lake 45 64 45 63 46 74 / 50 30 40 20 10 10
Wenatchee 46 62 46 59 45 72 / 30 50 40 20 10 10
Omak 45 61 45 63 44 76 / 60 60 50 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
758 AM PDT Thu Jun 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A closed low will impact the Pacific Northwest through Saturday.
This will lead to unsettled, showery and occasionally wet periods
through Saturday night. Temperatures will be well below normal.
Temperatures will temporarily warm to seasonal levels for the
beginning of the work week...but unsettled weather will likely
return by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast seems to handle timing of precipitation and
thunderstorms quite well but will use the 11Z run of the HRRR to
fine tune the onset of precipitation which includes a shield of
stable rainfall currently crossing the Cascades along with the
development of some thunderstorms developing behind it. HRRR
suggests pulse variety thunderstorms starting in the East Slopes
North Cascades vicinity near 21z then moving with a storm motion
to the northeast at 35 MPH so the thunder mention gets spread east
with time and should decrease in intensity near 6Z but may not end
until 12Z Friday. KOTX 12Z sounding temperature profile not very
useful to assess convection potential other than to note that the
winds do impressively increase with height and the low level
inversion below 950mb should go away in the next few hours and
this should allow most of this mornings low clouds and fog to
dissipate. May issue a morning update if any of the above thinking
leads me to. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: There is some threat of patchy fog around the KGEG, KSFF,
KCOE TAFs sites, given the clearing skies and cool temperatures
combined with the recent precipitation. Look for clouds to increase
and thicken this morning, with rain developing after 15-18z from the
west, reaching the ID border toward 23-01Z this evening. Expect some
breezy conditions as well, with gusts up to 20 kts in the late
morning/early afternoon. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
localized MVFR cigs are possible in showers.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 65 43 59 41 56 43 / 50 80 50 50 60 50
Coeur d`Alene 67 45 60 43 54 44 / 40 80 50 50 60 60
Pullman 65 44 56 38 54 41 / 30 70 50 50 60 60
Lewiston 73 47 62 47 62 47 / 20 60 40 40 60 50
Colville 66 47 61 45 58 46 / 60 70 60 60 60 50
Sandpoint 66 45 59 42 53 42 / 30 80 70 70 70 60
Kellogg 66 42 56 41 49 43 / 20 80 70 70 80 70
Moses Lake 65 46 65 46 67 48 / 60 50 30 40 20 10
Wenatchee 61 47 63 48 65 49 / 80 30 30 40 10 10
Omak 61 45 64 43 64 46 / 70 60 60 50 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
AT 3 AM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
FERGUS FALLS MINNESOTA SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO FORT DODGE IOWA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED A 53 MPH WIND GUST AT HANLEY FALLS
MINNESOTA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH 900-800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BOTH THE
MESO AND BROADER SCALE MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
CONVECTION AND THEY SHOW THAT BOTH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER AREA SHOWERS WAS DETECTED BY RADAR FURTHER EAST FROM BIG
FORK MINNESOTA EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE TWIN CITIES. THERE HAS BEEN
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION REPORTED WITH THIS SCATTERED BAND OF
CONVECTION. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE 800-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE WEAKENING THIS MORNING. DUE TO THIS...KEPT
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. FURTHER
EAST...THERE IS ONE MORE AREA OF SHOWERS BETWEEN RICE LAKE AND
MONDOVI WISCONSIN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 700-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE FORCING QUICKLY WANES BY 07.12Z.
FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT THE 500 MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MUCH OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WISCONSIN. BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND GFS RAISE
THE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER WITH THE FLOW COMING OFF
THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF IOWA AND MISSOURI...THESE
DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH. THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE THEIR DEW
POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AT MOST. THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE
REALISTIC. AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE AND ML CAPES ARE ALSO TOO
HIGH. AS A RESULT...PREFER THE MUCH FURTHER NORTH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAT THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW. IF THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN
TO DEVELOP...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THEM TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ON SATURDAY...THE DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK TOO HIGH...SO USED
THE GFE MIX DOWN TOOL TO LOWER THEM DOWN TO AROUND 60. THIS MAY BE
EVEN STILL A BIT TOO HIGH. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP OUR
HEAT INDICES PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
THE 07.00Z MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WHILE ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
EVENING. THEY DIFFER ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM DO NOT HAVE THIS FRONT MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEY ARE ALSO MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH
THEIR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS LESS
PRECIPITATION AND IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT.
CONSIDERING THE SPEED OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
ECMWF SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IT
APPEARS THAT GFS IS ONCE AGAIN TOO HIGH WITH ITS DEW POINTS...SO
WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF ON THAT TOO. WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS...THE ML CAPES STAY UNDER UNDER 1000 J/KG...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10
KFT RIDING PERIPHERY OF THE PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE AFTERNOON CU FIELD BEGINNING TO POP UP ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PLUME OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. MEAN FLOW VECTORS WOULD PUSH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...AND COULD BRING MVFR CEILNGS...BUT WITH DRIER
AIR IN PLACE ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION IMPACTING TERMINALS SO HAVE LEFT
OUT OF TAFS. FOR FRIDAY...STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD
DAYTIME MIXING UP TO 850 MB WILL LEAD TO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
GUSTS AT KRST TO AROUND 20 KTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
632 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
AT 3 AM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
FERGUS FALLS MINNESOTA SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO FORT DODGE IOWA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED A 53 MPH WIND GUST AT HANLEY FALLS
MINNESOTA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH 900-800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BOTH THE
MESO AND BROADER SCALE MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
CONVECTION AND THEY SHOW THAT BOTH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER AREA SHOWERS WAS DETECTED BY RADAR FURTHER EAST FROM BIG
FORK MINNESOTA EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE TWIN CITIES. THERE HAS BEEN
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION REPORTED WITH THIS SCATTERED BAND OF
CONVECTION. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE 800-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE WEAKENING THIS MORNING. DUE TO THIS...KEPT
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. FURTHER
EAST...THERE IS ONE MORE AREA OF SHOWERS BETWEEN RICE LAKE AND
MONDOVI WISCONSIN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 700-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE FORCING QUICKLY WANES BY 07.12Z.
FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT THE 500 MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MUCH OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WISCONSIN. BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND GFS RAISE
THE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER WITH THE FLOW COMING OFF
THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF IOWA AND MISSOURI...THESE
DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH. THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE THEIR DEW
POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AT MOST. THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE
REALISTIC. AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE AND ML CAPES ARE ALSO TOO
HIGH. AS A RESULT...PREFER THE MUCH FURTHER NORTH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAT THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW. IF THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN
TO DEVELOP...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THEM TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ON SATURDAY...THE DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK TOO HIGH...SO USED
THE GFE MIX DOWN TOOL TO LOWER THEM DOWN TO AROUND 60. THIS MAY BE
EVEN STILL A BIT TOO HIGH. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP OUR
HEAT INDICES PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
THE 07.00Z MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WHILE ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
EVENING. THEY DIFFER ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM DO NOT HAVE THIS FRONT MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEY ARE ALSO MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH
THEIR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS LESS
PRECIPITATION AND IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT.
CONSIDERING THE SPEED OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
ECMWF SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IT
APPEARS THAT GFS IS ONCE AGAIN TOO HIGH WITH ITS DEW POINTS...SO
WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF ON THAT TOO. WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS...THE ML CAPES STAY UNDER UNDER 1000 J/KG...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
632 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. EXPECT
ANY CEILINGS TO BE VFR. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS WELL WEST
OF THE AREA ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THIS IS WHERE
MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
354 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
AT 3 AM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
FERGUS FALLS MINNESOTA SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO FORT DODGE IOWA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED A 53 MPH WIND GUST AT HANLEY FALLS
MINNESOTA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH 900-800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BOTH THE
MESO AND BROADER SCALE MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
CONVECTION AND THEY SHOW THAT BOTH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER AREA SHOWERS WAS DETECTED BY RADAR FURTHER EAST FROM BIG
FORK MINNESOTA EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE TWIN CITIES. THERE HAS BEEN
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION REPORTED WITH THIS SCATTERED BAND OF
CONVECTION. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE 800-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE WEAKENING THIS MORNING. DUE TO THIS...KEPT
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. FURTHER
EAST...THERE IS ONE MORE AREA OF SHOWERS BETWEEN RICE LAKE AND
MONDOVI WISCONSIN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 700-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE FORCING QUICKLY WANES BY 07.12Z.
FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT THE 500 MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MUCH OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WISCONSIN. BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND GFS RAISE
THE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER WITH THE FLOW COMING OFF
THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF IOWA AND MISSOURI...THESE
DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH. THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE THEIR DEW
POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AT MOST. THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE
REALISTIC. AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE AND ML CAPES ARE ALSO TOO
HIGH. AS A RESULT...PREFER THE MUCH FURTHER NORTH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAT THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW. IF THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN
TO DEVELOP...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THEM TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ON SATURDAY...THE DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK TOO HIGH...SO USED
THE GFE MIX DOWN TOOL TO LOWER THEM DOWN TO AROUND 60. THIS MAY BE
EVEN STILL A BIT TOO HIGH. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP OUR
HEAT INDICES PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
THE 07.00Z MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WHILE ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
EVENING. THEY DIFFER ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM DO NOT HAVE THIS FRONT MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEY ARE ALSO MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH
THEIR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS LESS
PRECIPITATION AND IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT.
CONSIDERING THE SPEED OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
ECMWF SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IT
APPEARS THAT GFS IS ONCE AGAIN TOO HIGH WITH ITS DEW POINTS...SO
WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF ON THAT TOO. WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS...THE ML CAPES STAY UNDER UNDER 1000 J/KG...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1140 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
THE FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES CONTINUES TO BE WITH ANY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
STREAMING DOWN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA...BUT MAINLY WEST
OF RST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...SO IF ANY SHOWERS DO
MANAGE TO OCCUR AT RST AND SKIES CLEAR OUT BEHIND IT THEN SOME FOG
COULD ALSO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THINK THAT THIS IS A LOW ENOUGH OF A
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SKIRT THE TAF SITES TOMORROW AS WELL
THOUGH RST WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE DESPITE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY BEING OFF TO THE WEST. A CU FIELD WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1129 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB. S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AT KALS BETWEEN ABOUT
15Z AND 17Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO BE WINDY THRU THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KTS. S TO SW WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB BY 17-19Z WITH AT 15-20KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
..SMALL PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...
STILL SOME MODERATE FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH SEEM TO BE LACKING ANY
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES TODAY TO HELP FIRE OFF CONVECTION. SFC PRESSURE
FALLS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL OFF INTO
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHILE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. 16Z HRRR
MIXES DRY LINE EASTWARD TO ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIM TO LA JUNTA
BY 00Z WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE...AND ELEVATED HEATING
ALONG THE RIDGE OF OF THE RATON MESA TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH
THE POOLING DEW POINTS EAST OF THE DRY LINE...COULD SEE CAPES
1500-2000+ J/KG...WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. EACH
SUCCESSIVE HRRR RUN SEEMS TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NRN
SLOPES OF THE RATON...EASTWARD ACROSS BACA...BENT...PROWERS...AND
KIOWA COUNTIES AFTER 21Z. WITH SUCH HIGH CAPE VALUES...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEARS STILL RUNNING AROUND 30-40 KTS...THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EAST OF THE DRY LINE.
SPC HAS A 5% PROB FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED GIVEN LACK OF STRONG FORCING
ALOFT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 03Z. AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND WINDY DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A CALL AROUND TO FIRE DISTRICTS OUT WEST
INDICATES THAT DRYING FUELS SHOULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY BY TOMORROW. WITH FLOW ALOFT INCREASING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND INTO WRN MT
SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SPREADING DOWN THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION
TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND FREMONT COUNTY...AND WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
ISSUANCE. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE...THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE CRITICAL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
MANY AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAD RAIN IN THE RECENT DAYS...BUT SOME
MISSED OUT...AND FINER FUELS MAY BE CRITICALLY DRY IN THESE PATCHY
AREAS. HOWEVER...FUELS ACROSS FIRE ZONES 232...233 (EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND OTERO COUNTIES)...WHICH ALSO MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE SOLID REPORTS OF SUFFICIENT
GREEN UP TO OFFSET ANY CURING FUELS...SO HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON
THESE REPORTS FOR OTHER AREAS SUCH AS PUEBLO COUNTY...AND PORTIONS
OF CROWLEY COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THUS RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. STILL
SUFFICIENT GREEN UP FROM SNOW MELT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL...SO THOSE WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A NICE SUMMER-LIKE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND 60S AND 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. -KT
LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WYOMING AND
MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DRY WITH DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE
30S. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
MINIMAL. ONLY HAVE ISOLATED POPS OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE MODELS SUGGEST VERY MODEST CAPE VALUES
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN THE EVENING...SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FIRE SOME
CONVECTION...AND MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS. AIR ALOFT WILL BE DRY AND DECIDED NOT TO ADD ANY POPS TO
THE MOUNTAINS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 18Z NAM IS A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. MODELS KEEP THE HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. ONLY HAVE ISOLATED POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF CAPE. AIR ALOFT REMAINS DRY AND DID NOT ADD ANY POPS TO THE
REMAINING MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...RETURN FLOW MAY BRING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STARTING WEDNESDAY...TROUGH STARTS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. A
LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TOUGH TO FORECAST THESE SUBTLE FEATURES
IN DAYS 4 TO 7...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT.
--PGW--
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH GUSTY SOUTH WIND IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED
TCU POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF KPUB...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KCOS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING INTO KCOS AND KALS DURING
THE LATE MORNING...AND BY 18-19Z AT KPUB. GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ221-222-
224-225.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
359 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT...ALLOWING FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO RETURN
TO THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT...LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A BATCH OF
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY UPSTREAM
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY...AIDED BY A
WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY AT 500 HPA...WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ALONG A STALLED OUT SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE
BEST FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...TOWARDS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND PERHAPS INTO NW CT. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE...RADAR TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST BETTER TIMING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WOULD BE LATER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN...WHICH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH AS WELL. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS STARTING IN THE
MORNING...AND A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY POPS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA FOR THE AFTN HOURS. FAR NORTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS THE
DACKS...SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY FOR ONLY
ISOLD SHOWERS TODAY.
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST RIBBON OF
INSTABILITY TODAY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN NY TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL
PA AND NJ. WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HEADED TOWARDS
OUR AREA THIS MORNING...AND FORECASTED SHOWALTER VALUES TO ONLY
DROP TO AS LOW AS +2 C...THIS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH THUNDER FROM
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST...BUT IT DOESN/T LOOK TOO WIDESPREAD...AND ANY STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TODAY.
HAVE GONE WITH A MET/MAV BLEND FOR TEMPS TODAY...WITH 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING. WILL LOWER POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TAKE PLACE...AND A COOL NIGHT WILL OCCUR
FOR THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
RANGE FROM THE 40S IN NORTHERN AREAS...TO MID TO UPPER 50S IN
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO LIFT AS A WARM
FRONT ON SUNDAY...AS WEAK FLOW FROM THE SURFACE-850 HPA FROM THE
W-SW STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN THE DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS WARMING TO 12-16 DEGREES C...WARMER MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY...WITH 80S ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL START TO
CREEP UP...BUT IT WON/T BECOME TOO UNBEARABLE JUST YET...WITH TDS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F.
A NARROW AREA OF STRONG RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS/HIGHER
HEIGHTS ALOFT...THIS SHOULD PUT A CAP IN PLACE...AND PREVENT ANY CONVECTION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE S-SE SURFACE FLOW...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ENOUGH MOISTURE COMES OFF THE ATLANTIC TO
ALLOW A MARINE LAYER TO SNEAK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FOR
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ON MONDAY LOOK PRETTY WARM...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL REACH THE
MID 60S IN SOME AREAS AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR A MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
DAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR WESTERN AREAS...IN
CASE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA...AS THE
RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MON NIGHT MIN TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA...WITH MUGGY TDS
CONTINUING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER JAMES BAY LOW AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO INTERACT AND MERGE OVER JAMES BAY REGION
DURING THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL EXIT FURTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING A TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
MERGES OVER JAMES BAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY FOR THE CWFA TUESDAY. WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH CHANCE
POPS AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. QUESTION
REMAINS JUST HOW FAR TO THE EAST THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS AS THE
GGEM/GFS REMAIN THE SLOWEST WITH A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FAVORS A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS SO WE WILL RETAIN AN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEYOND TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AND AWAIT FOR FUTURE TRENDS AND CONFIDENCE.
THEREAFTER...WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR NOW AND TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE LACK OF THERMALLY ADVECTIVE CHANGES SEEN IN THE
ENSEMBLES THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30KTS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TRACKED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR FOG FORMATION WHERE THE RAIN HAS OCCURRED FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AS WE WILL MONITOR
TRENDS CLOSELY. OTHERWISE...A MIXTURE OF SCT-BKN MID LEVEL AC DECK
ACROSS THE REGION AS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS UPSTREAM OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WAS UNDERWAY
ACROSS NORTHERN-LOWER MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF LOWER ONTARIO.
LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND HOURLY RAP SUGGEST THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY KPOU WHERE WE WILL PLACE A DOMINANT SHRA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES...WE WILL PLACE A VCSH UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE SEEN.
WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT SPEEDS
LESS THAN 5KTS AND VARIABLE DIRECTION. THE DIRECTION BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NT...VFR...CHC MVFR WITH MIST/MIFG.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA. CHC EARLY AM MVFR/IFR
WITH FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX. CHC LATE NT/EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
TUE...VFR/MVFR...INCR CHC SHRA/TSRA. LATE NT/EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY...ESP FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 4-8
MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE BEST FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL ONLY BE UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WHICH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH A
FEW SPOTS MAY LOCALLY RECEIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. FINALLY...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS HAVE DIMINISHED OR
PUSHED EAST OF MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER FOR THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VT/NORTHERN LITCHFIELD FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES LOOK MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
EASTERN AREAS...AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING IMPULSE. WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ALONG WITH YESTERDAY/S
RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN AREAS...THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. MIN TEMPS
STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
SRN DACKS TO THE MID 50S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SET UP TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. 12Z GFS SUGGESTS A MCS TYPE SYSTEM
WILL FORM TONIGHT AND RIPPLE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DYING OUT. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MORE STRATIFORM
LIKE PCPN OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...
DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST...THEN
DECREASING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH ON SUNDAY SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
TSTMS.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON-MON NT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS APPROACHING 588 DM. HOWEVER...IT IS A NARROW SPIKEY RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH HIGH IS POSITIONED OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SO...DESPITE
WHAT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY...THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF A MARINE LAYER ADVECTING INTO REGION WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS. WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
THINGS...WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED IN VALLEYS FOR MAXES...AND 70S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT
MAXES MAY BE COOLER...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. FOR MON NT MINS...EXPECT 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ON TUESDAY A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BRINGING MAINLY
INCREASING CLOUDS. GFS HOLDS OFF PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
TUE NIGHT-THU...MODELS INDICATE A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
SHOULD BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS TO THE REGION...MOST LIKELY
TUE NT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY.
IT SHOULD BE RATHER HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT MAX TEMPS WED/THU...GENERALLY REACHING THE 70S...AFTER
REACHING THE LOWER 80S ON TUE. EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT/WED
NT...GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS VALLEY REGIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THU/FRI...BOTH 12Z GFS AND 12Z EURO DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN AND KEEPS COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AS SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30KTS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TRACKED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR FOG FORMATION WHERE THE RAIN HAS OCCURRED FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AS WE WILL MONITOR
TRENDS CLOSELY. OTHERWISE...A MIXTURE OF SCT-BKN MID LEVEL AC DECK
ACROSS THE REGION AS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS UPSTREAM OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WAS UNDERWAY
ACROSS NORTHERN-LOWER MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF LOWER ONTARIO.
LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND HOURLY RAP SUGGEST THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY KPOU WHERE WE WILL PLACE A DOMINANT SHRA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES...WE WILL PLACE A VCSH UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE SEEN.
WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT SPEEDS
LESS THAN 5KTS AND VARIABLE DIRECTION. THE DIRECTION BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NT...VFR...CHC MVFR WITH MIST/MIFG.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA. CHC EARLY AM MVFR/IFR
WITH FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX. CHC LATE NT/EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
TUE...VFR/MVFR...INCR CHC SHRA/TSRA. LATE NT/EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
EVENING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
FINALLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WHILE BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER HALF AN INCH. LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/GJM/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A VERY WEAK
COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND
PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE TO A WASHINGTON DC
OCEAN CITY MARYLAND LINE SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH AND SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WX OCNL CIRRUS EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN THE NAM MODELED MID
DECK SLIDING SEWD THRU N PA WILL ARRIVE IN PTNS OF E PA BETWEEN
09Z-11Z. THE NAM AT 06Z WAS DOING A BETTER JOB WITH THIS MID DECK
CLOUD THAN THE GFS.
THE MID DECK OVERSPREADS MUCH OF PA AND N 3/4 OF NJ BY 15Z THEN
MAY START THINNING MIDDAY.
03Z HRRR HAS SPRINKLES MODELED INTO FAR NNJ AROUND 12Z.
LIGHT WIND BECOMES W 10-15 KTS LATE THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
NW FLOW WAA CONVECTIVE EVENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN OR EVENING.
PLS SEE SWODAY1 AND ANY SWOMCD`S ETC AS WELL AS OUR DISCUSSIONS
REGARDING SVR WX POTENTIAL IN OUR FCST AREA.
BL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE ON THE SHY SIDE WITH MODELED SFC
TDS IN THE 50S AND THE ASSOCIATED ML CAPE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 600J.
NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
MAX TEMPS IN SE PA ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S...
NEAR 90 IN FAR S NJ...MUCH OF DE AND MD WHERE MORE SUN.
GUSTY W-WNW 15-20 KT SFC FLOW INITIALLY ACTS TO DRY AND PREVENT
TSTMS BUT EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CAPE...UP TO 600J ML CAPE
BY 22Z AHD OF A SWD SAGGING COOL FRONT WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
STRONG TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY. CIN COULD BE A HINDRANCE AND BOTH
12Z/8 AND OOZ/9 UK WERE DRY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. 00Z/9 GFS
SVR RISK: SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS IS
INDICATED AS WELL AS TT 48-50 WITH KI 32-36 WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ROLLING SEWD 25-30 KT SRN NYS THRU NE PA AND
N NJ DURING THE LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING. FAIR AMT OF 0-3KM SHEAR
AS WELL NE PA AND NNJ. THE QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH CONVECTION.
GFS HAS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTION DOWN PHL NRN SUBURBS
TO ALMOST KACY THIS EVENING.
A SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TWD DAWN SUNDAY BUT PROBABLY
RESTRICTED TO ONLY NNJ OR NE 1/2 NJ.
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS WERE ALL 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/9 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE. SKY WAS 50 50 BLENDED GFS MOSGUIDE AND NAM RH...WHICH
LOOKS PRETTY COMPARABLE TO THE 00Z/9 UK/ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS/SKY IS ABV AVG...BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE ON POPS.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SREF HAVE POPS 20 PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE
FCST FOR PA AND NJ LATE TODAY BUT I TRIMMED TO 45 PCT MAX DUE TO
MY CONCERNS ABOUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND RATHER DRY CANADIAN/UK
MODELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL MEAN SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THERE IS A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE WHEN SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE USHERED IN ON NW UPPER
FLOW ALOFT. WE HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CHC POPS ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND
NRN NJ FOR NOW WITH SLGT CHC POPS SOUTH OF THIS ACROSS THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND ERN NJ. TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH SUN LIKELY THE WARMER DAY. HIGHS ON MON
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BE OFF THE COAST TUE. MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SLIGHT TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL ROUND OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING WEATHER SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEKS...WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DAILY (MOSTLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING). CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MOST OF THE
DAYS...THE BEST CHC ARE TIED TO WHEN THE BEST SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
ARRIVES...AND MODELS DO POORLY RESOLVING THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME. GENERALLY A CONTINUITY FCST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HELP
PRODUCE A CLEANER LOOKING MAP WHEN LOOKING AT NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
HIGHS TUE-FRI WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S (SOUTH) AND UPPER 50S T0 MID 60S (NORTH).
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. CIRRUS. SCT-BKN DECK OF AC AOA 8000 FT WILL DEVELOP
SEWD AND ARRIVE BETWEEN 09Z-11Z IN E PA. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. CIGS AOA 8000 FT IN THE MORNING SHOULD THIN MIDDAY
AND PERMIT SCT-BKN NEAR 6000-7000 FT IN THE AFTN. CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
MVFR COND SHOWER OR TSTM IN KRDG/KABE REGION BETWEEN 21Z-23Z SPREADING
SEWD TO KTTN/KPNE/KACY AREA 23Z-02Z. IF TSTMS DEVELOP...MAY SEE ISOLATED
NNW SFC GUST 30-35 KTS.
KPHL-KMIV LOOKS TO BE ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE TSTM RISK.
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER 03Z...VFR WITH PATCHY CIGS AOA 6000 FT. LOW
PROB OF A SHOWER WITH TSTMS ON THE WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING DRIVER
FADES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD
BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR WATERS.
WEST WINDS ARE FCST TODAY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... MAINLY NEARSHORE. SEABREEZES POSSIBLE NNJ COAST LATE
TODAY. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED. POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTM
LATE THIS AFTN OR EVE MAY PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND A NNW
WIND GUST 30-35 KTS...MAINLY NNJ WATERS BUT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
EVEN DOWN TO KACY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
DURING THE MID-WEEK MAY BRING NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY WED. LOW
CONFID IN THIS ATTM.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG
MARINE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
253 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A VERY WEAK
COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND
PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE TO A WASHINGTON DC
OCEAN CITY MARYLAND LINE SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH AND SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
FAIR WX OCNL CIRRUS EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN THE NAM MODELED MID
DECK SLIDING SEWD THRU N PA WILL ARRIVE IN PTNS OF E PA BETWEEN
09Z-11Z. THE NAM AT 06Z WAS DOING A BETTER JOB WITH THIS MID DECK
CLOUD THAN THE GFS.
THE MID DECK OVERSPREADS MUCH OF PA AND N 3/4 OF NJ BY 15Z THEN
MAY START THINNING MIDDAY.
03Z HRRR HAS SPRINKLES MODELED INTO FAR NNJ AROUND 12Z.
LIGHT WIND BECOMES W 10-15 KTS LATE THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
NW FLOW WAA CONVECTIVE EVENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN OR EVENING.
PLS SEE SWODAY1 AND ANY SWOMCD`S ETC AS WELL AS OUR DISCUSSIONS
REGARDING SVR WX POTENTIAL IN OUR FCST AREA.
BL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE ON THE SHY SIDE WITH MODELED SFC
TDS IN THE 50S AND THE ASSOCIATED ML CAPE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 600J.
NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
MAX TEMPS IN SE PA ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S...
NEAR 90 IN FAR S NJ...MUCH OF DE AND MD WHERE MORE SUN.
GUSTY W-WNW 15-20 KT SFC FLOW INITIALLY ACTS TO DRY AND PREVENT
TSTMS BUT EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CAPE...UP TO 600J ML CAPE
BY 22Z AHD OF A SWD SAGGING COOL FRONT WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
STRONG TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY. CIN COULD BE A HINDRANCE AND BOTH
12Z/8 AND OOZ/9 UK WERE DRY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. 00Z/9 GFS
SVR RISK: SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS IS
INDICATED AS WELL AS TT 48-50 WITH KI 32-36 WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ROLLING SEWD 25-30 KT SRN NYS THRU NE PA AND
N NJ DURING THE LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING. FAIR AMT OF 0-3KM SHEAR
AS WELL NE PA AND NNJ. THE QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH CONVECTION.
GFS HAS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTION DOWN PHL NRN SUBURBS
TO ALMOST KACY THIS EVENING.
A SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TWD DAWN SUNDAY BUT PROBABLY
RESTRICTED TO ONLY NNJ OR NE 1/2 NJ.
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS WERE ALL 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/9 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE. SKY WAS 50 50 BLENDED GFS MOSGUIDE AND NAM RH...WHICH
LOOKS PRETTY COMPARABLE TO THE 00Z/9 UK/ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS/SKY IS ABV AVG...BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE ON POPS.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SREF HAVE POPS 20 PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE
FCST FOR PA AND NJ LATE TODAY BUT I TRIMMED TO 45 PCT MAX DUE TO
MY CONCERNS ABOUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND RATHER DRY CANADIAN/UK
MODELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL FEATURES WILL IMPACT THE WX DURG THE EXTENDD PD.
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AND EXPECT A
HOT AND GENLY DRY DAY FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
WITH THESE KIND OF DAYS IN THE SUMMER, SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT ATTM THERE ARE NO SIG FEATURES MOVG ACRS
TO ACT AS A FOCUS OF CONVECTION, SO OVERALL POPS SHOULD BE LOW.
THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY
AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A STRONG CDFNT EXTEND SWD ACRS THE
MIDWEST FROM A LOW NR HUDSON BAY WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY EWD. THIS
CDFNT WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT ON TUESDAY
AND POPS WILL RISE THRU THE DAY AS WELL. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PD ATTM WITH THE FROPA AND PSBLY
A LOW FORMING ALG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURG THE TUE/WED
TIME FRAME AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO FURTHER DO SO IN SUBSEQUENT
FCSTS.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE,
BUT THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING TROUGHINESS AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT FOR SOME MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. CIRRUS. SCT-BKN DECK OF AC AOA 8000 FT WILL DEVELOP
SEWD AND ARRIVE BETWEEN 09Z-11Z IN E PA. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. CIGS AOA 8000 FT IN THE MORNING SHOULD THIN MIDDAY
AND PERMIT SCT-BKN NEAR 6000-7000 FT IN THE AFTN. CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
MVFR COND SHOWER OR TSTM IN KRDG/KABE REGION BETWEEN 21Z-23Z SPREADING
SEWD TO KTTN/KPNE/KACY AREA 23Z-02Z. IF TSTMS DEVELOP...MAY SEE ISOLATED
NNW SFC GUST 30-35 KTS.
KPHL-KMIV LOOKS TO BE ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE TSTM RISK.
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER 03Z...VFR WITH PATCHY CIGS AOA 6000 FT. LOW
PROB OF A SHOWER WITH TSTMS ON THE WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING DRIVER
FADES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. OVERALL
POPS ARE LOW.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS TO OCCUR AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY WEST OF KPHL, IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS DURG THE EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TUESDAY NIGHT AS
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
SOME RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR WATERS.
WEST WINDS ARE FCST TODAY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... MAINLY NEARSHORE. SEABREEZES POSSIBLE NNJ COAST LATE
TODAY. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED. POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTM
LATE THIS AFTN OR EVE MAY PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND A NNW
WIND GUST 30-35 KTS...MAINLY NNJ WATERS BUT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
EVEN DOWN TO KACY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT THE START OF THE
PD AND EXPECT SUB ADVISORY CONDS THRU ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN E TO
SELY AND EVENTUALLY SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ASA CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE MIDWEST. BY LATER TUE OR WED SEAS WILL RESPOND AND AT
SOME POINT DUR THIS TIME FRAME SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1240 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CREATING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...KEPT TSTMS IN THE FCST LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. LTG DETECTION
SHOWING STRIKES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ADDED FOG EVERYWHERE
THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. QPF WAS ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST BUCKETS
AND BLENDING IN THE GEM AND GFS WHICH SUPPORTS 2 AREAS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH AND EXTREME EASTERN AREAS.
PREV DISC: CONVECTION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. NEW RUC HAS CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BUT CAPE REMAINS SKINNY. SHEAR NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE SO STILL EXPECTING THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LOW BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FREEZING LEVEL ONLY
AROUND 8K, SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. HRRR AND RUC MODEL INDICATE THIS
FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BUT
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW
OVER 1 INCH SO POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN
ANY STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. BASIN
AVERAGES APPEARS TO BE AROUND .25 ACROSS DOWNEAST WITH OVER HALF
OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BUT AGAIN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY
DOWNPOURS.
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS BORDERING NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY DAYS AND
CLEAR MILD NIGHT NIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY. HIGH ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND THEN MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST ON TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE
LATER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS BUT LOWER IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS ACROSS
DOWNEAST BETWEEN 07-12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, FOG WILL KEEP VSBY BELOW 1 NM TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KHW
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/KHW
MARINE...HEWITT/KHW/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
1139 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
STARTING TO FINALLY SEE STORMS GAINING A LITTLE MORE MOMENTUM AND
COVERAGE ALONG INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET. HAVE HAD
THREE LOW-END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR AND EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THEN BE MORE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS MAXIMIZED
NW-SE OVER NE MONTANA. 850 MB JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND HELP TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND TRACK NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NOISY NIGHT FOR THE
AREA...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED FORECAST EARLIER
THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NECESSARY. MOYER
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS CLOSED UPPER
LOW/STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC-NW...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INTO MONTANA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON...THEN REACHES OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...MEETING UP WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS...
ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP SUGGEST STORM INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST. SO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE MAINLY
AFTER 00Z. THE STRONGEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF AROUND 2600 J/KG
REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF AROUND -7C ARE INDICATED IN THE SAME AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT...DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50KTS. INVERTED
V-SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
WITH ANY STORM. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF TOWARD THE NORTH. WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELECTED WITH THE
COORDINATION OF SPC TO TO A SPECIAL SOUNDING AROUND 20Z. SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH SEVERE WORDING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MODELS
SUGGEST AROUND A HALF INCH OF MOISTURE...BUT 1 HOUR FF GUIDANCE
HAS ROOM FOR AROUND AN INCH OR MORE. AFTER MIDNIGHT GROWTH OF
STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AS THEY TREND NORTHEAST INTO
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...CONTINUING WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL AND WINDS.
THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE ACTION AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN. THEN
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH POPS. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH 20MPH OVER FORT PECK LAKE
SATURDAY MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY...DRAGGING BACK
SIDE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STORM
SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH SOMEWHAT CALMER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AT LEAST INITIALLY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMES EVEN WEAKER AND ALLOWS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA FOR QUITE A WHILE.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO OUR
REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THIS LATER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE CASCADE RANGE AND CUTS OFF AS A
LARGE AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER
LOW MOVES EITHER EAST (GFS) OR NORTHEAST (ECMWF) OUT OF THE AREA.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO PART OF MONDAY. WILL
KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HAS MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH JUST ABOUT TO KGGW WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
EAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WESTERN ND.
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT
KGGW AND KOLF THROUGH 10Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST...AND JUST SKIM KGDV AND KSDY TOWARD 08-10Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SO HAVE GONE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE TAFS
THERE. WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT...WITH
A POSSIBLE LULL IN THE EARLY MORNING AT WRN SITES BEFORE MIXING
DURING THE DAY INCREASES WINDS AGAIN. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
VICIINTY OF KGDV AND KSDY AFT 00Z SUN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. MOYER
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
326 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. FOLLOWING THE FRONT
WILL BE A FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WHICH WILL
LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IN GENERAL TERMS...A WARM FRONT WILL VERY GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW...THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE DIFFUSE AT
THE SURFACE...AND IS EASIER IDENTIFIED LOOKING AT 850 MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT RATHER THAN SURFACE FEATURES. AT 300 AM THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING
LAKE HURON DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CONSENSUS OF BOTH 00Z
MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/RGEM/NAM ARE GENERALLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS...ALL GENERALLY KEYING ON THIS UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THIS
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS WOULD BRING
THIS ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 600 AM AND NOON. EXTRAPOLATING THIS
YIELDS A SIMILAR TIMING...BUT IT WOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE POSITION AND GENERAL NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...FEEL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE IN FORECASTING A
NORTHWARD JOG IN THIS. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. FAR SOUTHERN (SOUTHERN
TIER) AND NORTHERN (EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO) PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO DODGE THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH THIS...GIVEN THE MORNING
TIMING...AND LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE.
THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EITHER LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE. THERE
STILL MAY BE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD BE STALLED FROM TORONTO-ROCHESTER-BINGHAMTON. AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY STANDS A DECENT CHANCE FOR FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR TOP 80.
FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL LIFT WITH IT...THOUGH
SHOWERS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE..ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE FROM OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
DAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
BY AND LARGE LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT ALONG THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT IN THE MORNING...
AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +14C TO +16C
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN AT MODEST LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS
LINGERING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.
CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY...WITH MIDSUMMERLIKE HEAT CONTINUING. WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING AT THE LOW LEVELS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON A SLOW
BUT STEADY RISE...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS OF +16C TO +18C
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH
SOME OF OUR USUAL WARM SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR FAIRLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND CENTRAL CANADA. AT
THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESEE VALLEY
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...HELPING TO TRANSPORT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE WIDE-OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK PER A CONSENUS OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM. WILL THEREFORE
BEGIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BEFORE SPREADING THESE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED...THE 00Z MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
FASTER OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW
LOOKING TO OCCUR SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED
BY A QUICKER WEST-TO-EAST RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EAST FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN PLAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE USING A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR TIMING...
FOLLOWED BY A FASTER AND MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVING TREND
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY
STALL AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
FOR NOW WILL INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. OVERALL...EXPECT FAIR
AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO BE THE GENERAL RULE LATER IN THE
WEEK...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +10C TO +14C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80 BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW
5000 FEET...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP CIGS UP IN VFR TERRITORY.
THIS SAID..SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEMPORALLY
LOWER VSBY BELOW 5SM IN RAIN. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH THIS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
BUF/IAG/ROC. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD THEN BECOME SCATTERED
IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK NEAR ROC.
ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHC SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES TO TAKE OVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
151 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
MAY HELP TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE FAIR WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE....SHOWERS FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE DIED DOWN
ASIDE FROM A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR TWO. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER
LAKE HURON NOW IS FORECASTED BY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
THE 08Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME FROM THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA NORTHWEST
INTO CNY. THE NEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 0Z NAM 12 HAVE SHIFTED
FARTHER NORTH A BIT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...WITH THE
FOCUS ACROSS CNY VS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. STILL THINKING THE
MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THESE
SYSTEMS TO DIVE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
630 PM
UPDATE...MAIN ACTION CONTINUES TO BE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NNY BEING IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. CLOSER TO HOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF 81 NOW WITH JUST A FEW STRIKES OF
LIGHTING. WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STAYING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WILL MAINTAIN JUST ISOLATED T-STORMS FOR THIS EVENING
THEN DRY PAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLD CONVECTION MAINLY ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA IS
XPCTD TO DIE OFF THIS EVNG. LATER TNGT...MCS WILL LIKELY MAKE ITS
WAY SEWD FROM ONTARIO. GFS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN OTHER
MDLS...BUT GEM AND NAM SUGGEST PCPN WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY
10-12Z.
RETAINED CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR TMRW WITH THIS SYSTEM. FCST BCMS
VERY INTERESTING TMRW AFTN. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW A NW-SE CORRIDOR
ACRS THE BGM CWA WHICH WILL BE FVRBL FOR POTNL SVR DVLPMNT. AS
EXPECTED...THE NAM VALUES ARE HIGHER AND ACTUALLY QUITE IMPRSV
FOR THIS AREA IN TERMS OF EHI AND COMPOSITE SVR PARAMS. GFS VALUES
ARE LOWER (NOT SUPRISING) AND PLACE AXIS OF GREATEST POTNL
SLIGHTLY FURTHER W OF THE NAM. WE NOTE THAT MCS`S OFTEN DELAY THE
ADVANCEMNT OF THE WMFNT SO THE GFS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. IN ANY
EVENT...IF WRN ZONES BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE SAT AFTN AIDING
DESTABLIZATION...THERE WILL BE THE POTNL FOR STRONG/SVR TSRA
ALONG/NEAR THE WMFNT MID TO LATE AFTN. BEST GUESS ATTM IS GREATEST
POTNL WOULD BE ACRS AREAS GNRLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY TMRW. FOR NOW WE HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCMENT TO THE
TSRA GRIDS ACRS WRN ZONES FOR TMRW AFTN..AND WILL MENTION POTNL IN
THE HWO.
MAX TEMPS VERY TRICKY TMRW WITH THE WMFNT...AND I COULD SEE A
SCENARIO WHERE MAXES ACRS THE EAST (U60S/L70S) ARE TOO WARM WHILE
MAXES WEST OF THE WMFNT (M/U70S) ARE TOO COOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION XPCTD SAT NGT VCNTY OF THE WMFNT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY...WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC HELP...COULD HELP
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...BUT MOST AREA SWILL JUST
HAVE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH WARM TEMPS. EVEN WARMER ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NXT SYSTEM WITH SOME AREAS APRCHNG 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR RDG SLIDES TO THE EAST MON ALLOWING A LRG TROF TO SETTLE INTO
THE NRN LAKES. GNRL LWRG OF HGTS AHD OF THE SFC FNT COMBINED WITH
AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER SCT SHWRS AND TRWS ON TUE
THEN CONTG THRU THE PD AS TROF SLOWLY MVES EAST. SOME IMPRVMT PSBL
LATE IN THE PD...AS A WEAK HI MVES IN...BUT OVERALL PTRN STILL HAS
THE AREA IN A BROAD TROF THRU THE WEEK.
FOR THE PD...ONCE AGAIN FLWD HPC GUID WHICH WAS IN RSNBL
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL MOS GUID.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE TIMES OF EXCEPTION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RACE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND SLIDE ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN
PA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CIGS LOWERING TO BETWEEN FL050-100.
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS DURING THE 10Z-15Z PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
WAVE OVERCAST CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TO SCT-BKN AFT 16Z.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND POOLING MOISTURE ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND NORTH
CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE THREAT DURING MAINLY THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH WITH A SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE SUGGESTED BY
OUR COMPUTER MODELS TO DROP INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE AFTER DARK AND THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VCNTY OF KELM-KBGM-KAVP. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A
PROB FORECAST AFT 00Z TONIGHT...BUT DO HAVE MENTION OF A RISK OF
TSRA ACTIVITY AFFECTING TERMINAL OPS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT...CHC MVFR IN ISOLD-SCT TSRA
SUN/MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT VLY FOG PSBL EACH MRNG.
TUE...VFR GIVING WAY TO MVFR IN SCT TSRA
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1155 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.AVIATION.../06 TAFS/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...STILL SOMEWHAT OF A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP 0830-1430Z AT
KAMA AND 08-1430Z AT KDHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LIFR CIGS
WILL OCCUR AT KAMA AND KDHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME. IF LIFR CIGS OCCUR...MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE
10-13Z. HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
AT KGUY 09-13Z. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 16Z SATURDAY.
S/SSW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 14-18Z...TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE
18-21Z...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN 21-02Z.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS WILL BE COMING SHORTLY. WILL
REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED...WITH DRYLINE
REMAINING WEST OF FORECAST AREA...AND NO OPPORTUNE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ANTICIPATED. REMAINING ELEMENTS OF FORECAST LOOK FINE.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KAMA THROUGH 02Z BEFORE BECOMING
VFR THROUGH 09Z. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
09Z-15Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS 11Z-13Z. COULD SEE SOME
BR DEVELOP...BUT THINK THE LOWEST FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE CAUSED BY
CIGS.
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KDHT 0830Z-
1200Z. MAY SEE SOME BR...BUT SSW WINDS MAY PREVENT THIS FROM
MATERIALIZING.
HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KGUY
10Z-15Z. LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...DON/T BELIEVE ANY BR WILL
DEVELOP.
S/SSW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY AT ALL TAF SITES.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...EXCEPT IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...CUMULUS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON MESA. IF
THESE DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEY COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AND IN FACT...THE RAP SHOWS THIS SCENARIO
FOR A BRIEF WINDOW THIS EVENING. HIGH CIN VALUES AND RELATIVELY WEAK
0 TO 6 KM MEAN FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THE OK
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...BUT IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
AREA.
TOMORROW...THE DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW.
BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS PROGRESS
EAST...POSSIBLY MOVING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ENTIRELY. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLD FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO...IF NOT
ENTERING...THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THAT
STRONG DAY TIME COLD FRONTS ARE ABNORMAL FOR MID JUNE...EXPECT THAT
THE FRONT WILL SLOW IF NOT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE DRY AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE DRYLINE PROGRESSES EAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HAVE ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD STILL
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. STARTING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANCES FOR STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...IN A STARK DEPARTURE FROM
BOTH THE GFS AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF...NOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE
TO A SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY BEHIND THE FRONT. AM HESITANT TO GO WITH
THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO
HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GFS SOLUTION.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN...AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
PANHANDLES TOMORROW. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND GREEN FUELS...DO NOT
EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER
EAST...POSSIBLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. STILL...GIVEN THE CONDITION
OF THE FUELS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSH
THROUGH ALL OF THE PANHANDLES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER...AND
THUS HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
JJ/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1016 PM PDT Fri Jun 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad low pressure system spinning over the region will
continue to fuel scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
through Saturday. Sunday will be a marginally drier day in
Washington...with wet conditions persisting in the Idaho
Panhandle. Temperatures will be well below normal Saturday.
Temperatures will temporarily warm to seasonal levels for the
beginning of the work week...but unsettled weather will likely
return by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: mushy trough pattern in place, with several features
migrating around the parent trough. The most notable is the low
pressure center moving toward the southern Oregon coast, set to
move inland overnight into Saturday. At the same time several
minor vorticity lobes have been ejecting northeast across the
Inland Northwest this evening.
Trying to pick out each is difficult but the more distinct
vorticity max tracked into the southeast CWA from Oregon this
afternoon, with a second on its heels and tracking across north-
northeast into the Basin and stretching across the I-90 corridor
at this late hour. These helped trigger some scattered showers and
the isolated embedded thunderstorm. These have been dissipating in
coverage over the past couple hours and I adjusted PoPs to trim
the risk back to slight/isolated over much of the region.
The exception will remain across the Cascades through northern
Washington mountains. Moisture wrapping around the broader trough
and a secondary low developing around northeast Washington will
help sustain and/or increase the threat of showers from the north
through the night. Model guidance, including the latest run of
the 3-KM HRRR model, shows the precipitation increasing across
Okanogan and Ferry county overnight...especially after 09-10Z
(or 2-3AM).
As Saturday progresses trough axis pivots across the Pacific
Northwest into the northern Rockies and the moisture and embedded
disturbances pivoting around it are poised to expand the
precipitation southeastward, between late morning and
afternoon...before starting to shift out Saturday night. So away
from the deeper Columbia Basin and lee of the Cascades, most
locations have a good chance of seeing precipitation during the
day Saturday. The combination of the precipitation, cloud cover
and cool upper trough will lead much below normal afternoon highs.
So record low maximum temperature are possible. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A low pressure system will continue to migrate across
the Pacific Northwest Friday night through Saturday. With
instability waning for Friday night, mainly isolated shower are
expected in the vicinity of TAF sites. However toward late morning
to early afternoon Saturday moisture wrapping around the passing
low will increase from the north, leading to increasing
precipitation over most of the eastern TAF sites. Chances will
also be found around KEAT/KMWH. The highest threat will be between
18Z and 03Z. During this period occnl MVFR/isolated IFR
conditions can be expected around KGEG/KSFF/KCOE, while VFR/occnl
MVFR near KPUW/KLWS. There is some disagreement over the precise
timing of these deteriorating conditions; some guidance brings the
threat in as early as 15Z. So the forecast will continue to be
fine-tuned. After 03Z, most locations are expected to see
improving conditions as the low begins to move out. KCOE/KPUW/KLWS
may hold onto the lower conditions longer. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 40 53 43 65 45 73 / 20 80 60 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 37 51 45 60 46 72 / 20 90 70 40 10 10
Pullman 37 53 43 61 44 71 / 20 80 60 20 10 10
Lewiston 42 60 48 69 49 77 / 20 70 50 20 0 0
Colville 40 56 46 72 45 77 / 50 80 60 20 10 10
Sandpoint 39 50 45 57 45 71 / 30 90 70 50 20 10
Kellogg 38 47 42 54 43 69 / 40 90 80 70 10 10
Moses Lake 42 67 47 75 49 79 / 20 40 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 45 64 48 75 51 80 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Omak 44 64 45 77 46 79 / 30 60 10 10 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WITH IT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND RIDGING OVER
THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING HAS BEEN HELPING TO ADVECT DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA...AS SEEN IN GOES SOUNDER AND RAP PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANALYSES. AN AREA OF VALUES AROUND 0.8 INCHES IN MISSOURI HAS BEEN
STEADILY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO IOWA. THIS DRIER AIR MOVING IN HAS
RESULTED IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS
ALSO BROUGHT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
SOUNDINGS OF 19C AT MPX AND 16C AT GRB. NOTE THAT MPX MIXED UP TO
780MB YESTERDAY. THESE READINGS ARE HOLDING STEADY PER RAP ANALYSIS.
WITH A SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND THE WARMER AIR...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ONLY DROPPED INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. TO THE WEST OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDS
DOWN INTO TEXAS...HELPING TO PULL HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1-1.25 INCHES UP INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN MONTANA.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE
NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE
TO RIDGING THAT CONTINUES TO BUILT UP AHEAD OF IT. BY 00Z MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRETCH FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH INTO THE
DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE
REMAINS TIMING PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE TROUGH.
THE 09.00Z NAM IS BY FAR THE FASTEST...HAVING IT REACH ROCHESTER BY
00Z MONDAY. THE 09.00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SLOWER...
