Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/05/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1250 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO NEW YORK TODAY...AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY. IT
WILL LINGER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE REGION WILL
HAVE TO ENDURE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM. SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION
(ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY) AS SURFACE HEATING AND
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. PREVIOUS FORECAST
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH LIKELY POPS FOR ALL AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON.
LIGHTNING DETECTION INDICATE ANY CONVECTION STRONG ENOUGH FOR CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IS STILL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION...BUT WOULD EXPECT LIGHTNING TO BEGIN OCCURRING OVER THE ALY
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY SO HAVE LEFT ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST.
****PREVIOUS DISCUSSION****
SOME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE 500HPA CUT
OFF...DIURNAL HEATING ATMOS WILL TURN CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE WITH
INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA...AND PSBLE TSTMS AFT 15UTC.
H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
WAS TRACKING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...AN INCREASE IN THE AC DECK WITH EVEN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND AREA
METARS ACROSS THE CWFA SHOW AMPLE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS.
HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE EXPANDING AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS/FOG FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...PORTIONS OF THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS STRATUS
DECK MAY EXPAND A BIT INTO THE CLEAR SKIES REGION AS THOSE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NARROW EVEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OCCURS...MAY CONSIDER
AN SPS FOR THOSE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AREAS.
OTHERWISE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION EXTENDING FROM THE TUG HILL...CAPITAL DISTRICT...BERKS AND
OUT TOWARD CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL JET AXIS...CENTERED AROUND
500MB...WITH MAGNITUDES >=50KTS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WAS TRACKING EASTWARD WHERE THE -20C AIR
RESIDES. LATEST RAP AND NCEP MODEL SUITE ALL SUGGEST THESE FEATURES
WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AS LEFT EXIT REGION BECOMES IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TOWARD 18Z. MEANWHILE....DIURNAL HEATING OF THE JUNE HIGH
SUN ANGLE WILL ASSIST WITH THE SURFACE PARCELS BECOMING BUOYANT WITH
PROGGED SBCAPES IN THE MID-UPPER 100S J/KG. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 8000 FEET COULD PRODUCE
SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WE WILL INCLUDE
THIS IN THE HWO AND GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITIES FROM SEVERAL MESOSCALE RESOURCES ALL
SUGGEST A ROBUST SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...THOSE REFLECTIVITIES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF COOL AND MOIST
AIR IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. OMEGA FIELDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
AND WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH POPS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ALONG WITH THE TRENDS SEEN IN THE LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. RANGE GENERALLY
LOWER 70S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TONIGHT`S LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN MID 40S AND LOWER 50S
CWA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW THAT IS
ANCHORED OVER THE IMMEDIATE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY THE CUTOFF
INTERACTS WITH COASTAL LOW OFF NOVA SCOTIA AND THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT ALLOWS THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ISENTROPIC LIFT LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL INTO THE N ATLC...AND
THE COLD CONVEYOR INFLOW BREAKS DOWN.
THIS LEAVES THE RGN ON THE WEST SIDE OF 500HPA CUT OFF FOR DAYS.
PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED BY THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF...THE DIURNAL CYCLE INSTABILITY AS 500HPA TEMPS REMAIN
-18C TO -20C...AND AN EVOLVING 1000 MILE PLUS BUT WEAKENING
EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE COOL NORTH ATLC. THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN THE MDL SUITE IS THE DIURNAL CYCLE...SO WILL WILL UP POPS IN
AFTNS.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE CUTOFF CASES...THE MDLS OVER DO THE
CLOUDS AND PCPN...AND HAVE A TENDENCY TO SEEM LIKE ITS GOING TO RAIN
FOR DAYS. WILL TRY TO MINIMIZE THIS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WITH VRBL
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS AM...CHC POPS PM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO
TO WELL BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500HPA CUT OFF CENTER FINALLY IS EJECTED INTO THE N ATLC.
HWVR THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS UNDER A LARGE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT (-20C) THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH
PASSES THROUGH REGION IN THE WAY OF FRONTS...IN THE PSEUDO
BAROTROPIC REGIME WE ARE IN. WITH A LITTLE IMAGINATION ONE MIGHT
FIND A 500HPA SHORT WV IN THIS FLOW. BUT THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL
BE THE DRIVER OF CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA INTO FRI. MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AT THE PEAK OF DIURNAL CYCLE...LESS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING.
THE SIGNAL OF THE END OF OUR COOL 500HPA CUTOFF DOMINATED PATTERN
HAS BEEN IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SVRL RUNS. THIS IS THE BUILDING OF A
VERY LARGE 500HPA RIDGE INTO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL
BE ACCOMP BY A VERY NOTICEABLE WARM UP. THE FIRST PART OF THAT WILL
COME SAT AS A WMFNT AND WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND SCT -TSTMS/-SHRA SPILL
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG HAS BURNED OFF WITH THE STRATUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY BURNING OFF.
MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER AT KGFL. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW ARE
MOVING INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC HAS BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. THE
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL
ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
LOWER CIGS AND THE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM TO THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...SEEMS
THE MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE FROM CIGS.
THEN FURTHER RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS A SHIELD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS IN THE SOLID MVFR WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA. CHC LATE NIGHT IFR WITH FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WITHIN BANK RISES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER
STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
930 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO NEW YORK TODAY...AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY. IT
WILL LINGER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE REGION WILL
ENDURE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING FOG FROM FORECAST...FOG HAS BURNED OFF.
THE STRATUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY BURNING OFF. FORECAST ON
TRACK AS UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA
AND TRENDS.
AT 630 AM...AREAS OF FOG MAINLY IN DEEP VLYS DIMINISHING ATTM. TMPS
SVRL DEGREES ABV GRIDS...AND WERE ADJUSTED AND BLENDED W/NEW
GUIDANCE. OTRW 500HPA LOW IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SE S OF OTTAWA VLY.
COMBINATION OF ITS COLD CORE AND LK EFFECT RESPONSE PRODUCING
-SHRA OVER WNY...AND ISOLD TSTMS OFF LK ERIE WHICH HAS SFC WATER
TMPS IN UPPER 50S.
AFTER MRNG CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF...THEY WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD
OF SELF DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
500HPA CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING ATMOS WILL TURN CONVECTIVELY
UNSTABLE WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA...AND PSBLE TSTMS AFT 15UTC.
H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
WAS TRACKING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...AN INCREASE IN THE AC DECK WITH EVEN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND AREA
METARS ACROSS THE CWFA SHOW AMPLE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS.
HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE EXPANDING AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS/FOG FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...PORTIONS OF THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS STRATUS
DECK MAY EXPAND A BIT INTO THE CLEAR SKIES REGION AS THOSE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NARROW EVEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OCCURS...MAY CONSIDER
AN SPS FOR THOSE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AREAS.
OTHERWISE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION EXTENDING FROM THE TUG HILL...CAPITAL DISTRICT...BERKS AND
OUT TOWARD CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL JET AXIS...CENTERED AROUND
500MB...WITH MAGNITUDES >=50KTS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WAS TRACKING EASTWARD WHERE THE -20C AIR
RESIDES. LATEST RAP AND NCEP MODEL SUITE ALL SUGGEST THESE FEATURES
WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AS LEFT EXIT REGION BECOMES IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TOWARD 18Z. MEANWHILE....DIURNAL HEATING OF THE JUNE HIGH
SUN ANGLE WILL ASSIST WITH THE SURFACE PARCELS BECOMING BUOYANT WITH
PROGGED SBCAPES IN THE MID-UPPER 100S J/KG. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 8000 FEET COULD PRODUCE
SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WE WILL INCLUDE
THIS IN THE HWO AND GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITIES FROM SEVERAL MESOSCALE RESOURCES ALL
SUGGEST A ROBUST SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...THOSE REFLECTIVITIES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF COOL AND MOIST
AIR IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. OMEGA FIELDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
AND WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH POPS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ALONG WITH THE TRENDS SEEN IN THE LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. RANGE GENERALLY
LOWER 70S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TONIGHT`S LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN MID 40S AND LOWER 50S
CWA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW THAT IS
ANCHORED OVER THE IMMEDIATE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY THE CUTOFF
INTERACTS WITH COASTAL LOW OFF NOVA SCOTIA AND THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT ALLOWS THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ISENTROPIC LIFT LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL INTO THE N ATLC...AND
THE COLD CONVEYOR INFLOW BREAKS DOWN.
THIS LEAVES THE RGN ON THE WEST SIDE OF 500HPA CUT OFF FOR DAYS.
PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED BY THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF...THE DIURNAL CYCLE INSTABILITY AS 500HPA TEMPS REMAIN
-18C TO -20C...AND AN EVOLVING 1000 MILE PLUS BUT WEAKENING
EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE COOL NORTH ATLC. THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN THE MDL SUITE IS THE DIURNAL CYCLE...SO WILL WILL UP POPS IN
AFTNS.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE CUTOFF CASES...THE MDLS OVER DO THE
CLOUDS AND PCPN...AND HAVE A TENDENCY TO SEEM LIKE ITS GOING TO RAIN
FOR DAYS. WILL TRY TO MINIMIZE THIS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WITH VRBL
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS AM...CHC POPS PM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO
TO WELL BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500HPA CUT OFF CENTER FINALLY IS EJECTED INTO THE N ATLC.
HWVR THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS UNDER A LARGE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT (-20C) THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH
PASSES THROUGH REGION IN THE WAY OF FRONTS...IN THE PSEUDO
BAROTROPIC REGIME WE ARE IN. WITH A LITTLE IMAGINATION ONE MIGHT
FIND A 500HPA SHORT WV IN THIS FLOW. BUT THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL
BE THE DRIVER OF CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA INTO FRI. MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AT THE PEAK OF DIURNAL CYCLE...LESS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING.
THE SIGNAL OF THE END OF OUR COOL 500HPA CUTOFF DOMINATED PATTERN
HAS BEEN IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SVRL RUNS. THIS IS THE BUILDING OF A
VERY LARGE 500HPA RIDGE INTO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL
BE ACCOMP BY A VERY NOTICEABLE WARM UP. THE FIRST PART OF THAT WILL
COME SAT AS A WMFNT AND WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND SCT -TSTMS/-SHRA SPILL
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG HAS BURNED OFF WITH THE STRATUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY BURNING OFF.
MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER AT KGFL. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW ARE
MOVING INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC HAS BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. THE
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL
ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
LOWER CIGS AND THE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM TO THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...SEEMS
THE MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE FROM CIGS.
THEN FURTHER RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS A SHIELD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS IN THE SOLID MVFR WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA. CHC LATE NIGHT IFR WITH FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WITHIN BANK RISES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER
STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO NEW YORK TODAY...AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY. IT
WILL LINGER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE REGION WILL
ENDURE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 630 AM...AREAS OF FOG MAINLY IN DEEP VLYS DIMINISHING ATTM. TMPS
SVRL DEGREES ABV GRIDS...AND WERE ADJUSTED AND BLENDED W/NEW
GUIDANCE. OTRW 500HPA LOW IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SE S OF OTTAWA VLY.
COMBINATION OF ITS COLD CORE AND LK EFFECT RESPONSE PRODUCING
-SHRA OVER WNY...AND ISOLD TSTMS OFF LK ERIE WHICH HAS SFC WATER
TMPS IN UPPER 50S.
AFTR MRNG CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF...THEY WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD
OF SELF DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
500HPA CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING ATMOS WILL TURN CONVECTIVELY
UNSTABLE WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA...AND PSBLE TSTMS AFT 15UTC.
H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
WAS TRACKING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...AN INCREASE IN THE AC DECK WITH EVEN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND AREA
METARS ACROSS THE CWFA SHOW AMPLE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS.
HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE EXPANDING AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS/FOG FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...PORTIONS OF THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS STRATUS
DECK MAY EXPAND A BIT INTO THE CLEAR SKIES REGION AS THOSE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NARROW EVEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OCCURS...MAY CONSIDER
AN SPS FOR THOSE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AREAS.
OTHERWISE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION EXTENDING FROM THE TUG HILL...CAPITAL DISTRICT...BERKS AND
OUT TOWARD CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL JET AXIS...CENTERED AROUND
500MB...WITH MAGNITUDES >=50KTS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WAS TRACKING EASTWARD WHERE THE -20C AIR
RESIDES. LATEST RAP AND NCEP MODEL SUITE ALL SUGGEST THESE FEATURES
WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AS LEFT EXIT REGION BECOMES IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TOWARD 18Z. MEANWHILE....DIURNAL HEATING OF THE JUNE HIGH
SUN ANGLE WILL ASSIST WITH THE SURFACE PARCELS BECOMING BUOYANT WITH
PROGGED SBCAPES IN THE MID-UPPER 100S J/KG. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 8000 FEET COULD PRODUCE
SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WE WILL INCLUDE
THIS IN THE HWO AND GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITIES FROM SEVERAL MESOSCALE RESOURCES ALL
SUGGEST A ROBUST SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...THOSE REFLECTIVITIES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF COOL AND MOIST
AIR IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. OMEGA FIELDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
AND WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH POPS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ALONG WITH THE TRENDS SEEN IN THE LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. RANGE GENERALLY
LOWER 70S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TONIGHT`S LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN MID 40S AND LOWER 50S
CWA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW THAT IS
ANCHORED OVER THE IMMEDIATE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY THE CUTOFF
INTERACTS WITH COASTAL LOW OFF NOVA SCOTIA AND THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT ALLOWS THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ISENTROPIC LIFT LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL INTO THE N ATLC...AND
THE COLD CONVEYOR INFLOW BREAKS DOWN.
THIS LEAVES THE RGN ON THE WEST SIDE OF 500HPA CUT OFF FOR DAYS.
PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED BY THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF...THE DIURNAL CYCLE INSTABILITY AS 500HPA TEMPS REMAIN
-18C TO -20C...AND AN EVOLVING 1000 MILE PLUS BUT WEAKENING
EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE COOL NORTH ATLC. THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN THE MDL SUITE IS THE DIURNAL CYCLE...SO WILL WILL UP POPS IN
AFTNS.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE CUTOFF CASES...THE MDLS OVER DO THE
CLOUDS AND PCPN...AND HAVE A TENDENCY TO SEEM LIKE ITS GOING TO RAIN
FOR DAYS. WILL TRY TO MINIMIZE THIS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WITH VRBL
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS AM...CHC POPS PM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO
TO WELL BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500HPA CUT OFF CENTER FINALLY IS EJECTED INTO THE N ATLC.
HWVR THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS UNDER A LARGE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT (-20C) THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH
PASSES THROUGH REGION IN THE WAY OF FRONTS...IN THE PSEUDO
BAROTROPIC REGIME WE ARE IN. WITH A LITTLE IMAGINATION ONE MIGHT
FIND A 500HPA SHORT WV IN THIS FLOW. BUT THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL
BE THE DRIVER OF CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA INTO FRI. MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AT THE PEAK OF DIURNAL CYCLE...LESS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING.
THE SIGNAL OF THE END OF OUR COOL 500HPA CUTOFF DOMINATED PATTERN
HAS BEEN IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SVRL RUNS. THIS IS THE BUILDING OF A
VERY LARGE 500HPA RIDGE INTO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL
BE ACCOMP BY A VERY NOTICEABLE WARM UP. THE FIRST PART OF THAT WILL
COME SAT AS A WMFNT AND WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND SCT -TSTMS/-SHRA SPILL
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDE VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY REGION AND LIFR FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. NOW THAT
SUNRISE HAS OCCURRED...THIS SHOULD HELP WITH LIFTING THE LIFR
CONDITIONS TO IFR THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING. AS WINDS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...THOSE CIGS AND VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
HAS BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SHORT
WAVE. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT LOWER CIGS AND THE HIGH PROBABILITIES
OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...SEEMS THE MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD
BE FROM CIGS.
THEN FURTHER RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS A SHIELD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS IN THE SOLID MVFR WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA. CHC LATE NIGHT IFR WITH FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WITHIN BANK RISES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER
STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SPRING 2012 (MARCH...APRIL...MAY) WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST ON RECORD
FOR ALBANY NY WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 52.3 DEGREES (5.3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
TOP 10 WARMEST SPRINGS FOR ALBANY NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1820
1) 52.5 DEGREES 1859
2) 52.3 DEGREES 1871
1921
2012
5) 51.9 DEGREES 1831
6) 51.3 DEGREES 1903
7) 51.1 DEGREES 1846
8) 50.7 DEGREES 1830
9) 50.6 DEGREES 1991
10) 50.4 DEGREES 1826
MARCH 2012 WAS THE WARMEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
45.9 DEGREES (10.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
APRIL 2012 WAS NEAR NORMAL WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 48.1
DEGREES (0.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
MAY 2012 MISSED MAKING THE TOP 10 WARMEST BY 0.7 DEGREES WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 63.1 DEGREES (4.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
SPRING 2012 (MARCH...APRIL...MAY) AVERAGE TEMPERATURES:
GLENS FALLS NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
49.2 DEGREES (5.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WARMEST ON RECORD
POUGHKEEPSIE NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
54.2 DEGREES (6.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WARMEST ON RECORD
BENNINGTON VT: 49.9 DEGREES (5.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
PITTSFIELD MA: 49.4 DEGREES (5.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
FOR MORE GO TO OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/LOCAL_DATA.PHP?WFO=ALY
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
628 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO NEW YORK TODAY...AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY. IT
WILL LINGER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE REGION WILL
ENDURE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 630 AM...AREAS OF FOG MAINLY IN DEEP VLYS DIMINISHING ATTM. TMPS
SVRL DEGREES ABV GRIDS...AND WERE ADJUSTED AND BLENDED W/NEW
GUIDANCE. OTRW 500HPA LOW IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SE S OF OTTAWA VLY.
COMBINATION OF ITS COLD CORE AND LK EFFECT RESPONSE PRODUCING
-SHRA OVER WNY...AND ISOLD TSTMS OFF LK ERIE WHICH HAS SFC WATER
TMPS IN UPPER 50S.
AFTR MRNG CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF...THEY WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD
OF SELF DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
500HPA CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING ATMOS WILL TURN CONVECTIVELY
UNSTABLE WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA...AND PSBLE TSTMS AFT 15UTC.
H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
WAS TRACKING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...AN INCREASE IN THE AC DECK WITH EVEN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND AREA
METARS ACROSS THE CWFA SHOW AMPLE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS.
HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE EXPANDING AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS/FOG FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...PORTIONS OF THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS STRATUS
DECK MAY EXPAND A BIT INTO THE CLEAR SKIES REGION AS THOSE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NARROW EVEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OCCURS...MAY CONSIDER
AN SPS FOR THOSE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AREAS.
OTHERWISE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION EXTENDING FROM THE TUG HILL...CAPITAL DISTRICT...BERKS AND
OUT TOWARD CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL JET AXIS...CENTERED AROUND
500MB...WITH MAGNITUDES >=50KTS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WAS TRACKING EASTWARD WHERE THE -20C AIR
RESIDES. LATEST RAP AND NCEP MODEL SUITE ALL SUGGEST THESE FEATURES
WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AS LEFT EXIT REGION BECOMES IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TOWARD 18Z. MEANWHILE....DIURNAL HEATING OF THE JUNE HIGH
SUN ANGLE WILL ASSIST WITH THE SURFACE PARCELS BECOMING BUOYANT WITH
PROGGED SBCAPES IN THE MID-UPPER 100S J/KG. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 8000 FEET COULD PRODUCE
SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WE WILL INCLUDE
THIS IN THE HWO AND GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITIES FROM SEVERAL MESOSCALE RESOURCES ALL
SUGGEST A ROBUST SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...THOSE REFLECTIVITIES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF COOL AND MOIST
AIR IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. OMEGA FIELDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
AND WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH POPS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ALONG WITH THE TRENDS SEEN IN THE LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. RANGE GENERALLY
LOWER 70S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TONIGHT`S LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN MID 40S AND LOWER 50S
CWA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW THAT IS
ANCHORED OVER THE IMMEDIATE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY THE CUTOFF
INTERACTS WITH COASTAL LOW OFF NOVA SCOTIA AND THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT ALLOWS THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ISENTROPIC LIFT LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL INTO THE N ATLC...AND
THE COLD CONVEYOR INFLOW BREAKS DOWN.
THIS LEAVES THE RGN ON THE WEST SIDE OF 500HPA CUT OFF FOR DAYS.
PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED BY THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF...THE DIURNAL CYCLE INSTABILITY AS 500HPA TEMPS REMAIN
-18C TO -20C...AND AN EVOLVING 1000 MILE PLUS BUT WEAKENING
EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE COOL NORTH ATLC. THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN THE MDL SUITE IS THE DIURNAL CYCLE...SO WILL WILL UP POPS IN
AFTNS.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE CUTOFF CASES...THE MDLS OVER DO THE CLOUDS
AND PCPN...AND HAVE A TENDENCY TO SEEM LIKE ITS GOING TO RAIN FOR
DAYS. WILL TRY TO MINIMIZE THIS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WITH VRBL
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS AM...CHC POPS PM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500HPA CUT OFF CENTER FINALLY IS EJECTED INTO THE N ATLC.
HWVR THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS UNDER A LARGE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT (-20C) THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH
PASSES THROUGH REGION IN THE WAY OF FRONTS...IN THE PSEUDO
BAROTROPIC REGIME WE ARE IN. WITH A LITTLE IMAGINATION ONE MIGHT
FIND A 500HPA SHORT WV IN THIS FLOW. BUT THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL
BE THE DRIVER OF CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA INTO FRI. MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AT THE PEAK OF DIURNAL CYCLE...LESS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING.
THE SIGNAL OF THE END OF OUR COOL 500HPA CUTOFF DOMINATED PATTERN
HAS BEEN IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SVRL RUNS. THIS IS THE BUILDING OF
A VERY LARGE 500HPA RIDGE INTO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL
BE ACCOMP BY A VERY NOTICEABLE WARM UP. THE FIRST PART OF THAT WILL COME
SAT AS A WMFNT AND WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND SCT -TSTMS/-SHRA SPILL
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHALLENGING TAF FORECASTS OVERNIGHT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHILE SOME SOME LOWER STRATUS ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. SO WE WILL ATTEMPT TO
COVER THE LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORY THRESHOLDS IN A TEMPO GROUP AND
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...UPSTREAM THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WE WILL
PLACE A VCSH AND KEEP CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS.
