Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/26/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1055 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE LAST 30
MINUTES SO CANCELLED THE ADVISORY. THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS ALSO
BEEN CANCELLED AS MOST OBS SHOWING RH/S ABOVE 15 PERCENT WITH MOST
AREAS SHOWING WINDS BELOW 25 MPH THOUGH OCCNL GUSTS ABOVE THAT
THRESHOLD CONTINUE. THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED NEW
MEXICO THIS EVENING WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL CAUSING SOME
SHOWERS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND EVEN SNOWFALL AROUND VAIL
PASS. THESE SHOULD END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST
CAPTURES ALL THIS QUITE WELL SO NO CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
THE COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING SOUTH ACROSS SE UTAH/SW COLORADO. AT
03Z THIS EVENING...THE COLD FRONT IS PASSING THE DURANGO AIRPORT.
WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR
MASS...WINDS STILL FAIRLY STRONG AND ELECTED TO EXTEND THE RED
FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 11 PM.
THE VAIL PASS WEB CAM SHOWED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE GRASSY
AND DIRT SURFACES. HIGH MOUNTAIN REMOTE SENSORS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 32F AND INDICATE THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON ABOVE 10K FEET. THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH THE HRRR SHOWING FAST
DROP OFF IN QPF AMOUNTS AFTER 06Z. ELECTED TO ISSUE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THE IMPACT OF LATE SEASON SNOWFALL
INSTEAD OF HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WIDESPREAD SNOW ABOVE
10K FEET IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS (AND
PAVEMENTS MAY STAY WET WITH SLUSHY AREAS).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 723 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
AS THE NOSE OF JET PUNCHES INTO WRN COLORADO...PRECIPITATION HAS
INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO.
RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASE...ALTHOUGH TRACE AMOUNTS
MAY BE THE ONLY RAINFALL THE LOWER VALLEYS RECEIVE AS THE EVENING
SOUNDING SHOWS A MOSTLY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE
WATER DID RISE TO ONE HALF INCH. THESE SHOWERS HAVE ENHANCED GUSTY
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH. FARTHER
SOUTH...GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGER WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH
FAIRLY COMMON. NO UPDATES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THAT EXPIRES AT
9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING OVER NORTHERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS DROPPING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN. DARKENING IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THIS
LIFT BEING ENHANCED BY ARRIVING JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED PV LOBE
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLER AIR
MOVING IN WITH THE TROF ALSO AIDING ASCENT. 88D MOSAIC IS
RESPONDING BY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MAINLY NORTH OF A
MOAB TO MONTROSE TO GUNNISON LINE WHICH IS NEAR WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT HAS SETTLED AND MAY BE WAVERING. THIS LIFT SEEMS TO BE
HELPING TO MIX OUT THE ATMOSPHERE NORTH OF FRONT AS WELL WITH
WINDS PICKING UP AT GJT THE PAST HOUR OR SO. SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING VERY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE GRAND
VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FARTHER SOUTH IN ADVISORY
REGION STRONG MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHING WIND
GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH AND EXPECT THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEY COULD
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SO WILL LEAVE ADVISORY AS IS. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION THE BEST FOCUS CONTINUES TO POINT AT THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN UNDER THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT.
MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE NORTH OF THE FRONT SO SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET PRECIPITATION TO THE SURFACE. ONE CAVEAT HOWEVER IS DRIER
AIR IS ADVECTING IN A LOW LEVELS FROM WYOMING SO WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS ON THE TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT OF OUR
REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ABOVE THE
9000 FT LEVEL BUT SHOULD NOT ANTICIPATING A LARGE IMPACT ATTM WITH
AN INCH OR LESS LIMITED TO THE VEGETATION. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
BE SAGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AS WELL AND THIS MAY
HELP TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH SO POPS REFLECT THIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH SOME VALLEYS IN THE NORTH DROPPING TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER ON THURSDAY AND COOLER DAY
LOOKS ON TRACK AND THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN
PLACE BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING STARTS POPPING THE CUMULUS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY DUE TO THE
MOIST DENDRITIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE RUN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL OUTSIDE THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND DID USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
A STRONGER WESTERN SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL QUICKLY BACK AND INCREASE THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT STRUCTURE BACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA. ATTM THE MODELS ARE PUTTING OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THIS IS MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF ACCAS MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE STRONG WAA PATTERN. FOR NOW
JUST PUT IN SOME ISOLATED MENTION OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST CWA. BETTER MIXING AND THE WAA SHOULD PUSH LOWS UP A FEW
DEGREES OVER TONIGHT/S READINGS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON DROPPING THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND THEN LIFTING IT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SAT OR SAT
EVENING. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE INDICATED WITH THIS FRONT...SO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY NE UT AND NW CO SHOULD
SUFFICE FOR NOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS. WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT WELL TO OUR NW...MAY
SEE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SLOW ON SATURDAY SO
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE SAT OVER ALL BUT NE UT.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW 40-45 KTS AT 700 MB...WITH SOME
AREAS OF 50-55 KTS WINDS INDICATED FRI NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR FRI
AND SAT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS PERSISTING FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS IN THE WEST TO NW FLOW.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG WITH THE LOW
TO MID CEILINGS THAT ARE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. IFR CONDITIONS AT
KASE THIS HOUR DUE TO SNOW SHOULD ALSO BECOME VFR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS SHOWERS END. FOR TOMORROW...VFR WILL BE FELT ACROSS
ENTIRE CWA AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL CO THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF DOWN DAY WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH LOCALIZED BORDERLINE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST CO.
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE NEXT STORM DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
CURRENTLY STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAS NOW BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING. AM CONCERNED THAT WINDS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST ACROSS THE MID-SLOPES AND THERMAL BELTS WHERE HUMIDITY
RECOVERY MAY BE THE POOREST. DO NOT DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF NON-CRITICAL CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR
VALLEYS...BUT WITH ANY VALLEY INVERSIONS BEING SHALLOW AND EASILY
MIXED OUT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD RETURN AS EARLY
AS MID-MORNING SATURDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200>203-207-290-292-293.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1026 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM...COLD FRONT STILL APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST NORTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS
+15 TO +17 C AIR AT 850MB AHEAD OF FRONT ALONG WITH 60-65 F
DEWPOINTS WHILE BEHIND FRONT SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND
850MB TEMPS DROP TO 10 TO 12 C. LATEST RUC FORECAST SHOWS COLD
FRONT DOESN`T REACH ALBANY TILL 8 AM. UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE TO SOUTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA AS SEEN ON SAT PICS AND
ALSO ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT IN VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS...
A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC CANADA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING...THEN CROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORECAST AS ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AHEAD THE
BOUNDARY. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS CRESTING OVER THE REGION MONDAY. LOOKING AT A PLEASANT
AND FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH THE FLOW ALOFT PARALLELING THE
BOUNDARY IT WILL GET HUNG UP OVER THE REGION OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEM
(MCS) TO OUR WEST. FLOW ACROSS REGION WILL BE WEAK AND THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE GFS HAS SHOWALTER
VALUES DROPPING TO BELOW ZERO TO -2C. THE GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
0-10KM INCREASES BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES OF 200 TO 500 J/KG
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK...TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF ANY MCS IS VERY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED...BUT THE
TIMING AND IMPACT OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
MEMORIAL DAY...A WARM FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE NY/PA
BORDER...AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HPC
EXTENDED GRAPHICS. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN GGEM ALSO HAS THIS
BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF/CAN
GGEM/GFS HAS A DISTURBANCE IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY IMPLIED. THE
GFS HAS SHOWALTER VALUES BELOW ZERO /-2C TO -6C/...AND MUCAPES IN
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH POCKETS GREATER. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACH 6.5-7C/KM. THE DEEP SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL
WITH GENERALLY 25 KTS OR LESS. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS HIGH AT AROUND
1.25-1.50" SOME HVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS
INCLUDED FOR THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA ACCORDING TO THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...AND HPC BLASTS INTO A WARM SECTOR WITH THE
COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-40 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG
ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY MAYBE FROM THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD...AS SOME STRATUS MAY LINGER OVER THE
ERN ZONES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE MARGINALLY STEEP.
ONCE AGAIN...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH
MULTI CELL CLUSTERS AND LINEAR SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS SOME
SUPERCELLS. WE KEPT THE POPS AT HIGH CHANCE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LIKELY VALUES IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT PRESSES EASTWARD IN THE MORNING WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE H850 LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL TO FALL TO 5-10C. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL LOWER...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL WITH SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HERE.
FRIDAY...A WAVE MAY APPROACH FROM THE TN VALLEY...AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE IN THE DAY BASED ON THE
GFS. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN
TOWARDS FRIDAY EVENING. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN FOR NOW.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LONG
TERM...WITH PCPN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A SHOWER FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS DRY FOR THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS MINIMAL
FOR REACHING THE TAF SITES...SO WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SOME MVFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE ALL TAF SITES AROUND DAY BREAK WITH
IFR POSSIBLE AT KGFL.
ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING TO
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES...WITH JUST SCT
LOWER CLOUDS AND SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS. WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT
NIGHT WITH AGAIN THE CHANCE OF MORNING FOG ALL SITES ON SUNDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTN AND AT NIGHT.
MON-TUE...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA.
TUE NIGHT...MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHC TSRA. IFR POSSIBLE.
WED...IMPROVING TO VFR. CHC SHRA IN THE MRNG.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMUMS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 4OS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEMS (MCS) TO OUR WEST. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PART OF THE AREA. THE TRACK...TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF ANY MCS IS VERY UNCERTAIN. NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
815 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012
CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING COLLIER COUNTY AS E AND W COAST SEA
BREEZE COLLIDE WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DUE TO AN OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION TO THE S. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP PACKAGE TO ELIMINATE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING 1ST PERIOD AND TO EXTEND
POSSIBLE CONVECTION IN COLLIER COUNTY UNTIL 10 PM. OTHER THAN THAT
...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
IN THE MARINE ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL ENTITY BY LATE TONIGHT.
A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO REMAINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING JUST WEST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MEANWHILE, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH SOUTH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED IN LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATERS, SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST, POPS
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 10-20 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
WITH A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT, ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND
LOCAL MESO-SCALE EFFECTS. THE HRRR SHOWS THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AND PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BY 21Z. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR EVEN
MARGINALLY SEVERE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELL MERGERS. STRONG WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR.
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CONTINUING TO ADVANCE INLAND,
LITTLE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END AFTER 00Z, ALTHOUGH
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WHILE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN BE
STRONG, ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER CONSISTENT AND SHOWS THE
DEVELOPING WARM-CORE LOW COMING TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT WILL THEN
SLOW AND ULTIMATELY GO BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AND H85 WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, CONVECTION MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE POSSIBLE WARM-CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
WEAKENED, BUT WILL ONLY SLOWLY PUSH BACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. SO WHILE THE
BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH, A RATHER
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY PREVAIL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS
DEVELOPED AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS
AND THEN THEY COULD DRIFT BACK CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST TERMINALS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO DEVELOP
AT KAPF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A SMALL SWELL MAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH
COAST, BY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS
THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A POSSIBLE WARM CORE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON LOCAL MARINE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 87 74 88 / 10 30 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 87 75 88 / 10 30 20 40
MIAMI 75 88 74 89 / 10 30 20 40
NAPLES 74 91 73 90 / 30 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...14/MJB
AVIATION/RADAR...55/CWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
736 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY
KEPT VCTS FOR KAPF AS PREVAILING DUE TO THE ACTIVITY ALREADY
PRESENT...WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT POSSIBLY BY 26/01Z. LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. INTRODUCED
VCTS AT ALL EASTERN TERMINALS BY 26/15Z. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
EXPECTED TO KICK IN BY 26/18Z AT KAPF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012/
DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL ENTITY BY LATE
TONIGHT. A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING JUST
WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. MEANWHILE, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE THIS FEATURE HAS
AIDED IN LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATERS, SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST, POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED
TO 10-20 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT, ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND
LOCAL MESO-SCALE EFFECTS. THE HRRR SHOWS THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AND PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BY 21Z. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR EVEN
MARGINALLY SEVERE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELL MERGERS. STRONG WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR.
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CONTINUING TO ADVANCE INLAND,
LITTLE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END AFTER 00Z, ALTHOUGH
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WHILE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN BE
STRONG, ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER CONSISTENT AND SHOWS THE
DEVELOPING WARM-CORE LOW COMING TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT WILL THEN
SLOW AND ULTIMATELY GO BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AND H85 WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, CONVECTION MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE POSSIBLE WARM-CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
WEAKENED, BUT WILL ONLY SLOWLY PUSH BACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. SO WHILE THE
BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH, A RATHER
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY PREVAIL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE CLIMO.
AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS
DEVELOPED AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS
AND THEN THEY COULD DRIFT BACK CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST TERMINALS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO DEVELOP
AT KAPF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS.
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A SMALL SWELL MAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH
COAST, BY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS
THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A POSSIBLE WARM CORE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON LOCAL MARINE
CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 87 74 88 / 10 30 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 87 75 88 / 10 30 20 40
MIAMI 75 88 74 89 / 10 30 20 40
NAPLES 74 91 73 90 / 30 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...15/JR
AVIATION/RADAR...17/ERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
217 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...AS MOST OF
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE PENINSULA ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. WILL INCLUDE VCSH/VCTS IN THIS PACKAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. PERIODS WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWER/TSTM THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED
WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ANTICIPATED ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC
COASTS. 85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012/
UPDATE...CHALLENGING FORECAST. LOCAL AREA HAS COME UNDER
SUBSIDENCE TODAY AS EVIDENCED BY LITTLE CONVECTION. WE WERE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF A DEPARTING JET. 500 MB TEMP HAS WARMED QUITE A
BIT...NOW AT -6.9C ON THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING. SO NOT AS
UNSTABLE. CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY OFF THE SE FL COAST
ALL DAY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DID DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. CONVECTION OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS NOW EVEN
DIMINISHED. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF HEADING ESE...AND MODELS INDICATE MORE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS
IS TO KEEP THE BEST CONVERGENCE/HEAVY RAIN JUST OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIES ALONG THE SE
FL COAST. BUT SE FLOW IS STRENGTHENING SOME AND THIS COULD
INCREASE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NW ONSHORE THE
ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT`S OVERDOING ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY.
SO HERE`S THE BOTTOM LINE - THE MOST FAVORED AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE OFF OUR ATLANTIC
COAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE COASTAL
CONVERGENCE, WILL MAINTAIN POPS AS IS. STILL LIKE THE FLOOD WATCH
FOR MIAMI- DADE COUNTY THROUGH 8 PM THU...GIVEN THE EXTREME
RAINFALL WHICH OCCURRED FROM THE SWEETWATER-DORAL AREAS ON TUESDAY
WITH STANDING WATER REMAINING IN AREAS. IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAIN TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THESE HARD HIT LOCALES. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012/
AVIATION...
SOUTH FLORIDA IS AT THE EDGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE EAST
AND ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS INCLUDE VCSH AFTER MIDNIGHT SINCE MOST GUIDANCE INSISTS
IN INCREASING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NIGHT NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FOR THURSDAY WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TAF LOCATIONS INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR
VCTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST BELOW 10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012/
UPDATE...CONVECTION TODAY HAS BEEN VERY MINIMAL DUE TO BROAD
SCALE SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER, AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MOVING RATHER FAST TO THE
EAST. THIS COULD INDUCE SOME OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC, AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL, TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NW AND
ONSHORE THE SE FLORIDA COAST OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAIN FORECAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS WE ARE ON THE EDGE OF DEEP CARIBBEAN MOISTURE AND
TROUGH AXIS. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.
/GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012/
FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...
POSSIBLE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS FOCUSED INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...
DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE CWA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT THIS TIME IS GIVING THE SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEAS A NEAR 0 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST KEEPING THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA OR
JUST TO THE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING
FLOW IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE LATEST PWAT`S FROM THE FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING 2 TO
2.4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE ALL TIME MAXIMUM PWAT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TAPERING DOWN TO
ISOLATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS. ON
THURSDAY...THE ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER
THE INTERIOR AREAS TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...DUE TO THE GROUND BEING VERY
SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS RAINS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE
POTENTIAL OF MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE WEAK LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS PUSHING
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH FOR
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WHICH IN TURN WILL REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND...DUE TO THE NORTHEAST
STEERING FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS ARE NOW SPLITTING ON THE RETURN
MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 23/00Z
RUN OF THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL TRIES TO BRING THE LOW BACK TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...WHILE THE 23/12Z GFS
MODEL PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD TAKING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH IT. SO AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...UNTIL THE MODELS BECOME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER FOR
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WINDS OVER THE CWA WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS
TONIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND WHILE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET
FOR BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCEC FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS DUE TO THE WIND SPEEDS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCT.
HYDROLOGY...
FOR DETAILS ON THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA PLEASE SEE
THE FLOOD WATCH AND THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK STATEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 75 89 77 / 50 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 77 88 78 / 70 40 20 20
MIAMI 87 76 89 77 / 70 40 20 20
NAPLES 89 74 90 74 / 40 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR
SOUTH MIAMI DADE-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...15/JR
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
241 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OFFSHORE. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND THE APPROACH OF
A COLD FRONT...MAY RESULT IN INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IT APPEARS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DEWPOINT GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
STRETCH GENERALLY ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA).
UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH A PAIR OF VORTS THAT THE
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP TO OUR NORTH TODAY. DRY MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE FA APPARENT ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS A DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING NOTED. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SE LOW LEVEL
SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT COULD BRING THE WEAK TROUGH NORTH A LITTLE...AS
WELL AS AIDING A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAKING IT INTO OUR FA. LOCAL
MODEL AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS...AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM...THAT COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OR SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND ISO TS...MAINLY SE TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SHIFT
TO OUR EAST...WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF...AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING...OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. UPPER HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME UPPER
HEIGHT RISES FOR OUR FA...GENERALLY KEEPING OUR FA DRY AND
CAPPED. UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT NE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...REMAINING TO OUR NW NEAR KY/TN...WHILE THE OFFSHORE UPPER
AND SURFACE LOWS SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN A CLOCKWISE
DIRECTION AROUND THE HIGH. MODELS APPEAR TO KEEP THE LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/IMPACTS WELL TO OUR SE...AND GENERALLY
RESTRICT CONVECTION TO THE MOUNTAINS AND COAST SAT/SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE ON WEAKENING THE UPPER HIGH...AND
DEVELOPING WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THEY ALSO SUGGEST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVES WHAT HAPPENS TO THE UPPER/SURFACE LOWS OFFSHORE THE SE US
COAST...AND WHETHER ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT/TRANSITION IS
POSSIBLE. ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE NE/EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BEFORE KICKING OUT TO THE ENE AS THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS
AND UPPER TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS
SPLITS THE UPPER ENERGY INTO TWO SEGMENTS...ONE THAT MOVES WEST
AND BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW WEST INTO NORTH FLORIDA/NE GOMEX AREA
MON/TUE. THE GFS SOLUTION RESULTS IN SOME MOISTURE INCREASE FOR
OUR FA LATE SUN INTO MON...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD CONTINUE
TO KEEP OUR POPS MINIMAL FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED
A BLEND OF ONGOING FORECAST AND LATEST GUIDANCE...PROVIDING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SUN AFTN THROUGH MON NT...WITH CHANCE POPS TUE AFTN
THROUGH WED WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT POSSIBLE
MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 13Z. RAP AND NAM BUFKIT INDICATING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR CIGS THROUGH 13Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE OTHER GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING THIS.
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR OGB GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SEA BREEZE FRONT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10
MPH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND
EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION REMAINS IN NORTH
CAROLINA. STILL AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE SEA-BREEZE AND OTHER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE KEPT A FEW SHOWERS GOING. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S STILL LOOK OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER.
DRY AND QUITE WARM CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS NEAR 90
TO THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BY MONDAY AS TO WHEN UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD WEAKEN ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OR TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SPREADING SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA. ECMWF HAS SURFACE LOW CLOSER
TO SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY AND THEREFORE PULLS MOISTURE IN SOONER
THAN THE GFS. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN LIKE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE TO THE REGION. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT POSSIBLE
MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 13Z. RAP AND NAM BUFKIT INDICATING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MVFR CIGS THROUGH 13Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE OTHER GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING THIS.
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR OGB GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SEA BREEZE FRONT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10
MPH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
540 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WITH A CLOSED CENTER OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LARGE SCALE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
US...WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH TO LIE
ALONG THE KS/OK STATE LINE.
THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AROUND 00Z.
SHEAR PROFILES ALONG THE WARM FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
GROWTH...WITH STRONG WINDS/HAIL THE MAIN THREAT OVER OUR AREA.
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WITH STRATUS BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP OVER THE CWA. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH BL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH TD VALUES IN THE MID 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WITH OVERALL TREND INITIALLY QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED BRINGING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE CWA AFTER
06Z...SO THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR FOG/STRATUS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH COULD SEE FOG
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUSY PERIOD WEATHER-WISE WITH
MULTIPLE CONCERNS. SURFACE LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. ADDITIONALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
DEEPLY MIXED. WITH MODERATE FLOW ALOFT...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH IN HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET SO OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE GOING HIGH WIND WATCH.
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY REVOLVE AROUND POTENTIAL FOR
NEAR-RECORD/RECORD TEMPS AND BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CURRENT RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE
SUBSECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION BUT SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH MANY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. AT THE SAME TIME...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
EASTERN COLORADO EXPECTED TO APPROACH 10 PERCENT. HOWEVER...FUELS
HAVE GREENED QUITE A BIT WITH THE RECENT PRECIPITATION SO NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT PLANNED THOUGH ALL OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WINDS.
FINALLY...ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN`T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BROAD-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO BE POTENTIALLY
VERY ACTIVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM A
SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...STEEP LOW/MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS WILL AID IN UPDRAFT
FORMATION AND ORGANIZATION. LOW LEVEL PARAMETERS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES AFTER 21Z AS THE CAP ERODES
RAPIDLY. FOCUS SHIFTS EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY 03Z.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOCUS FOR
ASCENT IS POSITIONED EAST OF THE KS/CO BORDER WHERE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS CERTAINLY MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE AS COMPARED TO THE EC BUT FEEL COMFORTABLE CARRYING SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT...WILL SEE
TEMPS ON THURSDAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE WESTERN
CONUS MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO GO DOWN TONIGHT AS STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. STRATUS WILL DEVELOP RELATIVELY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE AND LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS. FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND
WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KGLD AROUND 09Z IT WILL SCOUR OUT THE
STRATUS AND FOG...BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH KMCK UNTIL THE 12Z
TO 15Z TIME FRAME AND THIS MAY ALLOW VLIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
THERE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU MAY 24 2012
RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY.
GOODLAND.....97 IN 2006
HILL CITY....99 IN 1912
MCCOOK.......98 IN 1967
BURLINGTON...95 IN 1942
YUMA.........96
TRIBUNE......101
COLBY........98
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR COZ090>092.
NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR/FOLTZ
LONG TERM...FOLTZ
AVIATION...024
CLIMATE...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
258 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS T HE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY
TRACKING WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES OVER NORTHERN COLORADO AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTH INTO NORTHCENTRAL TEXAS...AND THEN NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
COLORADO.
TONIGHT...A CLOSED LOW CENTER WITHING THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO. A STRONG LLJ IS
ADVERTISED TO DEVELOP BY 06Z TONIGHT WHICH COULD ALSO ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA. VERY
STRONG SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE
EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. IM ALSO NOT SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH
TD WILL RECOVER NORTH OF THE FRONT. I KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH BEST COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WHEN LLJ
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATION OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT WITH EASTERLY FLOW AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW...SO I KEPT
PATCHY FOG MENTION.
FRIDAY..SHOWER/THUNDERSTOM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TIMING OF
WARM FRONT FRIDAY WITH NAM THE SLOW OUTLIER. NAM SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP STRATUS/FOG IN PLACE ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AIRMASS.
GFS/ECMWF FAVOR THE CLEARING SOLUTION ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST..WHICH IS WHERE I LEANED THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT TO THIS PERIOD WAS TO BUMP
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A NOTCH OR TWO WITH SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2012
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARING POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE DAY WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP. H85 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND
30C OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID TO UPPER 20S C ELSEWHERE.
RESULT WILL BE AFTERNOON TEMPS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. EVERYONE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST THE LOW/MID 90S.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WINDY DAY ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LATEST GUIDANCE HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS. CONSIDERED
HOISTING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WESTERN HALF BUT OPTED TO HOLD OFF
AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO HAVE ANOTHER RUN OF NWP GUIDANCE. AT
THE LEAST...APPEARS AS THOUGH A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL TANK ACROSS THE WEST WHICH WILL
RESULT IN RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. FUELS PAGE
INDICATES SUFFICIENT GREEN-UP IS ONGOING WHICH MAY LIMIT FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT THIS IS ALSO SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST SHIFTS. DISCREPANCIES DO
EXIST IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS
JUSTIFIED. GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE OF VERTICAL SOUNDING
PROFILES...ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THOUGH
SHEAR PROFILES DON`T BECOME STRONGLY FAVORABLE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...POTENT MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE
THE ULTIMATE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...DEW
POINT WILL SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN THE LOWER
60S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL AID IN UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION WHILE STRONG LOW LEVEL PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT
A TORNADO THREAT. GREATEST THREAT IS CURRENTLY INDICATED TO BE
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. INTERESTED
PARTIES WILL WANT TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARY MID/UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RESULT SHOULD BE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA. BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER
PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. WILL CARRY
PRIMARILY CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT THU MAY 24 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. BASED ON EXPECTED SCATTERED
COVERAGE I INCLUDED VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 04-05Z. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM DIRECTLY IMPACTS ONE
OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 10-11Z AS
GOOD BL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH AND EAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE ON FRONTAL TIMING FRIDAY...WITH NAM SLOWER AND HOLDING
STRATUS/FOG ON LONGER. NAM/MET WOULD ALSO INDICATE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER CIGS OVER BOTH TERMINALS. THIS IS THE OUTLIER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING OVER KGLD AND AROUND 18Z AT KMCK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU MAY 24 2012
RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY.
GOODLAND.....97 IN 2006
HILL CITY....99 IN 1912
MCCOOK.......98 IN 1967
BURLINGTON...95 IN 1942
YUMA.........96
TRIBUNE......101
COLBY........98
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR/FOLTZ
LONG TERM...FOLTZ
AVIATION...DR
CLIMATE...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
127 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS T HE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY
TRACKING WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES OVER NORTHERN COLORADO AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTH INTO NORTHCENTRAL TEXAS...AND THEN NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
COLORADO.
A CLOSED LOW CENTER WITHING THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO. A STRONG LLJ IS
ADVERTISED TO DEVELOP BY 06Z TONIGHT WHICH COULD ALSO ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA. VERY
STRONG SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
BE EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. IM ALSO NOT SURE ABOUT HOW
MUCH TD WILL RECOVER NORTH OF THE FRONT. I KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH BEST COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WHEN LLJ
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATION OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT WITH EASTERLY FLOW AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW...SO I KEPT
PATCHY FOG MENTION.
FRIDAY..SHOWER/THUNDERSTOM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TIMING OF
WARM FRONT FRIDAY WITH NAM THE SLOW OUTLIER. NAM SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP STRATUS/FOG IN PLACE ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AIRMASS.
GFS/ECMWF FAVOR THE CLEARING SOLUTION ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST..WHICH IS WHERE I LEANED THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU MAY 24 2012
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LIFTING UPPER LOW INTO IDAHO AND UPPER
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. JUST HOW
WINDY IS THE QUESTION. SHOULD SEE SOLID ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT WARNING
CRITERIA GUSTS JUST YET. HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. MAY
SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH RIGHT NOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
SUNDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO MONTANA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
IT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S GENERALLY EXPECTED AS
SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA WHERE
FRONT IS EXPECTED.
MONDAY...DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
TUESDAY...SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES DOWN FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT THU MAY 24 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. BASED ON EXPECTED SCATTERED
COVERAGE I INCLUDED VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 04-05Z. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM DIRECTLY IMPACTS ONE
OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 10-11Z AS
GOOD BL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH AND EAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE ON FRONTAL TIMING FRIDAY...WITH NAM SLOWER AND HOLDING
STRATUS/FOG ON LONGER. NAM/MET WOULD ALSO INDICATE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER CIGS OVER BOTH TERMINALS. THIS IS THE OUTLIER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING OVER KGLD AND AROUND 18Z AT KMCK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU MAY 24 2012
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS SFC
WINDS GUSTS OVER 45 MPH AND RH VALUES DROP WELL BELOW 20 PERCENT.
QUESTION BECOMES GREEN-UP CONDITIONS AND IMPACT OF LAST NIGHT/THIS
MORNINGS RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND ONE HOUR FUELS. NO
HIGHLITES ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU MAY 24 2012
RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY.
GOODLAND.....97 IN 2006
HILL CITY....99 IN 1912
MCCOOK.......98 IN 1967
BURLINGTON...95 IN 1942
YUMA.........96
TRIBUNE......101
COLBY........98
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...007
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...007
CLIMATE...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1237 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
A 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ONE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WAS PLACED ACROSS COLORADO AND UTAH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED IN EASTERN WYOMING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL JET
WAS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A COLD (-26 TO -27C) UPPER
LOW THAT WAS NEAR THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. 500MB INDICATED 90
METER HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE NORTH PLATTE SOUNDING AT 12Z. A 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER LOCATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
EASTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT AT 12Z EXTENDED FROM
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FRONT SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S AND 850MB DEWPOINT RANGED FROM 13 TO 16C.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
THE SHORTER TERM MODELS OF THE NAM AND THE HRRR NOW SHOW THERE WILL
NOT BE ANY PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
THROUGH OUR CWA, WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST BUT TRAVELING THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA, NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA AND POINTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS SOME CIRRUS AROUND AND THINK THE GRIDS WILL
PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. WHEN THE FRONT FIRST WENT THROUGH,
THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY PICKED UP INTO ADVISORY LEVELS,
AND THUS A SHORT TERM WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THAT AREA WEST OF
A DIGHTON TO MONTEZUMA LINE, AND ALSO NORTH OF A JOHNSON CITY TO
MONTEZUMA LINE. AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION,
WINDS HAD FALLEN BACK TO LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT HUGOTON AND SCOTT CITY. THIS WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT
09Z, AND SHOULD NOT SHOW UP IN THE NEXT ZONE ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S NEAR CENTURY MARKS, DUE TO THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 70S NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL COME BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT. JUST HOW FAST NORTH IT WILL MOVES IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS. THE NAM MODEL BRINGS THE FRONT NORTH THE
FASTEST, WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SLOWER. BY THE TIME THE
FRONT REACHES OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF ELLIS, TREGO, RUSH, NESS,
LANE AND SCOTT BY 09Z, THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN
THE ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. I ONLY PLACED 20
POPS IN, AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION. CLOUDS
WILL BLANKET MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND WINDS
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE
FRONT AND EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH NORTH OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, ONLY FALLING TO THE MID 60S IN THE
MEDICINE LODGE AND PRATT AREAS, INTO THE LOWER 60S FROM LIBERAL TO
DODGE CITY TO LARNED, AND INTO THE MIDDLE 50S FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT
CITY TO WAKEENEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU
MAY 24 2012
A CHALLENGING FORECAST LIES AHEAD FOR THE COMING SEVERAL DAYS, AS A
FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR POSSIBLE. BY FRIDAY MORNING,
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FRONT. THE GFS PRODUCES QPF AS
EARLY AS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND REALLY
INCREASING THE QPF AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME. BY CONTRAST THE NAM AND
ECMWF ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A DRY SOLUTION. THE CONVECTION PRODUCED
IN THESE CASES ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE EDGE OF A CAPPING LATER IN
THE MID LEVELS THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. IN EITHER
CASE; STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
MORNING, OR BREAKING THE CAP LATE IN THE DAY FARTHER NORTH, QUARTER
TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY
EVENT IS PROBABLY ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF AND NAM GIVEN THE
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF 13 TO 14 DEGREES C. IF THE
WARM AIR ALOFT IS STRONG ENOUGH OF A CAP ON FRIDAY, THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MIGHT BE RELEGATED EVEN FARTHER NORTH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED
95 DEGREES IN THIS WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LIKELY HIT 100
DEGREES OR MORE IN THE RED HILLS REGION. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME
IF THE SMOKE FROM THE NEW MEXICO FIRES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
INHIBITING INSOLATION WHICH IN TURN COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE AFOREMENTIONED VALUES. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER
IN THE NEXT 24 OR SO HOURS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WOULD SEEM TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE TRIGGERED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT CLEAR AT ALL
JUST WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT BE LOCATED AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
ISOLATED DISCREET CONVECTION WITHIN AMPLE SHEAR FOR AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING UP TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL.
A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY.
THE FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE AN ADVANCING UPPER
TROUGH WITH A LARGE COLD POOL (COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT) AND A
LEAD UPPER JET`S RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH APPEAR
TO SUPPORT A TORNADIC SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE WARM FRONT-SURFACE LOW INTERSECTION.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO CREATE MORE UNCERTAINTY.
THE OVERALL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE A FLATTENING OF THE UPPER FLOW
AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD, WITH TIME ALLOW DRIER AIR TO SETTLE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
REDUCING THE ODDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEFORE THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
TREND RAPIDLY TOWARD STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN BY AROUND DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. TOWARDS
EVENING AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN
TO FALL ALONG EASTERN COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TONIGHT AND BASED ON BUFR SOUNDINGS THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
BEGIN TO SATURATE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER
09Z AT DDC AND GCK. CLOUD BASES APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT
HYS. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER FROM THE NAM THESE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE TOWARDS LATE MORNING AS A
SOUTHEAST/EAST WIND CONTINUES AT NEAR 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 62 98 70 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 82 60 97 68 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 85 59 93 66 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 85 62 96 68 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 80 59 89 69 / 10 20 20 20
P28 85 67 96 72 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
642 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
THE SHORTER TERM MODELS OF THE NAM AND THE HRRR NOW SHOW THERE WILL
NOT BE ANY PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
THROUGH OUR CWA, WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST BUT TRAVELING THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA, NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA AND POINTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS SOME CIRRUS AROUND AND THINK THE GRIDS WILL
PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. WHEN THE FRONT FIRST WENT THROUGH,
THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY PICKED UP INTO ADVISORY LEVELS,
AND THUS A SHORT TERM WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THAT AREA WEST OF
A DIGHTON TO MONTEZUMA LINE, AND ALSO NORTH OF A JOHNSON CITY TO
MONTEZUMA LINE. AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION,
WINDS HAD FALLEN BACK TO LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT HUGOTON AND SCOTT CITY. THIS WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT
09Z, AND SHOULD NOT SHOW UP IN THE NEXT ZONE ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S NEAR CENTURY MARKS, DUE TO THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 70S NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL COME BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT. JUST HOW FAST NORTH IT WILL MOVES IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS. THE NAM MODEL BRINGS THE FRONT NORTH THE
FASTEST, WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SLOWER. BY THE TIME THE
FRONT REACHES OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF ELLIS, TREGO, RUSH, NESS,
LANE AND SCOTT BY 09Z, THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN
THE ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. I ONLY PLACED 20
POPS IN, AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION. CLOUDS
WILL BLANKET MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND WINDS
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE
FRONT AND EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH NORTH OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, ONLY FALLING TO THE MID 60S IN THE
MEDICINE LODGE AND PRATT AREAS, INTO THE LOWER 60S FROM LIBERAL TO
DODGE CITY TO LARNED, AND INTO THE MIDDLE 50S FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT
CITY TO WAKEENEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU
MAY 24 2012
A CHALLENGING FORECAST LIES AHEAD FOR THE COMING SEVERAL DAYS, AS A
FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR POSSIBLE. BY FRIDAY MORNING,
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FRONT. THE GFS PRODUCES QPF AS
EARLY AS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND REALLY
INCREASING THE QPF AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME. BY CONTRAST THE NAM AND
ECMWF ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A DRY SOLUTION. THE CONVECTION PRODUCED
IN THESE CASES ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE EDGE OF A CAPPING LATER IN
THE MID LEVELS THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. IN EITHER
CASE; STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
MORNING, OR BREAKING THE CAP LATE IN THE DAY FARTHER NORTH, QUARTER
TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY
EVENT IS PROBABLY ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF AND NAM GIVEN THE
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF 13 TO 14 DEGREES C. IF THE
WARM AIR ALOFT IS STRONG ENOUGH OF A CAP ON FRIDAY, THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MIGHT BE RELEGATED EVEN FARTHER NORTH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED
95 DEGREES IN THIS WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LIKELY HIT 100
DEGREES OR MORE IN THE RED HILLS REGION. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME
IF THE SMOKE FROM THE NEW MEXICO FIRES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
INHIBITING INSOLATION WHICH IN TURN COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE AFOREMENTIONED VALUES. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER
IN THE NEXT 24 OR SO HOURS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WOULD SEEM TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE TRIGGERED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT CLEAR AT ALL
JUST WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT BE LOCATED AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
ISOLATED DISCREET CONVECTION WITHIN AMPLE SHEAR FOR AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING UP TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL.
A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY.
THE FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE AN ADVANCING UPPER
TROUGH WITH A LARGE COLD POOL (COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT) AND A
LEAD UPPER JET`S RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH APPEAR
TO SUPPORT A TORNADIC SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE WARM FRONT-SURFACE LOW INTERSECTION.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO CREATE MORE UNCERTAINTY.
