Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/09/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LITTLE ROCK AR

1102 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TIMING HAS BEED SLOWED IN THE GRIDS. CENTRAL
ARKANSAS SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE ON TRACK AND LEFT MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AS
IS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/

AVIATION...

CONVECTION ONGOING IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. RAPID
REFRESH RUC DATA IS HANDLING THIS PRETTY WELL AND DEPICTS A NE-SW
ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEV LOPING LATER THIS
MORNING AND MOVING INTO NW ARKANSAS. GIVEN SPARSE NATURE OF
CURRENT STORMS...DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDER...BUT RATHER JUST VCTS WITH BKN060CB AS PREVAILING
CLOUD/WX COMBO. ALSO DID THIS AT KBPK...OFFSET AN HOUR OR SO. MAIN
BATCH OF CONVECTION EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND PRECIP
ALONG THE FRONT DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING. LIMITED
MENTION OF VCTS TO THE NORTHERN SITES...AND LEFT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SITES VFR WITH ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS AFTER 00Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNLESS SHOWERS MOVE OVER
TERMINAL...IN WHICH CASE MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/

SHORT RANGE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
NOT MANY VALUE ADDED CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING
AS ALL SHORT TERM MODELS GENERALLY ON THE SAME PAGE. SINCE I AM NOT
SEEING ANY COMPELLING REASON TO FAVOR ONE MODEL VERSUS ANOTHER...THE
EVER POPULAR BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.

SURFACE ANALYSIS CENTERS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES THE AXIS OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE. BOTH FEATURES EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWING
DOWN AS IT RUNS INTO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ALONG THE EASTERN
GULF COAST. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF TEXAS AND
INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH UPPER PATTERN SHARPENING UP CONSIDERABLY WITH EXPANSIVE
RIDGING GETTING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WE BEGIN WITH
UPPER TROUGHS OFF THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. LATE
WED ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THERE IS A NOTABLE
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE FINE DETAILS...MAINLY WITH WHERE THE
MODELS TAKE THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOC SFC LOW. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN TAKE THE ENERGY INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHERE AS THE
EUROPEAN BRINGS IT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PUSHES A SFC LOW
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO ARKANSAS. DUE TO THE LACK OF
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS I DID NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH AT ALL.
BUT IN GENERAL IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS...AND SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN DURING THE LONG
TERM.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 71 54 72 53 / 10 20 20 10
CAMDEN AR 77 57 76 57 / 10 30 40 20
HARRISON AR 71 53 70 52 / 20 30 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 57 74 56 / 20 30 40 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 56 74 55 / 10 20 30 20
MONTICELLO AR 78 56 77 56 / 10 20 30 20
MOUNT IDA AR 75 57 73 56 / 20 30 40 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 53 71 51 / 20 20 20 10
NEWPORT AR 72 55 72 54 / 10 20 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 76 56 75 56 / 10 20 30 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 55 72 54 / 20 30 30 20
SEARCY AR 73 55 73 54 / 10 20 20 10
STUTTGART AR 74 56 74 56 / 10 20 20 20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LITTLE ROCK AR

646 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 71 54 72 53 / 20 20 20 10
CAMDEN AR 77 57 76 57 / 10 30 40 20
HARRISON AR 71 53 70 52 / 30 30 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 57 74 56 / 20 30 40 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 56 74 55 / 20 20 30 20
MONTICELLO AR 78 56 77 56 / 10 20 30 20
MOUNT IDA AR 75 57 73 56 / 20 30 40 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 53 71 51 / 20 20 20 10
NEWPORT AR 72 55 72 54 / 20 20 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 76 56 75 56 / 10 20 30 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 55 72 54 / 20 30 30 20
SEARCY AR 73 55 73 54 / 20 20 20 10
STUTTGART AR 74 56 74 56 / 10 20 20 20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...64

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA

1023 AM PDT SAT APR 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL WARMING TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

