Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/07/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1014 AM PDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
OVERNIGHT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD. SOME WET SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT DOWN
TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET.
THERE WAS 2 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL SNOW REPORTED AT KINGVALE BY A
SPOTTER. WEB CAMS AT LASSEN NATIONAL PARK SHOW SOME ACCUMULATED
SNOW AS WELL. SOME SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LINGERED INTO THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING BUT HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE BACK END OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH SOME
SOLAR HEATING WILL GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. BOTH
THE HRRR AND WRF MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
AROUND SUNSET.
OTHER MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS BREEZY WINDS PICKING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL AND ARE ABOUT 3 TO 12 DEGREES LOWER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER THOUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL SUN AND AIRMASS WARMING.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 70S. CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
MAY MAKE VIEWING THE VENUS TRANSIT THIS AFTERNOON TRICKY. THERE
SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE VALLEY TO ALLOW AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE TRANSIT TO BE SEEN. THE TRANSIT BEGINS
AROUND 3 PM PDT. ANYONE VIEWING THE TRANSIT IS URGED TO USE PROPER
EYE PROTECTION. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. EK
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES NORCAL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHERN SHASTA
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. WARMING IN TEMPS
MAY RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THIS POINT. SLH
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE VALLEY...INCREASING N TO NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S STORM. TAF SITES SHOULD GENERALLY SEE
WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE SIERRA AND SIERRA
FOOTHILLS...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW CIGS AND
SHOWERS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TODAY FROM NEAR 5000 FT TO ABOVE
6500 FT. HIGH-ELEVATION SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY TONIGHT.
-DVC
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1009 PM PDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH OVER NORCAL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE NEAR THE
COTTONWOOD AND REDDING AREAS WHERE NUMEROUS HAIL REPORTS AROUND
ONE INCH OR QUARTER SIZE WERE REPORTED. ALSO SEVERAL REPORTS OF
SIGNIFICANT HAIL GROUND ACCUMULATION WERE REPORTED UP 2 INCHES IN
DEPTH. PRECIP HAS TRANSITIONED EAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
CURRENT SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET. SNOTEL SITES SHOW 3-5 INCHES
ABOVE 8000 FEET SINCE ABOUT SUNSET. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CONTINUES OVER THE SIERRA ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH 5 AM. WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
20 MPH AND WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPIRED AT 8PM. HRRR AND NAM BOTH
INDICATE SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY TO ROTATE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WAS ALREADY NOTED WITH ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING
NEAR RED BLUFF AND SHOULD SEE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP AT LEAST OVER
THE SIERRA AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST INTO
THE GREAT BASIN TOMORROW...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNUSUAL...BUT NOT UNPRECEDENTED...JUNE WX FOR INTERIOR NORCAL
TODAY WITH A MINUS 3 STANDARD DEVIATION 500 MBS HEIGHT
ANOMALY...AND A PW PLUME UP TO 175% PERCENT OF NORMAL AFFECTING
THE AREA. THE FRONTAL PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH
GENERALLY STRATIFORM PRECIP...BUT ALSO A LINE OF STRONGER CELLS
ALONG THE FRONT. TO THE W OVER THE COASTAL RANGE...CONVECTIVE
CELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW +/- CG STRIKES AS THE
500 MBS HEIGHT ANOMALY APPROACHES THE AREA. DARKENING IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG VORT MAX JUST OFF THE SFO COAST
WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE SFO BAY AREA BY 00Z TUE
AND THEN NEWD TOWARDS THE CA/OR/NV BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY SHEARED VORTICITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF
WHICH MOVES NEWD ACROSS NORCAL ON TUE. LAPSE RATES FROM BUFKIT
DATA ARE FORECAST TO STEEPEN TO >7 DEG/KM AFTER 00Z...SO THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE EARLY
EVENING HRS. THE BETTER 0-1 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE N END OF THE SAC VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS WELL...AND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MINIMAL
VALUES FOR WEAK ROTATING CELLS. THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AND
TERRAIN FORCING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NRN SAC VLY AS THE
UP VALLEY FLOW INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING VORT MAX/UPPER TROF.
WRF CAPES ARE ALSO MAXIMIZED OVER THE NRN ZONES. IF HEATING WAS
STRONGER TODAY...WE WOULD HAVE STRONGER INSTABILITY...BUT THE
CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN THICK ENOUGH TODAY TO LIMIT DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...THE DOWNSIDE FOR TODAY`S CONVECTIVE THREAT.
WITH THE APPROACHING TROF/VORT MAX...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH 00Z AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IN THE WAKE
OF THE VORT MAX EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVSRY CRITERIA WINDS FROM LAKE
CO...THROUGH THE CARQUINEZ AND INTO THE SRN SAC AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY.
WE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SIERNEV AS
SNOW LEVELS LOWER OVERNITE AS THE TROF MOVES INLAND. OUR SNOW
TOTAL GRID HAS ABOUT 4-5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE SNOW LEVEL MAY LOWER TO 5000
TO 5500 FT EARLY TUE MORNING...BUT LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED TO FALL
TUE MORNING. WITH THE TROF AXIS STILL NOT EAST OF THE SIERNEV BY 12Z
TUE...PRECIP IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE SIERNEV FOR MOST OF
THE NITE...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR/WRF INDICATE A DECREASE IN PRECIP
THIS EVENING AFTER FROPA.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NRN ZONES SHOULD END ON TUE AS DRIER
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORCAL BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. TUE WILL
BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY SOME
10-20 DEG BELOW NORMAL...COOL FOR PRIMARY ELECTION DAY IN NORCAL.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WED AND MAX TEMPS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...CLOSER TO NORMAL.
THE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO CYCLONIC ON THU AS THE NEXT GOA UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE B.C. COAST. CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES...N OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE N ON THU. ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
DAY RESULTING IN A DELTA BREEZE...BUT TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO LOWER
MAX TEMPS AWAY FROM THE DELTA. JHM
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES NORCAL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHERN SHASTA
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. WARMING IN TEMPS
MAY RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THIS POINT. SLH
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
FOR MOUNTAINS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SIERRA AS RAIN
SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN TURNING TO SNOW AS SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 5500-6500 FT. MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH RIDGETOP GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET
FOR THE WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WESTERN PLUMAS
COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1130 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST COLORADO (THE WESTERN HALF OF MOFFAT AND RIO BLANCO
COUNTIES). IN THESE AREAS...WIND GUSTS WILL BE APPROACHING HIGH
WIND CRITERIA THAT COINCIDES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS VERY DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH VIRGA
SHAFTS. WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 57 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THIS
AREA.
EXPANDED THE AREAS OF THE WIND ADVISORY EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF MOFFAT AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE GRAND VALLEY. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...BUT HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT
PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH IS LIKELY. DOUGLAS PASS...GREAT
DIVIDE RAWS AND THE LOMA/MACK TOWNS ARE TYPICALLY WIND PRONE
AREAS AND ELECTED TO INCLUDE THESE SPOTS IN THE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
TODAY: EXPECTING WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS A
STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWEEPS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY. THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SYSTEMS APPROACH. GFS40 INDICATED 7H WINDS UP TO 50 KTS ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING
THOUGH THE NAM12 WAS MORE SUBDUED WITH PEAK 7H WINDS NEAR 40 KTS.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS FAVORED...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY
WINDY TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO WHICH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE.
IN ADDITION...THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW AND THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH RELEGATING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR DATA SUGGESTS PW
VALUES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SO EXPECT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH BASED...PRODUCING MORE WIND THAN RAIN.
7H TEMPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REMAIN SIMILARLY WARM WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY SO FOUND THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS PUZZLING.
CONSEQUENTLY...BOOSTED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS NUMBERS
FOR MOST AREAS AND VERY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: THE MODELS SHOW THE COOL FRONT REACHING
OUR WESTERN EDGE BY 6 PM MDT TUE...THEN SWEEPING OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AREA-WIDE BY
SUNSET. HOWEVER AS THE WEAKENING FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
CWA...AREAS WILL REMAIN MIXED AND GUSTY AHEAD OF IT...WITH
INCREASING STABILITY IN ITS WAKE. COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.
THE FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY EARLY WED AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER A MORE
RELAXED FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER STAYS OFF THE WA/BC COAST THROUGH THU.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...THE DIP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHARPEST OVER THE NORTH WITH HIGHS ON WED 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUE`S READINGS. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE A MORE MODEST COOLING WITH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE ONLY DROPPING AROUND 3-5 DEGREES. THEN ON THU THE
WARM UP WILL ALSO BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE NORTH...BUT TEMPS WILL
STILL LAG BEHIND NUMBERS SEEN EARLY IN THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
THE GFS AND ECMWF-HIRES WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MOVE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY THEN EASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWFA BOUNDARY BY 00Z SUNDAY.
GIVEN A CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH RECENT
STORMS...THE FRONTS PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT BUT SOME RELIEF FROM THE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
STRONG PREFRONTAL WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM 18Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
03Z THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST PEAK WIND GUSTS G40 KTS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS
INCLUDES THE KVEL TAF SITE. WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG FOR
KGJT...KRIL...AND KEGE WITH G35 KTS MORE COMMON. MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD TODAY. LOCAL
VISIBILITY OF 3-5SM IN BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UTAH DESERTS AND THE GRAND VALLEY INCLUDING KGJT.
SHORT LIVED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT MON JUNE 2012
UPDATED TO INCLUDE UT FIRE ZONES 486 AND 487 WHOSE FUELS WERE
UPDATED TO CRITICAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ZONES INCLUDED IN THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUE ARE COLORADO...200-201-202-203-207-
290-292-293...AND IN UTAH 483-484-486-487.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NE
UTAH AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO. BUT ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...NEAR AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
AND DRY LIGHTNING.
AFTER A COOL DOWN AND LESS WIND ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE UTAH
AND NW COLORADO.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203-207-
290-292-293.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003-006-020.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ483-484-486-
487.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023>025-027-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL/ELH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...MC/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1027 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST COLORADO (THE WESTERN HALF OF MOFFAT AND RIO BLANCO
COUNTIES). IN THESE AREAS...WIND GUSTS WILL BE APPROACHING HIGH
WIND CRITERIA THAT COINCIDES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS VERY DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH VIRGA
SHAFTS. WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 57 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THIS
AREA.
EXPANDED THE AREAS OF THE WIND ADVISORY EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF MOFFAT AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE GRAND VALLEY. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...BUT HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT
PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH IS LIKELY. DOUGLAS PASS...GREAT
DIVIDE RAWS AND THE LOMA/MACK TOWNS ARE TYPICALLY WIND PRONE
AREAS AND ELECTED TO INCLUDE THESE SPOTS IN THE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
TODAY: EXPECTING WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS A
STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWEEPS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY. THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SYSTEMS APPROACH. GFS40 INDICATED 7H WINDS UP TO 50 KTS ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING
THOUGH THE NAM12 WAS MORE SUBDUED WITH PEAK 7H WINDS NEAR 40 KTS.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS FAVORED...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY
WINDY TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO WHICH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE.
IN ADDITION...THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW AND THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH RELEGATING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR DATA SUGGESTS PW
VALUES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SO EXPECT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH BASED...PRODUCING MORE WIND THAN RAIN.
7H TEMPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REMAIN SIMILARLY WARM WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY SO FOUND THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS PUZZLING.
CONSEQUENTLY...BOOSTED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS NUMBERS
FOR MOST AREAS AND VERY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: THE MODELS SHOW THE COOL FRONT REACHING
OUR WESTERN EDGE BY 6 PM MDT TUE...THEN SWEEPING OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AREA-WIDE BY
SUNSET. HOWEVER AS THE WEAKENING FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
CWA...AREAS WILL REMAIN MIXED AND GUSTY AHEAD OF IT...WITH
INCREASING STABILITY IN ITS WAKE. COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.
THE FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY EARLY WED AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER A MORE
RELAXED FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER STAYS OFF THE WA/BC COAST THROUGH THU.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...THE DIP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHARPEST OVER THE NORTH WITH HIGHS ON WED 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUE`S READINGS. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE A MORE MODEST COOLING WITH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE ONLY DROPPING AROUND 3-5 DEGREES. THEN ON THU THE
WARM UP WILL ALSO BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE NORTH...BUT TEMPS WILL
STILL LAG BEHIND NUMBERS SEEN EARLY IN THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
THE GFS AND ECMWF-HIRES WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MOVE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY THEN EASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWFA BOUNDARY BY 00Z SUNDAY.
GIVEN A CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH RECENT
STORMS...THE FRONTS PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT BUT SOME RELIEF FROM THE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS A
DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH NORTHEAST
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS
EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH...APPROACHING 60 MPH OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. WINDS TO THE
EAST WILL BE LESS INTENSE...THOUGH STILL BREEZY AND CAPABLE OF
GENERATING SIGNIFICANT MECHANICAL TURBULENCE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WITHOUT GENERATING ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE RESULTING
IN STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBY TO BE THE RULE OVER EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT MON JUNE 2012
UPDATED TO INCLUDE UT FIRE ZONES 486 AND 487 WHOSE FUELS WERE
UPDATED TO CRITICAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ZONES INCLUDED IN THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUE ARE COLORADO...200-201-202-203-207-
290-292-293...AND IN UTAH 483-484-486-487.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NE
UTAH AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO. BUT ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...NEAR AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
AND DRY LIGHTNING.
AFTER A COOL DOWN AND LESS WIND ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE UTAH
AND NW COLORADO.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203-207-
290-292-293.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003-006-020.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ483-484-486-
487.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023>025-027-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL/ELH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...MC/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
851 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS IT SLOWLY RETREATS TO OUR NORTHEAST. A WARM
FRONT...THEN COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF LOW ALOFT WITH SOME STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SFC CAPE 500-800 J/KG WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH SOME CELLS AS FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN RATHER LOW BETWEEN
7-8 KFT.
WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AND INTENSITY LATER THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND LOWERING CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME ISOLATED LATE WITH SIMILAR
DEPICTIONS IN HRRR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS...WITH EASTERN COASTAL
AREAS BEING THE LAST TO BECOME ISOLATED AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA IN RESPONSE TO A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE VERY SMALL AND MOST CAPE BETWEEN 300 AND 500 J/KG WILL
BE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AT THAT POINT.
NOTING THE PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG THAT FORMED LAST NIGHT OVER
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CT IN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT...HAVE
PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST IN THOSE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. DID NOT
GO WITH LOCALLY DENSE AT THIS TIME...AS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT
SUGGESTING FOG.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE WITH A
MAV/MET BLEND AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
LIFTS NE...WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD ALOFT...BUT STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT CHANCE SHRA/ISOLD TSTM BY AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE SKINNY CAPE WITH 25-35 KT OF BULK 0-6 KM
SHEAR...SO BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN 15 OR LESS. AS A
RESULT WOULD EXPECT STORMS SIMILAR TO TODAY...RELATIVELY SHALLOW
DUE TO EXCESSIVE SHEAR...BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...NOTING
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOUT 2C. A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM 825 HPA...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING...YIELDING VALUES NEAR
NORMAL.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AGAIN AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A SIMILAR SET UP TO TONIGHT. NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN
PATCHY FOG...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT OCCURRED. FOR LOWS
BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MAV WITH MET/MAV BLEND AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID/UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY SLOWLY DEPARTS...WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. DIURNAL SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH THUNDER CHANCES A BIT LOWER DUE TO WEAK TO MARGINAL
CAPES ANTICIPATED.
AS TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHEAST...LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
LOOKING AHEAD AT THE WEEKEND FORECAST...MODELS DO DIVERGE ON OVERALL
PATTERN...MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES. GFS
MUCH STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF CANADA AS IT MOVES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. SFC LOW DEEPER AS WELL. THEN NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AGAIN...TIMING...STRENGTH AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES NOTED
WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PER NAM/GFS/SREF.
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON WHERE EXACTLY BACKDOOR FRONT SETTLES SUNDAY.
FRONT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OR SAGS JUST SOUTH LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW. FRONT JUMPS
NORTH AND AREA WILL BE WARM SECTORED AS RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO
BUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BE DRY THIS TIME FRAME AS TEMPS
WARM WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS. EVENTUALLY UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH SFC COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THU AFTERNOON.
LONE TSTM IMPACTING KEWR/KJFK EARLY WILL MOVE SE AND WEAKEN.
OTHER UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER NW NJ AND IN THE CATSKILLS SHOULD
WEAKEN AND HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS AT MOST AT KEWR/KTEB AND KSWF
LATE THIS EVENING.
S-SW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...VEER W OVERNIGHT...AND
THEN BECOME NW-W 5-10 KT THU MORNING.
SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS
FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON...TOO EARLY TO MENTION
SPECIFICS OTHER THAN BKN VFR CIGS.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING
SHOWER AROUND 02Z. BR WITH MVFR VSBY ALSO POSSIBLE 08Z-12Z.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING
SHOWER AROUND 02Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY LEFTOVER EARLY EVENING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE WINDS MAINLY AT
OR BELOW 10 KT IN THE NY BIGHT REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH WINDS SO LIGHT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL...SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS IN THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.
LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUED WEAK FLOW CONTINUING THIS
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT PASSES SATURDAY...THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH THE WATERS LATER THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
WIND DIRECTIONS. FEEL WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST/NW BEHIND A
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES. HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH.
SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH MAINLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. LOCAL DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WHILE TIDAL DEPARTURES CONTINUE TO FALL...AS THE SUPPORTING NE
FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
RESIDUAL TIDAL PILING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BACK SHORE BAYS OF
NYC/NASSAU COUNTY TO HAVE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THERE
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY AS IS. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF NY HARBOR AND
ASSOCIATED BAYS/TRIBUTARIES/WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE BACK
SHORE BAYS OF SW SUFFOLK...IT APPEARS MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLDS SHOULD BE APPROACHED...AND POSSIBLY TOUCHED IN A FEW
PLACES AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THERE.
WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE...OTHER
THAN POSSIBLY A NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NYC/NASSAU COUNTY AT HIGH TIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT...COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD NO LONGER BE THREAT AFTER
TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-178-
179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
308 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2012
...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358 in Effect until 9 PM EDT...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
So far the evolution of deep moist convection has not worked out
quite as expected. It appears that our local 12 UTC 4km WRF has
initialized the best among the latest NWP guidance. It simulates
the strong convection just to our north, but keeps these cells
propagating east southeast along the cold front just to our north
(which is what has happened so far, and is supported by the analyzed
deep layer wind fields). This model also initiated convective cells
over our western zones later this afternoon as a well-defined mid
level MCV (currently over South Central AL) approaches and interacts
with the FL Panhandle sea breeze front (or any other mesoscale
boundaries). These storms, some of which could be strong to severe,
move east through the evening but weaken due to evening cooling
and/or moving into a more stable airmass, where SBCAPE values were
only about 1000 J/KG or less (based on the KTAE 18 UTC sounding, the
weak CU field observed on visible imagery, and latest RAP analyses).
Because of the complexity of this forecast, there are other
scenarios that could occur and we don`t want to minimize the threat
for severe storms with a convective watch in effect. However, recent
analyses and model output do suggest that the overall threat may be
a little less than what we expected prior to this afternoon. To
summarize, we now think the highest threat for isolated severe
storms will be in the FL Panhandle and Southeast AL this afternoon
and evening, but there is still a low-end threat elsewhere until
later this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night)...
Low end severe threat will continue into this evening, but should
end before midnight as the MCV passes southeast of the area and the
boundary layer stabilizes. PoPs are held in the likely range over
our GA zones and inland FL Big Bend north of the interstate.
Conditions will not be quite as favorable for severe weather across
the area tomorrow. The primary MCV will be southeast of the area and
there do not appear to be any others lurking upstream. However, the
frontal boundary will be pulling up stationary during the day,
roughly bisecting the forecast area from ENE to WSW, or roughly
from Savannah to Bainbridge to Pensacola. Shear values drop off
considerably. However, with northwest flow aloft and a juicy air
mass along and south of the front, we will still need pretty high
PoPs (likely to categorical) across the southeast half of the
forecast area. Some drying will occur north of the front and PoPs
taper to low end chance (30) over Quitman County. Will only include
mention of isolated T+ for the higher PoP areas. SPC has the area in
a 5% risk area east of the Apalachicola River. The front will
gradually become more diffuse as we head through Wednesday night
into Thursday. PoPs will taper from 60 far southeast to 20 far
northwest Thursday afternoon. The dry push from the northwest will
continue Thursday night and it is about that time that we will
finally see the long wave trough pull away to the northeast.
.LONG TERM (Friday through next Tuesday)...
Models continue to be in reasonably good agreement. The large scale
longwave pattern continues highly amplified highlighted by a deep
trough over extreme wrn Pac/wrn U.S, ridging over Cntrl Conus with
axis down plains, and a positively tilted trough from low well east
of Canadian Maritimes WSW into Mid South and NRN Gulf region. At
surface, front responsible for recent weather aligned WSW to ENE
across coastal Gulf anchored by lows on MS coast and well east of
GA. Thus the juxtaposition of trough/front will keep the FL counties
and S/Cntrl GA in a moist unstable onshore flow with chances of
locally heavy rainfall especially in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend.
Conversely, SE AL/SW GA will be increasingly dominated by high
pressure diving out of OH Valley and dry air overspreading NW-SE
across SE AL. Clouds and rain will keep max temps in the upper 80s
to low 90s, but higher over SE AL.
As the wrn trough moves ewd thru Intermountain region thru Fri then
thru the Plains on the weekend, Cntrl ridge builds into Ern region
while Ern trough pushes increasingly offshore beginning Friday. By
late Friday, this will push front further swd where it will likely
dissipate over the Nrn Gulf while the surface high moves Ewd into
the Wrn Atlc with local flow veering to onshore into at least
Monday. POPs will return to at or below normal, especially across
AL/GA. Both the Euro and GFS agree on a cut off low approaching
the area from the west at the end of the extended term. This
combined with moisture return on back side of high off east coast
will bring chance pops back to the forecast Mon and Tues, but
mainly for WRN Panhandle and SRN Al. With southerly flow, we will
begin trending towards warmer temps with highs into the mid 90s
and lows near 70.
&&
.MARINE (Tonight through Sunday)...
Winds are beginning to increase out over the marine area as the
gradient tightens ahead of an approaching front. Exercise caution
conditions are forecast through tonight. After that, the front will
get close enough that the gradient will weaken somewhat which will
bring winds down below headline criteria. The front is expected to
stall north of the waters tomorrow and remain in place through
Thursday before dissipating. High pressure will then build from the
Appalachians southeast to a position off the Carolina Coast over the
weekend. This will set up a period of east to southeast flow.
&&
.AVIATION (through 18Z Wednesday)...
Thunderstorms will be possible at all terminals through the
afternoon and evening hours. Initial development will be around TLH
with the other TAF sites getting in on the action a bit later on.
IFR ceilings will be possible at ABY and VLD overnight. With likely
to categorical PoPs in the forecast for Wednesday, convection will
need to be added to the terminal forecasts with the next (00Z)
package.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Red flag conditions are not expected over the next
few days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 88 72 89 70 / 50 80 60 50 30
Panama City 74 88 73 88 74 / 50 70 50 40 20
Dothan 71 90 70 92 71 / 50 50 40 30 10
Albany 71 88 69 90 69 / 70 40 40 30 10
Valdosta 70 86 69 88 69 / 70 70 50 50 40
Cross City 71 86 72 87 69 / 40 80 60 60 50
Apalachicola 74 87 73 86 73 / 50 60 60 50 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Short Term/Marine...Wool
Long Term...Block
Rest of Discussion...Camp
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1244 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2012
...Severe thunderstorm threat beginning to materialize...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
The NWS has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch through early this
evening for most of our forecast area, as it appears that scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms were beginning to develop to our
north in Central GA and AL along a cold front. We are also
concerned that isolated strong to severe storms may form in our FL
zones ahead of an approaching MCV (currently over central AL)
and/or along mesoscale boundaries like sea breeze fronts. Local
VAD wind profiles showed 0-6 km vertical wind shear magnitudes
around 35 KT, and the latest RAP SBCAPE values were a healthy
2000 J/KG in areas where CS was not dense. The 12 UTC KTAE
sounding was a bit more unstable than forecast by the NAM
yesterday, with 700-500 mb lapse rates from 6.5 to 7 deg per km.
We are doing a special Upper Air sounding to better assess the
local environemt.
Large scale forcing & mesoscale forcing, ample deep layer moisture
and potential instability, and adequate (if not spectacular) deep
layer shear will all combine for a threat of severe storms this
afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts and large hail
being the main threats. It already appears that the storms
developing to our north were exhibiting rotation and hail cores
aloft, and this should be a good proxy for what we can expect
later. Please stay tuned for the latest updates and warnings.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Fournier
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1018 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA DEVELOPED THIS EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED
TO PERSIST. EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS OVERDOING CURRENT COVERAGE BUT
STILL SUGGESTS THIS COULD LAST PAST 06Z. WITH THE SFC FRONT
SINKING INTO FLORIDA...TOOK POPS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
CWA FOR THIS EVENING BUT BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS EARLY IN
THE MORNING AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP
COULD DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD.
JUST TWEAKED TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH OVERNIGHT MINS TO SEE IF FORECAST MINS NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD ACROSS EASTERN GA.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 256 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DRY AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY
HAVE REMAINED SOUTH OF THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE
FRONT...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY COULD
ALLOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THURSDAY WILL
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE DRY AIR MASS WILL DROP DEW POINTS
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
MOISTURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GA ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY
COULD FUEL ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...AS ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. THESE TEMPS ARE A FAR CRY
FROM THIS TIME LAST YEAR WHEN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BAKED UNDER
90+ HIGHS. HAD TO TWEAK DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS AND FORECAST CONDITIONS. A FEW MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING
THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE VERY DRY DEWPOINTS...AND HAVE HAD TO
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS AS A RESULT.
31
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 256 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
LATEST GFS LOOKS A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN ECMWF WITH GULF
MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT
CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM REASONABLE AND DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE ATTM
IN LOWERING THE CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST GFS SO HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES. ONE ITEM TO MONITOR WILL BE A POSSIBLE HYBRID CAD EVENT
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEDGE
POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS SOLUTION INCLUDES THIS FEATURE... HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES
NOT. IF GUIDANCE ENDS UP COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
THEN IT MAY SERVE TO FOCUS ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE. BEING SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY... HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS AS IS.
