Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/27/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

858 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.MID MORNING DISCUSSION UPDATE...
FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED. PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE DAY ARE THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL AND
ACTUAL SNOW LEVELS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LESS
THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST THOUGH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING MAY HELP SQUEEZE
OUT EXTRA PRECIPITATION.

.EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...
THE NEGATIVE 3 TO 4 500 MBS ANOMALY CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR THE
CA/ORE BORDER AT 09Z...AND IS FORECAST TO DROP SWD OVER INTERIOR
NORCAL TODAY. THE NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROF
AND THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW EAST OF THE COASTAL RANGE
QUALIFIES IT AS AN "INSIDE SLIDER". LITTLE RETROGRESSION IS
FORECAST AS THE LOW DROPS INTO SOCAL...THEN ROTATES EWD ON SAT...
SALVAGING THE LATTER PART OF THE BIG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

UPPER JET ENERGY DIGGING SWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW IS
DRIVING THE 2ND AND STRONGER VORT MAX ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT ROTATES INLAND BY MID DAY. THE SHOWERS AND CUMULIFORM
CLOUDINESS OFF THE COAST SHOULD ALSO BE ROTATING INLAND WITH THIS
VORT MAX BY MID DAY. THE AMSU TPW DATA SHOW THE DIGGING UPPER JET
FORCING THE HIGHER PW AIR WWD OVER THE ERN PAC...THUS THIS VORT
MAX MAY BE LOSING A LOT OF ITS MOISTURE TAP...ALTHOUGH A "TONGUE"
OF HIGHER PW IS WRAPPED NEWD FROM BAJA/SOCAL INTO THE DESERT SW.
ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE AWHILE...THIS PW MAY BECOME ENTRAINED INTO
THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION AS IT DROPS SWD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE INITIAL VORT MAX IS TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS THAT
BEGAN AROUND KBLU BUT NOW ARE MOSTLY IN WRN NV...AND WE LOOK FOR
ANOTHER SOURCE OF LIFT MOISTURE.

THE 2ND AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS SEEN IN THE IR IMAGERY AS
COLDER CLOUD TOPS N/NE OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION. AS THE UPPER
CIRCULATION DROPS SWD...SO SHOULD THE BAND OF ENHANCED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. THE HRRR-3KM PRECIP FORECAST DROPS THIS PRECIP INTO THE
SHASTA CO AREA BY 18Z FRI. SINCE THE HRRR IS ONLY AN HOURLY 13 HR
FORECAST WE EXTRAPOLATE THAT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SWD TODAY...SO
WILL THE BAND OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONG VORT MAX WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRI
AFTERNOON...THE 5H COLD POOL AROUND -24 DEG C WILL BE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOUT 8-10 DEG C/KM UP TO
500 MBS. THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (EL) BARELY IS FORECAST TO REACH 20
KFT FRI AFTERNOON SO THESE WILL BE VERY LOW-TOPPED CELLS. THE HIGHER
SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AT NIGHT AND GENERALLY NOT DURING
THE TIME OF CONVECTION IN THE VALLEY...OTRW WE WOULD BE EXPECTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING CELLS. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTORMS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NE QUAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND UNDER THE COLD POOL...FROM THE
COASTAL RANGE EWD INTO THE SIERNEV.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THAT COMBINED WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO 5 KFT OR SO...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH FRI EVENING. 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW IS
FORECAST TO FALL DURING THE PERIOD ABOVE 6000 FT. THE WARM GROUND IS
EXPECTED TO MELT SOME SNOW ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER SNOW LEVEL
ELEVATIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE SIERNEV
INTO SAT KEEPING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS GOING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE SOME 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT WE HAVEN`T
GONE AS FAR AS FORECAST RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS AT OUR MAIN CLIMO
SITES. USUALLY...THE MAY SUN WILL SHINE LONG ENOUGH DUE TO BREAKS IN
THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO KEEP THE RECORDS FROM BREAKING.

IN THE WAKE OF TH DEPARTING CLOSED LOW ON SUN...WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE WLY FLOW AND ACROSS NORCAL SUN/MON.
THESE SYSTEMS MAY SPREAD SOME CLOUDINESS OVER NORCAL AT TIMES...BUT
ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SUN AND THE MEMORIAL
DAY HOLIDAY.

5H HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE WRN STATES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH MAXES
IN THE 90S IN THE VALLEY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W...THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BACK OVER THE SIERNEV FOR
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEXT FRI. JHM

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW MON INTO TUE WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TRACKING THROUGH NORCAL. WITH MAIN DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH LOWER
80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY MONDAY AND MID 80S TUESDAY. RIDGING
PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NORCAL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH WARMING
AMS. OPER GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LOW OFF THE CAL COAST WED AND LIFTS IT
NORTH ALONG THE COAST THU. ECMWF-HIRES AND GEM NOT SHOWING THIS
FEATURE AND DPROG/DT FOR THE GFS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOWING WEAK RUN
CONSISTENCY. THUS FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH 70S TO 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.AVIATION...

MOUNTAIN AREAS IFR/OCCASIONAL MIFR WITH SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 050 AGL AND NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS 25 KNOTS OVER RIDGES.

SACRAMENTO VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING ABOVE 6000
FEET FOR THE WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WESTERN PLUMAS
COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

339 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SHORT AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

THE NEGATIVE 3 TO 4 500 MBS ANOMALY CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR THE CA/ORE
BORDER AT 09Z...AND IS FORECAST TO DROP SWD OVER INTERIOR NORCAL
TODAY. THE NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROF AND THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW EAST OF THE COASTAL RANGE QUALIFIES
IT AS AN "INSIDE SLIDER". LITTLE RETROGRESSION IS FORECAST AS THE
LOW DROPS INTO SOCAL...THEN ROTATES EWD ON SAT... SALVAGING THE
LATTER PART OF THE BIG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...

UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTH STATE TODAY WILL BRING CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOST OF INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
GENERALLY REMAINING VFR TAF SITES BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AOB030.
IFR/OCCASIONAL MIFR OVER MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
SNOW LEVEL AROUND 050 AGL. NORTH TO WEST WINDS TODAY 5 TO 15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER RIDGES.

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING ABOVE 6000
FEET FOR THE WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WESTERN PLUMAS
COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

946 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012

FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNING AND ALLOWED RED
FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE OVER FORECAST AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012

TONIGHT...STRONG WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING. SATELLITE...ANALYSIS AND THE RUC SHOW THE FRONT THROUGH
CENTRAL UT AND APPROACHING KSLC. THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO
THE FLOW ALOFT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. PROJECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE MOAB AT 430 PM...GRAND
JUNCTION AT ABOUT 600 PM...RIFLE AT ABOUT 700 PM AND ASPEN/VAIL
ABOUT 800 PM. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH
FROPA AND BEGIN DECREASING ABOUT AN HOUR AFTER FROPA. THE RED FLAG
WARNING AND HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE PROBABLY UNTIL
EXPIRATION TIME. VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS BEING PRODUCED BY THIS
SYSTEM IN CO OR UT...ONLY CLOSE TO THE LOW CENTER OVER EXTREME
NORTHERN UT. HAVE DECREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN AS A RESULT.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RELAX...THOUGH THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD
OVERPOWER THE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE VEERING TO BECOME
WEST-SOUTHWEST. ON SUNDAY THE MAIN LOW WILL PASS FAR NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AND
BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE AREA
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR UP NORTH
WILL ADVECT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES. ON
MONDAY... ANOTHER VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRUSH
THE FAR NORTH ON MONDAY BUT CARRY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT FOR
MAINLY JUST SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTH OF I-70. IT WILL ALSO
KEEP SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS PRESENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH TEMPS STARTING A
WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012

TUESDAY...ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT CRUISES
ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...BUT IT SHOULD BRING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS ONCE
AGAIN. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DURING THESE PERIODS...TODAY`S GFS
IS FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WITH TUE NIGHT`S WEAK SHORTWAVE STAYING
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. JUST A REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO
BRUSH OUR NORTHEAST CORNER THROUGH EARLY WED. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER CA/NV BY THU. THE 12Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY`S 12Z EC AS IT DEVELOPS A LOW OFF NORTHERN BAJA
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. HOWEVER TODAY`S 12Z EC PUTS
THIS LOW FARTHER TO THE EAST. THE CANADIAN ALSO SHOWS A SIMILAR
PATTERN...BUT HAS THE MOST WESTERLY SOLUTION. THE OTHER DIFFERENCE
FROM YESTERDAY...IS THAT THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS JUST
NOT AS AMPLIFIED IN TODAY`S RUNS. MODELS PRETTY MUCH AGREE THAT WE
WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THU NIGHT
AND PROBABLY INTO FRI. THEN THE FLATTENED RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
THROUGH SAT. MODELS INDICATE THAT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE RIDGE WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY
BASED THUNDERSTORMS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...FAVORING THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL READINGS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER ALL TAF SITES...HOWEVER WIND GUSTS TO
30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. VISIBILITY
WILL IMPROVE OVER ALL TAF SITES AS DUST IMPACTS DIMINISH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE BETTER TONIGHT DUE TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH STILL ONLY MODERATE IN MANY PLACES DUE TO
THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NO WHERE
NEAR THE WIND OF TODAY. ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EARLY
NEXT WEEK APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MPM
SHORT TERM......CC
LONG TERM...... JAD/ELH
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER... MC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

746 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATING TO LET HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT...WITH STRONG
AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STANDUP COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE STATE...AS WELL AS THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND STRONG
MIXING. RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 PM FOR ZONES 221
AND 222 WITH CURRENT RHS IN THE 5-10 PERCENT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. -MW

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.

A STRONG UPR LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACRS ERN ID AND WRN WY TONIGHT...AND MOVING INTO EASTERN MT
BY SUN AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE AREA WL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND WL THEN DECREASE. HOWEVER...MANY AREAS WL CONTINUE TO SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THAT UPR LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE STRONG WINDS...AND
LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS IN TELLER AND FREMONT COUNTIES AND OVER
THE RAMPART RANGE WL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE EVENING IN THESE AREAS...SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE.

THIS AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS NR THE KS BORDER HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...BUT THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 SHOW THE DRY
LINE WITH LOWER 50 DEW POINTS BACKING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF CO THIS EVENING...WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
800 J/KG. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35
KTS. SO WL KEEP IN ISOLD TO SCT POPS OVR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
THE HRRR ALSO KEEP SOME PCPN CHANCES IN THAT AREA UNTIL AT LEAST
06Z. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE A SEVERE STORM OUT
THERE WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTS NR 60 MPH.

ONE MINOR CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THAT IF THE WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT...THE TEMPS COULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING.

ON SUNDAY THE UPR TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS CO...WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. IT AGAIN
LOOKS LIKE WIND AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA
OVER TELLER AND FREMONT COUNTIES AND THE RAMPART RANGE...ALONG WITH
THE CONTINUED DRY FUELS...THUS WL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO
A RED FLAG WARNING.

WITH THAT TROF BRINGING COOLER AIR OVR THE AREA ON SUN...HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER. THAT SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROBABLY BRING SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL CO MTS SO WL LEAVE
THAT IN THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM
PASSES ACROSS MT AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRUSHING THE STATE TO
THE NORTH AND PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE SOME BRISK WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THEN RELAXES FOR TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT OR
NORTHERLY SURGE IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS MON
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE DRY AND A NON-PLAYER IN THE
EXPECTED TEMPS...SO LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE PLAINS...AND IN THE 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY MT REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN SYSTEM DROPS DOWN INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE US...AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DESERT US. LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST FRI IS EXPECTED TO
KEP AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SOME CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND E PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. 27

AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH
25 TO 35 KTS GENERALLY AT THE TAF SITES...AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS.
THESE SHOULD DECREASE THRU THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
AT KCOS AND KPUB TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT KALS WL HAVE REDUCED VSBY
THIS EVENING DUE TO BLOWING DUST. ONCE THE WINDS DECREASE THE
BLOWING DUST WL STOP...PROBABLY BY 02-03Z AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ON
SUNDAY FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY 20-30 KTS AND
SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-060-
065>071-073>076-080-082-084>089-093>099.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ221-222.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ221-222.

23/23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

1055 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2012

.UPDATE...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS PALMER
DIVIDE AND LINCOLN COUNTY AREA LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST SHORT
RANGE TRENDS INCLUDING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ANOTHER BAND OF
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER CLOUD TOPS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN COLORADO.
THIS TRAJECTORY TAKES MOST OF THIS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ANOTHER
BATCH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SPREADING NORTHWARD. AREAS CLOSER TO THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
BORDERS WOULD SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. HAVE ADDED A LITTLE THUNDER
TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

.AVIATION...THERE SEEMS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z
FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION. THIS IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SEEN.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2012/

UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING A BOUNDARY MOVING WEST ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS IS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT NOT DOING
MUCH TO TEMPERATURES. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
INCREASING LIFT HAS PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. WILL HAVE LOW POPS FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR
THIS. HRRR SUPPORTS THIS AS IT SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL BE. ADJUSTED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS AND ALSO
TWEAKED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND MOST OF FRIDAY
ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. WINDS MAY CYCLONE AND TURN NORTHERLY ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS. LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM 07-09Z WITH CEILINGS 2500 TO
4000 FEET. LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BELOW 6000 MAY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2012/

SHORT TERM...CURRENT RADAR PICTURES ARE SHOWING A BATCH OF SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET MAXIMUM NOW OVER THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
COLORADO. THE SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE CONTINUING
AS WELL. MODELS SHOW THE JET MAXIMUM TO BE OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING AT
06Z TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 70 TO 90 KNOT RANGE.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE
CWA OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW A SURGE OF UPSLOPE TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. ON
FRIDAY...THE NAM HAS EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLIES ON THE GFS. FOR MOISTURE...THE
NAM SHOWS QUITE A BIT DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...THE GFS
SHOWS LESS. THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKS AROUND ON THE NAM FOR
FRIDAY...THE GFS IS DRIER ON FRIDAY. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH 40S...EVEN
LOWER 50S F ON FRIDAY. THERE IS NO CAPE PROGGED FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS SOME OVER THE PLAINS...MORE
SO ON THE GFS. THE NAM LAPSE RATE FIELDS HAVE A STRONG LOW/MID
LEVEL STABLE LAYER OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS PRETTY
STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING THIS SAME TIME. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BORDER
THIS EVENING...THEN A BIT MORE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THERE IS A TAD OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDER AGAIN. SO THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY CONCERNING
THE COLD AIR SURGE...UPSLOPE...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. I BELIEVE A
BIT MORE IN THE NAM IN THAT IF A SURGE MOVES IN...IT USUALLY MAKES
IT TO THE FOOTHILLS ANYWAY. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 20-40%S
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BORDER AREAS. ON
FRIDAY...WILL GO WITH 10-20%S FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IT MAY
BE TO STABLE FOR STORMS HOWEVER. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS
ON THE NAM ARE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH THE NORTHEAST CORNER BEING
COLDER. THE GFS SHOWS A 5-10 C WARM-UP FROM TODAY`S. AGAIN...WILL
LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE NAM.

LONG TERM...FOR FRIDAY EVENING...FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO GREAT BASIN. SOME WEAK LIFT
PROGGED OVER REGION...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. BOTH NAM
AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL PLAINS ADVECTING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BOTH BOUNDARY LAYER PROGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS ALREADY IN GRIDS AND
LOOKS REASONABLE. AIRMASS LOOKS A BIT TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SO OPT TO DROP FROM GRIDS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH JET EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH ACROSS PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FLOW TO
USHER IN WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND COMBINING WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IT APPEARS THAT THE
RECENT BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION HELPED INCREASED THE FUEL MOISTURES.
FOR NOW WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HILITES. MODELS SHOW
SOME MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK QG ASCENT SLIDING ACROSS MOUNTAINS...
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THERE. AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY
FOR CONVECTION ACROSS PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT TO WEAKEN SATURDAY EVENING
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO HEAD INTO WYOMING. SHOULD
SEE SURFACE WINDS DECREASE AS A RESULT.THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL QG ASCENT...THOUGH MOST TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA.
WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SOME OVER THE RIDGES. THE UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING SUNDAY WITH BASE OF TROUGH AFFECTING
NORTHERN COLORADO. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS REGION WITH COOLER AIR ALONG WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE. BOTH
NAM AND GFS DEPICT MID LEVEL QG ASCENT OVER AREA DURING THE
MORNING...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY SUBSIDENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY DURING THE MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
SHOW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA. COMBINATION OF THE
LIFT FROM WAVE AND UPSLOPE BEHIND FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. GFS LOOKS MORE ROBUST
WITH STRENGTH OF TROUGH AND AMOUNT OF UPSLOPE THUS MORE
PRECIPITATION DEPICTED. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS PLAINS BECOMES SOUTHEAST WITH FLOW ALOFT REMAINING NORTHWEST.
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FOR SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT DIA UNTIL ABOUT 09Z.
AFTER THAT...CEILINGS COULD GET DOWN TO 3000 FEET AGL. THE WINDS
ARE WILL LIKELY GO TO UPSLOPE (030 OR 040) AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING.

HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BE LIGHT THE NEXT 24
HOURS...NOTHING OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

757 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.AVIATION...

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COASTLINE BETWEEN FLAMINGO AND
CHOKOLOSKEE. VCSH WAS LEFT IN THE TAF FOR THIS EVENING FOR NAPLES
ONLY. WIND FLOW MORE FROM SW ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD FOCUS EARLY
AFTERNOON TSTMS CLOSER TO E COAST. INCLUDED VCSH SHOWERS AFTER
SUNRISE FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AND NAPLES ON SUNDAY. FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AND INCLUDED VCTS AFTER 18Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
HOWEVER, ITS OVERALL ORIENTATION IS RESULTING IN A BIT OF LINGERING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
LOW LEVELS. DESPITE THESE FACTORS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST. IT APPEARS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
SHOULD WORK TO KEEP THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST MAINLY DRY WITH THE
STEERING FLOW TAKING ANY STORMS TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST. H5 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND -10C AND WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT, STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. 20-30
POPS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR MOST AREAS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF, WHICH SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END AFTER 00Z, BUT COULD LINGER IN
A FEW AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, BUT MAINLY OVER
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS, PARTICULARLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.
OTHERWISE, AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND PERHAPS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST, SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 06Z.

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TOTAL ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, H85 WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTION
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BERYL (OR ITS REMNANTS) WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE PUSHING WEST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
ULTIMATELY TAKING A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST SOMETIME MONDAY.
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS EVEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY, WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTH AND EAST.

WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID
WEEK PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THIS VERIFIES, A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT SATURDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
IT.

AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING ONSHORE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND GULF COAST SEA BREEZE ABOUT TO BEGIN
MOVING ONSHORE AS WELL. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ON FAR OUTER EDGE OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. EXPECTED
MOVEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION TO THE SSW-SW MEANS THAT SOME TSTMS
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO FLL-MIA AREA TERMINALS TO WARRANT A
VCTS MENTION THROUGH 03Z, BUT FEEL THAT TSTMS SHOULD NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT THESE SITES. SAME APPLIES FOR KAPF ALTHOUGH GULF COAST HAS
A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS THAN THE EAST COAST. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WITH PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS/FOG INTERIOR TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WIND FLOW
MORE FROM SW ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD FOCUS EARLY AFTERNOON TSTMS
CLOSER TO E COAST. /MOLLEDA

MARINE...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL PUSH A NORTH-NORTHEAST
SWELL INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
IT STILL APPEARS THE SWELL WILL PEAK AROUND 3 FEET OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND PATH OF BERYL. CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALSO DETERIORATE WITH INCREASING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 87 73 87 / 20 50 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 88 74 87 / 20 50 40 40
MIAMI 74 89 73 88 / 20 40 30 40
NAPLES 74 89 74 88 / 20 30 30 40

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...15/JR
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

710 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DECREASING AND SHOULD END BY MID
EVENING WITH ONLY EXTREME S FLA AND W OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AFFECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH
SOME LIGHTNING. ZFP UPDATE WILL BE TO ELIMINATE THE 1ST PERIOD AS
NO CHANGES TO TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

IN THE MARINE ZONES...LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHT BUT WATERS OFF OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY PRIMARILY MAY BE AFFECTED IN LATER PERIODS MAINLY
BY POSSIBLE NORTHERLY SWELLS BEING GENERATED BY BERYL AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WSW TOWARD THE N FLA COAST. FOR THE EVENING PACKAGE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO S FLA WATERS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT WATERS
OFF OF PALM BEACH MAY REACH 6 FEET AND THE SWELLS MAY INCREASE THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO MODERATE WITH A SLIGHT RISK AT THE BEACHES
OF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES SUNDAY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
HOWEVER, ITS OVERALL ORIENTATION IS RESULTING IN A BIT OF LINGERING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
LOW LEVELS. DESPITE THESE FACTORS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST. IT APPEARS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
SHOULD WORK TO KEEP THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST MAINLY DRY WITH THE
STEERING FLOW TAKING ANY STORMS TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST. H5 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND -10C AND WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT, STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. 20-30
POPS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR MOST AREAS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF, WHICH SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END AFTER 00Z, BUT COULD LINGER IN
A FEW AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, BUT MAINLY OVER
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS, PARTICULARLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.
OTHERWISE, AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND PERHAPS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST, SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 06Z.

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING ONSHORE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND GULF COAST SEA BREEZE ABOUT TO BEGIN
MOVING ONSHORE AS WELL. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ON FAR OUTER EDGE OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. EXPECTED
MOVEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION TO THE SSW-SW MEANS THAT SOME TSTMS
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO FLL-MIA AREA TERMINALS TO WARRANT A
VCTS MENTION THROUGH 03Z, BUT FEEL THAT TSTMS SHOULD NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT THESE SITES. SAME APPLIES FOR KAPF ALTHOUGH GULF COAST HAS
A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS THAN THE EAST COAST. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WITH PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS/FOG INTERIOR TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WIND FLOW
MORE FROM SW ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD FOCUS EARLY AFTERNOON TSTMS
CLOSER TO E COAST. /MOLLEDA

.MARINE...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL PUSH A NORTH-NORTHEAST
SWELL INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
IT STILL APPEARS THE SWELL WILL PEAK AROUND 3 FEET OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND PATH OF BERYL. CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALSO DETERIORATE WITH INCREASING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 87 73 87 / 20 50 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 88 74 87 / 20 50 40 40
MIAMI 74 89 73 88 / 20 40 30 40
NAPLES 74 89 74 88 / 20 30 30 40

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...15/JR
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

248 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL ENTITY BY LATE
TONIGHT. A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING JUST
WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. MEANWHILE, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE THIS FEATURE HAS
AIDED IN LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATERS, SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST, POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED
TO 10-20 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WITH A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT, ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND
LOCAL MESO-SCALE EFFECTS. THE HRRR SHOWS THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AND PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BY 21Z. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR EVEN
MARGINALLY SEVERE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELL MERGERS. STRONG WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR.
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CONTINUING TO ADVANCE INLAND,
LITTLE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END AFTER 00Z, ALTHOUGH
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WHILE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN BE
STRONG, ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER CONSISTENT AND SHOWS THE
DEVELOPING WARM-CORE LOW COMING TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT WILL THEN
SLOW AND ULTIMATELY GO BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AND H85 WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, CONVECTION MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE POSSIBLE WARM-CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
WEAKENED, BUT WILL ONLY SLOWLY PUSH BACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. SO WHILE THE
BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH, A RATHER
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY PREVAIL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE CLIMO.

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS
DEVELOPED AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS
AND THEN THEY COULD DRIFT BACK CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST TERMINALS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO DEVELOP
AT KAPF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS.

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A SMALL SWELL MAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH
COAST, BY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS
THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A POSSIBLE WARM CORE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON LOCAL MARINE
CONDITIONS.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 87 74 88 / 10 30 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 87 75 88 / 10 30 20 40
MIAMI 75 88 74 89 / 10 30 20 40
NAPLES 74 91 73 90 / 30 30 20 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...14/MJB
AVIATION/RADAR...55/CWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1011 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
739 PM CDT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY...BUT SLOWLY
BECOMING LESS LIKELY THIS EVENING.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS WITH OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OFFER LITTLE IF ANY HELP...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO LIVE IN THE OBSERVATIONAL WORLD.

