Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/03/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
753 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.UPDATE...ALL STORMS HAVE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
WITH CONSIDERABLE STABILIZATION TAKING PLACE. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY END BY 10-11 PM WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS DUE TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING ARE FINALLY
RELAXING AND WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS BUT MORE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOME DRYING
OF THE AIRMASS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
..CORRECTION FOR A FEW TYPOS IN 1ST PARAGRAPH...
SHORT TERM...WEAK QG ASCENT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN COLORADO AT
THIS HOUR AHEAD OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. SCATTERED T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY HAVE BEGUN TO
MOVE OUT ONTO THE NEARBY PLAINS. CAPES AND LAPSE RATES NOT ALL THAT
GREAT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AT THIS HOUR UNDER THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER.
ON THE PLAINS...ACCORDING TO THE RUC AND LAPS SFC BASED CAPES IN THE
300-600 J/KG RANGE WITHIN THE I-25 CORRIDOR UNDER INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS WHERE SKIES WERE
STILL MOSTLY SUNNY...CAPES IN THE 700-1500 J/KG RANGE.
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SCATTERED T-STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR WILL MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS WHERE THEY/LL LIKELY
MERGE INTO A NEARLY SOLID NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF STORMS. COULD SEE A
FEW STORMS EAST OF I-25 AND SOUTH OF I-76 BECOMING SEVERE EVEN WITH
SFC DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 40S. VERTICAL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT GREAT
TODAY...SO THREAT OF TORNADOES IS QUITE LOW. HOWEVER CAN/T RULE OUT
A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO/LANDSPOUT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAY EVEN
SEE ONE AS CLOSE AS D.I.A. ACARS SOUNDING AT DENVER AS OF 19Z DRY
ADIABATIC BELOW 500MB WITH A LARGE SUB-CLOUD TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD.
IT/S LOOKING FAR LESS LIKELY WE/LL SEE ANY HAIL INSIDE THE I-25
CORRIDOR WITH FREEZE LEVEL CURRENTLY UP AROUND 15 THSND FT MSL.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS WITH POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 50KTS. HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH ALSO POSSIBLE ROUGHLY
SOUTHEAST OF AN AKRON-TO-ELBERT LINE AFTER 21Z TODAY...WITH EVEN
LARGER STONES WITH MERGING STORM CELLS.
THIS STORM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF AN AKRON-TO-LIMON
LINE BY MID-LEVEL WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD SEE STEADY
DRYING AND CLEARING FROM WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAVE OF THE TROUGH.
ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE MID-LEVEL DRYING AND WARMING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. ON THE PLAINS...WEAK
NORTHERLY SFC WINDS GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTERLY ACCORDING TO
MODELS BY MIDDAY WHICH APPEARS TO GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS/ T-STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS QUITE WARM ON SUNDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS BEFORE
CLOUDS DEVELOP. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN IF ANY IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY WHERE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRIER.
LONG TERM....LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS AND THEN HAVING THE TROUGH LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY. FOR COLORADO...THERE ARE DIFFERENCE WITH
THE DETAILS. THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
DIFFER FOR NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BROAD BRUSH OF LOW POPS FOR NEXT WEEK. WOULD
EXPECT A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE AREA.
BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL FLATTEN AS THE FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW OVER
COLORADO TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY...WHICH MAY BRING FEWER SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AT DENVER
AREA AIRPORTS NOW THROUGH 22Z...WITH THE BIGGEST RISK FROM STORMS
BEING STRONG MICROBURST WINDS AND LIGHTNING. COULD BRIEFLY SEE ILS
CEILINGS WITH PRECIPITATION WITH PASSING STORMS. SMALL HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE IN AREAS EAST OF I-25...POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER. WINDS FROM HIGH BASED T-STORMS COULD GUSTS TO 45KTS
POTENTIALLY CAUSING SERIOUS IMPACT TO AIRPORT OPERATIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE DENVER METRO AREA
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH DRIER WINDS FLOWING DOWN OFF THE
FOOTHILLS. BY LATE THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE THE NORMAL DRAINAGE
WIND PATTERN SET UP UNDER CLEARING SKIES BY 06Z TONIGHT.
HYDROLOGY...THE RISK FOR FLOODING AT THE FRONT RANGE BURN SCARS
INCLUDING THE FOURMILE BURN SCAR WEST OF BOULDER LOOKS LOW FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE
0.25 TO 0.40 OF RAIN IN UNDER 40 MINUTES WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR
HIGH WATER RUNOFF. RISK OF ANY FLOODING SHOULD COME TO AN END
AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
237 PM MDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)
...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TOMORROW...
CURRENTLY...
A COOL FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WAS JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. WINDS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WERE ALREADY TURNING UPSLOPE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION IS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY LATER TODAY (AS SHOWN BY LATEST
HRRR)...BUT THIS CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...SIMULATIONS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON
CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR IS RATHER DRY BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT
PESSIMISTIC AS I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW TSRA DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF
THE MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHAT I HAVE DONE IS
KEPT POPS IN THE FCST...BUT HAVE DECREASED ALL OF VALUES INTO THE
ISOLATED CATEGORY.
LATER TONIGHT...
MOISTURE IS FCST TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS AS FLOW JUST
OFF THE SFC BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS IS FCST TO BRING 45-50F
DEPOTS INTO A GOOD PART OF THE PLAINS BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. SOME LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS.
TOMORROW...
A CLASSIC "DAY 2" SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IS LIKELY TOMORROW. ALL
MODELS SHOW BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IMPINGING INTO FAR SE
CO BY 21Z TOMORROW. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG BUT
SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR (AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY) ALONG WITH 8 TO
9C/KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ALL MODELS ARE
PRINTING OUT CONVECTIVE QPF AND I HAVE NO REASON NOT TO BELIEVE THIS
OUTPUT. GIVEN THIS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ROTATING CONVECTION
TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE PLAINS MAY SEE SVR WX TOMORROW...IT
APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM EADS...TO LAS ANIMAS TO KIM...AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT AND BEST CAPE WILL BE IN THIS REGION. SPC DAY2 HAS THIS
AREA OUTLOOKED. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND WIND...ALTHOUGH A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER BACA COUNTY. GIVEN THE
W-NW FLOW ALOFT...ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/SREF ALL SHOW
0-6 KM BULK SHEARS OF 35-40 KTS...SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50`S AT 00Z SUNDAY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE GFS SHOWS THE MOST INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE
VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT
FEEL A MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL THE APPROPRIATE SOLUTION IN THIS
CASE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
KANSAS BORDER WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. BOTH MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AROUND 00Z MONDAY...THE NAM SHOWS CONVECTION
FIRING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 50S AND SBCAPES OVER 1500 J/KG. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...SHOWS DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 50...HALF AS MUCH CAPE...AND NO QPF
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. I FEEL THE NAM IS OVERDONE IN THIS
CASE...BUT STILL FEEL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. POPS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS WERE RAISED IN THESE
AREAS.
MONDAY-FRIDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COLORADO BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE HIGH BASED/MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WEAK STEERING
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THEM MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FAIRLY WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
PACIFIC TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWEST. MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. THE EC DIGS THE TROUGH DEEPER
INTO UTAH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS IS FARTHER
NORTHWEST AND WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT INTO
WESTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS IF THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
-PJC
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIODS AT KCOS
AND KPUB. ATTM...PLAN TO MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THESE TWO SITES
AND LET LATER AVIATION FCSTS FINE TUNE THE THUNDER THREAT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER AT KCOS AND KPUB
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THREAT TOO LOW TO EXPLICITLY MENTION IN
TAF (IF RADAR TRENDS CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TAFS FCST WILL BE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY). OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34/81
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
236 PM MDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE RIDGES NEARS. CAPES ARE UP TO 300 J/KG
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE...NOT SURE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND YET.
THE HRRR SHOWS THIS WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WILL HAVE LOW POPS THROUGH 04Z AND THEN NO MENTION OF
WEATHER UNTIL SATURDAY.
AIRMASS TO WARM A LITTLE MORE ON SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WELL INTO THE 80S. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHT
WITH DEW POINTS HANGING IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATE TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE
THAT GREAT...SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW. THOUGH A
FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. IT WILL BE WARMER
AND DRIER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
...ELEVATING THE FIRE DANGER...THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BE WEAK WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER COLORADO. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A
MONSOON SETUP FOR A SHORT TIME BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THE MDLS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER
THE NERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. ALL OF THIS ALREADY ADDRESSED IN THE
GRIDS SO NO ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. THE FLOW ALOFT MAY INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY SO MAYBE SOME MORE WIND BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A WEAK SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 03Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO
30 KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOW WINDS...SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH 03Z AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY 06Z. ON
SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. IF ANY STORMS FORM...THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH STORM
MOVEMENTS AROUND 20-25 MPH...ANY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE SHORT IN
DURATION.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2012
.AVIATION...
MAIN AVN CONCERN FOR FRI WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...IN PARTICULAR FROM ABOUT 20Z TO 03Z.
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE VC PIKES PEAK AND THE ERN MTN RANGES...SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE KCOS TAF. MUCH LOWER CHANCES AT KPUB
AND KALS...BUT CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD STORM MOVING AWAY
FROM THE MTS. MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT IS EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON
ALONG AND E OF I-25...FOR STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL. ROSE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)
CURRENTLY...
AS OF 2 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE SANGRES AND
SAN JUAN MTNS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TEMPS OVER THE REGION WERE ON THE COOLER
SIDE...WITH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE PLAINS IN THE 70-75 RANGE. A
WEAK DIURNAL WIND REGIME WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
REST OF AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE MTNS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE S SANGRES AND RATON
MESA REGION. BOTH LOCAL WRF AND HRRR ARE SHOWING HEAVIER QPF
BREAKING OUT THESE REGIONS DURING THIS TIME PD. ONCE ACTIVITY GETS
GOING...IT SHOULD MOVE IN A SE DIRECTION GIVEN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
MARGINAL SVR HAIL AND SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH STORMS
GIVEN THE SHEAR IN PLACE.
ONE ISSUE I AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT IS SOME CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS HINTING AT THIS
BUT OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE PLAINS ON THE DRY SIDE. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SILENT POPS OVER THIS REGION AND ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO ADJUST
POPS IF WARRANTED.
TONIGHT...
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SIMULATIONS DO SHOW A MCS DEVELOPING OVER W NE/SW NE MOVING EAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF OUR
CWA AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS W KS.
TOMORROW...
COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH AFORMENTIONED MCS. WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY N WINDS...25-30 MPH
IN THE MORNING...OVER THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY E SXNS OF EL PASO
COUNTY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TRANSISTION TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...AND
BEST CHANCE OF POPS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE OVER E FACING SLOPES OF E
MTNS. DEPENDING IF THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...WE MAY
SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE RATON MESA REGION LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD BE ABOUT 4-8F WARMER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISOLATED TSRA FRI EVENING SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ON SAT...NICE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD ADVECT A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. MODEL PERFORMANCE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
SUGGESTS GFS DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60F ARE SLIGHTLY
OVERDONE...THOUGH EVEN GOING WITH LOWER NAM NUMBERS IN THE 40S TO
50S YIELDS CAPES WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS EAST OF I-25 BY LATE IN THE DAY. STILL APPEARS WEAK WAVE
WILL WIGGLE EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE AS WELL...ENHANCING UPWARD
MOTION OVER THE AREA INTO SAT EVENING. SOME THREAT OF A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO OVER THE PLAINS NEAR THE KS BORDER...WHERE DEEPER
INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS COINCIDE. THUS
CONTINUED TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AT
LEAST A SCATTERED MENTION IN MOST EASTERN MOUNTAIN AND PLAINS
ZONES. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS DRIER AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS PUSHED
EAST...THOUGH LATEST MODELS KEEP SURFACE DEWPOINTS HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. STILL DON`T SEE MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED TSRA OVER MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AS STEERING
FLOW IS WEAK AS UPPER RIDGE IS OVERHEAD. SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS STAY
WARM BOTH SAT AND SUN AS 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREEP BACK WESTWARD MON IN
THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING AN
UPTURN IN TSRA OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK UPPER LOW TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE MAY ALSO
AID IN UPWARD MOTION...AT LEAST THROUGH MON EVENING. UPPER TROUGH
INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION TUE/WED...WITH DRYLINE SHARPENING UP
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAY THUS SEE DAILY ROUNDS OF TSRA ALONG
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE EACH AFTERNOON TUE-THU...WHILE MOUNTAINS
UNFORTUNATELY STAY MAINLY DRY AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY THROUGH MID-
WEEK. --10
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PASSING
TSRA AT KCOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE KCOS REGION TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH MAY OCCUR AFTER FROPA. NO OTHER SENSIBLE
WX IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FROPA.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
44/50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1028 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2012
.AVIATION...
MAIN AVN CONCERN FOR FRI WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...IN PARTICULAR FROM ABOUT 20Z TO 03Z.
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE VC PIKES PEAK AND THE ERN MTN RANGES...SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN 3THE KCOS TAF. MUCH LOWER CHANCES AT KPUB
AND KALS...BUT CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD STORM MOVING AWAY
FROM THE MTS. MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT IS EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON
ALONG AND E OF I-25...FOR STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL. ROSE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)
CURRENTLY...
AS OF 2 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE SANGRES AND
SAN JUAN MTNS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TEMPS OVER THE REGION WERE ON THE COOLER
SIDE...WITH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE PLAINS IN THE 70-75 RANGE. A
WEAK DIURNAL WIND REGIME WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
REST OF AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE MTNS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE S SANGRES AND RATON
MESA REGION. BOTH LOCAL WRF AND HRRR ARE SHOWING HEAVIER QPF
BREAKING OUT THESE REGIONS DURING THIS TIME PD. ONCE ACTIVITY GETS
GOING...IT SHOULD MOVE IN A SE DIRECTION GIVEN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
MARGINAL SVR HAIL AND SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH STORMS
GIVEN THE SHEAR IN PLACE.
ONE ISSUE I AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT IS SOME CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS HINTING AT THIS
BUT OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE PLAINS ON THE DRY SIDE. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SILENT POPS OVER THIS REGION AND ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO ADJUST
POPS IF WARRANTED.
TONIGHT...
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SIMULATIONS DO SHOW A MCS DEVELOPING OVER W NE/SW NE MOVING EAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF OUR
CWA AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS W KS.
TOMORROW...
COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH AFORMENTIONED MCS. WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY N WINDS...25-30 MPH
IN THE MORNING...OVER THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY E SXNS OF EL PASO
COUNTY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TRANSISTION TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...AND
BEST CHANCE OF POPS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE OVER E FACING SLOPES OF E
MTNS. DEPENDING IF THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...WE MAY
SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE RATON MESA REGION LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD BE ABOUT 4-8F WARMER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISOLATED TSRA FRI EVENING SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ON SAT...NICE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD ADVECT A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. MODEL PERFORMANCE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
SUGGESTS GFS DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60F ARE SLIGHTLY
OVERDONE...THOUGH EVEN GOING WITH LOWER NAM NUMBERS IN THE 40S TO
50S YIELDS CAPES WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS EAST OF I-25 BY LATE IN THE DAY. STILL APPEARS WEAK WAVE
WILL WIGGLE EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE AS WELL...ENHANCING UPWARD
MOTION OVER THE AREA INTO SAT EVENING. SOME THREAT OF A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO OVER THE PLAINS NEAR THE KS BORDER...WHERE DEEPER
INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS COINCIDE. THUS
CONTINUED TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AT
LEAST A SCATTERED MENTION IN MOST EASTERN MOUNTAIN AND PLAINS
ZONES. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS DRIER AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS PUSHED
EAST...THOUGH LATEST MODELS KEEP SURFACE DEWPOINTS HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. STILL DON`T SEE MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED TSRA OVER MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AS STEERING
FLOW IS WEAK AS UPPER RIDGE IS OVERHEAD. SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS STAY
WARM BOTH SAT AND SUN AS 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE STATE.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREEP BACK WESTWARD MON IN
THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING AN
UPTURN IN TSRA OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK UPPER LOW TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE MAY ALSO
AID IN UPWARD MOTION...AT LEAST THROUGH MON EVENING. UPPER TROUGH
INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION TUE/WED...WITH DRYLINE SHARPENING UP
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAY THUS SEE DAILY ROUNDS OF TSRA ALONG
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE EACH AFTERNOON TUE-THU...WHILE MOUNTAINS
UNFORTUNATELY STAY MAINLY DRY AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY THROUGH MID-
WEEK. --10
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PASSING
TSRA AT KCOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE KCOS REGION TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH MAY OCCUR AFTER FROPA. NO OTHER SENSIBLE
WX IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FROPA.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
44/50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1101 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE NECESSARY THIS MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL REMAINING OFF THE COAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND A LARGE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM PALM BEACH TO MIAMI-DADE. HERE ARE SOME TOTALS THUS
FAR FROM A FEW AREAS OF INTEREST:
24 HR TOTALS (8AM YESTERDAY THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING):
DOWNTOWN MIAMI: ~1.5"
BROWARD (SOUTHERN): 2.38"
NAPLES/GULF COAST: 0.10"
LAKE REGION: 0.10-0.20"
CENTRAL/NORTHERN BROWARD: 1-2"
DORAL AREA: AROUND 3"
ANOTHER LARGE BATCH OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS
JUST WEST OF KEY WEST AS OF 1030 AM THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE LATEST HRRR CYCLE GENERALLY LINES
UP WELL WITH THIS CURRENT PATTERN AND QUICKLY BEGINS TO DEVELOP
MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREAS FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
LATEST HPC RAINFALL FORECAST INDICATES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
REACHING THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED DURING THESE EVENTS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
CERTAINLY BECOME A POSSIBILITY WHERE THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY BECOMES
CONCENTRATED.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE RAINFALL WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, MAINLY DUE TO SOME NOTABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTION VERIFY, ELEVATED RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL PERSIST WELL
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TRENDING DOWN, WHEREAS, IF THE FASTER
SOLUTION VERIFIES, DRYING COULD BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. 85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER...WITH SOUTH
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH DEEP MOISTURE...A
SUBTROPICAL JET...AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
PREVAILING IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS FOR 4-8 HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF HEATING KEPT CONDITIONS IN THE
MVFR RANGE. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...BUT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE...BUT OVERALL IN A
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...WITH VIS/CIGS IMPROVING AFTER 06Z.
AVIATION...BNB/AK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012/
.FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
.A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY WHILE GRADUALLY DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO AT LEAST ONE
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE, A SEPARATE
SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL FROM THE YUCATAN NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES, OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME EMBEDDED DEEP
CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS FROM BROWARD COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 2 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE LAYER OF DRY AIR STILL
PERSISTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
BUT, AS SYNOPTIC AND LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASE THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME PRIMED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT, WHICH WILL
INCREASE BOTH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION. ALSO,
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT (80-90 KT) OF AN UPPER JET WILL LIE JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE MORNING, RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT CAN MATERIALIZE, A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS QUITE
LIKELY. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST ORGANIZED RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING, GENERALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE BUILDS AND EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD INDUCE
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUBSIDENCE, WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT SOME
GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT SLOWER IN MOVING THE TROUGH TO THE EAST,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
BY MONDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH THE WARMEST
DAYTIME TEMPS OVER EASTERN AREAS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM WESTERN CUBA TOWARD KEY WEST IN ADDITION TO A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY AND 50 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET IS LEADING TO A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLAND MONROE AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARDS TOWARD KAPF OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES INCLUDING
MIA...TMB...OPF NORTHWARD TOWARDS KFLL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS DECIDE TO DEVELOP. MVFR CIGS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS COULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE HAS PREVAILING IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS FOR 4-8
HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. ATTM...KEPT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AND
VIS...BUT IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH FLORIDA AND HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE PREVAILING MVFR VIS/CIG COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.
MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AND THEN
A BIT MORE BY SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
PERIODS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPIER CONDITIONS. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 71 88 74 / + 60 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 75 88 76 / + 60 40 20
MIAMI 84 75 89 76 / + 60 40 30
NAPLES 82 73 88 74 / + 60 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL
COLLIER-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-FAR SOUTH
MIAMI DADE-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM BEACH-MAINLAND MONROE-METRO
BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
316 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES TODAY...
CURRENT...WEAK COOL FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE OH VLY TO NEAR SABINE PASS. AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY SWD INTO THE THE CTRL GOMEX WITH
A WEAKER SHORT WAVE RIPPLE NEAR/NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
INCREASING H25 DIVERGENCE EVIDENT IN RUC H25 ANALYSIS FIELDS AS
DEEPENING SW FLOW ADVECTS HIGH MEAN PWAT AIR OVHD. THIS INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS KEEPING A CANOPY OF
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE PENINSULA.
STATEWIDE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS BREAKING OUT JUST
UPSTREAM OF ECFL. ACTIVITY HAS CONGEALED INTO TWO WSW-ENE ORIENTED
BANDS COLOCATED WITH THE BEST FORCED ASCENT. THE FIRST EXTENDED
FROM LAKE COUNTY TO THE NATURE COAST WHILE THE SECOND WAS FROM MIA
TO EVERGLADES CITY. BOTH OF THESE BANDS EXTEND WELL OUT INTO THE
ERN GOMEX.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE PENINSULA TODAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLOUDY/
WET DAY OVER MOST OF THE PENINSULA. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SUCH
STRONG SCENT UPSTREAM...THE ACTUAL AREAL QPF IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE YUCATAN EJECTS NEWD THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE GOMEX TROUGH WHICH WILL
REACH THE ERN GOMEX THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP INTO OR THROUGH ECFL
00Z-06Z...GETTING EAST OF THE STATE BY 12Z. WHILE VERY HIGH PWAT
AIR (2.0"-2.25") OVERSPREADS THE CWA BY 18Z MID/UPPER ASCENT KEEPS
WIDESPREAD MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...WHICH LIMITS SURFACE
HEATING/INSTABILITY TO SOME DEGREE. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
M80S...WITH U80S CONFINED TO AREAS WHICH SEE PEEKS OF SUN ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIKELY FILL IN QUICKLY IN THESE SPOTS. HAVE
FINALLY ACQUIESCED TO MAV MOS GUIDANCE - 80/90 POPS OVER MOST OF
THE CWA...AND NEAR 100 FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND LAKE OKEE.
00Z 24-HOUR QPF (7 AM FRI-7 AM SAT) RANGED FROM AROUND 0.50" NORTH
TO 1.50" OR SO SOUTH. THE NEW 06Z PROGS ARE EVEN LOWER...GENERALLY
IN THE 0.25 TO 0.75 RANGE OVER ALL BUT MARTIN COUNTY (1.0"-1.25").
COORD WITH ADJACENT OFFICES ON HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND AGREE THAT
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER/INSTABILITY ISSUES...A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT
NEEDED FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ATTM. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN/URBAN TYPE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN...AND WILL ADDRESS AS
SUCH IN THE HWO/G-HWO SUITE.
EXPECT PRECIP (SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS) TO CONTINUE REDEVELOPING
WELL AFTER SUNSET GIVEN CONTINUED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH
OF H50 TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD...FINALLY TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.
SAT-SUN... LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ADVECTS A DRIER AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INTERIOR AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY THE SEA BREEZE
FORMS AND PUSHES THROUGH...AT THE COAST.
MON-THU...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST RESULTS IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS USUALLY MEAN A WARM DAY AND NO EXCEPTION THIS TIME
PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INTERIOR AND LOW 90S THE
RULE ALONG THE COAST. THE DEEP WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT THE INLAND PUSH OF ANY SEA BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING STORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MULTILAYERED CLOUDS PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD
THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PREVAILING
OVC-BKN VFR CIGS WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN CLOUDS
AND PRECIP THROUGH 06Z...TAPERING OFF THEREAFTER.
&&
.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY DATA SHOWS SEAS CONTINUING TO RUN ABOUT 2-3FT
FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT IN
OFFSHORE 10-15KT FLOW REGIME. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/SEAS IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
SAT-TUE...SURFACE RIDGE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH RESULTS IN A WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW. LIMITED WINDS TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT TUE/THUR MORNING
AS IT APPEARS THERE WAS FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS WED
TIME FRAME THEREFORE FOR THIS CYCLE LIMITED THE OFFSHORE WINDS
SEBASTIAN NORTH TO 20 KNOTS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST STEERING WINDS WILL
TEND TO PUSH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE MAINLAND BACK TO THE
COAST AND NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE AND 1 TO 3
FEET NEARSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 71 89 67 / 80 30 20 10
MCO 84 70 91 69 / 80 40 20 10
MLB 84 72 90 69 / 90 50 30 10
VRB 84 72 90 69 / 90 50 30 10
LEE 85 71 91 69 / 80 30 20 10
SFB 85 71 93 69 / 80 40 20 10
ORL 84 72 93 72 / 80 40 20 10
FPR 84 73 90 69 / 100 50 30 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT GRAPHICS....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM WESTERN CUBA TOWARD KEY
WEST IN ADDITION TO A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 50 KNOT SUBTROPICAL
JET IS LEADING TO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLAND MONROE AND
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTHWARDS TOWARD KAPF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES INCLUDING MIA...TMB...OPF NORTHWARD
TOWARDS KFLL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS
DECIDE TO DEVELOP. MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TAF SITES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE HAS PREVAILING IFR VIS
AND MVFR CIGS FOR 4-8 HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. ATTM...KEPT
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AND VIS...BUT IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH FLORIDA AND
HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PREVAILING MVFR VIS/CIG COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012/
UPDATE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATES. A STEADY
STREAM OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE CARIBBEAN IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALSO
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING. ALSO
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IS A VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
AND THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THE HRRR ALSO INDICATES CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A RAPID INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AFT 09Z.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012/
AVIATION...A VRY MOIST SW WND FLOW ALOFT WITH AN IMPULSE OF
INSTABILITY MOVG NE FM THE W CUBA/YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA WL LEAD
TO CLDY SKIES AND INCRG CHC OF RA/ISOLD TSRA MOVG ONTO THE W COAST
BUT MOST LIKELY NOT MAKING TO THE E COAST THRU 06Z. VFR XPCTD ALL
TERMINALS THRU 06Z XCPT PSBL MVFR CIG/VSBY AT KAPF BUT NOT DVLPG
E COAST TIL 12Z. AFT 12Z NMRS/WDSPRD RA WITH ISOLD TSRA PSBL WITH
WDSPRD MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL. SFC WND DCRG TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BUT ON
E COAST SSE MOSTLY BUT LGT SSW FLOW PSBL 06Z TO 12Z WITH WNDS BCMG
SSE AND 10 TO 15 KTS. AT KAPF SW WND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 09Z
THEN BCMG SE-SSE WITH W COAST SEA BRZE AFT 16Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A FEW NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED AND PLENTY OF
MID/UPPER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM
THE CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THIS UPPER PATTERN AND SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER OR
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR GRADUALLY FILLING IN
THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. THE LATEST MODEL PWAT VALUES REFLECT THIS AND
INCREASE INTO THE 2-2.5 INCH RANGE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THIS
SURGE MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. A BLEND OF THE RAW
MODEL QPF AND GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS REACHING THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THESE
TOTALS AND KEEPS THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE LOCAL AREA OR SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED
DURING THESE EVENTS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BECOME A
POSSIBILITY WHERE THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY BECOMES CONCENTRATED.
CONSIDERING THE RECENT RAINFALL ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST WEEK OR
TWO...INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR
UPDATES THROUGH THIS TIME AS A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DESPITE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...A GENERAL DRYING PATTERN WILL BE
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS DRY AIR COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING CONDITIONS COME SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS DRIER AIR
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTIES AT
THIS TIME...WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS TIME AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ANTICIPATED
EACH DAY. WITH THE MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUING OUT OF THE WEST THE
BEST RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS.
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING INTO THE MODERATE RANGE INTO SATURDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PERIODS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPIER
CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND ANY HEAVY SHOWER OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION...
SKIES WERE STARING TO CLEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE TO SET UP OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND. SO WILL SHOW VRB 05
KTS UNTIL ABOUT 20Z THEN A 160 TO 170 DEGREE DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND PUSH BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL PUT IN
A VCTS IN FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FROM 20Z UNTIL 01Z.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES FOR
TONIGHT.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 71 89 75 / 70 60 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 75 89 78 / 70 60 40 30
MIAMI 87 75 90 77 / 70 60 40 30
NAPLES 83 72 88 73 / 80 60 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...14/MJB
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
IFR STRATUS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITHIN SHARP MID LVL TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS. A DRYING TREND
AND IMPROVING CIGS TO LOW MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS BACKING LOW LVL FLOW ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO ADVECT IN.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT SHIFTS NORTH INTO MICHIGAN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012/
SHORT TERM... /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO STG TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH IOWA. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED N INTO MICHIGAN...TAKING STEADIER PRECIP
WITH IT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS MADE IT INTO MUCH OF THE
AREA...KEEPING PRECIP MORE SCT IN NATURE. MOST LOCATIONS MISSED OUT
ON BEST RAINFALL...RECEIVING LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THE
EXCEPTION WAS NW OF KSBN TO THE LAKE WHERE BIT OF DEFORMATION ZONE
SETUP TO ALLOW FOR THREE QUARTERS TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FALL.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE NW WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH AS MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP SHIFTS SE TO HOPEFULLY GIVE PORTIONS
OF NW OHIO SOME MORE RAINFALL WITH LIMA OH ONLY SEEING A HUNDREDTH
OF AN INCH SO FAR. HRRR HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON TRENDS WITH
ACTIVITY SLOWLY WINDING DOWN ACROSS NW 2/3RDS AND UPSWING IN PRECIP
AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO OHIO WITH BAND OF SHOWERS WORKING NW SOMEWHAT.
