Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/08/12


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1036 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012 .UPDATE... LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED WSW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE STATE WITH A SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS TRIGGERED A FAIRLY LARGE BATCH OF STORMS THAT HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD ESE INTO THE TAMPA MARINE AREA THIS EVENING. THE LATEST 23Z HRRR RUN DOES INITIALIZE WELL WITH THIS BATCH OF STORMS OFF OF TAMPA`S COAST AND GENERALLY SHOWS IT CONTINUING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE LOCALLY RUN WRF...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT BEST SOLUTION HANDLING THIS GULF ACTIVITY INDICATES A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERING THESE DIFFERENCES...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS INTO THE NIGHT AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. SLIGHTLY UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. 85/AG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012/ AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. KEPT VCSH THROUGH 08/01Z AT ALL EASTERN TERMINALS EXCEPT KPBI. THEN...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT VCTS BY 08/14Z. FOR KPBI...KEPT VCSH OVERNIGHT...SWITCHING TO VCTS BY 08/14Z. FOR KAPF...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND VCTS BEGINNING AT 08/14Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012/ .ONE MORE DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BEFORE MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER RETURNS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND... SHORT TERM... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SHORT WAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA ON FRIDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST AND THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ALONG WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED POPS FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS TONIGHT...WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEE SCATTERED POPS THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING DOWN TO ISOLATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POPS ON FRIDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY RANGE OVER THE AREAS NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY...WHILE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR ALLEY THE POPS WILL BE IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD GET BACK TO MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS OVER THE CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO GET BACK TO MORE OF A SUMMER TIME CONDITIONS. HIGHS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND AROUND 90 INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS. LONG TERM... THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE HIGHEST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AS THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WEAKENS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA BACK INTO A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND SHIFT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF POPS BACK TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. MARINE... THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER ALL THE LOCAL WATERS...AS THEY SWING FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 76 90 75 88 / 40 60 40 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 78 87 / 40 60 40 40 MIAMI 77 91 77 89 / 40 50 30 40 NAPLES 77 89 75 88 / 40 60 40 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG AVIATION/RADAR...17/ERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
143 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .AVIATION...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT 24 HRS. DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS ALL TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MENTION VCSH MOST TAFS OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO SWITCH TO SE ACROSS ERN TERMINALS AND WILL EXPECT ALL OF THEM TO REMAIN SE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DECREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. KAPF SHOULD REMAIN OUT THE SW AT ARND 13 KTS, BUT BECOME SE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 8-10 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL ON THURSDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/ UPDATE... A SHORT WAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING GENERATING SOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA. THIS SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS TO MOVE EAST AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED POPS OVER THE CWA FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THIS MORNING ARE IN LOWER TO MID 80S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA...HIGHS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHS AROUND 90 OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AND EAST COASTAL AREAS FOR TODAY. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ARE STILL COOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 KNOTS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG OVER THE CWA TODAY WITH HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CWA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. UPDATE...54/BNB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/ AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BRIEF MVFR- IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING CELLS. AFTER 00Z, SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST COAST AFTER 14Z. AT KAPF, EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WSW BY 16Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/ DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NEARLY IDENTICAL. HAVING STATED THAT, THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS TYPICAL MESOSCALE BIAS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER POPS FROM DAY TO DAY. ONE INTERESTING NOTE TOO IS THAT THE HRRR WHICH IS A NORMALLY VERY USEFUL SHORT TERM MODEL HAS APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED BADLY THIS EVENING AND SHOWS A LARGE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE W CST JUST NORTH OF APF AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE OKEE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GOFMEX AT THIS TIME, THIS SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FACTORS OF THAT TYPE OF AN EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THEREFORE DO NOT PLACE MUCH EMPHASIS ON ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY. THERE IS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF THE COUNTRY AT THIS TIME AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK KEEPING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE FL STRAITS. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FAVOR A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND A CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR S FL WITH CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION IN THE AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ABOUT THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IN THE MAIN THREE MODELS IS ON FRIDAY WHERE THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEE BY LATE FRIDAY AND THE NAM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. GIVE THESE DIFFERENCES, NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT COVERAGE. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MODELS INDICATE THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE OVER S FL ON SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SCT POPS. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO APPARENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE GFS MOVES THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD TEND TO GIVE S FL A QUITE DIFFERENT WX PATTERN WITH THE GFS PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRYING PATTERN. SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCT ACTIVITY UNTIL THERE IS A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF A SHORT FUSED WIND SURGE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL HEIGHTS. THE FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 76 87 74 88 / 30 40 40 50 FORT LAUDERDALE 79 88 76 90 / 20 40 40 50 MIAMI 79 89 76 90 / 20 40 40 50 NAPLES 76 86 75 86 / 20 30 30 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
1038 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .UPDATE... A SHORT WAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING GENERATING SOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA. THIS SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS TO MOVE EAST AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED POPS OVER THE CWA FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THIS MORNING ARE IN LOWER TO MID 80S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA...HIGHS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHS AROUND 90 OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AND EAST COASTAL AREAS FOR TODAY. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ARE STILL COOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 KNOTS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG OVER THE CWA TODAY WITH HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CWA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. && .UPDATE...54/BNB .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/ AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BRIEF MVFR- IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING CELLS. AFTER 00Z, SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST COAST AFTER 14Z. AT KAPF, EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WSW BY 16Z. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/ DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NEARLY IDENTICAL. HAVING STATED THAT, THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS TYPICAL MESOSCALE BIAS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER POPS FROM DAY TO DAY. ONE INTERESTING NOTE TOO IS THAT THE HRRR WHICH IS A NORMALLY VERY USEFUL SHORT TERM MODEL HAS APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED BADLY THIS EVENING AND SHOWS A LARGE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE W CST JUST NORTH OF APF AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE OKEE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GOFMEX AT THIS TIME, THIS SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FACTORS OF THAT TYPE OF AN EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THEREFORE DO NOT PLACE MUCH EMPHASIS ON ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY. THERE IS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF THE COUNTRY AT THIS TIME AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK KEEPING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE FL STRAITS. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FAVOR A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND A CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR S FL WITH CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION IN THE AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ABOUT THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IN THE MAIN THREE MODELS IS ON FRIDAY WHERE THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEE BY LATE FRIDAY AND THE NAM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. GIVE THESE DIFFERENCES, NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT COVERAGE. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MODELS INDICATE THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE OVER S FL ON SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SCT POPS. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO APPARENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE GFS MOVES THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD TEND TO GIVE S FL A QUITE DIFFERENT WX PATTERN WITH THE GFS PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRYING PATTERN. SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCT ACTIVITY UNTIL THERE IS A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF A SHORT FUSED WIND SURGE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL HEIGHTS. THE FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 88 76 87 74 / 50 30 40 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 88 76 / 40 20 40 40 MIAMI 89 79 89 76 / 40 20 40 40 NAPLES 87 76 86 75 / 50 20 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB AVIATION/RADAR...14/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
813 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BRIEF MVFR- IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING CELLS. AFTER 00Z, SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST COAST AFTER 14Z. AT KAPF, EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WSW BY 16Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/ DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NEARLY IDENTICAL. HAVING STATED THAT, THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS TYPICAL MESOSCALE BIAS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER POPS FROM DAY TO DAY. ONE INTERESTING NOTE TOO IS THAT THE HRRR WHICH IS A NORMALLY VERY USEFUL SHORT TERM MODEL HAS APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED BADLY THIS EVENING AND SHOWS A LARGE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE W CST JUST NORTH OF APF AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE OKEE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GOFMEX AT THIS TIME, THIS SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FACTORS OF THAT TYPE OF AN EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THEREFORE DO NOT PLACE MUCH EMPHASIS ON ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY. THERE IS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF THE COUNTRY AT THIS TIME AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK KEEPING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE FL STRAITS. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FAVOR A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND A CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR S FL WITH CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION IN THE AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ABOUT THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IN THE MAIN THREE MODELS IS ON FRIDAY WHERE THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEE BY LATE FRIDAY AND THE NAM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. GIVE THESE DIFFERENCES, NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT COVERAGE. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MODELS INDICATE THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE OVER S FL ON SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SCT POPS. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO APPARENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE GFS MOVES THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD TEND TO GIVE S FL A QUITE DIFFERENT WX PATTERN WITH THE GFS PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRYING PATTERN. SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCT ACTIVITY UNTIL THERE IS A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF A SHORT FUSED WIND SURGE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL HEIGHTS. THE FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 87 74 / 30 30 40 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 88 76 / 20 20 40 40 MIAMI 88 79 89 76 / 20 20 40 40 NAPLES 86 76 86 75 / 20 20 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...14/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NEARLY IDENTICAL. HAVING STATED THAT, THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS TYPICAL MESOSCALE BIAS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER POPS FROM DAY TO DAY. ONE INTERESTING NOTE TOO IS THAT THE HRRR WHICH IS A NORMALLY VERY USEFUL SHORT TERM MODEL HAS APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED BADLY THIS EVENING AND SHOWS A LARGE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE W CST JUST NORTH OF APF AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE OKEE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GOFMEX AT THIS TIME, THIS SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FACTORS OF THAT TYPE OF AN EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THEREFORE DO NOT PLACE MUCH EMPHASIS ON ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY. THERE IS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF THE COUNTRY AT THIS TIME AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK KEEPING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE FL STRAITS. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FAVOR A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND A CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR S FL WITH CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION IN THE AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ABOUT THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IN THE MAIN THREE MODELS IS ON FRIDAY WHERE THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEE BY LATE FRIDAY AND THE NAM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. GIVE THESE DIFFERENCES, NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT COVERAGE. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MODELS INDICATE THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE OVER S FL ON SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SCT POPS. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO APPARENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE GFS MOVES THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD TEND TO GIVE S FL A QUITE DIFFERENT WX PATTERN WITH THE GFS PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRYING PATTERN. SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCT ACTIVITY UNTIL THERE IS A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. && .MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF A SHORT FUSED WIND SURGE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL HEIGHTS. THE FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 87 74 / 30 30 40 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 88 76 / 20 20 40 40 MIAMI 88 79 89 76 / 20 20 40 40 NAPLES 86 76 86 75 / 20 20 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB AVIATION/RADAR...14/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1245 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012 ...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH IA LOCATED ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE EASTERN TROUGH. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY EXISTS ACRS CENTRAL IA WHERE 850MB CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE PCPN HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE AWAY FROM THE DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE EAST. THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS ISOLD CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO A SIGNIFICANT SECTION OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AS 850MB RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO EASTERN IA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE WILL SEE INTERMITTENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR A FEW POPCORN STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...GENERATED BY RIPPLES IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MID-LEVEL RIPPLES RIDING OVER THE APPROACHING RIDGE. PINNING DOWN THESE SUBTLE FEATURES IS VERY DIFFICULT...HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY RESULTING STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SO HAVE TRENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. AT ANY RATE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD COINCIDENT WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. HAVE ONCE AGAIN NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THE MOS GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING THE DEGREE OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT CLIMATOLOGY/MODEL BIASES. LATER IN THE WEEKEND THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING AS A LARGE 500 MB GYRE MOVES ROUGHLY EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA OR SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING AROUND IT LIKE SPOKES ON A WHEEL. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREIN LIES THE ISSUE AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL AFFECT ALL FORECAST FIELDS MOST NOTABLY TEMPERATURES AND POPS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST...THE EC MUCH SLOWER...AND THE GEM IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ALLBLEND POPULATION FOR THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE GFS DOES SEEM TOO FAST WITH ITS FRONTAL PROGRESSION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK AND CONFINED THEM TO OUR NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO REMOVED POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE SLOW EC HAS THE FRONT AND PRECIP CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY THEN. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WE CONTINUE TO SEE A MORE ZONAL 500 MB PATTERN ON THE HORIZON...WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF TO MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL QUIET WEATHER. && .AVIATION...06/18Z NON-DESCRIPT RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS IOWA AND TRANSITIONAL AREAS OF WEAK LIFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST INTERESTING FOR TAF LOCATIONS. WE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP AT ANY TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS. WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREAS FROM 21Z TO 00Z THEN TONIGHT BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL PERIOD OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BE LIGHT. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...COGIL LONG TERM...LEE AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
637 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012 ...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH IA LOCATED ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE EASTERN TROUGH. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY EXISTS ACRS CENTRAL IA WHERE 850MB CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE PCPN HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE AWAY FROM THE DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE EAST. THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS ISOLD CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO A SIGNIFICANT SECTION OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AS 850MB RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO EASTERN IA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE WILL SEE INTERMITTENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR A FEW POPCORN STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...GENERATED BY RIPPLES IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MID-LEVEL RIPPLES RIDING OVER THE APPROACHING RIDGE. PINNING DOWN THESE SUBTLE FEATURES IS VERY DIFFICULT...HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY RESULTING STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SO HAVE TRENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. AT ANY RATE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD COINCIDENT WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. HAVE ONCE AGAIN NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THE MOS GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING THE DEGREE OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT CLIMATOLOGY/MODEL BIASES. LATER IN THE WEEKEND THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING AS A LARGE 500 MB GYRE MOVES ROUGHLY EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA OR SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING AROUND IT LIKE SPOKES ON A WHEEL. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREIN LIES THE ISSUE AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL AFFECT ALL FORECAST FIELDS MOST NOTABLY TEMPERATURES AND POPS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST...THE EC MUCH SLOWER...AND THE GEM IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ALLBLEND POPULATION FOR THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE GFS DOES SEEM TOO FAST WITH ITS FRONTAL PROGRESSION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK AND CONFINED THEM TO OUR NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO REMOVED POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE SLOW EC HAS THE FRONT AND PRECIP CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY THEN. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WE CONTINUE TO SEE A MORE ZONAL 500 MB PATTERN ON THE HORIZON...WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF TO MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL QUIET WEATHER. && .AVIATION...06/12Z NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINTAIN DURING THE MORNING BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME AS FOCUS SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME. VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY EAST OF AN KLWD-KDSM-KMCW LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON BUT WILL RELAX BY EVENING AS MIXING SUBSIDES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH ANY THREAT OF PCPN CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN IOWA. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...COGIL LONG TERM...LEE AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
326 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH IA LOCATED ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE EASTERN TROUGH. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY EXISTS ACRS CENTRAL IA WHERE 850MB CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE PCPN HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE AWAY FROM THE DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE EAST. THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS ISOLD CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO A SIGNIFICANT SECTION OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AS 850MB RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO EASTERN IA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE WILL SEE INTERMITTENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR A FEW POPCORN STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...GENERATED BY RIPPLES IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MID-LEVEL RIPPLES RIDING OVER THE APPROACHING RIDGE. PINNING DOWN THESE SUBTLE FEATURES IS VERY DIFFICULT...HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY RESULTING STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SO HAVE TRENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. AT ANY RATE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD COINCIDENT WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. HAVE ONCE AGAIN NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THE MOS GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING THE DEGREE OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT CLIMATOLOGY/MODEL BIASES. LATER IN THE WEEKEND THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING AS A LARGE 500 MB GYRE MOVES ROUGHLY EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA OR SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING AROUND IT LIKE SPOKES ON A WHEEL. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE...WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREIN LIES THE ISSUE AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL AFFECT ALL FORECAST FIELDS MOST NOTABLY TEMPERATURES AND POPS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST...THE EC MUCH SLOWER...AND THE GEM IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ALLBLEND POPULATION FOR THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE GFS DOES SEEM TOO FAST WITH ITS FRONTAL PROGRESSION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK AND CONFINED THEM TO OUR NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO REMOVED POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE SLOW EC HAS THE FRONT AND PRECIP CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY THEN. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WE CONTINUE TO SEE A MORE ZONAL 500 MB PATTERN ON THE HORIZON...WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF TO MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL QUIET WEATHER. && .AVIATION...06/06Z WEAK WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING. EAST WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN NEAR 12KT WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS THIS EVENING. THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH EXPECT THAT AMBIENT WIND WILL HANG ON TO ABOUT 10-11KTS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED IN ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS AND VFR CIGS...BKN080 TO BKN110 TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AS FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL FOLLOW INTO NORTHWEST IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT KFOD AFT 18Z BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCE DUE TO COVERAGE AND LOW CHANCES. AREA MAY SEE SOME HZ BETWEEN 11 AND 14Z PRIOR TO DIURNAL WARMING. WINDS WILL AGAIN MIX TO 9 TO 11KTS BY 16Z WITH MINIMAL GUSTS ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...COGIL LONG TERM...LEE AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1122 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED POPS FOR A NEW BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING THE MTNS OF ME/NH AROUND 09Z. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR MODEL. HAVE ADJUSTED DEW POINTS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE ENTERING THE REGION. REST OF THE GRIDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. PREV DISC... SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIE OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ZONES BUT POPS LOOKING A BIT HIGH SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD JUST SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. WILL AGAIN SEE LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/... STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. WILL SEE TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WITH ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE CLEARING WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRES SLIDES THRU OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IS SANDWICHED BY WEAK UPR LVL AND SFC IMPULSES TO PROVIDE A SLGT CHC TO MAYBE A CHC OF -SHRA JUST BARELY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW -SHRA MAY JUST REACH INTO OUR FCST AREA. STRONG UPR LVL AND SFC RIDGE BUILD IN WITH DRY AND WARMING WX FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN UPR LVL TROF AND APPROACHING SLOW MOVING FNT BRING A CHC OF SHRA TUESDAY NGT THRU THURSDAY. GENERALLY USED GFS40...HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NGT. FOR REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST USED GMOS...EXCEPT USED A BLEND OF GFS40 AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT....IMPROVING TO VFR ON FRIDAY. AREAS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN KEEPS WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
715 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012 .AVIATION... //DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AS WILL THE SCT CU FIELD. DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL BE RELATIVELY MEAGER TOMORROW WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE AND BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * NONE. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 331 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012 SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT LATEST RAP BASED MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS ARE HIGHLIGHTING MUCAPES OF APPROXIMATELY 200-500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS IS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM THE 12Z DTX RAOB BUT IN LOCKSTEP WITH 07.12Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. FORECAST SOUNDING DIAGNOSIS SHOWS SUBTLE 600-400MB WARMING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...IN TOW OF THE LATE MORNING SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THIS VERY SUBTLE WARMING APPEARS ENOUGH TO KNOCK OUT ANY STEEPER LAPSE RATES RESIDING IN THE MIDLEVELS. SO...WHILE AN ISO-SCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE HERE AT PEAK HEATING (SEE SAGINAW BAY CONVECTIVE FIELD)...OVERALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY MOVING FORWARD/NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE SAME CONVECTIVE VIGOR AS YESTERDAY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK MIDLEVEL WARMING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTREMELY LOW. EXPECT A NICE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN INTO THE 50S ALL AREAS. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING LARGE SCALE PATTERN DRIVING CONDITIONS IN RECENT DAYS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO REORIENT EASTWARD BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. LONGWAVE ADJUSTMENT WILL BE ANCHORED BY A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON CARVING INTO THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE PERIPHERY ALIGNED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WHILE THIS WILL BRIEFLY DAMPEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT FIELD AS THE ENTIRE RIDGE AXIS EASES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY....THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPER/STRENGTHENING WESTERLY GRADIENT ON THE NORTH PERIPHERY OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN THIS WELL MIXED PROFILE INTO 800 MB TEMPERATURES RESIDING IN THE 10C RANGE...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER 80S. WEAK MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPILLING EAST- NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WILL SCRAPE THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB TOWARD THE END OF THE HEATING CYCLE. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS 300-400 J/KG OF MUCAPE EMERGES IN A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. AFOREMENTIONED STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CREST THE UPPER RIDGE ARCING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY COMMENCE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION RESIDING THROUGH THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY...BEFORE EVENTUALLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST ARRAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDING FIRM IN PROJECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HOLD TO OUR NORTH AS IT ALIGNS EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PRIMARY BUT WEAKENING INSTABILITY GRADIENT. A LOWER PROBABILITY CERTAINLY EXISTS GIVEN THE SETUP FOR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT TO CLIP AT LEAST THE TRI-CITIES/ THUMB SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING...WORTHY OF A SMALL POP. REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY INCREMENTALLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REAMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ASSUMING NEARLY FULL INSOLATION AND A STANDARD MIXING PROFILE...THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. DEEP WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. EXPANSIVE HEIGHT FALL REGION TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...LOOSELY ORGANIZED CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MEANDERING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BEGIN THE GRADUAL TREK NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREE ON WHAT DEGREE THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING LARGER SCALE WESTERN TROUGH. 12Z GFS LOCKS ON MORE AGGRESSIVELY...DRIVING AN ATTENDANT PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. A ECMWF/CANADIAN CONSENSUS ALLOWS FOR MORE SEPARATION...LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO A CONSIDERABLY LESS DEEP UPSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH...LEAVING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TUESDAY PERIOD ATTENDANT WITH THE ARRIVING DEEPER HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC MONDAY SHOULD A THICKER HIGH CLOUD CANOPY EMERGE EARLY...ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH TO THE WARM LAYER BY THIS POINT STILL SUPPORTS HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 80S. MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK WITH NORTHWEST ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OFF OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AS THIS HIGH SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL MODERATE BY THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...AND WHILE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME OVER LAKE HURON. THIS INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....AGD SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM....MR MARINE.......CB YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
331 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT BLOCKING UPR LO OVER NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS. SHRTWV ROTATING SWWD THRU QUEBEC IN CYC NE FLOW ALF ARND THE CLOSED LO AND ACCOMPANYING AREA OF MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON WV IMAGE AND SPC DIAGNOSED AREA OF KINX AOA 30 IS CAUSING SOME CLDS/A FEW -SHRA OVER ERN LK SUP INTO ERN UPR MI INTO EARLY AFTN. ANOTHER STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS UNDER NNW FLOW IS SINKING SSEWD THRU MN...BRINGING SOME SCT SHRA/TS TO MAINLY NE MN UNDER STEEPER H85-5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB/AREA OF HIER KINX NEAR 35 SHOWN ON SPC ANALYSIS/AREA OF H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH MN SHRTWV AS DIAGNOSED BY MAJORITY OF MODELS. A FEW -SHRA ON THE ERN EDGE OF THIS AREA HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR WRN CWA IWD. BTWN THESE TWO AREAS OF -SHRA...SFC/H85 HI PRES EXTENDING FM NW ONTARIO THRU CNTRL LK SUP/UPR MI AND INTO NE WI AS WELL AS AXIS OF DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB /KINX 7/ IS BRINGING MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WX. TNGT...AFT ANY LINGERING DIURNAL -SHRA OVER THE W END EARLY THIS EVNG...EXPECT A TRANQUIL NGT WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/ SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING SFC-H85 RDG AXIS OVER UPR MI. WITH MOCLR SKIES/LGT WINDS/FCST PWAT 0.60-0.75 INCH ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NGT AND DEWPTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID/UPR 30S THIS AFTN...EXPECT A STEEP FALL OF TEMP TNGT BLO BULK OF GUIDANCE AND TOWARD READINGS AS LO AS THE 30S OVER THE INTERIOR THAT WERE REPORTED THIS MRNG. THU...UNDER RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS WL BRING A DRY DAY TO THE CWA WITH SOME DIURNAL CU INLAND FM LK BREEZES THAT FORM WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVHD. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT ARND 13C...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 AS 500MB LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...STRONG OMEGA BLOCKING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LESS AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. STRONG 500MB LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING ALBERTA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING EASTWARD TO CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER MI WILL BE LOCATED ON THE DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG 500MB LOW BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP A RIDGING PATTERN OVER UPPER MI ALOFT...WITH CORRESPONDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN...SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEGIN IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING TO TRAVEL JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS WAA AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...EXPECT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO RISE TO 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS FAR AS CONVECTION...DESPITE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE CWA...GFS MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE /500-1000 J/KG/ AND 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE FAVORABLE OVER UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AND FRONTOGENESIS COULD STILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BEING SAID...INCREASED POP VALUES TO LIKELY OVER AREAS OF BEST FORCING...WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN MODERATE 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES /30-40KTS/ AND A MORE FAVORABLE LOOKING CAPE PROFILE WITH THIS LAST MODEL RUN...NEXT UPDATES MAY DECIDE TO GO LIKELY TSRA AS WELL. REGARDLESS...THINK MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. GFS BULLSEYES WELL OVER 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI...THOUGH REST OF MODELS SHOW MUCH LOWER VALUES WITH THE MAIN PRECIP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A COMBINATION OF THE NAM/ECMWF AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TO DERIVE QPF. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL THEN EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST SATURDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF RAIN FAR EAST DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REGAIN CONTROL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT RESULTING LAKE BREEZES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. AS LAKE BREEZES CONVERGE IN THE AFTERNOON...WARM UNSTABLE AIR INTERIOR WEST COULD RISE AND SPAWN A FEW TSRA/SHRA. EXACT SET UP AND LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSRA NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CAPE VALUES /800-1100 J/KG ML CAPE/ AND HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND. MEANWHILE...STRONG 500MB LOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF TSRA/SHRA DURING PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. AFTER PASSAGE...DRIER SOUTHERLY AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO UPPER MI...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WI BORDER TO RISE TO THE UPPER 80S. TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOLER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...500MB LOW WILL HAVE REACHED LAKE WINNIPEG...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT PROTRUDING AHEAD OF IT AND STRETCHING DOWN INTO TEXAS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER UPPER MI WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD...SO WILL THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT...TRAVERSING UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ ARE A GOOD INDICATOR THAT TSRA ACTIVITY COULD VERY WELL BE PRESENT. 1000-2000 J/KG ML CAPE VALUES ALONG WITH A FAT CAPE PROFILE ALSO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SINCE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY INCONSISTENT ON EXACT TIMING FOR THE PRECIP REACHING AND EXITING UPPER MI...WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME...WITH BEST FORCING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXITING EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT...BOTH EXTENDING FROM THE SAME 500MB LOW /NOW OVER JAMES BAY/...WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN TRAVERSING UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 WITH HI PRES DOMINATING LAKE SUP THRU THU NGT...EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS. ALTHOUGH A PAIR OF LO PRES SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI INTO SAT AND AGAIN ON MON...THE HI STABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATERS WILL HOLD WIND SPEEDS TO NO HIER THAN 20 KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT BLOCKING UPR LO OVER NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS. SHRTWV ROTATING SWWD THRU QUEBEC IN CYC NE FLOW ALF ARND THE CLOSED LO AND ACCOMPANYING AREA OF MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON WV IMAGE AND SPC DIAGNOSED AREA OF KINX AOA 30 IS CAUSING SOME CLDS/A FEW -SHRA OVER ERN LK SUP INTO ERN UPR MI INTO EARLY AFTN. ANOTHER STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS UNDER NNW FLOW IS SINKING SSEWD THRU MN...BRINGING SOME SCT SHRA/TS TO MAINLY NE MN UNDER STEEPER H85-5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB/AREA OF HIER KINX NEAR 35 SHOWN ON SPC ANALYSIS/AREA OF H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH MN SHRTWV AS DIAGNOSED BY MAJORITY OF MODELS. A FEW -SHRA ON THE ERN EDGE OF THIS AREA HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR WRN CWA IWD. BTWN THESE TWO AREAS OF -SHRA...SFC/H85 HI PRES EXTENDING FM NW ONTARIO THRU CNTRL LK SUP/UPR MI AND INTO NE WI AS WELL AS AXIS OF DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB /KINX 7/ IS BRINGING MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WX. REST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME DIURNAL CLDS ARE LIKELY TO DVLP OVER THE CNTRL CWA WITH CONVECTIVE TEMP ON THE GRB RAOB ARND 70...EXPECT ANY -SHRA TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR ERN CWA UNDER THE AREA OF MID LVL MSTR/HIER KINX AND THE W NEAR THE WI BORDER INLAND FM LK BREEZE PENETRATION. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE PENETRATION OF THE LK SUP BREEZE/ ACCOMPANYING STABILIZATION INTO THE ERN CWA WITH NW FLOW TO THE E OF HI PRES RDG AXIS IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS ANY -SHRA THERE BY MID AFTN. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NE CONUS AND ANOTHER OVER THE PAC NW. BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS...UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NRN PLAINS...WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS ATTEMPTING TO ROUND THE RIDGE. THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR THE FORECAST TODAY...AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVING SW THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. IT/S PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER ONTARIO AND A FEW RADAR RETURNS OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT THE CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED AND DIMINISHING SOME. THIS WAVE AND MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SW ACROSS ERN CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS IT DROPS S INTO NRN LOWER MI. THIS MOISTURE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE INITIAL CU OVER THE ERN CWA THAT DEVELOPS TOWARDS MID-DAY. BUT THE MORE NRLY AND STRONGER PUSH OF LK SUPERIOR BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. SECOND WAVE FARTHER NE IN WRN QUEBEC IS PROGGED TO DROP SW AND TOWARDS LK HURON AND SHOULDN/T HAVE ANY EFFECT ON THE CWA. THINKING IS THESE TWO SHORTWAVES WILL HELP PUSH SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS DROPPING SSE THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE W OF THE LAND CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...WHICH ALL KEEP THE DEEP H700-300 Q-VECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER ERN MN AND JUST BRUSHING FAR WRN LK SUPERIOR. HI-RES MODELS SHOWING THE LK SUPERIOR BREEZE BEING THE DOMINATE LK BREEZE TODAY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER NRLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC OVER THE ERN CWA FROM A SLIGHTLY FARTHER W SFC HIGH POSITION OVER LK SUPERIOR. THIS LK BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT. DEEPEST MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO IRON COUNTY AREA...BUT SOME LIGHT RETURN FLOW OVER THE FAR WEST IN THE LLVLS WILL TRY TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THIS LLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK LK BREEZE CONV MAY BE THE BEST SHOT FOR SEEING SHOWERS TODAY. HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION SEEM TO STRUGGLE WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WILL CAP AT ISOLATED LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT. AS FOR THUNDER...MODELS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF 200-400 J/KG PEAKING AROUND IRON COUNTY. THERE WERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER WRN UPPER MI YEST...BUT WITH A LITTLE LESS INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED FARTHER SW...WILL LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND USED THOSE AS A STARTING POINT. MIXING TO H800-775 OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AWAY FROM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK SUPERIOR. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 500MB CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE OMEGA BLOCK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN A PACIFIC TROUGH SWINGS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA. ON TUESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...FINALLY REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LINGERING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. 850-500MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THINKING ANY SIGNIFICANT UL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH ALOFT SEEMS TO BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION. AS FOR MOISTURE...THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB LOW MOVING INTO MANITOBA WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY...WITH PWATS AS MUCH AS 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WITH SURFACE HIGH...LAKE BREEZES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR COULD END UP KICKING OFF A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPE SEEMS TO ONLY BE AS MUCH AS 300 J/KG...HOWEVER MLCAPE IS MORE ON THE ORDER OF 500-600 J/KG. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES FOR THURSDAY. FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY MORE INTERESTING...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MANITOBA SLIDING JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ALOFT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AS TO THE PATTERN. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN JUST A SMIDGE FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND IS A LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS MODEST...AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS MLCAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 600-1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR AND A THINNER SHAPE TO THE SOUNDING PROFILE/SKINNY CAPE/ EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IF ANY FROM FRIDAYS STORMS. SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUMP MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING EASTERN MANITOBA BY SUNDAY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING ON SATURDAY COULD KNOCK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH SFC CAPE AROUND 800 J/KG AND MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY WITH LINGERING UL SUPPORT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND PWATS STILL 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS 850 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 18-20C RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT NEAR 90F INLAND. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE MODELS BEGIN TO REALLY DISAGREE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE 500MB LOW/SURFACE LOWS. THIS WILL BRING DOWN CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF SPECIFICS ON PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS/GEM HAVE A MORE COMPACT SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BRINGING A MORE DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE GEM/GFS SEEM TO WANT TO BRING THE FRONT IN A LITTLE BIT EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. CANNOT JUSTIFY GOING ABOVE CHANCE POPS FOR THESE TIME FRAMES...LARGELY DUE TO THE VAST UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATER SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVERHEAD...WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE APPRECIABLE AND COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...GIVEN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TUESDAY WE DEAL WITH THE 500MB LOW PASSING FROM MANITOBA AND TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WITH LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS THE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME REMAINING SHOWERS EARLY ON...HOWEVER EXPECT THESE TO END AS THE LOW SLOWLY HEADS NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS HANDLING OF THIS LOW GIVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS DAY OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 VERY QUIET MARINE PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THU NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS LK SUPERIOR ON FRI AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE S...BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KTS. LOOK FOR A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE TO DOMINATE ON SAT. A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE WILL DEVELOP ON SUN UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HI RETREATING TO THE E AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KC SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...MCB AVIATION...KC MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NNW FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA AND RDG IN THE PLAINS. UPR MI IS LOCATED ON THE CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS WITHIN THE NNW FLOW...WITH ACCOMPANYING N-S ORIENTED H85 TROF STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO ACRS THE WRN CWA INTO WI BTWN ACYC OVER NW MN AND ANOTHER IN ONTARIO JUST NE OF LK SUP. SINCE THIS TROF IS ALSO UNDER AN AXIS OF HIER MID LVL MSTR/STEEPER LAPSE RATES...THERE HAD BEEN A FEW -SHRA INTO THIS MRNG UNDER AREA OF PERSISTENT H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC BEST HIGHLIGHTED BY RECENT ECMWF RUNS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MORE SCT -SHRA HAVE DVLPD OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE. MORE NMRS CU ARE ALSO PRESENT OVER THE E WHERE A BAND OF MID CLD DRIFTED WWD INTO THAT AREA FM ONTARIO. BUT RATHER STABLE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB SO FAR E OF UPR JET AXIS WL LIKELY INHIBIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY SHRA THAT MIGHT DVLP IN THIS AREA BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING WANES. TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT ANY -SHRA THAT DVLP THIS AFTN TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVNG AS BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HINTS UPR JET AXIS WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE W AND RESULT IN WEAKENING H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/INCRSG UPR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LK SUP CLOSER TO MORE WELL DEFINED SHRTWV STRADDLING THE NW ONTARIO/MN BORDER. WITH SFC HI PRES/LGT WINDS OVER UPR MI TNGT...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL AT LEAST TO OR A FEW DEGREES BLO LO TEMPS THE READINGS THIS MRNG AS PWAT IS FCST TO BE A BIT LOWER AT 6/12Z THAN THIS MRNG. SINCE SOME FOG DID FORM THIS MRNG WHERE RA HAD FALLEN YDAY AFTN... OPTED TO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHC OF SOME -SHRA THIS AFTN AND CONDITIONS FOR FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT. WED...12Z GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING TRACK OF SHRTWV NOW IN NW ONTARIO ARPCHG NRN MN. THE NAM INDICATES THIS DISTURBANCE/ACCOMPANYING H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC WL TRACK A BIT FARTHER TO THE E THAN THE GFS/CNDN...WHICH SHOW FOCUS OF FORCING HOLDING MAINLY IN NW WI/MN. GIVEN THE UPR BLOCK OVER SE CANADA AND SHRTWVS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY SHIFTING WWD THRU QUEBEC...FEEL THE FARTHER W GFS/CNDN ARE PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK. IN FACT...THE CNDN MODEL HINTS SOME -SHRA MIGHT IMPACT THE FAR E ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE DISTURBANCES NOW IN QUEBEC. SO TENDED TO RESTRICT POPS FOR INSTABILITY AFTN -SHRA ON WED TO THE FAR W AND THE E...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE CNTRL UNDER ACYC AXIS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012 OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS UPPER MI WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIRLY BENIGN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO BE PREDOMINANT IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DIURNAL CONVECTION DUE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. BEST FORCING REMAINS IN THE INTERIOR WEST OF UPPER MI...SO IF ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING THIS IDEA AS WELL. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THESE SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY SET UP IF THEY DO HAPPEN...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES. SUPPORT PREVIOUS FORECASTS DECISION TO LEAVE OUT MENTION TSRA DUE TO LOW CAPE VALUES /LESS THAN 300 J/KG/ AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES /5 TO 6 C/KM/. LOOKING AT TOTAL TOTALS...STRONG STABLE LAYER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL AS UPPER MI WILL SUPPRESS NEEDED LIFT FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN UPPER MI FRIDAY...AND TRAVERSING THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND INCOMING WAA /AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/ WILL CAUSE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENTS FOR TIMING OF THIS PRECIP WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...AND THE GFS AND GEM BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL NOT ENTER WESTERN UPPER MI UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXIT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT QVECTOR CONV AND WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR COULD MEAN THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND PICK UP SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON /BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS SUSTAINED/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER AIR TO PULL INTO UPPER MI...WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 15C ON SATURDAY...AND 20+C ON SUNDAY. AFTER THE EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA MOVING SE/ COULD ALLOW FOR LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAIN ON THE EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR PLACEMENT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCES. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE SHRA/TSRA THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. A LITTLE BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY MAY YIELD ISOLD CONVECTION ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN...BUT AT THIS POINT...THE POTENTIAL OF PCPN ALONG THE BOUNDARIES NEAR KIWD/KSAW IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012 VERY QUIET MARINE PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THU NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS LK SUPERIOR ON FRI...BRINGING A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 20 KTS OVER AT LEAST THE EAST HALF. LOOK FOR A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE TO DOMINATE ON SAT. A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON SUN UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HI RETREATING TO THE E AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012 UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF BELOW... .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENT... WITH A PROGRESSIVELY NARROWING SHARP RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA... BRACKETED BY A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONTINENT AND A SECOND UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GENERAL THEME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO BE DISSOLVE TO SOME EXTENT AS IT BROADENS AND PUSHES EAST WHILE DISPLACING THE EASTERN TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL WORK THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST DURING THAT TIME... AND EVENTUALLY EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY... BRINGING OUR CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL.. THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE COURSE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE SPEED WITH WHICH IS DOES SO IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN A FAIR DEGREE OF DIFFERENCE IN THE GFS... ECMWF... AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS HOLDING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS MUCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF... WHICH RIDES IT NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY FAIRLY QUICKLY. FOR NOW... WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST... WHICH MEANS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER PERIODS BEYOND MONDAY IS FAIRLY LOW. TEND TO PREFER THE SOMEWHAT FASTER FRONTAL ARRIVAL ADVERTISED BY THE GFS... NAM... AND SREF ON SUNDAY IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF GIVEN THE STRONG JET CURRENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE OUT WEST AND THE SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST WHICH IS ALREADY STARTING TO APPEAR. FOR TONIGHT... MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWFA... WITH THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUING TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SHIFT NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT... BUT WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME ACTIVITY BEFORE THAT OCCURS WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG REMAINING IN PLACE AND SOME HIGHER RH VALUES NEAR THE ELEVATED LFC FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN NEAR THAT AREA OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... SO KEPT SOME POPS IN FOR THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE THE WARM SECTOR REALLY WORK INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP WORKING ACROSS THE AREA... WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER... WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GETTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED EAST BY THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE EVOLUTION AND EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM... GFS... AND ECMWF. HOWEVER... ALL SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DEGREE TO OUR NORTHWEST... MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN CANADA BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH ITS ATTENDANCE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT... THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TO OUR NORTH... BUT GIVEN TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WE SHOULD HAVE AMPLE MLCAPE IN PLACE WITH VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG... AS WELL AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WE WORK INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIMITED HOWEVER... GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT SO FAR TO OUR NORTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST... AT THIS POINT... THAT OUR MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE DETAILS SHOULD CERTAINLY COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING... WITH PERHAPS SOME SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE DEGREE TO WHICH THAT OCCURS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON WHETHER REALITY WINDS UP MORE SIMILAR TO THE GFS OR ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS... WHICH IS SLOWER TO KICK THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST... WOULD CERTAINLY SUGGEST LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS WELL OUT OF THE AREA AT THAT POINT... AND WOULD HAVE COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER FOR US. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY... DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT RATHER THAN INCLUDE A CHANCE MENTION FOR SOMETHING ON DAY SIX. DID INCLUDE A MENTION FROM LATER WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY BY THURSDAY... AS THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS THAT WE WOULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION BY THAT POINT. && .AVIATION.../00Z TAF DISCUSSION/ WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE PERIOD. ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE TWIN METRO AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK OR EARLY AFTERNOON. TSRA CHANCES EXPECTED TO WADE DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WEATHER CONDITONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. CONDITONS COULD LOWER BRIEFLY BELOW 3 MILES IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY. KMSP...DONT HAVE A GOOD FEEL OR HANDLE ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MOST OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY IF IT OCCURS JUST STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES. NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS OR PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. .SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1042 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012 .UPDATE...PUSHED BACK SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST CWA AS THESE CELLS ARE TAKING THEIR TIME MAKING THEIR WAY EAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/ AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD MAKE ITS WAY EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD DIE OUT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL REALIZE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL WEATHER SITUATION TONIGHT/TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK A LOT LIKE THE PAST 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BEING A BIT WINDIER. 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD 1020MB HIGH OVER THE IA/MO/IL BORDER AREA...WHILE OFF TO THE WEST A 1006MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND NEAR THE WY/SD BORDER. IN BETWEEN...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT MIXING INTO THE 800-750MB LEVEL HAS PROMOTED A BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH IN WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY LIVED UP TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD FALL A HAIR SHORT OF TARGET VALUES GIVEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGH CIRRUS COVER. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW MEANDERING NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER. UPSTREAM...A TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED 500MB LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...A WELL- DEFINED LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM EASTERN WY TO CENTRAL MT IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST REGIONALLY...WITH THIS WAVE ALREADY KICKING OFF SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS IN THE WY/SD/NE BORDER AREA. FOR THE 00Z-12Z NIGHT PERIOD...MADE ONLY ONE CHANGE OF NOTE TO POPS/WEATHER. INSTEAD OF HAVING SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE 6-HOUR BLOCK FROM 00Z-06Z AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD...OPTED TO SHIFT THIS FORWARD BY 3 HOURS...INSTEAD HIGHLIGHTING THE 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN ONLY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE CWA...OR GENERALLY WEST OF A GREELEY-BEAVER CITY LINE. AND ONLY KEPT THESE CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT AT THAT...AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TARGET THE DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST NEB. LEANING ON HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...HRRR AND 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM...EXPECTATION IS THAT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE FIRING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEB...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE CWA. OPTED TO PULL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING OUT OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH IS LINE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...BUT DEFINITELY MADE SURE TO KEEP A STRONG STORM MENTION FOR 50 MPH WINDS/PENNY SIZE HAIL IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO GET INTO THE CWA. THAT IS OF COURSE NO GUARANTEE THAT IT WILL GET IN...AND THUS ONLY THE 20 POPS...AS THE HRRR AND ALSO THE 18Z NAM/12Z GFS JUST BARELY BRING QPF INTO THE EDGE OF THE CWA BEFORE REALLY FADING IT OUT. JUST DON/T SEE MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT UNLESS FOR SOME REASON A MAJOR EASTWARD-SURGING COLD POOL GETS GOING...AS BY THE TIME CONVECTION SHOULD GET INTO THE CWA ANTICIPATE MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO ONLY BE AROUND 500 J/KG...WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 20KT OR LESS. TURNING TO OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER LOW TEMPS BY A SOLID 4-5 DEGREES BASED ON TRENDS FROM PAST FEW NIGHTS...NOW BRINGING MOST OF THE CWA DOWN INTO THE 58-60 RANGE. DESPITE SOUTHERLY BREEZES REMAINING A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...JUST DON/T SEE HOW TEMPS CAN HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S ALL NIGHT WITHOUT HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. FOR THE FRIDAY DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE AS IT ALREADY WAS...AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENS A BIT AND BECOMES QUASI ZONAL...AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WELL UP INTO CANADA...AND THE PARENT UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT DEEPER INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. DESPITE THE DRY FORECAST...WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE SHOWER AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING WITH SOME HINT OF 700MB THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND...BUT JUST CANNOT JUSTIFY INSERTING MORE THAN SILENT VERY LOW POPS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMP-WISE...MADE ALMOST NO CHANGE WHATSOEVER TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE 87-91 RANGE...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND WITH MIXING ADVERTISED TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL PER NAM SOUNDINGS. IT WILL BE A BIT WINDIER AS WELL THANKS TO HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA REALIZING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 MPH. ALONG THESE LINES...AND BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED TODAY...LOWERED DEWPOINTS QUITE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ORDER OF 6-8 DEGREES...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING/MIXING HOURS. LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD RIDGING...WHILE A TROUGH SITS OVER THE EAST COAST AND A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL IN PLACE...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST/SERN CONUS...AND LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEN THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE RIDGE AXIS GETS PUSHED EAST BY THE PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THINGS STAYING CAPPED OFF WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE 13-16C RANGE. DID INCREASE WINDS A TOUCH ON SATURDAY INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS SFC LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB/NW KS AREA. AS FAR AS HIGHS GO...HAD TRENDED THEM UP YESTERDAY...AND WILL KEEP THEM FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH 90S EXPECTED CWA-WIDE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE MODELS AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WHILE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A QUICKER SOLUTION...THERE IS NOT COMPLETE AGREEMENT. AT 12Z SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE CENTRAL MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S/SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AS FAR AS THE LOCATION OF THE SFC FRONT GOES...BASICALLY RANGES FROM A QUICKER NAM/SREF WITH THE FRONT PUSHING ROUGHLY A THIRD OF THE WAY IN...TO THE ECMWF WHICH STILL HAS IT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO WRN KS. THROUGH THE DAY THAT STORY REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...THE NAM/SREF/GFS ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE...SHOWING THE FRONT OUTSIDE THE E/SE CORNER OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS A TOUCH BEHIND. THOUGH CONSIDERED INSERT A SLIGHT POP ACROSS THE FAR EAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DIDNT WANT TO FLIP FLOP THE FORECAST...AND WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE IF THE EC SPEEDS UP...OR THE OTHERS SLOW DOWN. INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE FASTER TREND IN THE MODELS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...BASICALLY TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. LEFT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND CONSIDERED TAKING PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT COMPLETELY ACROSS THE NW...BUT WANT TO WAIT AND MAKE SURE THIS TREND STICKS. CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...INSTABILITY NOT AN ISSUE...HAVE BETTER FORCING WITH THE FRONT/WAVE...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS BETTER BUT NOT GREAT. WITH THE INCREASED CHANCE OF A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE TRICKY. DID TREND BACK DUE TO THE QUICKER TIMING...WITH MID 80S IN THE NW TO NEAR 90 IN THE SE...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL TIMING CHANGES WOULD AFFECT THOSE FORECAST HIGHS. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HINT AT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE ACTIVITY STARTING IN THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT WITHOUT BETTER AGREEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT. A REINFORCING FRONT/SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S BUT DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 40S/LOW 50S BY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS AS WE GET INTO WED/THURS...AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES TO CROSS THROUGH THE REGION..AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS POSSIBLY DRIFTING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WANT TO SEE BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING POPS AT THIS POINT. NOT EXPECTING BIG CHANGES IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...HEINLEIN SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH LONG TERM...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
646 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012 .AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD MAKE ITS WAY EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD DIE OUT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL REALIZE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL WEATHER SITUATION TONIGHT/TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK A LOT LIKE THE PAST 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BEING A BIT WINDIER. 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD 1020MB HIGH OVER THE IA/MO/IL BORDER AREA...WHILE OFF TO THE WEST A 1006MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND NEAR THE WY/SD BORDER. IN BETWEEN...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT MIXING INTO THE 800-750MB LEVEL HAS PROMOTED A BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH IN WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY LIVED UP TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD FALL A HAIR SHORT OF TARGET VALUES GIVEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGH CIRRUS COVER. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW MEANDERING NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER. UPSTREAM...A TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED 500MB LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...A WELL- DEFINED LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM EASTERN WY TO CENTRAL MT IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST REGIONALLY...WITH THIS WAVE ALREADY KICKING OFF SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS IN THE WY/SD/NE BORDER AREA. FOR THE 00Z-12Z NIGHT PERIOD...MADE ONLY ONE CHANGE OF NOTE TO POPS/WEATHER. INSTEAD OF HAVING SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE 6-HOUR BLOCK FROM 00Z-06Z AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD...OPTED TO SHIFT THIS FORWARD BY 3 HOURS...INSTEAD HIGHLIGHTING THE 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN ONLY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE CWA...OR GENERALLY WEST OF A GREELEY-BEAVER CITY LINE. AND ONLY KEPT THESE CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT AT THAT...AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TARGET THE DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST NEB. LEANING ON HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...HRRR AND 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM...EXPECTATION IS THAT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE FIRING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEB...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE CWA. OPTED TO PULL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING OUT OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH IS LINE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...BUT DEFINITELY MADE SURE TO KEEP A STRONG STORM MENTION FOR 50 MPH WINDS/PENNY SIZE HAIL IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO GET INTO THE CWA. THAT IS OF COURSE NO GUARANTEE THAT IT WILL GET IN...AND THUS ONLY THE 20 POPS...AS THE HRRR AND ALSO THE 18Z NAM/12Z GFS JUST BARELY BRING QPF INTO THE EDGE OF THE CWA BEFORE REALLY FADING IT OUT. JUST DON/T SEE MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT UNLESS FOR SOME REASON A MAJOR EASTWARD-SURGING COLD POOL GETS GOING...AS BY THE TIME CONVECTION SHOULD GET INTO THE CWA ANTICIPATE MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO ONLY BE AROUND 500 J/KG...WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 20KT OR LESS. TURNING TO OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER LOW TEMPS BY A SOLID 4-5 DEGREES BASED ON TRENDS FROM PAST FEW NIGHTS...NOW BRINGING MOST OF THE CWA DOWN INTO THE 58-60 RANGE. DESPITE SOUTHERLY BREEZES REMAINING A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...JUST DON/T SEE HOW TEMPS CAN HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S ALL NIGHT WITHOUT HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. FOR THE FRIDAY DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE AS IT ALREADY WAS...AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENS A BIT AND BECOMES QUASI ZONAL...AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WELL UP INTO CANADA...AND THE PARENT UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT DEEPER INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. DESPITE THE DRY FORECAST...WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE SHOWER AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING WITH SOME HINT OF 700MB THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND...BUT JUST CANNOT JUSTIFY INSERTING MORE THAN SILENT VERY LOW POPS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMP-WISE...MADE ALMOST NO CHANGE WHATSOEVER TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE 87-91 RANGE...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND WITH MIXING ADVERTISED TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL PER NAM SOUNDINGS. IT WILL BE A BIT WINDIER AS WELL THANKS TO HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA REALIZING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 MPH. ALONG THESE LINES...AND BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED TODAY...LOWERED DEWPOINTS QUITE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ORDER OF 6-8 DEGREES...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING/MIXING HOURS. LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD RIDGING...WHILE A TROUGH SITS OVER THE EAST COAST AND A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL IN PLACE...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST/SERN CONUS...AND LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEN THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE RIDGE AXIS GETS PUSHED EAST BY THE PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THINGS STAYING CAPPED OFF WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE 13-16C RANGE. DID INCREASE WINDS A TOUCH ON SATURDAY INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS SFC LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB/NW KS AREA. AS FAR AS HIGHS GO...HAD TRENDED THEM UP YESTERDAY...AND WILL KEEP THEM FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH 90S EXPECTED CWA-WIDE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE MODELS AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WHILE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A QUICKER SOLUTION...THERE IS NOT COMPLETE AGREEMENT. AT 12Z SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE CENTRAL MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S/SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AS FAR AS THE LOCATION OF THE SFC FRONT GOES...BASICALLY RANGES FROM A QUICKER NAM/SREF WITH THE FRONT PUSHING ROUGHLY A THIRD OF THE WAY IN...TO THE ECMWF WHICH STILL HAS IT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO WRN KS. THROUGH THE DAY THAT STORY REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...THE NAM/SREF/GFS ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE...SHOWING THE FRONT OUTSIDE THE E/SE CORNER OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS A TOUCH BEHIND. THOUGH CONSIDERED INSERT A SLIGHT POP ACROSS THE FAR EAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DIDNT WANT TO FLIP FLOP THE FORECAST...AND WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE IF THE EC SPEEDS UP...OR THE OTHERS SLOW DOWN. INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE FASTER TREND IN THE MODELS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...BASICALLY TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. LEFT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND CONSIDERED TAKING PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT COMPLETELY ACROSS THE NW...BUT WANT TO WAIT AND MAKE SURE THIS TREND STICKS. CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...INSTABILITY NOT AN ISSUE...HAVE BETTER FORCING WITH THE FRONT/WAVE...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS BETTER BUT NOT GREAT. WITH THE INCREASED CHANCE OF A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE TRICKY. DID TREND BACK DUE TO THE QUICKER TIMING...WITH MID 80S IN THE NW TO NEAR 90 IN THE SE...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL TIMING CHANGES WOULD AFFECT THOSE FORECAST HIGHS. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HINT AT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE ACTIVITY STARTING IN THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT WITHOUT BETTER AGREEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT. A REINFORCING FRONT/SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S BUT DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 40S/LOW 50S BY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS AS WE GET INTO WED/THURS...AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES TO CROSS THROUGH THE REGION..AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS POSSIBLY DRIFTING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WANT TO SEE BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING POPS AT THIS POINT. NOT EXPECTING BIG CHANGES IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...HEINLEIN SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH LONG TERM...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012 .UPDATE... DID INCREASE HIGHS SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AS TEMPERATURES HAD INCREASED MORE RAPID THAN EXPECTED. AT 17Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM KIEN TO KAIA TO KIBN. THERE HAS BEEN WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY AND JUST TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE VIS SATELLITE WS SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPING GOING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT. BACKED OFF ON EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AS CURRENT STORM MOTIONS ARE ALMOST DUE NORTH AND WON/T SEE MUCH OF A NORTHEAST COMPONENT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THEN...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST OF THE PANHANDLE. AFTER DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...BELIEVE ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS THERE WON/T BE MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP STORMS GOING. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...BELIEVE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS COLORADO...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE MINIMAL...ONLY AROUND 25KTS ACCORDING TO THE RUC AND NAM FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO DON/T SEE MUCH OUTSIDE AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM LATER TODAY. && .AVIATION... QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED CONCERNING AVIATION WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT VERY LITTLE CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KOGA TO KVTN. FOR BOTH KVTN AND KLBF...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR...WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO MIX. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/ UPDATE... DISCUSSION... A LITTLE MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHICH MAY BE WASHING OUT ALONG THE WY-NEB BORDER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. SATELLITE SUGGESTED ACCAS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEB. THE FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN NEB THIS MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/ DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. A SOMEWHAT BLOCKED LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS 48 AS UPPER RIDGING IS TIGHTLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER EASTERN WYOMING/PANHANDLE REGION OF NEBRASKA. MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINE WITH MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST TO CARRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ONLY THE PANHANDLE REGION. AGREE WITH THE ASSESSMENT AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE SUGGEST MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITION THOUGH...BUT LESS THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR PROFILES. GIVEN NEGATIVE LI/S APPROACHING -4C AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA...CANNOT RULE OUT A LARGE HAIL OR SEVERE WIND REPORT...BUT FEEL THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WHICH AGAIN SHOULD LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 TODAY AND TONIGHT AND RELEGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO THERE AS WELL. A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED BREAK DOWN. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS SUGGESTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO. ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND BETTER SHEAR TO PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AGAIN LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FROM ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE THE MODELS HAVE THE WAVE PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LESS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE POPS EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS TARGET A STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO A A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXTENDED...12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN INTO THE 90S BY SATURDAY...THEN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRAGS A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CONTINUED THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST AS MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AND THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH IN THE DAKOTAS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS AVIATION/UPDATE...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
621 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING US SHOWERS SATURDAY BEFORE A STRETCH OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 630 PM UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATED LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...TO DETERMINISTICALLY HONE IN ON AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO RULE OUT LOCATIONS NOT LIKELY TO SEE ANYTHING. STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO QUITE OBVIOUS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE LAKE AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...YET MAINLY SUNNY IN BETWEEN. HRRR MODEL DOING AN ADMIRABLE JOB PLACING CONVECTION IN AN ENHANCED LINE ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE...ABOUT TO SPREAD THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS...AND HEADING SOUTH WHILE DECREASING IN COVERAGE WITH TIME THIS EVENING. FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SCT. SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND EVEN A BIT OF SMALL HAIL. AT THE OFFICE WE HAD HAIL JUST A BIT BIGGER THAN THE SIZE OF A PEA AND MOST RECENTLY UP IN ROME 1/4" HAIL OR THE SIZE OF A PEA FROM NUMEROUS SPOTTERS. WITH VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS...NOT SURPRISING WE WILL SEE A BIT OF HAIL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE WITH VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE (INVERTED V SOUNDINGS). I AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TO TURN SEVERE WITH NO SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THE STORMS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. AS THESE STORMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN EXPECT THE ACTION TO DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND A BIT BETTER MIXING OFF THE DECK...DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NEPA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 330 PM UPDATE... THURSDAY...WE STILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF THE CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE MARITIMES SO MUCH LIKE TODAY...SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY ON. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS ABOUT 1000 FEET HIGHER TOMORROW (6500 FEET VS. 7500 FEET)...BUT STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS. AGAIN NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE HOWEVER BUT DEF. WORTH A MENTION. FRIDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DRIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT A DRY DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM I-81 WEST. WITH THAT SAID WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE LOW AND THE MODELS STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS EAST...TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST. SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON PRECIP FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. ALL THREE MODELS (EURO/NAM/GFS) SHOW A WAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH SCT. SHOWERS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING THE SLOWEST MODEL BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS NY STATE. ACROSS PA SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIP GETS. FOR NOW WILL COVER THIS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PD FEATURES A BLDG RDG FROM THE MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE OLD CLSD LOW AS IT DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE RDGG...STILL SOME PSBLTY OF AFTN CONV...ESP EARLY IN THE PD AS WEAK WVS SLIDE DOWN THE ERN SIDE OF THE RDG...AND AGAIN ON TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE AS A STRONG WV COMES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND KICKS THE RDG TO THE EAST. IT WILL BE WARM...AS H8 TEMPS APRCH 16C TO 18C WITH SUMMER TIME HUMIDITY. GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID FOR THE PD. RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS BASED GUID AND THE ECMWF MAKES THIS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE XTNDD FCST. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LL/S DRYING OUT BUT WITH HTG AND COOL POOL ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHWRS AND TRWS XPCTD THRU THE AFTN HRS. BELIEVE CVRG WILL BE ISLTD ENUF SUCH THAT IT WILL NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS... HWVR...BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS PSBL IF A SHWR HITS THE SITE. CLRG THIS EVENING WILL BE FLWD BY VLY FOG ONCE AGAIN AS LL WINDS GO CALM. DOES NOT LOOK AS MOIST AS THE PRVS NGT...SO WILL ONLY FCST LIFR AT ELM. HTG AFT SUNRISE ON THU WILL RESULT IN CLRG SKIES. INSTABILITY SHWRS PSBL AGAIN...BUT GNRLY BEYOND THE TAF PD. OUTLOOK... THU AFTN/FRI..MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM FOG ESPECIALLY VALLEY TERMINALS. SAT - MON...MAINLY VFR BUT MVFR POSSIBLE SAT IN SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1025 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE STARTING TUESDAY... WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW-MOVING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 1025 PM THURSDAY... 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROUGH STILL HANGING OUT ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE 250MB JET OVER NC AND VA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DPVA PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NC BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. THE SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH VA ARE BEING DRIVEN BY THIS DPVA AND LINGERING INSTABILITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THEY WILL MAKE IN INTO CENTRAL NC. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDED THE TIME THROUGH 06Z GIVEN THE FORECASTED TRACK OF VORTICITY MAX AS THE TROUGH BEINGS TO PUSH OFFSHORE. THE 21Z HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE SHOWERS MAKING IT TO THE VA/NC BORDER BY 06Z BUT FALLING APART AS IT DOES SO. SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 22Z AND THE 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW.AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA... BRINGING A MUCH WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKS END AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE SFC RIDGE STILL CENTERED TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY... FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE AS TODAY...BUT WARMING BETWEEN H5-H7 WILL CAP DEVELOPING DAYTIME CU. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS UNDER THIS RIDGE AND GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 60 AS THE SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST. EXPECT VERY SHALLOW DAYTIME CU AND VERY WARM TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. ON SUNDAY WE`LL SEE AN ELONGATED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER NE TX AND LA GRADUALLY DRIFTING NE ALONG THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT DRY AND WARM MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PRECLUDE PRECIP. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...SO WE`LL SEE HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 240 PM... THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES A TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE IN BETWEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HEIGHTS IS NOTED ACROSS TX AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT MARGINALLY CLOSES OFF. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME AND THE TX/GULF LOW OPENS AND LIFTS NORTH AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. EVENTUALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH REACHES THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY AND THE NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER FEATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF UPPER LOW AND THE TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON DAYS 6/7 ARE MORE UNCERTAIN. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DECREASES WED AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE WEST WHERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT AND GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. WILL CAP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES. BUT WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND AT LEAST SOME MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY HIGHER. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY REDUCING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE CONTRACTS FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. -BLAES && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY FROM SOME PRE-DAWN IFR/MVFR (MAYBE EVEN LIFR) VISBYS AT KRWI. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT... WITH LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNSET FRIDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME GENERALLY MVFR/IFR VISBYS AT FOG PRONE KRWI AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. THUS... HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VISBYS IN THE 7-11Z TIME FRAME TO SHOW THIS THREAT. ALOFT... A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. A SHOWERS OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW... AS CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURANCES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL BE BRIEF AND LIGHT. THUS... WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. LOOKING AHEAD: RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIH NEAR TERM...KC/NP SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM NOVA SCOTIA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1025 AM WEDNESDAY... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTHERN AL. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO PA/MD/VA FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS FAR SW VA AND NW NC AS OF 14Z EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. AN AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPED LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NC. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS INITIATED IN A REGION OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LAST EVENING. OVERNIGHT STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPED IN THE 295-300K LAYER IN A REGION OF INCREASING DPVA WHICH ALLOWED THE RAIN SHIELD TO EXPAND AND TO BECOME BRIEFLY HEAVY IN A FEW LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REACHED AROUND 2 INCHES IN ROWAN COUNTY WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES WITH A MORE GENERAL 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE TRIAD. THESE AMOUNTS WERE AROUND 1/3 OF THE RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERDONE WITH BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM AND GFS WHILE THE 03-09Z RUNS OF THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND LARGELY DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL WEAKEN AS THE SHORT WAVE TOUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL TREND THE FORECAST FROM NUMEROUS SHOWERS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS...A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW..AND LITTLE LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHEAR VORTICITY AND WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES TO GIVE WAY TO SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AND MANUALLY EDITED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. -BLAES ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 1 WHERE THE RELATIVE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS PROGGED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY: H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER... CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING SSE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL BE ROUGHLY THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO BE 5-10 METERS HIGHER THAN TODAY IN ASSOC/W HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT ARE ALSO PROGGED TO WARM BY ~1C. AS A RESULT...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ROUGHLY THE SAME AS TODAY... WITH ~250 J/KG MLCAPE DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT... ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING AND TEMPS ALOFT DO NOT MARGINALLY INCREASE AS EXPECTED...SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT 20% AND HAVE OMITTED CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN 5-10 METER 1000-850 MB HEIGHT RISES AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...OR 77-82F. THURSDAY NIGHT: ONE LAST SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY MAY NEGATE MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOC/W IT. MODEL GUIDANCE AND HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...AND ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. GIVEN SLIGHT AIRMASS MODIFICATION...EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F...WARMEST SOUTH. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY... THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD OF A HOTTER AND DRIER WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN AND THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE OF CHOICE... ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE MODELS WITH THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO NUDGE EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS FRI-SAT... THEN MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INCLUDING NC THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. RISING HEIGHTS WILL MEAN RISING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST FRIDAY TO A POSITION OVER NC SUNDAY... THEN JUST OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MINIMAL... EXCEPT AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY FRI-SAT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 80-85... INCREASING TO BETWEEN 82-88 SATURDAY. IT WILL BE HOT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD REACH 87-92. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60-65 RANGE FRI... MODERATING TO 65-70 SUN-TUE. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ATTM ACROSS THE TRIAD REGION BUT FARTHER EAST THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNINGS RAIN CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH FLT CATEGORIES SLOWLY IMPROVING WEST. THIS EVENING WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OUR TAF SITES. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHEARED SHORT WAVE MOVING SE ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT TONIGHT FROM THIS WAVE IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCE. ON THE OTHER HAND...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING WITH MOIST LIGHT NE FLOW IN PLACE...THUS LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE. LOOKING AHEAD: GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...BLAES/VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...NP/VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM NOVA SCOTIA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1025 AM WEDNESDAY... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTHERN AL. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO PA/MD/VA FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS FAR SW VA AND NW NC AS OF 14Z EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. AN AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPED LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NC. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS INITIATED IN A REGION OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LAST EVENING. OVERNIGHT STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPED IN THE 295-300K LAYER IN A REGION OF INCREASING DPVA WHICH ALLOWED THE RAIN SHIELD TO EXPAND AND TO BECOME BRIEFLY HEAVY IN A FEW LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REACHED AROUND 2 INCHES IN ROWAN COUNTY WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES WITH A MORE GENERAL 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE TRIAD. THESE AMOUNTS WERE AROUND 1/3 OF THE RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERDONE WITH BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM AND GFS WHILE THE 03-09Z RUNS OF THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND LARGELY DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL WEAKEN AS THE SHORT WAVE TOUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL TREND THE FORECAST FROM NUMEROUS SHOWERS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS...A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW..AND LITTLE LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHEAR VORTICITY AND WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES TO GIVE WAY TO SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AND MANUALLY EDITED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. -BLAES ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 1 WHERE THE RELATIVE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS PROGGED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY: H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER... CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING SSE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL BE ROUGHLY THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO BE 5-10 METERS HIGHER THAN TODAY IN ASSOC/W HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT ARE ALSO PROGGED TO WARM BY ~1C. AS A RESULT...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ROUGHLY THE SAME AS TODAY... WITH ~250 J/KG MLCAPE DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT... ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING AND TEMPS ALOFT DO NOT MARGINALLY INCREASE AS EXPECTED...SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT 20% AND HAVE OMITTED CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN 5-10 METER 1000-850 MB HEIGHT RISES AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...OR 77-82F. THURSDAY NIGHT: ONE LAST SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY MAY NEGATE MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOC/W IT. MODEL GUIDANCE AND HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...AND ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. GIVEN SLIGHT AIRMASS MODIFICATION...EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F...WARMEST SOUTH. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY... THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD OF A HOTTER AND DRIER WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN AND THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE OF CHOICE... ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE MODELS WITH THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO NUDGE EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS FRI-SAT... THEN MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INCLUDING NC THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. RISING HEIGHTS WILL MEAN RISING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST FRIDAY TO A POSITION OVER NC SUNDAY... THEN JUST OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MINIMAL... EXCEPT AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY FRI-SAT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 80-85... INCREASING TO BETWEEN 82-88 SATURDAY. IT WILL BE HOT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD REACH 87-92. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60-65 RANGE FRI... MODERATING TO 65-70 SUN-TUE. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED QUITE A BIT THE PAST FEW HOURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PIEDMONT SINCE 07Z... EXTENDING EAST TO THE TRIANGLE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALREADY OBSERVED AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED VERY POORLY THIS MORNING...ALREADY MISSING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN FROM HICKORY EAST TO ASHEBORO/SILER CITY. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO PREVAIL AT THE INT/GSO/RDU TERMINALS THROUGH NOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE FAY/RWI TAF SITES BY MID MORNING. EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OR SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF CENTRAL NC. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR AGAIN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN USUAL AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LOOKING AHEAD: GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...BLAES/VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
705 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF WILMINGTON. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND FARTHER INLAND WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL DRY OUT ON THURSDAY AND SEASONABLE WARMTH IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT`S ON TRACK. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW RAIN BLOSSOMING IN SOUTHERN GA/SC AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACQUIRE A MORE CROSS-FRONTAL COMPONENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. BASED ON RADAR LOOPS AND THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS I`VE TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT FOR TODAY FROM NEARLY 100 PERCENT IN GEORGETOWN SC TO ONLY 20 PERCENT IN BENNETTSVILLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS... A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING AND WILL TURN EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AIDED BY THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK JUST OFF THE NC COAST. YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GEORGIA COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PUSH EAST AND OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST ATLANTIC AIR WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE SURFACE FRONT AND WILL BE FURTHER LIFTED BY THE FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING SPREADING FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EXTREME EASTERN NC. OUR FORECAST POPS TODAY RANGE FROM 80-90 PERCENT FROM KINGSTREE AND GEORGETOWN NORTH THROUGH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTHPORT. POPS ARE MORE IN THE 50/50 RANGE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LESSER POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. UPWARDS OF HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY...WITH A QUARTER INCH FROM MYRTLE BEACH NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER LAND TODAY WITH ABSOLUTELY STABLE THERMAL PROFILES. RAIN SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY MID- AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TOPPED OFF BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS OFTEN RESULTS IN A BROKEN DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN THESE TWO VERTICALLY DISSIMILAR AIRMASSES. FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW WE`RE EXPECTING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY CRAWL THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE PRECIP CLEARS OFF THE COAST EXPECT MOST AREAS TO POP INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS UPPER 70S BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT STILL POOLING ACROSS MOST OF SE GA AND SC WHILE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS FAR NORTH IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GENERATE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND SO POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE OTHERWISE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO HIT OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 80. MOISTURE THEN GETS SHUNTED EVEN FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH ANOTHER APPRECIABLE VORT MAX WILL STREAK BY EARLY FRIDAY THE COLUMN WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IT SWINGS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THE LONG TERM WILL BRING RATHER QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OFF THE COAST. BEING MUCH WEAKER THAN A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH IT WILL LIKELY LACK THE MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY OUT OF THE PLAINS COULD ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...AN AREA OF LIFT...COURTESY OF THE JET STREAM...WILL PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WILL RIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG WITH THE JET THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY SATURATES THE ENTIRE COLUMN. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...LOWERED SEAS BY ABOUT A FOOT CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS SHOULD SURGE LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS... YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CENTRAL GEORGIA COAST THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ALONG THIS FRONT AND MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING IN AREAS WITH AN OPEN EXPOSURE TO NORTHEAST WINDS. A "SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY AS FRONT REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE THE REGION IN A RATHER WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND THUS VERY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A WEAK HIGH THOUGH AND RATHER SLOW TO PROGRESS...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS THAT ONLY VERY SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY QUIET SET OF WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY OFFSHORE BUT IN SO MUCH A TYPICAL JUNE FASHION WITH A STRONG BERMUDA ANTICYCLONE. THIS WEEKEND SETUP WILL FIND A WEAKER HIGH CLOSER TO THE COAST KEEPING WIND SPEEDS CAPPED AT ABOUT 10 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE SW. SMALL WIND WAVES AND NEGLIGIBLE SWELL ENERGY YIELDING JUST 2 FT PREDOMINANT SEA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WE`RE SEVERAL DAYS PAST THIS MONTH`S FULL MOON ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL RANGES REMAIN RATHER LARGE. ONSHORE WINDS ARE HELPING TO BUILD A SMALL TIDAL SURGE AS WELL. THE LARGEST FACTOR HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE AN UNRESOLVED POSITIVE WATER LEVEL ANOMALY THAT IS SHOWING UP ALL ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MAINE TO FLORIDA. THIS FACTOR WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CREATING YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. SOME DATA FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE... ASTRONOMICAL SURGE + FORECAST WATER FLOOD LOCATION TIDE ANOMALY LEVEL STAGE CAPE FEAR RIVER-WILM 5.14 FT +1.00 6.14 FT 5.50 FT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 5.18 FT +1.10 6.28 FT 6.00 FT MYRTLE BEACH 6.50 FT +0.80 7.60 FT 7.50 FT && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ054-056. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ106-108-110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...REK/MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
631 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF WILMINGTON. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND FARTHER INLAND WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL DRY OUT ON THURSDAY AND SEASONABLE WARMTH IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT`S ON TRACK. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW RAIN BLOSSOMING IN SOUTHERN GA/SC AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACQUIRE A MORE CROSS-FRONTAL COMPONENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. BASED ON RADAR LOOPS AND THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS I`VE TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT FOR TODAY FROM NEARLY 100 PERCENT IN GEORGETOWN SC TO ONLY 20 PERCENT IN BENNETTSVILLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS... A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING AND WILL TURN EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AIDED BY THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK JUST OFF THE NC COAST. YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GEORGIA COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PUSH EAST AND OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST ATLANTIC AIR WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE SURFACE FRONT AND WILL BE FURTHER LIFTED BY THE FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING SPREADING FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EXTREME EASTERN NC. OUR FORECAST POPS TODAY RANGE FROM 80-90 PERCENT FROM KINGSTREE AND GEORGETOWN NORTH THROUGH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTHPORT. POPS ARE MORE IN THE 50/50 RANGE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LESSER POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. UPWARDS OF HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY...WITH A QUARTER INCH FROM MYRTLE BEACH NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER LAND TODAY WITH ABSOLUTELY STABLE THERMAL PROFILES. RAIN SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY MID- AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TOPPED OFF BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS OFTEN RESULTS IN A BROKEN DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN THESE TWO VERTICALLY DISSIMILAR AIRMASSES. FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW WE`RE EXPECTING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY CRAWL THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE PRECIP CLEARS OFF THE COAST EXPECT MOST AREAS TO POP INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS UPPER 70S BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT STILL POOLING ACROSS MOST OF SE GA AND SC WHILE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS FAR NORTH IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GENERATE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND SO POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE OTHERWISE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO HIT OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 80. MOISTURE THEN GETS SHUNTED EVEN FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH ANOTHER APPRECIABLE VORT MAX WILL STREAK BY EARLY FRIDAY THE COLUMN WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IT SWINGS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THE LONG TERM WILL BRING RATHER QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OFF THE COAST. BEING MUCH WEAKER THAN A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH IT WILL LIKELY LACK THE MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY OUT OF THE PLAINS COULD ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR FLO. THIS BOUNDARY WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES. EXPECT MORE OF A STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN TO SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE CRE/MYR TERMINALS STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THERE IS ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF CEILING/VISIBILITY FORECAST. IN GENERAL...AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND FALLS INTO THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR OCCURRING 11-15Z. BY NOON LOCAL TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. NORTHEAST TO EAST SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...LOWERED SEAS BY ABOUT A FOOT CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS SHOULD SURGE LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS... YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CENTRAL GEORGIA COAST THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ALONG THIS FRONT AND MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING IN AREAS WITH AN OPEN EXPOSURE TO NORTHEAST WINDS. A "SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY AS FRONT REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE THE REGION IN A RATHER WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND THUS VERY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A WEAK HIGH THOUGH AND RATHER SLOW TO PROGRESS...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS THAT ONLY VERY SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY QUIET SET OF WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY OFFSHORE BUT IN SO MUCH A TYPICAL JUNE FASHION WITH A STRONG BERMUDA ANTICYCLONE. THIS WEEKEND SETUP WILL FIND A WEAKER HIGH CLOSER TO THE COAST KEEPING WIND SPEEDS CAPPED AT ABOUT 10 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE SW. SMALL WIND WAVES AND NEGLIGIBLE SWELL ENERGY YIELDING JUST 2 FT PREDOMINANT SEA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WE`RE SEVERAL DAYS PAST THIS MONTH`S FULL MOON ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL RANGES REMAIN RATHER LARGE. ONSHORE WINDS ARE HELPING TO BUILD A SMALL TIDAL SURGE AS WELL. THE LARGEST FACTOR HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE AN UNRESOLVED POSITIVE WATER LEVEL ANOMALY THAT IS SHOWING UP ALL ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MAINE TO FLORIDA. THIS FACTOR WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CREATING YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. SOME DATA FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE... ASTRONOMICAL SURGE + FORECAST WATER FLOOD LOCATION TIDE ANOMALY LEVEL STAGE CAPE FEAR RIVER-WILM 5.14 FT +1.00 6.14 FT 5.50 FT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 5.18 FT +1.10 6.28 FT 6.00 FT MYRTLE BEACH 6.50 FT +0.80 7.60 FT 7.50 FT && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ054-056. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ106-108-110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...REK/MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MBB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
322 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND LIFTING NORTH WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS AREA WHERE ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY. A NARROW HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL H85 SOUTHERLY JET OF 50KT TO 55KT CONTINUES AIDING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ROUGHLY 7.5C/KM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS AREA...MOVING IT NORTH AND EXPANDING IT EASTWARD. OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE REMAINS LOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE HAIL CAPE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE REMAIN DECENTLY HIGH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO LATER TODAY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY CREATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH 35KT TO 40KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. K-INDICES OF 35 TO 40 ALONG WITH PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES MAY YIELD HEAVY RAIN AS WELL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BOTH THURSDAY EVENING LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL GENERATE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA GENERATING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE THETA-E GRADIENT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PRIMARILY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A LID ON AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO BREAK THE CAP SATURDAY EVENING WITH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DETAILS OF THE AREAL EXTENT AND TIMING ARE SKETCHY AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE FORECASTED WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY AREAWIDE MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME WIND SHEAR INTO FOCUS BETWEEN 10Z-15Z WEDNESDAY AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM/AVIATION....TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1140 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012 .DISCUSSION...LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PERSISTENT STRONG H85 JET OF 50KT OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NEAR THE SOUTH/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO EASTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE WARM FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35KT IN THE SOUTHWEST COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR HAS POCKETS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. BASED ON CURRENT BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADARS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHWEST BY 06Z LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL CHANGE UNCERTAINTY WORDING TO AREAL COVERAGE WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY HEADING NORTH. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AERODROMES THROUGH 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME WIND SHEAR INTO FOCUS BETWEEN 10Z/5 AM CDT AND 15Z/10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KS AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
734 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL CONTROL THE REGIONS WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A CHANCE RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SCT SHRA HAS POPPED UP AS EXPECTED IN NW OH AND OVER INTO ERN OH...BRUSHING THE NRN AND ERN COUNTIES OF THE FA. LATEST HRRR RUN SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THIS RUN ALLOWS THE CONVECTION TO BUBBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DYING DOWN BY 00Z. FOLLOWED THIS SCENARIO...KEEPING 20 POPS IN THE APPROXIMATELY THE NE 1/2 OF THE FA UNTIL 6PM...THEN RAMPED DOWN QUICKLY TO 0 POP. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AS THEY DID LAST EVENING. THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE VERIFIED THE BEST LAST NIGHT...SO LEANED TOWARDS IT AGAIN FOR TONIGHTS LOWS. GENERALLY WENT BETWEEN 50 AND 55. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FLOW AT H5 STILL REMAINS NWLY...BUT IT WEAKENS DURING THE DAY AS RIDGING WORKS E THROUGH THE DEEP S. EXPECT A FEW CU TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY. CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY...PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 50S FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOCUS OF FCST REMAINS TIMING OF RAIN FOR MONDAY AND HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY. QUESTION OF 90 DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY. WILL BE NEAR OR AT THE MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE NORMAL BUT CERTAINLY NOT UNCOMMON FOR JUNE. BIG QUESTION IS SURGE OF MOISTURE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTH. AGAIN AS IN MOST CASES TIMING IS PROBLEMATIC BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT COULD BE RAISED DEPENDING MODEL OUTCOME CLOSER TO FCST PERIOD. MODELS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT OF PUSHING MOISTURE EAST WITH COLD FRONT BY LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS GIVES STRONG INDICATION FOR GOING DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMP FCST TRICKY FOR MONDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. WILL SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER AND COOLER SCENARIOS FOR NOW. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND PERHAPS NOT COOL ENOUGH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. LEFT TAFS SITES DRY DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE LAST TWO NIGHTS WENT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KLUK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT KLUK WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 12Z. THE OTHER AREA TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
530 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO SELF DESTRUCT CUMULUS WITH THE MORNING SFC HEATING. EXPANDING CU FIELD DUE TO POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ IS SPREADING SWD FM THE LWR LKS...STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 6.5-7C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE ON THE SAME PAGE SHOWING CVRG OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INCREASING INTO THE MID AFTN HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME INTERACTION WITH A LAKE BREEZE MAY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP MID- LVL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETTING REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS FOR THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. MAXES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WED AFTN READINGS AND RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 500MB LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY WITH THE MEAN TROF POSITION MOVING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST LATE THURSDAY...EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST A SCHC OF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES. LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES EASTWARD TREK AS THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI- ZONAL ORIENTATION INTO SAT. AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHS COULD BRING A WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS MOVE THIS PERTURBATION FURTHER SOUTH...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVERLAYING THE AREA AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MASON DIXON BY 06Z SUN. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD HAVE INCREASED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE...PRESENCE OF DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUNDAY...AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. CURRENTLY THE ONLY FOR SURE DRY DAYS SEEM TO BE FRIDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH GIVEN VARIABILITY OF MESOSCALE FEATURES THROUGH SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AT LONGER RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING A FEW DEGS WARMER EACH DAY. THE CURRENT RUNS ARE TRENDING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER SUNDAY AND MONDAYS HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE COURTESY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL DISRUPT THE MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TUE- WED. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THIS PATTERN THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT TIMING VARIATION. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPDATED 21Z TAFS FOR CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME SHOWERS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. ACTIVITY SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED AIRFIELD IMPACTS PERSISTING INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY MVFR CIGS. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN FALLS TODAY. OUTLOOK... THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE. FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED. MON...MORNING FOG PSBL EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
353 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO SELF DESTRUCT CUMULUS WITH THE MORNING SFC HEATING. EXPANDING CU FIELD DUE TO POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ IS SPREADING SWD FM THE LWR LKS...STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 6.5-7C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE ON THE SAME PAGE SHOWING CVRG OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INCREASING INTO THE MID AFTN HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME INTERACTION WITH A LAKE BREEZE MAY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP MID- LVL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETTING REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS FOR THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. MAXES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WED AFTN READINGS AND RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 500MB LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY WITH THE MEAN TROF POSITION MOVING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST LATE THURSDAY...EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST A SCHC OF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES. LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES EASTWARD TREK AS THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI- ZONAL ORIENTATION INTO SAT. AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHS COULD BRING A WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS MOVE THIS PERTURBATION FURTHER SOUTH...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVERLAYING THE AREA AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MASON DIXON BY 06Z SUN. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD HAVE INCREASED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE...PRESENCE OF DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUNDAY...AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. CURRENTLY THE ONLY FOR SURE DRY DAYS SEEM TO BE FRIDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH GIVEN VARIABILITY OF MESOSCALE FEATURES THROUGH SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AT LONGER RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING A FEW DEGS WARMER EACH DAY. THE CURRENT RUNS ARE TRENDING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER SUNDAY AND MONDAYS HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE COURTESY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL DISRUPT THE MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TUE- WED. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THIS PATTERN THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT TIMING VARIATION. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED AIRFIELD IMPACTS PERSISTING INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY MVFR CIGS. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN FALLS TODAY. OUTLOOK... THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE. FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
149 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO SELF DESTRUCT CUMULUS WITH THE MORNING SFC HEATING. EXPANDING CU FIELD DUE TO POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ IS SPREADING SWD FM THE LWR LKS...STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 6.5-7C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE ON THE SAME PAGE SHOWING CVRG OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INCREASING INTO THE MID AFTN HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME INTERACTION WITH A LAKE BREEZE MAY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP MID- LVL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETTING REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS FOR THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. MAXES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WED AFTN READINGS AND RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HE MEAN TROF POSITION WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY WITH JUST A SCHC OF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES. THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI- ZONAL ORIENTATION ON SAT...AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING A FEW DEGS WARMER EACH DAY. ALL MDL DATA SUGGESTS A WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS WILL CROSS THE UPPER GRT LKS EARLY SAT MORNING AND REACH UPSTATE NY/NEW ENG BY SAT EVE. CONSENSUS SOLN WOULD KEEP THIS SYS AND ITS ASSOCD IMPACTS GENERALLY NORTH OF PA...BUT GIVEN SOME SPATIAL MDL DIFFS AND LOW/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT LONGER RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COURTESY OF A STG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST. CURRENT MEDIAN GUID BLEND HAS HIGHS PEAKING BTWN 85-90F ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUE-WED. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED AIRFIELD IMPACTS PERSISTING INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY MVFR CIGS. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN FALLS TODAY. OUTLOOK... THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE. FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1003 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES NOW MIXING WITH RIDGETOP CUMULUS WITH THE MORNING SFC HEATING. CU FIELD WILL EXPAND BY LATE MORNING...AS SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE COMBINES WITH POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ SPREADING SWD FM THE LWR LKS. ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE /CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CROSSING THE LWR LKS AND SRN NEW ENG AT 09Z/ WILL PIVOT SWD AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND HELP TO STEEPEN THE MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 6.5-7C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE ON THE SAME PAGE SHOWING CVRG OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INCREASING INTO THE EARLY- MID AFTN HOURS. HRRR SHOWS BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME INTERACTION WITH A LAKE BREEZE MAY INDUCE AN ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP MID- LVL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVG...RANGING FM THE MID- UPPER 60S MTNS TO LOW 70S IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN VLYS. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY DURING THE AFTN HOURS THURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THURS NGT. THE LG SCALE MID-UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A SCHC OF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES. THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI-ZONAL ORIENTATION ON SAT...AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING A FEW DEGS WARMER EACH DAY. ALL MDL DATA SUGGESTS A WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS WILL CROSS THE UPPER GRT LKS EARLY SAT MORNING AND REACH UPSTATE NY/NEW ENG BY SAT EVE. CONSENSUS SOLN WOULD KEEP THIS SYS AND ITS ASSOCD IMPACTS GENERALLY NORTH OF PA...BUT GIVEN SOME SPATIAL MDL DIFFS AND LOW/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT LONGER RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COURTESY OF A STG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST. CURRENT MEDIAN GUID BLEND HAS HIGHS PEAKING BTWN 85-90F ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUE-WED. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS. FOG AND SUB VFR CIGS IS IN THE PROCESS OF IMPROVING WITH GOOD DEAL OF MORNING SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...VFR MID CLOUD DECK ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING IN ON MOST AIRFIELDS BY LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH LOCALIZED IMPACTS PERSISTING INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN FALLS TODAY. OUTLOOK... THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE. FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
717 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FM THE CENTRAL GRT LKS IS PROVIDING M/CLR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING OVR CENTRAL PA. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL BLYR MSTR/WET SOILS HAS PROMOTED SHALLOW FOG/STRATUS FORMATION..PARTICULARLY IN THE N-CENTRAL RVR VALLEYS PER LATEST IR SATL/FOG CHANNEL. SKIES WILL START OFF M/SUNNY TDY...BUT EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND EXPAND BY MID-LATE MORNING...AS SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE COMBINES WITH POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ SPREADING SWD FM THE LWR LKS. ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE /CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CROSSING THE LWR LKS AND SRN NEW ENG AT 09Z/ WILL PIVOT SWD AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND HELP TO STEEPEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 6.5-7C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM ARE GENERALLY ON THE SAME PAGE IN SHOWING CVRG OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INCREASING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTN HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...MAY INCREASE POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE GIVEN BETTER CONFIDENCE. THE WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND ML CAPES MARGINAL...BUT THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVG...RANGING FM THE MID-UPPER 60S MTNS TO LOW 70S IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN VLYS. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY DURING THE AFTN HOURS THURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THURS NGT. THE LG SCALE MID-UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A SCHC OF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES. THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI-ZONAL ORIENTATION ON SAT...AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING A FEW DEGS WARMER EACH DAY. ALL MDL DATA SUGGESTS A WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS WILL CROSS THE UPPER GRT LKS EARLY SAT MORNING AND REACH UPSTATE NY/NEW ENG BY SAT EVE. CONSENSUS SOLN WOULD KEEP THIS SYS AND ITS ASSOCD IMPACTS GENERALLY NORTH OF PA...BUT GIVEN SOME SPATIAL MDL DIFFS AND LOW/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT LONGER RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COURTESY OF A STG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST. CURRENT MEDIAN GUID BLEND HAS HIGHS PEAKING BTWN 85-90F ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUE-WED. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS. FOG AND SUB VFR CIGS IS IN THE PROCESS OF IMPROVING WITH GOOD DEAL OF MORNING SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...VFR MID CLOUD DECK ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING IN ON MOST AIRFIELDS BY LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH LOCALIZED IMPACTS PERSISTING INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN FALLS TODAY. OUTLOOK... THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE. FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
558 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FM THE CENTRAL GRT LKS IS PROVIDING M/CLR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING OVR CENTRAL PA. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL BLYR MSTR/WET SOILS HAS PROMOTED SHALLOW FOG/STRATUS FORMATION..PARTICULARLY IN THE N-CENTRAL RVR VALLEYS PER LATEST IR SATL/FOG CHANNEL. SKIES WILL START OFF M/SUNNY TDY...BUT EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND EXPAND BY MID-LATE MORNING...AS SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE COMBINES WITH POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ SPREADING SWD FM THE LWR LKS. ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE /CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CROSSING THE LWR LKS AND SRN NEW ENG AT 09Z/ WILL PIVOT SWD AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND HELP TO STEEPEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 6.5-7C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM ARE GENERALLY ON THE SAME PAGE IN SHOWING CVRG OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INCREASING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTN HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...MAY INCREASE POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE GIVEN BETTER CONFIDENCE. THE WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND ML CAPES MARGINAL...BUT THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVG...RANGING FM THE MID-UPPER 60S MTNS TO LOW 70S IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN VLYS. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY DURING THE AFTN HOURS THURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THURS NGT. THE LG SCALE MID-UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A SCHC OF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES. THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI-ZONAL ORIENTATION ON SAT...AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING A FEW DEGS WARMER EACH DAY. ALL MDL DATA SUGGESTS A WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS WILL CROSS THE UPPER GRT LKS EARLY SAT MORNING AND REACH UPSTATE NY/NEW ENG BY SAT EVE. CONSENSUS SOLN WOULD KEEP THIS SYS AND ITS ASSOCD IMPACTS GENERALLY NORTH OF PA...BUT GIVEN SOME SPATIAL MDL DIFFS AND LOW/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT LONGER RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COURTESY OF A STG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST. CURRENT MEDIAN GUID BLEND HAS HIGHS PEAKING BTWN 85-90F ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUE-WED. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS. THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AM IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...CLEARER SKIES THAN PVS NIGHTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FORMATION OF FOG AN LOW CIGS AT ALL AIRFIELDS EXCEPT FOR MDT AND LNS. MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND PERSIST TO NEAR DAYBREAK. STILL SOME CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTN AND AGAIN THURSDAY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN IN RECENT DAYS. OUTLOOK... THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE. FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
920 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY BRING A RETURN TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 900 AM...A CHALLENGING FCST FOR THIS MORNING/S UPDATE. SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK-BUILD ACRS THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND NC PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP SHOW ISENT LIFT ATOP A WEAK IN SITU WEDGE COUPLED WITH THE VERY EDGE OF STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PROBABLY RESPONSIBLE. THESE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS LIFT SHUD WEAKEN AS CHANNELED VORT MAX (AND ASSOCIATED Q CONVERGENCE) EXITS TO THE EAST FROM ABOUT NOW THRU MIDDAY. LIFT WON/T COMPLETELY END TODAY...AND EASTERLY 850 MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KTS THRU THE DAY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING THRU THE DAY...TRANSITIONING FROM THE I-77 CORRIDOR TO MORE ALONG/INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WITH THAT SAID...THE CURRENT SHOWERS ARE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS THANKS TO WARM CLOUD PROCESSES (12Z GSO SOUNDING STILL SHOWS SLIGHT WARM NOSE AROUND 600MB). RAIN OVERNIGHT WAS HEAVY...WITH A FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF 1.5 TO 2" ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHERN CHARLOTTE METRO. STILL THINK WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT EXITING AND ISENT LIFT WEAKENING...FLOOD THREAT TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY WATCH. A FEW STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH AND ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS. SO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXCESSIVE RAIN/FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AT 0230 EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WAS LOCATED. THIS UPGLIDE IS SHOW TO WEAKEN AFTER 12Z IN THE NAM. A CHANNELED VORT LOBE WILL MOVE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TODAY...FOLLOW BY ANOTHER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST. WITH A MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...POPS WILL FAVOR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...AS A COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS UNDER LOW CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT RANGE WILL FEATURE AN UPPER PATTERN CHANGE AS THE OLD UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FINALLY MOVES AWAY. THE LAST CHANNELED VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH WEAK CONVERGENCE TOWARD THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...THAT SOME SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE REALLY STARTS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...SO THAT SHOULD BE IT FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MS DELTA/SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THIS FEATURE IN THE GFS AND ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH AGREE THAT A PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THAT IS QUITE FAVORABLE TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT LEAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE RAISED POP INTO THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE MTNS ACCORDINGLY. DEEP MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE RAISED INTO THE CHANCE RANGE EVERYWHERE FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT KCLT...IFR CIG HAS DEVELOPED AND SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK...AFTER WHICH A LOW VFR CIG WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSION LARGE ENOUGH TO FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH VFR VSBY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LOW VFR VSBY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY FOG JUST YET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM ENE. ELSEWHERE...KHKY WILL KEEP IFR CIG AND MVFR VSBY EARLY THIS MORNING IN RAIN SOAKED AIR. OTHER TAF SITES ARE VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBY AT KAVL...BUT AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE UPSTATE. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT AT KHKY AS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THERE IN WEAKENING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST IN MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELED DOWN VALLEY FROM THE SSE AT KAVL. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR VSBY AT MOST SITES BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY...EXCEPT KAND AND KGMU. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN AT KGSP THAN AT KAVL OR KHKY...BOTH OF WHICH HAD BETTER RAIN THIS MORNING. OUTLOOK...E-NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF AT LEAST MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG INTO THU. DRY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR FRI THRU THE WEEKEND. AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...ARK/JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
351 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...AND RETURNING CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. COMPACT MID/UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CIRCULATION. TO THE WEST...OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTH CENTRAL CO. HAVE SEEN ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND ALSO ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. MID/UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OK TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA THIS EVENING. STEERING FLOW IS STILL WEAK...SO SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT. HUNG ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING GIVEN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY LOWER THAN IN THE EAST AND NORTHWEST GIVEN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING ASIDE FROM DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST LAPS AND RAP ANALYSIS DATA SHOW MLCAPES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 1000-2500 J/KG RANGE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHWEST. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /20-30 KTS/ IS ALSO IN THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF COMPACT UPPER LOW. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IF STORMS MAKE IT IN...WHILE WEAKER SHEAR WILL KEEP STORMS MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY ACROSS THE EAST BUT THEY COULD BE STRONG OR BRIEFLY MARGINALLY SEVERE. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS OVER AN INCH WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A 20-30 KT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LLJ. ALSO MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DUE TO MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT VSBYS FROM FALLING REAL LOW. THE COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS INITIATE IN SOUTHERN CO/NORTHEAST NM DURING THE AFTERNOON EITHER ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IF THEY DO...CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR ONE MORE DAY THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE REMAINING OVER EASTERN NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...BELIEVE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO ANY CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO REBOUND...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...INDUCING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE...WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED OFF THIS WEEKEND...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SILENT POPS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE EXPANDING AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND MID /UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A QUASI- ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACTIVITY. KB && .FIRE WEATHER... NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE 30 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES AND SUNDAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EAST BEHIND THE DRYLINE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THIS TIME...SO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE FUELS ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL AND EFFECT ON FUELS SHOULD MITIGATE THESE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT. KB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 63 80 62 86 63 / 30 20 10 10 10 BEAVER OK 64 83 63 89 66 / 20 10 10 10 10 BOISE CITY OK 61 82 60 88 60 / 30 20 20 10 10 BORGER TX 64 81 65 88 68 / 30 20 10 10 10 BOYS RANCH TX 64 85 66 90 65 / 20 20 10 10 10 CANYON TX 63 80 63 86 62 / 30 20 10 10 10 CLARENDON TX 64 79 63 84 64 / 30 30 10 10 10 DALHART TX 59 82 62 90 60 / 20 20 20 10 10 GUYMON OK 63 83 63 89 66 / 20 10 20 10 10 HEREFORD TX 61 81 64 87 62 / 20 20 10 10 10 LIPSCOMB TX 66 81 63 85 68 / 40 20 10 10 10 PAMPA TX 62 79 61 85 64 / 30 20 10 10 10 SHAMROCK TX 65 80 63 84 66 / 40 30 10 10 10 WELLINGTON TX 66 81 65 87 65 / 40 30 10 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 07/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1122 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012 .UPDATE... THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND THE SUBSIDENT ZONE THAT HAS DOMINATED NORTH TEXAS IS BEING SHUNTED EAST IN THE PROCESS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS INVADED WESTERN ZONES AND WILL SOON BE LIFTING A BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER WHOSE MLCAPE VALUES ALREADY EXCEED 1000 J/KG. WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION AND FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL FORCING ALOFT...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SOON BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THAT WILL PROPAGATE FURTHER EAST INTO THE CWA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATE MORNING UPDATE ENHANCES POPS IN WESTERN ZONES. MOST OTHER EDITS INVOLVE HOURLY EVOLUTION OF WINDS AND TEMPS BASED ON ONGOING OUTFLOW AND FUTURE CONVECTIVE/OUTFLOW EVOLUTION. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND IMAGES BEING SENT NOW. 25 && .AVIATION... GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE TIMING AND INITIATION. SREF AND GFS HAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS METROPLEX TAF SITES ALL NIGHT...WHICH OBVIOUSLY DID NOT HAPPEN. HRRR AT 12Z (NOW) HAS PRECIP FROM SHERMAN EASTWARD INTO SRN AR. CURRENT NAM PRECIP IS ABOUT TWO COUNTIES TWO FAR EAST. POOR INITIALIZATION ACROSS THE BOARD GIVES LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION AT METROPLEX. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS TIMING OF STORMS DURING MAX HEATING ON TOWARDS SUNSET AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. HAVE DROPPED THE TEMPO GROUPS FROM THURSDAY MORNING AND LEFT VCTS BECAUSE MODELS SEEM TO BE DRIER IN THAT TIME PERIOD AS WELL. WILL HOPE THAT 12Z GUIDANCE IS INITIALIZED BETTER AND LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES TO STORM TIMING. 84 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SLOW-MOVING WARM CORE UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED NEAR SWEETWATER...LUBBOCK AND BIG SPRING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS STORMS. THIS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK BETTER ON RADAR AND WILL LIKELY HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW A BIT...DUE TO LATENT HEAT PROCESSES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE PW VALUES HIGHER FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW...AS THE DRIER AIR TENDS TO LIMIT THE HEAT FLUX. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING EAST OF THE CWA...WITHIN A SHEAR AXIS ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH TEXAS...EXCEPT FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST TODAY...BUT THE MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW...IMPACTED BY A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP TODAY. SEVERAL WRF MEMBERS ONLY HAVE A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS AND TONIGHTS ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN MOVE EAST...WEAKENING IN THE MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE NAM. THE NAM IS PLACING MOST OF ITS QPF SOUTH OF I-20...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TO THE NORTH. WILL STICK WITH THE NORTHERN SOLUTION...BUT THE EXACT LATITUDE THE MAIN FORCING TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS THE MOST RAINFALL. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL END PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS 850 TEMPS OF 25-29C WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. THE GFS SENDS A DEEP LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND THE MODEL IS PROGGING A COLD FRONT WITH PRECIP TO REACH THE NORTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY EVENING. NORTH TEXAS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT/PRECIP NORTH OF THE CWA. MEXMOS IS FORECASTING 30 POPS TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP THE SILENT 10S IN THE FORECAST. 85/NH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 71 85 69 87 / 70 70 60 50 20 WACO, TX 93 72 88 70 89 / 50 40 30 40 20 PARIS, TX 89 66 87 65 85 / 50 60 40 50 30 DENTON, TX 87 70 85 68 86 / 70 70 60 50 20 MCKINNEY, TX 88 68 84 66 86 / 60 70 60 50 30 DALLAS, TX 89 72 85 69 87 / 70 70 50 50 30 TERRELL, TX 90 70 85 68 86 / 50 70 50 50 30 CORSICANA, TX 93 71 86 70 87 / 50 60 30 50 30 TEMPLE, TX 93 71 85 70 89 / 40 30 30 30 20 MINERAL WELLS, TX 87 69 83 68 85 / 70 70 60 50 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 79/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
708 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012 .AVIATION... GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE TIMING AND INITIATION. SREF AND GFS HAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS METROPLEX TAF SITES ALL NIGHT...WHICH OBVIOUSLY DID NOT HAPPEN. HRRR AT 12Z (NOW) HAS PRECIP FROM SHERMAN EASTWARD INTO SRN AR. CURRENT NAM PRECIP IS ABOUT TWO COUNTIES TWO FAR EAST. POOR INITIALIZATION ACROSS THE BOARD GIVES LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION AT METROPLEX. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS TIMING OF STORMS DURING MAX HEATING ON TOWARDS SUNSET AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. HAVE DROPPED THE TEMPO GROUPS FROM THURSDAY MORNING AND LEFT VCTS BECAUSE MODELS SEEM TO BE DRIER IN THAT TIME PERIOD AS WELL. WILL HOPE THAT 12Z GUIDANCE IS INITIALIZED BETTER AND LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES TO STORM TIMING. 84 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SLOW-MOVING WARM CORE UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED NEAR SWEETWATER...LUBBOCK AND BIG SPRING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS STORMS. THIS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK BETTER ON RADAR AND WILL LIKELY HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW A BIT...DUE TO LATENT HEAT PROCESSES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE PW VALUES HIGHER FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW...AS THE DRIER AIR TENDS TO LIMIT THE HEAT FLUX. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING EAST OF THE CWA...WITHIN A SHEAR AXIS ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH TEXAS...EXCEPT FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST TODAY...BUT THE MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW...IMPACTED BY A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP TODAY. SEVERAL WRF MEMBERS ONLY HAVE A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS AND TONIGHTS ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN MOVE EAST...WEAKENING IN THE MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE NAM. THE NAM IS PLACING MOST OF ITS QPF SOUTH OF I-20...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TO THE NORTH. WILL STICK WITH THE NORTHERN SOLUTION...BUT THE EXACT LATITUDE THE MAIN FORCING TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS THE MOST RAINFALL. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL END PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS 850 TEMPS OF 25-29C WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. THE GFS SENDS A DEEP LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND THE MODEL IS PROGGING A COLD FRONT WITH PRECIP TO REACH THE NORTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY EVENING. NORTH TEXAS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT/PRECIP NORTH OF THE CWA. MEXMOS IS FORECASTING 30 POPS TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP THE SILENT 10S IN THE FORECAST. 85/NH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 71 85 69 87 / 70 70 60 50 20 WACO, TX 93 72 88 70 89 / 30 40 30 40 20 PARIS, TX 88 66 87 65 85 / 50 60 40 50 30 DENTON, TX 87 70 85 68 86 / 70 70 60 50 20 MCKINNEY, TX 88 68 84 66 86 / 70 70 60 50 30 DALLAS, TX 89 72 85 69 87 / 70 70 50 50 30 TERRELL, TX 90 70 85 68 86 / 60 70 50 50 30 CORSICANA, TX 93 71 86 70 87 / 50 60 30 50 30 TEMPLE, TX 93 71 85 70 89 / 30 30 30 30 20 MINERAL WELLS, TX 88 69 83 68 85 / 60 70 60 50 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHWARD LATE SATURDAY, PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA BY EARLY MONDAY, STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS...AS THEY HAVE BEEN MOST OF THE WEEK...WILL BE THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAST FEW SHOWERS RIDING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ACTIVITY...BEING DRIVEN BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE FLOW...PROBABLY DISSIPATES BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONFIRMS THIS THOUGHT...AND UNLESS TRENDS CHANGE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. PATCHY FOG IS TRYING TO FORM IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FOG WILL BE CARRIED INTO THE HOURS JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WHILE THE PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME DENSE (DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS)...IF IT DEVELOPS IT WILL BE HANDLED WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. THE AIRMASS IS WARMING FROM WITHIN...AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK NEAR 11 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW MIXING FROM ABOVE THIS LEVEL. MOS GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS TODAY...AND WITH A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW...THESE NUMBERS ARE ACCEPTED. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN THURSDAY. DEW POINTS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...AND AGAIN MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL START THE PROCESS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING A PAIR OF WEAK SPOKES ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET CONVECTION GOING. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIE FROM THE THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...WHERE MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST MEAN LAYER CAPE. THE OVERALL SHEAR PATTERN IMPROVES AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...WITH SHEAR VALUES REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NORTH. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER ORGANIZED CELLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND MORE LIKELY NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS HERE SUGGEST BETTER DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...AND DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE PAST FEW DAYS (WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVELS)...SO SMALL HAIL IS PROBABLY THE BEST STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER. AT THIS POINT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL NOT BE INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF QUESTIONS ABOUT COVERAGE. IN ANY EVENT...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS COULD MOVE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NEW JERSEY SHORE...SO THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE EXTENDED TO THESE AREAS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION COULD CUT OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AS MID LEVEL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM...ALLOWING CAPPING TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... ANY CONVECTION SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING...AS THE BEST INSTABILITY MOVES TO THE EAST AND OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COULD ROTATE THROUGH THE BROADLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE AIRMASS IN WARMING FROM WITHIN...SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. FOR THE MOST PART...LOWS WERE BASED ON THE MOS BLEND. IN NORMALLY COOLER AREAS...LOWS WERE NUDGED DOWN CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS NUMBERS...AS LIGHT WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WE START THE PERIOD OFF WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EASTWARD. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW BUT APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY WEEK IN NATURE. THESE WAVES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE HAS IMPROVED AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SEEM TO HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. STILL, JUST HOW FAST IT MOVES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN WARMER THAN THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL PRETTY WARM BUT HAVE COOLED WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 14-16C RANGE, AS OPPOSED TO THE 15-18C THEY WERE SHOWING ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS AVERAGE. THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND BY MONDAY MORNING SETTLES ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHICH SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES COOLER. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLOSER TO 12C, EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, IN THE LOWER 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY BUT WITH THE SURFACE FLOW REMAIN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HINTS THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OUR AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP NEAR THE 2 INCH MARK, WE COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. FOR THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH 1200 UTC AT MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE KRDG...KMIV AND KACY...AS THESE LOCATIONS SAW RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KRDG IS ALREADY IFR...AND COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KMIV AND KACY ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR IN FOG...AND COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR FOG BETWEEN 0800 UTC AND 1100 UTC. AFTER THE LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIFT AFTER 1200 UTC...A GENERAL VFR DAY IS EXPECTED. THERE IS MORE GRADIENT FLOW TODAY...SO GUSTS BETWEEN 18 AND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE THUNDER WOULD BE KABE AND KRDG. THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED YET...SINCE CONFIDENCE IN NOT HIGH ENOUGH...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH THE 1200 UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS. ANY LOCATION MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE 0300 UTC SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION...AS IT IS THIS MORNING...COULD BE TERMINALS THAT GET RAIN. ANY SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE. MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY WEST OF KPHL, IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LIMITS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE SNAPPED BACK TO THE SYNOPTIC WIND DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND HAVE DROPPED BACK BELOW 15 KNOTS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THE GRADIENT FLOW LOOKS TO BE MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR OVER THE COOLER WATER...AND THIS WILL DAMPEN ANY MIXING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MIXING WILL BE OVER THE DELAWARE BAY...AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE OCEAN. EVEN HERE...MIXING WILL BE LIMITED...SO WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS. IN FACT...FURTHER OFFSHORE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD RELAX ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO GO SOUTH...AND GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS (LIKE AT 44009). IN ANY EVENT....WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY TEND TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS...IN TWO PUSHES. THE FIRST PUSH WILL BE THIS EVENING...AND THE WARMER AIR OVER COOLER WATERS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING FOR THIS PUSH. THE SECOND PUSH LOOKS TO BE LATER (CLOSER TO 0900 UTC). THIS PUSH MAY HAVE A BIT MORE TRANSFER POTENTIAL AS THE AIR OVER LAND COOLS...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS...EVEN IN GUSTS. OUTLOOK... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GET GUSTY, AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAY APPROACH 5 FEET AROUND WEDNESDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THUS FAR HAS PEAKED ABOUT ONE-HALF BELOW THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BENCHMARK ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS...INCLUDING THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE UPPER BAY WILL ALSO PEAK BELOW THE BENCHMARK...AND TRENDS SUGGEST THE SAME WILL OCCUR ON THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED TO INDICATE THE END OF THE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AS THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES CONTINUE TO DROP AS WE MOVE AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON...THE THREAT FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD DIMINISH. THE MOST RECENT STORM SURGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE NEXT HIGH TIDE OF INTEREST (MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING) SHOULD REMAIN BE,LOW THE BENCHMARK...SO NO FURTHER ACTION APPEARS NECESSARY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...HAYES SHORT TERM...HAYES LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...HAYES/MEOLA MARINE...HAYES/MEOLA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING...HOW HOT DOES IT GET/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY...AND WINDS/HOW COOL DOES IT GET/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STILL A TROUGH...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE...AND TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT JET LEVEL WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...WOULD HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO THE GFS SINCE IT IS DOING THE BEST WITH DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ECMWF FOLLOWED BY THE NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. ECMWF WAS ESPECIALLY DOING WELL WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITION OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION REMAINED OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVED FURTHER EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER/NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN GOVERNED BY MESOSCALE INFLUENCES. MOST MODEL OUTPUT...EVEN THE HRRR AND RUC...HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FOR AS A LONG AS POSSIBLE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION/DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE AROUND...MAY AFFECT THE EXTENT OF THE FOG AS WELL. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR UPSTREAM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS WELL WEST. WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR WEST. GRADIENT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS BREEZY TO WINDY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. NWP IS THE COOLEST GUIDANCE OF THE BUNCH WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALL DEPENDS HOW FAST DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION LASTS PLUS WHEN WHATEVER STRATUS DEVELOPS ALSO BURNS OFF. DID TONE DOWN MAXES IN THE WEST A FEW DEGREES BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND MADE THE EAST THE WARMEST. SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT ON MAX TEMPERATURES AND THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE HANDLING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. HOWEVER DUE TO UPSTREAM RIDGING AND NCEP DISCUSSIONS...DO BELIEVE THAT SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MAYBE EVEN SLOWER. THERE LOOKS TO BE STRONGER MID/UPPER RIDGING BUT THE LEE TROUGH MAYBE FURTHER WEST WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE WINDS. BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS THIS THE BEST AT THIS TIME. ABOVE REASONING...850 TO 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND BLENDING OF VARIOUS NWP/2M GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. REFER BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION. WE LOOK TO STAY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST +15C. ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HOT...AN ISOLATED UPDRAFT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE EARLIER GUIDANCE PER EXPLANATION GIVEN ABOVE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z AND THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE LOOKS NOW TO HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH... IT STILL LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CINH. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. RATHER IMPRESSIVE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OCCUR AND A BRIEFLY TIGHT GRADIENT AS WELL. IF THIS WERE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WOULD SAY THAT THERE WOULD BE A DECENT CHANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A RAPID/BRIEF BURST OF WINDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE WINDS BY 18Z. EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCE IN MODEL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE EARLIER GUIDANCE WITH A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT WITH TONIGHTS LATER GUIDANCE. NAM IS BY FAR THE COOLEST. FRONT LOOKS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z. BASED ON THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND THE COLD AIR I SEE BEHIND IT UPSTREAM...DID TREND THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. EARLY MODEL RUNS FROM THE EVENING HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE NAM BY FAR WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE 06Z NAM MAINTAINED THIS. HOWEVER... OTHER MODELS NOW HAVE LESS PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE IT FURTHER SOUTH. SREF AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS AND MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AREA LOOKS FAR REMOVED FROM THE MAIN LIFT AND INSTABILITY. SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ABOVE REASONING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT AND WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CWA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS...MAY SEE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHERN TRACK WOULD PLACE THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KGLD...HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS WITH BEST CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG OVER EASTERN COLORADO. SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO HAVE STRUGGLED TO MOVE VERY FAR EAST...WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR REMAINING WEST OF THE KS/CO STATE LINE. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT SHIFT NORTH WITH A STABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT...SO DO NOT CURRENTLY PLAN ON INCLUDING PRECIP MENTION IN TAFS. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AT KMCK EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 PER REASONING ABOVE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE TROUGH COULD BE FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD MAKE LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. IF ECMWF WORKS OUT THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WOULD BE WEAK ALONG WITH THE WINDS AS WELL. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE RATHER LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED TO OUR WEST WHICH MAY CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AT THIS TIME CHOSE TO NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IF HAD TO WOULD SAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONDITIONS TO BE MET WOULD OVER THE COLORADO PORTION OF OUR AREA. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN HWO AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM....BULLER/PM AVIATION...DR FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 ...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 THE 08.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A STRONG 130 KT JET PUSHING ASHORE ACROSS KMFR (MEDFORD, OR) WITH A WEAKER JET STREAK YET CYCLONICALLY CURVED FROM KOTX (SPOKANE, WA) NORTHWARD TO CWEG (EDMONTON, AB). DOWNSTREAM, AN 80 KT JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS CWPL (PICKLE LAKE, ON) AND TURNING INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW FROM KOHX (NASHVILLE, TN) TO KRNK (BLACKSBURG, VA) TO KMHX (NEWPORT, NC). AT 500 HPA, COLD AIR OF -26 DEG C TO -23 DEG C EXTENDED FROM KSLE (SALEM, OR) TO CYZT (PORT HARDY, BC). FAIRLY SEASONAL 500 HPA TEMPERATURES OF -11 TO -10 DEG C EXTENDED FROM KABR (ABERDEEN, SD) TO KDDC (DODGE CITY, KS). ANOTHER COLD POOL W/ H5 TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND -21 DEG C TO -19 DEG C WAS OBSERVED ACROSS QUEBEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH. AT 700 & 850 HPA, MOST NOTICEABLE WERE THE TWO COLD POOLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE CANADA. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S DEG F SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DEG F WERE TAKING THE LONG WAY BEHIND A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER VIA THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS SW KANSAS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 THIS MORNING: ALL IS NOT QUIET ON THE WESTERN KANSAS FRONT. HAVE TWO FORECAST CONCERNS THAT HAVE STARTED TO APPEAR/TREND ON A WSR-88D MOSAIC MAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE COLORADO & THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THOSE TWO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FOG AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE TAKING THE "LONG WAY" (AKA ADVECTION) ACROSS THE HIGH TEXAS PLAINS WHEREAS DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ARE LOWER (MID TO UPPER 50S DEG F VERSUS AROUND 60 DEG F TOWARDS KDHT). NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND BUFKIT FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P`S SUGGEST THAT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE BORDER. SREF VISIBILITY PROGS ALSO SUGGEST HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG IN RECENT RUNS SO THIS MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN TERMS OF AERIAL COVERAGE. THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE. SECOND CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ROUGHLY WEST OF DODGE CITY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL RUNS FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST DECENT COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY/QPF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CAUSED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800 TO 700 HPA LAYER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS AS A RESULT. BOTH CORES OF THE WRF ARE ALSO SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TODAY: OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE ON THE BANAL SIDE. THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TYPICALLY DOES DURING THE DAY. MIXING ROUGHLY TO 750 HPA AND RESULTANT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWNWARD WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 80S DEG F). AFTER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS CLEARS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY. TONIGHT: SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...HAVE MID 60S DEG F IN THE GRIDS. A LACK OF SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS/500 HPA RIDGING/WEAK JET DYNAMICS DURING THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN 0 PERCENT POPS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 THE START OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE WARM AND WINDY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND +14 TO +16C 700MB TEMPERATURES SPREADS EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE FURTHER EAST 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 20S. 25C 850 MB TEMPERATURE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS STILL YIELDED HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES SO THE BASED ON THE NEW 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE DAY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW FORECAST BY THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS STILL FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS/NEAR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS BUT MID LEVELS WILL BE COOLING BY 00Z MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS COOLING, LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND MOISTURE/FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY LATE SUNDAY AND THEN EXPAND CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY EVENING RANGES FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 30 TO 40 KNOTS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IT DOES APPEAR THEY WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BY LATE DAY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT NOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED A FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET HOWEVER SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FURTHER GFS SUGGESTED. AS A RESULT WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER CONSALL MOS AND 850MB 00Z MONDAY ECMWF TEMPERATURES AS A GUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. HIGHS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ONLY TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION, 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE. ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE 850MB MOISTURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT I310 AND I315 LEVELS HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS LATE DAY. SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE WESTERLY FLOW MID TO LATE WEEK. EACH OF THESE WAVES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THEY PASS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING, TRACK OR STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE FEATURES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE LATER PERIODS. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK STILL LOOK TO BE MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S EACH DAY. CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THE 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 A FORECAST CONUNDRUM EXISTS FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WELL TWO. FOG AND CONVECTION PROSPECTS. FIRST FOR THE FOG, BUFKIT PROFILES AND MOS GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS TAKING THE LONG WAY UP FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF COMING DIRECTLY FROM OKLAHOMA. IN FACT, TD`S ARE LOWER ACROSS THE SOONER STATE THAN LAST NIGHT. AS A RESULT, AND AFTER CHECKING SREF/HRRR, I HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE TAFS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO STAY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. SECONDLY, THE 01Z HRRR IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 800-700 HPA WAA/FRONTOGENESIS THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS BEFORE INSERTING IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 18-23 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 87 65 93 67 / 20 0 10 10 GCK 88 65 97 67 / 20 0 0 0 EHA 87 65 99 64 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 87 65 97 66 / 20 0 10 0 HYS 88 66 94 69 / 10 0 10 10 P28 89 66 90 69 / 10 0 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN SHORT TERM...SUGDEN LONG TERM...BURGERT AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 ...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSIONS... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 THE 08.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A STRONG 130 KT JET PUSHING ASHORE ACROSS KMFR (MEDFORD, OR) WITH A WEAKER JET STREAK YET CYCLONICALLY CURVED FROM KOTX (SPOKANE, WA) NORTHWARD TO CWEG (EDMONTON, AB). DOWNSTREAM, AN 80 KT JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS CWPL (PICKLE LAKE, ON) AND TURNING INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW FROM KOHX (NASHVILLE, TN) TO KRNK (BLACKSBURG, VA) TO KMHX (NEWPORT, NC). AT 500 HPA, COLD AIR OF -26 DEG C TO -23 DEG C EXTENDED FROM KSLE (SALEM, OR) TO CYZT (PORT HARDY, BC). FAIRLY SEASONAL 500 HPA TEMPERATURES OF -11 TO -10 DEG C EXTENDED FROM KABR (ABERDEEN, SD) TO KDDC (DODGE CITY, KS). ANOTHER COLD POOL W/ H5 TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND -21 DEG C TO -19 DEG C WAS OBSERVED ACROSS QUEBEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH. AT 700 & 850 HPA, MOST NOTICEABLE WERE THE TWO COLD POOLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE CANADA. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S DEG F SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DEG F WERE TAKING THE LONG WAY BEHIND A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER VIA THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS SW KANSAS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 THIS MORNING: ALL IS NOT QUIET ON THE WESTERN KANSAS FRONT. HAVE TWO FORECAST CONCERNS THAT HAVE STARTED TO APPEAR/TREND ON A WSR-88D MOSAIC MAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE COLORADO & THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THOSE TWO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FOG AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE TAKING THE "LONG WAY" (AKA ADVECTION) ACROSS THE HIGH TEXAS PLAINS WHEREAS DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ARE LOWER (MID TO UPPER 50S DEG F VERSUS AROUND 60 DEG F TOWARDS KDHT). NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND BUFKIT FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P`S SUGGEST THAT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE BORDER. SREF VISIBILITY PROGS ALSO SUGGEST HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG IN RECENT RUNS SO THIS MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN TERMS OF AERIAL COVERAGE. THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE. SECOND CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ROUGHLY WEST OF DODGE CITY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL RUNS FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST DECENT COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY/QPF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CAUSED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800 TO 700 HPA LAYER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS AS A RESULT. BOTH CORES OF THE WRF ARE ALSO SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TODAY: OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE ON THE BANAL SIDE. THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TYPICALLY DOES DURING THE DAY. MIXING ROUGHLY TO 750 HPA AND RESULTANT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWNWARD WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 80S DEG F). AFTER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS CLEARS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY. TONIGHT: SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...HAVE MID 60S DEG F IN THE GRIDS. A LACK OF SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS/500 HPA RIDGING/WEAK JET DYNAMICS DURING THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN 0 PERCENT POPS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012 A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL AID IN THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO. WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS LIKELY TO PEAK NEAR 100 OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SETUP WILL BRING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE THE END OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 A FORECAST CONUNDRUM EXISTS FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WELL TWO. FOG AND CONVECTION PROSPECTS. FIRST FOR THE FOG, BUFKIT PROFILES AND MOS GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS TAKING THE LONG WAY UP FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF COMING DIRECTLY FROM OKLAHOMA. IN FACT, TD`S ARE LOWER ACROSS THE SOONER STATE THAN LAST NIGHT. AS A RESULT, AND AFTER CHECKING SREF/HRRR, I HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE TAFS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO STAY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. SECONDLY, THE 01Z HRRR IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 800-700 HPA WAA/FRONTOGENESIS THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS BEFORE INSERTING IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 18-23 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 87 65 93 67 / 20 0 10 10 GCK 88 65 97 67 / 20 0 0 0 EHA 87 65 99 64 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 87 65 97 66 / 20 0 10 0 HYS 88 66 94 69 / 10 0 10 10 P28 89 66 90 69 / 10 0 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN SHORT TERM...SUGDEN LONG TERM...BURKE AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 06Z TAFS... .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012 THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA DEPICTED THE AXIS OF THE 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH FAR WESTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND UTAH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THIS WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...FAIRLY MOIST AIR WAS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND HAD MANIFEST ITSELF AS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. THE GOING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND DON`T SEE ANY REASON TO CHANGE THAT NOW. THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WHERE 3000+ J/KG OF CAPE IS INDICATED. THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES CONSIDERABLE FARTHER EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED TO EASTERN COLORADO. IN ADDITION...THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL ARE KEEPING PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING UP AGAIN TONIGHT SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 50S UP AROUND I-70 IN CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DAYTIME MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012 A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL AID IN THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO. WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS LIKELY TO PEAK NEAR 100 OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SETUP WILL BRING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE THE END OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 A FORECAST CONUNDRUM EXISTS FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WELL TWO. FOG AND CONVECTION PROSPECTS. FIRST FOR THE FOG, BUFKIT PROFILES AND MOS GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS TAKING THE LONG WAY UP FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF COMING DIRECTLY FROM OKLAHOMA. IN FACT, TD`S ARE LOWER ACROSS THE SOONER STATE THAN LAST NIGHT. AS A RESULT, AND AFTER CHECKING SREF/HRRR, I HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE TAFS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO STAY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. SECONDLY, THE 01Z HRRR IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 800-700 HPA WAA/FRONTOGENESIS THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS BEFORE INSERTING IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 18-23 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 59 86 65 93 / 10 10 10 10 GCK 61 88 65 97 / 10 10 10 0 EHA 62 87 64 99 / 10 10 10 0 LBL 63 89 65 97 / 10 10 10 10 HYS 57 88 66 94 / 10 10 10 10 P28 60 86 66 90 / 10 10 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GERARD LONG TERM...BURKE AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1203 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .AVIATION... //DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CHANGE THE WEATHER MODE COMPARED TO THAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BEGIN TO CARRY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION THAT WILL STILL BE LEAN ON MOISTURE AND LESS PRONE TO CUMULUS FORMATION. MORE NOTICEABLE WILL BE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE FROM PTK NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER A VEIL OF HIGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REACH THE MBS REGION LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT THIS IS TOO MUCH DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF STORMS IN PROGRESS OVER THE PLAINS TO INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * NONE. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 331 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012 SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT LATEST RAP BASED MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS ARE HIGHLIGHTING MUCAPES OF APPROXIMATELY 200-500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS IS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM THE 12Z DTX RAOB BUT IN LOCKSTEP WITH 07.12Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. FORECAST SOUNDING DIAGNOSIS SHOWS SUBTLE 600-400MB WARMING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...IN TOW OF THE LATE MORNING SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THIS VERY SUBTLE WARMING APPEARS ENOUGH TO KNOCK OUT ANY STEEPER LAPSE RATES RESIDING IN THE MIDLEVELS. SO...WHILE AN ISO-SCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE HERE AT PEAK HEATING (SEE SAGINAW BAY CONVECTIVE FIELD)...OVERALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY MOVING FORWARD/NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE SAME CONVECTIVE VIGOR AS YESTERDAY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK MIDLEVEL WARMING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTREMELY LOW. EXPECT A NICE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN INTO THE 50S ALL AREAS. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING LARGE SCALE PATTERN DRIVING CONDITIONS IN RECENT DAYS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO REORIENT EASTWARD BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. LONGWAVE ADJUSTMENT WILL BE ANCHORED BY A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON CARVING INTO THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE PERIPHERY ALIGNED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WHILE THIS WILL BRIEFLY DAMPEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT FIELD AS THE ENTIRE RIDGE AXIS EASES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY....THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPER/STRENGTHENING WESTERLY GRADIENT ON THE NORTH PERIPHERY OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN THIS WELL MIXED PROFILE INTO 800 MB TEMPERATURES RESIDING IN THE 10C RANGE...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER 80S. WEAK MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPILLING EAST- NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WILL SCRAPE THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB TOWARD THE END OF THE HEATING CYCLE. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS 300-400 J/KG OF MUCAPE EMERGES IN A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. AFOREMENTIONED STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CREST THE UPPER RIDGE ARCING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY COMMENCE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION RESIDING THROUGH THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY...BEFORE EVENTUALLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST ARRAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDING FIRM IN PROJECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HOLD TO OUR NORTH AS IT ALIGNS EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PRIMARY BUT WEAKENING INSTABILITY GRADIENT. A LOWER PROBABILITY CERTAINLY EXISTS GIVEN THE SETUP FOR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT TO CLIP AT LEAST THE TRI-CITIES/ THUMB SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING...WORTHY OF A SMALL POP. REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY INCREMENTALLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REAMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ASSUMING NEARLY FULL INSOLATION AND A STANDARD MIXING PROFILE...THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. DEEP WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. EXPANSIVE HEIGHT FALL REGION TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...LOOSELY ORGANIZED CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MEANDERING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BEGIN THE GRADUAL TREK NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREE ON WHAT DEGREE THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING LARGER SCALE WESTERN TROUGH. 12Z GFS LOCKS ON MORE AGGRESSIVELY...DRIVING AN ATTENDANT PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. A ECMWF/CANADIAN CONSENSUS ALLOWS FOR MORE SEPARATION...LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO A CONSIDERABLY LESS DEEP UPSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH...LEAVING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TUESDAY PERIOD ATTENDANT WITH THE ARRIVING DEEPER HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC MONDAY SHOULD A THICKER HIGH CLOUD CANOPY EMERGE EARLY...ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH TO THE WARM LAYER BY THIS POINT STILL SUPPORTS HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 80S. MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK WITH NORTHWEST ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OFF OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AS THIS HIGH SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL MODERATE BY THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...AND WHILE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME OVER LAKE HURON. THIS INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....BT SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM....MR MARINE.......CB YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1236 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENT... WITH A PROGRESSIVELY NARROWING SHARP RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA... BRACKETED BY A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONTINENT AND A SECOND UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GENERAL THEME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO BE DISSOLVE TO SOME EXTENT AS IT BROADENS AND PUSHES EAST WHILE DISPLACING THE EASTERN TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL WORK THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST DURING THAT TIME... AND EVENTUALLY EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY... BRINGING OUR CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL.. THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE COURSE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE SPEED WITH WHICH IS DOES SO IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN A FAIR DEGREE OF DIFFERENCE IN THE GFS... ECMWF... AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS HOLDING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS MUCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF... WHICH RIDES IT NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY FAIRLY QUICKLY. FOR NOW... WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST... WHICH MEANS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER PERIODS BEYOND MONDAY IS FAIRLY LOW. TEND TO PREFER THE SOMEWHAT FASTER FRONTAL ARRIVAL ADVERTISED BY THE GFS... NAM... AND SREF ON SUNDAY IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF GIVEN THE STRONG JET CURRENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE OUT WEST AND THE SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST WHICH IS ALREADY STARTING TO APPEAR. FOR TONIGHT... MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWFA... WITH THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUING TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SHIFT NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT... BUT WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME ACTIVITY BEFORE THAT OCCURS WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG REMAINING IN PLACE AND SOME HIGHER RH VALUES NEAR THE ELEVATED LFC FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN NEAR THAT AREA OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... SO KEPT SOME POPS IN FOR THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE THE WARM SECTOR REALLY WORK INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP WORKING ACROSS THE AREA... WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER... WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GETTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED EAST BY THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE EVOLUTION AND EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM... GFS... AND ECMWF. HOWEVER... ALL SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DEGREE TO OUR NORTHWEST... MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN CANADA BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH ITS ATTENDANCE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT... THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TO OUR NORTH... BUT GIVEN TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WE SHOULD HAVE AMPLE MLCAPE IN PLACE WITH VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG... AS WELL AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WE WORK INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIMITED HOWEVER... GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT SO FAR TO OUR NORTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST... AT THIS POINT... THAT OUR MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE DETAILS SHOULD CERTAINLY COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING... WITH PERHAPS SOME SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE DEGREE TO WHICH THAT OCCURS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON WHETHER REALITY WINDS UP MORE SIMILAR TO THE GFS OR ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS... WHICH IS SLOWER TO KICK THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST... WOULD CERTAINLY SUGGEST LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS WELL OUT OF THE AREA AT THAT POINT... AND WOULD HAVE COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER FOR US. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY... DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT RATHER THAN INCLUDE A CHANCE MENTION FOR SOMETHING ON DAY SIX. DID INCLUDE A MENTION FROM LATER WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY BY THURSDAY... AS THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS THAT WE WOULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION BY THAT POINT. .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ OUTSIDE OF WEST CENTRAL WI...JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN WI...BUT SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE. VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. KMSP...VFR EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AIRPORT. MUCH STRONGER S-SW WINDS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ TRH/CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1225 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE FORECAST CYCLE WITH A LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15-20 KT BETWEEN 14-15Z AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT QUICKLY WITH RAPID HEATING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/ UPDATE...PUSHED BACK SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST CWA AS THESE CELLS ARE TAKING THEIR TIME MAKING THEIR WAY EAST. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL REALIZE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL WEATHER SITUATION TONIGHT/TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK A LOT LIKE THE PAST 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BEING A BIT WINDIER. 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD 1020MB HIGH OVER THE IA/MO/IL BORDER AREA...WHILE OFF TO THE WEST A 1006MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND NEAR THE WY/SD BORDER. IN BETWEEN...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT MIXING INTO THE 800-750MB LEVEL HAS PROMOTED A BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH IN WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY LIVED UP TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD FALL A HAIR SHORT OF TARGET VALUES GIVEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGH CIRRUS COVER. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW MEANDERING NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER. UPSTREAM...A TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED 500MB LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...A WELL- DEFINED LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM EASTERN WY TO CENTRAL MT IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST REGIONALLY...WITH THIS WAVE ALREADY KICKING OFF SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS IN THE WY/SD/NE BORDER AREA. FOR THE 00Z-12Z NIGHT PERIOD...MADE ONLY ONE CHANGE OF NOTE TO POPS/WEATHER. INSTEAD OF HAVING SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE 6-HOUR BLOCK FROM 00Z-06Z AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD...OPTED TO SHIFT THIS FORWARD BY 3 HOURS...INSTEAD HIGHLIGHTING THE 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN ONLY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE CWA...OR GENERALLY WEST OF A GREELEY-BEAVER CITY LINE. AND ONLY KEPT THESE CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT AT THAT...AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TARGET THE DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST NEB. LEANING ON HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...HRRR AND 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM...EXPECTATION IS THAT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE FIRING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEB...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE CWA. OPTED TO PULL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING OUT OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH IS LINE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...BUT DEFINITELY MADE SURE TO KEEP A STRONG STORM MENTION FOR 50 MPH WINDS/PENNY SIZE HAIL IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO GET INTO THE CWA. THAT IS OF COURSE NO GUARANTEE THAT IT WILL GET IN...AND THUS ONLY THE 20 POPS...AS THE HRRR AND ALSO THE 18Z NAM/12Z GFS JUST BARELY BRING QPF INTO THE EDGE OF THE CWA BEFORE REALLY FADING IT OUT. JUST DON/T SEE MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT UNLESS FOR SOME REASON A MAJOR EASTWARD-SURGING COLD POOL GETS GOING...AS BY THE TIME CONVECTION SHOULD GET INTO THE CWA ANTICIPATE MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO ONLY BE AROUND 500 J/KG...WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 20KT OR LESS. TURNING TO OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER LOW TEMPS BY A SOLID 4-5 DEGREES BASED ON TRENDS FROM PAST FEW NIGHTS...NOW BRINGING MOST OF THE CWA DOWN INTO THE 58-60 RANGE. DESPITE SOUTHERLY BREEZES REMAINING A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...JUST DON/T SEE HOW TEMPS CAN HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S ALL NIGHT WITHOUT HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. FOR THE FRIDAY DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE AS IT ALREADY WAS...AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENS A BIT AND BECOMES QUASI ZONAL...AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WELL UP INTO CANADA...AND THE PARENT UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT DEEPER INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. DESPITE THE DRY FORECAST...WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE SHOWER AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING WITH SOME HINT OF 700MB THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND...BUT JUST CANNOT JUSTIFY INSERTING MORE THAN SILENT VERY LOW POPS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMP-WISE...MADE ALMOST NO CHANGE WHATSOEVER TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE 87-91 RANGE...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND WITH MIXING ADVERTISED TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL PER NAM SOUNDINGS. IT WILL BE A BIT WINDIER AS WELL THANKS TO HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA REALIZING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 MPH. ALONG THESE LINES...AND BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED TODAY...LOWERED DEWPOINTS QUITE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ORDER OF 6-8 DEGREES...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING/MIXING HOURS. LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD RIDGING...WHILE A TROUGH SITS OVER THE EAST COAST AND A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL IN PLACE...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST/SERN CONUS...AND LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEN THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE RIDGE AXIS GETS PUSHED EAST BY THE PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THINGS STAYING CAPPED OFF WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE 13-16C RANGE. DID INCREASE WINDS A TOUCH ON SATURDAY INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS SFC LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB/NW KS AREA. AS FAR AS HIGHS GO...HAD TRENDED THEM UP YESTERDAY...AND WILL KEEP THEM FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH 90S EXPECTED CWA-WIDE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE MODELS AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WHILE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A QUICKER SOLUTION...THERE IS NOT COMPLETE AGREEMENT. AT 12Z SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE CENTRAL MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S/SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AS FAR AS THE LOCATION OF THE SFC FRONT GOES...BASICALLY RANGES FROM A QUICKER NAM/SREF WITH THE FRONT PUSHING ROUGHLY A THIRD OF THE WAY IN...TO THE ECMWF WHICH STILL HAS IT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO WRN KS. THROUGH THE DAY THAT STORY REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...THE NAM/SREF/GFS ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE...SHOWING THE FRONT OUTSIDE THE E/SE CORNER OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS A TOUCH BEHIND. THOUGH CONSIDERED INSERT A SLIGHT POP ACROSS THE FAR EAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DIDNT WANT TO FLIP FLOP THE FORECAST...AND WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE IF THE EC SPEEDS UP...OR THE OTHERS SLOW DOWN. INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE FASTER TREND IN THE MODELS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...BASICALLY TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. LEFT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND CONSIDERED TAKING PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT COMPLETELY ACROSS THE NW...BUT WANT TO WAIT AND MAKE SURE THIS TREND STICKS. CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...INSTABILITY NOT AN ISSUE...HAVE BETTER FORCING WITH THE FRONT/WAVE...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS BETTER BUT NOT GREAT. WITH THE INCREASED CHANCE OF A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE TRICKY. DID TREND BACK DUE TO THE QUICKER TIMING...WITH MID 80S IN THE NW TO NEAR 90 IN THE SE...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL TIMING CHANGES WOULD AFFECT THOSE FORECAST HIGHS. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HINT AT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE ACTIVITY STARTING IN THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT WITHOUT BETTER AGREEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT. A REINFORCING FRONT/SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S BUT DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 40S/LOW 50S BY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS AS WE GET INTO WED/THURS...AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES TO CROSS THROUGH THE REGION..AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS POSSIBLY DRIFTING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WANT TO SEE BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING POPS AT THIS POINT. NOT EXPECTING BIG CHANGES IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
330 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FAIR AND WARM WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THROUGH DAYBREAK...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH RADAR SHOWING THAT SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY HAVE TAPERED OFF. TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE STILL FAIRLY WIDE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. THIS SAID...DO EXPECT THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. FOR THE MOST PART...THE GENERAL TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CONSENSUS QPF AMONG THE NAM/RGEM/GFS ALL REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HRRR IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE KEYING ON THE LAKE BREEZES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT IT WAS A BIT OVERDONE YESTERDAY...AND GIVEN THE DRY AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT THERE WILL BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. HAVE SOLID CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER TODAY SOUTH AND WEST OF ROCHESTER. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THIS FORECAST TO DIVE TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NORTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE WILL HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY. NAM/RAP FORECAST SUGGEST ML CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES. WHILE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...WIND PROFILES FORECAST SOME WIND SHEAR FROM 925 MB TO 700 MB...SUPPORTING SOME ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. WILL ADD A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN ZONES/GRIDS/HWO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION...A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTION WILL APPROACH EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT...ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER METRO AREAS...RANGING TO THE MID-50S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...AND TRACKS ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A DECENT 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY...AND AT LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE LOOKING A DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CONCENTRATING THE BEST OVERALL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TIMING-WISE...A CONSENSUS OF THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL COME BETWEEN MID SATURDAY MORNING AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FASTER AND MORE INCONSISTENT 00Z GFS DISCARDED AS A FAST OUTLIER. WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT... WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS INDICATED OTHERWISE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN PLAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 80 IN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO GRADUALLY FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF A WARMER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE A RETURN TO QUIETER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BOTH AFTERNOONS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THEREFORE A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH...AS WELL AS A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C AND +16C ON SUNDAY AND THE +16C TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY...EXPECT SURFACE READINGS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WHEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN OUR NORMALLY WARMEST LOCATIONS. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE FOR FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SULTRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC-BASED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VACILLATE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE JUST KEPT BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS IN PLAY FOR BOTH DAYS FOR NOW. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY... THOUGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL /MID-UPPER 70S/ WITH 850 MB READINGS ONLY FALLING BACK TO THE +10C TO +14C RANGE. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS FAIRLY DRY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THERE IS A LIGHT BUT DETECTABLE WIND OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES SEE THE FOG POTENTIAL AS MINIMAL AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT MORE STABLE IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT LIMITING INSTABILITY. FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUF/ROC/IAG/JHW)...EXPECT TODAY TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE. ART WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE AFTERNOON PRESENTING A PERIOD OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS ON MID-AFTERNOON TIMING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY PASS ACROSS OR NEAR ART BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...ARES OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED TSTMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE...AND WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS/WAVES WILL FALL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE ON EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE BREEZE COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...APFFEL SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
349 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUE INTO MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN VIRGINIA ARE DISSIPATING AS FORECAST BY THE HRRR MODEL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE STATE TODAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FAVOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AT THIS TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY CAPPED AT 645 MB DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A RISING HEIGHT FIELD. THIS CAP WILL STRONGLY INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SEA BREEZE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND AROUND 80 BEACHES UNDER SUNNY SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE FORECAST TO BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND. AT THE BEACHES LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PRODUCE MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL BE DRY AND DOMINATED BY HIGH PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. A WEAK UPR TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD SLOWLY EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK... AND BEGIN TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN E NC. RECENT ECMWF BRINGS IN UNSETTLED WEATHER A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER THINKING...AND HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 08/00Z GEM MODEL. GFS IS A SLOW OUTLIER SO DID NOT GIVE THIS SOLN MUCH WEIGHT. RETURN FLOW BEGINS MON WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRES MIGRATING EASTWARD. HTS BEGIN TO FALL MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS UPR LOW MOVES EAST WITH ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION. ADDED CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACCORDANCE... WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS PWATS INC TO NEARLY 2 INCHES...AND WITH BETTER UPR LEVEL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INC. ADDED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS AS WELL...THOUGH WEAK SHEAR WILL YIELD UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO WED AND POSSIBLY BEYOND AS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO ADVANCE OUT OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A STABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN NC. EXCEPTION WILL BE AT PGV WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST SIMILAR THAT WHICH OCCURRED THERE LAST NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUE...THOUGH COULD BE SOME EARLY MORNING BR AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS INCREASING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS UPR TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT THIS MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP IN THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF LOOKOUT AND REMAINING 10 KT SOUTH. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 6 TO 8 SECONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...SW FLOW WILL INC LATE SAT AS HIGH PRES RETREATS FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB SCA HOWEVER...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. THESE WINDS WILL LINGER INTO SUN AS THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SE COAST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET...LESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS COULD DIMINISH A BIT MON AND TUE AS SFC HIGH RIDGES CLOSER TO SHORE...THOUGH WILL REMAIN S TO SW. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JME/TL MARINE...JME/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
156 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH MIDDAY. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 1025 PM THURSDAY... 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROUGH STILL HANGING OUT ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE 250MB JET OVER NC AND VA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DPVA PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NC BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. THE SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH VA ARE BEING DRIVEN BY THIS DPVA AND LINGERING INSTABILITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THEY WILL MAKE IN INTO CENTRAL NC. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDED THE TIME THROUGH 06Z GIVEN THE FORECASTED TRACK OF VORTICITY MAX AS THE TROUGH BEINGS TO PUSH OFFSHORE. THE 21Z HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE SHOWERS MAKING IT TO THE VA/NC BORDER BY 06Z BUT FALLING APART AS IT DOES SO. SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 22Z AND THE 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW.AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA... BRINGING A MUCH WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKS END AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE SFC RIDGE STILL CENTERED TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY... FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE AS TODAY...BUT WARMING BETWEEN H5-H7 WILL CAP DEVELOPING DAYTIME CU. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS UNDER THIS RIDGE AND GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 60 AS THE SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST. EXPECT VERY SHALLOW DAYTIME CU AND VERY WARM TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. ON SUNDAY WE`LL SEE AN ELONGATED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER NE TX AND LA GRADUALLY DRIFTING NE ALONG THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT DRY AND WARM MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PRECLUDE PRECIP. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...SO WE`LL SEE HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 240 PM... THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES A TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE IN BETWEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HEIGHTS IS NOTED ACROSS TX AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT MARGINALLY CLOSES OFF. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME AND THE TX/GULF LOW OPENS AND LIFTS NORTH AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. EVENTUALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH REACHES THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY AND THE NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER FEATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF UPPER LOW AND THE TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON DAYS 6/7 ARE MORE UNCERTAIN. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DECREASES WED AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE WEST WHERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT AND GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. WILL CAP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES. BUT WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND AT LEAST SOME MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY HIGHER. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY REDUCING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE CONTRACTS FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. -BLAES && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 155 AM FRIDAY... ASIDE FROM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF PRE-DAWN MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KRWI...AND A PRECEDING SLIGHT CHANCE OF A VFR SHOWER ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SOME PREVAILING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 13-20Z...THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD: RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A SLOW-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WAVE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS MON-TUE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...KC/NP SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1237 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST BUT IS FORECAST BY THE HRRR MODEL TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING EASTERN NC. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER POPPING UP BEFORE DAWN BUT WITH FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS PRODUCING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWERED MINS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S INLAND (LOWER 60S COAST) AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDS EAST AS BROAD TROF PUSHES OFF THE COAST. AN ISOLD SHOWER CUD DEVELOP ALONG SEABREEZE BUT MAINLY WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT UNDER THE NW FLOW ALOFT. DOWNSLOPE AND RISING THICKNESSES BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND OF THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 FOR OBX. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 2 PM THU...WHEN COMPARED WITH HPC SURFACE FEATURES THE 00Z ECMWF LINES UP VERY WELL SO USED IT FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WARM AND DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST AND REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. ON MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE GETS ERODED FROM WEST BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES ADVANCING EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS. THE CUTOFF AND TROF WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A WEAK TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP ADVANCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A STABLE ARIMASS IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN NC. EXCEPTION WILL BE AT PGV WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST SIMILAR THAT WHICH OCCURRED THERE LAST NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE/ AS OF 2 PM THU...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS ARE IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH 13 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL AFFECTING THE NORTHERN BEACHES. THIS SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY LEADING TO A LOWER RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE NORTHERN AREAS. LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE/ AS OF 2 PM THU...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS IN STORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BECOME SOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY. SEAS RUNNING 2-4 FEET. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC/JME NEAR TERM...CTC/JME SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...CTC/BTC/JME/HSA MARINE...CTC/BTC/JME/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TODAY...THEN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MINNESOTA. REGARDING THE DEEP TROUGH...500MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 2 BELOW NORMAL. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PROFILER AND RADAR DATA SHOWED AN 850MB JET OF 30-40 KT FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND WARMTH. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C IN THIS JET AREA...COMPARED TO 14C AT DLH AND LA CROSSE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS IS QUITE INTERESTING...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE...I.E. VALUES GREATER THAN 1 INCH...SITTING MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. VALUES DROP TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...MISSOURI AND IOWA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MINNESOTA WHERE VALUES ARE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAXIMA OF MOISTURE IS FUELING CONVECTION THAT HAS FIRED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL DPVA FORCED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE ARE ALSO ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT SOME...IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME FORM OF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST BECAUSE OF THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE IS CRITICAL TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SINCE IT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE...GRADUALLY SPREADING CAPPING NORTHWARD AND BRING IN THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SEEN TO OUR SOUTH. FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION NORTH OF I-94 WHERE 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE A TREND THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE CONVECTION TO LIFT NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 WHERE DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH CONTINUED 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. IN FACT...THE OVERALL FORCING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FAIRLY WEAK...AND AS SUCH KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20-40 RANGE. SHOULD WE GET SOME STORMS IN OUR AREA...MAINLY JUST TAYLOR COUNTY WOULD HAVE A SHOT TO SEE SEVERE CONVECTION...IN THE 21-03Z WINDOW WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE QUIET WITH THE MAX MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 15-16C BY 18Z...DRY GROUND AND A BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 80S...WITH MOST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW READINGS AROUND 90 ARE POSSIBLE TOO. THE COMBINATION OF A WARMER DAY TODAY AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE 60S. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A WARM SECTOR FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WELL AGREED UPON TO AT MOST IN EASTWARD PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS MEANS ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A SLIM SHOT OF SOMETHING COMING INTO SOUTHEAST MN VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...IF THE FRONT CAN CONVECT AND CONVECTION CAN SPREAD EAST FAST ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...WITH THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE AREA (LOWEST ON SATURDAY)...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 850MB TEMPS OF 17-19C ON BOTH DAYS...THE DRY AIRMASS AND DRY GROUND...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALL FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MIXING. SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. ALTHOUGH 850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WOULD NORMALLY NOT SUPPORT RECORD LEVELS...ONLY BEING 1-1.5 ABOVE NORMAL...LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 93-96 RANGE. THEREFORE...WE MAY GET CLOSE TO RECORDS. ANTICIPATING LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE 60S...AIDED BY THE DRY AIRMASS. DID STAY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS/GROUND. SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST. WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN MORE TO EITHER RIGHT ON THE FRONT OR POST-FRONTAL. THERE ARE DECENT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS THAT COME INTO THE AREA...ABOUT 50-70 METERS IN 12 HOURS AT 500MB. THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGING UP TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT PLUS THE INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE AND OELWEIN. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS MEAGER...DUE TO THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR POST-FRONTAL. IN FACT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE 0-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 20-25KT. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5-4 KM AND MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE NOT FAVORABLE EITHER FOR SEVERE. MAYBE AT MOST WE END UP WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 60S ON TAP...PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE 08.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIAL UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AT 12Z MONDAY SHOULD HEAD UP INTO ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AGAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINTAINED 60 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS. IN FACT...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE LOCATIONS LIKE ROCHESTER COULD END UP DRY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE...THEN COMES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DID MAINTAIN SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS UP...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ABLE TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD END UP AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY...DUE TO 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C TO 6-10C. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20 PERCENT CHANCES...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. UPPER RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD UP INTO OUR AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO AT LEAST NORMAL BY THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SHAPING UP AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...LIKE THIS WEEKEND...WELL AGREED UPON BY THE LAST COUPLE ECMWF...GFS AND CFS RUNS. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY 1120 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012 MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...SO HAVE KEPT THE TAFS DRY ON FRIDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THIS FRONT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT KICKS IN. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS UP IN THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1027 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM UPDATE... LATE MORNING FOG WAS MAINLY OVER EAST COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST MASS...BUT IS TRENDING TO DISSIPATION. ONE AREA MOVED NORTH INTO NANTUCKET RIGHT AFTER THEY CLEARED FROM A PREVIOUS FOG AREA. WE EXPECT THIS SECOND ONE TO BREAK/THIN BY MIDDAY BUT FOG CAN BE A TOUGH CHARACTER AT TIMES. WHERE THE FOG HAS BROKEN...TEMPS SHOT INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...SO EXPECTED MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. BOSTON WINDS WERE SOUTH MID MORNING BUT THE WEAK FLOW SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A TURN TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL. WE DELAYED THE SHIFT A LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST BUT OTHERWISE HAVE A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MASS EAST COAST. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH FORECAST CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND LI/S -3 TO -5. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS BOTH LOW AND HIGH EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET ARRIVING OVER EASTERN NY AT 18Z AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 21Z-03Z AND DEPARTING 03Z-06Z. PER THE ALBANY MORNING SOUNDING...AND WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KNOTS AT 850 MB DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE 1000 FEET. WOULD EXPECT MULTICELLS/SHORT LINES WITH POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A FEW BOWS. AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS SOUTHERN NH/CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASS AND SOMEWHAT LESSER IN NORTHERN CT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SUNSET WILL MEAN THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF US AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING 00Z-06Z. SO EXPECTING A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STALLED COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS...SO NOT AS CONCERNED FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THINKING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME WILL BE ACROSS CT...BUT THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE JUST YET. USED A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * TEMPERATURE INCREASE THROUGH MID-WEEK. * HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL START OF NEXT WEEK. * FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE LEVEL... GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR START OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TIMING FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL AS STRONG COLD FRONT FOR MID WEEK AS THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. DETAILS... MODELS/PATTERN... 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN MODEST AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY. NOTICED THE ECMWF IS A TAD MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS RUN COMPARED TO PREV AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. BELIEVE SHORTWAVE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL INTERRUPT THE FLOW BY TUES INTO WED. DYNAMIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH WED/THURSDAY HOWEVER STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES AND TIMING AS THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTER OF THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF THE LESS AMPLIFIED. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS FORM A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD EFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH NW TO SE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE FRONT...SO EXPECT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ESP ACROSS CT AND SOUTHERN RI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL. TEMPS FOR SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH COOLER COAST DUE TO SEA BREEZES. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND HPC ALL AGREE WITH RIDGING OCCURRING AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY SLIDES OFF SHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY ONWARD... SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS ON TIMING OF DYNAMIC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN TIMING DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE. BELIEVE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THERE AREA STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE STILL ON EXACT TIMING. UNCERTAIN ON EXACT EXIT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY DYNAMIC SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THUNDER MENTIONING. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IN SOUTHEAST MA AND 1/4 MILE VSBYS ON NANTUCKET SHOULD IMPROVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN NH/W MA/N CT WITH BRIEF LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STRONGER TSTMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR IN GENERAL...BUT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS S NH/NW MA. SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E AND NE MA/S CENTRAL NH. S OF THERE...MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE OCCURRING MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY 430-7 PM. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER 18Z. TSTMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTM DIMINISHES AFTER 02Z. ALSO A CHANCE OF IFR IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DOMINATE ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. MON INTO TUES...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE... ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SAT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT VSBYS AND CAUSE GUSTY WINDS SAT NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE BELOW SCA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS WILL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO SCA. EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP AND GUSTY WINDS TO OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
951 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY HAVE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS N FL WITH A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FAR WESTERN GOFMEX. AT THE SAME TIME THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC. THESE SYSTEMS ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS S FL AND AIDING IN THE TRANSPORT OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR CONVEVTION TO FIRE UP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE LAKE OKEE REGION. THE HRRR WHICH PERFORMS QUITE WELL IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT FROM GLADES TO CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTIES BY NOON AND THEN BUILDING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE DISCUSSION. SO THE EMPHASIS WILL BE GENERALLY BE INLAND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY ZONE BUT ALL IN ALL WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE COULD GET AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING DOES SHOW SOME DRYING OCCURRED IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH IN TURN WILL ALSO HELP IN THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ALONG WITH THE POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ AVIATION...A VRY MOIST SW WND FLOW ALOFT OVER S FLA ATTM WITH SOME SHRA DVLPG OFF AND ON OVER THE INTERIOR WHICH HAV BEEN MOVG NE AND INTO THE ATLC. ALL TERMINALS VFR THRU 16Z THOUGH VCSH PSBL SE AND AT KAPF WITH VRY BRIEF MVFR CIG. AFT 16Z E COAST TERMINALS VCTS WITH TSRA PSBL THRU 00Z THEN VCSH. GUSTY WNDS PSBL WITH TSRA AND LCLLY HVY RA. SFC WNDS SSW-SW < 10 KTS WITH A PSBL SSE SEA BRZE DVLPG AFT 14Z. AT KAPF...VCSH INITIALLY AND TSRA PSBL BUT WILL AMD AS NEEDED WITH VCTS AFT 14Z. SFC WND CALM ATTM BUT WL BCM SSW-SW ARND 10 KTS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ DISCUSSION... IT REMAINS VERY HUMID THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TOWARDS GLADES COUNTY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN KEYS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MIAMI. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN...AROUND THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN/FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...AND A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF TODAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY TODAY. SO DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE HELPING SPARK CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE PUSHING RIGHT UP AGAINST SOUTH FLORIDA..THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. CLOUDINESS TODAY COULD LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY A LITTLE...AND WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 90 BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THE REGION TODAY...SO BUMPED UP POPS TO 70 TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...AND AROUND 60 PERCENT SOUTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY TROPICAL...WITH MAINLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND PWATS AOB 2 INCHES. SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THE SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SO THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH NORTHWARD...LOWERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION COULD ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIED. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST...WITH MAINLY LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO ROTATE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF. SO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION WILL DICTATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK. THIS FEATURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO AT LOW END CHANCE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. AVIATION... A VRY MOIST SW WND FLOW ALOFT OVER S FLA ATTM WITH SOME SHRA DVLPG OVR THE FLA STRAITS AND SE FLA WITH A LRG AREA OF SHRA MOVG UPON THE W CNTRL FLA COAST AND MOVG TWD LK OKEE. ALL TERMINALS VFR THRU 16Z THOUGH VCSH PSBL SE AND AT KAPF WITH VRY BRIEF MVFR CIG. AFT 16Z E COAST TERMINALS VCTS XCPT PROB30 AT KPBI /KFLL AND KFXE WITH VCTS ELSWHR E COAST. TSRA PSBL THRU 00Z THEN VCSH. GUSTY WNDS PSBL WITH TSRA AND LCLLY HVY RA. SFC WNDS SSW-SW < 10 KTS WITH A PSBL SSE SEA BRZE DVLPG AFT 14Z. AT KAPF...VCSH INITIALLY AND TSRA PSBL BUT WILL AMD AS NEEDED WITH VCTS AFT 14Z. SFC WND CALM ATTM BUT WL BCM SSW-SW ARND 10 KTS. MARINE... THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER ALL THE LOCAL WATERS...AS THEY SWING FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TODAY TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 89 75 89 75 / 70 50 50 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 90 78 90 78 / 60 40 40 20 MIAMI 90 78 90 78 / 60 40 40 20 NAPLES 87 76 90 76 / 70 40 50 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
546 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ENOUGH MIXING HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FROM NARROWING. SO REMOVED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. WHAT PRECIPITATION THERE WAS HAS FINALLY ENDED SO WILL NOT NEED TO EXTEND ANY CHANCES INTO THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING...HOW HOT DOES IT GET/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY...AND WINDS/HOW COOL DOES IT GET/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STILL A TROUGH...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE...AND TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT JET LEVEL WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...WOULD HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO THE GFS SINCE IT IS DOING THE BEST WITH DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ECMWF FOLLOWED BY THE NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. ECMWF WAS ESPECIALLY DOING WELL WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITION OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION REMAINED OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVED FURTHER EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER/NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN GOVERNED BY MESOSCALE INFLUENCES. MOST MODEL OUTPUT...EVEN THE HRRR AND RUC...HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FOR AS A LONG AS POSSIBLE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION/DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE AROUND...MAY AFFECT THE EXTENT OF THE FOG AS WELL. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR UPSTREAM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS WELL WEST. WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR WEST. GRADIENT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS BREEZY TO WINDY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. NWP IS THE COOLEST GUIDANCE OF THE BUNCH WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALL DEPENDS HOW FAST DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION LASTS PLUS WHEN WHATEVER STRATUS DEVELOPS ALSO BURNS OFF. DID TONE DOWN MAXES IN THE WEST A FEW DEGREES BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND MADE THE EAST THE WARMEST. SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT ON MAX TEMPERATURES AND THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE HANDLING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. HOWEVER DUE TO UPSTREAM RIDGING AND NCEP DISCUSSIONS...DO BELIEVE THAT SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MAYBE EVEN SLOWER. THERE LOOKS TO BE STRONGER MID/UPPER RIDGING BUT THE LEE TROUGH MAYBE FURTHER WEST WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE WINDS. BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS THIS THE BEST AT THIS TIME. ABOVE REASONING...850 TO 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND BLENDING OF VARIOUS NWP/2M GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. REFER BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION. WE LOOK TO STAY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST +15C. ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HOT...AN ISOLATED UPDRAFT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE EARLIER GUIDANCE PER EXPLANATION GIVEN ABOVE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z AND THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE LOOKS NOW TO HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH... IT STILL LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CINH. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. RATHER IMPRESSIVE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OCCUR AND A BRIEFLY TIGHT GRADIENT AS WELL. IF THIS WERE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WOULD SAY THAT THERE WOULD BE A DECENT CHANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A RAPID/BRIEF BURST OF WINDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE WINDS BY 18Z. EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCE IN MODEL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE EARLIER GUIDANCE WITH A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT WITH TONIGHTS LATER GUIDANCE. NAM IS BY FAR THE COOLEST. FRONT LOOKS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z. BASED ON THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND THE COLD AIR I SEE BEHIND IT UPSTREAM...DID TREND THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. EARLY MODEL RUNS FROM THE EVENING HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE NAM BY FAR WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE 06Z NAM MAINTAINED THIS. HOWEVER... OTHER MODELS NOW HAVE LESS PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE IT FURTHER SOUTH. SREF AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS AND MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AREA LOOKS FAR REMOVED FROM THE MAIN LIFT AND INSTABILITY. SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ABOVE REASONING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT AND WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CWA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS...MAY SEE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHERN TRACK WOULD PLACE THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS CONTINUED HEATING TAKES PLACE...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WHATEVER THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP THEY LOOK TO STAY TO THE WEST OF BOTH TAF SITES. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 PER REASONING ABOVE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE TROUGH COULD BE FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD MAKE LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. IF ECMWF WORKS OUT THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WOULD BE WEAK ALONG WITH THE WINDS AS WELL. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE RATHER LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED TO OUR WEST WHICH MAY CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AT THIS TIME CHOSE TO NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IF HAD TO WOULD SAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONDITIONS TO BE MET WOULD OVER THE COLORADO PORTION OF OUR AREA. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN HWO AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BULLER SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM....BULLER/PM AVIATION...BULLER FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
619 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 THE 08.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A STRONG 130 KT JET PUSHING ASHORE ACROSS KMFR (MEDFORD, OR) WITH A WEAKER JET STREAK YET CYCLONICALLY CURVED FROM KOTX (SPOKANE, WA) NORTHWARD TO CWEG (EDMONTON, AB). DOWNSTREAM, AN 80 KT JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS CWPL (PICKLE LAKE, ON) AND TURNING INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW FROM KOHX (NASHVILLE, TN) TO KRNK (BLACKSBURG, VA) TO KMHX (NEWPORT, NC). AT 500 HPA, COLD AIR OF -26 DEG C TO -23 DEG C EXTENDED FROM KSLE (SALEM, OR) TO CYZT (PORT HARDY, BC). FAIRLY SEASONAL 500 HPA TEMPERATURES OF -11 TO -10 DEG C EXTENDED FROM KABR (ABERDEEN, SD) TO KDDC (DODGE CITY, KS). ANOTHER COLD POOL W/ H5 TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND -21 DEG C TO -19 DEG C WAS OBSERVED ACROSS QUEBEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH. AT 700 & 850 HPA, MOST NOTICEABLE WERE THE TWO COLD POOLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE CANADA. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S DEG F SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DEG F WERE TAKING THE LONG WAY BEHIND A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER VIA THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS SW KANSAS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 THIS MORNING: ALL IS NOT QUIET ON THE WESTERN KANSAS FRONT. HAVE TWO FORECAST CONCERNS THAT HAVE STARTED TO APPEAR/TREND ON A WSR-88D MOSAIC MAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE COLORADO & THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THOSE TWO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FOG AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE TAKING THE "LONG WAY" (AKA ADVECTION) ACROSS THE HIGH TEXAS PLAINS WHEREAS DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ARE LOWER (MID TO UPPER 50S DEG F VERSUS AROUND 60 DEG F TOWARDS KDHT). NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND BUFKIT FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P`S SUGGEST THAT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE BORDER. SREF VISIBILITY PROGS ALSO SUGGEST HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG IN RECENT RUNS SO THIS MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN TERMS OF AERIAL COVERAGE. THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE. SECOND CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ROUGHLY WEST OF DODGE CITY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL RUNS FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST DECENT COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY/QPF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CAUSED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800 TO 700 HPA LAYER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS AS A RESULT. BOTH CORES OF THE WRF ARE ALSO SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TODAY: OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE ON THE BANAL SIDE. THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TYPICALLY DOES DURING THE DAY. MIXING ROUGHLY TO 750 HPA AND RESULTANT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWNWARD WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 80S DEG F). AFTER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS CLEARS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY. TONIGHT: SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...HAVE MID 60S DEG F IN THE GRIDS. A LACK OF SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS/500 HPA RIDGING/WEAK JET DYNAMICS DURING THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN 0 PERCENT POPS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 THE START OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE WARM AND WINDY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND +14 TO +16C 700MB TEMPERATURES SPREADS EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE FURTHER EAST 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 20S. 25C 850 MB TEMPERATURE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS STILL YIELDED HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES SO THE BASED ON THE NEW 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE DAY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW FORECAST BY THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS STILL FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS/NEAR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS BUT MID LEVELS WILL BE COOLING BY 00Z MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS COOLING, LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND MOISTURE/FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY LATE SUNDAY AND THEN EXPAND CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY EVENING RANGES FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 30 TO 40 KNOTS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IT DOES APPEAR THEY WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BY LATE DAY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT NOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED A FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET HOWEVER SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FURTHER GFS SUGGESTED. AS A RESULT WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER CONSALL MOS AND 850MB 00Z MONDAY ECMWF TEMPERATURES AS A GUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. HIGHS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ONLY TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION, 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE. ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE 850MB MOISTURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT I310 AND I315 LEVELS HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS LATE DAY. SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE WESTERLY FLOW MID TO LATE WEEK. EACH OF THESE WAVES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THEY PASS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING, TRACK OR STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE FEATURES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE LATER PERIODS. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK STILL LOOK TO BE MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S EACH DAY. CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THE 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS 25 TO 35 KT WINDS LOCATED NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. VFR CIGS IN THE 7000 TO 10000 FT LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z AS AN AREA OF WEAKENING ELEVATED CONVECTION, ASSOCIATED WITH 800-700 WAA AND FRONTOGENESIS, CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 87 65 93 67 / 10 0 10 10 GCK 88 65 97 67 / 10 0 0 0 EHA 87 65 99 64 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 87 65 97 66 / 30 0 10 0 HYS 88 66 94 69 / 10 0 10 10 P28 89 66 90 69 / 10 0 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN SHORT TERM...SUGDEN LONG TERM...BURGERT AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1003 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .UPDATE... AT 15Z...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...AND A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE FA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THAT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S AND AND LOW 70S...AND THERE WERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED WAA EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND WERE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. THERE WERE SOME MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA...TOO. CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF THE FA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT STILL LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WESTERN THREE FOURTHS OF THE FA. RECENT MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON PCPN FOR THE FA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM. HOWEVER...DID NOT WANT TO BACK OFF ON AFTERNOON POPS TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE CLEARING BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY HELP DESTABILIZE MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY DUE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE CLOUD COVER TREND AND ITS POTENTIAL TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ UPDATE...LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI ATTM. THIS PCPN IS DIMINISHING AS THE SUN COMES UP. NOTHING DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS LINE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE... LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION DRY AND UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND ADVECT IN A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND MOVE EWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE NE LATE THIS EVENING AND SKIES SCATTER OUT BY EARLY SAT MORNING. LLWS WILL DEVELOP FROM BRD TO DLH TO HYR TONIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ INITIATES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ SHORT TERM...07Z SFC PRESSURE PLOT PLACED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW WAS ORGANIZING IN SE MANITOBA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT WITH RECENT DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF WAA. STORMS ARE ALSO GETTING SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING EVEN AFTER FROPA AS WAA WILL CONTINUE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF FLATTENS OUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY OVER THE FA WITH GOOD SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H85 COMPUTED LI`S TO -4C AND MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND ITS AFFECT ON DIURNAL HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE ZONES/GRIDS. SEE THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FOR DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AFTER 06Z. MEANWHILE...SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS AND IN THE VCNTY OF LLJ CROSS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD WHERE AN ADDITIONAL SFC BOUNDARY WILL STALL AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN FAR SW ONTARIO. PCPN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z AS LLJ MOVES OFF TO THE E. WAA CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING/SPREADING INTO THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STUCK JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN FOR SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RATHER HOT WITH 80S EXPECTED...A BIT COOLER ALONG THE N SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR CKC/GNA. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A POTENT UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A SFC COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN ND. A STRONG 850MB LLJ...ROUGHLY 50 KTS...WILL ADVECT IN A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD...THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXES. MAINLY ALONG A PATH JUST SOUTH OR PARALLEL TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NRN MN. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED AS A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH N-CENTRAL MN...AND MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG...0-6 KM AGL BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID/STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW LIGHT COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES MONDAY. SO...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN CHC/SLGT CHC POPS DURING THE DAY AND INTO MON NIGHT. A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCES DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY WARM...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 80S...AND EVEN A FEW LOW 90S. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. TEMPS ON TUES AND WED ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS FORECAST GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 77 59 82 60 / 60 20 10 10 INL 80 56 87 63 / 60 10 10 30 BRD 85 64 89 69 / 20 10 10 10 HYR 84 62 85 63 / 50 10 10 10 ASX 80 61 85 61 / 60 20 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM....MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .UPDATE... 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION INSERTED BELOW. && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ THINGS HAVE NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS AND CONCERNS IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... IN THE SHORTER TERM WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CONVECTION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTS OVER THE THE REGION WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE STILL IN PLACE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST FLATTENS AND IS KICKED EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WE SHOULD SEE THE MAIN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE GET DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT... WITH WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO WORK IN AT LOW LEVELS. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY PCPN TO END TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A DRY SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONE ANOTHER TO SOME EXTENT... WITH SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES STILL EVIDENT BEYOND MONDAY... ALTHOUGH LESS THAN WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND MAINLY JUST BLEND WITH THE LATEST MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS THAT BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE ON A SOMEWHAT SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION... BOTH WOULD IMPLY BETTER AND MORE FOCUSED LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA AS A STRONG UPPER JET WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FOR TODAY... CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWFA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E PROGS SHOW CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR ESSENTIALLY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... ALTHOUGH UNTIL SUNDAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IS THE ONLY TIME FRAME WHEN IT LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH SOME LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SATURATION NEAR THE LFC. THE WARM SECTOR REALLY SURGES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY... AND TEMPERATURES AOA 90 DEGREES STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH SOME MID 90S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF MIXING. WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WE SHOULDN/T HAVE ANY PCPN TO WORRY ABOUT... AND ANY DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST BASED UPON EXPECTED MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY... SO SOME FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM TEMPERATURES... WITH MAY HELP KEEP IT FROM FEELING TOO UNCOMFORTABLE. ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING... ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARD THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL INTENSITY A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE JUICY... WITH PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AOA 1500 J/KG AND QUITE POSSIBLY ABV 2500 J/KG. THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STARTING TO ARRIVE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA... AND IT APPEARS WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION... PERHAPS INITIALLY AS SUPERCELLS BUT WITH A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE SEEMING LIKELY GIVEN A GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CAP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED TO OUR NORTH... WHERE WINDS WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BEING BACKED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER... THERE WOULD STILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR A TORNADO FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA INITIALLY PRIOR TO ANY TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION. BUT... THE PRIMARY THREATS STILL LOOK TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ALLOWED FOR DRY WEATHER FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHRA DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD POOL LINGER IN THE AREA. THE GFS HAS QUICKENED ITS DEPARTURE IN COMPARISON TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED ITS DEPARTURE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THINGS WOULD MAINLY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ONLY A PORTION OF THE AREA... OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER... DID BRING BACK A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WE LOOK TO GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND SEE SOME RETURN FLOW SETUP ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. && .AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ BAND OF SHRA/TSRA JUST EAST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BASICALLY BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER ERN NODAK IS ON ITS WAY TOWARD LAKE OF THE WOODS. BECAUSE OF THIS...DO NOT FEEL CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIP THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD ARE VERY GOOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH WEAK LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORECAST BY THE RAP TO MOVE ACROSS MN THIS MORNING. THE RAP...ALONG WITH THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH GENERATING SOME SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH RADAR RETURNS NOW VIRTUALLY GONE ACROSS ERN SODAK...FEEL MODELS ARE OVERDOING IT A BIT...SO ADVERTISING DRY TAFS EVERYWHERE. FOR WINDS...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR FOR DIRECTIONS...WHICH IS 10-30 DEGREES MORE VEERED THAN LAMP GUIDANCE...BUT WITH VERY SIMILAR SPEEDS...WITH GUSTS SNEAKING INTO THE 20S STILL LOOKING LIKELY. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL HAVE BACKED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH...WITH CLOUD COVER OF ANY TYPE BASICALLY GONE. KMSP...IF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WERE TO IMPACT THE FIELD...WOULD BE IN THE 15-20Z TIME FRAME...BUT WITH LACK OF RADAR RETURNS AND VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS BELOW 12K FT OUT WEST...KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT. WOULD PUT CHANCE OF SHRA AT 20 PERCENT AT BEST 15-20Z. OTHER THAN THAT...MAIN ISSUE WILL DEAL WITH WINDS. HRRR IS VEERING WINDS ALL THE WAY OVER TO 260 BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE PRIMARILY A CROSS WIND TODAY AND WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON BEING ABLE TO KEEP THE ACTIVE RUNWAYS ON THE 30S. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS COMING FOR SATURDAY. .OUTLOOK... .SAT...VFR. WINDS SSW 10-15KTS GUSTS 20-25 KTS. .SUN...TSRA LIKELY IN THE EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS SW 15-20 KTS GUSTS 25-30 KTS. .MON...VFR. WINDS WSW 10-15 KTS && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ JVM/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
922 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT... RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST YESTERDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES LAST NIGHT WAS A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE GOES VISUAL REVEALS THE FOG TO BE RAPIDLY BURNING OFF THIS MID MORNING. OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES ARE IN STORE WHICH WILL DEVELOP A WARMER THAN NORMAL DAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH JUST MOVING INTO THE PAC-NW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE DIVIDE TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR WESTERN AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND THE LATEST RAP. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SO ADDED POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...LIKELY FOR THE EVENING. FEW OTHER CHANGES. SCT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER FLOW HAS VEERED TO SW PAST 24 HOURS ALLOWING CONVECTION FROM E WY/CO TO BE DIRECTED AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO NE MT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. THIS MORNING THOUGH...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS...AND DELAYED CLEARING IN OUR E LAST NIGHT WHERE THERE WAS RAINFALL...THIS ALL COMBINING TO CAUSE AREAS OF FOG. MOS DIDN`T SHOW ANY...BUT RAP MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING WIDESPREAD 95 PCT SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS OUR E HALF OF THE CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS ON THE SATELLITE FOG LOOP AS WELL AS THE OBS AT GDV...OLF...AND SCOBEY. STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY E AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND LAST 2 RUNS OF THE GFS AND CMC GEM HAVE BEEN ALSO FARTHER S...SO LOOKING A LITTLE BIT WETTER FOR OUR AREA. APPEARS THIS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AS CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING LIFTED INDEXES TO AS LOW AS -10...CAPES TO 4000 J/KG...PRECIP WATER TO 1.3 INCHES. THE GREATEST VALUES IN OUR SE. ALL AREAS WITH 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR OF UP TO 50 KT. THE BETTER DYNAMICS THOUGH IN W AND N. THERE IS A LEADING COLD FRONT THAT HAS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOP ON IT OVER N WY AND MOVE NE ACROSS OUR SE TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS JUST SO-SO THOUGH...AND MOST FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT REGION OF JET IS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT AN INTENSE...BUT RELATIVELY SHORTLIVED AND PROGRESSIVE CONVECTION AT ANY ONE LOCATION AS WE QUICKLY CHANGE AIRMASS...BUT MOST ALL OF THE CWA AFFECTED AS SHOWN BY SWODY1...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THERE IS ALSO A NARROW AREA IN STRONG COOL ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORN OF UP TO 30 KT AT 850 MB...SO MAY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND THIS MAY BE QUITE A BIT ENHANCED BY CONVECTION TOO MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY SLOT FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY... BUT THEN INCREASING SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN. DETAILS VARY QUITE A BIT SO WENT MAINLY BROADRUSH SCATTERED FOR THOSE PERIODS. MODELS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE DURING THIS TIME ALSO...SO PROBABLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT TOO. SUNDAY QUITE COOL WITH THICKNESS VALUES INTO THE UPPER 540S AND LOWER 550S DM...NAM EVEN LOWER...AND WITH PRECIP AND CLOUDCOVER...HIGHS HELD TO THE LOWER 60S. W WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT AT 850 MB WILL LIKELY MEAN A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY TOO. SIMONSEN .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES EITHER EAST (GFS) OR NORTHEAST (ECMWF) OUT OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO PART OF MONDAY. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HAS MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. FORRESTER && .AVIATION... PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BREAK THROUGH THE MORNING LIFR FOG AND DISSIPATE IT AROUND 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z AND SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IF A STRONGER STORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BMICKELSON && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
428 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT... UPPER FLOW HAS VEERED TO SW PAST 24 HOURS ALLOWING CONVECTION FROM E WY/CO TO BE DIRECTED AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO NE MT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. THIS MORNING THOUGH...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS...AND DELAYED CLEARING IN OUR E LAST NIGHT WHERE THERE WAS RAINFALL...THIS ALL COMBINING TO CAUSE AREAS OF FOG. MOS DIDN`T SHOW ANY...BUT RAP MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING WIDESPREAD 95 PCT SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS OUR E HALF OF THE CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS ON THE SATELLITE FOG LOOP AS WELL AS THE OBS AT GDV...OLF...AND SCOBEY. STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY E AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND LAST 2 RUNS OF THE GFS AND CMC GEM HAVE BEEN ALSO FARTHER S...SO LOOKING A LITTLE BIT WETTER FOR OUR AREA. APPEARS THIS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AS CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING LIFTED INDEXES TO AS LOW AS -10...CAPES TO 4000 J/KG...PRECIP WATER TO 1.3 INCHES. THE GREATEST VALUES IN OUR SE. ALL AREAS WITH 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR OF UP TO 50 KT. THE BETTER DYNAMICS THOUGH IN W AND N. THERE IS A LEADING COLD FRONT THAT HAS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOP ON IT OVER N WY AND MOVE NE ACROSS OUR SE TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS JUST SO-SO THOUGH...AND MOST FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT REGION OF JET IS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT AN INTENSE...BUT RELATIVELY SHORTLIVED AND PROGRESSIVE CONVECTION AT ANY ONE LOCATION AS WE QUICKLY CHANGE AIRMASS...BUT MOST ALL OF THE CWA AFFECTED AS SHOWN BY SWODY1...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THERE IS ALSO A NARROW AREA IN STRONG COOL ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORN OF UP TO 30 KT AT 850 MB...SO MAY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND THIS MAY BE QUITE A BIT ENHANCED BY CONVECTION TOO MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY SLOT FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THEN INCREASING SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN. DETAILS VARY QUITE A BIT SO WENT MAINLY BROADRUSH SCATTERED FOR THOSE PERIODS. MODELS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE DURING THIS TIME ALSO...SO PROBABLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT TOO. SUNDAY QUITE COOL WITH THICKNESS VALUES INTO THE UPPER 540S AND LOWER 550S DM...NAM EVEN LOWER...AND WITH PRECIP AND CLOUDCOVER...HIGHS HELD TO THE LOWER 60S. W WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT AT 850 MB WILL LIKELY MEAN A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY TOO. SIMONSEN .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES EITHER EAST (GFS) OR NORTHEAST (ECMWF) OUT OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO PART OF MONDAY. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HAS MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. FORRESTER && .AVIATION... PATCHY FOG UNTIL 15Z MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z AND SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT FROM EITHER LOW CLOUDS AND/OR RAIN. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
943 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FAIR AND WARM WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE GENERAL TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A BIT DRIER CONDITIONS. A CONSENSUS QPF AMONG THE NAM/RGEM/GFS ALL REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE DRY AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE... EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF ROCHESTER...HAVE SOLID CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NORTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE WILL HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REACH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ML CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES. WHILE THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...WIND PROFILES SHOW SOME WIND SHEAR FROM 925 MB TO 700 MB...SUPPORTING SOME ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. WILL ADD A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN ZONES/GRIDS/HWO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION...A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTION WILL APPROACH EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT...ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER METRO AREAS...RANGING TO THE MID-50S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...AND TRACKS ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A DECENT 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY...AND AT LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE LOOKING A DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CONCENTRATING THE BEST OVERALL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TIMING-WISE...A CONSENSUS OF THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL COME BETWEEN MID SATURDAY MORNING AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FASTER AND MORE INCONSISTENT 00Z GFS DISCARDED AS A FAST OUTLIER. WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT... WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS INDICATED OTHERWISE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN PLAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 80 IN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO GRADUALLY FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF A WARMER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE A RETURN TO QUIETER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BOTH AFTERNOONS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THEREFORE A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH...AS WELL AS A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C AND +16C ON SUNDAY AND THE +16C TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY...EXPECT SURFACE READINGS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WHEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN OUR NORMALLY WARMEST LOCATIONS. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE FOR FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SULTRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC-BASED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VACILLATE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE JUST KEPT BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS IN PLAY FOR BOTH DAYS FOR NOW. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY... THOUGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL /MID-UPPER 70S/ WITH 850 MB READINGS ONLY FALLING BACK TO THE +10C TO +14C RANGE. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT MORE STABLE IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT LIMITING INSTABILITY. FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUF/ROC/IAG/JHW)...EXPECT TODAY TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE. ART WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE AFTERNOON PRESENTING A PERIOD OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS ON MID-AFTERNOON TIMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ART BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...ARES OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED TSTMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE...AND WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS/WAVES WILL FALL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE ON EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE BREEZE COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...LEVAN/APFFEL SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
744 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FAIR AND WARM WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE GENERAL TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A BIT DRIER CONDITIONS. A CONSENSUS QPF AMONG THE NAM/RGEM/GFS ALL REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BACKED OFF ON SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE DRY AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF ROCHESTER...HAVE SOLID CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NORTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE WILL HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY. INITIALLY...AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING. RAP PROFILES ON BUFKIT SHOW THIS IS BEING CAUSED BY LIFT ALOFT. THE SHORTWAVE TRAILS THIS...WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ML CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES. WHILE THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...WIND PROFILES SHOW SOME WIND SHEAR FROM 925 MB TO 700 MB...SUPPORTING SOME ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. WILL ADD A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN ZONES/GRIDS/HWO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION...A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTION WILL APPROACH EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT...ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER METRO AREAS...RANGING TO THE MID-50S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...AND TRACKS ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A DECENT 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY...AND AT LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE LOOKING A DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CONCENTRATING THE BEST OVERALL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TIMING-WISE...A CONSENSUS OF THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL COME BETWEEN MID SATURDAY MORNING AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FASTER AND MORE INCONSISTENT 00Z GFS DISCARDED AS A FAST OUTLIER. WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT... WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS INDICATED OTHERWISE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN PLAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 80 IN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO GRADUALLY FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF A WARMER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE A RETURN TO QUIETER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BOTH AFTERNOONS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THEREFORE A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH...AS WELL AS A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C AND +16C ON SUNDAY AND THE +16C TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY...EXPECT SURFACE READINGS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WHEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN OUR NORMALLY WARMEST LOCATIONS. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE FOR FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SULTRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC-BASED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VACILLATE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE JUST KEPT BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS IN PLAY FOR BOTH DAYS FOR NOW. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY... THOUGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL /MID-UPPER 70S/ WITH 850 MB READINGS ONLY FALLING BACK TO THE +10C TO +14C RANGE. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT MORE STABLE IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT LIMITING INSTABILITY. FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUF/ROC/IAG/JHW)...EXPECT TODAY TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE. ART WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE AFTERNOON PRESENTING A PERIOD OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS ON MID-AFTERNOON TIMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ART BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...ARES OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED TSTMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE...AND WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS/WAVES WILL FALL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE ON EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE BREEZE COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...APFFEL SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
318 AM PDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY MILDER WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE VANCOUVER ISLAND COAST. RADAR AND INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICT NUMEROUS SHOWERS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION AS COLD UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO HOLD TOGETHER ONCE IN THE LEE OF THE COAST RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...BUT GIVEN TRENDS...I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE NOTICEABLE BREAKS IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TODAY. WITH THAT SAID...THE NAM...RUC AND HRRR SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MID MORNING ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DEEPER CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS BRING THIS AREA OF INCREASED SHOWERS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS. AFTER WHICH...WE MAY EXPERIENCE A SEVERAL HOUR LULL IN PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MODELS THEN GENERALLY BRING THE MAIN VORT MAX AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE...I DO EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE COMMON. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR 4KFT TODAY...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL LIKELY ONLY OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION OVER THE CASCADES COINCIDES WITH A LACK OF SOLAR ENERGY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER PASSES. AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE ISSUE WILL REMAIN OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. HOWEVER...UNDER A SIMILAR PATTERN RECENTLY...WE HELD ONTO SHOWERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER...AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL WARM FURTHER MONDAY...WITH MID 70S APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. /NEUMAN .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... GENERAL TRENDS IN EXTENDED MODELS IS FOR A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TO LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW CONFINED TO THE GULF. WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS...THE WEAK SHORTWAVES DEPICTED PUSHING IN ARE LIKELY TO PROVE ONLY A SMALL THREAT FOR PRODUCING RAIN...AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. LATER IN THE WEEK...BEGINNING AROUND WED...THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW BEGINS TO DIG SE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS. && .AVIATION...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SHOWERS. AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT DROPS OVER THE AREA ON FRI...LOOK FOR SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND THIS AFTERNOON INLAND. THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN ALL TAFS THROUGH THIS EVENING. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOOK FOR THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME SMALL HAIL AFTER ABOUT 20Z UNTIL SUNSET. TODD/27 && .MARINE...BUOY 89 HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING IN THE 22-25 KT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT 10AM THIS MORNING FOR WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HOWEVER...STILL CONCERNED THAT CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO 25 KT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT COULD OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE ALERT TO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SMALL HAIL AND ABRUPT WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DROPS DOWN FROM THE NW AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE STILL KEEPING WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT SPEEDS...BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MODELS TRACK THE LOW. HAVE MAINTAINED GUSTS NEAR 20 KT INTO LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THEN START DIMINISHING. TODD/27 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1040 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .UPDATE... MOIST ELY SURFACE FLOW IS ONCE AGAIN PROVING MORE ROBUST THAN 00Z AND 06Z MODELS HAD ANTICIPATED. MOISTURE DEPTH HAS RECENTLY INCREASED AS SHOWN BY STRATUS LOWERING A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT LUBBOCK AND LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. RECENT RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR LEGITIMATE IN KEEPING THIS STRATUS LAYER LARGELY INTACT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUFFICIENTLY THINNING WITH DIABATIC HEATING. LACK OF A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACT TO KEEP THIS MOIST FETCH IN PLACE LONGER...SO ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH 20Z...HIGH TEMPS WERE TRENDED 3-6 DEG COOLER MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE UPSLOPE LIFT WILL PERSIST. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ AVIATION... LOW STRATUS AND VISBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING AT KLBB AND THEN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT KCDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AFTER THE CONDITIONS IMPROVE...WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO BETWEEN 10 AND 12 KNOTS. LOW STRATUS AND VISBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ SHORT TERM... TODAY WILL BE A QUASI REPEAT OF YESTERDAYS EVENTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL FLATTEN WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL LOWER TODAY THE THICKNESS VALUES WILL RISE. LOW STRATUS FILTERED INTO THE AREA HOURS AGO AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL MORNING. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP EARLIER THAN OBSERVED YESTERDAY THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON THURSDAY. MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THEREFORE...ANOTHER REPEAT OF LOW STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. JDV LONG TERM... SHALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN SATURDAY SHOULD MIX AND ERODE OUT TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT RETURNS TO THE AREA. FLATTENED RIDGE WILL SHIFT JUST TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW SKIRTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SATURDAY WILL TURN HOTTER AS A RESULT WHILE WINDS WILL BECOME LOW-END BREEZY. WITH THE STRONG HEATING...AND A SLIGHT SURGE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES WE MAY SEE A HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD THOUGH SEEMS UNLIKELY FOR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUNCH THROUGH WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16 DEGREES CENTIGRADE. SUNDAY MORE OF THE SAME THOUGH BEGINNING WARM AND DRY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT BREEZES AND SHOULD BE OUR HOTTEST DAY COMING UP. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE HEADING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAGGING SOUTHWARD. SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE UPPER LOW DIVERGE FROM THIS POINT...BUT STILL DIP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...LEADING TO FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURES CONTRAST NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. BUT STILL TOO DRY FOR HOPE OF THUNDER ALONG BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL WINDS THEN SHOULD STEER MORE EASTERLY WITH MOISTURE SPREADING BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDER CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY IF NOT A BIT EARLIER BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR POPS PRIOR TO THIS. SOUTHEAST COMPONENT WEDNESDAY APPEARS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL. THURSDAY AND EVEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES AGAIN AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN...WE WILL RETAIN DRY FORECAST STILL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ALL-IN-ALL...VERY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 83 61 99 60 96 / 10 10 0 0 0 TULIA 81 62 96 64 96 / 10 10 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 78 63 96 66 97 / 10 10 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 80 64 98 67 100 / 10 10 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 79 65 98 68 102 / 10 10 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 88 65 100 66 100 / 10 10 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 83 65 98 68 100 / 10 10 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 84 65 95 68 100 / 10 10 10 10 0 SPUR 82 64 95 68 101 / 10 10 10 10 0 ASPERMONT 85 65 96 70 101 / 10 10 10 10 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 93/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
629 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TODAY...THEN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MINNESOTA. REGARDING THE DEEP TROUGH...500MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 2 BELOW NORMAL. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PROFILER AND RADAR DATA SHOWED AN 850MB JET OF 30-40 KT FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND WARMTH. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C IN THIS JET AREA...COMPARED TO 14C AT DLH AND LA CROSSE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS IS QUITE INTERESTING...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE...I.E. VALUES GREATER THAN 1 INCH...SITTING MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. VALUES DROP TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...MISSOURI AND IOWA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MINNESOTA WHERE VALUES ARE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAXIMA OF MOISTURE IS FUELING CONVECTION THAT HAS FIRED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL DPVA FORCED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE ARE ALSO ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT SOME...IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME FORM OF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST BECAUSE OF THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE IS CRITICAL TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SINCE IT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE...GRADUALLY SPREADING CAPPING NORTHWARD AND BRING IN THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SEEN TO OUR SOUTH. FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION NORTH OF I-94 WHERE 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE A TREND THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE CONVECTION TO LIFT NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 WHERE DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH CONTINUED 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. IN FACT...THE OVERALL FORCING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FAIRLY WEAK...AND AS SUCH KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20-40 RANGE. SHOULD WE GET SOME STORMS IN OUR AREA...MAINLY JUST TAYLOR COUNTY WOULD HAVE A SHOT TO SEE SEVERE CONVECTION...IN THE 21-03Z WINDOW WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE QUIET WITH THE MAX MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 15-16C BY 18Z...DRY GROUND AND A BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 80S...WITH MOST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW READINGS AROUND 90 ARE POSSIBLE TOO. THE COMBINATION OF A WARMER DAY TODAY AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE 60S. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A WARM SECTOR FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WELL AGREED UPON TO AT MOST IN EASTWARD PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS MEANS ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A SLIM SHOT OF SOMETHING COMING INTO SOUTHEAST MN VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...IF THE FRONT CAN CONVECT AND CONVECTION CAN SPREAD EAST FAST ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...WITH THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE AREA (LOWEST ON SATURDAY)...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 850MB TEMPS OF 17-19C ON BOTH DAYS...THE DRY AIRMASS AND DRY GROUND...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALL FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MIXING. SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. ALTHOUGH 850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WOULD NORMALLY NOT SUPPORT RECORD LEVELS...ONLY BEING 1-1.5 ABOVE NORMAL...LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 93-96 RANGE. THEREFORE...WE MAY GET CLOSE TO RECORDS. ANTICIPATING LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE 60S...AIDED BY THE DRY AIRMASS. DID STAY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS/GROUND. SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST. WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN MORE TO EITHER RIGHT ON THE FRONT OR POST-FRONTAL. THERE ARE DECENT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS THAT COME INTO THE AREA...ABOUT 50-70 METERS IN 12 HOURS AT 500MB. THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGING UP TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT PLUS THE INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE AND OELWEIN. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS MEAGER...DUE TO THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR POST-FRONTAL. IN FACT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE 0-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 20-25KT. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5-4 KM AND MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE NOT FAVORABLE EITHER FOR SEVERE. MAYBE AT MOST WE END UP WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 60S ON TAP...PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE 08.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIAL UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AT 12Z MONDAY SHOULD HEAD UP INTO ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AGAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINTAINED 60 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS. IN FACT...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE LOCATIONS LIKE ROCHESTER COULD END UP DRY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE...THEN COMES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DID MAINTAIN SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS UP...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ABLE TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD END UP AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY...DUE TO 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C TO 6-10C. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20 PERCENT CHANCES...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. UPPER RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD UP INTO OUR AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO AT LEAST NORMAL BY THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SHAPING UP AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...LIKE THIS WEEKEND...WELL AGREED UPON BY THE LAST COUPLE ECMWF...GFS AND CFS RUNS. && .AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT 629 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINE FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NEAR BLACK RIVER FALLS WI...NORTH OF THE RST/KLSE TAF SITES. LOOK FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON FOR MORE SHRA/TS CHANCES. EXPECTING ALL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES. ONLY AFFECTS ON THE TAFS SITES WILL BE SCT-BKN MID CLOUD WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8-9KFT THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF 10KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
337 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SATURDAY) ...SMALL PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY... STILL SOME MODERATE FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH SEEM TO BE LACKING ANY DISTINCT SHORTWAVES TODAY TO HELP FIRE OFF CONVECTION. SFC PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL OFF INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. 16Z HRRR MIXES DRY LINE EASTWARD TO ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIM TO LA JUNTA BY 00Z WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE...AND ELEVATED HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE OF OF THE RATON MESA TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE POOLING DEW POINTS EAST OF THE DRY LINE...COULD SEE CAPES 1500-2000+ J/KG...WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. EACH SUCCESSIVE HRRR RUN SEEMS TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NRN SLOPES OF THE RATON...EASTWARD ACROSS BACA...BENT...PROWERS...AND KIOWA COUNTIES AFTER 21Z. WITH SUCH HIGH CAPE VALUES...AND DEEP LAYER SHEARS STILL RUNNING AROUND 30-40 KTS...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EAST OF THE DRY LINE. SPC HAS A 5% PROB FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED GIVEN LACK OF STRONG FORCING ALOFT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 03Z. AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND WINDY DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A CALL AROUND TO FIRE DISTRICTS OUT WEST INDICATES THAT DRYING FUELS SHOULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BY TOMORROW. WITH FLOW ALOFT INCREASING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND INTO WRN MT SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SPREADING DOWN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND FREMONT COUNTY...AND WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ISSUANCE. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE...THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE CRITICAL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MANY AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAD RAIN IN THE RECENT DAYS...BUT SOME MISSED OUT...AND FINER FUELS MAY BE CRITICALLY DRY IN THESE PATCHY AREAS. HOWEVER...FUELS ACROSS FIRE ZONES 232...233 (EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND OTERO COUNTIES)...WHICH ALSO MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE SOLID REPORTS OF SUFFICIENT GREEN UP TO OFFSET ANY CURING FUELS...SO HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THESE REPORTS FOR OTHER AREAS SUCH AS PUEBLO COUNTY...AND PORTIONS OF CROWLEY COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THUS RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. STILL SUFFICIENT GREEN UP FROM SNOW MELT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL...SO THOSE WILL NOT BE INCLUDED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A NICE SUMMER-LIKE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND 60S AND 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. -KT .LONG TERM... (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DRY WITH DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MINIMAL. ONLY HAVE ISOLATED POPS OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE MODELS SUGGEST VERY MODEST CAPE VALUES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN THE EVENING...SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FIRE SOME CONVECTION...AND MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. AIR ALOFT WILL BE DRY AND DECIDED NOT TO ADD ANY POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 18Z NAM IS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. .MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS KEEP THE HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY HAVE ISOLATED POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. AIR ALOFT REMAINS DRY AND DID NOT ADD ANY POPS TO THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. .TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...RETURN FLOW MAY BRING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STARTING WEDNESDAY...TROUGH STARTS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. A LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TOUGH TO FORECAST THESE SUBTLE FEATURES IN DAYS 4 TO 7...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. --PGW-- && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH GUSTY SOUTH WIND IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED TCU POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF KPUB...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KCOS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING INTO KCOS AND KALS DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND BY 18-19Z AT KPUB. GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ221-222- 224-225. && $$ 31/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1125 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY...AFTER CONFERRING WITH DISPATCH ON THE FUELS. ALSO UPDATED TO INCLUDE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...ALONG A NARROW AXIS RUNNING FROM BRANSON TO NEAR LA JUNTA. ALTHOUGH WE APPEAR TO BE LACKING A SHORTWAVE TO HELP FIRE OFF THUNDERSTORMS...SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRY LINE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THIS REGION. HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL. GIVEN CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500-2000+ K/JG WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 50S TO THE EAST OF THIS AXIS...THUNDERSTORMS DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE IF THEY DEVELOP...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...LACK OF STRONG FORCING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP HIGHLY LOCALIZED. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF SE CO UNDER A 5% PROB FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL...AND ITS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS. SHORT RANGE MODELS DO MIX THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...SO THINK THESE AREAS WILL NOT BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. WILL BE A LATE SHOW IF IT HAPPENS...PROBABLY AFTER 3 PM. -KT && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT TAF SITES...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS...PARTICULARLY AT KCOS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 02Z...WITH LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES BY 17-18Z ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON. -KT && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENTLY SEVERE STORM LOCATED OVER EXTREME NE EL PASO COUNTY MOVING SSE. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSE AND SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOTS OF CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE PLAINS WITH LOW CIGS NOTED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DRIER WX MOVING INTO THE REGION. MTNS...VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR WILL SEE DRIER AIR INVADE THE REGION. FAR E PLAINS WILL REMAIN MOIST BUT WITH LITTLE FORCING...DO NOT SEE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE (2000 J/KG). IT WILL BE BREEZY OVER THE HIGHER MTNS AND FAR E PLAINS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED OVER THE PLAINS...MAINLY E OF KLHX. LONG TERM... (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ..HOT AND DRY ON SATURDAY... ..MORE STORMS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK... ACTIVE WX IS EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED...AS A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED JET PATTERN PERSISTS. WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE SATURDAY...AS SWRLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH MOVING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL SEE TEMPS APPROACH 100 F OVR THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. FIRE WX SITUATION IS A BIT TRICKY...WITH WORST METEOROLOGIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVR AREAS WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE OFFSET EARLIER DRY FUEL CONDITIONS. FORESTED SLOPES IN FIRE WX WATCH AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH...BUT RH AND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS BAD FOR THOSE AREAS. IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL MAINTAIN THE WATCH FOR NOW. FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL KNOCK DOWN SUN AFTERNOON TEMPS 10-20 DEG COMPARED TO SAT HIGH TEMPS. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE OVR THE PALMER DVD AND ERN MTS. UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS MODEST...BUT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH UPSLOPE AND LLVL MOISTURE TO KICK OFF A FEW SHWRS/STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE DRYLINE MAKES DIURNAL ADVANCES OVR THE ERN CO PLAINS. WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF AN UPSTREAM PACIFIC LOW THAT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS. IN ANY CASE...TREND SHOULD BR TO DRY AND WARM WX BY FRI AS THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES. 44 AVIATION...LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS KPUB AND KCOS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. VFR WILL OCCUR AT KALS NEXT 24H. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COZ221-222-224-225. && $$ 31/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .AVIATION... ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING. KPBI AND KFLL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN TERMINALS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE TSRAS. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION AND SEEM TO BE PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR DOES DEPICT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH AFFECTING KMIA AND POSSIBLY KTMB. KEPT VCTS AT THESE TERMINALS FOR NOW. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHRAS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSRAS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LINGERING BOUNDARY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AND THEREFORE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAFS AFTER 00Z. 10/CD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY HAVE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS N FL WITH A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FAR WESTERN GOFMEX. AT THE SAME TIME THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC. THESE SYSTEMS ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS S FL AND AIDING IN THE TRANSPORT OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR CONVEVTION TO FIRE UP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE LAKE OKEE REGION. THE HRRR WHICH PERFORMS QUITE WELL IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT FROM GLADES TO CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTIES BY NOON AND THEN BUILDING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE DISCUSSION. SO THE EMPHASIS WILL BE GENERALLY BE INLAND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY ZONE BUT ALL IN ALL WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE COULD GET AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING DOES SHOW SOME DRYING OCCURRED IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH IN TURN WILL ALSO HELP IN THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ALONG WITH THE POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ AVIATION...A VRY MOIST SW WND FLOW ALOFT OVER S FLA ATTM WITH SOME SHRA DVLPG OFF AND ON OVER THE INTERIOR WHICH HAV BEEN MOVG NE AND INTO THE ATLC. ALL TERMINALS VFR THRU 16Z THOUGH VCSH PSBL SE AND AT KAPF WITH VRY BRIEF MVFR CIG. AFT 16Z E COAST TERMINALS VCTS WITH TSRA PSBL THRU 00Z THEN VCSH. GUSTY WNDS PSBL WITH TSRA AND LCLLY HVY RA. SFC WNDS SSW-SW < 10 KTS WITH A PSBL SSE SEA BRZE DVLPG AFT 14Z. AT KAPF...VCSH INITIALLY AND TSRA PSBL BUT WILL AMD AS NEEDED WITH VCTS AFT 14Z. SFC WND CALM ATTM BUT WL BCM SSW-SW ARND 10 KTS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ DISCUSSION... IT REMAINS VERY HUMID THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TOWARDS GLADES COUNTY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN KEYS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MIAMI. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN...AROUND THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN/FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...AND A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF TODAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY TODAY. SO DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE HELPING SPARK CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE PUSHING RIGHT UP AGAINST SOUTH FLORIDA..THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. CLOUDINESS TODAY COULD LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY A LITTLE...AND WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 90 BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THE REGION TODAY...SO BUMPED UP POPS TO 70 TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...AND AROUND 60 PERCENT SOUTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY TROPICAL...WITH MAINLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND PWATS AOB 2 INCHES. SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THE SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SO THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH NORTHWARD...LOWERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION COULD ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIED. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST...WITH MAINLY LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO ROTATE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF. SO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION WILL DICTATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK. THIS FEATURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO AT LOW END CHANCE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. AVIATION... A VRY MOIST SW WND FLOW ALOFT OVER S FLA ATTM WITH SOME SHRA DVLPG OVR THE FLA STRAITS AND SE FLA WITH A LRG AREA OF SHRA MOVG UPON THE W CNTRL FLA COAST AND MOVG TWD LK OKEE. ALL TERMINALS VFR THRU 16Z THOUGH VCSH PSBL SE AND AT KAPF WITH VRY BRIEF MVFR CIG. AFT 16Z E COAST TERMINALS VCTS XCPT PROB30 AT KPBI /KFLL AND KFXE WITH VCTS ELSWHR E COAST. TSRA PSBL THRU 00Z THEN VCSH. GUSTY WNDS PSBL WITH TSRA AND LCLLY HVY RA. SFC WNDS SSW-SW < 10 KTS WITH A PSBL SSE SEA BRZE DVLPG AFT 14Z. AT KAPF...VCSH INITIALLY AND TSRA PSBL BUT WILL AMD AS NEEDED WITH VCTS AFT 14Z. SFC WND CALM ATTM BUT WL BCM SSW-SW ARND 10 KTS. MARINE... THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER ALL THE LOCAL WATERS...AS THEY SWING FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TODAY TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 75 90 / 50 50 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 78 90 / 40 40 20 20 MIAMI 78 90 78 91 / 40 40 20 20 NAPLES 76 90 76 92 / 40 50 30 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1139 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 CLOUD COVER HAS PERSISTED ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING...AS WELL AS PREVENTED WINDS FROM INCREASING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO THIN AND EXPECT THEM TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAPIDLY RECOVER AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE FULL MIXING IS REACHED BY MID AFTERNOON. ALSO TOOK THE OPPORTUNITY TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ENOUGH MIXING HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FROM NARROWING. SO REMOVED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. WHAT PRECIPITATION THERE WAS HAS FINALLY ENDED SO WILL NOT NEED TO EXTEND ANY CHANCES INTO THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING...HOW HOT DOES IT GET/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY...AND WINDS/HOW COOL DOES IT GET/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STILL A TROUGH...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE...AND TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT JET LEVEL WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...WOULD HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO THE GFS SINCE IT IS DOING THE BEST WITH DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ECMWF FOLLOWED BY THE NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. ECMWF WAS ESPECIALLY DOING WELL WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITION OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION REMAINED OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVED FURTHER EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER/NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN GOVERNED BY MESOSCALE INFLUENCES. MOST MODEL OUTPUT...EVEN THE HRRR AND RUC...HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FOR AS A LONG AS POSSIBLE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION/DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE AROUND...MAY AFFECT THE EXTENT OF THE FOG AS WELL. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR UPSTREAM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS WELL WEST. WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR WEST. GRADIENT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS BREEZY TO WINDY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. NWP IS THE COOLEST GUIDANCE OF THE BUNCH WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALL DEPENDS HOW FAST DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION LASTS PLUS WHEN WHATEVER STRATUS DEVELOPS ALSO BURNS OFF. DID TONE DOWN MAXES IN THE WEST A FEW DEGREES BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND MADE THE EAST THE WARMEST. SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT ON MAX TEMPERATURES AND THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE HANDLING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. HOWEVER DUE TO UPSTREAM RIDGING AND NCEP DISCUSSIONS...DO BELIEVE THAT SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MAYBE EVEN SLOWER. THERE LOOKS TO BE STRONGER MID/UPPER RIDGING BUT THE LEE TROUGH MAYBE FURTHER WEST WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE WINDS. BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS THIS THE BEST AT THIS TIME. ABOVE REASONING...850 TO 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND BLENDING OF VARIOUS NWP/2M GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. REFER BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION. WE LOOK TO STAY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST +15C. ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HOT...AN ISOLATED UPDRAFT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE EARLIER GUIDANCE PER EXPLANATION GIVEN ABOVE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z AND THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE LOOKS NOW TO HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH... IT STILL LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CINH. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. RATHER IMPRESSIVE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OCCUR AND A BRIEFLY TIGHT GRADIENT AS WELL. IF THIS WERE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WOULD SAY THAT THERE WOULD BE A DECENT CHANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A RAPID/BRIEF BURST OF WINDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE WINDS BY 18Z. EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCE IN MODEL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE EARLIER GUIDANCE WITH A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT WITH TONIGHTS LATER GUIDANCE. NAM IS BY FAR THE COOLEST. FRONT LOOKS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z. BASED ON THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND THE COLD AIR I SEE BEHIND IT UPSTREAM...DID TREND THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. EARLY MODEL RUNS FROM THE EVENING HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE NAM BY FAR WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE 06Z NAM MAINTAINED THIS. HOWEVER... OTHER MODELS NOW HAVE LESS PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE IT FURTHER SOUTH. SREF AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS AND MAKES SENSE SINCE THE AREA LOOKS FAR REMOVED FROM THE MAIN LIFT AND INSTABILITY. SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ABOVE REASONING. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT AND WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CWA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS...MAY SEE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHERN TRACK WOULD PLACE THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AT KGLD THROUGH ABOUT 19Z AND REACH VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH LOSS OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING. VFR EXPECTED AT KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD...SCATTERED MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT AT EITHER LOCATION. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041. CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COZ252>254. NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NEZ079. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM....BULLER/PM AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1211 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 THIS MORNING: ALL IS NOT QUIET ON THE WESTERN KANSAS FRONT. HAVE TWO FORECAST CONCERNS THAT HAVE STARTED TO APPEAR/TREND ON A WSR-88D MOSAIC MAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE COLORADO & THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THOSE TWO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FOG AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE TAKING THE "LONG WAY" (AKA ADVECTION) ACROSS THE HIGH TEXAS PLAINS WHEREAS DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ARE LOWER (MID TO UPPER 50S DEG F VERSUS AROUND 60 DEG F TOWARDS KDHT). NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND BUFKIT FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P`S SUGGEST THAT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE BORDER. SREF VISIBILITY PROGS ALSO SUGGEST HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG IN RECENT RUNS SO THIS MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN TERMS OF AERIAL COVERAGE. THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE. SECOND CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ROUGHLY WEST OF DODGE CITY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL RUNS FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST DECENT COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY/QPF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CAUSED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800 TO 700 HPA LAYER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS AS A RESULT. BOTH CORES OF THE WRF ARE ALSO SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TODAY: OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE ON THE BANAL SIDE. THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TYPICALLY DOES DURING THE DAY. MIXING ROUGHLY TO 750 HPA AND RESULTANT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWNWARD WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 80S DEG F). AFTER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS CLEARS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY. TONIGHT: SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...HAVE MID 60S DEG F IN THE GRIDS. A LACK OF SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS/500 HPA RIDGING/WEAK JET DYNAMICS DURING THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN 0 PERCENT POPS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 THE START OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE WARM AND WINDY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND +14 TO +16C 700MB TEMPERATURES SPREADS EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE FURTHER EAST 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 20S. 25C 850 MB TEMPERATURE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS STILL YIELDED HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES SO THE BASED ON THE NEW 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE DAY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW FORECAST BY THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS STILL FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS/NEAR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS BUT MID LEVELS WILL BE COOLING BY 00Z MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS COOLING, LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND MOISTURE/FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY LATE SUNDAY AND THEN EXPAND CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY EVENING RANGES FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 30 TO 40 KNOTS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IT DOES APPEAR THEY WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BY LATE DAY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT NOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED A FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET HOWEVER SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FURTHER GFS SUGGESTED. AS A RESULT WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER CONSALL MOS AND 850MB 00Z MONDAY ECMWF TEMPERATURES AS A GUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. HIGHS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ONLY TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION, 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE. ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE 850MB MOISTURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT I310 AND I315 LEVELS HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS LATE DAY. SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE WESTERLY FLOW MID TO LATE WEEK. EACH OF THESE WAVES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THEY PASS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING, TRACK OR STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE FEATURES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE LATER PERIODS. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK STILL LOOK TO BE MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S EACH DAY. CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THE 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS TODAY AS A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME BY SUNSET BUT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AGAIN TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY, DEPENDING ON SURFACE WIND CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 87 65 93 67 / 10 0 10 10 GCK 88 65 97 67 / 10 0 0 0 EHA 87 65 99 64 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 87 65 97 66 / 30 0 10 0 HYS 88 66 94 69 / 10 0 10 10 P28 89 66 90 69 / 10 0 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SUGDEN LONG TERM...BURGERT AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
317 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CREATING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONVECTION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. NEW RUC HAS CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BUT CAPE REMAINS SKINNY. SHEAR NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO STILL EXPECTING THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LOW BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FREEZING LEVEL ONLY AROUND 8K, SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. HRRR AND RUC MODEL INDICATE THIS FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BUT IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW OVER 1 INCH SO POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGES APPEARS TO BE AROUND .25 ACROSS DOWNEAST WITH OVER HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH BUT AGAIN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY DOWNPOURS. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BORDERING NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR MILD NIGHT NIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY. HIGH ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND THEN MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWNEAST ON TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS BUT LOWER IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST BETWEEN 07-12Z SATURDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, FOG WILL KEEP VSBY BELOW 1 NM TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOSTER SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...FOSTER MARINE...FOSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1210 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CREATING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1200L: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEW RUC HAS CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BUT CAPE REMAINS SKINNY. SHEAR NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO STILL EXPECTING THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LOW. PW OVER 1 INCH SO POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. 0930L UPDATE: WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF PISCATAQUIS,,,PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 100% FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. 640 AM UPDATE: A LITTLE PATCH OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY TOWARD PRESQUE ISLE EARLY THIS MORNING...SO RAISED EARLY MORNING POPS TO 40 PERCENT HERE. TWEAKED AREAS OF FOG CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY INLAND...BUT A BIT SLOWER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR TWEAKS TO TODAY`S POPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. 11-3.9 FOG CHANNEL AT 315 AM SHOWING FOG ALONG THE WESTERN DOWNEAST COAST AS WELL AS BETWEEN BANGOR AND HOULTON. EXPECT THE FOG TO FILL IN A BIT MORE BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO FIRE LATE THIS MORNING AND AROUND NOON AND BEGIN OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING EAST INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND COMING OFF THE OCEAN...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF TODAY`S CONVECTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED RATHER THAN ELEVATED IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE COAST. THAT BEING SAID...JUST CANNOT SEE THE STORMS BEING STRONG OR SEVERE. IF ANYTHING IS TO BECOME STRONG...IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH WOODS AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. FOR TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS INTO A STEADIER RAIN...WITH A DECENT SOAKING OF AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MOST PLACES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE AS WELL...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE RAIN GOING LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12...GFS40....SREF AND ECMWF TO INITIALIZED POP GRIDS THEN HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FOR WIND GRIDS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GMOS DURING DAY AND ONLY GMOS AT NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE GMOS AND HAVE INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES. FOR QPF WILL BLEND THE GFS40 AND NAM12. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND BUILD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH GMOS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS MOSTLY FOR SMOOTHING. WILL ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HIGHER BY SEVERAL DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: FOG OVER MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING KBHB AND KBGR. FOG WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO BURN OFF ALONG THE COAST THAN INLAND. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ALONG WITH EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: LARGE AREA OF FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG TO REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM. CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KT AND SEAS TO 4 FT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRANSITION TO GMOS WINDS. WILL LOWER WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT. FOR WAVES WILL USE THE WNA/4 TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 1 FOOT TUESDAY TO BETTER FIT GMOS WINDS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY/FOSTER SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...FOISY/FOSTER MARINE...FOISY/FOSTER/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 WV LOOP/RAOBS/RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OVER MANITOBA WITH PV ANAMOLY BEGINNING TO ENTER FAR WEST LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION THAT TRIGGERED MORNING SHRA/SCT TSRA HAS PUSHED INTO CNTRL CWA AND MERGED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FM MQT-P53-ISQ. CLUSTER OF TSRA OVR DELTA COUNTY MOST ACTIVE LAST HR IS WITHIN AXIS OF SFC BASED CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 40 KTS. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY HAVE PRODUCED SMALL HAIL...BUT OTHERWISE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN THE MAIN HAZARDS. EVEN THOUGH THESE SHRA/TSRA ARE PINNED TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE THEY WILL LIKELY GET SWEPT UP IN THE LARGER SCALE 925-850MB TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REGIME AND EDGE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. FARTHER WEST...THUS FAR THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA FORMING OVR WCNTRL WISCONSIN ON EDGE OF DPVA JUST AHEAD OF PV ANAOMLY. SUSPECT THIS IS DUE TO MID-LEVEL WARMING ON 12Z GRB SOUNDING. RUC AND NAM INDICATED ONLY FURTHER WARMING WOULD OCCUR THIS AFTN AND THAT SHOWS UP WITH RAP SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY MOIST ADIABATIC OVR WCNTRL WI. WILL NEED TO KEEP FOCUS JUST SW OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING MAIN FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT OVER FAR NCNTRL CWA INTO THE EASTERN CWA CLOSER TO 925-850MB WARM FRONT. TWEAKED POPS TO INDICATE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE CURRENT CONVECTION IS ONGOING. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO MOVE THE HIGHER POPS OUT OF THE KEWEENAW AND MOST OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. YET STILL CANNOT COUNT OUT SOME SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING SINCE THE SHORTWAVE IS RIDING THROUGH AND INTERACTING WITH MOIST AIRMASS. EXPECT SHORTWAVE TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA OVR CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS FORCING SLACKENS AND LOW-LEVEL SFC TROUGH AND H85 WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF CWA. WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS PRESENT IN THE EVENING CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR WILL HAVE RISK OF SOME FOG. WEBCAMS SHOWED FOG DRIFTING INTO VCNTY OF MQT THIS AFTN...BUT BETTER CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ON THE KEWEENAW MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SE GRADIENT WIND. HIGHER DWPNTS AND SOME WIND IN THE WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD RESTRICT TEMPS FM FALLING MUCH BLO 60F IN MOST AREAS. WARM FRONT NORTH OF CWA ON SATURDAY...BUT GRADIENT IS NOT THAT STRONG. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MAINTAIN IDEA OF LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVR MAINLY CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA BY MIDDAY. MLCAPES COULD END UP FAIRLY HIGH AS MIXING IN THE MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD ONLY LOWER DWPNTS INTO THE MID-UPR 50S AT THE LOWEST. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AROUND WILL LIKELY SEE DWPNTS MOST SPOTS HOVER AROUND 60F MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM MARKEDLY ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR OVR WESTERN CWA. NAM/GFS AVERAGE FOR H85 TEMPS SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOCALLY NEAR 90F IN ISOLD LOCATIONS. RESULTING MLCAPES EASILY PUSH PAST 1000J/KG WITH MINIMAL CINH. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL BE MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP CHANCES GOING INLAND FM THE GREAT LAKES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH AS LAKE BREEZES CEASE AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL 500 MB TROUGH STAGGERED TO THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AXIS RUNNING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL WI AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION AS MANY OF THE ISOBARS ARE OPEN TO THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST HELPING TO FOCUS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MN THROUGH NORTHERN IA. LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. HAVE KEPT FOG OVER THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WAA OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE LAYER IN PLACE...EFFECTIVELY TRAPPING THE MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. FOG POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED TO LATER TIME PERIODS AS WELL DEPENDING ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 500MB AND THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST...REACHING CENTRAL ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS WELL AS FRONTAL POSITION AND TIMING. THE GFS/EC MODELS SHOW THE FRONT OVER WESTERN UPPER MI MONDAY MORNING...PROCEEDING TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY 00Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AS MU CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH THE FRONT ACTING AS THE FORCING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION. LOOKING AT A FEW OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS...CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 700-800 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. SHEAR VECTORS AR EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS FORMING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE. MOST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE THE QPF VALUES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IN THE GFS GUIDANCE WHICH WAS LIKELY CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...SO REDUCED THE PRECIPITATION TOTAL SLIGHTLY USING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE EC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING...THANKS TO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS FLOWING ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO UPPER MI THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW...A TROUGH AT 500 MB WILL ALSO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SHIFTED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.P. AS UPPER LEVEL Q-DIVERGENCE IS COLLOCATED WITH BEST MOISTURE AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING RH FROM 1000MB TO 500MB. DID NOT PLACE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPEARS AS IF CAPE WOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL FOR MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES REMAINING FARTHER WEST OVER MUCH OF MN. FOR FRIDAY THE BEST MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE SLIDES TO THE NORTH...MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 A CONVOLUTED FORECAST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS EVOLUTION OF ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR. ALL SITES SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR THROUGH THE EVENT...EXPECT FOR MVFR CIGS AND VIS AT CMX THIS EVENING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY STAY CLEAR OF IWD AS CAP CONTINUES TO HOLD TO THE WEST. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AIDS FORCING...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF TS. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF CMX AND SAW TAFS UNLESS IT BECOMES CLEAR TS WILL BE MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THANKS TO A STABLE MARINE LAYER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE LAKE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REACH THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...TK MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .AVIATION...18Z TAFS A WEAK WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER ABOUT THE EAST HALF. INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD ALSO INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS THAT WILL AFFECT KINL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG...WITH THEM PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A SECOND FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE CONVERGENT FLOW FROM 925-850MB OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING. WE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAFS EITHER WITH VCTS OR A TEMPO GROUP. LATE TONIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OR END WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. WE KEPT LLWS IN THE TAFS AT BOTH KBRD/KHYR AS SW LLJ DEVELOPS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ UPDATE... AT 15Z...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...AND A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE FA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THAT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S AND AND LOW 70S...AND THERE WERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED WAA EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND WERE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. THERE WERE SOME MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA...TOO. CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF THE FA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT STILL LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WESTERN THREE FOURTHS OF THE FA. RECENT MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON PCPN FOR THE FA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM. HOWEVER...DID NOT WANT TO BACK OFF ON AFTERNOON POPS TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE CLEARING BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY HELP DESTABILIZE MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY DUE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE CLOUD COVER TREND AND ITS POTENTIAL TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ UPDATE...LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI ATTM. THIS PCPN IS DIMINISHING AS THE SUN COMES UP. NOTHING DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS LINE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ SHORT TERM...07Z SFC PRESSURE PLOT PLACED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW WAS ORGANIZING IN SE MANITOBA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT WITH RECENT DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF WAA. STORMS ARE ALSO GETTING SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING EVEN AFTER FROPA AS WAA WILL CONTINUE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF FLATTENS OUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY OVER THE FA WITH GOOD SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H85 COMPUTED LI`S TO -4C AND MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND ITS AFFECT ON DIURNAL HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE ZONES/GRIDS. SEE THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FOR DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AFTER 06Z. MEANWHILE...SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS AND IN THE VCNTY OF LLJ CROSS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD WHERE AN ADDITIONAL SFC BOUNDARY WILL STALL AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN FAR SW ONTARIO. PCPN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z AS LLJ MOVES OFF TO THE E. WAA CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING/SPREADING INTO THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STUCK JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN FOR SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RATHER HOT WITH 80S EXPECTED...A BIT COOLER ALONG THE N SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR CKC/GNA. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A POTENT UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A SFC COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN ND. A STRONG 850MB LLJ...ROUGHLY 50 KTS...WILL ADVECT IN A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD...THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXES. MAINLY ALONG A PATH JUST SOUTH OR PARALLEL TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NRN MN. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED AS A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH N-CENTRAL MN...AND MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG...0-6 KM AGL BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID/STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW LIGHT COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES MONDAY. SO...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN CHC/SLGT CHC POPS DURING THE DAY AND INTO MON NIGHT. A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCES DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY WARM...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 80S...AND EVEN A FEW LOW 90S. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. TEMPS ON TUES AND WED ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS FORECAST GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 59 82 60 84 / 20 10 10 30 INL 56 87 63 83 / 10 10 20 50 BRD 64 89 69 87 / 10 10 10 50 HYR 62 85 63 88 / 20 10 10 20 ASX 61 85 61 87 / 40 10 10 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
254 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT... GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS CLOSED UPPER LOW/STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC-NW...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO MONTANA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON...THEN REACHES OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...MEETING UP WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS... ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP SUGGEST STORM INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST. SO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE MAINLY AFTER 00Z. THE STRONGEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF AROUND 2600 J/KG REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF AROUND -7C ARE INDICATED IN THE SAME AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT...DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50KTS. INVERTED V-SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS WITH ANY STORM. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF TOWARD THE NORTH. WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELECTED WITH THE COORDINATION OF SPC TO TO A SPECIAL SOUNDING AROUND 20Z. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERE WORDING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES... DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST AROUND A HALF INCH OF MOISTURE...BUT 1 HOUR FF GUIDANCE HAS ROOM FOR AROUND AN INCH OR MORE. AFTER MIDNIGHT GROWTH OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AS THEY TREND NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...CONTINUING WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND WINDS. THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN. THEN OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH POPS. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH 20MPH OVER FORT PECK LAKE SATURDAY MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY. THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY...DRAGGING BACK SIDE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH SOMEWHAT CALMER WEATHER CONDITIONS...AT LEAST INITIALLY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMES EVEN WEAKER AND ALLOWS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA FOR QUITE A WHILE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO OUR REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THIS LATER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE CASCADE RANGE AND CUTS OFF AS A LARGE AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES EITHER EAST (GFS) OR NORTHEAST (ECMWF) OUT OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO PART OF MONDAY. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HAS MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. FORRESTER && .AVIATION... SOME SUNSHINE TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OCCASIONALLY AND BRIEFLY TO LIFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BMICKELSON && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
123 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FAIR AND WARM WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE GENERAL TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A BIT DRIER CONDITIONS. A CONSENSUS QPF AMONG THE NAM/RGEM/GFS ALL REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE DRY AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE... EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF ROCHESTER...HAVE SOLID CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NORTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE WILL HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REACH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ML CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES. WHILE THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...WIND PROFILES SHOW SOME WIND SHEAR FROM 925 MB TO 700 MB...SUPPORTING SOME ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. WILL ADD A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN ZONES/GRIDS/HWO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION...A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTION WILL APPROACH EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT...ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER METRO AREAS...RANGING TO THE MID-50S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...AND TRACKS ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A DECENT 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY...AND AT LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE LOOKING A DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CONCENTRATING THE BEST OVERALL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TIMING-WISE...A CONSENSUS OF THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL COME BETWEEN MID SATURDAY MORNING AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FASTER AND MORE INCONSISTENT 00Z GFS DISCARDED AS A FAST OUTLIER. WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT... WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS INDICATED OTHERWISE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN PLAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 80 IN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO GRADUALLY FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF A WARMER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE A RETURN TO QUIETER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BOTH AFTERNOONS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THEREFORE A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH...AS WELL AS A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C AND +16C ON SUNDAY AND THE +16C TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY...EXPECT SURFACE READINGS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WHEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN OUR NORMALLY WARMEST LOCATIONS. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE FOR FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SULTRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC-BASED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VACILLATE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE JUST KEPT BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS IN PLAY FOR BOTH DAYS FOR NOW. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY... THOUGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL /MID-UPPER 70S/ WITH 850 MB READINGS ONLY FALLING BACK TO THE +10C TO +14C RANGE. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. KART WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE AFTERNOON PRESENTING A PERIOD OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE... TIMING WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 00Z. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS THE FINGER LAKES REGION, INCLUDING KROC. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...MVFR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHC SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE...AND WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS/WAVES WILL FALL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE ON EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE BREEZE COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...LEVAN/APFFEL SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...LEVAN MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
334 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .DISCUSSION... LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...EXCEPT IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TONIGHT...CUMULUS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON MESA. IF THESE DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEY COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AND IN FACT...THE RAP SHOWS THIS SCENARIO FOR A BRIEF WINDOW THIS EVENING. HIGH CIN VALUES AND RELATIVELY WEAK 0 TO 6 KM MEAN FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THE OK PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...BUT IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. TOMORROW...THE DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW. BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS PROGRESS EAST...POSSIBLY MOVING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ENTIRELY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLD FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO...IF NOT ENTERING...THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THAT STRONG DAY TIME COLD FRONTS ARE ABNORMAL FOR MID JUNE...EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW IF NOT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE DRYLINE PROGRESSES EAST. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HAVE ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD STILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. STARTING MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANCES FOR STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...IN A STARK DEPARTURE FROM BOTH THE GFS AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF...NOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY BEHIND THE FRONT. AM HESITANT TO GO WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GFS SOLUTION. JOHNSON && .FIRE WEATHER... THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN...AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL PANHANDLES TOMORROW. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND GREEN FUELS...DO NOT EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER EAST...POSSIBLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. STILL...GIVEN THE CONDITION OF THE FUELS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT...WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSH THROUGH ALL OF THE PANHANDLES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER...AND THUS HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. JOHNSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 61 93 59 95 60 / 0 0 0 5 10 BEAVER OK 63 93 63 100 59 / 0 0 0 5 10 BOISE CITY OK 60 97 57 93 56 / 20 0 0 5 10 BORGER TX 65 95 66 98 64 / 0 0 0 5 10 BOYS RANCH TX 62 98 57 98 61 / 0 0 0 5 10 CANYON TX 60 93 56 95 60 / 0 0 0 5 10 CLARENDON TX 62 91 64 96 62 / 0 0 0 5 10 DALHART TX 58 98 50 94 57 / 5 0 0 5 10 GUYMON OK 61 96 59 94 58 / 5 0 0 5 10 HEREFORD TX 59 94 58 95 58 / 0 0 0 5 10 LIPSCOMB TX 65 90 64 97 63 / 0 0 0 5 10 PAMPA TX 61 92 61 94 61 / 0 0 0 5 10 SHAMROCK TX 64 89 64 96 64 / 0 0 0 5 10 WELLINGTON TX 64 91 65 98 65 / 0 0 0 5 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 15/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .AVIATION... PROLONGED IFR CEILINGS AT LBB ARE SLOWLY RISING CLOSER TO MVFR LEVELS THIS HOUR AS RADIATIONAL HEATING BECOMES MORE DIRECT. IN SPITE OF CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE WINDS...AM EXPECTING STRATUS TO THIN OUT AROUND 21Z AND RESTORE VFR LEVELS. SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF LOG CLOUDS TONIGHT AS WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5K FEET WILL BE VEERING MORE S-SWLY AND PULLING IN DRIER AIR. AT CDS...EXPECT VFR STRATUS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTS WESTWARD FROM NORTHWEST TX AND SWRN OK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/ UPDATE... MOIST ELY SURFACE FLOW IS ONCE AGAIN PROVING MORE ROBUST THAN 00Z AND 06Z MODELS HAD ANTICIPATED. MOISTURE DEPTH HAS RECENTLY INCREASED AS SHOWN BY STRATUS LOWERING A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT LUBBOCK AND LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. RECENT RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR LEGITIMATE IN KEEPING THIS STRATUS LAYER LARGELY INTACT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUFFICIENTLY THINNING WITH DIABATIC HEATING. LACK OF A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACT TO KEEP THIS MOIST FETCH IN PLACE LONGER...SO ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH 20Z...HIGH TEMPS WERE TRENDED 3-6 DEG COOLER MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE UPSLOPE LIFT WILL PERSIST. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 61 99 60 96 58 / 10 0 0 0 10 TULIA 62 96 64 96 63 / 10 0 0 0 10 PLAINVIEW 63 96 66 97 64 / 10 0 0 0 10 LEVELLAND 64 98 67 100 63 / 10 0 0 0 10 LUBBOCK 65 98 68 101 65 / 10 0 0 0 10 DENVER CITY 65 100 66 100 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 65 98 68 100 64 / 10 0 0 0 10 CHILDRESS 65 95 68 100 68 / 10 10 10 0 10 SPUR 64 94 68 100 69 / 10 10 10 0 10 ASPERMONT 65 96 70 101 71 / 10 10 10 0 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1044 AM PDT Fri Jun 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A broad low pressure system spinning over the region will continue to fuel widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Saturday. Sunday will be a marginally drier day in Washington...with wet conditions persisting in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures will be well below normal. Temperatures will temporarily warm to seasonal levels for the beginning of the work week...but unsettled weather will likely return by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Forecast for the rest of today is in good shape with just minor updates made to the forecast. Satellite imagery shows a closed low off the Washington coast that will drop southeast moving into Northwest Oregon this evening. Moist diffluent southerly flow and lift ahead of the low will trigger showers across the Inland Northwest today. Increased instability this afternoon will also aid in shower development with HRRR data indicating increasing showers over the Inland Northwest this afternoon. A cold pool at 500mb will track over the area this afternoon with values of -25 to -27C over the area. Instability will be greatest over the Cascades which is in closest proximity to the cold pool with the low...and over the northern mountains where low level moisture is highest. LAPS analysis as of 17z (10 am) already was indicating surface based CAPES of 200-600 J/KG in these areas. Thus isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. Numerous rain showers are expected in the mountains as well as the Okanogan and Methow Valleys today with scattered showers elsewhere. JW && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: An unstable atmosphere this afternoon under a cold trough will promote increasing showers as well as isolated thunderstorms. These storms will be focused mainly over the Cascades, mountains near the Canadian Border, and over the Blue Mountains. However can not completely rule out a thunderstorm at any of the TAF sites. But given low probability of one storm impacting a TAF site left mention out of forecast with CB cloud group mentioned. The showers should begin to decrease after 03z Saturday with the loss of daytime heating. As the low moves east Saturday morning a band of showers will rotate south out of Canada into Central and Northeast Washington and the North Idaho Panhandle 12-18z Sat. Abundant low level moisture and rain may lead to MVFR conditions at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. JW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 59 39 54 43 67 46 / 50 50 80 60 20 10 Coeur d`Alene 60 39 53 46 63 47 / 50 60 80 70 40 10 Pullman 55 37 53 43 62 44 / 50 50 80 60 20 10 Lewiston 60 42 62 48 70 49 / 40 50 70 50 20 0 Colville 61 40 57 47 74 46 / 70 60 80 60 20 10 Sandpoint 60 38 53 45 60 45 / 70 70 80 70 50 20 Kellogg 56 39 49 42 56 44 / 70 80 80 80 70 10 Moses Lake 64 44 67 48 76 50 / 30 40 40 10 10 0 Wenatchee 62 45 64 49 76 52 / 50 50 20 10 0 0 Omak 62 44 65 46 78 47 / 60 60 60 10 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1216 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TODAY...THEN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MINNESOTA. REGARDING THE DEEP TROUGH...500MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 2 BELOW NORMAL. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PROFILER AND RADAR DATA SHOWED AN 850MB JET OF 30-40 KT FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND WARMTH. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C IN THIS JET AREA...COMPARED TO 14C AT DLH AND LA CROSSE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS IS QUITE INTERESTING...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE...I.E. VALUES GREATER THAN 1 INCH...SITTING MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. VALUES DROP TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...MISSOURI AND IOWA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MINNESOTA WHERE VALUES ARE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAXIMA OF MOISTURE IS FUELING CONVECTION THAT HAS FIRED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL DPVA FORCED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE ARE ALSO ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT SOME...IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME FORM OF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST BECAUSE OF THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE IS CRITICAL TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SINCE IT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE...GRADUALLY SPREADING CAPPING NORTHWARD AND BRING IN THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SEEN TO OUR SOUTH. FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION NORTH OF I-94 WHERE 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE A TREND THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE CONVECTION TO LIFT NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 WHERE DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH CONTINUED 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. IN FACT...THE OVERALL FORCING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FAIRLY WEAK...AND AS SUCH KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20-40 RANGE. SHOULD WE GET SOME STORMS IN OUR AREA...MAINLY JUST TAYLOR COUNTY WOULD HAVE A SHOT TO SEE SEVERE CONVECTION...IN THE 21-03Z WINDOW WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE QUIET WITH THE MAX MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 15-16C BY 18Z...DRY GROUND AND A BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 80S...WITH MOST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW READINGS AROUND 90 ARE POSSIBLE TOO. THE COMBINATION OF A WARMER DAY TODAY AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE 60S. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A WARM SECTOR FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WELL AGREED UPON TO AT MOST IN EASTWARD PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS MEANS ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A SLIM SHOT OF SOMETHING COMING INTO SOUTHEAST MN VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...IF THE FRONT CAN CONVECT AND CONVECTION CAN SPREAD EAST FAST ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...WITH THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE AREA (LOWEST ON SATURDAY)...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 850MB TEMPS OF 17-19C ON BOTH DAYS...THE DRY AIRMASS AND DRY GROUND...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALL FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MIXING. SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. ALTHOUGH 850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WOULD NORMALLY NOT SUPPORT RECORD LEVELS...ONLY BEING 1-1.5 ABOVE NORMAL...LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 93-96 RANGE. THEREFORE...WE MAY GET CLOSE TO RECORDS. ANTICIPATING LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE 60S...AIDED BY THE DRY AIRMASS. DID STAY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS/GROUND. SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST. WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN MORE TO EITHER RIGHT ON THE FRONT OR POST-FRONTAL. THERE ARE DECENT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS THAT COME INTO THE AREA...ABOUT 50-70 METERS IN 12 HOURS AT 500MB. THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGING UP TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT PLUS THE INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE AND OELWEIN. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS MEAGER...DUE TO THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR POST-FRONTAL. IN FACT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE 0-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 20-25KT. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5-4 KM AND MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE NOT FAVORABLE EITHER FOR SEVERE. MAYBE AT MOST WE END UP WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 60S ON TAP...PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE 08.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIAL UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AT 12Z MONDAY SHOULD HEAD UP INTO ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AGAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINTAINED 60 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS. IN FACT...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE LOCATIONS LIKE ROCHESTER COULD END UP DRY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE...THEN COMES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DID MAINTAIN SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS UP...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ABLE TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD END UP AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY...DUE TO 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C TO 6-10C. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20 PERCENT CHANCES...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. UPPER RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD UP INTO OUR AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO AT LEAST NORMAL BY THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SHAPING UP AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...LIKE THIS WEEKEND...WELL AGREED UPON BY THE LAST COUPLE ECMWF...GFS AND CFS RUNS. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY 1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO CREATE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND LOOSE THE GUSTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SHOULD SEE THE GUSTS DEVELOP AGAIN AT BOTH SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. ONCE THESE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...04