HAVING IT AT MOST IN EASTWARD PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z
MONDAY. PREFER TO STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS AND PAST MODEL RUNS WITH A
SLOWER TIMING...WHICH WOULD MATCH THE UPPER FLOW IDEA WITH RIDGING
BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO SLOW THINGS DOWN.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION...SINCE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT LOOKS TO KEEP THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN PLACE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
GREAT CONCERN THAT...DUE TO THE MIXING AND DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ALL PRECIPITATION MAY END UP BEING POST-FRONTAL. THIS IS
IN-LINE WITH THE 09.00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF. HAVE KEPT A LOW...20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...JUST
IN CASE MODELS SPEED UP. HOWEVER...LIKELY SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY. ONLY
OTHER CONCERN IS WINDS ON SUNDAY...DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SPEEDS COULD TRY TO GET UP CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. RIGHT NOW THINK THEY WILL STAY BELOW...BUT 25KT
WINDS LOOK LIKELY AT DODGE CENTER AND ROCHESTER. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...WITH DRYING SOILS AND A LOT OF SUN...ALONG WITH THE
BREEZE...DEEP MIXING LIKE WAS SEEN YESTERDAY SHOULD OCCUR BOTH TODAY
AND SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 16-18C SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT NICELY TOO. A
BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP LIFTING NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. AGAIN...THERE ARE SPEED ISSUES WITH
BOTH THIS TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND PRECEDING COLD FRONT...WITH THE
09.00Z NAM THE FASTEST AND THE 09.00Z GFS NOT FAR BEHIND. STILL HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAN A LITTLE SLOWER...CLOSER TO THE 09.00Z
UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF GIVEN THE NAM BEING FASTEST FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
FRONT. IN ANY EVENT...THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT NEARLY PARALLELING THE
UPPER FLOW...THE BEST DYNAMICAL FORCING IS LIKELY TO STAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GIVEN A DRY AND CAPPED AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO EITHER BE TIED RIGHT ON THE
FRONT OR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DYNAMICAL AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
GOING TO BE LIMITED BY A DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUMP UP TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF THE FRONT AT 12Z MONDAY TANK TO
0.5 INCH OR LESS. THEREFORE...BEST TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION IS GOING
TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP DRY IN THE MORNING. MOST PLACES
SHOULD BE DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LOOK TO SEE THE MOST PRECIP OVERALL...SINCE MODEL PROGGED
FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONGEST THERE AND SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET LOOKS TO OCCUR. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
80-100 IN THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...BEST
CHANCE OF THIS IS IN THE EVENING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA...WHEN MLCAPE IS IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE FRONT. BETTER
0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR IS
30-35KT. DECENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER 0-3KM
SHEAR SUGGESTS WIND IS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS ON MONDAY IN THE 13-16C RANGE AND INCREASING
SUN SHOULD BRING HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO PERHAPS EVEN MID 80S
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN OCCURS.
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO TURN ZONAL WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO HUDSON BAY. SUBSIDENCE...
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION ALL LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THANKS TO THE SWITCH TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS TANK TO 4-8C BY 12Z
TUESDAY...PERHAPS EVEN COOLER PER THE 09.00Z NAM. AS SUCH...EXPECT A
MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
09.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT...
ALONG WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...SHOWING THE ZONAL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT BEING TEMPORARY. BY THURSDAY...NEW TROUGHING IS SHOWN
TO DROP INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST CANADA...FORCING
RIDGING TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
DURING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE ZONAL AND RIDGING BUILDING UP
TOWARDS THE REGION. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AND COOLER
THAN OF LATE...DUE TO 850MB TEMPS 7-11C. THE WARM ADVECTION THEN
COMMENCES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY...SO HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION THEN LOOKS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE UP
TOWARDS 16-18C. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS CHANCES IN THE 20-30 RANGE
SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ENDS
UP NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. UPPER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FOR FRIDAY...YIELDING A DRY DAY. 850MB TEMPS MAY EVEN CLIMB
TOWARDS 20C FOR FRIDAY...SO DEFINITELY A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY
NEED A FURTHER BOOST UP OVER THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE 09.00Z
ECMWF VERIFIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PERSIST RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 20C.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1130 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE WIND ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY WITH WHEN IT BEGINS AND HOW HIGH THE GUSTS
WILL GET TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALREADY IN PLACE...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL START
GUSTING EARLY WITH THE PEAK GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY AROUND 1Z TOMORROW
EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SOME SPORADIC CIRRUS CLOUDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
FIRST OFF...HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORDS.
RECORD HIGHS RANGE FROM 93-96 AT LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER.
SECONDLY...THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT THIS MONTH OF JUNE
COULD BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME INDICATORS
INCLUDE:
1. PER JUNE 5TH DROUGHT MONITOR...MUCH OF IOWA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI
ARE DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS IN TURN LIMITS
EVAPOTRANSPORATION FROM CROPS AND OTHER VEGETATION. IN FACT...THERE
ARE ALREADY REPORTS IN IOWA AND MISSOURI OF CURLING CORN LEAVES AND
SOYBEAN EMERGENCE PROBLEMS.
2. WARM AND BREEZY DAYS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO FURTHER DRY
OUT VEGETATION...WHICH ALSO IN TURN CAN MIX OUT MOISTURE IN THE AIR
RETURNING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
3. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO WESTERN TROUGHING AND STRONG EASTERN RIDGING...
BLOCKING THE AREA FROM SEEING MUCH CONVECTION.
4. MANY CFS MODEL RUNS SHOWING THE REST OF THE MONTH OF JUNE TO
AVERAGE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...HOPEFULLY THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
CAN GIVE OUR AREA A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...IT
APPEARS A DROUGHT MAY SET IN AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE
IN THE EXTENDED ARE VERY UNCERTAIN.
FOR REFERENCE...HERE ARE SOME LOWEST MONTHLY PRECIPITATION RECORDS.
CERTAINLY PLENTY OF TIME TO GET MORE PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE
DRY PATTERN...THESE MIGHT BE OF INTEREST.
LA CROSSE...CURRENTLY STAND AT 0.06 INCHES.
1. 0.37 INCHES IN 1910
2. 0.98 INCHES IN 1887
3. 1.33 INCHES IN 1989
ROCHESTER...CURRENTLY STAND AT 0.08 INCHES.
1. TRACE IN 1910
2. 0.94 INCHES IN 1985
3. 1.08 INCHES IN 1964
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
CLIMATE...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT...ALLOWING FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO RETURN
TO THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EDT...LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOWS
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NY/SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN NW FLOW ALONG A WEAK
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AS THE ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE FROM THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. FURTHER NORTH...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE SRN
ADIRONDACKS. THE LATEST 07 UTC HRRR SHOWS THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE MORNING...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SCT
ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR THE AFTN
HOURS...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SKIES LOOK MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR
THE DAY.
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST RIBBON OF
INSTABILITY TODAY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN NY TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL
PA AND NJ. WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HEADED TOWARDS
OUR AREA THIS MORNING...AND FORECASTED SHOWALTER VALUES TO ONLY
DROP TO AS LOW AS +2 C...THIS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH THUNDER FROM
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTN...BUT IT DOESN/T LOOK TOO WIDESPREAD...AND
ANY STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST TODAY.
HAVE GONE WITH A MET/MAV BLEND FOR TEMPS TODAY...WITH 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING. WILL LOWER POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TAKE PLACE...AND A COOL NIGHT WILL OCCUR
FOR THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
RANGE FROM THE 40S IN NORTHERN AREAS...TO MID TO UPPER 50S IN
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO LIFT AS A WARM
FRONT ON SUNDAY...AS WEAK FLOW FROM THE SURFACE-850 HPA FROM THE
W-SW STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN THE DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS WARMING TO 12-16 DEGREES C...WARMER MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY...WITH 80S ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL START TO
CREEP UP...BUT IT WON/T BECOME TOO UNBEARABLE JUST YET...WITH TDS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F.
A NARROW AREA OF STRONG RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS/HIGHER
HEIGHTS ALOFT...THIS SHOULD PUT A CAP IN PLACE...AND PREVENT ANY CONVECTION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE S-SE SURFACE FLOW...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ENOUGH MOISTURE COMES OFF THE ATLANTIC TO
ALLOW A MARINE LAYER TO SNEAK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FOR
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ON MONDAY LOOK PRETTY WARM...ESP FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL REACH THE
MID 60S IN SOME AREAS AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR A MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
DAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR WESTERN AREAS...IN
CASE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA...AS THE
RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MON NIGHT MIN TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA...WITH MUGGY TDS
CONTINUING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER JAMES BAY LOW AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO INTERACT AND MERGE OVER JAMES BAY REGION
DURING THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL EXIT FURTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING A TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
MERGES OVER JAMES BAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY FOR THE CWFA TUESDAY. WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH CHANCE
POPS AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. QUESTION
REMAINS JUST HOW FAR TO THE EAST THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS AS THE
GGEM/GFS REMAIN THE SLOWEST WITH A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FAVORS A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS SO WE WILL RETAIN AN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEYOND TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AND AWAIT FOR FUTURE TRENDS AND CONFIDENCE.
THEREAFTER...WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR NOW AND TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS ALONG WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE LACK OF THERMALLY ADVECTIVE CHANGES SEEN IN THE
ENSEMBLES THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. THIS AREA OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST
OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME RESIDUAL
IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH LOW CIGS AND VIS DUE TO FOG...BUT
THIS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR TODAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD
OF MVFR WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...AS RAINFALL SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...WE ONCE AGAIN
FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...WE WILL PLACE
`MIFG`.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 5KTS AND VARIABLE
DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA. CHC EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX. CHC LATE NT/EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
TUE...VFR/MVFR...INCR CHC SHRA/TSRA. LATE NT/EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
WED...VFR...CHC MVFR -SHRA. LATE NT/EARLY AM MVFR/IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY...ESP FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 4-8
MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE BEST FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL ONLY BE UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WHICH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH A
FEW SPOTS MAY LOCALLY RECEIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A VERY WEAK
COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND
PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT THEN EVENTUALLY BACK TO A WASHINGTON
DC OCEAN CITY MARYLAND LINE SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK CLOUDINESS NOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF PA AND N 3/4 OF NJ BY
15Z THEN MAY START THINNING MIDDAY.
07Z HRRR HAS SPRINKLES MODELED INTO FAR NNJ BETWEN 12Z-15Z.
LIGHT WIND BECOMES W 10-15 KTS LATE THIS MORNING.
NW FLOW WAA CONVECTIVE EVENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN OR EVENING.
PLS SEE SWODAY1 AND ANY SWOMCD`S ETC AS WELL AS OUR DISCUSSIONS
REGARDING SVR WX POTENTIAL IN OUR FCST AREA.
BL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE ON THE SHY SIDE WITH MODELED SFC
TDS IN THE 50S AND THE ASSOCIATED ML CAPE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 600J.
NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
MAX TEMPS IN SE PA ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S...
NEAR 90 IN FAR S NJ...MUCH OF DE AND MD WHERE MORE SUN.
GUSTY W-WNW 15-20 KT SFC FLOW INITIALLY ACTS TO DRY AND PREVENT
TSTMS BUT EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CAPE...UP TO 600J ML CAPE
BY 22Z AHD OF A SWD SAGGING COOL FRONT WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
STRONG TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY. CIN COULD BE A HINDRANCE AND BOTH
12Z/8 AND OOZ/9 UK WERE DRY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. 00Z/9 GFS
SVR RISK: SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS IS
INDICATED AS WELL AS TT 48-50 WITH KI 32-36 WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ROLLING SEWD 25-30 KT SRN NYS THRU NE PA AND
N NJ DURING THE LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING. FAIR AMT OF 0-3KM SHEAR
AS WELL NE PA AND NNJ. THE QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH CONVECTION.
GFS HAS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTION DOWN PHL NRN SUBURBS
TO ALMOST KACY THIS EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SREF HAVE POPS 20 PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE
FCST FOR PA AND NJ LATE TODAY BUT I TRIMMED TO 45 PCT MAX DUE TO
MY CONCERNS ABOUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND RATHER DRY CANADIAN/UK
MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TWD DAWN SUNDAY BUT PROBABLY
RESTRICTED TO ONLY NNJ OR NE 1/2 NJ. OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE WHERE IT RAINS BUT THATS THE UNKNOWN
ATTM.
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS WERE ALL 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/9 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE. SKY WAS 50 50 BLENDED GFS MOSGUIDE AND NAM RH...WHICH
LOOKS PRETTY COMPARABLE TO THE 00Z/9 UK/ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS/SKY IS ABV AVG...BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE ON POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL MEAN SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THERE IS A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE WHEN SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE USHERED IN ON NW UPPER
FLOW ALOFT. WE HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CHC POPS ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND
NRN NJ FOR NOW WITH SLGT CHC POPS SOUTH OF THIS ACROSS THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND ERN NJ. TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH SUN LIKELY THE WARMER DAY. HIGHS ON MON
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BE OFF THE COAST TUE. MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SLIGHT TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL ROUND OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING WEATHER SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEKS...WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DAILY (MOSTLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING). CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MOST OF THE
DAYS...THE BEST CHC ARE TIED TO WHEN THE BEST SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
ARRIVES...AND MODELS DO POORLY RESOLVING THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME. GENERALLY A CONTINUITY FCST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HELP
PRODUCE A CLEANER LOOKING MAP WHEN LOOKING AT NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
HIGHS TUE-FRI WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S (SOUTH) AND UPPER 50S T0 MID 60S (NORTH).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. CIGS AOA 8000 FT IN THE MORNING MAINLY PA AND N
3/4 NJ SHOULD THIN MIDDAY AND PERMIT SCT-BKN NEAR 6000-7000 FT IN
THE AFTN. CHANCE FOR A BRIEF MVFR COND SHOWER OR TSTM IN KRDG/KABE
REGION BETWEEN 21Z-23Z SPREADING SEWD TO KTTN/KPNE/KACY AREA 23Z-
02Z. IF TSTMS DEVELOP...MAY SEE ISOLATED NNW SFC GUST 30-35 KTS.
TAF IS CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.
KPHL-KMIV LOOKS TO BE ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE TSTM RISK.
TONIGHT AFTER 03Z...VFR WITH PATCHY CIGS AOA 6000 FT. LOW PROB OF
A SHOWER WITH TSTMS ON THE WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING DRIVER FADES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD
BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR WATERS.
WEST WINDS ARE FCST TODAY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... MAINLY NEARSHORE. SEABREEZES POSSIBLE NNJ COAST LATE
TODAY. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED. POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTM
LATE THIS AFTN OR EVE MAY PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND A NNW
WIND GUST 30-35 KTS...MAINLY NNJ WATERS BUT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
EVEN DOWN TO KACY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
DURING THE MID-WEEK MAY BRING NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY WED. LOW
CONFID IN THIS ATTM.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A VERY WEAK
COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND
PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT THEN EVENTUALLY BACK TO A WASHINGTON
DC OCEAN CITY MARYLAND LINE SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK CLOUDINESS NOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF PA AND N 3/4 OF NJ BY
15Z THEN MAY START THINNING MIDDAY.
07Z HRRR HAS SPRINKLES MODELED INTO FAR NNJ BETWEN 12Z-15Z.
LIGHT WIND BECOMES W 10-15 KTS LATE THIS MORNING.
NW FLOW WAA CONVECTIVE EVENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN OR EVENING.
PLS SEE SWODAY1 AND ANY SWOMCD`S ETC AS WELL AS OUR DISCUSSIONS
REGARDING SVR WX POTENTIAL IN OUR FCST AREA.
BL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE ON THE SHY SIDE WITH MODELED SFC
TDS IN THE 50S AND THE ASSOCIATED ML CAPE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 600J.
NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
MAX TEMPS IN SE PA ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S...
NEAR 90 IN FAR S NJ...MUCH OF DE AND MD WHERE MORE SUN.
GUSTY W-WNW 15-20 KT SFC FLOW INITIALLY ACTS TO DRY AND PREVENT
TSTMS BUT EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CAPE...UP TO 600J ML CAPE
BY 22Z AHD OF A SWD SAGGING COOL FRONT WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
STRONG TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY. CIN COULD BE A HINDRANCE AND BOTH
12Z/8 AND OOZ/9 UK WERE DRY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. 00Z/9 GFS
SVR RISK: SUFFICIENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS IS
INDICATED AS WELL AS TT 48-50 WITH KI 32-36 WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ROLLING SEWD 25-30 KT SRN NYS THRU NE PA AND
N NJ DURING THE LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING. FAIR AMT OF 0-3KM SHEAR
AS WELL NE PA AND NNJ. THE QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH CONVECTION.
GFS HAS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTION DOWN PHL NRN SUBURBS
TO ALMOST KACY THIS EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SREF HAVE POPS 20 PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE
FCST FOR PA AND NJ LATE TODAY BUT I TRIMMED TO 45 PCT MAX DUE TO
MY CONCERNS ABOUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND RATHER DRY CANADIAN/UK
MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TWD DAWN SUNDAY BUT PROBABLY
RESTRICTED TO ONLY NNJ OR NE 1/2 NJ. OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE WHERE IT RAINS BUT THATS THE UNKNOWN
ATTM.