LAST HALF HOUR OR SO OF RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE UNDERWAY.
KEEPING FORECAST SIMPLE HAVE ONLY WENT WITH CHC SHOWER WORDING IN
ALL AREAS EXCEPT EAST QUARTER OR SO WHERE PRECIP LIKELY TO AFFECT
FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS PRETTY STEADY THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLE EVEN FALLING SOME AS
COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND WINDS INCREASE AS A RESULT OF
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
SPOKE OF ENERGY AND NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. BACKED OFF HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY
NORTH WITH LITTLE OVERALL DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED.
OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR LINGERING SPRINKLES...DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY. PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND TRACK ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FEATURE WILL BE MSTR STARVED BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SPARK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES OR MORE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS SAT NGT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
LONG TERM...
HIGH LAT BLOCK OVR THE NORTH ATL SPURNING STG NEG NAO WHICH WILL
CONT TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS PD RESULTING IN ANOMALOUS NRLY FLW ACRS
MUCH OF THE ERN US AND WHICH WILL PUSH ACTIVE POLAR JET SOUTH ACRS
THE GULF COAST. THUS XPC DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WX TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PD. OP GFS SOLUTION CONTS TO LOOK LIKE AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION SUN NIGHT/MON W/CONV FEEDBACK NOTED ALOFT. ALL OTHER MED
RANGE SOLUTIONS AT THAT RANGE ARE DRY YET AM FORCED TO HOLD ONTO 20S
FOR COLLABORATION.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.
MI...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
355 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SHORT TERM... /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO STG TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH IOWA. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED N INTO MICHIGAN...TAKING STEADIER PRECIP
WITH IT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS MADE IT INTO MUCH OF THE
AREA...KEEPING PRECIP MORE SCT IN NATURE. MOST LOCATIONS MISSED OUT
ON BEST RAINFALL...RECEIVING LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THE
EXCEPTION WAS NW OF KSBN TO THE LAKE WHERE BIT OF DEFORMATION ZONE
SETUP TO ALLOW FOR THREE QUARTERS TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FALL.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE NW WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH AS MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP SHIFTS SE TO HOPEFULLY GIVE PORTIONS
OF NW OHIO SOME MORE RAINFALL WITH LIMA OH ONLY SEEING A HUNDREDTH
OF AN INCH SO FAR. HRRR HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON TRENDS WITH
ACTIVITY SLOWLY WINDING DOWN ACROSS NW 2/3RDS AND UPSWING IN PRECIP
AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO OHIO WITH BAND OF SHOWERS WORKING NW SOMEWHAT.
LAST HALF HOUR OR SO OF RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE UNDERWAY.
KEEPING FORECAST SIMPLE HAVE ONLY WENT WITH CHC SHOWER WORDING IN
ALL AREAS EXCEPT EAST QUARTER OR SO WHERE PRECIP LIKELY TO AFFECT
FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS PRETTY STEADY THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLE EVEN FALLING SOME AS
COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND WINDS INCREASE AS A RESULT OF
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
SPOKE OF ENERGY AND NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. BACKED OFF HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY
NORTH WITH LITTLE OVERALL DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED.
OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR LINGERING SPRINKLES...DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY. PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND TRACK ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FEATURE WILL BE MSTR STARVED BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SPARK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES OR MORE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS SAT NGT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...
HIGH LAT BLOCK OVR THE NORTH ATL SPURNING STG NEG NAO WHICH WILL
CONT TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS PD RESULTING IN ANOMALOUS NRLY FLW ACRS
MUCH OF THE ERN US AND WHICH WILL PUSH ACTIVE POLAR JET SOUTH ACRS
THE GULF COAST. THUS XPC DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WX TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PD. OP GFS SOLUTION CONTS TO LOOK LIKE AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION SUN NIGHT/MON W/CONV FEEDBACK NOTED ALOFT. ALL OTHER MED
RANGE SOLUTIONS AT THAT RANGE ARE DRY YET AM FORCED TO HOLD ONTO 20S
FOR COLLABORATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECTING A SLOW DECREASE IN RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WINS OUT OVER INCREASING
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL STILL IMPACT KSBN NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH A LULL IN PRECIP AT KFWA. UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGESTS
VARIABLE CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT RANGING FROM AS LOW AS 700 FT TO
AT TIMES APPROACHING VFR. MODELS STILL SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO KFWA TOWARDS 12Z. HOWEVER...LESS THAN
OPTIMISTIC SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON VSBY AND WENT TO SHOWER MENTION
VS RAIN.
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT TIME AND WILL INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AS SFC
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES INTO
BOTH SITES...WITH KFWA THE FIRST AS LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
WILL SEE SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.
MI...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1218 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL IN AND AROUND THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND MID-LEVEL LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO SATURDAY.
KED
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LIFT/MOISTENING WITHIN NW-SE ORIENTED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS EASTERN KS THIS
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY APPEAR QUITE MARGINAL AND WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO BE VFR. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST.
SYNOPSIS:
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CONUS IS MOVING EAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING LEAVING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. RIPPLES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW HAVE HELPED TO
DEVELOP SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER TODAY. DESPITE THESE
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN KANSAS...EASTERN KANSAS IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
40S ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY - SUNDAY:
A RIPPLE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE NAM/GFS/HRRR ALL
CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF CURRENT
TRENDS...AND THAT GIVES CONFIDENCE TO ITS SOLUTION...DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
THE OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND
HAVE DECREASED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS A DISTURBANCE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND APPROACHES THE
STATE. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY AND KNOCKED
MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.
MONDAY - THURSDAY:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN JUNE. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...BUT THEY ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING SMALL DISTURBANCES
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THESE DISTURBANCES CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE IS LOW.
HAVE MAINTAINED MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP DOES LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS THE FORECAST
EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 67 54 83 65 / 70 20 10 20
HUTCHINSON 67 53 83 64 / 70 10 10 20
NEWTON 65 52 82 64 / 70 10 10 20
ELDORADO 65 52 81 63 / 70 20 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 68 55 82 65 / 70 30 10 30
RUSSELL 69 53 83 64 / 70 10 10 20
GREAT BEND 70 53 84 63 / 60 10 10 20
SALINA 66 51 83 63 / 70 10 0 20
MCPHERSON 66 52 83 64 / 70 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 69 53 81 63 / 40 20 10 20
CHANUTE 67 52 81 62 / 30 10 10 10
IOLA 67 51 81 62 / 30 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 68 52 81 63 / 40 20 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
606 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LIFT/MOISTENING WITHIN NW-SE ORIENTED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS EASTERN KS THIS
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY APPEAR QUITE MARGINAL AND WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO BE VFR. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST.
SYNOPSIS:
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CONUS IS MOVING EAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING LEAVING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. RIPPLES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW HAVE HELPED TO
DEVELOP SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER TODAY. DESPITE THESE
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN KANSAS...EASTERN KANSAS IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
40S ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY - SUNDAY:
A RIPPLE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE NAM/GFS/HRRR ALL
CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF CURRENT
TRENDS...AND THAT GIVES CONFIDENCE TO ITS SOLUTION...DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
THE OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND
HAVE DECREASED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS A DISTURBANCE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND APPROACHES THE
STATE. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY AND KNOCKED
MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.
MONDAY - THURSDAY:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN JUNE. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...BUT THEY ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING SMALL DISTURBANCES
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THESE DISTURBANCES CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE IS LOW.
HAVE MAINTAINED MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP DOES LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS THE FORECAST
EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 67 54 83 65 / 40 20 10 20
HUTCHINSON 67 53 83 64 / 40 10 10 20
NEWTON 65 52 82 64 / 40 10 10 20
ELDORADO 65 52 81 63 / 40 20 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 68 55 82 65 / 40 30 10 30
RUSSELL 69 53 83 64 / 40 10 10 20
GREAT BEND 70 53 84 63 / 40 10 10 20
SALINA 66 51 83 63 / 40 10 0 20
MCPHERSON 66 52 83 64 / 40 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 69 53 81 63 / 30 20 10 20
CHANUTE 67 52 81 62 / 30 10 10 10
IOLA 67 51 81 62 / 20 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 68 52 81 63 / 30 20 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
326 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST.
SYNOPSIS:
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CONUS IS MOVING EAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING LEAVING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. RIPPLES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW HAVE HELPED TO
DEVELOP SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER TODAY. DESPITE THESE
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN KANSAS...EASTERN KANSAS IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
40S ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY - SUNDAY:
A RIPPLE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE NAM/GFS/HRRR ALL
CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF CURRENT
TRENDS...AND THAT GIVES CONFIDENCE TO ITS SOLUTION...DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
THE OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND
HAVE DECREASED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS A DISTURBANCE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND APPROACHES THE
STATE. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY AND KNOCKED
MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.
MONDAY - THURSDAY:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN JUNE. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...BUT THEY ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING SMALL DISTURBANCES
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THESE DISTURBANCES CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE IS LOW.
HAVE MAINTAINED MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP DOES LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS THE FORECAST
EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
BILLINGS
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC AROUND 700MB LATER
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRI. SHOULD SEE ALTOCUMULUS DECK
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS ALL SITES STARTING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AT
KRSL AND REACHING KCNU BY MIDDAY FRI. GIVEN FORECAST LIFT...SHOULD
SEE SOME HIGH BASED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WOULD ONLY JUSTIFY VCSH.
CLEARING ANTICIPATED AROUND SUNSET WITH BOTH LOSS OF HEATING AND
EXIT OF SHORTWAVE. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 67 54 83 65 / 40 20 10 20
HUTCHINSON 67 53 83 64 / 40 10 10 20
NEWTON 65 52 82 64 / 40 10 10 20
ELDORADO 65 52 81 63 / 40 20 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 68 55 82 65 / 40 30 10 30
RUSSELL 69 53 83 64 / 40 10 10 20
GREAT BEND 70 53 84 63 / 40 10 10 20
SALINA 66 51 83 63 / 40 10 0 20
MCPHERSON 66 52 83 64 / 40 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 69 53 81 63 / 30 20 10 20
CHANUTE 67 52 81 62 / 30 10 10 10
IOLA 67 51 81 62 / 20 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 68 52 81 63 / 30 20 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1251 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1015 PM EDT Thur May 31 2012
The storms this evening have weakened significantly over the last
couple of hours. We have therefore allowed the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch to expire. A few strong thunderstorms remain in south central
Kentucky this evening. Gusty winds and small hail may be seen with
these storms over the next few hours. For the rest of the night, a
second area of showers and thunderstorms has developed back to the
west. The RAP shows at least scattered precip continuing through the
night as the surface low continues to move northeast across the
forecast area. Soundings show instability diminishing overnight as
well. Will therefore hold on to only scattered to isolated thunder
after 06Z. Updates are already out.
.Short Term (Tonight through Friday night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu May 31 2012
A 500mb trough now over the Upper Midwest will amplify rapidly by
Friday morning as jet stream energy digs south along its back side.
Weak low pressure currently (@ 2pm EDT) over southern Illinois will
slowly move east across southern Indiana and is expected to begin to
deepen pretty rapidly just as it passes north of Louisville late
this evening. An unusually chilly early June airmass will then
arrive early Friday, keeping afternoon highs in the lower to mid
60s, which is not too far from the all time record low high for June
1st (62 at Standiford).
This evening`s precipitation will mostly likely begin as a north
south orientated line of convection that is already beginning to
develop across southern Illinois. Moisture return up to this point
has not been robust as southeast winds have kept dewpoints in the
mid 50s. Winds will eventually veer to the south or southwest by
late afternoon as the aforementioned surface low moves closer to
Louisville.
Despite only weak to moderate instability and moisture return,
strong upper air dynamics coupled with wide surface T/Td depressions
may lead to the formation of one or more bowing segments with a
threat of damaging winds. With backed surface winds, an isolated
tornado east of the developing surface low is possible. However, the
large T/Td depression and relative high Lifted Condensation Level
(LCL) would argue against tornado formation.
Best guess on the timing for this line would have it arriving over
our western counties by late afternoon, crossing Interstate 65 by
early to mid evening, and exiting our Bluegrass Counties around
midnight. With the arrival of this strengthening upper trough,
expect that occasional showers may continue through the early
morning hours.
Even with showers ending during the morning hours, expect somewhat
of a dingy day Friday with persistent low clouds and somewhat brisk
west winds around 10 to 15 mph continue through the afternoon. Skies
will tend to slowly clear beginning from our southwest counties by
late afternoon, with partly cloudy skies arriving over our entire
CWA after midnight. Temperatures will cool well into the 50 to 55
degree range.
.Long Term (Saturday through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu May 31 2012
Saturday through Sunday night...
The exiting low pressure system to the north and east will place the
forecast area under northwest flow, leaving temperatures cooler than
normal for this time of year. Additionally, this type of flow is
notorious for placing central Kentucky and southern Indiana under
persistent cloud cover and occasional showers. Therefore, have
mentionable PoPs on Saturday afternoon and despite instability
looking weak, given the time of year, included isolated t-storms due
to daytime heating possibly kicking things up a notch. Shower
chances may spread further south Saturday night but looks to clear
out until early next week.
As previously alluded to, temperatures will be below average on
Saturday and Saturday night, with highs in the mid 70s and lows in
the mid 50s. Sunday will see some warm up closer to normal with
highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s.
Monday through Wednesday night...
This time frame is proving to be a little on the tricky side for the
beginning of the week as the GFS has a surface low pressure system
crossing through the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon into the overnight
period, bringing decent precip chances to the forecast area.
However, the ECMWF is keeping the area dry through the end of the
forecast period. What they do agree on is the stout ridge that
builds over the Plains, leaving the Ohio Valley on the periphery.
Given the uncertainty, have left some PoPs in for Monday afternoon
but will certainly need to be monitored for model changes over the
next day or two. Any precipitation that does fire up will be in the
form of thunderstorms. It should be dry otherwise through Wednesday.
Temperatures look to linger near normal, reaching the mid 80s during
the days and the low 60s overnight.
&&
.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 1250 AM EDT Fri Jun 1 2012
Low pressure is centered over southeast Indiana at this time, with
an attendant cold front still west of the TAF sites, but not for
long. In the near term, still have some storms over LEX, but the
instability for thunder will leave soon, and should just have to
deal with some light to moderate rains as well as lower cigs. Obs on
the west side of the surface low indicate IFR or worse cigs. Have
gone more pessimistic with updates early this morning, showing poor
flying conditions overnight. It will take some time for these low
clouds to get scoured out. Have IFR conditions till mid morning when
bases should lift to MVFR levels. Expect MVFR clouds to remain
through the day as models are not showing us getting rid of these
clouds till late in this TAF period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........EER
Short Term.......JSD
Long Term........LG
Aviation.........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1148 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE EVENING GRIDDED FORECAST UPDATES WAS TO
FIRST HANDLE THE TIMING ON THE EXIT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
SECONDLY TO DEAL WITH LOW CLOUDS...WINDS/WIND
GUSTS...TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CHANGES AND ANY WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION.
THE 12KM NAM/13KM RUC/3KM HRRR APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND FIELDS AND
WERE RELIED UPON TO HANDLE THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST PERIOD
/REST OF TONIGHT/. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE A LITTLE MORE
DIFFICULT...BUT UTILIZED THE SREF GUIDANCE TO DEPICT THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TRACE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...BEFORE DIMINISHING BEFORE DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING THIS MID AFTERNOON...
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
GROWN VERY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. IN
ADDITION...A PRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SAME REGION...AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE RUNNING UP AROUND
40 KTS. THE SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH SFC
BASED LI VALUES RUNNING IN THE -4 TO -8 RANGE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS
BAND OF STORMS. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MIGRATE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.
BY AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR...SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AND THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR JUST SHOWERS...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT...WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS IN SRN
IL/SWRN IND. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE
EAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY STEADY OUT OF THE NW DURING THE
DAY FRI AS CLOUDINESS DIMINISHES. MEASURABLE PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA ON SAT THE SAT NIGHT.
ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...FRI/FRI NIGHT WILL
SEEM MIGHTY COOL...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL REBOUND FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROF WORKING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD GENERATE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES OVER OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL MIGRATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO CONTINUES. THROUGH THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP
FREE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE
GREATEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING TSTM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING...AFFECTING
TERMINALS MAINLY IN WRN KY AND MOST OF SWRN IND. BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 20 KTS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN STORMS...
THROUGH MID EVENING. NWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DOMINATE MORE AND
MORE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT IN THE WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION...LINGERING INTO MID
MORNING ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE REGION.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...GM/DB
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...DB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
626 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION BY LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN STALL THIS WEEKEND NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH WILL
KEEP COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
MODIFIED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE AND BLENDED
IN LAMP TEMPS FOR 6-12 HOUR TREND. NEWEST HRRR FINALLY GETTING HANDLE
ON CONVECTIVE LINE BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN WRF-NAM AND HIGH RES
MODEL WITH DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN PA ALREADY BY 17-18Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPDATE USING BLEND OF RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE DATA COUPLED WITH
WRF-NMM AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT, HAVE MADE MAINLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO TIMING OF SHOWER BANDS. THE INITIAL PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS WEST OF THE
I-79 CORRIDOR.
THE NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MORE RECENT MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY
LATER PASSAGE TIME, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE INSTABILITY THAN
EARLIER ASSESSED AND HENCE MORE SEVERE POTENTIAL, AS SREF MODEL
PROFILES SHOW SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HENCE HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CONCURS WITH SPC OUTLOOK OF A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS FAR WEST AS THE I-77
CORRIDOR IN EASTERN OHIO. LIKEWISE CONCUR WITH SPC THAT THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL BE WIND RATHER THAN HAIL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL BASED ON RECENT GFS LAMP AND MOS OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSENSUS OF SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER STALLING OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE SATURDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY EXITING EAST THROUGH NEW YORK STATE LATE SUNDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL CAUSE COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
ACCORDINGLY, TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN CAN BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS INDICATED BY BLEND OF GFS AND
NAM MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE EXITING NORTHEASTERN CONUS TROF ARE FORECAST
ABOUT 5 DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES USING A ECMWF AND GFS
GUIDANCE BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE TODAY AS STRONG
JET WRAPS UNDERNEATH UPPER AIR LOW VICINITY SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SYSTEM GOES NEGATIVE AND SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND PUSHES FROM KY
INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIFT WARM FRONT NORTHWARD
FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA.
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
HAVE TIMED THEM INTO CWA 08-10Z. NEW HIGH-RES MODEL BRINGS
CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH JUST A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HAVE TIMED CONVECTIVE LINE WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z TO
00Z WITH BEST TIME 19-23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS TERMINALS.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE 8-11 KTS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 12-14G24KT THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT BEHIND FRONT...WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-12KTS WITH CONTINUED
OVERCAST 020 NORTH TO 030 SOUTH AND POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED -SHRA.
.OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 07Z...WARM FRONT WAS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA BACK
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE APPROX. 1003MB
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED.
TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DC-BALTIMORE
CORRIDOR THROUGH DAYBREAK.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
NORTHERN PROGRESSION MAY BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AND THE BOUNDARY MAY NOT MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE UNTIL
CLOSER TO 18Z. CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM SECTORED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AOA 80F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.
WARM FRONT ITSELF MAY SERVE AS A CONTINUING FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...AND EVENTUAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THERE
COULD BE A RELATIVE LATE MORNING LULL IN PRECIP /AS INDICATED BY THE
HRRR/...BUT LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SERVE AS STRONG LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR
FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. COMBINATION
OF THESE BOUNDARIES MAY LEAD TO SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY
MULTICELL/SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS INITIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
LINEAR STORMS AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INSTABILITY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAKE A
CONTRIBUTION...AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL INCREASE CAPE TO AT LEAST 1K TO 1.5K J/KG
AND PERHAPS HIGHER IN SPOTS THAT ACHIEVE MORE BREAKS. WIND FIELDS
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...INCREASING BULK SHEAR IN
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN CAPE/SHEAR FORECAST AND STRONG FORCING FROM
AFOREMENTIONED LIFTING MECHANISMS...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. WITH INCREASED SHEAR PROMOTING
HIGHER HELICITY VALUES /ESPECIALLY THOSE DEPICTED BY THE NAM/...THIS
SUGGESTS THAT A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
IN ADDITION...AN AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E/HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR IS
FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1.5IN TO 1.8IN. THIS MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF MULTIPLE WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR.
GRIDS INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH HWO ALSO HIGHLIGHTING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE TROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARLY PARALLELING THE UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF FROPA/PRECIP A LITTLE. MODIFIED POPS/WX/QPF TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE BAY
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEHIND
THIS FOR A FEW HOURS. BUT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO PUSH THE MOISTURE EAST WHERE THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY BY
DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS/COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. MORNING MAY BEGIN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...BUT
DESPITE DOWNSLOPING FLOW THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MAY PROMOTE
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO WASH OUT MEMORIES OF
THE FEW DAYS OF HEAT...CENTERED AROUND THIS PAST WEEKEND. THE COMING
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE ACTIVE THAN DURING THE HOT-STRETCH.
AFTER DEPICTING A GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MED
AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TAKE DIFFERING SIDES ON WHAT TO DO W/ THE
NEXT SYSTEM. FIRST...THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED W/ THE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE AREA WILL PIVOT TO OUR NORTH AND
SWING BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
OCCLUDING UPPER LOW THAT GETS STUCK OVER ONTARIO WILL TRANSFER THE
REST OF ITS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF CAPE COD. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW SOME BATCHES OF RAIN TO SWING BACK DOWN ACROSS
THE MID ATLC SUN AND MON IN BRIEF SCATTERED POCKETS. THE NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE W/ THIS SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS TENDS TO PULL THE
FEATURE OFF THE COAST...PULLING UP JUST TO OUR NE INSTEAD OF PASSING
OVER THE AREA.
AN INTERESTING SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN LATEST RUN
OF THE GFS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES
COMING DOWN FROM THE NRN PLAINS THAT COMBINE AND STRENGTH AS THEY
MOVE SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY THE TIME THIS NEW FEATURE
APPROACHES THE MID ATLC COAST...A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TAKES PLACE
OVER-TOP OUR AREA FROM TUE INTO WED. THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION CREATES
AN POTENT SYSTEM W/ DYNAMIC FORCING BUT ALSO ONE THAT COULD CHANGE
DRAMATICALLY FROM RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
ECMWF...WHICH IS MORE IN-STEP W/ THE NAM TOWARD THE END OF ITS
CYCLE...BASICALLY KEEPS OUR CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND ROTATING IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE WORK
WEEK.
WITH EITHER SOLUTION FOR OUR LONG RANGE FORECAST...THERE WILL BE A
DISTINCT LACK OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND THEREFORE NO RETURNING OF THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY - THRU THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO. THEN PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PERHAPS AS MULTICELLS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING. GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE...HAVE MODIFIED VCTS/CB TO PREVAILING TSRA DURING
THE TIME OF THE GREAT PROBABILITY FOR IMPACT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
TSRA MAY NOT EXTEND FAR ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING AND WOULD NEED
ADJUSTMENT. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE HUBS 05Z-07Z WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
SATURDAY.
AFTER MOVING OFF FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT INTO SUN...THE MAIN
UPPER LOW WILL SWING DOWN SOME SHOWERS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BACK
ACROSS THE MID ATLC FROM SRN CANADA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND
INTERMITTENT AT BEST...W/ SOME BREEZY NWLY WINDS AT THE SFC INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEPICTION OF A SUBSEQUENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS REQUIRING SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA AS WELL...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST THRU MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...W/
PERIODIC SCA CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT. WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING...EXPECT ANOMALIES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON IS THE LOWER ONE...AND EVEN
A 1 FT ANOMALY WOULD NOT PRODUCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS.
HOWEVER...AN ANOMALY OF JUST 3/4 FT WOULD DURING THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH
TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT. BY THAT TIME...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HAVE
TURNED WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BUT AM UNCERTAIN IF WATER WILL BE ABLE
TO BE PUSHED OUT BY THAT TIME. THEREFORE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS ANNAPOLIS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BPP/GMS
MARINE...BPP/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
932 AM MDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE OCCURRED THIS MORNING FROM AROUND LIVINGSTON
TO SHERIDAN APPEAR TIED TO SOME WEAK 700-HPA FRONTOGENESIS IN WHAT
IS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
0.80 INCHES. THE 12 UTC NAM AND 06 UTC GFS BOTH CALL FOR THAT 700-
HPA THERMAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT. HOWEVER...THE MODEL
SIMULATIONS ALSO WEAKEN WHAT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DOES EXIST AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST...WHICH MAY ADMITTEDLY NOT BE A BAD NOTION WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING SINCE ABOUT 14 UTC. FOR THAT REASON...WE CHOSE
TO LEAVE A DRY FORECAST IN TACT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS AFTERNOON
EVEN AS THE 700-HPA FRONT MOVES INTO THAT AREA. THE 12 UTC HRRR IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO GENERATE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA IN
THE 18 TO 00 UTC TIME FRAME...WHICH WAS NOT ENOUGH FOR US TO ALTER
THE POP FORECAST AT THIS TIME...EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BEAR WATCHING.
SOME POPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
NEARBY FOOTHILLS IN RESPECT TO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A BIT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE RISING...THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
JET ENERGY WILL PULL THE GULF OF AK UPPER LOW...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING...INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THERE WAS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON SUN WILL AMPLIFY SUN NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA FROM AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN...BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FROM KBIL TO KSHR W. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND A
PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON MON AS
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. MID LEVEL WARMING WILL
CREATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE AFTERNOON OVER AREAS E AND S OF
KBIL. HOWEVER...THIS INHIBITION WILL BE LESS OVER FAR SE MT WHERE
THE GFS HAD 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. CONFINED MORNING POPS TO W
AND N OF KBIL THEN LOWERED AFTERNOON POPS JUST SLIGHTLY. DUE TO THE
LARGE CAPES AND SOME SHEAR...ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. S FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E INTO
THE AREA MON NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT MODELS ALL AGREED ON A WELL-PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
PUSHING N THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER THE
AREA...CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION AND THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS LOOKED REASONABLE.
WILL HAVE JET DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET IN
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LOW
WILL PUSH E TOWARD THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THE GFS WAS FURTHER N
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM...AND THERE WAS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE LOW ON WED. THE DRY SLOT WILL PUSH
E WITH TIME THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LOWERED POPS ON TUE DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR AND WENT WITH CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA. AGAIN CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE IN ANY CONVECTION. BLENDED WED POPS WITH THE
CONSALL DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN SYSTEM PATH. WENT WITH BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS ANY SYSTEMS
APPEARED TO BE WEAK.
DID RAISE TEMPERATURES DURING THE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT NEXT WEEK. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KLVM
TO KSHR THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF A
KBIL TO KSHR LINE. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING LATE THIS EVENING AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 055/086 054/080 057/089 058/086 048/070 049/070
2/W 13/T 42/T 23/T 32/T 32/T 22/T
LVM 075 049/082 047/080 049/084 048/082 041/066 039/067
2/T 25/T 43/T 33/T 32/T 43/T 22/T
HDN 078 051/089 052/081 055/092 056/088 049/073 049/072
2/W 12/T 41/B 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 078 054/088 056/080 059/093 061/089 053/075 053/073
1/B 12/T 51/B 22/T 32/T 33/T 22/T
4BQ 076 051/088 054/079 056/092 060/088 052/075 050/072
1/B 02/T 21/B 22/T 22/T 22/T 32/T
BHK 075 052/085 056/077 057/088 060/084 054/075 051/073
1/B 12/T 41/B 22/T 32/T 33/T 32/T
SHR 073 048/085 050/081 054/088 058/086 046/073 046/069
3/W 12/T 32/T 22/T 21/B 22/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEE HOURS
OF THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATER TODAY...THEN
WILL SWING A STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS WILL SEND TWO AREAS OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD TOTAL WELL OVER AN
INCH IN SOME AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
CULPRIT WILL BE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW WILL BE
DRIVEN BY ENERGY ALOFT...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE MIDWEST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (4 STD) SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE RAIN TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. 18Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS AND THE SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE TRENDED A TAD SLOWER
WITH THIS...WITH RAIN LIKELY TO REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND
DAYBREAK. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WEAKER TO THE EAST...SINCE IT
IS FURTHER FROM THE UPPER LOW.