LOWER CIGS AND PERHAPS VIS WILL REAPPEAR SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME
WESTERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NT-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA. CHC LATE NIGHT IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WITHIN BANK RISES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER
STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SPRING 2012 (MARCH...APRIL...MAY) WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST ON RECORD
FOR ALBANY NY WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 52.3 DEGREES (5.3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
TOP 10 WARMEST SPRINGS FOR ALBANY NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1820
1) 52.5 DEGREES 1859
2) 52.3 DEGREES 1871
1921
2012
5) 51.9 DEGREES 1831
6) 51.3 DEGREES 1903
7) 51.1 DEGREES 1846
8) 50.7 DEGREES 1830
9) 50.6 DEGREES 1991
10) 50.4 DEGREES 1826
MARCH 2012 WAS THE WARMEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
45.9 DEGREES (10.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
APRIL 2012 WAS NEAR NORMAL WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 48.1
DEGREES (0.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
MAY 2012 MISSED MAKING THE TOP 10 WARMEST BY 0.7 DEGREES WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 63.1 DEGREES (4.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
SPRING 2012 (MARCH...APRIL...MAY) AVERAGE TEMPERATURES:
GLENS FALLS NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
49.2 DEGREES (5.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WARMEST ON RECORD
POUGHKEEPSIE NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
54.2 DEGREES (6.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WARMEST ON RECORD
BENNINGTON VT: 49.9 DEGREES (5.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
PITTSFIELD MA: 49.4 DEGREES (5.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
FOR MORE GO TO OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/LOCAL_DATA.PHP?WFO=ALY
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
340 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO NEW YORK TODAY...AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY. IT
WILL LINGER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE REGION WILL
ENDURE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS
TRACKING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS
LAKE ERIE THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AN
INCREASE IN THE AC DECK WITH EVEN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY. A
CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND AREA METARS ACROSS
THE CWFA SHOW AMPLE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS. HOWEVER...THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE EXPANDING AREA OF LOWER
STRATUS/FOG FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...PORTIONS OF THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS STRATUS
DECK MAY EXPAND A BIT INTO THE CLEAR SKIES REGION AS THOSE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS NARROW EVEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OCCURS...MAY CONSIDER AN SPS FOR THOSE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AREAS.
OTHERWISE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION EXTENDING FROM THE TUG HILL...CAPITAL DISTRICT...BERKS AND
OUT TOWARD CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL JET AXIS...CENTERED AROUND
500MB...WITH MAGNITUDES >=50KTS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WAS TRACKING EASTWARD WHERE THE -20C AIR
RESIDES. LATEST RAP AND NCEP MODEL SUITE ALL SUGGEST THESE FEATURES
WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AS LEFT EXIT REGION BECOMES IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TOWARD 18Z. MEANWHILE....DIURNAL HEATING OF THE JUNE HIGH
SUN ANGLE WILL ASSIST WITH THE SURFACE PARCELS BECOMING BUOYANT WITH
PROGGED SBCAPES IN THE MID-UPPER 100S J/KG. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 8000 FEET COULD PRODUCE
SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WE WILL INCLUDE
THIS IN THE HWO AND GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITIES FROM SEVERAL MESOSCALE RESOURCES ALL
SUGGEST A ROBUST SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...THOSE REFLECTIVITIES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF COOL AND MOIST
AIR IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. OMEGA FIELDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
AND WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH POPS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ALONG WITH THE TRENDS SEEN IN THE LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. RANGE GENERALLY
LOWER 70S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TONIGHT`S LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN MID 40S AND LOWER 50S
CWA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW THAT IS
ANCHORED OVER THE IMMEDIATE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY THE CUTOFF
INTERACTS WITH COASTAL LOW OFF NOVA SCOTIA AND THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT ALLOWS THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ISENTROPIC LIFT LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL INTO THE N ATLC...AND
THE COLD CONVEYOR INFLOW BREAKS DOWN.
THIS LEAVES THE RGN ON THE WEST SIDE OF 500HPA CUT OFF FOR DAYS.
PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED BY THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF...THE DIURNAL CYCLE INSTABILITY AS 500HPA TEMPS REMAIN
-18C TO -20C...AND AN EVOLVING 1000 MILE PLUS BUT WEAKENING
EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE COOL NORTH ATLC. THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN THE MDL SUITE IS THE DIURNAL CYCLE...SO WILL WILL UP POPS IN
AFTNS.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE CUTOFF CASES...THE MDLS OVER DO THE CLOUDS
AND PCPN...AND HAVE A TENDENCY TO SEEM LIKE ITS GOING TO RAIN FOR
DAYS. WILL TRY TO MINIMIZE THIS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WITH VRBL
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS AM...CHC POPS PM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500HPA CUT OFF CENTER FINALLY IS EJECTED INTO THE N ATLC.
HWVR THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS UNDER A LARGE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT (-20C) THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH
PASSES THROUGH REGION IN THE WAY OF FRONTS...IN THE PSEUDO
BAROTROPIC REGIME WE ARE IN. WITH A LITTLE IMAGINATION ONE MIGHT
FIND A 500HPA SHORT WV IN THIS FLOW. BUT THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL
BE THE DRIVER OF CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA INTO FRI. MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AT THE PEAK OF DIURNAL CYCLE...LESS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING.
THE SIGNAL OF THE END OF OUR COOL 500HPA CUTOFF DOMINATED PATTERN
HAS BEEN IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SVRL RUNS. THIS IS THE BUILDING OF
A VERY LARGE 500HPA RIDGE INTO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL
BE ACCOMP BY A VERY NOTICEABLE WARM UP. THE FIRST PART OF THAT WILL COME
SAT AS A WMFNT AND WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND SCT -TSTMS/-SHRA SPILL
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHALLENGING TAF FORECASTS OVERNIGHT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHILE SOME SOME LOWER STRATUS ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. SO WE WILL ATTEMPT TO
COVER THE LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORY THRESHOLDS IN A TEMPO GROUP AND
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...UPSTREAM THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WE WILL
PLACE A VCSH AND KEEP CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS.
LOWER CIGS AND PERHAPS VIS WILL REAPPEAR SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME
WESTERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NT-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA. CHC LATE NIGHT IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WITHIN BANK RISES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER
STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SPRING 2012 (MARCH...APRIL...MAY) WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST ON RECORD
FOR ALBANY NY WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 52.3 DEGREES (5.3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
TOP 10 WARMEST SPRINGS FOR ALBANY NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1820
1) 52.5 DEGREES 1859
2) 52.3 DEGREES 1871
1921
2012
5) 51.9 DEGREES 1831
6) 51.3 DEGREES 1903
7) 51.1 DEGREES 1846
8) 50.7 DEGREES 1830
9) 50.6 DEGREES 1991
10) 50.4 DEGREES 1826
MARCH 2012 WAS THE WARMEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
45.9 DEGREES (10.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
APRIL 2012 WAS NEAR NORMAL WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 48.1
DEGREES (0.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
MAY 2012 MISSED MAKING THE TOP 10 WARMEST BY 0.7 DEGREES WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 63.1 DEGREES (4.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
SPRING 2012 (MARCH...APRIL...MAY) AVERAGE TEMPERATURES:
GLENS FALLS NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
49.2 DEGREES (5.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WARMEST ON RECORD
POUGHKEEPSIE NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
54.2 DEGREES (6.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WARMEST ON RECORD
BENNINGTON VT: 49.9 DEGREES (5.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
PITTSFIELD MA: 49.4 DEGREES (5.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
FOR MORE GO TO OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/LOCAL_DATA.PHP?WFO=ALY
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
249 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 18Z...SEA BREEZES ARE BEGINNING TO SET UP ALONG THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
90 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...STILL
BELIEVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH SEVERAL
HOURS OF HEATING LEFT. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND NOW THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS SEEMS TO
AGREE. EITHER WAY...BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH HEATING LOSS.
BY MONDAY...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK
DOWN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE SWINGS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN COAST WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE STRAITS ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES WELL TO THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW COMBINED WITH
A CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL ALLOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL CONTINUE. OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE EAST
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ONSHORE BY 19Z AS A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. A FEW TSTORMS COULD DEVELOP, MOST
PROBABLE JUST WEST OF KTMB, SO ADDED VCTS THERE. STORM MOTION
COULD SEND A FEW STORMS TO THE SE COAST BUT GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY
DECIDED TO LEAVE VCTS OUT OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
OR CALM TONIGHT. UNCERTAIN ABOUT INITIAL WINDS MON MORNING BUT
BEST ESTIMATE IS BEGINNING SW BEFORE BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAPF TO PREVAIL SW THRU THE DAY MONDAY. A
FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST TERMINALS MONDAY...BUT AFT
18Z/BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD. /GREGORIA
&&
.MARINE...SEA BREEZES GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL TAPER OFF
AFTER SUNDOWN. WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. SEAS GENERALLY 4 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 90 75 89 / - 20 10 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 89 78 90 / - 20 20 40
MIAMI 76 91 77 90 / - 20 20 40
NAPLES 74 90 74 88 / - 10 10 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...VFR WILL CONTINUE. OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE EAST
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ONSHORE BY 19Z AS A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. A FEW TSTORMS COULD DEVELOP, MOST
PROBABLE JUST WEST OF KTMB, SO ADDED VCTS THERE. STORM MOTION
COULD SEND A FEW STORMS TO THE SE COAST BUT GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY
DECIDED TO LEAVE VCTS OUT OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT. UNCERTAIN ABOUT INITIAL WINDS MON MORNING
BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS BEGINNING SW BEFORE BECOMING SE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAPF TO PREVAIL SW THRU THE DAY
MONDAY. A FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST TERMINALS
MONDAY...BUT AFT 18Z/BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
UPDATE...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AS OF 13Z. 12Z MFL SOUNDING CAME IN DRY ALOFT WITH A PWAT
VALUE OF 1.18 INCHES WITH HIGHER VALUES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
WITH NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND BETTER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...COULD SPARK A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST HRRR AS WELL AS SREF ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES DO DEPICT SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. UPDATED TO INCLUDE THUNDER
ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD PUSH INLAND AROUND 18Z
WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL ALSO PUSH INLAND AROUND 10 KNOTS. WITH SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE TAF SITES
TODAY. A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AND
THEN A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW MAY OCCUR FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MAINTAINED SOME OF
ITS INTEGRITY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT
WILL SOON DISINTEGRATE AS IT EASES SOUTHEAST. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY, ESPECIALLY AS A LINGERING TROUGH HAS FINALLY PUSHED
EAST AND A BUILDING DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS ADVANCING INTO THE
REGION. LIFT WILL REMAIN RATHER INSIGNIFICANT TODAY WITH NO
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A
GRADUAL AND MODEST INCREASE IN COLUMNAR MOISTURE, BUT MAINLY
AFTER 21Z. SO WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER,
ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 90 TO THE MID 90S IN A FEW INTERIOR
LOCALES.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR
CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS, THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY STAY CLOSER TO COAST
AND NOT FULLY DEVELOP UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE
INLAND, IT MAY INDUCE ENOUGH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BUT, OVERALL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW AND SHOULD WORK
TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL AGAIN WARM
NICELY, PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, INCLUDING THE EAST COAST METRO.
THE RIDGE WILL ERODE ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, RESULTING IN THE
TRANSPORT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL
ESSENTIALLY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO OUR
WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BETTER FORCING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT FARTHER
NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NEVERTHELESS, THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND OVERALL PATTERN, INCLUDING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. UNDER THESE REGIMES, THE RISK FOR STRONG STORMS IS
TYPICALLY ENHANCED. AS THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLUGGISHLY
MOVES SOUTH AND APPROACHES THE AREA, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. A WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KAPF. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WELL TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION, WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK TODAY UNDER
THE RESULTING WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST. SEAS GENERALLY 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MID WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 73 91 75 / - - 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 76 91 78 / 10 - 20 20
MIAMI 91 76 92 77 / 20 - 20 20
NAPLES 89 74 89 75 / - - 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
951 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.UPDATE...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AS OF 13Z. 12Z MFL SOUNDING CAME IN DRY ALOFT WITH A PWAT
VALUE OF 1.18 INCHES WITH HIGHER VALUES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
WITH NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND BETTER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SHOULD SPARK A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST HRRR AS WELL AS SREF ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES DO DEPICT SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. UPDATED TO INCLUDE THUNDER
ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD PUSH INLAND AROUND 18Z
WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL ALSO PUSH INLAND AROUND 10 KNOTS. WITH SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE TAF SITES
TODAY. A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AND
THEN A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW MAY OCCUR FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MAINTAINED SOME OF
ITS INTEGRITY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT
WILL SOON DISINTEGRATE AS IT EASES SOUTHEAST. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY, ESPECIALLY AS A LINGERING TROUGH HAS FINALLY PUSHED
EAST AND A BUILDING DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS ADVANCING INTO THE
REGION. LIFT WILL REMAIN RATHER INSIGNIFICANT TODAY WITH NO
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A
GRADUAL AND MODEST INCREASE IN COLUMNAR MOISTURE, BUT MAINLY
AFTER 21Z. SO WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER,
ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 90 TO THE MID 90S IN A FEW INTERIOR
LOCALES.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR
CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS, THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY STAY CLOSER TO COAST
AND NOT FULLY DEVELOP UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE
INLAND, IT MAY INDUCE ENOUGH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BUT, OVERALL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW AND SHOULD WORK
TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL AGAIN WARM
NICELY, PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, INCLUDING THE EAST COAST METRO.
THE RIDGE WILL ERODE ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, RESULTING IN THE
TRANSPORT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL
ESSENTIALLY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO OUR
WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BETTER FORCING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT FARTHER
NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NEVERTHELESS, THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND OVERALL PATTERN, INCLUDING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. UNDER THESE REGIMES, THE RISK FOR STRONG STORMS IS
TYPICALLY ENHANCED. AS THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLUGGISHLY
MOVES SOUTH AND APPROACHES THE AREA, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. A WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KAPF. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WELL TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION, WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK TODAY UNDER
THE RESULTING WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST. SEAS GENERALLY 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MID WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 73 91 75 / - - 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 76 91 78 / 10 - 20 20
MIAMI 91 76 92 77 / 20 - 20 20
NAPLES 89 74 89 75 / - - 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
645 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE AFTN. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WI AND BRING INCREASE IN MID
CLOUDS TNGT INTO TUE... WITH A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN FROM E/NE AT 3-7 KTS DURING
PD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK TROF FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED
850MB DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS ILLINOIS. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW CONVECTION CONTINUING WITH THE
WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ILLINOIS. THE DAKOTAS WAVE WAS
TRYING TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK LOW NEAR KPPQ WITH AN INVERTED TROF
RUNNING BACK INTO CENTRAL IOWA. A LAKE INDUCED COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. A WEAK TROF
RAN FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE
IN THE 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY SOUTH WHILE 40S
AND 50S WERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE QUESTION IS WILL CONVECTION FIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THEN LINGER INTO THE EVENING. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWFA BUT TEMPERATURES THERE ARE WELL BELOW THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW WEAK CU DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. SO...UNLESS SOMETHING DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT
2.5 HRS ON SOME LOCALIZED SFC CONVERGENCE IT APPEARS THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY.
LATER TONIGHT THE DAKOTA SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY STEEP AND THERE IS NO
SFC CONVERGENCE TO HELP GET ANYTHING GOING. THUS OTHER THAN SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WELL.
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST PASSING CLOUDS FROM THE
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX. FCST MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ARE EITHER AT
OR JUST BELOW THE PROJECTED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA BY MID
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON. 08
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL FEEL A COOL NIGHT/BELOW
GUIDANCE IN STORE TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH...IF ENOUGH CLEARING
OCCURS UNDER CHANNELED VORT SHUTTLE ALOFT. SOME LOWS IN THE 40S
POSSIBLE...WITH MANY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. ONGOING DRY AIRMASS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING REGIME ON WED CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ONGOING
DRY FCST...NICE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
CLEARING AND SEASONABLY COOL AGAIN WED NIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHING WEST SOME FROM THE GRT LKS. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INLAND BUILDING UPPER JET/WAVE ENERGY TO SHUNT
BRUNT OF OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD/FRI MORNING. WHILE MCS/S FLARE UP ACRS
THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS AS A RESULT..THE LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN
DRY THRU FRI MORNING WITH SOME SLIGHT THERMAL MODERATION.
FRIDAY...BETTER TEMP RECOVER WITH INCREASED RETURN FLOW FRI WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. DESPITE SOME MODELS TILTING UPPER RIDGE
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ENOUGH TO SPILL SOME OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MN MCS ACTIVITY DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FRI OR FRI
NIGHT...FEEL THE RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS
PROPAGATION TRAJECTORY AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SAT WHILE IT/S
ROCK AND ROLL TIME FROM THE DAKOTAS...ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND TO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE NEW
ECMWF SUGGEST BUILDING HEAT DOME WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING TO
REIGN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MID AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEYS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LLVL WARM AND MORE MOIST FETCH NOW SUPPORT
HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WILL NOT ADVERTISE THOSE EXTREMES YET...BUT
THE SUNDAY WARM SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. MAIN STORM/MCS TRACK WILL LOOK TO BE MID TO LATE SUMMER-LIKE
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...TO ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION OR
EVEN FURTHER NORTH. WESTERN WAVE ENERGY SURGE TO EVENTUALLY BE
REALIZED UP OVER THE RIDGE WITH A GREATLY DAMPENING EFFECT ON
THE BLOCKED PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY STRONG AND
DEEPENING CYCLONE PUSHING ACRS CENTRAL CANADA WILL HAVE TO SHUNT A
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME...WITH THE LATEST RUNS HINTING AT
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY QUICKER GFS WITH THIS
PROCESS HAS SLOWED TO THE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN TARGETING MON NIGH
AND TUES AS THE NEXT MAIN PRECIP WINDOW. EXTENT OF CURRENTLY PROGGED
MOISTURE FETCH/CONVEYOR UP OFF THE WESTERN GULF COULD FUEL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS COMPLEX THAT GET GENERATED BY THIS FROPA.
IF FRONT STALL ACRS THE AREA...A PROLONGED STORMY PERIOD COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. 12
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
104 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.MESO UPDATE...
ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THRU
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE CHANCES FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
INCREASE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST MESO DATA/PROGS ARE
GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF WEAKENING CAP IN THIS AREA WHERE DIURNAL
HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG. THIS IN
COMBO WITH DECENT SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KTS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME
SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL THEN TEND TO DEVELOP/MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THRU THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
KED
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE AREAL
COVERAGE COULD BECOME LOCALLY MORE NUMEROUS FOR A TIME...WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD...THOUGH
PERIODS OF DETERIORATION TO AT LEAST MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO SHOW THIS
CLOSER TO ONSET OF CONVECTION. MOST OF THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROF WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
KED
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WILL MAINTAIN A THUNDER MENTION AT CNU EARLY THIS MORNING AS
CURRENT MCS FROM EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KS WHERE 850 INFLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FOCUSED. WILL CARRY VCTS MENTION AT MOST SITES EXCEPT RSL. IT`S
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT CNU...ICT AND HUT MAY NEED A TEMPO TS AT SOME
POINT AND WILL REFINE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THIS MORNING`S MCS.
SYNOPSIS:
A MCS HAS DEVELOPED FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING.
TODAY - TONIGHT:
THE MCS THAT IS ONGOING THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS. THE HRRR AND GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A RELATIVELY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WHILE THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION. THE MAIN QUESTION AFTER THIS
CONVECTION EXITS TO THE EAST IS WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
SET UP. THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION
CHANCES AND DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE THE STRUGGLES THE 00Z NAM IS HAVING WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...FEEL THAT THE LATER EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 00Z/GFS AND 00Z/EC SUPPORT THE
00Z/NAM DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PUSHING EAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRIME A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE GFS/NAM INDICATING UPWARDS OF
3000-4000 J/KG CAPE BY 21Z WITH 40+KTS SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
COORDINATES WITH WHAT SPC IS THINKING AS OF THEIR 04Z UPDATE. AS
STATED...PIN POINTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT WITH IT DEPENDING ON HOW BOUNDARIES WILL EVOLVE AFTER THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION. BUT IF THERE ARE SOME BOUNDARIES AROUND...LOW
LEVEL HELICITY COULD BE ENHANCED AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI WITH CONVECTION LEAVING THE STATE BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY - SATURDAY:
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...KEEPING KANSAS
UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. A
DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DISLODGE A
POTENT CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE...THE
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH THE OUTWARD EDGES OF THIS SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARER TO NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK-WEEK AFTER AN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRY TO MOVE UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE WORK-WEEK AND THEY COULD SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. HAVE
MAINLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
BILLINGS
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND AFFECT A COUPLE TAF SITES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 89 69 90 67 / 50 50 10 10
HUTCHINSON 89 68 90 66 / 50 50 10 10
NEWTON 87 68 89 66 / 50 50 10 10
ELDORADO 86 68 89 66 / 40 60 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 89 70 90 68 / 50 60 20 10
RUSSELL 90 67 90 64 / 20 40 10 10
GREAT BEND 91 68 90 65 / 30 40 10 10
SALINA 89 69 90 65 / 40 50 10 10
MCPHERSON 88 68 90 65 / 50 50 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 87 70 89 69 / 30 70 20 10
CHANUTE 86 69 88 67 / 30 60 20 10
IOLA 86 68 88 66 / 30 60 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 87 70 89 68 / 30 60 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE AREAL
COVERAGE COULD BECOME LOCALLY MORE NUMEROUS FOR A TIME...WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD...THOUGH
PERIODS OF DETERIORATION TO AT LEAST MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO SHOW THIS
CLOSER TO ONSET OF CONVECTION. MOST OF THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROF WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
KED
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WILL MAINTAIN A THUNDER MENTION AT CNU EARLY THIS MORNING AS
CURRENT MCS FROM EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KS WHERE 850 INFLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FOCUSED. WILL CARRY VCTS MENTION AT MOST SITES EXCEPT RSL. IT`S
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT CNU...ICT AND HUT MAY NEED A TEMPO TS AT SOME
POINT AND WILL REFINE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THIS MORNING`S MCS.
SYNOPSIS:
A MCS HAS DEVELOPED FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING.
