Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/14/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 332 PM MDT THU APR 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS LOGAN...NORTHERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STABLE AIR WHERE LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG. FURTHER NORTHEAST...CAPES MINIMAL BUT ARE
INCREASING. STORMS ARE NOW FIRING ACROSS PHILLIPS COUNTY. STILL
DECENT SHEAR IN THIS REGION WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES AND
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TORNADO WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THAT
REGION THROUGH 02Z. POTENTIAL FOR THOSE STORMS TO PRODUCE
HAIL...WIND ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. FURTHER WEST...WEAK
NORTHERLY SURGE HELPED TO AID IN QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA TYPE SHOWERS
ALONG FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A FEW REPORTS OF RAIN
HITTING THE GROUND. SHOWERS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN WELD COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS
MOUNTAINS...WITH LATEST WEB CAMS INDICATION SOME SNOW AND RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES. FOR
TONIGHT...CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST CORNER TO SLIDE INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE EVENING AS BACK EDGE OF SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND DRIER
AIR FROM SOUTH MOVES ACROSS AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
PLAINS...STILL SOME QUESTION IF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE...AS
LATEST NAM AND GFS STILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT LATEST RUC AND HRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS
CONFINED TO WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
THE EARLY EVENING GRIDS FOR EASTERN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES.
ACROSS MOUNTAINS... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE...STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SNOW GOING. ON FRIDAY...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WITH MODELS SHOWING A JET
MAX MOVING ACROSS WESTER COLORADO. CROSS SECTIONS GRADUALLY
INCREASE THE MOUNTAIN MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM
SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL QG ASCENT. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
STILL APPEARS WEST OF THE CFWA. THE GFS STILL IS DRIER. SO...WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NORTH AND MIDDLE PARKS. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS
PROGS SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE RIDGES. AS FOR PLAINS...MODELS SHOW
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HINTS AT A
SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING NORTH OF DENVER. AIRMASS WILL BE
DRY...NO POPS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS ACROSS PLAINS
IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON
THICKNESS PROGS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE...SEEMS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE UPON ONE SOLUTION FOR
THIS WEEKEND...ONE THAT CONTAINS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.
NAM...GFS...EUROPEAN...CANADIAN GEM AND SREF HAVE ALL LATCHED ON
THE DEEPENING TROUGH PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND THE
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEARING THE 4-CORNERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...LOW...MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE SEASONABLY MILD SIDE. MODELS HINT AT A SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH AND OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A ROUND
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THIS WEAK
PERTABATION IN THE FLOW...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MEASURABLE PCPN YET. THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE DRYING EFFECTS OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

ON SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN SHOWS THE 500MB LOW PASSING
OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA DURING THE DAY...A TAD SLOWER THAN WAS
PROGGED BY THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. AS IT DOES Q-G OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE A STEADY INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER
NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A SFC COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASING
MOIST SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ON THE PLAINS. NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE LIGHT QPF BREAKING OUT ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER
AROUND MIDDAY WITH BANDED LIFT ALOFT...AND OVER REMAINING PORTIONS
OF THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHEAST PLAINS BY 00Z/SUNDAY...IF NOT
SOONER. TEMPERATURES...IE. WETBULB TEMPS...STILL LOOK TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER IT/S LIKELY WE/LL SEE
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS STEADILY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND CONFINED TO HIGHER RIDGES FROM SUMMIT COUNTY NORTHWARD.

IT/S SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN MODELS PAINT A VERY WET AND
EVEN SNOWY PICTURE FOR OUR PART OF THE STATE. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS BEGIN TO APPEAR AT THIS POINT WHICH ONLY ADDS
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST ALONG
THE COLORADO-NEW MEXICO BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY. GREATEST
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT GENERATED IN THE NORTHWEST QUAD OF THIS
CYCLONE...WHICH MODELS SHOW PASSING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS
AND NORTHERN FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO GO HIGH WITH QPF
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS
NOT AS AMBITIOUS AS BEFORE. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SHOW
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BANDS OF 1 TO 2 INCH QPF ACROSS
THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND 1 TO 2 AND A HALF FOOT
SNOW ACCUMS BY 00Z/MONDAY IN THE FRONT RANGE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
MODELS EVEN SHOW PRETTY RESPECTABLE SNOW TOTALS ON THE PLAINS...
WITH MOIST FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS PASSING
TROUGH/UPPER LOW. HOWEVER ALL DEPENDS ON TEMPERATURES AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM SHOW
WETBULB TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW ON THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BUT THE NAM KEEPS TEMPS A BIT TOO WARM
EXCEPT MAYBE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS IN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS BEGINNING SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AT THIS TIME...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW
THE UPPER LOW AND ITS PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT ON MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLOW TO MOVE PRECIP OUT AS IT SHOWS A
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. FOR NOW...WILL HANG ONTO TO LOW POPS ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHT
WARMING.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...GFS AND GEM INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER
WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY.
WHEREAS THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
STATE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE FCST FOR TUESDAY. BEYOND THAT...WILL GO WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION... STILL SOME SHOWERS HOLDING ON NORTH AND EAST OF THE
DENVER AREA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS FINALLY HOLDING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT DIA. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. CEILINGS HAVE STAYED
ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL AND NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ILS CONCERNS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOULD INCREASE BY
19Z WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. VFR TO PREVAIL.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...D-L




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 322 PM MDT THU APR 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...

DRYLINE AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE CENTERED PARALLEL AND NEAR
HIGHWAY 287/385 THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF BACA...PROWERS...AND KIOWA
COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR HAVE MIXED OUT TO THE
LOWER TEENS. HRRR STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD STORM OR
TWO DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO KS. ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE E OF
THE DRYLINE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...THUS THE
CURRENT TOR WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. 4KM WRF DOES NOT DEVELOP
ANY STRONG CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY SHORTLY WHETHER
THE CU FIELD OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE ANY PERSISTENT
CONVECTION.

FARTHER W...LOW RH AND STRENGTHENING SW WINDS HAVE LED TO MARGINAL
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GUST
THROUGH EARLY EVE...AND MORE DRY AIR ON THE WAY...WILL LEAVE RED
FLAG INTACT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WARNING. HAVE ALSO CONVERTED THE
FIRE WX WATCH TO A WARNING FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SW WINDS. RH SHOULD
BE ABOVE CRITICAL CRITERIA TOMORROW OVR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISTRICT...WITH TEMPS ALOFT FALLING OFF A BIT MORE AND RESULTANT
HIGHER HUMIDITY. EXPECT TEMPS TO VARY FROM THE 50S OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...UPR ARKANSAS...AND EL PASO-TELLER...TO THE LOWER 70S OVR
THE SERN PLAINS. SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY DAY E OF THE DVD. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE BIG PACIFIC TROUGH FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL
KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SHSN OVR THE DVD DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OVR THE DVD BY FRI EVE. MAIN SHOW WILL COME
THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER. ROSE

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)

OVERALL...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY BACK TO
THE SOUTH REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
STATE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. FOR THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW TRACK WON`T HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...AS ALMOST ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW FROM SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE DIVIDE...WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 2 FEET OR
MORE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FARTHER EAST...NO HIGHLIGHTS YET AS
HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND SMALL CHANGES TO THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP AMOUNTS.
TAKEN AT FACE VALUE...GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE OVER PIKES PEAK AND THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE
SANGRES...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY...WET...WIND DRIVEN SNOW OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE SUNDAY MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY...THOUGH ALL MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME -SHRA/-SHSN
A GOOD BET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS COLD FRONT RACES
SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL THUS INCREASE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...EMPHASIZING A LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN WINDOW. MODELS APPEAR TO HANG ON TO LIGHT PRECIP TOO
LONG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
MAINLY DOWNSLOPE...SO WILL ONLY RUN WITH LOW POPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MON INTO MON EVENING. RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
BEGINS TUE AS FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 H FOR THE TAF
SITES. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI...REACHING PEAK
SPEEDS IN MID-LATE AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT SHSN WILL INCREASE OVR
THE CONTDVD ESPECIALLY BY LATE FRI...IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS IN ERN CO THIS WEEKEND.
ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220-222-224-
225.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058-060-066-068.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ224.

&&

$$

44/10






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 1021 AM MDT THU APR 12 2012

.UPDATE...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH WEAK
OROGRAPHICS TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WEB CAMS ALONG I-70 NEAR THE
TUNNEL SHOWING SOME PRECIP. MAIN CONCERN THOUGH WILL BE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CORNER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUC SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHEAR INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AT ALL LEVELS. THE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO POINTING TO CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ROUGHLY IN THE 21Z-02Z
TIME FRAME. MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A JET MAX SLIDING ACROSS
AREA...WITH THE NORTHEAST CORNER IN FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIFT.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS PINPOINTED THIS AREA NICELY...AND STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS A
BIT FURTHER WEST INTO MORGAN AND NORTHEAST WELD COUNTIES...IN CASE
THE DRY LINE DEVELOPS FURTHER WEST AS SHOWN BY NAM AND GFS. WILL
KEEP URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS DRY AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION. OVERALL CURRENT FORECASTS LOOKING
GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS STILL ON TRACK. WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND EXITING TROUGH. BOTH NAM AND GFS GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE DENVER. STILL BELIEVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE AIRPORTS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS AROUND 7000 FEET AGL...WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS AT THIS
POINT. DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO FOG OR LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM MDT WED APR 12 2012/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA WILL BE LEFT IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS
TODAY AS LAST NIGHT/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THIS WEEKEND/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER
CALIFORNIA.  THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THE WEST SHOULD BE SOME CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF MID LAYER CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
STRATUS THIS MORNING...LEFT OVER FROM THE ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS THAT MOVED OVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  DAYTIME
INSOLATION SHOULD CLEAR OUT MOST CLOUDINESS BY MIDDAY.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY BECAUSE OF THE MOISTURE EVAPORATING
OUT OF THE GROUND FROM LAST NIGHT/S RAINS.  ZONES ON THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF  THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST
TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S WHILE A FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILE DEVELOPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 1000 G/KG OF ENERGY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THE ARRIVAL OF THE
JET ALOFT MAY BE THE FINAL PIECE OF THE PUZZLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.  A THIN SLICE OF THE STATE IS UNDER SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF THIS.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP
SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EVENING.

LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.  BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A JET MAXIMUM IS
STRETCHED ACROSS COLORADO...SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST.  THIS JET MAX
CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT DUE SOUTHWESTERLY.
ON SATURDAY...THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ON THE DECREASE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA.  BY 00Z LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION JUST
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS.  THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A BIT SLOWER AND
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH THESE FEATURE SATURDAY OVERNIGHT.  BY
12Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS JUST GETTING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA...WITH THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND ECMWF.  THE
NAM IS A BIT NORTHEAST OF THERE WITH ITS CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS BRING IN UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY BY
FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE STRONGEST
MOTION IS PROGGED SATURDAY NIGHT AND IS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.  THE
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS POINT TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND THE
GFS HAS IT OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A BIT EAST OF THERE.  THE NAM HAS IT OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NEBRASKA AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.  SO BY SATURDAY NIGHT
MIDNIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE UPSLOPE FOR MOST OF OUR PLAINS...
THE NAM HAS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWN LOW.  FOR MOISTURE...IT
INCREASES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NAM HAS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
SOME ALOFT FOR THE PLAINS.  THE GFS IS DRIER ALL AROUND.  ON
SATURDAY...THE GFS BRINGS MOISTURE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE NAM
HAS MOISTURE PRETTY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MOST OF THE DAY...WITH
MOISTURE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS BY
AFTERNOON.  ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS HAS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...THE NAM HAS IT OVER ALL THE CWA.
THE ECMWF LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE GFS CONCERNING SATURDAY NIGHT`S
MOISTURE.  THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BETTER AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SMALLER AMOUNTS MOVING OUT ONTO MOST OF THE PLAINS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW QUITE A BULLSEYE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE NAM HAS THE LION`S SHARE OVER THE CWA`S NORTH-CENTRAL BORDER.
ALL THE MODELS HAVE SNOW FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND SOME OF THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE WET BULB HEIGHTS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
POINT TO THIS BY 03Z SATURDAY EVENING. SO FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH
"CHANCE"S IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NOON
SATURDAY.  OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS
MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY.  WILL UP POPS TO 70-80%S BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  NO
HIGHLIGHTS RIGHT NOW.  FOR THE PLAINS...WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.  WILL GO WITH 20-30%S SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
"LIKELY"S FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE MORE IN THE
FEATURE LOCATIONS ON THE GFS AND ECMWF.  IF THE NAM COMES TRUE...THE
PLAINS WILL HAVE LESS.  FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1.5
C COOLER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED READINGS.  SATURDAY`S HIGHS COOL OFF
1-6 C...THE LEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.  FOR THE LATER DAYS...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT BY
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.   FOR MOISTURE...THE MOUNTAINS DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  THEN MOISTURE RETURNS WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE DEEPEST PROGGED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.   THE PLAINS LOOK DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES STAY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN WARM SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...MOISTURE LEVELS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL BE DECREASING
TODAY ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN FILTERING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
CEILINGS...IF ANY...SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL.  WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...BUT THEN SWITCH TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AIRPORT.  WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS THIS EVENING.  SHIFTING WIND DIRECTIONS
SHOULD BE ONLY AVIATION IMPACT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...D-L




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 730 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ATTACHED TO THIS LOW WILL AFFECT OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NUDGED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY AND LOADED IN HRRR WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

AFTER QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY, A MAINLY CLEAR AND
QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS IN STORE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHERN MIDATLANTIC TO SOUTHEAST COAST.
WINDS THAT WERE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WILL
GRADUALLY BACK AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE UNDER 10 MPH, AND IN THE MOST
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY EVEN BECOME CALM FOR A FEW HOURS. FOR MOST
AREAS, HOWEVER, WE ARE EXPECTING A LIGHT WEST WIND TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE AIR REMAINING MIXED ENOUGH TONIGHT AND
WITH RISING DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, WE DID NOT FEEL THAT ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AT BEST, IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR PATCHY FROST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LEHIGH
VALLEY, SOUTHERN POCONOS, NORTHWEST AND PINE BARREN AREAS IN NJ.
WE ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS AND IN THE HWO AND WILL SEE HOW
TEMPERATURES TREND THIS EVENING ABOUT ANY POSSIBLE HEADLINES OR
STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD DURING
SATURDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY,
AND 925MB WINDS ALONG WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY, WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON
TO EVENING, MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVER THE WEST...A H5
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING. A SFC LOW BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES
WILL STRENGTHEN AND BE CARRIE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LOW
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL BE MOSTLY
TOO FAR WAY FROM THE LOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM THE
SYSTEM. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SAT NIGHT WHEN THE ATTACHED WARM FRONT
MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCAT SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FEW OF THE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NE PA OR NRN NJ INTO EARLY SUN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUN AND MON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S IN MANY AREAS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
RATHER HIGH ALSO. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TUE.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH AND A FEW UPPER VORT MAXS MOVING WITH THE UPPER H5 FLOW. THESE
FEATURES MAY TRIGGER SCAT SHOWERS TUE-THU...SO POPS IN THE CHC/SLGT
CHC RANGE ARE IN THE GRIDS ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK CLOSER
TO NORMAL VALUES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WED-THU WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF FORECAST. WE MAY
COME CLOSE AT THE END OF THE 30HR FCST PERIOD AT KPHL.

FOR TONIGHT WHAT LIGHT WEST WINDS THERE ARE (SEA BREEZE AT KACY)
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND VARIABLE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD START ARRIVING. ITS BEEN SO DRY OF LATE
WE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG IN SPITE OF PROLONGED LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING MORE HIGH LEVEL AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO START MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PEAK WIND GUSTS SHOULD AVERAGE
CLOSE TO 20 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.

WE ARE FORECASTING VFR SHOWERS LATE IN THE 30HR KPHL, CONFIDENCE
SHOULD BE VIEWED AS AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH SATURDAY, WINDS OVER OUR WATERS WILL BE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SEAS AND WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL, WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...
WE MIGHT COME CLOSE TO OR REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING
THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SEAS MIGHT LINGER INTO PART OF TUESDAY
ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASINGLY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE FALLING DURING THE DAY, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A TIME IN MOST LOCATIONS. IN
ADDITION, WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE ALSO FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FUELS ALSO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION, THANKS TO THE
RECENT LACK OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH OUR STATE
FORESTRY PARTNERS, WE PLAN TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
SATURDAY MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT MONDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ALL 8 OF OUR CLIMATE SITES
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

                     4/16               4/17
ALLENTOWN          89 - 2002          91 - 2002, 1976
ATLANTIC CITY      89 - 2002          94 - 2002
GEORGETOWN         89 - 2002          94 - 2002
MOUNT POCONO       85 - 2002          87 - 2002
PHILADELPHIA       90 - 2002          95 - 2002
READING            88 - 2002          95 - 1976
TRENTON            90 - 2002          93 - 2002
WILMINGTON         92 - 1896          97 - 1896

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...KLINE
CLIMATE...DRAG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 129 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS AT KAPF WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST
AS A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE LEFT THE VCSH IN AFTER 18Z.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012/

UPDATE...DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A
STABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS THE LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT, WEAK DRAINAGE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. OVERALL, THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SEA
BREEZE MOVED INLAND ACROSS ALL BUT KPBI THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR SO AT MOST OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES BEFORE A DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...AND THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THEN
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. A BIT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAK FRONT MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SO ADDED VCSH AFTER 18Z FOR MOST OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER FLORIDA WILL PULL OUT
AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE DOWN THE STATE AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WHILE
BECOMING DIFFUSE ON THU-THU NIGHT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THE LACK OF MOISTURE COULD INHIBIT SHOWER
AND POSSIBLE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALL TOGETHER. HOWEVER, KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTERIOR-EAST GIVEN THE CU FIELD ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE HRRR CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN THU NIGHT-FRI...BUT JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS TO ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON AN INCREASING
NE WIND FLOW. SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR BROWARD
/MIAMI-DADE FRI.

A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN A TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME. GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS.

RIP CURRENTS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASING
ONSHORE WIND FLOW.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE NEXT WEEK AS WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST.

MARINE...LOW WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASE SEAS
ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND...NEAR 20 KT.

FIRE WEATHER...MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL
OCCUR OVER GLADES, HENDRY, AND INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A FIRE DANGER STMT REMAINS IN EFFECT. RH`S WILL
MODIFY A BIT THU-FRI BUT STILL COULD FALL DOWN TO NEAR CRITICAL
LEVELS SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  65  81  66 / 20 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  69  82  69 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI            84  68  82  68 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES           85  63  84  62 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...55/CWC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

 134 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SECONDARY DRY FRONT MOVING N TO S OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING
FOR SURGING NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS. DESPITE THE
WINDS...TEMPS WERE CONTINUING TO FALL. WINDS COULD DECOUPLE LATE
OVER FAR INLAND AREAS ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FROST. LOWS TEMPS
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MIN TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY THEN
MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE U.S.. AFTER A COLD
MORNING START...THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY IN THE
DAY. HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT ENE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE RIGHT OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL SETUP
VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...AND HAVE GONE A DEG OR TWO BELOW
LATEST GUIDANCE. NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INLAND...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY TO SCATTERED
FROST WELL INLAND. THE FROST FORECAST WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH THE SURFACE TDS RECOVER OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE...EVEN FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS...SHOWS TDS ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN THE MARGINAL
NATURE AND UNCERTAINTY...HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY FROST TO THE
FORECAST.

FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC IN THE MORNING...THEN IT MOVES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WELL NORTH OF US BY AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE SEEMS TO REINFORCE THE SURFACE RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN AREA BY AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGS WARMER...
THUS EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL VEER TO ESE BY
LATE DAY...WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S RIGHT AT
THE SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO ENE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW ESE. THIS WILL
MODERATE TEMPS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50...WHICH
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST WEST OF
THE REGION WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SETUP
A SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE LARGE
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY A CLOSED UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP AND
SIT DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO A TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FOR THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
HEIGHTS RISING UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPS WILL MODERATE NICELY AND
UPPER 80S MAY EVENTUALLY COVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
FORECAST IS DRY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT FRONT WILL NOT APPROACH
UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z/12. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS TO 20G25 KT NE WINDS AT KSAV SHORTLY AFTER 06Z THIS MORNING
AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES S OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
INCOMING DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ALL LEGS OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE LATEST RUC EVEN
SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF GALES COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER
ENTRANCE LATER TONIGHT. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON GALES IN THIS
PATTERN...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 3-5 FT
OVERNIGHT...PEAKING 4-6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN TO THE
15-20 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT. WE UPDATED OUR FORECAST EARLIER AND
INCREASED WINDS AND MENTIONED 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE HARBOR.

MODERATE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE
WATERS TO START OFF THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PINCHED
ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS TO SUSTAIN WINDS 15-20
KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE REGION WITH SSE
LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL BE 20-25 PERCENT OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING ANY
CRITICAL RH OR WIND ISSUES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1012 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR COLORADO WILL PULL A WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION WILL CAUSE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE SATURDAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES ON TO THE NORTHEAST.  AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A TEMPORARY END
TO THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND A LESSER CHANCE TO
OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MODELS
BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE AGAIN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.  ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7 BRINGING US A RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER AND
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 952 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

DRY AIR HAS ERODED EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS TO NOTHING...AND DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE EAST ARE STILL IN THE 30S WITH UPPER 20 DEWPOINTS IN
THE NORTHEAST. THUS REMOVED POPS FROM THE EAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. FROM RUC AND HRRR STILL LOOKS LIKE DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ON ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IT JUST MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST. THUS DELAYED THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
UNTIL AFTER 9Z. ALSO DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT GIVEN THE LOW
DEWPOINTS AND RATE OF TEMPERATURE FALL ALREADY...BUT THINK THIS
WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A BIT WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AND RAIN. COULD STILL SEE A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND THUS LEFT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A VERY WET DAY SATURDAY AS STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE OCCURRING AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA.  PRECIP WILL BEGIN
DIMINISHING LATE SATURDAY AND GRADUALLY END OVER ALL BUT FAR
NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH INDICATES HIGH POPS
ALL BUT FAR EASTERN SECTIONS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
EAST MONDAY MORNING.  PRECIP MAY END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
SEVERAL OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEP IN 20 PERCENT POPS AND WILL
FOLLOW SUIT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 MPH SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 MPH MONDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED WENT CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND
SATURDAY AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM IS
PRECIPITATION...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MORE LIKELY
CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT EXITING THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.
THEREFORE...WENT DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING DOWN FROM CANADA...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MUCH LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND AVERAGE.

ALL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...STUCK
WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE MAIN SYSTEM DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT IN
REGARDS TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...PER COLLABORATION...ADJUSTED ALLBLEND POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
FROM CATEGORICAL TO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LONG
TERM NATURE OF THE FORECAST AND ANY CHANGES IN TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/0300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

UPDATE...
EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATED QUICKLY IN THE DRY AIR. SO
REMOVED MENTION OF VCSH AT KIND UNTIL SAT 10Z.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS TAF
SITES...BUT A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS PREVENTING MUCH OF IT FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE SATURATED EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH BETTER LIFT IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS HEAVIER RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
ACROSS TAF SITES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SITES TO BRIEFLY
FALL TO IFR CATEGORY WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP...BUT
MVFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CATEGORY UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AND
RATHER STRONG. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 KTS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS.



&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....AJH/JH
AVIATION...TDUD







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 953 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR COLORADO WILL PULL A WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION WILL CAUSE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE SATURDAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES ON TO THE NORTHEAST.  AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A TEMPORARY END
TO THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND A LESSER CHANCE TO
OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MODELS
BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE AGAIN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.  ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7 BRINGING US A RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER AND
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 952 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

DRY AIR HAS ERODED EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS TO NOTHING...AND DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE EAST ARE STILL IN THE 30S WITH UPPER 20 DEWPOINTS IN
THE NORTHEAST. THUS REMOVED POPS FROM THE EAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. FROM RUC AND HRRR STILL LOOKS LIKE DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ON ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IT JUST MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST. THUS DELAYED THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
UNTIL AFTER 9Z. ALSO DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT GIVEN THE LOW
DEWPOINTS AND RATE OF TEMPERATURE FALL ALREADY...BUT THINK THIS
WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A BIT WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AND RAIN. COULD STILL SEE A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND THUS LEFT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A VERY WET DAY SATURDAY AS STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE OCCURRING AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA.  PRECIP WILL BEGIN
DIMINISHING LATE SATURDAY AND GRADUALLY END OVER ALL BUT FAR
NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH INDICATES HIGH POPS
ALL BUT FAR EASTERN SECTIONS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
EAST MONDAY MORNING.  PRECIP MAY END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
SEVERAL OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEP IN 20 PERCENT POPS AND WILL
FOLLOW SUIT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 MPH SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 MPH MONDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED WENT CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND
SATURDAY AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM IS
PRECIPITATION...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MORE LIKELY
CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT EXITING THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.
THEREFORE...WENT DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING DOWN FROM CANADA...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MUCH LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND AVERAGE.

ALL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...STUCK
WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE MAIN SYSTEM DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT IN
REGARDS TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...PER COLLABORATION...ADJUSTED ALLBLEND POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
FROM CATEGORICAL TO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LONG
TERM NATURE OF THE FORECAST AND ANY CHANGES IN TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS TAF
SITES...BUT A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS PREVENTING MUCH OF IT FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE SATURATED EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH BETTER LIFT IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS HEAVIER RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
ACROSS TAF SITES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SITES TO BRIEFLY
FALL TO IFR CATEGORY WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP...BUT
MVFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CATEGORY UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AND
RATHER STRONG. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 KTS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....AJH/JH
AVIATION...TDUD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 1250 PM EDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. PUSHED
SHOWERS JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE, FCST REMAINS THE
SAME.

ORGNL DISC: MOST MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SHWRS TO AFFECT
OUR FA TDY...YET LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLD-SCT SHWRS
OVR E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA...WITH MORE INTENSE AND
GREATER CVRG OF SHWRS JUST OVR THE BORDER IN NB PROV. HRRR FCST
REF SHOWS THE MORE INTENSE SHWRS WEAKENING BEFORE CROSSING WWRD
INTO E CNTRL AND SE ME THIS MORN...BUT SHOWS ADDITIONAL RN SHWRS
DEVELOPING OVR E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFTN DUE
TO DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE UNDER THE EXITING UPPER
LVL LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE BROUGHT SCT SHWRS FURTHER N THIS
MORN INTO ERLY AFTN THAN PREVIOUS UPDATES. FCST LOW VALUES OF
6HRLY QPF THRU THIS EVE WAS BASED ON INCREMENTAL INTERVALS OF POP
VALUES...AND IS RATHER A POTENTIAL OF QPF WITH INDIVIDUAL SHWRS
OVR PARTICULAR LOCATIONS RATHER THAN AN ACTUAL FCST GRADIENT OF
QPF ACROSS THIS PTN OF THE FA.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE BREEZIER ACROSS THE FA TDY...SPCLY N AND
W WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IS XPCTD. HI TEMPS WILL SHOW LESS
N-S GRADIENT THAN TYPICAL THIS TM OF SEASON DUE TO XPCTD GREATER
SUNSHINE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE N BY AFTN. ANY REMAINING SHWRS ERLY
THIS EVE SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE ESE OF DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA
BY LATE TNGT. WINDS ACROSS WRN/NRN/CNTRL VLY PTNS OF THE FA COULD
DECOUPLE LATE TNGT UNDER CLRG SKIES...ALLOWING SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SFC BASED INVSNS RESULTING IN COOLER OVRNGT LOWS OVR
THESE AREAS AS COMPARED TO RECENT PRIOR NGTS
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST
SCATTERED THIN CUMULUS AND SOME AFTERNOON CIRRUS. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S DOWN EAST WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE SATURDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS BACKING TO A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW 60S DOWN EAST. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM AND WINDY DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 60F NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN
EAST...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 50S. SUNSHINE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE THE SJV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO
THE SURFACE OVER 30 KTS. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...A SUNNY
AND WINDY DAY FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE
EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRENGTH OF WINDS. ONE
SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S NORTH AND ANOTHER DAY
IN THE MID 60S DOWN EAST. THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM ONLY GIVES
HIGHS NEAR 40F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND LOW 50S DOWN EAST. AM
FAVORING A BLEND BETWEEN THESE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH AND
MID 50S DOWN EAST. EITHER WAY...THIS IS A DRY AIR MASS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL AND WET AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE NEW
ENGLAND. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ZONES 1
THROUGH 6 TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY LOW TO MID VFR...WITH A BRIEF PD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE ERLY TO MID MORN...SPCLY DOWNEAST SITES WITH ANY SHWRS.
CLDS SHOULD CLR FROM ALL TAF SITES NW TO SE OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR. CHANCE OF IFR IN AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING RAIN
SHOWER SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO
20 KT DIMINISHING LATE TDY THRU TNGT. WE USED A BLEND OF 00Z NAM12...
GFS40 AND GMOS FOR WINDS AND A 50%/30%/20% WW3/SWAN-NAM/SWAN-GFS
FOR WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXCEPT A POSSIBLE SCA
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WAVE HTS OVER 5 FEET ARE MORE LIKELY
TO PRODUCE AN SCA DURING THIS PERIOD RATHER THAN WINDS OVER 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/MCW







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 1208 PM EDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. PUSHED
SHOWERS JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE, FCST REMAINS THE
SAME.

OTHERWISE...WE MODIFIED FCST LOWS BASED ON LATEST 10Z OBSVD SFC
TEMPS...WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA DUE TO
WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED OBS COMPARED TO FCST LOWS COMPARED TO THIS
PTN OF THE FCST AREA. WRN VLYS DID COOL TO MID TO UPPER 20S...SO
VIRTUALLY NO CHG WAS MADE TO LOW TEMPS THERE. BY MAKING THESE LATE
ADJUSTMENTS...WE ARE ABLE TO MERGE TO FCST HI TEMPS THIS AFTN AND
PRODUCE A MORE REALISTIC RISING TEMP CURVE FOR THIS MORN.

ORGNL DISC: MOST MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SHWRS TO AFFECT
OUR FA TDY...YET LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLD-SCT SHWRS
OVR E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA...WITH MORE INTENSE AND
GREATER CVRG OF SHWRS JUST OVR THE BORDER IN NB PROV. HRRR FCST
REF SHOWS THE MORE INTENSE SHWRS WEAKENING BEFORE CROSSING WWRD
INTO E CNTRL AND SE ME THIS MORN...BUT SHOWS ADDITIONAL RN SHWRS
DEVELOPING OVR E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFTN DUE
TO DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE UNDER THE EXITING UPPER
LVL LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE BROUGHT SCT SHWRS FURTHER N THIS
MORN INTO ERLY AFTN THAN PREVIOUS UPDATES. FCST LOW VALUES OF
6HRLY QPF THRU THIS EVE WAS BASED ON INCREMENTAL INTERVALS OF POP
VALUES...AND IS RATHER A POTENTIAL OF QPF WITH INDIVIDUAL SHWRS
OVR PARTICULAR LOCATIONS RATHER THAN AN ACTUAL FCST GRADIENT OF
QPF ACROSS THIS PTN OF THE FA.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE BREEZIER ACROSS THE FA TDY...SPCLY N AND
W WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IS XPCTD. HI TEMPS WILL SHOW LESS
N-S GRADIENT THAN TYPICAL THIS TM OF SEASON DUE TO XPCTD GREATER
SUNSHINE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE N BY AFTN. ANY REMAINING SHWRS ERLY
THIS EVE SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE ESE OF DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA
BY LATE TNGT. WINDS ACROSS WRN/NRN/CNTRL VLY PTNS OF THE FA COULD
DECOUPLE LATE TNGT UNDER CLRG SKIES...ALLOWING SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SFC BASED INVSNS RESULTING IN COOLER OVRNGT LOWS OVR
THESE AREAS AS COMPARED TO RECENT PRIOR NGTS
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST
SCATTERED THIN CUMULUS AND SOME AFTERNOON CIRRUS. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S DOWN EAST WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE SATURDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS BACKING TO A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW 60S DOWN EAST. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM AND WINDY DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 60F NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN
EAST...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 50S. SUNSHINE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE THE SJV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO
THE SURFACE OVER 30 KTS. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...A SUNNY
AND WINDY DAY FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE
EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRENGTH OF WINDS. ONE
SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S NORTH AND ANOTHER DAY
IN THE MID 60S DOWN EAST. THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM ONLY GIVES
HIGHS NEAR 40F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND LOW 50S DOWN EAST. AM
FAVORING A BLEND BETWEEN THESE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH AND
MID 50S DOWN EAST. EITHER WAY...THIS IS A DRY AIR MASS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL AND WET AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE NEW
ENGLAND. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ZONES 1
THROUGH 6 TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY LOW TO MID VFR...WITH A BRIEF PD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE ERLY TO MID MORN...SPCLY DOWNEAST SITES WITH ANY SHWRS.
CLDS SHOULD CLR FROM ALL TAF SITES NW TO SE OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR. CHANCE OF IFR IN AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING RAIN
SHOWER SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO
20 KT DIMINISHING LATE TDY THRU TNGT. WE USED A BLEND OF 00Z NAM12...
GFS40 AND GMOS FOR WINDS AND A 50%/30%/20% WW3/SWAN-NAM/SWAN-GFS
FOR WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXCEPT A POSSIBLE SCA
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WAVE HTS OVER 5 FEET ARE MORE LIKELY
TO PRODUCE AN SCA DURING THIS PERIOD RATHER THAN WINDS OVER 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 912 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: A LINE OF SHOWERS PERSISTS FROM JUST SOUTH OF PRESQUE ISLE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST TOWARD PATTEN AND SHERMAN SO HAVE UPDATED FORECAST
TO GO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THIS CORRIDOR.

OTHERWISE...WE MODIFIED FCST LOWS BASED ON LATEST 10Z OBSVD SFC
TEMPS...WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA DUE TO
WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED OBS COMPARED TO FCST LOWS COMPARED TO THIS
PTN OF THE FCST AREA. WRN VLYS DID COOL TO MID TO UPPER 20S...SO
VIRTUALLY NO CHG WAS MADE TO LOW TEMPS THERE. BY MAKING THESE LATE
ADJUSTMENTS...WE ARE ABLE TO MERGE TO FCST HI TEMPS THIS AFTN AND
PRODUCE A MORE REALISTIC RISING TEMP CURVE FOR THIS MORN.

