Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/10/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

831 PM MDT MON APR 9 2012

.UPDATE...EASTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. MODELS
SHOWING FOG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AFTER 09Z. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST IT WILL MAKE IT. THE NAM AND RUC SHOW THE FOG NOSING
NORTH OVER LINCOLN...WASHINGTON...MORGAN AND NORTHEAST WELD
COUNTIES. WILL EXTEND THE AREA OF FOG SLIGHTLY NORTH BUT KEEP IT
EAST OF THE METRO AREA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.

.AVIATION...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 06Z. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS FROM 09-15Z. DO NOT THINK THEY WILL MAKE IT INTO KDEN. PUT
A VCFG IN THE TAF TO SHOW THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE FOG MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT KDEN. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THEY DO THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
KDEN...BUT POSSIBLY AFFECT KAPA.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM MDT MON APR 9 2012/

SHORT TERM...WEAK FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS PLAINS EARLIER TODAY
BROUGHT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS CONTINUING ACROSS MOUNTAINS. SOME CUMULUS TRYING TO FORM
ALONG FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE...WITH LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS AREA WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTS
WESTWARD FROM KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND WILL EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. ON TUESDAY...MODELS HINT AT A
WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH
COULD BRING SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS FAR WEST AS THE FRONT
RANGE. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE STRATUS AND FOG OUT OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BY AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AS FAR
WEST AS THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT CAPES IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE ALONG FOOTHILLS...URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER
DIVIDE AREAS WITH NO CAP. SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. FURTHER EAST...AIRMASS LOOKS TOO CAPPED
FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OR SURVIVE. WITH NO MID LEVEL DYNAMICS
EXPECTED...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE WEAK...WITH ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ACROSS MOUNTAINS...NO STORMS EXPECTED AS DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS PLAINS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES SLIGHTLY AS A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO COLORADO. IT MOVES ACROSS SOMETIME EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH IT BEING PRETTY STRONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS BENIGN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEN THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK
UPWARD ENERGY LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. BY THURSDAY
DOWNWARD MOTION IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA. AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...UPWARD MOTION COMMENCES IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY DECENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY
THURSDAY... ALL THE THE CWA HAS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
PROGGED. A DENVER CYCLONE SHOULD BE GOING TUESDAY EVENING...AND
SHOULD GET GOING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MOISTURE...MODELS
STILL HAVE PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED OVER THE
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM SHOWS IS
TO BE DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST INTO THE LOWER FOOTHILLS THAN THE
GFS DOES. THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT PROGGS FROM
THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 40S F COVERING ALL THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM HAS THESE READINGS INTO THE
LOWER FOOTHILLS...THE GFS HAS THEM OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS F OR LOWER BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT THETA-E AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS THIS LOCATED A BIT FURTHER
TO THE EAST. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS KEEP A STRONG STABLE LAYER OVER
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE PLAINS BOTH TUESDAY EVENING AND LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...
FOOTHILLS...AND WESTERN PLAINS. THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT CAPE FROM
THE DIVIDE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING.
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE NOTED FOR LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM HAS
THE BEST CAPE IN PLACE OVER THE SAME LOCATION AS TUESDAY
EVENING...THE GFS HAS IT FURTHER TO THE EAST. CROSS SECTIONS HAVE
A FAIRLY DECENT SHEAR PROFILE PROGGED FOR TUESDAY EVENING AND LATE
DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH 20-30% THUNDERSTORM POPS FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY EVENING AND LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE FAR
EAST WILL MAINLY HAVE RAIN SHOWERS. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ONLY. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...BUT
COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. ON THURSDAY ...READINGS ARE 2-6
C COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY`S...BUT WITH THE STATUS FLUSHED EAST OF
THE NORTHEAST CORNER...IT WILL BE WARMER THERE. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY....WITH WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. ON SATURDAY...THERE IS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WEST OF COLORADO. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH
LOCATIONS OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATIONS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGIES
ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED OVER THE
CWA... WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. ONE
MONDAY...THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED LITTLE...WITH THE CLOSED FEATURE
OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...THE GFS BRINGS
A COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE INTO THE PLAINS BY MID DAY SATURDAY...THE
ECMWF DOESN`T HAVE THIS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. BOTH HAVE UPSLOPE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERALL...YOU "GOTTA" BELIEVE THERE`LL BE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT CONCERNING ANY
SPECIFICS...FORGET IT. AGAIN ...THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOKED THE MOST
SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHER WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM SATURDAY`S (TWO DAYS
AGO) 12Z RUNS. WILL NOT ALTER THE DAY 4-7 INIT GFE GRIDS VERY
MUCH.

AVIATION...WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE THE SOUTHEAST...SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST AS DRAINAGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS. DENVER CYCLONE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AIRPORTS FROM 12Z TO 16Z...BEST
CHANCE TO BE WELL EAST OF DENVER. WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OUT
OF THE AREA TAFS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FOOTHILLS
URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE AFTER 18Z. THREAT OF A STORM
AFFECTING AREA AIRPORTS LOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...MEIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

141 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.AVIATION...THRU. 18Z MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN EAST
SFC WIND WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS WITH MODERATE GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED AT SITE APF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS TODAY AND MONDAY. SCT/BKN CU FIELD WITH BASES AROUND 4-5
KFT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY...BUT
ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 2 TO 4 FEET THIS MORNING DOWN TO 2 FEET OR
LESS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COMBINE SEAS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO DECREASE FROM 5 TO 7 FEET THIS MORNING DOWN
TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SEAS FOR TODAY. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
WILL BE UNDER A SCEC CONDITION.

FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEW POINTS IN GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES SHOULD FALL DOWN TO AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
VERY DRY GROUNDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA, EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THEY WILL BE IN
THE 40S AND AROUND 30 OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THE ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENT WILL ALSO BE IN THE LOWER 30S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN EAST
SFC WIND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 18-20KT AFT 14Z./KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A 4 TO 5 MB GRADIENT EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE STATE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE MID
LEVELS WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WITH DRY AIR AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE.
UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS INDICATE LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS ABOUT 8 KFT
DEEP WITH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 6-8 KFT
BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS AND LATEST AIRCRAFT BASED PROFILES.
CERTAINLY BELOW THE INVERSION BASE THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER,
LATEST TRENDS AND LOCAL HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM RUNS AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE HRRR SHOW EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY TRENDING TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS OVERNIGHT IN LINE WITH THE RADAR
TRENDS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
BENIGN WITH MAIN IMPACT CONTINUING TO BE ON THE MARINE SIDE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE REMINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE CONSENSUS AMONG
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALONG WITH THAT STRONG NE
WINDS WILL START WEAKENING TODAY. THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT ABOVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHEN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NE. THE UPPER AIR WAVE PATTERN DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN US/WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINING IN PLACE AND FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
THEREFORE NO CHANGES IN LARGE SCALE FORCING.

ALL IN ALL, SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH EMPHASIS ON ADJACENT WATERS, AND FLORIDA
STRAITS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OFFSHORE THE SW
FLORIDA COAST. THEN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES PREVAILING BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMP WISE, OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL. OVERALL
A PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD.

MARINE...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. ALONG WITH THAT THE SEAS WILL BE COMING DOWN DURING
THE DAY DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE MORNING
OFF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES AND DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. SWELLS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO BE
SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. THE PEAK PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SWELLS
IS NOT THAT LONG (AROUND 10 SECONDS) SO HIGH SURF IS NOT A BIG CONCERN
BUT CERTAINLY A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. AFTER TODAY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH SEAS
REMAINING BELOW 4 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
4 DAYS.

FIRE WEATHER...
AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP TODAY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 35 PERCENT PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY AND SECTIONS OF GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORE. THE SAME SCENARIO IS
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MEETING
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WHICH WILL BE EVEN LESS LIKELY AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 65 79 65 83 / - - - 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 80 70 83 / - - - 10
MIAMI 68 81 69 84 / - - - 10
NAPLES 62 84 63 84 / - - - 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE
BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MIAMI FL

948 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY...BUT
ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEW POINTS IN GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES SHOULD FALL DOWN TO AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
VERY DRY GROUNDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA, EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THEY WILL BE IN
THE 40S AND AROUND 30 OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THE ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENT WILL ALSO BE IN THE LOWER 30S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN EAST
SFC WIND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 18-20KT AFT 14Z./KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012/

TEMP WISE, OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL. OVERALL
A PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 66 79 66 / 10 - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 69 81 69 / 10 - - -
MIAMI 80 68 81 68 / - - - -
NAPLES 84 63 82 63 / - - - -

GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...52/PS
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

721 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN EAST
SFC WIND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 18-20KT AFT 14Z./KOB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012/

TEMP WISE, OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL. OVERALL
A PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 66 79 66 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 69 81 69 / - - - -
MIAMI 79 68 81 68 / - - - -
NAPLES 84 63 82 63 / - - - -

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

409 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A 4 TO 5 MB GRADIENT EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE STATE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE MID
LEVELS WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WITH DRY AIR AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE.
UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS INDICATE LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS ABOUT 8 KFT
DEEP WITH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 6-8 KFT
BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS AND LATEST AIRCRAFT BASED PROFILES.
CERTAINLY BELOW THE INVERSION BASE THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER,
LATEST TRENDS AND LOCAL HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM RUNS AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE HRRR SHOW EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY TRENDING TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS OVERNIGHT IN LINE WITH THE RADAR
TRENDS.

TEMP WISE, OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL. OVERALL
A PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD.

.MARINE...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. ALONG WITH THAT THE SEAS WILL BE COMING DOWN DURING
THE DAY DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE MORNING
OFF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES AND DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. SWELLS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO BE
SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. THE PEAK PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SWELLS
IS NOT THAT LONG (AROUND 10 SECONDS) SO HIGH SURF IS NOT A BIG CONCERN
BUT CERTAINLY A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. AFTER TODAY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH SEAS
REMAINING BELOW 4 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
4 DAYS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP TODAY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 35 PERCENT PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY AND SECTIONS OF GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORE. THE SAME SCENARIO IS
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MEETING
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WHICH WILL BE EVEN LESS LIKELY AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 66 79 66 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 69 81 69 / - - - -
MIAMI 79 68 81 68 / - - - -
NAPLES 84 63 82 63 / - - - -

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BISCAYNE
BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...52/PS
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1000 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
849 PM CDT

GOING FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS OVER
WISCONSIN DOESNT SEEM TO BE IN ANY HURRY TO HEAD SOUTHWARD SO HAVE
SLOWED ITS ARRIVAL IN THE GRIDS AND BEGINNING TO HAVE MY DOUBTS IF
IT WILL EVEN REACH THE AREA TONIGHT.

THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME FAIRLY STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT...SO DESPITE WINDS STAY UP
CAN NOT ARGUE WITH GOING FORECAST LOWS AND NOT PLANNING ANY
CHANGES TO TEMPS OR FREEZE HEADLINES.

IZZI

//PREV DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS TODAY LIE WITH VERY DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...SHIFTING TO THE POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. A COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...AGAIN MAKING COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A FOCUS. THEN THE
PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A WARMER AND MUCH MORE ACTIVE ONE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED ON MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
EASTERN NOAM...WITH A FEW CLOSED UPPER LOWS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
EMBEDDED IN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS IN PLACE
OVER WESTERN NOAM...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST NORTH TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A LARGE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WAS OFF THE WEST COAST. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NOAM WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN COOL DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT THEN THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL FORCE THE RIDGE
EASTWARD...BRINGING A LATE WEEK WARM UP AND ALSO OPENING UP THE GULF
FOR MOISTURE TO FLOW NORTHWARD. THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PRESS EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MAINLY SUNNY TODAY OTHER THAN A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WITH VERY
DEEP MIXING UP NEAR 700 MB NOTED ON AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS. THIS ENABLED
THE VERY DRY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS
FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN...ALSO DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME
AIRPORT OBS OCCASIONALLY REACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
GUSTS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO PROMPT ISSUANCE OF A SHORT-FUSE
WIND ADVISORY. TEMPS ALOFT WERE SLOWLY COOLING...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS AND DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES BROUGHT ANOTHER MILD DAY
TO THE CWA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 60S. RED FLAG WARNING
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
FALL.

TONIGHT...AS STRONG...COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT...KEEPING WINDS GOING EVEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TRIES TO DECOUPLE. RUC HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER OVER
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...SO HAVE SOME
CLOUDS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF CWA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. BEHIND A WEAK COLD FROPA...850 MB TEMPS
DROP TO WELL BELOW 0C LATE TONIGHT AND COLD LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
VALLEY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ADDING IN
KANE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES. NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARD SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...BUT DESPITE THIS AND WINDS BEING LIMITING
FACTOR TO HOW FAR TEMPERATURES FALL AND PRECLUDING FROST
DEVELOPMENT...STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO NEAR FREEZING FOR THE WARNING AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA...EXPECTING LOW TO MID 30S...WITH UPPER 30S IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.

TUESDAY...WITH LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO OUR NORTHWEST...SLIGHTLY
WEAKER BUT STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER BREEZY
AND DRY DAY WITH DEEP MIXING TO OR ABOVE 800 MB. TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C AT H85 WILL TRANSLATE TO BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID
50S SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SOME MORE STOUT DIURNAL CU OR STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR NE IL...AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THIN LAYER CLOSE TO SATURATION AT TOP OF
MIXED LAYER.

WILL LIKELY NEED FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOL DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE
LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT CHICAGO URBAN
CORE...WITH UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS. TO REDUCE
CONFUSION...KEEPING IT DAY BY DAY WITH FREEZE HEADLINES SO MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL LIKELY ISSUE A PRODUCT OVERNIGHT FOR TOMORROW NIGHT`S
EXPECTED FREEZING CONDITIONS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP WINDS GOING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER TO AREA. SHOULDNT BE MUCH WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AWAY
FROM THE LAKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S DUE TO MODEST WARM
ADVECTION...BUT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER...IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. DESPITE WARMING ALOFT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...IT LOOKS TO BE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO
DECOUPLE...LEADING TO VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. THUS WENT BELOW MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT IMMEDIATE CHICAGO AREA AGAIN. FREEZE HEADLINES CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY...TURNING THE LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW SOUTHEASTERLY. ALONG WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ADD ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES TO FORECAST HIGHS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW 60S
SOUTH. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OR A LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP THE ILLINOIS
LAKEFRONT COOLER...CURRENTLY EXPECTING LOW 50S. SKY WILL START OUT
SUNNY...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY FILTERING IN DURING
AFTERNOON FROM SYSTEM WELL BACK TO OUR WEST.

EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A TRANSITION TO A MILDER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DOES INCREASE WITH TIMING AND DETAILS DURING THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTING OFF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO OUR EAST. FARTHER WEST...BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IS DEPICTED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER JET
STREAK THAT EJECTS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN
DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ECMWF AND GEM ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN OUR
DOMESTIC MODELS WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS AND THIS IS PREFERRED GIVEN HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING SURFACE HIGH SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AT BAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND HAVE THUS TRIMMED POPS THERE ALONG THE
LINES OF THE GEM WHICH IS BETWEEN THE DRY ECMWF AND MORE MOIST GFS
IN TERMS OF PRECIP COVERAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND
UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH DEGREE OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...THOUGH WEAK WAVE AND WARM FRONT SHOULD
DEVELOP INTO IOWA/MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY NIGHT PER GEM SOLUTION. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT SOLID CHANCE POPS WITH A FEW PERIODS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. SECOND/STRONGER UPPER WAVE LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINTAINING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN EVOLUTION OF
DETAILS OF SURFACE PATTERN AND TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS
IS STRONGER/MORE CLOSED WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH
THE INITIAL WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN
SECOND LOW TAKING A MORE EAST/SOUTH TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. ECMWF...WITH A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE...HOLDS THE SECOND LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY...WITH A LATER COLD FROPA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO
PREFER A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...AND A POTENTIALLY GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER LOCALLY. WIDE-OPEN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIALLY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD...WITH 12Z GEFS INDICATING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO.

FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP THREAT POTENTIALLY
CLOSE WHILE COOLER/STABLE SURFACE AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE CWA IN
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

RATZER

.FIRE WEATHER...
849 PM CDT

AS OF 8 PM WE STILL HAD A FEW OBSERVATION SITES MEETING RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND LET THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE. APPEARS AS
THOUGH WE COULD FLIRT WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER WITH
20FT SUSTAINED WINDS PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF THE 20 MPH CRITERIA.
IN ADDITION...RH SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
AFTERNOON...THOUGH COULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 25-30 PERCENT
RANGE. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP THANKS TO THE
MARCH WARMTH...THE RECENT DRY SPELL HAS ALLOWED QUICKER DRYING
FUELS TO REALLY DRY OUT. HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT DID INCLUDE FIRE DANGER
WORDING IN HWO AND WILL UPDATE FWF SYNOPSIS TO INCLUDE THIS
POTENTIAL. WILL BRIEF OVERNIGHT SHIFT ON THE CONCERNS AND ALLOW
THEM TO MAKE FINAL CALL AFTER WATCHING RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AND
GETTING A LOOK AT 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SPORADIC GUSTS TO
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS VFR 6KFT CEILINGS BY THE AFTERNOON.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

OUTSIDE OF PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THESE QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS INTO TUESDAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO
USHER THIS CLOUD SHIELD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WITH THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF ALL THE
TERMINALS. DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING BKN BY THE 20Z TIME FRAME.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER GUSTS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING THRU THE 4Z TIME FRAME. WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS WELL AS A PUSH OF COLDER
AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED GUSTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY INCREASE BY MID MORNING TOMORROW WITH A
STEADY INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION...WITH LOW MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE WITH GUST POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
202 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY. THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY LATE WEEK THE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THESE WINDS APPEAR TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS COMING WEEKEND.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...2 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

849 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
849 PM CDT

IZZI

.PREV DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A TRANSITION TO A MILDER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DOES INCREASE WITH TIMING AND DETAILS DURING THE PERIOD.

RATZER

.FIRE WEATHER...
849 PM CDT

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 27KT THRU 4Z...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SPORADIC GUSTS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS VFR 6KFT CEILINGS BY THE AFTERNOON.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION IN THE NEAR
TERM...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS OVERNIGHT.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
202 PM CDT

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...2 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

701 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A TRANSITION TO A MILDER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DOES INCREASE WITH TIMING AND DETAILS DURING THE PERIOD.

RATZER

.FIRE WEATHER...
352 PM CDT

RED FLAG CRITERIA IS CURRENTLY BEING MET RATHER EASILY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY AT SUNSET...BUT AM
CONCERNED SOME AREAS COULD BE MEETING OR AT LEAST VERY CLOSE TO
CRITERIA STILL AT 7 PM...SO WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING ANOTHER HOUR UNTIL 8 PM.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 27KT THRU 4Z...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SPORADIC GUSTS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS VFR 6KFT CEILINGS BY THE AFTERNOON.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION IN THE NEAR
TERM...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS OVERNIGHT.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
202 PM CDT

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...RED FLAG WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.

FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...2 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.

IN...RED FLAG WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8 PM
MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

246 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY COOL FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS AS WELL. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE DRIER AIRMASS
CURRENTLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOUND
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS.

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH
SOME SREF AND GFS INCORPORATED TO SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE COOL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...SHOULD GIVE THE
FRONT A LITTLE MORE PUSH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES AS THIS WILL BE JUST
PAST MAX HEATING AND THIS AREA HAS THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE COLUMN. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW CINH
CONTINUING TO ERODE AS WELL.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETUP
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE AREA WILL
BRING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. THE MOSTLY LIKELY DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH CASES LIKE THIS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES DESPITE THE WEAK FLOW REGIME. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL STILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE QUITE
WARM AS A DEEPENING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO RISE
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE...HOWEVER MOST
WILL BE DRY.

.MARINE...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
DRY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 82 62 82 62 82 / 10 10 20 10 40
KBPT 80 60 81 62 82 / 10 10 20 20 30
KAEX 80 57 81 59 80 / 10 10 20 10 50
KLFT 81 60 82 61 81 / 10 10 20 10 40

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

BRAZZELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1243 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT. PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON, WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS STARTING MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWEAKED FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON BLEND OF RECENT
SURFACE, RADAR, AND SATELLITE DATA, COUPLED WITH HRRR AND NAM
MODEL OUTPUT. THESE SHOWED COLD FRONTAL BAND OF CLOUDS AND VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO
EARLY EVENING.

UPPED WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH PER RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES.

DUE TO PASSING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SLIGHTLY COOLER H8 TEMPERATURES,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NO MORE THAN 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN 12 PM
READINGS.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE 30S, SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL NOT GO LOWER
THAN THE CRITICAL 30 PERCENT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
CAN INCREASE TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE ASSESSMENT
CONTINUES TO BE DRIER THAN THE CRITICAL 10 PERCENT VALUE.

REFERENCE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR THE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
PREDICTED SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW/SURFACE LOW OVER
THE MARITIMES RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A COOL
AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL RESULT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK MAINLY IN THE 50S
MONDAY...AND IN THE 40S TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN MULTIPLE RUNS
OF THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN THAT A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST COAST. WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850HPA AND 1000-500HPA THICKNESS VALUES
SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...BY ROUGHLY 10-15
DEGREES...AS SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE NAEFS
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD RETURNING TEMPERATURES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE TODAY DESPITE PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD
FRONT AS MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND ANY RAIN THAT
OCCURS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL TO AVIATION CONCERNS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WL REINFORCE
COOL NORTHWEST WIND ACRS THE LAKES AND BRING PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO
RETURN BY THURSDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED, AS 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
ASSESSMENT CONTINUES TO BE DRIER THAN THE CRITICAL 10 PERCENT
VALUE, AND SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON CAN INCREASE TO NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH.

HOWEVER, FIRE DANGER WILL NOT REACH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG
HEADLINES, SINCE SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 30S,
SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN THE CRITICAL 30
PERCENT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON.

SO CONTINUE TO CONSULT LOCAL BURN LAWS BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY
PLANNED BURNING.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

912 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK EASTBOUND COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES TODAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ELIMINATE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES, WHICH HAVE
EXPIRED.

RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS A BAND OF ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS,
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EASTBOUND COLD FRONT, PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. DUE TO SURFACE LAYER DRYNESS, EXPECT
LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES FOR MOST SPOTS.

MAINTAINED TEMPERATURE FORECAST PER RECENT HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.

REFERENCE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR THE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
PREDICTED SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE TODAY DESPITE PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD
FRONT AS MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND ANY RAIN THAT
OCCURS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL TO AVIATION CONCERNS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS LIKELY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITERIA WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY, DUE TO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST AROUND 30 PERCENT. THIS IS A
RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15
MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 MPH RANGE...SO IF YOU PLAN ON BURNING
SUNDAY...PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL BURN LAWS.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

215 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

NORTHERN MICHIGAN WAS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AT MIDDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TURN COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...GENERATING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

LOW-LVL MSTR REMAINS DEEPEST OVER THE ERN U.P. AND NE LOWER MI.
BUT VIS SATL SHOWS ITS LOSING THE BATTLE...BEGINNING TO MIX OUT
ALONG WITH SOME MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION. WE`VE SEEN A COUPLE LGT
SHWRS DEVELOP JUST N OF ST. IGNACE AND HEAD ESE WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES BEING PICKED UP OVER CHEBOYGAN/PRESQUE ISLE COUNTIES.
ADDED SOME SLGT CHC POPS THRU 5 PM. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SKIES WILL BECOME MORE SUNNY
FOR NE LOWER OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS.

WINDS ARE GUSTY...BUT NOT CLOSE TO ADVY CRITERIA YET. WE STILL
HAVE SOME MORE DEEPENING OF THE BL YET TO GO. IF WE DON`T SEE ANY
G40 MPH BY 4 PM...WE`LL PROBABLY CANCEL THE ADVY EARLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

...HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS AS IT WILL BE A WINDY AFTN...

WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED AS OF 1053 AM.

UPDATED FCST AS BEEN OUT SINCE 945 AM. REASON FOR AFD DELAY IS WE`VE
BEEN CONTEMPLATING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTN. PRES GRADIENT WILL
BE SLACKENING...BUT DEEP LAYER JET STREAK WILL MOVE THRU THIS AFTN...
INCLUDING CORE OF LOW-LVL JET MAX. GRB 50 KTS JUST BELOW 850 MB.
MEAN LAYER MIXING TOOL SUGGESTS 30-35 KT GUSTS ARE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH BUFKIT NAM WIND PROFILES. BOTH
THE RUC/NAM ARE 5-10 KTS TOO LOW COMPARED TO GRB OB. RUC PROFILES
HAVE BEST DEPICTION OF 50 KT MAX MOVING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN ADVY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUSTS OF 40 KTS
APPEAR LIKELY AND WORST CASE SCENARIO COULD BE HIGHER. SO
INCREASED AFTN GUSTS BY 15 MPH.

ADVECTION IS NIL BUT DEPTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE AT LEAST UP
TO 850 MB. WE`LL STILL ADD ANOTHER 10F TO CURRENT TEMPS. 12Z GRB
SOUNDING 850 MB TEMP OFFERS MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WE ARE
SEEING DIURNAL PRODUCTION OF CLOUDS IN LINGERING MSTR. LOW-LVL
TRAJECTORIES ARE MORE FROM INL AND IS MUCH MORE MOIST. SO EXPECT
M-P/SUNNY SKIES. MAINTAINED LOW CHC SHWRS S OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE BAND OF SHOWERS AS IT
SLOWLY THINS/WEAKENS WHILE PUSHING NORTH AND EAST INTO NORTHEAST
LOWER AND THROUGH CHIP/MACK IN EASTERN UPPER. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING
TREND JUST A TAD AS WELL.

FINALLY...AFTER ANALYSIS OF THE 6Z MODEL SUITE...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A LOW CHC SHOWER MENTION SOUTH AND WEST OF A TVC/HTL LINE
TOWARDS EVENING AS BOWLING BALL OF IMPRESSIVE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
NEAR 8C OVERLAP A BAND OF H85-H7 LAPSE RATES OF 9C...ALLOWING A
DECENT BIT OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHERN MONTANA...THIS AIRMASS WAS ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SHOWERS
DESPITE SIMILAR AFTERNOON RH/S. FINALLY...SREF DPROG/DT PLOTS SHOW
A GRADUALLY INCREASING NUMBER OF MEMBERS WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG
WITH 06Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY SHRAS THAT
DEVELOP FOR GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL LLEVEL DCAPE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

THE OMEGA BLOCK-LIKE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THIS PAST WEEK IS BREAKING DOWN TEMPORARILY AS OF THIS WRITING AS
THE WESTERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...BREAKING DOWN THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY TEAMING UP WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF NOAM. THE END RESULT WILL BE A RETROGRESSION OF THE
OMEGA-LIKE PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THIS OVERALL TRANSITION SPELLS A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

AS OF THIS WRITING...BAND OF RELATIVELY INTENSE SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MARCH THROUGH THE CWA FUELED BY NEGATIVELY TILTED EJECTING
TROUGH...COUPLED JET DYNAMICS...A BAND OF H85-H7 FGEN AND MODEST
PWATS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...
GENERALLY AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION
SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING MY EASTERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK...AND LOOKING AT EARLY MORNING FOG PRODUCT
IMAGERY...WILL BE REPLACED BY MCLEAR SKIES.

HEADING INTO THE DAY TODAY...PRIMARY CONCERNS RESULT AROUND CLOUD
REDEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY...BUT WITH MID LEVEL COOLING
AND A LITTLE BIT OF RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
POP SOME CU BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING WITH IT STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS
WELL AS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE. COULDN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LATE DAY SPRINKLE SOUTH AND WEST OF TVC/HTL...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS
WILL BE WHERE THE LLEVEL MOISTURE IS MOST MEAGER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR EVERYONE TO
REMAIN DRY. IF ANY SHRAS DO DEVELOP...WOULD HAVE TO WATCH FOR GUSTY
WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN WHAT WILL BE AN INVERTED-V PROFILE AT THE
SURFACE. MORE NOTICEABLE TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION COMBINES WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF 30KT WINDS AT H85 WITH 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT THE GROUND WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30MPH. FINALLY...UPSTREAM
DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE LAKES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT WE
COULD MIX DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO AROUND 20F BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING RH/S BACK TO CRITICAL LEVELS...AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE MORNING HWO
AND FWF. WITH T85S IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE AND NO PROBLEM MIXING TO
THIS LEVEL BY AFTERNOON...CONSENSUS/PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS FROM 50
IN THE EASTERN UP TO UPPER 50S OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LOOKS VERY
REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCOOTS SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERHEAD...BUT WITH T85S STILL TOO WARM
TO GET A LAKE RESPONSE GOING...AND LIMITED LLEVEL MOISTURE
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH VARYING LEVELS OF PRIMARILY MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WITH THE DRY LLEVEL AIRMASS...EXPECT TEMPS WILL
FALL PRETTY RAPIDLY...HELD BACK BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
DECENT LLEVEL MIXING. STILL...WILL LOWER GOING FORECAST LOWS
TOWARDS...OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO HANG YOUR HAT ON FOR MONDAY WITH
WEAK SPOKES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ROLLING OVERHEAD. THE
LLEVELS REMAIN DRY WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE HOLDING
OFF UNTIL EVENING. LLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP...BUT WITH
A STABLE LAYER FROM H7 UPWARD...REALLY DON/T SEE ANY PRECIPITATING
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY UNTIL WE CAN DEEPEN MOISTURE AND COMBINE THIS
WITH COOLING H85 TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ASSISTANCE
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL GO DRY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A
LATE AFTERNOON SPRINKLE NOT FULLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
UNLIKELY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR ADVECTION...FULL MIXING
TO THIS LEVEL /WHICH AGAIN LOOKS LIKELY WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES
PERSISTING/ SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 40S OVER EASTERN UPPER
INCREASING TO THE LOWER 50S OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

STILL LOOKING LIKE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SPRING WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...COURTESY OF DEEP
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AN BACKSIDE OF EAST CANADA CENTERED TROUGH
AXIS. SPOKES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR
LIKELY TO KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT RAIN (AND GULP...SNOW) SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALSO PER THE SPRING-TIME USUAL...COOL AIR DOES
NOT LOOK TO STICK AROUND TOO LONG...WITH AIRMASS MODERATION LIKELY
BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY NEXT
WEEKEND. FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN CENTERED ON LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH LATER FOCUS DIRECTED AT UPWARD
TEMPERATURES TRENDS AND WHEN TO INTRODUCE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.

NOT REALLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES INITIALLY MONDAY EVENING...
DESPITE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN BACKSIDE OF
DOWNSTREAM PARENT SYSTEM. BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH AND NORTHEAST...AS DOES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. ONTARIO BAND OF
DEEP MOISTURE PIVOTS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH JUST ENOUGH MID
LEVEL SUPPORT TO PERHAPS KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MAY EVEN SEE A
TOUCH OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS THIS
OCCURS. MINIMAL FORCING STILL SUGGESTS JUST SOME LIGHT SPOTTY
ACTIVITY. THERMAL PROGS TRENDING COLDER...NOW SUGGESTING SNOW BEING
THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE FOR ALL AREAS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN
THIS DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING JUST A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW AT
BEST. MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO PIVOT SOUTH TUESDAY (ONCE
AGAIN...WITH A TOUCH OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT)...BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. A RAW
DAY FOR SURE...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ONLY ADDING CONSIDERABLE
MORE CHILL TO AFTERNOON READING IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S (PERHAPS
ONLY UPPER 30S FOR PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER).

