Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/30/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
210 PM PDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED INLAND WARMING AND WEAKER WINDS TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. WARMER INLAND WITH WEAKER WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLOW
COOLING...SLOW DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER WITH MORE COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SO FAR TODAY TEMPERATURES ARE UP 2 TO 6 DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAY...REFLECTING ABOUT HALF THE 24 HOUR WARMING SHOWN IN THE
MORNING SOUNDINGS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING TO
GO. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE HIGHS FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEAR TO BE
CLOSE TO WHAT WILL BE OBSERVED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND THIS ALSO AGREES WITH THE MODEL
TREND AND FORECAST NUMBERS. BLENDED WIND AND WIND GUSTS HALFWAY
TOWARDS THE LATEST HRRR AND 12Z WRF MODELS.
THE 28/12Z GFS AND GEM MODELS WERE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER REGIONAL MODELS. THE AVERAGE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
ALL MODELS INCREASE 20 METERS ON TUESDAY...50 METERS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO FALL 10-20 METERS EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY
INTO NEXT TUESDAY. MADE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX AND MIN TEMP
GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.
THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH...AS DEFINED BY SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT...FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2100 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOWER
TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TO AROUND 1500 FEET AS RIDGE
REBUILDS/SUBSIDENCE LOWERS INVERSION FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...THEN STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 3500 FEET BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. DI ADD SOME DENSE FOG OVER THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS GENERALLY
COASTAL MESAS AND LOWER INLAND VALLEYS.
&&
FROM MORNING DISCUSSION....
THE 28/12Z NAM IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OTHER MODELS EARLIER
RUNS...28/06Z GFS AND 28/00Z ECMWF...ON TRENDS IN 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MAGNITUDES OF THESE VARIABLES
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CA/AZ/NV BORDER REGION. THE NAM
INDICATES A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE PERIODS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION/
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB THAT WOULD SUPPORT THIS THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/QUASI-CUTOFF 500 LOW SHOWN AT 500 MB
LEVEL THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY SEEMS TO HAVE NO SURFACE
REFLECTION. LOOKING FURTHER OUT THE 28/06Z GFS AND THE 28/00Z ECWMF
WERE BOTH HINTING AT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COASTAL SLOPES...AND
A GENERAL COOL DOWN INTO NEXT TUESDAY. WILL REEVALUATE THIS WHEN
THE28/12Z GFS MODEL IS RECEIVED...BUT PROBABLY NOT GOING TO MAKE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS/FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
282030Z...CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. BETWEEN 05-10Z THE LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL
AIRPORTS WITH BASES 800-1000 FEET ASL AND LOCAL VIS 5SM BR ON THE
MESAS. SCATTER OUT WILL OCCUR BY 16-17Z TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPS UP ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 2 MB STRONGER TUESDAY...SO
LOOK FOR WIND GUSTS ABOUT ONE AND THIRD TIMES AS STRONG AS TODAY.
TREND FOR WEDNESDAY IS TO DROP BACK TO TODAYS NUMBERS...THEN BACK UP
AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GENERAL COOL DOWN AND MOISTENING FROM
FRIDAY ON. MIGHT SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING LOWER COASTAL SLOPES WESTWARD BUT NO WETTING
RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR
AVIATION/MARINE...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
204 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF STORMY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR AND VIS SAT IMAGES SHOW THE DISSIPATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL NY STILL PUSHING ESE. DESPITE THE CURRENT
DISSIPATION...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
CONNECTICUT. A WARM FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND INTO WESTERN NY...KEEPING THE WAA PERSISTENT OVER THE CWA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS DOWN THE RIGHT SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CREATING DECENT LIFT THROUGH THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING OF THE SKIES ALONG WITH
THE WAA ARE PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWS PTS
NEARING 70. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY READINGS
HAVE PUSHED WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
QUICKLY...PUSHING ABOVE 7 C/KM ALREADY. DESPITE WEAKER SHEAR
VALUES LESS THAN 30 KTS...CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO
SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE RIGHT TRIGGER.
ONE MORE THING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE ALONG SOUTHERN
LI AND CT PUSHING INLAND. BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE...A MORE STABLE
AND COOLER ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HELP IN
DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE
COASTS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING A READ FOR
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTN...HAVING NOT CAPTURED THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY. WILL REMAIN WITH THE IDEA THE BEST THREAT IS INLAND NY
AND CT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL. EHI VALUES NEAR 3 M2/S2 HINT
AT SOME POSSIBLE ROTATION WHICH MAY LEAD TO TOR FORMATION. BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PREVAILING NW STORM FLOW TAKES ANY TSTMS THRU THE CWA TNGT. THE
ATMOSPHERE THEN RECHARGES FOR TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
FALLING HEIGHTS WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...SO POPS RAMP UP TO
LIKELY BY LATE AFTN. THERE WILL REMAIN A SVR THREAT...BUT LLVL
HELICITY WILL BE MUCH LWR WITH THE WARM FRONT OUT OF THE PICTURE.
TEMPS THRU THE FCST ARE BLEND OF THE MAV/MET...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED
BY THE NAM 2M DATA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REMAINS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION. THE GFS IS
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF.PREFER A LITTLE SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH THE GFS
AS LOW IS ALMOST CUT OFF...THEN GETS PICKED UP WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL
HAVE WET WEATHER INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS.
SEA BREEZE HAS MADE IT THROUGH KBDR AND KISP...AND POSSIBLY JUST
RECENTLY AT KHPN. SEA BREEZE PROBABLE FOR KJFK AND KGON SOON. LESS
CONFIDENCE THAT IT REACHES KLGA...BUT STILL IN THE FORECAST.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 19-20Z NEAR
KSWF...AND AS EARLY AS 21-22Z AT THE CITY TERMINALS.
ELSEWHERE...RANGING FROM AS EARLY AS 20-22Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AROUND 2
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY MIGHT NOT OCCUR AT ALL THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY AS EARLY AS AROUND 22Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AROUND 2
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY MIGHT NOT OCCUR AT ALL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
OTHERWISE MOST LIKELY TO BE NE TO N UNTIL AROUND 21Z...BUT UNDER 8KT.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY AS EARLY AS AROUND 22Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY AS
EARLY AS AROUND 21Z. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SEA BREEZE REACHES
SOMETIME AFTER 20Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT NEAR 150 DEGREES TRUE.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY AS
EARLY AS AROUND 21Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY AS
EARLY AS AROUND 20Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS AROUND 23Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...TSTMS LIKELY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONT.
.WED...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
.WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING...VFR.
.FRI AFTERNOON-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK.
WITH THE WARM FRONT N OF THE WATERS...PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW WILL
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN THRU TUE. WAVEWATCH RUNNING SLIGHTLY
HIGH...SO THE DATA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY AROUND A FT THRU
THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR THE 5 FT SEAS WILL BE DURING THE DAY
TUE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT LATE
TNGT.
A CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS AT OR ABOVE 5 FT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF
THE WATERS FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THRU TUE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED 1 INCH/HR AT TIMES IN THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. SOME MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE THREAT
FOR ISOLD FLASH FLOODING.
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/12
NEAR TERM...SEARS/12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MET/12
HYDROLOGY...MET/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
139 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT 18Z SPECIAL BALLOON SOUNDING.
A WARM FRONT MEANDERS FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
REMNANT OF MCS RIDING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY CONVECTION HAS FIRED. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY HAS ALSO
WEAKENED. BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SBCAPE HAS INCREASED TO
1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DEW POINTS AT KPOU 70 DEGREES AND AT KALB 57 DEGREES. THE POSITION
OF THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO FORECAST HOWEVER IT SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AS ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE IS MODELED TO BUILD
SLIGHTLY AND CREST OVER REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL RIDE OVER TOP
THE RIDGE.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON THE EYE RADAR AND TRENDS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE TH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
AS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY.
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...CONTINUE TO FOLLOW AN MCS WORKING TOWARD OUR
ADIRONDACKS...BUT WEAKENING.
SPC GUIDANCE INDICATED ANY REAL SURFACE INSTABILITY WAS WELL SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
STEEP...UP TO 7C/KM...AS A EML MOVES OVER THE REGION LATER ON.
DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE 50S FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...BUT JUMP TO
THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH AND EVEN EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
(BERKSHIRES INCLUDED).
UNFORTUNATELY MUCH OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS WERE NOT OF MUCH
ASSISTANCE...FAILING TO INITIALIZE THE MCS. THE LATEST HRRR FINALLY
HAS LOCKED ONTO IT. THE 12Z NAM HOWEVER...STILL DID NOT DEPICT THE
FEATURE! SPC WRF DID APPEAR TO CAPTURE THE MCS BUT LOOKED A LITTLE
SLOW AND NORTH WITH ITS PROGRESS.
A WARM FRONT WAS PERCHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
APPEARS TO BE IN NO HURRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
IT LOOKS AS IF THE MOST ENERGETIC PORTION OF THE MCS WAS IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING SOUTHWARD...WITH THE WEAKENING PORTION HEADING
INTO OUR AREA WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND AND WE BELIEVE THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS AS
WELL AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER ON.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE SYNOPTIC FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS. SINCE IT
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WE NOW BELIEVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION MIGHT ACTUALLY BE
THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY..LITCHFIELD COUNTY INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT REALLY ANY AREA IS STILL FAIR GAME FOR DEVELOPMENT
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO OVER
1000 J/KG NORTH...AND 2000 J/KG SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.
DID NOT TINKER WITH THE GRIDS FROM 18Z ON. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKED
REASONABLE BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN (UNFORTUNATELY WITHOUT THE
ASSISTANCE OF OUR RAOB WHICH IS STILL OTS). LOOKS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES 85-90 VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...80-85
HIGHER TERRAIN. TO THE NORTH ALBANY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S VALLEY LOCATIONS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE
UPPER TROUGH. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT THE FA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES LESSEN TO 6
TO 6.5 C/KM...MLCAPES REMAIN VERY HIGHS WITH UP TO 4000 J/KG
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS
AS UPPER JET ENDS UP PUTTING FA IN EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF
A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 100+ KT JET MAX OVER SRN ONTARIO. BOTH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD TO THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS.
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER
WHICH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE STRICTLY (WITH SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE PERIOD BRINGING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMALS FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT 60S NORTH. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S SOUTH...40S NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN...THE IT LOOKS AS IF AN IMPRESSIVE MID LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM MIGHT HAVE SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL. EVEN IF IT DOESN/T...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
IT WILL BRING A PRETTY GOOD SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
AS LONG AS IT KEEPS MOVING...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING COULD TAKE PLACE
LATE SATURDAY...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...SO RAIN TAPERS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT MIGHT NOT
COMPLETELY END. CLOUDS LOOK TO HOLD IN PLACE...AND AS A RESULT HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 60S ON SATURDAY.
A BREEZY SOMEWHAT COOL DAY FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STILL WITH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH...AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS. FOR NOW...JUST CALL
IT SLIGHT POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER 70S MOST VALLEY AREAS.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IMPACTING ANY TAF IS STILL THERE...BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY GIVEN TIME IS LOW (UNDER 25 PERCENT). THEREFORE
PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT KPOU...WHERE A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS NOW IN THE CATSKILLS MIGHT PASS VERY CLOSE TO OR
EVEN BRIEFLY IMPACT THAT TAF SITE. SO PLACED A TWO HOUR WINDOW OF
VCSH FROM THE START OF THE TAF SITE. THEN...PLACE VCSH IN LATER THIS
EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...THREW MVFR IN ALL SITES AFT 06Z DUE TO INCREASED
CHANCES OF STRATUS AND OR BR DEVELOPING. THERE WILL STILL BE THE
CHANCE OF CONVECTION BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO EVEN PLACE A
PROB30 IN THAT THIS TIME.
EVEN INTO MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH IDEA AS THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL CONTINUES. OTHERWISE LOOKS MAINLY VFR AT THIS VANTAGE
POINT BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE.
THE WIND WILL BE OR BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10KTS OR LESS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. KPSF ACTUALLY HAD A GUSTY WEST WIND BUT THAT
WIND SHOULD BACK TO THE SOUTH LATER ON. OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT OR SOUTH UNDER 10KTS.
KEEP IN MIND...SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACT THE TAF SITES...THE
WIND COULD BRIEFLY BE A BIT STRONGER.
PLEASE REFER BACK OFTEN TO THIS PRODUCE FOR ANY POSSIBLE UPDATES AS
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
TUE...SUB-VFR. CIG. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY.
WED...MVFR/IFR IMPROVING TO VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA IN THE AM.
THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS IN AFTERNOON.
SAT...SUB-VFR. CIG. GOOD CHANCE SHOWERS OR RAIN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION PWATS RISE TO BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING CELLS AND SOME BACKBUILDING CELLS. WHILE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS MAY HAVE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE WHICH
OCCURRED SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...IN THIS
CASE IT WAS IN JUST OVER AND HOUR. THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING WOULD
BE THE MAJOR CONCERN...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF OCCURRENCE DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A WATCH AT
THIS TIME AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS FORECAST FOR TODAY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 28TH...
ALBANY NY:
91 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1911
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1820
GLENS FALLS:
88 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1998 (AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944
POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
90 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1977
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
FOR MORE GO TO OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/LOCAL_DATA.PHP?WFO=ALY
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOW LOOKING AT AN 18Z SPECIAL BALLOON.
THE ELECTRONICS STAFF HAS INSTALLED THE NEW SIGNAL PROCESSING SYSTEM.
WE ARE GOING TO TRY A 17Z SPECIAL BALLOON LAUNCH.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF STORMY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR AND VIS SAT IMAGES SHOW THE DISSIPATING MCS OVER
CENTRAL NY STILL PUSHING ESE. DESPITE THE CURRENT
DISSIPATION...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
CONNECTICUT. A WARM FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND INTO WESTERN NY...KEEPING THE WAA PERSISTENT OVER THE CWA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS DOWN THE RIGHT SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CREATING DECENT LIFT THROUGH THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING OF THE SKIES ALONG WITH
THE WAA ARE PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWS PTS
NEARING 70. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY READINGS
HAVE PUSHED WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
QUICKLY...PUSHING ABOVE 7 C/KM ALREADY. DESPITE WEAKER SHEAR
VALUES LESS THAN 30 KTS...CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO
SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE RIGHT TRIGGER.
ONE MORE THING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE ALONG SOUTHERN
LI AND CT PUSHING INLAND. BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE...A MORE STABLE
AND COOLER ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HELP IN
DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE
COASTS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING A READ FOR
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTN...HAVING NOT CAPTURED THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY. WILL REMAIN WITH THE IDEA THE BEST THREAT IS INLAND NY
AND CT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL. EHI VALUES NEAR 3 M2/S2 HINT
AT SOME POSSIBLE ROTATION WHICH MAY LEAD TO TOR FORMATION. BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PREVAILING NW STORM FLOW TAKES ANY TSTMS THRU THE CWA TNGT. THE
ATMOSPHERE THEN RECHARGES FOR TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
FALLING HEIGHTS WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...SO POPS RAMP UP TO
LIKELY BY LATE AFTN. THERE WILL REMAIN A SVR THREAT...BUT LLVL
HELICITY WILL BE MUCH LWR WITH THE WARM FRONT OUT OF THE PICTURE.
TEMPS THRU THE FCST ARE BLEND OF THE MAV/MET...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED
BY THE NAM 2M DATA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REMAINS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION. THE GFS IS
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF.PREFER A LITTLE SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH THE GFS
AS LOW IS ALMOST CUT OFF...THEN GETS PICKED UP WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL
HAVE WET WEATHER INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS.
SEA BREEZE AT THE CITY TERMINALS BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN AS TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST...POTENTIALLY PRECLUDING SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO TREND FORECAST TOWARDS SW FOR KLGA
AND KJFK THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS EARLY
AS 19-20Z NEAR KSWF...AND AS EARLY AS 20-21Z AT THE CITY TERMINALS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS WITH NEXT UPDATE.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AROUND 2
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY MIGHT NOT OCCUR AT ALL THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY AS EARLY AS AROUND 21Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AROUND 2
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY MIGHT NOT OCCUR AT ALL THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY AS EARLY AS AROUND 21Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY AS
EARLY AS AROUND 20-21Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY AS
EARLY AS AROUND 20-21Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MIGHT NOT OCCUR AT ALL.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY AS EARLY AS AROUND 20Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...MORNING IFR POSSIBLE...MAINLY EASTERN TERMINALS.
TSTMS LIKELY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
.WED...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
.WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING...VFR.
.FRI AFTERNOON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK.
WITH THE WARM FRONT N OF THE WATERS...PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW WILL
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN THRU TUE. WAVEWATCH RUNNING SLIGHTLY
HIGH...SO THE DATA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY AROUND A FT THRU
THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR THE 5 FT SEAS WILL BE DURING THE DAY
TUE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT LATE
TNGT.
A CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS AT OR ABOVE 5 FT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF
THE WATERS FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THRU TUE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED 1 INCH/HR AT TIMES IN THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. SOME MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE THREAT
FOR ISOLD FLASH FLOODING.
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/12
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MET/12
HYDROLOGY...MET/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1243 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKING AT 18Z SPECIAL BALLOON SOUNDING.
A WARM FRONT MEANDERS FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
REMNANT OF MCS RIDING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY CONVECTION HAS FIRED. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY HAS ALSO
WEAKENED. BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SBCAPE HAS INCREASED TO
1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DEW POINTS AT KPOU 70 DEGREES AND AT KALB 57 DEGREES. THE POSITION
OF THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO FORECAST HOWEVER IT SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AS ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE IS MODELED TO BUILD
SLIGHTLY AND CREST OVER REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL RIDE OVER TOP
THE RIDGE.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON THE EYE RADAR AND TRENDS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE TH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
AS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY.
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...CONTINUE TO FOLLOW AN MCS WORKING TOWARD OUR
ADIRONDACKS...BUT WEAKENING.
SPC GUIDANCE INDICATED ANY REAL SURFACE INSTABILITY WAS WELL SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
STEEP...UP TO 7C/KM...AS A EML MOVES OVER THE REGION LATER ON.
DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE 50S FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...BUT JUMP TO
THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH AND EVEN EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
(BERKSHIRES INCLUDED).
UNFORTUNATELY MUCH OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS WERE NOT OF MUCH
ASSISTANCE...FAILING TO INITIALIZE THE MCS. THE LATEST HRRR FINALLY
HAS LOCKED ONTO IT. THE 12Z NAM HOWEVER...STILL DID NOT DEPICT THE
FEATURE! SPC WRF DID APPEAR TO CAPTURE THE MCS BUT LOOKED A LITTLE
SLOW AND NORTH WITH ITS PROGRESS.
A WARM FRONT WAS PERCHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
APPEARS TO BE IN NO HURRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
IT LOOKS AS IF THE MOST ENERGETIC PORTION OF THE MCS WAS IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING SOUTHWARD...WITH THE WEAKENING PORTION HEADING
INTO OUR AREA WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND AND WE BELIEVE THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS AS
WELL AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER ON.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE SYNOPTIC FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS. SINCE IT
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WE NOW BELIEVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION MIGHT ACTUALLY BE
THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY..LITCHFIELD COUNTY INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT REALLY ANY AREA IS STILL FAIR GAME FOR DEVELOPMENT
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO OVER
1000 J/KG NORTH...AND 2000 J/KG SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.
DID NOT TINKER WITH THE GRIDS FROM 18Z ON. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKED
REASONABLE BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN (UNFORTUNATELY WITHOUT THE
ASSISTANCE OF OUR RAOB WHICH IS STILL OTS). LOOKS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES 85-90 VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...80-85
HIGHER TERRAIN. TO THE NORTH ALBANY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S VALLEY LOCATIONS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE
UPPER TROUGH. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT THE FA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES LESSEN TO 6
TO 6.5 C/KM...MLCAPES REMAIN VERY HIGHS WITH UP TO 4000 J/KG
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS
AS UPPER JET ENDS UP PUTTING FA IN EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF
A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 100+ KT JET MAX OVER SRN ONTARIO. BOTH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD TO THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS.
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER
WHICH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE STRICTLY (WITH SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE PERIOD BRINGING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMALS FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT 60S NORTH. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S SOUTH...40S NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN...THE IT LOOKS AS IF AN IMPRESSIVE MID LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM MIGHT HAVE SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL. EVEN IF IT DOESN/T...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
IT WILL BRING A PRETTY GOOD SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
AS LONG AS IT KEEPS MOVING...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING COULD TAKE PLACE
LATE SATURDAY...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...SO RAIN TAPERS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT MIGHT NOT
COMPLETELY END. CLOUDS LOOK TO HOLD IN PLACE...AND AS A RESULT HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 60S ON SATURDAY.
A BREEZY SOMEWHAT COOL DAY FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STILL WITH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH...AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS. FOR NOW...JUST CALL
IT SLIGHT POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER 70S MOST VALLEY AREAS.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
STRATUS FINALLY BURNED OFF AT KPOU. LOOKING AT PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO S BY LATE MORNING...AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY S AT LESS THAN 8 KT
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY TSTMS.
TUE...VFR/MVFR. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MVFR/IFR IMPROVING TO VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA IN THE AM.
THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHOWERS ESP IN AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION PWATS RISE TO BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING CELLS AND SOME BACKBUILDING CELLS. WHILE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS MAY HAVE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE WHICH
OCCURRED SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...IN THIS
CASE IT WAS IN JUST OVER AND HOUR. THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING WOULD
BE THE MAJOR CONCERN...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF OCCURRENCE DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A WATCH AT
THIS TIME AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS FORECAST FOR TODAY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 28TH...
ALBANY NY:
91 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1911
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1820
GLENS FALLS:
88 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1998 (AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944
POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
90 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1977
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
FOR MORE GO TO OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/LOCAL_DATA.PHP?WFO=ALY
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOW LOOKING AT AN 18Z SPECIAL BALLOON.
THE ELECTRONICS STAFF HAS INSTALLED THE NEW SIGNAL PROCESSING SYSTEM.
WE ARE GOING TO TRY A 17Z SPECIAL BALLOON LAUNCH.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...IAA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1212 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE ELECTRONICS STAFF HAS INSTALLED THE NEW SIGNAL PROCESSING SYSTEM.
WE ARE GOING TO TRY A 17Z SPECIAL BALLOON LAUNCH.
A WARM FRONT MEANDERS FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
REMNANT OF MCS RIDING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CONVECTION HAS FIRED. HOWEVER THIS
ACTIVITY HAS ALSO WEAKENED. BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SBCAPE
HAS INCREASED TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS AT KPOU 70 DEGREES AND AT KALB 57
DEGREES. THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST HOWEVER IT SHOULD FINALLY LIFT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A CLOSE ON THE EYE RADAR AND TRENDS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE TH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AS INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY.
ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE IS MODELED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AND CREST OVER
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. GUIDANCE
INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL RIDE OVER TOP THE RIDGE.
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...CONTINUE TO FOLLOW AN MCS WORKING TOWARD OUR
ADIRONDACKS...BUT WEAKENING.
SPC GUIDANCE INDICATED ANY REAL SURFACE INSTABILITY WAS WELL SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
STEEP...UP TO 7C/KM...AS A EML MOVES OVER THE REGION LATER ON.
DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE 50S FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...BUT JUMP TO
THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH AND EVEN EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
(BERKSHIRES INCLUDED).
UNFORTUNATELY MUCH OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS WERE NOT OF MUCH
ASSISTANCE...FAILING TO INITIALIZE THE MCS. THE LATEST HRRR FINALLY
HAS LOCKED ONTO IT. THE 12Z NAM HOWEVER...STILL DID NOT DEPICT THE
FEATURE! SPC WRF DID APPEAR TO CAPTURE THE MCS BUT LOOKED A LITTLE
SLOW AND NORTH WITH ITS PROGRESS.
A WARM FRONT WAS PERCHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
APPEARS TO BE IN NO HURRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
IT LOOKS AS IF THE MOST ENERGETIC PORTION OF THE MCS WAS IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING SOUTHWARD...WITH THE WEAKENING PORTION HEADING
INTO OUR AREA WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND AND WE BELIEVE THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS AS
WELL AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER ON.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE SYNOPTIC FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS. SINCE IT
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WE NOW BELIEVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION MIGHT ACTUALLY BE
THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY..LITCHFIELD COUNTY INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT REALLY ANY AREA IS STILL FAIR GAME FOR DEVELOPMENT
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO OVER
1000 J/KG NORTH...AND 2000 J/KG SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.
DID NOT TINKER WITH THE GRIDS FROM 18Z ON. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKED
REASONABLE BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN (UNFORTUNATELY WITHOUT THE
ASSISTANCE OF OUR RAOB WHICH IS STILL OTS). LOOKS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES 85-90 VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...80-85
HIGHER TERRAIN. TO THE NORTH ALBANY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S VALLEY LOCATIONS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE
UPPER TROUGH. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT THE FA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES LESSEN TO 6
TO 6.5 C/KM...MLCAPES REMAIN VERY HIGHS WITH UP TO 4000 J/KG
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS
AS UPPER JET ENDS UP PUTTING FA IN EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF
A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 100+ KT JET MAX OVER SRN ONTARIO. BOTH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD TO THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS.
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER
WHICH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE STRICTLY (WITH SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE PERIOD BRINGING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMALS FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT 60S NORTH. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S SOUTH...40S NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN...THE IT LOOKS AS IF AN IMPRESSIVE MID LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM MIGHT HAVE SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL. EVEN IF IT DOESN/T...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
IT WILL BRING A PRETTY GOOD SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
AS LONG AS IT KEEPS MOVING...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING COULD TAKE PLACE
LATE SATURDAY...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE...SO RAIN TAPERS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT MIGHT NOT
COMPLETELY END. CLOUDS LOOK TO HOLD IN PLACE...AND AS A RESULT HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 60S ON SATURDAY.
A BREEZY SOMEWHAT COOL DAY FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STILL WITH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH...AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS. FOR NOW...JUST CALL
IT SLIGHT POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER 70S MOST VALLEY AREAS.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
STRATUS FINALLY BURNED OFF AT KPOU. LOOKING AT PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO S BY LATE MORNING...AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY S AT LESS THAN 8 KT
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY TSTMS.
TUE...VFR/MVFR. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MVFR/IFR IMPROVING TO VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA IN THE AM.
THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHOWERS ESP IN AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION PWATS RISE TO BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING CELLS AND SOME BACKBUILDING CELLS. WHILE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS MAY HAVE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE WHICH
OCCURRED SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...IN THIS
CASE IT WAS IN JUST OVER AND HOUR. THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING WOULD
BE THE MAJOR CONCERN...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF OCCURRENCE DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A WATCH AT
THIS TIME AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS FORECAST FOR TODAY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 28TH...
ALBANY NY:
91 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1911
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1820
GLENS FALLS:
88 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1998 (AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944
POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
90 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1977
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
FOR MORE GO TO OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/LOCAL_DATA.PHP?WFO=ALY
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE ELECTRONICS STAFF HAS INSTALLED THE NEW SIGNAL PROCESSING SYSTEM.
WE ARE GOING TO TRY A 17Z SPECIAL BALLOON LAUNCH.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...IAA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1040 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY...PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...CONTINUE TO FOLLOW AN MCS WORKING TOWARD OUR
ADIRONDACKS...BUT WEAKENING.
SPC GUIDANCE INDICATED ANY REAL SURFACE INSTABILITY WAS WELL SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
STEEP...UP TO 7C/KM...AS A EML MOVES OVER THE REGION LATER ON.
DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE 50S FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...BUT JUMP TO
THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH AND EVEN EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
(BERKSHIRES INCLUDED).
UNFORTUNATELY MUCH OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS WERE NOT OF MUCH
ASSISTANCE...FAILING TO INITIALIZE THE MCS. THE LATEST HRRR FINALLY
HAS LOCKED ONTO IT. THE 12Z NAM HOWEVER...STILL DID NOT DEPICT THE
FEATURE! SPC WRF DID APPEAR TO CAPTURE THE MCS BUT LOOKED A LITTLE
SLOW AND NORTH WITH ITS PROGRESS.
A WARM FRONT WAS PERCHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
APPEARS TO BE IN NO HURRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
IT LOOKS AS IF THE MOST ENERGETIC PORTION OF THE MCS WAS IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING SOUTHWARD...WITH THE WEAKENING PORTION HEADING
INTO OUR AREA WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND AND WE BELIEVE THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS AS
WELL AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER ON.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE SYNOPTIC FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS. SINCE IT
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WE NOW BELIEVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION MIGHT ACTUALLY BE
THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY..LITCHFIELD COUNTY INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT REALLY ANY AREA IS STILL FAIR GAME FOR DEVELOPMENT
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO OVER
1000 J/KG NORTH...AND 2000 J/KG SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.
DID NOT TINKER WITH THE GRIDS FROM 18Z ON. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKED
REASONABLE BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN (UNFORTUNATELY WITHOUT THE
ASSISTANCE OF OUR RAOB WHICH IS STILL OTS). LOOKS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES 85-90 VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...80-85
HIGHER TERRAIN. TO THE NORTH ALBANY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S VALLEY LOCATIONS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
MUCH OF THE FA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR OLD FORGE AND
BRATTLEBORO AT 00Z TO NORTHEAST VERMONT AND SOUTHEAST MAINE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TO 7 TO 8 C/KM. IN ADDITION 0-3 KM HELICITIES REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN
200 AND 400 M2/S2 ACRS NE THIRD OF FA. THUS SUPERCELLS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. THE WBZ HEIGHTS START TO DROP TO BTWN 8 AND 10 KFT SO
LARGE HAIL ALSO BECOMES MORE OF A THREAT.
MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE UPPER
TROUGH. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE FA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES LESSEN TO 6
TO 6.5 C/KM...MLCAPES REMAIN VERY HIGHS WITH UP TO 4000 J/KG
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS AS
UPPER JET ENDS UP PUTTING FA IN EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED 100+ KT JET MAX OVER SRN ONTARIO. BOTH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD TO THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS.
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER
WHICH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR MOST FIELDS...POPULATED GRIDDED DATABASE WITH 50/50 BLEND OF 18Z
HPC GUIDANCE AND GMOS.
THU-THU NT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL COLD POOL
SHOULD PASS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THIS COMBINATION OF
SHALLOW INSTABILITY...AND SOME FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC
LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSAGE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CLEARING SKIES LATE THU INTO THU NT. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPS...WITH MAXES REACHING 70-75 IN VALLEYS...AND 60S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS MOST LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE 50S. FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...EXPECT 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FRI-SUN...MOST 00Z/28 DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AS WELL AS THE
GEFS...INDICATE A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
TRACKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH SOME HINTS OF A SECONDARY SFC WAVE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
E OF THE APPALACHIANS...ALONG OR JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING. IT
APPEARS...BASED ON OVERALL CONSENSUS...THAT BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SHOWERS SHOULD BE FRI NT OR SAT. WILL INDICATE
CHC POPS BY LATE FRI...AND HIGH CHC FRI NT INTO SAT...TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC BY SUNDAY. DAYTIME MAXES SHOULD BE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE
TO...OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...WITH
MINS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
STILL DEALING WITH IFR CIGS AT KPOU. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE
THIS AREA OF STRATUS SHRINKING SO WE ADDED A TEMPO UNTIL 15Z.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO S BY LATE MORNING...AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY S AT LESS THAN 8 KT
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY TSTMS.
TUE...VFR/MVFR. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MVFR/IFR IMPROVING TO VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA IN THE AM.
THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHOWERS ESP IN AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY...PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY...PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION PWATS RISE TO BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING CELLS AND SOME BACKBUILDING CELLS. WHILE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS MAY HAVE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE WHICH
OCCURRED SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...IN THIS
CASE IT WAS IN JUST OVER AND HOUR. THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING WOULD
BE THE MAJOR CONCERN...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF OCCURRENCE DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A WATCH AT
THIS TIME AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS FORECAST FOR TODAY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 28TH...
ALBANY NY:
91 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1911
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1820
GLENS FALLS:
88 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1998 (AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944
POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
90 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1977
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
FOR MORE GO TO OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/LOCAL_DATA.PHP?WFO=ALY
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NO UPPER AIR FLIGHTS FROM ALBANY FOR 00Z/MONDAY AND 12Z/MONDAY. THE
SIGNAL PROCESSING SYSTEM FAILED AND PARTS ARE ON EMERGENCY ORDER. WE
HOPE TO HAVE A 00Z/TUESDAY UPPER AIR FLIGHT.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...IAA
EQUIPMENT...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY...PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...CONTINUE TO FOLLOW AN MCS WORKING TOWARD OUR
ADIRONDACKS...BUT WEAKENING.
SPC GUIDANCE INDICATED ANY REAL SURFACE INSTABILITY WAS WELL SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
STEEP...UP TO 7C/KM...AS A EML MOVES OVER THE REGION LATER ON.
DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE 50S FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...BUT JUMP TO
THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH AND EVEN EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
(BERKSHIRES INCLUDED).
UNFORTUNATELY MUCH OF THE MESO SCALE MODELS WERE NOT OF MUCH
ASSISTANCE...FAILING TO INITIALIZE THE MCS. THE LATEST HRRR FINALLY
HAS LOCKED ONTO IT. THE 12Z NAM HOWEVER...STILL DID NOT DEPICT THE
FEATURE! SPC WRF DID APPEAR TO CAPTURE THE MCS BUT LOOKED A LITTLE
SLOW AND NORTH WITH ITS PROGRESS.
A WARM FRONT WAS PERCHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
APPEARS TO BE IN NO HURRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
IT LOOKS AS IF THE MOST ENERGETIC PORTION OF THE MCS WAS IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING SOUTHWARD...WITH THE WEAKENING PORTION HEADING
INTO OUR AREA WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND AND WE BELIEVE THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS AS
WELL AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER ON.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE SYNOPTIC FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS. SINCE IT
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WE NOW BELIEVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION MIGHT ACTUALLY BE
THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY..LITCHFIELD COUNTY INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT REALLY ANY AREA IS STILL FAIR GAME FOR DEVELOPMENT
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO OVER
1000 J/KG NORTH...AND 2000 J/KG SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.
DID NOT TINKER WITH THE GRIDS FROM 18Z ON. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKED
REASONABLE BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN (UNFORTUNATELY WITHOUT THE
ASSISTANCE OF OUR RAOB WHICH IS STILL OTS). LOOKS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES 85-90 VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...80-85
HIGHER TERRAIN. TO THE NORTH ALBANY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S VALLEY LOCATIONS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
MUCH OF THE FA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR OLD FORGE AND
BRATTLEBORO AT 00Z TO NORTHEAST VERMONT AND SOUTHEAST MAINE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TO 7 TO 8 C/KM. IN ADDITION 0-3 KM HELICITIES REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN
200 AND 400 M2/S2 ACRS NE THIRD OF FA. THUS SUPERCELLS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. THE WBZ HEIGHTS START TO DROP TO BTWN 8 AND 10 KFT SO
LARGE HAIL ALSO BECOMES MORE OF A THREAT.
MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE UPPER
TROUGH. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE FA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES LESSEN TO 6
TO 6.5 C/KM...MLCAPES REMAIN VERY HIGHS WITH UP TO 4000 J/KG
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS AS
UPPER JET ENDS UP PUTTING FA IN EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED 100+ KT JET MAX OVER SRN ONTARIO. BOTH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD TO THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS.
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER
WHICH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR MOST FIELDS...POPULATED GRIDDED DATABASE WITH 50/50 BLEND OF 18Z
HPC GUIDANCE AND GMOS.
THU-THU NT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL COLD POOL
SHOULD PASS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THIS COMBINATION OF
SHALLOW INSTABILITY...AND SOME FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC
LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSAGE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CLEARING SKIES LATE THU INTO THU NT. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPS...WITH MAXES REACHING 70-75 IN VALLEYS...AND 60S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS MOST LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE 50S. FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS...EXPECT 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FRI-SUN...MOST 00Z/28 DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AS WELL AS THE
GEFS...INDICATE A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
TRACKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH SOME HINTS OF A SECONDARY SFC WAVE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
E OF THE APPALACHIANS...ALONG OR JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING. IT
APPEARS...BASED ON OVERALL CONSENSUS...THAT BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SHOWERS SHOULD BE FRI NT OR SAT. WILL INDICATE
CHC POPS BY LATE FRI...AND HIGH CHC FRI NT INTO SAT...TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC BY SUNDAY. DAYTIME MAXES SHOULD BE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE
TO...OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...WITH
MINS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
STILL DEALING WITH IFR CIGS AT KPOU. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE
THIS AREA OF STRATUS SHRINKING SO WE ADDED A TEMPO UNTIL 15Z.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT MVFR IN ANY
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO S BY LATE MORNING...AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY S AT LESS THAN 8 KT
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY TSTMS.
TUE...VFR/MVFR. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MVFR/IFR IMPROVING TO VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA IN THE AM.
THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHOWERS ESP IN AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY...PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY...PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...A WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION PWATS RISE TO BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING CELLS AND SOME BACKBUILDING CELLS. WHILE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS MAY HAVE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE WHICH
OCCURRED SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...IN THIS
CASE IT WAS IN JUST OVER AND HOUR. THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING WOULD
BE THE MAJOR CONCERN...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF OCCURRENCE DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A WATCH AT
THIS TIME AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NO UPPER AIR FLIGHTS FROM ALBANY FOR 00Z/MONDAY AND 12Z/MONDAY. THE
SIGNAL PROCESSING SYSTEM FAILED AND PARTS ARE ON EMERGENCY ORDER. WE
HOPE TO HAVE A 00Z/TUESDAY UPPER AIR FLIGHT.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
EQUIPMENT...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
AFTER 15Z...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
HIGH RES MODELS SHOW AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AROUND
18Z...SO HAVE S TO SE WINDS AT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
EVENINGS...MOST OF THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST AND METRO
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 40-55 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES LINE UP
WELL WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS
BEFORE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS BERYL CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TO THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
REGION MAINTAINING A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE
LOWER-LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DAYTIME HEATING
AND SUFFICIENT SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WITH THE PRIMARY FLOW THROUGH
THE DEEP LAYER REMAINING OUT OF THE SW...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE LOCAL AREA EACH DAY.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ONE DIFFERENCE TO NOTE FOR THIS PERIOD
IS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SPREADING
NORTH ACROSS THE KEYS AND THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS INCREASE
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD THURSDAY. MODEL PWAT VALUES
REFLECT THIS PATTERN AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA OR FROM THE LAKE TO THE KEYS WITH THE
HIGHER PWAT VALUES REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THIS AREA (UP
TO 2.2 INCHES). AS A RESULT...WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE THE
RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THESE
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY-WEEKEND)...
MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INDICATE THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH
INTO THE LOCAL AREA WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST HPC 5 DAY PRECIP FORECAST INDICATES
TOTALS REACHING THE 2-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
PENINSULA. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY BECOMES CONCENTRATED.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL TRANSLATE TO CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST.
FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL RED FLAG LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 89 74 88 / 20 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 90 76 88 / 20 40 20 50
MIAMI 75 90 75 89 / 20 40 20 50
NAPLES 74 89 74 89 / 10 20 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.AVIATION...
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSH JUST WEST OF THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST EAST OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 21Z FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT FOR THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18Z BEFORE DECREASING
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS KPBI...KFLL...AND
KFXE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS FOR THESE
TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z
FOR REDUCTIONS OF VIS AND CEILING DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR KMIA...KOPF...AND KTMB THERE SHOULD
ONLY BE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO WILL CONTINUE
THE VCSH FOR THESE TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z.
AFTER 03Z...THE WEATHER SHOULD GO DRY SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
WEATHER AT ALL OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 3Z TONIGHT. KAPF
TAF SITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/
UPDATE...
ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE THIS MORNING BASED ON THE
MORNING ANALYSIS AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MORNING VAPOR
LOOP SHOWED A DRY SLOT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING OVER N/CENTRAL FL ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT
MFL...WHICH INDICATED PWAT VALUES DOWN FROM 1.68 LAST NIGHT TO
1.27 INCHES THIS MORNING. PRIMARY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW TODAY...WHICH FAVORS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...OR
ANYWHERE FROM INLAND MIAMI-DADE TO PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE LATEST
WRF AND HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT LINES UP WELL THIS GENERAL
PATTERN AND INDICATES MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION INITIATING
AROUND AND AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
PERIOD BEFORE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS AS
TYPICALLY OBSERVED. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS (WINDEX IN THE 40 TO 60
MPH RANGE)...SMALL HAIL AND PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A
RESULT...WE HAVE SLIGHTLY TWEAKED THE RAINFALL PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY.
85/AG
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY. MEAN WEST-SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW SHOULD INTERACT WITH DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE
AGAIN, A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STEER ANY STORM TOWARD THE
EAST COAST CLOSE TO THE ERN TERMINALS. WL EXPECT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO KEEP KAPF FREE OF ANY STORM BY PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
INLAND.
&&
AVIATION...BNB/RGH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AS TROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUES ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK TODAY AND
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH AT MID-WEEK.
UNDER THIS REGIME...THE FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK IS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
MAINLY DURING THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WHICH WILL
FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS POSSIBLY
REACHING THE UPPER 80S EACH DAY BEFORE THE CONVECTION STARTS WITH
NEAR 90 TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN METRO AREAS.
FOR TODAY NEED TO EMPHASIZE THE CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN MAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVEN HOURS. ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ARE FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA AFFECTED. BUT THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE AND HELP TO MAINTAIN A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL. THIS COULD ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MARINE...
AS TROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUES ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK TODAY AND
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY...ITS PRESENCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA GULF AND ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TODAY INTO TUESDAY WITH GULF STREAM SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 88 74 88 / 30 40 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 89 76 89 / 30 40 30 40
MIAMI 76 89 75 89 / 30 40 30 40
NAPLES 74 88 73 88 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
913 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.UPDATE...
ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE THIS MORNING BASED ON THE
MORNING ANALYSIS AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MORNING VAPOR
LOOP SHOWED A DRY SLOT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING OVER N/CENTRAL FL ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT
MFL...WHICH INDICATED PWAT VALUES DOWN FROM 1.68 LAST NIGHT TO
1.27 INCHES THIS MORNING. PRIMARY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW TODAY...WHICH FAVORS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...OR
ANYWHERE FROM INLAND MIAMI-DADE TO PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE LATEST
WRF AND HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT LINES UP WELL THIS GENERAL
PATTERN AND INDICATES MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION INITIATING
AROUND AND AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
PERIOD BEFORE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS AS
TYPICALLY OBSERVED. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS (WINDEX IN THE 40 TO 60
MPH RANGE)...SMALL HAIL AND PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A
RESULT...WE HAVE SLIGHTLY TWEAKED THE RAINFALL PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY.
85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY. MEAN WEST-SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW SHOULD INTERACT WITH DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE
AGAIN, A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STEER ANY STORM TOWARD THE
EAST COAST CLOSE TO THE ERN TERMINALS. WL EXPECT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO KEEP KAPF FREE OF ANY STORM BY PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
INLAND.
AVIATION...BNB/RGH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AS TROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUES ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK TODAY AND
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH AT MID-WEEK.
UNDER THIS REGIME...THE FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK IS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
MAINLY DURING THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WHICH WILL
FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS POSSIBLY
REACHING THE UPPER 80S EACH DAY BEFORE THE CONVECTION STARTS WITH
NEAR 90 TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN METRO AREAS.
FOR TODAY NEED TO EMPHASIZE THE CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN MAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVEN HOURS. ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ARE FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA AFFECTED. BUT THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE AND HELP TO MAINTAIN A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL. THIS COULD ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MARINE...
AS TROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUES ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK TODAY AND
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY...ITS PRESENCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA GULF AND ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TODAY INTO TUESDAY WITH GULF STREAM SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 74 88 74 / 50 30 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 76 89 76 / 20 30 40 30
MIAMI 87 76 89 75 / 20 30 40 30
NAPLES 88 74 88 73 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
950 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.UPDATE...
I HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS OVER NORTHWEST COUNTIES
AS LINE OF STORMS MOVE OUT OF TENNESSEE...AND LOWERED POPS
SOUTHEAST AS BERYL CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE NORTHEAST. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
49
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
.CONTINUED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN BANDS FROM REMNANTS OF BERYL...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL HAS NOW ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA
MOVING FROM TELFAIR COUNTY INTO WHEELER. EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM
HAS DEFINITELY BEEN THE WETTEST IN THE THIS STORMS HISTORY AND
TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT WITH FEEDER BANDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
PROVIDING THE MOST CONSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
LOCALLY ENHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL DUE TO ENHANCED CLOUD COVER. STILL THINKING THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE CONVECTIVE BANDS SET UP THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT
925MB...AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. HAVE JUST NOT HAD THE
INSTABILITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SHEAR PROFILE THUS FAR BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CELLS CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN CELLS
OR ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS.
SEPARATE ARE OVER MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING DISSIPATED FOR THE
MOST PART AS IT MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF ALABAMA. HRRR STILL KEYING
IN ON NW GEORGIA FOR POSSIBLE LATE TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE KEPT
LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF BERYL...SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR TO WORK ITS
WAY IN WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A PROFILE BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF CU
FORMATION IN THE AFTERNOON FROM ATL NORTHWARD. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW END SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEESE
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TD BERYL PULLS OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW KEEPS RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE STATE FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EAST OF THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH
2000-2500 CAPE...40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE
AND INCH OR LESS. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
01
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
BERYL PUSHING NORTHEAST WITH OUTER BANDS OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA APPEARS TO WEAKENING SOME BUT MAY
SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM APPROACH NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT NOT
READY TO PUT IN TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE. ALSO WATCHING SECOND LINE PUSHING ACROSS TENNESSEE...WHICH
HRRR SHOWS SOME OF THIS MAKING IT CLOSE TO ATLANTA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT MAY
SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CLDS AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. VSBYS GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED...BUT BRIEFLY LOWERING INTO
THE MVFR RANGE AT MCN AND AHN 09-13Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOWING
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT FEW CU AROUND 5
THSD FT POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 8 KTS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EVENING...SHIFTING TO THE N-NW MOST SITES BY 09Z.
49
//ATL
CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 91 61 93 / 40 20 10 30
ATLANTA 68 90 66 90 / 20 20 10 30
BLAIRSVILLE 60 85 57 84 / 60 10 5 40
CARTERSVILLE 63 92 58 91 / 50 10 5 50
COLUMBUS 69 93 68 92 / 20 30 20 30
GAINESVILLE 65 91 64 90 / 30 20 5 40
MACON 67 92 62 94 / 40 30 20 30
ROME 66 93 58 91 / 60 10 5 50
PEACHTREE CITY 64 90 60 90 / 20 20 10 30
VIDALIA 70 90 69 94 / 60 30 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
807 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
..CONTINUED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN BANDS FROM REMNANTS OF BERYL...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL HAS NOW ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA
MOVING FROM TELFAIR COUNTY INTO WHEELER. EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM
HAS DEFINITELY BEEN THE WETTEST IN THE THIS STORMS HISTORY AND
TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT WITH FEEDER BANDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
PROVIDING THE MOST CONSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
LOCALLY ENHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL DUE TO ENHANCED CLOUD COVER. STILL THINKING THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE CONVECTIVE BANDS SET UP THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT
925MB...AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. HAVE JUST NOT HAD THE
INSTABILITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SHEAR PROFILE THUS FAR BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CELLS CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN CELLS
OR ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS.
SEPARATE ARE OVER MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING DISSIPATED FOR THE
MOST PART AS IT MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF ALABAMA. HRRR STILL KEYING
IN ON NW GEORGIA FOR POSSIBLE LATE TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE KEPT
LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF BERYL...SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR TO WORK ITS
WAY IN WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A PROFILE BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF CU
FORMATION IN THE AFTERNOON FROM ATL NORTHWARD. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW END SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEESE
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TD BERYL PULLS OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW KEEPS RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE STATE FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EAST OF THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH
2000-2500 CAPE...40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE
AND INCH OR LESS. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
BERYL PUSHING NORTHEAST WITH OUTER BANDS OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA APPEARS TO WEAKENING SOME BUT MAY
SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM APPROACH NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT NOT
READY TO PUT IN TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE. ALSO WATCHING SECOND LINE PUSHING ACROSS TENNESSEE...WHICH
HRRR SHOWS SOME OF THIS MAKING IT CLOSE TO ATLANTA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT MAY
SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CLDS AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. VSBYS GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED...BUT BRIEFLY LOWERING INTO
THE MVFR RANGE AT MCN AND AHN 09-13Z TIME FRAME. MODELS SHOWING
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT FEW CU AROUND 5
THSD FT POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 8 KTS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EVENING...SHIFTING TO THE N-NW MOST SITES BY 09Z.
49
//ATL
CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 91 61 93 / 50 20 10 30
ATLANTA 68 90 66 90 / 20 20 10 30
BLAIRSVILLE 60 85 57 84 / 50 10 5 40
CARTERSVILLE 63 92 58 91 / 30 10 5 50
COLUMBUS 69 93 68 92 / 20 30 20 30
GAINESVILLE 65 91 64 90 / 20 20 5 40
MACON 67 92 62 94 / 40 30 20 30
ROME 66 93 58 91 / 50 10 5 50
PEACHTREE CITY 64 90 60 90 / 20 20 10 30
VIDALIA 70 90 69 94 / 100 30 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
153 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE AS POP
GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SHARP GRADIENT GRADUALLY EXPANDING
AS RAIN BANDS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM CENTER. FIRST SUCH BAND
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST AT THIS HOUR AND WITH SOME
HEATING...ALTHOUGH LIMITED BY ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR SOUTHEAST CORNER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
BIGGER QUESTIONS BECOMES HOW FAR NORTH SHOWERS MAKE IT THIS
AFTERNOON. RAP FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS NOT SHOWING MUCH SURFACE BASED
CAPE INCREASE AND SHOULD ONLY SEE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG OVER A
SMALL SECTION OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. HRRR IS REALLY THE ONLY MODEL
BULLISH ABOUT BRING RAINBAND SHOWERS INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND FEEL
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED LOW END CHANCE GRIDS HANDLE THIS WELL. WILL
UPDATE WIND FIELDS BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE WILL HOLD
WITH WHAT WE HAVE GRID WISE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/
GUSTY WINDS OVER AREAS SOUTH OF I-85 AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM TROPICAL STORM
BERYL TODAY...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IMPACT OF TS BERYL
WHICH MADE LANDFALL NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AROUND MIDNIGHT. OUTER
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH SOME SE COUNTIES WITH SOME GUSTS OF
20 TO 25KTS BUT THIS BAND HAS DISSIPATED WITH GUSTS BACK DOWN TO
20KTS OR LESS. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF BERYL
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-85 WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH
APPROACHING 35 MPH SOUTH AND EAST OF MACON...JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LATEST HPC QPF CONTINUES DOWNWARD TREND OF AMOUNTS OF SOUTHERN
CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM ALSO KEEP BULK OF
PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY THOUGH 00Z GFS AND 21Z SREF DO
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. BY
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL VERY LIKELY BE CONTAINED NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHERE OVER FAR S GA AT
THAT TIME. TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT SWEEPING IN WITH THE HELP OF FAIRLY STRONG
WESTERLIES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MIDWEST. HAVE KEPT POPS IN CHC
TO LKLY CATEGORY BUT COULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE FCST
PROGRESSES.
TWEAKED TEMPS BASED ON RECENT 30 DAY BIASES AND EXPECTATIONS FOR
LOWER DIURNAL RANGES DUE TO TS BERYL. MIN TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE RECENTLY /CURRENT TEMPS STILL IN LOW TO MID
70S...ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGS HIGHER THAN 12Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE FCST
FOR THIS TIME/. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIRMASS
MOVES THROUGH.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE STATE ALONG THE SC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS MOVEMENT...WITH A DRIER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN ITS WAKE ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
STILL ACROSS THE STATE. RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON AN UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY KICKING EAST OF THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY
AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH 2000-2500 CAPE...40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MODELS SHOW CLEARING
CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.
39
FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-85 WILL APPROACH FIRE DANGER
CRITERIA TODAY. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD MITIGATE ANY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE PRECIP BECOMES MORE
CONCENTRATED AROUND TS BERYL LEAVING THINGS HIGH AND DRY IN MIDDLE
GA. FUELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY LOW.
HYDROLOGY...
MAX RAINFALL IN SE PARTS OF CWA NOW FCST TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 2
INCHES. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND CORRESPONDING HIGH FFG
VALUES OF 4 TO 5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY TYPE
OF FLOOD WATCH. PRECIP WITH OUTER BAND THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER
THIS MORNING ONLY PRODUCED A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH SO FAR.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL CONTINUES ITS TRACK
INLAND...RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND
INCREASING COVERAGE AIDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON HEATING. EXPECTING
SHRA TO AFFECT AHN AND MCN FIRST WITH BRIEF GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH
EACH BAND. DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT WILL MAKE IT A LATER START
FOR THE ATL SITES BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SHORT TERM TEMPO THERE FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS STORM PIVOTS NE TONIGHT...RAIN AXIS WILL
SET UP BETWEEN MCN AND AHN WITH PREDOMINANT SHRA THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE FOR ALL SITES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA/TSRA TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 87 69 86 67 / 40 30 60 40
ATLANTA 86 71 85 70 / 30 30 50 20
BLAIRSVILLE 84 66 82 63 / 30 30 60 40
CARTERSVILLE 88 68 88 67 / 20 20 40 20
COLUMBUS 88 71 89 71 / 50 30 40 20
GAINESVILLE 85 69 85 67 / 30 30 60 30
MACON 87 71 86 68 / 50 40 60 30
ROME 90 68 89 67 / 20 20 40 20
PEACHTREE CITY 86 68 85 67 / 40 30 40 20
VIDALIA 84 72 83 70 / 80 70 70 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1011 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE AS POP
GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SHARP GRADIENT GRADUALLY EXPANDING
AS RAIN BANDS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM CENTER. FIRST SUCH BAND
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST AT THIS HOUR AND WITH SOME
HEATING...ALTHOUGH LIMITED BY ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR SOUTHEAST CORNER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
BIGGER QUESTIONS BECOMES HOW FAR NORTH SHOWERS MAKE IT THIS
AFTERNOON. RAP FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS NOT SHOWING MUCH SURFACE BASED
CAPE INCREASE AND SHOULD ONLY SEE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG OVER A
SMALL SECTION OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. HRRR IS REALLY THE ONLY MODEL
BULLISH ABOUT BRING RAINBAND SHOWERS INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND FEEL
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED LOW END CHANCE GRIDS HANDLE THIS WELL. WILL
UPDATE WIND FIELDS BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE WILL HOLD
WITH WHAT WE HAVE GRID WISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/
.GUSTY WINDS OVER AREAS SOUTH OF I-85 AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM TROPICAL STORM
BERYL TODAY...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IMPACT OF TS BERYL
WHICH MADE LANDFALL NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL AROUND MIDNIGHT. OUTER
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH SOME SE COUNTIES WITH SOME GUSTS OF
20 TO 25KTS BUT THIS BAND HAS DISSIPATED WITH GUSTS BACK DOWN TO
20KTS OR LESS. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF BERYL
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-85 WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH
.APPROACHING 35 MPH SOUTH AND EAST OF MACON...JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LATEST HPC QPF CONTINUES DOWNWARD TREND OF AMOUNTS OF SOUTHERN
CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM ALSO KEEP BULK OF
PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY THOUGH 00Z GFS AND 21Z SREF DO
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. BY
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL VERY LIKELY BE CONTAINED NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHERE OVER FAR S GA AT
THAT TIME. TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT SWEEPING IN WITH THE HELP OF FAIRLY STRONG
WESTERLIES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MIDWEST. HAVE KEPT POPS IN CHC
TO LKLY CATEGORY BUT COULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE FCST
PROGRESSES.
