Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/11/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

 303 PM MDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...CUMULUS FINALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS MOUNTAINS OF PARK
SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES. AIRMASS DRIER WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER. LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES AROUND 200 J/KG IN THIS
AREA. LATEST RUC INDICATES 200-300 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
HIGH BASED STORMS...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIND THAN RAIN. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. WITH LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SOME MID AND UPPER
30S IN LOW LYING AREAS. ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER AREA TO
SHIFT EAST WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST. THIS FLOW TO ALLOW
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON.
WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED AND FORECAST CAPES AROUND
500 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. BUT WITHOUT HELP FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.
WILL ALSO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE FOOTHILLS LATE IN
THE DAY AS A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD MOVE ACROSS AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIND THAN RAIN. ACROSS
PLAINS...AIRMASS TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTION DESPITE THE FAIRLY
DECENT LAPSE RATES. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS AS WELL AS
GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS PLAINS. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. CURRENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE AND LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY EVENING...THE BEST CHANCE BEING
OVER THR HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY WITH AREAS ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 50 DEGREES. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE
UNSTABLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH
A SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WINDS WILL TURN
EASTERLY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT RAIN
AND SNOW TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVER. SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO 7000 TO
8000 FEET.

RAIN WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE COOLER WITH READINGS AROUND 50 DEGREES. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAY BRING A ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. FOR THE PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO BEING TOO FAR
AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE. SO IF ANY SHOWERS FORM...THEY WILL BE LIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LOW UNDER THIS PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST BY 02Z AS
DRAINAGE PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS TO THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FOOTHILLS AFTER 21Z...SHOULD NOT AFFECT AREA
AIRPORTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 18Z WITH LIGHT RAIN.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...D-L








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

 944 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2012

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECASTS ON TRACK. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHERE RUC SHOWS SOME MOISTURE BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE MORE WIND
THAN RAIN. OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
18Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2012/

SHORT TERM...WK WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE.  COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED WK TSTM OR TWO
OVER THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-70 BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING SO WILL
KEEP IN VERY LOW POPS FOR THIS AREA.  OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ELSEWHERE.  HIGHS THIS AFTN BASED ON DECENT 850-700 MB WARMING
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO.

LONG TERM...MODELS KEEP AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  THEY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CWA THE
REST OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT IT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS
WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED OVER THE CWA FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED FOR THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE A DECENT COLD FRONT MOVE
SOUTH OVER THE CWA...WITH NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND IT
THROUGH FRIDAY.  BY FRIDAY NIGHT...EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE IS
PROGGED.  FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS LITTLE THURSDAY MORNING...THEN A
BIT BY LATE DAY AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION.  BY 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS
WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES ON FRIDAY...AND IT IS
PRETTY DEEP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MOISTURE
CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT READINGS ARE
PROGGED FROM THE TEENS F WEST TO AROUND 30 F EAST LATE DAY
THURSDAY.  AFTER THE FRONT...DEW POINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 30S F FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE A BIT DRIER
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME MINOR CAPE PROGGED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE DAY THURSDAY.  THERE IS BETTER CAPE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...FROM THE DIVIDE WEST FOR FRIDAY.  THE PLAINS ARE TOO
STABLE. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW A TAD OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE DAY AND EVENING
THURSDAY.  THERE IS A TAD INDICATED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL
AREAS.  WILL GO WITH SOME MINOR POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE DAY
THURSDAY.  WITH THE PREVIOUS STORM IN MIND...WILL GO WITH 20-50%
POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHEST OVER THE TERRAIN FROM THE
DIVIDE EAST.  WILL ONLY MENTION "SLIGHT CHANCES" FOR THUNDER IN THE
MOUNTAINS.  FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-3 C WARMER
THAN TODAY`S.  FRIDAY`S COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BY 10-17 C.  FOR THE
LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS IS
AROUND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THEN WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN
THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING THE CWA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE IS STILL AROUND SATURDAY...BUT DECREASES SATURDAY NIGHT...
WITH SPARSE MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES STAY
PRETTY COOL SATURDAY...BUT WARM-UP SOMEWHAT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION...VFR THRU TONIGHT.  SLY DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME LIGHT SWLY BY 15Z AND THEN LIGHT NELY AFTER 18Z.  BY
THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME DRAINAGE AGAIN AFTER 02Z.

HYDROLOGY...NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE BURN AREAS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...D-L






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 132 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO HEAD NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. POPS STILL HIGHER OVERALL OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DESTABILIZATION
AND A COLD FRONT NEARBY. A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW
THIS. SBCAPES ACCORDING TO LAPS DATA OVER THE WESTERN ZONES ARE
ALREADY UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS THEREFORE POSSIBLE
THERE...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 8-9KFT...SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ASIDE FROM A STRONG GUST OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD LAST
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING...SO HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL ARRIVES FOR THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED FRONTOGENETIC AND DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DUE TO FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING
500 HPA TROUGH AND BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 120+ KT
300 HPA JET...ONCE AGAIN CHANCE POPS NW TO CATEGORICAL POPS SE.
FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF 1/2 BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE AND 1/4
EACH OF MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THIS YIELDED
VALUES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS TO OUR EAST. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS - CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES...FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE 500 HPA TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION. FOR HIGHS USED A
BLEND OF 30 PERCENT EACH OF MIXING DOWN FROM 825 HPA AND MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE AND 10 PERCENT NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THIS
YIELDED TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY FOR INLAND
SECTIONS. TROUGH WILL DIG IN THE MIDDLE OF THE US ON
SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. GFS DEVELOPS AN
OMEGA TYPE  BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES CLOSED OFF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS MEANS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE REGION AND
DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF DOES NOT CUT OFF THE
LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THIS LENDS TO SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN THE LONG TERM...BUT IT ALSO DEVELOPS THE OMEGA BLOCK.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...SPRING IS THE TIME FOR BLOCKING
PATTERNS...SO WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LIFTED INDICES BELOW 0 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR SOUTHWESTERN CT...LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHEAST NJ...AND PORTIONS OF NEW YORK CITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL NY AND PA WILL PASS THIS EVE. LOW PRES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS E OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY WRN METRO. JFK/LGA WILL
STILL HAVE ONSHORE COMPONENT SO TAFS INDICATE LWR CIGS WITH VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE KJFK. VFR FCST FOR KEWR AND KTEB.

SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVE.

AREA WILL BE ALONG THE RAIN GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN A
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. TAFS INDICATE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR KISP-KHPN
AND POINTS E. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO EXPAND WWD ALL THE
WAY TO KEWR DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES.

IMPROVEMENT FROM THE W AFT 10Z THU. VFR IN THE METRO 14Z THU AND
BEYOND.

S TO SSW WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10KT. COLD FRONT BRINGS A
WIND SHIFT THE NW TNGT BUT SPEEDS BLW 15 KT EXPECTED. NW WINDS
INCREASE THU. SPEEDS 15-20KT WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 30KT POSSIBLE.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT UNCERTAIN FOR THIS AFTN.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS/VSBY THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CIGS/VSBY THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS/VSBY THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS/VSBY THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENCE LOW IN TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTN. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
THU AFTN...CLEARING TO VFR ACROSS ERN TERMINALS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
STRONG NW WINDS.
THU NGT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NW WINDS.
FRI-SUN...VFR.
MON...MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME. LOW
LEVEL JET IS NOW JUST EAST OF THE WATERS...AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ONLY A LITTLE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. SOME SWELL IS
BEING GENERATED...AND PROBABLY MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
WEAK COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY TONIGHT AND HEADS
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE EXPECTING SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT THROUGH
TODAY...INCREASING ABOUT A FOOT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WAVES WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS AND GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT ARE POSSIBLE BOTH PERIODS. A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILD TOWARDS 5 FT ON SUNDAY
WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM A 1/2 AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM NYC ON N AND W AND FROM 1 TO
AROUND 2 1/4 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND COASTAL SE CT.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDE LEVELS FELL SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS BY AROUND TWO
TENTHS OF A FOOT ON AVERAGE LAST NIGHT. THE PREDICTED TIDES WILL BE
A FEW OF TENTHS OF A FOOT LOWER WITH TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE...AND
TIDAL PILING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ADVERSE FACTOR BASED
ON FORECAST WINDS AND LATEST GAGE OBS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE TO FALL SAFELY BELOW MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...12
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 125 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO HEAD NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. POPS STILL HIGHER OVERALL OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DESTABILIZATION
AND A COLD FRONT NEARBY. A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW
THIS. SBCAPES ACCORDING TO LAPS DATA OVER THE WESTERN ZONES ARE
ALREADY UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS THEREFORE POSSIBLE
THERE...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 8-9KFT...SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ASIDE FROM A STRONG GUST OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD LAST
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING...SO HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL ARRIVES FOR THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED FRONTOGENETIC AND DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DUE TO FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING
500 HPA TROUGH AND BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 120+ KT
300 HPA JET...ONCE AGAIN CHANCE POPS NW TO CATEGORICAL POPS SE.
FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF 1/2 BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE AND 1/4
EACH OF MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THIS YIELDED
VALUES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS TO OUR EAST. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS - CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES...FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE 500 HPA TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION. FOR HIGHS USED A
BLEND OF 30 PERCENT EACH OF MIXING DOWN FROM 825 HPA AND MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE AND 10 PERCENT NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THIS
YIELDED TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY FOR INLAND
SECTIONS. TROUGH WILL DIG IN THE MIDDLE OF THE US ON
SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. GFS DEVELOPS AN
OMEGA TYPE  BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES CLOSED OFF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS MEANS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE REGION AND
DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF DOES NOT CUT OFF THE
LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THIS LENDS TO SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN THE LONG TERM...BUT IT ALSO DEVELOPS THE OMEGA BLOCK.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...SPRING IS THE TIME FOR BLOCKING
PATTERNS...SO WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LIFTED INDICES BELOW 0 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR SOUTHWESTERN CT...LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHEAST NJ...AND PORTIONS OF NEW YORK CITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER WRN NY AND PA WILL PASS THIS EVE. LOW PRES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS E OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

MVFR OR LWR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS BLW 1K FT REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION AT 1430Z. HAVE EXTENDED THE IFR TIL AT LEAST 17Z
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LLVL MOISTURE MAY BE TRAPPED IN THE
METRO DUE TO A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF ANY IMPROVEMENT TODAY IS LOW. ERN ARPTS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE RA THRU 18Z.

NEXT ROUND OF PCPN LATE THIS AFTN. MAY BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD TSTM TIL LOW PRES DEEPENS E OF KACY
TNGT. STEADIER RAIN AFT THAT ESPECIALLY KISP/KGON.

S TO SSW WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10KT. COLD FRONT BRINGS
A WIND SHIFT THE NW TNGT BUT SPEEDS BLW 15 KT EXPECTED ATTM.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 500 FT AT TIMES THRU
17Z. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY WITH CONFIDENCE LOW IN TIMING OF
ANY IMPROVEMENT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 500 FT AT TIMES THRU
17Z. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY WITH CONFIDENCE LOW IN TIMING OF
ANY IMPROVEMENT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
IN TIMING OF ANY IMPROVEMENT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
IN TIMING OF ANY IMPROVEMENT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO 2SM SO HAS BEEN
INDICATED IN THE AMD TAF. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW IN TIMING OF ANY IMPROVEMENT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW IN TIMING OF ANY IMPROVEMENT.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
THURSDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME. LOW
LEVEL JET IS NOW JUST EAST OF THE WATERS...AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ONLY A LITTLE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. SOME SWELL IS
BEING GENERATED...AND PROBABLY MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
WEAK COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY TONIGHT AND HEADS
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE EXPECTING SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT THROUGH
TODAY...INCREASING ABOUT A FOOT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WAVES WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS AND GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT ARE POSSIBLE BOTH PERIODS. A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILD TOWARDS 5 FT ON SUNDAY
WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM A 1/2 AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM NYC ON N AND W AND FROM 1 TO
AROUND 2 1/4 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND COASTAL SE CT.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDE LEVELS FELL SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS BY AROUND TWO
TENTHS OF A FOOT ON AVERAGE LAST NIGHT. THE PREDICTED TIDES WILL BE
A FEW OF TENTHS OF A FOOT LOWER WITH TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE...AND
TIDAL PILING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ADVERSE FACTOR BASED
ON FORECAST WINDS AND LATEST GAGE OBS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE TO FALL SAFELY BELOW MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...12
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 320 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
CONFINED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. FLOW ARRIVES OVER THE
WASHINGTON/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND FORMS LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/HIGH PLAINS BEFORE DIVING BACK TO THE SOUTH
INTO SHARP LONGWAVE RIDGING DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST/TN/OH VALLEYS.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND DRIVE A
LATE SEASON COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WE FIND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
THE NORTHERN BAJA WHICH IS NOW COMPLETELY CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. CLOSER TO HOME...THE FLOW IS
MORE-OR-LESS ZONAL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC IN NATURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MS DELTA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AL/GA. IT WILL
BE THIS FRONT THAT BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME AND THEN IS
FORCED SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...FOR ONE MORE
DAY...OUR LOCAL WEATHER WEATHER/RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONTROLLED
PRIMARILY BY THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TODAY...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS/EVOLVES INTO THE EASTERN
STATES AND THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...
MASS FIELDS WILL FORCE OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO STRENGTHEN. THIS
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCELERATE THE DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS...THIS INLAND PROPAGATION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BEST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/RAIN CHANCES (30-40%) OVER THE INTERIOR
(GENERALLY WEST OF I-75). THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AND SLOWLY
APPROACHING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF THAT WILL APPROACH THE COAST (EVEN IN THE WAKE
OF THE SEA BREEZE)...HOWEVER WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL GENERALLY
BELOW 80 DEGREES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THIS DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WILL REMAIN DRY...AND WILL
ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE 20% POP. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE MOS NUMBERS WITH UPPER 80S TO 90
INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AT THE COAST.

TONIGHT...UPPER ENERGY ARRIVING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTH AND WEST FROM THIS LOW WILL MAKE PROGRESS INTO OUR
REGION AND BE ALIGNED NEAR THE I-4 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY GIVEN AT LEAST SOME DEEP LAYER QG FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
FOCUS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
RATHER ELONGATED WITH TIME AS THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES
NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST...AND COMBINED WITH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM
IN CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW.
CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A DROUGHT BUSTER.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE DAY WHILE ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MIGRATES SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SHOULD SEE A
CONTINUATION OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR)...BUT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR ZONES. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WILL BE QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL AS A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS/ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DESCENDS ON THE PENINSULA.

FRIDAY...1020+MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA
COAST PROVIDING A GENERAL EAST/NE SYNOPTIC FLOW INTO THE PENINSULA.
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE FAR TO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION OVER
ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA...AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF
THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (11-13C)...GOOD DIURNAL MIXING
SHOULD STILL PROVIDE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL MODELS TO DIG TOWARD THE
GULF COAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL KEEP
THE UPPER-TROUGH OPEN THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE GFS CLOSES OFF A LOW
OVER THE MID-WEST. IN EACH CASE...THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO OUR
WEST WHICH WILL SET UP A FEED OF MOISTURE-RICH AIR ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT. THE DEEPER LOW IN THE GFS WOULD BRING MORE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN GREATER OVERALL COVERAGE OF RAIN
WHILE THE MORE ELONGATED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN THE ECMWF WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH WOULD
FAVOR INLAND LOCATIONS IN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. I DO NOT FAVOR THE
DEEPER GFS SOLUTION BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT EITHER. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL USE A BLEND AND SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THE GFS WRAPS SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN RAIN CHANCES.

EITHER WAY...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW POTENTIALLY TRANSPORTING DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...WE SHOULD SEE 2 OR 3 DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR TODAY WITH SOME CUMULUS/SMALL SHOWERS MOVING IN
OFF THE GULF THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AROUND PIE AND TPA. OTHERWISE LAL MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND SUNRISE...THEN SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS THIS
EVENING FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FLOW WILL TURN TO NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN VEER EASTERLY FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ELEVATED WITH
PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TODAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE KEEPS RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ENOUGH OF DRIER AIR REACHING
THE NATURE COAST ZONES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  72  85  67 /  20  30  30   0
FMY  89  71  86  66 /  20  20  30   0
GIF  89  68  87  66 /  40  30  30   0
SRQ  85  73  83  67 /  20  30  30   0
BKV  86  69  85  61 /  30  30  20   0
SPG  84  74  83  70 /  20  30  30   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...JILLSON






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 658 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATER TONIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING IN AND DRY THINGS OUT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S BY FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND COULD STALL NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA KEEPING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. RELIED MAINLY ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HRRR FOR THE
FIRST 6-8 HOURS...AFTER THAT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY
WEATHER...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND THUS GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SIMILAR TO A MAV/MET
BLEND.

FOR POPS...SOME WEAK RADAR ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH MORE /AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER/ ECHOES IN NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. RAPID REFRESH IS DEPICTING THIS
FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS THESE ECHOES HOLDING TOGETHER AND CONTINUING
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. THUS INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST AND USED SCATTERED SHOWERS WORDING. HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE
STRIKE OF LIGHTNING WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELL IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
SO DO NOT THINK THERE IS A NEED TO ADD THUNDER AT THIS TIME. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST USED JUST A SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER ECHOES WILL STAY EAST OF THERE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM 0-2Z
AS IT COULD TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THIS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MOS VALUES FROM MAV AND MET
WERE VERY CLOSE AND USED AN AVERAGE FOR HIGHS STARTING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S THURSDAY AND CLIMBING TO THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING. THUS LEFT DRY POPS GOING BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP PRETTY QUICKLY AT
NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER BUT WILL SEE
SOME WARM ADVECTION TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THURSDAY /IN
THE 40S/ AND FRIDAY NIGHTS /UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

LOOKS LIKE A WET START TO THE EXTENDED...AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY
ON IN THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...BY 12Z MON THE GFS
PROGRESSES THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA QUICKER THAN
THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE POP ON
MONDAY THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL OCCUR. THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD APPEARS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN. STUCK CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND FOR TEMPS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR REGION WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR BY
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME 6 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING TO INDIANA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A FEW CU BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MRD/CP
AVIATION...JH











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 428 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATER TONIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING IN AND DRY THINGS OUT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S BY FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND COULD STALL NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA KEEPING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. RELIED MAINLY ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HRRR FOR THE
FIRST 6-8 HOURS...AFTER THAT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY
WEATHER...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND THUS GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SIMILAR TO A MAV/MET
BLEND.