AFTER PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING...MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK SHAPING UP AS A DRY ONE AS LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WORKS IT MAGIC...BRINGING SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BY THURSDAY BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INTERESTINGLY...12Z ECMWF TOOK A
SIGNIFICANT LEAP TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS DEPICTION OF DRIVING
WAA RAINS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY. STILL NOT SOLD ON THIS
AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO...WITH BLOCKY PATTERN AND SLOW TO RETREAT HIGH
PRESSURE SUGGESTING A SLOWER EVOLUTION. HAVE KINDA SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...BRINGING IN SOME SHOWER MENTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME SUGGESTION FOR A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT GETS
HUNG UP OVER THE LAKES...WITH EXCELLENT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED
BRINGING PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. NO NEED TO GO TOO AGGRESSIVE JUST YET... ESPECIALLY WITH
RECENT WILD FLUCTUATIONS SEEN IN GUIDANCE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

REST OF THIS AFTN: MVFR CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED AT PLN. VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTN. AN ISOLD VFR LGT SHWR COULD DEVELOP NEAR
MBL. NW WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH ISOLD G30-35 KTS POSSIBLE.

TNGT: VFR WITH SOME OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL CIGS. W-NW WINDS
DECREASING TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

MON THRU 18Z: VARIABLE VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS. NW WINDS INCREASE TO
10G20 KTS BY 15Z.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
OCCLUDED FRONT THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WINDS TO 15G25KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE WILL HOIST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY...STAGGERING THEM SUCH
THAT WHITEFISH BAY/SAINT MARYS/LAKE HURON WILL START LATER THIS
MORNING WITH LAKE MICHIGAN STARTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BEFORE STRENGTHENING BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-017-019>022-
025>028-031>034.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SYNOPSIS...MB/HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
MARINE...JA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

1108 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

...HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS AS IT WILL BE A WINDY AFTN...

WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED AS OF 1053 AM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS BAND OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST...WITH RESIDUAL IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS
FOLLOWING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. APN WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS....WITH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FEATURING JUST
SOME SCATTERED CU AROUND 5KFT. TOWARDS EVENING...SOME SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND COULD IMPACT MBL
/AND POTENTIALLY TVC/. WILL INCLUDE VCSH MENTION AT MBL...WHERE
THE BEST CHANCES ARE. RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN A VERY DRY LLEVEL AIRMASS AND STRONG
WINDS ALOFT...THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. TONIGHT...
EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.

WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15G25KTS FOR THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WEST NORTHWEST...BUT DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KTS THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...JA
MARINE...JA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

1026 AM MDT SUN APR 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY...
FLAT NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER W MT AND AB/BC. A
COLDER ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH OVER N CANADA WILL START TO MOVE S AND
START JUST A LITTLE COLD ADVECTION INTO OUR N THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z
KGGW SOUNDING SHOWED 2-3C WARMING PAST 24 HOURS OFF THE SURFACE
THOUGH...SO BALANCED BY A LITTLE COOL ADVECTION...EXPECT VERY
MINOR WARMING OVER YESTERDAY.

THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED THE AIRMASS STILL UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CUMULUS FORMATION IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW THE AIRMASS STABILIZING...THUS
FLATTENING THE CUMULUS AND NO PRECIP...WHICH HRRR COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVELY SHOWS NONE ALSO.

LOW OVERCAST STILL WELL TO OUR N BEHIND WEAK ARCTIC FRONT IN SK.
MODELS BRING THIS STRATUS MOSTLY INTO ND THIS EVE...MAY BRUSH OUR
NE.

12Z KGGW SOUNDING SHOWED 30-35 KT WIND IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...ALTHOUGH
DROPPING A BIT IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS WE START TO MIX OUT MODEST SURFACE INVERSION
SOON. MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUDCOVER ONLY. SIMONSEN

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A
DYNAMIC AND VARIED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
IS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS WAKE TO NARROW AND AMPLIFY
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE U.S.
NORTHERN PLAINS IS SLOWLY RETREATING NORTH AND EAST WHILE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. IMPULSE AND SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE WEST COAST.

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT...POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE VIRGA SPRINKLES THIS
AFTERNOON...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

TODAY...EXPECT CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM AGAIN NORTHWEST TOWARD
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA. SHORT TERM MODEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LESS
CAPE THAN YESTERDAY...LESS THAN 100 J/KG. I WOULD EXPECT
CONVECTIVE SPRINKLES...POSSIBLE VIRGA SHOWERS AT BEST GIVEN THE
CORRESPONDING SHORT TERM MODEL QPF OUTPUT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS
WELL. TRIED TO INDICATE THIS THINKING WITH SILENT POPS IN THE
GRIDS. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 30 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE IS IN
EFFECT FROM 18Z THROUGH 03 Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER FROM THE
WEST...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS CALM AND BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY. FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOMES NEUTRAL. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY TRAVERSES OUR CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AND KEEP ANY
AND ALL PRECIPITATION FAR AWAY WHILE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE
WARMER. WINDS WILL FINALLY INCREASE MORE FROM THE EAST TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD DOMINATED BY THE EAST PACIFIC UPPER TROF
TRANSITIONING FROM OFF THE WEST COAST MIDWEEK INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO EASTERN MONTANA AND GREATER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH LARGER
MODEL SPREAD. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON LIFT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONTANA ON THURSDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO WILL LIFT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY
TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. WARMER UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH REFINED THE
AREA. MODELS DIFFERING ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GFS LIFTING IT IN TO CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT...TAKING MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA UNTIL LIFTING IT NORTH AND DRYING OUT THE REGION ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN CHANGES
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ALL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO FALL AS RAIN. EBERT

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. A MID LEVEL CUMULUS DECK WILL REAPPEAR
BY MIDDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SEVERAL FEATURES WILL COMBINE TODAY TO HEIGHTEN THE FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE
ZONE 122 IN EASTERN MONTANA. WITH LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN MONTANA
WILL FUNNEL GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AREA. THE RECENT
STORM SYSTEM PROVIDED NEXT TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AREA WHICH
HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS TO TWO
MONTHS. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER
20S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEASON...AHEAD OF THE FULL GREEN-
UP...AREA FUELS ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MARGINAL FIRE DANGERS. THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWEST AND WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTER SUNSET...HUMIDITIES WILL QUICKLY RECOVER
AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF. BMICKELSON

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FOR FORT PECK
LAKE IN THE FORT PECK LAKE.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

840 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES. SW THIRD OF
FA HAS CLEARED OFF WITH CLOUDS HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS FAR NE FA. THIS
AREA WILL BE TOUGH TO CLEAR OFF TONIGHT AS RUC HOLDS DEEPER LAYERED
RH IN PLACE CLOSEST TO UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE OF THE WOODS.
TEMPERATURES UNDER THICKER CLOUDS ALREADY IN THE 20S BUT NOT LIKELY
TO MAKE MUCH OF A FALL. WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLOUDS WARMER
AREAS TO THE WEST WILL DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS FEEL CURRENT
MINIMUMS IN LINE SO MINIMAL CHANGES PLANNED. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

.AVIATION...
FAR NE FA LIKELY TO REMAIN WITH VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WHILE REMAINDER
OF FA SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

137 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH AREAS OF FROST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT MONDAY. A COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED...
ADJ DWPTS THIS EVE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN
COLUMN TDY WILL MOISTEN UP AT THE TOP THIS EVE WITH INFLUX OF
HI CLDS. INDEED RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF NAM AND GFS BRING CLDS
QUICKLY IN FROM W THIS EVE. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS MDLS MAY BE AN HR
TOO SLOW...BUT GENERALLY HANDLING IT WELL. THIS PRESENTS A TMP
CONUNDRUM OVERNIGHT AND THUS FROST POTENTIAL. LAMP GUIDANCE CONT
TO SUGGEST FROST WILL BE HARD TO COME BY TONIGHT FOR MOST GIVEN
HI CLDS RACING E. DO THINK A FAST DROP IN TMPS EARLY THIS EVE IS
IN STORE BEFORE LEVELING OFF AS HI CLDS COME IN...WITH SFC DWPT
DEPRESSIONS REMAINING LARGE OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT DESPITE SOME
MODEST RECOVERY. ADJ HRLY TMPS UP BASED ON LAMP GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS 18Z NAM AND GFS WHICH ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THEIR
RESPECTIVE 12Z RUNS. WILL LEAVE FROST ADV AS IS THOUGH AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT THIS EVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...TO KEEP CLEAR
SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH 08Z...STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND CALM FLOW.
THIS SCENARIO WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF FROST AS TEMPERATURES DROP
UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THEIR DEWPOINTS....EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S LOWLANDS...TO THE MID TEENS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS IN QUESTION. NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A
STARVED MOISTURE COLD FRONT. THE THICKER THIS CLOUD DECK BECOMES
AFTER 08Z...THE MORE PROBABLE THERE IS TO SHUT DOWN THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIN CIRRUS FROM 08-12Z ALLOWING HEAT RELEASE AND
THE ASSOCIATED AREAS OF FROST. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A FROST
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF WV AND MEIGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OH.

WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT CONCERNING THE
FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S LOWLANDS...TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ON EASTER SUNDAY MAX TEMPERATURES PER
CLOUD COVER AND NOT CHANGE IN AIRMASS JUST YET. &&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NAM POINTS TO WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE JUST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE MAIN ENERGY WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST IN NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS
FRONT DRY...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO ADD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE EVENT NEARS. AFTER PASSAGE...NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW PROVIDES
SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE OMEGA AND WARRANTS THE LOW END
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

A DEEP CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS/QUEBEC...AND WILL DOMINATE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
FOR OUR AREA. WILL SEE A PIECE OF ENERGY DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR MONDAY...NECESSITATING HIGHER
POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A MUCH
COOLER PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEAK IN LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT... BRINGING AN END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES.

A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW...CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA MONDAY
MORNING WILL MEANDER SOUTHWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...IMPACTING OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN A DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL BEGINNING TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN EDGES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEPENDING
ON LINGERING CLOUDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO A FROST/FREEZE SITUATION
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE SOME FOR AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND VFR
CEILINGS 4000-7000 FEET. AFTER 00Z...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SUN 04/08/12
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ006>011-
013>020-026>037-039-040.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

939 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED PARTS OF SVR TSTM WATCH 152 BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
STILL A CLUSTER OF STORMS ONGOING IN SERN AND ERN ZONES SO WILL LEAVE
THE WATCH UP FOR THAT AREA TIL EXPIRATION AT 04Z. ALSO REDUCED POPS
ALL ZONES REST OF TONIGHT AS PRECIP COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE.
UPDATED PRODUCTS AND GRIDS COMPLETED.

ANDRADE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
FOR KAMA...INCLUDED A VCTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS AS
SCATTERED TSRA MOVE CLOSE TO THE KAMA TERMINAL. OUTSIDE OF A TSRA
MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 10Z BEFORE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS...
DEVELOP WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR RETURNING BY
18Z.

FOR KDHT AND KGUY...BELIEVE TSRA ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE
TERMINALS...SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS...WILL DEVELOP WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15KTS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
14Z...WITH VFR RETURNING BY 17Z.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012/

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON CENTERS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL VORT
MAX CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND WEST TX. THIS AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE HAS
LED TO SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A
LINE AND PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
FAVORABLE BULK SHEER VALUES...AND SBCAPES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG
WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NM BORDER WHERE SURFACE WINDS WERE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #152...
HAVE GONE AND INCREASED POPS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE CO-
LOCATED. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN OK
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SQUARELY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. WHILE THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND ANY FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
A GOOD FETCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING AS A VORT MAX TOPS
THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE. AGAIN THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THUS HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY.
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE LOW TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN CO/NM. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...FOCUSING
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SPLIT INTO TWO CHUNKS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN
PIECE LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY. HAVE
NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOCUSING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TX. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A WET
START TO THE NEXT WEEK THOUGH AS DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CAN GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW FOR THIS
PERIOD AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THIS
SOLUTION OVER THEIR NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM THUNDERSTORMS CAN CAUSE FIRE STARTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WHERE FUELS ARE NOT AS MOIST.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A DRYLINE
SURGES INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES BUT THIS IS
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS AREA RECEIVES EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.

CLK

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

712 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
FOR KAMA...INCLUDED A VCTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS AS
SCATTERED TSRA MOVE CLOSE TO THE KAMA TERMINAL. OUTSIDE OF A TSRA
MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 10Z BEFORE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS...
DEVELOP WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR RETURNING BY
18Z.

KNS

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012/

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON CENTERS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

CLK

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM THUNDERSTORMS CAN CAUSE FIRE STARTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WHERE FUELS ARE NOT AS MOIST.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A DRYLINE
SURGES INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES BUT THIS IS
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS AREA RECEIVES EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.

CLK

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

99/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

612 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. POPS WERE INCREASED
ACROSS THE WEST AND BROUGHT FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE HEARTLAND
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MODEL ANALYSIS. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEST TX CONVECTION WILL EXTEND BUT UPON COORDINATION WITH
SPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE OPTED TO INCLUDE CROCKETT COUNTY
IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL. SBCAPE VALUES ARE NOT EXTREME PER THE RUC MESOANALYSIS
BUT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE 12Z KMAF SOUNDING SHOWED VERY IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SO THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH
INITIALLY.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OK TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS...PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE BIG COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN MORE OF A
DECAYING PHASE AT THAT TIME BUT I INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE HI RES CONVECTIVE
MODELS BRING THE PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE COLORADO RIVER BEFORE
REALLY FALLING APART. THE UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

JOHNSON

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
THIS EVENING. THESE MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND APPROACH OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS...SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS
GROUP AT KABI STARTING AT 06Z. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE OTHER TAF
SITES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF STORMS TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE
TO 10 TO 14 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AS BLOW OFF FROM THE CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION.

DANIELS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012/

SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS WITH CHANCE AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM
FAVOR OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY GROW UPSCALE
INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO AND TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THAT AREA BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CARRYING THE HIGHEST POPS /40-50 PERCENT/
ACROSS THAT AREA. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP COVERING THE SOUTHERN BIG
COUNTRY AND NORTHWESTERN CONCHO VALLEY...WHERE MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW WHAT MAY BE A WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS TOWARD OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST TEXAS...THE HRRR AND WRF SHOW CONSIDERABLE
DEVELOPMENT AND INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF THIS CONVECTION MERGING
WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED CLUSTER AS IT TRACKS TOWARD OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. FOR NOW...TAKING
A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH POPS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED
PENDING EVENING DEVELOPMENT.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TRICKY AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. CARRYING LOWS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AND THE
COOLER /UPPER 50S/ READINGS MAY BE ACROSS OUR HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWEST. MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER FIELDS LOOK DOUBTFUL FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF OUR AREA TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT RIDGE...KEEPING POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SAG ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG.

ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE DRYLINE BECOMING
ACTIVE TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES THE AREA. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WEDNESDAY EVENING
MAY SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A LESSENING
SEVERE THREAT AS INSTABILITY WANES. INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASED
POPS TO CHANCE ALL ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LO0KS UNSETTLED AS WE REMAIN
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRYLINE ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS WEAK IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER AZ/NM ON SATURDAY...TRACKING SLOWLY EAST INTO WEST TEXAS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 62 83 60 81 62 / 30 10 20 10 30
SAN ANGELO 61 85 60 83 63 / 20 10 10 10 30
JUNCTION 60 84 60 82 64 / 10 10 10 10 30

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1232 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
FROM 09Z-12Z EXPECT LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 15Z WILL SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT NOT GOING
TO INCLUDE IN ANY TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. EAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING EXPECT TO SEE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG
(5SM-6SM) FROM 09Z-14Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

UPDATE...
DUE TO A LACK OF CAPE AND SHEAR ON PROGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE DYING UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF THUNDER ON UPDATED FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOWERED PROBABILITIES TO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE. AFTERNOON SKY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK S/W TROF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TODAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE
FORMS WEST TO NORTHWEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS LATER TODAY
AND BECOME DIFFUSE...AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST OF TEXAS
AND LOWER PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
FROM KAUS TO KSAT THRU 15Z...1 THSD TO 3 THSD SCT WITH CIGS ABV
10 THSD BKN ARE EXPECTED. CIGS 5 THSD TO 10 THSD BKN WEST OF A
KERV TO CARRIZO SPRINGS LINE AND WEST TO KDRT ARE EXPECTED THRU
15Z...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA. AFTER 15Z 4 THSD TO 6 THSD SCT WITH
CIGS ABOVE 10 THSD BKN IS FORECAST. ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA ARE
EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. MVFR
CIGS OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN TO OVC ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER
08Z TONIGHT FROM VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT...AND DEVELOP WEST TO
VCNTY OF KDRT AFTER 11Z MONDAY MORNING. 3 THSD TO 5 THSD SCT WITH
SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED AFTER 16Z MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...
THE MCS STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. 07Z RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...REMNANT INSTABILITY FROM THE MCS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE WASHED OUT BEFORE IT REACHES OUR
CWA...BUT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND NERN TIER OF COUNTIES
DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DUE TO A GENERALLY UNSETTLED AIRMASS ALOFT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK PUTTING
AN END TO CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
OUT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INCREASE AND RESULT IN GREATER ADVECTION OF GULF
MOISTURE. WITH THE WEAKENING HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT AND GOOD MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...COULD SEE SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF MOIST CONDITIONS WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST
WITH DRIER WESTERLIES ACROSS OUR AREA. WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION OF A DRY THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AT LEAST WEAKENING IN THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT DIFFER GREATLY AS
TO WHETHER IT WILL JUST BE WEAK S/W TROUGHING OR THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60 (SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS). A WARMING TREND OF BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL SETTLE IN LATE
WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 62 83 62 84 / 10 20 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 58 83 58 83 / 10 20 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 81 59 83 59 82 / 10 10 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 82 60 83 / 10 20 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 64 85 65 86 / 20 20 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 61 83 60 82 / 10 20 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 60 83 58 83 / 20 10 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 82 59 82 / 10 10 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 61 81 61 81 / 10 20 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 81 62 82 61 83 / 10 10 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 83 61 83 / 10 10 - - -

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...02
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1043 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

.UPDATE...
DUE TO A LACK OF CAPE AND SHEAR ON PROGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE DYING UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF THUNDER ON UPDATED FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOWERED PROBABILITIES TO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE. AFTERNOON SKY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT TRENDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...02
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

612 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS.

.AVIATION...
A WEAK S/W TROF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TODAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE
FORMS WEST TO NORTHWEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS LATER TODAY
AND BECOME DIFFUSE...AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST OF TEXAS
AND LOWER PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
FROM KAUS TO KSAT THRU 15Z...1 THSD TO 3 THSD SCT WITH CIGS ABV
10 THSD BKN ARE EXPECTED. CIGS 5 THSD TO 10 THSD BKN WEST OF A
KERV TO CARRIZO SPRINGS LINE AND WEST TO KDRT ARE EXPECTED THRU
15Z...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA. AFTER 15Z 4 THSD TO 6 THSD SCT WITH
CIGS ABOVE 10 THSD BKN IS FORECAST. ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA ARE
EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. MVFR
CIGS OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN TO OVC ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER
08Z TONIGHT FROM VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT...AND DEVELOP WEST TO
VCNTY OF KDRT AFTER 11Z MONDAY MORNING. 3 THSD TO 5 THSD SCT WITH
SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED AFTER 16Z MONDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 62 83 62 84 / 20 20 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 58 83 58 83 / 20 20 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 81 59 83 59 82 / 20 10 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 82 60 83 / 30 20 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 64 85 65 86 / 20 20 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 61 83 60 82 / 30 20 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 60 83 58 83 / 20 10 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 82 59 82 / 20 10 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 61 81 61 81 / 20 20 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 81 62 82 61 83 / 20 10 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 83 61 83 / 20 10 - - -

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

408 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE MCS STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. 07Z RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...REMNANT INSTABILITY FROM THE MCS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE WASHED OUT BEFORE IT REACHES OUR
CWA...BUT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND NERN TIER OF COUNTIES
DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DUE TO A GENERALLY UNSETTLED AIRMASS ALOFT.

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1209 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

.UPDATE...INCREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. PATCH OF
ALTOSTRATUS/ALTOCUMULUS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MATCHES UP WITH
BULLSEYE OF 700MB RH ON THE RUC. RUC SHOWS THIS POCKET OF MOISTURE
GENTLY EXPANDING AND MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHER MODELS SHOW SIMILAR
SITUATION BUT ARE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER A
BIT...WITH CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN CWA BY 18-19Z. A
FEW CUMULUS MAY BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH DEEP MIXING
OCCURRING.

RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PARTLY WITH PERSISTENCE IN
MIND...AND ALSO BECAUSE SKIES ARE CLEARER THERE AT MIDDAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTED HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TOMORROW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY THE
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW OF
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT OUT SOME LIGHT QPF THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING LEADING WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVE
THROUGH...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW ABOUT 750MB IS VERY DRY. THE
SOUNDING IS A CLASSIC INVERTED V THAT SHOULD GOBBLE UP ANY RAIN
BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ISOLD
SPRINKLES...NOTHING MEASURABLE THOUGH. THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATE WILL ALLOW FOR EASY MOMENTUM MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANY
VIRGA WOULD ACCENTUATE THIS...SO BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. SEE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BELOW.

DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BRING QUIETER WEATHER TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA...AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS AS WELL. SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA...WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH DURING THIS TIME...WITH AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING JUST DIURNAL CUMULUS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
THUS...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SUGGEST UPPER 20S FOR
LOWS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 30 IN
THIS AREA. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE EACH NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK MONDAY NIGHT...SO LESS
CONFIDENT OF FROST OCCURRING. REMOVED FROST MENTION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT KEPT IT IN FORECAST FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE
LAKE...WITH PATCHY FROST NEAR THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY BEING REPLACED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW INTO SATURDAY. INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 30S FOR LOWS
EXPECTED.

GFS/ECMWF THEN DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH FEATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THEY BOTH SHOW SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW THEN WEAKENING AS
IT SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS
SHIFTS THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ALSO MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FIRST LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT THEN SHOWS MORE LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT DOES NOT GET
TO THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HPC BLENDED FIELDS
FAVORING A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS...WILL USE
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING VFR CLOUDS
AROUND 6 OR 7 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WEST WINDS EXPECTED
TO GUST TO AROUND 27 KT BY AFTERNOON AS WELL. MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE DRY AIR WILL
KEEP MOST PRECIP FROM HITTING THE GROUND. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.

MARINE...

WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TODAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
TO 7 PM. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AGAIN MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY
STAY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS.

FIRE WEATHER...

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY BREEZY WEST WINDS
TODAY...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SOME FUELS WILL
BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE...THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE WISCONSIN DNR...A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING TODAY.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...WIMBERLEY/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1130 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CONDITIONS FOR EASTER
SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TAP GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ARE
PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A CORRIDOR BETWEEN A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH MANITOBA. 07.18Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IF
ANY 0-3KM MUCAPE PRESENT WITH NO UPWARD TREND EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MEANS THAT THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER DEVELOP. THIS COLD FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND END THE THREAT OF
THESE SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS WELL WITH ANY POST-
FRONTAL CUMULUS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT DISSIPATING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO EASTER SUNDAY AND WHAT KIND OF CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW
TONIGHT WITH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING BACK IN AS A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WHICH WILL CREATE STEEP SURFACE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
07.12Z NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS
BEING DRY ADIABATIC FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700MB BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM SITES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MAIN
QUESTION BEING HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BE FOR WINDS AND DEW
POINTS. DESPITE THE WELL MIXED PROFILE ENCOURAGES SOME GUSTINESS
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY
WEAK. 07.12Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER UP TO
AROUND 900MB WITH WINDS THERE BETWEEN 20 TO 30KTS. WITH NOT MUCH
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...THINKING THAT WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THIS 20
TO 30KT RANGE AND NOT TAP INTO THE HIGHER WINDS FURTHER ALOFT AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO MIX OUT AS
WELL...BUT AGAIN IT MAINLY DEPENDS ON HOW DEEP WE ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO. THIS COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO A DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER DAY TOMORROW TO WHERE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. FOR MORE
DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS AFD.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TOMORROW IS WITH SHOWER CHANCES AS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. 500-300MB PV ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON RIGHT AS PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING LEADS TO THE DEEP MIXING. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO
LEAD TO SOME COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WHICH IN TURN DEVELOPS
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY. IF THIS INSTABILITY WOULD
BE A LITTLE HIGHER THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A THREAT FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS VERY MARGINAL
TO EVEN GET LIGHTNING. THUS...WILL NOT BE MENTIONING IN THE HWO
OR OTHER PRODUCTS. AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT COME THROUGH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR.

A COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SECOND COLD
FRONT AS THE TROUGH STALLS OUT OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FORCING FROM THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES FOR MONDAY...SO
HAVE KEPT THEM DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE NEED FOR FREEZE WARNINGS STARTING
TUESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE FOR A HARD
FREEZE ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

WITH THE STACKED LOW SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AS
WELL WITH THE CORE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD
SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS LIKELY AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. THUS...THE NEED WILL BE THERE FOR ADDITIONAL
FREEZE WARNINGS WITH THE EARLY VEGETATION GROWTH THIS SPRING.

BEYOND THIS THE MAIN FEATURE IS WITH THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING
THAT TAKES SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS...DIFFERENCES
ARISE BETWEEN THE 07.12Z GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARD TO WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS HAD BEEN THE
FASTER MODEL THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH BRINGING THIS PRECIPITATION
IN...BUT NOW THE ECMWF HAS JUMPED IT AND IS NOW THE FAST ONE WITH
RAIN GETTING IN THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE ALL RAIN AS IT COMES IN AS WELL...SO HAVE
DROPPED THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FROM THE FORECAST.

.AVIATION...
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

WITH SOME LIGHT -SHRA HAVING MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS
AT KLSE...SOME CONCERN THAT FOG COULD DEVELOP. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR POST THE FRONT THOUGH...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING ABOUT 20
DEGREES IN A FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP A GOOD T/TD SPREAD.
MEANWHILE...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD THAT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HOLD ALL
NIGHT. WEST BREEZES ARE EVIDENT TO THE WEST...AND EVEN A COUPLE MPH
BUMP HIGHER COULD KEEP IT STIRRED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL NOT ADD MENTION TO KLSE.

AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY.
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO DEEP MIXING BY
18Z...WITH MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SUGGESTING GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH AT
KRST. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN/T THAT TIGHT PER LATEST MODEL
RUNS...BUT SUBSIDENCE IS STRONG IN THE LOWEST LAYERS OF
ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
ADDITION TO THE GUSTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN
EFFECT FROM 1 PM THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM.....HALBACH
LONG TERM......HALBACH
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

337 AM MDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THRU TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL RESIDE OVER WRN
CO AS SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAVE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NERN CO. CURRENTLY A WK DENVER
CYCLONE IS OVER SRN WELD COUNTY BUT BY AFTN IT MAY REDEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTH OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH A WK CONVERGENCE FM JUST
EAST OF DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTN
CAPES RANGING FM 500-1000 ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SO COULD SEE
SOME WDLY SCT TSTMS DVLP BY LATE AFTN ALONG THE BNDRY. APPEARS ERN
EXTENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE WEST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON LINE
SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY POPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS AS AIRMASS WILL
BE QUITE STABLE. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE
BETTER EAST OF THE DIVIDE SO COULD SEE A FEW HIGHER BASED STORMS
AS WELL BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES. HIGHS THIS AFTN OVER NERN CO WILL BE
AFFECTED BY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS READINGS OVER THE FAR NERN
PLAINS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MEANWHILE CLOSER
TO THE FRONT RANGE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70-75 RANGE WITH THE
WARMER READINGS NEAR DENVER.

FOR TONIGHT STRATUS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP OVER NERN CO BY
MIDNIGHT AND MAY SPREAD BACK INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AS WELL.
COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...MODELS PERSIST WITH THE IDEA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PUSHING ACROSS THE THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF
US AND GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
STABILITY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DENVER. BUT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO SPREAD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
EASTWARD WHICH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE I MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TOMORROW MORNING.

A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. COAST WILL
DRIVE FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
INITIALLY PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE STATE BUT THEN
BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVER THE WEEKEND...MODELS
SHOW A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE.
DETAILS OF HOW THE UPPER LOW IS GOING TO EVOLVE AS IT CROSSES
THE STATE ARE HARD TO PICK OUT OF THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...
SO FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM DAY 4 ONWARD.

.AVIATION...TRICKY FCST THIS MORNING AS WK DENVER CYCLONE IS OVER
SRN WELD COUNTY. LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY
WRAP AROUND THIS FEATURE TOWARDS SUNRISE. CURRENT HRRR AND RCU
KEEP THIS STRATUS/FOG JUST NORTH OF DIA THRU MID MORNING HOWEVER
IF SFC WINDS BECOME LIGHT NWLY SOME OF THIS STRATUS/FOG COULD
AFFECT THE AIRPORT. IF IT DOES ROLL IN CEILINGS COULD EASILY DROP
BLO 500 FT WITH VISBILITIES DROPPING BLO 1/2 MILE FOR A FEW HOURS.
THUS WILL MENTION A TEMPO GROUP IN THE NEXT TAF FOR THE 12Z-15Z
TIME PERIOD.

BY AFTN LOOKS LIKE THE WK CYCLONE WILL REDEVELOP OVER DOUGLAS
COUNTY WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE ENE. AS MENTIONED ABV THERE
WILL BE A WK CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP JUST TO THE EAST AND SE
OF THE AIRPORT SO COULD SEE A FEW TSTMS DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY
AFTER 21Z THRU 01Z SO WILL MENTION VCTS IN THE TAF. OVERNIGHT
LOOKS LIKE A SFC LOW WILL DVLP JUST EAST OF THE AIRPORT WITH
STRATUS AND FOG AFFECTING THE AREA FM 09Z-15Z.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1238 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...
849 PM CDT

IZZI

//PREV DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A TRANSITION TO A MILDER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DOES INCREASE WITH TIMING AND DETAILS DURING THE PERIOD.