TWEAKED TEMPS BASED ON RECENT 30 DAY BIASES AND EXPECTATIONS FOR
LOWER DIURNAL RANGES DUE TO TS BERYL. MIN TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE RECENTLY /CURRENT TEMPS STILL IN LOW TO MID
70S...ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGS HIGHER THAN 12Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE FCST
FOR THIS TIME/. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIRMASS
MOVES THROUGH.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE STATE ALONG THE SC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS MOVEMENT...WITH A DRIER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN ITS WAKE ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
STILL ACROSS THE STATE. RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON AN UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY KICKING EAST OF THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY
AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH 2000-2500 CAPE...40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MODELS SHOW CLEARING
CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.
39
FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-85 WILL APPROACH FIRE DANGER
CRITERIA TODAY. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD MITIGATE ANY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE PRECIP BECOMES MORE
CONCENTRATED AROUND TS BERYL LEAVING THINGS HIGH AND DRY IN MIDDLE
GA. FUELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY LOW.
HYDROLOGY...
MAX RAINFALL IN SE PARTS OF CWA NOW FCST TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 2
INCHES. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND CORRESPONDING HIGH FFG
VALUES OF 4 TO 5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY TYPE
OF FLOOD WATCH. PRECIP WITH OUTER BAND THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER
THIS MORNING ONLY PRODUCED A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH SO FAR.
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SAT IMAGERY MORE CLEARLY SHOWING STRATUS THIS MORNING...SEVERAL
HOLES APPEARANT ESP OVER EAST CENTRAL GA. STRATUS WITH 1500FT CIGS
SHOULD APPROACH ATL METRO AIRPORTS BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE PERIODS OF SCT COVERAGE UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN SHOULD
SEE BKN CU DECK AROUND 4000FT. TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PERIPHERY OF
BERYL SHOULD MOSTLY AFFECT MIDDLE GA BUT ISOLD TSRA STILL LIKELY
OVER MUCH OF NORTH GA. DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLD COVERAGE...WILL NOT
BE ABLE TO ADD TEMPO TO AFTERNOON FCST AT THIS TIME.
SNELSON
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND SKY COVER THIS MORNING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 87 69 86 67 / 40 30 60 40
ATLANTA 86 71 85 70 / 30 30 50 20
BLAIRSVILLE 84 66 82 63 / 30 30 60 40
CARTERSVILLE 88 68 88 67 / 20 20 40 20
COLUMBUS 88 71 89 71 / 50 30 40 20
GAINESVILLE 85 69 85 67 / 30 30 60 30
MACON 87 71 86 68 / 50 40 60 30
ROME 90 68 89 67 / 20 20 40 20
PEACHTREE CITY 86 68 85 67 / 40 30 40 20
VIDALIA 84 72 83 70 / 80 70 70 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1007 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.DISCUSSION...
900 PM CDT
GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES. THE 00Z
REGIONAL ROABS...PARTICULARLY AT DVN...INDICATED THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXED TO AROUND 750 MB TUESDAY UNDER A NOTABLE DRY INTRUSION ON
WATER VAPOR. THE MIXING OF THE SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS NOT STARTED
TO RECOVER THIS EVENING...IN FACT SEVERAL PLACES HAVE DROPPED A
FEW DEGREES IN THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW. THE HEART OF THE CLOSED CELL
CU ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES WAS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA STILL UNDER THE HEART OF THE COLDER AIR AND MID-LEVEL VORT
LOBES. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THEN AND INTO THE EARLY IR IMAGERY OF
TONIGHT DID/DO NOT INDICATE THIS READILY MAKING IT TOWARD THE
IL/WI STATE LINE. RAP FORECASTS OF 850-800 MB RH FOLLOW THIS
TREND. SO WHILE SOME CONTINUAL MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING FAST...THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST KEEP DROPPING AND MINS TO FALL OUT NEAR
THE GOING FORECAST OF AROUND 50 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES WITH MID
50S IN THE HEART OF CHICAGOLAND. THIS WILL BE THE THE COOLEST
NIGHT IN A WEEK.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT
VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE BACK END OF THE CIRRUS PUSHING EAST
FROM SOUTHEAST MI STRETCHING SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL. TO THE
WEST OF THIS AREA GOOD LLVL MIXING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTN AND
ALLOWED FOR ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE TO FURTHER DRY THE NEAR SFC
ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. THE COMBINATION OF
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS AT TIMES GUSTING IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...HAS
ALLOWED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES ARND 20 PERCENT. THIS IS MAINLY FALLING
BETWEEN THE I-88 AND I-80 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN IL. NORTH OF THIS
AND RH VALUES HOVER ARND 30 PERCENT...TO THE SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIGHTER.
AFTN TEMPS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH TEMPS UPSTREAM
ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHWEST WISC REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S. IN
ADDITION DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA.
EXPECT AS WE LOSE THE SUNLIGHT THE CU FIELD WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. THE COMBINATION OF MINIMAL CLOUDS...DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW/MID 40S...AND A 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF 6 TO 8 DEG C WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE TEMPS COULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
THE 500MB WAVE QUICKLY PIVOTS EAST FOR WED AS THE MID-LVL FLOW
BEGINS TO FLATTEN. GENERALLY THIS WOULD AID IN AN EFFICIENT
WEST-EAST FLOW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD
WED WILL SLOW AS DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY LONGER. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY WED...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES THUR.
MID-LVL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HOW WARM
THE SFC GETS. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF I-80. SOUTH
OF I-80 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 70...MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
THE FOCUS FOR WED NGT WILL BE ON THE DRY AIR THAT APPEARS TO REMAIN
OVERHEAD AND THE DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW. BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHARPEN ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY STRETCHING NORTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL IA. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR WED NGT WILL BE ON THE GRADUAL
SATURATION OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID-LVLS. AT
THIS TIME WED NGT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER SEVERAL
SREF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST PRECIP MAY
PENETRATE THE DRY LYR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK THUR. HAVE OPTED TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS SCENARIO AND BROUGHT IN LGT RAIN AFT
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED WILL HINGE UPON THE TIMING OF THE
RETURNING MOISTURE ALOFT AND HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN. AT THIS
TIME FEEL CONFIDENT TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO COOL INTO THE MID/UPR 40S.
GIVEN THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DEMONSTRATE SOME DEGREE OF
STRENGTHENING...THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION. IF
THE SYSTEM INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED THEN TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
COOL AS EFFICIENTLY AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A FEW PARAMETERS WITH THE CUTOFF LOW AND TIMING OF
PRECIP...HOWEVER NOISE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE REMAINS GIVEN THE
STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE LOW LEVELS.
FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWFA BY MIDDAY
THUR...AS THE CUTOFF SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. ANTI-CYCLONIC
FLOW NOW APPEARS TO BE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY THUR
AFTN/EVE...AS A STEADY MOIST CONVEYOR ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN. EXPECT WELCOME RAINFALL TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF FRI. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...IT SHOULD LINGER THRU FRI EVE BEFORE SLIDING EAST FOR
SAT.
WITH THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OR SYSTEM TO EJECT THE CUTOFF
LOW EAST...THE DRY AIR MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL SAT EVENING OR PERHAPS
SUN. IN ADDITION TO THE WELCOME RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE
THE MUCH COOLER AIR THAT WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS THE REGION. MINIMAL
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH A VERY POTENT 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH AS TEMPS COOL TO ARND 0 DEG C. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE
EVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS TO COOL TO -2 TO -4 DEG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WISC. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THUR HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
ABOVE THE 50S. LOCATIONS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN WISC/IA/MN
MAY SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE LOW 50S. SO A COOL...RAINY REGIME LOOKS
LIKELY AT THIS TIME FOR THUR/FRI.
THEN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO PEEL NORTHEAST FOR SAT AND
EVENTUALLY SUN...TEMPS STEADILY WARM. WEST COAST RIDGING FINALLY
ARRIVES SUN AND WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. IN
ADDITION THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES FOR SUN/MON.
BEACHLER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
336 AM CDT
HAVE MAINTAINED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS HAVE LINED UP WELL WITH LOCATIONS BETWEEN
I-80 AND I-88 SEEING THE OPTIMAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE 20FT WINDS
EXCEEDING 20 MPH. WHILE WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY STRONGER TO
THE NORTH OF I-88 AND CLOSER TO WISCONSIN...THE RH VALUES HAVE
HOVERED AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THIS AREA. SOUTH OF I-80 WINDS ARE
NOT AS STRONG DESPITE SLIGHTLY LOWER RH VALUES CLOSER TO 20-24
PERCENT. THUS THE FIRE DANGER REMAINS ELEVATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED 10 HOUR FUELS TO
STEADILY DRY AND DESPITE THE GROWING VEGETATION...THERE DOES
STILL APPEAR TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR ANY WILDFIRES THAT START TO
SPREAD QUICKLY AND POTENTIALLY BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL THIS
AFTERNOON.
IZZI/BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO LESS THAN 20 KT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
* WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT BY MID AFTERNOON.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS PASSED OFF TO THE EAST...AND WINDS WILL
SLOWLY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
MAX WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH...AND STILL
EXPECTING WIND GUSTS TO DIMINISH COMPLETELY IN THE 02-03Z TIME
FRAME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST AN HOUR OR
TWO LONGER...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP PREVIOUS TIMING SINCE MIXING WILL
BE DECLINING AS THE SUN SETS...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
ALREADY WEAKENING OVERHEAD. EXPECTING TO SEE CIRRUS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SWATH OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE A BRIEF BKN VFR DECK
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD...THE VFR
CLOUD DECK MAY BE MORE SCT THAN BKN. FOR WINDS...NORTH NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER...EXPECTING WINDS TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT BY MID AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING A TYPICAL
LAKE BREEZE SCENARIO...BUT THE FLOP TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
ABRUPT. CIGS WILL ALSO RAISE TO CIRRUS LATE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...SHRA LIKELY...MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...MVFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA EARLY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO NORTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 20 KT
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WILL BE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW LATER ON
THURSDAY BEFORE SWITCHING MORE NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL
HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS LOW.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 25 TO AROUND
30 KT LATER THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
WHOLE LAKE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY.
THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY AND ABATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
903 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.DISCUSSION...
900 PM CDT
GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES. THE 00Z
REGIONAL ROABS...PARTICULARLY AT DVN...INDICATED THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXED TO AROUND 750 MB TUESDAY UNDER A NOTABLE DRY INTRUSION ON
WATER VAPOR. THE MIXING OF THE SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS NOT STARTED
TO RECOVER THIS EVENING...IN FACT SEVERAL PLACES HAVE DROPPED A
FEW DEGREES IN THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW. THE HEART OF THE CLOSED CELL
CU ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES WAS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA STILL UNDER THE HEART OF THE COLDER AIR AND MID-LEVEL VORT
LOBES. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THEN AND INTO THE EARLY IR IMAGERY OF
TONIGHT DID/DO NOT INDICATE THIS READILY MAKING IT TOWARD THE
IL/WI STATE LINE. RAP FORECASTS OF 850-800 MB RH FOLLOW THIS
TREND. SO WHILE SOME CONTINUAL MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING FAST...THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST KEEP DROPPING AND MINS TO FALL OUT NEAR
THE GOING FORECAST OF AROUND 50 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES WITH MID
50S IN THE HEART OF CHICAGOLAND. THIS WILL BE THE THE COOLEST
NIGHT IN A WEEK.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT
VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE BACK END OF THE CIRRUS PUSHING EAST
FROM SOUTHEAST MI STRETCHING SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL. TO THE
WEST OF THIS AREA GOOD LLVL MIXING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTN AND
ALLOWED FOR ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE TO FURTHER DRY THE NEAR SFC
ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. THE COMBINATION OF
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS AT TIMES GUSTING IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...HAS
ALLOWED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES ARND 20 PERCENT. THIS IS MAINLY FALLING
BETWEEN THE I-88 AND I-80 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN IL. NORTH OF THIS
AND RH VALUES HOVER ARND 30 PERCENT...TO THE SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIGHTER.
AFTN TEMPS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH TEMPS UPSTREAM
ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHWEST WISC REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S. IN
ADDITION DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA.
EXPECT AS WE LOSE THE SUNLIGHT THE CU FIELD WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. THE COMBINATION OF MINIMAL CLOUDS...DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW/MID 40S...AND A 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF 6 TO 8 DEG C WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE TEMPS COULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
THE 500MB WAVE QUICKLY PIVOTS EAST FOR WED AS THE MID-LVL FLOW
BEGINS TO FLATTEN. GENERALLY THIS WOULD AID IN AN EFFICIENT
WEST-EAST FLOW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD
WED WILL SLOW AS DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY LONGER. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY WED...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES THUR.
MID-LVL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HOW WARM
THE SFC GETS. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF I-80. SOUTH
OF I-80 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 70...MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
THE FOCUS FOR WED NGT WILL BE ON THE DRY AIR THAT APPEARS TO REMAIN
OVERHEAD AND THE DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW. BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHARPEN ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY STRETCHING NORTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL IA. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR WED NGT WILL BE ON THE GRADUAL
SATURATION OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID-LVLS. AT
THIS TIME WED NGT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER SEVERAL
SREF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST PRECIP MAY
PENETRATE THE DRY LYR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK THUR. HAVE OPTED TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS SCENARIO AND BROUGHT IN LGT RAIN AFT
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED WILL HINGE UPON THE TIMING OF THE
RETURNING MOISTURE ALOFT AND HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN. AT THIS
TIME FEEL CONFIDENT TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO COOL INTO THE MID/UPR 40S.
GIVEN THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DEMONSTRATE SOME DEGREE OF
STRENGTHENING...THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION. IF
THE SYSTEM INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED THEN TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
COOL AS EFFICIENTLY AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A FEW PARAMETERS WITH THE CUTOFF LOW AND TIMING OF
PRECIP...HOWEVER NOISE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE REMAINS GIVEN THE
STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE LOW LEVELS.
FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWFA BY MIDDAY
THUR...AS THE CUTOFF SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. ANTI-CYCLONIC
FLOW NOW APPEARS TO BE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY THUR
AFTN/EVE...AS A STEADY MOIST CONVEYOR ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN. EXPECT WELCOME RAINFALL TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF FRI. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...IT SHOULD LINGER THRU FRI EVE BEFORE SLIDING EAST FOR
SAT.
WITH THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OR SYSTEM TO EJECT THE CUTOFF
LOW EAST...THE DRY AIR MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL SAT EVENING OR PERHAPS
SUN. IN ADDITION TO THE WELCOME RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE
THE MUCH COOLER AIR THAT WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS THE REGION. MINIMAL
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH A VERY POTENT 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH AS TEMPS COOL TO ARND 0 DEG C. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE
EVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS TO COOL TO -2 TO -4 DEG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WISC. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THUR HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
ABOVE THE 50S. LOCATIONS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN WISC/IA/MN
MAY SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE LOW 50S. SO A COOL...RAINY REGIME LOOKS
LIKELY AT THIS TIME FOR THUR/FRI.
THEN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO PEEL NORTHEAST FOR SAT AND
EVENTUALLY SUN...TEMPS STEADILY WARM. WEST COAST RIDGING FINALLY
ARRIVES SUN AND WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. IN
ADDITION THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES FOR SUN/MON.
BEACHLER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
336 AM CDT
HAVE MAINTAINED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS HAVE LINED UP WELL WITH LOCATIONS BETWEEN
I-80 AND I-88 SEEING THE OPTIMAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE 20FT WINDS
EXCEEDING 20 MPH. WHILE WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY STRONGER TO
THE NORTH OF I-88 AND CLOSER TO WISCONSIN...THE RH VALUES HAVE
HOVERED AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THIS AREA. SOUTH OF I-80 WINDS ARE
NOT AS STRONG DESPITE SLIGHTLY LOWER RH VALUES CLOSER TO 20-24
PERCENT. THUS THE FIRE DANGER REMAINS ELEVATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED 10 HOUR FUELS TO
STEADILY DRY AND DESPITE THE GROWING VEGETATION...THERE DOES
STILL APPEAR TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR ANY WILDFIRES THAT START TO
SPREAD QUICKLY AND POTENTIALLY BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL THIS
AFTERNOON.
IZZI/BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH SUNSET.
* NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO LESS THAN 20 KT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
* WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT BY MID AFTERNOON.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS PASSED OFF TO THE EAST...AND WINDS WILL
SLOWLY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
MAX WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH...AND STILL
EXPECTING WIND GUSTS TO DIMINISH COMPLETELY IN THE 02-03Z TIME
FRAME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST AN HOUR OR
TWO LONGER...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP PREVIOUS TIMING SINCE MIXING WILL
BE DECLINING AS THE SUN SETS...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
ALREADY WEAKENING OVERHEAD. EXPECTING TO SEE CIRRUS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SWATH OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE A BRIEF BKN VFR DECK
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD...THE VFR
CLOUD DECK MAY BE MORE SCT THAN BKN. FOR WINDS...NORTH NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER...EXPECTING WINDS TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT BY MID AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING A TYPICAL
LAKE BREEZE SCENARIO...BUT THE FLOP TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
ABRUPT. CIGS WILL ALSO RAISE TO CIRRUS LATE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...SHRA LIKELY...MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...MVFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA EARLY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO NORTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 20 KT
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WILL BE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW LATER ON
THURSDAY BEFORE SWITCHING MORE NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL
HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS LOW.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 25 TO AROUND
30 KT LATER THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
WHOLE LAKE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY.
THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY AND ABATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
404 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
FOCUS ON HEAT INTO THIS EVENING AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG MIXING OF WARM LL TEMPS HAS ALLOWED FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA
TO CLIMB INTO THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...THIS
SAME MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT TO BE MIXED
DOWN...LOWERING DEWPTS INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 VS LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...PARTIALLY AS A
RESULT OF THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM BEST
DYNAMICS. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM ON THIS
FEATURE...BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANYTHING OTHER THAN SLGT CHC. HRRR MODEL
SHOWS SFC COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM WISCONSIN TO EASTERN IOWA...MAY
BEGIN TO CATCH UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS NEXT JET STREAK
APPROACHES. MOISTURE WAS POOLING BEHIND THE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH DEWPTS IN THE 64 TO NEARLY 70 DEGREE RANGE.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SW WARD ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE STORMS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 23 AND 1Z AND THEN WORK EAST FROM THERE. WITH LOSS
OF PEAK HEATING...SOME QUESTION AS TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
TONIGHT BUT ATTEMPT TO ADD MORE DETAIL ON TIMING. SVR CHANCES STILL
IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND CAPES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE WITH TIME AND BEST JET DYNAMICS TO PASS NW OF THE AREA. IF
A WELL ESTABLISHED LINE CAN MATERIALIZE...INCREASED CHANCES FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST WITH AT LEAST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD
IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR.
FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND ON POPS WITH DRY CONDITIONS NOW STARTING AT 15Z. MAIN
PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL STILL BE BEHIND A BIT BUT ARRIVE BY TUES NGT
ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DISPARAGING DETERMINISTIC MODEL RESPONSES
SUGGEST STRONG LEAN ONTO CONSISTENCY IN ORDER WRT LATER PDS. LEAN
TOWARD ECMWF WITH AT LEAST SOME RUN TO RUN SEMBLANCE. GEM STILL
APPEARS TO DIG NEXT SYSTEM /INTO EPAC ATTM/ TOO FAR SWD GOING INTO
DY4 WITH LATEST OP GFS AFFORDING MIDDLE OF ROAD APPROACH TO THE
AGAIN MORE FAVORED HIR BELTED ECMWF GIVEN OVERALL LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
PATTERN. SRN/SERN CWA REMAINS KEYED ON ISENT UPGLIDE WITH STRONG OH
VLY CYCLOGENESIS FOR HIEST POPS PEGGED SRN CWA THU NIGHT TO ERN CWA
AT LEAST ERLY FRI. THEREAFTER...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS WITH PIN-POINT OF
PSBL MCS TOPPING UPSTREAM LOW AMPED RIDGE TO LKLY REMAIN QUITE AN
ONEROUS TASK. PREFERENCE TO REMAIN DRY DYS5-7 IN MIDST OF ONSET OF
LOW END/ERLY STAGE DROUGHT UNTIL SIGNALS BECOME MORE EVIDENT.&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS MAIN FACTOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO PROVIDE POSSIBLE FOCI FOR STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE
STILL LOW...SO HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS UNTIL CLEARER SIGNALS APPEAR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR
ARRIVING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ007>009-017-018-
023>027-032>034.
MI...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.AVIATION...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
3-6 HOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHER BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING ANY TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO PUT IN ANY TERMINAL AREA
FORECAST. ANY STORM THAT OCCURS OVER A TERMINAL MAY CAUSE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY 29/00Z. CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS....PROBABLY MUCH LONGER.
NICHOLS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A LINE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING FROM MANCHESTER THROUGH CEDAR RAPIDS TO
JUST WEST OF FAIRFIELD WITH A SECOND LINE FROM WATERLOO TO
CENTERVILLE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE DIURNAL
WANING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED THETEA ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...WITH SUPPORT FROM A DISTINCT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DRY
SLOT LIFTING INTO SE AND EAST CENTRAL IA...WILL EXPECT AT LEAST A
COUPLE MORE HOURS OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN IA INTO FAR NW IL. LATEST RAP
AND HRRR HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THIS. THE LIMITED
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE HANDLED BY THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
NEW CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN WESTERN IA
WITH THE NEW UPPER AIR DATA AND MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
645 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A LINE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING FROM MANCHESTER THROUGH CEDAR RAPIDS TO
JUST WEST OF FAIRFIELD WITH A SECOND LINE FROM WATERLOO TO
CENTERVILLE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE DIURNAL
WANING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED THETEA ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...WITH SUPPORT FROM A DISTINCT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DRY
SLOT LIFTING INTO SE AND EAST CENTRAL IA...WILL EXPECT AT LEAST A
COUPLE MORE HOURS OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN IA INTO FAR NW IL. LATEST RAP
AND HRRR HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THIS. THE LIMITED
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE HANDLED BY THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
NEW CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN WESTERN IA
WITH THE NEW UPPER AIR DATA AND MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40 KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX
MORE UNIFORMLY WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED LLWS IN THE TAFS UNTIL 13Z. SCATTERED...HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING INTO EAST CENTRAL IA WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS BEFORE
17Z. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL VEER THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO WEST AND DIMINISH SPEEDS TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
920 PM MDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT TUE MAY 29 2012
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST NAM
AND RUC INDICATE ISENTROPIC UPGILDE INCREASING BTWN 9 AND 12Z
ALONG 305K SFC WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 12 G/KG REACHING AREA BY 12Z.
NAM/RUC/21Z SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING MUCAPES INCREASING
DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG NOTED
ON NAM AND SREF MEAN VALUES INCREASING 1500 J/KG. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THIS INSTABILITY BASED IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
CINH VALUES DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A LARGE AREA OF CWA
SEEING ELEVATED CINHS FALL BELOW 50 J/KG AFTER 09Z. MODELS DIFFER
GREATLY ON INITIATION POTENTIAL WITH THE LATEST NAM STARTING TO
INITIATE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ALTHOUGH OVERALL PATTERNS VERY
SIMILAR. THINK DECIDING FACTOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS. WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS ELEVATED
CINH VERY WEAK AT H8...BUT IF THINGS ADVECT IN SLOWER CINH WILL BE
MUCH STRONGER TONIGHT.
GIVEN OVERALL PATTERN AND AVAILABLE DATA...THINK INCREASING POPS
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WARRANTED DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
WITH ELEVATED CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG (POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG) THINK THERE IS A DECENT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL TONIGHT SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT TUE MAY 29 2012
THROUGH TONIGHT...PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE OVERNIGHT WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
ON THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KT H85 LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SOME QUESTION WITH REGARD TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENT DOES EXIST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE LOCATION OF THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL. THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION INITIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE KS/CO BORDER WHILE THE GFS/EC CONFINE THE THREAT TO
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
50KTS. ANTICIPATE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER
WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING A BIT LONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT TUE MAY 29 2012
500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN COOLER/DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GFS/NAM
INDICATE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THURSDAY SHOWS WIDE
VARIATION BETWEEN MODELS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE EASING...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOL AIR ALREADY IN PLACE TO KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL JET MAY DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...SO WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY.
A NUMBER OF WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MOST MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ONE OF THE WAVES...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN THE EXTENT OF THE
COVERAGE. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY BASED ON GFS LOCATION.
ZONAL FLOW OCCURS SUNDAY...AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...AND INDICATED SOME SMALL
CHANCE POPS AGAIN...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. MORE
VIGOROUS DYNAMICS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING
WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.
NUMERICAL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT TUE MAY 29 2012
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH STRONGEST ASCENT
GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH. ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WITH INHIBITION BECOMING FAIRLY WEAK BY 12Z.
HAVE INCLUDED A MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH LOCATIONS GIVEN THE
WEAK INHIBITION...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
PREVAILING GROUPS. IN ADDITION TO THUNDER CHANCES...INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THREAT FOR MORNING FOG AND STRATUS
ESPECIALLY ALONG WEST OF KS/CO BORDER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...FOLTZ
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE CONUS WAS A MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE SPINNING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL COLORADO
ROCKIES NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ABOUT A 90-100 KNOT JET
STREAK WITHIN THE CORE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA PER RAP ANALYSIS. THE
POLAR FRONT AT THE SURFACE TIED TO THIS STORM SYSTEM HAD PUSHED ALL
THE WAY INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHERE IT HAD STALLED OUT AND LOST
DEFINITION. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WAS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF KANSAS...BUT THE HIGH WAS QUITE WEAK WITH
ONLY A 1012MB CENTER. RICH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTINUED TO POOL
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE DECAYING FRONT IN NORTHWEST TEXAS WHERE
850MB DEWPOINTS WERE 15 TO 18C (DEWPOINT +17C AT KMAF AND KOUN ON
THE 12Z RAOB). A SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
TONIGHT:
THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS
GRIP WITH POST FRONTAL WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EASTERLY LATE
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE MID 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
LIKELY AFFECTING AREAS WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.
TOMORROW:
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE 850-750MB LAYER WILL INCREASE 12-18Z
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FORM. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS MODELS SUGGEST THIS IN THE
CONVECTIVE QPF FIELD AND MAKES REASONABLE SENSE...CONSIDERING THIS
AREA WOULD BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE INCOMING SUBTROPICAL
JET. WILL INCREASE THE POPS TO 20-35 PERCENT AND BEGIN THEM EARLIER
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME
SEVERE HAIL DURING THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME AS MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE WILL
BE QUITE HIGH (2000-3000 J/KG) GIVEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT MOVING
BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SHOULD THESE STORMS
MATERIALIZE...THEN THEY WILL LIKELY LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR
EVEN MORE ROBUST SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 00Z. BECAUSE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION
POSSIBILITY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY(IES)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
CHALLENGE GIVEN UNCERTAIN AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND THE COLD POOL
IN THE WAKE OF ANY STORMS. WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
UNCHANGED FOR NOW WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PROGRESSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT THROUGH KANSAS. HOWEVER, THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS STILL STRONGLY ZONAL, SO
IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TWO UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE SYSTEM WAS
APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE OTHER
WAS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. BY WEDNESDAY, THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE APPROACHING THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS, BUT AN
INVERTED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THIS LOW AS
PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPON THE APPROACH
OF THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO TEXAS, AND THEN ADVECT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SURFACE
LOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND THEN PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL. BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE ECMWF AND NAM
INDICATE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT
TROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. THUS, RAIN CHANCES WILL END LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
FRIDAY. BUT THERE WILL BE A COMPONENT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES, WHICH WILL TEND TO LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES AND BRING SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS. TYPICALLY, MID-LEVEL
CAPPING IS NOT VERY STRONG IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
THUS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH HIGH-END
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY IN THIS REGIME DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY, INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS COULD BRING A ROUND OR TWO
OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE HARD TO FORECAST FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD SINCE ANY STORM CLUSTERS COULD RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. BUT THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL
WARMING TREND FROM HIGHS IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO THE 90S
BY SUNDAY.
AFTER SUNDAY, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE WEST COAST, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE JET STREAM TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER, MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER HOT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
AS A SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS...NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTH TUESDAY MORNING APPROACHING FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SOUTHERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP DRAW THIS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRATUS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF GARDEN AND DODGE CITY...SO NO REDUCTION IN
CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY IS FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 85 60 87 / 10 20 10 50
GCK 53 81 59 86 / 10 10 10 50
EHA 53 85 57 86 / 0 10 10 30
LBL 55 86 59 87 / 10 10 10 40
HYS 53 81 58 85 / 10 20 20 40
P28 62 87 64 88 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE CONUS WAS A MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE SPINNING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL COLORADO
ROCKIES NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ABOUT A 90-100 KNOT JET
STREAK WITHIN THE CORE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA PER RAP ANALYSIS. THE
POLAR FRONT AT THE SURFACE TIED TO THIS STORM SYSTEM HAD PUSHED ALL
THE WAY INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHERE IT HAD STALLED OUT AND LOST
DEFINITION. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WAS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF KANSAS...BUT THE HIGH WAS QUITE WEAK WITH
ONLY A 1012MB CENTER. RICH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTINUED TO POOL
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE DECAYING FRONT IN NORTHWEST TEXAS WHERE
850MB DEWPOINTS WERE 15 TO 18C (DEWPOINT +17C AT KMAF AND KOUN ON
THE 12Z RAOB). A SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
TONIGHT:
THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS
GRIP WITH POST FRONTAL WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EASTERLY LATE
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE MID 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
LIKELY AFFECTING AREAS WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.
TOMORROW:
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE 850-750MB LAYER WILL INCREASE 12-18Z
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FORM. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS MODELS SUGGEST THIS IN THE
CONVECTIVE QPF FIELD AND MAKES REASONABLE SENSE...CONSIDERING THIS
AREA WOULD BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE INCOMING SUBTROPICAL
JET. WILL INCREASE THE POPS TO 20-35 PERCENT AND BEGIN THEM EARLIER
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME
SEVERE HAIL DURING THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME AS MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE WILL
BE QUITE HIGH (2000-3000 J/KG) GIVEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT MOVING
BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SHOULD THESE STORMS
MATERIALIZE...THEN THEY WILL LIKELY LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR
EVEN MORE ROBUST SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 00Z. BECAUSE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION
POSSIBILITY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY(IES)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
CHALLENGE GIVEN UNCERTAIN AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND THE COLD POOL
IN THE WAKE OF ANY STORMS. WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
UNCHANGED FOR NOW WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE IN A TRANSITION PERIOD HEADING
FROM TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS THE CLOSED MONTANA LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE A MID LEVEL
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME REPLACED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH EXTREME SW KS AND SE COLORADO. AS A
RESULT, A SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE
IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH MIGHT BE A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH
WEST OR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ANY CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE DIURNAL
IN NATURE, FOCUSED ON THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. FROM
THIS POINT FOREWORD, MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. FROM A MODEL
STANDPOINT, GIVEN THE UPPER JET ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND
BOUTS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE REGION, ORGANIZED CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THE GFS AND ECMWF PATTERNS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEEM TO SUPPORT A LONG LIVED MCS ACROSS KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY A SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING MCS WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAR LESS
ACTIVE. THE UPPER JET POSITION AND RIDGING PATTERN SHOULD LEAVE
WESTERN KANSAS MOSTLY DRY, WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THERE COULD BE A DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE LEFT OVER THROUGH FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY IF A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. FOG OVERNIGHT, AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE DAYTIME HOURS
ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH
ANY CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL
RUNS FOR. IT WOULD ALSO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON MAX AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. AS A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS ALOFT INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGHS TEMPERATURES TREND THROUGH THE UPPER 80S BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR TYPICAL HIGHER TERRAIN
HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS ANY GIVEN EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
TREND UPWARD AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING THICKNESS
PATTERNS; FROM THE 50S THROUGH THE MIDDLE 60`S BY LATE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
AS A SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS...NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTH TUESDAY MORNING APPROACHING FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SOUTHERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP DRAW THIS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRATUS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF GARDEN AND DODGE CITY...SO NO REDUCTION IN
CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY IS FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 85 60 87 / 10 20 10 50
GCK 53 81 59 86 / 10 10 10 50
EHA 53 85 57 86 / 0 10 10 30
LBL 55 86 59 87 / 10 10 10 40
HYS 53 81 58 85 / 10 20 20 40
P28 62 87 64 88 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
834 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PULL BERYL FARTHER UP THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY...BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW STRATO-CU FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SCOURED OUT NICELY
ACROSS CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.
T.D. BERYL REMAINS OVER SE GA THIS AFTERNOON. A COASTAL BOUNDARY
HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NC TO THE NE OF BERYL. THIS LINE HAS
MADE GOOD PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO NE NC RECENTLY AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN/SE VIRGINIA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS SE
SECTIONS...AT LEAST GETTING SCATTERED POPS 30-40% INTO SE VA.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE
COASTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND ADJUST POPS AS NECESSARY. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY CHC POPS (~30%) ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. OTW...THE
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST
WHICH HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH IT AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SHORT TERM
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR BRING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR
WESTERN/NW ZONES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME HIGH CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (50-60%) FOR NW AREAS THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. AS THE FRONT FROM THE
MIDWEST ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND DEEPER MOISTURE FROM BERYL BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION (AS BERYL MOVES UP THE SC COAST)...SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. WILL GO AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS AFTER 06Z. TEMPS WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATEST NHC TRACK HAS BERYL MOVING NE AND HUGGING THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE HEADING WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH BERYL WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE LOCAL
AREA...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN IT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (SOME HEAVY) ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST
PCPN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC (CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF
BERYL). HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS (60-80%) ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON (SAVE FOR NW
ZONES)...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS (20-40%) ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%)
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WED EVENING AS BERYL HEADS OUT TO SEA BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER BY SUNSET. MAX TEMPS
WED WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S.
QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH WED REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE
TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF BERYL. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES
1-2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF SE VA AND NE NC WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NE NC. PROBABLY LOOKING AT LESS THAN 1
INCH TO THE NW OF RICHMOND BUT ANY CHANGE IN TRACK COULD ALTER
THIS QUITE A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAIN IN THE HWO FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THE LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN
IN A RAIN DEFICIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS SO THE GROUND CAN
EASILY HANDLE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A RETURN OF DRY
WX. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND
SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL BE GOING CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPLY
WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF COLD FRNT PUSHING INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA FRI NGT THRU SAT MORNG. GOING WITH LIKELY POPS (60 PERCENT AT
THIS TIME) FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FM FRI EVENG INTO ERLY SAT MORNG
ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGHEST CHC POPS LINGER IN THE ENE CNTIES
SAT MORNG...OTHRWISE THE SKY SHOULD BECOME PRTLY OR MSTLY SNY THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HI PRES WILL THEN BE CNTRD OVR THE GULF CST
STATES AND FL FM SUN THRU TUE...WHILE WEAK TROFS...IN THE NRN STREAM
SWING THRU THE REGION SUN NGT...AND AGAIN MON NGT THRU TUE. AT THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE MORE CLDS FM SUN NGT THRU TUE...BUT KEEP THE FCST
DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S
MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S SAT AND SUN...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
80S MON AND TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING THE NW BORDERS OF
THE FA AS OF 00Z WED. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN...WINGS GUSTING TO 25 KT AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. THE LINE WILL IMPACT KRIC AND KSBY
INITIALLY...WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS MAKING ITS FORECAST ENE/NE TURN AT
THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS TRACK MAY BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KT FOR KECG AND POSSIBLY KORF. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TD WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA.
MVFR/IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN AND FOG
REDUCING VIS AND LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED AFTN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND BERYL
PUSHES OUT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THU BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
ADDED A SHORT TERM SCA FOR THE ENTIRE BAY AS THE SOUTHERLY SURGE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 20
KT AND SUSTAINED WINDS 16-18 KT. FURTHER MONITORING OF THIS SURGE
WILL BE NEEDED TO SEE IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH PAST 04Z WED.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA THRU LATE TNGT FOR THE CSTL WTRS FM FENWICK
ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT...DUE TO S WNDS INCREASING THE SEAS TO 5
FT. OTHRWISE...GOING CLSR TO THE NAM12 WNDS THRU 12Z WED...THEN WENT
WITH A COMBINATION OF NAM12 AND MOSGUIDE WNDS FM 15Z WED THRU THU
WITH REGARD TO THE MOVEMENT OF BERYL. WILL LIKELY NEED SCA FOR THE
SRN TWO CSTL WTRS...ESPLY FOR INCREASING SEAS...FM BERYL WED NGT
INTO ERLY THU. SW WNDS ON WED WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE ENE BY
LATE WED...THEN BECOME NE THEN NNW FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. HI
PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA THU INTO FRI. THEN...A COLD FRNT
APPROACHES FM THE W LATE FRI...THEN PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS LATE FRI
NGT THRU MIDDAY SAT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG/DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
717 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM NRN
ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. VORT MAX TRACKING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SCT -SHRA
ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTN. WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS (5700FT MSL ON
12Z KINL SOUNDING) MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY BEEN
PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL. SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL AROUND
WAKEFIELD EARLIER IN THE DAY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS VORT MAX SHIFTS E THIS EVENING AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST...THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN -SHRA WILL DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
ALONG WITH SFC TROF PASSING THRU THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
-RA/-SHRA THRU THE NIGHT GIVEN CURRENT UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS N AND
NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -3C MAY SEE
A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
ALSO...GIVEN THE SUBZERO C 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS
FALLING JUST UNDER 1305M...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE FROZEN PCPN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN (IT WAS
SNOWING AT CYPL THIS MORNING).
TEMPS WED WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. WITH THE 850MB
TROF OVER THE AREA...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THRU THE MORNING
HRS. ALSO...SOME LIGHT -RA/-SHRA WILL PROBABLY LINGER NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR IN THE MORNING. CLEARING WILL THEN BEGIN IN THE AFTN FROM
NW TO SE AS WAA STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE SUNNY BY LATE AFTN. TEMPS WILL
NOT GET OUT OF THE MID 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E OF KMQT UNDER CHILLY
AIR MASS AND GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. LOW/MID 50S WILL BE THE
RULE ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CWA ON WED NIGHT. NNE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH/DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH PWATS AROUND 40 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHER
RES MODELS TRYING TO KEEP LINGERING NW WINDS UP OVER THE ERN
CWA...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE COOLING IN THE MORE OPEN LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...WHERE LOWS WILL
BE 28-31...WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LKS SHORELINE. MORE THAN LIKELY WILL NEED FROST ADVISORY OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY A FREEZE WARNING OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. CURRENT FORECAST DOESN/T QUITE REACH A HARD FREEZE
CRITERIA...28 DEGREES FOR 3HRS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND DRIFTING SE ON THURS...EXPECT A
NICE DAY ACROSS UPPER MI WITH LK BREEZES AND DIURNAL CU THE MAIN
CONCERNS. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY LIMITED...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING
FROM LK BREEZES AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE
LK BREEZES. EXPECT LK BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG LK SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY AFTN...AND LEAD TO COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
GREAT LKS. BUT WITH THE SUN...SHOULD STILL SEE A QUICK WARM-UP FROM
THE FROSTY TEMPS TO START THE DAY. MIXING TO H800 WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS NOT INFLUENCED BY LK
BREEZES. FINALLY...COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BRUSHING THE WI BORDER
DURING THE AFTN AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE
UPPER/CNTRL MISS VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE NEXT CONCERN FOR
THE CWA HEADING INTO FRI.
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON THURS NIGHT WILL HELP
SHARPEN THE TROUGH AND PUSH THE LOW FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT
00Z FRI...NNE TO NEAR THE MACKINAC STRAITS AT 00Z SAT. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE LOW...WITH 12Z GFS
THE STRONGEST AND THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE FARTHER N 00Z ECMWF
AND THE WEAKER/SE TRACK OF THE 12Z NAM. PREFER A GENERAL
CONCENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS/GEM AND 00Z ECMWF...WHICH LOOKS MORE LIKE
SOMETHING THAT WOULD BE SEEN IN LATE WINTER OR EARLY SPRING. DUE
TO THE MORE ROBUST AND NORTHERN TRENDS IN THE MODELS OVER
THE LAST DAY...PREVIOUS SHIFT TRENDED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION ON
CLOUD/POPS. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE CWA ON FRI...AS THE BEST H850-700 WAA PUSHES NNE
THROUGH THE ERN CWA.
FOR THE EXTENDED /FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LKS AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
TROUGH...BUT ALL INDICATE THE TROUGH LIFTING NE ON FRI NIGHT AND
INTO SAT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM SW
TO NE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE INTO CANADA. THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL IDEA
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR 12-18HRS
BEHIND THE LOW BEFORE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA...LIKELY ON SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE NEXT WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ALOFT AND WARM
FRONT STRETCHING SE FROM LOW CENTERED IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
TEMPS TO TREND BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH SCT SHRA AT TIMES
TONIGHT...MAINLY AT KIWD/KSAW. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AT ALL TAF
SITES DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL LOWERING OF CIGS. NOT OF
THE QUESTION THAT IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT KIWD/KSAW BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO KEEP THAT OUT FOR NOW. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AS 850MB THERMAL TROF SLIPS TO THE E AND
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN
TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E WED AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. BY LATE WED NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE UNDER
15KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 15KT THRU THU AND INTO FRI
AFTN. WINDS MAY INCREASE A LITTLE LATER FRI INTO SAT OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AS LOW PRES MOVES NE THRU THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES
REGION. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
451 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES EXTENDED FROM SE
MANITOBA TO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL WI AND ERN IA. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSRA HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER NE WI INTO S CNTRL UPPER MI
WHERE A SVR WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR HAVE PUSHED QUICKLY THROUGH NW AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.
ADDITIONAL TSRA HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND OVER THE LK BREEZE AND MOVED
THROUGH N CNTRL UPPER MI INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER AREA OF TSRA HAD
DEVELOPED FROM DLH TO STC AHEAD OF A TRAILING SHRTWV TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SBCAPE VALUES INTO THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF NE MOVING SHRA/TSRA...EXPECT
CONTINUING SVR POTENTIAL FROM ESC TO ERY THROUGH 00Z. THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EXPECT THE SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE EAST HALF TO DIMINISH/END OVER THE CNTRL/EAST LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE INITIAL FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HOWEVER...PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS
EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
LIFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SCT INSTABILITY SHRA BY AFTN AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SETTLES CLOSE BY. HINT OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
SHOULD ALSO BOOST SHRA CHANCES. WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
(SBCAPE VALUES AOB 200 J/KG) EXPECTED...NO TSRA WERE MENTIONED AT
THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP TUES AFTN
ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AND SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA AS MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFT TO THE NE OF THE CWA. WITH THAT BEING SAID...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING AS THE SFC TROUGH SLIDES S ACROSS THE AREA. THE WRN THIRD
WILL BE UNDER THE STRONGER FORCING FROM THE H925-850 TROUGH AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. THUS...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CHANCES AND LINGERED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. HIGH RES MODEL RUNS PICK UP ON THIS FAIRLY WELL
AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE TRENDS...ALTHOUGH POPS MAY END UP NEEDING TO
BUMPED UP FURTHER. HAVE PUT SLIGHT POPS IN FARTHER EAST NEAR LK
SUPERIOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO TO LINGER INTO
THE FIRST PART OF WED MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA WILL PIVOT THROUGH ON WED...WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON WED AND REMAINS THROUGH THURS.
THE DRIER AIR WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING ON. SHOULD SEE SOME SCT CLOUDS
REDEVELOP WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING AWAY FROM LK
SUPERIOR BUT THEN DIMINISH WITH THE INCREASING DRY AIR. FAIRLY COLD
CANADIAN AIR ALOFT WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND -2C OVER THE AREA AROUND
MID DAY THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
AFTN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WED. DID TWEAK TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE GOING FORECAST
OVER THE INTERIOR W WHERE THE MOST SUN WILL LIKELY BE HAD.
MEANWHILE...COOL NNW FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 FROM MARQUETTE EASTWARD ALONG THE SHORELINE.
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL OF FROST ON WED NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. PWATS ARE AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL...LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE
HIGH...AND COOL DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LKS. DID BUMP UP FROST MENTION TO AREAS
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST.
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON WED NIGHT WILL AMPLIFY AN
UPPER WAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON THURS AND LEAD TO A LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. NAM/GFS HINTING AT SOME
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS ON THURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LK BREEZE AREAS AND DID TRY TO SHOW SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AND
LEAD TO LK BREEZES DEVELOPING OFF BOTH LK SUPERIOR/MI.
FOR THE EXTENDED /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MORE SIMILAR TO LATE WINTER AND EARLY
SPRING THAN THE FIRST PART OF JUNE. LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS ON THURS WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LKS ON SAT. 00Z ECMWF NOT AS WRAPPED UP AND
FARTHER N THAN 00Z GEM/GFS. AFTER LOOKING AT THEIR ENS MEANS...A
GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. THIS TRACK WILL BRUSH THE CWA AND COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE ERN PART OF THE CWA ON FRI NIGHT...BUT MAINLY
EXPECT MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA ON SUN IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ON MON AS SFC LOW DROPS OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. 12Z
GFS HAS PUSHED THIS THROUGH MUCH FASTER AND WILL FOLLOW MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF. IT SHOWS H850-700 Q-VECTOR CONV AND MOISTURE
MOVING THROUGH MON...WHICH WARRANTS MENTIONING A CHANCE OF PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
KCMX...A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH WRLY FLOW.
LIFR FOG/STRATUS AND ISOLD SHRA COULD REDEVELOP BY LATE EVENING WITH
A SHRORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHING THE AREA IN A WESTERLY FLOW BEFORE
LIFTING LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
KIWD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
IN A PREVAILING WSW FLOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY TROUGH/FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KSAW...LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHC FOR TSRA EARLY TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...DRIER WRLY FLOW WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CIGS BLO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY OVR WRN AND NCNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COULD THEN
REMAIN GUSTY TO NEAR 30 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1251 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS.
BULK OF THE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR. INVOF STORMS...GUSTY SFC
WINDS...SOME HAIL POSSIBLE. EXPECT STORMS TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND AFFECT KBRD/KDLH/KHYR THROUGH 00Z/29. AFTER
00Z...VFR UNTIL 12Z-15Z WHEN MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
UPDATE...
LACKING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TODAY DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS AND SOME DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FA.
TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER...AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS CAN LIFT
AND CLEAR UP TODAY. THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT THEY ARE
BEGINNING TO IN THE AREAS OF THE STRATUS. THEREFORE...ONLY
SLIGHTLY DECREASED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE AREAS THAT HAD THE
STRATUS THIS MORNING...AND WILL STILL EXPECT MORE RAPID WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THERE IS SOME CLEARING. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
THE FOG WITH NOWCASTS IF THE FOG PERSISTS PAST NOON. STORM
PREDICTION CENTER REVISED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY ONLY SKIRTED OUR FAR SE FA...TO NOW
INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FA. THIS DOES SEEM PLAUSIBLE
CONSIDERING THE MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE AND ML CAPE OF 500 TO 1500
J/KG DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. THE NAME
INDICATES DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM) WILL BE ABOUT 30 TO 40
KNOTS...SO THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE STORMS. THE
MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE HAIL...WIND...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THINK
IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS THIS AFTERNOON TO
BUILD UP THE INSTABILITY. THE WRF AND HRRR RUNS HAVE INDICATED A
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FA INTO
THIS EVENING.
HYDROLOGY...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE OCCURRING OR FORECASTED ALONG SEVERAL
RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHLAND...AND FOLLOWUP
STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED THIS MORNING. ALLOWED SOME AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO EXPIRE...BUT
CONTINUED AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY DUE TO EMERGENCY
MANAGERS REPORTING SOME FLOODED ROADS IN CROW WING AND AITKIN
COUNTIES. WILL LOOK MORE INTO THE NEED TO CONTINUE THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL FA THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS
RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS SOUTH
AS WELL. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...AND SHOULD
SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO A CUMULUS DECK...WITH LOW VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS
RESULTING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR WITH
POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR/MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
UPDATE...
CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAIN HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MAIN THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
HAS ENDED THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. WAS ON THE FENCE CONCERNING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. HOWEVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OF RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS
CONSISTENTLY INDICATE THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE SW
WINDS RAMP UP AND MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FAIRLY RAPIDLY.
SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE FOG LIFT BY 8-9 AM THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
N-CENTRAL MN AND MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR COOL RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.
AN ARRAY OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING...THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SWRN
COUNTIES OF THE NORTHLAND...WHICH HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN
THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...HAVE
ALREADY SEEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE
NORTH...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIMINISHING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
MN AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING TO SEE THE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL SEEN EARLIER TONIGHT AND LAST NIGHT THIS MORNING...SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A NARROW AXIS OF
700MB F-GEN SITUATED ACROSS SWRN MN/NWRN IA...THAT IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NWD INTO NE MN THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
F-GEN BAND. SO...AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...AND RE-EVALUATE THE
SITUATION PRIOR TO EITHER CANCELING OR EXTENDING THE WATCH THIS
MORNING.
SYNOPTIC SET UP SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NWD INTO SRN MANITOBA
THIS MORNING AS THE ELONGATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE E/NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN MN. THERE IS A SECONDARY SFC LOW
CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EWD ACROSS
ND TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND AID IN THE RE-ENFORCEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND MAINLY SHOWERS TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WARM SFC TEMPS TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO SUNSET AS THE BNDY LAYER BECOMES MORE STABLE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY SFC LOW TOMORROW...AND HAVE NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY WILL SEE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH AND 70S TO THE SOUTH...TUESDAY WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT
STORY AS A COLD AIR MASS BLASTS IN FROM THE NW. A RATHER COOL...IF
NOT COLD LATE SPRING DAY IS IN STORE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND A FEW
LOWER 60S INTO NRN WI. THE STIFF NW WINDS AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THAT AT TIMES.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF FORECAST 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -3C OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR
ANY SNOW TO MIX IN.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD BE DRY.
THE MODELS DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAY THEY
HANDLE AN UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW OVER MINNESOTA...VERSUS THE GFS WHICH DIVES
IT WELL SOUTH TO WHERE NE/IA/KS/MO MEET. WE WENT DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT INTRODUCED SOME SMALL POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
AFTER THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST...THE REGION GETS INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD THIS SYSTEM AND A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE CWA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START QUITE COOL WITH SOME AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID FIFTIES TO
AROUND SIXTY WILL INTO THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 47 54 38 58 / 30 30 10 10
INL 43 49 33 61 / 60 50 10 10
BRD 49 55 39 61 / 10 30 10 10
HYR 48 59 37 60 / 40 40 10 10
ASX 50 58 40 56 / 50 40 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1158 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1002 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
CURRENT TIME. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS CAN BE FOUND EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN METRO AREA... IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A VORTICITY LOBE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND DYING CONVECTION
CAN BE FOUND OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. FORCING HAS RUN OUT AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVITY... SO ALTHOUGH IT MAY FESTER FOR A BIT MOST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT SHOULD WEAKEN/DIE OVERALL... AT LEAST FOR
A LITTLE WHILE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH COINCIDENT WITH THE EASTERN CLOUD BAND... AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA... WHERE A GOOD DEWPOINT GRADIENT CAN BE FOUND.
THIS WILL MARCH EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY... WITH THE UPPER LOW
ALSO SLIDING EAST AND AN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL PV WORKING INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE VARIOUS
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS... INCLUDING THE HRRR... SPC/EMC
WRFNMM... LOCAL WRFARW... AND NSSL WRFARW... ALL SUGGEST A RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT SWEEPS EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG WILL PRECEDE THE
BOUNDARY... ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 35 KT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE MEAGER... WHICH SHOULD KEEP A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN CHECK. BUT WILL FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS DROPPING AS MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR WORKS ACROSS THE REGION... EXPECT SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED STORMS RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF DECENT MLCAPE
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND LITCHFIELD
TO LADYSMITH... MAINLY FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM. ANY DECENT STORM COULD
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
WHILE ANYTHING THAN MANAGES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND BETTER ORGANIZE ITSELF COULD PRODUCE HAIL GREATER THAN
AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND LOCATION OF POPS... WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AS THINGS START TO TAKE SHAPE. FORECAST
HIGHS WILL NEED SOME ADJUSTMENTS GIVEN CURRENT OBS/TRENDS...