THE POTENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT RAIN SHOULD RETURN LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. IT IS THIS FEATURE WHICH IS
LIKELY TO BRING THE HEAVIEST RAIN. IN ADDITION TO THE STEADY
RAIN...THE LATEST STABILITY INDICES SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
HPC`S LATEST QPF GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE GENESEE
VALLEY...WITH ABOUT ONE THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FARTHER
TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE RECENT DRY TREND...THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT STILL SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
ALLOWING FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO BECOME FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES FRIDAY EVENING...THEN INTO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. DRY SLOT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN OVERALL PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...WITH ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST WITHIN THIS AREA.
DRYING MAY EVEN BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO BRING A BRIEF BIT OF
CLEARING.
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRY
SLOT SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FOR THE MOST PART...SATURDAY MAY
WIND UP PRECIPITATION FREE FOR MANY AREAS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS THE FAR WEST...BUT PROBABLY NOT LOOKING AT A WASH OUT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A COOL DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE MID
60S.
MID LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED CIRCULATION DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...ALTHOUGH COULD BE COOLER IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS EARLY
ENOUGH IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUING TO SUGGEST
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF. THE LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS CONTINUING TO SIGNAL THE NAO BECOMING HIGHLY
NEGATIVE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE FORMATION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPERIENCED TODAY AND TONIGHT (FRI
NIGHT) AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH AND
SPREAD RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE DETAILS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING AS MAINLY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT
CIGS AND VSBYS AT KBUF/KIAG AND KJHW WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. THE
SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 15Z FOR KROC AND 18Z FOR KART.
THE CONCERN THROUGH DAYBREAK THOUGH WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR... WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC BEING OVER
RUN BY 30-35KT SOUTHEST WINDS AT 1500 FT. AFTER DAYBREAK...DIURNAL
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERCENTAGE OF THESE WINDS TO MIX TO THE SFC.
A 3-6 HOUR BREAK IN THE FIRST ROUND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL WORK FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. CIGS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT THIS TIME WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS IN
PLACE.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK ACROSS ITS WAY TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT (FRI NT). A
3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS LOWERING TO IFR
LEVELS. THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS THIS EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT (FRI N)...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
LIFT JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE EASTERLY WINDS TO PICK UP ON
LAKE ERIE AND THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. WHILE
THE HIGHEST WAVES ON LAKE ERIE WILL BE OVER THE CANADIAN
WATERS...THE WINDS WILL SATISFY THE CRITERIA NEEDED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.
AS THE LOW LIFTS WEST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS
AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE A BIT ON LAKE ERIE...BUT MODEST EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE
THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ON
LAKE ERIE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST OF
THE LAKE WHICH PUSHES AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. A FEW
HOURS OF 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WELL.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT BOTH LAKES ON SATURDAY AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM
EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TJP
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
700 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS CONVECTION WILL
BE MOVING INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE-BASED
CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND WILL BE ENHANCED BY SYNOPTIC ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES. A SECOND LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
AND EXPECT IT TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. A LESS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS SECONDARY LINE OF
STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TREMENDOUSLY DIFFERENT FEEL TO THE WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND AS AN UNSEASONABLY ROBUST COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE
FOLLOWED BY COOL AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PCPN-FREE WEEKEND AND AN ALMOST "CRISP" FEEL
TO THE AIR SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AND
AROUND 60 AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS TO RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH SUNDAY
MILDEST.
TIDAL CALCULATIONS INDICATE WE MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
MAINLY FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALLOW PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH AT JUST ABOUT
ANY TIME BUT THESE FEATURES WILL BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO YIELD
ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP CHANCES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE UPPER WAVES
MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT (OR MONDAY NIGHT
ACCORDING TO ECMWF) AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE A SURFACE
REFLECTION ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT DRIVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. THIS EVENT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE
LONG TERM BUT CHANCES WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AND THE CONTINUED
RELATIVE DRYNESS WILL MINIMIZE QPF WHERE PRECIP DOES MANAGE TO
OCCUR. TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO WILL TEND TO BE SMALL...A
FEW DEGREES SHY BY DAY FROM WEAK CAA AND LOW HEIGHTS...A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION IS NOW EAST OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS...AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.
BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TERMINALS FROM 00-03Z. THIS CONVECTION HAS
SOME DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT IT...BUT THE LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION
SHOULD KEEP THE INTENSITY DOWN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WORST
CASE. OVERNIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE CESSATION OF ANY
PRECIP. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT TO THE COAST...BUT WENT
WITH VCSH. SATURDAY...A NICE AVIATION DAY IN STORE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE AT THIS
HOUR. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS LATER
WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS BETWEEN 0300 AND 0600 UTC. WILL MAINTAIN THE SHORT DURATION
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING AND SCEC HEADLINE. BY MORNING
EXPECT A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE JUST STARTING TO
IMPROVE DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT STILL ROUGH...WITH LEFT OVER
SOUTHERLY SWELL ENERGY. THUS AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED EARLY. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED. NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL BACK TO W-WSW BY SUNDAY...SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING TIMING OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY COME AS SOON AS MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY BRING A SMALL
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WITH ITS PASSAGE. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH
SLOWER...AS LATE AS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION HAS
A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY INTRODUCE A PRECEDENT
SOUTHERLY WIND AND A STRONGER NW WIND IN ITS WAKE. THE PERSISTENCE
OF THE GFS MODEL SHOWING THIS SOLUTION MAKES IT FAIRLY APPEALING
AND THE FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED TOWARDS IT WITHOUT EMBRACING FULLY
IN CASE THE FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION PANS OUT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SHK/CRM
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
350 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM FRIDAY...
...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR 5
COUNTIES NEIGHBORING THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE IN THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/COASTAL COUNTIES...
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...
CURRENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL INTERACT
WITH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR NEAR TERM UPDATES WILL BE
FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE TO 850MB WARM FRONT
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH A PERIOD
LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRATUS IS
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL NC...AND SKIES ARE NEARLY
CLEAR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC. 12Z RAOBS AT KGSO AND KMHX SHOW
A STRONG BUT EASILY BREAKABLE CAP ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SO RAP FORECASTS OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE SEEM
ATTAINABLE. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP GIVE 1000-1500
J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER EASTERN NC. THE HRRR AND CAMS HAVE PERFORMED
POORLY WITH THE PRECIP THIS MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEPICTION OF CONVECTIVE IGNITION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS LOW.
HOWEVER...THE CAP SHOULD BREAK BY NOON AND CLOUD STREETS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER THE SANDHILLS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO POP UP BY 18Z. ONE LAST
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF VA...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THE HIGHER 80-90 POPS FROM EAST TO WEST
THIS EVENING.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILLED AND LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECASTS SHOW 35-40KT
BETWEEN THE POLAR JET TO THE NORTH AND A WEAKER COMPONENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER SOUTHEAST GA/SC THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN BACKED TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT ALL MODELS
INDICATED WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY AS MIXING INCREASES THIS
MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINEAR FORCING AND EXPECTED QLCS THIS
EVENING. AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE THIS
EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET IF FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
35-40KT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE
CURRENT SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A 10 PERCENT TORNADO
RISK NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE AND ROCKY MOUNT.
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL QLCS THIS EVENING...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
MOST OF THE CAMS SUGGEST THE COLD POOL WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SURGING ACROSS THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AREA AFTER 21Z. LARGE SCALE SHEAR PARAMETERS AND SIMULATED
UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES SUGGEST EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE.
WE WILL LEAVE FORECAST HIGHS AS THEY ARE SINCE THEY ARE ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AN
ISSUE.
TONIGHT...BAND OF CONVECTION CROSSES THEN PIEDMONT DURING THE
EVENING...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT. FAVOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM-WRF MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE COOLER GFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM FRIDAY...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY. BY DAYBREAK...THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE LONG EXITED THE AREA...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRIER
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER WEST TO EAST INTO CENTRAL
NC...WITH ANY LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORNING THICKNESSES
START OUT 30 METERS BELOW NORMAL...AND REBOUND TO 20 METERS SHY OF
TODAYS AFTERNOON THICKNESSES...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80.
WILL LIKELY SEE A RESURGENCE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A RESURGENCE OF 30-40 METER H5
HEIGHT FALLS AND DCVA AS ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. A 15 METER
THICKNESS INCREASE WILL SUPPORT A RETURN OF DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH A SLOWER RETURN OF HUMIDITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM FRIDAY...
THE ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO WILL RESULT IN
A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN...WITH THE EASTERN
US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING A PROMINENT MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN THE LATE MONDAY-LATE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE/LOW ACCOMPANYING
THE UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR CENTRAL
NC...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WILL BE MARRED
BY NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURANCES SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH THAT ARE UNRESOLVABLE WITH ANY RELIABILITY THIS FAR OUT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN DRY AFTERWARD.
EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN US TROUGH WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 79 TO 84. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM FRIDAY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING TO THE 2500-3500FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CLOUD COVER IS VARIABLE...SO PERIODS OF HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. A STRONG STORMS SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE
REGION TODAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE POPPED UP
SINCE 16Z NORTHEAST OF KRDU....AND WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 19-21Z. WE EXPECT STORMS MOVING INTO THE
KCLT AREA AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL MERGE INTO A LINE OF STORMS AND
CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 19-02Z. STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50-60MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST PARTS OF THE LINE...WITH IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME THE MOST PROBABLY TIME
PERIOD OF STORMS WITH VCTS...WITH THE MOST ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AN HOUR OR LESS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE
LIMITED IF THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS WIDESPREAD.
NONETHELESS...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY CAUSE VFR CEILINGS MONDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...WSS/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
226 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 226 PM FRIDAY...
...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR 5
COUNTIES NEIGHBORING THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE IN THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/COASTAL COUNTIES...
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...
CURRENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL INTERACT
WITH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR NEAR TERM UPDATES WILL BE
FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE TO 850MB WARM FRONT
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH A PERIOD
LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRATUS IS
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL NC...AND SKIES ARE NEARLY
CLEAR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC. 12Z RAOBS AT KGSO AND KMHX SHOW
A STRONG BUT EASILY BREAKABLE CAP ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SO RAP FORECASTS OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE SEEM
ATTAINABLE. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP GIVE 1000-1500
J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER EASTERN NC. THE HRRR AND CAMS HAVE PERFORMED
POORLY WITH THE PRECIP THIS MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEPICTION OF CONVECTIVE IGNITION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS LOW.
HOWEVER...THE CAP SHOULD BREAK BY NOON AND CLOUD STREETS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER THE SANDHILLS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO POP UP BY 18Z. ONE LAST
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF VA...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THE HIGHER 80-90 POPS FROM EAST TO WEST
THIS EVENING.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILLED AND LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECASTS SHOW 35-40KT
BETWEEN THE POLAR JET TO THE NORTH AND A WEAKER COMPONENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER SOUTHEAST GA/SC THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN BACKED TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT ALL MODELS
INDICATED WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY AS MIXING INCREASES THIS
MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINEAR FORCING AND EXPECTED QLCS THIS
EVENING. AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE THIS
EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET IF FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
35-40KT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE
CURRENT SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A 10 PERCENT TORNADO
RISK NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE AND ROCKY MOUNT.
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL QLCS THIS EVENING...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
MOST OF THE CAMS SUGGEST THE COLD POOL WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SURGING ACROSS THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AREA AFTER 21Z. LARGE SCALE SHEAR PARAMETERS AND SIMULATED
UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES SUGGEST EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE.
WE WILL LEAVE FORECAST HIGHS AS THEY ARE SINCE THEY ARE ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AN
ISSUE.
TONIGHT...BAND OF CONVECTION CROSSES THEN PIEDMONT DURING THE
EVENING...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT. FAVOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM-WRF MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE COOLER GFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT....TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME ENSUES BEHIND
EXITING FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW.
RESULTANT W-NW FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER MORE STABLE AIR INTO CENTRAL
NC. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW PASSING CLOUDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
THOUGH BULK OF COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP GENERATION. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. MAX TEMPS 75-80. MIN TEMPS
MID-UPPER 50S WITH A LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SHOWING A
RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK... WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST AND EAST
COAST... WITH A CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. WITH THE EAST COAST MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED INVOF NEW ENGLAND/OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST... CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT... AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO DISTURANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME... WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. HOWEVER... THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THUS... WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THEN. GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GO WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL... WITH EVEN SOME PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/STORMS/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM FRIDAY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING TO THE 2500-3500FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CLOUD COVER IS VARIABLE...SO PERIODS OF HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. A STRONG STORMS SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE
REGION TODAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE POPPED UP
SINCE 16Z NORTHEAST OF KRDU....AND WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 19-21Z. WE EXPECT STORMS MOVING INTO THE
KCLT AREA AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL MERGE INTO A LINE OF STORMS AND
CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 19-02Z. STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50-60MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST PARTS OF THE LINE...WITH IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME THE MOST PROBABLY TIME
PERIOD OF STORMS WITH VCTS...WITH THE MOST ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AN HOUR OR LESS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE
LIMITED IF THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS WIDESPREAD.
NONETHELESS...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY CAUSE VFR CEILINGS MONDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL INTERACT
WITH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR NEAR TERM UPDATES WILL BE
FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE TO 850MB WARM FRONT
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH A PERIOD
LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRATUS IS
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL NC...AND SKIES ARE NEARLY
CLEAR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC. 12Z RAOBS AT KGSO AND KMHX SHOW
A STRONG BUT EASILY BREAKABLE CAP ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SO RAP FORECASTS OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE SEEM
ATTAINABLE. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP GIVE 1000-1500
J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER EASTERN NC. THE HRRR AND CAMS HAVE PERFORMED
POORLY WITH THE PRECIP THIS MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEPICTION OF CONVECTIVE IGNITION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS LOW.
HOWEVER...THE CAP SHOULD BREAK BY NOON AND CLOUD STREETS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER THE SANDHILLS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO POP UP BY 18Z. ONE LAST
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF VA...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THE HIGHER 80-90 POPS FROM EAST TO WEST
THIS EVENING.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILLED AND LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECASTS SHOW 35-40KT
BETWEEN THE POLAR JET TO THE NORTH AND A WEAKER COMPONENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER SOUTHEAST GA/SC THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN BACKED TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT ALL MODELS
INDICATED WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY AS MIXING INCREASES THIS
MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINEAR FORCING AND EXPECTED QLCS THIS
EVENING. AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE THIS
EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET IF FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
35-40KT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE
CURRENT SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A 10 PERCENT TORNADO
RISK NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE AND ROCKY MOUNT.
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL QLCS THIS EVENING...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
MOST OF THE CAMS SUGGEST THE COLD POOL WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SURGING ACROSS THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AREA AFTER 21Z. LARGE SCALE SHEAR PARAMETERS AND SIMULATED
UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES SUGGEST EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE.
WE WILL LEAVE FORECAST HIGHS AS THEY ARE SINCE THEY ARE ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AN
ISSUE.
TONIGHT...BAND OF CONVECTION CROSSES THEN PIEDMONT DURING THE
EVENING...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT. FAVOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM-WRF MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE COOLER GFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT....TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME ENSUES BEHIND
EXITING FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW.
RESULTANT W-NW FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER MORE STABLE AIR INTO CENTRAL
NC. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW PASSING CLOUDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
THOUGH BULK OF COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP GENERATION. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. MAX TEMPS 75-80. MIN TEMPS
MID-UPPER 50S WITH A LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SHOWING A
RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK... WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST AND EAST
COAST... WITH A CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. WITH THE EAST COAST MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED INVOF NEW ENGLAND/OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST... CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT... AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO DISTURANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME... WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. HOWEVER... THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THUS... WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THEN. GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GO WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL... WITH EVEN SOME PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/STORMS/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM FRIDAY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING TO THE 2500-3500FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CLOUD COVER IS VARIABLE...SO PERIODS OF HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. A STRONG STORMS SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE
REGION TODAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE POPPED UP
SINCE 16Z NORTHEAST OF KRDU....AND WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 19-21Z. WE EXPECT STORMS MOVING INTO THE
KCLT AREA AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL MERGE INTO A LINE OF STORMS AND
CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 19-02Z. STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50-60MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST PARTS OF THE LINE...WITH IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME THE MOST PROBABLY TIME
PERIOD OF STORMS WITH VCTS...WITH THE MOST ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AN HOUR OR LESS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE
LIMITED IF THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS WIDESPREAD.
NONETHELESS...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY CAUSE VFR CEILINGS MONDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL INTERACT
WITH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR NEAR TERM UPDATES WILL BE
FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE TO 850MB WARM FRONT
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH A PERIOD
LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRATUS IS
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL NC...AND SKIES ARE NEARLY
CLEAR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC. 12Z RAOBS AT KGSO AND KMHX SHOW
A STRONG BUT EASILY BREAKABLE CAP ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SO RAP FORECASTS OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE SEEM
ATTAINABLE. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP GIVE 1000-1500
J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER EASTERN NC. THE HRRR AND CAMS HAVE PERFORMED
POORLY WITH THE PRECIP THIS MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEPICTION OF CONVECTIVE IGNITION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS LOW.
HOWEVER...THE CAP SHOULD BREAK BY NOON AND CLOUD STREETS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER THE SANDHILLS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO POP UP BY 18Z. ONE LAST
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF VA...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THE HIGHER 80-90 POPS FROM EAST TO WEST
THIS EVENING.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILLED AND LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECASTS SHOW 35-40KT
BETWEEN THE POLAR JET TO THE NORTH AND A WEAKER COMPONENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER SOUTHEAST GA/SC THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN BACKED TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT ALL MODELS
INDICATED WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY AS MIXING INCREASES THIS
MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINEAR FORCING AND EXPECTED QLCS THIS
EVENING. AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE THIS
EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET IF FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
35-40KT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE
CURRENT SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A 10 PERCENT TORNADO
RISK NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE AND ROCKY MOUNT.
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL QLCS THIS EVENING...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
MOST OF THE CAMS SUGGEST THE COLD POOL WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SURGING ACROSS THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AREA AFTER 21Z. LARGE SCALE SHEAR PARAMETERS AND SIMULATED
UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES SUGGEST EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE.
WE WILL LEAVE FORECAST HIGHS AS THEY ARE SINCE THEY ARE ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AN
ISSUE.
TONIGHT...BAND OF CONVECTION CROSSES THEN PIEDMONT DURING THE
EVENING...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT. FAVOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM-WRF MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE COOLER GFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT....TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME ENSUES BEHIND
EXITING FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW.
RESULTANT W-NW FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER MORE STABLE AIR INTO CENTRAL
NC. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW PASSING CLOUDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
THOUGH BULK OF COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP GENERATION. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. MAX TEMPS 75-80. MIN TEMPS
MID-UPPER 50S WITH A LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SHOWING A
RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK... WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST AND EAST
COAST... WITH A CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. WITH THE EAST COAST MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED INVOF NEW ENGLAND/OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST... CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT... AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO DISTURANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME... WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. HOWEVER... THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THUS... WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THEN. GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GO WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL... WITH EVEN SOME PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/STORMS/CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM FRIDAY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES WILL,
LIFT INTO A SCATTERED-BROKEN CU FIELD BY MID DAY WITH BASES
3500-4500FT.
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SHOWER
AND T-STORM ACTIVITY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE GREATEST IN THE TRIAD REGION BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM...AND IN
THE KRDU/KFAY AND KRWI VICINITY BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. AHEAD OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SLY
WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25KTS.
THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS
EVENING WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT. DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY CAUSE VFR CEILINGS MONDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. LEADING EDGE FROM
AROUND NEW TOWN TO DICKINSON AND HETTINGER. CONVECTION IS MOVING
INTO A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION OVER HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES IS STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ENHANCED WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
BUT OVERALL...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE
CONVECTION MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY
OVER EAST CENTRAL MONTANA...BEHIND THE FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION COULD STILL BE ROBUST YET THIS EVENING...BUT THINK
THAT BY THE TIME IT REACHES NORTH DAKOTA...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE MINIMAL. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RUC KEEPS THE CONVECTION MOVING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN TACT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...SO KEPT
PREVIOUS HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS BUT MENTIONED ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDER. DID TRIM POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15
TO 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1056 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT/
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. SHORT WAVE SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN SD AND THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS. LATEST HRRR HAS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO FAR
WESTERN CWA AFTER 07Z OR 08Z WHICH IS WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST SO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE OR UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. CURRENTLY SEEING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK WAVE. WILL HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BE STRONG...BUT
MAY CONTAIN AT LEAST EMBEDDED THUNDER. KEPT TEMPO TSRA IN THE KHON
TAF...JUST PUT SHRA IN KFSD AND KSUX TAFS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
EXPECTED WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THEY PUSH EAST. SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE COMMON. THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REFORM BY
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF A TYNDALL SOUTH DAKOTA...TO SIOUX
FALLS TO MARSHALL MINNESOTA LINE...THOUGH THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING. /CHENARD
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT/
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE WIND DIRECTION...COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON
LOW TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT. GOING FORECAST LOWS ALREADY LOOKED
GOOD AND DID NOT ALTER MUCH IF ANY. THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND GREATLY INCREASES MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-310K
LAYER IN OUR NW ZONES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTED...FEEL WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT JUXTAPOSED WITH HIGH
700-500MB MOISTURE...THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY BE IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT AROUND THE HURON AREA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE ALONG AND WEST OF I 29.
SUNDAY MORNING...THE MID LEVEL WAVE ADVANCES QUICKLY EASTWARD AND IS
ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA BY 18Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
RAPIDLY WANES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AND OPTED TO JUST GO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. DID NOT GO LIKELY
POPS ANYWHERE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS ON
THEIR EASTWARD TRACK. THEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SUBTLE SURFACE TO
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD. THEREFORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WARRANTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
AND AXIS FROM YANKTON...TO SIOUX FALLS...AND INTO SW MN. THESE AREAS
WILL SEE SOME ENHANCED ASCENT DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IT IS
MOST UNSTABLE HOWEVER IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A DECIDED LACK OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS. THEREFORE THE HIGH CAPE VALUES WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MAY BE JUST AN ARTIFACT OF STRONG SURFACE
HEATING WITH NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO KICK CONVECTION OFF. BUT ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS...IF ANY STORMS CAN BECOME TIED TO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 80 TO 85 STILL LOOK VERY
REASONABLE. /MJF
WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE
SUNDAY EVENING AS BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ON MONDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES NOT A WHOLE LOT
DIFFERENT THAN SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE AREA. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
SIMILAR DAY ON TUESDAY...ALBEIT A LITTLE BREEZIER IN THE WEST.
HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN MONDAY AS THERMAL PROFILES
COOL SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS STILL UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TRENDING TOWARD BROADER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE EASTERN TROUGH LOSES HOLD. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
OUR AREA AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
PRETTY LIMITED AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
STRAY ACTIVITY BRUSHING OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH CONVECTION THAT
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT ON SATURDAY...MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA ON THAT DAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
VERY SIMILAR EACH DAY...AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TRENDING WARMER ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. /JM
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
820 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT/
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. SHORT WAVE SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDWERSTORMS INTO WESTERN SD AND THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS. LATEST HRRR HAS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO FAR
WESTERN CWA AFTER 07Z OR 08Z WHICH IS WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST SO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE OR UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. AS A WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECTING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH
EAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THUS PUT A TEMPO MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS TO BE STRONG...BUT SHOULD CONTAIN AT LEAST EMBEDDED THUNDER.
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD NOT BE COMMON. THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REFORM BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF A TYNDALL
SOUTH DAKOTA...TO SIOUX FALLS TO MARSHALL MINNESOTA LINE. ...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. /CHENARD
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT/
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE WIND DIRECTION...COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON
LOW TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT. GOING FORECAST LOWS ALREADY LOOKED
GOOD AND DID NOT ALTER MUCH IF ANY. THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND GREATLY INCREASES MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-310K
LAYER IN OUR NW ZONES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTED...FEEL WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT JUXTAPOSED WITH HIGH
700-500MB MOISTURE...THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY BE IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT AROUND THE HURON AREA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE ALONG AND WEST OF I 29.
SUNDAY MORNING...THE MID LEVEL WAVE ADVANCES QUICKLY EASTWARD AND IS
ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA BY 18Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
RAPIDLY WANES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AND OPTED TO JUST GO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. DID NOT GO LIKELY
POPS ANYWHERE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS ON
THEIR EASTWARD TRACK. THEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SUBTLE SURFACE TO
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD. THEREFORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WARRANTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
AND AXIS FROM YANKTON...TO SIOUX FALLS...AND INTO SW MN. THESE AREAS
WILL SEE SOME ENHANCED ASCENT DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IT IS
MOST UNSTABLE HOWEVER IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A DECIDED LACK OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS. THEREFORE THE HIGH CAPE VALUES WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MAY BE JUST AN ARTIFACT OF STRONG SURFACE
HEATING WITH NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO KICK CONVECTION OFF. BUT ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS...IF ANY STORMS CAN BECOME TIED TO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 80 TO 85 STILL LOOK VERY
REASONABLE. /MJF
WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE
SUNDAY EVENING AS BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ON MONDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES NOT A WHOLE LOT
DIFFERENT THAN SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE AREA. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
SIMILAR DAY ON TUESDAY...ALBEIT A LITTLE BREEZIER IN THE WEST.
HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN MONDAY AS THERMAL PROFILES
COOL SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS STILL UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TRENDING TOWARD BROADER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE EASTERN TROUGH LOSES HOLD. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
OUR AREA AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
PRETTY LIMITED AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
STRAY ACTIVITY BRUSHING OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH CONVECTION THAT
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT ON SATURDAY...MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA ON THAT DAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
VERY SIMILAR EACH DAY...AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TRENDING WARMER ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. /JM
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1020 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT/
SOUTHEAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IS STILL COMING THROUGH AND SHOULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST.
WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON DETAILS...AM CONCENTRATING THE SHOWERS MORE
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE START OF THE
EVENING...AND HAVE DECREASED CHANCES OF RAIN SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH
THOUGH THERE WILL STILL AT LEAST BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.
TIMING OF SYSTEM ON EARLIER FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH SHOWERS
MOVING MOSTLY OUR DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED A LITTLE
ADJUSTMENT UP IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTH...WITH
LESSER RAIN THREAT AND LIKELY THINNER CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH 02/00Z AND DECREASE TO THE EAST
02/00Z-06Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT TOO HIGH AND ANY LOWERING OF
CONDITIONS TO MVFR WILL LIKELY BE LOCAL AND BRIEF...AND MOSTLY NEAR
THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA INCLUDING KSUX. AFTER 02/06Z CURRENTLY
EXPECT VFR FOR THE AREA THROUGH 02/18Z. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPLORE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE 02/08Z-14Z TIME FRAME
BUT NO GENERAL LOWERING OF VISIBILITIES IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT/
SHARPENING SHORTWAVE HARD TO MISS THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...AND THIS WAVE WILL TRANSECT THE CWA TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...LEADING TO A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF PV ADVECTION...COLLOCATED WITH A
STRONG BELT OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION. ONE BIG
CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS A LARGE INCREASE TO POPS INTO THE LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL RANGE WITH SYSTEM. TIMING AGAIN A CONCERN...WITH
MANY EARLIER HRRR RUNS BEING FAIRLY FRANTIC TAKING PRECIP UP TO
THE I29 CORRIDOR BY NOON. LATEST COUPLE HAVE SLOWED UP A BIT...BUT
AGAIN AS WITH THE SYSTEM A COUPLE DAYS AGO...THE DIV Q FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT LEADING PRECIP COULD JUMP AHEAD SOMEWHAT QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED...AND DID PUSH UP INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER POPS A COUPLE
HOURS HEADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK LEADING WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN SD ALREADY GETTING FAIRLY
WELL ORGANIZED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY IS REALLY
FAIRLY MINIMAL...300-500 J/KG THROUGH MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...SO EXPECT THAT THUNDER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY END UP A
CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW THE RAINFALL...BUT WORTHY OF MENTION. NOT
EXPECTING THE DECENT DEEP SHEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
ORGANIZATION AND THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL...WHICH IS VERY VERY
LOW THROUGH THE WEST. OVERALL...THE RAINFALL WILL AGAIN HAVE A
STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES TODAY...BOTH KEEPING HIGHS
SOMEWHAT LOWER...AND ALSO IN NONDIURNAL TRENDS.