ORGNL DISC: MOST MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SHWRS TO AFFECT
OUR FA TDY...YET LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLD-SCT SHWRS
OVR E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA...WITH MORE INTENSE AND
GREATER CVRG OF SHWRS JUST OVR THE BORDER IN NB PROV. HRRR FCST
REF SHOWS THE MORE INTENSE SHWRS WEAKENING BEFORE CROSSING WWRD
INTO E CNTRL AND SE ME THIS MORN...BUT SHOWS ADDITIONAL RN SHWRS
DEVELOPING OVR E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFTN DUE
TO DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE UNDER THE EXITING UPPER
LVL LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE BROUGHT SCT SHWRS FURTHER N THIS
MORN INTO ERLY AFTN THAN PREVIOUS UPDATES. FCST LOW VALUES OF
6HRLY QPF THRU THIS EVE WAS BASED ON INCREMENTAL INTERVALS OF POP
VALUES...AND IS RATHER A POTENTIAL OF QPF WITH INDIVIDUAL SHWRS
OVR PARTICULAR LOCATIONS RATHER THAN AN ACTUAL FCST GRADIENT OF
QPF ACROSS THIS PTN OF THE FA.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE BREEZIER ACROSS THE FA TDY...SPCLY N AND
W WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IS XPCTD. HI TEMPS WILL SHOW LESS
N-S GRADIENT THAN TYPICAL THIS TM OF SEASON DUE TO XPCTD GREATER
SUNSHINE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE N BY AFTN. ANY REMAINING SHWRS ERLY
THIS EVE SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE ESE OF DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA
BY LATE TNGT. WINDS ACROSS WRN/NRN/CNTRL VLY PTNS OF THE FA COULD
DECOUPLE LATE TNGT UNDER CLRG SKIES...ALLOWING SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SFC BASED INVSNS RESULTING IN COOLER OVRNGT LOWS OVR
THESE AREAS AS COMPARED TO RECENT PRIOR NGTS
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST
SCATTERED THIN CUMULUS AND SOME AFTERNOON CIRRUS. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S DOWN EAST WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE SATURDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS BACKING TO A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW 60S DOWN EAST. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM AND WINDY DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 60F NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN
EAST...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 50S. SUNSHINE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE THE SJV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO
THE SURFACE OVER 30 KTS. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...A SUNNY
AND WINDY DAY FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE
EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRENGTH OF WINDS. ONE
SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S NORTH AND ANOTHER DAY
IN THE MID 60S DOWN EAST. THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM ONLY GIVES
HIGHS NEAR 40F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND LOW 50S DOWN EAST. AM
FAVORING A BLEND BETWEEN THESE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH AND
MID 50S DOWN EAST. EITHER WAY...THIS IS A DRY AIR MASS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL AND WET AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE NEW
ENGLAND. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ZONES 1
THROUGH 6 TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY LOW TO MID VFR...WITH A BRIEF PD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE ERLY TO MID MORN...SPCLY DOWNEAST SITES WITH ANY SHWRS.
CLDS SHOULD CLR FROM ALL TAF SITES NW TO SE OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR. CHANCE OF IFR IN AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING RAIN
SHOWER SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO
20 KT DIMINISHING LATE TDY THRU TNGT. WE USED A BLEND OF 00Z NAM12...
GFS40 AND GMOS FOR WINDS AND A 50%/30%/20% WW3/SWAN-NAM/SWAN-GFS
FOR WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXCEPT A POSSIBLE SCA
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WAVE HTS OVER 5 FEET ARE MORE LIKELY
TO PRODUCE AN SCA DURING THIS PERIOD RATHER THAN WINDS OVER 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 816 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: A VERY SLOW MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE MAINE
NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER NEAR FORT FAIRFIELD SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY...SO HAVE PUT SHOWERS INTO THIS AREA THIS
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...WE MODIFIED FCST LOWS BASED ON LATEST 10Z OBSVD SFC
TEMPS...WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA DUE TO
WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED OBS COMPARED TO FCST LOWS COMPARED TO THIS
PTN OF THE FCST AREA. WRN VLYS DID COOL TO MID TO UPPER 20S...SO
VIRTUALLY NO CHG WAS MADE TO LOW TEMPS THERE. BY MAKING THESE LATE
ADJUSTMENTS...WE ARE ABLE TO MERGE TO FCST HI TEMPS THIS AFTN AND
PRODUCE A MORE REALISTIC RISING TEMP CURVE FOR THIS MORN.

ORGNL DISC: MOST MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SHWRS TO AFFECT
OUR FA TDY...YET LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLD-SCT SHWRS
OVR E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA...WITH MORE INTENSE AND
GREATER CVRG OF SHWRS JUST OVR THE BORDER IN NB PROV. HRRR FCST
REF SHOWS THE MORE INTENSE SHWRS WEAKENING BEFORE CROSSING WWRD
INTO E CNTRL AND SE ME THIS MORN...BUT SHOWS ADDITIONAL RN SHWRS
DEVELOPING OVR E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFTN DUE
TO DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE UNDER THE EXITING UPPER
LVL LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE BROUGHT SCT SHWRS FURTHER N THIS
MORN INTO ERLY AFTN THAN PREVIOUS UPDATES. FCST LOW VALUES OF
6HRLY QPF THRU THIS EVE WAS BASED ON INCREMENTAL INTERVALS OF POP
VALUES...AND IS RATHER A POTENTIAL OF QPF WITH INDIVIDUAL SHWRS
OVR PARTICULAR LOCATIONS RATHER THAN AN ACTUAL FCST GRADIENT OF
QPF ACROSS THIS PTN OF THE FA.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE BREEZIER ACROSS THE FA TDY...SPCLY N AND
W WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IS XPCTD. HI TEMPS WILL SHOW LESS
N-S GRADIENT THAN TYPICAL THIS TM OF SEASON DUE TO XPCTD GREATER
SUNSHINE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE N BY AFTN. ANY REMAINING SHWRS ERLY
THIS EVE SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE ESE OF DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA
BY LATE TNGT. WINDS ACROSS WRN/NRN/CNTRL VLY PTNS OF THE FA COULD
DECOUPLE LATE TNGT UNDER CLRG SKIES...ALLOWING SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SFC BASED INVSNS RESULTING IN COOLER OVRNGT LOWS OVR
THESE AREAS AS COMPARED TO RECENT PRIOR NGTS
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST
SCATTERED THIN CUMULUS AND SOME AFTERNOON CIRRUS. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S DOWN EAST WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE SATURDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS BACKING TO A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW 60S DOWN EAST. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM AND WINDY DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 60F NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN
EAST...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 50S. SUNSHINE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE THE SJV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO
THE SURFACE OVER 30 KTS. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...A SUNNY
AND WINDY DAY FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE
EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRENGTH OF WINDS. ONE
SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S NORTH AND ANOTHER DAY
IN THE MID 60S DOWN EAST. THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM ONLY GIVES
HIGHS NEAR 40F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND LOW 50S DOWN EAST. AM
FAVORING A BLEND BETWEEN THESE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH AND
MID 50S DOWN EAST. EITHER WAY...THIS IS A DRY AIR MASS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL AND WET AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE NEW
ENGLAND. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ZONES 1
THROUGH 6 TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY LOW TO MID VFR...WITH A BRIEF PD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE ERLY TO MID MORN...SPCLY DOWNEAST SITES WITH ANY SHWRS.
CLDS SHOULD CLR FROM ALL TAF SITES NW TO SE OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR. CHANCE OF IFR IN AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING RAIN
SHOWER SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO
20 KT DIMINISHING LATE TDY THRU TNGT. WE USED A BLEND OF 00Z NAM12...
GFS40 AND GMOS FOR WINDS AND A 50%/30%/20% WW3/SWAN-NAM/SWAN-GFS
FOR WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXCEPT A POSSIBLE SCA
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WAVE HTS OVER 5 FEET ARE MORE LIKELY
TO PRODUCE AN SCA DURING THIS PERIOD RATHER THAN WINDS OVER 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 635 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1: WITH THE HRRR MODEL CONTG TO SHOW MORE RNFL ECHOES FCST
CROSS INTO SE ME FROM SRN/CNTRL NB PROV AND RADAR OBS BACKING THIS
MODEL...WE OPTD TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY CAT ACROSS SE ME AND
ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST OF HANCOCK COUNTY FOR THIS MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN 12-18Z AND 18-24Z 6HRLY QPF GRIDS
OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA. AGAIN...FCST QPF OVR THESE AREAS REFLECTS
A POTENTIAL OF QPF WITH INDIVIDUAL MORE INTENSE SHWRS OVR THIS
AREA RATHER THAN AN ACTUAL FCST OF QPF GRADIENT.

OTHERWISE...WE MODIFIED FCST LOWS BASED ON LATEST 10Z OBSVD SFC
TEMPS...WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA DUE TO
WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED OBS COMPARED TO FCST LOWS COMPARED TO THIS
PTN OF THE FCST AREA. WRN VLYS DID COOL TO MID TO UPPER 20S...SO
VIRTUALLY NO CHG WAS MADE TO LOW TEMPS THERE. BY MAKING THESE LATE
ADJUSTMENTS...WE ARE ABLE TO MERGE TO FCST HI TEMPS THIS AFTN AND
PRODUCE A MORE REALISTIC RISING TEMP CURVE FOR THIS MORN.

ORGNL DISC: MOST MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SHWRS TO AFFECT
OUR FA TDY...YET LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLD-SCT SHWRS
OVR E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA...WITH MORE INTENSE AND
GREATER CVRG OF SHWRS JUST OVR THE BORDER IN NB PROV. HRRR FCST
REF SHOWS THE MORE INTENSE SHWRS WEAKENING BEFORE CROSSING WWRD
INTO E CNTRL AND SE ME THIS MORN...BUT SHOWS ADDITIONAL RN SHWRS
DEVELOPING OVR E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFTN DUE
TO DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE UNDER THE EXITING UPPER
LVL LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE BROUGHT SCT SHWRS FURTHER N THIS
MORN INTO ERLY AFTN THAN PREVIOUS UPDATES. FCST LOW VALUES OF
6HRLY QPF THRU THIS EVE WAS BASED ON INCREMENTAL INTERVALS OF POP
VALUES...AND IS RATHER A POTENTIAL OF QPF WITH INDIVIDUAL SHWRS
OVR PARTICULAR LOCATIONS RATHER THAN AN ACTUAL FCST GRADIENT OF
QPF ACROSS THIS PTN OF THE FA.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE BREEZIER ACROSS THE FA TDY...SPCLY N AND
W WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IS XPCTD. HI TEMPS WILL SHOW LESS
N-S GRADIENT THAN TYPICAL THIS TM OF SEASON DUE TO XPCTD GREATER
SUNSHINE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE N BY AFTN. ANY REMAINING SHWRS ERLY
THIS EVE SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE ESE OF DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA
BY LATE TNGT. WINDS ACROSS WRN/NRN/CNTRL VLY PTNS OF THE FA COULD
DECOUPLE LATE TNGT UNDER CLRG SKIES...ALLOWING SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SFC BASED INVSNS RESULTING IN COOLER OVRNGT LOWS OVR
THESE AREAS AS COMPARED TO RECENT PRIOR NGTS

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST
SCATTERED THIN CUMULUS AND SOME AFTERNOON CIRRUS. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S DOWN EAST WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE SATURDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS BACKING TO A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW 60S DOWN EAST. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM AND WINDY DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 60F NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN
EAST...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 50S. SUNSHINE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE THE SJV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO
THE SURFACE OVER 30 KTS. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...A SUNNY
AND WINDY DAY FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE
EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRENGTH OF WINDS. ONE
SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S NORTH AND ANOTHER DAY
IN THE MID 60S DOWN EAST. THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM ONLY GIVES
HIGHS NEAR 40F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND LOW 50S DOWN EAST. AM
FAVORING A BLEND BETWEEN THESE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH AND
MID 50S DOWN EAST. EITHER WAY...THIS IS A DRY AIR MASS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL AND WET AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE NEW
ENGLAND. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ZONES 1
THROUGH 6 TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY LOW TO MID VFR...WITH A BRIEF PD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE ERLY TO MID MORN...SPCLY DOWNEAST SITES WITH ANY SHWRS.
CLDS SHOULD CLR FROM ALL TAF SITES NW TO SE OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR. CHANCE OF IFR IN AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING RAIN
SHOWER SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO
20 KT DIMINISHING LATE TDY THRU TNGT. WE USED A BLEND OF 00Z NAM12...
GFS40 AND GMOS FOR WINDS AND A 50%/30%/20% WW3/SWAN-NAM/SWAN-GFS
FOR WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXCEPT A POSSIBLE SCA
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WAVE HTS OVER 5 FEET ARE MORE LIKELY
TO PRODUCE AN SCA DURING THIS PERIOD RATHER THAN WINDS OVER 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/MCW












AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 328 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SHWRS TO AFFECT OUR FA
TDY...YET LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLD-SCT SHWRS OVR E
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA...WITH MORE INTENSE AND GREATER
CVRG OF SHWRS JUST OVR THE BORDER IN NB PROV. HRRR FCST REF SHOWS
THE MORE INTENSE SHWRS WEAKENING BEFORE CROSSING WWRD INTO E CNTRL
AND SE ME THIS MORN...BUT SHOWS ADDITIONAL RN SHWRS DEVELOPING OVR
E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFTN DUE TO DESTABILIZATION
OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE UNDER THE EXITING UPPER LVL LOW. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WE BROUGHT SCT SHWRS FURTHER N THIS MORN INTO ERLY AFTN
THAN PREVIOUS UPDATES. FCST LOW VALUES OF 6HRLY QPF THRU THIS EVE
WAS BASED ON INCREMENTAL INTERVALS OF POP VALUES...AND IS RATHER A
POTENTIAL OF QPF WITH INDIVIDUAL SHWRS OVR PARTICULAR LOCATIONS
RATHER THAN AN ACTUAL FCST GRADIENT OF QPF ACROSS THIS PTN OF THE
FA.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE BREEZIER ACROSS THE FA TDY...SPCLY N AND
W WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IS XPCTD. HI TEMPS WILL SHOW LESS
N-S GRADIENT THAN TYPICAL THIS TM OF SEASON DUE TO XPCTD GREATER
SUNSHINE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE N BY AFTN. ANY REMAINING SHWRS ERLY
THIS EVE SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE ESE OF DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA
BY LATE TNGT. WINDS ACROSS WRN/NRN/CNTRL VLY PTNS OF THE FA COULD
DECOUPLE LATE TNGT UNDER CLRG SKIES...ALLOWING SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SFC BASED INVSNS RESULTING IN COOLER OVRNGT LOWS OVR
THESE AREAS AS COMPARED TO RECENT PRIOR NGTS

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST
SCATTERED THIN CUMULUS AND SOME AFTERNOON CIRRUS. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S DOWN EAST WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE SATURDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS BACKING TO A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW 60S DOWN EAST. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM AND WINDY DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 60F NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN
EAST...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 50S. SUNSHINE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE THE SJV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO
THE SURFACE OVER 30 KTS. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...A SUNNY
AND WINDY DAY FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE
EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRENGTH OF WINDS. ONE
SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S NORTH AND ANOTHER DAY
IN THE MID 60S DOWN EAST. THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM ONLY GIVES
HIGHS NEAR 40F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND LOW 50S DOWN EAST. AM
FAVORING A BLEND BETWEEN THESE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH AND
MID 50S DOWN EAST. EITHER WAY...THIS IS A DRY AIR MASS AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S
DOWN EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL AND WET AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE NEW
ENGLAND. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ZONES 1
THROUGH 6 TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY LOW TO MID VFR...WITH A BRIEF PD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE ERLY TO MID MORN...SPCLY DOWNEAST SITES WITH ANY SHWRS.
CLDS SHOULD CLR FROM ALL TAF SITES NW TO SE OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR. CHANCE OF IFR IN AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING RAIN
SHOWER SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO
20 KT DIMINISHING LATE TDY THRU TNGT. WE USED A BLEND OF 00Z NAM12...
GFS40 AND GMOS FOR WINDS AND A 50%/30%/20% WW3/SWAN-NAM/SWAN-GFS
FOR WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXCEPT A POSSIBLE SCA
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WAVE HTS OVER 5 FEET ARE MORE LIKELY
TO PRODUCE AN SCA DURING THIS PERIOD RATHER THAN WINDS OVER 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/MCW









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 140 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNSHINE AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH A WEEKEND
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED. HAVE ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS AS SKIES
HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR EAST. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. AM CONCERNED THAT SOME SC COULD REDEVELOP TOWARD DAWN, AS
THERE WILL BE WEAK MID-LEVEL CAA. HOWEVER THE WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE TOO NORTHERLY. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE DAWN, WILL STAY OPTIMISTIC FOR
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING GOING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST, WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH, AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND SUPPRESS
FURTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL, COOL NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD OFFSET INSULATION SUFFICIENTLY
TO KEEP HIGHS APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST DIRECTLY OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
TONIGHT, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
FREEZE WATCH CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCLUDING COUNTIES
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH.

CLOUDS ARE PROGGED TO BEGIN INCREASING ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION RESUMES IN ADVANCE OF A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THUS FORECAST TO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHER NUMBERS PROJECTED OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR ON
SUNDAY. KEPT SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-INDUCED CUMULUS SHOULD GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
RIDGES AROUND KDUJ AND KLBE...LEAVING JUST A FEW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
EAST...WITH CLEAR SKIES GENERALLY TO THE WEST. NAM PROFILES SUGGEST
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AT ALL SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AOA 5 KFT...MEANING NO FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS.
ADDITIONALLY...ROUGHLY 10 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD YIELD A
BRISK NW WIND THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THAT IS CURTAILED IN THE
EVENING. AS CUMULUS DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ON
THURSDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD AGAIN
DOMINATE AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR FRIDAY. WARM FRONT-ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MAY PROVIDE RESTRICTIONS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY WILL INCREASE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ041.
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ001-023-041.

&&

$$










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 128 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNSHINE AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH A WEEKEND
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED. HAVE ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS AS SKIES
HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR EAST. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. AM CONCERNED THAT SOME SC COULD REDEVELOP TOWARD DAWN, AS
THERE WILL BE WEAK MID-LEVEL CAA. HOWEVER THE WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE TOO NORTHERLY. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE DAWN, WILL STAY OPTIMISTIC FOR
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING GOING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST, WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH, AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND SUPPRESS
FURTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MINIMAL, COOL NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD OFFSET INSULATION SUFFICIENTLY
TO KEEP HIGHS APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST DIRECTLY OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
TONIGHT, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
FREEZE WATCH CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCLUDING COUNTIES
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH.

CLOUDS ARE PROGGED TO BEGIN INCREASING ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION RESUMES IN ADVANCE OF A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THUS FORECAST TO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHER NUMBERS PROJECTED OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR ON
SUNDAY. KEPT SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRENDS IN RECENT SURFACE, RADAR, AND SATELLITE DATA, ALONG WITH HRRR
MODEL OUTPUT SHOW REMAINING ISOLATED MVFR INSTABILITY SHOWERS
DISSIPATING BY 04Z. VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKEWISE ALSO BECOME
SCATTERED.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE TO 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT.

NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 12 KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN
20 KTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR FRIDAY. WARM FRONT-ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MAY PROVIDE RESTRICTIONS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY WILL INCREASE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ041.
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ001-023-041.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 823 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE WRN GULF TO THE WRN
LAKES. VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NNE THRU SW MN.
DESPITE VIGOROUS LOOK...SHRA AHEAD OF FEATURE HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS
THEY MOVE E INTO THE VERY DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE PER 12Z
KGRB SOUNDING. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION...ESPECIALLY WITH 850MB FLOW
VEERING MORE WRLY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEAKENING WITH TIME. SHRA
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AROUND VORT MAX IN SW MN MAY BRUSH THE NW FCST
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT POPS ARE WARRANTED. WHERE PCPN OCCURS...AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 0.1 INCHES.

SAT...ANY LINGERING SCT PCPN OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA WILL
MOVE OUT DURING THE MORNING AS DRY SLOT UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. DRYING COLUMN AND TREND TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING TO AT OR ABOVE 800MB SAT AFTN. PER FCST
SOUNDINGS...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 70F AWAY FROM
MARINE INFLUENCES. MIXING WILL HELP DWPTS FALL IN THE AFTN. IF
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...DWPTS WILL FALL
SEVERAL DEGREES MORE THAN REFLECTED IN THIS FCST ISSUANCE. AS IT IS
NOW...HAVE RH FALLING TO AROUND 30PCT. WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS...THERE
WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES SAT AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
W HALF WHERE TEMPS/WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME AS DEEP WESTERN TROUGHS HEADS EAST INTO THE LARGE RIDGE
OVR THE EASTERN CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN
AND TSRA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FCST TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS
AREA ON SATURDAY THEN LIFT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
BY LATER SUNDAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS SFC-H85 LOWS FORM OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHILE WARM FRONT BULGES AS FAR NORTH AS NEB AND IA BY
SATURDAY EVENING. POSITIVES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS
FACT THAT UPR MI IS WITHIN BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO JET
STREAK LIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO AND ANOTHER NOSING IN FM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. H85 THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO FCST TO ROLL ACROSS UPR LAKES.
WHILE THIS AND THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT MAY HELP TRIGGER AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS...EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTH AND EAST CWA CLOSER
TO MAXIMUM H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. PTYPE THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP STRICTLY RAIN AS H85 TEMPS ARE AOA +5C AND SFC DWPNTS REMAIN
AOA 40F. PROBABLY WILL BE A BREAK IN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING...BUT GIVEN PERSISTENT H85 THETA-E ADVECTION AND
THAT UPR JET FORCING STILL AROUND FCST WILL KEEP BROADBRUSHED CHANCE
POPS.

LATER SUNDAY...ATTN IS SQUARELY ON APPROACHING DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING INTO VCNTY OF NORTHEAST NEB INTO SOUTHWEST MN. SFC LOW FCST
TO PUSH INTO WCNTRL WI BY AFTN WHILE WARM FRONT ATTM IS FCST TO LIFT
INTO NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS SCNTRL UPR MI. TREND FM LATEST MODELS
IS FOR 12Z NAM/GFS TO BRING SFC LOW NEAR IMT BY 00Z. GIVEN SE WINDS
OFF LK MICHIGAN WOULD EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO STRUGGLE ANY FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AND/OR RE-DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AFTN AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL DRY LINE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN INTO IA. SW H85-H7 WINDS WILL ADVECT CONVECTION INTO CWA LATER
IN THE DAY WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS IF THE WARM
FRONT IS INDEED OVR NORTHERN WI/SOUTH CNTRL UPR MI GIVEN STEEP H7-H5
LAPSE RATES AOA 7C/KM JUST UPSTREAM. ALL EVENTS ARE DIFFERENT...BUT
SHOULD NOTE THAT THE UPR LEVEL AND MSLP/T/TD PATTERN LOOK SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO 10 APRIL 2011 WHEN A COUPLE CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS
IMPACTED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOME HAIL AFFECTED
PORTIONS OF CWA. SVR THREAT FOR CWA WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW FAR
NORTH WARM FRONT MAKES IT.

THIS IS DYNAMIC/SPRING PATTERN FOR SURE. 24-HOURS AGO IT LOOKED MAIN
IMPACT FM THE SYSTEM WOULD BE ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. NOW...THERE COULD BE SEVERE WX SUNDAY THEN POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH TRACK TO
SFC LOW WOULD DELAY THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
ONLY THE FAR WEST PORTION OF UPR MI. ALSO...THE FARTHER NORTH H85
BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTS IN FARTHER NORTH DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION
AREA...SO MODELS HAVE TRENDED LESS WITH PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF
LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WOULD POINT TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND MAYBE NORTH CENTRAL CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. FINAL VERDICT WITH SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM ARE
FAR FM IN...SO WILL ONLY TWEAK FCST GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW IN HWO. ALSO WILL PUT A
MENTION OF STORMS AND POSSIBLE HAIL FOR SUNDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...ONCE LOW BLOWS BY UPR LAKES...A DRY AND CHILLY
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND UPR GREAT LAKES. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH PRESS INTO UPR
GREAT LAKES IN INCREASINLY QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER COUPLE
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING MORE PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE UPR LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WELL THOUGH TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
CONSENESUS GIVES 20-30 POPS FOR NOW WHICH IS FINE. CORE OF COOLER
AIR LURKING JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR LATE IN THE WEEK COULD LEAD TO
RAIN/SNOW WITH THE SYSTEMS AS THEY MOVE THOUGH DEPENDING ON TIME OF
DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE AREA. A LOW
PRES SYSTEM LIFTING THRU MN INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND SAT WILL
BRING A FEW SHRA TO THE AREA TONIGHT. PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT
DROP VIS BLO VFR AS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NE PER OBS/SATELLITE AND
SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR TONIGHT. ON SAT...DRYING OF
THE COLUMN UNDERNEATH UPPER JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR IN THE MORNING HRS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SAT...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX
UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE WRLY FLOW THERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-25KT RANGE AT TIMES OVER MUCH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AS LOW PRES LIFTS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO
NRN ONTARIO. MIGHT SEE GUSTS AROUND 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBSERVING
PLATFORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES TO NRN ONTARIO SAT...WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SW...FAVORING THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR STRONGER
WINDS...AGAIN INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT TIMES. MIGHT SEE SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBSERVING PLATFORMS THRU ABOUT MID
AFTN DUE TO FAVORABLE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. BTWN SYSTEMS...THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 15KT SAT NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ENE
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT. NE WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE
LATE SUN ACROSS W AND CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LOW
MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES. GALES SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY MON AS WINDS BACK TO THE N BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
WINDS WILL DROP BACK UNDER 20KT TUE AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES...AND THE
LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 132 PM EDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE WRN CONUS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. A WELL-DEFINED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER NRN ONTARIO NEAR CYPL. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES
BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES LEAVING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
OVER UPPER MI AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS IN THE DRY AIRMASS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

TODAY...SINCE A VERY DRY AIRMASS DOMINATED THE REGION...PER 00Z
CYPL/KAPX/KGRB SOUNDINGS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NRN ONTARIO SHRTWV. SIMILARLY...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI...ONLY MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DESPITE
MODERATE 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND
WEST.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO
DEVELOP...KEEPING READINGS AOB 50 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. AFTERNOON
MIXING SHOULD ALSO DROP DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 20 WITH RH AOB 25 PCT
INLAND WEST.

TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS AS
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND HIGH CLOUDS ONLY MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH DOWNSLOPE SE FLOW WEST NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH
MN INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES. A BAND OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PRODUCE SCT/NMRS
SHRA MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PCPN MOVING INTO THE AREA. SINCE THE DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...ONLY MODEST PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED. WITH ELEVATED CAPE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA...PER
NAM/GFS...NO TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

H925-700 WAA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING NE ACROSS NE
LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE DRY SLOT WORKS OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS
IN THE MORNING AND QUICKLY DIMINISHES IN THE AFTN...SO HAVE LOWERED
TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NW ON SAT NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE DIMINISHED POPS
FROM W TO E DURING THE MORNING HRS AND REMOVED THEM COMPLETELY FOR
THE AFTN. COULD END UP BEING A WARM DAY ON SAT. MIXING TO H925-900
WITH THE DECREASING CLOUDS AND SSW WINDS WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...MADE ANOTHER JUMP IN THE
TEMPS /3-7 DEGREES/ FOR SAT OVER THE WRN TWO THIRDS. THIS COULD EVEN
BE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW IF THE CLOUDS REALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE AFTN
AND THE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT LK BREEZES NEAR LK
SUPERIOR.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SAT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS UPPER MI ON SAT NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVING UP FRONT WILL DETERMINE PCPN
CHANCES FOR SAT NIGHT. WITH THE WAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON PCPN CHANCES BUT CHANCES
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THIS
FRONT SHOULD SLIDE FARTHER SE AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH PCPN CHANCES
ON SUN.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FARTHER OUT INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE SW FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS TRADITIONALLY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIMING WITH THESE SITUATIONS DUE TO SHORTWAVES OVER
THE PACIFIC HAVING TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS OF RUNS HAVE BEEN NO DIFFERENT.

00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LOW PUSHING
OUT OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LKS ON MON AFTN/NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING/TRACK...BUT
STARTING TO GET A BETTER FEEL ON THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING AN
INITIAL SURGE OF WAA PCPN TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON
/24HRS EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY/...BEFORE THE PCPN REFOCUSES FARTHER
SE AND CLOSER TO THE LOW AND UPPER ENERGY. COLD AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN WILL LEAVE A COLD NEAR SFC LAYER.
ALOFT...HINTS AT A NOSE OF 1C TEMPS BETWEEN H850-700 BUT LIKELY
WON/T BE ENOUGH TO ENTIRELY MELT THE SNOW. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODELS...FOLLOWED THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE 1000-850/850-700
THICKNESS PATTERN AND USED THAT FOR PCPN TYPE. THIS PRODUCES A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE THAT WARM AIR NOSE IS OVER THE FAR SE PART OF
THE CWA AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. MODEL QPF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE/ADVISORY SNOW OVER THE WRN CWA ON MON...SO WILL BE
INTERESTING IF THAT CONTINUES ON FUTURE RUNS.

00Z GFS/GEM HOLDING ON TO THE PCPN OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ON
TUES...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES AROUND THE H850 LOW CENTERED
OVER NRN LK MI. 12Z ECMWF HAS ALREADY MOVED THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IN BY THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. THEN WILL SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND IN PCPN
ON TUES NIGHT AND WED. RIGHT NOW...00Z GFS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME. 12Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND MOVES IT THROUGH ON WED MORNING BUT THE
00Z RUN BACKED OFF ON THAT POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY
FORECAST FOR WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT THU APR 12 2012

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS
IN CONTROL OF WEATHER OVR UPR MICHIGAN. MID CLOUDS THICKEN ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING BY FRIDAY EVENING. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...LEADING TO WINDS BELOW 20KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AND INTO ONTARIO ON SAT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE...BUT THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM EXCEEDING 20KTS. THIS MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW UP TO 25KTS ON
SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...SRF









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 739 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE WRN CONUS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. A WELL-DEFINED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER NRN ONTARIO NEAR CYPL. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES
BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES LEAVING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
OVER UPPER MI AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS IN THE DRY AIRMASS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

TODAY...SINCE A VERY DRY AIRMASS DOMINATED THE REGION...PER 00Z
CYPL/KAPX/KGRB SOUNDINGS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NRN ONTARIO SHRTWV. SIMILARLY...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI...ONLY MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DESPITE
MODERATE 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND
WEST.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO
DEVELOP...KEEPING READINGS AOB 50 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. AFTERNOON
MIXING SHOULD ALSO DROP DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 20 WITH RH AOB 25 PCT
INLAND WEST.

TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS AS
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND HIGH CLOUDS ONLY MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH DOWNSLOPE SE FLOW WEST NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH
MN INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES. A BAND OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PRODUCE SCT/NMRS
SHRA MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PCPN MOVING INTO THE AREA. SINCE THE DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...ONLY MODEST PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED. WITH ELEVATED CAPE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA...PER
NAM/GFS...NO TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

H925-700 WAA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING NE ACROSS NE
LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE DRY SLOT WORKS OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS
IN THE MORNING AND QUICKLY DIMINISHES IN THE AFTN...SO HAVE LOWERED
TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NW ON SAT NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE DIMINISHED POPS
FROM W TO E DURING THE MORNING HRS AND REMOVED THEM COMPLETELY FOR
THE AFTN. COULD END UP BEING A WARM DAY ON SAT. MIXING TO H925-900
WITH THE DECREASING CLOUDS AND SSW WINDS WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...MADE ANOTHER JUMP IN THE
TEMPS /3-7 DEGREES/ FOR SAT OVER THE WRN TWO THIRDS. THIS COULD EVEN
BE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW IF THE CLOUDS REALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE AFTN
AND THE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT LK BREEZES NEAR LK
SUPERIOR.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SAT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS UPPER MI ON SAT NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVING UP FRONT WILL DETERMINE PCPN
CHANCES FOR SAT NIGHT. WITH THE WAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON PCPN CHANCES BUT CHANCES
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THIS
FRONT SHOULD SLIDE FARTHER SE AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH PCPN CHANCES
ON SUN.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FARTHER OUT INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE SW FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS TRADITIONALLY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIMING WITH THESE SITUATIONS DUE TO SHORTWAVES OVER
THE PACIFIC HAVING TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS OF RUNS HAVE BEEN NO DIFFERENT.

00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LOW PUSHING
OUT OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LKS ON MON AFTN/NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING/TRACK...BUT
STARTING TO GET A BETTER FEEL ON THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING AN
INITIAL SURGE OF WAA PCPN TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON
/24HRS EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY/...BEFORE THE PCPN REFOCUSES FARTHER
SE AND CLOSER TO THE LOW AND UPPER ENERGY. COLD AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN WILL LEAVE A COLD NEAR SFC LAYER.
ALOFT...HINTS AT A NOSE OF 1C TEMPS BETWEEN H850-700 BUT LIKELY
WON/T BE ENOUGH TO ENTIRELY MELT THE SNOW. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODELS...FOLLOWED THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE 1000-850/850-700
THICKNESS PATTERN AND USED THAT FOR PCPN TYPE. THIS PRODUCES A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE THAT WARM AIR NOSE IS OVER THE FAR SE PART OF
THE CWA AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. MODEL QPF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE/ADVISORY SNOW OVER THE WRN CWA ON MON...SO WILL BE
INTERESTING IF THAT CONTINUES ON FUTURE RUNS.

00Z GFS/GEM HOLDING ON TO THE PCPN OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ON
TUES...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES AROUND THE H850 LOW CENTERED
OVER NRN LK MI. 12Z ECMWF HAS ALREADY MOVED THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IN BY THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. THEN WILL SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND IN PCPN
ON TUES NIGHT AND WED. RIGHT NOW...00Z GFS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME. 12Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND MOVES IT THROUGH ON WED MORNING BUT THE
00Z RUN BACKED OFF ON THAT POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY
FORECAST FOR WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

PATCHY EARLY MORNING RADIATION FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT CMX AND SAW
SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING ONCE MIXING GETS UNDERWAY A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...LEADING TO WINDS BELOW 20KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AND INTO ONTARIO ON SAT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE...BUT THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM EXCEEDING 20KTS. THIS MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW UP TO 25KTS ON
SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 428 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE WRN CONUS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. A WELL-DEFINED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER NRN ONTARIO NEAR CYPL. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES
BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES LEAVING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
OVER UPPER MI AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS IN THE DRY AIRMASS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

TODAY...SINCE A VERY DRY AIRMASS DOMINATED THE REGION...PER 00Z
CYPL/KAPX/KGRB SOUNDINGS ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NRN ONTARIO SHRTWV. SIMILARLY...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI...ONLY MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DESPITE
MODERATE 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND
WEST.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO
DEVELOP...KEEPING READINGS AOB 50 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. AFTERNOON
MIXING SHOULD ALSO DROP DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 20 WITH RH AOB 25 PCT
INLAND WEST.

TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS AS
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND HIGH CLOUDS ONLY MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH DOWNSLOPE SE FLOW WEST NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH
MN INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES. A BAND OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PRODUCE SCT/NMRS
SHRA MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PCPN MOVING INTO THE AREA. SINCE THE DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...ONLY MODEST PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED. WITH ELEVATED CAPE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA...PER
NAM/GFS...NO TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

H925-700 WAA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING NE ACROSS NE
LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE DRY SLOT WORKS OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS
IN THE MORNING AND QUICKLY DIMINISHES IN THE AFTN...SO HAVE LOWERED
TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NW ON SAT NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE DIMINISHED POPS
FROM W TO E DURING THE MORNING HRS AND REMOVED THEM COMPLETELY FOR
THE AFTN. COULD END UP BEING A WARM DAY ON SAT. MIXING TO H925-900
WITH THE DECREASING CLOUDS AND SSW WINDS WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...MADE ANOTHER JUMP IN THE
TEMPS /3-7 DEGREES/ FOR SAT OVER THE WRN TWO THIRDS. THIS COULD EVEN
BE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW IF THE CLOUDS REALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE AFTN
AND THE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT LK BREEZES NEAR LK
SUPERIOR.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH ONTARIO ON
SAT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS UPPER MI ON SAT NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVING UP FRONT WILL DETERMINE PCPN
CHANCES FOR SAT NIGHT. WITH THE WAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON PCPN CHANCES BUT CHANCES
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THIS
FRONT SHOULD SLIDE FARTHER SE AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH PCPN CHANCES
ON SUN.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FARTHER OUT INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE SW FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS TRADITIONALLY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIMING WITH THESE SITUATIONS DUE TO SHORTWAVES OVER
THE PACIFIC HAVING TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS OF RUNS HAVE BEEN NO DIFFERENT.

00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LOW PUSHING
OUT OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LKS ON MON AFTN/NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING/TRACK...BUT
STARTING TO GET A BETTER FEEL ON THIS SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING AN
INITIAL SURGE OF WAA PCPN TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON
/24HRS EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY/...BEFORE THE PCPN REFOCUSES FARTHER
SE AND CLOSER TO THE LOW AND UPPER ENERGY. COLD AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN WILL LEAVE A COLD NEAR SFC LAYER.
ALOFT...HINTS AT A NOSE OF 1C TEMPS BETWEEN H850-700 BUT LIKELY
WON/T BE ENOUGH TO ENTIRELY MELT THE SNOW. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODELS...FOLLOWED THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE 1000-850/850-700
THICKNESS PATTERN AND USED THAT FOR PCPN TYPE. THIS PRODUCES A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WHERE THAT WARM AIR NOSE IS OVER THE FAR SE PART OF
THE CWA AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. MODEL QPF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE/ADVISORY SNOW OVER THE WRN CWA ON MON...SO WILL BE
INTERESTING IF THAT CONTINUES ON FUTURE RUNS.

00Z GFS/GEM HOLDING ON TO THE PCPN OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ON
TUES...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES AROUND THE H850 LOW CENTERED
OVER NRN LK MI. 12Z ECMWF HAS ALREADY MOVED THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IN BY THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. THEN WILL SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND IN PCPN
ON TUES NIGHT AND WED. RIGHT NOW...00Z GFS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME. 12Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND MOVES IT THROUGH ON WED MORNING BUT THE
00Z RUN BACKED OFF ON THAT POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY
FORECAST FOR WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE FCST PD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...LEADING TO WINDS BELOW 20KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AND INTO ONTARIO ON SAT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE...BUT THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM EXCEEDING 20KTS. THIS MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW UP TO 25KTS ON
SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...MCB
MARINE...SRF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 622 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2012


...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...


.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Tonight through Sunday)...

Surface trough extends from western IA through nw MO and through nw
OK. Boundary appears to have stalled and is delineated by cumulus
congestus on the northern portion and developing strong/possible
severe convection from southeastern KS swwd. This latter activity is
best handled by LSX local WRF while the 18z HRRR and 12z 4km NMM-WRF
models are a bit slower in their evolution. Airmass is moderately
unstable with MUCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range with 40kt 0-6km
shear and 200 m2/s2 storm relative helicity, in essence enough to
support supercells. As the low level jet kicks in this evening
expect the growing area of convection to expand east-northeastward
along a pseudo warm front that the LSX local WRF extends across the
far southern counties. This boundary and the convection will be
supported by the increasing southerly low level jet and allow the
complex to spread north toward the MO River by Saturday morning.
Have used this idea to construct grids/zones for tonight. There will
be some severe potential for the far southern counties overnight
with large hail the primary severe threat. Heavy rains are possible
over the far southern counties but 3hr flash flood guidance
averaging 2.5 inches/3 hours suggests rainfall tonight not enough to
warrant a watch.

Activity will likely be ongoing across area south of the MO River.
The warm front and convection will continue northward during the day
and have scaled back afternoon pops south of the MO River.
Temperatures will be tricky due to the rain cooled airmass and cloud
cover. Should the sun fail to come out the current temperatures,
although cooler than the previous forecast, may prove to be still
too warm.

Severe risk during the daylight hours will be tied to the morning
convection and believe it will be quite low as the airmass will
likely be quite saturated and minimal instability. Main focus for
the severe risk will be Saturday late evening into Sunday morning.
Upstream severe weather outbreak will likely advance steadily
eastward as a squall line as individual cells race northeast off the
line in excess of 50kts. Despite weakening instability during the
evening hours the low level shear will be quite high and thus still
able to support rotating individual storms through the night. As a
result there will be a risk of severe weather mainly west of
Interstate 35 for Saturday night. All storm modes...large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes...will be possible.

Sunday`s severe threat will likely be held hostage by how Saturday
night`s convective event unfolds and lays out any boundaries. Will
use a model consensus approach which suggests best convective
chances will be over the eastern half of the CWA. Rain chances will
end from west to east during the day on Sunday with Sunday night
likely dry.

MJ

Medium Range (Monday through Friday)...

By Monday the upper level trough that made for a stormy weekend will
shift east of the area and flatten out as the upper level flow
across the CONUS becomes more zonal. The main weather concerns will
revolve around two chances for precipitation, the first on Wednesday
and again Friday. High pressure will move into the area on Monday
behind a departing cold front. Temperatures will range into the
upper 50s to lower 60s. The surface ridge will remain over the area
on Tuesday as abundant sunshine will help temperatures range into
the low to mid 60s. On Wednesday a weak upper level shortwave
embedded in the zonal flow will move through the Upper Midwest
forcing a weak cold front through the area. Some light showers will
be possible with this system on Wednesday with the best chance for
showers along the Missouri/Iowa border. Thursday will feature a
return to southerly flow out ahead of another cold front moving
through the Plains. This will allow high temperatures to reach into
the 70s across the forecast area. Friday, a another upper level
shortwave will drop southeastward from the Northern Plains into the
Midwest which will force the aforementioned cold front though the
area. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday as the
front moves through thus have chance pops in for the day Friday.

73

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR cigs expected through this evening with mainly bkn cirrus
overhead. Ongoing convection across southeast Kansas gradually
building northeast but the latest thinking is that this activity
should remain south of the terminals. As the LLJ strengthens
overnight expect further expansion of precipitation to occur but
should remain focused further south as well as west. As the LLJ
noses overhead tomorrow, may begin to see thunderstorm activity
increase by the afternoon hours. Otherwise, MVFR vis and cigs
expected overnight into the early morning hours as low level moisture
continues to increase. Winds will be on the increase tomorrow and
become strong by the mid to late afternoon.

Deroche

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO EAX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 431 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Tonight-Saturday)...

A large upper trough will continue to carve out space over the
western half of the U.S. Periodic shortwave energy will eject from
the base of the trough and combine with increasing moisture and
instability to generate several rounds of strong to severe
thunderstorms across KS/MO and areas to the southwest.

In the near term, a shortwave/vorticity max combo tracking ene
through eastern KS has generated several bands of elevated
convection. Short range convective models such as the HRRR handled
the associated convection/qpf best. Other models underplayed it
although they did a reasonably good job with the h5 vorticity
fields. Activity expected to gradually diminish as it pushes through
the upper level ridge and into drier downstream airmass.

Rest of forecast concerns center on how convective development will
be affected by the elevated mixed layer(EML) that is expected to
overspread the region tomorrow and Saturday. Lacking much of a
boundary to focus on believe this EML will prove to inhibit much of
the daytime convection on Friday and Saturday. Instead will focus on
the regeneration of the southerly low level jet over the Central
Plains both nights as the primary mechanism to initiate and maintain
nighttime convection. The first occurrence will be tonight and favor
using the 12z 4km NMM-WRF for tonights activity.  An MCS is expected
to form over central/eastern NE/KS by mid evening and then roll
eastward as the low level jet veers to the southwest. The veering
allows the activity to maintain itself vs running ahead of the main
moisture source. Raised late night pops to categorical most areas.

Convection likely ongoing Friday morning but with it ending from
west to east as the EML begins to work in from the west. Conceptual
model then favors minimal if any convection so have toned down pops
for the rest of Friday/early Friday evening. Upstream redevelopment
convection may need the arrival of another shortwave and reformation
of the low level jet Friday evening. So, will again concentrate
highest pops for Friday night. Max temperatures will be tricky as
they will be greatly affected any residual cloud cover. Northeast MO
will likely be the coolest region.

Saturday should be similar to Friday in that the EML will be in
place and thus inhibit most of the convection. By Saturday a better
dryline may be in place over central KS and as a 110kt swly upper
level jet interacts with a 40kt+ southerly low level jet, expect a
squall-line of severe storms to erupt and advance eastward Saturday
evening. Severe weather could impact the western portion of the CWA
Saturday evening before it weakens. Inspection of NAM BUFR soundings
suggests that if clouds can break up many locations could challenge
the 80 degree mark.

MJ

Medium Range (Sunday through Thursday)...

Sunday...The main wave, in the form a closed upper low, associated
with the broad western CONUS trough will move into the Central
Plains. This will force a cold front into the area late in the day
on Sunday. There is much uncertainty as far as the potential for
severe weather due to ongoing showers that may be persisting across
the area in the morning and the residual cloud cover. 12Z NAM/GFS
Bufr soundings are showing only weak instability however if skies
clear, conditions could destabilize quickly with storms firing along
the cold front or along any remnant outflow boundaries from earlier
convection. This will need to be monitored further for severe
potential. Outside of the severe potential...flooding may also
become a concern over some locations as PWAT values on Sunday are
ranging from 1"-1.5". With periods of rainfall...possibly heavy in
some locations, expected Thursday night through Sunday morning and
additional heavy rain may lead to localized flooding as well as
flooding of small streams and creeks.

Monday - Thursday...We will see a pattern change as we move into the
beginning of next week. The amplified pattern that brought us
showers and thunderstorms through the weekend will become zonal
and thus tranquil. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be
slightly below average with highs ranging from the mid 50s to mid
60s. Wednesday will feature a return to southerly flow out ahead of
a weak cold front. Temperatures will move to near normal with highs
in the 60s however that will be the next chance for showers across
the area as the cold front moves through the late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. By Thursday, high pressure moves back into the area
with highs moving above normal into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

73

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs...Scattered showers with low-end VFR cigs will be
moving through the terminals between now and 21z. An isolated
lightning strike or two is possible. A much better chance for
showers and isolated thunderstorms will arrive at all 3 terminals
late this afternoon. Cigs could drop into the MVFR category with
these showers. Should see a break in the rain during the evening
hours but a larger complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected
to form over far eastern KS late this evening and affect all 3
terminals again from midnight on. This complex should be east of the
terminals shortly after sunrise Friday. MVFR cigs are likely from
late tonight through the rest of the forecast period.

Southeasterly winds will gradually pick up with winds becoming gusty
late tonight as the low level jet cranks up. In addition, BUFR
soundings indicate a low level inversion will set up when these
winds become gusty. Low-level wind shear conditions are expected
late tonight as the winds at the low-level inversion veer quickly to
the ssw and increase markedly. The low-level wind shear conditions
will end as the inversion dissipates shortly after sunrise.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO EAX











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

 1005 AM MDT THU APR 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND LOWER
POPS ACROSS THE EAST. THE HRRR MODELS IS SHOWING A DRY SLOT ACROSS
MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES TODAY. QPF IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN ZONES. DRY SLOT ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE LOOP OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS MEANS MOST IF NOT ALL
WETTING RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER PETROLEUM...WESTERN GARFIELD AND
PHILLIPS COUNTIES. THIS IS THE AREA THAT CAN EXPECT BETWEEN ONE
TENTH AND THREE TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES OF
RECEIVING A WETTING RAIN IS EXTREMELY LOW. THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY
MAY EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER INT HE AFTERNOON.
RSMITH

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF
MONTANA TODAY AS AN EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR
BAJA WILL INITIATE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. AS THE CLOSED OFF LEE
SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN MONTANA...WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST TODAY. THE ON-GOING LWA FOR FORT
PECK LAKE WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS WILL LOWER...AFTERNOON WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST
WILL RAMP BACK UP. WINDS ALOFT OF 40 KTS COULD PRODUCE QUITE A BIT
OF GUSTINESS IF BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE BY PRECIPITATION. THE FOCUS
OF THE STORM DYNAMICS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES
AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MAXIMUM
LOCAL QPF POTENTIAL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.15 INCH TO A THIRD
OF AN INCH...DEPENDING ON MODEL. MODELS HAVE BEEN OVER-DOING QPF
LATELY SO WILL TREND TO A LOWER BLEND. PRECIPITATION DROPS OFF BY
EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOTALLY NORTH AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. WITH MODELS KEEPING QPF ALL AROUND
NORTHEAST MONTANA...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
GOING TONIGHT. A RELAXED SURFACE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH EVENING
WINDS. THICKNESS HEIGHTS DO NOT DROP OFF MUCH SO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AGAIN...MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE INCREASED SKY COVER WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL
COOLER.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ENTIRE
WEST WHICH WILL CONTINUE SENDING WINDS ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH OVER
NEMONT. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE LOBE DEVELOPS IN NORTH DAKOTA
THAT COULD SEND WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BEFORE
THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT IN GENERAL NEMONT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY-SLOTTED. SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY. THICKNESS HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NOT TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THOSE TODAY. SCT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE IN THE
DRIER AND WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH IN A SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT. STRONGER AND WETTER SOUTHERN STREAM WILL STAY WELL SOUTH.
COULD STILL SEE A FEW RAIN POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY IN THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA ON
SUNDAY FROM CANADA. THE NORTH SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA DRYING OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL GIVE THE AREA DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS.
WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
ALOFT BY MID WEEK WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH ON THURSDAY. WITH SOME RUN TO RUN
TIMING DIFFERENCE...OPTED TO BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BILLINGS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WILL KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
TAF SITES INTO THIS MORNING. KGGW WILL SEE THE STRONGEST EAST
WINDS DUE TO THE LOCAL EFFECTS OF THE MILK RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THIS MORNING
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FOR FORT PECK
LAKE IN THE FORT PECK LAKE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 933 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE ARE TO TWEAK POPS AND LOW
TEMPS A BIT...AND INCLUDE A PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE FAR WEST.
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED PRECIP FROM TURTLE MOUNTAINS DOWN ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL CWA INTO THE LAKES COUNTRY OF MN...AND THE NAM AND HRRR
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON TAKING THE PRECIP NORTH AND EASTWARD FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. TRIMMED POPS IN THE WEST...PARTICULARLY THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH COULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. WITH
THE CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL SOME FOG FORMATION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME LOW VIS AREAS
SETTING UP IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE SPOILER WILL BE WESTERLY
WINDS PICKING UP LATER TONIGHT AND BRINGING IN MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. STILL...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES BEFORE THE DRIER AIR STARTS COMING IN...SO PUT IN A PATCHY
FOG MENTION IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. THE
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A BIT MORE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...SO CUT LOWS A BIT THERE. ALSO DECREASED LOWS A
DEGREE OR TWO IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING COOLER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS ARE MVFR OR IFR...WITH -RA RESTRICTING VIS TO THE
2-5SM RANGE IN SOME PLACES. THE RA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TAF SITES BY 12Z. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT...AND SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. DO NOT AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL IMPACT ANY TAF
SITES...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THEM. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR
BY THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012/

SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FURTHER NORTH
SOLUTION FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION AND
CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTH AND EAST. THERE COULD BE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER UNDER THE UPPER CIRCULATION...AND WILL
MENTION THROUGH 06Z. TEMPS WON/T FALL TOO MUCH GIVEN CLOUDS AND
RAIN SHOWERS.

ON SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NE...WHERE SOME
MORNING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM NICELY WITH
FAVORABLE WESTERLY SFC FLOW TURNING NORTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY.

FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...A STRONG SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK INTO
SOUTHERN MN. THERE WILL BE STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
LARGE SCALE LIFTING AND DEEP MOISTURE. THERE COULD BE SOME
ELEVATED THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTH SAT NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BECOME VERY WINDY SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH WITH TEMPS LIKELY FALLING
BY AFTERNOON.  THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
BRING PRECIP FURTHER NORTH...SO SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
DID INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTH AND SPREAD PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS
GFK ON SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A WINDOW FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WON/T
MENTION ANY AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM (TUE THRU FRI)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS EAST OF THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHERLY AND A WARM RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT... ALL SPELLING
A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE MID WEEK POINT.
BY WEDNESDAY... THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND MORE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. AT THIS POINT HAVE STUCK TO RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE MAIN THREAT... WITH THUNDER EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CANAM
BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
JR






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

 1158 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE
TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...

EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR REMAIN ON THE COOL AND STABLE SIDE OF
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM NE TX TO THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE.
CLUSTERS OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE REGION ARE FORECAST
TO SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY EAST INTO WEST/NORTHWEST OK TONIGHT AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES DUE TO STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT ALL
THE WAY OVER INTO NORTHEAST OK BY 12Z. THE NEW 00Z NAM AND THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST IT WILL STAY WEST. THE SREF AND
OTHER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FAR WEST. THUS...I
WILL TREND THE FORECAST THAT WAY...KEEPING ONLY A LOW SLGT CHC POP
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 75. ALSO MADE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TWEAK TO THE
LOWS AS PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DROP OFF THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT
HOWEVER...AND THIS WILL PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS
TONIGHT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  69  61  76 /  10  40  20  20
FSM   49  67  53  78 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   53  70  62  77 /  10  30  10  20
BVO   49  68  59  76 /  10  50  30  30
FYV   43  64  53  75 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   42  64  51  75 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   51  69  57  76 /  10  30  20  20
MIO   46  65  55  75 /  10  30  30  20
F10   52  70  61  76 /  10  30  20  20
HHW   54  71  59  77 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 237 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT/
MAIN UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION A BIT EARLIER
THIS MORNING...AND TO LOWER AFTERNOON CHANCES A BIT AS SHOWERS
LOOK TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED. MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR BROAD BRUSHING THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION UNTIL 00Z...AND OTHER MODELS NOT CAPTURING CURRENT
RAINFALL AND HOLDING OFF WITH ANY ACCUMULATION UNTIL THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...FEEL AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A BREAK STARTING IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER THE MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THEN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION STARTING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. WILL PLAN
TO KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FUTURE
HRRR RUNS IF THEY BECOME AVAILABLE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE
THIS MORNING AS NEEDED. /LAFLIN

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END AT KFSD BY 21Z...BUT
WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE KSUX AREA UNTIL AROUND 23Z TO 00Z. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION AND AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER RAIN SHOWERS END. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND A SECOND AREA OF RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO LATE MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FOR ALL
TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS RAIN ENDS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD STAY PREDOMINANTLY MVFR. /LAFLIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT/
ABOUT AS COMPLEX A FORECAST AS CAN GET THIS MORNING...WITH
EVERYTHING FROM FIRE WEATHER...TO RAIN TIMING OVER A 5 DAY PERIOD...
SEVERE WEATHER...AND EVEN SNOW TO CONSIDER. SPRING IN ITS FINEST
FORM.

RIDGE ACROSS PLAINS STARTS TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS ENERGY RIDES UP
THE ROCKIES SIDE. LEADING WAVE IS SHEARING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN
WYOMING TO EASTERN COLORADO...AND RECENTLY HAS AIDED IN DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA. MOISTURE RETURN IS TAKING THE LONG WAY AROUND...THROUGH
THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH DEEP DRY LAYER TO
DISPLACE IN THE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY.  NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE LEADING SYSTEM
TODAY...AND STILL FEEL AS IF POPS MAY APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE.
EVOLUTION EXPECTED TO FIND A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LIGHT
SHOWERS PUSHING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. NOTHING OUT THERE
YET...BUT INCREASE IN 850-700 THETA E ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO
GENERATE SOME SHRA BY DAYBREAK IN THE WESTERN THIRD. EASTWARD
MOVEMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT WITH DRIER AIRMASS AT LOWER
LEVELS...BUT WITH SOME INSTABILITY ROOTED AT 800-750 HPA...SHOWERY
PRECIP SHOULD INCREASINGLY THREATEN TO REACH THE GROUND...AND WHILE
FAIRLY UNLIKELY...COULD SEE A REMOTE RUMBLE OR TWO WITHIN THE BAND.
COVERAGE MAY MAX OUT AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ENTIRE
ZONE WEAKENING THROUGH LATER AFTERNOON PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

MUCH MORE IMPRESSED BY THE SYSTEM ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN
NW ARIZONA...WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH DEEP LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD FOCUS A MORE IMPRESSIVE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY ON THE NOSE OF MID LEVEL DRYING WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME
BETTER THUNDER COVERAGE AS WELL.  PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE NORTH
AND EAST EARLY IN THE DAY...AND THEN MAY FIND A LARGELY QUIET PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL JET VEERING EAST...AND WITH JET DRIVING FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...SHOULD ERODE THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEST
TO EAST. IN FACT...WILL YIELD A FAIRLY MIXY DAY FOR THE AREA WHICH
CLEARS...WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE
CLOUDS SHROUDING THE FAR EAST COULD KEEP READINGS CLOSER TO 60. FIRE
DANGER FOR THE MOMENT CAME OUT HIGH...BUT IF DEWPOINTS CAN COLLAPSE
AND WINDS UP A BIT MORE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO FIND VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...IN WARMER WEDGE BETWEEN APPROACHING FRONT AND THE MOIST
AXIS TO THE EAST.

NOT MUCH OF ANY APPRECIABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT KEPT JUST A VERY LOW END POP
AGAIN BY LATER AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE RIDING QUICKLY IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY IMPACT SOME
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON...AND MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM GIVEN THE LONG HODOGRAPH AND UP TO 750 J/KG
WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY.

SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN WILL LIKELY STALL IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND GET COMBINATION OF ENHANCE WARM AIR
ADVECTION/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FOCUSING PRECIPITATION FROM LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. ONE WAVE
WILL FOCUS A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE PEELING EASTWARD. THIS MAY PRESENT A RISK
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
TOWARD SPENCER IOWA...WITH DEEP INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
FROM 1500-2000 J/KG...AS WELL AS VERY LONG HODOGRAPHS...AND SHEAR
NICELY FOCUSED DOWN LOW NEAR THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

BIG CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN EVOLVING CONSENSUS OF
CLOSED OFF SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. QUITE A CONSENSUS DEVELOPING QUICKLY...AND NOW LOOKS TO
BE AT BEST A MIXED PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...AND VERY LIKELY SOME AREAS
WITH ALL SNOWFALL. AT FACE VALUE...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS ON ORDER OF -4
TO -8C ON NORTHWEST FLANK OF SYSTEM BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER INTO NORTHWEST IOWA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM ON THE TRACK OF MID LEVEL
WAVE...BUT FOR THE MOMENT HAVE DESIGNED FORECAST ON A MORE MODEST
WESTERN TRACK WHICH WOULD PLACE GREATER THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION/
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG
THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE...WITH DRY SLOT PUNCHING
IN NEAR KFSD AND EASTWARD...THEN PRECIP WRAPPING EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. A LOT OF DETAILS WILL SHAKE OUT THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO END UP WITH A HIGHLIGHT WORTHY EVENT
GIVEN THE CURRENT CONSENSUS. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD FIND IT DIFFICULT
TO GET MUCH PAST THE LOWER 40S ON FULL MIXING ON MONDAY WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHEAST...AND USED A BLEND OF RAW
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH FORECAST FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. KEPT IN THE
VERY SMALL POPS ON WEDNESDAY TO REFLECT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW. NOT
MUCH POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN...BUT VERY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS
AND WILL BE LIKELY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME MID LEVEL SHOWERS.
/CHAPMAN

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.

&&

$$











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 957 AM CDT THU APR 12 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT/
MAIN UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION A BIT EARLIER
THIS MORNING...AND TO LOWER AFTERNOON CHANCES A BIT AS SHOWERS
LOOK TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED. MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR BROAD BRUSHING THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION UNTIL 00Z...AND OTHER MODELS NOT CAPTURING CURRENT
RAINFALL AND HOLDING OFF WITH ANY ACCUMULATION UNTIL THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...FEEL AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A BREAK STARTING IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER THE MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THEN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION STARTING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. WILL PLAN
TO KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FUTURE
HRRR RUNS IF THEY BECOME AVAILABLE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE
THIS MORNING AS NEEDED. /LAFLIN

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH MOST
OF THE DAY IT WILL REMAIN AT A LOW END VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WHILE THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA WILL HAVE
THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
SPOTTY MVFR VISIBILITIES. /08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT/
ABOUT AS COMPLEX A FORECAST AS CAN GET THIS MORNING...WITH
EVERYTHING FROM FIRE WEATHER...TO RAIN TIMING OVER A 5 DAY PERIOD...
SEVERE WEATHER...AND EVEN SNOW TO CONSIDER. SPRING IN ITS FINEST
FORM.

RIDGE ACROSS PLAINS STARTS TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS ENERGY RIDES UP
THE ROCKIES SIDE. LEADING WAVE IS SHEARING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN
WYOMING TO EASTERN COLORADO...AND RECENTLY HAS AIDED IN DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA. MOISTURE RETURN IS TAKING THE LONG WAY AROUND...THROUGH
THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH DEEP DRY LAYER TO
DISPLACE IN THE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY.  NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE LEADING SYSTEM
TODAY...AND STILL FEEL AS IF POPS MAY APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE.
EVOLUTION EXPECTED TO FIND A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LIGHT
SHOWERS PUSHING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. NOTHING OUT THERE
YET...BUT INCREASE IN 850-700 THETA E ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO
GENERATE SOME SHRA BY DAYBREAK IN THE WESTERN THIRD. EASTWARD
MOVEMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT WITH DRIER AIRMASS AT LOWER
LEVELS...BUT WITH SOME INSTABILITY ROOTED AT 800-750 HPA...SHOWERY
PRECIP SHOULD INCREASINGLY THREATEN TO REACH THE GROUND...AND WHILE
FAIRLY UNLIKELY...COULD SEE A REMOTE RUMBLE OR TWO WITHIN THE BAND.
COVERAGE MAY MAX OUT AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ENTIRE
ZONE WEAKENING THROUGH LATER AFTERNOON PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

MUCH MORE IMPRESSED BY THE SYSTEM ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN
NW ARIZONA...WHICH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH DEEP LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD FOCUS A MORE IMPRESSIVE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY ON THE NOSE OF MID LEVEL DRYING WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME
BETTER THUNDER COVERAGE AS WELL.  PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE NORTH
AND EAST EARLY IN THE DAY...AND THEN MAY FIND A LARGELY QUIET PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL JET VEERING EAST...AND WITH JET DRIVING FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...SHOULD ERODE THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEST
TO EAST. IN FACT...WILL YIELD A FAIRLY MIXY DAY FOR THE AREA WHICH
CLEARS...WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE
CLOUDS SHROUDING THE FAR EAST COULD KEEP READINGS CLOSER TO 60. FIRE
DANGER FOR THE MOMENT CAME OUT HIGH...BUT IF DEWPOINTS CAN COLLAPSE
AND WINDS UP A BIT MORE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO FIND VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...IN WARMER WEDGE BETWEEN APPROACHING FRONT AND THE MOIST
AXIS TO THE EAST.

NOT MUCH OF ANY APPRECIABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT KEPT JUST A VERY LOW END POP
AGAIN BY LATER AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE RIDING QUICKLY IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY IMPACT SOME
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON...AND MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM GIVEN THE LONG HODOGRAPH AND UP TO 750 J/KG
WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY.

SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN WILL LIKELY STALL IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND GET COMBINATION OF ENHANCE WARM AIR
ADVECTION/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FOCUSING PRECIPITATION FROM LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. ONE WAVE
WILL FOCUS A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE PEELING EASTWARD. THIS MAY PRESENT A RISK
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
TOWARD SPENCER IOWA...WITH DEEP INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
FROM 1500-2000 J/KG...AS WELL AS VERY LONG HODOGRAPHS...AND SHEAR
NICELY FOCUSED DOWN LOW NEAR THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

BIG CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN EVOLVING CONSENSUS OF
CLOSED OFF SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. QUITE A CONSENSUS DEVELOPING QUICKLY...AND NOW LOOKS TO
BE AT BEST A MIXED PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...AND VERY LIKELY SOME AREAS
WITH ALL SNOWFALL. AT FACE VALUE...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS ON ORDER OF -4
TO -8C ON NORTHWEST FLANK OF SYSTEM BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER INTO NORTHWEST IOWA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM ON THE TRACK OF MID LEVEL
WAVE...BUT FOR THE MOMENT HAVE DESIGNED FORECAST ON A MORE MODEST
WESTERN TRACK WHICH WOULD PLACE GREATER THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION/
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG
THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE...WITH DRY SLOT PUNCHING
IN NEAR KFSD AND EASTWARD...THEN PRECIP WRAPPING EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. A LOT OF DETAILS WILL SHAKE OUT THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO END UP WITH A HIGHLIGHT WORTHY EVENT
GIVEN THE CURRENT CONSENSUS. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD FIND IT DIFFICULT
TO GET MUCH PAST THE LOWER 40S ON FULL MIXING ON MONDAY WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHEAST...AND USED A BLEND OF RAW
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH FORECAST FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. KEPT IN THE
VERY SMALL POPS ON WEDNESDAY TO REFLECT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW. NOT
MUCH POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN...BUT VERY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS
AND WILL BE LIKELY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME MID LEVEL SHOWERS.
/CHAPMAN

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

 1022 PM MDT WED APR 11 2012

.AVIATION...06Z TAF FORECAST
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AREA OF ST OVER
THE SD PLAINS/SOUTHEAST WY WILL EXPAND TONIGHT BRINGING AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS. -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED -TSRA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS
WINDS GAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM MDT WED APR 11 2012/

UPDATE...02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER WESTERN WY WITH HIGH
OVER MN/IA AND DECENT GRADIENT OVER THE CWA. DIURNAL EFFECTS
ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE SOME THIS EVENING AND THUS WINDS
HAVE SLACKENED ENOUGH OVER NORTHWEST SD TO ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE.

00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWED LARGE INVERSION WITH VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE LAYER AROUND 750MB...WHICH IS ALSO THE BASE OF ABOUT
961J/KG MUCAPE. LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN UNABLE TO TAP INTO
MUCAPE...LIKELY BECAUSE THE LAYER IS SO THIN. MOISTURE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR ST EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS PER FOG PRODUCT.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN UT MAKING IT/S
WAY NORTH. 18Z/21Z/00Z RUC HAVE PAINTED SLOWER START TO POPS IN
THE CWA TONIGHT...AND 00Z NAM FOLLOWS THIS TREND AS WELL AS
IR/REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS. WILL PULL BACK NORTHEAST EXTENT OF POPS
TONIGHT. BUT AS SHORTWAVE REACHES WY CWA FROM 06Z-09Z...SHOULD
SEE ELEVATED -SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

UPDATED FORECAST WILL REFLECT THESE THOUGHTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM MDT WED APR 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
EAST-CENTRAL ID...WITH SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN WY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE EAST OF THE
AREA...OVER THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH LONGWAVE
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHERN NV...MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED OVER CO...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SD.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE BLACK HILLS TO NEAR 70 OVER CAMPBELL
COUNTY WY.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST MOVES
EAST AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS TO CROSS THE REGION.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AFTER A WARM DAY IN MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY...A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING IN MOST
AREAS...WITH THE GUSTY WINDS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD. HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN SD PLAINS AS WINDS HAVE STAYED BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND GENERALLY WILL INTO THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS SHORTWAVE OVER CO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE. WEAKER IMBEDDED
ENERGY IN THE FLOW COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER AIR IN AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...WARMEST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND AS LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA. THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW...THE
MAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY...THE BLACK HILLS AND TOWARD CENTRAL SD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW LIKELY ALLOWING
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAS THE
MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA...SO
WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS...50S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS.

EXTENDED...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF
UPPER WAVES WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE TROUGH AND CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST SOLUTIONS
AND BROAD BRUSH PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1230 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC MVFR CLOUD DECK NEAR DRT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SCT-BKN VFR THRU 20Z. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN VFR CU FIELD ACROSS ERN
TAF SITES THRU THE AFTN. ISOLD SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE
AFTN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BUT COVERAGE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. ISOLD TSRA COULD DRIFT TO NEAR DRT BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z
BUT CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN DRT TAF. MVFR
CIGS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AGAIN 04Z-06Z ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AND
SPREADING WESTWARD TO DRT AFTER 08Z. S TO SE WINDS THIS AFTN WILL
BE GUSTY IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX/

DISCUSSION...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...NEAR
THE ESCARPMENT. 06Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ALONG WITH HRRR HINTING AT QPF
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. INSERTED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTENTION EARLY THIS EVENING TURNS
OUT WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
DEVELOP.

