Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/29/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1115 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO WITH ASSOCIATED STAND UP COLD FRONT TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH 12Z...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25KTS
AT COS...PUB AND ALS BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-09Z
AND THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. SMOKE FROM NEW MEXICO WILDFIRES
AND DUST SUSPENDED WITHIN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS AFFECTING TAF
SITES WITH VFR CIGS OF 040-060 AND OCCASIONALLY REDUCED VIS TO AOB
6SM BEING REPORTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE LESSER EFFECTS OF SAID
SMOKE AND DUST PARTICLES TOMORROW...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25KTS AT TAF SITES ONCE AGAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -MW

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...

UPDATING TO LET HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT...WITH STRONG
AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STANDUP COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE STATE...AS WELL AS THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND STRONG
MIXING. RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 PM FOR ZONES 221
AND 222 WITH CURRENT RHS IN THE 5-10 PERCENT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. -MW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.

A STRONG UPR LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACRS ERN ID AND WRN WY TONIGHT...AND MOVING INTO EASTERN MT
BY SUN AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE AREA WL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND WL THEN DECREASE. HOWEVER...MANY AREAS WL CONTINUE TO SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THAT UPR LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE STRONG WINDS...AND
LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS IN TELLER AND FREMONT COUNTIES AND OVER
THE RAMPART RANGE WL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE EVENING IN THESE AREAS...SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE.

THIS AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS NR THE KS BORDER HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...BUT THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 SHOW THE DRY
LINE WITH LOWER 50 DEW POINTS BACKING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF CO THIS EVENING...WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
800 J/KG. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35
KTS. SO WL KEEP IN ISOLD TO SCT POPS OVR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
THE HRRR ALSO KEEP SOME PCPN CHANCES IN THAT AREA UNTIL AT LEAST
06Z. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE A SEVERE STORM OUT
THERE WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTS NR 60 MPH.

ONE MINOR CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THAT IF THE WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT...THE TEMPS COULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING.

ON SUNDAY THE UPR TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS CO...WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. IT AGAIN
LOOKS LIKE WIND AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA
OVER TELLER AND FREMONT COUNTIES AND THE RAMPART RANGE...ALONG WITH
THE CONTINUED DRY FUELS...THUS WL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO
A RED FLAG WARNING.

WITH THAT TROF BRINGING COOLER AIR OVR THE AREA ON SUN...HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER. THAT SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROBABLY BRING SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL CO MTS SO WL LEAVE
THAT IN THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM
PASSES ACROSS MT AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRUSHING THE STATE TO
THE NORTH AND PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE SOME BRISK WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THEN RELAXES FOR TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT OR
NORTHERLY SURGE IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS MON
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE DRY AND A NON-PLAYER IN THE
EXPECTED TEMPS...SO LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE PLAINS...AND IN THE 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY MT REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN SYSTEM DROPS DOWN INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE US...AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DESERT US. LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST FRI IS EXPECTED TO
KEP AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SOME CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND E PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. 27

AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH
25 TO 35 KTS GENERALLY AT THE TAF SITES...AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS.
THESE SHOULD DECREASE THRU THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
AT KCOS AND KPUB TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT KALS WL HAVE REDUCED VSBY
THIS EVENING DUE TO BLOWING DUST. ONCE THE WINDS DECREASE THE
BLOWING DUST WL STOP...PROBABLY BY 02-03Z AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ON
SUNDAY FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY 20-30 KTS AND
SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ221-222.

23/23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

931 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCING TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE HRRR HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION IN OUR CWA AND IS
PRETTY GOOD WITH SOME OF THE PERIPHERAL CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS
EVENING. BASED ON ITS LATEST RUN THE NY TSRAS SHOULD BYPASS US TO
THE EAST AND THE WRN PA CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
ARRIVING. OTHERWISE BASED ON THE CURRENT DEW POINTS, IT WILL BE A
WARM NIGHT AND NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME ALMOST CALM IN OUR SHELTERED
AREAS. ONCE AGAIN THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHIER FOG AND STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN MANY
AREAS WITH THE URBANIZED LOCATIONS REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
70. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING HIGH AND VERY LITTLE WIND TO
STIR THE AIR, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
AND ANOTHER HOT HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR MANY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 90 ONCE AGAIN WITH HEAT INDICES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
APPROACHES, THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS AND SPC DOES HAVE OUR NORTHWEST ZONES UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE THE
HEAT FOR TUESDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND STILL HAS CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD...BUT THERE IS INDICATION THAT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.

500MB AND SFC TEMPS: TROUGHING EVOLVES IN THE EASTERN USA THIS WEEK
WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY TEMPERATURES BECOMING NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING CF ASSTD WITH GRTLKS SW HAS 1.8 INCH
PWAT CORRIDOR AHD OF IT AND AND DECENT RRQ OF THE 250MB 110 KT JET N
OF LK ONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO RELEASE HEAVY CONVECTION...PROBABLY
SOME SVR TO START THE EVENING IN E PA AND NNJ WITH TT NEAR 48 AND
MARGINAL BUT INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. FF RISK IS DISCUSSED
BRIEFLY IN THE HYDRO SECTION.

WEDNESDAY...REMAINING SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS SHOULD BE HEADING SEAWARD
AND THEN A DRYING OUT ALOFT AS GTLKS SW LIFTS NEWD AND PERMITS A
GENERAL WLY FLOW ALOFT DURING THE DAY. BL WIND FIELDS LIGHT SO
LOWERING DEWPOINTS MAY TAKE A WHILE AND THINK THAT OUR DEWPOINT
FCST MAY NEED TO TREND UP IN FUTURE FCSTS. AFTN SEABREEZES LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHC OF A LATE DAY/EVENING SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE IN E PA AND NW NJ BUT FOR NOW THE POPS ARE IN THE SLIGHT
CHC CAT AND NOT MENTIONED IN THE LEGACY ZONES.

ONE OTHER NOTE: LOW PROBABILITY THAT IT NUDGES 90 ON WEDNESDAY AND
IF IT DOES...AND IT REACHES 90 TOMORROW...WE WOULD THEN HAVE OUR
FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON AT KILG AND KPHL.

THURSDAY...COMFORTABLY DRY AND VERY NICE WITH WEAK HIGH PRES AND
A GUSTY NW-N BL FLOW - PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH HEADS ENE WITH ITS
SIGNIFICANT SPRING LOW PRES SYSTEM BRINGING A SHOWERY PERIOD HERE...
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED SVR FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THERE IS MODEL
SPREAD ON TIMING. AT LEAST THE UKMET HAS COME NORTH FROM ITS 00Z/28
FCST. THE ECMWF AND HPC WERE MOST PROGRESSIVE. DID BLEND IN THE
SLOWER IDEAS OF THE 12Z OP UKMET/GGEM/GFS WITH THE 14Z/28 HPC
GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...OTHER THAT THE DIURNAL POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER IN
THE AFTN/EVENING...IT SHOULD BE NICE WITH THE COOL TROUGH AXISED
N/S NEAR 70W AND NWLY FLOW HERE AS HIGH PRES IS SHUNTED ACROSS THE
SE USA.

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE ISSUED 00Z TAFS CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND THEN BRING MOST OF OUR TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR (DUE TO FOG, NOT
CLOUDS) TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. WE ALSO HAVE KEPT THE POSSIBILITY
OF IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME OF OUR MORE RURAL OUTLYING TERMINALS (AS
WELL AS OTHER RURAL AIRPORTS). CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE LATTER THOUGH
IS LESS THAN THE CONFIDENCE ABOUT MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING. AS
WOULD BE EXPECTED WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE CHANCE OF
AN INITIAL BURST OF SHOWERS, MAYBE THUNDER, IN OR AROUND 16Z ONCE
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE FIRST GETS REACHED. THEN A MORE
ORGANIZED SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY. AT THIS JUNCTURE WE ARE NOT AS
CONFIDENT ABOUT THE FORMER AS THE LATTER. THE LATTER WAS THE ONE
THAT WAS EMPHASIZED IN THESE TAFS WITH THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD FROM AROUND THE KPHL AIRPORTS
NORTHWESTWARD. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOME GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
SCT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN AND OR CONTINUING.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT W WIND
WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES EXPECTED KACY/KMIV. SMALL CHC LATE DAY SHOWER
IN E PA.

THURSDAY...VFR. SCT AFTN CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT. NW-N GUSTS 15-20 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR TO START...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED OR SCT TSTMS. WIND
S-SE G20 KT LATE DAY OR AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...ANY LINGERING MVFR CONDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND SOUTH SHIFTING WEST WITH CFP
AND GUSTS 20-25 KTS.

.MARINE...
A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE S TO SW THROUGH TUESDAY. INITIALLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
RATHER TRANQUIL, BUT BY LATE TUESDAY WIND GUSTS COULD BE
APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WAVE HEIGHTS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS COULD BE RISING TO 5 FEET. SINCE THIS WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL VERY LATE TUESDAY AT THE EARLIEST, WE WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS EVALUATE
THE NEW COMPUTER GUIDANCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...SCA POTENTIAL MARGINAL...MAINLY FM BRIEFLY
STRENGTHENING SLY FETCH AHD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. NO SCA
ISSUANCE THIS SHIFT... ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG ON SLY FLOW.

THURSDAY...PROBABLY NO HEADLINE IN NW-N SFC FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK HIGH
PRES.

FRIDAY...WHILE THERE IS MODEL SPREAD IN THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE
SYSTEMS LATE FRIDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY
CONDS LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. TIMING CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH SOUTH WIND SHIFTING TO WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH CFP.

.HYDROLOGY...
1 AND 3 HOUR GRIDDED FFG FLAGS ADJACENT LEHIGH BUCKS BERKS COUNTIES
IN PA UNDER 1 INCH...0.7/1.0 AND FOR PARTS OF CARBON AND MONROE
0.9/1.5 INCHES IN THE 1 AND 3 HOUR GUIDANCE!

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE HYDROLOGY ISSUES IS THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THIS PERIOD THAN THE CONVECTION WE HAVE SEEN THE
PAST WEEK OR SO. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCAL POINT
FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ITSELF
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...SO CONVECTION COULD
LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (AND EVEN WEDNESDAY MORNING).

THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SO UNLIKE
THE CONVECTION OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. IN ADDITION...BACK-BUILDING LOOKS AS THOUGH IT
SHOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM AS WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN ISSUE
WOULD BE TRAINING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES DURING
THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD DOES RAISE THE SPECTER FOR
FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR A HEADLINE...
BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.CLIMATE...
KMPO RER HAS BEEN SENT AND MAY BE UPDATED IF HIGHER RECORD IN THE
530 PM TIME FRAME.

FIRST 90 OF THE SEASON AT KILG-91 KACY-90 AND KPHL 91.

RER FOR TODAY 5/28
KABE 93 1941
KACY 93 1991
KPHL 94 1941
KILG 93 1941
KRDG 92 1977 1941 AND 1914
KMPO 85 1908
KTTN 94 1941
KGED 93 1965

HEAT INDEX HAS ALREADY EQUALED 95 AT KILG...94 KPHL AND 93 KPNE
AND 97 AT KRDG...AND 94 TO 98 ACROSS DE/E MD SHORE. THIS SUMMERTIME
EVENT WAS WELL MODELED AT LEAST AS EARLY AS LAST TUESDAY.

RECORDS FOR TUESDAY MAY 29 ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SEEMINGLY OUT OF
REACH. RER SAMPLING IS KABE/KPHL 95...KILG 93-1991 AND PRIOR YEARS...
KGED 92 1955

RESURRECTING THE MONTHLY INFORMATION...

MONTHLY CLI.

KPHL CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR ITS 7TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF WELL ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. OCTOBER WAS THE MOST RECENT MONTH OF NEAR NORMAL WHICH
I CONSIDER TO BE WITHIN 0.5F OF NORM.

NOV 3.7
DEC 5.8
JAN 4.9
FEB 5.2
MAR 8.7
APR 1.5

MAY FOR KPHL... AS OF 8 AM TODAY-MAY 28TH...CONTINUES TO PROJECT PLUS
4.4F OR EQUIVALENT TO 68.2F WHICH WOULD RANK TOP 5 WARMEST...WELL
BELOW THE RECORD 70.8 IN 1991, AND THE 69.2 IN 2004.

POR DATES BACK TO 1874

KABE IS ON TRACK FOR 2ND WARMEST MAY.

SEP 3.4
OCT 1.3
NOV 3.9
DEC 6.1
JAN 5.5
FEB 5.9
MAR 10.7
APR 1.3

MAY AT KABE...IS PROJECTING..BASED ON THE 00Z/28 MIDNIGHT SHIFT
GRIDDED FCST INFORMATION.. PLUS 5.5F OR EQUIVALENT TO 66.1F WHICH
WOULD RANK 2ND WARMEST BEHIND THE 67.2 OF 1991, AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE 66.0 IN 1944 AND 65.9 IN 2004.

POR DATES BACK TO 1922

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ015-
017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/RPW
HYDROLOGY...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

915 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST THIS EVENING...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...

OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOOCIATED WITH BERYL HAVE REACHED INTO EC
FL COASTAL WATERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WSW. LATEST RAP RUN
INDICATES ACTIVITY REACHING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS AROUND MIDDAY AND
EXPANDING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDING AND
AREA PROFILERS INDICATE 25KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND
PLANNING TO NUDGE WINDS UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
SUSTAINED WINDS NOT QUITE MEETING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOME AREAS...GIVEN SOME EXPECTED GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND A BUSY HOLIDAY BOATING WEEKEND...WILL
EXPAND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE REMAINDER OF BREVARD AND
THE INTERIOR SOUTHWARD THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY WITH MORNING UPDATE.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING FROM NW-W TO W-SW THIS AFTERNOON AS BERYL
MOVES CLOSER TO THE NE FL COAST.

TONIGHT...(EDITED PREVIOUS) TRACK OF BERYL CONTINUES TO BRING THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE EVENING WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH RAIN BANDS FROM BERYL...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. FOR
MORE DETAILS ON EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM BERYL REFER TO THE LATEST
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE OFFICE.

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS PERSIST THROUGH ~15Z THEN TRENDING
TOWARD MORE TEMPO THEN PREVAILING IFR/MVFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS RAIN BANDS FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA. W/NW WILL BACK TO THE W/SW TODAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
UP TO 15-20+ KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND HIGHER IN VOLUSIA
COUNTY. GUSTS TO TS FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KDAB LATER TODAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.MARINE...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL MOVING INTO
EC FL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL EXPAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES WITH LATE MORNING CWF....TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY WITH
SCA FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE LEG...BUT A CAUTIONARY HEADLINE
WILL BE ADDED THERE. W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...BACKING
TO THE W/SW AS SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL MOVES TOWARD THE NE FLORIDA
COASTLINE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS. FOR MORE DETAILED IMPACTS
ON BERYL...SEE THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM NWS MLB.

MON-TUE...(PREVIOUS) POOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LCL ATLC
AS THE CIRCULATION OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL MEANDERS OVER NE FL/SE
GA. MODERATE TO FRESH S/SE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL N OF SEBASTIAN INLET
MON/MON NIGHT...GENTLE TO MODERATE S OF THE INLET. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE SW INTO TUE NIGHT AS BERYL BEGINS TO LIFT UP THE ERN
SEABOARD. ON MON...SEAS 4-6FT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...3-4FT S OF THE
INLET. ON TUE...SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...2-4FT
S OF THE INLET. DVLPG OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT ON TUE SHOULD GENERATE
CHOPPY/ROUGH SHORT PD WIND WAVES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.

WED-THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS THRU MIDWEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL
ARE PULLED UP THE ERN SEABOARD BY A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACRS THE
NRN TIER STATES. GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SW BREEZE. SEAS AOB 2FT
NEARSHORE...3-4FT OFFSHORE WED SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT THU.

.FIRE WEATHER...(PREVIOUS) NO LOW RH CONCERNS TODAY...BUT INCREASING
WINDS FROM APPROACH OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL INTO THE AFT MAY
CREATE RAPID SPREAD OF BRUSHFIRES IN AREAS WHERE RAINBANDS ARE NOT
PERSISTENT.

NO SIG ISSUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL USHERS IN
A MOIST WX PATTERN ACRS CENTRAL FL. SCT/NMRS SHRAS AND TSRAS THRU
TUE...BCMG SCT FROM WED ONWARD.