WAVE ZIPS THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...OUTRUNNING THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE TO PRECIPITATION
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS IT SHIFTS THROUGH MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
WITH EXPECTATION OF CLOUDS HOLDING SOMEWHAT TOUGH FROM NW IA THROUGH
THE I29 CORRIDOR...HAVE KEPT LOWS UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PEACH OF A DAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING ACROSS
THE AREA. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS MIX OUT ALONG I29...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND MIXING TO
THE MID 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S WEST. HOWEVER...TEMPS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CHILLY ALOFT...AND 50-70 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS IN THE EAST ON
SATURDAY MIDDAY THROUGH MUCH OF AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LARGER
SCALE FAIRLY HOSTILE TO LIFT WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE FORCING...KEPT
ISOLATED LEVEL POPS CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AND SETTLED ON INCREASING
THE SKYCOVER WITH EXPECTED CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION...MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
MODESTLY...AND WITH ADVERTISED CONVERGENCE POINT ALONG WITH THE
ADVANCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...COULD GET SOME ROGUE CONVECTION
LATER AT NIGHT THROUGH SD CWA...MAINLY NORTH.
SUNDAY IS STILL A BIT OF A QUANDARY...WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
LARGE MCS ACROSS SW MN TO EXTREME WARMTH. SHOULD BE WARMER...
ESPECIALLY WEST AS BUILDING RIDGE ALLOWS WARMER AIRMASS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...SOME QUESTION AS TO IMPACT FROM EARLY DAY
CONVECTION TO TEMPS NORTH/EAST...AND WAS SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE
IN HEATING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ALOFT THAT
EXPECT THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST END...BUT AREAS FARTHER NORTHEAST/EAST MAY SEE SOME
RESURGENCE IN DEVELOPMENT HEADING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. POPS REFLECT THE LOWER EXPECTATIONS WESTWARD ALONG
BOUNDARY...WHILE MAINTAINING CHANCE LEVELS TO THE EAST. IF
THUNDERSTORM WERE TO GET GOING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WOULD PROVE MARGINAL FOR SOME MINOR SEVERE THREAT.
DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ EXPECTATIONS ARE
THAT AMPLIFYING BLOCKING RIDGE WILL MORE OR LESS PROTECT THE AREA
FROM PRECIPITATION THREAT. SOME ROGUE SOLUTIONS /NAMELY THE 00Z
ECMWF/ NOW ARE BACKING TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TAKING
ENERGY WESTWARD THROUGH RIDGE TO MELD WITH WESTERN TROUGH IN AN
ELONGATED EAST WEST AXIS...WHICH SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY IN THE ARRAY
OF SOLUTIONS...PROBABLY AS MUCH AS THE GFS WITH PUSHY PIECE OF
WESTERN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WED/WED NIGHT. GENERALLY...
WITH SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM NORTH/NORTHEAST...WOULD BELIEVE
THAT SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT LEAST ON TUESDAY MORNING...SAW THIS AS OPPORTUNITY TO FAVOR MUCH
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEAN NUMBERS. HIGHS WILL
MAINLY START IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST...BUT SHOULD SEE A SLOW FALL
IN NUMBERS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RESULT OF POTENTIALLY GREATER AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS...BUT ALSO A SLOW COOLING OF THE OVERALL AIRMASS AS THE
MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS SETTLES IN. DID KEEP SOME VERY SMALL POPS
BRUSHING THE FAR WEST OR SOUTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR MINIMAL RISK OF
CONVECTION ENCROACHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. /CHAPMAN
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
454 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT/
SHARPENING SHORTWAVE HARD TO MISS THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...AND THIS WAVE WILL TRANSECT THE CWA TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...LEADING TO A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF PV ADVECTION...COLLOCATED WITH A
STRONG BELT OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION. ONE BIG
CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS A LARGE INCREASE TO POPS INTO THE LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL RANGE WITH SYSTEM. TIMING AGAIN A CONCERN...WITH
MANY EARLIER HRRR RUNS BEING FAIRLY FRANTIC TAKING PRECIP UP TO
THE I29 CORRIDOR BY NOON. LATEST COUPLE HAVE SLOWED UP A BIT...BUT
AGAIN AS WITH THE SYSTEM A COUPLE DAYS AGO...THE DIV Q FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT LEADING PRECIP COULD JUMP AHEAD SOMEWHAT QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED...AND DID PUSH UP INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER POPS A COUPLE
HOURS HEADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK LEADING WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN SD ALREADY GETTING FAIRLY
WELL ORGANIZED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY IS REALLY
FAIRLY MINIMAL...300-500 J/KG THROUGH MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...SO EXPECT THAT THUNDER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY END UP A
CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW THE RAINFALL...BUT WORTHY OF MENTION. NOT
EXPECTING THE DECENT DEEP SHEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
ORGANIZATION AND THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL...WHICH IS VERY VERY
LOW THROUGH THE WEST. OVERALL...THE RAINFALL WILL AGAIN HAVE A
STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES TODAY...BOTH KEEPING HIGHS
SOMEWHAT LOWER...AND ALSO IN NONDIURNAL TRENDS.
WAVE ZIPS THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...OUTRUNNING THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE TO PRECIPITATION
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS IT SHIFTS THROUGH MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
WITH EXPECTATION OF CLOUDS HOLDING SOMEWHAT TOUGH FROM NW IA THROUGH
THE I29 CORRIDOR...HAVE KEPT LOWS UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PEACH OF A DAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING ACROSS
THE AREA. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS MIX OUT ALONG I29...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND MIXING TO
THE MID 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S WEST. HOWEVER...TEMPS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CHILLY ALOFT...AND 50-70 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS IN THE EAST ON
SATURDAY MIDDAY THROUGH MUCH OF AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LARGER
SCALE FAIRLY HOSTILE TO LIFT WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE FORCING...KEPT
ISOLATED LEVEL POPS CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AND SETTLED ON INCREASING
THE SKYCOVER WITH EXPECTED CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION...MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
MODESTLY...AND WITH ADVERTISED CONVERGENCE POINT ALONG WITH THE
ADVANCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...COULD GET SOME ROGUE CONVECTION
LATER AT NIGHT THROUGH SD CWA...MAINLY NORTH.
SUNDAY IS STILL A BIT OF A QUANDARY...WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
LARGE MCS ACROSS SW MN TO EXTREME WARMTH. SHOULD BE WARMER...
ESPECIALLY WEST AS BUILDING RIDGE ALLOWS WARMER AIRMASS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...SOME QUESTION AS TO IMPACT FROM EARLY DAY
CONVECTION TO TEMPS NORTH/EAST...AND WAS SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE
IN HEATING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ALOFT THAT
EXPECT THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST END...BUT AREAS FARTHER NORTHEAST/EAST MAY SEE SOME
RESURGENCE IN DEVELOPMENT HEADING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. POPS REFLECT THE LOWER EXPECTATIONS WESTWARD ALONG
BOUNDARY...WHILE MAINTAINING CHANCE LEVELS TO THE EAST. IF
THUNDERSTORM WERE TO GET GOING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WOULD PROVE MARGINAL FOR SOME MINOR SEVERE THREAT.
DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ EXPECTATIONS ARE
THAT AMPLIFYING BLOCKING RIDGE WILL MORE OR LESS PROTECT THE AREA
FROM PRECIPITATION THREAT. SOME ROGUE SOLUTIONS /NAMELY THE 00Z
ECMWF/ NOW ARE BACKING TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TAKING
ENERGY WESTWARD THROUGH RIDGE TO MELD WITH WESTERN TROUGH IN AN
ELONGATED EAST WEST AXIS...WHICH SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY IN THE ARRAY
OF SOLUTIONS...PROBABLY AS MUCH AS THE GFS WITH PUSHY PIECE OF
WESTERN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WED/WED NIGHT. GENERALLY...
WITH SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM NORTH/NORTHEAST...WOULD BELIEVE
THAT SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT LEAST ON TUESDAY MORNING...SAW THIS AS OPPORTUNITY TO FAVOR MUCH
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEAN NUMBERS. HIGHS WILL
MAINLY START IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST...BUT SHOULD SEE A SLOW FALL
IN NUMBERS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RESULT OF POTENTIALLY GREATER AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS...BUT ALSO A SLOW COOLING OF THE OVERALL AIRMASS AS THE
MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS SETTLES IN. DID KEEP SOME VERY SMALL POPS
BRUSHING THE FAR WEST OR SOUTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR MINIMAL RISK OF
CONVECTION ENCROACHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. /CHAPMAN
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...REACHING KHON AROUND 17Z...AND KFSD/KSUX AROUND
19Z. ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD MOSTLY BE LOW-END VFR...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR TS ACTIVITY WHEN TEMPORARY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SHRA/TS ARE EXPECTED TO END AT KHON
BY 23Z...AND AT KFSD/KSUX BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS BY MID MORNING...AND THEN
DECREASE TO AOB 5 KTS AFTER 01Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
428 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT/
SHARPENING SHORTWAVE HARD TO MISS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA...AND THIS WAVE WILL TRANSECT THE CWA TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL...GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF PV ADVECTION...COLLOCATED WITH A STRONG BELT OF LOWER TO
MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION. ONE BIG CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS A LARGE
INCREASE TO POPS INTO THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE WITH SYSTEM.
TIMING AGAIN A CONCERN...WITH MANY EARLIER HRRR RUNS BEING FAIRLY
FRANTIC TAKING PRECIP UP TO THE I29 CORRIDOR BY NOON. LATEST COUPLE
HAVE SLOWED UP A BIT...BUT AGAIN AS WITH THE SYSTEM A COUPLE DAYS
AGO...THE DIV Q FIELDS SUGGEST THAT LEADING PRECIP COULD JUMP AHEAD
SOMEWHAT QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...AND DID PUSH UP INTRODUCTION OF
HIGHER POPS A COUPLE HOURS HEADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIP
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LEADING WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN SD ALREADY
GETTING FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
INSTABILITY IS REALLY FAIRLY MINIMAL...300-500 J/KG THROUGH MAINLY
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT THAT THUNDER COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY END UP A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW THE RAINFALL...BUT WORTHY OF
MENTION. NOT EXPECTING THE DECENT DEEP SHEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
ORGANIZATION AND THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL...WHICH IS VERY VERY LOW
THROUGH THE WEST. OVERALL...THE RAINFALL WILL AGAIN HAVE A STRONG
INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES TODAY...BOTH KEEPING HIGHS SOMEWHAT
LOWER...AND ALSO IN NONDIURNAL TRENDS.
WAVE ZIPS THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...OUTRUNNING THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE TO PRECIPITATION
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS IT SHIFTS THROUGH MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
WITH EXPECTATION OF CLOUDS HOLDING SOMEWHAT TOUGH FROM NW IA THROUGH
THE I29 CORRIDOR...HAVE KEPT LOWS UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PEACH OF A DAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING ACROSS
THE AREA. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS MIX OUT ALONG I29...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND MIXING TO
THE MID 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S WEST. HOWEVER...TEMPS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CHILLY ALOFT...AND 50-70 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS IN THE EAST ON
SATURDAY MIDDAY THROUGH MUCH OF AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LARGER
SCALE FAIRLY HOSTILE TO LIFT WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE FORCING...KEPT
ISOLATED LEVEL POPS CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AND SETTLED ON INCREASING
THE SKYCOVER WITH EXPECTED CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION...MAINLY TO THE NORTH ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
MODESTLY...AND WITH ADVERTISED CONVERGENCE POINT ALONG WITH THE
ADVANCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...COULD GET SOME ROGUE CONVECTION
LATER AT NIGHT THROUGH SD CWA...MAINLY NORTH.
SUNDAY IS STILL A BIT OF A QUANDRY...WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
LARGE MCS ACROSS SW MN TO EXTREME WARMTH. SHOULD BE WARMER...
ESPECIALLY WEST AS BUILDING RIDGE ALLOWS WARMER AIRMASS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...SOME QUESTION AS TO IMPACT FROM EARLY DAY
CONVECTION TO TEMPS NORTH/EAST...AND WAS SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE
IN HEATING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ALOFT THAT
EXPECT THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST END...BUT AREAS FARTHER NORTHEAST/EAST MAY SEE SOME
RESURGENCE IN DEVELOPMENT HEADING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. POPS REFLECT THE LOWER EXPECTATIONS WESTWARD ALONG
BOUNDARY...WHILE MAINTAINING CHANCE LEVELS TO THE EAST. IF
THUNDERSTORM WERE TO GET GOING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WOULD PROVE MARGINAL FOR SOME MINOR SEVERE THREAT.
DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ EXPECTATIONS ARE
THAT AMPLIFYING BLOCKING RIDGE WILL MORE OR LESS PROTECT THE AREA
FROM PRECIPITATION THREAT. SOME ROGUE SOLUTIONS /NAMELY THE 00Z
ECMWF/ NOW ARE BACKING TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TAKING
ENERGY WESTWARD THROUGH RIDGE TO MELD WITH WESTERN TROUGH IN AN
ELONGATED EAST WEST AXIS...WHICH SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY IN THE ARRAY
OF SOLUTIONS...PROBABLY AS MUCH AS THE GFS WITH PUSHY PIECE OF
WESTERN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WED/WED NIGHT. GENERALLY...
WITH SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM NORTH/NORTHEAST...WOULD BELIEVE
THAT SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT LEAST ON TUESDAY MORNING...SAW THIS AS OPPORTUNITY TO FAVOR MUCH
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEAN NUMBERS. HIGHS WILL
MAINLY START IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST...BUT SHOULD SEE A SLOW FALL
IN NUMBERS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RESULT OF POTENTIALLY GREATER AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS...BUT ALSO A SLOW COOLING OF THE OVERALL AIRMASS AS THE
MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS SETTLES IN. DID KEEP SOME VERY SMALL POPS
BRUSHING THE FAR WEST OR SOUTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR MINIMAL RISK OF
CONVECTION ENCROACHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. /CHAPMAN
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 18Z
WITH VISIBILITY POSSIBLY DROPPING TO NEAR 5 MILES WITH THE STRONGER
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF CWA BY 03Z
SATURDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
625 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR KCDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
THERE IS STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS EVENING OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT KCDS. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
CONTINUE WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES ON STORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FLOW WAS BACKING AND WEAKENING A BIT /AS SEEN
IN THE TUCUMCARI PROFILER DATA/ AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS SHIFTING
FROM THE EASTERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AN EJECTING
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL CO INTO NORTHEAST NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO
ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AS IT TRANSLATES
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND PERHAPS OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE WAS ALSO
ENHANCING THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM...AND
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION COULD MATERIALIZE WITHIN THE SFC TROUGH HERE
TOO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LAST PLACE OF CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ALONG A RETREATING BOUNDARY NOTED ON
RADAR LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. UP TO
THIS POINT CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY TAME.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE 18Z RAP AND 16Z HRRR DO INDICATE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HR IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. 19Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC BASED
CAPES OF 800-2400 J/KG WITH DIMINISHING CIN. GIVEN T/TD SPREADS
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS
WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER CORES ALOFT AND THE INSTABILITY
COULD ALSO SUPPORT THE OCCURRENCE OF LARGE HAIL. ALL SAID...HAVE
DRAWN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE N/NW/W ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ COULD KEEP
SOME ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FAVORING THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. SOUTHERLY BREEZES...DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS AND SOME
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
HEIGHTS WILL BE EVEN HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THIS FLOW REGIME WILL CAUSE THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST...STRONG HEATING/MIXING COUPLED WITH
THE DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER
WEAK /AOB 20 KTS/...SO STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE TOUGH TO COME
BY...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPLY MIXED BL COULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WITH HIGHS NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TO POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUILDING ON YESTERDAYS TURNABOUT WITH RESPECT
TO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. 12Z RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH A NARROW BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BACK
INTO THE NRN ZONES MONDAY THEN SLIP FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY. BACKING
FLOW TO SE THEN EVENTUALLY EAST SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE DRYLINE FROM MIXING TOO
FAR TO THE EAST. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE
RIDGE LEADING TO PROGGED PWAT BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES MONDAY WITH
EASTERN AREAS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WHEN CONSIDERING RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE
RIDGE STORM ORGANIZATION NOT TOO LIKELY THUS PRECIP COULD END UP
BEING SCATTERED...BUT HIGHER PWATS SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIP
MENTION FOR MONDAY FAVORING NRN ZONES CLOSEST TO EXPECTED BOUNDARY
POSITION AND INSERT PRECIP MENTION INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK TO POTENTIALLY END PRECIP CHANCES. WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW AND POTENTIALLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER COOLER
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
ALTHOUGH GIVEN PROGGED THICKNESSES IT APPEARS MOS GUIDANCE MAY BE
A TOUCH COOL AND WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARD WARMER END OF
ENSEMBLE NUMBERS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 98 62 93 62 / 40 10 10 20 30
TULIA 66 98 65 92 65 / 40 20 20 20 30
PLAINVIEW 68 97 66 93 65 / 30 20 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 66 99 67 96 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 69 100 69 96 67 / 20 20 20 20 20
DENVER CITY 67 99 67 96 63 / 20 20 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 67 100 67 96 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 69 101 70 96 68 / 30 20 20 10 30
SPUR 69 101 69 97 68 / 20 20 20 10 20
ASPERMONT 70 100 71 98 70 / 20 10 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
249 PM PDT Fri Jun 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend will get off to a wet start as a strong and moist
cold front will promote widespread showers and breezy
conditions. The latter half of the weekend will see drier
conditions. Temperatures will remain near or cooler than normal
for this time of year. A brief warm-up is expected on Monday ahead
of a strong cold front. This front will likely deliver some
thunderstorms on Monday into Monday evening. The remainder of the
week will see a progressive pattern with occasional showers and
cooler than normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Saturday...Satellite imagery this afternoon indicated
a cold front along 130W with models showing this front to move
rapidly eastward into the Inland Northwest overnight tonight into
Saturday morning. The front will cross the Cascades overnight into
Eastern Washington, reaching the Idaho Panhandle late tonight into
Saturday morning. Prior to the front passage a moist and somewhat
unstable air mass will result in scattered showers over northeast
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle as well as the East Slopes of
the Cascades. LAPS data from this afternoon indicated CAPES of
200-600 J/KG over the Blues, Northeast Washington Mountains and
Idaho Panhandle. However visible satellite trends and HRRR argue
for only a minimal thunder threat so opted to remove the
thunderstorm wording this evening.
Then as the cold front crosses the Cascades a right entrance
region of an upper jet will result in added lift such that bands
of showers will likely develop over North Central Washington with
this activity moving east during the night as the front and jet
move east. Meanwhile...the most intense showers are expected over
the Blues Mountains, Lewiston area, and Camas Prairie as an area of
elevated instability passes through. Could see isolated
thunderstorms in these areas overnight into Saturday morning.
Behind the front a pronounced dry slot will bring clearing from
west to east on Saturday. This will be especially pronounced in
the lee of the Cascades with a mostly sunny and breezy day
expected. Over the Northeast Washington Mountains and Idaho
Panhandle lingering instability in the afternoon will likely
trigger additional post frontal shower activity along with a
slight chance of thunderstorms. JW
Saturday night through Monday...Strong upper level low is expected to
remain parked over the Gulf of Alaska through the weekend.
Various disturbances will wrap around the eastern periphery of the
low...but the brunt of the energy will generally skirt the region.
Models are in good agreement that the first disturbance will drift
inside of 130w by 12z Sunday then continue northeast and weaken as
it heads across western Washington. Potential instability with
this system looks rather paltry while much of the moisture is
confined above 700 mbs. Suspect the main impact will be an
increasing cloud trend as well as a chance of light rain showers
or sprinkles...with the best chances occurring over the SE portion
of the forecast area. The models have been backing off of late on
the QPF amounts and if this continues...pops may need to be
lowered even further.
By late Sunday night and into Monday...the pattern becomes much more
interesting as the aforementioned Gulf of Alaska low drops south
and east...turning the mean flow to more of a southerly
orientation. The n-s oriented upper level jet is expected to
bisect Washington by late afternoon...with the eastern third of
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle under the strongly difluent
upper level flow. This flow will coincide with a rapid
destabilization the lower atmosphere warms in response to the low-
level southerly flow. By afternoon...CAPE values surge toward 1000
j/kg...with only weak CIN or convective caps expected. All that`s
needed to tap into this instability and overcome this CIN is a
trigger. None of the models are forecasting a shortwave trough to
get things going during the afternoon...as much of the upper level
energy will remain far south of the forecast area. Thus the main
trigger will have to come from orographic ascent. It`s always
difficult to tell if this ascent will be strong enough to overcome
the CIN...but if it does...thunderstorms could develop rapidly.
Any updrafts could become sustained as 0-6 km shear values look
fairly impressive. Based on model soundings...we cannot rule out
an isolated severe or large thunderstorm....however confidence
would be much higher provided a shortwave would aid in the
breaking of the CIN.
Temperatures will begin the period near seasonal normals...however the
Monday pattern will lead to a significant warm up over the eastern
half of the forecast area...with 70s and even a lower 80 possible.
fx
Monday night through Friday...Overall agreement between models
exists in advertising the arrival of a deep upper level
trough/closed low early in the period...a residence time over or
near the forecast area during the lion`s share of the upcoming
work week...and then the slow departure near the end of the week.
Individual models differ with detailed placement of the main
trough axis/closed low center...but no matter which model verifies
confidence is increasing for a cooler than normal and unsettled
forecast through most of next week. While there are no easily
identifiable organized storm systems within this flow regime...the
presence of wrap-around moisture providing fuel for instability
associated with cool air aloft will create a chance of showers
just about anywhere in the forecast area each day through Thursday
at least...with densest concentrations of showers over the high
terrain surrounding the basin and the eastern half of the Columbia
Basin. By Friday model consensus suggests an exit of the upper
level trough...which may provide the best bet for an essentially
dry day...although southwest flow in advance of the next offshore
trough may lead to a few showers on the higher terrain even on this
day. Once again...without drilling too much into the details given
sub-synoptic model differences...there is fairly high confidence
of a showery...cool and unsettled extended period. /Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Abundant low level moisture across Northeast Washington
and North Idaho will result in low cloud bases with MVFR conditions
at times through 19-21z with gradually rises CIGS in the afternoon.
The atmosphere will become unstable this afternoon with cumulus
buildups over Northeast Washington and North Idaho with sct -SHRA
and isolated TSRA expected north of the KGEG-KCOE corridor. This
activity will die off around 1-3z. Then a vigorous cold front will
cross the Cascades after 06z with increasing showers along and ahead
of the front especially at KPUW and KLWS. Mid level instability may
also trigger thunderstorms in this area mainly from 6-15z Saturday.
Increasing rain showers and low level upslope flow into KPUW should
result in MVFR conditions 11-16z. KLWS may also see MVFR conditions
per NAM model rh time height plots. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 54 70 47 67 48 69 / 60 60 10 10 20 60
Coeur d`Alene 53 69 46 65 49 72 / 60 70 10 10 30 60
Pullman 55 68 44 65 49 68 / 60 60 10 10 40 60
Lewiston 61 73 53 72 55 75 / 60 60 10 10 50 60
Colville 52 76 45 73 47 70 / 70 50 0 10 10 70
Sandpoint 53 68 42 65 44 71 / 60 80 10 20 20 70
Kellogg 52 66 44 64 47 73 / 60 90 10 30 40 60
Moses Lake 58 77 50 74 53 68 / 40 20 0 10 30 60
Wenatchee 57 75 54 72 55 65 / 30 10 0 0 20 50
Omak 53 76 47 72 47 67 / 50 10 0 10 10 60
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1045 PM PDT Thu May 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend with mostly cloudy skies, breezy conditions and a
chance of showers will sum up the weather through Friday. On
Saturday, a strong and moist cold front will promote widespread
showers and breezy conditions...also ushering in cooler than
normal temperatures for the new work week. A progressive pattern with
a few showers will continue into the work week with the best
chance of widespread showers on or about Monday through Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening Update: We are focusing on two mechanisms for pcpn for
the remainder of the evening and overnight periods. The first is
shallow instability...upsloping flow...and weak 300K isentropic
ascent responsible for isolated showers across the Idaho
Panhandle. The second is a strengthening warm front bringing
widespread rain to W WA and into my Cascades and Okanogan Country
overnight.
Addressing the earlier, 00z KOTX sounding indicates steep or nearly
dry adiabatic lapse rates from 840-710mb with CAPE extending
upwards to 530mb. By this time of day, temperatures typically cool
and showers are waning however, with abundant mid and high level
moisture streaming across the region and dewpoints in the
50`s...we have not experienced a whole lot of cooling and with
the combination of ascent noted on the the light veering wind
profile, upsloping flow in the ID mountains, and very little cin
with surface temperatures still in the 60`s, isolated shower
activity continues to blossom across portions of Spokane...
Kootenai...and Shoshone Counties as of 9:45PM PDT. Additional
rainfall with this activity should remain light and generally
near a 0.01" or less.
Further west, a sharp area of darkening via water vapor shows a
well defined shortwave trough swinging around the Gulf of AK low
and quickly approaching 130W. Models appear to have a good handle
on the positioning of this midlevel energy and resultant surface
low deepening along 130W arnd 6z. This has resulted in incr warm
frontal pcpn for Western WA which will be spreading onto the
Cascade Crest close to 6z. The main surface low will take a track
toward the N/NE into W BC lifting the eastern edge of the warm
front across N WA 6-12z which will lead to incr clouds and
possibility for light rain for locations from Mazama to Colville.
The 00z GFS is the only model showing any measurable pcpn with the
01z HRRR indicating light echoes on its composite reflectivity
but little in the way of measurable pcpn away from the immediate
crest. Due to the high moisture content within this subtropical
airmass and response to weak lift Thur morning from a similar
front, we have incr PoPs across the north for the 6-12z period.
We have also included fog near the Sandpoint...Bonners
Ferry...Priest Lake areas where heavier showers were present
earlier this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Abundant mid and upper-level moisture will continue to
stream into the region under persistent moist westerly flow aloft.
There is a small chance for isold -shra across N ID through the
night but any activity will remain on the very light side. Showers
earlier this aftn have left very moist BL conditions with fog likely
in the valleys for locations N of a line from KSZT-KCQV. A warm
front will spread rain and widespread mtn obscrns into the Cascades
6-12z with light shwrs expanding E along the WA/Canadian early this
morning. The combination of a surface heating and lift along the
warm front Friday aftn will incr -shra chance for most locations
along and north of highway 2. A stronger front will bring incr pcpn
chance shortly aft 6z Friday night. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 53 76 54 70 44 67 / 10 20 30 60 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 51 75 55 69 45 66 / 20 30 50 70 30 10
Pullman 52 76 53 66 43 65 / 20 10 30 70 30 20
Lewiston 56 83 59 75 50 72 / 20 10 40 60 20 20
Colville 50 80 54 77 45 72 / 10 50 50 70 20 10
Sandpoint 49 73 52 70 44 65 / 60 50 50 70 30 20
Kellogg 49 74 51 69 43 67 / 20 50 40 80 60 20
Moses Lake 54 84 57 75 47 72 / 10 10 20 20 10 0
Wenatchee 57 81 57 73 49 72 / 10 10 20 20 10 0
Omak 51 80 52 76 44 73 / 10 30 50 30 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1001 PM PDT Thu May 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend with mostly cloudy skies, breezy conditions and a
chance of showers will sum up the weather through Friday. On
Saturday, a strong and moist cold front will promote widespread
showers and breezy conditions...also ushering in cooler than
normal temperatures for the new work week. A progressive pattern with
a few showers will continue into the work week with the best
chance of widespread showers on or about Monday through Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening Update: We are focusing on two mechanisms for pcpn for
the remainder of the evening and overnight periods. The first is
shallow instability...upsloping flow...and weak 300K isentropic
ascent responsible for isolated showers across the Idaho
Panhandle. The second is a strengthening warm front bringing
widespread rain to W WA and into my Cascades and Okanogan Country
overnight.
Addressing the earlier, 00z KOTX sounding indicates steep or nearly
dry adiabatic lapse rates from 840-710mb with CAPE extending
upwards to 530mb. By this time of day, temperatures typically cool
and showers are waning however, with abundant mid and high level
moisture streaming across the region and dewpoints in the
50`s...we have not experienced a whole lot of cooling and with
the combination of ascent noted on the the light veering wind
profile, upsloping flow in the ID mountains, and very little cin
with surface temperatures still in the 60`s, isolated shower
activity continues to blossom across portions of Spokane...
Kootenai...and Shoshone Counties as of 9:45PM PDT. Additional
rainfall with this activity should remain light and generally
near a 0.01" or less.
Further west, a sharp area of darkening via water vapor shows a
well defined shortwave trough swinging around the Gulf of AK low
and quickly approaching 130W. Models appear to have a good handle
on the positioning of this midlevel energy and resultant surface
low deepening along 130W arnd 6z. This has resulted in incr warm
frontal pcpn for Western WA which will be spreading onto the
Cascade Crest close to 6z. The main surface low will take a track
toward the N/NE into W BC lifting the eastern edge of the warm
front across N WA 6-12z which will lead to incr clouds and
possibility for light rain for locations from Mazama to Colville.