.DISCUSSION...
OUR FINAL MORNING TEMPERATURE REPORT ISN`T AVAILABLE YET BUT A
CURSORY VIEW SHOWS SEVERAL EAST VALLEY SPOTS FELL BELOW THE 32
DEGREE MARK THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY TODAY WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTH VALLEY.
THE LATEST RUC SOUNDING SHOWS FAIRLY ROBUST DOWNSLOPING AT KBFL
TODAY. OUR CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MAX
TEMP FORECAST SO NOW CHANGES EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OUR ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEMS LATER THIS
WEEK. BOTH FEATURE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ALTHOUGH THE FIRST
STORM...SLATED FOR TUE NGT INTO WED...IS FILLING IN AS IT
APPROACHES INTERIOR CALIFORNIA. WILL BE CONSIDERING OUR POPS AND
TIMING FOR THESE STORMS ALONG WITH THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM PDT SAT APR 7 2012/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY RUNNING A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER THAN 24 HRS AGO...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING DRY AND COOL
AIR IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING AGAIN
IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE
COOL START TO THE MORNING...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM TO AS MUCH AS 6-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
MONDAY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SWINGING THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
INLAND BEGINNING TUESDAY...BEGINNING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN AND
SPREADING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA....MAINLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY NOTABLE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN
IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT...PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM ASHORE AND BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1258 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND JUST UPDATING FOR CLOUDS MOVING
IN A BIT QUICKER FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF I-55.
MILDER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ON EASTER
SUNDAY. BREEZY SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH OVER
CENTRAL IL AND LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS OF 7 TO 14 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST IL.

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO AND LAKE HURON WAS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OF IL WHILE 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG CANADA HAD A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER WESTERN
IA AND EASTERN KS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE WEST OF
IL AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND DIMINISHING DURING THE MORNING
WITH LOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. 12Z MODELS BRING COLD FRONT EAST
INTO FAR WESTERN IL BY 00Z/7 PM AND INTO EASTERN IL BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL DURING THIS EVENING.

HUETTL

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

VFR CONDTIONS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
TERMINAL AIRPORTS THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL
MN INTO WESTERN IA...NW MO AND SE KS WILL APPROACH THE IL RIVER BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO EASTERN IL BY MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER CENTRAL
IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
THIS FAR NORTH SO SHOWER COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS
LIMITED TOO. WILL CONTINUE VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR ABOUT A FOUR HOUR
WINDOW WITH CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO 3-4K FT. CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO WORK ITS WAY EAST OVER CENTRAL IL DURING
OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN SW...AND THEN TURN NW
8-13 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE
MO VALLEY BY 18Z/SUNDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO CENTRAL IL
EASTERN SUNDAY.

HUETTL

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST SLOWLY THIS MORNING...AND WINDS
STARTING TO GET A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT EARLY AFTER AN EVENING OF
RATHER LIGHT TO CALM WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEXT WAVE BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WILL BE THE
FIRST ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST. BEYOND THAT...FORECAST IS RATHER QUIET
AND A MATTER OF TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST UNTIL LATE DAY 6. 00Z MODEL
RUNS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THRU WEDNESDAY...HINTING AT MORE
OF A CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPING UP TODAY AND USHERING IN SOME WARMER AIR
AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...AT LEAST BRIEFLY. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER WAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR AND 4KM WRF STILL HINTING AT A BIT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...ALTHOUGH BREAKING UP AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BEST CHANCES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FRONT PROVES TO BE MORE OF A WIND SHIFT AND
A PRECIP CHANCE THAN AN ACTUAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR...AS TOMORROWS
HIGHS LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS...NOT A BIG AIRMASS CHANGE AT
ALL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND A BIT COOLER AS THE COOLER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE ACTUALLY ARRIVES. REGION REMAINS
UNDER A NWRLY FLOW...WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING IN
THE PLAINS STATES. BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
LATE THURSDAY-FRI NIGHT IS A BIT OF CONUNDRUM FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE MODELS...AND DISCREPANCIES BTWN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF IS
RESULTING IN A SPREAD OUT TIME FRAME FOR POPS IN THE ALLBLEND. HAVE
TRIED TO BE CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT UNTIL ONE OR BOTH OF THE MODELS
CLEANS UP A BIT. FOR NOW...CHC POPS THUR NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT.
EXPECT A FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS POINT WITH THE PATTERN
SHIFT WORKING OUT A FEW KINKS.

HJS

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1045 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

HUETTL

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONT IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS IN THE
02Z-06Z SUN TIMEFRAME...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. ANY
THUNDER LOOKS TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT.