THE OVERALL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE A FLATTENING OF THE UPPER FLOW
AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD, WITH TIME ALLOW DRIER AIR TO SETTLE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
REDUCING THE ODDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEFORE THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
TREND RAPIDLY TOWARD STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN BY AROUND DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING. AS OF 11 UTC MSAS ANALYSIS, THE FRONT WAS POSITIONED
FRONT NEAR KMHK TO KP28. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS A RESULT, NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH
TO UNDER 20 KNOTS AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 62 98 70 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 82 60 97 68 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 85 59 93 66 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 85 62 96 68 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 80 59 89 69 / 10 20 20 20
P28 85 67 96 72 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
410 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
...UPDATED AND RESENT THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
THE SHORTER TERM MODELS OF THE NAM AND THE HRRR NOW SHOW THERE WILL
NOT BE ANY PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
THROUGH OUR CWA, WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST BUT TRAVELING THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA, NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA AND POINTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS SOME CIRRUS AROUND AND THINK THE GRIDS WILL
PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. WHEN THE FRONT FIRST WENT THROUGH,
THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY PICKED UP INTO ADVISORY LEVELS,
AND THUS A SHORT TERM WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THAT AREA WEST OF
A DIGHTON TO MONTEZUMA LINE, AND ALSO NORTH OF A JOHNSON CITY TO
MONTEZUMA LINE. AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION,
WINDS HAD FALLEN BACK TO LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT HUGOTON AND SCOTT CITY. THIS WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT
09Z, AND SHOULD NOT SHOW UP IN THE NEXT ZONE ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S NEAR CENTURY MARKS, DUE TO THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 70S NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL COME BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT. JUST HOW FAST NORTH IT WILL MOVES IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS. THE NAM MODEL BRINGS THE FRONT NORTH THE
FASTEST, WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SLOWER. BY THE TIME THE
FRONT REACHES OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF ELLIS, TREGO, RUSH, NESS,
LANE AND SCOTT BY 09Z, THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN
THE ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. I ONLY PLACED 20
POPS IN, AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION. CLOUDS
WILL BLANKET MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND WINDS
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE
FRONT AND EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH NORTH OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, ONLY FALLING TO THE MID 60S IN THE
MEDICINE LODGE AND PRATT AREAS, INTO THE LOWER 60S FROM LIBERAL TO
DODGE CITY TO LARNED, AND INTO THE MIDDLE 50S FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT
CITY TO WAKEENEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU
MAY 24 2012
A CHALLENGING FORECAST LIES AHEAD FOR THE COMING SEVERAL DAYS, AS A
FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR POSSIBLE. BY FRIDAY MORNING,
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FRONT. THE GFS PRODUCES QPF AS
EARLY AS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND REALLY
INCREASING THE QPF AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME. BY CONTRAST THE NAM AND
ECMWF ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A DRY SOLUTION. THE CONVECTION PRODUCED
IN THESE CASES ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE EDGE OF A CAPPING LATER IN
THE MID LEVELS THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. IN EITHER
CASE; STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
MORNING, OR BREAKING THE CAP LATE IN THE DAY FARTHER NORTH, QUARTER
TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY
EVENT IS PROBABLY ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF AND NAM GIVEN THE
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF 13 TO 14 DEGREES C. IF THE
WARM AIR ALOFT IS STRONG ENOUGH OF A CAP ON FRIDAY, THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MIGHT BE RELEGATED EVEN FARTHER NORTH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED
95 DEGREES IN THIS WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LIKELY HIT 100
DEGREES OR MORE IN THE RED HILLS REGION. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME
IF THE SMOKE FROM THE NEW MEXICO FIRES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
INHIBITING INSOLATION WHICH IN TURN COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE AFOREMENTIONED VALUES. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER
IN THE NEXT 24 OR SO HOURS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WOULD SEEM TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE TRIGGERED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT CLEAR AT ALL
JUST WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT BE LOCATED AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
ISOLATED DISCREET CONVECTION WITHIN AMPLE SHEAR FOR AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING UP TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL.
A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY.
THE FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE AN ADVANCING UPPER
TROUGH WITH A LARGE COLD POOL (COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT) AND A
LEAD UPPER JET`S RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH APPEAR
TO SUPPORT A TORNADIC SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE WARM FRONT-SURFACE LOW INTERSECTION.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO CREATE MORE UNCERTAINTY.
THE OVERALL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE A FLATTENING OF THE UPPER FLOW
AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD, WITH TIME ALLOW DRIER AIR TO SETTLE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
REDUCING THE ODDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEFORE THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
TREND RAPIDLY TOWARD STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN BY AROUND DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AND GUST BRIEFLY INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE. AFTER 09Z, EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE TAF AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 12
TO 13 KNOTS. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ARE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE
150-200 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE, SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 62 97 70 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 82 60 96 68 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 85 59 96 66 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 85 62 100 68 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 80 59 86 69 / 10 10 20 20
P28 85 67 97 72 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
359 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
THE SHORTER TERM MODELS OF THE NAM AND THE HRRR NOW SHOW THERE WILL
NOT BE ANY PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
THROUGH OUR CWA, WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST BUT TRAVELING THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA, NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA AND POINTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS SOME CIRRUS AROUND AND THINK THE GRIDS WILL
PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. WHEN THE FRONT FIRST WENT THROUGH,
THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY PICKED UP INTO ADVISORY LEVELS,
AND THUS A SHORT TERM WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THAT AREA WEST OF
A DIGHTON TO MONTEZUMA LINE, AND ALSO NORTH OF A JOHNSON CITY TO
MONTEZUMA LINE. AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION,
WINDS HAD FALLEN BACK TO LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT HUGOTON AND SCOTT CITY. THIS WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT
09Z, AND SHOULD NOT SHOW UP IN THE NEXT ZONE ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S NEAR CENTURY MARKS, DUE TO THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 70S NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL COME BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT. JUST HOW FAST NORTH IT WILL MOVES IS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS. THE NAM MODEL BRINGS THE FRONT NORTH THE
FASTEST, WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SLOWER. BY THE TIME THE
FRONT REACHES OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF ELLIS, TREGO, RUSH, NESS,
LANE AND SCOTT BY 09Z, THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN
THE ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. I ONLY PLACED 20
POPS IN, AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION. CLOUDS
WILL BLANKET MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND WINDS
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE
FRONT AND EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH NORTH OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, ONLY FALLING TO THE MID 60S IN THE
MEDICINE LODGE AND PRATT AREAS, INTO THE LOWER 60S FROM LIBERAL TO
DODGE CITY TO LARNED, AND INTO THE MIDDLE 50S FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT
CITY TO WAKEENEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
A CHALLENGING FORECAST LIES AHEAD FOR THE COMING SEVERAL DAYS, AS A
FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR POSSIBLE. BY FRIDAY MORNING,
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FRONT. THE GFS PRODUCES QPF AS
EARLY AS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND REALLY
INCREASING THE QPF AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME. BY CONTRAST THE NAM AND
ECMWF ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A DRY SOLUTION. THE CONVECTION PRODUCED
IN THESE CASES ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE EDGE OF A CAPPING LATER IN
THE MID LEVELS THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. IN EITHER
CASE; STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
MORNING, OR BREAKING THE CAP LATE IN THE DAY FARTHER NORTH, QUARTER
TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY
EVENT IS PROBABLY ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF AND NAM GIVEN THE
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF 13 TO 14 DEGREES C. IF THE
WARM AIR ALOFT IS STRONG ENOUGH OF A CAP ON FRIDAY, THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MIGHT BE RELEGATED EVEN FARTHER NORTH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED
95 DEGREES IN THIS WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LIKELY HIT 100
DEGREES OR MORE IN THE RED HILLS REGION. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME
IF THE SMOKE FROM THE NEW MEXICO FIRES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
INHIBITING INSOLATION WHICH IN TURN COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE AFOREMENTIONED VALUES. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER
IN THE NEXT 24 OR SO HOURS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WOULD SEEM TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE TRIGGERED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT CLEAR AT ALL
JUST WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT BE LOCATED AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
ISOLATED DISCREET CONVECTION WITHIN AMPLE SHEAR FOR AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING UP TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL.
A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY.
THE FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE AN ADVANCING UPPER
TROUGH WITH A LARGE COLD POOL (COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT) AND A
LEAD UPPER JET`S RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH APPEAR
TO SUPPORT A TORNADIC SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE WARM FRONT-SURFACE LOW INTERSECTION.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO CREATE MORE UNCERTAINTY.
THE OVERALL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE A FLATTENING OF THE UPPER FLOW
AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD, WITH TIME ALLOW DRIER AIR TO SETTLE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
REDUCING THE ODDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEFORE THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
TREND RAPIDLY TOWARD STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN BY AROUND DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AND GUST BRIEFLY INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE. AFTER 09Z, EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE TAF AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 12
TO 13 KNOTS. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ARE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE
150-200 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE, SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 97 70 97 / 10 10 10 20
GCK 60 96 68 95 / 10 10 10 20
EHA 59 96 66 95 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 62 100 68 96 / 10 10 10 20
HYS 59 86 69 97 / 10 20 20 10
P28 67 97 72 97 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1237 AM MDT THU MAY 24 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MDT THU MAY 24 2012
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE CANCELLATION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 294. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT HAS STALLED OVER WESTERN KANSAS...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVER OUR CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z. CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG AND NORTH OF
STALLED FRONT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR EARLIER THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER THIS IS
REMOVED FROM LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTH. VERY STRONG SHEAR IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING THE FURTHER
NORTH IN THE CWA WHERE TD VALUES IN THE 30-40F RANGE HAVE ADVECTED
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN
SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. LATER TONIGHT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COULD COMBINE WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO BRING ADDITIONAL SEVERE
CHANCES. SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AFTER 06Z...WITH COVERAGE DECREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...PV ANOMALY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND DEEP LAYER DIV Q FIELDS
INDICATE FAIRLY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA. STILL HAVE A FEW TIMING CONCERNS THOUGH...AND THINK HOLDING
ONTO SOME SMALL POPS WARRANTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...AS DIFFERENTIAL TEMP
ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW SFC BASED
INSTABILITY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LESS THAN H5 AT MANY LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA...THINKING ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE STRONGLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND THINK OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ONCE AGAIN WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL WAA DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO H3 JET STREAK LIFTING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEEMS LIKE RECENT SUITE OF MODELS NOT ALL
THAT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT BREAKING OUT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...BUT
GIVEN STRONG AND PERSISTENT WAA/ISENTROPIC FORCING STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ABOVE THE SFC...AND SMALL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
IN AREA OF NEGATIVE THETA E LAPSE RATES...THINK THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THERE DESPITE CURRENT MODEL QPF OUTPUT.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND WILL NOT ONLY PLAY A BIG ROLE ON POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...IT WILL ALSO HAVE A LARGE ROLE IN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT WITH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY. SREF PLUME DATA INDICATING NEARLY A 20 DEGREE
SPREAD IN TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH ABOUT EQUAL CLUSTERING ON
EITHER SIDE...MAINLY ON FRIDAY. PLAN ON KEEPING NEAR MEAN VALUES FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MUCH MORE AGREEMENT ON VERY WARM TEMPS ON
SATURDAY AND HAVE WARMED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.
GIVEN EXPECTED PRESSURE FALL PATTERN AROUND AREA AND LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOMING MAXIMIZED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A NORTHERN MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...WITH BULK OF CWA REMAINING CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE DAY.
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAA PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHARPLY INCREASING CINH PROFILES AND ADVECTING MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS POINT...BUT SOUNDINGS LOOK LIKE ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING LOOK TO BE
VERY SHALLOW/DRIZZLE TYPE PROCESSES AND DO NOT PLAN ON GOING ALONG
WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. APPEARS TO BE LOTS OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG/NORTH OF
FRONT...BUT CINH LOOKS VERY STRONG AND GIVEN RIDGING ALOFT DO NOT
THINK THIS WILL BE OVERCOME.
ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS
BEHIND DRYLINE IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHERE DEEP MIXED LAYER SHOULD
TAP INTO STRONG FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S...WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 50 KTS AND MIXED TDS SUGGESTING A RAPID DROP OFF IN
DEWPOINTS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. IT IS A BIT TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS POINT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANT WINDS IS INCREASING. OTHERWISE...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH ANY
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG DRYLINE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP MIXING AND BULK OF PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT DRYLINE TO MIX EASTWARD WITH BULK OF CWA
IN DRY SECTOR. ENOUGH SPREAD EXISTS TO WARRANT A MORE BROAD BRUSHED
APPROACH TO CHANCES ATTM THOUGH AND WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG/SEVERE HIGH BASED STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE EXTENDED (SAT NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TROUGH/AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. WHILE 06Z GEFS
DATA SHOWS A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PATTERN WITH LARGE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...MODEL SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES DURING THE LATER HALF AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY WITH SMALL SCALE FEATURES. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH LIGHT EASTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW AND
SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH ZONAL
FLOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ASIDE FROM TIMING WITH FROPA ON SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY...LOOKS LIKE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE BELOW VFR BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR NEAR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM. THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT BY SUNRISE. BROKEN TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
POSSIBLE...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AND
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...FS
FIRE WEATHER...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1255 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION TAFS AND DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012
NAM, RAP, AND HRRR WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED UNDER +14C TO +16C 700MB TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT APPEARS TO SERVE AS A CAP ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WERE BETTER LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. IN ADDITION THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE
NAM EVEN SUGGESTS SOME COOLING OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVEL AFTER
21Z ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES, BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND CAPES EARLY TONIGHT GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. ALSO BASED ON 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50
KNOTS ALONG WITH 1000-2000 J/KG THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE. MAIN HAZARD STILL
APPEARS TO BE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.
FURTHER WEST...THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT STAY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD POOL THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT SHOULD PUSH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND
GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT THE SURFACE WINDS
MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
SUSTAINED WINDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THIS FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
WRF AND NMM EVEN SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATES. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE PRESENT AND DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER LESS THAN 3000 FEET
AM TRENDING AWAY FROM INSERTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY
MID MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY BY LATE DAY. THIS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATE DAY TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BASED ON I310 AND
I315 ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND 12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS. GIVEN SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE DAY AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z FRIDAY
WILL TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WHILE FURTHER NORTH HAVE KEPT HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE WARMER 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012
THURSDAY NIGHT:
NOT THAT IMPRESSED FOR PROSPECTS OF CONVECTION THURSDAY EVENING. SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE 700 HPA BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW THAT THERE
MAY BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS, HOWEVER, THE OVERALL PROFILE IS FAIRLY
DRY AND CAPPED. WENT AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME SILENT POPS ACROSS MY NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT DISCOUNTED THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION WHICH CONTINUES TO SUFFER
FROM OVERALL POOR SYNOPTIC PERFORMANCE. THE 4 KM NAM & ARW/NMM CORES
AREN`T TOO CONVINCING EITHER.
FRIDAY:
THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DOWNSTREAM OF A SLOWLY
PROPAGATING 500 HPA TROUGH FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES WARM TO 33 DEG
C @ 850 HPA AND 15 DEG C & 700 HPA WITH A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE. HAVE
WARMED TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S DEG F ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS VERY WARM WITH 102 DEG
F FOR DODGE CITY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO THE TREND UPWARD BUT NOT YET
BITE ON THE EXTREME. THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION EAST OF THE DRYLINE
FRIDAY EVENING BUT WITH SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES AT 700 HPA, WILL NOT
GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT GIVEN THE VERY STOUT EML. ECMWF SHOWS ABOUT 2500
J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT
FOR SEVERE IN LATER FORECASTS.
SATURDAY:
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WEST
THAN COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
STRONG EML FORECAST BY THE MODEL. WILL NOT GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT POPS
IN THE MEANTIME. NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE MAIN 250 HPA JET
AXIS IS STILL PRETTY FAR WEST. WILL CONTINUE HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE
GRIDS WITH MID TO UPPER 90S DEG F EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS ARE BETTER SUNDAY AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA TRAVERSES ACROSS NW KANSAS. CAA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH AND LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD POOLS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAKENING
OF THE EML. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG AND EASTWARD MIXING DRYLINE. THE
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
UL FLOW FLATTENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONAL YET ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SW KANSAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
NEXT WEEK AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A MCS PATTERN. DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE
COULD BE AN ISSUE THOUGH. HAVE GONE WITH A CLEANED UP VERSION OF ALLBLEND
POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AND GUST BRIEFLY INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE. AFTER 09Z, EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE TAF AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 12
TO 13 KNOTS. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ARE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE
150-200 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE, SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 97 70 97 / 10 10 10 20
GCK 60 96 68 95 / 10 10 10 20
EHA 59 96 66 95 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 62 100 68 96 / 10 10 10 20
HYS 59 86 69 97 / 10 20 20 10
P28 67 97 72 97 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1240 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION TAFS AND DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012
NAM, RAP, AND HRRR WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED UNDER +14C TO +16C 700MB TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT APPEARS TO SERVE AS A CAP ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WERE BETTER LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. IN ADDITION THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE
NAM EVEN SUGGESTS SOME COOLING OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVEL AFTER
21Z ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES, BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND CAPES EARLY TONIGHT GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. ALSO BASED ON 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50
KNOTS ALONG WITH 1000-2000 J/KG THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE. MAIN HAZARD STILL
APPEARS TO BE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.
FURTHER WEST...THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST EARLY TONIGHT BUT STAY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD POOL THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT SHOULD PUSH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND
GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT THE SURFACE WINDS
MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
SUSTAINED WINDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THIS FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
WRF AND NMM EVEN SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATES. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE PRESENT AND DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER LESS THAN 3000 FEET
AM TRENDING AWAY FROM INSERTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY
MID MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY BY LATE DAY. THIS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATE DAY TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BASED ON I310 AND
I315 ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND 12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS. GIVEN SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE DAY AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z FRIDAY
WILL TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WHILE FURTHER NORTH HAVE KEPT HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE WARMER 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012
THURSDAY NIGHT:
NOT THAT IMPRESSED FOR PROSPECTS OF CONVECTION THURSDAY EVENING. SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE 700 HPA BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW THAT THERE
MAY BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS, HOWEVER, THE OVERALL PROFILE IS FAIRLY
DRY AND CAPPED. WENT AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME SILENT POPS ACROSS MY NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT DISCOUNTED THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION WHICH CONTINUES TO SUFFER
FROM OVERALL POOR SYNOPTIC PERFORMANCE. THE 4 KM NAM & ARW/NMM CORES
AREN`T TOO CONVINCING EITHER.
FRIDAY:
THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DOWNSTREAM OF A SLOWLY
PROPAGATING 500 HPA TROUGH FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES WARM TO 33 DEG
C @ 850 HPA AND 15 DEG C & 700 HPA WITH A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE. HAVE
WARMED TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S DEG F ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS VERY WARM WITH 102 DEG
F FOR DODGE CITY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO THE TREND UPWARD BUT NOT YET
BITE ON THE EXTREME. THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION EAST OF THE DRYLINE
FRIDAY EVENING BUT WITH SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES AT 700 HPA, WILL NOT
GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT GIVEN THE VERY STOUT EML. ECMWF SHOWS ABOUT 2500
J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT
FOR SEVERE IN LATER FORECASTS.
SATURDAY:
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WEST
THAN COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
STRONG EML FORECAST BY THE MODEL. WILL NOT GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT POPS
IN THE MEANTIME. NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE MAIN 250 HPA JET
AXIS IS STILL PRETTY FAR WEST. WILL CONTINUE HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE
GRIDS WITH MID TO UPPER 90S DEG F EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS ARE BETTER SUNDAY AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA TRAVERSES ACROSS NW KANSAS. CAA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH AND LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD POOLS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAKENING
OF THE EML. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG AND EASTWARD MIXING DRYLINE. THE
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
UL FLOW FLATTENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONAL YET ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SW KANSAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
NEXT WEEK AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A MCS PATTERN. DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE
COULD BE AN ISSUE THOUGH. HAVE GONE WITH A CLEANED UP VERSION OF ALLBLEND
POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AND GUST BRIEFLY INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE. AFTER 09Z, EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE TAF AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING, WINDS WILL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 12 TO 3
KNOTS. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ARE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE
150-200 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE, SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 97 70 97 / 10 10 10 20
GCK 60 96 68 95 / 10 10 10 20
EHA 59 96 66 95 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 62 100 68 96 / 10 10 10 20
HYS 59 86 69 97 / 10 20 20 10
P28 67 97 72 97 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1122 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT HAS STALLED OVER WESTERN KANSAS...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVER OUR CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z. CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG AND NORTH OF
STALLED FRONT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR EARLIER THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER THIS IS
REMOVED FROM LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTH. VERY STRONG SHEAR IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING THE FURTHER
NORTH IN THE CWA WHERE TD VALUES IN THE 30-40F RANGE HAVE ADVECTED
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN
SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. LATER TONIGHT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COULD COMBINE WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO BRING ADDITIONAL SEVERE
CHANCES. SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AFTER 06Z...WITH COVERAGE DECREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...PV ANOMALY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND DEEP LAYER DIV Q FIELDS
INDICATE FAIRLY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA. STILL HAVE A FEW TIMING CONCERNS THOUGH...AND THINK HOLDING
ONTO SOME SMALL POPS WARRANTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...AS DIFFERENTIAL TEMP
ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW SFC BASED
INSTABILITY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LESS THAN H5 AT MANY LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA...THINKING ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE STRONGLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND THINK OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ONCE AGAIN WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL WAA DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO H3 JET STREAK LIFTING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEEMS LIKE RECENT SUITE OF MODELS NOT ALL
THAT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT BREAKING OUT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...BUT
GIVEN STRONG AND PERSISTENT WAA/ISENTROPIC FORCING STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ABOVE THE SFC...AND SMALL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
IN AREA OF NEGATIVE THETA E LAPSE RATES...THINK THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THERE DESPITE CURRENT MODEL QPF OUTPUT.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND WILL NOT ONLY PLAY A BIG ROLE ON POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...IT WILL ALSO HAVE A LARGE ROLE IN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT WITH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY. SREF PLUME DATA INDICATING NEARLY A 20 DEGREE
SPREAD IN TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH ABOUT EQUAL CLUSTERING ON
EITHER SIDE...MAINLY ON FRIDAY. PLAN ON KEEPING NEAR MEAN VALUES FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MUCH MORE AGREEMENT ON VERY WARM TEMPS ON
SATURDAY AND HAVE WARMED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.
GIVEN EXPECTED PRESSURE FALL PATTERN AROUND AREA AND LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOMING MAXIMIZED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A NORTHERN MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...WITH BULK OF CWA REMAINING CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE DAY.
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAA PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHARPLY INCREASING CINH PROFILES AND ADVECTING MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS POINT...BUT SOUNDINGS LOOK LIKE ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING LOOK TO BE
VERY SHALLOW/DRIZZLE TYPE PROCESSES AND DO NOT PLAN ON GOING ALONG
WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. APPEARS TO BE LOTS OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG/NORTH OF
FRONT...BUT CINH LOOKS VERY STRONG AND GIVEN RIDGING ALOFT DO NOT
THINK THIS WILL BE OVERCOME.
ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS
BEHIND DRYLINE IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHERE DEEP MIXED LAYER SHOULD
TAP INTO STRONG FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S...WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 50 KTS AND MIXED TDS SUGGESTING A RAPID DROP OFF IN
DEWPOINTS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. IT IS A BIT TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS POINT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANT WINDS IS INCREASING. OTHERWISE...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH ANY
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG DRYLINE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP MIXING AND BULK OF PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT DRYLINE TO MIX EASTWARD WITH BULK OF CWA
IN DRY SECTOR. ENOUGH SPREAD EXISTS TO WARRANT A MORE BROAD BRUSHED
APPROACH TO CHANCES ATTM THOUGH AND WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG/SEVERE HIGH BASED STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE EXTENDED (SAT NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TROUGH/AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. WHILE 06Z GEFS
DATA SHOWS A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PATTERN WITH LARGE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...MODEL SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES DURING THE LATER HALF AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY WITH SMALL SCALE FEATURES. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH LIGHT EASTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW AND
SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH ZONAL
FLOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ASIDE FROM TIMING WITH FROPA ON SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY...LOOKS LIKE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE BELOW VFR BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR NEAR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM. THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT BY SUNRISE. BROKEN TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2012
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
POSSIBLE...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AND
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...FS
FIRE WEATHER...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
142 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL AND ERN CWA AS WINDS
WERE ALREADY GREATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A CORE OF 40-50KT
925MB WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA AROUND 18Z.
EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 45KTS TO BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL WATCHING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MI. WILL BE
EXAMINING POPS/WX MORE CLOSELY FOR UPDATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE NE CONUS/SE CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF DEEP UPR TROF IN THE
ROCKIES. UNDER THE SW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES...A
SHRTWV/SFC LO LIFTING NEWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG WITH UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF
SUPPORTING 100KT H3 JET MAX HAS CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF SHRA/TS IN MN
MAINLY WITHIN AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR ON THE COLD SIDE OF SFC FNT OVER
WRN LK SUP THAT IS ATTENDANT TO LK WINNIPEG LO. A FEW -SHRA/A LTG
STRIKE OF TWO ARE JUST W OF IWD NEAR THE SFC COLD FNT LOCATION NOT
FAR FM ASHLAND IN NW WI. TO THE E OVER MOST OF THE CWA...BONE DRY
AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB /PWAT 0.25 INCH WITH KINX -53/ IS
BRINGING A TRANQUIL OVERNGT WITH JUST SOME SCT HI CLDS. THE APRCH OF
ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE WRN TROF IS CAUSING MORE
SHRA/TS TO BREAK OUT IN NEBRASKA UNDER EXPANDING AREA OF COOLING CLD
TOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX LATE THIS
EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WRN TROF
AND CAUSING EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/TS AROUND NEBRASKA.
TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SCT -SHRA NOW ALONG THE COLD FNT WL
DRIFT INTO THE WRN ZNS EARLY THIS MRNG PER SLOWLY VEERING H85 FLOW
TO SW AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM...THE BULK OF THE RA NOW IN MN WL STAY
W AND DIMINISH AS POCKET OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF JET MAX IN NW ONTARIO
LIFTS TO THE NE. BUT WITH DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE PER THE 00Z
GRB RAOB AND HI AMPLITUDE RDG JUST TO THE E...THESE -SHRA SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE W AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FNT STALLS WITH BACKING OF
THE UPR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MOTION OF ROCKIES SHRTWV INTO THE
PLAINS. THEN MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE A GUSTY S WIND AS H85 WINDS
INCRS TO 40-45KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV/DVLPG SFC LO IN THE
PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO LIFT NEWD TO NOT FAR FM DLH BY 00Z. CONFINED
CHC POPS TO THE W. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AS HI TEMPS
SURGE INTO THE 80S AT SOME PLACES AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE
OF MAINLY LK MI. AFT COORDINATION WITH GRB...OPTED TO ISSUE WIND
ADVY FOR MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA AWAY FM THE MORE STABILIZED
KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING...EXCEPTIONAL
INTENSITY OF THE APRCHG DISTURBANCE/SFC LO PRES...AND GFS FCST
H85/H925 S WINDS UP TO 60KTS/50KTS. GFS BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE
WINDS OF 35-40 KTS WL BE PRESENT IN MIXED LYR AT IWD. ALTHOUGH THE
ARRIVAL OF HIER H95-9 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THIS STRENGTHENING SLY
FLOW WL KEEP MIN RH FM FALLING TO CRITICAL LVLS...THE GUSTY S WINDS
WL STILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE PERSONNEL FIGHTING THE SENEY
FIRE/OTHER WILDFIRES. MORE NMRS SHRA/TS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LO
MOVING NEAR DLH MAY ARRIVE OVER THE FAR W IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME.
TNGT...AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC LO MOVE QUICKLY NE INTO
ONTARIO...EXPECT A STRONG COLD FROPA ACRS THE CWA. VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS THAT IMPACT MAINLY THE W HALF INCLUDE VIGOROUS DPVA/UPR
DVGC IN THE LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 130KT H3 JET MAX. ALTHOUGH FCST
SDNGS DO NOT SHOW PARTICULARLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...INVERTED
V LOOK TO THE T/TD PROFILE IN THE SUB H8-85 LYR FOR IWD AT 00Z WITH
EARLY EVNG FROPA THERE MAXIMIZING LLVL DESTABLIZATION AT PEAK
HEATING TIME SUG THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL/SLOWLY VEERING POWERFUL FLOW THAT INCLUDES H7/H85
WINDS AS HI AS 60-70KTS/50-60KTS EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MID LVL DRY AIR TO MAXIMIZE DCAPE. DESPITE THE STRONG WIND
FIELDS...INVERTED V LLVL T/TD PROFILE AND LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE TORNADO THREAT. SINCE THE MID LVL LAPSE RATES
ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND LACK OF DRY MID LVL AIR RESULTS IN WBZ HGT
IN THE 12.5-13.0K RANGE...THE LARGE HAIL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TOO
HI. SINCE THE SHARPER DYNAMICS WL EXIT TO THE NE AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING WL BEGIN TO HAVE AN IMPACT...EXPECT THE SHRA/TS CHCS AND
SEVERE WX THREAT TO WANE AS THE FRONT MARCHES FARTHER E. VIGOROUS
DRY SLOTTING/ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WL CAUSE DIMINISHING POPS...BUT LINGERING LLVL MSTR MAY STILL
CAUSE A FEW -SHRA IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE W THRU THE NGT.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...CONCERNED W WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FROPA WL REACH ADVY CRITERIA OVER MAINLY THE EXPOSED
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AFT 06Z WITH W H925 WINDS INCRSG TO 40-50
KTS/VIGOROUS CAD THAT WL MAINTAIN STEEPER LLVL LAPSE RATES DESPITE
SOME STABILIZATION OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF LK SUP/AND
APRCH OF PRES RISE MAX OF 10-15MB/6HRS THAT WL ACCENTUATE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT NEARLY IN LINE WITH GRADIENT FLOW.
FRI...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND APRCH OF UPR RDG...EXPECT A
DRY DAY. GUSTY WINDS WL PERSIST WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING EVEN
THOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO SLOWLY SLACKEN. WITH H85 TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 8-10C RANGE...MIXING TO H75 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS
YIELD HI TEMPS IN THE 75-80 RANGE WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW AWAY FM LK
MODERATION IN LLVL WNW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 40S. WENT WITH THE DRIER NON-NAM SOLUTION FOR
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AS THE 24/00Z NAM WAS VERY OPTIMISTIC WITH ITS
PRINTOUT OF PRECIP.
OTHER CHANGES INCLUDED A WARMING OF TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
SATURDAY /COOLEST N NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/...WITH A GENERALLY SLOWER
ONSET OF PRECIP. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY ALONG THE WI BORDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD...THANKS TO THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL POP BACK
INTO THE 70S WEST SUNDAY. WHILE WE DO HAVE A FCST FOR HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
BE THROUGH 18Z...BEFORE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVES N ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END W TO E MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PUSHES ACROSS AND EXITS E OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE ARE SILL SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...THEY ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD THAN 24 HRS AGO. THE SFC TROUGH WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TIED TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO KIWD AND KCMX LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY INTO KSAW OVERNIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM WINDS
WILL GUST TO AS MUCH AS 35 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
EVEN OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING EVEN HIGHER GUSTS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO THE
SURFACE. ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY. GUSTS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW/AT KCMX/ FRIDAY MORNING COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS...AND SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
ALTHOUGH S WINDS AT SOME OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS LIKE STANNARD ROCK
WILL PUSH 30-35 KTS INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP LO PRES/STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU WESTERN LK SUP THIS EVENING...HIGHER OVER
WATER STABILITY WILL LIMIT THE MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS TO NEAR
THE SURFACE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY TONIGHT AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO
THE W...EXPECT THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
MUCH OF THE STRONGER FLOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...OPTED TO
ISSUE GALE WATCH LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING FOR THE AREA BETWEEN
ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW WHERE TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE THE EXPECTED
WSW FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS ONTARIO
AND LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL FILL
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
004>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LSZ263-
264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TITUS
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MCB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1152 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL AND ERN CWA AS WINDS
WERE ALREADY GREATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A CORE OF 40-50KT
925MB WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA AROUND 18Z.
EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 45KTS TO BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL WATCHING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MI. WILL BE
EXAMINING POPS/WX MORE CLOSELY FOR UPDATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE NE CONUS/SE CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF DEEP UPR TROF IN THE
ROCKIES. UNDER THE SW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES...A
SHRTWV/SFC LO LIFTING NEWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG WITH UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF
SUPPORTING 100KT H3 JET MAX HAS CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF SHRA/TS IN MN
MAINLY WITHIN AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR ON THE COLD SIDE OF SFC FNT OVER
WRN LK SUP THAT IS ATTENDANT TO LK WINNIPEG LO. A FEW -SHRA/A LTG
STRIKE OF TWO ARE JUST W OF IWD NEAR THE SFC COLD FNT LOCATION NOT
FAR FM ASHLAND IN NW WI. TO THE E OVER MOST OF THE CWA...BONE DRY
AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB /PWAT 0.25 INCH WITH KINX -53/ IS
BRINGING A TRANQUIL OVERNGT WITH JUST SOME SCT HI CLDS. THE APRCH OF
ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE WRN TROF IS CAUSING MORE
SHRA/TS TO BREAK OUT IN NEBRASKA UNDER EXPANDING AREA OF COOLING CLD
TOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX LATE THIS
EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WRN TROF
AND CAUSING EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/TS AROUND NEBRASKA.
TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SCT -SHRA NOW ALONG THE COLD FNT WL
DRIFT INTO THE WRN ZNS EARLY THIS MRNG PER SLOWLY VEERING H85 FLOW
TO SW AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM...THE BULK OF THE RA NOW IN MN WL STAY
W AND DIMINISH AS POCKET OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF JET MAX IN NW ONTARIO
LIFTS TO THE NE. BUT WITH DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE PER THE 00Z
GRB RAOB AND HI AMPLITUDE RDG JUST TO THE E...THESE -SHRA SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE W AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FNT STALLS WITH BACKING OF
THE UPR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MOTION OF ROCKIES SHRTWV INTO THE
PLAINS. THEN MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE A GUSTY S WIND AS H85 WINDS
INCRS TO 40-45KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV/DVLPG SFC LO IN THE
PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO LIFT NEWD TO NOT FAR FM DLH BY 00Z. CONFINED
CHC POPS TO THE W. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AS HI TEMPS
SURGE INTO THE 80S AT SOME PLACES AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE
OF MAINLY LK MI. AFT COORDINATION WITH GRB...OPTED TO ISSUE WIND
ADVY FOR MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA AWAY FM THE MORE STABILIZED
KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING...EXCEPTIONAL
INTENSITY OF THE APRCHG DISTURBANCE/SFC LO PRES...AND GFS FCST
H85/H925 S WINDS UP TO 60KTS/50KTS. GFS BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE
WINDS OF 35-40 KTS WL BE PRESENT IN MIXED LYR AT IWD. ALTHOUGH THE
ARRIVAL OF HIER H95-9 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THIS STRENGTHENING SLY
FLOW WL KEEP MIN RH FM FALLING TO CRITICAL LVLS...THE GUSTY S WINDS
WL STILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE PERSONNEL FIGHTING THE SENEY
FIRE/OTHER WILDFIRES. MORE NMRS SHRA/TS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LO
MOVING NEAR DLH MAY ARRIVE OVER THE FAR W IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME.
TNGT...AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC LO MOVE QUICKLY NE INTO
ONTARIO...EXPECT A STRONG COLD FROPA ACRS THE CWA. VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS THAT IMPACT MAINLY THE W HALF INCLUDE VIGOROUS DPVA/UPR
DVGC IN THE LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 130KT H3 JET MAX. ALTHOUGH FCST
SDNGS DO NOT SHOW PARTICULARLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...INVERTED
V LOOK TO THE T/TD PROFILE IN THE SUB H8-85 LYR FOR IWD AT 00Z WITH
EARLY EVNG FROPA THERE MAXIMIZING LLVL DESTABLIZATION AT PEAK
HEATING TIME SUG THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL/SLOWLY VEERING POWERFUL FLOW THAT INCLUDES H7/H85
WINDS AS HI AS 60-70KTS/50-60KTS EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MID LVL DRY AIR TO MAXIMIZE DCAPE. DESPITE THE STRONG WIND
FIELDS...INVERTED V LLVL T/TD PROFILE AND LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE TORNADO THREAT. SINCE THE MID LVL LAPSE RATES
ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND LACK OF DRY MID LVL AIR RESULTS IN WBZ HGT
IN THE 12.5-13.0K RANGE...THE LARGE HAIL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TOO
HI. SINCE THE SHARPER DYNAMICS WL EXIT TO THE NE AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING WL BEGIN TO HAVE AN IMPACT...EXPECT THE SHRA/TS CHCS AND
SEVERE WX THREAT TO WANE AS THE FRONT MARCHES FARTHER E. VIGOROUS
DRY SLOTTING/ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WL CAUSE DIMINISHING POPS...BUT LINGERING LLVL MSTR MAY STILL
CAUSE A FEW -SHRA IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE W THRU THE NGT.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...CONCERNED W WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FROPA WL REACH ADVY CRITERIA OVER MAINLY THE EXPOSED
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AFT 06Z WITH W H925 WINDS INCRSG TO 40-50
KTS/VIGOROUS CAD THAT WL MAINTAIN STEEPER LLVL LAPSE RATES DESPITE
SOME STABILIZATION OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF LK SUP/AND
APRCH OF PRES RISE MAX OF 10-15MB/6HRS THAT WL ACCENTUATE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT NEARLY IN LINE WITH GRADIENT FLOW.
FRI...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND APRCH OF UPR RDG...EXPECT A
DRY DAY. GUSTY WINDS WL PERSIST WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING EVEN
THOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO SLOWLY SLACKEN. WITH H85 TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 8-10C RANGE...MIXING TO H75 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS
YIELD HI TEMPS IN THE 75-80 RANGE WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW AWAY FM LK
MODERATION IN LLVL WNW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 40S. WENT WITH THE DRIER NON-NAM SOLUTION FOR
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AS THE 24/00Z NAM WAS VERY OPTIMISTIC WITH ITS
PRINTOUT OF PRECIP.
OTHER CHANGES INCLUDED A WARMING OF TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
SATURDAY /COOLEST N NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/...WITH A GENERALLY SLOWER
ONSET OF PRECIP. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY ALONG THE WI BORDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD...THANKS TO THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL POP BACK
INTO THE 70S WEST SUNDAY. WHILE WE DO HAVE A FCST FOR HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
BE THROUGH 18Z...BEFORE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVES N ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END W TO E MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PUSHES ACROSS AND EXITS E OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE ARE SILL SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...THEY ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD THAN 24 HRS AGO. THE SFC TROUGH WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
STRONG WINDS AND LLWS REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. SSW WINDS
OF 50-55KTS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP ON THE MARQUETTE 88D RADAR...WHICH
SHOULD ONLY TEMPORARILY DIMINISH ABOUT 5KTS OR SO BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 60KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE NEARING COLD
FRONT TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR IWD AND CMX EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO SAW AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONVECTION...BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT...IF NOT AT
THE SURFACE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
ALTHOUGH S WINDS AT SOME OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS LIKE STANNARD ROCK
WILL PUSH 30-35 KTS INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP LO PRES/STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU WESTERN LK SUP THIS EVENING...HIGHER OVER
WATER STABILITY WILL LIMIT THE MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS TO NEAR
THE SURFACE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY TONIGHT AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO
THE W...EXPECT THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
MUCH OF THE STRONGER FLOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...OPTED TO
ISSUE GALE WATCH LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING FOR THE AREA BETWEEN
ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW WHERE TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE THE EXPECTED
WSW FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS ONTARIO
AND LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL FILL
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
004>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LSZ263-
264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TITUS
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
621 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE NE CONUS/SE CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF DEEP UPR TROF IN THE
ROCKIES. UNDER THE SW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES...A
SHRTWV/SFC LO LIFTING NEWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG WITH UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF
SUPPORTING 100KT H3 JET MAX HAS CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF SHRA/TS IN MN
MAINLY WITHIN AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR ON THE COLD SIDE OF SFC FNT OVER
WRN LK SUP THAT IS ATTENDANT TO LK WINNIPEG LO. A FEW -SHRA/A LTG
STRIKE OF TWO ARE JUST W OF IWD NEAR THE SFC COLD FNT LOCATION NOT
FAR FM ASHLAND IN NW WI. TO THE E OVER MOST OF THE CWA...BONE DRY
AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB /PWAT 0.25 INCH WITH KINX -53/ IS
BRINGING A TRANQUIL OVERNGT WITH JUST SOME SCT HI CLDS. THE APRCH OF
ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE WRN TROF IS CAUSING MORE
SHRA/TS TO BREAK OUT IN NEBRASKA UNDER EXPANDING AREA OF COOLING CLD
TOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX LATE THIS
EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WRN TROF
AND CAUSING EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/TS AROUND NEBRASKA.
TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SCT -SHRA NOW ALONG THE COLD FNT WL
DRIFT INTO THE WRN ZNS EARLY THIS MRNG PER SLOWLY VEERING H85 FLOW
TO SW AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM...THE BULK OF THE RA NOW IN MN WL STAY
W AND DIMINISH AS POCKET OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF JET MAX IN NW ONTARIO
LIFTS TO THE NE. BUT WITH DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE PER THE 00Z
GRB RAOB AND HI AMPLITUDE RDG JUST TO THE E...THESE -SHRA SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE W AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FNT STALLS WITH BACKING OF
THE UPR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MOTION OF ROCKIES SHRTWV INTO THE
PLAINS. THEN MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE A GUSTY S WIND AS H85 WINDS
INCRS TO 40-45KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV/DVLPG SFC LO IN THE
PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO LIFT NEWD TO NOT FAR FM DLH BY 00Z. CONFINED
CHC POPS TO THE W. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AS HI TEMPS
SURGE INTO THE 80S AT SOME PLACES AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE
OF MAINLY LK MI. AFT COORDINATION WITH GRB...OPTED TO ISSUE WIND
ADVY FOR MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA AWAY FM THE MORE STABILIZED
KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING...EXCEPTIONAL
INTENSITY OF THE APRCHG DISTURBANCE/SFC LO PRES...AND GFS FCST
H85/H925 S WINDS UP TO 60KTS/50KTS. GFS BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE
WINDS OF 35-40 KTS WL BE PRESENT IN MIXED LYR AT IWD. ALTHOUGH THE
ARRIVAL OF HIER H95-9 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THIS STRENGTHENING SLY
FLOW WL KEEP MIN RH FM FALLING TO CRITICAL LVLS...THE GUSTY S WINDS
WL STILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE PERSONNEL FIGHTING THE SENEY
FIRE/OTHER WILDFIRES. MORE NMRS SHRA/TS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LO
MOVING NEAR DLH MAY ARRIVE OVER THE FAR W IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME.
TNGT...AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC LO MOVE QUICKLY NE INTO
ONTARIO...EXPECT A STRONG COLD FROPA ACRS THE CWA. VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS THAT IMPACT MAINLY THE W HALF INCLUDE VIGOROUS DPVA/UPR
DVGC IN THE LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 130KT H3 JET MAX. ALTHOUGH FCST
SDNGS DO NOT SHOW PARTICULARLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...INVERTED
V LOOK TO THE T/TD PROFILE IN THE SUB H8-85 LYR FOR IWD AT 00Z WITH
EARLY EVNG FROPA THERE MAXIMIZING LLVL DESTABLIZATION AT PEAK
HEATING TIME SUG THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL/SLOWLY VEERING POWERFUL FLOW THAT INCLUDES H7/H85
WINDS AS HI AS 60-70KTS/50-60KTS EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MID LVL DRY AIR TO MAXIMIZE DCAPE. DESPITE THE STRONG WIND
FIELDS...INVERTED V LLVL T/TD PROFILE AND LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE TORNADO THREAT. SINCE THE MID LVL LAPSE RATES
ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND LACK OF DRY MID LVL AIR RESULTS IN WBZ HGT
IN THE 12.5-13.0K RANGE...THE LARGE HAIL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TOO
HI. SINCE THE SHARPER DYNAMICS WL EXIT TO THE NE AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING WL BEGIN TO HAVE AN IMPACT...EXPECT THE SHRA/TS CHCS AND
SEVERE WX THREAT TO WANE AS THE FRONT MARCHES FARTHER E. VIGOROUS
DRY SLOTTING/ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WL CAUSE DIMINISHING POPS...BUT LINGERING LLVL MSTR MAY STILL
CAUSE A FEW -SHRA IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE W THRU THE NGT.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...CONCERNED W WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FROPA WL REACH ADVY CRITERIA OVER MAINLY THE EXPOSED
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AFT 06Z WITH W H925 WINDS INCRSG TO 40-50
KTS/VIGOROUS CAD THAT WL MAINTAIN STEEPER LLVL LAPSE RATES DESPITE
SOME STABILIZATION OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF LK SUP/AND
APRCH OF PRES RISE MAX OF 10-15MB/6HRS THAT WL ACCENTUATE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT NEARLY IN LINE WITH GRADIENT FLOW.
FRI...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND APRCH OF UPR RDG...EXPECT A
DRY DAY. GUSTY WINDS WL PERSIST WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING EVEN
THOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO SLOWLY SLACKEN. WITH H85 TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 8-10C RANGE...MIXING TO H75 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS
YIELD HI TEMPS IN THE 75-80 RANGE WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW AWAY FM LK
MODERATION IN LLVL WNW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 40S. WENT WITH THE DRIER NON-NAM SOLUTION FOR
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AS THE 24/00Z NAM WAS VERY OPTIMISTIC WITH ITS
PRINTOUT OF PRECIP.
OTHER CHANGES INCLUDED A WARMING OF TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
SATURDAY /COOLEST N NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/...WITH A GENERALLY SLOWER
ONSET OF PRECIP. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY ALONG THE WI BORDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD...THANKS TO THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL POP BACK
INTO THE 70S WEST SUNDAY. WHILE WE DO HAVE A FCST FOR HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
BE THROUGH 18Z...BEFORE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVES N ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END W TO E MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW
PUSHES ACROSS AND EXITS E OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE ARE SILL SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...THEY ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD THAN 24 HRS AGO. THE SFC TROUGH WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
STRONG WINDS AND LLWS REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. SSW WINDS
OF 50-55KTS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP ON THE MARQUETTE 88D RADAR...WHICH
SHOULD ONLY TEMPORARILY DIMINISH ABOUT 5KTS OR SO BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 60KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE NEARING COLD
FRONT TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR IWD AND CMX EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO SAW AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONVECTION...BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT...IF NOT AT
THE SURFACE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
ALTHOUGH S WINDS AT SOME OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS LIKE STANNARD ROCK
WILL PUSH 30-35 KTS INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP LO PRES/STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU WESTERN LK SUP THIS EVENING...HIGHER OVER
WATER STABILITY WILL LIMIT THE MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS TO NEAR
THE SURFACE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY TONIGHT AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO
THE W...EXPECT THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
MUCH OF THE STRONGER FLOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...OPTED TO
ISSUE GALE WATCH LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING FOR THE AREA BETWEEN
ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW WHERE TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE THE EXPECTED
WSW FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS ONTARIO
AND LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL FILL
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LSZ263-
264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
602 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE NE CONUS/SE CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF DEEP UPR TROF IN THE
ROCKIES. UNDER THE SW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES...A
SHRTWV/SFC LO LIFTING NEWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG WITH UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF
SUPPORTING 100KT H3 JET MAX HAS CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF SHRA/TS IN MN
MAINLY WITHIN AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR ON THE COLD SIDE OF SFC FNT OVER
WRN LK SUP THAT IS ATTENDANT TO LK WINNIPEG LO. A FEW -SHRA/A LTG
STRIKE OF TWO ARE JUST W OF IWD NEAR THE SFC COLD FNT LOCATION NOT
FAR FM ASHLAND IN NW WI. TO THE E OVER MOST OF THE CWA...BONE DRY
AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB /PWAT 0.25 INCH WITH KINX -53/ IS
BRINGING A TRANQUIL OVERNGT WITH JUST SOME SCT HI CLDS. THE APRCH OF
ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE WRN TROF IS CAUSING MORE
SHRA/TS TO BREAK OUT IN NEBRASKA UNDER EXPANDING AREA OF COOLING CLD
TOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX LATE THIS
EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WRN TROF
AND CAUSING EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/TS AROUND NEBRASKA.
TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SCT -SHRA NOW ALONG THE COLD FNT WL
DRIFT INTO THE WRN ZNS EARLY THIS MRNG PER SLOWLY VEERING H85 FLOW
TO SW AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM...THE BULK OF THE RA NOW IN MN WL STAY
W AND DIMINISH AS POCKET OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF JET MAX IN NW ONTARIO
LIFTS TO THE NE. BUT WITH DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE PER THE 00Z
GRB RAOB AND HI AMPLITUDE RDG JUST TO THE E...THESE -SHRA SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE W AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FNT STALLS WITH BACKING OF
THE UPR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MOTION OF ROCKIES SHRTWV INTO THE
PLAINS. THEN MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE A GUSTY S WIND AS H85 WINDS
INCRS TO 40-45KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV/DVLPG SFC LO IN THE
PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO LIFT NEWD TO NOT FAR FM DLH BY 00Z. CONFINED
CHC POPS TO THE W. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AS HI TEMPS
SURGE INTO THE 80S AT SOME PLACES AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE
OF MAINLY LK MI. AFT COORDINATION WITH GRB...OPTED TO ISSUE WIND
ADVY FOR MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA AWAY FM THE MORE STABILIZED
KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING...EXCEPTIONAL
INTENSITY OF THE APRCHG DISTURBANCE/SFC LO PRES...AND GFS FCST
H85/H925 S WINDS UP TO 60KTS/50KTS. GFS BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE
WINDS OF 35-40 KTS WL BE PRESENT IN MIXED LYR AT IWD. ALTHOUGH THE
ARRIVAL OF HIER H95-9 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THIS STRENGTHENING SLY
FLOW WL KEEP MIN RH FM FALLING TO CRITICAL LVLS...THE GUSTY S WINDS
WL STILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE PERSONNEL FIGHTING THE SENEY
FIRE/OTHER WILDFIRES. MORE NMRS SHRA/TS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LO
MOVING NEAR DLH MAY ARRIVE OVER THE FAR W IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME.
TNGT...AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC LO MOVE QUICKLY NE INTO
ONTARIO...EXPECT A STRONG COLD FROPA ACRS THE CWA. VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS THAT IMPACT MAINLY THE W HALF INCLUDE VIGOROUS DPVA/UPR
DVGC IN THE LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 130KT H3 JET MAX. ALTHOUGH FCST
SDNGS DO NOT SHOW PARTICULARLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...INVERTED
V LOOK TO THE T/TD PROFILE IN THE SUB H8-85 LYR FOR IWD AT 00Z WITH
EARLY EVNG FROPA THERE MAXIMIZING LLVL DESTABLIZATION AT PEAK
HEATING TIME SUG THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL/SLOWLY VEERING POWERFUL FLOW THAT INCLUDES H7/H85
WINDS AS HI AS 60-70KTS/50-60KTS EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MID LVL DRY AIR TO MAXIMIZE DCAPE. DESPITE THE STRONG WIND
FIELDS...INVERTED V LLVL T/TD PROFILE AND LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE TORNADO THREAT. SINCE THE MID LVL LAPSE RATES
ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND LACK OF DRY MID LVL AIR RESULTS IN WBZ HGT
IN THE 12.5-13.0K RANGE...THE LARGE HAIL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TOO
HI. SINCE THE SHARPER DYNAMICS WL EXIT TO THE NE AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING WL BEGIN TO HAVE AN IMPACT...EXPECT THE SHRA/TS CHCS AND
SEVERE WX THREAT TO WANE AS THE FRONT MARCHES FARTHER E. VIGOROUS
DRY SLOTTING/ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WL CAUSE DIMINISHING POPS...BUT LINGERING LLVL MSTR MAY STILL
CAUSE A FEW -SHRA IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE W THRU THE NGT.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...CONCERNED W WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FROPA WL REACH ADVY CRITERIA OVER MAINLY THE EXPOSED
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AFT 06Z WITH W H925 WINDS INCRSG TO 40-50
KTS/VIGOROUS CAD THAT WL MAINTAIN STEEPER LLVL LAPSE RATES DESPITE
SOME STABILIZATION OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF LK SUP/AND
APRCH OF PRES RISE MAX OF 10-15MB/6HRS THAT WL ACCENTUATE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT NEARLY IN LINE WITH GRADIENT FLOW.
FRI...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND APRCH OF UPR RDG...EXPECT A
DRY DAY. GUSTY WINDS WL PERSIST WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING EVEN
THOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO SLOWLY SLACKEN. WITH H85 TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 8-10C RANGE...MIXING TO H75 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS
YIELD HI TEMPS IN THE 75-80 RANGE WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW AWAY FM LK
MODERATION IN LLVL WNW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SETUP OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR...WHILE A FAIRLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING NE ACROSS AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA
THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS OVER NW WI
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE LOW MOVING NNE ACROSS WRN LK
SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING
OVER NW WI AND FAR WRN LK SUPERIOR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
THEN MOVE E AND NE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DURING
THE NIGHT.
WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND THE CYCLOGENESIS...FEEL THAT THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA
TOMORROW EVENING. THERE IS A VERY THIN CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE
CWA. CAPE FAIRLY SKINNY...NCAPE VALUES AROUND 0.1...SO DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
WIND APPEARS TO BE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STORMS. INVERTED V LOOK
TO THE SOUNDINGS OVER THE WEST AND DCAPE VALUES OF 600-800 J/KG.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT...APPROACHING 70-80KTS AT H700 AND
40-50KTS JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SFC...WILL BE
AIDED BY A POCKET OF DRY H700-500 AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
THIS...COMBINED WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NNE AT 65-70KTS ALL POINT
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN SHOWERS OCCUR. WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE LLVL WIND FIELD...COULD SEE SOME
LLVL BACKING OF THE WINDS AND PRODUCE SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER NW WI. BUT THE EXPECTED DRY LLVL AIR
HELPING PRODUCE AN INVERTED V AND LCL HEIGHTS TOWARDS 3-3.5KFT
SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS FAR N.
CURRENT THOUGHT IS BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE FROM
BARAGA/IRON COUNTIES AND WEST...BUT WITH THE STORM MOTIONS...COULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT MARQUETTE/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES BEFORE
HEADING OVER LK SUPERIOR. ADDED DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO THE GRIDS
AND MENTIONED IN THE HWO. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WHERE SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK...WITH HATCHED AREA JUST TO THE SW OF THE CWA.
AS THE LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NE...EXPECT BEST FORCING TO QUICKLY
DEPART OVERNIGHT AND PULL FORCING WITH IT. IN ADDITION...AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE CNTRL/ERN CWA...THE CAPPING BECOMES
STRONGER. WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOOSING FORCING AND MORE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/ERN CWA. 09Z SREF ALSO SHOWING
THIS DIMINISHING TREND IN THE 3HR CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROBS...AS
THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH TO THE NE OVER LK SUPERIOR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT GUSTY SE WINDS IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW/FRONT. BUMPED UP WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE KEWEENAW BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT...WITH THE
STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC /NAM SHOWING 60KTS AT 1.5KFT/. IN
ADDITION...GOOD ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVER THE WEST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW PUSHING NE. ONLY CONCERN FOR
GOING MORE THAN 30-35KTS AT THIS POINT IS AFFECT OF COOLER WATER
TEMPS...BUT THAT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRI...GUSTY WRLY WINDS...30-35KTS...IN THE MORNING BEHIND THE LOW.
DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND H700 CAP SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH
WEAK MID-LVL WAVE MOVING THROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND ML/MU
CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 100 JKG WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE/NO PCPN CHANCES.
LATEST NAM RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON PCPN AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH
REMOVING SLIGHT CHANCES. WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING
THE AFTN WITH EXPECTED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
MIXING TO H750 WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE CNTRL. WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS AND DEEPER MIXING INTO THE LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...EXPECT RH
VALUES TO FALL TO 30 PERCENT. FIRE WX CONCERNS MAINLY OVER THE
CNTRL...WHERE LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THURS NIGHT.
FRI NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM HIGH JUST N OF MN. SFC LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE CNTRL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A WARM FRONT N TOWARDS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT. COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
TOWARDS THE WI BORDER LATE.
CWA WILL BE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TO LK WINNIPEG UNTIL SUN NIGHT. STILL SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW SAT AFTN THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH NE ON SAT...AS IT
BATTLES THE HIGH THAT WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OVER ONTARIO. PCPN
CHANCES ON SAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW FAR N THE FRONT WILL PUSH.
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO NRN WI AND FINALLY INTO UPPER MI BY SUN AFTN. THIS WILL PUT THE
BEST WAA FOCUS OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT ELEVATED CAPES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...SO HAVE CAPPED
THUNDER TO CHANCES FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WITH THE CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE SMALL HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN.
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR LATE SUN AFTN AND INTO SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS DIVERGING WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW HEADING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS SHOWS THE LOW CONTINUING
NNE INTO SRN CANADA ON SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE PUSHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS UPPER MI ON MON. 00Z ECMWF ON THE OTHERHAND DISSIPATES THE
LOW OVER THE CWA AND THEN SLOWLY SLIDES IT EAST THROUGH TUES. AFTER
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD...OVERALL TREND LOOKS TO BE TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
DRIER/QUIET WEATHER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
STRONG WINDS AND LLWS REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. SSW WINDS
OF 50-55KTS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP ON THE MARQUETTE 88D RADAR...WHICH
SHOULD ONLY TEMPORARILY DIMINISH ABOUT 5KTS OR SO BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 60KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE NEARING COLD
FRONT TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR IWD AND CMX EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO SAW AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONVECTION...BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT...IF NOT AT
THE SURFACE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012
LOW PRESSURE OVER S MANITOBA WILL PUSH INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS AN ADDITIONAL LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO W
LS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE A NE TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. STRENGTHENING S WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH A STABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THE
STRONGEST WINDS...EXPECT THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE TALLER OBSERVING
PLATFORMS ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
ONTARIO SATURDAY...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS LS SATURDAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
TAKING HOLD. A LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FILL ACROSS MN
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LSZ263-
264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
505 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE NE CONUS/SE CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF DEEP UPR TROF IN THE
ROCKIES. UNDER THE SW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES...A
SHRTWV/SFC LO LIFTING NEWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG WITH UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF
SUPPORTING 100KT H3 JET MAX HAS CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF SHRA/TS IN MN
MAINLY WITHIN AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR ON THE COLD SIDE OF SFC FNT OVER
WRN LK SUP THAT IS ATTENDANT TO LK WINNIPEG LO. A FEW -SHRA/A LTG
STRIKE OF TWO ARE JUST W OF IWD NEAR THE SFC COLD FNT LOCATION NOT
FAR FM ASHLAND IN NW WI. TO THE E OVER MOST OF THE CWA...BONE DRY
AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB /PWAT 0.25 INCH WITH KINX -53/ IS
BRINGING A TRANQUIL OVERNGT WITH JUST SOME SCT HI CLDS. THE APRCH OF
ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE WRN TROF IS CAUSING MORE
SHRA/TS TO BREAK OUT IN NEBRASKA UNDER EXPANDING AREA OF COOLING CLD
TOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX LATE THIS
EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WRN TROF
AND CAUSING EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/TS AROUND NEBRASKA.
TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SCT -SHRA NOW ALONG THE COLD FNT WL
DRIFT INTO THE WRN ZNS EARLY THIS MRNG PER SLOWLY VEERING H85 FLOW
TO SW AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM...THE BULK OF THE RA NOW IN MN WL STAY
W AND DIMINISH AS POCKET OF UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF JET MAX IN NW ONTARIO
LIFTS TO THE NE. BUT WITH DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE PER THE 00Z
GRB RAOB AND HI AMPLITUDE RDG JUST TO THE E...THESE -SHRA SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE W AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FNT STALLS WITH BACKING OF
THE UPR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MOTION OF ROCKIES SHRTWV INTO THE
PLAINS. THEN MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE A GUSTY S WIND AS H85 WINDS
INCRS TO 40-45KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV/DVLPG SFC LO IN THE
PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO LIFT NEWD TO NOT FAR FM DLH BY 00Z. CONFINED
CHC POPS TO THE W. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AS HI TEMPS
SURGE INTO THE 80S AT SOME PLACES AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE
OF MAINLY LK MI. AFT COORDINATION WITH GRB...OPTED TO ISSUE WIND
ADVY FOR MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA AWAY FM THE MORE STABILIZED
KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING...EXCEPTIONAL
INTENSITY OF THE APRCHG DISTURBANCE/SFC LO PRES...AND GFS FCST
H85/H925 S WINDS UP TO 60KTS/50KTS. GFS BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE
WINDS OF 35-40 KTS WL BE PRESENT IN MIXED LYR AT IWD. ALTHOUGH THE
ARRIVAL OF HIER H95-9 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THIS STRENGTHENING SLY
FLOW WL KEEP MIN RH FM FALLING TO CRITICAL LVLS...THE GUSTY S WINDS
WL STILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE PERSONNEL FIGHTING THE SENEY
FIRE/OTHER WILDFIRES. MORE NMRS SHRA/TS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LO
MOVING NEAR DLH MAY ARRIVE OVER THE FAR W IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME.
TNGT...AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC LO MOVE QUICKLY NE INTO
ONTARIO...EXPECT A STRONG COLD FROPA ACRS THE CWA. VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS THAT IMPACT MAINLY THE W HALF INCLUDE VIGOROUS DPVA/UPR
DVGC IN THE LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 130KT H3 JET MAX. ALTHOUGH FCST
SDNGS DO NOT SHOW PARTICULARLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...INVERTED
V LOOK TO THE T/TD PROFILE IN THE SUB H8-85 LYR FOR IWD AT 00Z WITH
EARLY EVNG FROPA THERE MAXIMIZING LLVL DESTABLIZATION AT PEAK
HEATING TIME SUG THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL/SLOWLY VEERING POWERFUL FLOW THAT INCLUDES H7/H85
WINDS AS HI AS 60-70KTS/50-60KTS EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MID LVL DRY AIR TO MAXIMIZE DCAPE. DESPITE THE STRONG WIND
FIELDS...INVERTED V LLVL T/TD PROFILE AND LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE TORNADO THREAT. SINCE THE MID LVL LAPSE RATES
ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND LACK OF DRY MID LVL AIR RESULTS IN WBZ HGT
IN THE 12.5-13.0K RANGE...THE LARGE HAIL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TOO
HI. SINCE THE SHARPER DYNAMICS WL EXIT TO THE NE AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING WL BEGIN TO HAVE AN IMPACT...EXPECT THE SHRA/TS CHCS AND
SEVERE WX THREAT TO WANE AS THE FRONT MARCHES FARTHER E. VIGOROUS
DRY SLOTTING/ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA WL CAUSE DIMINISHING POPS...BUT LINGERING LLVL MSTR MAY STILL
CAUSE A FEW -SHRA IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE W THRU THE NGT.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...CONCERNED W WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FROPA WL REACH ADVY CRITERIA OVER MAINLY THE EXPOSED
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AFT 06Z WITH W H925 WINDS INCRSG TO 40-50
KTS/VIGOROUS CAD THAT WL MAINTAIN STEEPER LLVL LAPSE RATES DESPITE
SOME STABILIZATION OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF LK SUP/AND
APRCH OF PRES RISE MAX OF 10-15MB/6HRS THAT WL ACCENTUATE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT NEARLY IN LINE WITH GRADIENT FLOW.
FRI...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND APRCH OF UPR RDG...EXPECT A
DRY DAY. GUSTY WINDS WL PERSIST WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING EVEN
THOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO SLOWLY SLACKEN. WITH H85 TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 8-10C RANGE...MIXING TO H75 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS
YIELD HI TEMPS IN THE 75-80 RANGE WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW AWAY FM LK
MODERATION IN LLVL WNW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SETUP OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR...WHILE A FAIRLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING NE ACROSS AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA
THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS OVER NW WI
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE LOW MOVING NNE ACROSS WRN LK
SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING
OVER NW WI AND FAR WRN LK SUPERIOR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
THEN MOVE E AND NE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DURING
THE NIGHT.
WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND THE CYCLOGENESIS...FEEL THAT THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA
TOMORROW EVENING. THERE IS A VERY THIN CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE
CWA. CAPE FAIRLY SKINNY...NCAPE VALUES AROUND 0.1...SO DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
WIND APPEARS TO BE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STORMS. INVERTED V LOOK
TO THE SOUNDINGS OVER THE WEST AND DCAPE VALUES OF 600-800 J/KG.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT...APPROACHING 70-80KTS AT H700 AND
40-50KTS JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SFC...WILL BE
AIDED BY A POCKET OF DRY H700-500 AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
THIS...COMBINED WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NNE AT 65-70KTS ALL POINT
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN SHOWERS OCCUR. WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE LLVL WIND FIELD...COULD SEE SOME
LLVL BACKING OF THE WINDS AND PRODUCE SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER NW WI. BUT THE EXPECTED DRY LLVL AIR
HELPING PRODUCE AN INVERTED V AND LCL HEIGHTS TOWARDS 3-3.5KFT
SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS FAR N.
CURRENT THOUGHT IS BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE FROM
BARAGA/IRON COUNTIES AND WEST...BUT WITH THE STORM MOTIONS...COULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT MARQUETTE/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES BEFORE
HEADING OVER LK SUPERIOR. ADDED DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO THE GRIDS
AND MENTIONED IN THE HWO. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WHERE SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK...WITH HATCHED AREA JUST TO THE SW OF THE CWA.
AS THE LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NE...EXPECT BEST FORCING TO QUICKLY
DEPART OVERNIGHT AND PULL FORCING WITH IT. IN ADDITION...AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE CNTRL/ERN CWA...THE CAPPING BECOMES
STRONGER. WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOOSING FORCING AND MORE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/ERN CWA. 09Z SREF ALSO SHOWING
THIS DIMINISHING TREND IN THE 3HR CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROBS...AS
THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH TO THE NE OVER LK SUPERIOR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT GUSTY SE WINDS IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW/FRONT. BUMPED UP WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE KEWEENAW BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT...WITH THE
STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC /NAM SHOWING 60KTS AT 1.5KFT/. IN
ADDITION...GOOD ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVER THE WEST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW PUSHING NE. ONLY CONCERN FOR
GOING MORE THAN 30-35KTS AT THIS POINT IS AFFECT OF COOLER WATER
TEMPS...BUT THAT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRI...GUSTY WRLY WINDS...30-35KTS...IN THE MORNING BEHIND THE LOW.
DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND H700 CAP SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH
WEAK MID-LVL WAVE MOVING THROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND ML/MU
CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 100 JKG WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE/NO PCPN CHANCES.
LATEST NAM RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON PCPN AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH
REMOVING SLIGHT CHANCES. WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING
THE AFTN WITH EXPECTED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
MIXING TO H750 WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE CNTRL. WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS AND DEEPER MIXING INTO THE LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...EXPECT RH
VALUES TO FALL TO 30 PERCENT. FIRE WX CONCERNS MAINLY OVER THE
CNTRL...WHERE LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THURS NIGHT.
FRI NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM HIGH JUST N OF MN. SFC LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE CNTRL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A WARM FRONT N TOWARDS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT. COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
TOWARDS THE WI BORDER LATE.
CWA WILL BE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TO LK WINNIPEG UNTIL SUN NIGHT. STILL SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW SAT AFTN THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH NE ON SAT...AS IT
BATTLES THE HIGH THAT WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OVER ONTARIO. PCPN
CHANCES ON SAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW FAR N THE FRONT WILL PUSH.
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO NRN WI AND FINALLY INTO UPPER MI BY SUN AFTN. THIS WILL PUT THE
BEST WAA FOCUS OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT ELEVATED CAPES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...SO HAVE CAPPED
THUNDER TO CHANCES FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WITH THE CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE SMALL HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN.
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR LATE SUN AFTN AND INTO SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS DIVERGING WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW HEADING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS SHOWS THE LOW CONTINUING
NNE INTO SRN CANADA ON SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE PUSHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS UPPER MI ON MON. 00Z ECMWF ON THE OTHERHAND DISSIPATES THE
LOW OVER THE CWA AND THEN SLOWLY SLIDES IT EAST THROUGH TUES. AFTER
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD...OVERALL TREND LOOKS TO BE TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
DRIER/QUIET WEATHER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
STRONG WINDS AND LLWS REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE PRODUCT FROM THE MARQUETTE 88D SHOWS 50KT S
WINDS AT 2-3K FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS IN LINE WITH LATEST
BUFKIT FORECASTS. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AS STRONG AS 55 TO 60KTS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE SW BUT WILL REMAIN 40-48 KTS BY 12Z. DECENT
MIXING WILL RESULT IN VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE BUMPED WIND GUST SPEEDS
UP A BIT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
AT IWD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE BY
DAYBREAK. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AS IT SPREADS SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION...REACHING CMX BY 18Z AND SAW
AROUND 0Z FRIDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONVECTION
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012
LOW PRESSURE OVER S MANITOBA WILL PUSH INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS AN ADDITIONAL LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO W
LS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE A NE TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. STRENGTHENING S WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH A STABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THE
STRONGEST WINDS...EXPECT THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE TALLER OBSERVING
PLATFORMS ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
ONTARIO SATURDAY...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS LS SATURDAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
TAKING HOLD. A LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FILL ACROSS MN
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LSZ263-
264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO NRN
ONTARIO RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...SRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE ERN
DAKOTAS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN MANITOBA. AN AREA OF TSRA WAS
MOVING NE THROUGH N CNTRL MN SUPPORTED A SHRTWV NEAR THE NOSE OS
STRONG 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION. OVER UPPER MI...VIS LOOP AND
SFC OBS SHOWED CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS IN THE BROAD WAA PATTERN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012
TONIGHT...AS A SHRTWV OVER NW MN LIFTS TO THE NE AND
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHRTWV OVER NEVADA ROTATES THROUGH
THE WRN TROF...ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AND
MOVE NNEWD ON COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO FIRST SFC LO DRIFTING THRU NW
ONTARIO. EXPECT THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND NEAR THE AXIS OF GREATER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER MN AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET OVER NW ONTARIO. SO...THE NAM/REGIONAL
GEM/ECMWF WERE PREFERRED WITH THE SHRA/TSRA PLACEMENT COMPARED TO
THE GFS WHICH SEEMED OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE PCPN TO THE
EAST.
THURSDAY...THE MAIN SHRTWV LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY SUPPORTING A CONSOLIDATED SFC LOW TO NEAR KDLH BY 00Z/FRI.
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS AGAIN TO THE WEST...CONTINUED TO
DELAY THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHRA/TSRA INTO UPPER MI TIL
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1K J/KG WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 WILL SUPPORT TSRA
CHANCES FROM IWD-CMX...MAINLY AFT 21Z. WITH INVERTED V LOOK TO THE
SOUNDINGS AND VERY STRONG MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD (700 MB
WINDS TO NEAR 70KT)...EXPECT THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH ANY TSRA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SETUP OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR...WHILE A FAIRLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING NE ACROSS AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA
THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS OVER NW WI
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE LOW MOVING NNE ACROSS WRN LK
SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING
OVER NW WI AND FAR WRN LK SUPERIOR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
THEN MOVE E AND NE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DURING
THE NIGHT.
WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND THE CYCLOGENESIS...FEEL THAT THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA
TOMORROW EVENING. THERE IS A VERY THIN CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE
CWA. CAPE FAIRLY SKINNY...NCAPE VALUES AROUND 0.1...SO DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
WIND APPEARS TO BE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STORMS. INVERTED V LOOK
TO THE SOUNDINGS OVER THE WEST AND DCAPE VALUES OF 600-800 J/KG.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT...APPROACHING 70-80KTS AT H700 AND
40-50KTS JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SFC...WILL BE
AIDED BY A POCKET OF DRY H700-500 AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
THIS...COMBINED WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NNE AT 65-70KTS ALL POINT
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN SHOWERS OCCUR. WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE LLVL WIND FIELD...COULD SEE SOME
LLVL BACKING OF THE WINDS AND PRODUCE SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER NW WI. BUT THE EXPECTED DRY LLVL AIR
HELPING PRODUCE AN INVERTED V AND LCL HEIGHTS TOWARDS 3-3.5KFT
SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS FAR N.
CURRENT THOUGHT IS BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE FROM
BARAGA/IRON COUNTIES AND WEST...BUT WITH THE STORM MOTIONS...COULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT MARQUETTE/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES BEFORE
HEADING OVER LK SUPERIOR. ADDED DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO THE GRIDS
AND MENTIONED IN THE HWO. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WHERE SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK...WITH HATCHED AREA JUST TO THE SW OF THE CWA.
AS THE LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NE...EXPECT BEST FORCING TO QUICKLY
DEPART OVERNIGHT AND PULL FORCING WITH IT. IN ADDITION...AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE CNTRL/ERN CWA...THE CAPPING BECOMES
STRONGER. WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOOSING FORCING AND MORE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/ERN CWA. 09Z SREF ALSO SHOWING
THIS DIMINISHING TREND IN THE 3HR CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROBS...AS
THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH TO THE NE OVER LK SUPERIOR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT GUSTY SE WINDS IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW/FRONT. BUMPED UP WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE KEWEENAW BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT...WITH THE
STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC /NAM SHOWING 60KTS AT 1.5KFT/. IN
ADDITION...GOOD ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVER THE WEST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW PUSHING NE. ONLY CONCERN FOR
GOING MORE THAN 30-35KTS AT THIS POINT IS AFFECT OF COOLER WATER
TEMPS...BUT THAT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRI...GUSTY WRLY WINDS...30-35KTS...IN THE MORNING BEHIND THE LOW.
DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND H700 CAP SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH
WEAK MID-LVL WAVE MOVING THROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND ML/MU
CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 100 JKG WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE/NO PCPN CHANCES.
LATEST NAM RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON PCPN AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH
REMOVING SLIGHT CHANCES. WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING
THE AFTN WITH EXPECTED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
MIXING TO H750 WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE CNTRL. WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS AND DEEPER MIXING INTO THE LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...EXPECT RH
VALUES TO FALL TO 30 PERCENT. FIRE WX CONCERNS MAINLY OVER THE
CNTRL...WHERE LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THURS NIGHT.
FRI NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM HIGH JUST N OF MN. SFC LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE CNTRL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A WARM FRONT N TOWARDS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT. COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
TOWARDS THE WI BORDER LATE.
CWA WILL BE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TO LK WINNIPEG UNTIL SUN NIGHT. STILL SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW SAT AFTN THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH NE ON SAT...AS IT
BATTLES THE HIGH THAT WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OVER ONTARIO. PCPN
CHANCES ON SAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW FAR N THE FRONT WILL PUSH.
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO NRN WI AND FINALLY INTO UPPER MI BY SUN AFTN. THIS WILL PUT THE
BEST WAA FOCUS OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT ELEVATED CAPES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...SO HAVE CAPPED
THUNDER TO CHANCES FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WITH THE CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE SMALL HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN.
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR LATE SUN AFTN AND INTO SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS DIVERGING WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW HEADING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS SHOWS THE LOW CONTINUING
NNE INTO SRN CANADA ON SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE PUSHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS UPPER MI ON MON. 00Z ECMWF ON THE OTHERHAND DISSIPATES THE
LOW OVER THE CWA AND THEN SLOWLY SLIDES IT EAST THROUGH TUES. AFTER
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD...OVERALL TREND LOOKS TO BE TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
DRIER/QUIET WEATHER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
STRONG WINDS AND LLWS REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE PRODUCT FROM THE MARQUETTE 88D SHOWS 50KT S
WINDS AT 2-3K FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS IN LINE WITH LATEST
BUFKIT FORECASTS. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AS STRONG AS 55 TO 60KTS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE SW BUT WILL REMAIN 40-48 KTS BY 12Z. DECENT
MIXING WILL RESULT IN VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE BUMPED WIND GUST SPEEDS
UP A BIT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
AT IWD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE BY
DAYBREAK. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AS IT SPREADS SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION...REACHING CMX BY 18Z AND SAW
AROUND 0Z FRIDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONVECTION
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012
LOW PRESSURE OVER S MANITOBA WILL PUSH INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS AN ADDITIONAL LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO W
LS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE A NE TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. STRENGTHENING S WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH A STABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THE
STRONGEST WINDS...EXPECT THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE TALLER OBSERVING
PLATFORMS ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
ONTARIO SATURDAY...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS LS SATURDAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
TAKING HOLD. A LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FILL ACROSS MN
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
646 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
/412 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012/
Short Range (Today through Saturday)...
Several questions have cropped up over the past 12-24 hours which
has introduced some uncertainty with respect to temperatures and
rain chances today and rain chances on Friday.
The overall synoptic pattern features a broad upper trough from the
Northern/Central Rockies into the Upper MS Valley and an associated
cold front stretching from eastern MN through the OK/TX Panhandles.
An embedded shortwave will lift northeast out of CO today resulting
in a deepening surface low tracking northeast along the front from
KS into western IA. The models have been consistent in tracking the
cold front through the CWA today and then stalling just south of the
forecast area tonight before lifting back north as a warm front on
Friday.
Any convection today will be along and west of the cold front
as inspection of progged soundings east of the front depict an
impressive elevated mixed layer(EML) which will act as a brick wall
and prevent any convection forming within the warm sector. In
addition the models have been generating a large area of clouds
around 6k ft across KS during the pre-dawn hours which is expected
to expand east across the forecast area this morning. This cloud
cover will likely suppress surface heating across eastern
KS/western MO today. Initially one could argue highs not making it
out of the 70s. However, by mid/late afternoon the back edge of
these clouds will probably scatter out and allow temperatures to
rebound, possibly into the lower 80s. The eastern CWA should still
be able to heat up into the mid/upper 80s before these clouds reach
them. Short term convective models and conceptual models suggest
convection will have a tough time developing today despite favorable
vertical shear profiles. Marginal instability, a shortwave passing
north of the region and minimal low level convergence should only
support isolated convection. The severe threat will also be muted
with north central and northeast MO having the best chance.
First part of tonight will likely be dry as high pressure briefly
settles in drawing cooler/drier air across most of the CWA. Have had
to lower overnight temperatures due to degree of cool air behind the
front. Building heights aloft on Friday will force the front north.
How strong the isentropic ascent is north of the warm front will
likely determine how much convection forms. NAM/GFS/ECMWF have been
advertising varying amounts of qpf north of the warm front for the
past several runs and hard to argue against it occurring. There are
some signs that a vorticity lobe at h7 will develop across KS early
Friday morning and provide additional support to generate scattered
convection mainly north of the MO River. Some concern for severe
potential across northwest MO/northeast KS during the afternoon.