PARTICULARLY OUT WEST WHERE THE BOUNDARY HASN/T SLIPPED THROUGH YET.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
OVERALL... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD... WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON... THEN PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SHRA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL MAINLY BE VFR WITH
JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING LOCATION OF
ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW TO SPECIFICALLY MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN
VFR VISIBILITIES... AND NO PREVAILING THUNDER AT THIS POINT. BEST
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES... WITH
KMSP LIKELY NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF ANYTHING THAT MANAGES TO GET
GOING. WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN OR CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND 19Z OR 20Z... THEN
MIGRATE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING... ONCE
AGAIN MAINLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA DUE
TO SOME OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THAT BRIEF PERIOD OF
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY IMPACT KSTC AND PERHAPS INTO KRWF... BUT
AT THIS POINT AM NOT MENTIONING IT ANY FARTHER SOUTH OR EAST. MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION... WITH SOME INITIAL CEILINGS AOB 3K FT
POSSIBLE BEFORE RISING BACK INTO VFR RANGE.
KMSP... TAF REFLECTS FORECAST EXPECTATIONS WITH MAIN UNCERTAINTY
BEING WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. IF/WHEN
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS UPSTREAM WILL AMEND AS NEEDED TO BETTER REFLECT
PROBABILITY AND TIMING OF THINGS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH TIMING AND INITIAL HEIGHT OF CEILINGS MOVING INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY... WITH +/- 3 HOURS TIMING AND PERHAPS 500FT
DIFFERENCES IN CEILING POSSIBLE.
//OUTLOOK FOR KMSP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 413 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
AFTER AN ACTIVE NIGHT WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
RAINS...THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN ACROSS THE CWA. COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
TODAY AND TUESDAY...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
BEAUTIFUL OCCLUDED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MT/ND BORDER...WITH RAP
H500 MINIMUM TEMP ANALYZED AT -23C. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EASTWARD TODAY...COLDER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN DYNAMIC DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY CIN...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. IN FACT...THIS PHENOMENON WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA
TODAY. THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AS INDICATED BY THE INVERTED-V
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
WIND GUSTS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED 3HR GRIDS TO
SHOWS THE POPS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET...ONLY TO RETURN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WEST NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW AND
SLIDE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MARCH
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
CAUSE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL US...AND CLOUDY
SKIES WITH COOLER TEMPS AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IA/MN/WI BORDER. THE ECMWF 28.00 IS
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GEM OR GFS...BUT EITHER WAY IT
LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID APRIL THAN
LATE MAY. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE SEASON AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
///JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1050 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.UPDATE...
LACKING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TODAY DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD OVC STRATUS AND SOME DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FA.
TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER...AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS CAN LIFT
AND CLEAR UP TODAY. THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT THEY ARE
BEGINNING TO IN THE AREAS OF THE STRATUS. THEREFORE...ONLY
SLIGHTLY DECREASED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE AREAS THAT HAD THE
STRATUS THIS MORNING...AND WILL STILL EXPECT MORE RAPID WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THERE IS SOME CLEARING. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
THE FOG WITH NOWCASTS IF THE FOG PERSISTS PAST NOON. STORM
PREDICTION CENTER REVISED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY ONLY SKIRTED OUR FAR SE FA...TO NOW
INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FA. THIS DOES SEEM PLAUSIBLE
CONSIDERING THE MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE AND ML CAPE OF 500 TO 1500
J/KG DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. THE NAME
INDICATES DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM) WILL BE ABOUT 30 TO 40
KNOTS...SO THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE STORMS. THE
MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE HAIL...WIND...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THINK
IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS THIS AFTERNOON TO
BUILD UP THE INSTABILITY. THE WRF AND HRRR RUNS HAVE INDICATED A
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FA INTO
THIS EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE OCCURRING OR FORECASTED ALONG SEVERAL
RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHLAND...AND FOLLOWUP
STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED THIS MORNING. ALLOWED SOME AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO EXPIRE...BUT
CONTINUED AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY DUE TO EMERGENCY
MANAGERS REPORTING SOME FLOODED ROADS IN CROW WING AND AITKIN
COUNTIES. WILL LOOK MORE INTO THE NEED TO CONTINUE THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL FA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS
RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS SOUTH
AS WELL. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...AND SHOULD
SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO A CUMULUS DECK...WITH LOW VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS
RESULTING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR WITH
POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR/MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
UPDATE...
CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAIN HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MAIN THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
HAS ENDED THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. WAS ON THE FENCE CONCERNING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. HOWEVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OF RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS
CONSISTENTLY INDICATE THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE SW
WINDS RAMP UP AND MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FAIRLY RAPIDLY.
SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE FOG LIFT BY 8-9 AM THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
N-CENTRAL MN AND MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR COOL RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.
AN ARRAY OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING...THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SWRN
COUNTIES OF THE NORTHLAND...WHICH HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN
THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...HAVE
ALREADY SEEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE
NORTH...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIMINISHING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
MN AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING TO SEE THE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL SEEN EARLIER TONIGHT AND LAST NIGHT THIS MORNING...SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A NARROW AXIS OF
700MB F-GEN SITUATED ACROSS SWRN MN/NWRN IA...THAT IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NWD INTO NE MN THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
F-GEN BAND. SO...AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...AND RE-EVALUATE THE
SITUATION PRIOR TO EITHER CANCELING OR EXTENDING THE WATCH THIS
MORNING.
SYNOPTIC SET UP SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NWD INTO SRN MANITOBA
THIS MORNING AS THE ELONGATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE E/NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN MN. THERE IS A SECONDARY SFC LOW
CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EWD ACROSS
ND TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND AID IN THE RE-ENFORCEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND MAINLY SHOWERS TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WARM SFC TEMPS TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO SUNSET AS THE BNDY LAYER BECOMES MORE STABLE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY SFC LOW TOMORROW...AND HAVE NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY WILL SEE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH AND 70S TO THE SOUTH...TUESDAY WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT
STORY AS A COLD AIR MASS BLASTS IN FROM THE NW. A RATHER COOL...IF
NOT COLD LATE SPRING DAY IS IN STORE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND A FEW
LOWER 60S INTO NRN WI. THE STIFF NW WINDS AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THAT AT TIMES.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF FORECAST 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -3C OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR
ANY SNOW TO MIX IN.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD BE DRY.
THE MODELS DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAY THEY
HANDLE AN UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW OVER MINNESOTA...VERSUS THE GFS WHICH DIVES
IT WELL SOUTH TO WHERE NE/IA/KS/MO MEET. WE WENT DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT INTRODUCED SOME SMALL POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
AFTER THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST...THE REGION GETS INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD THIS SYSTEM AND A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE CWA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START QUITE COOL WITH SOME AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID FIFTIES TO
AROUND SIXTY WILL INTO THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 69 47 54 38 / 50 30 30 10
INL 66 43 49 33 / 50 60 50 10
BRD 74 49 55 39 / 40 10 30 10
HYR 78 48 59 37 / 30 40 40 10
ASX 73 50 58 40 / 30 50 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM....GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1002 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
CURRENT TIME. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS CAN BE FOUND EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN METRO AREA... IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A VORTICITY LOBE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND DYING CONVECTION
CAN BE FOUND OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. FORCING HAS RUN OUT AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVITY... SO ALTHOUGH IT MAY FESTER FOR A BIT MOST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT SHOULD WEAKEN/DIE OVERALL... AT LEAST FOR
A LITTLE WHILE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH COINCIDENT WITH THE EASTERN CLOUD BAND... AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA... WHERE A GOOD DEWPOINT GRADIENT CAN BE FOUND.
THIS WILL MARCH EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY... WITH THE UPPER LOW
ALSO SLIDING EAST AND AN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL PV WORKING INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE VARIOUS
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS... INCLUDING THE HRRR... SPC/EMC
WRFNMM... LOCAL WRFARW... AND NSSL WRFARW... ALL SUGGEST A RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT SWEEPS EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG WILL PRECEDE THE
BOUNDARY... ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 35 KT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE MEAGER... WHICH SHOULD KEEP A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN CHECK. BUT WILL FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS DROPPING AS MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR WORKS ACROSS THE REGION... EXPECT SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED STORMS RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF DECENT MLCAPE
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND LITCHFIELD
TO LADYSMITH... MAINLY FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM. ANY DECENT STORM COULD
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
WHILE ANYTHING THAN MANAGES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND BETTER ORGANIZE ITSELF COULD PRODUCE HAIL GREATER THAN
AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND LOCATION OF POPS... WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AS THINGS START TO TAKE SHAPE. FORECAST
HIGHS WILL NEED SOME ADJUSTMENTS GIVEN CURRENT OBS/TRENDS...
PARTICULARLY OUT WEST WHERE THE BOUNDARY HASN/T SLIPPED THROUGH YET.
&&
.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
/ISSUED 628 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KEAU AT TAF ISSUANCE
WITH RAPID MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST. SMALL THREAT ACROSS THE TWIN
CITIES AND INTO KRNH FOR BKN IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 15Z. CLEARING
HAS OCCURRED INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15-18Z ACROSS CENTRAL MN INCLUDING KAXN AND
KSTC. THE ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS KRWF BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY NOON WITH 13
TO 16 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 21Z AROUND THE TWIN
CITIES AND SPREAD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI THROUGH 00Z. SCT-BKN VFR
CLOUDS TONIGHT ALONG WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
KMSP...SMALL THREAT EARLY ON FOR BKN IFR CEILINGS...WITH BETTER
CHANCES NORTH OF THE METRO. MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
15Z WITH SCT CONDITIONS OCCURRING. INSTABILITY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 21-24Z TIME FRAME. WEST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. WEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO
10 KNOTS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS.
/OUTLOOK/
TUESDAY...VFR WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WNW WINDS 15-20KTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WINDS 5 TO 10KTS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS. NE WINDS 5 TO 10KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 413 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/ AFTER AN ACTIVE NIGHT WITH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING RAINS...THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN
ACROSS THE CWA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
TODAY AND TUESDAY...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
BEAUTIFUL OCCLUDED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MT/ND BORDER...WITH RAP
H500 MINIMUM TEMP ANALYZED AT -23C. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EASTWARD TODAY...COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN DYNAMIC DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY CIN...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. IN FACT...THIS PHENOMENON WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA
TODAY. THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AS INDICATED BY THE INVERTED-V
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
WIND GUSTS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED 3HR GRIDS TO
SHOWS THE POPS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET...ONLY TO RETURN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WEST NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW AND
SLIDE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MARCH
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
CAUSE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL US...AND CLOUDY
SKIES WITH COOLER TEMPS AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IA/MN/WI BORDER. THE ECMWF 28.00 IS
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GEM OR GFS...BUT EITHER WAY IT
LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID APRIL THAN
LATE MAY. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE SEASON AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
$$
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
/RAH/JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
626 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS
RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS SOUTH
AS WELL. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...AND SHOULD
SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO A CUMULUS DECK...WITH LOW VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS
RESULTING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR WITH
POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR/MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
UPDATE...
CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAIN HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MAIN THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
HAS ENDED THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. WAS ON THE FENCE CONCERNING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. HOWEVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OF RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS
CONSISTENTLY INDICATE THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE SW
WINDS RAMP UP AND MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FAIRLY RAPIDLY.
SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE FOG LIFT BY 8-9 AM THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
N-CENTRAL MN AND MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR COOL RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.
AN ARRAY OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING...THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SWRN
COUNTIES OF THE NORTHLAND...WHICH HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN
THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...HAVE
ALREADY SEEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE
NORTH...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIMINISHING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
MN AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING TO SEE THE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL SEEN EARLIER TONIGHT AND LAST NIGHT THIS MORNING...SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A NARROW AXIS OF
700MB F-GEN SITUATED ACROSS SWRN MN/NWRN IA...THAT IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NWD INTO NE MN THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
F-GEN BAND. SO...AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...AND RE-EVALUATE THE
SITUATION PRIOR TO EITHER CANCELING OR EXTENDING THE WATCH THIS
MORNING.
SYNOPTIC SET UP SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NWD INTO SRN MANITOBA
THIS MORNING AS THE ELONGATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE E/NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN MN. THERE IS A SECONDARY SFC LOW
CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EWD ACROSS
ND TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND AID IN THE RE-ENFORCEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND MAINLY SHOWERS TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WARM SFC TEMPS TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO SUNSET AS THE BNDY LAYER BECOMES MORE STABLE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY SFC LOW TOMORROW...AND HAVE NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY WILL SEE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH AND 70S TO THE SOUTH...TUESDAY WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT
STORY AS A COLD AIR MASS BLASTS IN FROM THE NW. A RATHER COOL...IF
NOT COLD LATE SPRING DAY IS IN STORE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND A FEW
LOWER 60S INTO NRN WI. THE STIFF NW WINDS AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THAT AT TIMES.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF FORECAST 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -3C OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR
ANY SNOW TO MIX IN.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD BE DRY.
THE MODELS DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAY THEY
HANDLE AN UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW OVER MINNESOTA...VERSUS THE GFS WHICH DIVES
IT WELL SOUTH TO WHERE NE/IA/KS/MO MEET. WE WENT DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT INTRODUCED SOME SMALL POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
AFTER THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST...THE REGION GETS INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD THIS SYSTEM AND A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE CWA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START QUITE COOL WITH SOME AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID FIFTIES TO
AROUND SIXTY WILL INTO THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 72 47 54 38 / 50 30 30 10
INL 66 43 49 33 / 60 60 50 10
BRD 74 49 55 39 / 40 10 30 10
HYR 77 48 59 37 / 40 40 40 10
ASX 76 50 58 40 / 50 50 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>147.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM....MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
606 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.UPDATE...
CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAIN HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MAIN THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
HAS ENDED THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. WAS ON THE FENCE CONCERNING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. HOWEVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OF RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS
CONSISTENTLY INDICATE THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE SW
WINDS RAMP UP AND MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FAIRLY RAPIDLY.
SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE FOG LIFT BY 8-9 AM THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
N-CENTRAL MN AND MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR COOL RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.
AN ARRAY OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING...THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SWRN
COUNTIES OF THE NORTHLAND...WHICH HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN
THROUGH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...HAVE
ALREADY SEEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE
NORTH...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIMINISHING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
MN AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING TO SEE THE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL SEEN EARLIER TONIGHT AND LAST NIGHT THIS MORNING...SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A NARROW AXIS OF
700MB F-GEN SITUATED ACROSS SWRN MN/NWRN IA...THAT IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NWD INTO NE MN THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
F-GEN BAND. SO...AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...AND RE-EVALUATE THE
SITUATION PRIOR TO EITHER CANCELING OR EXTENDING THE WATCH THIS
MORNING.
SYNOPTIC SET UP SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NWD INTO SRN MANITOBA
THIS MORNING AS THE ELONGATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE E/NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN MN. THERE IS A SECONDARY SFC LOW
CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EWD ACROSS
ND TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND AID IN THE RE-ENFORCEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND MAINLY SHOWERS TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WARM SFC TEMPS TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO SUNSET AS THE BNDY LAYER BECOMES MORE STABLE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY SFC LOW TOMORROW...AND HAVE NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY WILL SEE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH AND 70S TO THE SOUTH...TUESDAY WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT
STORY AS A COLD AIR MASS BLASTS IN FROM THE NW. A RATHER COOL...IF
NOT COLD LATE SPRING DAY IS IN STORE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND A FEW
LOWER 60S INTO NRN WI. THE STIFF NW WINDS AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THAT AT TIMES.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF FORECAST 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -3C OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR
ANY SNOW TO MIX IN.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD BE DRY.
THE MODELS DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAY THEY
HANDLE AN UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW OVER MINNESOTA...VERSUS THE GFS WHICH DIVES
IT WELL SOUTH TO WHERE NE/IA/KS/MO MEET. WE WENT DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT INTRODUCED SOME SMALL POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
AFTER THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST...THE REGION GETS INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD THIS SYSTEM AND A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE CWA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START QUITE COOL WITH SOME AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID FIFTIES TO
AROUND SIXTY WILL INTO THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES BY NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN WITH
VISIBILITIES FALLING TO MVFR RANGE AND IFR CEILINGS. LOOK FOR
CEILINGS TO RISE AFTER 14Z WITH WINDS COMING FROM THE WEST WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HINTED AT SOME FOG FORMATION TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT DLH AND HIB.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 72 47 54 38 / 50 30 30 10
INL 66 43 49 33 / 60 60 50 10
BRD 74 49 55 39 / 40 10 30 10
HYR 77 48 59 37 / 40 40 40 10
ASX 76 50 58 40 / 50 50 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>147.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM....MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
940 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
00Z NAM IS MOSTLY IN AND IS SHOWING NO PRECIP AT ALL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWFA. RAP AND HRRR STILL DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF STORMS AROUND
KANSAS CITY AND MOVE THEM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO NEAR COLUMBIA BY 10Z
AND CONTINUING TO SOUTHWEST OF THE STL METRO AREA BY 12Z. HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...BUT THE GIST IS STILL CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPING LATE
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO
THE LOW 60S IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...WARMER
IN THE METRO AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RE-EVALUATE LATER
TONIGHT WHEN THE GFS COMES IN.
CARNEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
(TONIGHT)
MDLS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO
PORTIONS OF CNTL MO LATE TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP/MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT FORCING IS
SOMEWHAT MINIMAL. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT LOW CHANCE.
TRENDED TEMPS TONIGHT TWD THE WARMER GUIDANCE...AT LEAST ACROSS
THE SRN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH A WEAK SECONDARY
CDFNT MOVING INTO THE AREA...BELIEVE CLOUDS MOVING IN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE.
TILLY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
MAIN ATTENTION THROUGH FRIDAY IS FOCUSED ON THE SHORT WAVE TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. FOR WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
LEVEL WAA/FRONTOGENTECIALY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA DURING THE MORNING SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 IN MO...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD
BE MARKED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM.
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z CYCLE
AND THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THE AFOREMENTIONED PAC NW SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AMPLIFY...WHILE A
LEAD IMPULSE TRACKS IN THE VICINITY OF THE OK/KS BORDER INTO SW MO
BY 12Z THURS. IN RESPONSE A LARGE REGION OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY WITH A 30-40 KT SLY
LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT AS
WELL. A LARGE REGION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITH MORE INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO AND POINTS SOUTH. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT
EASTWARD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION ON WED NIGHT...BUT THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD BE TO AT LEAST THE MS RIVER BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE
SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST ON THURSDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONTINUE PROGRESSION AND DIGGING OF THE UPPER
LOW/TROF INTO THE MS VALLEY. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INHIBIT MUCH TEMPERATURE REBOUND. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD THEN MOVE TO THE EAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING YET PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD. THE HIGHEST POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL IL...TAPERING SIGNIFICANTLY BACK INTO CENTRAL
MO.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW
AND TROF SLIDING EASTWARD AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE LEAST I AM EXPECTING EXTENSIVE STRATUS/STRATOCU...AND
POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE
CWA. H85 TEMPS OF +3/+5 DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE 2 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST OF WELL
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THE DAY.
THE BOUT OF COOL WEATHER LOOKS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER WITH HEIGHTS
ALOFT ON THE RISE SAT-SUN AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF EXITS TO THE ENE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN FACT...H5 HEIGHTS RISE SOME +240
METERS FROM 12Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN...AND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS SSWLY WITH H85 TEMPS OF +20 TO +22. FROM LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SAGGING WEST-EAST
FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
VFR CONDITIONS AND N SFC WNDS SLOWLY VEERING TO NE WILL BE THE
STORY OVER THE NEXT 24-30HRS AT THE TAF SITES. TWO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL DICTATE THE WX OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS AS A SFC
HI PRES BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THRU MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS SLATED TO MOVE THRU LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL COINCIDE WITH AND BE
JUST TO THE N OF EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER IN S CNTRL KS AND
WILL HELP TO PUSH LO PROBABILITIES OF RAIN MUCH FURTHER N AND NE
THAN WHERE THE MCS WILL TRACK. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FORCING
AND MOISTENING OCCURRING AT THE RIGHT TIME AND LOCATION TO WARRANT
A LO THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR MAINLY IN MO
BETWEEN 08-13Z. PROBABILITY IS LO ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO JUST
CONTINUE THE LOWER VFR CIGS MENTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...AS WHAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST. THIS
FORCING EXITS QUICKLY BY 13-14Z WEDNESDAY AND WILL LEAVE A PRETTY
DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW 15KFT THRU THE REST OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD
AS SFC HI PRES DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REGION. THE SECOND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THRU LATER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD CARRY WITH IT NON-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT THE TIMING OF IT FAVORED BY MOST MODELS WILL
NOT BRING IT IN UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD ENDS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT N SFC WNDS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SFC WNDS VEERING NE
LATE. ONLY PCPN EXPECTED IS LO PROBABILITY/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA IN A
WINDOW FROM 09-13Z...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHCS ON THE SWRN METRO
AREA TOWARDS KSUS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO
OVERCOME INHIBITION AND GENERATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION.
PROBABILITIES AND EXPECTED COVERAGE ARE LO ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
JUST CONTINUE THE 7KFT CIG FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FOREGO VC OR
TEMPO WHICH WOULD BE HITTING IT TOO STRONG.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1219 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IOWA SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING. VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL SUPPLY LIFT FOR THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST MISSOURI BETWEEN 12-15Z BASED ON LATEST RAP RUN DEPICTING
DECENT 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THESE AREAS. CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD AND REACHES KUIN-KCOU LINE BY 00Z.
MLCAPES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE WITH
LIMITED CINH. STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OR LARGE SCALE ASCENT CAUSE BY A SHORTWAVE TO FORCE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. SO AREA EXTENT OF STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE
SCATTERED UNLESS COLD POOLS CAN ORGANIZE AND FORCE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL ONLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE WHICH FAVORS MULTICELLS...THOUGH AMOUNT OF CAPE STILL SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL INTO THE
EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY BEEN AT OR BELOW FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE THE
PAST TWO DAYS...AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO EXCEED THESE VALUES TODAY
GIVEN MORE CLOUDS.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
TUE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING
SEWD INTO MO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUE THROUGH WED WITH LOW
LEVEL CAA...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE. ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA WED NGT AS THE NAM MODEL
DEPICTS STRONG 850 MB WAA...THETA E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER CNTRL MO ON NOSE OF S-SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS
SHOWING A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THU AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE EWD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS MODEL IS FURTHER S WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
VERSUS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH APPEARS MORE REALISTIC
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MORE LIKELY TOO VERIFY THAN THE GFS.
WILL END THE POPS OR LOWER THEM DRAMATICALLY BY FRI AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE E OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLDER AND BELOW NORMAL ON THU MAINLY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED RELATIVELY COLD THU NGT AND FRI WITH
NLY WINDS BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
850MB/SFC LOW. THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE 4 DEGREE C 850 MB
ISOTHERM SWD TO STL BY 12Z FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE S-SWLY
BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE.
GK`S
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
A CDFNT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCT
TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FNT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY OF
IMPACTING TERMINAL...HAVE KEPT MENTION AS VCTS FOR NOW. CHANCES
INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT AREA SHUD BE S OF SUS/CPS TERMINALS.
BEHIND THE FNT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH NLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEERING TO BECOME SELY TO SLY BY TUES MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVE
BEHIND A CDFNT. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FNT...BUT BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE S OF THE TERMINAL TONIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
VCTS FOR NOW. NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
SELY...THEN SLY ON TUES. WITH WINDS UNDER 5 KTS EXPECTED...HAVE
KEPT AS VRB FOR NOW.
TILLY
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
HERE IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...
...MONDAY...
(5/28)
ST. LOUIS 93
2006
COLUMBIA 91
2006
QUINCY 94
1914
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
616 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IOWA SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING. VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL SUPPLY LIFT FOR THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST MISSOURI BETWEEN 12-15Z BASED ON LATEST RAP RUN DEPICTING
DECENT 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THESE AREAS. CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD AND REACHES KUIN-KCOU LINE BY 00Z.
MLCAPES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE WITH
LIMITED CINH. STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OR LARGE SCALE ASCENT CAUSE BY A SHORTWAVE TO FORCE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. SO AREA EXTENT OF STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE
SCATTERED UNLESS COLD POOLS CAN ORGANIZE AND FORCE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL ONLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE WHICH FAVORS MULTICELLS...THOUGH AMOUNT OF CAPE STILL SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL INTO THE
EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY BEEN AT OR BELOW FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE THE
PAST TWO DAYS...AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO EXCEED THESE VALUES TODAY
GIVEN MORE CLOUDS.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
TUE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING
SEWD INTO MO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUE THROUGH WED WITH LOW
LEVEL CAA...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE. ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA WED NGT AS THE NAM MODEL
DEPICTS STRONG 850 MB WAA...THETA E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER CNTRL MO ON NOSE OF S-SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS
SHOWING A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THU AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE EWD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS MODEL IS FURTHER S WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
VERSUS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH APPEARS MORE REALISTIC
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MORE LIKELY TOO VERIFY THAN THE GFS.
WILL END THE POPS OR LOWER THEM DRAMATICALLY BY FRI AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE E OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLDER AND BELOW NORMAL ON THU MAINLY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED RELATIVELY COLD THU NGT AND FRI WITH
NLY WINDS BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
850MB/SFC LOW. THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE 4 DEGREE C 850 MB
ISOTHERM SWD TO STL BY 12Z FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE S-SWLY
BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE.
GK`S
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
AND HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
TO THE NORTHWEST OF KIRK IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TREND TO SEE IF IT WILL THREATEN KUIN IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA AT THE
TAF SITES WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...
THOUGH CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR IN
THUNDERSTORM CORES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR SEVERE
WIND GUSTS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND FROPA.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE BY MID-
MORNING WITH WIND DIRECTION RANGING FROM 200-230 DEGREES TODAY.
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINAL JUST AFTER
06Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING.
BRITT
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
HERE IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...
...MONDAY...
(5/28)
ST. LOUIS 93
2006
COLUMBIA 91
2006
QUINCY 94
1914
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
418 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IOWA SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING. VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL SUPPLY LIFT FOR THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST MISSOURI BETWEEN 12-15Z BASED ON LATEST RAP RUN DEPICTING
DECENT 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THESE AREAS. CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD AND REACHES KUIN-KCOU LINE BY 00Z.
MLCAPES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE WITH
LIMITED CINH. STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OR LARGE SCALE ASCENT CAUSE BY A SHORTWAVE TO FORCE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. SO AREA EXTENT OF STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE
SCATTERED UNLESS COLD POOLS CAN ORGANIZE AND FORCE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL ONLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE WHICH FAVORS MULTICELLS...THOUGH AMOUNT OF CAPE STILL SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL INTO THE
EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY BEEN AT OR BELOW FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE THE
PAST TWO DAYS...AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO EXCEED THESE VALUES TODAY
GIVEN MORE CLOUDS.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
TUE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING
SEWD INTO MO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUE THROUGH WED WITH LOW
LEVEL CAA...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE. ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA WED NGT AS THE NAM MODEL
DEPICTS STRONG 850 MB WAA...THETA E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER CNTRL MO ON NOSE OF S-SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS
SHOWING A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THU AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE EWD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS MODEL IS FURTHER S WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
VERSUS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH APPEARS MORE REALISTIC
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MORE LIKELY TOO VERIFY THAN THE GFS.
WILL END THE POPS OR LOWER THEM DRAMATICALLY BY FRI AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE E OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLDER AND BELOW NORMAL ON THU MAINLY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED RELATIVELY COLD THU NGT AND FRI WITH
NLY WINDS BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
850MB/SFC LOW. THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE 4 DEGREE C 850 MB
ISOTHERM SWD TO STL BY 12Z FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS UPPPER LEVE HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE S-SWLY
BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE
CONTINUES TO BE THE WINDS. SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING
...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY MID
MORNING TODAY. WILL SEE WINDS MIX DOWN TO SURFACE...SO EXPECT
GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS AT TIMES. MODELS SHOW SOME PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY
FIRING BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY FOR KUIN AND KCOU...SO ADDED VCNTY
SHOWER MENTION...AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEN WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS
SUNSET WITH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN METRO AREA AFTER
02Z...SO ADDED VCNTY SHOWER MENTION. FRONT TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH AREA LATE THIS EVENING...AFTER 04Z TUESDAY.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE WINDS. SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BY 15Z TODAY. WILL SEE WINDS MIX DOWN TO SURFACE...SO EXPECT
GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS AT TIMES. MODELS KEEP ANY PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY
NORTH OF METRO AREA DURING THE DAY. THEN WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS
SUNSET WITH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN METRO AREA AFTER
02Z...SO ADDED VCNTY SHOWER MENTION. FRONT TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH METRO AREA...AFTER 07Z TUESDAY.
BYRD
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
HERE IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...
...MONDAY...
(5/28)
ST. LOUIS 93
2006
COLUMBIA 91
2006
QUINCY 94
1914
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
321 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IOWA SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING. VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL SUPPLY LIFT FOR THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST MISSOURI BETWEEN 12-15Z BASED ON LATEST RAP RUN DEPICTING
DECENT 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THESE AREAS. CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD AND REACHES KUIN-KCOU LINE BY 00Z.
MLCAPES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE WITH
LIMITED CINH. STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OR LARGE SCALE ASCENT CAUSE BY A SHORTWAVE TO FORCE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. SO AREA EXTENT OF STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE
SCATTERED UNLESS COLD POOLS CAN ORGANIZE AND FORCE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL ONLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE WHICH FAVORS MULTICELLS...THOUGH AMOUNT OF CAPE STILL SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL INTO THE
EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY BEEN AT OR BELOW FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE THE
PAST TWO DAYS...AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO EXCEED THESE VALUES TODAY
GIVEN MORE CLOUDS.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE
CONTINUES TO BE THE WINDS. SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING
...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY MID
MORNING TODAY. WILL SEE WINDS MIX DOWN TO SURFACE...SO EXPECT
GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS AT TIMES. MODELS SHOW SOME PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY
FIRING BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY FOR KUIN AND KCOU...SO ADDED VCNTY
SHOWER MENTION...AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEN WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS
SUNSET WITH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN METRO AREA AFTER
02Z...SO ADDED VCNTY SHOWER MENTION. FRONT TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH AREA LATE THIS EVENING...AFTER 04Z TUESDAY.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE WINDS. SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BY 15Z TODAY. WILL SEE WINDS MIX DOWN TO SURFACE...SO EXPECT
GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS AT TIMES. MODELS KEEP ANY PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY
NORTH OF METRO AREA DURING THE DAY. THEN WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS
SUNSET WITH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN METRO AREA AFTER
02Z...SO ADDED VCNTY SHOWER MENTION. FRONT TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH METRO AREA...AFTER 07Z TUESDAY.
BYRD
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
HERE IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...
...MONDAY...
(5/28)
ST. LOUIS 93
2006
COLUMBIA 91
2006
QUINCY 94
1914
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1246 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION HAVE FINALLY
BEGUN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TAF SITE MIGHT STILL SEE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND A ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO COME TO AN END
BY ABOUT 9Z. CLOUD BASES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT AS SHOWERS PUSH
OUT OF THE REGION. WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA...WINDS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE AROUND THE NORTH DIRECTION BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND FINALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/
UPDATE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL VERY LITTLE
NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS...WITH THE OBVIOUS MAIN ISSUE BEING THE LIKELY ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
18Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PAINTS A WEAK 1002 MB LOW NEAR HILL
CITY KS...WITH A SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
FARTHER EAST...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS SOLIDLY IN THE SOUTHERLY
WIND REGIME AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAINLY
15-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. HOWEVER...KS ZONES ARE AVERAGING
A BIT STRONGER SPEEDS...WITH SUSTAINED CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA DOWN THERE...ANTICIPATE A POSSIBLE SLIGHT
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...AND THUS WILL LET THE
INHERITED WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE AS-IS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH AN EARLY
CANCELLATION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMP WISE...EARLIER
NUDGED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
MOST AREAS...RANGING FROM MID 80S WEST TO LOW 90S EAST AND SOUTH.
SO FAR...THIS SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...DESPITE THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CUMULUS FIELD WHICH AS OVERTAKEN MOST OF THE CWA. ALOFT...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY REVEALS THE
PRIMARY EXPANSIVE SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST APPROACHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ANCHORED BY A CLOSED 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS
EASTERN MT. THE PRIMARY 300MB JET AXIS AROUND 100KT IS STILL TO
THE WEST...EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH FROM WESTERN NEB INTO SD. RADAR
WISE...THERE HAVE BEEN A SMATTERING OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS/MAYBE A
FEW VERY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATING NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY
AMOUNTING TO NOTHING MORE THAN A GLORIFIED SPRINKLE.
GETTING TO THE FORECAST...THE WELL-ADVERTISED AFTERNOON/EVENING
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE PARAMOUNT CONCERN.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING/MODEL TRENDS HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR FROM
THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT FORECAST...WHICH REALLY SEEMED TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS. ALSO AGREE WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK EMPHASIZING THE HAIL/WIND THREAT BUT KEEPING THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL MORE IN CHECK. ONE TREND THAT HAS SEEMED TO EMERGE TODAY
IS SLIGHTLY LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES...WITH THE RAP/RUC
ADVERTISING 0-1 KM MLCAPE VALUES TOPPING OUT MAINLY AROUND 1500
J/KG INSTEAD OF MORE WIDESPREAD 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WITH 0-6KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY INCREASING INTO THE 40-60KT
RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND MID
LEVEL TEMPS GRADUALLY COOLING AS WELL...SHOULD STILL SEE A ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT. LEANING TOWARD THE LATEST RAP/RUC AND HRRR FOR THE
DETAILS...THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME SHOULD FEATURE THE ONSET OF
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT IN EASTERN ZONES THROUGH
00Z...KEEPING SEVERAL COUNTIES BELOW LIKELY WORDING. ONCE STORMS
FORM...A POTENTIALLY MESSY MIX OF INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS AND
QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS SHOULD UNFOLD...WITH INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS
TRACKING NORTHEAST AROUND 35 MPH. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES...AND RESULTANT LCL
HEIGHTS LARGELY IN EXCESS OF 1500-2000M TO START OUT WITH...THINK
THAT INITIAL STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY HAIL/EFFICIENT WIND
PRODUCERS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTNADOES AS SEEN
BACK ON THE 19TH. HOWEVER...AS LONG AS STORMS CAN REMAIN AT LEAST
QUASI-DISCRETE TOWARD 00Z AND TOWARD SUNSET...PARAMETERS DO BECOME
A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAYBE A FEW TORNADOES...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING BRINGING LCLS DOWN CLOSER TO 1000M AND 0-1KM BULK
SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 20-25KT AND 0-1KM SRH POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 150 M2/S2...AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS IS PARTIALLY
IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY BACKING IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW DEEPENING A BIT TO AROUND 997MB IN NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL KS.
FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL...SO MUCH WILL DEPEND ON YET-TO-BE-RESOLVED
DETAILS IN STORM MODE/STORM INTERACTION...BUT OVERALL THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING LONG TRACK OR PARTICULARLY
STRONG. AS FOR HAIL...WILL LEAVE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO BASEBALL
WORDING IN THE HWO...BUT WITH INSTABILITY NOT EYE-POPPING WOULD
TEND TO THINK MOST SHOULD REMAIN GOLF BALL OR SMALLER. CERTAINLY
WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 70 MPH ARE A CONCERN.
SPECIFICALLY GETTING INTO THE EVENING 00Z-06Z PERIOD...KEPT 60-80
POPS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
EXPANDED AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS ALL THE WAY BACK ACROSS THE FAR
WEST...AS THE COLD FRONTAL INVASION APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AS IT STALLS OUT IN RESPONSE TO A GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF THE NORTHWEST KS SURFACE LOW TO AROUND 997MB. THAT
BEING SAID...THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SHARP EAST-WEST GRADIENT
BETWEEN STORMS AND NO STORMS...AND SEVERAL WESTERN COUNTIES COULD
MISS OUT ON MOST IF NOT ALL THE ACTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS WELL...AS STORMS LIKELY
BECOME MORE LINEAR AND THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET ACCELERATES
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AND OVER THE INVADING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE. SHOULD EASILY SEE SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH LOCALIZED 2+ QUITE POSSIBLE AS WELL IF THINGS STALL
OUT AND/OR BACKBUILD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AS HINTED BY THE
12Z 4KM WRF-NMM EXPLICIT REFLECTIVITY.
FOR THE LATE NIGHT 06Z-12Z PERIOD...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES DURING THE 06Z-09Z PERIOD...BUT KEPT
THEM BELOW LIKELY RANGE AT LEAST FOR NOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM/4KM WRF
SUPPORT LINGERING CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS PAST 06Z
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN
STORM-FREE CONDITIONS POST-09Z...AS DRIER AIR INVADES BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. KEPT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS...RANGING FROM LOW 50S FAR WEST TO LOW 60S FAR EAST.
GETTING INTO MONDAY...OTHER THAN BEING A BIT BREEZY...A PLEASANT
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS IN STORE. ALOFT...THE PARENT 500MB CLOSED
LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM THE MT/ND BORDER TO EASTERN
ND...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT TRACKS WELL OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...ALIGNED FROM NORTHERN IL TO NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER
BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CHANGED HIGH TEMPS LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING
THEM CLOSE TO 12Z MET GUIDANCE RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 70S
NORTHWEST TO MAINLY MID 80S SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER FAR SOUTHEAST
AROUND BELOIT COULD STILL REACH UPPER 80S. LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH...AS
NAM-BASED MIX-DOWN TOOLS SUGGEST DEWPOINTS COULD PLUNGE ALL THE
WAY INTO THE 20S IN SOUTH/WEST AREAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASES TO AROUND 700MB. NOT GOING TO GO QUITE THIS LOW
YET...BUT STILL HAVE MOST OF THE CWA MIXING WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S
FOR DEWPOINTS. FORTUNATELY WILL NOT HAVE TO CONSIDER A RED FLAG
WARNING AS OFFICIAL VEGETATIVE FUEL STATUS IS STILL
DEEMED UNFAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH...BUT RH VALUES SHOULD
NONETHELESS DIVE BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
1/2 OF THE CWA. THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO KICK UP
WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS EASILY 15-20
MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS THE TEMPERATURES AT
850MB DECREASE DURING THE DAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE WAVE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CAPE IS GOING TO BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DECREASES AFTER THAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE CAPE
DECREASING LATER...EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
ISOLATED DURING THE EVENING. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN RECENTLY. THE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WHEN THE
UPPER WAVE FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOLER SIDE FOR THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA THAT SETTLES INTO THE AREA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. A
COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SPOTTY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK AND SPRINKLES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ARE EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT LEAVING JUST SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/
UPDATE...
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS SHIFTED EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA.
STILL SOME WEAK TRANSPORT JUST AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS WRN HOLT AND CUSTER COUNTIES. SO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. NOTE THE HRRR IS
CLEARING THE FCST AREA OF CONVECTION BY 04Z. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. THE FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS VS THE PREVIOUS LIKELY POP FCST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
STOCKVILLE NORTHEAST THROUGH ONEILL SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH ERN NEB. DRY AIR SHOULD
FILL IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BY 04Z AT THE LATEST ACCORDING THE HRRR
MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
ANALYSIS OF THE 19Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY OR FRONT FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO A LOW ALONG THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER EAST OF
MCCOOK AND TO ANOTHER LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ANOTHER BOUNDARY OR
FRONT EXTENDED TO A LOW IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OPEN CELLED
CUMULUS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST TO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOWED THE AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. ANOTHER
SMALL FIELD OF CUMULUS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HINTED
AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THERE WERE ALSO CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO FROM ABOUT PINE RIDGE AND
WHITECLAY TO STERLING. DERIVED IMAGERY FROM GOES SATELLITE SHOWED
THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND ABUNDANT PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING...EXTENT AND
STRENGTH OF CONVECTION IN THIS FAIRLY FLUID PATTERN. MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE EARLIEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANY OF THE CUMULUS FIELDS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE NORTH PLATTE FORECAST AREA... THE
AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE WHEELER AND
GARFIELD COUNTIES AND THE EASTERN PARTS OF HOLT AND CUSTER COUNTIES
WHERE THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY IS. INDEED...THE HOURLY RAPID
REFRESH INDICATES JUST THAT. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN
THE PANHANDLE AS WELL.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AS
HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN THEY ARE TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THE WIND COMING AROUND TO THE WEST.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH REDEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURNS AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA (PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.50-0.75 INCH). AS A FRONT
PIVOTS THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA...THE MOIST AIR WILL BE LIFTED UP
AND COULD PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. WITH
SURFACE-BASED AND ELEVATED LIFTED INDICES BELOW ZERO C...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY FORM OF PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT 30-50 PERCENT PROBABILITY IS A
REASONABLE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BEGINS TO FORM AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SETS THE SCENE FOR PRECIPITATION AGAIN SUNDAY OR MONDAY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND WE WILL NOT INCLUDE MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.
AFTER THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 60S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND IN THE 70S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
FIRE WEATHER...
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LAST NIGHT HAS BROUGHT
DRYING WESTERLY WINDS TO WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 70S WHILE DEW PTS ARE IN THE 20S AND 30S. THIS COMBINATION HAS
PUSHED PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA TO SEE RH VALUES DROP TO AND
BELOW 15 PERCENT. WINDS ARE COMPLEX WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THUS MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED AND EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE...THUS NO CHANCE TO THE
ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING. TOMORROW SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WITH
SIMILAR DEW PTS SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES CLOSER TO 20
PERCENT. WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED AN MAYBE
CLOSER TO 30 MPH. THUS A HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST FOR
TOMORROW...HOWEVER WITH THE RH PERCENTAGES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT...NO HEADLINE EXPECTED...HOWEVER WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
332 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A HOT AND SULTRY MEMORIAL DAY. THE FRONT COULD ALSO HELP
TO KICK OFF SOME BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WARMTH
WILL EASE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z HRRR MODEL ONLY SHOWS SOME CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AFTER 10Z. WHILE THE 00Z NAM SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NY NEAR 12Z MONDAY TRIGGERED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING THOUGH THE 500 MB FLOW.
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS BUT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR IR SATELLITE/RADAR OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED
CONVECTIVE TRENDS VERY WELL OF LATE.
WARM FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH A HOT AIR
MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 00Z KBUF OBSERVED SOUNDING SHOWED
+11C AT 700MB WHICH INDICATED A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP. FEEL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE FRONT
WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD POP UP A SHOWER.
MEMORIAL DAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD POSSIBLY
APPROACH 100F ESPECIALLY THOUGH SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
GENESEE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE SOME RELIEF DUE TO THE
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT THAT WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS AT
BUFFALO 86F/1987 AND ROCHESTER 93F/1911 WILL CERTAINLY BE CHALLENGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE DAY TUESDAY AS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE DAY TRANSITION TO MORE SFC BASED AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS
QUICKLY ERASED BY DAYTIME HEATING. SI`S TO START THE DAY OF -1 TO
-3C ALONG WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
OF PWATS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. BY AFTERNOON DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
700-850 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM. THIS COUPLED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...AN INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER TO 30
KNOTS...AND 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL STILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH NOT AS HOT
AS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL AVERAGE AROUND
+16C...ABOUT 2 TO 4C DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...AND WITH
CLOUDS/MOISTURE A LITTLE THICKER TUESDAY EXPECT MORE JUST WIDESPREAD
80S ACROSS THE FA. TUESDAY WILL BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. WITH THE CONVECTION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STRONGER GUSTS WITH A POSSIBLE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY FEATURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING TO CROSS THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH THE LOW LEVELS
STILL PRETTY MOIST FEEL MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY TO COMPLETELY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER TO MORE COMFORTABLE READINGS TO THE WEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THOUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LIKELY STILL UPON THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A BREEZY AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY WILL ENSUE
THOUGH A POP UP LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL REMAINING MOIST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S...SEASONABLE FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS IN MAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY NOSE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WITH SOME MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM +3C TO +4C AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S
FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. GFS AND ECMWF
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FORMATION OF A CUTOFF LOW ON FRIDAY AND HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BRINGS A RETURN OF WARMER AIR ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS EXCEPT FOR KJHW WHICH
RECENTLY IS REPORTING SOME MVFR FOG AS A RESULT OF SOME SHOWERS
EARLIER TODAY. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. LATEST 00Z MODELS SHOWING A MIX OF SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD
TO OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR IR SATELLITE/RADAR OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A RIDGE OF WARM AIR
ALOFT KEEPING CONVECTION CAPPED WITH VFR. WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
ALONG THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHWESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO. OTHERWISE PRETTY FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY...BUT DUE TO THE HOT AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION THE OVER WATER STABILITY WILL LIMIT WIND SPEEDS AND
PARTICULARLY WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
202 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAS MOVED ONSHORE NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.
BERYL...OR THE REMNANTS OF BERYL...MAY BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM SUNDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME SHOWERS BETWEEN GEORGETOWN
AND KINGSTREE RADAR SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA CURRENTLY. 18Z SYNOPTIC MODELS PLUS THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSHING ONSHORE FROM MYRTLE BEACH
SOUTH THROUGH GEORGETOWN BY 2 AM. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENT COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE NOCTURNAL ONSHORE FLOW. POPS IN THIS REGION ARE
IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...WITH ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS OFF TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA A COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES DOWN AROUND 10
PERCENT...TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAS CROSSED THE GULF STREAM AND
THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. A
TROPICAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO STREAM ONSHORE IN THE MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS EXTENDING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. (THIS IS 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.60 TO 1.75
INCHES) AND NO CAPPING INVERSIONS ALOFT...SO THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD END INLAND LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE INCREASES DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING INLAND BUT NOT OVER THE OCEAN. ALL IN ALL...CHANGES FROM
THE PRIOR FORECAST ARE MINOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM BERYL OR ITS REMNANTS WILL LIKELY
BE W OF JACKSONVILLE FL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEAKENS BERYL TO A
DEPRESSION BY MON NIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH...APPROACHING FROM THE
W...IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP BERYL AND TURN IT NORTHWARD TUE AND THEN
NE AS IT ACCELERATES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL TAKE ITS TOLL ON BERYL AND IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT
SHAPE THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN WHEN IT BEGINS ITS ACCELERATION TO THE
NE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REEMERGES A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TUE NIGHT AND THEN SHOWS SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION
WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE
CAPE FEAR RIVER WED MORNING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF MODEL CONSENSUS.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS STEERED
NORTHWARD. AT THIS TIME A GOOD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL IS IN THE OFFING
WITH A LIKELIHOOD THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION ON MON WILL BE
LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND UNRELATED TO BERYL...WILL KEEP POPS IN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE. TIMING IS NOT NAILED DOWN...BUT
IN GENERAL...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON
TUE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED LATE TUE INTO WED.
THIS MAY POSE SOME HIGH WATER/PONDING ISSUES IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT AND MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 30
TO 35 MPH NEAR/AT THE BEACHES. PREDICTED TIDES WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT GIVEN WE WILL BE JUST PAST THE FIRST QUARTER AND SO WE
WOULD NEED +1.5 TO 2 FT DEPARTURES...BEFORE COASTAL FLOODING
WOULD BE A CONCERN AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING DEPARTURES OF THAT
MAGNITUDE AT THIS TIME. THE HIGHEST OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. THE SURF WILL BE ROUGH AND THE RIP
CURRENT RISK ELEVATED TO BE SURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERYL WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TIMING STILL AN ISSUE. NHC SOLUTION
IS BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF AND THE SLOWER GFS...THOUGH CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF. TIMING WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER
FL/GA. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHAT SHAPE WILL THE STORM BE AS IT IS
PICKED UP BY A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LIFTED NORTHEAST. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE STORM BECOMING A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM AS IT
PASSES THE AREA...BUT IT COULD JUST AS EASILY BE SUB TROPICAL OR
EXTRA TROPICAL. HOWEVER THE DIFFERENCE AS FAR AS THE RESULT IS
CONCERNED IS NEGLIGIBLE. 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST...SLIGHTLY LESS INLAND...CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT THE BIGGER
ISSUE WILL BE RAINFALL. HPC FORECAST IS 3 TO 6 INCHES BUT BASED ON
LATEST TRACK MOST OF THIS WILL FALL BEFORE THE START OF THE
PERIOD. PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO WED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...SO HAVE BUMPED POP TO LIKELY AT THE COAST DECREASING TO
CHANCE WELL INLAND.
THU IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH FLAT UPPER PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF BERYL
TRANSITIONING TO BROAD 5H TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US BY FRI
MORNING. 5H TROUGH HELPS PUSH COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRI...ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES FRI...THOUGH ONLY GOING CHANCE FOR NOW. BEST
DYNAMICS AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN NORTHWEST OF AREA. COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST LATE SAT MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FOLLOWING SAT NIGHT...DRYING THE AREA OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO INTO SAT MORNING.
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP LOWS WELL
ABOVE CLIMO THU AND FRI NIGHT...NEAR 70 SLIGHTLY COOLER INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. PRIMARILY BROKEN MVFR LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH THE
ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS AT FLO/LBT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 08-09Z. IFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS CLOUD BASES ARE NEAR 1K
FEET...BUT AS OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS IN THIS SAME
AIRMASS EXPECT ANY IFR TO BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL OMIT FROM TAFS
ATTM. WITH A DEEP MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR AT ANY TIME...BUT EXPECT THE BEST POTENTIAL BY SUNRISE AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
AFTER SUNRISE PRIMARILY BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED TERMINAL-WIDE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING AND THE INLAND
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...STRONGEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...WIND AND WAVE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE LATEST
FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS APPROACHING A LANDFALL IN NORTHERN FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT. A BROAD ZONE OF EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE STORM
EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS THE OUTER BANKS. EAST WINDS WILL VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AS BERYL MOVES FARTHER WEST AND WE ENTER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONIC VORTEX SURROUNDING THE STORM.
WIND SPEEDS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 KT...BUT WILL
INCREASE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE...REACHING
20 KNOTS OR SO EAST OF WINYAH BAY AND THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR 4-6
FT SEAS...HIGHEST EAST OF FRYING PAN SHOALS DUE TO SWELL IN DEEPER
WATER...AND ALSO SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH DUE TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS
OCCURRING HERE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...S WINDS THROUGH TUE WILL BACK TO THE SE OR ESE
AND INCREASE FROM S TO N TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS BERYL...OR ITS
REMNANTS...APPROACH FROM THE SW AND THEN MOVE ACROSS OR IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS MAY BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND GUSTS TO THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT AND EARLY ON WED. SEAS OF 4 TO
5 FT MON MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT MON AFTERNOON AND MON
NIGHT. SEAS WILL NOT BEGIN TO RAMP UP UNTIL TUE NIGHT...BUILDING TO
7 TO 10 FT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO CAREFULLY FOLLOW THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXITING BERYL WILL KEEP STRONG WINDS AND
INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WED. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...THOUGH NOT SURE IF THEY WILL BE
TROPICAL STORM OR GALE...THOUGH THE END RESULT WILL BE THE SAME.
STRONG BACKING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS BERYL LIFTS
NORTHEAST...THOUGH EXACT TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. BRIEF
PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF BERYL WED NIGHT INTO THU
BUT WINDS BACK TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THU AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE WATERS
UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT OR SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE
PINCHED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE...WITH PROLONGED FETCH POTENTIALLY BUILDING SEAS HIGH ENOUGH
TO WARRANT SCA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
954 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST OHIO LATE
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED.
12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH AGREES WITH HRRR HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
INSTABILITY IS BUILDING QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO OVER 1000 J/KG IN
THE EASTERN COUNTIES BUT CIN IS STILL STRONG WITH VALUES BELOW
-150J/KG. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE CAP MAY BREAK NEAR THE CANTON YNG
AREA SO A 20% POP LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH THE WARM FRONT FINALLY
LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT A LAKE BREEZE. CONSEQUENTLY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN NW OH TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TIMING SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE SEVERE WEATHER BECAUSE OF DIURNAL
REASONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR IN
THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT BUT THINK THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY THE TIME IT GETS REALLY ACTIVE AGAIN. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS. A HALF
INCH OF RAIN SEEMS LIKELY MOST AREAS. THE PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE INDUCED STRATO CU APPEARS
LIKELY. MODELS NOW SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION PRECIP COULD GET GOING THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE USED
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING LOW REMAINS ON TRACK TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
FRI INTO SAT. WIDESPREAD SHRA SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE LOW ALONG WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. THE GFS LINGERS THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AND SHRA OVER THE AREA SUN WHILE THE ECMWF PULLS THE LOW OFF TO THE
NE FASTER BUT STILL SHOWS SOME MOISTURE LEFT AROUND THE AREA. WILL
INCREASE POP FOR SAT INTO SUN AND LOWER TEMPS A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
SCT CU WILL DEVELOP AROUND 16 TO 17Z AND BY MID AFTERNOON THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA SOMEWHERE AROUND THE AREA BUT
CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO TRY AND PUT IN TAFS. SOME OF THE
SHORT TERM HI RES MODELS SEEM TO BE LEANING TOWARD THE CAK TO YNG
AREA FOR THE BETTER POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT NOT SURE
WHY.
THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
TSRA TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE TOL AND FDY AREA.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND IN
WIDESPREAD SHRA FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
EVEN THROUGH WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT THE VERY
WARM AIR OVER THE COLDER LAKE SHOULD KEEP WINDS ON THE LAKE FROM
GETTING ABOVE 15 KNOTS ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
TUE MORNING SHIFTING THE FLOW TO WEST. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES TUE
NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AND MAY SEE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP AND LAST THRU WED OR WED NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO AND SHOULD DIMINISH THE FLOW FOR A
WHILE THU AS WINDS VEER TO NE. THE MODELS BRING A SLOW MOVING LOW NE
TOWARD LAKE ERIE THU NIGHT AND FRI. SHOULD SEE NE FLOW INCREASE
ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1215 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR WILL PREVAIL...OUTSIDE OF SCT TS ACTIVITY...THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NE OK AND NW AR TONIGHT. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY OF
THE FRONT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS WHICH ARE
EXPTD TO DVLP THIS AFTERNOON OVER SW OK COULD AFFECT THE KMLC TAF
SITE THIS EVENING AS WELL. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS NOT YIELDING ENUF
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE TEMPOS IN ANY TAF AT THIS POINT...AND WILL
INSTEAD STAY WITH CONSERVATIVE VCTS MENTION. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTER 06Z WITH NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12-18Z TUESDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL KS DOWN INTO
WESTERN OK. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS EAST
TODAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT AND NEARLY
PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT TO THE BOUNDARY. BAND OF MID CLOUD STRETCHES
FROM EASTERN OK UP INTO MO...WHERE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 12Z
NAM...SUGGEST THAT A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS MOISTURE
AXIS ALOFT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL BE
INITIATING OVER NW TX OR FAR SW OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A
SURFACE LOW AND AT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHERN TX TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...THE NAM
SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GET GOING THIS EVENING
/AROUND 03Z OR SO/ ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR WHERE THE LOW
LVL FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE CO-LOCATED. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
I HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AND CLOUD
COVER...OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. I
LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST OK
ALONE FOR REASONS STATED ABOVE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12 Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. MID CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM EARLY EVENING ON
AT ALL SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING TO NEAR A OKLAHOMA CITY/PONCA CITY LINE BY
00Z. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
AND HOW QUICKLY STORMS FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. FOLLOWED THE WARMER
MET GUIDANCE BUT THIS COULD STILL BE TOO COOL GIVEN THE WARM 850 MB
TEMPS/LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF THE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS LIMITED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING ALONG STALLED FRONT BEFORE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY LATE EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS GIVEN THE HIGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. TIMING WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING AND WILL LIKELY PLAY
HAVOC ON TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDING ON EXACT MCS EVOLUTION.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER JET STREAK DIVES SSE ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. GREATEST SEVERE/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE AT
LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY MCS ACTIVITY.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING. GENERALLY
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE WARMER ECMWF/COOLER MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
BY SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 71 90 70 87 / 40 40 50 30
FSM 70 91 69 89 / 50 40 40 30
MLC 70 89 69 88 / 50 30 50 30
BVO 64 89 64 85 / 20 40 50 20
FYV 65 87 62 83 / 50 40 40 30
BYV 68 87 63 82 / 50 40 40 30
MKO 67 89 67 86 / 50 40 50 30
MIO 66 89 65 84 / 30 40 50 30
F10 70 89 67 86 / 50 40 50 30
HHW 69 91 70 90 / 40 20 50 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
945 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL KS DOWN INTO
WESTERN OK. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS EAST
TODAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT AND NEARLY
PARELLEL FLOW ALOFT TO THE BOUNDARY. BAND OF MID CLOUD STRETCHES
FROM EASTERN OK UP INTO MO...WHERE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 12Z
NAM...SUGGEST THAT A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS MOISTURE
AXIS ALOFT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL BE
INITIATING OVER NW TX OR FAR SW OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A
SURFACE LOW AND AT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHERN TX TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...THE NAM
SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GET GOING THIS EVENING
/AROUND 03Z OR SO/ ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR WHERE THE LOW
LVL FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE CO-LOCATED. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
I HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AND CLOUD
COVER...OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. I
LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST OK
ALONE FOR REASONS STATED ABOVE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12 Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. MID CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN UP AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM EARLY EVENING ON
AT ALL SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING TO NEAR A OKLAHOMA CITY/PONCA CITY LINE BY
00Z. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
AND HOW QUICKLY STORMS FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. FOLLOWED THE WARMER
MET GUIDANCE BUT THIS COULD STILL BE TOO COOL GIVEN THE WARM 850 MB
TEMPS/LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF THE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS LIMITED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING ALONG STALLED FRONT BEFORE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY LATE EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS GIVEN THE HIGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. TIMING WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING AND WILL LIKELY PLAY
HAVOC ON TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDING ON EXACT MCS EVOLUTION.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER JET STREAK DIVES SSE ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. GREATEST SEVERE/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE AT
LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY MCS ACTIVITY.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING. GENERALLY
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE WARMER ECMWF/COOLER MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
BY SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 91 70 88 67 / 20 40 50 30
FSM 95 69 90 68 / 10 40 50 30
MLC 91 69 88 68 / 10 40 40 40
BVO 93 62 87 64 / 20 30 50 30
FYV 90 63 86 62 / 20 40 50 30
BYV 90 66 85 61 / 20 40 30 30
MKO 91 69 88 67 / 20 40 50 30
MIO 90 65 86 64 / 20 40 40 30
F10 91 69 87 68 / 20 40 50 40
HHW 92 71 90 69 / 10 30 30 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
837 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GUST FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED MY FAR SERN ZONES...WHERE
LANCASTER SAW A GUST TO 52KT AS THE STORMS MOVED THROUGH. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE OR LARGE
HAIL IS OVER.
FURTHER WEST A SMALL LINE OF STORMS HAS FORMED ALONG WHAT LOOKS TO
BE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...AS DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S BEHIND THIS SURFACE TROF. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER THEY
WILL TREK ACROSS MY CENTRAL ZONES HERE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
THE HRRR AND ARW TARGET DIFFERENT PARTS OF MY FCST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT WITH THIS SMALL MCS...BUT ACTIVITY SHUD BEGIN TO
DWINDLE AS WE LOSE HEATING AFTER SUNDOWN SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING MORE RAIN.
OVERNIGHT CLEARING WILL ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM IN AREAS THAT HAVE
HAD RAIN. THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT WITHOUT MUCH OF A DYNAMIC
PUSH. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE M50S TO M60S...WHICH IS
ABOUT NORMAL FOR AN EARLY SUMMER DAY.
INSTABILITY GOES UP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY BEHIND THE MAIN
FRONT ON WED. PLUS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SWING THROUGH
THE REGION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHCS OF THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SC/SE. SMALL HAIL GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THESE CELLS WED
LATE MORNING AND AFTN. MAXES WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN TUES...AND
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE SE WILL STILL BE 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL ON
MAXES WITH NEARLY FULL SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ESEWD FM THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN AND TRACK ALONG THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER REACHING
NRN NEW ENGLAND ON THURS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM AND PUSH EWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA WED NGT. NLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EWD INTO PA FM THE UPPER
MS VLY WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION ON
THURS. BERYL WILL LIFT NEWD FM THE NC COAST INTO THE NRN ATLC BY
THE END OF THE PD. A STG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SEWD THRU
THE CENTRAL STATES SHOULD FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVR THE SRN
PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH SHOULD TRACK NWD INTO THE OH VLY/GRT LKS
FRI-FRI NGT.
THUR NGT-FRI MORNING LOOKS RATHER CHILLY ESP IN THE NRN TIER WITH
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND PWS BLW NORMAL. OVRRNG TYPE RAINS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH THE AREA FRI-FRI NGT AS THE PLAINS SYS EVOLVES
NEWD INTO THE LWR LKS. MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH REGARDING THIS SYSTEM
SO OPTED FOR EVEN MODEL COMPROMISE SPLIT BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS
AND PROGRESSIVE EURO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A H5 TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE NE
STATES/NEW ENG WITH THE LOCAL AREA UNDER NW FLOW ON THE SW EDGE
OF THE LOW CENTER. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAO IS FCST TO
APPROACH MINUS 3 WHICH WOULD FAVOR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
HOWEVER THE GEFS WANTS TO REBOUND HEIGHTS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE THE
ECENS KEEPS A LW TROUGH IN PLACE WITH CLOSED LOW OVR NRN NEW ENG.
CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND THEREFORE HEDGED LONG TERM
GRIDS TWD THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOLID LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
PUSH EAST OF MDT AND LNS BTWN 01Z-02Z. MEANWHILE...SCT SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTION BTWN 01Z-03Z AT JST/AOO/UNV/IPT AND BTWN 04Z-07Z AT MDT
AND LNS. BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME IFR VSBYS ARND DAWN ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF DENSE FOG THERE.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU THE REGION ON WED...LIKELY
PRODUCING A FEW AFTN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IN TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...PM RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GUST FRONT HAS FINALLY CLEARED MY FAR SERN ZONES...WHERE
LANCASTER SAW A GUST TO 52KT AS THE STORMS MOVED THROUGH. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE OR LARGE
HAIL IS OVER.
FURTHER WEST A SMALL LINE OF STORMS HAS FORMED ALONG WHAT LOOKS TO
BE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...AS DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S BEHIND THIS SURFACE TROF. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER THEY
WILL TREK ACROSS MY CENTRAL ZONES HERE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
THE HRRR AND ARW TARGET DIFFERENT PARTS OF MY FCST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT WITH THIS SMALL MCS...BUT ACTIVITY SHUD BEGIN TO
DWINDLE AS WE LOSE HEATING AFTER SUNDOWN SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING MORE RAIN.
OVERNIGHT CLEARING WILL ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM IN AREAS THAT HAVE
HAD RAIN. THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT WITHOUT MUCH OF A DYNAMIC
PUSH. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE M50S TO M60S...WHICH IS
ABOUT NORMAL FOR AN EARLY SUMMER DAY.
INSTABILITY GOES UP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY BEHIND THE MAIN
FRONT ON WED. PLUS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SWING THROUGH
THE REGION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHCS OF THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SC/SE. SMALL HAIL GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THESE CELLS WED
LATE MORNING AND AFTN. MAXES WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN TUES...AND
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE SE WILL STILL BE 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL ON
MAXES WITH NEARLY FULL SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ESEWD FM THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN AND TRACK ALONG THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER REACHING
NRN NEW ENGLAND ON THURS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM AND PUSH EWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA WED NGT. NLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EWD INTO PA FM THE UPPER
MS VLY WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION ON
THURS. BERYL WILL LIFT NEWD FM THE NC COAST INTO THE NRN ATLC BY
THE END OF THE PD. A STG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SEWD THRU
THE CENTRAL STATES SHOULD FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVR THE SRN
PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH SHOULD TRACK NWD INTO THE OH VLY/GRT LKS
FRI-FRI NGT.
THUR NGT-FRI MORNING LOOKS RATHER CHILLY ESP IN THE NRN TIER WITH
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND PWS BLW NORMAL. OVRRNG TYPE RAINS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH THE AREA FRI-FRI NGT AS THE PLAINS SYS EVOLVES
NEWD INTO THE LWR LKS. MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH REGARDING THIS SYSTEM
SO OPTED FOR EVEN MODEL COMPROMISE SPLIT BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS
AND PROGRESSIVE EURO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A H5 TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE NE
STATES/NEW ENG WITH THE LOCAL AREA UNDER NW FLOW ON THE SW EDGE
OF THE LOW CENTER. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAO IS FCST TO
APPROACH MINUS 3 WHICH WOULD FAVOR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
HOWEVER THE GEFS WANTS TO REBOUND HEIGHTS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE THE
ECENS KEEPS A LW TROUGH IN PLACE WITH CLOSED LOW OVR NRN NEW ENG.
CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND THEREFORE HEDGED LONG TERM
GRIDS TWD THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM AVIATION CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND ONGOING AND DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AREA-WIDE. TRIED TO TIME MAIN AREA OF STORMS THROUGH
EACH AIRFIELD...HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF A TSRA AT ANY TIME THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL EXIT THE EASTERN AREA AROUND 23Z AND
THEN AREAS OF BR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM FOG POSS. ISOLD AFTN SHRA/TSRA POSS.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
SAT...THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/TYBURSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
704 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE MID STATE AT 21Z.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. RUC AND WRF SOLUTIONS
DO NOT SHOW ANY REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WHICH
ROUGHLY COVERS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL THEREFORE BEGIN
TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
OTW...THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS WEAKENED. LAPS
DATA SHOWED CAPES APPROACHING 3,000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WHEN THE TSTM WIND DMG WAS ONGOING. CURRENTLY...CAPES ARE 2400 MAX
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. SO ALL IN ALL...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT
MORE SEVERE WX WILL OCCUR. I WILL HOWEVER...BOOST POPS TO 50
PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING.
THE PRECIP SHOULD END BY 06Z.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE PUSHING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AND
PUT AN END TO THE CONVECTION BY 06Z FOR THE CSV AREA. OTW...WILL
SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSV
AREA WHERE VSBYS OF 1-3 SM WILL BE COMMON BY 12Z.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME FEW/SCT AFT CU.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WX PROBABILITIES...THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
AT MID AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE
PLATEAU...AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER WEST KY JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS MID TN. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SETTLE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT SETUP
APPEARS PRETTY GOOD FOR SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME DRIER OVER MID TN...BUT WITH
FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A COUPLE OF WEAK
IMPULSES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL ON
WEDNESDAY IF ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
DOWN SLIGHTLY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN USUALLY DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CROSS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. SPC
HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD ALSO BE
EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW ALL THE INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER...BUT A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYS...WHICH IS PRETTY RARE IN RECENT HISTORY. THE COOL PERIOD WILL
BE BRIEF. RISING HEIGHTS WILL PUMP TEMPERATURES UP AGAIN WELL INTO
THE 80S SUNDAY AND SOME 90S FOR MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS WILL RETURN AFTER THAT AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME
DEVELOPS...THEN THE AREA GETS ON THE FRINGE OF NW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW (MCS PATTERN).
13
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF CONVECTION INTO DFW AIRPORTS TONIGHT
AND LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR POTENTIAL ACROSS WACO BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST WITH
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS. SOUTH FLOW 7-12 KTS WILL BE THE RULE...THOUGH WINDS COULD
BRIEFLY BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.
TWO BOUNDARIES OF CONCERN ARE IN QUESTION. A SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHED FROM NEAR ABILENE...TO BOWIE...TO SOUTH OF NORMAN
OKLAHOMA BACK TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW NORTH OF MIDLAND TEXAS.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...A STALLED FRONT WAS FROM NEAR LUBBOCK...TO
SNYDER...TO NORTH OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA. WE THINK BETTER CONVERGENCE
FOR STORM INITIATION TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONT VERSUS THE SURFACE
TROUGH BASED ON WIND DIRECTION AND BEST CONVERGENCE POTENTIAL
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT.
A ROGUE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY FORM OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH BY
00Z NORTHWEST OF DFW AIRPORT AND WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.
WRF AND SREF MODELS SHOW INITIATION JUST NORTHWEST OF DFW BY 02Z...
WITH NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS INDICATING A LATER TRENDS MORE IN THE
04Z-6Z TIME FRAME FOR THE METRO AIRPORTS. HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE A
MEAN AND INTRODUCE VCTS/CB FOR DFW METRO AIRPORTS IN THE 02Z-05Z
TIME FRAME WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT DUE TO
MESOSCALE NATURE OF DEVELOPMENT. TIMES AND POSSIBLY BRIEF TEMPO
GROUPS CAN BE INSERTED BY THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ONCE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN. STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE...DESPITE SOME MARGINAL CINH DEVELOPING BY MID EVENING
WITH LAPSE RATES ALOFT FAIRLY STEEP.
WACO COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WELL AFTER 06Z...BUT WITH ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH IN MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...HAVE
ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. WILL INTRODUCE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LOW MVFR
CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
LATE THIS MORNING...A SUBTLE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...TO JUST EAST OF CHILDRESS TX...SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
LUBBOCK TX. THE BOUNDARY CONNECTS UP WITH A DRYLINE OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. GOOD INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT AS THE FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS AND STALLS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING...LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE
4 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME. PROJECTED STORM MOTION BRINGS ACTIVITY
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR NOW...WITH HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATER
TONIGHT AS FAR EAST AS A PARIS TO DALLAS TO COMANCHE LINE. POPS
MAY BE ADJUSTED LATER IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTHEAST
THE FRONT PROGRESSES BEFORE STALLING...AND HOW MUCH COVERAGE
OCCURS AS STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING AND SPC
SLIGHT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF
THE CWA.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
A FEW CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK THAT SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH TEXAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
STALL NORTHWEST OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SOME SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...MAINLY THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS STORMS APPROACH THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THEY WILL ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY AND
SHOULD WEAKEN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION ON ANY SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
THERE WILL EVEN BE A POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...
WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND DECREASE POPS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END THURSDAY EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON
SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS IN
THE 70S. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 74 93 74 92 / 10 20 10 30 10
WACO, TX 93 71 92 72 92 / 5 10 5 10 10
PARIS, TX 90 70 89 70 90 / 10 10 20 40 20
DENTON, TX 92 72 91 71 91 / 10 30 20 30 20
MCKINNEY, TX 91 71 91 71 91 / 10 20 20 30 20
DALLAS, TX 93 75 93 74 92 / 5 20 10 30 10
TERRELL, TX 92 72 91 71 91 / 5 10 10 30 10
CORSICANA, TX 92 72 91 72 91 / 5 10 5 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 91 69 91 71 91 / 5 5 5 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 95 69 94 70 91 / 10 20 20 30 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1236 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF
SITES ESPECIALLY KLBB. HAVE MAINTAINED A VCTS AT KCDS GIVEN MODEL
TRENDS OF SUPERCELL SPLITS AND POTENTIAL FOR LEFT MOVERS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BELOW 15 KT. STRATUS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK TUE BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ATTM TO MENTION FOR KCDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS SOUTHEAST OF A PADUCAH TO POST LINE THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND LATEST HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. ALL PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT ON ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FNT THIS AFTER 21Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SBCAPE IN WARM SECTOR AROUND 1700 J/KG
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35KT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A
JET STREAK NEAR TWC @ 12Z WHICH LENGHTENS THE HODOGRAPH SOME THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION THAN CAN GET GOING.
STRONG CAP THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE LAST FEW DAYS MAY STILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND EXTENT OF PRECIP
ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN STORMS TO INCREASE MENTION SOUTHEAST OF
LUBBOCK ALONG EDGE OF EML.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
SHORT TERM...
THE BROAD UA LOW CONTINUED TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE ENE TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY SKIRTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A BRIEFLY STRONG ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...THAT HAS SINCE SHIFTED EAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
WHAT IS OF CONCERN IS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE SAID STORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COINCIDING WITH
A NEARBY PACIFIC FRONT THAT HAS INTERSECTED THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES
AND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
/AOA 08Z/ AND THEN THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS /AOA 10Z/. A
LINGERING RETREATING DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
OVERCOME BY THE FRONT AS IS LIKELY WHY THE HRRR AND GFS SOLUTIONS
ARE EAGER TO DISPLAY PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.... MORESO
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THE FRONTAL PUSH IS NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG BUT
IS QUITE DRY WITH 07Z METARS DISPLAYING 15 KT WIND SPEEDS AND SINGLE
DIGITS DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. CURRENT THINKING IS
THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT IS JUST TOO FAR NORTH AND THE GFS AND HRRR
SOLUTIONS DISPLAYING PRECIP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
06Z AND 07Z RESPECTIVELY WAS OBVIOUSLY OVER DONE. THUS THE DRY NAM
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND
THUS WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE UA LOW MARCHES
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND THE FRONT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE SERN ZONES WHERE IT IS THERE
THAT IT STALLS /FROM NEAR PADUCAH SW TO DENVER CITY/. SOUTHERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY PROGGED PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES AND PERSISTING DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
TO MID 90S...THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK AOA 29/00Z. AS FLOW ALOFT EVOLVES TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW...A
SUBTLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS EVENING...THUS SERVING AS THE SYNOPTIC SPARK POSSIBLY
NEEDED TO INITIATE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH AN UNIMPRESSIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE. SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.5-2.5 KG/KG...INVERTED-V
SOUNDING PROFILES...VEERING WIND PROFILES...A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SUBTLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUGGEST THE PROSPECT FOR
STORMS TO APPROACH STRONG LEVELS...AND PERHAPS BE CAPABLE OF
ORGANIZATION WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WITH
EMPHASIS ACROSS THE SERN ZONES...COMMENCING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHIFT BEST PRECIP EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY WILL AID MIXING OF THE DRYLINE EWD
TO NEAR THE ERN BORDER OF THE FCST AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR IT LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING WITH
PREVIOUS FCST SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKING FINE. WILL THEN SEE UPPER
LEVEL VEER TO THE NW AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW
FROM THE CTNL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY TOWARD ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
INTO THE NERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT
FROM A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT...
THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW...AND THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE NW
OF THE FCST AREA. 00Z RUN HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COOLER AND DRIER
SOLUTION WITH NW FLOW PRECIP NOT IN THE MODELS UNTIL FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL RUN NEAR MOS POPS AND TEMPS IN THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 93 57 89 57 / 10 10 10 10 10
TULIA 59 92 61 89 59 / 10 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 62 95 63 92 61 / 20 10 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 59 97 64 95 60 / 10 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 63 98 64 96 63 / 20 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 61 96 64 95 60 / 10 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 61 98 64 96 61 / 20 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 67 97 68 94 65 / 20 20 20 10 20
SPUR 66 97 67 96 65 / 30 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 69 99 70 98 67 / 30 20 20 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1039 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS SOUTHEAST OF A PADUCAH TO POST LINE THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND LATEST HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. ALL PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT ON ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FNT THIS AFTER 21Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SBCAPE IN WARM SECTOR AROUND 1700 J/KG
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35KT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A
JET STREAK NEAR TWC @ 12Z WHICH LENGHTENS THE HODOGRAPH SOME THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION THAN CAN GET GOING.
STRONG CAP THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE LAST FEW DAYS MAY STILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND EXTENT OF PRECIP
ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN STORMS TO INCREASE MENTION SOUTHEAST OF
LUBBOCK ALONG EDGE OF EML.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND DECLINING SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY POSE A BRIEF THREAT
OF VFR-MVFR FOG...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB AS THE LATEST KLBB METAR
REPORT VISIBILITY DECREASING TO 7SM AND KCDS REMAINED AT 10SM.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS AOA 10 MPH IS BEGINNING TO
AFFECT KLBB /AND WILL AFFECT KCDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO/ AS A
WIND DIRECTION FROM THE WNW WERE REPORTED BY THE LATEST METAR.
THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS MAY MITIGATE FOGGY CONDITIONS AND THUS WILL
OPT NOT TO ADD A MENTION. WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. HAVE
ADDED A VCTS AND PROB30 MENTION AT KLBB AND KCDS RESPECTIVELY FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FOLLOWED BY A SOUTH WIND TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
SHORT TERM...
THE BROAD UA LOW CONTINUED TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE ENE TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY SKIRTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A BRIEFLY STRONG ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...THAT HAS SINCE SHIFTED EAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
WHAT IS OF CONCERN IS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE SAID STORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COINCIDING WITH
A NEARBY PACIFIC FRONT THAT HAS INTERSECTED THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES
AND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
/AOA 08Z/ AND THEN THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS /AOA 10Z/. A
LINGERING RETREATING DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
OVERCOME BY THE FRONT AS IS LIKELY WHY THE HRRR AND GFS SOLUTIONS
ARE EAGER TO DISPLAY PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.... MORESO
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THE FRONTAL PUSH IS NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG BUT
IS QUITE DRY WITH 07Z METARS DISPLAYING 15 KT WIND SPEEDS AND SINGLE
DIGITS DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. CURRENT THINKING IS
THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT IS JUST TOO FAR NORTH AND THE GFS AND HRRR
SOLUTIONS DISPLAYING PRECIP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
06Z AND 07Z RESPECTIVELY WAS OBVIOUSLY OVER DONE. THUS THE DRY NAM
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND
THUS WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE UA LOW MARCHES
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND THE FRONT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE SERN ZONES WHERE IT IS THERE
THAT IT STALLS /FROM NEAR PADUCAH SW TO DENVER CITY/. SOUTHERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY PROGGED PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES AND PERSISTING DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
TO MID 90S...THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK AOA 29/00Z. AS FLOW ALOFT EVOLVES TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW...A
SUBTLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS EVENING...THUS SERVING AS THE SYNOPTIC SPARK POSSIBLY
NEEDED TO INITIATE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH AN UNIMPRESSIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE. SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.5-2.5 KG/KG...INVERTED-V
SOUNDING PROFILES...VEERING WIND PROFILES...A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SUBTLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUGGEST THE PROSPECT FOR
STORMS TO APPROACH STRONG LEVELS...AND PERHAPS BE CAPABLE OF
ORGANIZATION WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WITH
EMPHASIS ACROSS THE SERN ZONES...COMMENCING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHIFT BEST PRECIP EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY WILL AID MIXING OF THE DRYLINE EWD
TO NEAR THE ERN BORDER OF THE FCST AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR IT LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING WITH
PREVIOUS FCST SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKING FINE. WILL THEN SEE UPPER
LEVEL VEER TO THE NW AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW
FROM THE CTNL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY TOWARD ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
INTO THE NERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT
FROM A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT...
THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW...AND THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE NW
OF THE FCST AREA. 00Z RUN HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COOLER AND DRIER
SOLUTION WITH NW FLOW PRECIP NOT IN THE MODELS UNTIL FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL RUN NEAR MOS POPS AND TEMPS IN THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 55 93 57 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
TULIA 90 59 92 61 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 92 62 95 63 92 / 10 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 93 59 97 64 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 93 63 98 64 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 94 61 96 64 95 / 20 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 94 61 98 64 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 94 67 97 68 94 / 20 20 20 20 10
SPUR 95 66 97 67 96 / 30 30 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 97 69 99 70 98 / 30 30 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
234 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...
THE BROAD UA LOW CONTINUED TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE ENE TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY SKIRTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A BRIEFLY STRONG ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...THAT HAS SINCE SHIFTED EAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
WHAT IS OF CONCERN IS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE SAID STORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COINCIDING WITH
A NEARBY PACIFIC FRONT THAT HAS INTERSECTED THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES
AND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
/AOA 08Z/ AND THEN THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS /AOA 10Z/. A
LINGERING RETREATING DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
OVERCOME BY THE FRONT AS IS LIKELY WHY THE HRRR AND GFS SOLUTIONS
ARE EAGER TO DISPLAY PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.... MORESO
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THE FRONTAL PUSH IS NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG BUT
IS QUITE DRY WITH 07Z METARS DISPLAYING 15 KT WIND SPEEDS AND SINGLE
DIGITS DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. CURRENT THINKING IS
THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT IS JUST TOO FAR NORTH AND THE GFS AND HRRR
SOLUTIONS DISPLAYING PRECIP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
06Z AND 07Z RESPECTIVELY WAS OBVIOUSLY OVER DONE. THUS THE DRY NAM
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND
THUS WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE UA LOW MARCHES
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND THE FRONT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE SERN ZONES WHERE IT IS THERE
THAT IT STALLS /FROM NEAR PADUCAH SW TO DENVER CITY/. SOUTHERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY PROGGED PWATS OF 1.65 INCHES AND PERSISTING DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
TO MID 90S...THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK AOA 29/00Z. AS FLOW ALOFT EVOLVES TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW...A
SUBTLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS EVENING...THUS SERVING AS THE SYNOPTIC SPARK POSSIBLY
NEEDED TO INITIATE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH AN UNIMPRESSIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE. SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.5-2.5 KG/KG...INVERTED-V
SOUNDING PROFILES...VEERING WIND PROFILES...A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SUBTLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUGGEST THE PROSPECT FOR
STORMS TO APPROACH STRONG LEVELS...AND PERHAPS BE CAPABLE OF
ORGANIZATION WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WITH
EMPHASIS ACROSS THE SERN ZONES...COMMENCING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHIFT BEST PRECIP EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY WILL AID MIXING OF THE DRYLINE EWD
TO NEAR THE ERN BORDER OF THE FCST AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR IT LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING WITH
PREVIOUS FCST SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKING FINE. WILL THEN SEE UPPER
LEVEL VEER TO THE NW AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW
FROM THE CTNL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY TOWARD ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
INTO THE NERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT
FROM A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT...
THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW...AND THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE NW
OF THE FCST AREA. 00Z RUN HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COOLER AND DRIER
SOLUTION WITH NW FLOW PRECIP NOT IN THE MODELS UNTIL FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL RUN NEAR MOS POPS AND TEMPS IN THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 55 93 57 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
TULIA 90 59 92 61 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 92 62 95 63 92 / 10 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 93 59 97 64 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 93 63 98 64 96 / 10 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 94 61 96 64 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 94 61 98 64 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 94 67 97 68 94 / 20 20 20 20 10
SPUR 95 66 97 67 96 / 20 30 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 97 69 99 70 98 / 20 30 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED...LEAVING SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH PATCHY LOW STRATUS OVERTAKING THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AFTER
09Z. THE GFS/NAM MOS PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO DEPICT 6-12 HRS OF MVFR
CIGS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BUT THE RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 2 KM. GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR CIGS
TO COME IN AROUND 09Z BRIEFLY...DISSIPATE...THEN RETURN AT OR
AFTER 12Z...I HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE RAP. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WHICH WOULD LIKELY ALLOW STRATUS DECK
TO BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET LOWER OWING TO LESS MIXING AND THE
ANTICIPATE LACK OF CLOUD COVER LATE COULD FINALLY RESULT IN THE
GFS/NAM BEING CORRECT AND EGG ON MY FACE. WE ARE JUST NOW SEEING
STRATUS DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WHICH IS ON PAR WITH THE
PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN CONSERVATIVELY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM NEAR HASKELL TO COLORADO CITY BEFORE 00Z. THE BIG COUNTRY AND
NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY HAVE THE BEST RAIN PROSPECTS GIVEN THE WNW
STEERING FLOW BUT THE STRONGER CAP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SHOULD
WEAKEN STORMS AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY. I DID INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA AT KABI AFTER 00Z BUT LEFT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS CONVECTION FREE GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL MOVE THAT FAR FROM THE BOUNDARY.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/
UPDATE...
SEE UPDATE DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO REMOVE POPS FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD.
21
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU AROUND 5 KFT WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BUT MID
LEVEL DEBRIS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER PECOS COUNTY WILL PROVIDE
FEW/SCT150 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
BUT WE MAY STILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS /MAINLY AFTER 05Z/ AT
KSJT AND KABI. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT...STALLING FROM A WICHITA FALLS...TO JAYTON...TO
SEMINOLE LINE BY 18Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THIS FRONT WITH
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINING FAIRLY WELL
CAPPED. A WNW STEERING FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT SOME OF THESE
STORMS INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS...
SO NO MENTION HAS BEEN MADE.
THE OTHER FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE TIMING...DURATION AND
EXPANSE OF THE LOW STRATUS. THE MODELS HAVE DONE AN EXTREMELY POOR
JOB WITH THE STRATUS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS AND I AM LEANING MORE
TOWARDS PERSISTENCE AT THIS POINT. WE WILL HAVE A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
JET AND HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE SPORADIC NATURE OF
THE CLOUD COVER HAS LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT OVER FORECASTING OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. WITH THAT...I HAVE CUT BACK THE DURATION OF THE CIGS
AT ALL SITES /EXCEPT AT KABI WHICH WAS ALREADY VFR/ TO MAINLY
SEEING MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 12-16Z. WE WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME BRIEF CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 6-12Z BUT WILL HANDLE THESE
WITH UPDATES AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/
SHORT TERM...
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH STRATOCUMULUS WAS MOVING THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. DRYLINE WAS AGAINST THE SW
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO START UP IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NEAR FORT STOCKTON.
WITH THE DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY THE
NW CORNER OF CROCKETT COUNTY HAS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LEE
TROUGH ALONG WITH EXPECTED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN...AND MAY SEE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY AS
THE STORMS MOVE EAST. BEST CHANCE HOWEVER WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH GFS SFC CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS OF 45
KTS...COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MAIN THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY... CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND.
LONG TERM...
STALLED FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING. GFS/NAM GENERATES HIGHEST QPF ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT WITH MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE DRYLINE. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE BIG COUNTRY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST FOR MONDAY EVENING. MAIN
SEVERE THREATS FROM ANY STORMS MONDAY EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN/EXPAND
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 95
TO 100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN
CAPPED BOTH DAYS BUT A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY SO HELD ONTO
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THIS AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. FRONT LOOKS TO BE DRY...OTHER THAN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE BIG COUNTRY. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. GFS INDICATES
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF UPPER LOW POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SCENARIO
SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 91 72 97 70 / 10 20 20 10 20
SAN ANGELO 70 93 71 99 71 / 10 20 20 10 10
JUNCTION 71 91 72 95 73 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
617 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
341 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
AT 3 PM...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
TWIN CITIES. THE MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING...
THE WIND GUSTS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 2C COOLER
THAN THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU RULE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...
WENT WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOP. THE 29.12Z MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL
BE STRONG 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS FORCING WILL OVERCOME THE DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF INCH ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GEM...GFS...AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
MODERATE TO STRONG 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS LOCATED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...THERE IS
MODERATE TO STRONG 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS
LESS ROBUST WITH ITS PRECIPITATION. THIS IS DUE TO A FURTHER
SOUTHEAST LOW TRACK AND A BIT MORE DRY AIR LOCATED AT 850 MB.
SINCE THERE HAS BEEN A MORE OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GEM...
GFS...AND NAM TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THEM. WITH
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 2C...
LOWERED THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE SET IN THESE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
341 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE 29.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AWAY
FROM THE REGION. WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN CANADA AND NOT A REAL STRONG KICKER UPSTREAM...THERE STILL
IS NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL ON WHEN THIS WILL ULTIMATELY OCCUR. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AS A RESULT...
STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE CONSALL GRIDS.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST AT DOING THIS. MEANWHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS A RESULT OF HOW FAST DOES THE TROUGH DEVELOP ALONG
THE WEST COAST. LOOKING AT THE TRENDS OF THE CFS VERSION 2...THE
GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
617 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
SOME QUESTION THIS EVENING AS TO WHETHER THE CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET OR NOT. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
A MIX OF OPEN AND CLOSED CELLULAR CLOUDS STRUCTURES. THE MAJORITY
OF THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA LOOK TO BE OPEN CELLULAR AND
EXPECT THESE TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. THE MORE CLOSED CELLULAR
CLOUDS AND THOSE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ARE OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THE 29.18Z NAM BRINGS
THE MOISTURE FIELD WITH THESE CLOUDS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
WEAKENS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO POINT THERE IS LITTLE FORCING
WHEN THE MOISTURE ARRIVES. PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED THE CLOUDS
WOULD SURVIVE AND ARRIVE WITH THE MOISTURE FIELD AND HAVE
CONTINUED THIS FOR CONTINUITY BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
ONCE THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING IT REMAINS THAT WAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. IN FACT...THAT IS WHAT THE 29.19Z RUN
OF THE HRRR SHOWS HAPPENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
341 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
639 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
304 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON CONVECTION CHANCES TODAY AND ANY
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA INSIDE UPPER TROUGHING
COVERING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHILE RIDGING WAS
PRESENT IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND A STREAM OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT HELPED DEVELOP A
LARGE EXPANSE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LAST EVENING. A LOT OF THIS
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY LOSS IS A COMBINATION OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND DRY ADVECTION ON SOUTH WINDS...NOTED BY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER IOWA. NOTE THAT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S
EXIST...BUT THIS IS MOSTLY UNDER THE PRECIPITATION. SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS POSITIONED FROM NEAR DULUTH MN...TO ALBERT LEA MN AND
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST KS. PLENTY OF WARM AIR REMAINS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS WERE AROUND 20C.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...850MB TEMPS DROP OFF TO 13C AT ABR...8C AT
BIS AND 2C AT GGW. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AS WELL DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR...NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AS WELL WITH A DRY SLOT IN PLACE.
TODAY...
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO SLIDE EAST...GIVING THE COLD FRONT A
PUSH EASTWARD. ONGOING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN
NATURE AS THEY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...DUE TO
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE QUESTIONS THEN FOR THE
AFTERNOON ARE:
1. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT - PLUME OF LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT UNDER THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO STILL EXIST RIGHT INTO THE AFTERNOON. ENVISION THAT PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP IN THIS AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...ENOUGH
THAT MIXING TO THE 850MB TEMPS OF 14-16C PROGGED AT 18Z WOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS RESULTS IN MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT WITH MLCIN DOWN NEAR 0 J/KG.
2. DOES CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCUR - 0-2KM CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT
IS PRESENT...WEAK...BUT LIKELY ENOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF MLCIN TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. IN FACT...IT IS HARD TO FIND A MODEL THAT DOES
NOT INITIATE ON THE FRONT.
3. WHERE IS THE FRONT AT INITIATION - THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 28.00Z NAM DOES NOT INITIATE UNTIL
THE FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA (APPROX 21Z)...THOUGH AT 18Z THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 28.00Z ECMWF/GEM REGIONAL AND HIRES-ARW
MODELS ARE SIMILAR TO THE NAM. THE 28.00Z GFS AND SPC WRF-NMM
MODELS INITIATE IN THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT A
50 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST END...TAPERING TO 20 PERCENT
NEAR LA CROSSE.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...0-6KM SHEAR IS 40-50 KT ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...PLENTY FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
MLCIN LENDS CONVECTION TO LIKELY FORM A SQUALL LINE...BUT INITIAL
CELLS COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND 5-10 KTS OF 0-1KM
SHEAR WOULD TEND TO RULE OUT TORNADO THREAT. DRY SLOT COMING IN OVER
THE FRONT WILL HELP TO INCREASE DCAPE UP TO 1000-1200 J/KG OR
SO...THEREFORE...DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND DAMAGE. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME HAIL TOO GIVEN LOWERING WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM
THE DRY AIR.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BREEZY WEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE STILL WARM WEST OF THE FRONT AS THE
850MB TEMP FALL DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
MODELS TAKE THE UPPER LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS LIFTING
AWAY FROM THE AREA...500MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER THE AREA...
USHERING IN THE BEGINNING OF A COOL PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A
SHORTWAVE INDICATED TO COME ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. GETTING BACK TO TONIGHT...SOMETHING INTERESTING IN MODELS
IS A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT 00Z.
IT APPEARS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE UNDER THIS
SHORTWAVE. AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTHEAST...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD IMPACT TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES IN THE EVENING...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE 28.00Z SPC WRF-NMM...NAM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS.
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT MIXING AND A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE FOR BOTH
LOWS AND HIGHS. TEMPS COULD FALL LATE TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS
DRIVE COOLER 850MB AIR INTO THE AREA (TEMPS DOWN TO 4-6C AT 00Z)
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH ALLOWS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS TO BE EXPECTED...THE
850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...DROPPING TO 2-4C BY 18Z WEDNESDAY
OR 1.5-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS COOLER AIR SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY DROP INTO THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
UPPER 30S AT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MIXING AT MOST
WOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ON WEDNESDAY. NOTE...
THIS IS STILL FAR FROM THE RECORD COLD HIGH OF 49 AT LA CROSSE SET
IN 1897. DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
CLOUDS DO LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE...DOWNSTREAM OF
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AREA OF SOUTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY. A LARGE EXPANSE OF
SHOWERS COULD BE GOING ON OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO NEBRASKA TOO AHEAD
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ALL DEPENDS IF THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST
TOWARDS MINNESOTA LIKE THE 28.00Z NAM/ECMWF. SHOULD THE 28.00Z
GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN VERIFY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO DIG
MORE SOUTH...WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE DRY. FOR NOW...STUCK WITH A
BLEND APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES SOUTH AND
WEST OF I-94. NEITHER SITUATION OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACK PRODUCES
ANY CAPE...AND IF ANYTHING THE SCENARIO LOOKS MORE WINTER-LIKE.
THEREFORE...PULLED THUNDER MENTION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS
COOL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
304 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
OVERALL...THE 28.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE MEAN. THE MODELS ALL
SUGGEST UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...
THEN SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH CONNECT BACK TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT POTENT
SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS DROPPING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY...IF
IT CONTINUES TO DIG LIKE THE 28.00Z GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN SHOW...WE
COULD END UP WITH A REALLY CHILLY PERIOD. THESE MODELS ALL WRAP UP
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN IS THE COLDEST OF THEM ALL...WITH A RAINY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S. THIS IS THE OUTLIER...BUT DEFINITELY
GOES TO SHOW WHAT COULD HAPPEN WITH THAT POTENT SHORTWAVE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE
IDEA...WHICH OUTSIDE OF A COOL AND POSSIBLY WET THURSDAY...ALLOWS
FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AND CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT. SINCE THE
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT WITH BOTH IDEAS PLAUSIBLE...HAVE WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. LOOKS
LIKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE. COULD SEE SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS TOO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
639 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KLSE IN THE 12-13Z TIMEFRAME.
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO INTO THE 4-5 KFT RANGE AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO AROUND 6 SM.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS KRST DRY...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING A
SHIFT TO WEST WINDS AND INCREASING TO AROUND 16 KTS BY 20Z WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHERE
THE STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THIS COULD OCCUR JUST EAST OF KLSE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AND SCT050 CB AT KLSE
FROM 21Z THROUGH 00Z. IF THE STORMS IMPACT KLSE THEY WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT KLSE BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 21 Z. PLAN
ON SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
459 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AT THE UPPER END OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN...
IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA AND ALONG THE MINNESOTA
RIVER WHICH DRAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI...WILL RESULT IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER RISING IN OUR FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY...ONLY
WABASHA IS FORECAST TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE DURING THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...MANY OTHER LOCATIONS UP AND DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
COULD APPROACH FLOOD STAGE. SEE THE LATEST ESF AND RVS STATEMENTS
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FORECASTS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT
WABASHA WILL EXCEED FLOOD STAGE...FLOOD WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS
MAY BE ISSUED. LOOKING AHEAD AT PRECIPITATION FOR THIS
WEEK...FOR THE MOST PART ONLY A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED...LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE MISSISSIPPI.
HOWEVER...THE 28.00Z CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COME THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RIGHT
NOW THIS MODEL IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
304 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
459 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
304 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON CONVECTION CHANCES TODAY AND ANY
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA INSIDE UPPER TROUGHING
COVERING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHILE RIDGING WAS
PRESENT IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND A STREAM OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT HELPED DEVELOP A
LARGE EXPANSE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LAST EVENING. A LOT OF THIS
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY LOSS IS A COMBINATION OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND DRY ADVECTION ON SOUTH WINDS...NOTED BY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER IOWA. NOTE THAT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S
EXIST...BUT THIS IS MOSTLY UNDER THE PRECIPITATION. SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS POSITIONED FROM NEAR DULUTH MN...TO ALBERT LEA MN AND
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST KS. PLENTY OF WARM AIR REMAINS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS WERE AROUND 20C.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...850MB TEMPS DROP OFF TO 13C AT ABR...8C AT
BIS AND 2C AT GGW. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AS WELL DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR...NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AS WELL WITH A DRY SLOT IN PLACE.
TODAY...
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO SLIDE EAST...GIVING THE COLD FRONT A
PUSH EASTWARD. ONGOING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN
NATURE AS THEY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...DUE TO
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE QUESTIONS THEN FOR THE
AFTERNOON ARE:
1. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT - PLUME OF LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT UNDER THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO STILL EXIST RIGHT INTO THE AFTERNOON. ENVISION THAT PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP IN THIS AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...ENOUGH
THAT MIXING TO THE 850MB TEMPS OF 14-16C PROGGED AT 18Z WOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS RESULTS IN MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT WITH MLCIN DOWN NEAR 0 J/KG.
2. DOES CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCUR - 0-2KM CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT
IS PRESENT...WEAK...BUT LIKELY ENOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF MLCIN TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. IN FACT...IT IS HARD TO FIND A MODEL THAT DOES
NOT INITIATE ON THE FRONT.
3. WHERE IS THE FRONT AT INITIATION - THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 28.00Z NAM DOES NOT INITIATE UNTIL
THE FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA (APPROX 21Z)...THOUGH AT 18Z THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 28.00Z ECMWF/GEM REGIONAL AND HIRES-ARW
MODELS ARE SIMILAR TO THE NAM. THE 28.00Z GFS AND SPC WRF-NMM
MODELS INITIATE IN THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT A
50 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST END...TAPERING TO 20 PERCENT
NEAR LA CROSSE.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...0-6KM SHEAR IS 40-50 KT ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...PLENTY FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
MLCIN LENDS CONVECTION TO LIKELY FORM A SQUALL LINE...BUT INITIAL
CELLS COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND 5-10 KTS OF 0-1KM
SHEAR WOULD TEND TO RULE OUT TORNADO THREAT. DRY SLOT COMING IN OVER
THE FRONT WILL HELP TO INCREASE DCAPE UP TO 1000-1200 J/KG OR
SO...THEREFORE...DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND DAMAGE. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME HAIL TOO GIVEN LOWERING WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM
THE DRY AIR.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BREEZY WEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE STILL WARM WEST OF THE FRONT AS THE
850MB TEMP FALL DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
MODELS TAKE THE UPPER LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS LIFTING
AWAY FROM THE AREA...500MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER THE AREA...
USHERING IN THE BEGINNING OF A COOL PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A
SHORTWAVE INDICATED TO COME ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. GETTING BACK TO TONIGHT...SOMETHING INTERESTING IN MODELS
IS A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT 00Z.
IT APPEARS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE UNDER THIS
SHORTWAVE. AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTHEAST...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD IMPACT TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES IN THE EVENING...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE 28.00Z SPC WRF-NMM...NAM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS.
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT MIXING AND A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE FOR BOTH
LOWS AND HIGHS. TEMPS COULD FALL LATE TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS
DRIVE COOLER 850MB AIR INTO THE AREA (TEMPS DOWN TO 4-6C AT 00Z)
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH ALLOWS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS TO BE EXPECTED...THE
850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...DROPPING TO 2-4C BY 18Z WEDNESDAY
OR 1.5-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS COOLER AIR SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY DROP INTO THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
UPPER 30S AT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MIXING AT MOST
WOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ON WEDNESDAY. NOTE...
THIS IS STILL FAR FROM THE RECORD COLD HIGH OF 49 AT LA CROSSE SET
IN 1897. DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
CLOUDS DO LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE...DOWNSTREAM OF
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AREA OF SOUTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY. A LARGE EXPANSE OF
SHOWERS COULD BE GOING ON OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO NEBRASKA TOO AHEAD
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ALL DEPENDS IF THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST
TOWARDS MINNESOTA LIKE THE 28.00Z NAM/ECMWF. SHOULD THE 28.00Z
GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN VERIFY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO DIG
MORE SOUTH...WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE DRY. FOR NOW...STUCK WITH A
BLEND APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES SOUTH AND
WEST OF I-94. NEITHER SITUATION OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACK PRODUCES
ANY CAPE...AND IF ANYTHING THE SCENARIO LOOKS MORE WINTER-LIKE.
THEREFORE...PULLED THUNDER MENTION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS
COOL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
304 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
OVERALL...THE 28.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE MEAN. THE MODELS ALL
SUGGEST UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...
THEN SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH CONNECT BACK TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT POTENT
SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS DROPPING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY...IF
IT CONTINUES TO DIG LIKE THE 28.00Z GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN SHOW...WE
COULD END UP WITH A REALLY CHILLY PERIOD. THESE MODELS ALL WRAP UP
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN IS THE COLDEST OF THEM ALL...WITH A RAINY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S. THIS IS THE OUTLIER...BUT DEFINITELY
GOES TO SHOW WHAT COULD HAPPEN WITH THAT POTENT SHORTWAVE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE
IDEA...WHICH OUTSIDE OF A COOL AND POSSIBLY WET THURSDAY...ALLOWS
FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AND CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT. SINCE THE
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT WITH BOTH IDEAS PLAUSIBLE...HAVE WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. LOOKS
LIKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE. COULD SEE SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS TOO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...LIKELY PASSING
KRST BETWEEN 12-15Z AND KLSE 14-17Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO
FIRE IN AN AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/LOW LEVEL
JET/INSTABILITY FROM NORTHEAST MN INTO NORTHWEST IA...AND SHOULD
APPROACH KRST NEAR 09Z. MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INSTABILITY WILL
HAVE WEAKENED BY THEN...AND SO WILL THE SEVERE/STRONG POTENTIAL OF
THE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT GETS TO
KLSE...BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SHRA AROUND 12Z OR SO.
CHECK OF RADAR DOES INDICATE A LINE OF SHRA/TS COULD MOVE ACROSS
KRST BEFORE THE BULK OF THE ANTICIPATED PCPN APPROACHES TOWARD 09Z.
WILL MAKE AN AMD TO ONGOING TAF.
THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT WILL GET BY THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING INSTABILTY WILL HELP FIRE MORE SHRA/TS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME
STRONG/SEVERE. CONTRASTING VIEW POINTS IN THE MODELS...WITH THE
GFS/ARW/SPCWRF SUGGESTING INITIATION COULD BE ON TOP OF KLSE...WHILE
THE NAM/GEM/ARXGFS ARE EAST OF KLSE. NOT MUCH CLARITY WITH THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE EVENING. ALL MODELS
AGREE THAT KRST SHOULD STAY DRY. WILL KEEP LATE AFTERNOON VCTS
POSSIBILITY AT KLSE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
459 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AT THE UPPER END OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN...
IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA AND ALONG THE MINNESOTA
RIVER WHICH DRAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI...WILL RESULT IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER RISING IN OUR FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY...ONLY
WABASHA IS FORECAST TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE DURING THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...MANY OTHER LOCATIONS UP AND DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
COULD APPROACH FLOOD STAGE. SEE THE LATEST ESF AND RVS STATEMENTS
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FORECASTS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT
WABASHA WILL EXCEED FLOOD STAGE...FLOOD WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS
MAY BE ISSUED. LOOKING AHEAD AT PRECIPITATION FOR THIS
WEEK...FOR THE MOST PART ONLY A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED...LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE MISSISSIPPI.
HOWEVER...THE 28.00Z CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COME THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RIGHT
NOW THIS MODEL IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
304 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
444 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
UPDATED TO ADD SHORT TERM/MARINE /AVIATION
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ACCAS SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN IOWA/FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS IN
REGION OF 850 MB CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KS ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING NORTHEAST.
SOME CAPE BETWEEN 600MB AND 400 MB ON LATEST RAP SOUNDING FOR
DBQ...BUT AREA RADARS HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING ANY RETURNS BELOW
10K FT SUPPORTING DRY LAYER BELOW 600 MB ON RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST FIRST THING THIS
MORNING...BUT EASTWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION AND LATEST HRRR IS PICKING THIS
UP...SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR AN EARLY UPDATE.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE...LATER TODAY AS BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA TRIES TO CONSOLIDATE AS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
925 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MID-UPPER 80S IN THE EAST...WITH LOW 80S
WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH MID CLOUDS WITH 850 MOISTURE
ADVECTION COULD TEMPER HIGHS IF THEY THICKEN MORE THAN EXPECTED.
OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK...HOWEVER SURFACE-BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
1000-1200 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEST...AND LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK/80-85KT/UPPER JET MAX DEVELOPS LATE MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH 06Z....OVERLAYING THE
850 MB CONVERGENCE. MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR
AS MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE...AND WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS LOWERING TO AROUND 10K FT...SO ANY SEVERE WILL BE
MAINLY A WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH LITTLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING...STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS IN 0-1KM LAYER. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE SO WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF SEVERE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW. ENOUGH PRECIPITATION THOUGH TO KEEP
LIKELY POPS. WILL TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CWA WITH
SURFACE TO 850 MB CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
KEPT CHANCE POPS UNTIL 06Z AS SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT DOES NOT CLEAR SE
CWA UNTIL 06Z...WITH ENHANCED SFC TO 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB COLD AIR. LOWS IN THE 50S BY MORNING EXCEPT
FOR LOW 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
BREEZY WEST WINDS EXPECTED ON TUE WITH LINGERING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND WEAKENS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT ALL BUT FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA /CWA/ IN
THE AFTERNOON. COOLER MAX TEMPS AROUND 70 TO 72 IN NORTHWEST
CWA...BUT 925MB TEMPS AND FEWER CLOUDS SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 IN FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.
THE GFS SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT QPF BOTH TUE AND WED...BUT PREFER DRIER
MAJORITY OF MODELS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHERN
CWA...BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE.
850MB TEMPS DROP TO 0C IN THE MIDDLE OF WI TUE NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE COULD LEAD TO A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE
VICINITY. IF WE CLEAR OUT...TEMPS COULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S. FOR NOW...TOOK CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
40S.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND OUT OF THE NORTH ON WED...WITH COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...UPPER 50S NEAR THE LAKE AND A LAKE
BREEZE.
LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
UPPER LEVELS PROGRESSIVE.
THE INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN WI LATER
WED NIGHT OR THU...WITH THE ECMWF THE QUICKEST. OFF AND ON LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI /ECMWF/...OR EVEN SUNDAY
IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS...WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TOOK COMPROMISE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH LEADS TO SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DO NOT SEE ANY
OPPORTUNITY TO GO WITH A DRY PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WI FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPS
BACK INTO THE 80S.
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
35 TO 40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS KEEPS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN TAFS
UNTIL MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING BRINGS SURFACE WINDS UP AROUND
15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EXPECT ONLY BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS...BUT THEY WILL
BE ISOLATED. THUNDERSTORMS END AT KMKE/KENW BY 06Z...WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND VFR VSBYS FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD.
.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY BY MID-MORNING WITH MIXING UP TO
25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AROUND 1000 FT. DEEPER MIXING DURING THE DAY
ASSURES FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
WINDS BEGIN TO SUSIDE WITH SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP CURRENT TIMING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH WEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
304 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
304 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON CONVECTION CHANCES TODAY AND ANY
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA INSIDE UPPER TROUGHING
COVERING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHILE RIDGING WAS
PRESENT IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND A STREAM OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT HELPED DEVELOP A
LARGE EXPANSE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LAST EVENING. A LOT OF THIS
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY LOSS IS A COMBINATION OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND DRY ADVECTION ON SOUTH WINDS...NOTED BY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER IOWA. NOTE THAT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S
EXIST...BUT THIS IS MOSTLY UNDER THE PRECIPITATION. SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS POSITIONED FROM NEAR DULUTH MN...TO ALBERT LEA MN AND
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST KS. PLENTY OF WARM AIR REMAINS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS WERE AROUND 20C.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...850MB TEMPS DROP OFF TO 13C AT ABR...8C AT
BIS AND 2C AT GGW. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AS WELL DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR...NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AS WELL WITH A DRY SLOT IN PLACE.
TODAY...
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO SLIDE EAST...GIVING THE COLD FRONT A
PUSH EASTWARD. ONGOING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN
NATURE AS THEY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...DUE TO
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE QUESTIONS THEN FOR THE
AFTERNOON ARE:
1. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT - PLUME OF LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT UNDER THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO STILL EXIST RIGHT INTO THE AFTERNOON. ENVISION THAT PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP IN THIS AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...ENOUGH
THAT MIXING TO THE 850MB TEMPS OF 14-16C PROGGED AT 18Z WOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS RESULTS IN MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT WITH MLCIN DOWN NEAR 0 J/KG.
2. DOES CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCUR - 0-2KM CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT
IS PRESENT...WEAK...BUT LIKELY ENOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF MLCIN TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. IN FACT...IT IS HARD TO FIND A MODEL THAT DOES
NOT INITIATE ON THE FRONT.