RATZER

.FIRE WEATHER...
849 PM CDT

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. A BOUNDARY/
WIND SHIFT...POSSIBLE LATE LAKE BREEZE...MOVED ACROSS NORTHEAST IL
WITHIN THE PAST FEW HRS SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND LIKELY DISSIPATES...WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
COOLER TEMPS HAVE ALLOWED THE SURFACE TO DECOUPLE SO EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX...BY MID
MORNING...WINDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN THE MID
20KT...PERHAPS UPPER 20KT RANGE BY MID/LATE MORNING. WINDS LIKELY
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY/BREEZY THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING TONIGHT BUT
EVENTUALLY...COOLING TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE TO DECOUPLE
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING UNDER 10KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

RODRIGUEZ

.MARINE...
202 PM CDT

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012 UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY
IS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY
IN UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1010 PM MDT MON APR 9 2012

.UPDATE...
SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
AREAS SO CONTINUED SOME LOW END POPS FROM NEAR SOCORRO TO RUIDOSO
AND ROSWELL. A SIGNIFICANT BANK OF LOW CLOUDS IS DEVELOPING WEST
INTO THE NE PLAINS AS INDICATED BY THE GOES LOW CLOUD BASE PRODUCT.
ADDED SOME FOG AS WELL TO THE FAR SE PLAINS WHERE WETTING RAINS
OCCURRED TONIGHT AND THE LATEST RUC INDICATES A NEAR SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

GUYER

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT MON APR 9 2012...
WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP ON QUE
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VARIETY ARE IN LARGE PART THE DRIER VARIETY
WITH JUST A VERY SMALL FOOTPRINT OF UP TO NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH
IN SOME OF THE CELLS. BASED ON CURRENT HUMIDITY READINGS...A
MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY EXISTS ACROSS THE EAST WITH AMA RADAR
SHOWING SOME ENHANCED ECHOES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
UNFORTUNATELY FDX RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR THE REST OF TODAY. LATEST
SWOMCD FROM SPC SUGGESTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS THE FAR EAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. MICROBURST WIND AND PERHAPS EVEN
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH DRAGGING THE CURRENT MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA EASTWARD OVER THE STATE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MEANS LESSENING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AND INCREASING DRYNESS IN THE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE A STRENGTHENING OR SHARPENING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED.
THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE CULMINATION DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. WENT AHEAD AND PLACED
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORECAST WORDING DUE TO A
BETTER THAN MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX
OUTBREAK EVENT THERE.

THEREAFTER...NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCES MORE FIRE WX CONCERNS AS THE
DRYSLOT OVERTAKES THE AREA AND WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RESIDUAL STRONGER WIND FLOWS AND LOWER HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF
THE WEEKEND PERIOD ALTHOUGH HAVE BEEN SHAKY THE PAST 2 TO 3 DAYS
SO DIDNT ADJUST THE GRIDS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DIG A FAIRLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY AND FURTHER IT INTO PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE UNSETTLED BUT
THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THE STATE WOULD
GET...IF ANY. RIGHT NOW...THE MODELS ARE BULLISH FOR THE SUNDAY
PERIOD ESPECIALLY AS A BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH.
SUSPECT THAT THE MODELS WILL VARY QUITE A BIT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM SO STAY TUNED.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT TAF SITES...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH. A WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SSW
OVERNIGHT...WITH TYPICAL DRAINAGE-TYPE WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 11

.FIRE WEATHER...
...EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...

ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
FOLLOWING A TYPICAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND. WETTING RAINS FROM THIS ROUND
OF CONVECTION WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC DRY SLOT BEGINS TO WORK-OVER THE STATE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TREND DOWN...EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DRY SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WINDS WILL LIKELY HIT
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ZONES 101...105 AND 109. THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH COVERING THOSE ZONES LOOKS GOOD AND THE LATEST
FORECAST DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT EXPANDING IT FURTHER EAST AT THIS
TIME. WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS THE DRY LINE ADVANCES
EASTWARD AND SPARKS A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION.

DRY WESTERLIES WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY AND
VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE AN UPWARD TREND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY FRIDAY...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE
OVER THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER A
LITTLE DAYTIME MIXING...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A LITTLE RELIEF IS
FORECAST SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST-BOUND
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY...BUT CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON...................... 43 79 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 30 75 31 75 / 0 0 5 5
CUBA............................ 39 77 39 78 / 10 5 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 35 75 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 33 72 33 71 / 10 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 35 77 36 75 / 10 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 41 75 41 73 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 47 81 42 78 / 5 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 34 69 37 70 / 5 10 5 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 74 51 76 / 10 5 5 5
PECOS........................... 46 73 46 75 / 20 10 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 74 37 75 / 10 10 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 37 62 36 64 / 10 20 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 33 64 32 66 / 20 20 10 10
TAOS............................ 35 74 36 76 / 10 10 5 10
MORA............................ 38 70 40 73 / 20 20 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 39 81 37 82 / 10 10 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 48 74 47 76 / 10 10 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 78 45 80 / 10 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 79 52 80 / 10 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 53 80 53 81 / 10 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 81 49 83 / 10 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 50 81 47 82 / 10 0 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 48 82 45 83 / 10 5 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 81 47 81 / 10 0 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 49 84 47 85 / 10 5 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 77 43 79 / 10 10 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 47 79 46 81 / 10 10 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 45 76 44 78 / 20 10 10 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 74 45 76 / 30 20 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 77 48 79 / 20 10 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 43 81 43 82 / 20 10 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 44 73 47 74 / 30 20 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 46 68 47 71 / 20 30 30 20
RATON........................... 39 75 42 78 / 20 30 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 38 74 40 77 / 30 30 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 74 43 76 / 30 20 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 49 71 54 72 / 20 30 40 40
ROY............................. 45 73 49 74 / 20 30 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 51 80 52 81 / 20 30 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 81 52 84 / 30 20 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 83 59 81 / 30 30 30 30
CLOVIS.......................... 53 79 58 79 / 40 30 40 30
PORTALES........................ 55 81 59 81 / 40 30 40 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 52 86 55 88 / 30 20 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 50 86 57 88 / 20 20 20 20
PICACHO......................... 47 82 50 86 / 30 20 20 20
ELK............................. 45 79 49 81 / 30 20 20 10

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-105-109.

GUYER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

1148 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/

FOR KAMA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 09Z BEFORE
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS...DEVELOP WITH WINDS TURNING
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR RETURNING BY 18Z. DECIDED TO INCLUDE A VCTS
BETWEEN 22Z-02Z AS THIS SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE TSRA NEAR
THE TERMINAL.

FOR KDHT AND KGUY...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS...WILL
DEVELOP /CONTINUE FOR KGUY/ WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10-15KTS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z...WITH VFR
RETURNING BY 19Z. BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE TSRA WILL STAY SOUTH OF
THESE TERMINALS SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.

KNS

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012/

SVR TSTM WATCH 152 HAS EXPIRED AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND PUBLIC
PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012/

UPDATE... HAVE CANCELLED PARTS OF SVR TSTM WATCH 152 BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. STILL A CLUSTER OF STORMS ONGOING IN SERN AND ERN ZONES SO
WILL LEAVE THE WATCH UP FOR THAT AREA TIL EXPIRATION AT 04Z. ALSO
REDUCED POPS ALL ZONES REST OF TONIGHT AS PRECIP COVERAGE CONTINUES
TO DECREASE. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND GRIDS COMPLETED.

ANDRADE

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 408 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012/

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON CENTERS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

CLK

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

1123 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.UPDATE...
SVR TSTM WATCH 152 HAS EXPIRED AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND PUBLIC
PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ANDRADE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012/

UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED PARTS OF SVR TSTM WATCH 152 BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
STILL A CLUSTER OF STORMS ONGOING IN SERN AND ERN ZONES SO WILL LEAVE
THE WATCH UP FOR THAT AREA TIL EXPIRATION AT 04Z. ALSO REDUCED POPS
ALL ZONES REST OF TONIGHT AS PRECIP COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE.
UPDATED PRODUCTS AND GRIDS COMPLETED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012/

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON CENTERS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

CLK

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

1116 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR BROWNFIELD
TO TAHOKA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON
HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS LINE WILL MAKE IT...BUT BELIEVE SOME
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INCLUDED A VCTS GROUP AT KABI STARTING AT 07Z...AND ENDING AT 10Z.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MIGHT MAKE IT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THE OTHER
SITES. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 12
KNOTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. POPS WERE INCREASED
ACROSS THE WEST AND BROUGHT FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE HEARTLAND
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MODEL ANALYSIS. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEST TX CONVECTION WILL EXTEND BUT UPON COORDINATION WITH
SPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE OPTED TO INCLUDE CROCKETT COUNTY
IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL. SBCAPE VALUES ARE NOT EXTREME PER THE RUC MESOANALYSIS
BUT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE 12Z KMAF SOUNDING SHOWED VERY IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SO THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH
INITIALLY.

JOHNSON

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
THIS EVENING. THESE MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND APPROACH OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS...SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS
GROUP AT KABI STARTING AT 06Z. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE OTHER TAF
SITES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF STORMS TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE
TO 10 TO 14 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AS BLOW OFF FROM THE CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION.

DANIELS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012/

ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 61 83 60 81 62 / 30 10 20 10 40
SAN ANGELO 60 85 60 83 63 / 20 10 10 10 40
JUNCTION 58 84 60 82 64 / 10 10 10 10 30

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DANIELS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

352 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
351 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

AT 3 AM...CURRENTLY WATCHING THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. OVERALL THE
NAM/WRF AND RUC ARE HANDLING THESE CLOUDS THE BEST...AND THEY ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
PUSHING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 4C COLDER /AROUND -8C/...HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S. THIS IS
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSALL DATA SET AND ABOUT 5 DEGREE
COOLER THAN THE MOS TEMPERATURES.

FOR TONIGHT...IT LOOKS WE WILL HAVE IDEAL RADIATIVE CONDITIONS
/CLEAR SKIES...LOW DEW POINTS...AND LIGHT WINDS/ FOR TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE 20S. THERE MAY BE EVEN A FEW TEENS IN THE
CRANBERRY BOGS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...WE WILL HAVE TO
ISSUE ANOTHER A FREEZE WARNING. TO AVOID ANY CONFUSION...WE PLAN
ON ISSUING THE NEW WARNING AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE OTHER ONE
WILL BE EXPIRING.

ON THURSDAY...THE 10.00Z MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER AT MOVING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE BEST 925 AND
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF
DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THIS...TOOK OUT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT WERE IN THERE FORECAST GRIDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE ON THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST AND
HAS THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. BOTH THE GEM
AND NAM/WRF MOVE THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FINALLY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE ENTIRE AREA DRY. SINCE
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...KEPT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
351 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

LIKE THEIR PREDECESSORS...THE 10.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY
LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER THAN USUAL.

OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY...
BUT THIS OCCURS A BIT SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECT
OUT OF THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS
HAVE BEEN SO INCONSISTENT THAT THE PRECIPITATION WAS BROAD
BRUSHED. HOWEVER THIS SET OF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...THERE WILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE
SHOWERS.

AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS QUICKLY DEVELOP A
SPLIT FLOW. THE SOUTHERN STREAM KEEPS A TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM DIPS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW ANOTHER COOL CANADIAN HIGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT IS THIS TIME PERIOD
WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW. MUCH OF THIS HAS TO DEAL
WITH HOW THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING A MODERATE TO STRONG MADDEN
JULIAN OSCILLATION /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND
ATLANTIC/. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE JAPANESE METEOROLOGY AGENCY
ENSEMBLE SYSTEM /JMAN/...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WIPE OUT THIS
MJO RAPIDLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CONSIDERING ITS
STRENGTH...THIS SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A
BRIEF WARM UP AS WE ENTER PHASE 1 /OVER AFRICA/ BY THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COOL DOWN AS THE MJO STARTS INTO
THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN /PHASE 2/ BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...
1105 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ON TUESDAY...WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS POINTING TO MIXING OF UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS UPWARDS OF 850
MB. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP BETWEEN 13-15Z TUE...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH AT KRST. IT DOESN/T APPEAR AS WINDY AS TODAY
THOUGH. WINDS WILL HAVE THE USUAL DIURNAL DIP WITH SUNDOWN.

BKN-OVC 5 KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF MN/WI
LATEST RUC13/NAM12 SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF KRST/KLSE...ALTHOUGH SEE SOME THREAT OF GETTING
INTO KLSE. SOME AFTERNOON CU ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD MASS
SEEMS MORE LIKELY.

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
351 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY WERE
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE DEW POINTS WILL BE SIMILAR. AS
A RESULT...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES /25 TO 30 PERCENT/ WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER /AROUND 20 MPH/ THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
TOO. ALL OF THESE ALONG WITH VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY /JUST
UNDER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA/ FOR TODAY. ANY PLANS FOR OUTDOOR
BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE DO NOT MIX QUITE AS DEEP /UP TO 875 MB/ AND THE
DEW POINTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...SO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS OVERHEAD. WITH LESS WIND
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...NOT EXPECTING THE RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY FIRES THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
259 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.

IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION..........RIECK
FIRE WEATHER......BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

331 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.VERY SHORT TERM....TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW
TO MEDIUM.

MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING WEAK FORCING FROM MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CAUSED MID CLOUDS TO EXPAND OVER SOUTHEAST WI
OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC CARRIES THIS WEAK WAVE ACROSS SRN WI EARLY
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SECOND WEAK WAVE OVER FAR
NORTH CENTRAL MN WHICH MOVES ON A SIMILAR TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 11-3.9
MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING
BOTH OF THESE WAVES. WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS...AND LINGERING THERMAL TROF...EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN OVER ERN CWA...WITH MORE OF A BALANCE IN THE WEST. FOR NOW
WL HOLD OFF ON M/CLDY WORDING AS EXPECTING SEVERAL PERIODS OF AT
LEAST P/SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY.

WL DROP DODGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES FROM FREEZE WARNING EARLY THIS
MRNG AS BKN-OVC SHOULD LINGER IN THESE AREAS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. WITH KBUU AND KJVL IN THE LOW 30S...WL
CONTINUE FREEZE WARNING IN WALWORTH COUNTY AND POINTS WEST UNTIL
14Z. CLOUDS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL ONLY ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS
TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM PASSING LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI BUT SCT-BKN
CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA. ALSO...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVER THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH THE DELTA-T AROUND
12C. HENCE WITH CLEARING IN THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPS LIKELY TO FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUDS AND TEMPS FALLING TO 28F OR LOWER
LATER TONIGHT...HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE
TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE. ALSO...REMOVED FROST WORDING TONIGHT DUE
TO TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAINING HIGH.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE FOCUS AS CURRENT RELATIVELY COLD TREND
CONTINUES WITH WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EASTERN
TROUGH AND PLAINS RIDGE. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT 925MB TEMPERATURES MODIFY A BIT UPWARD WITH DRY
ADIABATIC MIXING TO THAT LEVEL BRINGING HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S INLAND...WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE STRATOCUMULUS HOLDING READINGS IN THE 40S.

WEAK...SHEARED VORTICITY ON PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND
WEST OF STATE SHIFTS BACK EAST ACROSS STATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
ECMWF AN OUTLIER...BRINGING A STRONG VORT SOUTHEAST FROM NWRN
MN...REACHING SW WI/NW IL AROUND 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER COLUMN
REMAINS DRY ON ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO NO POP...AND LITTLE TO NO
CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING SUB-FREEZING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS. WILL HAVE
PATCHY FROST...AND AREAS OF FROST WHERE LOW TEMPS FALL BELOW 30F.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THURSDAY AS 850-700 MB RIDGE AXES
SHIFT EAST. SURFACE HIGH ALSO CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES BY 00Z
FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON WEST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
ALL DAY IN THE EAST. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WEST...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

NAM AND GFS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z FRIDAY WITH 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
WILL TIME PRECIPITATION ACROSS CWA WITH BEST ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC
OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. LOWS BETWEEN 06Z AND
09Z FRIDAY...THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY WARM WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WET END OF THE WEEK/BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EJECT FROM WESTERN TROUGH. SOME PLACEMENT/TIMING DIFFERENCES
WHICH MAY IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND STORM MODE...BUT CONSENSUS BLEND
BRINGS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH WAA
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...
BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING WITH SHORT
WAVE...TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COOLER AIR
DROPPING SOUTH BEHIND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SECONDARY WAVE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BRUSH
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PERIODS OF MOSTLY VFR CLOUDS EXPCD TODAY AND
MOSTLY ERN AREAS TONIGHT. SCT CLOUDS MAY APPROACH 3K FEET FOR A
TIME TODAY AND IN THE EAST TNGT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NLY. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS LATER THIS MRNG AND
AFTN.

.MARINE...COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MODIS IMAGERY FROM 17Z/09 MEASURED LAKE SURFACE
TEMPS 4-5C AWAY FROM THE SHALLOWER NEARSHORE WATERS...CONFIRMED BY
SOUTH LAKE BUOY TEMP. RESULTANT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE
AS WELL AS OVER THE LAKESHORE AREAS...WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO
AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVE.
WL EXTEND ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE EVE TO
ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING GUSTINESS. WINDS WL REMAIN GUSTY TNGT...BUT
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW ADVY CRITERIA.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-056-
057-062-063-067>070.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...REM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

257 AM MDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

PLETHORA OF SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS...DEALING MAINLY WITH
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA LIES ACROSS
CENTRAL COLORADO...UP INTO CARBON COUNTY AND THEN NORTHWEST INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS REALLY MOISTENED UP WITH LOW STRATUS
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN COLORADO UP INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
SO FAR THIS MORNING. THIS STRATUS IS JUST STARTING TO PUSH INTO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ATTM. OFF TO OUR WEST...A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT IS JUST COMING ASHORE NEAR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

FOR TODAY...ONE MORE DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE LOW 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE TRICKY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...DEPENDING ON WHEN STRATUS BREAKS UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...THAT WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT BAY. WE WILL BE RIGHT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY JUST OFF TO OUR WEST OVER IN CARBON
COUNTY SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SERVE AS THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. NOTHING TOO MAJOR THOUGH AS AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICES ONLY
DROP TO -3 WITH CAPES OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AROUND 500
J/KG. NAM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DOES SHOW CAP BREAKING AROUND
21-22Z WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DROPPING LESS THAN -50 J/KG.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY...DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY THE
STRATUS BURNS OFF. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT AS WE
STAY IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPING WIND FLOW. CONTINUED THE
INHERITED STRATUS AND FOG FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR LATER THIS EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING BY THE
MID MORNING HOURS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS FORECAST OUT OVER CARBON
COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KTS.
UPPER SHORTWAVE FORECAST ON THE GFS TO BE TRACKING ACROSS UTAH BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER MOST OF
WYOMING. BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIE OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH THIS
AREA REMAINING IN STRATUS AND THUS CAPPED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GFS
IS SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A DECENT WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WYOMING AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

COULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG WIND EVENT THURSDAY MORNING AS GFS SHOWS
700MB WINDS INCREASING TO 60KTS OVER CONVERSE AND NORTHERN CARBON
COUNTIES. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH WIND WATCH ON THIS EVENT. FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND -6C BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE OVER THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ON FRI. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON FRI AFTN...AND
WITH SOME 700-500MB MOISTURE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
WEST WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FOUR CORNERS ON FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH INTO UT/AZ ON FRI NIGHT...THEY DIFFER
ON HOW THE SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MORE OF
AN OPEN MIDLEVEL TROUGH AS THE MAIN ENERGY MOVES OVER EASTERN CO
ON SAT AFTN...WHEREAS THE CANADIAN IS MORE CLOSED. REGARDLESS OF
THE SOLN...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED PASS OVER THE AREA ON SAT
MORNING ALONG WITH DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. QG UPWARD MOTION PLOTS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM LOW TO
UPPER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
SOUNDINGS AT KCYS DURING THE PRECIP EVENT SUPPORT SNOW...WITH NE
UPSLOPE WINDS AND WET BULB ZERO LEVELS NEAR THE GROUND. FURTHER
EAST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...RAIN
WITH PERHAPS A MIXTURE OF SNOW LOOKS MOST PROBABLE. DRYING OCCURS
ON SUN AFTN AS THE MAIN ENERGY PULLS EASTWARD...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
LEFT BEHIND OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS
INCREASING POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD AND NEEDED PRECIP TO THE
CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEEKEND STORM.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE SREF SHOW
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FROM CHEYENNE
TO SIDNEY. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED STRATUS AT SCOTTSBLUFF AND
ALLIANCE AS WELL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
PERIODS OF CIRRUS SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 10 KT
OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...ANY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS BURN SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND MID-MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z AT CHEYENNE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KT.

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. FORTUNATELY...WINDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY KEEPING FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MINIMAL TODAY. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW...DROPPING TO 10
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD SET OFF WIDELY
SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS MOISTEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND
DECREASING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE SPRING GREEN UP
AND DECREASE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM/AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

627 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
351 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
351 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

LIKE THEIR PREDECESSORS...THE 10.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY
LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER THAN USUAL.

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
627 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THIS FLOW IS RESULTING IN A LAYER OF VFR
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS HAVE PRODUCED A CEILING AT BOTH KRGK AND KMSP AND
COULD POSSIBLY ROTATE INTO KLSE BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...IR
SATELLITE IS SHOWING A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND SO THE CLOUDS COULD
BE NOTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERED DECK BY THE TIME THEY ARRIVE AT
KLSE. DECIDED TO CARRY THE SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH A TEMPO FOR A
BROKEN CEILING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS DURING THE MID AND LATE
MORNING. ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS THIS MORNING...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER DAY WITH DEEP MIXING AT BOTH SITES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT
THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
TWO DAYS. EXPECTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET AND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS GETS CLOSER
TO THE REGION.

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
351 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
259 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.

IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER......BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION...

NWS DENVER CO

410 PM MDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...CUMULUS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL AS ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF
DENVER. LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
IN THIS AREA...LESS ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SOME CIN. LATEST RUC AND
NAM RUNS STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS
AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE FOR THIS EVENING...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL HOLDING ON TO SOME CAPE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLIES REDEVELOP ACROSS PLAINS WHICH WILL ADVECT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD TOWARD FOOTHILLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
MORE OF A DRIZZLE PROFILE THAT RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
DENVER. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW ALL OF PLAINS WITH AREAS OF FOG...AND
THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AFTER 06Z. MAIN CHANGE WILL BE TO GO WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE RATHER THAN RAIN SHOWERS. THOUGHT ABOUT INCLUDING
FOOTHILLS IN THE MUCK...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW WITH
NOT MUCH ADVECTION. WILL NOT ADD FOG OR DRIZZLE FOR FOOTHILLS. ON
THURSDAY... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OVER WEST COAST. THE LINGERING DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD BE
DISSIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD HELP TO
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. CURRENT
CHANCE POPS SEEM ON TRACK FOR NOW. A COUPLE OF ITEMS OF CONCERN.
FIRSTLY...THERE IS SOME THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG URBAN CORRIDOR
AND PALMER DIVIDE WHERE MODELS GENERATE CAPES CLOSE TO 1500 J/KG. SO
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. FURTHER
EAST...AIRMASS LOOKS A BIT TOO STABLE...WHICH COULD LIMIT STORM
THREAT. BUT WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER IN CASE BOUNDARIES
ARE SUFFICIENT TO HELP POP SOME STORMS. NEXT CONCERN IS THE INCREASE
IN WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WILL HOIST A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE VALLEYS FROM NOON THROUGH 8PM. SOME
QUESTION FOR SOUTH PARK AS THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR STORMS. THIS
MAY INCREASE THE RED FLAG THREAT WITH THE OUTFLOW CONCERN FOR
OUTFLOW WIND. ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING BUT NOT THE MAIN
CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS GOOD. AVAILABLE ENERGY WILL BE
DIMINISHING AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO ANY GUST FRONTS TO KEEP THINGS
GOING IN DESPITE THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH COOL MOIST AIR POOLING EAST OF A DEVELOPING DRYLINE.
PROBABLY TOO COOL FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA...DROPPED HIGHS A BIT
NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER DUE TO LIKELY CLOUD COVER THROUGH MIDDAY.
WEAK LIFT MOVES IN BY FRIDAY...STILL PROBABLY A BIT STABLE BUT
I WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION.

THE BIG EVENT IS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WEST THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT...BUT
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THE FLOW. LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE HAD A CLOSED LOW THAT TAKES 2-3 DAYS TO MOVE
FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...DUMPING SEVERAL
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
TRACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE ENERGY
IN THE TROUGH MORE. SOME OF THE ECMWF RUNS HAVE PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN A SHORTER DURATION EVENT...BUT THE
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN TO HAVE THE SECONDARY JET STREAM SPLIT OFF THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH WHILE THE NORTHERN PART PASSES OVER
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART BEING SLOWER AND
PRETTY FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON NORTHERN COLORADO. THE
SLOWNESS OF THE GFS SEEMS EXTREME GIVEN A LARGER SCALE PATTERN
WITHOUT DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING...THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME SPLITTING OR WOBBLING OF THE LOW. CANNOT DISCOUNT
SOME KIND OF WOBBLY LOW BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT WHAT
SEEMS LIKE THE UNLIKELY GFS SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP US IN THE RIGHT
SPOT FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR 60 HOURS. ESRL/PSD REANALYSIS
PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...BUT PRETTY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH. THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD HAVE A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LITTLE OR NOTHING
AFTER THAT. WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A CLOSED LOW TO THE
SOUTH...WOULD STILL GIVE HEED TO THE CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION THAT COULD LAST A WHILE. EVEN THESE SOLUTIONS COULD
GIVE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER A LONG TIME. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...PRETTY WARM FOR MUCH SNOW IN DENVER. MODEL
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SOMEWHERE AROUND 5-6
THOUSAND FEET WHICH COULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF ANY SNOW WITH
A WARM GROUND AND AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS TIME.

BOTTOM LINE...FOR NOW NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST...WILL RAISE
THE POPS A BIT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH IS THE
MOST LIKELY TIME.

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WIND TO GRADUALLY DECREASE...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AS DRAINAGE PATTERN DEVELOPS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP AS WELL AS SOME DRIZZLE. COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS FROM
10Z-15Z AT AREA AIRPORTS...AFFECTING MAINLY DIA. CHANCE FOR STORMS
AFTER 18Z...MAINLY ALONG FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL AS
AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING IN
TAFS FOR NOW. POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THOSE STORMS
AFFECTING THE AREA AIRPORTS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ211-213-
214.

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...D-L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER CO

357 PM MDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...CUMULUS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL AS ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF
DENVER. LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
IN THIS AREA...LESS ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SOME CIN. LATEST RUC AND
NAM RUNS STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS
AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE FOR THIS EVENING...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL HOLDING ON TO SOME CAPE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THIS REGION FOR THIS EVENING...DROPPING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WILL ALSO KEEP A PORTION OF ZONE 34 OVER
PARK COUNTY. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES REDEVELOP ACROSS PLAINS
WHICH WILL ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD TOWARD
FOOTHILLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MORE OF A DRIZZLE PROFILE
THAT RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF DENVER. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW
ALL OF PLAINS WITH AREAS OF FOG...AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AFTER
06Z. MAIN CHANGE WILL BE TO GO WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE RATHER THAN
RAIN SHOWERS. THOUGHT ABOUT INCLUDING FOOTHILLS IN THE MUCK...BUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW WITH NOT MUCH ADVECTION. WILL NOT
ADD FOG OR DRIZZLE FOR FOOTHILLS. ON THURSDAY... SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST COAST.
THE LINGERING DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD BE DISSIPATED BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. CURRENT CHANCE POPS SEEM ON
TRACK FOR NOW. A COUPLE OF ITEMS OF CONCERN. FIRSTLY...THERE IS
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER
DIVIDE WHERE MODELS GENERATE CAPES CLOSE TO 1500 J/KG. SO
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. FURTHER
EAST...AIRMASS LOOKS A BIT TOO STABLE...WHICH COULD LIMIT STORM
THREAT. BUT WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER IN CASE BOUNDARIES
ARE SUFFICIENT TO HELP POP SOME STORMS. NEXT CONCERN IS THE
INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
WILL HOIST A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE VALLEYS FROM NOON THROUGH
8PM. SOME QUESTION FOR SOUTH PARK AS THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR
STORMS. THIS MAY INCREASE THE RED FLAG THREAT WITH THE OUTFLOW
CONCERN FOR OUTFLOW WIND. ALSO A SMALL THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING BUT
NOT THE MAIN CONCERN.

BOTTOM LINE...FOR NOW NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST...WILL RAISE
THE POPS A BIT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH IS THE
MOST LIKELY TIME.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ211-213-
214.

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...D-L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

1017 AM MDT TUE APR 10 2012

.UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS WELD COUNTY
AS WELL AS ALONG PALMER DIVIDE AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER...THOUGH
HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. SHOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. OVERALL...CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK...WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY. STILL THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
URBAN CORRIDOR. RUC STILL SHOWING FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH
CAPES FROM 500 TO ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIND THAN RAIN...WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND ALONG WITH THE LIGHTNING. STILL LOOKING TOO
STABLE EAST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON LINE FOR ANY CONVECTION.
CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WITH PERHAPS DRIZZLE OR EVEN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

.AVIATION...FOG ACROSS WELD COUNTY ON THE DECREASE...WILL NOT BE
A THREAT TO THE AREA AIRPORTS. WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...COULD BRIEFLY SEE GUSTS AROUND
15-18 KTS FROM 21Z-00Z. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE AND AREAS EAST
OF THE DENVER AREA. CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE VCTS IN THE TAFS.
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AFFECTING THE AIRPORTS...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
WRAP BACK INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DENVER AREA. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TAF TRENDS FOR TONIGHT. OVERALL...ONGOING
TAFS LOOK REASONABLE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM MDT TUE APR 10 2012/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THRU TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL RESIDE OVER WRN
CO AS SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAVE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NERN CO. CURRENTLY A WK DENVER
CYCLONE IS OVER SRN WELD COUNTY BUT BY AFTN IT MAY REDEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTH OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH A WK CONVERGENCE FM JUST
EAST OF DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTN
CAPES RANGING FM 500-1000 ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SO COULD SEE
SOME WDLY SCT TSTMS DVLP BY LATE AFTN ALONG THE BNDRY. APPEARS ERN
EXTENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE WEST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON LINE
SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY POPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS AS AIRMASS WILL
BE QUITE STABLE. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE
BETTER EAST OF THE DIVIDE SO COULD SEE A FEW HIGHER BASED STORMS
AS WELL BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES. HIGHS THIS AFTN OVER NERN CO WILL BE
AFFECTED BY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS READINGS OVER THE FAR NERN
PLAINS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MEANWHILE CLOSER
TO THE FRONT RANGE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70-75 RANGE WITH THE
WARMER READINGS NEAR DENVER.

LONG TERM...MODELS PERSIST WITH THE IDEA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PUSHING ACROSS THE THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF
US AND GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
STABILITY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DENVER. BUT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO SPREAD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
EASTWARD WHICH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE I MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TOMORROW MORNING.

AVIATION...TRICKY FCST THIS MORNING AS WK DENVER CYCLONE IS OVER
SRN WELD COUNTY. LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY
WRAP AROUND THIS FEATURE TOWARDS SUNRISE. CURRENT HRRR AND RCU
KEEP THIS STRATUS/FOG JUST NORTH OF DIA THRU MID MORNING HOWEVER
IF SFC WINDS BECOME LIGHT NWLY SOME OF THIS STRATUS/FOG COULD
AFFECT THE AIRPORT. IF IT DOES ROLL IN CEILINGS COULD EASILY DROP
BLO 500 FT WITH VISBILITIES DROPPING BLO 1/2 MILE FOR A FEW HOURS.
THUS WILL MENTION A TEMPO GROUP IN THE NEXT TAF FOR THE 12Z-15Z
TIME PERIOD.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

503 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...
343 PM CDT

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST STATES SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SLACKEN TOWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO THE MIXING UP TO 5000
FEET AND 850MB WILL NOT TAP INTO AS HIGH OF WINDS AS THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 14 KNOTS BY WED
AFTERNOON.

1000-850MB WINDS WILL VEER NORTH TONIGHT AFTER 06Z WED. DURING THIS
TIME...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -5C AND LAKE
TEMPS AROUND 6C OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP LAKE CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COOLING...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW LOW THE TEMPS WILL GET TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT TEMPS
ARE ONLY AROUND 40 NEAR THE LAKE AND WILL NOT HAVE THAT FAR TO FALL
TO FREEZING OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...INLAND TEMPS SHOULD GET DOWN TO THE
28 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
THEREFORE...EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...SO
MORE FREEZE HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...SO SHOULD SEE FROST MOST PLACES. A PLEASANT DAY THEN
EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD SEE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS FRIDAY...WITH SOME THUNDER
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN POSSIBLE SATURDAY RIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS A COUPLE LOWS MOVE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SITTING
ACROSS THE AREA. LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCE POPS
THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. COOLER AIR SAGS
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY.

DDV

.FIRE WEATHER...
1230 PM CDT

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW DEW POINTS HERE AND
UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO
NEAR OR BELOW 25 PERCENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. ALSO AIDING IN THE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE THE
LOW FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS. SO WITH THE CONTINUED CONCERNS...RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTH...LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MORE IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.

MRC

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
* WIND DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY.

PAW

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

STILL HAVE CONCERNS REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZE. MESONET
OBS AT 19Z SHOWED THAT WINDS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE WERE
CONSISTENTLY FROM ABOUT 350-360 DEGREES...WHILE LOCATIONS FURTHER
INLAND WERE RANGING FROM 310-330 DEGREES. HOWEVER...ORD HAS
SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION /350/ DESPITE SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS OF 320-330. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LAKE
BREEZE PUSHING SLOWLY WESTWARD BY 20-21Z THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING
OVER MDW BETWEEN 21-22Z. THE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAKE ARE NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF THE HRRR SOLUTION THROUGH 20Z...SO CONFIDENCE IN
LOWERING IN THE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MDW OR ORD. WILL KEEP
A 350 WIND AT ORD...AND BRING MDW TO 350 BY 23Z. GUST-WISE...EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER MDW/ORD HAS HELPED KEEP GUSTS DOWN A
BIT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES HAVE GUSTED TO 25-30 KNOTS WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER ALLOWS FOR MORE MIXING. BY ABOUT 22-23Z...WILL
SEE THE GUSTINESS LOWER AND THEN END BY SUNSET...AND THE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...THE
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15-16Z...WITH DIRECTIONS TRENDING MORE TOWARD 010-030 DEGREES
AFTER MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY AT ORD/MDW AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH
STARTS BUILDING INTO WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

SHIMON

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TREND THIS EVEING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION WEDNESDAY.

PAW

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. POSSIBLE MVFR. CMS

.MARINE...
343 PM CDT

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
THE LAKES REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THEY TURN MORE NORTHERLY. WINDS
DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE
LAKE. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END GALES OVER THE NORTH END OF
THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE ISLANDS BUT
NOT EXPECTING GALES TO BECOME PREVAILING OR FREQUENT AT THIS TIME.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION AND VARIOUS COLD/WARM
FRONTS IMPACTING THE LAKE.

CMS

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...RED FLAG WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.

FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM
WEDNESDAY.

IN...FREEZE WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...1 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY.

RED FLAG WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
343 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...
343 PM CDT

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

DDV

.FIRE WEATHER...
1230 PM CDT

MRC

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* LOCATION OF LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
* WIND DIRECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHIMON

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...

SHIMON

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOCATION OF WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY.

SHIMON

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. POSSIBLE MVFR. CMS

.MARINE...
343 PM CDT

CMS

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...RED FLAG WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.

FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM
WEDNESDAY.

IN...FREEZE WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...1 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY.

RED FLAG WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.UPDATE...
1230 PM CDT

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THEN NORTHEAST
STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
CAUSING PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MIXING
DEEPER THAN 850MB TODAY IS ALLOWING FOR DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS...WITH EVEN A FEW SITES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. MIN RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE
SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS DUE TO THE DEEP
MIXING. THEREFORE...GOING RED FLAG WARNING SEEMS SUFFICIENT.

STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RUC CU-RULE SUPPORTS THE
EXPANSION OF CLOUDS.

WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION...NOT EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO
EXCEED LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH AND MID 40S IN THE NORTH.

MRC

//PREV DISCUSSION...
305 AM CDT

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CONTINUED DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURE
THREATS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LONG RANGE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH THUNDER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
BECOME THE MAIN CHALLENGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

AN EXPANSIVE RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DRAPED ACROSS QUEBEC
EARLY THIS MORNING. A WAVE EXTENDING WEST FROM THIS NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE DAYTIME MIXING LAYER /850-800
MB/. A STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER JET OVER THE AREA IS LEADING THIS
WAVE SOUTH AND AS THIS JET SHIFTS SOUTHEAST IT HAS BEEN DRAGGING
SOME STRATOCU WITH IT ON ITS CYCLONIC SIDE. THIS LOOKS TO EXPAND
INTO NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN TODAY...LIKELY MORE SO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES AROUND SEVEN TO TEN DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED...WHICH IS NOT A HUGE DEPARTURE BUT
RELATIVE TO HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN IN THE PAST MONTH IT WILL LIKELY
FEEL IT. IN FACT...TODAYS HIGHS AT ORD AND RFD LOOK TO BE IN THE
TOP THREE COOLEST DAYS OVER THE PAST MONTH...IF NOT THE COOLEST
HIGH SINCE MARCH 9TH.

DEW POINTS STAYED LOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRIMARILY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S AWAY FROM THE MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE. PARCEL TRAJECTORIES TODAY CONTINUE TO INDICATE FLOW
FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS. GIVEN PROJECTED MIXING...SEEMS PLAUSIBLE TO
HAVE DEW POINTS INDEED IN THE MID TEENS AND HUMIDITY IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OFF TO THE
RACES THIS MORNING WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEING WELL-MIXED JUST A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH LOOK REASONABLE
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHICH ALSO CORRELATES IN AREA
TO THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG THIS MORNING WILL DROP
SOUTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT TURNING OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW MORE TOWARD
DUE NORTH. THIS MAY AID IN SOME LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER INTO
NORTHWEST IN...BUT THE PROJECTED SATURATED LAYER IS FAIRLY THIN.
THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU AND A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GET AND FOR HOW MANY HOURS BELOW FREEZING. SO
HAVE A FREEZE WARNING IN THE WEST FOR TONIGHT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
THE HIGHEST...AND WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED HAVE A WATCH AT THIS
TIME. FORECAST READINGS OF 28 OR LOWER FOR A HARD FREEZE ARE NOT
FORECAST TONIGHT AT THIS TIME.

MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP TO BRING MORE OF A
MARINE LAYER INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IL.
WHILE IT MAY NOT BE A TRUE LAKE BREEZE...LAKE-INDUCED COOLING
KEEPING READINGS AT OR BELOW 50 DEGREES LOOK TO BE THE CASE FOR
THE LAKE BORDERING COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS. BY EVENING THIS RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR CALM WINDS. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR...EVEN WITH ONE LAST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
THAT LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE-STARVED MOVING OVER THE AREA. THIS SETUP
WILL ALLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIKELY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THIS
STRETCH FOR MOST COMMUNITIES. HAVE NOT ISSUED A HEADLINE AT THIS
TIME WITH THE FREEZING CONCERNS TONIGHT BEING FIRST. BUT ONE WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN TIME. AT THE VERY LEAST...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SETUP LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR FROST WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF WE STAY MAINLY
CLEAR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN STILL IS ON TRACK TO ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
WEEKS END. TWO MAIN UPPER WAVES LOOK TO MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC
SHORE LATE THIS WEEK TO ESTABLISH A LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERING MUCH
OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AHEAD OF THIS...A PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER PLAINS
BY THURSDAY AND BEGIN BRINGING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TOWARD THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THOUGH STILL PREVAIL OVER THE OUR
AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AND HAVE SINCE REMOVED MUCH OF THE
POPS WITH THE OVERALL SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT CONSISTENCY WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS TO THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING THE COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS
JUST VARY IN SPEED WITH THE EC BEING THE SLOWER AND MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION. AS SUCH...THE TIMING OF THE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO MN
AND WI IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH A STRONG AND
ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DURING THAT PERIOD.

THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND MAY BE SLOWER THAN THE PRESENTLY
FORECAST SUNDAY ARRIVAL. THE SLOWER THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
THE GREATER THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE START TO NEXT WEEK AS
WELL DUE TO THE BOUNDARY HANGING UP CLOSER TO THE AREA. WHILE IT
IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT..THE INSTABILITY SHEAR SPECTRUM FAVORING
A CHANCE FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MTF

.FIRE WEATHER...
1230 PM CDT

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW DEW POINTS HERE AND UPSTREAM TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO NEAR OR BELOW 25
PERCENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. ALSO AIDING IN THE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE THE LOW FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS. SO WITH THE CONTINUED CONCERNS...RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTH...LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MORE IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON.

MRC

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* LOCATION OF LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
* WIND DIRECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHIMON

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...

SHIMON

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOCATION OF WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY.

SHIMON

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. POSSIBLE MVFR. CMS

.MARINE...
300 AM CDT

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...RED FLAG WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.

FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-
ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ039...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY.

FREEZE WATCH...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ033...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY.

IN...FREEZE WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...1 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY.

RED FLAG WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

628 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY, MILDER WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECENT SURFACE DATA SHOWS COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FASTER THAN
WHAT MODELS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALREADY SNOW, WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER THAN 42, DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. HENCE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FASTER TONIGHT AND
ADDED MENTION OF EXCLUSIVELY SNOW SHOWERS ONCE TEMPERATURES GO
COLDER THAN 42.

PER RECENT HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT, WHICH HAVE FORECASTED THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES, HAVE LOWS FOR MOST PLACES COLDER THAN 32. SO
HAVE ENLARGED THE FREEZE WARNING TO COVER ALL AREAS.

WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROJECTED AT BEST NR -5 C DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A CHANGE TO RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS RISE TOWARD THE MID 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE WARM GROUND AND LIMITED FREEZE DURATION OF SURFACE
TEMPS...EXPECT NO MORE THAN MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION.

NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST WINDS GUSTS CAN PEAK AROUND 30 MPH.

IN ADDITION...AS WIND VEERS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...THE
FETCH OFF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH...WHICH WL DECREASE THE SHOWER
COVERAGE VIA DRY ADVECTION. WITH ONGOING COLD ADVECTION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL USING
LATEST NAM AND SREF GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER OHIO WILL DECREASE AND WIND WILL LIGHTEN
ON WED NIGHT. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST...AND CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND PERHAPS AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH A FREEZE
WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THURSDAY...AND RETURN
TO NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE MOVING TO EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WARM AIR OVERSPREADS REGION ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS BY LATE DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPECT CWA TO BE IN WARM SECTOR SUNDAY...BUT KEPT MAX TEMPS ABOUT
5 DEGREES COOLER THAN HPC GUIDANCE. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY
MONDAY AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS REGION WITH CHANCE OF
RAIN FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON
MONDAY AGAIN KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE.

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER AIR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WL CONT TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
ACRS THE UPR OHIO REGION THIS EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR...OR NR
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTION
TO IFR WL RMN A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY AT FKL AND DUJ THROUGH THE
EVE.

DRY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT DIMINISHED SHOWER COVERAGE
AND IMPROVED CIGS ON WEDNESDAY AFTN DESPITE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION.

WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS MIXING
DIMINISHES...I.E. DECOUPLING OCCURS. WIND GUSTS WL RESUME AS
TEMPERATURES REACH CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ON WED AFTN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRES WL CONT GENL VFR INTO SATURDAY. WARM, MOIST ADVCTN
IS THEN FORECAST TO INCRS MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE SATURDAY. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WARM SURGE...BUT THE
AREA IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS. AN APPRCHING COLD FRONT IS THE EXPECTED TO UP THE
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ001.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021>023-041.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

345 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING CU ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DOWN INTO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. DEVELOPING CU WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS LIES ACROSS THIS
AREA WITH SBCAPES BETWEEN 1500- 2500 J/KG. WHILE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
FROM SPC RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IS NOT AT ALL IMPRESSIVE...GIVEN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...IF ANY STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP THEY CAN
BECOME SEVERE. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE...LOW CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE KEEPING THIS AREA UNDER A COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS. NONETHELESS DESPITE NOT HAVING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISMS TO INITIATE CONVECTION...MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WITH GREATER CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS CONVECTION FORMING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUT WEST...NEAR THE DRYLINE...PUSHES EASTWARD. IN ADDITION...A LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WHICH MAY HELP TO GENERATE
ADDITIONAL STORMS.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GETS SHUNTED FURTHER TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. PROSPECTS FOR
STORMS AND HENCE SEVERE WEATHER LOOK BETTER ON WEDNESDAY AS A VORT
MAX MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE IN EASTERN WHERE THEY CAN CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. AGAIN CONTINUED SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FURTHER DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY
HELPING TO TRANSITION THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE
LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHICH
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY. THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO
SURGE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES...WHERE IT WILL FOCUS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE WARM...MOIST...
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR
ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE DRYLINE TO PUSH FURTHER EAST...WHICH SHOULD
SHUNT ANY PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE AREA. A LOW WILL CLOSE OFF ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH WHERE IT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME IN DRIER WITH ANY
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CLK

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...HELPING TO MITIGATE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. A DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN TX/OK
PANHANDLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS HINGE UPON HOW MUCH PRECIP THE AREA RECEIVES
BEFORE THEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MONDAY.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

CLK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 54 72 54 83 49 / 40 40 50 10 10
BEAVER OK 54 60 55 81 52 / 40 40 40 30 10
BOISE CITY OK 53 59 50 81 42 / 40 40 30 10 10
BORGER TX 57 70 56 84 54 / 40 40 50 20 10
BOYS RANCH TX 56 77 54 85 46 / 40 40 40 10 10
CANYON TX 55 75 54 83 46 / 40 30 50 10 10
CLARENDON TX 54 72 57 84 57 / 30 30 50 20 10
DALHART TX 52 72 45 84 40 / 40 40 40 5 10
GUYMON OK 54 58 52 83 49 / 40 40 40 20 10
HEREFORD TX 55 74 53 81 45 / 30 30 50 10 10
LIPSCOMB TX 54 62 58 78 57 / 40 40 50 30 20
PAMPA TX 55 70 54 79 55 / 40 40 50 20 10
SHAMROCK TX 57 70 60 79 59 / 30 30 50 20 20
WELLINGTON TX 57 76 60 82 59 / 30 30 50 20 20

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

11/05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

326 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...
STILL WATCHING NEAR TERM THUNDER CHANCES. CU FIELDS DEVELOPING
ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ROUGHLY FROM AMARILLO TO FLOYDADA
TO GUTHRIE...ALONG THE DRYLINE ABOUT 30 MILES INTO ERN NM...AND IN
AN AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW FROM CLOVIS NEWD TOWARD AMARILLO. HAVE
ALSO SEEN SOME STORMS DEVELOP ON THE SACRAMENTOS OF CENTRAL
NM...BUT THEY WILL HAVE SOME DISTANCE TO COVER BEFORE THREATENING
THE FCST AREA. UNCERTAIN HOW SUCCESSFUL ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL BE. 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED DRIER FAVORING THE SRN PANHANDLE THEN
THE NERN ZONES AS THAT ACTIVITY ROLLS SEWD. HRRR CONTINUES TO BE
RATHER DRY GENERALLY FAVORING HIGH BASED STORMS NEAR THE DRYLINE
WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME INITATION ACROSS THE SWRN PANHANDLE
SIMILAR TO THE NAM. PROBLEM WITH THE DRYLINE STORMS IS HOW MUCH
DRY AIR HAS MIXED TO THE SFC EAST OF IT WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA. BEST OBVIOUS LOW LEVEL
SUPPORT IS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST AND THE
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE DOING A DECENT JOB OF SERVING AS A
CONVERGENCE ZONE. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE LEAST FAVORED AREA BY THE
MODELS. MEANWHILE THE AREA FAVORED BY THE MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE
LITTLE GOING FOR IT. MUST ALSO NOTE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES THAT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT EWD TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THAT
FEATURE IS NOT SHUTTING OFF TSRA OVER THE NM MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT POPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST OR LOWERED IN A FEW CASES. POTENTIAL FOR SVR WILL CONTINUE
WITH WIND FAVORED IN THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE WEST AND POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL SHOULD ANY STORMS INITIATE IN THE EAST. TEND TO FAVOR THE NAM
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS REGARDING A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PRECIP POTENTIAL MAINLY
ACROSS THE WRN HALF DURING THE AFTN. HOWEVER...SEEING NEGATIVES
THERE AS WELL WITH PROGGED THICK CIRRUS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER RIDGE HAVING MIGRATED OVERHEAD...ALBEIT WEAKENING WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ATTEMPTING TO BREAK IT DOWN. PROGGED
INITATION NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE SEEMS REASONABLE ALTHOUGH
PROGGED QPF COVERAGE SEEMS A BIT MUCH INITIALLY. HAVE KEPT
PREVIOUS IDEA FAVORING THE WRN ZONES NEAR THE DRYLINE BUT TWEAKED
POPS DOWN A FRACTION.

BOTH FLAVORS OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WEDNESDAY
HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AND TO PREVIOUS FCST. NO SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER LATE WED AFTN EXPECTED TO
ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EASTWARD THRU MUCH OF THE CWFA THRU THE EVENING.
SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS BEST ACRS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF ENHANCED UPPER LIFT AND INCREASED SHEAR.
COULD STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY FORM INTO
SMALL MCS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS H85 WINDS RAMP UP TO NEAR 40KTS.
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES OUT WEST...INITIAL SVR THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WINDS. IF MCS CAN DEVELOP...SVR THREAT WILL
TRANSFORM INTO MORE OF A WIND EVENT THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

BY THURSDAY...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SFC
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EAST TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY THE
MID AFTN HOURS. STRONG SFC HEATING COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A GOOD THREAT OF SEVERE WX ONCE STORMS FORM.
THESE PARAMETERS SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

AS THE UA TROUGH CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACRS THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL DWINDLE AS THE DRYLINE
NEARS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWFA. WILL RETAIN JUST A VERY SLIGHT
MENTION OF STORMS ACRS THIS VCNTY FOR BOTH THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE TIME FRAMES.

DRY AND WINDY WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE CLOSED
H5 LOW HEADS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THEN BEGINS TO LIFT
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY. AS STATED BY PREVIOUS
SHIFT...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL JET
STREAK ADVANCES INTO WEST TEXAS AROUND BASE OF UPR TROUGH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND PERHAPS
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH LOW RH/S IN PLACE.

INCONSISTENCIES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY IN REGARD TO HOW FAST THE THE UPPER TROUGH
EJECTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO SLIP SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ARRIVAL OF FRONT ON MONDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW COOLER TEMPS FOR MON AND TUES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 74 53 80 45 / 40 50 50 10 10
TULIA 56 79 55 82 53 / 40 40 50 10 10
PLAINVIEW 57 79 56 84 54 / 50 30 50 10 10
LEVELLAND 58 78 56 82 54 / 40 40 50 10 10
LUBBOCK 59 79 59 83 57 / 40 30 50 20 20
DENVER CITY 58 79 57 84 54 / 30 40 40 10 10
BROWNFIELD 59 79 57 83 56 / 30 40 40 10 10
CHILDRESS 58 79 60 83 60 / 50 20 40 20 20
SPUR 59 81 59 83 58 / 40 20 40 20 20
ASPERMONT 60 83 62 84 62 / 30 20 40 20 20

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07/21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

1231 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.AVIATION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST. AIR MASS SHOULD BE UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED FOR
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THE FRONT/FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES. RUC IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...DRIVING A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
CONVECTION IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SO FAR THIS SOLUTION HAS LITTLE
SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY FOR
INCLUSION OF VCTS BETWEEN 23-2Z...BUT BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL STAY
SCATTERED AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED TO THE NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES.

OTHERWISE LIGHT SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME SE THIS
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT BR/HZ WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO DRY AND LOW
LEVEL JET TOO WEAK FOR MVFR CIGS...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED THAT
MENTION FROM THE TAFS.

TR.92

.UPDATE...
THICK HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT ANY FOG THAT HAD
FORMED OVERNIGHT HAS COMPLETELY ERODED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS
TREND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR FORECAST HIGHS OF
THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD FORM NEAR THE RED RIVER ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST BOTH
ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND IN THE
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE METROPLEX...AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS
AS IS FOR TONIGHT WITH THE THOUGHT THAT THE WEAK FRONT WILL
BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS OVERNIGHT. WILL ASSESS THE SITUATION IN BETTER DETAIL FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS THE LATEST MODEL DATA ARRIVES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012/

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE TWO CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. THE CLOSEST
CLUSTER...NEAR WICHITA FALLS AT 330 AM CDT...IS THE MOST LIKELY TO
AFFECT NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING
FREQUENCY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING WITHIN THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER
THE PAST 30 MINUTES...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STORMS HOLDING
TOGETHER VERY LONG ONCE MOVING INTO NORTH TX. THE SECOND CLUSTER
OF STORMS WAS LOCATED NEAR SWEETWATER AT 330 AM CDT AND THIS
CLUSTER WAS ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST. IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS
TOGETHER IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL SKIRT THE MILLS/SAN SABA
COUNTY LINE...HOLDING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND ONLY MAINTAINED 20 POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT ACTIVITY HOLDING TOGETHER AND MOVING OVER
THE CWA AFTER 12Z/7AM CDT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF THESE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION AND UPDATE THE FORECAST IF THERE
IS ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY OR TRACK OF THIS
ACTIVITY.

TODAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...THINK THAT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MAINTAINED 20 POPS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A CISCO TO DENTON TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE TO
ACCOUNT FOR SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION THIS MORNING. OVERALL A LACK
OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECLUDES MENTION OF HIGHER POPS AT
THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN THINK THAT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR NORTH TX WILL COME FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE NORTHWEST STEERING WINDS ALOFT.

MOST GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST THRU
CENTRAL OK AND INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIRMASS FROM YESTERDAY THINK THAT MODEL FORECAST
INSTABILITY IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE IS REASONABLE AND
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODE UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN GROW UPSCALE INTO A
LINEAR MCS IT WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT NORTH TX AFTER
SUNSET. AS A RESULT PLACED THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A BOWIE TO FORT WORTH TO PALESTINE LINE FOR
TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA AFTER SUNSET. BECAUSE
CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE OVER NORTH TX AFTER SUNSET...THE
BIGGEST THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DAMAGING WIND IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE AN ISOLATED THREAT UNLESS A STRONG
MCS IS ABLE TO ORGANIZE UPSTREAM.

WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
CAUSE UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TO FLATTEN OUT WHILE MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SAME TIME MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS
TROUGH...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN...IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN DRIVING SURFACE
RIDGING SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS PANS OUT...THE STRONGER SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING SOUTHEAST SHOULD CAUSE THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA TO SINK SOUTHWEST AS A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR MOVING SOUTH WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACES
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF THE FRONT. DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...THIS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW
LEVEL FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
THE FRONT. WENT AHEAD WITH SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY FIRE UP ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WEST TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH SOMEWHAT FLAT/ZONAL FLOW PROGGED TO EXIST UNDER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIDGE...EXPECT THAT ANY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD TEND TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS NORTH TX
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY WOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MOVING INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WITH WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH THIS
SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH REGARDS TO THIS CHANGE
IN LARGE SCALE FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER REGARDING THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF ENERGY (SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS) ROTATING AROUND THIS LARGE UPPER LOW THRU THE PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME THE CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS IS THAT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTHWEST OF THE CWA TO
PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE DRYLINE AND SYNOPTIC WARM/QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF NORTH TX AS WELL
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FURTHER LOWERING CONFIDENCE THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY FOCUSED LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING THE
PERIOD. RICH GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT A
STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) CAP OVER NORTH TX. WHILE THE EML
WILL HELP TO BUILD UP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY PARAMETERS...IN
THE ABSENCE OF LIFT THINK THAT THIS CAP WILL BE PROHIBITIVE FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW BEGINS
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE UNDER A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER NORTH TX FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EPISODES ACROSS THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY WHEN THE UPPER LOW PULLS
OUT OVER THE REGION ON EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WITHOUT GREAT
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR WENT AHEAD WITH BROAD
BRUSHED 30 POPS FOR THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR SATURDAY
MOST AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THE GOOD COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR MAKES
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED MCS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY EVENING. BECAUSE THIS IS MORE OF A
MESOSCALE CONCERN...BY DEFINITION CONFIDENCE IN SOMEWHAT LOW IN
EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE ON SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS SUPPORTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE OUR BEST POPS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AS A RESULT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

CAVANAUGH

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 84 63 81 59 75 / 20 30 10 30 10
WACO, TX 83 58 81 61 78 / 10 20 10 30 10
PARIS, TX 82 59 73 51 70 / 20 40 30 20 10
DENTON, TX 85 61 81 57 75 / 20 30 20 30 10
MCKINNEY, TX 84 61 79 56 75 / 20 40 20 30 10
DALLAS, TX 84 64 81 60 76 / 20 30 10 30 10
TERRELL, TX 83 61 80 57 76 / 10 30 10 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 83 61 81 60 77 / 10 20 10 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 83 58 80 62 79 / 10 10 10 20 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 85 59 82 58 78 / 20 20 10 30 10

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

304 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
DECK SUPPORTED BY WEAK INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL IN RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BACK EDGE OF VORTICITY
MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. DOWNWARD MOTION WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...BEFORE FINALLY
MIXING OUT LATE TONIGHT. MAY SEE AREA OF CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON NEAR
THE LAKE...BUT LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. WESTERN END OF ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL.

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL MIXING WILL LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING AS WELL. PRESSURE
GRADIENT THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE.

CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO 28 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT OR LOWER...SO WENT WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR GREEN LAKE
TO ROCK COUNTIES AND WEST FROM 06Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST LEFT MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR
LOWS TO REACH THAT THRESHOLD...SO LEFT THOSE AREAS OUT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT ONSHORE NEAR THE LAKE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 40S...WITH 50S INLAND PER 925MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND FROM
MINNESOTA TO MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. NAM/GFS AND 12Z CRAS ALL TAKES
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
DEPARTING NORTHWEST FLOW. ONLY THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. SOME FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER
THE NAM THEN SETS UP A SLIGHT LAND BREEZE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE NIGHT WITH A FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALL MODELS PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TAKING PRECIPITATION
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE NAM/ECMWF
IN AT BEST REACHING AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AROUND SUNRISE.
ONLY THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SHEBOYGAN AREA DRY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE OTHER MODELS BRINGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE 850 MB JET BRINGS 10C 850 MB DEWPOINTS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
GFS IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER IN PUSHING A SURFACE LOW INTO MINNESOTA
WITH THE NAM/ECMWF AND DEGEX ALL SLOWER AND WEAKER AND IS PREFERED.
ELEVATED CAPE OF AROUND 60 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF LIFTED FROM 5
THSD FT. PREFER MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT WITH LOW THUNDER POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...

.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BOTH THE 12Z GFS/06Z DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF ESTABLISH A MID/UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MODELS EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR NEW MEXICO.

THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE WEST NEAR FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX PUSHES
THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE FASTER WITH A TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW ON THE 00Z
ECMWF...REACHING FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE 12Z GFS...THAT HAS THE LOW REACHING FAR EASTERN QUEBEC. THE
06Z DGEX IS EVEN SLOWER WITH A WEAKER LOW NEAR THE IOWA/MINNESOTA
BORDER.

APPEARS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MORE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT TAF
SITES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT
MADISON...BEFORE MIXING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THEN EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME SCATTERED VFR
CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.

EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CEILINGS LINGER
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SCATTER OUT BY LATER TONIGHT.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...THOUGH
THINK MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
EASTERLY FLOW MAY PUSH THESE MORE INLAND.

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET...WITH GUSTS UP TO
27 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN VEER NORTH WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THESE
WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST TO EAST AT THE EASTERN SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES TOWARD
THE OPEN WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 02Z WEDNESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE UNTIL SUNSET...WITH THE GUSTS
SUBSIDING WITH NIGHTFALL. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES LINGER TOWARD THE OPEN
WATERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-
056-057-062-063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1210 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
351 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
351 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

LIKE THEIR PREDECESSORS...THE 10.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY
LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER THAN USUAL.

.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY
1210 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

MOISTURE NEAR 850MB WITH DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE SCT TO LOCALLY BKN STRATO-CU CLOUDS NEAR 5K
FT AND NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20KT GUSTING 20-26KTS THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PATTERN WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT/WED WITH THE SFC-
500MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST CLOSER TO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL WARMING. THE MOISTURE NEAR
850MB WILL BE PUSHED EAST TONIGHT WITH ONLY FEW/SCT 5K FT CUMULUS
EXPECTED WED...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY IN THE 6-12KT
RANGE WED AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES/DRIFTS OVER THE AREA.

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
351 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
259 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.

IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER......BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1130 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.UPDATE...BROKEN CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING...IN AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED CU RULE VALUES IN THE BROKEN
RANGE. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. OVERCAST DECK IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND BE REPLACED WITH THE BROKEN
CUMULUS AS WELL. ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF THIS IN LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL MIXING WILL LINGER AS WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 925MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...AND
WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT.

ANOTHER CLOUD DECK MAY SWEEP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING AS WELL. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AND MOVE
OVER THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT WITH ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS LOWER CLOUD AREAS IN
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR THIS AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...BROKEN VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MADISON
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVE OUT LATER TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS LINGER LATER
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 27 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN VEER NORTH WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN.
WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST TO EAST AT THE EASTERN SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN AS WELL.

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH
WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 02Z WEDNESDAY.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
SUPPORT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING
DAY...WITH THE GUSTS SUBSIDING WITH NIGHTFALL. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES
LINGER TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012/

VERY SHORT TERM....TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW
TO MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PERIODS OF MOSTLY VFR CLOUDS EXPCD TODAY AND
MOSTLY ERN AREAS TONIGHT. SCT CLOUDS MAY APPROACH 3K FEET FOR A
TIME TODAY AND IN THE EAST TNGT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NLY. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS LATER THIS MRNG AND
AFTN.

MARINE...COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MODIS IMAGERY FROM 17Z/09 MEASURED LAKE SURFACE
TEMPS 4-5C AWAY FROM THE SHALLOWER NEARSHORE WATERS...CONFIRMED BY
SOUTH LAKE BUOY TEMP. RESULTANT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE
AS WELL AS OVER THE LAKESHORE AREAS...WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO
AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVE.
WL EXTEND ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE EVE TO
ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING GUSTINESS. WINDS WL REMAIN GUSTY TNGT...BUT
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW ADVY CRITERIA.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...REM