Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/08/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1036 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.UPDATE...
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED WSW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
STATE WITH A SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS TRIGGERED A FAIRLY LARGE BATCH OF
STORMS THAT HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD ESE INTO THE TAMPA MARINE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST 23Z HRRR RUN DOES INITIALIZE WELL WITH
THIS BATCH OF STORMS OFF OF TAMPA`S COAST AND GENERALLY SHOWS IT
CONTINUING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE LOCALLY RUN WRF...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE NEXT BEST SOLUTION HANDLING THIS GULF ACTIVITY INDICATES A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERING
THESE DIFFERENCES...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS INTO THE NIGHT AND UPDATE AS
NEEDED. SLIGHTLY UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. 85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012/
AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. KEPT VCSH THROUGH 08/01Z AT ALL EASTERN TERMINALS EXCEPT
KPBI. THEN...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT VCTS BY 08/14Z. FOR KPBI...KEPT
VCSH OVERNIGHT...SWITCHING TO VCTS BY 08/14Z. FOR KAPF...DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND VCTS BEGINNING AT 08/14Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012/
.ONE MORE DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BEFORE MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME WEATHER RETURNS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SHORT WAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA ON FRIDAY...AS THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES EAST AND THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ALONG WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED POPS FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS
TONIGHT...WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEE SCATTERED POPS THIS
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING DOWN TO ISOLATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE POPS ON FRIDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY RANGE
OVER THE AREAS NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY...WHILE SOUTH OF THE
ALLIGATOR ALLEY THE POPS WILL BE IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD GET BACK TO MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS OVER
THE CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND.
THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO GET BACK TO
MORE OF A SUMMER TIME CONDITIONS. HIGHS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND AROUND
90 INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.
LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN
PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE HIGHEST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...AS THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WEAKENS.
THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA BACK INTO A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW
AND SHIFT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF POPS BACK TO THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
OVER ALL THE LOCAL WATERS...AS THEY SWING FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THIS WEEKEND. THE
SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 90 75 88 / 40 60 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 78 87 / 40 60 40 40
MIAMI 77 91 77 89 / 40 50 30 40
NAPLES 77 89 75 88 / 40 60 40 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...17/ERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
143 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.AVIATION...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA NEXT 24 HRS. DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS ALL TAFS THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL MENTION VCSH MOST TAFS OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS HAVE FINALLY
BEGUN TO SWITCH TO SE ACROSS ERN TERMINALS AND WILL EXPECT ALL OF
THEM TO REMAIN SE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DECREASING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. KAPF SHOULD REMAIN OUT THE SW AT ARND 13 KTS, BUT
BECOME SE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 8-10 KTS SHOULD
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
GENERATING SOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
THIS SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS TO MOVE EAST AND INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED POPS OVER THE CWA FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THIS MORNING ARE IN LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE CWA...HIGHS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
HIGHS AROUND 90 OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS FOR TODAY.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ARE STILL COOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
JET OF 30 KNOTS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG OVER THE CWA
TODAY WITH HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
AREA. WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BRIEF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING CELLS. AFTER 00Z, SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST COAST AFTER 14Z. AT KAPF,
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WSW BY 16Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY THE
NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NEARLY IDENTICAL. HAVING STATED THAT,
THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS TYPICAL MESOSCALE
BIAS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER POPS FROM DAY TO DAY. ONE INTERESTING
NOTE TOO IS THAT THE HRRR WHICH IS A NORMALLY VERY USEFUL SHORT
TERM MODEL HAS APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED BADLY THIS EVENING AND
SHOWS A LARGE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE W CST JUST NORTH OF
APF AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE OKEE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GOFMEX AT THIS TIME, THIS
SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FACTORS OF THAT TYPE OF AN EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THEREFORE DO NOT PLACE MUCH EMPHASIS ON ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY.
THERE IS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF THE
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK KEEPING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE FL STRAITS. THESE
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FAVOR A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND A
CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR S FL WITH
CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ABOUT THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IN THE MAIN THREE MODELS IS ON FRIDAY WHERE THE 00Z GFS
AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEE BY
LATE FRIDAY AND THE NAM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVE THESE DIFFERENCES, NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER
POPS FOR FRIDAY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT
COVERAGE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE OVER S FL ON
SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SCT POPS. FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO
APPARENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE GFS MOVES
THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD
TEND TO GIVE S FL A QUITE DIFFERENT WX PATTERN WITH THE GFS
PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRYING PATTERN.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCT ACTIVITY UNTIL THERE IS A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH.
MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS. THERE IS
AN INDICATION OF A SHORT FUSED WIND SURGE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
HEIGHTS. THE FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 87 74 88 / 30 40 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 88 76 90 / 20 40 40 50
MIAMI 79 89 76 90 / 20 40 40 50
NAPLES 76 86 75 86 / 20 30 30 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
1038 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
GENERATING SOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
THIS SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS TO MOVE EAST AND INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED POPS OVER THE CWA FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THIS MORNING ARE IN LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE CWA...HIGHS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
HIGHS AROUND 90 OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS FOR TODAY.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ARE STILL COOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
JET OF 30 KNOTS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG OVER THE CWA
TODAY WITH HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
AREA. WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BRIEF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING CELLS. AFTER 00Z, SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST COAST AFTER 14Z. AT KAPF,
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WSW BY 16Z.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY THE
NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NEARLY IDENTICAL. HAVING STATED THAT,
THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS TYPICAL MESOSCALE
BIAS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER POPS FROM DAY TO DAY. ONE INTERESTING
NOTE TOO IS THAT THE HRRR WHICH IS A NORMALLY VERY USEFUL SHORT
TERM MODEL HAS APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED BADLY THIS EVENING AND
SHOWS A LARGE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE W CST JUST NORTH OF
APF AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE OKEE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GOFMEX AT THIS TIME, THIS
SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FACTORS OF THAT TYPE OF AN EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THEREFORE DO NOT PLACE MUCH EMPHASIS ON ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY.
THERE IS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF THE
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK KEEPING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE FL STRAITS. THESE
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FAVOR A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND A
CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR S FL WITH
CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ABOUT THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IN THE MAIN THREE MODELS IS ON FRIDAY WHERE THE 00Z GFS
AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEE BY
LATE FRIDAY AND THE NAM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVE THESE DIFFERENCES, NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER
POPS FOR FRIDAY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT
COVERAGE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE OVER S FL ON
SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SCT POPS. FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO
APPARENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE GFS MOVES
THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD
TEND TO GIVE S FL A QUITE DIFFERENT WX PATTERN WITH THE GFS
PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRYING PATTERN.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCT ACTIVITY UNTIL THERE IS A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH.
MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS. THERE IS
AN INDICATION OF A SHORT FUSED WIND SURGE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
HEIGHTS. THE FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 76 87 74 / 50 30 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 88 76 / 40 20 40 40
MIAMI 89 79 89 76 / 40 20 40 40
NAPLES 87 76 86 75 / 50 20 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...14/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
813 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
AREA. WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BRIEF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING CELLS. AFTER 00Z, SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST COAST AFTER 14Z. AT KAPF,
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WSW BY 16Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY THE
NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NEARLY IDENTICAL. HAVING STATED THAT,
THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS TYPICAL MESOSCALE
BIAS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER POPS FROM DAY TO DAY. ONE INTERESTING
NOTE TOO IS THAT THE HRRR WHICH IS A NORMALLY VERY USEFUL SHORT
TERM MODEL HAS APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED BADLY THIS EVENING AND
SHOWS A LARGE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE W CST JUST NORTH OF
APF AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE OKEE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GOFMEX AT THIS TIME, THIS
SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FACTORS OF THAT TYPE OF AN EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THEREFORE DO NOT PLACE MUCH EMPHASIS ON ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY.
THERE IS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF THE
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK KEEPING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE FL STRAITS. THESE
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FAVOR A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND A
CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR S FL WITH
CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ABOUT THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IN THE MAIN THREE MODELS IS ON FRIDAY WHERE THE 00Z GFS
AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEE BY
LATE FRIDAY AND THE NAM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVE THESE DIFFERENCES, NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER
POPS FOR FRIDAY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT
COVERAGE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE OVER S FL ON
SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SCT POPS. FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO
APPARENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE GFS MOVES
THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD
TEND TO GIVE S FL A QUITE DIFFERENT WX PATTERN WITH THE GFS
PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRYING PATTERN.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCT ACTIVITY UNTIL THERE IS A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH.
MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS. THERE IS
AN INDICATION OF A SHORT FUSED WIND SURGE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
HEIGHTS. THE FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 87 74 / 30 30 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 88 76 / 20 20 40 40
MIAMI 88 79 89 76 / 20 20 40 40
NAPLES 86 76 86 75 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...14/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY THE
NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NEARLY IDENTICAL. HAVING STATED THAT,
THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS TYPICAL MESOSCALE
BIAS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER POPS FROM DAY TO DAY. ONE INTERESTING
NOTE TOO IS THAT THE HRRR WHICH IS A NORMALLY VERY USEFUL SHORT
TERM MODEL HAS APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED BADLY THIS EVENING AND
SHOWS A LARGE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE W CST JUST NORTH OF
APF AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE OKEE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GOFMEX AT THIS TIME, THIS
SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FACTORS OF THAT TYPE OF AN EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THEREFORE DO NOT PLACE MUCH EMPHASIS ON ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY.
THERE IS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF THE
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK KEEPING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE FL STRAITS. THESE
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FAVOR A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND A
CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR S FL WITH
CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ABOUT THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IN THE MAIN THREE MODELS IS ON FRIDAY WHERE THE 00Z GFS
AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEE BY
LATE FRIDAY AND THE NAM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVE THESE DIFFERENCES, NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER
POPS FOR FRIDAY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT
COVERAGE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE OVER S FL ON
SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SCT POPS. FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO
APPARENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE GFS MOVES
THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD
TEND TO GIVE S FL A QUITE DIFFERENT WX PATTERN WITH THE GFS
PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRYING PATTERN.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCT ACTIVITY UNTIL THERE IS A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS. THERE IS
AN INDICATION OF A SHORT FUSED WIND SURGE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
HEIGHTS. THE FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 87 74 / 30 30 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 88 76 / 20 20 40 40
MIAMI 88 79 89 76 / 20 20 40 40
NAPLES 86 76 86 75 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...14/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1245 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH IA LOCATED ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE EASTERN TROUGH. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY EXISTS ACRS CENTRAL IA WHERE 850MB
CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
THE PCPN HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY
ON THE WESTERN SIDE AWAY FROM THE DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS ISOLD
CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD
THUNDER TO A SIGNIFICANT SECTION OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. THE
FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AS 850MB RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO EASTERN IA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE
EAST TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE WILL SEE INTERMITTENT OPPORTUNITIES
FOR A FEW POPCORN STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...GENERATED BY RIPPLES IN
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MID-LEVEL RIPPLES RIDING OVER THE
APPROACHING RIDGE. PINNING DOWN THESE SUBTLE FEATURES IS VERY
DIFFICULT...HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY RESULTING STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SO HAVE
TRENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. AT ANY RATE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD COINCIDENT WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY. HAVE ONCE AGAIN NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THE MOS GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING
THE DEGREE OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND RECENT CLIMATOLOGY/MODEL BIASES.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING AS A LARGE 500 MB
GYRE MOVES ROUGHLY EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. BY
SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA OR
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING AROUND IT
LIKE SPOKES ON A WHEEL. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
OUR CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREIN LIES THE ISSUE
AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT IN WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS OUR AREA.
THIS WILL AFFECT ALL FORECAST FIELDS MOST NOTABLY TEMPERATURES AND
POPS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST...THE EC MUCH SLOWER...AND
THE GEM IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE NOT MADE
TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ALLBLEND POPULATION FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER THE GFS DOES SEEM TOO FAST WITH ITS FRONTAL
PROGRESSION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK AND CONFINED THEM TO OUR
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO REFLECT
THIS. ALSO REMOVED POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE SLOW EC HAS THE
FRONT AND PRECIP CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY THEN. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK WE CONTINUE TO SEE A MORE ZONAL 500 MB PATTERN ON THE
HORIZON...WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF TO MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...06/18Z
NON-DESCRIPT RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS IOWA AND
TRANSITIONAL AREAS OF WEAK LIFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST INTERESTING
FOR TAF LOCATIONS. WE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BUT
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP AT ANY TIME...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS. WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREAS FROM 21Z TO 00Z THEN
TONIGHT BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL PERIOD OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
TONIGHT AND BE LIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
637 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH IA LOCATED ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE EASTERN TROUGH. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY EXISTS ACRS CENTRAL IA WHERE 850MB
CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
THE PCPN HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY
ON THE WESTERN SIDE AWAY FROM THE DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS ISOLD
CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD
THUNDER TO A SIGNIFICANT SECTION OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. THE
FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AS 850MB RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO EASTERN IA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE
EAST TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE WILL SEE INTERMITTENT OPPORTUNITIES
FOR A FEW POPCORN STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...GENERATED BY RIPPLES IN
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MID-LEVEL RIPPLES RIDING OVER THE
APPROACHING RIDGE. PINNING DOWN THESE SUBTLE FEATURES IS VERY
DIFFICULT...HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY RESULTING STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SO HAVE
TRENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. AT ANY RATE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD COINCIDENT WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY. HAVE ONCE AGAIN NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THE MOS GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING
THE DEGREE OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND RECENT CLIMATOLOGY/MODEL BIASES.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING AS A LARGE 500 MB
GYRE MOVES ROUGHLY EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. BY
SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA OR
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING AROUND IT
LIKE SPOKES ON A WHEEL. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
OUR CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREIN LIES THE ISSUE
AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT IN WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS OUR AREA.
THIS WILL AFFECT ALL FORECAST FIELDS MOST NOTABLY TEMPERATURES AND
POPS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST...THE EC MUCH SLOWER...AND
THE GEM IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE NOT MADE
TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ALLBLEND POPULATION FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER THE GFS DOES SEEM TOO FAST WITH ITS FRONTAL
PROGRESSION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK AND CONFINED THEM TO OUR
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO REFLECT
THIS. ALSO REMOVED POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE SLOW EC HAS THE
FRONT AND PRECIP CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY THEN. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK WE CONTINUE TO SEE A MORE ZONAL 500 MB PATTERN ON THE
HORIZON...WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF TO MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...06/12Z
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINTAIN DURING
THE MORNING BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME AS FOCUS SHIFTS
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME. VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY EAST OF AN KLWD-KDSM-KMCW LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON BUT WILL RELAX BY EVENING AS MIXING
SUBSIDES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH
ANY THREAT OF PCPN CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN IOWA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
326 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH IA LOCATED ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE EASTERN TROUGH. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY EXISTS ACRS CENTRAL IA WHERE 850MB
CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
THE PCPN HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY
ON THE WESTERN SIDE AWAY FROM THE DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS ISOLD
CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD
THUNDER TO A SIGNIFICANT SECTION OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. THE
FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AS 850MB RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO EASTERN IA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE
EAST TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE WILL SEE INTERMITTENT OPPORTUNITIES
FOR A FEW POPCORN STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...GENERATED BY RIPPLES IN
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MID-LEVEL RIPPLES RIDING OVER THE
APPROACHING RIDGE. PINNING DOWN THESE SUBTLE FEATURES IS VERY
DIFFICULT...HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY RESULTING STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SO HAVE
TRENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. AT ANY RATE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD COINCIDENT WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY. HAVE ONCE AGAIN NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THE MOS GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING
THE DEGREE OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND RECENT CLIMATOLOGY/MODEL BIASES.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING AS A LARGE 500 MB
GYRE MOVES ROUGHLY EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. BY
SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA OR
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING AROUND IT
LIKE SPOKES ON A WHEEL. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
OUR CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREIN LIES THE ISSUE
AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT IN WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS OUR AREA.
THIS WILL AFFECT ALL FORECAST FIELDS MOST NOTABLY TEMPERATURES AND
POPS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST...THE EC MUCH SLOWER...AND
THE GEM IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE NOT MADE
TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ALLBLEND POPULATION FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER THE GFS DOES SEEM TOO FAST WITH ITS FRONTAL
PROGRESSION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK AND CONFINED THEM TO OUR
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO REFLECT
THIS. ALSO REMOVED POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE SLOW EC HAS THE
FRONT AND PRECIP CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY THEN. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK WE CONTINUE TO SEE A MORE ZONAL 500 MB PATTERN ON THE
HORIZON...WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF TO MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...06/06Z
WEAK WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
EVENING. EAST WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN NEAR
12KT WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS THIS EVENING. THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
EXPECT THAT AMBIENT WIND WILL HANG ON TO ABOUT 10-11KTS OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED IN ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS
AND VFR CIGS...BKN080 TO BKN110 TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AS FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL FOLLOW
INTO NORTHWEST IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
KFOD AFT 18Z BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCE DUE TO
COVERAGE AND LOW CHANCES. AREA MAY SEE SOME HZ BETWEEN 11 AND 14Z
PRIOR TO DIURNAL WARMING. WINDS WILL AGAIN MIX TO 9 TO 11KTS BY 16Z
WITH MINIMAL GUSTS ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1122 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED POPS FOR A NEW BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING THE MTNS OF
ME/NH AROUND 09Z. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR MODEL. HAVE
ADJUSTED DEW POINTS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE ENTERING THE REGION.
REST OF THE GRIDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.
PREV DISC...
SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIE
OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WEAK DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN ZONES BUT POPS LOOKING A BIT HIGH SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE
SHOULD JUST SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. WILL
AGAIN SEE LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
FREEZING LEVEL AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST. WILL SEE TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WITH ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE CLEARING WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES SLIDES THRU OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IS SANDWICHED BY
WEAK UPR LVL AND SFC IMPULSES TO PROVIDE A SLGT CHC TO MAYBE A CHC
OF -SHRA JUST BARELY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW -SHRA MAY JUST REACH INTO OUR FCST AREA.
STRONG UPR LVL AND SFC RIDGE BUILD IN WITH DRY AND WARMING WX FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN UPR LVL TROF AND APPROACHING SLOW MOVING
FNT BRING A CHC OF SHRA TUESDAY NGT THRU THURSDAY.
GENERALLY USED GFS40...HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NGT. FOR REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST USED GMOS...EXCEPT
USED A BLEND OF GFS40 AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT....IMPROVING TO VFR ON FRIDAY. AREAS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. VFR
WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN
KEEPS WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
715 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AS WILL THE SCT CU FIELD. DIURNAL CU
FIELD WILL BE RELATIVELY MEAGER TOMORROW WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES SOUTHEAST
AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 331 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
LATEST RAP BASED MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS ARE HIGHLIGHTING MUCAPES OF
APPROXIMATELY 200-500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS IS DOWN
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE 12Z DTX RAOB BUT IN LOCKSTEP WITH 07.12Z
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. FORECAST SOUNDING DIAGNOSIS SHOWS SUBTLE
600-400MB WARMING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...IN TOW OF THE
LATE MORNING SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THIS VERY SUBTLE WARMING APPEARS
ENOUGH TO KNOCK OUT ANY STEEPER LAPSE RATES RESIDING IN THE
MIDLEVELS. SO...WHILE AN ISO-SCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IS STILL POSSIBLE HERE AT PEAK HEATING (SEE SAGINAW BAY CONVECTIVE
FIELD)...OVERALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY MOVING
FORWARD/NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE SAME CONVECTIVE VIGOR AS YESTERDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK MIDLEVEL WARMING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED
MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTREMELY LOW. EXPECT A
NICE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN INTO THE 50S
ALL AREAS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING LARGE SCALE PATTERN DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN RECENT DAYS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO REORIENT EASTWARD BEGINNING
ON FRIDAY. LONGWAVE ADJUSTMENT WILL BE ANCHORED BY A STRONG LEAD
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON CARVING INTO THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE PERIPHERY ALIGNED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WHILE THIS WILL BRIEFLY DAMPEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT
FIELD AS THE ENTIRE RIDGE AXIS EASES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY....THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPER/STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY GRADIENT ON THE NORTH PERIPHERY OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN THIS WELL MIXED PROFILE INTO 800 MB TEMPERATURES
RESIDING IN THE 10C RANGE...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS PREDOMINATELY IN THE
LOWER 80S. WEAK MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPILLING EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WILL SCRAPE THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB
TOWARD THE END OF THE HEATING CYCLE. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS 300-400 J/KG OF MUCAPE EMERGES
IN A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CREST THE UPPER RIDGE
ARCING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL LIKELY COMMENCE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION RESIDING THROUGH THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE DAY...BEFORE EVENTUALLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST ARRAY OF MODEL
GUIDANCE HOLDING FIRM IN PROJECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HOLD TO OUR
NORTH AS IT ALIGNS EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PRIMARY BUT WEAKENING
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. A LOWER PROBABILITY CERTAINLY EXISTS GIVEN
THE SETUP FOR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT TO CLIP AT LEAST THE TRI-CITIES/
THUMB SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING...WORTHY OF A SMALL POP. REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY INCREMENTALLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REAMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ASSUMING
NEARLY FULL INSOLATION AND A STANDARD MIXING PROFILE...THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.
DEEP WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. EXPANSIVE
HEIGHT FALL REGION TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SAME TIME...LOOSELY ORGANIZED CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MEANDERING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BEGIN THE GRADUAL TREK NORTHEAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREE ON WHAT DEGREE THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL
MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING LARGER SCALE WESTERN TROUGH. 12Z GFS
LOCKS ON MORE AGGRESSIVELY...DRIVING AN ATTENDANT PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. A ECMWF/CANADIAN CONSENSUS ALLOWS FOR MORE
SEPARATION...LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO A CONSIDERABLY LESS DEEP UPSTREAM
LONGWAVE TROUGH...LEAVING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TUESDAY
PERIOD ATTENDANT WITH THE ARRIVING DEEPER HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC MONDAY
SHOULD A THICKER HIGH CLOUD CANOPY EMERGE EARLY...ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH
TO THE WARM LAYER BY THIS POINT STILL SUPPORTS HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER
80S.
MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
WEEK WITH NORTHWEST ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OFF OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AS THIS HIGH SETTLES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL MODERATE BY THIS WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...AND WHILE MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WILL REMAIN DRY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME OVER LAKE HURON. THIS
INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS OVER
THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....AGD
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
331 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT
BLOCKING UPR LO OVER NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN
THE PLAINS. SHRTWV ROTATING SWWD THRU QUEBEC IN CYC NE FLOW ALF ARND
THE CLOSED LO AND ACCOMPANYING AREA OF MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON WV IMAGE
AND SPC DIAGNOSED AREA OF KINX AOA 30 IS CAUSING SOME CLDS/A FEW
-SHRA OVER ERN LK SUP INTO ERN UPR MI INTO EARLY AFTN. ANOTHER
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS UNDER NNW FLOW IS
SINKING SSEWD THRU MN...BRINGING SOME SCT SHRA/TS TO MAINLY NE MN
UNDER STEEPER H85-5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB/AREA OF
HIER KINX NEAR 35 SHOWN ON SPC ANALYSIS/AREA OF H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH MN SHRTWV AS DIAGNOSED BY MAJORITY OF MODELS. A FEW
-SHRA ON THE ERN EDGE OF THIS AREA HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR WRN CWA
IWD. BTWN THESE TWO AREAS OF -SHRA...SFC/H85 HI PRES EXTENDING FM NW
ONTARIO THRU CNTRL LK SUP/UPR MI AND INTO NE WI AS WELL AS AXIS OF
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB /KINX 7/ IS
BRINGING MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WX.
TNGT...AFT ANY LINGERING DIURNAL -SHRA OVER THE W END EARLY THIS
EVNG...EXPECT A TRANQUIL NGT WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/
SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING SFC-H85 RDG AXIS OVER UPR MI. WITH MOCLR
SKIES/LGT WINDS/FCST PWAT 0.60-0.75 INCH ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NGT
AND DEWPTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID/UPR 30S THIS AFTN...EXPECT A
STEEP FALL OF TEMP TNGT BLO BULK OF GUIDANCE AND TOWARD READINGS AS
LO AS THE 30S OVER THE INTERIOR THAT WERE REPORTED THIS MRNG.
THU...UNDER RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC...SFC HI PRES
RDG AXIS WL BRING A DRY DAY TO THE CWA WITH SOME DIURNAL CU INLAND
FM LK BREEZES THAT FORM WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVHD.
WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT ARND 13C...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
AS 500MB LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY...STRONG OMEGA BLOCKING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LESS AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. STRONG 500MB LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING
ALBERTA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING EASTWARD TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPPER MI WILL BE LOCATED ON THE DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE DE-AMPLIFYING
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG 500MB LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP A RIDGING PATTERN
OVER UPPER MI ALOFT...WITH CORRESPONDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO
FLATTEN...SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEGIN
IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING
TO TRAVEL JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS WAA AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE TO 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS FAR AS
CONVECTION...DESPITE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE CWA...GFS MEAN
LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE /500-1000 J/KG/ AND
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE FAVORABLE OVER UPPER MI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR AND FRONTOGENESIS COULD STILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS BEING SAID...INCREASED POP VALUES TO LIKELY OVER AREAS OF BEST
FORCING...WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN MODERATE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES /30-40KTS/ AND A MORE FAVORABLE LOOKING CAPE
PROFILE WITH THIS LAST MODEL RUN...NEXT UPDATES MAY DECIDE TO GO
LIKELY TSRA AS WELL. REGARDLESS...THINK MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN. GFS BULLSEYES WELL OVER 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI...THOUGH REST OF MODELS SHOW MUCH LOWER VALUES WITH
THE MAIN PRECIP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A COMBINATION
OF THE NAM/ECMWF AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TO DERIVE QPF. BEST FORCING
AND MOISTURE WILL THEN EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST SATURDAY...WITH
SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF RAIN FAR EAST DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REGAIN CONTROL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT RESULTING LAKE BREEZES
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. AS
LAKE BREEZES CONVERGE IN THE AFTERNOON...WARM UNSTABLE AIR INTERIOR
WEST COULD RISE AND SPAWN A FEW TSRA/SHRA. EXACT SET UP AND LOCATION
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CAPE VALUES /800-1100 J/KG ML CAPE/ AND HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND.
MEANWHILE...STRONG 500MB LOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF TSRA/SHRA DURING PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. AFTER
PASSAGE...DRIER SOUTHERLY AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO UPPER
MI...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WI BORDER TO RISE TO THE UPPER
80S. TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOLER AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...500MB LOW WILL HAVE REACHED LAKE WINNIPEG...WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PROTRUDING AHEAD OF IT AND STRETCHING DOWN INTO
TEXAS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER UPPER MI WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD...SO WILL
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT...TRAVERSING
UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ ARE A GOOD
INDICATOR THAT TSRA ACTIVITY COULD VERY WELL BE PRESENT. 1000-2000
J/KG ML CAPE VALUES ALONG WITH A FAT CAPE PROFILE ALSO SUPPORT THIS
IDEA. SINCE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY INCONSISTENT ON EXACT TIMING FOR THE
PRECIP REACHING AND EXITING UPPER MI...WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME...WITH BEST FORCING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXITING EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT...BOTH EXTENDING FROM THE SAME 500MB LOW /NOW
OVER JAMES BAY/...WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THEN TRAVERSING UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING LAKE SUP THRU THU NGT...EXPECT WINDS LESS
THAN 20 KTS. ALTHOUGH A PAIR OF LO PRES SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI INTO SAT AND AGAIN ON MON...THE HI
STABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATERS WILL HOLD WIND SPEEDS
TO NO HIER THAN 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT
BLOCKING UPR LO OVER NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN
THE PLAINS. SHRTWV ROTATING SWWD THRU QUEBEC IN CYC NE FLOW ALF ARND
THE CLOSED LO AND ACCOMPANYING AREA OF MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON WV IMAGE
AND SPC DIAGNOSED AREA OF KINX AOA 30 IS CAUSING SOME CLDS/A FEW
-SHRA OVER ERN LK SUP INTO ERN UPR MI INTO EARLY AFTN. ANOTHER
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS UNDER NNW FLOW IS
SINKING SSEWD THRU MN...BRINGING SOME SCT SHRA/TS TO MAINLY NE MN
UNDER STEEPER H85-5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB/AREA OF
HIER KINX NEAR 35 SHOWN ON SPC ANALYSIS/AREA OF H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH MN SHRTWV AS DIAGNOSED BY MAJORITY OF MODELS. A FEW
-SHRA ON THE ERN EDGE OF THIS AREA HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR WRN CWA
IWD. BTWN THESE TWO AREAS OF -SHRA...SFC/H85 HI PRES EXTENDING FM NW
ONTARIO THRU CNTRL LK SUP/UPR MI AND INTO NE WI AS WELL AS AXIS OF
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB /KINX 7/ IS
BRINGING MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WX.
REST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME DIURNAL CLDS ARE LIKELY TO DVLP OVER
THE CNTRL CWA WITH CONVECTIVE TEMP ON THE GRB RAOB ARND 70...EXPECT
ANY -SHRA TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR ERN CWA UNDER THE AREA OF MID
LVL MSTR/HIER KINX AND THE W NEAR THE WI BORDER INLAND FM LK BREEZE
PENETRATION. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE PENETRATION OF THE LK SUP BREEZE/
ACCOMPANYING STABILIZATION INTO THE ERN CWA WITH NW FLOW TO THE E OF
HI PRES RDG AXIS IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS ANY -SHRA THERE BY MID AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NE CONUS AND ANOTHER OVER THE PAC NW.
BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS...UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NRN PLAINS...WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS ATTEMPTING TO ROUND
THE RIDGE. THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY...AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH AND MOVING SW THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
IT/S PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER ONTARIO AND A FEW RADAR RETURNS
OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT THE CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED AND DIMINISHING
SOME. THIS WAVE AND MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SW ACROSS ERN CWA THIS
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS IT DROPS S INTO NRN LOWER MI. THIS
MOISTURE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE INITIAL CU OVER THE ERN CWA THAT
DEVELOPS TOWARDS MID-DAY. BUT THE MORE NRLY AND STRONGER PUSH OF LK
SUPERIOR BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN.
SECOND WAVE FARTHER NE IN WRN QUEBEC IS PROGGED TO DROP SW AND
TOWARDS LK HURON AND SHOULDN/T HAVE ANY EFFECT ON THE CWA. THINKING
IS THESE TWO SHORTWAVES WILL HELP PUSH SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS DROPPING SSE THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE W OF THE
LAND CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...WHICH ALL KEEP THE
DEEP H700-300 Q-VECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER ERN MN AND
JUST BRUSHING FAR WRN LK SUPERIOR.
HI-RES MODELS SHOWING THE LK SUPERIOR BREEZE BEING THE DOMINATE
LK BREEZE TODAY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER NRLY FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SFC OVER THE ERN CWA FROM A SLIGHTLY FARTHER W SFC HIGH POSITION
OVER LK SUPERIOR. THIS LK BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST AND LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO IRON COUNTY AREA...BUT SOME LIGHT
RETURN FLOW OVER THE FAR WEST IN THE LLVLS WILL TRY TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THIS LLVL
MOISTURE AND WEAK LK BREEZE CONV MAY BE THE BEST SHOT FOR SEEING
SHOWERS TODAY. HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION SEEM TO
STRUGGLE WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WILL
CAP AT ISOLATED LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT. AS FOR THUNDER...MODELS SHOWING
MLCAPE VALUES OF 200-400 J/KG PEAKING AROUND IRON COUNTY. THERE WERE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER WRN UPPER MI YEST...BUT WITH A LITTLE
LESS INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED FARTHER SW...WILL LEAVE THUNDER MENTION
OUT.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND USED THOSE AS
A STARTING POINT. MIXING TO H800-775 OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AWAY FROM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
500MB CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE
OMEGA BLOCK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY...WHEN A PACIFIC TROUGH SWINGS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.
ON TUESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...FINALLY REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN
THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST.