Location of the warm front during the afternoon will be key as
there will be more than enough instability and shear to support
severe storms. Considerable cloud cover north of the warm front will
keep temperatures from warming. Temperatures will be able to heat up
well into the 80s as the warm front lifts north.
The hot and increasingly humid air will finally arrive on Saturday
as mid/upper level heights build into the region. The EML will
strengthen and keep us dry. Will be flirting with record high
temperatures.
MJ
Medium Range (Sunday through Wednesday)...
Temperatures will remain well above average on Sunday, though a
slight decrease in 850 hPa temps will allow surface temps to be a
couple of degrees cooler than Saturday. Deep upper ridge over the
Southeast will break down on Monday as a closed upper low moves into
the far Upper Midwest. This will allow a weak surface front to drop
into the region Monday afternoon and evening with scattered showers
and thunderstorms remaining a good bet with frontal passage through
late Monday night.
Upper pattern will transition to quasi-zonal by Tuesday and
Wednesday as the front lingers just south of the forecast area.
Elevated baroclinic region will set up a bit further north which
could favor additional showers or thunderstorms depending on timing
of weak upper impulses. Better chances for this right now appear to
be on Wednesday, especially if the GFS is correct with its deeper
surface ridge over the Plains on Tuesday.
Hawblitzel
&&
.CLIMATE...
With the potential for near record temperatures over the holiday
weekend, here are the normals and records through Memorial Day:
Kansas City:
Avg High/Low Record High Records Max Low
Saturday 5/26........78/57...........92 in 1985........68 in 1987
Sunday 5/27..........78/58...........94 in 2006........70 in 2006
Monday 5/28..........78/58...........93 in 2006........75 in 2006
St. Joseph
Saturday 5/26.........79/57..........94 in 1967, 1926...64 in 2008
Sunday 5/27...........79/58..........93 in 2006, 1966...69 in 1991
Monday 5/28...........80/58..........94 in 1998.........75 in 2006
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 12z TAFs, marginal low level wind shear conditions will
continue through at least mid morning before the low level jet mixes
out and/or weakens. Gusty southerly winds will veer to the southwest
as a weakening cold front approaches from the west. While VFR
conditions will continue, a large area of cigs around 4k ft agl will
overspread the terminals at the start of the forecast period. Prefer
latest RUC which is closer to the current cigs moving across KS. A
very warm layer just above these clouds will act as a block on any
convective development. Could see a few sprinkles but no measurable
rain is expected.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1246 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
.AVIATION UPDATE...LINE OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF KGRI AS
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST AND INTENSIFIED...WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE
50KTS NOW POSSIBLE AT KGRI THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012/
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 07Z-11Z.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEST OF KGRI MAY WORK IN LATER TONIGHT...BUT
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 07Z. SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE MOST PART. MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN UNRESTRICTED
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/
UPDATE...KUEX INDICATES CONVECTION SPREADING IN AERIAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CWA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE. DEEP LAYER
MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR NEAR 50KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH COVERS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH 10Z. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/
UPDATE...EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A ~100KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND A ~70KT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK IS NOTED ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS AND BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KOMA...TO NEAR KCNK...TO
NEAR KDDC. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS FROM THAYER COUNTY TO
MITCHELL COUNTY...STILL AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE...REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. KUEX SHOWS A THIN LINE OF
CONVECTION...ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXTENDING FROM
THAYER COUNTY TO MITCHELL COUNTY...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
NOT FIRING FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH 04Z OR
SO...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS DIABATIC
HEATING IS COMPLETELY LOST AND REMNANT FORCING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. THE INDIRECT THERMAL
CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LEFT-FRONT QUAD OF THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL JET STREAK...ALONG WITH CONTINUALLY INCREASING OMEGA AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE FORCING OVERNIGHT WILL BE
RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES
DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000J/KG CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 60KTS.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO
HOURLY GIRDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING CLOUD COVER. CURRENT POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA LOOK RIGHT ON FOR TONIGHT AND THUS RAIN CHANCES WERE LEFT AS IS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/
UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293 FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
11 PM CDT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL
REMAIN WITH AND ALONG EITHER SIDE OF A SLOWLY PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/
SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY ACTIVE START TO THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST EXPECTED TO HELP BRING SOME
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN MODERATE DISAGREEMENT WITH INITIATION OF
CONVECTION ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NEAR
NORFOLK...ACROSS GRAND ISLAND...SOUTH WESTWARD TOWARDS HOLDREGE.
THIS FRONT HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SO FAR HAS YET TO PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING
TO BREAK LOW LEVEL CAP. 12Z NAM AND WRF BOTH DID TRY AND INITIATE
CONVECTION...BUT 18Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR BOTH HOLD OFF ANY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TILL FORCING FROM MID
LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST APPROACHES CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID...INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE...AS LATEST MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FINGER OF 2000+ J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA NEAR THE SLOWLY PROGRESSING FRONT...AND LITTLE INHIBITION AS
WELL AS DEVELOPING CU FIELD IN SATELLITE. PER CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS...DID BACK OFF ON INITIATION OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT INSERTED MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS AFTER 00Z...AS
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP IF INITIATION CAN BE REALIZED NEAR THE
FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION...BROADER SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE AMPLE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN.
THEREAFTER...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL WAVE...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES.
ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW GIVES WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE
SEVERAL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN KANSAS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND THE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
MOVING INTO THE AREA THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THERE ARE WEAK WAVES THAT MOVES THROUGH
BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY TO GET THINGS STARTED SO ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SPOTTY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...KEEPING THINGS DRY.
AGAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THERE ARE A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE AREA WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL WAVES. THE GFS
HAS MORE PRECIPITATION AROUND THAN THE ECMWF DOES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH CLOUDS
AROUND ON FRIDAY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WARMING
AFTER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN
COOLING AGAIN AS THE COOL FRONT MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
COOLING MORE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION UPDATE/AVIATION/1105 UPDATE/949 UPDATE...BRYANT
419 UPDATE/SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1226 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 07Z-11Z.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEST OF KGRI MAY WORK IN LATER TONIGHT...BUT
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 07Z. SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE MOST PART. MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN UNRESTRICTED
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/
UPDATE...KUEX INDICATES CONVECTION SPREADING IN AERIAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CWA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE. DEEP LAYER
MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR NEAR 50KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH COVERS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH 10Z. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/
UPDATE...EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A ~100KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND A ~70KT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK IS NOTED ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS AND BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KOMA...TO NEAR KCNK...TO
NEAR KDDC. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS FROM THAYER COUNTY TO
MITCHELL COUNTY...STILL AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE...REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. KUEX SHOWS A THIN LINE OF
CONVECTION...ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXTENDING FROM
THAYER COUNTY TO MITCHELL COUNTY...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
NOT FIRING FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH 04Z OR
SO...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS DIABATIC
HEATING IS COMPLETELY LOST AND REMNANT FORCING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. THE INDIRECT THERMAL
CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LEFT-FRONT QUAD OF THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL JET STREAK...ALONG WITH CONTINUALLY INCREASING OMEGA AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE FORCING OVERNIGHT WILL BE
RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES
DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000J/KG CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 60KTS.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO
HOURLY GIRDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING CLOUD COVER. CURRENT POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA LOOK RIGHT ON FOR TONIGHT AND THUS RAIN CHANCES WERE LEFT AS IS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/
UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293 FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
11 PM CDT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL
REMAIN WITH AND ALONG EITHER SIDE OF A SLOWLY PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/
SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY ACTIVE START TO THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST EXPECTED TO HELP BRING SOME
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN MODERATE DISAGREEMENT WITH INITIATION OF
CONVECTION ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NEAR
NORFOLK...ACROSS GRAND ISLAND...SOUTH WESTWARD TOWARDS HOLDREGE.
THIS FRONT HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SO FAR HAS YET TO PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING
TO BREAK LOW LEVEL CAP. 12Z NAM AND WRF BOTH DID TRY AND INITIATE
CONVECTION...BUT 18Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR BOTH HOLD OFF ANY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TILL FORCING FROM MID
LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST APPROACHES CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID...INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE...AS LATEST MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FINGER OF 2000+ J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA NEAR THE SLOWLY PROGRESSING FRONT...AND LITTLE INHIBITION AS
WELL AS DEVELOPING CU FIELD IN SATELLITE. PER CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS...DID BACK OFF ON INITIATION OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT INSERTED MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS AFTER 00Z...AS
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP IF INITIATION CAN BE REALIZED NEAR THE
FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION...BROADER SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE AMPLE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN.
THEREAFTER...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL WAVE...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES.
ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW GIVES WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE
SEVERAL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN KANSAS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND THE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
MOVING INTO THE AREA THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THERE ARE WEAK WAVES THAT MOVES THROUGH
BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY TO GET THINGS STARTED SO ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SPOTTY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...KEEPING THINGS DRY.
AGAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THERE ARE A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE AREA WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL WAVES. THE GFS
HAS MORE PRECIPITATION AROUND THAN THE ECMWF DOES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH CLOUDS
AROUND ON FRIDAY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WARMING
AFTER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN
COOLING AGAIN AS THE COOL FRONT MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
COOLING MORE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/1105 UPDATE/949 UPDATE...BRYANT
419 UPDATE/SHORT TERM/419 UPDATE...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1104 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012
.UPDATE...KUEX INDICATES CONVECTION SPREADING IN AERIAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CWA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE. DEEP LAYER
MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR NEAR 50KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH COVERS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH 10Z. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/
UPDATE...EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A ~100KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND A ~70KT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK IS NOTED ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS AND BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE MID ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KOMA...TO NEAR KCNK...TO
NEAR KDDC. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS FROM THAYER COUNTY TO
MITCHELL COUNTY...STILL AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE...REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. KUEX SHOWS A THIN LINE OF
CONVECTION...ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXTENDING FROM
THAYER COUNTY TO MITCHELL COUNTY...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
NOT FIRING FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH 04Z OR
SO...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS DIABATIC
HEATING IS COMPLETELY LOST AND REMNANT FORCING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. THE INDIRECT THERMAL
CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LEFT-FRONT QUAD OF THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL JET STREAK...ALONG WITH CONTINUALLY INCREASING OMEGA AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE FORCING OVERNIGHT WILL BE
RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES
DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000J/KG CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 60KTS.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO
HOURLY GIRDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING CLOUD COVER. CURRENT POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA LOOK RIGHT ON FOR TONIGHT AND THUS RAIN CHANCES WERE LEFT AS IS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SURFACE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL.
LATER ON TOWARD LATE EVENING...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENCOURAGE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND MAY BE A BIT GUSTY FOR THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY ARE SMALL ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/
UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293 FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
11 PM CDT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL
REMAIN WITH AND ALONG EITHER SIDE OF A SLOWLY PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/
SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY ACTIVE START TO THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST EXPECTED TO HELP BRING SOME
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN MODERATE DISAGREEMENT WITH INITIATION OF
CONVECTION ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NEAR
NORFOLK...ACROSS GRAND ISLAND...SOUTH WESTWARD TOWARDS HOLDREGE.
THIS FRONT HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SO FAR HAS YET TO PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING
TO BREAK LOW LEVEL CAP. 12Z NAM AND WRF BOTH DID TRY AND INITIATE
CONVECTION...BUT 18Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR BOTH HOLD OFF ANY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TILL FORCING FROM MID
LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST APPROACHES CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID...INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE...AS LATEST MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FINGER OF 2000+ J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA NEAR THE SLOWLY PROGRESSING FRONT...AND LITTLE INHIBITION AS
WELL AS DEVELOPING CU FIELD IN SATELLITE. PER CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS...DID BACK OFF ON INITIATION OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT INSERTED MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS AFTER 00Z...AS
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP IF INITIATION CAN BE REALIZED NEAR THE
FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION...BROADER SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE AMPLE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN.
THEREAFTER...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL WAVE...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES.
ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW GIVES WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE
SEVERAL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN KANSAS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND THE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
MOVING INTO THE AREA THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THERE ARE WEAK WAVES THAT MOVES THROUGH
BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY TO GET THINGS STARTED SO ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SPOTTY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...KEEPING THINGS DRY.
AGAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THERE ARE A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE AREA WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL WAVES. THE GFS
HAS MORE PRECIPITATION AROUND THAN THE ECMWF DOES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH CLOUDS
AROUND ON FRIDAY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WARMING
AFTER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN
COOLING AGAIN AS THE COOL FRONT MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
COOLING MORE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
1105 UPDATE/949 UPDATE...BRYANT
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM/419 UPDATE...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
801 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ON SUNDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 710 PM EDT FRIDAY...MONITORING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE OTTAWA AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC. OUR DISTANT RADAR VIEW
OF THE STORMS HAS INDICATED A COUPLE OF PRETTY JUICY LOOKING CELLS
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO -- WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES AT THE
VERY LEAST (75DBZ TO 18K FT). NOTED THAT OUR CANADIAN COUNTERPARTS
OUT OF OTTAWA AND MONTREAL HAVE ISSUED TORNADO WARNINGS FOR A
COUPLE OF THOSE CELLS.
WAY QUIETER SOUTH OF THE BORDER, AND AT THIS POINT EXPECTING A
FAIRLY QUIET EVENING. THE 20Z HRRR MODEL SEEMED TO BE DOING A
HALFWAY DECENT JOB, SO I LEANED ON IT FOR THIS UPDATE PERIOD.
HRRR SHOWS THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER,
HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-01Z. THESE
THEN DRIFT EASTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 06Z.
HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF 25-40% POPS FOR THE REGION, THOUGH DID
TIGHTEN UP THE DEPICTED AREA IN THE HOUR BY HOUR GRIDDED FORECAST
FIELDS. LATEST LAPS INSTABILITY ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS 1000-2000
J/KG CAPE VALUES AND LIFTED INDEX AROUND -2C ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD, SO THAT IS A PLUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
IN THE WORLD OF A TEXT FORECAST DEPICTION, IT`S BASICALLY A 30-40%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
SUSPECT WHEN I UPDATE THE FORECAST LATER THIS EVENING, I`LL BE
YANKING OUT MUCH OF THE LOW RAIN CHANCES WE HAVE.
OTHERWISE, SHOULD BE QUIET AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES,
THOUGH CLOUDS WILL HANG LONGEST EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN THANKS
TO MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY PRETTY MILD THIS EVENING -- STILL BE IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S AT MIDNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT THE COOLER AIR TO FILTER
IN UNTIL LATE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE
70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE AN INCREASING TREND IN CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MOST OF THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION
AND INCREASING CLOUDS...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCE/HIGH
CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY GIVEN POOR
INSOLATIONAL HEATING. THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND
12-14C...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 70S ON
SUNDAY WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE EITHER ACROSS OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH REMAINS A QUESTION AT THIS TIME. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RIDING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE AND
INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD TUESDAY...INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME
SO STAY TUNED. THEREAFTER...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BUT IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR/MVFR ANTICIPATED AT MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND SCATTERED SO JUST WENT VCSH
AT MSS/BTV/PBG. OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST. CEILINGS ARE ALL VFR
THIS EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME REDUCTION TO MVFR AT
SLK/MPV/RUT AFTER 03Z AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SOME IFR CEILINGS
ALSO POSSIBLE AT MPV/RUT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG/BR FORMATION AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE ENOUGH MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
FAVOR STRATUS OVER FOG. DEW POINTS DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AS WELL SO MAY BE TOO DRY AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER
ANY SITE THAT DOES RECEIVE RAIN WILL BE AT A HIGHER THREAT OF
FOG/LOW CLOUD FORMATION. SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE ONLY SCATTERED FAIR-
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...AROUND 3-4 THOUSAND
FEET. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING SLACKEN AND TURN WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY FROM 5-15
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THOUGH CHANCES EXIST
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY. 12Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY
LOWER CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
EVENING, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS THAN THE 25
KNOT CRITERIA. ANTICIPATE THE ADVISORY TO BE TAKEN DOWN LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH. STILL A THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
MARINE...NASH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ON SUNDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 710 PM EDT FRIDAY...MONITORING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE OTTAWA AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC. OUR DISTANT RADAR VIEW
OF THE STORMS HAS INDICATED A COUPLE OF PRETTY JUICY LOOKING CELLS
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO -- WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES AT THE
VERY LEAST (75DBZ TO 18K FT). NOTED THAT OUR CANADIAN COUNTERPARTS
OUT OF OTTAWA AND MONTREAL HAVE ISSUED TORNADO WARNINGS FOR A
COUPLE OF THOSE CELLS.
WAY QUIETER SOUTH OF THE BORDER, AND AT THIS POINT EXPECTING A
FAIRLY QUIET EVENING. THE 20Z HRRR MODEL SEEMED TO BE DOING A
HALFWAY DECENT JOB, SO I LEANED ON IT FOR THIS UPDATE PERIOD.
HRRR SHOWS THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER,
HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-01Z. THESE
THEN DRIFT EASTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 06Z.
HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF 25-40% POPS FOR THE REGION, THOUGH DID
TIGHTEN UP THE DEPICTED AREA IN THE HOUR BY HOUR GRIDDED FORECAST
FIELDS. LATEST LAPS INSTABILITY ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS 1000-2000
J/KG CAPE VALUES AND LIFTED INDEX AROUND -2C ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD, SO THAT IS A PLUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
IN THE WORLD OF A TEXT FORECAST DEPICTION, IT`S BASICALLY A 30-40%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
SUSPECT WHEN I UPDATE THE FORECAST LATER THIS EVENING, I`LL BE
YANKING OUT MUCH OF THE LOW RAIN CHANCES WE HAVE.
OTHERWISE, SHOULD BE QUIET AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES,
THOUGH CLOUDS WILL HANG LONGEST EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN THANKS
TO MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY PRETTY MILD THIS EVENING -- STILL BE IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S AT MIDNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT THE COOLER AIR TO FILTER
IN UNTIL LATE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE
70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE AN INCREASING TREND IN CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MOST OF THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION
AND INCREASING CLOUDS...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCE/HIGH
CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY GIVEN POOR
INSOLATIONAL HEATING. THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND
12-14C...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 70S ON
SUNDAY WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE EITHER ACROSS OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH REMAINS A QUESTION AT THIS TIME. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RIDING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE AND
INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD TUESDAY...INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME
SO STAY TUNED. THEREAFTER...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BUT IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...SCT-BKN VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS...EXACT TIMING AND OCCURRENCE OF TSRA AT A TERMINAL IS
TOO DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH VCTS
FOR NOW. THINKING IS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL GET GOING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 20Z...INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 00Z
AND BE DONE ACROSS THE AREA BY 04Z. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SUSTAINED 15-20KTS AND GUSTS
20-30KTS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH. AFTER 04Z...SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT ANY LOCATIONS
WHICH DO RECEIVE RAINFALL TO DEVELOP MVFR/IFR BR/FG. MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR WILL BE KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 11-12Z. AFTER
12Z...ANY MORNING FOG LIFTS TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THOUGH CHANCES EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.
12Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
EVENING, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS THAN THE 25
KNOT CRITERIA. ANTICIPATE THE ADVISORY TO BE TAKEN DOWN LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH. STILL A THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...NASH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS
OF PATCHY FOG. ON FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND SPREAD EAST INTO VERMONT DURING THE EVENING. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...FCST FOCUS WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACRS OUR CWA THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED
WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LVL TROF
AND S/W ENERGY IS COMBINING WITH A SFC COLD FRNT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE AND SFC BOUNDARY WL BE APPROACHING OUR WESTERN
FA BTWN 18Z-21Z FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR STORMS. RAP AND
LOCAL 4KM SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW PLENTY OF SFC TO 850MB RH
DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH
MOIST SE FLW. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MIST...NOT
THINKING AS MUCH FOG TONIGHT...DUE TO BL WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNTS.
ALSO...AREAS ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AND NORTHERN DACKS THAT RECEIVE
ISOLATED RAIN THIS AFTN...WL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR FOG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...BL STAYS MIXED OVERNIGHT ACRS THE CPV/SLV AND SFC DWPTS
IN THE U50S/L60S WL RESULT IN LOWS BTWN 60 AND 65F...WITH MAINLY 50S
IN THE COOLER MTN VALLEYS.
ON FRIDAY...POTENT S/W ENERGY AND SFC COLD FRNT WL APPROACH OUR
WESTERN CWA BTWN 18Z-21Z. LEFTOVER MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z...WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE U70S TO M80S AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY. THIS WL CREATE AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES
NEAR 1400 J/KG...LIS AROUND -3C...AND TT`S NEAR 50. IN ADDITION...0
TO 3KM AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR INCREASES ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA ON FRIDAY
AFTN...AS JET ENERGY FROM MID/UPPER LVL TROF APPROACHES. BOTH THE
NAM/GFS SHOW 0 TO 3KM VALUES AROUND 30 KNTS AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WL BE
WEAKENING ACRS OUR CWA...AS SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS STRONG MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND BEST ULVL DYNAMICS WL BE SHIFTING TWD HUDSON BAY...INSTEAD
OF DIGGING SE ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE FACTORS WL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...ALONG WITH TIMING OF SFC
BOUNDARY AFT 00Z FOR CPV/VT...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WEAKENING.
THE BEST CHC FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO WL BE NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUST TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-22Z.
OTHERWISE...BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WL ENTER THE
CPV BY 00Z AND BE THRU VT BY 06Z SATURDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR
14C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE M70S
MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS. FINALLY...SOUNDINGS SHOW GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BTWN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRNT SWEEPS ACRS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY SATURDAY. LLVL CAA
WL DEVELOP BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
BEST RH PROFILES MOVING EAST OF OUR CWA BY 12Z SAT. THE
COMBINATION OF BL WINDS AND CAA WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR
ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT FEEL A FEW OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WL
SEE SOME FOG. TEMPS WL COOL INTO THE 40S MTN VALLEYS TO M/U50S
CPV/SLV ON SAT MORNING. HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WL RESULT
IN PLENTY OF SUN ON SATURDAY WITH SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS POSSIBLE
ACRS THE MTNS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
COOL BTWN 6-8C ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S MTNS
TO L/M70S VALLEYS. SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS ACRS NORTHERN NY
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION. WL KEEP FCST DRY WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK
INTO THE 40S MTNS TO M/U50S CPV/SLV. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUIDANCE POINTS TO A RATHER ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE OR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND RATHER HUMID WEATHER. CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL
DEPEND ON THUNDERSTORMS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT MONDAY AND/OR
TUESDAY OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS SHOWALTER INDICES
DROP BELOW ZERO (ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY) WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPERATURES
STEADILY RISE FROM 12-13 C ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 14-16 C ON
TUESDAY...LEADING TO HIGHS RISING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY APPEAR PARTICULARLY TRICKY EAST OF THE
GREENS GIVEN FORECAST COOLER THICKNESSES THERE...SO HAVE KEPT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON MONDAY.
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE
GREENS BROUGHT SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THESE HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SKIES RANGE FROM BKN/OVC VFR ACROSS MPV TO FEW/SCT VFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. AFTERNOON MIXING IN THE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAS RESULTED IN SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z/00Z BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER...SO LEFT OUT FOR
NOW. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT THOUGH SOME 3SM BR WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK. DESPITE FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING TO
LIMIT FOG FORMATION...THOUGH MIST LOOKS POSSIBLE.
ANY LINGERING LOWER CEILINGS LIFT BY 12-14Z FRIDAY BRINGING VFR
CEILINGS AND AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH
MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED...THOUGH FEEL AT THIS TIME THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS AS COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.
06Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. POSSIBLE
EVENING FOG/MIST AT MPV/SLK WITH IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR DEGRADING TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD.
12Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SOUTH WINDS AT COLCHESTER REEF LATE THIS
MORNING HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...AND LOCAL BTV WRF MODELS
SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH 2 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A CHANCE
FOR UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CRNT FCST
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE M70S SOUTHERN VT TO M80S IN THE SLV.
THIS SFC HEATING HAS CREATED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1200 AND 1600
J/KG...BUT WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE AND STRONG AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE ACRS OUR CWA. THIS WL RESULT IN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTN...WITH BEST CHC ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS AND ACRS PARTS OF NORTHERN NY. WL CONT TO MENTION SCHC
TO CHC POPS ACRS THESE REGIONS.
FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED.
VIS SATL PIC SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACRS
EASTERN/CENTRAL VT AND PARTS OF THE DACKS. EXPECT AS SFC HEATING
CONTS THESE CLOUDS WL DEVELOP INTO A SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS/TOWERING CUMULUS DECK. RAP AND LOCAL BTV 4KM SHOWS SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE U70S
TO M80S...WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LI VALUES NEAR
-3C. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS
OUR REGION. THIS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTN...THINKING JUST A SCHC DACKS/SLV AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VT
ZNS...WITH LOW CHC POPS NEAR KILLINGTON. MOST OF CWA WL BE
RAINFREE THIS AFTN...WITH TEMPS IN THE M80S SLV TO L80S CPV TO M/U
70S MTNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH EAST AS DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT GREEN MTNS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. NAM AND GFS INDICATE AREAS
OF OVER 1000J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUB-SEVERE.
WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL CHANNEL UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...WITH SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND OVER THE
MTNS DURING THE DAY.
850HPA TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TEENS OVER SOUTHERN VT
AND UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN NY. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS FROM REACHING FULL HEATING POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF VT. MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 60S TO
LOW 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE SUN SETS...INSTABILITY AND
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN THE
VALLEYS AND REACHING THE MID 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH BEST DEFORMATION OVER WESTERN
NY BY 18Z. NAM A FEW HOURS SLOWER...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW
DEFORMATION WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN NY/SOUTHERN VT FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION AT 850MB AND 700MB
IN SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. CAN
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AHEAD AND ACCOMPANYING THE
COLD FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...AS NOTED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE
NORTHEAST...WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH BEST VALUES BETWEEN
25-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND 30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
MODEST SHEAR COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. NOT ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DIME SIZE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUIDANCE POINTS TO A RATHER ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE OR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND RATHER HUMID WEATHER. CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL
DEPEND ON THUNDERSTORMS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT MONDAY AND/OR
TUESDAY OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS SHOWALTER INDICES
DROP BELOW ZERO (ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY) WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPERATURES
STEADILY RISE FROM 12-13 C ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 14-16 C ON
TUESDAY...LEADING TO HIGHS RISING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY APPEAR PARTICULARLY TRICKY EAST OF THE
GREENS GIVEN FORECAST COOLER THICKNESSES THERE...SO HAVE KEPT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON MONDAY.
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE
GREENS BROUGHT SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THESE HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SKIES RANGE FROM BKN/OVC VFR ACROSS MPV TO FEW/SCT VFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. AFTERNOON MIXING IN THE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAS RESULTED IN SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z/00Z BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER...SO LEFT OUT FOR
NOW. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT THOUGH SOME 3SM BR WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK. DESPITE FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING TO
LIMIT FOG FORMATION...THOUGH MIST LOOKS POSSIBLE.
ANY LINGERING LOWER CEILINGS LIFT BY 12-14Z FRIDAY BRINGING VFR
CEILINGS AND AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH
MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED...THOUGH FEEL AT THIS TIME THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS AS COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.
06Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. POSSIBLE
EVENING FOG/MIST AT MPV/SLK WITH IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR DEGRADING TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD.
12Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SOUTH WINDS AT COLCHESTER REEF LATE THIS
MORNING HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...AND LOCAL BTV WRF MODELS
SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH 2 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM/TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
348 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A CHANCE
FOR UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CRNT FCST
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE M70S SOUTHERN VT TO M80S IN THE SLV.
THIS SFC HEATING HAS CREATED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1200 AND 1600
J/KG...BUT WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE AND STRONG AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE ACRS OUR CWA. THIS WL RESULT IN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTN...WITH BEST CHC ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS AND ACRS PARTS OF NORTHERN NY. WL CONT TO MENTION SCHC
TO CHC POPS ACRS THESE REGIONS.
FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED.
VIS SATL PIC SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACRS
EASTERN/CENTRAL VT AND PARTS OF THE DACKS. EXPECT AS SFC HEATING
CONTS THESE CLOUDS WL DEVELOP INTO A SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS/TOWERING CUMULUS DECK. RAP AND LOCAL BTV 4KM SHOWS SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE U70S
TO M80S...WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LI VALUES NEAR
-3C. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS
OUR REGION. THIS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTN...THINKING JUST A SCHC DACKS/SLV AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VT
ZNS...WITH LOW CHC POPS NEAR KILLINGTON. MOST OF CWA WL BE
RAINFREE THIS AFTN...WITH TEMPS IN THE M80S SLV TO L80S CPV TO M/U
70S MTNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH EAST AS DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT GREEN MTNS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. NAM AND GFS INDICATE AREAS
OF OVER 1000J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUB-SEVERE.
WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL CHANNEL UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...WITH SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND OVER THE
MTNS DURING THE DAY.
850HPA TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TEENS OVER SOUTHERN VT
AND UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN NY. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS FROM REACHING FULL HEATING POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF VT. MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 60S TO
LOW 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE SUN SETS...INSTABILITY AND
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN THE
VALLEYS AND REACHING THE MID 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH BEST DEFORMATION OVER WESTERN
NY BY 18Z. NAM A FEW HOURS SLOWER...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW
DEFORMATION WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN NY/SOUTHERN VT FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION AT 850MB AND 700MB
IN SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. CAN
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AHEAD AND ACCOMPANYING THE
COLD FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...AS NOTED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE
NORTHEAST...WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH BEST VALUES BETWEEN
25-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND 30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
MODEST SHEAR COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. NOT ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DIME SIZE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUIDANCE POINTS TO A RATHER ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR LATE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE OR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND RATHER HUMID WEATHER. CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL
DEPEND ON THUNDERSTORMS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT MONDAY AND/OR
TUESDAY OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS SHOWALTER INDICES
DROP BELOW ZERO (ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY) WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPERATURES
STEADILY RISE FROM 12-13 C ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 14-16 C ON
TUESDAY...LEADING TO HIGHS RISING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY APPEAR PARTICULARLY TRICKY EAST OF THE
GREENS GIVEN FORECAST COOLER THICKNESSES THERE...SO HAVE KEPT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON MONDAY.
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE
GREENS BROUGHT SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THESE HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SKIES RANGE FROM BKN/OVC VFR ACROSS MPV TO FEW/SCT VFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. AFTERNOON MIXING IN THE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAS RESULTED IN SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z/00Z BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER...SO LEFT OUT FOR
NOW. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT THOUGH SOME 3SM BR WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK. DESPITE FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING TO
LIMIT FOG FORMATION...THOUGH MIST LOOKS POSSIBLE.
ANY LINGERING LOWER CEILINGS LIFT BY 12-14Z FRIDAY BRINGING VFR
CEILINGS AND AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH
MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED...THOUGH FEEL AT THIS TIME THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS AS COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.
06Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. POSSIBLE
EVENING FOG/MIST AT MPV/SLK WITH IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR DEGRADING TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD.
12Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SOUTH WINDS AT COLCHESTER REEF LATE THIS
MORNING HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...AND LOCAL BTV WRF MODELS
SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH 2 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM/TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
141 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BRINGING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. AN UPPER
LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. A WEAK FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAKNESS IN THE UPR RDG TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR SOME INCRSD
INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES THIS AFTN. WILL CONT WITH
THE FCST OF A CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE OF TRWS IN THOSE AREAS. NAM
HAS THE MOST CAPE...WITH BETTER THAN A THSND J/KG AT AVP LATE IN
THE DAY. RUC AND ARW SEEM A BIT MORE RSNBL WITH ARND HALF THAT OF
THE NAM. IN ANY CASE...THUNDER SHD BE ISLTD AND CHANCE OF SVR IS
QUITE SMALL WITH A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT. DENSE FOG THIS
MRNG SHD ERODE QUICKLY WITH MIXING. MODELS GUID FOR HIGH TEMPS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN MAXES FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
YET ANOTHER WEAK BNDRY BANGS INTO THE RDGG SFC AND ALOFT ON FRI.
NAM SHOWS SOME TALL AN SKINNY CAPE...ESP OVER THE NORTH ON FRI
AFTN. LACK OF LL MOISTURE SHD LIMIT CONV DVLPMT BUT WITH THE BNDRY
AND SOME WEAK HGT FALLS ALOFT...CHANCE POPS SEEM RSNBL FOR THE
AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE NY COUNTIES.
RDG BOUNCES BACK ON SAT WITH INCRSD HGTS AND WRMG ALOFT. THIS
SERVES TO STABILIZE THE SNDG LIMITING THE PSBLTY OF AFTN TRW. SFC
TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND AS WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S ALL STATIONS
AND THE MAV GUID PUSHING AVP INTO THE UPR 80S.
ATTM THERE LOOKS TO BE LTL CHANCE OF SVR...AND WILL BE WELL BLO
AND HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD SO WILL REMOVE CAUTIONARY WRDG FROM
THE HWO AND JUST GO WITH A NIL STATEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 130 PM...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AROUND. JUST AS THE FORECASTER POINTED OUT YESTERDAY THOUGH...WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT BUT WITH THE FRONT AROUND AND
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT. TEMPS
WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY AND MAY APPROACH 90 ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES WITH THE 850 TEMPS ON THE EURO (18C TO 20C) ARE
CORRECT. WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90...AND DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING THE LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES MONDAY MAY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
THE BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING US OUR BEST SHOT AT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY. EVENTUALLY HOWEVER TOWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH AND AGAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 0Z TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE SO CLOSE TO THE EVENT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING
MORE RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE PA AND
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK. FOR NOW WENT MVFR AFTER 06Z EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT KSYR WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
ON FRIDAY MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
WINDS SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUN...GENERALLY VFR.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
121 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A CHANCE
FOR UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CRNT FCST
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE M70S SOUTHERN VT TO M80S IN THE SLV.
THIS SFC HEATING HAS CREATED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1200 AND 1600
J/KG...BUT WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE AND STRONG AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE ACRS OUR CWA. THIS WL RESULT IN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTN...WITH BEST CHC ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS AND ACRS PARTS OF NORTHERN NY. WL CONT TO MENTION SCHC
TO CHC POPS ACRS THESE REGIONS.
FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED.
VIS SATL PIC SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACRS
EASTERN/CENTRAL VT AND PARTS OF THE DACKS. EXPECT AS SFC HEATING
CONTS THESE CLOUDS WL DEVELOP INTO A SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS/TOWERING CUMULUS DECK. RAP AND LOCAL BTV 4KM SHOWS SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE U70S
TO M80S...WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LI VALUES NEAR
-3C. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS
OUR REGION. THIS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTN...THINKING JUST A SCHC DACKS/SLV AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VT
ZNS...WITH LOW CHC POPS NEAR KILLINGTON. MOST OF CWA WL BE
RAINFREE THIS AFTN...WITH TEMPS IN THE M80S SLV TO L80S CPV TO M/U
70S MTNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH EAST AS DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT GREEN MTNS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. NAM AND GFS INDICATE AREAS
OF OVER 1000J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUB-SEVERE.
WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL CHANNEL UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...WITH SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND OVER THE
MTNS DURING THE DAY.
850HPA TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TEENS OVER SOUTHERN VT
AND UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN NY. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS FROM REACHING FULL HEATING POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF VT. MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 60S TO
LOW 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE SUN SETS...INSTABILITY AND
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN THE
VALLEYS AND REACHING THE MID 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH BEST DEFORMATION OVER WESTERN
NY BY 18Z. NAM A FEW HOURS SLOWER...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW
DEFORMATION WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN NY/SOUTHERN VT FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION AT 850MB AND 700MB
IN SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. CAN
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AHEAD AND ACCOMPANYING THE
COLD FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...AS NOTED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE
NORTHEAST...WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH BEST VALUES BETWEEN
25-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND 30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
MODEST SHEAR COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. NOT ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DIME SIZE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 521 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. A FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THIS SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLE MOS MEANS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE
GREENS BROUGHT SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THESE HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SKIES RANGE FROM BKN/OVC VFR ACROSS MPV TO FEW/SCT VFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. AFTERNOON MIXING IN THE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAS RESULTED IN SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z/00Z BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER...SO LEFT OUT FOR
NOW. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT THOUGH SOME 3SM BR WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK. DESPITE FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING TO
LIMIT FOG FORMATION...THOUGH MIST LOOKS POSSIBLE.
ANY LINGERING LOWER CEILINGS LIFT BY 12-14Z FRIDAY BRINGING VFR
CEILINGS AND AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH
MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED...THOUGH FEEL AT THIS TIME THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS AS COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.
06Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. POSSIBLE
EVENING FOG/MIST AT MPV/SLK WITH IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR DEGRADING TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD.
12Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SOUTH WINDS AT COLCHESTER REEF LATE THIS
MORNING HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...AND LOCAL BTV WRF MODELS
SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH 2 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM/TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A CHANCE
FOR UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT THURSDAY...FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT AND PARTS OF THE DACKS. EXPECT
AS SFC HEATING CONTS THESE CLOUDS WL DEVELOP INTO A
SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS/TOWERING CUMULUS DECK. RAP AND LOCAL BTV
4KM SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM
INTO THE U70S TO M80S...WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LI
VALUES NEAR -3C. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTN...THINKING JUST A SCHC DACKS/SLV AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZNS...WITH LOW CHC POPS NEAR KILLINGTON. MOST
OF CWA WL BE RAINFREE THIS AFTN...WITH TEMPS IN THE M80S SLV TO
L80S CPV TO M/U 70S MTNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH EAST AS DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT GREEN MTNS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. NAM AND GFS INDICATE AREAS
OF OVER 1000J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUB-SEVERE.
WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL CHANNEL UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...WITH SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND OVER THE
MTNS DURING THE DAY.
850HPA TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TEENS OVER SOUTHERN VT
AND UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN NY. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS FROM REACHING FULL HEATING POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF VT. MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 60S TO
LOW 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE SUN SETS...INSTABILITY AND
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN THE
VALLEYS AND REACHING THE MID 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH BEST DEFORMATION OVER WESTERN
NY BY 18Z. NAM A FEW HOURS SLOWER...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW
DEFORMATION WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN NY/SOUTHERN VT FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION AT 850MB AND 700MB
IN SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. CAN
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AHEAD AND ACCOMPANYING THE
COLD FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...AS NOTED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE
NORTHEAST...WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH BEST VALUES BETWEEN
25-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND 30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
MODEST SHEAR COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. NOT ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DIME SIZE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 521 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. A FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THIS SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLE MOS MEANS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE
GREENS BROUGHT SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THESE HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SKIES RANGE FROM BKN/OVC VFR ACROSS MPV TO FEW/SCT VFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. AFTERNOON MIXING IN THE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAS RESULTED IN SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z/00Z BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER...SO LEFT OUT FOR
NOW. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR FOR TONIGHT THOUGH SOME 3SM BR WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK. DESPITE FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING TO
LIMIT FOG FORMATION...THOUGH MIST LOOKS POSSIBLE.