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS OF FORECAST APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
03
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 317 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PORTION WITH
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING ITS SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH...POSITIONED
OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA BY FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOKS TO BE JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
WITH DRY MID LEVELS AND A LACK OF OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING...FEEL
WE CAN KEEP A POP FREE FORECAST FOR NOW. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A
TRANSITION DAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND RETURN FLOW OCCURS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SEE SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL FOCUS POPS ON THE WESTERN
TIER OF THE AREA WHERE BUT CAP AT LOW END CHANCE FOR NOW.
MODELS NOW COMING INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND PROVIDING
FOR A DIFFLUENT PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS SUFFICIENTLY SO THAT THE GULF WILL BE OPEN
FOR RICH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE ENTIRE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER BY THIS TIME WILL BE 1.8 TO 2 INCHES WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED CYCLE...CAPPED POPS IN THE 50S FOR NOW
BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE THESE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE RAISED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH
AND AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES
AND NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DEESE
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 753 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THE MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS. MVFR CIGS ARE LIMITED TO
EAST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT TO SEE LOWER CIGS AT
THE TAF SITES IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME. WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THOUGH...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS TO LAST LONG INTO THE
MORNING AND SHOULD BREAK OUT TO SCT-BKN060 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE FORECAST. NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND AND VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS THROUGH
06Z THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 60 83 60 88 / 20 10 0 0
ATLANTA 63 82 64 86 / 5 5 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 53 78 54 81 / 20 10 5 0
CARTERSVILLE 60 82 58 86 / 10 5 5 0
COLUMBUS 66 86 66 90 / 5 5 5 0
GAINESVILLE 60 80 61 84 / 20 5 5 0
MACON 64 85 63 89 / 5 5 0 0
ROME 59 83 58 88 / 10 5 5 0
PEACHTREE CITY 60 83 59 86 / 5 5 0 0
VIDALIA 67 85 67 89 / 20 10 5 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...11
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....03/DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE EVE... AND LIKELY BEYOND AS
GREAT LAKES SFC RIDGING DOMINATES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/SE AT
GENERALLY 4-9 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK TROF FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED
850MB DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS ILLINOIS. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW CONVECTION CONTINUING WITH THE
WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ILLINOIS. THE DAKOTAS WAVE WAS
TRYING TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK LOW NEAR KPPQ WITH AN INVERTED TROF
RUNNING BACK INTO CENTRAL IOWA. A LAKE INDUCED COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. A WEAK TROF
RAN FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE
IN THE 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY SOUTH WHILE 40S
AND 50S WERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE QUESTION IS WILL CONVECTION FIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THEN LINGER INTO THE EVENING. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWFA BUT TEMPERATURES THERE ARE WELL BELOW THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW WEAK CU DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. SO...UNLESS SOMETHING DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT
2.5 HRS ON SOME LOCALIZED SFC CONVERGENCE IT APPEARS THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY.
LATER TONIGHT THE DAKOTA SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY STEEP AND THERE IS NO
SFC CONVERGENCE TO HELP GET ANYTHING GOING. THUS OTHER THAN SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WELL.
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST PASSING CLOUDS FROM THE
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX. FCST MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ARE EITHER AT
OR JUST BELOW THE PROJECTED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA BY MID
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON. 08
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL FEEL A COOL NIGHT/BELOW
GUIDANCE IN STORE TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH...IF ENOUGH CLEARING
OCCURS UNDER CHANNELED VORT SHUTTLE ALOFT. SOME LOWS IN THE 40S
POSSIBLE...WITH MANY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. ONGOING DRY AIRMASS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING REGIME ON WED CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ONGOING
DRY FCST...NICE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
CLEARING AND SEASONABLY COOL AGAIN WED NIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHING WEST SOME FROM THE GRT LKS. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INLAND BUILDING UPPER JET/WAVE ENERGY TO SHUNT
BRUNT OF OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD/FRI MORNING. WHILE MCS/S FLARE UP ACRS
THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS AS A RESULT..THE LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN
DRY THRU FRI MORNING WITH SOME SLIGHT THERMAL MODERATION.
FRIDAY...BETTER TEMP RECOVER WITH INCREASED RETURN FLOW FRI WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. DESPITE SOME MODELS TILTING UPPER RIDGE
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ENOUGH TO SPILL SOME OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MN MCS ACTIVITY DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FRI OR FRI
NIGHT...FEEL THE RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS
PROPAGATION TRAJECTORY AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SAT WHILE IT/S
ROCK AND ROLL TIME FROM THE DAKOTAS...ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND TO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE NEW
ECMWF SUGGEST BUILDING HEAT DOME WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING TO
REIGN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MID AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEYS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LLVL WARM AND MORE MOIST FETCH NOW SUPPORT
HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WILL NOT ADVERTISE THOSE EXTREMES YET...BUT
THE SUNDAY WARM SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. MAIN STORM/MCS TRACK WILL LOOK TO BE MID TO LATE SUMMER-LIKE
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...TO ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION OR
EVEN FURTHER NORTH. WESTERN WAVE ENERGY SURGE TO EVENTUALLY BE
REALIZED UP OVER THE RIDGE WITH A GREATLY DAMPENING EFFECT ON
THE BLOCKED PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY STRONG AND
DEEPENING CYCLONE PUSHING ACRS CENTRAL CANADA WILL HAVE TO SHUNT A
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME...WITH THE LATEST RUNS HINTING AT
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY QUICKER GFS WITH THIS
PROCESS HAS SLOWED TO THE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN TARGETING MON NIGH
AND TUES AS THE NEXT MAIN PRECIP WINDOW. EXTENT OF CURRENTLY PROGGED
MOISTURE FETCH/CONVEYOR UP OFF THE WESTERN GULF COULD FUEL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS COMPLEX THAT GET GENERATED BY THIS FROPA.
IF FRONT STALL ACRS THE AREA...A PROLONGED STORMY PERIOD COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. 12
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
733 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT
BLOCKING UPR LO OVER NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN
THE PLAINS. SHRTWV ROTATING SWWD THRU QUEBEC IN CYC NE FLOW ALF ARND
THE CLOSED LO AND ACCOMPANYING AREA OF MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON WV IMAGE
AND SPC DIAGNOSED AREA OF KINX AOA 30 IS CAUSING SOME CLDS/A FEW
-SHRA OVER ERN LK SUP INTO ERN UPR MI INTO EARLY AFTN. ANOTHER
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS UNDER NNW FLOW IS
SINKING SSEWD THRU MN...BRINGING SOME SCT SHRA/TS TO MAINLY NE MN
UNDER STEEPER H85-5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB/AREA OF
HIER KINX NEAR 35 SHOWN ON SPC ANALYSIS/AREA OF H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH MN SHRTWV AS DIAGNOSED BY MAJORITY OF MODELS. A FEW
-SHRA ON THE ERN EDGE OF THIS AREA HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR WRN CWA
IWD. BTWN THESE TWO AREAS OF -SHRA...SFC/H85 HI PRES EXTENDING FM NW
ONTARIO THRU CNTRL LK SUP/UPR MI AND INTO NE WI AS WELL AS AXIS OF
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB /KINX 7/ IS
BRINGING MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WX.
TNGT...AFT ANY LINGERING DIURNAL -SHRA OVER THE W END EARLY THIS
EVNG...EXPECT A TRANQUIL NGT WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/
SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING SFC-H85 RDG AXIS OVER UPR MI. WITH MOCLR
SKIES/LGT WINDS/FCST PWAT 0.60-0.75 INCH ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NGT
AND DEWPTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID/UPR 30S THIS AFTN...EXPECT A
STEEP FALL OF TEMP TNGT BLO BULK OF GUIDANCE AND TOWARD READINGS AS
LO AS THE 30S OVER THE INTERIOR THAT WERE REPORTED THIS MRNG.
THU...UNDER RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC...SFC HI PRES
RDG AXIS WL BRING A DRY DAY TO THE CWA WITH SOME DIURNAL CU INLAND
FM LK BREEZES THAT FORM WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVHD.
WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT ARND 13C...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
AS 500MB LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY...STRONG OMEGA BLOCKING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LESS AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. STRONG 500MB LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING
ALBERTA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING EASTWARD TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPPER MI WILL BE LOCATED ON THE DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE DE-AMPLIFYING
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG 500MB LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP A RIDGING PATTERN
OVER UPPER MI ALOFT...WITH CORRESPONDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO
FLATTEN...SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEGIN
IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING
TO TRAVEL JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS WAA AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE TO 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS FAR AS
CONVECTION...DESPITE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE CWA...GFS MEAN
LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE /500-1000 J/KG/ AND
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE FAVORABLE OVER UPPER MI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR AND FRONTOGENESIS COULD STILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS BEING SAID...INCREASED POP VALUES TO LIKELY OVER AREAS OF BEST
FORCING...WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN MODERATE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES /30-40KTS/ AND A MORE FAVORABLE LOOKING CAPE
PROFILE WITH THIS LAST MODEL RUN...NEXT UPDATES MAY DECIDE TO GO
LIKELY TSRA AS WELL. REGARDLESS...THINK MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN. GFS BULLSEYES WELL OVER 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI...THOUGH REST OF MODELS SHOW MUCH LOWER VALUES WITH
THE MAIN PRECIP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A COMBINATION
OF THE NAM/ECMWF AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TO DERIVE QPF. BEST FORCING
AND MOISTURE WILL THEN EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST SATURDAY...WITH
SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF RAIN FAR EAST DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REGAIN CONTROL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT RESULTING LAKE BREEZES
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. AS
LAKE BREEZES CONVERGE IN THE AFTERNOON...WARM UNSTABLE AIR INTERIOR
WEST COULD RISE AND SPAWN A FEW TSRA/SHRA. EXACT SET UP AND LOCATION
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CAPE VALUES /800-1100 J/KG ML CAPE/ AND HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND.
MEANWHILE...STRONG 500MB LOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF TSRA/SHRA DURING PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. AFTER
PASSAGE...DRIER SOUTHERLY AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO UPPER
MI...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WI BORDER TO RISE TO THE UPPER
80S. TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOLER AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...500MB LOW WILL HAVE REACHED LAKE WINNIPEG...WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PROTRUDING AHEAD OF IT AND STRETCHING DOWN INTO
TEXAS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER UPPER MI WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD...SO WILL
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT...TRAVERSING
UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ ARE A GOOD
INDICATOR THAT TSRA ACTIVITY COULD VERY WELL BE PRESENT. 1000-2000
J/KG ML CAPE VALUES ALONG WITH A FAT CAPE PROFILE ALSO SUPPORT THIS
IDEA. SINCE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY INCONSISTENT ON EXACT TIMING FOR THE
PRECIP REACHING AND EXITING UPPER MI...WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME...WITH BEST FORCING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXITING EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT...BOTH EXTENDING FROM THE SAME 500MB LOW /NOW
OVER JAMES BAY/...WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THEN TRAVERSING UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL CU DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING LAKE SUP THRU THU NGT...EXPECT WINDS LESS
THAN 20 KTS. ALTHOUGH A PAIR OF LO PRES SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI INTO SAT AND AGAIN ON MON...THE HI
STABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATERS WILL HOLD WIND SPEEDS
TO NO HIER THAN 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
317 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA AND RDG IN THE PLAINS.
UPR MI IS LOCATED ON THE CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS WITHIN THE NNW
FLOW...WITH ACCOMPANYING N-S ORIENTED H85 TROF STRETCHING FM NW
ONTARIO ACRS THE WRN CWA INTO WI BTWN ACYC OVER NW MN AND ANOTHER IN
ONTARIO JUST NE OF LK SUP. SINCE THIS TROF IS ALSO UNDER AN AXIS OF
HIER MID LVL MSTR/STEEPER LAPSE RATES...THERE HAD BEEN A FEW -SHRA
INTO THIS MRNG UNDER AREA OF PERSISTENT H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC BEST
HIGHLIGHTED BY RECENT ECMWF RUNS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MORE SCT
-SHRA HAVE DVLPD OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE. MORE NMRS CU ARE ALSO PRESENT OVER
THE E WHERE A BAND OF MID CLD DRIFTED WWD INTO THAT AREA FM ONTARIO.
BUT RATHER STABLE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB SO FAR E OF UPR
JET AXIS WL LIKELY INHIBIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY SHRA THAT
MIGHT DVLP IN THIS AREA BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT ANY -SHRA THAT DVLP
THIS AFTN TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVNG AS BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HINTS UPR JET AXIS WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE W AND RESULT IN WEAKENING
H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/INCRSG UPR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LK SUP
CLOSER TO MORE WELL DEFINED SHRTWV STRADDLING THE NW ONTARIO/MN
BORDER. WITH SFC HI PRES/LGT WINDS OVER UPR MI TNGT...EXPECT MIN
TEMPS TO FALL AT LEAST TO OR A FEW DEGREES BLO LO TEMPS THE READINGS
THIS MRNG AS PWAT IS FCST TO BE A BIT LOWER AT 6/12Z THAN THIS MRNG.
SINCE SOME FOG DID FORM THIS MRNG WHERE RA HAD FALLEN YDAY AFTN...
OPTED TO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE
THERE IS A BETTER CHC OF SOME -SHRA THIS AFTN AND CONDITIONS FOR
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT.
WED...12Z GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING TRACK OF
SHRTWV NOW IN NW ONTARIO ARPCHG NRN MN. THE NAM INDICATES THIS
DISTURBANCE/ACCOMPANYING H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC WL TRACK A BIT FARTHER
TO THE E THAN THE GFS/CNDN...WHICH SHOW FOCUS OF FORCING HOLDING
MAINLY IN NW WI/MN. GIVEN THE UPR BLOCK OVER SE CANADA AND SHRTWVS
NOTED ON WV IMAGERY SHIFTING WWD THRU QUEBEC...FEEL THE FARTHER W
GFS/CNDN ARE PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK. IN FACT...THE CNDN MODEL
HINTS SOME -SHRA MIGHT IMPACT THE FAR E ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES NOW IN QUEBEC. SO TENDED TO RESTRICT POPS FOR
INSTABILITY AFTN -SHRA ON WED TO THE FAR W AND THE E...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE CNTRL UNDER ACYC AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
UPPER MI WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIRLY BENIGN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. WITH LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUING...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO BE PREDOMINANT IN THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DIURNAL CONVECTION DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. BEST FORCING REMAINS IN THE INTERIOR WEST OF
UPPER MI...SO IF ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING THIS IDEA AS WELL. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THESE SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY SET UP
IF THEY DO HAPPEN...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES. SUPPORT
PREVIOUS FORECASTS DECISION TO LEAVE OUT MENTION TSRA DUE TO LOW CAPE
VALUES /LESS THAN 300 J/KG/ AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES /5 TO 6 C/KM/.
LOOKING AT TOTAL TOTALS...STRONG STABLE LAYER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS
WELL AS UPPER MI WILL SUPPRESS NEEDED LIFT FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN UPPER MI
FRIDAY...AND TRAVERSING THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND
INCOMING WAA /AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/ WILL CAUSE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH
UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS FOR TIMING OF THIS PRECIP WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE GFS AND GEM BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIP WILL NOT ENTER WESTERN UPPER MI UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT QVECTOR CONV AND WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
COULD MEAN THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA.
AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AND PICK UP SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON /BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
SUSTAINED/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER AIR TO PULL INTO UPPER
MI...WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 15C ON SATURDAY...AND 20+C ON
SUNDAY.
AFTER THE EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA MOVING SE/
COULD ALLOW FOR LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH
UNCERTAIN ON THE EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR PLACEMENT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCES. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY -SHRA AND EVEN A TS ARE POSSIBLE AT IWD
LATE THIS AFTN ALONG LK BREEZE BNDRY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT
WINDS TO PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD WITH WEAK
HI PRES OVER LAKE SUP. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
SOME FOG THAT COULD FORM AT IWD OVERNGT IF SOME -SHRA DO IMPACT THAT
LOCATION THIS AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
VERY QUIET MARINE PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THU NIGHT. A QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS LK SUPERIOR ON FRI...BRINGING
A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 20 KTS OVER AT LEAST THE EAST HALF. LOOK FOR
A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE TO DOMINATE ON SAT. A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 20
KTS WILL DEVELOP ON SUN UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS HI RETREATING TO THE E AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
330 PM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
A COMPLEX PERIOD IS AHEAD WHILE A NEGATIVELY-TILTED 500-HPA TROUGH
AFFECTS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS WILL BE THE
MAIN ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH.
AS OF 21 UTC...CONVECTION IS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BUOYANCY WITH ONLY
500 J/KG OR LESS OF MLCAPE PER RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THIS
IS BEING COMPENSATED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OVER 50 KT. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS STORMS RACE TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MT THROUGH THE EVENING. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGES SHOW A SOLID AREA
OF DRY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL AIR FROM BILLINGS NORTH TO NEAR HAVRE
AS OF 21 UTC...AND THAT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A DETRIMENT TO MUCH
DEVELOPMENT TOO FAR EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT. HOWEVER...ONCE WE
HEAD INTO THE EVENING...OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST COULD
CONGLOMERATE AND ENHANCE THE WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT IS ON TARGET FOR BILLINGS BEFORE 06 UTC. MOST SOUNDINGS FROM
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE AT LEAST 40 KT OF WIND WITHIN 2000
FT AGL OF THE SURFACE AT BILLINGS BY 06 UTC. IF THERE IS ANY KIND
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
THEN HIGH WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL DOWNSTREAM OF ANY STORMS. THAT MAY
REQUIRE SOME MESOSCALE-BASED FORECAST UPDATES THIS EVENING...WITH
CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING ANYTHING MORE THAN A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THAT WITHIN OUR CURRENT FORECAST PRODUCTS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT...THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF GETTING
SOME HIGH-BASED CONVECTION GIVEN INTENSE SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY
BE ABLE TO REMOVE MLCIN DESPITE 700-HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE +14 C
RANGE. SOME RUNS OF THE HRRR AND EVEN THE 12 AND 18 UTC NAM MODEL
SOLUTIONS PROVIDE EVIDENCE OF THIS CONVECTIVE RISK. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING WITH THE GRADIENT AND MIXING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF MT AS OF MID AFTERNOON...AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET OF 50 KT OR MORE WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. MODEL PROJECTIONS
OF 500 M AGL WINDS IN THE 35 KT RANGE IMPLY SURFACE WINDS MAY END
UP VERY NEAR AND LARGELY JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA...BUT THIS
WILL REQUIRE CLOSE OBSERVATIONAL MONITORING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ON WED...THE 500-HPA TROUGH WILL HEAD NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA
AND WE WILL HAVE A DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THERMAL PROFILES BETWEEN THE 12 UTC MODELS
SINCE THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT COOLER ALOFT. WE LEANED TOWARD A BIT
WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW...BUT WE DID NOT GO
AS WARM AS THE 12 UTC GFS-BASED MOS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
BY THU...A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAY GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT. THERE HAS
BEEN A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS MOISTURE
TO ARRIVE LATE WED NIGHT INTO THE DAY THU...BUT SOME QUESTIONS DO
EXIST WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST IT MAY END UP. SCHULTZ/CHURCH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED.
FRIDAY WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL DAY...AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD...WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE BY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO GENERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE AND SHEAR
VALUES DO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS INDICATE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. INCREASED
SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...SO KEPT SLIGHT
POPS IN FOR EASTERN ZONES. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROPAGATE
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH MONTANA THIS
WEEKEND. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW.
TEMPS AT 700 MB DROP BELOW 0C BY LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN THE
-2C TO 0C RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 60S AND
70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
CONTINUED THE UPWARD POPS TREND SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
ROUTES INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A
ROUNDUP TO HARDIN TO SHERIDAN LINE. ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY BRIEFLY
PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ROUTES OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ON
TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
KBIL WEST. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/072 047/075 050/087 055/070 047/064 047/073 051/078
21/N 01/U 12/T 44/T 54/T 32/T 12/T
LVM 046/066 036/072 042/079 046/064 041/057 039/070 041/079
52/T 01/U 13/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 13/T
HDN 053/075 046/076 048/090 053/074 048/066 046/074 048/078
11/N 01/B 12/T 33/T 44/T 32/T 12/T
MLS 061/076 052/077 053/091 058/078 049/070 048/074 050/083
21/N 13/T 12/T 23/T 43/T 32/T 12/T
4BQ 059/076 050/076 052/090 056/079 049/069 047/073 048/080
21/N 23/T 12/T 23/T 44/T 32/T 12/T
BHK 062/079 050/073 051/085 057/079 049/068 047/071 047/078
22/T 25/T 32/T 22/T 44/T 32/T 12/T
SHR 049/072 045/074 049/086 051/075 046/067 043/070 045/074
21/U 11/B 12/T 24/T 53/T 32/T 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 28-34-39>42-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1129 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
THIS WILL BE A CHALLENGING FORECAST DAY OUT AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500-HPA TROUGH THAT IS ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME IT REACHES WESTERN MT TONIGHT. THIS
SITUATION IS DRIVING SOME VERY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR INTO THE AREA...
WITH 700-HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +14 TO +15 C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 90S F ON THE PLAINS...OR AT LEAST IT WILL IF
THE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA MOVE OUT. THAT IS
THE ONLY THING KEEPING US FROM FORECASTING EVEN WARMER HIGHS. THE
12 UTC NAM AND LAST SEVERAL RAP SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT MIXING MAY
DRIVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY A LOT LOWER THAN WE
ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING AS WELL...AS DRY AIR SURGES UP INTO OUR
AREA AS A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS WEST-NORTHWEST OF BILLINGS. THE
12 UTC GFS MAINTAINS MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH 00 UTC...AND
BASED ON OBSERVATION TRENDS...THAT MAY BE MORE CORRECT. THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THOUGH BECAUSE IT HAVE IMPACT
ON MOST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS ALSO TRICKY...BUT SINCE SEVERAL MODELS ARE
STILL GENERATING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF BILLINGS DURING THE 21
TO 00 UTC TIME FRAME...WE WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE MENTION THERE. A
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST EVEN SOUTH OF LIVINGSTON...SO A
MINOR EXPANSION OF OUR EXPLICIT SEVERE MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS
BEING MADE THIS MORNING.
WE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TODAY/S FORECAST...THOUGH NOTE THAT
WE DID ISSUE FLOOD WARNINGS ON THE CLARKS FORK AND BOULDER RIVERS
THIS MORNING DUE TO MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
UPPER LOW...SEEN SPINNING JUST S OF THE ALEUTIANS ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST ON
THU. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES E TOWARD THE AREA. THE SYSTEM...OR UPPER
LOW...WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
FOLLOW THE SYSTEM ON MON AND WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL
FLOW FOR TUE.
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS OVER SE MT THU AND THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOISTURE. HAD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...ALTHOUGH THE GEM AND ECMWF
SUGGESTED POSSIBLE CAPPING IN THE SE. RAISED TEMPERATURES SOME MORE
ON FRI WITH GOOD MIXING TO BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB. SOME AREAS MAY
APPROACH 90 DEGREES. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRI
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM/S 700 MB FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. SUN LOOKED LIKE A COOLER AND LESS UNSTABLE
DAY...BUT STILL UNSETTLED...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES ON SUN WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN ZERO AND -2 DEGREES C. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
60S. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON. HAD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS THE
AIRMASS WARMS AND BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
EASTERN ROUTES INTO THIS EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO RED LODGE LINE. ANY
THUNDERSTORM MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS DIMINISHES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SWITCH TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KTS POSSIBLE FROM
KLVM TO KBIL AFTER 03Z. INTERMITTENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 054/072 047/075 050/087 055/071 048/064 047/071
2/T 21/N 01/B 12/T 33/T 33/W 32/W
LVM 086 046/066 036/073 042/079 046/066 042/057 039/066
3/T 52/W 01/B 12/T 43/T 43/W 32/W
HDN 096 053/075 046/076 048/090 053/075 049/066 046/073
1/N 11/N 01/B 12/T 22/T 33/W 22/W
MLS 098 060/077 050/077 053/091 058/078 053/070 048/071
2/T 21/N 12/T 22/T 22/T 33/W 32/W
4BQ 094 057/076 049/076 051/090 056/081 050/069 047/071
2/T 21/N 23/T 22/T 22/T 32/W 22/W
BHK 092 060/076 048/073 050/085 057/080 050/068 047/068
2/T 22/T 24/T 32/T 22/T 33/W 32/W
SHR 091 049/072 044/073 046/086 051/076 047/067 043/069
2/T 11/U 11/B 12/T 23/T 33/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1142 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES OMEGA BLOCK UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. WIND
SPEEDS COULD INCREASE A BIT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN CONUS. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINS VERY WEAK AS A RESULT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY
REMAINING TO THE WEST...NORTH...AND EAST OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...BUT
ALSO SHOWS A BROAD AXIS OF MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE SURFACE WIND ACROSS OUR CWA
REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A RESULT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH STRETCHING
DEFORMATION FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRIMARY AXIS OF DIFFLUENCE AND
RESULTANT DEFORMATION REMAINS NORTH OF NEBRASKA...SOMEWHAT
INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION...EVIDENT ON RAP ANALYSIS DATA WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION ALONG THE 310K SURFACE...AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IS
PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH OMEGA FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION TO EXTEND
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. KUEX
IS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY WITH THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS ACTIVITY JUST SOUTHWEST OF KONL AS OF 1240Z. DEEP LAYER
MUCAPE VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE VERY
LOW PER THE SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE...WITH PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
LAPS AND RAP ANALYSIS ALSO SUPPORTING THIS. THAT BEING SAID THERE
IS APPARENTLY JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR OCCASIONAL CG PRODUCTION
WITH THE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF KONL. WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
DIFFLUENCE AND RESULTANT DEFORMATION REMAINING NORTH OF OUR
AREA...AND WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM OUR AREA...THE CURRENT FEELING IS THIS CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OUR CWA...DESPITE CURRENT STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTH.
GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR THIS
MORNING WITH INCREASING CIRRUS NOTED NEAR KODX DUE TO THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE SOME CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM
ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE LOWERED THE DEW POINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT THE
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS TO THE EAST A LITTLE AS
WELL AS HAS LESS AMPLITUDE. A SURFACE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST BUT
REMAINS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE WARM AND
WITH MIXING DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN AND HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS
AGAIN. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT ONLY MOVES
SLOWLY TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH.
FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED TO THE
EAST AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z FRIDAY...SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE PRESENT TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE VERY HIGH MUCH ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY DUE
TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED POPS AND
LIMITED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF FORECAST AREA...NEAR
THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STRONGER...UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTH
WEST. THIS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BREAK
DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...STEERING A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WINDS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH WILL
ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL BUMP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN PRESENT THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TIMING BETWEEN EC/GFS
FAIRLY SIMILAR AT THIS POINT...AND MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BUT AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET
START TO THE MONTH OF JUNE...SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND FORCING ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THE COMBINATION OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHLIGHT THIS IN HWO.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM/AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
751 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN CONUS. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINS VERY WEAK AS A RESULT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY
REMAINING TO THE WEST...NORTH...AND EAST OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...BUT
ALSO SHOWS A BROAD AXIS OF MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE SURFACE WIND ACROSS OUR CWA
REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A RESULT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH STRETCHING
DEFORMATION FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRIMARY AXIS OF DIFFLUENCE AND
RESULTANT DEFORMATION REMAINS NORTH OF NEBRASKA...SOMEWHAT
INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION...EVIDENT ON RAP ANALYSIS DATA WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION ALONG THE 310K SURFACE...AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IS
PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH OMEGA FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION TO EXTEND
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. KUEX
IS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY WITH THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS ACTIVITY JUST SOUTHWEST OF KONL AS OF 1240Z. DEEP LAYER
MUCAPE VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE VERY
LOW PER THE SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE...WITH PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
LAPS AND RAP ANALYSIS ALSO SUPPORTING THIS. THAT BEING SAID THERE
IS APPARENTLY JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR OCCASIONAL CG PRODUCTION
WITH THE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF KONL. WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
DIFFLUENCE AND RESULTANT DEFORMATION REMAINING NORTH OF OUR
AREA...AND WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM OUR AREA...THE CURRENT FEELING IS THIS CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OUR CWA...DESPITE CURRENT STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTH.
GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR THIS
MORNING WITH INCREASING CIRRUS NOTED NEAR KODX DUE TO THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGRI
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE SOME CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM
ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE LOWERED THE DEW POINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT THE
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS TO THE EAST A LITTLE AS
WELL AS HAS LESS AMPLITUDE. A SURFACE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST BUT
REMAINS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE WARM AND
WITH MIXING DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN AND HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS
AGAIN. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT ONLY MOVES
SLOWLY TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH.
FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED TO THE
EAST AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z FRIDAY...SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE PRESENT TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE VERY HIGH MUCH ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY DUE
TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED POPS AND
LIMITED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF FORECAST AREA...NEAR
THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STRONGER...UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTH
WEST. THIS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BREAK
DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...STEERING A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WINDS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH WILL
ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL BUMP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN PRESENT THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TIMING BETWEEN EC/GFS
FAIRLY SIMILAR AT THIS POINT...AND MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BUT AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET
START TO THE MONTH OF JUNE...SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND FORCING ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THE COMBINATION OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHLIGHT THIS IN HWO.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM/AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1024 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES, ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING EACH DAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING US SHOWERS SATURDAY BEFORE A
STRETCH OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TWEAK DIMINISHING AXIS
OF SHOWERS AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ALSO...DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL FLOAT THEIR WAY DOWN
OVERNIGHT...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...INCLUDING PROSPECT FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS.
630 PM UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATED LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...TO DETERMINISTICALLY HONE IN ON AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO RULE OUT LOCATIONS NOT LIKELY TO SEE
ANYTHING. STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO QUITE
OBVIOUS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE LAKE AND SOUTH OF THE
THRUWAY...YET MAINLY SUNNY IN BETWEEN. HRRR MODEL DOING AN
ADMIRABLE JOB PLACING CONVECTION IN AN ENHANCED LINE ALONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE...ABOUT TO SPREAD THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS...AND
HEADING SOUTH WHILE DECREASING IN COVERAGE WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT. SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
EXPECTED. WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND EVEN A BIT OF SMALL HAIL. AT THE
OFFICE WE HAD HAIL JUST A BIT BIGGER THAN THE SIZE OF A PEA AND
MOST RECENTLY UP IN ROME 1/4" HAIL OR THE SIZE OF A PEA FROM
NUMEROUS SPOTTERS. WITH VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS...NOT SURPRISING
WE WILL SEE A BIT OF HAIL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE WITH VERY
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE (INVERTED V SOUNDINGS). I AM NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TO TURN SEVERE WITH NO SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THE STORMS FOR
ANY LENGTH OF TIME. AS THESE STORMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN EXPECT
THE ACTION TO DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT QUITE AS
WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND A BIT
BETTER MIXING OFF THE DECK...DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
THURSDAY FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TRENDS IN PLACEMENT
OF VORTICITY LOBES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THOUGH THERE IS
A GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE...I PLACED
HIGHEST POPS /40-50-ISH/ ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF NY TO
CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHWARD...BASED ON THESE FACTORS...WHILE PUSHING
IT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. ALSO...I BEGAN THE INITIAL INCREASE IN
POPS A BIT EARLIER...BECAUSE OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL ALREADY BE
PRESENT IN THE MIDLEVELS IN THE MORNING...WHICH SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
WILL TAKE LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING TO BE REALIZED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY...WE STILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF THE CUT OFF
LOW ACROSS THE MARITIMES SO MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY ON. THE FREEZING LEVEL
IS ABOUT 1000 FEET HIGHER TOMORROW (6500 FEET VS. 7500 FEET)...BUT
STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
CELLS. AGAIN NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE HOWEVER BUT DEF. WORTH
A MENTION.
FRIDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DRIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT WE WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT A DRY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM I-81 WEST. WITH THAT SAID WE ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE LOW AND THE MODELS STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS EAST...TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST.
SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON PRECIP
FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. ALL THREE
MODELS (EURO/NAM/GFS) SHOW A WAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WITH SCT. SHOWERS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING THE
SLOWEST MODEL BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS NY
STATE. ACROSS PA SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIP
GETS. FOR NOW WILL COVER THIS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD FEATURES A BLDG RDG FROM THE MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE OLD
CLSD LOW AS IT DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE RDGG...STILL SOME
PSBLTY OF AFTN CONV...ESP EARLY IN THE PD AS WEAK WVS SLIDE DOWN
THE ERN SIDE OF THE RDG...AND AGAIN ON TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE AS
A STRONG WV COMES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND KICKS THE RDG TO THE
EAST. IT WILL BE WARM...AS H8 TEMPS APRCH 16C TO 18C WITH SUMMER
TIME HUMIDITY.
GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID FOR THE PD. RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BASED GUID AND THE ECMWF MAKES THIS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE XTNDD
FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVNG. ANOTHER
S/WV IS UPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO BUT CONVECTION NOT XPCTD WITH THIS
FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE MID DECK ASSCD WITH IT COMPLICATES THE FOG
FCST FOR TNGT. ATTM...WE`LL PLAY THE IDEA OF THE BKN MID DECK
SCATTERING OUT LATER TNGT WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO MOIST LOW
LVL`S AND LGT WINDS...BEST CVRG ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. ON
THURSDAY...PATCHY MVFR/IFR WILL ERODE WITH VFR BY MID TO LATE
MRNG. LIKE TDA...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DVLP ONCE AGAIN THU AFTN SO
INCLUDED PROB30`S FOR TMRW AFTN FOR -SHRA ALL LOCATIONS XCPT
RME/SYR...WHERE LAKE SHADOW MAY COME INTO PLAY. WINDS TNGT
L&V...GNRLY W TO NW ARND 10 KTS ON THU.
OUTLOOK...
THU AFTN/FRI..MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FROM FOG ESPECIALLY VALLEY TERMINALS.
SAT - MON...MAINLY VFR BUT MVFR POSSIBLE SAT IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN/MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
738 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES, ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING EACH DAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING US SHOWERS SATURDAY BEFORE A
STRETCH OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATED LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...TO DETERMINISTICALLY HONE IN ON AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO RULE OUT LOCATIONS NOT LIKELY TO SEE
ANYTHING. STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO QUITE
OBVIOUS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE LAKE AND SOUTH OF THE
THRUWAY...YET MAINLY SUNNY IN BETWEEN. HRRR MODEL DOING AN
ADMIRABLE JOB PLACING CONVECTION IN AN ENHANCED LINE ALONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE...ABOUT TO SPREAD THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS...AND
HEADING SOUTH WHILE DECREASING IN COVERAGE WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT. SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
EXPECTED. WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND EVEN A BIT OF SMALL HAIL. AT THE
OFFICE WE HAD HAIL JUST A BIT BIGGER THAN THE SIZE OF A PEA AND
MOST RECENTLY UP IN ROME 1/4" HAIL OR THE SIZE OF A PEA FROM
NUMEROUS SPOTTERS. WITH VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS...NOT SURPRISING
WE WILL SEE A BIT OF HAIL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE WITH VERY
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE (INVERTED V SOUNDINGS). I AM NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TO TURN SEVERE WITH NO SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THE STORMS FOR
ANY LENGTH OF TIME. AS THESE STORMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN EXPECT
THE ACTION TO DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT QUITE AS
WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND A BIT
BETTER MIXING OFF THE DECK...DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM UPDATE...
THURSDAY...WE STILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF THE CUT OFF
LOW ACROSS THE MARITIMES SO MUCH LIKE TODAY...SHOWERS AND RUMBLES
OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY ON. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS
ABOUT 1000 FEET HIGHER TOMORROW (6500 FEET VS. 7500 FEET)...BUT
STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
CELLS. AGAIN NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE HOWEVER BUT DEF. WORTH
A MENTION.
FRIDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DRIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT WE WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT A DRY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM I-81 WEST. WITH THAT SAID WE ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE LOW AND THE MODELS STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS EAST...TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST.
SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON PRECIP
FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. ALL THREE
MODELS (EURO/NAM/GFS) SHOW A WAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WITH SCT. SHOWERS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING THE
SLOWEST MODEL BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS NY
STATE. ACROSS PA SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIP
GETS. FOR NOW WILL COVER THIS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD FEATURES A BLDG RDG FROM THE MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE OLD
CLSD LOW AS IT DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE RDGG...STILL SOME
PSBLTY OF AFTN CONV...ESP EARLY IN THE PD AS WEAK WVS SLIDE DOWN
THE ERN SIDE OF THE RDG...AND AGAIN ON TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE AS
A STRONG WV COMES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND KICKS THE RDG TO THE
EAST. IT WILL BE WARM...AS H8 TEMPS APRCH 16C TO 18C WITH SUMMER
TIME HUMIDITY.
GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID FOR THE PD. RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BASED GUID AND THE ECMWF MAKES THIS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE XTNDD
FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVNG. ANOTHER
S/WV IS UPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO BUT CONVECTION NOT XPCTD WITH THIS
FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE MID DECK ASSCD WITH IT COMPLICATES THE FOG
FCST FOR TNGT. ATTM...WE`LL PLAY THE IDEA OF THE BKN MID DECK
SCATTERING OUT LATER TNGT WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO MOIST LOW
LVL`S AND LGT WINDS...BEST CVRG ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. ON
THURSDAY...PATCHY MVFR/IFR WILL ERODE WITH VFR BY MID TO LATE
MRNG. LIKE TDA...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DVLP ONCE AGAIN THU AFTN SO
INCLUDED PROB30`S FOR TMRW AFTN FOR -SHRA ALL LOCATIONS XCPT
RME/SYR...WHERE LAKE SHADOW MAY COME INTO PLAY. WINDS TNGT
L&V...GNRLY W TO NW ARND 10 KTS ON THU.
OUTLOOK...
THU AFTN/FRI..MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FROM FOG ESPECIALLY VALLEY TERMINALS.
SAT - MON...MAINLY VFR BUT MVFR POSSIBLE SAT IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1053 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...
FORGOT TO MENTION...WATCHING SOME CELLULAR MID LEVEL CU INCREASING
IN BELTRAMI COUNTY. HRRR MODEL WANTS TO DEVELOP SHRA-TSRA JUST
EAST OF US IN KOOCH COUNTY MN AND DROP SOUTH TODAY.... WILL WATCH
FOR ANY LOW POP IN FAR EAST THIS AFTN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MEAN 500 MB RIDGE OVER CNTRL ND. HOWEVER...ALSO
PRESENT IN CENTRAL PART OF THE RIDGE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WHICH IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. AREA IS ON EDGE OF
INSTABILITY GRADIENT AN IN AREA OF 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION.
FLOW AT 500-700 MB IS QUITE WEAK WHERE ACTIVITY IS IN CENTER OF
RIDGE SO DONT THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOO MUCH AND OVERALL
TREND SHOULD BE SOME DISSIPATION BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
IN SOME FORM THE REST OF THE DAY. EASTERN EDGE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS
FROM HARVEY TO JAMESTOWN TO OAKES WILL CONTINUE A WHILE BEFORE
LIKELY DISSIPATING SOME AS WELL. OVERALL FLOW WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIP JUST WEST OF THE FCST AREA. DESPITE SOME HIGH CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER RIDGE SFC TEMPS RISING PRETTY FAST...A BIT FASTER
THAN YESTERDAY SO BUMPED UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN MANY
AREAS...WARMEST IN THE VALLEY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS TODAY...WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH THE RIDGE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A VERY WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ND. THINK THAT THE PRECIP
WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AT THIS POINT AS MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL STAY IN THAT AREA. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP LOWS STAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE COMING OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE NAM AND GFS MUCH FASTER IN BRINGING THE SFC
TROUGH TOWARDS THE CWA AND BREAKING OUT PRECIP. THE ECMWF AND GEM
ARE SLOWER WITH THE SFC FEATURES...BUT SHOW A BIT OF PRECIP
BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND
NOT MUCH CAP...THINK THAT SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
AGAIN BE VERY WARM AND IN THE 80S.
THE WEAK SFC TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AGAIN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE FEATURE. GOING FORECAST HAD 30-40 POPS MAINLY WEST OF
THE RED RIVER...AND THIS CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
POSITION OF THE SFC TROUGH.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY THURSDAY...AND HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE COME DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENTER THE CWA OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAKENING
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AGAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND HOW
FAST THEY BREAK OUT QPF OVER THE CWA. ALL BUT THE NAM AGREE THAT
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY STORMY...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL 500MB PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SHORT WAVE FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOME ON FRI
BRINGING INCREASED POPS. BAROCLINIC ZONE STAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR SAT AND SUN WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
NORTH. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FROPA SUNDAY PM...SETTING UP A ROUND OF TSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW POPS CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH 500MB UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND COLD CORE MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE INSTABILITY
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN. TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO
THE 8 TO 11 KT RANGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
RIDDLE/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
107 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME STRONG OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH AT
WILLISTON AND DICKINSON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE 06 UTC TAF ISSUANCE...ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER AT KDIK AND
KISN. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT...PROVIDING A POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE WEST AFTER 08 UTC. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE AS YOU MOVE
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT AN EARLY MORNING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK AND MINOT.
WILL HOLD OFF THOUGH ON INCLUDING THIS IN THE 06 UTC TAF.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT
/8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME STRONG OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH AT
WILLISTON AND DICKINSON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE 06 UTC TAF ISSUANCE...ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER AT KDIK AND
KISN. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT...PROVIDING A POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE WEST AFTER 08 UTC. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE AS YOU MOVE
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT AN EARLY MORNING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK AND MINOT.
WILL HOLD OFF THOUGH ON INCLUDING THIS IN THE 06 UTC TAF.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
743 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST
AND WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE AWAY BY SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF BRUSHES THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE UPDATE INCREASED POPS FOR THE AM OVER NORTHWEST OHIO A
LITTLE AND CHANGED WORDING TO SCATTERED OR ISOLATED. STILL WENT
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AM AND SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
A NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 11C WILL START THE MORNING.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE EARLY MORNING COULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
SOME AREAS AND THEN AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE MODIFIES AND WITH
THE JUNE SUN...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OR PARTLY SUNNY.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE ARE STRUGGLING TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY REACH THE SHORELINE. MOST OF THE
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE HRRR MODEL...RUC...WRF AND THE NAM MODEL
TRIES TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO BY
AROUND DAYBREAK. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT THIS. BASED ON THE RADAR
AT 330 AM WILL HAVE SOME 30 POPS FOR THE EARLY MORNING OVER TOL
AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AND THEN THE MODELS HAVE QPF FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS. BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AROUND...WENT WITH 20 POPS. NO THUNDER AS THE AIRMASS
IS TOO STABLE.
THE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE THE SAME AS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BECAUSE OF THE
NORTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST IS STILL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY EVEN THOUGH MANY OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
QPF AT TIMES. LOW CHANCE POPS CAN BE ADDED AS NECESSARY LATER. BY
FRIDAY A RIDGE ALOFT IS BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE REGION SO DRY LOOKS GOOD.
USED HPC AND MEX FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
STILL SOME HINTS THAT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TOP THE RIDGE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY-ISH AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE 20 PERCENT SHRA/TS CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS...WITH SOME BREAKS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES GO VFR. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW
SHOWERS ASSISTED BY A TROUGH AND THE LAKE FROM CLE TO MFD TO FDY
AND TOL. BEST CHANCES OF A SHOWER WILL BE MFD AND FDY. SHOULD SEE
SKIES SCATTER THIS EVENING. MVFR MAY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT LESS LIKELY OR AT LEAST NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS IT
WILL BE DRIER.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE ISLANDS AND ALSO A MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK FROM CLEVELAND TO CATAWBA. WAVES SHOULD STAY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA AS WINDS REALLY SHOULD NOT EXCEED 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WINDS
RELAX TONIGHT AND WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW EAST OF THE REGION SO
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NNW WED/THU. WINDS WILL START
TO BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
554 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST
AND WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE AWAY BY SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF BRUSHES THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE UPDATE INCREASED POPS FOR THE AM OVER NORTHWEST OHIO A
LITTLE AND CHANGED WORDING TO SCATTERED OR ISOLATED. STILL WENT
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AM AND SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
A NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 11C WILL START THE MORNING.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE EARLY MORNING COULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
SOME AREAS AND THEN AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE MODIFIES AND WITH
THE JUNE SUN...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OR PARTLY SUNNY.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE ARE STRUGGLING TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY REACH THE SHORELINE. MOST OF THE
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE HRRR MODEL...RUC...WRF AND THE NAM MODEL
TRIES TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO BY
AROUND DAYBREAK. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT THIS. BASED ON THE RADAR
AT 330 AM WILL HAVE SOME 30 POPS FOR THE EARLY MORNING OVER TOL
AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AND THEN THE MODELS HAVE QPF FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS. BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AROUND...WENT WITH 20 POPS. NO THUNDER AS THE AIRMASS
IS TOO STABLE.
THE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE THE SAME AS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BECAUSE OF THE
NORTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST IS STILL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY EVEN THOUGH MANY OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
QPF AT TIMES. LOW CHANCE POPS CAN BE ADDED AS NECESSARY LATER. BY
FRIDAY A RIDGE ALOFT IS BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE REGION SO DRY LOOKS GOOD.
USED HPC AND MEX FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
STILL SOME HINTS THAT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TOP THE RIDGE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY-ISH AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE 20 PERCENT SHRA/TS CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND AN UPPER LOW EAST
OF THE REGION WILL TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
EXPECTING OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT FOR NE OH/NW PA...THEN A FEW HOURS OF MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN CU DEVELOP. SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE HAVE
BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME...BUT MODELS HINT AT A SEVERAL HOURS
THIS MORNING WHERE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...FOCUSED
BETWEEN TOL AND CLE AND DOWN TO FDY...LIKELY DODGING ANY TAF SITE.
THEREFORE HAVE DRY TAFS. CU WILL LIFT TO VFR BY AFTERNOON AND THEN
SCATTER THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE ISLANDS AND ALSO A MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK FROM CLEVELAND TO CATAWBA. WAVES SHOULD STAY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA AS WINDS REALLY SHOULD NOT EXCEED 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WINDS
RELAX TONIGHT AND WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW EAST OF THE REGION SO
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NNW WED/THU. WINDS WILL START
TO BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
332 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST
AND WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE AWAY BY SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF BRUSHES THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 11C WILL START THE MORNING.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE EARLY MORNING COULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
SOME AREAS AND THEN AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE MODIFIES AND WITH
THE JUNE SUN...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OR PARTLY SUNNY.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE ARE STRUGGLING TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY REACH THE SHORELINE. MOST OF THE
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE HRRR MODEL...RUC...WRF AND THE NAM MODEL
TRIES TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO BY
AROUND DAYBREAK. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT THIS. BASED ON THE RADAR
AT 330 AM WILL HAVE SOME 30 POPS FOR THE EARLY MORNING OVER TOL
AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AND THEN THE MODELS HAVE QPF FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS. BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AROUND...WENT WITH 20 POPS. NO THUNDER AS THE AIRMASS
IS TOO STABLE.
THE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE THE SAME AS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BECAUSE OF THE
NORTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST IS STILL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY EVEN THOUGH MANY OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
QPF AT TIMES. LOW CHANCE POPS CAN BE ADDED AS NECESSARY LATER. BY
FRIDAY A RIDGE ALOFT IS BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE REGION SO DRY LOOKS GOOD.
USED HPC AND MEX FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
STILL SOME HINTS THAT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TOP THE RIDGE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY-ISH AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE 20 PERCENT SHRA/TS CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND AN UPPER LOW EAST
OF THE REGION WILL TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
EXPECTING OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT FOR NE OH/NW PA...THEN A FEW HOURS OF MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN CU DEVELOP. SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE HAVE
BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME...BUT MODELS HINT AT A SEVERAL HOURS
THIS MORNING WHERE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...FOCUSED
BETWEEN TOL AND CLE AND DOWN TO FDY...LIKELY DODGING ANY TAF SITE.
THEREFORE HAVE DRY TAFS. CU WILL LIFT TO VFR BY AFTERNOON AND THEN
SCATTER THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE ISLANDS AND ALSO A MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK FROM CLEVELAND TO CATAWBA. WAVES SHOULD STAY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA AS WINDS REALLY SHOULD NOT EXCEED 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WINDS
RELAX TONIGHT AND WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW EAST OF THE REGION SO
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NNW WED/THU. WINDS WILL START
TO BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
125 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY
FLOW AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
AS IT PICKS UP LAKE MOISTURE...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS TRYING TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALSO SHOWERS ON THE
LAKE HAVING A TOUGH TIME AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. THE HRRR MODEL TRIES
TO BRING IN A NICE ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK.
AT THIS TIME SKEPTICAL ABOUT THAT...BUT WILL MONITOR IT. MADE JUST
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE N FLOW THAT DEVELOPS WILL PULL IN SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND
INCREASE CLOUDS AGAIN ON TUE DESPITE MODEL INDICATIONS OF CLEARING
SKIES. THE LAKE WATER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS ABOUT
10C...NOT SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BUT ENOUGH FOR
CLOUDS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION...WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH MAINLY LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH. BY WED THE
SAME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT THE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE NE
AT THE SURFACE. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT LIMITING THE
EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LVL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE AND BRING THE BEST INSTABILITY WELL TO OUR E.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE INDICATING A PIECE OF
JET ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ENERGY WILL
MOVE. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
GRIDS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT WILL BE WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS BY
SUNDAY MAY BE WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND AN UPPER LOW EAST
OF THE REGION WILL TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
EXPECTING OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT FOR NE OH/NW PA...THEN A FEW HOURS OF MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN CU DEVELOP. SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE HAVE
BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME...BUT MODELS HINT AT A SEVERAL HOURS
THIS MORNING WHERE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...FOCUSED
BETWEEN TOL AND CLE AND DOWN TO FDY...LIKELY DODGING ANY TAF SITE.
THEREFORE HAVE DRY TAFS. CU WILL LIFT TO VFR BY AFTERNOON AND THEN
SCATTER THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE LAKE WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 10-15KT...WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IF NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS
BEHIND THE TROUGH LATER TONIGHT A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK PROVIDING QUIET
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1229 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY
FLOW AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
AS IT PICKS UP LAKE MOISTURE...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS TRYING TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALSO SHOWERS ON THE
LAKE HAVING A TOUGH TIME AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. THE HRRR MODEL TRIES
TO BRING IN A NICE ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK.
AT THIS TIME SKEPTICAL ABOUT THAT...BUT WILL MONITOR IT. MADE JUST
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE N FLOW THAT DEVELOPS WILL PULL IN SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND
INCREASE CLOUDS AGAIN ON TUE DESPITE MODEL INDICATIONS OF CLEARING
SKIES. THE LAKE WATER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS ABOUT
10C...NOT SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BUT ENOUGH FOR
CLOUDS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION...WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH MAINLY LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH. BY WED THE
SAME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT THE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE NE
AT THE SURFACE. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT LIMITING THE
EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LVL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE AND BRING THE BEST INSTABILITY WELL TO OUR E.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE INDICATING A PIECE OF
JET ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ENERGY WILL
MOVE. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
GRIDS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT WILL BE WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS BY
SUNDAY MAY BE WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL TROUGHS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE UPPER TROUGH HOLDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. TIMING A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE TRICKY...
AND CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY COME DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE ERIE (KCLE AND
KERI) ARE MOST VULNERABLE AS WELL AS INLAND NE OH/NW PA... AND I
THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR CEILINGS FOR A WHILE
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE CUMULUS FORMS WITH
THE INITIAL DAYTIME HEATING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TUESDAY EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE LAKE WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 10-15KT...WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IF NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS
BEHIND THE TROUGH LATER TONIGHT A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK PROVIDING QUIET
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
447 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE REMAINED ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS
BEEN NEARLY NON-EXISTENT OTHER THAN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER DUE TO WEAK LAPSE
RATES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND OVERALL WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS.
SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AREA THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.
.TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT BISECTING THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE INDICIES YIELD SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000
J/KG...LIS/ BETWEEN -4 TO -7...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KTS. HOWEVER...OVERALL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW 6 C/KM. DEFINITELY NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY.