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LINGERING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. 850-500MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS
PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THINKING ANY SIGNIFICANT UL SUPPORT FROM
THE TROUGH ALOFT SEEMS TO BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION. AS FOR MOISTURE...THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB LOW MOVING INTO MANITOBA WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY...WITH
PWATS AS MUCH AS 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES. WITH SURFACE HIGH...LAKE BREEZES ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR COULD END UP KICKING OFF A COUPLE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED
CAPE SEEMS TO ONLY BE AS MUCH AS 300 J/KG...HOWEVER MLCAPE IS MORE
ON THE ORDER OF 500-600 J/KG. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AND THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES FOR THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY MORE INTERESTING...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MANITOBA SLIDING JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ALOFT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS AS TO THE PATTERN. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN JUST A SMIDGE FASTER THAN THE
GFS...AND IS A LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS MODEST...AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AS THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS MLCAPE
VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 600-1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR AND A
THINNER SHAPE TO THE SOUNDING PROFILE/SKINNY CAPE/ EXPECT HEAVY RAIN
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IF ANY FROM FRIDAYS STORMS.
SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AS PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL EDGE ITS
WAY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUMP
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING EASTERN MANITOBA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING ON SATURDAY COULD KNOCK OFF A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH SFC CAPE AROUND 800 J/KG
AND MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY WITH LINGERING UL SUPPORT
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND PWATS STILL 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
AS 850 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 18-20C RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT NEAR 90F INLAND.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE MODELS
BEGIN TO REALLY DISAGREE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE 500MB LOW/SURFACE LOWS. THIS WILL BRING DOWN CONFIDENCE IN
TERMS OF SPECIFICS ON PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
GFS/GEM HAVE A MORE COMPACT SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BRINGING A
MORE DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE GEM/GFS SEEM TO WANT TO BRING THE FRONT IN
A LITTLE BIT EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. CANNOT JUSTIFY GOING ABOVE
CHANCE POPS FOR THESE TIME FRAMES...LARGELY DUE TO THE VAST
UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATER SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST AND
CENTRAL AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVERHEAD...WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE
APPRECIABLE AND COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...GIVEN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TUESDAY WE DEAL WITH THE 500MB LOW PASSING FROM MANITOBA AND TOWARDS
JAMES BAY. WITH LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AS THE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT THERE
COULD BE SOME REMAINING SHOWERS EARLY ON...HOWEVER EXPECT THESE TO
END AS THE LOW SLOWLY HEADS NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE
AGAIN...THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS HANDLING OF THIS LOW
GIVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS DAY OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
VERY QUIET MARINE PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THU NIGHT. A
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS LK SUPERIOR ON
FRI AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE S...BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
WINDS BELOW 20 KTS. LOOK FOR A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE TO DOMINATE ON
SAT. A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE WILL
DEVELOP ON SUN UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HI
RETREATING TO THE E AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MCB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA AND RDG IN THE PLAINS.
UPR MI IS LOCATED ON THE CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS WITHIN THE NNW
FLOW...WITH ACCOMPANYING N-S ORIENTED H85 TROF STRETCHING FM NW
ONTARIO ACRS THE WRN CWA INTO WI BTWN ACYC OVER NW MN AND ANOTHER IN
ONTARIO JUST NE OF LK SUP. SINCE THIS TROF IS ALSO UNDER AN AXIS OF
HIER MID LVL MSTR/STEEPER LAPSE RATES...THERE HAD BEEN A FEW -SHRA
INTO THIS MRNG UNDER AREA OF PERSISTENT H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC BEST
HIGHLIGHTED BY RECENT ECMWF RUNS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MORE SCT
-SHRA HAVE DVLPD OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE. MORE NMRS CU ARE ALSO PRESENT OVER
THE E WHERE A BAND OF MID CLD DRIFTED WWD INTO THAT AREA FM ONTARIO.
BUT RATHER STABLE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB SO FAR E OF UPR
JET AXIS WL LIKELY INHIBIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY SHRA THAT
MIGHT DVLP IN THIS AREA BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT ANY -SHRA THAT DVLP
THIS AFTN TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVNG AS BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HINTS UPR JET AXIS WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE W AND RESULT IN WEAKENING
H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/INCRSG UPR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LK SUP
CLOSER TO MORE WELL DEFINED SHRTWV STRADDLING THE NW ONTARIO/MN
BORDER. WITH SFC HI PRES/LGT WINDS OVER UPR MI TNGT...EXPECT MIN
TEMPS TO FALL AT LEAST TO OR A FEW DEGREES BLO LO TEMPS THE READINGS
THIS MRNG AS PWAT IS FCST TO BE A BIT LOWER AT 6/12Z THAN THIS MRNG.
SINCE SOME FOG DID FORM THIS MRNG WHERE RA HAD FALLEN YDAY AFTN...
OPTED TO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE
THERE IS A BETTER CHC OF SOME -SHRA THIS AFTN AND CONDITIONS FOR
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT.
WED...12Z GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING TRACK OF
SHRTWV NOW IN NW ONTARIO ARPCHG NRN MN. THE NAM INDICATES THIS
DISTURBANCE/ACCOMPANYING H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC WL TRACK A BIT FARTHER
TO THE E THAN THE GFS/CNDN...WHICH SHOW FOCUS OF FORCING HOLDING
MAINLY IN NW WI/MN. GIVEN THE UPR BLOCK OVER SE CANADA AND SHRTWVS
NOTED ON WV IMAGERY SHIFTING WWD THRU QUEBEC...FEEL THE FARTHER W
GFS/CNDN ARE PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK. IN FACT...THE CNDN MODEL
HINTS SOME -SHRA MIGHT IMPACT THE FAR E ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES NOW IN QUEBEC. SO TENDED TO RESTRICT POPS FOR
INSTABILITY AFTN -SHRA ON WED TO THE FAR W AND THE E...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE CNTRL UNDER ACYC AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
UPPER MI WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIRLY BENIGN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. WITH LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUING...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO BE PREDOMINANT IN THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DIURNAL CONVECTION DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. BEST FORCING REMAINS IN THE INTERIOR WEST OF
UPPER MI...SO IF ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING THIS IDEA AS WELL. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THESE SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY SET UP
IF THEY DO HAPPEN...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES. SUPPORT
PREVIOUS FORECASTS DECISION TO LEAVE OUT MENTION TSRA DUE TO LOW CAPE
VALUES /LESS THAN 300 J/KG/ AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES /5 TO 6 C/KM/.
LOOKING AT TOTAL TOTALS...STRONG STABLE LAYER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS
WELL AS UPPER MI WILL SUPPRESS NEEDED LIFT FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN UPPER MI
FRIDAY...AND TRAVERSING THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND
INCOMING WAA /AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/ WILL CAUSE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH
UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS FOR TIMING OF THIS PRECIP WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE GFS AND GEM BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIP WILL NOT ENTER WESTERN UPPER MI UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT QVECTOR CONV AND WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
COULD MEAN THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA.
AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AND PICK UP SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON /BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
SUSTAINED/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER AIR TO PULL INTO UPPER
MI...WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 15C ON SATURDAY...AND 20+C ON
SUNDAY.
AFTER THE EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA MOVING SE/
COULD ALLOW FOR LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH
UNCERTAIN ON THE EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR PLACEMENT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCES. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD. A LITTLE BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY MAY YIELD ISOLD CONVECTION
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN...BUT AT THIS POINT...THE
POTENTIAL OF PCPN ALONG THE BOUNDARIES NEAR KIWD/KSAW IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
VERY QUIET MARINE PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THU NIGHT. A QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS LK SUPERIOR ON FRI...BRINGING
A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 20 KTS OVER AT LEAST THE EAST HALF. LOOK FOR
A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE TO DOMINATE ON SAT. A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 20
KTS WILL DEVELOP ON SUN UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS HI RETREATING TO THE E AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF BELOW...
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AND CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONTINENT... WITH A PROGRESSIVELY NARROWING SHARP RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA... BRACKETED BY A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONTINENT AND A SECOND UPPER LOW PUSHING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GENERAL THEME OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO BE DISSOLVE TO SOME
EXTENT AS IT BROADENS AND PUSHES EAST WHILE DISPLACING THE EASTERN
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL WORK THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST DURING THAT TIME... AND EVENTUALLY EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY MONDAY... BRINGING OUR CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL.. THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO
RELAX AND BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE COURSE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE SPEED WITH WHICH IS DOES SO IS UNCERTAIN
GIVEN A FAIR DEGREE OF DIFFERENCE IN THE GFS... ECMWF... AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS HOLDING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER LOW
IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS MUCH LONGER THAN THE
ECMWF... WHICH RIDES IT NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY FAIRLY QUICKLY.
FOR NOW... WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST... WHICH MEANS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER
PERIODS BEYOND MONDAY IS FAIRLY LOW. TEND TO PREFER THE SOMEWHAT
FASTER FRONTAL ARRIVAL ADVERTISED BY THE GFS... NAM... AND SREF ON
SUNDAY IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF GIVEN THE STRONG JET CURRENTLY
PUSHING ONSHORE OUT WEST AND THE SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH
TO OUR EAST WHICH IS ALREADY STARTING TO APPEAR.
FOR TONIGHT... MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN CWFA... WITH THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUING TO
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SHIFT
NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT... BUT WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME ACTIVITY BEFORE THAT OCCURS WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG REMAINING IN PLACE AND SOME HIGHER RH VALUES NEAR THE
ELEVATED LFC FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN NEAR
THAT AREA OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... SO KEPT
SOME POPS IN FOR THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... BY SATURDAY
WE SHOULD SEE THE WARM SECTOR REALLY WORK INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA... WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER...
WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S THROUGH THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GETTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED EAST BY THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE EVOLUTION AND
EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION... WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM...
GFS... AND ECMWF. HOWEVER... ALL SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE A FAIR
DEGREE TO OUR NORTHWEST... MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING... WITH ITS ATTENDANCE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION
STANDPOINT... THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE TO OUR NORTH... BUT GIVEN TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WE SHOULD HAVE AMPLE MLCAPE IN PLACE
WITH VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG... AS WELL AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS WE WORK INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIMITED HOWEVER... GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND WARM FRONT SO FAR TO OUR NORTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST... AT THIS
POINT... THAT OUR MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE DETAILS
SHOULD CERTAINLY COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY MORNING... WITH PERHAPS SOME SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
COLD POOL PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE DEGREE TO WHICH
THAT OCCURS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON WHETHER REALITY WINDS UP MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS OR ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS... WHICH IS SLOWER
TO KICK THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST... WOULD CERTAINLY SUGGEST
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS WELL OUT OF THE AREA AT THAT POINT... AND
WOULD HAVE COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER FOR US. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...
DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT RATHER
THAN INCLUDE A CHANCE MENTION FOR SOMETHING ON DAY SIX. DID
INCLUDE A MENTION FROM LATER WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY BY
THURSDAY... AS THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS THAT WE WOULD START TO
SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION BY THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF DISCUSSION/
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
DURING THE PERIOD. ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
MOVE CLOSE TO THE TWIN METRO AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. TSRA CHANCES EXPECTED TO WADE DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WEATHER CONDITONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. CONDITONS COULD LOWER BRIEFLY BELOW 3 MILES IN HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
KMSP...DONT HAVE A GOOD FEEL OR HANDLE ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MOST OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY IF IT OCCURS JUST STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN
CITIES. NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS OR PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1042 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.UPDATE...PUSHED BACK SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST CWA AS THESE CELLS
ARE TAKING THEIR TIME MAKING THEIR WAY EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY MID-MORNING
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION COULD MAKE ITS WAY EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD DIE OUT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHETHER
OR NOT MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL REALIZE ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL WEATHER
SITUATION TONIGHT/TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK A LOT LIKE THE
PAST 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BEING A BIT WINDIER.
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD 1020MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO/IL BORDER AREA...WHILE OFF TO THE WEST A 1006MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND NEAR THE WY/SD
BORDER. IN BETWEEN...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT
MIXING INTO THE 800-750MB LEVEL HAS PROMOTED A BREEZY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH IN WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE GENERALLY LIVED UP TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS COULD FALL A HAIR SHORT OF TARGET VALUES GIVEN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD HIGH CIRRUS COVER. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT WITH
AN EMBEDDED LOW MEANDERING NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER. UPSTREAM...A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
500MB LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...A WELL-
DEFINED LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM EASTERN WY TO
CENTRAL MT IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST REGIONALLY...WITH THIS
WAVE ALREADY KICKING OFF SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS IN THE WY/SD/NE
BORDER AREA.
FOR THE 00Z-12Z NIGHT PERIOD...MADE ONLY ONE CHANGE OF NOTE TO
POPS/WEATHER. INSTEAD OF HAVING SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE 6-HOUR BLOCK FROM 00Z-06Z AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD...OPTED TO SHIFT THIS FORWARD BY 3 HOURS...INSTEAD
HIGHLIGHTING THE 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN ONLY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE
CWA...OR GENERALLY WEST OF A GREELEY-BEAVER CITY LINE. AND ONLY
KEPT THESE CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT AT THAT...AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TARGET THE DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST NEB.
LEANING ON HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...HRRR AND
12Z 4KM WRF-NMM...EXPECTATION IS THAT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FIRING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEB...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS
EAST TOWARD THE CWA. OPTED TO PULL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING OUT
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH IS LINE WITH SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK...BUT DEFINITELY MADE SURE TO KEEP A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR 50 MPH WINDS/PENNY SIZE HAIL IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES
MANAGE TO GET INTO THE CWA. THAT IS OF COURSE NO GUARANTEE THAT IT
WILL GET IN...AND THUS ONLY THE 20 POPS...AS THE HRRR AND ALSO
THE 18Z NAM/12Z GFS JUST BARELY BRING QPF INTO THE EDGE OF THE CWA
BEFORE REALLY FADING IT OUT. JUST DON/T SEE MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT UNLESS FOR SOME REASON A MAJOR EASTWARD-SURGING COLD POOL
GETS GOING...AS BY THE TIME CONVECTION SHOULD GET INTO THE CWA
ANTICIPATE MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO ONLY BE AROUND
500 J/KG...WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 20KT OR LESS. TURNING
TO OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
LOWER LOW TEMPS BY A SOLID 4-5 DEGREES BASED ON TRENDS FROM PAST
FEW NIGHTS...NOW BRINGING MOST OF THE CWA DOWN INTO THE 58-60
RANGE. DESPITE SOUTHERLY BREEZES REMAINING A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...JUST DON/T SEE HOW TEMPS CAN HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S ALL
NIGHT WITHOUT HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
FOR THE FRIDAY DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE AS IT ALREADY WAS...AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENS A BIT AND
BECOMES QUASI ZONAL...AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WELL UP INTO
CANADA...AND THE PARENT UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT DEEPER INTO THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. DESPITE THE DRY FORECAST...WOULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE SHOWER AFFECT A SMALL PORTION
OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING WITH SOME HINT OF 700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AROUND...BUT JUST CANNOT JUSTIFY INSERTING MORE THAN
SILENT VERY LOW POPS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMP-WISE...MADE
ALMOST NO CHANGE WHATSOEVER TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...WITH
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE 87-91 RANGE...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND WITH MIXING ADVERTISED TO
AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL PER NAM SOUNDINGS. IT WILL BE A BIT
WINDIER AS WELL THANKS TO HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF
THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA REALIZING
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30
TO POSSIBLY 35 MPH. ALONG THESE LINES...AND BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
TODAY...LOWERED DEWPOINTS QUITE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
ORDER OF 6-8 DEGREES...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
MIX ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING/MIXING HOURS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING FRIDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD RIDGING...WHILE A TROUGH SITS OVER THE EAST
COAST AND A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC
NW COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL IN PLACE...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST/SERN CONUS...AND LOW PRESSURE
SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEN THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE RIDGE AXIS GETS PUSHED EAST BY THE
PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THINGS STAYING CAPPED OFF WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE
13-16C RANGE. DID INCREASE WINDS A TOUCH ON SATURDAY INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE INCREASE AS SFC LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF NEB/NW KS AREA. AS FAR AS HIGHS GO...HAD TRENDED THEM
UP YESTERDAY...AND WILL KEEP THEM FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH 90S EXPECTED
CWA-WIDE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE MODELS AS WE GET INTO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WHILE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A QUICKER SOLUTION...THERE IS NOT COMPLETE AGREEMENT. AT 12Z
SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE
CENTRAL MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING S/SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AS FAR AS THE LOCATION OF THE
SFC FRONT GOES...BASICALLY RANGES FROM A QUICKER NAM/SREF WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING ROUGHLY A THIRD OF THE WAY IN...TO THE ECMWF WHICH
STILL HAS IT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO WRN KS. THROUGH THE DAY THAT
STORY REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...THE NAM/SREF/GFS ARE ON THE
QUICKER SIDE...SHOWING THE FRONT OUTSIDE THE E/SE CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 00Z MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS A TOUCH BEHIND. THOUGH
CONSIDERED INSERT A SLIGHT POP ACROSS THE FAR EAST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DIDNT WANT TO FLIP FLOP THE FORECAST...AND WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW TO SEE IF THE EC SPEEDS UP...OR THE OTHERS SLOW DOWN. INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE FASTER TREND IN THE
MODELS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...BASICALLY TIGHTENED UP THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. LEFT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND CONSIDERED TAKING PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT COMPLETELY
ACROSS THE NW...BUT WANT TO WAIT AND MAKE SURE THIS TREND STICKS.
CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...INSTABILITY NOT AN
ISSUE...HAVE BETTER FORCING WITH THE FRONT/WAVE...AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS BETTER BUT NOT GREAT. WITH THE
INCREASED CHANCE OF A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
BECOME MORE TRICKY. DID TREND BACK DUE TO THE QUICKER TIMING...WITH
MID 80S IN THE NW TO NEAR 90 IN THE SE...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY
ADDITIONAL TIMING CHANGES WOULD AFFECT THOSE FORECAST HIGHS.
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HINT AT THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE ACTIVITY
STARTING IN THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT WITHOUT BETTER AGREEMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT. A REINFORCING FRONT/SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
BUT DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 40S/LOW 50S BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS AS WE GET INTO WED/THURS...AND
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES TO CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION..AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS POSSIBLY DRIFTING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WANT TO SEE
BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING POPS AT THIS POINT. NOT EXPECTING
BIG CHANGES IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
646 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY MID-MORNING
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION COULD MAKE ITS WAY EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD DIE OUT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHETHER
OR NOT MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL REALIZE ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL WEATHER
SITUATION TONIGHT/TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK A LOT LIKE THE
PAST 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BEING A BIT WINDIER.
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD 1020MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO/IL BORDER AREA...WHILE OFF TO THE WEST A 1006MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND NEAR THE WY/SD
BORDER. IN BETWEEN...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT
MIXING INTO THE 800-750MB LEVEL HAS PROMOTED A BREEZY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH IN WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE GENERALLY LIVED UP TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS COULD FALL A HAIR SHORT OF TARGET VALUES GIVEN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD HIGH CIRRUS COVER. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT WITH
AN EMBEDDED LOW MEANDERING NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER. UPSTREAM...A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
500MB LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...A WELL-
DEFINED LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM EASTERN WY TO
CENTRAL MT IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST REGIONALLY...WITH THIS
WAVE ALREADY KICKING OFF SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS IN THE WY/SD/NE
BORDER AREA.
FOR THE 00Z-12Z NIGHT PERIOD...MADE ONLY ONE CHANGE OF NOTE TO
POPS/WEATHER. INSTEAD OF HAVING SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE 6-HOUR BLOCK FROM 00Z-06Z AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD...OPTED TO SHIFT THIS FORWARD BY 3 HOURS...INSTEAD
HIGHLIGHTING THE 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN ONLY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE
CWA...OR GENERALLY WEST OF A GREELEY-BEAVER CITY LINE. AND ONLY
KEPT THESE CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT AT THAT...AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TARGET THE DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST NEB.
LEANING ON HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...HRRR AND
12Z 4KM WRF-NMM...EXPECTATION IS THAT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FIRING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEB...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS
EAST TOWARD THE CWA. OPTED TO PULL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING OUT
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH IS LINE WITH SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK...BUT DEFINITELY MADE SURE TO KEEP A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR 50 MPH WINDS/PENNY SIZE HAIL IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES
MANAGE TO GET INTO THE CWA. THAT IS OF COURSE NO GUARANTEE THAT IT
WILL GET IN...AND THUS ONLY THE 20 POPS...AS THE HRRR AND ALSO
THE 18Z NAM/12Z GFS JUST BARELY BRING QPF INTO THE EDGE OF THE CWA
BEFORE REALLY FADING IT OUT. JUST DON/T SEE MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT UNLESS FOR SOME REASON A MAJOR EASTWARD-SURGING COLD POOL
GETS GOING...AS BY THE TIME CONVECTION SHOULD GET INTO THE CWA
ANTICIPATE MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO ONLY BE AROUND
500 J/KG...WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 20KT OR LESS. TURNING
TO OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
LOWER LOW TEMPS BY A SOLID 4-5 DEGREES BASED ON TRENDS FROM PAST
FEW NIGHTS...NOW BRINGING MOST OF THE CWA DOWN INTO THE 58-60
RANGE. DESPITE SOUTHERLY BREEZES REMAINING A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...JUST DON/T SEE HOW TEMPS CAN HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S ALL
NIGHT WITHOUT HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
FOR THE FRIDAY DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE AS IT ALREADY WAS...AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENS A BIT AND
BECOMES QUASI ZONAL...AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WELL UP INTO
CANADA...AND THE PARENT UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT DEEPER INTO THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. DESPITE THE DRY FORECAST...WOULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE SHOWER AFFECT A SMALL PORTION
OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING WITH SOME HINT OF 700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AROUND...BUT JUST CANNOT JUSTIFY INSERTING MORE THAN
SILENT VERY LOW POPS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMP-WISE...MADE
ALMOST NO CHANGE WHATSOEVER TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...WITH
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE 87-91 RANGE...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND WITH MIXING ADVERTISED TO
AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL PER NAM SOUNDINGS. IT WILL BE A BIT
WINDIER AS WELL THANKS TO HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF
THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA REALIZING
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30
TO POSSIBLY 35 MPH. ALONG THESE LINES...AND BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
TODAY...LOWERED DEWPOINTS QUITE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
ORDER OF 6-8 DEGREES...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
MIX ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING/MIXING HOURS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING FRIDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD RIDGING...WHILE A TROUGH SITS OVER THE EAST
COAST AND A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC
NW COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL IN PLACE...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST/SERN CONUS...AND LOW PRESSURE
SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEN THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE RIDGE AXIS GETS PUSHED EAST BY THE
PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THINGS STAYING CAPPED OFF WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE
13-16C RANGE. DID INCREASE WINDS A TOUCH ON SATURDAY INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE INCREASE AS SFC LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF NEB/NW KS AREA. AS FAR AS HIGHS GO...HAD TRENDED THEM
UP YESTERDAY...AND WILL KEEP THEM FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH 90S EXPECTED
CWA-WIDE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE MODELS AS WE GET INTO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WHILE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A QUICKER SOLUTION...THERE IS NOT COMPLETE AGREEMENT. AT 12Z
SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE
CENTRAL MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING S/SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AS FAR AS THE LOCATION OF THE
SFC FRONT GOES...BASICALLY RANGES FROM A QUICKER NAM/SREF WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING ROUGHLY A THIRD OF THE WAY IN...TO THE ECMWF WHICH
STILL HAS IT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO WRN KS. THROUGH THE DAY THAT
STORY REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...THE NAM/SREF/GFS ARE ON THE
QUICKER SIDE...SHOWING THE FRONT OUTSIDE THE E/SE CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 00Z MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS A TOUCH BEHIND. THOUGH
CONSIDERED INSERT A SLIGHT POP ACROSS THE FAR EAST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DIDNT WANT TO FLIP FLOP THE FORECAST...AND WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW TO SEE IF THE EC SPEEDS UP...OR THE OTHERS SLOW DOWN. INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE FASTER TREND IN THE
MODELS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...BASICALLY TIGHTENED UP THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. LEFT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND CONSIDERED TAKING PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT COMPLETELY
ACROSS THE NW...BUT WANT TO WAIT AND MAKE SURE THIS TREND STICKS.
CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...INSTABILITY NOT AN
ISSUE...HAVE BETTER FORCING WITH THE FRONT/WAVE...AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS BETTER BUT NOT GREAT. WITH THE
INCREASED CHANCE OF A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
BECOME MORE TRICKY. DID TREND BACK DUE TO THE QUICKER TIMING...WITH
MID 80S IN THE NW TO NEAR 90 IN THE SE...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY
ADDITIONAL TIMING CHANGES WOULD AFFECT THOSE FORECAST HIGHS.
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HINT AT THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE ACTIVITY
STARTING IN THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT WITHOUT BETTER AGREEMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT. A REINFORCING FRONT/SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
BUT DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 40S/LOW 50S BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS AS WE GET INTO WED/THURS...AND
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES TO CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION..AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS POSSIBLY DRIFTING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WANT TO SEE
BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING POPS AT THIS POINT. NOT EXPECTING
BIG CHANGES IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
DID INCREASE HIGHS SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CURRENT
TRENDS AS TEMPERATURES HAD INCREASED MORE RAPID THAN EXPECTED. AT
17Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM KIEN TO KAIA TO
KIBN. THERE HAS BEEN WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVER SHERIDAN
COUNTY AND JUST TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE
VIS SATELLITE WS SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPING GOING SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT. BACKED OFF ON EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AS CURRENT STORM MOTIONS
ARE ALMOST DUE NORTH AND WON/T SEE MUCH OF A NORTHEAST COMPONENT
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THEN...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST OF THE PANHANDLE. AFTER DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES...BELIEVE ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS THERE
WON/T BE MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP STORMS GOING. IN TERMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...BELIEVE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
COLORADO...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE MINIMAL...ONLY
AROUND 25KTS ACCORDING TO THE RUC AND NAM FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO
DON/T SEE MUCH OUTSIDE AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM LATER TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED CONCERNING AVIATION WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT VERY LITTLE CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KOGA TO KVTN. FOR BOTH KVTN AND KLBF...CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR...WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO MIX.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHICH MAY BE WASHING OUT ALONG THE WY-NEB
BORDER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
SHERIDAN COUNTY. SATELLITE SUGGESTED ACCAS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF WRN NEB. THE FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN NEB THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WITH A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. A SOMEWHAT BLOCKED LARGE SCALE
PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS 48 AS UPPER RIDGING IS
TIGHTLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING/PANHANDLE REGION OF NEBRASKA. MODELS
INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
COMBINE WITH MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST TO CARRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL THE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO ONLY THE PANHANDLE REGION. AGREE WITH THE
ASSESSMENT AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE SUGGEST MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITION THOUGH...BUT LESS
THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR PROFILES. GIVEN NEGATIVE LI/S APPROACHING
-4C AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA...CANNOT RULE OUT A LARGE HAIL
OR SEVERE WIND REPORT...BUT FEEL THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WHICH AGAIN SHOULD LIMIT
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND RELEGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO THERE AS
WELL.
A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED BREAK DOWN. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS SUGGESTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO. ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND BETTER SHEAR TO PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AGAIN LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FROM ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE THE MODELS HAVE THE WAVE PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LESS LIKELY. WILL
CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE POPS EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS TARGET A STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO A
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXTENDED...12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE TO RETURN ON
FRIDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN INTO THE 90S BY SATURDAY...THEN
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRAGS A COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CONTINUED THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST AS
MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AND THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH IN
THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION/UPDATE...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
621 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES, ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING EACH DAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING US SHOWERS SATURDAY BEFORE A
STRETCH OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATED LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...TO DETERMINISTICALLY HONE IN ON AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO RULE OUT LOCATIONS NOT LIKELY TO SEE
ANYTHING. STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO QUITE
OBVIOUS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE LAKE AND SOUTH OF THE
THRUWAY...YET MAINLY SUNNY IN BETWEEN. HRRR MODEL DOING AN
ADMIRABLE JOB PLACING CONVECTION IN AN ENHANCED LINE ALONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE...ABOUT TO SPREAD THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS...AND
HEADING SOUTH WHILE DECREASING IN COVERAGE WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT. SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
EXPECTED. WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND EVEN A BIT OF SMALL HAIL. AT THE
OFFICE WE HAD HAIL JUST A BIT BIGGER THAN THE SIZE OF A PEA AND
MOST RECENTLY UP IN ROME 1/4" HAIL OR THE SIZE OF A PEA FROM
NUMEROUS SPOTTERS. WITH VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS...NOT SURPRISING
WE WILL SEE A BIT OF HAIL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE WITH VERY
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE (INVERTED V SOUNDINGS). I AM NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TO TURN SEVERE WITH NO SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THE STORMS FOR
ANY LENGTH OF TIME. AS THESE STORMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN EXPECT
THE ACTION TO DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT QUITE AS
WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND A BIT
BETTER MIXING OFF THE DECK...DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM UPDATE...
THURSDAY...WE STILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF THE CUT OFF
LOW ACROSS THE MARITIMES SO MUCH LIKE TODAY...SHOWERS AND RUMBLES
OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY ON. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS
ABOUT 1000 FEET HIGHER TOMORROW (6500 FEET VS. 7500 FEET)...BUT
STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
CELLS. AGAIN NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE HOWEVER BUT DEF. WORTH
A MENTION.
FRIDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DRIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT WE WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT A DRY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM I-81 WEST. WITH THAT SAID WE ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE LOW AND THE MODELS STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS EAST...TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST.
SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON PRECIP
FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. ALL THREE
MODELS (EURO/NAM/GFS) SHOW A WAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WITH SCT. SHOWERS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING THE
SLOWEST MODEL BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS NY
STATE. ACROSS PA SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIP
GETS. FOR NOW WILL COVER THIS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD FEATURES A BLDG RDG FROM THE MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE OLD
CLSD LOW AS IT DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE RDGG...STILL SOME
PSBLTY OF AFTN CONV...ESP EARLY IN THE PD AS WEAK WVS SLIDE DOWN
THE ERN SIDE OF THE RDG...AND AGAIN ON TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE AS
A STRONG WV COMES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND KICKS THE RDG TO THE
EAST. IT WILL BE WARM...AS H8 TEMPS APRCH 16C TO 18C WITH SUMMER
TIME HUMIDITY.
GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID FOR THE PD. RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BASED GUID AND THE ECMWF MAKES THIS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE XTNDD
FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LL/S DRYING OUT BUT WITH HTG AND COOL POOL ALOFT...INSTABILITY
SHWRS AND TRWS XPCTD THRU THE AFTN HRS. BELIEVE CVRG WILL BE ISLTD
ENUF SUCH THAT IT WILL NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS...
HWVR...BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS PSBL IF A SHWR HITS THE
SITE. CLRG THIS EVENING WILL BE FLWD BY VLY FOG ONCE AGAIN AS LL
WINDS GO CALM. DOES NOT LOOK AS MOIST AS THE PRVS NGT...SO
WILL ONLY FCST LIFR AT ELM. HTG AFT SUNRISE ON THU WILL RESULT IN
CLRG SKIES. INSTABILITY SHWRS PSBL AGAIN...BUT GNRLY BEYOND THE TAF
PD.
OUTLOOK...
THU AFTN/FRI..MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FROM FOG ESPECIALLY VALLEY TERMINALS.
SAT - MON...MAINLY VFR BUT MVFR POSSIBLE SAT IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1025 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE STARTING
TUESDAY... WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW-MOVING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM THURSDAY...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROUGH STILL HANGING OUT ALONG THE
EAST COAST WITH THE 250MB JET OVER NC AND VA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DPVA PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NC BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
FRIDAY. THE SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH VA ARE BEING DRIVEN BY THIS
DPVA AND LINGERING INSTABILITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THEY WILL MAKE IN INTO CENTRAL NC.
NEVERTHELESS...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDED THE TIME THROUGH 06Z GIVEN
THE FORECASTED TRACK OF VORTICITY MAX AS THE TROUGH BEINGS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE. THE 21Z HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE SHOWERS
MAKING IT TO THE VA/NC BORDER BY 06Z BUT FALLING APART AS IT DOES
SO.
SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 22Z AND THE 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW.AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA... BRINGING A MUCH WARMER
AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKS END AND MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE
SFC RIDGE STILL CENTERED TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR
MOISTURE PROFILE AS TODAY...BUT WARMING BETWEEN H5-H7 WILL CAP
DEVELOPING DAYTIME CU. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS UNDER
THIS RIDGE AND GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 60 AS
THE SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND WITH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST. EXPECT VERY SHALLOW DAYTIME
CU AND VERY WARM TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
ON SUNDAY WE`LL SEE AN ELONGATED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER NE
TX AND LA GRADUALLY DRIFTING NE ALONG THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS OUR
AREA...BUT DRY AND WARM MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PRECLUDE PRECIP. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...SO WE`LL SEE
HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM...
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HEIGHTS
IS NOTED ACROSS TX AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LOW
THAT MARGINALLY CLOSES OFF. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME AND
THE TX/GULF LOW OPENS AND LIFTS NORTH AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. EVENTUALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WHICH REACHES THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY AND THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER FEATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF UPPER LOW AND THE TIMING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON DAYS 6/7 ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DECREASES WED
AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
WEST WHERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT AND GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. WILL CAP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES. BUT WITH PW
VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND AT LEAST SOME
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY HIGHER. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY REDUCING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDINESS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE CONTRACTS FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND WITH HIGHS
NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD... WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY FROM SOME
PRE-DAWN IFR/MVFR (MAYBE EVEN LIFR) VISBYS AT KRWI.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT... WITH LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNSET FRIDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
GENERALLY MVFR/IFR VISBYS AT FOG PRONE KRWI AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY. THUS... HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VISBYS
IN THE 7-11Z TIME FRAME TO SHOW THIS THREAT. ALOFT... A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. A SHOWERS OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FROM
THE TAFS FOR NOW... AS CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURANCES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.
THUS... WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS.
LOOKING AHEAD: RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
INCREASE ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...KC/NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM NOVA SCOTIA
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM WEDNESDAY...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTHERN AL. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
INTO PA/MD/VA FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE CREST
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS FAR SW VA AND NW NC AS OF 14Z
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.
AN AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPED LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NC. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WAS INITIATED IN A REGION OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION LAST EVENING. OVERNIGHT STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPED IN THE 295-300K LAYER IN A REGION OF INCREASING DPVA WHICH
ALLOWED THE RAIN SHIELD TO EXPAND AND TO BECOME BRIEFLY HEAVY IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REACHED AROUND 2 INCHES IN
ROWAN COUNTY WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT IN DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES WITH A MORE
GENERAL 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE TRIAD. THESE AMOUNTS
WERE AROUND 1/3 OF THE RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERDONE WITH BOTH THE
00Z AND 06Z NAM AND GFS WHILE THE 03-09Z RUNS OF THE HRRR PICKED UP
ON THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND LARGELY DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL WEAKEN AS THE SHORT WAVE TOUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL TREND
THE FORECAST FROM NUMEROUS SHOWERS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS...A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW..AND LITTLE LOW/MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHEAR VORTICITY AND
WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES TO GIVE WAY TO SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AND MANUALLY EDITED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES FOR A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. -BLAES
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 1 WHERE THE RELATIVE BEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS PROGGED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY:
H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING SSE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE
FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST...AND THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL BE ROUGHLY THE SAME
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO BE 5-10
METERS HIGHER THAN TODAY IN ASSOC/W HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...THOUGH TEMPS
ALOFT ARE ALSO PROGGED TO WARM BY ~1C. AS A RESULT...DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ROUGHLY THE SAME AS TODAY...
WITH ~250 J/KG MLCAPE DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...
ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING AND TEMPS ALOFT DO
NOT MARGINALLY INCREASE AS EXPECTED...SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES AT 20% AND HAVE OMITTED CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN 5-10
METER 1000-850 MB HEIGHT RISES AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IN THE MID/UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...OR 77-82F.
THURSDAY NIGHT:
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY
MAY NEGATE MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOC/W IT. MODEL GUIDANCE AND
HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...AND ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
GIVEN SLIGHT AIRMASS MODIFICATION...EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F...WARMEST SOUTH. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD OF A HOTTER
AND DRIER WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN AND THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE OF CHOICE... ALTHOUGH
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE MODELS WITH THE OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO NUDGE EASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS FRI-SAT...
THEN MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INCLUDING NC THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. RISING HEIGHTS WILL MEAN RISING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY TO A POSITION OVER NC SUNDAY... THEN JUST OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MINIMAL... EXCEPT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY FRI-SAT WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 80-85... INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 82-88 SATURDAY. IT WILL BE HOT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD REACH 87-92. LOWS SHOULD
BE IN THE 60-65 RANGE FRI... MODERATING TO 65-70 SUN-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ATTM ACROSS THE TRIAD REGION BUT FARTHER
EAST THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THIS MORNINGS RAIN CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST. EXPECT
THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH FLT
CATEGORIES SLOWLY IMPROVING WEST. THIS EVENING WE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL OUR TAF SITES. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHEARED SHORT WAVE MOVING SE ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT TONIGHT FROM THIS WAVE IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCE. ON THE OTHER HAND...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING WITH MOIST LIGHT NE FLOW IN PLACE...THUS LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE.
LOOKING AHEAD:
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...THOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLAES/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...NP/VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM NOVA SCOTIA
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM WEDNESDAY...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTHERN AL. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
INTO PA/MD/VA FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE CREST
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS FAR SW VA AND NW NC AS OF 14Z
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.
AN AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPED LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NC. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WAS INITIATED IN A REGION OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION LAST EVENING. OVERNIGHT STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPED IN THE 295-300K LAYER IN A REGION OF INCREASING DPVA WHICH
ALLOWED THE RAIN SHIELD TO EXPAND AND TO BECOME BRIEFLY HEAVY IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REACHED AROUND 2 INCHES IN
ROWAN COUNTY WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT IN DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES WITH A MORE
GENERAL 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE TRIAD. THESE AMOUNTS
WERE AROUND 1/3 OF THE RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERDONE WITH BOTH THE
00Z AND 06Z NAM AND GFS WHILE THE 03-09Z RUNS OF THE HRRR PICKED UP
ON THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND LARGELY DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL WEAKEN AS THE SHORT WAVE TOUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL TREND
THE FORECAST FROM NUMEROUS SHOWERS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS...A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW..AND LITTLE LOW/MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHEAR VORTICITY AND
WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES TO GIVE WAY TO SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AND MANUALLY EDITED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES FOR A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. -BLAES
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 1 WHERE THE RELATIVE BEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS PROGGED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY:
H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING SSE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE
FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST...AND THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL BE ROUGHLY THE SAME
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO BE 5-10
METERS HIGHER THAN TODAY IN ASSOC/W HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...THOUGH TEMPS
ALOFT ARE ALSO PROGGED TO WARM BY ~1C. AS A RESULT...DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ROUGHLY THE SAME AS TODAY...
WITH ~250 J/KG MLCAPE DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...
ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING AND TEMPS ALOFT DO
NOT MARGINALLY INCREASE AS EXPECTED...SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES AT 20% AND HAVE OMITTED CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN 5-10
METER 1000-850 MB HEIGHT RISES AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IN THE MID/UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...OR 77-82F.
THURSDAY NIGHT:
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY
MAY NEGATE MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOC/W IT. MODEL GUIDANCE AND
HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...AND ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
GIVEN SLIGHT AIRMASS MODIFICATION...EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F...WARMEST SOUTH. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD OF A HOTTER
AND DRIER WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN AND THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE OF CHOICE... ALTHOUGH
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE MODELS WITH THE OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO NUDGE EASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS FRI-SAT...
THEN MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INCLUDING NC THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. RISING HEIGHTS WILL MEAN RISING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY TO A POSITION OVER NC SUNDAY... THEN JUST OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MINIMAL... EXCEPT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY FRI-SAT WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 80-85... INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 82-88 SATURDAY. IT WILL BE HOT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD REACH 87-92. LOWS SHOULD
BE IN THE 60-65 RANGE FRI... MODERATING TO 65-70 SUN-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED QUITE A BIT THE PAST FEW HOURS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PIEDMONT SINCE 07Z...
EXTENDING EAST TO THE TRIANGLE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALREADY
OBSERVED AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED VERY
POORLY THIS MORNING...ALREADY MISSING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HALF INCH
OR MORE OF RAIN FROM HICKORY EAST TO ASHEBORO/SILER CITY. GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN TO PREVAIL AT THE INT/GSO/RDU TERMINALS THROUGH
NOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE FAY/RWI TAF SITES BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN TO EVENTUALLY
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OR SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF CENTRAL NC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR AGAIN BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN USUAL AS MENTIONED
ABOVE.
LOOKING AHEAD:
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...THOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLAES/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
705 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF WILMINGTON. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND FARTHER INLAND WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL DRY OUT ON THURSDAY AND SEASONABLE WARMTH IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT`S ON TRACK.
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW RAIN BLOSSOMING IN SOUTHERN GA/SC AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ACQUIRE A MORE CROSS-FRONTAL COMPONENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. BASED ON RADAR LOOPS AND THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS I`VE
TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT FOR TODAY FROM NEARLY 100 PERCENT IN
GEORGETOWN SC TO ONLY 20 PERCENT IN BENNETTSVILLE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL TURN EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AIDED BY THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK JUST OFF
THE NC COAST.
YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GEORGIA
COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD PUSH EAST AND OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOIST ATLANTIC AIR WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE SURFACE FRONT AND WILL BE
FURTHER LIFTED BY THE FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THIS MORNING SPREADING FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EXTREME
EASTERN NC. OUR FORECAST POPS TODAY RANGE FROM 80-90 PERCENT FROM
KINGSTREE AND GEORGETOWN NORTH THROUGH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTHPORT.
POPS ARE MORE IN THE 50/50 RANGE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH
LESSER POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. UPWARDS OF HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY...WITH A QUARTER INCH
FROM MYRTLE BEACH NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY NC.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER LAND TODAY WITH ABSOLUTELY STABLE
THERMAL PROFILES. RAIN SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY MID-
AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TOPPED OFF BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS OFTEN RESULTS IN A BROKEN DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN THESE TWO
VERTICALLY DISSIMILAR AIRMASSES.
FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW WE`RE EXPECTING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY CRAWL THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. ONCE PRECIP CLEARS OFF THE COAST EXPECT MOST AREAS TO POP
INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS UPPER 70S BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT STILL
POOLING ACROSS MOST OF SE GA AND SC WHILE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS FAR NORTH IT WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO GENERATE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND SO POPS CAPPED
AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE OTHERWISE TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO HIT OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 80. MOISTURE THEN GETS SHUNTED EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY EVENING. EVEN
THOUGH ANOTHER APPRECIABLE VORT MAX WILL STREAK BY EARLY FRIDAY THE
COLUMN WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES.
HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS IT SWINGS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THE LONG TERM WILL BRING
RATHER QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OFF THE COAST. BEING MUCH WEAKER
THAN A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH IT WILL LIKELY LACK THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY OUT OF THE
PLAINS COULD ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AN AREA OF LIFT...COURTESY OF THE JET STREAM...WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WILL RIDE UP THE
COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG WITH THE
JET THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AS
THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY SATURATES THE ENTIRE COLUMN. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...LOWERED SEAS BY ABOUT A FOOT
CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING TREND THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS SHOULD SURGE LATER THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CENTRAL GEORGIA COAST
THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ALONG
THIS FRONT AND MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING IN AREAS WITH AN OPEN EXPOSURE TO NORTHEAST WINDS. A
"SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY AS FRONT
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL LEAVE THE REGION IN A RATHER WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND
THUS VERY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A WEAK HIGH
THOUGH AND RATHER SLOW TO PROGRESS...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS THAT
ONLY VERY SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY QUIET SET OF WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY OFFSHORE BUT IN SO MUCH A
TYPICAL JUNE FASHION WITH A STRONG BERMUDA ANTICYCLONE. THIS WEEKEND
SETUP WILL FIND A WEAKER HIGH CLOSER TO THE COAST KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS CAPPED AT ABOUT 10 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE SW. SMALL WIND WAVES
AND NEGLIGIBLE SWELL ENERGY YIELDING JUST 2 FT PREDOMINANT SEA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WE`RE SEVERAL DAYS PAST THIS
MONTH`S FULL MOON ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL RANGES REMAIN RATHER LARGE.
ONSHORE WINDS ARE HELPING TO BUILD A SMALL TIDAL SURGE AS WELL. THE
LARGEST FACTOR HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE AN UNRESOLVED POSITIVE WATER
LEVEL ANOMALY THAT IS SHOWING UP ALL ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MAINE
TO FLORIDA. THIS FACTOR WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CREATING
YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
SOME DATA FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...
ASTRONOMICAL SURGE + FORECAST WATER FLOOD
LOCATION TIDE ANOMALY LEVEL STAGE
CAPE FEAR RIVER-WILM 5.14 FT +1.00 6.14 FT 5.50 FT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 5.18 FT +1.10 6.28 FT 6.00 FT
MYRTLE BEACH 6.50 FT +0.80 7.60 FT 7.50 FT
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK/MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
631 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF WILMINGTON. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND FARTHER INLAND WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL DRY OUT ON THURSDAY AND SEASONABLE WARMTH IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT`S ON TRACK.
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW RAIN BLOSSOMING IN SOUTHERN GA/SC AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ACQUIRE A MORE CROSS-FRONTAL COMPONENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. BASED ON RADAR LOOPS AND THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS I`VE
TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT FOR TODAY FROM NEARLY 100 PERCENT IN
GEORGETOWN SC TO ONLY 20 PERCENT IN BENNETTSVILLE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL TURN EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AIDED BY THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK JUST OFF
THE NC COAST.
YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GEORGIA
COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD PUSH EAST AND OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOIST ATLANTIC AIR WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE SURFACE FRONT AND WILL BE
FURTHER LIFTED BY THE FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THIS MORNING SPREADING FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EXTREME
EASTERN NC. OUR FORECAST POPS TODAY RANGE FROM 80-90 PERCENT FROM
KINGSTREE AND GEORGETOWN NORTH THROUGH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTHPORT.
POPS ARE MORE IN THE 50/50 RANGE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH
LESSER POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. UPWARDS OF HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY...WITH A QUARTER INCH
FROM MYRTLE BEACH NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY NC.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER LAND TODAY WITH ABSOLUTELY STABLE
THERMAL PROFILES. RAIN SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY MID-
AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TOPPED OFF BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS OFTEN RESULTS IN A BROKEN DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN THESE TWO
VERTICALLY DISSIMILAR AIRMASSES.
FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW WE`RE EXPECTING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY CRAWL THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. ONCE PRECIP CLEARS OFF THE COAST EXPECT MOST AREAS TO POP
INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS UPPER 70S BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT STILL
POOLING ACROSS MOST OF SE GA AND SC WHILE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS FAR NORTH IT WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO GENERATE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND SO POPS CAPPED
AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE OTHERWISE TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO HIT OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 80. MOISTURE THEN GETS SHUNTED EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY EVENING. EVEN
THOUGH ANOTHER APPRECIABLE VORT MAX WILL STREAK BY EARLY FRIDAY THE
COLUMN WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES.
HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS IT SWINGS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THE LONG TERM WILL BRING
RATHER QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OFF THE COAST. BEING MUCH WEAKER
THAN A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH IT WILL LIKELY LACK THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY OUT OF THE
PLAINS COULD ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR FLO. THIS BOUNDARY WAS
DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES. EXPECT MORE OF A
STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN TO SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE CRE/MYR TERMINALS
STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THERE IS ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF
CEILING/VISIBILITY FORECAST. IN GENERAL...AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND FALLS
INTO THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR OCCURRING 11-15Z.
BY NOON LOCAL TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE.
VFR SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
NORTHEAST TO EAST SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...LOWERED SEAS BY ABOUT A FOOT
CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING TREND THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS SHOULD SURGE LATER THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CENTRAL GEORGIA COAST
THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ALONG
THIS FRONT AND MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING IN AREAS WITH AN OPEN EXPOSURE TO NORTHEAST WINDS. A
"SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY AS FRONT
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL LEAVE THE REGION IN A RATHER WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND
THUS VERY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A WEAK HIGH
THOUGH AND RATHER SLOW TO PROGRESS...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS THAT
ONLY VERY SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY QUIET SET OF WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY OFFSHORE BUT IN SO MUCH A
TYPICAL JUNE FASHION WITH A STRONG BERMUDA ANTICYCLONE. THIS WEEKEND
SETUP WILL FIND A WEAKER HIGH CLOSER TO THE COAST KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS CAPPED AT ABOUT 10 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE SW. SMALL WIND WAVES
AND NEGLIGIBLE SWELL ENERGY YIELDING JUST 2 FT PREDOMINANT SEA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WE`RE SEVERAL DAYS PAST THIS
MONTH`S FULL MOON ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL RANGES REMAIN RATHER LARGE.
ONSHORE WINDS ARE HELPING TO BUILD A SMALL TIDAL SURGE AS WELL. THE
LARGEST FACTOR HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE AN UNRESOLVED POSITIVE WATER
LEVEL ANOMALY THAT IS SHOWING UP ALL ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MAINE
TO FLORIDA. THIS FACTOR WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CREATING
YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
SOME DATA FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...
ASTRONOMICAL SURGE + FORECAST WATER FLOOD
LOCATION TIDE ANOMALY LEVEL STAGE
CAPE FEAR RIVER-WILM 5.14 FT +1.00 6.14 FT 5.50 FT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 5.18 FT +1.10 6.28 FT 6.00 FT
MYRTLE BEACH 6.50 FT +0.80 7.60 FT 7.50 FT
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK/MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
322 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND LIFTING NORTH WITH TIME.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS AREA WHERE ANOTHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A NARROW HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN
AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL H85 SOUTHERLY JET OF 50KT TO 55KT
CONTINUES AIDING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ROUGHLY 7.5C/KM SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS AREA...MOVING IT NORTH
AND EXPANDING IT EASTWARD. OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE REMAINS
LOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
HAIL CAPE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE REMAIN DECENTLY HIGH.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO LATER TODAY. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY CREATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH 35KT
TO 40KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.
K-INDICES OF 35 TO 40 ALONG WITH PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES MAY
YIELD HEAVY RAIN AS WELL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BOTH THURSDAY EVENING
LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE
THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE
INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL GENERATE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
GENERATING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE THETA-E GRADIENT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PRIMARILY ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO
KEEP A LID ON AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO BREAK THE CAP SATURDAY EVENING WITH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
EVENT POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DETAILS OF THE AREAL
EXTENT AND TIMING ARE SKETCHY AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE FORECASTED WITH CHANCES OF
MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY AREAWIDE MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AERODROMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS PRECEDING THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME WIND SHEAR INTO FOCUS BETWEEN 10Z-15Z WEDNESDAY
AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM/AVIATION....TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1140 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PERSISTENT STRONG
H85 JET OF 50KT OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NEAR THE SOUTH/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
OVERNIGHT. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE WARM
FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35KT IN THE SOUTHWEST COULD SUPPORT
SOME STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR HAS POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. BASED ON
CURRENT BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADARS...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHWEST BY 06Z LOOKS ON
TRACK. WILL CHANGE UNCERTAINTY WORDING TO AREAL COVERAGE WITH
CURRENT ACTIVITY HEADING NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
AERODROMES THROUGH 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS TO
AVIATION INCLUDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WINDS PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME WIND SHEAR
INTO FOCUS BETWEEN 10Z/5 AM CDT AND 15Z/10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
734 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL CONTROL
THE REGIONS WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A CHANCE RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCT SHRA HAS POPPED UP AS EXPECTED IN NW OH AND OVER INTO ERN
OH...BRUSHING THE NRN AND ERN COUNTIES OF THE FA. LATEST HRRR RUN
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THIS
RUN ALLOWS THE CONVECTION TO BUBBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
DYING DOWN BY 00Z. FOLLOWED THIS SCENARIO...KEEPING 20 POPS IN THE
APPROXIMATELY THE NE 1/2 OF THE FA UNTIL 6PM...THEN RAMPED DOWN
QUICKLY TO 0 POP.
EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AS THEY DID
LAST EVENING. THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE VERIFIED THE BEST LAST
NIGHT...SO LEANED TOWARDS IT AGAIN FOR TONIGHTS LOWS. GENERALLY
WENT BETWEEN 50 AND 55.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. FLOW AT H5 STILL REMAINS NWLY...BUT IT WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY AS RIDGING WORKS E THROUGH THE DEEP S.
EXPECT A FEW CU TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT IT
HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
IT WILL STILL WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY...PUSHING INTO THE LOWER
80S. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 50S FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOCUS OF FCST REMAINS TIMING OF RAIN FOR MONDAY AND HOW WARM TEMPS
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY. QUESTION OF 90 DEGREE MARK FOR
SUNDAY. WILL BE NEAR OR AT THE MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE NORMAL
BUT CERTAINLY NOT UNCOMMON FOR JUNE.
BIG QUESTION IS SURGE OF MOISTURE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN TO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTH. AGAIN
AS IN MOST CASES TIMING IS PROBLEMATIC BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS.
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WILL GO WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT COULD BE
RAISED DEPENDING MODEL OUTCOME CLOSER TO FCST PERIOD. MODELS ARE
MORE IN AGREEMENT OF PUSHING MOISTURE EAST WITH COLD FRONT BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS GIVES STRONG INDICATION FOR GOING DRY
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMP FCST TRICKY FOR MONDAY DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. WILL SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER AND COOLER
SCENARIOS FOR NOW. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND PERHAPS NOT COOL ENOUGH
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. LEFT TAFS SITES DRY DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE LAST
TWO NIGHTS WENT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KLUK DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT KLUK WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 12Z. THE OTHER AREA TAF SITES WILL
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW CU WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
530 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO SELF DESTRUCT
CUMULUS WITH THE MORNING SFC HEATING. EXPANDING CU FIELD DUE TO
POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ IS SPREADING
SWD FM THE LWR LKS...STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
6.5-7C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE ON THE SAME PAGE SHOWING CVRG
OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INCREASING INTO THE MID
AFTN HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME INTERACTION WITH A LAKE BREEZE
MAY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP MID- LVL LAPSE RATES MAY
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S OVER THE
LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETTING REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS
FOR THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING
AFTER SUNSET. MAXES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WED AFTN
READINGS AND RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500MB LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY WITH THE MEAN TROF
POSITION MOVING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST LATE THURSDAY...EARLY FRIDAY
WITH JUST A SCHC OF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES.
LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES EASTWARD TREK AS THE PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI- ZONAL ORIENTATION INTO SAT.
AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHS COULD BRING A
WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
EARLY SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS MOVE THIS PERTURBATION FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVERLAYING THE AREA AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MASON DIXON BY 06Z SUN. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD HAVE INCREASED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE...PRESENCE OF DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUNDAY...AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. CURRENTLY THE
ONLY FOR SURE DRY DAYS SEEM TO BE FRIDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH GIVEN
VARIABILITY OF MESOSCALE FEATURES THROUGH SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AT
LONGER RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO
HEDGE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING A FEW DEGS
WARMER EACH DAY. THE CURRENT RUNS ARE TRENDING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER SUNDAY AND MONDAYS
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BE COURTESY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL DISRUPT THE MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TUE- WED. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN THIS PATTERN THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT TIMING
VARIATION.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED 21Z TAFS FOR CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME SHOWERS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. ACTIVITY SHOULD
END AROUND SUNSET.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND
ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED AIRFIELD IMPACTS PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN
FALLS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED.
MON...MORNING FOG PSBL EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
353 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO SELF DESTRUCT
CUMULUS WITH THE MORNING SFC HEATING. EXPANDING CU FIELD DUE TO
POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ IS SPREADING
SWD FM THE LWR LKS...STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
6.5-7C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE ON THE SAME PAGE SHOWING CVRG
OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INCREASING INTO THE MID
AFTN HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME INTERACTION WITH A LAKE BREEZE
MAY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP MID- LVL LAPSE RATES MAY
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S OVER THE
LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETTING REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS
FOR THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING
AFTER SUNSET. MAXES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WED AFTN
READINGS AND RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500MB LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY WITH THE MEAN TROF
POSITION MOVING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST LATE THURSDAY...EARLY FRIDAY
WITH JUST A SCHC OF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES.
LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES EASTWARD TREK AS THE PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI- ZONAL ORIENTATION INTO SAT.
AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHS COULD BRING A
WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
EARLY SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS MOVE THIS PERTURBATION FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVERLAYING THE AREA AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MASON DIXON BY 06Z SUN. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD HAVE INCREASED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE...PRESENCE OF DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUNDAY...AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. CURRENTLY THE
ONLY FOR SURE DRY DAYS SEEM TO BE FRIDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH GIVEN
VARIABILITY OF MESOSCALE FEATURES THROUGH SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AT
LONGER RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO
HEDGE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING A FEW DEGS
WARMER EACH DAY. THE CURRENT RUNS ARE TRENDING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER SUNDAY AND MONDAYS
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BE COURTESY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL DISRUPT THE MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TUE- WED. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN THIS PATTERN THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT TIMING
VARIATION.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND
ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED AIRFIELD IMPACTS PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN
FALLS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
149 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO SELF DESTRUCT
CUMULUS WITH THE MORNING SFC HEATING. EXPANDING CU FIELD DUE TO
POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ IS SPREADING
SWD FM THE LWR LKS...STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
6.5-7C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE ON THE SAME PAGE SHOWING CVRG
OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INCREASING INTO THE MID
AFTN HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME INTERACTION WITH A LAKE BREEZE
MAY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP MID- LVL LAPSE RATES MAY
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S OVER THE
LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETTING REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS
FOR THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING
AFTER SUNSET. MAXES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WED AFTN
READINGS AND RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HE MEAN TROF POSITION WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY WITH
JUST A SCHC OF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES. THE PATTERN
WILL TRANSITION TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI- ZONAL ORIENTATION ON
SAT...AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GRT LKS.
TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING A FEW DEGS WARMER EACH DAY. ALL MDL DATA
SUGGESTS A WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS WILL CROSS THE
UPPER GRT LKS EARLY SAT MORNING AND REACH UPSTATE NY/NEW ENG BY
SAT EVE. CONSENSUS SOLN WOULD KEEP THIS SYS AND ITS ASSOCD IMPACTS
GENERALLY NORTH OF PA...BUT GIVEN SOME SPATIAL MDL DIFFS AND
LOW/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT LONGER
RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH
LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MID-SUMMER
LIKE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COURTESY OF A STG UPPER
LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING
EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST. CURRENT MEDIAN GUID BLEND HAS HIGHS
PEAKING BTWN 85-90F ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS
WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND
ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED AIRFIELD IMPACTS PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN
FALLS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1003 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES NOW MIXING WITH RIDGETOP CUMULUS WITH THE
MORNING SFC HEATING. CU FIELD WILL EXPAND BY LATE MORNING...AS
SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE COMBINES WITH POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR
ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ SPREADING SWD FM THE LWR LKS. ANOTHER
DISTINCT SHORT WAVE /CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CROSSING THE
LWR LKS AND SRN NEW ENG AT 09Z/ WILL PIVOT SWD AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND HELP TO STEEPEN THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 6.5-7C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE ON THE SAME PAGE SHOWING CVRG
OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INCREASING INTO THE EARLY-
MID AFTN HOURS. HRRR SHOWS BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME
INTERACTION WITH A LAKE BREEZE MAY INDUCE AN ORGANIZED LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STEEP MID- LVL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
ON AVG...RANGING FM THE MID- UPPER 60S MTNS TO LOW 70S IN THE
CENTRAL AND SRN VLYS. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY DURING THE AFTN
HOURS THURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THURS NGT. THE LG SCALE MID-UPPER
TROF WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A SCHC OF
AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES. THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION
TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI-ZONAL ORIENTATION ON SAT...AS AN UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS NWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL BE
MODERATING A FEW DEGS WARMER EACH DAY. ALL MDL DATA SUGGESTS A
WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS WILL CROSS THE UPPER GRT LKS
EARLY SAT MORNING AND REACH UPSTATE NY/NEW ENG BY SAT EVE.
CONSENSUS SOLN WOULD KEEP THIS SYS AND ITS ASSOCD IMPACTS
GENERALLY NORTH OF PA...BUT GIVEN SOME SPATIAL MDL DIFFS AND
LOW/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT LONGER
RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH
LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY COURTESY OF A STG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC
COAST. CURRENT MEDIAN GUID BLEND HAS HIGHS PEAKING BTWN 85-90F ON
MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND
ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS.
FOG AND SUB VFR CIGS IS IN THE PROCESS OF IMPROVING WITH GOOD DEAL
OF MORNING SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...VFR MID CLOUD DECK ALREADY IN THE
PROCESS OF CLOSING IN ON MOST AIRFIELDS BY LATER THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH LOCALIZED IMPACTS PERSISTING
INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN
FALLS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
717 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FM THE CENTRAL GRT LKS IS PROVIDING
M/CLR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING OVR CENTRAL PA. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND RESIDUAL BLYR MSTR/WET SOILS HAS PROMOTED SHALLOW
FOG/STRATUS FORMATION..PARTICULARLY IN THE N-CENTRAL RVR VALLEYS
PER LATEST IR SATL/FOG CHANNEL. SKIES WILL START OFF M/SUNNY
TDY...BUT EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND EXPAND BY
MID-LATE MORNING...AS SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE COMBINES WITH POOL
OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ SPREADING SWD FM
THE LWR LKS. ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE /CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY CROSSING THE LWR LKS AND SRN NEW ENG AT 09Z/ WILL PIVOT
SWD AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND HELP
TO STEEPEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 6.5-7C/KM BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM ARE GENERALLY ON THE SAME
PAGE IN SHOWING CVRG OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
INCREASING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTN HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...MAY
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE GIVEN
BETTER CONFIDENCE. THE WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND ML CAPES
MARGINAL...BUT THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVG...RANGING FM THE MID-UPPER 60S MTNS
TO LOW 70S IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN VLYS. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MINS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY DURING THE AFTN
HOURS THURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THURS NGT. THE LG SCALE MID-UPPER
TROF WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A SCHC OF
AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES. THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION
TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI-ZONAL ORIENTATION ON SAT...AS AN UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS NWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL BE
MODERATING A FEW DEGS WARMER EACH DAY. ALL MDL DATA SUGGESTS A
WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS WILL CROSS THE UPPER GRT LKS
EARLY SAT MORNING AND REACH UPSTATE NY/NEW ENG BY SAT EVE.
CONSENSUS SOLN WOULD KEEP THIS SYS AND ITS ASSOCD IMPACTS
GENERALLY NORTH OF PA...BUT GIVEN SOME SPATIAL MDL DIFFS AND
LOW/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT LONGER
RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH
LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY COURTESY OF A STG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC
COAST. CURRENT MEDIAN GUID BLEND HAS HIGHS PEAKING BTWN 85-90F ON
MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND
ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS.
FOG AND SUB VFR CIGS IS IN THE PROCESS OF IMPROVING WITH GOOD DEAL
OF MORNING SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...VFR MID CLOUD DECK ALREADY IN THE
PROCESS OF CLOSING IN ON MOST AIRFIELDS BY LATER THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH LOCALIZED IMPACTS PERSISTING
INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN
FALLS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
558 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FM THE CENTRAL GRT LKS IS PROVIDING
M/CLR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING OVR CENTRAL PA. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND RESIDUAL BLYR MSTR/WET SOILS HAS PROMOTED SHALLOW
FOG/STRATUS FORMATION..PARTICULARLY IN THE N-CENTRAL RVR VALLEYS
PER LATEST IR SATL/FOG CHANNEL. SKIES WILL START OFF M/SUNNY
TDY...BUT EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND EXPAND BY
MID-LATE MORNING...AS SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE COMBINES WITH POOL
OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ SPREADING SWD FM
THE LWR LKS. ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE /CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY CROSSING THE LWR LKS AND SRN NEW ENG AT 09Z/ WILL PIVOT
SWD AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND HELP
TO STEEPEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 6.5-7C/KM BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM ARE GENERALLY ON THE SAME
PAGE IN SHOWING CVRG OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
INCREASING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTN HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...MAY
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE GIVEN
BETTER CONFIDENCE. THE WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND ML CAPES
MARGINAL...BUT THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVG...RANGING FM THE MID-UPPER 60S MTNS
TO LOW 70S IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN VLYS. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MINS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY DURING THE AFTN
HOURS THURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THURS NGT. THE LG SCALE MID-UPPER
TROF WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A SCHC OF
AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES. THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION
TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI-ZONAL ORIENTATION ON SAT...AS AN UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS NWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL BE
MODERATING A FEW DEGS WARMER EACH DAY. ALL MDL DATA SUGGESTS A
WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS WILL CROSS THE UPPER GRT LKS
EARLY SAT MORNING AND REACH UPSTATE NY/NEW ENG BY SAT EVE.
