Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/04/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
216 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012
...CORRECTION FOR A FEW TYPOS IN 1ST PARAGRAPH...
.SHORT TERM...WEAK QG ASCENT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN COLORADO AT
THIS HOUR AHEAD OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. SCATTERED T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY HAVE BEGUN TO
MOVE OUT ONTO THE NEARBY PLAINS. CAPES AND LAPSE RATES NOT ALL THAT
GREAT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AT THIS HOUR UNDER THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER.
ON THE PLAINS...ACCORDING TO THE RUC AND LAPS SFC BASED CAPES IN THE
300-600 J/KG RANGE WITHIN THE I-25 CORRIDOR UNDER INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS WHERE SKIES WERE
STILL MOSTLY SUNNY...CAPES IN THE 700-1500 J/KG RANGE.
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SCATTERED T-STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR WILL MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS WHERE THEY/LL LIKELY
MERGE INTO A NEARLY SOLID NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF STORMS. COULD SEE A
FEW STORMS EAST OF I-25 AND SOUTH OF I-76 BECOMING SEVERE EVEN WITH
SFC DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 40S. VERTICAL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT GREAT
TODAY...SO THREAT OF TORNADOES IS QUITE LOW. HOWEVER CAN/T RULE OUT
A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO/LANDSPOUT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAY EVEN
SEE ONE AS CLOSE AS D.I.A. ACARS SOUNDING AT DENVER AS OF 19Z DRY
ADIABATIC BELOW 500MB WITH A LARGE SUB-CLOUD TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD.
IT/S LOOKING FAR LESS LIKELY WE/LL SEE ANY HAIL INSIDE THE I-25
CORRIDOR WITH FREEZE LEVEL CURRENTLY UP AROUND 15 THSND FT MSL.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS WITH POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 50KTS. HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH ALSO POSSIBLE ROUGHLY
SOUTHEAST OF AN AKRON-TO-ELBERT LINE AFTER 21Z TODAY...WITH EVEN
LARGER STONES WITH MERGING STORM CELLS.
THIS STORM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF AN AKRON-TO-LIMON
LINE BY MID-LEVEL WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD SEE STEADY
DRYING AND CLEARING FROM WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAVE OF THE TROUGH.
ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE MID-LEVEL DRYING AND WARMING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. ON THE PLAINS...WEAK
NORTHERLY SFC WINDS GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTERLY ACCORDING TO
MODELS BY MIDDAY WHICH APPEARS TO GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS/ T-STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS QUITE WARM ON SUNDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS BEFORE
CLOUDS DEVELOP. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN IF ANY IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY WHERE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRIER.
.LONG TERM....LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS AND THEN HAVING THE TROUGH LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY. FOR COLORADO...THERE ARE DIFFERENCE WITH
THE DETAILS. THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
DIFFER FOR NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BROAD BRUSH OF LOW POPS FOR NEXT WEEK. WOULD
EXPECT A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE AREA.
BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL FLATTEN AS THE FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW OVER
COLORADO TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY...WHICH MAY BRING FEWER SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AT DENVER
AREA AIRPORTS NOW THROUGH 22Z...WITH THE BIGGEST RISK FROM STORMS
BEING STRONG MICROBURST WINDS AND LIGHTNING. COULD BRIEFLY SEE ILS
CEILINGS WITH PRECIPITATION WITH PASSING STORMS. SMALL HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE IN AREAS EAST OF I-25...POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER. WINDS FROM HIGH BASED T-STORMS COULD GUSTS TO 45KTS
POTENTIALLY CAUSING SERIOUS IMPACT TO AIRPORT OPERATIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE DENVER METRO AREA
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH DRIER WINDS FLOWING DOWN OFF THE
FOOTHILLS. BY LATE THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE THE NORMAL DRAINAGE
WIND PATTERN SET UP UNDER CLEARING SKIES BY 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE RISK FOR FLOODING AT THE FRONT RANGE BURN SCARS
INCLUDING THE FOURMILE BURN SCAR WEST OF BOULDER LOOKS LOW FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE
0.25 TO 0.40 OF RAIN IN UNDER 40 MINUTES WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR
HIGH WATER RUNOFF. RISK OF ANY FLOODING SHOULD COME TO AN END
AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
1018 AM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...RATHER IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF CG LTG
ALREADY OCCURRING ON THE WEST SLOPE AT THIS HOUR. DEVELOPMENT
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE INDUCED CLOUD SHIELD IS MAKING GOOD
EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ITS PRESENT SPEED WE SHOULD SEE LEADING EDGE
OF THICKER CLOUDS SPREADING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST RUC IS INDICATING SFC BASED
CAPES IN THE 150-300 J/KG RANGE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING
HIGHER REACHES OF THE FRONT RANGE MTNS AT THIS HOUR. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS...MOSUNNY SKIES AND SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY
IN THE 40S. IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
FAIRLY RAPID CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
T-STORM FORMATION BEFORE THE NOON HOUR. HRRR AND 12Z/NAM COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY FIELDS INDICATE MULTI-CELL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AT OR ABOUT 18Z TODAY. FROM THERE MODEL
DERIVED REFLECT IVITIES DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR
THROUGH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LESS THAN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRONG STORM GROWTH...I.E. CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND DEWPTS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS
WITH THIS LEADING WAVE OF STORMS MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE. ALSO
CAN NOT RULE SMALL HAIL EVEN WITH THE FREEZE LEVEL ABOVE 14000 FT
MSL. IT/S JUST EAST OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE DENVER METRO AREA/THAT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE T-STORMS APPEARS
GREATER. SUSPECT WE/LL SEE THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
URBAN CORRIDOR INTENSIFYING AS THEY PUSH IN HIGHER DEWPTS AND
BNDRY LAYER CAPES IN THE 1100-1900 J/KG SOMETIME AROUND 20-21Z.
ASSUMING IT DOESN/T CLOUD OVER TOO QUICKLY...COULD SEE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED IN A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF NON-SEVERE STORMS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. COULD SEE A COUPLE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL UP TO AN INCH OR
SO IN THE HIGHER DEWPTS ROUGHLY EAST OF DENVER AND SOUTH OF I-76.
WHERE DO NOT SEE MUCH SHEAR TODAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC. BUT
LOCALIZED SHEAR COUPLETS ALONG THE ADVANCING T-STORM GUST FRONT
COULD SPIN UP A BRIEF TORNADO/LANDSPOUT OR TWO. MAY EVEN SEE ONE
POP UP NEAR THE EAST SIDE OF THE DENVER METRO AREA. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING...THERE/S NOT MUCH
ELSE TO KEEP T-STORMS GOING...SO CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR US...BUT
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF SPC PUTS OUT A SVR T-STORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO LATER TODAY.
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS IN THE DENVER AREA AT THIS HOUR...COULD
BRIEFLY GO MVFR WITH PASSING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE
FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE DENVER METRO AREA...ESTIMATING BETWEEN
1930-2130Z THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG AND VERY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
PRODUCED BY THESE STORMS BIGGEST CONCERN FOR OPERATIONS AT DENVER
AREA AIRPORTS. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING ALSO A BIG
CONCERN. MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH STORMS ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE METRO AREA...BUT THE LARGER HAIL SHOULD FALL EAST OF THE METRO
AREA. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A BRIEF WEAK
TORNADO OR LANDSPOUT COULD FORM ALONG ONE OF THE T-STORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EAST OF I-25. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE LATE
AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
PRODUCING THIS CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THUNDERSTORMS FORMING UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
IN THE NEXT 203 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT 15-25 KTS. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE 0.30 TO 0.45 INCH OF RAIN IN
UNDER 45 MINUTES...ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITHIN THE FOURMILE BURN SCAR APPEARS LOW TODAY.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT RULE OUT MINOR RUNOFF IN BARE SURFACE AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING LIFT TO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDDAY AND THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MOISTER THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN MORE
ENERGY FOR CONVECTION. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE
IN THE MODELS...GFS IS MOISTER AND LOOKS A BIT TOO RICH WITH 50
DEW POINTS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. BUT A CONSENSUS SEEMS FINE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. THIS WILL GIVE CAPES OF 1200-2000 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS BEFORE CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS. THE TIMING IS A BIT FASTER THAN OPTIMAL...AND THE
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AFTER THE INITIAL CONVECTION GETS GOING. SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS...SO MULTICELL OR LINEAR
STRUCTURES ARE THE LIKELY MODE. STILL ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR TO SUPPORT
HAIL AND SOME WIND THREAT AS WELL. MAYBE SOME HELICITY TO WORK
WITH OUT ON THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
LOOKING LIKE TOO MUCH OF A TORNADO THREAT.
EXPECT EVERYTHING TO BE EARLIER THAN OUR NORMAL CONVECTIVE
SCHEDULE...WITH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND
CONSOLIDATING ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ONTO THE PLAINS BY MID
AFTERNOON. BETWEEN CLOUDS FROM THE EARLY CONVECTION AND THE TIME
OF DAY...THIS LEAVES A CHANCE FOR THE FRONT RANGE CITIES TO GET
SKIPPED OVER SO I WILL NOT RAISE POPS TOO MUCH...BUT WILL GO AHEAD
AND MENTION THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THAT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO
WENT WITH LOWER EVENING POPS AND GOOD CLEARING BY MORNING. TEMPS
MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH TODAY AND A BIT TOO LOW TONIGHT IF THERE IS
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED...BUT FOR NOW I LEFT THEM ALONE.
LONG TERM...MODELS STILL INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEEK OF WEATHER
AHEAD OF US AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO...BUT THEY
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEP UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
NORTHEAST OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BRING
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO. ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN THE HEIGHT FIELD...
WARM TEMPERATURES AT LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE A THERMAL TROUGH
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO PERSISTENT LOW SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. BY MONDAY THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN DRAWING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
CONTINUE MOST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. EACH DAY OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND ALLOWS GULF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ADVECTING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
BE THE WETTEST SINCE THAT MODEL HOLDS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FURTHER
WEST THAN THE GFS. THE GFS BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES HAVE ALREADY HAD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEK...SO VERY FEW
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS TIME AROUND.
AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DENVER
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT IS VARIABLE WINDS GUSTING
OVER 30 KNOTS...THOUGH HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE
STORMS. THE STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
HYDROLOGY...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF FLOODING IN THE FOURMILE
BURN AREA TODAY. IN GENERAL...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT LEAST 15
MPH WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THREAT...BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY
COULD PRODUCE AN INCH OF RAIN IN UNDER AN HOUR. THE MAIN TIME OF
THE THREAT IS EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS
MINIMAL.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER/GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...BAKER/GIMMESTAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1114 PM MDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR NEXT 24 H IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TS AT THE TAF
SITES SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
19-24Z TIME FRAME AS STORMS DEVELOP OVR THE MTS AND BEGIN MOVING
OVR THE PLAINS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE E-NE AT
AROUND 20-30 KTS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL UP TO 1
INCH DIAMETER...AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS. SVR STORMS WITH
LARGER HAIL WILL BE MORE LIKELY FROM KLHX EWD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. ROSE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM MDT FRI JUN 1 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)
..SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TOMORROW...
CURRENTLY...
A COOL FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WAS JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. WINDS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WERE ALREADY TURNING UPSLOPE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION IS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY LATER TODAY (AS SHOWN BY LATEST
HRRR)...BUT THIS CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...SIMULATIONS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON
CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR IS RATHER DRY BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT
PESSIMISTIC AS I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW TSRA DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF
THE MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHAT I HAVE DONE IS
KEPT POPS IN THE FCST...BUT HAVE DECREASED ALL OF VALUES INTO THE
ISOLATED CATEGORY.
LATER TONIGHT...
MOISTURE IS FCST TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS AS FLOW JUST
OFF THE SFC BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS IS FCST TO BRING 45-50F
DEPOTS INTO A GOOD PART OF THE PLAINS BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. SOME LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS.
TOMORROW...
A CLASSIC "DAY 2" SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IS LIKELY TOMORROW. ALL
MODELS SHOW BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IMPINGING INTO FAR SE
CO BY 21Z TOMORROW. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG BUT
SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR (AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY) ALONG WITH 8 TO
9C/KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ALL MODELS ARE
PRINTING OUT CONVECTIVE QPF AND I HAVE NO REASON NOT TO BELIEVE THIS
OUTPUT. GIVEN THIS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ROTATING CONVECTION
TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE PLAINS MAY SEE SVR WX TOMORROW...IT
APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM EADS...TO LAS ANIMAS TO KIM...AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT AND BEST CAPE WILL BE IN THIS REGION. SPC DAY2 HAS THIS
AREA OUTLOOKED. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND WIND...ALTHOUGH A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER BACA COUNTY. GIVEN THE
W-NW FLOW ALOFT...ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/SREF ALL SHOW
0-6 KM BULK SHEARS OF 35-40 KTS...SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50`S AT 00Z SUNDAY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE GFS SHOWS THE MOST INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE
VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT
FEEL A MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL THE APPROPRIATE SOLUTION IN THIS
CASE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
KANSAS BORDER WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. BOTH MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AROUND 00Z MONDAY...THE NAM SHOWS CONVECTION
FIRING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 50S AND SBCAPES OVER 1500 J/KG. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...SHOWS DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 50...HALF AS MUCH CAPE...AND NO QPF
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. I FEEL THE NAM IS OVERDONE IN THIS
CASE...BUT STILL FEEL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. POPS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS WERE RAISED IN THESE
AREAS.
MONDAY-FRIDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COLORADO BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE HIGH BASED/MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WEAK STEERING
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THEM MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FAIRLY WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
PACIFIC TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWEST. MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. THE EC DIGS THE TROUGH DEEPER
INTO UTAH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS IS FARTHER
NORTHWEST AND WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT INTO
WESTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS IF THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
-PJC
AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS AT KCOS
AND KPUB. ATTM...PLAN TO MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THESE TWO SITES
AND LET LATER AVIATION FCSTS FINE TUNE THE THUNDER THREAT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER AT KCOS AND KPUB
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THREAT TOO LOW TO EXPLICITLY MENTION IN
TAF (IF RADAR TRENDS CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TAFS FCST WILL BE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY). OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
44/31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
828 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...
FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE KTMB TERMINAL. CURRENTLY VCSH IS INCLUDED
IN THE KTMB TAF FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT. A FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EAST
COAST TERMINALS MONDAY...BUT AFT 18Z/BEYOND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 18Z...SEA BREEZES ARE BEGINNING TO SET UP ALONG THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
90 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...STILL
BELIEVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH SEVERAL
HOURS OF HEATING LEFT. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND NOW THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS SEEMS TO
AGREE. EITHER WAY...BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH HEATING LOSS.
BY MONDAY...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK
DOWN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE SWINGS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN COAST WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE STRAITS ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES WELL TO THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW COMBINED WITH
A CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL ALLOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...VFR WILL CONTINUE. OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE EAST
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ONSHORE BY 19Z AS A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. A FEW TSTORMS COULD DEVELOP, MOST
PROBABLE JUST WEST OF KTMB, SO ADDED VCTS THERE. STORM MOTION
COULD SEND A FEW STORMS TO THE SE COAST BUT GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY
DECIDED TO LEAVE VCTS OUT OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
OR CALM TONIGHT. UNCERTAIN ABOUT INITIAL WINDS MON MORNING BUT
BEST ESTIMATE IS BEGINNING SW BEFORE BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAPF TO PREVAIL SW THRU THE DAY MONDAY. A
FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST TERMINALS MONDAY...BUT AFT
18Z/BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD. /GREGORIA
MARINE...SEA BREEZES GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL TAPER OFF
AFTER SUNDOWN. WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. SEAS GENERALLY 4 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH MID WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 90 75 89 / - 20 10 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 89 78 90 / - 20 20 40
MIAMI 76 91 77 90 / - 20 20 40
NAPLES 74 90 74 88 / - 10 10 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...15/JR
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
820 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
AWAITING THE DEMISE OF THE INTERIOR CONVECTION AND THEN WILL UPDATE
ZONES TO REMOVE THE 1ST PERIOD. AT THIS TIME SEE NO CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT MARINE PACKAGE.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 18Z...SEA BREEZES ARE BEGINNING TO SET UP ALONG THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
90 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...STILL
BELIEVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH SEVERAL
HOURS OF HEATING LEFT. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND NOW THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS SEEMS TO
AGREE. EITHER WAY...BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH HEATING LOSS.
BY MONDAY...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK
DOWN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE SWINGS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN COAST WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE STRAITS ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES WELL TO THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW COMBINED WITH
A CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL ALLOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL CONTINUE. OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE EAST
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ONSHORE BY 19Z AS A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. A FEW TSTORMS COULD DEVELOP, MOST
PROBABLE JUST WEST OF KTMB, SO ADDED VCTS THERE. STORM MOTION
COULD SEND A FEW STORMS TO THE SE COAST BUT GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY
DECIDED TO LEAVE VCTS OUT OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
OR CALM TONIGHT. UNCERTAIN ABOUT INITIAL WINDS MON MORNING BUT
BEST ESTIMATE IS BEGINNING SW BEFORE BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAPF TO PREVAIL SW THRU THE DAY MONDAY. A
FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST TERMINALS MONDAY...BUT AFT
18Z/BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD. /GREGORIA
&&
.MARINE...SEA BREEZES GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL TAPER OFF
AFTER SUNDOWN. WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. SEAS GENERALLY 4 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 90 75 89 / - 20 10 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 89 78 90 / - 20 20 40
MIAMI 76 91 77 90 / - 20 20 40
NAPLES 74 90 74 88 / - 10 10 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
126 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO COLLIER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE NEAR KAPF AND PUSH
TOWARDS THE EASTERN TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...PUSHING
THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL. SO THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST
SOUTH OF KFXE. IF THERE IS ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING...A SEA BREEZE
MAY TRY AND DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...THE SURFACE WINDS MAY
ONLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION...AND
MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012/
UPDATE...SOME MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATES
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND HELPING TO LIFT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WHICH IN TURN IS AIDING IN SHIFTING THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA. IN ADDITION, THIS IS
COMING IN LINE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE NEXT HOUR
AND FOR THESE REASONS IT APPEARS THE RISK OF FLOODING RAINS HAS
BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED. THE HRRR WHICH HAS ACTUALLY BEEN OVER
ZEALOUS WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY FORECASTS THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE
DISCUSSION. SO FOR ALL OF THESE REASONS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS TO
ONLY SCT LEVELS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND CANCEL THE FFA FOR ALL
OF S FL.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012/
AVIATION...TSRA MOVG OFSHR ATTM AND VCSH THRU 02Z WITH PSBL
REDVLPMNT TOWARD 12Z WITH VCTS AFT 16Z. OTRW...VFR E COAST FOR THE
MOST PART. SFC WNDS BCMG SW GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND
PERSISTING. ATTM GUIDANCE INDICATES NO E COAST SEA BRZE SATURDAY.
AT KAPF....VCSH OVRNITE INTO SATURDAY AND PSBL MVFR CIGS BUT NOT
IN TAFS ATTM. SFC WNDS SW 10 KTS OR LESS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND THE EASTERN GULF WITH A FEW LEAD
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET LIFTING NE ACROSS THE STATE
AHEAD OF IT. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE HAS
GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AROUND AND JUST WEST
OF THE KEYS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION BECOMES CONCENTRATED. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAINFALL CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A FEW BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. IF SO, A FEW STRONG
STORMS DEVELOPING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS.
DESPITE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT WERE NOTED FROM EARLIER
MODEL SOLUTIONS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE
APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATES THE DRIER
AIR BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL INDICATE A GENERAL
DRYING PATTERN OR TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS DRY
AIR COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO CLEARING CONDITIONS COME SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST ECMWF 00Z RUN STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME AND CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A DECENT SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. CONSIDERING SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO THE
DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA...WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL CHANCES UP THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF LINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY TO NAPLES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE RAINFALL CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THIS TIME WITH THE WARMEST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND AND ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS WITH THE
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
LONG TERM (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
BY MONDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH THE WARMEST
DAYTIME TEMPS OVER EASTERN AREAS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING.
AVIATION...
AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES IN THE CWA. SO
WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
UNTIL THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA FROM THE
WEST. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH AFTER 02Z FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
TAF SITES OF THE CWA.
THE VIS AND CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE RAINS AND THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 2Z.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 74 88 75 / 60 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 76 87 77 / 70 20 10 10
MIAMI 86 76 91 77 / 60 30 20 10
NAPLES 84 73 88 74 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...14/MJB
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
822 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...LIKELY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
ENTER SOUTHWESTERN AREAS BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MOISTEN
UP WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR GEORGIA. THIS HAS RESULTED IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH LIFTED INDICES AS LOW AS -2 IN PORTIONS OF TATTNALL COUNTY
EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
STABILIZE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND HRRR BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE DYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND THIS
IDEA WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH THIS UPDATE WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
THE HRRR COMPARED TO THE GFS SEEM MUCH MORE REASONABLE.
FOR TEMPS...RAISED MINS QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS A RESULT OF GREATER CLOUD COVER AND DEW
POINTS INCREASING QUICKER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A WELL DEFINED 500 MB
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION IN THE WNW
FLOW AROUND THE LARGE CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...IMPROVING DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE SUITE OF LARGER-SCALE AND
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IS THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. THIS MCS IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE
TOWARDS THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WNW-ESE LARGE SCALE
FLOW. SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO LARGELY
BE DETERMINED BY THE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE MCS WILL BE MOVING INTO.
SPECIFICALLY...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT WITH
A BELT OF 50 KT 500-700 MB FLOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT 0-3 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-45 KTS. PERHAPS THE
MOST QUESTIONABLE PARAMETER WILL BE INSTABILITY. MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM MCS
WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING TO SOME DEGREE. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...I
ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS CONFINED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
REGARDLESS...MODEL SOLUTIONS GIVE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG OUT
AHEAD OF THE MCS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE THE
SEVERE MENTION IN THE HWO. POPS HAVE BEEN CONSTRUCTED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING INTO PARTS OF SE GA IN THE MID/LATE MORNING
HOURS...THEN EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. I HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR AREAS ACROSS SE GA AND A LINE OF
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THE FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE EAST I HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE
CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE...FAVORING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY
AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IN THE WNW FLOW. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE GA AREA AND WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DURING THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPS HAVE BEEN KEPT BELOW THE LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPS LIKELY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
KSAV AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE
FORECAST. DID MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY BEFORE MIXING COMMENCES AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
AFTER ABOUT 15Z MONDAY THE FORECAST GETS COMPLICATED WITH LOWER
THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS A DECENT THREAT FOR
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FOR A TIME. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING IS
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND LATTER FORECASTS WILL PROVIDE MORE
DETAIL ON THE TIMING AND THE IMPACTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. SMALL CHANCE OF PERIODIC SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER/NEAR THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUITE A BIT LATE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. SEAS WILL INCREASE
AS WELL...BUT I EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
CORRESPONDING SURGE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM...AND AS A RESULT
A PERIOD OF SCA/S MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...A RATHER
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE LINGERING FRONT SO NO MAJOR MARINE CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EXPANDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INTO COASTAL GEORGIA FOR THIS
UPDATE. HIGH TIDE EXPECTED TO REACH 7.2 TO 7.4 MLLW IN CHARLESTON
AND 9.1 TO 9.3 MLLW AT FORT PULASKI AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
SHORTLY AFTER 8 PM...WITH THE THREAT ABOUT AN HOUR LATER IN
BEAUFORT. THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...JUST A LITTLE SALT WATER INTRUSION IN THE USUAL SUSPECT
PLACES.
THROUGH MID WEEK...PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES COULD PRODUCE MINOR SALT
WATER FLOODING DURING EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 730 PM AND 930 PM ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ALSHEIMER/MTE
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...ALSHEIMER/BSH/MTE
MARINE...ALSHEIMER/BSH/RJB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
716 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
...UPDATED FOR TORNADO WATCH AND ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS EVENING...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BASED
ON LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. RAP AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL PLACES
PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST-SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN AN AREA WHERE
SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG, AND 0-6KM SHEAR
RANGED 30-40KTS. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER. BASED ON 0-6KM SHEAR AND GOOD INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH NEAR THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES IT STILL APPEARS THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL
FLOW NEAR THE DRY LINE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BRIEFLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE
CONVECTION APPEARS MOST LIKELY AND LOWERED/REMOVED PRECIPITATION
FURTHER NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
ALTHOUGH A MEAN RIDGING PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND ROCKIES REGIONS, A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL 700 MB
TROUGH IS STILL IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KANSAS, SLOWLY MAKING A
TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN THE WIND FIELD AND THE MODELS TEND TO
FAVOR THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
DRIVES THE CAPE UP INTO THE 3500 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SB CAPE VALUES MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVEN`T BEEN WARMING AS FAST AS FORECAST GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE AREA. ALSO, THE WRF/NMM RUNS AND THE HRRR ARE ONCE AGAIN
OFFERING VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
LATER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION, DRIVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
GIVEN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT, HIGH CAPE - STRONG MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY, AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY, VERY LARGE HAIL
WOULD SEEM TO BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THERE
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENTIAL IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MEAN WINDS, AND AT THIS POINT WE`LL MAINTAIN MAX HAIL SIZE AT
GOLF BALLS. LOCAL SEVERE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS ZONE, AND HEAVY WATER
LOADED STORMS SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE.
GIVEN THAT THE WRF/NMM WAS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
IT IS POSSIBLE THE LIFT MIGHT NOT BE SUFFICIENT AND IS NOT
OVERTAKING THE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AT AROUND 11 DEGREES
C. THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE ONLY MODE OF FAILURE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
AFTER ANY POTENTIAL STORMS EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT, A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTH EAST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES
BEHIND A DRYLINE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE PANHANDLES. NAM HAS
MODELED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE RECENT FORECASTS,
LIKELY OWING TO INCREASED RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER FROM
CONVECTION AS WELL AS SPILLING INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM CENTRAL
ROCKIES ORTHOGRAPHIC LIFT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AREA BY TUESDAY. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR COLORADO AND
OKLAHOMA BORDER AREAS BY 12Z TUESDAY AND PUSH A LITTLE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR A GARDEN CITY TO ASHLAND LINE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
WILL BE HOT TO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S IN
MOST LOCALS. THIS SURFACE HEATING COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW
STORMS NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IS ONLY WORTHY OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL WAVE COMES EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOW DOWN HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY, AND AS THAT FRONT RETREATS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT, THE
UPPER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE COULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN A FEW STORMS IF THEY GET GOING. THEREFORE, 30 POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER OUR WESTERN 2/3RD OF THE CWA, BASICALLY
WEST OF A WAKEENEY TO MEADE LINE. SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM, BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS 4 DAYS OUR. WILL ONLY
GO WITH 20 POPS EAST OF THAT WAKEENEY TO MEADE LINE. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE PLAYING WITH AN AFTERNOON DRY LINE MARCHING EAST
DURING THE DAY AND THEN RETREATING TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING
AND EARLY NIGHT PERIOD. CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL IN
OUR EAST NEAR WHERE THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE, EAST OF
COLDWATER TO HAYS LINE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
EXAMINED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO 20
PERCENT ON THURSDAY NIGHT, AS FORCING WILL BE MUCH LESS. FRIDAY
STILL WILL SEE A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTH AND A DRY LINE COME INTO
PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO SMALL POPS ARE IN FRO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT. A LARGE, WARM UPPER
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DO A BIT OF A YO-YOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL START TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S, DIP TO THE
THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BE ABOUT THE SAME ON
THURSDAY IN THE MID 80S, THEN START ON A WARMING TREND FRIDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WARM TO THE LOWER
90S SATURDAY AND WOULD RISE EVEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN START TO INCREASE INTO THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY AS THE WARM UPPER HIGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST
STARTS BUILDING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
BASED ON LOCATION OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AND WHERE BETTER 0-6KM
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WAS LOCATED AS OF 22Z IT STILL APPEARS THAT
DDC WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH A CHANCE OF EVENING CONVECTION.
WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. TIMING OF WHEN
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS NAM APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH
CURRENT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITION. HRRR WAS CLOSER SO WILL FOLLOW
THE HRRR FOR WIND SHIFT LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 93 64 90 / 20 10 10 10
GCK 65 93 64 90 / 10 10 20 20
EHA 65 90 63 86 / 20 30 30 30
LBL 65 92 64 88 / 30 20 20 20
HYS 69 91 64 90 / 20 10 10 10
P28 70 92 67 89 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
715 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
...UPDATED FOR TORNADO WARNING AND ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
EVENING...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BASED
ON LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. RAP AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL PLACES
PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST-SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN AN AREA WHERE
SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG, AND 0-6KM SHEAR
RANGED 30-40KTS. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER. BASED ON 0-6KM SHEAR AND GOOD INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH NEAR THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES IT STILL APPEARS THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL
FLOW NEAR THE DRY LINE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BRIEFLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE
CONVECTION APPEARS MOST LIKELY AND LOWERED/REMOVED PRECIPITATION
FURTHER NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
ALTHOUGH A MEAN RIDGING PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND ROCKIES REGIONS, A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL 700 MB
TROUGH IS STILL IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KANSAS, SLOWLY MAKING A
TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN THE WIND FIELD AND THE MODELS TEND TO
FAVOR THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
DRIVES THE CAPE UP INTO THE 3500 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SB CAPE VALUES MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVEN`T BEEN WARMING AS FAST AS FORECAST GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE AREA. ALSO, THE WRF/NMM RUNS AND THE HRRR ARE ONCE AGAIN
OFFERING VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
LATER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION, DRIVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
GIVEN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT, HIGH CAPE - STRONG MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY, AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY, VERY LARGE HAIL
WOULD SEEM TO BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THERE
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENTIAL IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MEAN WINDS, AND AT THIS POINT WE`LL MAINTAIN MAX HAIL SIZE AT
GOLF BALLS. LOCAL SEVERE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS ZONE, AND HEAVY WATER
LOADED STORMS SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE.