04
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

HJS

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

615 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

04
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

337 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST SLOWLY THIS MORNING...AND WINDS
STARTING TO GET A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT EARLY AFTER AN EVENING OF
RATHER LIGHT TO CALM WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEXT WAVE BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WILL BE
THE FIRST ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST. BEYOND THAT...FORECAST IS RATHER
QUIET AND A MATTER OF TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST UNTIL LATE DAY 6.
00Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THRU
WEDNESDAY...HINTING AT MORE OF A CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPING UP TODAY AND USHERING IN SOME WARMER
AIR AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER
WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR AND 4KM WRF STILL HINTING AT A
BIT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...ALTHOUGH BREAKING
UP AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BEST CHANCES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FRONT PROVES TO BE MORE OF A WIND SHIFT
AND A PRECIP CHANCE THAN AN ACTUAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR...AS
TOMORROWS HIGHS LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS...NOT A BIG AIRMASS
CHANGE AT ALL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND A BIT COOLER AS THE COOLER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE ACTUALLY ARRIVES. REGION
REMAINS UNDER A NWRLY FLOW...WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PERSISTING IN THE PLAINS STATES. BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY-FRI NIGHT IS A BIT OF CONUNDRUM FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODELS...AND DISCREPANCIES BTWN THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF IS RESULTING IN A SPREAD OUT TIME FRAME FOR POPS IN
THE ALLBLEND. HAVE TRIED TO BE CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT UNTIL ONE OR
BOTH OF THE MODELS CLEANS UP A BIT. FOR NOW...CHC POPS THUR NIGHT
THRU FRI NIGHT. EXPECT A FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS POINT
WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT WORKING OUT A FEW KINKS.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1143 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME. THIS QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE COURTESY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED
DRY AIRMASS. LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL VFR...WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
IN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES/MOVES THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION RISK WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE APPEARS TO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TREND SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...AND WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

BAK
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1143 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE DOMINANT VFR CATEGORY. VISIBILITY AND CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY GOOD THROUGH TOMORROW. THE OPAQUE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FT AGL...WILL BECOME CLEAR AND REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH TOMORROW BEGINNING AROUND 02Z. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY TODAY...SUSTAINED AROUND 12 KTS...GUSTING TO NEAR 20 AT
TIMES...TONIGHT...A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KTS IS
EXPECTED. TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KTS
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ..ERVIN..

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS BEING PUSHED
EASTWARD BY A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
RESULTING IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NE. LOW CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WESTERN IOWA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
00Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
SWEEPING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED TO REACH .75-1.00 INCH
THIS AFTERNOON...A LACK OF FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT QPF. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...AND LITTLE IF ANY CAPE IS AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDER. TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT MAXES TO THE EAST SHOULD REACH NEAR
YESTERDAY`S READINGS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AS WILL THE
CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 30S...BUT NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP DURING THE NIGHT AND LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FROST
WILL BE AN ISSUE...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. WOLF

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
FROST/FREEZE RISK FOR POSSIBLY SEVERAL LATE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS
EARLY TO MID WEEK REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

OVERALL... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES BETWEEN DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
QUEBEC. TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD AND BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK
WITH SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. COUPLE OF DEEP MIXING DAYS
(ROUGHLY 700-775 MILLIBARS) SUN-MON DEPICTED BY GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTS HIGHS NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE... A TREND
OF LATE. WINDS MAY NEED TO BUMPED UP A BIT AS WELL BOTH DAYS WITH
AT LEAST BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY 20-25 KTS
SHOWN THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AND 30-35+ KTS SITTING ATOP. ADJUSTED
DEWPTS DOWN ESPECIALLY BOTH AFTNS IN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD 20S WITH POSSIBLY FEW TEENS. DRY AIR WILL
ALSO AID IN WIDENING DIURNAL RANGE... WITH NEAR TO JUST BELOW COLDEST
GUIDANCE ON LOWS. SOME FROST POSSIBLE LATE MON NGT-EARLY TUE AM... BUT
LIKELY PATCHY AT BEST AND MAINLY IN SHELTERED OR LOW-LYING LOCATIONS AS
MODELS STILL SHOWING SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW OVER QUEBEC
AND HIGH BUILDING SWD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA TO KEEP BL
MIXED WITH 5-10 KT WINDS. COLDEST PERIOD WITH GREATEST FROST AND FREEZE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE TUE NGT-EARLY WED AM WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
IN ALLOWING FOR BL DECOUPLING. MIN TEMP TECHNIQUE USING PROGGED 850
MILLIBAR TEMPS AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
MID AND UPPER 20S FOR LOWS EARLY WED AM... AND IF WINDS WERE TO GO CALM
FOR ANY DURATION THEN LOWER 20S WOULD BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY SHELTERED AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