MEANWHILE...REGIONAL METAR/AWOS OBSERVATION TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASING TREND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MID SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE AS OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AT BEST. THUS...I HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
00Z WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN RAIN FREE WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN
OPEN WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.
WILL CARRY LOW END /20-30/ POPS FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
RAISING POPS UPWARD ACCORDINGLY IF THIS MODEL SOLUTION CONTINUES
TO SHOW UP IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MCS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN KY HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE LAST
HOUR. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND THE OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR HAVE
DECIDED TO PULL THE VCTS AT KMEM AND KTUP AND JUST KEEP IT AT
KMKL. A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS COULD PROMOTE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT FAVORED SITES OVERNIGHT. KMKL ALREADY REPORTING 5SM
AND THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ALSO SMALL AT KTUP. DECIDED TO ADD
SOME FOG AT KMKL AND KTUP WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBYS. AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NE AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS TUESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCU WILL
PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN VFR CONDS
EXPECTED BY ABOUT 05/16-05/18Z.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 87 70 85 65 / 60 40 20 10
MKL 85 64 82 57 / 50 60 20 10
JBR 86 67 84 62 / 50 30 10 10
TUP 85 68 86 61 / 60 50 40 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
UPDATE...
NEW WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GETTING READY TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
AT MID-AFTERNOON TIGHT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MCV LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL AR. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHWEST FROM
IL/IN. SHOWERS WERE LOCATED BEHIND THAT FRONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL MO.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
SHORT TERM...
THE TWO FEATURES MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS ARE OUR FOCUS FOR
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE MCV MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
MO/KY IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT IS EXPECTED FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTH. THE BEST TARGETED AREA FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL SOUTHEAST
THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...WEST TN INTO A PORTION OF
NORTHEAST MS.
ON TUESDAY NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL WILL END OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING TO THE
SOUTH PORTION BY EVENING.
LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MID-SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
PATTERN. FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MODELS
HAVE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TX MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF
REGION. THIS RESULTS IN A GULF MOISTURE FLOW INTO OUR AREA BY DAY 7
THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MCS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN KY HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE LAST
HOUR. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND THE OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR HAVE
DECIDED TO PULL THE VCTS AT KMEM AND KTUP AND JUST KEEP IT AT
KMKL. A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS COULD PROMOTE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT FAVORED SITES OVERNIGHT. KMKL ALREADY REPORTING 5SM
AND THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ALSO SMALL AT KTUP. DECIDED TO ADD
SOME FOG AT KMKL AND KTUP WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBYS. AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NE AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS TUESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCU WILL
PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN VFR CONDS
EXPECTED BY ABOUT 05/16-05/18Z.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 70 85 65 85 / 40 20 10 10
MKL 64 82 57 82 / 60 20 10 10
JBR 67 84 62 84 / 30 10 10 10
TUP 68 86 61 86 / 50 40 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1017 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CONVECTION THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AS EVIDENT BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
DECREASE IN TOTAL LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THE MOMENTUM OF THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY SURVIVE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...BUT A ROGUE WIND GUST UP TO 50 MPH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 4
AM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A CLAUDE TO CANADIAN LINE. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES.
REGARDING THE PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
GOOD BET TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ADRIAN TO
BEAVER LINE AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY 3-8 DEGREES IN
THESE AREAS. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG ISSUES.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
AVIATION...
HEALTHY SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF KAMA HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW-ENHANCED SURFACE TROF. OUTFLOW FROM THESE
STORMS EXPECTED TO CAUSE EASTERLY SURFACE WIND AT KAMA. WILL MONITOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVLEPMENT CLOSELY...AND BE READY TO AMEND IF
THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN TO IMPACT KAMA TERMINAL DIRECTLY.
OTHERWISE...MOIST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND 06Z THURSDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AROUND 16Z
THURSDAY WHEN CEILINGS LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...CLOUD BASES EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO VFR
RANGE AT KDHT AND KGUY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE AT
KAMA AS SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...AND RETURNING CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST. COMPACT MID/UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CIRCULATION. TO THE WEST...OTHER THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CO. HAVE SEEN ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AND ALSO ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. MID/UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OK TONIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA
THIS EVENING. STEERING FLOW IS STILL WEAK...SO SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT. HUNG ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING GIVEN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK
CAPPING IN PLACE ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY LOWER THAN IN THE
EAST AND NORTHWEST GIVEN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING ASIDE
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST LAPS AND RAP ANALYSIS DATA SHOW MLCAPES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 1000-2500 J/KG RANGE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHWEST. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/20-30 KTS/ IS ALSO IN THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE
STRONGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF COMPACT UPPER LOW. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IF STORMS MAKE
IT IN...WHILE WEAKER SHEAR WILL KEEP STORMS MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY
ACROSS THE EAST BUT THEY COULD BE STRONG OR BRIEFLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS OVER AN INCH WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. LATE
TONIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A 20-30 KT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
LLJ. ALSO MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DUE TO MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT VSBYS FROM
FALLING REAL LOW.
THE COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS INITIATE IN SOUTHERN CO/NORTHEAST
NM DURING THE AFTERNOON EITHER ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IF THEY DO...CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
UPPER LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING
TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR ONE MORE DAY
THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE REMAINING OVER EASTERN NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...BELIEVE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO
ANY CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO REBOUND...WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...INDUCING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN
RESPONSE...WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
OFF THIS WEEKEND...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SILENT POPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE EXPANDING AREA WIDE BY
TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND MID
/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACTIVITY.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE 30 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES AND SUNDAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EAST BEHIND
THE DRYLINE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
DURING THIS TIME...SO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE FUELS ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...RECENT
RAINFALL AND EFFECT ON FUELS SHOULD MITIGATE THESE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT.
KB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
JC/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
643 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.AVIATION...
HEALTHY SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF KAMA HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW-ENHANCED SURFACE TROF. OUTFLOW FROM THESE
STORMS EXPECTED TO CAUSE EASTERLY SURFACE WIND AT KAMA. WILL MONITOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVLEPMENT CLOSELY...AND BE READY TO AMEND IF
THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN TO IMPACT KAMA TERMINAL DIRECTLY.
OTHERWISE...MOIST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND 06Z THURSDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AROUND 16Z
THURSDAY WHEN CEILINGS LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...CLOUD BASES EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO VFR
RANGE AT KDHT AND KGUY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE AT
KAMA AS SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...AND RETURNING CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST. COMPACT MID/UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CIRCULATION. TO THE WEST...OTHER THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CO. HAVE SEEN ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AND ALSO ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. MID/UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OK TONIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA
THIS EVENING. STEERING FLOW IS STILL WEAK...SO SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT. HUNG ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING GIVEN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK
CAPPING IN PLACE ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY LOWER THAN IN THE
EAST AND NORTHWEST GIVEN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING ASIDE
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST LAPS AND RAP ANALYSIS DATA SHOW MLCAPES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 1000-2500 J/KG RANGE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHWEST. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/20-30 KTS/ IS ALSO IN THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE
STRONGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF COMPACT UPPER LOW. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IF STORMS MAKE
IT IN...WHILE WEAKER SHEAR WILL KEEP STORMS MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY
ACROSS THE EAST BUT THEY COULD BE STRONG OR BRIEFLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS OVER AN INCH WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. LATE
TONIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A 20-30 KT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
LLJ. ALSO MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DUE TO MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT VSBYS FROM
FALLING REAL LOW.
THE COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS INITIATE IN SOUTHERN CO/NORTHEAST
NM DURING THE AFTERNOON EITHER ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IF THEY DO...CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
UPPER LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING
TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR ONE MORE DAY
THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE REMAINING OVER EASTERN NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...BELIEVE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO
ANY CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO REBOUND...WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...INDUCING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN
RESPONSE...WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
OFF THIS WEEKEND...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SILENT POPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE EXPANDING AREA WIDE BY
TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND MID
/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACTIVITY.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE 30 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES AND SUNDAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EAST BEHIND
THE DRYLINE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
DURING THIS TIME...SO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE FUELS ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...RECENT
RAINFALL AND EFFECT ON FUELS SHOULD MITIGATE THESE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT.
KB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 63 80 62 86 63 / 30 20 10 10 10
BEAVER OK 64 83 63 89 66 / 20 10 10 10 10
BOISE CITY OK 61 82 60 88 60 / 30 20 20 10 10
BORGER TX 64 81 65 88 68 / 30 20 10 10 10
BOYS RANCH TX 64 85 66 90 65 / 20 20 10 10 10
CANYON TX 63 80 63 86 62 / 30 20 10 10 10
CLARENDON TX 64 79 63 84 64 / 30 30 10 10 10
DALHART TX 59 82 62 90 60 / 20 20 20 10 10
GUYMON OK 63 83 63 89 66 / 20 10 20 10 10
HEREFORD TX 61 81 64 87 62 / 20 20 10 10 10
LIPSCOMB TX 66 81 63 85 68 / 40 20 10 10 10
PAMPA TX 62 79 61 85 64 / 30 20 10 10 10
SHAMROCK TX 65 80 63 84 66 / 40 30 10 10 10
WELLINGTON TX 66 81 65 87 65 / 40 30 10 10 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
731 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO A LOW
IN ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THETA-E RIDGE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT
WERE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE INTO NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS JUST GRAZING THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
WATAUGA AND WILKES COUNTIES. THE BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED SOUTH
THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING WAS JUST
EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BEFORE
8AM/12Z.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROF WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
EAST TODAY. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS. CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND THE
NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW AND CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. RUC AND LOCAL
WRF BOTH SHOWED SHOWERS DEVELOP FIRST IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AFTER 15Z THEN BECOMING SCATTERED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE ALIGNED BEST PROBABILITY AND TIMING
OF THE SHOWERS TODAY WITH THESE FORECAST TRENDS.
TONIGHT EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BELOW ABOUT 6000
FEET. BUFKIT SHOWED AIR MASS MOISTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 00Z/8PM
AND BY 06Z/2AM EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED.
HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF RAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ADJACENT EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
TOOK A SPLIT OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV GUIDANCE TONIGHT SINCE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...
TOUGHER FORECAST THAN USUAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JUNE. COMBINATION
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA...SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR
A COOL AND WET DAY ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH. A VORT MAX MOVING TO THE KY/TN LINE COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD PRODUCE CONSISTENT ENOUGH
LIFT FOR LIKELY POPS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. LESS POPS IN THE LYH/DAN
CORRIDOR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM DESPITE THE DENSE OVERCAST
THANKS TO STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE. LATE DAY WINDS DO BECOME S AND EVEN
WSW ACROSS NW NC...WHICH MAY BE AN INDICATION THAT THE INSITU WEDGE
STARTS TO ERODE FROM NW NC TO ABOUT HLX/PSK DURING THE DAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH LESS OVERCAST COULD ALLOW SOME STORMS TO BUBBLE UP
LWB/BLF/MKJ/TNB DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE
CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR...BUT MOSTLY WENT WITH THE MET ALTHOUGH
CHOSE NOT TO GO AS COLD AS GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS SUGGEST. CONSIDERING THE
TIMING OF THE SHRTWV FROM THE TN RIVER VALLEY...MIGHT BE POSSIBLE
THAT TEMPS IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH MIGHT NOT
RISE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT CHILLY ALTHOUGH
IT IS A POSSIBILITY. LOOKS LIKE A DAY WHERE LWB AND BCB MAY BE
WARMER THAN ROA. ALTHOUGH WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTH WED
NIGHT...WILL KEEP A WEAK WEDGE WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE FOR THE
ENTIRE NIGHT. RAIN MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WITH SURFACE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA AND A WEAK HIGH NOSING
IN FROM THE NW...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
CLEARING ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL PUSH AREA OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE FURTHER EAST ON THURSDAY SUCH THAT HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR
STORM CWA WIDE WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE STILL AROUND. THURSDAY`S
HIGHS SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE 70S. WAA INITIALLY IN THE WEST ADDS
ANOTHER 5F TO MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY...WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALTHOUGH WEAK WITH DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW SOME MIN TEMPS
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AT THE COLDEST SPOTS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM EDT MONDAY...
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST.
POPS WERE REDUCED A LITTLE MORE ON FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. DRY WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND HPC GUIDANCE IS OVERALL QUITE REASONABLE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...SO THIS FORECAST WILL REFLECT A SIMPLE BLEND FROM
THESE SOLUTIONS WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR TOPOGRAPHICAL REASONS.
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...AND A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. AS
HEIGHTS BUILD LATER IN THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY
CLIMB HIGHER. MORE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FROM A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WERE PLACED ON THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHALLOW FOG FORMED OVERNIGHT IN THE WESTERN RIVER VALLEYS. ALL OF
THE FOG WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KBLF/KLWB/KBCB WILL BE VFR BY 14Z.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE MAINTAINED
VCSH IN THE KBCB/KBLF/KLWB/KLYH AND KROA TAFS.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. BUFKIT SHOWED A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE TAF AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH
12Z.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ROA/LYH/DAN AND BCB.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND RETURN TO VFR INTO
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
437 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO A LOW
IN ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THETA-E RIDGE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT
WERE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE INTO NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS JUST GRAZING THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
WATAUGA AND WILKES COUNTIES. THE BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED SOUTH
THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING WAS JUST
EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BEFORE
8AM/12Z.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROF WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
EAST TODAY. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS. CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND THE
NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW AND CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. RUC AND LOCAL
WRF BOTH SHOWED SHOWERS DEVELOP FIRST IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AFTER 15Z THEN BECOMING SCATTERED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE ALIGNED BEST PROBABILITY AND TIMING
OF THE SHOWERS TODAY WITH THESE FORECAST TRENDS.
TONIGHT EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BELOW ABOUT 6000
FEET. BUFKIT SHOWED AIR MASS MOISTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 00Z/8PM
AND BY 06Z/2AM EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED.
HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF RAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ADJACENT EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
TOOK A SPLIT OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV GUIDANCE TONIGHT SINCE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...
TOUGHER FORECAST THAN USUAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JUNE. COMBINATION
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA...SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR
A COOL AND WET DAY ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH. A VORT MAX MOVING TO THE KY/TN LINE COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD PRODUCE CONSISTENT ENOUGH
LIFT FOR LIKELY POPS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. LESS POPS IN THE LYH/DAN
CORRIDOR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM DESPITE THE DENSE OVERCAST
THANKS TO STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE. LATE DAY WINDS DO BECOME S AND EVEN
WSW ACROSS NW NC...WHICH MAY BE AN INDICATION THAT THE INSITU WEDGE
STARTS TO ERODE FROM NW NC TO ABOUT HLX/PSK DURING THE DAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH LESS OVERCAST COULD ALLOW SOME STORMS TO BUBBLE UP
LWB/BLF/MKJ/TNB DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE
CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR...BUT MOSTLY WENT WITH THE MET ALTHOUGH
CHOSE NOT TO GO AS COLD AS GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS SUGGEST. CONSIDERING THE
TIMING OF THE SHRTWV FROM THE TN RIVER VALLEY...MIGHT BE POSSIBLE
THAT TEMPS IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH MIGHT NOT
RISE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT CHILLY ALTHOUGH
IT IS A POSSIBILITY. LOOKS LIKE A DAY WHERE LWB AND BCB MAY BE
WARMER THAN ROA. ALTHOUGH WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTH WED
NIGHT...WILL KEEP A WEAK WEDGE WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE FOR THE
ENTIRE NIGHT. RAIN MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WITH SURFACE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA AND A WEAK HIGH NOSING
IN FROM THE NW...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
CLEARING ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL PUSH AREA OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE FURTHER EAST ON THURSDAY SUCH THAT HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR
STORM CWA WIDE WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE STILL AROUND. THURSDAY`S
HIGHS SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE 70S. WAA INITIALLY IN THE WEST ADDS
ANOTHER 5F TO MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY...WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALTHOUGH WEAK WITH DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW SOME MIN TEMPS
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AT THE COLDEST SPOTS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM EDT MONDAY...
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST.
POPS WERE REDUCED A LITTLE MORE ON FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. DRY WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND HPC GUIDANCE IS OVERALL QUITE REASONABLE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...SO THIS FORECAST WILL REFLECT A SIMPLE BLEND FROM
THESE SOLUTIONS WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR TOPOGRAPHICAL REASONS.
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...AND A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. AS
HEIGHTS BUILD LATER IN THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY
CLIMB HIGHER. MORE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FROM A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WERE PLACED ON THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND
HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES INCLUDING KDAN. HAVE MVFR FOG IN THE
KBCB AND KBLF SINCE THEY HAD RAIN EARLIER MONDAY EVENING AND HAVE
NOW CLEARED OUT. WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR AT KDAN. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AND WIND WILL HOLD IN OVERNIGHT
TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. OBSERVATIONS AT KLWB ALREADY INDICATING
IFR FOG HAS FORMED IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY SO HAVE LIFR FOG IN AT
THE AIRPORT THROUGH 8AM. ALL OF THE FOG WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE MAINTAINED
VCSH IN THE KBCB/KBLF/KLWB/KLYH AND KROA TAFS.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. BUFKIT SHOWED A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY IFR
CEILINGS OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL AFTER 06Z.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY AT ROA/LYH/DAN AND BCB.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND RETURN TO VFR INTO
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
204 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA DEVELOPED THIS EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED
TO PERSIST. EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS OVERDOING CURRENT COVERAGE BUT
STILL SUGGESTS THIS COULD LAST PAST 06Z. WITH THE SFC FRONT
SINKING INTO FLORIDA...TOOK POPS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
CWA FOR THIS EVENING BUT BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS EARLY IN
THE MORNING AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP
COULD DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD.
JUST TWEAKED TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH OVERNIGHT MINS TO SEE IF FORECAST MINS NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD ACROSS EASTERN GA.
11
PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 256 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DRY AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY
HAVE REMAINED SOUTH OF THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE
FRONT...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY COULD
ALLOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THURSDAY WILL
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE DRY AIR MASS WILL DROP DEW POINTS
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
MOISTURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GA ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY
COULD FUEL ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...AS ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. THESE TEMPS ARE A FAR CRY
FROM THIS TIME LAST YEAR WHEN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BAKED UNDER
90+ HIGHS. HAD TO TWEAK DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS AND FORECAST CONDITIONS. A FEW MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING
THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE VERY DRY DEWPOINTS...AND HAVE HAD TO
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS AS A RESULT.
31
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 256 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
LATEST GFS LOOKS A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN ECMWF WITH GULF
MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT
CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM REASONABLE AND DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE ATTM
IN LOWERING THE CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST GFS SO HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES. ONE ITEM TO MONITOR WILL BE A POSSIBLE HYBRID CAD EVENT
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEDGE
POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS SOLUTION INCLUDES THIS FEATURE... HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES
NOT. IF GUIDANCE ENDS UP COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
THEN IT MAY SERVE TO FOCUS ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE. BEING SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY... HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS AS IS.
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS OF FORECAST APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
03
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 317 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PORTION WITH
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING ITS SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH...POSITIONED
OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA BY FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOKS TO BE JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
WITH DRY MID LEVELS AND A LACK OF OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING...FEEL
WE CAN KEEP A POP FREE FORECAST FOR NOW. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A
TRANSITION DAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO GIVE WAY OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND RETURN FLOW OCCURS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SEE SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL FOCUS POPS ON THE WESTERN
TIER OF THE AREA WHERE BUT CAP AT LOW END CHANCE FOR NOW.
MODELS NOW COMING INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND PROVIDING
FOR A DIFFLUENT PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS SUFFICIENTLY SO THAT THE GULF WILL BE OPEN
FOR RICH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE ENTIRE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER BY THIS TIME WILL BE 1.8 TO 2 INCHES WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED CYCLE...CAPPED POPS IN THE 50S FOR NOW
BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE THESE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE RAISED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH
AND AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES
AND NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...MVFR CEILINGS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS ARE IN THE 1200-2200FT RANGE AT THE MOMENT. NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO GET MUCH LOWER BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME 900-1000FT CEILINGS BY DAY BREAK. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
E IN THE 5-10KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 60 88 62 / 10 0 0 5
ATLANTA 82 64 86 66 / 5 0 0 5
BLAIRSVILLE 78 54 81 56 / 10 5 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 82 58 86 61 / 5 5 0 10
COLUMBUS 86 66 90 68 / 5 5 0 10
GAINESVILLE 80 61 84 63 / 5 5 0 5
MACON 85 63 89 65 / 5 0 0 5
ROME 83 58 88 61 / 5 5 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 83 59 86 63 / 5 0 0 10
VIDALIA 85 67 89 68 / 10 5 0 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....49
AVIATION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT
BLOCKING UPR LO OVER NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN
THE PLAINS. SHRTWV ROTATING SWWD THRU QUEBEC IN CYC NE FLOW ALF ARND
THE CLOSED LO AND ACCOMPANYING AREA OF MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON WV IMAGE
AND SPC DIAGNOSED AREA OF KINX AOA 30 IS CAUSING SOME CLDS/A FEW
-SHRA OVER ERN LK SUP INTO ERN UPR MI INTO EARLY AFTN. ANOTHER
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS UNDER NNW FLOW IS
SINKING SSEWD THRU MN...BRINGING SOME SCT SHRA/TS TO MAINLY NE MN
UNDER STEEPER H85-5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB/AREA OF
HIER KINX NEAR 35 SHOWN ON SPC ANALYSIS/AREA OF H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH MN SHRTWV AS DIAGNOSED BY MAJORITY OF MODELS. A FEW
-SHRA ON THE ERN EDGE OF THIS AREA HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR WRN CWA
IWD. BTWN THESE TWO AREAS OF -SHRA...SFC/H85 HI PRES EXTENDING FM NW
ONTARIO THRU CNTRL LK SUP/UPR MI AND INTO NE WI AS WELL AS AXIS OF
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB /KINX 7/ IS
BRINGING MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WX.
TNGT...AFT ANY LINGERING DIURNAL -SHRA OVER THE W END EARLY THIS
EVNG...EXPECT A TRANQUIL NGT WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/
SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING SFC-H85 RDG AXIS OVER UPR MI. WITH MOCLR
SKIES/LGT WINDS/FCST PWAT 0.60-0.75 INCH ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NGT
AND DEWPTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID/UPR 30S THIS AFTN...EXPECT A
STEEP FALL OF TEMP TNGT BLO BULK OF GUIDANCE AND TOWARD READINGS AS
LO AS THE 30S OVER THE INTERIOR THAT WERE REPORTED THIS MRNG.
THU...UNDER RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC...SFC HI PRES
RDG AXIS WL BRING A DRY DAY TO THE CWA WITH SOME DIURNAL CU INLAND
FM LK BREEZES THAT FORM WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVHD.
WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT ARND 13C...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
AS 500MB LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY...STRONG OMEGA BLOCKING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LESS AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. STRONG 500MB LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING
ALBERTA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING EASTWARD TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPPER MI WILL BE LOCATED ON THE DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE DE-AMPLIFYING
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG 500MB LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP A RIDGING PATTERN
OVER UPPER MI ALOFT...WITH CORRESPONDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO
FLATTEN...SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEGIN
IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING
TO TRAVEL JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS WAA AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE TO 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS FAR AS
CONVECTION...DESPITE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE CWA...GFS MEAN
LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE /500-1000 J/KG/ AND
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE FAVORABLE OVER UPPER MI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR AND FRONTOGENESIS COULD STILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS BEING SAID...INCREASED POP VALUES TO LIKELY OVER AREAS OF BEST
FORCING...WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN MODERATE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES /30-40KTS/ AND A MORE FAVORABLE LOOKING CAPE
PROFILE WITH THIS LAST MODEL RUN...NEXT UPDATES MAY DECIDE TO GO
LIKELY TSRA AS WELL. REGARDLESS...THINK MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN. GFS BULLSEYES WELL OVER 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI...THOUGH REST OF MODELS SHOW MUCH LOWER VALUES WITH
THE MAIN PRECIP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A COMBINATION
OF THE NAM/ECMWF AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TO DERIVE QPF. BEST FORCING
AND MOISTURE WILL THEN EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST SATURDAY...WITH
SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF RAIN FAR EAST DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REGAIN CONTROL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT RESULTING LAKE BREEZES
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. AS
LAKE BREEZES CONVERGE IN THE AFTERNOON...WARM UNSTABLE AIR INTERIOR
WEST COULD RISE AND SPAWN A FEW TSRA/SHRA. EXACT SET UP AND LOCATION
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CAPE VALUES /800-1100 J/KG ML CAPE/ AND HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND.
MEANWHILE...STRONG 500MB LOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF TSRA/SHRA DURING PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. AFTER
PASSAGE...DRIER SOUTHERLY AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO UPPER
MI...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WI BORDER TO RISE TO THE UPPER
80S. TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOLER AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...500MB LOW WILL HAVE REACHED LAKE WINNIPEG...WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PROTRUDING AHEAD OF IT AND STRETCHING DOWN INTO
TEXAS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER UPPER MI WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD...SO WILL
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT...TRAVERSING
UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ ARE A GOOD
INDICATOR THAT TSRA ACTIVITY COULD VERY WELL BE PRESENT. 1000-2000
J/KG ML CAPE VALUES ALONG WITH A FAT CAPE PROFILE ALSO SUPPORT THIS
IDEA. SINCE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY INCONSISTENT ON EXACT TIMING FOR THE
PRECIP REACHING AND EXITING UPPER MI...WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME...WITH BEST FORCING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXITING EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT...BOTH EXTENDING FROM THE SAME 500MB LOW /NOW
OVER JAMES BAY/...WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THEN TRAVERSING UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL CU DURING
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING LAKE SUP THRU THU NGT...EXPECT WINDS LESS
THAN 20 KTS. ALTHOUGH A PAIR OF LO PRES SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI INTO SAT AND AGAIN ON MON...THE HI
STABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATERS WILL HOLD WIND SPEEDS
TO NO HIER THAN 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DKTS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE EAST TODAY TO NEAR THE MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY
SHOWS WHAT SHUD BE THE LAST VORT MAX COMING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. VORT IS NOW IN NE MN AND WILL SLIDE INTO NW WI THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE A FEW SHWRS AND TSTMS E
PTNS OF OUR AREA. MAY SEE ISOL AFTN CONVECTION AGAIN IN THE
EAST...BUT LACK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD MAKE AFTN CONVECTION
MORE ISOL THAN YESTERDAY. FARTHER WEST...SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE BECOME
PRETTY ACTIVE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS WC INTO SW MN WITH CONVECTION
FIRING IN THE STREAM OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMING OVER THE RIDGE.