FOR POPS...SOME WEAK RADAR ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH MORE /AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER/ ECHOES IN NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. RAPID REFRESH IS DEPICTING THIS
FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS THESE ECHOES HOLDING TOGETHER AND CONTINUING
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. THUS INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST AND USED SCATTERED SHOWERS WORDING. HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE
STRIKE OF LIGHTNING WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELL IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
SO DO NOT THINK THERE IS A NEED TO ADD THUNDER AT THIS TIME. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST USED JUST A SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER ECHOES WILL STAY EAST OF THERE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM 0-2Z
AS IT COULD TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THIS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MOS VALUES FROM MAV AND MET
WERE VERY CLOSE AND USED AN AVERAGE FOR HIGHS STARTING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S THURSDAY AND CLIMBING TO THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING. THUS LEFT DRY POPS GOING BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP PRETTY QUICKLY AT
NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER BUT WILL SEE
SOME WARM ADVECTION TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THURSDAY /IN
THE 40S/ AND FRIDAY NIGHTS /UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

LOOKS LIKE A WET START TO THE EXTENDED...AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY
ON IN THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...BY 12Z MON THE GFS
PROGRESSES THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA QUICKER THAN
THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE POP ON
MONDAY THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL OCCUR. THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD APPEARS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN. STUCK CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND FOR TEMPS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 092100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF PER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MAKING IT/S WAY THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA AND SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY COLUMN...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN REACHED IN MANY LOCATION ALREADY...PRODUCING SCT-BKN CU.
WITH CCL/S NEAR 4000 FT...ANY CIGS WILL BE VFR. A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON...PER THE RAPID
REFRESH BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION VCSH AT THIS
TIME...AND IN EITHER CASE THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE AN IMPACT OF THE
FLIGHT CATEGORY. AS HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET...CU WILL
DISSIPATE LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S...FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MRD/CP
AVIATION...SMF/JH








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 321 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATER TONIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING IN AND DRY THINGS OUT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S BY FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND COULD STALL NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA KEEPING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. RELIED MAINLY ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HRRR FOR THE
FIRST 6-8 HOURS...AFTER THAT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY
WEATHER...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND THUS GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SIMILAR TO A MAV/MET
BLEND.

FOR POPS...SOME WEAK RADAR ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH MORE /AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER/ ECHOES IN NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. RAPID REFRESH IS DEPICTING THIS
FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS THESE ECHOES HOLDING TOGETHER AND CONTINUING
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. THUS INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST AND USED SCATTERED SHOWERS WORDING. HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE
STRIKE OF LIGHTNING WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELL IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
SO DO NOT THINK THERE IS A NEED TO ADD THUNDER AT THIS TIME. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST USED JUST A SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER ECHOES WILL STAY EAST OF THERE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM 0-2Z
AS IT COULD TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THIS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MOS VALUES FROM MAV AND MET
WERE VERY CLOSE AND USED AN AVERAGE FOR HIGHS STARTING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S THURSDAY AND CLIMBING TO THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING. THUS LEFT DRY POPS GOING BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP PRETTY QUICKLY AT
NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER BUT WILL SEE
SOME WARM ADVECTION TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THURSDAY /IN
THE 40S/ AND FRIDAY NIGHTS /UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

LOOKS LIKE A WET START TO THE EXTENDED...AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY
ON IN THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...BY 12Z MON THE GFS
PROGRESSES THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA QUICKER THAN
THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE POP ON
MONDAY THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL OCCUR. THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD APPEARS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN. STUCK CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND FOR TEMPS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 091800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MAKING IT/S WAY THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA AND SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY COLUMN...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN REACHED IN MANY LOCATION ALREADY...PRODUCING SCT-BKN CU.
WITH CCL/S NEAR 4000 FT...ANY CIGS WILL BE VFR. A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON...PER THE RAPID
REFRESH BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION VCSH AT THIS
TIME...AND IN EITHER CASE THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE AN IMPACT OF THE
FLIGHT CATEGORY. AS HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET...CU WILL
DISSIPATE LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S...FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MRD/CP
AVIATION...SMF





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 157 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.AVIATION /06 UTC TAFS/...
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE BKN
CU FIELD TO RAPIDLY DVLP WITH INCREASED TURBULENT MIXING A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENT IN LAKE MODIFIED BLYR SHOULD
INITIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS CLOSE TO FUEL ALT/2KFT INVOF
KSBN...HIR FURTHER INLAND. CIGS TO GRDLY RISE WITH INCRSD SFC
HEATING TO DECIDEDLY VFR BY ERLY AFTN. TIMING OF LOBE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE IN ADVOF NCNTL WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE TO DROP SEWD INTO NRN IN
MIDDAY FOR TEMPO PD OF -SHRA AT KFWA WITH HIR PROB FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION...TSRA/CB POTNL...RELEGATED N/NE OF AIRFIELD IN CORE OF
MIDLVL COLD POOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS CLEARLY DEPICTING THE
MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
MN THAT WILL BE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE AN INCREASING SFC
GRADIENT ALONG WITH DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG REDEVELOPMENT. 12Z RAOBS
SHOWING -25C COLD POOL TO ACCOMPANY TROUGH AND RESULT IN VERY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA AND EVEN A FEW TSRA CURRENTLY SEEN OVER MN AND
WI WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. WILL USE THE TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL IN
TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES...BEGINNING IN THE NW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING IN THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN.
MAGNITUDE OF COLD POOL WILL ALSO FAVOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING TT GT 50...SO WILL ALSO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER HERE.  RESULTING TEMPS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN THIS PATTERN...5-10F BELOW NORMAL BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL REDVLP ACRS THE NE CONUS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
WRN RIDGING AMPLIFIES. THUS W/PATTN REORIENTING TWD YET ANOTHER
PNA...XPC DRY WX TO CONT AS W/NW FLW ALOFT CONTS AND LL RIDGING
PERSISTS ACRS THE GOMEX W/LTL IN WAY OF SIG LL MSTR RTN UNTIL PSBLY
AT THE END OF THE PD ON DY8. TEMPS THROUGH THE PD GENERALLY NR
NORMAL.

&&


.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOGSDON
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1126 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2012

BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY A FEW DEGREES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE LOW
80S. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGER
WINDS. GUIDANCE HAS THE WINDS DECREASING DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...BUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT WEAKEN MUCH.
WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2012

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER KANSAS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEHIND THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THERE
THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA. DYNAMICS APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A SMALL PORTION
OF YUMA COUNTY. POPS WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE FA FRIDAY. DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED THE AREA OF CHANCE
POPS FURTHER EAST.

PLAN TO KEEP CURRENT FROST ADVISORY GOING IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL
MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE FROST CATEGORY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S TONIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE UPPER 40S
IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2012

THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT
AND FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE AREA WILL
START WITH WESTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY SWITCHING TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF BUILDING HEIGHTS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD WHICH WILL PUT
THE AREA IN COOL UPSLOPE FLOW. CLOUDY SKIES AND DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MAINLY SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AT WHICH TIME INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS...WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST...WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
NIGHT THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...JTL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1024 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2012

BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY A FEW DEGREES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE LOW
80S. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGER
WINDS. GUIDANCE HAS THE WINDS DECREASING DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...BUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT WEAKEN MUCH.
WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2012

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER KANSAS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEHIND THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THERE
THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA. DYNAMICS APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A SMALL PORTION
OF YUMA COUNTY. POPS WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE FA FRIDAY. DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED THE AREA OF CHANCE
POPS FURTHER EAST.

PLAN TO KEEP CURRENT FROST ADVISORY GOING IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL
MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE FROST CATEGORY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S TONIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE UPPER 40S
IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2012

THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT
AND FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE AREA WILL
START WITH WESTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY SWITCHING TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF BUILDING HEIGHTS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD WHICH WILL PUT
THE AREA IN COOL UPSLOPE FLOW. CLOUDY SKIES AND DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MAINLY SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AT WHICH TIME INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...FS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 652 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 650 PM EDT WED May 9 2012

Scattered showers in central Indiana have been holding their own as
they push quickly to the southeast, and there has even been some new
development between Indy and Bloomington along with an increase in
lightning production.  The showers are only a couple counties away
from the LMK CWFA at this point, so a decision needed to be made
regarding PoPs this evening (which were dry).  After looking at KIND
radar and HRRR progs, have decided to go ahead and insert SCT/ISO
PoPs into the north, basically north of a line from Paoli to
Louisville to Lexington.  The showers should fizzle as they reach
the Blue Grass around mid-evening, and we have the PoPs stopping at
02Z.

.Short Term (Tonight through Thursday night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT May 9 2012

A weak upper disturbance is rotating southeast across the lower
Great Lakes region, sparking off not only widespread, high-based
strato-cu, but also showers and even a few storms across IL/IN/OH.
Most of this activity will stay to our north, however our
northeastern CWA could see some sprinkles perhaps by early evening.
By that time, clouds/precip will start to dissipate with the loss of
afternoon heating, so will keep just the sprinkle wording in the
grids. Best time frame/location will be between 5-10pm northeast of
a line from Louisville to Lexington. Until that timeframe, expect
gusty northwest winds and partly cloudy skies.

Once that trough swings through by roughly midnight, we`ll have
clearing skies thereafter as surface high pressure starts to slide
in from the west. Winds will become light and will help overnight
lows drop into the low-mid 40s north to around 50 south.

The center of the surface high will still be to our west Thursday,
so a steady northerly wind will be in place. Even a few gusts to
about 15 knots or so will be possible especially east of I-65
tomorrow with good mixing. Although skies will be sunny, a steady
northerly wind will keep temps around the same highs as today, maybe
even a tad cooler. Look for highs in the mid-upper 60s north and
east, to the low 70s over the southwest.

Thursday night should be the coolest night with the surface high
directly overhead. Winds will be calm, and with excellent
radiational cooling, lows will plummet into the low 40s most places.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few sheltered, Bluegrass locations
drop into the upper 30s.

.Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 318 PM EDT May 9 2012

Friday Through Sunday Night...

The Ohio Valley will start off in northwesterly flow on Friday as a
large trough exits in the northeast US and weak mid-level low moves
into the southern Plains.  High pressure will remain in control of
the weather with dry conditions Friday/Friday night.  Short term
shot of upper ridging ahead of the approaching southern Plains wave
will keep the region dry on Saturday, but we`ll likely see a quick
increase in cloud cover throughout the day.  Combination of
southerly return flow and isentropic ascent will likely lead to some
isolated showers/storms develop Saturday night especially across
southern KY.  Better moisture and synoptic scale lift look much
better on Sunday which looks to be rather dreary with extensive
cloud cover and scattered to numerous showers/storms dotting the
region as the upper wave moves across the region.  Clouds and
convection are likely to continue Sunday night as the upper wave
slowly moves east and a surface low and cold front push through the
region.  Basically have done an incremental update here as the
previous forecast has this well handled.  Given the increasing
forecast convergence here, have raised PoPs a little during the
Sun/Sun night period.

Highs Friday and Saturday will generally be in the mid-upper 70s but
cool into the lower 70s for Sunday.  Overnight temps look to remain
rather mild with readings in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

Monday through Wednesday...

This afternoons long term deterministic and ensemble guidance is in
general agreement with the upper level flow across the CONUS in this
time frame.  By and large, the models suggest that a large ridge
will build across the western US early in the period which will
force a downstream trough to develop across the eastern US.  A
decent mid-level wave looks to crash into the western US coast by
late in the period which will likely knock down that western ridge.
Considerable spread exists in the height fields across the east
during the period with regards to whether we`ll see a closed low
develop.  The 09/00Z and 09/12Z GFS offer the one extreme with a
very pronounced cut off low developing over the east and then
meandering slowly to the east as the flow becomes a bit more zonal.
The 09/00Z and 09/12Z GFS ensembles are not as robust with the upper
low development and actually have a little less spread when compared
with the 09/00Z and 09/12Z OP Euro and its ensembles.  Suffice to
say, forecast confidence is average at the beginning of the period
with confidence dropping in the day 6/7 (Tue/Wed) timeframe as the
uncertainty with possible closed low develop complicate the
forecast.  With this issuance, have leaned closer the 12Z GFS
Ensemble and Euro solutions which gives decent continuity to the
previous forecast.

This period of the forecast will likely be a rather unsettled one
with the upper trough being situated over the eastern US.  Variable
cloudiness is likely with chances of rain throughout the period.  It
does seem likely that the best chances of precipitation would be in
the Monday/Tuesday time frame as the trough moves over us with
lesser chances on Wednesday as the GEFS/Euro solutions are slightly
more progressive.  For now, will keep slight to low chance PoPs
going with a drier trend for Wednesday.  Depending on how the upper
level pattern evolves, future forecasts will likely need some
adjustments over the next few days.  As for temperatures, readings
should generally be a little below average with daytime highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 50s.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 650 PM EDT May 9 2012

Gusty winds at the terminals are expected through the next couple of
hours until the atmosphere decouples. The CU field has also already
begun to dissipate with clear skies expected overnight. Winds will
be fairly light out of the NNE through the overnight hours. Surface
high pressure will slide into the area tomorrow. Cloud cover will be
fairly limited, though some CU may develop. Winds will be out of the
north and lighter than today, in generally the 7-12 knot range, with
a few higher gusts. Winds will begin to shift to the east after 0Z
tomorrow at SDF as the high pressure shifts eastward.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........13
Short Term.......AL
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........EER





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 330 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT WILL
MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MAINE
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE USED POP FROM RADAR TOOL TO INITIALIZE POP GRIDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THEN BLEND THIS WITH HRRR POPS LATER IN DAY. FOR TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12...GFS40 AND SREF FOR
POPS. HAVE MADE SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING POPS TO 100
PERCENT DURING HIGHEST PROBABILITY PERIODS. CURRENTLY ONE AREA OF
RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH GULF OF MAINE BUT EXPECT MOST OF
THIS TO STAY OFF-SHORE. FOR QPF HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
CANADIAN...GFS40...NAM80...ECMWF AND SREF. THE OPERATIONAL NAM
GIVES HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT THINK THIS IS TOO HIGH. SREF NUMBERS ARE
MUCH LOWER THAN OPERATIONAL NAM AND SREF 24-HR PROBABILITY GREATER
THAN TWO INCHES IS UNDER 40 PERCENT...EVEN IN VICINITY OF EASTPORT
WHICH IS CLOSES TO HIGHEST MOST MODEL QPF MAXIMUMS. ALSO MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES JET MAXIMUM FURTHER TO SOUTHEAST. THIS ALL
SUPPORTS THINKING THAT CURRENT OPERATIONAL NAM QPF IS TOO HIGH.
FOR WINDS HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GMOS. TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT GENERATED WITH THE GMOS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE STEADIER RAIN ENDING
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RATHER NICE DAY SATURDAY
AS BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND THEN BE NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. A LOW OVER NR QUEBEC...AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE ERNA SEABOARD ARE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THESES SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A NEW LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING
THE GS AND EMF ARE SHOWING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION THE RESULTING
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR. THE GS DEEPENS THE LOW AND KEEPS IT
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TR OF EXTENDING NE INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. THE EMF MOVE THE LOW NORTH INTO NR MS. WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS. BY MONDAY EVENING
THE GS MOVES THE LOW INTO SEN MS... THE LOW OVER QUEBEC SWINGS SE
INTO SEN QUEBEC. A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE ERNA
SEABOARD EXTENDING BTW THESE TWO LOWS. AT THIS POINT THE EMF
AGREES WITH THE GS ON THE QUEBEC LOW AND COLD FRONT. THE SEN LOW
ORV ERNA AL. ORV THE NEXT 24HRS THE FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY ALONG
THE ERNA SEABOARD WITH THE SEN LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE FRONTAL
BINDERY. THE GS MOVES IT NE INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE VA/NC
BORDER. THE EMF NE TO SEN PA/NR VA. THE NR LOW EAST INTO THE
WREN CANADIAN MARI TIMES. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC (GS)...INTO THE SEN GULF OF MAINE
WATERS (EMF). BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE THE
FRONT EAST OF THE AREA...A WRAP AROUND LOW WILL BACK INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING A NEW LOW MOVE SE
OUT OF NR CANADA AND INTO NR ME BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED GM OS...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THE
MID PORTION OF THE FORECAST. POPS TO HIGH FOR THE SKY CON FORECAST.
LOADED NA WAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 20 PERCENT
FOR ENDS ORV THE WATERS...15 PERCENT ORV LAND.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY FR THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IN ANY SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 WINDS WHICH APPEARS TO BE DOING THE
BEST JOB OF HANDLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WAVES: VERY LONG FETCH IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHEASTWARD WELL INTO
ATLANTIC. EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THIS FETCH TO EFFECT WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WNA/WAVE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WIND SPEED
ACROSS THIS FETCH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THINK WNA WINDS A LITTLE
TOO HIGH IN GULF OF MAINE DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
UNDER WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN INVERSION....HOWEVER WINDS
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF FETCH LOOKS REASONABLE. HAVE USED SWAN/NAM
TO INITIALIZE WAVES FOR THIS PERIOD. WILL INCREASE SWAN WAVE
HEIGHTS 1 TO 2 FEET LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF SWAN LOOKS GOOD. WILL USE LAMP25 FOR
VISIBILITY. HAVE EXTEND SCA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DROP
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR
WAVES USED SWAN NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG
THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND THEN TRACK NORTHWARD MOVING ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY BY THURSDAY EVENING. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE FOR HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL BROOKS AND
STREAMS AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW
LYING SPOTS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 147 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL FRONT ALMOST STALLED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING THIS MOVING ONLY SLOWLY EAST
WHILE A STRONGER FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY CATCHES UP WITH IT THIS
EVENING. HAVE ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE INITIAL FRONT.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FARTHER
WEST CAN SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND ENHANCING IR IMAGE. THIS
CORRESPONDS TO INCREASING DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET. MODELS MOVE
THIS AREA INTO MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO WITH STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAX
MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT AS WELL.
SO PLENTY OF RAIN AND SOME OF IT WILL BE QUITE HEAVY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

PLENTY OF QUESTION ON THUNDERSTORMS AND IF ANY WILL BE SEVERE. DO
HAVE A FEW BREAKS IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA BUT THIS WILL FILL IN
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS LIMITS THE HEATING. ALSO LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY WEAK LIMITING INSTABILITY. ALSO WHILE THE SHEAR
DOES INCREASE TOWARD EVENING BY THEN THE INSTABILITY IS WEAKENING.
DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDER THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONG
LIFT AND CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST BUT EXPECT
ANY SEVERE TO BE VERY LIMITED.