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS WERE ALL 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/9 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE. SKY WAS 50 50 BLENDED GFS MOSGUIDE AND NAM RH...WHICH
LOOKS PRETTY COMPARABLE TO THE 00Z/9 UK/ECMWF.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS/SKY IS ABV AVG...BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE ON POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL MEAN SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THERE IS A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE WHEN SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE USHERED IN ON NW UPPER
FLOW ALOFT. WE HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CHC POPS ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND
NRN NJ FOR NOW WITH SLGT CHC POPS SOUTH OF THIS ACROSS THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND ERN NJ. TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH SUN LIKELY THE WARMER DAY. HIGHS ON MON
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BE OFF THE COAST TUE. MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SLIGHT TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL ROUND OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING WEATHER SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEKS...WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DAILY (MOSTLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING). CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MOST OF THE
DAYS...THE BEST CHC ARE TIED TO WHEN THE BEST SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
ARRIVES...AND MODELS DO POORLY RESOLVING THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME. GENERALLY A CONTINUITY FCST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HELP
PRODUCE A CLEANER LOOKING MAP WHEN LOOKING AT NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
HIGHS TUE-FRI WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S (SOUTH) AND UPPER 50S T0 MID 60S (NORTH).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. CIGS AOA 8000 FT IN THE MORNING MAINLY PA AND N
3/4 NJ SHOULD THIN MIDDAY AND PERMIT SCT-BKN NEAR 6000-7000 FT IN
THE AFTN. CHANCE FOR A BRIEF MVFR COND SHOWER OR TSTM IN KRDG/KABE
REGION BETWEEN 21Z-23Z SPREADING SEWD TO KTTN/KPNE/KACY AREA 23Z-
02Z. IF TSTMS DEVELOP...MAY SEE ISOLATED NNW SFC GUST 30-35 KTS.
TAF IS CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.
KPHL-KMIV LOOKS TO BE ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE TSTM RISK.
TONIGHT AFTER 03Z...VFR WITH PATCHY CIGS AOA 6000 FT. LOW PROB OF
A SHOWER WITH TSTMS ON THE WANE AS DIURNAL HEATING DRIVER FADES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD
BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR WATERS.
WEST WINDS ARE FCST TODAY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... MAINLY NEARSHORE. SEABREEZES POSSIBLE NNJ COAST LATE
TODAY. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED. POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTM
LATE THIS AFTN OR EVE MAY PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND A NNW
WIND GUST 30-35 KTS...MAINLY NNJ WATERS BUT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
EVEN DOWN TO KACY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
DURING THE MID-WEEK MAY BRING NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY WED. LOW
CONFID IN THIS ATTM.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS AFTERNOON CONVECTION FLARING UP AGAIN WITH THE
ONSET OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AS WELL
SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
AVIATION...SOME -RA PSBL E COAST TERMINALS THRU 14Z BUT VFR CONDS
XPCTD. BUT BY 18Z...TSRA DVLPG IN THE INTERIOR OF S FLA WL MOV E AND
AFFECT THE E COAST TERMINALS ESPECIALLY FM KFLL TO KPBI. ONLY VCTS
IN ALL E COAST TAFS ATTM. CRRNT SFC WNDS CALM TO VRY LGT SE BCMG AFT
14Z SE 8-12 KTS ALL TERMINALS. AT KAPF...VFR THRU PD WITH ISOLD SHRA
INVOF KAPF BUT VCSH NOT IN TAFS ATTM. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DVLP AFT
16Z SHUD BE E OF TERMINAL REMAINDER OF PD. CRRNT WND E < 10 KTS
BCMG AFT 18Z SSW-W ARND 10 KTS AS W COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
AVIATION...SVR WX ON THE W COAST DELAYED THIS ISSUANCE. A LINE OF
WEAKENING SHRA/TSRA MOVG E ACRS THE INTERIOR OF S FLA WL BRING
SHRA TO THE E COAST TERMINALS THRU 14Z. SOME MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL.
AFT 14Z WDSPRD VFR CONDS XPCTD BUT BY 18Z...TSRA DVLPG IN THE
INTERIOR OF S FLA WL MOV E AND AFFECT THE E COAST TERMINALS. ONLY
VCTS IN TAFS ATTM. CRRNT SFC WNDS CALM TO VRY LGT SE BCMG AFT 14Z
SE 8-12 KTS ALL TERMINALS. AT KAPF...VFR THRU PD WITH ISOLD SHRA
INVOF KAPF THRU 12Z. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DVLP SHUD BE E OF TERMINAL
REMAINDER OF PD. CRRNT WND SE ARND 10 KTS BCMG AFT 18Z SSW-W ARND
10 KTS AS W COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING...
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING
A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT
ACROSS THE REGION. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH 8 AM...AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE GLOBAL MODELS QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS AREA OF
STORMS...AND THEN TREND SEEMS TO BE DOWN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL GET PUSHED TO
THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALSO PUSH EASTWARD FURTHER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH AND WASH OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE TODAY.
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING IN ITS
WAKE. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL STABILIZE
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER...PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY FORCE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS SET UP. KEPT HIGHER
POPS FOR THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING DUE TO THE SHOWERS MOVING
EAST. OTHERWISE...HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO COLLIDED AND LOW END CHANCE FOR
THE EAST AND WEST COASTS.
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA STRAITS WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH RISING HEIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. 500MB
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 591-592 DAM. THIS WILL IMPART
A TRYING TREND ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST...AND HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
105 TO 110F IN COLLIER COUNTY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND OPEN UP INTO A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. AS IT SLIDES TOWARDS FLORIDA ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL OFF
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO
MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
OVER ALL THE LOCAL WATERS. THE SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 3 FEET OR
LESS OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 88 76 / 50 30 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 77 89 77 / 30 30 30 10
MIAMI 90 78 90 77 / 30 30 30 10
NAPLES 89 77 91 76 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
857 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL COME MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER RECENT RAP MODEL OUTPUT, THAT SHOWED TRACK OF ANY DEVELOPING
BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST, HAVE LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO FOREST COUNTY AREA.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES
WHERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF SREF AND LATEST GFS MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS WRN STATES TROF DIGS EASTWARD...EASTERN CONUS TROF WL BE AMPLIFYING FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. FURTHER MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE MAY THUS BE
ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH MONDAY
AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES OVR THE UPR OH DUE TO THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
THE NEXT CHC FOR SHRA AND TSRA IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THAT MOISTURE
AND WARMTH IMPROVES THE INSTABILITY PROFILE AND INTERACTS WITH A GFS-
NAM-PROGGED SHORTWAVE IN SW FLOW.
THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED USING
TWEAKED...AND GENERALLY CONSISTENT GFS MOS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPR TROF AND COLD FRONT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
RETURN DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL LONG TERM TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST AT...OR ABOVE NORMAL
USING TWEAKED HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A
SHRA OR TSRA INTO NORTHWESTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WILL
KEEP MENTION OUT OF NORTHERN TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE ON
RESTRICTIONS AT THOSE SITES IS RELATIVELY LOW.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
922 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.UPDATE...
GAVE 1ST PERIOD TEMPS A BUMP EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE
IT APPEARS COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE COLD FRONT WHICH JUST
PASSED RAPID CITY AT AROUND 12Z. HRRR AND RAP DONT HAVE THE FRONT
PUNCHING THROUGH KRAP. WITH H700 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C TO 15C THIS
AFTN...UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 SHOULD OPERATE ACROSS SWRN NEB.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE NCNTL WITH MID 90S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
AVIATION...
WIND WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY. BY ABOUT 15Z...WE EXPECT THE
WIND TO BE 170-190 AT 14-18G22-26KT ALONG AND EAST OF A VTN- TIF-
IML LINE. LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z...A FRONT WILL COME ACROSS A
VTN-TIF-LBF LINE AND WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST 300-320 AT
14-16G22-26KT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS AN ONL-BBW LINE 12-15Z
SUNDAY.
IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NEAR IML AND OGA...MARGINAL CEILINGS OF
ABOUT 1500 FEET AGL ARE LIKELY...BUT THEY SHOULD SCATTER OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WILL CONTINUE TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21Z ALONG AND WEST OF
A MRR-MHN-IML LINE. VERY DRY AIR IN THE SFC-600MB LAYER WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AND COULD PRODUCE MICROBURST WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 45KT. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. FOR THE AREA
EAST OF THAT LINE...WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CAP UPDRAFTS AND RETARD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
DISCUSSION...
LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL MAKE IT/S WAY EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A DRY LINE WILL MIX EAST THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO
EXTREME NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND BECOMES STATIONARY. WINDS WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE DRY LINE AND SFC LOW ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WINDS MAY BECOME
EAST AS THE COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH AND BECOMES STATIONARY. THE
HEAT WILL BE ON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INVOF AND WEST OF THE DRY LINE...WHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ARE
EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AND INCREASE SOME THROUGH
THE DAY TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND
HIGHS MAY BE HELD IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S DUE TO THE INCREASING
MOISTURE. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE DRY
LINE...BUT WINDS APPEAR THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE THE NEXT CONCERN. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
NAM MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING T-STORM ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA /LATEST GEM REGIONAL ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA/ INVOF OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES. THIS AREA APPEARS QUITE
PRIME FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH NOSE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COINCIDING WITH BACKED EASTERLY SFC FLOW AND POOLING MOISTURE.
THIS POOLING MOISTURE LEADS TO STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH SFC BASED
CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO
INCREASES DURING THE EVENING...AS WELL AS STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DESPITE A STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...IT
APPEARS THE CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY DURING THE EVENING FOR STORM
INITIATION DUE TOO CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
/TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THE ABOVE FACTORS WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS...AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
CONVECTION INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA IS IN DOUBT...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED STORM INVOF OF THE DRY LINE.
THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE NEAR THE SFC LOW...WHICH SHOULD RESIDE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE ADDED A LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED MENTION IN
THESE AREAS. INTERESTING THAT THE LATEST RUN OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
NMM MODEL ACTUALLY SHOW STORMS ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
DURING THE EVENING. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH SUCH WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE AREA BEING REMOVED FROM THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT RESIDING THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS WILL BRING SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83 DURING THE
EVENING. THIS WILL ACCOUNT FOR ANY STORM FIRING ON THE DRY LINE
HOLDING TOGETHER.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING. COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PASSES. OTHERWISE VERY DRY AIR IS INDICATED TO SWEEP EAST OFF
THE ROCKIES...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AM
HESITANT TO GO MUCH OVER SLIGHT FOR RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME...AS
MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BE OVER DOING RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE OUTER
PERIODS. OTHERWISE...WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER... TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY WILL BRING
LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO CRITICAL LEVELS BELOW
15 PERCENT IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE (ZONE 204) AND THE FRENCHMAN
BASIN (ZONE 210). CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIND WILL BE AROUND
15 MPH IN THE FRENCHMAN BASIN WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BUT LESS THAN
25 MPH. REPORTS AROUND THE AREA INDICATE THAT RECENT RAIN HAS
REDUCED THE RISK OF EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. THEREFORE... THOUGH
THINGS IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1123 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR ROCHESTER SOUTHEAST THROUGH
BINGHAMTON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
SYRACUSE, ROME, ONEONTA, AND MONTECELLO. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ELMIRA, TOWANDA, AND SCRANTON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS. MONDAY LOOKS WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WITH MOSTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER...OUTSIDE OF WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP POPS AND TEMPS FOR MORNING TRENDS. FRONT
LIES FROM EAST OF ROC TO BGM TO MSV AND TEMPERATURES TO THE NE ARE
RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECASTED HANGING IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE SHOWERS ALONG AND NE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. TO THE SE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED AND THERE
HAS BEEN MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
70S. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP TRENDS WHICH
KEEPS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THE CENTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN THIS MORNING. THE 06Z NAM GIVES US
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 750 AND 1000 BUT HAS TOO MUCH MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS SO THE LOW END OF THAT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.
THE DEW POINTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN IN THE 50S WITH SOME INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN. ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AND MOST LIKELY
IN THE WARMER SW ZONES THIS AFTN/EVE. CHANCE SHOWERS REMAINS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
520 AM SAT UPDATE... UPR-LVL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WANE ACRS THE
RGN FROM TNT...RIGHT INTO MON...WITH BUILDING HGTS ALOFT ACRS MOST
OF THE ERN CONUS THIS PD. THUS...OTHER THAN ISOLD-SCTD
CONVECTION...FAVORED NEAR THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY SUN...AND DURG
PEAK HTG ON MON...CONDS SHOULD BE LARGELY RAIN-FREE.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON SUN...AS COMPARED TO TDY (HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S)...WITH READINGS WARMER STILL ON MON (TEMPS MAKING A
RUN AT 90 IN OUR NORMALLY WARMER URBANIZED VLYS (NEAR KSYR AND KAVP)).
BY LATER MON NGT/EARLY TUE...THE PROSPECTS FOR SHRA/TSRA MAY BEGIN
TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM NW-SE...OWING TO HGT FALLS ALOFT AND THE GRADUAL
APPRCH OF A COLD FRNT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM SAT UPDATE... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BROKEN
DOWN FROM LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BY MOST OF THE MED RANGE
SOLUTIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION...TAKING DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH IT. SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A GOOD
LIKELY HOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ENOUGH AT THAT TIME RANGE TO
HOLD BACK ON A DEFINITIVE CALL. LATER ON THROUGH THE WEEK...MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN ESTABLISHING A WESTERN ATLANTIC
BLOCKING LOW...AND WHERE ANY DISTURBANCES ALONG THE STALLED
OFFSHORE FRONT WILL FORM AND THEIR EFFECT BACK HERE. LATEST ECMWF
MOVES THE FRONT FURTHEST EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY WX
WORKING IN AFTER WEDS. GFS AND GGEM SUGGEST HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
OUR EASTERN HALF. MY HUNCH IS THE FORECAST PROBABLY DOESN`T NEED
AS MUCH MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WE HAVE ON WEDS-THURS...BUT
WILL LEAVE THE SCHC-CHC POPS MENTIONED.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARM IF THERE WASN`T
GOING TO BE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER
70S-LOW 80S WILL PREVAIL POST FRONTAL WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF 00Z MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE TIMES OF EXCEPTION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RACE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND SLIDE ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN
PA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CIGS LOWERING TO BETWEEN FL050-100.
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS DURING THE 10Z-15Z PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
WAVE OVERCAST CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TO SCT-BKN AFT 16Z.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND POOLING MOISTURE ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND NORTH
CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE THREAT DURING MAINLY THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH WITH A SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE SUGGESTED BY
OUR COMPUTER MODELS TO DROP INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE AFTER DARK AND THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VCNTY OF KELM-KBGM-KAVP. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A
PROB FORECAST AFT 00Z TONIGHT...BUT DO HAVE MENTION OF A RISK OF
TSRA ACTIVITY AFFECTING TERMINAL OPS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT...CHC MVFR IN ISOLD-SCT TSRA
SUN/MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT VLY FOG PSBL EACH MRNG.
TUE...VFR GIVING WAY TO MVFR IN SCT TSRA
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
737 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. FOLLOWING THE FRONT
WILL BE A FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WHICH WILL
LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IN GENERAL TERMS...A WARM FRONT WILL VERY GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW...THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE DIFFUSE AT
THE SURFACE...AND IS EASIER IDENTIFIED LOOKING AT 850 MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT RATHER THAN SURFACE FEATURES. AT 700 AM THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO LAKE
ONTARIO.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING LAKE
HURON DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GFS/RGEM/NAM ARE GENERALLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALL GENERALLY KEYING ON THIS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. THE HRRR IS ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH GENERALLY MORE
SHOWERS LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL...SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HRRR...AND
THE MAJORITY OF OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGEST FAIRLY SPARSE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LACK OF A
STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...SEE THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS MARGINAL...AND CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EITHER LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE STALLED FROM TORONTO-ROCHESTER-BINGHAMTON.
AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY STANDS A DECENT CHANCE FOR FAIR WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE HIGHS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH OR TOP 80.
FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL LIFT WITH IT...THOUGH
SHOWERS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE..ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE FROM OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
DAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
BY AND LARGE LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT ALONG THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT IN THE MORNING...
AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +14C TO +16C
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN AT MODEST LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS
LINGERING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.
CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY...WITH MIDSUMMERLIKE HEAT CONTINUING. WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING AT THE LOW LEVELS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON A SLOW
BUT STEADY RISE...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS OF +16C TO +18C
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH
SOME OF OUR USUAL WARM SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR FAIRLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND CENTRAL CANADA. AT
THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...HELPING TO TRANSPORT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE WIDE-OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK PER A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM. WILL THEREFORE
BEGIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BEFORE SPREADING THESE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED...THE 00Z MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
FASTER OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW
LOOKING TO OCCUR SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED
BY A QUICKER WEST-TO-EAST RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EAST FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN PLAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE USING A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR TIMING...
FOLLOWED BY A FASTER AND MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVING TREND
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY
STALL AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
FOR NOW WILL INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. OVERALL...EXPECT FAIR
AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO BE THE GENERAL RULE LATER IN THE
WEEK...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +10C TO +14C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80 BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW 5000
FEET...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP CIGS UP IN VFR TERRITORY.
THIS SAID..SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEMPORALLY
LOWER VSBY BELOW 5SM IN RAIN. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK THROUGH 15Z...WITH THIS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
BUF/IAG/ROC. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD THEN BECOME
SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
NEAR ROC. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHC SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES TO TAKE OVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE WILL BE STORM CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES.
CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES OVER FAR NE ND INTO NW TIP OF MN.
OVERALL GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE HOWEVER DID EXPAND
POPS EASTWARD REMAINDER OF MORNING INTO NW MN BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. KEEP THINKING OF POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE
AFTERNOON VCNTY SURFACE LOW FROM RUC ACROSS NW FA HOWEVER CIN SHOULD
BUILD/CONTINUE ACROSS REMAINDER OF FA IN WARM SECTOR AND WILL KEEP
DRY.
CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS FAR NORTH WITH CURRENT
STORM ACTIVITY AND AS A RESULT LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES AND INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY...GUSTING TO 30KT AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN NORTHER OF FORECAST TAF SITES. SLIGHT CHANCE
SOME DEVELOPMENT COULD TAKE PLACE VCNTY DVL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
652 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WITH IT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND RIDGING OVER
THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING HAS BEEN HELPING TO ADVECT DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA...AS SEEN IN GOES SOUNDER AND RAP PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANALYSES. AN AREA OF VALUES AROUND 0.8 INCHES IN MISSOURI HAS BEEN
STEADILY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO IOWA. THIS DRIER AIR MOVING IN HAS
RESULTED IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS
ALSO BROUGHT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
SOUNDINGS OF 19C AT MPX AND 16C AT GRB. NOTE THAT MPX MIXED UP TO
780MB YESTERDAY. THESE READINGS ARE HOLDING STEADY PER RAP ANALYSIS.
WITH A SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND THE WARMER AIR...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ONLY DROPPED INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. TO THE WEST OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDS
DOWN INTO TEXAS...HELPING TO PULL HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1-1.25 INCHES UP INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN MONTANA.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE
NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE
TO RIDGING THAT CONTINUES TO BUILT UP AHEAD OF IT. BY 00Z MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRETCH FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH INTO THE
DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE
REMAINS TIMING PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE TROUGH.
THE 09.00Z NAM IS BY FAR THE FASTEST...HAVING IT REACH ROCHESTER BY
00Z MONDAY. THE 09.00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SLOWER...
HAVING IT AT MOST IN EASTWARD PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z
MONDAY. PREFER TO STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS AND PAST MODEL RUNS WITH A
SLOWER TIMING...WHICH WOULD MATCH THE UPPER FLOW IDEA WITH RIDGING
BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO SLOW THINGS DOWN.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION...SINCE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT LOOKS TO KEEP THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN PLACE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
GREAT CONCERN THAT...DUE TO THE MIXING AND DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ALL PRECIPITATION MAY END UP BEING POST-FRONTAL. THIS IS
IN-LINE WITH THE 09.00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF. HAVE KEPT A LOW...20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...JUST
IN CASE MODELS SPEED UP. HOWEVER...LIKELY SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY. ONLY
OTHER CONCERN IS WINDS ON SUNDAY...DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SPEEDS COULD TRY TO GET UP CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. RIGHT NOW THINK THEY WILL STAY BELOW...BUT 25KT
WINDS LOOK LIKELY AT DODGE CENTER AND ROCHESTER. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...WITH DRYING SOILS AND A LOT OF SUN...ALONG WITH THE
BREEZE...DEEP MIXING LIKE WAS SEEN YESTERDAY SHOULD OCCUR BOTH TODAY
AND SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 16-18C SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT NICELY TOO. A
BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP LIFTING NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. AGAIN...THERE ARE SPEED ISSUES WITH
BOTH THIS TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND PRECEDING COLD FRONT...WITH THE
09.00Z NAM THE FASTEST AND THE 09.00Z GFS NOT FAR BEHIND. STILL HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAN A LITTLE SLOWER...CLOSER TO THE 09.00Z
UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF GIVEN THE NAM BEING FASTEST FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
FRONT. IN ANY EVENT...THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT NEARLY PARALLELING THE
UPPER FLOW...THE BEST DYNAMICAL FORCING IS LIKELY TO STAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GIVEN A DRY AND CAPPED AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO EITHER BE TIED RIGHT ON THE
FRONT OR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DYNAMICAL AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
GOING TO BE LIMITED BY A DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUMP UP TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF THE FRONT AT 12Z MONDAY TANK TO
0.5 INCH OR LESS. THEREFORE...BEST TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION IS GOING
TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP DRY IN THE MORNING. MOST PLACES
SHOULD BE DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LOOK TO SEE THE MOST PRECIP OVERALL...SINCE MODEL PROGGED
FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONGEST THERE AND SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET LOOKS TO OCCUR. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
80-100 IN THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...BEST
CHANCE OF THIS IS IN THE EVENING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA...WHEN MLCAPE IS IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE FRONT. BETTER
0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR IS
30-35KT. DECENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER 0-3KM
SHEAR SUGGESTS WIND IS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS ON MONDAY IN THE 13-16C RANGE AND INCREASING
SUN SHOULD BRING HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO PERHAPS EVEN MID 80S
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN OCCURS.
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO TURN ZONAL WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO HUDSON BAY. SUBSIDENCE...
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION ALL LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THANKS TO THE SWITCH TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS TANK TO 4-8C BY 12Z
TUESDAY...PERHAPS EVEN COOLER PER THE 09.00Z NAM. AS SUCH...EXPECT A
MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
09.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT...
ALONG WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...SHOWING THE ZONAL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT BEING TEMPORARY. BY THURSDAY...NEW TROUGHING IS SHOWN
TO DROP INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST CANADA...FORCING
RIDGING TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
DURING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE ZONAL AND RIDGING BUILDING UP
TOWARDS THE REGION. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AND COOLER
THAN OF LATE...DUE TO 850MB TEMPS 7-11C. THE WARM ADVECTION THEN
COMMENCES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY...SO HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION THEN LOOKS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE UP
TOWARDS 16-18C. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS CHANCES IN THE 20-30 RANGE
SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ENDS
UP NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. UPPER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FOR FRIDAY...YIELDING A DRY DAY. 850MB TEMPS MAY EVEN CLIMB
TOWARDS 20C FOR FRIDAY...SO DEFINITELY A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY
NEED A FURTHER BOOST UP OVER THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE 09.00Z
ECMWF VERIFIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PERSIST RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 20C.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
651 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WINDS TODAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TODAY...PLAN ON GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS KICKING UP LATER THIS
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
LOOKS LIKELY AT KRST WITH 20 TO 25KT EXPECTED AT KLSE. CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF DEEP MIXING. WAS CONTEMPLATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT...BUT CRITERIA WILL TECHNICALLY NOT BE MET. COULD STILL
BE A BUMPY TAKE OFF/FINAL APPROACH WITH WINDS AROUND 2KFT EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 35KT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
FIRST OFF...HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORDS.
RECORD HIGHS RANGE FROM 93-96 AT LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER.
SECONDLY...THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT THIS MONTH OF JUNE
COULD BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME INDICATORS
INCLUDE:
1. PER JUNE 5TH DROUGHT MONITOR...MUCH OF IOWA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI
ARE DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS IN TURN LIMITS
EVAPOTRANSPORATION FROM CROPS AND OTHER VEGETATION. IN FACT...THERE
ARE ALREADY REPORTS IN IOWA AND MISSOURI OF CURLING CORN LEAVES AND
SOYBEAN EMERGENCE PROBLEMS.
2. WARM AND BREEZY DAYS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO FURTHER DRY
OUT VEGETATION...WHICH ALSO IN TURN CAN MIX OUT MOISTURE IN THE AIR
RETURNING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
3. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO WESTERN TROUGHING AND STRONG EASTERN RIDGING...
BLOCKING THE AREA FROM SEEING MUCH CONVECTION.
4. MANY CFS MODEL RUNS SHOWING THE REST OF THE MONTH OF JUNE TO
AVERAGE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...HOPEFULLY THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
CAN GIVE OUR AREA A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...IT
APPEARS A DROUGHT MAY SET IN AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE
IN THE EXTENDED ARE VERY UNCERTAIN.
FOR REFERENCE...HERE ARE SOME LOWEST MONTHLY PRECIPITATION RECORDS.
CERTAINLY PLENTY OF TIME TO GET MORE PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE
DRY PATTERN...THESE MIGHT BE OF INTEREST.
LA CROSSE...CURRENTLY STAND AT 0.06 INCHES.
1. 0.37 INCHES IN 1910
2. 0.98 INCHES IN 1887
3. 1.33 INCHES IN 1989
ROCHESTER...CURRENTLY STAND AT 0.08 INCHES.
1. TRACE IN 1910
2. 0.94 INCHES IN 1985
3. 1.08 INCHES IN 1964
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
CLIMATE...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
452 PM EDT Sat Jun 9 2012
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
We have issued a Flash Flood Watch for Walton, Holmes, Washington,
and Bay Counties in the Florida Panhandle, valid until 19z Sunday.
The last several runs of the RAP have consistently indicated that
850mb moisture transport vectors will be increasing in magnitude
in the next few hours, and focusing into the aforementioned zones.
Earlier today, thunderstorm activity was focused near the coast to
the west of us (around PNS and MOB) - anchored in place near the
nose of low-level moisture transport maximum and in the coastal
convergence zone. Abundant moisture (analyzed and GOES-satellite
observed PWATS around 2.1-2.2") and high freezing levels and WBZ
heights should lead to highly efficient thunderstorms and rain
bands. If things continue to progress as they have all day, we may
start seeing heavier rain rates persist near or south of I-10 from
Panama City west in the 21-03z timeframe (next 6 hrs).
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Radar indicates sct shwrs and isold storms over land. It also shows
a large area of rain with embedded storms over waters will onshore
SW-NE later today into tonight. A few of these marine storms may
generate a brief waterspout or a tornado.
AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted in Nrn stream by
trough over Wrn states, ridge over Cntrl and Ern states and trough
across extreme Wrn Atlc. Srn stream highlighted by weak troughing
West Coast and Desert SW, ridging Srn Plains, trough/low over Wrn
Gulf and ridge over Ern states to extreme Wrn Atlc. Of particular
local concern is upper low that continues to spin over the upper TX
coast/Wrn Gulf of Mex. Ahead of this low, WAA/moisture transport
will increase thru the period as a very moist S/SW flow continues to
spread plume of deep layer Gulf moisture N/NE across the Gulf. The
12Z KTAE sounding showed the PW was 2.10 inches.
Low is forecast to open up into a short wave trough towards LWR MS
Valley beginning tonight while weak H5 impulse slowly meanders NEWD.
Both begin phasing with energy moving Ewd across the Nrn Plains Sun
night. System then inches slowly EWD into OH Valley and weakens
some further phasing with energy moving ewd over Mid MS Valley and
upper Midwest on Monday with trough axis from TN Valley to over our
extreme WRN zones by afternoon with an enhancement of deep onshore
flow downstream of system. On Tues, trough axis lifts NEWD with
axis across extreme NE Gulf states with deeper moisture lifting
accordingly before axis exits to adjacent Atlc before sundown.
AT LOWER LEVELS...
The local area remains between high centered off the Carolina coast
with ridge swd along Ern seaboard down to Cuba and a trough of low
pressure over the WRN Gulf. A quasi-stationary front extends W-E
from low TX/LA coast ESE across N FL. These features are acting
in concert to pull moisture rich tropical air northward into the
region. The low level flow/WAA will continue to strengthen is
association with above elongating upper low/trough and the short
term promises to be a washout.
The front is expected to lift WNW-ESE and N of FL/GA/AL line
overnight with increasing CWA in warm sector. Abundant moisture and
lift will continue to generate numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms, especially over the Panhandle and adjacent waters.
Beyond tonight, the warm front will pivot progressively NNE of the
area becoming increasingly absorbed by synoptic scale SLY flow. On
Monday into Tuesday, frontal remnant lifts into S/Cntrl GA and
weakens as it comes into contact with sagging SE High and POPs begin
to slowly decrease from S-N. Still, CWA remains on E or wet side of
upper trough axis with high PWATS. i.e. Panama City GFS model
sounding shows above 2 inches of PWAT until Mon morning and over
1.75 inches thru Tues. New HI RES guidance keeps us socked in thru
its total run of 36hrs. So high POPs and locally heavy rainfall a
good bet thru period. Mid-Level lapse rates/shear will not be
impressive during these periods. Nevertheless, with high CAPE values
and moist low boundary layer and enhanced low level shear near warm
front may support low level storm rotation. So we could see isolated
strong to severe storms with damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or
waterspout tonight into Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Tuesday)...
NAM run not available so forecast focused on GFS model.
Tonight...Very moist air aided by isentropic lift with PW well over
2 inches is forecast to push north across the region as the boundary
gradually lifts north as a warm front. The deep layer trough to the
west will drift slowly northeast and there will be some DPVA to
enhance lift as well. 70-50% NW-SE POP gradient. Widespread 1 to 2
inch rainfall totals are forecast thru sunrise. Highest rainfall
totals are expected to be south and west of Tallahassee. Because the
large area of rain is likely to be ongoing along and north of the
front, any supercells that develop will probably become quickly
elevated as they move inland, greatly reducing the tornado threat
inland. CWA will be monitored in case a flood watch is necessary.
Lows around 70.
Sunday...80-50% NW-SE POP gradient. We are still seeing a swell
component in the buoy data and there have been a couple of
fatalities in the surf this week. With the beach agencies continuing
to report hazardous conditions, a high risk of rip currents remains
possible. Highs mid-upper 80s.
Monday...60-30% N-SE POP gradient daytime, 50-30% at night. Highs 85
coast to 90 S/Cntrl Ga. Lows around 70 inland to mid 70s coast.
Tuesday...50-40% N-SE POP gradient. Highs upper 80s coast to 90
inland.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through next Saturday)...
The extended range forecast is based heavily on the ECMWF. POPs will
be a concern for the entirety of the long term as a frontal boundary
approaches the forecast area and then stalls out. This will bring
rainy conditions with a chance of thunderstorms each day.
&&
.MARINE...
The gradient is forecast to remain tight with local area in between
ridging along east coast and low over wrn gulf. this low is forecast
to build north and tighten local gradient. Winds and seas are
expected to reach exercise caution levels west of Apalachicola into
Sunday. A ridge of high pressure will build over the waters early
next week allowing winds and seas to return to more seasonable
levels. The onshore winds will veer to the west by Wednesday as a
front approaches from the north.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Blend of GFS/EURO AND UKMET show widespread 1 to 2.5
inches with isold 4 inches thru 24 hrs. Expect total event rainfall
totals to range from 2 to 4 inches areawide with locally higher
amounts possible. A widespread flooding event is not anticipated,
however urban areas may experience minor flooding over the next few
days. Still there is a possibility that locations especially along
the FL Panhandle could get multiple rounds of heavy rain where the
best threat of flooding is expected and this area will be closely
monitored.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions are likely across the area as a warm front lifts
northward and brings moist tropical conditions into the area. Rain
with some embedded thunder is expected to affect all TAF sites at
various points through the period. Brief reductions to IFR are
expected with any thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag criteria will not be met over the next week as relative
humidity values remain well above critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 88 73 90 72 / 70 70 40 50 40
Panama City 73 85 75 85 74 / 70 70 40 50 40
Dothan 71 85 72 86 71 / 70 80 50 60 40
Albany 71 86 71 87 71 / 70 70 60 60 50
Valdosta 70 88 71 90 71 / 60 60 50 50 30
Cross City 72 89 72 90 71 / 50 50 30 30 30
Apalachicola 73 85 76 85 75 / 70 70 30 40 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Central Walton-
Coastal Bay-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Walton-South Walton-
Washington.
High Risk Rip Currents through Sunday afternoon for coastal
Walton and coastal Bay Counties.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale Update...Lamers
Synopsis & Short Term...Block
Long Term...Harrigan/LV
Aviation...DVD
Marine...Block
Fire Weather...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.AVIATION...HEAVY CLOUD COVER EARLIER THIS MORNING HELD BACK
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND TCU JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS S
FL AT 17Z. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE ALSO BECOME LESS CONFIDENT OF
CONVECTION INITIATION PRIOR TO AROUND 18-19Z SO DELAYED VCTS IN
THE TAFS FOR THESE REASONS. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF THEM FOR THE
KTMB TERMINAL AS THE CELLS SHOULD BE WELL NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND COULD EVEN BE NORTH OF THE KMIA AND KOPF TERMINALS.