LATEST THINKING CONTINUES FROM EARLIER THINKING...THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING WITH CURRENT COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE CHANCES SHIFT NORTH AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME
FRAME. SO HAVE NOT ADJUSTED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WAS
DEBATING BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SOME
HIGH RES MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING WEST OF
OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND THEN TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
WITH 14 DEGREE AIR AT 700MB PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND LATEST 00Z
DVN SOUNDING SHOWING A DECENT CAP IN PLACE...I AM FINDING IT HARD
TO BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. ALTHOUGH...THERE ARE SEVERAL
OTHER FACTORS WHICH ARE LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THIS POSSIBILITY
MIGHT NOT BE TOO FAR FETCHED. AS THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH WITH OUTFLOW/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION...COULD
FOR SEE CURRENT MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTERACT WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND BOUNDARY TO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION. THEN WITH A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...AN INCREASING
LLJ COULD HELP FOCUS ANY CONVECTION INTO SOME TYPE OF COMPLEX.

ALTHOUGH...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS AS IF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS
WINNING. SO...WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAVE FORECAST AS IS BUT CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATEST TRENDS AND UPDATES.

RODRIGUEZ

.DISCUSSION...
338 PM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH A WARMING TREND STILL ON TRACK
AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.

ONGOING CHANGES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE WARM
FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH AREAS NEAR STERLING IN
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS SOUTHEAST TO AREAS NEAR KANKAKEE. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S NORTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH
THIS EVENING WITH STEADY IF NOT WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS...PAVING THE WAY FOR A WARM NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
CONTINUE WITH MAIN THERMAL AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY
BRINGING 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C ACROSS THE CWA. THIS COINCIDING
WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING OF SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL ALL AID IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S ON SUNDAY...WITH STRONG FLOW KEEPING ANY LAKE BREEZE AT BAY
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT NOT
QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER ISSUES WITH SURFACE WAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

AFTER A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED EAST ACROSS
AREAS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...THE CWA HAS REMAINED
MOSTLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS DRY TREND THUS FAR...STILL
FEEL THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TO OBSERVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STILL AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT REMAINING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY AS BEEN
USELESS WITH MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO GENERATE CONVECTION WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN NONE...AND MOSTLY LIKELY NOT BE. DESPITE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
AND SURGE OF GOOD MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY NORTH...WARMING ALOFT
HAS LIMITED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING
THAT 700MB TEMPS OF 10-12C ARE PUSHING OVERHEAD...WHICH IN THE
ABSENCE OF BOTH GOOD SURFACE LIFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...HAS
LIMITED ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THIS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH THE SHOWERS WHICH HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ACROSS
IOWA...WHICH ARE ALREADY DISSIPATING. FEEL THAT THE ONLY CHANCE
FOR THE CWA TO OBSERVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS AND
FEEL THAT THIS IS THE AREA WHICH MAY HELP STEER CONVECTION
SOUTHWARD. AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THIS COULD PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WHICH COULD THEN INTERACT WITH A NORTHWARD SURGING
WARM FRONT. SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
COMPLEX HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO SEEM
PROBABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC DETAILS COMING INTO BETTER LINE.
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH COULD HELP FEED THIS DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN
HELP STEER ANY CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT
WERE TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AN
OUTSIDE WIND AND HAIL THREAT COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AS STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN. RIGHT NOW...THIS IS THE LOW END SOLUTION
BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RODRIGUEZ

.CLIMATE...

...RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MAY 27TH...

529 PM...CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH AT ORD OF 96 ON
SUNDAY...MAY 27TH. THE ORD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 94 SET IN
1911.

THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF 96 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN CHICAGO IS ON
MAY 31ST 1934 WHEN A RECORD HIGH OF 98 WAS REACHED. THUS...IF THE
TEMPERATURE DOES REACH 96 OR HIGHER ON SUNDAY MAY 27TH...IT
WILL BECOME THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR.

CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH OF 95 AT RFD ON SUNDAY...MAY
27TH. THE RFD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 92 SET IN 1978.

A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR THE
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS BELOW. DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...REACHING RECORD HIGHS ON MONDAY IS
STILL POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN REACHING RECORD HIGHS
ON SUNDAY.

RECORDS FOR ORD...
HIGH TEMP/YEAR HIGH MINIMUM TEMP/YEAR

SUN MAY 27TH 94/1911 75/1911
MON MAY 28TH 93/1977 74/2006

RECORDS FOR RFD...

SUN MAY 27TH 92/1978 71/1914
MON MAY 28TH 93/2006 69/2006

RODRIGUEZ

.FIRE WEATHER...
451 PM CDT

AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS
EVENING...IT WILL HELP USHER A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS AND MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
DESPITE HIGHER MOISTURE AIR SHIFTING NORTH...COULD STILL OBSERVE
SOME LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND THE 35 PERCENT AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS STRONG
MIXING AND HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH...NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE TOO STRONG IN THESE
LOCATIONS WITH 20FT WINDS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF AT 10-15MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TEMP AND DEWPOINT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM. NONETHELESS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30-35 PERCENT ARE STILL EXPECTED. STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WITH 20FT WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 20MPH.

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TURNING SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

* VERY MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN THE AREA INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.

* BARRING ANY INFLUENCE FROM ANY NEARBY CONVECTION EXPECT SOUTH
WINDS TO START SUNDAY BECOMING GUSTY 20-25 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...

WINDS BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. CHANCES FOR TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ARE VERY LOW...PROBABLY NOT QUITE ZERO...BUT VERY LOW.
WARM AIR ALOFT SEEMS TO BE INHIBITING THINGS THOUGH
RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWS SOME ACCAS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER AND TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA. MAIN CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT COOL OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY COULD
WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH THE SURFACE WINDS WITH THEM TURNING
NORTHEAST AGAIN IF THIS HAPPENS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS FOR NOW BUT MID SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. STILL THINK THAT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.

MDB

FROM 00Z...

TRICKY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CONCERN FOCUSED ON
TSRA POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY...NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES WITH A SURGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS HAS SUPPRESSED MOVEMENT OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TO JUST NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES TO JUST NORTH
OF IKK AND RZL. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING IS CURRENTLY LACKING. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL AIR IS VERY WARM AND MAY INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR. CONFIDENCE AND OVERALL POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ANYTHING IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR WITH SUNSET.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH IN
SPEED LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT WILL DICTATE THIS AS WILL ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOPS BUT HAVE
DECENT CONFIDENCE THIS WILL BE THE CASE. ASSUMING THE DRY FORECAST
PLAYS OUT THEN SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START SUNDAY. ANY
CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY AFFECT WIND DIRECTION AND OUTFLOW FROM
CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS COULD DO THE SAME.
REGARDLESS...WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OUT TOWARDS RFD.

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT POTENTIAL FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
IS VERY LOW.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS SUNDAY. NEED TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW FROM STORMS WELL TO THE NORTH MAKING IT
INTO THE TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING WINDS NORTHEAST...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 30 KT. CHANCE OF
TSRA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...VFR.

MDB

.MARINE...
247 PM CDT

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND
WESTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN NORTHEAST TO SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...
LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT NORTH AND BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY EVENING WHILE THE LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT DUE TO THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
AREAS BUT DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE COOL WATER UNDER
VERY WARM AIR...PREVAILING SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 15-20KT.

THE LOW MOVES TRACKS EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST TO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY WINDS DROP OFF TO 10 KT OR LESS AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH APPROACHES.

TRS

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

754 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
739 PM CDT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY...BUT SLOWLY
BECOMING LESS LIKELY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS AS IF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS
WINNING. SO...WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAVE FORECAST AS IS BUT CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATEST TRENDS AND UPDATES.

RODRIGUEZ

.DISCUSSION...
338 PM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.CLIMATE...

...RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MAY 27TH...

529 PM...CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH AT ORD OF 96 ON
SUNDAY...MAY 27TH. THE ORD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 94 SET IN
1911.

CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH OF 95 AT RFD ON SUNDAY...MAY
27TH. THE RFD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 92 SET IN 1978.

RECORDS FOR ORD...
HIGH TEMP/YEAR HIGH MINIMUM TEMP/YEAR

SUN MAY 27TH 94/1911 75/1911
MON MAY 28TH 93/1977 74/2006

RECORDS FOR RFD...

SUN MAY 27TH 92/1978 71/1914
MON MAY 28TH 93/2006 69/2006

RODRIGUEZ

.FIRE WEATHER...
451 PM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING THEN TURNING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST.

* AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING.

* BARRING ANY INFLUENCE FROM NEARBY CONVECTION EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO START SUNDAY BECOMING GUSTY 20-25 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND
AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS SUNDAY.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 30 KT. CHANCE OF
TSRA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...VFR.

MDB

.MARINE...
247 PM CDT

TRS

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

710 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...
338 PM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.CLIMATE...

...RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MAY 27TH...

529 PM...CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH AT ORD OF 96 ON
SUNDAY...MAY 27TH. THE ORD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 94 SET IN
1911.

CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH OF 95 AT RFD ON SUNDAY...MAY
27TH. THE RFD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 92 SET IN 1978.

RECORDS FOR ORD...
HIGH TEMP/YEAR HIGH MINIMUM TEMP/YEAR

SUN MAY 27TH 94/1911 75/1911
MON MAY 28TH 93/1977 74/2006

RECORDS FOR RFD...

SUN MAY 27TH 92/1978 71/1914
MON MAY 28TH 93/2006 69/2006

RODRIGUEZ

.FIRE WEATHER...
451 PM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING THEN TURNING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST.

* AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING.

* BARRING ANY INFLUENCE FROM NEARBY CONVECTION EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO START SUNDAY BECOMING GUSTY 20-25 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND
AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS SUNDAY.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 30 KT. CHANCE OF
TSRA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...VFR.

MDB

.MARINE...
247 PM CDT

TRS

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS. ACTIVE JET CONTINUES TO
ROUND PACIFIC NW UPPER LOW AND EXTENDS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS JET SEGMENT AND SUBTLE ENHANCEMENT OF UVM
EJECTING FROM UT INTO NE/KS...WHICH HAS AIDED WEAK SRN NE ELEVATED
CONVECTION. PRECIP ALSO NICELY REFLECTED IN RAP 305K ISENT SFC WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOWER RH FOCUSED INTO THIS AREA. WEAK
KINEMATIC FORCING WILL PERSIST AND LIFT NWD WITH JET AND BUILDING
RIDGE LATER TODAY AND WILL ALSO DRAW INCREASED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING
NWD ON LEADING EDGE OF MUCAPE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
PHASING OF UVM AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE SEEMS WEAK THIS MORNING...SO
NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT POPS SW IN CASE SOMETHING DRIBBLES INTO
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER FORCING MECHANISMS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
BY AFTERNOON WITH 00Z ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOWING SHARPLY INCREASED
H85/H7 THETA-E ADVECTION INTO IA BY 00Z. THIS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED
BY VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS.

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE FROM NE INTO THE HEART OF IA WHICH
WILL KEEP MIXING REDUCED TODAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OR LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE MIDWEST THE FRONT WHICH MOVED
THROUGH US YESTERDAY WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN MISSOURI ACROSS
IOWA. 0-3KM SHEAR INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL AND LOOKING
AT SOUNDINGS THERE IS A 50-70KT JET OFF THE SURFACE AND IT IS
ACTUALLY TO A PRETTY GOOD DEPTH. STORMS THAT FIRE WILL EASILY HAVE
VERY ROBUST UPDRAFTS. EXPECTING MORE OF AN ELEVATED HAIL EVENT WITH
THE STORMS THIS EVENING AND LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT
WILL BE. CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO SATURDAY
MORNING THOUGH THAT FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST SO THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN FOR THUNDER WILL BE NORTHERN IOWA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT A STOUT CAP WILL BE
IN PLACE AND WE ARE LOOKING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IN
THE CWA...ASSUMING THE FRONT REMAINS IN SOUTHERN MN. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY HAMPERED BY
CLOUD COVER AT LEAST INITIALLY. I DONT/ THINK WE WILL MIX AS GOOD
AS WE COULD.

FOR SUNDAY WE WILL SEE LESS CLOUD COVER AND A STRONGER SOUTH WIND
OVER THE AREA. I EXPECT THE CWA TO ONCE AGAIN BE CAPPED UNTIL A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THIS
AND A STRONG JET AS A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES INTO WESTERN
IOWA. WE COULD SEE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT
THOUGH TIMING ISN/T THE BEST. DYNAMICALLY THOUGH I DONT THINK IT
WILL MATTER. WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 1500 J/KG ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR.
SIMILAR TO THE OTHER NIGHT IT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FROM SUPERCELLS
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES TO A LINEAR SYSTEM WITH
WIND DAMAGE PROBABLY OVER A FAIR PART OF THE CWA.

THE FRONT WILL HEAD EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY ENDING THE THREAT FOR
STORMS BUT USHERING SOME PRETTY COOL AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND THAT THERE IS SUFFICIENT DISAGREEMENT ON A MID WEEK SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER TO THE AREA BUT SHEAR IS
WEAK AND WE WILL BE MORE STABLE. KEPT THE POPS WE HAD GOING FOR
CONSISTENCY SAKE BUT TIMING AND LOCATION WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

.AVIATION...25/18Z
EXPECT POTENTIALLY THREE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DEEP WARM
ADVECTION BEFORE 12Z...AND THAT WILL BE MAIN DRIVER FOR AVIATION
WEATHER. CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH IOWA IS BASED
ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. THIS MAY DRIFT OFF TO THE
ENE BEFORE STRONGER DEVELOPED IS EXPECTED IN W AND SW IOWA WHICH
WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST 26/02Z-06Z WITH MVFR VISIBILITY. AS WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OVERNIGHT...LESS INTENSE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT COULD
CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING MVFR OVER NORTH HALF OF
IOWA. EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO BE LIFTING AND BREAKING UP SATURDAY
MORNING.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BSS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...JUNGBLUTH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

650 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE FROM NE INTO THE HEART OF IA WHICH
WILL KEEP MIXING REDUCED TODAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OR LOWER 80S.

.AVIATION...25/12Z
ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM NE INTO IA THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KDSM AT TIMES. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT HOWEVER. WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR LOCATION DETAILS AS OF YET HAVE
NOTHING BEYOND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VCSH WORDING WITH VFR CIGS.
THUNDER AND MVFR OR LESS CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HOWEVER BUT NOT
INCLUDED UNTIL TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BSS
LONG TERM...FAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

345 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE FROM NE INTO THE HEART OF IA WHICH
WILL KEEP MIXING REDUCED TODAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OR LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE MIDWEST THE FRONT WHICH MOVED
THROUGH US YESTERDAY WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN MISSOURI ACROSS
IOWA. 0-3KM SHEAR INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL AND LOOKING
AT SOUNDINGS THERE IS A 50-70KT JET OFF THE SURFACE AND IT IS
ACTUALLY TO A PRETTY GOOD DEPTH. STORMS THAT FIRE WILL EASILY HAVE
VERY ROBUST UPDRAFTS. EXPECTING MORE OF AN ELEVATED HAIL EVENT WITH
THE STORMS THIS EVENING AND LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT
WILL BE. CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO SATURDAY
MORNING THOUGH THAT FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST SO THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN FOR THUNDER WILL BE NORTHERN IOWA.

.AVIATION...25/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SKC AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH
WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR
BY THE EVENING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BSS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

315 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WITH A CLOSED CENTER OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LARGE SCALE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
US...WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH TO LIE
ALONG THE KS/OK STATE LINE.

THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AROUND 00Z.
SHEAR PROFILES ALONG THE WARM FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
GROWTH...WITH STRONG WINDS/HAIL THE MAIN THREAT OVER OUR AREA.
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WITH STRATUS BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP OVER THE CWA. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH BL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH TD VALUES IN THE MID 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WITH OVERALL TREND INITIALLY QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED BRINGING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE CWA AFTER
06Z...SO THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR FOG/STRATUS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH COULD SEE FOG
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUSY PERIOD WEATHER-WISE WITH
MULTIPLE CONCERNS. SURFACE LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. ADDITIONALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
DEEPLY MIXED. WITH MODERATE FLOW ALOFT...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH IN HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET SO OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE GOING HIGH WIND WATCH.

ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY REVOLVE AROUND POTENTIAL FOR
NEAR-RECORD/RECORD TEMPS AND BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CURRENT RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE
SUBSECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION BUT SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH MANY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. AT THE SAME TIME...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
EASTERN COLORADO EXPECTED TO APPROACH 10 PERCENT. HOWEVER...FUELS
HAVE GREENED QUITE A BIT WITH THE RECENT PRECIPITATION SO NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT PLANNED THOUGH ALL OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WINDS.

FINALLY...ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN`T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BROAD-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO BE POTENTIALLY
VERY ACTIVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM A
SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...STEEP LOW/MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS WILL AID IN UPDRAFT
FORMATION AND ORGANIZATION. LOW LEVEL PARAMETERS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES AFTER 21Z AS THE CAP ERODES
RAPIDLY. FOCUS SHIFTS EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY 03Z.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOCUS FOR
ASCENT IS POSITIONED EAST OF THE KS/CO BORDER WHERE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS CERTAINLY MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE AS COMPARED TO THE EC BUT FEEL COMFORTABLE CARRYING SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT...WILL SEE
TEMPS ON THURSDAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE WESTERN
CONUS MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012

MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
BL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH NORTH OF THIS FRONT WITH EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. POSITION OF THE FRONT...AND
TIMING OVERNIGHT IS A BIG QUESTION MARK STILL WITH A LARGE SPREAD
IN GUIDANCE WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW LONG FOG/STRATUS WILL OCCUR AT
EACH TERMINAL. BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY 03Z AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KMCK THROUGH 12Z. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
DECREASE CONDITIONS BELOW IFR IN THE TAFS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
QUICKLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE AROUND 09Z AT KGLD AND AROUND 12-13Z AT KMCK. CHANCES
WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM MENTION AT KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP AROUND
THE AREA.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU MAY 24 2012

RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY.

GOODLAND.....97 IN 2006
HILL CITY....99 IN 1912
MCCOOK.......98 IN 1967
BURLINGTON...95 IN 1942
YUMA.........96
TRIBUNE......101
COLBY........98

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ079.

SHORT TERM...DR/FOLTZ
LONG TERM...FOLTZ
AVIATION...DR
CLIMATE...007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

257 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

A -27C 500MB UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WERE EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ONE SUBTLE
WAVE APPEARING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, VIA WATER VAPOR LOOP.
AT 250 AND 300MB LEVEL AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS
JET NEAR CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT 700MB THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS WITH +12C AT DOGE CITY, +14C AT AMARILLO, AND +13C
AT OKLAHOMA CITY. AT 850MB LEVEL MOISTURE WAS POOLING NEAR THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE 850MB WARM FRONT WHICH STRETCHED FROM THE
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AT 12Z FRIDAY WAS AT
17Z LOCATED FROM NEAR GARDEN CITY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. A
DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF DODGE CITY SOUTH OF
THIS WARM FRONT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

DODGE CITY RADAR APPEARS TO BE PICKING UP ON THE WARM FRONT AS OF
18Z AND PLACED THIS BOUNDARY FROM NEAR GARDEN CITY TO JETMORE TO
NEAR BURDETT AND LARNED. RAP ALSO INDICATING IMPROVING 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHILE 700MB TEMPERATURES VARIED
FROM +13 TO +14C. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE STILL INDICATING A
CAP IN PLACE BUT ALSO HAD 2000-3000J/KG PRESENT IN THIS AREA AS
WELL. CLOUD COVER FINALLY STARTING TO ERODE AND TEMPERATURES ARE
STARTING TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AT THIS TIME IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WILL BE REACHED BY LATE
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF JETMORE. WILL THEREFORE RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EAST OF JETMORE LATE
TODAY. LATEST RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATED 0-6KM SHEAR OF 50KTS, LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEAR/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND LOW LCLS AT 00Z
SATURDAY SO IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME THE CAP LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO OR TWO STILL SEEMS REASONABLE NEAR THE WARM FRONT. CORFIDI
VECTORS AND BUNKERS STORM MOTION INDICATES A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT
FROM THESE STORMS LATE TODAY WHICH SHOULD TAKE ANY LATE DAY
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

A DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT
INTO THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA. BASED ON 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS
DRYLINE LOCATED NEAR DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND. THIS WILL ALSO BE AN
AREA OF FORCING LATE TODAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT GIVEN
THE HIGHER LCLS AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM
THESE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP WILL BE HAIL. AGAIN STORM MOTION WILL
TAKE THESE STORMS NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WARM FRONT IS STILL FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS
TO LIFT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS THE DRY LINE RETREATS WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE COLORADO BORDER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. THIS ALONG WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS OF OF 35 TO NEAR 40
KTS AM LEANING TOWARDS ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF OF
WESTERN KANSAS. PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27 TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM NEAR HAYS TO ELKHART LATE DAY.
THIS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODELS HAD PLACED
THIS BOUNDARY LATE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

SATURDAY NIGHT:

THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A WEAK UL SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW EVENING. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE
OVERALL COVERAGE GIVEN THIS SMALL PERTURBATION THAT MIGHT NOT PAN OUT
AND FAIRLY WARM 11 TO 12 DEG C 700 HPA TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, WE
KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE (1000 J/KG SBCAPE/20
KT 0-6 KM SHEAR).

SUNDAY:

THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE INTERESTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A 95 KT 250 HPA JET WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A MORE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
TRIPLE POINT OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, THE DRYLINE AND THE
WARM FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEFINITELY BE MORE OF A CONCERN AS THE
OVERALL KINEMATIC PROFILE STRENGTHENS AND IN COMBINATION WITH DECENT
SURFACE BASED CAPE. ANVIL LEVEL SR FLOW AROUND 35 KT, 3 TO 6 KM SR FLOW
OF 18 KT, 700-850 HPA LAPSE RATES OF 8.2 C/KM, AND 500-300 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7.2 C/KM ALL POINT TO THE CHANCE FOR GIANT HAIL SUNDAY. MUCAPE/MLCAPE
DURING THE AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO ABOUT AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE EVENT
LOOKS SYNOPTICALLY SIMILAR TO JUNE 18TH 2010 WHERE GRAPEFRUIT SIZE HAIL
WAS REPORTED. OF COURSE, THIS IS ALL MESOSCALE NOISE AT THIS POINT AND
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL, WOULD NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO
BUT THE LOWER LCLS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NC KS/SC NE ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

MONDAY:

250/500 HPA FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SYNOPTIC WAVE MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN
850 HPA TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST IN THE 20S DEG C. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS TANKING
DOWN INTO THE 30S & 40S DEG F.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND:

DID NOT STRAY FROM THE ALLBLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SUBTROPIC JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH LEE TROUGHING, MOISTURE
RETURN, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES TOWARDS THE
END OF THE MONTH AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND 700/850 HPA
TEMPERATURES COOL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

LOW MVFR CIGS LINGERING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH AT 17Z
EXTENDED FROM NEAR GARDEN CITY TO HUTCHINSON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AT
HAYS INDICATING THESE MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BY 20Z
WITH CLEARING SKIES LIKELY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY AS EASTERLY WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOME SOUTHEAST. LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE WARM FRONT LATE TODAY AND A DRYLINE WHICH WILL
EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS WARM FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA.
AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS LATE
TODAY AND WARM LAYER EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL
INCLUDE VCTS ONLY IN THE HAYS TAF LATE TODAY. THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE AT
ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 96 70 92 / 20 20 20 40
GCK 64 97 69 93 / 10 20 20 30
EHA 61 96 66 90 / 10 20 20 10
LBL 65 96 69 91 / 10 20 20 20
HYS 67 97 72 91 / 30 20 20 60
P28 72 94 72 91 / 20 10 10 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
SATURDAY FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

116 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT STARTS
TO ENTER THE AREA REACHING THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...LOW
90S FROM NORTON TO HILL CITY INTO TRIBUNE.