ANY LINGERING LOWER CEILINGS LIFT BY 12-14Z FRIDAY BRINGING VFR
CEILINGS AND AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH
MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED...THOUGH FEEL AT THIS TIME THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS AS COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.
06Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. POSSIBLE
EVENING FOG/MIST AT MPV/SLK WITH IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR DEGRADING TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD.
12Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SOUTH WINDS AT COLCHESTER REEF LATE THIS
MORNING HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...AND LOCAL BTV WRF MODELS
SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH 2 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM/TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
110 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A CHANCE
FOR UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT THURSDAY...FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT AND PARTS OF THE DACKS. EXPECT
AS SFC HEATING CONTS THESE CLOUDS WL DEVELOP INTO A
SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS/TOWERING CUMULUS DECK. RAP AND LOCAL BTV
4KM SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM
INTO THE U70S TO M80S...WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LI
VALUES NEAR -3C. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTN...THINKING JUST A SCHC DACKS/SLV AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZNS...WITH LOW CHC POPS NEAR KILLINGTON. MOST
OF CWA WL BE RAINFREE THIS AFTN...WITH TEMPS IN THE M80S SLV TO
L80S CPV TO M/U 70S MTNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH EAST AS DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT GREEN MTNS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. NAM AND GFS INDICATE AREAS
OF OVER 1000J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUB-SEVERE.
WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL CHANNEL UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...WITH SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND OVER THE
MTNS DURING THE DAY.
850HPA TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TEENS OVER SOUTHERN VT
AND UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN NY. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS FROM REACHING FULL HEATING POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF VT. MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 60S TO
LOW 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE SUN SETS...INSTABILITY AND
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN THE
VALLEYS AND REACHING THE MID 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH BEST DEFORMATION OVER WESTERN
NY BY 18Z. NAM A FEW HOURS SLOWER...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW
DEFORMATION WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN NY/SOUTHERN VT FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION AT 850MB AND 700MB
IN SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. CAN
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AHEAD AND ACCOMPANYING THE
COLD FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...AS NOTED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE
NORTHEAST...WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH BEST VALUES BETWEEN
25-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND 30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
MODEST SHEAR COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. NOT ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DIME SIZE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 521 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. A FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THIS SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLE MOS MEANS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE
GREENS BROUGHT SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THESE HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SKIES RANGE FROM BKN/OVC VFR ACROSS MPV TO FEW/SCT VFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. AFTERNOON MIXING IN THE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAS RESULTED IN SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z/00Z BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR PERHAPS A
THUNDERSHOWER AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE
BUT NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER...SO LEFT OUT FOR NOW. EXPECTING MAINLY
VFR FOR TONIGHT THOUGH SOME 3SM BR WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AT MPV AND SLK. DESPITE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THINK
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING TO LIMIT FOG
FORMATION...THOUGH MIST LOOKS POSSIBLE.
ANY LINGERING LOWER CEILINGS LIFT BY 12-14Z FRIDAY BRINGING VFR
CEILINGS AND AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH
MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED...THOUGH FEEL AT THIS TIME THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS AS COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.
06Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. POSSIBLE
EVENING FOG/MIST AT MPV/SLK WITH IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR DEGRADING TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD.
12Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SOUTH WINDS AT COLCHESTER REEF LATE THIS
MORNING HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...AND LOCAL BTV WRF MODELS
SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH 2 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM/TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1209 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A CHANCE
FOR UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT THURSDAY...FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT AND PARTS OF THE DACKS. EXPECT
AS SFC HEATING CONTS THESE CLOUDS WL DEVELOP INTO A
SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS/TOWERING CUMULUS DECK. RAP AND LOCAL BTV
4KM SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM
INTO THE U70S TO M80S...WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LI
VALUES NEAR -3C. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTN...THINKING JUST A SCHC DACKS/SLV AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZNS...WITH LOW CHC POPS NEAR KILLINGTON. MOST
OF CWA WL BE RAINFREE THIS AFTN...WITH TEMPS IN THE M80S SLV TO
L80S CPV TO M/U 70S MTNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH EAST AS DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT GREEN MTNS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. NAM AND GFS INDICATE AREAS
OF OVER 1000J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUB-SEVERE.
WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL CHANNEL UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...WITH SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND OVER THE
MTNS DURING THE DAY.
850HPA TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TEENS OVER SOUTHERN VT
AND UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN NY. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS FROM REACHING FULL HEATING POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF VT. MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 60S TO
LOW 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE SUN SETS...INSTABILITY AND
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN THE
VALLEYS AND REACHING THE MID 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH BEST DEFORMATION OVER WESTERN
NY BY 18Z. NAM A FEW HOURS SLOWER...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW
DEFORMATION WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN NY/SOUTHERN VT FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION AT 850MB AND 700MB
IN SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. CAN
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AHEAD AND ACCOMPANYING THE
COLD FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...AS NOTED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE
NORTHEAST...WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH BEST VALUES BETWEEN
25-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND 30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
MODEST SHEAR COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. NOT ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DIME SIZE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 521 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. A FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THIS SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLE MOS MEANS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECTING AND FOG OR MIST WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
THURSDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AS OF 1130Z THURSDAY. THESE LOWER CEILINGS MAY NOT
LIFT UNTIL 16-17Z THURSDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...DUE TO
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDGUSTS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS OR GREATER POSSIBLE BETWEEN 14Z-17Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. EXPECTING SOME MORE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS IN FOG AND MIST...MAINLY AFTER 04Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH MORNING FOG/BR POSSIBLE. 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH
18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY CHANCES
FOR MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SOUTH WINDS AT COLCHESTER REEF LATE THIS
MORNING HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...AND LOCAL BTV WRF MODELS
SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH 2 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM/TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1009 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A CHANCE
FOR UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT THURSDAY...FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT AND PARTS OF THE DACKS. EXPECT
AS SFC HEATING CONTS THESE CLOUDS WL DEVELOP INTO A
SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS/TOWERING CUMULUS DECK. RAP AND LOCAL BTV
4KM SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM
INTO THE U70S TO M80S...WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LI
VALUES NEAR -3C. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTN...THINKING JUST A SCHC DACKS/SLV AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZNS...WITH LOW CHC POPS NEAR KILLINGTON. MOST
OF CWA WL BE RAINFREE THIS AFTN...WITH TEMPS IN THE M80S SLV TO
L80S CPV TO M/U 70S MTNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH EAST AS DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT GREEN MTNS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. NAM AND GFS INDICATE AREAS
OF OVER 1000J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUB-SEVERE.
WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL CHANNEL UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...WITH SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND OVER THE
MTNS DURING THE DAY.
850HPA TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TEENS OVER SOUTHERN VT
AND UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN NY. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS FROM REACHING FULL HEATING POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF VT. MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 60S TO
LOW 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS THE SUN SETS...INSTABILITY AND
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN THE
VALLEYS AND REACHING THE MID 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH BEST DEFORMATION OVER WESTERN
NY BY 18Z. NAM A FEW HOURS SLOWER...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW
DEFORMATION WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN NY/SOUTHERN VT FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION AT 850MB AND 700MB
IN SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. CAN
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AHEAD AND ACCOMPANYING THE
COLD FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...AS NOTED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE
NORTHEAST...WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH BEST VALUES BETWEEN
25-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND 30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
MODEST SHEAR COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. NOT ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DIME SIZE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 521 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. A FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THIS SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD ENSEMBLE MOS MEANS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECTING AND FOG OR MIST WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
THURSDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AS OF 1130Z THURSDAY. THESE LOWER CEILINGS MAY NOT
LIFT UNTIL 16-17Z THURSDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...DUE TO
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDGUSTS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS OR GREATER POSSIBLE BETWEEN 14Z-17Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. EXPECTING SOME MORE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS IN FOG AND MIST...MAINLY AFTER 04Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH MORNING FOG/BR POSSIBLE. 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH
18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY CHANCES
FOR MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM/TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BRINGING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. AN UPPER
LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. A WEAK FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAKNESS IN THE UPR RDG TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR SOME INCRSD
INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES THIS AFTN. WILL CONT WITH
THE FCST OF A CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE OF TRWS IN THOSE AREAS. NAM
HAS THE MOST CAPE...WITH BETTER THAN A THSND J/KG AT AVP LATE IN
THE DAY. RUC AND ARW SEEM A BIT MORE RSNBL WITH ARND HALF THAT OF
THE NAM. IN ANY CASE...THUNDER SHD BE ISLTD AND CHANCE OF SVR IS
QUITE SMALL WITH A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT. DENSE FOG THIS
MRNG SHD ERODE QUICKLY WITH MIXING. MODELS GUID FOR HIGH TEMPS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN MAXES FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
YET ANOTHER WEAK BNDRY BANGS INTO THE RDGG SFC AND ALOFT ON FRI.
NAM SHOWS SOME TALL AN SKINNY CAPE...ESP OVER THE NORTH ON FRI
AFTN. LACK OF LL MOISTURE SHD LIMIT CONV DVLPMT BUT WITH THE BNDRY
AND SOME WEAK HGT FALLS ALOFT...CHANCE POPS SEEM RSNBL FOR THE
AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE NY COUNTIES.
RDG BOUNCES BACK ON SAT WITH INCRSD HGTS AND WRMG ALOFT. THIS
SERVES TO STABILIZE THE SNDG LIMITING THE PSBLTY OF AFTN TRW. SFC
TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND AS WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S ALL STATIONS
AND THE MAV GUID PUSHING AVP INTO THE UPR 80S.
ATTM THERE LOOKS TO BE LTL CHANCE OF SVR...AND WILL BE WELL BLO
AND HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD SO WILL REMOVE CAUTIONARY WRDG FROM
THE HWO AND JUST GO WITH A NIL STATEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON THE LARGE-SCALE...NWP AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY DECENT THAT HEIGHTS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NERN STATES LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A PD OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE
MAY (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...PSBLY APPCHG 90 DEGS ON SUN AND
MON).
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVE THE TRACK OF UPR-LVL WAVES ARND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND PSBL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR A
WARM FRNTL BNDRY...AS IT LIFTS ACRS NY/PA. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SITN...WE`VE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
JUST ABT ANYTIME...FROM SUNDAY INTO MON. CERTAINLY...THIS PD WILL
NOT BE A WASHOUT...AND WILL VERY LIKELY HAVE LONG PDS OF RAIN-FREE
WX. HOWEVER...TIMING OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS/PSBL MCV`S THIS FAR OUT
IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...SO WE`LL RETAIN SCHC-CHC POPS.
BY TUE...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT FROM THE NW...SIGNALLING
THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRNT...WE MAY WELL SEE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHRA/TSRA.
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT DRIER AND COOLER CONDS WILL FOLLOW BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. REMAINDER OF TODAY
WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDS AT 4K FT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS
DUE TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING
MORE RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE PA AND
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK. FOR NOW WENT MVFR AFTER 06Z.
S/SE AT 7-10 KNOTS.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUN...GENERALLY VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
322 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BRINGING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. AN UPPER
LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. A WEAK FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAKNESS IN THE UPR RDG TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR SOME INCRSD
INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES THIS AFTN. WILL CONT WITH
THE FCST OF A CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE OF TRWS IN THOSE AREAS. NAM
HAS THE MOST CAPE...WITH BETTER THAN A THSND J/KG AT AVP LATE IN
THE DAY. RUC AND ARW SEEM A BIT MORE RSNBL WITH ARND HALF THAT OF
THE NAM. IN ANY CASE...THUNDER SHD BE ISLTD AND CHANCE OF SVR IS
QUITE SMALL WITH A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT. DENSE FOG THIS
MRNG SHD ERODE QUICKLY WITH MIXING. MODELS GUID FOR HIGH TEMPS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN MAXES FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
YET ANOTHER WEAK BNDRY BANGS INTO THE RDGG SFC AND ALOFT ON FRI.
NAM SHOWS SOME TALL AN SKINNY CAPE...ESP OVER THE NORTH ON FRI
AFTN. LACK OF LL MOISTURE SHD LIMIT CONV DVLPMT BUT WITH THE BNDRY
AND SOME WEAK HGT FALLS ALOFT...CHANCE POPS SEEM RSNBL FOR THE
AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE NY COUNTIES.
RDG BOUNCES BACK ON SAT WITH INCRSD HGTS AND WRMG ALOFT. THIS
SERVES TO STABILIZE THE SNDG LIMITING THE PSBLTY OF AFTN TRW. SFC
TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND AS WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S ALL STATIONS
AND THE MAV GUID PUSHING AVP INTO THE UPR 80S.
ATTM THERE LOOKS TO BE LTL CHANCE OF SVR...AND WILL BE WELL BLO
AND HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD SO WILL REMOVE CAUTIONARY WRDG FROM
THE HWO AND JUST GO WITH A NIL STATEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON THE LARGE-SCALE...NWP AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY DECENT THAT HEIGHTS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NERN STATES LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A PD OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE
MAY (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...PSBLY APPCHG 90 DEGS ON SUN AND
MON).
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVE THE TRACK OF UPR-LVL WAVES ARND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND PSBL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR A
WARM FRNTL BNDRY...AS IT LIFTS ACRS NY/PA. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SITN...WE`VE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
JUST ABT ANYTIME...FROM SUNDAY INTO MON. CERTAINLY...THIS PD WILL
NOT BE A WASHOUT...AND WILL VERY LIKELY HAVE LONG PDS OF RAIN-FREE
WX. HOWEVER...TIMING OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS/PSBL MCV`S THIS FAR OUT
IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...SO WE`LL RETAIN SCHC-CHC POPS.
BY TUE...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT FROM THE NW...SIGNALLING
THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRNT...WE MAY WELL SEE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHRA/TSRA.
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT DRIER AND COOLER CONDS WILL FOLLOW BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
LATER THIS MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR, ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED AND AT KSYR IT MAY BE BRIEF. REST OF TERMINALS WILL SEE
STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR
EXPECTED FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS DUE TO LIMITED
AREAL COVERAGE. LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z MORE IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S/SE AT 7-10 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUN...GENERALLY VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
242 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BRINGING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. AN UPPER
LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. A WEAK FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAKNESS IN THE UPR RDG TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR SOME INCRSD
INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES THIS AFTN. WILL CONT WITH
THE FCST OF A CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE OF TRWS IN THOSE AREAS. NAM
HAS THE MOST CAPE...WITH BETTER THAN A THSND J/KG AT AVP LATE IN
THE DAY. RUC AND ARW SEEM A BIT MORE RSNBL WITH ARND HALF THAT OF
THE NAM. IN ANY CASE...THUNDER SHD BE ISLTD AND CHANCE OF SVR IS
QUITE SMALL WITH A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT. DENSE FOG THIS
MRNG SHD ERODE QUICKLY WITH MIXING. MODELS GUID FOR HIGH TEMPS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTN MAXES FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YET ANOTHER WEAK BNDRY BANGS INTO THE RDGG SFC AND ALOFT ON FRI.
NAM SHOWS SOME TALL AN SKINNY CAPE...ESP OVER THE NORTH ON FRI
AFTN. LACK OF LL MOISTURE SHD LIMIT CONV DVLPMT BUT WITH THE BNDRY
AND SOME WEAK HGT FALLS ALOFT...CHANCE POPS SEEM RSNBL FOR THE
AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE NY COUNTIES.
RDG BOUNCES BACK ON SAT WITH INCRSD HGTS AND WRMG ALOFT. THIS
SERVES TO STABILIZE THE SNDG LIMITING THE PSBLTY OF AFTN TRW. SFC
TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND AS WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S ALL STATIONS
AND THE MAV GUID PUSHING AVP INTO THE UPR 80S.
ATTM THERE LOOKS TO BE LTL CHANCE OF SVR...AND WILL BE WELL BLO
AND HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD SO WILL REMOVE CAUTIONARY WRDG FROM
THE HWO AND JUST GO WITH A NIL STATEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM WED UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...NWP AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
DECENT THAT HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NERN STATES
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A PD OF ABV
NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE MAY (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...PSBLY APPCHG
90 DEGS ON SUN AND MON).
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVE THE TRACK OF UPR-LVL WAVES ARND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND PSBL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR A
WARM FRNTL BNDRY...AS IT LIFTS ACRS NY/PA. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SITN...WE`VE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
JUST ABT ANYTIME...FROM LATER SAT NGT RIGHT INTO MON.
CERTAINLY...THIS PD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...AND WILL VERY LIKELY
HAVE LONG PDS OF RAIN-FREE WX. HOWEVER...TIMING OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS/PSBL MCV`S THIS FAR OUT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...SO WE`LL
RETAIN SCHC-CHC POPS.
BY TUE...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT FROM THE NW...SIGNALLING
THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRNT...WE MAY WELL SEE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHRA/TSRA.
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT DRIER AND COOLER CONDS WILL FOLLOW BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
LATER THIS MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR, ONLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED AND AT KSYR IT MAY BE BRIEF. REST OF TERMINALS WILL SEE
STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR
EXPECTED FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS DUE TO LIMITED
AREAL COVERAGE. LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z MORE IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S/SE AT 7-10 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUN...GENERALLY VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1000 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AND DRIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH MINOR CHANGES. THE
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE LAKE
BREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE AT
ERI A TAD. THE HRRR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NW PA
AND THE EASTERN COUNTIES SO WILL KEEP THE 20 PERCENT POP GOING.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS SMALL VORTICITES OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
DELMARVA ALL MOVING NORTHEAST. THESE FEATURES SHOULD NOT AFFECT
THE AREA SO FORECING FOR CONVECTION IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
STRENGTH OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NW PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL OHIO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES
IN THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON HOW FAST TO MOVE THE WARM
FRONT NORTH. THIS COULD END UP HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR AND HOW WARM THE REGION CAN GET SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. FOR NOW WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT
LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY FASTER AND KEEPS THE CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A KTOL TO MEADVILLE LINE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN NORTH OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY.
SINCE WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF TRENDS WE EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN WARMER WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY WARM TO HOT ON MON. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSRA FOR MAINLY THE NW HALF. TIMING
OF COLD FRONT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE SO WILL KEEP PLAN TO SPREAD
CHANCE POPS SE THESE PERIODS...SHIFTING SMALL CHANCE INTO MAINLY THE
SE FOR TUE NIGHT. TEMPS COOL SOME FOR TUE AND MORE SO FOR WED AS NW
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY PATCHY DAYBREAK FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z. WILL SEE SCT TO
LOCALLY BKN CU DEVELOP DURING MIDDAY HOURS THEN DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE EAST BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAF. CAK AND YNG
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY SITES TO BE AFFECTED BY ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION
THAT WOULD DEVELOP. SOUTH TO SE FLOW SETS UP TODAY AND COULD GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD TO SCT TSRA FRI THRU MON AND
PATCHY DAYBREAK BR AND HZ.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SE FLOW WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY AND A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE FRI
MORNING. WARM TEMPS OVER THE COOLER LAKE SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS MOST OF THE TIME. FLOW BECOMES WSW AFTER FROPA FRI
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.
THE FLOW SHOULD VEER AROUND TO NE FOR SAT. FORECAST FOR LATER SAT
NIGHT AND SUN MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE LAKE. THINK BY SUN NIGHT
THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE LAKE AND WINDS SHOULD BE
MAINLY SSW...AND CONTINUE ON MON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
946 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. RATHER STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO STILL THE POSSIBILITY
THAT STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR AS CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012/
AVIATION...
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A STORM ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING... BUT CHANCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE... GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT WITH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST PART OF MORNING FOR MVFR CEILINGS AS
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS.
30
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSED 305 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012/
DISCUSSION...
DESPITE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION... LOCAL WRF... RUC AND HRRR
HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OR NEAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. EVEN IF STORMS
DEVELOP... WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BE ISOLATED AND THEREFORE 20 POPS
MIGHT BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE... BUT WILL LEAVE 20S IN THE WEST FOR
THIS EVENING. IF STORMS DO GO... THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS
HIGH ENOUGH THAT SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LIKELY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION ON SATURDAY... BUT RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
/ALBEIT MAINLY TO OUR NORTH/ AND THEN AS A SURFACE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THERE STILL IS DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE
SURFACE FEATURES ARE LOCATED AS UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES INTO ZONAL
FLOW EARLY-MID WEEK NEXT WEEK... BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
JUSTIFIED. AS PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
LATER IN THE WEEK... THERE ARE HINTS OF POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT
IN THE PLAINS. THIS HAS BEEN THE GENERAL FORECAST FOR A DAY OR TWO
AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 91 68 89 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 72 95 68 92 / 20 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 94 68 92 / 10 10 10 10
GAGE OK 73 93 68 92 / 60 10 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 73 91 70 89 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 71 90 67 89 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1055 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 615 PM IS STILL HOLDING. BULK OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL 08Z OR LATER.
HRRR MODEL IS DOING VERY WELL TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY IN KS WEAKENING
WITH MORE STORMS FIRING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. HRRR PROGS THIS
ACTIVITY TO TRACK EAST ALONG I80 AND THEN DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AFTER 08Z. AGAIN...HRRR WAS THE
ONLY MODEL TO PEG THIS WELL AND WILL USE AS THE SOLUTION FOR
TONIGHTS ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH AROUND 08Z
BEFORE EXITING FROM THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THIS LINE...A SECOND
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AROUND
09Z AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH AROUND 15Z. THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND LOCALIZED STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAINLY SOUTH OF I90 IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN
THUNDERSTORMS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL DROP INTO MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY TO BECOME PREDOMINATE AT AROUND
1000 TO 3000 FEET FROM 12Z AROUND 15Z WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AFTER
15Z.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RATHER TAME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED
FAIRLY WELL OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS GENERALLY
LIGHT ACTIVITY...APPARENTLY DRIVEN BY UPPER THERMAL
SUPPORT...SPREADS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE
ON THIS...BUT THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE MORE POTENT
STORMS WE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS SUPPORT GETS DEEPER TOWARD THE
SURFACE WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT. IN DEVELOPING STRONG THERMAL
AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT...STRONG TO EVENTUALLY ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS SEEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS HIGHER BASED CONVECTION TRIES TO
DECREASE TO THE NORTH. SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS POISED TO
AID THIS PROCESS. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HAND ON THIS
STILL ELEVATED BUT LOWER BASED CONVECTION AND TRY TO PASS
STORMS/PRECIPITATION OUT TOO QUICKLY. WILL BRING IN FAIRLY HIGH POPS
OVER ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND DECREASE THEM BACK TO CHANCE FAR
SOUTH LATE. TO REVISIT SEVERE...THE INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY HAIL...AS WE HAVE BEEN NOTING
SINCE LAST NIGHT. WITHOUT THE STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
FEEDING IN DURING THE NIGHT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BEN
HEAVY ON A GENERAL BASIS...AND HAVE MODIFIED GUIDANCE QPF GRIDS UP
ONLY A LITTLE FOR NOW...BUT IF THE STORMS DEVELOP AS THEY COULD...WE
MAY NEED TO MOISTEN UP THAT QPF SOME. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OF COURSE
WILL NOT DROP MUCH AND MAY IN FACT LEVEL OFF OR EVEN WARM A TAD
LATER...ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF MORE SUMMER LIKE AIR.
/BW
A VERY STRONG WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. LIKELY SOME
MORNING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING...THEN ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS WARM AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE WARM FRONT
WILL SET UP FROM NEAR TYNDALL SOUTH DAKOTA TO AROUND SLAYTON
MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRETTY UNLIKELY ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND EVEN JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. WILL KEEP SOME MID RANGE POPS IN LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MAINLY SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS FORCING
OVER THE BOUNDARY PRETTY STOUT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY IN THE RANGE OF
2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND WITH THE SURFACE TO 3KM BULK SHEAR RUNNING
ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND THE SFC TO 1KM SHEAR LIKELY CLOSE TO 20
KNOTS COULD SEE SOME VERY STRONG...ROTATING UPDRAFTS...IF THE CAP
CAN BE BROKEN. VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A
THREAT...MORE THAN LIKELY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT TOO CLOSE TO
CALL AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LIKELY ONLY
GETTING INTO THE LOWER 70S...POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER IF THE RAIN
LINGERS LONGER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH VERY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FROM ABOUT ELK POINT SOUTH
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
VERY WARM ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY 3Z. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND VERY WARM LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TOWARDS LOWS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
SUNDAY NOT AN EASY CALL AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE NORTH MOVES
THROUGH...AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. BEST SHEAR SEEMS TO FOCUS IN THE MID LEVELS SO TORNADO
THREAT LIKELY A LITTLE LESS BUT STILL DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
CAPABLE OF HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST WIND. SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PWAT VALUES ABOUT
1.5 INCHES AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER STORM MOTION AS THE WAVE RISES ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY.
MONDAY LOOKS A LITTLE COOLER AND BREEZY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT AND
A WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPS. MAINLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
70S.
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(TUE/FRI)...LOOKING LIKE COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CARVES OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS NOT OVERLY AGREEABLE ON STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT BUT DO AGREE ON THE OVERALL COOLER SCENARIO. GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS IN FOR THIS TIE FRAME AND ALSO
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN FACT THE MEN OUTPUT ALSO POINTING TOWARDS
COOLER READINGS. OTHERWISE...GRADUALLY IMPROVING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST...BUT LIKELY STILL BELOW NORMAL.
/08
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
939 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.UPDATE...
LATEST NAM12 SHOWS THAT LO LVL MOISTURE WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
PUSH NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WAA -SHRA/TSRA. HRRR MODEL
WHICH HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH FCSTD REFLECTIVITIES ALSO
SHOWS THIS SLOWER DEVELOPING TREND. HAVE TWEAKED WX/POP GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS THINKING. WDLY SCT -SHRA/TSRA DO PERSIST ACROSS THE
NERN PART OF THE CWA...BUT WITH DWPTS STILL IN THE 40S NEAR THE ND
BORDER...FEEL THAT VAST MAJORITY OF ECHOS REPRESENT VIRGA. BY 12Z
SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD PART OF CWA UNDER PCPN SHIELD...SO KEPT
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE AFT 09Z.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES SURROUND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH THEN
PERSIST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALSO LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE APPEAR TO BE A COUPLE OF FORECAST
PERIODS WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE /DEFORMATION ZONE-FORCED/
RAIN IS LIFTING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED /700HPA WAA AND
MOISTURE-ADVECTION SUPPORTED/ RAIN SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD MINNESOTA. SKIES
ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE CWA ON RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
TONIGHT...THE DEFORMATION RAIN OUT WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
LIFT UP INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE
RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SERN SODAK CONTINUE TO CHUG OFF INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY WANDER INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS /ELEVATED/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
TO REALLY GET GOING LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT OR AFTER 09Z...ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHEN A GOOD SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COINCIDE WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE LOW
LEVEL JET PROGGED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
THAT GOOD ZONE FOR ASCENT ALOFT POTENTIALLY STICKS AROUND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER AND EAST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. THIS IS STILL OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE WARM FRONT...SO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WILL STILL BE ELEVATED...IF ANY CAN DEVELOP. AND
AGAIN...WITH THE COMBINED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN
PLACE...A FEW STORMS COULD GROW TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. IT IS
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT THAT THE CONCERN OVER WARM FRONT PLACEMENT
CONTINUES. IF THE GFS /WHICH HAS BEEN TO THIS POINT VERY
CONSISTENT FROM RUN-TO-RUN/ PANS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THINGS
CLOSELY FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...FOR POTENTIALLY SUPER-CELLULAR CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO. MEANWHILE...NAM-
BASED SOLUTIONS ALL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOWCASE VERY WARM
MID-LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ON SATURDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
ANY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AT BAY OR KEEP THINGS CAPPED. IF A
STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THOUGH...IT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
BECOMING SEVERE RATHER QUICKLY.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH UP INTO NORTH DAKOTA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE CWA COULD INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AND BREEZY WITH LOW LEVEL CAA
AND SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED
AND KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR MOST OF SATURDAY ON EASTERLY PBL WINDS...KEEPING TEMPS DOWN.
THE NORTHWARD SURGING WARM FRONT COULD ACTUALLY END UP KEEPING
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR PERHAPS WARMING THEM OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. INITIALLY IN WARMER AIR ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH THE CWA...WITH CAA WORKING INTO THE AREA ON ITS HEELS.
BETTER MIXING WINDS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S...BEFORE THINGS COOL BACK DOWN TO NORMAL
FOR LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ND.
MARGINAL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH LIMITED LLM
MAY RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU/SCT SPRINKLES FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS...ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LITTLE IN WAY OF INSTABILITY AROUND...SO
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
DROPS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S...WITH LOW MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
WDLY SCT/ISOLD -SHRA FROM KMBG TO KABR TERMINALS WILL CONT TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. SCT/WDLY SCT -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH ISOLD -TSRA PSBLE FOR KATY/KABR TERMINALS AFT 06Z
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR CIGS TO BECOME MVFR AFT 09Z AS LOW CLOUDS ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON ITS NORTHWARD PUSH. LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AFT 12Z FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS...WITH VSBYS OCNLY
MVFR WITH -SHRA BR.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...HINTZ
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
910 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 615 PM IS STILL HOLDING. BULK OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL 08Z OR LATER.
HRRR MODEL IS DOING VERY WELL TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY IN KS WEAKENING
WITH MORE STORMS FIRING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. HRRR PROGS THIS
ACTIVITY TO TRACK EAST ALONG I80 AND THEN DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER AFTER 08Z. AGAIN...HRRR WAS THE
ONLY MODEL TO PEG THIS WELL AND WILL USE AS THE SOLUTION FOR
TONIGHTS ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AROUND 08Z THROUGH 12Z BEFORE
DECREASING FROM THE SOUTH 15Z TO 00Z. IN THUNDERSTORMS...CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY WILL DROP INTO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES...WITH
CEILINGS LIKELY TO BECOME PREDOMINATE AT AROUND 1000 TO 3000 FEET
FROM 12Z TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM 06Z TO 12Z AND COULD CONTAIN HAIL TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RATHER TAME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED
FAIRLY WELL OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS GENERALLY
LIGHT ACTIVITY...APPARENTLY DRIVEN BY UPPER THERMAL
SUPPORT...SPREADS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE
ON THIS...BUT THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE MORE POTENT
STORMS WE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS SUPPORT GETS DEEPER TOWARD THE
SURFACE WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT. IN DEVELOPING STRONG THERMAL
AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT...STRONG TO EVENTUALLY ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS SEEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS HIGHER BASED CONVECTION TRIES TO
DECREASE TO THE NORTH. SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS POISED TO
AID THIS PROCESS. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HAND ON THIS
STILL ELEVATED BUT LOWER BASED CONVECTION AND TRY TO PASS
STORMS/PRECIPITATION OUT TOO QUICKLY. WILL BRING IN FAIRLY HIGH POPS
OVER ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND DECREASE THEM BACK TO CHANCE FAR
SOUTH LATE. TO REVISIT SEVERE...THE INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY HAIL...AS WE HAVE BEEN NOTING
SINCE LAST NIGHT. WITHOUT THE STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
FEEDING IN DURING THE NIGHT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BEN
HEAVY ON A GENERAL BASIS...AND HAVE MODIFIED GUIDANCE QPF GRIDS UP
ONLY A LITTLE FOR NOW...BUT IF THE STORMS DEVELOP AS THEY COULD...WE
MAY NEED TO MOISTEN UP THAT QPF SOME. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OF COURSE
WILL NOT DROP MUCH AND MAY IN FACT LEVEL OFF OR EVEN WARM A TAD
LATER...ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF MORE SUMMER LIKE AIR.
/BW
A VERY STRONG WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. LIKELY SOME
MORNING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING...THEN ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS WARM AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE WARM FRONT
WILL SET UP FROM NEAR TYNDALL SOUTH DAKOTA TO AROUND SLAYTON
MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRETTY UNLIKELY ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND EVEN JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. WILL KEEP SOME MID RANGE POPS IN LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MAINLY SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS FORCING
OVER THE BOUNDARY PRETTY STOUT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY IN THE RANGE OF
2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND WITH THE SURFACE TO 3KM BULK SHEAR RUNNING
ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND THE SFC TO 1KM SHEAR LIKELY CLOSE TO 20
KNOTS COULD SEE SOME VERY STRONG...ROTATING UPDRAFTS...IF THE CAP
CAN BE BROKEN. VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A
THREAT...MORE THAN LIKELY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT TOO CLOSE TO
CALL AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LIKELY ONLY
GETTING INTO THE LOWER 70S...POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER IF THE RAIN
LINGERS LONGER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH VERY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FROM ABOUT ELK POINT SOUTH
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
VERY WARM ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY 3Z. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND VERY WARM LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TOWARDS LOWS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
SUNDAY NOT AN EASY CALL AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE NORTH MOVES
THROUGH...AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. BEST SHEAR SEEMS TO FOCUS IN THE MID LEVELS SO TORNADO
THREAT LIKELY A LITTLE LESS BUT STILL DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
CAPABLE OF HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST WIND. SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PWAT VALUES ABOUT
1.5 INCHES AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER STORM MOTION AS THE WAVE RISES ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY.
MONDAY LOOKS A LITTLE COOLER AND BREEZY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT AND
A WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPS. MAINLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
70S.
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(TUE/FRI)...LOOKING LIKE COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CARVES OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS NOT OVERLY AGREEABLE ON STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT BUT DO AGREE ON THE OVERALL COOLER SCENARIO. GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS IN FOR THIS TIE FRAME AND ALSO
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN FACT THE MEN OUTPUT ALSO POINTING TOWARDS
COOLER READINGS. OTHERWISE...GRADUALLY IMPROVING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST...BUT LIKELY STILL BELOW NORMAL.
/08
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
650 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT/
UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO TRIM BACK POPS.
GENERALLY JUST SPOTTY TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CONVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 06Z AND MAIN FORCING DOES NOT SPREAD NORTH
INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z. IN FACT...LATEST HRRR MODEL HINTS THAT
ACTIVITY MAY NOT GET GOING UNTIL 08Z OR LATER. MAIN FOCUS CURRENTLY
SEEMS TO BE NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT FM NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHEAST
IOWA AND THIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF EVENING AND WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS H85 FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. LATEST GFS SEEMS TO HOLD OFF EVEN LATER
THAN THE HRRR MODEL.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AROUND 08Z THROUGH 12Z BEFORE
DECREASING FROM THE SOUTH 15Z TO 00Z. IN THUNDERSTORMS...CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY WILL DROP INTO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES...WITH
CEILINGS LIKELY TO BECOME PREDOMINATE AT AROUND 1000 TO 3000 FEET
FROM 12Z TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM 06Z TO 12Z AND COULD CONTAIN HAIL TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RATHER TAME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED
FAIRLY WELL OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS GENERALLY
LIGHT ACTIVITY...APPARENTLY DRIVEN BY UPPER THERMAL
SUPPORT...SPREADS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE
ON THIS...BUT THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE MORE POTENT
STORMS WE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS SUPPORT GETS DEEPER TOWARD THE
SURFACE WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT. IN DEVELOPING STRONG THERMAL
AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT...STRONG TO EVENTUALLY ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS SEEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS HIGHER BASED CONVECTION TRIES TO
DECREASE TO THE NORTH. SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS POISED TO
AID THIS PROCESS. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HAND ON THIS
STILL ELEVATED BUT LOWER BASED CONVECTION AND TRY TO PASS
STORMS/PRECIPITATION OUT TOO QUICKLY. WILL BRING IN FAIRLY HIGH POPS
OVER ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND DECREASE THEM BACK TO CHANCE FAR
SOUTH LATE. TO REVISIT SEVERE...THE INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY HAIL...AS WE HAVE BEEN NOTING
SINCE LAST NIGHT. WITHOUT THE STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
FEEDING IN DURING THE NIGHT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BEN
HEAVY ON A GENERAL BASIS...AND HAVE MODIFIED GUIDANCE QPF GRIDS UP
ONLY A LITTLE FOR NOW...BUT IF THE STORMS DEVELOP AS THEY COULD...WE
MAY NEED TO MOISTEN UP THAT QPF SOME. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OF COURSE
WILL NOT DROP MUCH AND MAY IN FACT LEVEL OFF OR EVEN WARM A TAD
LATER...ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF MORE SUMMER LIKE AIR.
/BW
A VERY STRONG WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. LIKELY SOME
MORNING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING...THEN ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS WARM AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE WARM FRONT
WILL SET UP FROM NEAR TYNDALL SOUTH DAKOTA TO AROUND SLAYTON
MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRETTY UNLIKELY ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND EVEN JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. WILL KEEP SOME MID RANGE POPS IN LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MAINLY SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS FORCING
OVER THE BOUNDARY PRETTY STOUT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY IN THE RANGE OF
2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND WITH THE SURFACE TO 3KM BULK SHEAR RUNNING
ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND THE SFC TO 1KM SHEAR LIKELY CLOSE TO 20
KNOTS COULD SEE SOME VERY STRONG...ROTATING UPDRAFTS...IF THE CAP
CAN BE BROKEN. VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A
THREAT...MORE THAN LIKELY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT TOO CLOSE TO
CALL AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LIKELY ONLY
GETTING INTO THE LOWER 70S...POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER IF THE RAIN
LINGERS LONGER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH VERY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FROM ABOUT ELK POINT SOUTH
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
VERY WARM ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY 3Z. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND VERY WARM LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TOWARDS LOWS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
SUNDAY NOT AN EASY CALL AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE NORTH MOVES
THROUGH...AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. BEST SHEAR SEEMS TO FOCUS IN THE MID LEVELS SO TORNADO
THREAT LIKELY A LITTLE LESS BUT STILL DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
CAPABLE OF HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST WIND. SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PWAT VALUES ABOUT
1.5 INCHES AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER STORM MOTION AS THE WAVE RISES ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY.
MONDAY LOOKS A LITTLE COOLER AND BREEZY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT AND
A WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPS. MAINLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
70S.
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(TUE/FRI)...LOOKING LIKE COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CARVES OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS NOT OVERLY AGREEABLE ON STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT BUT DO AGREE ON THE OVERALL COOLER SCENARIO. GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS IN FOR THIS TIE FRAME AND ALSO
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN FACT THE MEN OUTPUT ALSO POINTING TOWARDS
COOLER READINGS. OTHERWISE...GRADUALLY IMPROVING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST...BUT LIKELY STILL BELOW NORMAL.
/08
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
615 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO TRIM BACK POPS.