BECAUSE OF SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS IN THE WEST RAISED MAXES THERE A
LITTLE WHILE LOWERED THEM FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS CORRESPONDS
WELL WITH HRRR AND RUC AS WELL AS GRIDDED LAMP DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A "JUMP" IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COASTAL SECTIONS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEHIND FIRST EXITING S/W. SECOND (POST FRONTAL) IMPULSE
THEN PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING
KEEPING CATEGORICAL POPS GOING MOST AREAS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED
EAST OF I95 AND HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE COUNTIES
AROUND AND EAST OF THE CHES BAY THIS EVENING. ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDS
QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PCPN CHANCES
QUICKLY TAPER OFF (AND END ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FA) AS SECOND S/W
PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS FALL INTO THE 50S AS CAA REMAINS
RATHER WEAK. EXPECT A WIDE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. AROUND .50 INCH
ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES UPWARDS TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SERN
AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

SOME LINGERING SHWRS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS PUSH OFFSHORE
ARND 12Z THURSDAY. LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD INTO
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. LINGERING WRAP ARND MSTR MAY
ENHANCE AFTERNOON SC ACROSS LWR MD ERN SHORE THURSDAY. OTW...TSCTNS
SHOW A QUICK COLUMN DRYING SO IT SHOULD END UP M SUNNY. DESPITE THE
INCREASING SUNSHINE...CAA KEEPS TEMPS IN THE L-M70S. CLEAR AND COOL
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS M40S-M50S. RIDGE AXIS STILL WEST OF FA FRIDAY.
M SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHING BY MONDAY. RETURN FLOW RESULTS IN A GRADUAL WARMUP.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS HIGHS THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN 75-80 SO HAVE BUMBED
UP TEMPS A BIT. PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO A WET PATTERN TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE SOME CHANGES THAT COULD AFFECT
OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE FCST. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GULF
COAST REGION AND BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN BY TUESDAY. WENT NO
HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT THIS FAR OUT AS THE TIMING COULD CHANGE.

HIGHS IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONVECTION POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SE PORTIONS AND INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM AT ORF 19-21Z WITH
TSTMS TO THE SW NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. UPDATE FOR RIC MAY BE NEEDED
AS ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL VA NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL MONITOR FOR PSBL TSTM POTENTIAL AT ECG TOWARDS EVENING.

PCPN EXPECTED FOR 3-5 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. IFR CEILINGS ARE
A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT ORF/ECG DURING THIS TIME PER NAM MOS AND
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ANAFRONTAL SITUATIONS. WINDS TURN TO NW/N AROUND
02-06Z FROM NW TO SE WITH AN INITIAL EXTRA VEERING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT (ESPECIALLY AT ORF). WINDS TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRATOCU POTENTIAL AFTER AROUND 14-15Z.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO IFR EXPECTED
FRI MRNG DUE TO LOW DEW POINTS AND A NW BREEZE DESPITE WET GROUND.
CHC PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES PERSISTS OFF TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TDY. SCA HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WHERE
WAVES HAVE STAYED BELO 4 FT. ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE JUST
BELO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY...AND SPEEDS SHUD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY
AS THE 925 MB JET STREAK WEAKENS. THE SCA OVR COASTAL WATERS
CONTINUES THRU TNGT WITH 4-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A PROLONGED S/SE FETCH AND 15-20 KT WINDS. WINDS OVR THE BAY MAY
REACH SCA THRESHOLDS FOR A SHORT DURATION TNGT WITH THE
FROPA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS ATTM DUE TO
THE SHORT DURATION AND TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

BEYOND TNGT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE COLD FRNT THU WITH W/NW WINDS. ANOTHER WEAK SURGE MAY
ARRIVE FRI MRNG. QUIET CONDS OVR THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRES IN PLACE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR/LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 1017 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL FRONT ALMOST STALLED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING THIS MOVING ONLY SLOWLY EAST
WHILE A STRONGER FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY CATCHES UP WITH IT THIS
EVENING. HAVE ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE INITIAL FRONT.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FARTHER
WEST CAN SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND ENHANCING IR IMAGE. THIS
CORRESPONDS TO INCREASING DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET. MODELS MOVE
THIS AREA INTO MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO WITH STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAX
MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT AS WELL.
SO PLENTY OF RAIN AND SOME OF IT WILL BE QUITE HEAVY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

PLENTY OF QUESTION ON THUNDERSTORMS AND IF ANY WILL BE SEVERE. DO
HAVE A FEW BREAKS IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA BUT THIS WILL FILL IN
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS LIMITS THE HEATING. ALSO LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY WEAK LIMITING INSTABILITY. ALSO WHILE THE SHEAR
DOES INCREASE TOWARD EVENING BY THEN THE INSTABILITY IS WEAKENING.
DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDER THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONG
LIFT AND CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST BUT EXPECT
ANY SEVERE TO BE VERY LIMITED.

BECAUSE OF SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS IN THE WEST RAISED MAXES THERE A
LITTLE WHILE LOWERED THEM FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS CORRESPONDS
WELL WITH HRRR AND RUC AS WELL AS GRIDDED LAMP DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A "JUMP" IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COASTAL SECTIONS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEHIND FIRST EXITING S/W. SECOND (POST FRONTAL) IMPULSE
THEN PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING
KEEPING CATEGORICAL POPS GOING MOST AREAS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED
EAST OF I95 AND HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE COUNTIES
AROUND AND EAST OF THE CHES BAY THIS EVENING. ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDS
QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PCPN CHANCES
QUICKLY TAPER OFF (AND END ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FA) AS SECOND S/W
PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS FALL INTO THE 50S AS CAA REMAINS
RATHER WEAK. EXPECT A WIDE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. AROUND .50 INCH
ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES UPWARDS TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SERN
AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

SOME LINGERING SHWRS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS PUSH OFFSHORE
ARND 12Z THURSDAY. LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD INTO
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. LINGERING WRAP ARND MSTR MAY
ENHANCE AFTERNOON SC ACROSS LWR MD ERN SHORE THURSDAY. OTW...TSCTNS
SHOW A QUICK COLUMN DRYING SO IT SHOULD END UP M SUNNY. DESPITE THE
INCREASING SUNSHINE...CAA KEEPS TEMPS IN THE L-M70S. CLEAR AND COOL
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS M40S-M50S. RIDGE AXIS STILL WEST OF FA FRIDAY.
M SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHING BY MONDAY. RETURN FLOW RESULTS IN A GRADUAL WARMUP.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS HIGHS THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN 75-80 SO HAVE BUMBED
UP TEMPS A BIT. PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO A WET PATTERN TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE SOME CHANGES THAT COULD AFFECT
OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE FCST. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GULF
COAST REGION AND BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN BY TUESDAY. WENT NO
HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT THIS FAR OUT AS THE TIMING COULD CHANGE.

HIGHS IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRNT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
IN MVFR/VFR CLOUD DECKS THRU THE MRNG HRS. TEMPO GROUP INCLUDED
FOR -RA AT ALL TAF SITES OVR NEXT FEW HRS WITH HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BUT KEPT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL...SE VA/NE
NC WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS. LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THU MRNG AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. VFR CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES PERSISTS OFF TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TDY. SCA HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WHERE
WAVES HAVE STAYED BELO 4 FT. ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE JUST
BELO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY...AND SPEEDS SHUD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY
AS THE 925 MB JET STREAK WEAKENS. THE SCA OVR COASTAL WATERS
CONTINUES THRU TNGT WITH 4-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A PROLONGED S/SE FETCH AND 15-20 KT WINDS. WINDS OVR THE BAY MAY
REACH SCA THRESHOLDS FOR A SHORT DURATION TNGT WITH THE
FROPA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS ATTM DUE TO
THE SHORT DURATION AND TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

BEYOND TNGT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE COLD FRNT THU WITH W/NW WINDS. ANOTHER WEAK SURGE MAY
ARRIVE FRI MRNG. QUIET CONDS OVR THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRES IN PLACE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR/LSA
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 956 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...THEN WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL HOLD
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE CWFA. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP.

LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA AFTER 18Z. THIS LINE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE MARGINAL
SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z
THURSDAY...TAKING THE RAINFALL WITH IT. MODELS SHOW DECENT COLD/DRY
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY ON NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH SUNSHINE AND
COLD ADVECTION THERE WILL BE DECENT MIXING FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
EAST OF THE MTNS WILL HELP OFFSET THE IMPACT OF COLD ADVECTION
SOME. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT MINIMA AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...AROUND 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE TO LOWER TO
MID 40S IN THE SUBURBS AND MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK ABOVE CLIMO FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS/MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS FRIDAY/SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN
FLOW LIKELY TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BUT IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE CWA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIGS AT THE TERMINAL SITES ARE MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. DO EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINAL SITES THIS AFT/EVE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND
HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN IMPACT ON THURSDAY WILL BE
WINDS...FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTING AOA 25 KT FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THEN
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 8 AM. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AOB 15 KT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE AID OF COLD ADVECTION LOOK TO BRING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. THEY MAY
LINGER INTO THE EVENING /FOURTH PERIOD/ HOWEVER WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE DID NOT EXTEND SCA THIS FAR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND. STILL MAY HAVE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY...THEN LESS WIND EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES CONTINUE AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM FOR THE MORNING/MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE NORTHERN
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER NEAR
ALEXANDRIA AND WASHINGTON D.C. ADVISORY IS MAINLY FOR SENSITIVE
AREAS VULNERABLE TO MINOR COASTLINE INUNDATION...SUCH AS
ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ007-011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...LISTEMAA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 731 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW/SW CANADA. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
ROCKIES TO HUDSON BAY. THE ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DRY
AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TODAY. NARROW STREAK OF MID CLOUDS
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM FAR NE MANITOBA SSE TO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN
A RIBBON OF WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE ERN FCST AREA THIS MORNING. NAM/GFS SHOW CONDENSATION PRES
DEFICITS RISING A BIT THRU THE MORNING...SO THERE MAY BE TREND FOR
MID CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS THEY STREAK SSE. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR MASS TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DEEP MIXING
UPWARDS OF 750-700MB PER 00Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS AND NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S/AROUND 70 W AND
LOW/MID 60S E. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE THE RULE IN THE AFTN TO PROVIDE
COOLING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. UNDER DRY AIR MASS...AFTN RH WILL BE
LOW...FALLING INTO THE 20-30PCT RANGE. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS E TONIGHT...S TO SW GRADIENT FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. BEFORE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT...TEMPS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL...TEMP FALL THIS EVENING
SHOULDN`T BE ANY MORE THAN TYPICAL. AIR MASS IS DRIER OVER THE
E...SO MIN TEMPS THERE WILL BE LOWEST...PROBABLY IN THE UPPER 30S IN
THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. OTHERWISE...40S SHOULD BE THE RULE
TONIGHT WITH THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OUT W.

MIDLEVEL TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW/SW CANADA
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FRI WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO UPPER MI. TIMING OF FRONT IS OVERALL WELL AGREED UPON BY
THE MODELS WITH MOST SHOWING FRONT REACHING WRN UPPER MI 18-21Z AND
THEN EXTENDING FROM NE LAKE SUPERIOR TO ROUGHLY KMQT/KIMT BY 00Z.
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF FRONT...IT WILL BE A WARM DAY AS
850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF 10-12C SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE W AND CNTRL AS STRONGER S/SW
WINDS WILL PREVENT LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS...POSSIBLY REACHING 80F IF THICKER CLOUDS
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH. TO THE E...SRLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
KEEP THE E COOLER. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 50S LAKESIDE E OF
KESC TO AROUND 70 TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH HIGHER TEMPS...AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND RH FALLING INTO THE 30-40PCT RANGE...FIRE
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE FRI IN THOSE AREAS THAT FAILED TO RECEIVE
MUCH RAINFALL DURING THE LAST WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...NARROW RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SHRA CONFINED TO A NARROW CORRIDOR
VCNTY OF FRONT. INCLUDED CHC POPS JUST AFTER 18Z W...SPREADING TO
THE ERN FCST AREA AT 00Z. WHILE THUNDER POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL WITH
GFS MLCAPES 100-200J/KG...THE NAM SHOWS MLCAPE BRIEFLY RISING TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG TOWARD THE WI BORDER...SUGGESTING THUNDER CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. THUS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION.
SHRA WILL END W TO E FRI NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT MAKE STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

SHRA WILL END W TO E FRI NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT MAKE STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS AND RDG BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SAT SO HAVE REMOVED POPS
AND PCPN FROM SAT FCST. VERY DRY AIRMASS ASSOC WITH SFC RDG WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SAT AND CONTINUE INTO SUN LEADING TO LOW
MIN RH/S AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND DEEP
DAYTIME MIXING TO H775 AND POSSIBLY H750. EXPECT DEWPOINT VALUES TO
FALL THROUGH THE AFTN ON SAT AND SUN AS DRIER AIR MIXES TO THE
SFC...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA. MODEL ML DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE WEST ON SAT AND IN THE
MID 20S ON SUNDAY WHILE DEWPOINTS DROP INTO LOWER 30S BOTH DAYS
EAST...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN DEW POINTS FOR GRIDS
OVER BOTH DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF LOWERING DEW POINTS AND HIGH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE
RH VALUES ON SAT BTWN 20-25 PERCENT AND PERHAPS EVEN THE UPPER TEENS
WEST. WITH NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WX
CONCERNS...BUT HOPEFULLY THE 0.1 INCH OF RAIN ON FRI NIGHT WILL HELP
LIMIT THEM. FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND DEW
POINTS LOWERING TO MID 20S COULD DRIVE RH/S AGAIN INTO THE 20-25 PCT
RANGE AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER TEENS AT SOME WRN LOCATIONS.

SHORTWAVE ASSOC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY LOOKS TO STAY
GENERALLY WELL NORTH OF THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
MODEL CONSENSUS SO WILL GO WITH DRY FCST FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/S MOVING THROUGH UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN NW FLOW FOR TUE THROUGH THU TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE
FOR MEASURABLE PCPN IS LOW AT THIS POINT SO HAVE NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN FCST FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THU.

TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN BY TUE/WED AND THEN WARMING UP ABV
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

EXPECT DRY HI PRES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LKS TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL 3 SITES TNGT. A GUSTY S WIND BTWN THIS DEPARTING HI AND AN
APRCHG COLD FNT WL DVLP ON FRI...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD/
SAW LOCATIONS. BUT LINGERING DRYNESS WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A SHARP WSHFT FOLLOWING THE AFTN FROPA AT CMX/IWD...AND SOME
-SHRA/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PSBL AT THESE 2 SITES AFTER THE FROPA. THE
MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION WL SEE GUSTY WNW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA
AS WELL. AT SAW...THE FROPA WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 12/00Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVR MOST OF LK SUPERIOR TONIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT WINDS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 15KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE WINDS STAY BELOW
20KTS DURING THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE LK SUPERIOR
REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 216 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

CLOUD FCST FM EARLIER TODAY DID NOT WORK OUT TOO WELL. SC/CU FORMED
BUT IT WAS MORE OVR CNTRL CWA WHILE THE EAST COMPLETELY CLEARED OUT
WITH STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR. UPDATED GRIDS TO KEEP SCT CU
IN OVR CNTRL CWA UNTIL LATE AFTN BUT CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT STILL EXPECTING LOW TEMPS
TO FALL INTO UPR 20S TO MID 30S.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO NUNAVUT
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...A QUIET 2-3 DAYS ARE ON THE WAY AS THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS E IN RESPONSE TO TROF MOVING INLAND FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA. TROF WILL REACH THE UPPER LAKES LATE FRI...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHC OF -SHRA. AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY...A WARMING TREND WILL
GET UNDER WAY THU AND FRI AS WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROF.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

WITH TROF AXIS SHIFTING SE OF UPPER MI...BACK EDGE OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING STEADILY SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ATTM. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN AN ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE SENSE IS NOTED
UPSTREAM PER 00Z CWPL SOUNDING WHICH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
0.24 INCHES (AROUND 50PCT OF NORMAL) AND DWPT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY
IN THE 10-25C RANGE FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 500MB. WITH THE INFLUX OF
DRY AIR...THE FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES NOTED ON KMQT RADAR WILL END IN
THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE TODAY. NOT
MUCH DIURNAL CU WAS NOTED UPSTREAM IN NRN ONTARIO YESTERDAY AFTN.
SHOULD BE A SIMILAR SITUATION HERE TODAY. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
THE CU RULE WHICH SUGGESTS SCT DEVELOPMENT EARLIER IN THE DAY BEFORE
MIXING OF DRIER AIR BEGINS TO EAT AWAY AT THE CU. STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF COOL FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP DAYTIME CU
INLAND...WITH CU PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER INLAND WITH TIME AS MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE EXPANDS S. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH 850MB
THERMAL TROF AROUND 0C SLOWLY SLIPPING E DURING THE AFTN. LOCATIONS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE SHOULD HOLD TO THE LOW/MID
40S...COOLEST OVER THE E. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 TOWARD THE WI BORDER...WHICH IS INLINE WITH
UPSTREAM TEMPS IN NRN ONTARIO YESTERDAY.

AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A CHILLY/FROSTY
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...
RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO CALM/NEAR CALM UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING 50-75PCT OF NORMAL...
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS IN
THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY W HALF...MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. THAT
SAID...ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE THAT MAY LIMIT COOLING IS SOME CLOUD
COVER. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER NRN MANITOBA AT
THE NOSE OF SOME WAA COULD DROP SE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SINCE THAT
WAA WEAKENS TO THE SE...EXPECT THE MID CLOUDS TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE AREA. OBVIOUSLY...CLOUD
TRENDS UPSTREAM TODAY WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE AFFECT ON MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

UNDER SUNNY SKIES...A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED THU WITH HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 6 TO 10C BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
SHOULD RULE LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN TO PROVIDE COOLING NEAR THE
LAKES. MIXING UPWARDS OF 750MB YIELDS MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F OVER THE
INTERIOR W. TEMPS LAKESIDE WILL BE IN THE 40S/50S...DEPENDING ON HOW
EARLY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS AT EACH LOCATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 00Z
FRI WITH TROUGHING AND A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN
U.S...A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH NEAR IN NE MEXICO...AND A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE 500 MB RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING IN FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE SAME THING FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. WHAT THAT WILL
MEAN IS CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS THE FRONT AND NARROW BAND
OF PCPN MOVE OUT. REMOVED POPS OVER THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT IS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN. THIS IS THE ONLY
CHANGE I MADE IN THE MID TERM. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND LEFT
THEM ALONE FOR THE MOST PART.