The 00z GFS is the only model showing any measurable pcpn with the
01z HRRR indicating light echoes on its composite reflectivity
but little in the way of measurable pcpn away from the immediate
crest. Due to the high moisture content within this subtropical
airmass and response to weak lift Thur morning from a similar
front, we have incr PoPs across the north for the 6-12z period.
We have also included fog near the Sandpoint...Bonners
Ferry...Priest Lake areas where heavier showers were present
earlier this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Abundant mid and upper-level moisture will continue to
stream into the region under persistent westerly flow aloft. Across
SE WA and the lower ID Panhandle weak warm advection will keep a
shield of stable pcpn going through roughly 02-03z. For NE WA and N
ID...breaks in the midlevel clouds has allowed for convective
showers and isold -tsra mainly east of a line frm KGEG-KCQV. Brief
MVFR cigs will be possible under the heavier showers. This activity
will also persist into the evening hrs...with improving conditions
accompanying sunset. Light SW flow will keep the threat for showers
and mtn obscurations for a majority of the ID Panhandle into Fri
morning. The combination of a surface heating and another
warm front passage on Friday aftn will bring the threat for
additional light -shra across most terminals. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 53 76 54 70 44 67 / 10 20 30 60 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 51 75 55 69 45 66 / 20 30 50 70 30 10
Pullman 52 76 53 66 43 65 / 20 10 30 70 30 20
Lewiston 56 83 59 75 50 72 / 20 10 40 60 20 20
Colville 50 80 54 77 45 72 / 10 50 50 70 20 10
Sandpoint 49 73 52 70 44 65 / 60 50 50 70 30 20
Kellogg 49 74 51 69 43 67 / 20 50 40 80 60 20
Moses Lake 54 84 57 75 47 72 / 10 10 20 20 10 0
Wenatchee 57 81 57 73 49 72 / 10 10 20 20 10 0
Omak 51 80 52 76 44 73 / 10 30 50 30 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMISSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY CENTERED AROUND SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS ROTATING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH ND. COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE MICHIGAN LOW
WAS PRODUCING STEEP TEMPERATURES LAPSE RATES AND EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR QUIET AT THIS POINT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT ECHOES/SHOWERS INDICATED. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE UPSTREAM OVER ND WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO EASTERN NEB. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
01.12Z NCEP MODELS AND 01.09Z SREF SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS A BIT DEEPER WITH
THE MID-LEVEL WAVE ROTATING ACROSS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY FOR BETTER
SATURATION/RAINFALL POTENTIAL. GENERALLY WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND
AS A RESULT.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING THE WAVE OVER ND ROTATE SOUTHEAST
WHILE DAMPENING OUT SOME. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT SOUTHEAST
INTO IA BY 12Z. MOST OF THE FORCING...IE PV-ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT -SHRA CHANCES EXPECTED TO
BE TIED VERY CLOSE TO THE WAVE ITSELF AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA. HI-RES MESO MODELS ALSO SHOWS ACTIVITY REMAINING MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT -SHRA CHANCE
BASICALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AUSTIN MN TO OELWEIN IA AFTER 03Z
UNTIL 12Z. REST OF THE AREA/BASICALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES. THE CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FAIRLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FAVORED COLD SPOT AREAS SUCH AS
SPARTA/BLACK RIVER FALLS. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 40S.
FOR SATURDAY...CLOSED LOW WILL DEEPEN SOME OVER LAKE HURON.
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA
WITH 0-3KM MUCAPE AROUND 800J/KM AND MLCAPE AROUND 500J/KG. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SHRA CHANCES ALONG WITH ISOLD
THUNDER. NAM SHOWING ABOUT 15-16 PVU/S ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94 FOR PERHAPS A BETTER SHOT AT THUNDER
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WITH EXTENSIVE CUMULUS AND ISOLD/SCT SHRA
ACTIVITY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-94. LOOK FOR CLEARING
SKIES THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE REGION WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT FASTER/STRONGER WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
AFFECTS OF THIS WAVE WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD THUNDER. THIS WILL BE MANLY
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEILLSVILLE AND ARCADIA WI...TO CHARLES
CITY IA WHERE NOSE OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BE DIRECTED. LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ROTATE OVER/ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD THUNDER. HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S TO A FEW LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
01.12Z GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING WHERE
EXACTLY OMEGA BLOCK HIGH IS GOING TO SET UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED WITH EACH OTHER/S SOLUTION.
EITHER WAY...APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THIS
RIDGE/OMEGA BLOCK AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES. THIS YIELDS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORTING CU DEVELOPMENT. SEE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCT/ISOLD -SHRA. HRRR KEEPS THIS EAST OF THE TAF
SITES...CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE BETTER
MOISTURE. WILL KEEP ANY -SHRA OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SPIN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT...ACROSS IA EARLY ON SAT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH FEATURES COULD PRODUCE SOME
-SHRA. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY WEST OF KRST
TONIGHT...WHILE SAT AFT/EVENING COULD BRING ISOLD -SHRA TO KLSE.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO SAT
NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
236 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW IS
GENERATING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN THAT IS PIVOTING INTO DOOR COUNTY.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS RESIDE ELSEWHERE WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...THE NAM BECOMES A SOUTHERN OUTLIER WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW BY 12Z SATURDAY SO USED THE GFS AND ECMWF MOSTLY FOR
THIS FORECAST. NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING
NORTH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TO FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...BUT LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR
BELOW 500MB INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...THE
COLUMN WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT OVER MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE
DOOR COUNTY WHERE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN TONIGHT AND SHOULD STILL
HAVE A MID/HIGH DECK OVERHEAD...SO THINK LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH MEANS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER DOOR
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY. WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BY
MIDDAY...WHICH YIELD 100-200 J/KG OF ML CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD DEVELOP AS A RESULT. NOT SURE IF
THE CU WILL GROW LARGE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BE RISING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THAT COULD
INTERACT WITH THE INSTABILITY TO GENERATE THOSE SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. WILL REMOVE POPS OUTSIDE OF DOOR
COUNTY FOR THE MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE THEM FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
CASE THAT SURFACE TROUGH DOES APPEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THRU NEXT FRIDAY. TIMING BEST PRECIP
CHANCES AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL WEATHER
OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK IN...BRINGING AN
END TO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE THE AREA IN THE EVENING...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 40S NORTH...AND LOW 50S SOUTH. WEAK
MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND BUILDS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO RIDE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL SHOW THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS
STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH ITS TIMING...ALIGNING
BETTER WITH THE ECMWF. SOME MINOR TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
STILL REMAIN...BUT HARD TO IGNORE THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND FORCING NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...AND ONLY MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER.
PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS A
VERY BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE CONUS. MODELS HANDLE JUST
HOW BLOCKY THE PATTERN WILL BE DIFFERENTLY...LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORMS WILL BE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE EASTERN SEABOARD...EACH OF WHICH WOULD BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A
POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO WI ON MONDAY NIGHT. OTHER
MODELS WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. HARD TO RULE OUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER...AS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS HIGHER.
HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA...BUT PERSISTENT EAST WINDS NOT ALLOWING THE
REAL WARM AIR TO MAKE IT TO EASTERN WI. WILL CONTINUE USE A "MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD" APPROACH...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAY
BRUSH FAR NE WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE HIGHEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN THERE. WILL HAVE MORE INSTABILITY FOR SHOWER
CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAN TODAY...AND HAVE KEPT THE SCT SHOWER
MENTION OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. NW WINDS MAY ALSO TURN GUSTY
TOMORROW MORNING.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/BERSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
310 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS ON SHOWER CHANCES BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
QUITE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE SEEN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT HAVE BEEN ON THE SLOW DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
OVERALL...01.00Z MODELS OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 500MB LOW LIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 1000MB-850MB LAYER WHERE THEY
WILL BE NEAR 9C/KM. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE THIS THIS
MORNING...CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON IN STORE. WITH THESE LAPSE RATES AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 200 J/KG COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER BY THIS TIME THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
LAPSE RATES NOT QUITE AS STEEP AS TODAY...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. ALL OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING
BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY.
MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS OVER THE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND DID
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS MOST ROBUST AND WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SIDED WITH THE
SLOWER NAM/GEM SOLUTIONS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
310 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
BOTH THE 01.00Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COATS WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDDLE SECTION OF THE CONUS. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
APPEARING LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH HOW STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE AND
WILL IT BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA.
THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST THIS TO BE THE CASE. DID KEEP LOWER END
PROBABILITIES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORTING CU DEVELOPMENT. SEE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCT/ISOLD -SHRA. HRRR KEEPS THIS EAST OF THE TAF
SITES...CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE BETTER
MOISTURE. WILL KEEP ANY -SHRA OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SPIN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT...ACROSS IA EARLY ON SAT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH FEATURES COULD PRODUCE SOME
-SHRA. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY WEST OF KRST
TONIGHT...WHILE SAT AFT/EVENING COULD BRING ISOLD -SHRA TO KLSE.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO SAT
NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
310 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLR
LONG TERM....JLR
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
304 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN CLEARING AND FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOW
DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHEAST TROUGH WI/SOUTHERN WI. COLD
AIR ALOFT/LINGERING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER WAS PRETTY EXTENSIVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE MID/UPPER
50S WHICH IS SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
31.12Z NCEP MODEL SUITE ALONG WITH THE 31.09Z SREF SHOWING GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MORPH INTO A CLOSED LOW
AND MOVE EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
APPEARS A FEW DEFORMATION AREA -SHRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT THEN SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 8-9
PM. THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL SEE SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/FAIRLY MOIST
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG.
MITIGATING FACTOR TO WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10KT AT 500-1000AGL. KEPT
AREAS OF FOG LIMITED TO MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS WHERE
BETTER DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE UPPER 30S IN FAVORED
LOWER-LYING COLD AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
ON FRIDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. CYCLONIC FLOW/COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RESIDE
OVER OUR AREA WITH STEEP 0-3KM TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES IN THE
8.5-9C/KM RANGE. NAM ALSO SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE AROUND 300J/KG. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR EXTENSIVE CUMULUS/TOWERING CUMULUS FIELD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT TO TOP OFF IN THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW LINGERING -SHRA STILL POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF I-94 EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO IA.
FOR SATURDAY...THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN UPPER MI WITH COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS OUR AREA. THE NAM SHOWS 0-3KM
MUCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1000-1400J/KG RANGE WHILE 0-1KM ML CAPE
AROUND 500J/KG. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS/TOWERING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS SATURDAY ANTICIPATED TO TOP OFF
AGAIN IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE. LOOK FOR THE CONVECTION/CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATED BY EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW/COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES FARTHER
EAST TOWARD LAKE HURON AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
WILL GO DRY ON SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS/CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL
HOWEVER LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
304 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
31.12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW A RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TROUGHS RESIDING OVER WEST/EAST COASTS AND RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GETTING PINCHED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SHRA/TS CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND HEADS TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORCING NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALLER-END CHANCES FOR NOW. NARROW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE MORE SEASONABLE
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY
1143 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED OVER THE AREA LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. THIS HAS CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CAN OCCUR AND THUS HAS LIKELY CUT DOWN ON THE PROBABILITY
THAT FOG WILL FORM AT KLSE. THE 01.00Z NAM STILL SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO FORM LATE TONIGHT AS THE TEMP/DEW POINT
COME TOGETHER AND WILL MAINTAIN THE PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
AS STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
304 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
340 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO NEW YORK TODAY...AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY. IT
WILL LINGER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE REGION WILL
ENDURE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS
TRACKING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS
LAKE ERIE THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AN
INCREASE IN THE AC DECK WITH EVEN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY. A
CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND AREA METARS ACROSS
THE CWFA SHOW AMPLE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS. HOWEVER...THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE EXPANDING AREA OF LOWER
STRATUS/FOG FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...PORTIONS OF THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS STRATUS
DECK MAY EXPAND A BIT INTO THE CLEAR SKIES REGION AS THOSE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS NARROW EVEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OCCURS...MAY CONSIDER AN SPS FOR THOSE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AREAS.
OTHERWISE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION EXTENDING FROM THE TUG HILL...CAPITAL DISTRICT...BERKS AND
OUT TOWARD CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL JET AXIS...CENTERED AROUND
500MB...WITH MAGNITUDES >=50KTS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WAS TRACKING EASTWARD WHERE THE -20C AIR
RESIDES. LATEST RAP AND NCEP MODEL SUITE ALL SUGGEST THESE FEATURES
WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AS LEFT EXIT REGION BECOMES IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TOWARD 18Z. MEANWHILE....DIURNAL HEATING OF THE JUNE HIGH
SUN ANGLE WILL ASSIST WITH THE SURFACE PARCELS BECOMING BUOYANT WITH
PROGGED SBCAPES IN THE MID-UPPER 100S J/KG. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 8000 FEET COULD PRODUCE
SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WE WILL INCLUDE
THIS IN THE HWO AND GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITIES FROM SEVERAL MESOSCALE RESOURCES ALL
SUGGEST A ROBUST SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...THOSE REFLECTIVITIES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF COOL AND MOIST
AIR IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. OMEGA FIELDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
AND WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH POPS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ALONG WITH THE TRENDS SEEN IN THE LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. RANGE GENERALLY
LOWER 70S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TONIGHT`S LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN MID 40S AND LOWER 50S
CWA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW THAT IS
ANCHORED OVER THE IMMEDIATE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY THE CUTOFF
INTERACTS WITH COASTAL LOW OFF NOVA SCOTIA AND THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT ALLOWS THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ISENTROPIC LIFT LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL INTO THE N ATLC...AND
THE COLD CONVEYOR INFLOW BREAKS DOWN.
THIS LEAVES THE RGN ON THE WEST SIDE OF 500HPA CUT OFF FOR DAYS.
PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED BY THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF...THE DIURNAL CYCLE INSTABILITY AS 500HPA TEMPS REMAIN
-18C TO -20C...AND AN EVOLVING 1000 MILE PLUS BUT WEAKENING
EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE COOL NORTH ATLC. THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN THE MDL SUITE IS THE DIURNAL CYCLE...SO WILL WILL UP POPS IN
AFTNS.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE CUTOFF CASES...THE MDLS OVER DO THE CLOUDS
AND PCPN...AND HAVE A TENDENCY TO SEEM LIKE ITS GOING TO RAIN FOR
DAYS. WILL TRY TO MINIMIZE THIS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WITH VRBL
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS AM...CHC POPS PM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500HPA CUT OFF CENTER FINALLY IS EJECTED INTO THE N ATLC.
HWVR THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS UNDER A LARGE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT (-20C) THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH
PASSES THROUGH REGION IN THE WAY OF FRONTS...IN THE PSEUDO
BAROTROPIC REGIME WE ARE IN. WITH A LITTLE IMAGINATION ONE MIGHT
FIND A 500HPA SHORT WV IN THIS FLOW. BUT THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL
BE THE DRIVER OF CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA INTO FRI. MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AT THE PEAK OF DIURNAL CYCLE...LESS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING.
THE SIGNAL OF THE END OF OUR COOL 500HPA CUTOFF DOMINATED PATTERN
HAS BEEN IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SVRL RUNS. THIS IS THE BUILDING OF
A VERY LARGE 500HPA RIDGE INTO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL
BE ACCOMP BY A VERY NOTICEABLE WARM UP. THE FIRST PART OF THAT WILL COME
SAT AS A WMFNT AND WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND SCT -TSTMS/-SHRA SPILL
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHALLENGING TAF FORECASTS OVERNIGHT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHILE SOME SOME LOWER STRATUS ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. SO WE WILL ATTEMPT TO
COVER THE LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORY THRESHOLDS IN A TEMPO GROUP AND
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...UPSTREAM THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WE WILL
PLACE A VCSH AND KEEP CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS.
LOWER CIGS AND PERHAPS VIS WILL REAPPEAR SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME
WESTERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NT-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA. CHC LATE NIGHT IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WITHIN BANK RISES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER
STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SPRING 2012 (MARCH...APRIL...MAY) WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST ON RECORD
FOR ALBANY NY WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 52.3 DEGREES (5.3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
TOP 10 WARMEST SPRINGS FOR ALBANY NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1820
1) 52.5 DEGREES 1859
2) 52.3 DEGREES 1871
1921
2012
5) 51.9 DEGREES 1831
6) 51.3 DEGREES 1903
7) 51.1 DEGREES 1846
8) 50.7 DEGREES 1830
9) 50.6 DEGREES 1991
10) 50.4 DEGREES 1826
MARCH 2012 WAS THE WARMEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
45.9 DEGREES (10.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
APRIL 2012 WAS NEAR NORMAL WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 48.1
DEGREES (0.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
MAY 2012 MISSED MAKING THE TOP 10 WARMEST BY 0.7 DEGREES WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 63.1 DEGREES (4.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
SPRING 2012 (MARCH...APRIL...MAY) AVERAGE TEMPERATURES:
GLENS FALLS NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
49.2 DEGREES (5.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WARMEST ON RECORD
POUGHKEEPSIE NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
54.2 DEGREES (6.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WARMEST ON RECORD
BENNINGTON VT: 49.9 DEGREES (5.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
PITTSFIELD MA: 49.4 DEGREES (5.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
FOR MORE GO TO OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/LOCAL_DATA.PHP?WFO=ALY
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
323 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THIS MORNING`S MCS.
SYNOPSIS:
A MCS HAS DEVELOPED FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING.
TODAY - TONIGHT:
THE MCS THAT IS ONGOING THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS. THE HRRR AND GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A RELATIVELY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WHILE THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION. THE MAIN QUESTION AFTER THIS
CONVECTION EXITS TO THE EAST IS WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
SET UP. THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION
CHANCES AND DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE THE STRUGGLES THE 00Z NAM IS HAVING WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...FEEL THAT THE LATER EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 00Z/GFS AND 00Z/EC SUPPORT THE
00Z/NAM DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PUSHING EAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRIME A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE GFS/NAM INDICATING UPWARDS OF
3000-4000 J/KG CAPE BY 21Z WITH 40+KTS SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
COORDINATES WITH WHAT SPC IS THINKING AS OF THEIR 04Z UPDATE. AS
STATED...PIN POINTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT WITH IT DEPENDING ON HOW BOUNDARIES WILL EVOLVE AFTER THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION. BUT IF THERE ARE SOME BOUNDARIES AROUND...LOW
LEVEL HELICITY COULD BE ENHANCED AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI WITH CONVECTION LEAVING THE STATE BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY - SATURDAY:
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...KEEPING KANSAS
UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. A
DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DISLODGE A
POTENT CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE...THE
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH THE OUTWARD EDGES OF THIS SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARER TO NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK-WEEK AFTER AN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRY TO MOVE UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE WORK-WEEK AND THEY COULD SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. HAVE
MAINLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
BILLINGS
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND AFFECT A COUPLE TAF SITES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 89 69 90 67 / 50 50 10 10
HUTCHINSON 89 68 90 66 / 50 40 10 10
NEWTON 87 68 89 66 / 50 50 10 10
ELDORADO 86 68 89 66 / 50 60 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 89 70 90 68 / 50 60 20 10
RUSSELL 90 68 90 64 / 20 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 91 67 90 65 / 30 20 10 10
SALINA 89 69 90 65 / 50 40 10 10
MCPHERSON 88 68 90 65 / 50 40 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 87 70 89 69 / 50 50 20 10
CHANUTE 86 69 88 67 / 50 60 20 10
IOLA 86 68 88 66 / 50 60 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 87 70 89 68 / 50 60 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1225 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS ARE MODELED BY THE VARIOUS MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODELS TO
CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO SEPARATE MULTICELL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON THE EVENING. THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND HIGH CAPE IS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES. THE TOTAL
CAPES DROPS DRAMATICALLY HEADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER TERRAIN,
HOWEVER, VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD STILL SUPPORT PROLIFIC THUNDERSTORMS GUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH THE EVENING FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT
BECOME SUSTAINED INTO THE AREA. THE HRRR MODEL BASICALLY DEVELOPED 2
CLUSTERS, ALLOWING THE MAIN WIND THREAT TO BE SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE VARIOUS WRF RUNS PRODUCE
MORE OF A SINGLE LARGER CLUSTER CENTERING TOWARD HAMILTON AND
STANTON COUNTIES BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV
ANOMALY MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING. THE
LOCALIZED MESOSCALE LIFT FROM SUCH A FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
IN A MUCH WEAKENED MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ENVIRONMENT. WITH THIS
IMPULSE MOVING THOUGH THE AREA, A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 12Z IN THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, IT SHOULD BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHERN CWA, WITH A MUCH LESS CHANCE
IN THE EAST DUE TO COLD AIR SINKING IN. AN UPPER WAVE THEN DIVES
SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AS
THAT FRONT MEANDERS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS UPPER WAVE
COULD BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS
WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE AREA EAST OF WAKEENEY TO ASHLAND WILL LIKELY HAVE THE
HIGHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND THAT AREA IS WHERE SEVERE STORMS
SEEM THE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE EVEN MORE EASTWARD, EAST OF A HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE LINE. SATURDAY, MOST OF THE UPPER MOMENTUM WILL HAVE
MOVED SOUTH AND EAST, SO POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES, MAINLY IN THE SAINT JOHN TO PRATT
AREAS.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL START WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S, COOL TO THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY, AND DROP AS LOW AS THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S BY FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AS A
DOWN SLOPE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWNWARD. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AOA110. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 91 64 88 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 66 91 64 88 / 10 10 20 20
EHA 65 90 63 86 / 20 20 20 20
LBL 67 92 64 88 / 20 20 20 20
HYS 67 91 65 88 / 20 10 10 10
P28 69 91 65 87 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONGER NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AND A CUT-OFF WEAK MID LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TX. A LARGE LINEAR MCS
WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHERN KS. ALL WRF MODELS AND
THE RUC RAPID REFRESH SHOW THE BULK OF THIS MCS CONTINUING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE NE OF A SHERMAN TO COOPER
LINE. SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EXIST
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THOUGH FEEL HEATING AND
STRONG MIXING BY MIDDAY WILL LIKELY WASH THIS FEATURE OUT. FOR NOW
WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WE WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TO SEE IF ANYTHING OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OTHERWISE...AREA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY
...OR UNTIL OUR MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TX BEGINS MIGRATING
SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE ARKLATEX LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND HELP PULL THE WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN OK
BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO TUESDAY. WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS IS WHAT IS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM STALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE SREF/ECMWF/GFS MODELS TAKING IT FURTHER
SOUTH. HAVE LEANED WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION WITH AND MAINTAINED
LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OFF/ON FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. ONCE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF MID LEVEL AND FRONT
CAN BE DETERMINED WITH MORE ACCURACY...THEN POPS CAN BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THE WEAK MID LEVEL
LOW WILL MIGRATE EAST UNDERNEATH AN OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MID WEEK AND THE FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED
AS THESE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAY BE REINTRODUCED ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 96 74 97 76 93 / 5 0 5 10 30
WACO, TX 94 73 94 75 94 / 5 0 0 0 20
PARIS, TX 92 70 93 74 90 / 20 0 10 20 20
DENTON, TX 96 73 96 73 93 / 10 0 10 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 94 73 94 72 91 / 10 0 10 20 30
DALLAS, TX 95 75 96 76 92 / 5 0 5 10 30
TERRELL, TX 93 72 95 75 92 / 5 0 5 10 30
CORSICANA, TX 93 73 94 75 92 / 5 0 5 5 30
TEMPLE, TX 93 72 95 75 93 / 5 0 0 0 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 97 71 98 72 92 / 5 0 5 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1158 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.AVIATION...
SOUTH END OF TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH
ACROSS KCDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WORTH RETAINING A TEMPO
-TSRA FOR KCDS. EARLIER STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUST HAS CLEARED SOUTH
OF KLBB AND JUST PASSED KCDS AS WELL. DISRUPTED LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER TO SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT LATER
TONIGHT WITH RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR
NEW MEXICO BORDER. VERY LOW THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN LATE SUNDAY...
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR KCDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
THERE IS STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS EVENING OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT KCDS. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
CONTINUE WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES ON STORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FLOW WAS BACKING AND WEAKENING A BIT /AS SEEN
IN THE TUCUMCARI PROFILER DATA/ AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS SHIFTING
FROM THE EASTERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AN EJECTING
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL CO INTO NORTHEAST NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO
ONE OR MORE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AS IT TRANSLATES
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND PERHAPS OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE WAS ALSO
ENHANCING THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM...AND
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION COULD MATERIALIZE WITHIN THE SFC TROUGH HERE
TOO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LAST PLACE OF CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ALONG A RETREATING BOUNDARY NOTED ON
RADAR LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. UP TO
THIS POINT CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY TAME.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE 18Z RAP AND 16Z HRRR DO INDICATE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HR IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. 19Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC BASED
CAPES OF 800-2400 J/KG WITH DIMINISHING CIN. GIVEN T/TD SPREADS
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...STRONG DOWN-BURST WINDS
WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER CORES ALOFT AND THE INSTABILITY
COULD ALSO SUPPORT THE OCCURRENCE OF LARGE HAIL. ALL SAID...HAVE
DRAWN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE N/NW/W ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ COULD KEEP
SOME ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FAVORING THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. SOUTHERLY BREEZES...DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS AND SOME
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
HEIGHTS WILL BE EVEN HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THIS FLOW REGIME WILL CAUSE THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST...STRONG HEATING/MIXING COUPLED WITH
THE DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER
WEAK /AOB 20 KTS/...SO STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE TOUGH TO COME
BY...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPLY MIXED BL COULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WITH HIGHS NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TO POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUILDING ON YESTERDAYS TURNABOUT WITH RESPECT
TO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. 12Z RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH A NARROW BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BACK
INTO THE NRN ZONES MONDAY THEN SLIP FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY. BACKING
FLOW TO SE THEN EVENTUALLY EAST SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE DRYLINE FROM MIXING TOO
FAR TO THE EAST. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE
RIDGE LEADING TO PROGGED PWAT BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES MONDAY WITH
EASTERN AREAS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WHEN CONSIDERING RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE
RIDGE STORM ORGANIZATION NOT TOO LIKELY THUS PRECIP COULD END UP
BEING SCATTERED...BUT HIGHER PWATS SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIP
MENTION FOR MONDAY FAVORING NRN ZONES CLOSEST TO EXPECTED BOUNDARY
POSITION AND INSERT PRECIP MENTION INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK TO POTENTIALLY END PRECIP CHANCES. WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW AND POTENTIALLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER COOLER
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...
ALTHOUGH GIVEN PROGGED THICKNESSES IT APPEARS MOS GUIDANCE MAY BE
A TOUCH COOL AND WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARD WARMER END OF
ENSEMBLE NUMBERS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 98 62 93 62 / 40 10 10 20 30
TULIA 66 98 65 92 65 / 40 20 20 20 30
PLAINVIEW 68 97 66 93 65 / 30 20 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 66 99 67 96 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 70 100 69 96 67 / 20 20 20 20 20
DENVER CITY 67 99 67 96 63 / 20 20 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 67 100 67 96 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 69 101 70 96 68 / 30 20 20 10 30
SPUR 69 101 69 97 68 / 20 20 20 10 20
ASPERMONT 70 100 71 98 70 / 20 10 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
339 AM MDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS PROG THESE TO DIP INTO
THE 30S AND 40S AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
NAM OUTPUT PROGS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE OVR SW IDAHO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM IS MORE MOIST IN THE LLVLS COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS
AND THUS IS MORE GENEROUS FOR PROGD QPF AMOUNTS. HEIGHTS AND MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD...WHICH MAY HELP INHIBIT CONVECTION AT LEAST
INITIALLY. PROGD MLCAPES CLIMB INTO THE 600-1000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFTED INDICIES DROP TO AROUND -2 OR -3C. SO HAVE
INTRODUCED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE HIER TERRAIN INITIALLY AND OUT ON TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE WILL LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR MONDAY...AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND VERY NEAR TO THE FRONT
RANGE AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROF DEEPENS. SFC LOW WILL FORM AND
STRENGTHEN OVER IDAHO BY AFTERNOON INDUCING STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS WILL BE EFFECTIVE IN ADVECTING SFC
MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD. MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR ON MONDAY WILL BE THE
VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. H7 PROGD TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
NEAR 16 OR 17C BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THE 06Z NAM KEEPS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS CAPPED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INITIATES CONVECTION
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
THE WARMING MID-LEVELS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP
ON MONDAY WILL WANE BY LATE EVENING.