TODAY - TONIGHT:
THE MCS THAT IS ONGOING THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS. THE HRRR AND GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A RELATIVELY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WHILE THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION. THE MAIN QUESTION AFTER THIS
CONVECTION EXITS TO THE EAST IS WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
SET UP. THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION
CHANCES AND DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE THE STRUGGLES THE 00Z NAM IS HAVING WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...FEEL THAT THE LATER EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 00Z/GFS AND 00Z/EC SUPPORT THE
00Z/NAM DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PUSHING EAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRIME A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE GFS/NAM INDICATING UPWARDS OF
3000-4000 J/KG CAPE BY 21Z WITH 40+KTS SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
COORDINATES WITH WHAT SPC IS THINKING AS OF THEIR 04Z UPDATE. AS
STATED...PIN POINTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT WITH IT DEPENDING ON HOW BOUNDARIES WILL EVOLVE AFTER THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION. BUT IF THERE ARE SOME BOUNDARIES AROUND...LOW
LEVEL HELICITY COULD BE ENHANCED AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI WITH CONVECTION LEAVING THE STATE BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY - SATURDAY:
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...KEEPING KANSAS
UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. A
DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DISLODGE A
POTENT CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE...THE
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH THE OUTWARD EDGES OF THIS SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARER TO NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK-WEEK AFTER AN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRY TO MOVE UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE WORK-WEEK AND THEY COULD SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. HAVE
MAINLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
BILLINGS
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND AFFECT A COUPLE TAF SITES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 89 69 90 67 / 50 50 10 10
HUTCHINSON 89 68 90 66 / 50 40 10 10
NEWTON 87 68 89 66 / 50 50 10 10
ELDORADO 86 68 89 66 / 40 60 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 89 70 90 68 / 50 60 20 10
RUSSELL 90 68 90 64 / 20 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 91 67 90 65 / 30 20 10 10
SALINA 89 69 90 65 / 40 40 10 10
MCPHERSON 88 68 90 65 / 50 40 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 87 70 89 69 / 30 50 20 10
CHANUTE 86 69 88 67 / 30 60 20 10
IOLA 86 68 88 66 / 30 60 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 87 70 89 68 / 30 60 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
644 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WILL MAINTAIN A THUNDER MENTION AT CNU EARLY THIS MORNING AS
CURRENT MCS FROM EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KS WHERE 850 INFLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FOCUSED. WILL CARRY VCTS MENTION AT MOST SITES EXCEPT RSL. IT`S
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT CNU...ICT AND HUT MAY NEED A TEMPO TS AT SOME
POINT AND WILL REFINE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THIS MORNING`S MCS.
SYNOPSIS:
A MCS HAS DEVELOPED FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING.
TODAY - TONIGHT:
THE MCS THAT IS ONGOING THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS. THE HRRR AND GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A RELATIVELY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WHILE THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION. THE MAIN QUESTION AFTER THIS
CONVECTION EXITS TO THE EAST IS WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
SET UP. THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION
CHANCES AND DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE THE STRUGGLES THE 00Z NAM IS HAVING WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...FEEL THAT THE LATER EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 00Z/GFS AND 00Z/EC SUPPORT THE
00Z/NAM DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PUSHING EAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRIME A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE GFS/NAM INDICATING UPWARDS OF
3000-4000 J/KG CAPE BY 21Z WITH 40+KTS SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
COORDINATES WITH WHAT SPC IS THINKING AS OF THEIR 04Z UPDATE. AS
STATED...PIN POINTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT WITH IT DEPENDING ON HOW BOUNDARIES WILL EVOLVE AFTER THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION. BUT IF THERE ARE SOME BOUNDARIES AROUND...LOW
LEVEL HELICITY COULD BE ENHANCED AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI WITH CONVECTION LEAVING THE STATE BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY - SATURDAY:
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...KEEPING KANSAS
UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. A
DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DISLODGE A
POTENT CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE...THE
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH THE OUTWARD EDGES OF THIS SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARER TO NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK-WEEK AFTER AN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRY TO MOVE UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE WORK-WEEK AND THEY COULD SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. HAVE
MAINLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
BILLINGS
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND AFFECT A COUPLE TAF SITES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 89 69 90 67 / 50 50 10 10
HUTCHINSON 89 68 90 66 / 50 40 10 10
NEWTON 87 68 89 66 / 50 50 10 10
ELDORADO 86 68 89 66 / 50 60 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 89 70 90 68 / 50 60 20 10
RUSSELL 90 68 90 64 / 20 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 91 67 90 65 / 30 20 10 10
SALINA 89 69 90 65 / 50 40 10 10
MCPHERSON 88 68 90 65 / 50 40 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 87 70 89 69 / 50 50 20 10
CHANUTE 86 69 88 67 / 50 60 20 10
IOLA 86 68 88 66 / 50 60 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 87 70 89 68 / 50 60 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
323 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THIS MORNING`S MCS.
SYNOPSIS:
A MCS HAS DEVELOPED FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING.
TODAY - TONIGHT:
THE MCS THAT IS ONGOING THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS. THE HRRR AND GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A RELATIVELY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WHILE THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION. THE MAIN QUESTION AFTER THIS
CONVECTION EXITS TO THE EAST IS WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
SET UP. THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION
CHANCES AND DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE THE STRUGGLES THE 00Z NAM IS HAVING WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...FEEL THAT THE LATER EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 00Z/GFS AND 00Z/EC SUPPORT THE
00Z/NAM DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PUSHING EAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRIME A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE GFS/NAM INDICATING UPWARDS OF
3000-4000 J/KG CAPE BY 21Z WITH 40+KTS SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
COORDINATES WITH WHAT SPC IS THINKING AS OF THEIR 04Z UPDATE. AS
STATED...PIN POINTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT WITH IT DEPENDING ON HOW BOUNDARIES WILL EVOLVE AFTER THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION. BUT IF THERE ARE SOME BOUNDARIES AROUND...LOW
LEVEL HELICITY COULD BE ENHANCED AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI WITH CONVECTION LEAVING THE STATE BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY - SATURDAY:
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...KEEPING KANSAS
UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. A
DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DISLODGE A
POTENT CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE...THE
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH THE OUTWARD EDGES OF THIS SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARER TO NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK-WEEK AFTER AN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRY TO MOVE UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE WORK-WEEK AND THEY COULD SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. HAVE
MAINLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
BILLINGS
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND AFFECT A COUPLE TAF SITES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 89 69 90 67 / 50 50 10 10
HUTCHINSON 89 68 90 66 / 50 40 10 10
NEWTON 87 68 89 66 / 50 50 10 10
ELDORADO 86 68 89 66 / 50 60 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 89 70 90 68 / 50 60 20 10
RUSSELL 90 68 90 64 / 20 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 91 67 90 65 / 30 20 10 10
SALINA 89 69 90 65 / 50 40 10 10
MCPHERSON 88 68 90 65 / 50 40 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 87 70 89 69 / 50 50 20 10
CHANUTE 86 69 88 67 / 50 60 20 10
IOLA 86 68 88 66 / 50 60 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 87 70 89 68 / 50 60 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1225 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS ARE MODELED BY THE VARIOUS MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODELS TO
CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO SEPARATE MULTICELL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON THE EVENING. THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND HIGH CAPE IS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES. THE TOTAL
CAPES DROPS DRAMATICALLY HEADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER TERRAIN,
HOWEVER, VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD STILL SUPPORT PROLIFIC THUNDERSTORMS GUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH THE EVENING FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT
BECOME SUSTAINED INTO THE AREA. THE HRRR MODEL BASICALLY DEVELOPED 2
CLUSTERS, ALLOWING THE MAIN WIND THREAT TO BE SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE VARIOUS WRF RUNS PRODUCE
MORE OF A SINGLE LARGER CLUSTER CENTERING TOWARD HAMILTON AND
STANTON COUNTIES BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV
ANOMALY MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING. THE
LOCALIZED MESOSCALE LIFT FROM SUCH A FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
IN A MUCH WEAKENED MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ENVIRONMENT. WITH THIS
IMPULSE MOVING THOUGH THE AREA, A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 12Z IN THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, IT SHOULD BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHERN CWA, WITH A MUCH LESS CHANCE
IN THE EAST DUE TO COLD AIR SINKING IN. AN UPPER WAVE THEN DIVES
SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AS
THAT FRONT MEANDERS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS UPPER WAVE
COULD BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS
WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE AREA EAST OF WAKEENEY TO ASHLAND WILL LIKELY HAVE THE
HIGHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND THAT AREA IS WHERE SEVERE STORMS
SEEM THE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE EVEN MORE EASTWARD, EAST OF A HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE LINE. SATURDAY, MOST OF THE UPPER MOMENTUM WILL HAVE
MOVED SOUTH AND EAST, SO POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES, MAINLY IN THE SAINT JOHN TO PRATT
AREAS.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL START WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S, COOL TO THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY, AND DROP AS LOW AS THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S BY FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AS A
DOWN SLOPE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWNWARD. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AOA110. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 91 64 88 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 66 91 64 88 / 10 10 20 20
EHA 65 90 63 86 / 20 20 20 20
LBL 67 92 64 88 / 20 20 20 20
HYS 67 91 65 88 / 20 10 10 10
P28 69 91 65 87 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
107 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW
HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...NEARING LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE COMBINATION OF
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY VALUES BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG...AND REACHING CONVECTIVE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...WHICH COULD RESULT IN GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOW
FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO REACH 40-50 KTS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
ADDED BOTH THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MENTION TO AREAS WITH
HIGHER POPS. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE REGION IN A `SEE TEXT`
MENTION FOR TODAY/S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HAVE ALSO SEEN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LINE OF SHOWERS WITH 00Z HIGH-RES NCEP
NMM/ARW ALONG WITH 00Z NSSL ARW AND 00Z NAM NEST...SO HAVE TRIED
TO TIME THIS LINE OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HAVE BROUGHT ALL POPS
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST...WHICH FOLLOWS THE
EXPECTED SKY COVER GRADIENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL HAVE SOLID AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SHOULD SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT UNLIKE TODAY...SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE WILL ALLOW FOR LESS INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE NO
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DISAGREEMENT FOR
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...SO HAVE GONE WITH MORE GENERIC CHANCE POPS.
THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD...SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO
HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER FLOW BLOCK IS NAEFS/ECMWF-FORECAST TO MAINTAIN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ANTICIPATED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
FORECAST IS MINIMAL AS SHORTWAVES IN FLOW WILL DEFINE MOISTURE
SUPPLY AND BOUNDARY POSITIONING.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE...TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED
UNDER COOLER MID LEVELS.
EARLY RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN FILLING...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE UNINTERRUPTED SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING, ALBEIT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS
WILL HAVE DEVELOPED BY 15Z. RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN AFFECT KFKL AND PERHAPS
KDUJ THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THIS SHOWER BAND IS PART OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWED
ROTATING AROUND A COLD LOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE.
BLEND OF WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOW ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. USED
THESE SOLUTIONS TO HELP FRAME TIMING OF TEMPO MVFR SHOWERS FOR
VARIOUS TAF SITES. NAM MODEL PROFILES AND SPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS, WHICH SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SUPPORTS. HOWEVER, DO NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN TAFS.
DID MENTION THAT SURFACE WINDS, SOUTHWEST BECOMING WEST IN
DIRECTION, CAN GENERALLY GUST TO 25-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON.
BY 02Z, NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW STABILITY RESTORED, WITH LESS WIND
AND LESS CLOUDS.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1028 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...NEARING LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE COMBINATION OF
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY VALUES BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG...AND REACHING CONVECTIVE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...WHICH COULD RESULT IN GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOW
FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO REACH 40-50 KTS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
ADDED BOTH THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MENTION TO AREAS WITH
HIGHER POPS. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE REGION IN A `SEE TEXT`
MENTION FOR TODAY/S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HAVE ALSO SEEN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LINE OF SHOWERS WITH 00Z HIGH-RES NCEP
NMM/ARW ALONG WITH 00Z NSSL ARW AND 00Z NAM NEST...SO HAVE TRIED
TO TIME THIS LINE OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HAVE BROUGHT ALL POPS
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST...WHICH FOLLOWS THE
EXPECTED SKY COVER GRADIENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL HAVE SOLID AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SHOULD SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT UNLIKE TODAY...SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE WILL ALLOW FOR LESS INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE NO
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DISAGREEMENT FOR
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...SO HAVE GONE WITH MORE GENERIC CHANCE POPS.
THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD...SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO
HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER FLOW BLOCK IS NAEFS/ECMWF-FORECAST TO MAINTAIN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ANTICIPATED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
FORECAST IS MINIMAL AS SHORTWAVES IN FLOW WILL DEFINE MOISTURE
SUPPLY AND BOUNDARY POSITIONING.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE...TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED
UNDER COOLER MID LEVELS.
EARLY RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN FILLING...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE UNINTERRUPTED SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING, ALBEIT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS
WILL HAVE DEVELOPED BY 15Z. RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN AFFECT KFKL AND PERHAPS
KDUJ THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THIS SHOWER BAND IS PART OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWED
ROTATING AROUND A COLD LOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE.
BLEND OF WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOW ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. USED
THESE SOLUTIONS TO HELP FRAME TIMING OF TEMPO MVFR SHOWERS FOR
VARIOUS TAF SITES. NAM MODEL PROFILES AND SPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS, WHICH SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SUPPORTS. HOWEVER, DO NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN TAFS.
DID MENTION THAT SURFACE WINDS, SOUTHWEST BECOMING WEST IN
DIRECTION, CAN GENERALLY GUST TO 25-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON.
BY 02Z, NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW STABILITY RESTORED, WITH LESS WIND
AND LESS CLOUDS.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1015 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN OFF THE COAST MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
MONDAY AND USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY RATHER INTERESTING AS MODELS SWING
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST RUC / HRRR
INDICATED SHWRS DVLP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG THE MTS THEN TRACK
SE. MEANWHILE...DOWNSLOPING W-NW WINDS WILL TEND TO OFFSET THE
SHWR DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO DETERMINE HOW FAR
EAST ANY SHWRS ACTUALLY GET BEFORE DISSIPATING / OR BECOME VIRGA.
TSCTNS SHOW ENUF MOISTURE FOR SCT CU TO QUICKLY BECOME BKN BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINITY...DECIDED TO ADD ISOLTD
SHWRS IN GRIDS TO NWRN MOST COUNTIES AFTER 18Z. HIGHS U70S-L80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...DEPICTED WELL BY UV IMAGERY OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN THE WEATHER THIS COMING WEEK. SHORT WAVES
SPINNING AROUND THE LOW MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
IN ITS TREK TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
FOR MOST OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME WEAK PVA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPR 50S
EXCEPT LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.
ON MONDAY...A CHC OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FCST FOR THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. ADDED A SLGT CHC FOR SW PORTIONS. BOTH NAM AND GFS
SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE CAROLINAS. ALSO HAVE SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTN. IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PCPN...A DRY FORECAST IS IN
PLACE FOR THE TIDEWATER AND RICHMOND AREAS.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT MID TO UPR 70S ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S EXCEPT NEAR 60S AT THE
COAST.
A PSEUDO COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH SLGT CHC TSTMS IN THE AFTN. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE DOMINATING THE WX PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS TWO CUTOFF LOWS SIT OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...FORMING AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL STATES.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SEND PULSES
OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AT TIMES.
OVERALL...THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION IS PREFERRED SINCE IT TENDS TO
HANDLE CUTOFF LOWS WITH BETTER CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL
LARGE ENOUGH VARIATIONS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND OTHER MID/LONG RANGE
MODELS TO CONTINUE A MODEL BLENDED FORECAST. DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS...HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES ONGOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ALTHOUGH EACH 24 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH
OUT. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A BIT TRICKY...HOWEVER
MODELS ARE BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED IN SHOWING COOL TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK (HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S) WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WEST WIND AROUND 10-15KT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT
ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PA TODAY
AND OFF THE NJ COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 6-8K FT MAINLY NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...AND THERE IS A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SBY AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RESULT IN A 10-15KT WESTERLY WIND
TODAY AND POTENTIALLY A SOLID 15KT TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CLIPS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AND
POTENTIALLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS (MAINLY OVER THE BAY
AND PERHAPS THE RIVERS DUE TO A FAVORABLE FETCH). A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING. THE WIND BECOMES N TO NNE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF 20-25KT WIND SPEEDS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND RATHER QUICKLY WITH
A SLIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND ARE PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
BUILD TO 5-6FT. THE COLD FRONT SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
BRINGING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-4FT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE AROUND 0.5-0.75FT ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE N MONDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME NE TUESDAY. THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE HAS TIDAL
ANOMALIES RISING TO AT LEAST 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF A SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND AND A FULL MOON. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOME LOCATIONS
TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SPRING 2012 WILL GO DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS THE WARMEST ON
RECORD FOR ALL 3 MAJOR CLIMATE SITES. AVG TEMPERATURE DATA FOR
SPRING (MAR-MAY) 2012 IS LISTED BELOW...
RICHMOND....62.4 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 61.4 F IN 2010)
NORFOLK.....63.4 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 62.7 F IN 1945)
SALISBURY...59.8 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 59.7 F IN 1945)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
810 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH. UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF LAKE HURON
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...NEARING LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY
VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG...AND REACHING CONVECTIVE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...WHICH COULD RESULT IN GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOW
FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO REACH 40-50 KTS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
ADDED BOTH THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MENTION TO AREAS WITH
HIGHER POPS. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE REGION IN A `SEE TEXT`
MENTION FOR TODAY/S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HAVE ALSO SEEN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LINE OF SHOWERS WITH 00Z HIGH-RES NCEP
NMM/ARW ALONG WITH 00Z NSSL ARW AND 00Z NAM NEST...SO HAVE TRIED
TO TIME THIS LINE OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HAVE BROUGHT ALL POPS
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST...WHICH FOLLOWS THE
EXPECTED SKY COVER GRADIENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL HAVE SOLID AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SHOULD SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT UNLIKE TODAY...SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE WILL ALLOW FOR LESS INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE NO
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DISAGREEMENT FOR
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...SO HAVE GONE WITH MORE GENERIC CHANCE POPS.
THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD...SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO
HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER FLOW BLOCK IS NAEFS/ECMWF-FORECAST TO MAINTAIN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ANTICIPATED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
FORECAST IS MINIMAL AS SHORTWAVES IN FLOW WILL DEFINE MOISTURE
SUPPLY AND BOUNDARY POSITIONING.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE...TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED
UNDER COOLER MID LEVELS.
EARLY RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN FILLING...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE UNINTERRUPTED SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING, ALBEIT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS
WILL HAVE DEVELOPED BY 15Z. RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN AFFECT KFKL AND PERHAPS
KDUJ THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THIS SHOWER BAND IS PART OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWED
ROTATING AROUND A COLD LOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE.
BLEND OF WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOW ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. USED
THESE SOLUTIONS TO HELP FRAME TIMING OF TEMPO MVFR SHOWERS FOR
VARIOUS TAF SITES. NAM MODEL PROFILES AND SPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS, WHICH SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SUPPORTS. HOWEVER, DO NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN TAFS.
DID MENTION THAT SURFACE WINDS, SOUTHWEST BECOMING WEST IN
DIRECTION, CAN GENERALLY GUST TO 25-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON.
BY 02Z, NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW STABILITY RESTORED, WITH LESS WIND
AND LESS CLOUDS.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
651 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF LAKE HURON
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...NEARING LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY VALUES
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG...AND REACHING CONVECTIVE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY LOW...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
ALLOW WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO REACH 40-50
KTS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE ADDED BOTH THE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MENTION TO AREAS WITH HIGHER POPS. SPC
HAS PLACED MOST OF THE REGION IN A `SEE TEXT` MENTION FOR TODAY/S
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HAVE ALSO SEEN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
PLACEMENT OF LINE OF SHOWERS WITH 00Z HIGH-RES NCEP NMM/ARW ALONG
WITH 00Z NSSL ARW AND 00Z NAM NEST...SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THIS LINE
OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH PRECIPITATION GENERALLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HAVE BROUGHT ALL POPS TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S
SOUTHWEST...WHICH FOLLOWS THE EXPECTED SKY COVER GRADIENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL HAVE SOLID AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SHOULD SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT UNLIKE TODAY...SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE WILL ALLOW FOR LESS INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE NO
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DISAGREEMENT FOR
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...SO HAVE GONE WITH MORE GENERIC CHANCE POPS.
THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD...SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO
HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER FLOW BLOCK IS NAEFS/ECMWF-FORECAST TO MAINTAIN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ANTICIPATED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
FORECAST IS MINIMAL AS SHORTWAVES IN FLOW WILL DEFINE MOISTURE
SUPPLY AND BOUNDARY POSITIONING.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE...TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED
UNDER COOLER MID LEVELS.
EARLY RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN FILLING...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE UNINTERRUPTED SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING, ALBEIT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS
WILL HAVE DEVELOPED BY 15Z. RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN AFFECT KFKL AND PERHAPS
KDUJ THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THIS SHOWER BAND IS PART OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWED
ROTATING AROUND A COLD LOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE.
BLEND OF WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOW ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. USED
THESE SOLUTIONS TO HELP FRAME TIMING OF TEMPO MVFR SHOWERS FOR
VARIOUS TAF SITES. NAM MODEL PROFILES AND SPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS, WHICH SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SUPPORTS. HOWEVER, DO NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN TAFS.
DID MENTION THAT SURFACE WINDS, SOUTHWEST BECOMING WEST IN
DIRECTION, CAN GENERALLY GUST TO 25-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON.
BY 02Z, NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW STABILITY RESTORED, WITH LESS WIND
AND LESS CLOUDS.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
818 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EVENING UPDATE...
FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING WAS ANALYZING THE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION
AND DETERMINING WHETHER THEY WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE GGW CWA.
CURRENTLY A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN TO BILLINGS
HAS BECOME THE FOCAL POINT FOR SOME FAIRLY LARGE CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COUPLE RATHER DANGEROUS BEASTS. ONE CLUSTER
ORIENTED MORE OVER BILLINGS HAS BEEN THREATENING FOR THE LAST HOUR
OR SO TO SPILL OVER INTO PETROLEUM AND GARFIELD COUNTY. THIS MAY
OCCUR BUT CURRENT HRRR AND HIRES-ARM ARE POINTING TOWARD THIS
CLUSTER SLOWLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES THE BORDER.
THE UPPER PART OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE THE STRONGER AND MORE
SEVERE STORMS LIE... IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO ABOUT BLAINE COUNTY
BEFORE CROSSING NORTH OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO CANADA.
WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH PHILLIPS COUNTY... SOME SPILL OVER
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE NIGHT IS UP. SOME LIMITED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE. HAVE MODIFIED QPF FIELDS
TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO RAISED AND MODIFIED
TO REFLECT MORE OF THE CURRENT REALITY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
PATTERN AMPLIFYING WITH TROF OFF THE WEST COAST PUSHING ONSHORE
BUILDING THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN MONTANA TODAY ON
THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE
AXIS HAS WEAKENED THEM. RESULTING CLOUD COVER HAS HINDERED
TEMPERATURE RISE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHICH MAY INFLUENCE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT
WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING IN CENTRAL MONTANA. STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY JET DEVELOPING WILL PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT. FORCING WITH THE
FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROF LIFTS TOWARD
WESTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING OVER EASTERN
MONTANA. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LIMITED BY CAP IN THE MID LEVELS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT WILL BE INCHING EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
MORE TO THE EAST CAP WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY ALTHOUGH DOES NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE...BUT COULD HAVE A FEW STORM AROUND 6PM.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE AND
LEE CYCLONE PUSHING INTO ALBERTA. BY WEDNESDAY COOLER...DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER EASTERN MONTANA. EBERT
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA REGION
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM. THE INITIAL WAVE LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS IT
SPINS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS ALASKA. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN BEHIND IT FROM THE PACIFIC...KEEPING OUR AREA IN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND KEEP THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT VERY
WARM 700 MB TEMPS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW STAY
HIGH. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE 700 TEMPS NOT GETTING BELOW 12*C
UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY...THEREFORE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY
LOW AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. WE MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
YET ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW MOVES ONSHORE LATE NEXT WEEK. BARNWELL
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE A
REOCCURRING THEME WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER WASHINGTON AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS NORTHEAST AND BY NEXT TUESDAY MORNING
IS LOCATED AROUND HUDSON BAY. MODELS ALL ARE PLAYING OUT THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES NEARLY THE SAME. THE DETAILS WILL MAKE THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
TO OUR EAST WITH COOLER AIR STILL MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE EC HAS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND A SMALL WAVE MOVING THROUGH... CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
NOT THE BEST... BUT ENOUGH FOR A SCT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY IS ONE OF THOSE DETAIL PROBLEMS IN THE MODELS... DRY
SOUTHWEST AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH HIGH MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. IT IS A CASE OF IF YOU CAN GET SOMETHING TO POP A
THUNDERSTORM IT WILL HAVE GOOD ENERGY TO WORK WITH... HOWEVER THAT
IS A BIG IF AT THIS TIME. KEPT THINGS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME AND
IN THE SOUTHEAST NO THUNDER SINCE THE CAP WILL BE THE STRONGEST THERE.
SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED... WHEN THE TROUGH DOES
LIFT OUT EXPECT ONE GOOD THUNDERSTORM EVENT AS IT MOVES OUT.
PINNING DOWN WHICH PERIOD OVER ANOTHER AT THIS TIME IS NOT VERY
PRODUCTIVE WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES. PROTON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR
KGGW...BUT THE WINDOW FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z
FOR THE AREA. BARNWELL
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
533 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER CONSISTING OF ONLY
SOME PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AND MAYBE A FEW FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS ON MONDAY. AS FAR AS CAVEATS TO THIS BENIGN FORECAST
GO...THERE ARE TWO WORTH MENTIONING. FIRST OF ALL...THERE IS THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCE THAT A BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT...BUT LIKELIHOOD IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE.
ALSO...SUPPOSE A BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN LIGHT HAZE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN
THE LIKELIHOOD IS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT A FORMAL MENTION.
WIND-WISE...SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AT/BELOW 10KT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. OPTED TO USE VARIABLE 6KT WORDING FOR TONIGHT AS A SUBTLE
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO MORE OF A LIGHT BUT STEADY NORTHEAST BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME
MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS
RELEGATED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AS A RESULT. DESPITE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
INDICATE A COUPLE WARM CORE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH...AS OF 18Z...WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KONL...TO NEAR KLXN AND
KMCK...TO EAST OF KGLD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN
LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUDS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND FOR A SHORT WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON KUEX WAS INDICATING WEAK RETURNS FROM KODX TO
KBBW...ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND RAP ALL INDICATE CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND BROAD-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL
REMAIN WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE CWA PER THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AN RAP ALL INDICATE
AN ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BEING REALIZED. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC ALL SUGGEST INCREASED VALUES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND SOMEWHAT INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 2000J/KG...WITH THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTING THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
2500-3000J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
SREF-MEAN...NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...RAP...AND SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALL SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DETERMINING IF/WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE REALIZED IS TOUGH ENOUGH...BUT DETERMINING
WHETHER OR NOT SAID CONVECTION WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED IS EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT. AS ALREADY MENTIONED...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BECOMING A REALITY...BUT THE OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS COOLING
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850MB AND 750MB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT GIVEN THE
HIGH VALUES OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD MUCH
RATHER PLAY IT SAFE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WITH SEVERE WORDING INCLUDED...STARTING 22Z FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KMCK...TO NEAR KEAR...AND SOUTHEAST OF KODX.
THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALSO SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND THUS WILL ALSO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN
OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING SHOULD PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER TIME AS WEAK SHORT WAVES TRY TO
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HOTTER THAN
NORMAL WITH SOME LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENTS IN THE PERIOD...AND IT
APPEARS THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
TUESDAY...HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
STILL HOLDING STRONG. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY...EXPECT TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY
ABOUT THE SAME AS ON MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LOW END CHANCES
OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHEN IT COMES TO THE
DETAILS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE SCALE
STORM SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON DIURNAL
HEATING...AND POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS MCS FORMATION OR OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AT
THE START OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR
COVERAGE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
344 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS
RELEGATED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AS A RESULT. DESPITE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
INDICATE A COUPLE WARM CORE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH...AS OF 18Z...WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KONL...TO NEAR KLXN AND
KMCK...TO EAST OF KGLD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN
LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUDS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND FOR A SHORT WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON KUEX WAS INDICATING WEAK RETURNS FROM KODX TO
KBBW...ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND RAP ALL INDICATE CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND BROAD-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL
REMAIN WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE CWA PER THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AN RAP ALL INDICATE
AN ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BEING REALIZED. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC ALL SUGGEST INCREASED VALUES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND SOMEWHAT INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 2000J/KG...WITH THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTING THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
2500-3000J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
SREF-MEAN...NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...RAP...AND SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALL SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DETERMINING IF/WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE REALIZED IS TOUGH ENOUGH...BUT DETERMINING
WHETHER OR NOT SAID CONVECTION WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED IS EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT. AS ALREADY MENTIONED...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BECOMING A REALITY...BUT THE OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS COOLING
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850MB AND 750MB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT GIVEN THE
HIGH VALUES OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD MUCH
RATHER PLAY IT SAFE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WITH SEVERE WORDING INCLUDED...STARTING 22Z FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KMCK...TO NEAR KEAR...AND SOUTHEAST OF KODX.
THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALSO SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND THUS WILL ALSO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN
OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING SHOULD PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER TIME AS WEAK SHORT WAVES TRY TO
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HOTTER THAN
NORMAL WITH SOME LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENTS IN THE PERIOD...AND IT
APPEARS THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
TUESDAY...HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
STILL HOLDING STRONG. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY...EXPECT TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY
ABOUT THE SAME AS ON MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LOW END CHANCES
OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHEN IT COMES TO THE
DETAILS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE SCALE
STORM SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON DIURNAL
HEATING...AND POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS MCS FORMATION OR OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AT
THE START OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR
COVERAGE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME CU NEAR 5000FT
AGL ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FAR
TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WIND
WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8KTS...BUT
BECOME VARIABLE AT 6KTS OR LESS BY 22Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH
INFILTRATES THE AREA FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SURFACE WIND WILL
THEN BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT AROUND
07KTS STARTING 04Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
135 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.UPDATE...MIDDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ONE OR TWO SUBTLE
MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 18Z...THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST
AS FROM NEAR KONL...TO NEAR KLXN AND KMCK...TO EAST OF KGLD.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUDS
NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND FOR A SHORT WHILE KUEX WAS INDICATING
WEAK RETURNS FROM KODX TO KBBW...ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH.
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND RAP ALL INDICATE CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND BROAD-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL
REMAIN WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE CWA PER THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AN RAP ALL INDICATE
AN ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BEING REALIZED. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC ALL SUGGEST INCREASED VALUES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND SOMEWHAT INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 2000J/KG...WITH THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTING THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
2500-3000J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
SREF-MEAN...NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...RAP...AND SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALL SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGINNING
EARLY THIS EVENING. DETERMINING IF/WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE REALIZED IS
TOUGH ENOUGH...BUT DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT SAID CONVECTION WILL
BECOME SURFACE-BASED IS EVEN MORE DIFFICULT. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE ELEVATED THERMAL
INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION FROM BECOMING A
REALITY...BUT THE OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS COOLING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 850MB AND 750MB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION.THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT GIVEN THE
HIGH VALUES OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD MUCH
RATHER PLAY IT SAFE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING 22Z FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
KMCK...TO NEAR KEAR...AND SOUTHEAST OF KODX. THE 4KM WRF-NMM THEN
SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND THUS WILL ALSO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME CU NEAR 5000FT
AGL ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FAR
TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WIND
WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8KTS...BUT
BECOME VARIABLE AT 6KTS OR LESS BY 22Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH
INFILTRATES THE AREA FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SURFACE WIND WILL
THEN BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT AROUND
07KTS STARTING 04Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS RELEGATED TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST AS A RESULT. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A FEW WARM
CORE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE REMNANTS OF A ~30KT 850MB JET STREAK WAS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THIS LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE PAST FEW HOURS PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS OUR CWA
AS A RESULT.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...WAS PROMOTING WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOME OF WHICH
WAS OBSERVED OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB
JET STREAK HAS DIMINISHED THROUGH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
WITH THE LOSS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS ALSO DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR CWA. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIPITATION. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY
SKY...TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THIS
MORNING TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A PASSING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THIS
RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECT A STRING OF NICE DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
FOR TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THEREAFTER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO DWINDLE...AS
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISM...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND DECIDED TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DESPITE HIGHLIGHT OF SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THAT SAID...HOWEVER...IF CAP IS ABLE TO BE BROKEN...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GENERAL STORY HASNT
CHANGED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE CENTRAL CONUS
REMAINS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND SHARP RIDGE AXIS...STUCK
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
AND OVER THE IDAHO/MONT AREA. LOOKING AT THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY...THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS COME IN THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH HAS TAKEN A TREND TOWARD THE GFS...SHOWING THE RIDGE
AXIS HOLDING STRONG AND SHIFTING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW UP INTO
CANADA. SO INSTEAD OF BLANKETING QPF ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
RIDGE BEING BROKEN DOWN...THEY ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST INTO
THE CWA. BECAUSE OF THIS...TRENDED BACK POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURS NIGHT...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
SLIGHT CHANCES/IF ANY POPS ELSEWHERE. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS CONTINUE
THIS TREND...POPS COULD BE LOWERED MORE...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA COULD HAVE THEM REMOVED ALTOGETHER.
MODELS KEEP A BROADER RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY..BUT DO VARY ON ITS EXACT LOCATION...AND WHETHER FURTHER
WEAKENING OCCURS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
RIDING THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH...SO KEPT THE ALLBLEND
POPS AS IS...BUT WITH BOTH GENERALLY SHOWING DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS DRY.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE
HWO. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A MODEST INSTABILITY /PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE WEST...ESP EARLY IN THE PERIOD/ AND LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO
THOUGH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT...CANT COMPLETELY RULE SEVERE WEATHER OUT EITHER.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...ESP
WED AND SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY THUR/FRI. BY
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN MILD...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/1022 UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME CU NEAR 5000FT
AGL ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FAR
TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WIND
WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8KTS...BUT
BECOME VARIABLE AT 6KTS OR LESS BY 22Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH
INFILTRATES THE AREA FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SURFACE WIND WILL
THEN BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT AROUND
07KTS STARTING 04Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS RELEGATED TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST AS A RESULT. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A FEW WARM
CORE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE REMNANTS OF A ~30KT 850MB JET STREAK WAS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THIS LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE PAST FEW HOURS PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS OUR CWA
AS A RESULT.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...WAS PROMOTING WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOME OF WHICH
WAS OBSERVED OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB
JET STREAK HAS DIMINISHED THROUGH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
WITH THE LOSS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS ALSO DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR CWA. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIPITATION. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY
SKY...TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THIS
MORNING TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A PASSING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THIS
RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECT A STRING OF NICE DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
FOR TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THEREAFTER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO DWINDLE...AS
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISM...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND DECIDED TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DESPITE HIGHLIGHT OF SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THAT SAID...HOWEVER...IF CAP IS ABLE TO BE BROKEN...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GENERAL STORY HASNT
CHANGED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE CENTRAL CONUS
REMAINS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND SHARP RIDGE AXIS...STUCK
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
AND OVER THE IDAHO/MONT AREA. LOOKING AT THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY...THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS COME IN THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH HAS TAKEN A TREND TOWARD THE GFS...SHOWING THE RIDGE
AXIS HOLDING STRONG AND SHIFTING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW UP INTO
CANADA. SO INSTEAD OF BLANKETING QPF ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
RIDGE BEING BROKEN DOWN...THEY ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST INTO
THE CWA. BECAUSE OF THIS...TRENDED BACK POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURS NIGHT...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
SLIGHT CHANCES/IF ANY POPS ELSEWHERE. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS CONTINUE
THIS TREND...POPS COULD BE LOWERED MORE...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA COULD HAVE THEM REMOVED ALTOGETHER.
MODELS KEEP A BROADER RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY..BUT DO VARY ON ITS EXACT LOCATION...AND WHETHER FURTHER
WEAKENING OCCURS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
RIDING THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH...SO KEPT THE ALLBLEND
POPS AS IS...BUT WITH BOTH GENERALLY SHOWING DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS DRY.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE
HWO. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A MODEST INSTABILITY /PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE WEST...ESP EARLY IN THE PERIOD/ AND LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO
THOUGH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT...CANT COMPLETELY RULE SEVERE WEATHER OUT EITHER.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...ESP
WED AND SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY THUR/FRI. BY
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN MILD...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS RELEGATED TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST AS A RESULT. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A FEW WARM
CORE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE REMNANTS OF A ~30KT 850MB JET STREAK WAS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THIS LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE PAST FEW HOURS PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS OUR CWA
AS A RESULT.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...WAS PROMOTING WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOME OF WHICH
WAS OBSERVED OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB
JET STREAK HAS DIMINISHED THROUGH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
WITH THE LOSS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS ALSO DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR CWA. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIPITATION. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY
SKY...TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THIS
MORNING TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAF. QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AM
EXPECTING THEM TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINAL..AND KEPT ANY
MENTION OUT. BKN/OVC SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE AREA SITS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH ITS
WAY INTO THE TERMINAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE VARIABLE WINDS...BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO THE NORTH.
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A PASSING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THIS
RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECT A STRING OF NICE DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
FOR TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THEREAFTER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO DWINDLE...AS
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISM...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND DECIDED TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DESPITE HIGHLIGHT OF SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THAT SAID...HOWEVER...IF CAP IS ABLE TO BE BROKEN...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GENERAL STORY HASNT
CHANGED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE CENTRAL CONUS
REMAINS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND SHARP RIDGE AXIS...STUCK
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
AND OVER THE IDAHO/MONT AREA. LOOKING AT THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY...THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS COME IN THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH HAS TAKEN A TREND TOWARD THE GFS...SHOWING THE RIDGE
AXIS HOLDING STRONG AND SHIFTING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW UP INTO
CANADA. SO INSTEAD OF BLANKETING QPF ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
RIDGE BEING BROKEN DOWN...THEY ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST INTO
THE CWA. BECAUSE OF THIS...TRENDED BACK POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURS NIGHT...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
SLIGHT CHANCES/IF ANY POPS ELSEWHERE. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS CONTINUE
THIS TREND...POPS COULD BE LOWERED MORE...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA COULD HAVE THEM REMOVED ALTOGETHER.
MODELS KEEP A BROADER RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY..BUT DO VARY ON ITS EXACT LOCATION...AND WHETHER FURTHER
WEAKENING OCCURS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
RIDING THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH...SO KEPT THE ALLBLEND
POPS AS IS...BUT WITH BOTH GENERALLY SHOWING DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS DRY.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE
HWO. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A MODEST INSTABILITY /PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE WEST...ESP EARLY IN THE PERIOD/ AND LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO
THOUGH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT...CANT COMPLETELY RULE SEVERE WEATHER OUT EITHER.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...ESP
WED AND SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY THUR/FRI. BY
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN MILD...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
955 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...ONLY A COUPLE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM MONTANA STORMS IS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PRESENTLY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND EXTENDED IT INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER
TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR STILL SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING
INTO THE CENTRAL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PRESENTLY ATMOSPHERE IS
CAPPED BUT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...ELEVATED CONVECTION
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP THIS GOING. LASTLY...WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME STRONG OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH AT WILLISTON AND DICKINSON. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST ALTHOUGH MINIMAL CHANCES WILL EXIST
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1011 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND HAS NOW BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE AS IT APPROACHES
THE BIG COUNTRY. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THIS LINE WILL AFFECT
MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BIG COUNTRY THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING AFTER 06Z. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BIG
COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS
ACROSS THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED THIS UPDATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
AVIATION...
/00Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. A
LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK AND LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS FOR KABI THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 71 86 69 87 69 / 50 30 40 30 30
SAN ANGELO 73 89 69 89 70 / 20 20 30 30 30
JUNCTION 72 92 70 90 70 / 10 10 30 30 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
115 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.
KB
&&
.UPDATE...
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND THUS HAVE
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED FORECAST. AS ALLUDED TO
ABOVE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SPREAD CHANCE POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LAPS/RAP ANALYSIS DATA STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST
KS INTO NORTHEAST NM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES...PROVIDING ENHANCED FORCING FOR CONVECTION
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EASTWARD SOUTH OF THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INTO THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS FAR MIXING HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLUGGISH...NOT
SURPRISINGLY CONSIDERING RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE WESTERN
CWA THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THUS THE DRYLINE MAY NOT MIX AS
FAR EAST AS MODELS SUGGEST. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE AN EFFECTIVE
TRIPLE POINT SET UP THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THESE TWO BOUNDARIES
INTERSECT...LIKELY SOMEWHERE FROM THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF BOTH. STRONGEST INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG/ WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 TO
MAYBE 40 KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AS MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL PLACE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS AS STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH-BASED
AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAIRLY WEAK. OF COURSE WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN
THE AREA...CAN NEVER TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SPIN UP. FARTHER
WEST...STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY HIGH-BASED
STORMS.
KB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
WHETHER ANY THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. KGUY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING A
THUNDERSTORM...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER CHANCES AT KDHT AND KAMA.
HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT KGUY FROM 21Z-00Z BUT HAVE OMITTED AT
THE OTHER TWO TERMINALS FOR NOW WHERE CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORM
OCCURRENCE IS LOWER. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR...THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME WOULD BE 21-01Z AT KDHT AND A LITTLE LATER...MORE IN THE
00-03Z TIMEFRAME AT KAMA. GUSTY...ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AS WELL...PARTICULARLY AT KGUY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY AOB 15 KTS
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
UPDATE...
GRIDS/FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THE CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE THREE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO
15Z TODAY...AND THEN NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 20Z
TODAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS THE THEME OF THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE PANHANDLES LAST
EVENING IS ONGOING AT THIS HOUR OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
MEANWHILE...A SUBTLE MID/UPPER AIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IDENTIFIED IN
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS EXIST WITHIN NWP THIS MORNING WRT TODAY/S
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS. MODELS AGREE IN
PROPAGATING THE SAID WAVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY EVENING WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD ROUGHLY THE CANADIAN RIVER. MODELS ADDITIONALLY MIX/TIGHTEN A
DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AN EFFECTIVE
TRIPLE POINT IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. WITH THIS
AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS A BIT PUZZLING WHY
SOME MODELS CONVECT WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN DRY SOLUTIONS. THE WRF-NAM
AND HRRR PRODUCE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH LESSER SIGNALS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE NAM
ADDITIONALLY GENERATES HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN THE DRY AIR TOWARD
THE WEST...WHILE THE TTU WRF AND GFS ARE LARGELY CONVECTIVE-LESS.
GIVEN CONSISTENCY OF DEPICTED FORCING MECHANISMS...WILL LEAN GRIDS
TOWARD ACTIVE SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/ POPS
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT A
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT OVER THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES...WHEREAS
DRIER AIR/WEAKER INSTABILITY MAY LEND TOWARD A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS SHOULD HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AS
A RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH
A RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE...AND EVEN A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER THE HEIGHT RIDGE ALOFT AND HELP TO PROMOTE CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE/MOS SHOW NOTABLE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITHIN THIS REGIME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THUS HAVE TRENDED GRIDDED POPS TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS UPWARDS OF
30-40 PERCENT. WEAK MID/UPPER AIR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD RESTRICT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...BUT SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND AMPLE MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARIES.
WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIRTY RIDGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS THE SUBTLE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. YET MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN MOISTURE. THUS HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY IN WAKE OF A TIGHTENING DRYLINE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES...YIELDING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 MPH /20 FT/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A LOW RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING FROM HIGH BASED CONVECTION...AS
WELL AS ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS...MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...
AND THIS SHOULD BE MONITORED. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING AN ONSET OF
RELATIVELY COOLER/MOISTER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...LATE NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS.
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE...WITH RIDGING ALOFT KEEPING
CONVECTION AT BAY. A SIMILAR LLJ TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRATUS
PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. BUT FOLLOWING A SECOND DAY
OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP ADVECTION...THE STRATUS WILL HAVE A GREATER
CHANCE TO REACH THE METROPLEX MONDAY MORNING.
25
&&
.UPDATE...
REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. OTHERWISE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONGER NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AND A CUT-OFF WEAK MID LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TX. A LARGE LINEAR MCS
WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHERN KS. ALL WRF MODELS AND
THE RUC RAPID REFRESH SHOW THE BULK OF THIS MCS CONTINUING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE NE OF A SHERMAN TO COOPER
LINE. SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EXIST
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THOUGH FEEL HEATING AND
STRONG MIXING BY MIDDAY WILL LIKELY WASH THIS FEATURE OUT. FOR NOW
WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WE WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TO SEE IF ANYTHING OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OTHERWISE...AREA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY
...OR UNTIL OUR MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TX BEGINS MIGRATING
SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE ARKLATEX LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND HELP PULL THE WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN OK
BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO TUESDAY. WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS IS WHAT IS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM STALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE SREF/ECMWF/GFS MODELS TAKING IT FURTHER
SOUTH. HAVE LEANED WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION WITH AND MAINTAINED
LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OFF/ON FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. ONCE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF MID LEVEL AND FRONT
CAN BE DETERMINED WITH MORE ACCURACY...THEN POPS CAN BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THE WEAK MID LEVEL
LOW WILL MIGRATE EAST UNDERNEATH AN OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MID WEEK AND THE FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED
AS THESE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAY BE REINTRODUCED ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 96 74 97 76 93 / 5 0 5 10 30
WACO, TX 94 73 94 75 94 / 5 0 0 0 20
PARIS, TX 92 70 93 74 90 / 20 0 10 20 20
DENTON, TX 96 73 96 73 93 / 10 0 10 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 94 73 94 72 91 / 10 0 10 20 30
DALLAS, TX 95 75 96 76 92 / 5 0 5 10 30
TERRELL, TX 93 72 95 75 92 / 5 0 5 10 30
CORSICANA, TX 93 73 94 75 92 / 5 0 5 5 30
TEMPLE, TX 93 72 95 75 93 / 5 0 0 0 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 97 71 98 72 92 / 5 0 5 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/92
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
733 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.UPDATE...