3. WHERE IS THE FRONT AT INITIATION - THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 28.00Z NAM DOES NOT INITIATE UNTIL
THE FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA (APPROX 21Z)...THOUGH AT 18Z THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INITIATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 28.00Z ECMWF/GEM REGIONAL AND HIRES-ARW
MODELS ARE SIMILAR TO THE NAM. THE 28.00Z GFS AND SPC WRF-NMM
MODELS INITIATE IN THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT A
50 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST END...TAPERING TO 20 PERCENT
NEAR LA CROSSE.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...0-6KM SHEAR IS 40-50 KT ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...PLENTY FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
MLCIN LENDS CONVECTION TO LIKELY FORM A SQUALL LINE...BUT INITIAL
CELLS COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND 5-10 KTS OF 0-1KM
SHEAR WOULD TEND TO RULE OUT TORNADO THREAT. DRY SLOT COMING IN OVER
THE FRONT WILL HELP TO INCREASE DCAPE UP TO 1000-1200 J/KG OR
SO...THEREFORE...DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND DAMAGE. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME HAIL TOO GIVEN LOWERING WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM
THE DRY AIR.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BREEZY WEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE STILL WARM WEST OF THE FRONT AS THE
850MB TEMP FALL DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
MODELS TAKE THE UPPER LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS LIFTING
AWAY FROM THE AREA...500MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER THE AREA...
USHERING IN THE BEGINNING OF A COOL PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A
SHORTWAVE INDICATED TO COME ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-94. GETTING BACK TO TONIGHT...SOMETHING INTERESTING IN MODELS
IS A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT 00Z.
IT APPEARS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE UNDER THIS
SHORTWAVE. AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTHEAST...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD IMPACT TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES IN THE EVENING...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE 28.00Z SPC WRF-NMM...NAM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS.
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT MIXING AND A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE FOR BOTH
LOWS AND HIGHS. TEMPS COULD FALL LATE TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS
DRIVE COOLER 850MB AIR INTO THE AREA (TEMPS DOWN TO 4-6C AT 00Z)
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH ALLOWS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS TO BE EXPECTED...THE
850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...DROPPING TO 2-4C BY 18Z WEDNESDAY
OR 1.5-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS COOLER AIR SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY DROP INTO THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
UPPER 30S AT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MIXING AT MOST
WOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ON WEDNESDAY. NOTE...
THIS IS STILL FAR FROM THE RECORD COLD HIGH OF 49 AT LA CROSSE SET
IN 1897. DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
CLOUDS DO LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE...DOWNSTREAM OF
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AREA OF SOUTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY. A LARGE EXPANSE OF
SHOWERS COULD BE GOING ON OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO NEBRASKA TOO AHEAD
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ALL DEPENDS IF THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST
TOWARDS MINNESOTA LIKE THE 28.00Z NAM/ECMWF. SHOULD THE 28.00Z
GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN VERIFY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO DIG
MORE SOUTH...WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE DRY. FOR NOW...STUCK WITH A
BLEND APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES SOUTH AND
WEST OF I-94. NEITHER SITUATION OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACK PRODUCES
ANY CAPE...AND IF ANYTHING THE SCENARIO LOOKS MORE WINTER-LIKE.
THEREFORE...PULLED THUNDER MENTION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS
COOL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
304 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
OVERALL...THE 28.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE MEAN. THE MODELS ALL
SUGGEST UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...
THEN SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH CONNECT BACK TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT POTENT
SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS DROPPING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY...IF
IT CONTINUES TO DIG LIKE THE 28.00Z GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN SHOW...WE
COULD END UP WITH A REALLY CHILLY PERIOD. THESE MODELS ALL WRAP UP
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN IS THE COLDEST OF THEM ALL...WITH A RAINY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S. THIS IS THE OUTLIER...BUT DEFINITELY
GOES TO SHOW WHAT COULD HAPPEN WITH THAT POTENT SHORTWAVE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE
IDEA...WHICH OUTSIDE OF A COOL AND POSSIBLY WET THURSDAY...ALLOWS
FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AND CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT. SINCE THE
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT WITH BOTH IDEAS PLAUSIBLE...HAVE WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. LOOKS
LIKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE. COULD SEE SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS TOO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...LIKELY PASSING
KRST BETWEEN 12-15Z AND KLSE 14-17Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO
FIRE IN AN AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/LOW LEVEL
JET/INSTABILITY FROM NORTHEAST MN INTO NORTHWEST IA...AND SHOULD
APPROACH KRST NEAR 09Z. MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INSTABILITY WILL
HAVE WEAKENED BY THEN...AND SO WILL THE SEVERE/STRONG POTENTIAL OF
THE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT GETS TO
KLSE...BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SHRA AROUND 12Z OR SO.
CHECK OF RADAR DOES INDICATE A LINE OF SHRA/TS COULD MOVE ACROSS
KRST BEFORE THE BULK OF THE ANTICIPATED PCPN APPROACHES TOWARD 09Z.
WILL MAKE AN AMD TO ONGOING TAF.
THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT WILL GET BY THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING INSTABILTY WILL HELP FIRE MORE SHRA/TS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME
STRONG/SEVERE. CONTRASTING VIEW POINTS IN THE MODELS...WITH THE
GFS/ARW/SPCWRF SUGGESTING INITIATION COULD BE ON TOP OF KLSE...WHILE
THE NAM/GEM/ARXGFS ARE EAST OF KLSE. NOT MUCH CLARITY WITH THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE EVENING. ALL MODELS
AGREE THAT KRST SHOULD STAY DRY. WILL KEEP LATE AFTERNOON VCTS
POSSIBILITY AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
304 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
505 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 5 AM EDT...JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE
OCCURRING...MAINLY ACROSS THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
GREENS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ID HUDSON VALLEY. WILL
RETAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SE AREAS THROUGH AROUND 12Z TO
ACCCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG MAY STILL FORM IN SOME
AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE THICK BLANKET OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
HAS PREVENTED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM FORMING...DESPITE AN
EXTREMELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS.
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RAP INDICATE A SMALL SURGE
OF SFC-850 THETA E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MAINLY AFTER
3 PM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE WOULD BE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY ASSUMING ENOUGH HEATING/SUNSHINE OCCURS
PRIOR TO THIS TIME...WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
500-800 J/KG CAPE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS CAP WEAKENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 30-40 KT.
THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL INCREASES TO AROUND 25000 FT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND A FEW LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. SOME OF THE TALLER CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD
HAVE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT NOTHING IN
COMPARISON TO THE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY.
HAVE GENERALLY SIDED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS...GIVEN
SUCH A WARM START...WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID
80S WITHIN VALLEY REGIONS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW TSTMS MAY
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING FROM ALBANY S AND E...BEFORE DISSIPATING
AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEY REGIONS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
THU-THU NT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH NORTHERN AREAS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF PASSING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
HAVE SIDED CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR TEMPS...BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE...WITH FORECAST MAXES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR THU
NT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO START...FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE...ESP ACROSS S/W AREAS. IT SHOULD BE RATHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FRI-FRI NT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SITUATION...WITH A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...AND A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST...WITH THE
00Z/30 NAM AND ECMWF BRINGING PRECIP FASTER INTO THE REGION FOR FRI
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS/GEM HOLD IT OFF LONGER...UNTIL FRI EVE.
THE NAM SEEMS MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN OR
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AS EARLY AS
FRI AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. AT THIS TIME...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON
THIS...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT SOME RAIN COULD BREAK OUT IN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH CHC POPS AFTER A DRY FRI
MORNING. THEN...LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS FOR FRI NT AS A SOAKING RAIN
OCCURS. FOR TEMPS...SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR
FRI...ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE OCCURS IN THE MORNING...AND RAIN
HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...SHOULD MODERATE RAIN DEVELOP AS
QUICKLY AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...MUCH COOLER MAXES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOR FRI NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/HPC GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED WHICH POINTS
TOWARD A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THIS FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE.
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS POISED TO BE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING TAKING ITS ASSOCIATED RAINFALL/SHOWERS INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND FURTHER EASTWARD. IN ITS WAKE...A COOL AND MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW EVOLVES AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER LOWER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVENCE THIS
WEEKEND. WHILE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES REMAINS IN
QUESTION...IT APPEARS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE THE RESULT.
THERE ARE ADDITIONAL TRENDS SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING OF
THIS UPPER LOW REFORMING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WOULD KEEP THE
COOL AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW /ALONG WITH ATLANTIC MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT/ INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHOWER POTENTIAL ALONG WITH WET GROUND AND
PARTIAL CLEARING...MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT
KGFL/KPSF. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WE WILL
PLACE A VCSH.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED NT...IMPROVING TO VFR. SLIGHT CHC SHRA/TSRA EARLY.
THU-FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NT...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRAS WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
SAT-SUN...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING ISOLATATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF ALBANY.
FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
DEW FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH WILL THEN FALL INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 5 MPH
TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY LED TO SOME RIVER
RISES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN VT...WHERE RISES OF
2-3 FT OCCURRED. THESE RIVER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY STARTED DROPPING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH POINT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY REMAINING
UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD CAUSE MINIMAL RIVER
RESPONSES.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1 INCH POSSIBLE. THIS MAY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/IAA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EASE OFF THE COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT AND REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS SATURDAY WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHWEST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHING LATER TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR TODAY INCLUDE CLOUD COVER...EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING) AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON?)...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION
NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING (APPROACHING THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS) IS BEING DRIVEN BY A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. THE AIRMASS IS STILL MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SO THERE
COULD EVEN BE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLY. THE LATEST HRRR RUN
SHOWS THIS AREA SLOWLY DECREASING IN SIZE AT IT HEADS FRO NORTHEAST
NEW JERSEY BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND WILL BE
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST.
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE AND MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE
DEEP SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
SINCE THE AIRMASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE..AND ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST
PAST DAYBREAK. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH LIGHTNING WITH THIS BATCH OF
SHOWERS...AND THE 0000 UTC RNK SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOWERS
ARE MORE OF A BYPRODUCT OF WARM CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE 1200 UTC.
THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST MAY TAKE QUITE A BIT LONGER. THE
SHOWERS LIE IN A BELT OF STILL MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT (WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY). THIS BELT OF MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE WARM PROCESS CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE.
THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS IN SOME DOUBT...BUT FOR NOW
THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. WITH THAT...THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
PLACES THERE. SINCE THE AIRMASS IS MOISTURE LADEN AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH AN
AREA THAT CAN ABSORB THE RAIN (MAINLY SANDY SOIL)...SO NO HYDROLOGY
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDINESS WILL CUT
DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THIS MORNING...KEEPING TEMPERATURES 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. THE NAM MOS MAY BE A BIT ON THE
HIGH SIDE...SO FOR NOW HIGHS WERE BASED ON THE MOS BLEND.
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
HAVE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
DROP OFF AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP BACK CLOSER TO AN INCH.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY SHOW MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES NEAR 250 J/KG...SO
THERE IS SOME LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THE MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW A LONG THIN CAPE PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF
SHORT LIVED UPDRAFTS. ANY STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
(DUE TO DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS) AND PERHAPS MALL HAIL (WHICH CAPE
IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION)...BUT THE POTENTIAL DOES NOT MERIT A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION COULD SURVIVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS
THE LAST OF THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WANES. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. OTHERWISE...
THE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM
THE WEST.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A SLOW AIRMASS CHANGE. THE LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
PROTECTED LOCATIONS. FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE AIRMASS CHANGE
ONLY PARTIALLY COMPLETE...LOWS WERE BASED ON THE WARMER NAM MOS
NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS COMPRISED OF A TROUGH THAT AMPLIFIES
FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
ENERGY MAY HANG BACK THOUGH FOR AWHILE AS IT CLOSES OFF INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS MAIN TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
OUR EAST AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE THOUGH ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL OR ITS REMNANTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY THEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST
BREEZE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WITH ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST IS THEN FORECAST TO
SLIDE EASTWARD. THIS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING WAA ON
THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE
SOME ALONG WITH A MOISTURE RETURN. AS A RESULT, SOME HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THESE
CLOUDS THICKENING UP DURING FRIDAY. GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, ENOUGH ASCENT SHOULD START TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDER
BY LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE /PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ ALONG WITH
STRONGER ASCENT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT, THEREFORE A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES THROUGH. THIS IS WITHIN A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED,
WE HELD OFF ON A MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE INSTABILITY. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR, THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM MAY BE MOVING ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
CONCERNS. WE PEAKED THE POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, IT APPEARS THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING SATURDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. WE LOWERED THE POPS THROUGH THE DAY, AND
THESE MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED EVEN FASTER AS THE SYSTEM COULD BE
FAST ENOUGH TO SWEEP THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO SWING ACROSS
ON SUNDAY AND AN IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. THIS MAY ALSO BE MARKED BY A
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. AS OF NOW, THE COVERAGE LOOKS SMALL THEREFORE
WE KEPT THE POPS ON THE RATHER LOW SIDE. THE FLOW THEN TENDS TO TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOW PRESSURE IS TO OUR NORTHEAST.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS THE
MAIN TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD. HOWEVER, SOME
GUIDANCE TENDS TO CLOSE THIS FEATURE OFF AND THIS ALLOWS IT TO SIT
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A
TROUGH BECOMING ENHANCED IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BEING PUSHED WESTWARD SOME. IF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INITIALLY TOPS THE RIDGE OR COMES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY. OUR CONFIDENCE THOUGH LOWERS HERE DUE TO MORE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE DETAILS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THEN LATER TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THIS TIME MAY BE IMPACTED BY WHATEVER THE TROUGH OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ENDS UP DOING. FOR NOW, WE WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY USED A MOS BLEND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND MOSGUIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
ABOUT 0900 UTC. AFTER THAT...THE MOIST LOW LEVEL COULD PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR VISIBILITY IN FOG (BUT CEILINGS MAY ALSO BE
MVFR FOR A TIME AT KACY).
FURTHER WEST...A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT
KRDG AND KABE THROUGH ABOUT 0900 UTC. RIGHT NOW...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR IN THE SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN THESE
AREAS. AFTER 0900 UTC...AFTER THE SHOWERS HAVE EXITED...KRDG AND
KABE SHOULD DROP TO MVFR AND STAY THERE THROUGH 1300 UTC.
AFTER 1300 UTC...ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS JUMP TO VFR. THE
WIND WILL BACK TO SOUTH AND REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS INTO MID
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT
KRDG AND KABE AFTER 2000 UTC...THROUGH ABOUT 0000 UTC. THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST YET.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW PLACES...SUCH AS KRDG AND
KMIV...COULD SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 0600 UTC THURSDAY...AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE. SUB-VFR ARRIVING AT NIGHT WITH SHOWERS MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO START WITH SHOWERS, THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH PERHAPS
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
SUNDAY...VFR WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE SETUP SHOULD ENSURE THAT WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL THIS MORNING...A
RESULT IN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE...AS THE SWELL SORTS ITSELF OUT.
THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING JUST HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE
BERYL OR HERE EXTRATROPICAL PERSONA WILL HAVE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. THE GFS IS CLOSEST (AND HAS BEEN FOR A FEW MODEL RUNS
NOW) WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GRADIENT. THIS IS IMPORTANT
BECAUSE THIS SOLUTION WOULD BEND WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO ADD MUCH
MORE TO THE WIND SPEED THAN OTHER MODELS...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
WATERS AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY COULD SEE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN
0600 UTC AND 1200 UTC THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
SEAS COULD BE ANOTHER MATTER. THE WNAWAVE (DRIVEN BY GFS WINDS)
SUGGEST THAT AS THE PERIOD GETS LONGER LATE TONIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS
COULD APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS FAIRLY LOW...SO SEAS WILL BE LEFT BELOW 5 FEET FOR
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVERALL THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL OR ITS
REMNANTS TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST MAY ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE
IN THE SEAS FOR A TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND OCCURRING. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME. THE
WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG, THEN
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE AT OR
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/HAYES
MARINE...GORSE/HAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
155 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS HAVING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
MID MORNING WILL TRANSITION AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AROUND
18Z...WITH THE SEA BREEZE SSE AROUND 10 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR TERMINAL
KOPF WHICH COULD REMAIN SSW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF ALL THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH VCTS
ASSIGNED AT 18Z.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
AFTER 15Z...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
HIGH RES MODELS SHOW AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AROUND
18Z...SO HAVE S TO SE WINDS AT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
EVENINGS...MOST OF THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST AND METRO
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 40-55 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES LINE UP
WELL WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS
BEFORE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS BERYL CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TO THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
REGION MAINTAINING A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE
LOWER-LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DAYTIME HEATING
AND SUFFICIENT SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WITH THE PRIMARY FLOW THROUGH
THE DEEP LAYER REMAINING OUT OF THE SW...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE LOCAL AREA EACH DAY.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ONE DIFFERENCE TO NOTE FOR THIS PERIOD
IS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SPREADING
NORTH ACROSS THE KEYS AND THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS INCREASE
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD THURSDAY. MODEL PWAT VALUES
REFLECT THIS PATTERN AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA OR FROM THE LAKE TO THE KEYS WITH THE
HIGHER PWAT VALUES REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THIS AREA (UP
TO 2.2 INCHES). AS A RESULT...WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE THE
RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THESE
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY-WEEKEND)...
MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INDICATE THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH
INTO THE LOCAL AREA WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST HPC 5 DAY PRECIP FORECAST INDICATES
TOTALS REACHING THE 2-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
PENINSULA. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY BECOMES CONCENTRATED.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL TRANSLATE TO CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST.
FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL RED FLAG LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 74 88 74 / 40 20 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 76 88 74 / 40 20 50 30
MIAMI 90 75 89 74 / 40 20 50 30
NAPLES 89 74 89 72 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
153 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
I HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS OVER NORTHWEST COUNTIES
AS LINE OF STORMS MOVE OUT OF TENNESSEE...AND LOWERED POPS
SOUTHEAST AS BERYL CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE NORTHEAST. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
49
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
.CONTINUED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN BANDS FROM REMNANTS OF BERYL...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL HAS NOW ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA
MOVING FROM TELFAIR COUNTY INTO WHEELER. EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM
HAS DEFINITELY BEEN THE WETTEST IN THE THIS STORMS HISTORY AND
TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT WITH FEEDER BANDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
PROVIDING THE MOST CONSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
LOCALLY ENHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL DUE TO ENHANCED CLOUD COVER. STILL THINKING THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE CONVECTIVE BANDS SET UP THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT
925MB...AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. HAVE JUST NOT HAD THE
INSTABILITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SHEAR PROFILE THUS FAR BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CELLS CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN CELLS
OR ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS.
SEPARATE ARE OVER MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING DISSIPATED FOR THE
MOST PART AS IT MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF ALABAMA. HRRR STILL KEYING
IN ON NW GEORGIA FOR POSSIBLE LATE TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE KEPT
LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF BERYL...SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR TO WORK ITS
WAY IN WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A PROFILE BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF CU
FORMATION IN THE AFTERNOON FROM ATL NORTHWARD. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW END SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEESE
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TD BERYL PULLS OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW KEEPS RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE STATE FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EAST OF THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH
2000-2500 CAPE...40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE
AND INCH OR LESS. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AN AREA OF -RA WITH CIGS IN THE BKN035-BKN060 RANGE HAS SETTLED IN
OVER THE ATLANTA TAF SITES...BEHIND A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT
MOVED ACROSS AROUND 05Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE -RA AND BKN CIGS TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/CLEAR THROUGH 08Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
IN THE 3SM-6SM BR RANGE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AROUND 09-11Z THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13-14Z. NW WINDS AROUND 6-8KTS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SWING BACK NNE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. MODELS
SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT FEW CU AROUND 5 THSD
FT POSSIBLE.
39
//ATL
CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 91 61 93 / 40 20 10 30
ATLANTA 68 90 66 90 / 20 20 10 30
BLAIRSVILLE 60 85 57 84 / 60 10 5 40
CARTERSVILLE 63 92 58 91 / 50 10 5 50
COLUMBUS 69 93 68 92 / 20 30 20 30
GAINESVILLE 65 91 64 90 / 30 20 5 40
MACON 67 92 62 94 / 40 30 20 30
ROME 66 93 58 91 / 60 10 5 50
PEACHTREE CITY 64 90 60 90 / 20 20 10 30
VIDALIA 70 90 69 94 / 60 30 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
302 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
900 PM CDT
GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES. THE 00Z
REGIONAL ROABS...PARTICULARLY AT DVN...INDICATED THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXED TO AROUND 750 MB TUESDAY UNDER A NOTABLE DRY INTRUSION ON
WATER VAPOR. THE MIXING OF THE SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS NOT STARTED
TO RECOVER THIS EVENING...IN FACT SEVERAL PLACES HAVE DROPPED A
FEW DEGREES IN THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW. THE HEART OF THE CLOSED CELL
CU ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES WAS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA STILL UNDER THE HEART OF THE COLDER AIR AND MID-LEVEL VORT
LOBES. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THEN AND INTO THE EARLY IR IMAGERY OF
TONIGHT DID/DO NOT INDICATE THIS READILY MAKING IT TOWARD THE
IL/WI STATE LINE. RAP FORECASTS OF 850-800 MB RH FOLLOW THIS
TREND. SO WHILE SOME CONTINUAL MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING FAST...THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST KEEP DROPPING AND MINS TO FALL OUT NEAR
THE GOING FORECAST OF AROUND 50 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES WITH MID
50S IN THE HEART OF CHICAGOLAND. THIS WILL BE THE THE COOLEST
NIGHT IN A WEEK.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT
VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE BACK END OF THE CIRRUS PUSHING EAST
FROM SOUTHEAST MI STRETCHING SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL. TO THE
WEST OF THIS AREA GOOD LLVL MIXING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTN AND
ALLOWED FOR ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE TO FURTHER DRY THE NEAR SFC
ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. THE COMBINATION OF
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS AT TIMES GUSTING IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...HAS
ALLOWED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES ARND 20 PERCENT. THIS IS MAINLY FALLING
BETWEEN THE I-88 AND I-80 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN IL. NORTH OF THIS
AND RH VALUES HOVER ARND 30 PERCENT...TO THE SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIGHTER.
AFTN TEMPS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH TEMPS UPSTREAM
ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHWEST WISC REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S. IN
ADDITION DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA.
EXPECT AS WE LOSE THE SUNLIGHT THE CU FIELD WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. THE COMBINATION OF MINIMAL CLOUDS...DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW/MID 40S...AND A 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF 6 TO 8 DEG C WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE TEMPS COULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
THE 500MB WAVE QUICKLY PIVOTS EAST FOR WED AS THE MID-LVL FLOW
BEGINS TO FLATTEN. GENERALLY THIS WOULD AID IN AN EFFICIENT
WEST-EAST FLOW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD
WED WILL SLOW AS DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY LONGER. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY WED...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES THUR.
MID-LVL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HOW WARM
THE SFC GETS. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF I-80. SOUTH
OF I-80 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 70...MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
THE FOCUS FOR WED NGT WILL BE ON THE DRY AIR THAT APPEARS TO REMAIN
OVERHEAD AND THE DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW. BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHARPEN ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY STRETCHING NORTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL IA. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR WED NGT WILL BE ON THE GRADUAL
SATURATION OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID-LVLS. AT
THIS TIME WED NGT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER SEVERAL
SREF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST PRECIP MAY
PENETRATE THE DRY LYR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK THUR. HAVE OPTED TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS SCENARIO AND BROUGHT IN LGT RAIN AFT
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED WILL HINGE UPON THE TIMING OF THE
RETURNING MOISTURE ALOFT AND HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN. AT THIS
TIME FEEL CONFIDENT TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO COOL INTO THE MID/UPR 40S.
GIVEN THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DEMONSTRATE SOME DEGREE OF
STRENGTHENING...THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION. IF
THE SYSTEM INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED THEN TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
COOL AS EFFICIENTLY AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A FEW PARAMETERS WITH THE CUTOFF LOW AND TIMING OF
PRECIP...HOWEVER NOISE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE REMAINS GIVEN THE
STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE LOW LEVELS.
FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWFA BY MIDDAY
THUR...AS THE CUTOFF SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. ANTI-CYCLONIC
FLOW NOW APPEARS TO BE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY THUR
AFTN/EVE...AS A STEADY MOIST CONVEYOR ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN. EXPECT WELCOME RAINFALL TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF FRI. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...IT SHOULD LINGER THRU FRI EVE BEFORE SLIDING EAST FOR
SAT.
WITH THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OR SYSTEM TO EJECT THE CUTOFF
LOW EAST...THE DRY AIR MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL SAT EVENING OR PERHAPS
SUN. IN ADDITION TO THE WELCOME RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE
THE MUCH COOLER AIR THAT WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS THE REGION. MINIMAL
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH A VERY POTENT 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH AS TEMPS COOL TO ARND 0 DEG C. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE
EVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS TO COOL TO -2 TO -4 DEG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WISC. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THUR HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
ABOVE THE 50S. LOCATIONS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN WISC/IA/MN
MAY SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE LOW 50S. SO A COOL...RAINY REGIME LOOKS
LIKELY AT THIS TIME FOR THUR/FRI.
THEN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO PEEL NORTHEAST FOR SAT AND
EVENTUALLY SUN...TEMPS STEADILY WARM. WEST COAST RIDGING FINALLY
ARRIVES SUN AND WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. IN
ADDITION THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES FOR SUN/MON.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TIMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..
* AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS THURSDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP SLIGHTLY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND HIGH BASED CU MAY DEVELOP LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA WITH WINDS QUICKLY FLOPPING FROM NNW OVER TO
NORTHEASTERLY.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. A MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND IS PROGGED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION REACHING THE CHICAGO/ROCKFORD TERMINALS
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY...WILL KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIP OUT OF CURRENT TAFS...BUT WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION REACHING TERMINALS BEFORE 12Z
THURSDAY.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...SHRA LIKELY...MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...MVFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA EARLY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE LIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES
THIS MORNING WITH LAKE MICHIGAN IN A MODEST NORTHERLY GRADIENT
TODAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THIS
EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY. MODERATELY STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT AROUND 30 KT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE. HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRONGEST WIND ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...WINDS SHOULD
BECOME WESTERLY AND GRADUALLY TAPER AS THE LOW DEPARTS. BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1224 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
900 PM CDT
GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES. THE 00Z
REGIONAL ROABS...PARTICULARLY AT DVN...INDICATED THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXED TO AROUND 750 MB TUESDAY UNDER A NOTABLE DRY INTRUSION ON
WATER VAPOR. THE MIXING OF THE SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS NOT STARTED
TO RECOVER THIS EVENING...IN FACT SEVERAL PLACES HAVE DROPPED A
FEW DEGREES IN THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW. THE HEART OF THE CLOSED CELL
CU ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES WAS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA STILL UNDER THE HEART OF THE COLDER AIR AND MID-LEVEL VORT
LOBES. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THEN AND INTO THE EARLY IR IMAGERY OF
TONIGHT DID/DO NOT INDICATE THIS READILY MAKING IT TOWARD THE
IL/WI STATE LINE. RAP FORECASTS OF 850-800 MB RH FOLLOW THIS
TREND. SO WHILE SOME CONTINUAL MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING FAST...THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST KEEP DROPPING AND MINS TO FALL OUT NEAR
THE GOING FORECAST OF AROUND 50 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES WITH MID
50S IN THE HEART OF CHICAGOLAND. THIS WILL BE THE THE COOLEST
NIGHT IN A WEEK.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT
VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE BACK END OF THE CIRRUS PUSHING EAST
FROM SOUTHEAST MI STRETCHING SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL. TO THE
WEST OF THIS AREA GOOD LLVL MIXING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTN AND
ALLOWED FOR ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE TO FURTHER DRY THE NEAR SFC
ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. THE COMBINATION OF
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS AT TIMES GUSTING IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...HAS
ALLOWED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES ARND 20 PERCENT. THIS IS MAINLY FALLING
BETWEEN THE I-88 AND I-80 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN IL. NORTH OF THIS
AND RH VALUES HOVER ARND 30 PERCENT...TO THE SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIGHTER.
AFTN TEMPS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH TEMPS UPSTREAM
ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHWEST WISC REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S. IN
ADDITION DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA.
EXPECT AS WE LOSE THE SUNLIGHT THE CU FIELD WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. THE COMBINATION OF MINIMAL CLOUDS...DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW/MID 40S...AND A 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF 6 TO 8 DEG C WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE TEMPS COULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
THE 500MB WAVE QUICKLY PIVOTS EAST FOR WED AS THE MID-LVL FLOW
BEGINS TO FLATTEN. GENERALLY THIS WOULD AID IN AN EFFICIENT
WEST-EAST FLOW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD
WED WILL SLOW AS DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY LONGER. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY WED...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES THUR.
MID-LVL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SHOULD LIMIT HOW WARM
THE SFC GETS. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF I-80. SOUTH
OF I-80 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 70...MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
THE FOCUS FOR WED NGT WILL BE ON THE DRY AIR THAT APPEARS TO REMAIN
OVERHEAD AND THE DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW. BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHARPEN ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY STRETCHING NORTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL IA. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR WED NGT WILL BE ON THE GRADUAL
SATURATION OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID-LVLS. AT
THIS TIME WED NGT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER SEVERAL
SREF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST PRECIP MAY
PENETRATE THE DRY LYR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK THUR. HAVE OPTED TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS SCENARIO AND BROUGHT IN LGT RAIN AFT
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED WILL HINGE UPON THE TIMING OF THE
RETURNING MOISTURE ALOFT AND HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN. AT THIS
TIME FEEL CONFIDENT TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO COOL INTO THE MID/UPR 40S.
GIVEN THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DEMONSTRATE SOME DEGREE OF
STRENGTHENING...THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION. IF
THE SYSTEM INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED THEN TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
COOL AS EFFICIENTLY AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A FEW PARAMETERS WITH THE CUTOFF LOW AND TIMING OF
PRECIP...HOWEVER NOISE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE REMAINS GIVEN THE
STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE LOW LEVELS.
FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWFA BY MIDDAY
THUR...AS THE CUTOFF SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. ANTI-CYCLONIC
FLOW NOW APPEARS TO BE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY THUR
AFTN/EVE...AS A STEADY MOIST CONVEYOR ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN. EXPECT WELCOME RAINFALL TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF FRI. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...IT SHOULD LINGER THRU FRI EVE BEFORE SLIDING EAST FOR
SAT.
WITH THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OR SYSTEM TO EJECT THE CUTOFF
LOW EAST...THE DRY AIR MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL SAT EVENING OR PERHAPS
SUN. IN ADDITION TO THE WELCOME RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE
THE MUCH COOLER AIR THAT WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS THE REGION. MINIMAL
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH A VERY POTENT 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH AS TEMPS COOL TO ARND 0 DEG C. A FEW SOLUTIONS HAVE
EVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS TO COOL TO -2 TO -4 DEG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WISC. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THUR HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
ABOVE THE 50S. LOCATIONS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN WISC/IA/MN
MAY SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE LOW 50S. SO A COOL...RAINY REGIME LOOKS
LIKELY AT THIS TIME FOR THUR/FRI.
THEN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO PEEL NORTHEAST FOR SAT AND
EVENTUALLY SUN...TEMPS STEADILY WARM. WEST COAST RIDGING FINALLY
ARRIVES SUN AND WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. IN
ADDITION THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES FOR SUN/MON.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TIMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..
* AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS THURSDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP SLIGHTLY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND HIGH BASED CU MAY DEVELOP LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN...A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA WITH WINDS QUICKLY FLOPPING FROM NNW OVER TO
NORTHEASTERLY.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. A MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND IS PROGGED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION REACHING THE CHICAGO/ROCKFORD TERMINALS
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY...WILL KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIP OUT OF CURRENT TAFS...BUT WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION REACHING TERMINALS BEFORE 12Z
THURSDAY.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...SHRA LIKELY...MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...MVFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA EARLY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO NORTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 20 KT
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WILL BE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW LATER ON
THURSDAY BEFORE SWITCHING MORE NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL
HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS LOW.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 25 TO AROUND
30 KT LATER THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
WHOLE LAKE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY.
THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY AND ABATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
340 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
FOR THE NEAR TERM, BASED ON THE THE NAM, RUC AND HRRR SHORTER TERM MODELS,
I LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY PRIOR TO 18Z TODAY, AND LOWERED QPF AS
WELL. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
AND LESS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP, AND THIS WAVE WILL COME
DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY. WITH THAT SAID, THERE
APPEARS ONLY TO BE SLIGHT OVER RUNNING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
JUST SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. SO CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THIS MORNING IN
THE STRATOCU LEVEL, BUT THE INSTABILITY DOES NOT SEEM STRONG
ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION. THE FRONT DOWN IN OKLAHOMA WILL NUDGE
NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE OVER RUNNING OF THE 850MB FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WILL COLLIDE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TRAVELING SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SET UP A 1500-1600
CAPE SITUATION ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA, AND THE SURFACE HEATING BY
THEN WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY 60
PERCENT POPS GOING AFTER 21Z IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES,
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LARNED TO MEADE. IN THE ZONE WORDING, I
WILL HAVE POSSIBLE SEVERE WORDING WITH THE MENTION OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. QPF IS TRICKY, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WOULD PLACE UP TO 1.22 PW IN THE GREENSBURG TO
MEDICINE LODGE AREAS. DO NOT EXPECT THAT AMOUNT IN A BASIN-WIDE
AVERAGE, SO WENT WITH 0.41 INCH INSTEAD. BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES
UP JUST A FEW DEGREES TODAY, THINKING THE DELAYED PRECIPITATION
WILL GIVE THE LIMITED SUN MORE TIME TO WARM THE SURFACE UP.
TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR GENERAL STORMS TO OCCUR IN THE
WRAP AROUND SECTION OF THE UPPER WAVE. DO NOT EXPECT TONIGHT`S
STORMS TO BE SEVERE, BUT MORE OF A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM NATURE.
ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHEN POPS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY, BUT RANGE TO THE UPPER 50S
DOWN IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH EARLY TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY
AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
BY FRIDAY, THE CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A VERY BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
ORIENTED UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ABOUT A 1015-1017 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL DROP FROM THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
REPRESENTS A SOMEWHAT COOL NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN FOR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS DOES PAINT LIGHT QPF WHICH REALLY JUST
REPRESENTS THE MODEL ATTEMPTING TO TURN OVER INSTABILITY, IN THE
WESTERN POSITIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS
MORE PROBABLE NO THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE SUBSIDENT THERMALLY INDIRECT CONVERGENT RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE INCOMING JET SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
RAPIDLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT A STOUT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. DURING THE
TIMEFRAME FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS PRODUCE A SWATH OF QPF SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DEFORMATION IN THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD AND SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, BY CONTRAST, THE NAM MODEL SEEMS TO INDICATE CONVECTION
DEVELOPED DIURNALLY ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS/ MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY LATE IN THE DAY. ISOLATED STORMS SEEM ALL THAT MIGHT
BE EXPECTED. WITH THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS, THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXPECTED MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR LATE FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING THICKNESSES. ECMWF/GFS ELUDE TO THE AREA FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA AS BEING POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE IN A ZONE OF HIGHER THETA-E. LESSER CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO ANY STORM CHANCES BEYOND THIS POINT. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
TAKE ON A FLAT RIDGE PATTERN INTO SUNDAY WITH A NOISY SIGNAL OF
EMBEDDED COMPACT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90S DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT STILL
INDICATE AROUND A 10 DEGREE SPREAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUN FROM 00Z SHOWS MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
IN BY 09-10Z OR SO AND PRODUCING MVFR CIGS IN THE BKN020-025 RANGE.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS. BY 15Z, A SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWESTERN COLORADO AND KICK OFF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST TIMING ESTIMATE FOR CONVECTION AT THE
TAFS WILL BE 15Z AT KHYS, 16Z AT KDDC, AND WILL ONLY GO VCTS AT
KGCK AS THE MOIST AXIS WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF KGCK. THIS WAVE
WILL BE FAST MOVING, AND THUNDERSTORM COULD BE EAST OF ALL
TERMINALS BY 19Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 54 72 45 / 50 40 0 0
GCK 80 52 72 45 / 40 40 0 0
EHA 84 54 76 48 / 40 40 0 0
LBL 83 53 75 47 / 40 40 0 0
HYS 76 52 69 44 / 40 30 0 10
P28 84 59 72 46 / 60 60 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
330 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY &
TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...AND A WARMING TREND
WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR TODAY-TONIGHT...AS THEY
HAVE GREATLY STRUGGLED WITH PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROGS THE PAST FEW DAYS. AM TENDING TO SIDE
WITH A 06Z NAM...RUC...HRRR AND NSSL WRF BLEND...WHICH HOLDS OFF
MOST PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS MAKES THE MOST SENSE GIVEN
BRUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SHUNTED SOUTH DUE TO WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SCOURING OUT AIRMASS OVER OK. HOWEVER...DID
HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
HIT-AND-MISS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG STALLED
850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW-SE ACROSS KS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THINKING STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...INTERACTING
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG NORTHERN FRINGE OF STOUT 700MB TEMPERATURES.
THINKING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN INCREASINGLY MODEST/STRONG INSTABILITY (POSSIBLY MAINLY
ELEVATED) AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...THINK THE "HIGHER
END" SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO TX/OK WHERE BEST SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DRYLINE
INTERSECTIONS. THEREFORE...WILL REMOVE "CATEGORY 4" FROM HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. AFTER THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT. THE SEVERITY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
TEMPERED THOUGH DUE TO PREVIOUS ACTIVITY ACTING TO STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THU-FRI IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...ALONG WITH STOUT NORTH WINDS THU. FOR FRIDAY...SUBTLE
MID/UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...AS 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH NOW HINTING AT THIS. ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE
WEATHER.
PER MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS...A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. ADDITIONALLY...HIT-AND-MISS CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND
GIVEN VARIOUS MODEL PROGS OF SUBTLE MID-UPPER ENERGY AND
MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW
REGARDING DETAILS OF TIMING/COVERAGE. ALL-IN-ALL IT APPEARS THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
KLEINSASSER
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN HAZARD: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF TS AT HUT...ICT...AND CNU FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CURRENT SCATTERED TS ACROSS AREA. ACTIVITY SEEMS
TO BE OCCURRING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEAR AND NORTH OF WARM
FRONT. HRRR HAS THIS CONVECTION PUSHING EAST OUT OF AREA AROUND
09-10Z. MODEL SIGNALS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING AN MCS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KS...THEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS INTO WED PM. THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK BEHIND THIS MCS.
THEN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE COLD FRONT AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 81 59 71 49 / 60 70 10 10
HUTCHINSON 79 56 70 48 / 60 70 10 10
NEWTON 78 56 69 48 / 60 70 10 10
ELDORADO 80 58 70 48 / 50 70 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 83 61 72 50 / 60 70 10 10
RUSSELL 76 52 69 47 / 60 70 10 10
GREAT BEND 77 53 70 47 / 60 70 10 10
SALINA 77 55 69 47 / 60 70 10 10
MCPHERSON 78 55 69 47 / 60 70 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 84 64 72 50 / 40 70 30 10
CHANUTE 81 61 70 48 / 40 70 30 10
IOLA 80 61 70 48 / 40 70 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 82 63 71 50 / 40 70 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1202 AM MDT WED MAY 30 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT TUE MAY 29 2012
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BTWN 06 AND 12Z AS 305K SFC INDICATES
MIXING RATIOS CLIMBING SHARPLY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY. NEWEST MODELS STILL SHOW A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
THAT LIMITS CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT...AND ADJUSTED POPS TO PEAK AROUND
15Z INSTEAD OF 12Z AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. VWP AT DDC INDICATING WINDS
SLOWLY STARTING TO VEER TO THE EAST AROUND 40 KTS...AND GIVEN SFC
TDS TO THE EAST THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE SUPPORT FOR STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
TODAY...BULK OF FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING AND THE RESULTING
IMPACTS ON BOTH TEMPS AND LATER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DIV Q
FIELDS SUGGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WELL AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WITH PERSISTENT LIFT IN AREA OF
FAIRLY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION...THINK KEEPING MORNING POPS AT
LEAST IN THE MID CHANCE RANGE WARRANTED. SEEING HRRR/RAP AND
LATEST HIGHRES NAM ARW SOLUTIONS KEEPS CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO GO
MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT. BY LATE AFTERNOON SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA...FORCING COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHWESTERN CWA. WITH MORNING PRECIPITATION THREAT ENDING EARLY
IN THE WEST...THINK SUFFICIENT HEATING DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT AS FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN WEAK CINH AND STRONG SFC FORCING ALONG
FRONT...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THIS
TIME AND HAVE TRENDED FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT TUE MAY 29 2012
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST NAM
AND RUC INDICATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING BTWN 9 AND 12Z
ALONG 305K SFC WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 12 G/KG REACHING AREA BY 12Z.
NAM/RUC/21Z SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING MUCAPES INCREASING
DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG NOTED
ON NAM AND SREF MEAN VALUES INCREASING 1500 J/KG. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THIS INSTABILITY BASED IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
CINH VALUES DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A LARGE AREA OF CWA
SEEING ELEVATED CINHS FALL BELOW 50 J/KG AFTER 09Z. MODELS DIFFER
GREATLY ON INITIATION POTENTIAL WITH THE LATEST NAM STARTING TO
INITIATE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ALTHOUGH OVERALL PATTERNS VERY
SIMILAR. THINK DECIDING FACTOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS. WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS ELEVATED
CINH VERY WEAK AT H8...BUT IF THINGS ADVECT IN SLOWER CINH WILL BE
MUCH STRONGER TONIGHT.
GIVEN OVERALL PATTERN AND AVAILABLE DATA...THINK INCREASING POPS
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WARRANTED DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
WITH ELEVATED CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG (POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG) THINK THERE IS A DECENT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL TONIGHT SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT TUE MAY 29 2012
THROUGH TONIGHT...PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE OVERNIGHT WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
ON THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KT H85 LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SOME QUESTION WITH REGARD TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENT DOES EXIST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE LOCATION OF THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL. THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION INITIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE KS/CO BORDER WHILE THE GFS/EC CONFINE THE THREAT TO
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
50KTS. ANTICIPATE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER
WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING A BIT LONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT TUE MAY 29 2012
500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN COOLER/DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GFS/NAM
INDICATE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THURSDAY SHOWS WIDE
VARIATION BETWEEN MODELS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE EASING...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOL AIR ALREADY IN PLACE TO KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL JET MAY DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...SO WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY.
A NUMBER OF WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MOST MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ONE OF THE WAVES...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN THE EXTENT OF THE
COVERAGE. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY BASED ON GFS LOCATION.
ZONAL FLOW OCCURS SUNDAY...AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...AND INDICATED SOME SMALL
CHANCE POPS AGAIN...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. MORE
VIGOROUS DYNAMICS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING
WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH.
NUMERICAL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT TUE MAY 29 2012
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED CIG/VISBY IMPACTS WILL BE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOKS
LIKE EACH SITE WILL HAVE TWO DISTINCT PERIODS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...THE FIRST WILL BE THIS MORNING IN AREA WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND THE SECOND BEING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS AREA.
LATEST DATA WOULD SUGGEST THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HAVE BEST
COVERAGE AND THUS HIGHER CHANCES OF IMPACTING TERMINALS. WITH
ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z...WILL
SEE A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WITH STRATUS DEVELOP MAINLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...FOLTZ
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN HAZARD: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF TS AT HUT...ICT...AND CNU FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CURRENT SCATTERED TS ACROSS AREA. ACTIVITY SEEMS
TO BE OCCURRING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEAR AND NORTH OF WARM
FRONT. HRRR HAS THIS CONVECTION PUSHING EAST OUT OF AREA AROUND
09-10Z. MODEL SIGNALS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING AN MCS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KS...THEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS INTO WED PM. THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK BEHIND THIS MCS.
THEN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE COLD FRONT AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
UPDATE...
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES. WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY ALONG/SOUTH OF IT AND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH...THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS IN OKLAHOMA. OTHER
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ERUPT OVER NORTHWESTERN KS TOWARD DAYBREAK
IN AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF A WEAKER LEAD WAVE
IN THE ROCKIES THAT PRECEDES THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. FEEL THIS INITIAL WEAKER WAVE WILL RESULT IN AN
MCS THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER MCS COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN HAZARD: STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION THIS EVENING ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 54 AFFECTING ICT AND CNU TAFS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST IN OKLAHOMA...A FEW STRONG STORMS
COULD DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVE AS WEAK
IMPULSE TRACKS EASTWARD OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY...AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WITH THIS FEATURE ANYTIME FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME
AND PROVIDE BETTER TIMING DETAILS IN LATER TAFS.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON WED. THEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR THU AND FRI.
TONIGHT:
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES JUST TO THE
SW OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NW OK BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE...WITH
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CU FIELD INCREASING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS BEEN SLOW
TO RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME...WITH WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SRN ROW OF COUNTIES IN SOUTH
CEN KS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP ANY EYE ON THIS SRN ROW OF COUNTIES...AS
THIS AREA IS BECOMING UNCAPPED...SO ANY INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE MAY
LEAD TO SUPERCELL STORMS DEVELOPING SW OF KICT. IF A STORM CAN
DEVELOP INTO SOUTH CEN KS...BULK SHEAR OF 50 KTS AND MLCAPE REACHING
1500-2000 J/KG...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO WITH A DOMINATE SUPERCELL...AS DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO CHANCE INITIALLY...BEFORE STORMS
EVOLVE INTO A PROGRESSIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO OK.
WED-WED NIGHT:
A MORE COMPLICATED SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WILL OCCUR ON WED...AS THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OVER CEN KS...
WITH WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING THIS BOUNDARY ONGOING EARLY ON WED.
THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON WED JUST TO THE NW OF CEN KS AS A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NW KS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT SEVERE
CHANCES FOR WED AFTN...AS THIS CONVECTION MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND BECOME MORE SFC BASED FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS THE CONVECTION RUNS INTO BETTER SFC BASED INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING MORE ROBUST BULK SHEAR VALUES ON WED AFTN...AS THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM/WRF SHOWING BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 60-65 KTS. THIS ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AGAIN SITUATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KHUT-KICT-KPPF LINE. WITH THIS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND INCREASING SHEAR...SPC MODERATE RISK LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR WED AFTN. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT MODERATE RISK MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST.
INITIAL SFC BASED CONVECTION ON WED AFTN CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE HP
SUPERCELLS GIVEN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES...BUT COULD
SEE THIS CONVECTION CONGEAL OR BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH COULD LEAD THIS CONVECTION BECOMING A
PROGRESSIVE DAMAGING WIND MCS ACROSS SRN KS BY LATE WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THU-SAT:
WILL SEE MOST OF THE WED NIGHT CONVECTION PUSH SOUTH INTO OK EARLY
ON THU. BUT MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER NEB IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ERN KS FOR THU AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD A FEW DIURNAL STORMS ACROSS ERN KS FOR
THU...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THIS AREA. THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THU WILL
BE COOLER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FOR THU AFTN/EVENING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO
FRI.
WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SAT...AS SFC FLOW QUICKLY COMES
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AS UPPER FLOW STAYS OUT OF THE NW.
THIS RETURN FLOW COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SOME WARM
ADVECTION/ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT. SO
WILL ADD A POP FOR THIS CHANCE.
REST OF THE EXTENDED:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO SFC TEMPS AGAIN CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR SUN
THRU TUE.
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FOR SUN THRU TUE...AS BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
KETCHAM
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 21Z. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE BUT DUE TO THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE WILL LIMIT KHUT AND
KICT OT VCTS BETWEEN 21Z-02Z. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IMPACTING KRSL POSSIBLE KHUT AND KICT
TOWARD MORNING ON WED WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MWM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 62 81 59 72 / 40 60 70 10
HUTCHINSON 59 79 56 71 / 20 60 60 10
NEWTON 58 79 55 70 / 20 50 70 10
ELDORADO 59 79 57 71 / 30 40 70 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 63 83 62 73 / 60 60 70 20
RUSSELL 56 76 53 68 / 20 60 60 10
GREAT BEND 56 77 55 70 / 20 60 60 10
SALINA 57 77 57 68 / 20 40 60 10
MCPHERSON 58 78 55 70 / 20 50 60 10
COFFEYVILLE 63 82 63 74 / 50 30 70 40
CHANUTE 60 79 62 72 / 30 20 70 50
IOLA 59 78 61 70 / 30 20 70 50
PARSONS-KPPF 62 81 63 73 / 50 30 70 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
602 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND COOLER MID-WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING TO DECREASE THE
MORNING SKY GRIDS AS SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST.
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A 300MB 100KT JET AXIS PUSHING
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. AT
THE SURFACE, A 1000MB LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND INTO OHIO.
THE FRONT IS MOST INDICATIVE BY ITS WIND SHIFT AND TD GRADIENT.
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE IN A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW TODAY
AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY AND DIURNAL MIXING
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS. HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN A MAV/MET BLEND, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN RIDGES TO THE LOWER 80S IN PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL WV AND EASTERN OHIO.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH A DRIER AIR MASS
SETTLED IN ACROSS THE REGION, 5-10 DEGREES TD DEPRESSIONS WILL
INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MAJORITY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER, CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. THE COOLER NAM IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN
OUTLIER FOR HIGH TEMPS, WITH GFS/ECMWF INDICATING 850 TEMPS AT
7-10C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS, IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
A CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED LOW
WILL PIVOT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT A SURFACE LOW
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. 700MB OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BRING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY AND INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH GFS/NAM INDICATING A WEDGE
OF MODERATE SBCAPE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY 18Z FRIDAY SUPPORT THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER. TOTAL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A HALF OF AN
INCH TO AN INCH FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN-COOLED AIR
AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS
THE AREA DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY IN
THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A ECMWF/GFSE BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LOOK FOR THE MERCURY TO STAY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON
SATURDAY AS H500 LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...A FULL LATITUDE TROF REMAINS FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE FORECAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY AND MODERATE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-SHRA HAVE NOW PROGRESSED TO THE SE OF ALL THE SITES TONIGHT. THE
REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AT ALL SITES. THERE IS LIKELY TO
BE A RACE BETWEEN CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THAT WILL PLAY OUT AT ALL SITES TO DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD FOG IS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF THE FOG SHOULD BE AT
THE EASTERN SITES FROM KDUJ SOUTH TO KMGW AND EASTWARD. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PATCHES OF LIFR FOG IN THAT AREA...HOWEVER PINPOINTING
WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS
DIFFICULT...THOUGH KDUJ SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY AT THE MOMENT.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY AT LEAST MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. FRIES
.OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER H500 LOW APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
SPREAD PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS ACROSS REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW EXITS AREA.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
453 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND COOLER MID-WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A 300MB 100KT JET AXIS PUSHING
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. AT
THE SURFACE, A 1000MB LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND INTO OHIO.
THE FRONT IS MOST INDICATIVE BY ITS WIND SHIFT AND TD GRADIENT.
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE IN A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW TODAY
AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY AND DIURNAL MIXING
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS. HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN A MAV/MET BLEND, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN RIDGES TO THE LOWER 80S IN PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL WV AND EASTERN OHIO.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH A DRIER AIR MASS
SETTLED IN ACROSS THE REGION, 5-10 DEGREES TD DEPRESSIONS WILL
INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MAJORITY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER, CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. THE COOLER NAM IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN
OUTLIER FOR HIGH TEMPS, WITH GFS/ECMWF INDICATING 850 TEMPS AT
7-10C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS, IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
A CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED LOW
WILL PIVOT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT A SURFACE LOW
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. 700MB OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BRING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY AND INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH GFS/NAM INDICATING A WEDGE
OF MODERATE SBCAPE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY 18Z FRIDAY SUPPORT THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER. TOTAL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A HALF OF AN
INCH TO AN INCH FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN-COOLED AIR
AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS
THE AREA DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY IN
THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A ECMWF/GFSE BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LOOK FOR THE MERCURY TO STAY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON
SATURDAY AS H500 LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...A FULL LATITUDE TROF REMAINS FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE FORECAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY AND MODERATE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-SHRA HAVE NOW PROGRESSED TO THE SE OF ALL THE SITES TONIGHT. THE
REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AT ALL SITES. THERE IS LIKELY TO
BE A RACE BETWEEN CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THAT WILL PLAY OUT AT ALL SITES TO DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD FOG IS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF THE FOG SHOULD BE AT
THE EASTERN SITES FROM KDUJ SOUTH TO KMGW AND EASTWARD. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PATCHES OF LIFR FOG IN THAT AREA...HOWEVER PINPOINTING
WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS
DIFFICULT...THOUGH KDUJ SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY AT THE MOMENT.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY AT LEAST MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. FRIES
.OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER H500 LOW APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
SPREAD PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS ACROSS REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW EXITS AREA.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. AS CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S OVER INLAND AREAS NORTH OF
M-20 AND FROST IS EXPECTED. CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WILL BE RAINY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION TRENDS THURSDAY.
* FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT NORTHEAST 6 COUNTIES.