UPPER TROUGH INCHES CLOSER AS THE UPSTREAM TROF BEGINS TO SWING
NORTHEAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
CONSISTENT IN STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
NORTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SHEAR VALUES LOOK BETTER ON
TUESDAY AS WELL...SO EXPECT BETTER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
LARGE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT
PCPN CHCS ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES INTO
MONTANA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG SFC LOW AS COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO EASTERN WYOMING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST INTO NEBR PANHANDLE WITH WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW FARTHER WEST. AS MAIN ENERGY EJECTS NORTH...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL IN WRN NEBR PANHANDLE BY 00Z THU
WITH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EAST OF CYS. ON THU THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE AND JET MAX SHIFT INTO WESTERN WY WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPING IN NE WY. THIS SHOULD FOCUS MAIN PCPN FARTHER NORTH SO
HAVE KEPT THAT TREND WITH POPS. BRIEF BREAK ON FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS NEXT LARGE TROUGH AND FRONT DROPS INTO PAC
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE POSITIVE TILTED WITH GFS FASTER AND
MORE SPLIT THAN SLOWER ECMWF. HAVE KEPT TREND OF KEEPING PCPN LOW
ON SAT AND SUN WITH UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING. TEMPS LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE WARMED WESTERN ZONES ON
FRI AND SAT WITH 700MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 12-15C.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY WINDS CREATE DOWNSLOPING
CONDITIONS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST HRRR FORECAST IS HINTING
AT SOME VERY PATCHY IFR NEAR ALLIANCE TOWARDS 11Z THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS HAPPENING. NIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MAYBE OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE. AS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...IT LOOKS LIKE WARMING OF MID
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE DISTRICT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
DISTRICT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER CARBON COUNTY WHERE THIS MOISTURE WILL
HAVE MORE OF A DIFFICULT TIMING MAKING IT TO. WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY HOWEVER AND WHEN COMBINED WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OVER CARBON COUNTY WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS APPROACHING CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
LONG TERM...SLA
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1019 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY WINDS CREATE DOWNSLOPING
CONDITIONS OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST HRRR FORECAST IS HINTING
AT SOME VERY PATCHY IFR NEAR ALLIANCE TOWARDS 11Z THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS HAPPENING. NIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MAYBE OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE. AS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...IT LOOKS LIKE WARMING OF MID
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
UPDATE...THIRD GRIDDED FORECAST UPDATE COMPLETED TO REMOVE MENTION
OF SHOWERS TONIGHT PER THE WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS. ALSO
ADJUSTED DEWPOINT...WINDS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
BASED ON TRENDS AND THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT. RUBIN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAD
SHIFTED EAST TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...A RATHER
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EAST BENEATH THE
RIDGE WAS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
ROCKIES. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE BECOME BUSY SINCE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN WYOMING
AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL COLORADO. SOME OF THE STRONGER TSTORMS HAVE
PRODUCED SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN
BEGIN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA.
THE 12Z SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER THIS EVENING/S CONVECTION WANES...SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE SREF AND NAM BOTH DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD WITH ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE DEW
POINTS RISE INTO THE 50S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SBCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM BUFKIT 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
RANGE FROM 20-30 WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL TSTORM MODE. TSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DO INCREASE FROM .50 TO AROUND 1 INCH EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE MONDAY...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WITH THE STRONGER TSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE WARM
ONCE AGAIN WITH 80S TO AROUND 90. THE TSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SLOW TO EXIT EAST OF THE CWFA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING PACIFIC NW UPPER LOW
SLOWLY NE AND NORTH IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD
WITH UPPER TROF AXIS HOLDING GENERALLY JUST WEST OF THE NRN AND
CENTRAL ROCKYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE CWA IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
IMPULSES RIDING OVER THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER TROF AXIS
FINALLY PASSES ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH
WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. NO COOLING AS DOWNSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NEGATE COOLING...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND HIGHER ALONG
AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES TO THE WEST.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN CARBON COUNTY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
930 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO NEW YORK TODAY...AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY. IT
WILL LINGER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE REGION WILL
ENDURE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING FOG FROM FORECAST...FOG HAS BURNED OFF.
THE STRATUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY BURNING OFF. FORECAST ON
TRACK AS UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA
AND TRENDS.
AT 630 AM...AREAS OF FOG MAINLY IN DEEP VLYS DIMINISHING ATTM. TMPS
SVRL DEGREES ABV GRIDS...AND WERE ADJUSTED AND BLENDED W/NEW
GUIDANCE. OTRW 500HPA LOW IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SE S OF OTTAWA VLY.
COMBINATION OF ITS COLD CORE AND LK EFFECT RESPONSE PRODUCING
-SHRA OVER WNY...AND ISOLD TSTMS OFF LK ERIE WHICH HAS SFC WATER
TMPS IN UPPER 50S.
AFTER MRNG CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF...THEY WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD
OF SELF DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
500HPA CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING ATMOS WILL TURN CONVECTIVELY
UNSTABLE WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA...AND PSBLE TSTMS AFT 15UTC.
H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
WAS TRACKING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...AN INCREASE IN THE AC DECK WITH EVEN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND AREA
METARS ACROSS THE CWFA SHOW AMPLE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS.
HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE EXPANDING AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS/FOG FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...PORTIONS OF THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS STRATUS
DECK MAY EXPAND A BIT INTO THE CLEAR SKIES REGION AS THOSE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NARROW EVEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OCCURS...MAY CONSIDER
AN SPS FOR THOSE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AREAS.
OTHERWISE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION EXTENDING FROM THE TUG HILL...CAPITAL DISTRICT...BERKS AND
OUT TOWARD CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL JET AXIS...CENTERED AROUND
500MB...WITH MAGNITUDES >=50KTS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WAS TRACKING EASTWARD WHERE THE -20C AIR
RESIDES. LATEST RAP AND NCEP MODEL SUITE ALL SUGGEST THESE FEATURES
WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AS LEFT EXIT REGION BECOMES IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TOWARD 18Z. MEANWHILE....DIURNAL HEATING OF THE JUNE HIGH
SUN ANGLE WILL ASSIST WITH THE SURFACE PARCELS BECOMING BUOYANT WITH
PROGGED SBCAPES IN THE MID-UPPER 100S J/KG. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 8000 FEET COULD PRODUCE
SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WE WILL INCLUDE
THIS IN THE HWO AND GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITIES FROM SEVERAL MESOSCALE RESOURCES ALL
SUGGEST A ROBUST SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...THOSE REFLECTIVITIES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF COOL AND MOIST
AIR IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. OMEGA FIELDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
AND WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH POPS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ALONG WITH THE TRENDS SEEN IN THE LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. RANGE GENERALLY
LOWER 70S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TONIGHT`S LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN MID 40S AND LOWER 50S
CWA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW THAT IS
ANCHORED OVER THE IMMEDIATE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY THE CUTOFF
INTERACTS WITH COASTAL LOW OFF NOVA SCOTIA AND THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT ALLOWS THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ISENTROPIC LIFT LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL INTO THE N ATLC...AND
THE COLD CONVEYOR INFLOW BREAKS DOWN.
THIS LEAVES THE RGN ON THE WEST SIDE OF 500HPA CUT OFF FOR DAYS.
PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED BY THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF...THE DIURNAL CYCLE INSTABILITY AS 500HPA TEMPS REMAIN
-18C TO -20C...AND AN EVOLVING 1000 MILE PLUS BUT WEAKENING
EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE COOL NORTH ATLC. THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN THE MDL SUITE IS THE DIURNAL CYCLE...SO WILL WILL UP POPS IN
AFTNS.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE CUTOFF CASES...THE MDLS OVER DO THE
CLOUDS AND PCPN...AND HAVE A TENDENCY TO SEEM LIKE ITS GOING TO RAIN
FOR DAYS. WILL TRY TO MINIMIZE THIS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WITH VRBL
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS AM...CHC POPS PM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO
TO WELL BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500HPA CUT OFF CENTER FINALLY IS EJECTED INTO THE N ATLC.
HWVR THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS UNDER A LARGE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT (-20C) THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH
PASSES THROUGH REGION IN THE WAY OF FRONTS...IN THE PSEUDO
BAROTROPIC REGIME WE ARE IN. WITH A LITTLE IMAGINATION ONE MIGHT
FIND A 500HPA SHORT WV IN THIS FLOW. BUT THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL
BE THE DRIVER OF CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA INTO FRI. MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AT THE PEAK OF DIURNAL CYCLE...LESS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING.
THE SIGNAL OF THE END OF OUR COOL 500HPA CUTOFF DOMINATED PATTERN
HAS BEEN IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SVRL RUNS. THIS IS THE BUILDING OF A
VERY LARGE 500HPA RIDGE INTO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL
BE ACCOMP BY A VERY NOTICEABLE WARM UP. THE FIRST PART OF THAT WILL
COME SAT AS A WMFNT AND WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND SCT -TSTMS/-SHRA SPILL
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG HAS BURNED OFF WITH THE STRATUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY BURNING OFF.
MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER AT KGFL. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW ARE
MOVING INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC HAS BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. THE
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL
ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
LOWER CIGS AND THE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM TO THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...SEEMS
THE MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE FROM CIGS.
THEN FURTHER RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS A SHIELD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS IN THE SOLID MVFR WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA. CHC LATE NIGHT IFR WITH FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WITHIN BANK RISES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER
STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO NEW YORK TODAY...AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY. IT
WILL LINGER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE REGION WILL
ENDURE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 630 AM...AREAS OF FOG MAINLY IN DEEP VLYS DIMINISHING ATTM. TMPS
SVRL DEGREES ABV GRIDS...AND WERE ADJUSTED AND BLENDED W/NEW
GUIDANCE. OTRW 500HPA LOW IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SE S OF OTTAWA VLY.
COMBINATION OF ITS COLD CORE AND LK EFFECT RESPONSE PRODUCING
-SHRA OVER WNY...AND ISOLD TSTMS OFF LK ERIE WHICH HAS SFC WATER
TMPS IN UPPER 50S.
AFTR MRNG CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF...THEY WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD
OF SELF DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
500HPA CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING ATMOS WILL TURN CONVECTIVELY
UNSTABLE WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA...AND PSBLE TSTMS AFT 15UTC.
H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
WAS TRACKING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...AN INCREASE IN THE AC DECK WITH EVEN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND AREA
METARS ACROSS THE CWFA SHOW AMPLE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS.
HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE EXPANDING AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS/FOG FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...PORTIONS OF THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS STRATUS
DECK MAY EXPAND A BIT INTO THE CLEAR SKIES REGION AS THOSE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NARROW EVEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OCCURS...MAY CONSIDER
AN SPS FOR THOSE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AREAS.
OTHERWISE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION EXTENDING FROM THE TUG HILL...CAPITAL DISTRICT...BERKS AND
OUT TOWARD CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL JET AXIS...CENTERED AROUND
500MB...WITH MAGNITUDES >=50KTS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WAS TRACKING EASTWARD WHERE THE -20C AIR
RESIDES. LATEST RAP AND NCEP MODEL SUITE ALL SUGGEST THESE FEATURES
WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AS LEFT EXIT REGION BECOMES IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TOWARD 18Z. MEANWHILE....DIURNAL HEATING OF THE JUNE HIGH
SUN ANGLE WILL ASSIST WITH THE SURFACE PARCELS BECOMING BUOYANT WITH
PROGGED SBCAPES IN THE MID-UPPER 100S J/KG. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 8000 FEET COULD PRODUCE
SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WE WILL INCLUDE
THIS IN THE HWO AND GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITIES FROM SEVERAL MESOSCALE RESOURCES ALL
SUGGEST A ROBUST SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...THOSE REFLECTIVITIES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF COOL AND MOIST
AIR IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. OMEGA FIELDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
AND WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH POPS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ALONG WITH THE TRENDS SEEN IN THE LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. RANGE GENERALLY
LOWER 70S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TONIGHT`S LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN MID 40S AND LOWER 50S
CWA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW THAT IS
ANCHORED OVER THE IMMEDIATE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY THE CUTOFF
INTERACTS WITH COASTAL LOW OFF NOVA SCOTIA AND THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT ALLOWS THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ISENTROPIC LIFT LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL INTO THE N ATLC...AND
THE COLD CONVEYOR INFLOW BREAKS DOWN.
THIS LEAVES THE RGN ON THE WEST SIDE OF 500HPA CUT OFF FOR DAYS.
PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED BY THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF...THE DIURNAL CYCLE INSTABILITY AS 500HPA TEMPS REMAIN
-18C TO -20C...AND AN EVOLVING 1000 MILE PLUS BUT WEAKENING
EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE COOL NORTH ATLC. THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN THE MDL SUITE IS THE DIURNAL CYCLE...SO WILL WILL UP POPS IN
AFTNS.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE CUTOFF CASES...THE MDLS OVER DO THE
CLOUDS AND PCPN...AND HAVE A TENDENCY TO SEEM LIKE ITS GOING TO RAIN
FOR DAYS. WILL TRY TO MINIMIZE THIS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WITH VRBL
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS AM...CHC POPS PM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO
TO WELL BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500HPA CUT OFF CENTER FINALLY IS EJECTED INTO THE N ATLC.
HWVR THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS UNDER A LARGE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT (-20C) THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH
PASSES THROUGH REGION IN THE WAY OF FRONTS...IN THE PSEUDO
BAROTROPIC REGIME WE ARE IN. WITH A LITTLE IMAGINATION ONE MIGHT
FIND A 500HPA SHORT WV IN THIS FLOW. BUT THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL
BE THE DRIVER OF CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA INTO FRI. MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AT THE PEAK OF DIURNAL CYCLE...LESS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING.
THE SIGNAL OF THE END OF OUR COOL 500HPA CUTOFF DOMINATED PATTERN
HAS BEEN IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SVRL RUNS. THIS IS THE BUILDING OF A
VERY LARGE 500HPA RIDGE INTO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL
BE ACCOMP BY A VERY NOTICEABLE WARM UP. THE FIRST PART OF THAT WILL
COME SAT AS A WMFNT AND WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND SCT -TSTMS/-SHRA SPILL
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDE VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY REGION AND LIFR FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. NOW THAT
SUNRISE HAS OCCURRED...THIS SHOULD HELP WITH LIFTING THE LIFR
CONDITIONS TO IFR THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING. AS WINDS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...THOSE CIGS AND VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
HAS BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SHORT
WAVE. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT LOWER CIGS AND THE HIGH PROBABILITIES
OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...SEEMS THE MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD
BE FROM CIGS.
THEN FURTHER RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS A SHIELD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS IN THE SOLID MVFR WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA. CHC LATE NIGHT IFR WITH FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WITHIN BANK RISES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER
STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SPRING 2012 (MARCH...APRIL...MAY) WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST ON RECORD
FOR ALBANY NY WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 52.3 DEGREES (5.3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
TOP 10 WARMEST SPRINGS FOR ALBANY NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1820
1) 52.5 DEGREES 1859
2) 52.3 DEGREES 1871
1921
2012
5) 51.9 DEGREES 1831
6) 51.3 DEGREES 1903
7) 51.1 DEGREES 1846
8) 50.7 DEGREES 1830
9) 50.6 DEGREES 1991
10) 50.4 DEGREES 1826
MARCH 2012 WAS THE WARMEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
45.9 DEGREES (10.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
APRIL 2012 WAS NEAR NORMAL WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 48.1
DEGREES (0.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
MAY 2012 MISSED MAKING THE TOP 10 WARMEST BY 0.7 DEGREES WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 63.1 DEGREES (4.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
SPRING 2012 (MARCH...APRIL...MAY) AVERAGE TEMPERATURES:
GLENS FALLS NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
49.2 DEGREES (5.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WARMEST ON RECORD
POUGHKEEPSIE NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
54.2 DEGREES (6.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WARMEST ON RECORD
BENNINGTON VT: 49.9 DEGREES (5.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
PITTSFIELD MA: 49.4 DEGREES (5.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
FOR MORE GO TO OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/LOCAL_DATA.PHP?WFO=ALY
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
628 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO NEW YORK TODAY...AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY. IT
WILL LINGER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE REGION WILL
ENDURE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 630 AM...AREAS OF FOG MAINLY IN DEEP VLYS DIMINISHING ATTM. TMPS
SVRL DEGREES ABV GRIDS...AND WERE ADJUSTED AND BLENDED W/NEW
GUIDANCE. OTRW 500HPA LOW IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SE S OF OTTAWA VLY.
COMBINATION OF ITS COLD CORE AND LK EFFECT RESPONSE PRODUCING
-SHRA OVER WNY...AND ISOLD TSTMS OFF LK ERIE WHICH HAS SFC WATER
TMPS IN UPPER 50S.
AFTR MRNG CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF...THEY WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD
OF SELF DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
500HPA CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING ATMOS WILL TURN CONVECTIVELY
UNSTABLE WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA...AND PSBLE TSTMS AFT 15UTC.
H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
WAS TRACKING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...AN INCREASE IN THE AC DECK WITH EVEN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND AREA
METARS ACROSS THE CWFA SHOW AMPLE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS.
HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE EXPANDING AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS/FOG FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...PORTIONS OF THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS STRATUS
DECK MAY EXPAND A BIT INTO THE CLEAR SKIES REGION AS THOSE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NARROW EVEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OCCURS...MAY CONSIDER
AN SPS FOR THOSE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AREAS.
OTHERWISE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION EXTENDING FROM THE TUG HILL...CAPITAL DISTRICT...BERKS AND
OUT TOWARD CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL JET AXIS...CENTERED AROUND
500MB...WITH MAGNITUDES >=50KTS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WAS TRACKING EASTWARD WHERE THE -20C AIR
RESIDES. LATEST RAP AND NCEP MODEL SUITE ALL SUGGEST THESE FEATURES
WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AS LEFT EXIT REGION BECOMES IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TOWARD 18Z. MEANWHILE....DIURNAL HEATING OF THE JUNE HIGH
SUN ANGLE WILL ASSIST WITH THE SURFACE PARCELS BECOMING BUOYANT WITH
PROGGED SBCAPES IN THE MID-UPPER 100S J/KG. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 8000 FEET COULD PRODUCE
SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WE WILL INCLUDE
THIS IN THE HWO AND GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITIES FROM SEVERAL MESOSCALE RESOURCES ALL
SUGGEST A ROBUST SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...THOSE REFLECTIVITIES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF COOL AND MOIST
AIR IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. OMEGA FIELDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
AND WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH POPS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ALONG WITH THE TRENDS SEEN IN THE LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. RANGE GENERALLY
LOWER 70S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TONIGHT`S LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN MID 40S AND LOWER 50S
CWA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW THAT IS
ANCHORED OVER THE IMMEDIATE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY THE CUTOFF
INTERACTS WITH COASTAL LOW OFF NOVA SCOTIA AND THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT ALLOWS THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ISENTROPIC LIFT LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL INTO THE N ATLC...AND
THE COLD CONVEYOR INFLOW BREAKS DOWN.
THIS LEAVES THE RGN ON THE WEST SIDE OF 500HPA CUT OFF FOR DAYS.
PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED BY THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF...THE DIURNAL CYCLE INSTABILITY AS 500HPA TEMPS REMAIN
-18C TO -20C...AND AN EVOLVING 1000 MILE PLUS BUT WEAKENING
EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE COOL NORTH ATLC. THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN THE MDL SUITE IS THE DIURNAL CYCLE...SO WILL WILL UP POPS IN
AFTNS.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE CUTOFF CASES...THE MDLS OVER DO THE CLOUDS
AND PCPN...AND HAVE A TENDENCY TO SEEM LIKE ITS GOING TO RAIN FOR
DAYS. WILL TRY TO MINIMIZE THIS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WITH VRBL
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS AM...CHC POPS PM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BLO TO WELL BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500HPA CUT OFF CENTER FINALLY IS EJECTED INTO THE N ATLC.
HWVR THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS UNDER A LARGE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT (-20C) THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH
PASSES THROUGH REGION IN THE WAY OF FRONTS...IN THE PSEUDO
BAROTROPIC REGIME WE ARE IN. WITH A LITTLE IMAGINATION ONE MIGHT
FIND A 500HPA SHORT WV IN THIS FLOW. BUT THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL
BE THE DRIVER OF CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA INTO FRI. MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AT THE PEAK OF DIURNAL CYCLE...LESS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING.
THE SIGNAL OF THE END OF OUR COOL 500HPA CUTOFF DOMINATED PATTERN
HAS BEEN IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SVRL RUNS. THIS IS THE BUILDING OF
A VERY LARGE 500HPA RIDGE INTO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL
BE ACCOMP BY A VERY NOTICEABLE WARM UP. THE FIRST PART OF THAT WILL COME
SAT AS A WMFNT AND WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND SCT -TSTMS/-SHRA SPILL
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHALLENGING TAF FORECASTS OVERNIGHT AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHILE SOME SOME LOWER STRATUS ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. SO WE WILL ATTEMPT TO
COVER THE LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORY THRESHOLDS IN A TEMPO GROUP AND
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...UPSTREAM THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WE WILL
PLACE A VCSH AND KEEP CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS.
LOWER CIGS AND PERHAPS VIS WILL REAPPEAR SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME
WESTERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NT-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA. CHC LATE NIGHT IFR WITH
FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WITHIN BANK RISES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER
STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SPRING 2012 (MARCH...APRIL...MAY) WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST ON RECORD
FOR ALBANY NY WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 52.3 DEGREES (5.3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
TOP 10 WARMEST SPRINGS FOR ALBANY NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1820
1) 52.5 DEGREES 1859
2) 52.3 DEGREES 1871
1921
2012
5) 51.9 DEGREES 1831
6) 51.3 DEGREES 1903
7) 51.1 DEGREES 1846
8) 50.7 DEGREES 1830
9) 50.6 DEGREES 1991
10) 50.4 DEGREES 1826
MARCH 2012 WAS THE WARMEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
45.9 DEGREES (10.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
APRIL 2012 WAS NEAR NORMAL WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 48.1
DEGREES (0.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
MAY 2012 MISSED MAKING THE TOP 10 WARMEST BY 0.7 DEGREES WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 63.1 DEGREES (4.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
SPRING 2012 (MARCH...APRIL...MAY) AVERAGE TEMPERATURES:
GLENS FALLS NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
49.2 DEGREES (5.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WARMEST ON RECORD
POUGHKEEPSIE NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
54.2 DEGREES (6.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WARMEST ON RECORD
BENNINGTON VT: 49.9 DEGREES (5.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
PITTSFIELD MA: 49.4 DEGREES (5.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
FOR MORE GO TO OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/LOCAL_DATA.PHP?WFO=ALY
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
951 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.UPDATE...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AS OF 13Z. 12Z MFL SOUNDING CAME IN DRY ALOFT WITH A PWAT
VALUE OF 1.18 INCHES WITH HIGHER VALUES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
WITH NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND BETTER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SHOULD SPARK A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST HRRR AS WELL AS SREF ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES DO DEPICT SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. UPDATED TO INCLUDE THUNDER
ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD PUSH INLAND AROUND 18Z
WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL ALSO PUSH INLAND AROUND 10 KNOTS. WITH SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE TAF SITES
TODAY. A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AND
THEN A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW MAY OCCUR FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MAINTAINED SOME OF
ITS INTEGRITY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT
WILL SOON DISINTEGRATE AS IT EASES SOUTHEAST. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY, ESPECIALLY AS A LINGERING TROUGH HAS FINALLY PUSHED
EAST AND A BUILDING DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS ADVANCING INTO THE
REGION. LIFT WILL REMAIN RATHER INSIGNIFICANT TODAY WITH NO
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A
GRADUAL AND MODEST INCREASE IN COLUMNAR MOISTURE, BUT MAINLY
AFTER 21Z. SO WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER,
ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 90 TO THE MID 90S IN A FEW INTERIOR
LOCALES.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR
CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS, THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY STAY CLOSER TO COAST
AND NOT FULLY DEVELOP UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE
INLAND, IT MAY INDUCE ENOUGH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BUT, OVERALL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW AND SHOULD WORK
TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL AGAIN WARM
NICELY, PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, INCLUDING THE EAST COAST METRO.
THE RIDGE WILL ERODE ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, RESULTING IN THE
TRANSPORT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL
ESSENTIALLY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO OUR
WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BETTER FORCING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT FARTHER
NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NEVERTHELESS, THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND OVERALL PATTERN, INCLUDING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. UNDER THESE REGIMES, THE RISK FOR STRONG STORMS IS
TYPICALLY ENHANCED. AS THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLUGGISHLY
MOVES SOUTH AND APPROACHES THE AREA, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. A WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KAPF. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WELL TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION, WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK TODAY UNDER
THE RESULTING WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST. SEAS GENERALLY 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MID WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 73 91 75 / - - 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 76 91 78 / 10 - 20 20
MIAMI 91 76 92 77 / 20 - 20 20
NAPLES 89 74 89 75 / - - 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
644 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WILL MAINTAIN A THUNDER MENTION AT CNU EARLY THIS MORNING AS
CURRENT MCS FROM EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KS WHERE 850 INFLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FOCUSED. WILL CARRY VCTS MENTION AT MOST SITES EXCEPT RSL. IT`S
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT CNU...ICT AND HUT MAY NEED A TEMPO TS AT SOME
POINT AND WILL REFINE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THIS MORNING`S MCS.
SYNOPSIS:
A MCS HAS DEVELOPED FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING.
TODAY - TONIGHT:
THE MCS THAT IS ONGOING THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS. THE HRRR AND GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A RELATIVELY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WHILE THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION. THE MAIN QUESTION AFTER THIS
CONVECTION EXITS TO THE EAST IS WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
SET UP. THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION
CHANCES AND DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE THE STRUGGLES THE 00Z NAM IS HAVING WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...FEEL THAT THE LATER EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 00Z/GFS AND 00Z/EC SUPPORT THE
00Z/NAM DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PUSHING EAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRIME A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE GFS/NAM INDICATING UPWARDS OF
3000-4000 J/KG CAPE BY 21Z WITH 40+KTS SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
COORDINATES WITH WHAT SPC IS THINKING AS OF THEIR 04Z UPDATE. AS
STATED...PIN POINTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT WITH IT DEPENDING ON HOW BOUNDARIES WILL EVOLVE AFTER THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION. BUT IF THERE ARE SOME BOUNDARIES AROUND...LOW
LEVEL HELICITY COULD BE ENHANCED AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI WITH CONVECTION LEAVING THE STATE BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY - SATURDAY:
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...KEEPING KANSAS
UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. A
DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DISLODGE A
POTENT CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE...THE
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH THE OUTWARD EDGES OF THIS SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARER TO NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK-WEEK AFTER AN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRY TO MOVE UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE WORK-WEEK AND THEY COULD SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. HAVE
MAINLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
BILLINGS
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND AFFECT A COUPLE TAF SITES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 89 69 90 67 / 50 50 10 10
HUTCHINSON 89 68 90 66 / 50 40 10 10
NEWTON 87 68 89 66 / 50 50 10 10
ELDORADO 86 68 89 66 / 50 60 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 89 70 90 68 / 50 60 20 10
RUSSELL 90 68 90 64 / 20 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 91 67 90 65 / 30 20 10 10
SALINA 89 69 90 65 / 50 40 10 10
MCPHERSON 88 68 90 65 / 50 40 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 87 70 89 69 / 50 50 20 10
CHANUTE 86 69 88 67 / 50 60 20 10
IOLA 86 68 88 66 / 50 60 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 87 70 89 68 / 50 60 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1028 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...NEARING LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE COMBINATION OF
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY VALUES BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG...AND REACHING CONVECTIVE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...WHICH COULD RESULT IN GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOW
FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO REACH 40-50 KTS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
ADDED BOTH THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MENTION TO AREAS WITH
HIGHER POPS. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE REGION IN A `SEE TEXT`
MENTION FOR TODAY/S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HAVE ALSO SEEN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LINE OF SHOWERS WITH 00Z HIGH-RES NCEP
NMM/ARW ALONG WITH 00Z NSSL ARW AND 00Z NAM NEST...SO HAVE TRIED
TO TIME THIS LINE OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HAVE BROUGHT ALL POPS
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST...WHICH FOLLOWS THE
EXPECTED SKY COVER GRADIENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL HAVE SOLID AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SHOULD SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT UNLIKE TODAY...SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE WILL ALLOW FOR LESS INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE NO
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DISAGREEMENT FOR
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...SO HAVE GONE WITH MORE GENERIC CHANCE POPS.
THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD...SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO
HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER FLOW BLOCK IS NAEFS/ECMWF-FORECAST TO MAINTAIN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ANTICIPATED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
FORECAST IS MINIMAL AS SHORTWAVES IN FLOW WILL DEFINE MOISTURE
SUPPLY AND BOUNDARY POSITIONING.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE...TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED
UNDER COOLER MID LEVELS.
EARLY RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN FILLING...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE UNINTERRUPTED SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING, ALBEIT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS
WILL HAVE DEVELOPED BY 15Z. RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN AFFECT KFKL AND PERHAPS
KDUJ THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THIS SHOWER BAND IS PART OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWED
ROTATING AROUND A COLD LOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE.
BLEND OF WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOW ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. USED
THESE SOLUTIONS TO HELP FRAME TIMING OF TEMPO MVFR SHOWERS FOR
VARIOUS TAF SITES. NAM MODEL PROFILES AND SPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS, WHICH SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SUPPORTS. HOWEVER, DO NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN TAFS.
