Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/06/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1040 AM PDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM FRESNO
COUNTY NORTH. IT WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AND
WINDY ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMUP FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST PERIODS OF STRONG
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AFTER 128Z /1100 PDT/ TUESDAY...SO
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS LOOKS ON TRACK.
LATEST SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS A GENERAL RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KINGS/KERN COUNTY LINE. NAM-12 AND
RUC CONVECTIVE POTENTIALS SHOW AREAS OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY /1700 PDT THIS AFTERNOON/. THE 15Z RUC HAS THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN MADERA COUNTY AROUND 22Z /1500 PDT/ TODAY
WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES OF 400 JOULES/KG AND SURFACE-COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES OF -2. THE 12Z NAM-12 HAS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER THE JUNCTION OF FRESNO/MONO/TULARE COUNTIES AT
21Z TODAY WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES OF 800 JOULES/KG AND SURFACE-
COMPUTED LIFTED INDICES OF -2. THE 12Z NAM-20...WHICH USUALLY DOES A
GOOD JOB WITH PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...
BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO MARIPOSA COUNTY AND YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON...AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION NORTH OF KINGS CANYON
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
VALLEY-FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06-15Z
TUESDAY.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE NAM-12 HAS AND 850-MB TEMPERATURE
FOR TUOLUMNE MEADOWS OF 0 C AT 12Z TUESDAY...AND A 700-MB TEMPERATURE
OF -10 C. GIVEN THAT THE 850-MB LEVEL IS BELOW GROUND FOR THE MEADOWS
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOW. RFC GUIDANCE
TAPERS QPF OFF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT COULD IMPACT TIOGA PASS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM PDT MON JUN 4 2012/
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THRU 130W THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THRU CENTRAL
CA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE UPPER TROF WILL
TAKE ON A NEG TILT AS THE PARENT LOW IN THE GLFAK PUSHES SE TOWARD
THE PAC NW COAST. IMPRESSIVE PVA AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF FRESNO
COUNTY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF ABOUT 5PM.
A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE KERN MTNS/DESERTS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY IN
THE SJV LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. IT COULD HOWEVER KICK UP THE
DUST...WITH DECREASING AIR QUALITY LATE TODAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
END IN THE VALLEY THIS EVE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE SRN SIERRA FROM SEQUOIA PARK NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROF TUES...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
MAX TEMPS WILL BE SOME 15-20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDS ARE
ALSO LIKELY AGAIN TUES AFTERNOON IN COLD ADVECTION PATTERN.
HEIGHTS BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASE BEYOND TUES...BUT A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO
THE E OF CA. TEMPS WILL WARM ACCORDINGLY AND SHOULD BE BACK TO
AT LEAST AVERAGE VALUES FOR THURS AND FRI. ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL
UPPER LOW IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW FRI. WHILE NO PRECIP
IS FCST FOR CENTRAL CA...AN INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER TEMPS AGAIN BELOW NORMAL SAT AND SUN WITH INCREASING MTN AND
DESERT WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AND
BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY IN ADDITION TO THE SIERRA
CREST UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
UNTIL 06Z TUESDAY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD AND IN THE SIERRA FROM YOSEMITE N.P.
TO KINGS CANYON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS /CAZ095-098-099/.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...PJ
PREV DISCUSSION...BINGHAM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT MON JUN 4 2012
.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES FOR TODAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND GIVEN THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOVE
AROUND KALS THROUGH 01-03Z THIS EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AT KALS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY AT KCOS AND KPUB WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. MODELS
INDICATING THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS A KCOS AND
KPUB WILL BE FROM AROUND 21-02Z THIS AFTERNOON. IMPACTS INCLUDE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CIGS
AND VIS MAY ALSO LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM CORES THAT MOVE
OVER THE TERMINALS. EXPECT CLEARING AND VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DEVELOPING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW BY MID DAY WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT
KCOS AND KPUB. MOZLEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM MDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
..MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND UTAH THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING AS
A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST
COAST AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH SATELLITE AND EVEN RADAR IMAGERY TRACKING A DISTINCT
CIRCULATION (MCV) WHICH HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY AND
INTO CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDERNEATH
RIDGE EVIDENT WITH HIGHER MTN OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG WITH MORE VARIABLE
READINGS FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT DEW PTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE IN THE
20S AND 30S AND MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...WITH
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MTS...OWNING TO ENHANCED
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOLAR HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH
LATEST MODELS DIFFERING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTNS AND PLAINS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NSSL
AND LOCAL WRFS HAVE CONVECTION TIED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THEN HELPING TO
FIRE CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM AND THE 06Z HRRR HAVE CONVECTION
FIRING BETWEEN 15Z-18Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS...AND THEN DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME CONVECTION HANGING ON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN TX AND OK PANHANDLE. WITH THAT SAID AND
THE MCV CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HAVE TAILORED
CURRENT FORECAST CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH BASED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ARE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HIGHS DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS NEAR AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
MILD SIDE ONCE AGAIN. -MW
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WHILE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASES. APPEARS WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH STORMS
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INITIALLY...THEN DRIFTING EAST ON TO THE
PLAINS BY EVENING. SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS LOW...THOUGH A FEW NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AS KCOS GUSTED TO 47 KNOTS IN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT
YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS TUES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COOL SLIGHTLY OVER
THE EAST AS 700 MB TEMPS FALL 1-2C...WHILE READINGS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT.
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY APPROACH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DEEP MIXING TAPS STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...THOUGH SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO STAY JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
HIGHLIGHT THRESHOLDS. OVER THE PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE EAST OF I-25...WITH RISK OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TSRA
CONTINUING INTO WED EVENING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY WED
MOST LOCATIONS...AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THU INTO FRI...WITH AREA
REMAINING UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW BOTH DAYS. VERY
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOISTURE
LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS DRYLINE STAYS MAINLY ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE KS BORDER. TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA
BOTH DAYS OVER THE PLAINS...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE EAST OF
I-25. UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE...WHICH MAY FINALLY FLUSH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BOTH SAT/SUN. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE SAT INTO
SUN AS UPPER JET ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM...BEFORE COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS AREA-WIDE
BY MON AFTERNOON. --10
AVIATION...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE STATE WILL WILL FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. -TSRA SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE MORNING AND DRIFT OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS AND VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE TERMINALS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. -MW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
88/34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
451 AM MDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
...MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND UTAH THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING AS
A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST
COAST AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH SATELLITE AND EVEN RADAR IMAGERY TRACKING A DISTINCT
CIRCULATION (MCV) WHICH HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY AND
INTO CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDERNEATH
RIDGE EVIDENT WITH HIGHER MTN OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG WITH MORE VARIABLE
READINGS FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT DEW PTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE IN THE
20S AND 30S AND MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...WITH
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MTS...OWNING TO ENHANCED
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOLAR HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH
LATEST MODELS DIFFERING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTNS AND PLAINS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NSSL
AND LOCAL WRFS HAVE CONVECTION TIED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THEN HELPING TO
FIRE CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM AND THE 06Z HRRR HAVE CONVECTION
FIRING BETWEEN 15Z-18Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS...AND THEN DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME CONVECTION HANGING ON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN TX AND OK PANHANDLE. WITH THAT SAID AND
THE MCV CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HAVE TAILORED
CURRENT FORECAST CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH BASED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ARE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HIGHS DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS NEAR AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
MILD SIDE ONCE AGAIN. -MW
.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WHILE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASES. APPEARS WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH STORMS
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INITIALLY...THEN DRIFTING EAST ON TO THE
PLAINS BY EVENING. SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS LOW...THOUGH A FEW NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AS KCOS GUSTED TO 47 KNOTS IN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT
YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS TUES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COOL SLIGHTLY OVER
THE EAST AS 700 MB TEMPS FALL 1-2C...WHILE READINGS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT.
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY APPROACH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DEEP MIXING TAPS STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...THOUGH SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO STAY JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
HIGHLIGHT THRESHOLDS. OVER THE PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE EAST OF I-25...WITH RISK OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TSRA
CONTINUING INTO WED EVENING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY WED
MOST LOCATIONS...AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THU INTO FRI...WITH AREA
REMAINING UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW BOTH DAYS. VERY
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOISTURE
LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS DRYLINE STAYS MAINLY ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE KS BORDER. TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA
BOTH DAYS OVER THE PLAINS...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE EAST OF
I-25. UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE...WHICH MAY FINALLY FLUSH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BOTH SAT/SUN. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE SAT INTO
SUN AS UPPER JET ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM...BEFORE COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS AREA-WIDE
BY MON AFTERNOON. --PETERSEN
&&
.AVIATION...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE STATE WILL WILL FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. -TSRA SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE MORNING AND DRIFT OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS AND VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE TERMINALS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. -MW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
204 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/
.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM...AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA WITH SOME BREAKING UP OF CLOUDS
TRAILING THE PRECIP IN THE NORTH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
AND KEPT HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER 18Z AS HRRR AND NAM BOTH
POINT AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPS HAVE
TRENDED DECENTLY COOLER DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SO HAVE
BUMPED MAX TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 4 DEGREES. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE ON TRACK ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA BUT THEY ARE CREEPING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. THUNDER IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF WHICH IS RIGHT IN
LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR MODEL SAID WAS GOING TO HAPPEN. ONCE THIS
LINE GETS SOUTH OF I20 SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1600 J/KG AND LIS IN THE -3
TO -6 RANGE. SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA AS THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE STATE. THIS
MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITIES
PEAKING BETWEEN 18Z-00Z AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND JUST INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNLIKE THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM DESPITE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM12 AND ECMWF
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING POPS BACK INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT FEEL WITH SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH PRIOR TO THE
LONG TERM...THE NORTHERN HALF SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT AND FAVOR THE
GFS THIS CYCLE. REGARDLESS...ALL MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING FOR VERY
LOW END POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOES BUILD
INTO THE AREA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING TREND IN
EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS.
DEESE
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... IFR TO MVFR CIGS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SITES
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS NEAR 4KFT BY 01Z THIS EVENING. SOME
LINGERING -SHRA IS POSSIBLE FOR KMCN AND KCSG UNTIL AROUND 20Z
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED -TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH FROM
22-01Z WITH CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL... HOWEVER THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT NEAR
06-12Z SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP. WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER
10KTS MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR
CATEGORY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND PRECIP.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELSE.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 80 66 80 63 / 60 40 40 10
ATLANTA 80 68 82 65 / 50 40 30 10
BLAIRSVILLE 77 59 74 55 / 80 50 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 78 67 83 62 / 80 50 30 10
COLUMBUS 85 71 88 69 / 80 40 30 20
GAINESVILLE 80 66 78 62 / 80 50 30 10
MACON 83 71 87 67 / 80 40 50 30
ROME 81 65 82 60 / 80 50 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 80 68 85 63 / 80 40 30 10
VIDALIA 85 73 89 69 / 80 40 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DODGE...EMANUEL...JOHNSON...LAURENS...
MONTGOMERY...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...WHEELER...WILCOX.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03/01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1059 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME BREAKING UP OF CLOUDS TRAILING THE PRECIP
IN THE NORTH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND KEPT HIGH END
CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER 18Z AS HRRR AND NAM BOTH POINT AT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPS HAVE TRENDED DECENTLY
COOLER DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SO HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS DOWN
ABOUT 4 DEGREES. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA BUT THEY ARE CREEPING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. THUNDER IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF WHICH IS RIGHT IN
LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR MODEL SAID WAS GOING TO HAPPEN. ONCE THIS
LINE GETS SOUTH OF I20 SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1600 J/KG AND LIS IN THE -3
TO -6 RANGE. SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA AS THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE STATE. THIS
MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITIES
PEAKING BETWEEN 18Z-00Z AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND JUST INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNLIKE THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM DESPITE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM12 AND ECMWF DURING
THIS PERIOD ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING POPS BACK INTO NORTH
GEORGIA BUT FEEL WITH SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH PRIOR TO THE LONG
TERM...THE NORTHERN HALF SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT AND FAVOR THE GFS THIS
CYCLE. REGARDLESS...ALL MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING FOR VERY LOW END
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOES BUILD INTO THE
AREA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING TREND IN EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
DEESE
FIRE WEATHER...TOUGH CALL TODAY AS FUEL MOISTURE IS LOW OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EXPECTING 15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. QUESTIONABLE HOWEVER WRT POP TIMING AND IF IT WILL RAIN
PRIOR TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. PLAYING IT SAFE THIS GO AROUND
AND HAVE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN PLACE.
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT IN AND
AROUND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SPLIT AND
IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY MISS THE ATL AREA. IF IT DOES HIT THE ATL
AREA AIRPORTS IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF. THE THUNDERSTORMS IN AL ALSO
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MOVE SOUTH O ATL AS WELL. WINDS WILL STAY OUT
OF THE W TO NW IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. EXPECTING GUST TO 18KT
BETWEEN 17Z-23Z. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. CEILINGS SHOULD DO THE SAME AS WELL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 80 65 86 62 / 60 40 20 20
ATLANTA 80 67 84 64 / 50 40 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 77 59 80 55 / 80 40 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 78 63 85 57 / 80 50 20 10
COLUMBUS 85 69 90 68 / 80 40 40 20
GAINESVILLE 80 65 82 62 / 80 50 20 20
MACON 83 67 90 66 / 80 40 40 20
ROME 81 65 85 59 / 80 50 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 80 64 84 61 / 80 40 30 20
VIDALIA 85 71 88 69 / 80 40 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03/01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
751 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA BUT THEY ARE CREEPING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. THUNDER IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF WHICH IS RIGHT IN
LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR MODEL SAID WAS GOING TO HAPPEN. ONCE THIS
LINE GETS SOUTH OF I20 SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1600 J/KG AND LIS IN THE -3
TO -6 RANGE. SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA AS THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE STATE. THIS
MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITIES
PEAKING BETWEEN 18Z-00Z AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND JUST INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNLIKE THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM DESPITE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM12 AND ECMWF DURING
THIS PERIOD ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING POPS BACK INTO NORTH
GEORGIA BUT FEEL WITH SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH PRIOR TO THE LONG
TERM...THE NORTHERN HALF SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT AND FAVOR THE GFS THIS
CYCLE. REGARDLESS...ALL MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING FOR VERY LOW END
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOES BUILD INTO THE
AREA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING TREND IN EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
DEESE
FIRE WEATHER...TOUGH CALL TODAY AS FUEL MOISTURE IS LOW OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EXPECTING 15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. QUESTIONABLE HOWEVER WRT POP TIMING AND IF IT WILL RAIN
PRIOR TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. PLAYING IT SAFE THIS GO AROUND
AND HAVE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT IN AND
AROUND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SPLIT AND
IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY MISS THE ATL AREA. IF IT DOES HIT THE ATL
AREA AIRPORTS IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF. THE THUNDERSTORMS IN AL ALSO
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MOVE SOUTH O ATL AS WELL. WINDS WILL STAY OUT
OF THE W TO NW IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. EXPECTING GUST TO 18KT
BETWEEN 17Z-23Z. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. CEILINGS SHOULD DO THE SAME AS WELL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 84 65 86 62 / 60 40 20 20
ATLANTA 84 67 84 64 / 60 40 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 81 59 80 55 / 80 40 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 82 63 85 57 / 80 50 20 10
COLUMBUS 89 69 90 68 / 60 40 40 20
GAINESVILLE 84 65 82 62 / 80 50 20 20
MACON 87 67 90 66 / 60 40 40 20
ROME 85 65 85 59 / 80 50 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 84 64 84 61 / 60 40 30 20
VIDALIA 89 71 88 69 / 70 40 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
353 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA BUT THEY ARE CREEPING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. THUNDER IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF WHICH IS RIGHT IN
LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR MODEL SAID WAS GOING TO HAPPEN. ONCE THIS
LINE GETS SOUTH OF I20 SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1600 J/KG AND LIS IN THE -3
TO -6 RANGE. SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA AS THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE STATE. THIS
MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITIES
PEAKING BETWEEN 18Z-00Z AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND JUST INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNLIKE THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM DESPITE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM12 AND ECMWF DURING
THIS PERIOD ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING POPS BACK INTO NORTH
GEORGIA BUT FEEL WITH SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH PRIOR TO THE LONG
TERM...THE NORTHERN HALF SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT AND FAVOR THE GFS THIS
CYCLE. REGARDLESS...ALL MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING FOR VERY LOW END
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOES BUILD INTO THE
AREA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING TREND IN EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
DEESE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TOUGH CALL TODAY AS FUEL MOISTURE IS LOW OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EXPECTING 15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. QUESTIONABLE HOWEVER WRT POP TIMING AND IF IT WILL RAIN
PRIOR TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. PLAYING IT SAFE THIS GO AROUND
AND HAVE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES BUT THAT WILL CHANGE
SOON AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE AREA. MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA STILL
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BUT THE LINE IS SLOWLY CREEPING SOUTHWARD.
HAVE INTRODUCED TSRA INTO ATL AREA TAF BETWEEN 0408/0411. THUNDER
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THAT SO ONLY GOING WITH SHOWERS 12Z TO 17Z.
WITH DAY TIME HEATING SHOULD SEE TSRA ACTIVITY PICK BACK UP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE W TO NW IN THE
5-10KT RANGE. EXPECTING GUST TO 20KT BETWEEN 17Z-23Z. VSBYS SHOULD
STAY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSRA DEVELOPMENT. CEILINGS SHOULD DO
THE SAME AS WELL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 84 65 86 62 / 50 40 20 20
ATLANTA 84 67 84 64 / 40 40 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 81 59 80 55 / 70 40 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 82 63 85 57 / 70 50 20 10
COLUMBUS 89 69 90 68 / 40 40 40 20
GAINESVILLE 84 65 82 62 / 70 50 20 20
MACON 87 67 90 66 / 40 40 40 20
ROME 85 65 85 59 / 70 50 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 84 64 84 61 / 40 40 30 20
VIDALIA 89 71 88 69 / 50 40 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK TROF FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED
850MB DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS ILLINOIS. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW CONVECTION CONTINUING WITH THE
WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ILLINOIS. THE DAKOTAS WAVE WAS
TRYING TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK LOW NEAR KPPQ WITH AN INVERTED TROF
RUNNING BACK INTO CENTRAL IOWA. A LAKE INDUCED COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. A WEAK TROF
RAN FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE
IN THE 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY SOUTH WHILE 40S
AND 50S WERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE QUESTION IS WILL CONVECTION FIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THEN LINGER INTO THE EVENING. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWFA BUT TEMPERATURES THERE ARE WELL BELOW THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW WEAK CU DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. SO...UNLESS SOMETHING DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT
2.5 HRS ON SOME LOCALIZED SFC CONVERGENCE IT APPEARS THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY.
LATER TONIGHT THE DAKOTA SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY STEEP AND THERE IS NO
SFC CONVERGENCE TO HELP GET ANYTHING GOING. THUS OTHER THAN SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WELL.
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST PASSING CLOUDS FROM THE
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX. FCST MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ARE EITHER AT
OR JUST BELOW THE PROJECTED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA BY MID
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON. 08
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL FEEL A COOL NIGHT/BELOW
GUIDANCE IN STORE TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH...IF ENOUGH CLEARING
OCCURS UNDER CHANNELED VORT SHUTTLE ALOFT. SOME LOWS IN THE 40S
POSSIBLE...WITH MANY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. ONGOING DRY AIRMASS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING REGIME ON WED CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ONGOING
DRY FCST...NICE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
CLEARING AND SEASONABLY COOL AGAIN WED NIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHING WEST SOME FROM THE GRT LKS. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INLAND BUILDING UPPER JET/WAVE ENERGY TO SHUNT
BRUNT OF OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD/FRI MORNING. WHILE MCS/S FLARE UP ACRS
THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS AS A RESULT..THE LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN
DRY THRU FRI MORNING WITH SOME SLIGHT THERMAL MODERATION.
FRIDAY...BETTER TEMP RECOVER WITH INCREASED RETURN FLOW FRI WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. DESPITE SOME MODELS TILTING UPPER RIDGE
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ENOUGH TO SPILL SOME OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MN MCS ACTIVITY DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FRI OR FRI
NIGHT...FEEL THE RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS
PROPAGATION TRAJECTORY AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SAT WHILE IT/S
ROCK AND ROLL TIME FROM THE DAKOTAS...ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND TO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE NEW
ECMWF SUGGEST BUILDING HEAT DOME WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING TO
REIGN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MID AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEYS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LLVL WARM AND MORE MOIST FETCH NOW SUPPORT
HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WILL NOT ADVERTISE THOSE EXTREMES YET...BUT
THE SUNDAY WARM SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. MAIN STORM/MCS TRACK WILL LOOK TO BE MID TO LATE SUMMER-LIKE
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...TO ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION OR
EVEN FURTHER NORTH. WESTERN WAVE ENERGY SURGE TO EVENTUALLY BE
REALIZED UP OVER THE RIDGE WITH A GREATLY DAMPENING EFFECT ON
THE BLOCKED PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY STRONG AND
DEEPENING CYCLONE PUSHING ACRS CENTRAL CANADA WILL HAVE TO SHUNT A
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME...WITH THE LATEST RUNS HINTING AT
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY QUICKER GFS WITH THIS
PROCESS HAS SLOWED TO THE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN TARGETING MON NIGH
AND TUES AS THE NEXT MAIN PRECIP WINDOW. EXTENT OF CURRENTLY PROGGED
MOISTURE FETCH/CONVEYOR UP OFF THE WESTERN GULF COULD FUEL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS COMPLEX THAT GET GENERATED BY THIS FROPA.
IF FRONT STALL ACRS THE AREA...A PROLONGED STORMY PERIOD COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. 12
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 1930Z SHOWS WEAK DIURNAL CUMULUS DVLPMNT
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS VERY LOW.
THUS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/05. AFT 18Z/05 VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
THERE BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST IF IT OCCURS. 08
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
08/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1006 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
THE FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. THE NARROW
BAND OF SHRA ACTIVITY FROM THE QUAD CITIES ON SOUTHEAST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE/FORCING PER THE LIFT TOOL.
THE LIFT TOOL WEAKENS THIS AREA AND HAS IT MOVE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THUS THE SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD END AROUND
MID DAY.
THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
WILL BE ACHIEVED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAP TRENDS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WHICH IS THE FCST MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. THE WEAK INVERTED
TROF ACROSS THE AREA WOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SFC CONVERGENCE
TO GET SOMETHING GOING. SO...THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IT MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
AVIATION... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER LOCAL MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SCT SHRA FOUND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM KMLI AND
KBRL ON TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DVLPMNT POSSIBLE WITH
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS
MAINLY WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RVR. WILL HAVE VCSH AT KMLI/KBRL THIS
MORNING BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW IN INCLUDE AT KCID/KDBQ FOR NOW. EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY THEN EAST LESS THAN 5
KNOTS TONIGHT. ON A SIDE NOTE HAVE ADDED AMD NOT SKED TO KDBQ
TERMINAL WITH MULTIPLE SENSORS NOT REPORTING AND WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS USE CAUTION.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
737 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ALREADY DIMINISHING FROM THE NORTH AND
CURRENTLY WERE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
61. IN OTHER WORDS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WERE IN WESTERN IL. THE
THUNDER HAS ENDED AND HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE
CHANGES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE NOTED IN OUR SW COUNTIES BUT EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER EXISTED ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE HRRR MESO MODEL HAS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
EXITING THE CWA BY 15Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER LOCAL
MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SCT SHRA FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM KMLI AND KBRL ON TO THE
EAST. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DVLPMNT POSSIBLE WITH HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS MAINLY WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RVR. WILL HAVE VCSH AT KMLI/KBRL THIS MORNING BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW IN INCLUDE AT KCID/KDBQ FOR NOW. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY THEN EAST LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
TONIGHT. ON A SIDE NOTE HAVE ADDED AMD NOT SKED TO KDBQ TERMINAL
WITH MULTIPLE SENSORS NOT REPORTING AND WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS USE
CAUTION.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1206 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BASED
ON LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. RAP AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL PLACES
PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST-SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN AN AREA WHERE
SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG, AND 0-6KM SHEAR
RANGED 30-40KTS. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER. BASED ON 0-6KM SHEAR AND GOOD INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH NEAR THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES IT STILL APPEARS THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL
FLOW NEAR THE DRY LINE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BRIEFLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE
CONVECTION APPEARS MOST LIKELY AND LOWERED/REMOVED PRECIPITATION
FURTHER NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
ALTHOUGH A MEAN RIDGING PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND ROCKIES REGIONS, A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL 700 MB
TROUGH IS STILL IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KANSAS, SLOWLY MAKING A
TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN THE WIND FIELD AND THE MODELS TEND TO
FAVOR THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
DRIVES THE CAPE UP INTO THE 3500 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SB CAPE VALUES MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVEN`T BEEN WARMING AS FAST AS FORECAST GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE AREA. ALSO, THE WRF/NMM RUNS AND THE HRRR ARE ONCE AGAIN
OFFERING VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
LATER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION, DRIVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
GIVEN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT, HIGH CAPE - STRONG MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY, AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY, VERY LARGE HAIL
WOULD SEEM TO BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THERE
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENTIAL IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MEAN WINDS, AND AT THIS POINT WE`LL MAINTAIN MAX HAIL SIZE AT
GOLF BALLS. LOCAL SEVERE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS ZONE, AND HEAVY WATER
LOADED STORMS SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE.
GIVEN THAT THE WRF/NMM WAS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
IT IS POSSIBLE THE LIFT MIGHT NOT BE SUFFICIENT AND IS NOT
OVERTAKING THE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AT AROUND 11 DEGREES
C. THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE ONLY MODE OF FAILURE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
AFTER ANY POTENTIAL STORMS EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT, A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTH EAST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES
BEHIND A DRYLINE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE PANHANDLES. NAM HAS
MODELED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE RECENT FORECASTS,
LIKELY OWING TO INCREASED RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER FROM
CONVECTION AS WELL AS SPILLING INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM CENTRAL
ROCKIES ORTHOGRAPHIC LIFT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AREA BY TUESDAY. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR COLORADO AND
OKLAHOMA BORDER AREAS BY 12Z TUESDAY AND PUSH A LITTLE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR A GARDEN CITY TO ASHLAND LINE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
WILL BE HOT TO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S IN
MOST LOCALS. THIS SURFACE HEATING COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW
STORMS NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IS ONLY WORTHY OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL WAVE COMES EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOW DOWN HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY, AND AS THAT FRONT RETREATS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT, THE
UPPER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE COULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN A FEW STORMS IF THEY GET GOING. THEREFORE, 30 POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER OUR WESTERN 2/3RD OF THE CWA, BASICALLY
WEST OF A WAKEENEY TO MEADE LINE. SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM, BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS 4 DAYS OUR. WILL ONLY
GO WITH 20 POPS EAST OF THAT WAKEENEY TO MEADE LINE. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE PLAYING WITH AN AFTERNOON DRY LINE MARCHING EAST
DURING THE DAY AND THEN RETREATING TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING
AND EARLY NIGHT PERIOD. CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL IN
OUR EAST NEAR WHERE THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE, EAST OF
COLDWATER TO HAYS LINE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
EXAMINED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO 20
PERCENT ON THURSDAY NIGHT, AS FORCING WILL BE MUCH LESS. FRIDAY
STILL WILL SEE A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTH AND A DRY LINE COME INTO
PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO SMALL POPS ARE IN FRO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT. A LARGE, WARM UPPER
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DO A BIT OF A YO-YOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL START TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S, DIP TO THE
THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BE ABOUT THE SAME ON
THURSDAY IN THE MID 80S, THEN START ON A WARMING TREND FRIDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WARM TO THE LOWER
90S SATURDAY AND WOULD RISE EVEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN START TO INCREASE INTO THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY AS THE WARM UPPER HIGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST
STARTS BUILDING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGH
CLOUDS AOA250. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 90 65 86 / 10 10 20 20
GCK 64 90 64 86 / 20 20 30 30
EHA 63 86 63 87 / 30 30 30 30
LBL 64 88 65 86 / 20 20 30 30
HYS 64 90 64 86 / 10 10 20 20
P28 67 89 66 86 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1015 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS
MRNG BEFORE MOVING GRADUALLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN AND
TNGT.