GIVEN THAT THE WRF/NMM WAS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
IT IS POSSIBLE THE LIFT MIGHT NOT BE SUFFICIENT AND IS NOT
OVERTAKING THE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AT AROUND 11 DEGREES
C. THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE ONLY MODE OF FAILURE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
AFTER ANY POTENTIAL STORMS EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT, A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTH EAST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES
BEHIND A DRYLINE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE PANHANDLES. NAM HAS
MODELED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE RECENT FORECASTS,
LIKELY OWING TO INCREASED RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER FROM
CONVECTION AS WELL AS SPILLING INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM CENTRAL
ROCKIES ORTHOGRAPHIC LIFT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AREA BY TUESDAY. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR COLORADO AND
OKLAHOMA BORDER AREAS BY 12Z TUESDAY AND PUSH A LITTLE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR A GARDEN CITY TO ASHLAND LINE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
WILL BE HOT TO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S IN
MOST LOCALS. THIS SURFACE HEATING COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW
STORMS NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IS ONLY WORTHY OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL WAVE COMES EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOW DOWN HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY, AND AS THAT FRONT RETREATS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT, THE
UPPER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE COULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN A FEW STORMS IF THEY GET GOING. THEREFORE, 30 POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER OUR WESTERN 2/3RD OF THE CWA, BASICALLY
WEST OF A WAKEENEY TO MEADE LINE. SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM, BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS 4 DAYS OUR. WILL ONLY
GO WITH 20 POPS EAST OF THAT WAKEENEY TO MEADE LINE. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE PLAYING WITH AN AFTERNOON DRY LINE MARCHING EAST
DURING THE DAY AND THEN RETREATING TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING
AND EARLY NIGHT PERIOD. CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL IN
OUR EAST NEAR WHERE THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE, EAST OF
COLDWATER TO HAYS LINE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
EXAMINED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO 20
PERCENT ON THURSDAY NIGHT, AS FORCING WILL BE MUCH LESS. FRIDAY
STILL WILL SEE A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTH AND A DRY LINE COME INTO
PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO SMALL POPS ARE IN FRO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT. A LARGE, WARM UPPER
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DO A BIT OF A YO-YOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL START TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S, DIP TO THE
THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BE ABOUT THE SAME ON
THURSDAY IN THE MID 80S, THEN START ON A WARMING TREND FRIDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WARM TO THE LOWER
90S SATURDAY AND WOULD RISE EVEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN START TO INCREASE INTO THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY AS THE WARM UPPER HIGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST
STARTS BUILDING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
BASED ON LOCATION OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AND WHERE BETTER 0-6KM
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WAS LOCATED AS OF 22Z IT STILL APPEARS THAT
DDC WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH A CHANCE OF EVENING CONVECTION.
WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. TIMING OF WHEN
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS NAM APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH
CURRENT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITION. HRRR WAS CLOSER SO WILL FOLLOW
THE HRRR FOR WIND SHIFT LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 93 64 90 / 20 10 10 10
GCK 65 93 64 90 / 10 10 20 20
EHA 65 90 63 86 / 20 30 30 30
LBL 65 92 64 88 / 30 20 20 20
HYS 69 91 64 90 / 20 10 10 10
P28 70 92 67 89 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
ALTHOUGH A MEAN RIDGING PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND ROCKIES REGIONS, A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL 700 MB
TROUGH IS STILL IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KANSAS, SLOWLY MAKING A
TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN THE WIND FIELD AND THE MODELS TEND TO
FAVOR THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
DRIVES THE CAPE UP INTO THE 3500 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SB CAPE VALUES MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVEN`T BEEN WARMING AS FAST AS FORECAST GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE AREA. ALSO, THE WRF/NMM RUNS AND THE HRRR ARE ONCE AGAIN
OFFERING VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
LATER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION, DRIVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
GIVEN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT, HIGH CAPE - STRONG MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY, AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY, VERY LARGE HAIL
WOULD SEEM TO BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THERE
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENTIAL IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MEAN WINDS, AND AT THIS POINT WE`LL MAINTAIN MAX HAIL SIZE AT
GOLF BALLS. LOCAL SEVERE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS ZONE, AND HEAVY WATER
LOADED STORMS SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE.
GIVEN THAT THE WRF/NMM WAS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
IT IS POSSIBLE THE LIFT MIGHT NOT BE SUFFICIENT AND IS NOT
OVERTAKING THE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AT AROUND 11 DEGREES
C. THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE ONLY MODE OF FAILURE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
AFTER ANY POTENTIAL STORMS EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT, A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTH EAST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES
BEHIND A DRYLINE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE PANHANDLES. NAM HAS
MODELED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE RECENT FORECASTS,
LIKELY OWING TO INCREASED RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER FROM
CONVECTION AS WELL AS SPILLING INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM CENTRAL
ROCKIES ORTHOGRAPHIC LIFT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AREA BY TUESDAY. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR COLORADO AND
OKLAHOMA BORDER AREAS BY 12Z TUESDAY AND PUSH A LITTLE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR A GARDEN CITY TO ASHLAND LINE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
WILL BE HOT TO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S IN
MOST LOCALS. THIS SURFACE HEATING COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW
STORMS NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IS ONLY WORTHY OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL WAVE COMES EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOW DOWN HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY, AND AS THAT FRONT RETREATS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT, THE
UPPER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE COULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN A FEW STORMS IF THEY GET GOING. THEREFORE, 30 POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER OUR WESTERN 2/3RD OF THE CWA, BASICALLY
WEST OF A WAKEENEY TO MEADE LINE. SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM, BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS 4 DAYS OUR. WILL ONLY
GO WITH 20 POPS EAST OF THAT WAKEENEY TO MEADE LINE. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE PLAYING WITH AN AFTERNOON DRY LINE MARCHING EAST
DURING THE DAY AND THEN RETREATING TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING
AND EARLY NIGHT PERIOD. CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL IN
OUR EAST NEAR WHERE THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE, EAST OF
COLDWATER TO HAYS LINE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
EXAMINED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO 20
PERCENT ON THURSDAY NIGHT, AS FORCING WILL BE MUCH LESS. FRIDAY
STILL WILL SEE A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTH AND A DRY LINE COME INTO
PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO SMALL POPS ARE IN FRO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT. A LARGE, WARM UPPER
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DO A BIT OF A YO-YOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL START TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S, DIP TO THE
THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BE ABOUT THE SAME ON
THURSDAY IN THE MID 80S, THEN START ON A WARMING TREND FRIDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WARM TO THE LOWER
90S SATURDAY AND WOULD RISE EVEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN START TO INCREASE INTO THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY AS THE WARM UPPER HIGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST
STARTS BUILDING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
BASED ON LOCATION OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AND WHERE BETTER 0-6KM
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WAS LOCATED AS OF 22Z IT STILL APPEARS THAT
DDC WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH A CHANCE OF EVENING CONVECTION.
WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. TIMING OF WHEN
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS NAM APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH
CURRENT SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITION. HRRR WAS CLOSER SO WILL FOLLOW
THE HRRR FOR WIND SHIFT LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 93 64 90 / 50 10 10 10
GCK 65 93 64 90 / 20 10 20 20
EHA 65 90 63 86 / 20 30 30 30
LBL 65 92 64 88 / 30 20 20 20
HYS 69 91 64 90 / 20 10 10 10
P28 70 92 67 89 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS ARE MODELED BY THE VARIOUS MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODELS TO
CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO SEPARATE MULTICELL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON THE EVENING. THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND HIGH CAPE IS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES. THE TOTAL
CAPES DROPS DRAMATICALLY HEADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER TERRAIN,
HOWEVER, VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD STILL SUPPORT PROLIFIC THUNDERSTORMS GUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH THE EVENING FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT
BECOME SUSTAINED INTO THE AREA. THE HRRR MODEL BASICALLY DEVELOPED 2
CLUSTERS, ALLOWING THE MAIN WIND THREAT TO BE SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE VARIOUS WRF RUNS PRODUCE
MORE OF A SINGLE LARGER CLUSTER CENTERING TOWARD HAMILTON AND
STANTON COUNTIES BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV
ANOMALY MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING. THE
LOCALIZED MESOSCALE LIFT FROM SUCH A FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
IN A MUCH WEAKENED MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ENVIRONMENT. WITH THIS
IMPULSE MOVING THOUGH THE AREA, A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 12Z IN THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, IT SHOULD BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHERN CWA, WITH A MUCH LESS CHANCE
IN THE EAST DUE TO COLD AIR SINKING IN. AN UPPER WAVE THEN DIVES
SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AS
THAT FRONT MEANDERS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS UPPER WAVE
COULD BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS
WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE AREA EAST OF WAKEENEY TO ASHLAND WILL LIKELY HAVE THE
HIGHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND THAT AREA IS WHERE SEVERE STORMS
SEEM THE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE EVEN MORE EASTWARD, EAST OF A HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE LINE. SATURDAY, MOST OF THE UPPER MOMENTUM WILL HAVE
MOVED SOUTH AND EAST, SO POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES, MAINLY IN THE SAINT JOHN TO PRATT
AREAS.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL START WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S, COOL TO THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY, AND DROP AS LOW AS THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S BY FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AS A
DOWN SLOPE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWNWARD. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR TEMPORAL GUIDANCE WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AS THIS MODEL SEEMS TO BE DOING FAIRLY
WELL IN COMPARING TO ACTUAL WSR-88D TRENDS. THINK THE BIGGEST CONCERN
FOR TAFS IS OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. OTHERWISE,
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 93 67 91 / 80 10 10 10
GCK 61 94 66 91 / 80 10 10 10
EHA 60 96 65 90 / 80 20 20 20
LBL 64 96 67 92 / 80 10 20 20
HYS 65 92 67 91 / 50 20 20 10
P28 65 93 69 91 / 40 20 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
349 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS ARE MODELED BY THE VARIOUS MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODELS TO
CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO SEPARATE MULTICELL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON THE EVENING. THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND HIGH CAPE IS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES. THE TOTAL
CAPES DROPS DRAMATICALLY HEADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER TERRAIN,
HOWEVER, VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD STILL SUPPORT PROLIFIC THUNDERSTORMS GUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH THE EVENING FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT
BECOME SUSTAINED INTO THE AREA. THE HRRR MODEL BASICALLY DEVELOPED 2
CLUSTERS, ALLOWING THE MAIN WIND THREAT TO BE SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE VARIOUS WRF RUNS PRODUCE
MORE OF A SINGLE LARGER CLUSTER CENTERING TOWARD HAMILTON AND
STANTON COUNTIES BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV
ANOMALY MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING. THE
LOCALIZED MESOSCALE LIFT FROM SUCH A FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
IN A MUCH WEAKENED MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ENVIRONMENT. WITH THIS
IMPULSE MOVING THOUGH THE AREA, A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 12Z IN THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, IT SHOULD BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHERN CWA, WITH A MUCH LESS CHANCE
IN THE EAST DUE TO COLD AIR SINKING IN. AN UPPER WAVE THEN DIVES
SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AS
THAT FRONT MEANDERS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS UPPER WAVE
COULD BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS
WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE AREA EAST OF WAKEENEY TO ASHLAND WILL LIKELY HAVE THE
HIGHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND THAT AREA IS WHERE SEVERE STORMS
SEEM THE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE EVEN MORE EASTWARD, EAST OF A HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE LINE. SATURDAY, MOST OF THE UPPER MOMENTUM WILL HAVE
MOVED SOUTH AND EAST, SO POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES, MAINLY IN THE SAINT JOHN TO PRATT
AREAS.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL START WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S, COOL TO THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY, AND DROP AS LOW AS THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S BY FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AS A
DOWN SLOPE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWNWARD. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
A MULTICELL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE VARIOUS
MESOSCALE MODELS CONSENSUS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD GUST FRONT SPREADING RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING, PERHAPS WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AT KDDC.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE THE GUST FRONT LOSING MOMENTUM
AND PRODUCING SUB SEVERE WIND SPEEDS BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
TERMINALS. THE RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
SUGGESTS CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3000 FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 93 67 91 / 80 10 10 10
GCK 61 94 66 91 / 80 20 10 10
EHA 60 96 65 90 / 80 20 20 20
LBL 64 96 67 92 / 80 10 20 20
HYS 65 92 67 91 / 50 20 20 10
P28 65 93 69 91 / 40 20 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR HAMILTON STANTON AND
MORTON COUNTIES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
222 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
THE FORECAST NOW INCLUDES A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 03 UTC
FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
ON TRACK TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SCHULTZ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND OR HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING REMAINS
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM. WE ALLOWED CONTINUITY TO RULE MUCH OF
THE SUN AND MON FORECAST...ESPECIALLY SINCE UNCERTAINTY GROWS WITH
REGARD TO STORM CHANCES ON MON.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SCATTERED STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION WITHIN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST EVERYWHERE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40
KT...MLCAPE OF 500 T0 1000 J/KG WITH STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8 DEG C/KM...AND INVERTED V-SOUNDING PROFILES. WIND WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE TOO. SOME
INITIAL CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MT AS OF 19 UTC
AND THAT ACTIVITY COULD STRENGTHEN...OR JUST BECOME MORE EFFECTIVE
AT PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...AS IT MOVES INTO THE DESTABILIZING AIR
MASS FROM SHERIDAN WY UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT. MEANWHILE...WE HAVE
HAD A SOLID AREA OF CLEARING BEHIND THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL CONVECTION...SO NEAR-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS LOOK ON TRACK IN
SHOWING MLCAPE INCREASING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS CLOSE
TO DILLON MT AT 19 UTC WILL BE TRACKING INTO THIS AIR MASS...AND A
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THAT ACTIVITY INTO LIVINGSTON AROUND 21
UTC AND BILLINGS NEAR 23 UTC. THAT LINES UP WELL WITH COLD FRONTAL
TIMING SHOWN BY MOST MODELS...INCLUDING THE 18 UTC RAP AND 15 UTC
HRRR...WITH PASSAGE AT BILLINGS ADVERTISED AROUND 00 UTC. LOOK FOR
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO SETTLE DOWN BY ABOUT 03 UTC...WITH A QUIET
PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUN...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE FROM EASTERN MT AND
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BENEATH A NEBULOUS WEST-SOUTHWEST 500-HPA
FLOW. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE COULD SUPPORT
SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IN AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN. WE
CHOSE TO KEEP EVEN LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION OUT OF BILLINGS UNTIL
AFTER 00 UTC THOUGH BECAUSE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL MLCAPE
AND MODEST CAPPING OVER THAT AREA DURING THE DAY. WE ARE SHOWING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE PLAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT ON SUN
NIGHT...BUT ONLY A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET IS SHOWN BY THE LAST SEVERAL
MODEL SIMULATIONS. THUS...THE CONVECTION MAY END UP BEING REMNANTS
OF THE STUFF THAT COMES OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN...RATHER THAN ANY NEW
DEVELOPMENT. THAT MAY RESULT IN MINIMAL COVERAGE AFTER 06 UTC.
MON...LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS PRESSURE
FALLS COMMENCE OVER THE REGION. THE 12 UTC NAM /AND MOST PAST RUNS
OF THAT MODEL/ SIMULATES DEEP CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON THE PLAINS BETWEEN ABOUT BILLINGS AND MILES CITY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS ON THOSE SOUTHEAST WINDS. THAT SCENARIO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SINCE THE AREA COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL CAP...WITH 700-HPA TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 12 C. WE ARE
NOT SURE THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE FORCING TO DEVELOP STORMS OUT
ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP THOUGH...WITH THE 12 UTC GFS KEEPING HEIGHT
FALLS OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE AT 500 HPA TO THE WEST OF BILLINGS. THAT
LINES UP WITH THE CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES OFF OF THE
09 UTC SREF...WHICH ARE 40 PERCENT AT LIVINGSTON AND 10 PERCENT AT
MILES CITY ON MON. THUS...WE KEPT THE MON AFTERNOON PERIOD DRY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MT...AND THEN ADVERTISED LOW POPS EVERYWHERE COME MON
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE RISK IF STORMS FORM. NOTE IT IS
GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT HOT ON MON TOO...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 F OVER
MOST OF THE PLAINS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REVS UP. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
12Z MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS REMAINED IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
STILL DEPICTING SOME MINOR DIFFERENCE BUT OVERALL ARE REMAINING
FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES ON
TUESDAY WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL
ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THERMAL RIDGE TO AMPLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM DAY TO THE THE
REGION WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DEVELOP AND ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IN BRINGING IN
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EVEN WITH VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT...SOME ENERGY WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH MODELS BRING IN DRY AIR
ALOFT. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE WITH HEATING
AND LIFT FROM UPPER ENERGY. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THIS MODEL RUN WILL PUT IT OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCE OF POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL SET UP. THIS WILL BRING NEAR SEASON TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL PUSH INTO THE KLVM
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55KTS AND 1 INCH HAIL. THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN LOWERING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/080 057/090 062/093 056/073 048/070 050/073 051/080
51/B 22/T 32/T 32/T 22/T 22/W 23/W
LVM 046/080 049/088 053/087 046/064 039/067 041/073 043/075
53/T 33/T 33/T 43/T 22/T 22/W 23/W
HDN 057/081 055/092 061/095 056/077 048/073 050/076 050/081
51/B 21/B 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/W 22/W
MLS 057/080 059/091 065/093 061/082 052/073 054/076 053/084
51/B 11/B 22/T 33/T 33/T 32/W 23/W
4BQ 058/079 056/090 063/091 059/082 051/072 052/076 051/083
51/B 11/B 22/T 23/T 33/T 32/W 22/W
BHK 057/077 057/086 060/087 057/080 051/071 053/075 050/081
51/B 11/B 22/T 34/T 43/T 42/W 22/W
SHR 050/081 054/087 060/091 055/074 046/068 047/072 048/078
51/B 21/B 21/B 22/T 22/T 22/W 23/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
125 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND OR HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING REMAINS
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM. WE ALLOWED CONTINUITY TO RULE MUCH OF
THE SUN AND MON FORECAST...ESPECIALLY SINCE UNCERTAINTY GROWS WITH
REGARD TO STORM CHANCES ON MON.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SCATTERED STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION WITHIN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST EVERYWHERE GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40
KT...MLCAPE OF 500 T0 1000 J/KG WITH STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8 DEG C/KM...AND INVERTED V-SOUNDING PROFILES. WIND WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE TOO. SOME
INITIAL CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MT AS OF 19 UTC
AND THAT ACTIVITY COULD STRENGTHEN...OR JUST BECOME MORE EFFECTIVE
AT PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...AS IT MOVES INTO THE DESTABILIZING AIR
MASS FROM SHERIDAN WY UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT. MEANWHILE...WE HAVE
HAD A SOLID AREA OF CLEARING BEHIND THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL CONVECTION...SO NEAR-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS LOOK ON TRACK IN
SHOWING MLCAPE INCREASING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS CLOSE
TO DILLON MT AT 19 UTC WILL BE TRACKING INTO THIS AIR MASS...AND A
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THAT ACTIVITY INTO LIVINGSTON AROUND 21
UTC AND BILLINGS NEAR 23 UTC. THAT LINES UP WELL WITH COLD FRONTAL
TIMING SHOWN BY MOST MODELS...INCLUDING THE 18 UTC RAP AND 16 UTC
HRRR...WITH PASSAGE AT BILLINGS ADVERTISED AROUND 00 UTC. LOOK FOR
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO SETTLE DOWN BY ABOUT 03 UTC...WITH A QUIET
PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUN...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE FROM EASTERN MT AND
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BENEATH A NEBULOUS WEST-SOUTHWEST 500-HPA
FLOW. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE COULD SUPPORT
SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IN AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN. WE
CHOSE TO KEEP EVEN LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION OUT OF BILLINGS UNTIL
AFTER 00 UTC THOUGH BECAUSE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL MLCAPE
AND MODEST CAPPING OVER THAT AREA DURING THE DAY. WE ARE SHOWING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE PLAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT ON SUN
NIGHT...BUT ONLY A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET IS SHOWN BY THE LAST SEVERAL
MODEL SIMULATIONS. THUS...THE CONVECTION MAY END UP BEING REMNANTS
OF THE STUFF THAT COMES OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN...RATHER THAN ANY NEW
DEVELOPMENT. THAT MAY RESULT IN MINIMAL COVERAGE AFTER 06 UTC.
MON...LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS PRESSURE
FALLS COMMENCE OVER THE REGION. THE 12 UTC NAM /AND MOST PAST RUNS
OF THAT MODEL/ SIMULATES DEEP CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON THE PLAINS BETWEEN ABOUT BILLINGS AND MILES CITY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS ON THOSE SOUTHEAST WINDS. THAT SCENARIO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SINCE THE AREA COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL CAP...WITH 700-HPA TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 12 C. WE ARE
NOT SURE THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE FORCING TO DEVELOP STORMS OUT
ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP THOUGH...WITH THE 12 UTC GFS KEEPING HEIGHT
FALLS OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE AT 500 HPA TO THE WEST OF BILLINGS. THAT
LINES UP WITH THE CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES OFF OF THE
09 UTC SREF...WHICH ARE 40 PERCENT AT LIVINGSTON AND 10 PERCENT AT
MILES CITY ON MON. THUS...WE KEPT THE MON AFTERNOON PERIOD DRY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MT...AND THEN ADVERTISED LOW POPS EVERYWHERE COME MON
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE RISK IF STORMS FORM. NOTE IT IS
GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT HOT ON MON TOO...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 F OVER
MOST OF THE PLAINS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REVS UP. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
12Z MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS REMAINED IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
STILL DEPICTING SOME MINOR DIFFERENCE BUT OVERALL ARE REMAINING
FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES ON
TUESDAY WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL
ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THERMAL RIDGE TO AMPLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM DAY TO THE THE
REGION WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DEVELOP AND ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IN BRINGING IN
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EVEN WITH VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT...SOME ENERGY WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH MODELS BRING IN DRY AIR
ALOFT. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE WITH HEATING
AND LIFT FROM UPPER ENERGY. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THIS MODEL RUN WILL PUT IT OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCE OF POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL SET UP. THIS WILL BRING NEAR SEASON TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL PUSH INTO THE KLVM
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55KTS AND 1 INCH HAIL. THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN LOWERING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/080 057/090 062/093 056/073 048/070 050/073 051/080
51/B 22/T 32/T 32/T 22/T 22/W 23/W
LVM 046/080 049/088 053/087 046/064 039/067 041/073 043/075
53/T 33/T 33/T 43/T 22/T 22/W 23/W
HDN 057/081 055/092 061/095 056/077 048/073 050/076 050/081
51/B 21/B 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/W 22/W
MLS 057/080 059/091 065/093 061/082 052/073 054/076 053/084
51/B 11/B 22/T 33/T 33/T 32/W 23/W
4BQ 058/079 056/090 063/091 059/082 051/072 052/076 051/083
51/B 11/B 22/T 23/T 33/T 32/W 22/W
BHK 057/077 057/086 060/087 057/080 051/071 053/075 050/081
51/B 11/B 22/T 34/T 43/T 42/W 22/W
SHR 050/081 054/087 060/091 055/074 046/068 047/072 048/078
51/B 21/B 21/B 22/T 22/T 22/W 23/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
927 AM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MORNING UPDATE...
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. HOWEVER... AN INITIAL BURST OF STRONG WINDS WITH
PASSING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE DRY SURFACE
LAYER MOISTENS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIATION LOOKS
TO BE AROUND 2 PM FOR CELLS OVER PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTY AND
REACHING GLASGOW AND JORDAN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. AREAS SUCH AS THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND MEDICINE LAKE ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO
EXPERIENCE THUNDER UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 6PM AS THE REMAINDERS OF
A LINE MOVES THROUGH. UPDATED AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND BLENDED GRIDS TOWARDS HRRR AND HIRES ARM MESOSCALE
MODELS IN WIND FIELDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDER ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL EJECT A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE
AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND SHOULD PACK A
PUNCH WITH DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS
THEY FORM INTO A LINE. CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND VERTICAL
VELOCITIES OF BETWEEN 31 AND 60 M/S SHOW UPDRAFTS COULD BRIEFLY
SUPPORT COULD BE SOME HAIL WITH THESE STORMS BUT STILL THINK THE
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG WINDS. LCL WILL LOWER IN THE
RAIN COOLED AIR AND THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL DIE OFF.
PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVEL ON FORECAST SOUNDING ARE OVER AN INCH SO
MINOR FLOODING AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED. BUT THE
FACT THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AND
WON`T BE TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA MEANS FLASH FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND EXPECT COOLER HIGHS ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP
INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN. MONDAY AFTERNOON A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. EVERYONE ELSE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. RSMITH
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WHICH SLOWLY
IS FORCED EAST BY THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT BASIN.
THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ALL LEVELS WHICH MAKES IT A
VERY INTERESTING SYSTEM.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT PERIODS OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. NO GOOD EVENTS TIMED OUT OTHER THAN NEXT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP WITH THE
CLIMO OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEST CHANCES... LESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. PROTON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WITH HEAVY RAIN
FROM 21Z-03Z MAINLY STARTING EARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
PROPAGATING NORTHEAST. PROTON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
920 AM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST IN ORDER TO CARRY SOME
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE THIS MORNING. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WAS ALSO ADDED FURTHER EAST INTO THE MILES
CITY AND BROADUS AREAS BEFORE 00 UTC. THE MAIN FORECAST THEME THAT
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR A FEW DAYS REMAINS IN TACT...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EARLIER-THAN-EXPECTED CONVECTION MAY BE
THROWING SOME WRINKLES INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS.
AS OF MID MORNING...CONVECTION IS ALREADY MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MT...WITH EXTRAPOLATION TAKING IT INTO THE LIVINGSTON AREA BETWEEN
16 AND 18 UTC. THIS APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PERTURBATION IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MORE DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE THAT
WE HAVE BEEN COUNTING ON FOR STORMS LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...MOST OF
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION...CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON THE
EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY AND TAKES AT LEAST SOME REMNANTS OF IT INTO THE
PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT AIR MASS WILL
HAVE HEATED AND DESTABILIZED BY THEN...SO THE 12 UTC HRRR COULD BE
CORRECT IN SHOWING SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE STORMS BEFORE 00 UTC.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN BACK TO THE WEST...
AND THOSE SAME HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS STILL SIMULATE NEW STORMS ON
THAT FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO LONG AS DEBRIS FROM THE
FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION DOES NOT HINDER HEATING TOO MUCH...THERE
WILL STILL BE 500 T0 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO WORK WITH...SO WE FEEL
THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL INDEED FORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. THAT IS SUPPORTED EVEN BY THE 12 UTC NAM. THERE
WILL BE SOME SEVERE WIND OR HAIL POTENTIAL WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6
KM BULK WIND SHEAR. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUED WITH THE HANDLING OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM
FOR NEXT WEEK. UPPER LOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IN THE GULF OF AK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WAS
FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NW MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHED THE REGION. THE
GFS ROTATED THE SYSTEM N THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH TUE NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF HAD THE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ID BY 12Z WED. THE GEM
WAS SIMILAR...AND HAS BEEN...TO THE ECMWF. AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED...THE MODELS CONTINUED TO BUILD DRY AIR AND A THERMAL
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASED
OVER THE AREA IN THE ECMWF ON WED...WHILE THE GFS LIFTED THE SYSTEM
N AND KEPT A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE MODELS AGREED ON DEVELOPING
A STRONG 850 MB JET OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO
WED. THE GFS CONTINUED TO FORECAST VERY HIGH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES TUE
AND TUE NIGHT...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE HINDERED BY THE STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND THE DRY AIRMASS.
GIVEN THE ABOVE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM...MADE
VERY FEW POP CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ON MON...DID
CONFINE POPS FROM KBIL W AS THE E LOOKED TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION. KEPT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MON NIGHT...AND LOW
POPS OVER THE REGION ON TUE. WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY INCREASING OVER
THE AREA ON TUE NIGHT...HAD MOSTLY CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA. ON
WED...KEPT CHANCE POPS E AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S COLD
FRONT...OTHERWISE HAD SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO THE MOISTURE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS. DUE TO THE WARM AIRMASS AND GOOD MIXING...RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MON AND TUE. HIGHS IN THE 90S APPEARED
POSSIBLE...SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WARM AND DRY
SCENARIO.