GRIDS/FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THE CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE THREE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO
15Z TODAY...AND THEN NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 20Z
TODAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS THE THEME OF THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE PANHANDLES LAST
EVENING IS ONGOING AT THIS HOUR OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
MEANWHILE...A SUBTLE MID/UPPER AIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IDENTIFIED IN
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS EXIST WITHIN NWP THIS MORNING WRT TODAY/S
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS. MODELS AGREE IN
PROPAGATING THE SAID WAVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY EVENING WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD ROUGHLY THE CANADIAN RIVER. MODELS ADDITIONALLY MIX/TIGHTEN A
DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AN EFFECTIVE
TRIPLE POINT IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. WITH THIS
AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS A BIT PUZZLING WHY
SOME MODELS CONVECT WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN DRY SOLUTIONS. THE WRF-NAM
AND HRRR PRODUCE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH LESSER SIGNALS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE NAM
ADDITIONALLY GENERATES HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN THE DRY AIR TOWARD
THE WEST...WHILE THE TTU WRF AND GFS ARE LARGELY CONVECTIVE-LESS.
GIVEN CONSISTENCY OF DEPICTED FORCING MECHANISMS...WILL LEAN GRIDS
TOWARD ACTIVE SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/ POPS
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT A
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT OVER THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES...WHEREAS
DRIER AIR/WEAKER INSTABILITY MAY LEND TOWARD A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS SHOULD HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AS
A RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH
A RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE...AND EVEN A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER THE HEIGHT RIDGE ALOFT AND HELP TO PROMOTE CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE/MOS SHOW NOTABLE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITHIN THIS REGIME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THUS HAVE TRENDED GRIDDED POPS TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS UPWARDS OF
30-40 PERCENT. WEAK MID/UPPER AIR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD RESTRICT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...BUT SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND AMPLE MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARIES.
WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIRTY RIDGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS THE SUBTLE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. YET MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN MOISTURE. THUS HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY IN WAKE OF A TIGHTENING DRYLINE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES...YIELDING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 MPH /20 FT/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A LOW RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING FROM HIGH BASED CONVECTION...AS
WELL AS ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS...MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...
AND THIS SHOULD BE MONITORED. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING AN ONSET OF
RELATIVELY COOLER/MOISTER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
626 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THE CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE THREE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO
15Z TODAY...AND THEN NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 20Z
TODAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS THE THEME OF THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE PANHANDLES LAST
EVENING IS ONGOING AT THIS HOUR OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
MEANWHILE...A SUBTLE MID/UPPER AIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IDENTIFIED IN
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS EXIST WITHIN NWP THIS MORNING WRT TODAY/S
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS. MODELS AGREE IN
PROPAGATING THE SAID WAVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY EVENING WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD ROUGHLY THE CANADIAN RIVER. MODELS ADDITIONALLY MIX/TIGHTEN A
DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AN EFFECTIVE
TRIPLE POINT IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. WITH THIS
AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS A BIT PUZZLING WHY
SOME MODELS CONVECT WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN DRY SOLUTIONS. THE WRF-NAM
AND HRRR PRODUCE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH LESSER SIGNALS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE NAM
ADDITIONALLY GENERATES HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN THE DRY AIR TOWARD
THE WEST...WHILE THE TTU WRF AND GFS ARE LARGELY CONVECTIVE-LESS.
GIVEN CONSISTENCY OF DEPICTED FORCING MECHANISMS...WILL LEAN GRIDS
TOWARD ACTIVE SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/ POPS
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT A
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT OVER THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES...WHEREAS
DRIER AIR/WEAKER INSTABILITY MAY LEND TOWARD A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS SHOULD HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AS
A RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH
A RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE...AND EVEN A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER THE HEIGHT RIDGE ALOFT AND HELP TO PROMOTE CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE/MOS SHOW NOTABLE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITHIN THIS REGIME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THUS HAVE TRENDED GRIDDED POPS TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS UPWARDS OF
30-40 PERCENT. WEAK MID/UPPER AIR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD RESTRICT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...BUT SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND AMPLE MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARIES.
WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIRTY RIDGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS THE SUBTLE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. YET MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN MOISTURE. THUS HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY IN WAKE OF A TIGHTENING DRYLINE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES...YIELDING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 MPH /20 FT/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A LOW RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING FROM HIGH BASED CONVECTION...AS
WELL AS ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS...MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...
AND THIS SHOULD BE MONITORED. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING AN ONSET OF
RELATIVELY COOLER/MOISTER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
555 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER HAVE REVEALED PATCHY AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WORKING THEIR WAY STEADILY TO THE
NORTH. NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED THAT THEY WILL REACH THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH AREA...BUT THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE POSSIBILITY
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE
FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES EARLY BEFORE A QUICK RETURN
TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. CONVECTION REMAINED NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER OVERNIGHT AND BELIEVE ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER
WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS VEER PRETTY QUICKLY TO THE WEST AT 5000 FT. WIND SPEEDS AT
THE SURFACE SHOULD BECOME SUSTAINED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY
MIDDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE WIND SPEEDS MAY REMAIN UP AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONGER NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AND A CUT-OFF WEAK MID LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TX. A LARGE LINEAR MCS
WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHERN KS. ALL WRF MODELS AND
THE RUC RAPID REFRESH SHOW THE BULK OF THIS MCS CONTINUING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE NE OF A SHERMAN TO COOPER
LINE. SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EXIST
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THOUGH FEEL HEATING AND
STRONG MIXING BY MIDDAY WILL LIKELY WASH THIS FEATURE OUT. FOR NOW
WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WE WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TO SEE IF ANYTHING OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OTHERWISE...AREA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY
...OR UNTIL OUR MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TX BEGINS MIGRATING
SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE ARKLATEX LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND HELP PULL THE WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN OK
BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO TUESDAY. WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS IS WHAT IS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM STALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE SREF/ECMWF/GFS MODELS TAKING IT FURTHER
SOUTH. HAVE LEANED WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION WITH AND MAINTAINED
LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OFF/ON FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. ONCE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF MID LEVEL AND FRONT
CAN BE DETERMINED WITH MORE ACCURACY...THEN POPS CAN BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THE WEAK MID LEVEL
LOW WILL MIGRATE EAST UNDERNEATH AN OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MID WEEK AND THE FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED
AS THESE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAY BE REINTRODUCED ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 96 74 97 76 93 / 5 0 5 10 30
WACO, TX 94 73 94 75 94 / 5 0 0 0 20
PARIS, TX 92 70 93 74 90 / 20 0 10 20 20
DENTON, TX 96 73 96 73 93 / 10 0 10 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 94 73 94 72 91 / 10 0 10 20 30
DALLAS, TX 95 75 96 76 92 / 5 0 5 10 30
TERRELL, TX 93 72 95 75 92 / 5 0 5 10 30
CORSICANA, TX 93 73 94 75 92 / 5 0 5 5 30
TEMPLE, TX 93 72 95 75 93 / 5 0 0 0 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 97 71 98 72 92 / 5 0 5 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
505 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS THE THEME OF THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE PANHANDLES LAST
EVENING IS ONGOING AT THIS HOUR OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
MEANWHILE...A SUBTLE MID/UPPER AIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IDENTIFIED IN
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS EXIST WITHIN NWP THIS MORNING WRT TODAY/S
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS. MODELS AGREE IN
PROPAGATING THE SAID WAVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY EVENING WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD ROUGHLY THE CANADIAN RIVER. MODELS ADDITIONALLY MIX/TIGHTEN A
DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AN EFFECTIVE
TRIPLE POINT IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. WITH THIS
AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS A BIT PUZZLING WHY
SOME MODELS CONVECT WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN DRY SOLUTIONS. THE WRF-NAM
AND HRRR PRODUCE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH LESSER SIGNALS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE NAM
ADDITIONALLY GENERATES HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN THE DRY AIR TOWARD
THE WEST...WHILE THE TTU WRF AND GFS ARE LARGELY CONVECTIVE-LESS.
GIVEN CONSISTENCY OF DEPICTED FORCING MECHANISMS...WILL LEAN GRIDS
TOWARD ACTIVE SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/ POPS
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT A
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT OVER THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES...WHEREAS
DRIER AIR/WEAKER INSTABILITY MAY LEND TOWARD A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS SHOULD HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AS
A RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH
A RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE...AND EVEN A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER THE HEIGHT RIDGE ALOFT AND HELP TO PROMOTE CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE/MOS SHOW NOTABLE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITHIN THIS REGIME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THUS HAVE TRENDED GRIDDED POPS TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS UPWARDS OF
30-40 PERCENT. WEAK MID/UPPER AIR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD RESTRICT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...BUT SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND AMPLE MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARIES.
WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIRTY RIDGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS THE SUBTLE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. YET MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN MOISTURE. THUS HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY IN WAKE OF A TIGHTENING DRYLINE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES...YIELDING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 MPH /20 FT/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A LOW RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING FROM HIGH BASED CONVECTION...AS
WELL AS ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS...MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...
AND THIS SHOULD BE MONITORED. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING AN ONSET OF
RELATIVELY COOLER/MOISTER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONGER NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AND A CUT-OFF WEAK MID LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TX. A LARGE LINEAR MCS
WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHERN KS. ALL WRF MODELS AND
THE RUC RAPID REFRESH SHOW THE BULK OF THIS MCS CONTINUING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE NE OF A SHERMAN TO COOPER
LINE. SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EXIST
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THOUGH FEEL HEATING AND
STRONG MIXING BY MIDDAY WILL LIKELY WASH THIS FEATURE OUT. FOR NOW
WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WE WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TO SEE IF ANYTHING OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OTHERWISE...AREA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY
...OR UNTIL OUR MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TX BEGINS MIGRATING
SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE ARKLATEX LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND HELP PULL THE WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN OK
BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO TUESDAY. WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS IS WHAT IS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM STALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE SREF/ECMWF/GFS MODELS TAKING IT FURTHER
SOUTH. HAVE LEANED WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION WITH AND MAINTAINED
LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OFF/ON FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. ONCE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF MID LEVEL AND FRONT
CAN BE DETERMINED WITH MORE ACCURACY...THEN POPS CAN BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THE WEAK MID LEVEL
LOW WILL MIGRATE EAST UNDERNEATH AN OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MID WEEK AND THE FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED
AS THESE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAY BE REINTRODUCED ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 96 74 97 76 93 / 5 0 5 10 30
WACO, TX 94 73 94 75 94 / 5 0 0 0 20
PARIS, TX 92 70 93 74 90 / 20 0 10 20 20
DENTON, TX 96 73 96 73 93 / 10 0 10 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 94 73 94 72 91 / 10 0 10 20 30
DALLAS, TX 95 75 96 76 92 / 5 0 5 10 30
TERRELL, TX 93 72 95 75 92 / 5 0 5 10 30
CORSICANA, TX 93 73 94 75 92 / 5 0 5 5 30
TEMPLE, TX 93 72 95 75 93 / 5 0 0 0 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 97 71 98 72 92 / 5 0 5 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1158 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.AVIATION...
SOUTH END OF TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH
ACROSS KCDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WORTH RETAINING A TEMPO
-TSRA FOR KCDS. EARLIER STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUST HAS CLEARED SOUTH
OF KLBB AND JUST PASSED KCDS AS WELL. DISRUPTED LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER TO SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT LATER
TONIGHT WITH RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR
NEW MEXICO BORDER. VERY LOW THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN LATE SUNDAY...
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR KCDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
THERE IS STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS EVENING OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT KCDS. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
CONTINUE WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES ON STORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FLOW WAS BACKING AND WEAKENING A BIT /AS SEEN
IN THE TUCUMCARI PROFILER DATA/ AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS SHIFTING
FROM THE EASTERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AN EJECTING
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL CO INTO NORTHEAST NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO
ONE OR MORE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AS IT TRANSLATES
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND PERHAPS OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE WAS ALSO
ENHANCING THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM...AND
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION COULD MATERIALIZE WITHIN THE SFC TROUGH HERE
TOO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LAST PLACE OF CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ALONG A RETREATING BOUNDARY NOTED ON
RADAR LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. UP TO
THIS POINT CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY TAME.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE 18Z RAP AND 16Z HRRR DO INDICATE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HR IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. 19Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC BASED
CAPES OF 800-2400 J/KG WITH DIMINISHING CIN. GIVEN T/TD SPREADS
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...STRONG DOWN-BURST WINDS
WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER CORES ALOFT AND THE INSTABILITY
COULD ALSO SUPPORT THE OCCURRENCE OF LARGE HAIL. ALL SAID...HAVE
DRAWN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE N/NW/W ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ COULD KEEP
SOME ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FAVORING THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. SOUTHERLY BREEZES...DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS AND SOME
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
HEIGHTS WILL BE EVEN HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THIS FLOW REGIME WILL CAUSE THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST...STRONG HEATING/MIXING COUPLED WITH
THE DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER
WEAK /AOB 20 KTS/...SO STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE TOUGH TO COME
BY...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPLY MIXED BL COULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WITH HIGHS NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TO POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUILDING ON YESTERDAYS TURNABOUT WITH RESPECT
TO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. 12Z RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH A NARROW BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BACK
INTO THE NRN ZONES MONDAY THEN SLIP FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY. BACKING
FLOW TO SE THEN EVENTUALLY EAST SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE DRYLINE FROM MIXING TOO
FAR TO THE EAST. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE
RIDGE LEADING TO PROGGED PWAT BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES MONDAY WITH
EASTERN AREAS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WHEN CONSIDERING RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE
RIDGE STORM ORGANIZATION NOT TOO LIKELY THUS PRECIP COULD END UP
BEING SCATTERED...BUT HIGHER PWATS SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIP
MENTION FOR MONDAY FAVORING NRN ZONES CLOSEST TO EXPECTED BOUNDARY
POSITION AND INSERT PRECIP MENTION INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK TO POTENTIALLY END PRECIP CHANCES. WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW AND POTENTIALLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER COOLER
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
ALTHOUGH GIVEN PROGGED THICKNESSES IT APPEARS MOS GUIDANCE MAY BE
A TOUCH COOL AND WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARD WARMER END OF
ENSEMBLE NUMBERS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 98 62 93 62 / 40 10 10 20 30
TULIA 66 98 65 92 65 / 40 20 20 20 30
PLAINVIEW 68 97 66 93 65 / 30 20 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 66 99 67 96 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 70 100 69 96 67 / 20 20 20 20 20
DENVER CITY 67 99 67 96 63 / 20 20 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 67 100 67 96 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 69 101 70 96 68 / 30 20 20 10 30
SPUR 69 101 69 97 68 / 20 20 20 10 20
ASPERMONT 70 100 71 98 70 / 20 10 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
102 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON
1002 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
CURRENTLY WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER OUT ACROSS
WESTERN MN MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH. RAP ANALYSIS/FORECAST
SHOWS RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER ALONG WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AREA OF SHRA/ISOLD T GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER AS THE PCPN
MOVES IN...BUT DYNAMIC FORCING SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THIS DRY AIR. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED SHRA/TS CHANCES GOING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
315 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY TROUGHS ALONG EACH COAST
AND RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH SYSTEMS RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE SKIRTING THE AREA. RATHER CHALLENGING TO TRY AND PINPOINT
ANY TIME FRAMES OF PRECIPITATION AND JUST USED AN ALLBLEND SOLUTION
FOR THESE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
101 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING..BRINGING AND END TO THE SCATTERED -SHRA/VCSH THREAT.
LOOK FOR SKIES TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MODEL SOUNDING/GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME FOG AT THE KRST TAF SITE
IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOISTENING OF THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDED SOME MVFR 4SM BR IN THAT TIME FRAME. FOR
MONDAY...LOOKING FOR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AROUND 15Z OR SO WITH
BASES AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
308 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....JLR
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1002 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON
1002 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
CURRENTLY WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER OUT ACROSS
WESTERN MN MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH. RAP ANALYSIS/FORECAST
SHOWS RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER ALONG WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AREA OF SHRA/ISOLD T GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER AS THE PCPN
MOVES IN...BUT DYNAMIC FORCING SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THIS DRY AIR. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED SHRA/TS CHANCES GOING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
315 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY TROUGHS ALONG EACH COAST
AND RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH SYSTEMS RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE SKIRTING THE AREA. RATHER CHALLENGING TO TRY AND PINPOINT
ANY TIME FRAMES OF PRECIPITATION AND JUST USED AN ALLBLEND SOLUTION
FOR THESE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
633 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
INTO THE 4 TO 7K LEVEL BY MID AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THEY SHOW FAIRLY DECENT OMEGA...SO ADDED
VCSH TO BOTH TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT THE PROBABILITIES LOOK TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
308 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....JLR
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
339 AM MDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS PROG THESE TO DIP INTO
THE 30S AND 40S AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
NAM OUTPUT PROGS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE OVR SW IDAHO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM IS MORE MOIST IN THE LLVLS COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS
AND THUS IS MORE GENEROUS FOR PROGD QPF AMOUNTS. HEIGHTS AND MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD...WHICH MAY HELP INHIBIT CONVECTION AT LEAST
INITIALLY. PROGD MLCAPES CLIMB INTO THE 600-1000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFTED INDICIES DROP TO AROUND -2 OR -3C. SO HAVE
INTRODUCED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE HIER TERRAIN INITIALLY AND OUT ON TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE WILL LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR MONDAY...AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND VERY NEAR TO THE FRONT
RANGE AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROF DEEPENS. SFC LOW WILL FORM AND
STRENGTHEN OVER IDAHO BY AFTERNOON INDUCING STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS WILL BE EFFECTIVE IN ADVECTING SFC
MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD. MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR ON MONDAY WILL BE THE
VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. H7 PROGD TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
NEAR 16 OR 17C BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THE 06Z NAM KEEPS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS CAPPED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INITIATES CONVECTION
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
THE WARMING MID-LEVELS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP
ON MONDAY WILL WANE BY LATE EVENING.
UPPER TROUGH INCHES CLOSER AS THE UPSTREAM TROF BEGINS TO SWING
NORTHEAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
CONSISTENT IN STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
NORTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SHEAR VALUES LOOK BETTER ON
TUESDAY AS WELL...SO EXPECT BETTER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
LARGE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT
PCPN CHCS ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES INTO
MONTANA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG SFC LOW AS COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO EASTERN WYOMING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST INTO NEBR PANHANDLE WITH WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW FARTHER WEST. AS MAIN ENERGY EJECTS NORTH...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL IN WRN NEBR PANHANDLE BY 00Z THU
WITH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EAST OF CYS. ON THU THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE AND JET MAX SHIFT INTO WESTERN WY WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPING IN NE WY. THIS SHOULD FOCUS MAIN PCPN FARTHER NORTH SO
HAVE KEPT THAT TREND WITH POPS. BRIEF BREAK ON FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS NEXT LARGE TROUGH AND FRONT DROPS INTO PAC
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE POSITIVE TILTED WITH GFS FASTER AND
MORE SPLIT THAN SLOWER ECMWF. HAVE KEPT TREND OF KEEPING PCPN LOW
ON SAT AND SUN WITH UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING. TEMPS LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE WARMED WESTERN ZONES ON
FRI AND SAT WITH 700MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 12-15C.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY WINDS CREATE DOWNSLOPING
CONDITIONS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST HRRR FORECAST IS HINTING
AT SOME VERY PATCHY IFR NEAR ALLIANCE TOWARDS 11Z THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS HAPPENING. NIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MAYBE OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE. AS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...IT LOOKS LIKE WARMING OF MID
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE DISTRICT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
DISTRICT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER CARBON COUNTY WHERE THIS MOISTURE WILL
HAVE MORE OF A DIFFICULT TIMING MAKING IT TO. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY HOWEVER AND WHEN COMBINED WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OVER CARBON COUNTY WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS APPROACHING CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
LONG TERM...SLA
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1019 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY WINDS CREATE DOWNSLOPING
CONDITIONS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST HRRR FORECAST IS HINTING
AT SOME VERY PATCHY IFR NEAR ALLIANCE TOWARDS 11Z THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS HAPPENING. NIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MAYBE OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE. AS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...IT LOOKS LIKE WARMING OF MID
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
UPDATE...THIRD GRIDDED FORECAST UPDATE COMPLETED TO REMOVE MENTION
OF SHOWERS TONIGHT PER THE WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS. ALSO
ADJUSTED DEWPOINT...WINDS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
BASED ON TRENDS AND THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT. RUBIN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAD
SHIFTED EAST TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...A RATHER
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EAST BENEATH THE
RIDGE WAS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
ROCKIES. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE BECOME BUSY SINCE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN WYOMING
AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL COLORADO. SOME OF THE STRONGER TSTORMS HAVE
PRODUCED SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN
BEGIN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA.