PREV THOUGHT PROCESS HAS NOT CHGD. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER WRN NY ERY THIS MRNG WILL DIVE SEWD THRU THE NRN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. SIMILAR TO YDA...POP-UP SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND ERY EVE AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AS
ERY AS THE LATE MRNG OVER NRN MD AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NORTH AND EAST OF
THE POTOMAC DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LVLS BETWEEN -5C
AND -15C LATE THIS AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HRS.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTN. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NRN MD TO NEAR
80F IN CENTRAL VA.
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TNGT. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVNGT FOR NRN MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THRU MID-WK...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN NLY-NWLY H5 FLOW OVER MID-ATLC RGN. SVRL SHRTWV
TROFS WILL MOVE THRU THIS FLOW TUE AND WED...LEADING TO MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHWRS OWING TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. INSTBY XPCD TO
BE SHALLOW ON TUE...SO TSTMS NOT XPCD.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHRTWV TROF ON WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCRD
LOW-LVL MSTR AHD OF APRCHG CDFNT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE GREATER CHC
FOR TSTMS.
UNUSUALLY COOL MAXIMA IN THE LWR 70S XPCD TUE AND WED...WITH
MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY IN CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE WK WHILE NERN
CONUS UPR LOW SHIFTS EWD. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLC
RGN FRI AND SAT...EFFECTIVELY LMTG ANY PCPN CHCS.
SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS SRN NY/CNTRL PA ON SUN. MSTR XPCD TO
INCR AHD OF THIS WAVE AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE RGN. AS A RESULT...
TSTMS MAY DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY SUN EVE...WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD
INTO FCST AREA. ONLY CHG TO POPS IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE SLGT
CHC TSTMS DURG SUN NGT PD.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WK AS UPR RDG MOVES
CLOSER. MAXIMA NR OR SLGTLY ABV NRML CAN BE XPCD DURG THE WKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WLY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL
VEER TO NWLY THIS AFTN AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU. BREEZY WINDS
TDA WILL GUST 20-25 KT. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA TO IMPACT BWI/MTN. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS CAN BE XPCD TUE AND WED. IT IS NOT PSBL ATTM
TO IDENTIFY WHETHER THESE WOULD IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
CLDS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST WED NGT...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
RMN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TDA...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT
EXPECTED. WLY WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...BECOMING NWLY BY THIS
AFTN. DESPITE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
LOCALIZED 30 KT OR HIGHER WIND GUST TDA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN
THE AFTN WHEN THE WIND FIELD IS THE STRONGEST.
SMALL CRAFT ADZY WAS RETAINED THRU MID-DAY TUE OWING TO NLY
CHANNELING PSBLTY. WIND WILL BCM LGT THEREAFTER. NO SGFNT MARINE
HAZARDS XPCD THRU RMNDR OF WK OWING TO APRCHG SFC HIPRES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CSTL FLOOD ADVYS HV EXPIRED...BUT ELEV WATER LVLS REMAIN.
DEPARTURES ARND ONE-HALF FT-- NOT ENUF TO EXCEED THRESHOLDS FOR THE
LWR SEMIDIURNAL TIDE OF THE DAY /WHICH IS IN THE PM/ BUT ENUF TO
CAUSE CONCERNS FOR THE HIGHER MRNG TIDE. ADVYS MAY BE REQD AGAIN
FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS...SPCLY IN THE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
535-536-538-542.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HTS/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KRAMAR
LONG TERM...KRAMAR
AVIATION...KLEIN/KRAMAR
MARINE...KLEIN/KRAMAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/JE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
614 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS
MRNG BEFORE MOVING GRADUALLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN AND
TNGT. EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
MRNG.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN NY ERY THIS MRNG WILL
DIVE SEWD THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. SIMILAR TO YDA...POP-
UP SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND
ERY EVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY
DEVELOP AS ERY AS THE LATE MRNG OVER NRN MD AS LIFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NORTH
AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LVLS BETWEEN -5C
AND -15C LATE THIS AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HRS.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTN. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NRN MD TO NEAR
80F IN CENTRAL VA.
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TNGT. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVNGT FOR NRN MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THRU MID-WK...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN NLY-NWLY H5 FLOW OVER MID-ATLC RGN. SVRL SHRTWV
TROFS WILL MOVE THRU THIS FLOW TUE AND WED...LEADING TO MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHWRS OWING TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. INSTBY XPCD TO
BE SHALLOW ON TUE...SO TSTMS NOT XPCD.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHRTWV TROF ON WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCRD
LOW-LVL MSTR AHD OF APRCHG CDFNT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE GREATER CHC
FOR TSTMS.
UNUSUALLY COOL MAXIMA IN THE LWR 70S XPCD TUE AND WED...WITH
MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY IN CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE WK WHILE NERN
CONUS UPR LOW SHIFTS EWD. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLC
RGN FRI AND SAT...EFFECTIVELY LMTG ANY PCPN CHCS.
SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS SRN NY/CNTRL PA ON SUN. MSTR XPCD TO
INCR AHD OF THIS WAVE AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE RGN. AS A RESULT...
TSTMS MAY DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY SUN EVE...WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD
INTO FCST AREA. ONLY CHG TO POPS IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE SLGT
CHC TSTMS DURG SUN NGT PD.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WK AS UPR RDG MOVES
CLOSER. MAXIMA NR OR SLGTLY ABV NRML CAN BE XPCD DURG THE WKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WLY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL
VEER TO NWLY THIS AFTN AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU. BREEZY WINDS
TDA WILL GUST 20-25 KT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SCT SHRA WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA TO IMPACT
BWI/MTN. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS CAN BE XPCD TUE AND WED. IT IS NOT PSBL ATTM
TO IDENTIFY WHETHER THESE WOULD IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
CLDS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST WED NGT...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
RMN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LGT WINDS ERY THIS MRNG WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. SCA IN
EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TDA...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED. WLY
WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...BECOMING NWLY BY THIS AFTN. DESPITE
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALIZED 30 KT OR
HIGHER WIND GUST TDA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE AFTN WHEN THE WIND
FIELD IS THE STRONGEST.
SMALL CRAFT ADZY WAS RETAINED THRU MID-DAY TUE OWING TO NLY
CHANNELING PSBLTY. WIND WILL BCM LGT THEREAFTER. NO SGFNT MARINE
HAZARDS XPCD THRU RMNDR OF WK OWING TO APRCHG SFC HIPRES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EXPANDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO INCLUDE DC. THE CURRENT TIDAL
ANOMALY AT WASH CHANNEL IS 0.7 ABOVE...WHICH WOULD PUT THE TIDAL
LVL JUST ABOVE MINOR THRESHOLD WITH THE MRNG HIGH TIDE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MON MRNG HIGH
TIDE CYCLE FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIDAL
POTOMAC AND WRN SHORE OF THE MD CHSPK BAY. POSITIVE ANOMALIES
REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 FT OVNGT. WITH A FULL MOON...
DEPARTURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL TRANSLATE TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AT ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS. WILL STILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE SLIGHTLY LESS SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOWLEY BAR
AND WASHINGTON CHANNEL...SINCE THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE CLOSE TO
THEIR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
535-536-538-542.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KLEIN
PREV DISC...KLEIN/KRAMAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1005 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS STALLED OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND TO VALUES
MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN LATE THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR CWA. WEAK
SHORT WAVE OVER SE ONTARIO IS SLOWLY MAKING SW PROGRESS TOWARD ERN
UPR AND FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS APPEAR
TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ADDITION OF SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR ERN UPR AND FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN AS WE HEAD
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS THIS NOTION...AND
SHOWS A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THESE SHOWERS VERY LATE TONIGHT
(I.E. BY AROUND 09Z). SHORT WAVE WILL REIGNITE SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT BEEN SUCCESSFUL ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY OR
EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO SE
ONTARIO THANKS TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED
MOISTURE RIDING THRU THE LINGERING 500 MB TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER WISCONSIN...ALSO THANKS TO A WEAK WAVE.
AND MICHIGAN...ONCE AGAIN...FOUND ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPSTREAM WAVE OVER ONTARIO TO SEE IF ANY
CONVECTION SURVIVES THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY LATER THIS
EVENING. BUT FOR NOW...WILL KEEP TONIGHT`S FORECAST DRY AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THIS WAVE...BUT CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND 18Z...
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO ILLINOIS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF VORTICITY CENTERS SPINNING AROUND
AND/OR APPROACHING THE REGION. ONE SMALL WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HELPING SPIT OUT SOME SHOWERS THERE...WITH A
COUPLE OF VORTICITY CENTERS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND HEADING SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
TRYING TO DRIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER...WHILE INITIAL CU DECK OVER
NORTHERN LOWER WAS FLATTENED BY SMALL MID LEVEL CAP...LEADING TO A
GOOD BIT OF CU/AC ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT NO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS OF 20Z.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STUCK UPPER LOW OFF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SPIN A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THE
FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY (AND A THIRD IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DISTURBANCES SHOW UP MUCH BETTER IN
DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE CHARTS THAN TRADITIONAL VORTICITY PROGS). WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN/
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP TO WANE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WITH
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN
SOME MID CLOUD (AC/ACCAS) OVERSPREADING EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C) WHICH STEEPENS
LAPSE RATES AND GENERATES A LITTLE MORE BONA FIDE INSTABILITY IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS (APPROACHING 400J/KG MLCAPE). PASSING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER WILL HELP PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER)...LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO HELP
THOUGH RATHER DEEP MIXING/HIGH LCLS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN DEEP MIXING AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
PATTERN: THE NAO CONTINUES STRONGLY NEGATIVE (-2). THE NAO HAS NOT
BEEN THAT LOW SINCE EARLY LAST AUG...INDICATIVE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY
MILD LAST 10 MONTHS. GFS ENSEMBLE HEMISPHERIC HGT ANOMALIES SUGGEST
THESE HIGH LATITUDE +HGT ANOMALIES RETROGRADE AND DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. A FLOW REGIME MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WILL EVOLVE
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AS THE ERN USA -HGT ANOMALY GETS BOOTED INTO
THE ATLC AS CURRENT WRN USA TROF HEADS E. THIS MEANS WE`LL WARM IT
UP THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE GTLKS...AND
ALLOWS ATLC SUB-TROPICAL HIGH TO RETROGRADE AND JOIN IT.
FCST CONFIDENCE: TEMPS/HGTS TRENDS ARE HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ONLY
PERIOD OF BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE IS FRI-FRI NGT WITH MCS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED IN/NEAR THE FCST AREA. CLOUDS/TEMPS MAY END UP DIFFERENT
THAN WE`VE CURRENT FCST.
BEGINNING WED NGT AND CONTINUING INTO THU...THE GTLKS WILL REMAIN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE ERN USA TROF...ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE POLAR
JET. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD. THE POLAR JET AXIS
WILL DRIFT THRU THU NGT WITH RISING HGTS. HIGH PRES WILL SINK INTO
THE OH VLY. FRI WE`RE IN THE "WARM" SECTOR AS SOME TYPE OF WEAK LOW
SKIRTS JUST N OF THE FCST AREA. ESSENTIALLY THIS LOW SLIDES DOWN THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BISECT THE FCST AREA BY 8 AM/SAT. A
NARROW PLUME OF HIGH K-INDEX WILL SLIDE THRU FRI-FRI NGT...
SUPPORTIVE OF EXISTING POPS FROM THE 4 AM APX FCST. THE WRN END OF
THIS PLUME WILL LIFT NWD ACRS MN/WI SAT-SAT NGT. THIS TAIL END OF
THIS IS FCST TO GROW SEWD ACRS NRN MI.
MEANWHILE...SUMMERTIME HEAT BUILDS AS WAA DEVELOPS FRI-SAT NGT. WE
USUALLY CAN`T MAKE THIS TRANSITION WITHOUT SOME RAIN. SUN-MON WE`RE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE HEAT ARRIVES.
HEAT: BELIEVE WE`LL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS OVER NRN LOWER MI SUN-MON
...WHICH RUN 90-93F TVC/APN/PLN/GLR. HTL IS 95F BOTH DAYS AND OUT OF
REACH BY 3-4F. CONSERVATIVE GFS ENSEMBLE 850 MB TEMPS/HGTS OF
+17C/582 SUN OFFER 85-90F AND +18C/585 MON OFFER 86-91F. 12Z/4
00Z/5 AND 12Z/5 ECMWF 850 MB TEMPS ARE 18-19C.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE MON NGT-TUE MRNG TIMEFRAME.
TEMPS ARE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MOS OR 2M TEMPS THU-FRI. DWPTS
ARE A BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
THE DAILIES...
WED NGT: M/CLEAR EXCEPT P/CLOUDY AROUND ANY LINGERING SHWR ACTIVITY
WHICH DISSIPATES EARLY. STILL SOME SEASONABLE CHILL IN THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS FROM PELLSTON-INDIAN RVR-ATLANTA-MIO-GRAYLING.
THU: M/SUNNY. LINGERING THERMAL TROF WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD BUT WITH
DECREASING MSTR. CONTINUITY MAINATED WITH POPS FROM 4 AM APX FCST...
FOR AN ISOLD BRIEF SHWR S AND E OF GRAYLING WITH BEST LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND MSTR. TEMPS ARE CONSENSUS OF MOS WITH A BIAS
CORRECTION FOR NRN LOWER. ERN U.P. IS STRAIGHT MOS CONSENSUS AS BC
APPEARED A LITTLE TOO WARM.
NAM 2M WINDS APPEAR A LITTLE TOO STRONG WITH MINIMAL LAKE BREEZE S
OF APN. SO MANUALLY ADJUSTED DIRECTION TO ONSHORE 11AM-5PM. DWPTS
ARE CONSENSUS OF MOS.
FRI: UNSURE HOW IT UNFOLDS BUT WE PROBABLY HAVE AN MCS OR ITS
REMNANTS HEADING SE TOWARD THE FCST AREA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. CLOUDS/POPS WERE MODESTLY
INCREASED. MAINTAINED NO MENTION OF THUNDER FROM 4AM APX FCST.
FRI NGT-SAT: PROBABLY ENDS UP M/CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING MCS
REMNANTS. SAT IS CAUTIOUSLY DRY AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN.
SAT NGT: MAIN LLJ CORE IS AIMED AT MN/WI SO MAIN TSTM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO THE W. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING REMNANTS MAY SLIDE SE INTO
NRN MI. FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS ARE POINTING HERE. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE FCST PRIMARILY
FROM THE BRIDGE NWD. AM NOT ENTIRELY COMFORTABLE WITH NO POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. CAN ENVISION MCS ROLLING DOWN THE
THICKNESS GRADIENT AFTER MIDNGT. "IF" THIS OCCURS...SUNDAY`S FCST
COULD BE IN JEOPARDY N OF RAIN/NO-RAIN BOUNDARY.
SUN: M/SUNNY. HOT OVER NRN LOWER /65-80F FOR ERN U.P. AND 84-90F FOR
NON-MARINE INFLUENCED AREAS OF NRN LOWER MI/.
MON: M/SUNNY BREEZY AND HOT OVER NRN LOWER AND PROBABLY M/CLOUDY
OVER THE ERN U.P. WITH A CHANCE OF AFTN SHWRS/THUNDER?. /66-76F ERN
U.P. AND 85-92F NON-MARINE INFLUENCE AREAS OF NRN LOWER MI/.
MON NGT: SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WITH FROPA.
TUE: SHWRS MAY LINGER S AND E OF GAYLORD. CLEARING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS THRU
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
FOR NOW. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 KTS OR
LESS FROM THE N/NW ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND
SUBSEQUENT WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE BREEZE COMPONENTS DRIVING WIND
DIRECTIONS ONSHORE ON A LOCAL BASIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...AJS
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JDH
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
739 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA AND RDG IN THE PLAINS.
UPR MI IS LOCATED ON THE CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS WITHIN THE NNW
FLOW...WITH ACCOMPANYING N-S ORIENTED H85 TROF STRETCHING FM NW
ONTARIO ACRS THE WRN CWA INTO WI BTWN ACYC OVER NW MN AND ANOTHER IN
ONTARIO JUST NE OF LK SUP. SINCE THIS TROF IS ALSO UNDER AN AXIS OF
HIER MID LVL MSTR/STEEPER LAPSE RATES...THERE HAD BEEN A FEW -SHRA
INTO THIS MRNG UNDER AREA OF PERSISTENT H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC BEST
HIGHLIGHTED BY RECENT ECMWF RUNS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MORE SCT
-SHRA HAVE DVLPD OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE. MORE NMRS CU ARE ALSO PRESENT OVER
THE E WHERE A BAND OF MID CLD DRIFTED WWD INTO THAT AREA FM ONTARIO.
BUT RATHER STABLE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB SO FAR E OF UPR
JET AXIS WL LIKELY INHIBIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY SHRA THAT
MIGHT DVLP IN THIS AREA BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT ANY -SHRA THAT DVLP
THIS AFTN TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVNG AS BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HINTS UPR JET AXIS WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE W AND RESULT IN WEAKENING
H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/INCRSG UPR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LK SUP
CLOSER TO MORE WELL DEFINED SHRTWV STRADDLING THE NW ONTARIO/MN
BORDER. WITH SFC HI PRES/LGT WINDS OVER UPR MI TNGT...EXPECT MIN
TEMPS TO FALL AT LEAST TO OR A FEW DEGREES BLO LO TEMPS THE READINGS
THIS MRNG AS PWAT IS FCST TO BE A BIT LOWER AT 6/12Z THAN THIS MRNG.
SINCE SOME FOG DID FORM THIS MRNG WHERE RA HAD FALLEN YDAY AFTN...
OPTED TO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE
THERE IS A BETTER CHC OF SOME -SHRA THIS AFTN AND CONDITIONS FOR
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT.
WED...12Z GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING TRACK OF
SHRTWV NOW IN NW ONTARIO ARPCHG NRN MN. THE NAM INDICATES THIS
DISTURBANCE/ACCOMPANYING H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC WL TRACK A BIT FARTHER
TO THE E THAN THE GFS/CNDN...WHICH SHOW FOCUS OF FORCING HOLDING
MAINLY IN NW WI/MN. GIVEN THE UPR BLOCK OVER SE CANADA AND SHRTWVS
NOTED ON WV IMAGERY SHIFTING WWD THRU QUEBEC...FEEL THE FARTHER W
GFS/CNDN ARE PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK. IN FACT...THE CNDN MODEL
HINTS SOME -SHRA MIGHT IMPACT THE FAR E ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES NOW IN QUEBEC. SO TENDED TO RESTRICT POPS FOR
INSTABILITY AFTN -SHRA ON WED TO THE FAR W AND THE E...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE CNTRL UNDER ACYC AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
UPPER MI WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIRLY BENIGN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. WITH LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUING...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO BE PREDOMINANT IN THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DIURNAL CONVECTION DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. BEST FORCING REMAINS IN THE INTERIOR WEST OF
UPPER MI...SO IF ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING THIS IDEA AS WELL. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THESE SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY SET UP
IF THEY DO HAPPEN...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES. SUPPORT
PREVIOUS FORECASTS DECISION TO LEAVE OUT MENTION TSRA DUE TO LOW CAPE
VALUES /LESS THAN 300 J/KG/ AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES /5 TO 6 C/KM/.
LOOKING AT TOTAL TOTALS...STRONG STABLE LAYER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS
WELL AS UPPER MI WILL SUPPRESS NEEDED LIFT FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN UPPER MI
FRIDAY...AND TRAVERSING THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND
INCOMING WAA /AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/ WILL CAUSE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH
UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS FOR TIMING OF THIS PRECIP WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE GFS AND GEM BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIP WILL NOT ENTER WESTERN UPPER MI UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT QVECTOR CONV AND WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
COULD MEAN THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA.
AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AND PICK UP SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON /BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
SUSTAINED/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER AIR TO PULL INTO UPPER
MI...WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 15C ON SATURDAY...AND 20+C ON
SUNDAY.
AFTER THE EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA MOVING SE/
COULD ALLOW FOR LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH
UNCERTAIN ON THE EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR PLACEMENT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCES. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD. A LITTLE BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY MAY YIELD ISOLD
CONVECTION ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WED AFTN...BUT AT THIS
POINT...THE POTENTIAL OF PCPN ALONG THE BOUNDARIES NEAR KIWD/KSAW IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
VERY QUIET MARINE PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THU NIGHT. A QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS LK SUPERIOR ON FRI...BRINGING
A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 20 KTS OVER AT LEAST THE EAST HALF. LOOK FOR
A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE TO DOMINATE ON SAT. A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 20
KTS WILL DEVELOP ON SUN UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS HI RETREATING TO THE E AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
952 PM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
MADE A SECOND UPDATE FOR WINDS OVER WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT. HAD A
WIND GUST TO 69 MPH AT THE LIVINGSTON AIRPORT JUST BEFORE 9 PM
THIS EVENING...THOUGH WINDS IN THE TOWN OF LIVINGSTON LOOKED TO BE
WEAKER IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE. THIS REPORT WAS STRANGE BECAUSE
THERE HAD ALREADY BEEN PLENTY OF CONVECTION IN LIVINGSTON AND
TEMPERATURES WERE A RAIN COOLED INTO THE 60S AT THE TIME OF THE
GUST WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION NEAR LIVINGSTON. HOWEVER WINDS
IN BIG TIMBER AND NYE HAVE ALSO INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
PAST HOUR LENDING THE LIVINGSTON REPORT CREDIBILITY. TEMPERATURES
IN YELLOWSTONE PARK HAVE COOLED INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING AND
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS DENSER
AIR CREATED A WAVE OF WIND THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE LIVINGSTON AREA
AND IS ALSO PUSHING DOWN MOST OF THE VALLEYS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BEARTOOTH FRONT...A LATE SEASON MODIFIED GAP WIND EVENT. INCREASED
WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS FOR TONIGHT BUT HELD OFF ON ISSUING
HIGHLITE SINCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN LIVINGSTON OVER THE
PAST HALF HOUR...AND SINCE GAP TYPE WINDS EVENTS USUALLY END
FAIRLY QUICKLY POST FRONTAL. THESE STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO FOOTHILLS AND AREAS ADJACENT THE NORTHERN BEARTOOTH
MOUNTAINS. CHAMBERS
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX PERIOD IS AHEAD WHILE A NEGATIVELY- TILTED 500-HPA
TROUGH AFFECTS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WINDS IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS
WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH.
AS OF 21 UTC...CONVECTION IS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BUOYANCY WITH ONLY
500 J/KG OR LESS OF MLCAPE PER RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THIS
IS BEING COMPENSATED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OVER 50 KT. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS STORMS RACE TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MT THROUGH THE EVENING. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGES SHOW A SOLID AREA
OF DRY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL AIR FROM BILLINGS NORTH TO NEAR HAVRE
AS OF 21 UTC...AND THAT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A DETRIMENT TO MUCH
DEVELOPMENT TOO FAR EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT. HOWEVER...ONCE WE
HEAD INTO THE EVENING...OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST COULD
CONGLOMERATE AND ENHANCE THE WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT IS ON TARGET FOR BILLINGS BEFORE 06 UTC. MOST SOUNDINGS FROM
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE AT LEAST 40 KT OF WIND WITHIN 2000
FT AGL OF THE SURFACE AT BILLINGS BY 06 UTC. IF THERE IS ANY KIND
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
THEN HIGH WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL DOWNSTREAM OF ANY STORMS. THAT MAY
REQUIRE SOME MESOSCALE-BASED FORECAST UPDATES THIS EVENING...WITH
CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING ANYTHING MORE THAN A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THAT WITHIN OUR CURRENT FORECAST PRODUCTS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT...THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF GETTING
SOME HIGH-BASED CONVECTION GIVEN INTENSE SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY
BE ABLE TO REMOVE MLCIN DESPITE 700-HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE +14 C
RANGE. SOME RUNS OF THE HRRR AND EVEN THE 12 AND 18 UTC NAM MODEL
SOLUTIONS PROVIDE EVIDENCE OF THIS CONVECTIVE RISK. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING WITH THE GRADIENT AND MIXING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF MT AS OF MID AFTERNOON...AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET OF 50 KT OR MORE WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. MODEL PROJECTIONS
OF 500 M AGL WINDS IN THE 35 KT RANGE IMPLY SURFACE WINDS MAY END
UP VERY NEAR BUT LARGELY JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA...BUT THIS
WILL REQUIRE CLOSE OBSERVATIONAL MONITORING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ON WED...THE 500-HPA TROUGH WILL HEAD NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA
AND WE WILL HAVE A DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THERMAL PROFILES BETWEEN THE 12 UTC MODELS
SINCE THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT COOLER ALOFT. WE LEANED TOWARD A BIT
WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW...BUT WE DID NOT GO
AS WARM AS THE 12 UTC GFS-BASED MOS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
BY THU...A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAY GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT. THERE HAS
BEEN A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS MOISTURE
TO ARRIVE LATE WED NIGHT INTO THE DAY THU...BUT SOME QUESTIONS DO
EXIST WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST IT MAY END UP. SCHULTZ/CHURCH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED.
FRIDAY WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL DAY...AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD...WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE BY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO GENERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE AND SHEAR
VALUES DO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS INDICATE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. INCREASED
SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...SO KEPT SLIGHT
POPS IN FOR EASTERN ZONES. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROPAGATE
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH MONTANA THIS
WEEKEND. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW.
TEMPS AT 700 MB DROP BELOW 0C BY LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN THE
-2C TO 0C RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 60S AND
70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
CONTINUED THE UPWARD POPS TREND SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA. MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
NOTED WITH STORMS SO FAR THIS EVENING AND IS LIKELY TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR CONVECTION. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/072 047/075 050/087 055/070 047/064 047/073 051/078
21/N 01/U 12/T 44/T 54/T 32/T 12/T
LVM 046/066 036/072 042/079 046/064 041/057 039/070 041/079
52/T 01/U 13/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 13/T
HDN 053/075 046/076 048/090 053/074 048/066 046/074 048/078
11/N 01/B 12/T 33/T 44/T 32/T 12/T
MLS 061/076 052/077 053/091 058/078 049/070 048/074 050/083
21/N 13/T 12/T 23/T 43/T 32/T 12/T
4BQ 059/076 050/076 052/090 056/079 049/069 047/073 048/080
21/N 23/T 12/T 23/T 44/T 32/T 12/T
BHK 062/079 050/073 051/085 057/079 049/068 047/071 047/078
22/T 25/T 32/T 22/T 44/T 32/T 12/T
SHR 049/072 045/074 049/086 051/075 046/067 043/070 045/074
21/U 11/B 12/T 24/T 53/T 32/T 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
912 PM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...AS THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED. OTHERWISE...THE GOING
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AAG
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX PERIOD IS AHEAD WHILE A NEGATIVELY- TILTED 500-HPA
TROUGH AFFECTS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WINDS IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS
WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH.