.HYDROLOGY...AREA IS INITIALLY STARTING OUT QUITE DRY WITH MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA STILL CLASSIFIED IN A DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
WITH SUCCESSIVE PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING TODAY AND
THROUGH THE MID WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS RECEIVING MORE
PERSISTENT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER CENTER OF BERYL
PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
TROFFING EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 73 87 74 / 90 70 70 60
MCO 90 71 89 72 / 60 60 60 50
MLB 89 74 87 74 / 50 60 50 40
VRB 88 73 86 74 / 50 50 50 40
LEE 90 72 89 72 / 60 70 70 60
SFB 90 72 90 73 / 70 70 60 60
ORL 90 73 90 73 / 60 60 60 50
FPR 88 73 86 74 / 50 50 50 40

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR BREVARD-LAKE-SEMINOLE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA.

AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20
NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK
TROPICAL OPERATIONS...MOSES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

120 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL AT
LEAST THROUGH 13Z-15Z. THE LOCATION OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE PENINSULA SHOULD RESULT IN A LIGHT MEAN WIND
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AND DICTATE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED AT ALL THE
TERMINALS FROM MID MORNING ON. THE MEAN STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCED BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF BERYL, WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW DOMINATING
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD INDUCE, NOT ONLY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF S. FLA, AND THEREFORE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS, BUT ALSO SHOULD STEER ANY STORM CLOSER TO THE ERN TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON VCTS WILL BE INDICATED IN
ALL ERN TAFS. ON THE OTHER HAND...WL EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO STAY
AWAY FROM KAPF.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

AVIATION...

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COASTLINE BETWEEN FLAMINGO AND
CHOKOLOSKEE. VCSH WAS LEFT IN THE TAF FOR THIS EVENING FOR NAPLES
ONLY. WIND FLOW MORE FROM SW ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD FOCUS EARLY
AFTERNOON TSTMS CLOSER TO E COAST. INCLUDED VCSH SHOWERS AFTER
SUNRISE FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AND NAPLES ON SUNDAY. FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AND INCLUDED VCTS AFTER 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
HOWEVER, ITS OVERALL ORIENTATION IS RESULTING IN A BIT OF LINGERING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
LOW LEVELS. DESPITE THESE FACTORS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST. IT APPEARS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
SHOULD WORK TO KEEP THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST MAINLY DRY WITH THE
STEERING FLOW TAKING ANY STORMS TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST. H5 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND -10C AND WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT, STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. 20-30
POPS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR MOST AREAS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF, WHICH SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END AFTER 00Z, BUT COULD LINGER IN
A FEW AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, BUT MAINLY OVER
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS, PARTICULARLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.
OTHERWISE, AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND PERHAPS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST, SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 06Z.

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TOTAL ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, H85 WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTION
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BERYL (OR ITS REMNANTS) WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE PUSHING WEST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
ULTIMATELY TAKING A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST SOMETIME MONDAY.
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS EVEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY, WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTH AND EAST.

WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID
WEEK PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THIS VERIFIES, A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT SATURDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
IT.

AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING ONSHORE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND GULF COAST SEA BREEZE ABOUT TO BEGIN
MOVING ONSHORE AS WELL. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ON FAR OUTER EDGE OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. EXPECTED
MOVEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION TO THE SSW-SW MEANS THAT SOME TSTMS
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO FLL-MIA AREA TERMINALS TO WARRANT A
VCTS MENTION THROUGH 03Z, BUT FEEL THAT TSTMS SHOULD NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT THESE SITES. SAME APPLIES FOR KAPF ALTHOUGH GULF COAST HAS
A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS THAN THE EAST COAST. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WITH PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS/FOG INTERIOR TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WIND FLOW
MORE FROM SW ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD FOCUS EARLY AFTERNOON TSTMS
CLOSER TO E COAST. /MOLLEDA

MARINE...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL PUSH A NORTH-NORTHEAST
SWELL INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
IT STILL APPEARS THE SWELL WILL PEAK AROUND 3 FEET OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND PATH OF BERYL. CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALSO DETERIORATE WITH INCREASING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 73 87 75 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 74 87 76 / 50 40 40 40
MIAMI 89 73 88 75 / 40 30 40 30
NAPLES 89 74 88 73 / 30 30 40 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

253 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
739 PM CDT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY...BUT SLOWLY
BECOMING LESS LIKELY THIS EVENING.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS WITH OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OFFER LITTLE IF ANY HELP...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO LIVE IN THE OBSERVATIONAL WORLD.

LATEST THINKING CONTINUES FROM EARLIER THINKING...THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING WITH CURRENT COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE CHANCES SHIFT NORTH AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME
FRAME. SO HAVE NOT ADJUSTED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WAS
DEBATING BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SOME
HIGH RES MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING WEST OF
OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND THEN TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
WITH 14 DEGREE AIR AT 700MB PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND LATEST 00Z
DVN SOUNDING SHOWING A DECENT CAP IN PLACE...I AM FINDING IT HARD
TO BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. ALTHOUGH...THERE ARE SEVERAL
OTHER FACTORS WHICH ARE LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THIS POSSIBILITY
MIGHT NOT BE TOO FAR FETCHED. AS THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH WITH OUTFLOW/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION...COULD
FOR SEE CURRENT MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTERACT WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND BOUNDARY TO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION. THEN WITH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...AN INCREASING
LLJ COULD HELP FOCUS ANY CONVECTION INTO SOME TYPE OF COMPLEX.

ALTHOUGH...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS AS IF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS
WINNING. SO...WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAVE FORECAST AS IS BUT CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATEST TRENDS AND UPDATES.

RODRIGUEZ

.DISCUSSION...
338 PM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH A WARMING TREND STILL ON TRACK
AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.

ONGOING CHANGES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE WARM
FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH AREAS NEAR STERLING IN
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS SOUTHEAST TO AREAS NEAR KANKAKEE. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S NORTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH
THIS EVENING WITH STEADY IF NOT WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS...PAVING THE WAY FOR A WARM NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
CONTINUE WITH MAIN THERMAL AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY
BRINGING 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C ACROSS THE CWA. THIS COINCIDING
WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING OF SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL ALL AID IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S ON SUNDAY...WITH STRONG FLOW KEEPING ANY LAKE BREEZE AT BAY
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT NOT
QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER ISSUES WITH SURFACE WAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

AFTER A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED EAST ACROSS
AREAS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...THE CWA HAS REMAINED
MOSTLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS DRY TREND THUS FAR...STILL
FEEL THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TO OBSERVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STILL AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT REMAINING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY AS BEEN
USELESS WITH MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO GENERATE CONVECTION WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN NONE...AND MOSTLY LIKELY NOT BE. DESPITE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
AND SURGE OF GOOD MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY NORTH...WARMING ALOFT
HAS LIMITED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING
THAT 700MB TEMPS OF 10-12C ARE PUSHING OVERHEAD...WHICH IN THE
ABSENCE OF BOTH GOOD SURFACE LIFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...HAS
LIMITED ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THIS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH THE SHOWERS WHICH HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ACROSS
IOWA...WHICH ARE ALREADY DISSIPATING. FEEL THAT THE ONLY CHANCE
FOR THE CWA TO OBSERVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS AND
FEEL THAT THIS IS THE AREA WHICH MAY HELP STEER CONVECTION
SOUTHWARD. AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THIS COULD PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WHICH COULD THEN INTERACT WITH A NORTHWARD SURGING
WARM FRONT. SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
COMPLEX HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO SEEM
PROBABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC DETAILS COMING INTO BETTER LINE.
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH COULD HELP FEED THIS DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN
HELP STEER ANY CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT
WERE TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AN
OUTSIDE WIND AND HAIL THREAT COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AS STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN. RIGHT NOW...THIS IS THE LOW END SOLUTION
BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RODRIGUEZ

.CLIMATE...

...RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MAY 27TH...

529 PM...CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH AT ORD OF 96 ON
SUNDAY...MAY 27TH. THE ORD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 94 SET IN
1911.

THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF 96 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN CHICAGO IS ON
MAY 31ST 1934 WHEN A RECORD HIGH OF 98 WAS REACHED. THUS...IF THE
TEMPERATURE DOES REACH 96 OR HIGHER ON SUNDAY MAY 27TH...IT
WILL BECOME THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR.

CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH OF 95 AT RFD ON SUNDAY...MAY
27TH. THE RFD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 92 SET IN 1978.

A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR THE
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS BELOW. DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...REACHING RECORD HIGHS ON MONDAY IS
STILL POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN REACHING RECORD HIGHS
ON SUNDAY.

RECORDS FOR ORD...
HIGH TEMP/YEAR HIGH MINIMUM TEMP/YEAR

SUN MAY 27TH 94/1911 75/1911
MON MAY 28TH 93/1977 74/2006

RECORDS FOR RFD...

SUN MAY 27TH 92/1978 71/1914
MON MAY 28TH 93/2006 69/2006

RODRIGUEZ

.FIRE WEATHER...
451 PM CDT

AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS
EVENING...IT WILL HELP USHER A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS AND MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
DESPITE HIGHER MOISTURE AIR SHIFTING NORTH...COULD STILL OBSERVE
SOME LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND THE 35 PERCENT AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS STRONG
MIXING AND HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH...NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE TOO STRONG IN THESE
LOCATIONS WITH 20FT WINDS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF AT 10-15MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TEMP AND DEWPOINT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM. NONETHELESS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30-35 PERCENT ARE STILL EXPECTED. STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WITH 20FT WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 20MPH.

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* INCREASING SOUTH WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTERNOON
* LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO
SOUTHERLY BY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SPEEDS LIKELY TO PICK UP TOWARD
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY ATTAIN SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20KT OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD
SEE WINDS DECREASE A BIT AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARMER HEAT ISLAND COULD ALLOW FOR
CHICAGO METRO TERMINALS TO DEVELOP SOME OCCASSIONAL GUSTINESS
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO INCREASE THE THREAT OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM URBAN
HEAT ISLAND WHERE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 30 KT. CHANCE OF
TSRA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...VFR.

MDB

.MARINE...
253 AM CDT

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS VEERING TO MORE SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT ADVECTING OVER THE STILL CHILLY LAKE WILL
RESULT IN STRONGLY STABLE CONDITIONS...LIMITING WINDS AND
PARTICULARLY WAVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
PROGGED TO GET STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAMPING UP OF WINDS
MONDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING
TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH INITIALLY LOOKS SOMEWHAT STABLE TUESDAY BEFORE
STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS/WAVES BUILDING SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT..ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. HIGH BUILDS MID WEEK ONWARD WITH LIGHTER
WINDS DICTATED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY LAND/LAKE BREEZES.

IZZI

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
739 PM CDT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY...BUT SLOWLY
BECOMING LESS LIKELY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS AS IF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS
WINNING. SO...WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAVE FORECAST AS IS BUT CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATEST TRENDS AND UPDATES.

RODRIGUEZ

.DISCUSSION...
338 PM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.CLIMATE...

...RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MAY 27TH...

529 PM...CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH AT ORD OF 96 ON
SUNDAY...MAY 27TH. THE ORD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 94 SET IN
1911.

CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH OF 95 AT RFD ON SUNDAY...MAY
27TH. THE RFD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 92 SET IN 1978.

RECORDS FOR ORD...
HIGH TEMP/YEAR HIGH MINIMUM TEMP/YEAR

SUN MAY 27TH 94/1911 75/1911
MON MAY 28TH 93/1977 74/2006

RECORDS FOR RFD...

SUN MAY 27TH 92/1978 71/1914
MON MAY 28TH 93/2006 69/2006

RODRIGUEZ

.FIRE WEATHER...
451 PM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* INCREASING SOUTH WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTERNOON
* LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 30 KT. CHANCE OF
TSRA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...VFR.

MDB

.MARINE...
247 PM CDT

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND
WESTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN NORTHEAST TO SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...
LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT NORTH AND BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY EVENING WHILE THE LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT DUE TO THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
AREAS BUT DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE COOL WATER UNDER
VERY WARM AIR...PREVAILING SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 15-20KT.

THE LOW MOVES TRACKS EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST TO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY WINDS DROP OFF TO 10 KT OR LESS AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH APPROACHES.

TRS

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1051 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

.UPDATE...
BKN LINE OF TSTMS HAS WEAKENED SINCE NIGHTFALL AS EXPECTED BUT
STILL SCT ACTIVITY APCHG OUR CWA FROM NE IL. LATEST MESO/SHORT RANGE
MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AND COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH APCHG UPR LEVEL TROF WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS/TSTMS FILLING IN
LATE TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THUS... LEFT LIKELY POPS IN
EASTERN PORTION OF CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN DECREASING INSTABILITY
CONCERN FOR SVR STORMS LOW... THOUGH STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL WITH STORMS GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/

AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
BKN LINE OF TSRA ALONG CDFNT FROM NE WI-NE MO THIS EVE. NARROW BAND
OF M60S SFC DWPTS HAS ADVECTED NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO PERSIST AS THEY MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT... THOUGH WITH LOSS OF HEATING GRADUAL WKNG TREND
EXPECTED AFTER DARK. FEW SHRA/TS OCNLY DVLPG AHEAD OF MAIN LINE
BUT THREAT OF THESE IMPACTING TERMINALS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAFS. THUS... ADDED TEMPO TSRA FM 04Z-08Z AT SBN AND FM 08Z-12Z
AT FWA WITH FROPA SHORTLY AFTER. GIVEN DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE SHALLOW DVLPG NOCTURNAL INVERSION... GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR A FEW
HRS AFTER FROPA WITH NW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/

SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

FOCUS ON HEAT INTO THIS EVENING AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

STRONG MIXING OF WARM LL TEMPS HAS ALLOWED FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA
TO CLIMB INTO THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...THIS
SAME MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT TO BE MIXED
DOWN...LOWERING DEWPTS INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 VS LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...PARTIALLY AS A
RESULT OF THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM BEST
DYNAMICS. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM ON THIS
FEATURE...BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANYTHING OTHER THAN SLGT CHC. HRRR MODEL
SHOWS SFC COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM WISCONSIN TO EASTERN IOWA...MAY
BEGIN TO CATCH UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS NEXT JET STREAK
APPROACHES. MOISTURE WAS POOLING BEHIND THE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH DEWPTS IN THE 64 TO NEARLY 70 DEGREE RANGE.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SW WARD ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE STORMS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 23 AND 1Z AND THEN WORK EAST FROM THERE. WITH LOSS
OF PEAK HEATING...SOME QUESTION AS TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
TONIGHT BUT ATTEMPT TO ADD MORE DETAIL ON TIMING. SVR CHANCES STILL
IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND CAPES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE WITH TIME AND BEST JET DYNAMICS TO PASS NW OF THE AREA. IF
A WELL ESTABLISHED LINE CAN MATERIALIZE...INCREASED CHANCES FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST WITH AT LEAST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD
IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR.

FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND ON POPS WITH DRY CONDITIONS NOW STARTING AT 15Z. MAIN
PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL STILL BE BEHIND A BIT BUT ARRIVE BY TUES NGT
ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DISPARAGING DETERMINISTIC MODEL RESPONSES
SUGGEST STRONG LEAN ONTO CONSISTENCY IN ORDER WRT LATER PDS. LEAN
TOWARD ECMWF WITH AT LEAST SOME RUN TO RUN SEMBLANCE. GEM STILL
APPEARS TO DIG NEXT SYSTEM /INTO EPAC ATTM/ TOO FAR SWD GOING INTO
DY4 WITH LATEST OP GFS AFFORDING MIDDLE OF ROAD APPROACH TO THE
AGAIN MORE FAVORED HIR BELTED ECMWF GIVEN OVERALL LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
PATTERN. SRN/SERN CWA REMAINS KEYED ON ISENT UPGLIDE WITH STRONG OH
VLY CYCLOGENESIS FOR HIEST POPS PEGGED SRN CWA THU NIGHT TO ERN CWA
AT LEAST ERLY FRI. THEREAFTER...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS WITH PIN-POINT OF
PSBL MCS TOPPING UPSTREAM LOW AMPED RIDGE TO LKLY REMAIN QUITE AN
ONEROUS TASK. PREFERENCE TO REMAIN DRY DYS5-7 IN MIDST OF ONSET OF
LOW END/ERLY STAGE DROUGHT UNTIL SIGNALS BECOME MORE EVIDENT.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION/UPDATE...JT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

737 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
BKN LINE OF TSRA ALONG CDFNT FROM NE WI-NE MO THIS EVE. NARROW BAND
OF M60S SFC DWPTS HAS ADVECTED NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO PERSIST AS THEY MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT... THOUGH WITH LOSS OF HEATING GRADUAL WKNG TREND
EXPECTED AFTER DARK. FEW SHRA/TS OCNLY DVLPG AHEAD OF MAIN LINE
BUT THREAT OF THESE IMPACTING TERMINALS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAFS. THUS... ADDED TEMPO TSRA FM 04Z-08Z AT SBN AND FM 08Z-12Z
AT FWA WITH FROPA SHORTLY AFTER. GIVEN DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE SHALLOW DVLPG NOCTURNAL INVERSION... GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR A FEW
HRS AFTER FROPA WITH NW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/

SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

FOCUS ON HEAT INTO THIS EVENING AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

410 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH MONDAY...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM BERYL SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST
TOWARDS THE COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PULL BERYL UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MID WEEK...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM BERYL OFF THE COAST OF
NRN FL COAST (SEE LATEST FORECAST AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR FURTHER
DETAILS). CLOSER TO HOME...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS PERSIST ACRS NE NC/FAR SOUTHERN VA IN THE WARM/HUMID
AIRMASS. SKIES ARE SOMEWHAT LESS CLOUDY FARTHER N/W...WHERE TEMPS
ARE GENLY IN THE MID-UPR 80S (80-85 FARTHER SE). MUCH OF THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT
MOVES INTO VA...AND BULK OF IT REMAINS OFF TO OUR SW...SO WILL
CARRY ONLY LOW CHC POPS FROM ABOUT ECG TO AVC AND SW...WITH A 20%
POP OVER SRN VA THRU 8 PM. MODELS W/ BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS..THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET AND HAVE DROPPED POPS THEREAFTER. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE IF
MCS ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA/WV WERE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND
REACH AKQ CWA DURING THE LATE EVENING HRS. GIVEN FAIRLY WEAK FLOW
ALOFT (NW FLOW GENLY STAYING TO OUR N) DOUBT THIS CONVECTION WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...W/
INCREASING CLOUDS LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. DECIDED NOT TO
INCLUDE FOG IN FCST AS AIRMASS IS SOMEWHAT MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE
THAN PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS (PROBABLY MORE OF A STRATUS SETUP RATHER
THAN FOG) MODELS SUGGEST A LGT S WIND OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS
ABOUT 3-5 F WARMER THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
65-70 RANGE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT STEERING FLOW KEEPS SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER MONTANA TRACKS TO HUDSON BAY CANADA BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCE TO MOVE
BERYL UP THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE S RATHER THAN E/SE OF THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN MAY SEE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH INTO VA BY AFTN...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL ONLY CARRY
20-30% POPS. HIGHS GENLY 85-90.

TUE/WED...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
BERYL MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY LATE IN THE THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
W/ HVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN AS PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...W/
LITTLE SHEAR DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS IN TERMS OF WIND. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS DEEPER MSTR MOVES IN FROM THE SSW. PERSIST
THROUGH MIDDAY WED AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE HI CHC POPS FAR W TO LIKELY ELSEWHERE ON WED. TEMPS HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT W/ CLOUDS...HIGHS LWR-MID 80S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC`S LEAD FOR FRONTAL POSITIONS AND PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSURING THAT BERYL WILL STAY
WELL OFFSHORE IN ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...PULLING THE
FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

HAVE MOST OF THE PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD OCCURRING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE LOW AROUND FRIDAY WITH PCPN DIMINISHING SATURDAY ON NW
SURFACE FLOW (BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY). THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A WEEKEND OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES START OFF FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND AND NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
AND OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS AND PCPN RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS
WILL BE FROM 60 TO 65 INLAND AND MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S NEAR THE

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT/BKN CU/TCU PREVAIL ACROSS REGION AT 18Z. SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE NC EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z. LOTS OF LO LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS REGION...AND NAM TSECTIONS
INDICATE BKN/OVC LOW CLDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS IN THE 06Z
TO 12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT. IFR FORECAST ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KECG...WHERE CEILINGS FORECAST JUST ABOVE IFR. ELSEWHERE...
CEILINGS BELOW 1KFT ARE ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST 2 NIGHTS. ONE LIMITING FACTOR
TO WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION IS A BIT MORE WIND IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT VICE THE LAST 2 NIGHTS.

EXPECT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
12Z MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH 15Z. ATTM...LITTLE PRECIP ANTICIPATED UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES TO PRODUCE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS.

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT WITH THIS ISSUANCE. SE TO S WINDS
SHOULD HOLD JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY. SEAS ARE JUST
BELOW 5 FT IN THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND WAVEWATCH HAS
THOSE SEAS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TOWARD MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE WIND FIELD WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE
PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL SYSTEM (OR REMNANTS) BERYL LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN DECREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
THEN TURN TO NW/N BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...LSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

738 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES EXTENDED FROM SE
MANITOBA TO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL WI AND ERN IA. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSRA HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER NE WI INTO S CNTRL UPPER MI
WHERE A SVR WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR HAVE PUSHED QUICKLY THROUGH NW AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.
ADDITIONAL TSRA HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND OVER THE LK BREEZE AND MOVED
THROUGH N CNTRL UPPER MI INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER AREA OF TSRA HAD
DEVELOPED FROM DLH TO STC AHEAD OF A TRAILING SHRTWV TROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SBCAPE VALUES INTO THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF NE MOVING SHRA/TSRA...EXPECT
CONTINUING SVR POTENTIAL FROM ESC TO ERY THROUGH 00Z. THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EXPECT THE SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE EAST HALF TO DIMINISH/END OVER THE CNTRL/EAST LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE INITIAL FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HOWEVER...PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS
EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
LIFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SCT INSTABILITY SHRA BY AFTN AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SETTLES CLOSE BY. HINT OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
SHOULD ALSO BOOST SHRA CHANCES. WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
(SBCAPE VALUES AOB 200 J/KG) EXPECTED...NO TSRA WERE MENTIONED AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP TUES AFTN
ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AND SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA AS MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFT TO THE NE OF THE CWA. WITH THAT BEING SAID...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING AS THE SFC TROUGH SLIDES S ACROSS THE AREA. THE WRN THIRD
WILL BE UNDER THE STRONGER FORCING FROM THE H925-850 TROUGH AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. THUS...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CHANCES AND LINGERED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. HIGH RES MODEL RUNS PICK UP ON THIS FAIRLY WELL
AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE TRENDS...ALTHOUGH POPS MAY END UP NEEDING TO
BUMPED UP FURTHER. HAVE PUT SLIGHT POPS IN FARTHER EAST NEAR LK
SUPERIOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO TO LINGER INTO
THE FIRST PART OF WED MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA WILL PIVOT THROUGH ON WED...WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON WED AND REMAINS THROUGH THURS.
THE DRIER AIR WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING ON. SHOULD SEE SOME SCT CLOUDS
REDEVELOP WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING AWAY FROM LK
SUPERIOR BUT THEN DIMINISH WITH THE INCREASING DRY AIR. FAIRLY COLD
CANADIAN AIR ALOFT WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND -2C OVER THE AREA AROUND
MID DAY THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
AFTN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WED. DID TWEAK TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE GOING FORECAST
OVER THE INTERIOR W WHERE THE MOST SUN WILL LIKELY BE HAD.
MEANWHILE...COOL NNW FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 FROM MARQUETTE EASTWARD ALONG THE SHORELINE.

LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL OF FROST ON WED NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. PWATS ARE AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL...LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE
HIGH...AND COOL DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LKS. DID BUMP UP FROST MENTION TO AREAS
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST.

SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON WED NIGHT WILL AMPLIFY AN
UPPER WAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON THURS AND LEAD TO A LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. NAM/GFS HINTING AT SOME
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS ON THURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LK BREEZE AREAS AND DID TRY TO SHOW SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AND
LEAD TO LK BREEZES DEVELOPING OFF BOTH LK SUPERIOR/MI.

FOR THE EXTENDED /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MORE SIMILAR TO LATE WINTER AND EARLY
SPRING THAN THE FIRST PART OF JUNE. LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS ON THURS WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LKS ON SAT. 00Z ECMWF NOT AS WRAPPED UP AND
FARTHER N THAN 00Z GEM/GFS. AFTER LOOKING AT THEIR ENS MEANS...A
GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. THIS TRACK WILL BRUSH THE CWA AND COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE ERN PART OF THE CWA ON FRI NIGHT...BUT MAINLY
EXPECT MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.

SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA ON SUN IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ON MON AS SFC LOW DROPS OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. 12Z
GFS HAS PUSHED THIS THROUGH MUCH FASTER AND WILL FOLLOW MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF. IT SHOWS H850-700 Q-VECTOR CONV AND MOISTURE
MOVING THROUGH MON...WHICH WARRANTS MENTIONING A CHANCE OF PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA...ALL TAF SITES
HAVE SINCE LIFTED TO VFR CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TSRA
TO THE WEST OF KIWD. MAIN CONCERN DURING TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT KCMX AND KSAW. MOIST AIR ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
WESTERLY WINDS AT CMX...AND UPSLOPE NORTHERLY WINDS AT KSAW...COULD
BE ENOUGH TO DROP CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR A WHILE.
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. KSAW WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
SHORTLY AFTER WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THEM OUT. MIXING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT KCMX BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KIWD AND KSAW DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER TIMING AND LOCATION OF SET UP IS STILL UNCERTAIN
SO HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AT THIS TIME. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY OVR WRN AND NCNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COULD THEN
REMAIN GUSTY TO NEAR 30 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JMW
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

708 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

FOR THE EXTENDED /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

KCMX...A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH WRLY FLOW.
LIFR FOG/STRATUS AND ISOLD SHRA COULD REDEVELOP BY LATE EVENING WITH
A SHRORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHING THE AREA IN A WESTERLY FLOW BEFORE
LIFTING LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

KIWD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
IN A PREVAILING WSW FLOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY TROUGH/FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KSAW...LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHC FOR TSRA EARLY TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...DRIER WRLY FLOW WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CIGS BLO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

438 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN
MT AND A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS TO NRN SASK. AT THE SFC...A 999 MB
LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SE NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT THROUGH CNTRL
MN TO SE WI WHILE THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH ERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NW KS. LEFTOVER LOWER CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI WERE THINNING OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HAVE KEPT TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. CAPPING WITH SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB WARMING HAS
SUPPRESSED ANY ADDITIONAL TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER THE
CWA. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI BY LATE EVENING
STILL REMAINS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT AND
FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER MN AND
THEN SPREAD TOWARD UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SHRA/TSRA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WOULD BE ARRIVING WHEN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
WEAKER...MUCAPE VALUES STILL IN THE 1K-2K RANGE ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA OVER THE WEST
LATE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

MONDAY...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES FROM NRN MN ACROSS NRN LAKE SUPERIOR
IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER MI REACHING CNTRL UPPER MI AROUND
18Z. WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL NEAR 19C OVER CNTRL UPPER MI...TEMPS
COULD QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER CNTRL UPPER MI AND BOOST MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FORM NE MN INTO
NRN ONTARIO...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG NEAR THE TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
STILL SUPPORT SCT TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLD STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
OR LARGE HAIL. TO THE WEST...MID LEVEL DRYING WITH THE DRY SLOT
SHOULD INHIBIT TSRA CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

THE PERIOD STARTS 00Z TUE WITH A 500MB LOW OVER NERN ND AND A 500MB
RIDGE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO JAMES BAY. THERE WILL BE AN
ELONGATED 998MB SFC LOW FROM NEAR THE UPPER LOW TO ONTARIO BETWEEN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER FAR ERN UPPER
MI...WHICH IS AN AVG TIMING FROM GUIDANCE. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

BY 12Z TUE...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE OPENED TO A TROUGH AND MOVED TO
THE MN ARROWHEAD. THIS BRINGS COLDER AIR AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3C
NW TO 9C SE. BY 00Z WED THE ORIGINAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
ORIGINAL TROUGH O TO FAR WRN ONTARIO. 850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL TO AROUND 0C NW TO AROUND 6C SE BY 00Z WED. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD TUE...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FOR
SOME INLAND SHOWERS.

WED WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA BY 18Z WED...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-2C UNDER NW FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN WED HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND IN THE 50S INLAND.

WED NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO COLD TREND AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS ALLOWS FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE THAT
WILL MAKE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

A SFC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THU THROUGH NEXT SUN...WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A GENERAL
WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TONIGHT AT
CMX/SAW WITH MOIST UPSLOPE E TO SSE FLOW. SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY APPROACH
IWD LATE THIS EVENING AND AT CMX AFT 06Z. OTHERWISE...SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AT CMX/IWD AND IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KSAW. LEFTOVER IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO LIFT TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT NEAR
SRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KT THIS EVENING ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO 25 KTS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVR WRN AND NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
AROUND ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WINDS VEERING
NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COULD THEN REMAIN
GUSTY TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

327 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

THROUGH THE MORNING...NOT MUCH HELP AT ALL FM SHORT RANGE MODELS IN
TERMS OF FCST FOR REFLECTIVITY/QPF...THEY ALL ARE MISSING SOMETHING
OR OVER-EMPHASIZING ANOTHER. IN OUR AREA...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
LATEST GFS. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF HRRR ARE NOT DOING TOO BAD EITHER.

LOOKING AT THE RUC ANALYSIS SPC MESOANLYSIS PAGE INDICATED SHRA/TSRA
OVR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ARE BEING DRIVEN BY H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS. SHRA/TSRA OVR FAR NORTHERN MN ARE MORE
TIED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET PUSHING ACROSS ONTARIO.
CONVECTION OVR CNTRL WISCONSIN SEEMS DUE TO PVA FM WAVE OVR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND H85 TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. FINALLY...INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA STEADILY LIFTING NORTH OF MSP TOWARD IWD AREA ARE WITHIN
H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PVA FM SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN
MN. PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER FOR THE MORNING...SHORTWAVE PRESSES ON
INTO EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN WHILE PRIMARY H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTS
MORE NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...MAINLY IMPACTING MINNESOTA. EXPECT
BETTER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OVR FAR WESTERN AND SCNTRL/SOUTHEAST
CWA...THOUGH WITH THE WAVE AND H85 TEMP ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS WILL
KEEP SHRA/TSRA MENTION OVR ALL CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. LATEST RADAR
SHOWS POSSIBLE MCV WITH ENHANCED LIGHTNING OVER NCNTRL WISCONSIN
THAT IS TRACKING MORE SOUTHEAST THAN EAST. THIS DOES CAST SOME
DOUBT IN HOW MUCH SHRA/TSRA WILL REACH NORTHERN CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK.

BY EARLY AFTN...EXPECT ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA ALONG H85 FRONT TO BE
PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST
AHEAD OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT ALONG WITH SE LOW-LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
WILL KEEP BRAKE ON TEMPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. DIFFERENT
STORY OVER SCNTRL/SOUTHWEST CWA AS WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT INTO THE
AREA BY MID-LATE AFTN. DESPITE LATE DAY ARRIVAL...TEMPS EVEN AT
925-900MB ARE VERY WARM SO WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO BOOST TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S. TEMPS WILL HAVE QUITE THE VARIANCE TODAY FM NORTH
TO SOUTH...WITH KEWEENAW LIKELY STUCK IN LOWER 60S AT BEST WITH EAST
WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR NORTH OF WARM FRONT AND READINGS INTO MID-UPR
80S VCNTY KIMT.

WARM SECTOR TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO DUE TO
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING /H85-H7 AND H7-H3 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND FRONTOGENESIS ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. H85 FRONT STRADDLES FAR NW CWA AND ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FRONT COULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...CWA WILL STAY MAINLY
DRY WITH LACK OF FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION. INCREASED MIN TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 60S WEST HALF WITH DWPNTS PUSHING 60F OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

MEMORIAL DAY FCST IS AN INTERESTING ONE FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
COLD FRONT WILL BE PRESSING INTO THE UPR LAKES DURING THE AFTN.
ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH FRONT THAN NAM/GFS. CANADIAN LOOKS QUICKER
YET. IN THE MORNING...COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERN CWA DUE TO
H85-H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION...BUT MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL TO NORTH AND WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. SFC FRONT SHOULD BE
INTO CNTRL CWA BY 18Z AND SETTLING OVER EASTERN CWA AROUND 00Z
TUESDAY. TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT COULD GET VERY WARM. ISOLD GUIDANCE
/NAMELY THE BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THE ADJMET AND LOCAL HIGH RES
WRF/ INDICATE AREAS IN THE SCNTRL COULD PUSH INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AS
H85 TEMPS START DAY OFF IN THE 17-18C RANGE. REALLY DID NOT ALTER
GOING FCST MUCH BUT DID SPREAD WARMER TEMPS INTO NCNTRL CWA AS SW
FLOW FAVORS GOING WARMER FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS FM BARAGA TO MARQUETTE
AND MUNISING. SHOULD SEE SOLID MID 80S WITH ISOLD LOWER 90S OVR
SCNTRL CWA /IMT TO MNM/. COOLER READINGS IN THE 70S OVR NW CWA WITH
EARLIER FROPA THERE.