CONSENSUS SOLN WOULD KEEP THIS SYS AND ITS ASSOCD IMPACTS
GENERALLY NORTH OF PA...BUT GIVEN SOME SPATIAL MDL DIFFS AND
LOW/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT LONGER
RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH
LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY COURTESY OF A STG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC
COAST. CURRENT MEDIAN GUID BLEND HAS HIGHS PEAKING BTWN 85-90F ON
MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND
ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS.
THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AM IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...CLEARER
SKIES THAN PVS NIGHTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FORMATION OF FOG
AN LOW CIGS AT ALL AIRFIELDS EXCEPT FOR MDT AND LNS. MVFR VSBYS
AND IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
PERSIST TO NEAR DAYBREAK.
STILL SOME CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTN AND AGAIN THURSDAY...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
920 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA INTO TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
MAY BRING A RETURN TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM...A CHALLENGING FCST FOR THIS MORNING/S UPDATE. SHOWERS
HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK-BUILD ACRS THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND NC
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP SHOW ISENT LIFT ATOP A WEAK
IN SITU WEDGE COUPLED WITH THE VERY EDGE OF STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS PROBABLY RESPONSIBLE. THESE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS
LIFT SHUD WEAKEN AS CHANNELED VORT MAX (AND ASSOCIATED Q
CONVERGENCE) EXITS TO THE EAST FROM ABOUT NOW THRU MIDDAY. LIFT
WON/T COMPLETELY END TODAY...AND EASTERLY 850 MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 10-15 KTS THRU THE DAY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING THRU THE DAY...TRANSITIONING FROM THE I-77
CORRIDOR TO MORE ALONG/INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WITH THAT SAID...THE CURRENT SHOWERS ARE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS THANKS TO WARM CLOUD PROCESSES (12Z GSO SOUNDING STILL
SHOWS SLIGHT WARM NOSE AROUND 600MB). RAIN OVERNIGHT WAS
HEAVY...WITH A FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF 1.5 TO 2" ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHERN CHARLOTTE METRO. STILL THINK WITH THE
UPPER SUPPORT EXITING AND ISENT LIFT WEAKENING...FLOOD THREAT TOO
LOW TO ISSUE ANY WATCH. A FEW STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH
AND ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS. SO SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AND I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXCESSIVE RAIN/FLOOD THREAT IN THE
HWO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 0230 EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
EAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WAS LOCATED. THIS UPGLIDE IS SHOW TO WEAKEN AFTER
12Z IN THE NAM. A CHANNELED VORT LOBE WILL MOVE INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TODAY...FOLLOW BY ANOTHER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST.
WITH A MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...POPS WILL
FAVOR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT...AS A COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS UNDER LOW
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT RANGE WILL FEATURE AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE OLD UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FINALLY MOVES AWAY. THE LAST CHANNELED VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
WEAK CONVERGENCE TOWARD THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...THAT SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE REALLY STARTS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...SO THAT SHOULD BE IT FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
GULF IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MS
DELTA/SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE GFS AND ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH AGREE THAT A PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP THAT IS QUITE FAVORABLE TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AT LEAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE RAISED
POP INTO THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE MTNS ACCORDINGLY. DEEP MOISTURE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE
RAISED INTO THE CHANCE RANGE EVERYWHERE FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CIG HAS DEVELOPED AND SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK...AFTER WHICH A LOW VFR CIG WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSION LARGE ENOUGH TO FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH VFR VSBY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
LOW VFR VSBY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY FOG
JUST YET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM ENE.
ELSEWHERE...KHKY WILL KEEP IFR CIG AND MVFR VSBY EARLY THIS MORNING
IN RAIN SOAKED AIR. OTHER TAF SITES ARE VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBY
AT KAVL...BUT AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE
UPSTATE. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT AT KHKY AS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINS THERE IN WEAKENING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE
THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST IN MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELED DOWN
VALLEY FROM THE SSE AT KAVL. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR VSBY AT MOST
SITES BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY...EXCEPT KAND AND KGMU. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN AT KGSP THAN AT KAVL OR KHKY...BOTH OF
WHICH HAD BETTER RAIN THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...E-NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND A CHANCE
OF AT LEAST MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG INTO THU. DRY
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK/JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
351 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...AND RETURNING CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST. COMPACT MID/UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CIRCULATION. TO THE WEST...OTHER THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CO. HAVE SEEN ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AND ALSO ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. MID/UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OK TONIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA
THIS EVENING. STEERING FLOW IS STILL WEAK...SO SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT. HUNG ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING GIVEN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK
CAPPING IN PLACE ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY LOWER THAN IN THE
EAST AND NORTHWEST GIVEN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING ASIDE
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST LAPS AND RAP ANALYSIS DATA SHOW MLCAPES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 1000-2500 J/KG RANGE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHWEST. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/20-30 KTS/ IS ALSO IN THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE
STRONGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF COMPACT UPPER LOW. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IF STORMS MAKE
IT IN...WHILE WEAKER SHEAR WILL KEEP STORMS MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY
ACROSS THE EAST BUT THEY COULD BE STRONG OR BRIEFLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS OVER AN INCH WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. LATE
TONIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A 20-30 KT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
LLJ. ALSO MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DUE TO MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT VSBYS FROM
FALLING REAL LOW.
THE COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS INITIATE IN SOUTHERN CO/NORTHEAST
NM DURING THE AFTERNOON EITHER ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IF THEY DO...CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
UPPER LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING
TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR ONE MORE DAY
THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE REMAINING OVER EASTERN NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...BELIEVE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO
ANY CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO REBOUND...WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...INDUCING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN
RESPONSE...WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
OFF THIS WEEKEND...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SILENT POPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE EXPANDING AREA WIDE BY
TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND MID
/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACTIVITY.
KB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE 30 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES AND SUNDAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EAST BEHIND
THE DRYLINE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
DURING THIS TIME...SO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE FUELS ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...RECENT
RAINFALL AND EFFECT ON FUELS SHOULD MITIGATE THESE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT.
KB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 63 80 62 86 63 / 30 20 10 10 10
BEAVER OK 64 83 63 89 66 / 20 10 10 10 10
BOISE CITY OK 61 82 60 88 60 / 30 20 20 10 10
BORGER TX 64 81 65 88 68 / 30 20 10 10 10
BOYS RANCH TX 64 85 66 90 65 / 20 20 10 10 10
CANYON TX 63 80 63 86 62 / 30 20 10 10 10
CLARENDON TX 64 79 63 84 64 / 30 30 10 10 10
DALHART TX 59 82 62 90 60 / 20 20 20 10 10
GUYMON OK 63 83 63 89 66 / 20 10 20 10 10
HEREFORD TX 61 81 64 87 62 / 20 20 10 10 10
LIPSCOMB TX 66 81 63 85 68 / 40 20 10 10 10
PAMPA TX 62 79 61 85 64 / 30 20 10 10 10
SHAMROCK TX 65 80 63 84 66 / 40 30 10 10 10
WELLINGTON TX 66 81 65 87 65 / 40 30 10 10 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
07/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1122 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND THE
SUBSIDENT ZONE THAT HAS DOMINATED NORTH TEXAS IS BEING SHUNTED
EAST IN THE PROCESS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS INVADED WESTERN ZONES
AND WILL SOON BE LIFTING A BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER WHOSE MLCAPE
VALUES ALREADY EXCEED 1000 J/KG. WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION AND
FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL FORCING ALOFT...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SOON
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THAT WILL PROPAGATE FURTHER EAST
INTO THE CWA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
LATE MORNING UPDATE ENHANCES POPS IN WESTERN ZONES. MOST OTHER
EDITS INVOLVE HOURLY EVOLUTION OF WINDS AND TEMPS BASED ON ONGOING
OUTFLOW AND FUTURE CONVECTIVE/OUTFLOW EVOLUTION. UPDATED PRODUCTS
AND IMAGES BEING SENT NOW.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE TIMING AND INITIATION. SREF
AND GFS HAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS METROPLEX TAF SITES ALL
NIGHT...WHICH OBVIOUSLY DID NOT HAPPEN. HRRR AT 12Z (NOW) HAS
PRECIP FROM SHERMAN EASTWARD INTO SRN AR. CURRENT NAM PRECIP IS
ABOUT TWO COUNTIES TWO FAR EAST. POOR INITIALIZATION ACROSS THE
BOARD GIVES LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION AT
METROPLEX. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS TIMING OF STORMS DURING MAX HEATING
ON TOWARDS SUNSET AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. HAVE DROPPED THE TEMPO GROUPS FROM THURSDAY MORNING AND
LEFT VCTS BECAUSE MODELS SEEM TO BE DRIER IN THAT TIME PERIOD AS
WELL. WILL HOPE THAT 12Z GUIDANCE IS INITIALIZED BETTER AND LET
THE DAY SHIFT MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES TO STORM TIMING. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SLOW-MOVING WARM CORE UPPER
LOW MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED NEAR
SWEETWATER...LUBBOCK AND BIG SPRING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
STORMS. THIS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK BETTER ON RADAR AND
WILL LIKELY HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW A BIT...DUE TO LATENT HEAT
PROCESSES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE PW VALUES HIGHER FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW...AS THE DRIER AIR TENDS TO LIMIT
THE HEAT FLUX. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING EAST OF THE
CWA...WITHIN A SHEAR AXIS ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH
TEXAS...EXCEPT FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST
TODAY...BUT THE MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW...IMPACTED BY A
BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
OUTPUT IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP TODAY. SEVERAL
WRF MEMBERS ONLY HAVE A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION.
WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED CLOSER TO NORTH
TEXAS AND TONIGHTS ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN MOVE EAST...WEAKENING IN THE MORNING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAN THE NAM. THE NAM IS PLACING MOST OF ITS QPF SOUTH OF
I-20...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TO THE NORTH. WILL STICK WITH THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION...BUT THE EXACT LATITUDE THE MAIN FORCING
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS THE MOST RAINFALL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
END PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS 850 TEMPS OF 25-29C WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
THE GFS SENDS A DEEP LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
THE MODEL IS PROGGING A COLD FRONT WITH PRECIP TO REACH THE
NORTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY EVENING. NORTH TEXAS WILL STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM
PLAUSIBLE. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT/PRECIP
NORTH OF THE CWA. MEXMOS IS FORECASTING 30 POPS TUESDAY...BUT WILL
KEEP THE SILENT 10S IN THE FORECAST.
85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 71 85 69 87 / 70 70 60 50 20
WACO, TX 93 72 88 70 89 / 50 40 30 40 20
PARIS, TX 89 66 87 65 85 / 50 60 40 50 30
DENTON, TX 87 70 85 68 86 / 70 70 60 50 20
MCKINNEY, TX 88 68 84 66 86 / 60 70 60 50 30
DALLAS, TX 89 72 85 69 87 / 70 70 50 50 30
TERRELL, TX 90 70 85 68 86 / 50 70 50 50 30
CORSICANA, TX 93 71 86 70 87 / 50 60 30 50 30
TEMPLE, TX 93 71 85 70 89 / 40 30 30 30 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 87 69 83 68 85 / 70 70 60 50 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
708 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.AVIATION...
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE TIMING AND INITIATION. SREF
AND GFS HAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS METROPLEX TAF SITES ALL
NIGHT...WHICH OBVIOUSLY DID NOT HAPPEN. HRRR AT 12Z (NOW) HAS
PRECIP FROM SHERMAN EASTWARD INTO SRN AR. CURRENT NAM PRECIP IS
ABOUT TWO COUNTIES TWO FAR EAST. POOR INITIALIZATION ACROSS THE
BOARD GIVES LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION AT
METROPLEX. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS TIMING OF STORMS DURING MAX HEATING
ON TOWARDS SUNSET AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. HAVE DROPPED THE TEMPO GROUPS FROM THURSDAY MORNING AND
LEFT VCTS BECAUSE MODELS SEEM TO BE DRIER IN THAT TIME PERIOD AS
WELL. WILL HOPE THAT 12Z GUIDANCE IS INITIALIZED BETTER AND LET
THE DAY SHIFT MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES TO STORM TIMING. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SLOW-MOVING WARM CORE UPPER
LOW MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED NEAR
SWEETWATER...LUBBOCK AND BIG SPRING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
STORMS. THIS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK BETTER ON RADAR AND
WILL LIKELY HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW A BIT...DUE TO LATENT HEAT
PROCESSES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE PW VALUES HIGHER FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW...AS THE DRIER AIR TENDS TO LIMIT
THE HEAT FLUX. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING EAST OF THE
CWA...WITHIN A SHEAR AXIS ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH
TEXAS...EXCEPT FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST
TODAY...BUT THE MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW...IMPACTED BY A
BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
OUTPUT IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP TODAY. SEVERAL
WRF MEMBERS ONLY HAVE A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION.
WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED CLOSER TO NORTH
TEXAS AND TONIGHTS ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN MOVE EAST...WEAKENING IN THE MORNING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAN THE NAM. THE NAM IS PLACING MOST OF ITS QPF SOUTH OF
I-20...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TO THE NORTH. WILL STICK WITH THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION...BUT THE EXACT LATITUDE THE MAIN FORCING
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS THE MOST RAINFALL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
END PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS 850 TEMPS OF 25-29C WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
THE GFS SENDS A DEEP LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
THE MODEL IS PROGGING A COLD FRONT WITH PRECIP TO REACH THE
NORTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY EVENING. NORTH TEXAS WILL STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM
PLAUSIBLE. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT/PRECIP
NORTH OF THE CWA. MEXMOS IS FORECASTING 30 POPS TUESDAY...BUT WILL
KEEP THE SILENT 10S IN THE FORECAST.
85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 71 85 69 87 / 70 70 60 50 20
WACO, TX 93 72 88 70 89 / 30 40 30 40 20
PARIS, TX 88 66 87 65 85 / 50 60 40 50 30
DENTON, TX 87 70 85 68 86 / 70 70 60 50 20
MCKINNEY, TX 88 68 84 66 86 / 70 70 60 50 30
DALLAS, TX 89 72 85 69 87 / 70 70 50 50 30
TERRELL, TX 90 70 85 68 86 / 60 70 50 50 30
CORSICANA, TX 93 71 86 70 87 / 50 60 30 50 30
TEMPLE, TX 93 71 85 70 89 / 30 30 30 30 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 88 69 83 68 85 / 60 70 60 50 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHWARD LATE SATURDAY, PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY, STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS...AS THEY HAVE BEEN MOST OF THE
WEEK...WILL BE THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LAST FEW SHOWERS RIDING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ACTIVITY...BEING DRIVEN BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE FLOW...PROBABLY
DISSIPATES BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONFIRMS THIS
THOUGHT...AND UNLESS TRENDS CHANGE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.
PATCHY FOG IS TRYING TO FORM IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FOG WILL BE CARRIED INTO THE HOURS JUST
AFTER SUNRISE. WHILE THE PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME DENSE (DUE TO LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS)...IF IT DEVELOPS IT WILL BE HANDLED WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
THE AIRMASS IS WARMING FROM WITHIN...AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PEAK NEAR 11 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING
THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW MIXING FROM ABOVE THIS LEVEL. MOS GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS TODAY...AND WITH A BIT LESS IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW...THESE
NUMBERS ARE ACCEPTED.
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN
THURSDAY. DEW POINTS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...AND AGAIN MOISTURE LOOKS TO
BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARMING WILL START THE PROCESS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING A PAIR OF WEAK SPOKES ROTATING
THROUGH THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
CONVECTION GOING.
THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIE FROM THE THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...WHERE MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST
MEAN LAYER CAPE. THE OVERALL SHEAR PATTERN IMPROVES AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON...WITH SHEAR VALUES REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON NORTH. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER
ORGANIZED CELLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND MORE LIKELY
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS HERE SUGGEST BETTER DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS...AND DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE
AS THE PAST FEW DAYS (WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVELS)...SO SMALL
HAIL IS PROBABLY THE BEST STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MUSTER.
AT THIS POINT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL
NOT BE INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF QUESTIONS ABOUT
COVERAGE. IN ANY EVENT...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS COULD MOVE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NEW JERSEY SHORE...SO THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE EXTENDED TO THESE AREAS IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE CONVECTION COULD CUT OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AS MID LEVEL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM...ALLOWING CAPPING
TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING...AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES TO THE EAST AND OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
COULD ROTATE THROUGH THE BROADLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE AIRMASS IN WARMING FROM
WITHIN...SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
FOR THE MOST PART...LOWS WERE BASED ON THE MOS BLEND. IN NORMALLY
COOLER AREAS...LOWS WERE NUDGED DOWN CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS
NUMBERS...AS LIGHT WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE START THE PERIOD OFF WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES EASTWARD. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION IN THE MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW BUT APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
WEEK IN NATURE. THESE WAVES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST
ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE
LOW TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE HAS IMPROVED AS THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL SEEM TO HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING. STILL, JUST HOW FAST IT MOVES WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN WARMER THAN THE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL PRETTY WARM BUT
HAVE COOLED WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 14-16C RANGE, AS OPPOSED TO THE
15-18C THEY WERE SHOWING ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS AVERAGE.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND BY MONDAY MORNING
SETTLES ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BEGINS TO NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING MORE
OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHICH SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COOLER. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLOSER TO 12C, EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, IN THE LOWER 80S.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY
BUT WITH THE SURFACE FLOW REMAIN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HINTS THAT
THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OUR AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP NEAR THE 2 INCH MARK,
WE COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH 1200 UTC AT MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTIONS
WOULD BE KRDG...KMIV AND KACY...AS THESE LOCATIONS SAW RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KRDG IS ALREADY
IFR...AND COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KMIV AND KACY ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...AND COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR FOG BETWEEN 0800 UTC AND
1100 UTC.
AFTER THE LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIFT AFTER 1200 UTC...A GENERAL
VFR DAY IS EXPECTED. THERE IS MORE GRADIENT FLOW TODAY...SO GUSTS
BETWEEN 18 AND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN
MOST PLACES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE THUNDER
WOULD BE KABE AND KRDG. THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED YET...SINCE
CONFIDENCE IN NOT HIGH ENOUGH...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH THE 1200
UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS.
ANY LOCATION MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE 0300 UTC
SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION...AS IT IS THIS MORNING...COULD BE TERMINALS THAT GET
RAIN. ANY SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS TO OCCUR AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY WEST OF KPHL, IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LIMITS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE SNAPPED BACK TO THE SYNOPTIC WIND DIRECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE DROPPED BACK BELOW 15 KNOTS JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. THE GRADIENT FLOW LOOKS TO BE MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR OVER THE COOLER
WATER...AND THIS WILL DAMPEN ANY MIXING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MIXING WILL BE OVER THE DELAWARE BAY...AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE OCEAN. EVEN HERE...MIXING WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS. IN
FACT...FURTHER OFFSHORE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD RELAX ENOUGH
FOR WINDS TO GO SOUTH...AND GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS (LIKE AT 44009).
IN ANY EVENT....WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY TEND TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE 925 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS...IN TWO PUSHES. THE FIRST PUSH WILL BE
THIS EVENING...AND THE WARMER AIR OVER COOLER WATERS SHOULD LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF MIXING FOR THIS PUSH. THE SECOND PUSH LOOKS TO BE
LATER (CLOSER TO 0900 UTC). THIS PUSH MAY HAVE A BIT MORE TRANSFER
POTENTIAL AS THE AIR OVER LAND COOLS...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS...EVEN IN GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GET GUSTY, AROUND 20 TO
25 KNOTS, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAY APPROACH 5 FEET AROUND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THUS FAR HAS PEAKED ABOUT ONE-HALF BELOW THE
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BENCHMARK ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS...INCLUDING THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE
UPPER BAY WILL ALSO PEAK BELOW THE BENCHMARK...AND TRENDS SUGGEST
THE SAME WILL OCCUR ON THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. IF
TRENDS CONTINUE...THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED TO
INDICATE THE END OF THE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
AS THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES CONTINUE TO DROP AS WE MOVE AWAY FROM
THE FULL MOON...THE THREAT FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD DIMINISH.
THE MOST RECENT STORM SURGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE OF INTEREST (MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING) SHOULD REMAIN BE,LOW
THE BENCHMARK...SO NO FURTHER ACTION APPEARS NECESSARY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...HAYES/MEOLA
MARINE...HAYES/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...HOW HOT DOES IT GET/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
SATURDAY...AND WINDS/HOW COOL DOES IT GET/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STILL A TROUGH...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE...AND TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT JET LEVEL WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY BETTER.
AT MID LEVELS...WOULD HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO THE GFS SINCE IT IS
DOING THE BEST WITH DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ECMWF
FOLLOWED BY THE NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE
WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. ECMWF WAS ESPECIALLY DOING WELL WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH POSITION OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION REMAINED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVED FURTHER EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER/NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN GOVERNED BY MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES. MOST MODEL OUTPUT...EVEN THE HRRR AND RUC...HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE FOR AS A LONG AS POSSIBLE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION/DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE AROUND...MAY
AFFECT THE EXTENT OF THE FOG AS WELL.
MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR UPSTREAM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
REMAINS WELL WEST. WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR
WEST. GRADIENT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS BREEZY TO WINDY. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. NWP IS THE COOLEST
GUIDANCE OF THE BUNCH WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING WARMER
TEMPERATURES. ALL DEPENDS HOW FAST DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION LASTS PLUS WHEN WHATEVER STRATUS DEVELOPS ALSO
BURNS OFF. DID TONE DOWN MAXES IN THE WEST A FEW DEGREES BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD COVER AND MADE THE EAST THE WARMEST.
SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT ON MAX TEMPERATURES AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE HANDLING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. HOWEVER DUE TO UPSTREAM RIDGING AND
NCEP DISCUSSIONS...DO BELIEVE THAT SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH AND MAYBE EVEN SLOWER. THERE LOOKS TO BE STRONGER MID/UPPER
RIDGING BUT THE LEE TROUGH MAYBE FURTHER WEST WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE WINDS. BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS THIS THE BEST
AT THIS TIME. ABOVE REASONING...850 TO 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND
BLENDING OF VARIOUS NWP/2M GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. REFER BELOW FOR
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
WE LOOK TO STAY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST +15C.
ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HOT...AN ISOLATED UPDRAFT IS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE EARLIER GUIDANCE PER EXPLANATION GIVEN ABOVE.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z AND THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE LOOKS NOW TO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...
IT STILL LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CINH.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. RATHER
IMPRESSIVE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OCCUR AND A BRIEFLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AS WELL. IF THIS WERE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WOULD SAY THAT
THERE WOULD BE A DECENT CHANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE A RAPID/BRIEF BURST OF WINDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
SOME DECREASE IN THE WINDS BY 18Z.
EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCE IN MODEL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE EARLIER
GUIDANCE WITH A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT WITH TONIGHTS LATER GUIDANCE.
NAM IS BY FAR THE COOLEST. FRONT LOOKS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY
18Z. BASED ON THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND THE COLD AIR I SEE
BEHIND IT UPSTREAM...DID TREND THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
EARLY MODEL RUNS FROM THE EVENING HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE NAM BY FAR
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE 06Z NAM MAINTAINED THIS. HOWEVER...
OTHER MODELS NOW HAVE LESS PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE
IT FURTHER SOUTH. SREF AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS AND MAKES SENSE
SINCE THE AREA LOOKS FAR REMOVED FROM THE MAIN LIFT AND
INSTABILITY. SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ABOVE REASONING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE NORTH
OF THIS FRONT AND WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CWA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS...MAY
SEE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THE GFS BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHERN TRACK
WOULD PLACE THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT OVERALL
FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS AT KGLD...HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS
WITH BEST CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO HAVE STRUGGLED TO
MOVE VERY FAR EAST...WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR REMAINING WEST OF THE
KS/CO STATE LINE. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT SHIFT NORTH WITH A STABLE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT...SO DO NOT CURRENTLY PLAN
ON INCLUDING PRECIP MENTION IN TAFS. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS
AT KMCK EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
PER REASONING ABOVE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE
TROUGH COULD BE FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD MAKE LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. IF ECMWF WORKS OUT THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WOULD BE WEAK
ALONG WITH THE WINDS AS WELL. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE RATHER
LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED TO OUR WEST WHICH MAY CAUSE
DEWPOINTS TO BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AT THIS TIME CHOSE
TO NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IF
HAD TO WOULD SAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONDITIONS TO BE MET WOULD
OVER THE COLORADO PORTION OF OUR AREA. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT IN HWO AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER/PM
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE 08.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A STRONG 130 KT JET PUSHING ASHORE
ACROSS KMFR (MEDFORD, OR) WITH A WEAKER JET STREAK YET CYCLONICALLY
CURVED FROM KOTX (SPOKANE, WA) NORTHWARD TO CWEG (EDMONTON, AB). DOWNSTREAM,
AN 80 KT JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS CWPL (PICKLE LAKE, ON) AND TURNING INTO
MORE ZONAL FLOW FROM KOHX (NASHVILLE, TN) TO KRNK (BLACKSBURG, VA) TO
KMHX (NEWPORT, NC). AT 500 HPA, COLD AIR OF -26 DEG C TO -23 DEG C EXTENDED
FROM KSLE (SALEM, OR) TO CYZT (PORT HARDY, BC). FAIRLY SEASONAL 500
HPA TEMPERATURES OF -11 TO -10 DEG C EXTENDED FROM KABR (ABERDEEN, SD)
TO KDDC (DODGE CITY, KS). ANOTHER COLD POOL W/ H5 TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND
-21 DEG C TO -19 DEG C WAS OBSERVED ACROSS QUEBEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH. AT 700 & 850 HPA, MOST NOTICEABLE WERE
THE TWO COLD POOLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE CANADA. AT THE
SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S DEG F SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DEG F
WERE TAKING THE LONG WAY BEHIND A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER VIA
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS SW KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THIS MORNING:
ALL IS NOT QUIET ON THE WESTERN KANSAS FRONT. HAVE TWO FORECAST CONCERNS
THAT HAVE STARTED TO APPEAR/TREND ON A WSR-88D MOSAIC MAP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE COLORADO & THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THOSE TWO SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FOG AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE TAKING THE "LONG WAY" (AKA ADVECTION) ACROSS THE HIGH TEXAS PLAINS
WHEREAS DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ARE LOWER
(MID TO UPPER 50S DEG F VERSUS AROUND 60 DEG F TOWARDS KDHT). NAM BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND BUFKIT FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P`S SUGGEST
THAT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE
BORDER. SREF VISIBILITY PROGS ALSO SUGGEST HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR HAS BACKED
OFF ON FOG IN RECENT RUNS SO THIS MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN TERMS
OF AERIAL COVERAGE. THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE.
SECOND CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ROUGHLY
WEST OF DODGE CITY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL RUNS FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST
DECENT COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY/QPF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CAUSED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 800 TO 700 HPA LAYER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS AS A RESULT. BOTH
CORES OF THE WRF ARE ALSO SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
TODAY:
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE ON THE BANAL SIDE.
THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TYPICALLY DOES DURING THE
DAY. MIXING ROUGHLY TO 750 HPA AND RESULTANT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWNWARD
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 80S DEG F). AFTER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
CLEARS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...HAVE MID 60S DEG F IN THE GRIDS. A LACK OF SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE
PERTURBATIONS/500 HPA RIDGING/WEAK JET DYNAMICS DURING THE EVENING WILL
RESULT IN 0 PERCENT POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE START OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE WARM AND WINDY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND +14 TO +16C 700MB TEMPERATURES SPREADS EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY
SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE FURTHER EAST 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 20S. 25C 850 MB TEMPERATURE MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS STILL YIELDED HIGHS
AROUND 90 DEGREES SO THE BASED ON THE NEW 850-700MB TEMPERATURES
AT 00Z SUNDAY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE DAY.
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
NOW FORECAST BY THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS STILL
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS/NEAR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS BUT
MID LEVELS WILL BE COOLING BY 00Z MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. BASED ON THIS COOLING, LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND MOISTURE/FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WILL INTRODUCE CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY LATE SUNDAY AND
THEN EXPAND CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY
EVENING RANGES FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 30 TO 40
KNOTS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IT DOES APPEAR THEY WILL HAVE
TO POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BY LATE DAY. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT NOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED A FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS RUN. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET HOWEVER SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE FURTHER GFS SUGGESTED. AS A RESULT WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE WARMER CONSALL MOS AND 850MB 00Z MONDAY ECMWF TEMPERATURES AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. HIGHS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ONLY TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PERSIST
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BASED ON 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION, 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A
GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE 850MB MOISTURE AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT I310
AND I315 LEVELS HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS LATE DAY.
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE WESTERLY
FLOW MID TO LATE WEEK. EACH OF THESE WAVES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THEY
PASS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING, TRACK
OR STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE FEATURES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE
LATER PERIODS.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK STILL LOOK TO BE MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S EACH DAY. CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK MAY
HOLD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THE 850MB MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
A FORECAST CONUNDRUM EXISTS FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WELL TWO. FOG AND CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. FIRST FOR THE FOG, BUFKIT PROFILES AND MOS GUIDANCE IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS TAKING THE LONG
WAY UP FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF COMING DIRECTLY FROM OKLAHOMA.
IN FACT, TD`S ARE LOWER ACROSS THE SOONER STATE THAN LAST NIGHT. AS
A RESULT, AND AFTER CHECKING SREF/HRRR, I HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE FOG
FROM THE TAFS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO STAY NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. SECONDLY, THE 01Z HRRR IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH 800-700 HPA WAA/FRONTOGENESIS THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS BEFORE INSERTING IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 18-23 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 65 93 67 / 20 0 10 10
GCK 88 65 97 67 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 87 65 99 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 87 65 97 66 / 20 0 10 0
HYS 88 66 94 69 / 10 0 10 10
P28 89 66 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE 08.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A STRONG 130 KT JET PUSHING ASHORE
ACROSS KMFR (MEDFORD, OR) WITH A WEAKER JET STREAK YET CYCLONICALLY
CURVED FROM KOTX (SPOKANE, WA) NORTHWARD TO CWEG (EDMONTON, AB). DOWNSTREAM,
AN 80 KT JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS CWPL (PICKLE LAKE, ON) AND TURNING INTO
MORE ZONAL FLOW FROM KOHX (NASHVILLE, TN) TO KRNK (BLACKSBURG, VA) TO
KMHX (NEWPORT, NC). AT 500 HPA, COLD AIR OF -26 DEG C TO -23 DEG C EXTENDED
FROM KSLE (SALEM, OR) TO CYZT (PORT HARDY, BC). FAIRLY SEASONAL 500
HPA TEMPERATURES OF -11 TO -10 DEG C EXTENDED FROM KABR (ABERDEEN, SD)
TO KDDC (DODGE CITY, KS). ANOTHER COLD POOL W/ H5 TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND
-21 DEG C TO -19 DEG C WAS OBSERVED ACROSS QUEBEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH. AT 700 & 850 HPA, MOST NOTICEABLE WERE
THE TWO COLD POOLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE CANADA. AT THE
SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S DEG F SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DEG F
WERE TAKING THE LONG WAY BEHIND A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER VIA
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS SW KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THIS MORNING:
ALL IS NOT QUIET ON THE WESTERN KANSAS FRONT. HAVE TWO FORECAST CONCERNS
THAT HAVE STARTED TO APPEAR/TREND ON A WSR-88D MOSAIC MAP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE COLORADO & THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THOSE TWO SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FOG AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE TAKING THE "LONG WAY" (AKA ADVECTION) ACROSS THE HIGH TEXAS PLAINS
WHEREAS DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ARE LOWER
(MID TO UPPER 50S DEG F VERSUS AROUND 60 DEG F TOWARDS KDHT). NAM BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND BUFKIT FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P`S SUGGEST
THAT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE
BORDER. SREF VISIBILITY PROGS ALSO SUGGEST HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR HAS BACKED
OFF ON FOG IN RECENT RUNS SO THIS MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN TERMS
OF AERIAL COVERAGE. THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE.