THE 12Z SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER THIS EVENING/S CONVECTION WANES...SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE SREF AND NAM BOTH DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD WITH ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE DEW
POINTS RISE INTO THE 50S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SBCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM BUFKIT 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
RANGE FROM 20-30 WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL TSTORM MODE. TSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DO INCREASE FROM .50 TO AROUND 1 INCH EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE MONDAY...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WITH THE STRONGER TSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE WARM
ONCE AGAIN WITH 80S TO AROUND 90. THE TSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SLOW TO EXIT EAST OF THE CWFA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING PACIFIC NW UPPER LOW
SLOWLY NE AND NORTH IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD
WITH UPPER TROF AXIS HOLDING GENERALLY JUST WEST OF THE NRN AND
CENTRAL ROCKYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE CWA IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
IMPULSES RIDING OVER THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER TROF AXIS
FINALLY PASSES ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH
WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. NO COOLING AS DOWNSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NEGATE COOLING...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND HIGHER ALONG
AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES TO THE WEST.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN CARBON COUNTY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1009 PM PDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH OVER NORCAL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE NEAR THE
COTTONWOOD AND REDDING AREAS WHERE NUMEROUS HAIL REPORTS AROUND
ONE INCH OR QUARTER SIZE WERE REPORTED. ALSO SEVERAL REPORTS OF
SIGNIFICANT HAIL GROUND ACCUMULATION WERE REPORTED UP 2 INCHES IN
DEPTH. PRECIP HAS TRANSITIONED EAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
CURRENT SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET. SNOTEL SITES SHOW 3-5 INCHES
ABOVE 8000 FEET SINCE ABOUT SUNSET. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CONTINUES OVER THE SIERRA ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH 5 AM. WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
20 MPH AND WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPIRED AT 8PM. HRRR AND NAM BOTH
INDICATE SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY TO ROTATE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WAS ALREADY NOTED WITH ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING
NEAR RED BLUFF AND SHOULD SEE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP AT LEAST OVER
THE SIERRA AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST INTO
THE GREAT BASIN TOMORROW...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNUSUAL...BUT NOT UNPRECEDENTED...JUNE WX FOR INTERIOR NORCAL
TODAY WITH A MINUS 3 STANDARD DEVIATION 500 MBS HEIGHT
ANOMALY...AND A PW PLUME UP TO 175% PERCENT OF NORMAL AFFECTING
THE AREA. THE FRONTAL PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH
GENERALLY STRATIFORM PRECIP...BUT ALSO A LINE OF STRONGER CELLS
ALONG THE FRONT. TO THE W OVER THE COASTAL RANGE...CONVECTIVE
CELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW +/- CG STRIKES AS THE
500 MBS HEIGHT ANOMALY APPROACHES THE AREA. DARKENING IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG VORT MAX JUST OFF THE SFO COAST
WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE SFO BAY AREA BY 00Z TUE
AND THEN NEWD TOWARDS THE CA/OR/NV BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY SHEARED VORTICITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF
WHICH MOVES NEWD ACROSS NORCAL ON TUE. LAPSE RATES FROM BUFKIT
DATA ARE FORECAST TO STEEPEN TO >7 DEG/KM AFTER 00Z...SO THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE EARLY
EVENING HRS. THE BETTER 0-1 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE N END OF THE SAC VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS WELL...AND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MINIMAL
VALUES FOR WEAK ROTATING CELLS. THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AND
TERRAIN FORCING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NRN SAC VLY AS THE
UP VALLEY FLOW INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING VORT MAX/UPPER TROF.
WRF CAPES ARE ALSO MAXIMIZED OVER THE NRN ZONES. IF HEATING WAS
STRONGER TODAY...WE WOULD HAVE STRONGER INSTABILITY...BUT THE
CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN THICK ENOUGH TODAY TO LIMIT DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...THE DOWNSIDE FOR TODAY`S CONVECTIVE THREAT.
WITH THE APPROACHING TROF/VORT MAX...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH 00Z AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IN THE WAKE
OF THE VORT MAX EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVSRY CRITERIA WINDS FROM LAKE
CO...THROUGH THE CARQUINEZ AND INTO THE SRN SAC AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY.
WE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SIERNEV AS
SNOW LEVELS LOWER OVERNITE AS THE TROF MOVES INLAND. OUR SNOW
TOTAL GRID HAS ABOUT 4-5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE SNOW LEVEL MAY LOWER TO 5000
TO 5500 FT EARLY TUE MORNING...BUT LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED TO FALL
TUE MORNING. WITH THE TROF AXIS STILL NOT EAST OF THE SIERNEV BY 12Z
TUE...PRECIP IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE SIERNEV FOR MOST OF
THE NITE...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR/WRF INDICATE A DECREASE IN PRECIP
THIS EVENING AFTER FROPA.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NRN ZONES SHOULD END ON TUE AS DRIER
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORCAL BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. TUE WILL
BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY SOME
10-20 DEG BELOW NORMAL...COOL FOR PRIMARY ELECTION DAY IN NORCAL.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WED AND MAX TEMPS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...CLOSER TO NORMAL.
THE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO CYCLONIC ON THU AS THE NEXT GOA UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE B.C. COAST. CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES...N OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE N ON THU. ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
DAY RESULTING IN A DELTA BREEZE...BUT TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO LOWER
MAX TEMPS AWAY FROM THE DELTA. JHM
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES NORCAL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHERN SHASTA
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. WARMING IN TEMPS
MAY RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THIS POINT. SLH
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
FOR MOUNTAINS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SIERRA AS RAIN
SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN TURNING TO SNOW AS SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 5500-6500 FT. MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH RIDGETOP GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET
FOR THE WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WESTERN PLUMAS
COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE EVE... AND LIKELY BEYOND AS
GREAT LAKES SFC RIDGING DOMINATES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/SE AT
GENERALLY 4-9 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK TROF FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED
850MB DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS ILLINOIS. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW CONVECTION CONTINUING WITH THE
WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ILLINOIS. THE DAKOTAS WAVE WAS
TRYING TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK LOW NEAR KPPQ WITH AN INVERTED TROF
RUNNING BACK INTO CENTRAL IOWA. A LAKE INDUCED COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. A WEAK TROF
RAN FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE
IN THE 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY SOUTH WHILE 40S
AND 50S WERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE QUESTION IS WILL CONVECTION FIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THEN LINGER INTO THE EVENING. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWFA BUT TEMPERATURES THERE ARE WELL BELOW THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW WEAK CU DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. SO...UNLESS SOMETHING DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT
2.5 HRS ON SOME LOCALIZED SFC CONVERGENCE IT APPEARS THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY.
LATER TONIGHT THE DAKOTA SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY STEEP AND THERE IS NO
SFC CONVERGENCE TO HELP GET ANYTHING GOING. THUS OTHER THAN SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WELL.
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST PASSING CLOUDS FROM THE
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX. FCST MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ARE EITHER AT
OR JUST BELOW THE PROJECTED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA BY MID
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON. 08
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL FEEL A COOL NIGHT/BELOW
GUIDANCE IN STORE TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH...IF ENOUGH CLEARING
OCCURS UNDER CHANNELED VORT SHUTTLE ALOFT. SOME LOWS IN THE 40S
POSSIBLE...WITH MANY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. ONGOING DRY AIRMASS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING REGIME ON WED CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ONGOING
DRY FCST...NICE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
CLEARING AND SEASONABLY COOL AGAIN WED NIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHING WEST SOME FROM THE GRT LKS. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INLAND BUILDING UPPER JET/WAVE ENERGY TO SHUNT
BRUNT OF OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD/FRI MORNING. WHILE MCS/S FLARE UP ACRS
THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS AS A RESULT..THE LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN
DRY THRU FRI MORNING WITH SOME SLIGHT THERMAL MODERATION.
FRIDAY...BETTER TEMP RECOVER WITH INCREASED RETURN FLOW FRI WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. DESPITE SOME MODELS TILTING UPPER RIDGE
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ENOUGH TO SPILL SOME OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MN MCS ACTIVITY DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FRI OR FRI
NIGHT...FEEL THE RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS
PROPAGATION TRAJECTORY AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SAT WHILE IT/S
ROCK AND ROLL TIME FROM THE DAKOTAS...ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND TO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE NEW
ECMWF SUGGEST BUILDING HEAT DOME WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING TO
REIGN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MID AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEYS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LLVL WARM AND MORE MOIST FETCH NOW SUPPORT
HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WILL NOT ADVERTISE THOSE EXTREMES YET...BUT
THE SUNDAY WARM SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. MAIN STORM/MCS TRACK WILL LOOK TO BE MID TO LATE SUMMER-LIKE
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...TO ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION OR
EVEN FURTHER NORTH. WESTERN WAVE ENERGY SURGE TO EVENTUALLY BE
REALIZED UP OVER THE RIDGE WITH A GREATLY DAMPENING EFFECT ON
THE BLOCKED PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY STRONG AND
DEEPENING CYCLONE PUSHING ACRS CENTRAL CANADA WILL HAVE TO SHUNT A
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME...WITH THE LATEST RUNS HINTING AT
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY QUICKER GFS WITH THIS
PROCESS HAS SLOWED TO THE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN TARGETING MON NIGH
AND TUES AS THE NEXT MAIN PRECIP WINDOW. EXTENT OF CURRENTLY PROGGED
MOISTURE FETCH/CONVEYOR UP OFF THE WESTERN GULF COULD FUEL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS COMPLEX THAT GET GENERATED BY THIS FROPA.
IF FRONT STALL ACRS THE AREA...A PROLONGED STORMY PERIOD COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. 12
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
107 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID MORNING TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME STRONG OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH AT
WILLISTON AND DICKINSON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE 06 UTC TAF ISSUANCE...ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER AT KDIK AND
KISN. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT...PROVIDING A POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE WEST AFTER 08 UTC. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE AS YOU MOVE
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT AN EARLY MORNING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK AND MINOT.
WILL HOLD OFF THOUGH ON INCLUDING THIS IN THE 06 UTC TAF.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT
/8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME STRONG OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH AT
WILLISTON AND DICKINSON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE 06 UTC TAF ISSUANCE...ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER AT KDIK AND
KISN. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT...PROVIDING A POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE WEST AFTER 08 UTC. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE AS YOU MOVE
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT AN EARLY MORNING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK AND MINOT.
WILL HOLD OFF THOUGH ON INCLUDING THIS IN THE 06 UTC TAF.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
554 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST
AND WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE AWAY BY SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF BRUSHES THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE UPDATE INCREASED POPS FOR THE AM OVER NORTHWEST OHIO A
LITTLE AND CHANGED WORDING TO SCATTERED OR ISOLATED. STILL WENT
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AM AND SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
A NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 11C WILL START THE MORNING.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE EARLY MORNING COULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
SOME AREAS AND THEN AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE MODIFIES AND WITH
THE JUNE SUN...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OR PARTLY SUNNY.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE ARE STRUGGLING TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY REACH THE SHORELINE. MOST OF THE
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE HRRR MODEL...RUC...WRF AND THE NAM MODEL
TRIES TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO BY
AROUND DAYBREAK. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT THIS. BASED ON THE RADAR
AT 330 AM WILL HAVE SOME 30 POPS FOR THE EARLY MORNING OVER TOL
AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AND THEN THE MODELS HAVE QPF FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS. BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AROUND...WENT WITH 20 POPS. NO THUNDER AS THE AIRMASS
IS TOO STABLE.
THE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE THE SAME AS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BECAUSE OF THE
NORTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST IS STILL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY EVEN THOUGH MANY OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
QPF AT TIMES. LOW CHANCE POPS CAN BE ADDED AS NECESSARY LATER. BY
FRIDAY A RIDGE ALOFT IS BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE REGION SO DRY LOOKS GOOD.
USED HPC AND MEX FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
STILL SOME HINTS THAT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TOP THE RIDGE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY-ISH AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE 20 PERCENT SHRA/TS CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND AN UPPER LOW EAST
OF THE REGION WILL TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
EXPECTING OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT FOR NE OH/NW PA...THEN A FEW HOURS OF MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN CU DEVELOP. SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE HAVE
BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME...BUT MODELS HINT AT A SEVERAL HOURS
THIS MORNING WHERE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...FOCUSED
BETWEEN TOL AND CLE AND DOWN TO FDY...LIKELY DODGING ANY TAF SITE.
THEREFORE HAVE DRY TAFS. CU WILL LIFT TO VFR BY AFTERNOON AND THEN
SCATTER THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE ISLANDS AND ALSO A MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK FROM CLEVELAND TO CATAWBA. WAVES SHOULD STAY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA AS WINDS REALLY SHOULD NOT EXCEED 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WINDS
RELAX TONIGHT AND WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW EAST OF THE REGION SO
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NNW WED/THU. WINDS WILL START
TO BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
332 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST
AND WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE AWAY BY SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF BRUSHES THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 11C WILL START THE MORNING.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE EARLY MORNING COULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
SOME AREAS AND THEN AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE MODIFIES AND WITH
THE JUNE SUN...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OR PARTLY SUNNY.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE ARE STRUGGLING TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY REACH THE SHORELINE. MOST OF THE
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE HRRR MODEL...RUC...WRF AND THE NAM MODEL
TRIES TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO BY
AROUND DAYBREAK. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT THIS. BASED ON THE RADAR
AT 330 AM WILL HAVE SOME 30 POPS FOR THE EARLY MORNING OVER TOL
AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AND THEN THE MODELS HAVE QPF FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS. BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AROUND...WENT WITH 20 POPS. NO THUNDER AS THE AIRMASS
IS TOO STABLE.
THE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE THE SAME AS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BECAUSE OF THE
NORTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST IS STILL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY EVEN THOUGH MANY OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
QPF AT TIMES. LOW CHANCE POPS CAN BE ADDED AS NECESSARY LATER. BY
FRIDAY A RIDGE ALOFT IS BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE REGION SO DRY LOOKS GOOD.
USED HPC AND MEX FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
STILL SOME HINTS THAT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TOP THE RIDGE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY-ISH AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE 20 PERCENT SHRA/TS CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND AN UPPER LOW EAST
OF THE REGION WILL TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
EXPECTING OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT FOR NE OH/NW PA...THEN A FEW HOURS OF MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN CU DEVELOP. SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE HAVE
BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME...BUT MODELS HINT AT A SEVERAL HOURS
THIS MORNING WHERE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...FOCUSED
BETWEEN TOL AND CLE AND DOWN TO FDY...LIKELY DODGING ANY TAF SITE.
THEREFORE HAVE DRY TAFS. CU WILL LIFT TO VFR BY AFTERNOON AND THEN
SCATTER THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE ISLANDS AND ALSO A MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK FROM CLEVELAND TO CATAWBA. WAVES SHOULD STAY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA AS WINDS REALLY SHOULD NOT EXCEED 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WINDS
RELAX TONIGHT AND WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW EAST OF THE REGION SO
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NNW WED/THU. WINDS WILL START
TO BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
125 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY
FLOW AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
AS IT PICKS UP LAKE MOISTURE...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS TRYING TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALSO SHOWERS ON THE
LAKE HAVING A TOUGH TIME AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. THE HRRR MODEL TRIES
TO BRING IN A NICE ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK.
AT THIS TIME SKEPTICAL ABOUT THAT...BUT WILL MONITOR IT. MADE JUST
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE N FLOW THAT DEVELOPS WILL PULL IN SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND
INCREASE CLOUDS AGAIN ON TUE DESPITE MODEL INDICATIONS OF CLEARING
SKIES. THE LAKE WATER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS ABOUT
10C...NOT SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BUT ENOUGH FOR
CLOUDS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION...WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH MAINLY LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH. BY WED THE
SAME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT THE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE NE
AT THE SURFACE. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT LIMITING THE
EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LVL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE AND BRING THE BEST INSTABILITY WELL TO OUR E.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE INDICATING A PIECE OF
JET ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ENERGY WILL
MOVE. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
GRIDS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT WILL BE WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS BY
SUNDAY MAY BE WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND AN UPPER LOW EAST
OF THE REGION WILL TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
EXPECTING OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT FOR NE OH/NW PA...THEN A FEW HOURS OF MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN CU DEVELOP. SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE HAVE
BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME...BUT MODELS HINT AT A SEVERAL HOURS
THIS MORNING WHERE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...FOCUSED
BETWEEN TOL AND CLE AND DOWN TO FDY...LIKELY DODGING ANY TAF SITE.
THEREFORE HAVE DRY TAFS. CU WILL LIFT TO VFR BY AFTERNOON AND THEN
SCATTER THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE LAKE WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 10-15KT...WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IF NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS
BEHIND THE TROUGH LATER TONIGHT A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK PROVIDING QUIET
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1229 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY
FLOW AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
AS IT PICKS UP LAKE MOISTURE...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS TRYING TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALSO SHOWERS ON THE
LAKE HAVING A TOUGH TIME AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. THE HRRR MODEL TRIES
TO BRING IN A NICE ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK.
AT THIS TIME SKEPTICAL ABOUT THAT...BUT WILL MONITOR IT. MADE JUST
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE N FLOW THAT DEVELOPS WILL PULL IN SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND
INCREASE CLOUDS AGAIN ON TUE DESPITE MODEL INDICATIONS OF CLEARING
SKIES. THE LAKE WATER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS ABOUT
10C...NOT SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BUT ENOUGH FOR
CLOUDS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION...WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH MAINLY LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH. BY WED THE
SAME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT THE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE NE
AT THE SURFACE. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT LIMITING THE
EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LVL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE AND BRING THE BEST INSTABILITY WELL TO OUR E.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE INDICATING A PIECE OF
JET ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ENERGY WILL
MOVE. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
GRIDS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT WILL BE WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. HIGHS BY
SUNDAY MAY BE WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL TROUGHS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE UPPER TROUGH HOLDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. TIMING A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE TRICKY...
AND CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY COME DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE ERIE (KCLE AND
KERI) ARE MOST VULNERABLE AS WELL AS INLAND NE OH/NW PA... AND I
THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR CEILINGS FOR A WHILE
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS THE CUMULUS FORMS WITH
THE INITIAL DAYTIME HEATING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TUESDAY EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE LAKE WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 10-15KT...WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IF NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS
BEHIND THE TROUGH LATER TONIGHT A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK PROVIDING QUIET
CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
447 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE REMAINED ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS
BEEN NEARLY NON-EXISTENT OTHER THAN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER DUE TO WEAK LAPSE
RATES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND OVERALL WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS.
SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AREA THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.
.TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT BISECTING THE MID
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE INDICIES YIELD SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000
J/KG...LIS/ BETWEEN -4 TO -7...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KTS. HOWEVER...OVERALL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW 6 C/KM. DEFINITELY NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY BUT WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY.
MEANWHILE...REGIONAL METAR/AWOS OBSERVATION TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASING TREND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MID SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE AS OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AT BEST. THUS...I HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
00Z WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN RAIN FREE WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN
OPEN WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.
WILL CARRY LOW END /20-30/ POPS FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
RAISING POPS UPWARD ACCORDINGLY IF THIS MODEL SOLUTION CONTINUES
TO SHOW UP IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MCS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN KY HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE LAST
HOUR. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND THE OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR HAVE
DECIDED TO PULL THE VCTS AT KMEM AND KTUP AND JUST KEEP IT AT
KMKL. A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS COULD PROMOTE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT FAVORED SITES OVERNIGHT. KMKL ALREADY REPORTING 5SM
AND THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ALSO SMALL AT KTUP. DECIDED TO ADD
SOME FOG AT KMKL AND KTUP WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBYS. AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NE AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS TUESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCU WILL
PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN VFR CONDS
EXPECTED BY ABOUT 05/16-05/18Z.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 87 70 85 65 / 60 40 20 10
MKL 85 64 82 57 / 50 60 20 10
JBR 86 67 84 62 / 50 30 10 10
TUP 85 68 86 61 / 60 50 40 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
UPDATE...
NEW WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GETTING READY TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
AT MID-AFTERNOON TIGHT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MCV LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL AR. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHWEST FROM
IL/IN. SHOWERS WERE LOCATED BEHIND THAT FRONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL MO.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
SHORT TERM...
THE TWO FEATURES MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS ARE OUR FOCUS FOR
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE MCV MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
MO/KY IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT IS EXPECTED FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTH. THE BEST TARGETED AREA FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL SOUTHEAST
THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...WEST TN INTO A PORTION OF
NORTHEAST MS.
ON TUESDAY NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL WILL END OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING TO THE
SOUTH PORTION BY EVENING.
LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MID-SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
PATTERN. FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MODELS
HAVE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TX MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF
REGION. THIS RESULTS IN A GULF MOISTURE FLOW INTO OUR AREA BY DAY 7
THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MCS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN KY HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE LAST
HOUR. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND THE OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR HAVE
DECIDED TO PULL THE VCTS AT KMEM AND KTUP AND JUST KEEP IT AT
KMKL. A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS COULD PROMOTE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT FAVORED SITES OVERNIGHT. KMKL ALREADY REPORTING 5SM
AND THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ALSO SMALL AT KTUP. DECIDED TO ADD
SOME FOG AT KMKL AND KTUP WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBYS. AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NE AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS TUESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCU WILL
PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN VFR CONDS
EXPECTED BY ABOUT 05/16-05/18Z.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 70 85 65 85 / 40 20 10 10
MKL 64 82 57 82 / 60 20 10 10
JBR 67 84 62 84 / 30 10 10 10
TUP 68 86 61 86 / 50 40 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
437 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO A LOW
IN ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THETA-E RIDGE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT
WERE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE INTO NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS JUST GRAZING THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
WATAUGA AND WILKES COUNTIES. THE BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED SOUTH
THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING WAS JUST
EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BEFORE
8AM/12Z.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROF WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
EAST TODAY. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS. CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND THE
NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW AND CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. RUC AND LOCAL
WRF BOTH SHOWED SHOWERS DEVELOP FIRST IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AFTER 15Z THEN BECOMING SCATTERED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE ALIGNED BEST PROBABILITY AND TIMING
OF THE SHOWERS TODAY WITH THESE FORECAST TRENDS.
TONIGHT EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BELOW ABOUT 6000
FEET. BUFKIT SHOWED AIR MASS MOISTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 00Z/8PM
AND BY 06Z/2AM EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED.
HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF RAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ADJACENT EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
TOOK A SPLIT OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV GUIDANCE TONIGHT SINCE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...
TOUGHER FORECAST THAN USUAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JUNE. COMBINATION
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA...SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR
A COOL AND WET DAY ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH. A VORT MAX MOVING TO THE KY/TN LINE COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD PRODUCE CONSISTENT ENOUGH
LIFT FOR LIKELY POPS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. LESS POPS IN THE LYH/DAN
CORRIDOR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM DESPITE THE DENSE OVERCAST
THANKS TO STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE. LATE DAY WINDS DO BECOME S AND EVEN
WSW ACROSS NW NC...WHICH MAY BE AN INDICATION THAT THE INSITU WEDGE
STARTS TO ERODE FROM NW NC TO ABOUT HLX/PSK DURING THE DAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH LESS OVERCAST COULD ALLOW SOME STORMS TO BUBBLE UP
LWB/BLF/MKJ/TNB DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE
CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR...BUT MOSTLY WENT WITH THE MET ALTHOUGH
CHOSE NOT TO GO AS COLD AS GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS SUGGEST. CONSIDERING THE
TIMING OF THE SHRTWV FROM THE TN RIVER VALLEY...MIGHT BE POSSIBLE
THAT TEMPS IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH MIGHT NOT
RISE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT CHILLY ALTHOUGH
IT IS A POSSIBILITY. LOOKS LIKE A DAY WHERE LWB AND BCB MAY BE
WARMER THAN ROA. ALTHOUGH WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTH WED
NIGHT...WILL KEEP A WEAK WEDGE WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE FOR THE
ENTIRE NIGHT. RAIN MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WITH SURFACE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA AND A WEAK HIGH NOSING
IN FROM THE NW...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
CLEARING ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL PUSH AREA OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE FURTHER EAST ON THURSDAY SUCH THAT HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR
STORM CWA WIDE WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE STILL AROUND. THURSDAY`S
HIGHS SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE 70S. WAA INITIALLY IN THE WEST ADDS
ANOTHER 5F TO MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY...WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALTHOUGH WEAK WITH DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW SOME MIN TEMPS
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AT THE COLDEST SPOTS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM EDT MONDAY...