SVR POTENTIAL IS OTHER CONCERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVR CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING. MOST GUIDANCE THOUGH IS TRENDING DRIER
ALOFT WITH MOISTURE IN LOW-LEVELS TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG FRONT. ECMWF HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON TRYING
TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING AND STILL INDICATES THAT
WILL OCCUR. MLCAPES FM THE ECMWF ARE PRETTY TAME THOUGH WITH HARDLY
500J/KG REALIZED OVR CWA IN THE AFTN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE
EASILY 35+ KTS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE INSTABILITY TO BALANCE OUT
THIS EFFECTIVE SHEAR. GIVEN SUCH WARM BLYR TEMPS AND MOIST
LOW-LEVELS WITH DWPNTS AROUND 60F AHEAD OF FRONT...RISK OF STORM
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE...BUT STILL SEEMS THAT
BETTER CHANCES REMAIN SOUTH OF HERE WHERE BETTER QUALITY INSTABILITY
RESIDES. SPC FEATURES MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE DAY2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND CERTAINLY CANNOT SAY AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE COULD NOT
OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MON NIGHT...LINGERING INSTABILITY OF 200-300 J/KG OF MLCAPE ALONG
EXITING COLD FRONT COULD SUSTAIN SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO EARLY MON
EVENING OVER E AND SE PORTIONS OF CWA. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

THE UPPER MID-LOW MOVES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WITH 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 5C BY 00Z WED. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STEEPER SFC-700 MB LAPSE
RATES AS THE MID-UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS...THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND ON TUE. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL GET INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
WEST.

SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA WED...KEEPING TEMPS
COOL AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C WED. WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE THU AS 850MB TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND 5C BY
00Z FRI. HIGHS WED WILL BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER FAIRLY STIFF NW WINDS.
LOOK FOR HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SCNTRL.
SFC RDG MOVING OVER AREA WED NIGHT COULD ALSO RESULT IN CHILLY LOW
TEMPS WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AT TYPICAL
INLAND COLD SPOTS. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. HIGHS THU
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. EXPECT MORE WARMING FRI
INTO NEXT SAT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AS MODELS GENERALLY
HAVE 850 MB OF 9-10C BY THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES
MID-UPR RDGG POINTING TOWARD DRY FCST FOR END OF WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TONIGHT AT
CMX/SAW WITH MOIST UPSLOPE E TO SSE FLOW. SOME SHA/TSRA MAY APPROACH
IWD LATE THIS EVENING AND AT CMX AFT 06Z. OTHERWISE...SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AT CMX/IWD AND IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KSAW. LEFTOVER IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO LIFT TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE FALLS OVER WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONG GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVR THE WESTERN
THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN SHOULD DIMINISH WINDS BY LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
REST OF THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO 25 KTS MAY OCCUR ON
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVR WRN AND NCNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COULD THEN
REMAIN GUSTY TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

754 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

AS A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...EXPECT
ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP TO LIFT ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. IT LOOKS
LIKE SHOWERS ARE NOW NORTH OF KIWD AND THEY MAY NOT SEE ANY MORE
SHOWERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH OF KCMX AND KSAW BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW AND MOIST
CONDITIONS FROM RAIN WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW THROUGH MUCH
OF DAY. CONDITIONS MAY EVEN GO TO IFR FOR A TIME AT KCMX DURING
RAIN. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO LIFR OR VLIFR AT BOTH KSAW AND KCMX. APPROACH
OF COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA
AFT 06Z AT BOTH KCMX AND KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

521 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

AS A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...EXPECT ASSOCIATED
BAND OF SHRA AND SCT TSRA TO SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GREATEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THROUGH
12Z. KCMX AND KSAW COULD SEE IFR AND MVFR VIS LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD
DUE TO FOG PRODUCTION FROM THE LAKES BEING ADVECTED INLAND. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT KSAW COULD CAUSE SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS AT KSAW FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ANY SHOWERS/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.P. AND
ALSO FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO BE ADVECTED IN WITH UPSLOPE WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07/JLA
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

146 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH UT/NRN AZ.
AT THE SFC...E TO SE FLOW WAS DEVELOPING BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN
ONTARIO AND A WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL. AREAS OF
CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SRN MN INTO SW WI...CLOSER TO THE 850
MB WARM FRONT. A BAND OF -SHRA...MAINLY SPRINKLES OVER SRN UPPER MI
WAS DIMINISHING AT IT MOVES EAST INTO THE DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

TONIGHT...AS THE UT/AZ SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD NE WY AND WRN ND
AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...THE
SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH. MDLS STILL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL. EXPECT INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION ALONG THE WI BDR AND
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 850 MB WARM FRONT AND
BEST 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. EXPECT INCREASED
MID-LVL DRYING/WARMING TO HELP CAP CONVECTION OVER SRN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE THE AREA...TEMPS
COULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG THE WI BDR BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL (LOWER 60S) OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA IN AN ERLY FLOW AND
ALONG LAKE MI IN A SRLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON...AND WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON.

PERIOD STARTS 00Z MON WITH A DEEP 500MB LOW OVER FAR NE MT AND A
500MB RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SE CONUS...OVER OUR CWA...AND INTO CENTRAL
MANITOBA. AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE A LOW E OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH A
WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE SRN CWA. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING WHEN IT MOVES E
THROUGH THE WEEK.

SUN NIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE SRN CWA TO START
THE NIGHT OFF...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN
NIGHT...BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEING OVER THE CWA /SO REALLY
NO UPPER SUPPORT/ AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER N AND W LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
19C AND SW FLOW...EXPECT WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S
/WARMEST IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/.

MON...ATTENTION TURNS TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE 00Z/26 ECMWF
BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 12Z/26
GFS AND 12Z/26 NAM. PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND NAM
SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE. THIS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA AROUND 18Z MON...THEN
TO THE CENTRAL CWA AROUND 00Z TUE...THEN EXITING THE E CWA AROUND
06Z TUE. THIS WOULD PROVIDE TIME FOR AMPLE HEATING AS 850MB TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND 17C...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
90...WARMEST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL. THERE SHOULD BE AROUND 1000J/KG
OF SBCAPE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1500J/KG.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO BE 60-70KTS...BUT 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE
LOWER AT AROUND 15KTS. IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY DRY THROUGHOUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD ACT TO LIMIT PRECIP. THE NAM SHOWS THE MOST
MOISTURE...BUT THAT ALSO BRINGS AN 850MB JET UP INTO THE CWA...WHICH
THE DRIER GFS KEEPS FARTHER S. TEND TO SUPPORT THE GFS IDEA
HERE...AS THE JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS TYPICALLY BLOCKED BY
ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE S...WHICH LOOKS FAVORABLE GIVEN THE JET
NOSING INTO AN AREA OF HIGH CAPE OVER SRN WI/NRN IL. ALSO...THE
UPPER LOW WILL ONLY HAVE MOVE TO EXTREME NW MN BY 00Z TUE...SO UPPER
SUPPORT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING. STILL...IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM
SOME OF THEM COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THINK THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO PUT IN THE HWO. AS FAR AS POPS
GO...WILL KEEP BELOW LIKELY PERCENTAGES.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING FROM A CWA AVG OF AROUND 9C AT 12Z TUE...TO 6C BY 00Z WED.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS...LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET
POP UP SHOWERS INLAND TUE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL GET INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE E AND CWA...WITH W UPPER MI SEEING HIGHS
IN THE 50S.

SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA WED INTO EARLY
THU...KEEPING TEMPS COOL AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE -1C TO 1C WED.
WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE ON THU...WITH CWA AVG
850MB TEMPS AROUND 5C BY 00Z FRI. HIGHS WED LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 S ON WED...AND IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S THU. THEN
EXPECT SOME WARMING FRI INTO NEXT SAT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON SAT AS MODELS HAVE MORE
WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. PRESSURE
PATTERN RESULTS IN PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING INTO WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
AND A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONG GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVR MUCH
OF WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
ON SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WINDS BY LATER IN THE DAY.
SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS TO
25 KTS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVR
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD THEN REMAIN GUSTY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07/JLA
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/
VERY ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA
WITH A FEW STRAGGLERS AROUND ONAMIA. THE STORMS IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL MN HAVE ALREADY CAUSED SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS. THIS IS ONE
OF MANY CONCERNS FOR THE DAY/NIGHT AHEAD.

A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING
TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SD. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH
THIS MORNING WITH A CAP BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THE HRRR TRIES TO
DEVELOP SOME MINOR CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE MORNING
JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THE
STORMS JUST NORTH OF US MAY TRY AND BACK BUILD.

IN THE AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE SD LOW WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN MN. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
BY 21Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN. ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOGS
SHOW THE MOST CONCENTRATED SEVERE REPORTS FROM SW MN INTO CENTRAL
KS AND PART OF THIS AREA TODAY IS COVERED BY A MODERATE RISK BY
SPC. THE ANALOGS ALSO SHOW NEARLY 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR 2
INCHES OF RAIN AROUND THE TWIN CITIES. THE SREF ALSO HAS 10-20
PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 12 HOURS (TONIGHT) JUST
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES.

WHAT IS REALLY INTERESTING IS THAT THIS WILL BE THE THIRD WEATHER
SYSTEM IN A ROW TO AFFECT OUR AREA WHERE A MID LEVEL LOW WILL
DRIVE NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
LAST WEEK. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST RAINS TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO
FALL OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA THAT SAW 2-5 INCHES LAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES...AS WELL AS POLK
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WI.

VARIOUS WRF/S SHOW THE CONVECTION WANING ONCE IT PASSES I-35
TONIGHT AND POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. SOMETHING
FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONTEND WITH. IN ADDITION...IT WILL BECOME
QUITE HOT AND HUMID OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI TODAY. MIX DOWN IS SHOWING LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR THIS AREA.
COMBINE THIS WITH THE DEW POINT BEING NEAR 70 DEGREES AND THE
HEAT INDEX RISES TO NEARLY 100 DEGREES. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO. ALSO...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES ON MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL WI FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT SPREADING IN DURING THE DAY.
MUCH COOLER WITH SOME SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NO
CHANGES MADE BEYOND TUESDAY WITH CURRENT WEATHER TAKING PRECEDENCE.

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.ISOLD SUPERCELL LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MN WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SFC WAVE(LOW PRESSURE AREA) WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DETEIORATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
500 AND 700 PM THIS EVENING...ONCE STORMS INITIATE. AS THUNDERSTORMS
PROPAGATE EAST...CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO EAST CENTRAL MN
AND WESTERN WISCONIN LATER TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO SWEEP INTO WESTERN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OVER EASTERN SECTION OF
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT 10-20 KNOTS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

KMSP...WILL HAVE SOME PESKY SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN METRO
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE TWIN CITIES AREA AFTER 700 PM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER 200 AM MONDAY WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
HEAVY RAIN AND FOG. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURING THE REST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK/
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KT
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-
DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-
WRIGHT.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR POLK.

RAH/JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

707 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED EAST/WEST ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOW STRATUS WITH CB NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TODAY
THIS WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD...WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MN AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY CENTERED AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE STORMS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER TOMORROW MORNING.

KMSP...PESKY BROKEN DECK SHOULD BREAK UP QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE 3HR
WINDOW FOLLOWING 02Z. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE MODIFIED AS IT BECOMES
MORE APPARENT WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...BUT WENT WITH VCTS DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

/OUTLOOK/
MONDAY...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 15G25KT
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KT
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR POLK.

RAH/JRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

407 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...

VERY ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA
WITH A FEW STRAGGLERS AROUND ONAMIA. THE STORMS IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL MN HAVE ALREADY CAUSED SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS. THIS IS
ONE OF MANY CONCERNS FOR THE DAY/NIGHT AHEAD.

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VERY SHORT DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS IN
CENTRAL MN IN AREA OF VERY STRONG WAA AHEAD OF SFC WARM FRONT. THESE
STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE AXN AND STC TAFS IN THE OVERNITE. MID
LVL CAP MAY BE STRONG ENUF TO HOLD IN S AREAS...BUT SOME CONCERN
WITH VORT MAX WHICH LIFTED OUT OF KS AND IS NOW W OF DSM WHICH MAY
FIRE STORMS IN THE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING ACRS THE PLAINS INTO
S MN. OTHW WRMFNT NOW NEAR IA BORDER WILL LIFT N OVRNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MRNG INTO CNTL MN. THIS WILL FOCUS STORMS FOR SUNDAY WITH
SECOND FOCUS AHD OF CDFNT PUSHING INTO W MN LATE IN DAY.

KMSP...TSTMS IN THE OVRNITE SHUD REMAIN N OF MSP. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS IN THE OVRNITE...BUT IMPRVG CONDS LT TNGHT/ERLY SUNDAY MRNG AS
WRMFNT LIFTS N OF AREA. SHUD SEE SLY GUSTS 25 KTS BY 15Z.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...MVFR-IFR WITH TSRA LIKELY.
MON...MVFR WITH SHRA POSSIBLE.
TUE-WED...VFR WITH PASSING HIGH PRESSURE.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
POLK.

RAH/BAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

324 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL VERY LITTLE
NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS...WITH THE OBVIOUS MAIN ISSUE BEING THE LIKELY ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

18Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PAINTS A WEAK 1002 MB LOW NEAR HILL
CITY KS...WITH A SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
FARTHER EAST...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS SOLIDLY IN THE SOUTHERLY
WIND REGIME AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAINLY
15-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. HOWEVER...KS ZONES ARE AVERAGING
A BIT STRONGER SPEEDS...WITH SUSTAINED CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA DOWN THERE...ANTICIPATE A POSSIBLE SLIGHT
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...AND THUS WILL LET THE
INHERITED WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE AS-IS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH AN EARLY
CANCELLATION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMP WISE...EARLIER
NUDGED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
MOST AREAS...RANGING FROM MID 80S WEST TO LOW 90S EAST AND SOUTH.
SO FAR...THIS SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...DESPITE THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CUMULUS FIELD WHICH AS OVERTAKEN MOST OF THE CWA. ALOFT...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY REVEALS THE
PRIMARY EXPANSIVE SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST APPROACHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ANCHORED BY A CLOSED 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS
EASTERN MT. THE PRIMARY 300MB JET AXIS AROUND 100KT IS STILL TO
THE WEST...EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH FROM WESTERN NEB INTO SD. RADAR
WISE...THERE HAVE BEEN A SMATTERING OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS/MAYBE A
FEW VERY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATING NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY
AMOUNTING TO NOTHING MORE THAN A GLORIFIED SPRINKLE.

GETTING TO THE FORECAST...THE WELL-ADVERTISED AFTERNOON/EVENING
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE PARAMOUNT CONCERN.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING/MODEL TRENDS HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR FROM
THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT FORECAST...WHICH REALLY SEEMED TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS. ALSO AGREE WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK EMPHASIZING THE HAIL/WIND THREAT BUT KEEPING THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL MORE IN CHECK. ONE TREND THAT HAS SEEMED TO EMERGE TODAY
IS SLIGHTLY LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES...WITH THE RAP/RUC
ADVERTISING 0-1 KM MLCAPE VALUES TOPPING OUT MAINLY AROUND 1500
J/KG INSTEAD OF MORE WIDESPREAD 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WITH 0-6KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY INCREASING INTO THE 40-60KT
RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND MID
LEVEL TEMPS GRADUALLY COOLING AS WELL...SHOULD STILL SEE A ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT. LEANING TOWARD THE LATEST RAP/RUC AND HRRR FOR THE
DETAILS...THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME SHOULD FEATURE THE ONSET OF
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT IN EASTERN ZONES THROUGH
00Z...KEEPING SEVERAL COUNTIES BELOW LIKELY WORDING. ONCE STORMS
FORM...A POTENTIALLY MESSY MIX OF INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS AND
QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS SHOULD UNFOLD...WITH INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS
TRACKING NORTHEAST AROUND 35 MPH. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES...AND RESULTANT LCL
HEIGHTS LARGELY IN EXCESS OF 1500-2000M TO START OUT WITH...THINK
THAT INITIAL STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY HAIL/EFFICIENT WIND
PRODUCERS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTNADOES AS SEEN
BACK ON THE 19TH. HOWEVER...AS LONG AS STORMS CAN REMAIN AT LEAST
QUASI-DISCRETE TOWARD 00Z AND TOWARD SUNSET...PARAMETERS DO BECOME
A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAYBE A FEW TORNADOES...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING BRINGING LCLS DOWN CLOSER TO 1000M AND 0-1KM BULK
SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 20-25KT AND 0-1KM SRH POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 150 M2/S2...AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS IS PARTIALLY
IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY BACKING IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW DEEPENING A BIT TO AROUND 997MB IN NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL KS.
FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL...SO MUCH WILL DEPEND ON YET-TO-BE-RESOLVED
DETAILS IN STORM MODE/STORM INTERACTION...BUT OVERALL THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING LONG TRACK OR PARTICULARLY
STRONG. AS FOR HAIL...WILL LEAVE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO BASEBALL
WORDING IN THE HWO...BUT WITH INSTABILITY NOT EYE-POPPING WOULD
TEND TO THINK MOST SHOULD REMAIN GOLF BALL OR SMALLER. CERTAINLY
WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 70 MPH ARE A CONCERN.