SECOND CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ROUGHLY
WEST OF DODGE CITY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL RUNS FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST
DECENT COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY/QPF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CAUSED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 800 TO 700 HPA LAYER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS AS A RESULT. BOTH
CORES OF THE WRF ARE ALSO SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
TODAY:
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE ON THE BANAL SIDE.
THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TYPICALLY DOES DURING THE
DAY. MIXING ROUGHLY TO 750 HPA AND RESULTANT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWNWARD
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 80S DEG F). AFTER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
CLEARS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...HAVE MID 60S DEG F IN THE GRIDS. A LACK OF SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE
PERTURBATIONS/500 HPA RIDGING/WEAK JET DYNAMICS DURING THE EVENING WILL
RESULT IN 0 PERCENT POPS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL AID IN THE LEE TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO. WARM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS LIKELY TO PEAK
NEAR 100 OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY.
ANTICIPATE THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SETUP WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
THE END OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
A FORECAST CONUNDRUM EXISTS FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WELL TWO. FOG AND CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. FIRST FOR THE FOG, BUFKIT PROFILES AND MOS GUIDANCE IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS TAKING THE LONG
WAY UP FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF COMING DIRECTLY FROM OKLAHOMA.
IN FACT, TD`S ARE LOWER ACROSS THE SOONER STATE THAN LAST NIGHT. AS
A RESULT, AND AFTER CHECKING SREF/HRRR, I HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE FOG
FROM THE TAFS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO STAY NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. SECONDLY, THE 01Z HRRR IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH 800-700 HPA WAA/FRONTOGENESIS THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS BEFORE INSERTING IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 18-23 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 65 93 67 / 20 0 10 10
GCK 88 65 97 67 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 87 65 99 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 87 65 97 66 / 20 0 10 0
HYS 88 66 94 69 / 10 0 10 10
P28 89 66 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 06Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA DEPICTED THE AXIS OF THE 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH FAR WESTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND UTAH. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED THIS WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...FAIRLY MOIST
AIR WAS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND HAD MANIFEST
ITSELF AS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG.
THE GOING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS DRY FOR TONIGHT
AND DON`T SEE ANY REASON TO CHANGE THAT NOW. THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
PAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SITUATED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WHERE 3000+ J/KG OF CAPE IS INDICATED.
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES CONSIDERABLE FARTHER EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED TO EASTERN COLORADO. IN ADDITION...THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL ARE KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING UP AGAIN TONIGHT
SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN. ANYTHING
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS
A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 50S UP AROUND I-70 IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL AID IN THE LEE TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO. WARM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS LIKELY TO PEAK
NEAR 100 OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY.
ANTICIPATE THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SETUP WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
THE END OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
A FORECAST CONUNDRUM EXISTS FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WELL TWO. FOG AND CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. FIRST FOR THE FOG, BUFKIT PROFILES AND MOS GUIDANCE IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS TAKING THE LONG
WAY UP FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INSTEAD OF COMING DIRECTLY FROM OKLAHOMA.
IN FACT, TD`S ARE LOWER ACROSS THE SOONER STATE THAN LAST NIGHT. AS
A RESULT, AND AFTER CHECKING SREF/HRRR, I HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE FOG
FROM THE TAFS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO STAY NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. SECONDLY, THE 01Z HRRR IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH 800-700 HPA WAA/FRONTOGENESIS THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS BEFORE INSERTING IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 18-23 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 86 65 93 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 61 88 65 97 / 10 10 10 0
EHA 62 87 64 99 / 10 10 10 0
LBL 63 89 65 97 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 57 88 66 94 / 10 10 10 10
P28 60 86 66 90 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1203 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS FROM THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PASSAGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CHANGE THE
WEATHER MODE COMPARED TO THAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BEGIN TO CARRY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION THAT
WILL STILL BE LEAN ON MOISTURE AND LESS PRONE TO CUMULUS FORMATION.
MORE NOTICEABLE WILL BE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE FROM PTK NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER A VEIL OF
HIGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO REACH THE MBS REGION LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT THIS IS TOO MUCH
DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF STORMS IN PROGRESS OVER THE PLAINS TO
INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 331 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
LATEST RAP BASED MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS ARE HIGHLIGHTING MUCAPES OF
APPROXIMATELY 200-500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS IS DOWN
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE 12Z DTX RAOB BUT IN LOCKSTEP WITH 07.12Z
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. FORECAST SOUNDING DIAGNOSIS SHOWS SUBTLE
600-400MB WARMING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...IN TOW OF THE
LATE MORNING SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THIS VERY SUBTLE WARMING APPEARS
ENOUGH TO KNOCK OUT ANY STEEPER LAPSE RATES RESIDING IN THE
MIDLEVELS. SO...WHILE AN ISO-SCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IS STILL POSSIBLE HERE AT PEAK HEATING (SEE SAGINAW BAY CONVECTIVE
FIELD)...OVERALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY MOVING
FORWARD/NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE SAME CONVECTIVE VIGOR AS YESTERDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK MIDLEVEL WARMING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED
MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTREMELY LOW. EXPECT A
NICE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN INTO THE 50S
ALL AREAS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING LARGE SCALE PATTERN DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN RECENT DAYS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO REORIENT EASTWARD BEGINNING
ON FRIDAY. LONGWAVE ADJUSTMENT WILL BE ANCHORED BY A STRONG LEAD
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON CARVING INTO THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE PERIPHERY ALIGNED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WHILE THIS WILL BRIEFLY DAMPEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT
FIELD AS THE ENTIRE RIDGE AXIS EASES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY....THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPER/STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY GRADIENT ON THE NORTH PERIPHERY OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN THIS WELL MIXED PROFILE INTO 800 MB TEMPERATURES
RESIDING IN THE 10C RANGE...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS PREDOMINATELY IN THE
LOWER 80S. WEAK MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPILLING EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WILL SCRAPE THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB
TOWARD THE END OF THE HEATING CYCLE. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS 300-400 J/KG OF MUCAPE EMERGES
IN A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CREST THE UPPER RIDGE
ARCING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL LIKELY COMMENCE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION RESIDING THROUGH THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE DAY...BEFORE EVENTUALLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST ARRAY OF MODEL
GUIDANCE HOLDING FIRM IN PROJECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HOLD TO OUR
NORTH AS IT ALIGNS EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PRIMARY BUT WEAKENING
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. A LOWER PROBABILITY CERTAINLY EXISTS GIVEN
THE SETUP FOR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT TO CLIP AT LEAST THE TRI-CITIES/
THUMB SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING...WORTHY OF A SMALL POP. REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY INCREMENTALLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REAMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ASSUMING
NEARLY FULL INSOLATION AND A STANDARD MIXING PROFILE...THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.
DEEP WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. EXPANSIVE
HEIGHT FALL REGION TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SAME TIME...LOOSELY ORGANIZED CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MEANDERING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BEGIN THE GRADUAL TREK NORTHEAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREE ON WHAT DEGREE THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL
MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING LARGER SCALE WESTERN TROUGH. 12Z GFS
LOCKS ON MORE AGGRESSIVELY...DRIVING AN ATTENDANT PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. A ECMWF/CANADIAN CONSENSUS ALLOWS FOR MORE
SEPARATION...LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO A CONSIDERABLY LESS DEEP UPSTREAM
LONGWAVE TROUGH...LEAVING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TUESDAY
PERIOD ATTENDANT WITH THE ARRIVING DEEPER HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC MONDAY
SHOULD A THICKER HIGH CLOUD CANOPY EMERGE EARLY...ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH
TO THE WARM LAYER BY THIS POINT STILL SUPPORTS HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER
80S.
MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
WEEK WITH NORTHWEST ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OFF OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AS THIS HIGH SETTLES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL MODERATE BY THIS WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...AND WHILE MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WILL REMAIN DRY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME OVER LAKE HURON. THIS
INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS OVER
THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1236 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AND CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONTINENT... WITH A PROGRESSIVELY NARROWING SHARP RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA... BRACKETED BY A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONTINENT AND A SECOND UPPER LOW PUSHING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GENERAL THEME OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO BE DISSOLVE TO SOME
EXTENT AS IT BROADENS AND PUSHES EAST WHILE DISPLACING THE EASTERN
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL WORK THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST DURING THAT TIME... AND EVENTUALLY EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY MONDAY... BRINGING OUR CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL.. THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO
RELAX AND BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE COURSE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE SPEED WITH WHICH IS DOES SO IS UNCERTAIN
GIVEN A FAIR DEGREE OF DIFFERENCE IN THE GFS... ECMWF... AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS HOLDING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER LOW
IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS MUCH LONGER THAN THE
ECMWF... WHICH RIDES IT NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY FAIRLY QUICKLY.
FOR NOW... WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST... WHICH MEANS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER
PERIODS BEYOND MONDAY IS FAIRLY LOW. TEND TO PREFER THE SOMEWHAT
FASTER FRONTAL ARRIVAL ADVERTISED BY THE GFS... NAM... AND SREF ON
SUNDAY IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF GIVEN THE STRONG JET CURRENTLY
PUSHING ONSHORE OUT WEST AND THE SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH
TO OUR EAST WHICH IS ALREADY STARTING TO APPEAR.
FOR TONIGHT... MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN CWFA... WITH THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUING TO
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SHIFT
NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT... BUT WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME ACTIVITY BEFORE THAT OCCURS WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG REMAINING IN PLACE AND SOME HIGHER RH VALUES NEAR THE
ELEVATED LFC FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN NEAR
THAT AREA OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... SO KEPT
SOME POPS IN FOR THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... BY SATURDAY
WE SHOULD SEE THE WARM SECTOR REALLY WORK INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA... WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER...
WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S THROUGH THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GETTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED EAST BY THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE EVOLUTION AND
EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION... WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM...
GFS... AND ECMWF. HOWEVER... ALL SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE A FAIR
DEGREE TO OUR NORTHWEST... MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING... WITH ITS ATTENDANCE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION
STANDPOINT... THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE TO OUR NORTH... BUT GIVEN TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WE SHOULD HAVE AMPLE MLCAPE IN PLACE
WITH VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG... AS WELL AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS WE WORK INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIMITED HOWEVER... GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND WARM FRONT SO FAR TO OUR NORTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST... AT THIS
POINT... THAT OUR MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE DETAILS
SHOULD CERTAINLY COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY MORNING... WITH PERHAPS SOME SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
COLD POOL PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE DEGREE TO WHICH
THAT OCCURS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON WHETHER REALITY WINDS UP MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS OR ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS... WHICH IS SLOWER
TO KICK THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST... WOULD CERTAINLY SUGGEST
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS WELL OUT OF THE AREA AT THAT POINT... AND
WOULD HAVE COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER FOR US. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...
DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT RATHER
THAN INCLUDE A CHANCE MENTION FOR SOMETHING ON DAY SIX. DID
INCLUDE A MENTION FROM LATER WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY BY
THURSDAY... AS THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS THAT WE WOULD START TO
SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION BY THAT POINT.
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
OUTSIDE OF WEST CENTRAL WI...JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN WI...BUT SHOULD
LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE. VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
KMSP...VFR EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AIRPORT. MUCH STRONGER S-SW WINDS
EXPECTED BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
TRH/CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1225 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE FORECAST CYCLE WITH A LEE TROUGH TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN
15-20 KT BETWEEN 14-15Z AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT QUICKLY WITH
RAPID HEATING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/
UPDATE...PUSHED BACK SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST CWA AS THESE CELLS
ARE TAKING THEIR TIME MAKING THEIR WAY EAST.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHETHER
OR NOT MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL REALIZE ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL WEATHER
SITUATION TONIGHT/TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK A LOT LIKE THE
PAST 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BEING A BIT WINDIER.
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD 1020MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO/IL BORDER AREA...WHILE OFF TO THE WEST A 1006MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND NEAR THE WY/SD
BORDER. IN BETWEEN...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT
MIXING INTO THE 800-750MB LEVEL HAS PROMOTED A BREEZY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH IN WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE GENERALLY LIVED UP TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS COULD FALL A HAIR SHORT OF TARGET VALUES GIVEN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD HIGH CIRRUS COVER. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT WITH
AN EMBEDDED LOW MEANDERING NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER. UPSTREAM...A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
500MB LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...A WELL-
DEFINED LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM EASTERN WY TO
CENTRAL MT IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST REGIONALLY...WITH THIS
WAVE ALREADY KICKING OFF SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS IN THE WY/SD/NE
BORDER AREA.
FOR THE 00Z-12Z NIGHT PERIOD...MADE ONLY ONE CHANGE OF NOTE TO
POPS/WEATHER. INSTEAD OF HAVING SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE 6-HOUR BLOCK FROM 00Z-06Z AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD...OPTED TO SHIFT THIS FORWARD BY 3 HOURS...INSTEAD
HIGHLIGHTING THE 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN ONLY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE
CWA...OR GENERALLY WEST OF A GREELEY-BEAVER CITY LINE. AND ONLY
KEPT THESE CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT AT THAT...AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TARGET THE DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST NEB.
LEANING ON HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...HRRR AND
12Z 4KM WRF-NMM...EXPECTATION IS THAT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FIRING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEB...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS
EAST TOWARD THE CWA. OPTED TO PULL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING OUT
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH IS LINE WITH SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK...BUT DEFINITELY MADE SURE TO KEEP A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR 50 MPH WINDS/PENNY SIZE HAIL IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES
MANAGE TO GET INTO THE CWA. THAT IS OF COURSE NO GUARANTEE THAT IT
WILL GET IN...AND THUS ONLY THE 20 POPS...AS THE HRRR AND ALSO
THE 18Z NAM/12Z GFS JUST BARELY BRING QPF INTO THE EDGE OF THE CWA
BEFORE REALLY FADING IT OUT. JUST DON/T SEE MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT UNLESS FOR SOME REASON A MAJOR EASTWARD-SURGING COLD POOL
GETS GOING...AS BY THE TIME CONVECTION SHOULD GET INTO THE CWA
ANTICIPATE MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO ONLY BE AROUND
500 J/KG...WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 20KT OR LESS. TURNING
TO OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
LOWER LOW TEMPS BY A SOLID 4-5 DEGREES BASED ON TRENDS FROM PAST
FEW NIGHTS...NOW BRINGING MOST OF THE CWA DOWN INTO THE 58-60
RANGE. DESPITE SOUTHERLY BREEZES REMAINING A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...JUST DON/T SEE HOW TEMPS CAN HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S ALL
NIGHT WITHOUT HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
FOR THE FRIDAY DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE AS IT ALREADY WAS...AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENS A BIT AND
BECOMES QUASI ZONAL...AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WELL UP INTO
CANADA...AND THE PARENT UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT DEEPER INTO THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. DESPITE THE DRY FORECAST...WOULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE SHOWER AFFECT A SMALL PORTION
OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING WITH SOME HINT OF 700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AROUND...BUT JUST CANNOT JUSTIFY INSERTING MORE THAN
SILENT VERY LOW POPS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMP-WISE...MADE
ALMOST NO CHANGE WHATSOEVER TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...WITH
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE 87-91 RANGE...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND WITH MIXING ADVERTISED TO
AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL PER NAM SOUNDINGS. IT WILL BE A BIT
WINDIER AS WELL THANKS TO HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF
THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA REALIZING
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30
TO POSSIBLY 35 MPH. ALONG THESE LINES...AND BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
TODAY...LOWERED DEWPOINTS QUITE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
ORDER OF 6-8 DEGREES...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
MIX ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING/MIXING HOURS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING FRIDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD RIDGING...WHILE A TROUGH SITS OVER THE EAST
COAST AND A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC
NW COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL IN PLACE...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST/SERN CONUS...AND LOW PRESSURE
SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEN THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE RIDGE AXIS GETS PUSHED EAST BY THE
PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THINGS STAYING CAPPED OFF WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE
13-16C RANGE. DID INCREASE WINDS A TOUCH ON SATURDAY INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE INCREASE AS SFC LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF NEB/NW KS AREA. AS FAR AS HIGHS GO...HAD TRENDED THEM
UP YESTERDAY...AND WILL KEEP THEM FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH 90S EXPECTED
CWA-WIDE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE MODELS AS WE GET INTO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WHILE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A QUICKER SOLUTION...THERE IS NOT COMPLETE AGREEMENT. AT 12Z
SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE
CENTRAL MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING S/SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AS FAR AS THE LOCATION OF THE
SFC FRONT GOES...BASICALLY RANGES FROM A QUICKER NAM/SREF WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING ROUGHLY A THIRD OF THE WAY IN...TO THE ECMWF WHICH
STILL HAS IT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO WRN KS. THROUGH THE DAY THAT
STORY REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...THE NAM/SREF/GFS ARE ON THE
QUICKER SIDE...SHOWING THE FRONT OUTSIDE THE E/SE CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 00Z MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS A TOUCH BEHIND. THOUGH
CONSIDERED INSERT A SLIGHT POP ACROSS THE FAR EAST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DIDNT WANT TO FLIP FLOP THE FORECAST...AND WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW TO SEE IF THE EC SPEEDS UP...OR THE OTHERS SLOW DOWN. INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE FASTER TREND IN THE
MODELS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...BASICALLY TIGHTENED UP THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. LEFT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND CONSIDERED TAKING PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT COMPLETELY
ACROSS THE NW...BUT WANT TO WAIT AND MAKE SURE THIS TREND STICKS.
CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...INSTABILITY NOT AN
ISSUE...HAVE BETTER FORCING WITH THE FRONT/WAVE...AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS BETTER BUT NOT GREAT. WITH THE
INCREASED CHANCE OF A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
BECOME MORE TRICKY. DID TREND BACK DUE TO THE QUICKER TIMING...WITH
MID 80S IN THE NW TO NEAR 90 IN THE SE...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY
ADDITIONAL TIMING CHANGES WOULD AFFECT THOSE FORECAST HIGHS.
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HINT AT THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE ACTIVITY
STARTING IN THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT WITHOUT BETTER AGREEMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT. A REINFORCING FRONT/SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
BUT DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 40S/LOW 50S BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS AS WE GET INTO WED/THURS...AND
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES TO CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION..AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS POSSIBLY DRIFTING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WANT TO SEE
BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING POPS AT THIS POINT. NOT EXPECTING
BIG CHANGES IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
330 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FAIR AND WARM WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THEN A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH DAYBREAK...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH
RADAR SHOWING THAT SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY HAVE TAPERED
OFF. TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE STILL FAIRLY WIDE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. THIS SAID...DO
EXPECT THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
FOR THE MOST PART...THE GENERAL TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. CONSENSUS QPF AMONG THE NAM/RGEM/GFS ALL REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE HRRR IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE KEYING ON THE LAKE BREEZES SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...BUT IT WAS A BIT OVERDONE YESTERDAY...AND GIVEN THE
DRY AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT THERE WILL BE ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY.
HAVE SOLID CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER TODAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF ROCHESTER. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE A BIT OF A
DIFFERENT STORY. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED NORTH OF
LAKE HURON DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THIS FORECAST TO
DIVE TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND
THIS EVENING. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LAKE WILL HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY. NAM/RAP FORECAST SUGGEST ML CAPES WILL
INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS
COUNTIES. WHILE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...WIND PROFILES FORECAST
SOME WIND SHEAR FROM 925 MB TO 700 MB...SUPPORTING SOME ORGANIZATION
WITH CONVECTION AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUE TO
BE LOW...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK...AND AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. WILL ADD A MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN ZONES/GRIDS/HWO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING. THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD
THE REGION...A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN
NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTION WILL APPROACH EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...SEE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER METRO
AREAS...RANGING TO THE MID-50S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY...AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...AND TRACKS ALONG A SURFACE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A DECENT 30-40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY...AND AT LEAST SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE LOOKING A
DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.
IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE...ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CONCENTRATING THE BEST
OVERALL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TIMING-WISE...A
CONSENSUS OF THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL COME BETWEEN MID SATURDAY MORNING
AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FASTER AND MORE INCONSISTENT
00Z GFS DISCARDED AS A FAST OUTLIER. WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT... WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS INDICATED
OTHERWISE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN PLAY...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 80 IN THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO
GRADUALLY FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF A
WARMER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE A RETURN TO QUIETER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BOTH AFTERNOONS...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THEREFORE
A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO MIDSUMMERLIKE
WARMTH...AS WELL AS A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C AND +16C ON SUNDAY AND THE +16C
TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY...EXPECT SURFACE READINGS TO REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WHEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN OUR NORMALLY WARMEST LOCATIONS.
COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE
FOR FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SULTRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL
STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC-BASED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VACILLATE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...HAVE JUST KEPT BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS IN PLAY FOR BOTH DAYS
FOR NOW.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY...
THOUGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL /MID-UPPER 70S/
WITH 850 MB READINGS ONLY FALLING BACK TO THE +10C TO +14C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS FAIRLY DRY IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND THERE IS A LIGHT BUT DETECTABLE WIND OVERNIGHT...SO
EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES SEE THE FOG POTENTIAL AS MINIMAL AT ALL
TAF LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT MORE STABLE IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT LIMITING
INSTABILITY. FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUF/ROC/IAG/JHW)...EXPECT TODAY
TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE. ART WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE...WITH
THE AFTERNOON PRESENTING A PERIOD OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS ON
MID-AFTERNOON TIMING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY PASS ACROSS OR
NEAR ART BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...ARES OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE...AND WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS/WAVES WILL FALL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE ON EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
349 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY
AND TONIGHT THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THE OFFSHORE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUE INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CURRENTLY ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN VIRGINIA ARE
DISSIPATING AS FORECAST BY THE HRRR MODEL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE STATE TODAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FAVOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AT
THIS TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY
CAPPED AT 645 MB DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A RISING HEIGHT
FIELD. THIS CAP WILL STRONGLY INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SEA BREEZE SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
80S INLAND AND AROUND 80 BEACHES UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE FORECAST TO BE
SEASONABLY COOL WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND. AT
THE BEACHES LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PRODUCE MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL BE DRY AND DOMINATED BY
HIGH PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. A WEAK UPR TROUGH OVER THE GULF
COAST WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD SLOWLY EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK...
AND BEGIN TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN E NC. RECENT ECMWF BRINGS
IN UNSETTLED WEATHER A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER THINKING...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 08/00Z GEM MODEL. GFS IS A SLOW
OUTLIER SO DID NOT GIVE THIS SOLN MUCH WEIGHT.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS MON WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRES MIGRATING EASTWARD. HTS BEGIN TO FALL
MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS UPR LOW MOVES EAST WITH ATTENDANT WEAK SFC
REFLECTION. ADDED CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACCORDANCE...
WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES TUE
NIGHT INTO WED AS PWATS INC TO NEARLY 2 INCHES...AND WITH BETTER
UPR LEVEL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INC. ADDED THUNDER TO THE
GRIDS AS WELL...THOUGH WEAK SHEAR WILL YIELD UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO WED AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND AS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO ADVANCE OUT OF THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A STABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN NC. EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT PGV WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FORECAST SIMILAR THAT WHICH OCCURRED THERE LAST NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUE...THOUGH COULD BE SOME
EARLY MORNING BR AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS INCREASING.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS UPR TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT THIS MORNING THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10
KT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP IN THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF LOOKOUT AND REMAINING 10 KT
SOUTH. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 6 TO 8
SECONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SW FLOW WILL INC LATE SAT AS HIGH PRES RETREATS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB SCA HOWEVER...GENERALLY
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. THESE WINDS WILL LINGER
INTO SUN AS THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SE COAST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET...LESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WINDS COULD DIMINISH A BIT MON AND TUE AS SFC HIGH RIDGES
CLOSER TO SHORE...THOUGH WILL REMAIN S TO SW.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
156 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH MIDDAY. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM THURSDAY...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROUGH STILL HANGING OUT ALONG THE
EAST COAST WITH THE 250MB JET OVER NC AND VA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DPVA PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NC BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
FRIDAY. THE SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH VA ARE BEING DRIVEN BY THIS
DPVA AND LINGERING INSTABILITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THEY WILL MAKE IN INTO CENTRAL NC.
NEVERTHELESS...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDED THE TIME THROUGH 06Z GIVEN
THE FORECASTED TRACK OF VORTICITY MAX AS THE TROUGH BEINGS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE. THE 21Z HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE SHOWERS
MAKING IT TO THE VA/NC BORDER BY 06Z BUT FALLING APART AS IT DOES
SO.
SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 22Z AND THE 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW.AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA... BRINGING A MUCH WARMER
AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKS END AND MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE
SFC RIDGE STILL CENTERED TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR
MOISTURE PROFILE AS TODAY...BUT WARMING BETWEEN H5-H7 WILL CAP
DEVELOPING DAYTIME CU. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS UNDER
THIS RIDGE AND GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 60 AS
THE SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND WITH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST. EXPECT VERY SHALLOW DAYTIME
CU AND VERY WARM TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
ON SUNDAY WE`LL SEE AN ELONGATED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER NE
TX AND LA GRADUALLY DRIFTING NE ALONG THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS OUR
AREA...BUT DRY AND WARM MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PRECLUDE PRECIP. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...SO WE`LL SEE
HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM...
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HEIGHTS
IS NOTED ACROSS TX AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LOW
THAT MARGINALLY CLOSES OFF. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME AND
THE TX/GULF LOW OPENS AND LIFTS NORTH AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. EVENTUALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WHICH REACHES THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY AND THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER FEATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF UPPER LOW AND THE TIMING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON DAYS 6/7 ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DECREASES WED
AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
WEST WHERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT AND GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. WILL CAP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES. BUT WITH PW
VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND AT LEAST SOME
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY HIGHER. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY REDUCING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDINESS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE CONTRACTS FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND WITH HIGHS
NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM FRIDAY...
ASIDE FROM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF PRE-DAWN
MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KRWI...AND A PRECEDING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A VFR SHOWER ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SOME
PREVAILING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 13-20Z...THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.
LOOKING AHEAD: RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE
WARMING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A
SLOW-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WAVE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MON-TUE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC/NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1237 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME
CENTERED OFFSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
VIRGINIA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST BUT IS FORECAST BY THE HRRR MODEL TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING EASTERN NC. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POPPING UP BEFORE DAWN BUT WITH FAIRLY STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
WINDS PRODUCING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOWERED MINS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S INLAND (LOWER
60S COAST) AND THIS LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDS EAST AS BROAD
TROF PUSHES OFF THE COAST. AN ISOLD SHOWER CUD DEVELOP ALONG
SEABREEZE BUT MAINLY WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT UNDER THE NW
FLOW ALOFT. DOWNSLOPE AND RISING THICKNESSES BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S INLAND OF THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 FOR OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...WHEN COMPARED WITH HPC SURFACE FEATURES THE 00Z
ECMWF LINES UP VERY WELL SO USED IT FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WARM
AND DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST AND
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. ON
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE GETS ERODED FROM WEST BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GULF STATES ADVANCING EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE
PLAINS. THE CUTOFF AND TROF WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A WEAK TROF
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP ADVANCE A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A STABLE ARIMASS IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN NC. EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT PGV WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FORECAST SIMILAR THAT WHICH OCCURRED THERE LAST NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE/
AS OF 2 PM THU...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS ARE IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE WITH 13 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
BEACHES. THIS SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY LEADING TO A LOWER
RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE NORTHERN AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE/
AS OF 2 PM THU...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS IN STORE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BECOME SOUTH FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...INCREASING
TO 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY. SEAS RUNNING 2-4 FEET.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/JME
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/BTC/JME/HSA
MARINE...CTC/BTC/JME/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
TODAY...THEN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DAKOTAS...AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MINNESOTA.
REGARDING THE DEEP TROUGH...500MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 2 BELOW
NORMAL. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PROFILER AND RADAR DATA
SHOWED AN 850MB JET OF 30-40 KT FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND WARMTH. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED
850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C IN THIS JET AREA...COMPARED TO 14C AT DLH AND
LA CROSSE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS IS QUITE INTERESTING...WITH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE...I.E. VALUES GREATER THAN 1 INCH...SITTING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. VALUES DROP TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER
MUCH OF KANSAS...MISSOURI AND IOWA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER
MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MINNESOTA WHERE VALUES ARE 1.25 TO
1.5 INCHES. THIS MAXIMA OF MOISTURE IS FUELING CONVECTION THAT HAS
FIRED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL DPVA FORCED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE
ARE ALSO ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PROGGED TO
FLATTEN OUT SOME...IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME FORM OF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST BECAUSE
OF THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE IS CRITICAL TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SINCE IT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE...GRADUALLY SPREADING CAPPING NORTHWARD
AND BRING IN THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SEEN TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION NORTH OF I-94
WHERE 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE A TREND THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE CONVECTION TO LIFT
NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 WHERE DPVA
FROM THE SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH CONTINUED 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
BUILDING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATING THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE
TRACK. IN FACT...THE OVERALL FORCING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FAIRLY
WEAK...AND AS SUCH KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20-40 RANGE.
SHOULD WE GET SOME STORMS IN OUR AREA...MAINLY JUST TAYLOR COUNTY
WOULD HAVE A SHOT TO SEE SEVERE CONVECTION...IN THE 21-03Z WINDOW
WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE QUIET WITH THE MAX
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BREAK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
15-16C BY 18Z...DRY GROUND AND A BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 80S...WITH MOST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A FEW READINGS AROUND 90 ARE POSSIBLE TOO. THE
COMBINATION OF A WARMER DAY TODAY AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE STAYING UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A WARM
SECTOR FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PROGGED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WELL AGREED UPON TO AT MOST IN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS MEANS ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A SLIM SHOT OF
SOMETHING COMING INTO SOUTHEAST MN VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY...IF THE FRONT CAN CONVECT AND CONVECTION CAN SPREAD EAST
FAST ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...WITH THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER THE AREA (LOWEST ON SATURDAY)...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. 850MB TEMPS OF 17-19C ON BOTH DAYS...THE DRY AIRMASS AND DRY
GROUND...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALL FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
MIXING. SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
ALTHOUGH 850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WOULD NORMALLY NOT SUPPORT
RECORD LEVELS...ONLY BEING 1-1.5 ABOVE NORMAL...LA CROSSE AND
ROCHESTER RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 93-96 RANGE. THEREFORE...WE MAY
GET CLOSE TO RECORDS. ANTICIPATING LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE
60S...AIDED BY THE DRY AIRMASS. DID STAY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS/GROUND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST. WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO PARALLEL THE UPPER
FLOW...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN MORE TO EITHER
RIGHT ON THE FRONT OR POST-FRONTAL. THERE ARE DECENT MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS THAT COME INTO THE AREA...ABOUT 50-70 METERS IN 12
HOURS AT 500MB. THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
SURGING UP TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT PLUS THE INCREASING
LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE AND
OELWEIN. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS MEAGER...DUE TO THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
POST-FRONTAL. IN FACT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE 0-6KM SHEAR
IS ONLY 20-25KT. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5-4 KM AND MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ARE NOT FAVORABLE EITHER FOR SEVERE. MAYBE AT MOST WE
END UP WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 60S
ON TAP...PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE 08.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
AND GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIAL
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AT 12Z MONDAY SHOULD HEAD UP INTO ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY BY
TUESDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AGAIN
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINTAINED 60 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS. IN FACT...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE LOCATIONS LIKE
ROCHESTER COULD END UP DRY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR...ALONG WITH
SUBSIDENCE...THEN COMES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DID
MAINTAIN SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS UP...BUT LATER FORECASTS
MAY BE ABLE TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD
END UP AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY...DUE TO
850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C TO 6-10C. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOMINATES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. UPPER
RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD UP INTO OUR AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO AT LEAST
NORMAL BY THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SHAPING
UP AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...LIKE THIS WEEKEND...WELL AGREED UPON
BY THE LAST COUPLE ECMWF...GFS AND CFS RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY
1120 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES FRIDAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY STILL APPEAR
TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...SO HAVE KEPT THE TAFS DRY
ON FRIDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS THIS FRONT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
KICKS IN. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WITH SOME GUSTS UP IN THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1027 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
LATE MORNING FOG WAS MAINLY OVER EAST COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST
MASS...BUT IS TRENDING TO DISSIPATION. ONE AREA MOVED NORTH INTO
NANTUCKET RIGHT AFTER THEY CLEARED FROM A PREVIOUS FOG AREA. WE
EXPECT THIS SECOND ONE TO BREAK/THIN BY MIDDAY BUT FOG CAN BE A
TOUGH CHARACTER AT TIMES. WHERE THE FOG HAS BROKEN...TEMPS SHOT
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...SO EXPECTED MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK
LIKE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
BOSTON WINDS WERE SOUTH MID MORNING BUT THE WEAK FLOW SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR A TURN TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL. WE DELAYED THE SHIFT A LITTLE
FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST BUT OTHERWISE HAVE A SEA BREEZE ALONG
THE MASS EAST COAST.