IN THE EXTENDED...PROLONGED DRY PERIOD CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE ON TUESDAY. ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
STAYING IN A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH...BUT ALL THE DYNAMICS STAY NORTH
OF THE AREA UNTIL A TROUGH DIGS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

THE DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE DONE AS NO SHIP OBS OR
OBSERVATION HAVE SHOWN IT THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CARIBOU ISLAND HAS
A 6 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD. THE DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE
LAKE AND HELPED TO DISSIPATE THE FOG. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...07








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 204 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. ADDED FOG THROUGH 14Z OVR FAR WEST BUT
THIS IS FADING FAST. TWEAKED SKY COVER UP OVER EASTERN CWA FOR
MORNING AS THERMAL TROUGH /H85 TEMPS -2C/ SLIDES IN ON PERIPHERY
OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES. RUC 900MB RH SHOWS THIS
WELL BUT ALSO INDICATES DAYTIME MIXING AND STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK
SUPERIOR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE CLOUDS BY EARLY AFTN.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO NUNAVUT
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...A QUIET 2-3 DAYS ARE ON THE WAY AS THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS E IN RESPONSE TO TROF MOVING INLAND FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA. TROF WILL REACH THE UPPER LAKES LATE FRI...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHC OF -SHRA. AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY...A WARMING TREND WILL
GET UNDER WAY THU AND FRI AS WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROF.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

WITH TROF AXIS SHIFTING SE OF UPPER MI...BACK EDGE OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING STEADILY SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ATTM. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN AN ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE SENSE IS NOTED
UPSTREAM PER 00Z CWPL SOUNDING WHICH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
0.24 INCHES (AROUND 50PCT OF NORMAL) AND DWPT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY
IN THE 10-25C RANGE FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 500MB. WITH THE INFLUX OF
DRY AIR...THE FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES NOTED ON KMQT RADAR WILL END IN
THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE TODAY. NOT
MUCH DIURNAL CU WAS NOTED UPSTREAM IN NRN ONTARIO YESTERDAY AFTN.
SHOULD BE A SIMILAR SITUATION HERE TODAY. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
THE CU RULE WHICH SUGGESTS SCT DEVELOPMENT EARLIER IN THE DAY BEFORE
MIXING OF DRIER AIR BEGINS TO EAT AWAY AT THE CU. STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF COOL FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP DAYTIME CU
INLAND...WITH CU PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER INLAND WITH TIME AS MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE EXPANDS S. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH 850MB
THERMAL TROF AROUND 0C SLOWLY SLIPPING E DURING THE AFTN. LOCATIONS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE SHOULD HOLD TO THE LOW/MID
40S...COOLEST OVER THE E. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 TOWARD THE WI BORDER...WHICH IS INLINE WITH
UPSTREAM TEMPS IN NRN ONTARIO YESTERDAY.

AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A CHILLY/FROSTY
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...
RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO CALM/NEAR CALM UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING 50-75PCT OF NORMAL...
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS IN
THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY W HALF...MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. THAT
SAID...ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE THAT MAY LIMIT COOLING IS SOME CLOUD
COVER. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER NRN MANITOBA AT
THE NOSE OF SOME WAA COULD DROP SE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SINCE THAT
WAA WEAKENS TO THE SE...EXPECT THE MID CLOUDS TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE AREA. OBVIOUSLY...CLOUD
TRENDS UPSTREAM TODAY WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE AFFECT ON MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

UNDER SUNNY SKIES...A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED THU WITH HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 6 TO 10C BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
SHOULD RULE LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN TO PROVIDE COOLING NEAR THE
LAKES. MIXING UPWARDS OF 750MB YIELDS MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F OVER THE
INTERIOR W. TEMPS LAKESIDE WILL BE IN THE 40S/50S...DEPENDING ON HOW
EARLY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS AT EACH LOCATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 00Z
FRI WITH TROUGHING AND A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN
U.S...A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH NEAR IN NE MEXICO...AND A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE 500 MB RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING IN FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE SAME THING FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. WHAT THAT WILL
MEAN IS CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS THE FRONT AND NARROW BAND
OF PCPN MOVE OUT. REMOVED POPS OVER THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT IS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN. THIS IS THE ONLY
CHANGE I MADE IN THE MID TERM. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND LEFT
THEM ALONE FOR THE MOST PART.

IN THE EXTENDED...PROLONGED DRY PERIOD CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE ON TUESDAY. ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
STAYING IN A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH...BUT ALL THE DYNAMICS STAY NORTH
OF THE AREA UNTIL A TROUGH DIGS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

THE DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE DONE AS NO SHIP OBS OR
OBSERVATION HAVE SHOWN IT THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CARIBOU ISLAND HAS
A 6 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD. THE DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE
LAKE AND HELPED TO DISSIPATE THE FOG. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...07










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 921 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. ADDED FOG THROUGH 14Z OVR FAR WEST BUT
THIS IS FADING FAST. TWEAKED SKY COVER UP OVER EASTERN CWA FOR
MORNING AS THERMAL TROUGH /H85 TEMPS -2C/ SLIDES IN ON PERIPHERY
OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES. RUC 900MB RH SHOWS THIS
WELL BUT ALSO INDICATES DAYTIME MIXING AND STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK
SUPERIOR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE CLOUDS BY EARLY AFTN. &&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO NUNAVUT
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...A QUIET 2-3 DAYS ARE ON THE WAY AS THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS E IN RESPONSE TO TROF MOVING INLAND FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA. TROF WILL REACH THE UPPER LAKES LATE FRI...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHC OF -SHRA. AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY...A WARMING TREND WILL
GET UNDER WAY THU AND FRI AS WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROF.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

WITH TROF AXIS SHIFTING SE OF UPPER MI...BACK EDGE OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING STEADILY SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ATTM. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN AN ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE SENSE IS NOTED
UPSTREAM PER 00Z CWPL SOUNDING WHICH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
0.24 INCHES (AROUND 50PCT OF NORMAL) AND DWPT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY
IN THE 10-25C RANGE FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 500MB. WITH THE INFLUX OF
DRY AIR...THE FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES NOTED ON KMQT RADAR WILL END IN
THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE TODAY. NOT
MUCH DIURNAL CU WAS NOTED UPSTREAM IN NRN ONTARIO YESTERDAY AFTN.
SHOULD BE A SIMILAR SITUATION HERE TODAY. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
THE CU RULE WHICH SUGGESTS SCT DEVELOPMENT EARLIER IN THE DAY BEFORE
MIXING OF DRIER AIR BEGINS TO EAT AWAY AT THE CU. STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF COOL FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP DAYTIME CU
INLAND...WITH CU PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER INLAND WITH TIME AS MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE EXPANDS S. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH 850MB
THERMAL TROF AROUND 0C SLOWLY SLIPPING E DURING THE AFTN. LOCATIONS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE SHOULD HOLD TO THE LOW/MID
40S...COOLEST OVER THE E. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 TOWARD THE WI BORDER...WHICH IS INLINE WITH
UPSTREAM TEMPS IN NRN ONTARIO YESTERDAY.

AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A CHILLY/FROSTY
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...
RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO CALM/NEAR CALM UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING 50-75PCT OF NORMAL...
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS IN
THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY W HALF...MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. THAT
SAID...ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE THAT MAY LIMIT COOLING IS SOME CLOUD
COVER. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER NRN MANITOBA AT
THE NOSE OF SOME WAA COULD DROP SE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SINCE THAT
WAA WEAKENS TO THE SE...EXPECT THE MID CLOUDS TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE AREA. OBVIOUSLY...CLOUD
TRENDS UPSTREAM TODAY WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE AFFECT ON MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

UNDER SUNNY SKIES...A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED THU WITH HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 6 TO 10C BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
SHOULD RULE LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN TO PROVIDE COOLING NEAR THE
LAKES. MIXING UPWARDS OF 750MB YIELDS MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F OVER THE
INTERIOR W. TEMPS LAKESIDE WILL BE IN THE 40S/50S...DEPENDING ON HOW
EARLY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS AT EACH LOCATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 00Z
FRI WITH TROUGHING AND A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN
U.S...A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH NEAR IN NE MEXICO...AND A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE 500 MB RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING IN FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE SAME THING FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. WHAT THAT WILL
MEAN IS CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS THE FRONT AND NARROW BAND
OF PCPN MOVE OUT. REMOVED POPS OVER THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT IS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN. THIS IS THE ONLY
CHANGE I MADE IN THE MID TERM. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND LEFT
THEM ALONE FOR THE MOST PART.

IN THE EXTENDED...PROLONGED DRY PERIOD CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE ON TUESDAY. ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
STAYING IN A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH...BUT ALL THE DYNAMICS STAY NORTH
OF THE AREA UNTIL A TROUGH DIGS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING AHEAD OF HIGH PRES WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

THE DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE DONE AS NO SHIP OBS OR
OBSERVATION HAVE SHOWN IT THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CARIBOU ISLAND HAS
A 6 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD. THE DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE
LAKE AND HELPED TO DISSIPATE THE FOG. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07













AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 700 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO NUNAVUT
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...A QUIET 2-3 DAYS ARE ON THE WAY AS THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS E IN RESPONSE TO TROF MOVING INLAND FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA. TROF WILL REACH THE UPPER LAKES LATE FRI...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHC OF -SHRA. AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY...A WARMING TREND WILL
GET UNDER WAY THU AND FRI AS WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROF.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

WITH TROF AXIS SHIFTING SE OF UPPER MI...BACK EDGE OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING STEADILY SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ATTM. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN AN ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE SENSE IS NOTED
UPSTREAM PER 00Z CWPL SOUNDING WHICH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
0.24 INCHES (AROUND 50PCT OF NORMAL) AND DWPT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY
IN THE 10-25C RANGE FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 500MB. WITH THE INFLUX OF
DRY AIR...THE FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES NOTED ON KMQT RADAR WILL END IN
THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE TODAY. NOT
MUCH DIURNAL CU WAS NOTED UPSTREAM IN NRN ONTARIO YESTERDAY AFTN.
SHOULD BE A SIMILAR SITUATION HERE TODAY. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
THE CU RULE WHICH SUGGESTS SCT DEVELOPMENT EARLIER IN THE DAY BEFORE
MIXING OF DRIER AIR BEGINS TO EAT AWAY AT THE CU. STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF COOL FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP DAYTIME CU
INLAND...WITH CU PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER INLAND WITH TIME AS MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE EXPANDS S. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH 850MB
THERMAL TROF AROUND 0C SLOWLY SLIPPING E DURING THE AFTN. LOCATIONS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE SHOULD HOLD TO THE LOW/MID
40S...COOLEST OVER THE E. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 TOWARD THE WI BORDER...WHICH IS INLINE WITH
UPSTREAM TEMPS IN NRN ONTARIO YESTERDAY.

AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A CHILLY/FROSTY
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...
RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO CALM/NEAR CALM UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING 50-75PCT OF NORMAL...
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS IN
THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY W HALF...MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. THAT
SAID...ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE THAT MAY LIMIT COOLING IS SOME CLOUD
COVER. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER NRN MANITOBA AT
THE NOSE OF SOME WAA COULD DROP SE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SINCE THAT
WAA WEAKENS TO THE SE...EXPECT THE MID CLOUDS TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE AREA. OBVIOUSLY...CLOUD
TRENDS UPSTREAM TODAY WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE AFFECT ON MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

UNDER SUNNY SKIES...A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED THU WITH HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 6 TO 10C BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
SHOULD RULE LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN TO PROVIDE COOLING NEAR THE
LAKES. MIXING UPWARDS OF 750MB YIELDS MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F OVER THE
INTERIOR W. TEMPS LAKESIDE WILL BE IN THE 40S/50S...DEPENDING ON HOW
EARLY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS AT EACH LOCATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 00Z
FRI WITH TROUGHING AND A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN
U.S...A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH NEAR IN NE MEXICO...AND A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE 500 MB RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING IN FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE SAME THING FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. WHAT THAT WILL
MEAN IS CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS THE FRONT AND NARROW BAND
OF PCPN MOVE OUT. REMOVED POPS OVER THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT IS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN. THIS IS THE ONLY
CHANGE I MADE IN THE MID TERM. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND LEFT
THEM ALONE FOR THE MOST PART.

IN THE EXTENDED...PROLONGED DRY PERIOD CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE ON TUESDAY. ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
STAYING IN A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH...BUT ALL THE DYNAMICS STAY NORTH
OF THE AREA UNTIL A TROUGH DIGS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING AHEAD OF HIGH PRES WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

THE DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE DONE AS NO SHIP OBS OR
OBSERVATION HAVE SHOWN IT THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CARIBOU ISLAND HAS
A 6 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD. THE DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE
LAKE AND HELPED TO DISSIPATE THE FOG. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 442 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO NUNAVUT
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...A QUIET 2-3 DAYS ARE ON THE WAY AS THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS E IN RESPONSE TO TROF MOVING INLAND FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA. TROF WILL REACH THE UPPER LAKES LATE FRI...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHC OF -SHRA. AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY...A WARMING TREND WILL
GET UNDER WAY THU AND FRI AS WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROF.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

WITH TROF AXIS SHIFTING SE OF UPPER MI...BACK EDGE OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING STEADILY SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ATTM. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN AN ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE SENSE IS NOTED
UPSTREAM PER 00Z CWPL SOUNDING WHICH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
0.24 INCHES (AROUND 50PCT OF NORMAL) AND DWPT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY
IN THE 10-25C RANGE FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 500MB. WITH THE INFLUX OF
DRY AIR...THE FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES NOTED ON KMQT RADAR WILL END IN
THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE TODAY. NOT
MUCH DIURNAL CU WAS NOTED UPSTREAM IN NRN ONTARIO YESTERDAY AFTN.
SHOULD BE A SIMILAR SITUATION HERE TODAY. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
THE CU RULE WHICH SUGGESTS SCT DEVELOPMENT EARLIER IN THE DAY BEFORE
MIXING OF DRIER AIR BEGINS TO EAT AWAY AT THE CU. STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF COOL FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP DAYTIME CU
INLAND...WITH CU PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER INLAND WITH TIME AS MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE EXPANDS S. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH 850MB
THERMAL TROF AROUND 0C SLOWLY SLIPPING E DURING THE AFTN. LOCATIONS
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE SHOULD HOLD TO THE LOW/MID
40S...COOLEST OVER THE E. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 TOWARD THE WI BORDER...WHICH IS INLINE WITH
UPSTREAM TEMPS IN NRN ONTARIO YESTERDAY.

AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A CHILLY/FROSTY
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...
RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO CALM/NEAR CALM UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING 50-75PCT OF NORMAL...
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS IN
THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY W HALF...MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. THAT
SAID...ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE THAT MAY LIMIT COOLING IS SOME CLOUD
COVER. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER NRN MANITOBA AT
THE NOSE OF SOME WAA COULD DROP SE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SINCE THAT
WAA WEAKENS TO THE SE...EXPECT THE MID CLOUDS TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE AREA. OBVIOUSLY...CLOUD
TRENDS UPSTREAM TODAY WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE AFFECT ON MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

UNDER SUNNY SKIES...A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED THU WITH HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 6 TO 10C BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
SHOULD RULE LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN TO PROVIDE COOLING NEAR THE
LAKES. MIXING UPWARDS OF 750MB YIELDS MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F OVER THE
INTERIOR W. TEMPS LAKESIDE WILL BE IN THE 40S/50S...DEPENDING ON HOW
EARLY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS AT EACH LOCATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 00Z
FRI WITH TROUGHING AND A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN
U.S...A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH NEAR IN NE MEXICO...AND A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE 500 MB RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING IN FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE SAME THING FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. WHAT THAT WILL
MEAN IS CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS THE FRONT AND NARROW BAND
OF PCPN MOVE OUT. REMOVED POPS OVER THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT IS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN. THIS IS THE ONLY
CHANGE I MADE IN THE MID TERM. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND LEFT
THEM ALONE FOR THE MOST PART.

IN THE EXTENDED...PROLONGED DRY PERIOD CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE ON TUESDAY. ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
STAYING IN A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH...BUT ALL THE DYNAMICS STAY NORTH
OF THE AREA UNTIL A TROUGH DIGS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA COULD BRING SOME
-SHRA/-DZ TO KSAW OVERNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KIWD AND KSAW WHERE NORTH WINDS AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD STILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

THE DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE DONE AS NO SHIP OBS OR
OBSERVATION HAVE SHOWN IT THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CARIBOU ISLAND HAS
A 6 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD. THE DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE
LAKE AND HELPED TO DISSIPATE THE FOG. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...07





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 141 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN MN. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SE LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI INTO
WRN WI. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK TO MODERATE QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED SCT/NMRS SHRA OVER MOST OF INLAND UPPER
MI. IN ADDITION...SOME ISOLD TSRA WITH SMALL HAIL HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED. THE GREATEST SHRA COVERAGE AND HEAVIEST RAIN WAS OVER THE SE
CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WITH THE TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZE WAS MOST
PROMINENT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

AS THE MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DIURNAL
HEATING SUBSIDES...EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND SAG TO
THE SOUTH. SHOWERS MAY STILL BE NMRS/WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON
20Z-24Z BUT BY 00Z-03Z...THE REMAINING PCPN SHOULD BECOME SCT/ISOLD
AND END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING INCREASING CYCLONIC NE TO N FLOW (9505-850 MB N
WINDS OF 20-30 KT) INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI...HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST
LIGHT PCPN WILL DEVELOP IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHARP BACK EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...PER VIS IMAGERY...WILL MOVE N-S THROUGH THE AREA BTWN
09Z-15Z. SO...ANY PCPN SHOULD END BY EARLY WED WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY. SUNSHINE/MIXING SHOULD ALLOW INLAND TEMPS TO
CLIMB TO NEAR 60 BUT ONSHORE FLOW NORTH WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED FROM WY TO N MANITOBA WILL BE
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WE CONTINUE TO LOOK INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING
AS BEING THE COLDEST TIME PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY
LOW PW VALUES. INCLUDED THE MENTION OF FREEZING TEMPS FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST IN THE HWO.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST PRECIPITATION WISE WILL BE THE STACKED
LOW OVER N CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
LOW ITSELF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS HUDSON BAY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW SHOULD BRING THE INITIAL SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR AT 18Z FRIDAY...CENTRAL
UPPER MI BY 00Z SATURDAY...AND EAST OF ALL UPPER MI BY 12Z SATURDAY.
TIMING DIFFERS BY 3-5HRS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS...WITH THE
08/00Z CANADIAN ON THE SLOW END...AND THE 08/00Z ECMWF AND 08/12Z
BEING ON THE QUICKER SOLUTIONS. THE 08/06Z GFS RUNS THE MIDDLE
GROUND BETWEEN THESE VARYING SOLUTIONS. ADDED THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED TS OVER THE WITH SB/MU CAPE VALUES OF 300 TO 600J/KG.

GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING...FIRE WX CONCERNS
MAY INCREASE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE E HALF WHERE MORE LIMITED
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY EXIST. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE AREAS FOR SOME OF THE WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. SOME
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL OF 80 DEGREES OVER THE BARAGA
PLAINS FRIDAY.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER
THEN TAKING HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN W TO NW FLOW ALOFT...THERE
COULD BE A SMALLER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN FROM
THE N/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT DOING THE BEST AT COMING
TOGETHER ON A SOLUTION FOR MONDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING NW TO SE OVER THE CWA /LIKE THE 08/12Z ECMWF/.
THIS MAY BE ONE AREA OF THE FCST THAT CHANGES MORE THAN ANY OTHER
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 60S INLAND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES LOOK TO BE THE RULE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA COULD BRING SOME
-SHRA/-DZ TO KSAW OVERNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KIWD AND KSAW WHERE NORTH WINDS AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD STILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT CONVERGENT WIND FLOW HAS LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG (DENSE AT TIMES) ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS DENSE
FOG ADVY CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. FOG WILL LIFT TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE N.

LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL RESULT IN WINDS MOSTLY
UNDER 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
STRONGER WINDS THIS WEEK WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO WED OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS A LOW PRES TROF EXITS THE AREA...AND ALSO FRI
AS ANOTHER LOW PRES TROF MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ONLY LAST A
COUPLE OF HOURS AS CLEAR SKIES MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH
THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR
VISIBILITIES AT 2SM BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012/

UPDATE...
LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED CLEARING LINE ADVANCING
FROM THE NORTH. AT 11 PM...THE CLEARING WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FROM KBJI...EAST TO KHIB...AND LUTSEN IN NE MINNESOTA. UNDER THE
CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
UPDATED FCST TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT A FEW FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE IRON RANGE TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S AROUND DAY BREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012/

UPDATE...
REFRESHED EVENING FORECAST BASED ON QUICKLY DIMINISHING RADAR
TRENDS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO REFLECT ADVANCING CLEARING FROM
CANADA. INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG TO ALL ZONES IN ANTICIPATION OF
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT RESULTING RADIATIONAL
COOLING/FOG. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BEST CHC FOR FOG
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. NORTH OF THIS
LINE...MUCH DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012/

SFC/MID LVL LOW COLLAPSING SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS PROGRESSIVE
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. ELONGATED SFC TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS BEEN
A RESERVOIR OF LOW LVL INSTABILITY TODAY AS DEPICTED BY RUC13 THETAE
FIELDS IN LOWEST 3/4K FT. UPPER COLD POOL HAS PROVIDED OPPORTUNITY
FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED. MOST
PERSISTENT PRECIP HAS BEEN LOCATED ALONG/NORTH OF DEEP SHEAR AXIS
ACROSS IRON RANGE...SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
WERE RECEIVED ACROSS WISCONSIN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...OTHER THAN EARLY EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIAL...CONDITIONS
SHOULD TREND TOWARDS LESS PRECIP AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON BR/FG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE
LEFT OUT OF GRIDS/ZFP FOR NOW. LOWEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR IN
ARROWHEAD WHERE CLEARING OCCURS FIRST.

TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT...SFC/MID LVL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DECENT WARMING WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO.
EXPECT AN AREA OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH ACROSS RIDGE AXIS INTO CWA
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. TIMING IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS
MDLS DIFFER ON EXTENT/SPEED OF HIGH LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. THE FRONT WILL TAP THIS WARMTH ALONG
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
END BY SATURDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  62  42  69 /  10   0   0   0
INL  33  65  41  73 /  10   0  10   0
BRD  39  65  43  75 /  40   0  10   0
HYR  35  64  38  72 /  30   0   0   0
ASX  35  63  39  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KK






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 1116 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

.UPDATE...
LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED CLEARING LINE ADVANCING
FROM THE NORTH. AT 11 PM...THE CLEARING WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FROM KBJI...EAST TO KHIB...AND LUTSEN IN NE MINNESOTA. UNDER THE
CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
UPDATED FCST TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT A FEW FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE IRON RANGE TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012/

UPDATE...
REFRESHED EVENING FORECAST BASED ON QUICKLY DIMINISHING RADAR
TRENDS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO REFLECT ADVANCING CLEARING FROM
CANADA. INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG TO ALL ZONES IN ANTICIPATION OF
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT RESULTING RADIATIONAL
COOLING/FOG. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BEST CHC FOR FOG
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. NORTH OF THIS
LINE...MUCH DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CLOUDS SCATTER NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. SOME FOG PATCHES MAY OCCUR
AFTER 06Z AS THE SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. SKIES WILL ME MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012/

SFC/MID LVL LOW COLLAPSING SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS PROGRESSIVE
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. ELONGATED SFC TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS BEEN
A RESERVOIR OF LOW LVL INSTABILITY TODAY AS DEPICTED BY RUC13 THETAE
FIELDS IN LOWEST 3/4K FT. UPPER COLD POOL HAS PROVIDED OPPORTUNITY
FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED. MOST
PERSISTENT PRECIP HAS BEEN LOCATED ALONG/NORTH OF DEEP SHEAR AXIS
ACROSS IRON RANGE...SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
WERE RECEIVED ACROSS WISCONSIN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...OTHER THAN EARLY EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIAL...CONDITIONS
SHOULD TREND TOWARDS LESS PRECIP AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON BR/FG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE
LEFT OUT OF GRIDS/ZFP FOR NOW. LOWEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR IN
ARROWHEAD WHERE CLEARING OCCURS FIRST.

TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT...SFC/MID LVL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DECENT WARMING WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO.
EXPECT AN AREA OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH ACROSS RIDGE AXIS INTO CWA
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. TIMING IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS
MDLS DIFFER ON EXTENT/SPEED OF HIGH LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. THE FRONT WILL TAP THIS WARMTH ALONG
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
END BY SATURDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  62  42  69 /  10   0   0   0
INL  33  65  41  73 /  10   0  10   0
BRD  39  65  43  75 /  40   0  10   0
HYR  35  64  38  72 /  30   0   0   0
ASX  35  63  39  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 950 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY THEN STALL
NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM THURSDAY...UPDATED FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION NEXT 3-6 HOURS...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS TO UPR
40S FOR INTERIOR SRN COASTAL PLAINS. APPROACHING SHRT WV PRODUCING
PERSISTENT BAND OF SCT OVER NRN SECTIONS WITH LATEST STLT TRENDS AND
MESO MODELS INDICATING THSI ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SRN SECTIONS HAVE
ALLOWED NORMALLY COLDER AREAS TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH KDPL
ALREADY DOWN TO 52...THUS DROPPED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH INLAND SITES CPL
DGRS EITHER SIDE OF 75 AND BEACHES AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
PREDOMINATE DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. CONTINUED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
INLAND...AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME OF THE
TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS POSSIBLY MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S
INLAND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING AND
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE WET AT
TIMES...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE OH VALLEY MON MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH WED POSSIBLY STALLING ALONG THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM THURSDAY...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SCT SCU
MAY PERSIST INTO EVENING AHEAD OF SHRT WV MOVING IN FROM NW...THEN
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF SURGE OF NW
WINDS EXPECTED FRI MORNING BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE
WITH PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM...WEAK HIGH PRES OVER AREA RESULTING IN VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 10 KT. LATEST HRRR RUN HAS BEST
HANDLE ON THIS AND FOLLOWED IT FOR OVERNIGHT UPDATE. BASICALLY HAVE
CURRENT TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMING N 10-15 KT LATE
WITH BRIEF CAA SURGE AFTER SHRT WV PASSAGE. NO CHANGE TO
SEAS...MAINLY 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SUN. VARIABLE WINDS FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AOB 10KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON
NIGHT...EXPECT PREDOMINATE S/SE WINDS AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. EARLY TO MID WEEK STILL A LITTLE BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND WITH HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING
PREDOMINATE S/SE WINDS AND SEAS 2-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 135 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SLIP
OFF THE COAST BY LATE SUNDAY MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AS NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1125 PM TUESDAY...TRENDS FROM THE LATEST KLTX AND SURROUNDING
88-DS INDICATE THE PCPN ACTIVITY REMAINS WEST THRU NORTHWEST OF THE
ILM CWA. THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE
ILM CWA. HRRR/RUC MODELS INDICATE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY IE.
CAPE...AS THE MAJOR REASON FOR THE LACK OF PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE ILM CWA LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE TRIMMED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR INDICATES LOW CAPE VALUES TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HOURS WHICH WILL LIMIT TSRA PRODUCTION AND
COVERAGE ACROSS THE ILM CWA. AS FOR POPS...WILL BASICALLY ADVERTISE
NO CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOW CHANCE MAINLY WEST OF I-95
     TOWARD DAYBREAK WED. HAVE LEANED WITH NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS EITHER UPWARDS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OR LOWER...LOW TO MID 60S...ACROSS AREAS OBSERVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SSTS IN THE 70S COMBINED WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTY ZONES NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AMPLE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE INSTABILITY...HOWEVER RRQ OF AN H3 JET WILL ADD LIFT TO
THE REGION RESULTING IN DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IN THE END...MAY
NEED TO DEAL WITH A FEW SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NEARLY THE ENTIRE ILM
FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TAP. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.7 INCHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE WILL DROP BELOW 0.75 INCHES
THURSDAY. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A VERY DRY COLUMN
ABOVE H8 WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 80 MOST LOCATIONS AND LOWS WILL BE
A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT (LOWER 50S PEE DEE
AND LBT AREAS TO THE MID 50S INLAND COASTAL AREAS). LASTLY...UNTIL
THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WEAKENS COULD SEE 20-25 MPH GUSTS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...PERIOD STARTS OFF DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY CLIMO AS 5H TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH. COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK
5H RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. LATE SUN AFTERNOON RETURN FLOW AROUND EXITING HIGH AND
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF EXITING RIDGE ALOFT MAY
LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WILL CARRY SILENT POP
FOR SUN AFTERNOON AT THIS POINT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE
MON/TUE TIMEFRAME. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BROAD 5H TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MANY OF THE
PARTICULARS REMAIN IN QUESTION. IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA...GIVEN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. SETUP MON
LOOK FAVORABLE AS FAR AS DIURNAL CONVECTION IS CONCERNED. TUE LOOKS
A LITTLE MORE SYNOPTIC WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OR WARM FRONT IN
THE VICINITY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. AT THIS POINT
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MON/MON NIGHT INCREASING TO LOW
CHANCE FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PRECIPITATION STILL LOOMING OFF TO THE WEST OF LBT AND
FLO WITH CLOUD DECK SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE EAST. MODELS STILL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE BRINGING
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT ON SOUTH
WINDS COURTESY OF THE HIGH OFF THE COAST. WILL BE A BIT MORE
OPTIMISTIC FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND KEEP TERMINALS VFR THROUGH
08Z-09Z ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY AND JUST WENT WITH VICINITY FORECAST
THROUGH 20Z-21Z BEFORE GOING WITH TEMPO GROUP. CLIMO HAS SHOWN
THAT THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER A
PARTICULAR TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON TO BE RATHER LOW SO WILL
FORECAST VFR FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR POSSIBLE. BECOMING VFR
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 PM TUESDAY...SE-S WINDS TO START THE EVENING...AND WILL
SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE S-SSW OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT.
THE LOW SPEEDS CAN BE CONTRIBUTED TO A WEAK/RELAXED SFC PG...WHICH
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. THE MAJOR
CONTRIBUTOR FOR THE SIG. SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 WILL COME
FROM A 3 TO 5 FT NE SWELL EXHIBITING 10-11 SECOND PERIODS JUST
OFFSHORE AND BEYOND THE SHOALS. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE SWELL
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE ENE AND DROP TO 2 TO 3 FT DUE TO WAVE
REFRACTION ACROSS THE SHALLOW SHOALS OFF CAPE LOOKOUT AND OFF CAPE
FEAR. ADD THE 1 FT SHORT PERIOD LOCAL WIND WAVE...AND SIG SEAS EQUAL
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL VEER TO A WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL VEERING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
10-15 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN PEAK AROUND 15 KNOTS IN ITS WAKE.
COULD SEE A MINOR SURGE ARRIVE OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP OVER THE WATERS AWAY FROM THE COAST. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2-3 FT ACROSS LONG BAY AND 2-4 FT ACROSS ONSLOW BAY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NEARLY A SOLID 4 FT OFF CAPE FEAR AND 3 FT OVER
LONG BAY WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FT THURSDAY THEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MINOR SURGE. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE DECREASING AND VEER TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH. RELAXED GRADIENT WILL SEE SPEEDS DROP TO
10 KT OR LESS BY AFTERNOON. WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP LIMIT THE STRENGTH
OF THE NEAR SHORE CIRCULATION. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUE TO VEER
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST JUST
NORTH OF THE WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT SAT BECOMES
SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SPEEDS START TO PICK UP SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT AS GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED. WINDS UNDER 15 KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1125 PM TUESDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE ATLANTIC WATERFRONT MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT TO 1 AM WED. THIS A RESULT OF THE LATEST
OBSERVED TIDE READINGS CONTINUING WITHIN THRESHOLDS...EVEN THOUGH
THE OCCURRENCE OF HIGH TIDE HAS OCCURRED. THE ET SURGE MODEL
APPEARED TO DO QUITE WELL WITH TODAYS MIDDAY HIGH TIDE...THE LOWER
OF THE 2 PER DAY. WITH THAT SAID...THE ET MODEL STILL BRINGS EAST
FACING BEACHES AND CAPE FEAR RIVER TO THE VERY CUSP OF MINOR
FLOOD...WHICH IS TYPICALLY QUITE COMMON. SOME FLOODING THRESHOLDS
UNCERTAINTY FOR BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES WITH THE TIDE GAGE NOT
WORKING...BUT THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS TODAY OF FLOODING AT OCEAN
ISLE BEACH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MAC





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 829 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY AND PROGRESS
EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PIEDMONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND
A COOL AND GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z RUC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES CENTERED OVER SRN ONT CANADA
WITH COLD FRONT/SFC TROF EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN PA...E OF THE SUSQ
RVR. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN THRU MID MORNING...WITH PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY 14Z. COSPA/HRRR DATA SHOWS
SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER OH VLY AND WRN
PA AFT 16Z.

THE UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVE. CURRENT RADAR RETURNS OVER
WRN PA ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND. COMBO OF LG SCALE LIFT AND
COOLING ALOFT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROF WILL TRIGGER ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OVR THE WRN ALLEGHENIES
DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH SIMILAR CVRG SPREADING EWD
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED...CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF TS IN OVR THE NW MTNS
WHERE 850-500MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT FALLS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPLCHNS WILL INDUCE A SECONDARY
WAVE OF LOW PRES WHICH WILL LIFT NWD ALONG THE SLOW-MOVG BNDRY OVER
THE MID-ATLC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. MDLS AGREE THAT THE FAR ERN
ZONES WILL BE ON THE WRN EDGE OF MOD-LCLY HVY PCPN AXIS EXPECTED
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST AS THE SFC WAVE INTERACTS WITH RICH PLUME
OF DEEP MSTR/HI PWATS.

THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY EVOLVES TWD A TYPICAL COLD SEASON CYC/NWLY
FLOW REGIME...WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTING NWD ALONG THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE EC TAKES A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL EAST...AND THE GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM NORTH...WITH A
SLIGHT RETROGRADE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
1026-1029 MB SC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER AS IT SHOULD BE
FLATTENING OUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKS SE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...THE OPERATIONAL EC BRINGING IT THROUGH FASTER
THAN THE GFS.

DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TOWARD NORMAL
WITH BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PCPN OCCURRING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHC FOR ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT HEADED ESE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CIGS/FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 14Z. SCT -SHRA
AND ISOLD -TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVR THE ERN 1/2 OF ZOB
SECTOR AIRSPACE AFT 16Z...WITH CVRG LKLY EXPANDING EWD INTO
CENTRAL PA AND WRN PTNS OF ZNY SECTOR BY MID-LATE AFTN. GIVEN LIMITED
CVRG AND LOW POINT PROBS...ONLY OPTED TO INCLUDE VCSH AT JST/BFD. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A COOL NWLY POST-
FRONTAL REGIME AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NE STATES AND LOW
PRES DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE SRN NEW ENG COAST. IN THIS
PATTERN LOW CIGS ARE LKLY AT BFD/JST WITH MAINLY VFR E OF THE MTNS.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR NORTH/WEST. VFR SOUTH/EAST. GUSTY NW WINDS.
FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 753 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY AND PROGRESS
EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PIEDMONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND
A COOL AND GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z RUC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES CENTERED OVER SRN ONT CANADA
WITH COLD FRONT/SFC TROF EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN PA...E OF THE SUSQ
RVR. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN THRU MID MORNING...WITH PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY 14Z. COSPA/HRRR DATA SHOWS
SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER OH VLY AND WRN
PA AFT 16Z.

THE UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVE. COMBO OF LG SCALE LIFT AND
COOLING ALOFT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROF WILL TRIGGER ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OVR THE WRN ALLEGHENIES
DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH SIMILAR CVRG SPREADING EWD
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS MID BY PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED...CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF TS IN OVR THE NW MTNS
WHERE 850-500MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT FALLS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPLCHNS WILL INDUCE A SECONDARY
WAVE OF LOW PRES WHICH WILL LIFT NWD ALONG THE SLOW-MOVG BNDRY OVER
THE MID-ATLC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. MDLS AGREE THAT THE FAR ERN
ZONES WILL BE ON THE WRN EDGE OF MOD-LCLY HVY PCPN AXIS EXPECTED
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST AS THE SFC WAVE INTERACTS WITH RICH PLUME
OF DEEP MSTR/HI PWATS.

THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY EVOLVES TWD A TYPICAL COLD SEASON CYC/NWLY
FLOW REGIME...WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTING NWD ALONG THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE EC TAKES A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL EAST...AND THE GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM NORTH...WITH A
SLIGHT RETROGRADE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
1026-1029 MB SC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER AS IT SHOULD BE
FLATTENING OUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKS SE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...THE OPERATIONAL EC BRINGING IT THROUGH FASTER
THAN THE GFS.

DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TOWARD NORMAL
WITH BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PCPN OCCURRING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHC FOR ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT HEADED ESE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CIGS/FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 14Z. SCT -SHRA
AND ISOLD -TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVR THE ERN 1/2 OF ZOB
SECTOR AIRSPACE AFT 16Z...WITH CVRG LKLY EXPANDING EWD INTO
CENTRAL PA AND WRN PTNS OF ZNY SECTOR BY MID-LATE AFTN. GIVEN LIMITED
CVRG AND LOW POINT PROBS...ONLY OPTED TO INCLUDE VCSH AT JST/BFD. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A COOL NWLY POST-
FRONTAL REGIME AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NE STATES AND LOW
PRES DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE SRN NEW ENG COAST. IN THIS
PATTERN LOW CIGS ARE LKLY AT BFD/JST WITH MAINLY VFR E OF THE MTNS.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR NORTH/WEST. VFR SOUTH/EAST. GUSTY NW WINDS.
FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 601 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY AND PROGRESS
EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PIEDMONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND
A COOL AND GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08Z RUC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES CENTERED JUST NORTH OF OTTAWA
CANADA WITH COLD FRONT/SFC TROF EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN PA. RADAR
SHOWS LGT RAINS LIFTING NEWD ACRS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CLIPPING
FAR SE PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCD WITH A WEAK MID LVL S/W
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF MAIN UPPER TROF MOVG EWD ACRS
THE MIDWEST/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN THRU MID
MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

THE UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVE. COMBO OF LG SCALE LIFT AND
COOLING ALOFT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROF WILL TRIGGER ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OVR THE WRN ALLEGHENIES
DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH SIMILAR CVRG SPREADING EWD
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS MID BY PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED...CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF TS IN OVR THE NW MTNS
WHERE 850-500MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT FALLS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPLCHNS WILL INDUCE A SECONDARY
WAVE OF LOW PRES WHICH WILL LIFT NWD ALONG THE SLOW-MOVG BNDRY OVER
THE MID-ATLC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. MDLS AGREE THAT THE FAR ERN
ZONES WILL BE ON THE WRN EDGE OF MOD-LCLY HVY PCPN AXIS EXPECTED
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST AS THE SFC WAVE INTERACTS WITH RICH PLUME
OF DEEP MSTR/HI PWATS.

THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY EVOLVES TWD A TYPICAL COLD SEASON CYC/NWLY
FLOW REGIME...WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTING NWD ALONG THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE EC TAKES A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL EAST...AND THE GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM NORTH...WITH A
SLIGHT RETROGRADE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
1026-1029 MB SC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER AS IT SHOULD BE
FLATTENING OUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKS SE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...THE OPERATIONAL EC BRINGING IT THROUGH FASTER
THAN THE GFS.

DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TOWARD NORMAL
WITH BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PCPN OCCURRING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHC FOR ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT HEADED ESE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE IMPROVING AS OF 10Z ACRS THE WESTERN TAF
SITES AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
ARE STILL IMPACTING THE ERN TAFS BUT ALSO ANTICIPATING IMPROVING
CONDS HERE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SCT -SHRA WILL BE PSBL FM LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN OVR WRN AND
CENTRAL TERMINALS...AS THE AIR COOLS ALOFT AND FORCING INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CVRG IS XPTD
TO BE SCT AT BEST AND MAY REMOVE VCSH WITH THE 12Z TAF SET. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A COOL NWLY POST-
FRONTAL REGIME AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NE STATES AND LOW
PRES DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE SRN NEW ENG COAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR NORTH/WEST. VFR SOUTH/EAST. GUSTY NW WINDS.
FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 538 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY AND PROGRESS
EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PIEDMONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND
A COOL AND GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08Z RUC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES CENTERED JUST NORTH OF OTTAWA
CANADA WITH COLD FRONT/SFC TROF EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN PA. RADAR
SHOWS LGT RAINS LIFTING NEWD ACRS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CLIPPING
FAR SE PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCD WITH A WEAK MID LVL S/W
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF MAIN UPPER TROF MOVG EWD ACRS
THE MIDWEST/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN THRU MID
MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

THE UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVE. COMBO OF LG SCALE LIFT AND
COOLING ALOFT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROF WILL TRIGGER ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OVR THE WRN ALLEGHENIES
DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH SIMILAR CVRG SPREADING EWD
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS MID BY PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED...CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF TS IN OVR THE NW MTNS
WHERE 850-500MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT FALLS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPLCHNS WILL INDUCE A SECONDARY
WAVE OF LOW PRES WHICH WILL LIFT NWD ALONG THE SLOW-MOVG BNDRY OVER
THE MID-ATLC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. MDLS AGREE THAT THE FAR ERN
ZONES WILL BE ON THE WRN EDGE OF MOD-LCLY HVY PCPN AXIS EXPECTED
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST AS THE SFC WAVE INTERACTS WITH RICH PLUME
OF DEEP MSTR/HI PWATS.

THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY EVOLVES TWD A TYPICAL COLD SEASON CYC/NWLY
FLOW REGIME...WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTING NWD ALONG THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE EC TAKES A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL EAST...AND THE GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM NORTH...WITH A
SLIGHT RETROGRADE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
1026-1029 MB SC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER AS IT SHOULD BE
FLATTENING OUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKS SE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...THE OPERATIONAL EC BRINGING IT THROUGH FASTER
THAN THE GFS.

DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TOWARD NORMAL
WITH BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PCPN OCCURRING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHC FOR ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT HEADED ESE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LGT W/SW WNDS COMBINED WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND HIGH LLVL/BLYR MSTR
IS RESULTING IN POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING IN WAKE OF COLD FNT SHIFTING EWD INTO ERN PA. XPT CONDS
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR BY MID MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVR ERN PA/NJ AND DELMARVA AS A WELL-
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SEWD FM THE GRT LKS. SCT -SHRA
WILL BE PSBL FM LATE MORNING THRU THE AFT AS THE AIR COOLS ALOFT
AND FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE OF A COLD SEASON NWLY
POST-FRONTAL REGIME AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NE STATES AND
LOW PRES DEEPENS NWD ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR NORTH/WEST. VFR SOUTH/EAST.
FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1236 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
343 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

AT 3 AM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS STILL BEING
DETECTED BY RADAR JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. NOT OVERLY
SURPRISED BY THIS...BECAUSE THE SAME THING WAS HAPPENING ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY 09.12Z...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE 09.00Z MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
/CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MONTANA/ WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOVE ABOVE 600 MB...ONLY EXPECTING A BROKEN DECK OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SOME OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING...SO RAISED THE TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE 09.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA...WESTERN IOWA...AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS
PREVENTING THIS SYSTEM FROM TAPPING INTO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
WHILE THIS WILL BE CASE...MEAN LAYER CAPES STILL CLIMB INTO THE
500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP LOCATED BETWEEN 750 AND 650 MB. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE
THE GFS AND NAM/WRF HAVE COME AROUND TO GEM SOLUTION OF GENERATING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS HOW FAST THE CAP ERODES. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...JUST KEPT THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BETWEEN
25 AND 34 PERCENT. WITH WEAK 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR...IT STILL
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THAT ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BECOME
SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
343 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ALL OF THE 09.00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE INSTABILITY
GRADUALLY WANES DURING THE EVENING...THEREFORE...CONFINED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MAINLY THE EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND 09.00Z GFS
INDICATE THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
OVERALL THE BEST FORCING WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE MEAN LAYER CAPES WILL RANGE FROM
500 TO 1000 J/JG...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE 09.00Z GFS AND 08.12Z
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THESE SHOWERS WOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF
WISCONSIN 29. MEANWHILE THE 09.00Z ECMWF HAS THESE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE BEST CONSISTENCY ACROSS TAYLOR AND
NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WENT WITH A
15 TO 24 PERCENT PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY AND LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A SCT-BKN DECK BETWEEN 3K-4K FEET. THESE WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING ENOUGH DRYING TO PRECLUDE MENTION OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT. AS HIGH PUSHES EAST THURSDAY...GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND MAY BE CLOSE TO 12
KNOTS AT KRST BETWEEN 15Z-18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
241 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RABERDING







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 600 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
343 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

AT 3 AM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS STILL BEING
DETECTED BY RADAR JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. NOT OVERLY
SURPRISED BY THIS...BECAUSE THE SAME THING WAS HAPPENING ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY 09.12Z...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE 09.00Z MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
/CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MONTANA/ WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOVE ABOVE 600 MB...ONLY EXPECTING A BROKEN DECK OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SOME OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING...SO RAISED THE TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE 09.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA...WESTERN IOWA...AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS
PREVENTING THIS SYSTEM FROM TAPPING INTO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
WHILE THIS WILL BE CASE...MEAN LAYER CAPES STILL CLIMB INTO THE
500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP LOCATED BETWEEN 750 AND 650 MB. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE
THE GFS AND NAM/WRF HAVE COME AROUND TO GEM SOLUTION OF GENERATING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS HOW FAST THE CAP ERODES. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...JUST KEPT THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BETWEEN
25 AND 34 PERCENT. WITH WEAK 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR...IT STILL
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THAT ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BECOME
SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
343 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ALL OF THE 09.00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE INSTABILITY
GRADUALLY WANES DURING THE EVENING...THEREFORE...CONFINED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MAINLY THE EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND 09.00Z GFS
INDICATE THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
OVERALL THE BEST FORCING WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE MEAN LAYER CAPES WILL RANGE FROM
500 TO 1000 J/JG...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE 09.00Z GFS AND 08.12Z
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THESE SHOWERS WOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF
WISCONSIN 29. MEANWHILE THE 09.00Z ECMWF HAS THESE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE BEST CONSISTENCY ACROSS TAYLOR AND
NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WENT WITH A
15 TO 24 PERCENT PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY AND LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
600 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

A BANK OF 6 KFT BKN CLOUDS WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING IT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
KRST/KLSE BETWEEN 15-18Z. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT POST THESE
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD STAY VFR.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH WORKS OVERHEAD. COULD BE SOME FOG
CONCERNS WITH RECENT RAINS SATURATING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...CIRRUS
WILL SPILL ACROSS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. ALSO...EXPECT SOME DRYING THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST OBS ACROSS
NORTHERN MN HAVE AREAS OF FOG...BUT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WILL LEAVE
FOG OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. IF IT WOULD DEVELOP...KLSE IN THE RIVER
VALLEY WOULD HAVE THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
241 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 344 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
343 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

AT 3 AM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS STILL BEING
DETECTED BY RADAR JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. NOT OVERLY
SURPRISED BY THIS...BECAUSE THE SAME THING WAS HAPPENING ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY 09.12Z...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE 09.00Z MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
/CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MONTANA/ WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOVE ABOVE 600 MB...ONLY EXPECTING A BROKEN DECK OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SOME OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING...SO RAISED THE TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE 09.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA...WESTERN IOWA...AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS
PREVENTING THIS SYSTEM FROM TAPPING INTO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
WHILE THIS WILL BE CASE...MEAN LAYER CAPES STILL CLIMB INTO THE
500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP LOCATED BETWEEN 750 AND 650 MB. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE
THE GFS AND NAM/WRF HAVE COME AROUND TO GEM SOLUTION OF GENERATING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS HOW FAST THE CAP ERODES. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...JUST KEPT THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BETWEEN
25 AND 34 PERCENT. WITH WEAK 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR...IT STILL
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THAT ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BECOME
SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
343 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ALL OF THE 09.00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE INSTABILITY
GRADUALLY WANES DURING THE EVENING...THEREFORE...CONFINED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MAINLY THE EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND 09.00Z GFS
INDICATE THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
OVERALL THE BEST FORCING WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE MEAN LAYER CAPES WILL RANGE FROM
500 TO 1000 J/JG...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE 09.00Z GFS AND 08.12Z
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THESE SHOWERS WOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF
WISCONSIN 29. MEANWHILE THE 09.00Z ECMWF HAS THESE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE BEST CONSISTENCY ACROSS TAYLOR AND
NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WENT WITH A
15 TO 24 PERCENT PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY AND LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
INTO THE TAF SITES BY THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF BROKEN VFR
CUMULUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH A GENERAL 5 TO 10
KT BREEZE WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
241 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 505 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM N
CNTRL CANADA THROUGH SASK INTO ERN MONTANA AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
STRETCHED FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH NW MN INTO SE SD. INCREASING SRLY
WINDS OVER MN/IA HAD BROUGH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER SRN MN. A BAND OF
SHRA AND SOME ISOLD TSRA CONTINUED BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY
800-600 MB FGEN OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS OVER
WRN MN WERE DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVED INTO DRIER AIR TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
WITH THE NAM AND REGIONAL GEM BRINGING INTO THE WEST BTWN 18Z-21Z
AND THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI BTWN 00Z-03Z. THE STRONGEST 800-600 MB
FGEN AND FORCING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250 MB JET IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE FROM MN NE INTO NW ONTARIO...REMAINING TO THE NW
OF THE CWA. INITIAL PCPN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL CONV
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NW WI INTO SW UPPER
MI...ONLY MODEST MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 400 J/KG WILL BE AVBL INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK
OF STRONGER DYNAMICS...KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE/SCT RANGE. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL FGEN SUPPORTED PCPN
LATER IN THE EVENING...PER REGIONAL GEM AND LCL HIGH RES WRF/ARW...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF...EXPECT RAIN TO END BY AROUND 06Z.

SUNSHINE/MIXING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNON SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH COOLER READINGS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH MOISTURE ARRIVING...MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY...RH VALUES COULD DROP AOB 30 PCT OVER THE INLAND
EAST HALF.

A PLEASANT DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUN WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 3C-5C RANGE WILL STILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

SHRA WILL END W TO E FRI NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT MAKE STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS AND RDG BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SAT SO HAVE REMOVED POPS
AND PCPN FROM SAT FCST. VERY DRY AIRMASS ASSOC WITH SFC RDG WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SAT AND CONTINUE INTO SUN LEADING TO LOW
MIN RH/S AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND DEEP
DAYTIME MIXING TO H775 AND POSSIBLY H750. EXPECT DEWPOINT VALUES TO
FALL THROUGH THE AFTN ON SAT AND SUN AS DRIER AIR MIXES TO THE
SFC...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA. MODEL ML DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE WEST ON SAT AND IN THE
MID 20S ON SUNDAY WHILE DEWPOINTS DROP INTO LOWER 30S BOTH DAYS
EAST...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN DEW POINTS FOR GRIDS
OVER BOTH DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF LOWERING DEW POINTS AND HIGH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE
RH VALUES ON SAT BTWN 20-25 PERCENT AND PERHAPS EVEN THE UPPER TEENS
WEST. WITH NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WX
CONCERNS...BUT HOPEFULLY THE 0.1 INCH OF RAIN ON FRI NIGHT WILL HELP
LIMIT THEM. FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND DEW
POINTS LOWERING TO MID 20S COULD DRIVE RH/S AGAIN INTO THE 20-25 PCT
RANGE AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER TEENS AT SOME WRN LOCATIONS.

SHORTWAVE ASSOC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY LOOKS TO STAY
GENERALLY WELL NORTH OF THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
MODEL CONSENSUS SO WILL GO WITH DRY FCST FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/S MOVING THROUGH UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN NW FLOW FOR TUE THROUGH THU TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE
FOR MEASURABLE PCPN IS LOW AT THIS POINT SO HAVE NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN FCST FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THU.

TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN BY TUE/WED AND THEN WARMING UP ABV
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

EXPECT DRY HI PRES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LKS TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL 3 SITES THRU THIS MRNG. A GUSTY S WIND BTWN THIS DEPARTING HI
AND AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL DVLP AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD/SAW LOCATIONS.
BUT LINGERING DRYNESS WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT A SHARP
WSHFT FOLLOWING THE AFTN FROPA AT CMX/IWD...AND SOME -SHRA/A PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT THESE 2 SITES AFTER THE FROPA WITH
UPSLOPE WNW FLOW. THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION WL SEE GUSTY WNW
WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS WELL. AT SAW...THE FROPA/-SHRA WL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 12/00Z...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THERE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVR MOST OF LK SUPERIOR TONIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT WINDS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 15KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE WINDS STAY BELOW
20KTS DURING THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE LK SUPERIOR
REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 400 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR AN INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO SIOUX
FALLS LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING EAST NEAR 20
KNOTS AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z
AND REACH A LADYSMITH TO EAU CLAIRE LINE AROUND 19Z. LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR...CONTRARY TO SOME OF THE WRF
FORECASTS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LAG THE FRONT BY
A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND A STRENGTHENING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING...THIS WOULD FAVOR AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY.
IN ADDITION...NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BEST PRESSURE
RISES ARE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS KFSD WITH THE ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT WEAKENING TO OUR WEST. HAVE INDICATED 25-28 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS THROUGH 15Z FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THEN DIMINISHING
SOME THEREAFTER. A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY.

THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
OF THE FA EARLY TONIGHT. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS
THAT A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW
HOURS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE AREAS MIGHT END UP WITH MORE RAIN THIS
EVENING THAN WHAT OCCURS TODAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE FINE WEATHER DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED EAST-WEST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. USED MIX
DOWN FOR PART OF THE DEW POINT FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS RESULTED IN DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 20S WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES REACHING NEARLY 20 PERCENT. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER NOW
WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
SUNDAY.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS DRY ALONG WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL.
FORECAST HIGHS RIGHT NOW FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE MAINLY IN
THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. A WEAK WAVE REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME...SO THE IDEA WAS TO DROP THE 15-20 POPS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 5Z...STRETCHED FROM NEAR ROSEAU SW TO NEAR
YANKTON. AWIPS TIMING TOOL BRINGS IT TO AXN AROUND 7Z AND STC/RWF
9Z...THIS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN LAMP GUIDANCE...SO HAVE WIND
SHIFTS AT AIRPORTS ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN THE LAMP.
VERY DRY AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT MOST PRECIP BACK
ON THE COLD ADVECTION SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT EVEN THAT IS PRETTY
SPARSE ONCE YOU GO SOUTH OF NODAK. IS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS NEAR
ABR THAT THE RUC TAKES TOWARD AXN/STC...BUT AFTER THAT...SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LOOKING PRETTY SPARSE BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND NAM
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SO HAVE NO MORE THAN VCSH AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS. AT 18Z...INSTABILITY SPIKES OVER TOWARD EAU...SO THERE
IS A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA THERE BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. HOWEVER...DRY
AND CAPPED ATMO AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT TSRA
COVERAGE...SO REMOVED ITS MENTION. AFTER THAT...NAM IN PARTICULAR
IS SHOWING SHRA CHANCES INCREASING TOWARD 00Z ACROSS MN AS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF EXITING JET AND BAND OF 700-600 MB FGEN MOVE
ACROSS...THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RWF/MSP TO SEE -SHRA. FOR
CIGS...WILL BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH THE HRRR IS SHOWING A NARROW
BAND OF MVFR CIGS WORKING THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HAVE TEMPO
GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE PICKING UP OUT OF
THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL SEE 30/40 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...AND MAY SEE SIMILAR SPEEDS OVER WRN MN IN THE
MORNING...SO BUMPED UP SPEEDS FOR AXN/RWF. THESE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIE DOWN TOWARD SUNSET AS THE CLOUDS THIN OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST.

KMSP...CONTINUED TREND OF 9Z TAF AMD OF ONLY MENTIONING VCSH AS HI
RES MODELS DO NOT PAINT MUCH PRECIP FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING. FRONT CURRENTLY OUT RUNNING THE GFSLAMP BY A LITTLE
BIT...AND DO FEEL WE WILL BE SEEING NW WINDS SOONER THAN GUIDANCE
INDICATES. EXTRAPOLATING OFF THE END OF THE HRRR WOULD BRING NW
INTO THE FIELD AT 15Z...SO FAVORED TIMING OF WIND DIRECTION THAT
DIRECTION. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF ONLY HAVING TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SHOWERS AROUND 00Z AS JET
FORCING MOVES THROUGH...BUT THIS MAY BE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA.

/OUTLOOK/
.SAT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10KT.
.SUN...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15KT.
.MON...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15KT.
.TUE...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

RAH/MPG









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 1216 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE NEXT SIX DAYS IS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE LATEST SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONTAL POSITIONS AND
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE IR LOOP DEPICTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WELL DEFINED DRYING BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MOST OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WAS POST FRONTAL. ON
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...ATTEMPTED TO RE-DEFINED POPS/WEATHER
GRIDS TO ADJUST MORE TO THE BEGINNING/ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST QPF EXPECTED TO GENERALLY LESS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

AFTERWARDS...DRY NORTHWEST AIRFLOW WILL ENSUE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES BY SUNDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MIDWEST
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 5Z...STRETCHED FROM NEAR ROSEAU SW TO NEAR
YANKTON. AWIPS TIMING TOOL BRINGS IT TO AXN AROUND 7Z AND STC/RWF
9Z...THIS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN LAMP GUIDANCE...SO HAVE WIND
SHIFTS AT AIRPORTS ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN THE LAMP.
VERY DRY AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT MOST PRECIP BACK
ON THE COLD ADVECTION SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT EVEN THAT IS PRETTY
SPARSE ONCE YOU GO SOUTH OF NODAK. IS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS NEAR
ABR THAT THE RUC TAKES TOWARD AXN/STC...BUT AFTER THAT...SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LOOKING PRETTY SPARSE BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND NAM
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...SO HAVE NO MORE THAN VCSH AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS. AT 18Z...INSTABILITY SPIKES OVER TOWARD EAU...SO THERE
IS A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA THERE BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. HOWEVER...DRY
AND CAPPED ATMO AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT TSRA
COVERAGE...SO REMOVED ITS MENTION. AFTER THAT...NAM IN PARTICULAR
IS SHOWING SHRA CHANCES INCREASING TOWARD 00Z ACROSS MN AS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF EXITING JET AND BAND OF 700-600 MB FGEN MOVE
ACROSS...THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RWF/MSP TO SEE -SHRA. FOR
CIGS...WILL BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH THE HRRR IS SHOWING A NARROW
BAND OF MVFR CIGS WORKING THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HAVE TEMPO
GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE PICKING UP OUT OF
THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL SEE 30/40 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...AND MAY SEE SIMILAR SPEEDS OVER WRN MN IN THE
MORNING...SO BUMPED UP SPEEDS FOR AXN/RWF. THESE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIE DOWN TOWARD SUNSET AS THE CLOUDS THIN OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST.

KMSP...CONTINUED TREND OF 9Z TAF AMD OF ONLY MENTIONING VCSH AS HI
RES MODELS DO NOT PAINT MUCH PRECIP FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING. FRONT CURRENTLY OUT RUNNING THE GFSLAMP BY A LITTLE
BIT...AND DO FEEL WE WILL BE SEEING NW WINDS SOONER THAN GUIDANCE
INDICATES. EXTRAPOLATING OFF THE END OF THE HRRR WOULD BRING NW
INTO THE FIELD AT 15Z...SO FAVORED TIMING OF WIND DIRECTION THAT
DIRECTION. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF ONLY HAVING TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SHOWERS AROUND 00Z AS JET
FORCING MOVES THROUGH...BUT THIS MAY BE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA.

/OUTLOOK/
.SAT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10KT.
.SUN...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15KT.
.MON...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15KT.
.TUE...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JVM/MPG






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 145 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY THEN STALL
NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH MOCLR
SKIES AND CALM/ LIGHT WINDS. HAVE DROPPED LOWS A FEW DEGS TOTHE
UPPER 40S INLAND WITH 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH INLAND SITES CPL
DGRS EITHER SIDE OF 75 AND BEACHES AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
PREDOMINATE DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. CONTINUED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
INLAND...AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME OF THE
TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS POSSIBLY MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S
INLAND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING AND
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE WET AT
TIMES...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE OH VALLEY MON MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH WED POSSIBLY STALLING ALONG THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/..
VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TAF PERIOD BUT WUDNT BE SUPRISED IF SOME
SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPS BEFORE SUNRISE. EVEN IF IT DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL HAVE LITTLE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRIEF SURGE OF NW
WINDS EXPECTED FRI MORNING BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE
WITH PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES OVER AREA RESULTING IN VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS
WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 10 KT. LATEST HRRR RUN HAS BEST HANDLE ON
THIS AND FOLLOWED IT FOR OVERNIGHT UPDATE. BASICALLY HAVE CURRENT
TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMING N 10-15 KT LATE WITH
BRIEF CAA SURGE AFTER SHRT WV PASSAGE. NO CHANGE TO SEAS...MAINLY
2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SUN. VARIABLE WINDS FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AOB 10KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON
NIGHT...EXPECT PREDOMINATE S/SE WINDS AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. EARLY TO MID WEEK STILL A LITTLE BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND WITH HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING
PREDOMINATE S/SE WINDS AND SEAS 2-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 1101 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERN-MOST LOBE OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW ROTATES NORTHWARD.
THINKING COVERAGE WILL BE DECENT AFTER 4 PM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAYS 54/400. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 4-5 PM
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. IN ALL INSTANCES...NOT
ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY AND FORCING.

ADK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON SE PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT THAT HAS
ENTERED NW KS ~09Z. FRONT APPEARS TO BE DECELERATING & AS SUCH WOULD
EXPECT ONLY KRSL TO EXPERIENCE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS BECOMING NE 13-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE OVER
CNTRL KS ALONG THE FRONT BUT LIMITED COVERAGE DICTATES LEAVING OUT OF
TAF UNTIL TRENDS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. FOR REMAINING TERMINALS FOCUS
IS ON NWD ADVANCING SHRA THAT ARE SPREADING SLOWLY OVER SRN OK AS MID
LVL CYCLONE MOVES SLOWLY E OVER SRN PLAINS. WOULD NOT EXPECT SHRA TO
REACH SC & SE KS TIL ~12/00Z & AS SUCH HAVE LEFT OUT OF KICT & KCNU
TAFS FOR NOW..BUT WILL CERTAINLY MONITOR DOPPLER TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON
& UPDATE AS NEEDED. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR STATUS FOR MOST
OF 12Z TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE...PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

TODAY-SATURDAY
A RATHER STRONG LATE SPRING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO KANSAS
TODAY...THOUGH DIURNALLY SLOWING A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. MEANWHILE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MODEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT ON THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF
THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME
CONVECTION SPREADING NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IN THIS REGARD ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE
GOING FORECAST WERE MADE TO POPS AND MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST CHANCE POPS INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT/COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO OOZE SOUTH ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA AND THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO
THE OZARKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND FORECAST CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A BIT
MORE DRYING AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES IN DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE HAVE REDUCED
OR REMOVED POPS IN SOME AREAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE WILL KEEP MAXS A BIT BELOW MID-MAY CLIMO.

MONDAY-THURSDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
STORM TRACK/STRONGER WESTERLIES STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

DARMOFAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  55  69  54 /  20  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      78  53  68  51 /  10  20  30  20
NEWTON          78  54  68  51 /  10  20  30  20
ELDORADO        76  55  69  52 /  20  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  56  70  54 /  50  30  40  20
RUSSELL         78  50  65  49 /  20  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      79  51  67  50 /  20  30  30  20
SALINA          79  52  69  50 /  20  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       78  53  68  51 /  10  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     76  58  71  56 /  50  40  50  30
CHANUTE         77  57  70  54 /  30  30  40  20
IOLA            77  57  70  54 /  20  30  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    76  58  71  54 /  40  30  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1105 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

COLD FRONT LURKING UPSTREAM NEAR DULUTH...BUT FRONT IS PUSHING INTO
UPPER RIDGE SO IT WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE THIS AFTN. AVAILABLE RADARS
UPSTREAM /DLH RADAR STILL DOWN TO DUAL POL INSTALLATION/ AND SFC OBS
INDICATE SHOWERS ARE MAINLY WEST OF DLH STILL. SHOWERS ARE LINING UP
WELL WITH H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND HIGHER H7 DWPNTS. THESE MECHANISMS
FCST TO SLIDE INTO FAR WEST CWA AFT 18Z AND MORE INTO CNTRL CWA
TOWARD 00Z. NO REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WRT POPS/WX...JUST
DELAYED ONSET OF CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN IN THE WEST BY A COUPLE
HOURS. NUDGED HIGHS UP INTO UPR 70S AND EVEN PUT SOME 80 DEGREE
READINGS IN OVR PORTIONS OF CNTRL CWA. THIS RAISES A CONCERN WITH
FIRE WX AS FCST TEMPS/DWPNTS/RH AND WINDS ARE NOW NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. NOT QUITE THERE THOUGH. COORDINATED WITH MIDNR AND
ISSUED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL CWA
/DICKINSON AND MENOMINEE COUNTIES THROUGH MARQUETTE COUNTY/.
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL SHOULD FADE BY LATE THIS AFTN WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM N
CNTRL CANADA THROUGH SASK INTO ERN MONTANA AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
STRETCHED FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH NW MN INTO SE SD. INCREASING SRLY
WINDS OVER MN/IA HAD BROUGH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER SRN MN. A BAND OF
SHRA AND SOME ISOLD TSRA CONTINUED BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY
800-600 MB FGEN OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS OVER
WRN MN WERE DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVED INTO DRIER AIR TO THE EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
WITH THE NAM AND REGIONAL GEM BRINGING INTO THE WEST BTWN 18Z-21Z
AND THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI BTWN 00Z-03Z. THE STRONGEST 800-600 MB
FGEN AND FORCING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250 MB JET IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE FROM MN NE INTO NW ONTARIO...REMAINING TO THE NW
OF THE CWA. INITIAL PCPN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL CONV
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NW WI INTO SW UPPER
MI...ONLY MODEST MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 400 J/KG WILL BE AVBL INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK
OF STRONGER DYNAMICS...KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE/SCT RANGE. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL FGEN SUPPORTED PCPN
LATER IN THE EVENING...PER REGIONAL GEM AND LCL HIGH RES WRF/ARW...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF...EXPECT RAIN TO END BY AROUND 06Z.

SUNSHINE/MIXING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNON SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH COOLER READINGS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH MOISTURE ARRIVING...MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY...RH VALUES COULD DROP AOB 30 PCT OVER THE INLAND
EAST HALF.

A PLEASANT DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUN WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 3C-5C RANGE WILL STILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
USHER THE REGION INTO A FAIRLY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN FOR THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

SAT NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING MORE OVER THE
CNTRL/LOWER GREAT LKS. LINGERING LIGHT WINDS COULD END UP PRODUCING
SOME COOL LOWS...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND NEAR THE
KEWEENAW...WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH PWATS AROUND 55 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...COULD SEE SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPS OVER/AROUND IRON
COUNTY.

SUN...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SW ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHIFT WINDS A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE SW. THE
DEEP MIXING TO H750 WILL LEAD TO GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE COOLING DOWNSTREAM OF LK
MI. DRY AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE...BUT THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS
THAT THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH BASED DIURNAL CU /NAM/ AND THEN MID
CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE DRIER AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND STAYED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF LOW DEWPOINTS/RH. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS DOWN TO
GOING DEWPOINT FORECAST AND STILL HAVE MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WRN CWA WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS AND LOWEST RH VALUES.

WITH THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY...MOISTURE...AND LLVL CAA STAYING TO
THE NE OF THE CWA...ONLY EXPECT SOME MID CLOUDS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CWA ON SUN NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE FRONT WILL WILL KEEP WINDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIMIT TEMP FALL. THUS...WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S.

MON THROUGH THURS...NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT HIGH OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS WILL SFC RIDGE TO THE S OF THE CWA ON MON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRY TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUES.
MODELS VARY ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT MOVING MOVING THROUGH ON TUES NIGHT AND WED MORNING. 12Z ECMWF
SHOWING MORE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE BEST FEATURES LOOK TO BE OVER LK
SUPERIOR OR SRN ONTARIO. 00Z GFS IS ON THE WEAK SIDE...WHILE
THE 00Z GEM IS BETWEEN THE TWO AND SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE. EVEN IN THIS CASE...CAN/T JUSTIFY MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AND WILL KEEP THE GOING FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NRN PLAINS
WED NIGHT INTO THURS. 00Z GFS IS THE FASTEST SOLN...BUT 00Z GEM
ENS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF HOLD THE LOW BACK IN THE NRN PLAINS AT 12Z
THURS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SOLN. THIS COULD PUSH SOME WAA PCPN INTO
THE AREA ON THURS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT IN MN/WI AND WILL MAINLY
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES.

OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

EXPECT DRY HI PRES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. A GUSTY S WIND BTWN
THIS DEPARTING HI AND AN APRCHG COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE WITH
SOME DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD/SAW
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LINGERING DRYNESS WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A SHARP WIND SHIFT FOLLOWING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROPA
AT CMX/IWD...AND SOME -SHRA FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AT THESE 2 SITES AFTER THE FROPA WITH UPSLOPE WNW FLOW. THE
MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION SHOULD ALSO SEE GUSTY WNW WINDS FOLLOWING
THE FROPA. AT SAW...THE FROPA/-SHRA WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER 12/00Z...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. DRIER AIR MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL BRING CLEARING
AND VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SRLY WINDS THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW WINDS TO
20 AND POSSIBLY 25KTS LATE TONIGHT. AS LAKE SUPERIOR BECOMES
STATIONED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PERSISTENT WRLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
MON AND WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 732 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM N
CNTRL CANADA THROUGH SASK INTO ERN MONTANA AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
STRETCHED FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH NW MN INTO SE SD. INCREASING SRLY
WINDS OVER MN/IA HAD BROUGH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER SRN MN. A BAND OF
SHRA AND SOME ISOLD TSRA CONTINUED BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY
800-600 MB FGEN OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS OVER
WRN MN WERE DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVED INTO DRIER AIR TO THE EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
WITH THE NAM AND REGIONAL GEM BRINGING INTO THE WEST BTWN 18Z-21Z
AND THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI BTWN 00Z-03Z. THE STRONGEST 800-600 MB
FGEN AND FORCING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250 MB JET IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE FROM MN NE INTO NW ONTARIO...REMAINING TO THE NW
OF THE CWA. INITIAL PCPN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL CONV
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NW WI INTO SW UPPER
MI...ONLY MODEST MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 400 J/KG WILL BE AVBL INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK
OF STRONGER DYNAMICS...KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE/SCT RANGE. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL FGEN SUPPORTED PCPN
LATER IN THE EVENING...PER REGIONAL GEM AND LCL HIGH RES WRF/ARW...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF...EXPECT RAIN TO END BY AROUND 06Z.

SUNSHINE/MIXING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNON SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH COOLER READINGS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH MOISTURE ARRIVING...MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY...RH VALUES COULD DROP AOB 30 PCT OVER THE INLAND
EAST HALF.

A PLEASANT DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUN WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 3C-5C RANGE WILL STILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
USHER THE REGION INTO A FAIRLY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN FOR THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

SAT NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING MORE OVER THE
CNTRL/LOWER GREAT LKS. LINGERING LIGHT WINDS COULD END UP PRODUCING
SOME COOL LOWS...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND NEAR THE
KEWEENAW...WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH PWATS AROUND 55 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...COULD SEE SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPS OVER/AROUND IRON
COUNTY.

SUN...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SW ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHIFT WINDS A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE SW. THE
DEEP MIXING TO H750 WILL LEAD TO GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE COOLING DOWNSTREAM OF LK
MI. DRY AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE...BUT THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS
THAT THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH BASED DIURNAL CU /NAM/ AND THEN MID
CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE DRIER AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND STAYED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF LOW DEWPOINTS/RH. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS DOWN TO
GOING DEWPOINT FORECAST AND STILL HAVE MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WRN CWA WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS AND LOWEST RH VALUES.

WITH THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY...MOISTURE...AND LLVL CAA STAYING TO
THE NE OF THE CWA...ONLY EXPECT SOME MID CLOUDS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CWA ON SUN NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE FRONT WILL WILL KEEP WINDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIMIT TEMP FALL. THUS...WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S.

MON THROUGH THURS...NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT HIGH OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS WILL SFC RIDGE TO THE S OF THE CWA ON MON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRY TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUES.
MODELS VARY ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT MOVING MOVING THROUGH ON TUES NIGHT AND WED MORNING. 12Z ECMWF
SHOWING MORE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE BEST FEATURES LOOK TO BE OVER LK
SUPERIOR OR SRN ONTARIO. 00Z GFS IS ON THE WEAK SIDE...WHILE
THE 00Z GEM IS BETWEEN THE TWO AND SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE. EVEN IN THIS CASE...CAN/T JUSTIFY MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AND WILL KEEP THE GOING FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NRN PLAINS
WED NIGHT INTO THURS. 00Z GFS IS THE FASTEST SOLN...BUT 00Z GEM
ENS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF HOLD THE LOW BACK IN THE NRN PLAINS AT 12Z
THURS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SOLN. THIS COULD PUSH SOME WAA PCPN INTO
THE AREA ON THURS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT IN MN/WI AND WILL MAINLY
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES.

OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

EXPECT DRY HI PRES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. A GUSTY S WIND BTWN
THIS DEPARTING HI AND AN APRCHG COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE WITH
SOME DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD/SAW
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LINGERING DRYNESS WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A SHARP WIND SHIFT FOLLOWING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROPA
AT CMX/IWD...AND SOME -SHRA FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AT THESE 2 SITES AFTER THE FROPA WITH UPSLOPE WNW FLOW. THE
MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION SHOULD ALSO SEE GUSTY WNW WINDS FOLLOWING
THE FROPA. AT SAW...THE FROPA/-SHRA WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER 12/00Z...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. DRIER AIR MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL BRING CLEARING
AND VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SRLY WINDS THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW WINDS TO
20 AND POSSIBLY 25KTS LATE TONIGHT. AS LAKE SUPERIOR BECOMES
STATIONED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PERSISTENT WRLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
MON AND WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

 959 AM PDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS BUILDING IN TODAY BRINGING WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. FORECAST ON TRACK TODAY FOR HIGHS TO BE
AROUND 4 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY. THIS MEANS LOW
90S FOR THE VALLEY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY LOCALLY REACHING UP TO 27 MPH IN STRONGER GUSTS.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO INCREASE WINDS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THESE
WINDS PEAKING LATER IN THE MORNING THEN DIMINISHING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA. A FURTHER
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN MODELS SUGGESTS THE MAIN THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE SHASTA
COUNTY AREA...SO MAY NEED TO DECREASE POPS OVER THE SIERRA. EK


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BROADENS OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK
LEADING TO AN EXTENSION OF THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER VERSUS YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE...
LEADING TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AT THE SURFACE. VALLEY
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FOR NEAR NINETY DEGREES FOR NEXT WEEK.

THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A 570DM
TIGHTLY PACKED CUTOFF LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO PIN DOWN TRAJECTORY AND PACING OF
THIS SYSTEM THE LAST FEW DAYS. 12Z RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF DEPICT THIS
LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA MID TO LATE MONDAY. THE EURO/GEM TRACK
THE LOW OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... AND THE GFS SLANTS THE
PATH FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. THE
GFS/EURO SHOW THIS LOW SPREADS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND THE
SOUTHERN CASCADES AND LASSEN PARK REGION WITH 350 J/KG OF MUCAPE
MONDAY. THE EURO BRINGS THE SAME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DONT EXPECT TO SEE ANYTHING IN THE
VALLEY WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT WE MAY SEE A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS OVER INTERIOR NORCAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE SIERRA WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
THROUGH 16Z. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 316 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS ALONG A NEWTON TO LAMONI LINE AT 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A FEW CU DEVELOPING
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  THE 19Z SPC THERMODYNAMICS FIELDS
SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY WITH VERY WEEK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT. THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST REACHING DAVIS COUNTY BY 7 PM.  12Z GFS/NAM AND THE
LATEST HRRR DEVELOP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT THIS
EVENING.  THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO KEEP A SMALL
CONDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED 700 MB TROUGH AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT ALONG WITH CLOUDINESS.  PREVIOUS
TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD REQUIRING ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER QUIET PERIOD TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ITEMS TO MENTION INCLUDING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING UP OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MO ON SATURDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO LINGER OVER THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY BUT
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING SUNDAY MAINLY
SUNNY AND QUIET. MODEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
WITH A FEW WAVES TRAVELING ALONG THE US CAN BORDER. A WEAK COOL
FRONT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO CROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO DROP
INTO THE REGION FOR A DAY PRIOR TO THE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS SOME THUNDER
ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...BUT MODELS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS
FLOW OVER THE SOUTH HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW HUGGING THE GULF COAST.  THUS...AM RELUCTANT TO GET
TOO EXCITED ABOUT POP IN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL
A STRONGER WAVE DROPS INTO THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT WILL COME 24 TO 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE CURRENT
EXTENDED FORECAST. FORECAST HIGHS WILL WARM NICELY BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH SW FLOW IN PLACE AND GOOD MIXING COMBINED WITH
H850 TEMPS OF 17-19C...WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
IF THE TREND HOLDS. COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WITH LOWER 80S IN
MIND AND WILL WAIT FOR A FEW MORE CONFIRMATION RUNS PRIOR TO RAISING
TEMPS HIGHER...BUT BOTH H500 PATTERN WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND INCREASING H850 TEMPS SUPPORT VERY WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS NORTH INTO THE REGION. EURO THICKNESS
BY 00Z SAT 5/19 BACK TO 570-573DM WHICH IS RATHER SUMMER LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION...11/18Z
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MASON CITY TO AUDUBON AT 17Z.  EXPECT THE
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IA THIS AFTERNOON REACHING OTTUMWA
AROUND 22Z.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A SCATTERED CU FIELD
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE COLD FRONT.  MODEST
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT TO PRODUCE A
VFR COULD DECK AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN IOWA.
SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...REV



















AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 312 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES CRAWL SLOWLY ACROSS IA
THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING FROM WEST CENTRAL WI...TROUGH MASON CITY
TO WEST OF DES MOINES...INTO FAR NW MO AT 19Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER NEAR THE BOUNDARY LIMITED TO MN AND WI...WHILE POST
FRONTAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WERE WELL TO THE NW FROM NW NEB THROUGH SE SD INTO MN.
AREA RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED A BAND OF SHOWERS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM W CENTRAL MN INTO N CENTRAL NEB. ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS
WERE BEGINNING TO POP UP IN W CENTRAL AND NW IA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
TEMPERATURES WERE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WERE FOUND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS WESTERN IA AND SW MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS RAIN CHANCES AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH GULF MOISTURE RATHER MEAGER AND
LIMITED BY A LOW MOVING ACROSS TX TODAY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
ONLY REACHED A NARROW AXIS OF MID 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND 850
MB ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING WOULD SUGGEST BULK OF GULF MOISTURE TO
REMAIN CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOSE INSPECTION OF THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE FIRST CU OF THE DAY STARTING TO POP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR DSM...AND WILL WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MUCAPES RISE TO VALUES WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER FORCING FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WEAK FORCING AND MOISTURE AROUND 700
MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT AXIS OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. THIS
FEATURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. WILL KEEP AN
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EVENING FOR THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY...WHICH IS
STILL SUGGESTED AS POSSIBILITY BY THE HRRR MODEL. OTHERWISE...
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND LIMIT LOWS TO AROUND 50 NORTH TO
THE MID 50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLOW AS IT DROPS TOWARD
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. WEAK MID
LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IS SHOWN POOLING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TO JUSTIFY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS THEN SHIFTS TO THE FAR SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF DRY AIR INTO THE AREA.
LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING EMBEDDED IN
THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.    SHEETS

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST TIME RANGE IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH. THE
850MB BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND A WEAK VORT
MAX WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.  MOISTURE IS A
LIMITING FACTOR SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY.  TEMPERATURES TO BE MILD BOTH PERIODS WITH CLOUDS
TEMPERING THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH.  MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S.  HIGHS SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
LOW 70S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA WITH WEAK WESTERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY.  THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE SO THAT ON TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AGAIN...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MORE LOW 80S.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF IT STILL APPEARS WE WILL BE
WORKING WITH VERY DRY AIR AND DEEP MIXING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SETS IN IN EARNEST WITH A LONG
FETCH FROM TEXAS...AND BY FRIDAY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE HEADING OUR DIRECTION.  A FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...
THOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH SOME KEEPING IT
NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THERE IS
LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH.  A SURFACE
LOW IS GENERATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS...AND BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THE FRONT BECOMES A WARM FRONT AND PUSHES BACK NORTH...AND WILL BE
GENERALLY DRAPED FROM SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
INTO WISCONSIN.  UNLESS THIS CHANGES THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE STORM
TRACK NEXT WEEK...AND WE WILL BE SITTING IN A VERY WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S.
HAVE SOME VERY LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNLESS THE
FRONT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE AREA AM ANTICIPATING WE WILL BE DRY.

LE

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM WESTERN WI THROUGH CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN IA AND NW IL
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AND ISOLATED EVENING
THUNDERSTORM FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE
EXPECTED...WILL HAVE ONLY PROB30 GROUPS AND VC WORDING FOR SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

SHEETS

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

UPPER LOW MEANDERING NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
ROTATE AREAS OF RAIN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TERMINALS AFFECTED WILL BE KCNU AND POSSIBLY KICT.
ADDITIONALLY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR KRSL-KSLN-KHUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTED WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BY ANY MEANS DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THINKING CIGS AS LOW AS 3000-4000 FT
AGL COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EARLIEST FOR KSLN-
KRSL...AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH. STOUT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ADK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERN-MOST LOBE OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW ROTATES NORTHWARD.
THINKING COVERAGE WILL BE DECENT AFTER 4 PM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAYS 54/400. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 4-5 PM
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. IN ALL INSTANCES...NOT
ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY AND FORCING.

ADK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON SE PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT THAT HAS
ENTERED NW KS ~09Z. FRONT APPEARS TO BE DECELERATING & AS SUCH WOULD
EXPECT ONLY KRSL TO EXPERIENCE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS BECOMING NE 13-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE OVER
CNTRL KS ALONG THE FRONT BUT LIMITED COVERAGE DICTATES LEAVING OUT OF
TAF UNTIL TRENDS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. FOR REMAINING TERMINALS FOCUS
IS ON NWD ADVANCING SHRA THAT ARE SPREADING SLOWLY OVER SRN OK AS MID
LVL CYCLONE MOVES SLOWLY E OVER SRN PLAINS. WOULD NOT EXPECT SHRA TO
REACH SC & SE KS TIL ~12/00Z & AS SUCH HAVE LEFT OUT OF KICT & KCNU
TAFS FOR NOW..BUT WILL CERTAINLY MONITOR DOPPLER TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON
& UPDATE AS NEEDED. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR STATUS FOR MOST
OF 12Z TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE...PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

TODAY-SATURDAY
A RATHER STRONG LATE SPRING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO KANSAS
TODAY...THOUGH DIURNALLY SLOWING A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. MEANWHILE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MODEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOWARD PEAK
HEATING...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT ON THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF
THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME
CONVECTION SPREADING NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IN THIS REGARD ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE
GOING FORECAST WERE MADE TO POPS AND MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST CHANCE POPS INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT/COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO OOZE SOUTH ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA AND THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO
THE OZARKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND FORECAST CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A BIT
MORE DRYING AS THE COOLER AIR SETTLES IN DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE HAVE REDUCED
OR REMOVED POPS IN SOME AREAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE WILL KEEP MAXS A BIT BELOW MID-MAY CLIMO.

MONDAY-THURSDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
STORM TRACK/STRONGER WESTERLIES STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

DARMOFAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  55  68  54 /  20  30  30  20
HUTCHINSON      78  52  67  51 /  10  20  30  10
NEWTON          78  54  66  51 /  10  20  30  10
ELDORADO        76  55  68  52 /  20  40  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  56  69  54 /  50  50  50  20
RUSSELL         78  48  67  49 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      79  48  66  50 /  20  30  20  10
SALINA          79  51  69  50 /  20  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       78  52  67  51 /  10  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  58  68  56 /  50  60  60  30
CHANUTE         77  57  69  54 /  30  60  60  20
IOLA            77  57  69  54 /  20  60  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    76  58  70  54 /  40  60  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 201 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

COLD FRONT LURKING UPSTREAM NEAR DULUTH...BUT FRONT IS PUSHING INTO
UPPER RIDGE SO IT WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE THIS AFTN. AVAILABLE RADARS
UPSTREAM /DLH RADAR STILL DOWN TO DUAL POL INSTALLATION/ AND SFC OBS
INDICATE SHOWERS ARE MAINLY WEST OF DLH STILL. SHOWERS ARE LINING UP
WELL WITH H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND HIGHER H7 DWPNTS. THESE MECHANISMS
FCST TO SLIDE INTO FAR WEST CWA AFT 18Z AND MORE INTO CNTRL CWA
TOWARD 00Z. NO REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WRT POPS/WX...JUST
DELAYED ONSET OF CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN IN THE WEST BY A COUPLE
HOURS. NUDGED HIGHS UP INTO UPR 70S AND EVEN PUT SOME 80 DEGREE
READINGS IN OVR PORTIONS OF CNTRL CWA. THIS RAISES A CONCERN WITH
FIRE WX AS FCST TEMPS/DWPNTS/RH AND WINDS ARE NOW NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. NOT QUITE THERE THOUGH. COORDINATED WITH MIDNR AND
ISSUED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL CWA
/DICKINSON AND MENOMINEE COUNTIES THROUGH MARQUETTE COUNTY/.
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL SHOULD FADE BY LATE THIS AFTN WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM N
CNTRL CANADA THROUGH SASK INTO ERN MONTANA AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
STRETCHED FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH NW MN INTO SE SD. INCREASING SRLY
WINDS OVER MN/IA HAD BROUGH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER SRN MN. A BAND OF
SHRA AND SOME ISOLD TSRA CONTINUED BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY
800-600 MB FGEN OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS OVER
WRN MN WERE DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVED INTO DRIER AIR TO THE EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
WITH THE NAM AND REGIONAL GEM BRINGING INTO THE WEST BTWN 18Z-21Z
AND THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI BTWN 00Z-03Z. THE STRONGEST 800-600 MB
FGEN AND FORCING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250 MB JET IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE FROM MN NE INTO NW ONTARIO...REMAINING TO THE NW
OF THE CWA. INITIAL PCPN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL CONV
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NW WI INTO SW UPPER
MI...ONLY MODEST MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 400 J/KG WILL BE AVBL INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK
OF STRONGER DYNAMICS...KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE/SCT RANGE. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL FGEN SUPPORTED PCPN
LATER IN THE EVENING...PER REGIONAL GEM AND LCL HIGH RES WRF/ARW...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF...EXPECT RAIN TO END BY AROUND 06Z.

SUNSHINE/MIXING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNON SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH COOLER READINGS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH MOISTURE ARRIVING...MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY...RH VALUES COULD DROP AOB 30 PCT OVER THE INLAND
EAST HALF.

A PLEASANT DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUN WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 3C-5C RANGE WILL STILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
USHER THE REGION INTO A FAIRLY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN FOR THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

SAT NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING MORE OVER THE
CNTRL/LOWER GREAT LKS. LINGERING LIGHT WINDS COULD END UP PRODUCING
SOME COOL LOWS...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND NEAR THE
KEWEENAW...WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH PWATS AROUND 55 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...COULD SEE SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPS OVER/AROUND IRON
COUNTY.

SUN...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SW ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHIFT WINDS A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE SW. THE
DEEP MIXING TO H750 WILL LEAD TO GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE COOLING DOWNSTREAM OF LK
MI. DRY AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE...BUT THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS
THAT THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH BASED DIURNAL CU /NAM/ AND THEN MID
CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE DRIER AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND STAYED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF LOW DEWPOINTS/RH. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS DOWN TO
GOING DEWPOINT FORECAST AND STILL HAVE MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WRN CWA WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS AND LOWEST RH VALUES.

WITH THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY...MOISTURE...AND LLVL CAA STAYING TO
THE NE OF THE CWA...ONLY EXPECT SOME MID CLOUDS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CWA ON SUN NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE FRONT WILL WILL KEEP WINDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIMIT TEMP FALL. THUS...WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S.

MON THROUGH THURS...NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT HIGH OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS WILL SFC RIDGE TO THE S OF THE CWA ON MON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRY TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUES.
MODELS VARY ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT MOVING MOVING THROUGH ON TUES NIGHT AND WED MORNING. 12Z ECMWF
SHOWING MORE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE BEST FEATURES LOOK TO BE OVER LK
SUPERIOR OR SRN ONTARIO. 00Z GFS IS ON THE WEAK SIDE...WHILE
THE 00Z GEM IS BETWEEN THE TWO AND SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE. EVEN IN THIS CASE...CAN/T JUSTIFY MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AND WILL KEEP THE GOING FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NRN PLAINS
WED NIGHT INTO THURS. 00Z GFS IS THE FASTEST SOLN...BUT 00Z GEM
ENS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF HOLD THE LOW BACK IN THE NRN PLAINS AT 12Z
THURS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SOLN. THIS COULD PUSH SOME WAA PCPN INTO
THE AREA ON THURS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT IN MN/WI AND WILL MAINLY
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES.

OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

DECENT HEATING TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT MIXING TO BRING DOWN
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC...ESPECIALLY AT SAW. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
NEAR IWD WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING CMX BY
20Z AND SAW BY 00Z. EXPECT A QUICK WIND SHIFT FROM S/SW TO NW WITH
THIS FRONT...WITH SPEEDS HOVERING AROUND 12KTS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND MODEL TRENDS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE
SCARCE WITH THIS FRONT THAN THOUGHT AS IT TRIES TO MOVE UNDER A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD COME DOWN AT ALL SITES AND -SHRA SHOULD
MOVE IN FOR ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT
MOISTURE DEFICIENCY MAY END UP KEEPING ALL SITES IN VFR RANGE. FOR
THE TIME BEING...KEPT MVFR CIGS AT IWD AND CMX IN THE FORECAST DUE
TO POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
LATE TONIGHT WILL ERODE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND RESULT IN A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SRLY WINDS THIS
MORNING...BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW WINDS TO
20 AND POSSIBLY 25KTS LATE TONIGHT. AS LAKE SUPERIOR BECOMES
STATIONED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PERSISTENT WRLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
MON AND WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...SRF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.UPDATE...

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUC DATA...I ADJUSTED POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER ELEMENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST ZONE PRODUCT
REFLECTS THESE CHANGES.

HUBER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOK FOR STRATUS TO RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. SEE
AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOOK FOR CONTINUED CHANGES TO FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST WSR-88D AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR OUR WESTERN BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES. SOUTH OF THIS
CENTER...SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...I BELIEVE THEY WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED. AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. THUS...I DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY THUNDER ELEMENTS IN ANY OF THE TERMINALS FOR 00Z AND BEYOND.
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...MODELS INDICATE STRATUS
WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTH...BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW. THE NAM...AS USUAL...IS MORE PESSIMISTIC AND PRESENTS
LOWER CEILING HEIGHTS THAN THE GFS. I DECIDED TO GO WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING FOR ALL FIVE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...I DO NOT EXPECT THESE
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SO...MY 1500 FEET REPRESENTS A LIKELY AVERAGE CEILING HEIGHT
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BY 15Z...PLAN FOR VFR CEILINGS TO AGAIN
DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

HUBER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AVIATION...
FOG HAS RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AT KABI...KBBD...AND KJCT THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 15Z TO MVFR. THE REMAINING TAF
SITES ARE VFR. EXPECT TSTORMS TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WITH
DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
REGION TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORM MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LIGHTNING. TSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012/

SHORT TERM...
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMED AT JUNCTION EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THIS FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. PLAN TO COVER WITH NOWCASTS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS WC TX.

THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF WINK ALONG THE TX/NM
BORDER.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SHOULD HELP TO SWEEP THE UPPER LOW EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS WC TX TODAY.  THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD
COLDER AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES.  THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING WILL AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.  LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES BELOW 1000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...IN AREAS OF GOOD
SURFACE HEATING...THE STRONGEST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT.  WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  LOWERED POPS FOR THIS EVENING
AND ENDED POPS AFTER 06Z

LONG TERM...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA IT WILL WEAKEN WITH THE RESULTANT
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
LATE SUNDAY WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A
FEW STRONG STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS
THE AREA...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE 80S THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH ENSUING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  56  75  57  78  58 /  40  20  10  10  20
SAN ANGELO  57  78  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  20
JUNCTION  55  80  56  81  59 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HUBER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 255 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE COLDER VALLEY
TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.

MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH POOLING OF MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW...ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...AS ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS
TEXAS TODAY MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES.

THE FIRST FORECAST CONCERN IS WHEN PRECIP DEVELOPS. THE GFS MOISTENS
THE AIRMASS QUICKLY...INCREASING PWATS TO OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER...BUT
WAS DISREGARDED. WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE SNEAKING UP THE
FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT...KEPT SMALL POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVES BEGIN TO INVADE THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
THETA-E RIDGE.

PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PLUS A BROAD AREA OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE FORMS AS OUR FORECAST AREA FALLS UNDER THE RR QUAD
OF NORTHERN STREAM JET.

THIS SPELLS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON MONDAY..AS
PWATS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ON
MONDAY...AND WITH GEFS...AND TO LESSER EXTENT...NAEFS HYDROLOGIC
ENSEMBLES SHOWING A SMALL CHANCE SOME RIVER GAUGE LOCATIONS
EXCEEDING ACTION STAGE. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE A MENTION OF THE
THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THE HWO.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE...NARROWED THE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS...INCREASING LOWS AND
REDUCING HIGHS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PHASE THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
CURRENTLY IN TEXAS...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROF ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE AXIS OF THIS UPPER
TROF TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 06Z GFS IS MUCH
SLOWER AND DEEPER...WHICH APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO
ITS ENSEMBLES. A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN IS PROBABLY THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO...AS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS. AS A
RESULT...KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

LATER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGENCE
CONSIDERABLY ON THE WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE. THE 12Z GFS DEVELOPS A CUT
OFF LOW IN EASTERN NC...WHILE 0Z ECMWF LIFTS THE EASTERN U.S. TROF
WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA.  THE MAJORITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL GFS
ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN OF KEEPING AN OPEN
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE RNK FORECAST AREA
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...

GREAT FLYING WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS .BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP TO MVFR VALUES AT BLF AND LWB ON SUNDAY THEN ALSO AT
ROA/BCB/DAN AND LYH ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVE EAST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...AMS/KK