SPECIFICALLY GETTING INTO THE EVENING 00Z-06Z PERIOD...KEPT 60-80
POPS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
EXPANDED AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS ALL THE WAY BACK ACROSS THE FAR
WEST...AS THE COLD FRONTAL INVASION APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AS IT STALLS OUT IN RESPONSE TO A GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF THE NORTHWEST KS SURFACE LOW TO AROUND 997MB. THAT
BEING SAID...THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SHARP EAST-WEST GRADIENT
BETWEEN STORMS AND NO STORMS...AND SEVERAL WESTERN COUNTIES COULD
MISS OUT ON MOST IF NOT ALL THE ACTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS WELL...AS STORMS LIKELY
BECOME MORE LINEAR AND THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET ACCELERATES
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AND OVER THE INVADING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE. SHOULD EASILY SEE SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH LOCALIZED 2+ QUITE POSSIBLE AS WELL IF THINGS STALL
OUT AND/OR BACKBUILD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AS HINTED BY THE
12Z 4KM WRF-NMM EXPLICIT REFLECTIVITY.

FOR THE LATE NIGHT 06Z-12Z PERIOD...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES DURING THE 06Z-09Z PERIOD...BUT KEPT
THEM BELOW LIKELY RANGE AT LEAST FOR NOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM/4KM WRF
SUPPORT LINGERING CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS PAST 06Z
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN
STORM-FREE CONDITIONS POST-09Z...AS DRIER AIR INVADES BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. KEPT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS...RANGING FROM LOW 50S FAR WEST TO LOW 60S FAR EAST.

GETTING INTO MONDAY...OTHER THAN BEING A BIT BREEZY...A PLEASANT
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS IN STORE. ALOFT...THE PARENT 500MB CLOSED
LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM THE MT/ND BORDER TO EASTERN
ND...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT TRACKS WELL OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...ALIGNED FROM NORTHERN IL TO NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER
BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CHANGED HIGH TEMPS LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING
THEM CLOSE TO 12Z MET GUIDANCE RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 70S
NORTHWEST TO MAINLY MID 80S SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER FAR SOUTHEAST
AROUND BELOIT COULD STILL REACH UPPER 80S. LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH...AS
NAM-BASED MIX-DOWN TOOLS SUGGEST DEWPOINTS COULD PLUNGE ALL THE
WAY INTO THE 20S IN SOUTH/WEST AREAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASES TO AROUND 700MB. NOT GOING TO GO QUITE THIS LOW
YET...BUT STILL HAVE MOST OF THE CWA MIXING WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S
FOR DEWPOINTS. FORTUNATELY WILL NOT HAVE TO CONSIDER A RED FLAG
WARNING AS OFFICIAL VEGETATIVE FUEL STATUS IS STILL
DEEMED UNFAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH...BUT RH VALUES SHOULD
NONETHELESS DIVE BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
1/2 OF THE CWA. THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO KICK UP
WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS EASILY 15-20
MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS THE TEMPERATURES AT
850MB DECREASE DURING THE DAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE WAVE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CAPE IS GOING TO BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DECREASES AFTER THAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE CAPE
DECREASING LATER...EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
ISOLATED DURING THE EVENING. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN RECENTLY. THE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WHEN THE
UPPER WAVE FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOLER SIDE FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA THAT SETTLES INTO THE AREA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. A
COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SPOTTY PRECIPITATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 112 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/

AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE
SOME DEFINITE CONCERNS WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THIS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS DURING THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME...AND THUS HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY RAIN. ALSO INDICATED A VRB40KT WIND MENTION TO SUGGEST THAT
STRONG WINDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE...AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KT NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALTHOUGH DID NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE LARGE
HAIL POTENTIAL...IT IS THERE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH INDICATING ONLY A
PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW BEYOND 03Z...LATER FORECASTS COULD EASILY
CONVERT THIS TO A TEMPO GROUP AS STORMS COULD VERY WELL LINGER
PAST MIDNIGHT. IN CONTRAST...THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY WILL FEATURE
LEGITIMATE VFR/STORM FREE CONDITIONS...WITH ESSENTIALLY CLEAR
SKIES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT. AS FOR SURFACE WIND TRENDS...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN TURNING
WESTERLY AND INCREASING WITH DAYTIME MIXING ON MONDAY MORNING WITH
GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 24KT.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-017>019.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

244 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL VERY LITTLE
NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS...WITH THE OBVIOUS MAIN ISSUE BEING THE LIKELY ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 112 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL
MOVE IN ON MEMORIAL DAY MARKING A PLEASANT END TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

THIS MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL SEE A DRY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME POSSIBILITY OF VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND IF
STORMS DO FORM THIS MORNING THEY SHOULD BE NON SEVERE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. THE BIG
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR OUR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL
FINALLY KICK OUT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS/COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE CAP TO EASILY BE OVERCOME BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
CAP HAS REALLY KEPT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM COMING OUT TODAY THE CAP OF WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL BREAK AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AN
ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORM TRACK AND TIMING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT GENERALLY AROUND 40 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND BECOME SEVERE SOMETIME
AROUND OR BETWEEN 3 TO 5 PM ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE WEST OF HWY 281. OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES ARE A DIFFICULT FORECAST AS THEY MAY BE JUST FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO MISS OUT ON THE THUNDERSTORMS OR THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY INITIATE RIGHT ON TOP OF THEM AND THEN QUICKLY TRACK
NORTHEAST...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON RAIN/NO RAIN FOR
DAWSON...GOSPER...AND FURNAS COUNTIES.

HAIL AND WIND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD SET UP FOR GIANT HAIL WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF AROUND 50 KTS BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ROTATING SUPPER CELLS WITH STRONG MESOCYCLONES...WHICH COULD BE
VERY EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A GOOD NUMBER
OF HAIL REPORTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW GIANT HAIL
REPORTS TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY
00Z/7PM A VERY STRONG 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS WILL BE
PROVIDING GREAT INFLOW INTO THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS TO WORK TO THE SFC WITH SFC
BASED CONVECTION IN THE AREA.

TORNADO THREAT...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT THE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL LOOK LIKE. ALL MODEL PARAMETERS
LISTED BELOW WERE TAKEN FOR THE VALID TIME OF 7 PM THIS EVENING. THE
06Z NAM WAS INDICATING 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 20 KTS
AND 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 WHICH IS PRETTY MARGINAL.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF WAS GOING WITH 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30 KTS AND 0-1 SRH VALUES OF AROUND 200 M2/S2 WHICH COULD
CERTAINLY GET IT DONE FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THE 00Z GFS PARAMETERS
WERE THE BEST FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITH 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF AROUND 300 M2/S2.
THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT CLOUD BASES/LFC/LCL
HEIGHTS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM WAS GIVING US LCL HEIGHTS OF
AROUND OR A LITTLE LESS THAN 1000M AND LFC HEIGHTS OF AROUND
1500M...WHICH IS REALLY NOT TOO HIGH AND I DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR TORNADOES. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES SHOULD THEY
OCCUR...5-9 PM. A FEW TORNADOES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

MONDAY...THIS WILL STILL BE A BREEZY DAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. IT WILL BE A DRY DAY.

TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE CWA WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MAINLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS
MONTANA AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BEING
INGESTED INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY THURSDAY.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES...AND THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL LIFT IS SUPPORTED BY THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
SHIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP PULL DECENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH AT LEAST LOW TO MID 50 TO EVEN 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO FORM OUT WEST ACROSS NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THE BEST INSTABILITY
AXIS REMAINS FOCUSED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION INDICATING NEAR 2500 J/KG NEAR IMPERIAL NEBRASKA. ONLY
ABOUT 1000 J/KG SLIDES INTO THE WEST BEFORE INSTABILITY DECREASES
WITH NIGHTFALL. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO LIMIT SEVERE WORDING TO
WEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON NEBRASKA TO STOCKTON KANSAS. KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THESE POPS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING TO
EVENTUALLY GET PULLED WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

FOR THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST...AS MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. HOWEVER...SATURDAY COULD
BE INTERESTING...AS THE GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SUGGEST NEAR 3000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-017>019.

UPDATE/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

106 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...
GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...
NEDOR OBS CAME IN AT 1110 PM SHOWING STRONG WINDS SPREADING AS FAR
NORTH AS THEDFORD SO THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED THROUGH
PARTS OF NCNTL NEB. ALSO IT APPEARS WINDS MAY STAY UP PAST 2 AM
UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS OFF. SO THE ADVISORY WILL RUN UNTIL
4 AM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...
WINDS ARE STILL RUNNING QUITE STRONG ACROSS SWRN NEB AS THEY
REFUSE TO DECOUPLE. KLNX VWP IS UP TO 55 KT AT THE LOWEST GATE SO
ANY VERTICAL MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE
WIND ADZY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2 AM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. BUT NOTE THAT THERE IS A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH TOWARD NEBRASKA SO THERE STILL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...
A REPORT FROM AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND NEDOR HIGHWAY CAMS SUGGEST DENSE
FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES. ITS
POSSIBLE THE SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS INTERACTING
WITH THE VERY COOL MOIST AIR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 06Z BASED ON THE 00Z RAP MODEL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 04Z.

NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT
AND ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS UNTIL
05Z. MEANWHILE...NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG HIGHWAY 20...IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 05Z. THEREAFTER...FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

AT 19Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE WARM FRONT HAD MADE
ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO NEAR ORD...BROKEN BOW...NORTH
PLATTE AND IMPERIAL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY HAD A PLUME OF 25MM OR GREATER EAST OF A VALENTINE-
NORTH PLATTE LINE. THE SURFACE LAPS DATA INDICATED VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF AN AINSWORTH-THEDFORD-IMPERIAL LINE
WHERE SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WAS AT OR ABOVE 2000J/KG
AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS AT OR BELOW 60J/KG.

DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS THE IMMINENT
CONVECTION. THEN...FOR LATER PERIODS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN. EVEN AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN STATES AND CANADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAST ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF UPPER SYSTEMS CROSSING
THE AREA ABOUT EVERY 48 HOURS OR SO. BY DAY FIVE...THERE IS ENOUGH
DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS TO UNDERMINE OUR CONFIDENCE
SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

JUDGING FROM THE CURRENT WARM FRONT POSITION...THE NEWLY
DEVELOPING CUMULUS AND THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP VERY SOON ALONG A BURWELL-BROKEN BOW-IMPERIAL LINE
AND INTENSIFY EXPLOSIVELY. THE HOURLY RAPID-REFRESH REFLECTIVITY
LOOP INDICATES THAT. THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD THEN MOVE
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

WIND IS STILL LIKELY TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

BY EARLY TUESDAY...A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND BRINGS ABOUT A RETURN TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
WOULD RAISE THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY
EASTWARD...IT IS POSSIBLE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THAT SCENARIO IS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THUS WE WILL HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

AVIATION...

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH...SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE. NORTH OF THE FRONT...LOW STRATUS IS BLANKETING THE
AREA...WHICH INCLUDES THE KVTN TERMINAL. MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
TO VFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE NOT WARRANTING A MENTION IN THE PREVAILING OR
TEMP FOR THE KLBF TAF...HOW EVER DID MENTION VICINITY. THE ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE NORTH...HOWEVER LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE FOR
KVTN...BUT STILL MENTIONED VCSH...BUT NOT TS YET.

THEN A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
AND LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP UNTIL FRONT GETS FURTHER
EAST...HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANCE DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON CONVECTION
BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ022>027-035>038-056>059-069>071.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1245 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SET UP JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE THE TAF MENTIONS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS MORE DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE WIND
ADVISORY HEADLINES AS WELL AS REMOVE POPS AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...STILL MONITORING STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CO/KS STATES LINES AND THEY APPEAR TO BE
BUILDING NORTHWARD...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST
AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THEY WILL REACH OUR FORECAST AREA
AS LAST RUN OF HRRR PICKED UP ON THEM AND DIMINISHED THIS ACTIVITY
BEFORE TAKING IT ACROSS OUR AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN LIES WITH THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION IN REGARD TO THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR PROFILER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
THE NV/UT BORDER AREA AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST REGION/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LOOKING AT
THE SURFACE...THE DAY STARTED OUT WITH THE WARM FRONT A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER. THIS WARM
FRONT HAS MADE NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...SITTING JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA...AND TOOK A LITTLE LONGER TO
GET OUT OF THOSE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WITH SOME STUBBORN STRATUS
HANGING AROUND THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE REACHED TO AT LEAST THE 90S
CWA-WIDE...WITH REACHING EVEN NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WAS HELPED BY INCREASED MIXING AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

AS EXPECTED...STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE REGION AND WAA CONTINUES...CERTAINLY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...BUT THERE IS
STILL CONCERN THAT AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OVERALL FORCING IS FAIRLY
WEAK...WITHOUT A EASILY NOTABLE DISTURBANCE WORKING THROUGH THE
REGION WHILE THE MAIN SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LLJ DOES DEVELOP THIS EVENING..BUT BEST CONVERGENCE SHOULD
QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. KEPT THE LOW POPS GOING
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...VERY DIFFICULT TO
NARROW IT DOWN TO A SPECIFIC AREA HAVING BETTER CHANCES THAN
ANOTHER...WITH MODELS THAT DO SHOW THINGS DEVELOPING VARYING ON
LOCATION. THERE ARE BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA TO CAUSE CONCERN...THE
DRYLINE ACROSS/JUST TO THE WEST...AS WELL AS THE WARM FRONT...WHICH
ISNT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT COULD COMPLETELY SAY IT WOULD HAVE NO
IMPACT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND WILL KEEP MENTION GOING
AS IS IN THE HWO. POST 06Z...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING WITH MOST
MODELS KEEPING IT QUIET...THOUGH CONFIDENCE CERTAINLY NOT 100
PERCENT. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP/EVOLVE LATER
TODAY AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. WITH THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE...EXPECTING THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY STILL ON TAP TO BE THE BUSIER DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND THERE REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. BY
12Z SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVING MOVED E/ENE...AND CENTER ROUGHLY OVER
WRN/SCENTRAL MONTANA...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THROUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS LOW
CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST...BY 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER ERN PORTIONS
OF MONTANA...AND BY 12Z MONDAY IS STARTING TO OR HAS MOVED INTO
WRN/CENTRAL ND. THE MAIN SFC FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...AND MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT
WITH ITS LOCATION BY 00Z...HAVING MOVED THROUGH ABOUT THE WRN THIRD
OF THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...LARGER SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER EAST AND THE TROUGH STARTS TO SWING INTO THE
REGION. LOWERING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR THE
CAP TO BE OVERCOME...AND EXPECT THINGS TO START FIRING DURING THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AS WELL AS GOOD SHEAR. HWO ALREADY HAD
MENTION OF VERY LARGE HAIL/WINDS AND TORNADOES...SEE NO REASON THAT
POTENTIAL ISNT STILL IN PLACE...BUT HAIL/WIND REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREATS. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLOODING...THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECT THERE TO BE
HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE FACT THAT THE CWA IS PRETTY DRY WILL HELP LOWER
THE THREAT. MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT WAS TO TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND KEEP
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. REALLY
TRENDED DOWN THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA TO LOW CHANCE POPS...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY LOCATIONS LIKE ODX/LXN SEE VERY LITTLE AS THE MAIN
ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THEIR WEST. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO BE A LITTLE
MORE SPECIFIC WITH TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES COMING BETWEEN
21-06Z. BETWEEN 06-09Z ONLY KEPT LINGERING POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM 09-12Z.

LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE NO HIGH CONFIDENCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME YET...THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD MAY BEAR SOME
WATCHING...AS IT CORRESPONDS TO THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH NOTHING LIKE
THE SCORCHER OF TODAY IN SIGHT.