MONDAY...DRY WITH LOW TO MID 80S.

TUESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY STRONG DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S.

THURSDAY...SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU MAY 24 2012

RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY.

GOODLAND.....97 IN 2006
HILL CITY....99 IN 1912
MCCOOK.......98 IN 1967
BURLINGTON...95 IN 1942
YUMA.........96
TRIBUNE......101
COLBY........98

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ079.

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...007
AVIATION...DR
CLIMATE...007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

706 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THIS AFD UPDATE, NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WILL BE MADE. WE ALREADY
REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS A.M., AS THE WARM FRONT
WAS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA UP ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.
SOME CAPE WAS STILL EVIDENT DOWN IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA, BUT
DO NOT SEE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF US MOVING NORTH TOO SOON. BY
THIS AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL GET PUSHED NORTH AS YET ANOTHER
WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A SHALLOW WATER TO ASH VALLEY LINE, OR
NORTH A LINE FROM SCOTT COUNTY TO PAWNEE COUNTY. I PLACED 20 POPS
THERE AFTER 18Z. THE NAM MODEL WOULD HAVE THE PRECIP CHANCES A
TIER OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD, BUT THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION A LITTLE SOONER THAN THE NAM, AND ANOTHER
ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTHWARD. THIS SITUATION REMINDS ME OF YESTERDAY,
WHEN THE NAM PROVED TO BE MORE CORRECT (CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA). SINCE 20 PERCENT POPS ARE CHEAP AND I DO NOT SEE
ANY REASON TO AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE IN SCOTT, LANE,
NESS, RUSH AND PAWNEE, I PLANNED TO KEEP THE LOW POPS AS FAR SOUTH
AS A SCOTT TO PAWNEE COUNTY LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY
DUE TO THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION COMING NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA
BEHIND THE FRONT. DOWN NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, MAX T`S WILL
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK. I DID NOTCH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO, SINCE THE ADVANCEMENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX T`S IN THE HAYS AND
WAKEENEY AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE FRONT STRADDLING FROM NEAR SYRACUSE TO NESS
CITY AND THEN SOUTH INTO THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA. WITH THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARMING LEFT FROM THE DAY HEATING THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
PRIMED WITH INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS NEAR AND NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAD KEPT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT`S 20
POPS IN PLACE, AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR MANY
STORMS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH AT 20 TO 25 MPH IN MOST
LOCATIONS HELPING TO ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. WINDS THEN WILL BECOME 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT, STILL
FROM THE SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
WARM, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE HAMILTON, STANTON, AND
MORTON COUNTY AREAS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PRATT, BARBER, AND
COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS UPON US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
CONTINUING ISSUES OF WARM TEMPERATURES, WIND, CONVECTIVE CHANCES
REMAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE.

THE FIRST PROBLEM WILL BE WHERE AND WHEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ONE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING WITH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. AT THIS TIME, THE MODELS THAT HAVE THE BEST AGREEMENT
APPEAR TO BE THE ECMWF AND THE NAM. THESE TEND TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION ALONG A DIFFUSE DRYLINE FEATURE, GENERALLY ALONG A
ROUGH HAYS TO MEADE LINE AND EASTWARD. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WOULD
BE DISCREET WITH GOOD SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS VERY DIFFERENT, HANGING THE DRYLINE/TROUGH
MUCH FARTHER WEST NEAR THE COLORADO LINE AND FOCUSING CONVECTION
LATE DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SURFACE WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST ON SATURDAY. THE
INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A PRIMARY DETERMINANT OF THE
POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF INDICATES A 10 MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
UPPER JETS DON`T REALLY APPEAR TO BE PHASED FOR THE GREATEST MIX
DOWN POTENTIAL THOUGH. THE GFSMOS IS SHOWING VERY STOUT 40-45 KNOT
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS, BUT MODELS ARE NOWHERE NEAR THIS SOLUTION AS
OF YET. A WINDY DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED THOUGH WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT 40+ KT GUSTS.
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S ARE STILL ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE
WARM ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS - WITH A WEAK DOWNTREND IN
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME, AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED
CIRCULATION WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. A POTENT
JET STREAK IS MODELED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGIONS ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH AND JET WILL ACT
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY, AS WELL AS LIFT THE DRYLINE/SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE NAM, THE AREAS OF BEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DODGE CITY FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALSO BE UNDER A
SUPERCELL HAIL, WIND AND TORNADO THREAT . THE SURFACE DRYLINE/WARM
SECTOR COULD EASILY BE ACTIVE ON THIS DAY. THE DEEP MEAN STORM
MOTIONS APPEAR STRONG AND PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE WHICH COULD IMPLY
A FEW TORNADOES MIGHT BE MORE LIKELY.

WITH THE STRONG UPPER JET PRESENT, AND SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY
LIKELY STILL AROUND THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SHOWERS AND A FEW ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT STILL OCCUR INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A DOWNTREND
INTO MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT
ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. BY TUESDAY, THE SURFACE
WINDS TURNS BACK AROUND INTO A WEAK UPSLOPE PATTERN AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT POINT, THE MESOSCALE APPEARS TO ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG A MEAN BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. AS A RESULT THE ALLBLEND FORECAST
METHODOLOGY PRODUCES ABOUT 20 TO 40 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES;
INCREASING TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA THIS MORNING IS THE
CAUSE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. THESE SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER
WITH TIME AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATE CLOUD BASED WILL GENERALLY BE LIFTING THOUGH THE DAY AS THE
WARMER AIR INVADES THE AREA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AND
THE SURFACE FRONT AND LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN ANY
TERMINALS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 96 68 98 68 / 10 10 30 30
GCK 94 65 97 67 / 10 10 20 20
EHA 97 63 96 65 / 0 10 20 20
LBL 99 66 97 67 / 10 10 30 30
HYS 88 66 98 70 / 20 20 30 30
P28 94 71 97 70 / 20 20 10 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

358 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS UPON US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
CONTINUING ISSUES OF WARM TEMPERATURES, WIND, CONVECTIVE CHANCES
REMAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. LOWER CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT AOA040, BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
TO THE TAF SITES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF LOCATIONS BOTH PRIOR TO 09Z AND AFTER
13Z.

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

343 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THIS AFD UPDATE, NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WILL BE MADE. WE ALREADY
REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS A.M., AS THE WARM FRONT
WAS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA UP ALONG THE KAUNAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.
SOME CAPE WAS STILL EVIDENT DOWN IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA, BUT DO
NOT SEE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF US MOVING NORTH TOO SOON. BY THIS
AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL GET PUSHED NORTH AS YET ANOTHER WARM
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A SHALLOW WATER TO ASH VALLEY LINE, OR NORTH
A LINE FROM SCOTT COUNTY TO PAWNEE COUNTY. I PLACED 20 POPS THERE
AFTER 18Z. THE NAM MODEL WOULD HAVE THE PRECIP CHANCES A TIER OF
COUNTIES NORTHWARD, BUT THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION A LITTLE SOONER THAN THE NAM, AND ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. THIS SITUATION REMINDS ME OF YESTERDAY, WHEN THE NAM
PROVED TO BE MORE CORRECT (CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA).
SINCE 20 PERCENT POPS ARE CHEAP AND I DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO AT
LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE IN SCOTT, LANE, NESS, RUSH AND PAWNEE,
I PLANNED TO KEEP THE LOW POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS A SCOTT TO PAWNEE
COUNTY LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY DUE TO THE STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION COMING NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT. DOWN
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, MAX T`S WILL APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK. I
DID NOTCH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A DEGREE OR TWO, SINCE THE
ADVANCEMENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX T`S IN THE HAYS AND WAKEENEY AREAS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

FRIDAY NIGHT:

I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY FROM HAYS TO MEDICINE LODGE FRIDAY
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING
THE EVENING. 700 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE WARM @ 14
DEG C, HOWEVER, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HOT (UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEG F) SO THE CAP MIGHT BE BREAKABLE. NAM SHOWS ABOUT 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 TO 40 KT. SO IF CONVECTION DOES
FORM, THEN A LOW END SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE IS WELL
MIXED TO ABOUT 550 HPA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DISPLAYING AN INVERTED
V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH WOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE... 60S
DEG F WEST AND AROUND 70 DEG F SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY:

THE WARM SECTOR SPREADS NORTHWARD SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR
INCREASING OVER THE REGION...ERGO, A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOLLOWED THE ECMWF
FOR GUIDANCE AND HAVE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S DEG F ACROSS
SW KANSAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS REACHED 100 DEG
F. BROAD BRUSHED THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WITH SLIGHT POPS DUE
TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. KINEMATIC PROFILES FROM THE ECMWF/GFS ARE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND DISPLAYING AN INVERTED V PROFILE AGAIN SO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY:

SUNDAY IS THE MOST INTERESTING DAY IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS.
A 250 HPA JET STREAK WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA WHICH WILL PUT WESTERN
KANSAS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SAID JET STREAK. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS NEAR HAYS CLOSER TO THE EXPECTED TRIPLE POINT OF THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER, WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE. TORNADO POTENTIAL MIGHT BE
LOWER IF LCL`S REMAIN HIGH, WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND LESS
THE GFS. THERE IS ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR THAT ROTATING SUPERCELLS
WILL BE LIKELY. RIGHT NOW, IF ONE WERE TO BELIEVE THE MESOSCALE NAM
MODEL (ALTHOUGH NOT PREFERRED THIS FAR OUT) THAN SIGNIFICANT HAIL IS
MORE OF A CONCERN. 700-500 HPA LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AROUND 8.2 DEG
C/KM WITH A FAVORABLE AND MORE SHALLOW 500-300 HPA LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.2 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION, 3 TO 6 KM SR FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK AT 18 KT
WHICH MIGHT HELP THE HYDROMETEORS IN BECOMING REINGESTED INTO THE
UPDRAFT. LASTLY, ANVIL LEVEL SR WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN 25 KT WHICH
IS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL (THINKING UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE)
VIA MORE CLASSIC STORM MODE THAN HP.

MONDAY AND BEYOND:

EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FLAT
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYNOPTIC WAVE. FOLLOWED THE WARMER ECMWF
THAN COMPARED TO THE ALLBLEND AS THE ALLBLEND LOOKS A LITTLE TOO COOL
GIVEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. WILL KEEP POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE W TO EVENTUALLY
NW FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD REGARDING THESE POPS. AS USUAL, THE GFS IS WETTER THAN THE ECMWF.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE IN REPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. LOWER CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT AOA040, BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
TO THE TAF SITES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF LOCATIONS BOTH PRIOR TO 09Z AND AFTER
13Z.

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1130 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2012

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS T HE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY
TRACKING WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES OVER NORTHERN COLORADO AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTH INTO NORTHCENTRAL TEXAS...AND THEN NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
COLORADO.

TONIGHT...A CLOSED LOW CENTER WITHING THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO. A STRONG LLJ IS
ADVERTISED TO DEVELOP BY 06Z TONIGHT WHICH COULD ALSO ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA. VERY
STRONG SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE
EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. IM ALSO NOT SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH
TD WILL RECOVER NORTH OF THE FRONT. I KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH BEST COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WHEN LLJ
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATION OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT WITH EASTERLY FLOW AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW...SO I KEPT
PATCHY FOG MENTION.

FRIDAY..SHOWER/THUNDERSTOM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TIMING OF
WARM FRONT FRIDAY WITH NAM THE SLOW OUTLIER. NAM SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP STRATUS/FOG IN PLACE ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AIRMASS.
GFS/ECMWF FAVOR THE CLEARING SOLUTION ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST..WHICH IS WHERE I LEANED THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT TO THIS PERIOD WAS TO BUMP
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A NOTCH OR TWO WITH SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2012

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARING POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP. H85 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND
30C OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID TO UPPER 20S C ELSEWHERE.
RESULT WILL BE AFTERNOON TEMPS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. EVERYONE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST THE LOW/MID 90S.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WINDY DAY ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LATEST GUIDANCE HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS. CONSIDERED
HOISTING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WESTERN HALF BUT OPTED TO HOLD OFF
AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO HAVE ANOTHER RUN OF NWP GUIDANCE. AT
THE LEAST...APPEARS AS THOUGH A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL TANK ACROSS THE WEST WHICH WILL
RESULT IN RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. FUELS PAGE
INDICATES SUFFICIENT GREEN-UP IS ONGOING WHICH MAY LIMIT FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT THIS IS ALSO SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST SHIFTS. DISCREPANCIES DO
EXIST IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS
JUSTIFIED. GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE OF VERTICAL SOUNDING
PROFILES...ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THOUGH
SHEAR PROFILES DON`T BECOME STRONGLY FAVORABLE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...POTENT MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE
THE ULTIMATE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...DEW
POINT WILL SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN THE LOWER
60S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL AID IN UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION WHILE STRONG LOW LEVEL PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT
A TORNADO THREAT. GREATEST THREAT IS CURRENTLY INDICATED TO BE
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. INTERESTED
PARTIES WILL WANT TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARY MID/UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RESULT SHOULD BE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA. BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER
PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. WILL CARRY
PRIMARILY CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2012

LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KMCK AREA OVERNIGHT THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MAY VERY BRIEFLY GET INTO MVFR ON THE CEILINGS IF
A THUNDERSTORM WERE TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CEILINGS
IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PERSISTENT AREA
OF SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
AT KGLD WHERE THEY COULD GUST TO NEAR 30KTS.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU MAY 24 2012

RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY.

GOODLAND.....97 IN 2006
HILL CITY....99 IN 1912
MCCOOK.......98 IN 1967
BURLINGTON...95 IN 1942
YUMA.........96
TRIBUNE......101
COLBY........98

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR/FOLTZ
LONG TERM...FOLTZ
AVIATION...024
CLIMATE...007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

1253 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO SPREAD THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DOWN INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...MAINLY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE OZARKS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES TCU DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA...AND THE HRRR MODEL
DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION THERE AS WELL. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE
AT THIS POINT SEEMS TO BE IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS BEGINNING BECOME A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR, WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR
RECORD HEAT BY SAT IN THE MID 90S...AND RECORD HEAT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S SUNDAY.

WILL LIKELY GO A TAD ABOVE MOS MAX TEMPS BY THAT TIME GIVEN THE
SOIL DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ONE POSITIVE RESULT OF THE DRY GROUND IS
LESS EVAPOTRANSPERATION...WHICH HOPEFULLY HELP KEEP SFC DEW POINTS
IN CHECK MID 60S. THIS SHOULD ACT TO KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES VERY CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPS. THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED FOR HEAT AS OF NOW. WILL REISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE HEAT AND DRY FUELS MOISTURE CONDITIONS...WHICH
WILL ELEVATE WILDFIRE RISKS OVER THE WEEKEND. LACK OF STRONG WINDS
AND HUMIDITIES HOLDING IN THE 40S WILL WILL HELP EASE THIS FACTOR
A BIT.

FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES FOR TODAY AS SFC TROF IS NOW
ADVERTISED BY MOST MODELS TO EASE DOWN TOWARD I 64 REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
SUNSHINE LATE MORNING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE VERY MARGINAL...
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS INTO LOW CHC CATEGORY NORTH OF I 64...ESP
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN LI VALUES ARE ADVERTISED FROM -6 TO -9.
AGAIN...WOULD NOT CHANGE ANY HOLIDAY PLANS BASED ON THIS...BUT
GIVEN POSSIBLE TRAVEL/SOCIAL IMPACTS...WOULD RATHER HAVE A SMALL
RISK AND HAVE NOTHING OCCUR THAN THE OPPOSITE. HIGH ALOFT MOVES
QUICKLY NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THOUGH BY FRIDAY NIGHT
SAT...ENDING MOST PRECIP CHCS AS THERMAL CAP FORMS ALOFT. THE
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST AFTERNOONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE NEAR RECORD HEAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE ON MEMORIAL DAY...AS HIGHS AGAIN REACH THE MID
90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. MAINTAINED FORECAST DEW POINTS BELOW THOSE OF
MOS FOR MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX READINGS IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY DRY AND THE GFS CONTINUING TO
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IF THE GFS IS TOO HIGH WITH DEW POINTS AS WE BELIEVE...IT WOULD ALSO
BE OVERLY UNSTABLE...AND THUS OVERDONE WITH PRECIP CHANCES. AS A
RESULT...WILL STICK WITH THE DRY ECMWF FOR NOW GIVEN OUR PREFERENCE
TOWARDS ITS LOWER DEW POINT FORECAST.

BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH
AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR REMNANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE APPROACH OF A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM BY
THURSDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. ONE THING DOES LOOK CERTAIN THOUGH...AND
THAT IS A TREND TOWARDS MILDER WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

TAFS REFLECT TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS IN CU AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WINDS. WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE TEENS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME NEARLY
CALM OVERNIGHT. WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY AT THE EASTERN SITES.
HINTED AT IT AT ALL SITES...BUT KEPT IT JUST ABOVE MVFR LEVELS FOR
NOW.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM....RP
AVIATION...DRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

942 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
945 PM LOCAL UPDATE...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO TELL STORY OF
FRONT/DISCONTINUITY WITH 54 AT PIT AND STILL 70 AT LBE. WILL HOLD
ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. STILL
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP OCCASIONALLY FROM
DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND SOUTH. HRRR STOPPED UPDATING AT
19Z...HOWEVER IT SUGGESTED THAT STILL SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS ACROSS SOUTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AS ADVERTISED BY THE
HIRES COULD BE PUSHING IN BY MID-MORNING....SO KEPT PREVIOUS POPS
AT CHANCE BY MID-MORNING. HIRES THEN BRINGS ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY WITH PLACEMENT TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS DROP TEMPERATURE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LOWER DEWPOINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO BISECT OUR CWA. THIS CAN BE BEST SEEN
IN THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL WORK AS
A MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIDGES AND POINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE CAPPING IS
WEAKEST. THE MOST RECENT WRF-NMM AND HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS RUNNING
THROUGH CENTRAL PA INTO SOUTHWESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV THOUGH THERE
HAS YET TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT UP
TO THIS POINT OVER OUR AREA. STILL WITH THE MOST RECENT MESO
ANALYSIS SUGGESTING 3500 J/KG OF CAPE AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
STILL WELL INTO THE 60`S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THINK THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
DISORGANIZED. CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. THE NAM WANTS TO BRING A MCS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT THAT WAS STALLED OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY BEGINS TO LIFT AS A WARM FRONT...SPARKING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND WHETHER THE MCS WILL MAKE
IT...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. MAINTAINED
TEMPERATURES NEAR MAV/MEX GUIDANCE OF 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AS 850HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO ALMOST 20C OVERHEAD.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST MONDAY WILL BRING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVERHEAD TO ASSIST IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE PROGGED FOR LATE
TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND HEATING...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...BROUGHT IN HIGH CHANCE WORDING BY THE
AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED TEMPERATURES NEAR MAV/MEX GUIDANCE OF 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL MEMORIAL DAY AS 850HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO ALMOST 20C
OVERHEAD. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING
TUESDAY...KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING WEST TO EAST AS NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND FRONT
BRINGS IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY UNDER A FLAT TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO COME BACK NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BRINGING IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE BEGINNING OF JUNE WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCE POPS CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER
COLD POOL ALOFT. CLOSE TO HPC PROGS.

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS MOST EASILY SEEN THROUGH
DEWPOINT READINGS SHOULD BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN WHICH LOCATIONS
DEVELOP FOG OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THAT ALL SITES WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...INCLUDING PIT...BVI...FKL...AND DUJ...SHOULD REMAIN DRY
ENOUGH OVERNIGHT THAT NO RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP. SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...THINK THAT SOME PATCHY FOG IS AT LEAST A
POSSIBILITY...AND LBE SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE CONSIDERING A
COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. GENERAL
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING AROUND UPPER RIDGE AND TO THE EAST OF LOCAL TERMINALS.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS SO FAR OUT.

.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERAL VFR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

729 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 PM LOCAL UPDATE... FRONT DEPICTED BY LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL
DRAPED ACROSS REGION. PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM NORTH AND WEST QUITE
AMAZING...PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE GRADIENT. DEWPOINT AT
BUTLER 48 AND WASHINGTON PA 68 AT THIS TIME. ALL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS FROM DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SE SECTIONS AND LOWERED POPS ELSEWHERE.
ALSO LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NW HALF COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LOWER
TEMPS AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT CAN`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DYNAMICS AFTER SUNSET. HI-RES BRINGS IN REMNANTS OF CONVECTION
FROM MIDWEST BY MORNING BUT IT IS ON THE WANE. THINK TOMORROW
ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY. I LIKE 3HR CALIBRATED SEVERE (FROM
SPC) LATELY AND AM CURRENTLY THINKING THAT SLIGHT CHANCE ANYWHERE
TOMORROW WITH BEST CHANCE AGAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION.
ESPECIALLY IF WEAK FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH NORTH AS WARM FRONT.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS MOST EASILY SEEN THROUGH
DEWPOINT READINGS SHOULD BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN WHICH LOCATIONS
DEVELOP FOG OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THAT ALL SITES WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...INCLUDING PIT...BVI...FKL...AND DUJ...SHOULD REMAIN DRY
ENOUGH OVERNIGHT THAT NO RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP. SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...THINK THAT SOME PATCHY FOG IS AT LEAST A
POSSIBILITY...AND LBE SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE CONSIDERING A
COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. GENERAL
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING AROUND UPPER RIDGE AND TO THE EAST OF LOCAL TERMINALS.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS SO FAR OUT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

705 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
630 PM LOCAL UPDATE...
FRONT DEPICTED BY LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL DRAPED ACROSS REGION.
PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM NORTH AND WEST QUITE AMAZING...PROVIDING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE GRADIENT. DEWPOINT AT BUTLER 48 AND
WASHINGTON PA 68 AT THIS TIME. ALL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FROM DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SE SECTIONS AND LOWERED POPS ELSEWHERE. ALSO
LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NW HALF COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LOWER TEMPS
AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT CAN`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS AFTER
SUNSET. HI-RES BRINGS IN REMNANTS OF CONVECTION FROM MIDWEST BY
MORNING BUT IT IS ON THE WANE. THINK TOMORROW ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR
TO TODAY. I LIKE 3HR CALIBRATED SEVERE (FROM SPC) LATELY AND AM
CURRENTLY THINKING THAT SLIGHT CHANCE ANYWHERE TOMORROW WITH BEST
CHANCE AGAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION. ESPECIALLY IF WEAK
FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH NORTH AS WARM FRONT.

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. THE NAM WANTS TO BRING A MCS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT THAT WAS STALLED
OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BEGINS TO LIFT AS A WARM FRONT...SPARKING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND WHETHER THE MCS WILL
MAKE IT...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVERHEAD TO ASSIST IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

MAINTAINED TEMPERATURES NEAR MAV/MEX GUIDANCE OF 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY AS 850HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
ALMOST 20C OVERHEAD. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING TUESDAY...KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM KPHD TO KPIT AND KIDI
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES LOOKS TO
BE SHUNTED NORTH OF REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

749 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH UT/NRN AZ.
AT THE SFC...E TO SE FLOW WAS DEVELOPING BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN
ONTARIO AND A WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL. AREAS OF
CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SRN MN INTO SW WI...CLOSER TO THE 850
MB WARM FRONT. A BAND OF -SHRA...MAINLY SPRINKLES OVER SRN UPPER MI
WAS DIMINISHING AT IT MOVES EAST INTO THE DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

TONIGHT...AS THE UT/AZ SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD NE WY AND WRN ND
AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...THE
SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH. MDLS STILL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL. EXPECT INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION ALONG THE WI BDR AND
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 850 MB WARM FRONT AND
BEST 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. EXPECT INCREASED
MID-LVL DRYING/WARMING TO HELP CAP CONVECTION OVER SRN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE THE AREA...TEMPS
COULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG THE WI BDR BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL (LOWER 60S) OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA IN AN ERLY FLOW AND
ALONG LAKE MI IN A SRLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON...AND WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON.