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN CONTINUED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. SO
CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. MADE LIMITED TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS BEYOND TUE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL...IT WILL BE
COOLER THAN MON AND TUE. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KLVM BY LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
KLVM AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN VERY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KBIL. PRECIPITATION WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 054/080 057/090 062/091 056/073 048/070 050/073
4/T 52/T 22/T 32/T 32/T 22/T 22/W
LVM 083 047/080 049/088 053/089 046/064 039/067 041/073
6/T 53/T 34/T 32/T 43/T 22/T 22/W
HDN 088 057/081 055/090 061/094 056/077 048/072 050/076
2/T 51/B 21/B 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/W
MLS 089 057/080 059/091 065/093 061/079 052/073 054/076
2/T 51/B 11/B 22/T 33/T 22/T 22/W
4BQ 087 058/079 056/089 063/091 059/080 051/072 052/076
2/T 31/B 11/B 22/T 23/T 22/T 22/W
BHK 085 058/077 057/086 060/086 057/079 051/073 053/075
1/B 51/B 11/B 22/T 33/T 32/T 22/W
SHR 085 050/081 054/087 060/091 055/075 046/069 047/072
2/T 31/B 21/B 21/B 22/T 22/T 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1008 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.UPDATE...JUST COMPLETED AN EVENING FORECAST UPDATE ADDRESSING THE
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z. AS SUSPECTED A FEW HOURS AGO...STORMS
WERE ULTIMATELY NOT ABLE TO GET GOING ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT NOW ROUGHLY BISECTS THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST. ALSO...MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS STILL ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AT
LEAST 1-2 COUNTIES WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...OR UNTIL
THEY ULTIMATELY FADE AWAY. BOTTOM LINE IS...HAVE NO THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON THE LARGER SCALE
PICTURE...EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL DATA
DEPICTS THE PRIMARY REGIONAL SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST NOW WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS...WHILE OFF TO THE WEST...THE
PRONOUNCED RIDGE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO
BECOME EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CWA ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY. ALTHOUGH HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION SOMETIMES HAS A WAY OF SNEAKING FARTHER EAST THAN
EXPECTED...THE FACT THAT STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THAT LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE AT THE
850MB LEVEL CLEARLY CONTINUES TO FOCUS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA...JUST DON/T SEE ENOUGH REASON TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR
THE LATE NIGHT 06Z-12Z PERIOD. TEMP-WISE...TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS
VERY SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY DOWNWARD 1-2 DEGREES AT MOST IN SOME
AREAS WITH EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LATEST TRENDS
FROM HOURLY GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
UPDATE...JUST SENT A NEW ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT...FOR THE SOLE
PURPOSE OF PURGING LATE AFTERNOON WORDING FROM THE PRODUCT. MADE
NO CHANGES WHATSOEVER YET TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT GRIDS...AND
WILL LIKELY ADDRESS THAT WITH AN UPDATE IN A FEW HOURS. AM KEEPING
AN EYE ON A NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CURRENTLY STRETCHED
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR GOTHENBURG TO ALBION FOR POSSIBLE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...BUT SO FAR IT HAS
REMAINED VERY SHALLOW AND CAPPED. THIS LINE OF CUMULUS LINES UP
QUITE WELL WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 3/4 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT EVEN THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROG SUGGESTS THAT
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS INCOMING BOUNDARY SHOULD BE QUITE
SPARSE...IF IT EVEN OCCURS AT ALL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER CONSISTING OF ONLY
SOME PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AND MAYBE A FEW FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS ON MONDAY. AS FAR AS CAVEATS TO THIS BENIGN FORECAST
GO...THERE ARE TWO WORTH MENTIONING. FIRST OF ALL...THERE IS THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCE THAT A BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT...BUT LIKELIHOOD IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE.
ALSO...SUPPOSE A BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN LIGHT HAZE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN
THE LIKELIHOOD IS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT A FORMAL MENTION.
WIND-WISE...SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AT/BELOW 10KT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. OPTED TO USE VARIABLE 6KT WORDING FOR TONIGHT AS A SUBTLE
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO MORE OF A LIGHT BUT STEADY NORTHEAST BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME
MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS
RELEGATED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AS A RESULT. DESPITE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
INDICATE A COUPLE WARM CORE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH...AS OF 18Z...WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KONL...TO NEAR KLXN AND
KMCK...TO EAST OF KGLD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN
LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUDS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND FOR A SHORT WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON KUEX WAS INDICATING WEAK RETURNS FROM KODX TO
KBBW...ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND RAP ALL INDICATE CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND BROAD-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL
REMAIN WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE CWA PER THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AN RAP ALL INDICATE
AN ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BEING REALIZED. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC ALL SUGGEST INCREASED VALUES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND SOMEWHAT INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 2000J/KG...WITH THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTING THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
2500-3000J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
SREF-MEAN...NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...RAP...AND SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALL SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DETERMINING IF/WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE REALIZED IS TOUGH ENOUGH...BUT DETERMINING
WHETHER OR NOT SAID CONVECTION WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED IS EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT. AS ALREADY MENTIONED...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BECOMING A REALITY...BUT THE OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS COOLING
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850MB AND 750MB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT GIVEN THE
HIGH VALUES OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD MUCH
RATHER PLAY IT SAFE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WITH SEVERE WORDING INCLUDED...STARTING 22Z FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KMCK...TO NEAR KEAR...AND SOUTHEAST OF KODX.
THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALSO SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND THUS WILL ALSO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN
OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING SHOULD PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER TIME AS WEAK SHORT WAVES TRY TO
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HOTTER THAN
NORMAL WITH SOME LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENTS IN THE PERIOD...AND IT
APPEARS THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
TUESDAY...HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
STILL HOLDING STRONG. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY...EXPECT TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY
ABOUT THE SAME AS ON MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LOW END CHANCES
OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHEN IT COMES TO THE
DETAILS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE SCALE
STORM SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON DIURNAL
HEATING...AND POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS MCS FORMATION OR OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AT
THE START OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR
COVERAGE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATES/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
652 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.UPDATE...JUST SENT A NEW ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT...FOR THE SOLE
PURPOSE OF PURGING LATE AFTERNOON WORDING FROM THE PRODUCT. MADE
NO CHANGES WHATSOEVER YET TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT GRIDS...AND
WILL LIKELY ADDRESS THAT WITH AN UPDATE IN A FEW HOURS. AM KEEPING
AN EYE ON A NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CURRENTLY STRETCHED
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR GOTHENBURG TO ALBION FOR POSSIBLE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...BUT SO FAR IT HAS
REMAINED VERY SHALLOW AND CAPPED. THIS LINE OF CUMULUS LINES UP
QUITE WELL WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 3/4 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT EVEN THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROG SUGGESTS THAT
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS INCOMING BOUNDARY SHOULD BE QUITE
SPARSE...IF IT EVEN OCCURS AT ALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER CONSISTING OF ONLY
SOME PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AND MAYBE A FEW FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS ON MONDAY. AS FAR AS CAVEATS TO THIS BENIGN FORECAST
GO...THERE ARE TWO WORTH MENTIONING. FIRST OF ALL...THERE IS THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCE THAT A BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT...BUT LIKELIHOOD IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE.
ALSO...SUPPOSE A BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN LIGHT HAZE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN
THE LIKELIHOOD IS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT A FORMAL MENTION.
WIND-WISE...SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AT/BELOW 10KT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. OPTED TO USE VARIABLE 6KT WORDING FOR TONIGHT AS A SUBTLE
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO MORE OF A LIGHT BUT STEADY NORTHEAST BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME
MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS
RELEGATED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AS A RESULT. DESPITE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
INDICATE A COUPLE WARM CORE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH...AS OF 18Z...WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KONL...TO NEAR KLXN AND
KMCK...TO EAST OF KGLD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN
LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUDS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND FOR A SHORT WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON KUEX WAS INDICATING WEAK RETURNS FROM KODX TO
KBBW...ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND RAP ALL INDICATE CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND BROAD-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL
REMAIN WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE CWA PER THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AN RAP ALL INDICATE
AN ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BEING REALIZED. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC ALL SUGGEST INCREASED VALUES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND SOMEWHAT INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 2000J/KG...WITH THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTING THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
2500-3000J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
SREF-MEAN...NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...RAP...AND SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALL SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DETERMINING IF/WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE REALIZED IS TOUGH ENOUGH...BUT DETERMINING
WHETHER OR NOT SAID CONVECTION WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED IS EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT. AS ALREADY MENTIONED...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BECOMING A REALITY...BUT THE OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS COOLING
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850MB AND 750MB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT GIVEN THE
HIGH VALUES OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD MUCH
RATHER PLAY IT SAFE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WITH SEVERE WORDING INCLUDED...STARTING 22Z FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KMCK...TO NEAR KEAR...AND SOUTHEAST OF KODX.
THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALSO SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND THUS WILL ALSO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN
OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING SHOULD PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER TIME AS WEAK SHORT WAVES TRY TO
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HOTTER THAN
NORMAL WITH SOME LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENTS IN THE PERIOD...AND IT
APPEARS THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
TUESDAY...HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
STILL HOLDING STRONG. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY...EXPECT TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY
ABOUT THE SAME AS ON MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LOW END CHANCES
OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHEN IT COMES TO THE
DETAILS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE SCALE
STORM SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON DIURNAL
HEATING...AND POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS MCS FORMATION OR OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AT
THE START OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR
COVERAGE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1217 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. TRICKY PART OF THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITH THE
WINDS...AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS AROUND THE AREA. WILL KEEP
THE VRB WIND DIRECTION GOING EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING TO THE S/SE THIS EVENING AS THE AXIS
SLIDES EAST. SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT...BETWEEN 5-10KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012/
UPDATE...JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE ADDRESSING ONLY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD THROUGH 12Z. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO LINGER A TOKEN 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
1/2 OF THE CWA...AS RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM THAT POTENTIALLY SPOTTY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 03Z AS EARLIER
FORECAST INDICATED. PULLED THUNDER WORDING FOR THE NIGHT...AS NO
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED FOR A FEW HOURS NOW AND
REMAINING MUCAPE IS ALMOST NIL PER RUC-BASED MESOANALYSIS.
ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS
FAIRLY SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE LINGERING SHOWERS
CONCENTRATED WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND AN 80-90KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...THIS MODEST UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA...AND THUS HAVE NO PRECIPITATION MENTION POST-06Z.
THAT BEING SAID...THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROG TRIES TO BRING
A NARROW BAND OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CWA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z...WHICH SEEMS TO BE TIED TO ANOTHER SUBTLE
RIBBON OF FRONTOGENESIS/THETA-E ADVECTION EVIDENT AROUND 700MB.
WILL OMIT THIS FROM THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT SURPRISED
TO SEE IT FORM...AS THE LAST 18 HOURS HAVE AGAIN PROVEN THAT GETTING
CONSIDERABLE LEAD TIME ON LOW-IMPACT RAINFALL EVENTS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW IS NOTORIOUSLY CHALLENGING. TEMPERATURE WISE...MADE NO CHANGE
WHATSOEVER TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...STILL AIMING FOR UPPER 40S-LOW 50S.
PER LATEST HOURLY GFS LAMP GUIDANCE...THERE ARE HINTS THAT
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD HOLD THINGS UP THINGS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED...BUT AFTER DIPPING BELOW FORECAST
LOWS THE PAST FEW MORNINGS AM NOT GOING TO BET ON IT. ALSO THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT LIGHT FOG COULD TRY FORMING LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE MOIST GROUND IN AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 18
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DEVELOPMENT GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL ALSO OMIT THIS MENTION FROM GRIDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY
REMAINS POSITIONED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. MID-AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A MID LEVEL LOW
IS NOTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
OVER THE THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
NOTED NEAR KEMP...AND A TROUGH EXISTS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA ON
SOUTH ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL
FLOW GENERALLY REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS PROMOTING
A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH SHOULD
HELP PULL THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SURFACE TROUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA. THE BULK OF THE THERMAL ADVECTION AND DPVA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOULD REMAIN EAST/NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA...BUT JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL OMEGA...ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS
ENCASED MUCH OF OUR CWA UNDER A MESO-HIGH AND WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE QUITE LOW...INSTABILITY IS HARDLY ANYTHING TO GET EXCITED
ABOUT. THAT BEING SAID...VISIBILITY SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES
INDICATE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BREAK ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST AND
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WHAT LITTLE DIABATIC
HEATING WE RECEIVE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT INCREASING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST...COULD PERHAPS PROMOTE ~100J/KG
DEEP LAYER MUCAPE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST 21Z-03Z...WITH THUNDER
MENTION ALSO INCLUDED. SUBSIDENCE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA
BY 03Z TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES WELL
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AND WITH AN OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC
FORCING DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PRESENT THEMSELVES TO OUR AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
BELOW-NORMAL LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND
RELATIVELY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE AREA. CLEARING
SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND A DOWN-SLOPING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD WILL THEN HELP PROMOTE A MUCH WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL
RECURRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WE BEGIN WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL
PLAINS...FLANKED BY AN ALREADY DEEPLY AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH TO THE
EAST AND DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND NUDGES EAST...WITH THE THETA-E
AXIS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN CWA...HELPING TO GIVE US A BIT
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. THIS WILL NOT BE A
SCENARIO FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MORE LIKE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
BY SUNDAY...THE INSTABILITY AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA...WHICH WILL HELP
SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE WEAK
BOUNDARY...SO WILL BE A BETTER SHOT AT A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE MODERATE.
THE SCENARIO OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LOW SHEAR WILL HOLD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
HIGH PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCES OF STRONG TO
SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS ANTICIPATED AS OF NOW AS
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST IN THE HIGHER PLAINS. THE HEAT WILL ALSO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...KEEPING DRY EXCEPT SOME FAR WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THAT THE MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST COULD INCLUDE A CLOSED LOW.
WHAT MODELS DO WITH THE LOW DIFFER TO SOME DEGREE...BUT I TEND TO
LIKE THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES SOLUTION FOR THE PAST CONSISTENCY. BY
THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD JOIN WITH THE SEVERELY POSITIVELY
TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH ON THE EAST FLANK OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
THEN BISECT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS IN AN
WEST-EAST ORIENTATION. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS...BUT KEEPS THE
RIDGE IN TACT. AT THE SAME TIME...AT THE SURFACE THE ECMWF DEPICTS
AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
TROUGHINESS SHOULD GIVE US OUR BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION FOR THE
LONG TERM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE TIME
PERIOD THAT WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE TOWARD POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
AS WE HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AND STRONGER FOCUS
AT THE SURFACE. THIS SCENARIO IS A BIT DICEY TO PREDICT AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION IS NOT THE
GREATEST...WITH SMALLER DETAILS BEING QUITE UNCERTAIN. A COOL DOWN
IS IN ORDER FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE GETS PINCHED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...ADO
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT...BRYANT
LONG...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1104 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MID TO LATE WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM SUNDAY...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN TIGHTENED
OVERNITE RESULTING WITH SW-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...10 TO 15 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS A RESULT...THE MIN TEMP FORECAST WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER MIN TEMPS FROM MOS GUIDANCE. WILL LIKELY SEE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID OR MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE DISSIPATING MCS OVER NORTHERN GA AND SOUTHWEST
SOUTH CAROLINA. THE MUCH STRONGER MCS OVER WEST TENNESSEE COULD
BECOME A NUISANCE TO OUR MOST SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ILM CWA. FOR
NOW...HAVE INDICATED LOW POPS IN THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...2 PRIMARY FEATURES IMPACT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WEATHER...MCS ENERGY DROPPING SE ALONG AN UPSTREAM THICKNESS RIDGE
AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY. POTENTIAL MCS CONVECTION
APPEARS TARGETED OVER THE FFC/CHS FORECAST AREA JUST SOUTH OF OUR
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POP VALUES IN THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY APPEAR WARRANTED...FAVORED OVER SC. SPC HAS PAINTED A
SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST SOUTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...TIMED NEARLY WITH PEAK HEATING.
IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SE OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INLAND...TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY ALONG
THE COAST. COLUMN MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SCANT BY THIS TIME AND
POP VALUES WERE HELD IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH A
SHOWER COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE.
MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. COOLER TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. MIN TEMPS
MAY BE REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY NIGHT WITH DEBRIS OR CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY
A 59-67 DEGREE RANGE...MILDEST SOUTH COAST AND COOLEST NORTHERN
INTERIOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT TROUGINESS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL MAKE BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES BE THE MAIN CHARACTERISTIC OF
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN STALLED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WELL...AND THIS COULD SERVE
AS A SOURCE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY HOLD TRUE
SHOULD ANY OF THE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA INDUCE A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODELS FINALLY BACKING AWAY FROM
THIS IDEA NOW HOWEVER AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A MINOR ROLE
IN THE FORECAST AT BEST. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME
VERY FLAT SURFACE WAVES RIPPLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THESE LOWS
REMAIN QUITE FLAT SINCE THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER SHORTWAVES
WED. THURSDAYS SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE TRAVELING OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE
HIGH AND MAY ONLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. THE LAST BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD COME THROUGH ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT AGREEING WHETHER ITS THE LAST TO CROSS
THE LANDMASS OR THE FIRST TO DIVE SOUTH OFF THE COAST AS THE MEAN
TROUGH IS ALREADY IN A STATE OF LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST. BARRING
THIS TIMING QUIBBLE THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RISING HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST FOR A QUICK RETURN TO
CLIMO TEMPS OR ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH
CUMULUS DISSIPATING. A MODERATE WEST WIND WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NO FOG EXPECTED. MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIGHTENS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO FIRE MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO COVERAGE...SO
WILL GO WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY...GUSTY AT TIMES BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM SUNDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
FOR THE WATERS BETWEEN SURF CITY NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-MORNING DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A LOW
LEVEL JET. LATEST HRRR SFC WIND FIELD ILLUSTRATES THIS NICELY.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ILM NC WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4
FT...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL
RUN 5 TO 7 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NO WIND AND SEA HAZARDS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.
TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES OVER SC...THUS IT SEEMS THE SOUTH COAST
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A TSTM. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE
OVER THE WATERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO N
AND NE TUESDAY. WINDS HOWEVER LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY OR EVEN
CAUTIONARY SPEEDS. SEAS PRIMARILY CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT S-SW
CHOP MIXED WITH WEAK ESE-SE SWELL. AGAIN MAIN HAZARD...TSTMS OVER
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT. WITH NW STEERING FLOW/STORM MOTION
ANY SEA BREEZE ERUPTIONS COULD FEASIBLY APPROACH THE INNER WATERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
DUE TO FLAT AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL BACK THE OTHERWISE E/NE WINDS SLIGHTLY OVER NRN ZONES AND MORE
NOTICEABLY OVER SRN WATERS WHERE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT MAY BE
INTRODUCED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD A NE WIND WILL CONTINUE
AS THE FRONT SITS OFF TO THE SOUTH. SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
COMPRISED OF WIND WAVES AS OPPOSED TO SWELLS. WITH WINDS GENERALLY
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 2 TO 3
FT...OCCASIONALLY 4 FT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS/EASTERNMOST REACHES
OF FCST AREA. ON FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD SAG FURTHER SOUTH IN A
WEAKENING STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO OOZE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND/SEAS WILL ABATE BY
APPROXIMATELY 5KT/1FT RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...HDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1052 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND WARM. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...ALLOWING LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. RUC 850 TO
500 HPA RH SUGGESTS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ND. SURFACE TO 850 HPA LAYER IS DRY...BUT
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FORECAST HIGHS...SO SOME THERMAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT IN THE 8 TO 9 KFT LAYER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS LAKES
COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR. OVERALL...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ONLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PCPN
CHANCES SUNDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD WITH
NO REAL PREFERENCE.
IN THE NEAR TERM WILL MONITOR FOR ANY EARLY AM FOG POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER FA TODAY. CLOUD COVER
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE SOME CI SPILLING OVER RIDGE...LINGERING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY OF ABOVE NOT LIKELY TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AS SHOULD BE SCT. SOLAR COMBINED WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE AND ADVANCING CLOUDS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION OF SOME DEGREE OF COVERAGE
SHOULD ORGANIZE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ND LATE AS WARM ADVECTION
MAXIMA AND DEEPER LAYERED RH MOVES IN. WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
SOME OF THIS COULD REACH WESTERN AREAS TOWARDS MORNING AND WILL
MAINTAIN POPS. WITH MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR EAST PCPN
WILL PROPAGATE AND COVERAGE WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END.
PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES INCREASE TO GREATER THAN AN INCH HOWEVER
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN
THUNDER MENTION...LOOKS BEST ACROSS THE SOUTH.
BEST UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE DAY STILL ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SO
APPEARS FAVORED AREAS FOR ANY PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO UPPER SUPPORT AND THE SOUTH CLOSER TO BETTER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM SURFACE LOW AND GREATER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
WILL FOCUS HIGHER POPS IN THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER WITH THERMAL RIDGE AXIS OVER FA ANY
BREAKS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES. WILL HOLD CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH
READING AT OR ABOVE TODAYS ANTICIPATED MAX TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE BOUNDARY REACHES VALLEY BY EVENING SO ANY LINGERING PCPN
SHOULD BE EAST OF FRONT ACROSS MN. COLUMN DOES NOT COOL GREATLY SO
MINIMUMS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THERMAL PROFILES SHOWING NOT MUCH
CHANGE SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEEKEND MAX
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
GFS LONG WAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN GREENLAND FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST OF CANADA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALSO
LONG WAVE RIDGE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE THU OR
FRI TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY THEREAFTER. MODELS ARE
VACILLATING BETWEEN RUNS AND SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ON TUE
THROUGH WED NIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
ROGERS/VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1020 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH MID AND UPPER DISTURBANCES
LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KNOCKING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE BACK A COUPLE HOURS AND SOME SKY GRID TWEAKS. GRIDS IN
GOOD SHAPE OTHERWISE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES TODAY. AREA REMAINS IN NW
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS W TO SW.
USED RUC ALGORITHM TO MIX DOWN GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. SMALLER DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH ARE HARDER
TO PICK OUT. IT LOOKS LIKE ONE OVER EASTERN OHIO EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING NOTHING MORE THAN MID / HI CLOUD...AND IS
DESTINED FOR WESTERN PA. ANOTHER IS MORE EASILY EVIDENT OVER THE
MIDWEST...WHERE SPOTTY LIGHT RADAR ENERGY IS BEING RETURNED. THIS
ONE CROSSES SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE NAM12 SEEMS TO HINT AT AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. IT MAKES SENSE THAT THE HEATING OF THE EARLY JUNE
DAY BENEATH THE COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE N WHERE HEIGHTS / TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE LOWEST.
FINALLY...LEANED TOWARD NAM12 ON CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SUGGESTS MORE
CLOUDS S AND PERHAPS LESS N WITH A DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN THERE
FROM THE W. EITHER WAY...SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH CLOUD AND FLOW TO
PRECLUDE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LITTLE NERVOUS ABOUT CENTRAL
KY WITH 6 SM BR ON CLEARING DESPITE 5 KTS OF WIND. DO HAVE THE
ADDITIONAL DAY OF DRYING TODAY THOUGH.
BLENDED IN THE ADJMET 50/50 WITH PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS TODAY AND
ONLY 25/50 FOR LOWS TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ESPECIALLY
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
HOWEVER WILL TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND
EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST
AS IT DOES. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ON TUESDAY AND EXITS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THROUGHOUT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WITH UPR LOW/TROF
ACROSS NE CONUS AND STOUT RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS KEEPS AREA
IN NW FLOW AND AT MERCY OF ANY DISTURBANCES ROTATING DOWN. MDLS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN
THRU TROF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS...SOME OF IT BELOW 2 KFT...WILL LIFT
INTO VFR LATER THIS MORNING AS IT ALSO REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. COULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR MORNING CU BACK ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS BUT PROBABLY NOT AS FAR W AS THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT THE
CIGS TO STAY VFR TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ON THE HEATING OF THE
DAY AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT. AN EVENING THUNDERSHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN SE OHIO OR NRN WV. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER OVER AN
AIRPORT WILL BRING AT WORST BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
W TO SW SFC FLOW GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
TODAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MODERATE AND MAINLY FROM THE W.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUD AND WIND TO AGAIN PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS
COULD VARY...AS CAN THAT OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
604 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH MID AND UPPER DISTURBANCES
LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES TODAY. AREA REMAINS IN NW
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS W TO SW.
USED RUC ALGORITHM TO MIX DOWN GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. SMALLER DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH ARE HARDER
TO PICK OUT. IT LOOKS LIKE ONE OVER EASTERN OHIO EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING NOTHING MORE THAN MID / HI CLOUD...AND IS
DESTINED FOR WESTERN PA. ANOTHER IS MORE EASILY EVIDENT OVER THE
MIDWEST...WHERE SPOTTY LIGHT RADAR ENERGY IS BEING RETURNED. THIS
ONE CROSSES SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE NAM12 SEEMS TO HINT AT AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. IT MAKES SENSE THAT THE HEATING OF THE EARLY JUNE
DAY BENEATH THE COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE N WHERE HEIGHTS / TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE LOWEST.
FINALLY...LEANED TOWARD NAM12 ON CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SUGGESTS MORE
CLOUDS S AND PERHAPS LESS N WITH A DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN THERE
FROM THE W. EITHER WAY...SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH CLOUD AND FLOW TO
PRECLUDE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LITTLE NERVOUS ABOUT CENTRAL
KY WITH 6 SM BR ON CLEARING DESPITE 5 KTS OF WIND. DO HAVE THE
ADDITIONAL DAY OF DRYING TODAY THOUGH.
BLENDED IN THE ADJMET 50/50 WITH PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS TODAY AND
ONLY 25/50 FOR LOWS TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ESPECIALLY
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
HOWEVER WILL TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND
EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST
AS IT DOES. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ON TUESDAY AND EXITS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THROUGHOUT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WITH UPR LOW/TROF
ACROSS NE CONUS AND STOUT RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS KEEPS AREA
IN NW FLOW AND AT MERCY OF ANY DISTURBANCES ROTATING DOWN. MDLS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN
THRU TROF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS...SOME OF IT BELOW 2 KFT...WILL LIFT
INTO VFR LATER THIS MORNING AS IT ALSO REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. COULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR MORNING CU BACK ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS BUT PROBABLY NOT AS FAR W AS THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT THE
CIGS TO STAY VFR TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ON THE HEATING OF THE
DAY AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT. AN EVENING THUNDERSHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN SE OHIO OR NRN WV. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER OVER AN
AIRPORT WILL BRING AT WORST BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
W TO SW SFC FLOW GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
TODAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MODERATE AND MAINLY FROM THE W.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUD AND WIND TO AGAIN PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS
COULD VARY...AS CAN THAT OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 06/02/12
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH MID AND UPPER DISTURBANCES
LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES TODAY. AREA REMAINS IN NW
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS W TO SW.
USED RUC ALGORITHM TO MIX DOWN GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. SMALLER DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH ARE HARDER
TO PICK OUT. IT LOOKS LIKE ONE OVER EASTERN OHIO EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING NOTHING MORE THAN MID / HI CLOUD...AND IS
DESTINED FOR WESTERN PA. ANOTHER IS MORE EASILY EVIDENT OVER THE
MIDWEST...WHERE SPOTTY LIGHT RADAR ENERGY IS BEING RETURNED. THIS
ONE CROSSES SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE NAM12 SEEMS TO HINT AT AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. IT MAKES SENSE THAT THE HEATING OF THE EARLY JUNE
DAY BENEATH THE COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE N WHERE HEIGHTS / TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE LOWEST.
FINALLY...LEANED TOWARD NAM12 ON CLOUDS TONIGHT WHICH SUGGESTS MORE
CLOUDS S AND PERHAPS LESS N WITH A DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN THERE
FROM THE W. EITHER WAY...SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH CLOUD AND FLOW TO
PRECLUDE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LITTLE NERVOUS ABOUT CENTRAL
KY WITH 6 SM BR ON CLEARING DESPITE 5 KTS OF WIND. DO HAVE THE
ADDITIONAL DAY OF DRYING TODAY THOUGH.
BLENDED IN THE ADJMET 50/50 WITH PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS TODAY AND
ONLY 25/50 FOR LOWS TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ESPECIALLY
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
HOWEVER WILL TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND
EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST
AS IT DOES. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ON TUESDAY AND EXITS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THROUGHOUT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WITH UPR LOW/TROF
ACROSS NE CONUS AND STOUT RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS KEEPS AREA
IN NW FLOW AND AT MERCY OF ANY DISTURBANCES ROTATING DOWN. MDLS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN
THRU TROF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU BECOMING MORE PATCHY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING AND THEN
MORE WIDESPREAD BUT CELLULAR SAT AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS MVFR AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CIGS COULD DROP BELOW 2 KFT. CIGS
SHOULD RISE ON MIXING SAT FOR VFR AREA WIDE BY SAT AFTERNOON. CIGS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE THE MVFR THRESHOLD SAT NT.
NOTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OVERNIGHT...THEN POP UP SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON ON THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT. IT
MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FOR LATE DAY
THUNDER SAT. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER OVER AN AIRPORT WILL BRING
AT WORST BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
W TO SW SFC FLOW GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SAT
WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MODERATE AND MAINLY FROM THE W.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HOLES OPENING UP IN
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS...RESULTING IN JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 06/02/12
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1049 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT/
WEAK SURFACE TROF MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHCENTRAL IOWA. NO INDICATIONS OF
ANY BACKBUILDING ALONG BOUNDARY SO WILL DROP MENTION OF ANY TRW
THERE AFTER 03Z. LATEST HRRR WOULD CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SUNNY SKIES AND NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. /CHENARD
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT/
DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EVEN NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL BE PRETTY REMOTE. THE SHORT
WAVE WHICH MOVED THROUGH OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY IS LONG GONE...WIND
SHEAR IS WEAK AND THERE IS NO REAL MID LEVEL COOLING. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
VERMILLION SD TO WINDOM MN LINE...BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
REALIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST OR
NORTHERLY.
ON MONDAY...THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO TAKE SHAPE WITH ITS AXIS CENTERED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PLAINS. TWO VERY LARGE UPPER LOWS ARE FOUND ON EACH COAST
HELPING TO CEMENT THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEATHER GIVING A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY
WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL PROFILES SIMILAR TO MONDAY...AND HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 80S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STAYING UP A BIT AS SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.
WHILE THINK THAT MOST OF WEDNESDAY WILL DRY...GFS/ECMWF BOTH BRING A
SHORTWAVE THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH INSTABILITY AND THETA E
ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.
ECMWF MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT DID BRING SMALL POPS
INTO OUR WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS JUST A TOUCH
COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH READINGS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
IN THE EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW
WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN PRETTY WELL AGREED UPON AMONG
THE VARIOUS MODELS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WESTERN U.S. ENERGY PUSHES TO THE EAST. CONVECTION
CHANCES WITH REGARD TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING VARY QUITE A BIT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...SO HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR.