STARTING OFF MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF
ARE IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STORM-FREE AND RATHER PLEASANT PERIOD
FOR THE HOLIDAY...AS THE PARENT MID LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATES
FROM THE WESTERN ND AREA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STALL
OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...TAKING ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY
SOUTH WITH IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN ANTICIPATED...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 700MB WILL PROMOTE A BIT BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 15-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS DURING
THE DAY. FOLLOWED 12Z NAM 2M TEMPS CLOSELY FOR HIGHS...NUDGING UP
NEB ZONES SLIGHTLY MAINLY INTO THE 76-80 RANGE...WITH LOW 80S
COMMON IN KS. WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS AND MIXING...LOWERED
DEWPOINTS AT LEAST 5 DEGREES MOST AREAS. MONDAY NIGHT...LOWERED
LOW TEMPS A SOLID 3-5 DEGREES THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF DRIER
AIR...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...NOW AIMING
FOR UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW 50S SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
FROM KS ZONES DURING THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED AT LEAST 20 PERCENT
CHANCES ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC EAST-WEST FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
STALL OUT AND START TO LIFT BACK NORTH SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS MENTIONED...PULLED THUNDERSTORM MENTION FROM
KS ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE. AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE NIGHT
HOURS...WOULD THEN EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW ELEVATED STORMS TO CREEP
INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POPS IN NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES LIKELY STANDING ON SHAKY GROUND AND COULD BE REMOVED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMP WISE...NUDGED DOWN HIGH TUESDAY A FEW
DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH ALL NEB ZONES SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S...AND
KS ZONES MAINLY LOW 80S.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD LIKELY BEARS THE
MOST WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. IN THE BIG PICTURE...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS PRESENT...WITH A RATHER WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE SLIPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SUGGEST MAYBE UP TO 1000 J/K OR SO
MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AREAS...WHICH IN THE PRESENCE OF 40KT OR SO OF
DEEP LAYER COULD YIELD SOME SEVERE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A SOMEWHAT
DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...AND HAVE POPS AT 40-50 PERCENT
AND HIGHEST WED NIGHT. HAVE HIGH TEMPS WED ONLY RANGING FROM MID
60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...AND POTENTIALLY DEEPENS QUITE A BIT OVER THE
MID-SOUTH PER THE GFS SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE...CONTINUED FORCING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
EASILY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...AND HAVE SLIGHT
POPS ALL AREAS. HIGHS CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS MID
60S TO LOW 70S ALL AREAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST STORM FREE
FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MAY ULTIMATELY NEED SOME POPS
ADDED AS INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE FLOW
TURNS A BIT MORE ZONAL. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE. TEMP
WISE...HAVE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGHS FROM FRI INTO SAT...BUT
STILL STRUGGLING TO REACH 80 EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1141 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.UPDATE...
GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 04Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

WIND IS STILL LIKELY TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

AVIATION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT
/3 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ022>027-035>038-056>059-069>071.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004-
005-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.UPDATE...
NEDOR OBS CAME IN AT 1110 PM SHOWING STRONG WINDS SPREADING AS FAR
NORTH AS THEDFORD SO THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED THROUGH
PARTS OF NCNTL NEB. ALSO IT APPEARS WINDS MAY STAY UP PAST 2 AM
UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS OFF. SO THE ADVISORY WILL RUN UNTIL
4 AM CDT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 04Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

WIND IS STILL LIKELY TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

AVIATION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT
/3 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004-
005-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE STILL RUNNING QUITE STRONG ACROSS SWRN NEB AS THEY
REFUSE TO DECOUPLE. KLNX VWP IS UP TO 55 KT AT THE LOWEST GATE SO
ANY VERTICAL MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE
WIND ADZY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2 AM CDT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 04Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

WIND IS STILL LIKELY TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

AVIATION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT
/1 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ022-056>059-069>071.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004-
005-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

1054 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A HOT AND MUGGY MEMORIAL DAY...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A MUCH
BETTER LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDER WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND RUNS INTO A VERY WARM AND HUMID UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
DRIER FRESH AIR WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT...BUT A
SECOND FRONT WILL STILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1050 PM UPDATE...REMOVED POPS FROM THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WE ARE WATCHING A SHORT WAVE OVER NWPA NOW THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE LAKE PLAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SBCAPES STILL IN THE 1000
TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WE HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT
THE 0Z KBUF SOUNDING SHOWS WE HAVE A MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 800 MB.
STILL FELT SLIGHT CHANCE WAS THE WAY TO GO FROM 05Z THROUGH 09Z
OVER THE LAKE PLAIN DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ACROSS CNY IN THE 07Z TO 10Z TIME-FRAME AS
BOTH THE NEW 0Z NAM AND HRRR SHOW A POSSIBLE MCS TRACKING ACROSS
NNY DURING THIS TIME. FEEL THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WILL BE JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT CHANCE POPS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THIS LOOK GOOD. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY IF THIS MCS FORMS.

615 PM UPDATE...BASED ON DISSIPATING CU FIELDS AND THE LACK OF
ANYTHING ON RADAR CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS. AN INITIAL UPDATE
2 HOURS AGO DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS GOOD. I DID TRIM
POPS BACK TO NOTHING ROUGHLY WEST OF I-81. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CLOUD TOPS ON A LINE FROM NEAR MONTROSE SOUTH TOWARD KAVP MOVING
EAST...OTHERWISE THE CU IS CLEARING OUT AS WE SPEAK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE RADAR CLOSELY WITH SBCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND. OUR LACKING THIRD INGREDIENT...A
LIFTING MECHANISM OR TRIGGER...IS NOT APPARENT. IN ADDITION TO THE
LACK OF A TRIGGER WARM MID LEVELS HAS PUT A NICE CAP ON ANYTHING.
LATE TONIGHT SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN ZONES
MAY BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A POSSIBLE MCS AS H5 SHORT WAVE
MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS CNY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...

2 PM UPDATE...CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVED SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NY ZONES THIS MORNING. GOT SOME REPORTS OF PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL FROM THE STRONGEST CELLS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED WITH A
MESO HIGH BUBBLE OVER THE NE ZONES. BOUNDARY LIES FROM NY/PA
BORDER NW ACROSS STEUBEN COUNTY WITH SCATTER CUMULUS BUILDING OVER
THE HILLS. FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THIS. SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY HELP. IF WE CAN
PASS THE CIN WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AND ARE WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY AS IS SPC FOR THE NEED FOR WATCH/WARNING.

MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WHERE SHOWERS OCCURRED...SO DID CHANGE THE
EXPECTED MAX HIGHS. SHOWERS JUST MADE IT FEEL MUGGIER.

OVERNIGHT SOUNDING SHOW IT STABILIZING IN THE LOWEST LAYER BUT
STILL A LOT OF ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD SOMETHING COME OVER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO TRIGGER IT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
MODELS STILL INDICATE A FAIRLY GOOD SET UP FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE
EVENT ON TUESDAY. NOT QUITE AS MUCH CAPE AS TODAY /MEMORIAL
DAY/...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING WELL TO OUR EAST AND
RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE REMOVED. A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION CAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG...AND DECENT SHEAR...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...ARE
SHOWING SEVERE POTENTIAL. DAMAGING WIND FROM POSSIBLE BOW SEGMENTS
APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CELLS /ESPECIALLY FIRST ONES THAT DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/ FOR MESOCYCLONES AND LARGE HAIL. AS OF 430
PM...STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ENTIRE REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS IN 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
MID 60S YIELDS ANOTHER CASE OF THE MUGGIES.

REMAINDER OF CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST TUESDAY EVENING
BEFORE ENDING...WITH THE REAL COLD FRONT LIKELY PASSING THROUGH
FAIRLY QUIETLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL REALLY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...WELL INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S.
WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SECONDARY FRONT PASSING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ONLY HAVE ISOLATED COVERAGE TO ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS.

BEHIND SECONDARY FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER GOOD 10 OR SO DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY /WHICH WILL
ALREADY BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY/...AND DEWPOINTS WILL PLUMMET WELL
INTO THE 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN...BUT AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SKIMMING BY THE NORTHERN ZONES COULD YIELD A FEW
POSSIBLE SPRINKLES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
105 PM UPDATE...
THOUGH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS...BUT
THERE IS DECENT OVERALL OVERALL PATTERN AGREEMENT. A CUT OFF LOW
MOVES IN FROM EITHER THE PLAINS OR THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT COMES AT US FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. GENERALLY WENT ALONG WITH HPC FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR
SCALING BACK POPS TO JUST CHANCE RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW LONG IT TAKES UPPER LOW TO MOVE
OUT...AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR GETS INVOLVED ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT.
GFS IS DIGS QUITE A BIT DEEPER WITH THE CUT OFF LOW...AND THUS IS
ALSO SLOWER IN THE EVOLUTION OF THINGS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ECMWF
IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE. EITHER WAY...A WET PERIOD IS IN
STORE...CENTERED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONLY QUESTIONS ARE
TIMING ON THE FRONT END FRIDAY...AND THE BACK END SUNDAY. EMBEDDED
THUNDER FROM MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...PARTICULARLY IF THINGS TAKE A MORE NEGATIVE TILT LIKE
THE GFS...BUT FOR NOW WITH HPC LEANING TOWARDS ECMWF...I HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF IT OUT. I HAVE THUS ALSO HAVE GONE WITH THE COOLER
HPC TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL WITH SOME SORT OF CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LASTING PERHAPS EVEN INTO MONDAY. I HAVE CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY...BUT LESS THAN THAT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH LACK OF
CERTAINTY...AND WITH DRIER ATMOSPHERE AS WELL AS RISING HEIGHTS
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z AS TEMPERATURES COOL IN A MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. FOR NOW AM EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT RME/ITH/AVP...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR
AT BGM AND ELM. EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER 13Z
WITH ATTENTION THEN SHIFTING TO THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHWRS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. STILL A BIT DIFFICULT TO
GAUGE EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AFTER 18Z AS A
PRE FRONTAL BEGINS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES TO MENTION THUNDER POTENTIAL DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HRS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN WORKING
THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 00Z. IN GENERAL...A STORMY AND ACTIVE
AFTERNOON APPEARS IN STORE FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW/MDP
NEAR TERM...BMW/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...CMG
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1027 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL MAY BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE ADDRESSES CHANGES TO
CLOUD COVERAGE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS...AND
POP/WX BASED ON RADAR COMPOSITES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY OVERNIGHT. TOO MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FOR ME TO FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH A COMPLETELY
DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT SO SMALL SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES WILL BE
RETAINED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE...MARION...CONWAY TO
SOUTHPORT OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

TD BERYL`S CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA THIS
EVENING...SURROUNDED BY SWIRLING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN OUTER BAND PERHAPS PERIPHERALLY LINKED TO THE CYCLONE IS PUSHING
WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND WESTERN COASTAL PLAIN.
NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST
OF OUR PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR LINGERING CHANCES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE TO MYRTLE BEACH. HERE NEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME OVERNIGHT
AS CONVECTION PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND MAY ADVECT INLAND WITH THE CYCLONIC
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES RANGE FROM 10 PERCENT AT
LUMBERTON...WHITEVILLE AND WILMINGTON...TO 20 PERCENT FROM FLORENCE
TO MARION...AND FINALLY TO 30-40 PERCENT IN THE KINGSTREE-GEORGETOWN
VICINITY.

BERYL IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT A TROPICAL AIRMASS ONSHORE ACROSS AN
INCREASINGLY TROPICAL-LIKE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS MEANS WE CAN EXPECT
PLENTY OF MARINE INFLUENCE WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S
WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE INLAND. BEACHES WILL DO GOOD TO FALL
INTO THE MID 70S TONIGHT NOW THAT OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
80 IN MANY LOCATIONS. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 2-4 AM WITH AREAS MORE THAN 10-20 MILES INLAND FROM
THE COAST POTENTIALLY BECOMING NEARLY OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...BERYL WILL BE MOVING UP FROM GEORGIA ON
TUESDAY AND WILL TRACK OVER CAPE FEAR ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION WITH MAX WINDS UP TO 30 MPH MAINLY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS. ALL MODELS
KEEP BERYL ON A NORTHEAST TRACK RUNNING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST UP
TO HATTERAS AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE RUNNING
THE FARTHEST EAST WHILE THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE GFS REMAINING
CLOSEST TO THE COAST. THE GFS HAS BERYL OVER HATTERAS WED NIGHT
WHILE THE NAM HAS IT JUST EAST OF HATTERAS THURS AFTN. AS BERYL
TRACKS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST...A MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES NIGHT INTO WED AND HELP GUIDE BERYL OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH BERYL TO
PRODUCE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF PCP ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
ON WED. LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST PCP WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
TUES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WED AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
BERYL. INITIALLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO PASS ON SHORE ON TUES IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF BERYL BUT AS BERYL MOVES CLOSER...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO AREA WITH PCP WATER VALUES
REACHING UP TO 2.25 INCHES IN STRONG S-SE PUSH OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 70 THROUGH WED AFTN. BERYL
WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL HAZARDS BUT THE EXTENT
OF THESE WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF BERYL AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO AREA IN DEEP NW FLOW AS
BERYL EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WED NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUES WITH SHOWERY WEATHER
EXPECTED BUT THE MAIN EFFECTS OF BERYL WILL BE FELT ON WED OVER
THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW THU AND FRI WILL INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. 5H TROUGH
DIPPING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRI WILL ENHANCE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE.
SLIGHT CHANCE SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THU GIVEN THE LIMITED DYNAMICS
ALOFT AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DID
BUMP UP POP A LITTLE FOR FRI...BUT STILL IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
KEEPING INHERITED 40 POP FOR FRI NIGHT. STILL A GOOD BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRI/FRI NIGHT FORECAST AS THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
LESS AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN ALOFT WHILE THE LATEST GFS IS MORE
AMPLIFIED AND THUS LITTLE SLOWER. EITHER SOLUTION ENDS UP WITH THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. REGION DRYS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AS
THE PATTERN ALOFT FLATTENS A LITTLE. WEAK 5H RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD
NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPS SAT. AT THIS
POINT THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION IS FAVORED. IT
APPEARS THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SOME FEEDBACK WHICH CAUSES
OVER AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN. THE
RESULT IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MON.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TAF VALID PERIOD
EXPECT TD BERYL TO MOVE TOWARDS THE TERMINALS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANY SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD.

WITH TD BERYL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST A DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAINLY BROKEN MVFR LEVEL LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THE ENTIRE PERIOD...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
SHOWER. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS
AFTER 07Z. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE OF IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS 09-12Z.

ANY IFR CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TERMINAL-WIDE TUESDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE SOUTHERN-MOST TERMINALS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTH SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED...
STRONGEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT WEDNESDAY WHEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CHANCE OF IFR MORNING
FOG THURSDAY MORNING.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LATEST
SEA HEIGHT OBSERVATIONS RANGE FROM 6 FT OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY TO 3 FT AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND SUNSET BEACH
BUOYS...WITH DOMINANT 8 SECOND SWELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730
PM FOLLOWS...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL REMAINS INLAND ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA...BUT
ITS EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD ENCOMPASSES THE CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS...WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT ARE THE DIRECT RESULT OF THE
DEPRESSION. BERYL SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WE ARE
EXPECTING NEARLY STEADY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A RESULT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND SHOULD PUSH NORTHWEST...AFFECTING MAINLY
THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 30
PERCENT EXCEPT PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER EAST OF WINYAH BAY AND
GEORGETOWN.

NOW THAT BERYL IS ONSHORE AND OUR WINDS ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN WERE
OBSERVED OVER THE PREVIOUS 2-3 DAYS...SEAS HAVE FINALLY FALLEN BELOW
6 FT IN ALL OF OUR 0-20 MILE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ZONES. THE LAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM...AND SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 4-5 FT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A GOOD
PORTION OF THAT WAVE ENERGY IN AN 8-9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FLOW MOST OF THE DAY
TUESDAY BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AS BERYL MAKES ITS WAY UP FROM GEORGIA
INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. BERYL WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUES MAKING
ITS CLOSEST PASS TO THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL WATERS WILL
SEE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT AND INCREASING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE
VEERING AROUND THROUGH WED AFTN BECOMING OFF SHORE AS SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY WED NIGHT. THE INITIAL SOUTHERLY PUSH
AHEAD OF BERYL ON TUES WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SEAS FROM 2 TO
4 FT TUES MORNING UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY TUES EVENING. THE GREATEST
INCREASE WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT WITH SEAS REACHING 6
TO 8 FT WITH INCREASING S-SE WINDS IN OUTER WATERS UP TO 20 TO 25
KTS. BY WED AFTN WINDS SHOULD BEGIN OFF SHORE ALLOWING NEAR SHORE
SEAS TO DIMINISH THROUGH WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS THU WILL INCREASE FRI AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KT FRI WHICH COULD...GIVEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUILD SEAS OVER 5 FT LATE FRI. ONCE FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS...EARLY TO MID MORNING SATURDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OR COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
OFFSHORE FLOW SAT LIGHT...AROUND 10 KT...WITH SEAS DECREASING TO 3
FT OR LESS BY THE END OF THE DAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

920 PM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER A FRONT OVER NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON MAY PRODUCE RAIN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

.SHORT TERM...MEAGER LOOKING THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ALONG
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY PROPAGATED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOWER
COLUMBIA/WILLAMETTE RIVER VALLEYS. THE 19Z HRRR DID AN AMAZING JOB OF
SHOWING THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...ALBEIT IT WAS WAY TOO FAST.