DID MENTION THAT SURFACE WINDS, SOUTHWEST BECOMING WEST IN
DIRECTION, CAN GENERALLY GUST TO 25-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON.
BY 02Z, NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW STABILITY RESTORED, WITH LESS WIND
AND LESS CLOUDS.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1015 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN OFF THE COAST MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
MONDAY AND USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY RATHER INTERESTING AS MODELS SWING
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST RUC / HRRR
INDICATED SHWRS DVLP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG THE MTS THEN TRACK
SE. MEANWHILE...DOWNSLOPING W-NW WINDS WILL TEND TO OFFSET THE
SHWR DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO DETERMINE HOW FAR
EAST ANY SHWRS ACTUALLY GET BEFORE DISSIPATING / OR BECOME VIRGA.
TSCTNS SHOW ENUF MOISTURE FOR SCT CU TO QUICKLY BECOME BKN BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINITY...DECIDED TO ADD ISOLTD
SHWRS IN GRIDS TO NWRN MOST COUNTIES AFTER 18Z. HIGHS U70S-L80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...DEPICTED WELL BY UV IMAGERY OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN THE WEATHER THIS COMING WEEK. SHORT WAVES
SPINNING AROUND THE LOW MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
IN ITS TREK TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
FOR MOST OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME WEAK PVA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPR 50S
EXCEPT LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.
ON MONDAY...A CHC OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FCST FOR THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. ADDED A SLGT CHC FOR SW PORTIONS. BOTH NAM AND GFS
SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE CAROLINAS. ALSO HAVE SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTN. IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PCPN...A DRY FORECAST IS IN
PLACE FOR THE TIDEWATER AND RICHMOND AREAS.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT MID TO UPR 70S ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S EXCEPT NEAR 60S AT THE
COAST.
A PSEUDO COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH SLGT CHC TSTMS IN THE AFTN. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE DOMINATING THE WX PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS TWO CUTOFF LOWS SIT OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...FORMING AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL STATES.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SEND PULSES
OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AT TIMES.
OVERALL...THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION IS PREFERRED SINCE IT TENDS TO
HANDLE CUTOFF LOWS WITH BETTER CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL
LARGE ENOUGH VARIATIONS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND OTHER MID/LONG RANGE
MODELS TO CONTINUE A MODEL BLENDED FORECAST. DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS...HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES ONGOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ALTHOUGH EACH 24 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH
OUT. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A BIT TRICKY...HOWEVER
MODELS ARE BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED IN SHOWING COOL TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK (HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S) WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
WEST WIND AROUND 10-15KT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT
ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PA TODAY
AND OFF THE NJ COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 6-8K FT MAINLY NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...AND THERE IS A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SBY AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RESULT IN A 10-15KT WESTERLY WIND
TODAY AND POTENTIALLY A SOLID 15KT TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CLIPS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AND
POTENTIALLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS (MAINLY OVER THE BAY
AND PERHAPS THE RIVERS DUE TO A FAVORABLE FETCH). A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING. THE WIND BECOMES N TO NNE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF 20-25KT WIND SPEEDS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND RATHER QUICKLY WITH
A SLIGHT NE COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND ARE PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
BUILD TO 5-6FT. THE COLD FRONT SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
BRINGING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-4FT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE AROUND 0.5-0.75FT ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE N MONDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME NE TUESDAY. THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE HAS TIDAL
ANOMALIES RISING TO AT LEAST 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF A SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND AND A FULL MOON. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOME LOCATIONS
TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SPRING 2012 WILL GO DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS THE WARMEST ON
RECORD FOR ALL 3 MAJOR CLIMATE SITES. AVG TEMPERATURE DATA FOR
SPRING (MAR-MAY) 2012 IS LISTED BELOW...
RICHMOND....62.4 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 61.4 F IN 2010)
NORFOLK.....63.4 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 62.7 F IN 1945)
SALISBURY...59.8 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 59.7 F IN 1945)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
810 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH. UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF LAKE HURON
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...NEARING LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY
VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG...AND REACHING CONVECTIVE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...WHICH COULD RESULT IN GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOW
FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO REACH 40-50 KTS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
ADDED BOTH THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MENTION TO AREAS WITH
HIGHER POPS. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE REGION IN A `SEE TEXT`
MENTION FOR TODAY/S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HAVE ALSO SEEN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LINE OF SHOWERS WITH 00Z HIGH-RES NCEP
NMM/ARW ALONG WITH 00Z NSSL ARW AND 00Z NAM NEST...SO HAVE TRIED
TO TIME THIS LINE OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HAVE BROUGHT ALL POPS
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST...WHICH FOLLOWS THE
EXPECTED SKY COVER GRADIENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL HAVE SOLID AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SHOULD SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT UNLIKE TODAY...SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE WILL ALLOW FOR LESS INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE NO
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DISAGREEMENT FOR
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...SO HAVE GONE WITH MORE GENERIC CHANCE POPS.
THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD...SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO
HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER FLOW BLOCK IS NAEFS/ECMWF-FORECAST TO MAINTAIN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ANTICIPATED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
FORECAST IS MINIMAL AS SHORTWAVES IN FLOW WILL DEFINE MOISTURE
SUPPLY AND BOUNDARY POSITIONING.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE...TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED
UNDER COOLER MID LEVELS.
EARLY RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN FILLING...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE UNINTERRUPTED SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING, ALBEIT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS
WILL HAVE DEVELOPED BY 15Z. RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN AFFECT KFKL AND PERHAPS
KDUJ THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THIS SHOWER BAND IS PART OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWED
ROTATING AROUND A COLD LOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE.
BLEND OF WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOW ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. USED
THESE SOLUTIONS TO HELP FRAME TIMING OF TEMPO MVFR SHOWERS FOR
VARIOUS TAF SITES. NAM MODEL PROFILES AND SPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS, WHICH SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SUPPORTS. HOWEVER, DO NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN TAFS.
DID MENTION THAT SURFACE WINDS, SOUTHWEST BECOMING WEST IN
DIRECTION, CAN GENERALLY GUST TO 25-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON.
BY 02Z, NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW STABILITY RESTORED, WITH LESS WIND
AND LESS CLOUDS.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
651 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF LAKE HURON
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...NEARING LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY VALUES
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG...AND REACHING CONVECTIVE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY LOW...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
ALLOW WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO REACH 40-50
KTS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE ADDED BOTH THE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MENTION TO AREAS WITH HIGHER POPS. SPC
HAS PLACED MOST OF THE REGION IN A `SEE TEXT` MENTION FOR TODAY/S
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HAVE ALSO SEEN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
PLACEMENT OF LINE OF SHOWERS WITH 00Z HIGH-RES NCEP NMM/ARW ALONG
WITH 00Z NSSL ARW AND 00Z NAM NEST...SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THIS LINE
OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH PRECIPITATION GENERALLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HAVE BROUGHT ALL POPS TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S
SOUTHWEST...WHICH FOLLOWS THE EXPECTED SKY COVER GRADIENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL HAVE SOLID AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SHOULD SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT UNLIKE TODAY...SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE WILL ALLOW FOR LESS INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE NO
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DISAGREEMENT FOR
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...SO HAVE GONE WITH MORE GENERIC CHANCE POPS.
THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD...SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO
HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER FLOW BLOCK IS NAEFS/ECMWF-FORECAST TO MAINTAIN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ANTICIPATED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
FORECAST IS MINIMAL AS SHORTWAVES IN FLOW WILL DEFINE MOISTURE
SUPPLY AND BOUNDARY POSITIONING.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE...TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED
UNDER COOLER MID LEVELS.
EARLY RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN FILLING...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE UNINTERRUPTED SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING, ALBEIT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS
WILL HAVE DEVELOPED BY 15Z. RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN AFFECT KFKL AND PERHAPS
KDUJ THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THIS SHOWER BAND IS PART OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWED
ROTATING AROUND A COLD LOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE.
BLEND OF WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOW ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. USED
THESE SOLUTIONS TO HELP FRAME TIMING OF TEMPO MVFR SHOWERS FOR
VARIOUS TAF SITES. NAM MODEL PROFILES AND SPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS, WHICH SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SUPPORTS. HOWEVER, DO NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN TAFS.
DID MENTION THAT SURFACE WINDS, SOUTHWEST BECOMING WEST IN
DIRECTION, CAN GENERALLY GUST TO 25-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON.
BY 02Z, NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW STABILITY RESTORED, WITH LESS WIND
AND LESS CLOUDS.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS RELEGATED TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST AS A RESULT. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A FEW WARM
CORE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE REMNANTS OF A ~30KT 850MB JET STREAK WAS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THIS LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE PAST FEW HOURS PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS OUR CWA
AS A RESULT.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...WAS PROMOTING WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOME OF WHICH
WAS OBSERVED OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB
JET STREAK HAS DIMINISHED THROUGH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
WITH THE LOSS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS ALSO DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR CWA. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIPITATION. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY
SKY...TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THIS
MORNING TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAF. QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AM
EXPECTING THEM TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINAL..AND KEPT ANY
MENTION OUT. BKN/OVC SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE AREA SITS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH ITS
WAY INTO THE TERMINAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE VARIABLE WINDS...BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO THE NORTH.
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A PASSING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THIS
RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECT A STRING OF NICE DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
FOR TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THEREAFTER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO DWINDLE...AS
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISM...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND DECIDED TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DESPITE HIGHLIGHT OF SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THAT SAID...HOWEVER...IF CAP IS ABLE TO BE BROKEN...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GENERAL STORY HASNT
CHANGED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE CENTRAL CONUS
REMAINS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND SHARP RIDGE AXIS...STUCK
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
AND OVER THE IDAHO/MONT AREA. LOOKING AT THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY...THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS COME IN THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH HAS TAKEN A TREND TOWARD THE GFS...SHOWING THE RIDGE
AXIS HOLDING STRONG AND SHIFTING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW UP INTO
CANADA. SO INSTEAD OF BLANKETING QPF ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
RIDGE BEING BROKEN DOWN...THEY ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST INTO
THE CWA. BECAUSE OF THIS...TRENDED BACK POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURS NIGHT...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
SLIGHT CHANCES/IF ANY POPS ELSEWHERE. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS CONTINUE
THIS TREND...POPS COULD BE LOWERED MORE...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA COULD HAVE THEM REMOVED ALTOGETHER.
MODELS KEEP A BROADER RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY..BUT DO VARY ON ITS EXACT LOCATION...AND WHETHER FURTHER
WEAKENING OCCURS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
RIDING THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH...SO KEPT THE ALLBLEND
POPS AS IS...BUT WITH BOTH GENERALLY SHOWING DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS DRY.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE
HWO. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A MODEST INSTABILITY /PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE WEST...ESP EARLY IN THE PERIOD/ AND LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO
THOUGH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT...CANT COMPLETELY RULE SEVERE WEATHER OUT EITHER.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...ESP
WED AND SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY THUR/FRI. BY
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN MILD...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
733 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.UPDATE...
GRIDS/FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THE CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE THREE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO
15Z TODAY...AND THEN NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 20Z
TODAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS THE THEME OF THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE PANHANDLES LAST
EVENING IS ONGOING AT THIS HOUR OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
MEANWHILE...A SUBTLE MID/UPPER AIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IDENTIFIED IN
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS EXIST WITHIN NWP THIS MORNING WRT TODAY/S
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS. MODELS AGREE IN
PROPAGATING THE SAID WAVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY EVENING WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD ROUGHLY THE CANADIAN RIVER. MODELS ADDITIONALLY MIX/TIGHTEN A
DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AN EFFECTIVE
TRIPLE POINT IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. WITH THIS
AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS A BIT PUZZLING WHY
SOME MODELS CONVECT WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN DRY SOLUTIONS. THE WRF-NAM
AND HRRR PRODUCE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH LESSER SIGNALS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE NAM
ADDITIONALLY GENERATES HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN THE DRY AIR TOWARD
THE WEST...WHILE THE TTU WRF AND GFS ARE LARGELY CONVECTIVE-LESS.
GIVEN CONSISTENCY OF DEPICTED FORCING MECHANISMS...WILL LEAN GRIDS
TOWARD ACTIVE SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/ POPS
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT A
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT OVER THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES...WHEREAS
DRIER AIR/WEAKER INSTABILITY MAY LEND TOWARD A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS SHOULD HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AS
A RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH
A RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE...AND EVEN A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER THE HEIGHT RIDGE ALOFT AND HELP TO PROMOTE CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE/MOS SHOW NOTABLE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITHIN THIS REGIME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THUS HAVE TRENDED GRIDDED POPS TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS UPWARDS OF
30-40 PERCENT. WEAK MID/UPPER AIR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD RESTRICT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...BUT SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND AMPLE MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARIES.
WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIRTY RIDGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS THE SUBTLE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. YET MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN MOISTURE. THUS HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY IN WAKE OF A TIGHTENING DRYLINE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES...YIELDING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 MPH /20 FT/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A LOW RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING FROM HIGH BASED CONVECTION...AS
WELL AS ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS...MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...
AND THIS SHOULD BE MONITORED. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING AN ONSET OF
RELATIVELY COOLER/MOISTER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
626 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THE CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE THREE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO
15Z TODAY...AND THEN NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 20Z
TODAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS THE THEME OF THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE PANHANDLES LAST
EVENING IS ONGOING AT THIS HOUR OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
MEANWHILE...A SUBTLE MID/UPPER AIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IDENTIFIED IN
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS EXIST WITHIN NWP THIS MORNING WRT TODAY/S
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS. MODELS AGREE IN
PROPAGATING THE SAID WAVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY EVENING WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD ROUGHLY THE CANADIAN RIVER. MODELS ADDITIONALLY MIX/TIGHTEN A
DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AN EFFECTIVE
TRIPLE POINT IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. WITH THIS
AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS A BIT PUZZLING WHY
SOME MODELS CONVECT WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN DRY SOLUTIONS. THE WRF-NAM
AND HRRR PRODUCE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH LESSER SIGNALS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE NAM
ADDITIONALLY GENERATES HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN THE DRY AIR TOWARD
THE WEST...WHILE THE TTU WRF AND GFS ARE LARGELY CONVECTIVE-LESS.
GIVEN CONSISTENCY OF DEPICTED FORCING MECHANISMS...WILL LEAN GRIDS
TOWARD ACTIVE SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/ POPS
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT A
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT OVER THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES...WHEREAS
DRIER AIR/WEAKER INSTABILITY MAY LEND TOWARD A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS SHOULD HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AS
A RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH
A RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE...AND EVEN A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER THE HEIGHT RIDGE ALOFT AND HELP TO PROMOTE CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE/MOS SHOW NOTABLE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITHIN THIS REGIME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THUS HAVE TRENDED GRIDDED POPS TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS UPWARDS OF
30-40 PERCENT. WEAK MID/UPPER AIR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD RESTRICT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...BUT SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND AMPLE MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARIES.
WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIRTY RIDGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS THE SUBTLE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. YET MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN MOISTURE. THUS HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY IN WAKE OF A TIGHTENING DRYLINE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES...YIELDING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 MPH /20 FT/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A LOW RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING FROM HIGH BASED CONVECTION...AS
WELL AS ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS...MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...
AND THIS SHOULD BE MONITORED. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING AN ONSET OF
RELATIVELY COOLER/MOISTER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
555 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER HAVE REVEALED PATCHY AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WORKING THEIR WAY STEADILY TO THE
NORTH. NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED THAT THEY WILL REACH THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH AREA...BUT THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE POSSIBILITY
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE
FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES EARLY BEFORE A QUICK RETURN
TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. CONVECTION REMAINED NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER OVERNIGHT AND BELIEVE ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER
WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS VEER PRETTY QUICKLY TO THE WEST AT 5000 FT. WIND SPEEDS AT
THE SURFACE SHOULD BECOME SUSTAINED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY
MIDDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE WIND SPEEDS MAY REMAIN UP AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONGER NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AND A CUT-OFF WEAK MID LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TX. A LARGE LINEAR MCS
WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHERN KS. ALL WRF MODELS AND
THE RUC RAPID REFRESH SHOW THE BULK OF THIS MCS CONTINUING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE NE OF A SHERMAN TO COOPER
LINE. SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EXIST
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THOUGH FEEL HEATING AND
STRONG MIXING BY MIDDAY WILL LIKELY WASH THIS FEATURE OUT. FOR NOW
WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WE WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TO SEE IF ANYTHING OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OTHERWISE...AREA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY
...OR UNTIL OUR MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TX BEGINS MIGRATING
SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE ARKLATEX LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND HELP PULL THE WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN OK
BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO TUESDAY. WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS IS WHAT IS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM STALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE SREF/ECMWF/GFS MODELS TAKING IT FURTHER
SOUTH. HAVE LEANED WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION WITH AND MAINTAINED
LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OFF/ON FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. ONCE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF MID LEVEL AND FRONT
CAN BE DETERMINED WITH MORE ACCURACY...THEN POPS CAN BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THE WEAK MID LEVEL
LOW WILL MIGRATE EAST UNDERNEATH AN OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MID WEEK AND THE FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED
AS THESE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAY BE REINTRODUCED ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 96 74 97 76 93 / 5 0 5 10 30
WACO, TX 94 73 94 75 94 / 5 0 0 0 20
PARIS, TX 92 70 93 74 90 / 20 0 10 20 20
DENTON, TX 96 73 96 73 93 / 10 0 10 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 94 73 94 72 91 / 10 0 10 20 30
DALLAS, TX 95 75 96 76 92 / 5 0 5 10 30
TERRELL, TX 93 72 95 75 92 / 5 0 5 10 30
CORSICANA, TX 93 73 94 75 92 / 5 0 5 5 30
TEMPLE, TX 93 72 95 75 93 / 5 0 0 0 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 97 71 98 72 92 / 5 0 5 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
505 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS THE THEME OF THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE PANHANDLES LAST
EVENING IS ONGOING AT THIS HOUR OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
MEANWHILE...A SUBTLE MID/UPPER AIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IDENTIFIED IN
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS EXIST WITHIN NWP THIS MORNING WRT TODAY/S
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS. MODELS AGREE IN
PROPAGATING THE SAID WAVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY EVENING WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD ROUGHLY THE CANADIAN RIVER. MODELS ADDITIONALLY MIX/TIGHTEN A
DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AN EFFECTIVE
TRIPLE POINT IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. WITH THIS
AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS A BIT PUZZLING WHY
SOME MODELS CONVECT WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN DRY SOLUTIONS. THE WRF-NAM
AND HRRR PRODUCE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH LESSER SIGNALS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE NAM
ADDITIONALLY GENERATES HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN THE DRY AIR TOWARD
THE WEST...WHILE THE TTU WRF AND GFS ARE LARGELY CONVECTIVE-LESS.
GIVEN CONSISTENCY OF DEPICTED FORCING MECHANISMS...WILL LEAN GRIDS
TOWARD ACTIVE SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/ POPS
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT A
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT OVER THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES...WHEREAS
DRIER AIR/WEAKER INSTABILITY MAY LEND TOWARD A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS SHOULD HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AS
A RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH
A RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE...AND EVEN A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER THE HEIGHT RIDGE ALOFT AND HELP TO PROMOTE CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE/MOS SHOW NOTABLE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITHIN THIS REGIME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THUS HAVE TRENDED GRIDDED POPS TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS UPWARDS OF
30-40 PERCENT. WEAK MID/UPPER AIR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD RESTRICT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...BUT SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND AMPLE MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARIES.
WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIRTY RIDGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS THE SUBTLE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. YET MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN MOISTURE. THUS HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY IN WAKE OF A TIGHTENING DRYLINE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES...YIELDING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 MPH /20 FT/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A LOW RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING FROM HIGH BASED CONVECTION...AS
WELL AS ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS...MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...
AND THIS SHOULD BE MONITORED. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING AN ONSET OF
RELATIVELY COOLER/MOISTER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1002 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON
1002 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
CURRENTLY WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER OUT ACROSS
WESTERN MN MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH. RAP ANALYSIS/FORECAST
SHOWS RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER ALONG WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AREA OF SHRA/ISOLD T GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER AS THE PCPN
MOVES IN...BUT DYNAMIC FORCING SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THIS DRY AIR. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED SHRA/TS CHANCES GOING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
315 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY TROUGHS ALONG EACH COAST
AND RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH SYSTEMS RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE SKIRTING THE AREA. RATHER CHALLENGING TO TRY AND PINPOINT
ANY TIME FRAMES OF PRECIPITATION AND JUST USED AN ALLBLEND SOLUTION
FOR THESE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
633 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
INTO THE 4 TO 7K LEVEL BY MID AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THEY SHOW FAIRLY DECENT OMEGA...SO ADDED
VCSH TO BOTH TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT THE PROBABILITIES LOOK TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
308 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....JLR
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1250 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO NEW YORK TODAY...AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY. IT
WILL LINGER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE REGION WILL
HAVE TO ENDURE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM. SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION
(ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY) AS SURFACE HEATING AND
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. PREVIOUS FORECAST
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH LIKELY POPS FOR ALL AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON.
LIGHTNING DETECTION INDICATE ANY CONVECTION STRONG ENOUGH FOR CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IS STILL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION...BUT WOULD EXPECT LIGHTNING TO BEGIN OCCURRING OVER THE ALY
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY SO HAVE LEFT ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST.
****PREVIOUS DISCUSSION****
SOME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE 500HPA CUT
OFF...DIURNAL HEATING ATMOS WILL TURN CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE WITH
INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA...AND PSBLE TSTMS AFT 15UTC.
H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
WAS TRACKING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...AN INCREASE IN THE AC DECK WITH EVEN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND AREA
METARS ACROSS THE CWFA SHOW AMPLE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS.
HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE EXPANDING AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS/FOG FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...PORTIONS OF THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS STRATUS
DECK MAY EXPAND A BIT INTO THE CLEAR SKIES REGION AS THOSE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NARROW EVEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OCCURS...MAY CONSIDER
AN SPS FOR THOSE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AREAS.
OTHERWISE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION EXTENDING FROM THE TUG HILL...CAPITAL DISTRICT...BERKS AND
OUT TOWARD CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL JET AXIS...CENTERED AROUND
500MB...WITH MAGNITUDES >=50KTS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WAS TRACKING EASTWARD WHERE THE -20C AIR
RESIDES. LATEST RAP AND NCEP MODEL SUITE ALL SUGGEST THESE FEATURES
WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AS LEFT EXIT REGION BECOMES IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TOWARD 18Z. MEANWHILE....DIURNAL HEATING OF THE JUNE HIGH
SUN ANGLE WILL ASSIST WITH THE SURFACE PARCELS BECOMING BUOYANT WITH
PROGGED SBCAPES IN THE MID-UPPER 100S J/KG. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 8000 FEET COULD PRODUCE
SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WE WILL INCLUDE
THIS IN THE HWO AND GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITIES FROM SEVERAL MESOSCALE RESOURCES ALL
SUGGEST A ROBUST SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...THOSE REFLECTIVITIES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF COOL AND MOIST
AIR IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. OMEGA FIELDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
AND WE WILL RETAIN THE HIGH POPS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ALONG WITH THE TRENDS SEEN IN THE LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. RANGE GENERALLY
LOWER 70S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TONIGHT`S LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN MID 40S AND LOWER 50S
CWA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW THAT IS
ANCHORED OVER THE IMMEDIATE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INITIALLY THE CUTOFF
INTERACTS WITH COASTAL LOW OFF NOVA SCOTIA AND THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT ALLOWS THE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ISENTROPIC LIFT LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL INTO THE N ATLC...AND
THE COLD CONVEYOR INFLOW BREAKS DOWN.
THIS LEAVES THE RGN ON THE WEST SIDE OF 500HPA CUT OFF FOR DAYS.
PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED BY THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF...THE DIURNAL CYCLE INSTABILITY AS 500HPA TEMPS REMAIN
-18C TO -20C...AND AN EVOLVING 1000 MILE PLUS BUT WEAKENING
EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE COOL NORTH ATLC. THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN THE MDL SUITE IS THE DIURNAL CYCLE...SO WILL WILL UP POPS IN
AFTNS.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE CUTOFF CASES...THE MDLS OVER DO THE
CLOUDS AND PCPN...AND HAVE A TENDENCY TO SEEM LIKE ITS GOING TO RAIN
FOR DAYS. WILL TRY TO MINIMIZE THIS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WITH VRBL
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC POPS AM...CHC POPS PM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO
TO WELL BLO NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500HPA CUT OFF CENTER FINALLY IS EJECTED INTO THE N ATLC.
HWVR THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS UNDER A LARGE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT (-20C) THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH
PASSES THROUGH REGION IN THE WAY OF FRONTS...IN THE PSEUDO
BAROTROPIC REGIME WE ARE IN. WITH A LITTLE IMAGINATION ONE MIGHT
FIND A 500HPA SHORT WV IN THIS FLOW. BUT THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL
BE THE DRIVER OF CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA INTO FRI. MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AT THE PEAK OF DIURNAL CYCLE...LESS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING.
THE SIGNAL OF THE END OF OUR COOL 500HPA CUTOFF DOMINATED PATTERN
HAS BEEN IN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SVRL RUNS. THIS IS THE BUILDING OF A
VERY LARGE 500HPA RIDGE INTO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL
BE ACCOMP BY A VERY NOTICEABLE WARM UP. THE FIRST PART OF THAT WILL
COME SAT AS A WMFNT AND WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND SCT -TSTMS/-SHRA SPILL
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG HAS BURNED OFF WITH THE STRATUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY BURNING OFF.
MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER AT KGFL. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW ARE
MOVING INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC HAS BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. THE
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL
ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
LOWER CIGS AND THE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM TO THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...SEEMS
THE MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE FROM CIGS.
THEN FURTHER RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS A SHIELD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS IN THE SOLID MVFR WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA. CHC LATE NIGHT IFR WITH FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED COOL...DAMP WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH
RH. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WITHIN BANK RISES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER
STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
249 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 18Z...SEA BREEZES ARE BEGINNING TO SET UP ALONG THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
90 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...STILL
BELIEVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH SEVERAL
HOURS OF HEATING LEFT. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND NOW THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS SEEMS TO
AGREE. EITHER WAY...BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH HEATING LOSS.
BY MONDAY...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK
DOWN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE SWINGS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN COAST WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE STRAITS ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES WELL TO THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW COMBINED WITH
A CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL ALLOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL CONTINUE. OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE EAST
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ONSHORE BY 19Z AS A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. A FEW TSTORMS COULD DEVELOP, MOST
PROBABLE JUST WEST OF KTMB, SO ADDED VCTS THERE. STORM MOTION
COULD SEND A FEW STORMS TO THE SE COAST BUT GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY
DECIDED TO LEAVE VCTS OUT OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
OR CALM TONIGHT. UNCERTAIN ABOUT INITIAL WINDS MON MORNING BUT
BEST ESTIMATE IS BEGINNING SW BEFORE BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAPF TO PREVAIL SW THRU THE DAY MONDAY. A
FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST TERMINALS MONDAY...BUT AFT
18Z/BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD. /GREGORIA
&&
.MARINE...SEA BREEZES GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL TAPER OFF
AFTER SUNDOWN. WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. SEAS GENERALLY 4 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 90 75 89 / - 20 10 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 89 78 90 / - 20 20 40
MIAMI 76 91 77 90 / - 20 20 40
NAPLES 74 90 74 88 / - 10 10 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...VFR WILL CONTINUE. OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE EAST
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ONSHORE BY 19Z AS A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. A FEW TSTORMS COULD DEVELOP, MOST
PROBABLE JUST WEST OF KTMB, SO ADDED VCTS THERE. STORM MOTION
COULD SEND A FEW STORMS TO THE SE COAST BUT GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY
DECIDED TO LEAVE VCTS OUT OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT. UNCERTAIN ABOUT INITIAL WINDS MON MORNING
BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS BEGINNING SW BEFORE BECOMING SE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAPF TO PREVAIL SW THRU THE DAY
MONDAY. A FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST TERMINALS
MONDAY...BUT AFT 18Z/BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
UPDATE...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AS OF 13Z. 12Z MFL SOUNDING CAME IN DRY ALOFT WITH A PWAT
VALUE OF 1.18 INCHES WITH HIGHER VALUES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
WITH NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND BETTER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...COULD SPARK A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST HRRR AS WELL AS SREF ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES DO DEPICT SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. UPDATED TO INCLUDE THUNDER
ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD PUSH INLAND AROUND 18Z
WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL ALSO PUSH INLAND AROUND 10 KNOTS. WITH SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE TAF SITES
TODAY. A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AND
THEN A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW MAY OCCUR FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MAINTAINED SOME OF
ITS INTEGRITY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT
WILL SOON DISINTEGRATE AS IT EASES SOUTHEAST. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY, ESPECIALLY AS A LINGERING TROUGH HAS FINALLY PUSHED
EAST AND A BUILDING DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS ADVANCING INTO THE
REGION. LIFT WILL REMAIN RATHER INSIGNIFICANT TODAY WITH NO
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A
GRADUAL AND MODEST INCREASE IN COLUMNAR MOISTURE, BUT MAINLY
AFTER 21Z. SO WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER,
ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 90 TO THE MID 90S IN A FEW INTERIOR
LOCALES.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR
CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS, THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY STAY CLOSER TO COAST
AND NOT FULLY DEVELOP UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE
INLAND, IT MAY INDUCE ENOUGH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BUT, OVERALL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW AND SHOULD WORK
TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL AGAIN WARM
NICELY, PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, INCLUDING THE EAST COAST METRO.