CHALLENGE LATE WEEK IS PCPN CHCS/TIMING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE FROM PACIFIC
TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL CONUS... WITH MAIN ISSUE OF TIMING. GFS REMAINS
FASTER AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL RUNS VIA DPROG/DT... AND
WOULD SUPPORT RAIN OVERSPREADING REGION THURS IN WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MEANWHILE... HI-RES ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER PAST FEW RUNS AS IT IS
STRONGER WITH DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR WHICH HOLDS PCPN
AT BAY TO OUR WEST UNTIL FRI. UKMET IS CLOSER TO GFS AT 144 HRS WHICH
AGREES WITH INHERITED FCST AND ALSO INITIALIZED POP GRIDS WITH POPS (SLIGHT
CHC-CHC) SHOWN TO OVERSPREAD CWA THURS AND LINGER INTO FRI. WOULDNT RULE
OUT SOME SLOWING OF SYSTEM THOUGH DUE TO DRY EASTERLY FETCH FROM BENEATH
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. MCCLURE

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

654 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN NE PRECEDED BY BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THEY MOVE
PAST AREA TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH CEILINGS
MAY DROP TO MVFR WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OCCUR. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD EXIT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY VFR CLEAR
CONDITIONS. WOLF

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
FROST/FREEZE RISK FOR POSSIBLY SEVERAL LATE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS
EARLY TO MID WEEK REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

AVIATION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012/

VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/07 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOIS FROM IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN WITH
SCATTERED -SHRA FROM MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES 4-10K AGL. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL DOES
EXIST FOR A PERIOD OF HIGHER END MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 06Z/08 AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH MODERATE NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND GUSTY. ..NICHOLS..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

WOLF/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

328 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS BEING PUSHED
EASTWARD BY A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
RESULTING IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NE. LOW CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WESTERN IOWA.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
00Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
SWEEPING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED TO REACH .75-1.00 INCH
THIS AFTERNOON...A LACK OF FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT QPF. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...AND LITTLE IF ANY CAPE IS AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDER. TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT MAXES TO THE EAST SHOULD REACH NEAR
YESTERDAY`S READINGS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
FROST/FREEZE RISK FOR POSSIBLY SEVERAL LATE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS
EARLY TO MID WEEK REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012/

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

WOLF/12/WDN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1044 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 5-7 DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING UNDER
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAIN SUPPORTS
ADDING A MENTION OF FOG TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AFTER 09-10Z. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS.

MWM

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

WIDESPREAD VFR MAY GIVE WAY TO TRANSIENT MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR IN LOW
CIGS/BR-FG ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AFTER 09-11Z WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES AND STRONG DECOUPLING ANTICIPATED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SFC HIGH.

MWM

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE THERE
IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR TRANSIENT MVFR WITH PATCHY FOG WITHIN
REGION OF LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG DECOUPLING MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF COUNTIES AFTER 10Z INCLUDING
KICT/KHUT AND KCNU.

MWM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL DRAG A WEAK COOL FRONT/WIND SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE
HEARTLAND TONIGHT...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK MONDAY.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN CONCERT
WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. LOCATION OF
BOUNDARY WILL BE KEY. AM TENDING TO SIDE WITH THE NAM`S FURTHER
NORTH LOCATION GIVEN THE NAM`S TENDENCY FOR ACCURACY WITHIN THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. THAT SAID...BETTER CHANCES WILL BE OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH AM SUSPECTING THE
GREATEST OVERALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FROM SOUTHWEST KS THROUGH WESTERN OK...ALONG ZONE OF BEST
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE. AMPLE DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL/SPEED
SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST...THINKING BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY GETTING INTO
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS 800-600MB THETA-E ADVECTION COMMENCES IN RESPONSE TO
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING BEGINNING TO EJECT NORTHEAST. THINKING
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LEAD WAVE.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PERIODIC BOUTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS PERIODIC SHORTWAVES EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPECIFICS REGARDING
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED
COVERAGE...PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF RESULTANT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
YET TO BE PINNED DOWN GIVEN CONTINUED POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. VARIOUS
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WOULD SUGGEST THERE
IS A THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS ANYTIME FROM
THURSDAY-SUNDAY. DESPITE THIS DISPARITY...THE DEGREE OF FORECASTED
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS...AS SPECIFICS WILL BECOME CLEARER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ADK