IR LOOP SHOWS STRATOCU ADVECTING EWD FROM WISCONSIN ATTM. WEAK
SHORT WAVES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR TODAY TO CREATE A
BROKEN DECK OF STRATO CU FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CWA TOO. WE
SAW THIS OCCUR IN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY AND SO ADDED ISOLD SHRA TO
THE GRIDS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S NORTH
OF M-20 TONIGHT. ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST 6
COUNTIES FROM 06Z-12Z. IT/S NOT A SLAM DUNK THOUGH AS STRATOCU
COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THAT AREA AND WINDS MAY NOT BE CALM
SINCE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WON/T BE OVERHEAD.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS
MAKES A RUN AT THAT THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED
BY THE MODELS FOR A FEW DAYS AND SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT
WE/LL SEE SOME RAIN FROM IT. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. WE
INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEAST TO LAKE ERIE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD OVER LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE A DAMP AND COOL PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
UPPER TROUGHING ACTUALLY LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOWER MICHIGAN IS LOCATED IN AN AREA IN THE UPPER PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE WE WILL BE IN A TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO
RIDGING. NOT CONFIDENT EXACTLY WHERE WE WILL BE YET...BUT THE
EUROPEAN WOULD INDICATE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF TROUGHING. HAVE
SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME...SO FEEL THE SMALL POPS STILL LOOK OK. WITH TIME WE MAY
NEED TO NUDGE TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DOWN A TAD IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TOWARD UPPER TROUGHING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
A BKN VFR DECK WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THE CEILING WILL SCATTER BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 3 FOOT WAVES
TODAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. A HALF TO AN
INCH OF PCPN IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-96. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
MINOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ038>040-
044>046.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
150 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM NRN
ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. VORT MAX TRACKING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SCT -SHRA
ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTN. WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS (5700FT MSL ON
12Z KINL SOUNDING) MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY BEEN
PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL. SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL AROUND
WAKEFIELD EARLIER IN THE DAY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS VORT MAX SHIFTS E THIS EVENING AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST...THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN -SHRA WILL DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
ALONG WITH SFC TROF PASSING THRU THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
-RA/-SHRA THRU THE NIGHT GIVEN CURRENT UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS N AND
NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -3C MAY SEE
A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
ALSO...GIVEN THE SUBZERO C 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS
FALLING JUST UNDER 1305M...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE FROZEN PCPN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN (IT WAS
SNOWING AT CYPL THIS MORNING).
TEMPS WED WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. WITH THE 850MB
TROF OVER THE AREA...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THRU THE MORNING
HRS. ALSO...SOME LIGHT -RA/-SHRA WILL PROBABLY LINGER NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR IN THE MORNING. CLEARING WILL THEN BEGIN IN THE AFTN FROM
NW TO SE AS WAA STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE SUNNY BY LATE AFTN. TEMPS WILL
NOT GET OUT OF THE MID 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E OF KMQT UNDER CHILLY
AIR MASS AND GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. LOW/MID 50S WILL BE THE
RULE ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CWA ON WED NIGHT. NNE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH/DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH PWATS AROUND 40 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHER
RES MODELS TRYING TO KEEP LINGERING NW WINDS UP OVER THE ERN
CWA...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE COOLING IN THE MORE OPEN LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...WHERE LOWS WILL
BE 28-31...WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LKS SHORELINE. MORE THAN LIKELY WILL NEED FROST ADVISORY OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY A FREEZE WARNING OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. CURRENT FORECAST DOESN/T QUITE REACH A HARD FREEZE
CRITERIA...28 DEGREES FOR 3HRS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND DRIFTING SE ON THURS...EXPECT A
NICE DAY ACROSS UPPER MI WITH LK BREEZES AND DIURNAL CU THE MAIN
CONCERNS. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY LIMITED...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING
FROM LK BREEZES AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE
LK BREEZES. EXPECT LK BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG LK SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY AFTN...AND LEAD TO COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
GREAT LKS. BUT WITH THE SUN...SHOULD STILL SEE A QUICK WARM-UP FROM
THE FROSTY TEMPS TO START THE DAY. MIXING TO H800 WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS NOT INFLUENCED BY LK
BREEZES. FINALLY...COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BRUSHING THE WI BORDER
DURING THE AFTN AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE
UPPER/CNTRL MISS VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE NEXT CONCERN FOR
THE CWA HEADING INTO FRI.
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON THURS NIGHT WILL HELP
SHARPEN THE TROUGH AND PUSH THE LOW FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT
00Z FRI...NNE TO NEAR THE MACKINAC STRAITS AT 00Z SAT. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE LOW...WITH 12Z GFS
THE STRONGEST AND THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE FARTHER N 00Z ECMWF
AND THE WEAKER/SE TRACK OF THE 12Z NAM. PREFER A GENERAL
CONCENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS/GEM AND 00Z ECMWF...WHICH LOOKS MORE LIKE
SOMETHING THAT WOULD BE SEEN IN LATE WINTER OR EARLY SPRING. DUE
TO THE MORE ROBUST AND NORTHERN TRENDS IN THE MODELS OVER
THE LAST DAY...PREVIOUS SHIFT TRENDED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION ON
CLOUD/POPS. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE CWA ON FRI...AS THE BEST H850-700 WAA PUSHES NNE
THROUGH THE ERN CWA.
FOR THE EXTENDED /FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LKS AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
TROUGH...BUT ALL INDICATE THE TROUGH LIFTING NE ON FRI NIGHT AND
INTO SAT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM SW
TO NE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE INTO CANADA. THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL IDEA
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR 12-18HRS
BEHIND THE LOW BEFORE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA...LIKELY ON SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE NEXT WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ALOFT AND WARM
FRONT STRETCHING SE FROM LOW CENTERED IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
TEMPS TO TREND BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH THE MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IFR CIGS COULD
AFFECT KIWD/KSAW THROUGH THE NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT PERSISTENT IFR CIGS
ARE UNLIKELY THOUGH AS CONVERGENCE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AS
850MB THERMAL TROF SLIPS TO THE E AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN
TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E WED AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. BY LATE WED NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE UNDER
15KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 15KT THRU THU AND INTO FRI
AFTN. WINDS MAY INCREASE A LITTLE LATER FRI INTO SAT OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AS LOW PRES MOVES NE THRU THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES
REGION. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07/JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
425 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MO HAVE DEVELOPED IN AXIS OF
DECENT 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A WEAK VORT MAX NOW
ENTERING NORTHWEST MISSOURI. RUC SHOWS THESE FEATURES MOVING EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND GOING FORECAST WHICH BRINGS SCT SHRA/TSRA
EASTWARD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO EARLY THROUGH 12-15Z STILL LOOKS
GOOD. THEREAFTER...AREA WILL LIE UNDER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WEAK
VORT MAX THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN THE MOST UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY.
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AS TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TRANSPORTING 1.5 INCHES PWATS AND INDUCING
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE UNDER INCREASING LARGE
SCALE MID LEVEL ASCENT. HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
USED MOS TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
SEEM REASONABLE.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
MODELS ARE NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING EWD
THROUGH OUR AREA THU AND THU NGT. THE FOCUS OF MOST OF THE
CONVECTION THU MRNG MAY BE ACROSS NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL WHERE
850 MB WAA...THETA E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ON THE NOSE OF A S-SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING 850 MB LOW. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON THU
WHILE A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE
NEWD THROUGH SERN MO AND SRN IL. THERE IS SOME VARIATION WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WITH THE ECMWF MODEL THE FURTHER MOST S
AND THE GFS THE FURTHER MOST N. EVEN THE MOST NRN TRACK HAS THE
SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH OR JUST S OF STL. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL LEFT OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THU WILL BE COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE AND BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CAA BEGINNING THU AFTN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE ALREADY THU NGT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NEWD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z FRI WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN IL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THU NGT WITH THE MODELS
DROPPING THE 4 DEGREE C 850 MB ISOTHERM SWD THROUGH MUCH OF OUR
AREA BY 12Z FRI. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY RAIN MAINLY ACROSS
W CNTRL IL ON FRI...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE E-NE
OF OUR AREA ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS E-SEWD INTO SRN MO. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON FRI AND FRI NGT. A WEAK NW
FLOW SHORTWAVE MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NERN AND
CNTRL MO AS WELL AS W CNTRL IL LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MRNG. THE NAM
MODEL ALSO DEPICTS LOW-MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO THE ERN US. THE
ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS MORE PRECIPITATION SUN NGT AND MON AS ANOTHER
NW FLOW SHORTWAVE DROPS SEWD THROUGH OUR AREA. THE GFS MODEL ALSO
HAS CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA LATE SUN NGT THROUGH TUE BUT IS
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK PROBLEMS CAUSING THE
SHORTWAVE TO AMPLIFY TOO MUCH AND LEADING TO TOO MUCH QPF. FOR
THIS REASON WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
OVER THE GFS MODEL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO OUR
AREA MON AND TUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KC METRO AREA AND THIS WAS A KEY
AREA FOR PCPN TO DEVELOP IF IT IS TO AFFECT THE I-70 TERMINALS.
WITH THAT NOW CONFIRMED...HAVE PLACED IN VCTS OR VCSH IN THE TAFS
ALG I-70 FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE
OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...A PRETTY DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW
15KFT WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
SFC HI PRES DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REGION. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THRU LATER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD CARRY WITH IT NON-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT THE TIMING OF IT FAVORED BY MOST MODELS WILL
NOT BRING IT IN UNTIL NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE VALID PERIOD ENDS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT N SFC WNDS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SFC WNDS VEERING NE
LATE. HAVE ADDED IN VCSH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCT SHRA BEING ON THE
NRN EDGE OF WHERE WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION OVER IN KC METRO TO
GO. THE MAIN ROUND OF PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
301 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MO HAVE DEVELOPED IN AXIS OF
DECENT 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A WEAK VORT MAX NOW
ENTERING NORTHWEST MISSOURI. RUC SHOWS THESE FEATURES MOVING EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND GOING FORECAST WHICH BRINGS SCT SHRA/TSRA
EASTWARD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO EARLY THROUGH 12-15Z STILL LOOKS
GOOD. THEREAFTER...AREA WILL LIE UNDER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WEAK
VORT MAX THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN THE MOST UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY.
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AS TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TRANSPORTING 1.5 INCHES PWATS AND INDUCING
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE UNDER INCREASING LARGE
SCALE MID LEVEL ASCENT. HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
USED MOS TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
SEEM REASONABLE.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KC METRO AREA AND THIS WAS A KEY
AREA FOR PCPN TO DEVELOP IF IT IS TO AFFECT THE I-70 TERMINALS.
WITH THAT NOW CONFIRMED...HAVE PLACED IN VCTS OR VCSH IN THE TAFS
ALG I-70 FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE
OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...A PRETTY DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW
15KFT WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
SFC HI PRES DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REGION. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THRU LATER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD CARRY WITH IT NON-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT THE TIMING OF IT FAVORED BY MOST MODELS WILL
NOT BRING IT IN UNTIL NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE VALID PERIOD ENDS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT N SFC WNDS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SFC WNDS VEERING NE
LATE. HAVE ADDED IN VCSH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCT SHRA BEING ON THE
NRN EDGE OF WHERE WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION OVER IN KC METRO TO
GO. THE MAIN ROUND OF PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1215 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND ARE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST. HAVE UPPPED POPS TO CHANCE TOWARD 12Z ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR FOLLOWING THE HRRR/RAP.
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
00Z NAM IS MOSTLY IN AND IS SHOWING NO PRECIP AT ALL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWFA. RAP AND HRRR STILL DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF STORMS AROUND
KANSAS CITY AND MOVE THEM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO NEAR COLUMBIA BY 10Z
AND CONTINUING TO SOUTHWEST OF THE STL METRO AREA BY 12Z. HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...BUT THE GIST IS STILL CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPING LATE
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO
THE LOW 60S IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...WARMER
IN THE METRO AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RE-EVALUATE LATER
TONIGHT WHEN THE GFS COMES IN.
CARNEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
(TONIGHT)
MDLS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO
PORTIONS OF CNTL MO LATE TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP/MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT FORCING IS
SOMEWHAT MINIMAL. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT LOW CHANCE.
TRENDED TEMPS TONIGHT TWD THE WARMER GUIDANCE...AT LEAST ACROSS
THE SRN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH A WEAK SECONDARY
CDFNT MOVING INTO THE AREA...BELIEVE CLOUDS MOVING IN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE.
TILLY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
MAIN ATTENTION THROUGH FRIDAY IS FOCUSED ON THE SHORT WAVE TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. FOR WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
LEVEL WAA/FRONTOGENTECIALY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA DURING THE MORNING SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 IN MO...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD
BE MARKED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM.
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z CYCLE
AND THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THE AFOREMENTIONED PAC NW SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AMPLIFY...WHILE A
LEAD IMPULSE TRACKS IN THE VICINITY OF THE OK/KS BORDER INTO SW MO
BY 12Z THURS. IN RESPONSE A LARGE REGION OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY WITH A 30-40 KT SLY
LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT AS
WELL. A LARGE REGION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITH MORE INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO AND POINTS SOUTH. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT
EASTWARD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION ON WED NIGHT...BUT THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD BE TO AT LEAST THE MS RIVER BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE
SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST ON THURSDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONTINUE PROGRESSION AND DIGGING OF THE UPPER
LOW/TROF INTO THE MS VALLEY. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INHIBIT MUCH TEMPERATURE REBOUND. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD THEN MOVE TO THE EAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING YET PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD. THE HIGHEST POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL IL...TAPERING SIGNIFICANTLY BACK INTO CENTRAL
MO.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW
AND TROF SLIDING EASTWARD AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE LEAST I AM EXPECTING EXTENSIVE STRATUS/STRATOCU...AND
POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE
CWA. H85 TEMPS OF +3/+5 DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE 2 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST OF WELL
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THE DAY.
THE BOUT OF COOL WEATHER LOOKS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER WITH HEIGHTS
ALOFT ON THE RISE SAT-SUN AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF EXITS TO THE ENE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN FACT...H5 HEIGHTS RISE SOME +240
METERS FROM 12Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN...AND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS SSWLY WITH H85 TEMPS OF +20 TO +22. FROM LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SAGGING WEST-EAST
FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KC METRO AREA AND THIS WAS A KEY
AREA FOR PCPN TO DEVELOP IF IT IS TO AFFECT THE I-70 TERMINALS.
WITH THAT NOW CONFIRMED...HAVE PLACED IN VCTS OR VCSH IN THE TAFS
ALG I-70 FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE
OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...A PRETTY DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW
15KFT WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
SFC HI PRES DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REGION. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THRU LATER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD CARRY WITH IT NON-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT THE TIMING OF IT FAVORED BY MOST MODELS WILL
NOT BRING IT IN UNTIL NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE VALID PERIOD ENDS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT N SFC WNDS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SFC WNDS VEERING NE
LATE. HAVE ADDED IN VCSH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCT SHRA BEING ON THE
NRN EDGE OF WHERE WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION OVER IN KC METRO TO
GO. THE MAIN ROUND OF PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1202 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND ARE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST. HAVE UPPPED POPS TO CHANCE TOWARD 12Z ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR FOLLOWING THE HRRR/RAP.
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
00Z NAM IS MOSTLY IN AND IS SHOWING NO PRECIP AT ALL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWFA. RAP AND HRRR STILL DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF STORMS AROUND
KANSAS CITY AND MOVE THEM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO NEAR COLUMBIA BY 10Z
AND CONTINUING TO SOUTHWEST OF THE STL METRO AREA BY 12Z. HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...BUT THE GIST IS STILL CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPING LATE
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO
THE LOW 60S IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...WARMER
IN THE METRO AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RE-EVALUATE LATER
TONIGHT WHEN THE GFS COMES IN.
CARNEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
(TONIGHT)
MDLS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO
PORTIONS OF CNTL MO LATE TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP/MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT FORCING IS
SOMEWHAT MINIMAL. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT LOW CHANCE.
TRENDED TEMPS TONIGHT TWD THE WARMER GUIDANCE...AT LEAST ACROSS
THE SRN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH A WEAK SECONDARY
CDFNT MOVING INTO THE AREA...BELIEVE CLOUDS MOVING IN WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE.
TILLY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
MAIN ATTENTION THROUGH FRIDAY IS FOCUSED ON THE SHORT WAVE TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. FOR WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
LEVEL WAA/FRONTOGENTECIALY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA DURING THE MORNING SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 IN MO...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD
BE MARKED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM.
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z CYCLE
AND THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THE AFOREMENTIONED PAC NW SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AMPLIFY...WHILE A
LEAD IMPULSE TRACKS IN THE VICINITY OF THE OK/KS BORDER INTO SW MO
BY 12Z THURS. IN RESPONSE A LARGE REGION OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY WITH A 30-40 KT SLY
LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT AS
WELL. A LARGE REGION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITH MORE INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO AND POINTS SOUTH. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT
EASTWARD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION ON WED NIGHT...BUT THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD BE TO AT LEAST THE MS RIVER BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE
SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST ON THURSDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONTINUE PROGRESSION AND DIGGING OF THE UPPER
LOW/TROF INTO THE MS VALLEY. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INHIBIT MUCH TEMPERATURE REBOUND. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD THEN MOVE TO THE EAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING YET PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD. THE HIGHEST POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL IL...TAPERING SIGNIFICANTLY BACK INTO CENTRAL
MO.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW
AND TROF SLIDING EASTWARD AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE LEAST I AM EXPECTING EXTENSIVE STRATUS/STRATOCU...AND
POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE
CWA. H85 TEMPS OF +3/+5 DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE 2 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST OF WELL
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THE DAY.
THE BOUT OF COOL WEATHER LOOKS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER WITH HEIGHTS
ALOFT ON THE RISE SAT-SUN AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF EXITS TO THE ENE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN FACT...H5 HEIGHTS RISE SOME +240
METERS FROM 12Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN...AND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS SSWLY WITH H85 TEMPS OF +20 TO +22. FROM LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SAGGING WEST-EAST
FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
VFR CONDITIONS AND N SFC WNDS SLOWLY VEERING TO NE WILL BE THE
STORY OVER THE NEXT 24-30HRS AT THE TAF SITES. TWO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL DICTATE THE WX OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS AS A SFC
HI PRES BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THRU MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS SLATED TO MOVE THRU LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL COINCIDE WITH AND BE
JUST TO THE N OF EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER IN S CNTRL KS AND
WILL HELP TO PUSH LO PROBABILITIES OF RAIN MUCH FURTHER N AND NE
THAN WHERE THE MCS WILL TRACK. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FORCING
AND MOISTENING OCCURRING AT THE RIGHT TIME AND LOCATION TO WARRANT
A LO THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR MAINLY IN MO
BETWEEN 08-13Z. PROBABILITY IS LO ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO JUST
CONTINUE THE LOWER VFR CIGS MENTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...AS WHAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST. THIS
FORCING EXITS QUICKLY BY 13-14Z WEDNESDAY AND WILL LEAVE A PRETTY
DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW 15KFT THRU THE REST OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD
AS SFC HI PRES DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REGION. THE SECOND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL THRU LATER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD CARRY WITH IT NON-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT THE TIMING OF IT FAVORED BY MOST MODELS WILL
NOT BRING IT IN UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD ENDS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT N SFC WNDS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SFC WNDS VEERING NE
LATE. ONLY PCPN EXPECTED IS LO PROBABILITY/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA IN A
WINDOW FROM 09-13Z...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHCS ON THE SWRN METRO
AREA TOWARDS KSUS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO
OVERCOME INHIBITION AND GENERATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION.
PROBABILITIES AND EXPECTED COVERAGE ARE LO ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
JUST CONTINUE THE 7KFT CIG FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FOREGO VC OR
TEMPO WHICH WOULD BE HITTING IT TOO STRONG.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
438 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...HELPING TO BREAK DOWN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST
COAST. A SECONDARY RIDGE AXIS HAS PUSHED ON THE WEST COAST...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. A FEW
SCATTERED RETURNS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY NOT HITTING THE
GROUND AT THE CURRENT TIME.
THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
THE WAVE MOVES CLOSER ESPECIALLY BEFORE THE 18Z TIME FRAME. THE SREF
AND GFS BOTH EXPECT POPS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE THE NAM...EC AND 4 KM WRF KEEP
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE HRRR REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH VERY LITTLE POPS GENERATED AT ALL.
REGRETTABLY...FILLING IN OF THE POPS ALONG THE TROUGH THIS MORNING
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
REGARDING POPS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE OPEN WAVE PUSHES CLOSER TO
THE PLAINS...EXPECTING MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE LOW...HOWEVER
THE GFS DOES ADVERTISE NEARLY 1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE SKIRTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHER AXIS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. GIVEN THIS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE MENTION
OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. BULK
SHEAR VECTORS FROM 0 TO 6 KM ALSO ARE INDICATIVE OF SEVERE CHANCES
WITH NEARLY 35 TO 50 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE FAR
NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN THUNDERSTORM FREE WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...THE SREF...NAM...GFS...AND
ECMWF ALL SUGGEST CONTINUED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE OVEN WAVE
PUSHES PAST THE REGION. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DECREASE DRASTICALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...THUS EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...COMPLETELY
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE COULD GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS INDICATES NEAR 1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
NOSING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
QUICKLY DECREASING AGAIN WITH NIGHTFALL. THUS ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO BE QUITE TRICKY DEPENDING BOTH ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. WENT WITH LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR TODAY...WHILE
EXPECT MUCH OF AREA ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A BIT ON FRIDAY...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
MIXING DURING THE DAY TO NEARLY 800 MB. GIVEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER...STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A NOTABLE WARMING TREND. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTING IN HOT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A WEAK 500MB VORT MAX
TRACKING BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA LEADING TO A LOW
END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. OUR
MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY
BUT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK VORT MAX TRYING TO PRESS UP
ON THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL CARRY THE POPS ON TUESDAY...BUT LOWERED
THEM BY 20 PERCENT BELOW CONSALL MODEL BLEND DUE TO DOUBTS ABOUT
VERY MANY THUNDERSTORMS BEING ABLE TO FORM UNDER A RATHER DOMINATING
UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE VFR CATEGORY
CEILING/VISIBILITY. HOWEVER...PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS
SUCH AS A FEW 5SM OBS. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND
SUNRISE. DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE ANY KIND OF ALL
DAY RAINOUT. ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT AFFECT KGRI DURING THE TAF
VALID PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
103 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE VFR CATEGORY
CEILING/VISIBILITY. HOWEVER...PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS
SUCH AS A FEW 5SM OBS. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND
SUNRISE. DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE ANY KIND OF ALL
DAY RAINOUT. ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT AFFECT KGRI DURING THE TAF
VALID PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
UPDATE...RECENTLY COMPLETED A RELATIVELY MINOR UPDATE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO PULL ALL MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BEFORE 09Z...AND ALTHOUGH KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE ALL AREAS AFTER 09Z...PULLED THUNDER MENTION FROM A HANDFUL
OF NORTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE BLOSSOMING
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 50 MILES OR SO SOUTHEAST OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
THIS CONVECTION SEEMS BEST TIED TO THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND THE
700MB LEVEL...ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE NORTHWARD-
RETURNING INSTABILITY AXIS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WITHIN THE
CWA WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHEN MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/SATURATION INCREASES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LAYER TAKES PLACE...BUT THIS TIME AIMED MUCH MORE SO
INTO AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. MODEL QPF IS ALL OVER
THE PLACE...WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS BARELY BRINGING ANYTHING
INTO THE CWA BEFORE SUNRISE...WHILE BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS AT LEAST
BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH NOT
NECESSARILY ANTICIPATING A LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SEVERE
THREAT...INSERTED PENNY SIZE HAIL MENTION INTO THE HWO TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE NAM DEPICTION OF 500-1000+ J/KG MUCAPE INTO
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...PULLED ALL
OVERNIGHT THUNDER MENTION FROM NORTHEAST ZONES AS SUFFICIENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH NORTHEAST OF AN ORD-
GENEVA LINE. MADE VERY LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...BUT NUDGED DOWN 1 DEGREE OR SO SOME AREAS BASED ON LATEST
HOURLY GFS LAMP GUIDANCE...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM MID-UPPER 40S
FAR NORTH...TO MID 50S IN KS ZONES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE SHORT TERM. A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN A ROUGHLY EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION. SATELLITE CONFIRMS A DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BLOW UP INTO A BUSY THUNDERSTORM
SCENARIO IN SOUTHERN KANSAS AND POINTS SOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
BOUNDARY IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWA FROM THIS MECHANISM.
FOR TONIGHT...THE NAM HAS ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS A
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND SETTING UP LATE TONIGHT FROM 09Z TO 12Z
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL
WHERE THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP...AND I CALCULATE THE NEED TO ADD
SOME SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD TO THE
ENTIRE CWA. WITH MUCAPES JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDER
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A STRONG STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN
OUR FAR SOUTH WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR.
I INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS
THERE ARE MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS IN. SREF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA...BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. TIMING OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO FAVOR
AFTERNOON FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND ON AND OFF SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE TO CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOW SOME CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND VERY LITTLE AFTER 06Z. THE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWERS AROUND. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE EAST SO EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME CLOUDS WITH THE
UPPER LOW SPINNING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THURSDAY.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND DESPITE A FEW VERY WEAK WAVES DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND DURING THIS
TIME.
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN WESTERN KANSAS AND THERE IS A TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA BETTER
AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY THE UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT...BUT ANOTHER
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW
MUCH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THERE WILL BE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1107 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.UPDATE...RECENTLY COMPLETED A RELATIVELY MINOR UPDATE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO PULL ALL MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BEFORE 09Z...AND ALTHOUGH KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE ALL AREAS AFTER 09Z...PULLED THUNDER MENTION FROM A HANDFUL
OF NORTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE BLOSSOMING
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 50 MILES OR SO SOUTHEAST OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
THIS CONVECTION SEEMS BEST TIED TO THETA-E ADVECTION AROUND THE
700MB LEVEL...ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE NORTHWARD-
RETURNING INSTABILITY AXIS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WITHIN THE
CWA WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHEN MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/SATURATION INCREASES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LAYER TAKES PLACE...BUT THIS TIME AIMED MUCH MORE SO
INTO AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. MODEL QPF IS ALL OVER
THE PLACE...WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS BARELY BRINGING ANYTHING
INTO THE CWA BEFORE SUNRISE...WHILE BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS AT LEAST
BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH NOT
NECESSARILY ANTICIPATING A LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SEVERE
THREAT...INSERTED PENNY SIZE HAIL MENTION INTO THE HWO TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE NAM DEPICTION OF 500-1000+ J/KG MUCAPE INTO
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...PULLED ALL
OVERNIGHT THUNDER MENTION FROM NORTHEAST ZONES AS SUFFICIENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH NORTHEAST OF AN ORD-
GENEVA LINE. MADE VERY LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...BUT NUDGED DOWN 1 DEGREE OR SO SOME AREAS BASED ON LATEST
HOURLY GFS LAMP GUIDANCE...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM MID-UPPER 40S
FAR NORTH...TO MID 50S IN KS ZONES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR
CATEGORY CEILING/VISIBILITY...PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS.
FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL OMIT THIS MVFR POSSIBILITY FROM THE
TAF...BUT WILL CARRY A LOW-END VFR CEILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. STARTING WITH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL...WITH A FAIRLY SOLID MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK SLATED TO ARRIVE BY SUNRISE. ON WEDNESDAY...MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT PRECIPITATION
IS UNLIKELY TO BE NON-STOP. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO GO WITH PROB30
GROUPS TO COVER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NOW...AND WILL DEFER
TO LATER SHIFTS TO ADD MORE DETAILED PREVAILING/TEMPO GROUPS AS
THE RAIN EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. IT APPEARS ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT
AFFECT KGRI ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE SHORT TERM. A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN A ROUGHLY EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION. SATELLITE CONFIRMS A DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BLOW UP INTO A BUSY THUNDERSTORM
SCENARIO IN SOUTHERN KANSAS AND POINTS SOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
BOUNDARY IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWA FROM THIS MECHANISM.
FOR TONIGHT...THE NAM HAS ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS A
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND SETTING UP LATE TONIGHT FROM 09Z TO 12Z
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL
WHERE THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP...AND I CALCULATE THE NEED TO ADD
SOME SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD TO THE
ENTIRE CWA. WITH MUCAPES JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDER
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A STRONG STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN
OUR FAR SOUTH WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR.
I INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS
THERE ARE MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS IN. SREF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA...BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. TIMING OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO FAVOR
AFTERNOON FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND ON AND OFF SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE TO CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOW SOME CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND VERY LITTLE AFTER 06Z. THE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWERS AROUND. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE EAST SO EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME CLOUDS WITH THE
UPPER LOW SPINNING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THURSDAY.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND DESPITE A FEW VERY WEAK WAVES DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND DURING THIS
TIME.
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN WESTERN KANSAS AND THERE IS A TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA BETTER
AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY THE UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT...BUT ANOTHER
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW
MUCH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THERE WILL BE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
430 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW 60S. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN OK...SWRN
MO...WRN AR...AND NERN TX. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE FAILED RATHER
MISERABLY IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THIS MCS IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME
HAVING IT DISPLACED MUCH TOO FAR NORTH. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE ALSO FIRED RECENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AR. MESOSCALE
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR HAVE PERFORMED MUCH BETTER AND WILL FOLLOW
THOSE FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY. THAT BEING SAID...THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA THIS
MORNING. ITS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AN UNCAPPED...MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN
AR...SWRN TN...NWRN MS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE THERE WITH DIMINISHING POPS TO THE EAST. LARGE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES RISE AGAIN
INTO THE LOW 90S MAY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING OVER OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY MORNING. ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WHICH WILL GROW INTO ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW
FAR EAST THIS MCS WILL TRACK OVERNIGHT...SOME INDICATIONS SUGGEST
IT MAY REACH EASTERN ARKANSAS LATE. THEREFORE...KEPT MODERATE CHC
POPS ACROSS THAT REGION.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY
AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD A WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR.
WHILE WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW AT LEAST EARLY...MODERATELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. THE
RISK OF SEVERE WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MAY SEE MESSY CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
EVENTUALLY FORM A SQUALL LINE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER
21Z-00Z WITH ATTENDANT WIND DAMAGE THREAT. LOW LEVEL FLOW/VEERING
DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT SO WILL REMOVE
THAT THREAT FROM THE HWO.
GFS STILL LAGS BACK WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH ALL OTHER LARGE
SCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DRYING THINGS OUT BY 12Z FRIDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING A REFRESHING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WAA RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE
AXIS A BIT WESTWARD WITH RECENT RUNS AND NOW KEEPS THE MIDSOUTH IN
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A PESKY WEAK FRONT REMAINING IN PLACE.
THUS...SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
SUNDAY AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK WARM...UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT TUP
BETWEEN 30/09-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A STALLED OUT SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEARBY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON WEDNESDAY MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER
30/19Z AT MEM/JBR/TUP. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
BETWEEN 5-7 KTS AND VEERING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 93 73 82 56 / 40 30 90 50
MKL 92 66 81 55 / 20 30 80 70
JBR 90 69 77 54 / 40 40 90 30
TUP 93 69 86 58 / 20 20 60 80
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1157 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
LIFR FOG VSBYS CKV PER LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY THRU 30/10Z...OTHERWISE SOME MVFR FOG CSV PER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING THRU 30/12Z. EXPECT WEAK RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC
AND ALOFT AND QUASI STATIONARY SFC FRONT TO PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST
SCT CU/BKN AC BY 30/18Z. ISO SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ISO AT BEST AND WILL NOT MENTION AT TAF SITES AS OF THIS
TIME. DIURNAL INFLUENCES SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 31/02Z WITH SCT AC
REMAINING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 704 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE MID STATE AT 21Z.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. RUC AND WRF SOLUTIONS
DO NOT SHOW ANY REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WHICH
ROUGHLY COVERS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL THEREFORE BEGIN
TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
OTW...THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS WEAKENED. LAPS
DATA SHOWED CAPES APPROACHING 3,000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WHEN THE TSTM WIND DMG WAS ONGOING. CURRENTLY...CAPES ARE 2400 MAX
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. SO ALL IN ALL...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT
MORE SEVERE WX WILL OCCUR. I WILL HOWEVER...BOOST POPS TO 50
PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING.
THE PRECIP SHOULD END BY 06Z.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE PUSHING ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AND
PUT AN END TO THE CONVECTION BY 06Z FOR THE CSV AREA. OTW...WILL
SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSV
AREA WHERE VSBYS OF 1-3 SM WILL BE COMMON BY 12Z.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME FEW/SCT AFT CU.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 251 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WX PROBABILITIES...THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
AT MID AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE
PLATEAU...AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER WEST KY JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS MID TN. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SETTLE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT SETUP
APPEARS PRETTY GOOD FOR SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME DRIER OVER MID TN...BUT WITH
FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A COUPLE OF WEAK
IMPULSES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL ON
WEDNESDAY IF ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
DOWN SLIGHTLY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN USUALLY DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CROSS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. SPC
HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD ALSO BE
EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW ALL THE INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER...BUT A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYS...WHICH IS PRETTY RARE IN RECENT HISTORY. THE COOL PERIOD WILL
BE BRIEF. RISING HEIGHTS WILL PUMP TEMPERATURES UP AGAIN WELL INTO
THE 80S SUNDAY AND SOME 90S FOR MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS WILL RETURN AFTER THAT AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME
DEVELOPS...THEN THE AREA GETS ON THE FRINGE OF NW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW (MCS PATTERN).
13
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
405 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE BOUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MUCH OF THIS POTENTIAL HINGES ON A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT HAS ALREADY ENTERED OUR FAR NERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF 15-25 MPH EASTERLY WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY IS COURTESY OF A
SERIES OF NOCTURNAL STORMS IN OKLAHOMA WHICH UNFORTUNATELY WERE NOT
HANDLED WELL AT ALL BY 00Z MODELS. GIVEN THIS OVERSIGHT BY THE
MODELS...THIS FORECAST IS THE RECIPIENT OF A RESPECTABLE DOSE OF
SOUTH PLAINS SVR WX CLIMATOLOGY AND PATTERN RECOGNITION.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN STALLING LATER THIS MORNING
ROUGHLY NEAR A SILVERTON TO GUTHRIE LINE AT WHICH TIME A WEAK
SURFACE LOW NEAR CLOVIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. MUCH OF THIS
EASTWARD PUSH WILL BE DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING IN VERY DRY AIR...BUT
SOME CONTRIBUTION CAN BE TRACED TO A NEARBY MINOR S/W TROF EMBEDDED
IN W-NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SHARPEN JUST OFF THE
CAPROCK BY MIDDAY AND INTERSECT THE OUTFLOW BDRY AND NEARBY SURFACE
LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE OR NRN ROLLING PLAINS. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NSSL-WRF AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING THE OUTFLOW BDRY IN PLACE BY MID-AFTN
WITH A TEXTBOOK DRYLINE BULGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
LUBBOCK. AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE AMPLE HEADWAY
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...BUT FAIL TO OVERWHELM DEEP MOISTURE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BDRY. ADD TO THIS A LFQ OF AN UPPER JET
MAXIMUM AND LIFT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR CI NEAR/SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. SUGGESTED EXTREME CAPE ALONE PER THE HRRR AND
NSSL-WRF WARRANT SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN
IS THE NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BDRY WHICH MAY INSPIRE ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HWO.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SETUP WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
AS THE S/W TROF PASSES THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTH FROM WRN KANSAS BEFORE OVERTAKING THE SOUTH PLAINS THU MRNG. A
PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LOCALLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
BACKGROUND ASCENT ON THE DECLINE BEHIND THE S/W TROF...FEEL POPS MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME BEING REALIZED UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN
THE NIGHT. FOR THIS REASON HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NRN TIER OF COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WHERE ELEVATED CAPE MAY BE PUT TO
WORK ONCE LL LIFT INTENSIFIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...
FLOW ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TO EVOLVE TO NW FLOW ON THURSDAY...THANKS
TO AN AMPLIFYING UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THREE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES THE FIRST OF WHICH
IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A MODERATELY STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WHILE THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE HIGH PLAINS WILL USHER IN A SECONDARY STRONGER
FRONTAL PUSH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE HINTS AT NORTHERLY
SFC WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH...WHICH IS NOT TOO SURPRISING GIVEN THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS INDUCED BY A 1018 MB SFC RIDGE NNE
OF THE REGION. WILL THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE COOLER TEMPS FOR
TOMORROW /MID 70S NW TO MID 80S SE/ AND A GRADUAL WARMUP THEREAFTER.
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DISPLAYED RATHER LIGHT QPF VALUES
NEARING THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WITH A
QUICK DIMINISHMENT LIKELY DUE TO THE DRYER AIR THAT WILL BE
TRANSPORTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE.
FURTHERMORE...FRONTEGENTICAL FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THUS LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
BE THE RULE /KEEPING POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE/. CONCURRENTLY...THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO BE A CUTOFF LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE SSE ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY...GIVING
LITTLE FANFARE FOR THE FA.
NW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH PLAINS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT...SFC WINDS VEERING TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT STORMS FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS QUITE BULLISH IN SHOWING THIS IN ADDITION TO
PRECIP NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE...COINCIDING WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AXIS. THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH MORE
PESSIMISTIC...WITH ONLY RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR STORMS TO DRIFT FROM HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND TOWARDS THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW
ALOFT...HOWEVER DESPITE THE BULLISH BEHAVIOR PORTRAYED FROM THE
GFS...IT AND NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE BEST PRECIP ACROSS
PANHANDLES. WILL OPT TO INCREASE POPS TO BETWEEN 10-14 PERCENT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...THUS BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS ATTM.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UA RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING. KEEPING
IN MIND THAT ON SATURDAY THE FLOW ALOFT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK NWLY FLOW...THE FIRST IMPULSE APPEAR TO SPARK STORMS ACROSS
THE SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EASTERN ZONES...AS THE TRANSPORT OF
GULF MOISTURE INDUCE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HENCE PROGGED
PWATS NEARING 1.70 INCHES...A WEAK CAP AND SLIGHT SYNOPTIC LIFT
CAN NOT BE IGNORED. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE SECOND IMPULSE
WILL CREATE THE RETURN OF THE SLOSHING DRYLINE...WHICH IS SHOWN TO
RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...AS FLOW ALOFT
EVOLVES TO SW FLOW DUE TO AN INCOMING PACIFIC UA LOW. THE CAP
APPEARS RELATIVELY STRONG AS THE GFS IS VOID OF PRECIP DESPITE A
LINGERING DRYLINE...VERSUS SIGNALS OF PRECIP ALONG THE DRYLINE EACH
EVENING PER THE ECMWF. WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS BEYOND SATURDAY
NIGHT ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 91 57 76 52 83 / 0 20 10 10 10
TULIA 94 59 77 53 83 / 10 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 98 60 78 54 83 / 0 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 98 62 81 55 85 / 0 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 99 63 81 55 84 / 0 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 98 61 83 56 86 / 0 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 99 63 82 56 85 / 0 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 97 65 83 57 83 / 30 30 10 10 10
SPUR 102 63 83 57 86 / 0 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 102 66 85 57 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1113 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...
THEN DEPART ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 0-6KM ALONG WITH
MARGINAL SFC CAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND
AROUND 700 TO 1000 J/KG FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS. LAYER PW VALUES ARE
ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT WILL STILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE 1 INCH.
WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO STREAM IN FROM LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CAROLINAS. ALONG WITH THIS...THINK THIS
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUT TOWARDS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE ESPECIALLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO START OUT ISOLATED AND GROW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
TOWARDS EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS A SIMILAR DEPICTION IN ITS
REFLECTIVITY FIELDS. CONVECTION OVERALL WILL BE LOW TOPPED FROM
20-30KFT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING AND
HIGHER DCAPE VALUES.
CONCERNING TEMPS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED BY A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST DID NOT HAVE MANY CHANGES EITHER WITH THE LAST UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
ENDING W TO E. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40 TO LOWER 50S BY THU AFTN AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
MEANWHILE...BERYL IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
PASSING WELL SE OF THE AREA ON THU. REFER TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
ONLY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM BERYL WILL BE MARINE RELATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE REMNANTS TROPICAL CYCLONE
BERYL PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE NORTHEAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR BERYL. WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES IN..EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BACK TO AN ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH
WILL AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FIELD AND IN TURN INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DESPITE 925MB
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
NOW FOR THE WEEKEND...SEEMS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THERE BEING GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PASSAGE ON SAT. THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRI...WITH
THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA OCCLUDING...THEN DRAGGING THE FRONT
THROUGH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE LATEST PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING IN CHC FOR THE WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...THEN
SPREADING LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT...THEN
DIMINISHING DOWN SAT NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT INJECTS IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS NOTED HOWEVER
SO HAVE SIDED WITH KEEPING JUST RAIN SHOWERS WITH NO MENTION OF
THUNDER...THOUGH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW FINALLY PUSHES EAST INTO SE CANADA ON
SUN...BRINGING A VORT MAX RIGHT THROUGH THE REGION SUN AFTN.
THIS...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z
MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOUNDINGS HINTING AT CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW THEN PUSHES TO THE EAST AND
SETTLES OFFSHORE OF MAINE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS NO DEVELOPMENT YET DEEPENS
THE LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST MORE. WITH THE MODEL DISCREPANCY...SIDED
MOSTLY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MON INTO WED...KEEPING SLIGHT
CHC POPS AND THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTN HOURS UNDER THE
PERSISTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SAT AND SUN. HOWEVER...TEMPS
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS
FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND PASS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDS TODAY WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH OCNL SPRINKLES/SHOWERS FALLING
FROM A BKN-OVC MID LEVEL DECK. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAKING IT TO THE NYC
METRO TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT INCLUDING THUNDER ATTM AS
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT LOOKS AT LEAST WORTH A MENTION OF
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...TURNING SE AND
THEN S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM 3023/3101...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM 3023/3101...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM 3022/3024...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM 3023/3101...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM 3022/3101...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM 3023/3101...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU-FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SUN...MOSTLY VFR. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THU. WW3 APPEARS TO BE RUNNING
1-2 FT HIGH THROUGH THU AND HAVE ADJUSTED. NEITHER WNA OR NAH
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SWELLS FROM BERYL UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
RESPECTIVELY...BUT MAY SEE THEM AS EARLY AS THU NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO THIS WEEKEND. SEAS
HOWEVER...WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH A
COMBINATION OF A PERSISTENT FLOW AND SWELLS FROM THE PASSAGE OF
BERYL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS.
SEAS AND WINDS DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST NEAR 1.5 INCHES COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTION.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1045 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM...PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE MADE
SOME HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
ALSO SOME MAX TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY.
****PREVIOUS DISCUSSION****
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RAP INDICATE A SMALL SURGE OF
SFC-850 THETA E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MAINLY AFTER 3 PM
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE WOULD BE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY ASSUMING ENOUGH HEATING/SUNSHINE OCCURS PRIOR
TO THIS TIME...WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 500-800 J/KG
CAPE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THIS CAP WEAKENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IN
ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 30-40 KT. THE EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL INCREASES TO AROUND 25000 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. SOME OF THE
TALLER CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD HAVE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...BUT NOTHING IN COMPARISON TO THE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
FROM YESTERDAY.
HAVE GENERALLY SIDED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS...GIVEN
SUCH A WARM START...WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID
80S WITHIN VALLEY REGIONS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW TSTMS MAY
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING FROM ALBANY S AND E...BEFORE DISSIPATING
AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEY REGIONS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
THU-THU NT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH NORTHERN AREAS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF PASSING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
HAVE SIDED CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR TEMPS...BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE...WITH FORECAST MAXES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR THU
NT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO START...FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE...ESP ACROSS S/W AREAS. IT SHOULD BE RATHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FRI-FRI NT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SITUATION...WITH A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...AND A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST...WITH THE
00Z/30 NAM AND ECMWF BRINGING PRECIP FASTER INTO THE REGION FOR FRI
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS/GEM HOLD IT OFF LONGER...UNTIL FRI EVE.
THE NAM SEEMS MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN OR
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AS EARLY AS
FRI AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. AT THIS TIME...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON
THIS...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT SOME RAIN COULD BREAK OUT IN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH CHC POPS AFTER A DRY FRI
MORNING. THEN...LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS FOR FRI NT AS A SOAKING RAIN
OCCURS. FOR TEMPS...SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR
FRI...ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE OCCURS IN THE MORNING...AND RAIN
HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...SHOULD MODERATE RAIN DEVELOP AS
QUICKLY AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...MUCH COOLER MAXES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOR FRI NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/HPC GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED WHICH POINTS
TOWARD A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THIS FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE.
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS POISED TO BE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING TAKING ITS ASSOCIATED RAINFALL/SHOWERS INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND FURTHER EASTWARD. IN ITS WAKE...A COOL AND MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW EVOLVES AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER LOWER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVENCE THIS
WEEKEND. WHILE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES REMAINS IN
QUESTION...IT APPEARS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE THE RESULT.
THERE ARE ADDITIONAL TRENDS SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING OF
THIS UPPER LOW REFORMING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WOULD KEEP THE
COOL AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW /ALONG WITH ATLANTIC MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT/ INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
MAINLY SOUTH OF I90. HOWEVER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
WITH A BROKEN AC DECK. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES....SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH OF KGFL /WHERE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST/. WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...WE WILL PLACE
SHOWERS FOR KPSF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NT-SAT AM...MVFR/IFR. RA LIKELY.
SAT PM-SUN...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING ISOLATATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF ALBANY.
FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
DEW FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH WILL THEN FALL INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 5 MPH
TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY LED TO SOME RIVER
RISES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN VT...WHERE RISES OF
2-3 FT OCCURRED. THESE RIVER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY STARTED DROPPING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH POINT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY REMAINING
UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD CAUSE MINIMAL RIVER
RESPONSES.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1 INCH POSSIBLE. THIS MAY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
725 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE
OCCURRING...MAINLY ACROSS THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
GREENS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. WILL
RETAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM ALBANY S AND E THROUGH AROUND 14Z TO
ACCCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES.
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RAP INDICATE A SMALL SURGE
OF SFC-850 THETA E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MAINLY AFTER
3 PM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE WOULD BE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY ASSUMING ENOUGH HEATING/SUNSHINE OCCURS
PRIOR TO THIS TIME...WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
500-800 J/KG CAPE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS CAP WEAKENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 30-40 KT.
THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL INCREASES TO AROUND 25000 FT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND A FEW LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. SOME OF THE TALLER CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD
HAVE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT NOTHING IN
COMPARISON TO THE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY.
HAVE GENERALLY SIDED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS...GIVEN
SUCH A WARM START...WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID
80S WITHIN VALLEY REGIONS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW TSTMS MAY
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING FROM ALBANY S AND E...BEFORE DISSIPATING
AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEY REGIONS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
THU-THU NT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH NORTHERN AREAS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF PASSING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
HAVE SIDED CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR TEMPS...BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE...WITH FORECAST MAXES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR THU
NT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO START...FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE...ESP ACROSS S/W AREAS. IT SHOULD BE RATHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FRI-FRI NT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SITUATION...WITH A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...AND A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST...WITH THE
00Z/30 NAM AND ECMWF BRINGING PRECIP FASTER INTO THE REGION FOR FRI
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS/GEM HOLD IT OFF LONGER...UNTIL FRI EVE.
THE NAM SEEMS MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN OR
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AS EARLY AS
FRI AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. AT THIS TIME...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON
THIS...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT SOME RAIN COULD BREAK OUT IN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH CHC POPS AFTER A DRY FRI
MORNING. THEN...LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS FOR FRI NT AS A SOAKING RAIN
OCCURS. FOR TEMPS...SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR
FRI...ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE OCCURS IN THE MORNING...AND RAIN
HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...SHOULD MODERATE RAIN DEVELOP AS
QUICKLY AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...MUCH COOLER MAXES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOR FRI NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/HPC GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED WHICH POINTS
TOWARD A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THIS FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE.
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS POISED TO BE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING TAKING ITS ASSOCIATED RAINFALL/SHOWERS INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND FURTHER EASTWARD. IN ITS WAKE...A COOL AND MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW EVOLVES AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER LOWER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVENCE THIS
WEEKEND. WHILE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES REMAINS IN
QUESTION...IT APPEARS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE THE RESULT.
THERE ARE ADDITIONAL TRENDS SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING OF
THIS UPPER LOW REFORMING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WOULD KEEP THE
COOL AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW /ALONG WITH ATLANTIC MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT/ INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
MAINLY SOUTH OF I90. HOWEVER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
WITH A BROKEN AC DECK. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES....SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH OF KGFL /WHERE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST/. WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...WE WILL PLACE
SHOWERS FOR KPSF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NT-SAT AM...MVFR/IFR. RA LIKELY.
SAT PM-SUN...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING ISOLATATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF ALBANY.
FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
DEW FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH WILL THEN FALL INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 5 MPH
TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY LED TO SOME RIVER
RISES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN VT...WHERE RISES OF
2-3 FT OCCURRED. THESE RIVER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY STARTED DROPPING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH POINT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY REMAINING
UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD CAUSE MINIMAL RIVER
RESPONSES.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1 INCH POSSIBLE. THIS MAY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/IAA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
659 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE
OCCURRING...MAINLY ACROSS THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
GREENS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. WILL
RETAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM ALBANY S AND E THROUGH AROUND 14Z TO
ACCCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES.
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM12 AND RAP INDICATE A SMALL SURGE
OF SFC-850 THETA E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MAINLY AFTER
3 PM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE WOULD BE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY ASSUMING ENOUGH HEATING/SUNSHINE OCCURS
PRIOR TO THIS TIME...WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
500-800 J/KG CAPE. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS CAP WEAKENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 30-40 KT.
THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL INCREASES TO AROUND 25000 FT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND A FEW LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. SOME OF THE TALLER CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD
HAVE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT NOTHING IN
COMPARISON TO THE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY.
HAVE GENERALLY SIDED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS...GIVEN
SUCH A WARM START...WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID
80S WITHIN VALLEY REGIONS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW TSTMS MAY
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING FROM ALBANY S AND E...BEFORE DISSIPATING
AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEY REGIONS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
THU-THU NT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH NORTHERN AREAS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF PASSING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
HAVE SIDED CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR TEMPS...BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE...WITH FORECAST MAXES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IN
VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR THU
NT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO START...FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE...ESP ACROSS S/W AREAS. IT SHOULD BE RATHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FRI-FRI NT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SITUATION...WITH A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...AND A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST...WITH THE
00Z/30 NAM AND ECMWF BRINGING PRECIP FASTER INTO THE REGION FOR FRI
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS/GEM HOLD IT OFF LONGER...UNTIL FRI EVE.
THE NAM SEEMS MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN OR
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AS EARLY AS
FRI AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. AT THIS TIME...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON
THIS...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT SOME RAIN COULD BREAK OUT IN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH CHC POPS AFTER A DRY FRI
MORNING. THEN...LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS FOR FRI NT AS A SOAKING RAIN
OCCURS. FOR TEMPS...SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR
FRI...ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE OCCURS IN THE MORNING...AND RAIN
HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...SHOULD MODERATE RAIN DEVELOP AS
QUICKLY AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...MUCH COOLER MAXES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOR FRI NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/HPC GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED WHICH POINTS
TOWARD A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THIS FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE.
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS POISED TO BE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING TAKING ITS ASSOCIATED RAINFALL/SHOWERS INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND FURTHER EASTWARD. IN ITS WAKE...A COOL AND MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW EVOLVES AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER LOWER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVENCE THIS
WEEKEND. WHILE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES REMAINS IN
QUESTION...IT APPEARS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE THE RESULT.
THERE ARE ADDITIONAL TRENDS SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING OF
THIS UPPER LOW REFORMING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WOULD KEEP THE
COOL AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW /ALONG WITH ATLANTIC MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT/ INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHOWER POTENTIAL ALONG WITH WET GROUND AND
PARTIAL CLEARING...MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT
KGFL/KPSF. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WE WILL
PLACE A VCSH.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED NT...IMPROVING TO VFR. SLIGHT CHC SHRA/TSRA EARLY.
THU-FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NT...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRAS WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
SAT-SUN...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING ISOLATATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF ALBANY.
FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
DEW FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH WILL THEN FALL INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 5 MPH
TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY LED TO SOME RIVER
RISES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN VT...WHERE RISES OF
2-3 FT OCCURRED. THESE RIVER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY STARTED DROPPING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH POINT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY REMAINING
UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD CAUSE MINIMAL RIVER
RESPONSES.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1 INCH POSSIBLE. THIS MAY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/IAA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
842 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS MADE MAINLY IN THE TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY. SINCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS NOT REALIZED THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY
MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. RELIABLE NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE INHIBITING CONVECTION UNTIL AT LEAST MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHICH WILL ALLOW SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS A POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE
LINGERING TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS STREAMS NORTHWARD ON
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 3500-4500 J/KG
WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE INITIAL STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
BE REALIZED FARTHER WEST AS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM THE OKLAHOMA
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAVE HELPED PUSH SOME OF THE
DEEPER, RICHER MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS
MORNING AS STRATUS EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD
THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE HIGHEST POPS
WESTWARD MAY BE NECESSARY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
FOR THE NEAR TERM, BASED ON THE THE NAM, RUC AND HRRR SHORTER TERM MODELS,
I LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY PRIOR TO 18Z TODAY, AND LOWERED QPF AS
WELL. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
AND LESS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP, AND THIS WAVE WILL COME
DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY. WITH THAT SAID, THERE
APPEARS ONLY TO BE SLIGHT OVER RUNNING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
JUST SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. SO CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THIS MORNING IN
THE STRATOCU LEVEL, BUT THE INSTABILITY DOES NOT SEEM STRONG
ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION. THE FRONT DOWN IN OKLAHOMA WILL NUDGE
NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE OVER RUNNING OF THE 850MB FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WILL COLLIDE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TRAVELING SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SET UP A 1500-1600
CAPE SITUATION ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA, AND THE SURFACE HEATING BY
THEN WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY 60
PERCENT POPS GOING AFTER 21Z IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES,
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LARNED TO MEADE. IN THE ZONE WORDING, I
WILL HAVE POSSIBLE SEVERE WORDING WITH THE MENTION OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. QPF IS TRICKY, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WOULD PLACE UP TO 1.22 PW IN THE GREENSBURG TO
MEDICINE LODGE AREAS. DO NOT EXPECT THAT AMOUNT IN A BASIN-WIDE
AVERAGE, SO WENT WITH 0.41 INCH INSTEAD. BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES
UP JUST A FEW DEGREES TODAY, THINKING THE DELAYED PRECIPITATION
WILL GIVE THE LIMITED SUN MORE TIME TO WARM THE SURFACE UP.
TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR GENERAL STORMS TO OCCUR IN THE
WRAP AROUND SECTION OF THE UPPER WAVE. DO NOT EXPECT TONIGHT`S
STORMS TO BE SEVERE, BUT MORE OF A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM NATURE.
ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHEN POPS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY, BUT RANGE TO THE UPPER 50S
DOWN IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH EARLY TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY
AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
BY FRIDAY, THE CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A VERY BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
ORIENTED UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ABOUT A 1015-1017 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL DROP FROM THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
REPRESENTS A SOMEWHAT COOL NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN FOR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS DOES PAINT LIGHT QPF WHICH REALLY JUST
REPRESENTS THE MODEL ATTEMPTING TO TURN OVER INSTABILITY, IN THE
WESTERN POSITIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS
MORE PROBABLE NO THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE SUBSIDENT THERMALLY INDIRECT CONVERGENT RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE INCOMING JET SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
RAPIDLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT A STOUT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. DURING THE
TIMEFRAME FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS PRODUCE A SWATH OF QPF SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DEFORMATION IN THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD AND SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, BY CONTRAST, THE NAM MODEL SEEMS TO INDICATE CONVECTION
DEVELOPED DIURNALLY ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS/ MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY LATE IN THE DAY. ISOLATED STORMS SEEM ALL THAT MIGHT
BE EXPECTED. WITH THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS, THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXPECTED MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR LATE FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING THICKNESSES. ECMWF/GFS ELUDE TO THE AREA FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA AS BEING POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE IN A ZONE OF HIGHER THETA-E. LESSER CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO ANY STORM CHANCES BEYOND THIS POINT. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
TAKE ON A FLAT RIDGE PATTERN INTO SUNDAY WITH A NOISY SIGNAL OF
EMBEDDED COMPACT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90S DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT STILL
INDICATE AROUND A 10 DEGREE SPREAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS AIDING LIGHT EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. DESTABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL OCCUR AS STRONG INSOLATION BEGINS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT FRONT NEBRASKA, WITH DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS OVER THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 54 72 47 / 60 50 0 0
GCK 91 52 72 47 / 50 40 0 0
EHA 89 54 76 50 / 40 40 0 0
LBL 92 53 75 49 / 40 40 0 0
HYS 87 52 69 46 / 70 60 0 10
P28 91 59 72 48 / 80 70 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS OK HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO FIND THE
WARM FRONT WITH BEST GUESS IS THAT IT IS IN BETWEEN THE OK-KS BORDER
AND KOKC. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH TODAY ALONG
WITH THE WARM FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
GOING WITH THE THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST-CENTRAL
KS BY AROUND 20Z AS THE BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER
WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER CENTRAL KS AFTER 06Z WHICH WILL
FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND ALSO PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY &
TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...AND A WARMING TREND
WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR TODAY-TONIGHT...AS THEY
HAVE GREATLY STRUGGLED WITH PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROGS THE PAST FEW DAYS. AM TENDING TO SIDE
WITH A 06Z NAM...RUC...HRRR AND NSSL WRF BLEND...WHICH HOLDS OFF
MOST PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS MAKES THE MOST SENSE GIVEN
BRUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SHUNTED SOUTH DUE TO WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SCOURING OUT AIRMASS OVER OK. HOWEVER...DID
HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
HIT-AND-MISS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG STALLED
850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW-SE ACROSS KS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THINKING STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...INTERACTING
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG NORTHERN FRINGE OF STOUT 700MB TEMPERATURES.
THINKING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN INCREASINGLY MODEST/STRONG INSTABILITY (POSSIBLY MAINLY
ELEVATED) AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...THINK THE "HIGHER
END" SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO TX/OK WHERE BEST SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DRYLINE
INTERSECTIONS. THEREFORE...WILL REMOVE "CATEGORY 4" FROM HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. AFTER THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT. THE SEVERITY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
TEMPERED THOUGH DUE TO PREVIOUS ACTIVITY ACTING TO STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THU-FRI IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...ALONG WITH STOUT NORTH WINDS THU. FOR FRIDAY...SUBTLE
MID/UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...AS 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH NOW HINTING AT THIS. ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE
WEATHER.
PER MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS...A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. ADDITIONALLY...HIT-AND-MISS CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND
GIVEN VARIOUS MODEL PROGS OF SUBTLE MID-UPPER ENERGY AND
MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW
REGARDING DETAILS OF TIMING/COVERAGE. ALL-IN-ALL IT APPEARS THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
KLEINSASSER
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN HAZARD: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF TS AT HUT...ICT...AND CNU FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CURRENT SCATTERED TS ACROSS AREA. ACTIVITY SEEMS
TO BE OCCURRING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEAR AND NORTH OF WARM
FRONT. HRRR HAS THIS CONVECTION PUSHING EAST OUT OF AREA AROUND
09-10Z. MODEL SIGNALS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING AN MCS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KS...THEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS INTO WED PM. THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK BEHIND THIS MCS.
THEN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE COLD FRONT AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 83 59 71 49 / 50 70 10 10
HUTCHINSON 82 56 70 48 / 50 70 10 10
NEWTON 81 56 69 48 / 50 70 10 10
ELDORADO 82 58 70 48 / 50 70 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 84 61 72 50 / 50 70 10 10
RUSSELL 80 52 69 47 / 50 70 10 10
GREAT BEND 81 53 70 47 / 50 70 10 10
SALINA 80 55 69 47 / 50 70 10 10
MCPHERSON 81 55 69 47 / 50 70 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 84 64 72 50 / 40 70 30 10
CHANUTE 83 61 70 48 / 40 70 30 10
IOLA 82 61 70 48 / 40 70 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 84 63 71 50 / 40 70 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
648 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
FOR THE NEAR TERM, BASED ON THE THE NAM, RUC AND HRRR SHORTER TERM MODELS,
I LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY PRIOR TO 18Z TODAY, AND LOWERED QPF AS
WELL. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
AND LESS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP, AND THIS WAVE WILL COME
DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY. WITH THAT SAID, THERE
APPEARS ONLY TO BE SLIGHT OVER RUNNING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
JUST SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. SO CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THIS MORNING IN
THE STRATOCU LEVEL, BUT THE INSTABILITY DOES NOT SEEM STRONG
ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION. THE FRONT DOWN IN OKLAHOMA WILL NUDGE
NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE OVER RUNNING OF THE 850MB FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WILL COLLIDE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TRAVELING SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SET UP A 1500-1600
CAPE SITUATION ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA, AND THE SURFACE HEATING BY
THEN WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY 60
PERCENT POPS GOING AFTER 21Z IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES,
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LARNED TO MEADE. IN THE ZONE WORDING, I
WILL HAVE POSSIBLE SEVERE WORDING WITH THE MENTION OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. QPF IS TRICKY, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WOULD PLACE UP TO 1.22 PW IN THE GREENSBURG TO
MEDICINE LODGE AREAS. DO NOT EXPECT THAT AMOUNT IN A BASIN-WIDE
AVERAGE, SO WENT WITH 0.41 INCH INSTEAD. BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES
UP JUST A FEW DEGREES TODAY, THINKING THE DELAYED PRECIPITATION
WILL GIVE THE LIMITED SUN MORE TIME TO WARM THE SURFACE UP.
TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR GENERAL STORMS TO OCCUR IN THE
WRAP AROUND SECTION OF THE UPPER WAVE. DO NOT EXPECT TONIGHT`S
STORMS TO BE SEVERE, BUT MORE OF A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM NATURE.
ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHEN POPS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY, BUT RANGE TO THE UPPER 50S
DOWN IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH EARLY TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY
AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
BY FRIDAY, THE CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A VERY BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
ORIENTED UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ABOUT A 1015-1017 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL DROP FROM THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
REPRESENTS A SOMEWHAT COOL NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN FOR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS DOES PAINT LIGHT QPF WHICH REALLY JUST
REPRESENTS THE MODEL ATTEMPTING TO TURN OVER INSTABILITY, IN THE
WESTERN POSITIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS
MORE PROBABLE NO THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE SUBSIDENT THERMALLY INDIRECT CONVERGENT RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE INCOMING JET SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
RAPIDLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT A STOUT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. DURING THE
TIMEFRAME FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS PRODUCE A SWATH OF QPF SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DEFORMATION IN THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD AND SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, BY CONTRAST, THE NAM MODEL SEEMS TO INDICATE CONVECTION
DEVELOPED DIURNALLY ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS/ MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY LATE IN THE DAY. ISOLATED STORMS SEEM ALL THAT MIGHT
BE EXPECTED. WITH THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS, THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXPECTED MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR LATE FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING THICKNESSES. ECMWF/GFS ELUDE TO THE AREA FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA AS BEING POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE IN A ZONE OF HIGHER THETA-E. LESSER CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO ANY STORM CHANCES BEYOND THIS POINT. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
TAKE ON A FLAT RIDGE PATTERN INTO SUNDAY WITH A NOISY SIGNAL OF
EMBEDDED COMPACT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90S DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT STILL
INDICATE AROUND A 10 DEGREE SPREAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS AIDING LIGHT EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. DESTABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL OCCUR AS STRONG INSOLATION BEGINS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT FRONT NEBRASKA, WITH DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS OVER THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 54 72 45 / 50 40 0 0
GCK 80 52 72 45 / 40 40 0 0
EHA 84 54 76 48 / 40 40 0 0
LBL 83 53 75 47 / 40 40 0 0
HYS 76 52 69 44 / 40 30 0 10
P28 84 59 72 46 / 60 60 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
959 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS.
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A 300MB 100KT JET AXIS PUSHING
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. AT
THE SURFACE, A 1000MB LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND INTO OHIO.
THE FRONT IS MOST INDICATIVE BY ITS WIND SHIFT AND TD GRADIENT.
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE IN A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW TODAY
AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY AND DIURNAL MIXING
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS. HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN A MAV/MET BLEND, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN RIDGES TO THE LOWER 80S IN PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL WV AND EASTERN OHIO.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH A DRIER AIR MASS
SETTLED IN ACROSS THE REGION, 5-10 DEGREES TD DEPRESSIONS WILL
INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MAJORITY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER, CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. THE COOLER NAM IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN
OUTLIER FOR HIGH TEMPS, WITH GFS/ECMWF INDICATING 850 TEMPS AT
7-10C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS, IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
A CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED LOW
WILL PIVOT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT A SURFACE LOW
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. 700MB OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BRING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY AND INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH GFS/NAM INDICATING A WEDGE
OF MODERATE SBCAPE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY 18Z FRIDAY SUPPORT THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER. TOTAL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A HALF OF AN
INCH TO AN INCH FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN-COOLED AIR
AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS
THE AREA DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY IN
THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A ECMWF/GFSE BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LOOK FOR THE MERCURY TO STAY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON
SATURDAY AS H500 LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...A FULL LATITUDE TROF REMAINS FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE FORECAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY AND MODERATE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE RIDGES SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
.OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER H500 LOW APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS ACROSS REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW
EXITS AREA.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1053 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. AS CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S OVER INLAND AREAS NORTH OF
M-20 AND FROST IS EXPECTED. CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WILL BE RAINY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION TRENDS THURSDAY.
* FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT NORTHEAST 6 COUNTIES.
IR LOOP SHOWS STRATOCU ADVECTING EWD FROM WISCONSIN ATTM. WEAK
SHORT WAVES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR TODAY TO CREATE A
BROKEN DECK OF STRATO CU FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CWA TOO. WE
SAW THIS OCCUR IN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY AND SO ADDED ISOLD SHRA TO
THE GRIDS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S NORTH
OF M-20 TONIGHT. ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST 6
COUNTIES FROM 06Z-12Z. IT/S NOT A SLAM DUNK THOUGH AS STRATOCU
COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THAT AREA AND WINDS MAY NOT BE CALM
SINCE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WON/T BE OVERHEAD.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS
MAKES A RUN AT THAT THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED
BY THE MODELS FOR A FEW DAYS AND SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT
WE/LL SEE SOME RAIN FROM IT. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. WE
INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEAST TO LAKE ERIE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD OVER LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE A DAMP AND COOL PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
UPPER TROUGHING ACTUALLY LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOWER MICHIGAN IS LOCATED IN AN AREA IN THE UPPER PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE WE WILL BE IN A TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO
RIDGING. NOT CONFIDENT EXACTLY WHERE WE WILL BE YET...BUT THE
EUROPEAN WOULD INDICATE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF TROUGHING. HAVE
SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME...SO FEEL THE SMALL POPS STILL LOOK OK. WITH TIME WE MAY
NEED TO NUDGE TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DOWN A TAD IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TOWARD UPPER TROUGHING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH BASES IN THE 3500-7000FT
RANGE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
LOW COVERAGE USED VCSH IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST TODAY AT 08-15 KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
THE COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE WILL CAUSE SOME INCREASE IN
THE WAVES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO CAUSE THE WAVES TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM AND THE FLOW
BECOMES OFFSHORE...SUGGESTING WAVES WILL REMAIN LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. A HALF TO AN
INCH OF PCPN IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-96. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
MINOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ038>040-
044>046.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
745 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. AS CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S OVER INLAND AREAS NORTH OF
M-20 AND FROST IS EXPECTED. CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WILL BE RAINY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION TRENDS THURSDAY.
* FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT NORTHEAST 6 COUNTIES.
IR LOOP SHOWS STRATOCU ADVECTING EWD FROM WISCONSIN ATTM. WEAK
SHORT WAVES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR TODAY TO CREATE A
BROKEN DECK OF STRATO CU FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CWA TOO. WE
SAW THIS OCCUR IN WISCONSIN YESTERDAY AND SO ADDED ISOLD SHRA TO
THE GRIDS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S NORTH
OF M-20 TONIGHT. ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST 6
COUNTIES FROM 06Z-12Z. IT/S NOT A SLAM DUNK THOUGH AS STRATOCU
COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THAT AREA AND WINDS MAY NOT BE CALM
SINCE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WON/T BE OVERHEAD.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS
MAKES A RUN AT THAT THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED
BY THE MODELS FOR A FEW DAYS AND SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT
WE/LL SEE SOME RAIN FROM IT. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. WE
INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEAST TO LAKE ERIE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD OVER LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE A DAMP AND COOL PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
UPPER TROUGHING ACTUALLY LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOWER MICHIGAN IS LOCATED IN AN AREA IN THE UPPER PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE WE WILL BE IN A TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO
RIDGING. NOT CONFIDENT EXACTLY WHERE WE WILL BE YET...BUT THE
EUROPEAN WOULD INDICATE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF TROUGHING. HAVE
SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME...SO FEEL THE SMALL POPS STILL LOOK OK. WITH TIME WE MAY
NEED TO NUDGE TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DOWN A TAD IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TOWARD UPPER TROUGHING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH BASES IN THE 3500-7000FT
RANGE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
LOW COVERAGE USED VCSH IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST TODAY AT 08-15 KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 3 FOOT WAVES
TODAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. A HALF TO AN
INCH OF PCPN IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-96. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
MINOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ038>040-
044>046.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
938 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES MOVING OUT OF THE SERN
CWA THIS MORNING.
KANOFSKY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MO HAVE DEVELOPED IN AXIS OF
DECENT 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A WEAK VORT MAX NOW
ENTERING NORTHWEST MISSOURI. RUC SHOWS THESE FEATURES MOVING EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND GOING FORECAST WHICH BRINGS SCT SHRA/TSRA
EASTWARD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO EARLY THROUGH 12-15Z STILL LOOKS
GOOD. THEREAFTER...AREA WILL LIE UNDER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WEAK
VORT MAX THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN THE MOST UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY.
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AS TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TRANSPORTING 1.5 INCHES PWATS AND INDUCING
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE UNDER INCREASING LARGE
SCALE MID LEVEL ASCENT. HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
USED MOS TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
SEEM REASONABLE.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
MODELS ARE NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING EWD
THROUGH OUR AREA THU AND THU NGT. THE FOCUS OF MOST OF THE
CONVECTION THU MRNG MAY BE ACROSS NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL WHERE
850 MB WAA...THETA E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ON THE NOSE OF A S-SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING 850 MB LOW. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON THU
WHILE A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE
NEWD THROUGH SERN MO AND SRN IL. THERE IS SOME VARIATION WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WITH THE ECMWF MODEL THE FURTHER MOST S
AND THE GFS THE FURTHER MOST N. EVEN THE MOST NRN TRACK HAS THE
SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH OR JUST S OF STL. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL LEFT OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THU WILL BE COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE AND BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CAA BEGINNING THU AFTN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE ALREADY THU NGT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NEWD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z FRI WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN IL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THU NGT WITH THE MODELS
DROPPING THE 4 DEGREE C 850 MB ISOTHERM SWD THROUGH MUCH OF OUR
AREA BY 12Z FRI. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY RAIN MAINLY ACROSS
W CNTRL IL ON FRI...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE E-NE
OF OUR AREA ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS E-SEWD INTO SRN MO. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON FRI AND FRI NGT. A WEAK NW
FLOW SHORTWAVE MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NERN AND
CNTRL MO AS WELL AS W CNTRL IL LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MRNG. THE NAM
MODEL ALSO DEPICTS LOW-MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO THE ERN US. THE
ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS MORE PRECIPITATION SUN NGT AND MON AS ANOTHER
NW FLOW SHORTWAVE DROPS SEWD THROUGH OUR AREA. THE GFS MODEL ALSO
HAS CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA LATE SUN NGT THROUGH TUE BUT IS
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK PROBLEMS CAUSING THE
SHORTWAVE TO AMPLIFY TOO MUCH AND LEADING TO TOO MUCH QPF. FOR
THIS REASON WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
OVER THE GFS MODEL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO OUR
AREA MON AND TUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO EAST CENTRAL MO
AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES THROUGH
14Z. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL THEN MOVE OFF AND THE TAF SITES SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND VFR UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-TSRA REMAINING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. INITIAL
VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN WILL LOWER...WITH IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...STILL EXPECT AREA OF -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AROUND
13Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THEN EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AFTER 12Z WHEN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR OR IFR.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
548 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MO HAVE DEVELOPED IN AXIS OF
DECENT 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A WEAK VORT MAX NOW
ENTERING NORTHWEST MISSOURI. RUC SHOWS THESE FEATURES MOVING EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND GOING FORECAST WHICH BRINGS SCT SHRA/TSRA
EASTWARD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO EARLY THROUGH 12-15Z STILL LOOKS
GOOD. THEREAFTER...AREA WILL LIE UNDER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WEAK
VORT MAX THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN THE MOST UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY.
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AS TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TRANSPORTING 1.5 INCHES PWATS AND INDUCING
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE UNDER INCREASING LARGE
SCALE MID LEVEL ASCENT. HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
USED MOS TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
SEEM REASONABLE.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
MODELS ARE NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING EWD
THROUGH OUR AREA THU AND THU NGT. THE FOCUS OF MOST OF THE
CONVECTION THU MRNG MAY BE ACROSS NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL WHERE
850 MB WAA...THETA E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ON THE NOSE OF A S-SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING 850 MB LOW. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON THU
WHILE A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE
NEWD THROUGH SERN MO AND SRN IL. THERE IS SOME VARIATION WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WITH THE ECMWF MODEL THE FURTHER MOST S
AND THE GFS THE FURTHER MOST N. EVEN THE MOST NRN TRACK HAS THE
SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH OR JUST S OF STL. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL LEFT OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THU WILL BE COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE AND BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CAA BEGINNING THU AFTN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE ALREADY THU NGT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NEWD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z FRI WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN IL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THU NGT WITH THE MODELS
DROPPING THE 4 DEGREE C 850 MB ISOTHERM SWD THROUGH MUCH OF OUR
AREA BY 12Z FRI. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY RAIN MAINLY ACROSS
W CNTRL IL ON FRI...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE E-NE
OF OUR AREA ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS E-SEWD INTO SRN MO. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON FRI AND FRI NGT. A WEAK NW
FLOW SHORTWAVE MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NERN AND
CNTRL MO AS WELL AS W CNTRL IL LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MRNG. THE NAM
MODEL ALSO DEPICTS LOW-MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO THE ERN US. THE
ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS MORE PRECIPITATION SUN NGT AND MON AS ANOTHER
NW FLOW SHORTWAVE DROPS SEWD THROUGH OUR AREA. THE GFS MODEL ALSO
HAS CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA LATE SUN NGT THROUGH TUE BUT IS
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK PROBLEMS CAUSING THE
SHORTWAVE TO AMPLIFY TOO MUCH AND LEADING TO TOO MUCH QPF. FOR
THIS REASON WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
OVER THE GFS MODEL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO OUR
AREA MON AND TUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO EAST CENTRAL MO
AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES THROUGH
14Z. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL THEN MOVE OFF AND THE TAF SITES SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND VFR UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-TSRA REMAINING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. INITIAL
VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN WILL LOWER...WITH IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...STILL EXPECT AREA OF -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AROUND
13Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THEN EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AFTER 12Z WHEN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR OR IFR.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1028 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED THE REGION...IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMY COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK...INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. DRY
WEATHER AND EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WETTER PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING SOME
CONVECTION...ALBEIT OF LIMITED COVERAGE. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...UPPER
LEVEL TRIGGER WILL BE ABSENT...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SECONDARY FRONT AND DIURNAL
HEATING FROM INCREASING SUNSHINE NOW OCCURRING...SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD CONVECTION. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
LATEST NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW SEVERAL HUNDRED CAPE...AND
ADEQUATE PRECIPITABLE WATER /ROUGHLY AN INCH/ FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS FAVOR THE INSTABILITY OF NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS...AND ABILITY
TO BREAK CAP...VERSUS GFS SOUNDINGS. COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FROM THE
SEVERE ENVIRONMENT OF YESTERDAY...BUT ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR AND
SOME SPEED SHEAR...COULD YIELD SOME GUSTINESS IN THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER. TIMING OF THINGS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERN ZONES
DRY...YET BETTER COVERAGE THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA LINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH MOIST AIR OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. LIFT IS WEAK, AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT
BE COMPARABLE TO PREVIOUS 24H. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 76F AND 81F THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD SETS UP TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AS WE ARE
IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD LAKE ERIE.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE
LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE DISCREPANCY CONCERNING THE EASTWARD
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
GFS AND EURO KEEP A STRONGER PRESENCE OF AN EXITING ANTICYCLONE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NY. NAM IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE HIGH, AND HAS
THIS FEATURE PLACED FURTHER EASTWARD.
NAM APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. GFS MAY BE UNREALISTICALLY KEEPING THINGS
TOO FAR WEST. EURO LOOKS LIKE A REALISTIC COMPROMISE. WE HAVE
PULLED BACK ON THE EASTERN FA GUIDANCE POPS TO REFLECT GREATER
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN
THE PERIOD BUT REMAINS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND STARTING MONDAY.
STEADY SOAKING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
THAN NORMAL. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL NOW THIS AIR WILL
FEEL COLD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
XTNDD PD FEATURES A LRG UPR LOW BRINGING UNSETTLED WX TO THE FCST
AREA. SFC FNTL BNDRY PASSES LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT USHERING IN
COOLER AIR AS THE UPR LOW SETTLES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AFT A
BRIEF PD OF DRY WX DIRECTLY BHD THE FNT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR LOW ROTATES INTO THE FCST AREA AND LINGERS THRU MUCH OF
THE PD. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE BLO NRML WITH H8 TEMPS TO ARND 8C.
LOW BEGINS TO LIFT LATE IN THE PD...BUT WAA MAY GENERATE A FEW
SHWRS THRU MON.
WITH ONGOING SVR WX...RELIED ON HPC GUID FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD
PD...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
MOST SITES VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELM HAS DENSE FOG NOW AND VLIFR
FOG NOW WHICH SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z. TONIGHT ELM WILL HAVE MVFR VSBY
FOG STARTING AROUND 5Z. DRIER AIR COMING IN SO DENSE FOG NOT AS
LIKELY AS THIS MORNING. BGM AND ITH HAVE MVFR VSBYS NOW WHICH
SHOULD BECOME VFR AROUND 12Z.
TODAY A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
ONE SITE WILL HAVE SHOWERS...TO PUT IT IN NOW. CIGS WILL STAY VFR
WITH DECREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING TO
5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
.OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT
FOG NOT EXPECTED.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY...MVFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. FRIDAY
NIGHT STEADY RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY HIGH OF 93 FOR SYRACUSE FOR MAY 29TH. TIED SECOND
HIGHEST MAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND FIFTH HIGHEST MAY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 80.5.
BGM MISSED THE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE BY ONE DEGREE.
86 VERSUS RECORD 87 IN 1987 AND 1969.
AVP ALSO MISSED THE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE ONE DEGREE.
90 VERSUS 91 IN 1969 AND 1931.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
CLIMATE...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1025 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER NORTHEAST AR AT MIDMORNING.
OVERALL A DECREASING INTENSITY TREND WAS SHOWN BY RADAR...THOUGH A
FEW STRONGER CELLS WERE NOTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AR. THE STORMS
HAD FORMED ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
AR... AND WERE AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...LIFTING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MO.
FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPS OVER NORTHEAST AR AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TN...WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THE COLD POOL FROM THIS MORNING/S STORMS. OTHER UPDATES INCLUDED A
BUMP IN POPS INTO NORTHWEST TN... WHERE OUTFLOW SHOULD STALL NEAR
PEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW 60S. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN OK...SWRN
MO...WRN AR...AND NERN TX. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE FAILED RATHER
MISERABLY IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THIS MCS IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME
HAVING IT DISPLACED MUCH TOO FAR NORTH. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE ALSO FIRED RECENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AR. MESOSCALE
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR HAVE PERFORMED MUCH BETTER AND WILL FOLLOW
THOSE FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY. THAT BEING SAID...THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA THIS
MORNING. ITS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AN UNCAPPED...MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN
AR...SWRN TN...NWRN MS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE THERE WITH DIMINISHING POPS TO THE EAST. LARGE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES RISE AGAIN
INTO THE LOW 90S MAY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING OVER OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY MORNING. ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WHICH WILL GROW INTO ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW
FAR EAST THIS MCS WILL TRACK OVERNIGHT...SOME INDICATIONS SUGGEST
IT MAY REACH EASTERN ARKANSAS LATE. THEREFORE...KEPT MODERATE CHC
POPS ACROSS THAT REGION.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY
AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD A WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR.
WHILE WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW AT LEAST EARLY...MODERATELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. THE
RISK OF SEVERE WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MAY SEE MESSY CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
EVENTUALLY FORM A SQUALL LINE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER
21Z-00Z WITH ATTENDANT WIND DAMAGE THREAT. LOW LEVEL FLOW/VEERING
DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT SO WILL REMOVE
THAT THREAT FROM THE HWO.
GFS STILL LAGS BACK WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH ALL OTHER LARGE
SCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DRYING THINGS OUT BY 12Z FRIDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING A REFRESHING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WAA RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE
AXIS A BIT WESTWARD WITH RECENT RUNS AND NOW KEEPS THE MIDSOUTH IN
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A PESKY WEAK FRONT REMAINING IN PLACE.
THUS...SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
SUNDAY AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK WARM...UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS FORMED ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR KJBR EARLY THIS MORNING AS STORMS
MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS PREVAILING.
LATEST HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION...DAYTIME HEATING...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE ADDED VCTS BACK INTO TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON AT KJBR AND KMEM. FURTHER EAST...THINK THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN KMKL AND KTUP TAF
FORECASTS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE AND RATHER LIGHT...MAINLY
DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE THIS EVENING AS THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS BACK AGAIN FOR LATE TONIGHT AT
KJBR...KMKL...AND KMEM. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 93 73 82 56 / 30 30 90 50
MKL 91 66 81 55 / 20 30 80 70
JBR 88 69 77 54 / 60 40 90 30
TUP 94 69 86 58 / 20 20 60 80
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
708 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW 60S. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN OK...SWRN
MO...WRN AR...AND NERN TX. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE FAILED RATHER
MISERABLY IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THIS MCS IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME
HAVING IT DISPLACED MUCH TOO FAR NORTH. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE ALSO FIRED RECENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AR. MESOSCALE
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR HAVE PERFORMED MUCH BETTER AND WILL FOLLOW
THOSE FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY. THAT BEING SAID...THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA THIS
MORNING. ITS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AN UNCAPPED...MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN
AR...SWRN TN...NWRN MS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE THERE WITH DIMINISHING POPS TO THE EAST. LARGE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES RISE AGAIN
INTO THE LOW 90S MAY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING OVER OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY MORNING. ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WHICH WILL GROW INTO ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW
FAR EAST THIS MCS WILL TRACK OVERNIGHT...SOME INDICATIONS SUGGEST
IT MAY REACH EASTERN ARKANSAS LATE. THEREFORE...KEPT MODERATE CHC
POPS ACROSS THAT REGION.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY
AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD A WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR.
WHILE WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW AT LEAST EARLY...MODERATELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. THE
RISK OF SEVERE WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MAY SEE MESSY CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
EVENTUALLY FORM A SQUALL LINE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER
21Z-00Z WITH ATTENDANT WIND DAMAGE THREAT. LOW LEVEL FLOW/VEERING
DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT SO WILL REMOVE
THAT THREAT FROM THE HWO.
GFS STILL LAGS BACK WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH ALL OTHER LARGE
SCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DRYING THINGS OUT BY 12Z FRIDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING A REFRESHING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WAA RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE
AXIS A BIT WESTWARD WITH RECENT RUNS AND NOW KEEPS THE MIDSOUTH IN
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A PESKY WEAK FRONT REMAINING IN PLACE.
THUS...SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
SUNDAY AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK WARM...UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS FORMED ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR KJBR EARLY THIS MORNING AS STORMS
MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS PREVAILING.
LATEST HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION...DAYTIME HEATING...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE ADDED VCTS BACK INTO TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON AT KJBR AND KMEM. FURTHER EAST...THINK THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN KMKL AND KTUP TAF
FORECASTS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE AND RATHER LIGHT...MAINLY
DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE THIS EVENING AS THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS BACK AGAIN FOR LATE TONIGHT AT
KJBR...KMKL...AND KMEM. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 93 73 82 56 / 30 30 90 50
MKL 92 66 81 55 / 20 30 80 70
JBR 90 69 77 54 / 50 40 90 30
TUP 93 69 86 58 / 20 20 60 80
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
654 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.AVIATION...
GREATEST FLIGHT COMPLICATIONS WILL UNFOLD AT CDS DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS. INITIAL THREAT IS FOR MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT LOW CLOUDS THUS FAR
HAVE FAILED TO DEVELOP CLOSER THAN 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF CDS. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. NEXT CHALLENGE IS TSRA
POTENTIAL. MODELS AS A WHOLE HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON TSRA
OVERNIGHT EAST OF CDS OR THE REMNANT BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND...BUT
OVERALL PATTERN BY THIS AFTN IS SUPPORTIVE OF ISO-SCT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT NEAR A SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BE JUST
WEST OF CDS BY PEAK HEATING. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
FORECAST BY THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS...HAVE ISOLATED A CRUDE
2-HOUR WINDOW OF TSRAGR ON STATION AT CDS FROM 22Z-00Z TO DRAW
ATTN TO THIS ENHANCED THREAT. BY TONIGHT...STRATUS IS SHOWN TO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWING COLD FROPA.
ONLY THREAT TO LBB IS THE RESULT OF AN ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER THAT
IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG LIKELY
REDUCING VISBYS TO LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR LEVELS. EXPECT VISBYS TO
RECOVER MARKEDLY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD FROPA LATER TONIGHT
COULD STIR UP A FEW LOW CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO 31/12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE BOUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MUCH OF THIS POTENTIAL HINGES ON A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT HAS ALREADY ENTERED OUR FAR NERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF 15-25 MPH EASTERLY WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY IS COURTESY OF A
SERIES OF NOCTURNAL STORMS IN OKLAHOMA WHICH UNFORTUNATELY WERE NOT
HANDLED WELL AT ALL BY 00Z MODELS. GIVEN THIS OVERSIGHT BY THE
MODELS...THIS FORECAST IS THE RECIPIENT OF A RESPECTABLE DOSE OF
SOUTH PLAINS SVR WX CLIMATOLOGY AND PATTERN RECOGNITION.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN STALLING LATER THIS MORNING
ROUGHLY NEAR A SILVERTON TO GUTHRIE LINE AT WHICH TIME A WEAK
SURFACE LOW NEAR CLOVIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. MUCH OF THIS
EASTWARD PUSH WILL BE DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING IN VERY DRY AIR...BUT
SOME CONTRIBUTION CAN BE TRACED TO A NEARBY MINOR S/W TROF EMBEDDED
IN W-NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SHARPEN JUST OFF THE
CAPROCK BY MIDDAY AND INTERSECT THE OUTFLOW BDRY AND NEARBY SURFACE
LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE OR NRN ROLLING PLAINS. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NSSL-WRF AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING THE OUTFLOW BDRY IN PLACE BY MID-AFTN
WITH A TEXTBOOK DRYLINE BULGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
LUBBOCK. AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE AMPLE HEADWAY
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...BUT FAIL TO OVERWHELM DEEP MOISTURE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BDRY. ADD TO THIS A LFQ OF AN UPPER JET
MAXIMUM AND LIFT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR CI NEAR/SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. SUGGESTED EXTREME CAPE ALONE PER THE HRRR AND
NSSL-WRF WARRANT SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN
IS THE NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BDRY WHICH MAY INSPIRE ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HWO.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SETUP WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
AS THE S/W TROF PASSES THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTH FROM WRN KANSAS BEFORE OVERTAKING THE SOUTH PLAINS THU MRNG. A
PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LOCALLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
BACKGROUND ASCENT ON THE DECLINE BEHIND THE S/W TROF...FEEL POPS MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME BEING REALIZED UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN
THE NIGHT. FOR THIS REASON HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NRN TIER OF COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WHERE ELEVATED CAPE MAY BE PUT TO
WORK ONCE LL LIFT INTENSIFIES.
LONG TERM...
FLOW ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TO EVOLVE TO NW FLOW ON THURSDAY...THANKS
TO AN AMPLIFYING UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THREE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES THE FIRST OF WHICH
IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A MODERATELY STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WHILE THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE HIGH PLAINS WILL USHER IN A SECONDARY STRONGER
FRONTAL PUSH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE HINTS AT NORTHERLY
SFC WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH...WHICH IS NOT TOO SURPRISING GIVEN THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS INDUCED BY A 1018 MB SFC RIDGE NNE
OF THE REGION. WILL THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE COOLER TEMPS FOR
TOMORROW /MID 70S NW TO MID 80S SE/ AND A GRADUAL WARMUP THEREAFTER.
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DISPLAYED RATHER LIGHT QPF VALUES
NEARING THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WITH A
QUICK DIMINISHMENT LIKELY DUE TO THE DRYER AIR THAT WILL BE
TRANSPORTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE.
FURTHERMORE...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THUS LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
BE THE RULE /KEEPING POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE/. CONCURRENTLY...THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO BE A CUTOFF LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE SSE ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY...GIVING
LITTLE FANFARE FOR THE FA.
NW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH PLAINS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT...SFC WINDS VEERING TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT STORMS FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS QUITE BULLISH IN SHOWING THIS IN ADDITION TO
PRECIP NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE...COINCIDING WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AXIS. THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH MORE
PESSIMISTIC...WITH ONLY RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR STORMS TO DRIFT FROM HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND TOWARDS THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW
ALOFT...HOWEVER DESPITE THE BULLISH BEHAVIOR PORTRAYED FROM THE
GFS...IT AND NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE BEST PRECIP ACROSS
PANHANDLES. WILL OPT TO INCREASE POPS TO BETWEEN 10-14 PERCENT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...THUS BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS ATTM.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UA RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING. KEEPING
IN MIND THAT ON SATURDAY THE FLOW ALOFT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK NWLY FLOW...THE FIRST IMPULSE APPEAR TO SPARK STORMS ACROSS
THE SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EASTERN ZONES...AS THE TRANSPORT OF
GULF MOISTURE INDUCE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HENCE PROGGED
PWATS NEARING 1.70 INCHES...A WEAK CAP AND SLIGHT SYNOPTIC LIFT
CAN NOT BE IGNORED. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE SECOND IMPULSE
WILL CREATE THE RETURN OF THE SLOSHING DRYLINE...WHICH IS SHOWN TO
RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...AS FLOW ALOFT
EVOLVES TO SW FLOW DUE TO AN INCOMING PACIFIC UA LOW. THE CAP
APPEARS RELATIVELY STRONG AS THE GFS IS VOID OF PRECIP DESPITE A
LINGERING DRYLINE...VERSUS SIGNALS OF PRECIP ALONG THE DRYLINE EACH
EVENING PER THE ECMWF. WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS BEYOND SATURDAY
NIGHT ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 91 57 76 52 83 / 0 20 10 10 10
TULIA 94 59 77 53 83 / 10 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 98 60 78 54 83 / 0 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 98 62 81 55 85 / 0 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 99 63 81 55 85 / 0 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 98 61 83 56 86 / 0 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 99 63 82 56 85 / 0 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 97 65 83 57 83 / 30 30 10 10 10
SPUR 102 63 83 57 86 / 0 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 102 66 85 57 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/29/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
240 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...
THEN DEPART ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF LONG ISLAND THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO
APPROACH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR BETWEEN
0-6KM ALONG WITH MARGINAL SFC CAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS AND AROUND 700 TO 1000 J/KG FOR WESTERN
LOCATIONS. LAYER PW VALUES ARE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT WILL STILL
BE MOSTLY ABOVE 1 INCH.
WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING IN FROM LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CAROLINAS. DAYTIME HEATING HAS THEREBY BEEN
MITIGATED AND MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY A FEW DEGREES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FOR THE LONG ISLAND AREA EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO START OUT ISOLATED AND GROW
TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE TOWARDS EARLY EVENING FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR EASTERN AREAS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LEAVING SOME SPRINKLES WITH MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE HRRR SHOWS A SIMILAR
DEPICTION IN ITS REFLECTIVITY FIELDS. CONVECTION OVERALL WILL BE
LOW TOPPED FROM 20-30KFT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TOWARDS LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH MID
LEVEL DRYING AND HIGHER DCAPE VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT
WEAKENS WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FLATTENS OUT LEAVING MORE OF A WNW FLOW. WITHOUT INSTABILITY AND
WITHOUT MUCH SYNOPTIC FORCING...SHOWERS WILL LOWER IN COVERAGE BY
LATER THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MUCAPE DECREASES A LOT AFTER
00Z SO JUST LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DRYING CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY COME INTO PLACE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS DO NOT LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND IT AND
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LEFTOVER
MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AS TEMPS COOL BETTER WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS.
A MAV/MET/NAM 12 SFC TEMP BLEND WAS USED FOR LOWS WHICH MORE ON
THE WARMER SIDE GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...BERYL IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
PASSING WELL SE OF THE AREA ON THU. REFER TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
ONLY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM BERYL WILL BE MARINE RELATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE REMNANTS TROPICAL CYCLONE
BERYL PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE NORTHEAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR BERYL. WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES IN..EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BACK TO AN ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH
WILL AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FIELD AND IN TURN INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DESPITE 925MB
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
NOW FOR THE WEEKEND...SEEMS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THERE BEING GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PASSAGE ON SAT. THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRI...WITH
THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA OCCLUDING...THEN DRAGGING THE FRONT
THROUGH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE LATEST PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING IN CHC FOR THE WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...THEN
SPREADING LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT...THEN
DIMINISHING DOWN SAT NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT INJECTS IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS NOTED HOWEVER
SO HAVE SIDED WITH KEEPING JUST RAIN SHOWERS WITH NO MENTION OF
THUNDER...THOUGH ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW FINALLY PUSHES EAST INTO SE CANADA ON
SUN...BRINGING A VORT MAX RIGHT THROUGH THE REGION SUN AFTN.
THIS...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z
MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOUNDINGS HINTING AT CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW THEN PUSHES TO THE EAST AND
SETTLES OFFSHORE OF MAINE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS NO DEVELOPMENT YET DEEPENS
THE LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST MORE. WITH THE MODEL DISCREPANCY...SIDED
MOSTLY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MON INTO WED...KEEPING SLIGHT
CHC POPS AND THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTN HOURS UNDER THE
PERSISTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SAT AND SUN. HOWEVER...TEMPS
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS
FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
PASS THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON THU.
BKN-OVC MID LEVEL DECK MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS...AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS BY 20Z-22Z.
COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING CENTRAL NY STATE AND PA. EXPECT SCT
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND IMPACT
MAINLY KSWF IN TWO ROUNDS...ONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
THIS EVENING JUST BEFORE FROPA. UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH NYC METRO WILL
BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY...KEPT EARLIER MENTION OF BRIEF MVFR
FOR KEWR/KTEB AND BACKED OFF A LITTLE FOR KLGA/KJFK WITH MENTION
OF VCSH ONLY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR ISOLD TSTM JUST BEFORE
FROPA LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...BUT
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF.
KGON LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDS IN AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT BEFORE
FROPA. KISP ALSO LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CONDS...CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR.
S-SW FLOW 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD VEER MORE SW AND
LIGHTEN THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT N AFTER FROPA. SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT WITH OCNL GUSTS 15 KT POSSIBLE AT THE NYC METROS THU MORNING.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING...
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE STILL TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING...
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE STILL TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING...
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE STILL TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING...
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE STILL TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING...
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
04Z-07Z TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU AFTERNOON-FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WITH CHANCE OF
THUNDER AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ACROSS.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
CONDS IMPROVING FROM WEST-EAST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING...VFR.
.SUN...MOSTLY VFR. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWER OR TSTM.
.MON...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THU. WW3 APPEARS TO BE RUNNING
1-2 FT HIGH THROUGH THU AND HAVE ADJUSTED. NEITHER WNA OR NAH
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SWELLS FROM BERYL UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
RESPECTIVELY...BUT MAY SEE THEM AS EARLY AS THU NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO THIS WEEKEND. SEAS
HOWEVER...WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH A
COMBINATION OF A PERSISTENT FLOW AND SWELLS FROM THE PASSAGE OF
BERYL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS.
SEAS AND WINDS DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST NEAR 1.5 INCHES COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTION.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
638 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.AVIATION...AS REMNANTS OF BERYL MOV NE ALG THE SE U.S. COAST...A
RDG OF SFC HI PRES...XTNDG W FM THE SW N ATLC OVR THE LWR FLA
STRAITS AND N CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEX...SLOLY MOVS N AND OVR S
FLA AFT 31/12Z. AS THE RDG MOVS N...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVR THE
SW CARIB IS PULLED NORTHWARD. BUT...VFR XPCTD ALL TERMINALS THRU
31/18Z THOUGH SOME SHRA/PSBL ISOLD TSRA PSBL W COAST AND PSBLY
AFFECTING KAPF OVRNITE. XPCT INCRSD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY E COAST AFT
31/18Z AS WNDS ALOFT SW-W AND ACTIVITY WL MOV FM THE INTERIOR AND
THE E COAST DURG THE AFTN HRS. ATTM HAV ONLY VCTS IN E COAST TAFS
SEEING PSBLTY 18 HRS OUT. SFC WNDS BCMG SW AND LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL
TERMINALS THRU 18Z BUT E COAST SEA BRZE SE-SSE ARND 10 KTS TO DVLP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE AND
EAST COAST AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITIES LINE UP WELL
WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS BEFORE
TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT AND INDICATES THE
BEST COVERAGE REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS NORTH OF FORT
LAUDERDALE TO THE LAKE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE KEYS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS FROM EACH RUN. THIS INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE
RAINFALL CHANCES ELEVATED. MODEL PWAT VALUES REFLECT THIS PATTERN
AND INDICATE VALUES AROUND AND EVEN ABOVE THE TWO INCH MARK. AT THIS
TIME...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY TO 2 TO 4
INCHES SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED DURING THESE
EVENTS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BECOME A POSSIBILITY
WHERE THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY BECOMES CONCENTRATED. INTERESTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES THROUGH THIS TIME.
AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING UPPER HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY RISE. THIS COMBINED WITH MUCH DRIER
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
DAILY RAINFALL COVERAGE TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN EACH DAY.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL TRANSLATE TO CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST.
AVIATION...
DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST
OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND SHOULD STALL BETWEEN KMIA...KFLL...AND KTMB TAF SITES.
THIS MEANS THAT THE MOST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 20Z AND 21Z TODAY...EXCEPT FOR KFXE AND KTMB
WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST. THE SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING BACK TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS ALONG
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 5 T0 10 KNOTS EXCEPT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF
THE TAF SITES BEFORE GOING DRY TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR
KPBI WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SO
WILL SHOW VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 00Z TONIGHT...EXCEPT VCTS
FOR KPBI.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 87 73 83 / 20 30 30 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 88 74 84 / 20 40 30 60
MIAMI 74 89 74 85 / 20 50 30 60
NAPLES 74 89 74 83 / 10 40 30 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...15/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
229 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE AND
EAST COAST AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITIES LINE UP WELL
WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS BEFORE
TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT AND INDICATES THE
BEST COVERAGE REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS NORTH OF FORT
LAUDERDALE TO THE LAKE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE KEYS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS FROM EACH RUN. THIS INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE
RAINFALL CHANCES ELEVATED. MODEL PWAT VALUES REFLECT THIS PATTERN
AND INDICATE VALUES AROUND AND EVEN ABOVE THE TWO INCH MARK. AT THIS
TIME...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY TO 2 TO 4
INCHES SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED DURING THESE
EVENTS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BECOME A POSSIBILITY
WHERE THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY BECOMES CONCENTRATED. INTERESTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES THROUGH THIS TIME.
AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING UPPER HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY RISE. THIS COMBINED WITH MUCH DRIER
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
DAILY RAINFALL COVERAGE TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN EACH DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL TRANSLATE TO CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST
OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND SHOULD STALL BETWEEN KMIA...KFLL...AND KTMB TAF SITES.
THIS MEANS THAT THE MOST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 20Z AND 21Z TODAY...EXCEPT FOR KFXE AND KTMB
WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST. THE SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING BACK TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS ALONG
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 5 T0 10 KNOTS EXCEPT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF
THE TAF SITES BEFORE GOING DRY TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR
KPBI WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SO
WILL SHOW VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 00Z TONIGHT...EXCEPT VCTS
FOR KPBI.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 87 73 83 / 20 30 30 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 88 74 84 / 20 40 30 60
MIAMI 74 89 74 85 / 20 50 30 60
NAPLES 74 89 74 83 / 10 40 30 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
303 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM - THROUGH THURSDAY...
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST
INTO SD. ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEB DUE TO
THIS WAVE. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN KS. AT 19Z THE WARM FRONT WAS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE KS RIVER.
FOR TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HIGH
RES HRRR HAVE SUGGESTED THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP ON THE WARM FRONT AROUND 4 PM...THEN A LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING. WITH THE WARM SECTOR MOVING INTO
THE AREA...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NEAR 8 C/KM WITH ML CAPE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. SO THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. IF DISCRETE STORMS
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT...THERE
COULD BE A TORNADO THREAT INITIALLY. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL SHEER IS
RATHER MARGINAL SO THIS WOULD WORK AGAINST TORNADOS. IF THE LINE OF
STORMS IS ABLE TO FORM A STRONG COLD POOL...STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN AFTER DARK IN EASTERN KS. SO WITH THE
STRONG DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH...WILL INCREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO CATEGORICAL. EXPECT LOWS
TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREV FORECAST WITH AROUND 50 IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
BY THURSDAY...THINK THAT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE THERE IS STILL SOME PV ANOMALIES
MOVING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE ALONG THE MO RIVER.
ALTHOUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SHIFTED TO THE
EAST. SO THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIP LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST KS DURING
THE DAY. BUT WOULD EXPECT THAT TO BE MAINLY SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE
SOME INSOLATION THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND
WITH THE MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE COOL THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S AND AROUND 70 IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KS AND THE MID 60S NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHER.
WOLTERS
MID TERM - THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY WEATHER STORIES IN THE MID TERM. THE FIRST
SURROUNDS A CHILLY START TO FRIDAY MORNING. A COOL AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE OVERHEAD WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. EXPECT MOST CLOUD COVER TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A COOL AIRMASS
SHOULD LEAD TO MORNING LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S. ANY UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS COLD FORECAST WOULD REST WITH CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL AS ANY MID
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN A SHARP JUMP IN LOW
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS.
THE OTHER FOCUS DURING THE MID TERM IS ON RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. THE ADDITION OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND A VERY WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO COME LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR SATURDAY WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE
80S.
BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM - SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WHILE LONG WAVE RIDGING GRADUALLY INCREASES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TO BE IN A
BIT OF A PINCH POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH EPISODES OF ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS WARM ADVECTION ATTEMPTS TO SURGE NORTH OVER A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS KANSAS. THUS...IT
WILL BE A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AS WELL AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP APPEARS TO COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR DRY WEATHER APPEARS TO COME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COME BACK INTO THE
FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND MOISTURE PUSHES BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...LIKELY IN THE 90S AT TIMES...BUT WILL
ALSO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER. ANY SUNNY DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER 90S
WHILE LOW TEMPS MOST NIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02Z ALL SITES. DO EXPECT -TSRA TO
AFFECT TERMINALS 02Z TO 04Z MHK AND 03Z TO 05Z TOP/FOE AS COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS. EXPECT WIND SHIFT AFT 08Z MHK AND
09Z TOP/FOE. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 02Z TO 09Z BECOMING VFR AFT 09Z.
BYRNE
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
258 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
AS OF 17Z...AN AXIS OF 62-64F DEWPOINTS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG
AND WEST OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS OKLAHOMA
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON A SOUTHEAST WIND...ALLOWING
SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG ALONG THE MOISTURE
AXIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITHIN THE MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LOOK OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT THE WEATHER OFFICE CONFIRMED FAIRLY FLAT
LOOKING CUMULUS AS OF 1755 UTC. A WEAK BUT IMPORTANT SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED FROM JUST SOUTH OF RUSSELL, KS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR GOVE, KS. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WERE STILL HANGING IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS HAVE SHOWN A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION SIGNAL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...ROUGHLY
IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY KALVESTA-GOVE-NESS CITY-KALVESTA...BY 20 TO
21Z. THIS WOULD SEEM TO MATCH THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY
IS...ALTHOUGH IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. IT WOULD SEEM THE BEST AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE LATEST
HRRR RUNS HAVE IT...BUT EITHER WAY CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD
OCCUR BY NO LATER THAN 22Z NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 IN SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE EARLY STAGE OF
CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
CONTINUING TO INCREASE ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.
SUPERCELL STORM MOTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS
(NON SUPERCELL STORM MOTION BEING MORE EASTERLY). THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) PROBABILISTIC HAIL AND WIND ARE VERY HIGH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING ALL POINTS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 4 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE SPC PROBABILISTIC SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND AGREE ON JUST ABOUT ALL
ACCOUNTS. THE ONLY THING I QUESTION IS THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...AS
CONVECTIVE MODE AFTER A FEW HOURS MAY TRANSITION MORE TO A
QUASI-LINEAR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EPISODE (DAMAGING TO DESTRUCTIVE
WIND POTENTIAL 80+ MPH). THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA. IF THE
SUPERCELL PHASE CAN LAST SEVERAL HOURS THEN THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL DEFINITELY BE ENHANCED...AND FOR THAT REASON THE 10 PERCENT
TORNADO POTENTIAL (PROB OF A TORNADO WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT)
DOES LOOK JUSTIFIED FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LIBERAL TO
JETMORE TO LARNED LINE. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE MAIN AREA
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN SOME 20-50
POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE 06-09Z
TIME FRAME AS ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRIMARY ROUND. ANYTHING DEVELOPING AFTER THE PRIMARY ROUND WILL
HAVE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WAS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON
NORTHEAST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70S
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
PASSES TO THE EAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY IN THE 40S AS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AREAS,
THEN UPPER 40S WOULD BE MORE LIKELY THAN LOWER OR MID 40S. THERE IS
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT
MID-LEVEL CAPPING.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY,
WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MID-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WHICH WILL TEND TO SUPPORT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO KANSAS. GIVEN THAT MID-LEVEL CAPPING TENDS
TO BE WEAK IN THESE REGIMES, NOCTURNAL STORM CLUSTERS COULD DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT(AS ALREADY MENTIONED), BUT
MORE LIKELY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH
WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WHILE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST. THE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR
SOME LOWERING OF SURFACE PRESSURES AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS COULD REACH TO BETWEEN 95 AND 100F.
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OFF OF THE WEST COAST BY
MONDAY, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. MONDAY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY DRY WITH HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CLOSE BY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND THEREAFTER. THE ECMWF AND
GEM PROGRESS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AREA BY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS PROGRESSES THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND WESTERN CANADA. BUT ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS MAINTAIN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE AXIS
EACH DAY, POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK CAPPING.
ALSO, THE ECMWF HINTS AT A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PROGRESSING
FROM THE TROPICS INTO WESTERN KANSAS, AND THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION EVEN IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. DESPITE THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD BE HELD DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TUESDAY BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IF
THIS MOIST SCENARIO ACTUALLY PANS OUT. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL DUE TO THE WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE
FROM ROUGHLY 22Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. THE TAFS AT GCK AND HYS WILL
REFLECT VICINITY THUNDER BUT WILL GO WITH VICINITY THUNDER AND A
TEMPO PREVAILING THUNDER AT DDC AS THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACT AT DDC
APPEARS TO BE HIGHER BASED ON NUMEROUS HIGH RESOLUTION SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY RUNS AND OBSERVATIONS OF TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/WIND AT
THE SURFACE FITTING THE SHORT-TERM MODEL RUNS. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN COMPLEX OF SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN 2000-3000 FOOT STRATUS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS (HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 72 47 83 / 80 10 10 20
GCK 52 72 47 84 / 60 10 10 20
EHA 54 76 50 89 / 30 10 10 10
LBL 53 75 49 87 / 50 10 10 10
HYS 52 69 46 78 / 70 10 20 20
P28 59 72 48 78 / 90 10 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
204 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.UPDATE...
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE CAP WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. SHEAR/CAPE PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAINTAINED VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA WITH VCTS
MENTIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD MORNING. ALTHOUGH WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MVFR CIGS MAY
BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS OK HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO FIND THE
WARM FRONT WITH BEST GUESS IS THAT IT IS IN BETWEEN THE OK-KS BORDER
AND KOKC. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH TODAY ALONG
WITH THE WARM FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
GOING WITH THE THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST-CENTRAL
KS BY AROUND 20Z AS THE BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER
WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER CENTRAL KS AFTER 06Z WHICH WILL
FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND ALSO PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS.
LAWSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY &
TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...AND A WARMING TREND
WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR TODAY-TONIGHT...AS THEY
HAVE GREATLY STRUGGLED WITH PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROGS THE PAST FEW DAYS. AM TENDING TO SIDE
WITH A 06Z NAM...RUC...HRRR AND NSSL WRF BLEND...WHICH HOLDS OFF
MOST PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS MAKES THE MOST SENSE GIVEN
BRUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SHUNTED SOUTH DUE TO WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SCOURING OUT AIRMASS OVER OK. HOWEVER...DID
HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
HIT-AND-MISS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG STALLED
850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW-SE ACROSS KS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THINKING STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...INTERACTING
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG NORTHERN FRINGE OF STOUT 700MB TEMPERATURES.
THINKING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN INCREASINGLY MODEST/STRONG INSTABILITY (POSSIBLY MAINLY
ELEVATED) AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...THINK THE "HIGHER
END" SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO TX/OK WHERE BEST SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DRYLINE
INTERSECTIONS. THEREFORE...WILL REMOVE "CATEGORY 4" FROM HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. AFTER THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT. THE SEVERITY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
TEMPERED THOUGH DUE TO PREVIOUS ACTIVITY ACTING TO STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THU-FRI IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...ALONG WITH STOUT NORTH WINDS THU. FOR FRIDAY...SUBTLE
MID/UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...AS 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH NOW HINTING AT THIS. ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE
WEATHER.
PER MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS...A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. ADDITIONALLY...HIT-AND-MISS CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND
GIVEN VARIOUS MODEL PROGS OF SUBTLE MID-UPPER ENERGY AND
MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW
REGARDING DETAILS OF TIMING/COVERAGE. ALL-IN-ALL IT APPEARS THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
KLEINSASSER
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN HAZARD: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF TS AT HUT...ICT...AND CNU FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CURRENT SCATTERED TS ACROSS AREA. ACTIVITY SEEMS
TO BE OCCURRING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEAR AND NORTH OF WARM
FRONT. HRRR HAS THIS CONVECTION PUSHING EAST OUT OF AREA AROUND
09-10Z. MODEL SIGNALS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING AN MCS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KS...THEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS INTO WED PM. THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK BEHIND THIS MCS.
THEN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE COLD FRONT AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 59 71 49 72 / 70 10 10 20
HUTCHINSON 56 70 48 73 / 70 10 10 20
NEWTON 56 69 48 72 / 70 10 10 20
ELDORADO 58 70 48 71 / 70 10 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 61 72 50 72 / 70 10 10 20
RUSSELL 52 69 47 74 / 70 10 10 20
GREAT BEND 53 70 47 74 / 70 10 10 20
SALINA 55 69 47 73 / 70 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 55 69 47 73 / 70 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 64 72 50 69 / 70 30 10 20
CHANUTE 61 70 48 69 / 70 30 10 20
IOLA 61 70 48 68 / 70 30 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 63 71 50 69 / 70 30 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
122 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
AS OF 17Z...AN AXIS OF 62-64F DEWPOINTS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG
AND WEST OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS OKLAHOMA
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON A SOUTHEAST WIND...ALLOWING
SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG ALONG THE MOISTURE
AXIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITHIN THE MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LOOK OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT THE WEATHER OFFICE CONFIRMED FAIRLY FLAT
LOOKING CUMULUS AS OF 1755 UTC. A WEAK BUT IMPORTANT SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED FROM JUST SOUTH OF RUSSELL, KS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR GOVE, KS. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WERE STILL HANGING IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEST KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS HAVE SHOWN A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION SIGNAL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...ROUGHLY
IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY KALVESTA-GOVE-NESS CITY-KALVESTA...BY 20 TO
21Z. THIS WOULD SEEM TO MATCH THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY
IS...ALTHOUGH IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. IT WOULD SEEM THE BEST AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE LATEST
HRRR RUNS HAVE IT...BUT EITHER WAY CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD
OCCUR BY NO LATER THAN 22Z NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 IN SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE EARLY STAGE OF
CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
CONTINUING TO INCREASE ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.
SUPERCELL STORM MOTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS
(NON SUPERCELL STORM MOTION BEING MORE EASTERLY). THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) PROBABILISTIC HAIL AND WIND ARE VERY HIGH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING ALL POINTS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 4 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE SPC PROBABILISTIC SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND AGREE ON JUST ABOUT ALL
ACCOUNTS. THE ONLY THING I QUESTION IS THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...AS
CONVECTIVE MODE AFTER A FEW HOURS MAY TRANSITION MORE TO A
QUASI-LINEAR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EPISODE (DAMAGING TO DESTRUCTIVE
WIND POTENTIAL 80+ MPH). THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA. IF THE
SUPERCELL PHASE CAN LAST SEVERAL HOURS THEN THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL DEFINITELY BE ENHANCED...AND FOR THAT REASON THE 10 PERCENT
TORNADO POTENTIAL (PROB OF A TORNADO WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT)
DOES LOOK JUSTIFIED FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LIBERAL TO
JETMORE TO LARNED LINE. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE MAIN AREA
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN SOME 20-50
POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE 06-09Z
TIME FRAME AS ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRIMARY ROUND. ANYTHING DEVELOPING AFTER THE PRIMARY ROUND WILL
HAVE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WAS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON
NORTHEAST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70S
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
BY FRIDAY, THE CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A VERY BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
ORIENTED UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ABOUT A 1015-1017 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL DROP FROM THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
REPRESENTS A SOMEWHAT COOL NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN FOR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS DOES PAINT LIGHT QPF WHICH REALLY JUST
REPRESENTS THE MODEL ATTEMPTING TO TURN OVER INSTABILITY, IN THE
WESTERN POSITIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS
MORE PROBABLE NO THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE SUBSIDENT THERMALLY INDIRECT CONVERGENT RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE INCOMING JET SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
RAPIDLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT A STOUT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. DURING THE
TIMEFRAME FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS PRODUCE A SWATH OF QPF SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DEFORMATION IN THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD AND SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, BY CONTRAST, THE NAM MODEL SEEMS TO INDICATE CONVECTION
DEVELOPED DIURNALLY ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS/ MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY LATE IN THE DAY. ISOLATED STORMS SEEM ALL THAT MIGHT
BE EXPECTED. WITH THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS, THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXPECTED MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR LATE FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING THICKNESSES. ECMWF/GFS ELUDE TO THE AREA FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA AS BEING POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE IN A ZONE OF HIGHER THETA-E. LESSER CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO ANY STORM CHANCES BEYOND THIS POINT. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
TAKE ON A FLAT RIDGE PATTERN INTO SUNDAY WITH A NOISY SIGNAL OF
EMBEDDED COMPACT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90S DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT STILL
INDICATE AROUND A 10 DEGREE SPREAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE
FROM ROUGHLY 22Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. THE TAFS AT GCK AND HYS WILL
REFLECT VICINITY THUNDER BUT WILL GO WITH VICINITY THUNDER AND A
TEMPO PREVAILING THUNDER AT DDC AS THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACT AT DDC
APPEARS TO BE HIGHER BASED ON NUMEROUS HIGH RESOLUTION SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY RUNS AND OBSERVATIONS OF TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/WIND AT
THE SURFACE FITTING THE SHORT-TERM MODEL RUNS. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN COMPLEX OF SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN 2000-3000 FOOT STRATUS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS (HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 72 47 83 / 80 10 0 10
GCK 52 72 47 84 / 60 10 0 20
EHA 54 76 50 89 / 30 10 0 20
LBL 53 75 49 87 / 50 10 0 20
HYS 52 69 46 78 / 70 10 10 20
P28 59 72 48 78 / 90 10 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1237 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
FOR THE NEAR TERM, BASED ON THE THE NAM, RUC AND HRRR SHORTER TERM MODELS,
I LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY PRIOR TO 18Z TODAY, AND LOWERED QPF AS
WELL. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
AND LESS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP, AND THIS WAVE WILL COME
DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY. WITH THAT SAID, THERE
APPEARS ONLY TO BE SLIGHT OVER RUNNING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
JUST SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. SO CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THIS MORNING IN
THE STRATOCU LEVEL, BUT THE INSTABILITY DOES NOT SEEM STRONG
ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION. THE FRONT DOWN IN OKLAHOMA WILL NUDGE
NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE OVER RUNNING OF THE 850MB FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WILL COLLIDE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TRAVELING SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SET UP A 1500-1600
CAPE SITUATION ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA, AND THE SURFACE HEATING BY
THEN WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY 60
PERCENT POPS GOING AFTER 21Z IN OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES,
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LARNED TO MEADE. IN THE ZONE WORDING, I
WILL HAVE POSSIBLE SEVERE WORDING WITH THE MENTION OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. QPF IS TRICKY, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WOULD PLACE UP TO 1.22 PW IN THE GREENSBURG TO
MEDICINE LODGE AREAS. DO NOT EXPECT THAT AMOUNT IN A BASIN-WIDE
AVERAGE, SO WENT WITH 0.41 INCH INSTEAD. BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES
UP JUST A FEW DEGREES TODAY, THINKING THE DELAYED PRECIPITATION
WILL GIVE THE LIMITED SUN MORE TIME TO WARM THE SURFACE UP.
TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR GENERAL STORMS TO OCCUR IN THE
WRAP AROUND SECTION OF THE UPPER WAVE. DO NOT EXPECT TONIGHT`S
STORMS TO BE SEVERE, BUT MORE OF A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM NATURE.
ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHEN POPS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY, BUT RANGE TO THE UPPER 50S
DOWN IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH EARLY TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY
AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
BY FRIDAY, THE CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A VERY BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
ORIENTED UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ABOUT A 1015-1017 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL DROP FROM THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
REPRESENTS A SOMEWHAT COOL NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN FOR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS DOES PAINT LIGHT QPF WHICH REALLY JUST
REPRESENTS THE MODEL ATTEMPTING TO TURN OVER INSTABILITY, IN THE
WESTERN POSITIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS
MORE PROBABLE NO THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE SUBSIDENT THERMALLY INDIRECT CONVERGENT RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE INCOMING JET SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
RAPIDLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT A STOUT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. DURING THE
TIMEFRAME FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS PRODUCE A SWATH OF QPF SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DEFORMATION IN THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD AND SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, BY CONTRAST, THE NAM MODEL SEEMS TO INDICATE CONVECTION
DEVELOPED DIURNALLY ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS/ MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY LATE IN THE DAY. ISOLATED STORMS SEEM ALL THAT MIGHT
BE EXPECTED. WITH THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS, THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXPECTED MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR LATE FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING THICKNESSES. ECMWF/GFS ELUDE TO THE AREA FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA AS BEING POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE IN A ZONE OF HIGHER THETA-E. LESSER CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO ANY STORM CHANCES BEYOND THIS POINT. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
TAKE ON A FLAT RIDGE PATTERN INTO SUNDAY WITH A NOISY SIGNAL OF
EMBEDDED COMPACT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90S DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT STILL
INDICATE AROUND A 10 DEGREE SPREAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE
FROM ROUGHLY 22Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. THE TAFS AT GCK AND HYS WILL
REFLECT VICINITY THUNDER BUT WILL GO WITH VICINITY THUNDER AND A
TEMPO PREVAILING THUNDER AT DDC AS THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACT AT DDC
APPEARS TO BE HIGHER BASED ON NUMEROUS HIGH RESOLUTION SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY RUNS AND OBSERVATIONS OF TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/WIND AT
THE SURFACE FITTING THE SHORT-TERM MODEL RUNS. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN COMPLEX OF SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN 2000-3000 FOOT STRATUS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS (HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 54 72 47 / 60 70 10 0
GCK 85 52 72 47 / 50 50 10 0
EHA 85 54 76 50 / 30 40 10 0
LBL 88 53 75 49 / 40 50 10 0
HYS 79 52 69 46 / 70 70 10 10
P28 88 59 72 48 / 80 70 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND BOOSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATION TRENDS.
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A 300MB 100KT JET AXIS PUSHING
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. AT
THE SURFACE, A 1000MB LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND INTO OHIO.
THE FRONT IS MOST INDICATIVE BY ITS WIND SHIFT AND TD GRADIENT.
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE IN A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW TODAY
AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY AND DIURNAL MIXING
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS. HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN A MAV/MET BLEND, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN RIDGES TO THE LOWER 80S IN PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL WV AND EASTERN OHIO.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH A DRIER AIR MASS
SETTLED IN ACROSS THE REGION, 5-10 DEGREES TD DEPRESSIONS WILL
INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MAJORITY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER, CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON THURSDAY. THE COOLER NAM IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN
OUTLIER FOR HIGH TEMPS, WITH GFS/ECMWF INDICATING 850 TEMPS AT
7-10C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS, IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
A CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED LOW
WILL PIVOT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT A SURFACE LOW
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. 700MB OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BRING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN
INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY AND INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH GFS/NAM INDICATING A WEDGE
OF MODERATE SBCAPE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY 18Z FRIDAY SUPPORT THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER. TOTAL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A HALF OF AN
INCH TO AN INCH FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN-COOLED AIR
AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS
THE AREA DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY IN
THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A ECMWF/GFSE BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LOOK FOR THE MERCURY TO STAY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON
SATURDAY AS H500 LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...A FULL LATITUDE TROF REMAINS FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE FORECAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY AND MODERATE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER H500 LOW APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS ACROSS REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW
EXITS AREA.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1156 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES MOVING OUT OF THE SERN
CWA THIS MORNING.
KANOFSKY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MO HAVE DEVELOPED IN AXIS OF
DECENT 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A WEAK VORT MAX NOW
ENTERING NORTHWEST MISSOURI. RUC SHOWS THESE FEATURES MOVING EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND GOING FORECAST WHICH BRINGS SCT SHRA/TSRA
EASTWARD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO EARLY THROUGH 12-15Z STILL LOOKS
GOOD. THEREAFTER...AREA WILL LIE UNDER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WEAK
VORT MAX THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN THE MOST UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY.
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AS TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TRANSPORTING 1.5 INCHES PWATS AND INDUCING
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE UNDER INCREASING LARGE
SCALE MID LEVEL ASCENT. HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
USED MOS TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
SEEM REASONABLE.
BRITT
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
MODELS ARE NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING EWD
THROUGH OUR AREA THU AND THU NGT. THE FOCUS OF MOST OF THE
CONVECTION THU MRNG MAY BE ACROSS NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL WHERE
850 MB WAA...THETA E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ON THE NOSE OF A S-SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING 850 MB LOW. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON THU
WHILE A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE
NEWD THROUGH SERN MO AND SRN IL. THERE IS SOME VARIATION WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WITH THE ECMWF MODEL THE FURTHER MOST S
AND THE GFS THE FURTHER MOST N. EVEN THE MOST NRN TRACK HAS THE
SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH OR JUST S OF STL. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL LEFT OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THU WILL BE COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE AND BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CAA BEGINNING THU AFTN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE ALREADY THU NGT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NEWD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z FRI WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN IL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THU NGT WITH THE MODELS
DROPPING THE 4 DEGREE C 850 MB ISOTHERM SWD THROUGH MUCH OF OUR
AREA BY 12Z FRI. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY RAIN MAINLY ACROSS
W CNTRL IL ON FRI...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE E-NE
OF OUR AREA ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS E-SEWD INTO SRN MO. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON FRI AND FRI NGT. A WEAK NW
FLOW SHORTWAVE MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NERN AND
CNTRL MO AS WELL AS W CNTRL IL LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MRNG. THE NAM
MODEL ALSO DEPICTS LOW-MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO THE ERN US. THE
ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS MORE PRECIPITATION SUN NGT AND MON AS ANOTHER
NW FLOW SHORTWAVE DROPS SEWD THROUGH OUR AREA. THE GFS MODEL ALSO
HAS CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA LATE SUN NGT THROUGH TUE BUT IS
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK PROBLEMS CAUSING THE
SHORTWAVE TO AMPLIFY TOO MUCH AND LEADING TO TOO MUCH QPF. FOR
THIS REASON WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
OVER THE GFS MODEL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO OUR
AREA MON AND TUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST
OF THE EVENING BEFORE A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF. SHRA/TSRA
CHCS INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH PCPN SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS DUE TO
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE EVENING BEFORE A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE BEST PCPN CHCS AT METRO AREA TAF SITES AFTER APPROXIMATELY
09Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
IN CIGS EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
316 PM MDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE THUNDER ARE
AROUND THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECLINE AFTER
DARK AS UPPER FORCING IS LIMITED. HRRR HAS ACTIVITY ON DECLINE
AFTER 3Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AIDED BY A VERY WEAK UPPER WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE BECOMES
UNIDENTIFIABLE IN THE MODELS AFTER 3Z.
MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO DOMINATE...AND SHOWERS ON THE DECLINE...LATER ON
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM PATTERN OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
SURFACE LOW FORMATION AND SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH LOWS NEAR 50 AND HIGHS
INTO THE 70S. MARTIN
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER AROUND SATURDAY EVENING A PAC-NW UPPER
TROUGH SENDS MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS APPEAR STRONG FOR THE CENTRAL REGIONS TO OUR
WEST. BUT WEAKER PARAMETERS COULD SUPPORT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSSIBLY SUSTAIN ANY STRONG STORMS FOR A WHILE THAT MOVE INTO
OUR AREA. TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EC WILL MAINLY
AFFECT WHEN THE FRONT MEETS THE PEAK AREAS OF INSTABILITY. SO WX
TYPE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
MODELS IN GENERAL DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT THERE IS LIMITED
AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY THAT WILL AFFECT MONTANA AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST MONTANA
WITH SHOWERS.
BY TUESDAY THE EC AND GFS ARE TOTALLY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE TROUGH
MOVEMENT OVER THE WEST. THE PATTERN LOOKS WET IN GENERAL SO WILL
LEAVE POPS MOSTLY ALONE FOR NOW. THE WAVES ARE SO FAR OUT OF PHASE
AS TO PREVENT BLENDING. HPC THINKS THE EC HAS THE STRONGEST
SOLUTION BUT IS TOO WARM...AND THE GFS IS THE FASTEST. TAKING
SOMETHING OF A BLEND IT LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOL AND WET.
THE LAST BIG STORM WAS NAILED BY THE EC AND IT IS TEMPTING TO
LEAN ON IT AGAIN. A NOTE LATE IN THE SHIFT FROM THE CPC SAYS
CONFIDENCE IN THE EC FOR THAT PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE. BUT
WAITING FOR MORE AGREEMENT IS THE WAY TO GO FOR NOW.
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE A FEW GRID EDITS FOR POPS WERE MADE
TO DAY 3 NIGHT AND DAY 4...BUT LIMITED CHANGES ELSEWHERE. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY-WELL
ESTABLISHED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SPINE OF THE THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...ONLY 24 HOURS LATER...THE GFS AND THE EC MODELS
BEGIN TO FALL OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND NEVER COME CLOSE
TO ANY KIND OF A CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. CONSEQUENTLY...CONFIDENCE IN
THE ACCURACY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS SHAKY FOR SUNDAY AND GETS
ONLY WORSE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE VERY GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN TRENDS I THINK WILL GO AS
FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING AND DEEPENING WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. EXACTLY HOW THIS TROUGH EVOLVES IS HANDLED COMPLETELY
DIFFERENTLY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU TRUST. THE EC DIG THE
TROUGH INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW AS FAR SOUTH AS DEATH VALLEY
CALIFORNIA BE EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS MESSES AROUND WITH A
SIMPLE OPEN WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH
DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY. BEYOND THEN...ANY SEMBLANCE OF MODEL
CONSENSUS IS GONE. OVERALL THE GFS IS THE VERY WET MODEL AND THE
EC IS THE VERY DRY MODEL. LOWEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE I HAVE HAD IN
QUITE SOME TIME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BMICKELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
UNSTABLE AIR...BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING...HAS SPAWNED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING BUT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE OVER THE STATIONARY COLD BOUNDARY ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...GENERALLY SHIFTING
EAST. THE SHIFTING OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE WINDS OF
AROUND 10KT TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. SCT
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO MAIN STEM
RIVERS. BEAVER CREEK NEAR HINSDALE AND THE FRENCHMAN CREEK NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER HAVE RECORDED STREAM CRESTS. THE POPLAR
RIVER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER HAS RISEN TO ACTION
STAGE...BUT APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED.
THE LATEST MILK RIVER FORECASTS KEEP ALL POINTS BELOW ACTION
STAGE. THE MILK RIVER AT GLASGOW IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 18.0 FT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NASHUA SHOULD CREST AT 11.3 FT LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TAMPICO CRESTED AT 15.7 FT AROUND NOON AND IS
NOW FALLING. AREA CREEKS AND SMALLER TRIBUTARIES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE GENERAL 1.3 TO 2.7 INCHES OF
RECENT RAINFALL DRAINS THROUGH THE BASINS. SCT
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
146 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES QUASI-ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CONUS...WITH SUBTLE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY IS POSITIONED FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND ON
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED VALUES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
INFILTRATING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
OUTFLOW AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER IS PROMOTING A BIT MORE CHAOTIC
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR CWA...THAN THAT OF THE TRUE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WHICH ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. KUEX INDICATES
CONVECTION PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW IS HELPING PROMOTE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION OVER OUR
CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES. LAPS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA SUGGEST AIR
PARCELS...ASCENDING FROM AROUND 700MB...ARE CONTENDING WITH LESS
THAN 30J/KG CIN AND 600-1000J/KG CAPE. IN ADDITION...MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY IS ALSO HELPING PROMOTE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40KTS. EVEN THOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THE COOL LOW TO MID LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE MORE THAN COMPENSATING...WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF QUARTER-SIZE HAIL ALREADY REPORTED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. BROAD-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ALSO LIKELY PERSISTING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A RESULT.
WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE AFTERNOON FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
COULD VARY MORE THAN WHAT THE TAF MAY INDICATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...HELPING TO BREAK DOWN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST
COAST. A SECONDARY RIDGE AXIS HAS PUSHED ON THE WEST COAST...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. A FEW
SCATTERED RETURNS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY NOT HITTING THE
GROUND AT THE CURRENT TIME.
THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
THE WAVE MOVES CLOSER ESPECIALLY BEFORE THE 18Z TIME FRAME. THE SREF
AND GFS BOTH EXPECT POPS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE THE NAM...EC AND 4 KM WRF KEEP
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE HRRR REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH VERY LITTLE POPS GENERATED AT ALL.
REGRETTABLY...FILLING IN OF THE POPS ALONG THE TROUGH THIS MORNING
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
REGARDING POPS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE OPEN WAVE PUSHES CLOSER TO
THE PLAINS...EXPECTING MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE LOW...HOWEVER
THE GFS DOES ADVERTISE NEARLY 1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE SKIRTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHER AXIS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. GIVEN THIS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE MENTION
OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. BULK
SHEAR VECTORS FROM 0 TO 6 KM ALSO ARE INDICATIVE OF SEVERE CHANCES
WITH NEARLY 35 TO 50 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE FAR
NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN THUNDERSTORM FREE WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...THE SREF...NAM...GFS...AND
ECMWF ALL SUGGEST CONTINUED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE OVEN WAVE
PUSHES PAST THE REGION. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DECREASE DRASTICALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...THUS EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...COMPLETELY
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE COULD GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS INDICATES NEAR 1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
NOSING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
QUICKLY DECREASING AGAIN WITH NIGHTFALL. THUS ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO BE QUITE TRICKY DEPENDING BOTH ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. WENT WITH LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR TODAY...WHILE
EXPECT MUCH OF AREA ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A BIT ON FRIDAY...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
MIXING DURING THE DAY TO NEARLY 800 MB. GIVEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER...STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A NOTABLE WARMING TREND. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTING IN HOT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A WEAK 500MB VORT MAX
TRACKING BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA LEADING TO A LOW
END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. OUR
MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY
BUT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK VORT MAX TRYING TO PRESS UP
ON THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL CARRY THE POPS ON TUESDAY...BUT LOWERED
THEM BY 20 PERCENT BELOW CONSALL MODEL BLEND DUE TO DOUBTS ABOUT
VERY MANY THUNDERSTORMS BEING ABLE TO FORM UNDER A RATHER DOMINATING
UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRYANT
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...SATLZMAN
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1251 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
COULD VARY MORE THAN WHAT THE TAF MAY INDICATE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...HELPING TO BREAK DOWN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST
COAST. A SECONDARY RIDGE AXIS HAS PUSHED ON THE WEST COAST...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. A FEW
SCATTERED RETURNS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY NOT HITTING THE
GROUND AT THE CURRENT TIME.
THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
THE WAVE MOVES CLOSER ESPECIALLY BEFORE THE 18Z TIME FRAME. THE SREF
AND GFS BOTH EXPECT POPS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE THE NAM...EC AND 4 KM WRF KEEP
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE HRRR REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH VERY LITTLE POPS GENERATED AT ALL.
REGRETTABLY...FILLING IN OF THE POPS ALONG THE TROUGH THIS MORNING
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
REGARDING POPS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE OPEN WAVE PUSHES CLOSER TO
THE PLAINS...EXPECTING MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE LOW...HOWEVER
THE GFS DOES ADVERTISE NEARLY 1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE SKIRTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHER AXIS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. GIVEN THIS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE MENTION
OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. BULK
SHEAR VECTORS FROM 0 TO 6 KM ALSO ARE INDICATIVE OF SEVERE CHANCES
WITH NEARLY 35 TO 50 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE FAR
NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN THUNDERSTORM FREE WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...THE SREF...NAM...GFS...AND
ECMWF ALL SUGGEST CONTINUED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE OVEN WAVE
PUSHES PAST THE REGION. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DECREASE DRASTICALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...THUS EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...COMPLETELY
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE COULD GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS INDICATES NEAR 1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
NOSING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
QUICKLY DECREASING AGAIN WITH NIGHTFALL. THUS ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO BE QUITE TRICKY DEPENDING BOTH ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. WENT WITH LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR TODAY...WHILE
EXPECT MUCH OF AREA ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A BIT ON FRIDAY...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
MIXING DURING THE DAY TO NEARLY 800 MB. GIVEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER...STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A NOTABLE WARMING TREND. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTING IN HOT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A WEAK 500MB VORT MAX
TRACKING BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA LEADING TO A LOW
END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. OUR
MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY
BUT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK VORT MAX TRYING TO PRESS UP
ON THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL CARRY THE POPS ON TUESDAY...BUT LOWERED
THEM BY 20 PERCENT BELOW CONSALL MODEL BLEND DUE TO DOUBTS ABOUT
VERY MANY THUNDERSTORMS BEING ABLE TO FORM UNDER A RATHER DOMINATING
UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED THE REGION...IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMY COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK...INTO NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. DRY WEATHER AND EVEN COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A WETTER PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH A SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED...SECONDARY FRONT HAS NOT HAD ANY PROBLEM DEVELOPING
SOME CONVECTION...ALBEIT OF LIMITED COVERAGE. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER IS ABSENT...BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG SECONDARY FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING HAS BEEN
ENOUGH TO YIELD CONVECTION.
LATEST NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW SEVERAL HUNDRED CAPE...AND
ADEQUATE PRECIPITABLE WATER /ROUGHLY AN INCH/ FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS FAVOR THE INSTABILITY OF NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS...AND ABILITY
TO BREAK CAP...VERSUS GFS SOUNDINGS. COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FROM THE
SEVERE ENVIRONMENT OF YESTERDAY...BUT ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR AND
SOME SPEED SHEAR...COULD YIELD SOME GUSTINESS IN THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER. TIMING OF THINGS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERN ZONES
DRY...YET BETTER COVERAGE THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA LINE.
DIURNALLY DEPENDENT CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...LEAVING US A DRY AND COOLER NIGHT WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDS...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD SETS UP TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AS WE ARE
IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD LAKE ERIE.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE
LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE DISCREPANCY CONCERNING THE EASTWARD
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
GFS AND EURO KEEP A STRONGER PRESENCE OF AN EXITING ANTICYCLONE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NY. NAM IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE HIGH, AND HAS
THIS FEATURE PLACED FURTHER EASTWARD.
NAM APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. GFS MAY BE UNREALISTICALLY KEEPING THINGS
TOO FAR WEST. EURO LOOKS LIKE A REALISTIC COMPROMISE. WE HAVE
PULLED BACK ON THE EASTERN FA GUIDANCE POPS TO REFLECT GREATER
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FCST TODAY WITH THE BIG UPR LOW AS THE LONG
RANGE MODELS COME INTO REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PSN OF
THE LOW...AND TIMING OF WVS ROTATING THRU. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
LIFTS NWRD TO A PSN NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY EARLY SUN. THIS KEEPS
THE CORE OF DEEP MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT DOES KEEP US IN A
NW FLOW OF COOL AIR. H8 TEMPS HOVER ARND 8C AS WV/S DROP THRU IN
THE NW FLOW. SHWRS WILL BE PSBL NEARLY ANYTIME...BUT WILL PEAK
DURING AFTN HTG...AND WITH THE LRGR WVS. INDIVIDUAL WV/S DFCLT TO
TIME...BUT WV/S LOOK TO PASS LTR SUN...EARLY MON...AND ESP ON TUE
AS THE UPR LOW BEGINS TO MVE SOUTH AND EAST AND THE COOL POOL
ALOFT MVES CLSR.
GNRLY FLWD HPC GUID FOR THE FCST...WHICH WAS CLOSE TO MEX POPS AND
TEMPS LEADING TO A HIER CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMBERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC TROF PASSING THRU THE FCST AREA ATTM WITH WEAK CONV FIRING
AHD. PSN OF THE TROF WILL PUT MOST OR ALL OF THE CONV EAST OF THE
TAF SITES...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE FCST. DRIER AIR
MVG IN BHD THE TROF WILL KEEP THE AREA IN VFR THRU THE TAF PD.
XCPTN MAY BE AT ELM WHERE THE DEEP VLY MAY ALLOW SOME POOLONG OF
COOL AND DAMP AIR ALLOWING FOR SOME MVFR LATE. ANY FOG WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH GOOD MIXING AND MORE DRY AIR ON THU.
.OUTLOOK...
THU AFTN TO FRI MRNG...MAINLY VFR. WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT FOG NOT
EXPECTED.
FRI AFT TO SAT MRNG...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
SAT AFTN THRU MON...VFR...WITH MVFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
132 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED THE REGION...IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMY COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK...INTO NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. DRY WEATHER AND EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A WETTER PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH A
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED...SECONDARY FRONT HAS NOT HAD ANY PROBLEM DEVELOPING
SOME CONVECTION...ALBEIT OF LIMITED COVERAGE. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER IS ABSENT...BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG SECONDARY FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING HAS BEEN
ENOUGH TO YIELD CONVECTION.
LATEST NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW SEVERAL HUNDRED CAPE...AND
ADEQUATE PRECIPITABLE WATER /ROUGHLY AN INCH/ FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS FAVOR THE INSTABILITY OF NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS...AND ABILITY
TO BREAK CAP...VERSUS GFS SOUNDINGS. COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FROM THE
SEVERE ENVIRONMENT OF YESTERDAY...BUT ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR AND
SOME SPEED SHEAR...COULD YIELD SOME GUSTINESS IN THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER. TIMING OF THINGS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERN ZONES
DRY...YET BETTER COVERAGE THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA LINE.
DIURNALLY DEPENDENT CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...LEAVING US A DRY AND COOLER NIGHT WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDS...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD SETS UP TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AS WE ARE
IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD LAKE ERIE.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE
LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE DISCREPANCY CONCERNING THE EASTWARD
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
GFS AND EURO KEEP A STRONGER PRESENCE OF AN EXITING ANTICYCLONE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NY. NAM IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE HIGH, AND HAS
THIS FEATURE PLACED FURTHER EASTWARD.
NAM APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. GFS MAY BE UNREALISTICALLY KEEPING THINGS
TOO FAR WEST. EURO LOOKS LIKE A REALISTIC COMPROMISE. WE HAVE
PULLED BACK ON THE EASTERN FA GUIDANCE POPS TO REFLECT GREATER
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN
THE PERIOD BUT REMAINS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND STARTING MONDAY.
STEADY SOAKING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
THAN NORMAL. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL NOW THIS AIR WILL
FEEL COLD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
XTNDD PD FEATURES A LRG UPR LOW BRINGING UNSETTLED WX TO THE FCST
AREA. SFC FNTL BNDRY PASSES LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT USHERING IN
COOLER AIR AS THE UPR LOW SETTLES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AFT A
BRIEF PD OF DRY WX DIRECTLY BHD THE FNT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR LOW ROTATES INTO THE FCST AREA AND LINGERS THRU MUCH OF
THE PD. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE BLO NRML WITH H8 TEMPS TO ARND 8C.
LOW BEGINS TO LIFT LATE IN THE PD...BUT WAA MAY GENERATE A FEW
SHWRS THRU MON.
WITH ONGOING SVR WX...RELIED ON HPC GUID FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD
PD...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
MOST SITES VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELM HAS DENSE FOG NOW AND VLIFR
FOG NOW WHICH SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z. TONIGHT ELM WILL HAVE MVFR VSBY
FOG STARTING AROUND 5Z. DRIER AIR COMING IN SO DENSE FOG NOT AS
LIKELY AS THIS MORNING. BGM AND ITH HAVE MVFR VSBYS NOW WHICH
SHOULD BECOME VFR AROUND 12Z.
TODAY A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
ONE SITE WILL HAVE SHOWERS...TO PUT IT IN NOW. CIGS WILL STAY VFR
WITH DECREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING TO
5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
.OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT
FOG NOT EXPECTED.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY...MVFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. FRIDAY
NIGHT STEADY RAIN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
128 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM WEDNESDAY...
REST OF TODAY: HAVE OPTED TO DROP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH... WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY EXITED. OTHERWISE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE CENTER OF BERYL BASED ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAS MOVED TO A POSITION BETWEEN MYR AND
ILM... IN LINE WITH THE NHC FORECAST TRACK. AS BERYL MAY BE
TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM AS IT INGESTS DRY AIR ON ITS
SOUTH SIDE... MUCH OF THE RAIN SHIELD IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS
BEEN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER... WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO THE NORTHWEST OVER ERN NC
WITHIN A ZONE OF MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA AS
WELL WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE HAS BEEN
ABOUT ONE TO TWO INCHES... AND WITH ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH
POSSIBLE... EARLIER STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS APPEAR TO BE
QUITE GOOD. WILL RETAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST... SLOWLY
EXITING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... ENDING LAST IN THE
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RECENT MESOANALYSES
FROM SPC ARE DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER 0-3 KM CAPE...
ELEVATED 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2... AND 25 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR NOSING INTO EAST CENTRAL NC... AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE OUT FOR A QUICK WEAK SPIN-UP OR TWO OVER THE FAR SE CWA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN THE WRN CWA... WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DRYING ALOFT MAY BRIEFLY BUMP UP INSTABILITY GIVEN THE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HERE... HOWEVER RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THE COLUMN WILL SUFFICIENTLY DRY OUT WITH STABILIZING MID
LEVELS TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.
ADJUSTING FOR THE INCREASING SUNSHINE IN THE WESTERN CWA AND ONGOING
RAIN IN THE EAST TO LIMIT WARMING... EXPECT HIGHS FROM 87 WEST TO 76
EAST. -GIH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MAY SEE AREAS
OF FOG BY THU MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. MIN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. -WSS
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 AM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS CONTINUES TO DISPLAY MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE DRIER/MORE STABLE NAM. LATEST
ECMWF OFFERS A BIT OF A COMPROMISE. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE POPS LATE THU AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT AS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS AND A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY LIFT
NE ACROSS REGION. PRESENCE OF WEAK HEIGHT RISES AND MID LEVEL S/W
RIDGE SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED NORTH-NE OF
RDU THU AFTERNOON-EVENING SO HAVE PLACED LOWEST POPS IN THIS REGION.
RATHER WARM THU AFTERNOON WITH THICKNESSES SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90. WARM AND MUGGY THU NIGHT WITH MINS 65-70.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:
CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND BECOME STACKED. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY
MORNING... WITH THE FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE NC COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY
(WITH MOST MODELS NOW AGREEING ON THIS TIME FRAME... MUCH BETTER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO). GIVEN THE RATHER STRONG TROUGH ALOFT AND
IMPROVING LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
EXPECT WE MAY SEE AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG OR
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
25 TO 35 KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 800 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-1KM SRH
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 100-150
M2/S2... WITH THE 12Z ECWMF SHOWING A POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT. THUS...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER... THINK THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ORGANIZED
LINE ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW... WITH HOPES OF NARROWING DOWN THE TIME
FRAME IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
EAST POSSIBLY NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.
LOWS SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S SE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS KEEPING CENTRAL NC IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME... WITH A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE CENTERED OFF OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST (THIS KEEP CENTRAL NC SUSCEPTIBLE TO
DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT) BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS... AFTER A DRY SATURDAY... CONFIDENCE
DECREASES IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME... WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
(MAYBE SOME 70S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY THOUGH) AND LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE OVER CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON... AS THE CENTER OF T.D. BERYL MOVES TO THE NE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS. THE ASSOCIATED SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF INT/GSO...
WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL ENSURE CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST... MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST AT RDU/RWI/FAY... BUT THESE WILL IMPROVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS... WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z AND 22Z. NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 8-12 KTS WILL SPORADICALLY
GUST TO 18-24 KTS... HOWEVER THESE WILL BE INFREQUENT AND WILL
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH
AT RDU/RWI/FAY THIS EVENING LEADING TO AREAS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG
AFTER 02Z AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. BUT AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT
OVERNIGHT... ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD MORNING. ANY CIGS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITHIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ028-042-
043-078-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
459 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.UPDATE...
WRF...NAM AND GFS ARE ALL VIRTUALLY BONE DRY OVERNIGHT. RUC STILL
TRYING TO HANG ON TO CONVECTION WHICH HAS YET TO OCCUR. CURRENT
FCST IS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. CONVECTION COULD STILL FIRE
BUT ITS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.
THE PLAN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TO GIVE THE CONVECTION CHANCES
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE WITHDRAWING THE OVERNIGHT POPS.
OVERNIGHT UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HELD AT
BAY. HOWEVER...MAY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AS PER
THE CURRENT PROXIMITY OF THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION.
OTW...QUIET NIGHT...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT MAY BE TOMORROW AT
THIS TIME.
NO UPDATE AT THIS MOMENT...BUT LOOK FOR UPDATE WITH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS SOMEWHAT STABLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S. DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HAVE SMALL POPS IN FOR TONIGHT BUT THINK WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT ON BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
TENNESSEE THURSDAY MORNING TO PROVIDE FOCUS. EXPECT WE WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK CATEGORICAL
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
IN THE MID STATE LATE AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE
LOW UNDERGOES CYCLOGENSIS AS IT ROLLS EAST FROM OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY LATE IN THE
DAY THURSDAY. WIND PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. RAIN SHOULD END FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM MISSOURI. A
DIRTY SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER TROUGH RULES...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCE UNTIL ABOUT TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN MODELS HAVE
FAIRLY LOW QPF.
AND NOW A LITTLE TRIVIA: NASHVILLE IS ON PACE TO HAVE THE 6TH
WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AND THE WARMEST SINCE 1991. NASHVILLE HAD
TWO DAYS OF 95 DEGREE HEAT THIS MONTH. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURE
EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF MAY IS 96 BACK IN 1937.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.UPDATE...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC... SEVERE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
EAST CENTRAL AR AND MUCH OF NORTH MS. RADAR SHOWED A STRONG TO
SEVERE LINE LIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL AR...RIDING ALONG AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ORGANIZED BY SOUTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IL SHORTWAVE.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED INTO WEST TN EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAS LED A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MEMPHIS AREA.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER NORTHEAST AR AT MIDMORNING.
OVERALL A DECREASING INTENSITY TREND WAS SHOWN BY RADAR...THOUGH A
FEW STRONGER CELLS WERE NOTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AR. THE STORMS
HAD FORMED ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
AR... AND WERE AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...LIFTING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MO.
FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPS OVER NORTHEAST AR AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TN...WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THE COLD POOL FROM THIS MORNING/S STORMS. OTHER UPDATES INCLUDED A
BUMP IN POPS INTO NORTHWEST TN... WHERE OUTFLOW SHOULD STALL NEAR
PEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING.
PWB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW 60S. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN OK...SWRN
MO...WRN AR...AND NERN TX. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE FAILED RATHER
MISERABLY IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THIS MCS IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME
HAVING IT DISPLACED MUCH TOO FAR NORTH. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE ALSO FIRED RECENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AR. MESOSCALE
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR HAVE PERFORMED MUCH BETTER AND WILL FOLLOW
THOSE FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY. THAT BEING SAID...THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA THIS
MORNING. ITS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AN UNCAPPED...MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN
AR...SWRN TN...NWRN MS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE THERE WITH DIMINISHING POPS TO THE EAST. LARGE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES RISE AGAIN
INTO THE LOW 90S MAY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING OVER OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY MORNING. ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WHICH WILL GROW INTO ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW
FAR EAST THIS MCS WILL TRACK OVERNIGHT...SOME INDICATIONS SUGGEST
IT MAY REACH EASTERN ARKANSAS LATE. THEREFORE...KEPT MODERATE CHC
POPS ACROSS THAT REGION.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY
AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD A WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR.
WHILE WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW AT LEAST EARLY...MODERATELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. THE
RISK OF SEVERE WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MAY SEE MESSY CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
EVENTUALLY FORM A SQUALL LINE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER
21Z-00Z WITH ATTENDANT WIND DAMAGE THREAT. LOW LEVEL FLOW/VEERING
DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT SO WILL REMOVE
THAT THREAT FROM THE HWO.
GFS STILL LAGS BACK WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH ALL OTHER LARGE
SCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DRYING THINGS OUT BY 12Z FRIDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING A REFRESHING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WAA RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE
AXIS A BIT WESTWARD WITH RECENT RUNS AND NOW KEEPS THE MIDSOUTH IN
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A PESKY WEAK FRONT REMAINING IN PLACE.
THUS...SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
SUNDAY AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK WARM...UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STRENGTHENING LINE OF CONVECTION BETWEEN MEM AND LZK WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT FOR THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL RIDE ALONG I-40 AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE
PLACED TEMPO FOR THUNDER IN AT MEM AND LATER FOR TUP AS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS ALL OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DROP CONDITIONS
DOWN TO MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. JBR
INITIALLY WILL SEE VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS...WHILE MORE STABLE AIR
WILL LIKELY KEEP MKL OUT OF THE THREAT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE AT MEM...MKL...AND JBR AND
EVENTUALLY TUP WILL SEE A NORTH WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
STORMS.
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND
THE LINE...WITH LIGHT WINDS BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER CENTRAL
PLAINS CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 73 82 56 74 / 30 90 50 10
MKL 66 81 55 71 / 30 80 70 10
JBR 69 77 54 74 / 40 90 30 10
TUP 69 86 58 73 / 20 60 80 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1223 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER NORTHEAST AR AT MIDMORNING.
OVERALL A DECREASING INTENSITY TREND WAS SHOWN BY RADAR...THOUGH A
FEW STRONGER CELLS WERE NOTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AR. THE STORMS
HAD FORMED ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
AR... AND WERE AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...LIFTING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MO.
FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPS OVER NORTHEAST AR AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TN...WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THE COLD POOL FROM THIS MORNING/S STORMS. OTHER UPDATES INCLUDED A
BUMP IN POPS INTO NORTHWEST TN... WHERE OUTFLOW SHOULD STALL NEAR
PEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING.
PWB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW 60S. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN OK...SWRN
MO...WRN AR...AND NERN TX. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE FAILED RATHER
MISERABLY IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THIS MCS IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME
HAVING IT DISPLACED MUCH TOO FAR NORTH. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE ALSO FIRED RECENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AR. MESOSCALE
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR HAVE PERFORMED MUCH BETTER AND WILL FOLLOW
THOSE FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY. THAT BEING SAID...THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA THIS
MORNING. ITS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AN UNCAPPED...MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN
AR...SWRN TN...NWRN MS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE THERE WITH DIMINISHING POPS TO THE EAST. LARGE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES RISE AGAIN
INTO THE LOW 90S MAY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING OVER OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY MORNING. ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WHICH WILL GROW INTO ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW
FAR EAST THIS MCS WILL TRACK OVERNIGHT...SOME INDICATIONS SUGGEST
IT MAY REACH EASTERN ARKANSAS LATE. THEREFORE...KEPT MODERATE CHC
POPS ACROSS THAT REGION.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY
AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD A WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR.
WHILE WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW AT LEAST EARLY...MODERATELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. THE
RISK OF SEVERE WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MAY SEE MESSY CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
EVENTUALLY FORM A SQUALL LINE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER
21Z-00Z WITH ATTENDANT WIND DAMAGE THREAT. LOW LEVEL FLOW/VEERING
DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT SO WILL REMOVE
THAT THREAT FROM THE HWO.
GFS STILL LAGS BACK WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH ALL OTHER LARGE
SCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DRYING THINGS OUT BY 12Z FRIDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING A REFRESHING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WAA RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE
AXIS A BIT WESTWARD WITH RECENT RUNS AND NOW KEEPS THE MIDSOUTH IN
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A PESKY WEAK FRONT REMAINING IN PLACE.
THUS...SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
SUNDAY AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK WARM...UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STRENGTHENING LINE OF CONVECTION BETWEEN MEM AND LZK WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT FOR THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL RIDE ALONG I-40 AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE
PLACED TEMPO FOR THUNDER IN AT MEM AND LATER FOR TUP AS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS ALL OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DROP CONDITIONS
DOWN TO MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. JBR
INITIALLY WILL SEE VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS...WHILE MORE STABLE AIR
WILL LIKELY KEEP MKL OUT OF THE THREAT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE AT MEM...MKL...AND JBR AND
EVENTUALLY TUP WILL SEE A NORTH WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
STORMS.
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND
THE LINE...WITH LIGHT WINDS BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER CENTRAL
PLAINS CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 88 73 82 56 / 50 30 90 50
MKL 89 66 81 55 / 20 30 80 70
JBR 82 69 77 54 / 50 40 90 30
TUP 93 69 86 58 / 20 20 60 80
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1202 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED FOR HIGHER THUNDER CHANCES FURTHER WEST TO ABOUT
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALSO MENTIONED SEVERE
THREAT. MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS NOW INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORM
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY SILVERTON TO DOUGHERTY LINE
AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PILE UP ON EDGE OF THE CAPROCK.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH A WEAK APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING.
MIXED LAYER CAPES APPEAR ADEQUATE FOR WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT
THIS AREA...LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS HOWEVER APPEAR A BIT HIGH
FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT. AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS INDICATE
MORE A SPLITTING SUPERCELL THREAT...THOUGH LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
LENGTHEN THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE STORMS ARRIVING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THOSE LONGER HODOGRAPHS THEN SOMETHING TO CONSIDER.
ANYWAY...AREAS FURTHER WEST ON THE CAPROCK LIKELY TO REMAIN HOT
AND DRY WITH SURFACE LOW EDGING GRADUALLY TO THE WEST FAVORING THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR AND DRY AT KLBB EARLY. OUTFLOW/FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
KLBB DURING THE EVENING WITH A RISK OF AT LEAST MVFR CIG LATER
TONIGHT. WEST OF KCDS LATER TODAY...THUNDER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND DRIFT EAST INTO OR CLOSE TO KCDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. PREVIOUS TAF INDICATED GR
AND WE WILL CONTINUE. KCDS COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDER
DURING THE EARLY EVENING IF ACTIVITY EDGES IN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WINDS TURNING MORE
TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SHOULD BRING IN AN IFR OR MVFR CLOUD
LAYER THAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
AVIATION...
GREATEST FLIGHT COMPLICATIONS WILL UNFOLD AT CDS DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS. INITIAL THREAT IS FOR MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT LOW CLOUDS THUS FAR
HAVE FAILED TO DEVELOP CLOSER THAN 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF CDS. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. NEXT CHALLENGE IS TSRA
POTENTIAL. MODELS AS A WHOLE HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON TSRA
OVERNIGHT EAST OF CDS OR THE REMNANT BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND...BUT
OVERALL PATTERN BY THIS AFTN IS SUPPORTIVE OF ISO-SCT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT NEAR A SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BE JUST
WEST OF CDS BY PEAK HEATING. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
FORECAST BY THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS...HAVE ISOLATED A CRUDE
2-HOUR WINDOW OF TSRAGR ON STATION AT CDS FROM 22Z-00Z TO DRAW
ATTN TO THIS ENHANCED THREAT. BY TONIGHT...STRATUS IS SHOWN TO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWING COLD FROPA.
ONLY THREAT TO LBB IS THE RESULT OF AN ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER THAT
IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG LIKELY
REDUCING VISBYS TO LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR LEVELS. EXPECT VISBYS TO
RECOVER MARKEDLY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD FROPA LATER TONIGHT
COULD STIR UP A FEW LOW CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO 31/12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
SHORT TERM...
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE BOUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MUCH OF THIS POTENTIAL HINGES ON A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT HAS ALREADY ENTERED OUR FAR NERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF 15-25 MPH EASTERLY WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY IS COURTESY OF A
SERIES OF NOCTURNAL STORMS IN OKLAHOMA WHICH UNFORTUNATELY WERE NOT
HANDLED WELL AT ALL BY 00Z MODELS. GIVEN THIS OVERSIGHT BY THE
MODELS...THIS FORECAST IS THE RECIPIENT OF A RESPECTABLE DOSE OF
SOUTH PLAINS SVR WX CLIMATOLOGY AND PATTERN RECOGNITION.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN STALLING LATER THIS MORNING
ROUGHLY NEAR A SILVERTON TO GUTHRIE LINE AT WHICH TIME A WEAK
SURFACE LOW NEAR CLOVIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. MUCH OF THIS
EASTWARD PUSH WILL BE DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING IN VERY DRY AIR...BUT
SOME CONTRIBUTION CAN BE TRACED TO A NEARBY MINOR S/W TROF EMBEDDED
IN W-NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SHARPEN JUST OFF THE
CAPROCK BY MIDDAY AND INTERSECT THE OUTFLOW BDRY AND NEARBY SURFACE
LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE OR NRN ROLLING PLAINS. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NSSL-WRF AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING THE OUTFLOW BDRY IN PLACE BY MID-AFTN
WITH A TEXTBOOK DRYLINE BULGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
LUBBOCK. AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE AMPLE HEADWAY
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...BUT FAIL TO OVERWHELM DEEP MOISTURE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BDRY. ADD TO THIS A LFQ OF AN UPPER JET
MAXIMUM AND LIFT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR CI NEAR/SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. SUGGESTED EXTREME CAPE ALONE PER THE HRRR AND
NSSL-WRF WARRANT SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN
IS THE NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BDRY WHICH MAY INSPIRE ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HWO.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SETUP WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
AS THE S/W TROF PASSES THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTH FROM WRN KANSAS BEFORE OVERTAKING THE SOUTH PLAINS THU MRNG. A
PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LOCALLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
BACKGROUND ASCENT ON THE DECLINE BEHIND THE S/W TROF...FEEL POPS MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME BEING REALIZED UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN
THE NIGHT. FOR THIS REASON HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NRN TIER OF COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WHERE ELEVATED CAPE MAY BE PUT TO
WORK ONCE LL LIFT INTENSIFIES.
LONG TERM...
FLOW ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TO EVOLVE TO NW FLOW ON THURSDAY...THANKS
TO AN AMPLIFYING UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THREE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES THE FIRST OF WHICH
IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A MODERATELY STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WHILE THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE HIGH PLAINS WILL USHER IN A SECONDARY STRONGER
FRONTAL PUSH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE HINTS AT NORTHERLY
SFC WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH...WHICH IS NOT TOO SURPRISING GIVEN THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS INDUCED BY A 1018 MB SFC RIDGE NNE
OF THE REGION. WILL THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE COOLER TEMPS FOR
TOMORROW /MID 70S NW TO MID 80S SE/ AND A GRADUAL WARMUP THEREAFTER.
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DISPLAYED RATHER LIGHT QPF VALUES
NEARING THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WITH A
QUICK DIMINISHING LIKELY DUE TO THE DRYER AIR THAT WILL BE
TRANSPORTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE.
FURTHERMORE...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THUS LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
BE THE RULE /KEEPING POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE/. CONCURRENTLY...THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO BE A CUTOFF LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE SSE ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY...GIVING
LITTLE FANFARE FOR THE FA.
NW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH PLAINS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT...SFC WINDS VEERING TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT STORMS FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS QUITE BULLISH IN SHOWING THIS IN ADDITION TO
PRECIP NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE...COINCIDING WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AXIS. THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH MORE
PESSIMISTIC...WITH ONLY RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR STORMS TO DRIFT FROM HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND TOWARDS THE CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW
ALOFT...HOWEVER DESPITE THE BULLISH BEHAVIOR PORTRAYED FROM THE
GFS...IT AND NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE BEST PRECIP ACROSS
PANHANDLES. WILL OPT TO INCREASE POPS TO BETWEEN 10-14 PERCENT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...THUS BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS ATTM.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UA RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING. KEEPING
IN MIND THAT ON SATURDAY THE FLOW ALOFT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK NWLY FLOW...THE FIRST IMPULSE APPEAR TO SPARK STORMS ACROSS
THE SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EASTERN ZONES...AS THE TRANSPORT OF
GULF MOISTURE INDUCE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HENCE PROGGED
PWATS NEARING 1.70 INCHES...A WEAK CAP AND SLIGHT SYNOPTIC LIFT
CAN NOT BE IGNORED. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE SECOND IMPULSE
WILL CREATE THE RETURN OF THE SLOSHING DRYLINE...WHICH IS SHOWN TO
RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...AS FLOW ALOFT
EVOLVES TO SW FLOW DUE TO AN INCOMING PACIFIC UA LOW. THE CAP
APPEARS RELATIVELY STRONG AS THE GFS IS VOID OF PRECIP DESPITE A
LINGERING DRYLINE...VERSUS SIGNALS OF PRECIP ALONG THE DRYLINE EACH
EVENING PER THE ECMWF. WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS BEYOND SATURDAY
NIGHT ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 91 57 76 52 83 / 0 20 10 10 10
TULIA 94 59 77 53 83 / 10 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 98 60 78 54 83 / 0 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 98 62 81 55 85 / 0 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 99 63 81 55 84 / 0 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 98 61 83 56 86 / 0 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 99 63 82 56 85 / 0 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 97 65 83 57 83 / 20 50 10 10 10
SPUR 102 63 83 57 86 / 20 20 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 102 66 85 57 87 / 10 30 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/99/05