THE RIDGE WILL ERODE ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, RESULTING IN THE
TRANSPORT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL
ESSENTIALLY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO OUR
WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BETTER FORCING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT FARTHER
NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NEVERTHELESS, THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND OVERALL PATTERN, INCLUDING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. UNDER THESE REGIMES, THE RISK FOR STRONG STORMS IS
TYPICALLY ENHANCED. AS THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLUGGISHLY
MOVES SOUTH AND APPROACHES THE AREA, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. A WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KAPF. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WELL TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION, WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK TODAY UNDER
THE RESULTING WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST. SEAS GENERALLY 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MID WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 73 91 75 / - - 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 76 91 78 / 10 - 20 20
MIAMI 91 76 92 77 / 20 - 20 20
NAPLES 89 74 89 75 / - - 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
104 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.MESO UPDATE...
ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THRU
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE CHANCES FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
INCREASE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST MESO DATA/PROGS ARE
GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF WEAKENING CAP IN THIS AREA WHERE DIURNAL
HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG. THIS IN
COMBO WITH DECENT SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KTS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME
SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL THEN TEND TO DEVELOP/MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THRU THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
KED
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE AREAL
COVERAGE COULD BECOME LOCALLY MORE NUMEROUS FOR A TIME...WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD...THOUGH
PERIODS OF DETERIORATION TO AT LEAST MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO SHOW THIS
CLOSER TO ONSET OF CONVECTION. MOST OF THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROF WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
KED
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WILL MAINTAIN A THUNDER MENTION AT CNU EARLY THIS MORNING AS
CURRENT MCS FROM EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KS WHERE 850 INFLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FOCUSED. WILL CARRY VCTS MENTION AT MOST SITES EXCEPT RSL. IT`S
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT CNU...ICT AND HUT MAY NEED A TEMPO TS AT SOME
POINT AND WILL REFINE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THIS MORNING`S MCS.
SYNOPSIS:
A MCS HAS DEVELOPED FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING.
TODAY - TONIGHT:
THE MCS THAT IS ONGOING THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS. THE HRRR AND GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A RELATIVELY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WHILE THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION. THE MAIN QUESTION AFTER THIS
CONVECTION EXITS TO THE EAST IS WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
SET UP. THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION
CHANCES AND DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE THE STRUGGLES THE 00Z NAM IS HAVING WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...FEEL THAT THE LATER EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 00Z/GFS AND 00Z/EC SUPPORT THE
00Z/NAM DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PUSHING EAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRIME A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE GFS/NAM INDICATING UPWARDS OF
3000-4000 J/KG CAPE BY 21Z WITH 40+KTS SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
COORDINATES WITH WHAT SPC IS THINKING AS OF THEIR 04Z UPDATE. AS
STATED...PIN POINTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT WITH IT DEPENDING ON HOW BOUNDARIES WILL EVOLVE AFTER THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION. BUT IF THERE ARE SOME BOUNDARIES AROUND...LOW
LEVEL HELICITY COULD BE ENHANCED AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI WITH CONVECTION LEAVING THE STATE BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY - SATURDAY:
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...KEEPING KANSAS
UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. A
DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DISLODGE A
POTENT CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE...THE
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH THE OUTWARD EDGES OF THIS SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARER TO NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK-WEEK AFTER AN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRY TO MOVE UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE WORK-WEEK AND THEY COULD SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. HAVE
MAINLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
BILLINGS
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND AFFECT A COUPLE TAF SITES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 89 69 90 67 / 50 50 10 10
HUTCHINSON 89 68 90 66 / 50 50 10 10
NEWTON 87 68 89 66 / 50 50 10 10
ELDORADO 86 68 89 66 / 40 60 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 89 70 90 68 / 50 60 20 10
RUSSELL 90 67 90 64 / 20 40 10 10
GREAT BEND 91 68 90 65 / 30 40 10 10
SALINA 89 69 90 65 / 40 50 10 10
MCPHERSON 88 68 90 65 / 50 50 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 87 70 89 69 / 30 70 20 10
CHANUTE 86 69 88 67 / 30 60 20 10
IOLA 86 68 88 66 / 30 60 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 87 70 89 68 / 30 60 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE AREAL
COVERAGE COULD BECOME LOCALLY MORE NUMEROUS FOR A TIME...WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD...THOUGH
PERIODS OF DETERIORATION TO AT LEAST MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO SHOW THIS
CLOSER TO ONSET OF CONVECTION. MOST OF THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROF WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
KED
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WILL MAINTAIN A THUNDER MENTION AT CNU EARLY THIS MORNING AS
CURRENT MCS FROM EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KS WHERE 850 INFLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FOCUSED. WILL CARRY VCTS MENTION AT MOST SITES EXCEPT RSL. IT`S
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT CNU...ICT AND HUT MAY NEED A TEMPO TS AT SOME
POINT AND WILL REFINE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THIS MORNING`S MCS.
SYNOPSIS:
A MCS HAS DEVELOPED FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING.
TODAY - TONIGHT:
THE MCS THAT IS ONGOING THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS. THE HRRR AND GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A RELATIVELY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONGOING CONVECTION WHILE THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION. THE MAIN QUESTION AFTER THIS
CONVECTION EXITS TO THE EAST IS WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL
SET UP. THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION
CHANCES AND DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE THE STRUGGLES THE 00Z NAM IS HAVING WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...FEEL THAT THE LATER EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 00Z/GFS AND 00Z/EC SUPPORT THE
00Z/NAM DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PUSHING EAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRIME A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE GFS/NAM INDICATING UPWARDS OF
3000-4000 J/KG CAPE BY 21Z WITH 40+KTS SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
COORDINATES WITH WHAT SPC IS THINKING AS OF THEIR 04Z UPDATE. AS
STATED...PIN POINTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT WITH IT DEPENDING ON HOW BOUNDARIES WILL EVOLVE AFTER THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION. BUT IF THERE ARE SOME BOUNDARIES AROUND...LOW
LEVEL HELICITY COULD BE ENHANCED AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI WITH CONVECTION LEAVING THE STATE BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY - SATURDAY:
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...KEEPING KANSAS
UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. A
DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DISLODGE A
POTENT CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE...THE
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH THE OUTWARD EDGES OF THIS SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEARER TO NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK-WEEK AFTER AN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRY TO MOVE UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE WORK-WEEK AND THEY COULD SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. HAVE
MAINLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
BILLINGS
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND AFFECT A COUPLE TAF SITES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 89 69 90 67 / 50 50 10 10
HUTCHINSON 89 68 90 66 / 50 40 10 10
NEWTON 87 68 89 66 / 50 50 10 10
ELDORADO 86 68 89 66 / 40 60 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 89 70 90 68 / 50 60 20 10
RUSSELL 90 68 90 64 / 20 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 91 67 90 65 / 30 20 10 10
SALINA 89 69 90 65 / 40 40 10 10
MCPHERSON 88 68 90 65 / 50 40 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 87 70 89 69 / 30 50 20 10
CHANUTE 86 69 88 67 / 30 60 20 10
IOLA 86 68 88 66 / 30 60 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 87 70 89 68 / 30 60 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
107 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW
HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...NEARING LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE COMBINATION OF
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY VALUES BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG...AND REACHING CONVECTIVE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW...WHICH COULD RESULT IN GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOW
FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO REACH 40-50 KTS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
ADDED BOTH THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MENTION TO AREAS WITH
HIGHER POPS. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE REGION IN A `SEE TEXT`
MENTION FOR TODAY/S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HAVE ALSO SEEN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LINE OF SHOWERS WITH 00Z HIGH-RES NCEP
NMM/ARW ALONG WITH 00Z NSSL ARW AND 00Z NAM NEST...SO HAVE TRIED
TO TIME THIS LINE OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HAVE BROUGHT ALL POPS
TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST...WHICH FOLLOWS THE
EXPECTED SKY COVER GRADIENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL HAVE SOLID AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SHOULD SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT UNLIKE TODAY...SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE WILL ALLOW FOR LESS INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE NO
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DISAGREEMENT FOR
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...SO HAVE GONE WITH MORE GENERIC CHANCE POPS.
THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD...SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO
HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER FLOW BLOCK IS NAEFS/ECMWF-FORECAST TO MAINTAIN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. COOL
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ANTICIPATED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
FORECAST IS MINIMAL AS SHORTWAVES IN FLOW WILL DEFINE MOISTURE
SUPPLY AND BOUNDARY POSITIONING.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE...TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED
UNDER COOLER MID LEVELS.
EARLY RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN FILLING...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE UNINTERRUPTED SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING, ALBEIT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS
WILL HAVE DEVELOPED BY 15Z. RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN AFFECT KFKL AND PERHAPS
KDUJ THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THIS SHOWER BAND IS PART OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWED
ROTATING AROUND A COLD LOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE.
BLEND OF WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOW ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. USED
THESE SOLUTIONS TO HELP FRAME TIMING OF TEMPO MVFR SHOWERS FOR
VARIOUS TAF SITES. NAM MODEL PROFILES AND SPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS, WHICH SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SUPPORTS. HOWEVER, DO NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN TAFS.
DID MENTION THAT SURFACE WINDS, SOUTHWEST BECOMING WEST IN
DIRECTION, CAN GENERALLY GUST TO 25-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON.
BY 02Z, NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW STABILITY RESTORED, WITH LESS WIND
AND LESS CLOUDS.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
533 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER CONSISTING OF ONLY
SOME PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AND MAYBE A FEW FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS ON MONDAY. AS FAR AS CAVEATS TO THIS BENIGN FORECAST
GO...THERE ARE TWO WORTH MENTIONING. FIRST OF ALL...THERE IS THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCE THAT A BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT...BUT LIKELIHOOD IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO IGNORE.
ALSO...SUPPOSE A BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN LIGHT HAZE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN
THE LIKELIHOOD IS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT A FORMAL MENTION.
WIND-WISE...SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE AT/BELOW 10KT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. OPTED TO USE VARIABLE 6KT WORDING FOR TONIGHT AS A SUBTLE
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO MORE OF A LIGHT BUT STEADY NORTHEAST BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME
MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS
RELEGATED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AS A RESULT. DESPITE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
INDICATE A COUPLE WARM CORE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH...AS OF 18Z...WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KONL...TO NEAR KLXN AND
KMCK...TO EAST OF KGLD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN
LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUDS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND FOR A SHORT WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON KUEX WAS INDICATING WEAK RETURNS FROM KODX TO
KBBW...ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND RAP ALL INDICATE CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND BROAD-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL
REMAIN WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE CWA PER THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AN RAP ALL INDICATE
AN ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BEING REALIZED. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC ALL SUGGEST INCREASED VALUES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND SOMEWHAT INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 2000J/KG...WITH THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTING THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
2500-3000J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
SREF-MEAN...NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...RAP...AND SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALL SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DETERMINING IF/WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE REALIZED IS TOUGH ENOUGH...BUT DETERMINING
WHETHER OR NOT SAID CONVECTION WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED IS EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT. AS ALREADY MENTIONED...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BECOMING A REALITY...BUT THE OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS COOLING
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850MB AND 750MB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT GIVEN THE
HIGH VALUES OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD MUCH
RATHER PLAY IT SAFE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WITH SEVERE WORDING INCLUDED...STARTING 22Z FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KMCK...TO NEAR KEAR...AND SOUTHEAST OF KODX.
THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALSO SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND THUS WILL ALSO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN
OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING SHOULD PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER TIME AS WEAK SHORT WAVES TRY TO
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HOTTER THAN
NORMAL WITH SOME LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENTS IN THE PERIOD...AND IT
APPEARS THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
TUESDAY...HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
STILL HOLDING STRONG. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY...EXPECT TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY
ABOUT THE SAME AS ON MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LOW END CHANCES
OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHEN IT COMES TO THE
DETAILS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE SCALE
STORM SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON DIURNAL
HEATING...AND POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS MCS FORMATION OR OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AT
THE START OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR
COVERAGE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
344 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS
RELEGATED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AS A RESULT. DESPITE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
INDICATE A COUPLE WARM CORE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH...AS OF 18Z...WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KONL...TO NEAR KLXN AND
KMCK...TO EAST OF KGLD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN
LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUDS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND FOR A SHORT WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON KUEX WAS INDICATING WEAK RETURNS FROM KODX TO
KBBW...ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND RAP ALL INDICATE CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND BROAD-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL
REMAIN WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE CWA PER THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AN RAP ALL INDICATE
AN ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BEING REALIZED. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC ALL SUGGEST INCREASED VALUES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND SOMEWHAT INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 2000J/KG...WITH THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTING THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
2500-3000J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
SREF-MEAN...NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...RAP...AND SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALL SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DETERMINING IF/WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE REALIZED IS TOUGH ENOUGH...BUT DETERMINING
WHETHER OR NOT SAID CONVECTION WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED IS EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT. AS ALREADY MENTIONED...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BECOMING A REALITY...BUT THE OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS COOLING
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850MB AND 750MB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT GIVEN THE
HIGH VALUES OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD MUCH
RATHER PLAY IT SAFE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WITH SEVERE WORDING INCLUDED...STARTING 22Z FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KMCK...TO NEAR KEAR...AND SOUTHEAST OF KODX.
THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALSO SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND THUS WILL ALSO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN
OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING SHOULD PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER TIME AS WEAK SHORT WAVES TRY TO
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HOTTER THAN
NORMAL WITH SOME LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENTS IN THE PERIOD...AND IT
APPEARS THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
TUESDAY...HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
STILL HOLDING STRONG. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY...EXPECT TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY
ABOUT THE SAME AS ON MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LOW END CHANCES
OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHEN IT COMES TO THE
DETAILS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE SCALE
STORM SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON DIURNAL
HEATING...AND POSSIBLE HIGH PLAINS MCS FORMATION OR OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AT
THE START OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR
COVERAGE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME CU NEAR 5000FT
AGL ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FAR
TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WIND
WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8KTS...BUT
BECOME VARIABLE AT 6KTS OR LESS BY 22Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH
INFILTRATES THE AREA FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SURFACE WIND WILL
THEN BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT AROUND
07KTS STARTING 04Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
135 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.UPDATE...MIDDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ONE OR TWO SUBTLE
MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 18Z...THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST
AS FROM NEAR KONL...TO NEAR KLXN AND KMCK...TO EAST OF KGLD.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUDS
NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND FOR A SHORT WHILE KUEX WAS INDICATING
WEAK RETURNS FROM KODX TO KBBW...ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH.
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND RAP ALL INDICATE CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND BROAD-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL
REMAIN WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE CWA PER THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AN RAP ALL INDICATE
AN ELEVATED THERMAL INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
FROM BEING REALIZED. THAT BEING SAID...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND EC ALL SUGGEST INCREASED VALUES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...AND SOMEWHAT INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 2000J/KG...WITH THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTING THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
2500-3000J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
SREF-MEAN...NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...RAP...AND SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM ALL SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGINNING
EARLY THIS EVENING. DETERMINING IF/WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE REALIZED IS
TOUGH ENOUGH...BUT DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT SAID CONVECTION WILL
BECOME SURFACE-BASED IS EVEN MORE DIFFICULT. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE ELEVATED THERMAL
INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION FROM BECOMING A
REALITY...BUT THE OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS COOLING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 850MB AND 750MB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION.THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT GIVEN THE
HIGH VALUES OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD MUCH
RATHER PLAY IT SAFE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING 22Z FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
KMCK...TO NEAR KEAR...AND SOUTHEAST OF KODX. THE 4KM WRF-NMM THEN
SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND THUS WILL ALSO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME CU NEAR 5000FT
AGL ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FAR
TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WIND
WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8KTS...BUT
BECOME VARIABLE AT 6KTS OR LESS BY 22Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH
INFILTRATES THE AREA FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SURFACE WIND WILL
THEN BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT AROUND
07KTS STARTING 04Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS RELEGATED TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST AS A RESULT. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A FEW WARM
CORE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE REMNANTS OF A ~30KT 850MB JET STREAK WAS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THIS LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE PAST FEW HOURS PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS OUR CWA
AS A RESULT.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...WAS PROMOTING WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOME OF WHICH
WAS OBSERVED OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB
JET STREAK HAS DIMINISHED THROUGH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
WITH THE LOSS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS ALSO DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR CWA. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIPITATION. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY
SKY...TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THIS
MORNING TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A PASSING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THIS
RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECT A STRING OF NICE DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
FOR TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THEREAFTER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO DWINDLE...AS
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISM...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND DECIDED TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DESPITE HIGHLIGHT OF SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THAT SAID...HOWEVER...IF CAP IS ABLE TO BE BROKEN...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GENERAL STORY HASNT
CHANGED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE CENTRAL CONUS
REMAINS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND SHARP RIDGE AXIS...STUCK
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
AND OVER THE IDAHO/MONT AREA. LOOKING AT THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY...THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS COME IN THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH HAS TAKEN A TREND TOWARD THE GFS...SHOWING THE RIDGE
AXIS HOLDING STRONG AND SHIFTING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW UP INTO
CANADA. SO INSTEAD OF BLANKETING QPF ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
RIDGE BEING BROKEN DOWN...THEY ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST INTO
THE CWA. BECAUSE OF THIS...TRENDED BACK POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURS NIGHT...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
SLIGHT CHANCES/IF ANY POPS ELSEWHERE. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS CONTINUE
THIS TREND...POPS COULD BE LOWERED MORE...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA COULD HAVE THEM REMOVED ALTOGETHER.
MODELS KEEP A BROADER RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY..BUT DO VARY ON ITS EXACT LOCATION...AND WHETHER FURTHER
WEAKENING OCCURS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
RIDING THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH...SO KEPT THE ALLBLEND
POPS AS IS...BUT WITH BOTH GENERALLY SHOWING DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS DRY.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE
HWO. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A MODEST INSTABILITY /PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE WEST...ESP EARLY IN THE PERIOD/ AND LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO
THOUGH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT...CANT COMPLETELY RULE SEVERE WEATHER OUT EITHER.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...ESP
WED AND SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY THUR/FRI. BY
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN MILD...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/1022 UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME CU NEAR 5000FT
AGL ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FAR
TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WIND
WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8KTS...BUT
BECOME VARIABLE AT 6KTS OR LESS BY 22Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH
INFILTRATES THE AREA FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SURFACE WIND WILL
THEN BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT AROUND
07KTS STARTING 04Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS RELEGATED TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST AS A RESULT. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A FEW WARM
CORE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE REMNANTS OF A ~30KT 850MB JET STREAK WAS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT THIS LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE PAST FEW HOURS PER RAP ANALYSIS DATA. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS OUR CWA
AS A RESULT.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...WAS PROMOTING WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOME OF WHICH
WAS OBSERVED OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB
JET STREAK HAS DIMINISHED THROUGH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
WITH THE LOSS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS ALSO DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR CWA. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIPITATION. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY
SKY...TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THIS
MORNING TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A PASSING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THIS
RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECT A STRING OF NICE DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
FOR TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THEREAFTER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO DWINDLE...AS
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISM...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND DECIDED TO LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DESPITE HIGHLIGHT OF SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THAT SAID...HOWEVER...IF CAP IS ABLE TO BE BROKEN...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GENERAL STORY HASNT
CHANGED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE CENTRAL CONUS
REMAINS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND SHARP RIDGE AXIS...STUCK
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
AND OVER THE IDAHO/MONT AREA. LOOKING AT THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY...THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS COME IN THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH HAS TAKEN A TREND TOWARD THE GFS...SHOWING THE RIDGE
AXIS HOLDING STRONG AND SHIFTING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW UP INTO
CANADA. SO INSTEAD OF BLANKETING QPF ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
RIDGE BEING BROKEN DOWN...THEY ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST INTO
THE CWA. BECAUSE OF THIS...TRENDED BACK POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURS NIGHT...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
SLIGHT CHANCES/IF ANY POPS ELSEWHERE. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS CONTINUE
THIS TREND...POPS COULD BE LOWERED MORE...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA COULD HAVE THEM REMOVED ALTOGETHER.
MODELS KEEP A BROADER RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY..BUT DO VARY ON ITS EXACT LOCATION...AND WHETHER FURTHER
WEAKENING OCCURS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
RIDING THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH...SO KEPT THE ALLBLEND
POPS AS IS...BUT WITH BOTH GENERALLY SHOWING DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS DRY.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE
HWO. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A MODEST INSTABILITY /PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE WEST...ESP EARLY IN THE PERIOD/ AND LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO
THOUGH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT...CANT COMPLETELY RULE SEVERE WEATHER OUT EITHER.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...ESP
WED AND SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY THUR/FRI. BY
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN MILD...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
115 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.
KB
&&
.UPDATE...
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND THUS HAVE
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED FORECAST. AS ALLUDED TO
ABOVE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SPREAD CHANCE POPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LAPS/RAP ANALYSIS DATA STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST
KS INTO NORTHEAST NM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES...PROVIDING ENHANCED FORCING FOR CONVECTION
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EASTWARD SOUTH OF THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INTO THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS FAR MIXING HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLUGGISH...NOT
SURPRISINGLY CONSIDERING RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE WESTERN
CWA THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THUS THE DRYLINE MAY NOT MIX AS
FAR EAST AS MODELS SUGGEST. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE AN EFFECTIVE
TRIPLE POINT SET UP THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THESE TWO BOUNDARIES
INTERSECT...LIKELY SOMEWHERE FROM THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF BOTH. STRONGEST INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG/ WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 TO
MAYBE 40 KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AS MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL PLACE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS AS STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH-BASED
AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAIRLY WEAK. OF COURSE WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN
THE AREA...CAN NEVER TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SPIN UP. FARTHER
WEST...STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY HIGH-BASED
STORMS.
KB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
WHETHER ANY THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. KGUY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING A
THUNDERSTORM...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER CHANCES AT KDHT AND KAMA.
HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT KGUY FROM 21Z-00Z BUT HAVE OMITTED AT
THE OTHER TWO TERMINALS FOR NOW WHERE CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORM
OCCURRENCE IS LOWER. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR...THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME WOULD BE 21-01Z AT KDHT AND A LITTLE LATER...MORE IN THE
00-03Z TIMEFRAME AT KAMA. GUSTY...ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AS WELL...PARTICULARLY AT KGUY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY AOB 15 KTS
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
UPDATE...
GRIDS/FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THE CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE THREE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO
15Z TODAY...AND THEN NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 20Z
TODAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS THE THEME OF THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE PANHANDLES LAST
EVENING IS ONGOING AT THIS HOUR OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
MEANWHILE...A SUBTLE MID/UPPER AIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IDENTIFIED IN
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS EXIST WITHIN NWP THIS MORNING WRT TODAY/S
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS. MODELS AGREE IN
PROPAGATING THE SAID WAVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY EVENING WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD ROUGHLY THE CANADIAN RIVER. MODELS ADDITIONALLY MIX/TIGHTEN A
DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AN EFFECTIVE
TRIPLE POINT IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. WITH THIS
AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS A BIT PUZZLING WHY
SOME MODELS CONVECT WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN DRY SOLUTIONS. THE WRF-NAM
AND HRRR PRODUCE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH LESSER SIGNALS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE NAM
ADDITIONALLY GENERATES HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN THE DRY AIR TOWARD
THE WEST...WHILE THE TTU WRF AND GFS ARE LARGELY CONVECTIVE-LESS.
GIVEN CONSISTENCY OF DEPICTED FORCING MECHANISMS...WILL LEAN GRIDS
TOWARD ACTIVE SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/ POPS
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT A
SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT OVER THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES...WHEREAS
DRIER AIR/WEAKER INSTABILITY MAY LEND TOWARD A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS SHOULD HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AS
A RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH
A RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE...AND EVEN A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER THE HEIGHT RIDGE ALOFT AND HELP TO PROMOTE CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE/MOS SHOW NOTABLE CONVECTIVE SIGNALS OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITHIN THIS REGIME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THUS HAVE TRENDED GRIDDED POPS TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS UPWARDS OF
30-40 PERCENT. WEAK MID/UPPER AIR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD RESTRICT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...BUT SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND AMPLE MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARIES.
WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIRTY RIDGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS THE SUBTLE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. YET MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN MOISTURE. THUS HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY IN WAKE OF A TIGHTENING DRYLINE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES...YIELDING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 MPH /20 FT/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A LOW RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING FROM HIGH BASED CONVECTION...AS
WELL AS ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS...MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...
AND THIS SHOULD BE MONITORED. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING AN ONSET OF
RELATIVELY COOLER/MOISTER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...LATE NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS.
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE...WITH RIDGING ALOFT KEEPING
CONVECTION AT BAY. A SIMILAR LLJ TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRATUS
PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. BUT FOLLOWING A SECOND DAY
OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP ADVECTION...THE STRATUS WILL HAVE A GREATER
CHANCE TO REACH THE METROPLEX MONDAY MORNING.
25
&&
.UPDATE...
REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. OTHERWISE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONGER NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AND A CUT-OFF WEAK MID LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TX. A LARGE LINEAR MCS
WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHERN KS. ALL WRF MODELS AND
THE RUC RAPID REFRESH SHOW THE BULK OF THIS MCS CONTINUING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE NE OF A SHERMAN TO COOPER
LINE. SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EXIST
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THOUGH FEEL HEATING AND
STRONG MIXING BY MIDDAY WILL LIKELY WASH THIS FEATURE OUT. FOR NOW
WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WE WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TO SEE IF ANYTHING OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OTHERWISE...AREA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY
...OR UNTIL OUR MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TX BEGINS MIGRATING
SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE ARKLATEX LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND HELP PULL THE WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN OK
BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO TUESDAY. WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS IS WHAT IS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM STALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE SREF/ECMWF/GFS MODELS TAKING IT FURTHER
SOUTH. HAVE LEANED WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION WITH AND MAINTAINED
LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OFF/ON FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. ONCE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF MID LEVEL AND FRONT
CAN BE DETERMINED WITH MORE ACCURACY...THEN POPS CAN BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THE WEAK MID LEVEL
LOW WILL MIGRATE EAST UNDERNEATH AN OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MID WEEK AND THE FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED
AS THESE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAY BE REINTRODUCED ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 96 74 97 76 93 / 5 0 5 10 30
WACO, TX 94 73 94 75 94 / 5 0 0 0 20
PARIS, TX 92 70 93 74 90 / 20 0 10 20 20
DENTON, TX 96 73 96 73 93 / 10 0 10 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 94 73 94 72 91 / 10 0 10 20 30
DALLAS, TX 95 75 96 76 92 / 5 0 5 10 30
TERRELL, TX 93 72 95 75 92 / 5 0 5 10 30
CORSICANA, TX 93 73 94 75 92 / 5 0 5 5 30
TEMPLE, TX 93 72 95 75 93 / 5 0 0 0 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 97 71 98 72 92 / 5 0 5 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/92
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
102 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON
1002 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
CURRENTLY WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER OUT ACROSS
WESTERN MN MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH. RAP ANALYSIS/FORECAST
SHOWS RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER ALONG WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AREA OF SHRA/ISOLD T GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER AS THE PCPN
MOVES IN...BUT DYNAMIC FORCING SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THIS DRY AIR. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED SHRA/TS CHANCES GOING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
315 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY TROUGHS ALONG EACH COAST
AND RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH SYSTEMS RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE SKIRTING THE AREA. RATHER CHALLENGING TO TRY AND PINPOINT
ANY TIME FRAMES OF PRECIPITATION AND JUST USED AN ALLBLEND SOLUTION
FOR THESE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
101 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING..BRINGING AND END TO THE SCATTERED -SHRA/VCSH THREAT.
LOOK FOR SKIES TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MODEL SOUNDING/GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME FOG AT THE KRST TAF SITE
IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOISTENING OF THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDED SOME MVFR 4SM BR IN THAT TIME FRAME. FOR
MONDAY...LOOKING FOR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AROUND 15Z OR SO WITH
BASES AOA 5KFT. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
308 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....JLR
AVIATION...DAS