THINK BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN OUR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
SITUATED...AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST INTO OUR FAR WEST. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...MAY BE ABLE
TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO THE REMINDER OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MAINLY 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
845 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT/
WEAK SURFACE TROF MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHCENTRAL IOWA. NO INDICATIONS OF
ANY BACKBUILDING ALONG BOUNDARY SO WILL DROP MENTION OF ANY TRW
THERE AFTER 03Z. LATEST HRRR WOULD CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. SEEING SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST IOWA. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE
SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WILL CALM DOWN TOWARDS SUNSET. SUNNY SKIES AND
NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. /CHENARD
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT/
DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EVEN NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL BE PRETTY REMOTE. THE SHORT
WAVE WHICH MOVED THROUGH OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY IS LONG GONE...WIND
SHEAR IS WEAK AND THERE IS NO REAL MID LEVEL COOLING. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
VERMILLION SD TO WINDOM MN LINE...BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
REALIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST OR
NORTHERLY.
ON MONDAY...THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO TAKE SHAPE WITH ITS AXIS CENTERED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PLAINS. TWO VERY LARGE UPPER LOWS ARE FOUND ON EACH COAST
HELPING TO CEMENT THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEATHER GIVING A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY
WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL PROFILES SIMILAR TO MONDAY...AND HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 80S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STAYING UP A BIT AS SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.
WHILE THINK THAT MOST OF WEDNESDAY WILL DRY...GFS/ECMWF BOTH BRING A
SHORTWAVE THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH INSTABILITY AND THETA E
ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.
ECMWF MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT DID BRING SMALL POPS
INTO OUR WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS JUST A TOUCH
COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH READINGS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
IN THE EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW
WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN PRETTY WELL AGREED UPON AMONG
THE VARIOUS MODELS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WESTERN U.S. ENERGY PUSHES TO THE EAST. CONVECTION
CHANCES WITH REGARD TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING VARY QUITE A BIT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...SO HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR.
THINK BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN OUR WESTERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
SITUATED...AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST INTO OUR FAR WEST. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...MAY BE ABLE
TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO THE REMINDER OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MAINLY 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1007 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEBILITATE AND ERODE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AS THEY APPROACH THE MEXICAN STATE OF
TAMAULIPAS. THE CAP IS MARKEDLY MORE PRONOUNCED NEAR THE BORDER AS
THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH 700 MB TEMPS A WARM
12C. DID LEAVE A 10 PERCENT SILENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RIO
GRANDE WITH HRRR SHOWING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING BETWEEN
LAREDO AND RIO BRAVO AROUND MIDNIGHT. DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS...BY NUDGING UP MINIMUM TEMPS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH THICK LAYER OF CIRROFORM CLOUDS IN CONCERT WITH STRATUS
DEVELOPING AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ONGOING FCST HAS ONGOING ELEMENT TRENDS GOING VERY WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR ALL TERMINALS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THEN MIX OF
MVFR/VFR THRU MID/LATE MRNG MON...FOLLOWED BY VFR ALL TERMINALS
MON AFTN. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO SKIRT ACROSS KCRP/KVCT/KALI
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY LOW CLD DECK DVLPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH
COVERAGE AND CIGS AT MVFR LEVELS. KLRD TO XPRIENCE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING WITH DENSE CI POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION OVER OLD
MEX. LOW CLOUD DECK WITH MVFR CIGS MAY DVLP AT KLRD AROUND SUNRISE
MON MRNG. MVFR CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY MON WITH
VFR PREVAILING MON AFTN ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS
TONIGHT AS SRLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. MODERATE AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SE WINDS DAYLIGHT HRS MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 91 75 92 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
VICTORIA 74 93 74 94 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
LAREDO 79 102 77 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 75 97 74 96 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 80 89 79 88 78 / 10 10 10 20 10
COTULLA 77 99 74 98 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 95 76 94 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 90 79 88 77 / 10 10 10 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SC/70...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
312 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES ON STORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FLOW WAS BACKING AND WEAKENING A BIT /AS SEEN
IN THE TUCUMCARI PROFILER DATA/ AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS SHIFTING
FROM THE EASTERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AN EJECTING
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL CO INTO NORTHEAST NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO
ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AS IT TRANSLATES
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND PERHAPS OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE WAS ALSO
ENHANCING THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM...AND
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION COULD MATERIALIZE WITHIN THE SFC TROUGH HERE
TOO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LAST PLACE OF CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ALONG A RETREATING BOUNDARY NOTED ON
RADAR LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. UP TO
THIS POINT CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY TAME.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE 18Z RAP AND 16Z HRRR DO INDICATE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HR IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. 19Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC BASED
CAPES OF 800-2400 J/KG WITH DIMINISHING CIN. GIVEN T/TD SPREADS
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS
WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER CORES ALOFT AND THE INSTABILITY
COULD ALSO SUPPORT THE OCCURRENCE OF LARGE HAIL. ALL SAID...HAVE
DRAWN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE N/NW/W ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ COULD KEEP
SOME ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FAVORING THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. SOUTHERLY BREEZES...DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS AND SOME
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
HEIGHTS WILL BE EVEN HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THIS FLOW REGIME WILL CAUSE THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST...STRONG HEATING/MIXING COUPLED WITH
THE DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER
WEAK /AOB 20 KTS/...SO STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE TOUGH TO COME
BY...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPLY MIXED BL COULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WITH HIGHS NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TO POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUILDING ON YESTERDAYS TURNABOUT WITH RESPECT
TO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. 12Z RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH A NARROW BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BACK
INTO THE NRN ZONES MONDAY THEN SLIP FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY. BACKING
FLOW TO SE THEN EVENTUALLY EAST SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE DRYLINE FROM MIXING TOO
FAR TO THE EAST. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE
RIDGE LEADING TO PROGGED PWAT BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES MONDAY WITH
EASTERN AREAS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WHEN CONSIDERING RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE
RIDGE STORM ORGANIZATION NOT TOO LIKELY THUS PRECIP COULD END UP
BEING SCATTERED...BUT HIGHER PWATS SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIP
MENTION FOR MONDAY FAVORING NRN ZONES CLOSEST TO EXPECTED BOUNDARY
POSITION AND INSERT PRECIP MENTION INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK TO POTENTIALLY END PRECIP CHANCES. WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW AND POTENTIALLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER COOLER
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
ALTHOUGH GIVEN PROGGED THICKNESSES IT APPEARS MOS GUIDANCE MAY BE
A TOUCH COOL AND WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARD WARMER END OF
ENSEMBLE NUMBERS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 98 62 93 62 / 40 10 10 20 30
TULIA 66 98 65 92 65 / 40 20 20 20 30
PLAINVIEW 68 97 66 93 65 / 30 20 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 66 99 67 96 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 69 100 69 96 67 / 20 20 20 20 20
DENVER CITY 67 99 67 96 63 / 20 20 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 67 100 67 96 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 69 101 70 96 68 / 30 20 20 10 30
SPUR 69 101 69 97 68 / 20 20 20 10 20
ASPERMONT 70 100 71 98 70 / 20 10 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1249 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED BETWEEN LBB AND CDS AS OF
17Z...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO ITS NORTHEAST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ENSUING AT LBB...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY
STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT CDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A SFC TROUGH NEAR THE TX/NM STATE
LINE...COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...CONFIDENCE THAT A STORM WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IS LOW AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT A
SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND
COULD POTENTIAL AFFECT CDS LATER TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 GROUP VALID FROM 3-9Z TONIGHT WITH THIS IN MIND. ASIDE FROM
A DIRECT IMPACT BY A STORM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT
THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1207 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
AND SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A MCV NOTED VIA RADAR DATA
SPINNING NEAR BENJAMIN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
THE FUTURE FORECAST...THOUGH THERE IS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT
HAS FILTERED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE...WITH WEAK AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS NOTED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE FA AS
OF 1630Z. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO GRADUAL WASH OUT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHWARD...THOUGH THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE
IT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON CI ACROSS
THE NE ZONES. HOWEVER...RECENT HIGH-RES NWP HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF
GENERATION WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN THERE
/MAINTAINING A MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE/. ELSEWHERE...A SFC TROUGH
PRESENT NEAR THE TX/NM LINE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
POP ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS...AND THE RECENT RAP RUNS HAVE
STARTED TO LEND SUPPORT TO THIS. IF STORMS DEVELOP
LOCALLY...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR RANGING FROM AROUND 20 KTS SOUTH TO 30 TO 35 KTS
NORTH...SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GREATER DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS PROJECTED TO TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS NE NM AND EASTERN CO AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK TO NEAR ZONAL...BUT A SMALL MCS OR TWO MAY ORGANIZE
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION WELL TO THE NW AND PROPAGATE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CLIP THE N/NE ZONES THIS
EVENING AND BRING THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES
TONIGHT...WHILE MAINTAINING 40 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM WIND AND DEWPOINT GRIDS
TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD LATER TODAY WILL BE FLATTENING AS THE
NEXT CONVECTIVE-ENHANCED DISTURBANCE EDGES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE INTO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH LYING NEAR THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE NEW MEXICO
LINE...WHILE TONIGHTS DYING ACTIVITY LIKELY TO ALSO LAY A BOUNDARY
DOWN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THAT SHOULD TEND TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
BY AFTERNOON AND HELP CATALYZE THUNDER ACTIVITY AGAIN OVER THE
PANHANDLE. BEST SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS
WELL...WHILE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MODEST
INSTABILITY MANY AREAS AS WELL. ANYWAY...BULK OF CLUES TONIGHT POINT
TOWARDS PANHANDLE AS HAVING BEST CAPABILITY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY...THOUGH TENDENCY FOR OUTFLOWS WILL
EXTEND CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE EVENT. ALSO...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT INITIATION OVER AT LEAST OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD
SURFACE CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZE PER WRF/NAM. ALL-IN-ALL...THIS LEADS
TO A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY NORTH AND WESTERN ZONES EDGING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE EVENING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
RISK THOUGH PANHANDLE AGAIN SHOULD SEE PRIMARY RISK AREA. OTHER
FORECAST FIELDS LARGELY RETAINED. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
OVERVIEW...
ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN LARGELY SIMILAR IN AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE HAS BEEN A
SHIFT IN MODEL OUTPUT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS REGARDING THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN DURING THIS TIME. ESSENTIALLY THIS CHANGE
INVOLVES A MORE STOUT AND MERIDIONAL SURFACE RIDGE POISED TO
RESIDE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHICH WILL TEND TO INFLUENCE OUR MEAN SURFACE FLOW WITH MORE OF AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERHAPS LASTING THROUGH
THE BETTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
AS HEIGHT RISES TAKE GRASP SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY RISING
THICKNESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BISECT THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN
AHEAD OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HI TEMPS FOR THIS ENTIRE
FORECAST WINDOW SHOULD PROVE THEIR HOTTEST SUN AS THIS PROCESS
OCCURS...ALTHOUGH SOME RELIEF IN THE FORM OF VERY ISO TSRA NEAR
THE DRYLINE STILL APPEARS PLAUSIBLE BY LATE AFTN DESPITE MINIMAL
BACKGROUND FORCING. MEANWHILE FARTHER NORTH...A MINOR TROUGH WILL
BE FOUND MOTORING EAST ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT IN THAT A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE CARRIED SOUTH IN ITS WAKE SUN NIGHT JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF A BURGEONING UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS MONDAY AFTN AND FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE INTRODUCED PRECIP
MENTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DAILY PRECIP CHANCES MAY INDEED BE IN THE OFFING AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...HOWEVER AM CONCERNED THAT
THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE BEING PLAGUED WITH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN THIS ANEMIC UPPER FLOW REGIME. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INHERITED FROM MONDAY COULD CERTAINLY REMAIN IN THE CWA TO SOME
DEGREE COME TUESDAY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE WASHING OUT WITH TIME AND
PROVE LESS OF A FACTOR FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE DRYLINE MAY
ALSO BE A NO SHOW SHOULD DEEP SELY FLOW DEVELOP PER THE GFS AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF. THIS WOULD BACK MOISTURE WELL INTO THE
PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO LEAVING OUR PRECIP CHANCES TIED MOSTLY TO
DIABATIC HEATING AND/OR UPSLOPE MECHANISMS. SINCE THIS CHANGE TO
A MORE MOIST LL FLOW IS STILL RELATIVELY RECENT...WE WILL PREFER
TO AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS BEFORE BLANKETING POPS ANY OR ALL DAYS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT IN MAX TEMPS BEING COOLER THAN WE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO VALUES AREA WIDE WERE KNOCKED BACK ABOUT
3-6 DEG EACH DAY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ARE REMINISCENT OF A MID-SUMMER PATTERN
WITH PRACTICALLY NIL STEERING FLOW AND PWATS OVER 1 INCH DURING
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. WHERE THIS DIFFERS HOWEVER IS WITH LAPSE RATES
WHICH APPEAR RATHER STEEP AT TIMES LENDING TO AMPLE CAPE AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 61 99 61 94 62 / 40 10 10 20 20
TULIA 65 100 65 92 66 / 40 20 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 67 98 66 93 66 / 30 20 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 65 100 66 96 66 / 20 20 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 69 101 68 96 68 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 65 100 66 97 64 / 20 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 66 101 66 97 66 / 20 20 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 69 102 70 96 70 / 30 20 20 20 20
SPUR 68 102 68 96 69 / 20 20 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 70 101 71 98 72 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1207 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
AND SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A MCV NOTED VIA RADAR DATA
SPINNING NEAR BENJAMIN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
THE FURTURE FORECAST...THOUGH THERE IS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT
HAS FILTERED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE...WITH WEAK AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS NOTED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE FA AS
OF 1630Z. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO GRADUAL WASH OUT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHWARD...THOUGH THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE
IT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON CI ACROSS
THE NE ZONES. HOWEVER...RECENT HIGH-RES NWP HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF
GENERATION WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN THERE
/MAINTAINING A MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE/. ELSEWHERE...A SFC TROUGH
PRESENT NEAR THE TX/NM LINE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
POP ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS...AND THE RECENT RAP RUNS HAVE
STARTED TO LEND SUPPORT TO THIS. IF STORMS DEVELOP
LOCALLY...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR RANGING FROM AROUND 20 KTS SOUTH TO 30 TO 35 KTS
NORTH...SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GREATER DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS PROJECTED TO TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS NE NM AND EASTERN CO AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK TO NEAR ZONAL...BUT A SMALL MCS OR TWO MAY ORGANIZE
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION WELL TO THE NW AND PROPAGATE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CLIP THE N/NE ZONES THIS
EVENING AND BRING THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES
TONIGHT...WHILE MAINTAINING 40 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM WIND AND DEWPOINT GRIDS
TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR. SMALL LINE OF -TSRA AFFECTING LBB WILL CLEAR THE
TERMINAL SHORTLY WITHOUT DISRUPTING VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
EXTENSIVE MID LAYER CLOUDS TO SLOWLY ERODE BY MIDDAY BEFORE A
MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF TSRA DEVELOPS NORTH OF LBB AND STANDS TO
THREATEN CDS BY EARLY EVENING. WILL KEEP PROB30 MENTION FOR NOW AT
CDS...THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR STORMS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
CDS CLOSE TO A RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD LATER TODAY WILL BE FLATTENING AS THE
NEXT CONVECTIVE-ENHANCED DISTURBANCE EDGES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE INTO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH LYING NEAR THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE NEW MEXICO
LINE...WHILE TONIGHTS DYING ACTIVITY LIKELY TO ALSO LAY A BOUNDARY
DOWN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THAT SHOULD TEND TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
BY AFTERNOON AND HELP CATALYZE THUNDER ACTIVITY AGAIN OVER THE
PANHANDLE. BEST SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS
WELL...WHILE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MODEST
INSTABILITY MANY AREAS AS WELL. ANYWAY...BULK OF CLUES TONIGHT POINT
TOWARDS PANHANDLE AS HAVING BEST CAPABILITY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY...THOUGH TENDENCY FOR OUTFLOWS WILL
EXTEND CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE EVENT. ALSO...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT INITIATION OVER AT LEAST OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD
SURFACE CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZE PER WRF/NAM. ALL-IN-ALL...THIS LEADS
TO A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY NORTH AND WESTERN ZONES EDGING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE EVENING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
RISK THOUGH PANHANDLE AGAIN SHOULD SEE PRIMARY RISK AREA. OTHER
FORECAST FIELDS LARGELY RETAINED. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
OVERVIEW...
ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN LARGELY SIMILAR IN AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE HAS BEEN A
SHIFT IN MODEL OUTPUT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS REGARDING THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN DURING THIS TIME. ESSENTIALLY THIS CHANGE
INVOLVES A MORE STOUT AND MERIDIONAL SURFACE RIDGE POISED TO
RESIDE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHICH WILL TEND TO INFLUENCE OUR MEAN SURFACE FLOW WITH MORE OF AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERHAPS LASTING THROUGH
THE BETTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
AS HEIGHT RISES TAKE GRASP SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY RISING
THICKNESSES...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BISECT THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN
AHEAD OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HI TEMPS FOR THIS ENTIRE
FORECAST WINDOW SHOULD PROVE THEIR HOTTEST SUN AS THIS PROCESS
OCCURS...ALTHOUGH SOME RELIEF IN THE FORM OF VERY ISO TSRA NEAR
THE DRYLINE STILL APPEARS PLAUSIBLE BY LATE AFTN DESPITE MINIMAL
BACKGROUND FORCING. MEANWHILE FARTHER NORTH...A MINOR TROUGH WILL
BE FOUND MOTORING EAST ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT IN THAT A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE CARRIED SOUTH IN ITS WAKE SUN NIGHT JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF A BURGEONING UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS MONDAY AFTN AND FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE INTRODUCED PRECIP
MENTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DAILY PRECIP CHANCES MAY INDEED BE IN THE OFFING AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...HOWEVER AM CONCERNED THAT
THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE BEING PLAGUED WITH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN THIS ANEMIC UPPER FLOW REGIME. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INHERITED FROM MONDAY COULD CERTAINLY REMAIN IN THE CWA TO SOME
DEGREE COME TUESDAY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE WASHING OUT WITH TIME AND
PROVE LESS OF A FACTOR FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE DRYLINE MAY
ALSO BE A NO SHOW SHOULD DEEP SELY FLOW DEVELOP PER THE GFS AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF. THIS WOULD BACK MOISTURE WELL INTO THE
PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO LEAVING OUR PRECIP CHANCES TIED MOSTLY TO
DIABATIC HEATING AND/OR UPSLOPE MECHANISMS. SINCE THIS CHANGE TO
A MORE MOIST LL FLOW IS STILL RELATIVELY RECENT...WE WILL PREFER
TO AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS BEFORE BLANKETING POPS ANY OR ALL DAYS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT IN MAX TEMPS BEING COOLER THAN WE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO VALUES AREA WIDE WERE KNOCKED BACK ABOUT
3-6 DEG EACH DAY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ARE REMINISCENT OF A MID-SUMMER PATTERN
WITH PRACTICALLY NIL STEERING FLOW AND PWATS OVER 1 INCH DURING
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. WHERE THIS DIFFERS HOWEVER IS WITH LAPSE RATES
WHICH APPEAR RATHER STEEP AT TIMES LENDING TO AMPLE CAPE AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 95 61 99 61 94 / 30 40 10 10 20
TULIA 95 65 100 65 92 / 30 40 20 10 20
PLAINVIEW 95 67 98 66 93 / 20 30 20 10 20
LEVELLAND 97 65 100 66 96 / 20 20 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 96 69 101 68 96 / 20 20 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 97 65 100 66 97 / 20 20 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 97 66 101 66 97 / 20 20 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 98 69 102 70 96 / 20 30 20 20 20
SPUR 99 68 102 68 96 / 20 20 20 20 10
ASPERMONT 99 70 101 71 98 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
640 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
240 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE PCPN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION BEING DRIVING BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE PCPN TO THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE EXITING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THERE BY 00Z.
MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH...TRICKIER SCENARIO. SHORTWAVE EXITS THIS
EVENING...BUT VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS DEVELOP PCPN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN/NORTHEAST IA OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
FRONTOGENETICS AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ENOUGH
CONSENSUS TO PERSIST CHANCES FOR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI
OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PER LATEST WATERVAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. 03.12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH DROP THIS PIECE OF ENERGY
INTO THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUE...WHILE HELPING TO SHARPEN A
DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND
TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. BEFORE THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THOUGH...THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SPIN
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT VIA LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OR QG
CONVERGENCE WITH EITHER FEATURE...ALTHOUGH SOME HINTS OF NORTH-SOUTH
RUNNING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
HOLDS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED.
THAT SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS POINT TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SATURATION IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WHILE
AFTERNOON MUCAPES TOP 500-1000 J/KG. MIX THIS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO THE LIFT/MOISTURE. SOME DIFFICULTIES IN
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THOUGH...AS THERE
REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON WHEN/WHERE THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE. THEY DO AGREE THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN MIGHT
BE SHIFTED WEST/SLOWED A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
SUGGESTED...THUS KEEPING ALL THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A PCPN THREAT.
ALSO...WOULD EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL PLAY A LARGER ROLL.
WILL TRY TO TAILOR PCPN CHANCES WITH THIS IN MIND.
OVERALL...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE
LOW WHEN IT COMES TO TIMING AND LOCATION.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
240 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT HEADED INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN...DRIVING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE
SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SFC FRONT WOULD BRING A SHOWER/STORM
THREAT TO THE REGION FRI INTO SAT. SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
COULD GET A PUSH EVEN WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
640 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
REGION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER WESTERN IOWA. NONE OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS LOW OR THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE LOW HAS
BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND THIS MOVEMENT IS BET HANDLED BY
THE 03.20Z HRRR WHICH TAKES THE LOW TOWARD KDSM THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE HRRR IS UNDER DONE WITH THE SHOWERS BUT
WHAT IT DOES HAVE IT ALSO MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
HAVE THUS HELD ON TO VCSH AT BOTH TAF SITES UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
THE EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS A RAGGED BACK EDGE TO THE CLOUDS AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT...EXPECT TO THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT
SHORTLY HAVE THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. HAVE CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MVFR FOG FOR KRST OVERNIGHT WITH THE SHOWER THE HIT THE
AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE CLOUDS
FOR NOW. EXPECTING MORE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE OVER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
240 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
101 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. LAST PIECE OF
ENERGY NOW SEEN ROTATING BACK TO THE WEST...NORTH OF THE
LOW...PUSHING CLOUDS AND PCPN BACK TOWARDS NORTHEAST WI. WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN...OR MOVE INTO...THE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S OR
LOWER 50S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO THE 30S. SMALL PCPN CHANCES TODAY
REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD.
STACKED LOW TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SUN MORNING...DEEPENING
SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN PCPN TRENDS AT THIS
TIME...WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS GOING...FAR NE AND DOOR COUNTY
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BACKING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS LOWS
INFLUENCE DIMINISHES. AS IN PAST DAYS...MODELS SHOWING GOOD
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND HINT AT WEAK SFC TROF/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MOVING OVER CWA THIS AFTERNOON. PROBLEM WITH THIS
FORECAST IS AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING RATHER DEEP
MIXING FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WOULD LIMIT ANY SB INSTABILITY. WILL STAY
WITH MAINLY ISOLD POPS AND LIMIT THUNDER TO SOUTH.
HEIGHTS TO RISE AS RIDGE TO WEST BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.
HAVE HELD TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TODAY WITH CLOUDS...THOUGH
RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ON SUN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NGT THRU NXT FRI. MAIN FCST CONCERN REMAINS
THE EXTENT OF PCPN DURING THE PERIOD AND TRYING TO ATTEMPT TO
ASCERTAIN EXACTLY WHICH DAYS TO FOCUS ON. ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SCATTERED AT BEST. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE MUCH NXT WEEK WITH READINGS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
MDLS CONT TO INDICATE A MID-LVL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THRU THE CNTRL CONUS UPR RDG...THEN DIVING SE THRU THE UPR MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS/MIDWEST SUNDAY NGT. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM MN S-SE INTO IA
AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD HELP FOCUS THE SHWR POTENTIAL MORE TO OUR
SW IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS FEATURE IS NOW A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN LAST NGT`S MDL RUNS...THUS HAVE FOCUSED ANY PCPN TIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND PRIMARILY OVER CNTRL WI. THIS DELAY IN PCPN COULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF MORE DEGS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT WITH READINGS AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI.
WHILE THE SHORTWAVE CONTS TO TREK SE TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ON MON...THE MDLS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING SWD THRU THE
GREAT LKS AROUND THE LARGE ERN CONUS UPR TROF. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS TROF WITH DAYTIME HEATING (INCREASING INSTABILITY) WL HELP TO
DEVELOP SOME SHWR ACTIVITY ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM. MAX TEMPS
WL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST ANY PCPN CAN DEVELOP...THUS READINGS
COULD TOP OUT ANYWHERE IN THE 70S.
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF WL END ANY LINGERING SHWR THREAT MON EVENING. OTHERWISE...AN
AREA OF CANADIAN HI PRES IS FCST TO BEGIN DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LKS LATER MON NGT BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS. WE WL SEE MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S TO
THE MID 50S E-CNTRL WI.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS INTACT THRU THE
MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK WITH DEEP UPR TROFS OVER THE WRN U.S./ERN U.S.
AND A NARROW UPR RDG OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. NE WI TO
RESIDE ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE RDG...BUT ALSO SIT ON THE WRN FLANK
OF THE ERN U.S. UPR TROF. THIS LEAVES THE FCST AREA VULNERABLE TO
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROFS OR INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU
THE BADGER STATE AND KICKING OFF A FEW SHWRS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RUN FROM
TUE THRU AT LEAST THU BEFORE THE UPR RDG SLIDES FAR ENUF EAST TO
POTENTIALLY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE TIME FRI ROLLS AROUND. DUE
TO THE GENERAL UNCERTAINTY IN TRYING TO TIME EACH OF THESE LITTLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS...HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS MDL SOLUTION WHICH
POINTS TO LOW CHC POPS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS FOR
TEMPS...READINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT DUE TO LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIR MASS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO END UP CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS NXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NEAR GRB...WEST TOWARD AUW AND
CWA THROUGH ABOUT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
ALSO POSSIBLE BUT WAS NOT EXPLICITLY INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THE
BROKEN BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY INCLUDING ATW AND OSH BETWEEN ABOUT 2 PM AND
ABOUT 4 PM.
GIVEN THE INSTABLITY...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER HIGHER-BASED
SHOWERS...THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
ESB
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1220 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON
1220 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
ADDED SCATTERED SHRA/IOSLD T ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP SHOWS A BETTER
ORGANIZED MID/SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WITH 0-3KM MUCAPE APPROACHING 1500J/KG. APPEARS TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATES SHRA/ISOLD T THREAT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THIS
AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 4-5 PM TIME FRAME.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
315 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
BOTH THE 02.00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW A SOMEWHAT BLOCKY PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TROUGHS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG
BOTH COASTS WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN. AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE
BETWEEN THE EASTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. SEVERAL SPOKES
OF ENERGY FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING PERIODIC SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1220 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER REGION AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DIURNAL CUMULUS AT KRST/KLSE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 12KFT ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MN...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE KRST TAF SITE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
315 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...JLR
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
641 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. LAST PIECE OF
ENERGY NOW SEEN ROTATING BACK TO THE WEST...NORTH OF THE
LOW...PUSHING CLOUDS AND PCPN BACK TOWARDS NORTHEAST WI. WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN...OR MOVE INTO...THE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S OR
LOWER 50S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO THE 30S. SMALL PCPN CHANCES TODAY
REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD.
STACKED LOW TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SUN MORNING...DEEPENING
SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN PCPN TRENDS AT THIS
TIME...WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS GOING...FAR NE AND DOOR COUNTY
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BACKING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS LOWS
INFLUENCE DIMINISHES. AS IN PAST DAYS...MODELS SHOWING GOOD
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND HINT AT WEAK SFC TROF/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MOVING OVER CWA THIS AFTERNOON. PROBLEM WITH THIS
FORECAST IS AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING RATHER DEEP
MIXING FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WOULD LIMIT ANY SB INSTABILITY. WILL STAY
WITH MAINLY ISOLD POPS AND LIMIT THUNDER TO SOUTH.
HEIGHTS TO RISE AS RIDGE TO WEST BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.
HAVE HELD TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TODAY WITH CLOUDS...THOUGH
RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ON SUN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NGT THRU NXT FRI. MAIN FCST CONCERN REMAINS
THE EXTENT OF PCPN DURING THE PERIOD AND TRYING TO ATTEMPT TO
ASCERTAIN EXACTLY WHICH DAYS TO FOCUS ON. ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SCATTERED AT BEST. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE MUCH NXT WEEK WITH READINGS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
MDLS CONT TO INDICATE A MID-LVL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THRU THE CNTRL CONUS UPR RDG...THEN DIVING SE THRU THE UPR MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS/MIDWEST SUNDAY NGT. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM MN S-SE INTO IA
AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD HELP FOCUS THE SHWR POTENTIAL MORE TO OUR
SW IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS FEATURE IS NOW A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN LAST NGT`S MDL RUNS...THUS HAVE FOCUSED ANY PCPN TIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND PRIMARILY OVER CNTRL WI. THIS DELAY IN PCPN COULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF MORE DEGS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT WITH READINGS AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI.
WHILE THE SHORTWAVE CONTS TO TREK SE TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ON MON...THE MDLS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING SWD THRU THE
GREAT LKS AROUND THE LARGE ERN CONUS UPR TROF. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS TROF WITH DAYTIME HEATING (INCREASING INSTABILITY) WL HELP TO
DEVELOP SOME SHWR ACTIVITY ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM. MAX TEMPS
WL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST ANY PCPN CAN DEVELOP...THUS READINGS
COULD TOP OUT ANYWHERE IN THE 70S.