GENERALLY JUST SPOTTY TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CONVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 06Z AND MAIN FORCING DOES NOT SPREAD NORTH
INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z. IN FACT...LATEST HRRR MODEL HINTS THAT
ACTIVITY MAY NOT GET GOING UNTIL 08Z OR LATER. MAIN FOCUS CURRENTLY
SEEMS TO BE NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT FM NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHEAST
IOWA AND THIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF EVENING AND WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS H85 FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. LATEST GFS SEEMS TO HOLD OFF EVEN LATER
THAN THE HRRR MODEL.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY THROUGH 26/06Z EVEN AS LIGHT SHOWERS
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THAT TIME. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH FROM 26/06Z ON...THEN DECREASE SOME IN
THE SOUTH AFTER 26/15Z. AREAS OF CEILINGS 1-3K FEET AND VISIBILITIES
3-5SM WILL DEVELOP WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CEILINGS COULD
BECOME WIDESPREAD IN SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 26/06Z.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RATHER TAME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED
FAIRLY WELL OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS GENERALLY
LIGHT ACTIVITY...APPARENTLY DRIVEN BY UPPER THERMAL
SUPPORT...SPREADS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE
ON THIS...BUT THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE MORE POTENT
STORMS WE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS SUPPORT GETS DEEPER TOWARD THE
SURFACE WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT. IN DEVELOPING STRONG THERMAL
AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT...STRONG TO EVENTUALLY ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS SEEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS HIGHER BASED CONVECTION TRIES TO
DECREASE TO THE NORTH. SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS POISED TO
AID THIS PROCESS. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HAND ON THIS
STILL ELEVATED BUT LOWER BASED CONVECTION AND TRY TO PASS
STORMS/PRECIPITATION OUT TOO QUICKLY. WILL BRING IN FAIRLY HIGH POPS
OVER ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND DECREASE THEM BACK TO CHANCE FAR
SOUTH LATE. TO REVISIT SEVERE...THE INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY HAIL...AS WE HAVE BEEN NOTING
SINCE LAST NIGHT. WITHOUT THE STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
FEEDING IN DURING THE NIGHT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BEN
HEAVY ON A GENERAL BASIS...AND HAVE MODIFIED GUIDANCE QPF GRIDS UP
ONLY A LITTLE FOR NOW...BUT IF THE STORMS DEVELOP AS THEY COULD...WE
MAY NEED TO MOISTEN UP THAT QPF SOME. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OF COURSE
WILL NOT DROP MUCH AND MAY IN FACT LEVEL OFF OR EVEN WARM A TAD
LATER...ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF MORE SUMMER LIKE AIR.
/BW
A VERY STRONG WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. LIKELY SOME
MORNING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING...THEN ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS WARM AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE WARM FRONT
WILL SET UP FROM NEAR TYNDALL SOUTH DAKOTA TO AROUND SLAYTON
MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRETTY UNLIKELY ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND EVEN JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. WILL KEEP SOME MID RANGE POPS IN LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MAINLY SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS FORCING
OVER THE BOUNDARY PRETTY STOUT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY IN THE RANGE OF
2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND WITH THE SURFACE TO 3KM BULK SHEAR RUNNING
ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND THE SFC TO 1KM SHEAR LIKELY CLOSE TO 20
KNOTS COULD SEE SOME VERY STRONG...ROTATING UPDRAFTS...IF THE CAP
CAN BE BROKEN. VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A
THREAT...MORE THAN LIKELY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT TOO CLOSE TO
CALL AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LIKELY ONLY
GETTING INTO THE LOWER 70S...POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER IF THE RAIN
LINGERS LONGER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH VERY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FROM ABOUT ELK POINT SOUTH
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
VERY WARM ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY 3Z. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND VERY WARM LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TOWARDS LOWS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
SUNDAY NOT AN EASY CALL AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE NORTH MOVES
THROUGH...AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. BEST SHEAR SEEMS TO FOCUS IN THE MID LEVELS SO TORNADO
THREAT LIKELY A LITTLE LESS BUT STILL DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
CAPABLE OF HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WITH A
FAIRLY DEEP AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST WIND. SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PWAT VALUES ABOUT
1.5 INCHES AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER STORM MOTION AS THE WAVE RISES ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY.
MONDAY LOOKS A LITTLE COOLER AND BREEZY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT AND
A WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPS. MAINLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
70S.
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(TUE/FRI)...LOOKING LIKE COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CARVES OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS NOT OVERLY AGREEABLE ON STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT BUT DO AGREE ON THE OVERALL COOLER SCENARIO. GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS IN FOR THIS TIE FRAME AND ALSO
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN FACT THE MEN OUTPUT ALSO POINTING TOWARDS
COOLER READINGS. OTHERWISE...GRADUALLY IMPROVING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST...BUT LIKELY STILL BELOW NORMAL.
/08
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
909 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.UPDATE...
ALL THE MODELS...EVEN THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION
VERSIONS...HAVE DONE A HORRIBLE JOB WITH THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE HRRR STILL DOESN/T KNOW IT/S OUT THERE.
HAVE BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL...AND WILL LEAVE IT THERE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORT FOR MORE RAINFALL JUST GET BETTER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN A REGIME OF WEAK TO
MODERATE DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS A DECENT BAROCLINIC
ZONE...THAT INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUNDER HAS BEEN ISOLATED
THUS FAR...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING FLOW
ACROSS THAT THERMAL BOUNDARY. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ARE BEST WEST
OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE...MAINLY
HAIL...LOOKS VERY SLIM. BETTER CONDITIONS ARRIVE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
WITH CONVECTION ALL ELEVATED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...EXPECT
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD. CAN/T RULE OUT THE
BRIEF MVFR OCCURRENCE WITH A BATCH OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS THAT MAY
MOVE THROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD READILY LIFT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
MODELS SHOWING DECENT 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS MID LEVEL WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SURFACE
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST WARM ADVECTION TO
REMAIN MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST ADDS TO CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. WENT MAINLY MID TO UPPER 50S FOR LOWS...BUT
COULD SEE SOME LOWER TEMPS IF THINGS REALLY SATURATE UNDER
WIDESPREAD PRECIP...AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.
KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH FOR TOMORROW...WITH FRONT CONTINUING
TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THINK EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH THE SFC FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THESE COOLER WINDS OFF THE
LAKE WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY PRECIP TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS WARM AS 925 MB TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST UNDER
NORMAL DRY ADIABATIC MIXING CONDITIONS. THUS BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES. THINK AREAS TOWARD ILLINOIS COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES...SO
DID KEEP SOME LOW 80S DOWN THERE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NWD THROUGH SRN WI SAT NT
AND EARLY SUN AM. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING 850-700 MB WARM
ADVECTION OCCURRING FOR SCT TSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SAT EVENING
BEFORE IT LIFTS PRIMARILY INTO NRN WI. FOR SUNDAY A HOT WARM
SECTOR WILL PREVAIL WITH ANY LAKE BREEZE REMAINING AT THE LAKE
FRONT. GUSTY WINDS/DRY AIR ALOFT AND RESULTANT MIXING SHOULD KEEP
THE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN
THE HIGH BIAS OF THE MODELS. THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
SHOULD KEEP OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING. SLY WINDS AND
WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SUN NT AND INCREASED LOW TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
FOR MONDAY THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS
WILL LIFT ENEWD INTO FAR SRN CANADA. THE LARGE UPPER LOW HOWEVER
WILL STILL RESULT IN 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 120 M FROM 12Z MON TO
12Z TUE WITH COLD FROPA MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CAPE
VALUES COULD SUFFER IF THE WINDY NAM VERIFIES BUT BELIEVE ENOUGH
POOLING OF DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT THAT LIKELY POPS
ARE WARRANTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EXPECTED FRONTAL LIFT AND
AFOREMENTIONED HT. FALLS. A LOWER END SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS DUE TO
MDT UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL FOR TUE AND WED IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY BY THU. SRN WI WILL
BE ON THE NRN END OF THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THESE
FEATURES AND WOULD NOT BE SURPISED IF NICE...DRY WX OCCURS WITH
THESE FEATURES STAYING SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR WED NT- FRI. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BUT PLEASANT.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THEN EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
120 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT (<5 KTS) FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS
WHETHER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND PROXIMITY OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...BELIEVE THAT SUBSIDENCE AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WL
TEND TO INHIBIT (OR KEEP TO A MINIMUM) SHWRS/TSTMS ACTIVITY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN, IF ANY STORM DEVELOPS, THE FORECAST
STEERING FLOW SUGGEST A MOVEMENT MAINLY TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...THEREFORE DECIDED NOT TO MENTION ANY
PRECIP IN THE TAFS. WL ALSO EXPECT LOCAL WIND REGIME TO BE
DOMINATED BY LOCAL SEA BREEZES WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE ERN
TERMINALS AND W-NW WINDS AT KAPF FROM MID-MORNING ON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012/
..NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
IN THE MARINE ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL ENTITY BY LATE TONIGHT.
A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO REMAINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING JUST WEST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MEANWHILE, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH SOUTH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED IN LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATERS, SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST, POPS
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 10-20 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
WITH A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT, ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND
LOCAL MESO-SCALE EFFECTS. THE HRRR SHOWS THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AND PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BY 21Z. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR EVEN
MARGINALLY SEVERE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELL MERGERS. STRONG WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR.
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CONTINUING TO ADVANCE INLAND,
LITTLE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END AFTER 00Z, ALTHOUGH
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WHILE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN BE
STRONG, ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER CONSISTENT AND SHOWS THE
DEVELOPING WARM-CORE LOW COMING TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT WILL THEN
SLOW AND ULTIMATELY GO BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AND H85 WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, CONVECTION MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE POSSIBLE WARM-CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
WEAKENED, BUT WILL ONLY SLOWLY PUSH BACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. SO WHILE THE
BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH, A RATHER
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY PREVAIL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE CLIMO.
AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS
DEVELOPED AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS
AND THEN THEY COULD DRIFT BACK CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST TERMINALS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO DEVELOP
AT KAPF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS.
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A SMALL SWELL MAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH
COAST, BY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS
THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A POSSIBLE WARM CORE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON LOCAL MARINE
CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 74 88 74 / 30 20 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 75 88 76 / 30 20 40 30
MIAMI 88 74 89 74 / 30 20 40 30
NAPLES 91 73 90 73 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
401 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
TODAY WILL DEFINITELY BECOME VERY WINDY, AND BY 23Z OR 00Z A FEW
STRONG STORMS COULD FORM IN OUR NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL ZONES, FROM
LACROSSE TO CIMARRON. THESE STORMS WILL FROM JUST NORTH OF A DRY
LINE AND THE MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN NOW AND THEN COULD PRODUCE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL, AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. THE HRRR MODEL
EVEN SUGGESTS A FEW SPOTS OF OVER 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE CAPE
WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED ENOUGH PER THE NAM MODEL, IN THE 3000 J/KM
LEVEL BY 00Z, AND THUS HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE IS ALSO A RISK.
FOR NOW, I PUT POSSIBLE SEVERE WORDING WITH MODERATE RAIN IN THE
PRECIP TYPE, AND PLAN TO GO STRONG ON HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL IN
THE HWO, WITH THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. AS FOR POPS, I UPPED THE POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST TO 40
PERCENT, AND THAT MAY NEED TO BE HEIGHTENED EVEN MORE ONCE AND WHERE
THE PRECIP FIRES. OF OTHER CONCERNS, THERE IS A 50 TO 60 KT JET AT
850MB WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE MIXING DOWN AS THE DAY WARMS
UP, SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OUR COUNTIES,
FROM ELKHART TO MEDICINE LODGE AND FROM INGLEWOOD TO HAYS. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTH AND INCREASE TOWARDS 17Z INTO THE 30G40 MPH RANGE,
FIRST IN THE WEST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND THEN QUICKLY SPREAD
TO THE EAST TOWARDS HAYS, PRATT AND KIOWA. WINDS MAY INCREASE STILL
MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ICT AND PUB BOTH MADE GOOD POINTS
THAT THE ADVISORY (WARNING LEVEL IN PUB`S AREA) COULD EXTEND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. I CHOSE THE END TIME FOR THE WIND ADVISORY AS
02Z, CLOSER TO THE TIME OF SUNDOWN THAN THE 04Z END TIME CHOSEN BY
PUB. IT WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY, AND HAVE TO WONDER IF ANY SPOTS IN
MY FORECAST AREA WILL REACH THE 100F DEGREE MARK. STAYED JUST SHY
OF THAT AND THIS IS NEAR ISC MAX TEMPS. I, WENT WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 90S IN OUR EAST AT SUCH LOCATIONS OF MEDICINE LODGE AND
LARNED, AND RANGING UP TO THE UPPER 90S IN OUR WEST NEAR GARDEN CITY
AND JOHNSON CITY.
THE POPS DECREASED TO 20 PERCENT THIS EVENING, BUT WILL EXIST
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z, AS THE DRY LINE (OR WARM FRONT) RECEDES WEST TO
NEAR EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WILL ONLY DECREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE, WITH THE GRADIENT STILL TIGHT FROM COLORADO TO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THESE WINDS WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING FAST, AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 60S NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER 70S FROM HAYS TO
SAINT JOHN TO MEDICINE LODGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
IMMEDIATE CHALLENGES FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE FOCUSED ON THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES, AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE MODES AND THREATS FOR
SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED TROUGH DROPPING
DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT
ROTATES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF, GFS AND NAM ALL DEVELOP A ROUGHLY
SIMILAR SOLUTION, WHICH CONSISTS OF A STRONG 100 KNOT UPPER JET FROM
THE 4 CORNERS REGION THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY. A TIGHT
UPPER HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME, AND AN IMPRESSIVE DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE FAR
WESTERN KANSAS COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A DRYLINE WILL
SERVE AS AN IMPRESSIVE SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, AND THE NAM AT THIS TIME IS STILL INDICATING IMPRESSIVE 1.2
TO 1.4 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE MOISTURE POOLING IS
EVIDENT. THE NAM`S CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS TIME, BUT IT IS LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE OCCURRING ANYWHERE ALONG THE FEATURE AND EASTWARD PAST 00 UTC
MONDAY. WITH SUCH A SETUP, TORNADOES, LOCAL FLOODING AND STRONGLY
ROTATING STORMS SUPPORTING SEVERE WINDS AND BASEBALL SIZED HAIL OR
LARGER MIGHT BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF A MEAN ELLIS TO MEADE
LINE.
AFTER THIS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, AND THE
IMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BECOMES REPLACED BY A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ON MONDAY. MODELS PRODUCE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20`S AND
30S BY THAT TIME. A BRIEF RESPITE FROM CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON MONDAY
BEFORE THE WINDS VEER STRONGLY ONCE AGAIN AND SPREAD ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
MORNING BY SOME NUMERICAL MODELS. A HIGH DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO PLAY AT THIS POINT. AN UPPER JET SPREADING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR LARGE
SCALE LIFT BY MID TO LATE WEEK TO DRIVE MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH STRONG WINDS SATURDAY. AS A
WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO MARCH NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY, CIRRUS CLOUD AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 12G25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG AS FORMED IN PARTS OF WYOMING AND
NORTHERN COLORADO, AND THIS IFR/MVFR FOG MAY SLIP SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND BRING VSBYS DOWN IN HYS AND GCK TO THE IFR CATEGORY.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 13Z, AS A DRY LINE FORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SATURDAY AT 26G36 KNOTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE HYS AND GCK TAF SITES, AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE DDC TAF SITE. I CHOSE TO LEAVE MENTION OF TS
OUT OF THE TAFS, SINCE THAT IS 15 HOURS OR SO OUT IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 96 70 92 62 / 30 20 70 30
GCK 97 69 93 59 / 30 30 30 20
EHA 96 62 90 58 / 20 30 20 10
LBL 96 65 91 60 / 30 20 30 10
HYS 97 72 91 63 / 40 30 80 70
P28 94 72 91 67 / 10 20 70 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
351 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
...UPDATED THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
TODAY WILL DEFINITELY BECOME VERY WINDY, AND BY 23Z OR 00Z A FEW
STRONG STORMS COULD FORM IN OUR NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL ZONES, FROM
LACROSSE TO CIMARRON. THESE STORMS WILL FROM JUST NORTH OF A DRY
LINE AND THE MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN NOW AND THEN COULD PRODUCE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL, AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. THE HRRR MODEL
EVEN SUGGESTS A FEW SPOTS OF OVER 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE CAPE
WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED ENOUGH PER THE NAM MODEL, IN THE 3000 J/KM
LEVEL BY 00Z, AND THUS HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE IS ALSO A RISK.
FOR NOW, I PUT POSSIBLE SEVERE WORDING WITH MODERATE RAIN IN THE
PRECIP TYPE, AND PLAN TO GO STRONG ON HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL IN
THE HWO, WITH THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. AS FOR POPS, I UPPED THE POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST TO 40
PERCENT, AND THAT MAY NEED TO BE HEIGHTENED EVEN MORE ONCE AND WHERE
THE PRECIP FIRES. OF OTHER CONCERNS, THERE IS A 50 TO 60 KT JET AT
850MB WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE MIXING DOWN AS THE DAY WARMS
UP, SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OUR COUNTIES,
FROM ELKHART TO MEDICINE LODGE AND FROM INGLEWOOD TO HAYS. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTH AND INCREASE TOWARDS 17Z INTO THE 30G40 MPH RANGE,
FIRST IN THE WEST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND THEN QUICKLY SPREAD
TO THE EAST TOWARDS HAYS, PRATT AND KIOWA. WINDS MAY INCREASE STILL
MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ICT AND PUB BOTH MADE GOOD POINTS
THAT THE ADVISORY (WARNING LEVEL IN PUB`S AREA) COULD EXTEND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. I CHOSE THE END TIME FOR THE WIND ADVISORY AS
02Z, CLOSER TO THE TIME OF SUNDOWN THAN THE 04Z END TIME CHOSEN BY
PUB. IT WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY, AND HAVE TO WONDER IF ANY SPOTS IN
MY FORECAST AREA WILL REACH THE 100F DEGREE MARK. STAYED JUST SHY
OF THAT AND THIS IS NEAR ISC MAX TEMPS. I, WENT WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 90S IN OUR EAST AT SUCH LOCATIONS OF MEDICINE LODGE AND
LARNED, AND RANGING UP TO THE UPPER 90S IN OUR WEST NEAR GARDEN CITY
AND JOHNSON CITY.
THE POPS DECREASED TO 20 PERCENT THIS EVENING, BUT WILL EXIST
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z, AS THE DRY LINE (OR WARM FRONT) RECEDES WEST TO
NEAR EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WILL ONLY DECREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE, WITH THE GRADIENT STILL TIGHT FROM COLORADO TO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THESE WINDS WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING FAST, AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 60S NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER 70S FROM HAYS TO
SAINT JOHN TO MEDICINE LODGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT:
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A WEAK UL SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW EVENING. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE
OVERALL COVERAGE GIVEN THIS SMALL PERTURBATION THAT MIGHT NOT PAN OUT
AND FAIRLY WARM 11 TO 12 DEG C 700 HPA TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, WE
KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE (1000 J/KG SBCAPE/20
KT 0-6 KM SHEAR).
SUNDAY:
THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE INTERESTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A 95 KT 250 HPA JET WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A MORE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
TRIPLE POINT OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, THE DRYLINE AND THE
WARM FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEFINITELY BE MORE OF A CONCERN AS THE
OVERALL KINEMATIC PROFILE STRENGTHENS AND IN COMBINATION WITH DECENT
SURFACE BASED CAPE. ANVIL LEVEL SR FLOW AROUND 35 KT, 3 TO 6 KM SR FLOW
OF 18 KT, 700-850 HPA LAPSE RATES OF 8.2 C/KM, AND 500-300 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7.2 C/KM ALL POINT TO THE CHANCE FOR GIANT HAIL SUNDAY. MUCAPE/MLCAPE
DURING THE AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO ABOUT AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE EVENT
LOOKS SYNOPTICALLY SIMILAR TO JUNE 18TH 2010 WHERE GRAPEFRUIT SIZE HAIL
WAS REPORTED. OF COURSE, THIS IS ALL MESOSCALE NOISE AT THIS POINT AND
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL, WOULD NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO
BUT THE LOWER LCLS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NC KS/SC NE ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
MONDAY:
250/500 HPA FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SYNOPTIC WAVE MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN
850 HPA TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST IN THE 20S DEG C. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS TANKING
DOWN INTO THE 30S & 40S DEG F.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND:
DID NOT STRAY FROM THE ALLBLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SUBTROPIC JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH LEE TROUGHING, MOISTURE
RETURN, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES TOWARDS THE
END OF THE MONTH AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND 700/850 HPA
TEMPERATURES COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH STRONG WINDS SATURDAY. AS A
WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO MARCH NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY, CIRRUS CLOUD AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 12G25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG AS FORMED IN PARTS OF WYOMING AND
NORTHERN COLORADO, AND THIS IFR/MVFR FOG MAY SLIP SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND BRING VSBYS DOWN IN HYS AND GCK TO THE IFR CATEGORY.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 13Z, AS A DRY LINE FORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SATURDAY AT 26G36 KNOTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE HYS AND GCK TAF SITES, AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE DDC TAF SITE. I CHOSE TO LEAVE MENTION OF TS
OUT OF THE TAFS, SINCE THAT IS 15 HOURS OR SO OUT IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 96 70 92 62 / 30 20 70 30
GCK 97 69 93 59 / 30 30 30 20
EHA 96 62 90 58 / 20 30 20 10
LBL 96 65 91 60 / 30 20 30 10
HYS 97 72 91 63 / 40 30 80 70
P28 94 72 91 67 / 10 20 70 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1236 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
A -27C 500MB UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WERE EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ONE SUBTLE
WAVE APPEARING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, VIA WATER VAPOR LOOP.
AT 250 AND 300MB LEVEL AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS
JET NEAR CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT 700MB THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS WITH +12C AT DOGE CITY, +14C AT AMARILLO, AND +13C
AT OKLAHOMA CITY. AT 850MB LEVEL MOISTURE WAS POOLING NEAR THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE 850MB WARM FRONT WHICH STRETCHED FROM THE
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AT 12Z FRIDAY WAS AT
17Z LOCATED FROM NEAR GARDEN CITY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. A
DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF DODGE CITY SOUTH OF
THIS WARM FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
DODGE CITY RADAR APPEARS TO BE PICKING UP ON THE WARM FRONT AS OF
18Z AND PLACED THIS BOUNDARY FROM NEAR GARDEN CITY TO JETMORE TO
NEAR BURDETT AND LARNED. RAP ALSO INDICATING IMPROVING 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHILE 700MB TEMPERATURES VARIED
FROM +13 TO +14C. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE STILL INDICATING A
CAP IN PLACE BUT ALSO HAD 2000-3000J/KG PRESENT IN THIS AREA AS
WELL. CLOUD COVER FINALLY STARTING TO ERODE AND TEMPERATURES ARE
STARTING TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AT THIS TIME IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WILL BE REACHED BY LATE
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF JETMORE. WILL THEREFORE RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND EAST OF JETMORE LATE
TODAY. LATEST RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATED 0-6KM SHEAR OF 50KTS, LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEAR/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND LOW LCLS AT 00Z
SATURDAY SO IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME THE CAP LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO OR TWO STILL SEEMS REASONABLE NEAR THE WARM FRONT. CORFIDI
VECTORS AND BUNKERS STORM MOTION INDICATES A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT
FROM THESE STORMS LATE TODAY WHICH SHOULD TAKE ANY LATE DAY
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.
A DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT
INTO THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA. BASED ON 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS
DRYLINE LOCATED NEAR DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND. THIS WILL ALSO BE AN
AREA OF FORCING LATE TODAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT GIVEN
THE HIGHER LCLS AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM
THESE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP WILL BE HAIL. AGAIN STORM MOTION WILL
TAKE THESE STORMS NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WARM FRONT IS STILL FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS
TO LIFT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS THE DRY LINE RETREATS WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE COLORADO BORDER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. THIS ALONG WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS OF OF 35 TO NEAR 40
KTS AM LEANING TOWARDS ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF OF
WESTERN KANSAS. PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27 TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM NEAR HAYS TO ELKHART LATE DAY.
THIS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODELS HAD PLACED
THIS BOUNDARY LATE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT:
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A WEAK UL SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW EVENING. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE
OVERALL COVERAGE GIVEN THIS SMALL PERTURBATION THAT MIGHT NOT PAN OUT
AND FAIRLY WARM 11 TO 12 DEG C 700 HPA TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, WE
KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE (1000 J/KG SBCAPE/20
KT 0-6 KM SHEAR).
SUNDAY:
THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE INTERESTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A 95 KT 250 HPA JET WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A MORE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
TRIPLE POINT OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, THE DRYLINE AND THE
WARM FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEFINITELY BE MORE OF A CONCERN AS THE
OVERALL KINEMATIC PROFILE STRENGTHENS AND IN COMBINATION WITH DECENT
SURFACE BASED CAPE. ANVIL LEVEL SR FLOW AROUND 35 KT, 3 TO 6 KM SR FLOW
OF 18 KT, 700-850 HPA LAPSE RATES OF 8.2 C/KM, AND 500-300 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7.2 C/KM ALL POINT TO THE CHANCE FOR GIANT HAIL SUNDAY. MUCAPE/MLCAPE
DURING THE AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO ABOUT AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE EVENT
LOOKS SYNOPTICALLY SIMILAR TO JUNE 18TH 2010 WHERE GRAPEFRUIT SIZE HAIL
WAS REPORTED. OF COURSE, THIS IS ALL MESOSCALE NOISE AT THIS POINT AND
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL, WOULD NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO
BUT THE LOWER LCLS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NC KS/SC NE ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
MONDAY:
250/500 HPA FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SYNOPTIC WAVE MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN
850 HPA TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST IN THE 20S DEG C. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS TANKING
DOWN INTO THE 30S & 40S DEG F.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND:
DID NOT STRAY FROM THE ALLBLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
SUBTROPIC JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH LEE TROUGHING, MOISTURE
RETURN, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES TOWARDS THE
END OF THE MONTH AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND 700/850 HPA
TEMPERATURES COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH STRONG WINDS SATURDAY. AS A
WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO MARCH NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY, CIRRUS CLOUD AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 12G25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG AS FORMED IN PARTS OF WYOMING AND
NORTHERN COLORADO, AND THIS IFR/MVFR FOG MAY SLIP SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND BRING VSBYS DOWN IN HYS AND GCK TO THE IFR CATEGORY.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 13Z, AS A DRY LINE FORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SATURDAY AT 26G36 KNOTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE HYS AND GCK TAF SITES, AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE DDC TAF SITE. I CHOSE TO LEAVE MENTION OF TS
OUT OF THE TAFS, SINCE THAT IS 15 HOURS OR SO OUT IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 92 62 86 / 20 40 30 0
GCK 69 93 59 85 / 20 30 20 0
EHA 66 90 58 85 / 20 10 10 0
LBL 69 91 60 86 / 20 20 20 0
HYS 72 91 63 84 / 20 60 70 0
P28 72 91 67 89 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
339 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AREA WILL MOVE NORTH OF M-46 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE HEAT SUNDAY AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...MAINLY NON-SEVERE.
* HOT SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES UPPER 90S SOUTH ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 ACROSS IOWA AND NRN IL. IT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT AND CLOSE TO THE H8 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES IS A FAVORED AREA OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND THIS MORNING
IS NO
EXCEPTION. THIS PCPN WAS GENERALLY MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING A BIT
AS IT APPROACHED LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS ISN/T TOO SURPRISING GIVEN
THAT THE LLJ IS VERY WEAK IN THIS AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
PCPN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT HITS THE LAKE SHORE AROUND 11Z MAINLY
NORTH OF I-96.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...INITIALLY ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE SFC LOW DRIVING
THIS FRONT NWD IS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SO WE SHOULD SEE THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SVR STORMS WELL WEST OF THE CWA WHERE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE GREATEST. THAT SAID...AN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL FUNNEL SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS NRN IL/SRN
LWR TODAY. THESE WAVES WILL ACT TO INCREASE COVERAGE AFTER 18Z
TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO COVER THIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND SO SHOULD MUCH
OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY. WE/LL BECOME INCREASINGLY CAPPED AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM IS TIMING OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT MAIN BATCH
OF CONVECTION TO BE ARRIVING IN THE EVENING. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND SLOWER EURO AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. FRONT IS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH MORNING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES THEN DRY AND COOLER FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE 00Z EURO HAS
LOST THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN INDICATED FORMING AT THE SOUTHERN
END OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES
BAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
CONVECTION IS FIRING JUST NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL
IOWA AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER THE TSRA WOULD
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE AROUND 7 AM. FARTHER NORTH...SCT SHRA
ARE MOVING EWD ALONG M-46. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CLIP
KMKG/KLAN PRIOR TO 12Z. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DURING THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS...WINDS AND WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
333 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AREA WILL MOVE NORTH OF M-46 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE HEAT SUNDAY AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...MAINLY NON-SEVERE.
* HOT SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES UPPER 90S SOUTH ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 ACROSS IOWA AND NRN IL. IT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT AND CLOSE TO THE H8 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES IS A FAVORED AREA OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND THIS MORNING IS NO
EXCEPTION. THIS PCPN WAS GENERALLY MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING A BIT
AS IT APPROACHED LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS ISN/T TOO SURPRISING GIVEN
THAT THE LLJ IS VERY WEAK IN THIS AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
PCPN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT HITS THE LAKE SHORE AROUND 11Z MAINLY
NORTH OF I-96.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...INITIALLY ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE SFC LOW DRIVING
THIS FRONT NWD IS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SO WE SHOULD SEE THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SVR STORMS WELL WEST OF THE CWA WHERE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE GREATEST. THAT SAID...AN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL FUNNEL SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS NRN IL/SRN
LWR TODAY. THESE WAVES WILL ACT TO INCREASE COVERAGE AFTER 18Z
TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO COVER THIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND SO SHOULD MUCH
OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY. WE/LL BECOME INCREASINGLY CAPPED AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012
THE MAIN CHALLENGES OF THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DEALING
WITH THE HEAT AND CONVECTION SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND THEN PCPN
CHCS AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO THE SUN THROUGH
MON TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN MOVING THE FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA
FIRST THING SUN BEFORE MOVING NE OF THE AREA. WE EXPECT TO BREAK OUT
IN PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB VERY QUICKLY WITH BREEZY SRLY
WINDS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME CAPPED AS H850 TEMPS WARM TO THE
LOWER 20S C THROUGH MON. THESE TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S FOR SUN...AND MON IF THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.
THERE IS A LITTLE DIFFERENCE WITH REGARD TO THE FRONTAL TIMING LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THE FRONT...AND
WOULD SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SEVERE WX LATE MON AFTERNOON/
MON EVENING. THE EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND WOULD SUPPORT A FRONTAL
TIMING MORE FOR MON NIGHT WHICH WOULD NEGATE THE INSTABILITY
SLIGHTLY. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT TOO BAD IN THE 30-40 KNOT
RANGE...SO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. WE ARE SIDING WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING OF THE EURO...AND ARE CONCENTRATING THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR MON NIGHT. THE FRONT AND ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON.
WE WILL SEE A MARKED CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE WRN TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BUILDING THE
RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE LIFTING OUT TO THE NE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BE AMPLIFIED SOME BY ENERGY THAT WILL DIVE IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF IT FROM THE NW. TEMPS LOOK TO DROP BACK INTO THE 60S BY
MID TO LATE WEEK. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGHING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
CONVECTION IS FIRING JUST NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL
IOWA AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER THE TSRA WOULD
MAKE IT TO THE LAKE SHORE AROUND 7 AM. FARTHER NORTH...SCT SHRA
ARE MOVING EWD ALONG M-46. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CLIP
KMKG/KLAN PRIOR TO 12Z. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DURING THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS...WINDS AND WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1229 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
LATEST NAM12 SHOWS THAT LOLVL MOISTURE WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
PUSH NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WAA -SHRA/TSRA. HRRR MODEL
WHICH HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH FCSTD REFLECTIVITIES ALSO
SHOWS THIS SLOWER DEVELOPING TREND. HAVE TWEAKED WX/POP GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS THINKING. WDLY SCT -SHRA/TSRA DO PERSIST ACROSS THE
NERN PART OF THE CWA...BUT WITH DWPTS STILL IN THE 40S NEAR THE ND
BORDER...FEEL THAT VAST MAJORITY OF ECHOS REPRESENT VIRGA. BY 12Z
SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD PART OF CWA UNDER PCPN SHIELD...SO KEPT
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE AFT 09Z.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES SURROUND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH THEN
PERSIST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALSO LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE APPEAR TO BE A COUPLE OF FORECAST
PERIODS WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE /DEFORMATION ZONE-FORCED/
RAIN IS LIFTING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED /700HPA WAA AND
MOISTURE-ADVECTION SUPPORTED/ RAIN SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD MINNESOTA. SKIES
ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE CWA ON RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
TONIGHT...THE DEFORMATION RAIN OUT WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
LIFT UP INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE
RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SERN SODAK CONTINUE TO CHUG OFF INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY WANDER INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS /ELEVATED/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
TO REALLY GET GOING LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT OR AFTER 09Z...ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHEN A GOOD SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COINCIDE WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE LOW
LEVEL JET PROGGED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
THAT GOOD ZONE FOR ASCENT ALOFT POTENTIALLY STICKS AROUND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER AND EAST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. THIS IS STILL OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE WARM FRONT...SO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WILL STILL BE ELEVATED...IF ANY CAN DEVELOP. AND
AGAIN...WITH THE COMBINED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN
PLACE...A FEW STORMS COULD GROW TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. IT IS
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT THAT THE CONCERN OVER WARM FRONT PLACEMENT
CONTINUES. IF THE GFS /WHICH HAS BEEN TO THIS POINT VERY
CONSISTENT FROM RUN-TO-RUN/ PANS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THINGS
CLOSELY FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...FOR POTENTIALLY SUPER-CELLULAR CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO. MEANWHILE...NAM-
BASED SOLUTIONS ALL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOWCASE VERY WARM
MID-LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ON SATURDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
ANY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AT BAY OR KEEP THINGS CAPPED. IF A
STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THOUGH...IT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
BECOMING SEVERE RATHER QUICKLY.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH UP INTO NORTH DAKOTA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE CWA COULD INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AND BREEZY WITH LOW LEVEL CAA
AND SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED
AND KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS GOING MOST OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR MOST OF SATURDAY ON EASTERLY PBL WINDS...KEEPING TEMPS DOWN.
THE NORTHWARD SURGING WARM FRONT COULD ACTUALLY END UP KEEPING
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR PERHAPS WARMING THEM OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. INITIALLY IN WARMER AIR ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH THE CWA...WITH CAA WORKING INTO THE AREA ON ITS HEELS.
BETTER MIXING WINDS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S...BEFORE THINGS COOL BACK DOWN TO NORMAL
FOR LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ND.
MARGINAL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH LIMITED LLM
MAY RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU/SCT SPRINKLES FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS...ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LITTLE IN WAY OF INSTABILITY AROUND...SO
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
DROPS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S...WITH LOW MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 09Z BEFORE MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MOVE NORTH WITH AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. SCT SHRA ALONG
WITH ISOLD -TSRA IS PSBL AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST WITH OCNL IFR
CIGS IN THE KMBG/KABR/KATY TERMINALS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTH BEHIND WARMFRONT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
337 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
337 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND STRONG
RIDGING BUILDING UP FROM THE LOWER INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. IN-BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...A SUBTROPICAL STREAM OF
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IS EVIDENT FROM MEXICO UP
INTO IOWA. UNDERNEATH THIS SAME SUBTROPICAL STREAM AREA...A
SOUTHWEST 40-50 KT JET EXISTS AT 850MB PER PROFILER DATA...WHICH IS
RAPIDLY SENDING MOISTURE AND HEAT NORTHWARD. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB
TEMPS OF 20C OR MORE FROM NEAR TOPEKA KS SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST. COMPARE THESE TO 8C AT MPX AND 15C AT DVN. MOISTURE-WISE...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 65 TO 70F NEAR TOPEKA KS
SOUTHWARD. THE GRADIENT OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXISTS FROM
THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS GRADIENT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE ARE
WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHICH EXISTS JUST NORTH
OF I-70 IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM
WILL HELP TO BUILD THE RIDGING OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHWARD...HELPING ALSO TO BRING THE WARM FRONT NEAR I-70 NORTH.
MAIN QUESTION THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONT. THE CURRENT STREAM OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GRADIENT
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO WEAKEN SOME THIS MORNING AND SHIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEAKENING IS LIKELY CAUSED BY THE NORMAL
DIURNAL DIMINISHING OF LOW LEVEL JETS. THEREFORE...THINKING THAT
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING. ALSO...AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHIFT
WESTWARD WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE
DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ANOTHER ISSUE OF CONCERN IS
THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN IT. THIS
STREAM SHOULD SHIFT NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTHERN
IOWA BY 00Z...THIS SITUATION COULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE TO BE ELEVATED
BECAUSE SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY CAPPED (MLCIN
PROGGED AT 200 J/KG OR MORE). CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTWAVES PRODUCING
CONVECTION ABOVE THE CAP IS LOW. THERE IS INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
CAP...GENERALLY LESS THAN 700 J/KG. SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
CONVECTION...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED EITHER IF IT ENDS UP DRY.
SHOULD CONVECTION FIRE ABOVE THE CAP...THE 2-8 KM SHEAR (ESTIMATED
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR LAYER) IS LESS THAN 30 KT AT BEST. WITH WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS BETWEEN 3.5-4 KM...THEREFORE...WOULD ONLY EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN TO BE THE MAIN ISSUES. OVERALL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...KEPT THEM HIGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
GRADUAL LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES AGAIN...THOUGH THE GRADIENT LOOKS MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH FROM ALL MODELS. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCES...HIGHEST NORTH OF
I-90 AS NOTED BY THE 26.00Z NAM/GFS...BUT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
ANY ACTIVITY ENDS UP NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY THE
26.00Z GEM. BELIEVE THE 26.00Z ECMWF IS TOO FAR SOUTH AS IT SUGGESTS
QPF PRODUCED ON THE NOSE OF 925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT ECMWF
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TOO MUCH CAPPING LIFTED FROM 925 OR 850MB WHERE
QPF EXISTS. FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE. THEY ARE VERY TRICKY TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS...BUT AT THE SAME
TIME WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
00Z.
SUNDAY...HOT DAY STILL LOOKS ON TAP WITH THE WARM FRONT MOSTLY NORTH
OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED A LOW...20 PERCENT...CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
MORNING OVER TAYLOR COUNTY. THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL EXISTS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE THE RULE. 850MB TEMPS OF 20C OR MORE PLUS A BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WIND ALL SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S. SOME
LOCATIONS TOO COULD HIT THE MID 90S SINCE DEEP MIXING IS SUGGESTED
ON SOUNDINGS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS SEEM REASONABLE. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE MIXING...BUT STAYING UP
SOMEWHAT DUE TO RECENT RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE CORE OF IT
REACHING NORTHWEST ONTARIO AT 12Z TUE. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS
TROUGH...AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...LOOK TO COME ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS
THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THE SQUALL LINE
SHOULD REACH SOME OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ITS SPEED BEING INCREASED
SOMEWHAT BY COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. WHETHER IT IS SEVERE OR NOT BY
THE TIME IT GETS TO OUR FORECAST AREA IS A BIG QUESTION...SINCE THE
INSTABILITY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CERTAINLY THE SHEAR IS
PLENTIFUL...BOTH 0-3KM AND 0-6KM...SO IT IS JUST A MATTER OF
INSTABILITY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SQUALL LINE MAY HAVE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OR BROKEN UP INTO JUST ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION MONDAY MORNING DUE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY. AS
SUCH...REDUCED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR 12-18Z MONDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
INSTABILITY BUILDS...CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE ON THE FRONT. UNDERSCORE
MAY...SEEING THE NEW 26.00Z ECMWF WHICH IS MOSTLY DRY. AGAIN...