PERIOD STARTS 00Z MON WITH A DEEP 500MB LOW OVER FAR NE MT AND A
500MB RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SE CONUS...OVER OUR CWA...AND INTO CENTRAL
MANITOBA. AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE A LOW E OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH A
WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE SRN CWA. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING WHEN IT MOVES E
THROUGH THE WEEK.

SUN NIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE SRN CWA TO START
THE NIGHT OFF...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN
NIGHT...BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEING OVER THE CWA /SO REALLY
NO UPPER SUPPORT/ AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER N AND W LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
19C AND SW FLOW...EXPECT WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S
/WARMEST IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/.

MON...ATTENTION TURNS TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE 00Z/26 ECMWF
BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 12Z/26
GFS AND 12Z/26 NAM. PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND NAM
SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE. THIS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA AROUND 18Z MON...THEN
TO THE CENTRAL CWA AROUND 00Z TUE...THEN EXITING THE E CWA AROUND
06Z TUE. THIS WOULD PROVIDE TIME FOR AMPLE HEATING AS 850MB TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND 17C...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
90...WARMEST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL. THERE SHOULD BE AROUND 1000J/KG
OF SBCAPE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1500J/KG.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO BE 60-70KTS...BUT 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE
LOWER AT AROUND 15KTS. IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY DRY THROUGHOUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD ACT TO LIMIT PRECIP. THE NAM SHOWS THE MOST
MOISTURE...BUT THAT ALSO BRINGS AN 850MB JET UP INTO THE CWA...WHICH
THE DRIER GFS KEEPS FARTHER S. TEND TO SUPPORT THE GFS IDEA
HERE...AS THE JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS TYPICALLY BLOCKED BY
ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE S...WHICH LOOKS FAVORABLE GIVEN THE JET
NOSING INTO AN AREA OF HIGH CAPE OVER SRN WI/NRN IL. ALSO...THE
UPPER LOW WILL ONLY HAVE MOVE TO EXTREME NW MN BY 00Z TUE...SO UPPER
SUPPORT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING. STILL...IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM
SOME OF THEM COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THINK THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO PUT IN THE HWO. AS FAR AS POPS
GO...WILL KEEP BELOW LIKELY PERCENTAGES.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING FROM A CWA AVG OF AROUND 9C AT 12Z TUE...TO 6C BY 00Z WED.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS...LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET
POP UP SHOWERS INLAND TUE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL GET INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE E AND CWA...WITH W UPPER MI SEEING HIGHS
IN THE 50S.

SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA WED INTO EARLY
THU...KEEPING TEMPS COOL AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE -1C TO 1C WED.
WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE ON THU...WITH CWA AVG
850MB TEMPS AROUND 5C BY 00Z FRI. HIGHS WED LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 S ON WED...AND IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S THU. THEN
EXPECT SOME WARMING FRI INTO NEXT SAT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON SAT AS MODELS HAVE MORE
WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

AS WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...EXPECT
ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP TO SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI...AFFECTING
KIWD FIRST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN SPREADING ACROSS UPPER MI
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER RADAR IS SHOWING MAIN BAND OF
PRECIP REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AT THIS POINT AND WEAKENING AS IT
TRIES TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING ON THE RAIN ONSET. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND AMEND IF TIMES NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK FURTHER.
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WARM FRONT COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME VCTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS SO HAVE REMOVED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KCMX AND KSAW COULD SEE IFR AND MVFR VIS LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD DUE
TO FOG PRODUCTION OVER THE LAKE BEING ADVECTED INLAND.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. PRESSURE
PATTERN RESULTS IN PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING INTO WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
AND A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONG GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVR MUCH
OF WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
ON SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WINDS BY LATER IN THE DAY.
SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS TO
25 KTS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVR
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD THEN REMAIN GUSTY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JMW
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

937 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGES AS OF 03 UTC SHOW THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
IN FAR SOUTHERN IDAHO...JUST NORTHWEST OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE. THE
00 UTC RAP AND NAM MODELS DISPLAY A TREND TOWARD THE WEST WITH THE
500-HPA LOW BY 12 UTC SUN...WHICH PUSHES THEIR IDEAS CLOSER TO THE
ONE LONG HELD BY THE ECMWF. A NEAR-TERM TREND LIKE THIS ONE IS NOT
ONE TO IGNORE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT IMPLICATIONS THIS MAY ACTUALLY HAVE FOR THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT IN THE END IT COULD PULL THE DRY SLOT A BIT
FURTHER TO THE WEST AND EVEN INTO THE BILLINGS AREA BY 12 UTC. THE
LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGES SHOW THE DEVELOPING DRY SLOT ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO AND INTO PART OF WYOMING SOUTH OF RIVERTON. IT IS
NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST AT THIS POINT...SO WE DECIDED TO JUST KEEP
MOST OVERNIGHT POPS AS THEY WERE ALREADY ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...THE
12 TO 18 UTC POPS WERE REDUCED DOWN INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FROM
SHERIDAN TO BILLINGS...AS WELL AS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT.

WHERE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED AS OF 03 UTC...AN AREA OF
MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING WITHIN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT 300-HPA JET STREAK HAS GENERATED STORMS IN
EASTERN WY. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS ACTIVITY /WHICH CONTAINS LOTS
OF LIGHTNING AS OF MID EVENING/ INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT BETWEEN ABOUT
04 AND 09 UTC. SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 300 K SURFACE
IS ALSO CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT IN THAT TIME FRAME...AND THE
RESULTING QPF SHOULD BE OVER 0.50 INCHES. WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST TO PUSH POPS TO 100 PERCENT OVER THAT ENTIRE AREA AND
TO INCLUDE MORE PROMINENT THUNDERSTORM WORDING ACROSS CARTER AND
POWDER RIVER COUNTIES. NOTE THAT WE ALSO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT TO DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK
TO THE WEST AT SOME POINT...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WAS ONLY ENOUGH
TO LOWER QPF FOR PLACES AT BILLINGS A BIT AT THIS JUNCTURE.

FINALLY...WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
GOING FOR NOW...THOUGH THE SNOW LEVEL IS NEAR 9000 FT MSL AS OF 03
UTC /WITH RAIN EVEN AT COOKE CITY/. FOR THAT REASON...WE DECIDED
TO LOWER MOUNTAIN SNOW TOTALS JUST SLIGHTLY. A SNOW MENTION ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AND
IN FACT WE REMAIN A BIT WARY OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
PLACES LIKE LIVINGSTON. HOWEVER...NOT EVEN THE 00 UTC NAM SUGGESTS
ENOUGH QPF FOR ANY ADVISORIES IN THOSE AREAS. NOTE ALSO THAT THERE
IS NO LONGER A MIX OF SNOW MENTIONED OVERNIGHT FOR BILLINGS...WITH
EVEN THE 00 UTC NAM PRECIPITATION-TYPE ALGORITHM KEEPING THINGS AS
ONLY RAIN GIVEN NEARLY STEADY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
THE 40 F MARK. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

OVERALL PATTERN ADVERTISES DRYER AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. A
SHORTWAVE CRUISES ACROSS THE AREA IN A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WAS STILL STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH. THE ECMWF HAS GOTTEN STRONGER WITH ITS VERSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH KEPT PERSISTENT TIMING OF BEING SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. ALL IN ALL...DID NOT CHANGE GOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS
LOOKS LIKE A SCATTERED POP DAY. THE WARM UP WILL BE TEMPERED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR WARMER WEATHER WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH SEASONAL AVERAGES...WHICH IS IN THE LOWER 70S...BY
THURSDAY WITH 80S BEING ACHIEVABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TWH

.AVIATION...

RAIN AND FOG WILL BRING MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH 06Z. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM KMLS TO
KSHR E THROUGH 06Z AS WELL. RAIN WILL CONTINUE AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE AREA...AND MIX WITH SNOW W OF A ROUNDUP TO KBIL TO KSHR LINE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE MT FROM ROSEBUD
COUNTY E AND OVER EASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY WY. CONDITIONS WILL RANGE
FROM MVFR TO LIFR. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED.

RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE W AND N OF KBIL...INCLUDING OVER
KLVM...SUN MORNING WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS E AND
S OF KBIL...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. ARTHUR

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/051 041/062 042/067 044/067 046/074 050/079 053/081
+6/R 32/W 13/T 32/T 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 036/046 038/060 035/063 037/064 040/072 044/076 046/078
+8/O 42/W 14/T 22/T 11/B 12/W 11/B
HDN 043/055 041/063 042/070 047/070 045/077 049/082 052/084
+6/T 32/W 13/T 42/T 11/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 044/053 039/057 039/066 045/066 046/074 050/079 053/081
+6/T 42/W 11/B 42/T 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 044/059 040/056 040/068 046/066 045/074 049/079 053/081
+4/T 22/W 11/B 43/T 11/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 042/055 038/052 037/064 043/065 045/072 049/078 053/080
+4/T 33/W 11/B 43/T 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 041/055 039/059 037/068 043/065 042/072 046/077 051/079
+4/T 32/W 12/T 32/T 11/B 11/B 11/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 67-68.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

850 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT...
A VERY WET NIGHT IN STORE FOR ALL OF NE MT. LARGE AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. UPPER CENTER
OVER S ID AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY...SURFACE LOW OVER S WY. OVER E
MT...UPPER FLOW BACKING TO S AND BECOMING MORE DIFFLUENT AS WELL.
A DEEP MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AND DEPTH OF THE COOLER AIR IN LOWER
LEVELS IS GOOD FOR STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT TOO. THE AIRMASS CLOSE
TO DEEPLY SATURATED...SO THAT THERE IS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
ALSO...AND HAVE EEPANDED THAT INTO MORNING.

ONE SHORTWAVE PART OF THIS SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
MORNING. A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE ARRIVING TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW
VERY STRONG LIFT AND VORTICITY WITH THIS. HRRR MODEL HAS SHOWN
WIDESPREAD STRONG RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. 12HR PRECIP TOTALS OF AN INCH IN SOME AREAS
EXPECTED. THIS ALREADY SEEN WITH RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING KGGW 88D
PRECIP ECHOES.

UNUSUALLY COLD HIGH TEMPS TODAY. THICKNESSES IN THE UPPER 540S TO
550S DM WOULD INDICATE THIS TO CONTINUE AS A RAIN EVENT. 00Z KGGW
SOUNDING SHOWED WARMING ABOVE 800 MB IN PAST 24 HOURS. THUS
DESPITE THE COLD LOWER LEVEL TEMPS...NOT EXPECTING SNOWFALL AND
CURRENT 8 PM TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT. UPDATED TO
ADJUST POPS...WEATHER...QPF. SIMONSEN

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS
IT IS CLOSED OFF AND CENTERED NOW JUST WEST OF SALT LAKE CITY. LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY WITH AN OCCLUDED
SURFACE LOW ALMOST DIRECTLY UNDER IT. OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW...A
DECENT RAIN SHIELD WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GFS
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST FIX OF ALL THE MODELS ON THIS BUT OF COURSE
IS PROBABLY A BIT TOO WET.

THE RAIN LIFTS INTO SASK SUNDAY WITH DEFORMATION WRAP-AROUND DOWN
INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THIS MAY AFFECT SW
PHILLIPS COUNTY. COLDER AIR WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT
WHERE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW. HAVE ADDED THIS
MENTION IN FOR NORTHERN PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES. WILL NOT
MENTION ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT AS IT IS STILL MORE THAN 24
HOURS OUT.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND LINGERING SHOWERS. WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE STRONGER AND EXTENDED
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THEN. HIGH WIND CONCERNS SHOULD NOT
BE NEEDED AS 850 MB WINDS REMAIN BELOW 50 KTS. JAMBA

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE STACKED CYCLONIC
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL PLACE NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BRING LINGERING BACK DOOR
SHOWERS. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE FOLLOWS WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE REST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE AREA WILL BE HIT WITH A SHORTWAVE
THAT EJECTS ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY REGION THEN DIVES
SOUTH. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH THE INITIAL WAVE SO MAINTAINED
THUNDER IN THE WX GRIDS. THE GFS AND EC TIMING ARE DIFFERENT SO
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG A COLD BOUNDARY
THAT STRADLES NEMONT COULD CONTINUE SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST WHICH
WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT LEFT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AS IS SINCE IT REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE THE
EXTENDED MODELS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A RATHER ZONAL TO PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA OVER ALL. A NARROW TROUGH RUNS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA UP THROUGH MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY WHILE
ANOTHER TROUGH RUNS UP THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK NARROW RIDGE LIES IN BETWEEN FROM IDAHO
THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND UP INTO ALBERTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THE RIDGE WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE
TWO TROUGHS WILL BECOME PINCHED AT ITS BASE ALLOWING FOR SOME
QUICK MOVING CLIPPERS TO PASS OVER IT AND INTO EASTERN MONTANA.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDER ALONG WITH IT. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS IN OTHER PERIODS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS DURING
THIS TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD... A RIDGE TAKES CONTROL FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK ALLOWING WARMER DESERT AIR TO SNEAK IN CREATING A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND. BY THE WEEKEND THIS RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO
BREAK DOWN WITH A LARGE TROUGH PASSAGE... BUT CONFIDENCE ALSO
DROPS OFF RAPIDLY POST SATURDAY. SO THIS COULD CHANGE IN COUPLE
RUNS. GAH

.AVIATION...
A VERY STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...WHICH HAS BEEN SENDING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO
THE NORTH...WILL ITSELF MOVE INTO MONTANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN LIFR TONIGHT
WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20KTS. WEATHER MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN INCREASES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES FURTHER AS IT
BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES. SCT/BLM

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE MILK RIVER BY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A
RESULT OF THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. A HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION.

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE WIND
ADVISORY HEADLINES AS WELL AS REMOVE POPS AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...STILL MONITORING STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CO/KS STATES LINES AND THEY APPEAR TO BE
BUILDING NORTHWARD...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST
AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THEY WILL REACH OUR FORECAST AREA
AS LAST RUN OF HRRR PICKED UP ON THEM AND DIMINISHED THIS ACTIVITY
BEFORE TAKING IT ACROSS OUR AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING TO 30KTS
OR GREATER...WILL CONTINUE AT KGRI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SO
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP WITH A MVFR CIG FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
THEREAFTER...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFT 27/18Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY
INTRODUCED A VCTS FOR THE POST 18Z HOURS SUNDAY AS EXACT TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN LIES WITH THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION IN REGARD TO THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR PROFILER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
THE NV/UT BORDER AREA AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST REGION/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LOOKING AT
THE SURFACE...THE DAY STARTED OUT WITH THE WARM FRONT A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER. THIS WARM
FRONT HAS MADE NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...SITTING JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA...AND TOOK A LITTLE LONGER TO
GET OUT OF THOSE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WITH SOME STUBBORN STRATUS
HANGING AROUND THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE REACHED TO AT LEAST THE 90S
CWA-WIDE...WITH REACHING EVEN NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WAS HELPED BY INCREASED MIXING AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

AS EXPECTED...STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE REGION AND WAA CONTINUES...CERTAINLY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...BUT THERE IS
STILL CONCERN THAT AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OVERALL FORCING IS FAIRLY
WEAK...WITHOUT A EASILY NOTABLE DISTURBANCE WORKING THROUGH THE
REGION WHILE THE MAIN SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LLJ DOES DEVELOP THIS EVENING..BUT BEST CONVERGENCE SHOULD
QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. KEPT THE LOW POPS GOING
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...VERY DIFFICULT TO
NARROW IT DOWN TO A SPECIFIC AREA HAVING BETTER CHANCES THAN
ANOTHER...WITH MODELS THAT DO SHOW THINGS DEVELOPING VARYING ON
LOCATION. THERE ARE BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA TO CAUSE CONCERN...THE
DRYLINE ACROSS/JUST TO THE WEST...AS WELL AS THE WARM FRONT...WHICH
ISNT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT COULD COMPLETELY SAY IT WOULD HAVE NO
IMPACT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND WILL KEEP MENTION GOING
AS IS IN THE HWO. POST 06Z...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING WITH MOST
MODELS KEEPING IT QUIET...THOUGH CONFIDENCE CERTAINLY NOT 100
PERCENT. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP/EVOLVE LATER
TODAY AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. WITH THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE...EXPECTING THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY STILL ON TAP TO BE THE BUSIER DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND THERE REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. BY
12Z SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVING MOVED E/ENE...AND CENTER ROUGHLY OVER
WRN/SCENTRAL MONTANA...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THROUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS LOW
CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST...BY 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER ERN PORTIONS
OF MONTANA...AND BY 12Z MONDAY IS STARTING TO OR HAS MOVED INTO
WRN/CENTRAL ND. THE MAIN SFC FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...AND MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT
WITH ITS LOCATION BY 00Z...HAVING MOVED THROUGH ABOUT THE WRN THIRD
OF THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...LARGER SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER EAST AND THE TROUGH STARTS TO SWING INTO THE
REGION. LOWERING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR THE
CAP TO BE OVERCOME...AND EXPECT THINGS TO START FIRING DURING THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AS WELL AS GOOD SHEAR. HWO ALREADY HAD
MENTION OF VERY LARGE HAIL/WINDS AND TORNADOES...SEE NO REASON THAT
POTENTIAL ISNT STILL IN PLACE...BUT HAIL/WIND REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREATS. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLOODING...THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECT THERE TO BE
HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE FACT THAT THE CWA IS PRETTY DRY WILL HELP LOWER
THE THREAT. MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT WAS TO TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND KEEP
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. REALLY
TRENDED DOWN THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA TO LOW CHANCE POPS...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY LOCATIONS LIKE ODX/LXN SEE VERY LITTLE AS THE MAIN
ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THEIR WEST. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO BE A LITTLE
MORE SPECIFIC WITH TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES COMING BETWEEN
21-06Z. BETWEEN 06-09Z ONLY KEPT LINGERING POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM 09-12Z.

LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE NO HIGH CONFIDENCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME YET...THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD MAY BEAR SOME
WATCHING...AS IT CORRESPONDS TO THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH NOTHING LIKE
THE SCORCHER OF TODAY IN SIGHT.

STARTING OFF MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF
ARE IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STORM-FREE AND RATHER PLEASANT PERIOD
FOR THE HOLIDAY...AS THE PARENT MID LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATES
FROM THE WESTERN ND AREA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STALL
OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...TAKING ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY
SOUTH WITH IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN ANTICIPATED...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 700MB WILL PROMOTE A BIT BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 15-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS DURING
THE DAY. FOLLOWED 12Z NAM 2M TEMPS CLOSELY FOR HIGHS...NUDGING UP
NEB ZONES SLIGHTLY MAINLY INTO THE 76-80 RANGE...WITH LOW 80S
COMMON IN KS. WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS AND MIXING...LOWERED
DEWPOINTS AT LEAST 5 DEGREES MOST AREAS. MONDAY NIGHT...LOWERED
LOW TEMPS A SOLID 3-5 DEGREES THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF DRIER
AIR...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...NOW AIMING
FOR UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW 50S SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
FROM KS ZONES DURING THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED AT LEAST 20 PERCENT
CHANCES ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC EAST-WEST FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
STALL OUT AND START TO LIFT BACK NORTH SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS MENTIONED...PULLED THUNDERSTORM MENTION FROM
KS ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE. AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE NIGHT
HOURS...WOULD THEN EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW ELEVATED STORMS TO CREEP
INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH POPS IN NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES LIKELY STANDING ON SHAKY GROUND AND COULD BE REMOVED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMP WISE...NUDGED DOWN HIGH TUESDAY A FEW
DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH ALL NEB ZONES SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S...AND
KS ZONES MAINLY LOW 80S.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD LIKELY BEARS THE
MOST WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. IN THE BIG PICTURE...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS PRESENT...WITH A RATHER WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE SLIPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SUGGEST MAYBE UP TO 1000 J/K OR SO
MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AREAS...WHICH IN THE PRESENCE OF 40KT OR SO OF
DEEP LAYER COULD YIELD SOME SEVERE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A SOMEWHAT
DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...AND HAVE POPS AT 40-50 PERCENT
AND HIGHEST WED NIGHT. HAVE HIGH TEMPS WED ONLY RANGING FROM MID
60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...AND POTENTIALLY DEEPENS QUITE A BIT OVER THE
MID-SOUTH PER THE GFS SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE...CONTINUED FORCING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
EASILY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...AND HAVE SLIGHT
POPS ALL AREAS. HIGHS CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS MID
60S TO LOW 70S ALL AREAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST STORM FREE
FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MAY ULTIMATELY NEED SOME POPS
ADDED AS INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE FLOW
TURNS A BIT MORE ZONAL. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE. TEMP
WISE...HAVE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGHS FROM FRI INTO SAT...BUT
STILL STRUGGLING TO REACH 80 EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

UPDATE/AVIATION...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

855 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.UPDATE...
A REPORT FROM AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND NEDOR HIGHWAY CAMS SUGGEST DENSE
FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES. ITS
POSSIBLE THE SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS INTERACTING
WITH THE VERY COOL MOIST AIR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 06Z BASED ON THE 00Z RAP MODEL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 04Z.

NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT
AND ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS UNTIL
05Z. MEANWHILE...NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG HIGHWAY 20...IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 05Z. THEREAFTER...FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

AT 19Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE WARM FRONT HAD MADE
ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO NEAR ORD...BROKEN BOW...NORTH
PLATTE AND IMPERIAL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY HAD A PLUME OF 25MM OR GREATER EAST OF A VALENTINE-
NORTH PLATTE LINE. THE SURFACE LAPS DATA INDICATED VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF AN AINSWORTH-THEDFORD-IMPERIAL LINE
WHERE SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WAS AT OR ABOVE 2000J/KG
AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS AT OR BELOW 60J/KG.

DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS THE IMMINENT
CONVECTION. THEN...FOR LATER PERIODS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN. EVEN AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN STATES AND CANADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FAST ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF UPPER SYSTEMS CROSSING
THE AREA ABOUT EVERY 48 HOURS OR SO. BY DAY FIVE...THERE IS ENOUGH
DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS TO UNDERMINE OUR CONFIDENCE
SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

JUDGING FROM THE CURRENT WARM FRONT POSITION...THE NEWLY
DEVELOPING CUMULUS AND THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP VERY SOON ALONG A BURWELL-BROKEN BOW-IMPERIAL LINE
AND INTENSIFY EXPLOSIVELY. THE HOURLY RAPID-REFRESH REFLECTIVITY
LOOP INDICATES THAT. THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD THEN MOVE
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

WIND IS STILL LIKELY TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

BY EARLY TUESDAY...A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND BRINGS ABOUT A RETURN TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
WOULD RAISE THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY
EASTWARD...IT IS POSSIBLE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THAT SCENARIO IS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THUS WE WILL HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

AVIATION...

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH...SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE. NORTH OF THE FRONT...LOW STRATUS IS BLANKETING THE
AREA...WHICH INCLUDES THE KVTN TERMINAL. MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
TO VFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE NOT WARRANTING A MENTION IN THE PREVAILING OR
TEMP FOR THE KLBF TAF...HOW EVER DID MENTION VICINITY. THE ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE NORTH...HOWEVER LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE FOR
KVTN...BUT STILL MENTIONED VCSH...BUT NOT TS YET.

THEN A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
AND LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP UNTIL FRONT GETS FURTHER
EAST...HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANCE DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON CONVECTION
BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT
/10 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ022-056>059-069>071.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004-
005-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

940 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR...SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. AS THIS
LOW MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THIS WEEKEND...THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL NEVADA WILL ACCUMULATE SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW. SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON MEMORIAL DAY.