AS OF 21 UTC...CONVECTION IS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BUOYANCY WITH ONLY
500 J/KG OR LESS OF MLCAPE PER RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THIS
IS BEING COMPENSATED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OVER 50 KT. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS STORMS RACE TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MT THROUGH THE EVENING. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGES SHOW A SOLID AREA
OF DRY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL AIR FROM BILLINGS NORTH TO NEAR HAVRE
AS OF 21 UTC...AND THAT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A DETRIMENT TO MUCH
DEVELOPMENT TOO FAR EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT. HOWEVER...ONCE WE
HEAD INTO THE EVENING...OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST COULD
CONGLOMERATE AND ENHANCE THE WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT IS ON TARGET FOR BILLINGS BEFORE 06 UTC. MOST SOUNDINGS FROM
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE AT LEAST 40 KT OF WIND WITHIN 2000
FT AGL OF THE SURFACE AT BILLINGS BY 06 UTC. IF THERE IS ANY KIND
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
THEN HIGH WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL DOWNSTREAM OF ANY STORMS. THAT MAY
REQUIRE SOME MESOSCALE-BASED FORECAST UPDATES THIS EVENING...WITH
CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING ANYTHING MORE THAN A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THAT WITHIN OUR CURRENT FORECAST PRODUCTS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT...THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF GETTING
SOME HIGH-BASED CONVECTION GIVEN INTENSE SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY
BE ABLE TO REMOVE MLCIN DESPITE 700-HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE +14 C
RANGE. SOME RUNS OF THE HRRR AND EVEN THE 12 AND 18 UTC NAM MODEL
SOLUTIONS PROVIDE EVIDENCE OF THIS CONVECTIVE RISK. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING WITH THE GRADIENT AND MIXING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF MT AS OF MID AFTERNOON...AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET OF 50 KT OR MORE WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. MODEL PROJECTIONS
OF 500 M AGL WINDS IN THE 35 KT RANGE IMPLY SURFACE WINDS MAY END
UP VERY NEAR BUT LARGELY JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA...BUT THIS
WILL REQUIRE CLOSE OBSERVATIONAL MONITORING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ON WED...THE 500-HPA TROUGH WILL HEAD NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA
AND WE WILL HAVE A DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THERMAL PROFILES BETWEEN THE 12 UTC MODELS
SINCE THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT COOLER ALOFT. WE LEANED TOWARD A BIT
WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW...BUT WE DID NOT GO
AS WARM AS THE 12 UTC GFS-BASED MOS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
BY THU...A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAY GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT. THERE HAS
BEEN A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS MOISTURE
TO ARRIVE LATE WED NIGHT INTO THE DAY THU...BUT SOME QUESTIONS DO
EXIST WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST IT MAY END UP. SCHULTZ/CHURCH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED.
FRIDAY WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL DAY...AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD...WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE BY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO GENERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE AND SHEAR
VALUES DO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS INDICATE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. INCREASED
SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...SO KEPT SLIGHT
POPS IN FOR EASTERN ZONES. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROPAGATE
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH MONTANA THIS
WEEKEND. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW.
TEMPS AT 700 MB DROP BELOW 0C BY LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN THE
-2C TO 0C RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 60S AND
70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
CONTINUED THE UPWARD POPS TREND SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA. MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
NOTED WITH STORMS SO FAR THIS EVENING AND IS LIKELY TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR CONVECTION. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/072 047/075 050/087 055/070 047/064 047/073 051/078
21/N 01/U 12/T 44/T 54/T 32/T 12/T
LVM 046/066 036/072 042/079 046/064 041/057 039/070 041/079
52/T 01/U 13/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 13/T
HDN 053/075 046/076 048/090 053/074 048/066 046/074 048/078
11/N 01/B 12/T 33/T 44/T 32/T 12/T
MLS 061/076 052/077 053/091 058/078 049/070 048/074 050/083
21/N 13/T 12/T 23/T 43/T 32/T 12/T
4BQ 059/076 050/076 052/090 056/079 049/069 047/073 048/080
21/N 23/T 12/T 23/T 44/T 32/T 12/T
BHK 062/079 050/073 051/085 057/079 049/068 047/071 047/078
22/T 25/T 32/T 22/T 44/T 32/T 12/T
SHR 049/072 045/074 049/086 051/075 046/067 043/070 045/074
21/U 11/B 12/T 24/T 53/T 32/T 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
439 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT UNTIL 07 UTC. SCATTERED STORMS MAY YIELD
SOME SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. SCHULTZ
A HOT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A DYNAMIC 500-HPA TROUGH
TO OUR WEST SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THE RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE DURING THIS TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT....A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK WILL
EXIST...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS OF 20 UTC.
THERE IS EVEN A BIT OF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THANKS
TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE RESULT IS AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8 C/KM. THE RAP-
BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXCEPT IN
THE LIVINGSTON AREA...WHERE WE MAY SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP AND MOVE
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES
ALSO SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HEADING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL WY...AND THE 18 UTC RAP SIMULATES A
SMALL LOWERING OF THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE IN THAT VICINITY. THAT MODEL
TAKES THIS PERTURBATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS EVEN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT BY 00 UTC...SO THAT COULD BE A TRIGGER TO GET SOME
STORMS GOING AS WELL. THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING MAKES THIS
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST THOUGH...SO WE MAINLY HAVE 20 OR 30 POPS FOR
THIS SITUATION. THE EXCEPTION IS FROM LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON...AS
THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS STILL SHOW A 50-60 KT 300-HPA JET STREAK IN
THAT AREA DURING THE EVENING. IF OR WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP...SOME
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT WILL EXIST WITH 40 KT OF BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER. THE GRIDDED FORECAST WAS TWEAKED TO MAKE MENTION
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ANOTHER ROW OR TWO COUNTIES TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...NOW TAKING THE THREAT EAST OF BILLINGS ACROSS
MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT. THAT IS OUT OF RESPECT TO THE WAVE WHICH
IS COMING OUT OF WY...AND TRENDS IN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE RECENT RAP
AND NAM MODELS.
TUE...A VERY WARM AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MIXING TO
700 HPA /WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +15 C/ OR DEEPER MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO YIELD 100 F READINGS IN SOME PLACES LIKE MILES CITY.
IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT AND DEWPOINTS REALLY DROP...WE MAY
END UP SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL EVERYWHERE WITH OUR HIGHS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MT...WHERE 500 M AGL WINDS NEAR 30 KT EXIST. NOTE THE
12 UTC MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH WINDS AT BAKER...SO WE
DID NOT INCLUDE ANY HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS JUNCTURE. POTENTIAL OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS ALSO ON OUR MINDS...BUT IT IS NOT TOO CLEAR
HOW LOW HUMIDITY WILL GET...SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE AGAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT MLCAPE SHOULD
STILL BE 500 TO 1000 J/KG EVEN IF SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS IN THE
DEEP MIXING REGIME. GREATER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST NEAR LIVINGSTON.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH REGARD TO FORCING...AND WHETHER THERE
WILL BE DETRIMENTAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO UPDRAFTS. THUS WE STILL
HAVE ONLY LOW POPS IN PLAY FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FROM LIVINGSTON
TO HARLOWTON...WHERE A COLD FRONT MAY YIELD GREATER STORM COVERAGE
DURING THE EVENING. AGAIN A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT EXISTS. IT
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS COULD FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AS
IT PASSES TUE NIGHT...BUT WE HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT ITS TIMING.
WED...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL HEAD NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA
AND PLACE A 90 KT 300-HPA JET OVERHEAD. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LOW
SHOWER THREAT...BUT WE ARE NOT INCLUDING THAT IN THE FORECAST JUST
YET GIVEN THE DRYING/STABILIZING POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. UPPER LOW
NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW MAY INTERACT WITH SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EAST TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT
POPS/QPF IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY...BUT LOWERED
THEM A BIT FARTHER WEST...WHERE DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE ACCENTUATED
BY WEAK MID- LEVEL RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW WILL TAP INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE
AND WORK WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE AND AN APPROACHING
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AS 700 MB
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS AND GOOD
MIXING IS EXPECTED. WITH THE WARMER 700 MB TEMPS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THIS MAY ACT AS A CAP IN THAT REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...SO THE MID- LEVEL CAP WILL ERODE...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO EASTERN ZONES.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT COMBINING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DAYTIME
HEATING...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE...INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...SO HIGH
TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY TO REFLECT THIS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SO DECREASED POPS. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP
TO KBIL TO KSHR LINE THROUGH 23Z...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 55 KT AND LARGE
HAIL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER KMLS...KBHK AND EKALAKA
THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE
FROM MVFR TO LIFR. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID-
AFTERNOON WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO RED LODGE LINE AND EAST OF A KMLS
TO BROADUS LINE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN
ROUTES TUESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/094 054/074 049/075 050/085 055/076 048/070 046/071
21/B 21/N 11/B 12/T 22/T 33/T 21/B
LVM 053/087 046/070 040/073 042/080 046/072 042/065 038/066
43/T 42/W 11/B 12/T 23/T 43/T 32/W
HDN 063/097 054/076 049/076 049/087 053/079 049/073 046/073
21/B 11/B 12/T 12/T 22/T 33/T 21/B
MLS 069/099 061/079 053/077 052/087 058/080 053/074 050/071
22/T 21/N 12/T 22/T 22/T 33/T 21/B
4BQ 064/095 059/077 052/076 051/087 056/082 050/075 049/071
22/T 21/N 33/T 22/T 22/T 32/T 21/B
BHK 062/093 060/078 051/073 051/081 057/080 050/072 049/068
22/T 21/N 24/T 32/T 21/B 33/T 21/N
SHR 058/092 053/074 047/073 047/084 051/079 047/070 044/069
21/N 11/B 12/T 12/T 22/T 33/T 21/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MDT
TUESDAY FOR ZONES 28-29-34-35-39>42-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
313 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
A HOT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A DYNAMIC 500-HPA TROUGH
TO OUR WEST SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THE RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE DURING THIS TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT....A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK WILL
EXIST...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS OF 20 UTC.
THERE IS EVEN A BIT OF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THANKS
TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE RESULT IS AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8 C/KM. THE RAP-
BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXCEPT IN
THE LIVINGSTON AREA...WHERE WE MAY SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP AND MOVE
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES
ALSO SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HEADING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL WY...AND THE 18 UTC RAP SIMULATES A
SMALL LOWERING OF THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE IN THAT VICINITY. THAT MODEL
TAKES THIS PERTURBATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS EVEN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT BY 00 UTC...SO THAT COULD BE A TRIGGER TO GET SOME
STORMS GOING AS WELL. THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING MAKES THIS
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST THOUGH...SO WE MAINLY HAVE 20 OR 30 POPS FOR
THIS SITUATION. THE EXCEPTION IS FROM LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON...AS
THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS STILL SHOW A 50-60 KT 300-HPA JET STREAK IN
THAT AREA DURING THE EVENING. IF OR WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP...SOME
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT WILL EXIST WITH 40 KT OF BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER. THE GRIDDED FORECAST WAS TWEAKED TO MAKE MENTION
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ANOTHER ROW OR TWO COUNTIES TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...NOW TAKING THE THREAT EAST OF BILLINGS ACROSS
MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT. THAT IS OUT OF RESPECT TO THE WAVE WHICH
IS COMING OUT OF WY...AND TRENDS IN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE RECENT RAP
AND NAM MODELS.
TUE...A VERY WARM AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MIXING TO
700 HPA /WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +15 C/ OR DEEPER MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO YIELD 100 F READINGS IN SOME PLACES LIKE MILES CITY.
IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT AND DEWPOINTS REALLY DROP...WE MAY
END UP SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL EVERYWHERE WITH OUR HIGHS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MT...WHERE 500 M AGL WINDS NEAR 30 KT EXIST. NOTE THE
12 UTC MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH WINDS AT BAKER...SO WE
DID NOT INCLUDE ANY HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS JUNCTURE. POTENTIAL OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS ALSO ON OUR MINDS...BUT IT IS NOT TOO CLEAR
HOW LOW HUMIDITY WILL GET...SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE AGAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT MLCAPE SHOULD
STILL BE 500 TO 1000 J/KG EVEN IF SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS IN THE
DEEP MIXING REGIME. GREATER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST NEAR LIVINGSTON.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH REGARD TO FORCING...AND WHETHER THERE
WILL BE DETRIMENTAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO UPDRAFTS. THUS WE STILL
HAVE ONLY LOW POPS IN PLAY FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FROM LIVINGSTON
TO HARLOWTON...WHERE A COLD FRONT MAY YIELD GREATER STORM COVERAGE
DURING THE EVENING. AGAIN A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT EXISTS. IT
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS COULD FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AS
IT PASSES TUE NIGHT...BUT WE HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT ITS TIMING.
WED...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL HEAD NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA
AND PLACE A 90 KT 300-HPA JET OVERHEAD. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LOW
SHOWER THREAT...BUT WE ARE NOT INCLUDING THAT IN THE FORECAST JUST
YET GIVEN THE DRYING/STABILIZING POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. UPPER LOW
NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW MAY INTERACT WITH SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EAST TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT
POPS/QPF IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY...BUT LOWERED
THEM A BIT FARTHER WEST...WHERE DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE ACCENTUATED
BY WEAK MID- LEVEL RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW WILL TAP INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE
AND WORK WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE AND AN APPROACHING
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AS 700 MB
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS AND GOOD
MIXING IS EXPECTED. WITH THE WARMER 700 MB TEMPS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THIS MAY ACT AS A CAP IN THAT REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...SO THE MID- LEVEL CAP WILL ERODE...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO EASTERN ZONES.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT COMBINING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DAYTIME
HEATING...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE...INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...SO HIGH
TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY TO REFLECT THIS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SO DECREASED POPS. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP
TO KBIL TO KSHR LINE THROUGH 23Z...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 55 KT AND LARGE
HAIL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER KMLS...KBHK AND EKALAKA
THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE
FROM MVFR TO LIFR. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID-
AFTERNOON WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO RED LODGE LINE AND EAST OF A KMLS
TO BROADUS LINE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN
ROUTES TUESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/094 054/074 049/075 050/085 055/076 048/070 046/071
21/B 21/N 11/B 12/T 22/T 33/T 21/B
LVM 053/087 046/070 040/073 042/080 046/072 042/065 038/066
43/T 42/W 11/B 12/T 23/T 43/T 32/W
HDN 063/097 054/076 049/076 049/087 053/079 049/073 046/073
21/B 11/B 12/T 12/T 22/T 33/T 21/B
MLS 069/099 061/079 053/077 052/087 058/080 053/074 050/071
22/T 21/N 12/T 22/T 22/T 33/T 21/B
4BQ 064/095 059/077 052/076 051/087 056/082 050/075 049/071
22/T 21/N 33/T 22/T 22/T 32/T 21/B
BHK 062/093 060/078 051/073 051/081 057/080 050/072 049/068
22/T 21/N 24/T 32/T 21/B 33/T 21/N
SHR 058/092 053/074 047/073 047/084 051/079 047/070 044/069
21/N 11/B 12/T 12/T 22/T 33/T 21/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
943 AM MDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
WEAK CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF BILLINGS AS OF 15
UTC IS RACING NORTHEAST AROUND 45 KT...SO WE HAVE EXTENDED SOME 20
PERCENT POPS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE ROUNDUP AREA PRIOR TO 18 UTC. THE
BILLINGS AREA COULD CATCH A BRIEF SHOWER TOO BASED ON RECENT RADAR
TRENDS. THIS EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
MODEST DIVERGENCE AT 250-HPA PER RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THE
MAIN IDEA OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT...
WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANGE BEING TO INCREASE HIGHS SLIGHTLY. IF NOT
FOR THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THIS MORNING...WE WOULD HAVE PUSHED THEM
EVEN MORE INTO THE MID 90S F ON THE PLAINS...THOUGH THAT MAY STILL
BE ATTAINED GIVEN MIXING TO 700 HPA OR MORE. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER
THE AREA WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL IF ANY
STORMS DO GET GOING. DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 F SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR
1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH WEAKENING OF THE CAP FOR SCATTERED STORM FORMATION.
WE WILL HAVE ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK WIND SHEAR AND STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL HAIL
OR WIND AT SEVERE LEVELS. THE 12 UTC NAM...00 UTC 4 KM WRF-NMM...
AND RECENT RAP MODELS ALL SUPPORT THIS IDEA IN THEIR QPF OUTPUT.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME MODEL OUTPUT
LIKE THE HRRR DOES SIMULATE A FEW STORMS AROUND BROADUS BY 00 UTC.
WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN THAT AREA IN THE EVENING...BUT A
MID-LEVEL CAP SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY MAY BE MINIMAL. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TWO SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER W MT WED MORNING AND WILL LIFT N DURING THE DAY BRINGING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA. DESPITE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...THE AIRMASS LOOKED DRY SO HAVE REMOVED MOST OF THE POPS.
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIN AROUND THIS LOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW...INTO THE AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE SE WED NIGHT SO HAD POPS IN THIS AREA. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON THU WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER SE MT WHERE THE MODELS PAINTED SOME QPF. ON THU
NIGHT...CONFINED POPS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA UNDER THE BEST
MOISTURE.
UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
SECOND LOW ON FRI. THIS FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SW FLOW OVER THE AREA
UNTIL SUN WHEN THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. CONTINUED A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN INCREASED POPS
INTO SUN AS THE SYSTEM MOVED INTO THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL NE
OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT LEAVING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MON NIGHT. CONTINUED LOW POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
MADE SMALL TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS DURING THE PERIOD. EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEPT ON FRI WHEN READINGS WILL BE IN THE 80S
DUE TO GOOD MIXING AND A WARM AIRMASS. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ROUTES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 18Z WILL BE FROM GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY EAST TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF ROSEBUD COUNTY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM A ROUNDUP TO KBIL TO NE
BIG HORNS LINE W THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 55 KT AND LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL
BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL
SPREAD FURTHER EAST DURING THE EVENING AS WELL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER OVER KMLS...KBHK AND EKALAKA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 063/093 054/074 051/073 050/084 054/076 050/073
2/T 21/B 20/N 02/W 12/W 23/T 33/W
LVM 087 053/087 046/072 040/073 041/081 046/072 045/069
4/T 44/T 32/W 02/W 12/W 23/T 33/W
HDN 094 061/096 054/076 052/074 050/085 054/079 051/076
1/B 21/B 10/N 12/W 22/W 22/T 32/W
MLS 092 066/098 061/079 055/075 054/086 058/080 055/077
1/B 22/T 20/N 13/W 32/T 22/T 32/W
4BQ 093 063/095 059/077 054/075 052/086 055/082 052/078
1/U 12/T 20/N 33/W 22/T 22/T 32/W
BHK 088 062/090 060/078 054/069 054/078 056/080 051/074
1/U 22/T 21/N 24/W 32/T 22/T 32/W
SHR 089 058/092 053/074 050/071 047/082 051/079 050/073
1/B 21/N 10/B 22/W 12/W 22/T 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
732 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
A LOOK AT THE MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM DNR AND LBF ALONG WITH THE
HRRR SUGGESTED GIVING A BUMP TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPS TODAY. JUST A
COUPLE OF DEGREES AT MOST IN SOME AREAS. SO A NEW FCST IS OUT.
A RECORD HIGH COULD BE TIED AT NORTH PLATTE 94F.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...ERN WY...NWRN KS OR THE NEB PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR SOLN SUGGESTED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN COLO AND WRN KS LATE THIS AFTN AROUND 22Z.
THESE STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...COULD DRIFT NORTH INTO SWRN OR
WRN NEB. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS WELL AS DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z INDICATED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER UTAH AND COLORADO WITH THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
ALSO...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN OVER KANSAS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
EDGED INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA...WHICH SAW A DIFFERENCE
IN DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING ON THE
COOLER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ONTO THE WESTERN US COAST TODAY. THIS WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PUSHING THE WARM AIR UP INTO MONTANA AND
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EAST...KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER ITS INFLUENCE WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. AND WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH STAYING SOUTH
OF THE AREA...DON/T EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE MUCH TODAY SO HAVE
LOWERED THOSE VALUES /KEEPING THEM IN THE 50S THROUGH THE DAY/.
LOCATIONS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA COULD SEE
FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST. ALTHOUGH DON/T EXPECT TOO MUCH OF AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY BECOME
BREEZY. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA AND WITH THE CURRENT STORM TRACK...WOULD BRING THAT
ACTIVITY ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING...BELIEVE THAT WILL CUT THIS ACTIVITY OFF AND SHOULDN/T
SEE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
DO HAVE CHANCES FOR STORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK PV ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH
THE WEST COAST TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN
RESPONSE THINK THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT OVER THE
PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO
CAUSE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. THIS ENERGY ALOFT MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SO EXPANDED CHANCES INTO AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION...AND WITH MODELS STRUGGLING TO PICK UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY LATELY /AND CURRENT RUNS NOT PRODUCING MUCH QPF/ JUST
CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW.
TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR...WITH MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WELL
NORTH INTO MONTANA AS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AGAIN...COULD GET UPSLOPE FLOW
AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD GET SOME HIGH BASED STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION...THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/UTAH SO COULD SEE
SOME EXTRA IMPULSES THROUGH THE FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE /WHICH THE
ECMWF IS ACTUALLY HINTING AT FOR TUESDAY EVENING.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATIONS THAT THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENERGY TO THE WEST WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD MEAN HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE ISN/T A
GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT SO HAVEN/T
MADE MUCH CHANGES IN RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER DID
LOWER CHANCES A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE STAYS WELL IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED...HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
THE 20C TO 27C 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. ALSO...THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE SHOWN THE AREA REACHING
MAXIMUM WARMING POTENTIAL AND WITH LITTLE PRECIP AND CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAYS DON/T SEE THAT CHANGING. SO UPPER 80S AND 90S
LOOK LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A BIT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
IN THE 80S MOST DAYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AS THIS OCCURS...WILL LIKELY SEE
NIGHTLY MCS/S PUSHING OVER THE RIDGE. THE CURRENT TRACK LOOKS TO
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE RIDGE
MAY FLATTEN ENOUGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA. GOOD UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SO WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STORM TRACK
WILL BE NORTH SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. THEN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRYING TO LIFT THE MAIN
UPPER LOW SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS COULD BRING ABOUT A FEW COOLER DAYS...HOWEVER THE
WEST COAST TROUGH LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG SO NOT ANTICIPATING A
PATTERN SWITCH AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...ERN WY OR THE NEB PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...COULD DRIFT EAST
INTO WRN NEB. OTHERWISE VFR ALL AREAS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
631 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...ERN WY...NWRN KS OR THE NEB PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR SOLN SUGGESTED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN COLO AND WRN KS LATE THIS AFTN AROUND 22Z.
THESE STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...COULD DRIFT NORTH INTO SWRN OR
WRN NEB. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS WELL AS DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z INDICATED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER UTAH AND COLORADO WITH THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
ALSO...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN OVER KANSAS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
EDGED INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA...WHICH SAW A DIFFERENCE
IN DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING ON THE
COOLER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ONTO THE WESTERN US COAST TODAY. THIS WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PUSHING THE WARM AIR UP INTO MONTANA AND
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EAST...KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER ITS INFLUENCE WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. AND WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH STAYING SOUTH
OF THE AREA...DON/T EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE MUCH TODAY SO HAVE
LOWERED THOSE VALUES /KEEPING THEM IN THE 50S THROUGH THE DAY/.
LOCATIONS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA COULD SEE
FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST. ALTHOUGH DON/T EXPECT TOO MUCH OF AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY BECOME
BREEZY. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA AND WITH THE CURRENT STORM TRACK...WOULD BRING THAT
ACTIVITY ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING...BELIEVE THAT WILL CUT THIS ACTIVITY OFF AND SHOULDN/T
SEE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
DO HAVE CHANCES FOR STORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK PV ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH
THE WEST COAST TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN
RESPONSE THINK THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT OVER THE
PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO
CAUSE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. THIS ENERGY ALOFT MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SO EXPANDED CHANCES INTO AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION...AND WITH MODELS STRUGGLING TO PICK UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY LATELY /AND CURRENT RUNS NOT PRODUCING MUCH QPF/ JUST
CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW.
TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR...WITH MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WELL
NORTH INTO MONTANA AS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AGAIN...COULD GET UPSLOPE FLOW
AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD GET SOME HIGH BASED STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION...THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/UTAH SO COULD SEE
SOME EXTRA IMPULSES THROUGH THE FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE /WHICH THE
ECMWF IS ACTUALLY HINTING AT FOR TUESDAY EVENING.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATIONS THAT THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENERGY TO THE WEST WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD MEAN HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE ISN/T A
GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT SO HAVEN/T
MADE MUCH CHANGES IN RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER DID
LOWER CHANCES A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE STAYS WELL IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED...HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
THE 20C TO 27C 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. ALSO...THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE SHOWN THE AREA REACHING
MAXIMUM WARMING POTENTIAL AND WITH LITTLE PRECIP AND CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAYS DON/T SEE THAT CHANGING. SO UPPER 80S AND 90S
LOOK LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A BIT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
IN THE 80S MOST DAYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AS THIS OCCURS...WILL LIKELY SEE
NIGHTLY MCS/S PUSHING OVER THE RIDGE. THE CURRENT TRACK LOOKS TO
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE RIDGE
MAY FLATTEN ENOUGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA. GOOD UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SO WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STORM TRACK
WILL BE NORTH SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. THEN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRYING TO LIFT THE MAIN
UPPER LOW SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS COULD BRING ABOUT A FEW COOLER DAYS...HOWEVER THE
WEST COAST TROUGH LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG SO NOT ANTICIPATING A
PATTERN SWITCH AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...ERN WY OR THE NEB PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...COULD DRIFT EAST
INTO WRN NEB. OTHERWISE VFR ALL AREAS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1103 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND BEGINS ON
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM TUESDAY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLIER
CONVECTION IN MHX CWA HAS REACHED THE ILM CWA. HRRR INDICATE
CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF WEDNESDAY...