INCREASED CONVECTION IN THAT AREA SEEMS TO BE TIED TO WEAK 850 MB
WAA WITH WINDS SHOWING SOME VEERING IN THAT AREA. NAM/GFS PLAY THIS
AS MAINLY A MORNING EVENT WITH 850 MB WINDS BACKING BY 18Z
DECREASING THE WAA. HRRR FORECAST RADAR REFLECTIVITY HAS ALSO BEEN
FOLLOWING THIS LOGIC.
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY IN THE WEST TODAY. AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS UP AROUND 2C...BUT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL TEMPER THE WARMUP. STARTING OUT VERY WARM WITH CURRENT
TEMPS AROUND 70...BUT LIMITED WARMUP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE
TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YDA.
NEXT PLAYER IS THE SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS UTAH WHICH MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING NE INTO THE DKTS THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS N MN ON FRIDAY. POPS WILL GRADE FROM THE HIGH
CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE N CWA TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WARM AND A BIT BREEZY ON FRIDAY AS TROF MOVING ACROSS N MN TURNS
WINDS SWLY. SHUD SEE SOME HIGHS NEAR 90 IN SW AREAS.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE WEST SUNDAY AFTN AND ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. VERY WARM AND BREEZY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. BOTH DAYS SHUD SEE SOME HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90
DEGREE RANGE. WITH ENUF SUN COULD REACH LOWER 90S IN THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING A
CHILLY COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
A FEW AFTN SHWRS IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE
THAT FOR LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAIN ISSUE THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE SCT SHOWERS THE REST OF THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT TURNING OF H85 WINDS FROM THE S OVER TO THE SW HAS
WORKED WITH N-S ORIENTED THETA-E GRADIENT TO GENERATE SOME MID-
LEVEL SHOWERS. EXPECT MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN
NODAK...BUT HRRR ALONG WITH NMM/ARW REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW
SHOWERS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
TWO PRIMARY BANDS OF CLOUDS ON SATELLITE ACROSS WRN AND ERN MN
LIKELY WHERE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TONIGHT...PUTTING A THREAT
FOR SOME -SHRA AT RWF/AXN/MSP IN PARTICULAR. STUCK WITH MAINLY
VCSH EVERYWHERE...WITH A TEMPO -SHRA FOR RWF...WHERE THE HRRR HAS
BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SOME ACTIVITY THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS. FOR EAU...BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
CLOUDS. SFC RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST MEANS ANOTHER NIGHT OF CALM
WINDS...AND IF CLOUDS CAN STAY OUT...FULLY EXPECT SOME 1/2SM OR
LESS TYPE FOG THERE THIS MORNING. PROBLEM IS...THEY WILL HAVE
CLOUDS IN THE AREA MOST OF THE EVENING...MEANING THERE COULD BE
QUITE THE VARIABILITY IN VSBY OVERNIGHT. WILL AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING
AS MUCH COVERAGE THU AS WAS SEEN WED AS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME SHRA...BUT NMM/ARW REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY AROUND AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY
CLEARS OUT.
KMSP...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW BOUTS OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD. KEPT A VCSH MENTION GOING
THROUGH 12Z...BUT COULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY LINGER THROUGH 15/16Z.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE RUNWAYS GET WET...VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL. HAVE BACKED OFF ON SHRA MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE FOCUSED NORTH OF HERE...NOT TO MENTION
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LOOK TO COME FRIDAY MORNING AS THE WEAKENING
FRONT MOVES IN.
.OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FRI...-SHRA/-TSRA PSBL IN THE MORNING. VFR. WINDS SW 8-12KTS.
SAT/SUN...VFR. WINDS SAT SW 10-15KTS. WINDS SUN SW 15-20KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. CHC TSRA SUN NGT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
BAP/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
111 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE...WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKING
TO TOUCH 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS. COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A AMPLIFIED RIDGE ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES..WITH A POWERFUL JET APPROACHING THE BASE OF A
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. CLOSER TO HOME...SHOWERS WITH
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST WITH A FEW ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. THESE WILL PERSIST TODAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED
THE ISOLATED WORDING FOR BOTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN TOMORROW
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND HEAD TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. ON FRIDAY...THE TAIL
END OF THIS PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AS LOW
LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE. WIND PROFILES ARE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WITH ROUGHLY 25 TO 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THEREFORE NOT RULING
OUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...AND BY SATURDAY H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. STILL EXPECTING SURFACE TEMPS
TO REACH 90F FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH 12HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 80 TO 100DM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ND/MT BORDER. THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN GIVEN THE STRONG CAP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD.
THE FORCING NECESSARY TO BREAK THROUGH THIS CAP WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THE 06.12 GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM DEPICT A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND CROSSING THE
DAKOTAS/MN BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TIME THE DYNAMICS WILL
CERTAINLY BE MORE FAVORABLE...BUT THE THERMODYNAMICS MAY BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. LOOKING AHEAD...ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAIN ISSUE THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE SCT SHOWERS THE REST OF THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT TURNING OF H85 WINDS FROM THE S OVER TO THE SW HAS
WORKED WITH N-S ORIENTED THETA-E GRADIENT TO GENERATE SOME MID-
LEVEL SHOWERS. EXPECT MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN
NODAK...BUT HRRR ALONG WITH NMM/ARW REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW
SHOWERS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
TWO PRIMARY BANDS OF CLOUDS ON SATELLITE ACROSS WRN AND ERN MN
LIKELY WHERE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TONIGHT...PUTTING A THREAT
FOR SOME -SHRA AT RWF/AXN/MSP IN PARTICULAR. STUCK WITH MAINLY
VCSH EVERYWHERE...WITH A TEMPO -SHRA FOR RWF...WHERE THE HRRR HAS
BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING SOME ACTIVITY THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS. FOR EAU...BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
CLOUDS. SFC RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST MEANS ANOTHER NIGHT OF CALM
WINDS...AND IF CLOUDS CAN STAY OUT...FULLY EXPECT SOME 1/2SM OR
LESS TYPE FOG THERE THIS MORNING. PROBLEM IS...THEY WILL HAVE
CLOUDS IN THE AREA MOST OF THE EVENING...MEANING THERE COULD BE
QUITE THE VARIABILITY IN VSBY OVERNIGHT. WILL AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING
AS MUCH COVERAGE THU AS WAS SEEN WED AS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME SHRA...BUT NMM/ARW REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY AROUND AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY
CLEARS OUT.
KMSP...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW BOUTS OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD. KEPT A VCSH MENTION GOING
THROUGH 12Z...BUT COULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY LINGER THROUGH 15/16Z.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE RUNWAYS GET WET...VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL. HAVE BACKED OFF ON SHRA MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE FOCUSED NORTH OF HERE...NOT TO MENTION
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LOOK TO COME FRIDAY MORNING AS THE WEAKENING
FRONT MOVES IN.
.OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FRI...-SHRA/-TSRA PSBL IN THE MORNING. VFR. WINDS SW 8-12KTS.
SAT/SUN...VFR. WINDS SAT SW 10-15KTS. WINDS SUN SW 15-20KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. CHC TSRA SUN NGT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JRB/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
447 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN A FEW SPOTS. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL EXIT ON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MID-SUMMER HEAT TO WESTERN NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF
CENTERED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH THIS TROF
FORECAST TO SLOWLY EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM/RAP HAVE THUS FAR OVERDONE A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE
TRENDS THROUGH 300 AM SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FINALLY
FORMING...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS
OTHER LOCATIONS WHICH REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY FOG SHOULD
BE QUITE QUICK TO BURN OFF.
OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE
FORECAST DRAWING UPON PERSISTENCE...AND WEIGHING OBSERVATIONAL DATA
FROM YESTERDAY OVER FORECAST GUIDANCE. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NAM/RGEM/GFS
ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING...THOUGH THEY LACK THE
RESOLUTION TO KEY ON THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. THE HRRR FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO HOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY...PROVIDING THE
MOST USEFUL FORECAST GUIDANCE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE OF THE LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO
BREEZES...AND ALSO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MINIMAL INSTABILITY UP TO
AROUND 500 J/KG...PERHAPS A TAD LESS YESTERDAY AS THE UPPER LEVELS
WARM. LAKE SHADOWING WILL LIKELY KEEP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES DRY
TODAY...INCLUDING MUCH OF BUFFALO METRO...THOUGH THE NORTH
TOWNS WILL RUN A RISK OF A SHOWERS SINCE THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER
TODAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TODAY.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUALLY EXIT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A FEW CLOUDS LEFT OVER THIS EVENING FROM ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...BUT THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT...AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE COOLER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE MID-50S NEAR THE LAKES AND IN THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
NATION`S MIDSECTION. WHILE THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION IN THE PATTERN
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
THERE WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF FEATURES FOR OUR AREA TO CONTEND
WITH BEFOREHAND.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL COME ON FRIDAY...WHEN A MODERATELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CORRESPONDING 110-120 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT
TO LIFT A STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL RIDGING/DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MUCH WEAKER OVERALL LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD DIE DOWN RATHER QUICKLY IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING MECHANISMS. FOLLOWING THIS...THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING...THOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES.
AFTER THAT...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIPPLE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEADING FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE WORKING INTO OUR REGION...THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIANCE IN THE TIMING
AND POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...THE FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY NAM/ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL
TEND TO FOCUS CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/GENESEE
VALLEY EASTWARD...WHILE THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
GFS WOULD LARGELY KEEP ANY CONVECTION CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES...
FOR NOW FEEL IT PRUDENT TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR
BOTH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT WITH A TIMING AND
POSITIONING TILTED A BIT CLOSER TO THE FASTER NAM/ECMWF/GEM
CONSENSUS.
TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REFLECT THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE THE AXIS OF THE CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE RESULTING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A STEADY
WARMING AND MUGGIFYING TREND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +12C TO +16C
ON SUNDAY CLIMBING TO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY. SUCH
WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON SUNDAY AND THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WITH A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS POSSIBLY CRACKING THE 90
DEGREE MARK MONDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE FOR ESPECIALLY UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POPPING UP ACROSS OUR WARMER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON... THOUGH FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DRY FORECAST WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AFTER THAT...THE LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO FEATURE A
TRANSITION BACK TO A COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE REGIME AS A PACIFIC
LOW BARRELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND INTO
CANADA...TAKING UP STATION IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PRECEDED
BY A LEADING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHILE
SOME LESSER DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THE TWO GUIDANCE PACKAGES
HAVE BOTH CONTINUED TO SLOW THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH NOW
LOOKS AS IF IT COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT FAR WESTERN SECTIONS LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY OOZING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BACKED OFF A BIT ON POPS FOR
TUESDAY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY ASSOCIATED CHANCE POPS NOW INDICATED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z...THE ONLY REAL CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. A BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY PROVIDE A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF
CLOUDS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT JHW GIVEN ITS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATION. ANY FOG WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN
OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH MID- MORNING.
FOR TODAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP...WITH LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AGAIN LIKELY TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS. SOME
STRONGER SHOWERS SHOULD BUILD INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. FEEL BUF/ART WILL
MOST LIKELY BE SHADOWED BY THE LAKES...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AT THESE LOCATIONS...WHILE ROC/ART/JHW WILL ALL HAVE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
WHILE CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR/MVFR...EXPECT
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY TO BE VFR.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
334 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN A FEW SPOTS. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL EXIT ON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MID-SUMMER HEAT TO WESTERN NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF
CENTERED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH THIS TROF
FORECAST TO SLOWLY EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM/RAP HAVE THUS FAR OVERDONE A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE
TRENDS THROUGH 300 AM SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FINALLY
FORMING...BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS
OTHER LOCATIONS WHICH REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY FOG SHOULD
BE QUITE QUICK TO BURN OFF.
OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE
FORECAST DRAWING UPON PERSISTENCE...AND WEIGHING OBSERVATIONAL DATA
FROM YESTERDAY OVER FORECAST GUIDANCE. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NAM/RGEM/GFS
ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING...THOUGH THEY LACK THE
RESOLUTION TO KEY ON THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. THE HRRR FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO HOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY...PROVIDING THE
MOST USEFUL FORECAST GUIDANCE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE OF THE LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO
BREEZES...AND ALSO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MINIMAL INSTABILITY UP TO
AROUND 500 J/KG...PERHAPS A TAD LESS YESTERDAY AS THE UPPER LEVELS
WARM. LAKE SHADOWING WILL LIKELY KEEP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES DRY
TODAY...INCLUDING MUCH OF BUFFALO METRO...THOUGH THE NORTH
TOWNS WILL RUN A RISK OF A SHOWERS SINCE THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER
TODAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TODAY.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUALLY EXIT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A FEW CLOUDS LEFT OVER THIS EVENING FROM ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...BUT THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT...AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE COOLER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE MID-50S NEAR THE LAKES AND IN THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
NATION`S MIDSECTION. WHILE THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION IN THE PATTERN
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
THERE WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF FEATURES FOR OUR AREA TO CONTEND
WITH BEFOREHAND.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL COME ON FRIDAY...WHEN A MODERATELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CORRESPONDING 110-120 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT
TO LIFT A STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL RIDGING/DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MUCH WEAKER OVERALL LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD DIE DOWN RATHER QUICKLY IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING MECHANISMS. FOLLOWING THIS...THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING...THOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES.
AFTER THAT...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIPPLE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEADING FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE WORKING INTO OUR REGION...THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIANCE IN THE TIMING
AND POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...THE FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY NAM/ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL
TEND TO FOCUS CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/GENESEE
VALLEY EASTWARD...WHILE THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
GFS WOULD LARGELY KEEP ANY CONVECTION CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES...
FOR NOW FEEL IT PRUDENT TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR
BOTH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT WITH A TIMING AND
POSITIONING TILTED A BIT CLOSER TO THE FASTER NAM/ECMWF/GEM
CONSENSUS.
TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REFLECT THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE THE AXIS OF THE CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE RESULTING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A STEADY
WARMING AND MUGGIFYING TREND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +12C TO +16C
ON SUNDAY CLIMBING TO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY. SUCH
WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON SUNDAY AND THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WITH A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS POSSIBLY CRACKING THE 90
DEGREE MARK MONDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE FOR ESPECIALLY UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POPPING UP ACROSS OUR WARMER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON... THOUGH FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DRY FORECAST WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AFTER THAT...THE LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO FEATURE A
TRANSITION BACK TO A COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE REGIME AS A PACIFIC
LOW BARRELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND INTO
CANADA...TAKING UP STATION IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PRECEDED
BY A LEADING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHILE
SOME LESSER DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THE TWO GUIDANCE PACKAGES
HAVE BOTH CONTINUED TO SLOW THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH NOW
LOOKS AS IF IT COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT FAR WESTERN SECTIONS LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY OOZING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BACKED OFF A BIT ON POPS FOR
TUESDAY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY ASSOCIATED CHANCE POPS NOW INDICATED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z...THE ONLY REAL CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A FAIRLY BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WHICH WOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING (AND FOG
POTENTIAL) IF IT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWS FAIRLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS UPSTREAM...WITH FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS WHICH
DO CLEAR REPORTING SOME FOG. BASED ON A BLEND OF CLIMATOLOGY AND
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG AT
IAG/JHW...BUT LEAVE IT OUT OF OTHER TAF LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...A
THE LONGER SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS CALM...THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER VSBY POSSIBLE
TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY FOG WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY THROUGH MID-MORNING.
FOR TODAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP...WITH LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AGAIN LIKELY TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS. SOME
STRONGER SHOWERS SHOULD BUILD INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. FEEL BUF/ART WILL
MOST LIKELY BE SHADOWED BY THE LAKES...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AT THESE LOCATIONS...WHILE ROC/ART/JHW WILL ALL HAVE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
WHILE CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR/MVFR...EXPECT
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY TO BE VFR.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
200 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES, ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING EACH DAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING US SHOWERS SATURDAY BEFORE A
STRETCH OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TWEAK DIMINISHING AXIS
OF SHOWERS AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ALSO...DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL FLOAT THEIR WAY DOWN
OVERNIGHT...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...INCLUDING PROSPECT FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS.
630 PM UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATED LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...TO DETERMINISTICALLY HONE IN ON AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO RULE OUT LOCATIONS NOT LIKELY TO SEE
ANYTHING. STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO QUITE
OBVIOUS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE LAKE AND SOUTH OF THE
THRUWAY...YET MAINLY SUNNY IN BETWEEN. HRRR MODEL DOING AN
ADMIRABLE JOB PLACING CONVECTION IN AN ENHANCED LINE ALONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE...ABOUT TO SPREAD THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS...AND
HEADING SOUTH WHILE DECREASING IN COVERAGE WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT. SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
EXPECTED. WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND EVEN A BIT OF SMALL HAIL. AT THE
OFFICE WE HAD HAIL JUST A BIT BIGGER THAN THE SIZE OF A PEA AND
MOST RECENTLY UP IN ROME 1/4" HAIL OR THE SIZE OF A PEA FROM
NUMEROUS SPOTTERS. WITH VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS...NOT SURPRISING
WE WILL SEE A BIT OF HAIL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE WITH VERY
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE (INVERTED V SOUNDINGS). I AM NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TO TURN SEVERE WITH NO SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THE STORMS FOR
ANY LENGTH OF TIME. AS THESE STORMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN EXPECT
THE ACTION TO DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT QUITE AS
WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND A BIT
BETTER MIXING OFF THE DECK...DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
THURSDAY FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TRENDS IN PLACEMENT
OF VORTICITY LOBES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THOUGH THERE IS
A GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...I PLACED
HIGHEST POPS /40-50-ISH/ ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF NY TO
CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHWARD...BASED ON THESE FACTORS...WHILE PUSHING
IT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. ALSO...I BEGAN THE INITIAL INCREASE IN
POPS A BIT EARLIER...BECAUSE OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL ALREADY BE
PRESENT IN THE MID LEVELS IN THE MORNING...WHICH SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
WILL TAKE LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING TO BE REALIZED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY...WE STILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF THE CUT OFF
LOW ACROSS THE MARITIMES SO MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY ON. THE FREEZING LEVEL
IS ABOUT 1000 FEET HIGHER TOMORROW (6500 FEET VS. 7500 FEET)...BUT
STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
CELLS. AGAIN NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE HOWEVER BUT DEF. WORTH
A MENTION.
FRIDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DRIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT WE WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT A DRY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM I-81 WEST. WITH THAT SAID WE ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE LOW AND THE MODELS STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS EAST...TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST.
SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON PRECIP
FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. ALL THREE
MODELS (EURO/NAM/GFS) SHOW A WAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WITH SCT. SHOWERS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING THE
SLOWEST MODEL BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS NY
STATE. ACROSS PA SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIP
GETS. FOR NOW WILL COVER THIS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD FEATURES A BLDG RDG FROM THE MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE OLD
CLSD LOW AS IT DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE RDGG...STILL SOME
PSBLTY OF AFTN CONV...ESP EARLY IN THE PD AS WEAK WVS SLIDE DOWN
THE ERN SIDE OF THE RDG...AND AGAIN ON TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE AS
A STRONG WV COMES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND KICKS THE RDG TO THE
EAST. IT WILL BE WARM...AS H8 TEMPS APRCH 16C TO 18C WITH SUMMER
TIME HUMIDITY.
GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID FOR THE PD. RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BASED GUID AND THE ECMWF MAKES THIS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE XTNDD
FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THU UPDATE... THE MAIN PD OF RESTRICTIVE CONDS IS EARLY THIS
MRNG (THROUGH ABT 12-13Z)...AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG BLANKET THE TWIN
TIERS...AND BRING IFR CONDS AT KELM/KITH/KBGM.
BY EARLY TO MID-AFTN...SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED TO RE-FIRE
OVER NY`S SRN TIER AND NE PA. HOWEVER...HIT AND MISS COVERAGE
PRECLUDES THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.
OTHWS...VFR EXPECTED...WITH W TO NW WINDS INCREASING TO ARND 10 KT
BY AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
THU AFTN/FRI..MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FROM FOG...ESPECIALLY VALLEY TERMINALS.
SAT - MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE SAT IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN/MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1131 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE BRUNT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
STRETCHING FROM JUST EAST OF MOHALL TO NEWBURG AND INTO RUGBY AND
BALTA. WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH ROTATE THIS AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AFTER 06Z...WEAKEN IT...THEN
STRENGTHEN IT SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY 11Z
THURSDAY NEAR WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH. UTILIZING THE LATEST
HRRR/NAM/GFS...THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ALONG OUR
WESTERN BORDER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD ALONG THE BORDER NORTH INTO WILLISTON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN
UTAH. THIS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT PIVOTS NORTHEAST NEXT
24HR. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY IS HANDLED WELL AND WILL LOOK MORE INTO IT LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK WEST INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE FOCUS OF WHICH WILL BE WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY. THROUGH 7 PM CDT THURSDAY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF AERODROMES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY
WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH 9 AM THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...IMPACTING KDIK/KBIS/KMOT/KISN AFTER 15Z/10 AM CDT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
520 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING WITH A COLD FRONT BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONUS TODAY WITH LITTLE DEVIATION IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM RECENT DAYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
LKLY FROM THE EARLY AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
THE KEY FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYC FLOW ALOFT...ROTATING SEWD ACRS THE ERN
GRT LKS AND SERN CANADA. THIS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS DISCERNIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING WV LOOP...WITH THE COLDEST 500MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C ASSOCD WITH A VORTMAX CROSSING LAKE HURON. THE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE SEWD AND
EXTEND ACRS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN. STRONG BLYR HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LKLY
BEING REACHED BY 18Z. THE HI RES NAM AND HRRR SHOW CONVECTION
INITIATING OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BTWN 18-19Z WITH INC CVRG
SPREADING SWD BY 22Z. DESPITE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MSTR...IT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
DURING PEAK HEATING...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 7 C/KM.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN THE SEE TEXT CATG OUTLOOK BASED ON
THIS LINE OF THINKING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AFT
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE ALL
TOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.
MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS BUT STILL
ABOUT 2-5F BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATE NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S OVR THE N/W MTNS TO THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL AND SERN VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE SETTLED WX TO THE REGION. STILL CAN/T RULE
OUT AN AFTN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR NE ZONES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
DIVING SE INTO NEW ENG. HOWEVER...BULK OF FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE HEADED NORTH OF PA...SO WILL ONLY MENTION A 20
PCT CHC. AM SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND CU BY
AFTN OVR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS. MDL 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPS FROM THE M70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO THE L80 ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
FRI NIGHT LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AS RIDGE SLIDES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MDL DATA HINTS THAT REMNANTS OF A DYING
MCS COULD APPROACH NW PA TOWARD DAWN...BRINGING INCR CLOUDS AND
THE CHC OF A SHRA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLUSTERING OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A BETTER THAN AVG
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD PA
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMER AND MORE
SETTLED CONDS THAN WE/VE SEEN RECENTLY. HOWEVER...STILL A CHC OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND...AS NORTHERN PA WILL
REMAIN ON PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE. BEST CHC WILL BE SAT...WHEN
MDLS SHOW FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N OF PA. RISING MID
LVL TEMPS SHOULD CAP MOST CONVECTION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED PM STORM OVR THE NE PART OF THE CWA. ENSEMBLE MEAN
850 TEMPS OVR THE WEEKEND OF ARND 14C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE U70S ALLEGHENIES...TO M80S SUSQ VALLEY.
MONDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST...AS UPPER
RIDGE PASSES OVR PA. WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS AFTN
CONVECTION OVR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS TO THE M80S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO EASTERN PA WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE
WARM-UP OVR THE NORMALLY WARMER SUSQ VALLEY.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE PULLS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST TUE-WED...MERGING IT WITH APPROACHING TROF OVR THE GRT LKS.
ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU CENTRAL PA ARND
WED OF NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRONT
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD RAINFALL OVR THE AREA. A BLEND
OF LATEST GEFS AND OPER MDL DATA SUGGEST AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
M/CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WNDS WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT OBS/T-TD
SPREADS AND OBS FROM LAST NIGHT...LCL IFR CONDS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO BFD AND IPT. FOG/ST WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE AND PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE NERN CONUS. THEREFORE WITH RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING...SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
BY THE EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS.
GIVEN XPCTD CVRG AND LOW POINT PROBABILITIES...WILL NOT MENTION
PCPN IN TAFS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING
WILL DISSIPATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH CU FIELD GIVING WAY
TO M/CLR CONDS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT-SUN MAINLY OVER NRN PA
AS UPSTREAM TSTM COMPLEX/S DROP SEWD ACRS SERN CANADA/LWR GRT
LKS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR. SCT PM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-MON...VFR. A.M. FOG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
420 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING WITH A COLD FRONT BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONUS TODAY WITH LITTLE DEVIATION IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM RECENT DAYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
LKLY FROM THE EARLY AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
THE KEY FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYC FLOW ALOFT...ROTATING SEWD ACRS THE ERN
GRT LKS AND SERN CANADA. THIS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS DISCERNIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING WV LOOP...WITH THE COLDEST 500MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C ASSOCD WITH A VORTMAX CROSSING LAKE HURON. THE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE SEWD AND
EXTEND ACRS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN. STRONG BLYR HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LKLY
BEING REACHED BY 18Z. THE HI RES NAM AND HRRR SHOW CONVECTION
INITIATING OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BTWN 18-19Z WITH INC CVRG
SPREADING SWD BY 22Z. DESPITE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MSTR...IT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
DURING PEAK HEATING...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 7 C/KM.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN THE SEE TEXT CATG OUTLOOK BASED ON
THIS LINE OF THINKING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AFT
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE ALL
TOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.
MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS BUT STILL
ABOUT 2-5F BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATE NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S OVR THE N/W MTNS TO THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL AND SERN VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN TROF POSITION WILL MOVE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST A SCHC OF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE
ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES EASTWARD TREK AS THE PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI- ZONAL ORIENTATION INTO SAT.
AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHS COULD BRING A
WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
EARLY SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS MOVE THIS PERTURBATION FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVERLAYING THE AREA AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE MASON DIXON BY 06Z SUN. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD HAVE INCREASED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE...PRESENCE OF DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUNDAY...AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. CURRENTLY THE
ONLY FOR SURE DRY DAYS SEEM TO BE FRIDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH GIVEN
VARIABILITY OF MESOSCALE FEATURES THROUGH SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AT
LONGER RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO
HEDGE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING A FEW DEGS
WARMER EACH DAY. THE CURRENT RUNS ARE TRENDING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER SUNDAY AND MONDAYS
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BE COURTESY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL DISRUPT THE MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TUE- WED. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN THIS PATTERN THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT TIMING
VARIATION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
M/CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WNDS WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT OBS/T-TD
SPREADS AND OBS FROM LAST NIGHT...LCL IFR CONDS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO BFD AND IPT. FOG/ST WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE AND PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE NERN CONUS. THEREFORE WITH RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING...SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
BY THE EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS.
GIVEN XPCTD CVRG AND LOW POINT PROBABILITIES...WILL NOT MENTION
PCPN IN TAFS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING
WILL DISSIPATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH CU FIELD GIVING WAY
TO M/CLR CONDS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT-SUN MAINLY OVER NRN PA
AS UPSTREAM TSTM COMPLEX/S DROP SEWD ACRS SERN CANADA/LWR GRT
LKS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR. SCT PM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-MON...VFR. A.M. FOG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1156 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT...WITH LIFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 KT WILL PREVAIL. BY AROUND 16Z THURSDAY...CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE...WITH ANY MVFR BR DISSIPATING.
CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RESUMING BY
20Z. IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE /AROUND 05Z FRIDAY/ AT KAMA.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
UPDATE...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CONVECTION THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AS EVIDENT BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
DECREASE IN TOTAL LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THE MOMENTUM OF THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY SURVIVE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...BUT A ROGUE WIND GUST UP TO 50 MPH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 4
AM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A CLAUDE TO CANADIAN LINE. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES.
REGARDING THE PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
GOOD BET TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ADRIAN TO
BEAVER LINE AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY 3-8 DEGREES IN
THESE AREAS. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG ISSUES.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
AVIATION...
HEALTHY SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF KAMA HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW-ENHANCED SURFACE TROF. OUTFLOW FROM THESE
STORMS EXPECTED TO CAUSE EASTERLY SURFACE WIND AT KAMA. WILL MONITOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVLEPMENT CLOSELY...AND BE READY TO AMEND IF
THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN TO IMPACT KAMA TERMINAL DIRECTLY.
OTHERWISE...MOIST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND 06Z THURSDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AROUND 16Z
THURSDAY WHEN CEILINGS LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...CLOUD BASES EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO VFR
RANGE AT KDHT AND KGUY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE AT
KAMA AS SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...AND RETURNING CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST. COMPACT MID/UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CIRCULATION. TO THE WEST...OTHER THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CO. HAVE SEEN ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AND ALSO ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. MID/UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OK TONIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA
THIS EVENING. STEERING FLOW IS STILL WEAK...SO SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT. HUNG ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING GIVEN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK
CAPPING IN PLACE ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY LOWER THAN IN THE
EAST AND NORTHWEST GIVEN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING ASIDE
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST LAPS AND RAP ANALYSIS DATA SHOW MLCAPES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 1000-2500 J/KG RANGE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHWEST. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/20-30 KTS/ IS ALSO IN THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE
STRONGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF COMPACT UPPER LOW. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IF STORMS MAKE
IT IN...WHILE WEAKER SHEAR WILL KEEP STORMS MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY
ACROSS THE EAST BUT THEY COULD BE STRONG OR BRIEFLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS OVER AN INCH WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. LATE
TONIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A 20-30 KT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
LLJ. ALSO MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DUE TO MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT VSBYS FROM
FALLING REAL LOW.
THE COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS INITIATE IN SOUTHERN CO/NORTHEAST
NM DURING THE AFTERNOON EITHER ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IF THEY DO...CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
UPPER LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING
TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR ONE MORE DAY
THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE REMAINING OVER EASTERN NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...BELIEVE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO
ANY CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO REBOUND...WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...INDUCING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN
RESPONSE...WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
OFF THIS WEEKEND...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SILENT POPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE EXPANDING AREA WIDE BY
TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND MID
/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACTIVITY.
KB
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE 30 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES AND SUNDAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EAST BEHIND
THE DRYLINE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
DURING THIS TIME...SO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE FUELS ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...RECENT
RAINFALL AND EFFECT ON FUELS SHOULD MITIGATE THESE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT.
KB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
354 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
AT 3 AM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
FERGUS FALLS MINNESOTA SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO FORT DODGE IOWA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED A 53 MPH WIND GUST AT HANLEY FALLS
MINNESOTA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH 900-800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BOTH THE
MESO AND BROADER SCALE MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
CONVECTION AND THEY SHOW THAT BOTH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER AREA SHOWERS WAS DETECTED BY RADAR FURTHER EAST FROM BIG
FORK MINNESOTA EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE TWIN CITIES. THERE HAS BEEN
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION REPORTED WITH THIS SCATTERED BAND OF
CONVECTION. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE 800-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE WEAKENING THIS MORNING. DUE TO THIS...KEPT
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. FURTHER
EAST...THERE IS ONE MORE AREA OF SHOWERS BETWEEN RICE LAKE AND
MONDOVI WISCONSIN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 700-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE FORCING QUICKLY WANES BY 07.12Z.
FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT THE 500 MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MUCH OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WISCONSIN. BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND GFS RAISE
THE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER WITH THE FLOW COMING OFF
THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF IOWA AND MISSOURI...THESE
DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH. THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE THEIR DEW
POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AT MOST. THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE
REALISTIC. AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE AND ML CAPES ARE ALSO TOO
HIGH. AS A RESULT...PREFER THE MUCH FURTHER NORTH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAT THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW. IF THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN
TO DEVELOP...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THEM TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ON SATURDAY...THE DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK TOO HIGH...SO USED
THE GFE MIX DOWN TOOL TO LOWER THEM DOWN TO AROUND 60. THIS MAY BE
EVEN STILL A BIT TOO HIGH. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP OUR
HEAT INDICES PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
THE 07.00Z MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WHILE ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
EVENING. THEY DIFFER ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM DO NOT HAVE THIS FRONT MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEY ARE ALSO MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH
THEIR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS LESS
PRECIPITATION AND IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT.
CONSIDERING THE SPEED OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
ECMWF SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IT
APPEARS THAT GFS IS ONCE AGAIN TOO HIGH WITH ITS DEW POINTS...SO
WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF ON THAT TOO. WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS...THE ML CAPES STAY UNDER UNDER 1000 J/KG...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1140 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
THE FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES CONTINUES TO BE WITH ANY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
STREAMING DOWN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA...BUT MAINLY WEST
OF RST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...SO IF ANY SHOWERS DO
MANAGE TO OCCUR AT RST AND SKIES CLEAR OUT BEHIND IT THEN SOME FOG
COULD ALSO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THINK THAT THIS IS A LOW ENOUGH OF A
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SKIRT THE TAF SITES TOMORROW AS WELL
THOUGH RST WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE DESPITE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY BEING OFF TO THE WEST. A CU FIELD WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DKTS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE EAST TODAY TO NEAR THE MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY
SHOWS WHAT SHUD BE THE LAST VORT MAX COMING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. VORT IS NOW IN NE MN AND WILL SLIDE INTO NW WI THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE A FEW SHWRS AND TSTMS E
PTNS OF OUR AREA. MAY SEE ISOL AFTN CONVECTION AGAIN IN THE
EAST...BUT LACK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD MAKE AFTN CONVECTION
MORE ISOL THAN YESTERDAY. FARTHER WEST...SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE BECOME
PRETTY ACTIVE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS WC INTO SW MN WITH CONVECTION
FIRING IN THE STREAM OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMING OVER THE RIDGE.
INCREASED CONVECTION IN THAT AREA SEEMS TO BE TIED TO WEAK 850 MB
WAA WITH WINDS SHOWING SOME VEERING IN THAT AREA. NAM/GFS PLAY THIS
AS MAINLY A MORNING EVENT WITH 850 MB WINDS BACKING BY 18Z
DECREASING THE WAA. HRRR FORECAST RADAR REFLECTIVITY HAS ALSO BEEN
FOLLOWING THIS LOGIC.
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY IN THE WEST TODAY. AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS UP AROUND 2C...BUT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL TEMPER THE WARMUP. STARTING OUT VERY WARM WITH CURRENT
TEMPS AROUND 70...BUT LIMITED WARM UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE
TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YDA.
NEXT PLAYER IS THE SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS UTAH WHICH MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING NE INTO THE DKTS THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS N MN ON FRIDAY. POPS WILL GRADE FROM THE HIGH
CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE N CWA TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WARM AND A BIT BREEZY ON FRIDAY AS TROF MOVING ACROSS N MN TURNS
WINDS SWLY. SHUD SEE SOME HIGHS NEAR 90 IN SW AREAS.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE WEST SUNDAY AFTN AND ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. VERY WARM AND BREEZY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. BOTH DAYS SHUD SEE SOME HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90
DEGREE RANGE. WITH ENUF SUN COULD REACH LOWER 90S IN THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING A
CHILLY COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
A FEW AFTN SHWRS IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE
THAT FOR LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WEAK AND STATIONARY LLJ HAS WORKED WITH A NICE MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALOFT TO FORCE A RATHER PERSISTENT BAND OF -SHRA/-TSRA JUST WEST
OF AXN/RWF OVERNIGHT. LATEST RAP WANTS TO BRING BOTH FEATURES EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH WEAKENING BOTH IN THE PROCESS. NEW TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS BEING SEEN EAST OF THE MAIN TSRA BAND...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN INSTABILITY/FORCING. WITH
THAT SAID...WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...COVERAGE IN TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CITIES THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE LIMITED. ASSUMING SUN BREAKS OUT THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS
SHOWING STRONG INSTABILITY FORMING ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH THE NAM IS
SHOWING THE MPX AREA BEING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MORE LIMITED IF
THIS ARE IN THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH NO MENTION OF VCSH IS CURRENTLY
IN TAFS...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE HAS BEEN ACTIVE THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND THE AXIS LIKELY WILL NOT MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL
WITH BOUTS OF SCT CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...THOUGH HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMES. RATHER THAN PLASTER
THE TAFS WITH VCSH/VCTS...KEPT THOSE TO A MINIMUM...WITH NOMENTION
RETURNING UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF AT AXN/RNH/EAU. THE VCSH LATE
AT AXN IS TO ACCOUNT FOR REMNANTS OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE
DAKOTAS LATER TODAY...WHILE THE VCSH AT RNH/EAU WAS INCLUDED SINCE
THIS IS WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE...WITH WHAT WAS
SEEN LAST NIGHT POSSIBLY MOVING TO WI TONIGHT.
KMSP...LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD...AS
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...THE FORCING IS
LACKING. MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS HELPED KICK OF TSRA THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY...WITH NO UPSTREAM WAVE OF
NOTE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. WITH THAT SAID...WE COULD SEE PERIODS OF
-SHRA/-TSRA UNTIL THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY
MENTION VCSH THIS MORNING AS REMNANTS OF FORCING THAT LED TO WRN
MN STORMS LAST NIGHT TRIES WORKING INTO ERN MN.
.OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FRI...-SHRA/-TSRA PSBL IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR. WINDS SW 8-12KTS.
SAT/SUN...VFR. WINDS SAT SW 10-15KTS. WINDS SUN SW 15-20KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. CHC TSRA SUN EVENING/NGT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
BAP/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
715 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN A FEW SPOTS. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL EXIT ON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MID-SUMMER HEAT TO WESTERN NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF
CENTERED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH THIS TROF
FORECAST TO SLOWLY EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE FORECAST
DRAWING UPON PERSISTENCE...AND WEIGHING OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM
YESTERDAY OVER MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
NAM/RGEM/GFS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING...THOUGH THEY
LACK THE RESOLUTION TO FULLY RESOLVE THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES. THE HRRR FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO HOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPED YESTERDAY...PROVIDING THE MOST USEFUL FORECAST GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO BREEZES...AND ALSO ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING INTO THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MINIMAL INSTABILITY UP TO AROUND 500
J/KG...WHICH IS GENERALLY MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT...AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE OR EVEN
NEAR-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM`S. HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS OF AROUND 8000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DROP SOME SMALL HAIL. LAKE SHADOWING WILL LIKELY
KEEP LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF EACH OF THE LAKES DRY
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST OF BUFFALO METRO DRY TODAY.
WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORTH TOWNS SINCE THEY ARE CLOSER TO
THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE A TAD
WARMER TODAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TODAY.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUALLY EXIT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A FEW CLOUDS LEFT OVER THIS EVENING FROM ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...BUT THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT...AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE COOLER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE MID-50S NEAR THE LAKES AND IN THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
NATION`S MIDSECTION. WHILE THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION IN THE PATTERN
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
THERE WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF FEATURES FOR OUR AREA TO CONTEND
WITH BEFOREHAND.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL COME ON FRIDAY...WHEN A MODERATELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CORRESPONDING 110-120 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT
TO LIFT A STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL RIDGING/DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MUCH WEAKER OVERALL LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD DIE DOWN RATHER QUICKLY IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING MECHANISMS. FOLLOWING THIS...THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING...THOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES.
AFTER THAT...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIPPLE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEADING FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE WORKING INTO OUR REGION...THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIANCE IN THE TIMING
AND POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...THE FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY NAM/ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL
TEND TO FOCUS CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/GENESEE
VALLEY EASTWARD...WHILE THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
GFS WOULD LARGELY KEEP ANY CONVECTION CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES...
FOR NOW FEEL IT PRUDENT TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR
BOTH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT WITH A TIMING AND
POSITIONING TILTED A BIT CLOSER TO THE FASTER NAM/ECMWF/GEM
CONSENSUS.
TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REFLECT THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE THE AXIS OF THE CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE RESULTING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A STEADY
WARMING AND MUGGIFYING TREND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +12C TO +16C
ON SUNDAY CLIMBING TO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY. SUCH
WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON SUNDAY AND THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WITH A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS POSSIBLY CRACKING THE 90
DEGREE MARK MONDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE FOR ESPECIALLY UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POPPING UP ACROSS OUR WARMER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON... THOUGH FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DRY FORECAST WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AFTER THAT...THE LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO FEATURE A
TRANSITION BACK TO A COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE REGIME AS A PACIFIC
LOW BARRELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND INTO
CANADA...TAKING UP STATION IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PRECEDED
BY A LEADING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHILE
SOME LESSER DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THE TWO GUIDANCE PACKAGES
HAVE BOTH CONTINUED TO SLOW THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH NOW
LOOKS AS IF IT COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT FAR WESTERN SECTIONS LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY OOZING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BACKED OFF A BIT ON POPS FOR
TUESDAY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY ASSOCIATED CHANCE POPS NOW INDICATED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS. SOME STRONGER
SHOWERS MAY BUILD INTO THUNDERSTORMS...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. BUF/ART WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHADOWED BY THE
LAKES...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...WHILE ROC/IAG/JHW WILL ALL HAVE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHILE
CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR/MVFR...EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY TO BE VFR.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
953 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL REACH
THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWING SOME
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING IN NW OH THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADDED A 20
POP TO THAT AREA. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A SMALL MENTION IN FAR
NE OH AND NW PA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS.
ORIGINAL...EVENING SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING INTO
NORTHERN OHIO AND SKIES ARE CLEAR IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THESE CLOUDS TOO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE WITH A TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER ACROSS THE AREA THAN YESTERDAY.
GIVEN THIS UPPER TROF HOWEVER...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DECK WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS.
WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NWRN PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT FAIR SKIES AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BUT PASSAGE WILL BE SUBTLE AS THERMAL
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. STILL CONCERNED
THAT ANY COMPLEX DEVELOPING ON THE GRADIENT TO OUR NORTHWEST WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO OR
NORTHWEST PA. STARTED PRECIP CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT FAR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUED SATURDAY. RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
NWRN PA SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS BASED ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS.
THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND WOULD SUPPORT A LOWER POP. WILL WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS
FOR FINE TUNING. TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD REACHING 80S FOR HIGH MOST PLACES (EXCEPT NWRN PA) SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE SURFACE AND
AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY...WE CAN
EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP TO WARM AIR TEMPERATURES
BACK TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE WARM UP WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STRONG STREAM OF
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. TIMING OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GOOD NEWS IS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
NOT THAT COOL BUT WE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING TO HOIST ANY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING WITH A COLD FRONT BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONUS TODAY WITH LITTLE DEVIATION IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM RECENT DAYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
LKLY FROM THE EARLY AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
THE KEY FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYC FLOW ALOFT...ROTATING SEWD ACRS THE ERN
GRT LKS AND SERN CANADA. THIS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS DISCERNIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING WV LOOP...WITH THE COLDEST 500MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C ASSOCD WITH A VORTMAX CROSSING LAKE HURON. THE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE SEWD AND
EXTEND ACRS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN. STRONG BLYR HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LKLY
BEING REACHED BY 18Z. THE HI RES NAM AND HRRR SHOW CONVECTION
INITIATING OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BTWN 18-19Z WITH INC CVRG
SPREADING SWD BY 22Z. DESPITE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MSTR...IT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
DURING PEAK HEATING...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 7 C/KM.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN THE SEE TEXT CATG OUTLOOK BASED ON
THIS LINE OF THINKING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AFT
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE ALL
TOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.
MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS BUT STILL
ABOUT 2-5F BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATE NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S OVR THE N/W MTNS TO THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL AND SERN VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE SETTLED WX TO THE REGION. STILL CAN/T RULE
OUT AN AFTN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR NE ZONES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
DIVING SE INTO NEW ENG. HOWEVER...BULK OF FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE HEADED NORTH OF PA...SO WILL ONLY MENTION A 20
PCT CHC. AM SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND CU BY
AFTN OVR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS. MDL 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPS FROM THE M70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO THE L80 ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
FRI NIGHT LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AS RIDGE SLIDES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MDL DATA HINTS THAT REMNANTS OF A DYING
MCS COULD APPROACH NW PA TOWARD DAWN...BRINGING INCR CLOUDS AND
THE CHC OF A SHRA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLUSTERING OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A BETTER THAN AVG
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD PA
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMER AND MORE
SETTLED CONDS THAN WE/VE SEEN RECENTLY. HOWEVER...STILL A CHC OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND...AS NORTHERN PA WILL
REMAIN ON PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE. BEST CHC WILL BE SAT...WHEN
MDLS SHOW FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N OF PA. RISING MID
LVL TEMPS SHOULD CAP MOST CONVECTION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED PM STORM OVR THE NE PART OF THE CWA. ENSEMBLE MEAN
850 TEMPS OVR THE WEEKEND OF ARND 14C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE U70S ALLEGHENIES...TO M80S SUSQ VALLEY.
MONDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST...AS UPPER
RIDGE PASSES OVR PA. WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS AFTN
CONVECTION OVR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS TO THE M80S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO EASTERN PA WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE
WARM-UP OVR THE NORMALLY WARMER SUSQ VALLEY.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE PULLS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST TUE-WED...MERGING IT WITH APPROACHING TROF OVR THE GRT LKS.
ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU CENTRAL PA ARND
WED OF NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRONT
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD RAINFALL OVR THE AREA. A BLEND
OF LATEST GEFS AND OPER MDL DATA SUGGEST AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR STRATUS AT IPT WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY 13Z. THE MAIN UPDATE
FOR THE 12Z TAFS WAS TO ADD VCNTY SH/TS FOR THE AFTN. HI RES MDL
DATA IS ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BEGINNING AROUND 17Z. USED VCTS ONLY AT IPT GIVEN 6HR
CCFP BUT A TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE IN CTP AIRSPACE FROM
THIS AFTN THRU THE EARLY EVE. STORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM NW TO SE AND
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE NERN CONUS. THEREFORE WITH RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING...SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
BY THE EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS.
GIVEN XPCTD CVRG AND LOW POINT PROBABILITIES...WILL NOT MENTION
PCPN IN TAFS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING
WILL DISSIPATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH CU FIELD GIVING WAY
TO M/CLR CONDS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT-SUN MAINLY OVER NRN PA
AS UPSTREAM TSTM COMPLEX/S DROP SEWD ACRS SERN CANADA/LWR GRT
LKS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR. SCT PM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-MON...VFR. A.M. FOG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
621 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING WITH A COLD FRONT BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONUS TODAY WITH LITTLE DEVIATION IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM RECENT DAYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
LKLY FROM THE EARLY AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
THE KEY FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYC FLOW ALOFT...ROTATING SEWD ACRS THE ERN
GRT LKS AND SERN CANADA. THIS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS DISCERNIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING WV LOOP...WITH THE COLDEST 500MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C ASSOCD WITH A VORTMAX CROSSING LAKE HURON. THE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE SEWD AND
EXTEND ACRS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN. STRONG BLYR HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LKLY
BEING REACHED BY 18Z. THE HI RES NAM AND HRRR SHOW CONVECTION
INITIATING OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BTWN 18-19Z WITH INC CVRG
SPREADING SWD BY 22Z. DESPITE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MSTR...IT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
DURING PEAK HEATING...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 7 C/KM.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN THE SEE TEXT CATG OUTLOOK BASED ON
THIS LINE OF THINKING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AFT
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE ALL
TOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.
MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS BUT STILL
ABOUT 2-5F BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATE NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S OVR THE N/W MTNS TO THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL AND SERN VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE SETTLED WX TO THE REGION. STILL CAN/T RULE
OUT AN AFTN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR NE ZONES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
DIVING SE INTO NEW ENG. HOWEVER...BULK OF FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE HEADED NORTH OF PA...SO WILL ONLY MENTION A 20
PCT CHC. AM SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND CU BY
AFTN OVR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS. MDL 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPS FROM THE M70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO THE L80 ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
FRI NIGHT LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AS RIDGE SLIDES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MDL DATA HINTS THAT REMNANTS OF A DYING
MCS COULD APPROACH NW PA TOWARD DAWN...BRINGING INCR CLOUDS AND
THE CHC OF A SHRA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLUSTERING OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A BETTER THAN AVG
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD PA
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMER AND MORE
SETTLED CONDS THAN WE/VE SEEN RECENTLY. HOWEVER...STILL A CHC OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND...AS NORTHERN PA WILL
REMAIN ON PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE. BEST CHC WILL BE SAT...WHEN
MDLS SHOW FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N OF PA. RISING MID
LVL TEMPS SHOULD CAP MOST CONVECTION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED PM STORM OVR THE NE PART OF THE CWA. ENSEMBLE MEAN
850 TEMPS OVR THE WEEKEND OF ARND 14C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE U70S ALLEGHENIES...TO M80S SUSQ VALLEY.
MONDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST...AS UPPER
RIDGE PASSES OVR PA. WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS AFTN
CONVECTION OVR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS TO THE M80S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO EASTERN PA WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE
WARM-UP OVR THE NORMALLY WARMER SUSQ VALLEY.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE PULLS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST TUE-WED...MERGING IT WITH APPROACHING TROF OVR THE GRT LKS.
ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU CENTRAL PA ARND
WED OF NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRONT
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD RAINFALL OVR THE AREA. A BLEND
OF LATEST GEFS AND OPER MDL DATA SUGGEST AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1-200FT STRATUS AND FOG AT BFD ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATED AT A FEW
HOURS AGO...BUT 500FT CIGS NOW IMPACTING IPT ON QUE. IR SATL
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING ST INVOF BFD SO WILL KEEP TEMPO GOING
UNTL 11Z BUT PROB IS LOW. FOG/ST WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE AND PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE NERN CONUS. THEREFORE WITH RELATIVELY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING...SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
BY THE EARLY AFTN ALONG WITH WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS.
GIVEN XPCTD CVRG AND LOW POINT PROBABILITIES...WILL NOT MENTION
PCPN IN TAFS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING
WILL DISSIPATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH CU FIELD GIVING WAY
TO M/CLR CONDS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT-SUN MAINLY OVER NRN PA
AS UPSTREAM TSTM COMPLEX/S DROP SEWD ACRS SERN CANADA/LWR GRT
LKS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR. SCT PM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-MON...VFR. A.M. FOG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
758 AM PDT Thu Jun 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A closed low will impact the Pacific Northwest through Saturday.
This will lead to unsettled, showery and occasionally wet periods
through Saturday night. Temperatures will be well below normal.
Temperatures will temporarily warm to seasonal levels for the
beginning of the work week...but unsettled weather will likely
return by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast seems to handle timing of precipitation and
thunderstorms quite well but will use the 11Z run of the HRRR to
fine tune the onset of precipitation which includes a shield of
stable rainfall currently crossing the Cascades along with the
development of some thunderstorms developing behind it. HRRR
suggests pulse variety thunderstorms starting in the East Slopes
North Cascades vicinity near 21z then moving with a storm motion
to the northeast at 35 MPH so the thunder mention gets spread east
with time and should decrease in intensity near 6Z but may not end
until 12Z Friday. KOTX 12Z sounding temperature profile not very
useful to assess convection potential other than to note that the
winds do impressively increase with height and the low level
inversion below 950mb should go away in the next few hours and
this should allow most of this mornings low clouds and fog to
dissipate. May issue a morning update if any of the above thinking
leads me to. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: There is some threat of patchy fog around the KGEG, KSFF,
KCOE TAFs sites, given the clearing skies and cool temperatures
combined with the recent precipitation. Look for clouds to increase
and thicken this morning, with rain developing after 15-18z from the
west, reaching the ID border toward 23-01Z this evening. Expect some
breezy conditions as well, with gusts up to 20 kts in the late
morning/early afternoon. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
localized MVFR cigs are possible in showers.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 65 43 59 41 56 43 / 50 80 50 50 60 50
Coeur d`Alene 67 45 60 43 54 44 / 40 80 50 50 60 60
Pullman 65 44 56 38 54 41 / 30 70 50 50 60 60
Lewiston 73 47 62 47 62 47 / 20 60 40 40 60 50
Colville 66 47 61 45 58 46 / 60 70 60 60 60 50
Sandpoint 66 45 59 42 53 42 / 30 80 70 70 70 60
Kellogg 66 42 56 41 49 43 / 20 80 70 70 80 70
Moses Lake 65 46 65 46 67 48 / 60 50 30 40 20 10
Wenatchee 61 47 63 48 65 49 / 80 30 30 40 10 10
Omak 61 45 64 43 64 46 / 70 60 60 50 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
632 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
AT 3 AM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
FERGUS FALLS MINNESOTA SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO FORT DODGE IOWA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED A 53 MPH WIND GUST AT HANLEY FALLS
MINNESOTA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH 900-800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BOTH THE
MESO AND BROADER SCALE MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
CONVECTION AND THEY SHOW THAT BOTH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER AREA SHOWERS WAS DETECTED BY RADAR FURTHER EAST FROM BIG
FORK MINNESOTA EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE TWIN CITIES. THERE HAS BEEN
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION REPORTED WITH THIS SCATTERED BAND OF
CONVECTION. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE 800-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE WEAKENING THIS MORNING. DUE TO THIS...KEPT
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. FURTHER
EAST...THERE IS ONE MORE AREA OF SHOWERS BETWEEN RICE LAKE AND
MONDOVI WISCONSIN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 700-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE FORCING QUICKLY WANES BY 07.12Z.
FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT THE 500 MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MUCH OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WISCONSIN. BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND GFS RAISE
THE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER WITH THE FLOW COMING OFF
THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF IOWA AND MISSOURI...THESE
DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH. THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE THEIR DEW
POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AT MOST. THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE
REALISTIC. AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE AND ML CAPES ARE ALSO TOO
HIGH. AS A RESULT...PREFER THE MUCH FURTHER NORTH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAT THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW. IF THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN
TO DEVELOP...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THEM TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ON SATURDAY...THE DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK TOO HIGH...SO USED
THE GFE MIX DOWN TOOL TO LOWER THEM DOWN TO AROUND 60. THIS MAY BE
EVEN STILL A BIT TOO HIGH. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP OUR
HEAT INDICES PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
THE 07.00Z MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WHILE ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
EVENING. THEY DIFFER ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM DO NOT HAVE THIS FRONT MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEY ARE ALSO MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH
THEIR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS LESS
PRECIPITATION AND IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT.
CONSIDERING THE SPEED OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
ECMWF SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IT
APPEARS THAT GFS IS ONCE AGAIN TOO HIGH WITH ITS DEW POINTS...SO
WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF ON THAT TOO. WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS...THE ML CAPES STAY UNDER UNDER 1000 J/KG...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
632 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. EXPECT
ANY CEILINGS TO BE VFR. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS WELL WEST
OF THE AREA ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THIS IS WHERE
MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
AREA. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING OFF
THE ADIRONDACKS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER VERY DIFFUSE
SHORT WAVE WORKING THE TERRAIN...THE COLD ATMOSPHERE AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. THE -20C IS DOWN BELOW
20,000 FEET AND WETBULB IS WELL BELOW 10,000 FEET SO THE THREAT OF
HAIL CONTINUES.
FOR THE UPDATE...MAINLY RETOOLED POPS (BASED ON RADAR COVERAGE). DID
BACK OFF NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED BASED ON THE WEAKNESS OF FORCING AND
THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT INDICATES NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED.
STILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THE SMALL HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE AND SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH
THEM. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 70S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. MANY AREAS WILL NOT RECEIVE
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WHERE SHOWERS TAKE PLACE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF DOWNPOUR...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND POSSIBLY EVEN SMALL HAIL.
AFTER SUNSET ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AND
HAVE THUNDER ONLY MENTIONED UNTIL 02Z. ONCE AGAIN WITH PARTLY
SKIES TONIGHT...FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED AS THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OR WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. WHILE FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY START OUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. MUCAPES ARE ONCE
AGAIN CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND ZERO AND WBZ HEIGHTS 6-8 KFT...SO SMALL HAIL IS STILL
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FA WILL HAVE THE NOSE OF A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED 120+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET POINTED DIRECTLY AT US LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH H8 WINDS UP TO 35 KTS...THUS SOME STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF FA
WHICH IS THE AREA SPC HAS IN A SLIGHT RISK. WILL INCLUDE THIS IN
THE HWO WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH STILL SOME UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE PCPN AND AREAS IMPACTED. PREFER THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS TO THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST AND TOO AMPLIFIED WHICH DRIVES THE
PCPN WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF MUCH OF FA.
NAM/ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THEIR TIMING OF THE PCPN ON
SATURDAY AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING AS WELL AS THE ORIENTATION OF
THE PCPN SHIELD COVERING MOST OF FA. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT HAVE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS INSTABILITY LACKING WITH MUCAPES AT
MOST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND SHOWALTER INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE.
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO GENERALLY
TOTAL BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE COOLER IF
RAINFALL ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT WITH 50/50 BLEND OF 18Z/06 HPC GUIDANCE...AND 00Z/07
GMOS FOR MOST GRIDDED FIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTIONS
MENTIONED BELOW.
SUNDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE SHOULD PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...THEN DRY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND
70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SUN NT-TUE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS TO CREST OVER OR NEAR
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE
MORNING...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MAXES REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND AROUND 80 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE
TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE 50/50 BLEND DESCRIBED ABOVE...GIVEN
850 TEMPS APPROACHING +13 TO +15 C. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 55-60 RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
SUN NT/MON AM...THEN RISE TO 60-65 IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 50S
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS MON NT/TUE AM. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND
WELL AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TUE NT-WED...MOST 00Z/07 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE CLOUDS...HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED CHC POPS. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE
CLOUDS...MAX TEMPS WED SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER...GENERALLY MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADKS...AND ARE CURRENTLY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS TSRA ACTIVITY WILL COME CLOSE TO KGFL EARLY THIS AFTN...AND
MAY IMPACT KALB BY THE MID AFTN HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT KPSF/KPOU FOR THE LATE AFTN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED...AND JUST A BRIEF BURST
OF MODERATE RAIN AND SOME OCSL LTG IS EXPECTED WITHIN ANY OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY. WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR TSRA...FLYING CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR...OTHERWISE...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH 00 UTC...WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.
WITH LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SOME BR/FG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KGFL.
THIS MAY BE AIDED BY ANY PLACES THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTN.
SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...WHICH MAY BE
SIMILAR IN NATURE TO THIS MORNING/S FOG AND STRATUS. ANY
FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE MID MORNING FRIDAY WITH JUST
SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.
SUN-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
AREA. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST. AVERAGE BASIN RIVER FORECASTS WILL BE UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TODAY AND FRIDAY AND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1250 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
AREA. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING OFF
THE ADIRONDACKS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER VERY DIFFUSE
SHORT WAVE WORKING THE TERRAIN...THE COLD ATMOSPHERE AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. THE -20C IS DOWN BELOW
20,000 FEET AND WETBULB IS WELL BELOW 10,000 FEET SO THE THREAT OF
HAIL CONTINUES.
FOR THE UPDATE...MAINLY RETOOLED POPS (BASED ON RADAR COVERAGE). DID
BACK OFF NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED BASED ON THE WEAKNESS OF FORCING AND
THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT INDICATES NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED.
STILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF THE SMALL HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE AND SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH
THEM. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 70S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. MANY AREAS WILL NOT RECEIVE
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WHERE SHOWERS TAKE PLACE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF DOWNPOUR...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND POSSIBLY EVEN SMALL HAIL.
AFTER SUNSET ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AND
HAVE THUNDER ONLY MENTIONED UNTIL 02Z. ONCE AGAIN WITH PARTLY
SKIES TONIGHT...FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED AS THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OR WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. WHILE FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY START OUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. MUCAPES ARE ONCE
AGAIN CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND ZERO AND WBZ HEIGHTS 6-8 KFT...SO SMALL HAIL IS STILL
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FA WILL HAVE THE NOSE OF A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED 120+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET POINTED DIRECTLY AT US LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH H8 WINDS UP TO 35 KTS...THUS SOME STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF FA
WHICH IS THE AREA SPC HAS IN A SLIGHT RISK. WILL INCLUDE THIS IN
THE HWO WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH STILL SOME UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE PCPN AND AREAS IMPACTED. PREFER THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS TO THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST AND TOO AMPLIFIED WHICH DRIVES THE
PCPN WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF MUCH OF FA.
NAM/ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THEIR TIMING OF THE PCPN ON
SATURDAY AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING AS WELL AS THE ORIENTATION OF
THE PCPN SHIELD COVERING MOST OF FA. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT HAVE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS INSTABILITY LACKING WITH MUCAPES AT
MOST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND SHOWALTER INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE.
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO GENERALLY
TOTAL BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE COOLER IF
RAINFALL ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT WITH 50/50 BLEND OF 18Z/06 HPC GUIDANCE...AND 00Z/07
GMOS FOR MOST GRIDDED FIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTIONS
MENTIONED BELOW.
SUNDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE SHOULD PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...THEN DRY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND
70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SUN NT-TUE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS TO CREST OVER OR NEAR
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUE
MORNING...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MAXES REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND AROUND 80 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE
TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE 50/50 BLEND DESCRIBED ABOVE...GIVEN
850 TEMPS APPROACHING +13 TO +15 C. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 55-60 RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
SUN NT/MON AM...THEN RISE TO 60-65 IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 50S
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS MON NT/TUE AM. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND
WELL AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TUE NT-WED...MOST 00Z/07 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE CLOUDS...HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED CHC POPS. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE
CLOUDS...MAX TEMPS WED SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER...GENERALLY MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A
MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF BETWEEN
12Z-13Z...GIVING WAY TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 01Z/FRI...WITH CLEARING
SKIES INITIALLY. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS...LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TOWARD...AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z/FRI...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...AND ALSO ANY OTHER
TAF SITES WHICH RECEIVE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
SUN-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
AREA. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST. AVERAGE BASIN RIVER FORECASTS WILL BE UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TODAY AND FRIDAY AND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
623 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA OVER
ERN AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN CONTS TO
SHOW THE DISSIPATION OF THIS PCPN AFT SUNSET...WITH A NEW BAND OF
SHOWERS ENTERING THE MTNS OF ME/NH AROUND 09Z.
REST OF THE GRIDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.
PREV DISC...
SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIE
OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WEAK DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN ZONES BUT POPS LOOKING A BIT HIGH SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE
SHOULD JUST SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. WILL
AGAIN SEE LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
FREEZING LEVEL AND STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST. WILL SEE TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WITH ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE CLEARING WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES SLIDES THRU OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IS SANDWICHED BY
WEAK UPR LVL AND SFC IMPULSES TO PROVIDE A SLGT CHC TO MAYBE A CHC
OF -SHRA JUST BARELY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW -SHRA MAY JUST REACH INTO OUR FCST AREA.
STRONG UPR LVL AND SFC RIDGE BUILD IN WITH DRY AND WARMING WX FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN UPR LVL TROF AND APPROACHING SLOW MOVING
FNT BRING A CHC OF SHRA TUESDAY NGT THRU THURSDAY.
GENERALLY USED GFS40...HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NGT. FOR REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST USED GMOS...EXCEPT
USED A BLEND OF GFS40 AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT....IMPROVING TO VFR ON FRIDAY. AREAS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. VFR
WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN
KEEPS WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
331 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
LATEST RAP BASED MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS ARE HIGHLIGHTING MUCAPES OF
APPROXIMATELY 200-500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS IS DOWN
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE 12Z DTX RAOB BUT IN LOCKSTEP WITH 07.12Z
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. FORECAST SOUNDING DIAGNOSIS SHOWS SUBTLE
600-400MB WARMING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...IN TOW OF THE
LATE MORNING SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THIS VERY SUBTLE WARMING APPEARS
ENOUGH TO KNOCK OUT ANY STEEPER LAPSE RATES RESIDING IN THE
MIDLEVELS. SO...WHILE AN ISO-SCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IS STILL POSSIBLE HERE AT PEAK HEATING (SEE SAGINAW BAY CONVECTIVE
FIELD)...OVERALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY MOVING
FORWARD/NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE SAME CONVECTIVE VIGOR AS YESTERDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK MIDLEVEL WARMING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED
MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTREMELY LOW. EXPECT A
NICE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN INTO THE 50S
ALL AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING LARGE SCALE PATTERN DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN RECENT DAYS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO REORIENT EASTWARD BEGINNING
ON FRIDAY. LONGWAVE ADJUSTMENT WILL BE ANCHORED BY A STRONG LEAD
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON CARVING INTO THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE PERIPHERY ALIGNED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WHILE THIS WILL BRIEFLY DAMPEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT
FIELD AS THE ENTIRE RIDGE AXIS EASES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY....THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPER/STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY GRADIENT ON THE NORTH PERIPHERY OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN THIS WELL MIXED PROFILE INTO 800 MB TEMPERATURES
RESIDING IN THE 10C RANGE...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS PREDOMINATELY IN THE
LOWER 80S. WEAK MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPILLING EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WILL SCRAPE THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB
TOWARD THE END OF THE HEATING CYCLE. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS 300-400 J/KG OF MUCAPE EMERGES
IN A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CREST THE UPPER RIDGE
ARCING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL LIKELY COMMENCE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION RESIDING THROUGH THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE DAY...BEFORE EVENTUALLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST ARRAY OF MODEL
GUIDANCE HOLDING FIRM IN PROJECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HOLD TO OUR
NORTH AS IT ALIGNS EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PRIMARY BUT WEAKENING
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. A LOWER PROBABILITY CERTAINLY EXISTS GIVEN
THE SETUP FOR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT TO CLIP AT LEAST THE TRI-CITIES/
THUMB SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING...WORTHY OF A SMALL POP. REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY INCREMENTALLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REAMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ASSUMING
NEARLY FULL INSOLATION AND A STANDARD MIXING PROFILE...THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.
DEEP WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. EXPANSIVE
HEIGHT FALL REGION TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SAME TIME...LOOSELY ORGANIZED CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MEANDERING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BEGIN THE GRADUAL TREK NORTHEAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREE ON WHAT DEGREE THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL
MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING LARGER SCALE WESTERN TROUGH. 12Z GFS
LOCKS ON MORE AGGRESSIVELY...DRIVING AN ATTENDANT PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. A ECMWF/CANADIAN CONSENSUS ALLOWS FOR MORE
SEPARATION...LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO A CONSIDERABLY LESS DEEP UPSTREAM
LONGWAVE TROUGH...LEAVING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TUESDAY
PERIOD ATTENDANT WITH THE ARRIVING DEEPER HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC MONDAY
SHOULD A THICKER HIGH CLOUD CANOPY EMERGE EARLY...ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH
TO THE WARM LAYER BY THIS POINT STILL SUPPORTS HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER
80S.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
WEEK WITH NORTHWEST ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OFF OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AS THIS HIGH SETTLES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL MODERATE BY THIS WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...AND WHILE MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WILL REMAIN DRY...A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME OVER LAKE HURON. THIS
INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS OVER
THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 151 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
//DISCUSSION...
MODEST MOISTURE WITHIN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AGAIN POSE A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE INGREDIENTS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS REALLY ON THE LEAN SIDE...SO ANY
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO ISO-SCT - POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AT
ANY ONE LOCATION IS LOW. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MIXED OUT ACCORDING
TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SO EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE NORTH NORTHWEST
WIND DIRECTION TO CARRY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT
APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. SURFACE RIDGING TONIGHT AND LOSS OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
337 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AND CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONTINENT... WITH A PROGRESSIVELY NARROWING SHARP RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA... BRACKETED BY A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONTINENT AND A SECOND UPPER LOW PUSHING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GENERAL THEME OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO BE DISSOLVE TO SOME
EXTENT AS IT BROADENS AND PUSHES EAST WHILE DISPLACING THE EASTERN
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE WESTERN UPPER LOW WILL WORK THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST DURING THAT TIME... AND EVENTUALLY EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY MONDAY... BRINGING OUR CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL.. THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO
RELAX AND BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE COURSE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE SPEED WITH WHICH IS DOES SO IS UNCERTAIN
GIVEN A FAIR DEGREE OF DIFFERENCE IN THE GFS... ECMWF... AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS HOLDING THE EARLY WEEK UPPER LOW
IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS MUCH LONGER THAN THE
ECMWF... WHICH RIDES IT NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY FAIRLY QUICKLY.
FOR NOW... WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST... WHICH MEANS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER
PERIODS BEYOND MONDAY IS FAIRLY LOW. TEND TO PREFER THE SOMEWHAT
FASTER FRONTAL ARRIVAL ADVERTISED BY THE GFS... NAM... AND SREF ON
SUNDAY IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF GIVEN THE STRONG JET CURRENTLY
PUSHING ONSHORE OUT WEST AND THE SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH
TO OUR EAST WHICH IS ALREADY STARTING TO APPEAR.
FOR TONIGHT... MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN CWFA... WITH THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUING TO
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SHIFT
NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT... BUT WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME ACTIVITY BEFORE THAT OCCURS WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG REMAINING IN PLACE AND SOME HIGHER RH VALUES NEAR THE
ELEVATED LFC FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN NEAR
THAT AREA OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... SO KEPT
SOME POPS IN FOR THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... BY SATURDAY
WE SHOULD SEE THE WARM SECTOR REALLY WORK INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA... WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER...
WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S THROUGH THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GETTING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED EAST BY THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE EVOLUTION AND
EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION... WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM...
GFS... AND ECMWF. HOWEVER... ALL SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE A FAIR
DEGREE TO OUR NORTHWEST... MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN CANADA BY
SUNDAY EVENING... WITH ITS ATTENDANCE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION
STANDPOINT... THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE TO OUR NORTH... BUT GIVEN TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WE SHOULD HAVE AMPLE MLCAPE IN PLACE
WITH VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG... AS WELL AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS WE WORK INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIMITED HOWEVER... GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND WARM FRONT SO FAR TO OUR NORTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST... AT THIS
POINT... THAT OUR MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE DETAILS
SHOULD CERTAINLY COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY MORNING... WITH PERHAPS SOME SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
COLD POOL PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE DEGREE TO WHICH
THAT OCCURS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON WHETHER REALITY WINDS UP MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS OR ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS... WHICH IS SLOWER
TO KICK THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST... WOULD CERTAINLY SUGGEST
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS WELL OUT OF THE AREA AT THAT POINT... AND
WOULD HAVE COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER FOR US. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...
DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT RATHER
THAN INCLUDE A CHANCE MENTION FOR SOMETHING ON DAY SIX. DID
INCLUDE A MENTION FROM LATER WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY BY
THURSDAY... AS THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS THAT WE WOULD START TO
SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION BY THAT POINT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
415 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHETHER
OR NOT MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL REALIZE ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL WEATHER
SITUATION TONIGHT/TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK A LOT LIKE THE
PAST 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR BEING A BIT WINDIER.
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD 1020MB HIGH OVER
THE IA/MO/IL BORDER AREA...WHILE OFF TO THE WEST A 1006MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND NEAR THE WY/SD
BORDER. IN BETWEEN...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT
MIXING INTO THE 800-750MB LEVEL HAS PROMOTED A BREEZY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH IN WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE GENERALLY LIVED UP TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS COULD FALL A HAIR SHORT OF TARGET VALUES GIVEN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD HIGH CIRRUS COVER. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT WITH
AN EMBEDDED LOW MEANDERING NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER. UPSTREAM...A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
500MB LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...A WELL-
DEFINED LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM EASTERN WY TO
CENTRAL MT IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST REGIONALLY...WITH THIS
WAVE ALREADY KICKING OFF SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS IN THE WY/SD/NE
BORDER AREA.
FOR THE 00Z-12Z NIGHT PERIOD...MADE ONLY ONE CHANGE OF NOTE TO
POPS/WEATHER. INSTEAD OF HAVING SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE 6-HOUR BLOCK FROM 00Z-06Z AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD...OPTED TO SHIFT THIS FORWARD BY 3 HOURS...INSTEAD
HIGHLIGHTING THE 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN ONLY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE
CWA...OR GENERALLY WEST OF A GREELEY-BEAVER CITY LINE. AND ONLY
KEPT THESE CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT AT THAT...AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TARGET THE DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST NEB.
LEANING ON HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP...HRRR AND
12Z 4KM WRF-NMM...EXPECTATION IS THAT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FIRING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEB...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS
EAST TOWARD THE CWA. OPTED TO PULL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING OUT
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH IS LINE WITH SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK...BUT DEFINITELY MADE SURE TO KEEP A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR 50 MPH WINDS/PENNY SIZE HAIL IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES
MANAGE TO GET INTO THE CWA. THAT IS OF COURSE NO GUARANTEE THAT IT
WILL GET IN...AND THUS ONLY THE 20 POPS...AS THE HRRR AND ALSO
THE 18Z NAM/12Z GFS JUST BARELY BRING QPF INTO THE EDGE OF THE CWA
BEFORE REALLY FADING IT OUT. JUST DON/T SEE MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT UNLESS FOR SOME REASON A MAJOR EASTWARD-SURGING COLD POOL
GETS GOING...AS BY THE TIME CONVECTION SHOULD GET INTO THE CWA
ANTICIPATE MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO ONLY BE AROUND
500 J/KG...WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 20KT OR LESS. TURNING
TO OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
LOWER LOW TEMPS BY A SOLID 4-5 DEGREES BASED ON TRENDS FROM PAST
FEW NIGHTS...NOW BRINGING MOST OF THE CWA DOWN INTO THE 58-60
RANGE. DESPITE SOUTHERLY BREEZES REMAINING A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...JUST DON/T SEE HOW TEMPS CAN HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S ALL
NIGHT WITHOUT HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
FOR THE FRIDAY DAYTIME 12Z-00Z PERIOD...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE AS IT ALREADY WAS...AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENS A BIT AND
BECOMES QUASI ZONAL...AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WELL UP INTO
CANADA...AND THE PARENT UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT DEEPER INTO THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. DESPITE THE DRY FORECAST...WOULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE SHOWER AFFECT A SMALL PORTION
OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING WITH SOME HINT OF 700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AROUND...BUT JUST CANNOT JUSTIFY INSERTING MORE THAN
SILENT VERY LOW POPS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMP-WISE...MADE
ALMOST NO CHANGE WHATSOEVER TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...WITH
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE 87-91 RANGE...AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE OF TODAY...AND WITH MIXING ADVERTISED TO
AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL PER NAM SOUNDINGS. IT WILL BE A BIT
WINDIER AS WELL THANKS TO HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF
THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA REALIZING
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30
TO POSSIBLY 35 MPH. ALONG THESE LINES...AND BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
TODAY...LOWERED DEWPOINTS QUITE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
ORDER OF 6-8 DEGREES...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
MIX ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING/MIXING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING FRIDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REGION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD RIDGING...WHILE A TROUGH SITS OVER THE EAST
COAST AND A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC
NW COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL IN PLACE...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST/SERN CONUS...AND LOW PRESSURE
SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEN THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE RIDGE AXIS GETS PUSHED EAST BY THE
PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THINGS STAYING CAPPED OFF WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE
13-16C RANGE. DID INCREASE WINDS A TOUCH ON SATURDAY INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE INCREASE AS SFC LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF NEB/NW KS AREA. AS FAR AS HIGHS GO...HAD TRENDED THEM
UP YESTERDAY...AND WILL KEEP THEM FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH 90S EXPECTED
CWA-WIDE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE MODELS AS WE GET INTO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WHILE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A QUICKER SOLUTION...THERE IS NOT COMPLETE AGREEMENT. AT 12Z
SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE
CENTRAL MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING S/SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AS FAR AS THE LOCATION OF THE
SFC FRONT GOES...BASICALLY RANGES FROM A QUICKER NAM/SREF WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING ROUGHLY A THIRD OF THE WAY IN...TO THE ECMWF WHICH
STILL HAS IT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO WRN KS. THROUGH THE DAY THAT
STORY REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...THE NAM/SREF/GFS ARE ON THE
QUICKER SIDE...SHOWING THE FRONT OUTSIDE THE E/SE CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 00Z MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS A TOUCH BEHIND. THOUGH
CONSIDERED INSERT A SLIGHT POP ACROSS THE FAR EAST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DIDNT WANT TO FLIP FLOP THE FORECAST...AND WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW TO SEE IF THE EC SPEEDS UP...OR THE OTHERS SLOW DOWN. INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE FASTER TREND IN THE
MODELS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS...BASICALLY TIGHTENED UP THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. LEFT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND CONSIDERED TAKING PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT COMPLETELY
ACROSS THE NW...BUT WANT TO WAIT AND MAKE SURE THIS TREND STICKS.
CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...INSTABILITY NOT AN
ISSUE...HAVE BETTER FORCING WITH THE FRONT/WAVE...AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS BETTER BUT NOT GREAT. WITH THE
INCREASED CHANCE OF A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
BECOME MORE TRICKY. DID TREND BACK DUE TO THE QUICKER TIMING...WITH
MID 80S IN THE NW TO NEAR 90 IN THE SE...BUT OBVIOUSLY ANY
ADDITIONAL TIMING CHANGES WOULD AFFECT THOSE FORECAST HIGHS.