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH FORECAST CAPES IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND LI/S -3 TO -5. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
BOTH LOW AND HIGH EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET ARRIVING OVER EASTERN NY AT
18Z AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 21Z-03Z AND DEPARTING 03Z-06Z.
PER THE ALBANY MORNING SOUNDING...AND WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30
KNOTS AT 850 MB DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE 1000 FEET. WOULD EXPECT
MULTICELLS/SHORT LINES WITH POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A FEW BOWS. AREA
OF GREATEST CONCERN IS SOUTHERN NH/CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASS AND
SOMEWHAT LESSER IN NORTHERN CT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
SUNSET WILL MEAN THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OF US AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DURING 00Z-06Z. SO EXPECTING A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A STALLED COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF
LEFTOVER CLOUDS...SO NOT AS CONCERNED FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY. THINKING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT
THIS TIME WILL BE ACROSS CT...BUT THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE JUST
YET. USED A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPERATURE INCREASE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL START OF NEXT WEEK.
* FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MID-WEEK.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR START OF
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TIMING FOR THE
SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL AS STRONG COLD FRONT FOR MID WEEK AS THERE ARE
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
DETAILS...
MODELS/PATTERN...
00Z GUIDANCE IS IN MODEST AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
BY TUESDAY. NOTICED THE ECMWF IS A TAD MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS
RUN COMPARED TO PREV AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. BELIEVE SHORTWAVE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL INTERRUPT THE FLOW BY TUES INTO
WED. DYNAMIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH WED/THURSDAY HOWEVER
STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES AND TIMING AS THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTER OF
THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF THE LESS AMPLIFIED. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS
FORM A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD EFFECT THE
REGION FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH NW TO SE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF THE FRONT...SO EXPECT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ESP
ACROSS CT AND SOUTHERN RI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND BUILD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...HAVE LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL. TEMPS FOR SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WITH COOLER COAST DUE TO SEA BREEZES. LOW TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND HPC ALL AGREE WITH RIDGING OCCURRING AT THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY
SLIDES OFF SHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS ON TIMING OF DYNAMIC COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN TIMING DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE. BELIEVE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THERE AREA STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE STILL ON EXACT TIMING. UNCERTAIN ON EXACT EXIT TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY DYNAMIC SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THUNDER MENTIONING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IN SOUTHEAST MA AND 1/4 MILE VSBYS ON NANTUCKET
SHOULD IMPROVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
NH/W MA/N CT WITH BRIEF LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE
STRONGER TSTMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR IN GENERAL...BUT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS S NH/NW MA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E AND NE MA/S CENTRAL NH. S OF
THERE...MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLD
TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR
SEA BREEZE OCCURRING MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY 430-7 PM. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WOULD DISSIPATE BY 8
AM.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER 18Z. TSTMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTM DIMINISHES AFTER 02Z. ALSO A CHANCE
OF IFR IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS.
MON INTO TUES...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SAT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT VSBYS AND
CAUSE GUSTY WINDS SAT NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE BELOW SCA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS WILL
WILL INCREASE SEAS TO SCA. EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP AND GUSTY WINDS TO
OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
951 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY HAVE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS N FL WITH A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FAR WESTERN
GOFMEX. AT THE SAME TIME THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC. THESE SYSTEMS ARE COMBINING
TO PRODUCE A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS S FL AND AIDING IN THE
TRANSPORT OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR CONVEVTION TO FIRE UP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY BROWARD AND PALM
BEACH COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE LAKE OKEE REGION. THE HRRR WHICH
PERFORMS QUITE WELL IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT FROM GLADES TO CENTRAL
COLLIER COUNTIES BY NOON AND THEN BUILDING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE DISCUSSION. SO THE
EMPHASIS WILL BE GENERALLY BE INLAND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY ZONE BUT ALL IN ALL WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE COULD GET AT LEAST
SOME CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING DOES SHOW SOME
DRYING OCCURRED IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH IN TURN WILL ALSO HELP IN THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE ALONG WITH THE POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
AVIATION...A VRY MOIST SW WND FLOW ALOFT OVER S FLA ATTM WITH SOME
SHRA DVLPG OFF AND ON OVER THE INTERIOR WHICH HAV BEEN MOVG NE AND
INTO THE ATLC. ALL TERMINALS VFR THRU 16Z THOUGH VCSH PSBL SE AND AT
KAPF WITH VRY BRIEF MVFR CIG. AFT 16Z E COAST TERMINALS VCTS WITH
TSRA PSBL THRU 00Z THEN VCSH. GUSTY WNDS PSBL WITH TSRA AND LCLLY
HVY RA. SFC WNDS SSW-SW < 10 KTS WITH A PSBL SSE SEA BRZE DVLPG AFT
14Z. AT KAPF...VCSH INITIALLY AND TSRA PSBL BUT WILL AMD AS NEEDED
WITH VCTS AFT 14Z. SFC WND CALM ATTM BUT WL BCM SSW-SW ARND 10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
IT REMAINS VERY HUMID THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND TOWARDS GLADES COUNTY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
KEYS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MIAMI. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
GULF...TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN...AROUND THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN/FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINED ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF...AND A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF TODAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY TODAY.
SO DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE HELPING SPARK CONVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE PUSHING RIGHT UP AGAINST SOUTH
FLORIDA..THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION AND NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDINESS TODAY COULD LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY A LITTLE...AND
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD HAVE A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...AND TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 90 BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THE
REGION TODAY...SO BUMPED UP POPS TO 70 TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF...AND AROUND 60 PERCENT SOUTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY TROPICAL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND PWATS AOB 2 INCHES. SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS. STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THE SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO EXIT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...SO
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.
AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF MOVES
BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. SO THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD...LOWERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION COULD ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIED. AN OVERALL DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
RISE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD
APPROACH THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST...WITH MAINLY LOW
90S ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO ROTATE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR
THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF.
SO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION WILL DICTATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK. THIS FEATURE
MAY HELP ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...POPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO AT LOW END CHANCE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION...
A VRY MOIST SW WND FLOW ALOFT OVER S FLA ATTM WITH
SOME SHRA DVLPG OVR THE FLA STRAITS AND SE FLA WITH A LRG AREA OF
SHRA MOVG UPON THE W CNTRL FLA COAST AND MOVG TWD LK OKEE. ALL
TERMINALS VFR THRU 16Z THOUGH VCSH PSBL SE AND AT KAPF WITH VRY
BRIEF MVFR CIG. AFT 16Z E COAST TERMINALS VCTS XCPT PROB30 AT KPBI
/KFLL AND KFXE WITH VCTS ELSWHR E COAST. TSRA PSBL THRU 00Z THEN
VCSH. GUSTY WNDS PSBL WITH TSRA AND LCLLY HVY RA. SFC WNDS SSW-SW
< 10 KTS WITH A PSBL SSE SEA BRZE DVLPG AFT 14Z. AT KAPF...VCSH
INITIALLY AND TSRA PSBL BUT WILL AMD AS NEEDED WITH VCTS AFT 14Z.
SFC WND CALM ATTM BUT WL BCM SSW-SW ARND 10 KTS.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
OVER ALL THE LOCAL WATERS...AS THEY SWING FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION TODAY TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS
WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 75 89 75 / 70 50 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 78 90 78 / 60 40 40 20
MIAMI 90 78 90 78 / 60 40 40 20
NAPLES 87 76 90 76 / 70 40 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
546 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND ENOUGH MIXING HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS FROM NARROWING. SO REMOVED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING. WHAT PRECIPITATION THERE WAS HAS FINALLY ENDED SO WILL
NOT NEED TO EXTEND ANY CHANCES INTO THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...HOW HOT DOES IT GET/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
SATURDAY...AND WINDS/HOW COOL DOES IT GET/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STILL A TROUGH...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE...AND TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT JET LEVEL WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY BETTER.
AT MID LEVELS...WOULD HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO THE GFS SINCE IT IS
DOING THE BEST WITH DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ECMWF
FOLLOWED BY THE NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE
WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. ECMWF WAS ESPECIALLY DOING WELL WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH POSITION OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION REMAINED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVED FURTHER EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER/NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN GOVERNED BY MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES. MOST MODEL OUTPUT...EVEN THE HRRR AND RUC...HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE FOR AS A LONG AS POSSIBLE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION/DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE AROUND...MAY
AFFECT THE EXTENT OF THE FOG AS WELL.
MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR UPSTREAM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
REMAINS WELL WEST. WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR
WEST. GRADIENT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS BREEZY TO WINDY. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. NWP IS THE COOLEST
GUIDANCE OF THE BUNCH WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING WARMER
TEMPERATURES. ALL DEPENDS HOW FAST DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION LASTS PLUS WHEN WHATEVER STRATUS DEVELOPS ALSO
BURNS OFF. DID TONE DOWN MAXES IN THE WEST A FEW DEGREES BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD COVER AND MADE THE EAST THE WARMEST.
SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT ON MAX TEMPERATURES AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE HANDLING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. HOWEVER DUE TO UPSTREAM RIDGING AND
NCEP DISCUSSIONS...DO BELIEVE THAT SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH AND MAYBE EVEN SLOWER. THERE LOOKS TO BE STRONGER MID/UPPER
RIDGING BUT THE LEE TROUGH MAYBE FURTHER WEST WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE WINDS. BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS THIS THE BEST
AT THIS TIME. ABOVE REASONING...850 TO 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND
BLENDING OF VARIOUS NWP/2M GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. REFER BELOW FOR
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
WE LOOK TO STAY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST +15C.
ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HOT...AN ISOLATED UPDRAFT IS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE EARLIER GUIDANCE PER EXPLANATION GIVEN ABOVE.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z AND THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE LOOKS NOW TO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...
IT STILL LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CINH.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. RATHER
IMPRESSIVE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OCCUR AND A BRIEFLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AS WELL. IF THIS WERE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WOULD SAY THAT
THERE WOULD BE A DECENT CHANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE A RAPID/BRIEF BURST OF WINDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
SOME DECREASE IN THE WINDS BY 18Z.
EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCE IN MODEL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE EARLIER
GUIDANCE WITH A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT WITH TONIGHTS LATER GUIDANCE.
NAM IS BY FAR THE COOLEST. FRONT LOOKS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY
18Z. BASED ON THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND THE COLD AIR I SEE
BEHIND IT UPSTREAM...DID TREND THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
EARLY MODEL RUNS FROM THE EVENING HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE NAM BY FAR
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE 06Z NAM MAINTAINED THIS. HOWEVER...
OTHER MODELS NOW HAVE LESS PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE
IT FURTHER SOUTH. SREF AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS AND MAKES SENSE
SINCE THE AREA LOOKS FAR REMOVED FROM THE MAIN LIFT AND
INSTABILITY. SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ABOVE REASONING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE NORTH
OF THIS FRONT AND WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CWA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS...MAY
SEE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THE GFS BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHERN TRACK
WOULD PLACE THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT OVERALL
FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS CONTINUED
HEATING TAKES PLACE...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WHATEVER THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP THEY LOOK TO STAY TO THE WEST OF BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
PER REASONING ABOVE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE
TROUGH COULD BE FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD MAKE LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. IF ECMWF WORKS OUT THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WOULD BE WEAK
ALONG WITH THE WINDS AS WELL. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE RATHER
LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED TO OUR WEST WHICH MAY CAUSE
DEWPOINTS TO BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AT THIS TIME CHOSE
TO NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IF
HAD TO WOULD SAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONDITIONS TO BE MET WOULD
OVER THE COLORADO PORTION OF OUR AREA. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT IN HWO AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER/PM
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
619 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE 08.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A STRONG 130 KT JET PUSHING ASHORE
ACROSS KMFR (MEDFORD, OR) WITH A WEAKER JET STREAK YET CYCLONICALLY
CURVED FROM KOTX (SPOKANE, WA) NORTHWARD TO CWEG (EDMONTON, AB). DOWNSTREAM,
AN 80 KT JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS CWPL (PICKLE LAKE, ON) AND TURNING INTO
MORE ZONAL FLOW FROM KOHX (NASHVILLE, TN) TO KRNK (BLACKSBURG, VA) TO
KMHX (NEWPORT, NC). AT 500 HPA, COLD AIR OF -26 DEG C TO -23 DEG C EXTENDED
FROM KSLE (SALEM, OR) TO CYZT (PORT HARDY, BC). FAIRLY SEASONAL 500
HPA TEMPERATURES OF -11 TO -10 DEG C EXTENDED FROM KABR (ABERDEEN, SD)
TO KDDC (DODGE CITY, KS). ANOTHER COLD POOL W/ H5 TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND
-21 DEG C TO -19 DEG C WAS OBSERVED ACROSS QUEBEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH. AT 700 & 850 HPA, MOST NOTICEABLE WERE
THE TWO COLD POOLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE CANADA. AT THE
SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S DEG F SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DEG F
WERE TAKING THE LONG WAY BEHIND A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER VIA
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS SW KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THIS MORNING:
ALL IS NOT QUIET ON THE WESTERN KANSAS FRONT. HAVE TWO FORECAST CONCERNS
THAT HAVE STARTED TO APPEAR/TREND ON A WSR-88D MOSAIC MAP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE COLORADO & THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THOSE TWO SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FOG AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE TAKING THE "LONG WAY" (AKA ADVECTION) ACROSS THE HIGH TEXAS PLAINS
WHEREAS DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ARE LOWER
(MID TO UPPER 50S DEG F VERSUS AROUND 60 DEG F TOWARDS KDHT). NAM BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND BUFKIT FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P`S SUGGEST
THAT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE
BORDER. SREF VISIBILITY PROGS ALSO SUGGEST HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR HAS BACKED
OFF ON FOG IN RECENT RUNS SO THIS MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN TERMS
OF AERIAL COVERAGE. THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE.
SECOND CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ROUGHLY
WEST OF DODGE CITY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL RUNS FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST
DECENT COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY/QPF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CAUSED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 800 TO 700 HPA LAYER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS AS A RESULT. BOTH
CORES OF THE WRF ARE ALSO SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
TODAY:
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE ON THE BANAL SIDE.
THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TYPICALLY DOES DURING THE
DAY. MIXING ROUGHLY TO 750 HPA AND RESULTANT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWNWARD
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 80S DEG F). AFTER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
CLEARS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...HAVE MID 60S DEG F IN THE GRIDS. A LACK OF SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE
PERTURBATIONS/500 HPA RIDGING/WEAK JET DYNAMICS DURING THE EVENING WILL
RESULT IN 0 PERCENT POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE START OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE WARM AND WINDY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND +14 TO +16C 700MB TEMPERATURES SPREADS EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY
SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE FURTHER EAST 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 20S. 25C 850 MB TEMPERATURE MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS STILL YIELDED HIGHS
AROUND 90 DEGREES SO THE BASED ON THE NEW 850-700MB TEMPERATURES
AT 00Z SUNDAY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE DAY.
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
NOW FORECAST BY THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS STILL
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS/NEAR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS BUT
MID LEVELS WILL BE COOLING BY 00Z MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. BASED ON THIS COOLING, LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND MOISTURE/FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WILL INTRODUCE CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY LATE SUNDAY AND
THEN EXPAND CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY
EVENING RANGES FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 30 TO 40
KNOTS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IT DOES APPEAR THEY WILL HAVE
TO POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BY LATE DAY. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT NOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED A FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS RUN. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET HOWEVER SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE FURTHER GFS SUGGESTED. AS A RESULT WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE WARMER CONSALL MOS AND 850MB 00Z MONDAY ECMWF TEMPERATURES AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. HIGHS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ONLY TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PERSIST
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BASED ON 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION, 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A
GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE 850MB MOISTURE AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT I310
AND I315 LEVELS HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS LATE DAY.
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE WESTERLY
FLOW MID TO LATE WEEK. EACH OF THESE WAVES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THEY
PASS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING, TRACK
OR STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE FEATURES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE
LATER PERIODS.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK STILL LOOK TO BE MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S EACH DAY. CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK MAY
HOLD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THE 850MB MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AS 25 TO 35 KT WINDS LOCATED NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. VFR CIGS IN THE 7000 TO 10000 FT LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z AS AN AREA OF WEAKENING ELEVATED CONVECTION,
ASSOCIATED WITH 800-700 WAA AND FRONTOGENESIS, CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 65 93 67 / 10 0 10 10
GCK 88 65 97 67 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 87 65 99 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 87 65 97 66 / 30 0 10 0
HYS 88 66 94 69 / 10 0 10 10
P28 89 66 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1003 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
AT 15Z...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MANITOBA...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...AND A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE FA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE
WAS AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THAT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S AND AND LOW 70S...AND
THERE WERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED
WAA EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD INTO NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND WERE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. THERE WERE SOME MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA...TOO.
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF THE FA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...BUT STILL LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE WESTERN THREE FOURTHS OF THE FA. RECENT MODELS HAVE
BEEN BACKING OFF ON PCPN FOR THE FA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM. HOWEVER...DID NOT WANT TO
BACK OFF ON AFTERNOON POPS TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE CLEARING
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT...WHICH MAY HELP DESTABILIZE MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY DUE TO
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE CLOUD COVER TREND AND ITS POTENTIAL TO LIMIT THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
UPDATE...LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL WI ATTM. THIS PCPN IS DIMINISHING AS THE SUN COMES
UP. NOTHING DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS LINE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION DRY AND UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND ADVECT IN A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND MOVE EWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY WITH
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVE NE LATE THIS EVENING AND SKIES SCATTER OUT BY EARLY SAT
MORNING. LLWS WILL DEVELOP FROM BRD TO DLH TO HYR TONIGHT AS A
STRONG LLJ INITIATES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...07Z SFC PRESSURE PLOT PLACED A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WAS ORGANIZING IN SE MANITOBA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG
THE FRONT WITH RECENT DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF WAA. STORMS ARE ALSO GETTING SUPPORT FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING EVEN
AFTER FROPA AS WAA WILL CONTINUE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF FLATTENS OUT
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY OVER THE
FA WITH GOOD SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H85 COMPUTED LI`S TO -4C
AND MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND ITS AFFECT ON DIURNAL
HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE ZONES/GRIDS. SEE THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FOR DETAILS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AFTER 06Z. MEANWHILE...SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING
THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS
FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS AND IN THE VCNTY OF LLJ CROSS
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD
WHERE AN ADDITIONAL SFC BOUNDARY WILL STALL AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
IN FAR SW ONTARIO. PCPN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z AS LLJ
MOVES OFF TO THE E.
WAA CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING/SPREADING INTO THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STUCK JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN FOR SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER HOT WITH 80S EXPECTED...A BIT COOLER ALONG THE N
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR CKC/GNA.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A POTENT UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND
COMBINE WITH A SFC COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN ND. A STRONG 850MB LLJ...ROUGHLY 50
KTS...WILL ADVECT IN A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN MN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
EWD...THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXES. MAINLY ALONG A PATH JUST SOUTH OR
PARALLEL TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NRN MN. AREAS TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED AS A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EWD DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH N-CENTRAL MN...AND MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG...0-6 KM AGL BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KT...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PWATS OVER
1.5 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID/STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW LIGHT COLD
ADVECTION SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES MONDAY.
SO...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN CHC/SLGT CHC POPS DURING THE DAY AND INTO
MON NIGHT. A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCES DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
NW WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY
WARM...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 80S...AND EVEN A FEW LOW 90S. ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
TEMPS ON TUES AND WED ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS FORECAST GOING INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 77 59 82 60 / 60 20 10 10
INL 80 56 87 63 / 60 10 10 30
BRD 85 64 89 69 / 20 10 10 10
HYR 84 62 85 63 / 50 10 10 10
ASX 80 61 85 61 / 60 20 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM....MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION INSERTED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 254 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
THINGS HAVE NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS AND CONCERNS IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... IN THE SHORTER TERM
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CONVECTION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTS OVER THE THE REGION WITH SOME
ELEVATED CAPE STILL IN PLACE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST
FLATTENS AND IS KICKED EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
WE SHOULD SEE THE MAIN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE GET DISPLACED TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT... WITH WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO WORK IN AT
LOW LEVELS. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY PCPN TO END TONIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR A DRY SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
ONE ANOTHER TO SOME EXTENT... WITH SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES STILL
EVIDENT BEYOND MONDAY... ALTHOUGH LESS THAN WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND MAINLY
JUST BLEND WITH THE LATEST MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS THAT BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW
AGREE ON A SOMEWHAT SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION... BOTH
WOULD IMPLY BETTER AND MORE FOCUSED LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA AS A STRONG UPPER JET WRAPS AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
FOR TODAY... CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWFA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD WARM
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E
PROGS SHOW CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR ESSENTIALLY THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... ALTHOUGH UNTIL SUNDAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
IS THE ONLY TIME FRAME WHEN IT LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH SOME LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND SATURATION NEAR THE LFC. THE WARM SECTOR REALLY
SURGES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY... AND TEMPERATURES AOA
90 DEGREES STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR MOST OF THE AREA... WITH
SOME MID 90S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF
MIXING. WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA WE SHOULDN/T HAVE ANY PCPN TO WORRY ABOUT... AND ANY DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST BASED UPON EXPECTED MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY... SO SOME FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM TEMPERATURES... WITH MAY HELP KEEP IT FROM
FEELING TOO UNCOMFORTABLE.
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING... ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARD THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTENSITY A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY
SUNDAY EVENING... WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE
QUITE JUICY... WITH PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH AOA 1500 J/KG AND QUITE POSSIBLY ABV 2500 J/KG. THE BEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STARTING TO ARRIVE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA... AND IT APPEARS WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION... PERHAPS INITIALLY AS
SUPERCELLS BUT WITH A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE SEEMING LIKELY
GIVEN A GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CAP THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED TO OUR
NORTH... WHERE WINDS WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BEING
BACKED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER... THERE WOULD STILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR A
TORNADO FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA INITIALLY PRIOR TO ANY
TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION. BUT... THE PRIMARY
THREATS STILL LOOK TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME PCPN MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ALLOWED FOR DRY WEATHER
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHRA DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD POOL LINGER IN THE AREA. THE GFS HAS
QUICKENED ITS DEPARTURE IN COMPARISON TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED ITS DEPARTURE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
EXPECTATION THAT THINGS WOULD MAINLY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
ONLY A PORTION OF THE AREA... OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR
NOW. HOWEVER... DID BRING BACK A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS WE LOOK TO GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH AND SEE SOME RETURN FLOW SETUP ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
BAND OF SHRA/TSRA JUST EAST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BASICALLY BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE OVER ERN NODAK IS ON ITS WAY TOWARD LAKE OF THE WOODS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...DO NOT FEEL CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIP THE REST OF
THIS TAF PERIOD ARE VERY GOOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH WEAK
LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORECAST BY THE RAP TO MOVE ACROSS MN THIS
MORNING. THE RAP...ALONG WITH THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH GENERATING SOME SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH
RADAR RETURNS NOW VIRTUALLY GONE ACROSS ERN SODAK...FEEL MODELS
ARE OVERDOING IT A BIT...SO ADVERTISING DRY TAFS EVERYWHERE. FOR
WINDS...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR FOR DIRECTIONS...WHICH IS
10-30 DEGREES MORE VEERED THAN LAMP GUIDANCE...BUT WITH VERY
SIMILAR SPEEDS...WITH GUSTS SNEAKING INTO THE 20S STILL LOOKING
LIKELY. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL HAVE BACKED MORE
TOWARD THE SOUTH...WITH CLOUD COVER OF ANY TYPE BASICALLY GONE.
KMSP...IF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WERE TO IMPACT THE FIELD...WOULD BE
IN THE 15-20Z TIME FRAME...BUT WITH LACK OF RADAR RETURNS AND
VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS BELOW 12K FT OUT WEST...KEPT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP OUT. WOULD PUT CHANCE OF SHRA AT 20 PERCENT AT BEST 15-20Z.
OTHER THAN THAT...MAIN ISSUE WILL DEAL WITH WINDS. HRRR IS VEERING
WINDS ALL THE WAY OVER TO 260 BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE PRIMARILY
A CROSS WIND TODAY AND WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON BEING ABLE TO KEEP
THE ACTIVE RUNWAYS ON THE 30S. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS COMING FOR
SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
.SAT...VFR. WINDS SSW 10-15KTS GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
.SUN...TSRA LIKELY IN THE EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS SW 15-20 KTS GUSTS
25-30 KTS.
.MON...VFR. WINDS WSW 10-15 KTS
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JVM/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
922 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST YESTERDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES LAST
NIGHT WAS A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THE GOES VISUAL REVEALS THE FOG TO BE RAPIDLY
BURNING OFF THIS MID MORNING. OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES ARE IN STORE
WHICH WILL DEVELOP A WARMER THAN NORMAL DAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH JUST MOVING INTO THE PAC-NW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT EAST OF
THE DIVIDE TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR WESTERN AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND
THE LATEST RAP. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SO ADDED POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...LIKELY FOR THE EVENING. FEW OTHER CHANGES. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER FLOW HAS VEERED TO SW PAST 24 HOURS ALLOWING CONVECTION
FROM E WY/CO TO BE DIRECTED AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO NE MT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
THIS MORNING THOUGH...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS...AND
DELAYED CLEARING IN OUR E LAST NIGHT WHERE THERE WAS
RAINFALL...THIS ALL COMBINING TO CAUSE AREAS OF FOG. MOS DIDN`T
SHOW ANY...BUT RAP MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING WIDESPREAD 95 PCT
SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS OUR E HALF OF THE CWA...AND THERE
ARE SIGNS ON THE SATELLITE FOG LOOP AS WELL AS THE OBS AT
GDV...OLF...AND SCOBEY.
STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY E
AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND LAST 2 RUNS OF THE GFS AND CMC GEM HAVE
BEEN ALSO FARTHER S...SO LOOKING A LITTLE BIT WETTER FOR OUR
AREA.
APPEARS THIS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AS
CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THE AIRMASS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING
LIFTED INDEXES TO AS LOW AS -10...CAPES TO 4000 J/KG...PRECIP
WATER TO 1.3 INCHES. THE GREATEST VALUES IN OUR SE. ALL AREAS WITH
0-6 KM WIND SHEAR OF UP TO 50 KT. THE BETTER DYNAMICS THOUGH IN W
AND N. THERE IS A LEADING COLD FRONT THAT HAS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOP ON IT OVER N WY AND MOVE NE ACROSS OUR SE TONIGHT. LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS JUST SO-SO THOUGH...AND MOST FAVORABLE LEFT
FRONT REGION OF JET IS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT AN
INTENSE...BUT RELATIVELY SHORTLIVED AND PROGRESSIVE CONVECTION AT
ANY ONE LOCATION AS WE QUICKLY CHANGE AIRMASS...BUT MOST ALL OF
THE CWA AFFECTED AS SHOWN BY SWODY1...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THERE IS ALSO A NARROW AREA IN STRONG COOL
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORN OF UP TO 30 KT AT 850
MB...SO MAY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND THIS MAY BE QUITE A BIT
ENHANCED BY CONVECTION TOO
MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY SLOT FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...
BUT THEN INCREASING SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN. DETAILS VARY
QUITE A BIT SO WENT MAINLY BROADRUSH SCATTERED FOR THOSE PERIODS.
MODELS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE DURING THIS TIME ALSO...SO PROBABLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT TOO. SUNDAY QUITE COOL WITH THICKNESS
VALUES INTO THE UPPER 540S AND LOWER 550S DM...NAM EVEN
LOWER...AND WITH PRECIP AND CLOUDCOVER...HIGHS HELD TO THE LOWER
60S. W WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT AT 850 MB WILL LIKELY MEAN A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY TOO. SIMONSEN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES EITHER EAST (GFS) OR
NORTHEAST (ECMWF) OUT OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO PART OF MONDAY. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HAS MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BREAK THROUGH THE MORNING LIFR FOG AND
DISSIPATE IT AROUND 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z AND SPREAD EAST
THIS EVENING. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PERIODS OF MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IF A STRONGER
STORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
428 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...
UPPER FLOW HAS VEERED TO SW PAST 24 HOURS ALLOWING CONVECTION
FROM E WY/CO TO BE DIRECTED AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO NE MT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK
TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
THIS MORNING THOUGH...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS...AND
DELAYED CLEARING IN OUR E LAST NIGHT WHERE THERE WAS
RAINFALL...THIS ALL COMBINING TO CAUSE AREAS OF FOG. MOS DIDN`T
SHOW ANY...BUT RAP MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING WIDESPREAD 95 PCT
SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS OUR E HALF OF THE CWA...AND THERE
ARE SIGNS ON THE SATELLITE FOG LOOP AS WELL AS THE OBS AT
GDV...OLF...AND SCOBEY.
STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY E
AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND LAST 2 RUNS OF THE GFS AND CMC GEM HAVE
BEEN ALSO FARTHER S...SO LOOKING A LITTLE BIT WETTER FOR OUR
AREA.
APPEARS THIS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AS
CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THE AIRMASS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING LIFTED
INDEXES TO AS LOW AS -10...CAPES TO 4000 J/KG...PRECIP WATER TO
1.3 INCHES. THE GREATEST VALUES IN OUR SE. ALL AREAS WITH 0-6 KM
WIND SHEAR OF UP TO 50 KT. THE BETTER DYNAMICS THOUGH IN W AND N.
THERE IS A LEADING COLD FRONT THAT HAS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOP ON
IT OVER N WY AND MOVE NE ACROSS OUR SE TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS JUST SO-SO THOUGH...AND MOST FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT
REGION OF JET IS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT AN INTENSE...BUT
RELATIVELY SHORTLIVED AND PROGRESSIVE CONVECTION AT ANY ONE LOCATION
AS WE QUICKLY CHANGE AIRMASS...BUT MOST ALL OF THE CWA AFFECTED AS
SHOWN BY SWODY1...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THERE IS ALSO A NARROW AREA IN STRONG COOL
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORN OF UP TO 30 KT AT 850 MB...SO MAY
NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND THIS MAY BE QUITE A BIT ENHANCED BY
CONVECTION TOO
MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY SLOT FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
THEN INCREASING SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN. DETAILS VARY QUITE
A BIT SO WENT MAINLY BROADRUSH SCATTERED FOR THOSE PERIODS. MODELS
A BIT MORE UNSTABLE DURING THIS TIME ALSO...SO PROBABLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT TOO. SUNDAY QUITE COOL WITH THICKNESS VALUES
INTO THE UPPER 540S AND LOWER 550S DM...NAM EVEN LOWER...AND WITH
PRECIP AND CLOUDCOVER...HIGHS HELD TO THE LOWER 60S. W WINDS
AROUND 20-30 KT AT 850 MB WILL LIKELY MEAN A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR SUNDAY TOO. SIMONSEN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES EITHER EAST (GFS) OR
NORTHEAST (ECMWF) OUT OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO PART OF MONDAY. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HAS MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG UNTIL 15Z MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z AND SPREAD EAST
THIS EVENING. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PERIODS OF MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT FROM
EITHER LOW CLOUDS AND/OR RAIN. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST 15
TO 25 KNOTS AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
943 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FAIR AND WARM WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THEN A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE GENERAL TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A
BIT DRIER CONDITIONS. A CONSENSUS QPF AMONG THE NAM/RGEM/GFS ALL
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON
SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN
THE DRY AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE...
EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF ROCHESTER...HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO
AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE A BIT OF A
DIFFERENT STORY. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED NORTH OF
LAKE HURON IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NORTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE WILL
HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
ENHANCE INSTABILITY. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WILL REACH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ML CAPES WILL
INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS
COUNTIES. WHILE THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...WIND PROFILES
SHOW SOME WIND SHEAR FROM 925 MB TO 700 MB...SUPPORTING SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. FREEZING
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. SPC
HAS THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT.
WILL ADD A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN
ZONES/GRIDS/HWO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING. THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD
THE REGION...A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN
NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTION WILL APPROACH EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...SEE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER METRO
AREAS...RANGING TO THE MID-50S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY...AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...AND TRACKS ALONG A SURFACE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A DECENT 30-40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY...AND AT LEAST SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE LOOKING A
DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.
IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE...ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CONCENTRATING THE BEST
OVERALL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TIMING-WISE...A
CONSENSUS OF THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL COME BETWEEN MID SATURDAY MORNING
AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FASTER AND MORE INCONSISTENT
00Z GFS DISCARDED AS A FAST OUTLIER. WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT... WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS INDICATED
OTHERWISE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN PLAY...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 80 IN THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO
GRADUALLY FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF A
WARMER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE A RETURN TO QUIETER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BOTH AFTERNOONS...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THEREFORE
A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO MIDSUMMERLIKE
WARMTH...AS WELL AS A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C AND +16C ON SUNDAY AND THE +16C
TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY...EXPECT SURFACE READINGS TO REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WHEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN OUR NORMALLY WARMEST LOCATIONS.
COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE
FOR FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SULTRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL
STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC-BASED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VACILLATE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...HAVE JUST KEPT BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS IN PLAY FOR BOTH DAYS
FOR NOW.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY...
THOUGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL /MID-UPPER 70S/
WITH 850 MB READINGS ONLY FALLING BACK TO THE +10C TO +14C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT MORE STABLE IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT LIMITING
INSTABILITY. FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUF/ROC/IAG/JHW)...EXPECT TODAY
TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE. ART WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE...WITH
THE AFTERNOON PRESENTING A PERIOD OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS ON
MID-AFTERNOON TIMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
ART BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...ARES OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE...AND WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS/WAVES WILL FALL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE ON EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...LEVAN/APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
744 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FAIR AND WARM WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THEN A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE GENERAL TREND OF
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A BIT DRIER CONDITIONS. A CONSENSUS QPF AMONG THE
NAM/RGEM/GFS ALL REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE BACKED OFF ON SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE DRY AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THIS
REGION. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF
ROCHESTER...HAVE SOLID CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...THOUGH IT
MAY BE A BIT BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 25
MPH OR SO AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE A BIT OF A
DIFFERENT STORY. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED NORTH OF
LAKE HURON IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NORTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE WILL
HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
ENHANCE INSTABILITY. INITIALLY...AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING. RAP PROFILES ON
BUFKIT SHOW THIS IS BEING CAUSED BY LIFT ALOFT. THE SHORTWAVE
TRAILS THIS...WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ML CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES. WHILE THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...WIND PROFILES SHOW SOME WIND SHEAR FROM 925 MB TO
700 MB...SUPPORTING SOME ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES. FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...INCREASING
THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND
AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. WILL ADD A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL IN ZONES/GRIDS/HWO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING. THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD
THE REGION...A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN
NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTION WILL APPROACH EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...SEE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER METRO
AREAS...RANGING TO THE MID-50S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY...AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...AND TRACKS ALONG A SURFACE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A DECENT 30-40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY...AND AT LEAST SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE LOOKING A
DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.
IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE...ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CONCENTRATING THE BEST
OVERALL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TIMING-WISE...A
CONSENSUS OF THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL COME BETWEEN MID SATURDAY MORNING
AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FASTER AND MORE INCONSISTENT
00Z GFS DISCARDED AS A FAST OUTLIER. WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT... WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS INDICATED
OTHERWISE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN PLAY...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 80 IN THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO
GRADUALLY FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF A
WARMER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE A RETURN TO QUIETER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BOTH AFTERNOONS...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THEREFORE
A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO MIDSUMMERLIKE
WARMTH...AS WELL AS A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C AND +16C ON SUNDAY AND THE +16C
TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY...EXPECT SURFACE READINGS TO REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WHEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN OUR NORMALLY WARMEST LOCATIONS.
COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE
FOR FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SULTRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL
STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC-BASED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VACILLATE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...HAVE JUST KEPT BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS IN PLAY FOR BOTH DAYS
FOR NOW.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY...
THOUGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL /MID-UPPER 70S/
WITH 850 MB READINGS ONLY FALLING BACK TO THE +10C TO +14C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT MORE STABLE IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT LIMITING
INSTABILITY. FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUF/ROC/IAG/JHW)...EXPECT TODAY
TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE. ART WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE...WITH
THE AFTERNOON PRESENTING A PERIOD OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS ON
MID-AFTERNOON TIMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
ART BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...ARES OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE...AND WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS/WAVES WILL FALL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE ON EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
318 AM PDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY MILDER WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR
AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING
REVEALS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE VANCOUVER ISLAND
COAST. RADAR AND INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICT NUMEROUS SHOWERS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION AS COLD UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT SAGS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA.
SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO HOLD TOGETHER ONCE IN THE LEE OF THE COAST
RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...BUT GIVEN TRENDS...I DO EXPECT
THERE TO BE NOTICEABLE BREAKS IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TODAY.
WITH THAT SAID...THE NAM...RUC AND HRRR SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MID MORNING ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DEEPER CONVECTION
FIRING OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS BRING
THIS AREA OF INCREASED SHOWERS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE
LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS. AFTER WHICH...WE MAY EXPERIENCE A SEVERAL
HOUR LULL IN PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
MODELS THEN GENERALLY BRING THE MAIN VORT MAX AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT
OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE...I DO
EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY TO
KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE COMMON.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR 4KFT TODAY...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL LIKELY ONLY OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CASCADES COINCIDES WITH A LACK OF SOLAR
ENERGY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS OVER THE
HIGHER PASSES. AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE ISSUE WILL REMAIN OUT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES. HOWEVER...UNDER A SIMILAR PATTERN RECENTLY...WE HELD ONTO
SHOWERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY
SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER...AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
WARM FURTHER MONDAY...WITH MID 70S APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
GENERAL TRENDS IN EXTENDED MODELS IS FOR A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TO LAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW CONFINED TO
THE GULF. WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS...THE WEAK SHORTWAVES DEPICTED PUSHING
IN ARE LIKELY TO PROVE ONLY A SMALL THREAT FOR PRODUCING RAIN...AND
AS SUCH WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. LATER IN
THE WEEK...BEGINNING AROUND WED...THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW BEGINS TO
DIG SE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY IN SHOWERS. AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT
DROPS OVER THE AREA ON FRI...LOOK FOR SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND. THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
ALL TAFS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOOK FOR THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME SMALL HAIL AFTER ABOUT
20Z UNTIL SUNSET. TODD/27
&&
.MARINE...BUOY 89 HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING IN THE 22-25 KT
RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THIS MORNING FOR WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HOWEVER...STILL CONCERNED
THAT CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO 25 KT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT
COULD OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE ALERT
TO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SMALL HAIL AND ABRUPT WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND DIRECTION
AND SPEED LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NW AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE STILL
KEEPING WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT SPEEDS...BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE MODELS TRACK THE LOW. HAVE MAINTAINED GUSTS NEAR 20
KT INTO LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL HOLD IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN START DIMINISHING. TODD/27
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM
TO 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1040 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
MOIST ELY SURFACE FLOW IS ONCE AGAIN PROVING MORE ROBUST THAN
00Z AND 06Z MODELS HAD ANTICIPATED. MOISTURE DEPTH HAS RECENTLY
INCREASED AS SHOWN BY STRATUS LOWERING A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT
LUBBOCK AND LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK. RECENT RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR LEGITIMATE IN
KEEPING THIS STRATUS LAYER LARGELY INTACT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUFFICIENTLY THINNING WITH DIABATIC HEATING. LACK OF A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACT TO KEEP THIS MOIST
FETCH IN PLACE LONGER...SO ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH 20Z...HIGH TEMPS WERE TRENDED 3-6 DEG COOLER MAINLY ON
THE CAPROCK WHERE UPSLOPE LIFT WILL PERSIST. NO OTHER UPDATES AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS AND VISBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING
AT KLBB AND THEN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT KCDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AFTER THE CONDITIONS IMPROVE...WINDS WILL
BE ALLOWED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO BETWEEN 10 AND 12
KNOTS. LOW STRATUS AND VISBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY WILL BE A QUASI REPEAT OF YESTERDAYS EVENTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL FLATTEN WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL LOWER TODAY
THE THICKNESS VALUES WILL RISE. LOW STRATUS FILTERED INTO THE AREA
HOURS AGO AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL MORNING. THESE LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP EARLIER THAN OBSERVED YESTERDAY THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON THURSDAY.
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...ANOTHER REPEAT OF LOW STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE CLOUDS
TO BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CAPPED. JDV
LONG TERM...
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN SATURDAY SHOULD MIX AND ERODE OUT TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE DAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT
RETURNS TO THE AREA. FLATTENED RIDGE WILL SHIFT JUST TO THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW SKIRTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SATURDAY WILL TURN HOTTER AS A RESULT WHILE WINDS WILL
BECOME LOW-END BREEZY. WITH THE STRONG HEATING...AND A SLIGHT
SURGE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES WE MAY SEE A
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD THOUGH SEEMS UNLIKELY FOR EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PUNCH THROUGH WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16
DEGREES CENTIGRADE. SUNDAY MORE OF THE SAME THOUGH BEGINNING WARM
AND DRY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT BREEZES AND
SHOULD BE OUR HOTTEST DAY COMING UP. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
HEADING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAGGING
SOUTHWARD.
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE UPPER LOW DIVERGE FROM THIS POINT...BUT
STILL DIP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...LEADING TO FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURES CONTRAST NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. BUT STILL TOO DRY FOR HOPE OF THUNDER
ALONG BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL WINDS THEN SHOULD STEER MORE EASTERLY
WITH MOISTURE SPREADING BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDER CHANCES BY LATE
TUESDAY IF NOT A BIT EARLIER BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR POPS
PRIOR TO THIS. SOUTHEAST COMPONENT WEDNESDAY APPEARS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL. THURSDAY AND EVEN FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES AGAIN AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO SHUT
DOWN THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN...WE WILL RETAIN DRY FORECAST STILL FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ALL-IN-ALL...VERY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 83 61 99 60 96 / 10 10 0 0 0
TULIA 81 62 96 64 96 / 10 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 78 63 96 66 97 / 10 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 80 64 98 67 100 / 10 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 79 65 98 68 102 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 88 65 100 66 100 / 10 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 83 65 98 68 100 / 10 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 84 65 95 68 100 / 10 10 10 10 0
SPUR 82 64 95 68 101 / 10 10 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 85 65 96 70 101 / 10 10 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
629 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
TODAY...THEN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DAKOTAS...AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MINNESOTA.
REGARDING THE DEEP TROUGH...500MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 2 BELOW
NORMAL. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PROFILER AND RADAR DATA
SHOWED AN 850MB JET OF 30-40 KT FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND WARMTH. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED
850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C IN THIS JET AREA...COMPARED TO 14C AT DLH AND
LA CROSSE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS IS QUITE INTERESTING...WITH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE...I.E. VALUES GREATER THAN 1 INCH...SITTING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. VALUES DROP TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER
MUCH OF KANSAS...MISSOURI AND IOWA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER
MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MINNESOTA WHERE VALUES ARE 1.25 TO
1.5 INCHES. THIS MAXIMA OF MOISTURE IS FUELING CONVECTION THAT HAS
FIRED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL DPVA FORCED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE
ARE ALSO ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PROGGED TO
FLATTEN OUT SOME...IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME FORM OF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST BECAUSE
OF THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE IS CRITICAL TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SINCE IT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE...GRADUALLY SPREADING CAPPING NORTHWARD
AND BRING IN THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SEEN TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION NORTH OF I-94
WHERE 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE A TREND THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE CONVECTION TO LIFT
NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 WHERE DPVA
FROM THE SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH CONTINUED 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
BUILDING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATING THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE
TRACK. IN FACT...THE OVERALL FORCING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FAIRLY
WEAK...AND AS SUCH KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20-40 RANGE.
SHOULD WE GET SOME STORMS IN OUR AREA...MAINLY JUST TAYLOR COUNTY
WOULD HAVE A SHOT TO SEE SEVERE CONVECTION...IN THE 21-03Z WINDOW
WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE QUIET WITH THE MAX
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BREAK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
15-16C BY 18Z...DRY GROUND AND A BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 80S...WITH MOST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A FEW READINGS AROUND 90 ARE POSSIBLE TOO. THE
COMBINATION OF A WARMER DAY TODAY AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE STAYING UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A WARM
SECTOR FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PROGGED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WELL AGREED UPON TO AT MOST IN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS MEANS ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A SLIM SHOT OF
SOMETHING COMING INTO SOUTHEAST MN VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY...IF THE FRONT CAN CONVECT AND CONVECTION CAN SPREAD EAST
FAST ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...WITH THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER THE AREA (LOWEST ON SATURDAY)...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. 850MB TEMPS OF 17-19C ON BOTH DAYS...THE DRY AIRMASS AND DRY
GROUND...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALL FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
MIXING. SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
ALTHOUGH 850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WOULD NORMALLY NOT SUPPORT
RECORD LEVELS...ONLY BEING 1-1.5 ABOVE NORMAL...LA CROSSE AND
ROCHESTER RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 93-96 RANGE. THEREFORE...WE MAY
GET CLOSE TO RECORDS. ANTICIPATING LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE
60S...AIDED BY THE DRY AIRMASS. DID STAY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS/GROUND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST. WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO PARALLEL THE UPPER
FLOW...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN MORE TO EITHER
RIGHT ON THE FRONT OR POST-FRONTAL. THERE ARE DECENT MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS THAT COME INTO THE AREA...ABOUT 50-70 METERS IN 12
HOURS AT 500MB. THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
SURGING UP TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT PLUS THE INCREASING
LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE AND
OELWEIN. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS MEAGER...DUE TO THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
POST-FRONTAL. IN FACT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE 0-6KM SHEAR
IS ONLY 20-25KT. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5-4 KM AND MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ARE NOT FAVORABLE EITHER FOR SEVERE. MAYBE AT MOST WE
END UP WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 60S
ON TAP...PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE 08.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
AND GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIAL
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AT 12Z MONDAY SHOULD HEAD UP INTO ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY BY
TUESDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AGAIN
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINTAINED 60 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS. IN FACT...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE LOCATIONS LIKE
ROCHESTER COULD END UP DRY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR...ALONG WITH
SUBSIDENCE...THEN COMES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DID
MAINTAIN SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS UP...BUT LATER FORECASTS
MAY BE ABLE TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD
END UP AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY...DUE TO
850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C TO 6-10C. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOMINATES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. UPPER
RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD UP INTO OUR AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO AT LEAST
NORMAL BY THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SHAPING
UP AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...LIKE THIS WEEKEND...WELL AGREED UPON
BY THE LAST COUPLE ECMWF...GFS AND CFS RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
629 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO MN. LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINE FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NEAR BLACK RIVER FALLS WI...NORTH OF THE
RST/KLSE TAF SITES. LOOK FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON FOR MORE SHRA/TS CHANCES. EXPECTING ALL
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES.
ONLY AFFECTS ON THE TAFS SITES WILL BE SCT-BKN MID CLOUD WITH
CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8-9KFT THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25 KT
RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
WINDS OF 10KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
337 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
...SMALL PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...
STILL SOME MODERATE FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH SEEM TO BE LACKING ANY
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES TODAY TO HELP FIRE OFF CONVECTION. SFC PRESSURE
FALLS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL OFF INTO
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHILE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. 16Z HRRR
MIXES DRY LINE EASTWARD TO ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIM TO LA JUNTA
BY 00Z WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE...AND ELEVATED HEATING
ALONG THE RIDGE OF OF THE RATON MESA TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH
THE POOLING DEW POINTS EAST OF THE DRY LINE...COULD SEE CAPES
1500-2000+ J/KG...WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. EACH
SUCCESSIVE HRRR RUN SEEMS TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NRN
SLOPES OF THE RATON...EASTWARD ACROSS BACA...BENT...PROWERS...AND
KIOWA COUNTIES AFTER 21Z. WITH SUCH HIGH CAPE VALUES...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEARS STILL RUNNING AROUND 30-40 KTS...THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EAST OF THE DRY LINE.
SPC HAS A 5% PROB FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED GIVEN LACK OF STRONG FORCING
ALOFT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 03Z. AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND WINDY DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A CALL AROUND TO FIRE DISTRICTS OUT WEST
INDICATES THAT DRYING FUELS SHOULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY BY TOMORROW. WITH FLOW ALOFT INCREASING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND INTO WRN MT
SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SPREADING DOWN THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION
TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND FREMONT COUNTY...AND WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
ISSUANCE. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE...THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE CRITICAL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
MANY AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAD RAIN IN THE RECENT DAYS...BUT SOME
MISSED OUT...AND FINER FUELS MAY BE CRITICALLY DRY IN THESE PATCHY
AREAS. HOWEVER...FUELS ACROSS FIRE ZONES 232...233 (EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND OTERO COUNTIES)...WHICH ALSO MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE SOLID REPORTS OF SUFFICIENT
GREEN UP TO OFFSET ANY CURING FUELS...SO HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON
THESE REPORTS FOR OTHER AREAS SUCH AS PUEBLO COUNTY...AND PORTIONS
OF CROWLEY COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THUS RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. STILL
SUFFICIENT GREEN UP FROM SNOW MELT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL...SO THOSE WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A NICE SUMMER-LIKE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND 60S AND 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. -KT
.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WYOMING AND
MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DRY WITH DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE
30S. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
MINIMAL. ONLY HAVE ISOLATED POPS OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE MODELS SUGGEST VERY MODEST CAPE VALUES
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN THE EVENING...SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FIRE SOME
CONVECTION...AND MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS. AIR ALOFT WILL BE DRY AND DECIDED NOT TO ADD ANY POPS TO
THE MOUNTAINS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 18Z NAM IS A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
.MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. MODELS KEEP THE HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. ONLY HAVE ISOLATED POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF CAPE. AIR ALOFT REMAINS DRY AND DID NOT ADD ANY POPS TO THE
REMAINING MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.
.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...RETURN FLOW MAY BRING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STARTING WEDNESDAY...TROUGH STARTS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. A
LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TOUGH TO FORECAST THESE SUBTLE FEATURES
IN DAYS 4 TO 7...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT.
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH GUSTY SOUTH WIND IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED
TCU POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF KPUB...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KCOS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING INTO KCOS AND KALS DURING
THE LATE MORNING...AND BY 18-19Z AT KPUB. GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ221-222-
224-225.
&&
$$
31/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1125 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR SATURDAY...AFTER CONFERRING WITH DISPATCH ON THE FUELS. ALSO
UPDATED TO INCLUDE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...ALONG A NARROW AXIS RUNNING FROM BRANSON
TO NEAR LA JUNTA. ALTHOUGH WE APPEAR TO BE LACKING A SHORTWAVE TO
HELP FIRE OFF THUNDERSTORMS...SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRY LINE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THIS REGION. HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT
THIS POTENTIAL. GIVEN CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500-2000+ K/JG WITH
DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 50S TO THE EAST OF THIS
AXIS...THUNDERSTORMS DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE IF
THEY DEVELOP...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...LACK OF STRONG FORCING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP HIGHLY LOCALIZED. SPC DOES HAVE
PORTIONS OF SE CO UNDER A 5% PROB FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL...AND ITS
HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS. SHORT RANGE MODELS DO MIX THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...SO THINK THESE AREAS WILL NOT
BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. WILL BE A LATE
SHOW IF IT HAPPENS...PROBABLY AFTER 3 PM. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT TAF SITES...WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF
KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS...PARTICULARLY AT KCOS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY 02Z...WITH LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES BY 17-18Z ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS
BY AFTERNOON. -KT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENTLY SEVERE
STORM LOCATED OVER EXTREME NE EL PASO COUNTY MOVING SSE. THIS STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSE AND SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT HALF
HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOTS OF CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE PLAINS WITH
LOW CIGS NOTED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DRIER WX MOVING INTO THE REGION.
MTNS...VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR WILL SEE DRIER AIR INVADE THE
REGION. FAR E PLAINS WILL REMAIN MOIST BUT WITH LITTLE FORCING...DO
NOT SEE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE (2000 J/KG). IT WILL BE BREEZY OVER THE HIGHER MTNS
AND FAR E PLAINS TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE PLAINS...MAINLY E OF KLHX.
LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
..HOT AND DRY ON SATURDAY...
..MORE STORMS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...
ACTIVE WX IS EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED...AS A PROGRESSIVE AND
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED JET PATTERN PERSISTS.
WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE SATURDAY...AS SWRLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A
STRONG TROUGH MOVING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL SEE TEMPS
APPROACH 100 F OVR THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. FIRE WX SITUATION IS A
BIT TRICKY...WITH WORST METEOROLOGIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVR AREAS
WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE OFFSET EARLIER DRY FUEL CONDITIONS. FORESTED
SLOPES IN FIRE WX WATCH AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH...BUT RH
AND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS BAD FOR THOSE AREAS. IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL MAINTAIN THE WATCH FOR NOW.
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL KNOCK DOWN SUN AFTERNOON TEMPS
10-20 DEG COMPARED TO SAT HIGH TEMPS. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVE OVR THE PALMER DVD AND ERN MTS. UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS
MODEST...BUT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH UPSLOPE AND LLVL MOISTURE TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHWRS/STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS CONTINUES FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE DRYLINE MAKES DIURNAL ADVANCES OVR THE ERN CO
PLAINS. WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR
SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF AN UPSTREAM PACIFIC LOW
THAT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS
DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS. IN ANY CASE...TREND SHOULD BR TO DRY
AND WARM WX BY FRI AS THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES. 44
AVIATION...LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS KPUB AND KCOS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. VFR WILL OCCUR AT KALS NEXT 24H.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ221-222-224-225.
&&
$$
31/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.AVIATION...
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIURNAL
HEATING. KPBI AND KFLL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN TERMINALS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE TSRAS. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION AND SEEM TO BE
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR DOES
DEPICT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH AFFECTING KMIA AND POSSIBLY
KTMB. KEPT VCTS AT THESE TERMINALS FOR NOW. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHRAS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSRAS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LINGERING BOUNDARY BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AND THEREFORE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF TAFS AFTER 00Z. 10/CD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY HAVE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS N FL WITH A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FAR WESTERN
GOFMEX. AT THE SAME TIME THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC. THESE SYSTEMS ARE COMBINING
TO PRODUCE A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS S FL AND AIDING IN THE
TRANSPORT OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR CONVEVTION TO FIRE UP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY BROWARD AND PALM
BEACH COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE LAKE OKEE REGION. THE HRRR WHICH
PERFORMS QUITE WELL IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT FROM GLADES TO CENTRAL
COLLIER COUNTIES BY NOON AND THEN BUILDING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE DISCUSSION. SO THE
EMPHASIS WILL BE GENERALLY BE INLAND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY ZONE BUT ALL IN ALL WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE COULD GET AT LEAST
SOME CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING DOES SHOW SOME
DRYING OCCURRED IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH IN TURN WILL ALSO HELP IN THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE ALONG WITH THE POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
AVIATION...A VRY MOIST SW WND FLOW ALOFT OVER S FLA ATTM WITH SOME
SHRA DVLPG OFF AND ON OVER THE INTERIOR WHICH HAV BEEN MOVG NE AND
INTO THE ATLC. ALL TERMINALS VFR THRU 16Z THOUGH VCSH PSBL SE AND AT
KAPF WITH VRY BRIEF MVFR CIG. AFT 16Z E COAST TERMINALS VCTS WITH
TSRA PSBL THRU 00Z THEN VCSH. GUSTY WNDS PSBL WITH TSRA AND LCLLY
HVY RA. SFC WNDS SSW-SW < 10 KTS WITH A PSBL SSE SEA BRZE DVLPG AFT
14Z. AT KAPF...VCSH INITIALLY AND TSRA PSBL BUT WILL AMD AS NEEDED
WITH VCTS AFT 14Z. SFC WND CALM ATTM BUT WL BCM SSW-SW ARND 10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
IT REMAINS VERY HUMID THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND TOWARDS GLADES COUNTY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
KEYS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MIAMI. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
GULF...TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN...AROUND THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN/FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINED ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF...AND A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF TODAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY TODAY.
SO DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE HELPING SPARK CONVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE PUSHING RIGHT UP AGAINST SOUTH
FLORIDA..THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION AND NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDINESS TODAY COULD LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY A LITTLE...AND
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD HAVE A
HARD TIME DEVELOPING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...AND TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 90 BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THE
REGION TODAY...SO BUMPED UP POPS TO 70 TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF...AND AROUND 60 PERCENT SOUTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY TROPICAL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND PWATS AOB 2 INCHES. SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS. STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THE SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO EXIT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...SO
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.
AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF MOVES
BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. SO THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD...LOWERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION COULD ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIED. AN OVERALL DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
RISE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD
APPROACH THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST...WITH MAINLY LOW
90S ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO ROTATE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR
THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF.
SO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION WILL DICTATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK. THIS FEATURE
MAY HELP ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...POPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO AT LOW END CHANCE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION...
A VRY MOIST SW WND FLOW ALOFT OVER S FLA ATTM WITH
SOME SHRA DVLPG OVR THE FLA STRAITS AND SE FLA WITH A LRG AREA OF
SHRA MOVG UPON THE W CNTRL FLA COAST AND MOVG TWD LK OKEE. ALL
TERMINALS VFR THRU 16Z THOUGH VCSH PSBL SE AND AT KAPF WITH VRY
BRIEF MVFR CIG. AFT 16Z E COAST TERMINALS VCTS XCPT PROB30 AT KPBI
/KFLL AND KFXE WITH VCTS ELSWHR E COAST. TSRA PSBL THRU 00Z THEN
VCSH. GUSTY WNDS PSBL WITH TSRA AND LCLLY HVY RA. SFC WNDS SSW-SW
< 10 KTS WITH A PSBL SSE SEA BRZE DVLPG AFT 14Z. AT KAPF...VCSH
INITIALLY AND TSRA PSBL BUT WILL AMD AS NEEDED WITH VCTS AFT 14Z.
SFC WND CALM ATTM BUT WL BCM SSW-SW ARND 10 KTS.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
OVER ALL THE LOCAL WATERS...AS THEY SWING FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION TODAY TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS
WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 75 90 / 50 50 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 78 90 / 40 40 20 20
MIAMI 78 90 78 91 / 40 40 20 20
NAPLES 76 90 76 92 / 40 50 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1139 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
CLOUD COVER HAS PERSISTED ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING...AS WELL AS
PREVENTED WINDS FROM INCREASING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE LOOP
INDICATES THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO THIN AND EXPECT THEM TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAPIDLY
RECOVER AND WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE FULL MIXING IS REACHED BY MID
AFTERNOON.
ALSO TOOK THE OPPORTUNITY TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SATURDAY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND ENOUGH MIXING HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS FROM NARROWING. SO REMOVED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING. WHAT PRECIPITATION THERE WAS HAS FINALLY ENDED SO WILL
NOT NEED TO EXTEND ANY CHANCES INTO THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...HOW HOT DOES IT GET/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
SATURDAY...AND WINDS/HOW COOL DOES IT GET/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STILL A TROUGH...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE...AND TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT JET LEVEL WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY BETTER.
AT MID LEVELS...WOULD HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO THE GFS SINCE IT IS
DOING THE BEST WITH DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ECMWF
FOLLOWED BY THE NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE
WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. ECMWF WAS ESPECIALLY DOING WELL WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH POSITION OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION REMAINED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVED FURTHER EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER/NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN GOVERNED BY MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES. MOST MODEL OUTPUT...EVEN THE HRRR AND RUC...HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE FOR AS A LONG AS POSSIBLE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION/DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE AROUND...MAY
AFFECT THE EXTENT OF THE FOG AS WELL.
MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR UPSTREAM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
REMAINS WELL WEST. WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR
WEST. GRADIENT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS BREEZY TO WINDY. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. NWP IS THE COOLEST
GUIDANCE OF THE BUNCH WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING WARMER
TEMPERATURES. ALL DEPENDS HOW FAST DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION LASTS PLUS WHEN WHATEVER STRATUS DEVELOPS ALSO
BURNS OFF. DID TONE DOWN MAXES IN THE WEST A FEW DEGREES BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD COVER AND MADE THE EAST THE WARMEST.
SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT ON MAX TEMPERATURES AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE HANDLING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. HOWEVER DUE TO UPSTREAM RIDGING AND
NCEP DISCUSSIONS...DO BELIEVE THAT SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH AND MAYBE EVEN SLOWER. THERE LOOKS TO BE STRONGER MID/UPPER
RIDGING BUT THE LEE TROUGH MAYBE FURTHER WEST WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE WINDS. BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS THIS THE BEST
AT THIS TIME. ABOVE REASONING...850 TO 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND
BLENDING OF VARIOUS NWP/2M GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. REFER BELOW FOR
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
WE LOOK TO STAY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST +15C.
ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HOT...AN ISOLATED UPDRAFT IS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE EARLIER GUIDANCE PER EXPLANATION GIVEN ABOVE.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z AND THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE LOOKS NOW TO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...
IT STILL LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CINH.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOKS WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. RATHER
IMPRESSIVE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OCCUR AND A BRIEFLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AS WELL. IF THIS WERE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WOULD SAY THAT
THERE WOULD BE A DECENT CHANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE A RAPID/BRIEF BURST OF WINDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
SOME DECREASE IN THE WINDS BY 18Z.
EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCE IN MODEL MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE EARLIER
GUIDANCE WITH A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT WITH TONIGHTS LATER GUIDANCE.
NAM IS BY FAR THE COOLEST. FRONT LOOKS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY
18Z. BASED ON THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND THE COLD AIR I SEE
BEHIND IT UPSTREAM...DID TREND THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
EARLY MODEL RUNS FROM THE EVENING HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE NAM BY FAR
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE 06Z NAM MAINTAINED THIS. HOWEVER...
OTHER MODELS NOW HAVE LESS PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE
IT FURTHER SOUTH. SREF AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS AND MAKES SENSE
SINCE THE AREA LOOKS FAR REMOVED FROM THE MAIN LIFT AND
INSTABILITY. SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ABOVE REASONING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE NORTH
OF THIS FRONT AND WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CWA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS...MAY
SEE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH OR FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THE GFS BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHERN TRACK
WOULD PLACE THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT OVERALL
FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AT KGLD THROUGH ABOUT 19Z AND REACH
VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH LOSS OF
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING. VFR EXPECTED AT KMCK THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SCATTERED MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT AT EITHER LOCATION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....BULLER/PM
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1211 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THIS MORNING:
ALL IS NOT QUIET ON THE WESTERN KANSAS FRONT. HAVE TWO FORECAST CONCERNS
THAT HAVE STARTED TO APPEAR/TREND ON A WSR-88D MOSAIC MAP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE COLORADO & THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THOSE TWO SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FOG AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE TAKING THE "LONG WAY" (AKA ADVECTION) ACROSS THE HIGH TEXAS PLAINS
WHEREAS DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ARE LOWER
(MID TO UPPER 50S DEG F VERSUS AROUND 60 DEG F TOWARDS KDHT). NAM BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND BUFKIT FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P`S SUGGEST
THAT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE
BORDER. SREF VISIBILITY PROGS ALSO SUGGEST HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR HAS BACKED
OFF ON FOG IN RECENT RUNS SO THIS MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN TERMS
OF AERIAL COVERAGE. THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE.