A DISTINCT CELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPED OVER
THE VANCOUVER/NORTH PORTLAND AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR...ALONG WITH DIME TO PENNY SIZE
HAIL IN PARTS OF VANCOUVER. ANYWAY...THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TROPICAL LIKE RAINS ACROSS THE METRO AREA HAVE
BEGUN TO WEAKEN...BUT CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS EAST OF SALEM. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME...EXPECT THE WEAKENING TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND
SEND ANOTHER GRID UPDATE SHORTLY. /NEUMAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA IS STREAMING ACROSS NW
OREGON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST. LIGHTNING DETECTION SENSORS HAVE
DETECTED A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE CASCADES...AND EXPECT MORE
TO FOLLOW AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR AND SURFACE HEATING
INCREASES. NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY STEER SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE THE COAST RANGE AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
CURRENTLY AROUND 135W...APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXTENSIVE STRATUS
OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY AND WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH ON MEMORIAL DAY THAT WILL
MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA AND POSSIBLY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY AN UPPER FEATURE AS THE
MODELED SURFACE PATTERN DOES NOT FORECAST A FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH.
THEREFORE ANY SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AT 850MB (~5000 FEET) AND ABOVE WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT TO THE
MOIST AIR MASS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF NW OREGON DRY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER A MOIST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS TO
THE SW WASHINGTON COAST. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH
INLAND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION..BUT AS OF NOW PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE. IF THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE HAPPENS TO FALL ANYWHERE SOUTH FROM THE CURRENT
FORECAST...THEN WED AND THU WILL BE WET RATHER THAN DRY. HAVE
THEREFORE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTION. A SERIES OF STORMS CIRCULATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH RAIN EVERY 2 TO 3 DAYS INTO
NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...AFTER SOME QUICK STRATUS BREAKOUT THIS AFTERNOON...A
FEW TSTMS DID DEVELOP NORTH OF KPDX AND MOVED SOUTH OVER THE
AIRPORT. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. ANY OTHER SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING SHOULD STAY OVER THE CASCADES...WITH
ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY DYING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MARINE STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND TO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...THOUGH MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER. AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
COAST SUN...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING...WITH NO FURTHER TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT THE
AIRPORT. LOOK FOR MVFR STRATUS TO REFORM JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. BROWN

.MARINE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SEAS ARE LOWERING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. EXPECT GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY TURNING THE WINDS SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS ON
SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAKER FRONT WILL BRUSH BY ON MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL LOWER TO THE 4 TO 6 FT BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH SUNDAY. SKT/BROWN

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

252 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT HAS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS
MIXING OUT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ALOFT. SATELLITE INDICATES
CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND EAST FROM MARSHALL MN DOWN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 IS FAIRLY FLAT AT
THIS POINT...HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
CLOUDS ARE A BIT MORE VIGOROUS WITH LIGHT ECHOS ON RADAR. AS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES PINWHEELS NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE AREA
EXPECT WEAK CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA TO BE OVERCOME WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND 22Z. HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH INITIAL
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT EXPECT STORMS TO CARRY A HAIL THREAT...WITH HAIL
UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. CAPE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY
THIN...WITH A NORMALIZED CAPE VALUE AROUND 0.15. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT DROPS FROM AROUND 11K FEET TO
7K OR SO...BUT EXPECT STORMS TO BE FAIRLY LINEAR BY THIS POINT.
STORMS SHOULD BECOME LINEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND ONCE THEY DO SO
TAKE ON A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR ABOVE
600 MB IS RELATIVELY DRY...ENHANCING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WINDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG ALOFT WITH 40-60 KTS ABOVE 700
MB. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO THE TOP OF THE
TROPOSPHERE...IT SHOULD BE EASY TO BRING WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...AND THINK LARGE SECTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FACES A FAIRLY HIGH WIND THREAT WITH STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST STORMS
TO EXCEED 80 MPH. AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINE...EXPECT HAIL THREAT
TO DIMINISH...WITH POTENTIAL OF HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL. SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ABATE FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY WORKING EAST FORECAST
AREA AFTER 05Z. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW LYING STRATUS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 60...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /BT

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BOTH PROVE TO BE BREEZY AND COOLER AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WRAPS UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY AND MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MILDER ON
MONDAY WITH GOOD MIXING SO WENT JUST A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
THE MIXY ENVIRONMENT. RELATIVELY COOL ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WINDS SHOULD NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH SO
STICKING WITH MID TO UPPER 40S SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH COLDER AIR IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER AND IT
WILL STILL BE BREEZY. WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND A
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WILL FEEL FAIRLY COOL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER VERY COOL DAY...ALBEIT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND. REGARDLESS LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S WILL STILL FEEL PRETTY COOL. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT FOR RAINFALL
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. IF THIS SYSTEM IS 3 TO 6 HOURS
FASTER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS COULD EASILY GET STUCK IN THE 50S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY TO EXCEED A
QUARTER OF AN INCH MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR SO. INSTABILITY PRETTY MARGINAL SO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA.

IN THE LATTER PERIODS(THU/SUN)...STILL LOOKS COOL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT ON SUNDAY WITH JUST HOW WARM TO GO BUT OVERALL DECENT
AGREEMENT ON BROAD SCALE PATTERN. LOOKING PRETTY MUCH DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A TAIL END THREAT ON THURSDAY AS WAVE EXITS THE AREA
THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR
RETURNS. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FRIDAY
THEN INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY. /08

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THREAT FOR STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 22Z NEAR AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ROUGHLY EAST OF A BROOKINGS TO YANKTON
SOUTH DAKOTA LINE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...INCLUDING
FSD AND SUX. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE A THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS. MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LAYER OF LOW LYING
STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COMPLEX EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FOR NOW...JUST WENT SCATTERED BUT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE TO
CEILING IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ014.

SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SDZ071.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1045 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND THIS MORNINGS
UPDATE FOCUSES ON EFFECTS. AS OF 14Z...COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AS AS OF 1530Z IS LOCATED FROM
ARLINGTON-SALEM-FREEMAN SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS AREAS WEST OF I-29 WITH
EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING. IF FRONT CONTINUES ON CURRENT PACE...IT
SHOULD PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 22Z AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITATION MAINLY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED POST FRONTAL...SO HAVE
NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR NOW. 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE
CONCERNING AS PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL AS OF LATE ACROSS EASTERN CWA FLASH
FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS REASONABLE BUT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT TO SEE
MORE THAN TWO INCHES IN ANY PARTICULAR AREA. WOULD BE NICE TO SEE
HOW THE HRRR HANDLES FASTER TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GIVEN PROBLEMS OF
12-13Z RUNS...WILL HAVE TO WAIT. UPDATE POSTED.

&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THREAT FOR STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 22Z NEAR AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ROUGHLY EAST OF A BROOKINGS TO YANKTON
SOUTH DAKOTA LINE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...INCLUDING
FSD AND SUX. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE A THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT/
DECIDED TO ADD SOME REAL SMALL POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG A SMALL AXIS FROM YANKTON TO SIOUX CITY...
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TO LUVERNE AND WORTHINGTON MN. CURRENT SATELLITE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ACCAS NOW MOVING INTO S CENTRAL NEB FROM
WESTERN KS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONG
MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP
BUT WITH ELEVATED CAPES NOT THE BEST IN THE WORLD YET...DID NOT EVEN
MENTION A CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

OTHERWISE THE BIG STORY TODAY IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF OUR WELL
ADVERTISED VERY STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST. HEIGHT FALLS ARE
ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG...DEEP LAYER THETA E ADVECTION BEGINNING
AROUND 21Z LATE TODAY. THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN
IN EARNEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD AND
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT AREAS...NORTH TOWARD THE MARSHALL MN AREA.
CONVECTION WILL VERY LIKELY BEGIN AS DISCRETE CELLS AIDED BY A MID
LEVEL FLOW OF 50 TO 70 KNOTS COMING UP FROM KS AND NEB. DUE TO THE
SHORT WAVE...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS IS QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL COINCIDING WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING...THEREFORE
EXPECTING THE CAP TO BREAK DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY AROUND 5 TO 6 PM.
THEN THIS EVENING...STRONG JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA
PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA SQUARELY IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
AIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...COUPLED WITH ML CAPES GENERALLY IN THE
2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS INCREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS TO 50 TO 75 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SPEED
SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG...BUT VEERING PROFILES ARE LACKING SOMEWHAT
COUPLED WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THEREFORE IN
THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...DISCRETE CELLS WILL HAVE
ENOUGH UPDRAFT TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. BUT WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR
OF A STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE AND LARGE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...AGREE WITH SPC THAT THE TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL. AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH THE HELP OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET
STREAK...THE WHOLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL VERY LIKELY MORPH INTO A
QLCS AS IT MARCHES EASTWARD THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES...
TRANSITIONING THE THREAT TO WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN...COUPLED WITH MANY OF THESE AREAS
ALREADY HAVING RECEIVED A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT
AFTER AROUND 2 OR 3 AM AS THE DYNAMICS USHERS AWAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...DID NOT NEED TO ALTER THEM MUCH AT ALL AS
WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT ABOVE THE SURFACE TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST...OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. IN
ADDITION THE STRATUS HAS MOVE NORTH AND WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
ADVANCEMENT.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN HANGING OUT IN THE
ROCKIES FINALLY LIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS BRINGING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR BEHIND A BONAFIDE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER ON MONDAY WITH UPPER 60S IN OUR NORTHWEST...
TO UPPER 70S IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. MIXED LAYER WINDS WILL GIVE
A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTINESS AROUND 30 MPH. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...A SHORT WAVE WILL SWING SOUTHWARD
INTO THIS AREA BEHIND IT...BRINGING IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA ORIGIN WHICH WILL GIVE US A HIGHS COOLER YET ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF STRATOCU WILL BE FOUND WITH THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. BUT AT THIS TIME LEFT ANY MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. BY WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL ONLY HOVER AROUND 60. NOTING THE COOL TEMPERATURES...MAY
NOT BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WINDS
RAPIDLY SLACKEN OFF...BUT ALREADY GOING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
COOLER MOS NUMBERS. /MJF

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OUR AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
RISING HEIGHTS TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS A WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS POINTING TOWARD SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. NOT THE
GREATEST MODEL AGREEMENT ON TRACK/TIMING...SO MID RANGE POPS REMAIN
APPROPRIATE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN A NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...
WARMING TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER. /JM

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ014.

SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SDZ071.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1055 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT/
MAIN UPDATES FOR THE EVENING ARE TO DOWNPLAY THE SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
EVENING HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN STORM TOPS UP TO 40 KFT AND ANY
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION CORE ABOVE ABOUT 25 KFT. ALTHOUGH STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE FORMED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF ENHANCED SURFACE
FRONTOGENESIS INDICATED BY RAP ANALYSIS AND SURFACE WINDS...STORMS
WERE LIKELY ELEVATED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION STILL
PRESENT ON THE 00Z KOAX SOUNDING...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IN SPITE
OF THIS...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HAILER SPIKING UP IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...AND COULD STILL SEE MORE ROBUST
ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN LATER TONIGHT.
THE BEST SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE FOCUSED IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...SO
LIKELY WILL NOT BE REALIZED BY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS
AREA...SO DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP EITHER LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...AND THINK THAT WINDS
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ACCELERATING THROUGH THE INVERSION AS WELL...
SO THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE UP TO 2 INCH HAIL AND POSSIBLY A WIND
GUST UP TO 60 MPH. /LAFLIN

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
STRATUS HUGGING OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER WILL FINALLY LIFT
FROM THE HON AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BRING POTENTIAL STRONG WIND SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT AROUND
1800 FEET INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THREAT FOR STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
THE EAST OF A TYNDALL TO DE SMET SOUTH DAKOTA LINE. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...INCLUDING IN FSD AND SUX. LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT/
STILL A TOUGH CALL ON TONIGHT WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY ALOFT. STILL
A FAIRLY STOUT CAP NEAR 800 MB. RAP SOUNDINGS WEAKEN THE CAP
BETWEEN 4-6 PM...BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. CERTAINLY SOME MASS
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE SURFACE WARMFRONT
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT EVEN SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...ANOTHER INDICATION OF THE STRONG CAP.
HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION THE PAST FEW RUNS
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE AS ITS
INITIALIZATION ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE TOO WARM IN THE MODEL BY
5-10 DEGREES. INCREASING JET ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL AID IN ASSENT
SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET AROUND THE CAP.
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. IT IS
CERTAINLY UNSTABLE ALOFT WITH 3500-4000 J/KG OF CAPE. IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP DOWN SOUTH...AND THAT IS A BIG IF...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THEM TO FOLLOW THE 925 MB FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND AND LOW LEVEL JET...GENERALLY WARMER THAN IT
HAS BEEN MUCH OF THE DAY. /BT

SUNDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE A VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY
WITHOUT MUCH THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 300 PM CDT.
BETTER FORCING WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH THE APPROACH OF A
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE MAIN AFFECTS OF THIS
WAVE WILL BE FELT FROM ABOUT 21Z THROUGH 9Z AND WILL HIT THE POPS
THE HARDEST DURING THIS TIME. WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT/DRY LINE MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM AROUND A
BROOKINGS TO YANKTON LINE EAST. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME BUT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT IN PARTS OF
PIPESTONE AND MOODY COUNTIES AS WELL AS EASTERN
WOODBURY...CHEROKEE...CLAY IOWA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES. BELIEVE THAT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO GET AN INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL WHICH
COULD SET A FEW CREEKS/STREAMS AND RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS IF IT
FALLS IN THE RIGHT SPOT. THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WITH HE COLD FRONT ALOFT MOVING IN THROUGH
THE DAY THE CAP WILL WEAKEN QUITE A BIT AND FROM ABOUT 22Z ON WILL
BE DIFFICULT NOT TO SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS STORMS DEVELOP THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG SFC BASED CAPE AND MODERATE 40 KNOT OR SO BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0 TO 3KM AND 0 TO 6KM LAYERS. WHILE THE 0 TO 1KM BULK SHEAR IS
TO POSSIBLY BE UP AROUND 20 KNOTS THE DIRECTIONAL ASPECT IS SEVERELY
LACKING WITH FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SO LIKELY LOOKING AT THE THREAT FOR HALF
DOLLAR TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND BY ABOUT 9Z OR
10Z LIKELY BE EAST OF THE CWA. COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR WILL
ADVECT IN SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK COOL AND BREEZY AS WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW KEEPS DRY AND MIXY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 40S
TO NEAR 50.

TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE COOL DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

IN THE LATTER PERIODS(WED/SAT)...TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED. WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE MUCH ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF JET MAX...SO WILL LEAVE MID
RANGE POPS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE LOOKING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BASICALLY PLANNING ON 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 70 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. /08

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE HEAT TODAY...THEN IF STORMS OCCUR
IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND/OR MONDAY.

CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES AND RIDGING FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SUBTROPICAL STREAM OF
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGING HAS
FADED QUITE A BIT AND PUSHED EAST. ALL MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW IS
MOSTLY CONTAINED WITHIN THE WESTERN TROUGH. IN-BETWEEN THE TROUGHING
AND RIDGING...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OF 40-60 KT IS PRESENT AT
850MB PER PROFILER DATA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. ON THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET...CONVECTION EXISTS
FROM NORTH DAKOTA EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WARM AIR ON THAT
LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. AT 00Z...850MB TEMPS
WERE 15C AT MPX AND 24C AT OAX...BUT THE RAP NOW SUGGESTS THESE HAVE
CLIMBED TO 20C AT MPX AND STAYED THE SAME AT OAX. THIS WARM AIRMASS
IS ALSO STRONGLY CAPPED AS SEEN ON THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED JUST EAST OF RAPID CITY WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ALONG I-90 ALL THE WAY TO LA CROSSE. SOUTH
OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH A 65-70F
DEWPOINT MAXIMA AREA OVER IOWA. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 60-65 ARE
PRESENT SOUTH OF I-70.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA BY 12Z MONDAY.
CONTINUED STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH
WILL HELP PROPEL THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
PERHAPS BY 15Z. ALL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z...WITH CAPPING THEN IN
PLACE FOR ALL OF TODAY TO YIELD A DRY DAY. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS HOW
WARM WE WILL GET AS WELL AS THE DEWPOINT FOR FIGURING OUT HEAT
INDICES. THE CORE OF THE WARM 850MB AIR SEEN OVER OAX IS FORECAST
TO BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 18Z...WITH READINGS OF
20-22C. STRAIGHT MIXING THESE DOWN...WHICH SEEMS DOABLE GIVEN PLENTY
OF SUN AND A BREEZY SOUTH WIND...YIELDS HIGHS OF 92-97F WHICH IS
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING AND THE LATEST RAP RUNS WHICH
HAVE PERFORMED THE BEST IN ABOVE NORMAL SITUATIONS. THESE ARE CLOSE
TO RECORDS. REGARDING DEWPOINTS...THE MAXIMA AREA OF 65-70F OVER
IOWA THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FORECASTING QUITE WELL. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
THE DEWPOINTS END UP FALLING TODAY...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MIXING
DRIER AIR DOWN FROM ALOFT AND THE ADVECTION IN OF DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE SOUTH. AS SUCH...MAYBE MID 60S DEWPOINTS IS THE MOST WE SEE AT
TIME OF PEAK HEATING. COMBINATION OF THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WOULD
YIELD MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95-100...JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HEAT ADVISORY AS A RESULT...BUT HAVE
MENTIONED THE HEAT SITUATION IN HWO AND WEB SERVICES. MEANWHILE...TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA...EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MANY THINGS GOING FOR
IT...INCLUDING HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...CONVERGENCE ON
THE FRONT...AND PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BY 00Z...THIS
CONVECTION...LIKELY SEVERE...SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PUSH EAST...ANTICIPATING THE CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PROCESS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
SLOW...SINCE THE FRONT PARALLELS THE 500MB FLOW. 06-12Z TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT
IN SEEING STORMS... THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THE CONVECTION FALLS
APART AS SUGGESTED BY THE 27.00Z HIRES ARW RUN. IF CONVECTION
SURVIVES...HARD TO SAY IF IT WILL STILL BE SEVERE...DUE TO
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. PLENTY OF SHEAR
EXISTS...SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME GUSTY AND PERHAPS
DAMAGING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE IS VERY LOW. WARM NIGHT
ANTICIPATED TOO WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES MORE OF AN EASTWARD
TRACK DURING THIS PERIOD COMPARED TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH THE CORE
OF IT IS STILL PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO BY 12Z
TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER FLOW GETTING A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO IT DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE A LITTLE QUICKER TO THE EAST. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL AT LEAST BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OR POSSIBLY EVEN THROUGH AS SUGGESTED BY THE 27.00Z
GFS. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL WE SEE WITH THE FRONT.
SQUALL LINE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE FALLEN APART BY 12Z. IF THIS
IS THE CASE...WHICH HAS SOME PRETTY STRONG MODEL SUPPORT...THEN WE
HAVE TO WAIT FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE AGAIN ON THE FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY. RIGHT NOW...THE ONLY
AREA POTENTIALLY OF SEEING THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE SAY FROM CLAYTON
COUNTY UP INTO JUNEAU/ADAMS. IF THE FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA AT 00Z
LIKE THE 27.00Z GFS SUGGESTS...ALL OF MONDAY COULD END UP DRY. HAVE
KEPT ONLY 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THE MORNING AND CONFINED THE
AFTERNOON CHANCES TO THE AREA DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY. THESE ARE CAPPED
AT 50 PERCENT TOO. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY
SLOT SHOULD HELP CLEAR THINGS OUT. DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY
TOO BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AIR IN
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO 5-10C BY 12Z TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...AFTER A STILL WARM MONDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED
A COUPLE DEGREES UP TO COME BETTER IN-LINE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE...PLAN
ON TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
AREA...WITH THE CORE OF IT LIFTING TOWARDS JAMES BAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CORE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS COULD FALL TO 3-8C BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY PER A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND...OR PERHAPS ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO NEAR 0C IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA PER THE 27.00Z
NAM AND 27.03Z SREF. IN ANY EVENT...THIS COOLER AIR COMBINED WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD RESULT IN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY NORTH OF I-94...DEEPER INTO THE UPPER
TROUGHING. HAVE KEPT SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER DAY ANTICIPATED. SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL A LITTLE MORE. LOWS IN THE 40S
LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

27.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE MEAN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SHOWING
TROUGHING TO STAY PUT OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THIS TROUGHING IS ENHANCED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY...CARVING OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN SEEMS TO BE TOO
DEEP AND IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH
TROUGHING...WHICH 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...DEFINITELY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO END UP
BELOW NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE TOWARDS SATURDAY THE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH
EAST...ALLOWING MODERATION BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE MORE PROBLEMATIC. YESTERDAY IT SEEMED LIKE THE BULK IF
NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WOULD END UP DRY. TODAY...THERE ARE
CONCERNS ABOUT SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH THE TROUGH PRODUCING
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES ARE FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THAT POTENT SHORTWAVE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE THAT DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.
OVERALL...MUCH MORE REMINISCENT OF A WINTER SITUATION. NO
INSTABILITY PROGGED SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY ON PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP...CHANCES ARE
KEPT IN THE 20-30 RANGE. FARTHER OUT...LEFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY DRY AS THE COOL AIR AND SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER TROUGHING
SHIFT EAST.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

SCATTERED /5-6K/ CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS DRIER
AIR FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THE SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUST TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 27.18Z
AND 27.20Z. FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EXPECT THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUST TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 27.20Z AND
27.22Z. ALL OF THE WIND GUSTS WILL COME TO AN END BETWEEN 28.00Z AND
28.02Z.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 28.09Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST PREVALENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. WITH THE LOSS
INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL WANE 28.12Z.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

547 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE HEAT TODAY...THEN IF STORMS OCCUR
IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND/OR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
547 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR SOUTH
WINDS AT 12 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 28 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KRST. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER
THE TAF SITES AT TIMES TODAY WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 15-25 KFT
RANGE. A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT KLSE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK IN. PLAN ON
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT BOTH TAF SITES. A COLD
FRONT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL AS THEY APPROACH KRST. HAVE INCLUDED -TSRA MENTION AT
KRST STARTING AT 10Z. LOOK FOR CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO AROUND 4KFT
AT KRST LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVES IN.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY WEST OF KLSE THROUGH 12Z.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 12Z...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KLSE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE HEAT TODAY...THEN IF STORMS OCCUR
IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND/OR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.AVIATION...
1055 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

THE BULK OF THE EVENING CONVECTION HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES...STAYING FOCUSED ON THE 850 MB FRONT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...THE WARM FRONT WAS MAKING QUICK PROGRESS
NORTH...NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AT LATE EVENING. THE SFC BOUNDARY
SHOULD TRACK NORTH OF KRST/KLSE BETWEEN 10-12Z...SHIFTING THE WINDS
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

AS THE FRONT GETS NORTH ON SUNDAY...AMPLE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUTOFF MUCH TO ALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THAT
SAID...A LOT OF INSTABILITY A LOFT...AND IF A SHORTWAVE WOULD TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA...SOME SHRA/TS MIGHT DEVELOP. MODELS DON/T INDICATE
THAT THIS IS LIKELY...HOWEVER. SO...EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS.
IT WILL BE BREEZY ON SUNDAY...WITH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

ANOTHER POINT OF NOTE WITH THE FRONT...SOME HINTS VIA A FEW OF THE
MODELS THAT MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN SOME
LOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. OBS AND FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME OF THIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE GOPHER STATE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH EITHER WAY...AND WILL
OPT TO STAY VFR FOR THE MOMENT. THAT SAID...FEEL KRST HAS THE
GREATER THREAT FOR IFR CIGS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED VERY

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION......RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

446 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT OVER COASTAL CONNECTICUT...WILL LIFT NORTH THIS
MORNING...AND MERGE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
TRI-STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SENDING A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SW CT COAST BACK SE
INTO THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST TO
THE N OF THIS FRONT UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WHEN A
COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND THE FRONT LIFTING N ALLOW FOR THE
FOG TO DISSIPATE. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG
TO INCLUDE ALL OF SW CT AND COASTAL SE CT. WILL NOT INCLUDE
EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY FOR NOW...AS THE AREA IMPACTED IS VERY SMALL.

ALL MODELS OTHER THAN THE HRRR AND ECMWF ARE OVER DOING THE EXTENT
OF SHRA/TSTM EARLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE OUTLIERS
IN THIS CASE...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST INTO MID MORNING.

AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR
MAINLY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SHRA/TSRA BECOMING LIKELY N AND W OF NYC BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY IS VERY LOW...DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW
VALUES OF SHEAR...ONLY 15-25 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...DOWNDRAFT
CAPES OF 800 J/KG OR LESS AND LOW LEVEL JET OF 15-25 KT OVER THE
INTERIOR - MINIMIZING THE SEVERE WIND THREAT...AND WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 11000 FT MINIMIZING THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE LOW
VALUES OF SHEAR ALSO HELP KEEP BULK RICHARDSON VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50...AND IN SOME CASES WELL ABOVE 50...PROMOTING MAINLY
PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH FORECAST CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -8 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ISOLATED PULSE
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF NYC. HAVE PUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS IN FOR AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 HPA NEAR
THE COAST...850 HPA INLAND...WITH MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. FORECASTING VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - WITH
A FEW AREAS IN THE NYC METRO GETTING TO OR RIGHT ABOVE 90. WITH
DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 60S...EXPECT HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...THIS COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE
WARRANTS LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BULK
SHEAR INCREASE TONIGHT...FORECAST TO 35-45 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH
BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20-40 LATE. AS A
RESULT...COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED STORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
OVER EASTERN ZONES BEFORE THE 700 HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS. ALSO WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 OVERNIGHT...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF MET
GUIDANCE...BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. THIS YIELDED LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES CATCHES UP TO/MERGES
WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTM ALONG AND AHEAD
OF IT. WITH BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT...1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE...AROUND 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE...AND BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 85-90 KT 300 HPA JET...DO HAVE A BETTER
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THAN TODAY...WITH BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBERS GENERALLY FROM 20-40 - SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR MULTI-
CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SUPER-CELLS. HOWEVER...WE ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW- MID LEVEL CAP...THAT MIGHT NOT HAVE ENOUGH
FORCING TO OVERCOME...AND THUS COULD REMAIN DRY.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 825 HPA
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...950 HPA NEAR THE COAST...MAV/MET GUIDANCE
AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THE RESULT IS HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT
INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN
FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP CLOSE TO TODAY/S READINGS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
BROAD GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC TROUGH TO START THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND RESULTANT
SURFACE LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. THE IMPACT FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE A FEW FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
EAST BY THU MORNING MORNING AND WITH BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY WANING DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON WED...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

AT THE SAME TIME...NHC FORECASTS TRACK TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL TO
PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. REFER TO
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS. THIS SHOULD MAINLY PRESENT THE REGION WITH A SUNNY AND
WARM DAY WITH GUSTY NW FLOW ON THU BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND BERYL.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRI...WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THEN MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A PHASING OF PAC AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN A CLOSED UPPER LOW OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEEKS END. MODELS DIVERGE IN EXACT
TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF THE
RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACT ON THE REGION. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...SO KEPT FRI DRY. GFS
IS MUCH SLOWER THAN EC WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING ON SAT.
INSTABILITY EXTREMELY LIMITED FRI NIGHT SO HAVE EXCLUDED
THUNDER...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES
FROM MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INCREASES
SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS BROAD TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.

RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

STRATUS/FOG REMAINS ACROSS SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. KGON AND KBDR
ARE EXPECTED TO OBSERVE LIFR OR IFR AT BEST OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE ISP COULD FALL TO MVFR. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...AND CANNOT
RULE OUT MVFR OR IFR VSBYS. NYC METRO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR.

ANY FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATE BY 14Z. GENERALLY VFR TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
WILL MENTION JUST SHRA FOR NOW...HOWEVER THREAT OF THUNDER WILL
CONTINUE...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION ANY TIMING IN THE TAFS.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. AFTER 14Z...COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
EXPERIENCE SOUTHEAST WINDS...WHEREAS WESTERN TERMINALS REMAIN SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING
WITH ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...

.TUE NIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.WED...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

.WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING...VFR.

.FRI AFTERNOON-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.

.MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE
EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 10 AM.

WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN RUNNING 1-2 FT HIGH...SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF 5 FT SEAS TO TONIGHT. BEFORE THEN...THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE NY BIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING ON ALL WATERS. COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING
25-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG MARINE LAYER
THOUGH...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
ACTUALLY MIX DOWN. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER
IT APPEARS THAT 5 FT SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

FOR NOW HAVE HELD ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OVER ESTIMATING OF
WAVE HEIGHTS BY WAVEWATCH - INCLUDING IN A SIMILAR SITUATION A
COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHERE IT CALLED FOR 5-6 FT SEAS ON THEY NEVER
GOT ABOVE 4 FT...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO PUT ONE UP.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5 FT THU NIGHT/FRI AS THE
REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. UNCERTAIN WHETHER A
LONG PERIOD SWELL WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP PUSHING SEAS ABOVE
CRITERIA SO HAVE KEPT THEM JUST BELOW FOR NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN FRI NIGHT BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED
SLY WINDS THROUGH SAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD
TO SCA LEVELS SAT AND SUN.

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF
RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH+ POSSIBLE. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN
FLOODING AS A RESULT. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT...SO
SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IF STRONGER
STORMS DO TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 1/2
TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340.

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...24/MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/MALOIT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

411 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

ALL MODELS OTHER THAN THE HRRR AND ECMWF ARE OVER DOING THE EXTENT
OF SHRA/TSTM EARLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE OUTLIERS
IN THIS CASE...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST INTO MID MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRI...WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY.

STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. HOW FAR WEST THE
STRATUS MOVES REMAINS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. KGON
CONTINUES TO OBSERVE LIFR OR IFR AT BEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
KISP GOING DOWN TO IFR OR WORSE.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT MANY TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR OR
IFR VSBYS. NYC METRO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR.

FOR TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES
FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY REMAIN
SOUTHEAST...WHEREAS WESTERN TERMINALS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...

.TUE NIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.WED...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

.WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING...VFR.

.FRI AFTERNOON-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 1/2
TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340.

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...24/MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/MALOIT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1233 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE HRRR HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION IN OUR CWA AND IS
PRETTY GOOD WITH SOME OF THE PERIPHERAL CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS
EVENING. BASED ON ITS LATEST RUN THE NY TSRAS SHOULD BYPASS US TO
THE EAST AND THE WRN PA CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
ARRIVING. OTHERWISE BASED ON THE CURRENT DEW POINTS, IT WILL BE A
WARM NIGHT AND NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
AND ANOTHER HOT HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR MANY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 90 ONCE AGAIN WITH HEAT INDICES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST
APPROACHES, THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS AND SPC DOES HAVE OUR NORTHWEST ZONES UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

500MB AND SFC TEMPS: TROUGHING EVOLVES IN THE EASTERN USA THIS WEEK
WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY TEMPERATURES BECOMING NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

ONE OTHER NOTE: LOW PROBABILITY THAT IT NUDGES 90 ON WEDNESDAY AND
IF IT DOES...AND IT REACHES 90 TOMORROW...WE WOULD THEN HAVE OUR
FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON AT KILG AND KPHL.

THURSDAY...COMFORTABLY DRY AND VERY NICE WITH WEAK HIGH PRES AND
A GUSTY NW-N BL FLOW - PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW. FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
0900 OR 1000 UTC. AT THAT TIME...MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT RIGHT NOW IFR CONDITIONS LOOK UNLIKELY.

AFTER 1300 UTC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IMPINGING
ON KRDG AND KABE...AND THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NEW
TERMINAL FORECASTS. THE THREAT ARRIVES A BIT LATER AT THE KPHI METRO
AIRPORTS (GENERALLY BETWEEN 2200 UTC AND 0200 UTC). GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS).

FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THIS
COULD DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY
LOCATION THAT GETS A THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP IN FOG. AFTER 0600 UTC...MOST PLACES WILL PROBABLY SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS LOOKS LOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT W WIND
WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES EXPECTED KACY/KMIV. SMALL CHC LATE DAY SHOWER
IN E PA.