LIGHT FLOW HAS ALLOWED SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00-01Z THIS EVENING.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS AFTERNOON CONVECTION FLARING UP AGAIN WITH THE
ONSET OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AS WELL
SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
AVIATION...SOME -RA PSBL E COAST TERMINALS THRU 14Z BUT VFR CONDS
XPCTD. BUT BY 18Z...TSRA DVLPG IN THE INTERIOR OF S FLA WL MOV E AND
AFFECT THE E COAST TERMINALS ESPECIALLY FM KFLL TO KPBI. ONLY VCTS
IN ALL E COAST TAFS ATTM. CRRNT SFC WNDS CALM TO VRY LGT SE BCMG AFT
14Z SE 8-12 KTS ALL TERMINALS. AT KAPF...VFR THRU PD WITH ISOLD SHRA
INVOF KAPF BUT VCSH NOT IN TAFS ATTM. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DVLP AFT
16Z SHUD BE E OF TERMINAL REMAINDER OF PD. CRRNT WND E < 10 KTS
BCMG AFT 18Z SSW-W ARND 10 KTS AS W COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
AVIATION...SVR WX ON THE W COAST DELAYED THIS ISSUANCE. A LINE OF
WEAKENING SHRA/TSRA MOVG E ACRS THE INTERIOR OF S FLA WL BRING
SHRA TO THE E COAST TERMINALS THRU 14Z. SOME MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL.
AFT 14Z WDSPRD VFR CONDS XPCTD BUT BY 18Z...TSRA DVLPG IN THE
INTERIOR OF S FLA WL MOV E AND AFFECT THE E COAST TERMINALS. ONLY
VCTS IN TAFS ATTM. CRRNT SFC WNDS CALM TO VRY LGT SE BCMG AFT 14Z
SE 8-12 KTS ALL TERMINALS. AT KAPF...VFR THRU PD WITH ISOLD SHRA
INVOF KAPF THRU 12Z. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DVLP SHUD BE E OF TERMINAL
REMAINDER OF PD. CRRNT WND SE ARND 10 KTS BCMG AFT 18Z SSW-W ARND
10 KTS AS W COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING...
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING
A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT
ACROSS THE REGION. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH 8 AM...AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE GLOBAL MODELS QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS AREA OF
STORMS...AND THEN TREND SEEMS TO BE DOWN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL GET PUSHED TO
THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALSO PUSH EASTWARD FURTHER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH AND WASH OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE TODAY.
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING IN ITS
WAKE. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL STABILIZE
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER...PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY FORCE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS SET UP. KEPT HIGHER
POPS FOR THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING DUE TO THE SHOWERS MOVING
EAST. OTHERWISE...HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO COLLIDED AND LOW END CHANCE FOR
THE EAST AND WEST COASTS.
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA STRAITS WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH RISING HEIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. 500MB
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 591-592 DAM. THIS WILL IMPART
A TRYING TREND ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST...AND HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
105 TO 110F IN COLLIER COUNTY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND OPEN UP INTO A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. AS IT SLIDES TOWARDS FLORIDA ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL OFF
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO
MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
OVER ALL THE LOCAL WATERS. THE SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 3 FEET OR
LESS OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 88 76 87 / 30 30 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 89 77 88 / 30 30 10 10
MIAMI 78 90 77 89 / 30 30 10 10
NAPLES 77 91 76 92 / 20 30 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA, WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WITH WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT, MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS, WILL BRING HIGHER
HUMIDITY MONDAY, AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
FOREST COUNTY AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY PA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. RECENT SATELLITE DATA AND RAP MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING BAND OF POTENTIALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA, WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE FOR NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD.
PER BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT, LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS 6 TO 8
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL INDUCE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. AND ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING. HENCE
EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MONDAY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT CAN BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS SUNDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY MAY ALSO PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
CONCUR WITH BLEND OF RECENT SREF AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT THAT
PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR, THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WIND. HOWEVER, ITS POSSIBLE THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST EAST OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SO DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS JUNCTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DEFINITELY BE EAST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND REDEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERALLY VFR WEATHER SHOULD HOLD INTO EARLY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
MIDWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING A
DRYING TREND AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1224 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA, WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WITH WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT, MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS, WILL BRING HIGHER
HUMIDITY MONDAY, AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
FOREST COUNTY AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY PA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE DATA AND RAP MODEL OUTPUT.
RAP AND CONSENSUS OF SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW HIGH PRESSURE,
CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA, WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE FOR NO
MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. SUBSEQUENT
SURFACE WARMING WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO BE 4 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON, AND 6 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL, PER BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL INDUCE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING. HENCE EXPECT MONDAY ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TO BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY BRUSH
90 OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
GENERALLY WENT WITH GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES THAT FORECASTED LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UP TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL AND HIGHS FOR MOST
LOCALES NO WARMER THAN THE UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
RETURN DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL LONG TERM TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST AT...OR ABOVE NORMAL
USING TWEAKED HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE DUE TO NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A SHRA OR
TSRA INTO NORTHWESTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP
MENTION OUT OF NORTHERN TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE ON RESTRICTIONS AT
THOSE SITES IS RELATIVELY LOW. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
319 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
AREA AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING ON MONDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE EXPECTED TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT COMES THROUGH THE
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO END
EARLY ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE DETERMINING TIMING FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALSO SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT/TUE. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FCST
ARE INCREASING THE CHC OF RAIN FOR MON A BIT AND LOWERING TEMPS SOME
AS A RESULT.
QUIET WEATHER ALONG WITH VERY WARM AND INCREASING HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ONLY SLOWLY CRAWL TO THE EAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE
ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS
WILL HELP TO PREVENT ANY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. DEW POINTS
INCREASING TONIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT BREEZE REMAINING UP WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. THIS HEAD
START IN TEMPS ALONG WITH H850 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS C
WILL HELP TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ON SUN.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HAS CREPT INTO THE FCST WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING
OF THE GULF COAST UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO THE AREA. IT HAS BEEN
SHOWN TO MOVE IN DURING THE DAY ON MON...HOWEVER THE 00Z EURO NOW
SHOWS THE WAVE MOVING IN BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING
PCPN IN. ALL OF THE OTHER 12Z MODELS HAVE FOLLOWED CONTINUITY WITH
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND SHOW PCPN MOVING IN WITH THIS WAVE ON MON.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND
12Z MON WITH ALL OF THE MODELS...HOWEVER THE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
MAIN WAVE WILL BE DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN INDIANA STILL AT 12Z.
WE WILL HOLD ON TO A DRY FCST FOR NOW FOR SUN NIGHT WITH THIS IN
MIND.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND THEN EVEN MORE MON NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST. WE WILL SEE THE MAIN ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SRN
LOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MON. IT WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND WE ARE NOT SURE HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE ON
MON. IT DOES APPEAR THOUGH THAT WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUD COVER AND CHC
OF PCPN...SO WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT AS A RESULT. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...SO SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT LIKELY...EVEN WITH LI/S IN THE -4 TO -6C RANGE AND OVER 1000
J/KG OF CAPE.
WE WILL THEN SEE THE FRONT MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON AND MORE
SO MON NIGHT...INCREASING THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER. IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST THREAT OF STORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING ON MON. PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN...TO KEEP SOME CONVECTION GOING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD MON NIGHT WITH THE LIMITED DIURNAL
INSTABILITY LEFT. SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SUFFICIENT
SHEAR WILL LAG THE FRONT A LITTLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER WITH NO RAINFALL FORESEEN BEYOND TUESDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND TAKING THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ONLY OUR FAR SE
COUNTIES DESERVE MENTION OF LOW POPS DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE EVERYONE WILL LIKELY HAVE DRIED OUT BY THAT
POINT. COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT 850 MB
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW THE 9C-10C RANGE...SO WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THAT SHOULD STILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 80F BY THURSDAY.
AFTER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING SLOW BUILDING OF
ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN TRANSITION IS WELL SUPPORTED BY A VARIETY OF MODELS. THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB PLOT FROM 00Z REVEALS GOOD MEMBER SUPPORT
OF THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST...NAMELY HEIGHTS RISING BACK INTO THE
585 DM TO 590 DM RANGE FOR OUR REGION. THE 12Z GFS IS NOT QUITE AS
BULLISH BUT STILL RAISES HEIGHTS INTO THE LOW 580S. IN FACT...THE
GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT JET CORE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NW
BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD DIG INTO THE DESERT SW. THIS MAY END UP
REINFORCING THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. I WOULD EXPECT HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND
TO RETURN INTO THE MID 80S AND PERHAPS WARMER.
WITH WEAK FLOW AT THE SFC...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER. I DON`T
SEE ANY FEATURES OF INTEREST THAT WOULD BRING A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON WAS TO BUMP UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT (MOST SITES GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS) AND ALSO TO ALTER THE
WIND DIRECTION A BIT FOR AZO AND BTL. WE NOTICED A MESOSCALE RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE GIVEN THE MORE WNW
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AT AZO AND BTL VS. SSW OVER THE LAKE (THIS
IS ALSO SHOWN NICELY BY THE HRRR MODEL). THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO KEEP
WINDS DIVERGENT ALONG THE COAST AND THEREFORE A CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENTS TO THOSE TAFS (ADJUSTED UP BY 40-50
DEGREES). ASIDE FROM THE BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS
LITTLE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
WINDS ARE APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF
PENTWATER...HOWEVER WE BELIEVE THAT THE WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE
ANYMORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WAVES AT THE BUOY OFFSHORE OF
KLDM ARE HOLDING AROUND 3 FEET ALSO. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH MONDAY.
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE WINDS AND
WAVES COMPARED TO LAND AREAS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP AROUND 10 TO 20
KNOTS THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NORTH.
HAZE IS STILL VERY POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR HYDROLOGY INTERESTS WILL BE THE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RICH
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO BECOME LIKELY
DURING THAT PERIOD. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE WAVE
ON MONDAY AND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ARE EACH EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. BASIN QPF AVERAGES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE
GENERALLY UP TO 0.75 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
134 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
IT WILL BY PARTLY CLOUDY AND VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 EXPECTED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL COME MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINING JUST HOW WARM
IT WILL BECOME PARTICULARLY SUNDAY/MONDAY AND ALSO TO ASSESS
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS MONDAY.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ALREADY REACH WELL INTO THE 80S (EXCEPT A BIT
COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE) WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
WAA AND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER OUR REGION.
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TIED TO THE WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA
AS SUGGESTED BY 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM SIM Z GUIDANCE. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE
THAT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY JUST CLIP AREAS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM PENTWATER TO MOP THIS MORNING BUT POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS
VERY LOW SO WE WENT WITH A DRY FCST.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS/MAV GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A TYPICAL COOL BIAS
AND WE ARE GOING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
HUMIDITY WILL RAMP UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS DEW PTS
RISE INTO THE 60S. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTS TO RAMP
UP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY AS SB CAPES POTENTIALLY REACH 1000-2000 J/KG BY MONDAY
AFTN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BY LATE MON AFTN
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NW FCST AREA WHEN INSTABILITY WILL PEAK ALONG
WITH FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR RAMPING
UP TO AROUND 35 KTS OVER OUR NW COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL SVR WX THREAT MON AFTN LOOKS LOW DUE TO LACK OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND THE COLD LAKE WATERS WHICH THE CONVECTION WILL
HAVE TO TRAVERSE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS
THE TIMING OF THE RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE NAM
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO.
KEPT THE CHANCE POPS GOING BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
LIKELY IF THE GFS AND EURO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. EXPECT THERE TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS...MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO DROPPED
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON WAS TO BUMP UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT (MOST SITES GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS) AND ALSO TO ALTER THE
WIND DIRECTION A BIT FOR AZO AND BTL. WE NOTICED A MESOSCALE RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE GIVEN THE MORE WNW
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AT AZO AND BTL VS. SSW OVER THE LAKE (THIS
IS ALSO SHOWN NICELY BY THE HRRR MODEL). THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO KEEP
WINDS DIVERGENT ALONG THE COAST AND THEREFORE A CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENTS TO THOSE TAFS (ADJUSTED UP BY 40-50
DEGREES). ASIDE FROM THE BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS
LITTLE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15
TO 20 KTS THIS AFTN BUT STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THIS WILL
CAUSE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS NORTH OF KMKG WHERE 2 TO 4 FOOTERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WAVES OF AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET
SOUTH OF MKG. WARM AIR MOVING OVER COOL WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
SHOULD KEEP WAVES FROM GETTING ANY HIGHER. FOG/HAZE WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGHER MOISTURE MOVES IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY WX. THE NEXT GOOD CHC OF
RAIN WILL NOT COME UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MON NIGHT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE FRONT NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH
DRY WX RETURNING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
113 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KTS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD THEN SEE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS
TEMPS DROP. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHARP SWITCH TO NW WINDS...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCE IS
OVER NW NEB.
BY MORNING WITH THE FRONT THROUGH...COULD SEE SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH RH VALUES NEAR THE
SURFACE. THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...CIGS HAVE BEEN SMALL IN
AREA...BUT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND
BREEZY NW WINDS...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SCT025 CIGS WHICH MAY BE
UNDER DONE. LATER FORECAST WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...HOWEVER ANY
LOWER CIG THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
UPDATE...
GAVE 1ST PERIOD TEMPS A BUMP EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST
WHERE IT APPEARS COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE COLD FRONT
WHICH JUST PASSED RAPID CITY AT AROUND 12Z. HRRR AND RAP DONT
HAVE THE FRONT PUNCHING THROUGH KRAP. WITH H700 MB TEMPS AROUND
14C TO 15C THIS AFTN...UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 SHOULD OPERATE
ACROSS SWRN NEB. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE NCNTL WITH MID
90S.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012/
DISCUSSION...
LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL MAKE IT/S WAY EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A DRY LINE WILL MIX EAST THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO
EXTREME NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND BECOMES STATIONARY. WINDS WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE DRY LINE AND SFC LOW
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WINDS
MAY BECOME EAST AS THE COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH AND BECOMES
STATIONARY. THE HEAT WILL BE ON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INVOF AND WEST OF THE DRY LINE...WHERE HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AND
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE DAY TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND HIGHS MAY BE HELD IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO
THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE...BUT WINDS APPEAR THEY WILL BE LIGHT
AND NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE THE NEXT CONCERN. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
NAM MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING T-STORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA /LATEST GEM
REGIONAL ALSO SUPPORTS THIS IDEA/ INVOF OF A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES. THIS
AREA APPEARS QUITE PRIME FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH NOSE OF
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDING WITH BACKED EASTERLY SFC
FLOW AND POOLING MOISTURE. THIS POOLING MOISTURE LEADS TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER 2500 TO
3500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO INCREASES DURING THE
EVENING...AS WELL AS STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DESPITE A
STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...IT APPEARS THE
CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY DURING THE EVENING FOR STORM
INITIATION DUE TOO CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
/TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. THE ABOVE FACTORS WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS...AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF CONVECTION INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA IS IN DOUBT...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED STORM
INVOF OF THE DRY LINE. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE NEAR THE SFC
LOW...WHICH SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE ADDED A
LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED MENTION IN THESE AREAS. INTERESTING THAT
THE LATEST RUN OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM MODEL ACTUALLY SHOW
STORMS ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING.
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH SUCH WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE AREA BEING REMOVED FROM THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT RESIDING THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS WILL BRING SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83 DURING
THE EVENING. THIS WILL ACCOUNT FOR ANY STORM FIRING ON THE DRY
LINE HOLDING TOGETHER.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING. COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES. OTHERWISE VERY DRY AIR IS INDICATED
TO SWEEP EAST OFF THE ROCKIES...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MID TO LATE
WEEK...AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AM HESITANT TO GO MUCH OVER
SLIGHT FOR RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME...AS MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO
BE OVER DOING RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE OUTER PERIODS. OTHERWISE...WARM
WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER... TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY WILL BRING
LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO CRITICAL LEVELS BELOW
15 PERCENT IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE (ZONE 204) AND THE FRENCHMAN
BASIN (ZONE 210). CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIND WILL BE
AROUND 15 MPH IN THE FRENCHMAN BASIN WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BUT
LESS THAN 25 MPH. REPORTS AROUND THE AREA INDICATE THAT RECENT
RAIN HAS REDUCED THE RISK OF EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. THEREFORE...
THOUGH THINGS IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
108 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR ROCHESTER SOUTHEAST THROUGH
BINGHAMTON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
SYRACUSE, ROME, ONEONTA, AND MONTECELLO. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ELMIRA, TOWANDA, AND SCRANTON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS. MONDAY LOOKS WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WITH MOSTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER...OUTSIDE OF WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP POPS AND TEMPS FOR MORNING TRENDS. FRONT
LIES FROM EAST OF ROC TO BGM TO MSV AND TEMPERATURES TO THE NE ARE
RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECASTED HANGING IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE SHOWERS ALONG AND NE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. TO THE SE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED AND THERE
HAS BEEN MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
70S. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP TRENDS WHICH
KEEPS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THE CENTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN THIS MORNING. THE 06Z NAM GIVES US
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 750 AND 1000 BUT HAS TOO MUCH MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS SO THE LOW END OF THAT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.
THE DEW POINTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN IN THE 50S WITH SOME INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN. ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AND MOST LIKELY
IN THE WARMER SW ZONES THIS AFTN/EVE. CHANCE SHOWERS REMAINS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW THE OLD SFC BNDRY LINGERING OVER THE ERN ZONES INTO
MON DESPITE THE RDGG ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF
CONV SHWRS AND ISLTD TRWS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE ERN ZONES.