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF WL END ANY LINGERING SHWR THREAT MON EVENING. OTHERWISE...AN
AREA OF CANADIAN HI PRES IS FCST TO BEGIN DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LKS LATER MON NGT BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS. WE WL SEE MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S TO
THE MID 50S E-CNTRL WI.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS INTACT THRU THE
MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK WITH DEEP UPR TROFS OVER THE WRN U.S./ERN U.S.
AND A NARROW UPR RDG OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. NE WI TO
RESIDE ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE RDG...BUT ALSO SIT ON THE WRN FLANK
OF THE ERN U.S. UPR TROF. THIS LEAVES THE FCST AREA VULNERABLE TO
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROFS OR INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU
THE BADGER STATE AND KICKING OFF A FEW SHWRS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RUN FROM
TUE THRU AT LEAST THU BEFORE THE UPR RDG SLIDES FAR ENUF EAST TO
POTENTIALLY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE TIME FRI ROLLS AROUND. DUE
TO THE GENERAL UNCERTAINTY IN TRYING TO TIME EACH OF THESE LITTLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS...HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS MDL SOLUTION WHICH
POINTS TO LOW CHC POPS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS FOR
TEMPS...READINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT DUE TO LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIR MASS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO END UP CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS NXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO FAR NE WI...
ESPECIALLY DOOR COUNTY...THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DEEP MIXING. SOME
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE ADDED
VCSH FOR AUW/CWA/GRB/ATW.
TE
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
403 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. LAST PIECE OF
ENERGY NOW SEEN ROTATING BACK TO THE WEST...NORTH OF THE
LOW...PUSHING CLOUDS AND PCPN BACK TOWARDS NORTHEAST WI. WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN...OR MOVE INTO...THE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S OR
LOWER 50S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO THE 30S. SMALL PCPN CHANCES TODAY
REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD.
STACKED LOW TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SUN MORNING...DEEPENING
SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN PCPN TRENDS AT THIS
TIME...WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS GOING...FAR NE AND DOOR COUNTY
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BACKING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS LOWS
INFLUENCE DIMINISHES. AS IN PAST DAYS...MODELS SHOWING GOOD
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND HINT AT WEAK SFC TROF/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MOVING OVER CWA THIS AFTERNOON. PROBLEM WITH THIS
FORECAST IS AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING RATHER DEEP
MIXING FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS WOULD LIMIT ANY SB INSTABILITY. WILL STAY
WITH MAINLY ISOLD POPS AND LIMIT THUNDER TO SOUTH.
HEIGHTS TO RISE AS RIDGE TO WEST BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.
HAVE HELD TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TODAY WITH CLOUDS...THOUGH
RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ON SUN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NGT THRU NXT FRI. MAIN FCST CONCERN REMAINS
THE EXTENT OF PCPN DURING THE PERIOD AND TRYING TO ATTEMPT TO
ASCERTAIN EXACTLY WHICH DAYS TO FOCUS ON. ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SCATTERED AT BEST. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE MUCH NXT WEEK WITH READINGS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
MDLS CONT TO INDICATE A MID-LVL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THRU THE CNTRL CONUS UPR RDG...THEN DIVING SE THRU THE UPR MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS/MIDWEST SUNDAY NGT. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM MN S-SE INTO IA
AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD HELP FOCUS THE SHWR POTENTIAL MORE TO OUR
SW IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS FEATURE IS NOW A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN LAST NGT`S MDL RUNS...THUS HAVE FOCUSED ANY PCPN TIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND PRIMARILY OVER CNTRL WI. THIS DELAY IN PCPN COULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF MORE DEGS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT WITH READINGS AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI.
WHILE THE SHORTWAVE CONTS TO TREK SE TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ON MON...THE MDLS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING SWD THRU THE
GREAT LKS AROUND THE LARGE ERN CONUS UPR TROF. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS TROF WITH DAYTIME HEATING (INCREASING INSTABILITY) WL HELP TO
DEVELOP SOME SHWR ACTIVITY ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM. MAX TEMPS
WL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST ANY PCPN CAN DEVELOP...THUS READINGS
COULD TOP OUT ANYWHERE IN THE 70S.
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF WL END ANY LINGERING SHWR THREAT MON EVENING. OTHERWISE...AN
AREA OF CANADIAN HI PRES IS FCST TO BEGIN DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LKS LATER MON NGT BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS. WE WL SEE MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S TO
THE MID 50S E-CNTRL WI.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS INTACT THRU THE
MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK WITH DEEP UPR TROFS OVER THE WRN U.S./ERN U.S.
AND A NARROW UPR RDG OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. NE WI TO
RESIDE ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE RDG...BUT ALSO SIT ON THE WRN FLANK
OF THE ERN U.S. UPR TROF. THIS LEAVES THE FCST AREA VULNERABLE TO
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROFS OR INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU
THE BADGER STATE AND KICKING OFF A FEW SHWRS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RUN FROM
TUE THRU AT LEAST THU BEFORE THE UPR RDG SLIDES FAR ENUF EAST TO
POTENTIALLY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE TIME FRI ROLLS AROUND. DUE
TO THE GENERAL UNCERTAINTY IN TRYING TO TIME EACH OF THESE LITTLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS...HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS MDL SOLUTION WHICH
POINTS TO LOW CHC POPS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS FOR
TEMPS...READINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT DUE TO LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIR MASS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO END UP CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS NXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO FAR NE WI...
ESPECIALLY DOOR COUNTY...THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MARGINAL LLWS IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT APPEARS TO BE TOO BORDERLINE TO ADD TO THE 06Z TAFS.
WILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FOR SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
AND HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR AUW/CWA/GRB/ATW FROM MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS WILL ALSO TURN GUSTY BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS POSSIBLE. THE WIND
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
KIECKBUSCH
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
TE/KALLAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY CENTERED AROUND SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS ROTATING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH ND. COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE MICHIGAN LOW
WAS PRODUCING STEEP TEMPERATURES LAPSE RATES AND EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR QUIET AT THIS POINT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT ECHOES/SHOWERS INDICATED. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE UPSTREAM OVER ND WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO EASTERN NEB. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
01.12Z NCEP MODELS AND 01.09Z SREF SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS A BIT DEEPER WITH
THE MID-LEVEL WAVE ROTATING ACROSS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY FOR BETTER
SATURATION/RAINFALL POTENTIAL. GENERALLY WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND
AS A RESULT.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING THE WAVE OVER ND ROTATE SOUTHEAST
WHILE DAMPENING OUT SOME. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT SOUTHEAST
INTO IA BY 12Z. MOST OF THE FORCING...IE PV-ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT -SHRA CHANCES EXPECTED TO
BE TIED VERY CLOSE TO THE WAVE ITSELF AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA. HI-RES MESO MODELS ALSO SHOWS ACTIVITY REMAINING MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT -SHRA CHANCE
BASICALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AUSTIN MN TO OELWEIN IA AFTER 03Z
UNTIL 12Z. REST OF THE AREA/BASICALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES. THE CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FAIRLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FAVORED COLD SPOT AREAS SUCH AS
SPARTA/BLACK RIVER FALLS. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 40S.
FOR SATURDAY...CLOSED LOW WILL DEEPEN SOME OVER LAKE HURON.
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA
WITH 0-3KM MUCAPE AROUND 800J/KM AND MLCAPE AROUND 500J/KG. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SHRA CHANCES ALONG WITH ISOLD
THUNDER. NAM SHOWING ABOUT 15-16 PVU/S ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94 FOR PERHAPS A BETTER SHOT AT THUNDER
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WITH EXTENSIVE CUMULUS AND ISOLD/SCT SHRA
ACTIVITY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-94. LOOK FOR CLEARING
SKIES THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE REGION WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT FASTER/STRONGER WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
AFFECTS OF THIS WAVE WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD THUNDER. THIS WILL BE MANLY
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEILLSVILLE AND ARCADIA WI...TO CHARLES
CITY IA WHERE NOSE OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BE DIRECTED. LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ROTATE OVER/ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD THUNDER. HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S TO A FEW LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
01.12Z GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING WHERE
EXACTLY OMEGA BLOCK HIGH IS GOING TO SET UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED WITH EACH OTHER/S SOLUTION.
EITHER WAY...APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THIS
RIDGE/OMEGA BLOCK AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES. THIS YIELDS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1141 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THEM
TO REMAIN THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE REMAINING SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DECREASING TREND WHILE
MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. EVEN IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH
THE NIGHT...THEY WILL REMAIN WEST OF KRST AND THE SATELLITE LOOP
INDICATES THE CLOUDS WILL AS WELL. DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME PRETTY STEEP IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE
CLOUDS TO FORM. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER
WISCONSIN UNDER THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT...BUT EVEN THERE...THE
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
353 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA BUT THEY ARE CREEPING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. THUNDER IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF WHICH IS RIGHT IN
LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR MODEL SAID WAS GOING TO HAPPEN. ONCE THIS
LINE GETS SOUTH OF I20 SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1600 J/KG AND LIS IN THE -3
TO -6 RANGE. SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA AS THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE STATE. THIS
MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITIES
PEAKING BETWEEN 18Z-00Z AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND JUST INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNLIKE THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM DESPITE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM12 AND ECMWF DURING
THIS PERIOD ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING POPS BACK INTO NORTH
GEORGIA BUT FEEL WITH SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH PRIOR TO THE LONG
TERM...THE NORTHERN HALF SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT AND FAVOR THE GFS THIS
CYCLE. REGARDLESS...ALL MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING FOR VERY LOW END
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOES BUILD INTO THE
AREA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING TREND IN EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
DEESE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...TOUGH CALL TODAY AS FUEL MOISTURE IS LOW OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EXPECTING 15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. QUESTIONABLE HOWEVER WRT POP TIMING AND IF IT WILL RAIN
PRIOR TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. PLAYING IT SAFE THIS GO AROUND
AND HAVE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES BUT THAT WILL CHANGE
SOON AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE AREA. MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA STILL
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BUT THE LINE IS SLOWLY CREEPING SOUTHWARD.
HAVE INTRODUCED TSRA INTO ATL AREA TAF BETWEEN 0408/0411. THUNDER
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THAT SO ONLY GOING WITH SHOWERS 12Z TO 17Z.
WITH DAY TIME HEATING SHOULD SEE TSRA ACTIVITY PICK BACK UP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE W TO NW IN THE
5-10KT RANGE. EXPECTING GUST TO 20KT BETWEEN 17Z-23Z. VSBYS SHOULD
STAY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSRA DEVELOPMENT. CEILINGS SHOULD DO
THE SAME AS WELL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 84 65 86 62 / 50 40 20 20
ATLANTA 84 67 84 64 / 40 40 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 81 59 80 55 / 70 40 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 82 63 85 57 / 70 50 20 10
COLUMBUS 89 69 90 68 / 40 40 40 20
GAINESVILLE 84 65 82 62 / 70 50 20 20
MACON 87 67 90 66 / 40 40 40 20
ROME 85 65 85 59 / 70 50 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 84 64 84 61 / 40 40 30 20
VIDALIA 89 71 88 69 / 50 40 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1206 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BASED
ON LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. RAP AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL PLACES
PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST-SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN AN AREA WHERE
SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG, AND 0-6KM SHEAR
RANGED 30-40KTS. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER. BASED ON 0-6KM SHEAR AND GOOD INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH NEAR THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES IT STILL APPEARS THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL
FLOW NEAR THE DRY LINE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BRIEFLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE
CONVECTION APPEARS MOST LIKELY AND LOWERED/REMOVED PRECIPITATION
FURTHER NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
ALTHOUGH A MEAN RIDGING PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND ROCKIES REGIONS, A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL 700 MB
TROUGH IS STILL IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KANSAS, SLOWLY MAKING A
TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN THE WIND FIELD AND THE MODELS TEND TO
FAVOR THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
DRIVES THE CAPE UP INTO THE 3500 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SB CAPE VALUES MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVEN`T BEEN WARMING AS FAST AS FORECAST GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE AREA. ALSO, THE WRF/NMM RUNS AND THE HRRR ARE ONCE AGAIN
OFFERING VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
LATER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION, DRIVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
GIVEN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT, HIGH CAPE - STRONG MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY, AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY, VERY LARGE HAIL
WOULD SEEM TO BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THERE
DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENTIAL IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MEAN WINDS, AND AT THIS POINT WE`LL MAINTAIN MAX HAIL SIZE AT
GOLF BALLS. LOCAL SEVERE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS ZONE, AND HEAVY WATER
LOADED STORMS SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE.
GIVEN THAT THE WRF/NMM WAS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
IT IS POSSIBLE THE LIFT MIGHT NOT BE SUFFICIENT AND IS NOT
OVERTAKING THE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AT AROUND 11 DEGREES
C. THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE ONLY MODE OF FAILURE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
AFTER ANY POTENTIAL STORMS EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT, A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTH EAST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES
BEHIND A DRYLINE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE PANHANDLES. NAM HAS
MODELED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE RECENT FORECASTS,
LIKELY OWING TO INCREASED RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER FROM
CONVECTION AS WELL AS SPILLING INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM CENTRAL
ROCKIES ORTHOGRAPHIC LIFT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AREA BY TUESDAY. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR COLORADO AND
OKLAHOMA BORDER AREAS BY 12Z TUESDAY AND PUSH A LITTLE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR A GARDEN CITY TO ASHLAND LINE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
WILL BE HOT TO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S IN
MOST LOCALS. THIS SURFACE HEATING COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW
STORMS NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IS ONLY WORTHY OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL WAVE COMES EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOW DOWN HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY, AND AS THAT FRONT RETREATS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT, THE
UPPER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE COULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN A FEW STORMS IF THEY GET GOING. THEREFORE, 30 POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER OUR WESTERN 2/3RD OF THE CWA, BASICALLY
WEST OF A WAKEENEY TO MEADE LINE. SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM, BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS 4 DAYS OUR. WILL ONLY
GO WITH 20 POPS EAST OF THAT WAKEENEY TO MEADE LINE. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE PLAYING WITH AN AFTERNOON DRY LINE MARCHING EAST
DURING THE DAY AND THEN RETREATING TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING
AND EARLY NIGHT PERIOD. CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL IN
OUR EAST NEAR WHERE THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE, EAST OF
COLDWATER TO HAYS LINE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
EXAMINED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO 20
PERCENT ON THURSDAY NIGHT, AS FORCING WILL BE MUCH LESS. FRIDAY
STILL WILL SEE A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTH AND A DRY LINE COME INTO
PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO SMALL POPS ARE IN FRO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT. A LARGE, WARM UPPER
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DO A BIT OF A YO-YOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL START TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S, DIP TO THE
THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BE ABOUT THE SAME ON
THURSDAY IN THE MID 80S, THEN START ON A WARMING TREND FRIDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WARM TO THE LOWER
90S SATURDAY AND WOULD RISE EVEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN START TO INCREASE INTO THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY AS THE WARM UPPER HIGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST
STARTS BUILDING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGH
CLOUDS AOA250. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 90 65 86 / 10 10 20 20
GCK 64 90 64 86 / 20 20 30 30
EHA 63 86 63 87 / 30 30 30 30
LBL 64 88 65 86 / 20 20 30 30
HYS 64 90 64 86 / 10 10 20 20
P28 67 89 66 86 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1109 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER CONSISTING OF ONLY
SOME PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AND MAYBE A FEW FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS ON MONDAY. AS FAR AS TYPICAL CAVEATS TO THIS BENIGN
FORECAST GO...REALLY DON/T SEE ANY REASON WHY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP INTO THE AREA WITH SUCH LIMITED FORCING...AND ALSO FEEL
THAT LIGHT BREEZES SHOULD STAY UP JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY LIGHT FOG/HAZE FROM FORMING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SPEAKING OF BREEZES...SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AT/BELOW 10KT THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH DIRECTION GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM
NORTHERLY TONIGHT...NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND THEN EASTERLY
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
UPDATE...JUST COMPLETED AN EVENING FORECAST UPDATE ADDRESSING THE
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z. AS SUSPECTED A FEW HOURS AGO...STORMS
WERE ULTIMATELY NOT ABLE TO GET GOING ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT NOW ROUGHLY BISECTS THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST. ALSO...MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS STILL ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AT
LEAST 1-2 COUNTIES WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...OR UNTIL
THEY ULTIMATELY FADE AWAY. BOTTOM LINE IS...HAVE NO THUNDERSTORM
MENTION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON THE LARGER SCALE
PICTURE...EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL DATA
DEPICTS THE PRIMARY REGIONAL SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST NOW WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS...WHILE OFF TO THE WEST...THE
PRONOUNCED RIDGE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO
BECOME EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CWA ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY. ALTHOUGH HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION SOMETIMES HAS A WAY OF SNEAKING FARTHER EAST THAN
EXPECTED...THE FACT THAT STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THAT LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE AT THE
850MB LEVEL CLEARLY CONTINUES TO FOCUS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA...JUST DON/T SEE ENOUGH REASON TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR
THE LATE NIGHT 06Z-12Z PERIOD. TEMP-WISE...TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS
VERY SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY DOWNWARD 1-2 DEGREES AT MOST IN SOME
AREAS WITH EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LATEST TRENDS
FROM HOURLY GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
UPDATE...JUST SENT A NEW ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT...FOR THE SOLE
PURPOSE OF PURGING LATE AFTERNOON WORDING FROM THE PRODUCT. MADE
NO CHANGES WHATSOEVER YET TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT GRIDS...AND
WILL LIKELY ADDRESS THAT WITH AN UPDATE IN A FEW HOURS. AM KEEPING
AN EYE ON A NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CURRENTLY STRETCHED
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR GOTHENBURG TO ALBION FOR POSSIBLE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...BUT SO FAR IT HAS
REMAINED VERY SHALLOW AND CAPPED. THIS LINE OF CUMULUS LINES UP
QUITE WELL WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 3/4 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT EVEN THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROG SUGGESTS THAT
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS INCOMING BOUNDARY SHOULD BE QUITE
SPARSE...IF IT EVEN OCCURS AT ALL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS
RELEGATED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AS A RESULT. DESPITE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
INDICATE A COUPLE WARM CORE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH...AS OF 18Z...WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KONL...TO NEAR KLXN AND
KMCK...TO EAST OF KGLD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN
LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUDS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND FOR A SHORT WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON KUEX WAS INDICATING WEAK RETURNS FROM KODX TO
KBBW...ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND RAP ALL INDICATE CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND BROAD-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL
REMAIN WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE CWA PER THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AN RAP ALL INDICATE
AN ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BEING REALIZED. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC ALL SUGGEST INCREASED VALUES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND SOMEWHAT INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 2000J/KG...WITH THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTING THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
2500-3000J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
SREF-MEAN...NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...RAP...AND SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALL SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DETERMINING IF/WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE REALIZED IS TOUGH ENOUGH...BUT DETERMINING
WHETHER OR NOT SAID CONVECTION WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED IS EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT. AS ALREADY MENTIONED...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BECOMING A REALITY...BUT THE OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS COOLING
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850MB AND 750MB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT GIVEN THE
HIGH VALUES OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD MUCH
RATHER PLAY IT SAFE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WITH SEVERE WORDING INCLUDED...STARTING 22Z FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KMCK...TO NEAR KEAR...AND SOUTHEAST OF KODX.
THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALSO SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND THUS WILL ALSO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN
OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING SHOULD PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER TIME AS WEAK SHORT WAVES TRY TO
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HOTTER THAN
NORMAL WITH SOME LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENTS IN THE PERIOD...AND IT
APPEARS THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
TUESDAY...HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
STILL HOLDING STRONG. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY...EXPECT TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY
ABOUT THE SAME AS ON MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LOW END CHANCES
OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHEN IT COMES TO THE
DETAILS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE SCALE
STORM SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON DIURNAL
HEATING...AND POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS MCS FORMATION OR OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AT
THE START OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR
COVERAGE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/UPDATES...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
206 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER MID TO LATE WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING
NEAR-TERM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN TIGHTENED OVERNITE RESULTING WITH
SW-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AS A RESULT...THE MIN TEMP FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER MIN
TEMPS FROM MOS GUIDANCE. WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID OR
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE DISSIPATING
MCS OVER NORTHERN GA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE MUCH STRONGER
MCS OVER WEST TENNESSEE COULD BECOME A NUISANCE TO OUR MOST SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE ILM CWA. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED LOW POPS IN THIS
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...2 PRIMARY FEATURES IMPACT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WEATHER...MCS ENERGY DROPPING SE ALONG AN UPSTREAM THICKNESS RIDGE
AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY. POTENTIAL MCS CONVECTION
APPEARS TARGETED OVER THE FFC/CHS FORECAST AREA JUST SOUTH OF OUR
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POP VALUES IN THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY APPEAR WARRANTED...FAVORED OVER SC. SPC HAS PAINTED A
SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST SOUTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...TIMED NEARLY WITH PEAK HEATING.
IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SE OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INLAND...TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY ALONG
THE COAST. COLUMN MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SCANT BY THIS TIME AND
POP VALUES WERE HELD IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH A
SHOWER COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE.
MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S. COOLER TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. MIN TEMPS
MAY BE REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY NIGHT WITH DEBRIS OR CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS. COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY
A 59-67 DEGREE RANGE...MILDEST SOUTH COAST AND COOLEST NORTHERN
INTERIOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT TROUGINESS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL MAKE BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES BE THE MAIN CHARACTERISTIC OF
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN STALLED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WELL...AND THIS COULD SERVE
AS A SOURCE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY HOLD TRUE
SHOULD ANY OF THE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA INDUCE A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODELS FINALLY BACKING AWAY FROM
THIS IDEA NOW HOWEVER AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A MINOR ROLE
IN THE FORECAST AT BEST. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME
VERY FLAT SURFACE WAVES RIPPLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THESE LOWS
REMAIN QUITE FLAT SINCE THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER SHORTWAVES
WED. THURSDAYS SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE TRAVELING OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE
HIGH AND MAY ONLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. THE LAST BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD COME THROUGH ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT AGREEING WHETHER ITS THE LAST TO CROSS
THE LANDMASS OR THE FIRST TO DIVE SOUTH OFF THE COAST AS THE MEAN
TROUGH IS ALREADY IN A STATE OF LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST. BARRING
THIS TIMING QUIBBLE THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RISING HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST FOR A QUICK RETURN TO
CLIMO TEMPS OR ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS. A MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL TURN WESTERLY
AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTER DAYBREAK
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE FRONT DIPS SOUTHWARD
UNDERNEATH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO COVERAGE...SO WILL GO WITH VCTS AT THIS
TIME. SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...GUSTY AT TIMES BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS EARLY MORNING NEAR-TERM
UPDATE IS TO RAISE WIND SPEEDS A BIT ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES
NEAR CAPE FEAR WHERE THE OCEAN CREST PIER WIND GAUGE IS REPORTING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS CURRENTLY. THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE
WILL OBVIOUSLY REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT A
FOOT LOWER THAN FORECASTS...BUT THIS SEAS WILL PROBABLY BUILD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE WATERS BETWEEN
SURF CITY NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING DUE TO THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A LOW LEVEL JET. LATEST HRRR SFC WIND
FIELD ILLUSTRATES THIS NICELY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
OCCASIONALLY 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ILM NC WATERS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT FOR
THE ILM NC WATERS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 5 TO 7 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NO WIND AND SEA HAZARDS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.
TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES OVER SC...THUS IT SEEMS THE SOUTH COAST
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A TSTM. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE
OVER THE WATERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO N
AND NE TUESDAY. WINDS HOWEVER LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY OR EVEN
CAUTIONARY SPEEDS. SEAS PRIMARILY CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT S-SW
CHOP MIXED WITH WEAK ESE-SE SWELL. AGAIN MAIN HAZARD...TSTMS OVER
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT. WITH NW STEERING FLOW/STORM MOTION
ANY SEA BREEZE ERUPTIONS COULD FEASIBLY APPROACH THE INNER WATERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
DUE TO FLAT AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL BACK THE OTHERWISE E/NE WINDS SLIGHTLY OVER NRN ZONES AND MORE
NOTICEABLY OVER SRN WATERS WHERE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT MAY BE
INTRODUCED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD A NE WIND WILL CONTINUE
AS THE FRONT SITS OFF TO THE SOUTH. SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
COMPRISED OF WIND WAVES AS OPPOSED TO SWELLS. WITH WINDS GENERALLY
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 2 TO 3
FT...OCCASIONALLY 4 FT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS/EASTERNMOST REACHES
OF FCST AREA. ON FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD SAG FURTHER SOUTH IN A
WEAKENING STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO OOZE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND/SEAS WILL ABATE BY
APPROXIMATELY 5KT/1FT RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA/DCH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
132 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA WILL
DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH
PRESSURE RESULTING IN ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS.
NORTH WINDS WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...BRINGING IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CLOUDS ARE DECREASING OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA. THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN
THE CLE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME CLOUDS ARE IN THAT AREA...SO
BECAUSE OF THAT LEFT A 20 POP IN FOR THAT AREA.
FOR NORTHWEST OHIO SOME CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR...SO
ADDED THAT.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY EXCEPT IN NW PA WHERE THEY ARE
LIKELY TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE ONCE THE VORT MAX SINKS SOUTHWEST. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AGAIN
NOT EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE. THE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN MORE OVER
THE REGION BY TUE AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR PLEASANT WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S EAST TO THE LOWER 80S WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. WE WILL BE IN A LULL BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND THE LINGERING LOW ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LOW CHANCES. REMOVED THE PREDOMINATE THUNDER MENTION
FROM ERI/YNG. SREF INDICATING A LOWER CHANCE THAN YESTERDAY FOR TS
AND FOR NOW CHANCES TOO LOW TO PUT INTO THE TAF. LIGHTER /8-12
KTS/ NORTHERLY FLOW AND NOT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS.
VFR...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS
NW PA/NE OH.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NY WILL BE ABSORBED BY LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ONTO THE LAKE
TONIGHT IT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE. AM SLIGHTLY CONCERNED
THAT THE WESTERLY WINDS MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING LONGER FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. GENERALLY
FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. IF IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED BY LATER SHIFTS
IT WILL LIKELY ONLY GO THROUGH 4 AM.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SURFACE GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY TO BRING BACK SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
NORTHEAST FLOW THIS TIME WOULD MAKE THE WESTERN BASIN AT LEAST
CHOPPY. BY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN INTO CONTROL
INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
507 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND PARK OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
MIDWEST WITH CLEARING AND WARMER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW IS ELONGATED BUT ONE CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE
OVER BGM THIS AM...AND ON TRACK TO CONSOLIDATE OVER CAPE COD THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG VORT MAX HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF THE STATE
ALREADY AND FEW CLOUDS FOUND IN THE SRN COS. BUT LOW STRATUS IS
FOUND UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND FORMING/SPREADING SWRD WITH THE
HELP OF TOPO LIFT AND NRLY FLOW/COLD ADVECTION WILL COVER THE NRN
HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
DOWN...BUT MORE SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE DOWN THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MEAGER CAPE PER LATEST RUC AND NAM
SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS-INTENSE SHOWERS AND LESS
AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THAN ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO MUCH
WEAKER WITH ONLY 20-25KTS OUT OF THE NORTH EXPECTED FROM THE SFC
TO CLOUD TOPS THIS AFTN/EVENING. STILL...SCT SHRA AND EVEN ISOLD
TSRA ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE AREA. BETTER/MORE-WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE EAST - CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. MAXES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S NUMBERS WITH
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND WEAK COLD TO NEUTRAL AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...SOME WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE NE-SW
AS THE MEAN MID-LEVEL WIND VEERS OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ALONG THE NE COAST
FOR THE PERIOD...AND NEARLY IDENTICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH
24HR CYCLE. SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVE. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN A
BIT FOR EACH OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS FAR ENOUGH AWAY THE
AIR WILL MODIFY/WARM JUST SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. BUT THESE WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL AT FIRST AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRI...BUT ACCOMPANYING LARGE TROUGH
WILL KEEP COOL NW FLOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER INTO THU AS BACK EDGE OF TROUGH
/AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK SHORTWAVE/ PUSH THROUGH. TEMPS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY FRI AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNINGS WILL BE CHILLY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS
FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FOR SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTIONS AND WILL
SHORTLY PASS EAST OF KMDT AND KLNS...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 07Z. WITH MOIST WNW UPSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AIRFIELDS OF KBFD AND KJST
OVERNIGHT. IF WINDS SLACKEN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR FOG CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS AS WELL
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS...EXCEPT FOR KIPT WHERE
MVFR FOG AND CIGS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED.
SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
MOUNTAINS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
FRI...AM VALLEY FOG AND IFR POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1158 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A MIX OF
MVFR/VFR FROM 09Z TO 14Z...WITH ENSUING VFR ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN
15Z AND 17Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO
INFILTRATE AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY LOW CLD
DECK DVLPMENT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH COVERAGE AND CIGS AT
MVFR LEVELS. WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...DENSE CI FROM CONVECTION OVER
OLD MEX. LOW CLOUD DECK WITH MVFR CIGS MAY DVLP AT KLRD AROUND
SUNRISE MON MRNG. MVFR CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY
MON WITH VFR PREVAILING MON AFTN ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SE WINDS TONIGHT AS SRLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. MODERATE AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SE WINDS DAYLIGHT HRS MON. TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN OVER NE MEXICO LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HENCE...PUT
VCTS IN LAREDO TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEBILITATE AND ERODE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AS THEY APPROACH THE MEXICAN STATE OF
TAMAULIPAS. THE CAP IS MARKEDLY MORE PRONOUNCED NEAR THE BORDER AS
THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH 700 MB TEMPS A WARM
12C. DID LEAVE A 10 PERCENT SILENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RIO
GRANDE WITH HRRR SHOWING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING BETWEEN
LAREDO AND RIO BRAVO AROUND MIDNIGHT. DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS...BY NUDGING UP MINIMUM TEMPS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH THICK LAYER OF CIRROFORM CLOUDS IN CONCERT WITH STRATUS
DEVELOPING AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ONGOING FCST HAS ONGOING ELEMENT TRENDS GOING VERY WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR ALL TERMINALS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THEN MIX OF
MVFR/VFR THRU MID/LATE MRNG MON...FOLLOWED BY VFR ALL TERMINALS
MON AFTN. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO SKIRT ACROSS KCRP/KVCT/KALI
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY LOW CLD DECK DVLPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH
COVERAGE AND CIGS AT MVFR LEVELS. KLRD TO XPRIENCE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING WITH DENSE CI POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION OVER OLD
MEX. LOW CLOUD DECK WITH MVFR CIGS MAY DVLP AT KLRD AROUND SUNRISE
MON MRNG. MVFR CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY MON WITH
VFR PREVAILING MON AFTN ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS
TONIGHT AS SRLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. MODERATE AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SE WINDS DAYLIGHT HRS MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 91 75 92 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
VICTORIA 74 93 74 94 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
LAREDO 79 102 77 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 75 97 74 96 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 80 89 79 88 78 / 10 10 10 20 10
COTULLA 77 99 74 98 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 95 76 94 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 90 79 88 77 / 10 10 10 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SC/70...AVIATION
TB/78...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
IOWA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN AREA OF 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS NOTED ON THE
03.03Z RAP.
03.00Z MODELS OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
ONLY DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF WEAK FORCING SIGNALS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. RAP ALSO INDICATES THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. DID PLACE
A LOWER END PROBABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH 15Z TO COVER THE
DEPARTING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LATER TODAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME VERY WEAK
850-700MB QG CONVERGENCE WILL INTERACT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF
500 J/KG-1000 J/KG TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID CONTINUE CHANCES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER THAT.
DEPENDING UP HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY AND HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FOG POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT VORTICITY IS MORE CHANNELED WITH THIS FEATURE. ONCE
AGAIN MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES ACROSS WISCONSIN.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE SOME WEAK CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA AND THUS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
HIGH THEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR DRY WEATHER. AS THE
RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE RIDGE WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN IT
OUT...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOWARDS THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF IT WILL
RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY BY SUNDAY FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IOWA. THE LOW HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND THIS EVENING AND HAS ONLY MOVED FROM THE
VICINITY OF KSUX TO NEAR KDNS. THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW AND THE 04.00Z
RUN CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SLOW SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT THROUGH MONDAY.
AS THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE OF 2
TO 3 UBAR/S ON THE 305K WILL SINK SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AS
WILL THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850 MB. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUT
AN END TO THE SHOWERS BUT WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HOLD ON TO
VCSH FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD AS WELL SHOWING A MORE SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. WILL ALSO HOLD ON TO THE VFR CEILING WITH THESE CLOUDS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ANY
FOG AT EITHER SITE...BUT WITH KRST BEING CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON TO A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY WITH
SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE MORE DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM
AGAIN LATE MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WELL BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...RABERDING
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
451 AM MDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
...MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND UTAH THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING AS
A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST
COAST AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH SATELLITE AND EVEN RADAR IMAGERY TRACKING A DISTINCT
CIRCULATION (MCV) WHICH HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY AND
INTO CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDERNEATH
RIDGE EVIDENT WITH HIGHER MTN OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG WITH MORE VARIABLE
READINGS FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT DEW PTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE IN THE
20S AND 30S AND MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...WITH
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MTS...OWNING TO ENHANCED
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOLAR HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH
LATEST MODELS DIFFERING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTNS AND PLAINS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NSSL
AND LOCAL WRFS HAVE CONVECTION TIED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THEN HELPING TO
FIRE CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM AND THE 06Z HRRR HAVE CONVECTION
FIRING BETWEEN 15Z-18Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS...AND THEN DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME CONVECTION HANGING ON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN TX AND OK PANHANDLE. WITH THAT SAID AND
THE MCV CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HAVE TAILORED
CURRENT FORECAST CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH BASED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ARE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HIGHS DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS NEAR AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
MILD SIDE ONCE AGAIN. -MW
.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WHILE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASES. APPEARS WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH STORMS
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INITIALLY...THEN DRIFTING EAST ON TO THE
PLAINS BY EVENING. SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS LOW...THOUGH A FEW NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AS KCOS GUSTED TO 47 KNOTS IN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT
YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS TUES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COOL SLIGHTLY OVER
THE EAST AS 700 MB TEMPS FALL 1-2C...WHILE READINGS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT.
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY APPROACH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DEEP MIXING TAPS STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...THOUGH SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO STAY JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
HIGHLIGHT THRESHOLDS. OVER THE PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE EAST OF I-25...WITH RISK OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TSRA
CONTINUING INTO WED EVENING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY WED
MOST LOCATIONS...AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THU INTO FRI...WITH AREA
REMAINING UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW BOTH DAYS. VERY
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOISTURE
LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS DRYLINE STAYS MAINLY ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE KS BORDER. TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA
BOTH DAYS OVER THE PLAINS...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE EAST OF
I-25. UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE...WHICH MAY FINALLY FLUSH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BOTH SAT/SUN. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE SAT INTO
SUN AS UPPER JET ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM...BEFORE COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS AREA-WIDE
BY MON AFTERNOON. --PETERSEN
&&
.AVIATION...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE STATE WILL WILL FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. -TSRA SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE MORNING AND DRIFT OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS AND VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE TERMINALS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. -MW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1059 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME BREAKING UP OF CLOUDS TRAILING THE PRECIP
IN THE NORTH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND KEPT HIGH END
CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER 18Z AS HRRR AND NAM BOTH POINT AT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPS HAVE TRENDED DECENTLY
COOLER DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SO HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS DOWN
ABOUT 4 DEGREES. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA BUT THEY ARE CREEPING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. THUNDER IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF WHICH IS RIGHT IN
LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR MODEL SAID WAS GOING TO HAPPEN. ONCE THIS
LINE GETS SOUTH OF I20 SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1600 J/KG AND LIS IN THE -3
TO -6 RANGE. SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA AS THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE STATE. THIS
MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITIES
PEAKING BETWEEN 18Z-00Z AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND JUST INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNLIKE THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM DESPITE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM12 AND ECMWF DURING
THIS PERIOD ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING POPS BACK INTO NORTH
GEORGIA BUT FEEL WITH SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH PRIOR TO THE LONG
TERM...THE NORTHERN HALF SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT AND FAVOR THE GFS THIS
CYCLE. REGARDLESS...ALL MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING FOR VERY LOW END
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOES BUILD INTO THE
AREA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING TREND IN EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
DEESE
FIRE WEATHER...TOUGH CALL TODAY AS FUEL MOISTURE IS LOW OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EXPECTING 15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. QUESTIONABLE HOWEVER WRT POP TIMING AND IF IT WILL RAIN
PRIOR TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. PLAYING IT SAFE THIS GO AROUND
AND HAVE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN PLACE.
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT IN AND
AROUND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SPLIT AND
IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY MISS THE ATL AREA. IF IT DOES HIT THE ATL
AREA AIRPORTS IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF. THE THUNDERSTORMS IN AL ALSO
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MOVE SOUTH O ATL AS WELL. WINDS WILL STAY OUT
OF THE W TO NW IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. EXPECTING GUST TO 18KT
BETWEEN 17Z-23Z. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. CEILINGS SHOULD DO THE SAME AS WELL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 80 65 86 62 / 60 40 20 20
ATLANTA 80 67 84 64 / 50 40 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 77 59 80 55 / 80 40 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 78 63 85 57 / 80 50 20 10
COLUMBUS 85 69 90 68 / 80 40 40 20
GAINESVILLE 80 65 82 62 / 80 50 20 20
MACON 83 67 90 66 / 80 40 40 20
ROME 81 65 85 59 / 80 50 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 80 64 84 61 / 80 40 30 20
VIDALIA 85 71 88 69 / 80 40 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03/01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
751 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA BUT THEY ARE CREEPING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. THUNDER IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF WHICH IS RIGHT IN
LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR MODEL SAID WAS GOING TO HAPPEN. ONCE THIS
LINE GETS SOUTH OF I20 SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1600 J/KG AND LIS IN THE -3
TO -6 RANGE. SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA AS THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE STATE. THIS
MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITIES
PEAKING BETWEEN 18Z-00Z AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND JUST INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNLIKE THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM DESPITE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM12 AND ECMWF DURING
THIS PERIOD ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING POPS BACK INTO NORTH
GEORGIA BUT FEEL WITH SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH PRIOR TO THE LONG
TERM...THE NORTHERN HALF SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT AND FAVOR THE GFS THIS
CYCLE. REGARDLESS...ALL MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING FOR VERY LOW END
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOES BUILD INTO THE
AREA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING TREND IN EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
DEESE
FIRE WEATHER...TOUGH CALL TODAY AS FUEL MOISTURE IS LOW OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EXPECTING 15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. QUESTIONABLE HOWEVER WRT POP TIMING AND IF IT WILL RAIN
PRIOR TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. PLAYING IT SAFE THIS GO AROUND
AND HAVE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT IN AND
AROUND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SPLIT AND
IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY MISS THE ATL AREA. IF IT DOES HIT THE ATL
AREA AIRPORTS IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF. THE THUNDERSTORMS IN AL ALSO
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MOVE SOUTH O ATL AS WELL. WINDS WILL STAY OUT
OF THE W TO NW IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. EXPECTING GUST TO 18KT
BETWEEN 17Z-23Z. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. CEILINGS SHOULD DO THE SAME AS WELL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 84 65 86 62 / 60 40 20 20
ATLANTA 84 67 84 64 / 60 40 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 81 59 80 55 / 80 40 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 82 63 85 57 / 80 50 20 10
COLUMBUS 89 69 90 68 / 60 40 40 20
GAINESVILLE 84 65 82 62 / 80 50 20 20
MACON 87 67 90 66 / 60 40 40 20
ROME 85 65 85 59 / 80 50 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 84 64 84 61 / 60 40 30 20
VIDALIA 89 71 88 69 / 70 40 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1006 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
THE FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. THE NARROW
BAND OF SHRA ACTIVITY FROM THE QUAD CITIES ON SOUTHEAST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE/FORCING PER THE LIFT TOOL.
THE LIFT TOOL WEAKENS THIS AREA AND HAS IT MOVE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THUS THE SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD END AROUND
MID DAY.
THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
WILL BE ACHIEVED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAP TRENDS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WHICH IS THE FCST MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. THE WEAK INVERTED
TROF ACROSS THE AREA WOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SFC CONVERGENCE
TO GET SOMETHING GOING. SO...THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IT MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ..08..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
AVIATION... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER LOCAL MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SCT SHRA FOUND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM KMLI AND
KBRL ON TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DVLPMNT POSSIBLE WITH
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS
MAINLY WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RVR. WILL HAVE VCSH AT KMLI/KBRL THIS
MORNING BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW IN INCLUDE AT KCID/KDBQ FOR NOW. EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY THEN EAST LESS THAN 5
KNOTS TONIGHT. ON A SIDE NOTE HAVE ADDED AMD NOT SKED TO KDBQ
TERMINAL WITH MULTIPLE SENSORS NOT REPORTING AND WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS USE CAUTION.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
737 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ALREADY DIMINISHING FROM THE NORTH AND
CURRENTLY WERE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
61. IN OTHER WORDS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WERE IN WESTERN IL. THE
THUNDER HAS ENDED AND HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE
CHANGES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE NOTED IN OUR SW COUNTIES BUT EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER EXISTED ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE HRRR MESO MODEL HAS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
EXITING THE CWA BY 15Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER LOCAL
MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SCT SHRA FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM KMLI AND KBRL ON TO THE
EAST. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DVLPMNT POSSIBLE WITH HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS MAINLY WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RVR. WILL HAVE VCSH AT KMLI/KBRL THIS MORNING BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW IN INCLUDE AT KCID/KDBQ FOR NOW. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY THEN EAST LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
TONIGHT. ON A SIDE NOTE HAVE ADDED AMD NOT SKED TO KDBQ TERMINAL
WITH MULTIPLE SENSORS NOT REPORTING AND WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS USE
CAUTION.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1015 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS
MRNG BEFORE MOVING GRADUALLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN AND
TNGT.
PREV THOUGHT PROCESS HAS NOT CHGD. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER WRN NY ERY THIS MRNG WILL DIVE SEWD THRU THE NRN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. SIMILAR TO YDA...POP-UP SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND ERY EVE AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AS
ERY AS THE LATE MRNG OVER NRN MD AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NORTH AND EAST OF
THE POTOMAC DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LVLS BETWEEN -5C
AND -15C LATE THIS AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HRS.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTN. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NRN MD TO NEAR
80F IN CENTRAL VA.
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TNGT. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVNGT FOR NRN MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THRU MID-WK...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN NLY-NWLY H5 FLOW OVER MID-ATLC RGN. SVRL SHRTWV
TROFS WILL MOVE THRU THIS FLOW TUE AND WED...LEADING TO MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHWRS OWING TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. INSTBY XPCD TO
BE SHALLOW ON TUE...SO TSTMS NOT XPCD.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHRTWV TROF ON WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCRD
LOW-LVL MSTR AHD OF APRCHG CDFNT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE GREATER CHC
FOR TSTMS.
UNUSUALLY COOL MAXIMA IN THE LWR 70S XPCD TUE AND WED...WITH
MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY IN CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE WK WHILE NERN
CONUS UPR LOW SHIFTS EWD. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLC
RGN FRI AND SAT...EFFECTIVELY LMTG ANY PCPN CHCS.
SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS SRN NY/CNTRL PA ON SUN. MSTR XPCD TO
INCR AHD OF THIS WAVE AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE RGN. AS A RESULT...
TSTMS MAY DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY SUN EVE...WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD
INTO FCST AREA. ONLY CHG TO POPS IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE SLGT
CHC TSTMS DURG SUN NGT PD.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WK AS UPR RDG MOVES
CLOSER. MAXIMA NR OR SLGTLY ABV NRML CAN BE XPCD DURG THE WKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WLY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL
VEER TO NWLY THIS AFTN AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU. BREEZY WINDS
TDA WILL GUST 20-25 KT. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA TO IMPACT BWI/MTN. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS CAN BE XPCD TUE AND WED. IT IS NOT PSBL ATTM
TO IDENTIFY WHETHER THESE WOULD IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
CLDS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST WED NGT...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
RMN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TDA...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT
EXPECTED. WLY WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...BECOMING NWLY BY THIS
AFTN. DESPITE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
LOCALIZED 30 KT OR HIGHER WIND GUST TDA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN
THE AFTN WHEN THE WIND FIELD IS THE STRONGEST.
SMALL CRAFT ADZY WAS RETAINED THRU MID-DAY TUE OWING TO NLY
CHANNELING PSBLTY. WIND WILL BCM LGT THEREAFTER. NO SGFNT MARINE
HAZARDS XPCD THRU RMNDR OF WK OWING TO APRCHG SFC HIPRES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CSTL FLOOD ADVYS HV EXPIRED...BUT ELEV WATER LVLS REMAIN.
DEPARTURES ARND ONE-HALF FT-- NOT ENUF TO EXCEED THRESHOLDS FOR THE
LWR SEMIDIURNAL TIDE OF THE DAY /WHICH IS IN THE PM/ BUT ENUF TO
CAUSE CONCERNS FOR THE HIGHER MRNG TIDE. ADVYS MAY BE REQD AGAIN
FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS...SPCLY IN THE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
535-536-538-542.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HTS/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KRAMAR
LONG TERM...KRAMAR
AVIATION...KLEIN/KRAMAR
MARINE...KLEIN/KRAMAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/JE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
614 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS
MRNG BEFORE MOVING GRADUALLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN AND
TNGT. EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
MRNG.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN NY ERY THIS MRNG WILL
DIVE SEWD THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. SIMILAR TO YDA...POP-
UP SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND
ERY EVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY
DEVELOP AS ERY AS THE LATE MRNG OVER NRN MD AS LIFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NORTH
AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LVLS BETWEEN -5C
AND -15C LATE THIS AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HRS.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTN. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NRN MD TO NEAR
80F IN CENTRAL VA.
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TNGT. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVNGT FOR NRN MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THRU MID-WK...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN NLY-NWLY H5 FLOW OVER MID-ATLC RGN. SVRL SHRTWV
TROFS WILL MOVE THRU THIS FLOW TUE AND WED...LEADING TO MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHWRS OWING TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. INSTBY XPCD TO
BE SHALLOW ON TUE...SO TSTMS NOT XPCD.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHRTWV TROF ON WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCRD
LOW-LVL MSTR AHD OF APRCHG CDFNT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE GREATER CHC
FOR TSTMS.
UNUSUALLY COOL MAXIMA IN THE LWR 70S XPCD TUE AND WED...WITH
MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY IN CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE WK WHILE NERN
CONUS UPR LOW SHIFTS EWD. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLC
RGN FRI AND SAT...EFFECTIVELY LMTG ANY PCPN CHCS.
SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS SRN NY/CNTRL PA ON SUN. MSTR XPCD TO
INCR AHD OF THIS WAVE AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE RGN. AS A RESULT...
TSTMS MAY DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY SUN EVE...WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD
INTO FCST AREA. ONLY CHG TO POPS IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE SLGT
CHC TSTMS DURG SUN NGT PD.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WK AS UPR RDG MOVES
CLOSER. MAXIMA NR OR SLGTLY ABV NRML CAN BE XPCD DURG THE WKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WLY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL
VEER TO NWLY THIS AFTN AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU. BREEZY WINDS
TDA WILL GUST 20-25 KT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SCT SHRA WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA TO IMPACT
BWI/MTN. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS CAN BE XPCD TUE AND WED. IT IS NOT PSBL ATTM
TO IDENTIFY WHETHER THESE WOULD IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
CLDS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST WED NGT...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
RMN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LGT WINDS ERY THIS MRNG WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. SCA IN
EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TDA...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED. WLY
WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...BECOMING NWLY BY THIS AFTN. DESPITE
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALIZED 30 KT OR
HIGHER WIND GUST TDA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE AFTN WHEN THE WIND
FIELD IS THE STRONGEST.
SMALL CRAFT ADZY WAS RETAINED THRU MID-DAY TUE OWING TO NLY
CHANNELING PSBLTY. WIND WILL BCM LGT THEREAFTER. NO SGFNT MARINE
HAZARDS XPCD THRU RMNDR OF WK OWING TO APRCHG SFC HIPRES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EXPANDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO INCLUDE DC. THE CURRENT TIDAL
ANOMALY AT WASH CHANNEL IS 0.7 ABOVE...WHICH WOULD PUT THE TIDAL
LVL JUST ABOVE MINOR THRESHOLD WITH THE MRNG HIGH TIDE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MON MRNG HIGH
TIDE CYCLE FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIDAL
POTOMAC AND WRN SHORE OF THE MD CHSPK BAY. POSITIVE ANOMALIES
REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 FT OVNGT. WITH A FULL MOON...
DEPARTURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL TRANSLATE TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AT ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS. WILL STILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE SLIGHTLY LESS SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOWLEY BAR
AND WASHINGTON CHANNEL...SINCE THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE CLOSE TO
THEIR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
535-536-538-542.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KLEIN
PREV DISC...KLEIN/KRAMAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
943 AM MDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
WEAK CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF BILLINGS AS OF 15
UTC IS RACING NORTHEAST AROUND 45 KT...SO WE HAVE EXTENDED SOME 20
PERCENT POPS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE ROUNDUP AREA PRIOR TO 18 UTC. THE
BILLINGS AREA COULD CATCH A BRIEF SHOWER TOO BASED ON RECENT RADAR
TRENDS. THIS EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
MODEST DIVERGENCE AT 250-HPA PER RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THE
MAIN IDEA OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT...
WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANGE BEING TO INCREASE HIGHS SLIGHTLY. IF NOT
FOR THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THIS MORNING...WE WOULD HAVE PUSHED THEM
EVEN MORE INTO THE MID 90S F ON THE PLAINS...THOUGH THAT MAY STILL
BE ATTAINED GIVEN MIXING TO 700 HPA OR MORE. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER
THE AREA WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL IF ANY
STORMS DO GET GOING. DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 F SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR
1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH WEAKENING OF THE CAP FOR SCATTERED STORM FORMATION.
WE WILL HAVE ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK WIND SHEAR AND STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL HAIL
OR WIND AT SEVERE LEVELS. THE 12 UTC NAM...00 UTC 4 KM WRF-NMM...
AND RECENT RAP MODELS ALL SUPPORT THIS IDEA IN THEIR QPF OUTPUT.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME MODEL OUTPUT
LIKE THE HRRR DOES SIMULATE A FEW STORMS AROUND BROADUS BY 00 UTC.
WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN THAT AREA IN THE EVENING...BUT A
MID-LEVEL CAP SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY MAY BE MINIMAL. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TWO SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER W MT WED MORNING AND WILL LIFT N DURING THE DAY BRINGING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA. DESPITE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...THE AIRMASS LOOKED DRY SO HAVE REMOVED MOST OF THE POPS.
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL SPIN AROUND THIS LOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW...INTO THE AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE SE WED NIGHT SO HAD POPS IN THIS AREA. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON THU WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER SE MT WHERE THE MODELS PAINTED SOME QPF. ON THU
NIGHT...CONFINED POPS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA UNDER THE BEST
MOISTURE.
UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
SECOND LOW ON FRI. THIS FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SW FLOW OVER THE AREA
UNTIL SUN WHEN THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. CONTINUED A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN INCREASED POPS
INTO SUN AS THE SYSTEM MOVED INTO THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL NE
OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT LEAVING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MON NIGHT. CONTINUED LOW POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
MADE SMALL TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS DURING THE PERIOD. EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEPT ON FRI WHEN READINGS WILL BE IN THE 80S
DUE TO GOOD MIXING AND A WARM AIRMASS. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ROUTES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 18Z WILL BE FROM GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY EAST TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF ROSEBUD COUNTY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM A ROUNDUP TO KBIL TO NE
BIG HORNS LINE W THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 55 KT AND LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL
BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL
SPREAD FURTHER EAST DURING THE EVENING AS WELL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER OVER KMLS...KBHK AND EKALAKA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 063/093 054/074 051/073 050/084 054/076 050/073
2/T 21/B 20/N 02/W 12/W 23/T 33/W
LVM 087 053/087 046/072 040/073 041/081 046/072 045/069
4/T 44/T 32/W 02/W 12/W 23/T 33/W
HDN 094 061/096 054/076 052/074 050/085 054/079 051/076
1/B 21/B 10/N 12/W 22/W 22/T 32/W
MLS 092 066/098 061/079 055/075 054/086 058/080 055/077
1/B 22/T 20/N 13/W 32/T 22/T 32/W
4BQ 093 063/095 059/077 054/075 052/086 055/082 052/078
1/U 12/T 20/N 33/W 22/T 22/T 32/W
BHK 088 062/090 060/078 054/069 054/078 056/080 051/074
1/U 22/T 21/N 24/W 32/T 22/T 32/W
SHR 089 058/092 053/074 050/071 047/082 051/079 050/073
1/B 21/N 10/B 22/W 12/W 22/T 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
732 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
A LOOK AT THE MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM DNR AND LBF ALONG WITH THE
HRRR SUGGESTED GIVING A BUMP TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPS TODAY. JUST A
COUPLE OF DEGREES AT MOST IN SOME AREAS. SO A NEW FCST IS OUT.
A RECORD HIGH COULD BE TIED AT NORTH PLATTE 94F.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...ERN WY...NWRN KS OR THE NEB PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR SOLN SUGGESTED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN COLO AND WRN KS LATE THIS AFTN AROUND 22Z.
THESE STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...COULD DRIFT NORTH INTO SWRN OR
WRN NEB. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS WELL AS DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z INDICATED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER UTAH AND COLORADO WITH THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
ALSO...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN OVER KANSAS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
EDGED INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA...WHICH SAW A DIFFERENCE
IN DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING ON THE
COOLER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ONTO THE WESTERN US COAST TODAY. THIS WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PUSHING THE WARM AIR UP INTO MONTANA AND
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EAST...KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER ITS INFLUENCE WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. AND WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH STAYING SOUTH
OF THE AREA...DON/T EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE MUCH TODAY SO HAVE
LOWERED THOSE VALUES /KEEPING THEM IN THE 50S THROUGH THE DAY/.
LOCATIONS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA COULD SEE
FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST. ALTHOUGH DON/T EXPECT TOO MUCH OF AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY BECOME
BREEZY. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA AND WITH THE CURRENT STORM TRACK...WOULD BRING THAT
ACTIVITY ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING...BELIEVE THAT WILL CUT THIS ACTIVITY OFF AND SHOULDN/T
SEE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
DO HAVE CHANCES FOR STORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK PV ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH
THE WEST COAST TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN
RESPONSE THINK THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT OVER THE
PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO
CAUSE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. THIS ENERGY ALOFT MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SO EXPANDED CHANCES INTO AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION...AND WITH MODELS STRUGGLING TO PICK UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY LATELY /AND CURRENT RUNS NOT PRODUCING MUCH QPF/ JUST
CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW.
TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR...WITH MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WELL
NORTH INTO MONTANA AS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AGAIN...COULD GET UPSLOPE FLOW
AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD GET SOME HIGH BASED STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION...THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/UTAH SO COULD SEE
SOME EXTRA IMPULSES THROUGH THE FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE /WHICH THE
ECMWF IS ACTUALLY HINTING AT FOR TUESDAY EVENING.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATIONS THAT THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENERGY TO THE WEST WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD MEAN HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE ISN/T A
GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT SO HAVEN/T
MADE MUCH CHANGES IN RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER DID
LOWER CHANCES A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE STAYS WELL IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED...HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
THE 20C TO 27C 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. ALSO...THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE SHOWN THE AREA REACHING
MAXIMUM WARMING POTENTIAL AND WITH LITTLE PRECIP AND CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAYS DON/T SEE THAT CHANGING. SO UPPER 80S AND 90S
LOOK LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A BIT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
IN THE 80S MOST DAYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AS THIS OCCURS...WILL LIKELY SEE
NIGHTLY MCS/S PUSHING OVER THE RIDGE. THE CURRENT TRACK LOOKS TO
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE RIDGE
MAY FLATTEN ENOUGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA. GOOD UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SO WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STORM TRACK
WILL BE NORTH SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. THEN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRYING TO LIFT THE MAIN
UPPER LOW SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS COULD BRING ABOUT A FEW COOLER DAYS...HOWEVER THE
WEST COAST TROUGH LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG SO NOT ANTICIPATING A
PATTERN SWITCH AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...ERN WY OR THE NEB PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...COULD DRIFT EAST
INTO WRN NEB. OTHERWISE VFR ALL AREAS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
631 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...ERN WY...NWRN KS OR THE NEB PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR SOLN SUGGESTED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN COLO AND WRN KS LATE THIS AFTN AROUND 22Z.
THESE STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...COULD DRIFT NORTH INTO SWRN OR
WRN NEB. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS WELL AS DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z INDICATED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER UTAH AND COLORADO WITH THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
ALSO...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN OVER KANSAS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
EDGED INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA...WHICH SAW A DIFFERENCE
IN DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE LOCAL AREA BEING ON THE
COOLER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ONTO THE WESTERN US COAST TODAY. THIS WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PUSHING THE WARM AIR UP INTO MONTANA AND
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EAST...KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER ITS INFLUENCE WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. AND WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH STAYING SOUTH
OF THE AREA...DON/T EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE MUCH TODAY SO HAVE
LOWERED THOSE VALUES /KEEPING THEM IN THE 50S THROUGH THE DAY/.
LOCATIONS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA COULD SEE
FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST. ALTHOUGH DON/T EXPECT TOO MUCH OF AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY BECOME
BREEZY. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA AND WITH THE CURRENT STORM TRACK...WOULD BRING THAT
ACTIVITY ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING...BELIEVE THAT WILL CUT THIS ACTIVITY OFF AND SHOULDN/T
SEE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
DO HAVE CHANCES FOR STORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK PV ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH
THE WEST COAST TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN
RESPONSE THINK THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT OVER THE
PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO
CAUSE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. THIS ENERGY ALOFT MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SO EXPANDED CHANCES INTO AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION...AND WITH MODELS STRUGGLING TO PICK UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY LATELY /AND CURRENT RUNS NOT PRODUCING MUCH QPF/ JUST
CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW.
TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR...WITH MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WELL
NORTH INTO MONTANA AS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AGAIN...COULD GET UPSLOPE FLOW
AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD GET SOME HIGH BASED STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION...THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/UTAH SO COULD SEE
SOME EXTRA IMPULSES THROUGH THE FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE /WHICH THE
ECMWF IS ACTUALLY HINTING AT FOR TUESDAY EVENING.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATIONS THAT THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENERGY TO THE WEST WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD MEAN HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE ISN/T A
GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT SO HAVEN/T
MADE MUCH CHANGES IN RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER DID
LOWER CHANCES A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE STAYS WELL IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED...HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
THE 20C TO 27C 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. ALSO...THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE SHOWN THE AREA REACHING
MAXIMUM WARMING POTENTIAL AND WITH LITTLE PRECIP AND CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAYS DON/T SEE THAT CHANGING. SO UPPER 80S AND 90S
LOOK LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A BIT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
IN THE 80S MOST DAYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AS THIS OCCURS...WILL LIKELY SEE
NIGHTLY MCS/S PUSHING OVER THE RIDGE. THE CURRENT TRACK LOOKS TO
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE RIDGE
MAY FLATTEN ENOUGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA. GOOD UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SO WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STORM TRACK
WILL BE NORTH SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. THEN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRYING TO LIFT THE MAIN
UPPER LOW SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS COULD BRING ABOUT A FEW COOLER DAYS...HOWEVER THE
WEST COAST TROUGH LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG SO NOT ANTICIPATING A
PATTERN SWITCH AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...ERN WY OR THE NEB PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...COULD DRIFT EAST
INTO WRN NEB. OTHERWISE VFR ALL AREAS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1039 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER LOW
THEN SLOWLY MOVES AWAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...QUESTIONS SURROUNDING POPS MAINLY ACROSS LOWLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD TODAY. CONVECTIVE
AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH AND
PARTICULARLY SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT COINCIDE THE
BEST. LATEST NAM AND PREVIOUS RUC POINT SOUNDINGS HOWEVER BOTH
INDICATED AN ABSOLULTELY STABLE LAYER AROUND 600MB-500MB
WHICH...EVEN WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WOULD HAVE EFFECTIVELY
CAPPED DEVELOPMENT AROUND 15KFT PLUS OR MINUS. THIS WITH HIGH
LCL/S AROUND 7KFT AND STORM MOVEMENT AROUND 30-35KTS ALL WERE
LENDING DOUBT TO ANY ONE POINT/SITE RECEIVING ANYTHING
MEASUREABLE. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS HAVE BACKED OFF THE
CAPPING LAYER SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TALLER DEVELOPMENT
AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS IN PLACE WHERE THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION...HAVE INCLUDED POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST TO
INCLUDE MAINLY THE KY COUNTIIES PER LATEST DATA AND ONGOING SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME. WITH REGARD
TO MOUNTAIN POPS...ALSO DID INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS
MAINLY NE HIGH TERRAIN.
PREV DISCN...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PASSING WELL S OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING MAINLY DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE. HEIGHTS DO LOWER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
MOVES SE AND OFFSHORE...AND A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W FROM IT MOVES
S...AND CROSSES TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
N AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE AFTERNOON WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL COOLING. AM CONCERNED FRONT
COULD HELP FOCUS CONVECTION OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THAT THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT DISTINGUISHES TODAY FROM RECENT
DAYS SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE WV LOWLANDS AS WELL. WRFS ARE
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON A ROUGHLY E-W LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVING S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SO
MAY FARTHER REFINE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS COULD BE VERY
NEARLY AN RLX-CENTRIC EVENT AS THE SHOWERS DO NOT POP UP UNTIL THE
FORCING IS S OF TE PBZ AREA...DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE GETTING
S OF THE AREA...AND DO NOT OCCUR MUCH FARTHER W THAN THE OHO RIVER.
BLENDED IN ADJMET TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE NARROW GUIDANCE
SPREAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS MORE OR LESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY.
MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING INDIVIDUAL WAVES CAUGHT UP
IN FLOW...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL
FILTER INTO FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE A
SLIGHT UPSWING IN POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH. CHARACTER OF PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...FORMING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. PULLED BACK SLIGHTLY ON SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS PRECIP DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DIURNAL
IN NATURE.
FOR TEMPS...SEEING SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...
AND VALUES ARE LOOK IN LINE WITH THE COOL PATTERN. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED BC GUIDANCE VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR THE LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ON A SLOW
RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR STRATOCU-ALTOCU PATTERN CONTINUES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BENEATH THE COOL AIR
THAT REMAINS ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT SLIPPING S THROUGH THE
AREA MAY HELP TO FOCUS THESE SHOWERS...AND A THUNDERSHOWER IS ALSO
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE W TO SW FLOW OF LATE WILL BECOME N TO
NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE GUSTY EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY.
MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL VEER TO THE N THIS EVENING AND
THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EKN MAY NOT DROP INTO MVFR WITH FOG
TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
939 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED FROM CAPE COD TO THE CATSKILLS
OF EASTERN NEW YORK STATE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND REMAIN PARKED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
MIDWEST WITH CLEARING AND WARMER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW IS ELONGATED EAST/WEST FROM SRN NEW YORK TO THE BOSTON
AREAS THIS MORNING. ONE CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
KBGM THIS AM...AND ON TRACK TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG 500 MB VORT MAX WILL BE
DROPPING SWD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN TODAY HELPING TO
FOCUS THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS /AND SCTD LOW-TOPPED TSRA/ NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW STRATUS/STRATO CU IS FOUND UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS OUR
NRN MTNS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND NRLY
FLOW/COLD ADVECTION.
THIS THICKER/LAYERED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN. MORE SPOKES
OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MEAGER CAPE PER LATEST RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN LESS-INTENSE SHOWERS AND LESS AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THAN WE
EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY.
WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO MUCH WEAKER /THAN YESTERDAYS 4-6KFT 45KT
FLOW/ WITH ONLY 20-25KTS OUT OF THE NORTH EXPECTED FROM THE SFC TO
CLOUD TOPS THIS AFTN/EVENING. STILL...SCT SHRA AND EVEN ISOLD TSRA
ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE AREA. BETTER/MORE- WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE EAST - CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. MAXES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO OR A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S NUMBERS WITH THE
CLOUD COVERAGE AND WEAK COLD TO NEUTRAL AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...SOME WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE NE-SW
AS THE MEAN MID-LEVEL WIND VEERS OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ALONG THE NE COAST
FOR THE PERIOD...AND NEARLY IDENTICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH
24HR CYCLE. SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVE. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN A
BIT FOR EACH OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS FAR ENOUGH AWAY THE
AIR WILL MODIFY/WARM JUST SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. BUT THESE WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL AT FIRST AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRI...BUT ACCOMPANYING LARGE TROUGH
WILL KEEP COOL NW FLOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER INTO THU AS BACK EDGE OF TROUGH
/AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK SHORTWAVE/ PUSH THROUGH. TEMPS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY FRI AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNINGS WILL BE CHILLY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS
FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FOR SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN PENN /AND CURRENTLY AFFECTING KBFD/
WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WHERE A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT SWD OUT OF THE
CATSKILL AND NRN POCONO REGION.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
FRI...AM VALLEY FOG AND IFR POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
752 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND PARK OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
MIDWEST WITH CLEARING AND WARMER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW IS ELONGATED BUT ONE CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE
OVER BGM THIS AM...AND ON TRACK TO CONSOLIDATE OVER CAPE COD THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG VORT MAX HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF THE STATE
ALREADY AND FEW CLOUDS FOUND IN THE SRN COS. BUT LOW STRATUS IS
FOUND UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND FORMING/SPREADING SWRD WITH THE
HELP OF TOPO LIFT AND NRLY FLOW/COLD ADVECTION WILL COVER THE NRN
HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
DOWN...BUT MORE SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE DOWN THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MEAGER CAPE PER LATEST RUC AND NAM
SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS-INTENSE SHOWERS AND LESS
AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THAN ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO MUCH
WEAKER WITH ONLY 20-25KTS OUT OF THE NORTH EXPECTED FROM THE SFC
TO CLOUD TOPS THIS AFTN/EVENING. STILL...SCT SHRA AND EVEN ISOLD
TSRA ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE AREA. BETTER/MORE-WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE EAST - CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. MAXES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S NUMBERS WITH
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND WEAK COLD TO NEUTRAL AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...SOME WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE NE-SW
AS THE MEAN MID-LEVEL WIND VEERS OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ALONG THE NE COAST
FOR THE PERIOD...AND NEARLY IDENTICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH
24HR CYCLE. SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVE. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN A
BIT FOR EACH OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS FAR ENOUGH AWAY THE
AIR WILL MODIFY/WARM JUST SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. BUT THESE WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL AT FIRST AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRI...BUT ACCOMPANYING LARGE TROUGH
WILL KEEP COOL NW FLOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. KEPT MENTION OF A SHOWER INTO THU AS BACK EDGE OF TROUGH
/AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK SHORTWAVE/ PUSH THROUGH. TEMPS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY FRI AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNINGS WILL BE CHILLY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS
FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FOR SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THU...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
FRI...AM VALLEY FOG AND IFR POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
957 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID
STATE THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR SOUTH. NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE SO THAT ACTIVITY IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT. PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALREADY BEGINNING TO RETURN ACROSS NW
AREAS OF THE CWA. AREAS ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AS THE MORNING GOES ON. THUS...WE SHOULD
HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 80S OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS.
OTW...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY FROM
IL/IN. PROGS TAKE THE MOISTURE ACROSS MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN BY
TONIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE. SO...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL REDUCE MORNING POPS TO ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON
POTENTIAL. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ALLOW FOR
A LITTLE MORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON PARTIAL CLEARING.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRATIFORM RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ASSOCIATED WITH MCS OVER N MS/N AL. NORTH OF THE PRECIP...PATCHY
FOG AFFECTING CKV/CSV THIS MORNING..BUT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MCS OVER NORTHERN
AL/MS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH ALL RAIN EXITING MID TN
EARLY THIS MORNING. CLEARING THEN WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE I-24 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MENTION VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPO TSRA AT CKV/BNA
22-02Z...ALTHOUGH THIS TIMING REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS WEAK FRONT
MOVES BACK SOUTHWARD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM (THRU WED)...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MID TN EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGHER DEWPTS HELPED DRIVE A QLCS WIND DAMAGE EVENT
IN W TN/N MS LAST EVE...THAT MOVED INTO N AL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SYS
HAS DISSIPATED.
RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS FM NE OK TO W TN...MOVG
SOUTHEAST ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERRY-LEWIS-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STALLED FRONT WL SHIFT NORTH WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO FORM MID-LATE AFTN. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER WL BE WEST OF I-65.
SFC LOW PRES/COLD FRONT WL MOVE SOUTH THIS EVE. CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WL CONTINUE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH OF TN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE AREA WL START TO DRY OUT.
SFC HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BACK
TO MID TN TUE-WED.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
DRY PATTERN WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARMING TREND IS IN
STORE WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 W OF PLAT NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS WL BE IN THE
60S.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
634 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRATIFORM RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ASSOCIATED WITH MCS OVER N MS/N AL. NORTH OF THE PRECIP...PATCHY
FOG AFFECTING CKV/CSV THIS MORNING..BUT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MCS OVER NORTHERN
AL/MS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH ALL RAIN EXITING MID TN
EARLY THIS MORNING. CLEARING THEN WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE I-24 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MENTION VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPO TSRA AT CKV/BNA
22-02Z...ALTHOUGH THIS TIMING REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS WEAK FRONT
MOVES BACK SOUTHWARD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM (THRU WED)...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MID TN EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGHER DEWPTS HELPED DRIVE A QLCS WIND DAMAGE EVENT
IN W TN/N MS LAST EVE...THAT MOVED INTO N AL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SYS
HAS DISSIPATED.
RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS FM NE OK TO W TN...MOVG
SOUTHEAST ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERRY-LEWIS-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STALLED FRONT WL SHIFT NORTH WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO FORM MID-LATE AFTN. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER WL BE WEST OF I-65.
SFC LOW PRES/COLD FRONT WL MOVE SOUTH THIS EVE. CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WL CONTINUE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH OF TN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE AREA WL START TO DRY OUT.
SFC HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BACK
TO MID TN TUE-WED.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
DRY PATTERN WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARMING TREND IS IN
STORE WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 W OF PLAT NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS WL BE IN THE
60S.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
643 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
IOWA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN AREA OF 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS NOTED ON THE
03.03Z RAP.
03.00Z MODELS OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
ONLY DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF WEAK FORCING SIGNALS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. RAP ALSO INDICATES THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. DID PLACE
A LOWER END PROBABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH 15Z TO COVER THE
DEPARTING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LATER TODAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME VERY WEAK
850-700MB QG CONVERGENCE WILL INTERACT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF
500 J/KG-1000 J/KG TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID CONTINUE CHANCES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER THAT.
DEPENDING UP HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY AND HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FOG POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT VORTICITY IS MORE CHANNELED WITH THIS FEATURE. ONCE
AGAIN MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES ACROSS WISCONSIN.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE SOME WEAK CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA AND THUS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
HIGH THEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR DRY WEATHER. AS THE
RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE RIDGE WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN IT
OUT...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOWARDS THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF IT WILL
RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY BY SUNDAY FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
642 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE IS A BIT BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
DUE TO THIS...IT WAS INCLUDED IN THE KLSE TAF AND LEFT OUT OF THE
KRST TAF. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING...EXPECT
THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...RABERDING
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1040 AM PDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM FRESNO
COUNTY NORTH. IT WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AND
WINDY ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMUP FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST PERIODS OF STRONG
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AFTER 128Z /1100 PDT/ TUESDAY...SO
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS LOOKS ON TRACK.
LATEST SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS A GENERAL RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KINGS/KERN COUNTY LINE. NAM-12 AND
RUC CONVECTIVE POTENTIALS SHOW AREAS OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY /1700 PDT THIS AFTERNOON/. THE 15Z RUC HAS THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN MADERA COUNTY AROUND 22Z /1500 PDT/ TODAY
WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES OF 400 JOULES/KG AND SURFACE-COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES OF -2. THE 12Z NAM-12 HAS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER THE JUNCTION OF FRESNO/MONO/TULARE COUNTIES AT
21Z TODAY WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES OF 800 JOULES/KG AND SURFACE-
COMPUTED LIFTED INDICES OF -2. THE 12Z NAM-20...WHICH USUALLY DOES A
GOOD JOB WITH PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...
BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO MARIPOSA COUNTY AND YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON...AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION NORTH OF KINGS CANYON
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
VALLEY-FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06-15Z
TUESDAY.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE NAM-12 HAS AND 850-MB TEMPERATURE
FOR TUOLUMNE MEADOWS OF 0 C AT 12Z TUESDAY...AND A 700-MB TEMPERATURE
OF -10 C. GIVEN THAT THE 850-MB LEVEL IS BELOW GROUND FOR THE MEADOWS
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOW. RFC GUIDANCE
TAPERS QPF OFF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT COULD IMPACT TIOGA PASS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM PDT MON JUN 4 2012/
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THRU 130W THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THRU CENTRAL
CA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE UPPER TROF WILL
TAKE ON A NEG TILT AS THE PARENT LOW IN THE GLFAK PUSHES SE TOWARD
THE PAC NW COAST. IMPRESSIVE PVA AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF FRESNO
COUNTY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF ABOUT 5PM.
A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE KERN MTNS/DESERTS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY IN
THE SJV LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. IT COULD HOWEVER KICK UP THE
DUST...WITH DECREASING AIR QUALITY LATE TODAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
END IN THE VALLEY THIS EVE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE SRN SIERRA FROM SEQUOIA PARK NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROF TUES...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
MAX TEMPS WILL BE SOME 15-20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDS ARE
ALSO LIKELY AGAIN TUES AFTERNOON IN COLD ADVECTION PATTERN.
HEIGHTS BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASE BEYOND TUES...BUT A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO
THE E OF CA. TEMPS WILL WARM ACCORDINGLY AND SHOULD BE BACK TO
AT LEAST AVERAGE VALUES FOR THURS AND FRI. ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL
UPPER LOW IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW FRI. WHILE NO PRECIP
IS FCST FOR CENTRAL CA...AN INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER TEMPS AGAIN BELOW NORMAL SAT AND SUN WITH INCREASING MTN AND
DESERT WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AND
BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY IN ADDITION TO THE SIERRA
CREST UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
UNTIL 06Z TUESDAY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD AND IN THE SIERRA FROM YOSEMITE N.P.
TO KINGS CANYON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS /CAZ095-098-099/.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...PJ
PREV DISCUSSION...BINGHAM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT MON JUN 4 2012
.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES FOR TODAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND GIVEN THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOVE
AROUND KALS THROUGH 01-03Z THIS EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AT KALS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY AT KCOS AND KPUB WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. MODELS
INDICATING THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS A KCOS AND
KPUB WILL BE FROM AROUND 21-02Z THIS AFTERNOON. IMPACTS INCLUDE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CIGS
AND VIS MAY ALSO LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM CORES THAT MOVE
OVER THE TERMINALS. EXPECT CLEARING AND VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DEVELOPING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW BY MID DAY WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT
KCOS AND KPUB. MOZLEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM MDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
..MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND UTAH THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING AS
A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST
COAST AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH SATELLITE AND EVEN RADAR IMAGERY TRACKING A DISTINCT
CIRCULATION (MCV) WHICH HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY AND
INTO CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDERNEATH
RIDGE EVIDENT WITH HIGHER MTN OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG WITH MORE VARIABLE
READINGS FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT DEW PTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE IN THE
20S AND 30S AND MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...WITH
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MTS...OWNING TO ENHANCED
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOLAR HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH
LATEST MODELS DIFFERING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTNS AND PLAINS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NSSL
AND LOCAL WRFS HAVE CONVECTION TIED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THEN HELPING TO
FIRE CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM AND THE 06Z HRRR HAVE CONVECTION
FIRING BETWEEN 15Z-18Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS...AND THEN DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME CONVECTION HANGING ON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN TX AND OK PANHANDLE. WITH THAT SAID AND
THE MCV CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HAVE TAILORED
CURRENT FORECAST CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH BASED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ARE PROGGED. TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HIGHS DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS NEAR AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
MILD SIDE ONCE AGAIN. -MW
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WHILE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASES. APPEARS WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH STORMS
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INITIALLY...THEN DRIFTING EAST ON TO THE
PLAINS BY EVENING. SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS LOW...THOUGH A FEW NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AS KCOS GUSTED TO 47 KNOTS IN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT
YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS TUES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COOL SLIGHTLY OVER
THE EAST AS 700 MB TEMPS FALL 1-2C...WHILE READINGS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT.
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY APPROACH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DEEP MIXING TAPS STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...THOUGH SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO STAY JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
HIGHLIGHT THRESHOLDS. OVER THE PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE EAST OF I-25...WITH RISK OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TSRA
CONTINUING INTO WED EVENING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY WED
MOST LOCATIONS...AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THU INTO FRI...WITH AREA
REMAINING UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW BOTH DAYS. VERY
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOISTURE
LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS DRYLINE STAYS MAINLY ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE KS BORDER. TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA
BOTH DAYS OVER THE PLAINS...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE EAST OF
I-25. UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE...WHICH MAY FINALLY FLUSH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BOTH SAT/SUN. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE SAT INTO
SUN AS UPPER JET ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM...BEFORE COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS AREA-WIDE
BY MON AFTERNOON. --10
AVIATION...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE STATE WILL WILL FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. -TSRA SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE MORNING AND DRIFT OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS AND VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE TERMINALS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. -MW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
88/34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
204 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/
.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM...AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA WITH SOME BREAKING UP OF CLOUDS
TRAILING THE PRECIP IN THE NORTH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
AND KEPT HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER 18Z AS HRRR AND NAM BOTH
POINT AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPS HAVE
TRENDED DECENTLY COOLER DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SO HAVE
BUMPED MAX TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 4 DEGREES. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE ON TRACK ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA BUT THEY ARE CREEPING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. THUNDER IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF WHICH IS RIGHT IN
LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR MODEL SAID WAS GOING TO HAPPEN. ONCE THIS
LINE GETS SOUTH OF I20 SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1600 J/KG AND LIS IN THE -3
TO -6 RANGE. SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA AS THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE STATE. THIS
MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITIES
PEAKING BETWEEN 18Z-00Z AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND JUST INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. UNLIKE THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM DESPITE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM12 AND ECMWF
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING POPS BACK INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT FEEL WITH SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH PRIOR TO THE
LONG TERM...THE NORTHERN HALF SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT AND FAVOR THE
GFS THIS CYCLE. REGARDLESS...ALL MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING FOR VERY
LOW END POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOES BUILD
INTO THE AREA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING TREND IN
EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS.
DEESE
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... IFR TO MVFR CIGS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SITES
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS NEAR 4KFT BY 01Z THIS EVENING. SOME
LINGERING -SHRA IS POSSIBLE FOR KMCN AND KCSG UNTIL AROUND 20Z
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED -TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH FROM
22-01Z WITH CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL... HOWEVER THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT NEAR
06-12Z SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP. WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER
10KTS MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR
CATEGORY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND PRECIP.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELSE.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 80 66 80 63 / 60 40 40 10
ATLANTA 80 68 82 65 / 50 40 30 10
BLAIRSVILLE 77 59 74 55 / 80 50 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 78 67 83 62 / 80 50 30 10
COLUMBUS 85 71 88 69 / 80 40 30 20
GAINESVILLE 80 66 78 62 / 80 50 30 10
MACON 83 71 87 67 / 80 40 50 30
ROME 81 65 82 60 / 80 50 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 80 68 85 63 / 80 40 30 10
VIDALIA 85 73 89 69 / 80 40 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DODGE...EMANUEL...JOHNSON...LAURENS...
MONTGOMERY...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...WHEELER...WILCOX.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03/01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK TROF FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED
850MB DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS ILLINOIS. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW CONVECTION CONTINUING WITH THE
WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ILLINOIS. THE DAKOTAS WAVE WAS
TRYING TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK LOW NEAR KPPQ WITH AN INVERTED TROF
RUNNING BACK INTO CENTRAL IOWA. A LAKE INDUCED COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. A WEAK TROF
RAN FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE
IN THE 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY SOUTH WHILE 40S
AND 50S WERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE QUESTION IS WILL CONVECTION FIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THEN LINGER INTO THE EVENING. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWFA BUT TEMPERATURES THERE ARE WELL BELOW THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW WEAK CU DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. SO...UNLESS SOMETHING DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT
2.5 HRS ON SOME LOCALIZED SFC CONVERGENCE IT APPEARS THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY.
LATER TONIGHT THE DAKOTA SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY STEEP AND THERE IS NO
SFC CONVERGENCE TO HELP GET ANYTHING GOING. THUS OTHER THAN SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WELL.
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST PASSING CLOUDS FROM THE
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX. FCST MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ARE EITHER AT
OR JUST BELOW THE PROJECTED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA BY MID
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON. 08
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL FEEL A COOL NIGHT/BELOW
GUIDANCE IN STORE TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH...IF ENOUGH CLEARING
OCCURS UNDER CHANNELED VORT SHUTTLE ALOFT. SOME LOWS IN THE 40S
POSSIBLE...WITH MANY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. ONGOING DRY AIRMASS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING REGIME ON WED CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ONGOING
DRY FCST...NICE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
CLEARING AND SEASONABLY COOL AGAIN WED NIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHING WEST SOME FROM THE GRT LKS. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INLAND BUILDING UPPER JET/WAVE ENERGY TO SHUNT
BRUNT OF OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD/FRI MORNING. WHILE MCS/S FLARE UP ACRS
THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS AS A RESULT..THE LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN
DRY THRU FRI MORNING WITH SOME SLIGHT THERMAL MODERATION.
FRIDAY...BETTER TEMP RECOVER WITH INCREASED RETURN FLOW FRI WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. DESPITE SOME MODELS TILTING UPPER RIDGE
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ENOUGH TO SPILL SOME OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MN MCS ACTIVITY DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FRI OR FRI
NIGHT...FEEL THE RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS
PROPAGATION TRAJECTORY AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SAT WHILE IT/S
ROCK AND ROLL TIME FROM THE DAKOTAS...ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND TO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE NEW
ECMWF SUGGEST BUILDING HEAT DOME WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING TO
REIGN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MID AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEYS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LLVL WARM AND MORE MOIST FETCH NOW SUPPORT
HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WILL NOT ADVERTISE THOSE EXTREMES YET...BUT
THE SUNDAY WARM SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. MAIN STORM/MCS TRACK WILL LOOK TO BE MID TO LATE SUMMER-LIKE
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...TO ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION OR
EVEN FURTHER NORTH. WESTERN WAVE ENERGY SURGE TO EVENTUALLY BE
REALIZED UP OVER THE RIDGE WITH A GREATLY DAMPENING EFFECT ON
THE BLOCKED PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY STRONG AND
DEEPENING CYCLONE PUSHING ACRS CENTRAL CANADA WILL HAVE TO SHUNT A
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME...WITH THE LATEST RUNS HINTING AT
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY QUICKER GFS WITH THIS
PROCESS HAS SLOWED TO THE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN TARGETING MON NIGH
AND TUES AS THE NEXT MAIN PRECIP WINDOW. EXTENT OF CURRENTLY PROGGED
MOISTURE FETCH/CONVEYOR UP OFF THE WESTERN GULF COULD FUEL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS COMPLEX THAT GET GENERATED BY THIS FROPA.
IF FRONT STALL ACRS THE AREA...A PROLONGED STORMY PERIOD COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. 12
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 1930Z SHOWS WEAK DIURNAL CUMULUS DVLPMNT
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS VERY LOW.
THUS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/05. AFT 18Z/05 VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
THERE BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST IF IT OCCURS. 08
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
08/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
439 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT UNTIL 07 UTC. SCATTERED STORMS MAY YIELD
SOME SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. SCHULTZ
A HOT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A DYNAMIC 500-HPA TROUGH
TO OUR WEST SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THE RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE DURING THIS TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT....A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK WILL
EXIST...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS OF 20 UTC.
THERE IS EVEN A BIT OF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THANKS
TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE RESULT IS AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8 C/KM. THE RAP-
BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXCEPT IN
THE LIVINGSTON AREA...WHERE WE MAY SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP AND MOVE
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES
ALSO SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HEADING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL WY...AND THE 18 UTC RAP SIMULATES A
SMALL LOWERING OF THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE IN THAT VICINITY. THAT MODEL
TAKES THIS PERTURBATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS EVEN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT BY 00 UTC...SO THAT COULD BE A TRIGGER TO GET SOME
STORMS GOING AS WELL. THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING MAKES THIS
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST THOUGH...SO WE MAINLY HAVE 20 OR 30 POPS FOR
THIS SITUATION. THE EXCEPTION IS FROM LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON...AS
THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS STILL SHOW A 50-60 KT 300-HPA JET STREAK IN
THAT AREA DURING THE EVENING. IF OR WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP...SOME
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT WILL EXIST WITH 40 KT OF BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER. THE GRIDDED FORECAST WAS TWEAKED TO MAKE MENTION
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ANOTHER ROW OR TWO COUNTIES TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...NOW TAKING THE THREAT EAST OF BILLINGS ACROSS
MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT. THAT IS OUT OF RESPECT TO THE WAVE WHICH
IS COMING OUT OF WY...AND TRENDS IN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE RECENT RAP
AND NAM MODELS.
TUE...A VERY WARM AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MIXING TO
700 HPA /WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +15 C/ OR DEEPER MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO YIELD 100 F READINGS IN SOME PLACES LIKE MILES CITY.
IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT AND DEWPOINTS REALLY DROP...WE MAY
END UP SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL EVERYWHERE WITH OUR HIGHS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MT...WHERE 500 M AGL WINDS NEAR 30 KT EXIST. NOTE THE
12 UTC MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH WINDS AT BAKER...SO WE
DID NOT INCLUDE ANY HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS JUNCTURE. POTENTIAL OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS ALSO ON OUR MINDS...BUT IT IS NOT TOO CLEAR
HOW LOW HUMIDITY WILL GET...SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE AGAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT MLCAPE SHOULD
STILL BE 500 TO 1000 J/KG EVEN IF SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS IN THE
DEEP MIXING REGIME. GREATER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST NEAR LIVINGSTON.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH REGARD TO FORCING...AND WHETHER THERE
WILL BE DETRIMENTAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO UPDRAFTS. THUS WE STILL
HAVE ONLY LOW POPS IN PLAY FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FROM LIVINGSTON
TO HARLOWTON...WHERE A COLD FRONT MAY YIELD GREATER STORM COVERAGE
DURING THE EVENING. AGAIN A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT EXISTS. IT
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS COULD FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AS
IT PASSES TUE NIGHT...BUT WE HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT ITS TIMING.
WED...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL HEAD NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA
AND PLACE A 90 KT 300-HPA JET OVERHEAD. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LOW
SHOWER THREAT...BUT WE ARE NOT INCLUDING THAT IN THE FORECAST JUST
YET GIVEN THE DRYING/STABILIZING POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. UPPER LOW
NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW MAY INTERACT WITH SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EAST TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT
POPS/QPF IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY...BUT LOWERED
THEM A BIT FARTHER WEST...WHERE DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE ACCENTUATED
BY WEAK MID- LEVEL RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW WILL TAP INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE
AND WORK WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE AND AN APPROACHING
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AS 700 MB
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS AND GOOD
MIXING IS EXPECTED. WITH THE WARMER 700 MB TEMPS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THIS MAY ACT AS A CAP IN THAT REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...SO THE MID- LEVEL CAP WILL ERODE...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO EASTERN ZONES.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT COMBINING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DAYTIME
HEATING...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE...INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...SO HIGH
TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY TO REFLECT THIS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SO DECREASED POPS. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP
TO KBIL TO KSHR LINE THROUGH 23Z...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 55 KT AND LARGE
HAIL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER KMLS...KBHK AND EKALAKA
THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE
FROM MVFR TO LIFR. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID-
AFTERNOON WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO RED LODGE LINE AND EAST OF A KMLS
TO BROADUS LINE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN
ROUTES TUESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/094 054/074 049/075 050/085 055/076 048/070 046/071
21/B 21/N 11/B 12/T 22/T 33/T 21/B
LVM 053/087 046/070 040/073 042/080 046/072 042/065 038/066
43/T 42/W 11/B 12/T 23/T 43/T 32/W
HDN 063/097 054/076 049/076 049/087 053/079 049/073 046/073
21/B 11/B 12/T 12/T 22/T 33/T 21/B
MLS 069/099 061/079 053/077 052/087 058/080 053/074 050/071
22/T 21/N 12/T 22/T 22/T 33/T 21/B
4BQ 064/095 059/077 052/076 051/087 056/082 050/075 049/071
22/T 21/N 33/T 22/T 22/T 32/T 21/B
BHK 062/093 060/078 051/073 051/081 057/080 050/072 049/068
22/T 21/N 24/T 32/T 21/B 33/T 21/N
SHR 058/092 053/074 047/073 047/084 051/079 047/070 044/069
21/N 11/B 12/T 12/T 22/T 33/T 21/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MDT
TUESDAY FOR ZONES 28-29-34-35-39>42-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
313 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
A HOT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A DYNAMIC 500-HPA TROUGH
TO OUR WEST SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THE RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE DURING THIS TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT....A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK WILL
EXIST...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS OF 20 UTC.