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE ILM CWA. NAM AND HRRR
IDENTIFY AN AREA OF MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC SCALE UVVS JUST SOUTH OF
THE ILM CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS FROM
AN UPPER VORT PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER NE STATES LOW...WILL
AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NC. THE ILM CWA IS BASICALLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE 2
AREAS OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND WILL GEAR POPS TOWARD THE LOWER
SIDE OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY. MODELS...IE HRRR...INDICATE
CONVECTION ENCROACHING ACROSS THE FA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
DAYBREAK WED. IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD TO THE ILM CWA FROM CENTRAL NC AFTER DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM TUESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS COLD FRONT BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A
STRONG OMEGA BLOCK OVER CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP H/5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SLOWLY DROPS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP IN THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL
BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. FRONT WILL WAVE BACK NORTH AT
TIMES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SUPPORT. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES SHOWS BEST
CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO BE LOW LEVEL AND INSTABILITY TO BE
LIMITED. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL ALSO MEAN LITTLE OR NO
THUNDER DURING THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
P/W VALUES WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY...ON
THE ORDER OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL SEE UPPER IMPULSES
MOVING OVERHEAD...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH...SO
TAKEN ALL TOGETHER EXPECT THURSDAY WILL BE DRYER WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL BE AGAIN MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM TUESDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY AND NOW APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF LAST FEW FORECASTS IN LOWERING THE POP FOR FRIDAY
MORNING. RIDGING SURFACE-ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH MONDAY. RESULT WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BY SATURDAY AND LIKELY REMAINING 1-3 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE AS A RESULT OF THE
RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY...WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MOISTURE
RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT STILL BELOW
20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS THE ILM/LBT TERMINALS BUT ARE DISSIPATING. AN
UPPER IMPULSE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT WHICH WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ON A FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE MODERATE SHOWERY TYPE PRECIPITATION FROM
FLO-MYR SOUTH...WITH MORE OF A STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN OCCURRING NORTH
NORTH OF THAT LINE. THERE IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
CEILING/VISIBILITY FORECAST IN THE TAFS. IN GENERAL PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP AT FLO/LBT AFTER 04-05Z...BUT DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS DO NOT EXPECT ANY IFR
TO OCCUR. AS RAIN DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z AND SPREADS NORTHEAST...MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR OCCURRING 08-14Z.
A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE WITH PRECIPITATION ON THE WANE THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDSPEEDS WILL
HOVER AROUND 15 KT...EXCEPT A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER SFC PG WILL AFFECT
THE ILM NC WATERS RESULTING WITH THE OCCASIONAL 20 KT SUSTAINED
WIND. AS FOR SEAS...WIND WAVES WITH 5-6 SECOND DOMINANT PERIODS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. WITH THE
INCLUSION OF A 1 FT OR LESS 12-14 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL...
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR THE ILM SC
WATERS...AND 3 TO 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A SCEC THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP IN A MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 15 KT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS ON
THURSDAY AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM A
3 TO 5 FT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY TO 2 TO 3 FT ON THURSDAY AS WINDS
DECREASE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...BUT A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ONLY
PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS CLOSER...AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STILL LESS
THAN 10 KTS...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1040 PM TUESDAY...HERE ARE THE LATEST TIDE GAGE READINGS FOR
THREE LOCATIONS AND THEIR ANOMALIES COMPARED TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE. DECIDED TO INCLUDE COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY DUE TO A HIGHER
ANOMALY THEN WHAT WAS FORECAST EARLIER. SPECIFICALLY FRONT STREET
OF THE CITY OF GEORGETOWN AND AREAS BORDERING WINYAH BAY. HAVE
ALSO EXTENDED THE CFW...WITH THE LAST COASTAL REGION EXPIRING AT 2
AM WEDNESDAY.
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...PEAKED AT 7.17 FT MLLW AROUND 9 PM.
THIS IS +1.77 FT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 5.40 FT MLLW.
MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 6.00 FT MLLW.
MYRTLE BEACH...PEAKED AT 8.02 FT MLLW AROUND 9 PM.
THIS IS +1.01 FT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 6.81 FT MLLW.
MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 7.50 FT MLLW.
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...LATEST READING OF 5.37 FT MLLW AT 10 PM.
PEAK OF 5.90 FT MLLW IS FORECAST AT MIDNIGHT.
THIS IS +0.66 FT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 5.24 FT MLLW.
MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 6.00 FT MLLW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
206 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MID TO LATE WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING
NEAR-TERM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN TIGHTENED OVERNITE RESULTING WITH
SW-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AS A RESULT...THE MIN TEMP FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER MIN
TEMPS FROM MOS GUIDANCE. WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID OR
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE DISSIPATING
MCS OVER NORTHERN GA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE MUCH STRONGER
MCS OVER WEST TENNESSEE COULD BECOME A NUISANCE TO OUR MOST SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE ILM CWA. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED LOW POPS IN THIS
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...2 PRIMARY FEATURES IMPACT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WEATHER...MCS ENERGY DROPPING SE ALONG AN UPSTREAM THICKNESS RIDGE
AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY. POTENTIAL MCS CONVECTION
APPEARS TARGETED OVER THE FFC/CHS FORECAST AREA JUST SOUTH OF OUR
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POP VALUES IN THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY APPEAR WARRANTED...FAVORED OVER SC. SPC HAS PAINTED A
SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST SOUTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...TIMED NEARLY WITH PEAK HEATING.
IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SE OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INLAND...TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY ALONG
THE COAST. COLUMN MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SCANT BY THIS TIME AND
POP VALUES WERE HELD IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH A
SHOWER COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE.
MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. COOLER TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. MIN TEMPS
MAY BE REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY NIGHT WITH DEBRIS OR CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY
A 59-67 DEGREE RANGE...MILDEST SOUTH COAST AND COOLEST NORTHERN
INTERIOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT TROUGINESS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL MAKE BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES BE THE MAIN CHARACTERISTIC OF
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN STALLED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WELL...AND THIS COULD SERVE
AS A SOURCE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY HOLD TRUE
SHOULD ANY OF THE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA INDUCE A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODELS FINALLY BACKING AWAY FROM
THIS IDEA NOW HOWEVER AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A MINOR ROLE
IN THE FORECAST AT BEST. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME
VERY FLAT SURFACE WAVES RIPPLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THESE LOWS
REMAIN QUITE FLAT SINCE THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER SHORTWAVES
WED. THURSDAYS SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE TRAVELING OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE
HIGH AND MAY ONLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. THE LAST BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD COME THROUGH ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT AGREEING WHETHER ITS THE LAST TO CROSS
THE LANDMASS OR THE FIRST TO DIVE SOUTH OFF THE COAST AS THE MEAN
TROUGH IS ALREADY IN A STATE OF LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST. BARRING
THIS TIMING QUIBBLE THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RISING HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST FOR A QUICK RETURN TO
CLIMO TEMPS OR ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS. A MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL TURN WESTERLY
AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTER DAYBREAK
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE FRONT DIPS SOUTHWARD
UNDERNEATH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO COVERAGE...SO WILL GO WITH VCTS AT THIS
TIME. SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...GUSTY AT TIMES BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS EARLY MORNING NEAR-TERM
UPDATE IS TO RAISE WIND SPEEDS A BIT ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES
NEAR CAPE FEAR WHERE THE OCEAN CREST PIER WIND GAUGE IS REPORTING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS CURRENTLY. THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE
WILL OBVIOUSLY REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT A
FOOT LOWER THAN FORECASTS...BUT THIS SEAS WILL PROBABLY BUILD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE WATERS BETWEEN
SURF CITY NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING DUE TO THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A LOW LEVEL JET. LATEST HRRR SFC WIND
FIELD ILLUSTRATES THIS NICELY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
OCCASIONALLY 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ILM NC WATERS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT FOR
THE ILM NC WATERS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 5 TO 7 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NO WIND AND SEA HAZARDS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.
TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES OVER SC...THUS IT SEEMS THE SOUTH COAST
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A TSTM. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE
OVER THE WATERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO N
AND NE TUESDAY. WINDS HOWEVER LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY OR EVEN
CAUTIONARY SPEEDS. SEAS PRIMARILY CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT S-SW
CHOP MIXED WITH WEAK ESE-SE SWELL. AGAIN MAIN HAZARD...TSTMS OVER
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT. WITH NW STEERING FLOW/STORM MOTION
ANY SEA BREEZE ERUPTIONS COULD FEASIBLY APPROACH THE INNER WATERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
DUE TO FLAT AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL BACK THE OTHERWISE E/NE WINDS SLIGHTLY OVER NRN ZONES AND MORE
NOTICEABLY OVER SRN WATERS WHERE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT MAY BE
INTRODUCED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD A NE WIND WILL CONTINUE
AS THE FRONT SITS OFF TO THE SOUTH. SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
COMPRISED OF WIND WAVES AS OPPOSED TO SWELLS. WITH WINDS GENERALLY
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 2 TO 3
FT...OCCASIONALLY 4 FT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS/EASTERNMOST REACHES
OF FCST AREA. ON FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD SAG FURTHER SOUTH IN A
WEAKENING STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO OOZE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND/SEAS WILL ABATE BY
APPROXIMATELY 5KT/1FT RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA/DCH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
148 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER LOW
THEN SLOWLY MOVES AWAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE MAINLY FAR WESTERN
KY ZONES WITH APPROACHING PRECIP MOVING SE ACROSS OHIO. STILL NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AMOUNTS...WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING
SEVERAL SITES TO THE W/NW REPORTING RAIN BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE
ANYWHERE NEARBY YET...WITH HIGH LCL/S AND QUICK MOVEMENT. WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED THUNDER FROM FCST AS IT APPEARS AN ABS STABLE
LAYER EXISTS AROUND 600MB- 500MB PER LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS AND 12Z
WILMINGTON RAOB...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO
AROUND 15KFT. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP BY 1-3 DEGREES AREAWIDE
PER CURRENT OBS.
1030 AM UPDATE...QUESTIONS SURROUNDING POPS MAINLY ACROSS LOWLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD TODAY. CONVECTIVE
AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH AND
PARTICULARLY SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT COINCIDE THE
BEST. LATEST NAM AND PREVIOUS RUC POINT SOUNDINGS HOWEVER BOTH
INDICATED AN ABSOLULTELY STABLE LAYER AROUND 600MB-500MB
WHICH...EVEN WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WOULD HAVE EFFECTIVELY
CAPPED DEVELOPMENT AROUND 15KFT PLUS OR MINUS. THIS WITH HIGH
LCL/S AROUND 7KFT AND STORM MOVEMENT AROUND 30-35KTS ALL WERE
LENDING DOUBT TO ANY ONE POINT/SITE RECEIVING ANYTHING
MEASUREABLE. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS HAVE BACKED OFF THE
CAPPING LAYER SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TALLER DEVELOPMENT
AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS IN PLACE WHERE THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION...HAVE INCLUDED POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST TO
INCLUDE MAINLY THE KY COUNTIIES PER LATEST DATA AND ONGOING SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME. WITH REGARD
TO MOUNTAIN POPS...ALSO DID INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS
MAINLY NE HIGH TERRAIN.
PREV DISCN...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PASSING WELL S OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING MAINLY DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE. HEIGHTS DO LOWER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
MOVES SE AND OFFSHORE...AND A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W FROM IT MOVES
S...AND CROSSES TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
N AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE AFTERNOON WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL COOLING. AM CONCERNED FRONT
COULD HELP FOCUS CONVECTION OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THAT THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT DISTINGUISHES TODAY FROM RECENT
DAYS SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE WV LOWLANDS AS WELL. WRFS ARE
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON A ROUGHLY E-W LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVING S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SO
MAY FARTHER REFINE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS COULD BE VERY
NEARLY AN RLX-CENTRIC EVENT AS THE SHOWERS DO NOT POP UP UNTIL THE
FORCING IS S OF TE PBZ AREA...DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE GETTING
S OF THE AREA...AND DO NOT OCCUR MUCH FARTHER W THAN THE OHO RIVER.
BLENDED IN ADJMET TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE NARROW GUIDANCE
SPREAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS MORE OR LESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY.
MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING INDIVIDUAL WAVES CAUGHT UP
IN FLOW...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL
FILTER INTO FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE A
SLIGHT UPSWING IN POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH. CHARACTER OF PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...FORMING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. PULLED BACK SLIGHTLY ON SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS PRECIP DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DIURNAL
IN NATURE.
FOR TEMPS...SEEING SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...
AND VALUES ARE LOOK IN LINE WITH THE COOL PATTERN. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED BC GUIDANCE VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR THE LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ON A SLOW
RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR STRATOCU-ALTOCU PATTERN CONTINUES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BENEATH THE COOL AIR
THAT REMAINS ALOFT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF AREA AND
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HELPS TO FOCUS THESE
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT SHOULD
BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF. FLOW WILL BECOME N TO NW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
TODAY...PARTICULARLY AT THE HIGHER SITES...AND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FOG/REDUCED
VSBYS AT EKN MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1039 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER LOW
THEN SLOWLY MOVES AWAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...QUESTIONS SURROUNDING POPS MAINLY ACROSS LOWLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD TODAY. CONVECTIVE
AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH AND
PARTICULARLY SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT COINCIDE THE
BEST. LATEST NAM AND PREVIOUS RUC POINT SOUNDINGS HOWEVER BOTH
INDICATED AN ABSOLULTELY STABLE LAYER AROUND 600MB-500MB
WHICH...EVEN WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WOULD HAVE EFFECTIVELY
CAPPED DEVELOPMENT AROUND 15KFT PLUS OR MINUS. THIS WITH HIGH
LCL/S AROUND 7KFT AND STORM MOVEMENT AROUND 30-35KTS ALL WERE
LENDING DOUBT TO ANY ONE POINT/SITE RECEIVING ANYTHING
MEASUREABLE. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS HAVE BACKED OFF THE
CAPPING LAYER SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TALLER DEVELOPMENT
AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS IN PLACE WHERE THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION...HAVE INCLUDED POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST TO
INCLUDE MAINLY THE KY COUNTIIES PER LATEST DATA AND ONGOING SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME. WITH REGARD
TO MOUNTAIN POPS...ALSO DID INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS
MAINLY NE HIGH TERRAIN.
PREV DISCN...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PASSING WELL S OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING MAINLY DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE. HEIGHTS DO LOWER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
MOVES SE AND OFFSHORE...AND A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W FROM IT MOVES
S...AND CROSSES TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
N AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE AFTERNOON WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL COOLING. AM CONCERNED FRONT
COULD HELP FOCUS CONVECTION OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THAT THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT DISTINGUISHES TODAY FROM RECENT
DAYS SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE WV LOWLANDS AS WELL. WRFS ARE
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON A ROUGHLY E-W LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVING S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SO
MAY FARTHER REFINE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS COULD BE VERY
NEARLY AN RLX-CENTRIC EVENT AS THE SHOWERS DO NOT POP UP UNTIL THE
FORCING IS S OF TE PBZ AREA...DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE GETTING
S OF THE AREA...AND DO NOT OCCUR MUCH FARTHER W THAN THE OHO RIVER.
BLENDED IN ADJMET TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE NARROW GUIDANCE
SPREAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS MORE OR LESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY.
MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING INDIVIDUAL WAVES CAUGHT UP
IN FLOW...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL
FILTER INTO FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE A
SLIGHT UPSWING IN POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH. CHARACTER OF PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...FORMING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. PULLED BACK SLIGHTLY ON SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS PRECIP DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DIURNAL
IN NATURE.
FOR TEMPS...SEEING SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...
AND VALUES ARE LOOK IN LINE WITH THE COOL PATTERN. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED BC GUIDANCE VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR THE LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ON A SLOW
RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR STRATOCU-ALTOCU PATTERN CONTINUES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BENEATH THE COOL AIR
THAT REMAINS ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT SLIPPING S THROUGH THE
AREA MAY HELP TO FOCUS THESE SHOWERS...AND A THUNDERSHOWER IS ALSO
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE W TO SW FLOW OF LATE WILL BECOME N TO
NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE GUSTY EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY.
MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL VEER TO THE N THIS EVENING AND
THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EKN MAY NOT DROP INTO MVFR WITH FOG
TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
132 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA WILL
DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH
PRESSURE RESULTING IN ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS.
NORTH WINDS WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...BRINGING IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CLOUDS ARE DECREASING OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA. THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN
THE CLE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS ARE IN THAT AREA...SO
BECAUSE OF THAT LEFT A 20 POP IN FOR THAT AREA.
FOR NORTHWEST OHIO SOME CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR...SO
ADDED THAT.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY EXCEPT IN NW PA WHERE THEY ARE
LIKELY TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE ONCE THE VORT MAX SINKS SOUTHWEST. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AGAIN
NOT EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE. THE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN MORE OVER
THE REGION BY TUE AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR PLEASANT WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S EAST TO THE LOWER 80S WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. WE WILL BE IN A LULL BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND THE LINGERING LOW ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LOW CHANCES. REMOVED THE PREDOMINATE THUNDER MENTION
FROM ERI/YNG. SREF INDICATING A LOWER CHANCE THAN YESTERDAY FOR TS
AND FOR NOW CHANCES TOO LOW TO PUT INTO THE TAF. LIGHTER /8-12
KTS/ NORTHERLY FLOW AND NOT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS.
VFR...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS
NW PA/NE OH.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NY WILL BE ABSORBED BY LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ONTO THE LAKE
TONIGHT IT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE. AM SLIGHTLY CONCERNED
THAT THE WESTERLY WINDS MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING LONGER FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. GENERALLY
FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. IF IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED BY LATER SHIFTS
IT WILL LIKELY ONLY GO THROUGH 4 AM.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SURFACE GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY TO BRING BACK SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
NORTHEAST FLOW THIS TIME WOULD MAKE THE WESTERN BASIN AT LEAST
CHOPPY. BY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN INTO CONTROL
INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
939 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED FROM CAPE COD TO THE CATSKILLS
OF EASTERN NEW YORK STATE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND REMAIN PARKED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
MIDWEST WITH CLEARING AND WARMER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW IS ELONGATED EAST/WEST FROM SRN NEW YORK TO THE BOSTON
AREAS THIS MORNING. ONE CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
KBGM THIS AM...AND ON TRACK TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG 500 MB VORT MAX WILL BE
DROPPING SWD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN TODAY HELPING TO
FOCUS THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS /AND SCTD LOW-TOPPED TSRA/ NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW STRATUS/STRATO CU IS FOUND UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS OUR
NRN MTNS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND NRLY
FLOW/COLD ADVECTION.
THIS THICKER/LAYERED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN. MORE SPOKES
OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MEAGER CAPE PER LATEST RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN LESS-INTENSE SHOWERS AND LESS AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THAN WE
EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY.
WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO MUCH WEAKER /THAN YESTERDAYS 4-6KFT 45KT
FLOW/ WITH ONLY 20-25KTS OUT OF THE NORTH EXPECTED FROM THE SFC TO
CLOUD TOPS THIS AFTN/EVENING. STILL...SCT SHRA AND EVEN ISOLD TSRA
ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE AREA. BETTER/MORE- WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE EAST - CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. MAXES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO OR A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S NUMBERS WITH THE
CLOUD COVERAGE AND WEAK COLD TO NEUTRAL AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...SOME WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE NE-SW
AS THE MEAN MID-LEVEL WIND VEERS OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ALONG THE NE COAST
FOR THE PERIOD...AND NEARLY IDENTICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH
24HR CYCLE. SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVE. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN A
BIT FOR EACH OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS FAR ENOUGH AWAY THE
AIR WILL MODIFY/WARM JUST SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. BUT THESE WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL AT FIRST AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRI...BUT ACCOMPANYING LARGE TROUGH
WILL KEEP COOL NW FLOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER INTO THU AS BACK EDGE OF TROUGH
/AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK SHORTWAVE/ PUSH THROUGH. TEMPS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY FRI AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNINGS WILL BE CHILLY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS
FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FOR SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN PENN /AND CURRENTLY AFFECTING KBFD/
WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WHERE A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT SWD OUT OF THE
CATSKILL AND NRN POCONO REGION.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
FRI...AM VALLEY FOG AND IFR POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
752 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND PARK OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
MIDWEST WITH CLEARING AND WARMER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW IS ELONGATED BUT ONE CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE
OVER BGM THIS AM...AND ON TRACK TO CONSOLIDATE OVER CAPE COD THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG VORT MAX HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF THE STATE
ALREADY AND FEW CLOUDS FOUND IN THE SRN COS. BUT LOW STRATUS IS
FOUND UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND FORMING/SPREADING SWRD WITH THE
HELP OF TOPO LIFT AND NRLY FLOW/COLD ADVECTION WILL COVER THE NRN
HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
DOWN...BUT MORE SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE DOWN THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MEAGER CAPE PER LATEST RUC AND NAM
SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS-INTENSE SHOWERS AND LESS
AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THAN ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO MUCH
WEAKER WITH ONLY 20-25KTS OUT OF THE NORTH EXPECTED FROM THE SFC
TO CLOUD TOPS THIS AFTN/EVENING. STILL...SCT SHRA AND EVEN ISOLD
TSRA ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE AREA. BETTER/MORE-WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE EAST - CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. MAXES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S NUMBERS WITH
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND WEAK COLD TO NEUTRAL AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...SOME WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE NE-SW
AS THE MEAN MID-LEVEL WIND VEERS OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ALONG THE NE COAST
FOR THE PERIOD...AND NEARLY IDENTICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH
24HR CYCLE. SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVE. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN A
BIT FOR EACH OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS FAR ENOUGH AWAY THE
AIR WILL MODIFY/WARM JUST SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. BUT THESE WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL AT FIRST AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRI...BUT ACCOMPANYING LARGE TROUGH
WILL KEEP COOL NW FLOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER INTO THU AS BACK EDGE OF TROUGH
/AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK SHORTWAVE/ PUSH THROUGH. TEMPS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY FRI AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNINGS WILL BE CHILLY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS
FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FOR SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
FRI...AM VALLEY FOG AND IFR POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
507 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND PARK OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
MIDWEST WITH CLEARING AND WARMER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW IS ELONGATED BUT ONE CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE
OVER BGM THIS AM...AND ON TRACK TO CONSOLIDATE OVER CAPE COD THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG VORT MAX HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF THE STATE
ALREADY AND FEW CLOUDS FOUND IN THE SRN COS. BUT LOW STRATUS IS
FOUND UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND FORMING/SPREADING SWRD WITH THE
HELP OF TOPO LIFT AND NRLY FLOW/COLD ADVECTION WILL COVER THE NRN
HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
DOWN...BUT MORE SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE DOWN THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MEAGER CAPE PER LATEST RUC AND NAM
SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS-INTENSE SHOWERS AND LESS
AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THAN ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO MUCH
WEAKER WITH ONLY 20-25KTS OUT OF THE NORTH EXPECTED FROM THE SFC
TO CLOUD TOPS THIS AFTN/EVENING. STILL...SCT SHRA AND EVEN ISOLD
TSRA ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE AREA. BETTER/MORE-WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE EAST - CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. MAXES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S NUMBERS WITH
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND WEAK COLD TO NEUTRAL AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...SOME WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE NE-SW
AS THE MEAN MID-LEVEL WIND VEERS OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ALONG THE NE COAST
FOR THE PERIOD...AND NEARLY IDENTICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH
24HR CYCLE. SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVE. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN A
BIT FOR EACH OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS FAR ENOUGH AWAY THE
AIR WILL MODIFY/WARM JUST SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. BUT THESE WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL AT FIRST AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRI...BUT ACCOMPANYING LARGE TROUGH
WILL KEEP COOL NW FLOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER INTO THU AS BACK EDGE OF TROUGH
/AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK SHORTWAVE/ PUSH THROUGH. TEMPS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY FRI AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNINGS WILL BE CHILLY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS
FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FOR SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTIONS AND WILL
SHORTLY PASS EAST OF KMDT AND KLNS...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 07Z. WITH MOIST WNW UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AIRFIELDS OF KBFD AND KJST
OVERNIGHT. IF WINDS SLACKEN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR FOG CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS AS WELL
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS...EXCEPT FOR KIPT WHERE
MVFR FOG AND CIGS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED.
SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
MOUNTAINS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
FRI...AM VALLEY FOG AND IFR POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
113 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
COMPLEX PATTERN NEXT 12-24 HRS. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP INTO THE
MID-STATE LATER TODAY...THEN MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF THE PICTURE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. ML/UL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL
BRING STRONG IMPULSE DOWN TOWARD 00Z HELPING TO REFIRE ISO-SCT
SHWRS/STORMS...WHICH WILL LAST 06-09Z. PASSING STORMS WILL DROP
VSBYS BUT CEILINGS LIKELY TO STAY LARGELY ABV 3KFT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG MAY BRING VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR RANGES AS WELL. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFT 12Z TUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID
STATE THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR SOUTH. NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE SO THAT ACTIVITY IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT. PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALREADY BEGINNING TO RETURN ACROSS NW
AREAS OF THE CWA. AREAS ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AS THE MORNING GOES ON. THUS...WE SHOULD
HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 80S OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS.
OTW...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY FROM
IL/IN. PROGS TAKE THE MOISTURE ACROSS MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN BY
TONIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE. SO...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL REDUCE MORNING POPS TO ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON
POTENTIAL. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ALLOW FOR
A LITTLE MORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON PARTIAL CLEARING.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRATIFORM RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ASSOCIATED WITH MCS OVER N MS/N AL. NORTH OF THE PRECIP...PATCHY
FOG AFFECTING CKV/CSV THIS MORNING..BUT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MCS OVER NORTHERN
AL/MS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH ALL RAIN EXITING MID TN
EARLY THIS MORNING. CLEARING THEN WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE I-24 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MENTION VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPO TSRA AT CKV/BNA
22-02Z...ALTHOUGH THIS TIMING REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS WEAK FRONT
MOVES BACK SOUTHWARD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM (THRU WED)...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MID TN EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGHER DEWPTS HELPED DRIVE A QLCS WIND DAMAGE EVENT
IN W TN/N MS LAST EVE...THAT MOVED INTO N AL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SYS
HAS DISSIPATED.
RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS FM NE OK TO W TN...MOVG
SOUTHEAST ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERRY-LEWIS-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STALLED FRONT WL SHIFT NORTH WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO FORM MID-LATE AFTN. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER WL BE WEST OF I-65.
SFC LOW PRES/COLD FRONT WL MOVE SOUTH THIS EVE. CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WL CONTINUE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH OF TN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE AREA WL START TO DRY OUT.
SFC HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BACK
TO MID TN TUE-WED.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
DRY PATTERN WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARMING TREND IS IN
STORE WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 W OF PLAT NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS WL BE IN THE
60S.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
957 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID
STATE THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR SOUTH. NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE SO THAT ACTIVITY IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT. PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALREADY BEGINNING TO RETURN ACROSS NW
AREAS OF THE CWA. AREAS ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AS THE MORNING GOES ON. THUS...WE SHOULD
HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 80S OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS.
OTW...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY FROM
IL/IN. PROGS TAKE THE MOISTURE ACROSS MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN BY
TONIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE. SO...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL REDUCE MORNING POPS TO ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON
POTENTIAL. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ALLOW FOR
A LITTLE MORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON PARTIAL CLEARING.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRATIFORM RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ASSOCIATED WITH MCS OVER N MS/N AL. NORTH OF THE PRECIP...PATCHY
FOG AFFECTING CKV/CSV THIS MORNING..BUT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MCS OVER NORTHERN
AL/MS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH ALL RAIN EXITING MID TN
EARLY THIS MORNING. CLEARING THEN WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE I-24 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MENTION VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPO TSRA AT CKV/BNA
22-02Z...ALTHOUGH THIS TIMING REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS WEAK FRONT
MOVES BACK SOUTHWARD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM (THRU WED)...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MID TN EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGHER DEWPTS HELPED DRIVE A QLCS WIND DAMAGE EVENT
IN W TN/N MS LAST EVE...THAT MOVED INTO N AL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SYS
HAS DISSIPATED.
RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS FM NE OK TO W TN...MOVG
SOUTHEAST ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERRY-LEWIS-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STALLED FRONT WL SHIFT NORTH WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO FORM MID-LATE AFTN. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER WL BE WEST OF I-65.
SFC LOW PRES/COLD FRONT WL MOVE SOUTH THIS EVE. CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WL CONTINUE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH OF TN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE AREA WL START TO DRY OUT.