.UPDATE...INCREASED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DON`T NECESSARILY
THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...JUST DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL BE AS CONFINED
AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOST RECENT NAM AND GFS
LI`S PREDICTED TO BE NEGATIVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA...AND GIVEN
RECENT CU BUILDUPS IN CENTRAL NEVADA. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. RCM

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 313 AM /

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OVERVIEW. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TAPERING OFF OVER NORTHERN NEVADA THIS
MORNING. SOME STRONGER SHOWERS BEGAN DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
NEVADA AFTER MIDNIGHT...RENO WFO HAD SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS AS RNO AIRPORT TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE 40S WITH LIGHT RAIN. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CENTER OF THE
ELONGATED INCOMING UPPER LOW TO BE OVER THE CA/OR BORDER AT THIS
TIME. THE RUC AND NAM 09Z TIMING SEEMS ABOUT RIGHT WHILE THE
GFS/ECMWF MAY BE A LITTLE LATE ON THE TIMING. THE ECMWF AND THE
NAM BOTH DEVELOP SHOWERS WHERE THEY ARE OCCURRING AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER A TAD LATE. THINK THE ENERGY AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BEING
UNDERPLAYED. THAT BEING SAID...CANNOT GET MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACKING OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MODEL DEPICTION OF THE UPPER JET FLOW IS
LEANING TOWARDS BALANCE AT THIS TIME AND THE CORE IS OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER FURTHER DIGGING IS POSSIBLE AS THE
WESTERN CORE IS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER TODAY AND KEEP THE
LOW STRETCHED...ALLOWING FOR DELAYED PRECIPITATION PROGRESS INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DRY AGAIN TODAY IN CENTRAL
NEVADA. HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE ZONES 455 AND 457
AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 035 AND ZONES 041. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
WHITE PINE COUNTY. THINKING GREAT BASIN PARK AREA WILL SEE
STRONGEST WINDS BUT ELY GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THE LAST TWO MODEL
RUNS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED...THE GREAT BASIN PARK BASE
COULD GET OVER 50 MPH. MOST OF THE QUANTIFIABLE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY TODAY AS THE UPPER ENERGY PULLS THE
MOISTURE AWAY FROM MOST OF THE CWFA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
6500 FEET OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH. THE MU CAPE IS LOW SO DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
LOW MOVES INTO NEVADA.

SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS PURPORTED TO MOVE
THROUGH TONOPAH AND THEN LIFT NORTH AND TRACK THROUGH NE NV. AN
INTENSE PRECIPITATION CORE IS PROPOSED BY THE MODELS STRETCHING
FROM TONOPAH THROUGH NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THINK THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EAST OF THIS CORE WHERE THE MOST INSTABILITY
IS APPEARING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STACKED LOW AND UNDER THE
110KT JET FEATURE.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BELOW 6500 FEET HOWEVER NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE RUBY MOUNTAINS
COULD ACCUMULATE 4-6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

NOT EXPECTING TRAVEL PROBLEMS AS THE SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT RECREATION ISSUES WILL ARISE FOR PERSON
OUTDOORS ON THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. QUIET AND DRY
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LITTLE TO DISCUSS. COOL NW
FLOW SUNDAY BEHIND DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RECOVERING TO THE 60S. FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL MEMORIAL DAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY 500 MB RIDGING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 00Z
ECMWF/GFS BOTH FORECAST PEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTENSITY AT 586 DM
ACROSS NEVADA ON THURSDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WITH A
WARMING TREND AND FEW CLOUDS. ALL POP GRIDS ZERO MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. NEXT FRIDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 IN
THE SW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS. BT

AVIATION...STRONG STORM SYSTEM IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 12Z FRI
WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN NYE COUNTY 12Z SAT. MID CLOUD DECKS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH 00Z. -SHRA MOST LIKELY AT
KWMC/NW NEVADA THROUGH 00Z. -SHRA/TSRA WILL EXPAND ACROSS NEVADA
00-12Z SAT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES.

PRIMARY IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS IS EXPECTED 12Z SAT-00Z SUN
WITH NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA. CIGS/VIS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT TIMES WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. BT

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONES 455 AND 457
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT FOR WIND AND RH COMBINATION CONCERN. MAIN
CONCERN IS EASTERN 457 AND SOUTHEAST 455. GREAT BASIN PARK AREA
COULD EXCEED 50 MPH AT BASE LEVEL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY PAST 11 PM
TONIGHT HOWEVER RH LEVELS WILL INCREASE THUS REDUCING CONCERN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN ZONES
TODAY...AND EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET. SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MEMORIAL DAY AS DRIER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

93/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

313 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BELOW 6500 FEET HOWEVER NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE RUBY MOUNTAINS
COULD ACCUMULATE 4-6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

NOT EXPECTING TRAVEL PROBLEMS AS THE SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT RECREATION ISSUES WILL ARISE FOR PERSON
OUTDOORS ON THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. QUIET AND DRY
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LITTLE TO DISCUSS. COOL NW
FLOW SUNDAY BEHIND DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RECOVERING TO THE 60S. FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL MEMORIAL DAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY 500 MB RIDGING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 00Z
ECMWF/GFS BOTH FORECAST PEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTENSITY AT 586 DM
ACROSS NEVADA ON THURSDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WITH A
WARMING TREND AND FEW CLOUDS. ALL POP GRIDS ZERO MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. NEXT FRIDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 IN
THE SW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS. BT

.AVIATION...STRONG STORM SYSTEM IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 12Z FRI
WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN NYE COUNTY 12Z SAT. MID CLOUD DECKS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH 00Z. -SHRA MOST LIKELY AT
KWMC/NW NEVADA THROUGH 00Z. -SHRA/TSRA WILL EXPAND ACROSS NEVADA
00-12Z SAT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES.

PRIMARY IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS IS EXPECTED 12Z SAT-00Z SUN
WITH NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA. CIGS/VIS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT TIMES WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. BT

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONES 455 AND 457
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT FOR WIND AND RH COMBINATION CONCERN. MAIN
CONCERN IS EASTERN 457 AND SOUTHEAST 455. GREAT BASIN PARK AREA
COULD EXCEED 50 MPH AT BASE LEVEL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY PAST 11 PM
TONIGHT HOWEVER RH LEVELS WILL INCREASE THUS REDUCING CONCERN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN ZONES
TODAY...AND EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET. SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MEMORIAL DAY AS DRIER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE
COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

92/99/99/92

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

337 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ENDING QUICKLY FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN NOSE INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A DRY AND WARM START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND VERY
WARM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
DEVELOPED A FEW HOURS AGO BETWEEN BUF AND ROC HAVE NOW ALL BUT
DISSIPATED...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT IN WAYNE/ONTARIO
COUNTIES. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST...ALL THE WAY
BACK NEAR LONDON ONTARIO AT 19Z. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH TRY TO REGENERATE WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THIS POORLY
SUPPORTED ENVIRONMENT.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ALL OF THE LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK IN
THE VICINITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...NOT LENDING MUCH SUPPORT
FOR SUSTAINED INFLOW. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...
WITH OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTING 1500-2000J/KG OF SBCAPE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MARGINAL AT AROUND 35 KNOTS...WITH THE BULK OF
THE STRONGER SHEAR DISPLACED WELL NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS VERY
LIMITED AND WILL BE RELEGATED TO CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
BRIEFLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH REGARDS TO RAIN POTENTIAL...EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO REMAIN
SCATTERED IN NATURE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SCATTERED WORDING THERE. FARTHER WEST...
THERE IS STILL SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPSWING IN CUMULUS
FIELDS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THIS SMALL CHANCE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND
CENTRAL NY BY MID EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
NOSE DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NORTHERN NY OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND MID 50S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG
HILL REGION.

SATURDAY THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. SOME MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE FILTERING
THROUGH. 850MB TEMPS STILL AROUND +13C IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S NORTH COUNTRY. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OFF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORE COOLER.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND EXTENDING
SOUTH TO NEW YORK WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING TO CENTRAL NY DURING SUNDAY. THE PATTERN
DEPICTED BY 12Z NAM SHOWS INDICATIONS OF A MIDWESTERN MCS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE THERMAL/THICKNESS
GRADIENT AND ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS...A NOTCH ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE...AND CONCENTRATE THE
HIGHER POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TIER. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCH...THUS SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINS...BUT THE OVERALL QPF VALUES WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE...EVEN MID
60S FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND SOME LOCALES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY REACHING THE UPPER
80S.

UPPER RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL YIELD A SUPPRESSION TO
PRECIP...AND BRING VERY WARM TEMPS. LINGERING PRECIP WILL SLIDE TO
THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE 60S
AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TO SWEEP A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...THEN A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE BULK OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SPREAD INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...
POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE KART AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER
SOUTH...STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SPARSE...WITH A FEW
STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NY. GIVEN SPARSE COVERAGE...WILL JUST INCLUDE A VCSH
QUALIFIER AT KIAG-KJHW-KROC FOR THE MID AFTERNOON. KBUF WILL BE
WITHIN A STABLE LAKE SHADOW FROM LAKE ERIE...AND WILL HAVE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF SEEING ANYTHING.

FOR THE MOST PART VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO FORM MAY
PRODUCE VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER RAIN.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
BY SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH VFR PREVAILING AS A BUBBLE OF
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES OUT OF ONTARIO AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...PRODUCING WAVES IN THE
2-3 FOOT RANGE BRIEFLY AT THE NORTHEAST ENDS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THE TRADITIONAL
KICKOFF TO THE BOATING SEASON ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT WAVES TO
RUN UNDER 2 FEET THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES POSSIBLE.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

530 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A STORM ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING... BUT CHANCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE... GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT WITH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST PART OF MORNING FOR MVFR CEILINGS AS
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSED 305 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012/

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION... LOCAL WRF... RUC AND HRRR
HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OR NEAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. EVEN IF STORMS
DEVELOP... WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BE ISOLATED AND THEREFORE 20 POPS
MIGHT BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE... BUT WILL LEAVE 20S IN THE WEST FOR
THIS EVENING. IF STORMS DO GO... THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS
HIGH ENOUGH THAT SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LIKELY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION ON SATURDAY... BUT RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
/ALBEIT MAINLY TO OUR NORTH/ AND THEN AS A SURFACE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THERE STILL IS DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE
SURFACE FEATURES ARE LOCATED AS UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES INTO ZONAL
FLOW EARLY-MID WEEK NEXT WEEK... BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
JUSTIFIED. AS PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
LATER IN THE WEEK... THERE ARE HINTS OF POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT
IN THE PLAINS. THIS HAS BEEN THE GENERAL FORECAST FOR A DAY OR TWO
AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 91 68 89 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 72 95 68 92 / 20 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 94 68 92 / 10 10 10 10
GAGE OK 73 93 68 92 / 20 10 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 73 91 70 89 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 71 90 67 89 / 0 0 10 10

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

305 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1103 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE NEW YORK BORDER. ANY STORMS
WILL BE FAST MOVING AND COULD BRING WITH THEM SOME BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ON MEMORIAL DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ENDING THIS PERIOD OF HIGHER
HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TODAY. AHEAD OF
THIS THE REGION IS WARM AND MOIST. AFTERNOON CAPES QUITE HIGH AND
WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY. STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING THOUGH SO ANY HEAVY RAINS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE THREAT BEING MORE GUSTY WINDS AND
ISOLATED HAIL. MODELS DO SHOW THE BEST DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN NYS...THOUGH 4KM NAM AND HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION FORMING
IN OUR CWA. DRIER AIR ENTERS CWA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
BUILD.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD LIE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA ON
SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. EXPECT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK LEE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER 2-3 DAYS OF VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH ENSEMBLE MAXES WARMING WELL THROUGH THE 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEPRESS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO ADJUST BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

REGARDING RAINFALL...WHILE AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. A
WAVE MAY FORM ALONG THE STALLING FRONT AND BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PRETTY REDUNDANT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VFR
REGION WIDE. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE..THOUGH
THE MAIN FOCUS AREA TODAY WILL BE THE NW MTNS AND POSSIBLE THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD SPILL TO
THE CENTRAL PA REGION...AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NE. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY IN ANY STORMS...WITH STORMS ENDING AROUND
SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATOCU INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN AREAS BEING VCTY OF MDT...LNS AND IPT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING
SHOWER/STORM CAUSING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS.

TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
AVIATION...ROSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

909 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT/
MAIN UPDATES FOR THE EVENING ARE TO DOWNPLAY THE SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
EVENING HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN STORM TOPS UP TO 40 KFT AND ANY
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION CORE ABOVE ABOUT 25 KFT. ALTHOUGH STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE FORMED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF ENHANCED SURFACE
FRONTOGENESIS INDICATED BY RAP ANALYSIS AND SURFACE WINDS...STORMS
WERE LIKELY ELEVATED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION STILL
PRESENT ON THE 00Z KOAX SOUNDING...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IN SPITE
OF THIS...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HAILER SPIKING UP IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...AND COULD STILL SEE MORE ROBUST
ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN LATER TONIGHT.
THE BEST SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE FOCUSED IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...SO
LIKELY WILL NOT BE REALIZED BY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS
AREA...SO DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP EITHER LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...AND THINK THAT WINDS
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ACCELERATING THROUGH THE INVERSION AS WELL...
SO THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE UP TO 2 INCH HAIL AND POSSIBLY A WIND
GUST UP TO 60 MPH. /LAFLIN

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
STRATUS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL
LIFTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH AROUND 05Z WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE JAMES RIVER
AREA. SEVERE STORMS WILL POSE THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL AS RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. TAF SITES
APPEAR TO BE ON THE FRINGE OF STORM POTENTIAL...BUT PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW FOR THUNDER MENTION AT FSD AND SUX. BETTER THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL BE SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE EAST OF A TYNDALL
TO DE SMET SOUTH DAKOTA LINE. AGAIN...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY...INCLUDING IN FSD AND SUX.

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT/
STILL A TOUGH CALL ON TONIGHT WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY ALOFT. STILL
A FAIRLY STOUT CAP NEAR 800 MB. RAP SOUNDINGS WEAKEN THE CAP
BETWEEN 4-6 PM...BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. CERTAINLY SOME MASS
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE SURFACE WARMFRONT
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT EVEN SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...ANOTHER INDICATION OF THE STRONG CAP.
HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION THE PAST FEW RUNS
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE AS ITS
INITIALIZATION ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE TOO WARM IN THE MODEL BY
5-10 DEGREES. INCREASING JET ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL AID IN ASSENT
SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET AROUND THE CAP.
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. IT IS
CERTAINLY UNSTABLE ALOFT WITH 3500-4000 J/KG OF CAPE. IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP DOWN SOUTH...AND THAT IS A BIG IF...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THEM TO FOLLOW THE 925 MB FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND AND LOW LEVEL JET...GENERALLY WARMER THAN IT
HAS BEEN MUCH OF THE DAY. /BT

SUNDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE A VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY
WITHOUT MUCH THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 300 PM CDT.
BETTER FORCING WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH THE APPROACH OF A
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE MAIN AFFECTS OF THIS
WAVE WILL BE FELT FROM ABOUT 21Z THROUGH 9Z AND WILL HIT THE POPS
THE HARDEST DURING THIS TIME. WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT/DRY LINE MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM AROUND A
BROOKINGS TO YANKTON LINE EAST. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME BUT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT IN PARTS OF
PIPESTONE AND MOODY COUNTIES AS WELL AS EASTERN
WOODBURY...CHEROKEE...CLAY IOWA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES. BELIEVE THAT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO GET AN INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL WHICH
COULD SET A FEW CREEKS/STREAMS AND RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS IF IT
FALLS IN THE RIGHT SPOT. THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WITH HE COLD FRONT ALOFT MOVING IN THROUGH
THE DAY THE CAP WILL WEAKEN QUITE A BIT AND FROM ABOUT 22Z ON WILL
BE DIFFICULT NOT TO SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS STORMS DEVELOP THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG SFC BASED CAPE AND MODERATE 40 KNOT OR SO BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0 TO 3KM AND 0 TO 6KM LAYERS. WHILE THE 0 TO 1KM BULK SHEAR IS
TO POSSIBLY BE UP AROUND 20 KNOTS THE DIRECTIONAL ASPECT IS SEVERELY
LACKING WITH FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SO LIKELY LOOKING AT THE THREAT FOR HALF
DOLLAR TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND BY ABOUT 9Z OR
10Z LIKELY BE EAST OF THE CWA. COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR WILL
ADVECT IN SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK COOL AND BREEZY AS WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW KEEPS DRY AND MIXY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 40S
TO NEAR 50.

TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE COOL DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

IN THE LATTER PERIODS(WED/SAT)...TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED. WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE MUCH ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF JET MAX...SO WILL LEAVE MID
RANGE POPS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE LOOKING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BASICALLY PLANNING ON 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 70 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. /08

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

650 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT/
STILL A TOUGH CALL ON TONIGHT WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY ALOFT. STILL
A FAIRLY STOUT CAP NEAR 800 MB. RAP SOUNDINGS WEAKEN THE CAP
BETWEEN 4-6 PM...BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. CERTAINLY SOME MASS
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE SURFACE WARMFRONT
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT EVEN SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...ANOTHER INDICATION OF THE STRONG CAP.
HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION THE PAST FEW RUNS
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE AS ITS
INITIALIZATION ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE TOO WARM IN THE MODEL BY
5-10 DEGREES. INCREASING JET ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL AID IN ASSENT
SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET AROUND THE CAP.
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. IT IS
CERTAINLY UNSTABLE ALOFT WITH 3500-4000 J/KG OF CAPE. IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP DOWN SOUTH...AND THAT IS A BIG IF...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THEM TO FOLLOW THE 925 MB FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND AND LOW LEVEL JET...GENERALLY WARMER THAN IT
HAS BEEN MUCH OF THE DAY. /BT

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND BY ABOUT 9Z OR
10Z LIKELY BE EAST OF THE CWA. COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR WILL
ADVECT IN SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE COOL DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

347 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
346 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

AT 3 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG 600-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA...AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...THERE IS A MORE
ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG 800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LATEST RAP ALONG WITH SEVERAL OF THE MESO MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE 600-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL SHIFT NORTH TOWARD
THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...AND BE LOCATED BETWEEN
THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 800-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT. THESE
FRONTOGENESIS BANDS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES LOOK LOW FOR LATE TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
THE AREAS OF ELEVATED BANDS OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES GRADUALLY CLIMB DURING THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEY ARE
RUNNING 1 TO 3K ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...
AND FROM 3 TO 4K ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER IS VERY HIGH ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE BOTH THE SURFACE BASED
AND ML CINS INCREASE SO MUCH THAT THE CONVECTION BECOMES ELEVATED.
BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE CAPES WILL BE LOCATED ABOVE
10K FEET. WITH THE STORMS BEING SO ELEVATED...THIS ELIMINATES THE
SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KILOMETERS WHICH TAKES VERY FAVORABLE BULK
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND MAKES THEM LESS FAVORABLE. TAKING ALL OF
THIS INTO ACCOUNT...THINKING THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS
TO BE SLIGHT WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ON SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING...AND THEN
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. VERY WARM MOVES IN ALOFT. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 22C IN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND TO 24C
IN THE NAM/WRF. IF SOILS DO NOT MOISTEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE A VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH THE LOWER AND MID 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...AND NEAR 90 ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

IN ADDITION TO SUNDAYS TEMPERATURES BEING A BIT PROBLEMATIC...THE
DEW POINTS MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S. HOWEVER THE BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS BEEN ADVECTED
OFF OF THE HIGH PLAINS. MIXING DOWN THIS DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTS IN
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON HOW FAR EAST
WILL THE COLD FRONT GET. ALSO THE CAPES MAY BE OVER DONE IF THE
DEW POINTS ARE TOO HIGH. WHILE THE INSTABILITY MAY BE IN
QUESTION...THE 0-6KM SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. IF SEVERE WEATHER HAPPENED TO
DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY
346 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MEMORIAL DAY. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...THE CAPES LOOK TO BE LOW WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THIS WOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW ML CAPES
TO CLIMB INTO THE 1 TO 2K RANGE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS...A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE ACROSS WISCONSIN. MAIN THREATS LOOK TO LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FORECASTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT. WARM
FRONT OVER MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...A BAND OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BIG CONCERN
ON WHERE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP. THE 25.12Z NAM SUGGESTS
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE INTO THE FRONT OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD PLACE THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST IN THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND. THE
25.06Z HI-RES ARW AND NMM DO NOT OFF ANY CLARITY TO THE SITUATION
AS THEY OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THE ARW WOULD SUGGEST MOST OF
THE AREA STAYING DRY TONIGHT WITH A MCS COMING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WHILE THE NMM WANTS TO KEEP EVERYTHING GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT AND
HAVE JUST GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER FOR BOTH TAF SITES AS TOO
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A TIME FOR CATEGORICAL THUNDER TO OCCUR.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
251 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
317 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT...
ALONG WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.

CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA (2-2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL)...RIDGING BUILDING UP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UPPER
MICHIGAN. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES.
00Z MPX SOUNDING SHOWED SOME OF THE DRYING COMING IN ABOVE 700MB.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...SOUTHWEST TO SPRINGFIELD MO...THEN TURNS INTO A WARM
FRONT CONNECTING TO A LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTH OF THAT
WARM FRONT...DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70. COMPARE THESE TO THE AROUND 50
DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE ADVECTED IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT RISES AT 500MB UP AND DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
BETWEEN 12Z TODAY AND 12Z SATURDAY...500MB HEIGHTS RISE 180 METERS
AT LA CROSSE. ACCOMPANYING THESE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE AN
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE PLAINS...PROPELLING THE WARM
FRONT IN OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD AT A RAPID CLIP. BY 12Z SATURDAY...VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING I-80
IN IOWA. THE MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN SUCH RAPID
CHANGES GOING ON. EXPECT THE MORNING TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE FORECAST
AREA STILL FEELING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING 800MB TO 700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORTED IS NOTED...WHICH WILL AT A MINIMUM CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
ALTOSTRATUS. SOME MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OUT OF THESE CLOUDS...MOSTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND EVEN THAT MOSTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE ALTOSTRATUS...
WHICH MAY ABSORB SOME OF THE RAIN. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY PRECIP
TO SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THINGS GET A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES...NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER IOWA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE QUESTION IS WILL IT
TURN INTO AN MCS OR NOT...SINCE THAT WOULD LIKELY SLOW THE WARM
FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS FOR LATER IN THE FORECAST...AND IMPACT
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IMPACTS THE AREA GIVEN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED CORFIDI VECTORS. MAIN UPPER JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...SO NO UPPER DIVERGENCE HELP. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE
RISING WITH NO SHORTWAVE EVIDENT...SO NO SUPPORT THERE. IT SEEMS THE
ONLY THING GOING FOR AN MCS IS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH IS
BROAD. THEREFORE...THINK WHAT MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT WITH QPF...
I.E SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH WITH THE
FRONT SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACH 3.5-4
KM...ANY SHOWERS LIKELY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH LACK OF AN
MCS OR STATIONARY BOUNDARY PREVENTS ANY FLOOD CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH 1-6 KM SHEAR IS 40 OR MORE KNOTS...SKINNY CAPE AND HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS MAY KEEP THE MAIN THREAT BESIDES RAIN TO GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE STORMS. COOLER DAY ON TAP TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 8-10C
AND INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE 70S SEEM REASONABLE.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESS AS THE TROUGHING IN CALIFORNIA LIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY. WARM FRONT SHOULD APPROACH I-90 BY 00Z SUNDAY. SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT...A PLUME OF HOT AND HUMID AIR REFLECTED BY 850MB TEMPS
OF 20C PLUS...AS WELL AS THOSE DEWPOINTS SEEN IN OKLAHOMA...WILL
ADVECT IN. THEREFORE...PLENTIFUL CAPE IS LIKELY ON AND ADVECTING
NORTH WITH THE FRONT. PROBLEM WE MAY HAVE CONTEND WITH FOR
SATURDAY...AFTER ANY MORNING CONVECTION RELATED TO TONIGHT...IS
CAPPING ADVECTING NORTH OF THE FRONT AT 750MB. MLCIN VALUES ARE
SUBSTANTIAL...UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG OR SO FOR THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF
THE MODEL QPF ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY AFTERNOON...SEEMS TO BE
RELATED TO BELOW THE CAP. THEREFORE...NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF IT IS
REAL. HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
I-94 AS A RESULT. THIS MATCHES TOO WITH THE 25.00Z REGIONAL
CANADIAN...LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN AND HIRES WRF-ARW RUN FROM NCEP. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON IS NORTH OF I-94 WHERE LESS CAP
EXISTS. CAP...WARM AIR AND FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH DID KEEP SOME CHANCES NORTH
OF I-94 WHERE RE-INVIGORATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY ALLOW CONVECTION
TO GO. VERY WARM NIGHT ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. 850MB TEMPS
OF 22C AT 18Z PLUS PLENTY OF SUN AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 90S. STAYED AT THE HIGH END
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN THE SETUP. IF TEMPERATURES LOOK WARMER
IN LATER FORECASTS...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO START
MOVING EAST...DRIVING A COLD FRONT TO NEAR I-35 BY 12Z MONDAY. DPVA
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG WITH SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
SUPPORT...LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND POSSIBLY NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE WHEN THEY
INITIALLY FORM IN THE EVENING WEST OF THE AREA...AS INDICATED TOO BY
THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK SEVERE PROBABILITIES. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL BE
SEVERE BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH...AS THE
MLCAPE REALLY TAILS OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SHEAR IS THERE...
THOUGH...ENOUGH PROBABLY TO WARRANT THE GENERAL SLIGHT RISK. WITH A
BREEZY NIGHT AND COLD FRONT/PRECIPITATION NOT COMING UNTIL
LATE...ANTICIPATING ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. LOWS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
317 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

AFTER A HOT SUNDAY...THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A PATTERN SHIFT
TO ONE COOLER THAN NORMAL. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMING STUCK OVER
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN FACT...COME THURSDAY...THERE
IS A RE-ENFORCING POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS MONDAY...IN PARTICULAR THE
COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
MID-DAY. HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE ON THIS FRONT IS A QUESTION.
THE CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MAY END UP FALLING APART DUE TO
LOSS OF INSTABILITY. THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...DEPENDING
SPECIFICALLY ON TIMING...AFTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY BUILDS THE
CONVECTION COULD FIRE ON THE FRONT AFTER IT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ONLY 30-50 AT THIS TIME.
A FEW MODELS...THE 25.00Z ECMWF AND OUR LOCAL WRF RUN...SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A NEARLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF THERE IS ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE...SEEMS LIKE THAT WOULD OCCUR IN OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS.

MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS ENTER THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THAT POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. NOTE...THOUGH...THAT IT
IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
STAYS AWAY FROM THE AREA ...THUS ONLY THE 20-40 PERCENT VALUES.

ONE THING WE NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR TOO MAY BE FROST LATER OUT. THE
25.00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS OVER TAYLOR COUNTY DROPPING TO AROUND
0C AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIGHT NOW NO
FROST OR EVEN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FROST IS IN THE FORECAST...BUT
SOMETHING AGAIN TO WATCH.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
317 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

635 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
317 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT...
ALONG WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
317 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
635 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOOK FOR A SCT-BKN CLOUD
DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH BASES IN THE 10 TO
12 KFT RANGE. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 6 TO
8 KFT RANGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...LIKELY IMPACTING THE TAF SITES. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO AROUND 5KFT...AND GUSTY
WINDS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AT TIMES. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
317 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

317 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
317 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT...
ALONG WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
317 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.AVIATION...
1110 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

CONCERN FOR FOG AT KLSE EARLY FRI MORNING AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND
WINDS LOOK LIGHTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. WITH RAIN SATURATING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG. SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SUB 1SM BR IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER JUST RIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN/T THERE AT THIS TIME. WILL LEAVE AT 2SM BR...BUT OBS AND TRENDS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS...WITH GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD DECK FRIDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME -SHRA OUT OF A 6-8
KFT DECK IN THE EVENING AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WORKS WITH THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION. BETTER CHANCES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. COULD BE A
PERIOD OF MVFR...BUT VFR LOOKS MORE PROBABLE RIGHT NOW.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRI...SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO PUSH NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
NORTHEAST.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
317 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1105 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE SINCE 12Z AND CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AT 1530Z WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN
CARBON TO NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN OVER EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE THERE ARE MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THAT WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND NORTH PORTIONS.

CLOUD BASES HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LIFT OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL STILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE AREA AND WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW ACTUALLY INCREASES TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO. DENSE FOG CONTINUES AT 16Z OVER THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE...BUT MAY NEED
TO EXTEND THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ALSO...WIND
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE LARAMIE VALLEY DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS WITH THOSE SPEEDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 749 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012/...

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY OVER AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. IN A RECENT UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA UNTIL 18Z. ALSO MOST OF THE
SHOWERS PER AREA RADARS WERE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST PARTS
OF THE CWA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE LIGHT RAIN. SNOW ALSO HAS BEEN FALLING
ABOVE 8500 FEET MSL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE MORNING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012/...

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA METARS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. WYDOT WEBCAMS SHOWING THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THINKING IS...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
THIS MORNING WHERE CHEYENNE WILL GO DOWN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. MORE WIDESPREAD AND DENSER CLOUDS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z WHEN ALL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AND
KCYS LOOK TO GO DOWN TO LIFR...PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CLAYCOMB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

TODAY...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PREDICTING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID
LEVELS AND POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND LIE ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST
OF INTERSTATE 25...ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD. A LOW
AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP ALONG INTERSTATE
25...AND IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ERUPT ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG INTERSTATE 25.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS EVEN MORE TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST WITH
MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. BOUNDARY LAYER PROGS
SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG WILL BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO
SCOTTSBLUFF LINE CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITATION AIDED
BY UPSLOPE LIFT.

SATURDAY...STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WYOMING AND COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON INDUCING SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON. A WARM
FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. A WELL PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FROM DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF. IF WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
CAN BE ELIMINATED...AND ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING OCCURS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT TO DIMINISH LOW CLOUDS...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ERUPT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY NORTH OF
A CASPER TO SIDNEY LINE...WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WITH PROGGED 0 TO 3 KM HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING
200...A FEW ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A CASPER TO
SIDNEY LINE...WITH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. DRY SLOT
AND DRY PUNCH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD THE CAPE BE REALIZED. WARMER MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES
PREFERRED PER 700 MB TEMPERATURE PROGS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY EVENING ON A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO. 700MB
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW FORECAST AROUND 65KTS AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. AT THE VERY LEAST...I THINK OUR WIND PRONE AREAS ARE GOING
TO SEE WARNING LEVEL WINDS AND WENT AHEAD WITH A WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS. PRECIP HERE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION BEING OUT NEAR THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WHERE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEPS
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN UPSLOPING CONDITIONS OUT THAT WAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE SLOW TO INCREASE AS GFS KEEPS 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C THROUGH TUESDAY. BIG WARM UP STARTS
WEDNESDAY WHEN 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +12C. THAT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTH INTO
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...KNOCKING 700MB TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPING FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE HIGH PARKS ITSELF OVER WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WILL PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN SET TO MOVE
NORTH OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO...BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA.
FORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE AFTERNOON MIN HUMIDITIES WILL STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
CHECK FOR THE MOST PART.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY FOR WYZ106-
WYZ110-WYZ116-WYZ117.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FOR WYZ116-WYZ117.
NE...NONE.

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
UPDATE...WEILAND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

749 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012/...

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

CLAYCOMB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

FIRE WEATHER...

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY FOR WYZ106-
WYZ110-WYZ116-WYZ117.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FOR WYZ116-WYZ117.
NE...NONE.

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
UPDATE...WEILAND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

543 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

CLAYCOMB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

FIRE WEATHER...

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY FOR WYZ106-
WYZ110-WYZ116-WYZ117.
NE...NONE.

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CLAYCOMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1115 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO WITH ASSOCIATED STAND UP COLD FRONT TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH 12Z...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25KTS
AT COS...PUB AND ALS BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-09Z
AND THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. SMOKE FROM NEW MEXICO WILDFIRES
AND DUST SUSPENDED WITHIN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS AFFECTING TAF
SITES WITH VFR CIGS OF 040-060 AND OCCASIONALLY REDUCED VIS TO AOB
6SM BEING REPORTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE LESSER EFFECTS OF SAID
SMOKE AND DUST PARTICLES TOMORROW...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25KTS AT TAF SITES ONCE AGAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -MW

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.

A STRONG UPR LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACRS ERN ID AND WRN WY TONIGHT...AND MOVING INTO EASTERN MT
BY SUN AFTERNOON.

ONE MINOR CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THAT IF THE WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT...THE TEMPS COULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING.

LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ221-222.

23/23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

120 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL AT
LEAST THROUGH 13Z-15Z. THE LOCATION OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE PENINSULA SHOULD RESULT IN A LIGHT MEAN WIND
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AND DICTATE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED AT ALL THE
TERMINALS FROM MID MORNING ON. THE MEAN STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCED BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF BERYL, WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW DOMINATING
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD INDUCE, NOT ONLY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF S. FLA, AND THEREFORE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS, BUT ALSO SHOULD STEER ANY STORM CLOSER TO THE ERN TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON VCTS WILL BE INDICATED IN
ALL ERN TAFS. ON THE OTHER HAND...WL EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO STAY
AWAY FROM KAPF.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 73 87 75 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 74 87 76 / 50 40 40 40
MIAMI 89 73 88 75 / 40 30 40 30
NAPLES 89 74 88 73 / 30 30 40 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

253 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
739 PM CDT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY...BUT SLOWLY
BECOMING LESS LIKELY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS AS IF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS
WINNING. SO...WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAVE FORECAST AS IS BUT CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATEST TRENDS AND UPDATES.

RODRIGUEZ

.DISCUSSION...
338 PM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.CLIMATE...

...RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MAY 27TH...

529 PM...CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH AT ORD OF 96 ON
SUNDAY...MAY 27TH. THE ORD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 94 SET IN
1911.

CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH OF 95 AT RFD ON SUNDAY...MAY
27TH. THE RFD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 92 SET IN 1978.

RECORDS FOR ORD...
HIGH TEMP/YEAR HIGH MINIMUM TEMP/YEAR

SUN MAY 27TH 94/1911 75/1911
MON MAY 28TH 93/1977 74/2006

RECORDS FOR RFD...

SUN MAY 27TH 92/1978 71/1914
MON MAY 28TH 93/2006 69/2006

RODRIGUEZ

.FIRE WEATHER...
451 PM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* INCREASING SOUTH WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTERNOON
* LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO
SOUTHERLY BY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SPEEDS LIKELY TO PICK UP TOWARD
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY ATTAIN SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20KT OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD
SEE WINDS DECREASE A BIT AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARMER HEAT ISLAND COULD ALLOW FOR
CHICAGO METRO TERMINALS TO DEVELOP SOME OCCASSIONAL GUSTINESS
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO INCREASE THE THREAT OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM URBAN
HEAT ISLAND WHERE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 30 KT. CHANCE OF
TSRA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...VFR.

MDB

.MARINE...
253 AM CDT

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS VEERING TO MORE SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT ADVECTING OVER THE STILL CHILLY LAKE WILL
RESULT IN STRONGLY STABLE CONDITIONS...LIMITING WINDS AND
PARTICULARLY WAVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
PROGGED TO GET STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAMPING UP OF WINDS
MONDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING
TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH INITIALLY LOOKS SOMEWHAT STABLE TUESDAY BEFORE
STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS/WAVES BUILDING SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT..ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. HIGH BUILDS MID WEEK ONWARD WITH LIGHTER
WINDS DICTATED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY LAND/LAKE BREEZES.

IZZI

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
739 PM CDT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY...BUT SLOWLY
BECOMING LESS LIKELY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS AS IF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS
WINNING. SO...WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAVE FORECAST AS IS BUT CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATEST TRENDS AND UPDATES.

RODRIGUEZ

.DISCUSSION...
338 PM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.CLIMATE...

...RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MAY 27TH...

529 PM...CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH AT ORD OF 96 ON
SUNDAY...MAY 27TH. THE ORD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 94 SET IN
1911.

CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH OF 95 AT RFD ON SUNDAY...MAY
27TH. THE RFD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 92 SET IN 1978.

RECORDS FOR ORD...
HIGH TEMP/YEAR HIGH MINIMUM TEMP/YEAR

SUN MAY 27TH 94/1911 75/1911
MON MAY 28TH 93/1977 74/2006

RECORDS FOR RFD...

SUN MAY 27TH 92/1978 71/1914
MON MAY 28TH 93/2006 69/2006

RODRIGUEZ

.FIRE WEATHER...
451 PM CDT

RODRIGUEZ

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* INCREASING SOUTH WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTERNOON
* LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 30 KT. CHANCE OF
TSRA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...CHANCE TSRA.

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...VFR.

MDB

.MARINE...
247 PM CDT

TRS

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

521 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

THROUGH THE MORNING...NOT MUCH HELP AT ALL FM SHORT RANGE MODELS IN
TERMS OF FCST FOR REFLECTIVITY/QPF...THEY ALL ARE MISSING SOMETHING
OR OVER-EMPHASIZING ANOTHER. IN OUR AREA...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
LATEST GFS. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF HRRR ARE NOT DOING TOO BAD EITHER.

LOOKING AT THE RUC ANALYSIS SPC MESOANLYSIS PAGE INDICATED SHRA/TSRA
OVR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN ARE BEING DRIVEN BY H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS. SHRA/TSRA OVR FAR NORTHERN MN ARE MORE
TIED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET PUSHING ACROSS ONTARIO.
CONVECTION OVR CNTRL WISCONSIN SEEMS DUE TO PVA FM WAVE OVR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND H85 TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. FINALLY...INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA STEADILY LIFTING NORTH OF MSP TOWARD IWD AREA ARE WITHIN
H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PVA FM SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN
MN. PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER FOR THE MORNING...SHORTWAVE PRESSES ON
INTO EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN WHILE PRIMARY H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTS
MORE NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...MAINLY IMPACTING MINNESOTA. EXPECT
BETTER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OVR FAR WESTERN AND SCNTRL/SOUTHEAST
CWA...THOUGH WITH THE WAVE AND H85 TEMP ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS WILL
KEEP SHRA/TSRA MENTION OVR ALL CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. LATEST RADAR
SHOWS POSSIBLE MCV WITH ENHANCED LIGHTNING OVER NCNTRL WISCONSIN
THAT IS TRACKING MORE SOUTHEAST THAN EAST. THIS DOES CAST SOME
DOUBT IN HOW MUCH SHRA/TSRA WILL REACH NORTHERN CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK.

BY EARLY AFTN...EXPECT ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA ALONG H85 FRONT TO BE
PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST
AHEAD OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT ALONG WITH SE LOW-LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
WILL KEEP BRAKE ON TEMPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. DIFFERENT
STORY OVER SCNTRL/SOUTHWEST CWA AS WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT INTO THE
AREA BY MID-LATE AFTN. DESPITE LATE DAY ARRIVAL...TEMPS EVEN AT
925-900MB ARE VERY WARM SO WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO BOOST TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S. TEMPS WILL HAVE QUITE THE VARIANCE TODAY FM NORTH
TO SOUTH...WITH KEWEENAW LIKELY STUCK IN LOWER 60S AT BEST WITH EAST
WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR NORTH OF WARM FRONT AND READINGS INTO MID-UPR
80S VCNTY KIMT.

WARM SECTOR TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO DUE TO
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING /H85-H7 AND H7-H3 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND FRONTOGENESIS ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. H85 FRONT STRADDLES FAR NW CWA AND ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FRONT COULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...CWA WILL STAY MAINLY
DRY WITH LACK OF FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION. INCREASED MIN TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 60S WEST HALF WITH DWPNTS PUSHING 60F OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM
SECTOR.

MEMORIAL DAY FCST IS AN INTERESTING ONE FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
COLD FRONT WILL BE PRESSING INTO THE UPR LAKES DURING THE AFTN.
ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH FRONT THAN NAM/GFS. CANADIAN LOOKS QUICKER
YET. IN THE MORNING...COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERN CWA DUE TO
H85-H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION...BUT MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL TO NORTH AND WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. SFC FRONT SHOULD BE
INTO CNTRL CWA BY 18Z AND SETTLING OVER EASTERN CWA AROUND 00Z
TUESDAY. TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT COULD GET VERY WARM. ISOLD GUIDANCE
/NAMELY THE BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THE ADJMET AND LOCAL HIGH RES
WRF/ INDICATE AREAS IN THE SCNTRL COULD PUSH INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AS
H85 TEMPS START DAY OFF IN THE 17-18C RANGE. REALLY DID NOT ALTER
GOING FCST MUCH BUT DID SPREAD WARMER TEMPS INTO NCNTRL CWA AS SW
FLOW FAVORS GOING WARMER FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS FM BARAGA TO MARQUETTE
AND MUNISING. SHOULD SEE SOLID MID 80S WITH ISOLD LOWER 90S OVR
SCNTRL CWA /IMT TO MNM/. COOLER READINGS IN THE 70S OVR NW CWA WITH
EARLIER FROPA THERE.

SVR POTENTIAL IS OTHER CONCERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVR CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING. MOST GUIDANCE THOUGH IS TRENDING DRIER
ALOFT WITH MOISTURE IN LOW-LEVELS TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG FRONT. ECMWF HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON TRYING
TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING AND STILL INDICATES THAT
WILL OCCUR. MLCAPES FM THE ECMWF ARE PRETTY TAME THOUGH WITH HARDLY
500J/KG REALIZED OVR CWA IN THE AFTN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE
EASILY 35+ KTS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE INSTABILITY TO BALANCE OUT
THIS EFFECTIVE SHEAR. GIVEN SUCH WARM BLYR TEMPS AND MOIST
LOW-LEVELS WITH DWPNTS AROUND 60F AHEAD OF FRONT...RISK OF STORM
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE...BUT STILL SEEMS THAT
BETTER CHANCES REMAIN SOUTH OF HERE WHERE BETTER QUALITY INSTABILITY
RESIDES. SPC FEATURES MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE DAY2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND CERTAINLY CANNOT SAY AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE COULD NOT
OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MON NIGHT...LINGERING INSTABILITY OF 200-300 J/KG OF MLCAPE ALONG
EXITING COLD FRONT COULD SUSTAIN SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO EARLY MON
EVENING OVER E AND SE PORTIONS OF CWA. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

THE UPPER MID-LOW MOVES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WITH 850MB
TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 5C BY 00Z WED. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STEEPER SFC-700 MB LAPSE
RATES AS THE MID-UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS...THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND ON TUE. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL GET INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
WEST.

SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA WED...KEEPING TEMPS
COOL AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C WED. WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE THU AS 850MB TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND 5C BY
00Z FRI. HIGHS WED WILL BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER FAIRLY STIFF NW WINDS.
LOOK FOR HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SCNTRL.
SFC RDG MOVING OVER AREA WED NIGHT COULD ALSO RESULT IN CHILLY LOW
TEMPS WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AT TYPICAL
INLAND COLD SPOTS. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. HIGHS THU
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. EXPECT MORE WARMING FRI
INTO NEXT SAT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AS MODELS GENERALLY
HAVE 850 MB OF 9-10C BY THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES
MID-UPR RDGG POINTING TOWARD DRY FCST FOR END OF WEEK. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

AS A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...EXPECT ASSOCIATED
BAND OF SHRA AND SCT TSRA TO SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GREATEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THROUGH
12Z. KCMX AND KSAW COULD SEE IFR AND MVFR VIS LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD
DUE TO FOG PRODUCTION FROM THE LAKES BEING ADVECTED INLAND. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT KSAW COULD CAUSE SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS AT KSAW FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ANY SHOWERS/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.P. AND
ALSO FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO BE ADVECTED IN WITH UPSLOPE WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE FALLS OVER WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONG GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVR THE WESTERN
THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN SHOULD DIMINISH WINDS BY LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
REST OF THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO 25 KTS MAY OCCUR ON
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVR WRN AND NCNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COULD THEN
REMAIN GUSTY TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07/JLA
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

146 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON...AND WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07/JLA
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

407 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...

VERY ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA
WITH A FEW STRAGGLERS AROUND ONAMIA. THE STORMS IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL MN HAVE ALREADY CAUSED SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS. THIS IS
ONE OF MANY CONCERNS FOR THE DAY/NIGHT AHEAD.

A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING
TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SD. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH
THIS MORNING WITH A CAP BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THE HRRR TRIES TO
DEVELOP SOME MINOR CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE MORNING
JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THE
STORMS JUST NORTH OF US MAY TRY AND BACK BUILD.

IN THE AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE SD LOW WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN MN. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
BY 21Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN. ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOGS
SHOW THE MOST CONCENTRATED SEVERE REPORTS FROM SW MN INTO CENTRAL
KS AND PART OF THIS AREA TODAY IS COVERED BY A MODERATE RISK BY
SPC. THE ANALOGS ALSO SHOW NEARLY 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR 2
INCHES OF RAIN AROUND THE TWIN CITIES. THE SREF ALSO HAS 10-20
PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 12 HOURS (TONIGHT) JUST
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES.

WHAT IS REALLY INTERESTING IS THAT THIS WILL BE THE THIRD WEATHER
SYSTEM IN A ROW TO AFFECT OUR AREA WHERE A MID LEVEL LOW WILL
DRIVE NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
LAST WEEK. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST RAINS TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO
FALL OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA THAT SAW 2-5 INCHES LAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES...AS WELL AS POLK
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WI.

VARIOUS WRF/S SHOW THE CONVECTION WANING ONCE IT PASSES I-35
TONIGHT AND POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA. SOMETHING
FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONTEND WITH. IN ADDITION...IT WILL BECOME
QUITE HOT AND HUMID OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI TODAY. MIX DOWN IS SHOWING LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR THIS AREA.
COMBINE THIS WITH THE DEW POINT BEING NEAR 70 DEGREES AND THE
HEAT INDEX RISES TO NEARLY 100 DEGREES. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO. ALSO...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES ON MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL WI FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT SPREADING IN DURING THE DAY.
MUCH COOLER WITH SOME SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NO
CHANGES MADE BEYOND TUESDAY WITH CURRENT WEATHER TAKING PRECEDENCE.

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VERY SHORT DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS IN
CENTRAL MN IN AREA OF VERY STRONG WAA AHEAD OF SFC WARM FRONT. THESE
STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE AXN AND STC TAFS IN THE OVERNITE. MID
LVL CAP MAY BE STRONG ENUF TO HOLD IN S AREAS...BUT SOME CONCERN
WITH VORT MAX WHICH LIFTED OUT OF KS AND IS NOW W OF DSM WHICH MAY
FIRE STORMS IN THE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING ACRS THE PLAINS INTO
S MN. OTHW WRMFNT NOW NEAR IA BORDER WILL LIFT N OVRNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MRNG INTO CNTL MN. THIS WILL FOCUS STORMS FOR SUNDAY WITH
SECOND FOCUS AHD OF CDFNT PUSHING INTO W MN LATE IN DAY.

KMSP...TSTMS IN THE OVRNITE SHUD REMAIN N OF MSP. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS IN THE OVRNITE...BUT IMPRVG CONDS LT TNGHT/ERLY SUNDAY MRNG AS
WRMFNT LIFTS N OF AREA. SHUD SEE SLY GUSTS 25 KTS BY 15Z.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...MVFR-IFR WITH TSRA LIKELY.
MON...MVFR WITH SHRA POSSIBLE.
TUE-WED...VFR WITH PASSING HIGH PRESSURE.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
POLK.