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST.
POPS WERE REDUCED A LITTLE MORE ON FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. DRY WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND HPC GUIDANCE IS OVERALL QUITE REASONABLE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...SO THIS FORECAST WILL REFLECT A SIMPLE BLEND FROM
THESE SOLUTIONS WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR TOPOGRAPHICAL REASONS.
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...AND A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. AS
HEIGHTS BUILD LATER IN THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY
CLIMB HIGHER. MORE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FROM A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WERE PLACED ON THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND
HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES INCLUDING KDAN. HAVE MVFR FOG IN THE
KBCB AND KBLF SINCE THEY HAD RAIN EARLIER MONDAY EVENING AND HAVE
NOW CLEARED OUT. WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR AT KDAN. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AND WIND WILL HOLD IN OVERNIGHT
TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. OBSERVATIONS AT KLWB ALREADY INDICATING
IFR FOG HAS FORMED IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY SO HAVE LIFR FOG IN AT
THE AIRPORT THROUGH 8AM. ALL OF THE FOG WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE MAINTAINED
VCSH IN THE KBCB/KBLF/KLWB/KLYH AND KROA TAFS.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. BUFKIT SHOWED A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY IFR
CEILINGS OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL AFTER 06Z.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY AT ROA/LYH/DAN AND BCB.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND RETURN TO VFR INTO
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
751 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN CONUS. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINS VERY WEAK AS A RESULT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY
REMAINING TO THE WEST...NORTH...AND EAST OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...BUT
ALSO SHOWS A BROAD AXIS OF MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE SURFACE WIND ACROSS OUR CWA
REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A RESULT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH STRETCHING
DEFORMATION FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRIMARY AXIS OF DIFFLUENCE AND
RESULTANT DEFORMATION REMAINS NORTH OF NEBRASKA...SOMEWHAT
INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION...EVIDENT ON RAP ANALYSIS DATA WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION ALONG THE 310K SURFACE...AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IS
PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH OMEGA FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION TO EXTEND
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. KUEX
IS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY WITH THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS ACTIVITY JUST SOUTHWEST OF KONL AS OF 1240Z. DEEP LAYER
MUCAPE VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE VERY
LOW PER THE SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE...WITH PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
LAPS AND RAP ANALYSIS ALSO SUPPORTING THIS. THAT BEING SAID THERE
IS APPARENTLY JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR OCCASIONAL CG PRODUCTION
WITH THE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF KONL. WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
DIFFLUENCE AND RESULTANT DEFORMATION REMAINING NORTH OF OUR
AREA...AND WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM OUR AREA...THE CURRENT FEELING IS THIS CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OUR CWA...DESPITE CURRENT STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTH.
GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR THIS
MORNING WITH INCREASING CIRRUS NOTED NEAR KODX DUE TO THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGRI
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE SOME CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM
ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE LOWERED THE DEW POINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT THE
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS TO THE EAST A LITTLE AS
WELL AS HAS LESS AMPLITUDE. A SURFACE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST BUT
REMAINS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE WARM AND
WITH MIXING DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN AND HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS
AGAIN. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT ONLY MOVES
SLOWLY TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH.
FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED TO THE
EAST AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z FRIDAY...SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE PRESENT TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE VERY HIGH MUCH ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY DUE
TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED POPS AND
LIMITED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF FORECAST AREA...NEAR
THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STRONGER...UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTH
WEST. THIS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BREAK
DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...STEERING A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WINDS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH WILL
ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL BUMP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN PRESENT THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TIMING BETWEEN EC/GFS
FAIRLY SIMILAR AT THIS POINT...AND MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BUT AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET
START TO THE MONTH OF JUNE...SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND FORCING ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THE COMBINATION OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHLIGHT THIS IN HWO.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM/AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1053 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...
FORGOT TO MENTION...WATCHING SOME CELLULAR MID LEVEL CU INCREASING
IN BELTRAMI COUNTY. HRRR MODEL WANTS TO DEVELOP SHRA-TSRA JUST
EAST OF US IN KOOCH COUNTY MN AND DROP SOUTH TODAY.... WILL WATCH
FOR ANY LOW POP IN FAR EAST THIS AFTN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MEAN 500 MB RIDGE OVER CNTRL ND. HOWEVER...ALSO
PRESENT IN CENTRAL PART OF THE RIDGE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WHICH IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. AREA IS ON EDGE OF
INSTABILITY GRADIENT AN IN AREA OF 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION.
FLOW AT 500-700 MB IS QUITE WEAK WHERE ACTIVITY IS IN CENTER OF
RIDGE SO DONT THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOO MUCH AND OVERALL
TREND SHOULD BE SOME DISSIPATION BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
IN SOME FORM THE REST OF THE DAY. EASTERN EDGE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS
FROM HARVEY TO JAMESTOWN TO OAKES WILL CONTINUE A WHILE BEFORE
LIKELY DISSIPATING SOME AS WELL. OVERALL FLOW WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIP JUST WEST OF THE FCST AREA. DESPITE SOME HIGH CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER RIDGE SFC TEMPS RISING PRETTY FAST...A BIT FASTER
THAN YESTERDAY SO BUMPED UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN MANY
AREAS...WARMEST IN THE VALLEY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS TODAY...WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH THE RIDGE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A VERY WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ND. THINK THAT THE PRECIP
WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AT THIS POINT AS MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL STAY IN THAT AREA. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP LOWS STAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE COMING OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE NAM AND GFS MUCH FASTER IN BRINGING THE SFC
TROUGH TOWARDS THE CWA AND BREAKING OUT PRECIP. THE ECMWF AND GEM
ARE SLOWER WITH THE SFC FEATURES...BUT SHOW A BIT OF PRECIP
BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND
NOT MUCH CAP...THINK THAT SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
AGAIN BE VERY WARM AND IN THE 80S.
THE WEAK SFC TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AGAIN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE FEATURE. GOING FORECAST HAD 30-40 POPS MAINLY WEST OF
THE RED RIVER...AND THIS CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
POSITION OF THE SFC TROUGH.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY THURSDAY...AND HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE COME DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENTER THE CWA OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAKENING
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AGAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND HOW
FAST THEY BREAK OUT QPF OVER THE CWA. ALL BUT THE NAM AGREE THAT
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY STORMY...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL 500MB PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SHORT WAVE FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOME ON FRI
BRINGING INCREASED POPS. BAROCLINIC ZONE STAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR SAT AND SUN WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
NORTH. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FROPA SUNDAY PM...SETTING UP A ROUND OF TSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW POPS CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH 500MB UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND COLD CORE MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE INSTABILITY
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN. TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO
THE 8 TO 11 KT RANGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
RIDDLE/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
743 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST
AND WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE AWAY BY SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF BRUSHES THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE UPDATE INCREASED POPS FOR THE AM OVER NORTHWEST OHIO A
LITTLE AND CHANGED WORDING TO SCATTERED OR ISOLATED. STILL WENT
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AM AND SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
A NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 11C WILL START THE MORNING.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE EARLY MORNING COULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
SOME AREAS AND THEN AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE MODIFIES AND WITH
THE JUNE SUN...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OR PARTLY SUNNY.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE ARE STRUGGLING TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY REACH THE SHORELINE. MOST OF THE
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE HRRR MODEL...RUC...WRF AND THE NAM MODEL
TRIES TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO BY
AROUND DAYBREAK. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT THIS. BASED ON THE RADAR
AT 330 AM WILL HAVE SOME 30 POPS FOR THE EARLY MORNING OVER TOL
AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AND THEN THE MODELS HAVE QPF FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS. BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AROUND...WENT WITH 20 POPS. NO THUNDER AS THE AIRMASS
IS TOO STABLE.
THE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE THE SAME AS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BECAUSE OF THE
NORTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST IS STILL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY EVEN THOUGH MANY OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
QPF AT TIMES. LOW CHANCE POPS CAN BE ADDED AS NECESSARY LATER. BY
FRIDAY A RIDGE ALOFT IS BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE REGION SO DRY LOOKS GOOD.
USED HPC AND MEX FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
STILL SOME HINTS THAT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TOP THE RIDGE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKES SATURDAY-ISH AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE 20 PERCENT SHRA/TS CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS...WITH SOME BREAKS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES GO VFR. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW
SHOWERS ASSISTED BY A TROUGH AND THE LAKE FROM CLE TO MFD TO FDY
AND TOL. BEST CHANCES OF A SHOWER WILL BE MFD AND FDY. SHOULD SEE
SKIES SCATTER THIS EVENING. MVFR MAY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT LESS LIKELY OR AT LEAST NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS IT
WILL BE DRIER.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE ISLANDS AND ALSO A MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK FROM CLEVELAND TO CATAWBA. WAVES SHOULD STAY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA AS WINDS REALLY SHOULD NOT EXCEED 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WINDS
RELAX TONIGHT AND WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW EAST OF THE REGION SO
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NNW WED/THU. WINDS WILL START
TO BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
731 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO A LOW
IN ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THETA-E RIDGE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT
WERE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE INTO NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS JUST GRAZING THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
WATAUGA AND WILKES COUNTIES. THE BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED SOUTH
THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING WAS JUST
EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BEFORE
8AM/12Z.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROF WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
EAST TODAY. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS. CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND THE
NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW AND CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. RUC AND LOCAL
WRF BOTH SHOWED SHOWERS DEVELOP FIRST IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AFTER 15Z THEN BECOMING SCATTERED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE ALIGNED BEST PROBABILITY AND TIMING
OF THE SHOWERS TODAY WITH THESE FORECAST TRENDS.
TONIGHT EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BELOW ABOUT 6000
FEET. BUFKIT SHOWED AIR MASS MOISTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 00Z/8PM
AND BY 06Z/2AM EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED.
HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF RAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ADJACENT EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
TOOK A SPLIT OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV GUIDANCE TONIGHT SINCE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...
TOUGHER FORECAST THAN USUAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JUNE. COMBINATION
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA...SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR
A COOL AND WET DAY ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH. A VORT MAX MOVING TO THE KY/TN LINE COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD PRODUCE CONSISTENT ENOUGH
LIFT FOR LIKELY POPS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. LESS POPS IN THE LYH/DAN
CORRIDOR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM DESPITE THE DENSE OVERCAST
THANKS TO STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE. LATE DAY WINDS DO BECOME S AND EVEN
WSW ACROSS NW NC...WHICH MAY BE AN INDICATION THAT THE INSITU WEDGE
STARTS TO ERODE FROM NW NC TO ABOUT HLX/PSK DURING THE DAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH LESS OVERCAST COULD ALLOW SOME STORMS TO BUBBLE UP
LWB/BLF/MKJ/TNB DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE
CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR...BUT MOSTLY WENT WITH THE MET ALTHOUGH
CHOSE NOT TO GO AS COLD AS GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS SUGGEST. CONSIDERING THE
TIMING OF THE SHRTWV FROM THE TN RIVER VALLEY...MIGHT BE POSSIBLE
THAT TEMPS IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH MIGHT NOT
RISE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT CHILLY ALTHOUGH
IT IS A POSSIBILITY. LOOKS LIKE A DAY WHERE LWB AND BCB MAY BE
WARMER THAN ROA. ALTHOUGH WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTH WED
NIGHT...WILL KEEP A WEAK WEDGE WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE FOR THE
ENTIRE NIGHT. RAIN MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WITH SURFACE LOW WELL OUT TO SEA AND A WEAK HIGH NOSING
IN FROM THE NW...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
CLEARING ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL PUSH AREA OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE FURTHER EAST ON THURSDAY SUCH THAT HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR
STORM CWA WIDE WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE STILL AROUND. THURSDAY`S
HIGHS SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE 70S. WAA INITIALLY IN THE WEST ADDS
ANOTHER 5F TO MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY...WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALTHOUGH WEAK WITH DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW SOME MIN TEMPS
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AT THE COLDEST SPOTS SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM EDT MONDAY...
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST.
POPS WERE REDUCED A LITTLE MORE ON FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. DRY WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND HPC GUIDANCE IS OVERALL QUITE REASONABLE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...SO THIS FORECAST WILL REFLECT A SIMPLE BLEND FROM
THESE SOLUTIONS WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR TOPOGRAPHICAL REASONS.
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...AND A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. AS
HEIGHTS BUILD LATER IN THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY
CLIMB HIGHER. MORE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FROM A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WERE PLACED ON THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHALLOW FOG FORMED OVERNIGHT IN THE WESTERN RIVER VALLEYS. ALL OF
THE FOG WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KBLF/KLWB/KBCB WILL BE VFR BY 14Z.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE MAINTAINED
VCSH IN THE KBCB/KBLF/KLWB/KLYH AND KROA TAFS.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. BUFKIT SHOWED A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE TAF AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH
12Z.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ROA/LYH/DAN AND BCB.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND RETURN TO VFR INTO
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1014 AM PDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
OVERNIGHT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD. SOME WET SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT DOWN
TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET.
THERE WAS 2 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL SNOW REPORTED AT KINGVALE BY A
SPOTTER. WEB CAMS AT LASSEN NATIONAL PARK SHOW SOME ACCUMULATED
SNOW AS WELL. SOME SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LINGERED INTO THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING BUT HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE BACK END OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH SOME
SOLAR HEATING WILL GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. BOTH
THE HRRR AND WRF MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
AROUND SUNSET.
OTHER MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS BREEZY WINDS PICKING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL AND ARE ABOUT 3 TO 12 DEGREES LOWER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER THOUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL SUN AND AIRMASS WARMING.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 70S. CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
MAY MAKE VIEWING THE VENUS TRANSIT THIS AFTERNOON TRICKY. THERE
SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE VALLEY TO ALLOW AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE TRANSIT TO BE SEEN. THE TRANSIT BEGINS
AROUND 3 PM PDT. ANYONE VIEWING THE TRANSIT IS URGED TO USE PROPER
EYE PROTECTION. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. EK
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES NORCAL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHERN SHASTA
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. WARMING IN TEMPS
MAY RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THIS POINT. SLH
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE VALLEY...INCREASING N TO NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S STORM. TAF SITES SHOULD GENERALLY SEE
WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE SIERRA AND SIERRA
FOOTHILLS...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW CIGS AND
SHOWERS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TODAY FROM NEAR 5000 FT TO ABOVE
6500 FT. HIGH-ELEVATION SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY TONIGHT.
-DVC
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1130 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST COLORADO (THE WESTERN HALF OF MOFFAT AND RIO BLANCO
COUNTIES). IN THESE AREAS...WIND GUSTS WILL BE APPROACHING HIGH
WIND CRITERIA THAT COINCIDES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS VERY DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH VIRGA
SHAFTS. WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 57 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THIS
AREA.
EXPANDED THE AREAS OF THE WIND ADVISORY EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF MOFFAT AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE GRAND VALLEY. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...BUT HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT
PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH IS LIKELY. DOUGLAS PASS...GREAT
DIVIDE RAWS AND THE LOMA/MACK TOWNS ARE TYPICALLY WIND PRONE
AREAS AND ELECTED TO INCLUDE THESE SPOTS IN THE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
TODAY: EXPECTING WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS A
STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWEEPS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY. THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SYSTEMS APPROACH. GFS40 INDICATED 7H WINDS UP TO 50 KTS ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING
THOUGH THE NAM12 WAS MORE SUBDUED WITH PEAK 7H WINDS NEAR 40 KTS.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS FAVORED...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY
WINDY TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO WHICH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE.
IN ADDITION...THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW AND THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH RELEGATING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR DATA SUGGESTS PW
VALUES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SO EXPECT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH BASED...PRODUCING MORE WIND THAN RAIN.
7H TEMPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REMAIN SIMILARLY WARM WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY SO FOUND THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS PUZZLING.
CONSEQUENTLY...BOOSTED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS NUMBERS
FOR MOST AREAS AND VERY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: THE MODELS SHOW THE COOL FRONT REACHING
OUR WESTERN EDGE BY 6 PM MDT TUE...THEN SWEEPING OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AREA-WIDE BY
SUNSET. HOWEVER AS THE WEAKENING FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
CWA...AREAS WILL REMAIN MIXED AND GUSTY AHEAD OF IT...WITH
INCREASING STABILITY IN ITS WAKE. COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.
THE FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY EARLY WED AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER A MORE
RELAXED FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER STAYS OFF THE WA/BC COAST THROUGH THU.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...THE DIP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHARPEST OVER THE NORTH WITH HIGHS ON WED 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUE`S READINGS. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE A MORE MODEST COOLING WITH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE ONLY DROPPING AROUND 3-5 DEGREES. THEN ON THU THE
WARM UP WILL ALSO BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE NORTH...BUT TEMPS WILL
STILL LAG BEHIND NUMBERS SEEN EARLY IN THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
THE GFS AND ECMWF-HIRES WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MOVE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY THEN EASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWFA BOUNDARY BY 00Z SUNDAY.
GIVEN A CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH RECENT
STORMS...THE FRONTS PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT BUT SOME RELIEF FROM THE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
STRONG PREFRONTAL WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM 18Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
03Z THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST PEAK WIND GUSTS G40 KTS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS
INCLUDES THE KVEL TAF SITE. WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG FOR
KGJT...KRIL...AND KEGE WITH G35 KTS MORE COMMON. MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD TODAY. LOCAL
VISIBILITY OF 3-5SM IN BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UTAH DESERTS AND THE GRAND VALLEY INCLUDING KGJT.
SHORT LIVED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT MON JUNE 2012
UPDATED TO INCLUDE UT FIRE ZONES 486 AND 487 WHOSE FUELS WERE
UPDATED TO CRITICAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ZONES INCLUDED IN THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUE ARE COLORADO...200-201-202-203-207-
290-292-293...AND IN UTAH 483-484-486-487.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NE
UTAH AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO. BUT ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...NEAR AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
AND DRY LIGHTNING.
AFTER A COOL DOWN AND LESS WIND ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE UTAH
AND NW COLORADO.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203-207-
290-292-293.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003-006-020.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ483-484-486-
487.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023>025-027-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL/ELH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...MC/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1027 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST COLORADO (THE WESTERN HALF OF MOFFAT AND RIO BLANCO
COUNTIES). IN THESE AREAS...WIND GUSTS WILL BE APPROACHING HIGH
WIND CRITERIA THAT COINCIDES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS VERY DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH VIRGA
SHAFTS. WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 57 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THIS
AREA.
EXPANDED THE AREAS OF THE WIND ADVISORY EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF MOFFAT AND RIO BLANCO COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE GRAND VALLEY. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...BUT HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT
PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH IS LIKELY. DOUGLAS PASS...GREAT
DIVIDE RAWS AND THE LOMA/MACK TOWNS ARE TYPICALLY WIND PRONE
AREAS AND ELECTED TO INCLUDE THESE SPOTS IN THE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
TODAY: EXPECTING WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS A
STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWEEPS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY. THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SYSTEMS APPROACH. GFS40 INDICATED 7H WINDS UP TO 50 KTS ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING
THOUGH THE NAM12 WAS MORE SUBDUED WITH PEAK 7H WINDS NEAR 40 KTS.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS FAVORED...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY
WINDY TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO WHICH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE.
IN ADDITION...THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW AND THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH RELEGATING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR DATA SUGGESTS PW
VALUES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SO EXPECT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH BASED...PRODUCING MORE WIND THAN RAIN.
7H TEMPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REMAIN SIMILARLY WARM WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY SO FOUND THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS PUZZLING.
CONSEQUENTLY...BOOSTED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS NUMBERS
FOR MOST AREAS AND VERY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: THE MODELS SHOW THE COOL FRONT REACHING
OUR WESTERN EDGE BY 6 PM MDT TUE...THEN SWEEPING OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AREA-WIDE BY
SUNSET. HOWEVER AS THE WEAKENING FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
CWA...AREAS WILL REMAIN MIXED AND GUSTY AHEAD OF IT...WITH
INCREASING STABILITY IN ITS WAKE. COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.
THE FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY EARLY WED AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER A MORE
RELAXED FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER STAYS OFF THE WA/BC COAST THROUGH THU.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...THE DIP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHARPEST OVER THE NORTH WITH HIGHS ON WED 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUE`S READINGS. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE A MORE MODEST COOLING WITH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE ONLY DROPPING AROUND 3-5 DEGREES. THEN ON THU THE
WARM UP WILL ALSO BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE NORTH...BUT TEMPS WILL
STILL LAG BEHIND NUMBERS SEEN EARLY IN THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
THE GFS AND ECMWF-HIRES WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MOVE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY THEN EASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWFA BOUNDARY BY 00Z SUNDAY.
GIVEN A CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH RECENT
STORMS...THE FRONTS PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT BUT SOME RELIEF FROM THE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS A
DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH NORTHEAST
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS
EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH...APPROACHING 60 MPH OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. WINDS TO THE
EAST WILL BE LESS INTENSE...THOUGH STILL BREEZY AND CAPABLE OF
GENERATING SIGNIFICANT MECHANICAL TURBULENCE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WITHOUT GENERATING ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE RESULTING
IN STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBY TO BE THE RULE OVER EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT MON JUNE 2012
UPDATED TO INCLUDE UT FIRE ZONES 486 AND 487 WHOSE FUELS WERE
UPDATED TO CRITICAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ZONES INCLUDED IN THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUE ARE COLORADO...200-201-202-203-207-
290-292-293...AND IN UTAH 483-484-486-487.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NE
UTAH AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO. BUT ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...NEAR AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
AND DRY LIGHTNING.