SFC HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BACK
TO MID TN TUE-WED.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
DRY PATTERN WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARMING TREND IS IN
STORE WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 W OF PLAT NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS WL BE IN THE
60S.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
634 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRATIFORM RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ASSOCIATED WITH MCS OVER N MS/N AL. NORTH OF THE PRECIP...PATCHY
FOG AFFECTING CKV/CSV THIS MORNING..BUT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MCS OVER NORTHERN
AL/MS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH ALL RAIN EXITING MID TN
EARLY THIS MORNING. CLEARING THEN WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE I-24 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MENTION VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPO TSRA AT CKV/BNA
22-02Z...ALTHOUGH THIS TIMING REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS WEAK FRONT
MOVES BACK SOUTHWARD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM (THRU WED)...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MID TN EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGHER DEWPTS HELPED DRIVE A QLCS WIND DAMAGE EVENT
IN W TN/N MS LAST EVE...THAT MOVED INTO N AL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SYS
HAS DISSIPATED.
RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS FM NE OK TO W TN...MOVG
SOUTHEAST ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERRY-LEWIS-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STALLED FRONT WL SHIFT NORTH WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO FORM MID-LATE AFTN. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER WL BE WEST OF I-65.
SFC LOW PRES/COLD FRONT WL MOVE SOUTH THIS EVE. CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WL CONTINUE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH OF TN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE AREA WL START TO DRY OUT.
SFC HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BACK
TO MID TN TUE-WED.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
DRY PATTERN WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARMING TREND IS IN
STORE WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 W OF PLAT NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS WL BE IN THE
60S.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
946 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONVECTION THIS EVENING HAS BEEN ALONG AN OLD THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 10. NAM AND RUC DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FROM BIG SPRING TO LUBBOCK...THEN EASTWARD
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. WITH SOME WEAK RETURN ON RADAR IN THIS
AREA AND A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING NORTH...WILL MAINTAIN
POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT IN THE BIG COUNTRY...AND SLIGHT POPS
SOUTH.
04
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SONORA TO BRADY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD ALONG AN OLD THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING. HAVE TEMPO OR VICINITY THUNDER AT KSOA AND KJCT THROUGH
2Z. KSJT WILL SEE INTERSECTING THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ALSO THROUGH 2Z...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED... MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHY STRATUS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE
AROUND KJCT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
04
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS.
SCATTERED TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ISOLD TSTMS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...BESIDES
HOT AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH UPPER 90S AT JUNCTION. A WEAK DISSIPATING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WAS JUST SOUTH OF A MERTZON TO SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD
LINE. THE CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...ISOLD TO WDLY SCATTERED TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS
ACROSS MAINLY THE BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT A SMALL MCS MAY MOVE INTO THIS AREA MAINLY AFTER 03Z WED.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FOR WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
A FEW WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
TSTMS. HOWEVER...HAVE RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TO
LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COALESCE AROUND A SOLUTION BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR LUBBOCK SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. WITH THAT
IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY...AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE HAVE AN UNDERSTANDABLY HARD TIME RESOLVING
EXACTLY WHAT PATH THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL TAKE AND HOW FAST.
FOR THAT REASON...COULD NOT JUSTIFY MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA REMAINS THAT SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR THIS MID LEVEL LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES SOUTH TOWARDS OUR NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARDS REMAIN TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RICH
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...IN ADDITION TO LOW
END SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE DEFINED
PATH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA...EFFECTIVELY ENDING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA
WIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES REMAINING OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE ALREADY GONE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN GENERAL THAN MEX GUIDANCE...BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE WARMED EVEN FURTHER IF 850MB
TEMPERATURES PROVE TO BE AS WARM AS MODELS ARE PREDICTING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 69 89 70 84 67 / 30 50 60 50 30
SAN ANGELO 69 93 70 87 68 / 20 30 40 30 20
JUNCTION 69 93 70 88 69 / 20 30 40 30 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/04/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1158 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A MIX OF
MVFR/VFR FROM 09Z TO 14Z...WITH ENSUING VFR ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN
15Z AND 17Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO
INFILTRATE AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY LOW CLD
DECK DVLPMENT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH COVERAGE AND CIGS AT
MVFR LEVELS. WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...DENSE CI FROM CONVECTION OVER
OLD MEX. LOW CLOUD DECK WITH MVFR CIGS MAY DVLP AT KLRD AROUND
SUNRISE MON MRNG. MVFR CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY
MON WITH VFR PREVAILING MON AFTN ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SE WINDS TONIGHT AS SRLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. MODERATE AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SE WINDS DAYLIGHT HRS MON. TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN OVER NE MEXICO LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HENCE...PUT
VCTS IN LAREDO TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEBILITATE AND ERODE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AS THEY APPROACH THE MEXICAN STATE OF
TAMAULIPAS. THE CAP IS MARKEDLY MORE PRONOUNCED NEAR THE BORDER AS
THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH 700 MB TEMPS A WARM
12C. DID LEAVE A 10 PERCENT SILENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RIO
GRANDE WITH HRRR SHOWING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING BETWEEN
LAREDO AND RIO BRAVO AROUND MIDNIGHT. DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS...BY NUDGING UP MINIMUM TEMPS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH THICK LAYER OF CIRROFORM CLOUDS IN CONCERT WITH STRATUS
DEVELOPING AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ONGOING FCST HAS ONGOING ELEMENT TRENDS GOING VERY WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR ALL TERMINALS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THEN MIX OF
MVFR/VFR THRU MID/LATE MRNG MON...FOLLOWED BY VFR ALL TERMINALS
MON AFTN. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO SKIRT ACROSS KCRP/KVCT/KALI
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY LOW CLD DECK DVLPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH
COVERAGE AND CIGS AT MVFR LEVELS. KLRD TO XPRIENCE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING WITH DENSE CI POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION OVER OLD
MEX. LOW CLOUD DECK WITH MVFR CIGS MAY DVLP AT KLRD AROUND SUNRISE
MON MRNG. MVFR CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY MON WITH
VFR PREVAILING MON AFTN ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS
TONIGHT AS SRLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. MODERATE AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SE WINDS DAYLIGHT HRS MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 91 75 92 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
VICTORIA 74 93 74 94 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
LAREDO 79 102 77 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 75 97 74 96 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 80 89 79 88 78 / 10 10 10 20 10
COTULLA 77 99 74 98 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 95 76 94 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 90 79 88 77 / 10 10 10 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SC/70...AVIATION
TB/78...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...corrected
NWS SPOKANE WA
304 PM PDT Mon Jun 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and
early this evening over the Idaho Panhandle and over the eastern
third of Washington. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and very
heavy rain will be possible between the hours of 4 PM and 8 PM in
places like Spokane, Lewiston, Pullman, Sandpoint, and Kellogg. A
strong cold front will sweep through the region overnight bringing
moderate to heavy rain to much of the Inland Northwest.
&&
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH IDAHO AND THE
EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...
This evening: A rare combination of deep moisture, instability,
frontal lift and wind shear has elevated the potential for severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening. We will be
monitoring the Idaho Panhandle and adjacent counties of eastern
Washington through this evening closely. Damaging wind gusts to 70
mph, hail to the size of quarters, and torrential rain will be a
possibility. There is a potential for a tornado or two given the
strong shear parameters. The added low level helicity in the
vicinity of the front combined with the relatively low Lifted
Condensation Level (LCL) heights could enhance the tornado
potential. However, forecasting tornadoes in this part of the
world is a tricky endeavor at best.
As of 2 PM, a strong frontal zone was draped near the
Washington/Idaho border. The axis of highest instability was from
Hells Canyon through St Maries to around Clark Fork in the north
Idaho Panhandle. The RUC model depicts surface based CAPE values
as high as 1400J/KG in the central and southern Idaho Panhandle.
There was very little surface based instability west of Priest
Lake, Davenport and Ritzville. Thick clouds and showers have kept
a lid on surface warming today. There may be a slight westward
push of the surface front through early evening as the surface low
swings into western Montana this evening, but the chances for
severe weather west of Lincoln and Adams counties will be very
low this evening.
As of 2 PM, cells were developing in eastern Oregon, but did not
appear to have tapped surface based instability. If these storms
can become surface based, they will have the potential to become
severe quickly. Mean 700-300mb flow of 50-60kts will push storms
to the north very quickly. Residents of the Idaho Panhandle and
far eastern Washington should be advised that storms will be
moving VERY fast (upwards of 50mph). Storms will also be moving
from south to north, a somewhat atypical direction.
Overnight: Deepening low pressure over eastern Montana will likely
bring rounds of moderate to heavy rain to central and eastern
Washington this evening through Tuesday morning. Upper level jet
coupling within the increasingly negatively tilted upper trough
suggest widespread rain amounts exceeding a half inch overnight. A
flash flood watch has been issued through early Tuesday morning
for the potential for heavy downpours with strong thunderstorms
over the Idaho Panhandle this evening, and the likelihood of
localized heavy rain associated with post-frontal precipitation
overnight.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Much cooler and showery weather will follow
the passage of the cold front tonight. Snow levels will plunge to
5000 feet in the Cascades by Tuesday morning. Accumulation on
roadways in the Cascades is not likely given the time of year, but
slushy mountain accumulations on grassy surfaces could occur. By
Tuesday night into Wednesday, snow levels in the Cascades and
Idaho Panhandle will fall as low as 4000-4500 feet. Lingering
deformation and unstable upslope flow in the the mountains of the
Idaho Panhandle suggest some slushy accumulations in the mountains
around Schweitzer, Lookout and Silver Mountains. /GKoch
Wednesday through Saturday...Progressive weather pattern continues
with jet stream positioning in very close proximity to Eastern
Washington and Northern Idaho during this time interval. Too low
pressure areas dumbbell round one another with the first, a cool
pool and associated trof influencing earlier periods lifting further
to the north and northwest into British Columbia while the second
low makes an approach in a northwest to southeast trajectory out
from the Gulf of Alaska. The second system making the northwest
to southeast approach has a well wrapped occluded frontal
zone/baroclinic band that is tied into a moderate subtropical
moisture tap that can currently be traced passing over the
Northern Aleutian Islands down and over to the west pacific. An
old typhoon, 04W Mawar, was absorbed into the extreme west end of
this long subtropical moisture tap yesterday. This transfer of
equatorial/tropical moisture and energy northward into the mid
latitudes will likely cause more spread in model solutions and
lower confidence some as far as speed and timing of system
passages in this part of the forecast...but for now will go with
current model solutions which take the comma head feature and
sweep its wet wrapped front through Eastern Washington and
Northern Idaho Thursday night into Friday before dropping the
bigger part of the low itself later Friday into Friday night. So
again cool conditionally unstable air-mass on the north side of
the jet stream continues to influence sensible weather for the
area so some mention of showery precipitation is maintained for
all locations. Such a dynamic forecast solution merits forecast
temps on the cool side of what would be considered normal for this
time of year along with robust and gusty winds at times due to the
earlier mentioned prolonged close proximity positioning of the jet
stream. /Pelatti
Saturday through Monday...Models are in good agreement of a closed
low over North Idaho Saturday afternoon closely moving east into
Sunday. With the low overhead on Saturday lots of shower activity
is expected with a slight chance of thunderstorms over Eastern
WA/N Idaho a cool and unstable air mass over the area. As the low
pulls away from the area Sunday an area of wrap around moisture
will rotate around the back side of the low into extreme Eastern
Washington and North Idaho. This will result in showers continuing
while the East Slopes of the Cascades and much of North Central
Washington should be seeing a drying trend with just a chance for
mountain showers. A weak ridge then will move over the area Monday
with dry conditions expected although a few mountain showers can
not be ruled out.
Temperatures will be well be 10 to 15 degrees below normal on
Saturday then gradually modifying into Monday as the weak ridge
moves in. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A series of thunderstorm cells are moving through the
region. Some thunderstorms have the potential to be severe with
winds gusts of up to 70 MPH and hail up to one inch in diamter. The
storms will move out of the region during the evening hours. Winds
are expected to increase as the frontal system pushes through the
area. The higher wind gusts will be at the eastern Washington sites.
The region can expect to have lingering rainshowers and a occasional
marginal ceiling/visibility through the rest of the TAF period.
/JDC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 48 53 45 60 37 65 / 100 90 50 30 20 30
Coeur d`Alene 50 53 42 53 37 64 / 100 90 60 40 30 30
Pullman 48 51 40 56 36 61 / 100 80 50 20 10 30
Lewiston 52 56 46 63 43 68 / 100 80 40 10 10 20
Colville 55 59 48 57 38 62 / 100 90 60 60 30 30
Sandpoint 53 53 42 50 37 62 / 100 100 70 70 40 30
Kellogg 47 50 41 51 37 59 / 100 100 70 60 20 30
Moses Lake 53 64 46 70 42 70 / 90 60 20 10 0 20
Wenatchee 51 61 46 68 46 69 / 80 50 20 0 0 30
Omak 52 63 47 64 39 69 / 90 70 30 20 20 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Central Panhandle
Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and
Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
SEVERE THUNDERStorm Watch until Midnight PDT tonight for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis
and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau.
SEVERE THUNDERStorm Watch until Midnight PDT tonight for Lower
Garfield and Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains-
Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
125 PM PDT Mon Jun 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and
early this evening over the Idaho Panhandle and over the eastern
third of Washington. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and very
heavy rain will be possible between the hours of 4 PM and 8 PM in
places like Spokane, Lewiston, Pullman, Sandpoint, and Kellogg. A
strong cold front will sweep through the region overnight bringing
moderate to heavy rain to much of the Inland Northwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Spokane, Whitman, Garfield, and Asotin counties in
Washington. In Idaho, the severe thunderstorm watch includes
Lewis, Nez Perce, Benewah, Kootenai, Bonner, Latah, Boundary, and
Shoshone counties. A flash flood watch will also be issued shortly
for much of Eastern Washington and North Idaho from 5 PM this
evening through Tuesday morning. Please see previous discussion
below for more details.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A strong stationary front lies across the state of
Washington this morning. West of the front, places like Moses
Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak will experience off and on showers this
afternoon through Tuesday morning as well as low stratus. East of
the front, Spokane, Pullman, Sandpoint, Lewiston and Kellogg are
under the gun for thunderstorms. Storms will have the potential to
produce wind gusts to 70 mph, hail to the size of quarters and
extremely heavy rain. Storms will likely move from south to north
at speeds of 45-55 mph. The strongest convection will likely occur
in the 00z-05z time frame. Low clouds, stratus, and moderate post-
frontal rain will occur overnight over eastern Washington and
north Idaho, including the Spokane area. /GKoch
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM PDT Mon Jun 4 2012/
Damaging wind gusts, large hail and locally heavy rain will be
possible this evening. Today has a rare combination of deep layer
moisture, strong frontal forcing, strong wind shear and deep layer
instability. The best chance for severe storms will be in the 4pm-
8pm time frame.
The forecast has been updated for today to attempt to fine tune
the timing of showers and thunderstorms. There are differences
between the 12z NAM and 12z GFS with the timing of the
initiation of convection over the Idaho Panhandle and the eastern
third of Washington. The HRRR (Rapid Refresh Model) sides with the
slower development of the NAM. I think that mid level capping will
likely hold thunderstorm activity over the Spokane Forecast area
at bay until 3pm or later. The cap will probably break over the
high terrain of central and northeast Oregon by mid afternoon. The
deepening mid level trough over Oregon combined with surface
heating over the elevated terrain should allow for initiation of
deep convection. In all likelihood a tight baroclinic band will be
in place along the Washington/Idaho border due to a stalled front.
The baroclinic band will be re-enforced through the day by
sunshine east of the front and cloud/showers west of it. Low level
thermal gradients like this can be highways for storms to track
along. The 15z HRRR suggests convection that develops over
northeast Oregon will track along this low level thermal gradient
this evening. The 700mb-300mb winds are progged to be 50kts this
evening, which is a good first guess for storm speed. Storm
direction will be south to north.
12z NAM Bulk shear values approaching 70kts between 0-6km (very
high values) are certainly supportive of supercell thunderstorms.
It will be interesting to see how storms evolve. The HRRR develops
a long-lived bow echo out of convection it develops over north
central Oregon. As far as threats, I am most concerned about
damaging wind gusts at this time. The fast storm motion
(anticipated 50kts) combined with the strong shear and steep low
level lapse rates suggest gusts to 70mph will be possible. Large
hail will be a threat, especially with storms with supercell
structures. If storms can maintain supercell structures through
the evening, there could even be a supercell tornado threat.
Supercells tracking along the south to north front in eastern
Washington may have the added low level helicity and a lower
lifted condensation level (LCL). These parameters could contribute
to a slightly higher threat for a supercell tornado in the Inland
Northwest.
Residents of the Inland Northwest should be alert this evening. No
need to panic, but system has the potential to produce storms that
are stronger than what we usually experience. And the fast motion
of these storms could catch folks unprepared. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 73 48 53 45 60 37 / 40 100 90 50 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 76 50 53 42 53 37 / 40 100 90 60 40 30
Pullman 76 48 51 40 56 36 / 50 100 80 50 20 10
Lewiston 81 52 56 46 63 43 / 50 100 70 40 10 10
Colville 74 55 59 48 57 38 / 50 100 90 60 60 30
Sandpoint 74 53 53 42 50 37 / 50 100 100 70 70 40
Kellogg 76 47 50 41 51 37 / 50 100 90 70 60 20
Moses Lake 65 53 64 46 70 42 / 80 90 40 20 10 0
Wenatchee 64 51 61 46 68 46 / 90 80 40 20 0 0
Omak 64 52 63 47 64 39 / 90 100 50 30 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flash Flood Watch from 5 PM PDT this afternoon through Tuesday
morning for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-
Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-
Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle.
SEVERE THUNDERStorm Watch until Midnight PDT tonight for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis
and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 5 PM PDT this afternoon through Tuesday
morning for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield
and Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast
Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-
Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau.
SEVERE THUNDERStorm Watch until Midnight PDT tonight for Lower
Garfield and Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains-
Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1208 PM PDT Mon Jun 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and
early this evening over the Idaho Panhandle and over the eastern
third of Washington. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and very
heavy rain will be possible between the hours of 4 PM and 8 PM in
places like Spokane, Lewiston, Pullman, Sandpoint, and Kellogg. A
strong cold front will sweep through the region overnight bringing
moderate to heavy rain to much of the Inland Northwest.
&&
...Severe thunderstorms possible this evening over the Idaho
Panhandle and eastern third of Washington...
.DISCUSSION...
Damaging wind gusts, large hail and locally heavy rain will be
possible this evening. Today has a rare combination of deep layer
moisture, strong frontal forcing, strong wind shear and deep layer
instability. The best chance for severe storms will be in the 4pm-
8pm time frame.
The forecast has been updated for today to attempt to fine tune
the timing of showers and thunderstorms. There are differences
between the 12z NAM and 12z GFS with the timing of the
initiation of convection over the Idaho Panhandle and the eastern
third of Washington. The HRRR (Rapid Refresh Model) sides with the
slower development of the NAM. I think that mid level capping will
likely hold thunderstorm activity over the Spokane Forecast area
at bay until 3pm or later. The cap will probably break over the
high terrain of central and northeast Oregon by mid afternoon. The
deepening mid level trough over Oregon combined with surface
heating over the elevated terrain should allow for initiation of
deep convection. In all likelihood a tight baroclinic band will be
in place along the Washington/Idaho border due to a stalled front.
The baroclinic band will be re-enforced through the day by
sunshine east of the front and cloud/showers west of it. Low level
thermal gradients like this can be highways for storms to track
along. The 15z HRRR suggests convection that develops over
northeast Oregon will track along this low level thermal gradient
this evening. The 700mb-300mb winds are progged to be 50kts this
evening, which is a good first guess for storm speed. Storm
direction will be south to north.
12z NAM Bulk shear values approaching 70kts between 0-6km (very
high values) are certainly supportive of supercell thunderstorms.
It will be interesting to see how storms evolve. The HRRR develops
a long-lived bow echo out of convection it develops over north
central Oregon. As far as threats, I am most concerned about
damaging wind gusts at this time. The fast storm motion
(anticipated 50kts) combined with the strong shear and steep low
level lapse rates suggest gusts to 70mph will be possible. Large
hail will be a threat, especially with storms with supercell
structures. If storms can maintain supercell structures through
the evening, there could even be a supercell tornado threat.
Supercells tracking along the south to north front in eastern
Washington may have the added low level helicity and a lower
lifted condensation level (LCL). These parameters could contribute
to a slightly higher threat for a supercell tornado in the Inland
Northwest.
Residents of the Inland Northwest should be alert this evening. No
need to panic, but system has the potential to produce storms that
are stronger than what we usually experience. And the fast motion
of these storms could catch folks unprepared. /GKoch
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A strong stationary front lies across the state of
Washington this morning. West of the front, places like Moses
Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak will experience off and on showers this
afternoon through Tuesday morning as well as low stratus. East of
the front, Spokane, Pullman, Sandpoint, Lewiston and Kellogg are
under the gun for thunderstorms. Storms will have the potential to
produce wind gusts to 70 mph, hail to the size of quarters and
extremely heavy rain. Storms will likely move from south to north
at speeds of 45-55 mph. The strongest convection will likely occur
in the 00z-05z time frame. Low clouds, stratus, and moderate post-
frontal rain will occur overnight over eastern Washington and
north Idaho, including the Spokane area. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 73 48 53 45 60 37 / 40 100 90 50 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 76 50 53 42 53 37 / 40 100 90 60 40 30
Pullman 76 48 51 40 56 36 / 50 100 80 50 20 10
Lewiston 81 52 56 46 63 43 / 50 100 70 40 10 10
Colville 74 55 59 48 59 38 / 50 100 90 60 60 30
Sandpoint 74 53 53 42 51 37 / 50 100 100 70 70 40
Kellogg 76 47 50 41 51 37 / 50 100 90 70 60 20
Moses Lake 65 53 64 46 70 42 / 80 90 40 20 10 0
Wenatchee 64 51 61 46 68 46 / 90 80 40 20 0 0
Omak 64 52 63 47 64 39 / 90 100 50 30 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1212 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
IOWA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN AREA OF 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS NOTED ON THE
03.03Z RAP.
03.00Z MODELS OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
ONLY DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF WEAK FORCING SIGNALS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. RAP ALSO INDICATES THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. DID PLACE
A LOWER END PROBABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH 15Z TO COVER THE
DEPARTING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LATER TODAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME VERY WEAK
850-700MB QG CONVERGENCE WILL INTERACT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF
500 J/KG-1000 J/KG TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID CONTINUE CHANCES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER THAT.
DEPENDING UP HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY AND HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FOG POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT VORTICITY IS MORE CHANNELED WITH THIS FEATURE. ONCE
AGAIN MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES ACROSS WISCONSIN.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE SOME WEAK CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA AND THUS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
HIGH THEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR DRY WEATHER. AS THE
RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE RIDGE WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN IT
OUT...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOWARDS THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF IT WILL
RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY BY SUNDAY FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
1212 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN VCSH
MENTION AT KLSE AND LEAVE OUT AT KRST DUE TO CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WEST OF THE RIVER. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THUNDER THREAT AS WELL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ONLY SHOWING
500-800J/KG. BELIEVE THUNDER WILL REMAIN ISOLD AND MAINLY EAST OF
KLSE. LOOK FOR THE CONVECTION TO SIMMER DOWN/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. CONCERN THEN ARISES FOR FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING/LIGHT WINDS AND A DAMP
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SHOWERS OCCURRED. MAY BE ENOUGH WIND
ALOFT TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED SOME...BUT FEEL THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY VCNTY OF KLSE.
WILL INCLUDE BCFG IN THE KLSE TAF IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KRST. SCATTERED
-SHRA ACTIVITY AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON.
BESIDES THE BCFG AT KLSE...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS/VIS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...RABERDING
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
643 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
IOWA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN AREA OF 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS NOTED ON THE
03.03Z RAP.
03.00Z MODELS OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
ONLY DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF WEAK FORCING SIGNALS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. RAP ALSO INDICATES THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. DID PLACE
A LOWER END PROBABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH 15Z TO COVER THE
DEPARTING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LATER TODAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME VERY WEAK
850-700MB QG CONVERGENCE WILL INTERACT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF
500 J/KG-1000 J/KG TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID CONTINUE CHANCES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER THAT.
DEPENDING UP HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY AND HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FOG POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT VORTICITY IS MORE CHANNELED WITH THIS FEATURE. ONCE
AGAIN MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES ACROSS WISCONSIN.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE SOME WEAK CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA AND THUS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
HIGH THEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR DRY WEATHER. AS THE
RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE RIDGE WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN IT
OUT...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOWARDS THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF IT WILL
RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY BY SUNDAY FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
642 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE IS A BIT BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
DUE TO THIS...IT WAS INCLUDED IN THE KLSE TAF AND LEFT OUT OF THE
KRST TAF. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING...EXPECT
THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...RABERDING
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
IOWA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN AREA OF 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS NOTED ON THE
03.03Z RAP.
03.00Z MODELS OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
ONLY DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF WEAK FORCING SIGNALS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. RAP ALSO INDICATES THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. DID PLACE
A LOWER END PROBABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH 15Z TO COVER THE
DEPARTING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LATER TODAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME VERY WEAK
850-700MB QG CONVERGENCE WILL INTERACT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF
500 J/KG-1000 J/KG TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID CONTINUE CHANCES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER THAT.
DEPENDING UP HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY AND HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FOG POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT VORTICITY IS MORE CHANNELED WITH THIS FEATURE. ONCE
AGAIN MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES ACROSS WISCONSIN.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE SOME WEAK CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA AND THUS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
HIGH THEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR DRY WEATHER. AS THE
RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE RIDGE WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN IT
OUT...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOWARDS THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF IT WILL
RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY BY SUNDAY FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IOWA. THE LOW HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND THIS EVENING AND HAS ONLY MOVED FROM THE
VICINITY OF KSUX TO NEAR KDNS. THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW AND THE 04.00Z
RUN CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SLOW SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT THROUGH MONDAY.
AS THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE OF 2
TO 3 UBAR/S ON THE 305K WILL SINK SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AS
WILL THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850 MB. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUT
AN END TO THE SHOWERS BUT WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HOLD ON TO
VCSH FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD AS WELL SHOWING A MORE SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. WILL ALSO HOLD ON TO THE VFR CEILING WITH THESE CLOUDS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ANY
FOG AT EITHER SITE...BUT WITH KRST BEING CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON TO A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY WITH
SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE MORE DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM
AGAIN LATE MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WELL BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...RABERDING
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY THE
NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NEARLY IDENTICAL. HAVING STATED THAT,
THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS TYPICAL MESOSCALE
BIAS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER POPS FROM DAY TO DAY. ONE INTERESTING
NOTE TOO IS THAT THE HRRR WHICH IS A NORMALLY VERY USEFUL SHORT
TERM MODEL HAS APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED BADLY THIS EVENING AND
SHOWS A LARGE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE W CST JUST NORTH OF
APF AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE OKEE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GOFMEX AT THIS TIME, THIS
SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FACTORS OF THAT TYPE OF AN EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THEREFORE DO NOT PLACE MUCH EMPHASIS ON ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY.