RAH/BAP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

106 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...
GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...
NEDOR OBS CAME IN AT 1110 PM SHOWING STRONG WINDS SPREADING AS FAR
NORTH AS THEDFORD SO THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED THROUGH
PARTS OF NCNTL NEB. ALSO IT APPEARS WINDS MAY STAY UP PAST 2 AM
UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS OFF. SO THE ADVISORY WILL RUN UNTIL
4 AM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...
WINDS ARE STILL RUNNING QUITE STRONG ACROSS SWRN NEB AS THEY
REFUSE TO DECOUPLE. KLNX VWP IS UP TO 55 KT AT THE LOWEST GATE SO
ANY VERTICAL MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE
WIND ADZY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2 AM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. BUT NOTE THAT THERE IS A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH TOWARD NEBRASKA SO THERE STILL POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...
A REPORT FROM AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND NEDOR HIGHWAY CAMS SUGGEST DENSE
FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES. ITS
POSSIBLE THE SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS INTERACTING
WITH THE VERY COOL MOIST AIR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 06Z BASED ON THE 00Z RAP MODEL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 04Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

WIND IS STILL LIKELY TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

AVIATION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ022>027-035>038-056>059-069>071.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1245 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SET UP JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE THE TAF MENTIONS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS COULD CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS MORE DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE WIND
ADVISORY HEADLINES AS WELL AS REMOVE POPS AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...STILL MONITORING STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CO/KS STATES LINES AND THEY APPEAR TO BE
BUILDING NORTHWARD...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST
AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THEY WILL REACH OUR FORECAST AREA
AS LAST RUN OF HRRR PICKED UP ON THEM AND DIMINISHED THIS ACTIVITY
BEFORE TAKING IT ACROSS OUR AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN LIES WITH THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1141 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.UPDATE...
GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 04Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

WIND IS STILL LIKELY TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

AVIATION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT
/3 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ022>027-035>038-056>059-069>071.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004-
005-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.UPDATE...
NEDOR OBS CAME IN AT 1110 PM SHOWING STRONG WINDS SPREADING AS FAR
NORTH AS THEDFORD SO THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED THROUGH
PARTS OF NCNTL NEB. ALSO IT APPEARS WINDS MAY STAY UP PAST 2 AM
UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS OFF. SO THE ADVISORY WILL RUN UNTIL
4 AM CDT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 04Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

WIND IS STILL LIKELY TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

AVIATION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT
/3 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004-
005-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE STILL RUNNING QUITE STRONG ACROSS SWRN NEB AS THEY
REFUSE TO DECOUPLE. KLNX VWP IS UP TO 55 KT AT THE LOWEST GATE SO
ANY VERTICAL MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE
WIND ADZY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2 AM CDT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 04Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

WIND IS STILL LIKELY TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

AVIATION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT
/1 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ022-056>059-069>071.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004-
005-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

920 PM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER A FRONT OVER NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON MAY PRODUCE RAIN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

.SHORT TERM...MEAGER LOOKING THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ALONG
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY PROPAGATED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOWER
COLUMBIA/WILLAMETTE RIVER VALLEYS. THE 19Z HRRR DID AN AMAZING JOB OF
SHOWING THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...ALBEIT IT WAS WAY TOO FAST.

A DISTINCT CELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPED OVER
THE VANCOUVER/NORTH PORTLAND AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR...ALONG WITH DIME TO PENNY SIZE
HAIL IN PARTS OF VANCOUVER. ANYWAY...THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TROPICAL LIKE RAINS ACROSS THE METRO AREA HAVE
BEGUN TO WEAKEN...BUT CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS EAST OF SALEM. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME...EXPECT THE WEAKENING TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND
SEND ANOTHER GRID UPDATE SHORTLY. /NEUMAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA IS STREAMING ACROSS NW
OREGON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST. LIGHTNING DETECTION SENSORS HAVE
DETECTED A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE CASCADES...AND EXPECT MORE
TO FOLLOW AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR AND SURFACE HEATING
INCREASES. NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY STEER SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE THE COAST RANGE AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
CURRENTLY AROUND 135W...APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXTENSIVE STRATUS
OVER THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY AND WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH ON MEMORIAL DAY THAT WILL
MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA AND POSSIBLY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY AN UPPER FEATURE AS THE
MODELED SURFACE PATTERN DOES NOT FORECAST A FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH.
THEREFORE ANY SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AT 850MB (~5000 FEET) AND ABOVE WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT TO THE
MOIST AIR MASS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF NW OREGON DRY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER A MOIST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS TO
THE SW WASHINGTON COAST. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH
INLAND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION..BUT AS OF NOW PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE. IF THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE HAPPENS TO FALL ANYWHERE SOUTH FROM THE CURRENT
FORECAST...THEN WED AND THU WILL BE WET RATHER THAN DRY. HAVE
THEREFORE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTION. A SERIES OF STORMS CIRCULATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH RAIN EVERY 2 TO 3 DAYS INTO
NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...AFTER SOME QUICK STRATUS BREAKOUT THIS AFTERNOON...A
FEW TSTMS DID DEVELOP NORTH OF KPDX AND MOVED SOUTH OVER THE
AIRPORT. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. ANY OTHER SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING SHOULD STAY OVER THE CASCADES...WITH
ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY DYING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MARINE STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND TO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...THOUGH MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER. AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
COAST SUN...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING...WITH NO FURTHER TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT THE
AIRPORT. LOOK FOR MVFR STRATUS TO REFORM JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. BROWN

.MARINE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SEAS ARE LOWERING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. EXPECT GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY TURNING THE WINDS SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS ON
SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAKER FRONT WILL BRUSH BY ON MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL LOWER TO THE 4 TO 6 FT BY LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH SUNDAY. SKT/BROWN

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1055 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
STRATUS HUGGING OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER WILL FINALLY LIFT
FROM THE HON AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BRING POTENTIAL STRONG WIND SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT AROUND
1800 FEET INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THREAT FOR STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
THE EAST OF A TYNDALL TO DE SMET SOUTH DAKOTA LINE. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...INCLUDING IN FSD AND SUX. LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND BY ABOUT 9Z OR
10Z LIKELY BE EAST OF THE CWA. COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR WILL
ADVECT IN SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE COOL DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE HEAT TODAY...THEN IF STORMS OCCUR
IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND/OR MONDAY.

CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES AND RIDGING FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SUBTROPICAL STREAM OF
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGING HAS
FADED QUITE A BIT AND PUSHED EAST. ALL MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW IS
MOSTLY CONTAINED WITHIN THE WESTERN TROUGH. IN-BETWEEN THE TROUGHING
AND RIDGING...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OF 40-60 KT IS PRESENT AT
850MB PER PROFILER DATA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. ON THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET...CONVECTION EXISTS
FROM NORTH DAKOTA EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WARM AIR ON THAT
LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. AT 00Z...850MB TEMPS
WERE 15C AT MPX AND 24C AT OAX...BUT THE RAP NOW SUGGESTS THESE HAVE
CLIMBED TO 20C AT MPX AND STAYED THE SAME AT OAX. THIS WARM AIRMASS
IS ALSO STRONGLY CAPPED AS SEEN ON THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED JUST EAST OF RAPID CITY WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ALONG I-90 ALL THE WAY TO LA CROSSE. SOUTH
OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH A 65-70F
DEWPOINT MAXIMA AREA OVER IOWA. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 60-65 ARE
PRESENT SOUTH OF I-70.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA BY 12Z MONDAY.
CONTINUED STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH
WILL HELP PROPEL THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
PERHAPS BY 15Z. ALL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z...WITH CAPPING THEN IN
PLACE FOR ALL OF TODAY TO YIELD A DRY DAY. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS HOW
WARM WE WILL GET AS WELL AS THE DEWPOINT FOR FIGURING OUT HEAT
INDICES. THE CORE OF THE WARM 850MB AIR SEEN OVER OAX IS FORECAST
TO BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 18Z...WITH READINGS OF
20-22C. STRAIGHT MIXING THESE DOWN...WHICH SEEMS DOABLE GIVEN PLENTY
OF SUN AND A BREEZY SOUTH WIND...YIELDS HIGHS OF 92-97F WHICH IS
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING AND THE LATEST RAP RUNS WHICH
HAVE PERFORMED THE BEST IN ABOVE NORMAL SITUATIONS. THESE ARE CLOSE
TO RECORDS. REGARDING DEWPOINTS...THE MAXIMA AREA OF 65-70F OVER
IOWA THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FORECASTING QUITE WELL. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
THE DEWPOINTS END UP FALLING TODAY...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MIXING
DRIER AIR DOWN FROM ALOFT AND THE ADVECTION IN OF DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE SOUTH. AS SUCH...MAYBE MID 60S DEWPOINTS IS THE MOST WE SEE AT
TIME OF PEAK HEATING. COMBINATION OF THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WOULD
YIELD MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95-100...JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HEAT ADVISORY AS A RESULT...BUT HAVE
MENTIONED THE HEAT SITUATION IN HWO AND WEB SERVICES. MEANWHILE...TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA...EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MANY THINGS GOING FOR
IT...INCLUDING HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...CONVERGENCE ON
THE FRONT...AND PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BY 00Z...THIS
CONVECTION...LIKELY SEVERE...SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PUSH EAST...ANTICIPATING THE CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PROCESS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
SLOW...SINCE THE FRONT PARALLELS THE 500MB FLOW. 06-12Z TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT
IN SEEING STORMS... THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THE CONVECTION FALLS
APART AS SUGGESTED BY THE 27.00Z HIRES ARW RUN. IF CONVECTION
SURVIVES...HARD TO SAY IF IT WILL STILL BE SEVERE...DUE TO
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. PLENTY OF SHEAR
EXISTS...SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME GUSTY AND PERHAPS
DAMAGING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE IS VERY LOW. WARM NIGHT
ANTICIPATED TOO WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES MORE OF AN EASTWARD
TRACK DURING THIS PERIOD COMPARED TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH THE CORE
OF IT IS STILL PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO BY 12Z
TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER FLOW GETTING A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO IT DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE A LITTLE QUICKER TO THE EAST. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL AT LEAST BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OR POSSIBLY EVEN THROUGH AS SUGGESTED BY THE 27.00Z
GFS. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL WE SEE WITH THE FRONT.
SQUALL LINE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE FALLEN APART BY 12Z. IF THIS
IS THE CASE...WHICH HAS SOME PRETTY STRONG MODEL SUPPORT...THEN WE
HAVE TO WAIT FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE AGAIN ON THE FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY. RIGHT NOW...THE ONLY
AREA POTENTIALLY OF SEEING THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE SAY FROM CLAYTON
COUNTY UP INTO JUNEAU/ADAMS. IF THE FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA AT 00Z
LIKE THE 27.00Z GFS SUGGESTS...ALL OF MONDAY COULD END UP DRY. HAVE
KEPT ONLY 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THE MORNING AND CONFINED THE
AFTERNOON CHANCES TO THE AREA DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY. THESE ARE CAPPED
AT 50 PERCENT TOO. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY
SLOT SHOULD HELP CLEAR THINGS OUT. DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY
TOO BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AIR IN
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO 5-10C BY 12Z TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...AFTER A STILL WARM MONDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED
A COUPLE DEGREES UP TO COME BETTER IN-LINE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE...PLAN
ON TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
AREA...WITH THE CORE OF IT LIFTING TOWARDS JAMES BAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CORE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS COULD FALL TO 3-8C BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY PER A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND...OR PERHAPS ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO NEAR 0C IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA PER THE 27.00Z
NAM AND 27.03Z SREF. IN ANY EVENT...THIS COOLER AIR COMBINED WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD RESULT IN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY NORTH OF I-94...DEEPER INTO THE UPPER
TROUGHING. HAVE KEPT SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER DAY ANTICIPATED. SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL A LITTLE MORE. LOWS IN THE 40S
LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

27.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE MEAN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SHOWING
TROUGHING TO STAY PUT OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THIS TROUGHING IS ENHANCED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY...CARVING OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN SEEMS TO BE TOO
DEEP AND IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH
TROUGHING...WHICH 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...DEFINITELY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO END UP
BELOW NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE TOWARDS SATURDAY THE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH
EAST...ALLOWING MODERATION BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE MORE PROBLEMATIC. YESTERDAY IT SEEMED LIKE THE BULK IF
NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WOULD END UP DRY. TODAY...THERE ARE
CONCERNS ABOUT SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH THE TROUGH PRODUCING
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES ARE FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THAT POTENT SHORTWAVE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE THAT DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.
OVERALL...MUCH MORE REMINISCENT OF A WINTER SITUATION. NO
INSTABILITY PROGGED SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY ON PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP...CHANCES ARE
KEPT IN THE 20-30 RANGE. FARTHER OUT...LEFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY DRY AS THE COOL AIR AND SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER TROUGHING
SHIFT EAST.

.AVIATION...
1055 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

THE BULK OF THE EVENING CONVECTION HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES...STAYING FOCUSED ON THE 850 MB FRONT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...THE WARM FRONT WAS MAKING QUICK PROGRESS
NORTH...NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AT LATE EVENING. THE SFC BOUNDARY
SHOULD TRACK NORTH OF KRST/KLSE BETWEEN 10-12Z...SHIFTING THE WINDS
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

AS THE FRONT GETS NORTH ON SUNDAY...AMPLE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUTOFF MUCH TO ALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THAT
SAID...A LOT OF INSTABILITY A LOFT...AND IF A SHORTWAVE WOULD TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA...SOME SHRA/TS MIGHT DEVELOP. MODELS DON/T INDICATE
THAT THIS IS LIKELY...HOWEVER. SO...EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS.
IT WILL BE BREEZY ON SUNDAY...WITH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

ANOTHER POINT OF NOTE WITH THE FRONT...SOME HINTS VIA A FEW OF THE
MODELS THAT MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN SOME
LOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. OBS AND FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME OF THIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE GOPHER STATE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH EITHER WAY...AND WILL
OPT TO STAY VFR FOR THE MOMENT. THAT SAID...FEEL KRST HAS THE
GREATER THREAT FOR IFR CIGS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED VERY

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION......RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

915 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST THIS EVENING...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...

OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOOCIATED WITH BERYL HAVE REACHED INTO EC
FL COASTAL WATERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WSW. LATEST RAP RUN
INDICATES ACTIVITY REACHING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS AROUND MIDDAY AND
EXPANDING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDING AND
AREA PROFILERS INDICATE 25KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND
PLANNING TO NUDGE WINDS UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
SUSTAINED WINDS NOT QUITE MEETING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOME AREAS...GIVEN SOME EXPECTED GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND A BUSY HOLIDAY BOATING WEEKEND...WILL
EXPAND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE REMAINDER OF BREVARD AND
THE INTERIOR SOUTHWARD THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY WITH MORNING UPDATE.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING FROM NW-W TO W-SW THIS AFTERNOON AS BERYL
MOVES CLOSER TO THE NE FL COAST.

TONIGHT...(EDITED PREVIOUS) TRACK OF BERYL CONTINUES TO BRING THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE EVENING WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH RAIN BANDS FROM BERYL...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. FOR
MORE DETAILS ON EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM BERYL REFER TO THE LATEST
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE OFFICE.

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS PERSIST THROUGH ~15Z THEN TRENDING
TOWARD MORE TEMPO THEN PREVAILING IFR/MVFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS RAIN BANDS FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA. W/NW WILL BACK TO THE W/SW TODAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
UP TO 15-20+ KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND HIGHER IN VOLUSIA
COUNTY. GUSTS TO TS FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KDAB LATER TODAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.MARINE...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL MOVING INTO
EC FL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL EXPAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES WITH LATE MORNING CWF....TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY WITH
SCA FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE LEG...BUT A CAUTIONARY HEADLINE
WILL BE ADDED THERE. W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...BACKING
TO THE W/SW AS SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL MOVES TOWARD THE NE FLORIDA
COASTLINE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS. FOR MORE DETAILED IMPACTS
ON BERYL...SEE THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM NWS MLB.

MON-TUE...(PREVIOUS) POOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LCL ATLC
AS THE CIRCULATION OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL MEANDERS OVER NE FL/SE
GA. MODERATE TO FRESH S/SE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL N OF SEBASTIAN INLET
MON/MON NIGHT...GENTLE TO MODERATE S OF THE INLET. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE SW INTO TUE NIGHT AS BERYL BEGINS TO LIFT UP THE ERN
SEABOARD. ON MON...SEAS 4-6FT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...3-4FT S OF THE
INLET. ON TUE...SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...2-4FT
S OF THE INLET. DVLPG OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT ON TUE SHOULD GENERATE
CHOPPY/ROUGH SHORT PD WIND WAVES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.

WED-THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS THRU MIDWEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL
ARE PULLED UP THE ERN SEABOARD BY A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACRS THE
NRN TIER STATES. GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SW BREEZE. SEAS AOB 2FT
NEARSHORE...3-4FT OFFSHORE WED SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT THU.

.FIRE WEATHER...(PREVIOUS) NO LOW RH CONCERNS TODAY...BUT INCREASING
WINDS FROM APPROACH OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL INTO THE AFT MAY
CREATE RAPID SPREAD OF BRUSHFIRES IN AREAS WHERE RAINBANDS ARE NOT
PERSISTENT.

NO SIG ISSUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL USHERS IN
A MOIST WX PATTERN ACRS CENTRAL FL. SCT/NMRS SHRAS AND TSRAS THRU
TUE...BCMG SCT FROM WED ONWARD.

.HYDROLOGY...AREA IS INITIALLY STARTING OUT QUITE DRY WITH MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA STILL CLASSIFIED IN A DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
WITH SUCCESSIVE PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING TODAY AND
THROUGH THE MID WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS RECEIVING MORE
PERSISTENT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER CENTER OF BERYL
PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
TROFFING EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 73 87 74 / 90 70 70 60
MCO 90 71 89 72 / 60 60 60 50
MLB 89 74 87 74 / 50 60 50 40
VRB 88 73 86 74 / 50 50 50 40
LEE 90 72 89 72 / 60 70 70 60
SFB 90 72 90 73 / 70 70 60 60
ORL 90 73 90 73 / 60 60 60 50
FPR 88 73 86 74 / 50 50 50 40

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR BREVARD-LAKE-SEMINOLE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA.

AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20
NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK
TROPICAL OPERATIONS...MOSES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

754 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

AS A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...EXPECT
ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP TO LIFT ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. IT LOOKS
LIKE SHOWERS ARE NOW NORTH OF KIWD AND THEY MAY NOT SEE ANY MORE
SHOWERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH OF KCMX AND KSAW BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW AND MOIST
CONDITIONS FROM RAIN WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW THROUGH MUCH
OF DAY. CONDITIONS MAY EVEN GO TO IFR FOR A TIME AT KCMX DURING
RAIN. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO LIFR OR VLIFR AT BOTH KSAW AND KCMX. APPROACH
OF COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA
AFT 06Z AT BOTH KCMX AND KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

707 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/
VERY ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA
WITH A FEW STRAGGLERS AROUND ONAMIA. THE STORMS IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL MN HAVE ALREADY CAUSED SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS. THIS IS ONE
OF MANY CONCERNS FOR THE DAY/NIGHT AHEAD.

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED EAST/WEST ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOW STRATUS WITH CB NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TODAY
THIS WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD...WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MN AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY CENTERED AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE STORMS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER TOMORROW MORNING.

KMSP...PESKY BROKEN DECK SHOULD BREAK UP QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE 3HR
WINDOW FOLLOWING 02Z. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE MODIFIED AS IT BECOMES
MORE APPARENT WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...BUT WENT WITH VCTS DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

/OUTLOOK/
MONDAY...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 15G25KT
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KT
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-
DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-
WRIGHT.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR POLK.

RAH/JRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1045 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND THIS MORNINGS
UPDATE FOCUSES ON EFFECTS. AS OF 14Z...COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AS AS OF 1530Z IS LOCATED FROM
ARLINGTON-SALEM-FREEMAN SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS AREAS WEST OF I-29 WITH
EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING. IF FRONT CONTINUES ON CURRENT PACE...IT
SHOULD PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 22Z AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITATION MAINLY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED POST FRONTAL...SO HAVE
NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR NOW. 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE
CONCERNING AS PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL AS OF LATE ACROSS EASTERN CWA FLASH
FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS REASONABLE BUT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT TO SEE
MORE THAN TWO INCHES IN ANY PARTICULAR AREA. WOULD BE NICE TO SEE
HOW THE HRRR HANDLES FASTER TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GIVEN PROBLEMS OF
12-13Z RUNS...WILL HAVE TO WAIT. UPDATE POSTED.

&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THREAT FOR STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 22Z NEAR AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ROUGHLY EAST OF A BROOKINGS TO YANKTON
SOUTH DAKOTA LINE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...INCLUDING
FSD AND SUX. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE A THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT/
DECIDED TO ADD SOME REAL SMALL POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG A SMALL AXIS FROM YANKTON TO SIOUX CITY...
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TO LUVERNE AND WORTHINGTON MN. CURRENT SATELLITE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ACCAS NOW MOVING INTO S CENTRAL NEB FROM
WESTERN KS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONG
MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP
BUT WITH ELEVATED CAPES NOT THE BEST IN THE WORLD YET...DID NOT EVEN
MENTION A CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

OTHERWISE THE BIG STORY TODAY IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF OUR WELL
ADVERTISED VERY STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST. HEIGHT FALLS ARE
ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG...DEEP LAYER THETA E ADVECTION BEGINNING
AROUND 21Z LATE TODAY. THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN
IN EARNEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD AND
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT AREAS...NORTH TOWARD THE MARSHALL MN AREA.
CONVECTION WILL VERY LIKELY BEGIN AS DISCRETE CELLS AIDED BY A MID
LEVEL FLOW OF 50 TO 70 KNOTS COMING UP FROM KS AND NEB. DUE TO THE
SHORT WAVE...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS IS QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL COINCIDING WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING...THEREFORE
EXPECTING THE CAP TO BREAK DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY AROUND 5 TO 6 PM.
THEN THIS EVENING...STRONG JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA
PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA SQUARELY IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
AIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...COUPLED WITH ML CAPES GENERALLY IN THE
2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS INCREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS TO 50 TO 75 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SPEED
SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG...BUT VEERING PROFILES ARE LACKING SOMEWHAT
COUPLED WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THEREFORE IN
THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...DISCRETE CELLS WILL HAVE
ENOUGH UPDRAFT TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. BUT WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR
OF A STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE AND LARGE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...AGREE WITH SPC THAT THE TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL. AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH THE HELP OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET
STREAK...THE WHOLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL VERY LIKELY MORPH INTO A
QLCS AS IT MARCHES EASTWARD THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES...
TRANSITIONING THE THREAT TO WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN...COUPLED WITH MANY OF THESE AREAS
ALREADY HAVING RECEIVED A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT
AFTER AROUND 2 OR 3 AM AS THE DYNAMICS USHERS AWAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...DID NOT NEED TO ALTER THEM MUCH AT ALL AS
WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT ABOVE THE SURFACE TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST...OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. IN
ADDITION THE STRATUS HAS MOVE NORTH AND WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
ADVANCEMENT.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN HANGING OUT IN THE
ROCKIES FINALLY LIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS BRINGING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR BEHIND A BONAFIDE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER ON MONDAY WITH UPPER 60S IN OUR NORTHWEST...
TO UPPER 70S IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. MIXED LAYER WINDS WILL GIVE
A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTINESS AROUND 30 MPH. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...A SHORT WAVE WILL SWING SOUTHWARD
INTO THIS AREA BEHIND IT...BRINGING IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA ORIGIN WHICH WILL GIVE US A HIGHS COOLER YET ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF STRATOCU WILL BE FOUND WITH THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. BUT AT THIS TIME LEFT ANY MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. BY WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL ONLY HOVER AROUND 60. NOTING THE COOL TEMPERATURES...MAY
NOT BE QUITE COOL ENOUGH FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WINDS
RAPIDLY SLACKEN OFF...BUT ALREADY GOING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
COOLER MOS NUMBERS. /MJF

IN THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OUR AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
RISING HEIGHTS TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS A WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS POINTING TOWARD SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. NOT THE
GREATEST MODEL AGREEMENT ON TRACK/TIMING...SO MID RANGE POPS REMAIN
APPROPRIATE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN A NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...
WARMING TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER. /JM

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ014.

SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SDZ071.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

547 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE HEAT TODAY...THEN IF STORMS OCCUR
IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND/OR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
547 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR SOUTH
WINDS AT 12 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 28 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KRST. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER
THE TAF SITES AT TIMES TODAY WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 15-25 KFT
RANGE. A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT KLSE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK IN. PLAN ON
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT BOTH TAF SITES. A COLD
FRONT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL AS THEY APPROACH KRST. HAVE INCLUDED -TSRA MENTION AT
KRST STARTING AT 10Z. LOOK FOR CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO AROUND 4KFT
AT KRST LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVES IN.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY WEST OF KLSE THROUGH 12Z.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 12Z...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KLSE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

410 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH MONDAY...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM BERYL SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST
TOWARDS THE COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PULL BERYL UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MID WEEK...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM BERYL OFF THE COAST OF
NRN FL COAST (SEE LATEST FORECAST AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR FURTHER
DETAILS). CLOSER TO HOME...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS PERSIST ACRS NE NC/FAR SOUTHERN VA IN THE WARM/HUMID
AIRMASS. SKIES ARE SOMEWHAT LESS CLOUDY FARTHER N/W...WHERE TEMPS
ARE GENLY IN THE MID-UPR 80S (80-85 FARTHER SE). MUCH OF THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT
MOVES INTO VA...AND BULK OF IT REMAINS OFF TO OUR SW...SO WILL
CARRY ONLY LOW CHC POPS FROM ABOUT ECG TO AVC AND SW...WITH A 20%
POP OVER SRN VA THRU 8 PM. MODELS W/ BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS..THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET AND HAVE DROPPED POPS THEREAFTER. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE IF
MCS ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA/WV WERE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND
REACH AKQ CWA DURING THE LATE EVENING HRS. GIVEN FAIRLY WEAK FLOW
ALOFT (NW FLOW GENLY STAYING TO OUR N) DOUBT THIS CONVECTION WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...W/
INCREASING CLOUDS LIKELY JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. DECIDED NOT TO
INCLUDE FOG IN FCST AS AIRMASS IS SOMEWHAT MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE
THAN PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS (PROBABLY MORE OF A STRATUS SETUP RATHER
THAN FOG) MODELS SUGGEST A LGT S WIND OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS
ABOUT 3-5 F WARMER THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
65-70 RANGE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT STEERING FLOW KEEPS SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER MONTANA TRACKS TO HUDSON BAY CANADA BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCE TO MOVE
BERYL UP THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE S RATHER THAN E/SE OF THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN MAY SEE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH INTO VA BY AFTN...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL ONLY CARRY
20-30% POPS. HIGHS GENLY 85-90.

TUE/WED...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
BERYL MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY LATE IN THE THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
W/ HVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN AS PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...W/
LITTLE SHEAR DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS IN TERMS OF WIND. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS DEEPER MSTR MOVES IN FROM THE SSW. PERSIST
THROUGH MIDDAY WED AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE HI CHC POPS FAR W TO LIKELY ELSEWHERE ON WED. TEMPS HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT W/ CLOUDS...HIGHS LWR-MID 80S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC`S LEAD FOR FRONTAL POSITIONS AND PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSURING THAT BERYL WILL STAY
WELL OFFSHORE IN ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...PULLING THE
FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

HAVE MOST OF THE PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD OCCURRING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE LOW AROUND FRIDAY WITH PCPN DIMINISHING SATURDAY ON NW
SURFACE FLOW (BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY). THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A WEEKEND OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES START OFF FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND AND NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
AND OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS AND PCPN RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS
WILL BE FROM 60 TO 65 INLAND AND MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S NEAR THE

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT/BKN CU/TCU PREVAIL ACROSS REGION AT 18Z. SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE NC EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z. LOTS OF LO LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS REGION...AND NAM TSECTIONS
INDICATE BKN/OVC LOW CLDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS IN THE 06Z
TO 12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT. IFR FORECAST ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KECG...WHERE CEILINGS FORECAST JUST ABOVE IFR. ELSEWHERE...
CEILINGS BELOW 1KFT ARE ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST 2 NIGHTS. ONE LIMITING FACTOR
TO WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION IS A BIT MORE WIND IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT VICE THE LAST 2 NIGHTS.

EXPECT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
12Z MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH 15Z. ATTM...LITTLE PRECIP ANTICIPATED UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES TO PRODUCE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS.

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT WITH THIS ISSUANCE. SE TO S WINDS
SHOULD HOLD JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY. SEAS ARE JUST
BELOW 5 FT IN THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND WAVEWATCH HAS
THOSE SEAS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TOWARD MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE WIND FIELD WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE
PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL SYSTEM (OR REMNANTS) BERYL LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN DECREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
THEN TURN TO NW/N BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...LSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

438 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN
MT AND A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS TO NRN SASK. AT THE SFC...A 999 MB
LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SE NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT THROUGH CNTRL
MN TO SE WI WHILE THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH ERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NW KS. LEFTOVER LOWER CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI WERE THINNING OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HAVE KEPT TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. CAPPING WITH SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB WARMING HAS
SUPPRESSED ANY ADDITIONAL TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER THE
CWA. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI BY LATE EVENING
STILL REMAINS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT AND
FAVORABLE 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER MN AND
THEN SPREAD TOWARD UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SHRA/TSRA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WOULD BE ARRIVING WHEN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
WEAKER...MUCAPE VALUES STILL IN THE 1K-2K RANGE ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA OVER THE WEST
LATE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

MONDAY...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES FROM NRN MN ACROSS NRN LAKE SUPERIOR
IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER MI REACHING CNTRL UPPER MI AROUND
18Z. WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL NEAR 19C OVER CNTRL UPPER MI...TEMPS
COULD QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER CNTRL UPPER MI AND BOOST MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING FORM NE MN INTO
NRN ONTARIO...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG NEAR THE TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
STILL SUPPORT SCT TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLD STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
OR LARGE HAIL. TO THE WEST...MID LEVEL DRYING WITH THE DRY SLOT
SHOULD INHIBIT TSRA CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

THE PERIOD STARTS 00Z TUE WITH A 500MB LOW OVER NERN ND AND A 500MB
RIDGE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO JAMES BAY. THERE WILL BE AN
ELONGATED 998MB SFC LOW FROM NEAR THE UPPER LOW TO ONTARIO BETWEEN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER FAR ERN UPPER
MI...WHICH IS AN AVG TIMING FROM GUIDANCE. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

BY 12Z TUE...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE OPENED TO A TROUGH AND MOVED TO
THE MN ARROWHEAD. THIS BRINGS COLDER AIR AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3C
NW TO 9C SE. BY 00Z WED THE ORIGINAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
ORIGINAL TROUGH O TO FAR WRN ONTARIO. 850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL TO AROUND 0C NW TO AROUND 6C SE BY 00Z WED. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD TUE...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FOR
SOME INLAND SHOWERS.

WED WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA BY 18Z WED...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-2C UNDER NW FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN WED HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND IN THE 50S INLAND.

WED NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO COLD TREND AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS ALLOWS FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE THAT
WILL MAKE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

A SFC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THU THROUGH NEXT SUN...WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A GENERAL
WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TONIGHT AT
CMX/SAW WITH MOIST UPSLOPE E TO SSE FLOW. SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY APPROACH
IWD LATE THIS EVENING AND AT CMX AFT 06Z. OTHERWISE...SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AT CMX/IWD AND IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KSAW. LEFTOVER IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO LIFT TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT NEAR
SRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT IN GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KT THIS EVENING ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO 25 KTS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVR WRN AND NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
AROUND ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WINDS VEERING
NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COULD THEN REMAIN
GUSTY TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

327 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TONIGHT AT
CMX/SAW WITH MOIST UPSLOPE E TO SSE FLOW. SOME SHA/TSRA MAY APPROACH
IWD LATE THIS EVENING AND AT CMX AFT 06Z. OTHERWISE...SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AT CMX/IWD AND IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KSAW. LEFTOVER IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO LIFT TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.ISOLD SUPERCELL LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MN WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SFC WAVE(LOW PRESSURE AREA) WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DETEIORATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
500 AND 700 PM THIS EVENING...ONCE STORMS INITIATE. AS THUNDERSTORMS
PROPAGATE EAST...CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO EAST CENTRAL MN
AND WESTERN WISCONIN LATER TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO SWEEP INTO WESTERN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OVER EASTERN SECTION OF
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT 10-20 KNOTS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

KMSP...WILL HAVE SOME PESKY SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN METRO
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE TWIN CITIES AREA AFTER 700 PM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER 200 AM MONDAY WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
HEAVY RAIN AND FOG. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURING THE REST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK/
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KT
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR POLK.

RAH/JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

324 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL VERY LITTLE
NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS...WITH THE OBVIOUS MAIN ISSUE BEING THE LIKELY ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

18Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PAINTS A WEAK 1002 MB LOW NEAR HILL
CITY KS...WITH A SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
FARTHER EAST...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS SOLIDLY IN THE SOUTHERLY
WIND REGIME AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAINLY
15-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. HOWEVER...KS ZONES ARE AVERAGING
A BIT STRONGER SPEEDS...WITH SUSTAINED CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA DOWN THERE...ANTICIPATE A POSSIBLE SLIGHT
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...AND THUS WILL LET THE
INHERITED WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE AS-IS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH AN EARLY
CANCELLATION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMP WISE...EARLIER
NUDGED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
MOST AREAS...RANGING FROM MID 80S WEST TO LOW 90S EAST AND SOUTH.
SO FAR...THIS SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...DESPITE THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CUMULUS FIELD WHICH AS OVERTAKEN MOST OF THE CWA. ALOFT...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY REVEALS THE
PRIMARY EXPANSIVE SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST APPROACHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ANCHORED BY A CLOSED 500MB LOW PUSHING ACROSS
EASTERN MT. THE PRIMARY 300MB JET AXIS AROUND 100KT IS STILL TO
THE WEST...EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH FROM WESTERN NEB INTO SD. RADAR
WISE...THERE HAVE BEEN A SMATTERING OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS/MAYBE A
FEW VERY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATING NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY
AMOUNTING TO NOTHING MORE THAN A GLORIFIED SPRINKLE.

GETTING TO THE FORECAST...THE WELL-ADVERTISED AFTERNOON/EVENING
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE PARAMOUNT CONCERN.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING/MODEL TRENDS HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR FROM
THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT FORECAST...WHICH REALLY SEEMED TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS. ALSO AGREE WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK EMPHASIZING THE HAIL/WIND THREAT BUT KEEPING THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL MORE IN CHECK. ONE TREND THAT HAS SEEMED TO EMERGE TODAY
IS SLIGHTLY LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES...WITH THE RAP/RUC
ADVERTISING 0-1 KM MLCAPE VALUES TOPPING OUT MAINLY AROUND 1500
J/KG INSTEAD OF MORE WIDESPREAD 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WITH 0-6KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY INCREASING INTO THE 40-60KT
RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND MID
LEVEL TEMPS GRADUALLY COOLING AS WELL...SHOULD STILL SEE A ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT. LEANING TOWARD THE LATEST RAP/RUC AND HRRR FOR THE
DETAILS...THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME SHOULD FEATURE THE ONSET OF
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT IN EASTERN ZONES THROUGH
00Z...KEEPING SEVERAL COUNTIES BELOW LIKELY WORDING. ONCE STORMS
FORM...A POTENTIALLY MESSY MIX OF INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS AND
QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS SHOULD UNFOLD...WITH INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS
TRACKING NORTHEAST AROUND 35 MPH. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES...AND RESULTANT LCL
HEIGHTS LARGELY IN EXCESS OF 1500-2000M TO START OUT WITH...THINK
THAT INITIAL STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY HAIL/EFFICIENT WIND
PRODUCERS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTNADOES AS SEEN
BACK ON THE 19TH. HOWEVER...AS LONG AS STORMS CAN REMAIN AT LEAST
QUASI-DISCRETE TOWARD 00Z AND TOWARD SUNSET...PARAMETERS DO BECOME
A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MAYBE A FEW TORNADOES...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING BRINGING LCLS DOWN CLOSER TO 1000M AND 0-1KM BULK
SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 20-25KT AND 0-1KM SRH POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 150 M2/S2...AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS IS PARTIALLY
IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY BACKING IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW DEEPENING A BIT TO AROUND 997MB IN NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL KS.
FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL...SO MUCH WILL DEPEND ON YET-TO-BE-RESOLVED
DETAILS IN STORM MODE/STORM INTERACTION...BUT OVERALL THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING LONG TRACK OR PARTICULARLY
STRONG. AS FOR HAIL...WILL LEAVE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO BASEBALL
WORDING IN THE HWO...BUT WITH INSTABILITY NOT EYE-POPPING WOULD
TEND TO THINK MOST SHOULD REMAIN GOLF BALL OR SMALLER. CERTAINLY
WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 70 MPH ARE A CONCERN.

SPECIFICALLY GETTING INTO THE EVENING 00Z-06Z PERIOD...KEPT 60-80
POPS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
EXPANDED AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS ALL THE WAY BACK ACROSS THE FAR
WEST...AS THE COLD FRONTAL INVASION APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AS IT STALLS OUT IN RESPONSE TO A GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF THE NORTHWEST KS SURFACE LOW TO AROUND 997MB. THAT
BEING SAID...THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SHARP EAST-WEST GRADIENT
BETWEEN STORMS AND NO STORMS...AND SEVERAL WESTERN COUNTIES COULD
MISS OUT ON MOST IF NOT ALL THE ACTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS WELL...AS STORMS LIKELY
BECOME MORE LINEAR AND THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET ACCELERATES
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AND OVER THE INVADING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE. SHOULD EASILY SEE SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH LOCALIZED 2+ QUITE POSSIBLE AS WELL IF THINGS STALL
OUT AND/OR BACKBUILD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AS HINTED BY THE
12Z 4KM WRF-NMM EXPLICIT REFLECTIVITY.

FOR THE LATE NIGHT 06Z-12Z PERIOD...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES DURING THE 06Z-09Z PERIOD...BUT KEPT
THEM BELOW LIKELY RANGE AT LEAST FOR NOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM/4KM WRF
SUPPORT LINGERING CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS PAST 06Z
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN
STORM-FREE CONDITIONS POST-09Z...AS DRIER AIR INVADES BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. KEPT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS...RANGING FROM LOW 50S FAR WEST TO LOW 60S FAR EAST.

GETTING INTO MONDAY...OTHER THAN BEING A BIT BREEZY...A PLEASANT
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS IN STORE. ALOFT...THE PARENT 500MB CLOSED
LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM THE MT/ND BORDER TO EASTERN
ND...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT TRACKS WELL OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...ALIGNED FROM NORTHERN IL TO NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER
BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CHANGED HIGH TEMPS LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING
THEM CLOSE TO 12Z MET GUIDANCE RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 70S
NORTHWEST TO MAINLY MID 80S SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER FAR SOUTHEAST
AROUND BELOIT COULD STILL REACH UPPER 80S. LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH...AS
NAM-BASED MIX-DOWN TOOLS SUGGEST DEWPOINTS COULD PLUNGE ALL THE
WAY INTO THE 20S IN SOUTH/WEST AREAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASES TO AROUND 700MB. NOT GOING TO GO QUITE THIS LOW
YET...BUT STILL HAVE MOST OF THE CWA MIXING WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S
FOR DEWPOINTS. FORTUNATELY WILL NOT HAVE TO CONSIDER A RED FLAG
WARNING AS OFFICIAL VEGETATIVE FUEL STATUS IS STILL
DEEMED UNFAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH...BUT RH VALUES SHOULD
NONETHELESS DIVE BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
1/2 OF THE CWA. THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO KICK UP
WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS EASILY 15-20
MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS THE TEMPERATURES AT
850MB DECREASE DURING THE DAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE WAVE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CAPE IS GOING TO BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DECREASES AFTER THAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE CAPE
DECREASING LATER...EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
ISOLATED DURING THE EVENING. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN RECENTLY. THE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WHEN THE
UPPER WAVE FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOLER SIDE FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA THAT SETTLES INTO THE AREA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. A
COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE PERIOD
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SPOTTY PRECIPITATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 112 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/

AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE
SOME DEFINITE CONCERNS WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THIS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS DURING THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME...AND THUS HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY RAIN. ALSO INDICATED A VRB40KT WIND MENTION TO SUGGEST THAT
STRONG WINDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE...AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KT NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALTHOUGH DID NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE LARGE
HAIL POTENTIAL...IT IS THERE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH INDICATING ONLY A
PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW BEYOND 03Z...LATER FORECASTS COULD EASILY
CONVERT THIS TO A TEMPO GROUP AS STORMS COULD VERY WELL LINGER
PAST MIDNIGHT. IN CONTRAST...THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY WILL FEATURE
LEGITIMATE VFR/STORM FREE CONDITIONS...WITH ESSENTIALLY CLEAR
SKIES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT. AS FOR SURFACE WIND TRENDS...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN TURNING
WESTERLY AND INCREASING WITH DAYTIME MIXING ON MONDAY MORNING WITH
GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 24KT.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-017>019.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

244 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL VERY LITTLE
NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS...WITH THE OBVIOUS MAIN ISSUE BEING THE LIKELY ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 112 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL
MOVE IN ON MEMORIAL DAY MARKING A PLEASANT END TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

THIS MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL SEE A DRY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME POSSIBILITY OF VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND IF
STORMS DO FORM THIS MORNING THEY SHOULD BE NON SEVERE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. THE BIG
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR OUR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL
FINALLY KICK OUT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS/COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE CAP TO EASILY BE OVERCOME BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
CAP HAS REALLY KEPT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM COMING OUT TODAY THE CAP OF WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL BREAK AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AN
ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORM TRACK AND TIMING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT GENERALLY AROUND 40 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND BECOME SEVERE SOMETIME
AROUND OR BETWEEN 3 TO 5 PM ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE WEST OF HWY 281. OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES ARE A DIFFICULT FORECAST AS THEY MAY BE JUST FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO MISS OUT ON THE THUNDERSTORMS OR THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY INITIATE RIGHT ON TOP OF THEM AND THEN QUICKLY TRACK
NORTHEAST...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON RAIN/NO RAIN FOR
DAWSON...GOSPER...AND FURNAS COUNTIES.

HAIL AND WIND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD SET UP FOR GIANT HAIL WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF AROUND 50 KTS BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ROTATING SUPPER CELLS WITH STRONG MESOCYCLONES...WHICH COULD BE
VERY EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A GOOD NUMBER
OF HAIL REPORTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW GIANT HAIL
REPORTS TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY
00Z/7PM A VERY STRONG 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS WILL BE
PROVIDING GREAT INFLOW INTO THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS TO WORK TO THE SFC WITH SFC
BASED CONVECTION IN THE AREA.

TORNADO THREAT...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT THE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL LOOK LIKE. ALL MODEL PARAMETERS
LISTED BELOW WERE TAKEN FOR THE VALID TIME OF 7 PM THIS EVENING. THE
06Z NAM WAS INDICATING 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 20 KTS
AND 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 WHICH IS PRETTY MARGINAL.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF WAS GOING WITH 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30 KTS AND 0-1 SRH VALUES OF AROUND 200 M2/S2 WHICH COULD
CERTAINLY GET IT DONE FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THE 00Z GFS PARAMETERS
WERE THE BEST FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITH 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF AROUND 300 M2/S2.
THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT CLOUD BASES/LFC/LCL
HEIGHTS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM WAS GIVING US LCL HEIGHTS OF
AROUND OR A LITTLE LESS THAN 1000M AND LFC HEIGHTS OF AROUND
1500M...WHICH IS REALLY NOT TOO HIGH AND I DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR TORNADOES. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES SHOULD THEY
OCCUR...5-9 PM. A FEW TORNADOES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

MONDAY...THIS WILL STILL BE A BREEZY DAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. IT WILL BE A DRY DAY.

TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE CWA WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MAINLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS
MONTANA AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BEING
INGESTED INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY THURSDAY.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES...AND THE SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL LIFT IS SUPPORTED BY THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
SHIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP PULL DECENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH AT LEAST LOW TO MID 50 TO EVEN 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO FORM OUT WEST ACROSS NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THE BEST INSTABILITY
AXIS REMAINS FOCUSED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION INDICATING NEAR 2500 J/KG NEAR IMPERIAL NEBRASKA. ONLY
ABOUT 1000 J/KG SLIDES INTO THE WEST BEFORE INSTABILITY DECREASES
WITH NIGHTFALL. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO LIMIT SEVERE WORDING TO
WEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON NEBRASKA TO STOCKTON KANSAS. KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THESE POPS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING TO
EVENTUALLY GET PULLED WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

FOR THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST...AS MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. HOWEVER...SATURDAY COULD
BE INTERESTING...AS THE GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SUGGEST NEAR 3000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-017>019.

UPDATE/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

252 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT HAS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS
MIXING OUT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ALOFT. SATELLITE INDICATES
CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND EAST FROM MARSHALL MN DOWN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 IS FAIRLY FLAT AT
THIS POINT...HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
CLOUDS ARE A BIT MORE VIGOROUS WITH LIGHT ECHOS ON RADAR. AS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES PINWHEELS NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE AREA
EXPECT WEAK CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA TO BE OVERCOME WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND 22Z. HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH INITIAL
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT EXPECT STORMS TO CARRY A HAIL THREAT...WITH HAIL
UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. CAPE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY
THIN...WITH A NORMALIZED CAPE VALUE AROUND 0.15. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT DROPS FROM AROUND 11K FEET TO
7K OR SO...BUT EXPECT STORMS TO BE FAIRLY LINEAR BY THIS POINT.
STORMS SHOULD BECOME LINEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND ONCE THEY DO SO
TAKE ON A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR ABOVE
600 MB IS RELATIVELY DRY...ENHANCING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION...WINDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG ALOFT WITH 40-60 KTS ABOVE 700
MB. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO THE TOP OF THE
TROPOSPHERE...IT SHOULD BE EASY TO BRING WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...AND THINK LARGE SECTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FACES A FAIRLY HIGH WIND THREAT WITH STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST STORMS
TO EXCEED 80 MPH. AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINE...EXPECT HAIL THREAT
TO DIMINISH...WITH POTENTIAL OF HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL. SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ABATE FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY WORKING EAST FORECAST
AREA AFTER 05Z. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW LYING STRATUS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 60...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /BT

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BOTH PROVE TO BE BREEZY AND COOLER AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WRAPS UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY AND MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MILDER ON
MONDAY WITH GOOD MIXING SO WENT JUST A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
THE MIXY ENVIRONMENT. RELATIVELY COOL ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WINDS SHOULD NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH SO
STICKING WITH MID TO UPPER 40S SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH COLDER AIR IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER AND IT
WILL STILL BE BREEZY. WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND A
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WILL FEEL FAIRLY COOL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER VERY COOL DAY...ALBEIT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND. REGARDLESS LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S WILL STILL FEEL PRETTY COOL. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT FOR RAINFALL
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. IF THIS SYSTEM IS 3 TO 6 HOURS
FASTER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS COULD EASILY GET STUCK IN THE 50S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY TO EXCEED A
QUARTER OF AN INCH MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR SO. INSTABILITY PRETTY MARGINAL SO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA.

IN THE LATTER PERIODS(THU/SUN)...STILL LOOKS COOL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT ON SUNDAY WITH JUST HOW WARM TO GO BUT OVERALL DECENT
AGREEMENT ON BROAD SCALE PATTERN. LOOKING PRETTY MUCH DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A TAIL END THREAT ON THURSDAY AS WAVE EXITS THE AREA
THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR
RETURNS. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FRIDAY
THEN INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY. /08

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THREAT FOR STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 22Z NEAR AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ROUGHLY EAST OF A BROOKINGS TO YANKTON
SOUTH DAKOTA LINE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...INCLUDING
FSD AND SUX. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE A THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS. MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LAYER OF LOW LYING
STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COMPLEX EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FOR NOW...JUST WENT SCATTERED BUT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE TO
CEILING IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ014.

SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SDZ071.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE HEAT TODAY...THEN IF STORMS OCCUR
IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND/OR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

SCATTERED /5-6K/ CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS DRIER
AIR FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THE SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUST TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 27.18Z
AND 27.20Z. FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EXPECT THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUST TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 27.20Z AND
27.22Z. ALL OF THE WIND GUSTS WILL COME TO AN END BETWEEN 28.00Z AND
28.02Z.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 28.09Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST PREVALENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. WITH THE LOSS
INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL WANE 28.12Z.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE