Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/11/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

851 PM MDT TUE APR 10 2012

.UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY
AT THIS HOUR WITH THE REST OF THE CWA DRY AND HENCE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT. WITH THE MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW IN PLACE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL ADVECT FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THIS ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ADVECTION OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE
FRONT RANGE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH HELPS FROM DENVER CYCLONE.

.AVIATION...DENVER CYCLONE IN PLACE WITH S-SE FLOW AT APA/DEN AND
NW WINDS AT BJC. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT
AS CYCLONE BEGINS TO WRAP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE TERMINALS FROM
THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. TIMING FROM 00Z TAFS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD
IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS SO MINIMAL CHANGES PLANNED
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM MDT TUE APR 10 2012/

SHORT TERM...CUMULUS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL AS ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF
DENVER. LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
IN THIS AREA...LESS ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SOME CIN. LATEST RUC AND
NAM RUNS STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS
AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE FOR THIS EVENING...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL HOLDING ON TO SOME CAPE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLIES REDEVELOP ACROSS PLAINS WHICH WILL ADVECT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD TOWARD FOOTHILLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
MORE OF A DRIZZLE PROFILE THAT RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
DENVER. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW ALL OF PLAINS WITH AREAS OF FOG...AND
THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AFTER 06Z. MAIN CHANGE WILL BE TO GO WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE RATHER THAN RAIN SHOWERS. THOUGHT ABOUT INCLUDING
FOOTHILLS IN THE MUCK...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW WITH
NOT MUCH ADVECTION. WILL NOT ADD FOG OR DRIZZLE FOR FOOTHILLS. ON
THURSDAY... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OVER WEST COAST. THE LINGERING DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD BE
DISSIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD HELP TO
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. CURRENT
CHANCE POPS SEEM ON TRACK FOR NOW. A COUPLE OF ITEMS OF CONCERN.
FIRSTLY...THERE IS SOME THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG URBAN CORRIDOR
AND PALMER DIVIDE WHERE MODELS GENERATE CAPES CLOSE TO 1500 J/KG. SO
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. FURTHER
EAST...AIRMASS LOOKS A BIT TOO STABLE...WHICH COULD LIMIT STORM
THREAT. BUT WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER IN CASE BOUNDARIES
ARE SUFFICIENT TO HELP POP SOME STORMS. NEXT CONCERN IS THE INCREASE
IN WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WILL HOIST A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE VALLEYS FROM NOON THROUGH 8PM. SOME
QUESTION FOR SOUTH PARK AS THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR STORMS. THIS
MAY INCREASE THE RED FLAG THREAT WITH THE OUTFLOW CONCERN FOR
OUTFLOW WIND. ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING BUT NOT THE MAIN
CONCERN.

LONG TERM...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS GOOD. AVAILABLE ENERGY WILL BE
DIMINISHING AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO ANY GUST FRONTS TO KEEP THINGS
GOING IN DESPITE THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH COOL MOIST AIR POOLING EAST OF A DEVELOPING DRYLINE.
PROBABLY TOO COOL FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA...DROPPED HIGHS A BIT
NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER DUE TO LIKELY CLOUD COVER THROUGH MIDDAY.
WEAK LIFT MOVES IN BY FRIDAY...STILL PROBABLY A BIT STABLE BUT
I WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION.

THE BIG EVENT IS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WEST THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT...BUT
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THE FLOW. LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE HAD A CLOSED LOW THAT TAKES 2-3 DAYS TO MOVE
FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...DUMPING SEVERAL
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
TRACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE ENERGY
IN THE TROUGH MORE. SOME OF THE ECMWF RUNS HAVE PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN A SHORTER DURATION EVENT...BUT THE
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN TO HAVE THE SECONDARY JET STREAM SPLIT OFF THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH WHILE THE NORTHERN PART PASSES OVER
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART BEING SLOWER AND
PRETTY FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON NORTHERN COLORADO. THE
SLOWNESS OF THE GFS SEEMS EXTREME GIVEN A LARGER SCALE PATTERN
WITHOUT DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING...THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME SPLITTING OR WOBBLING OF THE LOW. CANNOT DISCOUNT
SOME KIND OF WOBBLY LOW BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT WHAT
SEEMS LIKE THE UNLIKELY GFS SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP US IN THE RIGHT
SPOT FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR 60 HOURS. ESRL/PSD REANALYSIS
PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...BUT PRETTY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH. THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD HAVE A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LITTLE OR NOTHING
AFTER THAT. WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A CLOSED LOW TO THE
SOUTH...WOULD STILL GIVE HEED TO THE CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION THAT COULD LAST A WHILE. EVEN THESE SOLUTIONS COULD
GIVE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER A LONG TIME. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...PRETTY WARM FOR MUCH SNOW IN DENVER. MODEL
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SOMEWHERE AROUND 5-6
THOUSAND FEET WHICH COULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF ANY SNOW WITH
A WARM GROUND AND AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS TIME.

BOTTOM LINE...FOR NOW NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST...WILL RAISE
THE POPS A BIT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH IS THE
MOST LIKELY TIME.

AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WIND TO GRADUALLY DECREASE...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AS DRAINAGE PATTERN DEVELOPS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP AS WELL AS SOME DRIZZLE. COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS FROM
10Z-15Z AT AREA AIRPORTS...AFFECTING MAINLY DIA. CHANCE FOR STORMS
AFTER 18Z...MAINLY ALONG FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL AS
AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING IN
TAFS FOR NOW. POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THOSE STORMS
AFFECTING THE AREA AIRPORTS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ211-213-
214.

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

451 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS TODAY LIE WITH VERY DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...SHIFTING TO THE POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. A COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...AGAIN MAKING COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A FOCUS. THEN THE
PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A WARMER AND MUCH MORE ACTIVE ONE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED ON MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
EASTERN NOAM...WITH A FEW CLOSED UPPER LOWS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
EMBEDDED IN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS IN PLACE
OVER WESTERN NOAM...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST NORTH TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A LARGE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WAS OFF THE WEST COAST. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NOAM WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN COOL DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT THEN THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL FORCE THE RIDGE
EASTWARD...BRINGING A LATE WEEK WARM UP AND ALSO OPENING UP THE GULF
FOR MOISTURE TO FLOW NORTHWARD. THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PRESS EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MAINLY SUNNY TODAY OTHER THAN A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WITH VERY
DEEP MIXING UP NEAR 700 MB NOTED ON AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS. THIS ENABLED
THE VERY DRY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS
FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN...ALSO DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME
AIRPORT OBS OCCASIONALLY REACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
GUSTS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO PROMPT ISSUANCE OF A SHORT-FUSE
WIND ADVISORY. TEMPS ALOFT WERE SLOWLY COOLING...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS AND DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES BROUGHT ANOTHER MILD DAY
TO THE CWA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 60S. RED FLAG WARNING
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
FALL.

TONIGHT...AS STRONG...COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT...KEEPING WINDS GOING EVEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TRIES TO DECOUPLE. RUC HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER OVER
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...SO HAVE SOME
CLOUDS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF CWA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. BEHIND A WEAK COLD FROPA...850 MB TEMPS
DROP TO WELL BELOW 0C LATE TONIGHT AND COLD LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
VALLEY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ADDING IN
KANE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES. NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARD SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...BUT DESPITE THIS AND WINDS BEING LIMITING
FACTOR TO HOW FAR TEMPERATURES FALL AND PRECLUDING FROST
DEVELOPMENT...STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO NEAR FREEZING FOR THE WARNING AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA...EXPECTING LOW TO MID 30S...WITH UPPER 30S IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.

TUESDAY...WITH LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO OUR NORTHWEST...SLIGHTLY
WEAKER BUT STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER BREEZY
AND DRY DAY WITH DEEP MIXING TO OR ABOVE 800 MB. TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C AT H85 WILL TRANSLATE TO BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID
50S SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SOME MORE STOUT DIURNAL CU OR STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR NE IL...AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THIN LAYER CLOSE TO SATURATION AT TOP OF
MIXED LAYER.

WILL LIKELY NEED FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOL DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE
LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT CHICAGO URBAN
CORE...WITH UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS. TO REDUCE
CONFUSION...KEEPING IT DAY BY DAY WITH FREEZE HEADLINES SO MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL LIKELY ISSUE A PRODUCT OVERNIGHT FOR TOMORROW NIGHT`S
EXPECTED FREEZING CONDITIONS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP WINDS GOING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER TO AREA. SHOULDNT BE MUCH WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AWAY
FROM THE LAKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S DUE TO MODEST WARM
ADVECTION...BUT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER...IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. DESPITE WARMING ALOFT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...IT LOOKS TO BE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO
DECOUPLE...LEADING TO VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. THUS WENT BELOW MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT IMMEDIATE CHICAGO AREA AGAIN. FREEZE HEADLINES CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY...TURNING THE LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW SOUTHEASTERLY. ALONG WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ADD ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES TO FORECAST HIGHS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW 60S
SOUTH. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OR A LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP THE ILLINOIS
LAKEFRONT COOLER...CURRENTLY EXPECTING LOW 50S. SKY WILL START OUT
SUNNY...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY FILTERING IN DURING
AFTERNOON FROM SYSTEM WELL BACK TO OUR WEST.

EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A TRANSITION TO A MILDER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DOES INCREASE WITH TIMING AND DETAILS DURING THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTING OFF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO OUR EAST. FARTHER WEST...BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IS DEPICTED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER JET
STREAK THAT EJECTS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN
DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ECMWF AND GEM ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN OUR
DOMESTIC MODELS WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS AND THIS IS PREFERRED GIVEN HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING SURFACE HIGH SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AT BAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND HAVE THUS TRIMMED POPS THERE ALONG THE
LINES OF THE GEM WHICH IS BETWEEN THE DRY ECMWF AND MORE MOIST GFS
IN TERMS OF PRECIP COVERAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND
UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH DEGREE OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...THOUGH WEAK WAVE AND WARM FRONT SHOULD
DEVELOP INTO IOWA/MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY NIGHT PER GEM SOLUTION. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT SOLID CHANCE POPS WITH A FEW PERIODS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. SECOND/STRONGER UPPER WAVE LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINTAINING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN EVOLUTION OF
DETAILS OF SURFACE PATTERN AND TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS
IS STRONGER/MORE CLOSED WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH
THE INITIAL WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN
SECOND LOW TAKING A MORE EAST/SOUTH TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. ECMWF...WITH A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE...HOLDS THE SECOND LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY...WITH A LATER COLD FROPA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO
PREFER A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...AND A POTENTIALLY GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER LOCALLY. WIDE-OPEN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIALLY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD...WITH 12Z GEFS INDICATING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO.

FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP THREAT POTENTIALLY
CLOSE WHILE COOLER/STABLE SURFACE AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE CWA IN
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

RATZER

.FIRE WEATHER...
352 PM CDT

RED FLAG CRITERIA IS CURRENTLY BEING MET RATHER EASILY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY AT SUNSET...BUT AM
CONCERNED SOME AREAS COULD BE MEETING OR AT LEAST VERY CLOSE TO
CRITERIA STILL AT 7 PM...SO WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING ANOTHER HOUR UNTIL 8 PM.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE TAFOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEEP MIXING OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR FROM ABOVE H7 WILL KEEP WIND
GUSTS UP THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS FALL OFF OVERNIGHT
AFTER SUNSET...AROUND THE 0030 HOUR TO CLOSE TO 0100. DIURNAL VFR
CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN
INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN STRATO-CU FIELD ACROSS MN AND WI WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AS IT SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...MAYBE CLIPPING THE EASTERN ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN BORDER
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW WHEN WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP...AND THE CHANCES FOR A
SCT TO BKN VFR CIG TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH INCREASE BEYOND THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHEA

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

MTF

.MARINE...
202 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY. THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY LATE WEEK THE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THESE WINDS APPEAR TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS COMING WEEKEND.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...RED FLAG WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.

FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...2 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.

IN...RED FLAG WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8 PM
MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

353 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A TRANSITION TO A MILDER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DOES INCREASE WITH TIMING AND DETAILS DURING THE PERIOD.

RATZER

.FIRE WEATHER...
352 PM CDT

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* W-NW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON

SHEA

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

SHEA

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS

SHEA

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

MTF

.MARINE...
202 PM CDT

KJB

FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...2 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.

IN...RED FLAG WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8 PM
MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

315 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A TRANSITION TO A MILDER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DOES INCREASE WITH TIMING AND DETAILS DURING THE PERIOD.

RATZER

.FIRE WEATHER...
1040 AM CDT

CURRENT FIRE WX HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE BECOMING GUSTY AND DEW POINTS ARE DROPPING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA AS MIXING COMMENCES THIS MORNING. I
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPEAR THAT THEY WILL DROP BELOW 20
PERCENT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* W-NW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON

SHEA

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

SHEA

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS

SHEA

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

MTF

.MARINE...
202 PM CDT

KJB

FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...2 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.

IN...RED FLAG WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7
PM
MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY
IS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY
IN UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

300 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

AFD

SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

TUESDAY...WITH LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO OUR NORTHWEST...SLIGHTLY
WEAKER BUT STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER BREEZY
AND DRY DAY WITH DEEP MIXING TO OR ABOVE 800 MB. TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW 0C AT H85 WILL TRANSLATE TO BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID
50S SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SOME MORE STOUT DIURNAL CU OR STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR NE IL...AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THIN LAYER CLOSE TO SATURATION AT TOP OF
MIXED LAYER.

.FIRE WEATHER...
1040 AM CDT

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* W-NW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON

SHEA

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

SHEA

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS

SHEA

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

MTF

.MARINE...
202 PM CDT

KJB

FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...2 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.

IN...RED FLAG WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1224 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

THIS MORNING:
THE SURFACE MESO LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 10Z AS MOISTURE IS PULLED
NORTHWARD TO THE MESO LOW CIRCULATION. CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL ENHANCE THE FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER GIVEN THIS FORECAST THINKING.
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE HOW LONG AND WHERE THE
STRATUS/FOG WILL PERSIST. THE RUC/HRRR/NAM ALL INDICATE A FAIRLY
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST KEEPING THE STRATUS/FOG LOCKED IN PLACE ALL
MORNING ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR.
BY NOON...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE AT THE EDGES...LEAVING A
COOL POCKET SOMEWHERE IN WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON:
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...THE STRATUS WILL ERODE AT
THE EDGES LEAVING A COOL POCKET AND HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS USING THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS AS GUIDANCE.
AS FAR AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE CONCERNED...THERE IS A FAIRLY LOW
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL BE GOING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTH OF
THE MESO LOW...DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL OCCUR AND
DIFFERENTIAL INSOLATION WILL AID IN INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS. SHORT
TERM MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT A PRETTY ROBUST AREA OF CONVERGENCE AT
THE SURFACE BY 21Z NEAR THE KS-OK BORDER SOUTH OF MEADE, KS. WITHIN
THIS AREA 1700-2200 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL DEVELOP TO GO
ALONG WITH 40-50 KTS OF WIND SHEAR MAGNITUDE IN THE 0-6KM AGL LAYER.
SURFACE BASED STRONG/SVR STORMS SHOULD FORM IN THIS ENHANCED AREA OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KS-OK BORDER WHERE THESE
INGREDIENTS OF MOISTURE, LIFT, WIND SHEAR, AND INSTABILITY WILL COME
TOGETHER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STORM MOTION...THE DURATION OF
CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD BE LIMITED IF THEY EVEN
DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH. WILL BE KEEPING THE POPS FAIRLY LOW 20-30
PERCENT ALONG THE OK BORDER GIVEN THIS THINKING.

TONIGHT:
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL AID IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH THE MESO LOW CIRCULATION REDEVELOPING BACK TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WILL BE ADDING IN AREAS OF FOG TO THE GRIDS ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH BELOW THE MID 50S
AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES UPWARD USING THE LATEST
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ADVANCING EASTWARD
AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS TROUGH
PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LONG
WAVE TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, SOME WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES THAT WILL SERVE TO
LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, RESULTING IN
A CONTINUED SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL WEDGE FROM THE
NORTH AND ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION OVER THE REMNANT COOL POOL OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUDS, ALONG
WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN. THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL BE RATHER STABLE SO THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF KANSAS
NEAR ELKHART WHERE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ELKHART ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY AFTER SOME WEAKENING TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
NEGATIVE TILT FASHION BY THURSDAY AS THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL
HANGS BACK NEAR THE WEST COAST. A REMNANT LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL WITH
STRATUS MAY BE LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, AND THIS
MAY LIMIT THE BREADTH OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER,
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING
HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE.
KEEP IN MIND THAT DEVELOPING STORMS COULD MOVE INTO STABLE AIR AND
FIZZLE IF THE WARM SECTOR IS NOT BROAD ENOUGH. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND DRY BEHIND THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE QUITE MILD FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SINCE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH 15 KT SOUTH WINDS. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH OR FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THEREFORE, THE DRYLINE WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OR
CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN OR EAST OF A LINE
FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO ENGLEWOOD. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE BEHIND THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. AGAIN, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM AT MID-LEVELS, THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE
CITY TO ENGLEWOOD, WITH MINIMAL CHANCES IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE MILD IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ONCE AGAIN
WITH LOWER TO EVEN MID 60S EXPECTED GIVEN THE 60-65F DEWPOINTS AND
10-15KT SOUTH WINDS. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD AT LEAST WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S, BUT SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS BY THIS
TIME MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALL THE MODELS KEEP THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WITH CONTINUED
RICH GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
THIS TIME, THERE IS OF COURSE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS AS WELL AS SURFACE FEATURES.
BUT GIVEN THIS REGIME, THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THESE COULD ALSO BE SEVERE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DDC
AND GCK TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BREAKING
AWAY TO VFR CEILINGS AOA030 BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HAYS
TERMINAL WILL REMAIN AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA060. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 52 61 51 / 20 20 30 40
GCK 66 51 61 51 / 10 10 30 40
EHA 73 52 62 53 / 10 20 30 50
LBL 74 53 63 52 / 20 20 30 50
HYS 70 46 64 48 / 0 10 10 20
P28 71 53 67 50 / 30 30 20 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA 42

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

745 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

DENSE FOG HAD MOVED INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS, THE DENSE
FOG IN AREAS FURTHER EAST IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AREA.
CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BASED
ON SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT AND REPORTS OF FOG. AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF, STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY IN THIS AREA OF CENTRAL
KANSAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

ON THE NORTH AMERICAN SCALE...A RIDGE AXIS IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE
EXTENDED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. BROAD CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW
AND ATTENDANT LOWER HEIGHTS PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. THIS RESULTED IN ANOMALOUSLY LOW MID
TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES (PARTICULARLY 700MB) ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH -10 TO -15C COMMON PER
09/00Z RAOBS. AT 850MB THE 09/00Z OBSERVATIONS REVEALED A LARGE,
COOL AIRMASS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
850MB TEMPS WERE MODERATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT
STILL FAIRLY COOL WITH +7 TO +10C FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WERE
DEVELOPING WITHIN A MESOSCALE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S WERE FOUND AS FAR NORTH AS BEAVER, OKLAHOMA AS OF 08Z.
THIS MOISTURE WAS CONTINUING TO ADVANCE NORTH INTO A REGION OF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A SURFACE MESO LOW WAS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO NEAR LAMAR PER 08Z
OBSERVATIONS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH 16Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AT
GCK/DDC. IFR/LIFR CIGS COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT
GCK/DDC. IFR CIGS AND VISBYS MAY RETURN LATER TONIGHT AT GCK/DDC
AS THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN MOIST ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ063>066-
077>081-087>090.

UPDATE...FINCH
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

702 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 52 61 51 / 20 20 30 40
GCK 66 51 61 51 / 10 10 30 40
EHA 71 52 62 53 / 10 20 30 50
LBL 74 53 63 52 / 20 20 30 50
HYS 70 46 64 48 / 0 10 10 20
P28 69 53 67 50 / 30 30 20 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ061>064-066-074>081-084>090.

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

413 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

...UPDATED THE SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS MOISTURE
SLOWLY ADVANCES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO COOL AIRMASS. THE 11-3.9 MICRON IR LOOP WAS
CONFIRMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG OVER THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE RISING INTO THE 50 TO 54F
RANGE ON LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS A DDC-GCK LINE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AT GCK AND DDC SO THE STAGE
IS BEING SET FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. ALL THE SHORT-TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG, SO WILL BE
LOWERING THE VISIBILITY DOWN INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY FOR A FEW
HOURS ROUGHLY 11-14Z AT GCK AND DDC. THE CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO
RISE THROUGH IFR DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
STRATUS FINALLY ERODES ENOUGH TO SCATTERED/EROSION OF CEILING BY
AROUND MIDDAY. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 03Z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 52 61 51 / 20 20 30 40
GCK 66 51 61 51 / 10 10 30 40
EHA 74 52 62 53 / 20 20 30 50
LBL 76 53 63 52 / 20 20 30 50
HYS 70 46 64 48 / 0 10 10 20
P28 69 53 67 50 / 30 30 20 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ061>064-066-074>081-084>090.

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1251 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL SLIDE DOWN TWRDS MVFR DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS PATCHY FOG
SETTLES IN. THIS IS XPTD TO LAST THRU SR BEFORE LIFTING. VFR WX
THRU THE DAY TDY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

UPDATE...
WK AND DIFFUSE CD FNT SAGGING TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR...MARKED BY
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LT NLY WINDS ACRS CNTL LA COMPARED
TO SRN LA. A CLUSTER OF WHAT IS NOW JUST SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO E CNTL TX. THIS CLUSTER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS SKIRT THE FAR NW/N ZONES LATE THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLT CHC FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT RESIDUAL MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVER THE SRN/COASTAL ZONES. WK
FNTL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING...AND THE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS THOUGH
WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES...MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND WIND GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS FINE...WITH UPDATES ALREADY SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ARKANSAS RIDGES SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. A STATIONARY COLD FRONT...EXTENDING THROUGH
DALLAS THROUGH ALEXANDRIA...MARKS THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE DOME.

THE ARKANSAS DOME WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...PUSHING STALLED COLD FRONT TO THE COAST.

RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT...AND REMAIN PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED...DUE TO PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY COOL FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS AS WELL. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE DRIER AIRMASS
CURRENTLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOUND
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS.

DISCUSSION...FORECAST WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH
SOME SREF AND GFS INCORPORATED TO SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE COOL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...SHOULD GIVE THE
FRONT A LITTLE MORE PUSH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES AS THIS WILL BE JUST
PAST MAX HEATING AND THIS AREA HAS THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE COLUMN. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW CINH
CONTINUING TO ERODE AS WELL.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETUP
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE AREA WILL
BRING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. THE MOSTLY LIKELY DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH CASES LIKE THIS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES DESPITE THE WEAK FLOW REGIME. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL STILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE QUITE
WARM AS A DEEPENING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO RISE
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE...HOWEVER MOST
WILL BE DRY.

MARINE...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
DRY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 82 62 82 61 80 / 20 10 40 30 30
KBPT 81 62 82 60 81 / 20 20 30 20 30
KAEX 81 59 80 57 75 / 20 10 50 30 30
KLFT 82 61 81 60 78 / 20 10 40 30 30

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

953 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY,
MILDER WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWEAKED FORECAST BASED ON RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA, ALONG
WITH RECENT HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT. THESE SHOWED A COLD UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PROVIDING INSTABILITY
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

RECENT SURFACE DATA SHOWS PRECIPITATION, NOW SNOW SHOWERS, HAS
BEEN QUITE LIGHT, AND THIS CAN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SO SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL. DAYTIME SURFACE LAYER HEATING SHOULD SPARK AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON, WITH AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS.

MADE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES, HENCE MAINTAINED FREEZE
WARNING OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 15 DEGREES COLDER
THAN NORMAL, USING LATEST NAM AND SREF GUIDANCE.

FORECASTED PEAK WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. PEAK WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PER NAM MODEL PROFILES.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER OHIO WILL DECREASE AND WIND WILL LIGHTEN
ON WED NIGHT. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST...AND CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND PERHAPS AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH A FREEZE
WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THURSDAY...AND RETURN
TO NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE MOVING TO EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WARM AIR OVERSPREADS REGION ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS BY LATE DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPECT CWA TO BE IN WARM SECTOR SUNDAY...BUT KEPT MAX TEMPS ABOUT
5 DEGREES COOLER THAN HPC GUIDANCE. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY
MONDAY AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS REGION WITH CHANCE OF
RAIN FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON
MONDAY AGAIN KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE.

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION WL MAINTAIN MVFR...OR NR MVFR
CIGS AND SCT --SHSN INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WL
RESUME AS TEMPERATURES REACH CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS DURING THE
AFTN...BUT ALL CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ABOVE THE VFR THRESHOLD AS THE
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD RISES.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRES WL THEN CONT GENL VFR INTO SATURDAY. WARM, MOIST
ADVCTN IS THEN FORECAST TO INCRS MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE SATURDAY. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT WARM SURGE...BUT A
BETTER RAIN/RESTRICTION CHC CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AN APPRCHG CDFNT
EARLY IN THE NEW WORK-WEEK.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ001.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021>023-041.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

538 PM EDT MON APR 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT, MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. COLD WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY, AND COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND MENTION THUNDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PER BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE, SATELLITE, AND RADAR DATA, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WINDS CAN GUST TO 35 MPH.

SPC HAS SUGGESTED THUNDER CAN DEVELOP, BUT LOWLEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TOO MEAGER TO INITIATE THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT,
WHERE SURFACE LAYER TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING MAY INDUCE A
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT NO ACCUMULATION DUE TO
INITIALLY WARM GROUND.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AS COLD UPPER LOW PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

RESULTING SURFACE LAYER INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE LIFT WILL
CAUSE SHOWERS TO BE MORE NUMEROUS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND I-80
CORRIDOR. HAVE ADDED CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING LATE NIGHT
PERIODS WHEN SURFACE LAYER TEMPERATURES GO BELOW MID 30S.

SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES, FORECAST WAS BASED ON RECENT BLEND OF GFS,
NAM AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT WHICH SHOWED DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEARLY 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES
CAN GO BELOW FREEZING.

BY THURSDAY, INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
SUBSIDENCE TO END REMAINING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE
CLOUDS BY DAYTIME THURSDAY. HENCE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PERHAPS ONLY 5 AND 8 DEGREES COLDER
THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS RELATIVELY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AS THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD WITH MINUTE
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORTWAVE STRENGTH WITHIN THE PATTERN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS HOWEVER...DOESN`T SEEM TO IMPACT THE MODEL PARAMETERS
TOO MUCH AS THE STRONGER ECMWF STILL KEEPS THE REGION DRY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

THERE IS GREATER MODEL SPREAD TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO BREAK THE 500HPA
RIDGE DOWN. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AS HPC HAS MENTIONED...SO OPTED
TO REMAIN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH A HEAVIER EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES. THIS BROUGHT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING SATURDAY AND MAINTAINED THEM THROUGH MONDAY.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO HPC NUMBERS WHICH STRAY SLIGHTLY FROM MEX
GUIDANCE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TNGT DESPITE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT
WHICH IGNITED SCT...BUT HIGH BASED SHRA ACRS THE OH VALLEY REGION
THIS AFTN. THE LAST OF THOSE SHRA WL FADE THIS EVE AS SPPRTG
SHORTWV PASSES...AND AS TEMPS FALL BLO CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS. WIND
GUSTS WL ALSO CEASE AS DECOUPLING OCCURS.

COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH RETROGRADING UPR LOW PRES WL SPPRT MORE
SHRA...AND SHSN ON TUESDAY. GIVEN A FAIRLY DECENT SPREAD IN THE
PROGNOSIS OF THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD...THINK THAT CIGS WL AGAIN BE
IN THE VFR CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY BRIEFLY
DURING THE AFTN. FOR NOW WL LEAVE THAT AS AN UNMENTIONABLE IN THE
TAFS. WITH STEEP LOW LAPSE RATES AGAIN EXPECTED...SFC WND GUSTS NR
25 KT MAG AGAIN BE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL REINFORCE COOL NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE LAKES AND BRING
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

410 PM EDT MON APR 9 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE, SATELLITE, AND RADAR DATA, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WINDS CAN GUST TO 35 MPH.

SPC HAS SUGGESTED THUNDER CAN DEVELOP, BUT LOWLEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TOO MEAGER TO INITIATE THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AS COLD UPPER LOW PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO HPC NUMBERS WHICH STRAY SLIGHTLY FROM MEX
GUIDANCE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES
SOUTHWESTWARD. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH DIURNAL
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WINDS TO GUST TO 25KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AT SUNSET.

AS THE LOW AND COLD POOL APPROACHES TUESDAY...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME CIG RESTRICTIONS. WHILE
THE NAM AND SREF SUGGEST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...NO OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS. THUS...WITH LIMITED
CONFIDENCE...DECIDED TO KEEP MAINLY VFR FOR MOST SITES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL REINFORCE COOL NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKES AND BRING
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1241 PM EDT MON APR 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
INTO TUESDAY, PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES,
THAT CAN LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE, SATELLITE, AND RADAR DATA, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT, HAVE AGAIN TWEAKED
MENTION OF SHOWER CHANCES. THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF SCATTERED
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. RECENT DATA ALSO SHOWS A COLD FRONTAL BAND OF
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO, WHICH HRRR MODEL OUTPUT
SHOWS SWEEPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE U.S.
422 CORRIDOR.

SPC HAS SUGGESTED THUNDER CAN DEVELOP, BUT LOWLEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TOO MEAGER TO INITIATE THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

CONTINUED FORECAST OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH.

THERE MAY BE A CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT, BUT OF NO CONSEQUENCE DUE TO WARM GROUND.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A COLD UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL ROTATES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
KEEPING CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE
LAYER MAY BE COLD ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT AND PERHAPS MORE SO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, BUT DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY CAN
BE 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY CAN BE STILL 10
DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL, DEPENDING HOW MUCH LINGERING EFFECT
THE EXITING COLD UPPER LOW STILL HAS. CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
GOING MUCH COLDER THAN 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL MAKE THE
LATE NIGHT SURFACE LAYER COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN...THE FINER DETAILS AND SHORTWAVES THAT
EVENTUALLY LIFT THE TROUGH TO THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD HAVE NOT
RESOLVED AS WELL. THUS...KEPT CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE KEEPING THE
REGION DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND BRINGING IN CHANCE POPS SAT AND
SUN WITH THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND NAEFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL
WARMING TO AT AND ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF VFR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS. THE
FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KMGW.
NAM/NMM-WRF SUPPORT THE SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH DIURNAL MIXING
WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WINDS TO GUST TO 20-25KTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN
10KTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL REINFORCE COOL NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKES AND BRING
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1205 PM EDT MON APR 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
INTO TUESDAY, PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES,
THAT CAN LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWEAKED MENTION OF SHOWER CHANCES, GENERALLY LOWERING THEM FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR, PER RECENT HRRR AND SREF MODEL
OUTPUT, THAT SHOWED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON HAVING
MORE EFFECT SOUTH THAN NORTH. LIKEWISE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVERAGE SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD.

CONTINUED FORECAST OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH.

THERE MAY BE A CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT, BUT OF NO CONSEQUENCE DUE TO WARM GROUND.

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF VFR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS. THE
FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KMGW.
NAM/NMM-WRF SUPPORT THE SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1032 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. A WARMING TREND CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN THE FLORENCE AREA
PRODUCED SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE AROUND SUNSET. WE
RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS FROM MEDIA AND WEATHER SPOTTERS FROM
TIMMONSVILLE INTO FLORENCE OF 50-55 MPH WINDS...TREES DOWN AND EVEN
DAMAGE TO A BARN. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS WINDS REMAINED UNDER 40 MPH.
THE CULPRIT IN THIS CASE WAS EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF RAIN IN THE
DEEP DRY LAYER UNDER THE CLOUD BASE. THIS CREATED NEGATIVELY BUOYANT
(HEAVY AND COLD) AIR THAT ACCELERATED DOWNWARD UNTIL IT HIT THE
GROUND AND SPREAD OUT HORIZONTALLY. THE 20-21Z HRRR MODEL RUNS
STRUGGLED WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF RAINFALL...BUT THE 23Z RUN LOOKS
REASONABLE AND SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM MARION AND
NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY INTO WILMINGTON THROUGH 04Z/MIDNIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATING BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 7 PM FOLLOWS...

IN A WEATHER PATTERN MORE REMINISCENT OF JANUARY THAN APRIL WE HAVE
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A STRONG VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ROTATING EASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
THIS VORT MAX WILL HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS BY MIDNIGHT...USHERING IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING (UP TO 10000 FT ACCORDING TO
THE 18Z NAM) HAS MADE EFFICIENT USE OF WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE EXISTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS ACTUALLY PRODUCED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WITH
CUMULONIMBUS BASES NEARLY TWO MILES UP. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN SC AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NC THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH RAINFALL TOTALS
REMAINING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. FORECAST POPS
RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT IN THE FLORENCE AREA TO ONLY 10 PERCENT IN
GEORGETOWN. MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN NC STANDS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN (0.01 INCH OR GREATER) THIS EVENING.

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION INCREASING LATE BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND 540 DM BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
IN THE LUMBERTON VICINITY. LARGE HEAT FLUXES OUT OF THE SOIL PLUS
THE SHORT LENGTH OF NIGHT IN APRIL WILL HELP SPARE US FROM COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT WE`LL BE WATCHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOSELY
AS WINDS DIE DOWN.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS...STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 43-47 INLAND AND 46-50 AT THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF A COOL CANADIAN BLAST
IS POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
PRESENTLY DIGGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND HELPS USHERS CHILLED HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL BE PUSHING
FARTHER TO SEA...USHERING DEEP AND DRY NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THE BASE OF THE COOL POOL ALOFT CROSSES OUR ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SUSPECT SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GENERATED.
DRYNESS ALOFT WILL GREATLY SQUELCH THE DEPTH OF CONVECTION AND
NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE PLANNED AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND RADIATIVE POTENTIAL EARLY THURSDAY AND FRI
MORNING SUPPORT INCLUSION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS. BOTH MAY
BE EQUALLY COLD WITH LIGHTER WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
30S EXPECTED BOTH MORNINGS...WITH POCKETS OF INLAND FREEZING TEMPS
A POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...A NICE WARM UP WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND...
FOLLOWING A COOL FRIDAY. THE H5 PATTERN WILL CHANGE FROM A TROUGH
IN THE EAST TO A BUILDING RIDGE INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF
THE COAST RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE WEEKEND.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH CLIMO SATURDAY THEN
WARM A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY MEANINGFUL
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERE VERY
DRY BELOW 7K FEET...BUT PRECIP COULD STILL REACH THE GROUND.
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL...AS VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR. AFTER 06Z...EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...GUSTY AT
TIMES...AS MODERATE COLD AIR CONVECTION COMMENCES.
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCATTERED SKIES AS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...UPDATES LATE THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY TO SEAS
WHICH ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT LARGER THAN WERE PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPE FEAR VICINITY. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 7 PM
FOLLOWS...

IN A PATTERN MORE REMINISCENT OF JANUARY THAN APRIL...A STRONG COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS WILL WHIP
EAST AND OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN
TIGHTENING ALL DAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT AND WE ARE EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. ACROSS THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS THE SYNOPTIC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
MYRTLE BEACH AREA HAS PUSHED GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. THESE STRONGER
SEABREEZE-ENHANCED WINDS SHOULD DIE AWAY THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE.

RADAR SHOWS PATCHES OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT TO THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...BRISK NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD AS A DRY BUT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SE OVER THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR EXPECTED EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING REINFORCED BY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE...BUT DOESNT
APPEAR AS STRONG. SEAS WILL REMAIN BUMPY OFFSHORE BUT SUPPRESSED
INSHORE IN THE NW WIND TRAJECTORY. NO TSTMS EXPECTED INSHORE BUT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG CONVECTION MAY FIRE
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY THIS WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
MOVES BY THE FLOW WILL TURN FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION EARLY ON IN
THE PERIOD TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS
WILL BE MODULATED BY A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE SAT AND SUN. OVERALL
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
LIGHTEST WINDS ON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN
BECOME CHOPPY DURING THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERLY LOWER PERIOD WAVE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...TODAYS RED FLAG WARNING WILL PLAY OUT THROUGH
800 PM ACROSS OUR VERY NORTHERN TIER...WHERE WE CURRENTLY SEE THE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND RH VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT.

POST FRONTAL DRYING/LOWERING DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY NW WINDS...WILL AGAIN LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL AND A AN SPS-BASED "FIRE DANGER STATEMENT" WILL BE ISSUED
TO ADDRESS THE AGGRAVATED CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-024.

NC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-
105-106.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
FIRE WEATHER...MJC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

714 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST. THE LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUPY
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THOUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND THEN CLEAR
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

.AVIATION...AT 7 AM CDT/12Z MONDAY CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS AND
OCNL MVFR CIGS AT KJMS UNTIL 15Z...THEN SCATTERED AFTER 15Z. VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS
NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 KTS AT KJMS...AND 15 TO 20 KTS AT
KISN/KBIS/KMOT/KDIK TIL 01Z.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ034>037-045>048-050-051.

SHORT TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

805 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BEGIN TO RISE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SOMEWHAT DETACHED BAND SWINGING
ACROSS THE SOUTH. BUT CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA WHICH IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST. THUS IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS
WILL BE DIMINISHING IN AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA. RUC MOISTURE
FIELDS SEEM TO REASONABLY REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SO
USED THAT AS A GUIDE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN STUBBORN IN CENTRAL OHIO. BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES
WILL CLEAR FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF CLEARING
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO START SPREADING BACK IN
TOWARDS MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DIMINISH. BUT GIVEN CLOUD FORECAST EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTION MAY
BE IN CENTRAL OHIO IF CLOUDS REMAIN AS FORECAST. BUT EVEN THERE IT
WILL BE CLOSE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF URBAN AREAS. SO DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF CLOUD
COVER OUT OF THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...BASED ON AN INCREASING
SIGNAL OF HIGHER 850MB RH ONLY MOVING EAST VERY SLOWLY. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AS A
RESULT...THOUGH SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE
THE END OF THE DAY.

A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IN AN OPPOSITE SITUATION OF TONIGHT...THE MODEL NUMBERS ARE
FORECASTING TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...BUT
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT A FORECAST
BELOW GUIDANCE.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN. THIS SHOULD END THE FROST AND FREEZE THREAT FOR THE NEAR
FUTURE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY
TO START OUT THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT IN THE
LONG TERM FOR THE MAIN FEATURES HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND HOWEVER WENT
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY BRINGING OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR DECK IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
COLUMBUS AREA. CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BACK TO WESTERLY. AFTER 12Z WINDS WILL
VEER TO MORE NORTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY
ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-
088.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

330 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CALM WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
CREATING SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
LEAD OF NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
NORTHWARD LATER IF THE RUC IS CORRECT... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME BEING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TODAY... WITH
THE STRONGEST FLOW REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... WHICH
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MIGRATE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS A WEAK WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

IT APPEARS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THAT THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER... THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL TRY TO REMAIN WEST OF
OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK... WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THAT SAID HOWEVER... OUR AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ROGUE
MCS ACTIVITY ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER US TRANSLATES EASTWARD
LATE IN THE WEEK... SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BEGIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR US GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE WAFFLING ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN. THE CURRENT GFS IS NOT LOOKING GOOD AT THIS TIME...
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SETTING UP PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE LOTS OF RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE SITUATION AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 74 56 74 50 / 10 30 10 20
FSM 77 56 76 51 / 10 20 20 10
MLC 74 58 76 56 / 10 30 10 30
BVO 73 50 73 47 / 10 30 10 20
FYV 72 48 69 43 / 10 20 20 10
BYV 73 49 70 41 / 10 20 20 0
MKO 75 56 74 52 / 10 30 20 20
MIO 75 50 72 44 / 10 20 10 10
F10 75 57 75 55 / 10 30 10 30
HHW 75 61 79 57 / 10 30 20 20

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ073-
OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....06

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

947 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.UPDATE...
BROKEN LINE MOSTLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EDGING EAST TO NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO-TEXAS STATE LINE. STILL ONE OR TWO CELLS OCCASIONALLY
SHOWING LIFE SUCH AS THE RECENT STORM THAT MAY HAVE PRODUCED A
STRONG WIND GUST AT THE CLOVIS AIRPORT. THESE SHOULD WEAKEN
FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH NOT MUCH POTENTIAL TO MOVE VERY FAR EAST
ACCORDING TO SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE FROM THE FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE MAY APPROACH AT LEAST CENTRAL PANHANDLE
LATER TONIGHT...UNSURE IF IT WILL SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO APPROACH
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK THUNDER REST OF TONIGHT
WITH EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTY ROWS FOR ABOVE
MENTIONED ACTIVITY. RMCQUEEN

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO IMPACT EITHER TAF SITE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE NEXT 18 HOURS AT
LEAST WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING
ADDING A PROB30 THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR BOTH KLBB AND KCDS AFTER
00Z WEDNESDAY IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. RMCQUEEN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR AND JUST
SOUTH OF KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING...WE HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE CHANCES
FOR THUNDER OUT OF KCDS FOR THE EVENING. LIKEWISE...KLBB APPEARS
TO BE IN A LULL DOMINATED BY LOW LEVEL DIVERGENT WINDS...AND WILL
LEAVE CB AND THUNDER MENTION OUT. SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR KCVS TO
JUST NORTH OF KAMA APPEARS WILL BE MODERATELY ACTIVE WITH THUNDER
THIS EVENING WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE STORMS TO EDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...BUT STEERING FLOW FAIRLY WEAK AND MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK. THUNDER CHANCES LATE
WEDNESDAY MAINLY WEST OF KLBB AGAIN THOUGH MAY BE MOVING INTO KLBB
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012/

SHORT TERM...
STILL WATCHING NEAR TERM THUNDER CHANCES. CU FIELDS DEVELOPING
ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ROUGHLY FROM AMARILLO TO FLOYDADA
TO GUTHRIE...ALONG THE DRYLINE ABOUT 30 MILES INTO ERN NM...AND IN
AN AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW FROM CLOVIS NEWD TOWARD AMARILLO. HAVE
ALSO SEEN SOME STORMS DEVELOP ON THE SACRAMENTOS OF CENTRAL
NM...BUT THEY WILL HAVE SOME DISTANCE TO COVER BEFORE THREATENING
THE FCST AREA. UNCERTAIN HOW SUCCESSFUL ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL BE. 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED DRIER FAVORING THE SRN PANHANDLE THEN
THE NERN ZONES AS THAT ACTIVITY ROLLS SEWD. HRRR CONTINUES TO BE
RATHER DRY GENERALLY FAVORING HIGH BASED STORMS NEAR THE DRYLINE
WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME INVITATION ACROSS THE SWRN PANHANDLE
SIMILAR TO THE NAM. PROBLEM WITH THE DRYLINE STORMS IS HOW MUCH
DRY AIR HAS MIXED TO THE SFC EAST OF IT WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA. BEST OBVIOUS LOW LEVEL
SUPPORT IS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST AND THE
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE DOING A DECENT JOB OF SERVING AS A
CONVERGENCE ZONE. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE LEAST FAVORED AREA BY THE
MODELS. MEANWHILE THE AREA FAVORED BY THE MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE
LITTLE GOING FOR IT. MUST ALSO NOTE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES THAT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THAT
FEATURE IS NOT SHUTTING OFF TSRA OVER THE NM MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT POPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST OR LOWERED IN A FEW CASES. POTENTIAL FOR SVR WILL CONTINUE
WITH WIND FAVORED IN THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE WEST AND POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL SHOULD ANY STORMS INITIATE IN THE EAST. TEND TO FAVOR THE NAM
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS REGARDING A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PRECIP POTENTIAL MAINLY
ACROSS THE WRN HALF DURING THE AFTN. HOWEVER...SEEING NEGATIVES
THERE AS WELL WITH PROGGED THICK CIRRUS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER RIDGE HAVING MIGRATED OVERHEAD...ALBEIT WEAKENING WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ATTEMPTING TO BREAK IT DOWN. PROGGED
INVITATION NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE SEEMS REASONABLE ALTHOUGH
PROGGED QPF COVERAGE SEEMS A BIT MUCH INITIALLY. HAVE KEPT
PREVIOUS IDEA FAVORING THE WRN ZONES NEAR THE DRYLINE BUT TWEAKED
POPS DOWN A FRACTION.

BOTH FLAVORS OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WEDNESDAY
HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AND TO PREVIOUS FCST. NO SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER LATE WED AFTN EXPECTED TO
ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EASTWARD THRU MUCH OF THE CWFA THRU THE EVENING.
SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS BEST ACRS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF ENHANCED UPPER LIFT AND INCREASED SHEAR.
COULD STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY FORM INTO
SMALL MCS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS H85 WINDS RAMP UP TO NEAR 40KTS.
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES OUT WEST...INITIAL SVR THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WINDS. IF MCS CAN DEVELOP...SVR THREAT WILL
TRANSFORM INTO MORE OF A WIND EVENT THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

BY THURSDAY...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SFC
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EAST TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY THE
MID AFTN HOURS. STRONG SFC HEATING COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A GOOD THREAT OF SEVERE WX ONCE STORMS FORM.
THESE PARAMETERS SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

AS THE UA TROUGH CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACRS THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL DWINDLE AS THE DRYLINE
NEARS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWFA. WILL RETAIN JUST A VERY SLIGHT
MENTION OF STORMS ACRS THIS VCNTY FOR BOTH THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE TIME FRAMES.

DRY AND WINDY WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE CLOSED
H5 LOW HEADS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THEN BEGINS TO LIFT
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY. AS STATED BY PREVIOUS
SHIFT...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL JET
STREAK ADVANCES INTO WEST TEXAS AROUND BASE OF UPR TROUGH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND PERHAPS
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH LOW RH/S IN PLACE.

INCONSISTENCIES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY IN REGARD TO HOW FAST THE THE UPPER TROUGH
EJECTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO SLIP SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ARRIVAL OF FRONT ON MONDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW COOLER TEMPS FOR MON AND TUES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 74 53 80 45 / 40 50 50 10 10
TULIA 56 79 55 82 53 / 20 40 50 10 10
PLAINVIEW 57 79 56 84 54 / 10 30 50 10 10
LEVELLAND 58 78 56 82 54 / 10 40 50 10 10
LUBBOCK 59 79 59 83 58 / 10 30 50 20 20
DENVER CITY 58 79 57 84 54 / 20 40 40 10 10
BROWNFIELD 59 79 57 83 56 / 10 40 40 10 10
CHILDRESS 58 79 60 83 60 / 10 20 40 20 20
SPUR 59 81 59 83 58 / 10 20 40 20 20
ASPERMONT 60 83 62 84 62 / 10 20 40 20 20

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/99/05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

658 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR AND JUST
SOUTH OF KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING...WE HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE CHANCES
FOR THUNDER OUT OF KCDS FOR THE EVENING. LIKEWISE...KLBB APPEARS
TO BE IN A LULL DOMINATED BY LOW LEVEL DIVERGENT WINDS...AND WILL
LEAVE CB AND THUNDER MENTION OUT. SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR KCVS TO
JUST NORTH OF KAMA APPEARS WILL BE MODERATELY ACTIVE WITH THUNDER
THIS EVENING WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE STORMS TO EDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...BUT STEERING FLOW FAIRLY WEAK AND MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK. THUNDER CHANCES LATE
WEDNESDAY MAINLY WEST OF KLBB AGAIN THOUGH MAY BE MOVING INTO KLBB
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. RMCQUEEN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012/

BOTH FLAVORS OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WEDNESDAY
HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AND TO PREVIOUS FCST. NO SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 74 53 80 45 / 40 50 50 10 10
TULIA 56 79 55 82 53 / 40 40 50 10 10
PLAINVIEW 57 79 56 84 54 / 50 30 50 10 10
LEVELLAND 58 78 56 82 54 / 40 40 50 10 10
LUBBOCK 59 79 59 83 58 / 40 30 50 20 20
DENVER CITY 58 79 57 84 54 / 30 40 40 10 10
BROWNFIELD 59 79 57 83 56 / 30 40 40 10 10
CHILDRESS 58 79 60 83 60 / 50 20 40 20 20
SPUR 59 81 59 83 58 / 40 20 40 20 20
ASPERMONT 60 83 62 84 62 / 30 20 40 20 20

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

613 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE THE FOCUS
THIS EVENING FOR SOME CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...SO WILL OPT TO
MENTION VCTS AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 03Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 10Z WEDNESDAY AT THE GUYMON TAF SITE. SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING CU ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DOWN INTO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. DEVELOPING CU WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS LIES ACROSS THIS
AREA WITH SBCAPES BETWEEN 1500- 2500 J/KG. WHILE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
FROM SPC RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IS NOT AT ALL IMPRESSIVE...GIVEN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...IF ANY STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP THEY CAN
BECOME SEVERE. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE...LOW CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE KEEPING THIS AREA UNDER A COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS. NONETHELESS DESPITE NOT HAVING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISMS TO INITIATE CONVECTION...MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WITH GREATER CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS CONVECTION FORMING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUT WEST...NEAR THE DRYLINE...PUSHES EASTWARD. IN ADDITION...A LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WHICH MAY HELP TO GENERATE
ADDITIONAL STORMS.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GETS SHUNTED FURTHER TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. PROSPECTS FOR
STORMS AND HENCE SEVERE WEATHER LOOK BETTER ON WEDNESDAY AS A VORT
MAX MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE IN EASTERN WHERE THEY CAN CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. AGAIN CONTINUED SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FURTHER DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY
HELPING TO TRANSITION THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE
LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHICH
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY. THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO
SURGE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES...WHERE IT WILL FOCUS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE WARM...MOIST...
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR
ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE DRYLINE TO PUSH FURTHER EAST...WHICH SHOULD
SHUNT ANY PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE AREA. A LOW WILL CLOSE OFF ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH WHERE IT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME IN DRIER WITH ANY
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...HELPING TO MITIGATE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. A DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN TX/OK
PANHANDLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS HINGE UPON HOW MUCH PRECIP THE AREA RECEIVES
BEFORE THEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MONDAY.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

CLK

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

11/02

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

408 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON CENTERS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL VORT
MAX CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND WEST TX. THIS AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE HAS
LED TO SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A
LINE AND PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
FAVORABLE BULK SHEER VALUES...AND SBCAPES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG
WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NM BORDER WHERE SURFACE WINDS WERE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #152...
HAVE GONE AND INCREASED POPS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE CO-
LOCATED. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN OK
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SQUARELY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. WHILE THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND ANY FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
A GOOD FETCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING AS A VORT MAX TOPS
THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE. AGAIN THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THUS HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY.
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE LOW TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN CO/NM. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...FOCUSING
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SPLIT INTO TWO CHUNKS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN
PIECE LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY. HAVE
NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOCUSING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TX. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A WET
START TO THE NEXT WEEK THOUGH AS DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CAN GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW FOR THIS
PERIOD AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THIS
SOLUTION OVER THEIR NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

CLK

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM THUNDERSTORMS CAN CAUSE FIRE STARTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WHERE FUELS ARE NOT AS MOIST.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A DRYLINE
SURGES INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES BUT THIS IS
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS AREA RECEIVES EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.

CLK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 53 72 55 70 53 / 40 60 50 50 50
BEAVER OK 55 68 52 67 56 / 40 40 50 30 40
BOISE CITY OK 50 67 51 70 50 / 30 40 50 30 40
BORGER TX 54 74 57 71 56 / 40 60 50 40 50
BOYS RANCH TX 53 78 55 75 53 / 40 60 50 40 50
CANYON TX 53 74 54 73 52 / 40 60 50 50 50
CLARENDON TX 57 74 56 70 56 / 50 60 50 40 60
DALHART TX 50 72 52 69 48 / 30 40 50 40 40
GUYMON OK 53 68 53 69 55 / 30 40 50 30 40
HEREFORD TX 52 74 54 71 51 / 40 60 40 40 50
LIPSCOMB TX 54 68 54 66 57 / 50 60 50 40 50
PAMPA TX 54 70 53 67 56 / 50 60 50 40 50
SHAMROCK TX 57 73 57 69 59 / 60 60 50 40 60
WELLINGTON TX 59 76 59 71 60 / 60 60 50 40 60

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

11/05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

356 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS WITH CHANCE AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM
FAVOR OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY GROW UPSCALE
INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO AND TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THAT AREA BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CARRYING THE HIGHEST POPS /40-50 PERCENT/
ACROSS THAT AREA. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP COVERING THE SOUTHERN BIG
COUNTRY AND NORTHWESTERN CONCHO VALLEY...WHERE MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW WHAT MAY BE A WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS TOWARD OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST TEXAS...THE HRRR AND WRF SHOW CONSIDERABLE
DEVELOPMENT AND INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF THIS CONVECTION MERGING
WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED CLUSTER AS IT TRACKS TOWARD OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. FOR NOW...TAKING
A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH POPS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED
PENDING EVENING DEVELOPMENT.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TRICKY AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. CARRYING LOWS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AND THE
COOLER /UPPER 50S/ READINGS MAY BE ACROSS OUR HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWEST. MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER FIELDS LOOK DOUBTFUL FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF OUR AREA TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT RIDGE...KEEPING POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SAG ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG.

ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE DRYLINE BECOMING
ACTIVE TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES THE AREA. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WEDNESDAY EVENING
MAY SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A LESSENING
SEVERE THREAT AS INSTABILITY WANES. INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASED
POPS TO CHANCE ALL ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LO0KS UNSETTLED AS WE REMAIN
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRYLINE ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS WEAK IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER AZ/NM ON SATURDAY...TRACKING SLOWLY EAST INTO WEST TEXAS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 82 62 83 60 81 / 20 20 10 20 10
SAN ANGELO 84 61 85 60 83 / 10 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 83 60 84 60 82 / 10 10 10 10 10

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

19/24

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

941 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.UPDATE...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WI TNT WITH
MARGINAL CONDITIONS IN SE WI. A SLIGHT RIDGING IN THE PRESSURE
FIELD IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING SWD AS AN UPPER WAVE FROM SE CANADA TO
MI SHIFTS SWD. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLIGHTLY OVER SRN WI TNT WITH 20 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC. EXPECT
TEMPERATURE FALL TO BE VERY GRADUAL DUE TO THE WINDS. THERE WILL EVENTUALLY
BE FEW-SCT CLOUDS IN ERN WI FROM THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
WAVE AFFECTING THE AREA AND POSSIBLY LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR WED AND THU
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FEW-SCT CUMULUS OR
STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
DECK SUPPORTED BY WEAK INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL IN RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BACK EDGE OF VORTICITY
MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. DOWNWARD MOTION WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...BEFORE FINALLY
MIXING OUT LATE TONIGHT. MAY SEE AREA OF CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON NEAR
THE LAKE...BUT LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. WESTERN END OF ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL.

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL MIXING WILL LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING AS WELL. PRESSURE
GRADIENT THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE.

CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO 28 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT OR LOWER...SO WENT WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR GREEN LAKE
TO ROCK COUNTIES AND WEST FROM 06Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST LEFT MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR
LOWS TO REACH THAT THRESHOLD...SO LEFT THOSE AREAS OUT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT ONSHORE NEAR THE LAKE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 40S...WITH 50S INLAND PER 925MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND FROM
MINNESOTA TO MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. NAM/GFS AND 12Z CRAS ALL TAKES
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
DEPARTING NORTHWEST FLOW. ONLY THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SOME FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER
THE NAM THEN SETS UP A SLIGHT LAND BREEZE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE NIGHT WITH A FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALL MODELS PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TAKING PRECIPITATION
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE NAM/ECMWF
IN AT BEST REACHING AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AROUND SUNRISE.
ONLY THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SHEBOYGAN AREA DRY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE OTHER MODELS BRINGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE 850 MB JET BRINGS 10C 850 MB DEWPOINTS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
GFS IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER IN PUSHING A SURFACE LOW INTO MINNESOTA
WITH THE NAM/ECMWF AND DEGEX ALL SLOWER AND WEAKER AND IS PREFERED.
ELEVATED CAPE OF AROUND 60 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF LIFTED FROM 5
THSD FT. PREFER MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT WITH LOW THUNDER POTENTIAL.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BOTH THE 12Z GFS/06Z DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF ESTABLISH A MID/UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MODELS EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR NEW MEXICO.

THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE WEST NEAR FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX PUSHES
THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE FASTER WITH A TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW ON THE 00Z
ECMWF...REACHING FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE 12Z GFS...THAT HAS THE LOW REACHING FAR EASTERN QUEBEC. THE
06Z DGEX IS EVEN SLOWER WITH A WEAKER LOW NEAR THE IOWA/MINNESOTA
BORDER.

APPEARS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MORE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT TAF
SITES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT
MADISON...BEFORE MIXING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THEN EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME SCATTERED VFR
CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.

EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CEILINGS LINGER
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SCATTER OUT BY LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...THOUGH
THINK MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
EASTERLY FLOW MAY PUSH THESE MORE INLAND.

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET...WITH GUSTS UP TO
27 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN VEER NORTH WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THESE
WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST TO EAST AT THE EASTERN SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES TOWARD
THE OPEN WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 02Z WEDNESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE UNTIL SUNSET...WITH THE GUSTS
SUBSIDING WITH NIGHTFALL. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES LINGER TOWARD THE OPEN
WATERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-
056-057-062-063-067>069.

LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

251 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
251 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS IN THE
NORTH FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA FROM NORTHERN
ALBERTA AND MANITOBA.

THE 09.00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF KEEPING THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS STAYING TO THE EAST THE AREA AND
NOT PRODUCING MUCH VORTICITY ADVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...THE
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST BUT THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP THE REGION WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO PUMP DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP
MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TUESDAY...UP TO ABOUT 775 MB TODAY AND
800 MB TUESDAY. THIS DEEP MIXING WILL HELP PRODUCE TWO MORE DAYS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. AS
THE RIDGE AXIS GETS CLOSER WEDNESDAY...THE MIXING WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP...SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AND DEW
POINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20S. CRITICAL FIRE DANGERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WINDS AND LOW DEW POINTS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE NORTH FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND WILL CONVERT THE
FREEZE WATCH OVER TO A FREEZE WARNING. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER
FREEZE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
251 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY TO COME OUT OF THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIDE OF THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE
AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS FOR LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THE TROUGH EAST AND STARTS
TO COME OUT TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS CREATES A MESSY
PATTERN AS THE SURFACE WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WARM
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SECOND WAVE COMING OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA
BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE THUS PRETTY MUCH STAYED WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
LIMIT THE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY TO THE AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

WINDS DECOUPLED RATHER QUICKLY AROUND SUNDOWN...BECOMING MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH KRST SHOULD STAY FROM A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BREAK DOWN
MONDAY MORNING...IN THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME. WITH DEEP MIXING OF
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS UPWARDS OF 800 MB....COMBINED WITH A TIGHTER
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE NEAR SFC
LAYERS...ANOTHER WINDY/GUSTY DAY FOR KRST/KLSE IS ON TAP.

AS FOR CLOUDS...LATEST RUC13/NAM12 RH FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09-15Z.
HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DOESN/T MIMIC WHAT THE RUC AND
NAM HINT AT...ALTHOUGH SOME 4-5 KFT CIGS WERE SINKING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHERN MN. BELIEVE THESE CLOUDS WILL STAY NORTH TONIGHT...AND ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SOME 5 KFT SCT CU POTENTIAL PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH MONDAY
251 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR THE MOST
PART...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. BUT THIS COULD EASILY BE AT OR
BELOW THE 25 PERCENT CRITERIA IF TEMPERATURES LOCALLY WARM JUST A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OR IF THE DEW
POINTS DIP A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED. WILL THUS GO WITH THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA SINCE CURRENT FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE SO CLOSE TO CRITERIA.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
251 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.

IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1100 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
305 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH HARD FREEZE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY...A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW HAS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL
MANITOBA WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL ALTOSTRATUS LINGERED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG A CHANNEL OF 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
TODAY THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH...BUT OVERALL SKIES
SHOULD MAINLY BE CLEAR INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WINDS COMING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. DESPITE TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE 33-36F RANGE OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY WIDESPREAD FROST FROM
OCCURRING.

THE REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOMORROW WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE -3C TO -9C RANGE. LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO POOL ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE STATE WITH
INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD IOWA. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TOMORROW. 08.12Z
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER BRINGING GUSTS UP
TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS COMBINED WITH
LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM THE CLOUD DECK. SEE FIRE
WEATHER AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR TOMORROW NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO UPPER
20S...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH THAT
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FROST
FROM OCCURRING AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH JUST PATCHY FROST IN
THE FORECAST. WITH THE CORE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THAT MORE FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
305 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND WHEN THE
RAIN WILL REACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER DAY
OF FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE STILL NEARBY.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE BROAD TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SIGNAL BETWEEN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE. BEYOND THIS
FEATURE...DIFFERENCES START TO ARISE BETWEEN THE 08.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF WITH THE 500MB PATTERN AND ALIGNMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE 08.12Z GFS HAS A BIT MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO IT WHILE THE 08.12Z ECMWF IS MORE SOUTHERLY
AND KEEPS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHAT
THIS DOES AT THE SURFACE IS THAT THE ECMWF KEEPS A SOUTHERN
SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH RUNNING
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS HAS A VERY
WEAK LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE PRECIPITATION RUNNING MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...THEY STILL END UP
BRINGING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED ON AS WE APPROACH THIS SYSTEM ALONG
WITH ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER THAT MAY OCCUR. HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED
THUNDER-FREE FOR THE TIME BEING AS INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK
UNTIL MAYBE SATURDAY...YET CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT
IN AT THIS POINT.

.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH MONDAY
305 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

LOOK FOR THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN IMPROVE AFTER 8 PM WITH SUNSET. THE RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER DAY
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGERS. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH ALONG WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA VALID 1 PM TO 8 PM MONDAY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1100 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

WI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.

IA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

SHORT TERM.....HALBACH
LONG TERM......HALBACH
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

156 AM EDT WED APR 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT UPDATE...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS...TEMPS...CLOUD
COVERAGE AND POPS. SKY CONDITIONS RANGE FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. WENT DRY UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING 00Z HRRR DEPICTING BARELY ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ALOFT...BRIEF NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL KEEP VERTICAL
FORCING MINIMIZED GOING INTO THE MORNING. STILL WITH AMBIENT TEMPS
IN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD HAVE
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE QUICKLY BECOMING JUST
PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN PLACES
WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS GREATER WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE
WITH RANGE OF UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FOR LOWS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA DIPS INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER COOLER TEMPS INTO THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 50S. MEANWHILE...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
WILL SPILL INTO THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE OCEANIC LOW DEPARTS.

MAV/MET BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF A SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND A COLD POOL ALOFT (AROUND -30C AT H5) IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW SPEED
OF TROUGH EXITING SO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...HIGHEST E
WHERE BEST CHANCES ARE. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...SO NO THUNDER
FORECASTED. CHANCES OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN ARE RELATIVELY
LOW.

HEIGHTS THEN GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING BUILDING
TOWARDS THE AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE
SW. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN
WARM SECTORED INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD
FROM NEW ENGLAND.

12Z GFS IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LAST 2 EC RUNS POINTING
TO ANOMALOUSLY WARM PATTERN ESTABLISHING ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL SPECTRUM INDICATES VERY LARGE VARIATION IN MAX T BOTH MON AND
TUE...RANGING FROM LOWER 50S TO LOWER 80S AT KEWR. HAVE TRENDED
WARMER FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT CLOUD COVER FROM AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LIMIT HEATING.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SAT THROUGH MON
WITH A STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING. RH LEVELS SHOULD STEADILY RISE
IN THIS REGIME...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR RH TO DROP BELOW 30
PERCENT EXISTS DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO NEAR NOVA SCOTIA INTO THIS
EVENING.

PREDOMINATELY VFR. CEILINGS FROM 3100-6000 FT LIKELY FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH
END MVFR CEILINGS IN ANY ISOLD/SCT -SHRA. COVERAGE OF ANY -SHRA
FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE SPOTTY...SO DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT WNW AT JUST UNDER 10
KT AT KEWR/KLGA/KJFK. WINDS SHOULD BECOME NNW-NW THROUGHOUT AT
6-10 KT STARTING AROUND 12Z. COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE WINDS
BACK TO THE WNW AROUND MIDDAY...WITH OTHER TERMINALS NW. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AROUND MIDDAY THEN TO 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH COASTAL
TERMINAL WINDS VEERING BACK TO THE NW BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND VEER MORE
TOWARDS THE NNW.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING...CEILINGS 3100-5000 FT LIKELY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN ANY
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA WATERS.

GUSTS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS ON THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS UNTIL SAT WHEN AN INCREASING SW FLOW
WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL GUSTS ON THE WATERS...BUT SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...BUT FREQUENT
GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH ARE NOT EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY...MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...SHORT OF
CRITERIA FOR CONSIDERATION OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/12
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

256 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THOUGH WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO CONCERNING ACROSS
THE WEST.

AS HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES WITH ADVANCEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MIXES TO
THE SURFACE. LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL INITIATE A BIT FURTHER WEST
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...NOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
LOCAL WRF IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH ITS DEPICTION OF STORMS BY
21Z...WITH AT LEAST FOUR DISCRETE STORMS. HOWEVER...LATEST RUN OF
THE HRRR DEPICTS LESS ORGANIZED STORMS. NONETHELESS...SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW DISCRETE STORMS.
OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TEXAS PANHANDLE
STORMS THAT HAS INCHED INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS CERTAINLY
MAY BE A FOCUS LATER FOR SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREATS CONTINUE TO BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE DEWPOINTS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE TO BE A BIT HIGHER FOR A TORNADO THREAT...BUT AT THESE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW TO MID 50 DEWPOINTS...A TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS GREATEST EAST OF A LINE FROM
A RATON...TO SANTA ROSA...TO JUST EAST OF ROSWELL. MEANWHILE...
ONGOING STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE ARE MORE
RUN OF THE MILL TYPE STORMS...AND MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN OR DIMINISH AS
SUNRISE NEARS.

AGAIN...THE OTHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE WIND AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE WEST. DRY SLOT IS ALREADY INCHING INTO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. THOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIANCE IN THE MODELS...700 MB WINDS
LOOK TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS WITH 500 MB WINDS AROUND 60 TO 70 KTS.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS...WENT WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST/SW FOUR
ZONES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...STRONG AND DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE...AND ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED INTO
TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST ON FRIDAY...AND THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN MAY CONTINUE TO SEE VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT...AS 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 50-60KTS.

AS FOR THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...MODELS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE BACK AND
FORTH WITH REGARDS TO HOW IT WILL PLAY OUT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
INITIAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL...THUS THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH TERRAIN SNOW. AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
MAY DUMBBELL AROUND AND BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE STATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF THEN BRINGS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM ON
THIS ONES HEELS...BUT NOT SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO JUST YET.
REGARDLESS...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH STORMS
DECREASING AFTER 01Z THIS EVENING. EXPECT EXCURSIONS TO MVFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS...NEAR CAO...TCC...CVS/CVN...AND EAST OF ROW. TO THE
WEST...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 45 KTS NEAR THE ARIZONA WILL DEVELOP
BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. SOME MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FOLLOWING
THE DAYTIME CONVECTION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE CLOUD NORTHEAST
INTO TX AFTER 15Z THURSDAY MORNING.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. SHY

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...STATEWIDE ON
THURSDAY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON BASIC STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH SOME MIDWEEK DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN
EVOLUTION. COHERENCE IMPROVES LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...AS MODELS
AGREE ON BROAD TIMING ON EJECTION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. SHARP
AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING
WILL CARRY ADDITIONAL SHOT OF REINFORCING ENERGY PLUNGING SOUTHWEST
OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC. ACTION WILL SHEAR TROUGH BASE NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON...AS NEXT BLAST FROM THE
WEST MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY
FRIDAY...TO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY...AND ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ON SUNDAY. MODELS A LITTLE SHAKY ON ISSUING EXIT PASS FOR THE
SYSTEM...WITH GFS AND ECMWF AGREEING ON AN EJECTION TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK. TURBULENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WORK IN OVER NEW MEXICO AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. ZONAL FLOW
RETURNING OVER NEW MEXICO BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE WORK WEEK WRAPS UP.

FOR TODAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE BURST ROUNDING BASE OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AND NORTHWEST
PLATEAU DURING THE DAY TODAY. COPIOUS MOMENTUM ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE TO PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO THE LOW TEENS IN FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA LINE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RED FLAG CONDITIONS...WITH LOCAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THE MARGINS OF THE MAIN RED FLAG WARNING AREA. TO THE
EAST...SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER
WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE CHIEF THREAT. FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...WITH GOOD RECOVERIES NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER IN
THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NO VENTILATION ISSUES.

FOR THURSDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ANOTHER NOTCH DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTION AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH STATE LINE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING RAPIDLY INTO TEXAS DURING THE DAY. THURSDAY WIND FOCUS
SHIFTING EAST IN TURN WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SETTING UP BROADLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE AS HUMIDITIES FALL
INTO THE TEENS STATEWIDE. COOLER AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE WEST WITH
COLD FRONT STRUNG OUT ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS BY
MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...CLOSED LOW CENTERING TROUGH MOVING OVER SAN FRANCISCO
CIRCULATING STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND
MAINTAINS STRONG TURBULENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER WINDY
DAY ON TAP FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS PCT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL SET UP ANOTHER DAY OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. COOLER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST WILL DROP
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN TIER OF
THE STATE WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH AND WEST FEATURING SOME
HIGH COUNTRY SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES NORTH AND WEST...AND CONTINUED FAIR
RECOVERIES TO THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL START TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES HIGHER...BUT ENOUGH DRYNESS IN
PLACE SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF RED FLAGS FOR THE EAST.
EASTERN HUMIDITIES WILL SQUEAK ABOVE RED FLAG THRESHOLDS FOR
SUNDAY...AND BOTTOM ONLY IN THE 20S PCT FOR MONDAY TO EASE THIS
PROTRACTED ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. SATURDAY WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES AND AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AS
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. SOME DETERIORATION IN VENTILATION
CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH AS THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS BY...BUT
REMAINING FAVORABLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. SHOWER COVERAGE WITH HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
WETTING RAINS.

SHY

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 77 40 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 73 29 59 23 / 5 5 5 5
CUBA............................ 76 34 63 28 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 71 31 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 67 29 55 23 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 72 33 62 27 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 69 35 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 75 38 68 31 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 68 34 55 27 / 10 5 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 72 44 62 38 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 70 42 62 35 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 34 61 26 / 10 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 59 33 51 28 / 20 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 29 55 27 / 20 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 72 35 62 27 / 10 0 0 0
MORA............................ 66 38 62 31 / 20 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 79 35 70 31 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 71 43 61 37 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 76 40 65 34 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 76 46 68 41 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 47 69 42 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 44 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 79 44 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 81 42 72 37 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 79 44 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 84 45 77 40 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 77 39 66 34 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 77 42 68 37 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 74 40 64 34 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 72 40 62 34 / 20 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 75 43 67 37 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 79 40 71 36 / 10 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 72 43 63 38 / 20 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 67 43 67 37 / 50 30 0 0
RATON........................... 74 39 71 35 / 50 20 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 73 39 70 34 / 50 20 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 40 66 34 / 30 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 72 49 77 43 / 60 30 0 0
ROY............................. 70 46 72 39 / 50 20 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 79 49 77 42 / 50 20 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 79 47 76 43 / 40 10 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 81 54 82 47 / 60 30 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 79 52 80 46 / 50 30 0 0
PORTALES........................ 80 52 81 45 / 50 30 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 50 85 44 / 40 20 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 86 51 85 47 / 30 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 83 46 78 41 / 20 5 0 0
ELK............................. 77 46 72 41 / 20 5 0 0

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-105-106-109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-505-506-508.

34/SHY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

145 AM EDT WED APR 11 2012

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS...STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 43-47 INLAND AND 46-50 AT THE COAST.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
OFF THE COAST BY 08Z. ISOLATED PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER
WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE ILM TERMINAL UNTIL THE CFP.

WINDS AFTER FROPA WILL BECOME A NUISANCE TO AVIATORS...ESPECIALLY
WHEN THE GUSTS COMMENCE. EXPECT POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BECOMING GUSTY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE SEVERAL
HRS AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED
WITH EXCELLENT CAA FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MODEL TIME HEIGHT
SERIES INDICATE A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...WILL PLACE A SCATTERED SC/CU CLOUD DECK IN. WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY THE GUSTINESS...WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. ENOUGH OF A
SFC PG THIS EVENING TO KEEP NW-NNW WINDS ACTIVE THROUGH 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MORNING FOG
SATURDAY.

RADAR SHOWS PATCHES OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT TO THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-024.

NC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-
105-106.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/HDL43
FIRE WEATHER...MJC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

1154 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...TSRA THREAT SHOULD BE OVER FOR OUR TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH KDHT MAY SEE A SHRA OR
TWO BETWEEN NOW AND 08Z. MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR KDHT OR
KAMA...SO ONLY INCLUDED IN KGUY FOR NOW. THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 20Z...DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING COVERAGE THE LAST TWO DAYS
HAS BEEN RATHER LIMITED.

JOHNSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE THE FOCUS
THIS EVENING FOR SOME CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...SO WILL OPT TO
MENTION VCTS AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 03Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 10Z WEDNESDAY AT THE GUYMON TAF SITE. SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012/

CLK

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

16/02

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

829 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012

WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THE UINTAH BASIN AND THE MIDDLE COLORADO
RIVER BASIN THE THE WIND ADVISORY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR THOSE
AREAS LOOK AS STRONG AS OTHER COVERED ZONES AND TYPICALLY THESE
ZONES REACH CRITERIA IN THIS TYPE OF WIND EVENT. I ALSO EXTENDED
THE TIMING OF THE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SEEM TO BE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012

SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A SUB 1000 MB SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS NE UTAH AND EXTREME NW COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY.
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SRN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING
PIVOTS NORTHEAST...THIS ALLOWS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO INCREASES
THE NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES ERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
700 MB WINDS/TEMPS AT 35 KNOTS/AROUND +7C AND WILL TRANSLATE TO
THE SURFACE AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH. THE
FORECAST GRIDS REFLECT THIS TREND QUITE WELL...BUT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST CHALLENGE REGARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. AIR MASS REMAINS DRY THIS MORNING...BUT STRONG FORCING
AND MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE
WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN SLOPE HIGH COUNTRY. IN THE NEAR SHORT TERM...THE HRRR MODEL
KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH 18Z. WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS
IDEA...BUT EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPWARD FORCING ARRIVES. THE DRY SUB CLOUD ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE
THE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL.

THE FIRST EJECTING SHRT WAVE FROM THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE PACIFIC
TROF WILL PUSH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. CURRENT TIMING HAS IT MOVING THROUGH THE GRAND
VALLEY AROUND 03Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL PRECEDE AND FOLLOW THE FRONT. I
INCREASED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NRN MTNS...WITH LOWER
POPS ELSEWHERE. A MUCH COOLER AND MORE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH A SERIES OF VORT CENTERS LINED UP TO PASS OVER THE
REGION. ONE FAIRLY ENERGETIC WAVE IS TIMED TO PASS THUR AFTN...WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN PCPN AGAIN FAVORING THE NORTH.
LIFTED INDEX ALSO FALLS TO AROUND ZERO SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW AFTERNOON TSTMS. CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH RIGHT NOW...SO
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012

A COOL MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THUR NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS FAVORING THE
NRN MTNS AT FIRST. THEN THE FOCUS OF PCPN WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE
SRN MTNS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE SNOW LEVEL
WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000 FEET OR MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. THIS
PUTS THE SAN JUANS UNDER THE GUN FOR POSSIBLE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. THE
GFS SHOWS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO FAR WITH THE NAM PRODUCING LESSER
AMOUNTS...WHICH IS KIND OF ODD. THE GRAND MESA MAY ALSO GET IN ON
THE ACTION IF THE GFS PANS OUT. MEANWHILE THE PACIFIC TROF HAS SINCE
CLOSED OFF AND WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD TO BE NEAR LAS VEGAS BY
EARLY SAT MORNING.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT CONVERGED TO A SOLUTIONS FOR THE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS
EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION...BUT CANNOT IGNORE THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THEY TEND
TO VERIFY BETTER. THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT PROVIDES A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE THAT DEPICTS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
IF THE GFS VERIFIES THE BEST...THEN THIS WEEKENDS STORM MAY
PRODUCE GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF PCPN AS THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE QUASI
STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFT BRINGS
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW INTO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...THEN THE
FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWARD AS THE GFS SHOWS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND A
TROWAL SIGNATURE. AT ANY RATE...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO MONDAY WITH
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS IN THE OFFERING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012

MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD TODAY
WITH G40KTS EXPECTED AT VALLEY AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCATTERED THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AND
AIRFIELDS...ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS MAY OBSCURE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT TUE APR 10 2012

NEAR RECORD WARMTH COUPLED WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING BY MIDDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS TO
TAP STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE
INCREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLER WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP HUMIDITIES UP A BIT. A FEW AREAS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
COLORADO MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ON
THURSDAY... BUT THE DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT DOES NOT WARRANT ANY
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME. SOMETHING TO WATCH...HOWEVER. AT LEAST
SCATTERED WETTING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ200>203-207-290-292-293.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ001-
002-006-007-011-020>022.

UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ430-443-444.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-
024-027-029.

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JAD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

447 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT TUE APR 10 2012

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ200>203-207-290-292-293.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ001-002-006-011-020>022.

UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ430-443-444.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ022-027-029.

SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JAD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

418 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THRU THIS AFTN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. MEANWHILE A RATHER
STG SFC GRADIENT WILL EXIST AS LOW PRESSURE RESIDES IN THE MTNS
WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS RESULTS IN RATHER STG
SELY LOW LVL FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS. MEANWHILE NONE OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS AGREE ON WHERE A CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY DVLP BY MID TO
LATE AFTN. THE HI RES WRF HAS A CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST EAST OF
DENVER WHILE THE HRRR HAS IT RIGHT OVER DENVER WHILE THE NAM HAS
NO BNDRY AT ALL WITH ESE WINDS FLOWING INTO THE FOOTHILLS. CAPES
BY LATE AFTN ARE FCST BE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH NO CAP IF HIGHS
RISE INTO THE MID 70S SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME WIDELY SCT TSTMS
DVLP IN IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS AND IN THE MTNS. OVER THE PLAINS
THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH MORE STABLE SO ANY CONVECTION THRU THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS SHOULD STAY WEST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON
LINE. SHEAR PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY LATE AFTN INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO COULD SEE A FEW SVR STORMS WITH
MARGINAL LARGE HAIL FROM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. IF
THERE IS A CONVERGENCE ZONE LIKE THE HRRR AND HI RES WRF SHOW LOW
LVL FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE BNDRY INCREASING HELICITY
VALUES SO NOT TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR. AS
FAR AS HIGHS YESTERDAY READINGS WERE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPECTED. FOR THIS AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO LINGERING
STATUS OVER THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ZONE NR DENVER.
HIGHS MADE NOT GET ABOVE ZONE OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER WHILE
READINGS CLOSER TO DENVER RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE
ERN AD SRN SUBURBS WHILE READINGS OVER THE NRN AND WRN AREAS ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PARK COUNTY AND THE HIGHER VALLEYS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITY AND POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING.

FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS
WRN CO. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE
COULD BRING A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ZONES 31 AND 33 AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE OVER NERN CO WILL SEE SOME LINGERING TSTMS IN
THE EARLY EVEING HOURS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE HOWEVER FURTHER EAST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE SO WILL ONLY MENTION A CHC OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS.

.LONG TERM...THIS WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
RATHER UNSETTLED AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. AND THEN CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS BEEN HINTING THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION WHEN LOOKING AT
THE MODEL QPG FIELDS...INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SIERRA NEVADA...BUT THEN OVER COLORADO BY ABOUT SUNDAY. OTHER
MODELS HAVE NOT PRODUCED QUITE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION AS THE GFS...
BUT HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT COLORADO WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN THE LATEST NAM
IS NOW SHOWING THE EASTERN PARTS OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM BEING OVER
COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE Q-G DIAGNOSTICS PACKAGE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS A 30-36 HOUR PERIOD WITH STRONG LIFT OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. ALL THIS
BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE LIKE THE GFS DEPICTS...BUT MOST OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THE MAIN PERIOD
OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS HOW WARM OR COLD THE SYSTEM WILL BE.
LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS MAY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON
SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET OR HIGHER. THE MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY
GOING TO BE WELCOME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HOW MUCH OF
FALLS IN THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. WITH THE EVENT STILL
OUT AT DAYS 4 AND 5...POPS ARE STILL IN THE CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY. THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK IS
GOING TO DEPEND ON WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RE-BUILD OVER THE STATE.
FOR NOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION...
A WELL DEFINED DENVER CYCLONE WAS NR DIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ABUNDANT STRATUS OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND SHOULD AFFECT BOTH BJC AND DIA THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG AROUND DIA WHICH ALWAYS SEEMS TO HAPPEN IN THIS TYPE OF
SCENARIO MORE TIMES THAN NOT. WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS
BY 16Z. FOR THIS AFTN AM NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN HOW SFC FEATURES
WILL DEVELOP AS SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT OF POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ZONE BY MID TO LATE AFTN. IF
BNDRY ENDS UP WEST OF DIA THEN GUSTY SELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH MAY
DVLP BY 21Z HOWEVER IF IT ENDS UP JUST TO THE EAST THEN WINDS
COULD BE MORE NE AND NOT AS STG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BNDRY
BEING WEST OF THE AIRPORT. AFTER 22Z THRU 02Z WIDELY SCT TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE AIRPORT. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
FOR A SVR STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HAIL TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE PROBABLY
AROUND 10%.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE MORE SLY AND COULD REMAIN RATHER
GUSTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SSW WITH LIGHER SPEEDS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ211-213-214.

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1021 AM EDT WED APR 11 2012

.UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING ANALYSIS OF THE MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS
NARROW CAPE WITH MODIFIED SURFACE CAPE AROUND 900 J/KG. PWAT IS
ONLY 1.07 INCHES, SO THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL BE WITH REGARDS TO
MOISTURE, OR LACK THEREOF. MEAN FLOW IS WESTERLY SO ONCE SEA
BREEZES DEVELOP THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE INTERIOR/ATLANTIC
COAST. HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
OVER ESPECIALLY BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET
MUCH OF ANYTHING GOING DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTORMS AS THEY JUST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. SO NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE MADE THIS
MORNING. /GREGORIA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT WED APR 11 2012/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. THIS WILL CREATE AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR
10 KNOTS. AT KAPF A SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING A WESTERLY FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, HOWEVER, THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT WED APR 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE OF SFC BOUNDARIES
MOVING ACROSS S FL. ONE SUCH BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
AS I WRITE THIS AND HAS GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS INLAND COLLIER
AND HENDRY COUNTIES THIS EVENING. IN FACT, THESE SHRA ARE FINALLY
JUST NOW DISSIPATING. THE QUESTION IS HOW WILL THIS BOUNDARY
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY? ALL OF THE MODELS PICK UP ON
THE FEATURE BUT WHEREAS THE 12Z NAM RUN YESTERDAY WAS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS COMPLETELY BACKED OFF ON
THIS IDEA FROM THE 00Z RUN. HOWEVER, THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SHORT TERM RAPID REFRESH
WHICH NOW GOES OUT TO 18Z IS SHOWING A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS JUST
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AFTER 17Z. SO GIVEN THIS AND THE WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW, WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER OVER
INTERIOR AND E CST ZONES. A SECOND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY MORNING AND ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DYNAMICS WILL BE PRESENT, THIS WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO
BOUNDARIES AND ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. FOR
THIS REASON, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON TOO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WHICH AMPLIFIES A RIDGE FROM THE GOFMEX
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A MASSIVE
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE WEEKEND AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE EVEN FURTHER
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BY
SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK SETTING UP A DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE PENINSULA SO LOOKS
LIKE A DRY FCST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS DOES SHOW A FEW SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND THE SFC RIDGE WHICH MAY SET UP A FEW ATLANTIC SHRA
BUT TIMING OF THIS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT SO WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAVE OUT OF FCST FOR NOW.

MARINE...TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S FL WATERS BUT
WILL DETERIORATE LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS A NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. BUT FOR NOW, LOOKS
LIKE THE SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM WILL REMAIN AT 6 FEET OR LESS.

FIRE WEATHER...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DIP
BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR AROUND FOUR HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
GLADES, HENDRY AND INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES WITH AN ERC OF 30-34 SO
WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHER AREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL SEE THE RH VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40
PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 67 81 67 / 20 10 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 69 83 69 / 20 10 20 20
MIAMI 84 68 84 69 / 20 10 20 20
NAPLES 82 65 84 64 / 10 10 10 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

938 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012

.UPDATE...
INCREASED 1ST PERIOD POPS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE IS LINGERING IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC DRY
SLOT. THE 12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.57 WHICH IS ROUGHLY
250% OF NORMAL AND IS THE HIGHEST MEASURED PWAT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE LATEST
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS...WHICH ARE RUNNING AN AVERAGE 3 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. COMBINE THIS MOISTURE WITH A
LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING AND WE`LL LIKELY SEE BUILD-UPS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY LATE MORNING. DRYING IS STILL ANTICIPATED
LATER TODAY FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT UNTIL THEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK

.PREV DISCUSSION...256 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THOUGH WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO CONCERNING ACROSS
THE WEST.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. SHY

SHY

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON...................... 77 40 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 73 29 59 23 / 10 5 5 5
CUBA............................ 76 34 63 28 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 71 31 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 67 29 55 23 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 72 33 62 27 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 69 35 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 75 38 68 31 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 68 34 55 27 / 20 5 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 72 44 62 38 / 10 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 70 42 62 35 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 34 61 26 / 10 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 59 33 51 28 / 20 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 29 55 27 / 20 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 72 35 62 27 / 10 0 0 0
MORA............................ 66 38 62 31 / 20 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 79 35 70 31 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 71 43 61 37 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 76 40 65 34 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 76 46 68 41 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 47 69 42 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 44 71 38 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 79 44 70 39 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 81 42 72 37 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 79 44 69 39 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 84 45 77 40 / 10 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 77 39 66 34 / 20 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 77 42 68 37 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 74 40 64 34 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 72 40 62 34 / 20 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 75 43 67 37 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 79 40 71 36 / 10 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 72 43 63 38 / 20 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 67 43 67 37 / 50 30 0 0
RATON........................... 74 39 71 35 / 50 20 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 73 39 70 34 / 50 20 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 40 66 34 / 30 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 72 49 77 43 / 60 30 0 0
ROY............................. 70 46 72 39 / 50 20 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 79 49 77 42 / 50 20 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 79 47 76 43 / 40 10 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 81 54 82 47 / 60 30 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 79 52 80 46 / 50 30 0 0
PORTALES........................ 80 52 81 45 / 50 30 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 50 85 44 / 40 20 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 86 51 85 47 / 30 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 83 46 78 41 / 20 5 0 0
ELK............................. 77 46 72 41 / 20 5 0 0

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-105-106-109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ502-505-506-508.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

952 AM EDT WED APR 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 944 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED 700-500MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. BEST LOCATION FOR
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY FROM WHITE RIVER
JCT SOUTHWARD. PERIODS OF RAIN (AND SNOW ABOVE 2000 FT) WILL BE
MORE FREQUENT ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/NRN GREEN
MTNS WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF SNOWFALL
REMAINS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER SUMMITS. COLD POOL ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE TO CREATE WEAK INSTABILITY...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS DURING THE AFTN HRS. THIS IS
SHOWN BY THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS FROM THE LOCALLY RUN BTV-
4KMWRF AND 3KM HRRR MODEL...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY/S
OBSERVED ACTIVITY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME GRAUPEL PRODUCTION AND
SMALL CORES OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS IN A FEW SPOTS. SFC WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BUT WILL BECOME NLY 10-15 MPH THIS
AFTN IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLOWLY OWING TO CLOUD
COVER...REACHING THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR AFTN HIGHS. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL KEEP IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AS THE
REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS DEPARTING LOW.
ON THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION...AS BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER ON THURSDAY...SO WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE ALSO
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST AND BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. GIVEN FULL
SUN ON FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS APPROACH 60
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE INTACT OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. MDLS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF FRNT/LOW APPROACH. GFS IS APPEARING
TO BE MUCH TOO FAST WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THRU THE AREA...WHILE THE
LATEST ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HRS SLOWER THAN THE LATEST GFS. BOTH MDLS
SHOW LOW MVG ALONG THE BORDER BFR FRNT ARRIVES LATE SAT/SAT NGT.
PLAN ON SPLITTING DIFFERENCE WITH THESE TWO MDLS...CLRING REGION
SLOWLY OUT TOWARDS SUNDAY EVENING. MONDAY HAS SFC HIGH PRESSURE W/
FRNT LAGGING OVER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STRONG UPPER RIDGE SUPPORT
WITH ITS SFC COMPONENT WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW ARRIVAL OF NEXT
FRNT/LOW FOR LATE TUESDAY. WARM FRNT LOOKS TO WASH OUT AS IT
PUSHES NORTHWARD... PUTTING MAIN PRECIP EMPHASIS WITH THE CD
FRNT...WHICH WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL LATE TUESDAY ON INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ARE DEPENDENT CLDS/PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT. MUCH OF SATURDAY LOOKS GD ATTM WITH SOME
CLDS AHEAD OF FRNT. 850/925 TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +8C/+10C...WHICH
WILL BRING HIGHS NEAR 60-62F FOR SATURDAY...AND 50S/L60S FOR
SUNDAY. WAA AHEAD OF FRNT FOR MON NGT/TUES WILL ALSO BRING DAYTIME
HIGHS NEAR 60F. MAINLY -RW EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HRS FOR
BOTH UPCOMING SYSTEMS...BUT AT NITE WITH SOME CD AIR DRAINING IN
ON BACKSIDE...-RW WILL TRANSITION OVER TO -SW ESPECIALLY OVER HIR
TRRN.

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY MIX OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS THRU
FORECAST PERIOD W/ BKN-OVC020-060. A FEW HRS BLW OVC010 FOR SLK IN
LGT -SW W/ VSBY 4-5SM. ALL SITES WILL SEE VCSH WITH LOW CLD COVER
LIGNERING THRU PERIOD. WINDS LGT/VAR BECM NNW 5-15KTS BY 15Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
THE FORECAST AREA. MAINLY VFR AT VALLEY SITES WITH A FEW PERIODS
OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MOSTLY MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AT KSLK IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE AFTN...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. FORECAST WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN/BOYD
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

355 PM MDT WED APR 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...WITH
STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. OVER THE PLAINS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS DENVER AREA
WITH LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATING CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG URBAN
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN LARIMER COUNTY SOUTH INTO EASTERN DOUGLAS
AND NORTHWEST ELBERT COUNTIES. STILL QUITE A BIT OF CIN STILL
HOLDING ON ACROSS PLAINS...WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING AIRMASS
STILL CAPPED. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR BY THE EVENING AS WAVE HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
FEEL THAT ANY BOUNDARIES FROM MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD HELP
ERODE ANY LINGERING CAPS. MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE BY 00Z AND
PUSH IT NORTHEAST INTO WELD COUNTY. THE LATEST HRRR RUN STILL
HOLDS ONTO SOME SORT OF A CONVERGENCE AREA FROM EAST OF DIA INTO
NORTHWEST ELBERT COUNTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND MAY STILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR THE STRONGER STORMS. THREATS TO BE HAIL ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL STILL NEED
TO WATCH OUT FOR WEAK TORNADOES ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. WAVE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...FEEL THE CURRENT POPS LOOK
REASONABLE. MODEL QPF GENERALLY LIGHT...THOUGH GFS LOOKS A BIT
ROBUST. ANOTHER NEXT WEAKER WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING ACROSS
UTAH...THOUGH CONVECTION NOT AS ABUNDANT. MODELS PICK UP ON THIS
SECOND WAVE AS WELL...BRINGING IT ACROSS THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THERE IS SOME LIGHT MODEL QPF WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS AREA...
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDED SOME LOW POPS FOR FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS FOR THIS WAVE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR NORTHEAST CORNER TOWARDS MORNING. STILL SOME MOISTURE ACROSS
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER ZONES 31
AND 33. AS FOR RED FLAG HILITES...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WARNINGS FOR
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING..THOUGH HUMIDITY
READINGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS PARK COUNTY. ON
THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK QG ASCENT
SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM AND
GFS GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THE POPS AND WEATHER LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK COOL ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW.

.LONG TERM...SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE MODELS TODAY ON THIS WEEKENDS
STORM...THOUGH STILL SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY. THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR NOW IS LOOKING LIKE THE
TEMPERATURES.

AHEAD OF THE STORM WE WILL HAVE DRY SSW FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PALMER DIVIDE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD BE APPROACHING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH THE
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND THEY COULD TURN NORTHERLY AND BRING
IN COOLER AIR. WHILE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRY...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING BRINGING MORE CLOUD COVER. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE...BUT I DID TRIM HIGHS BACK A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

FOR THE MAIN FEATURE...BETTER AGREEMENT NOW ON THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVES...WITH CONSENSUS SHOWING A SLOW MOVING LOW
WITH THE SHORTWAVES MAKING IT WOBBLE AS IT MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES.
GFS HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY BUT HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING
FASTER NOW...RESULTING IN ABOUT A 30 HOUR PERIOD OF GOOD UPSLOPE.
ECMWF IS NOT AS SPLIT BUT IS A BIT FASTER. GFS HAS THE LOW COMING
RIGHT OVER US...AND AS A RESULT PUTS DENVER ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS ITS LOW MORE
CONSOLIDATED THAN YESTERDAYS WITH A COMPROMISE POSITION ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS SOLUTION IS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE AND
WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. STILL A LONG PERIOD...MAYBE 24
HOURS...OF GOOD UPSLOPE WITH LOW STABILITY AND LOTS OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THE ODDS OF A COUPLE FEET OF SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS ARE
LOOKING BETTER. GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 50 INCHES OF SNOW IN ITS
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREA...AND THE ECMWF NUMBERS ARE JUST A LITTLE LOWER
DUE TO THE FASTER MOVEMENT.

THE DETAILS WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT FOR THE PLAINS PRECIP...THOUGH A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING A WETTING RAIN/SNOW EVENT ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE TEMPERATURE. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS THE SNOW LEVEL RIGHT AROUND THE DENVER AREA...AT THIS
POINT WOULD FAVOR THE IDEA OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AND STAYING SNOW ON SUNDAY BUT A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER WAY WOULD
MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE. WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE...THIS COULD STILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ESPECIALLY THE WEIGHT
OF THE WET SNOW ON VEGETATION. TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED WITH SOIL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND AIR TEMPERATURES
THAT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND FREEZING. HIGH MODEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LOOK UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE METHODOLOGY
UNDERESTIMATING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT EVEN WITH SOME RAIN AND
LOW SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY WET SNOW.

FAIRLY QUIET FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY STABLE AND DRY
ON THE PLAINS...HINTS OF A LITTLE MOISTURE IN WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SO I HELD ON TO LOW POPS THERE. I DID START TRIMMING
TEMPERATURES MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOR SOME EXPECTED SNOW
COVER IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...OTHERWISE IT WOULD BE A FAIRLY
PROMPT WARMUP.

.AVIATION...CONVECTION FIRING ALONG FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE...WITH DENVER AREA STILL CAPPED. STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT
STORMS AFFECTED THE AREA AIRPORTS...FEEL THE VCTS THE BEST WAY TO
GO FOR NOW. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NEXT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH...THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH CEILINGS OF 5000-6000 FEET
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING AS SWITCHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS TO TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z THURSDAY
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 12 KTS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211-213-214.

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...D-L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

1050 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012

.UPDATE...STRATUS ACROSS AREA SLOW TO ERODE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
URBAN CORRIDOR...THOUGH SATELLITE INDICATE SOME EROSION ON THE
WEST EDGE OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY. STILL THINKING THAT IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD OCCUR BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
WHERE A CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR
STILL MAINTAINING THE ZONE ACROSS DENVER...WHILE THE RUC AND NAM
DO NOT SHOW ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH SOUTHEASTERLIES UP TO THE
FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE STORM DEVELOPMENT
AND CONCENTRATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG IF HIGHS CAN REACH THE MID 70S. WITH THE SLOW EROSION OF
THE STRATUS...IT MAY WELL BE LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE THE LOWER TO
MID 70S OCCUR. STILL NOT A CLEAR CUT SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION MAINLY FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. IF THE
CONVERGENCE AREA DOES DEVELOP SOMEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE ALONG WITH A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. CANNOT TAKE OUT THE SEVERE THREAT JUST YET.
SO...FOR NOW JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY AND WEATHER GRIDS.
RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKING ON TRACK FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...
THOUGH HUMIDITY READINGS MAY BE A BIT HIGH ACROSS PARK COUNTY.