THERE IS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF THE
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK KEEPING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE FL STRAITS. THESE
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FAVOR A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND A
CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR S FL WITH
CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ABOUT THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IN THE MAIN THREE MODELS IS ON FRIDAY WHERE THE 00Z GFS
AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEE BY
LATE FRIDAY AND THE NAM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVE THESE DIFFERENCES, NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER
POPS FOR FRIDAY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT
COVERAGE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE OVER S FL ON
SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SCT POPS. FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO
APPARENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE GFS MOVES
THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD
TEND TO GIVE S FL A QUITE DIFFERENT WX PATTERN WITH THE GFS
PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRYING PATTERN.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCT ACTIVITY UNTIL THERE IS A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS. THERE IS
AN INDICATION OF A SHORT FUSED WIND SURGE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
HEIGHTS. THE FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 87 74 / 30 30 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 88 76 / 20 20 40 40
MIAMI 88 79 89 76 / 20 20 40 40
NAPLES 86 76 86 75 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...14/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
326 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH IA LOCATED ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE EASTERN TROUGH. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY EXISTS ACRS CENTRAL IA WHERE 850MB
CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
THE PCPN HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY
ON THE WESTERN SIDE AWAY FROM THE DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS ISOLD
CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD
THUNDER TO A SIGNIFICANT SECTION OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. THE
FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AS 850MB RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO EASTERN IA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE
EAST TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE WILL SEE INTERMITTENT OPPORTUNITIES
FOR A FEW POPCORN STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...GENERATED BY RIPPLES IN
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MID-LEVEL RIPPLES RIDING OVER THE
APPROACHING RIDGE. PINNING DOWN THESE SUBTLE FEATURES IS VERY
DIFFICULT...HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY RESULTING STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SO HAVE
TRENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. AT ANY RATE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD COINCIDENT WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY. HAVE ONCE AGAIN NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THE MOS GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING
THE DEGREE OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND RECENT CLIMATOLOGY/MODEL BIASES.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING AS A LARGE 500 MB
GYRE MOVES ROUGHLY EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. BY
SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA OR
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING AROUND IT
LIKE SPOKES ON A WHEEL. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
OUR CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREIN LIES THE ISSUE
AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT IN WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS OUR AREA.
THIS WILL AFFECT ALL FORECAST FIELDS MOST NOTABLY TEMPERATURES AND
POPS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST...THE EC MUCH SLOWER...AND
THE GEM IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE NOT MADE
TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ALLBLEND POPULATION FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER THE GFS DOES SEEM TOO FAST WITH ITS FRONTAL
PROGRESSION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK AND CONFINED THEM TO OUR
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO REFLECT
THIS. ALSO REMOVED POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE SLOW EC HAS THE
FRONT AND PRECIP CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY THEN. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK WE CONTINUE TO SEE A MORE ZONAL 500 MB PATTERN ON THE
HORIZON...WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF TO MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...06/06Z
WEAK WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
EVENING. EAST WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN NEAR
12KT WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS THIS EVENING. THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
EXPECT THAT AMBIENT WIND WILL HANG ON TO ABOUT 10-11KTS OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED IN ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS
AND VFR CIGS...BKN080 TO BKN110 TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AS FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL FOLLOW
INTO NORTHWEST IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
KFOD AFT 18Z BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCE DUE TO
COVERAGE AND LOW CHANCES. AREA MAY SEE SOME HZ BETWEEN 11 AND 14Z
PRIOR TO DIURNAL WARMING. WINDS WILL AGAIN MIX TO 9 TO 11KTS BY 16Z
WITH MINIMAL GUSTS ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA AND RDG IN THE PLAINS.
UPR MI IS LOCATED ON THE CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS WITHIN THE NNW
FLOW...WITH ACCOMPANYING N-S ORIENTED H85 TROF STRETCHING FM NW
ONTARIO ACRS THE WRN CWA INTO WI BTWN ACYC OVER NW MN AND ANOTHER IN
ONTARIO JUST NE OF LK SUP. SINCE THIS TROF IS ALSO UNDER AN AXIS OF
HIER MID LVL MSTR/STEEPER LAPSE RATES...THERE HAD BEEN A FEW -SHRA
INTO THIS MRNG UNDER AREA OF PERSISTENT H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC BEST
HIGHLIGHTED BY RECENT ECMWF RUNS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MORE SCT
-SHRA HAVE DVLPD OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE. MORE NMRS CU ARE ALSO PRESENT OVER
THE E WHERE A BAND OF MID CLD DRIFTED WWD INTO THAT AREA FM ONTARIO.
BUT RATHER STABLE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB SO FAR E OF UPR
JET AXIS WL LIKELY INHIBIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY SHRA THAT
MIGHT DVLP IN THIS AREA BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT ANY -SHRA THAT DVLP
THIS AFTN TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVNG AS BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HINTS UPR JET AXIS WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE W AND RESULT IN WEAKENING
H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/INCRSG UPR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LK SUP
CLOSER TO MORE WELL DEFINED SHRTWV STRADDLING THE NW ONTARIO/MN
BORDER. WITH SFC HI PRES/LGT WINDS OVER UPR MI TNGT...EXPECT MIN
TEMPS TO FALL AT LEAST TO OR A FEW DEGREES BLO LO TEMPS THE READINGS
THIS MRNG AS PWAT IS FCST TO BE A BIT LOWER AT 6/12Z THAN THIS MRNG.
SINCE SOME FOG DID FORM THIS MRNG WHERE RA HAD FALLEN YDAY AFTN...
OPTED TO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE
THERE IS A BETTER CHC OF SOME -SHRA THIS AFTN AND CONDITIONS FOR
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT.
WED...12Z GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING TRACK OF
SHRTWV NOW IN NW ONTARIO ARPCHG NRN MN. THE NAM INDICATES THIS
DISTURBANCE/ACCOMPANYING H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC WL TRACK A BIT FARTHER
TO THE E THAN THE GFS/CNDN...WHICH SHOW FOCUS OF FORCING HOLDING
MAINLY IN NW WI/MN. GIVEN THE UPR BLOCK OVER SE CANADA AND SHRTWVS
NOTED ON WV IMAGERY SHIFTING WWD THRU QUEBEC...FEEL THE FARTHER W
GFS/CNDN ARE PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK. IN FACT...THE CNDN MODEL
HINTS SOME -SHRA MIGHT IMPACT THE FAR E ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES NOW IN QUEBEC. SO TENDED TO RESTRICT POPS FOR
INSTABILITY AFTN -SHRA ON WED TO THE FAR W AND THE E...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE CNTRL UNDER ACYC AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
UPPER MI WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIRLY BENIGN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. WITH LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUING...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO BE PREDOMINANT IN THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DIURNAL CONVECTION DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. BEST FORCING REMAINS IN THE INTERIOR WEST OF
UPPER MI...SO IF ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING THIS IDEA AS WELL. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THESE SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY SET UP
IF THEY DO HAPPEN...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES. SUPPORT
PREVIOUS FORECASTS DECISION TO LEAVE OUT MENTION TSRA DUE TO LOW CAPE
VALUES /LESS THAN 300 J/KG/ AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES /5 TO 6 C/KM/.
LOOKING AT TOTAL TOTALS...STRONG STABLE LAYER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS
WELL AS UPPER MI WILL SUPPRESS NEEDED LIFT FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN UPPER MI
FRIDAY...AND TRAVERSING THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND
INCOMING WAA /AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/ WILL CAUSE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH
UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS FOR TIMING OF THIS PRECIP WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE GFS AND GEM BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIP WILL NOT ENTER WESTERN UPPER MI UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT QVECTOR CONV AND WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
COULD MEAN THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA.
AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AND PICK UP SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON /BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
SUSTAINED/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER AIR TO PULL INTO UPPER
MI...WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 15C ON SATURDAY...AND 20+C ON
SUNDAY.
AFTER THE EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA MOVING SE/
COULD ALLOW FOR LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH
UNCERTAIN ON THE EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR PLACEMENT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCES. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD. A LITTLE BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY MAY YIELD ISOLD CONVECTION
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN...BUT AT THIS POINT...THE
POTENTIAL OF PCPN ALONG THE BOUNDARIES NEAR KIWD/KSAW IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
VERY QUIET MARINE PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THU NIGHT. A QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS LK SUPERIOR ON FRI...BRINGING
A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 20 KTS OVER AT LEAST THE EAST HALF. LOOK FOR
A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE TO DOMINATE ON SAT. A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 20
KTS WILL DEVELOP ON SUN UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS HI RETREATING TO THE E AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
322 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND LIFTING NORTH WITH TIME.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS AREA WHERE ANOTHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A NARROW HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN
AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL H85 SOUTHERLY JET OF 50KT TO 55KT
CONTINUES AIDING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ROUGHLY 7.5C/KM SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS AREA...MOVING IT NORTH
AND EXPANDING IT EASTWARD. OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE REMAINS
LOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
HAIL CAPE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE REMAIN DECENTLY HIGH.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO LATER TODAY. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY CREATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH 35KT
TO 40KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.
K-INDICES OF 35 TO 40 ALONG WITH PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES MAY
YIELD HEAVY RAIN AS WELL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BOTH THURSDAY EVENING
LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE
THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE
INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL GENERATE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
GENERATING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE THETA-E GRADIENT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PRIMARILY ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO
KEEP A LID ON AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO BREAK THE CAP SATURDAY EVENING WITH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
EVENT POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DETAILS OF THE AREAL
EXTENT AND TIMING ARE SKETCHY AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE FORECASTED WITH CHANCES OF
MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY AREAWIDE MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AERODROMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS PRECEDING THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME WIND SHEAR INTO FOCUS BETWEEN 10Z-15Z WEDNESDAY
AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM/AVIATION....TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1140 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PERSISTENT STRONG
H85 JET OF 50KT OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NEAR THE SOUTH/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
OVERNIGHT. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE WARM
FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35KT IN THE SOUTHWEST COULD SUPPORT
SOME STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR HAS POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. BASED ON
CURRENT BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADARS...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHWEST BY 06Z LOOKS ON
TRACK. WILL CHANGE UNCERTAINTY WORDING TO AREAL COVERAGE WITH
CURRENT ACTIVITY HEADING NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
AERODROMES THROUGH 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS TO
AVIATION INCLUDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WINDS PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME WIND SHEAR
INTO FOCUS BETWEEN 10Z/5 AM CDT AND 15Z/10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
558 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FM THE CENTRAL GRT LKS IS PROVIDING
M/CLR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING OVR CENTRAL PA. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND RESIDUAL BLYR MSTR/WET SOILS HAS PROMOTED SHALLOW
FOG/STRATUS FORMATION..PARTICULARLY IN THE N-CENTRAL RVR VALLEYS
PER LATEST IR SATL/FOG CHANNEL. SKIES WILL START OFF M/SUNNY
TDY...BUT EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND EXPAND BY
MID-LATE MORNING...AS SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE COMBINES WITH POOL
OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ SPREADING SWD FM
THE LWR LKS. ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE /CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY CROSSING THE LWR LKS AND SRN NEW ENG AT 09Z/ WILL PIVOT
SWD AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND HELP
TO STEEPEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 6.5-7C/KM BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM ARE GENERALLY ON THE SAME
PAGE IN SHOWING CVRG OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
INCREASING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTN HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...MAY
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE GIVEN
BETTER CONFIDENCE. THE WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND ML CAPES
MARGINAL...BUT THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVG...RANGING FM THE MID-UPPER 60S MTNS
TO LOW 70S IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN VLYS. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MINS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY DURING THE AFTN
HOURS THURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THURS NGT. THE LG SCALE MID-UPPER
TROF WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A SCHC OF
AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES. THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION
TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI-ZONAL ORIENTATION ON SAT...AS AN UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS NWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL BE
MODERATING A FEW DEGS WARMER EACH DAY. ALL MDL DATA SUGGESTS A
WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS WILL CROSS THE UPPER GRT LKS
EARLY SAT MORNING AND REACH UPSTATE NY/NEW ENG BY SAT EVE.
CONSENSUS SOLN WOULD KEEP THIS SYS AND ITS ASSOCD IMPACTS
GENERALLY NORTH OF PA...BUT GIVEN SOME SPATIAL MDL DIFFS AND
LOW/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT LONGER
RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH
LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY COURTESY OF A STG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC
COAST. CURRENT MEDIAN GUID BLEND HAS HIGHS PEAKING BTWN 85-90F ON
MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND
ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS.
THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AM IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...CLEARER
SKIES THAN PVS NIGHTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FORMATION OF FOG
AN LOW CIGS AT ALL AIRFIELDS EXCEPT FOR MDT AND LNS. MVFR VSBYS
AND IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
PERSIST TO NEAR DAYBREAK.
STILL SOME CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTN AND AGAIN THURSDAY...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
1038 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
GENERATING SOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
THIS SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS TO MOVE EAST AND INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED POPS OVER THE CWA FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THIS MORNING ARE IN LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE CWA...HIGHS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
HIGHS AROUND 90 OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS FOR TODAY.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ARE STILL COOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
JET OF 30 KNOTS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG OVER THE CWA
TODAY WITH HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
AREA. WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BRIEF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING CELLS. AFTER 00Z, SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST COAST AFTER 14Z. AT KAPF,
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WSW BY 16Z.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY THE
NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NEARLY IDENTICAL. HAVING STATED THAT,
THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS TYPICAL MESOSCALE
BIAS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER POPS FROM DAY TO DAY. ONE INTERESTING
NOTE TOO IS THAT THE HRRR WHICH IS A NORMALLY VERY USEFUL SHORT
TERM MODEL HAS APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED BADLY THIS EVENING AND
SHOWS A LARGE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE W CST JUST NORTH OF
APF AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE OKEE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GOFMEX AT THIS TIME, THIS
SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FACTORS OF THAT TYPE OF AN EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THEREFORE DO NOT PLACE MUCH EMPHASIS ON ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY.
THERE IS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF THE
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK KEEPING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE FL STRAITS. THESE
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FAVOR A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND A
CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR S FL WITH
CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ABOUT THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IN THE MAIN THREE MODELS IS ON FRIDAY WHERE THE 00Z GFS
AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEE BY
LATE FRIDAY AND THE NAM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVE THESE DIFFERENCES, NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER
POPS FOR FRIDAY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT
COVERAGE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE OVER S FL ON
SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SCT POPS. FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO
APPARENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE GFS MOVES
THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD
TEND TO GIVE S FL A QUITE DIFFERENT WX PATTERN WITH THE GFS
PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRYING PATTERN.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCT ACTIVITY UNTIL THERE IS A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH.
MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS. THERE IS
AN INDICATION OF A SHORT FUSED WIND SURGE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
HEIGHTS. THE FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 76 87 74 / 50 30 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 88 76 / 40 20 40 40
MIAMI 89 79 89 76 / 40 20 40 40
NAPLES 87 76 86 75 / 50 20 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...14/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
813 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
AREA. WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BRIEF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING CELLS. AFTER 00Z, SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST COAST AFTER 14Z. AT KAPF,
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WSW BY 16Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY THE
NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NEARLY IDENTICAL. HAVING STATED THAT,
THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS TYPICAL MESOSCALE
BIAS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER POPS FROM DAY TO DAY. ONE INTERESTING
NOTE TOO IS THAT THE HRRR WHICH IS A NORMALLY VERY USEFUL SHORT
TERM MODEL HAS APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED BADLY THIS EVENING AND
SHOWS A LARGE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE W CST JUST NORTH OF
APF AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE OKEE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GOFMEX AT THIS TIME, THIS
SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FACTORS OF THAT TYPE OF AN EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THEREFORE DO NOT PLACE MUCH EMPHASIS ON ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY.
THERE IS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF THE
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK KEEPING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE FL STRAITS. THESE
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FAVOR A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND A
CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR S FL WITH
CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ABOUT THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IN THE MAIN THREE MODELS IS ON FRIDAY WHERE THE 00Z GFS
AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEE BY
LATE FRIDAY AND THE NAM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVE THESE DIFFERENCES, NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER
POPS FOR FRIDAY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT
COVERAGE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE OVER S FL ON
SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SCT POPS. FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO
APPARENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE GFS MOVES
THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD
TEND TO GIVE S FL A QUITE DIFFERENT WX PATTERN WITH THE GFS
PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRYING PATTERN.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCT ACTIVITY UNTIL THERE IS A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH.
MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS. THERE IS
AN INDICATION OF A SHORT FUSED WIND SURGE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
HEIGHTS. THE FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 87 74 / 30 30 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 88 76 / 20 20 40 40
MIAMI 88 79 89 76 / 20 20 40 40
NAPLES 86 76 86 75 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...14/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
637 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH IA LOCATED ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE EASTERN TROUGH. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY EXISTS ACRS CENTRAL IA WHERE 850MB
CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
THE PCPN HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY
ON THE WESTERN SIDE AWAY FROM THE DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS ISOLD
CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD
THUNDER TO A SIGNIFICANT SECTION OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. THE
FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AS 850MB RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO EASTERN IA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE
EAST TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE WILL SEE INTERMITTENT OPPORTUNITIES
FOR A FEW POPCORN STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...GENERATED BY RIPPLES IN
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MID-LEVEL RIPPLES RIDING OVER THE
APPROACHING RIDGE. PINNING DOWN THESE SUBTLE FEATURES IS VERY
DIFFICULT...HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY RESULTING STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SO HAVE
TRENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. AT ANY RATE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD COINCIDENT WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY. HAVE ONCE AGAIN NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THE MOS GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING
THE DEGREE OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND RECENT CLIMATOLOGY/MODEL BIASES.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING AS A LARGE 500 MB
GYRE MOVES ROUGHLY EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. BY
SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA OR
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING AROUND IT
LIKE SPOKES ON A WHEEL. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
OUR CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREIN LIES THE ISSUE
AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT IN WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS OUR AREA.
THIS WILL AFFECT ALL FORECAST FIELDS MOST NOTABLY TEMPERATURES AND
POPS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST...THE EC MUCH SLOWER...AND
THE GEM IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE NOT MADE
TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ALLBLEND POPULATION FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER THE GFS DOES SEEM TOO FAST WITH ITS FRONTAL
PROGRESSION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK AND CONFINED THEM TO OUR
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO REFLECT
THIS. ALSO REMOVED POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE SLOW EC HAS THE
FRONT AND PRECIP CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY THEN. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK WE CONTINUE TO SEE A MORE ZONAL 500 MB PATTERN ON THE
HORIZON...WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF TO MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...06/12Z
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINTAIN DURING
THE MORNING BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME AS FOCUS SHIFTS
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME. VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY EAST OF AN KLWD-KDSM-KMCW LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON BUT WILL RELAX BY EVENING AS MIXING
SUBSIDES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH
ANY THREAT OF PCPN CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN IOWA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM NOVA SCOTIA
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM WEDNESDAY...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTHERN AL. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
INTO PA/MD/VA FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE CREST
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS FAR SW VA AND NW NC AS OF 14Z
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.
AN AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPED LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NC. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WAS INITIATED IN A REGION OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION LAST EVENING. OVERNIGHT STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPED IN THE 295-300K LAYER IN A REGION OF INCREASING DPVA WHICH
ALLOWED THE RAIN SHIELD TO EXPAND AND TO BECOME BRIEFLY HEAVY IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REACHED AROUND 2 INCHES IN
ROWAN COUNTY WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT IN DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES WITH A MORE
GENERAL 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE TRIAD. THESE AMOUNTS
WERE AROUND 1/3 OF THE RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERDONE WITH BOTH THE
00Z AND 06Z NAM AND GFS WHILE THE 03-09Z RUNS OF THE HRRR PICKED UP
ON THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND LARGELY DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL WEAKEN AS THE SHORT WAVE TOUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL TREND
THE FORECAST FROM NUMEROUS SHOWERS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS...A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW..AND LITTLE LOW/MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHEAR VORTICITY AND
WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES TO GIVE WAY TO SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AND MANUALLY EDITED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES FOR A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. -BLAES
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 1 WHERE THE RELATIVE BEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS PROGGED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY:
H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING SSE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE
FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST...AND THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL BE ROUGHLY THE SAME
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO BE 5-10
METERS HIGHER THAN TODAY IN ASSOC/W HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...THOUGH TEMPS
ALOFT ARE ALSO PROGGED TO WARM BY ~1C. AS A RESULT...DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ROUGHLY THE SAME AS TODAY...
WITH ~250 J/KG MLCAPE DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...
ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING AND TEMPS ALOFT DO
NOT MARGINALLY INCREASE AS EXPECTED...SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES AT 20% AND HAVE OMITTED CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN 5-10
METER 1000-850 MB HEIGHT RISES AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IN THE MID/UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...OR 77-82F.
THURSDAY NIGHT:
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY
MAY NEGATE MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOC/W IT. MODEL GUIDANCE AND
HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...AND ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
GIVEN SLIGHT AIRMASS MODIFICATION...EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F...WARMEST SOUTH. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD OF A HOTTER
AND DRIER WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN AND THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE OF CHOICE... ALTHOUGH
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE MODELS WITH THE OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO NUDGE EASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS FRI-SAT...
THEN MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INCLUDING NC THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. RISING HEIGHTS WILL MEAN RISING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY TO A POSITION OVER NC SUNDAY... THEN JUST OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MINIMAL... EXCEPT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY FRI-SAT WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 80-85... INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 82-88 SATURDAY. IT WILL BE HOT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD REACH 87-92. LOWS SHOULD
BE IN THE 60-65 RANGE FRI... MODERATING TO 65-70 SUN-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED QUITE A BIT THE PAST FEW HOURS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PIEDMONT SINCE 07Z...
EXTENDING EAST TO THE TRIANGLE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALREADY
OBSERVED AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED VERY
POORLY THIS MORNING...ALREADY MISSING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HALF INCH
OR MORE OF RAIN FROM HICKORY EAST TO ASHEBORO/SILER CITY. GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN TO PREVAIL AT THE INT/GSO/RDU TERMINALS THROUGH
NOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE FAY/RWI TAF SITES BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN TO EVENTUALLY
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OR SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF CENTRAL NC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR AGAIN BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN USUAL AS MENTIONED
ABOVE.
LOOKING AHEAD:
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...THOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLAES/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
705 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF WILMINGTON. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND FARTHER INLAND WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL DRY OUT ON THURSDAY AND SEASONABLE WARMTH IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT`S ON TRACK.
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW RAIN BLOSSOMING IN SOUTHERN GA/SC AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ACQUIRE A MORE CROSS-FRONTAL COMPONENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. BASED ON RADAR LOOPS AND THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS I`VE
TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT FOR TODAY FROM NEARLY 100 PERCENT IN
GEORGETOWN SC TO ONLY 20 PERCENT IN BENNETTSVILLE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL TURN EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AIDED BY THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK JUST OFF
THE NC COAST.
YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GEORGIA
COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD PUSH EAST AND OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOIST ATLANTIC AIR WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE SURFACE FRONT AND WILL BE
FURTHER LIFTED BY THE FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THIS MORNING SPREADING FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EXTREME
EASTERN NC. OUR FORECAST POPS TODAY RANGE FROM 80-90 PERCENT FROM
KINGSTREE AND GEORGETOWN NORTH THROUGH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTHPORT.
POPS ARE MORE IN THE 50/50 RANGE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH
LESSER POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. UPWARDS OF HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY...WITH A QUARTER INCH
FROM MYRTLE BEACH NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY NC.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER LAND TODAY WITH ABSOLUTELY STABLE
THERMAL PROFILES. RAIN SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY MID-
AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TOPPED OFF BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS OFTEN RESULTS IN A BROKEN DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN THESE TWO
VERTICALLY DISSIMILAR AIRMASSES.
FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW WE`RE EXPECTING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY CRAWL THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. ONCE PRECIP CLEARS OFF THE COAST EXPECT MOST AREAS TO POP
INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS UPPER 70S BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT STILL
POOLING ACROSS MOST OF SE GA AND SC WHILE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS FAR NORTH IT WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO GENERATE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND SO POPS CAPPED
AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE OTHERWISE TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO HIT OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 80. MOISTURE THEN GETS SHUNTED EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY EVENING. EVEN
THOUGH ANOTHER APPRECIABLE VORT MAX WILL STREAK BY EARLY FRIDAY THE
COLUMN WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES.
HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS IT SWINGS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THE LONG TERM WILL BRING
RATHER QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OFF THE COAST. BEING MUCH WEAKER
THAN A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH IT WILL LIKELY LACK THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY OUT OF THE
PLAINS COULD ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AN AREA OF LIFT...COURTESY OF THE JET STREAM...WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WILL RIDE UP THE
COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG WITH THE
JET THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AS
THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY SATURATES THE ENTIRE COLUMN. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...LOWERED SEAS BY ABOUT A FOOT
CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING TREND THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS SHOULD SURGE LATER THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CENTRAL GEORGIA COAST
THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ALONG
THIS FRONT AND MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING IN AREAS WITH AN OPEN EXPOSURE TO NORTHEAST WINDS. A
"SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY AS FRONT
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL LEAVE THE REGION IN A RATHER WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND
THUS VERY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A WEAK HIGH
THOUGH AND RATHER SLOW TO PROGRESS...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS THAT
ONLY VERY SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY QUIET SET OF WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY OFFSHORE BUT IN SO MUCH A
TYPICAL JUNE FASHION WITH A STRONG BERMUDA ANTICYCLONE. THIS WEEKEND
SETUP WILL FIND A WEAKER HIGH CLOSER TO THE COAST KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS CAPPED AT ABOUT 10 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE SW. SMALL WIND WAVES
AND NEGLIGIBLE SWELL ENERGY YIELDING JUST 2 FT PREDOMINANT SEA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WE`RE SEVERAL DAYS PAST THIS
MONTH`S FULL MOON ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL RANGES REMAIN RATHER LARGE.
ONSHORE WINDS ARE HELPING TO BUILD A SMALL TIDAL SURGE AS WELL. THE
LARGEST FACTOR HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE AN UNRESOLVED POSITIVE WATER
LEVEL ANOMALY THAT IS SHOWING UP ALL ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MAINE
TO FLORIDA. THIS FACTOR WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CREATING
YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
SOME DATA FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...
ASTRONOMICAL SURGE + FORECAST WATER FLOOD
LOCATION TIDE ANOMALY LEVEL STAGE
CAPE FEAR RIVER-WILM 5.14 FT +1.00 6.14 FT 5.50 FT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 5.18 FT +1.10 6.28 FT 6.00 FT
MYRTLE BEACH 6.50 FT +0.80 7.60 FT 7.50 FT
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK/MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
631 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF WILMINGTON. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND FARTHER INLAND WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL DRY OUT ON THURSDAY AND SEASONABLE WARMTH IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT`S ON TRACK.
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW RAIN BLOSSOMING IN SOUTHERN GA/SC AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ACQUIRE A MORE CROSS-FRONTAL COMPONENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. BASED ON RADAR LOOPS AND THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS I`VE
TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT FOR TODAY FROM NEARLY 100 PERCENT IN
GEORGETOWN SC TO ONLY 20 PERCENT IN BENNETTSVILLE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL TURN EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AIDED BY THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK JUST OFF
THE NC COAST.
YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GEORGIA
COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD PUSH EAST AND OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOIST ATLANTIC AIR WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE SURFACE FRONT AND WILL BE
FURTHER LIFTED BY THE FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THIS MORNING SPREADING FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EXTREME
EASTERN NC. OUR FORECAST POPS TODAY RANGE FROM 80-90 PERCENT FROM
KINGSTREE AND GEORGETOWN NORTH THROUGH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTHPORT.