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HINT AT THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE ACTIVITY
STARTING IN THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT WITHOUT BETTER AGREEMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT. A REINFORCING FRONT/SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
BUT DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE 40S/LOW 50S BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS AS WE GET INTO WED/THURS...AND
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES TO CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION..AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS POSSIBLY DRIFTING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WANT TO SEE
BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING POPS AT THIS POINT. NOT EXPECTING
BIG CHANGES IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH CLOUD COVER MAINLY CONSISTING OF
A THIN VEIL OF HIGH CIRRUS. WILL ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THERE IS THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST NEARING KGRI
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT CONSENSUS OF MOST
FORECAST MODELS IS TO KEEP NEARLY ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST
100-150 MILES OFF TO THE WEST AND THUS WILL OMIT ANY PRECIPITATION
MENTION AT THIS TIME. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...A STEADY AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLACKENING TO AROUND 10KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY
MID-MORNING FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO
AROUND 20KT WILL AGAIN PICK UP.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
129 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN A FEW SPOTS. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL EXIT ON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MID-SUMMER HEAT TO WESTERN NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF
CENTERED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH THIS TROF
FORECAST TO SLOWLY EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE FORECAST
DRAWING UPON PERSISTENCE...AND WEIGHING OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM
YESTERDAY OVER MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
NAM/RGEM/GFS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING...THOUGH THEY
LACK THE RESOLUTION TO FULLY RESOLVE THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES. THE HRRR FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO HOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPED YESTERDAY...PROVIDING THE MOST USEFUL FORECAST GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO BREEZES...AND ALSO ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING INTO THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MINIMAL INSTABILITY UP TO AROUND 500
J/KG...WHICH IS GENERALLY MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT...AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE OR EVEN
NEAR-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM`S. HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS OF AROUND 8000 FT THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DROP SOME SMALL HAIL. LAKE SHADOWING WILL LIKELY
KEEP LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF EACH OF THE LAKES DRY
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST OF BUFFALO METRO DRY TODAY.
WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORTH TOWNS SINCE THEY ARE CLOSER TO
THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE A TAD
WARMER TODAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TODAY.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUALLY EXIT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A FEW CLOUDS LEFT OVER THIS EVENING FROM ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...BUT THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT...AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE COOLER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE MID-50S NEAR THE LAKES AND IN THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
NATION`S MIDSECTION. WHILE THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION IN THE PATTERN
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
THERE WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF FEATURES FOR OUR AREA TO CONTEND
WITH BEFOREHAND.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL COME ON FRIDAY...WHEN A MODERATELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CORRESPONDING 110-120 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT
TO LIFT A STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL RIDGING/DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MUCH WEAKER OVERALL LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD DIE DOWN RATHER QUICKLY IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING MECHANISMS. FOLLOWING THIS...THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING...THOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES.
AFTER THAT...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIPPLE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEADING FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE WORKING INTO OUR REGION...THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIANCE IN THE TIMING
AND POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...THE FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY NAM/ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL
TEND TO FOCUS CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/GENESEE
VALLEY EASTWARD...WHILE THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
GFS WOULD LARGELY KEEP ANY CONVECTION CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES...
FOR NOW FEEL IT PRUDENT TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR
BOTH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT WITH A TIMING AND
POSITIONING TILTED A BIT CLOSER TO THE FASTER NAM/ECMWF/GEM
CONSENSUS.
TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REFLECT THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE THE AXIS OF THE CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE RESULTING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A STEADY
WARMING AND MUGGIFYING TREND...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +12C TO +16C
ON SUNDAY CLIMBING TO THE +16C TO +18C RANGE ON MONDAY. SUCH
WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON SUNDAY AND THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY...WITH A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS POSSIBLY CRACKING THE 90
DEGREE MARK MONDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE MID 60S...THIS WILL MAKE FOR ESPECIALLY UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POPPING UP ACROSS OUR WARMER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON... THOUGH FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DRY FORECAST WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AFTER THAT...THE LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO FEATURE A
TRANSITION BACK TO A COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE REGIME AS A PACIFIC
LOW BARRELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND INTO
CANADA...TAKING UP STATION IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PRECEDED
BY A LEADING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHILE
SOME LESSER DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THE TWO GUIDANCE PACKAGES
HAVE BOTH CONTINUED TO SLOW THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH NOW
LOOKS AS IF IT COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT FAR WESTERN SECTIONS LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY OOZING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BACKED OFF A BIT ON POPS FOR
TUESDAY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY ASSOCIATED CHANCE POPS NOW INDICATED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO SERVE AS THE
FOCUS. SOME STRONGER SHOWERS MAY BUILD INTO THUNDERSTORMS...FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. BUF/ART WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHADOWED BY THE
LAKES...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...WHILE ROC/IAG/JHW WILL ALL HAVE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHILE
CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR/MVFR...EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY TO BE VFR.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY TOWARD MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
TO MODEST WINDS AND LIMITED WAVE ACTION CONTINUING. LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/TMA
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND SLIP SOUTHEAST TO
THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LARGE CUTOFF TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE CUTOFF TROUGH IS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS SHORT
WAVE DEPARTS...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD OVER OUR AREA...BRINGING A MUCH WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKS END AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY WE`RE SEEING SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CU DEVELOPING IN
A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOWS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR 6-10K FT DEEP CU TO DEVELOP AROUND H8...BEFORE
REACHING THE CAPPING INVERSION AROUND H6. THIS INVERSION WEAKENS
UPSTREAM CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...AND WE`RE BEGINNING
TO SEE DEEPER CU AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST N/NW OF THE
TRIAD. THUS CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED.
FOR TONIGHT...DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING INVERSION FURTHER
WEAKENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT AND ACROSS OUR NW AREAS AS
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS VA MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH AS THEY
DRIFTS SOUTH WHILE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE SFC RIDGE STILL CENTERED TO OUR NORTHWEST...
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR
MOISTURE PROFILE AS TODAY...BUT WARMING BETWEEN H5-H7 WILL CAP
DEVELOPING DAYTIME CU. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS UNDER
THIS RIDGE AND GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 60 AS
THE SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND WITH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST. EXPECT VERY SHALLOW DAYTIME
CU AND VERY WARM TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
ON SUNDAY WE`LL SEE AN ELONGATED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER NE
TX AND LA GRADUALLY DRIFTING NE ALONG THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS OUR
AREA...BUT DRY AND WARM MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PRECLUDE PRECIP. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...SO WE`LL SEE
HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM...
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HEIGHTS
IS NOTED ACROSS TX AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LOW
THAT MARGINALLY CLOSES OFF. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME AND
THE TX/GULF LOW OPENS AND LIFTS NORTH AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. EVENTUALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WHICH REACHES THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY AND THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER FEATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF UPPER LOW AND THE TIMING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON DAYS 6/7 ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DECREASES WED
AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
WEST WHERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT AND GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. WILL CAP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES. BUT WITH PW
VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND AT LEAST SOME
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY HIGHER. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY REDUCING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDINESS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE CONTRACTS FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND WITH HIGHS
NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM THURSDAY...
MODIFIED OBSERVATION AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CU AROUND 5-6K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW. NOTED THAT THE HRRR INDICATED A
FEW VERY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES THE NEED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT... THEN BECOMING NW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.
LOOKING AHEAD: RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE
WARMING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...NP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND SLIP SOUTHEAST TO
THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 935 AM THURSDAY...
THIN CLOUD COVERAGE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB A BIT MORE QUICKLY
AND WILL ADJUST THE TREND ACCORDINGLY. RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INDICATE POTENTIAL HIGHS A BIT ABOVE ONGOING FORECAST AS WELL AND
WILL NUDGE UP A BIT TO REACH SOME LOWER 80S. EXPECT MORNING
CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK
SURFACE TROF AND THE VORT MAXIMA ROUNDING THE UPPER TROF LATE DAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE WEST THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD.
THROUGH TONIGHT: 00Z/7TH UPPER AIR DATA AND WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A
MID-UPPER SHEAR AXIS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING; AND THIS LOW SHEAR AXIS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FINAL S/W TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. UNLIKE WED
MORNING AT THIS TIME WHEN AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN HAD BLOSSOMED OVER
THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT...ONLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PRECEDING
IMPULSES/SHEAR VORTICITY CENTERS -- THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IN -- ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND IMAGERY AND
NWP ANALYSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER EASTERN GREAT LAKES S/W
TROUGH. FURTHERMORE...PRONOUNCED LOW-MID LEVEL VEERING AND IMPLIED
WARM ADVECTION FORCING FOR ASCENT SAMPLED BY THE 12Z/6TH KGSO RAOB
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A MUCH MORE WEAKER WAA REGIME FROM THE SC
UPSTATE INTO CENTRAL NC...BASED UPON VWP DATA IN THE 925-700 MB
LAYER FROM KGSP TO KCLT TO KRAX THIS MORNING. THIS WAA REGIME LINES
UP REASONABLY WELL WITH WHERE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL
DATA DEPICT SCT TO BKN 5-12 THOUSAND FT CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING...WHILE LOWER CLOUD BASES TO THE WEST ARE LIKELY A FUNCTION
OF LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY 925 MB UPSLOPE FLOW.
NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ALREADY WEAK AND SPATIALLY LIMITED WAA
REGIME WILL DIMINISH TODAY...PARTICULARLY BY 15-18Z. SO SKY COVER
SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ON AVERAGE AND ACCORDINGLY HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO TO UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S GIVEN EXPECTED DRY ADIABATIC THERMAL PROFILES
THROUGH AROUND H85. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED...WITH JUST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF RALEIGH...WHERE ALBEIT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA MAY INTERACT WITH THE WEAKENING WAA REGIME EARLY
TODAY...AND ALSO WHERE THE FORCING FROM THE STRONGER S/W TROUGH HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO OVERLAP IN TIME WITH THE END OF PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INDEED...THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
AND THE PARENT NAM/WRF SUGGEST SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER VA THIS
AFTERNOON MAY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT LATE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE DISSIPATING. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FINAL EASTERN GREAT LAKES S/W TROUGH SHOULD
PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED COOL WITH THE
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE STILL SUPPRESSED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY: 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
FRI...AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FINALLY-DEPARTING
MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
WARMING...CHARACTERIZED BY LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 10-15 METERS
HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPECTED THU...SUGGEST HIGHS OF 82 TO 87 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKEWISE REACH THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.
THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA WHILE RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN DIURNAL AND LESS THAN TEN PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY...86 TO 91 SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES 55 TO
60 FRIDAY NIGHT... MOSTLY MID 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM...
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HEIGHTS
IS NOTED ACROSS TX AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LOW
THAT MARGINALLY CLOSES OFF. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME AND
THE TX/GULF LOW OPENS AND LIFTS NORTH AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. EVENTUALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WHICH REACHES THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY AND THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER FEATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF UPPER LOW AND THE TIMING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON DAYS 6/7 ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN DECREASES WED
AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
WEST WHERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT AND GREATER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. WILL CAP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES. BUT WITH PW
VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND AT LEAST SOME
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY HIGHER. EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY REDUCING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDINESS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE CONTRACTS FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND WITH HIGHS
NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM THURSDAY...
MODIFIED OBSERVATION AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CU AROUND 5-6K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW. NOTED THAT THE HRRR INDICATED A
FEW VERY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES THE NEED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT... THEN BECOMING NW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.
LOOKING AHEAD: RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE
WARMING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...NP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
135 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND SLIP SOUTHEAST TO
THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 935 AM THURSDAY...
THIN CLOUD COVERAGE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB A BIT MORE QUICKLY
AND WILL ADJUST THE TREND ACCORDINGLY. RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INDICATE POTENTIAL HIGHS A BIT ABOVE ONGOING FORECAST AS WELL AND
WILL NUDGE UP A BIT TO REACH SOME LOWER 80S. EXPECT MORNING
CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK
SURFACE TROF AND THE VORT MAXIMA ROUNDING THE UPPER TROF LATE DAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE WEST THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD.
THROUGH TONIGHT: 00Z/7TH UPPER AIR DATA AND WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A
MID-UPPER SHEAR AXIS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING; AND THIS LOW SHEAR AXIS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FINAL S/W TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. UNLIKE WED
MORNING AT THIS TIME WHEN AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN HAD BLOSSOMED OVER
THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT...ONLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PRECEDING
IMPULSES/SHEAR VORTICITY CENTERS -- THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IN -- ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND IMAGERY AND
NWP ANALYSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER EASTERN GREAT LAKES S/W
TROUGH. FURTHERMORE...PRONOUNCED LOW-MID LEVEL VEERING AND IMPLIED
WARM ADVECTION FORCING FOR ASCENT SAMPLED BY THE 12Z/6TH KGSO RAOB
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A MUCH MORE WEAKER WAA REGIME FROM THE SC
UPSTATE INTO CENTRAL NC...BASED UPON VWP DATA IN THE 925-700 MB
LAYER FROM KGSP TO KCLT TO KRAX THIS MORNING. THIS WAA REGIME LINES
UP REASONABLY WELL WITH WHERE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL
DATA DEPICT SCT TO BKN 5-12 THOUSAND FT CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING...WHILE LOWER CLOUD BASES TO THE WEST ARE LIKELY A FUNCTION
OF LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY 925 MB UPSLOPE FLOW.
NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ALREADY WEAK AND SPATIALLY LIMITED WAA
REGIME WILL DIMINISH TODAY...PARTICULARLY BY 15-18Z. SO SKY COVER
SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ON AVERAGE AND ACCORDINGLY HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO TO UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S GIVEN EXPECTED DRY ADIABATIC THERMAL PROFILES
THROUGH AROUND H85. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED...WITH JUST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF RALEIGH...WHERE ALBEIT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA MAY INTERACT WITH THE WEAKENING WAA REGIME EARLY
TODAY...AND ALSO WHERE THE FORCING FROM THE STRONGER S/W TROUGH HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO OVERLAP IN TIME WITH THE END OF PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INDEED...THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
AND THE PARENT NAM/WRF SUGGEST SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER VA THIS
AFTERNOON MAY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT LATE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE DISSIPATING. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FINAL EASTERN GREAT LAKES S/W TROUGH SHOULD
PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED COOL WITH THE
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE STILL SUPPRESSED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY: 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
FRI...AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FINALLY-DEPARTING
MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
WARMING...CHARACTERIZED BY LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 10-15 METERS
HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPECTED THU...SUGGEST HIGHS OF 82 TO 87 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKEWISE REACH THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.
THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA WHILE RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN DIURNAL AND LESS THAN TEN PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY...86 TO 91 SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES 55 TO
60 FRIDAY NIGHT... MOSTLY MID 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS
EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE HELP OF A
NORTHERN STREAM KICKER WAVE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING IN THE
ABOVE SITUATION SO FAR OUT IN TIME IS SUSPECT... BUT A ONE IN THREE
RAIN CHANCE IN THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS MORE THAN
REASONABLE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE PROSPECTS FOR
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY 86 TO 90... WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY TOO WARM... ESPECIALLY WEST. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM THURSDAY...
MODIFIED OBSERVATION AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CU AROUND 5-6K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW. NOTED THAT THE HRRR INDICATED A
FEW VERY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES THE NEED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT... THEN BECOMING NW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.
LOOKING AHEAD: RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE
WARMING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLM
AVIATION...NP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
355 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL CONTROL
THE REGIONS WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A CHANCE RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCT SHRA HAS POPPED UP AS EXPECTED IN NW OH AND OVER INTO ERN
OH...BRUSHING THE NRN AND ERN COUNTIES OF THE FA. LATEST HRRR RUN
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THIS
RUN ALLOWS THE CONVECTION TO BUBBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
DYING DOWN BY 00Z. FOLLOWED THIS SCENARIO...KEEPING 20 POPS IN THE
APPROXIMATELY THE NE 1/2 OF THE FA UNTIL 6PM...THEN RAMPED DOWN
QUICKLY TO 0 POP.
EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AS THEY DID
LAST EVENING. THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE VERIFIED THE BEST LAST
NIGHT...SO LEANED TOWARDS IT AGAIN FOR TONIGHTS LOWS. GENERALLY
WENT BETWEEN 50 AND 55.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. FLOW AT H5 STILL REMAINS NWLY...BUT IT WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY AS RIDGING WORKS E THROUGH THE DEEP S.
EXPECT A FEW CU TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT IT
HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
IT WILL STILL WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY...PUSHING INTO THE LOWER
80S. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 50S FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOCUS OF FCST REMAINS TIMING OF RAIN FOR MONDAY AND HOW WARM TEMPS
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY. QUESTION OF 90 DEGREE MARK FOR
SUNDAY. WILL BE NEAR OR AT THE MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE NORMAL
BUT CERTAINLY NOT UNCOMMON FOR JUNE.
BIG QUESTION IS SURGE OF MOISTURE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN TO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTH. AGAIN
AS IN MOST CASES TIMING IS PROBLEMATIC BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS.
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WILL GO WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT COULD BE
RAISED DEPENDING MODEL OUTCOME CLOSER TO FCST PERIOD. MODELS ARE
MORE IN AGREEMENT OF PUSHING MOISTURE EAST WITH COLD FRONT BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS GIVES STRONG INDICATION FOR GOING DRY
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMP FCST TRICKY FOR MONDAY DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. WILL SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER AND COOLER
SCENARIOS FOR NOW. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND PERHAPS NOT COOL ENOUGH
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE COLUMBUS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO PAST FEW NIGHTS EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG AROUND KLUK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. SOME CUMULUS WILL START TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL REACH
THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWING SOME
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING IN NW OH THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADDED A 20
POP TO THAT AREA. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A SMALL MENTION IN FAR
NE OH AND NW PA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS.
ORIGINAL...EVENING SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING INTO
NORTHERN OHIO AND SKIES ARE CLEAR IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THESE CLOUDS TOO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE WITH A TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER ACROSS THE AREA THAN YESTERDAY.
GIVEN THIS UPPER TROF HOWEVER...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DECK WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS.
WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NWRN PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT FAIR SKIES AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BUT PASSAGE WILL BE SUBTLE AS THERMAL
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. STILL CONCERNED
THAT ANY COMPLEX DEVELOPING ON THE GRADIENT TO OUR NORTHWEST WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO OR
NORTHWEST PA. STARTED PRECIP CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT FAR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUED SATURDAY. RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
NWRN PA SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS BASED ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS.
THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND WOULD SUPPORT A LOWER POP. WILL WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS
FOR FINE TUNING. TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD REACHING 80S FOR HIGH MOST PLACES (EXCEPT NWRN PA) SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE SURFACE AND
AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY...WE CAN
EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP TO WARM AIR TEMPERATURES
BACK TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE WARM UP WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STRONG STREAM OF
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. TIMING OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. GOOD NEWS IS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
NOT THAT COOL BUT WE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF DAYBREAK MVFR FOG THAT
COULD OCCUR AT THE MORE PRONE TAF SITES SUCH AS CAK. AFTERNOON CU
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET LEAVING ONLY A FEW PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT. SOME SCT CU WILL PROBABLY REDEVELOP BY NOON ON
FRI WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUE WHEN SCT
TSRA WILL PRODUCE LOCAL NON VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING TO HOIST ANY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
220 PM PDT Thu Jun 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Another low pressure system will impact the Inland Northwest
through Saturday. This will lead to unsettled, showery and
occasionally wet periods through Saturday night. Sunday will be a
marginally drier day in Washington...with wet conditions
persisting in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures will be well below
normal. Temperatures will temporarily warm to seasonal levels for
the beginning of the work week...but unsettled weather will likely
return by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...Some changes in how the wet frontal zone approaches and
exits are hinted at in some of recent short term models for
tonight. The 17Z HRRR Composite reflectivity progs depict a split
in the wet precipitation shield as it reaches the Spokane area but
hints at some convection developing along the leading edge of
northern edge of the split which builds northward and back-builds
to the west. This chance in the scenario may just be too complex
to come up with chronologic sequence of pops to mimic it so may
just likely keep what is currently depicted in the grids for
tonight which includes minor thunderstorm mention as well.
Forecast temps remain low for this time of year given the general
low pressure trof has not left the region. /Pelatti
Friday through Sunday...A synoptic repeat of the last two days
appears to be shaping up for the next two days as satellite
imagery indicates another upper low circulation just off the
Pacific Coast getting ready to take up residence over the region.
All of the latest synoptic models are in general agreement and
quite plausible against satellite extrapolation in slowly dragging
the upper low into the forecast area on Friday....drifting it
through on a slow transit west to east and finally into Montana on
Sunday. There are significant sub-synoptic differences between
models regarding wrap-around moisture axes and instability
parameters...but overall all models indicate widespread showery
precipitation for just about all of the forecast area through
Saturday...and then a drying trend from west to east on
Sunday...with all models maintaining a strong likelihood of
lingering showers through Sunday over the Idaho Panhandle as
trailing moisture upslopes into the Bitterroots.
Two main differences exist between this system and the one that
dumped mountain snow and heavy rain on the area yesterday.
First...the snow levels will be somewhat higher. Mountain snow is
a near certainty again with this system...but it will only
accumulate on the higher peaks. Second...while the moisture feed
into this system is quite moist and adequate for significant rain
fall...the moisture tap will be off the Pacific and any wrap
around will have to circumnavigate the entire low and thus be
attenuated somewhat before being residually squeezed out by
Saturday and Sunday. Yesterday`s upper low wrap around was
partially fueled by Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico basin semi-tropical
moisture...which contributed to the anomalously high rain fall
amounts over much of the northeast forecast area. Thus...while
showers will be common over the next 2 days...and there will
likely be periods of downright steady stratiform sustained rain...
the overall amounts should be less impressive and have less impact
on area rivers and streams than the last system. Temperatures
through out this period will continue to underachieve climatology.
/Fugazzi
Sunday night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will start the
week out with a brief dry period between systems. The region will be
under an upper level ridge with one low pressure system moving into
the Canadian Prairies and another spinning in the Gulf of Alaska.
While the core of the upper low remains off the northern British
Columbia coast, a line of weak impulses will roll through the region
on moist northwest flow. The first frontal system will affect the
region Monday night into Tuesday. This system is rather weak so just
some breezy conditions and scattered showers is expected with the
cold front. Another weak impulse is expected Wednesday with another
cold frontal passage Wednesday night. This one could bring a bit
more in the way of gusty winds. A few thunderstorms could develop
along the front, but confidence is low at this time. The prevailing
wind direction will be westerly with showers more focused on the
higher terrain surrounding the Columbia Basin. This line of storms
will have a pretty good tap into a deep Pacific moisture plume so
the possibility of significant rainfall with either of the frontal
systems cannot be discounted. The better chance of locally heavy
rain will be with the stronger mid-week cold front, particularly if
thunderstorms develop along the front. Temperatures will warm close
to seasonal normals Monday with the building ridge, and may continue
into Tuesday before a cooling trend takes over with the shift to
northwest flow. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front running from KSEA to KDLS at 18Z will move
to KCQV to KLWS by 00Z and then pass into Montana overnight. Ahead
of and along the front widespread -RA is expected with mainly low
VFR ceilings but brief periods of MVFR Ceilings also possible
especially at the KGEG/KCOE and KPUW TAF sites. After the FROPA
the air mass will destabilize aloft leading to a small potential
for TSRA in the late afternoon in the west...and overnight over the
northeast. The chance of a thunderstorm passing through any
particular TAF site is small...so the thunder wording has been
left out of the TAFs. By 12Z a new upper level low will be moving
into the area with no organized fronts but a general decrease in
stability leading to a threat of random showers over the entire
region after 18Z Friday. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 59 40 55 42 64 / 80 50 50 60 50 20
Coeur d`Alene 44 60 40 52 43 58 / 80 50 50 60 60 30
Pullman 43 56 38 51 41 61 / 70 40 50 60 60 30
Lewiston 45 60 43 60 46 69 / 60 40 40 60 50 30
Colville 45 61 41 58 44 69 / 70 50 60 60 50 30
Sandpoint 45 60 39 52 43 57 / 80 60 70 70 60 60
Kellogg 43 57 40 47 42 53 / 80 70 70 80 70 70
Moses Lake 45 64 45 63 46 74 / 50 30 40 20 10 10
Wenatchee 46 62 46 59 45 72 / 30 50 40 20 10 10
Omak 45 61 45 63 44 76 / 60 60 50 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
AT 3 AM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
FERGUS FALLS MINNESOTA SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO FORT DODGE IOWA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED A 53 MPH WIND GUST AT HANLEY FALLS
MINNESOTA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH 900-800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BOTH THE
MESO AND BROADER SCALE MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
CONVECTION AND THEY SHOW THAT BOTH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER AREA SHOWERS WAS DETECTED BY RADAR FURTHER EAST FROM BIG
FORK MINNESOTA EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE TWIN CITIES. THERE HAS BEEN
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION REPORTED WITH THIS SCATTERED BAND OF
CONVECTION. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE 800-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THE RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE WEAKENING THIS MORNING. DUE TO THIS...KEPT
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. FURTHER
EAST...THERE IS ONE MORE AREA OF SHOWERS BETWEEN RICE LAKE AND
MONDOVI WISCONSIN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 700-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE FORCING QUICKLY WANES BY 07.12Z.
FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT THE 500 MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MUCH OF THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WISCONSIN. BOTH THE NAM/WRF AND GFS RAISE
THE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER WITH THE FLOW COMING OFF
THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF IOWA AND MISSOURI...THESE
DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH. THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE THEIR DEW
POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AT MOST. THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE
REALISTIC. AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE AND ML CAPES ARE ALSO TOO
HIGH. AS A RESULT...PREFER THE MUCH FURTHER NORTH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAT THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW. IF THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN
TO DEVELOP...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THEM TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ON SATURDAY...THE DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK TOO HIGH...SO USED
THE GFE MIX DOWN TOOL TO LOWER THEM DOWN TO AROUND 60. THIS MAY BE
EVEN STILL A BIT TOO HIGH. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP OUR
HEAT INDICES PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
THE 07.00Z MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. WHILE ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
EVENING. THEY DIFFER ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM DO NOT HAVE THIS FRONT MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEY ARE ALSO MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH
THEIR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS LESS
PRECIPITATION AND IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT.
CONSIDERING THE SPEED OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
ECMWF SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IT
APPEARS THAT GFS IS ONCE AGAIN TOO HIGH WITH ITS DEW POINTS...SO
WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF ON THAT TOO. WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS...THE ML CAPES STAY UNDER UNDER 1000 J/KG...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10
KFT RIDING PERIPHERY OF THE PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE AFTERNOON CU FIELD BEGINNING TO POP UP ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PLUME OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. MEAN FLOW VECTORS WOULD PUSH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...AND COULD BRING MVFR CEILNGS...BUT WITH DRIER
AIR IN PLACE ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION IMPACTING TERMINALS SO HAVE LEFT
OUT OF TAFS. FOR FRIDAY...STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD
DAYTIME MIXING UP TO 850 MB WILL LEAD TO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
GUSTS AT KRST TO AROUND 20 KTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
350 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....ZT