PLENTY OF SHEAR EXISTS SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY IS THAT THE FRONT
COULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME STORMS IF THEY FORM TURN
SEVERE. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. DRY SLOT COMES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TO END PRECIPITATION. IT NOW APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE...DRIED OUT THE
FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. WARM NIGHT LIKELY ON TAP SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS NEAR 70. WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUN ON
MONDAY AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO 10-14C AT MOST...HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN LOW TO MID 80S OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
337 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LONG TERM LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS OF SOME FORM OF TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SET UP ALLOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR FLOW. MOST OF THE SHORTWAVES
SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HEAD SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA...A PROBLEM NOTED YESTERDAY. ONE CONCERN TO WATCH OUT FOR IS
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND IF ANY DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CAN
FORM. THE 26.00Z ECMWF HINTS AT THIS ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ITS
PREVIOUS RUN DID NOT. FOR NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS APPROACH
WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN AN ENTIRELY DRY FORECAST...EXCLUDING A
LITTLE LIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ON TUESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT DUE TO THE
TROUGHING. SOMETHING AGAIN TO WATCH OUT FOR IS ANY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
AT SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS FOR POSSIBLE FROST FORMATION.
RIGHT NOW...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE NIGHTS TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...
1135 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
LATEST CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST WI IS BEING
DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT. MESO MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LIFT NORTH. THE BULK OF THE STRONGER SHRA/TS
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF KRST/KLSE IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT PERIODIC -SHRA
WITH ISOLATED TS LOOKS REASONABLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z SAT RATHER SHAKY. THE MODELS PROPOSE A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...SOME WITH PERIODS OF TSRA AND SOME DRY. THE
WET ONES SEEM TO BANK ON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCV MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...TAPPING INTO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE A STRONG CAP. OTHERS KEEP ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOSTLY WEST/NORTH...AND THUS KRST/KLSE WOULD BE DRY. FEELING RIGHT
NOW IS THE DRIER SOLUTION HAS MORE GOING FOR IT. THE RAP HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE PCPN AND FORCING MECHANISMS RIGHT NOW...AND THESE
WEAKEN AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LIFTS NORTH
TOWARD 12Z. THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL MCS IN THE
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD THEN RIDE INTO CENTRAL MN.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND...WITH CONTINUE THE -SHRA VCTS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z FOR KRST/KLSE...WITH VFR CIGS AND MOSTLY UNAFFECTED VSBYS. OF
COURSE...ANY DOWN POUR COULD LEAD TO A 2-4SM VSBY...BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF IF IT WOULD OCCUR.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE EAST
SOUTHEAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON GUSTS EVEN WITH A
SIZABLE INVERSION A LOFT.
OBVIOUSLY...SHORT TERM TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
TODAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
337 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
346 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
AT 3 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG 600-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA...AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...THERE IS A MORE
ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG 800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LATEST RAP ALONG WITH SEVERAL OF THE MESO MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE 600-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL SHIFT NORTH TOWARD
THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...AND BE LOCATED BETWEEN
THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 800-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT. THESE
FRONTOGENESIS BANDS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES LOOK LOW FOR LATE TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
THE AREAS OF ELEVATED BANDS OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES GRADUALLY CLIMB DURING THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEY ARE
RUNNING 1 TO 3K ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...
AND FROM 3 TO 4K ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER IS VERY HIGH ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE BOTH THE SURFACE BASED
AND ML CINS INCREASE SO MUCH THAT THE CONVECTION BECOMES ELEVATED.
BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE CAPES WILL BE LOCATED ABOVE
10K FEET. WITH THE STORMS BEING SO ELEVATED...THIS ELIMINATES THE
SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KILOMETERS WHICH TAKES VERY FAVORABLE BULK
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND MAKES THEM LESS FAVORABLE. TAKING ALL OF
THIS INTO ACCOUNT...THINKING THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS
TO BE SLIGHT WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
ON SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING...AND THEN
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. VERY WARM MOVES IN ALOFT. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 22C IN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND TO 24C
IN THE NAM/WRF. IF SOILS DO NOT MOISTEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE A VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH THE LOWER AND MID 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...AND NEAR 90 ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
IN ADDITION TO SUNDAYS TEMPERATURES BEING A BIT PROBLEMATIC...THE
DEW POINTS MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S. HOWEVER THE BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS BEEN ADVECTED
OFF OF THE HIGH PLAINS. MIXING DOWN THIS DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTS IN
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON HOW FAR EAST
WILL THE COLD FRONT GET. ALSO THE CAPES MAY BE OVER DONE IF THE
DEW POINTS ARE TOO HIGH. WHILE THE INSTABILITY MAY BE IN
QUESTION...THE 0-6KM SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. IF SEVERE WEATHER HAPPENED TO
DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY
346 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MEMORIAL DAY. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...THE CAPES LOOK TO BE LOW WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THIS WOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW ML CAPES
TO CLIMB INTO THE 1 TO 2K RANGE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS...A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE ACROSS WISCONSIN. MAIN THREATS LOOK TO LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
&&
.AVIATION...
1135 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
LATEST CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST WI IS BEING
DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT. MESO MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LIFT NORTH. THE BULK OF THE STRONGER SHRA/TS
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF KRST/KLSE IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT PERIODIC -SHRA
WITH ISOLATED TS LOOKS REASONABLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z SAT RATHER SHAKY. THE MODELS PROPOSE A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...SOME WITH PERIODS OF TSRA AND SOME DRY. THE
WET ONES SEEM TO BANK ON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCV MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...TAPPING INTO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE A STRONG CAP. OTHERS KEEP ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOSTLY WEST/NORTH...AND THUS KRST/KLSE WOULD BE DRY. FEELING RIGHT
NOW IS THE DRIER SOLUTION HAS MORE GOING FOR IT. THE RAP HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE PCPN AND FORCING MECHANISMS RIGHT NOW...AND THESE
WEAKEN AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LIFTS NORTH
TOWARD 12Z. THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL MCS IN THE
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD THEN RIDE INTO CENTRAL MN.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND...WITH CONTINUE THE -SHRA VCTS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z FOR KRST/KLSE...WITH VFR CIGS AND MOSTLY UNAFFECTED VSBYS. OF
COURSE...ANY DOWN POUR COULD LEAD TO A 2-4SM VSBY...BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF IF IT WOULD OCCUR.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE EAST
SOUTHEAST. LOOK FOR HIGHER LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON GUSTS EVEN WITH A
SIZABLE INVERSION A LOFT.
OBVIOUSLY...SHORT TERM TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
TODAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
251 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1049 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.UPDATE...THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
1.4 INCHES WITH DRIER AIR JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
OVERALL, THE AIR MASS HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BECOME A BIT MORE
STABLE, IN PART DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, THAT ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN
COVERAGE A BIT, WHICH IS TYPICAL IN THESE REGIMES. STILL, WE
EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST. IT APPEARS THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE SHOULD WORK TO KEEP THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST MAINLY
DRY. H5 TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -10C AND WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT,
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL. WE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY, TO 30 PERCENT,
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND OVER MUCH OF COLLIER,
MAINLAND MONROE, AND PORTIONS OF HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF, WHICH PERFORMED QUITE WELL YESTERDAY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END AFTER 00Z, BUT COULD LINGER IN A FEW
AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012/
AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT 5 KTS OR LESS
FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, DECIDED TO
MENTION VCSH FOR EASTERN TERMINALS FROM KFLL NORTH DURING THE
MORNING HOURS DUE TO RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS WHETHER
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PROXIMITY OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...BELIEVE THAT SUBSIDENCE AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WL TEND
TO INHIBIT (OR KEEP TO A MINIMUM) SHWRS/TSTMS ACTIVITY. EVEN, IF
ANY STORM DEVELOPS, THE FORECAST STEERING FLOW SUGGEST A MOVEMENT
MAINLY TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...THEREFORE DECIDED NOT TO MENTION ANY PRECIP IN THE TAFS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WL ALSO EXPECT LOCAL WIND REGIME TO BE
DOMINATED BY LOCAL SEA BREEZES WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE ERN
TERMINALS AND W-NW WINDS AT KAPF FROM MID-MORNING ON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012/
.CORRECTION TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION TO REPLACE TROPICAL STORM
BERYL WITH SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY AND APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST TRACK THEREAFTER.
IN ADDITION TO SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL THE OTHER MAJOR SYNOPTIC
FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH MOST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS SUCH THAT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS FLORIDA.
THAT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS TODAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. BUT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST AS FORECAST THEN LOW LEVEL MASS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF BERYL
COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS. BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE NAM BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. BUT IF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THEN THIS SCENARIO COULD BE A BIT MORE REALISTIC.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THE
UNCERTAINTY OBVIOUSLY CONTINUES WITH THE REGIONAL WEATHER
AFFECTED BY THE EVOLUTION OF THE REMAINS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
BERYL AS IT MOVES INLAND AND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COULD BE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COULD STILL LINGER AS WELL WITH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK.
MARINE...
THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES GULF STREAM SEAS EAST OF PALM BEACH
FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 6 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
DECREASING EARLY MONDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN
BOTH THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST.
MARINE BUOYS OFF THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL CURRENTLY INDICATE
A SWELL NEAR 5 FEET WELL AHEAD OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL BUT BY
THE TIME IT MIGHT REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY
ONLY A SMALL SWELL WOULD BE LEFT.
THE LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
COULD GENERATE A LONG PERIOD SWELL THAT COULD IMPACT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE LOCAL NWPS MARINE
FORECAST MODEL INDICATED A LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SMALL SWELL
ENTERING THE WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLY SUNDAY THEN
FORECAST TO BUILD TO A 2 TO 3 FOOT SWELL LATER ON SUNDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY MONDAY. OBVIOUSLY THIS SCENARIO WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 74 88 73 / 20 20 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 75 88 74 / 20 20 50 30
MIAMI 89 74 89 75 / 20 20 40 30
NAPLES 89 74 86 74 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...14/MJB
AVIATION/RADAR...59/RM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1200 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AREA WILL MOVE NORTH OF M-46 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
ISSUED A FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
CROSSING LAKE MI. THE RAIN HAS BEEN DISSIPATING. BUT IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION SOUTH OF A HART
TO ST JOHNS LINE THIS AFTERNOON. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME SUN BY MID AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF HOURS OF FILTERED SUN
COULD STILL ALLOW FOR THE 70S THAT WE HAVE GOING FOR HIGHS. I DID
UPDATE THE GRAPHICAST TO MENTION THAT THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY
WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 4 PM.
LOOKING UPSTREAM ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS TRACKING ALONG THE
GRADIENT OF STEEPER MID LEVE LAPSE RATES NEAR MINNEAPOLIS. THIS
GRADIENT DOES RUN INTO LOWER MI. SO AN ELEVATED RISK EXISTS FOR
THE STORMS TO ROLL INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. CURRENT TIMING FOR THEM TO
ARRIVE ON THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WOULD BE AROUND 00Z SUN. HOWEVER
THE STORMS COULD WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING MI. THIS IS
WHAT THE HRRR RUC IS SHOWING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE
SITUATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECAYING MCS THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGHER POPS...LOWER TEMPS. WARMEST
TEMPS TODAY MAY BE FROM LDM TO HARRISON IF SOME SUN UP THERE. THE
RADAR TRENDS IN SRN WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE HEAVIER CELLS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MCS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND MISS SW LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR RUC SAYS OTHERWISE. WILL KEEP MONITORING THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. THE FORECAST FOR NOW WILL FEATURE LESS SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE HEAT SUNDAY AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...MAINLY NON-SEVERE.
* HOT SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES UPPER 90S SOUTH ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 ACROSS IOWA AND NRN IL. IT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT AND CLOSE TO THE H8 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES IS A FAVORED AREA OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND THIS MORNING
IS NO
EXCEPTION. THIS PCPN WAS GENERALLY MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING A BIT
AS IT APPROACHED LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS ISN/T TOO SURPRISING GIVEN
THAT THE LLJ IS VERY WEAK IN THIS AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
PCPN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT HITS THE LAKE SHORE AROUND 11Z MAINLY
NORTH OF I-96.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...INITIALLY ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE SFC LOW DRIVING
THIS FRONT NWD IS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SO WE SHOULD SEE THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SVR STORMS WELL WEST OF THE CWA WHERE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE GREATEST. THAT SAID...AN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL FUNNEL SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS NRN IL/SRN
LWR TODAY. THESE WAVES WILL ACT TO INCREASE COVERAGE AFTER 18Z
TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO COVER THIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND SO SHOULD MUCH
OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY. WE/LL BECOME INCREASINGLY CAPPED AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM IS TIMING OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT MAIN BATCH
OF CONVECTION TO BE ARRIVING IN THE EVENING. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND SLOWER EURO AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. FRONT IS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH MORNING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES THEN DRY AND COOLER FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE 00Z EURO HAS
LOST THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN INDICATED FORMING AT THE SOUTHERN
END OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES
BAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI / NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING AS IT PRESSES EAST AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. CIGS AND VISBYS WITHIN THIS BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN AROUND 4K-5K FT WITH REDUCTIONS TO 5 MILES
OR LESS AT TIMES. WILL FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY FOR
AZO AND BTL AS THIS RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. EXPECTING
OCCASIONAL SHRA WITH VCTS TODAY WITH LOW CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VISBYS TO IFR LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHRA AND TSRA.
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA IS POSSIBLE AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. I BELIEVE THE THREAT WOULD
BE MORE FOR MKG/GRR/LAN AND INTO NORTHERN MI WITH THAT NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
THE NEARSHORE FORECAST FEATURE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WAVES UNDER 3 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
927 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AREA WILL MOVE NORTH OF M-46 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECAYING MCS THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGHER POPS...LOWER TEMPS. WARMEST
TEMPS TODAY MAY BE FROM LDM TO HARRISON IF SOME SUN UP THERE. THE
RADAR TRENDS IN SRN WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE HEAVIER CELLS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MCS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND MISS SW LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR RUC SAYS OTHERWISE. WILL KEEP MONITORING THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. THE FORECAST FOR NOW WILL FEATURE LESS SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE HEAT SUNDAY AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...MAINLY NON-SEVERE.
* HOT SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES UPPER 90S SOUTH ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 ACROSS IOWA AND NRN IL. IT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT AND CLOSE TO THE H8 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES IS A FAVORED AREA OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND THIS MORNING
IS NO
EXCEPTION. THIS PCPN WAS GENERALLY MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING A BIT
AS IT APPROACHED LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS ISN/T TOO SURPRISING GIVEN
THAT THE LLJ IS VERY WEAK IN THIS AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
PCPN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT HITS THE LAKE SHORE AROUND 11Z MAINLY
NORTH OF I-96.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...INITIALLY ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE SFC LOW DRIVING
THIS FRONT NWD IS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SO WE SHOULD SEE THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SVR STORMS WELL WEST OF THE CWA WHERE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE GREATEST. THAT SAID...AN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL FUNNEL SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS NRN IL/SRN
LWR TODAY. THESE WAVES WILL ACT TO INCREASE COVERAGE AFTER 18Z
TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO COVER THIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND SO SHOULD MUCH
OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY. WE/LL BECOME INCREASINGLY CAPPED AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM IS TIMING OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT MAIN BATCH
OF CONVECTION TO BE ARRIVING IN THE EVENING. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND SLOWER EURO AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. FRONT IS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH MORNING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES THEN DRY AND COOLER FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE 00Z EURO HAS
LOST THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN INDICATED FORMING AT THE SOUTHERN
END OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES
BAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI / NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING AS IT PRESSES EAST AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. CIGS AND VISBYS WITHIN THIS BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN AROUND 4K-5K FT WITH REDUCTIONS TO 5 MILES
OR LESS AT TIMES. WILL FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY FOR
AZO AND BTL AS THIS RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. EXPECTING
OCCASIONAL SHRA WITH VCTS TODAY WITH LOW CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VISBYS TO IFR LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHRA AND TSRA.
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA IS POSSIBLE AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. I BELIEVE THE THREAT WOULD
BE MORE FOR MKG/GRR/LAN AND INTO NORTHERN MI WITH THAT NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
THE NEARSHORE FORECAST FEATURE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WAVES UNDER 3 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AREA WILL MOVE NORTH OF M-46 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE HEAT SUNDAY AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...MAINLY NON-SEVERE.
* HOT SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES UPPER 90S SOUTH ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 ACROSS IOWA AND NRN IL. IT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT AND CLOSE TO THE H8 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES IS A FAVORED AREA OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND THIS MORNING
IS NO
EXCEPTION. THIS PCPN WAS GENERALLY MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING A BIT
AS IT APPROACHED LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS ISN/T TOO SURPRISING GIVEN
THAT THE LLJ IS VERY WEAK IN THIS AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
PCPN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT HITS THE LAKE SHORE AROUND 11Z MAINLY
NORTH OF I-96.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...INITIALLY ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE SFC LOW DRIVING
THIS FRONT NWD IS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SO WE SHOULD SEE THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SVR STORMS WELL WEST OF THE CWA WHERE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE GREATEST. THAT SAID...AN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL FUNNEL SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS NRN IL/SRN
LWR TODAY. THESE WAVES WILL ACT TO INCREASE COVERAGE AFTER 18Z
TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO COVER THIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND SO SHOULD MUCH
OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY. WE/LL BECOME INCREASINGLY CAPPED AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM IS TIMING OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT MAIN BATCH
OF CONVECTION TO BE ARRIVING IN THE EVENING. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND SLOWER EURO AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. FRONT IS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH MORNING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES THEN DRY AND COOLER FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE 00Z EURO HAS
LOST THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN INDICATED FORMING AT THE SOUTHERN
END OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES
BAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI / NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING AS IT PRESSES EAST AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. CIGS AND VISBYS WITHIN THIS BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN AROUND 4K-5K FT WITH REDUCTIONS TO 5 MILES
OR LESS AT TIMES. WILL FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY FOR
AZO AND BTL AS THIS RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. EXPECTING
OCCASIONAL SHRA WITH VCTS TODAY WITH LOW CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VISBYS TO IFR LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHRA AND TSRA.
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA IS POSSIBLE AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. I BELIEVE THE THREAT WOULD
BE MORE FOR MKG/GRR/LAN AND INTO NORTHERN MI WITH THAT NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DURING THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS...WINDS AND WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
615 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
337 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND STRONG
RIDGING BUILDING UP FROM THE LOWER INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. IN-BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...A SUBTROPICAL STREAM OF
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IS EVIDENT FROM MEXICO UP
INTO IOWA. UNDERNEATH THIS SAME SUBTROPICAL STREAM AREA...A
SOUTHWEST 40-50 KT JET EXISTS AT 850MB PER PROFILER DATA...WHICH IS
RAPIDLY SENDING MOISTURE AND HEAT NORTHWARD. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB
TEMPS OF 20C OR MORE FROM NEAR TOPEKA KS SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST. COMPARE THESE TO 8C AT MPX AND 15C AT DVN. MOISTURE-WISE...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 65 TO 70F NEAR TOPEKA KS
SOUTHWARD. THE GRADIENT OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXISTS FROM
THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS GRADIENT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE ARE
WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHICH EXISTS JUST NORTH
OF I-70 IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM
WILL HELP TO BUILD THE RIDGING OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHWARD...HELPING ALSO TO BRING THE WARM FRONT NEAR I-70 NORTH.
MAIN QUESTION THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONT. THE CURRENT STREAM OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GRADIENT
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO WEAKEN SOME THIS MORNING AND SHIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEAKENING IS LIKELY CAUSED BY THE NORMAL
DIURNAL DIMINISHING OF LOW LEVEL JETS. THEREFORE...THINKING THAT
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING. ALSO...AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHIFT
WESTWARD WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE
DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ANOTHER ISSUE OF CONCERN IS
THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN IT. THIS
STREAM SHOULD SHIFT NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTHERN
IOWA BY 00Z...THIS SITUATION COULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE TO BE ELEVATED
BECAUSE SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY CAPPED (MLCIN
PROGGED AT 200 J/KG OR MORE). CONFIDENCE ON THE SHORTWAVES PRODUCING
CONVECTION ABOVE THE CAP IS LOW. THERE IS INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
CAP...GENERALLY LESS THAN 700 J/KG. SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
CONVECTION...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED EITHER IF IT ENDS UP DRY.
SHOULD CONVECTION FIRE ABOVE THE CAP...THE 2-8 KM SHEAR (ESTIMATED
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR LAYER) IS LESS THAN 30 KT AT BEST. WITH WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS BETWEEN 3.5-4 KM...THEREFORE...WOULD ONLY EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN TO BE THE MAIN ISSUES. OVERALL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...KEPT THEM HIGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
GRADUAL LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES AGAIN...THOUGH THE GRADIENT LOOKS MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH FROM ALL MODELS. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCES...HIGHEST NORTH OF
I-90 AS NOTED BY THE 26.00Z NAM/GFS...BUT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
ANY ACTIVITY ENDS UP NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY THE
26.00Z GEM. BELIEVE THE 26.00Z ECMWF IS TOO FAR SOUTH AS IT SUGGESTS
QPF PRODUCED ON THE NOSE OF 925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT ECMWF
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TOO MUCH CAPPING LIFTED FROM 925 OR 850MB WHERE
QPF EXISTS. FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE. THEY ARE VERY TRICKY TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS...BUT AT THE SAME
TIME WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
00Z.
SUNDAY...HOT DAY STILL LOOKS ON TAP WITH THE WARM FRONT MOSTLY NORTH
OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED A LOW...20 PERCENT...CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
MORNING OVER TAYLOR COUNTY. THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL EXISTS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE THE RULE. 850MB TEMPS OF 20C OR MORE PLUS A BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WIND ALL SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S. SOME
LOCATIONS TOO COULD HIT THE MID 90S SINCE DEEP MIXING IS SUGGESTED
ON SOUNDINGS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS SEEM REASONABLE. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE MIXING...BUT STAYING UP
SOMEWHAT DUE TO RECENT RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE CORE OF IT
REACHING NORTHWEST ONTARIO AT 12Z TUE. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS
TROUGH...AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...LOOK TO COME ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS
THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THE SQUALL LINE
SHOULD REACH SOME OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ITS SPEED BEING INCREASED
SOMEWHAT BY COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. WHETHER IT IS SEVERE OR NOT BY
THE TIME IT GETS TO OUR FORECAST AREA IS A BIG QUESTION...SINCE THE
INSTABILITY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CERTAINLY THE SHEAR IS
PLENTIFUL...BOTH 0-3KM AND 0-6KM...SO IT IS JUST A MATTER OF
INSTABILITY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SQUALL LINE MAY HAVE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OR BROKEN UP INTO JUST ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION MONDAY MORNING DUE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY. AS
SUCH...REDUCED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR 12-18Z MONDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
INSTABILITY BUILDS...CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE ON THE FRONT. UNDERSCORE
MAY...SEEING THE NEW 26.00Z ECMWF WHICH IS MOSTLY DRY. AGAIN...
PLENTY OF SHEAR EXISTS SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY IS THAT THE FRONT
COULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME STORMS IF THEY FORM TURN
SEVERE. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. DRY SLOT COMES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TO END PRECIPITATION. IT NOW APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE...DRIED OUT THE
FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. WARM NIGHT LIKELY ON TAP SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS NEAR 70. WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUN ON
MONDAY AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO 10-14C AT MOST...HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN LOW TO MID 80S OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
337 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LONG TERM LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS OF SOME FORM OF TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SET UP ALLOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR FLOW. MOST OF THE SHORTWAVES
SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HEAD SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA...A PROBLEM NOTED YESTERDAY. ONE CONCERN TO WATCH OUT FOR IS
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND IF ANY DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CAN
FORM. THE 26.00Z ECMWF HINTS AT THIS ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ITS
PREVIOUS RUN DID NOT. FOR NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS APPROACH
WHICH BASICALLY RESULTS IN AN ENTIRELY DRY FORECAST...EXCLUDING A
LITTLE LIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ON TUESDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT DUE TO THE
TROUGHING. SOMETHING AGAIN TO WATCH OUT FOR IS ANY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
AT SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS FOR POSSIBLE FROST FORMATION.
RIGHT NOW...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE NIGHTS TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
614 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES
BY 15Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 5 TO 10 KFT RANGE. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN
IOWA...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONFIDENCE LOW
ON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRONG CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MUCH WARMER AIR MOVING IN
AROUND THE 800 MB LAYER...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE CAPPING
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 12 TO 16 KT RANGE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA. FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EDGING INTO THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING/DRYING BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT TO INHIBIT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE NEXT SET OF FORECAST MODEL RUNS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
337 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
337 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.
A STRONG UPR LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACRS ERN ID AND WRN WY TONIGHT...AND MOVING INTO EASTERN MT
BY SUN AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG WINDS OVR THE AREA WL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND WL THEN DECREASE. HOWEVER...MANY AREAS WL CONTINUE TO SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THAT UPR LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE STRONG WINDS...AND
LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS IN TELLER AND FREMONT COUNTIES AND OVER
THE RAMPART RANGE WL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE EVENING IN THESE AREAS...SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS NR THE KS BORDER HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...BUT THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 SHOW THE DRY
LINE WITH LOWER 50 DEW POINTS BACKING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF CO THIS EVENING...WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
800 J/KG. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35
KTS. SO WL KEEP IN ISOLD TO SCT POPS OVR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
THE HRRR ALSO KEEP SOME PCPN CHANCES IN THAT AREA UNTIL AT LEAST
06Z. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE A SEVERE STORM OUT
THERE WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTS NR 60 MPH.
ONE MINOR CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THAT IF THE WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT...THE TEMPS COULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING.
ON SUNDAY THE UPR TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS CO...WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. IT AGAIN
LOOKS LIKE WIND AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA
OVER TELLER AND FREMONT COUNTIES AND THE RAMPART RANGE...ALONG WITH
THE CONTINUED DRY FUELS...THUS WL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO
A RED FLAG WARNING.
WITH THAT TROF BRINGING COOLER AIR OVR THE AREA ON SUN...HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER. THAT SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROBABLY BRING SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL CO MTS SO WL LEAVE
THAT IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM
PASSES ACROSS MT AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRUSHING THE STATE TO
THE NORTH AND PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE SOME BRISK WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THEN RELAXES FOR TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT OR
NORTHERLY SURGE IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS MON
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE DRY AND A NON-PLAYER IN THE
EXPECTED TEMPS...SO LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE PLAINS...AND IN THE 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY MT REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN SYSTEM DROPS DOWN INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE US...AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DESERT US. LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST FRI IS EXPECTED TO
KEP AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SOME CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND E PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH
25 TO 35 KTS GENERALLY AT THE TAF SITES...AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS.
THESE SHOULD DECREASE THRU THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
AT KCOS AND KPUB TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT KALS WL HAVE REDUCED VSBY
THIS EVENING DUE TO BLOWING DUST. ONCE THE WINDS DECREASE THE
BLOWING DUST WL STOP...PROBABLY BY 02-03Z AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ON
SUNDAY FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY 20-30 KTS AND
SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-060-
065>071-073>076-080-082-084>089-093>099.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ221-222.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ221-222.
&&
$$
28/27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
334 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012
TONIGHT...STRONG WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING. SATELLITE...ANALYSIS AND THE RUC SHOW THE FRONT THROUGH
CENTRAL UT AND APPROACHING KSLC. THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO
THE FLOW ALOFT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. PROJECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE MOAB AT 430 PM...GRAND
JUNCTION AT ABOUT 600 PM...RIFLE AT ABOUT 700 PM AND ASPEN/VAIL
ABOUT 800 PM. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH
FROPA AND BEGIN DECREASING ABOUT AN HOUR AFTER FROPA. THE RED FLAG
WARNING AND HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE PROBABLY UNTIL
EXPIRATION TIME. VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS BEING PRODUCED BY THIS
SYSTEM IN CO OR UT...ONLY CLOSE TO THE LOW CENTER OVER EXTREME
NORTHERN UT. HAVE DECREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN AS A RESULT.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RELAX...THOUGH THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD
OVERPOWER THE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE VEERING TO BECOME
WEST-SOUTHWEST. ON SUNDAY THE MAIN LOW WILL PASS FAR NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AND
BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE AREA
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR UP NORTH
WILL ADVECT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES. ON
MONDAY... ANOTHER VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRUSH
THE FAR NORTH ON MONDAY BUT CARRY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT FOR
MAINLY JUST SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTH OF I-70. IT WILL ALSO
KEEP SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS PRESENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH TEMPS STARTING A
WARMING TREND.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012
TUESDAY...ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT CRUISES
ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...BUT IT SHOULD BRING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS ONCE
AGAIN. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DURING THESE PERIODS...TODAY`S GFS
IS FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WITH TUE NIGHT`S WEAK SHORTWAVE STAYING
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. JUST A REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO
BRUSH OUR NORTHEAST CORNER THROUGH EARLY WED. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER CA/NV BY THU. THE 12Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY`S 12Z EC AS IT DEVELOPS A LOW OFF NORTHERN BAJA
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. HOWEVER TODAY`S 12Z EC PUTS
THIS LOW FARTHER TO THE EAST. THE CANADIAN ALSO SHOWS A SIMILAR
PATTERN...BUT HAS THE MOST WESTERLY SOLUTION. THE OTHER DIFFERENCE
FROM YESTERDAY...IS THAT THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS JUST
NOT AS AMPLIFIED IN TODAY`S RUNS. MODELS PRETTY MUCH AGREE THAT WE
WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THU NIGHT
AND PROBABLY INTO FRI. THEN THE FLATTENED RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
THROUGH SAT. MODELS INDICATE THAT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE RIDGE WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY
BASED THUNDERSTORMS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...FAVORING THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL READINGS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012
STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 60 MPH IN SOME VALLEYS...AND OVER 75 MPH AT
EXPOSED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THEREFORE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF AND ALONG RIDGES AND PEAKS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH HAZE FROM BLOWING DUST
AND SAND WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES AT TIMES INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR
SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2012
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF
WESTERN COLORADO EXCEPT FIRE ZONE 291 /NORTHERN SAN JUAN MTNS/.
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE BETTER TONIGHT DUE TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH STILL ONLY MODERATE IN MANY PLACES DUE TO
THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NO WHERE
NEAR THE WIND OF TODAY. ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EARLY
NEXT WEEK APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>014-
017>023.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203-207-
290-292-293.
UT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022>025-
027>029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM......CC
LONG TERM...... JAD/ELH
AVIATION........EH
FIRE WEATHER... JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE
EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER,
ITS OVERALL ORIENTATION IS RESULTING IN A BIT OF LINGERING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID
AND LOW LEVELS. DESPITE THESE FACTORS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST. IT APPEARS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD WORK TO KEEP THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST MAINLY DRY WITH THE STEERING FLOW TAKING ANY STORMS TO THE
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST. H5 TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -10C AND WITH A DRY
LAYER ALOFT, STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. 20-30 POPS ARE
SUFFICIENT FOR MOST AREAS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF, WHICH
SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END AFTER 00Z, BUT COULD LINGER IN A
FEW AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, BUT MAINLY OVER
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS, PARTICULARLY OFF THE PALM BEACH
COAST. OTHERWISE, AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND PERHAPS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST, SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AFTER 06Z.
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TOTAL ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, H85 WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTION
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BERYL (OR ITS REMNANTS) WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE PUSHING WEST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
ULTIMATELY TAKING A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST SOMETIME MONDAY.
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS EVEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY, WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTH AND EAST.
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID
WEEK PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THIS VERIFIES, A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT SATURDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
IT.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING ONSHORE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND GULF COAST SEA BREEZE ABOUT TO BEGIN
MOVING ONSHORE AS WELL. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ON FAR OUTER EDGE OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. EXPECTED
MOVEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION TO THE SSW-SW MEANS THAT SOME TSTMS
COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO FLL-MIA AREA TERMINALS TO WARRANT A
VCTS MENTION THROUGH 03Z, BUT FEEL THAT TSTMS SHOULD NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT THESE SITES. SAME APPLIES FOR KAPF ALTHOUGH GULF COAST HAS
A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS THAN THE EAST COAST. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WITH PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS/FOG INTERIOR TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WIND FLOW
MORE FROM SW ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD FOCUS EARLY AFTERNOON TSTMS
CLOSER TO E COAST. /MOLLEDA
&&
.MARINE...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL PUSH A NORTH-NORTHEAST
SWELL INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
IT STILL APPEARS THE SWELL WILL PEAK AROUND 3 FEET OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND PATH OF BERYL. CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALSO DETERIORATE WITH INCREASING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 87 73 87 / 20 50 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 88 74 87 / 20 50 40 40
MIAMI 74 89 73 88 / 20 40 30 40
NAPLES 74 89 74 88 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...14/MJB
AVIATION/RADAR...59/RM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
528 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
338 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH A WARMING TREND STILL ON TRACK
AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
ONGOING CHANGES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE WARM
FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH AREAS NEAR STERLING IN
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS SOUTHEAST TO AREAS NEAR KANKAKEE. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S NORTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH
THIS EVENING WITH STEADY IF NOT WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS...PAVING THE WAY FOR A WARM NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
CONTINUE WITH MAIN THERMAL AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY
BRINGING 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C ACROSS THE CWA. THIS COINCIDING
WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING OF SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL ALL AID IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S ON SUNDAY...WITH STRONG FLOW KEEPING ANY LAKE BREEZE AT BAY
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT NOT
QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER ISSUES WITH SURFACE WAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED EAST ACROSS
AREAS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...THE CWA HAS REMAINED
MOSTLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS DRY TREND THUS FAR...STILL
FEEL THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TO OBSERVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STILL AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT REMAINING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY AS BEEN
USELESS WITH MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO GENERATE CONVECTION WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN NONE...AND MOSTLY LIKELY NOT BE. DESPITE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
AND SURGE OF GOOD MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY NORTH...WARMING ALOFT
HAS LIMITED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING
THAT 700MB TEMPS OF 10-12C ARE PUSHING OVERHEAD...WHICH IN THE
ABSENCE OF BOTH GOOD SURFACE LIFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...HAS
LIMITED ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THIS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH THE SHOWERS WHICH HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ACROSS
IOWA...WHICH ARE ALREADY DISSIPATING. FEEL THAT THE ONLY CHANCE
FOR THE CWA TO OBSERVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS AND
FEEL THAT THIS IS THE AREA WHICH MAY HELP STEER CONVECTION
SOUTHWARD. AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THIS COULD PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WHICH COULD THEN INTERACT WITH A NORTHWARD SURGING
WARM FRONT. SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
COMPLEX HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO SEEM
PROBABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC DETAILS COMING INTO BETTER LINE.
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH COULD HELP FEED THIS DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN
HELP STEER ANY CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT
WERE TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AN
OUTSIDE WIND AND HAIL THREAT COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AS STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN. RIGHT NOW...THIS IS THE LOW END SOLUTION
BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.CLIMATE...
...RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MAY 27TH...
529 PM...CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH AT ORD OF 96 ON
SUNDAY...MAY 27TH. THE ORD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 94 SET IN
1911.
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF 96 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN CHICAGO IS ON
MAY 31ST 1934 WHEN A RECORD HIGH OF 98 WAS REACHED. THUS...IF THE
TEMPERATURE DOES REACH 96 OR HIGHER ON SUNDAY MAY 27TH...IT
WILL BECOME THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RECORD HIGH OF 95 AT RFD ON SUNDAY...MAY
27TH. THE RFD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 92 SET IN 1978.
A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR THE
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS BELOW. DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...REACHING RECORD HIGHS ON MONDAY IS
STILL POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN REACHING RECORD HIGHS
ON SUNDAY.
RECORDS FOR ORD...
HIGH TEMP/YEAR HIGH MINIMUM TEMP/YEAR
SUN MAY 27TH 94/1911 75/1911
MON MAY 28TH 93/1977 74/2006
RECORDS FOR RFD...
SUN MAY 27TH 92/1978 71/1914
MON MAY 28TH 93/2006 69/2006
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
451 PM CDT
AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS
EVENING...IT WILL HELP USHER A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS AND MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
DESPITE HIGHER MOISTURE AIR SHIFTING NORTH...COULD STILL OBSERVE
SOME LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND THE 35 PERCENT AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS STRONG
MIXING AND HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH...NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE TOO STRONG IN THESE
LOCATIONS WITH 20FT WINDS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF AT 10-15MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TEMP AND DEWPOINT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM. NONETHELESS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30-35 PERCENT ARE STILL EXPECTED. STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WITH 20FT WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 20MPH.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
20 KT POSSIBLE TIL 00Z OR SO.
* LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING.
* SOUTH WINDS TO START SUNDAY BECOMING GUSTY 20-25 KT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THANKS TO THE
PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE A SECOND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THAT THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY OR
MID EVENING BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY MID OR LATE EVENING.
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE WARM FRONT THAT IS SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND IT APPEARS ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL BE STALLED
BY THE COOLING THAT HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE LAKE. A PORTION OF THE
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE SECTIONS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
REMAINS HUNG UP SO RFD COULD SEE A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS FIRST.
WILL CONTINUE MONITOR TIMING OF WIND TRENDS INTO THE EVENING.
SHRA/TSRA STILL POSSIBLE BUT CHANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW. MOST
FAVORED AREA WOULD BE FROM RFD TO PWK AND POINTS NORTH INTO MID
EVENING.
MDB
FROM 18Z...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA STRETCHING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IL/IN. WINDS NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS
CONTINUES TO BE EASTERLY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPR
TEENS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. VISIBLE
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A NARROW CHANNEL OF A CUMULUS
FIELDS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO REMAIN RATHER FLAT. SOME BETTER
GROWTH IN THE CLOUDS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI/FAR
NORTHERN IA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS POSED SOME CONCERN FOR
NORTHERN IL AIRFIELDS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE...HOWEVER THE GENERAL
THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL SLIDE EAST AND AVOID MOST OF THE
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS...IF NOT ALL OF THEM. AT THIS
TIME HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST...WITH JUST A FEW/SCT CLOUDS
ARND 5KFT AGL. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS A THIN MOISTURE LAYER WAS
NOTED AT 5KFT AGL...AND THEN DRIES AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD AID IN LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER.