POPS ARE MORE IN THE 50/50 RANGE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH
LESSER POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. UPWARDS OF HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY...WITH A QUARTER INCH
FROM MYRTLE BEACH NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY NC.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER LAND TODAY WITH ABSOLUTELY STABLE
THERMAL PROFILES. RAIN SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY MID-
AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TOPPED OFF BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS OFTEN RESULTS IN A BROKEN DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN THESE TWO
VERTICALLY DISSIMILAR AIRMASSES.
FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW WE`RE EXPECTING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY CRAWL THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. ONCE PRECIP CLEARS OFF THE COAST EXPECT MOST AREAS TO POP
INTO THE MID OR PERHAPS UPPER 70S BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT STILL
POOLING ACROSS MOST OF SE GA AND SC WHILE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS FAR NORTH IT WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO GENERATE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND SO POPS CAPPED
AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE OTHERWISE TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO HIT OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 80. MOISTURE THEN GETS SHUNTED EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY EVENING. EVEN
THOUGH ANOTHER APPRECIABLE VORT MAX WILL STREAK BY EARLY FRIDAY THE
COLUMN WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES.
HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS IT SWINGS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THE LONG TERM WILL BRING
RATHER QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OFF THE COAST. BEING MUCH WEAKER
THAN A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH IT WILL LIKELY LACK THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY OUT OF THE
PLAINS COULD ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR FLO. THIS BOUNDARY WAS
DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES. EXPECT MORE OF A
STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN TO SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE CRE/MYR TERMINALS
STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THERE IS ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF
CEILING/VISIBILITY FORECAST. IN GENERAL...AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND FALLS
INTO THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR OCCURRING 11-15Z.
BY NOON LOCAL TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE.
VFR SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
NORTHEAST TO EAST SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...LOWERED SEAS BY ABOUT A FOOT
CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING TREND THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS SHOULD SURGE LATER THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CENTRAL GEORGIA COAST
THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ALONG
THIS FRONT AND MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING IN AREAS WITH AN OPEN EXPOSURE TO NORTHEAST WINDS. A
"SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY AS FRONT
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL LEAVE THE REGION IN A RATHER WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND
THUS VERY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A WEAK HIGH
THOUGH AND RATHER SLOW TO PROGRESS...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS THAT
ONLY VERY SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY QUIET SET OF WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY OFFSHORE BUT IN SO MUCH A
TYPICAL JUNE FASHION WITH A STRONG BERMUDA ANTICYCLONE. THIS WEEKEND
SETUP WILL FIND A WEAKER HIGH CLOSER TO THE COAST KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS CAPPED AT ABOUT 10 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE SW. SMALL WIND WAVES
AND NEGLIGIBLE SWELL ENERGY YIELDING JUST 2 FT PREDOMINANT SEA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WE`RE SEVERAL DAYS PAST THIS
MONTH`S FULL MOON ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL RANGES REMAIN RATHER LARGE.
ONSHORE WINDS ARE HELPING TO BUILD A SMALL TIDAL SURGE AS WELL. THE
LARGEST FACTOR HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE AN UNRESOLVED POSITIVE WATER
LEVEL ANOMALY THAT IS SHOWING UP ALL ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MAINE
TO FLORIDA. THIS FACTOR WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CREATING
YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
SOME DATA FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...
ASTRONOMICAL SURGE + FORECAST WATER FLOOD
LOCATION TIDE ANOMALY LEVEL STAGE
CAPE FEAR RIVER-WILM 5.14 FT +1.00 6.14 FT 5.50 FT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 5.18 FT +1.10 6.28 FT 6.00 FT
MYRTLE BEACH 6.50 FT +0.80 7.60 FT 7.50 FT
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK/MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1003 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES NOW MIXING WITH RIDGETOP CUMULUS WITH THE
MORNING SFC HEATING. CU FIELD WILL EXPAND BY LATE MORNING...AS
SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE COMBINES WITH POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR
ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ SPREADING SWD FM THE LWR LKS. ANOTHER
DISTINCT SHORT WAVE /CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CROSSING THE
LWR LKS AND SRN NEW ENG AT 09Z/ WILL PIVOT SWD AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND HELP TO STEEPEN THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 6.5-7C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE ON THE SAME PAGE SHOWING CVRG
OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INCREASING INTO THE EARLY-
MID AFTN HOURS. HRRR SHOWS BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME
INTERACTION WITH A LAKE BREEZE MAY INDUCE AN ORGANIZED LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STEEP MID- LVL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
ON AVG...RANGING FM THE MID- UPPER 60S MTNS TO LOW 70S IN THE
CENTRAL AND SRN VLYS. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY DURING THE AFTN
HOURS THURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THURS NGT. THE LG SCALE MID-UPPER
TROF WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A SCHC OF
AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES. THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION
TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI-ZONAL ORIENTATION ON SAT...AS AN UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS NWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL BE
MODERATING A FEW DEGS WARMER EACH DAY. ALL MDL DATA SUGGESTS A
WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS WILL CROSS THE UPPER GRT LKS
EARLY SAT MORNING AND REACH UPSTATE NY/NEW ENG BY SAT EVE.
CONSENSUS SOLN WOULD KEEP THIS SYS AND ITS ASSOCD IMPACTS
GENERALLY NORTH OF PA...BUT GIVEN SOME SPATIAL MDL DIFFS AND
LOW/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT LONGER
RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH
LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY COURTESY OF A STG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC
COAST. CURRENT MEDIAN GUID BLEND HAS HIGHS PEAKING BTWN 85-90F ON
MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND
ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS.
FOG AND SUB VFR CIGS IS IN THE PROCESS OF IMPROVING WITH GOOD DEAL
OF MORNING SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...VFR MID CLOUD DECK ALREADY IN THE
PROCESS OF CLOSING IN ON MOST AIRFIELDS BY LATER THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH LOCALIZED IMPACTS PERSISTING
INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN
FALLS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
717 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FM THE CENTRAL GRT LKS IS PROVIDING
M/CLR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING OVR CENTRAL PA. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND RESIDUAL BLYR MSTR/WET SOILS HAS PROMOTED SHALLOW
FOG/STRATUS FORMATION..PARTICULARLY IN THE N-CENTRAL RVR VALLEYS
PER LATEST IR SATL/FOG CHANNEL. SKIES WILL START OFF M/SUNNY
TDY...BUT EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND EXPAND BY
MID-LATE MORNING...AS SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE COMBINES WITH POOL
OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ SPREADING SWD FM
THE LWR LKS. ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORT WAVE /CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY CROSSING THE LWR LKS AND SRN NEW ENG AT 09Z/ WILL PIVOT
SWD AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND HELP
TO STEEPEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 6.5-7C/KM BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM ARE GENERALLY ON THE SAME
PAGE IN SHOWING CVRG OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
INCREASING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTN HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...MAY
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE GIVEN
BETTER CONFIDENCE. THE WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND ML CAPES
MARGINAL...BUT THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVG...RANGING FM THE MID-UPPER 60S MTNS
TO LOW 70S IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN VLYS. EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MINS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY DURING THE AFTN
HOURS THURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THURS NGT. THE LG SCALE MID-UPPER
TROF WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A SCHC OF
AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES. THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION
TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI-ZONAL ORIENTATION ON SAT...AS AN UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS NWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GRT LKS. TEMPS WILL BE
MODERATING A FEW DEGS WARMER EACH DAY. ALL MDL DATA SUGGESTS A
WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS WILL CROSS THE UPPER GRT LKS
EARLY SAT MORNING AND REACH UPSTATE NY/NEW ENG BY SAT EVE.
CONSENSUS SOLN WOULD KEEP THIS SYS AND ITS ASSOCD IMPACTS
GENERALLY NORTH OF PA...BUT GIVEN SOME SPATIAL MDL DIFFS AND
LOW/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT LONGER
RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH
LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY COURTESY OF A STG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC
COAST. CURRENT MEDIAN GUID BLEND HAS HIGHS PEAKING BTWN 85-90F ON
MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND
ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS.
FOG AND SUB VFR CIGS IS IN THE PROCESS OF IMPROVING WITH GOOD DEAL
OF MORNING SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...VFR MID CLOUD DECK ALREADY IN THE
PROCESS OF CLOSING IN ON MOST AIRFIELDS BY LATER THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH LOCALIZED IMPACTS PERSISTING
INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN
FALLS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
920 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA INTO TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
MAY BRING A RETURN TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM...A CHALLENGING FCST FOR THIS MORNING/S UPDATE. SHOWERS
HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK-BUILD ACRS THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND NC
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP SHOW ISENT LIFT ATOP A WEAK
IN SITU WEDGE COUPLED WITH THE VERY EDGE OF STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS PROBABLY RESPONSIBLE. THESE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS
LIFT SHUD WEAKEN AS CHANNELED VORT MAX (AND ASSOCIATED Q
CONVERGENCE) EXITS TO THE EAST FROM ABOUT NOW THRU MIDDAY. LIFT
WON/T COMPLETELY END TODAY...AND EASTERLY 850 MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 10-15 KTS THRU THE DAY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING THRU THE DAY...TRANSITIONING FROM THE I-77
CORRIDOR TO MORE ALONG/INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WITH THAT SAID...THE CURRENT SHOWERS ARE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS THANKS TO WARM CLOUD PROCESSES (12Z GSO SOUNDING STILL
SHOWS SLIGHT WARM NOSE AROUND 600MB). RAIN OVERNIGHT WAS
HEAVY...WITH A FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF 1.5 TO 2" ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHERN CHARLOTTE METRO. STILL THINK WITH THE
UPPER SUPPORT EXITING AND ISENT LIFT WEAKENING...FLOOD THREAT TOO
LOW TO ISSUE ANY WATCH. A FEW STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH
AND ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS. SO SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AND I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXCESSIVE RAIN/FLOOD THREAT IN THE
HWO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 0230 EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
EAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WAS LOCATED. THIS UPGLIDE IS SHOW TO WEAKEN AFTER
12Z IN THE NAM. A CHANNELED VORT LOBE WILL MOVE INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TODAY...FOLLOW BY ANOTHER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST.
WITH A MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...POPS WILL
FAVOR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT...AS A COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS UNDER LOW
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT RANGE WILL FEATURE AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE OLD UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FINALLY MOVES AWAY. THE LAST CHANNELED VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
WEAK CONVERGENCE TOWARD THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...THAT SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE REALLY STARTS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...SO THAT SHOULD BE IT FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
GULF IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MS
DELTA/SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE GFS AND ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH AGREE THAT A PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP THAT IS QUITE FAVORABLE TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AT LEAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE RAISED
POP INTO THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE MTNS ACCORDINGLY. DEEP MOISTURE
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE
RAISED INTO THE CHANCE RANGE EVERYWHERE FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CIG HAS DEVELOPED AND SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK...AFTER WHICH A LOW VFR CIG WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSION LARGE ENOUGH TO FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH VFR VSBY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
LOW VFR VSBY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY FOG
JUST YET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM ENE.
ELSEWHERE...KHKY WILL KEEP IFR CIG AND MVFR VSBY EARLY THIS MORNING
IN RAIN SOAKED AIR. OTHER TAF SITES ARE VFR...EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBY
AT KAVL...BUT AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE
UPSTATE. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT AT KHKY AS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
REMAINS THERE IN WEAKENING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE
THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST IN MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE NE...EXCEPT CHANNELED DOWN
VALLEY FROM THE SSE AT KAVL. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR VSBY AT MOST
SITES BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY...EXCEPT KAND AND KGMU. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN AT KGSP THAN AT KAVL OR KHKY...BOTH OF
WHICH HAD BETTER RAIN THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...E-NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND A CHANCE
OF AT LEAST MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG INTO THU. DRY
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK/JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
708 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.AVIATION...
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE TIMING AND INITIATION. SREF
AND GFS HAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS METROPLEX TAF SITES ALL
NIGHT...WHICH OBVIOUSLY DID NOT HAPPEN. HRRR AT 12Z (NOW) HAS
PRECIP FROM SHERMAN EASTWARD INTO SRN AR. CURRENT NAM PRECIP IS
ABOUT TWO COUNTIES TWO FAR EAST. POOR INITIALIZATION ACROSS THE
BOARD GIVES LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION AT
METROPLEX. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS TIMING OF STORMS DURING MAX HEATING
ON TOWARDS SUNSET AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. HAVE DROPPED THE TEMPO GROUPS FROM THURSDAY MORNING AND
LEFT VCTS BECAUSE MODELS SEEM TO BE DRIER IN THAT TIME PERIOD AS
WELL. WILL HOPE THAT 12Z GUIDANCE IS INITIALIZED BETTER AND LET
THE DAY SHIFT MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES TO STORM TIMING. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SLOW-MOVING WARM CORE UPPER
LOW MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED NEAR
SWEETWATER...LUBBOCK AND BIG SPRING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
STORMS. THIS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK BETTER ON RADAR AND
WILL LIKELY HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW A BIT...DUE TO LATENT HEAT
PROCESSES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE PW VALUES HIGHER FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW...AS THE DRIER AIR TENDS TO LIMIT
THE HEAT FLUX. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING EAST OF THE
CWA...WITHIN A SHEAR AXIS ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH
TEXAS...EXCEPT FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST
TODAY...BUT THE MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW...IMPACTED BY A
BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
OUTPUT IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP TODAY. SEVERAL
WRF MEMBERS ONLY HAVE A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION.
WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED CLOSER TO NORTH
TEXAS AND TONIGHTS ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN MOVE EAST...WEAKENING IN THE MORNING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAN THE NAM. THE NAM IS PLACING MOST OF ITS QPF SOUTH OF
I-20...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TO THE NORTH. WILL STICK WITH THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION...BUT THE EXACT LATITUDE THE MAIN FORCING
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS THE MOST RAINFALL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
END PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS 850 TEMPS OF 25-29C WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
THE GFS SENDS A DEEP LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
THE MODEL IS PROGGING A COLD FRONT WITH PRECIP TO REACH THE
NORTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY EVENING. NORTH TEXAS WILL STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM
PLAUSIBLE. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT/PRECIP
NORTH OF THE CWA. MEXMOS IS FORECASTING 30 POPS TUESDAY...BUT WILL
KEEP THE SILENT 10S IN THE FORECAST.
85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 71 85 69 87 / 70 70 60 50 20
WACO, TX 93 72 88 70 89 / 30 40 30 40 20
PARIS, TX 88 66 87 65 85 / 50 60 40 50 30
DENTON, TX 87 70 85 68 86 / 70 70 60 50 20
MCKINNEY, TX 88 68 84 66 86 / 70 70 60 50 30
DALLAS, TX 89 72 85 69 87 / 70 70 50 50 30
TERRELL, TX 90 70 85 68 86 / 60 70 50 50 30
CORSICANA, TX 93 71 86 70 87 / 50 60 30 50 30
TEMPLE, TX 93 71 85 70 89 / 30 30 30 30 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 88 69 83 68 85 / 60 70 60 50 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
143 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.AVIATION...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA NEXT 24 HRS. DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS ALL TAFS THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL MENTION VCSH MOST TAFS OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS HAVE FINALLY
BEGUN TO SWITCH TO SE ACROSS ERN TERMINALS AND WILL EXPECT ALL OF
THEM TO REMAIN SE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DECREASING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. KAPF SHOULD REMAIN OUT THE SW AT ARND 13 KTS, BUT
BECOME SE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 8-10 KTS SHOULD
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
GENERATING SOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
THIS SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS TO MOVE EAST AND INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED POPS OVER THE CWA FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THIS MORNING ARE IN LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE CWA...HIGHS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
HIGHS AROUND 90 OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS FOR TODAY.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ARE STILL COOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
JET OF 30 KNOTS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG OVER THE CWA
TODAY WITH HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
AREA. WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BRIEF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING CELLS. AFTER 00Z, SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST COAST AFTER 14Z. AT KAPF,
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WSW BY 16Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY THE
NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NEARLY IDENTICAL. HAVING STATED THAT,
THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS TYPICAL MESOSCALE
BIAS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER POPS FROM DAY TO DAY. ONE INTERESTING
NOTE TOO IS THAT THE HRRR WHICH IS A NORMALLY VERY USEFUL SHORT
TERM MODEL HAS APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED BADLY THIS EVENING AND
SHOWS A LARGE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE W CST JUST NORTH OF
APF AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE OKEE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GOFMEX AT THIS TIME, THIS
SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FACTORS OF THAT TYPE OF AN EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THEREFORE DO NOT PLACE MUCH EMPHASIS ON ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY.
THERE IS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF THE
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK KEEPING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE FL STRAITS. THESE
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FAVOR A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND A
CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR S FL WITH
CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ABOUT THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IN THE MAIN THREE MODELS IS ON FRIDAY WHERE THE 00Z GFS
AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEE BY
LATE FRIDAY AND THE NAM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVE THESE DIFFERENCES, NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER
POPS FOR FRIDAY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT
COVERAGE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE OVER S FL ON
SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SCT POPS. FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO
APPARENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE GFS MOVES
THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD
TEND TO GIVE S FL A QUITE DIFFERENT WX PATTERN WITH THE GFS
PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRYING PATTERN.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCT ACTIVITY UNTIL THERE IS A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH.
MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS. THERE IS
AN INDICATION OF A SHORT FUSED WIND SURGE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
HEIGHTS. THE FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 87 74 88 / 30 40 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 88 76 90 / 20 40 40 50
MIAMI 79 89 76 90 / 20 40 40 50
NAPLES 76 86 75 86 / 20 30 30 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1245 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH IA LOCATED ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE EASTERN TROUGH. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY EXISTS ACRS CENTRAL IA WHERE 850MB
CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
THE PCPN HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY
ON THE WESTERN SIDE AWAY FROM THE DRIER AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS ISOLD
CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD
THUNDER TO A SIGNIFICANT SECTION OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. THE
FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AS 850MB RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO EASTERN IA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE
EAST TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WE WILL SEE INTERMITTENT OPPORTUNITIES
FOR A FEW POPCORN STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...GENERATED BY RIPPLES IN
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MID-LEVEL RIPPLES RIDING OVER THE
APPROACHING RIDGE. PINNING DOWN THESE SUBTLE FEATURES IS VERY
DIFFICULT...HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY RESULTING STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SO HAVE
TRENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. AT ANY RATE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD COINCIDENT WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY. HAVE ONCE AGAIN NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THE MOS GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING
THE DEGREE OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND RECENT CLIMATOLOGY/MODEL BIASES.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING AS A LARGE 500 MB
GYRE MOVES ROUGHLY EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. BY
SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA OR
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING AROUND IT
LIKE SPOKES ON A WHEEL. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE...WITH ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
OUR CWA SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREIN LIES THE ISSUE
AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT IN WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS OUR AREA.
THIS WILL AFFECT ALL FORECAST FIELDS MOST NOTABLY TEMPERATURES AND
POPS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST...THE EC MUCH SLOWER...AND
THE GEM IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE NOT MADE
TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ALLBLEND POPULATION FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER THE GFS DOES SEEM TOO FAST WITH ITS FRONTAL
PROGRESSION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK AND CONFINED THEM TO OUR
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO REFLECT
THIS. ALSO REMOVED POPS ON MONDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE SLOW EC HAS THE
FRONT AND PRECIP CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY THEN. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK WE CONTINUE TO SEE A MORE ZONAL 500 MB PATTERN ON THE
HORIZON...WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF TO MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...06/18Z
NON-DESCRIPT RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS IOWA AND
TRANSITIONAL AREAS OF WEAK LIFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST INTERESTING
FOR TAF LOCATIONS. WE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BUT
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP AT ANY TIME...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS. WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREAS FROM 21Z TO 00Z THEN
TONIGHT BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL PERIOD OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
TONIGHT AND BE LIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
331 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT
BLOCKING UPR LO OVER NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN
THE PLAINS. SHRTWV ROTATING SWWD THRU QUEBEC IN CYC NE FLOW ALF ARND
THE CLOSED LO AND ACCOMPANYING AREA OF MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON WV IMAGE
AND SPC DIAGNOSED AREA OF KINX AOA 30 IS CAUSING SOME CLDS/A FEW
-SHRA OVER ERN LK SUP INTO ERN UPR MI INTO EARLY AFTN. ANOTHER
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS UNDER NNW FLOW IS
SINKING SSEWD THRU MN...BRINGING SOME SCT SHRA/TS TO MAINLY NE MN
UNDER STEEPER H85-5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB/AREA OF
HIER KINX NEAR 35 SHOWN ON SPC ANALYSIS/AREA OF H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH MN SHRTWV AS DIAGNOSED BY MAJORITY OF MODELS. A FEW
-SHRA ON THE ERN EDGE OF THIS AREA HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR WRN CWA
IWD. BTWN THESE TWO AREAS OF -SHRA...SFC/H85 HI PRES EXTENDING FM NW
ONTARIO THRU CNTRL LK SUP/UPR MI AND INTO NE WI AS WELL AS AXIS OF
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB /KINX 7/ IS
BRINGING MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WX.
TNGT...AFT ANY LINGERING DIURNAL -SHRA OVER THE W END EARLY THIS
EVNG...EXPECT A TRANQUIL NGT WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/
SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING SFC-H85 RDG AXIS OVER UPR MI. WITH MOCLR
SKIES/LGT WINDS/FCST PWAT 0.60-0.75 INCH ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NGT
AND DEWPTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MID/UPR 30S THIS AFTN...EXPECT A
STEEP FALL OF TEMP TNGT BLO BULK OF GUIDANCE AND TOWARD READINGS AS
LO AS THE 30S OVER THE INTERIOR THAT WERE REPORTED THIS MRNG.
THU...UNDER RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC...SFC HI PRES
RDG AXIS WL BRING A DRY DAY TO THE CWA WITH SOME DIURNAL CU INLAND
FM LK BREEZES THAT FORM WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVHD.
WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT ARND 13C...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
AS 500MB LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY...STRONG OMEGA BLOCKING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LESS AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. STRONG 500MB LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING
ALBERTA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING EASTWARD TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPPER MI WILL BE LOCATED ON THE DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE DE-AMPLIFYING
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG 500MB LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP A RIDGING PATTERN
OVER UPPER MI ALOFT...WITH CORRESPONDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO
FLATTEN...SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEGIN
IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING
TO TRAVEL JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS WAA AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO RISE TO 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS FAR AS
CONVECTION...DESPITE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE CWA...GFS MEAN
LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE /500-1000 J/KG/ AND
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE FAVORABLE OVER UPPER MI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR AND FRONTOGENESIS COULD STILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS BEING SAID...INCREASED POP VALUES TO LIKELY OVER AREAS OF BEST
FORCING...WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN MODERATE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES /30-40KTS/ AND A MORE FAVORABLE LOOKING CAPE
PROFILE WITH THIS LAST MODEL RUN...NEXT UPDATES MAY DECIDE TO GO
LIKELY TSRA AS WELL. REGARDLESS...THINK MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN. GFS BULLSEYES WELL OVER 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MI...THOUGH REST OF MODELS SHOW MUCH LOWER VALUES WITH
THE MAIN PRECIP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A COMBINATION
OF THE NAM/ECMWF AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TO DERIVE QPF. BEST FORCING
AND MOISTURE WILL THEN EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST SATURDAY...WITH
SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF RAIN FAR EAST DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REGAIN CONTROL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT RESULTING LAKE BREEZES
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. AS
LAKE BREEZES CONVERGE IN THE AFTERNOON...WARM UNSTABLE AIR INTERIOR
WEST COULD RISE AND SPAWN A FEW TSRA/SHRA. EXACT SET UP AND LOCATION
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CAPE VALUES /800-1100 J/KG ML CAPE/ AND HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND.
MEANWHILE...STRONG 500MB LOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF TSRA/SHRA DURING PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. AFTER
PASSAGE...DRIER SOUTHERLY AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO UPPER
MI...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WI BORDER TO RISE TO THE UPPER
80S. TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOLER AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...500MB LOW WILL HAVE REACHED LAKE WINNIPEG...WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PROTRUDING AHEAD OF IT AND STRETCHING DOWN INTO
TEXAS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER UPPER MI WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD...SO WILL
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT...TRAVERSING
UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ ARE A GOOD
INDICATOR THAT TSRA ACTIVITY COULD VERY WELL BE PRESENT. 1000-2000
J/KG ML CAPE VALUES ALONG WITH A FAT CAPE PROFILE ALSO SUPPORT THIS
IDEA. SINCE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY INCONSISTENT ON EXACT TIMING FOR THE
PRECIP REACHING AND EXITING UPPER MI...WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS DURING THIS TIME...WITH BEST FORCING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXITING EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT...BOTH EXTENDING FROM THE SAME 500MB LOW /NOW
OVER JAMES BAY/...WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THEN TRAVERSING UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING LAKE SUP THRU THU NGT...EXPECT WINDS LESS
THAN 20 KTS. ALTHOUGH A PAIR OF LO PRES SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI INTO SAT AND AGAIN ON MON...THE HI
STABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATERS WILL HOLD WIND SPEEDS
TO NO HIER THAN 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT
BLOCKING UPR LO OVER NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN
THE PLAINS. SHRTWV ROTATING SWWD THRU QUEBEC IN CYC NE FLOW ALF ARND
THE CLOSED LO AND ACCOMPANYING AREA OF MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON WV IMAGE
AND SPC DIAGNOSED AREA OF KINX AOA 30 IS CAUSING SOME CLDS/A FEW
-SHRA OVER ERN LK SUP INTO ERN UPR MI INTO EARLY AFTN. ANOTHER
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS UNDER NNW FLOW IS
SINKING SSEWD THRU MN...BRINGING SOME SCT SHRA/TS TO MAINLY NE MN
UNDER STEEPER H85-5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB/AREA OF
HIER KINX NEAR 35 SHOWN ON SPC ANALYSIS/AREA OF H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH MN SHRTWV AS DIAGNOSED BY MAJORITY OF MODELS. A FEW
-SHRA ON THE ERN EDGE OF THIS AREA HAVE IMPACTED THE FAR WRN CWA
IWD. BTWN THESE TWO AREAS OF -SHRA...SFC/H85 HI PRES EXTENDING FM NW
ONTARIO THRU CNTRL LK SUP/UPR MI AND INTO NE WI AS WELL AS AXIS OF
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB /KINX 7/ IS
BRINGING MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WX.
REST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME DIURNAL CLDS ARE LIKELY TO DVLP OVER
THE CNTRL CWA WITH CONVECTIVE TEMP ON THE GRB RAOB ARND 70...EXPECT
ANY -SHRA TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR ERN CWA UNDER THE AREA OF MID
LVL MSTR/HIER KINX AND THE W NEAR THE WI BORDER INLAND FM LK BREEZE
PENETRATION. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE PENETRATION OF THE LK SUP BREEZE/
ACCOMPANYING STABILIZATION INTO THE ERN CWA WITH NW FLOW TO THE E OF
HI PRES RDG AXIS IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS ANY -SHRA THERE BY MID AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NE CONUS AND ANOTHER OVER THE PAC NW.
BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS...UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NRN PLAINS...WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS ATTEMPTING TO ROUND
THE RIDGE. THE ERN TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY...AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH AND MOVING SW THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
IT/S PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER ONTARIO AND A FEW RADAR RETURNS
OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT THE CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED AND DIMINISHING
SOME. THIS WAVE AND MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SW ACROSS ERN CWA THIS
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS IT DROPS S INTO NRN LOWER MI. THIS
MOISTURE MIGHT HELP ENHANCE THE INITIAL CU OVER THE ERN CWA THAT
DEVELOPS TOWARDS MID-DAY. BUT THE MORE NRLY AND STRONGER PUSH OF LK
SUPERIOR BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN.
SECOND WAVE FARTHER NE IN WRN QUEBEC IS PROGGED TO DROP SW AND
TOWARDS LK HURON AND SHOULDN/T HAVE ANY EFFECT ON THE CWA. THINKING
IS THESE TWO SHORTWAVES WILL HELP PUSH SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS DROPPING SSE THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE W OF THE
LAND CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...WHICH ALL KEEP THE
DEEP H700-300 Q-VECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER ERN MN AND
JUST BRUSHING FAR WRN LK SUPERIOR.
HI-RES MODELS SHOWING THE LK SUPERIOR BREEZE BEING THE DOMINATE
LK BREEZE TODAY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER NRLY FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SFC OVER THE ERN CWA FROM A SLIGHTLY FARTHER W SFC HIGH POSITION
OVER LK SUPERIOR. THIS LK BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST AND LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO IRON COUNTY AREA...BUT SOME LIGHT
RETURN FLOW OVER THE FAR WEST IN THE LLVLS WILL TRY TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THIS LLVL
MOISTURE AND WEAK LK BREEZE CONV MAY BE THE BEST SHOT FOR SEEING
SHOWERS TODAY. HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION SEEM TO
STRUGGLE WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WILL
CAP AT ISOLATED LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT. AS FOR THUNDER...MODELS SHOWING
MLCAPE VALUES OF 200-400 J/KG PEAKING AROUND IRON COUNTY. THERE WERE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER WRN UPPER MI YEST...BUT WITH A LITTLE
LESS INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED FARTHER SW...WILL LEAVE THUNDER MENTION
OUT.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND USED THOSE AS
A STARTING POINT. MIXING TO H800-775 OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AWAY FROM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
500MB CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE
OMEGA BLOCK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY...WHEN A PACIFIC TROUGH SWINGS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.
ON TUESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...FINALLY REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN
THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST.
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LINGERING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. 850-500MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS
PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THINKING ANY SIGNIFICANT UL SUPPORT FROM
THE TROUGH ALOFT SEEMS TO BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION. AS FOR MOISTURE...THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB LOW MOVING INTO MANITOBA WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY...WITH
PWATS AS MUCH AS 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES. WITH SURFACE HIGH...LAKE BREEZES ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR COULD END UP KICKING OFF A COUPLE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED
CAPE SEEMS TO ONLY BE AS MUCH AS 300 J/KG...HOWEVER MLCAPE IS MORE
ON THE ORDER OF 500-600 J/KG. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AND THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES FOR THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY MORE INTERESTING...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MANITOBA SLIDING JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ALOFT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS AS TO THE PATTERN. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN JUST A SMIDGE FASTER THAN THE
GFS...AND IS A LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS MODEST...AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AS THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS MLCAPE
VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 600-1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR AND A
THINNER SHAPE TO THE SOUNDING PROFILE/SKINNY CAPE/ EXPECT HEAVY RAIN
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IF ANY FROM FRIDAYS STORMS.
SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AS PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL EDGE ITS
WAY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUMP
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING EASTERN MANITOBA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING ON SATURDAY COULD KNOCK OFF A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH SFC CAPE AROUND 800 J/KG
AND MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY WITH LINGERING UL SUPPORT
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND PWATS STILL 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
AS 850 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 18-20C RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT NEAR 90F INLAND.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE MODELS
BEGIN TO REALLY DISAGREE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE 500MB LOW/SURFACE LOWS. THIS WILL BRING DOWN CONFIDENCE IN
TERMS OF SPECIFICS ON PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
GFS/GEM HAVE A MORE COMPACT SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BRINGING A
MORE DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE GEM/GFS SEEM TO WANT TO BRING THE FRONT IN
A LITTLE BIT EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. CANNOT JUSTIFY GOING ABOVE
CHANCE POPS FOR THESE TIME FRAMES...LARGELY DUE TO THE VAST
UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATER SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST AND
CENTRAL AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVERHEAD...WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE
APPRECIABLE AND COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...GIVEN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TUESDAY WE DEAL WITH THE 500MB LOW PASSING FROM MANITOBA AND TOWARDS
JAMES BAY. WITH LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AS THE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT THERE
COULD BE SOME REMAINING SHOWERS EARLY ON...HOWEVER EXPECT THESE TO
END AS THE LOW SLOWLY HEADS NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE
AGAIN...THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS HANDLING OF THIS LOW
GIVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS DAY OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
VERY QUIET MARINE PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THU NIGHT. A
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS LK SUPERIOR ON
FRI AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE S...BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
WINDS BELOW 20 KTS. LOOK FOR A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE TO DOMINATE ON
SAT. A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 25 KTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE WILL
DEVELOP ON SUN UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HI
RETREATING TO THE E AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MCB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
DID INCREASE HIGHS SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CURRENT
TRENDS AS TEMPERATURES HAD INCREASED MORE RAPID THAN EXPECTED. AT
17Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM KIEN TO KAIA TO
KIBN. THERE HAS BEEN WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVER SHERIDAN
COUNTY AND JUST TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE
VIS SATELLITE WS SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPING GOING SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT. BACKED OFF ON EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AS CURRENT STORM MOTIONS
ARE ALMOST DUE NORTH AND WON/T SEE MUCH OF A NORTHEAST COMPONENT
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THEN...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST OF THE PANHANDLE. AFTER DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES...BELIEVE ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS THERE
WON/T BE MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP STORMS GOING. IN TERMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...BELIEVE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
COLORADO...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE MINIMAL...ONLY
AROUND 25KTS ACCORDING TO THE RUC AND NAM FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO
DON/T SEE MUCH OUTSIDE AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM LATER TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED CONCERNING AVIATION WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT VERY LITTLE CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KOGA TO KVTN. FOR BOTH KVTN AND KLBF...CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR...WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO MIX.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHICH MAY BE WASHING OUT ALONG THE WY-NEB
BORDER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
SHERIDAN COUNTY. SATELLITE SUGGESTED ACCAS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF WRN NEB. THE FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN NEB THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WITH A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. A SOMEWHAT BLOCKED LARGE SCALE
PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS 48 AS UPPER RIDGING IS
TIGHTLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING/PANHANDLE REGION OF NEBRASKA. MODELS
INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
COMBINE WITH MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST TO CARRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL THE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO ONLY THE PANHANDLE REGION. AGREE WITH THE
ASSESSMENT AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE SUGGEST MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITION THOUGH...BUT LESS
THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR PROFILES. GIVEN NEGATIVE LI/S APPROACHING
-4C AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA...CANNOT RULE OUT A LARGE HAIL
OR SEVERE WIND REPORT...BUT FEEL THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WHICH AGAIN SHOULD LIMIT
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND RELEGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO THERE AS
WELL.
A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED BREAK DOWN. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS SUGGESTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO. ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND BETTER SHEAR TO PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AGAIN LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FROM ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE THE MODELS HAVE THE WAVE PROGRESSING
NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LESS LIKELY. WILL
CONTINUE THE INHERITED CHANCE POPS EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS TARGET A STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO A
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXTENDED...12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE TO RETURN ON
FRIDAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN INTO THE 90S BY SATURDAY...THEN
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRAGS A COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CONTINUED THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST AS
MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AND THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH IN
THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION/UPDATE...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
621 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES, ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING EACH DAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING US SHOWERS SATURDAY BEFORE A
STRETCH OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATED LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...TO DETERMINISTICALLY HONE IN ON AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO RULE OUT LOCATIONS NOT LIKELY TO SEE
ANYTHING. STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO QUITE
OBVIOUS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE LAKE AND SOUTH OF THE
THRUWAY...YET MAINLY SUNNY IN BETWEEN. HRRR MODEL DOING AN
ADMIRABLE JOB PLACING CONVECTION IN AN ENHANCED LINE ALONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE...ABOUT TO SPREAD THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS...AND
HEADING SOUTH WHILE DECREASING IN COVERAGE WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT. SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
EXPECTED. WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND EVEN A BIT OF SMALL HAIL. AT THE
OFFICE WE HAD HAIL JUST A BIT BIGGER THAN THE SIZE OF A PEA AND
MOST RECENTLY UP IN ROME 1/4" HAIL OR THE SIZE OF A PEA FROM
NUMEROUS SPOTTERS. WITH VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS...NOT SURPRISING
WE WILL SEE A BIT OF HAIL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE WITH VERY
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE (INVERTED V SOUNDINGS). I AM NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TO TURN SEVERE WITH NO SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THE STORMS FOR
ANY LENGTH OF TIME. AS THESE STORMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN EXPECT
THE ACTION TO DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT QUITE AS
WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND A BIT
BETTER MIXING OFF THE DECK...DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NEPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM UPDATE...
THURSDAY...WE STILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF THE CUT OFF
LOW ACROSS THE MARITIMES SO MUCH LIKE TODAY...SHOWERS AND RUMBLES
OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY ON. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS
ABOUT 1000 FEET HIGHER TOMORROW (6500 FEET VS. 7500 FEET)...BUT
STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
CELLS. AGAIN NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE HOWEVER BUT DEF. WORTH
A MENTION.
FRIDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DRIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT WE WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT A DRY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM I-81 WEST. WITH THAT SAID WE ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE LOW AND THE MODELS STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS EAST...TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST.
SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON PRECIP
FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA BORDER NORTH. ALL THREE
MODELS (EURO/NAM/GFS) SHOW A WAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WITH SCT. SHOWERS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING THE
SLOWEST MODEL BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS NY
STATE. ACROSS PA SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIP
GETS. FOR NOW WILL COVER THIS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD FEATURES A BLDG RDG FROM THE MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE OLD
CLSD LOW AS IT DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE RDGG...STILL SOME
PSBLTY OF AFTN CONV...ESP EARLY IN THE PD AS WEAK WVS SLIDE DOWN
THE ERN SIDE OF THE RDG...AND AGAIN ON TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE AS
A STRONG WV COMES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND KICKS THE RDG TO THE
EAST. IT WILL BE WARM...AS H8 TEMPS APRCH 16C TO 18C WITH SUMMER
TIME HUMIDITY.
GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID FOR THE PD. RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BASED GUID AND THE ECMWF MAKES THIS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE XTNDD
FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LL/S DRYING OUT BUT WITH HTG AND COOL POOL ALOFT...INSTABILITY
SHWRS AND TRWS XPCTD THRU THE AFTN HRS. BELIEVE CVRG WILL BE ISLTD
ENUF SUCH THAT IT WILL NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS...
HWVR...BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS PSBL IF A SHWR HITS THE
SITE. CLRG THIS EVENING WILL BE FLWD BY VLY FOG ONCE AGAIN AS LL
WINDS GO CALM. DOES NOT LOOK AS MOIST AS THE PRVS NGT...SO
WILL ONLY FCST LIFR AT ELM. HTG AFT SUNRISE ON THU WILL RESULT IN
CLRG SKIES. INSTABILITY SHWRS PSBL AGAIN...BUT GNRLY BEYOND THE TAF
PD.
OUTLOOK...
THU AFTN/FRI..MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FROM FOG ESPECIALLY VALLEY TERMINALS.
SAT - MON...MAINLY VFR BUT MVFR POSSIBLE SAT IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM NOVA SCOTIA
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM WEDNESDAY...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTHERN AL. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
INTO PA/MD/VA FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE CREST
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS FAR SW VA AND NW NC AS OF 14Z
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.
AN AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPED LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NC. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WAS INITIATED IN A REGION OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION LAST EVENING. OVERNIGHT STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPED IN THE 295-300K LAYER IN A REGION OF INCREASING DPVA WHICH
ALLOWED THE RAIN SHIELD TO EXPAND AND TO BECOME BRIEFLY HEAVY IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REACHED AROUND 2 INCHES IN
ROWAN COUNTY WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT IN DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES WITH A MORE
GENERAL 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE TRIAD. THESE AMOUNTS
WERE AROUND 1/3 OF THE RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERDONE WITH BOTH THE
00Z AND 06Z NAM AND GFS WHILE THE 03-09Z RUNS OF THE HRRR PICKED UP
ON THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND LARGELY DISSIPATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL WEAKEN AS THE SHORT WAVE TOUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL TREND
THE FORECAST FROM NUMEROUS SHOWERS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS...A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW..AND LITTLE LOW/MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHEAR VORTICITY AND
WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES TO GIVE WAY TO SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AND MANUALLY EDITED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES FOR A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. -BLAES
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 1 WHERE THE RELATIVE BEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS PROGGED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY:
H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING SSE THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE
FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST...AND THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL BE ROUGHLY THE SAME
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO BE 5-10
METERS HIGHER THAN TODAY IN ASSOC/W HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...THOUGH TEMPS
ALOFT ARE ALSO PROGGED TO WARM BY ~1C. AS A RESULT...DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ROUGHLY THE SAME AS TODAY...
WITH ~250 J/KG MLCAPE DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...
ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING AND TEMPS ALOFT DO
NOT MARGINALLY INCREASE AS EXPECTED...SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES AT 20% AND HAVE OMITTED CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN 5-10
METER 1000-850 MB HEIGHT RISES AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IN THE MID/UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...OR 77-82F.
THURSDAY NIGHT:
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS
INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY
MAY NEGATE MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOC/W IT. MODEL GUIDANCE AND
HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...AND ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
GIVEN SLIGHT AIRMASS MODIFICATION...EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F...WARMEST SOUTH. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD OF A HOTTER
AND DRIER WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN AND THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE OF CHOICE... ALTHOUGH
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE MODELS WITH THE OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO NUDGE EASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS FRI-SAT...
THEN MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INCLUDING NC THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. RISING HEIGHTS WILL MEAN RISING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY TO A POSITION OVER NC SUNDAY... THEN JUST OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MINIMAL... EXCEPT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY FRI-SAT WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 80-85... INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 82-88 SATURDAY. IT WILL BE HOT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD REACH 87-92. LOWS SHOULD
BE IN THE 60-65 RANGE FRI... MODERATING TO 65-70 SUN-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ATTM ACROSS THE TRIAD REGION BUT FARTHER
EAST THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THIS MORNINGS RAIN CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST. EXPECT
THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH FLT
CATEGORIES SLOWLY IMPROVING WEST. THIS EVENING WE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL OUR TAF SITES. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHEARED SHORT WAVE MOVING SE ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT TONIGHT FROM THIS WAVE IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCE. ON THE OTHER HAND...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING WITH MOIST LIGHT NE FLOW IN PLACE...THUS LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE.
LOOKING AHEAD:
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...THOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLAES/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...NP/VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
530 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO SELF DESTRUCT
CUMULUS WITH THE MORNING SFC HEATING. EXPANDING CU FIELD DUE TO
POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ IS SPREADING
SWD FM THE LWR LKS...STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
6.5-7C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE ON THE SAME PAGE SHOWING CVRG
OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INCREASING INTO THE MID
AFTN HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME INTERACTION WITH A LAKE BREEZE
MAY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP MID- LVL LAPSE RATES MAY
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S OVER THE
LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETTING REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS
FOR THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING
AFTER SUNSET. MAXES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WED AFTN
READINGS AND RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500MB LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY WITH THE MEAN TROF
POSITION MOVING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST LATE THURSDAY...EARLY FRIDAY
WITH JUST A SCHC OF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES.
LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES EASTWARD TREK AS THE PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI- ZONAL ORIENTATION INTO SAT.
AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHS COULD BRING A
WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
EARLY SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS MOVE THIS PERTURBATION FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVERLAYING THE AREA AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MASON DIXON BY 06Z SUN. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD HAVE INCREASED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE...PRESENCE OF DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUNDAY...AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. CURRENTLY THE
ONLY FOR SURE DRY DAYS SEEM TO BE FRIDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH GIVEN
VARIABILITY OF MESOSCALE FEATURES THROUGH SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AT
LONGER RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO
HEDGE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING A FEW DEGS
WARMER EACH DAY. THE CURRENT RUNS ARE TRENDING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER SUNDAY AND MONDAYS
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BE COURTESY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL DISRUPT THE MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TUE- WED. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN THIS PATTERN THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT TIMING
VARIATION.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED 21Z TAFS FOR CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME SHOWERS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. ACTIVITY SHOULD
END AROUND SUNSET.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND
ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED AIRFIELD IMPACTS PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN
FALLS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED.
MON...MORNING FOG PSBL EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
353 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO SELF DESTRUCT
CUMULUS WITH THE MORNING SFC HEATING. EXPANDING CU FIELD DUE TO
POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ IS SPREADING
SWD FM THE LWR LKS...STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
6.5-7C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE ON THE SAME PAGE SHOWING CVRG
OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INCREASING INTO THE MID
AFTN HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME INTERACTION WITH A LAKE BREEZE
MAY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP MID- LVL LAPSE RATES MAY
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S OVER THE
LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETTING REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS
FOR THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING
AFTER SUNSET. MAXES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WED AFTN
READINGS AND RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500MB LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY WITH THE MEAN TROF
POSITION MOVING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST LATE THURSDAY...EARLY FRIDAY
WITH JUST A SCHC OF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES.
LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES EASTWARD TREK AS THE PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI- ZONAL ORIENTATION INTO SAT.
AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHS COULD BRING A
WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
EARLY SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS MOVE THIS PERTURBATION FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVERLAYING THE AREA AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MASON DIXON BY 06Z SUN. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD HAVE INCREASED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE...PRESENCE OF DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUNDAY...AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. CURRENTLY THE
ONLY FOR SURE DRY DAYS SEEM TO BE FRIDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH GIVEN
VARIABILITY OF MESOSCALE FEATURES THROUGH SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AT
LONGER RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO
HEDGE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING A FEW DEGS
WARMER EACH DAY. THE CURRENT RUNS ARE TRENDING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER SUNDAY AND MONDAYS
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE MID-SUMMER LIKE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BE COURTESY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL DISRUPT THE MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TUE- WED. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN THIS PATTERN THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT TIMING
VARIATION.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND
ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED AIRFIELD IMPACTS PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN
FALLS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
149 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO SELF DESTRUCT
CUMULUS WITH THE MORNING SFC HEATING. EXPANDING CU FIELD DUE TO
POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT /-20C AT 500 HPA/ IS SPREADING
SWD FM THE LWR LKS...STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
6.5-7C/KM BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH RES HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE ON THE SAME PAGE SHOWING CVRG
OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INCREASING INTO THE MID
AFTN HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME INTERACTION WITH A LAKE BREEZE
MAY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP MID- LVL LAPSE RATES MAY
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S OVER THE
LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETTING REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS
FOR THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LKLY FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING
AFTER SUNSET. MAXES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WED AFTN
READINGS AND RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HE MEAN TROF POSITION WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY WITH
JUST A SCHC OF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM OVR THE NE ZONES. THE PATTERN
WILL TRANSITION TO A FLATTER WNWLY/QUASI- ZONAL ORIENTATION ON
SAT...AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GRT LKS.
TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING A FEW DEGS WARMER EACH DAY. ALL MDL DATA
SUGGESTS A WEAKENING TSTM COMPLEX/DECAYING MCS WILL CROSS THE
UPPER GRT LKS EARLY SAT MORNING AND REACH UPSTATE NY/NEW ENG BY
SAT EVE. CONSENSUS SOLN WOULD KEEP THIS SYS AND ITS ASSOCD IMPACTS
GENERALLY NORTH OF PA...BUT GIVEN SOME SPATIAL MDL DIFFS AND
LOW/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT LONGER
RANGES IN RING-OF-FIRE TYPE PATTERN - WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH
LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MID-SUMMER
LIKE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COURTESY OF A STG UPPER
LEVEL/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES AND SLIDING
EWD TO THE MID-ATLC COAST. CURRENT MEDIAN GUID BLEND HAS HIGHS
PEAKING BTWN 85-90F ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS
WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND
ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER PA THRU THE NEXT 48 HRS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED AIRFIELD IMPACTS PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WHERE RAIN
FALLS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NRN PA SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
351 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...AND RETURNING CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN TACT ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST. COMPACT MID/UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CIRCULATION. TO THE WEST...OTHER THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CO. HAVE SEEN ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AND ALSO ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. MID/UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OK TONIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA
THIS EVENING. STEERING FLOW IS STILL WEAK...SO SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT. HUNG ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING GIVEN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK
CAPPING IN PLACE ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY LOWER THAN IN THE
EAST AND NORTHWEST GIVEN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING ASIDE
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST LAPS AND RAP ANALYSIS DATA SHOW MLCAPES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 1000-2500 J/KG RANGE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHWEST. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/20-30 KTS/ IS ALSO IN THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE
STRONGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF COMPACT UPPER LOW. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IF STORMS MAKE
IT IN...WHILE WEAKER SHEAR WILL KEEP STORMS MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY
ACROSS THE EAST BUT THEY COULD BE STRONG OR BRIEFLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS OVER AN INCH WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. LATE
TONIGHT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A 20-30 KT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
LLJ. ALSO MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DUE TO MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT VSBYS FROM
FALLING REAL LOW.
THE COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS INITIATE IN SOUTHERN CO/NORTHEAST
NM DURING THE AFTERNOON EITHER ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IF THEY DO...CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
UPPER LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING
TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR ONE MORE DAY
THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE REMAINING OVER EASTERN NM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...BELIEVE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO
ANY CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO REBOUND...WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...INDUCING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN
RESPONSE...WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
OFF THIS WEEKEND...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SILENT POPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE EXPANDING AREA WIDE BY
TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND MID
/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACTIVITY.
KB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE 30 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES AND SUNDAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EAST BEHIND
THE DRYLINE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
DURING THIS TIME...SO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE FUELS ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...RECENT
RAINFALL AND EFFECT ON FUELS SHOULD MITIGATE THESE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT.
KB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 63 80 62 86 63 / 30 20 10 10 10
BEAVER OK 64 83 63 89 66 / 20 10 10 10 10
BOISE CITY OK 61 82 60 88 60 / 30 20 20 10 10
BORGER TX 64 81 65 88 68 / 30 20 10 10 10
BOYS RANCH TX 64 85 66 90 65 / 20 20 10 10 10
CANYON TX 63 80 63 86 62 / 30 20 10 10 10
CLARENDON TX 64 79 63 84 64 / 30 30 10 10 10
DALHART TX 59 82 62 90 60 / 20 20 20 10 10
GUYMON OK 63 83 63 89 66 / 20 10 20 10 10
HEREFORD TX 61 81 64 87 62 / 20 20 10 10 10
LIPSCOMB TX 66 81 63 85 68 / 40 20 10 10 10
PAMPA TX 62 79 61 85 64 / 30 20 10 10 10
SHAMROCK TX 65 80 63 84 66 / 40 30 10 10 10
WELLINGTON TX 66 81 65 87 65 / 40 30 10 10 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
07/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1122 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012
.UPDATE...
THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND THE
SUBSIDENT ZONE THAT HAS DOMINATED NORTH TEXAS IS BEING SHUNTED
EAST IN THE PROCESS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS INVADED WESTERN ZONES
AND WILL SOON BE LIFTING A BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER WHOSE MLCAPE
VALUES ALREADY EXCEED 1000 J/KG. WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION AND
FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL FORCING ALOFT...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SOON
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THAT WILL PROPAGATE FURTHER EAST
INTO THE CWA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
LATE MORNING UPDATE ENHANCES POPS IN WESTERN ZONES. MOST OTHER
EDITS INVOLVE HOURLY EVOLUTION OF WINDS AND TEMPS BASED ON ONGOING
OUTFLOW AND FUTURE CONVECTIVE/OUTFLOW EVOLUTION. UPDATED PRODUCTS
AND IMAGES BEING SENT NOW.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE TIMING AND INITIATION. SREF
AND GFS HAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS METROPLEX TAF SITES ALL
NIGHT...WHICH OBVIOUSLY DID NOT HAPPEN. HRRR AT 12Z (NOW) HAS
PRECIP FROM SHERMAN EASTWARD INTO SRN AR. CURRENT NAM PRECIP IS
ABOUT TWO COUNTIES TWO FAR EAST. POOR INITIALIZATION ACROSS THE
BOARD GIVES LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION AT
METROPLEX. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS TIMING OF STORMS DURING MAX HEATING
ON TOWARDS SUNSET AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. HAVE DROPPED THE TEMPO GROUPS FROM THURSDAY MORNING AND
LEFT VCTS BECAUSE MODELS SEEM TO BE DRIER IN THAT TIME PERIOD AS
WELL. WILL HOPE THAT 12Z GUIDANCE IS INITIALIZED BETTER AND LET
THE DAY SHIFT MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES TO STORM TIMING. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2012/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SLOW-MOVING WARM CORE UPPER
LOW MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED NEAR
SWEETWATER...LUBBOCK AND BIG SPRING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
STORMS. THIS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK BETTER ON RADAR AND
WILL LIKELY HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW A BIT...DUE TO LATENT HEAT
PROCESSES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE PW VALUES HIGHER FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW...AS THE DRIER AIR TENDS TO LIMIT
THE HEAT FLUX. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING EAST OF THE
CWA...WITHIN A SHEAR AXIS ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH
TEXAS...EXCEPT FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST
TODAY...BUT THE MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW...IMPACTED BY A
BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
OUTPUT IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP TODAY. SEVERAL
WRF MEMBERS ONLY HAVE A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION.
WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED CLOSER TO NORTH
TEXAS AND TONIGHTS ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN MOVE EAST...WEAKENING IN THE MORNING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAN THE NAM. THE NAM IS PLACING MOST OF ITS QPF SOUTH OF
I-20...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TO THE NORTH. WILL STICK WITH THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION...BUT THE EXACT LATITUDE THE MAIN FORCING
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS THE MOST RAINFALL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
END PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS 850 TEMPS OF 25-29C WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
THE GFS SENDS A DEEP LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
THE MODEL IS PROGGING A COLD FRONT WITH PRECIP TO REACH THE
NORTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY EVENING. NORTH TEXAS WILL STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM
PLAUSIBLE. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT/PRECIP
NORTH OF THE CWA. MEXMOS IS FORECASTING 30 POPS TUESDAY...BUT WILL
KEEP THE SILENT 10S IN THE FORECAST.
85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 71 85 69 87 / 70 70 60 50 20
WACO, TX 93 72 88 70 89 / 50 40 30 40 20
PARIS, TX 89 66 87 65 85 / 50 60 40 50 30
DENTON, TX 87 70 85 68 86 / 70 70 60 50 20
MCKINNEY, TX 88 68 84 66 86 / 60 70 60 50 30
DALLAS, TX 89 72 85 69 87 / 70 70 50 50 30
TERRELL, TX 90 70 85 68 86 / 50 70 50 50 30
CORSICANA, TX 93 71 86 70 87 / 50 60 30 50 30
TEMPLE, TX 93 71 85 70 89 / 40 30 30 30 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 87 69 83 68 85 / 70 70 60 50 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/25