WFO CRP WILL CONTINUE BACKING UP WFO EWX THROUGH 18Z. AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE COMPLETED BY WFO EWX.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU APR 12 2012/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM TX UP THROUGH THE GREAT
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS
MOVED ON TO THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
BASE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
WHICH ARE DISSIPATING. IN THE SHORT TERM...THU WILL BE DRY WITH
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AS
THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM TX. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SPC
SLIGHT RISK AREA IS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
THIS WEEKEND CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE. SAT THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST. SAT NIGHT THE SLIGHT CHANCE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THEN SUN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE SUN
NIGHT AND MON. MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH CAPE AND STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE. THERE IS A CHANCE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE SUN NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SEVERE MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT
POSSIBILITY EXISTS. UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MON NIGHT AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  67  83  70  84 /  20  -   10  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  65  83  68  84 /  20  -   10  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  64  82  67  83 /  20  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  65  82  67  83 /  20  -   10  10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  68  86  69  89 /  -   20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  65  81  67  82 /  20  -   10  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  66  83  67  86 /  10  -   10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  65  81  68  83 /  20  -   10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  66  81  69  83 /  20  -   10  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       82  67  83  69  84 /  20  -   10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           83  66  83  69  85 /  10  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 1109 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

.AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS CONTINUE OVER THE PATH AND LONGEVITY OF THIS
EVENING/S CONVECTION IN THE PANHANDLE. HRRR AND OUNWRF ARE MORE
EAGER ABOUT BRINGING AN MCS EASTWARD...BUT NAM/GFS AND LOCAL WRF
ARE NOT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE METROPLEX DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT TSRA PROPAGATION...SO FEEL THAT
ANYTHING THAT REACHES METROPLEX SHOULD BE ON THE WANE. HAVE ADDED
VCSH TO MORNING GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE REMNANTS IF THEY
SURVIVE/ARRIVE. 84

&&

.UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH WEAK OUTFLOW FROM LATE DAY
STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF THE DFW METRO EARLIER HAS NOW SLID WEST
AS A FAIRFIELD...CORISCANA...FORT WORTH...AND BRIDGEPORT LINE...
WITH A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT WITH EAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS 2-4 DEGREES
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH LESS COULD COVER AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEW PTS.

MODELS OUTSIDE OF THE NAM12/HRRR ARE WAY OVERDOING EXPECTED
CONVECTION DUE TO BEING TOO UNSTABLE AND TOO FAST WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATION OF STORMS OCCURRING ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS. 00Z FWD SOUNDING ALSO INDICATING BARELY AN INCH OF
PWAT WITH ONLY 400 J/KG CAPE...WITH BEST LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG
C/KM REMAINING ACROSS WESTERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

WILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN 09Z-
15Z THURSDAY MORNING NW OF A SHERMAN...DECATUR...MINERAL WELLS LINE
WITH A ISOLATED COVERAGE AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS A DFW METRO TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE LATE TONIGHT. AGAIN...WEAK WIND THROUGH 500MB
...SEMI-MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND A WEAK LLJ
INDICATE STORMS WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BEFORE AFFECTING AREAS
WEST THROUGH NORTH OF DFW AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY EXTENDED ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND
BOWIE TO PLANO TO CANTON AT 3 PM AND CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE METROPLEX. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
PRESENT...A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. STORM MOTION IS VERY SLOW GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW...WITH MOVEMENT GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST LESS THAT 10 MPH.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE TAKES HOLD. WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTER 7 PM FOR AREAS CURRENTLY AFFECTED BY FRONTAL ACTIVITY.

NEXT...WILL BE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE VAGUELY SHOWING UP OVER NEW
MEXICO ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE. MODELS DEPICT THIS FEATURE
ROTATING EAST AROUND THE 500 MB RIDGE AND ENHANCING ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH. NAM MAY ONCE AGAIN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH MCS/COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT...AND SUBSEQUENT SOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP NORTH
OF I 20 AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS IT CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY IGNORED...AND WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
FURTHER SOUTHEAST INCLUDING THE DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. LOW-END POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND
DUE MAINLY TO WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS. THIS WILL CHANGE ABRUPTLY
INTO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERSPREADS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
AS WITH ANY PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH DURING THE SPRING
MONTHS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER COULD BOTH BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER
DRIER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST AND THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  78  64  79  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              63  79  64  78  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             53  73  60  76  60 /  10  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            58  77  64  77  63 /  10  20  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          56  75  63  75  62 /  10  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            62  78  64  78  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           58  76  62  78  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         61  78  62  79  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            63  79  63  79  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  78  62  78  64 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

 511 AM PDT Thu Apr 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will continue today with cooler and breezier conditions
expected with the showery pattern continuing through the weekend. A
series of systems will move through the region next week bringing
more unsettled weather.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: As of 2:00 AM Thursday morning, the closed
upper level low pressure circulation is at 140 W 45 N. This upper
level low is expected to shift southeast toward northern
California through tonight. The short wave trough that moved
through the region last night is swinging into the Idaho Panhandle
as is expected to moved to the northeast of the region through the
early morning hours. Precipitation amounts with this disturbance
were not very impressive. Hydrographs in the Idaho Panhandle do
show some rises in response to some snow melt, but do not expect
last night`s precipitation or any from this afternoon to have much
of an impact. The Flood Watch for the Coeur d`Alene River at
Cataldo will remain in effect and will make a decision on what to
do with it late this morning, but the lack of rainfall overnight
may not quite push it up to flood stage. Will continue to monitor
through the morning hours.

There are a couple other little disturbances moving across or into
the western United States behind this shortwave through the
southerly flow. The first is moving into northern Oregon at this
time. Satellite imagery and observations across this area show
some mid level cloud cover associated with this weak wave.
Pendleton`s radar also shows some lite returns, but as of this
time no precipitation has been recorded. Models are not very
excited with this wave as it moves through the region this
morning. Both the NAM and the HRRR models generate some light
precipitation from the northeast Blue Mountains northeast into the
Central Panhandle and up along the east slopes of the northern
Cascades, but other than that only cloud cover and maybe some
sprinkles expected.

The second little wave is expected to move into the region during
the afternoon hours. This will likely play a role in enhancing
showers across much of the region. Models have been doing a poor
job in resolving moisture parameters over the last couple of days.
Due to this fact, confidence is not high with any convective
parameters. With that said, it does appear that the models are
doing a better job this morning capturing observed dew point
temperatures. Both the NAM and GFS CAPE values look much more
reasonable for this afternoon. However, the GFS still looks to be a
bit too unstable over the Idaho Panhandle and preferred the NAM in
this aspect. Most unstable CAPE values off of the NAM generally
range between 200 and 350 J/KG with the higher values across the
southwestern half of the region following this second disturbance.
This is sufficient enough to generate a few lightning strikes, but
considering that models have not had a great track record, decided
to not put thunderstorms into the forecast. The more favorable
areas for any thunderstorms wold be across the higher terrain,
especially over the northeast Blue Mountains and Cascades.
However, even a lightning strike or two will be possible across
the basin as well.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler this afternoon due to much
colder 850 mb temperatures, especially across the northeastern
half of the region (between 4 to 9 degrees Celsius cooler across
this area compared to yesterday afternoon). More cloud cover will
help to keep temperatures cooler today compared to yesterday as
well. Winds will be a little breezy this afternoon as good mixing
bring down slightly stronger winds aloft with gusts up to 20 to 25
mph in places. /SVH

Friday through Sunday night...On Friday a large closed low will move
into California with a second low over British Columbia and
Alberta. The Inland Northwest will be in between these two
features. However cold temperatures aloft with 500mb values of
-28C will promote an unstable atmosphere during peak heating with
showers likely developing over the mountains with a few valley
showers also possible. There is also chance for morning showers
over the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie with a weak wave moving
up out of NE Oregon. A stray lightning strike is also possible
but with marginal convective parameters will leave out of
forecast. On Saturday and Sunday the closed low to the north
becomes an open wave and slowly drops southeast into the area.
The ECMWF has been the most consistent with this idea with the GFS
and NAM trending towards the ECMWF with showers lingering
especially over the mountains both Saturday and Sunday. Thus
precipitation chances were increased on Sunday especially over the
Idaho Panhandle.

Monday through Wednesday...The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models are in
good agreement of a transition to a zonal flow pattern on Monday
with several systems expected to move through the Inland Northwest
next week. The first one arrives on Monday but is not particularly
strong with models generating around a tenth of an inch qpf
valleys and a quarter inch mountains with snow levels 5000-6000
feet. A stronger system arrives Wednesday bringing more unsettled
conditions. Yet another system is possible late next week.
Precipitation chances were increased Monday and Wednesday with the
expected unsettled weather.

Near normal temperatures are expected through the extended period
although cloud cover and precipitation will likely play a role for
high temperatures and may result in below normal readings at times. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Stratus has developed behind the exiting system early this
morning across the northern valleys including at KSFF and KCOE. LIFR
cigs at KLWS is not being resolved at all by model guidance, but
this should break up and lift quickly with sunrise. All areas will
see a chance for some afternoon convection, but best chances will be
over the mountains. Models generally just show some disorganized
shower activity, which will be highly diurnal in nature. This is
addressed with VCSH in the TAFs through the afternoon. A weak
disturbance moving north into the region this afternoon may act to
enhance the shower activity, but it will continue to weaken as it
approaches the region. There is a small chance for a thunderstorm at
any TAF site with the likeliest spot over the Blue Mountains that
could potential drift into KLWS or KPUW. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  37  55  36  56  37 /  40  20  20  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  54  36  54  35  56  37 /  40  20  20  10  30  20
Pullman        52  34  55  34  54  36 /  50  40  20  10  20  10
Lewiston       58  38  59  39  59  40 /  40  40  20  10  10  10
Colville       58  38  58  36  62  38 /  50  20  20  10  40  40
Sandpoint      54  36  53  34  55  34 /  60  30  30  10  40  40
Kellogg        51  35  51  33  54  35 /  60  30  40  10  40  20
Moses Lake     61  36  62  36  62  38 /  20  20  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      60  38  60  39  62  41 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           61  38  60  35  62  38 /  20  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

 258 AM PDT Thu Apr 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will continue today with cooler and breezier conditions
expected with the showery pattern continuing through the weekend. A
series of systems will move through the region next week bringing
more unsettled weather.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: As of 2:00 AM Thursday morning, the closed
upper level low pressure circulation is at 140 W 45 N. This upper
level low is expected to shift southeast toward northern
California through tonight. The short wave trough that moved
through the region last night is swinging into the Idaho Panhandle
as is expected to moved to the northeast of the region through the
early morning hours. Precipitation amounts with this disturbance
were not very impressive. Hydrographs in the Idaho Panhandle do
show some rises in response to some snow melt, but do not expect
last night`s precipitation or any from this afternoon to have much
of an impact. The Flood Watch for the Coeur d`Alene River at
Cataldo will remain in effect and will make a decision on what to
do with it late this morning, but the lack of rainfall overnight
may not quite push it up to flood stage. Will continue to monitor
through the morning hours.

There are a couple other little disturbances moving across or into
the western United States behind this shortwave through the
southerly flow. The first is moving into northern Oregon at this
time. Satellite imagery and observations across this area show
some mid level cloud cover associated with this weak wave.
Pendleton`s radar also shows some lite returns, but as of this
time no precipitation has been recorded. Models are not very
excited with this wave as it moves through the region this
morning. Both the NAM and the HRRR models generate some light
precipitation from the northeast Blue Mountains northeast into the
Central Panhandle and up along the east slopes of the northern
Cascades, but other than that only cloud cover and maybe some
sprinkles expected.

The second little wave is expected to move into the region during
the afternoon hours. This will likely play a role in enhancing
showers across much of the region. Models have been doing a poor
job in resolving moisture parameters over the last couple of days.
Due to this fact, confidence is not high with any convective
parameters. With that said, it does appear that the models are
doing a better job this morning capturing observed dew point
temperatures. Both the NAM and GFS CAPE values look much more
reasonable for this afternoon. However, the GFS still looks to be a
bit too unstable over the Idaho Panhandle and preferred the NAM in
this aspect. Most unstable CAPE values off of the NAM generally
range between 200 and 350 J/KG with the higher values across the
southwestern half of the region following this second disturbance.
This is sufficient enough to generate a few lightning strikes, but
considering that models have not had a great track record, decided
to not put thunderstorms into the forecast. The more favorable
areas for any thunderstorms wold be across the higher terrain,
especially over the northeast Blue Mountains and Cascades.
However, even a lightning strike or two will be possible across
the basin as well.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler this afternoon due to much
colder 850 mb temperatures, especially across the northeastern
half of the region (between 4 to 9 degrees Celsius cooler across
this area compared to yesterday afternoon). More cloud cover will
help to keep temperatures cooler today compared to yesterday as
well. Winds will be a little breezy this afternoon as good mixing
bring down slightly stronger winds aloft with gusts up to 20 to 25
mph in places. /SVH

Friday through Sunday night...On Friday a large closed low will move
into California with a second low over British Columbia and
Alberta. The Inland Northwest will be in between these two
features. However cold temperatures aloft with 500mb values of
-28C will promote an unstable atmosphere during peak heating with
showers likely developing over the mountains with a few valley
showers also possible. There is also chance for morning showers
over the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie with a weak wave moving
up out of NE Oregon. A stray lightning strike is also possible
but with marginal convective parameters will leave out of
forecast. On Saturday and Sunday the closed low to the north
becomes an open wave and slowly drops southeast into the area.
The ECMWF has been the most consistent with this idea with the GFS
and NAM trending towards the ECMWF with showers lingering
especially over the mountains both Saturday and Sunday. Thus
precipitation chances were increased on Sunday especially over the
Idaho Panhandle.

Monday through Wednesday...The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models are in
good agreement of a transition to a zonal flow pattern on Monday
with several systems expected to move through the Inland Northwest
next week. The first one arrives on Monday but is not particularly
strong with models generating around a tenth of an inch qpf
valleys and a quarter inch mountains with snow levels 5000-6000
feet. A stronger system arrives Wednesday bringing more unsettled
conditions. Yet another system is possible late next week.
Precipitation chances were increased Monday and Wednesday with the
expected unsettled weather.

Near normal temperatures are expected through the extended period
although cloud cover and precipitation will likely play a role for
high temperatures and may result in below normal readings at times. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A disturbance moving up from the south will bring
showers across eastern TAF sites Wednesday night, primarily
before 09-11Z. With the loss of daytime heating, the threat of
thunder has diminished, although a stray storm cannot be ruled
out. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, except for local MVFR
conditions in heavier showers. Western TAFS will find mainly an
isolated shower threat. The shower threat wanes around TAF sites
into the morning. Another weak wave passes Thursday afternoon,
once again bringing a threat of showers. These are expected to be
more isolated to widely scattered in nature, before waning after
sunset. Expect some breezy conditions in the afternoon/early
evening hours Thursday. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  37  55  36  56  37 /  40  20  20  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  54  36  54  35  56  37 /  40  20  20  10  30  20
Pullman        52  34  55  34  54  36 /  50  40  20  10  20  10
Lewiston       58  38  59  39  59  40 /  40  40  20  10  10  10
Colville       58  38  58  36  62  38 /  50  20  20  10  40  40
Sandpoint      54  36  53  34  55  34 /  60  30  30  10  40  40
Kellogg        51  35  51  33  54  35 /  60  30  40  10  40  20
Moses Lake     61  36  62  36  62  38 /  20  20  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      60  38  60  39  62  41 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           61  38  60  35  62  38 /  20  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 929 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

.UPDATE...

00Z NAM SHOWS WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN
DOWNWARD MOTION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

SOME 850 MB CONVERGENCE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH 40 KNOT 850 MB WIND
MAX OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS WEAKENS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY
12Z. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE. CAP WEAKENS
BUT BY THIS TIME THE LIFT WEAKENS AND MOISTURE IS MAINLY BELOW THE
CAP. AS A RESULT WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 5 THSD FT. INVERSION LOWERS
AND EXPECT CIGS TO ALSO LOWER. SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012/

..SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

LEADING VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL CLEAR SOUTHEAST WI BY 00Z. ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HIT THE GROUND THAT WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX...AS
THEY QUICKLY DRIED UP AS THEY ENCOUNTERED VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 500MB RIDGE OVERHEAD.

MODELS SHOW WEAK RIPPLES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SO KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVES. SOME
SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BRUSH SOUTHEAST WI...SO KEPT THE HIGHER
CHANCE IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...VERY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
TONIGHT SO REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WI AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL PULL DEEPER LOW LEVEL RH INTO
THE AREA...RESULTING IN THICKENING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

THEN WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT WAVE OF VORTICITY WITH A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT LATER SATURDAY
MORNING WITH DAYTIME MIXING...ALLOWING FOR HEATING TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. 925MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 16C BY 00Z
SUN...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE. VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA WILL
HEAD NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...REACHING NORTHERN WISCONSIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY EVENING...ON THE NOSE OF A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
45 TO 55KTS. THE MOISTURE FLUX IS IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD RESULT IN
A RAPID OUTBREAK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT IS PRETTY
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF MADISON...DUE TO THE LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES...ELEVATED OR OTHERWISE. THE BEST I
CAN GET IS ABOUT 750J/KG. BUT...GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 50-60KTS CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. THE
TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LIMITED BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A SNEAKY
WEAK TORNADO SPIN-UP IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED.

ONCE WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE NOSE OF THE JET MOVES UP
TO THE NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE MAIN LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY...COUPLED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND POTENTIAL RRQ OF THE UPPER JET...WE SHOULD SEE MORE
STORMS DEVELOP. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 17 TO 18C SO WE SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. IT COULD GO
HIGHER IF WE GET ANY SUNSHINE. RIGHT NOW CAPE VALUES ARE LIMITED
TO ABOUT 1200J/KG...BUT THIS COULD INCREASE IF WE SEE MORE
HEATING. SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY HIGH...IN THE 60 TO 80KT RANGE.
THIS IS PROBABLY OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
WEEKEND...SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGING STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AS WELL AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. NO THUNDER EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN AND SHOULD BRING QUIET AND COOL
WEATHER THIS PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME FROST IN SPOTS AT NIGHT...BUT
WILL DETAIL THAT LATER...AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT POINT IN TIME.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

A FAST ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BRING A WAVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THAT MAY PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE SURFACE AS THEY CROSS SOUTHEAST WI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH BY 00Z...EXPECT ONLY
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND EVEN
THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER DEEPER RH INTO SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT...WITH
LIKELY MVFR CIGS. MOS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING MVFR VSBY WITH IFR
CIGS EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN THAT SCENARIO SO DID
NOT MENTION IN TAFS. VFR CIGS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN TODAY AT MSN AND GUSTIER SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT MKE.

MARINE...LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER LAKE MI PREVENTED THE STRONGER
WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHWEST TOWARD SATURDAY
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTIER ALONG THE LAKESHORE SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
APPROACH GALE CRITERIA ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HELD OFF ON GALE WATCH AT
THIS TIME SINCE IT IS MARGINAL AND THERE WILL BE LESS MIXING OVER
THE LAKE AND THEREFORE WEAKER WINDS.

SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SAT EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS WITH
THE SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 706 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
337 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT THRU SUN
NIGHT AND ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THEM...FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN MON
NIGHT.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SD...WITH A STRONG
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO SPINNING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SD. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS OVER MN AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
IA/SOUTHERN MN...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU 00Z
THIS EVENING. A TIGHT CIRCULATION OF SHRA/TSRA WITH THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING THRU EASTERN SD/FAR SOUTHWEST MN. FURTHER EAST
A BAND OF -RA/-SHRA WAS MOVING THRU WI/NORTHERN IL...DISSIPATING AS
THE LIFT WAS WEAKENING FURTHER FROM THE SD SHORTWAVE/TROUGH.

NO BIG ERRORS NOTED WITH 13.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS
REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...WITH A FASTER
EJECTION OF THE SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THRU THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND WEST/NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW...WITH CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FCST FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 13.12Z
SHOWED MODEL RUNS OF 11.12Z AND 12.12Z VERIFIED REASONABLY WELL
ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. MOST EARLIER RUNS WERE ON THE WEAK SIDE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEB THIS MORNING AND WITH THE ENERGY
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED
FASTER WITH THE TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT MOVES THRU THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT/SAT AND FOR MORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE FASTER TREND CONTINUES SAT NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUN
MORNING...WITH MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE VS. A MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEB AT
12Z SUN. STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AT 12Z SUN BUT THIS NOT UNEXPECTED WITH THE MAIN ENERGY OFF
THE CA COAST THIS MORNING. BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS BY MON/MON NIGHT
FOR THE MORE OPEN WAVE TROUGH TO QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
MON THEN MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA MON NIGHT. CHECK OF OBS VS.
MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED ALL MODELS QUITE GOOD WITH THE SFC MASS
FIELDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. PER WV IMAGERY...ALL LOOKED GOOD WITH
THE SHORTWAVE FEATURES OVER NOAM/EASTERN PAC. A COMPROMISE OF THE
MODELS LOOKED BEST WITH THE 12-18Z PRECIP OVER THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. WITH NO CLEAR MODEL FAVORITE AND ALL MODELS DISPLAYING THE
SAME BASIC TREND...FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE
SHIFT/TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS AS THE STRONG TROUGH LIFTS THRU
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...EASTERN SD LOW/SHORTWAVE LIFT INTO FAR NORTH MN
TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY OR AROUND
00Z. HGTS RISE AND WEAK SFC-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
AREA THRU TONIGHT AND FOR SAT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM TODAY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING/LIFT INDICATED FOR
TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MN. LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES FOR TONIGHT TO 20 PERCENT. MORE SFC-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER THE AREA SAT AND THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH ENERGY NOW LOOKING
TO COME OUT AS ONE PIECE DELAYS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE INTO THE AREA ON SAT. BULK OF THE CAPE AND THE WARM
FRONT EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THRU
SAT. HAVE REMOVED ALL RAIN CHANCES FROM SAT MORNING AND DELAYED SAT
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO MAINLY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90 AS THE MOISTURE/LIFT START TO ARRIVE LATE. STRONGEST
OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. 500-1000 J/KG OF MU
CAPE BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA AS WELL. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1 TO
1.5 INCH RANGE...SOME 200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH STRONG 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR INDICATED...TSRA SAT NIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND A FEW MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS. WITH SOILS ACROSS THE AREA ON THE DRY SIDE...ANY FLASH
FLOODING THREAT APPEARS QUITE MINIMAL. RAISED SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SAT
NIGHT TO 90 PERCENT.

LOW/WARM FRONT NOW SLATED TO LIFT WEST/NORTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT
WITH THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR ON FOR SUN. SCT SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTH PART OF THE FCST AREA EARLY SUN
MORNING...LIFTING NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT THRU THE MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR MU CAPE OF 1K-2K J/KG BY MID-DAY SUN. THIS WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IN THE 50-70KT RANGE. MODELS NOW SWEEP A COLD FRONT/DRY
LINE ACROSS THE AREA SUN. THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES
IMPACT THE FCST. GFS/NAM FASTER WITH THIS THAN NON-NCEP MODELS. THE
LATER THIS OCCURS ON SUN THE GREATER THE THREAT THAT ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD ALL BE THREATS FROM STORMS ON SUN. LEFT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN
MOSTLY IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH/EAST. THE MORE
OPEN WAVE TROUGH PASSES MORE QUICKLY SUN NIGHT/MON. DEFORMATION BAND
MOISTURE/LIFT WEST/NORTH OF THE LOW WRAPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA SUN NIGHT WITH -SHRA REMAINING LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FCST AREA CLOSER TO THE LOW. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSRA SUN EVENING TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS BUT SFC-700MB
COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING IN/AROUND THE LOW AND DRYING LOOK TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY CAPE OVER THE AREA AND THE FORCING/LIFT WILL BE
WEAKER BEHIND THE LOW. LINGERING DEFORMATION BAND MOISTURE/LIFT
ROTATES SOUTH/EAST ACROSS THE AREA MON...WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS IT
DOES. REDUCED -RA CHANCES MON TO 20-40 PERCENT. WITH THE LOW PASSING
FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER FORCING/LIFT BY MON...APPEARS ANY
SNOWFLAKES ON MON WOULD BE IN THE MORNING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29.

SUBSIDENCE/DRYING/HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR MON NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS/LIGHT WINDS. THREAT LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE
MORNING TURNS BACK TO FROST/FREEZING TEMPS AS 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE -2C TO +4C RANGE AT 12Z TUE. IF SKIES CLEAR...LOWS MON
NIGHT AGAIN LOOK TO FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL WI PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT
THRU MON. DID LEAN TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR MON NIGHT WITH
TREND TOWARD MORE DRYING/CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
337 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

13.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TREND FASTER TUE WITH THE LOW/TROUGH FROM
SUN/MON MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. TREND IS THEN TOWARD A RATHER
ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR WED THRU FRI.
GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE FEATURES TO MOVE THRU
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN DAYS 5-7. ONE OF THESE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI...KEEPING
THE PATTERN ACTIVE/UNSETTLED. 13.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WAVE TO MOVE THRU THE FLOW ON WED. LIKE
PMDEPD...FAVORED THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH
OVERALL LONG-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. PRESENT
TIMING FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS DRIFTS COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE. NEXT MODERATELY STRONG SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA CENTERED ON WED.
WITH PROGRESSIVE FEATURES IN THE ZONAL FLOW...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
RETURNS FOR WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. THE NEXT TROUGH/SFC LOW QUICKLY
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THU WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE/THERMO-DYNAMIC PROGGED TO REACH THE AREA ALREADY
THU AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THU NIGHT/FRI. AGAIN...GEM/UKMET DO OFFER SLOWER
SOLUTIONS SO TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS IN THE TUE-FRI PERIOD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUE TO BE DRY BUT 20-40
PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MUCH OF THE WED-FRI PERIOD LOOKING
REASONABLE. FAVORED THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS TUE-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
634 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

PERSISTENT AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HAD ADVECTED LOW STRATUS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO THE TAF SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ALREADY AT
KRST AND EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN CEILINGS AT KLSE...DROPPING
THROUGH THE MVFR CATEGORY AND INTO IFR CATEGORY AROUND 04Z.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS ARRIVES.
14.18Z NAM QUICKEST WITH IT ARRIVING IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME...WHILE THE 14.21 RUC IS SLOWEST BRINGING IT INTO THE FAT
SITES AROUND 15Z-18Z. DID TAKE A COMPROMISE PER THE PREVIOUS SET
OF FORECAST. ONCE THIS DRIER AIR ARRIVES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS
POINT...ANY CONVECTION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
706 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...RABERDING







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 634 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
337 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT THRU SUN
NIGHT AND ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THEM...FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN MON
NIGHT.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SD...WITH A STRONG
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO SPINNING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SD. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS OVER MN AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
IA/SOUTHERN MN...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU 00Z
THIS EVENING. A TIGHT CIRCULATION OF SHRA/TSRA WITH THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING THRU EASTERN SD/FAR SOUTHWEST MN. FURTHER EAST
A BAND OF -RA/-SHRA WAS MOVING THRU WI/NORTHERN IL...DISSIPATING AS
THE LIFT WAS WEAKENING FURTHER FROM THE SD SHORTWAVE/TROUGH.

NO BIG ERRORS NOTED WITH 13.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS
REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...WITH A FASTER
EJECTION OF THE SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THRU THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND WEST/NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW...WITH CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FCST FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 13.12Z
SHOWED MODEL RUNS OF 11.12Z AND 12.12Z VERIFIED REASONABLY WELL
ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. MOST EARLIER RUNS WERE ON THE WEAK SIDE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEB THIS MORNING AND WITH THE ENERGY
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED
FASTER WITH THE TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT MOVES THRU THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT/SAT AND FOR MORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE FASTER TREND CONTINUES SAT NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUN
MORNING...WITH MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE VS. A MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEB AT
12Z SUN. STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AT 12Z SUN BUT THIS NOT UNEXPECTED WITH THE MAIN ENERGY OFF
THE CA COAST THIS MORNING. BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS BY MON/MON NIGHT
FOR THE MORE OPEN WAVE TROUGH TO QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
MON THEN MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA MON NIGHT. CHECK OF OBS VS.
MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED ALL MODELS QUITE GOOD WITH THE SFC MASS
FIELDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. PER WV IMAGERY...ALL LOOKED GOOD WITH
THE SHORTWAVE FEATURES OVER NOAM/EASTERN PAC. A COMPROMISE OF THE
MODELS LOOKED BEST WITH THE 12-18Z PRECIP OVER THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. WITH NO CLEAR MODEL FAVORITE AND ALL MODELS DISPLAYING THE
SAME BASIC TREND...FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE
SHIFT/TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS AS THE STRONG TROUGH LIFTS THRU
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...EASTERN SD LOW/SHORTWAVE LIFT INTO FAR NORTH MN
TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY OR AROUND
00Z. HGTS RISE AND WEAK SFC-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
AREA THRU TONIGHT AND FOR SAT. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM TODAY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING/LIFT INDICATED FOR
TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MN. LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES FOR TONIGHT TO 20 PERCENT. MORE SFC-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER THE AREA SAT AND THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH ENERGY NOW LOOKING
TO COME OUT AS ONE PIECE DELAYS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE INTO THE AREA ON SAT. BULK OF THE CAPE AND THE WARM
FRONT EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THRU
SAT. HAVE REMOVED ALL RAIN CHANCES FROM SAT MORNING AND DELAYED SAT
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO MAINLY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90 AS THE MOISTURE/LIFT START TO ARRIVE LATE. STRONGEST
OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. 500-1000 J/KG OF MU
CAPE BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA AS WELL. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1 TO
1.5 INCH RANGE...SOME 200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH STRONG 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR INDICATED...TSRA SAT NIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND A FEW MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS. WITH SOILS ACROSS THE AREA ON THE DRY SIDE...ANY FLASH
FLOODING THREAT APPEARS QUITE MINIMAL. RAISED SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SAT
NIGHT TO 90 PERCENT.

LOW/WARM FRONT NOW SLATED TO LIFT WEST/NORTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT
WITH THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR ON FOR SUN. SCT SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTH PART OF THE FCST AREA EARLY SUN
MORNING...LIFTING NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT THRU THE MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR MU CAPE OF 1K-2K J/KG BY MID-DAY SUN. THIS WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IN THE 50-70KT RANGE. MODELS NOW SWEEP A COLD FRONT/DRY
LINE ACROSS THE AREA SUN. THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES
IMPACT THE FCST. GFS/NAM FASTER WITH THIS THAN NON-NCEP MODELS. THE
LATER THIS OCCURS ON SUN THE GREATER THE THREAT THAT ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD ALL BE THREATS FROM STORMS ON SUN. LEFT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN
MOSTLY IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH/EAST. THE MORE
OPEN WAVE TROUGH PASSES MORE QUICKLY SUN NIGHT/MON. DEFORMATION BAND
MOISTURE/LIFT WEST/NORTH OF THE LOW WRAPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA SUN NIGHT WITH -SHRA REMAINING LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FCST AREA CLOSER TO THE LOW. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSRA SUN EVENING TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS BUT SFC-700MB
COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING IN/AROUND THE LOW AND DRYING LOOK TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY CAPE OVER THE AREA AND THE FORCING/LIFT WILL BE
WEAKER BEHIND THE LOW. LINGERING DEFORMATION BAND MOISTURE/LIFT
ROTATES SOUTH/EAST ACROSS THE AREA MON...WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS IT
DOES. REDUCED -RA CHANCES MON TO 20-40 PERCENT. WITH THE LOW PASSING
FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER FORCING/LIFT BY MON...APPEARS ANY
SNOWFLAKES ON MON WOULD BE IN THE MORNING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29.

SUBSIDENCE/DRYING/HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR MON NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS/LIGHT WINDS. THREAT LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE
MORNING TURNS BACK TO FROST/FREEZING TEMPS AS 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE -2C TO +4C RANGE AT 12Z TUE. IF SKIES CLEAR...LOWS MON
NIGHT AGAIN LOOK TO FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL WI PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT
THRU MON. DID LEAN TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR MON NIGHT WITH
TREND TOWARD MORE DRYING/CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
337 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

13.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TREND FASTER TUE WITH THE LOW/TROUGH FROM
SUN/MON MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. TREND IS THEN TOWARD A RATHER
ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR WED THRU FRI.
GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE FEATURES TO MOVE THRU
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN DAYS 5-7. ONE OF THESE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WED AND ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI...KEEPING
THE PATTERN ACTIVE/UNSETTLED. 13.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WAVE TO MOVE THRU THE FLOW ON WED. LIKE
PMDEPD...FAVORED THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH
OVERALL LONG-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. PRESENT
TIMING FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS DRIFTS COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE. NEXT MODERATELY STRONG SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA CENTERED ON WED.
WITH PROGRESSIVE FEATURES IN THE ZONAL FLOW...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
RETURNS FOR WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. THE NEXT TROUGH/SFC LOW QUICKLY
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THU WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE/THERMO-DYNAMIC PROGGED TO REACH THE AREA ALREADY
THU AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THU NIGHT/FRI. AGAIN...GEM/UKMET DO OFFER SLOWER
SOLUTIONS SO TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS IN THE TUE-FRI PERIOD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUE TO BE DRY BUT 20-40
PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MUCH OF THE WED-FRI PERIOD LOOKING
REASONABLE. FAVORED THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS TUE-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
634 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

PERSISTENT AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HAD ADVECTED LOW STRATUS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO THE TAF SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ALREADY AT
KRST AND EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN CEILINGS AT KLSE...DROPPING
THROUGH THE MVFR CATEGORY AND INTO IFR CATEGORY AROUND 04Z.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS ARRIVES.
14.18Z NAM QUICKEST WITH IT ARRIVING IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME...WHILE THE 14.21 RUC IS SLOWEST BRINGING IT INTO THE FAT
SITES AROUND 15Z-18Z. DID TAKE A COMPROMISE PER THE PREVIOUS SET
OF FORECAST. ONCE THIS DRIER AIR ARRIVES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS
POINT...ANY CONVECTION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
337 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...RABERDING







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 1135 AM MDT THU APR 12 2012

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
PESKY FOG AT KSNY AND LOW STRATUS AT KAIA AND KBFF WILL SLOWLY
ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVES INTO THE AREA. SO EXPECT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
VFR AT THESE SITES BY AROUND 20Z. TSTORMS EXPECTED AT KSNY 22Z-03Z
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THRU. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
AT KRWL WHERE SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. HAHN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM MDT THU APR 12 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN CO AND SOUTHERN WY AT THIS HOUR.  THE FORCING FROM
THIS SHORTWAVE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NE PANHANDLE.  THE GFS SHOWS A NARROW
TONGUE OF SMALL SFC INSTABILITY OVER THE PANHANDLE...WITH LI VALUES
BETWEEN 0 AND -2C...HOWEVER THE DECREASING TREND OF REFLECTIVITY
OVER THE LAST HOUR SUGGESTS THAT ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE REALLY
LIMITED.  SFC ANALYSES SHOW THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT JUST TO
THE WEST OF CHEYENNE...WITH DRIER AIR AND SW WINDS TO THE WEST AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE.  THE FRONT WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING...REACHING THE NE
PANHANDLE BY LATE MORNING AND SCOURING OUT ANY REMAINING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.  LLVL GRADIENTS INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH 700MB WINDS AROUND 40-50 KTS BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z OVER
MAINLY CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES.  THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIND
GUSTS AT ARLINGTON TO APPROACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR A SHORT
TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WARNING AT THIS
TIME.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND
FROPA.  ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN
AND EVENING.  DUE TO THE LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH 500MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C BY AFTN AND LI VALUES 0 TO -1C...INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER MOST AREAS.

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND NO DISCERNIBLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW.  TEMPS WILL BE
COOL WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -2C.  WITH WEAK LLVL GRADIENTS OVER THE
AREA WINDS WILL BE WEAK WESTERLY.  THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL (700-500
MB) MOISTURE IN THE FLOW TO INCLUDE A CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVER AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM DURING THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MUCH COOLER AND WET WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS EVENT COULD HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON TRAVEL...OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND LIVESTOCK DURING THAT TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY.  THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE 00Z MODELS...OTHER THAN THE NAM...HAVE
BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND THE
QPF. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AND THEN WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH 00Z MONDAY BEFORE
ACCELERATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES COOL AND THE 1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESS
VALUES LOWER.  THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WEST PART
OF THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.  ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE FORCING WILL BE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO A FOOT OVER AND NEAR
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BETWEEN 6
AND 14 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.  ALONG WITH THE SNOW WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD RESULT AT TIMES
OVER THAT AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A LESS AMPLIFIED
WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MID WEEK.  SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THAT TIME.  FOR THE LATER PARTS OF THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
THREAT TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  IN ADDITION...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35
MPH.  A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SAT AFTN THROUGH SUN
EVENING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW...ENDING
ALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
LONG TERM...WEILAND





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 430 AM MDT THU APR 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN CO AND SOUTHERN WY AT THIS HOUR.  THE FORCING FROM
THIS SHORTWAVE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NE PANHANDLE.  THE GFS SHOWS A NARROW
TONGUE OF SMALL SFC INSTABILITY OVER THE PANHANDLE...WITH LI VALUES
BETWEEN 0 AND -2C...HOWEVER THE DECREASING TREND OF REFLECTIVITY
OVER THE LAST HOUR SUGGESTS THAT ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE REALLY
LIMITED.  SFC ANALYSES SHOW THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT JUST TO
THE WEST OF CHEYENNE...WITH DRIER AIR AND SW WINDS TO THE WEST AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE.  THE FRONT WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING...REACHING THE NE
PANHANDLE BY LATE MORNING AND SCOURING OUT ANY REMAINING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.  LLVL GRADIENTS INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH 700MB WINDS AROUND 40-50 KTS BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z OVER
MAINLY CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES.  THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIND
GUSTS AT ARLINGTON TO APPROACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR A SHORT
TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WARNING AT THIS
TIME.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND
FROPA.  ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN
AND EVENING.  DUE TO THE LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH 500MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C BY AFTN AND LI VALUES 0 TO -1C...INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER MOST AREAS.

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND NO DISCERNIBLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW.  TEMPS WILL BE
COOL WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -2C.  WITH WEAK LLVL GRADIENTS OVER THE
AREA WINDS WILL BE WEAK WESTERLY.  THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL (700-500
MB) MOISTURE IN THE FLOW TO INCLUDE A CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVER AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM DURING THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MUCH COOLER AND WET WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS EVENT COULD HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON TRAVEL...OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND LIVESTOCK DURING THAT TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY.  THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE 00Z MODELS...OTHER THAN THE NAM...HAVE
BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND THE
QPF. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AND THEN WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH 00Z MONDAY BEFORE
ACCELERATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES COOL AND THE 1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESS
VALUES LOWER.  THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WEST PART
OF THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.  ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE FORCING WILL BE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO A FOOT OVER AND NEAR
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BETWEEN 6
AND 14 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.  ALONG WITH THE SNOW WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD RESULT AT TIMES
OVER THAT AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A LESS AMPLIFIED
WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO MID WEEK.  SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THAT TIME.  FOR THE LATER PARTS OF THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE TAF SITES WILL SEE LOW END MVFR CIGS
DUE TO THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR KLAR AND KCYS SO
INCLUDED THEM IN THE TAF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A COLD FRONT WITH
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE FROM WEST-TO-EAST OVER THE SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL PASS OVER KCYS AROUND 09Z AND OVER THE
NE SITES BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THE DRIER AIR WILL EFFECTIVELY END
THIS LOW CLOUD EVENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KTS AND SOME GUSTS
TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
THREAT TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  IN ADDITION...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35
MPH.  A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SAT AFTN THROUGH SUN
EVENING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW...ENDING
ALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

FINCH/WEILAND










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

 339 AM MDT SAT APR 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM
SE TO NW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84 BETWEEN WEATHERBY AND GLENNS
FERRY AS OF 3 AM ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND U.S. 95
BETWEEN MARSING AND MCDERMITT THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS THROUGH THE DESERT SW U.S. THE 00Z GFS HINTED
AT THIS PRECIPITATION AREA BUT THE RUC HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL TO
CAPTURE THE SHOWERS. NOW THE 6Z NAM IS CATCHING ON TOO. AN UPPER
IMPULSE AS NOTED IN THE 1.5 PV FIELD OVER SE WA TO SW OREGON WILL
SPREAD AN AREA OF LIFT ACROSS OREGON TODAY AND CENTRAL IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS...AND ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING AND SW IDAHO BY AROUND 20Z
WILL SPREAD GUSTY WEST TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR FLOW ALIGNS WITH TERRAIN BETWEEN THE BENNETT HILLS AND
OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUST TO 45 MPH
ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO
THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM SOUTH OF BOISE AROUND
GLENNS FERRY TO AROUND JACKPOT. UPPER IMPULSE IN THE PV FIELD WILL
EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO BY 6Z WITH A MILD RIDGE AND LESS WIND
EXPECTED ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A FAST ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE NORTH. IN
THIS REGIME...WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EVERY DAY OR
TWO. NORMALLY CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF EACH WAVE IS LOW IN THIS
FAST FLOW...HOWEVER CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS UNUSUALLY GOOD.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED FORECAST MORE DETERMINISTIC IN THE
MID-RANGE...AND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY IN THE FAR EXTENDED/NEXT WEEKEND.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION....PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS. SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWEST
UP TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHEAST
UP TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST UP TO 35 KTS AFTER NOON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY....VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014-015-030.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ029.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....RD
AVIATION.....BB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 247 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 247 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 07Z SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS TRACKING E/NE ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER 00Z MODEL DATA IS
NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS VERY WELL AT ALL.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHIFT THE PRECIP NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BY 12Z...HOWEVER LATEST RADAR LOOPS ARE NOT SUPPORTING
THIS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THINK A CONTINUED E/NE
TRAJECTORY IS MORE PROBABLE. AS A RESULT...HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN KILX CWA TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR. 04Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THINGS AND SUGGESTS THE NORTH MAY REMAIN LARGELY DRY AT LEAST
THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF
I-74 THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH THINK MODELS ARE TRYING TO PUSH BOUNDARY
NORTH TOO QUICKLY. END RESULT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...TAPERING DOWN
TO SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...TEMPS WILL BE HELD A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM COLORADO THIS
EVENING TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
IS LOST.

WINDY AND VERY WARM WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...AS MIXING COULD POTENTIALLY BRING
EVEN HIGHER GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUANCE FOR NOW...PENDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WAA...HIGH TEMPS WILL
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL SLIDE BY TO THE N/NW AND GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE S/SW...THINK POTENT MID/LOW-LEVEL
JETS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES INCREASING TO 400 TO 500 BY 00Z MON...WITH MOST OF
THIS INCREASE DUE TO SPEED SHEAR. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAST-MOVING AND CAPABLE OF BRINGING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS LINE OF
STORMS INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AFTER 21Z...THEN INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER 06Z.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS WILL EXIT CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER ON MONDAY. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
SUPPORT W/NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH...WHILE HIGH TEMPS DROP
BACK INTO THE 60S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALLOWING A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEMS TO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. A RATHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BEST
LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER WAVE APPROACHING
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

ALL SITES WILL BE VFR TO START THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN MVFR
CIGS AND VIS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE PCPN AND LIGHT FOG BEGINS TO
AFFECT ALL SITES AFTER SUNRISE AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
IMPROVING CIGS AND VIS WILL NOT BE SEEN UNTIL AFTER THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD PAST ALL TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AN AREA OF PCPN IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA...BUT APPEARS
IT COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT AND INTERACTS
WITH THE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN MO. ONCE THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL
PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL START EVERYONE WITH
VCSH AFTER A COUPLE OF HOURS OF DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...SPI...DEC...CMI WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF PCPN/SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE PCPN FROM
NORTHER MO MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN AT SPI AROUND 11Z...DEC 12Z AND
CMI 13Z. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PCPN SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF
PIA/BMI. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH DURING THE DAY...ADDITIONAL
RWS/TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT AND AFFECT ALL SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL END AT PIS/DEC/CMI FIRST AROUND
01Z...FOLLOWED BY PIA/BMI AROUND 03Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST THEN
SOUTHERLY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

AUTEN
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 429 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST AT THE MOMENT FROM
ILLINOIS BACK TO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. AT THE MOMENT THE MODEL THAT
IS REFLECTING THE CURRENT RADAR BEST IS THE HRRR. LEANED TOWARD ITS
SOLUTION TODAY IN REGARDS TO POPS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...PROVIDING LIFT
ALONG AND WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER IMPULSES WILL PROVIDE
SUPPORT TO THE LIFT ALREADY BEING GENERATED BY THE WARM FRONT.

THE LIFT PLUS MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. MOS POPS AND THE HRRR FORECAST AGREE WITH THIS...SO FEEL NO
NEED TO CUT MOS POPS. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
AREA.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SPC FORECAST AGREE THAT SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD NOT OCCUR TODAY.

WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
FRONT...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED BACK HIGHS TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GENERALLY WENT BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ON ITS WAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
KEPT LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH
CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WENT LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING RAIN. WENT ABOVE MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

REMOVED ALL POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FORCING IN THE
AREA. WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION...WENT ABOVE MOS FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE WINDY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
PRODUCE GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DECENT FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT FOR LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...AND BASED
ON EXPECTED TIMING WENT LIKELY POPS EXTREME EAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXTREME WEST DURING THE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE
TAKEN MOST OF THE RAIN WITH IT AS IT HEADS EAST OF THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY LATE DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. LOW PRESSURE SET TO
TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
LIMIT MOISTURE AND FORCING ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...FOCUSING THE
BETTER LIFT FURTHER NORTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ISOLATED PRECIP THAT CAN MIGRATE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
BOUNDARY.

BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY EARLY FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS
WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAINTAINED HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 140900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL EXPAND EAST AND
IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER 10-11Z. HRRR HAS NICE HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND IS STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERAL WAVES OF
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL
APPEARS MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LATEST RADAR MOSAIC IS QUIET...EARLIER SHOWERS WERE QUICKLY ABSORBED
BY DRY ATMOSPHERE.  HOWEVER...THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL ENTER TAF
SITES AFTER SAT 09Z AND WILL BE HEAVIER THAN THE PREVIOUS ROUND.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO BETTER LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR AFTER THAT AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN AT MVFR INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOW CEILINGS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AT THE END OF TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 8 TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...TDUD









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST AT THE MOMENT FROM
ILLINOIS BACK TO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. AT THE MOMENT THE MODEL THAT
IS REFLECTING THE CURRENT RADAR BEST IS THE HRRR. LEANED TOWARD ITS
SOLUTION TODAY IN REGARDS TO POPS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...PROVIDING LIFT
ALONG AND WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER IMPULSES WILL PROVIDE
SUPPORT TO THE LIFT ALREADY BEING GENERATED BY THE WARM FRONT.

THE LIFT PLUS MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. MOS POPS AND THE HRRR FORECAST AGREE WITH THIS...SO FEEL NO
NEED TO CUT MOS POPS. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
AREA.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SPC FORECAST AGREE THAT SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD NOT OCCUR TODAY.

WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
FRONT...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED BACK HIGHS TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GENERALLY WENT BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ON ITS WAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
KEPT LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH
CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WENT LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING RAIN. WENT ABOVE MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

REMOVED ALL POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FORCING IN THE
AREA. WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION...WENT ABOVE MOS FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE WINDY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
PRODUCE GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DECENT FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT FOR LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...AND BASED
ON EXPECTED TIMING WENT LIKELY POPS EXTREME EAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXTREME WEST DURING THE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE
TAKEN MOST OF THE RAIN WITH IT AS IT HEADS EAST OF THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY LATE DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. LOW PRESSURE SET TO
TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
LIMIT MOISTURE AND FORCING ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...FOCUSING THE
BETTER LIFT FURTHER NORTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ISOLATED PRECIP THAT CAN MIGRATE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
BOUNDARY.

BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY EARLY FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS
WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAINTAINED HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 140600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

LATEST RADAR MOSAIC IS QUIET...EARLIER SHOWERS WERE QUICKLY ABSORBED
BY DRY ATMOSPHERE.  HOWEVER...THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL ENTER TAF
SITES AFTER SAT 09Z AND WILL BE HEAVIER THAN THE PREVIOUS ROUND.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO BETTER LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR AFTER THAT AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN AT MVFR INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOW CEILINGS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AT THE END OF TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 8 TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...TDUD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 106 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR COLORADO WILL PULL A WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION WILL CAUSE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE SATURDAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES ON TO THE NORTHEAST.  AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A TEMPORARY END
TO THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND A LESSER CHANCE TO
OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MODELS
BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE AGAIN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.  ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7 BRINGING US A RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER AND
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 952 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

DRY AIR HAS ERODED EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS TO NOTHING...AND DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE EAST ARE STILL IN THE 30S WITH UPPER 20 DEWPOINTS IN
THE NORTHEAST. THUS REMOVED POPS FROM THE EAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. FROM RUC AND HRRR STILL LOOKS LIKE DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ON ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IT JUST MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST. THUS DELAYED THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
UNTIL AFTER 9Z. ALSO DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT GIVEN THE LOW
DEWPOINTS AND RATE OF TEMPERATURE FALL ALREADY...BUT THINK THIS
WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A BIT WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AND RAIN. COULD STILL SEE A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND THUS LEFT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A VERY WET DAY SATURDAY AS STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE OCCURRING AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA.  PRECIP WILL BEGIN
DIMINISHING LATE SATURDAY AND GRADUALLY END OVER ALL BUT FAR
NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH INDICATES HIGH POPS
ALL BUT FAR EASTERN SECTIONS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
EAST MONDAY MORNING.  PRECIP MAY END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
SEVERAL OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEP IN 20 PERCENT POPS AND WILL
FOLLOW SUIT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 MPH SUNDAY AND 25 TO 30 MPH MONDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED WENT CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND
SATURDAY AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM IS
PRECIPITATION...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MORE LIKELY
CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT EXITING THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.
THEREFORE...WENT DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING DOWN FROM CANADA...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MUCH LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND AVERAGE.

ALL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...STUCK
WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE MAIN SYSTEM DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT IN
REGARDS TO TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...PER COLLABORATION...ADJUSTED ALLBLEND POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
FROM CATEGORICAL TO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LONG
TERM NATURE OF THE FORECAST AND ANY CHANGES IN TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 140600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

LATEST RADAR MOSAIC IS QUIET...EARLIER SHOWERS WERE QUICKLY ABSORBED
BY DRY ATMOSPHERE.  HOWEVER...THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL ENTER TAF
SITES AFTER SAT 09Z AND WILL BE HEAVIER THAN THE PREVIOUS ROUND.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO BETTER LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR AFTER THAT AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN AT MVFR INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOW CEILINGS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AT THE END OF TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 8 TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....AJH/JH
AVIATION...TDUD







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 527 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES. A WELL-DEFINED SHRTWV OVER CNTRL WI SUPPORTED A SCT
BAND OF SHOWERS FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO SRN WI. A VERY POTENT
UPSTREAM SHRTWV THAT WILL IMPACT WX OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT WAS MOVING THROUGH WRN AZ. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW
PREVAILED THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF A LOW OVER NW MN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

TODAY...ANY LINGERING SCT PCPN OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA WILL
MOVE OUT DURING THE MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT DURING
THE MORNING...PER UPSTREAM OBS OVER MN. WITH SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 70 INLAND WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE MID 30S. WITH RH VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND
GUSTY WSW WINDS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES SAT
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE TEMPS/WINDS WILL BE
HIGHEST.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE SW CONUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE PLAINS...SFC LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER
NEBRASKA AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MORE TO THE NW WITH THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND PROMINENT RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKES. A LARGE AREA OF PCPN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC WARM FRONT AS STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND
TOWARD A LATER ARRIVAL OF PCPN INTO UPPER MI WITH THE STRONGER LIFT
CONFINED NEAR THE 850 MB WARM FRONT. THE EFFECTS OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH MAY LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TO THE NORTH ARE OFTEN POORLY HANDLED BY THE MODELS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
UPPER MI AND STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV NEAR THE
CWA...PER 00Z/14 GFS AND ECMWF...EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND STRONG
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSHING PWAT
VALUES TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 11C...WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA.
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT TSRA. GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR WITH THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME REVOLVE ARND TRACK OF LO PRES
MOVING THRU THE UPR LKS/ACCOMPANYING PCPN SHIELD/POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PCPN.

SUN NGT...00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COMMON SCENARIO FOR THE
LO TRACK...WITH THE LO TENDING TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE CWA TO
NEAR ERY BY 12Z MON AS THE SHRTWV SHEARS OUT IN THE CONFLUENCE ZN ON
THE NW FLANK OF THE SE RDG. DRY SURGE AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE
LOOKS TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE E HALF OF THE CWA MUCH OF THE NGT
BEFORE BACKWASH MSTR UNDER THE SHRTWV ITSELF ROTATES W-E INTO THE W
HALF 06Z-12Z MON. DESPITE SOME RATHER DEEP MSTR...INCRSG DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS RELATED TO COLD AIR SURGING INTO
THE AREA AS WELL AS H3-2 CNVGC WL TEND TO WORK AGAINST A SGNFT PCPN
EVENT. ALSO SINCE THE LO IS WEAKENING...SOME MODELS HINT THE LLVL
FLOW WL BE ONLY WEAKLY CYC. AS FOR PCPN TYPE...THE NAM/GFS FCST
SDNGS HINT THE INITIAL COOLING WL BE FOCUSED IN THE LLVLS BLO A
LINGERING ELEVATED WARMER LYR. THIS COOLING PROFILE WOULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA/SLEET BEFORE THE PCPN CHGS TO ALL
SN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER COLD AIR. BUT EVEN IF THERE IS
SOME FZRA...LIMITED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE/WARM GROUND
FM A WARM SUN AFTN SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SGNFT ICING.

MON...AS THE SHRTWV/SFC LO CONTINUE TO SHEAR TO THE E AND WEAKEN...
LINGERING BACKWASH MSTR WL SLOWLY DECAY WITH COMPLETE EXIT OF
QVECTOR CNVGC BY THE AFTN. BUT A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA LATE SUN NGT/MON
MRNG...MAINLY IN AREAS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W AND NCNTRL
IMPACTED BY THE UPSLOPE NLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY IF THE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER DYNAMICS INDICATED BY THE 00Z NAM/UKMET MATERIALIZE. BY THE
AFTN...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER ESPECIALLY THE W AS
MORE ACYC FLOW/DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THAT AREA ON THE SRN FLANK OF
BLDG HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. OTRW...A GUSTY N WIND WITH H925 WINDS
ARND 30 KTS WL MAKE THE DAY FEEL ALMOST LIKE MID WINTER.

MON NGT...LARGER SCALE PCPN WL BE OVER WITH DEPARTURE OF DEEP MSTR/
DYNAMICS. BUT SOME LK CLDS WL PERSIST IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP
OVER MAINLY THE E HALF UNDER CYC NLY FLOW...WHERE LLVL THERMAL TROF
WL RESIDE WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -10C PER THE GFS. OPTED TO RETAIN
SOME SCHC POPS FOR -SHSN IN THIS AREA AS WELL WITH TEMPS ALMOST COLD
ENUF FOR LES. IN FACT...THE NAM SHOWS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -12C.
EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS CLOSE TO THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE MOCLR WITH PWAT
NEAR 0.10 INCH/LGT WINDS CLOSER TO THE RDG AXIS.

EXTENDED...EXPECT A DRY...SEASONABLY CHILLY PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE
NGT WITH HUDSON BAY HI PRES DOMINATING. NEXT DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY
TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WED...BUT 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW RADICALLY
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR THIS DISTURBANCE...SO RELIED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE FCST. AFT SOME DRYING ON THU WITH HI PRES
FOLLOWING...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING ANOTHER DEEPER
LO THRU THE UPR MIDWEST TO END THE WEEK. IF THIS MODEL IS CORRECT...
UPR MI WOULD SEE SOME SGNFT SN. BUT SINCE THE GFS IS DRY WITH THE
SHRTWV TRACKING MUCH FARTHER TO THE S...WENT WITH MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NE PER OBS/SATELLITE AND SHOULD RESULT
IN CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. ON SAT...DRYING OF THE COLUMN
UNDERNEATH UPPER JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE
MORNING HRS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SAT...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX UNDER A
MORE FAVORABLE WRLY FLOW THERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

SE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL BECOME SW TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. EXPECT A N TO NE GALE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF MAINLY
THE CENTRAL LK ON LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SHARPENING PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LO PRES AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO ONTARIO.
SHARP SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ENHANCE MIXING OF HIER WINDS TO THE SFC.
THE APPROACH OF THE HI PRES RIDGE WILL CAUSE DIMINISHING WINDS BY MON
NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU MID WEEK.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 132 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE WRN GULF TO THE WRN
LAKES. VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NNE THRU SW MN.
DESPITE VIGOROUS LOOK...SHRA AHEAD OF FEATURE HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS
THEY MOVE E INTO THE VERY DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE PER 12Z
KGRB SOUNDING. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION...ESPECIALLY WITH 850MB FLOW
VEERING MORE WRLY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEAKENING WITH TIME. SHRA
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AROUND VORT MAX IN SW MN MAY BRUSH THE NW FCST
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT POPS ARE WARRANTED. WHERE PCPN OCCURS...AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 0.1 INCHES.

SAT...ANY LINGERING SCT PCPN OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA WILL
MOVE OUT DURING THE MORNING AS DRY SLOT UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. DRYING COLUMN AND TREND TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING TO AT OR ABOVE 800MB SAT AFTN. PER FCST
SOUNDINGS...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 70F AWAY FROM
MARINE INFLUENCES. MIXING WILL HELP DWPTS FALL IN THE AFTN. IF
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...DWPTS WILL FALL
SEVERAL DEGREES MORE THAN REFLECTED IN THIS FCST ISSUANCE. AS IT IS
NOW...HAVE RH FALLING TO AROUND 30PCT. WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS...THERE
WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES SAT AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
W HALF WHERE TEMPS/WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME AS DEEP WESTERN TROUGHS HEADS EAST INTO THE LARGE RIDGE
OVR THE EASTERN CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN
AND TSRA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FCST TO DIG INTO FOUR CORNERS
AREA ON SATURDAY THEN LIFT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
BY LATER SUNDAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS SFC-H85 LOWS FORM OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHILE WARM FRONT BULGES AS FAR NORTH AS NEB AND IA BY
SATURDAY EVENING. POSITIVES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS
FACT THAT UPR MI IS WITHIN BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO JET
STREAK LIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO AND ANOTHER NOSING IN FM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. H85 THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO FCST TO ROLL ACROSS UPR LAKES.
WHILE THIS AND THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT MAY HELP TRIGGER AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS...EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTH AND EAST CWA CLOSER
TO MAXIMUM H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. PTYPE THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP STRICTLY RAIN AS H85 TEMPS ARE AOA +5C AND SFC DWPNTS REMAIN
AOA 40F. PROBABLY WILL BE A BREAK IN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING...BUT GIVEN PERSISTENT H85 THETA-E ADVECTION AND
THAT UPR JET FORCING STILL AROUND FCST WILL KEEP BROADBRUSHED CHANCE
POPS.

LATER SUNDAY...ATTN IS SQUARELY ON APPROACHING DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING INTO VCNTY OF NORTHEAST NEB INTO SOUTHWEST MN. SFC LOW FCST
TO PUSH INTO WCNTRL WI BY AFTN WHILE WARM FRONT ATTM IS FCST TO LIFT
INTO NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS SCNTRL UPR MI. TREND FM LATEST MODELS
IS FOR 12Z NAM/GFS TO BRING SFC LOW NEAR IMT BY 00Z. GIVEN SE WINDS
OFF LK MICHIGAN WOULD EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO STRUGGLE ANY FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AND/OR RE-DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AFTN AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL DRY LINE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN INTO IA. SW H85-H7 WINDS WILL ADVECT CONVECTION INTO CWA LATER
IN THE DAY WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS IF THE WARM
FRONT IS INDEED OVR NORTHERN WI/SOUTH CNTRL UPR MI GIVEN STEEP H7-H5
LAPSE RATES AOA 7C/KM JUST UPSTREAM. ALL EVENTS ARE DIFFERENT...BUT
SHOULD NOTE THAT THE UPR LEVEL AND MSLP/T/TD PATTERN LOOK SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO 10 APRIL 2011 WHEN A COUPLE CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS
IMPACTED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOME HAIL AFFECTED
PORTIONS OF CWA. SVR THREAT FOR CWA WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW FAR
NORTH WARM FRONT MAKES IT.

THIS IS DYNAMIC/SPRING PATTERN FOR SURE. 24-HOURS AGO IT LOOKED MAIN
IMPACT FM THE SYSTEM WOULD BE ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. NOW...THERE COULD BE SEVERE WX SUNDAY THEN POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH TRACK TO
SFC LOW WOULD DELAY THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
ONLY THE FAR WEST PORTION OF UPR MI. ALSO...THE FARTHER NORTH H85
BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTS IN FARTHER NORTH DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION
AREA...SO MODELS HAVE TRENDED LESS WITH PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF
LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WOULD POINT TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND MAYBE NORTH CENTRAL CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. FINAL VERDICT WITH SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM ARE
FAR FM IN...SO WILL ONLY TWEAK FCST GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW IN HWO. ALSO WILL PUT A
MENTION OF STORMS AND POSSIBLE HAIL FOR SUNDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...ONCE LOW BLOWS BY UPR LAKES...A DRY AND CHILLY
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND UPR GREAT LAKES. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH PRESS INTO UPR
GREAT LAKES IN INCREASINLY QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER COUPLE
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING MORE PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE UPR LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WELL THOUGH TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
CONSENESUS GIVES 20-30 POPS FOR NOW WHICH IS FINE. CORE OF COOLER
AIR LURKING JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR LATE IN THE WEEK COULD LEAD TO
RAIN/SNOW WITH THE SYSTEMS AS THEY MOVE THOUGH DEPENDING ON TIME OF
DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NE PER OBS/SATELLITE AND SHOULD RESULT
IN CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. ON SAT...DRYING OF THE COLUMN
UNDERNEATH UPPER JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE
MORNING HRS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SAT...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX UNDER A
MORE FAVORABLE WRLY FLOW THERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-25KT RANGE AT TIMES OVER MUCH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AS LOW PRES LIFTS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO
NRN ONTARIO. MIGHT SEE GUSTS AROUND 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBSERVING
PLATFORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES TO NRN ONTARIO SAT...WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SW...FAVORING THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR STRONGER
WINDS...AGAIN INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT TIMES. MIGHT SEE SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBSERVING PLATFORMS THRU ABOUT MID
AFTN DUE TO FAVORABLE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. BTWN SYSTEMS...THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 15KT SAT NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ENE
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT. NE WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE
LATE SUN ACROSS W AND CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LOW
MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES. GALES SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY MON AS WINDS BACK TO THE N BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
WINDS WILL DROP BACK UNDER 20KT TUE AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES...AND THE
LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 403 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER TONIGHT OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SUNDAY. INITIALLY HAVE
SOME STRATUS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OVER THE EASTERN CWA...IN THE
WAKE OF THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIFTED THROUGH THE AREA
LAST EVENING. HRRR HAS THIS LIFTING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TWIN
CITIES AREA AND OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...BURNING OFF THROUGH LATE
MORNING. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. WILL TRIM POPS BACK TO SMALL CHANCE SOUTHWEST AFTER 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE LIKELY MOVING IN DURING THE EVENING THOUGH.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
60S TO SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

STRONG WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ATTENDANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. POWERFUL JET
SEGMENT NOSES INTO THE AREA BY 06Z AND SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WORK
INTO SOUTHWEST MN DURING THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AS IT LIFTS NORTH...WITH SOME HAIL
A THREAT LATER TONIGHT. ELEVATED NATURE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT
TORNADO THREAT DURING THE NIGHT.

SYSTEM SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND ALL MODELS TRENDING SURFACE
LOW/OCCLUSION MOVING SLOWLY EAST INTO EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BORDER
THROUGH 18Z-21Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE MAIN ACTIVITY LIFT INTO
CENTRAL MN EARLY SUNDAY WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN
TOWARD 18Z SUN WITH THE GFS SHOWING MAIN TROUGH AND 130 KNOT JET
NOSING LEADING TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH HAIL AND WIND A THREAT. SREF
CONTINUES TO POINT TO DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER EAST...AND WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...WONT INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING YET IN THE
EASTERN CWA.


COLD AIR MOVES IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE AT
LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING INTO CENTRAL AREAS.

LONGER TERM INDICATING MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS FASTER/MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SHORT TERM CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...ARE LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. STRATUS HAD EXPANDED OVER CENTRAL MN INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH MID MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM KAQP TO NEAR KSPW(SPENCER IOWA). CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER WEST CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT...AND OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS LATE SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
PUNCHING NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAKOUT IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER IOWA/NEBRASKA
SATURDAY EVENING AND TREK NORTHEAST OVER MN TOMMORROW NIGHT. WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

MSP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ISOLD
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ARE
THE MAIN THREAT.

.SUN...IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS -SHRA/TSRA.
.MON...LINGERING IFR/MVFR EARLY...THEN VFR MON AFTN.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...VFR.



&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/JPR






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 426 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Today through Monday)...

A large trough continues to make landfall over the west coast with a
100+ knot jet streak helping dig it towards the Four Corners. It is
this primary trough that will be our focus for Saturday`s into
Sunday`s weather as it begins to lift through the Plains States.
Closer to home, a compact shortwave is noted lifting through the
northern Plains into Canada ahead of the main trough to the west,
with a weakly defined frontal boundary stretching southwest from it
in Minnesota through Iowa and eastern Kansas. Frontal boundary is
only notable this morning as it helps define the location of the warm
sector -where all the thunderstorm activity is- and the cold sector
-where the storms are not-. Ongoing thunderstorm activity in the warm
sector, currently stretched from central Oklahoma northeast through
Missouri into central Illinois, appears to owe its existence to the
moisture and warm air advection resulting from the persistent
southwest low level jet.

Previous days runs of the NMM-WRF and even the NSSL-WRF have done a
fine job with the handling of convection across our region of the
Plains, but recent 00Z from the 14th appeared to have some
initialization problems, and therefore don`t even have the current
activity this morning handled well. Conversely, the 01Z HRRR has
done a decent job of initializing overnight, and capturing trends
noted thus far this morning. NAM, and to a lesser extent the GFS,
both agree well with the HRRR through the periods that they overlap,
so a combination of these model runs have been used to guide today`s
forecast.

For today...thunderstorms will be ongoing this morning as the low
level jet continues to feed the needed ingredients for thunderstorms
across the region. Models have been hinting at, and latest radar
trends would agree, that the jet will become a little less focused
as we transit the sunrise hours, resulting in a broad warm air wing
of showers and thunderstorms developing from the current activity
across Oklahoma and Kansas. This activity would shift north through
the morning hours, likely residing in Nebraska and Iowa by this
afternoon. Have gone with likely POPs through the morning hours as a
result, while limiting POPs after noon to the chance category across
the northern half of the forecast region. Behind the warm wing of
convective activity a weak, but still present, EML should help cap
off new activity during the afternoon hours. So, what chance POPs
are in for the afternoon are more for lingering activity behind the
warm wing.

As we move towards tonight, attention for a significant round of
severe weather remains focused in areas just to the west, from
central Oklahoma north into the eastern half of Nebraska. As the
100+ knot jet streak rounding the base of the western CONUS trough
shifting through the Plains later tonight, it will bring a favorable
diffluent flow aloft to the dry-line across Kansas and Oklahoma this
evening, and while the instability from diurnal heating will be
fading some, there should be more than enough lingering to fuel all
manner of severe weather. Latest model runs continue to keep the
focus for the onset time of these KS-OK initiating storms after 00Z.
With growing confidence in the late onset of storms, have restricted
the likely POPs for the evening hours to areas west of Interstate-35,
after 03Z, as current initiation timing indicates that it might be
near, or after, midnight before storms shift into our region. All
modes of severe weather still look possible with tonight`s storms
given the abundant shear and helicity values, meaning large hail,
damaging winds, flooding rains, and isolated tornadoes will be
possible with any of tonight`s storms. However, the highest potential
for any of the severe weather looks to be roughly along the Kansas-
Missouri border and points along and west of Interstate-35, and is
where the risk of severe thunderstorms has been highlighted in the
forecast.

Sunday...storms may be ongoing in the morning hours again. Currently
trends indicate that left over activity from the overnight hours may
linger across Missouri through part of the daylight hours, though it
looks more likely that any left over storms will be cast off showers
from a more linear convective system moving from eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas and southern Missouri as the cold front advances across the
Plains. Have continued to highlighting the thunderstorm potential
Sunday morning with likely POPs across the eastern side of the
forecast area, but have worked to quickly remove the POPs starting in
the afternoon. Otherwise, it will be windy ahead of and behind the
cold front shifting across Kansas and Missouri. It`s likely that
subsidence behind the front will produce enough clearing of the skies
to allow for deep layer mixing, which model soundings suggest could
be through at least 800mb. With multiple models advising 850mb wind
speeds of 45 to 50 knots, thoughts are Sunday will be windy, and will
likely need a wind advisory for the mid-morning through afternoon
hours.

Cutter


Medium Range (Tuesday-Friday)...

A more quiet weather pattern is expected for next week as more of a
zonal flow sets up over the central U.S. For Tuesday, an area of
high pressure will be over the Great Lakes region, resulting in
light southerly winds into the region and temperatures near seasonal
normal. Models show a shortwave tracking eastward across the
Northern Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. A few scattered showers
are possible across north central and northeast Missouri Wednesday
afternoon and evening as a cold front extending from the surface low
beneath the shortwave dips southward into the area. These showers
will clear out by Thursday morning as the shortwave progresses
eastward, however models are showing the frontal boundary becoming
stationary near the Missouri/Iowa border. For Thursday, with high
pressure over the southeastern U.S. and a second surface low just
east of the Rockies, southerly winds will help boost temperatures
above normal into the 70s. Depending upon where the stationary
boundary is located in the vicinity of the Missouri/Iowa border,
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon across extreme northern Missouri. Better chances for more
widespread precipitation look to be Thursday night and Friday as the
surface low and associated cold front progress eastward into the
region. Models show precipitation exiting east of the region by
Friday evening. These showers and thunderstorms will help to drop
temperatures a few degrees for Friday, but still looking at above
normal conditions.

ACH


&&

.AVIATION...

The next batch of showers and thunderstorms now ongoing across parts
of southeast Kansas tonight. This activity is moving towards the
northeast, which should keep the bulk of the precipitation south of
the terminals. Cannot rule out some of this expanding into the KMKC
but confidence is too low to include at this time. Otherwise,
periodic sct low level clouds will traverse across the TAF sites over
the next few hours. MVFR cigs along with some light fog still remain
possible later tonight into the early morning hours as low level
moisture continues to advect northward. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may blossom by the morning hours across eastern Kansas
and move across the terminals by the mid to late morning. Confidence
is not high at this time but will include VCTS at this time to
account. Otherwise, winds will strengthen through the day becoming
strong and gusty through the afternoon.

Deroche

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO EAX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 1154 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2012


...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...


.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Tonight through Sunday)...

Surface trough extends from western IA through nw MO and through nw
OK. Boundary appears to have stalled and is delineated by cumulus
congestus on the northern portion and developing strong/possible
severe convection from southeastern KS swwd. This latter activity is
best handled by LSX local WRF while the 18z HRRR and 12z 4km NMM-WRF
models are a bit slower in their evolution. Airmass is moderately
unstable with MUCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range with 40kt 0-6km
shear and 200 m2/s2 storm relative helicity, in essence enough to
support supercells. As the low level jet kicks in this evening
expect the growing area of convection to expand east-northeastward
along a pseudo warm front that the LSX local WRF extends across the
far southern counties. This boundary and the convection will be
supported by the increasing southerly low level jet and allow the
complex to spread north toward the MO River by Saturday morning.
Have used this idea to construct grids/zones for tonight. There will
be some severe potential for the far southern counties overnight
with large hail the primary severe threat. Heavy rains are possible
over the far southern counties but 3hr flash flood guidance
averaging 2.5 inches/3 hours suggests rainfall tonight not enough to
warrant a watch.

Activity will likely be ongoing across area south of the MO River.
The warm front and convection will continue northward during the day
and have scaled back afternoon pops south of the MO River.
Temperatures will be tricky due to the rain cooled airmass and cloud
cover. Should the sun fail to come out the current temperatures,
although cooler than the previous forecast, may prove to be still
too warm.

Severe risk during the daylight hours will be tied to the morning
convection and believe it will be quite low as the airmass will
likely be quite saturated and minimal instability. Main focus for
the severe risk will be Saturday late evening into Sunday morning.
Upstream severe weather outbreak will likely advance steadily
eastward as a squall line as individual cells race northeast off the
line in excess of 50kts. Despite weakening instability during the
evening hours the low level shear will be quite high and thus still
able to support rotating individual storms through the night. As a
result there will be a risk of severe weather mainly west of
Interstate 35 for Saturday night. All storm modes...large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes...will be possible.

Sunday`s severe threat will likely be held hostage by how Saturday
night`s convective event unfolds and lays out any boundaries. Will
use a model consensus approach which suggests best convective
chances will be over the eastern half of the CWA. Rain chances will
end from west to east during the day on Sunday with Sunday night
likely dry.

MJ

Medium Range (Monday through Friday)...

By Monday the upper level trough that made for a stormy weekend will
shift east of the area and flatten out as the upper level flow
across the CONUS becomes more zonal. The main weather concerns will
revolve around two chances for precipitation, the first on Wednesday
and again Friday. High pressure will move into the area on Monday
behind a departing cold front. Temperatures will range into the
upper 50s to lower 60s. The surface ridge will remain over the area
on Tuesday as abundant sunshine will help temperatures range into
the low to mid 60s. On Wednesday a weak upper level shortwave
embedded in the zonal flow will move through the Upper Midwest
forcing a weak cold front through the area. Some light showers will
be possible with this system on Wednesday with the best chance for
showers along the Missouri/Iowa border. Thursday will feature a
return to southerly flow out ahead of another cold front moving
through the Plains. This will allow high temperatures to reach into
the 70s across the forecast area. Friday, a another upper level
shortwave will drop southeastward from the Northern Plains into the
Midwest which will force the aforementioned cold front though the
area. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday as the
front moves through thus have chance pops in for the day Friday.

73

&&

.AVIATION...

The next batch of showers and thunderstorms now ongoing across parts
of southeast Kansas tonight. This activity is moving towards the
northeast, which should keep the bulk of the precipitation south of
the terminals. Cannot rule out some of this expanding into the KMKC
but confidence is too low to include at this time. Otherwise,
periodic sct low level clouds will traverse across the TAF sites over
the next few hours. MVFR cigs along with some light fog still remain
possible later tonight into the early morning hours as low level
moisture continues to advect northward. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may blossom by the morning hours across eastern Kansas
and move across the terminals by the mid to late morning. Confidence
is not high at this time but will include VCTS at this time to
account. Otherwise, winds will strengthen through the day becoming
strong and gusty through the afternoon.

Deroche

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO EAX








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

 953 AM MDT SAT APR 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AWAY FROM THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IDAHO HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN MALHEUR AND SOUTHERN HARNEY
COUNTIES. RECENT GAGE REPORTS ARE INDICTING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PER
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BOI MORNING SOUNDING AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CONTINUING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. MINOR UPDATES TO
POP/WEATHER/SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CHANCE FOR
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH THESE SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY IN SW
IDAHO...FROM 18Z - 00Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20
KTS...WITH STRONGER WINDS FROM KMUO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MAGIC
VALLEY AT 25-30 KTS. SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER
03Z AND BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. NNW WINDS ALOFT UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL. SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT FOR VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM SE
TO NW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84 BETWEEN WEATHERBY AND GLENNS FERRY AS
OF 3 AM ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND U.S. 95 BETWEEN MARSING
AND MCDERMITT THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
TRACKS THROUGH THE DESERT SW U.S. THE 00Z GFS HINTED AT THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA BUT THE RUC HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL TO CAPTURE
THE SHOWERS. NOW THE 6Z NAM IS CATCHING ON TOO. AN UPPER IMPULSE AS
NOTED IN THE 1.5 PV FIELD OVER SE WA TO SW OREGON WILL SPREAD AN
AREA OF LIFT ACROSS OREGON TODAY AND CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON
FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS...AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SW IDAHO BY AROUND 20Z WILL SPREAD GUSTY WEST TO NW
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FLOW ALIGNS WITH
TERRAIN BETWEEN THE BENNETT HILLS AND OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...WHERE
SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUST TO 45 MPH ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FROM SOUTH OF BOISE AROUND GLENNS FERRY TO AROUND JACKPOT.
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE PV FIELD WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO BY 6Z
WITH A MILD RIDGE AND LESS WIND EXPECTED ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW
IDAHO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A FAST ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE NORTH. IN
THIS REGIME...WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EVERY DAY OR
TWO. NORMALLY CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF EACH WAVE IS LOW IN THIS
FAST FLOW...HOWEVER CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS UNUSUALLY GOOD.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED FORECAST MORE DETERMINISTIC IN THE
MID-RANGE...AND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY IN THE FAR EXTENDED/NEXT WEEKEND.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014-015-030.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....CB
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....BB






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 1045 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MIDDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST IL. CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE LATER TODAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH
MILDEST READINGS SE OF I-70 AND WEST OF PEORIA AND SPRINGFIELD.
SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

A COUPLE OF MCS/S PASSED OVER CENTRAL AND SE IL THIS MORNING WITH
1ST MCS MAINLY GIVING RAINS OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF I-72 AND 2ND MCS
THIS MORNING GETING RAINS AS FAR NORTH AS KNOX...STARK AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. 3RD MCS WAS OVER CENTRAL MO. COOP OBSERVER IN MATTOON IN
CENTRAL COLES COUNTY MEASURED 1.65 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 8 AM AND
LIKELY OVER 2 INCHES BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME WATER IN THE
STREETS. AN URBANA AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
COLES... CENTRAL/SE SHELBY...SE MOULTRIE AND NW CUMBERLAND COUNTY
UNTIL 130 PM. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVIEST RAINS WERE FROM TERRE
HAUTE...TO ROBINSON TO OLNEY AND MOVING ENE. RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WERE HEAVY AT TIMES WERE ALREADY BREAKING UP OVER CENTRAL IL AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION BECOMES
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC KEEPS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS JUST WEST KNOX AND SCHUYLER
COUNTY BUT COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL IN SE
IL...SOUTHEAST OF I-70 NEXT FEW HOURS. HAD REPORT OF PEA SIZE HAIL
IN MATTOON AROUND 830 AM. 1000 MB AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL CO HAS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO CENTRAL MO AND FAR
SOUTHERN IL SOUTH OF I-64. 12Z MODELS LIFT WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTHERN IL/IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPS
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND MOIST DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH JACKSONVILLE DEWPOINT UP TO 61F. TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER 10 DEGREES WITH SOME SUNSHINE APPEARING LATER
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HUETTL

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT NORTH LATE TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT BUT
EXPECT A NORTHWARD DRIFT TO THE RAIN TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN AND SCT TSRA LIFT
NORTH ACRS THE TAF SITES. CURRENT TAFS HAVE THIS INDICATED BUT WILL
TRY TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE MOST CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CIGS THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AFTR 02Z TAKING MOST OF THE
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS WITH IT. WILL BREAK OUT OF THE MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES THIS EVE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT SPI AND DEC WHICH SHOULD SEE THE WARM
FRONT SHIFT TO THEIR NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT AT 12 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.

SMITH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 247 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 07Z SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS TRACKING E/NE ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER 00Z MODEL DATA IS
NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS VERY WELL AT ALL.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHIFT THE PRECIP NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BY 12Z...HOWEVER LATEST RADAR LOOPS ARE NOT SUPPORTING
THIS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THINK A CONTINUED E/NE
TRAJECTORY IS MORE PROBABLE. AS A RESULT...HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN KILX CWA TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR. 04Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THINGS AND SUGGESTS THE NORTH MAY REMAIN LARGELY DRY AT LEAST
THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF
I-74 THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH THINK MODELS ARE TRYING TO PUSH BOUNDARY
NORTH TOO QUICKLY. END RESULT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...TAPERING DOWN
TO SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...TEMPS WILL BE HELD A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM COLORADO THIS
EVENING TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
IS LOST.

WINDY AND VERY WARM WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...AS MIXING COULD POTENTIALLY BRING
EVEN HIGHER GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUANCE FOR NOW...PENDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WAA...HIGH TEMPS WILL
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL SLIDE BY TO THE N/NW AND GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE S/SW...THINK POTENT MID/LOW-LEVEL
JETS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES INCREASING TO 400 TO 500 BY 00Z MON...WITH MOST OF
THIS INCREASE DUE TO SPEED SHEAR. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAST-MOVING AND CAPABLE OF BRINGING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS LINE OF
STORMS INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AFTER 21Z...THEN INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER 06Z.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS WILL EXIT CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER ON MONDAY. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
SUPPORT W/NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH...WHILE HIGH TEMPS DROP
BACK INTO THE 60S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALLOWING A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEMS TO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. A RATHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BEST
LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER WAVE APPROACHING
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 626 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 247 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 07Z SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS TRACKING E/NE ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER 00Z MODEL DATA IS
NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS VERY WELL AT ALL.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHIFT THE PRECIP NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BY 12Z...HOWEVER LATEST RADAR LOOPS ARE NOT SUPPORTING
THIS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THINK A CONTINUED E/NE
TRAJECTORY IS MORE PROBABLE. AS A RESULT...HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN KILX CWA TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR. 04Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THINGS AND SUGGESTS THE NORTH MAY REMAIN LARGELY DRY AT LEAST
THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF
I-74 THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH THINK MODELS ARE TRYING TO PUSH BOUNDARY
NORTH TOO QUICKLY. END RESULT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...TAPERING DOWN
TO SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...TEMPS WILL BE HELD A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM COLORADO THIS
EVENING TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
IS LOST.

WINDY AND VERY WARM WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...AS MIXING COULD POTENTIALLY BRING
EVEN HIGHER GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUANCE FOR NOW...PENDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WAA...HIGH TEMPS WILL
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL SLIDE BY TO THE N/NW AND GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE S/SW...THINK POTENT MID/LOW-LEVEL
JETS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES INCREASING TO 400 TO 500 BY 00Z MON...WITH MOST OF
THIS INCREASE DUE TO SPEED SHEAR. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAST-MOVING AND CAPABLE OF BRINGING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS LINE OF
STORMS INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AFTER 21Z...THEN INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER 06Z.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS WILL EXIT CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER ON MONDAY. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
SUPPORT W/NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH...WHILE HIGH TEMPS DROP
BACK INTO THE 60S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALLOWING A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEMS TO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. A RATHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BEST
LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER WAVE APPROACHING
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT NORTH LATE TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT BUT
EXPECT A NORTHWARD DRIFT TO THE RAIN TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN AND SCT TSRA LIFT
NORTH ACRS THE TAF SITES. CURRENT TAFS HAVE THIS INDICATED BUT WILL
TRY TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE MOST CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CIGS THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AFTR 02Z TAKING MOST OF THE
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS WITH IT. WILL BREAK OUT OF THE MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES THIS EVE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT SPI AND DEC WHICH SHOULD SEE THE WARM
FRONT SHIFT TO THEIR NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT AT 12 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.

SMITH
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1022 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

RADAR LOOPS SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SPREADING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AND RAPID REFRESH SHOWS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOST OF TODAY. OVERALL CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK AND I DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OTHER THAN LOWERING WIND SPEEDS
SLIGHTLY.

THE 12Z RUC INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S MAY NOT SPREAD MUCH
PAST OUR EXTREME SOUTH AND I WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH.  THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF
MIXING AND WILL LOWER WIND SPEEDS ALL AREAS JUST A BIT.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST AT THE MOMENT FROM ILLINOIS BACK TO KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. AT THE MOMENT THE MODEL THAT IS REFLECTING THE CURRENT
RADAR BEST IS THE HRRR. LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION TODAY IN REGARDS
TO POPS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...PROVIDING LIFT
ALONG AND WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER IMPULSES WILL PROVIDE
SUPPORT TO THE LIFT ALREADY BEING GENERATED BY THE WARM FRONT.

THE LIFT PLUS MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. MOS POPS AND THE HRRR FORECAST AGREE WITH THIS...SO FEEL NO
NEED TO CUT MOS POPS. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
AREA.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SPC FORECAST AGREE THAT SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD NOT OCCUR TODAY.

WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
FRONT...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED BACK HIGHS TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GENERALLY WENT BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ON ITS WAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
KEPT LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH
CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WENT LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING RAIN. WENT ABOVE MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

REMOVED ALL POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FORCING IN THE
AREA. WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION...WENT ABOVE MOS FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE WINDY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
PRODUCE GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DECENT FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT FOR LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...AND BASED
ON EXPECTED TIMING WENT LIKELY POPS EXTREME EAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXTREME WEST DURING THE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE
TAKEN MOST OF THE RAIN WITH IT AS IT HEADS EAST OF THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY LATE DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. LOW PRESSURE SET TO
TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
LIMIT MOISTURE AND FORCING ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...FOCUSING THE
BETTER LIFT FURTHER NORTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ISOLATED PRECIP THAT CAN MIGRATE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
BOUNDARY.

BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY EARLY FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS
WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAINTAINED HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

1030Z UPDATE...ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CEILINGS BASED ON
TRENDS PAST 2 HOURS. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS DUE INTO
CENTRAL AROUND 16Z SO WENT DRY IN THE PREVAILING AND KEPT THUNDER
IN FOR 16Z. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PREV DISC
FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TONIGHT.

AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING TOGETHER OVER THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT KBMG...KHUF
AND KIND FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DROPS TO
MVFR VISIBILITIES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ARRIVE IN THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING THUNDER AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 15-16Z AND PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HRRR CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE SEVERAL WAVES OF
CONVECTION LIFTING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ITS NOT LIKELY TO RAIN THE
ENTIRE AFTERNOON...FELT PREVAILING THUNDER WAS THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS FAVOR LOWER
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-2000FT DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. S/SW WINDS AT 10-15KTS EXPECTED.

CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HAVE MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AT NEAR 10KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/SMF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1018 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM SECTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

RADAR LOOPS SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SPREADING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AND RAPID REFRESH SHOWS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOST OF TODAY. OVERALL CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK AND I DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OTHER THAN LOWERING WIND SPEEDS
SLIGHTLY.

THE 12Z RUC INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S MAY NOT SPREAD MUCH
PAST OUR EXTREME SOUTH AND I WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH.  THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF
MIXING AND WILL LOWER WIND SPEEDS ALL AREAS JUST A BIT.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST AT THE MOMENT FROM ILLINOIS BACK TO KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. AT THE MOMENT THE MODEL THAT IS REFLECTING THE CURRENT
RADAR BEST IS THE HRRR. LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION TODAY IN REGARDS
TO POPS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...PROVIDING LIFT
ALONG AND WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER IMPULSES WILL PROVIDE
SUPPORT TO THE LIFT ALREADY BEING GENERATED BY THE WARM FRONT.

THE LIFT PLUS MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. MOS POPS AND THE HRRR FORECAST AGREE WITH THIS...SO FEEL NO
NEED TO CUT MOS POPS. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
AREA.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SPC FORECAST AGREE THAT SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD NOT OCCUR TODAY.

WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
FRONT...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED BACK HIGHS TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GENERALLY WENT BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ON ITS WAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
KEPT LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH
CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WENT LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING RAIN. WENT ABOVE MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

REMOVED ALL POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FORCING IN THE
AREA. WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION...WENT ABOVE MOS FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE WINDY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
PRODUCE GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DECENT FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT FOR LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...AND BASED
ON EXPECTED TIMING WENT LIKELY POPS EXTREME EAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXTREME WEST DURING THE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE
TAKEN MOST OF THE RAIN WITH IT AS IT HEADS EAST OF THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY LATE DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. LOW PRESSURE SET TO
TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
LIMIT MOISTURE AND FORCING ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...FOCUSING THE
BETTER LIFT FURTHER NORTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ISOLATED PRECIP THAT CAN MIGRATE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
BOUNDARY.

BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY EARLY FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS
WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAINTAINED HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TONIGHT.

AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING TOGETHER OVER THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT KBMG...KHUF
AND KIND FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DROPS TO
MVFR VISIBILITIES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ARRIVE IN THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING THUNDER AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 15-16Z AND PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HRRR CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE SEVERAL WAVES OF
CONVECTION LIFTING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ITS NOT LIKELY TO RAIN THE
ENTIRE AFTERNOON...FELT PREVAILING THUNDER WAS THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS FAVOR LOWER
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-2000FT DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. S/SW WINDS AT 10-15KTS EXPECTED.

CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HAVE MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AT NEAR 10KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 702 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST AT THE MOMENT FROM
ILLINOIS BACK TO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. AT THE MOMENT THE MODEL THAT
IS REFLECTING THE CURRENT RADAR BEST IS THE HRRR. LEANED TOWARD ITS
SOLUTION TODAY IN REGARDS TO POPS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...PROVIDING LIFT
ALONG AND WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER IMPULSES WILL PROVIDE
SUPPORT TO THE LIFT ALREADY BEING GENERATED BY THE WARM FRONT.

THE LIFT PLUS MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. MOS POPS AND THE HRRR FORECAST AGREE WITH THIS...SO FEEL NO
NEED TO CUT MOS POPS. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
AREA.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SPC FORECAST AGREE THAT SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD NOT OCCUR TODAY.

WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
FRONT...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED BACK HIGHS TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GENERALLY WENT BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ON ITS WAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
KEPT LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH
CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WENT LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING RAIN. WENT ABOVE MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

REMOVED ALL POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FORCING IN THE
AREA. WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION...WENT ABOVE MOS FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE WINDY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
PRODUCE GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DECENT FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT FOR LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...AND BASED
ON EXPECTED TIMING WENT LIKELY POPS EXTREME EAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXTREME WEST DURING THE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE
TAKEN MOST OF THE RAIN WITH IT AS IT HEADS EAST OF THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY LATE DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. LOW PRESSURE SET TO
TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
LIMIT MOISTURE AND FORCING ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...FOCUSING THE
BETTER LIFT FURTHER NORTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ISOLATED PRECIP THAT CAN MIGRATE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
BOUNDARY.

BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY EARLY FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS
WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAINTAINED HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TONIGHT.

AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING TOGETHER OVER THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT KBMG...KHUF
AND KIND FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DROPS TO
MVFR VISIBILITIES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND ARRIVE IN THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING THUNDER AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 15-16Z AND PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HRRR CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE SEVERAL WAVES OF
CONVECTION LIFTING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ITS NOT LIKELY TO RAIN THE
ENTIRE AFTERNOON...FELT PREVAILING THUNDER WAS THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS FAVOR LOWER
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-2000FT DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. S/SW WINDS AT 10-15KTS EXPECTED.

CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HAVE MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AT NEAR 10KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1150 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW 3 DISTINCT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS OR REMNANTS OF MCS. THE FIRST IN THE LINE IS CENTERED OVER
SW OH...SE IN AND N KY. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS COMPLEX...WHICH
DOES HAVE SOME LIGHTNING IN IT WILL AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE IN IL BORDER AND THE THIRD IN LINE IS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MO.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR SOUTH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND WITH EACH SYSTEM. THE 12Z NAM AND RUC SEEM
TO HAVE THE ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY TOO FAR NORTH...NOT BY MUCH...BUT A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IS IMPORTANT FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...HRRR....HAS BEEN HANDLING THE
CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL...BUT IS TOO FAR SOUTH. A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE BEST AT THIS TIME.

THE MCS HAVE BEEN MOVING ENE...FOLLOWING THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO N ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD...WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER
ERN KY...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT THE CONVECTION THREAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAY NEED TO HOLD ONTO A SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR
NOW.

HAVE UPDATED THE NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
IS VERY LIGHT...BUT NOTE 0.01 WAS RECORDED AT THE OWSLEY COUNTY
MESONET STATION JUST BEFORE 8 AM...AND SIMILAR RADAR RETURNS EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS BELL COUNTY. HAVE ALSO UPDATED HOURLY NDFD BASED ON
LATEST SURFACE AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM NOW. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST
A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY REACHING A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...
GENERALLY INCREASING THEM SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH AND EXPANDING THEM
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR TWEAKS GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED. AFTER A CLOSER
LOOK...THIS BOUNDARY IS PROBABLY THE WARM FRONT THAT WE HAVE BEEN
ANTICIPATING. WINDS ARE VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTH BEHIND IT AND SFC
DEW POINTS ARE ON THE RISE FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDITIONAL ISOLD SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOW FIRING ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. EXPENDED ISOLD POPS THROUGH THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...COVERING WHAT REMAINS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
AGAIN...BASED ON SFC OBS MOST ACTIVITY THROUGH DAWN WILL RESULT IN
NOTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN THAT JUST WETS THE GROUND. ONLY
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL ACTUALLY MEASURE...WHERE THE STRONGEST SHOWERS
PASS.

NEXT FEATURE IS COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
EASTWARD FROM IL INTO IN THIS MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH OHIO.
WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...MODELS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTH AND TAPERED SOUTHWARD FROM THERE. THIS PUTS THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE RAIN TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED TO ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTHWARD TO THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY...THOUGH EXPECT MOST IF ANY
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. DO NOT
SEE MUCH IF ANYTHING SOUTH OF HAL ROGERS. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS
MARGINAL AT BEST CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
NOW...CLOUDS AND ANY PRECIPITATION WE MANAGE TO SEE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER TODAY. BUT DECENT RIDGING ALOFT...CLEARING
SKIES AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL DRIVE TEMPS UP INTO THE
80S SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY BUMPED TEMPS UP JUST A TAD SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM A HIGH JUST EAST OF THE FL/GA BORDER...ACROSS THE CAROLINA AND
THEN BISECTING PA AND NY.  THERE WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR SIOUX CITY AND THEN EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER WS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS ST LOUIS TO
ARKLATEX. THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
EAST AND THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE FRONT MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY EVENING. AROUND HERE...A GENERAL RULE OF THUMB WHEN
SYSTEMS ARE TRYING TO MOVE INTO AN UPPER RIDGE...IS SLOWER IS
BETTER. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL SLOW THE FRONT DOWN A LITTLE. ONCE
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER
THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
A ZONAL PATTERN IS THAT SYSTEMS MOVE PRETTY FAST...AND SO TIMING OF
THE PRECIPITATION CAN BECOME DIFFICULT...HOWEVER THE TEMPERATURES
BECOME MORE CERTAIN AS THERE ARE NOT SUCH BIG SWINGS AS A FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD
START EFFECTING THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...ONLY MADE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA LATER TODAY. THEREFORE CARRIED VCSH FOR JKL THIS AFTERNOON.

CIGS AND VSBY REMAIN IN VFR RANGE BUT EXPECT OCCASIONAL CIGS BETWEEN
5K AND 9K FT WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15KT FOR GOOD MEASURE. SOME LLWS
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS AROUND 14Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...JJ







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 724 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES. A WELL-DEFINED SHRTWV OVER CNTRL WI SUPPORTED A SCT
BAND OF SHOWERS FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO SRN WI. A VERY POTENT
UPSTREAM SHRTWV THAT WILL IMPACT WX OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT WAS MOVING THROUGH WRN AZ. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW
PREVAILED THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF A LOW OVER NW MN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

TODAY...ANY LINGERING SCT PCPN OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA WILL
MOVE OUT DURING THE MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT DURING
THE MORNING...PER UPSTREAM OBS OVER MN. WITH SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 70 INLAND WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE MID 30S. WITH RH VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND
GUSTY WSW WINDS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES SAT
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE TEMPS/WINDS WILL BE
HIGHEST.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE SW CONUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE PLAINS...SFC LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER
NEBRASKA AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MORE TO THE NW WITH THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND PROMINENT RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKES. A LARGE AREA OF PCPN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC WARM FRONT AS STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND
TOWARD A LATER ARRIVAL OF PCPN INTO UPPER MI WITH THE STRONGER LIFT
CONFINED NEAR THE 850 MB WARM FRONT. THE EFFECTS OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH MAY LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TO THE NORTH ARE OFTEN POORLY HANDLED BY THE MODELS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
UPPER MI AND STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV NEAR THE
CWA...PER 00Z/14 GFS AND ECMWF...EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND STRONG
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSHING PWAT
VALUES TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 11C...WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA.
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT TSRA. GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR WITH THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME REVOLVE ARND TRACK OF LO PRES
MOVING THRU THE UPR LKS/ACCOMPANYING PCPN SHIELD/POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PCPN.

SUN NGT...00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COMMON SCENARIO FOR THE
LO TRACK...WITH THE LO TENDING TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE CWA TO
NEAR ERY BY 12Z MON AS THE SHRTWV SHEARS OUT IN THE CONFLUENCE ZN ON
THE NW FLANK OF THE SE RDG. DRY SURGE AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE
LOOKS TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE E HALF OF THE CWA MUCH OF THE NGT
BEFORE BACKWASH MSTR UNDER THE SHRTWV ITSELF ROTATES W-E INTO THE W
HALF 06Z-12Z MON. DESPITE SOME RATHER DEEP MSTR...INCRSG DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS RELATED TO COLD AIR SURGING INTO
THE AREA AS WELL AS H3-2 CNVGC WL TEND TO WORK AGAINST A SGNFT PCPN
EVENT. ALSO SINCE THE LO IS WEAKENING...SOME MODELS HINT THE LLVL
FLOW WL BE ONLY WEAKLY CYC. AS FOR PCPN TYPE...THE NAM/GFS FCST
SDNGS HINT THE INITIAL COOLING WL BE FOCUSED IN THE LLVLS BLO A
LINGERING ELEVATED WARMER LYR. THIS COOLING PROFILE WOULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA/SLEET BEFORE THE PCPN CHGS TO ALL
SN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER COLD AIR. BUT EVEN IF THERE IS
SOME FZRA...LIMITED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE/WARM GROUND
FM A WARM SUN AFTN SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SGNFT ICING.

MON...AS THE SHRTWV/SFC LO CONTINUE TO SHEAR TO THE E AND WEAKEN...
LINGERING BACKWASH MSTR WL SLOWLY DECAY WITH COMPLETE EXIT OF
QVECTOR CNVGC BY THE AFTN. BUT A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA LATE SUN NGT/MON
MRNG...MAINLY IN AREAS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W AND NCNTRL
IMPACTED BY THE UPSLOPE NLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY IF THE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER DYNAMICS INDICATED BY THE 00Z NAM/UKMET MATERIALIZE. BY THE
AFTN...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER ESPECIALLY THE W AS
MORE ACYC FLOW/DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THAT AREA ON THE SRN FLANK OF
BLDG HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. OTRW...A GUSTY N WIND WITH H925 WINDS
ARND 30 KTS WL MAKE THE DAY FEEL ALMOST LIKE MID WINTER.

MON NGT...LARGER SCALE PCPN WL BE OVER WITH DEPARTURE OF DEEP MSTR/
DYNAMICS. BUT SOME LK CLDS WL PERSIST IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP
OVER MAINLY THE E HALF UNDER CYC NLY FLOW...WHERE LLVL THERMAL TROF
WL RESIDE WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -10C PER THE GFS. OPTED TO RETAIN
SOME SCHC POPS FOR -SHSN IN THIS AREA AS WELL WITH TEMPS ALMOST COLD
ENUF FOR LES. IN FACT...THE NAM SHOWS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -12C.
EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS CLOSE TO THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE MOCLR WITH PWAT
NEAR 0.10 INCH/LGT WINDS CLOSER TO THE RDG AXIS.

EXTENDED...EXPECT A DRY...SEASONABLY CHILLY PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE
NGT WITH HUDSON BAY HI PRES DOMINATING. NEXT DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY
TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WED...BUT 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW RADICALLY
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR THIS DISTURBANCE...SO RELIED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE FCST. AFT SOME DRYING ON THU WITH HI PRES
FOLLOWING...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING ANOTHER DEEPER
LO THRU THE UPR MIDWEST TO END THE WEEK. IF THIS MODEL IS CORRECT...
UPR MI WOULD SEE SOME SGNFT SN. BUT SINCE THE GFS IS DRY WITH THE
SHRTWV TRACKING MUCH FARTHER TO THE S...WENT WITH MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE THAT LOWER END MVFR AND
EVEN SOME IFR CIGS OVER WI WERE RAPIDLY GIVING WAY TO CLEARING AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SO...EXPECT THAT A PERIOD OF MVRR CIGS AT THE
TAF SITES EARLY TODAY WILL ALSO SCT OUT QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AS DRYING OF THE COLUMN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER JET STREAK
TAKES OVER. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX UNDER A
MORE FAVORABLE WRLY FLOW THERE. MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...PCPN AND ANY LOWER CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

SE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL BECOME SW TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. EXPECT A N TO NE GALE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF MAINLY
THE CENTRAL LK ON LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SHARPENING PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LO PRES AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO ONTARIO.
SHARP SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ENHANCE MIXING OF HIER WINDS TO THE SFC.
THE APPROACH OF THE HI PRES RIDGE WILL CAUSE DIMINISHING WINDS BY MON
NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU MID WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 627 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WAVE FROM LAST NIGHT HAS BROUGHT IN DRIER AIR BUT IFR CIGS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WERE WORKING SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON LIGHT
SOUTH BREEZES. SOME OF THE IFR CIGS WILL AFFECT KEAU AND KRNH FOR
A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING WHILE VSBYS AROUND 4-5SM MAY AFFECT
KMSP..KRWF...AND KSTC ALONG WITH FEW-SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BE PUSHING
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA BY EVENING AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. ALSO
EXPECT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KSTC TO
KAXN..MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL AFFECT THOSE
KRWF AND KSTC AS WELL. THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE NEAR
KRWF WHERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND VSBYS DOWN TO 2SM IN HEAVIER RAIN
AS WELL. FOR OTHER SITES...MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS LIKELY IN STORMS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS NEAR KRWF AND
KMSP IN THE MORNING BUT HAVE JUST ABOVE THAT FOR NOW. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST ALL SITES BY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AND A SCT LAYER OF IFR LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES BY MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE FAIRLY FAST...AND MUCH OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST AND NORTH BY 12Z. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH HAIL FOR
NOW...BUT SOMEHTING THAT MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED LATE. STILL
SOME MVFR CIGS WITH SCT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM AFTER 12Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN BECOMING EAST
TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS. WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
.SUN...IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS -SHRA/TSRA.
.MON...LINGERING IFR/MVFR EARLY...THEN VFR MON AFTN.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...VFR.




&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER TONIGHT OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SUNDAY. INITIALLY HAVE
SOME STRATUS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OVER THE EASTERN CWA...IN THE
WAKE OF THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIFTED THROUGH THE AREA
LAST EVENING. HRRR HAS THIS LIFTING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TWIN
CITIES AREA AND OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...BURNING OFF THROUGH LATE
MORNING. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. WILL TRIM POPS BACK TO SMALL CHANCE SOUTHWEST AFTER 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE LIKELY MOVING IN DURING THE EVENING THOUGH.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
60S TO SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

STRONG WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ATTENDANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. POWERFUL JET
SEGMENT NOSES INTO THE AREA BY 06Z AND SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WORK
INTO SOUTHWEST MN DURING THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AS IT LIFTS NORTH...WITH SOME HAIL
A THREAT LATER TONIGHT. ELEVATED NATURE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT
TORNADO THREAT DURING THE NIGHT.

SYSTEM SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND ALL MODELS TRENDING SURFACE
LOW/OCCLUSION MOVING SLOWLY EAST INTO EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BORDER
THROUGH 18Z-21Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE MAIN ACTIVITY LIFT INTO
CENTRAL MN EARLY SUNDAY WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN
TOWARD 18Z SUN WITH THE GFS SHOWING MAIN TROUGH AND 130 KNOT JET
NOSING LEADING TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH HAIL AND WIND A THREAT. SREF
CONTINUES TO POINT TO DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER EAST...AND WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...WONT INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING YET IN THE
EASTERN CWA.

COLD AIR MOVES IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE AT
LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING INTO CENTRAL AREAS.

LONGER TERM INDICATING MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS FASTER/MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/JPR






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 635 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2012


...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...


.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Today through Monday)...

A large trough continues to make landfall over the west coast with a
100+ knot jet streak helping dig it towards the Four Corners. It is
this primary trough that will be our focus for Saturday`s into
Sunday`s weather as it begins to lift through the Plains States.
Closer to home, a compact shortwave is noted lifting through the
northern Plains into Canada ahead of the main trough to the west,
with a weakly defined frontal boundary stretching southwest from it
in Minnesota through Iowa and eastern Kansas. Frontal boundary is
only notable this morning as it helps define the location of the warm
sector -where all the thunderstorm activity is- and the cold sector
-where the storms are not-. Ongoing thunderstorm activity in the warm
sector, currently stretched from central Oklahoma northeast through
Missouri into central Illinois, appears to owe its existence to the
moisture and warm air advection resulting from the persistent
southwest low level jet.

Previous days runs of the NMM-WRF and even the NSSL-WRF have done a
fine job with the handling of convection across our region of the
Plains, but recent 00Z from the 14th appeared to have some
initialization problems, and therefore don`t even have the current
activity this morning handled well. Conversely, the 01Z HRRR has
done a decent job of initializing overnight, and capturing trends
noted thus far this morning. NAM, and to a lesser extent the GFS,
both agree well with the HRRR through the periods that they overlap,
so a combination of these model runs have been used to guide today`s
forecast.

For today...thunderstorms will be ongoing this morning as the low
level jet continues to feed the needed ingredients for thunderstorms
across the region. Models have been hinting at, and latest radar
trends would agree, that the jet will become a little less focused
as we transit the sunrise hours, resulting in a broad warm air wing
of showers and thunderstorms developing from the current activity
across Oklahoma and Kansas. This activity would shift north through
the morning hours, likely residing in Nebraska and Iowa by this
afternoon. Have gone with likely POPs through the morning hours as a
result, while limiting POPs after noon to the chance category across
the northern half of the forecast region. Behind the warm wing of
convective activity a weak, but still present, EML should help cap
off new activity during the afternoon hours. So, what chance POPs
are in for the afternoon are more for lingering activity behind the
warm wing.

As we move towards tonight, attention for a significant round of
severe weather remains focused in areas just to the west, from
central Oklahoma north into the eastern half of Nebraska. As the
100+ knot jet streak rounding the base of the western CONUS trough
shifting through the Plains later tonight, it will bring a favorable
diffluent flow aloft to the dry-line across Kansas and Oklahoma this
evening, and while the instability from diurnal heating will be
fading some, there should be more than enough lingering to fuel all
manner of severe weather. Latest model runs continue to keep the
focus for the onset time of these KS-OK initiating storms after 00Z.
With growing confidence in the late onset of storms, have restricted
the likely POPs for the evening hours to areas west of Interstate-35,
after 03Z, as current initiation timing indicates that it might be
near, or after, midnight before storms shift into our region. All
modes of severe weather still look possible with tonight`s storms
given the abundant shear and helicity values, meaning large hail,
damaging winds, flooding rains, and isolated tornadoes will be
possible with any of tonight`s storms. However, the highest potential
for any of the severe weather looks to be roughly along the Kansas-
Missouri border and points along and west of Interstate-35, and is
where the risk of severe thunderstorms has been highlighted in the
forecast.

Sunday...storms may be ongoing in the morning hours again. Currently
trends indicate that left over activity from the overnight hours may
linger across Missouri through part of the daylight hours, though it
looks more likely that any left over storms will be cast off showers
from a more linear convective system moving from eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas and southern Missouri as the cold front advances across the
Plains. Have continued to highlighting the thunderstorm potential
Sunday morning with likely POPs across the eastern side of the
forecast area, but have worked to quickly remove the POPs starting in
the afternoon. Otherwise, it will be windy ahead of and behind the
cold front shifting across Kansas and Missouri. It`s likely that
subsidence behind the front will produce enough clearing of the skies
to allow for deep layer mixing, which model soundings suggest could
be through at least 800mb. With multiple models advising 850mb wind
speeds of 45 to 50 knots, thoughts are Sunday will be windy, and will
likely need a wind advisory for the mid-morning through afternoon
hours.

Cutter


Medium Range (Tuesday-Friday)...

A more quiet weather pattern is expected for next week as more of a
zonal flow sets up over the central U.S. For Tuesday, an area of
high pressure will be over the Great Lakes region, resulting in
light southerly winds into the region and temperatures near seasonal
normal. Models show a shortwave tracking eastward across the
Northern Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. A few scattered showers
are possible across north central and northeast Missouri Wednesday
afternoon and evening as a cold front extending from the surface low
beneath the shortwave dips southward into the area. These showers
will clear out by Thursday morning as the shortwave progresses
eastward, however models are showing the frontal boundary becoming
stationary near the Missouri/Iowa border. For Thursday, with high
pressure over the southeastern U.S. and a second surface low just
east of the Rockies, southerly winds will help boost temperatures
above normal into the 70s. Depending upon where the stationary
boundary is located in the vicinity of the Missouri/Iowa border,
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon across extreme northern Missouri. Better chances for more
widespread precipitation look to be Thursday night and Friday as the
surface low and associated cold front progress eastward into the
region. Models show precipitation exiting east of the region by
Friday evening. These showers and thunderstorms will help to drop
temperatures a few degrees for Friday, but still looking at above
normal conditions.

ACH

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 12Z TAFs...Thunderstorms continue to percolate across areas
from southeast Kansas through northeast Missouri, with the activity
currently passing south of all the terminals. However, this might
change later in the morning as a broad area of thunderstorms may
develop and lift through western Missouri during the late morning to
early afternoon hours. Confidence in timing and/or placement of storms
with this is low, so have opted to characterize any possible late
morning activity with VCTS. Confidence is much higher that storms will
develop later tonight in Kansas, which will shift northeast through
the terminals during the late night hours. Otherwise, watch for gusty
south winds to begin prevailing today, with the strong and gusty
nature of the winds likely persisting through the entirety of, and
beyond, this TAF cycle.

Cutter

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO EAX








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 916 AM MDT SAT APR 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF MT...AND TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS BAKER. RADAR IMAGERY AT 15 UTC IS SHOWING
A BATCH OF RAIN HEADING NORTH OUT OF SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY...WITH
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS ACTIVITY TAKING IT INTO CARTER COUNTY
BY 17 UTC. THE 06 UTC GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AS
IT SHOWS A NOTABLE AREA OF 500-300 HPA Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THIS AREA DURING THE DAY. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EVEN EXISTS
TO HELP ALONG THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY RADAR IMAGES
SHOW SOME MODEST BANDED STRUCTURES TO THE RAIN. THE HRRR RUNS FROM
11 AND 12 UTC ALSO SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES
IT...AND HOW LONG IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. SOUNDINGS FROM
BAKER ARE NOT ESPECIALLY MOIST...SO WE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THAT FAR NORTH FOR NOW. AS FAR AS THE TEMPORAL QUESTION MARKS
GO...WE WILL TAKE SOMETHING OF A WAIT-AND-SEE APPROACH FOR NOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE DYNAMICS WILL BE WANING AFTER 00 UTC...BUT THE LAST FEW
HRRR RUNS DO LINGER SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN MT INTO THE EVENING.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN AND CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS DIURNAL HEATING LEADS TO A BIT OF INSTABILITY. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

NOTHING DRAMATIC TO ADVERTISE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT DEVIATING TOO FAR FROM SEASONAL NORMALS. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY. CYCLE REPEATS ITSELF ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WITH NEITHER WAVE ACTUALLY LOOKING THAT STRONG.
ONE THING OF INTEREST IS MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE...INDICATIVE THAT THE
LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.

ANOTHER WAVE ON FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AND CONTINUED TREND
FEATURED EARLIER IN THE WEEK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND LARGELY ISOLATED POPS FOR THE PLAINS. BOTH 00Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT BROADER RIDGING FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FOR
WARMER TEMPS AND LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE FOR
TEMPERATURES SINCE PATTERN MAY NOT AMPLIFY AS QUICKLY AND TRENDED
WITH DRIER POPS...BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BUT STILL
INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY TODAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
OVER WYOMING. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL FAVOR SHOWERS
FORMING ON THE NORTHEAST ASPECTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN MOVING
AWAY FROM THE PLAINS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE ISOLATED AND
LIGHT OVER THE PLAINS WITH LITTLE IMPACTS TO CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY. ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT
DECREASING CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KSHR IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. BORSUM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057 034/047 031/059 039/063 039/064 043/060 036/061
    2/T 25/W    41/B    12/W    21/B    23/W    22/W
LVM 052 029/041 027/056 034/060 037/060 038/055 032/057
    2/T 36/W    52/W    23/W    22/W    43/W    32/W
HDN 060 035/052 030/060 035/066 035/066 038/063 036/062
    2/T 24/W    41/B    12/W    21/B    23/W    22/W
MLS 064 035/052 030/058 036/065 037/065 038/061 038/060
    1/B 23/W    31/B    12/W    21/B    23/W    22/W
4BQ 060 032/055 027/057 034/065 036/066 037/062 037/061
    4/W 33/W    32/W    12/W    21/B    33/W    22/W
BHK 062 030/049 027/055 033/063 036/062 037/060 035/056
    2/W 23/W    32/W    12/W    21/B    33/W    22/W
SHR 050 035/050 029/056 033/063 035/064 037/061 036/061
    4/T 56/W    62/W    12/W    21/B    22/W    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 1257 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MIDDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST IL. CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE LATER TODAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH
MILDEST READINGS SE OF I-70 AND WEST OF PEORIA AND SPRINGFIELD.
SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

A COUPLE OF MCS/S PASSED OVER CENTRAL AND SE IL THIS MORNING WITH
1ST MCS MAINLY GIVING RAINS OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF I-72 AND 2ND MCS
THIS MORNING GETING RAINS AS FAR NORTH AS KNOX...STARK AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. 3RD MCS WAS OVER CENTRAL MO. COOP OBSERVER IN MATTOON IN
CENTRAL COLES COUNTY MEASURED 1.65 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 8 AM AND
LIKELY OVER 2 INCHES BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME WATER IN THE
STREETS. AN URBANA AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
COLES... CENTRAL/SE SHELBY...SE MOULTRIE AND NW CUMBERLAND COUNTY
UNTIL 130 PM. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVIEST RAINS WERE FROM TERRE
HAUTE...TO ROBINSON TO OLNEY AND MOVING ENE. RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WERE HEAVY AT TIMES WERE ALREADY BREAKING UP OVER CENTRAL IL AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION BECOMES
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC KEEPS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS JUST WEST KNOX AND SCHUYLER
COUNTY BUT COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL IN SE
IL...SOUTHEAST OF I-70 NEXT FEW HOURS. HAD REPORT OF PEA SIZE HAIL
IN MATTOON AROUND 830 AM. 1000 MB AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL CO HAS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO CENTRAL MO AND FAR
SOUTHERN IL SOUTH OF I-64. 12Z MODELS LIFT WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTHERN IL/IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPS
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND MOIST DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH JACKSONVILLE DEWPOINT UP TO 61F. TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER 10 DEGREES WITH SOME SUNSHINE APPEARING LATER
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HUETTL

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR VSBYS AND IFR
CEILINGS 500-1K FT INTO MID AFTERNOON THROUGH 21Z/4 PM OVER THE
CENTRAL IL TERMINAL AS AN MCS WEAKENS OVER CENTRAL IL DURING THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG
I-72 TAF SITES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STAYED SOUTH OF I-72 THIS
MORNING AND HAVE PUSHED EAST OF IL INTO SOUTHEAST INDIANA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL IN HUMID
AIRMASS BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. HEATING AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL IL AT
MIDDAY. SSW WINDS 8-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND STRENGHTHEN
TO 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS AFTER 14Z/9 AM SUNDAY.
BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DEEPENING 996 MB
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CO WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO
NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL. LATEST MODELS DEEPENING STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TO 983 MB AS IT TRACKS NE INTO SOUTHEAST SD BY 18Z/1 PM
SUNDAY...WHILE LIFTING WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WI AND COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPROACHING WESTERN MO/IA EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HUETTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 247 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 07Z SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS TRACKING E/NE ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER 00Z MODEL DATA IS
NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS VERY WELL AT ALL.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHIFT THE PRECIP NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BY 12Z...HOWEVER LATEST RADAR LOOPS ARE NOT SUPPORTING
THIS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THINK A CONTINUED E/NE
TRAJECTORY IS MORE PROBABLE. AS A RESULT...HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN KILX CWA TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR. 04Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THINGS AND SUGGESTS THE NORTH MAY REMAIN LARGELY DRY AT LEAST
THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF
I-74 THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH THINK MODELS ARE TRYING TO PUSH BOUNDARY
NORTH TOO QUICKLY. END RESULT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS
THE BOARD WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...TAPERING DOWN
TO SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...TEMPS WILL BE HELD A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM COLORADO THIS
EVENING TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
IS LOST.

WINDY AND VERY WARM WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...AS MIXING COULD POTENTIALLY BRING
EVEN HIGHER GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUANCE FOR NOW...PENDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WAA...HIGH TEMPS WILL
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL SLIDE BY TO THE N/NW AND GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE S/SW...THINK POTENT MID/LOW-LEVEL
JETS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES INCREASING TO 400 TO 500 BY 00Z MON...WITH MOST OF
THIS INCREASE DUE TO SPEED SHEAR. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAST-MOVING AND CAPABLE OF BRINGING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS LINE OF
STORMS INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AFTER 21Z...THEN INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER 06Z.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS WILL EXIT CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER ON MONDAY. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
SUPPORT W/NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH...WHILE HIGH TEMPS DROP
BACK INTO THE 60S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALLOWING A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEMS TO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. A RATHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BEST
LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER WAVE APPROACHING
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1225 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

RADAR LOOPS SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SPREADING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AND RAPID REFRESH SHOWS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOST OF TODAY. OVERALL CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK AND I DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OTHER THAN LOWERING WIND SPEEDS
SLIGHTLY.

THE 12Z RUC INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S MAY NOT SPREAD MUCH
PAST OUR EXTREME SOUTH AND I WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH.  THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF
MIXING AND WILL LOWER WIND SPEEDS ALL AREAS JUST A BIT.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST AT THE MOMENT FROM ILLINOIS BACK TO KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. AT THE MOMENT THE MODEL THAT IS REFLECTING THE CURRENT
RADAR BEST IS THE HRRR. LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION TODAY IN REGARDS
TO POPS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...PROVIDING LIFT
ALONG AND WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER IMPULSES WILL PROVIDE
SUPPORT TO THE LIFT ALREADY BEING GENERATED BY THE WARM FRONT.

THE LIFT PLUS MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. MOS POPS AND THE HRRR FORECAST AGREE WITH THIS...SO FEEL NO
NEED TO CUT MOS POPS. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
AREA.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SPC FORECAST AGREE THAT SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD NOT OCCUR TODAY.

WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
FRONT...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED BACK HIGHS TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GENERALLY WENT BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ON ITS WAY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
KEPT LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH
CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WENT LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING RAIN. WENT ABOVE MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

REMOVED ALL POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FORCING IN THE
AREA. WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION...WENT ABOVE MOS FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE WINDY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
PRODUCE GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DECENT FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT FOR LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...AND BASED
ON EXPECTED TIMING WENT LIKELY POPS EXTREME EAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXTREME WEST DURING THE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON ONLY WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE
TAKEN MOST OF THE RAIN WITH IT AS IT HEADS EAST OF THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY LATE DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. LOW PRESSURE SET TO
TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
LIMIT MOISTURE AND FORCING ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...FOCUSING THE
BETTER LIFT FURTHER NORTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ISOLATED PRECIP THAT CAN MIGRATE INTO THE REGION WITH THE
BOUNDARY.

BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER WAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY EARLY FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS
WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAINTAINED HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TONIGHT.
WINDY SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE LATEST (3RD) WAVE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE
BASED ON THIS WAVE. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED TSMTS WILL PREVAIL AFTERWARD THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH (19Z)
BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GENERAL
TREND IS FOR MFVR TO DEVELOP (OR HAVE DEVELOPED) WITH POSSIBLE IFR
IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER RAIN. THIS WILL HOLD UNTIL AFTER THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN LOOK FOR GRADUALLY IMPROVING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH KLAF THE LAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
CONVECTION MORE SCATTERED DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY
LIFTS NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. HAVE MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

NEXT PROBLEM IN THE FORECAST IS THE WINDS FOR SUNDAY. WINDS BEGIN
TO PICK UP AT THE SURFACE BY SUNDAY MORNING AND GUST TO 30-32 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 333 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN: THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE MOST
CONCERNING PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH AMPLIFIED SEVERE THREAT FOR
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. OTHERWISE...THE ISSUES INCLUDE THE POPS FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE LOW PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA AND ANY
POTENTIAL WRAP AROUND.

TONIGHT:
DRYLINE WILL BE EVEN SLOWER TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR ALREADY IN
PLACE...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS JUST WEST OF AREA AT THIS
TIME. BELIEVE CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THESE TO CONTINUE AS
THEY MOVE EAST...WITH WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS LIKELY HAVING BETTER
INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNSET. GIVEN HODOGRAPHS...SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...WELL INTO THE EVENING. DRYLINE
SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUASI STEADY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GRADIENT WINDS. -HOWERTON

SUNDAY:
BETTER ALIGNMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO SLIDE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS FIRST
THEN THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE IS CONCERN OF STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING ANY WIND
HEADLINES RIGHT NOW...BUT THE NEXT FORECAST MAY DECIDE TO GO FORWARD
WITH IT. THERE MAY BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
EXITING LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
HIGH WITH THE MAJOR SOURCES OF INSTABILITY DIMINISHING. DID DECREASE
THE POPS SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY:
A SECONDARY WAVE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AT
500MB THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON MONDAY...YET HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE TO 850MB. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL AND POTENTIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PV DOES INDICATE A PIECE ENERGY MOVING WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER
MODELS VARY IN LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION. THUS
DECIDED TO WAIT ON CHANCES FOR NOW.

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY:
THE NEXT TROUGH WILL START TO DO MOST OF ITS DEVELOPMENT WHEN IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES FOR WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...HOWEVER  850MB
INDICATES THE MAIN SYSTEM TO STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...THERE IS INDICATION OF THE LOW PASSING THROUGH ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THUS KEPT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT TROUGH IN THIS EXTENDED IS A BIT QUESTIONABLE
WITH MODEL VARIATION IN THE TIMING...DEPTH AND EXACT LOCATION. THIS
COULD CHANGE ANY POTENTIAL IN POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO
CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE GOOD SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

VP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/

UPDATE...

12 UTC AND LATER RUC MODEL RUNS SUGGEST DRYLINE WILL BE EVEN SLOWER
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL
IMPACT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...BEST
INSTABILITY/WEAKEST CAP IS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS WITH CAP HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL/
SOUTHEAST KS. GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
SO FAR...MAY BE TOUGH TO BREAK CAP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT IN
VISIBILITY SATELLITE SOUTH/WEST OF ICT. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN
THIS AREA...CLEARLY ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/
SEVERE STORMS. BIGGEST THREAT TONIGHT IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 400 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...EAST TO HIGHWAY 99 IN
THE 00-04 UTC TIME FRAME...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED STORM RISK
03-06 UTC ACROSS CENTRAL KS EAST OF I-135. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE...WITH STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KRSL AT START. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
KSLN/KHUT/KICT...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO RAMP UP TOWARDS
0000 UTC...WITH 0000 UTC-06 UTC THE MOST ACTIVE AT KHUT/KICT/KSLN.
IFR CONDITIONS...LARGE HAIL AND 50KT+ WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE SEVERE STORMS. DRYLINE SHOULD ENTER THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING END TO PRECIPITATION AND LOSS OF
CEILING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED BEHIND DRYLINE.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  71  44  66 /  60  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      52  69  44  66 /  50  10   0  10
NEWTON          54  70  45  65 /  60  10  10  10
ELDORADO        57  71  45  67 /  70  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  72  45  69 /  60  10  10  10
RUSSELL         48  63  39  64 /  50  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      49  64  39  64 /  60  20  10  20
SALINA          52  69  43  65 /  60  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       52  69  44  65 /  60  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  74  47  68 /  50  50  10  10
CHANUTE         63  73  47  67 /  50  50  10  10
IOLA            63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  73  47  68 /  50  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 242 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.UPDATE...

12 UTC AND LATER RUC MODEL RUNS SUGGEST DRYLINE WILL BE EVEN SLOWER
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL
IMPACT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...BEST
INSTABILITY/WEAKEST CAP IS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS WITH CAP HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL/
SOUTHEAST KS. GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
SO FAR...MAY BE TOUGH TO BREAK CAP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT IN
VISIBILITY SATELLITE SOUTH/WEST OF ICT. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN
THIS AREA...CLEARLY ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/
SEVERE STORMS. BIGGEST THREAT TONIGHT IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 400 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...EAST TO HIGHWAY 99 IN
THE 00-04 UTC TIME FRAME...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED STORM RISK
03-06 UTC ACROSS CENTRAL KS EAST OF I-135. -HOWERTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE...WITH STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KRSL AT START. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
KSLN/KHUT/KICT...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO RAMP UP TOWARDS
0000 UTC...WITH 0000 UTC-06 UTC THE MOST ACTIVE AT KHUT/KICT/KSLN.
IFR CONDITIONS...LARGE HAIL AND 50KT+ WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE SEVERE STORMS. DRYLINE SHOULD ENTER THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING END TO PRECIPITATION AND LOSS OF
CEILING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED BEHIND DRYLINE.
-HOWERTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/

UPDATE...
THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REMOVE THE TORNADO WATCH ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING APPEARS ON TRACK WITH SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
AND TORNADOES STILL EXPECTED.

MWM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTED NORTHWEST AFTER THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
KCNU THROUGH 13-14Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF
THE DRYLINE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE AFTER 21-22Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO A SQUALL
LINE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND A PERIOD OF ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

MWM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE MORNING CONVECTION CHANCES...THEN
AN EXPECTED TORNADO OUTBREAK TOWARDS EVENING.

THIS MORNING:
CONVECTION OVER NRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING...AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS SRN KS...AND
SLOWLY VEERS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
MAIN CONVECTION LIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES ACROSS ACROSS SRN KS. SO WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH POPS DIMINISHING ACROSS SOUTH CEN AND CEN KS.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS AS CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDER WAY ACROSS NW KS. TIGHT
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGEST SOME WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE...SO CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS OKAY.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING:
MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE MID-DAY TIME FRAME.  CURRENT GFS AND
NAM/WRF SHOWS THAT THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WEST ALL WAY
BACK TO ALMOST KDDC...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
TO THE EAST OF IT...FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY SCATTER OUT FOR
AREAS WEST OF A KSLN-KICT LINE AS THE DRY LINE BEGINS TO PUSH EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING A KHYS TO KP28 LINE BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
CURRENT THINKING...SUGGESTS THAT WITH THE DRY LINE EXPECTED TO BE
FURTHER WEST...THAT STORM INITIATION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL CLOSER TO
00Z/SUN...AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE DRY LINE...JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE BEST COMBINATION OF BULK SHEAR (AROUND 85
KTS) AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KS...WITH A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KS.  SO EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM CEN KS
NORTH INTO NEB...WHILE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH MAY SEE MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE.

WITH THAT SAID...SHEAR (70-80KTS) AND INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 2000-3000
J/KG) ALONG THE DRY LINE...FURTHER SOUTH...LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
LONG LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADOES.
SO ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES. STILL THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG/LONG TRACK
TORNADOES LOOKS VALID...WITH LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...WITH 0-1KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 350-400 M2/S2 JUST W-SW OF KHUT BY
00Z/SUN. BUT ALSO THINK THE SUPERCELLS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THE REAL CONCERN WILL BE INITIATION A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNSET...WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TORNADOES STILL ONGOING AFTER SUNSET
BEING A REAL CONCERN...WHEN SPOTTING THEM IS MORE DIFFICULT. A FEW
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST TWO OR THREE LARGE SUPERCELLS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PLACEMENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. CURRENT
GUESS PLACES THE BEST CHANCE FROM KHUT SOUTH TO THE OK/KS LINE.

THE SUPERCELLS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER DARK...AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NEB HELPS PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO ERN KS.
THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF THE CONVECTION INTO ERN KS AND WRN MO.

SUN:
CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SERN KS FOR THE
EARLY PART ON SUN...AS MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS CEN KS.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CEN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON...
HEATING COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS CEN KS. SO WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE IN PLACE.

MON-TUE:
WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING THE AREA TO DRY OUT SOME. WILL ALSO TEMPS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH SUNNY SKIES.

REST OF THE EXTENDED:
DIDN MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOWING ZONAL FLOW AND SEASONAL TEMPS FOR TUE THROUGH THU.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
FOR THU AND THU NIGHT. SO WILL GO WITH POPS FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE FESTERING OVER
SOUTHEAST KS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE OVERNIGHT
PROGRESSES...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KICT-KHUT-KRSL-KSLN. COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOR
MAINLY KRSL...AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS SLAM INTO A RADIATED OUT
AIRMASS. ONLY WENT 2SM FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE PATCHY LIFR. STORM
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
IMPROVING CIGS. ANTICIPATING A FEW ISOLATED HIGH-END SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION BY 21Z SATURDAY...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  55  71  44 /  30  60  10  10
HUTCHINSON      73  52  70  44 /  40  50  10  10
NEWTON          75  54  70  45 /  30  60  10  10
ELDORADO        74  57  71  46 /  30  70  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  57  72  46 /  30  60  10  10
RUSSELL         73  48  66  42 /  40  50  20  10
GREAT BEND      74  49  67  43 /  40  60  20  10
SALINA          74  52  71  43 /  40  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  52  70  44 /  40  60  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     79  65  74  48 /  60  50  60  10
CHANUTE         78  63  73  47 /  60  50  60  10
IOLA            77  63  72  47 /  60  50  60  10
PARSONS-KPPF    78  64  73  47 /  60  50  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 303 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

WE CONTINUE TO TRACK THE THREE MCS MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THE
FIRST IS NOW OVER SE OH AND NE KY...AND HAS PASSED OUR FORECAST AREA.
THIS ONE CLIPPED THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH 0.02
INCHES OF RAIN AT THE BATH COUNTY AND ROWAN COUNTY MESONET SITES AND
0.08 INCHES AT THE FAIRVIEW IFLOWS SITE IN FLEMING COUNTY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IN LINE NOW OVER SW OH...SE IN AND N KY MAY ALSO
AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. THE TOPS OF
THIS MCS HAVE BEEN WARMING...LIGHTING HAS BEEN DECREASING...AS HAS
RADAR REFLECTIVITY. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS MAY ONLY CLIP
NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY...SO ANY RAIN WILL LIKELY AFFECT LESS OF OUR
AREA THAN THE PREVIOUS SHOWERS.

THE REMNANTS OF THE THIRD MCS ARE OVER IL...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO
DECREASING AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS WILL ONLY CARRY THUNDER CHANCES FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN THE
NORTH...THEN JUST GO ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO NORTH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH...AND THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH...WITH ANY SHOWER CHANCES ONLY IN
THE FAR NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ALL SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THIS IS NOT IN
AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

THIS FORECAST BEGINS WITH AN APPROACHING 50H SHORT WAVE PUSHING
AGAINST A SUBSTANTIAL BERMUDA HIGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORT WAVE EVEN AS IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE HIGH.
LOOK FOR THE SHORT WAVE TO SPLIT AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN GREAT
LAKES WITH THE SRN PORTION REMAINING IN ERN TX. THIS WILL ELONGATE
THE ENERGY AND WEAKEN IT AS IT PASSES THRU ERN KY. STILL EXPECTING
LIKELY TSRA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MON AND EARLY MON NITE. THEN
THE ENERGY LEFT IN TX WILL FORM A SFC LOW IN THE WRN GULF AND SLOWLY
EDGE EAST WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE TN
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE AREA BUT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP ANY
RAIN SOUTH OF THE KY/TN STATE LINE. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL
BNDRY WILL HANG UP ON THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST BUT EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THIS EVEN AS THE NEXT
WAVE FORMS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS BY FRI. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI NITE/SAT IN
A FASTER ZONAL FLOW AND DRAG ANOTHER FRONT THRU THE COMMONWEALTH
PROVIDING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS IN ADVANCE OF THE
STORMS ON MON WILL SOAR TO AROUND 80 BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S MON NITE. THEN THE COOLER AIR WILL KEEP HIGHS ON TUE ONLY IN THE
MID 60S. AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES WITH THE SRLY INFLOW THRU THE
REST OF THE WEEK... EXPECT TEMPS TO SHOW A WARMING TREND INTO THE
UPPER 60S ON WED...LOWER 70S BY THU AND UPPER 70S FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. PRECIP ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL ONCE AGAIN HOLD HIGHS TO
THE MID 60S FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOREHEAD AREA. ANY CONVECTION IN THE JACKSON
FORECAST AREA WILL END THIS EVENING.

ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...INCLUDING ALL TAF SITES...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE SME AND
LOZ TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...SBH








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 150 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

STILL 3 DISTINCT MCS MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THE FIRST IS NOW
AFFECTING S OH AND N KY...INCLUDING THE FAR N PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE SECOND...AND MOST VIGOROUS OF THE THREE...IS NOW MOVING
ACROSS INDIANA. THIS MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE THIRD AND FINAL OF THE THREE IS OVER IL.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE
FAR N PART OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING.

ALL SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH. THE HRRR IS STILL INSISTENT ON
RAIN THREAT BEING FURTHER SOUTH. THE HRRR BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE
THIRD SYSTEM DESCRIBED ABOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z...HOWEVER FEEL ONLY THE EXTREME NORTH HAS A
CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY THIS.

HAVE UDPATED NDFD FOR LATEST NEAR TERM TRENDS. WILL ISSUE A COMPLETE
NEW FORECAST PACKAGE FOR ALL 7 DAYS AROUND 3 PM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW 3 DISTINCT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS OR REMNANTS OF MCS. THE FIRST IN THE LINE IS CENTERED OVER
SW OH...SE IN AND N KY. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS COMPLEX...WHICH
DOES HAVE SOME LIGHTNING IN IT WILL AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE IN IL BORDER AND THE THIRD IN LINE IS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MO.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR SOUTH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND WITH EACH SYSTEM. THE 12Z NAM AND RUC SEEM
TO HAVE THE ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY TOO FAR NORTH...NOT BY MUCH...BUT A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IS IMPORTANT FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...HRRR....HAS BEEN HANDLING THE
CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL...BUT IS TOO FAR SOUTH. A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE BEST AT THIS TIME.

THE MCS HAVE BEEN MOVING ENE...FOLLOWING THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO N ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD...WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER
ERN KY...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT THE CONVECTION THREAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAY NEED TO HOLD ONTO A SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR
NOW.

HAVE UPDATED THE NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
IS VERY LIGHT...BUT NOTE 0.01 WAS RECORDED AT THE OWSLEY COUNTY
MESONET STATION JUST BEFORE 8 AM...AND SIMILAR RADAR RETURNS EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS BELL COUNTY. HAVE ALSO UPDATED HOURLY NDFD BASED ON
LATEST SURFACE AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM NOW. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST
A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY REACHING A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...
GENERALLY INCREASING THEM SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH AND EXPANDING THEM
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR TWEAKS GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED. AFTER A CLOSER
LOOK...THIS BOUNDARY IS PROBABLY THE WARM FRONT THAT WE HAVE BEEN
ANTICIPATING. WINDS ARE VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTH BEHIND IT AND SFC
DEW POINTS ARE ON THE RISE FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDITIONAL ISOLD SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOW FIRING ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. EXPENDED ISOLD POPS THROUGH THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...COVERING WHAT REMAINS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
AGAIN...BASED ON SFC OBS MOST ACTIVITY THROUGH DAWN WILL RESULT IN
NOTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN THAT JUST WETS THE GROUND. ONLY
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL ACTUALLY MEASURE...WHERE THE STRONGEST SHOWERS
PASS.

NEXT FEATURE IS COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
EASTWARD FROM IL INTO IN THIS MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH OHIO.
WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...MODELS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTH AND TAPERED SOUTHWARD FROM THERE. THIS PUTS THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE RAIN TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED TO ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTHWARD TO THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY...THOUGH EXPECT MOST IF ANY
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. DO NOT
SEE MUCH IF ANYTHING SOUTH OF HAL ROGERS. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS
MARGINAL AT BEST CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
NOW...CLOUDS AND ANY PRECIPITATION WE MANAGE TO SEE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER TODAY. BUT DECENT RIDGING ALOFT...CLEARING
SKIES AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL DRIVE TEMPS UP INTO THE
80S SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY BUMPED TEMPS UP JUST A TAD SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM A HIGH JUST EAST OF THE FL/GA BORDER...ACROSS THE CAROLINA AND
THEN BISECTING PA AND NY.  THERE WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR SIOUX CITY AND THEN EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER WS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS ST LOUIS TO
ARKLATEX. THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
EAST AND THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE FRONT MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY EVENING. AROUND HERE...A GENERAL RULE OF THUMB WHEN
SYSTEMS ARE TRYING TO MOVE INTO AN UPPER RIDGE...IS SLOWER IS
BETTER. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL SLOW THE FRONT DOWN A LITTLE. ONCE
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER
THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
A ZONAL PATTERN IS THAT SYSTEMS MOVE PRETTY FAST...AND SO TIMING OF
THE PRECIPITATION CAN BECOME DIFFICULT...HOWEVER THE TEMPERATURES
BECOME MORE CERTAIN AS THERE ARE NOT SUCH BIG SWINGS AS A FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD
START EFFECTING THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...ONLY MADE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOREHEAD AREA. ANY CONVECTION IN THE JACKSON
FORECAST AREA WILL END THIS EVENING.

ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...INCLUDING ALL TAF SITES...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE SME AND
LOZ TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...SBH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 413 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY. THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING AN PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. NO MONDAY IT WILL BECOME VERY WINDY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM MY LATE MORNING DISCUSSION. A
PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS (NOT SEVERE) WITH THE WARM FRONT
TONIGHT...DRY MIDDAY SUNDAY UNTIL MID EVENING...THEN THE FRONTAL
RAIN BAND WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE EVENING SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET BIFURCATES WITH PART OF IT GOING INTO OHIO
AND THE REST OF IT HEADED TOWARD MN/WI. THAT ALSO IS NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR CONVECTION HERE. IT IS NOT UNTIL MID MORNING SUNDAY THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE BIFURCATED LOW LEVEL JET EVEN SHOWS A SIGN OF
GETTING INTO THE I-94 REGION AND BY THEN IT IS WEAKENING. THE
PRIMARY CORE STAYS OVER WI/MI/IA THROUGH THE DAY AND SLOWLY
DEVELOPS NORTHWARD NOT EASTWARD. SO I EXPECT A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO HEAD NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MID MORNING BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE (NOT SURFACE BASED). THE HRRR RUC FROM
THE 16Z MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS NICELY. SO MOST OF THE RAIN FROM THE
WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM MONDAY.
THE MODELS AND SOUNDING SHOW NO SURFACE BASED CAPE AND ONLY 500 TO
1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE (FROM 800 MB LAYER). THUS I DO NOT
SEE MUCH OF SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT WITH THESE STORMS. JUST LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

ON SUNDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA AND SO WILL THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THERE IS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SUNDAY BUT
NO FOCUS SO I DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL BE SEEING MUCH IF ANY
CONVECTION IN THE GRR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THE SUN REALLY
CAME OUT TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 80 SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR CONVECTIVE "SHOW" IF ONE COULD CALL IT
THAT. IT TAKES UNTIL 2 AM FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE TO GET TO
I-31. WHILE FORECAST SHOWS 1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
OVER WI SUN AFTERNOON BY THE TIME THIS REACHES LOWER MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT IT IS LESS THE 500 J/KG. ON THE OTHER HAND WE DO
STILL HAVE SURFACE BASED CAPE SO AND A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET. GIVEN THE LOW CAPE VALUE LARGE HAIL SEEMS OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS BUT WITH WEAK CAPE ONE HAS TO EVEN
WONDER ABOUT THAT. SO I AM NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR SEVERE OUTBREAK
IN OUR CWA FROM THIS EVENT. JUST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPC`S OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AGREES
WITH THIS WITH A 15 PCT CHANCE OVER OUR NW CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

TRENDED POPS LOWER FOR MONDAY AND ALSO TRENDED COOLER FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  MODEL TRENDS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
MOVING THE SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.  THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN QUICKER CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI.  FROST AND FREEZING TEMPS
WILL BE A CONCERN UNDER THIS SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER.

NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT LATE WED NIGHT OR
EARLY THU.  THE FRONT THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH WITH OVER-RUNNING
PCPN LINGERING.  IT APPEARS THE CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THIS PCPN...SO I HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND LOWER
POPS NORTH.  THE EURO HOLDS ON TO PCPN RIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THE GFS
GOES DRY.  HAVE FAVORED THE DRIER GFS AS THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN WHAT THE EURO SUGGESTS.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLISH
WITH NE LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

MVFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES AT 17Z. HOWEVER THE
LOW CLOUD EDGE IS ERODING FROM EAST TO WEST TOWARD THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON
LONGEST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN (MKG) SO I BROKE OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AT
LAN AND BTL FIRST AND AZO AND GRR NEXT THEN MKG LAST.

TONIGHT THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR
WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA SO I TIMED THE STORM
THAT WAY THROUGH THE CWA. I EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THIS. ONCE
THE WARM FRONT IS NORTH OF HERE CIGS/VSBY WILL BECOME VFR. SKIES
MAY ACTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

IF NOT FOR THE COLD LAKE AND WARM AIR WE WOULD HAVE A GALE WARNING
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 40S AND AIR TEMPERATURES COMING OFF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA IN
THE 70S SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL NOT MIX THROUGH THE MARINE LAYER.
THAT CHANGES MONDAY ONCE THE STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. WE
MAY NEED GALES THEN...FOR NOW I AM GOING WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO MIDDAY MONDAY AND CALLING THAT GOOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT
PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT THROUGH WE DO NOT SEE A LARGE SCALE GENERAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD GET AROUND A HALF
INCH. THE COLD FRONT RAIN BAND SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...GENERALLY
AROUND A QUARTER INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE TO MANY PROBLEMS FOR
OUR RIVERS BUT COULD LOCALLY CAUSE ISSUES ON SMALLER STREAMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 123 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES. A WELL-DEFINED SHRTWV OVER CNTRL WI SUPPORTED A SCT
BAND OF SHOWERS FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO SRN WI. A VERY POTENT
UPSTREAM SHRTWV THAT WILL IMPACT WX OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT WAS MOVING THROUGH WRN AZ. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW
PREVAILED THROUGH UPPER MI AHEAD OF A LOW OVER NW MN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

TODAY...ANY LINGERING SCT PCPN OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA WILL
MOVE OUT DURING THE MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT DURING
THE MORNING...PER UPSTREAM OBS OVER MN. WITH SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 70 INLAND WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE MID 30S. WITH RH VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND
GUSTY WSW WINDS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES SAT
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE TEMPS/WINDS WILL BE
HIGHEST.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE SW CONUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE PLAINS...SFC LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER
NEBRASKA AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MORE TO THE NW WITH THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND PROMINENT RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKES. A LARGE AREA OF PCPN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC WARM FRONT AS STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND
TOWARD A LATER ARRIVAL OF PCPN INTO UPPER MI WITH THE STRONGER LIFT
CONFINED NEAR THE 850 MB WARM FRONT. THE EFFECTS OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH MAY LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TO THE NORTH ARE OFTEN POORLY HANDLED BY THE MODELS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
UPPER MI AND STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV NEAR THE
CWA...PER 00Z/14 GFS AND ECMWF...EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND STRONG
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSHING PWAT
VALUES TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 11C...WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA.
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT TSRA. GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR WITH THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME REVOLVE ARND TRACK OF LO PRES
MOVING THRU THE UPR LKS/ACCOMPANYING PCPN SHIELD/POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PCPN.

SUN NGT...00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COMMON SCENARIO FOR THE
LO TRACK...WITH THE LO TENDING TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE CWA TO
NEAR ERY BY 12Z MON AS THE SHRTWV SHEARS OUT IN THE CONFLUENCE ZN ON
THE NW FLANK OF THE SE RDG. DRY SURGE AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE
LOOKS TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE E HALF OF THE CWA MUCH OF THE NGT
BEFORE BACKWASH MSTR UNDER THE SHRTWV ITSELF ROTATES W-E INTO THE W
HALF 06Z-12Z MON. DESPITE SOME RATHER DEEP MSTR...INCRSG DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS RELATED TO COLD AIR SURGING INTO
THE AREA AS WELL AS H3-2 CNVGC WL TEND TO WORK AGAINST A SGNFT PCPN
EVENT. ALSO SINCE THE LO IS WEAKENING...SOME MODELS HINT THE LLVL
FLOW WL BE ONLY WEAKLY CYC. AS FOR PCPN TYPE...THE NAM/GFS FCST
SDNGS HINT THE INITIAL COOLING WL BE FOCUSED IN THE LLVLS BLO A
LINGERING ELEVATED WARMER LYR. THIS COOLING PROFILE WOULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA/SLEET BEFORE THE PCPN CHGS TO ALL
SN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER COLD AIR. BUT EVEN IF THERE IS
SOME FZRA...LIMITED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE/WARM GROUND
FM A WARM SUN AFTN SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SGNFT ICING.

MON...AS THE SHRTWV/SFC LO CONTINUE TO SHEAR TO THE E AND WEAKEN...
LINGERING BACKWASH MSTR WL SLOWLY DECAY WITH COMPLETE EXIT OF
QVECTOR CNVGC BY THE AFTN. BUT A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA LATE SUN NGT/MON
MRNG...MAINLY IN AREAS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W AND NCNTRL
IMPACTED BY THE UPSLOPE NLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY IF THE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER DYNAMICS INDICATED BY THE 00Z NAM/UKMET MATERIALIZE. BY THE
AFTN...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER ESPECIALLY THE W AS
MORE ACYC FLOW/DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THAT AREA ON THE SRN FLANK OF
BLDG HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. OTRW...A GUSTY N WIND WITH H925 WINDS
ARND 30 KTS WL MAKE THE DAY FEEL ALMOST LIKE MID WINTER.

MON NGT...LARGER SCALE PCPN WL BE OVER WITH DEPARTURE OF DEEP MSTR/
DYNAMICS. BUT SOME LK CLDS WL PERSIST IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP
OVER MAINLY THE E HALF UNDER CYC NLY FLOW...WHERE LLVL THERMAL TROF
WL RESIDE WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -10C PER THE GFS. OPTED TO RETAIN
SOME SCHC POPS FOR -SHSN IN THIS AREA AS WELL WITH TEMPS ALMOST COLD
ENUF FOR LES. IN FACT...THE NAM SHOWS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -12C.
EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS CLOSE TO THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE MOCLR WITH PWAT
NEAR 0.10 INCH/LGT WINDS CLOSER TO THE RDG AXIS.

EXTENDED...EXPECT A DRY...SEASONABLY CHILLY PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE
NGT WITH HUDSON BAY HI PRES DOMINATING. NEXT DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY
TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WED...BUT 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW RADICALLY
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR THIS DISTURBANCE...SO RELIED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE FCST. AFT SOME DRYING ON THU WITH HI PRES
FOLLOWING...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING ANOTHER DEEPER
LO THRU THE UPR MIDWEST TO END THE WEEK. IF THIS MODEL IS CORRECT...
UPR MI WOULD SEE SOME SGNFT SN. BUT SINCE THE GFS IS DRY WITH THE
SHRTWV TRACKING MUCH FARTHER TO THE S...WENT WITH MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM HAVE CLEARED ALL SITES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 5-7KFT DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE STRONGER WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS AT ALL SITES. THESE WINDS MAY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO DROP BELOW 12KTS UNTIL WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKE HOLD AROUND SUNSET. MID CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THEN...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS UPPER MI AROUND 12Z. FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW AT CMX AND SAW SHOULD BRING DOWN CIGS BELOW 1KFT
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL THAT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MI AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT SAW FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

SE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL BECOME SW TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. EXPECT A N TO NE GALE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF MAINLY
THE CENTRAL LK ON LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SHARPENING PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LO PRES AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO ONTARIO.
SHARP SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ENHANCE MIXING OF HIER WINDS TO THE SFC.
THE APPROACH OF THE HI PRES RIDGE WILL CAUSE DIMINISHING WINDS BY MON
NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU MID WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 221 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER TONIGHT OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SUNDAY. INITIALLY HAVE
SOME STRATUS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OVER THE EASTERN CWA...IN THE
WAKE OF THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIFTED THROUGH THE AREA
LAST EVENING. HRRR HAS THIS LIFTING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TWIN
CITIES AREA AND OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...BURNING OFF THROUGH LATE
MORNING. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. WILL TRIM POPS BACK TO SMALL CHANCE SOUTHWEST AFTER 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE LIKELY MOVING IN DURING THE EVENING THOUGH.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
60S TO SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

STRONG WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ATTENDANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. POWERFUL JET
SEGMENT NOSES INTO THE AREA BY 06Z AND SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WORK
INTO SOUTHWEST MN DURING THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AS IT LIFTS NORTH...WITH SOME HAIL
A THREAT LATER TONIGHT. ELEVATED NATURE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT
TORNADO THREAT DURING THE NIGHT.

SYSTEM SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND ALL MODELS TRENDING SURFACE
LOW/OCCLUSION MOVING SLOWLY EAST INTO EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BORDER
THROUGH 18Z-21Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE MAIN ACTIVITY LIFT INTO
CENTRAL MN EARLY SUNDAY WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN
TOWARD 18Z SUN WITH THE GFS SHOWING MAIN TROUGH AND 130 KNOT JET
NOSING LEADING TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH HAIL AND WIND A THREAT. SREF
CONTINUES TO POINT TO DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER EAST...AND WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...WONT INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING YET IN THE
EASTERN CWA.

COLD AIR MOVES IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE AT
LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING INTO CENTRAL AREAS.

LONGER TERM INDICATING MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS FASTER/MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. TRIED TO TIME IN 2 PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE TAF...THE FIRST BEING THE THUNDER
CHANCES WHEN THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES BETWEEN 03-07Z TONIGHT. BRIEF
IFR VIS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVERHEAD WITH MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN...AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WITH EMBEDDED IFR CEILINGS.
WORST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT INTO EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN HAIL. LOOK FOR
A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER THE WARM
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOMORROW.

KMSP...BEST TIMING FOR THUNDER TONIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 05/06Z
TONIGHT AND 09Z TONIGHT. SHOULD BE BREAK AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. HIGHLIGHTED THE EARLY ROUND WITH
A LITTLE MORE DETAIL AND LATER TAFS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TOMORROW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THE TAF.

.SUN...IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS -SHRA/TSRA.
.MON...LINGERING IFR/MVFR EARLY...THEN VFR MON AFTN. SNOW POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...VFR.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/CLF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 1245 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012


...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...


.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Today through Monday)...

A large trough continues to make landfall over the west coast with a
100+ knot jet streak helping dig it towards the Four Corners. It is
this primary trough that will be our focus for Saturday`s into
Sunday`s weather as it begins to lift through the Plains States.
Closer to home, a compact shortwave is noted lifting through the
northern Plains into Canada ahead of the main trough to the west,
with a weakly defined frontal boundary stretching southwest from it
in Minnesota through Iowa and eastern Kansas. Frontal boundary is
only notable this morning as it helps define the location of the warm
sector -where all the thunderstorm activity is- and the cold sector
-where the storms are not-. Ongoing thunderstorm activity in the warm
sector, currently stretched from central Oklahoma northeast through
Missouri into central Illinois, appears to owe its existence to the
moisture and warm air advection resulting from the persistent
southwest low level jet.

Previous days runs of the NMM-WRF and even the NSSL-WRF have done a
fine job with the handling of convection across our region of the
Plains, but recent 00Z from the 14th appeared to have some
initialization problems, and therefore don`t even have the current
activity this morning handled well. Conversely, the 01Z HRRR has
done a decent job of initializing overnight, and capturing trends
noted thus far this morning. NAM, and to a lesser extent the GFS,
both agree well with the HRRR through the periods that they overlap,
so a combination of these model runs have been used to guide today`s
forecast.

For today...thunderstorms will be ongoing this morning as the low
level jet continues to feed the needed ingredients for thunderstorms
across the region. Models have been hinting at, and latest radar
trends would agree, that the jet will become a little less focused
as we transit the sunrise hours, resulting in a broad warm air wing
of showers and thunderstorms developing from the current activity
across Oklahoma and Kansas. This activity would shift north through
the morning hours, likely residing in Nebraska and Iowa by this
afternoon. Have gone with likely POPs through the morning hours as a
result, while limiting POPs after noon to the chance category across
the northern half of the forecast region. Behind the warm wing of
convective activity a weak, but still present, EML should help cap
off new activity during the afternoon hours. So, what chance POPs
are in for the afternoon are more for lingering activity behind the
warm wing.

As we move towards tonight, attention for a significant round of
severe weather remains focused in areas just to the west, from
central Oklahoma north into the eastern half of Nebraska. As the
100+ knot jet streak rounding the base of the western CONUS trough
shifting through the Plains later tonight, it will bring a favorable
diffluent flow aloft to the dry-line across Kansas and Oklahoma this
evening, and while the instability from diurnal heating will be
fading some, there should be more than enough lingering to fuel all
manner of severe weather. Latest model runs continue to keep the
focus for the onset time of these KS-OK initiating storms after 00Z.
With growing confidence in the late onset of storms, have restricted
the likely POPs for the evening hours to areas west of Interstate-35,
after 03Z, as current initiation timing indicates that it might be
near, or after, midnight before storms shift into our region. All
modes of severe weather still look possible with tonight`s storms
given the abundant shear and helicity values, meaning large hail,
damaging winds, flooding rains, and isolated tornadoes will be
possible with any of tonight`s storms. However, the highest potential
for any of the severe weather looks to be roughly along the Kansas-
Missouri border and points along and west of Interstate-35, and is
where the risk of severe thunderstorms has been highlighted in the
forecast.

Sunday...storms may be ongoing in the morning hours again. Currently
trends indicate that left over activity from the overnight hours may
linger across Missouri through part of the daylight hours, though it
looks more likely that any left over storms will be cast off showers
from a more linear convective system moving from eastern Oklahoma
into Arkansas and southern Missouri as the cold front advances
across the Plains. Have continued to highlighting the thunderstorm
potential Sunday morning with likely POPs across the eastern side of
the forecast area, but have worked to quickly remove the POPs
starting in the afternoon. Otherwise, it will be windy ahead of and
behind the cold front shifting across Kansas and Missouri. It`s
likely that subsidence behind the front will produce enough clearing
of the skies to allow for deep layer mixing, which model soundings
suggest could be through at least 800mb. With multiple models
advising 850mb wind speeds of 45 to 50 knots, thoughts are Sunday
will be windy, and will likely need a wind advisory for the
mid-morning through afternoon hours.

Cutter


Medium Range (Tuesday-Friday)...

A more quiet weather pattern is expected for next week as more of a
zonal flow sets up over the central U.S. For Tuesday, an area of
high pressure will be over the Great Lakes region, resulting in
light southerly winds into the region and temperatures near seasonal
normal. Models show a shortwave tracking eastward across the
Northern Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. A few scattered showers
are possible across north central and northeast Missouri Wednesday
afternoon and evening as a cold front extending from the surface low
beneath the shortwave dips southward into the area. These showers
will clear out by Thursday morning as the shortwave progresses
eastward, however models are showing the frontal boundary becoming
stationary near the Missouri/Iowa border. For Thursday, with high
pressure over the southeastern U.S. and a second surface low just
east of the Rockies, southerly winds will help boost temperatures
above normal into the 70s. Depending upon where the stationary
boundary is located in the vicinity of the Missouri/Iowa border,
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon across extreme northern Missouri. Better chances for more
widespread precipitation look to be Thursday night and Friday as the
surface low and associated cold front progress eastward into the
region. Models show precipitation exiting east of the region by
Friday evening. These showers and thunderstorms will help to drop
temperatures a few degrees for Friday, but still looking at above
normal conditions.

ACH

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs...Showers and thunderstorms that have developed
west of the terminals this afternoon will remain to the west
although STJ may have a few thunderstorm in the VC through 19Z.
Otherwise...models depict a second area of thunderstorms developing
across southern Kansas that may lift into the VC of the terminals
for late this afternoon/evening best chance on timing is between
22z-01z. A third chance for thunderstorms will come in the overnight
hours as a line of thunderstorms is forecast to move through the
terminals. Due to uncertainty of the timing of this line have
included VCTS at 09Z at the terminals. Winds will be out of the
south between 15-25kt with gusts between 20-30kt through the TAF
period.

73

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO EAX










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 1235 PM MDT SAT APR 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

WE MADE A SECOND...MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST SO THAT IT CARRIES
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MILES CITY AND HYSHAM AREAS TOO. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE OBSERVED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. A
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND MILES
CITY STILL OVER 7000 FT AGL...BUT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE MENTION
OF SHOWER CHANCES. SCHULTZ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT SAT APR 14 2012...

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF MT...AND TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS BAKER. RADAR IMAGERY AT 15 UTC IS SHOWING
A BATCH OF RAIN HEADING NORTH OUT OF SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY...WITH
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS ACTIVITY TAKING IT INTO CARTER COUNTY
BY 17 UTC. THE 06 UTC GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AS
IT SHOWS A NOTABLE AREA OF 500-300 HPA Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THIS AREA DURING THE DAY. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EVEN EXISTS
TO HELP ALONG THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS LIKELY WHY RADAR IMAGES
SHOW SOME MODEST BANDED STRUCTURES TO THE RAIN. THE HRRR RUNS FROM
11 AND 12 UTC ALSO SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES
IT...AND HOW LONG IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. SOUNDINGS FROM
BAKER ARE NOT ESPECIALLY MOIST...SO WE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THAT FAR NORTH FOR NOW. AS FAR AS THE TEMPORAL QUESTION MARKS
GO...WE WILL TAKE SOMETHING OF A WAIT-AND-SEE APPROACH FOR NOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE DYNAMICS WILL BE WANING AFTER 00 UTC...BUT THE LAST FEW
HRRR RUNS DO LINGER SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN MT INTO THE EVENING.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN AND CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS DIURNAL HEATING LEADS TO A BIT OF INSTABILITY. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

NOTHING DRAMATIC TO ADVERTISE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT DEVIATING TOO FAR FROM SEASONAL NORMALS. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY. CYCLE REPEATS ITSELF ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WITH NEITHER WAVE ACTUALLY LOOKING THAT STRONG.
ONE THING OF INTEREST IS MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE...INDICATIVE THAT THE
LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.

ANOTHER WAVE ON FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AND CONTINUED TREND
FEATURED EARLIER IN THE WEEK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND LARGELY ISOLATED POPS FOR THE PLAINS. BOTH 00Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT BROADER RIDGING FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FOR
WARMER TEMPS AND LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE FOR
TEMPERATURES SINCE PATTERN MAY NOT AMPLIFY AS QUICKLY AND TRENDED
WITH DRIER POPS...BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BUT STILL
INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY TODAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
OVER WYOMING. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL FAVOR SHOWERS
FORMING ON THE NORTHEAST ASPECTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN MOVING
AWAY FROM THE PLAINS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE ISOLATED AND
LIGHT OVER THE PLAINS WITH LITTLE IMPACTS TO CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY. ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT
DECREASING CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KSHR IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. BORSUM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057 034/047 031/059 039/063 039/064 043/060 036/061
    2/T 25/W    41/B    12/W    21/B    23/W    22/W
LVM 052 029/041 027/056 034/060 037/060 038/055 032/057
    2/T 36/W    52/W    23/W    22/W    43/W    32/W
HDN 060 035/052 030/060 035/066 035/066 038/063 036/062
    2/T 24/W    41/B    12/W    21/B    23/W    22/W
MLS 064 035/052 030/058 036/065 037/065 038/061 038/060
    2/W 23/W    31/B    12/W    21/B    23/W    22/W
4BQ 060 032/055 027/057 034/065 036/066 037/062 037/061
    4/W 33/W    32/W    12/W    21/B    33/W    22/W
BHK 062 030/049 027/055 033/063 036/062 037/060 035/056
    2/W 23/W    32/W    12/W    21/B    33/W    22/W
SHR 050 035/050 029/056 033/063 035/064 037/061 036/061
    4/T 56/W    62/W    12/W    21/B    22/W    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 420 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE OBVIOUS CONCERN IS THE
EVOLUTION OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS.
IN SHORT...THE FIRST ROUND OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION IS IN THE
PROCESS OF EXITING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESSENTIALLY
BRINGING ROUND 1 TO A CLOSE. THESE STORMS RESULTED IN AT LEAST 3
UNCONFIRMED BRIEF TORNADOES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE...ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.
THE CONCERN NOW SHIFTS BACK TO THE FAR WESTERN-SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...AS CLEARING SKIES ARE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AREAS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST NEB DOWN ACROSS WESTERN KS. AS
A RESULT...WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS EVENT IS FAR FROM BEING
OVER.

PARAMETERS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
HIGH-END SEVERE...AS THE 110+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CURRENTLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO FAR WESTERN KS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF AT LEAST 50KT...AND
WITH LOW LEVEL 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...WITH 300-400+ M2/S2 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...WHICH COULD ONLY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE REFLECTIVITY
PROGS FROM LATEST HRRR...ALONG WITH 12Z RUNS OF 4KM WRF-NMM...ALONG
WITH LATEST RUC FIELDS...SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING. HRRR SUGGESTS A COMBINATION OF
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND QUASI LINEAR STORM MODES WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA LIKELY MOST UNDER THE GUN. ALTHOUGH HYDRO ISSUES SEEM TO BE
MINIMAL SO FAR...ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA ON TOP OF WHAT FELL EARLIER COULD LEAD TO
SOME ISSUES.

SO FAR...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR KS ZONES THROUGH 00Z IS NOT
PANNING OUT VERY WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTERFERING...AND
ALTHOUGH NEITHER AN IMMEDIATE CANCELLATION OR AN EXTENSION IS NOT
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WILL PROBABLY SEE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACTUALLY PICK UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO AROUND
987MB IN THE NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB AREA. SPEAKING OF WIND...A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY NEED AN ADVISORY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS STRONG WINDS INITIALLY ARE FROM THE
SOUTH...BUT THEN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. INSERTED A STRONG WIND MENTION INTO THE GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT WITH EVERYTHING ELSE GOING ON TODAY WILL
DEFER TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON THE NEXT WIND
HEADLINE...WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE MORE ROBUST THAN THE CURRENT
ONE.

AS FOR STORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT...ONLY HAVE 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES POST-06Z...AND ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE FREE OF SEVERE WEATHER BY THEN...COULD FORESEE A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS HANGING ON IN NORTHERN ZONES LATE INTO
THE NIGHT. SHOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT
SURGES IN...BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE CWA
FROM WEST TO EAST WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE
COMBINATION OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE
THE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FEEL COLDER THAN IT
MAY SOUND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. OVERALL FEW
NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH FORECAST BASED ON
A GENERAL BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.

STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY SUNDAY EVENING...A WIND ADVISORY MAY
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST AREAS...BUT
LIKELY NOT BEYOND 03Z AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW PULLS GRADUALLY
AWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT DRY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HEADING INTO MONDAY...LEFT THE MORNING DRY BUT HAVE
20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OUT OF SOUTHERN SD INTO NORTHERN NEB. NEXT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT QUICK MOVING WAVE PASSES BY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AND MAINTAINED 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM THURS INTO THURS NIGHT AS THE NEXT WAVE CROSSES THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW. BEYOND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS OF AT LEAST WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
PLAINS.

TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...HAVE MOST DAYS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S FOR HIGHS...EXCEPT FOR COOLER UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ON
MONDAY. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...COULD EVENTUALLY NEED TO INSERT
SOME FROST WORDING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S...ALTHOUGH BREEZES MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/

AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PLENTY GOING ON DURING THIS 24-HOUR
PERIOD. OF PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE IS THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND HAVE TEMPO GROUPS WITH A HAIL MENTION GOING TO COVER
THIS. DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIG
EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM WELL INTO THIS EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE. AS FOR WINDS...A GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST COMPONENT WILL
HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 26KT POSSIBLE. BY THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE PERIOD ON
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY AND INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 109 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN THINGS GETTING GOING IN KS ZONES A BIT
EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED AS EARLY LEAD-SHORTWAVE MOVED IN...THE
WELL-ADVERTISED HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
IS STILL ON TRACK. PDS TORNADO WATCHES ARE OUT CWA-WIDE...AND A
FEW STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE HAVE ALREADY EXHIBITED
DECENT LOW LEVEL ROTATION. AIRMASS NEVER REALLY HAD A CHANCE TO
TRULY DESTABILIZE WITH EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...BUT RUC MESO-
ANALYSIS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT 0-1KM SHEAR OF 25-30KT...1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE...AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND 500M...AS ALSO
EVIDENCED BY STORM CHASER WEB CAMS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SO MANY
STORMS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN ZONES AT THIS TIME THAT STORM SCALE
INTERFERENCE MAY BE KEEPING A HIGH END TORNADIC THREAT AT
BAY...ANY DISCRETE STORM WITH UNIMPEDED INFLOW WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL. THINKING AT THIS POINT THAT THERE COULD
BE AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT ROUNDS OF SUPERCELLS FIRING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA AND MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
CURRENT ACTIVITY ONLY BEING ROUND 1. ON A LESSER NOTE...WILL KEEP
WIND ADVISORY GOING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT CLEARLY SEVERE
CONVECTION IS MAKING THIS HEADLINE LOOK FAR LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN
USUAL.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PLENTY GOING ON DURING THIS 24-HOUR
PERIOD. OF PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE IS THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND HAVE TEMPO GROUPS WITH A HAIL MENTION GOING TO COVER
THIS. DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIG
EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM WELL INTO THIS EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE. AS FOR WINDS...A GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST COMPONENT WILL
HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 26KT POSSIBLE. BY THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE PERIOD ON
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY AND INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH TODAY/THIS EVENING AND THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

ALL IS QUIET CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CWA...UNFORTUNATELY IT WONT BE
STAYING THAT WAY FOR LONG. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PROFILER AND
SATELLITE DATA...SEEING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE WAVE THAT BROUGHT US PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT
CONTINUING TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES....WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS SLIDING EAST THROUGH SRN NV AND INTO AZ. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE...WITH
THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ROUGHLY ALONG THE OK/KS STATE LINE.

COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE
MODELS/FORECAST LIES WITH MODELS SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF
THE SFC DRY LINE INTO THE CWA...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT. THE BIG PICTURE REALLY HASNT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE SWRN CONUS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK...ENDING UP
ROUGHLY OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY THIS EVENING...WITH MODELS
SHOWING A MORE ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW REACHING INTO THE NEB
PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL
SEE THE SFC LOW DEEPEN...AND AS IT DOES SO...LOOKS TO CENTER
ITSELF OVER THE SWRN NE/NWRN KS/NE CO AREA...ALL THE WHILE PULLING
THE WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH. LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS SHOWING THE DRYLINE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING...THATS NOT CASE
ANYMORE...WITH LATEST MODELS NOW SHOWING THE BOUNDARY PERHAPS JUST
STARTING TO CREEP INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 00Z. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A WESTWARD SHIFT OF ACCOMPANYING PARAMETERS
/INSTABILITY-SHEAR-ETC/...AND THINKING LAST NIGHT WAS THAT
LOCATIONS NEAR THE WARM FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WAS UNDER THE GREATEST RISK. NOW THAT CONCERN
EXTENDS BACK WEST ALL THE WAY TO THE CWA BOUNDARY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES /THOUGH NC KS IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE WOODS/.

EXPECTING TO SEE PRECIPITATION START MOVING IN/DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO SUNRISE...AS
INCREASING MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AHEAD
OF/WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT.  ALL MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES OF
TIMING/LOCATION...SHOW COVERAGE EXPANDING AND SHIFTING NORTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY MAKING ITS WAY NORTH...CANT RULE OUT THAT SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ON THE SEVERE SIDE. NOT GOING TO BE
ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE WE CAN WAIT AND FOCUS SOLELY ON THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...GOTTA GET THROUGH THE MORNING TOO.

THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS SHIFTING
CLOSER...THE SFC LOW DEEPENING TO THE WEST...ALSO SEE THE A GOOD
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. LITTLE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY...AND HOW MUCH THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ITS
PROGRESS...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT LIFTING INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/BY THIS EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP S OF THE WARM FRONT/AHEAD
OF THE DRY LINE AS DEWPOINTS REACH NEAR 60 DEGREES...ESP IN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN...WITH VALUES NEAR 3000
J/KG STILL BEING SHOWN BY SOME MODELS. SHEAR WAS NEVER AN
ISSUE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR/IN EXCESS
OF 50-60KTS...AND WITH WINDS AT 850MB ALREADY INCREASING/NOSING BY
THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE
CONCERNING...WITH MODELS SHOWING WIDESPREAD VALUES RANGING FROM
25-40 KTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND MOST
IMPORTANTLY...STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES...AND HAVE INSERTED THAT
WORDING INTO THE ZONE FORECAST.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE THE DRYLINE /AND MAIN THREAT/ FINALLY STARTS TO
PUSH FURTHER EAST THROUGH AND OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT THE LOW POPS
GOING POST 06Z...BUT ITS QUITE POSSIBLE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
WONT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING...SOMETHING THAT CAN BE ADJUSTED ONCE WE
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THINGS ARE PLAYING OUT TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS...MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY...AND TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE CWA.
EXPECTING TO SEE MANY LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY FLIRT WITH WIND ADV
CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP...AND DECIDED TO GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS NC KS...WHERE THERE IS BETTER
MODEL/GUIDANCE AGREEMENT OF LOCATIONS REACHING CRITERIA. WILL BE
ANOTHER THING THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

LOOKING TO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST.  EXPECTING A COOLER AND BREEZY DAY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEING DRIVEN BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST THROUGH NEB INTO SD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE BEST OF SEEING
SHOWERS /INSTABILITY IS E/S OF THE CWA/...AND LOW POPS REMAIN
ACROSS  THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...BUT AGAIN IS POSSIBLE ESP SERN
LOCATIONS WONT SEE MUCH. HIGHS FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE
50S/60S...AND A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY. EXPECTING ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER COOL DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO CROSS THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE 50S/60S.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER...ACTUALLY NOT FAR FROM NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z TUESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW  WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATIONS TRAVELING
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA...THUS PRESENTING AN
OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH IS WHEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
BOTH SUGGEST A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING WITH IT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
EXIST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL PRESENT CONTINUED ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S AND LOW IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...BRYANT