.AVIATION...STRATUS SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS...THOUGH
APA FINALLY BROKE OUT OF THE LOWER STUFF. DELAYED THE DISSIPATION
OF THE LOWER STRATUS AT DEN AND BJC...LOOKS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
STILL THINKING THAT THE STRATUS SHOULD BE GONE BY 18Z AND WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND FOR THE UPCOMING ISSUANCE. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES...WHICH WILL
AFFECT STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...NOT SURE A TEMPO
THUNDER GROUP IS WARRANTED. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCTS AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT TAF TRENDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012/

SHORT TERM...SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THRU THIS AFTN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. MEANWHILE A RATHER
STG SFC GRADIENT WILL EXIST AS LOW PRESSURE RESIDES IN THE MTNS
WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS RESULTS IN RATHER STG
SELY LOW LVL FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS. MEANWHILE NONE OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS AGREE ON WHERE A CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY DVLP BY MID TO
LATE AFTN. THE HI RES WRF HAS A CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST EAST OF
DENVER WHILE THE HRRR HAS IT RIGHT OVER DENVER WHILE THE NAM HAS
NO BNDRY AT ALL WITH ESE WINDS FLOWING INTO THE FOOTHILLS. CAPES
BY LATE AFTN ARE FCST BE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH NO CAP IF HIGHS
RISE INTO THE MID 70S SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME WIDELY SCT TSTMS
DVLP IN IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS AND IN THE MTNS. OVER THE PLAINS
THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH MORE STABLE SO ANY CONVECTION THRU THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS SHOULD STAY WEST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON
LINE. SHEAR PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY LATE AFTN INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO COULD SEE A FEW SVR STORMS WITH
MARGINAL LARGE HAIL FROM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. IF
THERE IS A CONVERGENCE ZONE LIKE THE HRRR AND HI RES WRF SHOW LOW
LVL FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE BNDRY INCREASING HELICITY
VALUES SO NOT TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR. AS
FAR AS HIGHS YESTERDAY READINGS WERE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPECTED. FOR THIS AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO LINGERING
STATUS OVER THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ZONE NR DENVER.
HIGHS MADE NOT GET ABOVE ZONE OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER WHILE
READINGS CLOSER TO DENVER RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE
ERN AD SRN SUBURBS WHILE READINGS OVER THE NRN AND WRN AREAS ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PARK COUNTY AND THE HIGHER VALLEYS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITY AND POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING.

LONG TERM...THIS WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
RATHER UNSETTLED AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. AND THEN CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS BEEN HINTING THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION WHEN LOOKING AT
THE MODEL QPG FIELDS...INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SIERRA NEVADA...BUT THEN OVER COLORADO BY ABOUT SUNDAY. OTHER
MODELS HAVE NOT PRODUCED QUITE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION AS THE GFS...
BUT HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT COLORADO WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN THE LATEST NAM
IS NOW SHOWING THE EASTERN PARTS OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM BEING OVER
COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE Q-G DIAGNOSTICS PACKAGE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS A 30-36 HOUR PERIOD WITH STRONG LIFT OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. ALL THIS
BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE LIKE THE GFS DEPICTS...BUT MOST OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THE MAIN PERIOD
OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS HOW WARM OR COLD THE SYSTEM WILL BE.
LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS MAY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON
SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET OR HIGHER. THE MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY
GOING TO BE WELCOME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HOW MUCH OF
FALLS IN THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. WITH THE EVENT STILL
OUT AT DAYS 4 AND 5...POPS ARE STILL IN THE CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY. THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK IS
GOING TO DEPEND ON WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RE-BUILD OVER THE STATE.
FOR NOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION...
A WELL DEFINED DENVER CYCLONE WAS NR DIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ABUNDANT STRATUS OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND SHOULD AFFECT BOTH BJC AND DIA THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG AROUND DIA WHICH ALWAYS SEEMS TO HAPPEN IN THIS TYPE OF
SCENARIO MORE TIMES THAN NOT. WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP LOW CLOUDS
BY 16Z. FOR THIS AFTN AM NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN HOW SFC FEATURES
WILL DEVELOP AS SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT OF POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ZONE BY MID TO LATE AFTN. IF
BNDRY ENDS UP WEST OF DIA THEN GUSTY SELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH MAY
DVLP BY 21Z HOWEVER IF IT ENDS UP JUST TO THE EAST THEN WINDS
COULD BE MORE NE AND NOT AS STG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BNDRY
BEING WEST OF THE AIRPORT. AFTER 22Z THRU 02Z WIDELY SCT TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE AIRPORT. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
FOR A SVR STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HAIL TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE PROBABLY
AROUND 10%.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE MORE SLY AND COULD REMAIN RATHER
GUSTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SSW WITH LIGHER SPEEDS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM
NOON UNTIL 8PM MDT FOR COZ211..213 AND 214.

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

237 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER FLORIDA WILL PULL OUT
AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE DOWN THE STATE AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WHILE
BECOMING DIFFUSE ON THU-THU NIGHT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THE LACK OF MOISTURE COULD INHIBIT SHOWER
AND POSSIBLE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALL TOGETHER. HOWEVER, KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTERIOR-EAST GIVEN THE CU FIELD ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE HRRR CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN THU NIGHT-FRI...BUT JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS TO ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON AN INCREASING
NE WIND FLOW. SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR BROWARD
/MIAMI-DADE FRI.

A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN A TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME. GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS.

RIP CURRENTS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASING
ONSHORE WIND FLOW.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE NEXT WEEK AS WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST.

.MARINE...LOW WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASE SEAS
ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND...NEAR 20 KT.

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL
OCCUR OVER GLADES, HENDRY, AND INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A FIRE DANGER STMT REMAINS IN EFFECT. RH`S WILL
MODIFY A BIT THU-FRI BUT STILL COULD FALL DOWN TO NEAR CRITICAL
LEVELS SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 65 82 65 81 / 10 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 83 69 82 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 68 84 68 82 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 64 85 63 84 / - 10 10 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/GREGORIA
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

144 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP ALONG THE EAST COAST TERMINALS
AND ALONG THE GULF COAST AT KAPF THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INTERIOR MAY SPARK A FEW
SHRAS/TSRAS. IF THIS HAPPENS...DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM EDT WED APR 11 2012/

UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING ANALYSIS OF THE MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS
NARROW CAPE WITH MODIFIED SURFACE CAPE AROUND 900 J/KG. PWAT IS
ONLY 1.07 INCHES, SO THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL BE WITH REGARDS TO
MOISTURE, OR LACK THEREOF. MEAN FLOW IS WESTERLY SO ONCE SEA
BREEZES DEVELOP THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE INTERIOR/ATLANTIC
COAST. HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
OVER ESPECIALLY BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET
MUCH OF ANYTHING GOING DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTORMS AS THEY JUST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. SO NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE MADE THIS
MORNING. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT WED APR 11 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT WED APR 11 2012/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 67 81 67 80 / 10 30 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 83 69 81 / 10 20 20 10
MIAMI 68 84 69 81 / 10 20 20 10
NAPLES 65 84 64 87 / 10 10 10 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/DG
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

636 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012

...PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE WELL INLAND THURSDAY MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT. MODELS
SHOW A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. PIVOTS OFFSHORE. THIS
SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL INTO THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S WELL INLAND AND AWAY FROM LAKES MOULTRIE AND MARION.
LOCAL FROST TOOLS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FROST FORMATION AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 36 DEGREES...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
ON THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY AND MAINTAIN A MENTION OF
PATCHY FROST ALONG AND NORTH OF A PERKINS-HILLTONIA-CROCKETVILLE-
CANADYS-RIDGEVILLE-JAMESTOWN LINE /AND AWAY AND DOWNWIND FROM
LAKES MOULTRIE AND MARION INCLUDING MONCKS CORNER/. THE FROST
POTENTIAL WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS
ANY DECREASE IN THE EXPECTED SPEEDS WILL PUSH BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS INTO MORE FAVORABLE FROST FORMATION TERRITORY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO OUR GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS FOR
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO REFLECT
SHORT TERM TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MIN TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY THEN
MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE U.S.. AFTER A COLD
MORNING START...THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY IN THE
DAY. HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT ENE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE RIGHT OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL SETUP
VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...AND HAVE GONE A DEG OR TWO BELOW
LATEST GUIDANCE. NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INLAND...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY TO SCATTERED
FROST WELL INLAND. THE FROST FORECAST WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH THE SURFACE TDS RECOVER OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE...EVEN FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS...SHOWS TDS ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN THE MARGINAL
NATURE AND UNCERTAINTY...HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY FROST TO THE
FORECAST.

FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC IN THE MORNING...THEN IT MOVES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WELL NORTH OF US BY AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE SEEMS TO REINFORCE THE SURFACE RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN AREA BY AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGS WARMER...
THUS EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL VEER TO ESE BY
LATE DAY...WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S RIGHT AT
THE SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO ENE OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW ESE. THIS WILL
MODERATE TEMPS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50...WHICH
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST WEST OF
THE REGION WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SETUP
A SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE LARGE
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY A CLOSED UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP AND
SIT DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO A TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FOR THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
HEIGHTS RISING UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPS WILL MODERATE NICELY AND
UPPER 80S MAY EVENTUALLY COVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
FORECAST IS DRY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT FRONT WILL NOT APPROACH
UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.

.MARINE...
18Z NAM AND INCOMING RUC DATA SUGGEST WINDS WILL SURGE HARDER
THAN EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. LOOKS LIKE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT ARE LIKELY FOR ALL LEGS OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
HAVE RAISED FLAGS FOR THESE AREAS WITH VARIOUS START AND ENDING
TIMES. SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY IN THE FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FETCH...
BUT 6 FT SEAS WILL LINGER IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MODERATE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE
WATERS TO START OFF THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PINCHED
ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS TO SUSTAIN WINDS 15-20
KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE REGION WITH SSE
LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL BE 20-25 PERCENT OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING ANY
CRITICAL RH OR WIND ISSUES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ354.

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

101 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED 700-500MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. SHALLOW INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED OWING TO COMBINATION
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD POOL ALOFT. SEEING AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CELLULAR CONVECTION ON RADAR MOSAIC COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS FROM THE LOCALLY RUN BTV-
4KMWRF AND 3KM HRRR MODEL...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY/S
OBSERVED ACTIVITY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME GRAUPEL PRODUCTION AND
SMALL CORES OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS IN A FEW SPOTS. SNOW LEVELS
GENERALLY AOA 3000 FT THIS AFTN...SO ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE HIGH SUMMITS.

SFC WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BUT WILL BECOME NLY
10-15 MPH THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLOWLY OWING TO CLOUD
COVER...REACHING THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR AFTN HIGHS. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY MIX OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS THRU
FORECAST PERIOD W/ BKN-OVC020-060. A FEW HRS BLW OVC010 FOR SLK IN
LGT -SW W/ VSBY 4-5SM. ALL SITES WILL SEE VCSH WITH LOW CLD COVER
LIGNERING THRU PERIOD. WINDS LGT/VAR BECM NNW 5-15KTS BY 15Z.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN/BOYD
FIRE WEATHER...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

850 AM PDT WED APR 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS ONE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON COAST. MODEST INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OF TODAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE BREAKS IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME COOLER WITH SNOW LEVELS DIPPING TO SOME OF THE CASCADE PASSES
BY THURSDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT STALLED
OFFSHORE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS PUSHED INLAND...SPREADING LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY
TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THINK CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING AND A SURFACE SOURCE FOR UPLIFT.

THE NEXT TROUGH IS RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM AND IS
ELONGATING INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE
PACIFIC NW...WITH MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WILL HAVE A COLD POOL OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT WITH GFS
FORECASTING -13C 700 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW OREGON THURSDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW PASS LEVEL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND....BUT FAIRLY LIGHT QPF IS
EXPECTED. MODELS FORECAST GREATER MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THIS
FEATURE AND THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND SHOWERS WILL DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TOWARD ANOTHER DRY PERIOD. AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW PUSHES EAST OF THE
REGION...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT BEFORE THE RIDGING
CAN BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN LOOK DRY
WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. BY MON...THE RIDGE AXIS IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST OF THE CASCADES ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER LOOKING LIKELY NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SPREADING WARM FRONTAL RAIN ONTO THE COAST LATE
MON...WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND TUE AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
ONSHORE. JFP

.AVIATION...SOUTH FLOW ALOFT BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE ALOFT OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH A SHARP TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. VERY WEAK
NW FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. MOIST AIR MASS IS RESULTING IN HIGHLY
VARIABLE CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS IN SOME
OF THE HEAVIER RAIN AREAS AND VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE MOSTLY VFR AFT 19Z WITH THE STRATIFORM RAIN
TURNING MORE SHOWERY. NAM AND HRRR MODELS SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
HELP SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR
MASS IS NOT THAT UNSTABLE BUT WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND IT MAY
NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION. EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TO BE ISOLATED WITH MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM. TOPS OF ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
COULD BE AROUND 25K FT. SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT CONTINUED VARIABILITY FOR CIGS DURING
MORNING ARRIVALS. PLAN ON PREVAILING CIGS AROUND AROUND 2500 FT
BUT COULD BE LOWER TO AROUND 1100 FEET ON THE APPROACHES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A RETURN TO
PREVAILING MVFR OR BETTER BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION AFTER 21Z. SCHNEIDER

.MARINE...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. MORNING
MODELS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. STILL EXPECT
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING. LESS OF A THREAT
OF GALES AT THIS TIME SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THAT IS OUT. GWW, ENP, AND LOCALLY RUN SWAN ALL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RATHER SQUARE WAVES REACHING THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
FOR PORTIONS OF SATURDAY. THESE ARE SOURCED FROM THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LOW OFF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND CURRENTLY BELIEVE
MODELS ARE NOT DECAYING THE TRAIN QUITE FAST ENOUGH, BUT WILL KEEP
WATCHING FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE OPEN SEAS TO CONFIRM. SCHNEIDER

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM
PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.