AFTER A COOL DOWN AND LESS WIND ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE UTAH
AND NW COLORADO.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203-207-
290-292-293.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003-006-020.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ483-484-486-
487.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023>025-027-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL/ELH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...MC/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
308 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2012
...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358 in Effect until 9 PM EDT...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
So far the evolution of deep moist convection has not worked out
quite as expected. It appears that our local 12 UTC 4km WRF has
initialized the best among the latest NWP guidance. It simulates
the strong convection just to our north, but keeps these cells
propagating east southeast along the cold front just to our north
(which is what has happened so far, and is supported by the analyzed
deep layer wind fields). This model also initiated convective cells
over our western zones later this afternoon as a well-defined mid
level MCV (currently over South Central AL) approaches and interacts
with the FL Panhandle sea breeze front (or any other mesoscale
boundaries). These storms, some of which could be strong to severe,
move east through the evening but weaken due to evening cooling
and/or moving into a more stable airmass, where SBCAPE values were
only about 1000 J/KG or less (based on the KTAE 18 UTC sounding, the
weak CU field observed on visible imagery, and latest RAP analyses).
Because of the complexity of this forecast, there are other
scenarios that could occur and we don`t want to minimize the threat
for severe storms with a convective watch in effect. However, recent
analyses and model output do suggest that the overall threat may be
a little less than what we expected prior to this afternoon. To
summarize, we now think the highest threat for isolated severe
storms will be in the FL Panhandle and Southeast AL this afternoon
and evening, but there is still a low-end threat elsewhere until
later this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night)...
Low end severe threat will continue into this evening, but should
end before midnight as the MCV passes southeast of the area and the
boundary layer stabilizes. PoPs are held in the likely range over
our GA zones and inland FL Big Bend north of the interstate.
Conditions will not be quite as favorable for severe weather across
the area tomorrow. The primary MCV will be southeast of the area and
there do not appear to be any others lurking upstream. However, the
frontal boundary will be pulling up stationary during the day,
roughly bisecting the forecast area from ENE to WSW, or roughly
from Savannah to Bainbridge to Pensacola. Shear values drop off
considerably. However, with northwest flow aloft and a juicy air
mass along and south of the front, we will still need pretty high
PoPs (likely to categorical) across the southeast half of the
forecast area. Some drying will occur north of the front and PoPs
taper to low end chance (30) over Quitman County. Will only include
mention of isolated T+ for the higher PoP areas. SPC has the area in
a 5% risk area east of the Apalachicola River. The front will
gradually become more diffuse as we head through Wednesday night
into Thursday. PoPs will taper from 60 far southeast to 20 far
northwest Thursday afternoon. The dry push from the northwest will
continue Thursday night and it is about that time that we will
finally see the long wave trough pull away to the northeast.
.LONG TERM (Friday through next Tuesday)...
Models continue to be in reasonably good agreement. The large scale
longwave pattern continues highly amplified highlighted by a deep
trough over extreme wrn Pac/wrn U.S, ridging over Cntrl Conus with
axis down plains, and a positively tilted trough from low well east
of Canadian Maritimes WSW into Mid South and NRN Gulf region. At
surface, front responsible for recent weather aligned WSW to ENE
across coastal Gulf anchored by lows on MS coast and well east of
GA. Thus the juxtaposition of trough/front will keep the FL counties
and S/Cntrl GA in a moist unstable onshore flow with chances of
locally heavy rainfall especially in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend.
Conversely, SE AL/SW GA will be increasingly dominated by high
pressure diving out of OH Valley and dry air overspreading NW-SE
across SE AL. Clouds and rain will keep max temps in the upper 80s
to low 90s, but higher over SE AL.
As the wrn trough moves ewd thru Intermountain region thru Fri then
thru the Plains on the weekend, Cntrl ridge builds into Ern region
while Ern trough pushes increasingly offshore beginning Friday. By
late Friday, this will push front further swd where it will likely
dissipate over the Nrn Gulf while the surface high moves Ewd into
the Wrn Atlc with local flow veering to onshore into at least
Monday. POPs will return to at or below normal, especially across
AL/GA. Both the Euro and GFS agree on a cut off low approaching
the area from the west at the end of the extended term. This
combined with moisture return on back side of high off east coast
will bring chance pops back to the forecast Mon and Tues, but
mainly for WRN Panhandle and SRN Al. With southerly flow, we will
begin trending towards warmer temps with highs into the mid 90s
and lows near 70.
&&
.MARINE (Tonight through Sunday)...
Winds are beginning to increase out over the marine area as the
gradient tightens ahead of an approaching front. Exercise caution
conditions are forecast through tonight. After that, the front will
get close enough that the gradient will weaken somewhat which will
bring winds down below headline criteria. The front is expected to
stall north of the waters tomorrow and remain in place through
Thursday before dissipating. High pressure will then build from the
Appalachians southeast to a position off the Carolina Coast over the
weekend. This will set up a period of east to southeast flow.
&&
.AVIATION (through 18Z Wednesday)...
Thunderstorms will be possible at all terminals through the
afternoon and evening hours. Initial development will be around TLH
with the other TAF sites getting in on the action a bit later on.
IFR ceilings will be possible at ABY and VLD overnight. With likely
to categorical PoPs in the forecast for Wednesday, convection will
need to be added to the terminal forecasts with the next (00Z)
package.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Red flag conditions are not expected over the next
few days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 88 72 89 70 / 50 80 60 50 30
Panama City 74 88 73 88 74 / 50 70 50 40 20
Dothan 71 90 70 92 71 / 50 50 40 30 10
Albany 71 88 69 90 69 / 70 40 40 30 10
Valdosta 70 86 69 88 69 / 70 70 50 50 40
Cross City 71 86 72 87 69 / 40 80 60 60 50
Apalachicola 74 87 73 86 73 / 50 60 60 50 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Short Term/Marine...Wool
Long Term...Block
Rest of Discussion...Camp
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1244 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2012
...Severe thunderstorm threat beginning to materialize...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
The NWS has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch through early this
evening for most of our forecast area, as it appears that scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms were beginning to develop to our
north in Central GA and AL along a cold front. We are also
concerned that isolated strong to severe storms may form in our FL
zones ahead of an approaching MCV (currently over central AL)
and/or along mesoscale boundaries like sea breeze fronts. Local
VAD wind profiles showed 0-6 km vertical wind shear magnitudes
around 35 KT, and the latest RAP SBCAPE values were a healthy
2000 J/KG in areas where CS was not dense. The 12 UTC KTAE
sounding was a bit more unstable than forecast by the NAM
yesterday, with 700-500 mb lapse rates from 6.5 to 7 deg per km.
We are doing a special Upper Air sounding to better assess the
local environemt.
Large scale forcing & mesoscale forcing, ample deep layer moisture
and potential instability, and adequate (if not spectacular) deep
layer shear will all combine for a threat of severe storms this
afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts and large hail
being the main threats. It already appears that the storms
developing to our north were exhibiting rotation and hail cores
aloft, and this should be a good proxy for what we can expect
later. Please stay tuned for the latest updates and warnings.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Fournier
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
317 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA AND RDG IN THE PLAINS.
UPR MI IS LOCATED ON THE CYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS WITHIN THE NNW
FLOW...WITH ACCOMPANYING N-S ORIENTED H85 TROF STRETCHING FM NW
ONTARIO ACRS THE WRN CWA INTO WI BTWN ACYC OVER NW MN AND ANOTHER IN
ONTARIO JUST NE OF LK SUP. SINCE THIS TROF IS ALSO UNDER AN AXIS OF
HIER MID LVL MSTR/STEEPER LAPSE RATES...THERE HAD BEEN A FEW -SHRA
INTO THIS MRNG UNDER AREA OF PERSISTENT H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC BEST
HIGHLIGHTED BY RECENT ECMWF RUNS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MORE SCT
-SHRA HAVE DVLPD OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE. MORE NMRS CU ARE ALSO PRESENT OVER
THE E WHERE A BAND OF MID CLD DRIFTED WWD INTO THAT AREA FM ONTARIO.
BUT RATHER STABLE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX RAOB SO FAR E OF UPR
JET AXIS WL LIKELY INHIBIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY SHRA THAT
MIGHT DVLP IN THIS AREA BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT ANY -SHRA THAT DVLP
THIS AFTN TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVNG AS BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HINTS UPR JET AXIS WL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE W AND RESULT IN WEAKENING
H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/INCRSG UPR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LK SUP
CLOSER TO MORE WELL DEFINED SHRTWV STRADDLING THE NW ONTARIO/MN
BORDER. WITH SFC HI PRES/LGT WINDS OVER UPR MI TNGT...EXPECT MIN
TEMPS TO FALL AT LEAST TO OR A FEW DEGREES BLO LO TEMPS THE READINGS
THIS MRNG AS PWAT IS FCST TO BE A BIT LOWER AT 6/12Z THAN THIS MRNG.
SINCE SOME FOG DID FORM THIS MRNG WHERE RA HAD FALLEN YDAY AFTN...
OPTED TO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE
THERE IS A BETTER CHC OF SOME -SHRA THIS AFTN AND CONDITIONS FOR
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT.
WED...12Z GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING TRACK OF
SHRTWV NOW IN NW ONTARIO ARPCHG NRN MN. THE NAM INDICATES THIS
DISTURBANCE/ACCOMPANYING H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC WL TRACK A BIT FARTHER
TO THE E THAN THE GFS/CNDN...WHICH SHOW FOCUS OF FORCING HOLDING
MAINLY IN NW WI/MN. GIVEN THE UPR BLOCK OVER SE CANADA AND SHRTWVS
NOTED ON WV IMAGERY SHIFTING WWD THRU QUEBEC...FEEL THE FARTHER W
GFS/CNDN ARE PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK. IN FACT...THE CNDN MODEL
HINTS SOME -SHRA MIGHT IMPACT THE FAR E ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE
DISTURBANCES NOW IN QUEBEC. SO TENDED TO RESTRICT POPS FOR
INSTABILITY AFTN -SHRA ON WED TO THE FAR W AND THE E...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE CNTRL UNDER ACYC AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
UPPER MI WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIRLY BENIGN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. WITH LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUING...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO BE PREDOMINANT IN THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DIURNAL CONVECTION DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. BEST FORCING REMAINS IN THE INTERIOR WEST OF
UPPER MI...SO IF ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DO DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING THIS IDEA AS WELL. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THESE SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY SET UP
IF THEY DO HAPPEN...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES. SUPPORT
PREVIOUS FORECASTS DECISION TO LEAVE OUT MENTION TSRA DUE TO LOW CAPE
VALUES /LESS THAN 300 J/KG/ AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES /5 TO 6 C/KM/.
LOOKING AT TOTAL TOTALS...STRONG STABLE LAYER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS
WELL AS UPPER MI WILL SUPPRESS NEEDED LIFT FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN UPPER MI
FRIDAY...AND TRAVERSING THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND
INCOMING WAA /AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/ WILL CAUSE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH
UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS FOR TIMING OF THIS PRECIP WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE GFS AND GEM BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIP WILL NOT ENTER WESTERN UPPER MI UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT QVECTOR CONV AND WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
COULD MEAN THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA.
AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AND PICK UP SLIGHTLY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON /BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
SUSTAINED/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER AIR TO PULL INTO UPPER
MI...WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 15C ON SATURDAY...AND 20+C ON
SUNDAY.
AFTER THE EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA MOVING SE/
COULD ALLOW FOR LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH
UNCERTAIN ON THE EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR PLACEMENT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCES. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY -SHRA AND EVEN A TS ARE POSSIBLE AT IWD
LATE THIS AFTN ALONG LK BREEZE BNDRY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT
WINDS TO PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD WITH WEAK
HI PRES OVER LAKE SUP. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
SOME FOG THAT COULD FORM AT IWD OVERNGT IF SOME -SHRA DO IMPACT THAT
LOCATION THIS AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
VERY QUIET MARINE PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THU NIGHT. A QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS LK SUPERIOR ON FRI...BRINGING
A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 20 KTS OVER AT LEAST THE EAST HALF. LOOK FOR
A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE TO DOMINATE ON SAT. A STRONGER S WIND UP TO 20
KTS WILL DEVELOP ON SUN UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS HI RETREATING TO THE E AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
330 PM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
A COMPLEX PERIOD IS AHEAD WHILE A NEGATIVELY-TILTED 500-HPA TROUGH
AFFECTS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS WILL BE THE
MAIN ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH.
AS OF 21 UTC...CONVECTION IS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BUOYANCY WITH ONLY
500 J/KG OR LESS OF MLCAPE PER RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THIS
IS BEING COMPENSATED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OVER 50 KT. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS STORMS RACE TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MT THROUGH THE EVENING. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGES SHOW A SOLID AREA
OF DRY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL AIR FROM BILLINGS NORTH TO NEAR HAVRE
AS OF 21 UTC...AND THAT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A DETRIMENT TO MUCH
DEVELOPMENT TOO FAR EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT. HOWEVER...ONCE WE
HEAD INTO THE EVENING...OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST COULD
CONGLOMERATE AND ENHANCE THE WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT IS ON TARGET FOR BILLINGS BEFORE 06 UTC. MOST SOUNDINGS FROM
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE AT LEAST 40 KT OF WIND WITHIN 2000
FT AGL OF THE SURFACE AT BILLINGS BY 06 UTC. IF THERE IS ANY KIND
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
THEN HIGH WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL DOWNSTREAM OF ANY STORMS. THAT MAY
REQUIRE SOME MESOSCALE-BASED FORECAST UPDATES THIS EVENING...WITH
CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING ANYTHING MORE THAN A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THAT WITHIN OUR CURRENT FORECAST PRODUCTS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT...THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF GETTING
SOME HIGH-BASED CONVECTION GIVEN INTENSE SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY
BE ABLE TO REMOVE MLCIN DESPITE 700-HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE +14 C
RANGE. SOME RUNS OF THE HRRR AND EVEN THE 12 AND 18 UTC NAM MODEL
SOLUTIONS PROVIDE EVIDENCE OF THIS CONVECTIVE RISK. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING WITH THE GRADIENT AND MIXING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF MT AS OF MID AFTERNOON...AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET OF 50 KT OR MORE WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. MODEL PROJECTIONS
OF 500 M AGL WINDS IN THE 35 KT RANGE IMPLY SURFACE WINDS MAY END
UP VERY NEAR AND LARGELY JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA...BUT THIS
WILL REQUIRE CLOSE OBSERVATIONAL MONITORING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ON WED...THE 500-HPA TROUGH WILL HEAD NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA
AND WE WILL HAVE A DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THERMAL PROFILES BETWEEN THE 12 UTC MODELS
SINCE THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT COOLER ALOFT. WE LEANED TOWARD A BIT
WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW...BUT WE DID NOT GO
AS WARM AS THE 12 UTC GFS-BASED MOS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
BY THU...A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAY GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT. THERE HAS
BEEN A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS MOISTURE
TO ARRIVE LATE WED NIGHT INTO THE DAY THU...BUT SOME QUESTIONS DO
EXIST WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR WEST IT MAY END UP. SCHULTZ/CHURCH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED.
FRIDAY WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL DAY...AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD...WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE BY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO GENERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE AND SHEAR
VALUES DO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS INDICATE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. INCREASED
SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...SO KEPT SLIGHT
POPS IN FOR EASTERN ZONES. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROPAGATE
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH MONTANA THIS
WEEKEND. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW.
TEMPS AT 700 MB DROP BELOW 0C BY LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN THE
-2C TO 0C RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 60S AND
70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
CONTINUED THE UPWARD POPS TREND SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
ROUTES INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A
ROUNDUP TO HARDIN TO SHERIDAN LINE. ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY BRIEFLY
PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ROUTES OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ON
TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
KBIL WEST. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/072 047/075 050/087 055/070 047/064 047/073 051/078
21/N 01/U 12/T 44/T 54/T 32/T 12/T
LVM 046/066 036/072 042/079 046/064 041/057 039/070 041/079
52/T 01/U 13/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 13/T
HDN 053/075 046/076 048/090 053/074 048/066 046/074 048/078
11/N 01/B 12/T 33/T 44/T 32/T 12/T
MLS 061/076 052/077 053/091 058/078 049/070 048/074 050/083
21/N 13/T 12/T 23/T 43/T 32/T 12/T
4BQ 059/076 050/076 052/090 056/079 049/069 047/073 048/080
21/N 23/T 12/T 23/T 44/T 32/T 12/T
BHK 062/079 050/073 051/085 057/079 049/068 047/071 047/078
22/T 25/T 32/T 22/T 44/T 32/T 12/T
SHR 049/072 045/074 049/086 051/075 046/067 043/070 045/074
21/U 11/B 12/T 24/T 53/T 32/T 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 28-34-39>42-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1129 AM MDT TUE JUN 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
THIS WILL BE A CHALLENGING FORECAST DAY OUT AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500-HPA TROUGH THAT IS ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE TIME IT REACHES WESTERN MT TONIGHT. THIS
SITUATION IS DRIVING SOME VERY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR INTO THE AREA...
WITH 700-HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +14 TO +15 C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 90S F ON THE PLAINS...OR AT LEAST IT WILL IF
THE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA MOVE OUT. THAT IS
THE ONLY THING KEEPING US FROM FORECASTING EVEN WARMER HIGHS. THE
12 UTC NAM AND LAST SEVERAL RAP SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT MIXING MAY
DRIVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY A LOT LOWER THAN WE
ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING AS WELL...AS DRY AIR SURGES UP INTO OUR
AREA AS A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS WEST-NORTHWEST OF BILLINGS. THE
12 UTC GFS MAINTAINS MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH 00 UTC...AND
BASED ON OBSERVATION TRENDS...THAT MAY BE MORE CORRECT. THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THOUGH BECAUSE IT HAVE IMPACT
ON MOST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS ALSO TRICKY...BUT SINCE SEVERAL MODELS ARE
STILL GENERATING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF BILLINGS DURING THE 21
TO 00 UTC TIME FRAME...WE WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE MENTION THERE. A
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST EVEN SOUTH OF LIVINGSTON...SO A
MINOR EXPANSION OF OUR EXPLICIT SEVERE MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS
BEING MADE THIS MORNING.
WE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TODAY/S FORECAST...THOUGH NOTE THAT
WE DID ISSUE FLOOD WARNINGS ON THE CLARKS FORK AND BOULDER RIVERS
THIS MORNING DUE TO MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
UPPER LOW...SEEN SPINNING JUST S OF THE ALEUTIANS ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST ON
THU. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES E TOWARD THE AREA. THE SYSTEM...OR UPPER
LOW...WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
FOLLOW THE SYSTEM ON MON AND WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL
FLOW FOR TUE.
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS OVER SE MT THU AND THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOISTURE. HAD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...ALTHOUGH THE GEM AND ECMWF
SUGGESTED POSSIBLE CAPPING IN THE SE. RAISED TEMPERATURES SOME MORE
ON FRI WITH GOOD MIXING TO BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB. SOME AREAS MAY
APPROACH 90 DEGREES. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRI
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM/S 700 MB FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. SUN LOOKED LIKE A COOLER AND LESS UNSTABLE
DAY...BUT STILL UNSETTLED...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES ON SUN WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN ZERO AND -2 DEGREES C. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
60S. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON. HAD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS THE
AIRMASS WARMS AND BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
EASTERN ROUTES INTO THIS EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO RED LODGE LINE. ANY
THUNDERSTORM MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS DIMINISHES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SWITCH TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KTS POSSIBLE FROM
KLVM TO KBIL AFTER 03Z. INTERMITTENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 054/072 047/075 050/087 055/071 048/064 047/071
2/T 21/N 01/B 12/T 33/T 33/W 32/W
LVM 086 046/066 036/073 042/079 046/066 042/057 039/066
3/T 52/W 01/B 12/T 43/T 43/W 32/W
HDN 096 053/075 046/076 048/090 053/075 049/066 046/073
1/N 11/N 01/B 12/T 22/T 33/W 22/W
MLS 098 060/077 050/077 053/091 058/078 053/070 048/071
2/T 21/N 12/T 22/T 22/T 33/W 32/W
4BQ 094 057/076 049/076 051/090 056/081 050/069 047/071
2/T 21/N 23/T 22/T 22/T 32/W 22/W
BHK 092 060/076 048/073 050/085 057/080 050/068 047/068
2/T 22/T 24/T 32/T 22/T 33/W 32/W
SHR 091 049/072 044/073 046/086 051/076 047/067 043/069
2/T 11/U 11/B 12/T 23/T 33/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1142 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES OMEGA BLOCK UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. WIND
SPEEDS COULD INCREASE A BIT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN CONUS. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINS VERY WEAK AS A RESULT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY
REMAINING TO THE WEST...NORTH...AND EAST OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...BUT
ALSO SHOWS A BROAD AXIS OF MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE SURFACE WIND ACROSS OUR CWA
REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A RESULT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH STRETCHING
DEFORMATION FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRIMARY AXIS OF DIFFLUENCE AND
RESULTANT DEFORMATION REMAINS NORTH OF NEBRASKA...SOMEWHAT
INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION...EVIDENT ON RAP ANALYSIS DATA WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION ALONG THE 310K SURFACE...AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IS
PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH OMEGA FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION TO EXTEND
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. KUEX
IS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY WITH THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS ACTIVITY JUST SOUTHWEST OF KONL AS OF 1240Z. DEEP LAYER
MUCAPE VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE VERY
LOW PER THE SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE...WITH PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
LAPS AND RAP ANALYSIS ALSO SUPPORTING THIS. THAT BEING SAID THERE
IS APPARENTLY JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR OCCASIONAL CG PRODUCTION
WITH THE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF KONL. WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
DIFFLUENCE AND RESULTANT DEFORMATION REMAINING NORTH OF OUR
AREA...AND WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM OUR AREA...THE CURRENT FEELING IS THIS CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OUR CWA...DESPITE CURRENT STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTH.
GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR THIS
MORNING WITH INCREASING CIRRUS NOTED NEAR KODX DUE TO THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE SOME CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM
ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE LOWERED THE DEW POINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT THE
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS TO THE EAST A LITTLE AS
WELL AS HAS LESS AMPLITUDE. A SURFACE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST BUT
REMAINS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE WARM AND
WITH MIXING DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN AND HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS
AGAIN. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT ONLY MOVES
SLOWLY TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH.
FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED TO THE
EAST AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z FRIDAY...SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE PRESENT TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE VERY HIGH MUCH ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY DUE
TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED POPS AND
LIMITED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF FORECAST AREA...NEAR
THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STRONGER...UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTH
WEST. THIS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BREAK
DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...STEERING A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WINDS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH WILL
ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL BUMP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN PRESENT THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TIMING BETWEEN EC/GFS
FAIRLY SIMILAR AT THIS POINT...AND MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BUT AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET
START TO THE MONTH OF JUNE...SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND FORCING ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THE COMBINATION OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHLIGHT THIS IN HWO.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM/AVIATION...ROSSI