THEN AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISC...WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME BETTER MIXED DURING THE DAY SUN..AND CAN
EASILY SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z...MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH MID EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA IS LOW THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WX TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 30KT. CHANCE OF
TSRA AT NIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
247 PM CDT
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND
WESTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN NORTHEAST TO SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...
LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT NORTH AND BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY EVENING WHILE THE LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT DUE TO THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
AREAS BUT DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE COOL WATER UNDER
VERY WARM AIR...PREVAILING SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 15-20KT.
THE LOW MOVES TRACKS EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST TO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY WINDS DROP OFF TO 10 KT OR LESS AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH APPROACHES.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
511 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
338 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH A WARMING TREND STILL ON TRACK
AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
ONGOING CHANGES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE WARM
FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH AREAS NEAR STERLING IN
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS SOUTHEAST TO AREAS NEAR KANKAKEE. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S NORTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH
THIS EVENING WITH STEADY IF NOT WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS...PAVING THE WAY FOR A WARM NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
CONTINUE WITH MAIN THERMAL AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY
BRINGING 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C ACROSS THE CWA. THIS COINCIDING
WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING OF SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL ALL AID IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S ON SUNDAY...WITH STRONG FLOW KEEPING ANY LAKE BREEZE AT BAY
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT NOT
QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER ISSUES WITH SURFACE WAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED EAST ACROSS
AREAS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...THE CWA HAS REMAINED
MOSTLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS DRY TREND THUS FAR...STILL
FEEL THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TO OBSERVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STILL AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT REMAINING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY AS BEEN
USELESS WITH MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO GENERATE CONVECTION WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN NONE...AND MOSTLY LIKELY NOT BE. DESPITE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
AND SURGE OF GOOD MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY NORTH...WARMING ALOFT
HAS LIMITED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING
THAT 700MB TEMPS OF 10-12C ARE PUSHING OVERHEAD...WHICH IN THE
ABSENCE OF BOTH GOOD SURFACE LIFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...HAS
LIMITED ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THIS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH THE SHOWERS WHICH HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ACROSS
IOWA...WHICH ARE ALREADY DISSIPATING. FEEL THAT THE ONLY CHANCE
FOR THE CWA TO OBSERVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS AND
FEEL THAT THIS IS THE AREA WHICH MAY HELP STEER CONVECTION
SOUTHWARD. AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THIS COULD PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WHICH COULD THEN INTERACT WITH A NORTHWARD SURGING
WARM FRONT. SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
COMPLEX HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO SEEM
PROBABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC DETAILS COMING INTO BETTER LINE.
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH COULD HELP FEED THIS DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN
HELP STEER ANY CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT
WERE TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AN
OUTSIDE WIND AND HAIL THREAT COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AS STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN. RIGHT NOW...THIS IS THE LOW END SOLUTION
BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.CLIMATE...
...RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MAY 27TH...
302 PM...CURRENTLY FORECASTING A NEW RECORD HIGH AT ORD OF 96 ON
SUNDAY...MAY 27TH. THE ORD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 94 SET IN
1911.
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF 96 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN CHICAGO IS ON
MAY 31ST 1934 WHEN A RECORD HIGH OF 98 WAS REACHED. THUS...IF THE
TEMPERATURE DOES REACH 96...OR HIGHER...ON SUNDAY MAY 27TH...IT
WILL BECOME THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A NEW RECORD HIGH OF 98 AT RFD ON SUNDAY...
MAY 27TH. THE RFD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 92 SET IN 1978.
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF 98 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN ROCKFORD IS ON
MAY 31ST 1934 WHEN A RECORD HIGH OF 106 WAS REACHED. THUS...IF
THE TEMPERATURE DOES REACH 98...OR HIGHER...ON SUNDAY MAY 27TH...
IT WILL BECOME THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR.
A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS BELOW. DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING...
REACHING RECORD HIGHS ON MONDAY IS POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN REACHING RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
RECORDS FOR ORD...
HIGH TEMP/YEAR HIGH MINIMUM TEMP/YEAR
SAT MAY 26TH 94/1911 75/1914
SUN MAY 27TH 94/1911 75/1911
MON MAY 28TH 93/1977 74/2006
RECORDS FOR RFD...
SAT MAY 26TH 92/1911 67/1991
SUN MAY 27TH 92/1978 71/1914
MON MAY 28TH 93/2006 69/2006
CMS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
451 PM CDT
AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS
EVENING...IT WILL HELP USHER A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS AND MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
DESPITE HIGHER MOISTURE AIR SHIFTING NORTH...COULD STILL OBSERVE
SOME LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND THE 35 PERCENT AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS STRONG
MIXING AND HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH...NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE TOO STRONG IN THESE
LOCATIONS WITH 20FT WINDS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF AT 10-15MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TEMP AND DEWPOINT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM. NONETHELESS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30-35 PERCENT ARE STILL EXPECTED. STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WITH 20FT WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 20MPH.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
20 KT POSSIBLE TIL 00Z OR SO.
* LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING.
* SOUTH WINDS TO START SUNDAY BECOMING GUSTY 20-25 KT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THANKS TO THE
PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE A SECOND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THAT THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY OR
MID EVENING BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY MID OR LATE EVENING.
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE WARM FRONT THAT IS SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND IT APPEARS ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL BE STALLED
BY THE COOLING THAT HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE LAKE. A PORTION OF THE
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE SECTIONS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
REMAINS HUNG UP SO RFD COULD SEE A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS FIRST.
WILL CONTINUE MONITOR TIMING OF WIND TRENDS INTO THE EVENING.
SHRA/TSRA STILL POSSIBLE BUT CHANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW. MOST
FAVORED AREA WOULD BE FROM RFD TO PWK AND POINTS NORTH INTO MID
EVENING.
MDB
FROM 18Z...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA STRETCHING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IL/IN. WINDS NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS
CONTINUES TO BE EASTERLY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPR
TEENS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. VISIBLE
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A NARROW CHANNEL OF A CUMULUS
FIELDS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO REMAIN RATHER FLAT. SOME BETTER
GROWTH IN THE CLOUDS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI/FAR
NORTHERN IA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS POSED SOME CONCERN FOR
NORTHERN IL AIRFIELDS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE...HOWEVER THE GENERAL
THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL SLIDE EAST AND AVOID MOST OF THE
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS...IF NOT ALL OF THEM. AT THIS
TIME HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST...WITH JUST A FEW/SCT CLOUDS
ARND 5KFT AGL. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS A THIN MOISTURE LAYER WAS
NOTED AT 5KFT AGL...AND THEN DRIES AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD AID IN LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER.
THEN AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISC...WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME BETTER MIXED DURING THE DAY SUN..AND CAN
EASILY SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z...MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH MID EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA IS LOW THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WX TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 30KT. CHANCE OF
TSRA AT NIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
247 PM CDT
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND
WESTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN NORTHEAST TO SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...
LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT NORTH AND BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY EVENING WHILE THE LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT DUE TO THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
AREAS BUT DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE COOL WATER UNDER
VERY WARM AIR...PREVAILING SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 15-20KT.
THE LOW MOVES TRACKS EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST TO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY WINDS DROP OFF TO 10 KT OR LESS AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH APPROACHES.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
451 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
338 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH A WARMING TREND STILL ON TRACK
AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
ONGOING CHANGES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE WARM
FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH AREAS NEAR STERLING IN
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS SOUTHEAST TO AREAS NEAR KANKAKEE. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S NORTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH
THIS EVENING WITH STEADY IF NOT WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS...PAVING THE WAY FOR A WARM NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
CONTINUE WITH MAIN THERMAL AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY
BRINGING 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C ACROSS THE CWA. THIS COINCIDING
WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING OF SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL ALL AID IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S ON SUNDAY...WITH STRONG FLOW KEEPING ANY LAKE BREEZE AT BAY
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT NOT
QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER ISSUES WITH SURFACE WAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED EAST ACROSS
AREAS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...THE CWA HAS REMAINED
MOSTLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS DRY TREND THUS FAR...STILL
FEEL THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TO OBSERVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STILL AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT REMAINING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY AS BEEN
USELESS WITH MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO GENERATE CONVECTION WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN NONE...AND MOSTLY LIKELY NOT BE. DESPITE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
AND SURGE OF GOOD MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY NORTH...WARMING ALOFT
HAS LIMITED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING
THAT 700MB TEMPS OF 10-12C ARE PUSHING OVERHEAD...WHICH IN THE
ABSENCE OF BOTH GOOD SURFACE LIFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...HAS
LIMITED ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THIS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH THE SHOWERS WHICH HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ACROSS
IOWA...WHICH ARE ALREADY DISSIPATING. FEEL THAT THE ONLY CHANCE
FOR THE CWA TO OBSERVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS AND
FEEL THAT THIS IS THE AREA WHICH MAY HELP STEER CONVECTION
SOUTHWARD. AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THIS COULD PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WHICH COULD THEN INTERACT WITH A NORTHWARD SURGING
WARM FRONT. SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
COMPLEX HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO SEEM
PROBABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC DETAILS COMING INTO BETTER LINE.
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH COULD HELP FEED THIS DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN
HELP STEER ANY CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT
WERE TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AN
OUTSIDE WIND AND HAIL THREAT COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AS STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN. RIGHT NOW...THIS IS THE LOW END SOLUTION
BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.CLIMATE...
...RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MAY 27TH...
302 PM...CURRENTLY FORECASTING A NEW RECORD HIGH AT ORD OF 96 ON
SUNDAY...MAY 27TH. THE ORD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 94 SET IN
1911.
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF 96 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN CHICAGO IS ON
MAY 31ST 1934 WHEN A RECORD HIGH OF 98 WAS REACHED. THUS...IF THE
TEMPERATURE DOES REACH 96...OR HIGHER...ON SUNDAY MAY 27TH...IT
WILL BECOME THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A NEW RECORD HIGH OF 98 AT RFD ON SUNDAY...
MAY 27TH. THE RFD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 92 SET IN 1978.
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF 98 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN ROCKFORD IS ON
MAY 31ST 1934 WHEN A RECORD HIGH OF 106 WAS REACHED. THUS...IF
THE TEMPERATURE DOES REACH 98...OR HIGHER...ON SUNDAY MAY 27TH...
IT WILL BECOME THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR.
A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS BELOW. DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING...
REACHING RECORD HIGHS ON MONDAY IS POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN REACHING RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
RECORDS FOR ORD...
HIGH TEMP/YEAR HIGH MINIMUM TEMP/YEAR
SAT MAY 26TH 94/1911 75/1914
SUN MAY 27TH 94/1911 75/1911
MON MAY 28TH 93/1977 74/2006
RECORDS FOR RFD...
SAT MAY 26TH 92/1911 67/1991
SUN MAY 27TH 92/1978 71/1914
MON MAY 28TH 93/2006 69/2006
CMS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
451 PM CDT
AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS
EVENING...IT WILL HELP USHER A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS AND MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
DESPITE HIGHER MOISTURE AIR SHIFTING NORTH...COULD STILL OBSERVE
SOME LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND THE 35 PERCENT AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS STRONG
MIXING AND HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH...NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE TOO STRONG IN THESE
LOCATIONS WITH 20FT WINDS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF AT 10-15MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TEMP AND DEWPOINT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM. NONETHELESS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30-35 PERCENT ARE STILL EXPECTED. STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WITH 20FT WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 20MPH.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* EAST WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 16KT THIS AFTN. WINDS THEN
VEER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT.
* GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP SUN MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN...WITH GUSTS TO
20-25KT.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA STRETCHING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IL/IN. WINDS NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS
CONTINUES TO BE EASTERLY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPR
TEENS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. VISIBLE
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A NARROW CHANNEL OF A CUMULUS
FIELDS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO REMAIN RATHER FLAT. SOME BETTER
GROWTH IN THE CLOUDS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI/FAR
NORTHERN IA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS POSED SOME CONCERN FOR
NORTHERN IL AIRFIELDS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE...HOWEVER THE GENERAL
THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL SLIDE EAST AND AVOID MOST OF THE
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS...IF NOT ALL OF THEM. AT THIS
TIME HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST...WITH JUST A FEW/SCT CLOUDS
ARND 5KFT AGL. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS A THIN MOISTURE LAYER WAS
NOTED AT 5KFT AGL...AND THEN DRIES AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD AID IN LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER.
THEN AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISC...WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME BETTER MIXED DURING THE DAY SUN..AND CAN
EASILY SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AIRFIELDS REMAINING DRY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS AFT 09Z SUN.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 30KT. CHANCE OF
TSRA AT NIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
247 PM CDT
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND
WESTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN NORTHEAST TO SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...
LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT NORTH AND BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY EVENING WHILE THE LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT DUE TO THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
AREAS BUT DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE COOL WATER UNDER
VERY WARM AIR...PREVAILING SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 15-20KT.
THE LOW MOVES TRACKS EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST TO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY WINDS DROP OFF TO 10 KT OR LESS AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH APPROACHES.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
342 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
338 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WITH A WARMING TREND STILL ON TRACK
AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
ONGOING CHANGES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE WARM
FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH AREAS NEAR STERLING IN
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS SOUTHEAST TO AREAS NEAR KANKAKEE. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S NORTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH
THIS EVENING WITH STEADY IF NOT WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS...PAVING THE WAY FOR A WARM NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
CONTINUE WITH MAIN THERMAL AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY
BRINGING 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C ACROSS THE CWA. THIS COINCIDING
WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND STRONG MIXING OF SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL ALL AID IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S ON SUNDAY...WITH STRONG FLOW KEEPING ANY LAKE BREEZE AT BAY
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT NOT
QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER ISSUES WITH SURFACE WAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED EAST ACROSS
AREAS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...THE CWA HAS REMAINED
MOSTLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS DRY TREND THUS FAR...STILL
FEEL THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TO OBSERVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STILL AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT REMAINING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY AS BEEN
USELESS WITH MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO GENERATE CONVECTION WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN NONE...AND MOSTLY LIKELY NOT BE. DESPITE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
AND SURGE OF GOOD MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY NORTH...WARMING ALOFT
HAS LIMITED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING
THAT 700MB TEMPS OF 10-12C ARE PUSHING OVERHEAD...WHICH IN THE
ABSENCE OF BOTH GOOD SURFACE LIFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...HAS
LIMITED ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THIS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH THE SHOWERS WHICH HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ACROSS
IOWA...WHICH ARE ALREADY DISSIPATING. FEEL THAT THE ONLY CHANCE
FOR THE CWA TO OBSERVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS AND
FEEL THAT THIS IS THE AREA WHICH MAY HELP STEER CONVECTION
SOUTHWARD. AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THIS COULD PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WHICH COULD THEN INTERACT WITH A NORTHWARD SURGING
WARM FRONT. SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
COMPLEX HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO SEEM
PROBABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC DETAILS COMING INTO BETTER LINE.
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH COULD HELP FEED THIS DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN
HELP STEER ANY CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT
WERE TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AN
OUTSIDE WIND AND HAIL THREAT COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AS STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN. RIGHT NOW...THIS IS THE LOW END SOLUTION
BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.CLIMATE...
...RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MAY 27TH...
302 PM...CURRENTLY FORECASTING A NEW RECORD HIGH AT ORD OF 96 ON
SUNDAY...MAY 27TH. THE ORD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 94 SET IN
1911.
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF 96 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN CHICAGO IS ON
MAY 31ST 1934 WHEN A RECORD HIGH OF 98 WAS REACHED. THUS...IF THE
TEMPERATURE DOES REACH 96...OR HIGHER...ON SUNDAY MAY 27TH...IT
WILL BECOME THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A NEW RECORD HIGH OF 98 AT RFD ON SUNDAY...
MAY 27TH. THE RFD RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 27TH IS 92 SET IN 1978.
THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF 98 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN ROCKFORD IS ON
MAY 31ST 1934 WHEN A RECORD HIGH OF 106 WAS REACHED. THUS...IF
THE TEMPERATURE DOES REACH 98...OR HIGHER...ON SUNDAY MAY 27TH...
IT WILL BECOME THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR.
A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS BELOW. DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING...
REACHING RECORD HIGHS ON MONDAY IS POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN REACHING RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
RECORDS FOR ORD...
HIGH TEMP/YEAR HIGH MINIMUM TEMP/YEAR
SAT MAY 26TH 94/1911 75/1914
SUN MAY 27TH 94/1911 75/1911
MON MAY 28TH 93/1977 74/2006
RECORDS FOR RFD...
SAT MAY 26TH 92/1911 67/1991
SUN MAY 27TH 92/1978 71/1914
MON MAY 28TH 93/2006 69/2006
CMS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
706 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S //RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40
PERCENT// MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS ASSUMING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT CLOUD COVER MAY BE LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED LEADING TO
WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS GIVEN DEEPER MIXING
WITH A THREAT OF REACHING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* EAST WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 16KT THIS AFTN. WINDS THEN
VEER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT.
* GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP SUN MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN...WITH GUSTS TO
20-25KT.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA STRETCHING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IL/IN. WINDS NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS
CONTINUES TO BE EASTERLY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPR
TEENS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. VISIBLE
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A NARROW CHANNEL OF A CUMULUS
FIELDS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO REMAIN RATHER FLAT. SOME BETTER
GROWTH IN THE CLOUDS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI/FAR
NORTHERN IA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS POSED SOME CONCERN FOR
NORTHERN IL AIRFIELDS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE...HOWEVER THE GENERAL
THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL SLIDE EAST AND AVOID MOST OF THE
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS...IF NOT ALL OF THEM. AT THIS
TIME HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST...WITH JUST A FEW/SCT CLOUDS
ARND 5KFT AGL. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS A THIN MOISTURE LAYER WAS
NOTED AT 5KFT AGL...AND THEN DRIES AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD AID IN LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER.
THEN AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISC...WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME BETTER MIXED DURING THE DAY SUN..AND CAN
EASILY SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AIRFIELDS REMAINING DRY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS AFT 09Z SUN.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 30KT. CHANCE OF
TSRA AT NIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
247 PM CDT
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND
WESTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN NORTHEAST TO SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...
LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT NORTH AND BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY EVENING WHILE THE LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT DUE TO THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
AREAS BUT DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE COOL WATER UNDER
VERY WARM AIR...PREVAILING SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 15-20KT.
THE LOW MOVES TRACKS EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST TO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY WINDS DROP OFF TO 10 KT OR LESS AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH APPROACHES.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1257 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.UPDATE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND ON TRACK TO VERIFY. THERE MAY
BE AN HOUR OF CRITERIA MET A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT THAT GREAT. WILL
STICK WITH WHAT WE HAVE AT THE MOMENT.
CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
MOST PART. THE 26.13 AND 25.14 RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AROUND 22Z WITH TRANSLATION OF
ACTIVITY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE 02Z.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE ENVIRONMENT WITH THESE STORMS. THE
26.12Z NAM-WRF FORECAST OF 0-6KM SHEAR IN THAT LOCATION IS 30-35
KNOTS. THIS IS ON THE VERY LOW END OF FOR SUPERCELLS. INSTABILITY
OF 2-3K OF CAPE IF STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND.
WITH THAT...THINK IT WARRANTS A LOW END RISK OF SEVERE...SO WILL
CONTINUES FORECAST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND ACTUALLY BRING IT
FURTHER EAST GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR IN THAT LOCATION AS WELL AS THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
COOK
&&
.AVIATION...Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS /25G35 KTS OR SO/. THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THESE COULD PRODUCE HAIL...STRONG
WINDS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS FROM MICROBURSTS. THE BEST TIME FOR
THESE IS FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z.
COOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
BY FAR THE GREATEST CONCERN IS THAT OF STRONG S WINDS THAT ARE LIKELY
TO REACH A SUSTAINED 25-30KTS ACROSS ALL OF CNTRL & SC KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WHIPPING KRSL WHERE ~40KT GUSTS ARE
LIKELY. WITH THE INTENSE SFC CYCLONE LIFTING NE FROM CO TO WRN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AM NOW EXPECTING MINIMAL DIMINISHMENT IN SPEEDS
(ESPECIALLY OVER KRSL WHERE CLOSEST TO THE CYCLONE.) S WINDS MAY EVEN
RESTRENGTHEN TOWARD 27/06Z AS LOW-LVL JET PRESSES HARDER ON THROTTLE.
THE TSRA THREAT IS LIMITED IN BOTH DURATION & AREAL EXTENT OVER KRSL &
AS SUCH HAVE LEFT SUCH MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR TIME BEING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE STORM CHANCES SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH
MON.
SYNOPSIS:
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE SOME REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BUD CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM
FRONT IS NOW SITUATED BETWEEN I-70 AND THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WORKS EAST TODAY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER NORTHEAST CO/SW NEBRASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WEST OF I-135 WHERE CAPPING WILL BE AT A MINIMUM. THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUING STREAMING NORTH. EXTREMELY LARGE
TEMP/DEW SPREADS WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT TO DOWNBURST WINDS AND
HAIL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WILL RUN WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL NOT GET TOO CRANKED UP UNTIL AFTER 19Z WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED ONLY A HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135 CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
90S.
SUN-MON:
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY SUN AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL TAKE OVER THE DRYLINE BY EARLY SUN EVENING
AND SURGE THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAKES IT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE MORE ROBUST IN DIVING SOME OF THE UPPER ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH
COMPARED TO THE NAM. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME
ISO-SCT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY...FEEL THE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF
SE KS WHICH WILL KEEP SOME STORM CHANCES AROUND FOR MON.
TUE-FRI:
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS IS VERY LOW DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL FORECASTING A TRANSITION TO A
NW FLOW REGIME...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE THE GFS IS MUCH WETTER
THAN THE ECMWF BECAUSE IT KEEPS A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE RIGHT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. BY 00Z THU THE GFS IS SLIDING A DECENT SHORTWAVE
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE
THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
TRACKS IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IT APPEARS THE ECMWF DOES HAVE SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET WHICH DOES LEAD US TO THINK THAT THE GFS MIGHT
BE TOO WET.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 95 71 91 69 / 20 20 10 20
HUTCHINSON 95 71 91 67 / 20 20 10 30
NEWTON 94 70 90 68 / 20 20 10 30
ELDORADO 94 70 90 69 / 20 20 10 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 95 71 91 70 / 10 10 10 20
RUSSELL 96 71 90 63 / 30 30 40 60
GREAT BEND 96 71 90 64 / 30 30 30 50
SALINA 98 71 91 66 / 20 20 10 40
MCPHERSON 96 71 91 67 / 20 20 10 30
COFFEYVILLE 93 70 90 70 / 10 10 10 20
CHANUTE 91 69 88 69 / 10 10 10 20
IOLA 91 69 88 69 / 10 10 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 92 70 89 70 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-
050.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
337 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE
REGION MAY HELP TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO BISECT OUR CWA. THIS CAN BE BEST SEEN
IN THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL WORK AS
A MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIDGES AND POINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE CAPPING IS
WEAKEST. THE MOST RECENT WRF-NMM AND HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS RUNNING
THROUGH CENTRAL PA INTO SOUTHWESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV THOUGH THERE
HAS YET TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT UP
TO THIS POINT OVER OUR AREA. STILL WITH THE MOST RECENT MESO
ANALYSIS SUGGESTING 3500 J/KG OF CAPE AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
STILL WELL INTO THE 60`S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THINK THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
DISORGANIZED. CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. THE NAM WANTS TO BRING A MCS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT THAT WAS STALLED
OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BEGINS TO LIFT AS A WARM FRONT...SPARKING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND WHETHER THE MCS WILL
MAKE IT...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVERHEAD TO ASSIST IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE PROGGED FOR LATE
TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND HEATING...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...BROUGHT IN HIGH CHANCE WORDING BY THE
AFTERNOON.
MAINTAINED TEMPERATURES NEAR MAV/MEX GUIDANCE OF 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY AS 850HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
ALMOST 20C OVERHEAD. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING TUESDAY...KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING WEST TO EAST AS NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND FRONT
BRINGS IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY UNDER A FLAT TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO COME BACK NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BRINGING IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE BEGINNING OF JUNE WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCE POPS CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER
COLD POOL ALOFT. CLOSE TO HPC PROGS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM KPHD TO KPIT AND KIDI
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES LOOKS TO
BE SHUNTED NORTH OF REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERAL VFR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
432 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH UT/NRN AZ.
AT THE SFC...E TO SE FLOW WAS DEVELOPING BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN
ONTARIO AND A WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL. AREAS OF
CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SRN MN INTO SW WI...CLOSER TO THE 850
MB WARM FRONT. A BAND OF -SHRA...MAINLY SPRINKLES OVER SRN UPPER MI
WAS DIMINISHING AT IT MOVES EAST INTO THE DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
TONIGHT...AS THE UT/AZ SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD NE WY AND WRN ND
AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...THE
SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH. MDLS STILL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL. EXPECT INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION ALONG THE WI BDR AND
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 850 MB WARM FRONT AND
BEST 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. EXPECT INCREASED
MID-LVL DRYING/WARMING TO HELP CAP CONVECTION OVER SRN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE THE AREA...TEMPS
COULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG THE WI BDR BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL (LOWER 60S) OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA IN AN ERLY FLOW AND
ALONG LAKE MI IN A SRLY FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON...AND WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON.
PERIOD STARTS 00Z MON WITH A DEEP 500MB LOW OVER FAR NE MT AND A
500MB RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SE CONUS...OVER OUR CWA...AND INTO CENTRAL
MANITOBA. AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE A LOW E OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH A
WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE SRN CWA. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING WHEN IT MOVES E
THROUGH THE WEEK.
SUN NIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE SRN CWA TO START
THE NIGHT OFF...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN
NIGHT...BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEING OVER THE CWA /SO REALLY
NO UPPER SUPPORT/ AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER N AND W LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
19C AND SW FLOW...EXPECT WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S
/WARMEST IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/.
MON...ATTENTION TURNS TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE 00Z/26 ECMWF
BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 12Z/26
GFS AND 12Z/26 NAM. PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND NAM
SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE. THIS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA AROUND 18Z MON...THEN
TO THE CENTRAL CWA AROUND 00Z TUE...THEN EXITING THE E CWA AROUND
06Z TUE. THIS WOULD PROVIDE TIME FOR AMPLE HEATING AS 850MB TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND 17C...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
90...WARMEST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL. THERE SHOULD BE AROUND 1000J/KG
OF SBCAPE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1500J/KG.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO BE 60-70KTS...BUT 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE
LOWER AT AROUND 15KTS. IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY DRY THROUGHOUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD ACT TO LIMIT PRECIP. THE NAM SHOWS THE MOST
MOISTURE...BUT THAT ALSO BRINGS AN 850MB JET UP INTO THE CWA...WHICH
THE DRIER GFS KEEPS FARTHER S. TEND TO SUPPORT THE GFS IDEA
HERE...AS THE JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS TYPICALLY BLOCKED BY
ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE S...WHICH LOOKS FAVORABLE GIVEN THE JET
NOSING INTO AN AREA OF HIGH CAPE OVER SRN WI/NRN IL. ALSO...THE
UPPER LOW WILL ONLY HAVE MOVE TO EXTREME NW MN BY 00Z TUE...SO UPPER
SUPPORT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING. STILL...IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM
SOME OF THEM COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THINK THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO PUT IN THE HWO. AS FAR AS POPS
GO...WILL KEEP BELOW LIKELY PERCENTAGES.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING FROM A CWA AVG OF AROUND 9C AT 12Z TUE...TO 6C BY 00Z WED.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS...LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET
POP UP SHOWERS INLAND TUE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL GET INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE E AND CWA...WITH W UPPER MI SEEING HIGHS
IN THE 50S.
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA WED INTO EARLY
THU...KEEPING TEMPS COOL AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE -1C TO 1C WED.
WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE ON THU...WITH CWA AVG
850MB TEMPS AROUND 5C BY 00Z FRI. HIGHS WED LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 S ON WED...AND IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S THU. THEN
EXPECT SOME WARMING FRI INTO NEXT SAT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON SAT AS MODELS HAVE MORE
WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER AN ERLY WIND FLOW. MAIN CONCERN WILL THEN BE INCOMING
RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE INCOMING WARM FRONT.
RAIN WILL START FIRST AT KIWD AND THEN MOVE INTO KCMX AND KSAW. WHEN
THE RAIN INITIALLY ARRIVES...A LOWER VFR CIG IS LIKELY. EXPECT CIGS
TO LOWER TO IFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY UNDER A MOIST EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG INCOMING WARM FRONT
INCLUDED VCTS FOR KIWD EARLY IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND
AT KCMX AND KSAW AFT 06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. PRESSURE
PATTERN RESULTS IN PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING INTO WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
AND A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR STRONG GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVR MUCH
OF WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
TONIGHT. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
ON SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WINDS BY LATER IN THE DAY.
SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS TO
25 KTS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVR
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD THEN REMAIN GUSTY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
150 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AREA WILL MOVE NORTH OF M-46 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED STEADILY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NOW
FEATURE LOWER POPS. STILL MONITORING UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN MN CLOSELY.
A RISK EXIST FOR THIS TO TRACK INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1148 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
ISSUED A FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
CROSSING LAKE MI. THE RAIN HAS BEEN DISSIPATING. BUT IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION SOUTH OF A HART
TO ST JOHNS LINE THIS AFTERNOON. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME SUN BY MID AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF HOURS OF FILTERED SUN
COULD STILL ALLOW FOR THE 70S THAT WE HAVE GOING FOR HIGHS. I DID
UPDATE THE GRAPHICAST TO MENTION THAT THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY
WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 4 PM.
LOOKING UPSTREAM ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS TRACKING ALONG THE
GRADIENT OF STEEPER MID LEVE LAPSE RATES NEAR MINNEAPOLIS. THIS
GRADIENT DOES RUN INTO LOWER MI. SO AN ELEVATED RISK EXISTS FOR
THE STORMS TO ROLL INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. CURRENT TIMING FOR THEM TO
ARRIVE ON THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WOULD BE AROUND 00Z SUN. HOWEVER
THE STORMS COULD WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING MI. THIS IS
WHAT THE HRRR RUC IS SHOWING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE
SITUATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECAYING MCS THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGHER POPS...LOWER TEMPS. WARMEST
TEMPS TODAY MAY BE FROM LDM TO HARRISON IF SOME SUN UP THERE. THE
RADAR TRENDS IN SRN WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE HEAVIER CELLS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MCS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND MISS SW LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR RUC SAYS OTHERWISE. WILL KEEP MONITORING THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. THE FORECAST FOR NOW WILL FEATURE LESS SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE HEAT SUNDAY AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...MAINLY NON-SEVERE.
* HOT SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES UPPER 90S SOUTH ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 ACROSS IOWA AND NRN IL. IT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT AND CLOSE TO THE H8 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES IS A FAVORED AREA OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND THIS MORNING
IS NO
EXCEPTION. THIS PCPN WAS GENERALLY MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING A BIT
AS IT APPROACHED LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS ISN/T TOO SURPRISING GIVEN
THAT THE LLJ IS VERY WEAK IN THIS AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
PCPN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT HITS THE LAKE SHORE AROUND 11Z MAINLY
NORTH OF I-96.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...INITIALLY ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE SFC LOW DRIVING
THIS FRONT NWD IS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SO WE SHOULD SEE THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SVR STORMS WELL WEST OF THE CWA WHERE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE GREATEST. THAT SAID...AN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL FUNNEL SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS NRN IL/SRN
LWR TODAY. THESE WAVES WILL ACT TO INCREASE COVERAGE AFTER 18Z
TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO COVER THIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND SO SHOULD MUCH
OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY. WE/LL BECOME INCREASINGLY CAPPED AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-94.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM IS TIMING OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT MAIN BATCH
OF CONVECTION TO BE ARRIVING IN THE EVENING. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND SLOWER EURO AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. FRONT IS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH MORNING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES THEN DRY AND COOLER FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE 00Z EURO HAS
LOST THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN INDICATED FORMING AT THE SOUTHERN
END OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES
BAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
KEPT THE FORECAST AS VFR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORMS AS THEY
DEVELOP OVER THE MN TO WI TO MI AREA THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE. MAY BE SOME BRIEF IFR AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STORMS. THE INDICATIONS ARE THE THE STORMS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY AM TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE STORMS EVOLVE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
THE NEARSHORE FORECAST FEATURE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WAVES UNDER 3 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT/
STILL A TOUGH CALL ON TONIGHT WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY ALOFT. STILL
A FAIRLY STOUT CAP NEAR 800 MB. RAP SOUNDINGS WEAKEN THE CAP
BETWEEN 4-6 PM...BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. CERTAINLY SOME MASS
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE SURFACE WARMFRONT
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT EVEN SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...ANOTHER INDICATION OF THE STRONG CAP.
HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION THE PAST FEW RUNS
NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE AS ITS
INITIALIZATION ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE TOO WARM IN THE MODEL BY
5-10 DEGREES. INCREASING JET ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL AID IN ASSENT
SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET AROUND THE CAP.
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. IT IS
CERTAINLY UNSTABLE ALOFT WITH 3500-4000 J/KG OF CAPE. IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP DOWN SOUTH...AND THAT IS A BIG IF...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THEM TO FOLLOW THE 925 MB FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND AND LOW LEVEL JET...GENERALLY WARMER THAN IT
HAS BEEN MUCH OF THE DAY. /BT
SUNDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE A VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY
WITHOUT MUCH THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 300 PM CDT.
BETTER FORCING WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH THE APPROACH OF A
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE MAIN AFFECTS OF THIS
WAVE WILL BE FELT FROM ABOUT 21Z THROUGH 9Z AND WILL HIT THE POPS
THE HARDEST DURING THIS TIME. WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT/DRY LINE MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM AROUND A
BROOKINGS TO YANKTON LINE EAST. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME BUT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT IN PARTS OF
PIPESTONE AND MOODY COUNTIES AS WELL AS EASTERN
WOODBURY...CHEROKEE...CLAY IOWA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES. BELIEVE THAT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO GET AN INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL WHICH
COULD SET A FEW CREEKS/STREAMS AND RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS IF IT
FALLS IN THE RIGHT SPOT. THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WITH HE COLD FRONT ALOFT MOVING IN THROUGH
THE DAY THE CAP WILL WEAKEN QUITE A BIT AND FROM ABOUT 22Z ON WILL
BE DIFFICULT NOT TO SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS STORMS DEVELOP THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG SFC BASED CAPE AND MODERATE 40 KNOT OR SO BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0 TO 3KM AND 0 TO 6KM LAYERS. WHILE THE 0 TO 1KM BULK SHEAR IS
TO POSSIBLY BE UP AROUND 20 KNOTS THE DIRECTIONAL ASPECT IS SEVERELY
LACKING WITH FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SO LIKELY LOOKING AT THE THREAT FOR HALF
DOLLAR TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND BY ABOUT 9Z OR
10Z LIKELY BE EAST OF THE CWA. COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR WILL
ADVECT IN SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK COOL AND BREEZY AS WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW KEEPS DRY AND MIXY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 40S
TO NEAR 50.
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE COOL DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(WED/SAT)...TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED. WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE MUCH ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF JET MAX...SO WILL LEAVE MID
RANGE POPS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE LOOKING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BASICALLY PLANNING ON 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 70 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. /08
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90...WHILE KSUX SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
AFTER 22Z...AND IF THEY DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.
SURFACE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND
AS IT DOES SO LOW LYING STRATUS AND MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED SET UP TODAY WITH LARGE AMOUNT OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. CLEARING STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE AREA. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT KOMA AND KLBF
SHOW VERY STOUT CAP LIFT NORTH...WHICH BRING CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO
QUESTION. CERTAINLY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ESPECIALLY IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER...LEADING TO CAPE VALUES OF 4-5K. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO GET AROUND THE CAP...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION WOULD LEAD TO
EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO. HRRR HAS SUGGESTED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
CLEARING AFTER 22Z...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING IN THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS THAT MAY NOT BE REAL. AS SUCH...HAVE TRIMMED BACK
STORM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 90. IF STORMS GO...THINK IT
WOULD BE CLOSER TO 00Z...BUT THAT IS STILL A BIG IF. HAVE SLOWED
WARMING COMPARED TO FORECAST AND MODELS WITH STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA...AND HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGHS SOME.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90...WHILE KSUX SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
AFTER 22Z...AND IF THEY DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.
SURFACE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND
AS IT DOES SO LOW LYING STRATUS AND MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT/
WILL GIVE A FAIRLY BRIEF DISCUSSION WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION
CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE WEATHER CHALLENGES CONFINED TO THIS
WEEKEND ANYWAY. CURRENTLY...VERY STRONG WARM FRONT ALOFT WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG THETA E ADVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD
SPARKING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE NORTHWARD...
THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL COALESCE AND FILL
IN PRIMARILY NORTH OF I 90 WHERE THE STRONG INTERACTION WITH THE
850MB FRONT IS. THEREFORE EARLY THIS MORNING...CONTINUED THE TREND
OF GOING HIGH POPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I 90...BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL
HOW MUCH THE CONVECTION FILLS IN ACROSS SW MINNESOTA. WITH VERY HIGH
ELEVATED CAMPS AND STRONG WIND SHEAR...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY. THEN DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS IS WHEN WE MAY
FIND A BREAK IN THE ACTION. BUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IS CONCERNING. MASSIVE ML CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG
ARE EVIDENT ON MULTIPLE MODELS LATE TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE NEXT
STRONG ROUND OF 700MB THETA E ADVECTION MOVES NORTHWARD AND WITH THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE 850MB FRONT...THE
CAP COULD VERY WELL BREAK. BOTH THE NAM...ECMWF AND THE GEM REGIONAL
HINT AT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION BEING IN A BAND FROM YANKTON TO
SIOUX CITY... NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SIOUX FALLS AREA AND INTO SW
MINNESOTA. TIMING WISE IS FOR THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS IS A SUPERCELL TYPE SITUATION WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...DEEP LAYER VEERING WIND SHEAR AND 0-3KM BULK SHEAR
VECTORS A STRONG 45 TO 50 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AREA. BUT THE ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE OF A SCATTERED NATURE. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WITH
THE WARM FRONT LIFTING A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...WARMED UP SOME MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ALONG THE I 90
CORRIDOR AND THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING IS WHEN THE NEXT MAJOR ACTION WILL
TAKE PLACE...WITH OUR WELL ADVERTISED VERY STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE
RIDING NORTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. ALL MODELS
CONTINUE TO INITIATE CONVECTION AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF A TYNDALL SD TO BROOKINGS SD LINE.
MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE ON SUNDAY AS IT IS
TODAY...BUT THE SPEED SHEAR REMAINS VERY STRONG WITH 60 TO 65 KNOTS
WIDESPREAD AT 6KM.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
$$