SECOND CONCERN IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ROUGHLY
WEST OF DODGE CITY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL RUNS FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST
DECENT COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY/QPF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CAUSED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 800 TO 700 HPA LAYER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS AS A RESULT. BOTH
CORES OF THE WRF ARE ALSO SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
TODAY:
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE ON THE BANAL SIDE.
THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TYPICALLY DOES DURING THE
DAY. MIXING ROUGHLY TO 750 HPA AND RESULTANT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWNWARD
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 80S DEG F). AFTER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
CLEARS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...HAVE MID 60S DEG F IN THE GRIDS. A LACK OF SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE
PERTURBATIONS/500 HPA RIDGING/WEAK JET DYNAMICS DURING THE EVENING WILL
RESULT IN 0 PERCENT POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE START OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE WARM AND WINDY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND +14 TO +16C 700MB TEMPERATURES SPREADS EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR 30C 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY
SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE FURTHER EAST 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 20S. 25C 850 MB TEMPERATURE MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS STILL YIELDED HIGHS
AROUND 90 DEGREES SO THE BASED ON THE NEW 850-700MB TEMPERATURES
AT 00Z SUNDAY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE DAY.
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
NOW FORECAST BY THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS STILL
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS/NEAR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS BUT
MID LEVELS WILL BE COOLING BY 00Z MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. BASED ON THIS COOLING, LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND MOISTURE/FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WILL INTRODUCE CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY LATE SUNDAY AND
THEN EXPAND CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ALONG THIS FRONT SUNDAY
EVENING RANGES FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 30 TO 40
KNOTS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IT DOES APPEAR THEY WILL HAVE
TO POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BY LATE DAY. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT NOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED A FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS RUN. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET HOWEVER SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE FURTHER GFS SUGGESTED. AS A RESULT WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE WARMER CONSALL MOS AND 850MB 00Z MONDAY ECMWF TEMPERATURES AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. HIGHS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ONLY TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PERSIST
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BASED ON 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION, 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A
GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE 850MB MOISTURE AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA.
700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT I310
AND I315 LEVELS HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS LATE DAY.
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE WESTERLY
FLOW MID TO LATE WEEK. EACH OF THESE WAVES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THEY
PASS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING, TRACK
OR STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE FEATURES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE
LATER PERIODS.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK STILL LOOK TO BE MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S EACH DAY. CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK MAY
HOLD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THE 850MB MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS TODAY AS A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME BY
SUNSET BUT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AGAIN TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY, DEPENDING ON SURFACE
WIND CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING
AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 65 93 67 / 10 0 10 10
GCK 88 65 97 67 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 87 65 99 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 87 65 97 66 / 30 0 10 0
HYS 88 66 94 69 / 10 0 10 10
P28 89 66 90 69 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
317 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CREATING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON. NEW RUC HAS CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG
BUT CAPE REMAINS SKINNY. SHEAR NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LOW BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FREEZING LEVEL ONLY AROUND 8K, SMALL HAIL
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. HRRR AND RUC MODEL INDICATE THIS FIRST AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BUT IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW OVER 1 INCH SO
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGES APPEARS
TO BE AROUND .25 ACROSS DOWNEAST WITH OVER HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTH BUT AGAIN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY DOWNPOURS.
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS BORDERING NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY DAYS AND
CLEAR MILD NIGHT NIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY. HIGH ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND THEN MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST ON TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE
LATER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS BUT LOWER IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS ACROSS
DOWNEAST BETWEEN 07-12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, FOG WILL KEEP VSBY BELOW 1 NM TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...FOSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1210 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CREATING
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200L: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST MAINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEW RUC HAS CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BUT CAPE REMAINS SKINNY. SHEAR NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE SO STILL EXPECTING THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LOW. PW
OVER 1 INCH SO POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
0930L UPDATE: WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF PISCATAQUIS,,,PENOBSCOT AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 100% FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.
640 AM UPDATE:
A LITTLE PATCH OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY TOWARD PRESQUE ISLE EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
RAISED EARLY MORNING POPS TO 40 PERCENT HERE. TWEAKED AREAS OF FOG
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. FOG WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY INLAND...BUT A BIT SLOWER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MADE SOME OTHER MINOR TWEAKS TO TODAY`S POPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. 11-3.9 FOG CHANNEL
AT 315 AM SHOWING FOG ALONG THE WESTERN DOWNEAST COAST AS WELL AS
BETWEEN BANGOR AND HOULTON. EXPECT THE FOG TO FILL IN A BIT MORE
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO FIRE
LATE THIS MORNING AND AROUND NOON AND BEGIN OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING EAST INTO
THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND
COMING OFF THE OCEAN...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF TODAY`S
CONVECTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED RATHER THAN ELEVATED IN ALL AREAS
EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE COAST. THAT BEING SAID...JUST CANNOT SEE THE
STORMS BEING STRONG OR SEVERE. IF ANYTHING IS TO BECOME
STRONG...IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH WOODS AND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
FOR TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS INTO A STEADIER
RAIN...WITH A DECENT SOAKING OF AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MOST
PLACES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE RAIN GOING LONGER THAN OTHERWISE
WOULD BE THE CASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE NEW LOW WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM12...GFS40....SREF AND ECMWF TO INITIALIZED POP GRIDS THEN HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FOR WIND GRIDS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE NAM12 AND GMOS DURING DAY AND ONLY GMOS AT NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE GMOS AND HAVE INCREASED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES. FOR QPF WILL BLEND THE GFS40 AND NAM12.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND BUILD
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WILL INITIALIZE ALL
GRIDS WITH GMOS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS
MOSTLY FOR SMOOTHING. WILL ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HIGHER BY
SEVERAL DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
FOG OVER MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING KBHB AND KBGR. FOG WILL
BE A BIT SLOWER TO BURN OFF ALONG THE COAST THAN INLAND.
EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ALONG WITH EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY THEN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
LARGE AREA OF FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG TO REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VSBY
LESS THAN 1 NM. CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KT AND
SEAS TO 4 FT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRANSITION TO GMOS WINDS. WILL LOWER WIND
SPEED BY 10 PERCENT. FOR WAVES WILL USE THE WNA/4 TO INITIALIZE
GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 1 FOOT TUESDAY TO BETTER FIT GMOS
WINDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/FOSTER
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FOISY/FOSTER
MARINE...FOISY/FOSTER/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
WV LOOP/RAOBS/RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING NORTH OVER MANITOBA WITH PV ANAMOLY BEGINNING TO ENTER
FAR WEST LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. 925-850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION THAT TRIGGERED MORNING SHRA/SCT TSRA HAS PUSHED INTO
CNTRL CWA AND MERGED WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FM MQT-P53-ISQ. CLUSTER OF
TSRA OVR DELTA COUNTY MOST ACTIVE LAST HR IS WITHIN AXIS OF SFC
BASED CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 40 KTS. A
COUPLE OF STORMS MAY HAVE PRODUCED SMALL HAIL...BUT OTHERWISE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN THE MAIN HAZARDS. EVEN
THOUGH THESE SHRA/TSRA ARE PINNED TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE THEY
WILL LIKELY GET SWEPT UP IN THE LARGER SCALE 925-850MB TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION REGIME AND EDGE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. FARTHER WEST...THUS
FAR THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA FORMING OVR WCNTRL
WISCONSIN ON EDGE OF DPVA JUST AHEAD OF PV ANAOMLY. SUSPECT THIS IS
DUE TO MID-LEVEL WARMING ON 12Z GRB SOUNDING. RUC AND NAM INDICATED
ONLY FURTHER WARMING WOULD OCCUR THIS AFTN AND THAT SHOWS UP WITH
RAP SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY MOIST
ADIABATIC OVR WCNTRL WI. WILL NEED TO KEEP FOCUS JUST SW OF CWA
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT OVER FAR NCNTRL CWA INTO THE EASTERN CWA CLOSER
TO 925-850MB WARM FRONT.
TWEAKED POPS TO INDICATE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF WHERE CURRENT CONVECTION IS ONGOING. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
MOVE THE HIGHER POPS OUT OF THE KEWEENAW AND MOST OF BARAGA AND
MARQUETTE COUNTIES. YET STILL CANNOT COUNT OUT SOME SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA OVR WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING SINCE THE
SHORTWAVE IS RIDING THROUGH AND INTERACTING WITH MOIST AIRMASS.
EXPECT SHORTWAVE TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA
OVR CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT AS FORCING SLACKENS AND LOW-LEVEL SFC TROUGH AND H85 WARM
FRONT LIFT NORTH OF CWA. WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS PRESENT IN THE
EVENING CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR WILL HAVE RISK OF SOME FOG. WEBCAMS
SHOWED FOG DRIFTING INTO VCNTY OF MQT THIS AFTN...BUT BETTER CHANCE
OF FOG TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ON THE KEWEENAW MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITH SE GRADIENT WIND. HIGHER DWPNTS AND SOME WIND IN THE WARM
SECTOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD RESTRICT TEMPS FM FALLING MUCH
BLO 60F IN MOST AREAS.
WARM FRONT NORTH OF CWA ON SATURDAY...BUT GRADIENT IS NOT THAT
STRONG. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MAINTAIN IDEA OF LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVR MAINLY CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA BY
MIDDAY. MLCAPES COULD END UP FAIRLY HIGH AS MIXING IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD ONLY LOWER DWPNTS INTO THE MID-UPR 50S AT THE
LOWEST. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AROUND WILL LIKELY SEE DWPNTS MOST
SPOTS HOVER AROUND 60F MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM MARKEDLY
ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR OVR WESTERN CWA. NAM/GFS AVERAGE FOR
H85 TEMPS SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOCALLY NEAR 90F IN ISOLD LOCATIONS. RESULTING MLCAPES EASILY PUSH
PAST 1000J/KG WITH MINIMAL CINH. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
BE MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP CHANCES GOING INLAND
FM THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH AS LAKE
BREEZES CEASE AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL 500 MB TROUGH STAGGERED TO THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE...HELPING TO
AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AXIS
RUNNING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL WI AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION AS MANY OF THE
ISOBARS ARE OPEN TO THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST HELPING TO FOCUS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS MUCH OF MN THROUGH NORTHERN IA. LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S. HAVE KEPT FOG OVER THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WAA OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE...EFFECTIVELY TRAPPING THE MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. FOG
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED TO LATER TIME PERIODS AS WELL
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 500MB AND THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST...REACHING CENTRAL ONTARIO BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW AS WELL AS FRONTAL POSITION AND TIMING. THE GFS/EC MODELS
SHOW THE FRONT OVER WESTERN UPPER MI MONDAY MORNING...PROCEEDING TO
EASTERN UPPER MI BY 00Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA AS MU CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH THE FRONT ACTING AS THE FORCING MECHANISM
TO FOCUS CONVECTION. LOOKING AT A FEW OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 700-800 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 TO 40
KNOTS ALONG THE FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. SHEAR VECTORS AR
EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS FORMING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE. MOST OF
THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE THE QPF VALUES WERE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IN THE GFS GUIDANCE WHICH WAS LIKELY
CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...SO REDUCED THE PRECIPITATION
TOTAL SLIGHTLY USING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE
EC.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS
EASTWARD THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
UPPER PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING...THANKS TO A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS FLOWING ALONG THE
LONG AXIS OF LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO UPPER MI THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHIFTS
TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW...A TROUGH AT
500 MB WILL ALSO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE SHIFTED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.P. AS UPPER LEVEL Q-DIVERGENCE IS
COLLOCATED WITH BEST MOISTURE AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING RH FROM 1000MB
TO 500MB. DID NOT PLACE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
AS IT APPEARS AS IF CAPE WOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES REMAINING FARTHER WEST OVER MUCH OF MN.
FOR FRIDAY THE BEST MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE SLIDES TO THE
NORTH...MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WILL BE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
A CONVOLUTED FORECAST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
EVOLUTION OF ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR. ALL SITES SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR THROUGH THE
EVENT...EXPECT FOR MVFR CIGS AND VIS AT CMX THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY STAY
CLEAR OF IWD AS CAP CONTINUES TO HOLD TO THE WEST. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AIDS FORCING...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE
COVERAGE OF TS. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF CMX
AND SAW TAFS UNLESS IT BECOMES CLEAR TS WILL BE MORE THAN JUST
ISOLATED. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THANKS TO A STABLE MARINE LAYER...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE LAKE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REACH THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
A WEAK WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER ABOUT THE EAST HALF. INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD ALSO INCREASE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. THERE
WILL BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS THAT WILL AFFECT KINL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
QUITE STRONG...WITH THEM PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
A SECOND FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE CONVERGENT FLOW FROM 925-850MB
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
EVENING. WE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAFS EITHER WITH
VCTS OR A TEMPO GROUP. LATE TONIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OR END WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. WE KEPT LLWS IN THE TAFS AT
BOTH KBRD/KHYR AS SW LLJ DEVELOPS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
UPDATE...
AT 15Z...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MANITOBA...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...AND A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE FA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE
WAS AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THAT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S AND AND LOW 70S...AND
THERE WERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED
WAA EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD INTO NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND WERE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. THERE WERE SOME MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA...TOO.
CUT BACK ON POPS FOR MOST OF THE FA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...BUT STILL LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE WESTERN THREE FOURTHS OF THE FA. RECENT MODELS HAVE
BEEN BACKING OFF ON PCPN FOR THE FA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM. HOWEVER...DID NOT WANT TO
BACK OFF ON AFTERNOON POPS TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE CLEARING
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT...WHICH MAY HELP DESTABILIZE MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY DUE TO
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE CLOUD COVER TREND AND ITS POTENTIAL TO LIMIT THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
UPDATE...LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL WI ATTM. THIS PCPN IS DIMINISHING AS THE SUN COMES
UP. NOTHING DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS LINE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
SHORT TERM...07Z SFC PRESSURE PLOT PLACED A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WAS ORGANIZING IN SE MANITOBA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG
THE FRONT WITH RECENT DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF WAA. STORMS ARE ALSO GETTING SUPPORT FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE
WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING EVEN
AFTER FROPA AS WAA WILL CONTINUE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF FLATTENS OUT
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY OVER THE
FA WITH GOOD SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H85 COMPUTED LI`S TO -4C
AND MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND ITS AFFECT ON DIURNAL
HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE ZONES/GRIDS. SEE THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FOR DETAILS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AFTER 06Z. MEANWHILE...SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING
THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS
FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS AND IN THE VCNTY OF LLJ CROSS
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD
WHERE AN ADDITIONAL SFC BOUNDARY WILL STALL AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
IN FAR SW ONTARIO. PCPN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z AS LLJ
MOVES OFF TO THE E.
WAA CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING/SPREADING INTO THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STUCK JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN FOR SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER HOT WITH 80S EXPECTED...A BIT COOLER ALONG THE N
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR CKC/GNA.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A POTENT UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND
COMBINE WITH A SFC COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN ND. A STRONG 850MB LLJ...ROUGHLY 50
KTS...WILL ADVECT IN A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN MN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
EWD...THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXES. MAINLY ALONG A PATH JUST SOUTH OR
PARALLEL TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NRN MN. AREAS TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED AS A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EWD DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH N-CENTRAL MN...AND MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG...0-6 KM AGL BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KT...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PWATS OVER
1.5 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID/STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW LIGHT COLD
ADVECTION SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES MONDAY.
SO...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN CHC/SLGT CHC POPS DURING THE DAY AND INTO
MON NIGHT. A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCES DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
NW WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY
WARM...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 80S...AND EVEN A FEW LOW 90S. ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
TEMPS ON TUES AND WED ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS FORECAST GOING INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 59 82 60 84 / 20 10 10 30
INL 56 87 63 83 / 10 10 20 50
BRD 64 89 69 87 / 10 10 10 50
HYR 62 85 63 88 / 20 10 10 20
ASX 61 85 61 87 / 40 10 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
254 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS CLOSED UPPER
LOW/STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC-NW...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INTO MONTANA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON...THEN REACHES OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...MEETING UP WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS...
ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP SUGGEST STORM INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST. SO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE MAINLY
AFTER 00Z. THE STRONGEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF AROUND 2600 J/KG
REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF AROUND -7C ARE INDICATED IN THE SAME AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT...DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50KTS. INVERTED
V-SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
WITH ANY STORM. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF TOWARD THE NORTH. WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELECTED WITH THE
COORDINATION OF SPC TO TO A SPECIAL SOUNDING AROUND 20Z. SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH SEVERE WORDING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
MODELS SUGGEST AROUND A HALF INCH OF MOISTURE...BUT 1 HOUR FF
GUIDANCE HAS ROOM FOR AROUND AN INCH OR MORE. AFTER MIDNIGHT
GROWTH OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AS THEY TREND NORTHEAST
INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...CONTINUING WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND WINDS.
THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE ACTION AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN. THEN
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH POPS. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH 20MPH OVER FORT PECK LAKE
SATURDAY MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY...DRAGGING BACK
SIDE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STORM
SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH SOMEWHAT CALMER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AT LEAST INITIALLY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMES EVEN WEAKER AND ALLOWS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA FOR QUITE A WHILE.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO OUR
REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THIS LATER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE CASCADE RANGE AND CUTS OFF AS A
LARGE AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER
LOW MOVES EITHER EAST (GFS) OR NORTHEAST (ECMWF) OUT OF THE AREA.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO PART OF MONDAY. WILL
KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HAS MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME SUNSHINE TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OCCASIONALLY AND BRIEFLY TO LIFR
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
123 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FAIR AND WARM WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THEN A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE GENERAL TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A
BIT DRIER CONDITIONS. A CONSENSUS QPF AMONG THE NAM/RGEM/GFS ALL
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON
SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN
THE DRY AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE...
EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF ROCHESTER...HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO
AIDED BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE A BIT OF A
DIFFERENT STORY. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED NORTH OF
LAKE HURON IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NORTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE WILL
HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
ENHANCE INSTABILITY. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WILL REACH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ML CAPES WILL
INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS
COUNTIES. WHILE THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...WIND PROFILES
SHOW SOME WIND SHEAR FROM 925 MB TO 700 MB...SUPPORTING SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. FREEZING
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE LOW...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. SPC
HAS THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT.
WILL ADD A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN
ZONES/GRIDS/HWO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING. THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD
THE REGION...A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN
NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTION WILL APPROACH EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...SEE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER METRO
AREAS...RANGING TO THE MID-50S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY...AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...AND TRACKS ALONG A SURFACE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A DECENT 30-40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY...AND AT LEAST SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE LOOKING A
DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.
IN TERMS OF WHERE THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE...ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CONCENTRATING THE BEST
OVERALL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TIMING-WISE...A
CONSENSUS OF THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL COME BETWEEN MID SATURDAY MORNING
AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FASTER AND MORE INCONSISTENT
00Z GFS DISCARDED AS A FAST OUTLIER. WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT... WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS INDICATED
OTHERWISE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN PLAY...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 80 IN THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO
GRADUALLY FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS STILL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE ARRIVAL OF A
WARMER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE A RETURN TO QUIETER
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BOTH AFTERNOONS...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THEREFORE
A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO MIDSUMMERLIKE
WARMTH...AS WELL AS A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C AND +16C ON SUNDAY AND THE +16C
TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY...EXPECT SURFACE READINGS TO REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WHEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN OUR NORMALLY WARMEST LOCATIONS.
COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE
FOR FAIRLY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SULTRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL
STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC-BASED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VACILLATE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...HAVE JUST KEPT BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS IN PLAY FOR BOTH DAYS
FOR NOW.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY...
THOUGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL /MID-UPPER 70S/
WITH 850 MB READINGS ONLY FALLING BACK TO THE +10C TO +14C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. KART WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE AFTERNOON PRESENTING A
PERIOD OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE... TIMING WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 00Z.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS
THE FINGER LAKES REGION, INCLUDING KROC.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHC SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE...AND WITH THE LAKE BREEZE. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS/WAVES WILL FALL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE ON EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...LEVAN/APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
334 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...EXCEPT IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...CUMULUS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON MESA. IF
THESE DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEY COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AND IN FACT...THE RAP SHOWS THIS SCENARIO
FOR A BRIEF WINDOW THIS EVENING. HIGH CIN VALUES AND RELATIVELY WEAK
0 TO 6 KM MEAN FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THE OK
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...BUT IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
AREA.
TOMORROW...THE DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW.
BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS PROGRESS
EAST...POSSIBLY MOVING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ENTIRELY. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLD FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO...IF NOT
ENTERING...THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THAT
STRONG DAY TIME COLD FRONTS ARE ABNORMAL FOR MID JUNE...EXPECT THAT
THE FRONT WILL SLOW IF NOT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE DRY AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE DRYLINE PROGRESSES EAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HAVE ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD STILL
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. STARTING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANCES FOR STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...IN A STARK DEPARTURE FROM
BOTH THE GFS AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF...NOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE
TO A SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY BEHIND THE FRONT. AM HESITANT TO GO WITH
THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO
HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GFS SOLUTION.
JOHNSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN...AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
PANHANDLES TOMORROW. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND GREEN FUELS...DO NOT
EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER
EAST...POSSIBLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. STILL...GIVEN THE CONDITION
OF THE FUELS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSH
THROUGH ALL OF THE PANHANDLES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER...AND
THUS HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 61 93 59 95 60 / 0 0 0 5 10
BEAVER OK 63 93 63 100 59 / 0 0 0 5 10
BOISE CITY OK 60 97 57 93 56 / 20 0 0 5 10
BORGER TX 65 95 66 98 64 / 0 0 0 5 10
BOYS RANCH TX 62 98 57 98 61 / 0 0 0 5 10
CANYON TX 60 93 56 95 60 / 0 0 0 5 10
CLARENDON TX 62 91 64 96 62 / 0 0 0 5 10
DALHART TX 58 98 50 94 57 / 5 0 0 5 10
GUYMON OK 61 96 59 94 58 / 5 0 0 5 10
HEREFORD TX 59 94 58 95 58 / 0 0 0 5 10
LIPSCOMB TX 65 90 64 97 63 / 0 0 0 5 10
PAMPA TX 61 92 61 94 61 / 0 0 0 5 10
SHAMROCK TX 64 89 64 96 64 / 0 0 0 5 10
WELLINGTON TX 64 91 65 98 65 / 0 0 0 5 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.AVIATION...
PROLONGED IFR CEILINGS AT LBB ARE SLOWLY RISING CLOSER TO MVFR
LEVELS THIS HOUR AS RADIATIONAL HEATING BECOMES MORE DIRECT. IN
SPITE OF CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE WINDS...AM EXPECTING STRATUS TO
THIN OUT AROUND 21Z AND RESTORE VFR LEVELS. SHOULD NOT SEE A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF LOG CLOUDS TONIGHT AS WINDS IN THE LOWEST
5K FEET WILL BE VEERING MORE S-SWLY AND PULLING IN DRIER AIR.
AT CDS...EXPECT VFR STRATUS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ADVECTS WESTWARD FROM NORTHWEST TX AND SWRN OK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
UPDATE...
MOIST ELY SURFACE FLOW IS ONCE AGAIN PROVING MORE ROBUST THAN
00Z AND 06Z MODELS HAD ANTICIPATED. MOISTURE DEPTH HAS RECENTLY
INCREASED AS SHOWN BY STRATUS LOWERING A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT
LUBBOCK AND LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK. RECENT RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR LEGITIMATE IN
KEEPING THIS STRATUS LAYER LARGELY INTACT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUFFICIENTLY THINNING WITH DIABATIC HEATING. LACK OF A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACT TO KEEP THIS MOIST
FETCH IN PLACE LONGER...SO ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH 20Z...HIGH TEMPS WERE TRENDED 3-6 DEG COOLER MAINLY ON
THE CAPROCK WHERE UPSLOPE LIFT WILL PERSIST. NO OTHER UPDATES AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 61 99 60 96 58 / 10 0 0 0 10
TULIA 62 96 64 96 63 / 10 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 63 96 66 97 64 / 10 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 64 98 67 100 63 / 10 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 65 98 68 101 65 / 10 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 65 100 66 100 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 65 98 68 100 64 / 10 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 65 95 68 100 68 / 10 10 10 0 10
SPUR 64 94 68 100 69 / 10 10 10 0 10
ASPERMONT 65 96 70 101 71 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1044 AM PDT Fri Jun 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad low pressure system spinning over the region will continue
to fuel widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
through Saturday. Sunday will be a marginally drier day in
Washington...with wet conditions persisting in the Idaho
Panhandle. Temperatures will be well below normal. Temperatures
will temporarily warm to seasonal levels for the beginning of the
work week...but unsettled weather will likely return by the middle
of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Forecast for the rest of today is in good shape with just minor
updates made to the forecast. Satellite imagery shows a closed low
off the Washington coast that will drop southeast moving into
Northwest Oregon this evening. Moist diffluent southerly flow and
lift ahead of the low will trigger showers across the Inland
Northwest today. Increased instability this afternoon will also
aid in shower development with HRRR data indicating increasing
showers over the Inland Northwest this afternoon. A cold pool at
500mb will track over the area this afternoon with values of -25
to -27C over the area. Instability will be greatest over the
Cascades which is in closest proximity to the cold pool with the
low...and over the northern mountains where low level moisture is
highest. LAPS analysis as of 17z (10 am) already was indicating
surface based CAPES of 200-600 J/KG in these areas. Thus isolated
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. Numerous
rain showers are expected in the mountains as well as the Okanogan
and Methow Valleys today with scattered showers elsewhere. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An unstable atmosphere this afternoon under a cold
trough will promote increasing showers as well as isolated
thunderstorms. These storms will be focused mainly over the
Cascades, mountains near the Canadian Border, and over the Blue
Mountains. However can not completely rule out a thunderstorm at
any of the TAF sites. But given low probability of one storm
impacting a TAF site left mention out of forecast with CB cloud
group mentioned. The showers should begin to decrease after 03z
Saturday with the loss of daytime heating. As the low moves east
Saturday morning a band of showers will rotate south out of Canada
into Central and Northeast Washington and the North Idaho
Panhandle 12-18z Sat. Abundant low level moisture and rain may lead
to MVFR conditions at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 59 39 54 43 67 46 / 50 50 80 60 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 60 39 53 46 63 47 / 50 60 80 70 40 10
Pullman 55 37 53 43 62 44 / 50 50 80 60 20 10
Lewiston 60 42 62 48 70 49 / 40 50 70 50 20 0
Colville 61 40 57 47 74 46 / 70 60 80 60 20 10
Sandpoint 60 38 53 45 60 45 / 70 70 80 70 50 20
Kellogg 56 39 49 42 56 44 / 70 80 80 80 70 10
Moses Lake 64 44 67 48 76 50 / 30 40 40 10 10 0
Wenatchee 62 45 64 49 76 52 / 50 50 20 10 0 0
Omak 62 44 65 46 78 47 / 60 60 60 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1216 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
TODAY...THEN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DAKOTAS...AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MINNESOTA.
REGARDING THE DEEP TROUGH...500MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 2 BELOW
NORMAL. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PROFILER AND RADAR DATA
SHOWED AN 850MB JET OF 30-40 KT FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND WARMTH. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED
850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C IN THIS JET AREA...COMPARED TO 14C AT DLH AND
LA CROSSE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS IS QUITE INTERESTING...WITH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE...I.E. VALUES GREATER THAN 1 INCH...SITTING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. VALUES DROP TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER
MUCH OF KANSAS...MISSOURI AND IOWA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER
MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MINNESOTA WHERE VALUES ARE 1.25 TO
1.5 INCHES. THIS MAXIMA OF MOISTURE IS FUELING CONVECTION THAT HAS
FIRED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL DPVA FORCED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE
ARE ALSO ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PROGGED TO
FLATTEN OUT SOME...IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME FORM OF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST BECAUSE
OF THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE IS CRITICAL TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SINCE IT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE...GRADUALLY SPREADING CAPPING NORTHWARD
AND BRING IN THE DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SEEN TO OUR SOUTH.
FOR THIS MORNING...INITIAL ELEVATED ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION NORTH OF I-94
WHERE 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE A TREND THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE CONVECTION TO LIFT
NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 WHERE DPVA
FROM THE SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH CONTINUED 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
BUILDING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATING THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE
TRACK. IN FACT...THE OVERALL FORCING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FAIRLY
WEAK...AND AS SUCH KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20-40 RANGE.
SHOULD WE GET SOME STORMS IN OUR AREA...MAINLY JUST TAYLOR COUNTY
WOULD HAVE A SHOT TO SEE SEVERE CONVECTION...IN THE 21-03Z WINDOW
WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE QUIET WITH THE MAX
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BREAK UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
15-16C BY 18Z...DRY GROUND AND A BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 80S...WITH MOST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A FEW READINGS AROUND 90 ARE POSSIBLE TOO. THE
COMBINATION OF A WARMER DAY TODAY AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE STAYING UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A WARM
SECTOR FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PROGGED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WELL AGREED UPON TO AT MOST IN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION REACH ALBERT LEA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS MEANS ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A SLIM SHOT OF
SOMETHING COMING INTO SOUTHEAST MN VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY...IF THE FRONT CAN CONVECT AND CONVECTION CAN SPREAD EAST
FAST ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...WITH THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER THE AREA (LOWEST ON SATURDAY)...ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. 850MB TEMPS OF 17-19C ON BOTH DAYS...THE DRY AIRMASS AND DRY
GROUND...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALL FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
MIXING. SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
ALTHOUGH 850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WOULD NORMALLY NOT SUPPORT
RECORD LEVELS...ONLY BEING 1-1.5 ABOVE NORMAL...LA CROSSE AND
ROCHESTER RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 93-96 RANGE. THEREFORE...WE MAY
GET CLOSE TO RECORDS. ANTICIPATING LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE
60S...AIDED BY THE DRY AIRMASS. DID STAY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS/GROUND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST. WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO PARALLEL THE UPPER
FLOW...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN MORE TO EITHER
RIGHT ON THE FRONT OR POST-FRONTAL. THERE ARE DECENT MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS THAT COME INTO THE AREA...ABOUT 50-70 METERS IN 12
HOURS AT 500MB. THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
SURGING UP TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT PLUS THE INCREASING
LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT ALL SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM BLACK RIVER FALLS TO LA CROSSE AND
OELWEIN. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS MEAGER...DUE TO THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
POST-FRONTAL. IN FACT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE 0-6KM SHEAR
IS ONLY 20-25KT. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5-4 KM AND MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ARE NOT FAVORABLE EITHER FOR SEVERE. MAYBE AT MOST WE
END UP WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 60S
ON TAP...PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE 08.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
AND GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIAL
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AT 12Z MONDAY SHOULD HEAD UP INTO ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY BY
TUESDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AGAIN
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINTAINED 60 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS A RESULT...WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS. IN FACT...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE LOCATIONS LIKE
ROCHESTER COULD END UP DRY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR...ALONG WITH
SUBSIDENCE...THEN COMES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DID
MAINTAIN SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS UP...BUT LATER FORECASTS
MAY BE ABLE TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD
END UP AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY...DUE TO
850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C TO 6-10C. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
DOMINATES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. UPPER
RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD UP INTO OUR AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO AT LEAST
NORMAL BY THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SHAPING
UP AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...LIKE THIS WEEKEND...WELL AGREED UPON
BY THE LAST COUPLE ECMWF...GFS AND CFS RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHT ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO CREATE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND LOOSE THE GUSTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND SHOULD SEE THE GUSTS DEVELOP AGAIN AT BOTH SITES
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH. ONCE THESE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04