THERE IS EVEN A BIT OF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THANKS
TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE RESULT IS AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8 C/KM. THE RAP-
BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXCEPT IN
THE LIVINGSTON AREA...WHERE WE MAY SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP AND MOVE
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES
ALSO SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A WEAK WAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HEADING OUR WAY OUT OF CENTRAL WY...AND THE 18 UTC RAP SIMULATES A
SMALL LOWERING OF THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE IN THAT VICINITY. THAT MODEL
TAKES THIS PERTURBATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS EVEN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT BY 00 UTC...SO THAT COULD BE A TRIGGER TO GET SOME
STORMS GOING AS WELL. THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING MAKES THIS
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST THOUGH...SO WE MAINLY HAVE 20 OR 30 POPS FOR
THIS SITUATION. THE EXCEPTION IS FROM LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON...AS
THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS STILL SHOW A 50-60 KT 300-HPA JET STREAK IN
THAT AREA DURING THE EVENING. IF OR WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP...SOME
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT WILL EXIST WITH 40 KT OF BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER. THE GRIDDED FORECAST WAS TWEAKED TO MAKE MENTION
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ANOTHER ROW OR TWO COUNTIES TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...NOW TAKING THE THREAT EAST OF BILLINGS ACROSS
MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT. THAT IS OUT OF RESPECT TO THE WAVE WHICH
IS COMING OUT OF WY...AND TRENDS IN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE RECENT RAP
AND NAM MODELS.
TUE...A VERY WARM AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MIXING TO
700 HPA /WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +15 C/ OR DEEPER MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO YIELD 100 F READINGS IN SOME PLACES LIKE MILES CITY.
IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT AND DEWPOINTS REALLY DROP...WE MAY
END UP SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL EVERYWHERE WITH OUR HIGHS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MT...WHERE 500 M AGL WINDS NEAR 30 KT EXIST. NOTE THE
12 UTC MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH WINDS AT BAKER...SO WE
DID NOT INCLUDE ANY HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS JUNCTURE. POTENTIAL OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS ALSO ON OUR MINDS...BUT IT IS NOT TOO CLEAR
HOW LOW HUMIDITY WILL GET...SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE AGAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT MLCAPE SHOULD
STILL BE 500 TO 1000 J/KG EVEN IF SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURS IN THE
DEEP MIXING REGIME. GREATER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST NEAR LIVINGSTON.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH REGARD TO FORCING...AND WHETHER THERE
WILL BE DETRIMENTAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO UPDRAFTS. THUS WE STILL
HAVE ONLY LOW POPS IN PLAY FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FROM LIVINGSTON
TO HARLOWTON...WHERE A COLD FRONT MAY YIELD GREATER STORM COVERAGE
DURING THE EVENING. AGAIN A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT EXISTS. IT
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS COULD FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AS
IT PASSES TUE NIGHT...BUT WE HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT ITS TIMING.
WED...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL HEAD NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA
AND PLACE A 90 KT 300-HPA JET OVERHEAD. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LOW
SHOWER THREAT...BUT WE ARE NOT INCLUDING THAT IN THE FORECAST JUST
YET GIVEN THE DRYING/STABILIZING POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. UPPER LOW
NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW MAY INTERACT WITH SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EAST TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT
POPS/QPF IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY...BUT LOWERED
THEM A BIT FARTHER WEST...WHERE DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE ACCENTUATED
BY WEAK MID- LEVEL RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW WILL TAP INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE
AND WORK WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE AND AN APPROACHING
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AS 700 MB
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS AND GOOD
MIXING IS EXPECTED. WITH THE WARMER 700 MB TEMPS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THIS MAY ACT AS A CAP IN THAT REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...SO THE MID- LEVEL CAP WILL ERODE...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO EASTERN ZONES.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT COMBINING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DAYTIME
HEATING...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE...INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...SO HIGH
TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY TO REFLECT THIS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SO DECREASED POPS. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP
TO KBIL TO KSHR LINE THROUGH 23Z...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 55 KT AND LARGE
HAIL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER KMLS...KBHK AND EKALAKA
THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE
FROM MVFR TO LIFR. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID-
AFTERNOON WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO RED LODGE LINE AND EAST OF A KMLS
TO BROADUS LINE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN
ROUTES TUESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/094 054/074 049/075 050/085 055/076 048/070 046/071
21/B 21/N 11/B 12/T 22/T 33/T 21/B
LVM 053/087 046/070 040/073 042/080 046/072 042/065 038/066
43/T 42/W 11/B 12/T 23/T 43/T 32/W
HDN 063/097 054/076 049/076 049/087 053/079 049/073 046/073
21/B 11/B 12/T 12/T 22/T 33/T 21/B
MLS 069/099 061/079 053/077 052/087 058/080 053/074 050/071
22/T 21/N 12/T 22/T 22/T 33/T 21/B
4BQ 064/095 059/077 052/076 051/087 056/082 050/075 049/071
22/T 21/N 33/T 22/T 22/T 32/T 21/B
BHK 062/093 060/078 051/073 051/081 057/080 050/072 049/068
22/T 21/N 24/T 32/T 21/B 33/T 21/N
SHR 058/092 053/074 047/073 047/084 051/079 047/070 044/069
21/N 11/B 12/T 12/T 22/T 33/T 21/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
148 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER LOW
THEN SLOWLY MOVES AWAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE MAINLY FAR WESTERN
KY ZONES WITH APPROACHING PRECIP MOVING SE ACROSS OHIO. STILL NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AMOUNTS...WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING
SEVERAL SITES TO THE W/NW REPORTING RAIN BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE
ANYWHERE NEARBY YET...WITH HIGH LCL/S AND QUICK MOVEMENT. WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED THUNDER FROM FCST AS IT APPEARS AN ABS STABLE
LAYER EXISTS AROUND 600MB- 500MB PER LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS AND 12Z
WILMINGTON RAOB...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO
AROUND 15KFT. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP BY 1-3 DEGREES AREAWIDE
PER CURRENT OBS.
1030 AM UPDATE...QUESTIONS SURROUNDING POPS MAINLY ACROSS LOWLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD TODAY. CONVECTIVE
AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH AND
PARTICULARLY SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT COINCIDE THE
BEST. LATEST NAM AND PREVIOUS RUC POINT SOUNDINGS HOWEVER BOTH
INDICATED AN ABSOLULTELY STABLE LAYER AROUND 600MB-500MB
WHICH...EVEN WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WOULD HAVE EFFECTIVELY
CAPPED DEVELOPMENT AROUND 15KFT PLUS OR MINUS. THIS WITH HIGH
LCL/S AROUND 7KFT AND STORM MOVEMENT AROUND 30-35KTS ALL WERE
LENDING DOUBT TO ANY ONE POINT/SITE RECEIVING ANYTHING
MEASUREABLE. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS HAVE BACKED OFF THE
CAPPING LAYER SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TALLER DEVELOPMENT
AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS IN PLACE WHERE THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION...HAVE INCLUDED POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST TO
INCLUDE MAINLY THE KY COUNTIIES PER LATEST DATA AND ONGOING SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA AT THIS TIME. WITH REGARD
TO MOUNTAIN POPS...ALSO DID INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS
MAINLY NE HIGH TERRAIN.
PREV DISCN...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PASSING WELL S OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING MAINLY DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE. HEIGHTS DO LOWER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND
MOVES SE AND OFFSHORE...AND A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W FROM IT MOVES
S...AND CROSSES TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
N AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE AFTERNOON WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL COOLING. AM CONCERNED FRONT
COULD HELP FOCUS CONVECTION OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THAT THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT DISTINGUISHES TODAY FROM RECENT
DAYS SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE WV LOWLANDS AS WELL. WRFS ARE
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON A ROUGHLY E-W LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVING S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SO
MAY FARTHER REFINE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS COULD BE VERY
NEARLY AN RLX-CENTRIC EVENT AS THE SHOWERS DO NOT POP UP UNTIL THE
FORCING IS S OF TE PBZ AREA...DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE GETTING
S OF THE AREA...AND DO NOT OCCUR MUCH FARTHER W THAN THE OHO RIVER.
BLENDED IN ADJMET TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE NARROW GUIDANCE
SPREAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS MORE OR LESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY.
MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING INDIVIDUAL WAVES CAUGHT UP
IN FLOW...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL
FILTER INTO FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE A
SLIGHT UPSWING IN POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH. CHARACTER OF PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...FORMING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. PULLED BACK SLIGHTLY ON SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS PRECIP DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DIURNAL
IN NATURE.
FOR TEMPS...SEEING SMALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...
AND VALUES ARE LOOK IN LINE WITH THE COOL PATTERN. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED BC GUIDANCE VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR THE LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ON A SLOW
RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR STRATOCU-ALTOCU PATTERN CONTINUES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BENEATH THE COOL AIR
THAT REMAINS ALOFT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF AREA AND
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HELPS TO FOCUS THESE
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT SHOULD
BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF. FLOW WILL BECOME N TO NW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
TODAY...PARTICULARLY AT THE HIGHER SITES...AND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FOG/REDUCED
VSBYS AT EKN MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
113 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
COMPLEX PATTERN NEXT 12-24 HRS. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP INTO THE
MID-STATE LATER TODAY...THEN MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF THE PICTURE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. ML/UL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL
BRING STRONG IMPULSE DOWN TOWARD 00Z HELPING TO REFIRE ISO-SCT
SHWRS/STORMS...WHICH WILL LAST 06-09Z. PASSING STORMS WILL DROP
VSBYS BUT CEILINGS LIKELY TO STAY LARGELY ABV 3KFT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG MAY BRING VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR RANGES AS WELL. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFT 12Z TUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID
STATE THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR SOUTH. NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE SO THAT ACTIVITY IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT. PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALREADY BEGINNING TO RETURN ACROSS NW
AREAS OF THE CWA. AREAS ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AS THE MORNING GOES ON. THUS...WE SHOULD
HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 80S OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS.
OTW...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY FROM
IL/IN. PROGS TAKE THE MOISTURE ACROSS MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN BY
TONIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE. SO...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL REDUCE MORNING POPS TO ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON
POTENTIAL. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ALLOW FOR
A LITTLE MORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON PARTIAL CLEARING.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRATIFORM RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ASSOCIATED WITH MCS OVER N MS/N AL. NORTH OF THE PRECIP...PATCHY
FOG AFFECTING CKV/CSV THIS MORNING..BUT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MCS OVER NORTHERN
AL/MS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH ALL RAIN EXITING MID TN
EARLY THIS MORNING. CLEARING THEN WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE I-24 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MENTION VCTS AT ALL AIRPORTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPO TSRA AT CKV/BNA
22-02Z...ALTHOUGH THIS TIMING REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS WEAK FRONT
MOVES BACK SOUTHWARD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/
SHORT TERM (THRU WED)...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MID TN EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGHER DEWPTS HELPED DRIVE A QLCS WIND DAMAGE EVENT
IN W TN/N MS LAST EVE...THAT MOVED INTO N AL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SYS
HAS DISSIPATED.
RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS FM NE OK TO W TN...MOVG
SOUTHEAST ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERRY-LEWIS-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STALLED FRONT WL SHIFT NORTH WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO FORM MID-LATE AFTN. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BETTER CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER WL BE WEST OF I-65.
SFC LOW PRES/COLD FRONT WL MOVE SOUTH THIS EVE. CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WL CONTINUE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH OF TN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE AREA WL START TO DRY OUT.
SFC HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BACK
TO MID TN TUE-WED.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
DRY PATTERN WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARMING TREND IS IN
STORE WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 W OF PLAT NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS WL BE IN THE
60S.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
304 PM PDT Mon Jun 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and
early this evening over the Idaho Panhandle and over the eastern
third of Washington. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and very
heavy rain will be possible between the hours of 4 PM and 8 PM in
places like Spokane, Lewiston, Pullman, Sandpoint, and Kellogg. A
strong cold front will sweep through the region overnight bringing
moderate to heavy rain to much of the Inland Northwest.
&&
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH IDAHO AND THE
EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...
This evening: A rare combination of deep moisture, instability,
frontal lift and wind shear has elevated the potential for severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening. We will be
monitoring the Idaho Panhandle and adjacent counties of eastern
Washington through this evening closely. Damaging wind gusts to 70
mph, hail to the size of quarters, and torrential rain will be a
possibility. There is a potential for a tornado or two given the
strong shear parameters. The added low level helicity in the
vicinity of the front combined with the relatively low Lifted
Condensation Level (LCL) heights could enhance the tornado
potential. However, forecasting tornadoes in this part of the
world is a tricky endeavor at best.
As of 2 PM, a strong frontal zone was draped near the
Washington/Idaho border. The axis of highest instability was from
Hells Canyon through St Maries to around Clark Fork in the north
Idaho Panhandle. The RUC model depicts surface based CAPE values
as high as 1400J/KG in the central and southern Idaho Panhandle.
There was very little surface based instability west of Priest
Lake, Davenport and Ritzville. Thick clouds and showers have kept
a lid on surface warming today. There may be a slight westward
push of the surface front through early evening as the surface low
swings into western Montana this evening, but the chances for
severe weather west of Lincoln and Adams counties will be very
low this evening.
As of 2 PM, cells were developing in eastern Oregon, but did not
appear to have tapped surface based instability. If these storms
can become surface based, they will have the potential to become
severe quickly. Mean 700-300mb flow of 50-60kts will push storms
to the north very quickly. Residents of the Idaho Panhandle and
far eastern Washington should be advised that storms will be
moving VERY fast (upwards of 50mph). Storms will also be moving
from south to north, a somewhat atypical direction.
Overnight: Deepening low pressure over eastern Montana will likely
bring rounds of moderate to heavy rain to central and eastern
Washington this evening through Tuesday morning. Upper level jet
coupling within the increasingly negatively tilted upper trough
suggest widespread rain amounts exceeding a half inch overnight. A
flash flood warning has been issued through early Tuesday morning
for the potential for heavy downpours with strong thunderstorms
over the Idaho Panhandle this evening, and the likelihood of
localized heavy rain associated with post-frontal precipitation
overnight.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Much cooler and showery weather will follow
the passage of the cold front tonight. Snow levels will plunge to
5000 feet in the Cascades by Tuesday morning. Accumulation on
roadways in the Cascades is not likely given the time of year, but
slushy mountain accumulations on grassy surfaces could occur. By
Tuesday night into Wednesday, snow levels in the Cascades and
Idaho Panhandle will fall as low as 4000-4500 feet. Lingering
deformation and unstable upslope flow in the the mountains of the
Idaho Panhandle suggest some slushy accumulations in the mountains
around Schweitzer, Lookout and Silver Mountains. /GKoch
Wednesday through Saturday...Progressive weather pattern continues
with jet stream positioning in very close proximity to Eastern
Washington and Northern Idaho during this time interval. Too low
pressure areas dumbbell round one another with the first, a cool
pool and associated trof influencing earlier periods lifting further
to the north and northwest into British Columbia while the second
low makes an approach in a northwest to southeast trajectory out
from the Gulf of Alaska. The second system making the northwest
to southeast approach has a well wrapped occluded frontal
zone/baroclinic band that is tied into a moderate subtropical
moisture tap that can currently be traced passing over the
Northern Aleutian Islands down and over to the west pacific. An
old typhoon, 04W Mawar, was absorbed into the extreme west end of
this long subtropical moisture tap yesterday. This transfer of
equatorial/tropical moisture and energy northward into the mid
latitudes will likely cause more spread in model solutions and
lower confidence some as far as speed and timing of system
passages in this part of the forecast...but for now will go with
current model solutions which take the comma head feature and
sweep its wet wrapped front through Eastern Washington and
Northern Idaho Thursday night into Friday before dropping the
bigger part of the low itself later Friday into Friday night. So
again cool conditionally unstable air-mass on the north side of
the jet stream continues to influence sensible weather for the
area so some mention of showery precipitation is maintained for
all locations. Such a dynamic forecast solution merits forecast
temps on the cool side of what would be considered normal for this
time of year along with robust and gusty winds at times due to the
earlier mentioned prolonged close proximity positioning of the jet
stream. /Pelatti
Saturday through Monday...Models are in good agreement of a closed
low over North Idaho Saturday afternoon closely moving east into
Sunday. With the low overhead on Saturday lots of shower activity
is expected with a slight chance of thunderstorms over Eastern
WA/N Idaho a cool and unstable air mass over the area. As the low
pulls away from the area Sunday an area of wrap around moisture
will rotate around the back side of the low into extreme Eastern
Washington and North Idaho. This will result in showers continuing
while the East Slopes of the Cascades and much of North Central
Washington should be seeing a drying trend with just a chance for
mountain showers. A weak ridge then will move over the area Monday
with dry conditions expected although a few mountain showers can
not be ruled out.
Temperatures will be well be 10 to 15 degrees below normal on
Saturday then gradually modifying into Monday as the weak ridge
moves in. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A strong stationary front lies across the state of
Washington this morning. West of the front, places like Moses
Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak will experience off and on showers this
afternoon through Tuesday morning as well as low stratus. East of
the front, Spokane, Pullman, Sandpoint, Lewiston and Kellogg are
under the gun for thunderstorms. Storms will have the potential to
produce wind gusts to 70 mph, hail to the size of quarters and
extremely heavy rain. Storms will likely move from south to north
at speeds of 45-55 mph. The strongest convection will likely occur
in the 00z-05z time frame. Low clouds, stratus, and moderate post-
frontal rain will occur overnight over eastern Washington and
north Idaho, including the Spokane area. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 48 53 45 60 37 65 / 100 90 50 30 20 30
Coeur d`Alene 50 53 42 53 37 64 / 100 90 60 40 30 30
Pullman 48 51 40 56 36 61 / 100 80 50 20 10 30
Lewiston 52 56 46 63 43 68 / 100 80 40 10 10 20
Colville 55 59 48 57 38 62 / 100 90 60 60 30 30
Sandpoint 53 53 42 50 37 62 / 100 100 70 70 40 30
Kellogg 47 50 41 51 37 59 / 100 100 70 60 20 30
Moses Lake 53 64 46 70 42 70 / 90 60 20 10 0 20
Wenatchee 51 61 46 68 46 69 / 80 50 20 0 0 30
Omak 52 63 47 64 39 69 / 90 70 30 20 20 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Central Panhandle
Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and
Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
SEVERE THUNDERStorm Watch until Midnight PDT tonight for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis
and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau.
SEVERE THUNDERStorm Watch until Midnight PDT tonight for Lower
Garfield and Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains-
Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
125 PM PDT Mon Jun 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and
early this evening over the Idaho Panhandle and over the eastern
third of Washington. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and very
heavy rain will be possible between the hours of 4 PM and 8 PM in
places like Spokane, Lewiston, Pullman, Sandpoint, and Kellogg. A
strong cold front will sweep through the region overnight bringing
moderate to heavy rain to much of the Inland Northwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Spokane, Whitman, Garfield, and Asotin counties in
Washington. In Idaho, the severe thunderstorm watch includes
Lewis, Nez Perce, Benewah, Kootenai, Bonner, Latah, Boundary, and
Shoshone counties. A flash flood watch will also be issued shortly
for much of Eastern Washington and North Idaho from 5 PM this
evening through Tuesday morning. Please see previous discussion
below for more details.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A strong stationary front lies across the state of
Washington this morning. West of the front, places like Moses
Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak will experience off and on showers this
afternoon through Tuesday morning as well as low stratus. East of
the front, Spokane, Pullman, Sandpoint, Lewiston and Kellogg are
under the gun for thunderstorms. Storms will have the potential to
produce wind gusts to 70 mph, hail to the size of quarters and
extremely heavy rain. Storms will likely move from south to north
at speeds of 45-55 mph. The strongest convection will likely occur
in the 00z-05z time frame. Low clouds, stratus, and moderate post-
frontal rain will occur overnight over eastern Washington and
north Idaho, including the Spokane area. /GKoch
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM PDT Mon Jun 4 2012/
Damaging wind gusts, large hail and locally heavy rain will be
possible this evening. Today has a rare combination of deep layer
moisture, strong frontal forcing, strong wind shear and deep layer
instability. The best chance for severe storms will be in the 4pm-
8pm time frame.
The forecast has been updated for today to attempt to fine tune
the timing of showers and thunderstorms. There are differences
between the 12z NAM and 12z GFS with the timing of the
initiation of convection over the Idaho Panhandle and the eastern
third of Washington. The HRRR (Rapid Refresh Model) sides with the
slower development of the NAM. I think that mid level capping will
likely hold thunderstorm activity over the Spokane Forecast area
at bay until 3pm or later. The cap will probably break over the
high terrain of central and northeast Oregon by mid afternoon. The
deepening mid level trough over Oregon combined with surface
heating over the elevated terrain should allow for initiation of
deep convection. In all likelihood a tight baroclinic band will be
in place along the Washington/Idaho border due to a stalled front.
The baroclinic band will be re-enforced through the day by
sunshine east of the front and cloud/showers west of it. Low level
thermal gradients like this can be highways for storms to track
along. The 15z HRRR suggests convection that develops over
northeast Oregon will track along this low level thermal gradient
this evening. The 700mb-300mb winds are progged to be 50kts this
evening, which is a good first guess for storm speed. Storm
direction will be south to north.
12z NAM Bulk shear values approaching 70kts between 0-6km (very
high values) are certainly supportive of supercell thunderstorms.
It will be interesting to see how storms evolve. The HRRR develops
a long-lived bow echo out of convection it develops over north
central Oregon. As far as threats, I am most concerned about
damaging wind gusts at this time. The fast storm motion
(anticipated 50kts) combined with the strong shear and steep low
level lapse rates suggest gusts to 70mph will be possible. Large
hail will be a threat, especially with storms with supercell
structures. If storms can maintain supercell structures through
the evening, there could even be a supercell tornado threat.
Supercells tracking along the south to north front in eastern
Washington may have the added low level helicity and a lower
lifted condensation level (LCL). These parameters could contribute
to a slightly higher threat for a supercell tornado in the Inland
Northwest.
Residents of the Inland Northwest should be alert this evening. No
need to panic, but system has the potential to produce storms that
are stronger than what we usually experience. And the fast motion
of these storms could catch folks unprepared. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 73 48 53 45 60 37 / 40 100 90 50 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 76 50 53 42 53 37 / 40 100 90 60 40 30
Pullman 76 48 51 40 56 36 / 50 100 80 50 20 10
Lewiston 81 52 56 46 63 43 / 50 100 70 40 10 10
Colville 74 55 59 48 57 38 / 50 100 90 60 60 30
Sandpoint 74 53 53 42 50 37 / 50 100 100 70 70 40
Kellogg 76 47 50 41 51 37 / 50 100 90 70 60 20
Moses Lake 65 53 64 46 70 42 / 80 90 40 20 10 0
Wenatchee 64 51 61 46 68 46 / 90 80 40 20 0 0
Omak 64 52 63 47 64 39 / 90 100 50 30 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flash Flood Watch from 5 PM PDT this afternoon through Tuesday
morning for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-
Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-
Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle.
SEVERE THUNDERStorm Watch until Midnight PDT tonight for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis
and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 5 PM PDT this afternoon through Tuesday
morning for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield
and Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast
Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-
Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau.
SEVERE THUNDERStorm Watch until Midnight PDT tonight for Lower
Garfield and Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains-
Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1208 PM PDT Mon Jun 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and
early this evening over the Idaho Panhandle and over the eastern
third of Washington. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and very
heavy rain will be possible between the hours of 4 PM and 8 PM in
places like Spokane, Lewiston, Pullman, Sandpoint, and Kellogg. A
strong cold front will sweep through the region overnight bringing
moderate to heavy rain to much of the Inland Northwest.
&&
...Severe thunderstorms possible this evening over the Idaho
Panhandle and eastern third of Washington...
.DISCUSSION...
Damaging wind gusts, large hail and locally heavy rain will be
possible this evening. Today has a rare combination of deep layer
moisture, strong frontal forcing, strong wind shear and deep layer
instability. The best chance for severe storms will be in the 4pm-
8pm time frame.
The forecast has been updated for today to attempt to fine tune
the timing of showers and thunderstorms. There are differences
between the 12z NAM and 12z GFS with the timing of the
initiation of convection over the Idaho Panhandle and the eastern
third of Washington. The HRRR (Rapid Refresh Model) sides with the
slower development of the NAM. I think that mid level capping will
likely hold thunderstorm activity over the Spokane Forecast area
at bay until 3pm or later. The cap will probably break over the
high terrain of central and northeast Oregon by mid afternoon. The
deepening mid level trough over Oregon combined with surface
heating over the elevated terrain should allow for initiation of
deep convection. In all likelihood a tight baroclinic band will be
in place along the Washington/Idaho border due to a stalled front.
The baroclinic band will be re-enforced through the day by
sunshine east of the front and cloud/showers west of it. Low level
thermal gradients like this can be highways for storms to track
along. The 15z HRRR suggests convection that develops over
northeast Oregon will track along this low level thermal gradient
this evening. The 700mb-300mb winds are progged to be 50kts this
evening, which is a good first guess for storm speed. Storm
direction will be south to north.
12z NAM Bulk shear values approaching 70kts between 0-6km (very
high values) are certainly supportive of supercell thunderstorms.
It will be interesting to see how storms evolve. The HRRR develops
a long-lived bow echo out of convection it develops over north
central Oregon. As far as threats, I am most concerned about
damaging wind gusts at this time. The fast storm motion
(anticipated 50kts) combined with the strong shear and steep low
level lapse rates suggest gusts to 70mph will be possible. Large
hail will be a threat, especially with storms with supercell
structures. If storms can maintain supercell structures through
the evening, there could even be a supercell tornado threat.
Supercells tracking along the south to north front in eastern
Washington may have the added low level helicity and a lower
lifted condensation level (LCL). These parameters could contribute
to a slightly higher threat for a supercell tornado in the Inland
Northwest.
Residents of the Inland Northwest should be alert this evening. No
need to panic, but system has the potential to produce storms that
are stronger than what we usually experience. And the fast motion
of these storms could catch folks unprepared. /GKoch
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A strong stationary front lies across the state of
Washington this morning. West of the front, places like Moses
Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak will experience off and on showers this
afternoon through Tuesday morning as well as low stratus. East of
the front, Spokane, Pullman, Sandpoint, Lewiston and Kellogg are
under the gun for thunderstorms. Storms will have the potential to
produce wind gusts to 70 mph, hail to the size of quarters and
extremely heavy rain. Storms will likely move from south to north
at speeds of 45-55 mph. The strongest convection will likely occur
in the 00z-05z time frame. Low clouds, stratus, and moderate post-
frontal rain will occur overnight over eastern Washington and
north Idaho, including the Spokane area. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 73 48 53 45 60 37 / 40 100 90 50 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 76 50 53 42 53 37 / 40 100 90 60 40 30
Pullman 76 48 51 40 56 36 / 50 100 80 50 20 10
Lewiston 81 52 56 46 63 43 / 50 100 70 40 10 10
Colville 74 55 59 48 59 38 / 50 100 90 60 60 30
Sandpoint 74 53 53 42 51 37 / 50 100 100 70 70 40
Kellogg 76 47 50 41 51 37 / 50 100 90 70 60 20
Moses Lake 65 53 64 46 70 42 / 80 90 40 20 10 0
Wenatchee 64 51 61 46 68 46 / 90 80 40 20 0 0
Omak 64 52 63 47 64 39 / 90 100 50 30 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1212 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
IOWA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN AREA OF 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS NOTED ON THE
03.03Z RAP.
03.00Z MODELS OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
ONLY DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF WEAK FORCING SIGNALS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. RAP ALSO INDICATES THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. DID PLACE
A LOWER END PROBABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH 15Z TO COVER THE
DEPARTING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LATER TODAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME VERY WEAK
850-700MB QG CONVERGENCE WILL INTERACT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF
500 J/KG-1000 J/KG TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID CONTINUE CHANCES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER THAT.
DEPENDING UP HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY AND HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FOG POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT VORTICITY IS MORE CHANNELED WITH THIS FEATURE. ONCE
AGAIN MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES ACROSS WISCONSIN.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE SOME WEAK CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA AND THUS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
HIGH THEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR DRY WEATHER. AS THE
RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE RIDGE WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN IT
OUT...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOWARDS THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF IT WILL
RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY BY SUNDAY FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
1212 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN VCSH
MENTION AT KLSE AND LEAVE OUT AT KRST DUE TO CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WEST OF THE RIVER. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THUNDER THREAT AS WELL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ONLY SHOWING
500-800J/KG. BELIEVE THUNDER WILL REMAIN ISOLD AND MAINLY EAST OF
KLSE. LOOK FOR THE CONVECTION TO SIMMER DOWN/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. CONCERN THEN ARISES FOR FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING/LIGHT WINDS AND A DAMP
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SHOWERS OCCURRED. MAY BE ENOUGH WIND
ALOFT TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED SOME...BUT FEEL THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY VCNTY OF KLSE.
WILL INCLUDE BCFG IN THE KLSE TAF IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KRST. SCATTERED
-SHRA ACTIVITY AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON.
BESIDES THE BCFG AT KLSE...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS/VIS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...RABERDING
AVIATION...DAS