OTRW...RDG LINE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THRU THE PD ALLOWING A SFC TROF
AND SRN STREAM WV TO APRCH FOR TUE. MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE SYSTEM
TO BE WELL SUPPLIED WITH MOISTURE AS IT LFTS NWRD OUT OF THE GULF.
DVLPG UA JET BY TUES AHD OF THE SFC COLD FNT WILL HELP WRING OUT
THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON TUE. LUCKILY...SYSTEM SEEMS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST THRU THE SHRT TERM PD...WITH GFS FCSTD PWS
OF BETTER THAN 1.50 INCHES.
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THE PD...ESP SUN AND MON WITH TEMPS
PUSHING 90F IN THE LWR ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN AND WRN ZONES. ATTM
IT APPEARS WE WILL BE WELL BLO ANY HEAT FLAG THRESHOLDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PD BEGINS AS A COLD FNT IS PUSHING THRU THE FCST AREA. INITIAL
TIMING AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS IS GOOD...THEN THE GFS DVLPS A
WV ALONG THE FNT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...DELAYING THE EWRD
PROGRESS ON WED. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME SHWRS AND TRWS TO LINGER
OVER THE ERN ZONES INTO THU. ECMWF INDICATES SOME TROFINESS OVER
WRN NEW ENG AS WELL...SO BEST BET FCST IS TO CONT SOME CHANCE POPS
THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PD...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OVER THE EAST
NEARER THE STALLED FNT OR SFC TROF. ALSO...BOTH MODELS SHOW ONLY
WEAK RDGG SFC AND ALOFT THRU THE PD...SO SOME CONV PSBL AT ALMOST
ANY TIME.
DFRNCS IN THE SFC PTRN DID MAKE SOME DFRNC IN THE FCSTD TEMPS FOR
THE PD. DECIDED TO START WITH HPC GUID FOR TEMPS...THEN BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS BASED GUID TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY
...AND TO BETTER COMPROMISE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE TIMES OF EXCEPTION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RACE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING AND SLIDE ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN
PA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CIGS LOWERING TO BETWEEN FL050-100.
POCKETS OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS DURING THE 10Z-15Z PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
WAVE OVERCAST CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TO SCT-BKN AFT 16Z.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND POOLING MOISTURE ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND NORTH
CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE THREAT DURING MAINLY THE 18Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH WITH A SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE SUGGESTED BY
OUR COMPUTER MODELS TO DROP INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE AFTER DARK AND THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VCNTY OF KELM-KBGM-KAVP. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A
PROB FORECAST AFT 00Z TONIGHT...BUT DO HAVE MENTION OF A RISK OF
TSRA ACTIVITY AFFECTING TERMINAL OPS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT...CHC MVFR IN ISOLD-SCT TSRA
SUN/MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT VLY FOG PSBL EACH MRNG.
TUE...VFR GIVING WAY TO MVFR IN SCT TSRA
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
302 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL ND...WITH SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL SD AND WESTERN NEB.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALBERTA...WITH
STRONG JET WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM FROM THE OREGON COAST TO
WESTERN WY AND EASTERN MT. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET...CROSSING
NORTH CENTRAL WY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. BRISK NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE 70S OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO
THE MID 90S OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER
TONIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWESTERN SD. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL
DECREASE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER IN THIS AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD. CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 3000 J/KG ARE
PROGGED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING WITH SHEAR INCREASING
DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SD
AS MAIN COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA AND SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN. SHORT RANGE MODELS DISAGREE
SOME ON POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF WINDS OVERNIGHT. NAM AND RUC ARE
STRONGEST WITH THE WINDS...SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER THE RAP AREA AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WEST CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE. WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPPER
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
PLEASANTLY COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR MOST AREAS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR TSTMS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH
MID WEEK. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE WRN CONUS. THIS MAY LEAD TO
INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTMS...WITH TEMPS STAYING QUITE WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE AFTN. SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS LATE THIS AFTN...WITH
ACTIVITY SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS OF NWRN SD THIS EVENING.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN HEAVIER
ACTIVITY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG NW
WINDS. GUSTS OVER 40KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NWRN SD...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLKHLS INCLUDING THE KRAP TERMINAL.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
BUTTE-CUSTER CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO
PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN MEADE CO
PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
225 PM PDT Sat Jun 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The wet, cool and breezy weather for today will be replaced to
drier and more seasonal weather for Sunday and into early next
week. Under westerly flow aloft, a series of weak weather systems
will bring a few afternoon and evening showers Tuesday and
Wednesday. A stronger weather system is expected by the end of the
week with a better chance of showers, meanwhile temperatures will
stay near normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: The pesky cutoff low responsible for the cool
and wet weather today, will slowly exit the region over the next
12-24 hours. Currently this feature is circulating over northwest
Montana, while a wet northerly flow drops in from BC. This was
depicted well in the 295k surface with strong isentropic lift
through this afternoon and tapering off this evening. Under the
west northwest flow, showers will linger in the Idaho panhandle as
supported by the orographic flow overnight. Based the pops and
weather mostly on the HRRR models in the near term and leaned to a
NAM/GFS blend into Sunday. The low level westerly flow has mixed
the surface with occasional gusty winds in the rain-free area of
the lower Columbia basin, to the Palouse and LC valley. The cross
Cascade surface pressure gradients have been increasing and this will
enhance the wind speeds in the lee of the Cascades into the
evening hours, especially in the Wenatchee area with gusts near
the wind advisory criteria. The showers and winds will be tapering
off overnight as low center creeps further east and the dry slot
in the northwest flow moves over central Washington. A chance of
showers will redevelop over northeast Washington and north Idaho
by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will moderate on Sunday, warming
about 5-10 degrees over today, but still remain below normal for
early June. /rfox.
Sunday night through Tuesday...Through this portion of the
forecast high pressure will track through the region followed by
zonal flow as the next upstream weather disturbance begins to
effect the region.
The axis of the ridge of high pressure will be on the coast by
Sunday evening, then track east across the Inland Northwest Sunday
night, before flattening on Monday. The models are also very
similar in showing a weak short wave disturbance moving through the
ridge. There is little in the way of moisture associated with this
wave and the likely results will be some alto-cumulus
development. The aforementioned wave will increase winds slightly
out of the southwest Monday with gusts around 10-15 mph. Temperatures
will rise to near seasonal normals.
Late Monday afternoon through Tuesday the ridge will flatten
resulting in westerly zonal flow and increasing Pacific moisture.
A few weak waves will pass through the region resulting in a few
showers over the Cascades Monday night and increasing across the
northern Washington mountains and Idaho Panhandle mountains
Tuesday. These showers will need a little help with orographics
and will be tied to the terrain. A slightly stronger wave is expected
late Tuesday afternoon. In addition both the GFS and NAM are
indicating surface based cape and negative LI`s stretching from
just east of republic south to the Blue mountains. With the
stronger wave acting as a kicker showers will be a little heavier
and more widespread across the eastern half of the forecast area.
The instability will be strong enough to support embedded thunderstorms
and these were kept in the forecast and the area expanded slightly
south. /Tobin
Tuesday night through Saturday...Models are in good agreement
concerning the long wave pattern in the extended with a
progressive west to northwest flow with a series of weak systems
passing across southern British Columbia, Northern Washington, and
the Idaho Panhandle. The trajectory of these waves will keep a
threat of showers in the forecast especially over the northern
mountains where the best lift and instability will lie with each
passing wave. GFS and ECMWF also show enough instability such that
isolated thunderstorms may develop over the Northeast Washington
Mountains and Idaho Panhandle. Models do show some
timing/strength differences with each wave so confidence in the
exact details is low. Given prevailing west- northwest flow there
is higher confidence of dry conditions throughout the extended
period in the Wenatchee and Moses Lake areas. Temperatures are
expected to be near to slightly below normal through the period. /JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A swath of precipitation has dropped south from BC and
is bringing a steady cold rain east of a line from KOMK-KMWH. The
KGEG-KCOE corridor can expect MVFR CIGS with rain through at least
02z with locally gusty southwest winds. Areas of MVFR CIGs will be
near KPUW with some light rain. The mountains north and east of
KGEG will experience even lower CIGS with mountains obscured and
more moderate rain. Northwest winds will be on the increase in
KEAT with dry conditions and gusts to 35kt. Locally gusty winds,
VFR conditions with a slight chance of rain will be found in KMWH
and KLWS. Rain will exit the region after 06z with gradual
clearing from the northwest overnight into Sunday morning, while a
chance of showers will linger in the Panhandle mountains. /rfox.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 43 66 46 72 52 73 / 50 10 0 0 10 40
Coeur d`Alene 44 63 46 71 50 72 / 30 10 10 10 10 40
Pullman 43 63 44 71 48 71 / 80 10 0 0 10 40
Lewiston 47 71 50 78 54 78 / 40 10 0 0 10 40
Colville 45 73 46 76 51 77 / 30 10 10 10 20 40
Sandpoint 44 61 43 70 46 69 / 50 30 10 10 20 50
Kellogg 41 56 44 68 48 69 / 80 50 10 10 20 50
Moses Lake 47 76 49 80 57 81 / 10 0 0 0 10 20
Wenatchee 49 75 52 79 59 79 / 10 0 0 0 10 10
Omak 44 77 46 79 53 80 / 10 10 0 10 10 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Waterville Plateau-
Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WITH IT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND RIDGING OVER
THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING HAS BEEN HELPING TO ADVECT DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA...AS SEEN IN GOES SOUNDER AND RAP PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANALYSES. AN AREA OF VALUES AROUND 0.8 INCHES IN MISSOURI HAS BEEN
STEADILY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO IOWA. THIS DRIER AIR MOVING IN HAS
RESULTED IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS
ALSO BROUGHT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
SOUNDINGS OF 19C AT MPX AND 16C AT GRB. NOTE THAT MPX MIXED UP TO
780MB YESTERDAY. THESE READINGS ARE HOLDING STEADY PER RAP ANALYSIS.
WITH A SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND THE WARMER AIR...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ONLY DROPPED INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. TO THE WEST OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDS
DOWN INTO TEXAS...HELPING TO PULL HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1-1.25 INCHES UP INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN MONTANA.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE
NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE
TO RIDGING THAT CONTINUES TO BUILT UP AHEAD OF IT. BY 00Z MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRETCH FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH INTO THE
DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE
REMAINS TIMING PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE TROUGH.
THE 09.00Z NAM IS BY FAR THE FASTEST...HAVING IT REACH ROCHESTER BY
00Z MONDAY. THE 09.00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SLOWER...
HAVING IT AT MOST IN EASTWARD PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z
MONDAY. PREFER TO STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS AND PAST MODEL RUNS WITH A
SLOWER TIMING...WHICH WOULD MATCH THE UPPER FLOW IDEA WITH RIDGING
BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO SLOW THINGS DOWN.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION...SINCE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT LOOKS TO KEEP THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN PLACE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
GREAT CONCERN THAT...DUE TO THE MIXING AND DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ALL PRECIPITATION MAY END UP BEING POST-FRONTAL. THIS IS
IN-LINE WITH THE 09.00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF. HAVE KEPT A LOW...20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...JUST
IN CASE MODELS SPEED UP. HOWEVER...LIKELY SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY. ONLY
OTHER CONCERN IS WINDS ON SUNDAY...DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SPEEDS COULD TRY TO GET UP CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. RIGHT NOW THINK THEY WILL STAY BELOW...BUT 25KT
WINDS LOOK LIKELY AT DODGE CENTER AND ROCHESTER. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...WITH DRYING SOILS AND A LOT OF SUN...ALONG WITH THE
BREEZE...DEEP MIXING LIKE WAS SEEN YESTERDAY SHOULD OCCUR BOTH TODAY
AND SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 16-18C SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT NICELY TOO. A
BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP LIFTING NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. AGAIN...THERE ARE SPEED ISSUES WITH
BOTH THIS TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND PRECEDING COLD FRONT...WITH THE
09.00Z NAM THE FASTEST AND THE 09.00Z GFS NOT FAR BEHIND. STILL HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAN A LITTLE SLOWER...CLOSER TO THE 09.00Z
UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF GIVEN THE NAM BEING FASTEST FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
FRONT. IN ANY EVENT...THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT NEARLY PARALLELING THE
UPPER FLOW...THE BEST DYNAMICAL FORCING IS LIKELY TO STAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GIVEN A DRY AND CAPPED AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO EITHER BE TIED RIGHT ON THE
FRONT OR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DYNAMICAL AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
GOING TO BE LIMITED BY A DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUMP UP TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF THE FRONT AT 12Z MONDAY TANK TO
0.5 INCH OR LESS. THEREFORE...BEST TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION IS GOING
TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP DRY IN THE MORNING. MOST PLACES
SHOULD BE DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LOOK TO SEE THE MOST PRECIP OVERALL...SINCE MODEL PROGGED
FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONGEST THERE AND SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET LOOKS TO OCCUR. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
80-100 IN THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...BEST
CHANCE OF THIS IS IN THE EVENING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA...WHEN MLCAPE IS IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE FRONT. BETTER
0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR IS
30-35KT. DECENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER 0-3KM
SHEAR SUGGESTS WIND IS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS ON MONDAY IN THE 13-16C RANGE AND INCREASING
SUN SHOULD BRING HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO PERHAPS EVEN MID 80S
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN OCCURS.
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO TURN ZONAL WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO HUDSON BAY. SUBSIDENCE...
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION ALL LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THANKS TO THE SWITCH TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS TANK TO 4-8C BY 12Z
TUESDAY...PERHAPS EVEN COOLER PER THE 09.00Z NAM. AS SUCH...EXPECT A
MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
09.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT...
ALONG WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...SHOWING THE ZONAL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT BEING TEMPORARY. BY THURSDAY...NEW TROUGHING IS SHOWN
TO DROP INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST CANADA...FORCING
RIDGING TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
DURING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE ZONAL AND RIDGING BUILDING UP
TOWARDS THE REGION. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AND COOLER
THAN OF LATE...DUE TO 850MB TEMPS 7-11C. THE WARM ADVECTION THEN
COMMENCES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY...SO HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION THEN LOOKS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE UP
TOWARDS 16-18C. FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS CHANCES IN THE 20-30 RANGE
SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ENDS
UP NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. UPPER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FOR FRIDAY...YIELDING A DRY DAY. 850MB TEMPS MAY EVEN CLIMB
TOWARDS 20C FOR FRIDAY...SO DEFINITELY A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY
NEED A FURTHER BOOST UP OVER THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE 09.00Z
ECMWF VERIFIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PERSIST RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 20C.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS THE ONLY
CONCERN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY IN PLACE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH DECOULING OF THE WINDS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO SETTLE DOWN TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND LOOSE THE GUSTS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF INTO
CANADA...A SECOND LOW WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE
INTO MINNESOTA. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING THE WINDS UP BY MID
MORNING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED CATEGORY WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEED WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KRST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
FIRST OFF...HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORDS.
RECORD HIGHS RANGE FROM 93-96 AT LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER.
SECONDLY...THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT THIS MONTH OF JUNE
COULD BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME INDICATORS
INCLUDE:
1. PER JUNE 5TH DROUGHT MONITOR...MUCH OF IOWA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI
ARE DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS IN TURN LIMITS
EVAPOTRANSPORATION FROM CROPS AND OTHER VEGETATION. IN FACT...THERE
ARE ALREADY REPORTS IN IOWA AND MISSOURI OF CURLING CORN LEAVES AND
SOYBEAN EMERGENCE PROBLEMS.
2. WARM AND BREEZY DAYS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO FURTHER DRY
OUT VEGETATION...WHICH ALSO IN TURN CAN MIX OUT MOISTURE IN THE AIR
RETURNING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
3. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO WESTERN TROUGHING AND STRONG EASTERN RIDGING...
BLOCKING THE AREA FROM SEEING MUCH CONVECTION.
4. MANY CFS MODEL RUNS SHOWING THE REST OF THE MONTH OF JUNE TO
AVERAGE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...HOPEFULLY THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
CAN GIVE OUR AREA A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...IT
APPEARS A DROUGHT MAY SET IN AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE
IN THE EXTENDED ARE VERY UNCERTAIN.
FOR REFERENCE...HERE ARE SOME LOWEST MONTHLY PRECIPITATION RECORDS.
CERTAINLY PLENTY OF TIME TO GET MORE PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE
DRY PATTERN...THESE MIGHT BE OF INTEREST.
LA CROSSE...CURRENTLY STAND AT 0.06 INCHES.
1. 0.37 INCHES IN 1910
2. 0.98 INCHES IN 1887
3. 1.33 INCHES IN 1989
ROCHESTER...CURRENTLY STAND AT 0.08 INCHES.
1. TRACE IN 1910
2. 0.94 INCHES IN 1985
3. 1.08 INCHES IN 1964
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...AJ