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AS A WEAK TROF DROPS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING.
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THOUGH WILL
INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KICT/KHUT AND KCNU.

KED

FIRE WEATHER...

PERSISTENT MODEST EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH PERIODIC LOW TO MODEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...AS VARIOUS
DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO A FASTER THAN NORMAL SPRING
GREEN UP.

ADK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 47 71 46 68 / 0 30 30 10
HUTCHINSON 47 71 45 67 / 0 20 20 10
NEWTON 46 71 45 67 / 0 10 10 0
ELDORADO 47 71 45 68 / 0 10 20 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 48 71 47 69 / 0 30 40 10
RUSSELL 42 71 42 66 / 0 10 10 0
GREAT BEND 45 71 44 66 / 0 20 10 10
SALINA 42 71 42 67 / 0 10 10 0
MCPHERSON 45 71 44 67 / 0 10 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 46 72 47 69 / 0 10 20 0
CHANUTE 43 70 44 67 / 0 10 10 0
IOLA 43 69 44 66 / 0 10 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 45 71 46 68 / 0 10 10 0

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1200 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 18Z TAFS...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING. MSAS IS SHOWING 3 TO 5 MB PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE IS WINDS JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE
WINDS WILL GET STRONGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS IN THE GRIDS AND ISSUE A NOW TO ALERT DRIVERS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

TODAY:
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS WIND SPEED STRENGTH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE OF THE LATEST RUC13 AND
NAM12 SOLUTIONS...SHOULD BE SEEING 23 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND
ISALLOBARIC/PRESSURE RISES. THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES. AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...NOTHING
WAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HAVE
INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CIRRUS THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT:
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL CLEARLY BE TEMPERATURES. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ANTICIPATED. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS LINE...CLEAR SKIES...AND WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL DOWN INTO THE 32 TO 35F RANGE WITH EASE...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY TO GET
THE WORD OUT FOR AGRICULTURE/NURSERY INTERESTS GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY
EARLY GREEN-UP WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR. SKIN TEMPERATURES COULD GET
DOWN TO 30 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS NORTHWEST OF A HUGOTON-GARDEN
CITY-WAKEENEY LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL COMMENCE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS BY MONDAY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP SUNDAY NIGHT BY CLOUDS AND THEN HELD
DOWN ON MONDAY BY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN. BY TUESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH DEEP
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BY TUESDAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS LOW TO
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, ALONG WITH LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE
GIVEN A STABLY STRATIFIED LOWER TROPOSPHERE.

BY WEDNESDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER
THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW FOR LOW-LEVEL WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION. OTHERWISE, THE
STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES,
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL RELOAD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSE BY, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE. IN
FACT, THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL ALL BE NEARLY IDEAL FOR OUTBREAKS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE, GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL A
WEEK AWAY, IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE IN THE PLAINS THE
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE CONCENTRATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
EVEN DURING THE PERIODS WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS ARE SUPPRESSED TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD
BE HELD UP FOR THE SAME REASONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BUT
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 12 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS. VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM CLOUDS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 34 71 50 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 63 33 71 47 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 63 34 72 50 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 65 35 71 52 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 64 35 71 45 / 10 0 0 0
P28 68 39 69 50 / 20 0 0 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1046 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING. MSAS IS SHOWING 3 TO 5 MB PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE IS WINDS JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE
WINDS WILL GET STRONGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS IN THE GRIDS AND ISSUE A NOW TO ALERT DRIVERS
OF BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. CIGS AOA
050 WILL BECOME UNLIMITED AFTER 14Z AT DDC/GCK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 34 71 50 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 63 33 71 47 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 63 34 72 50 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 65 35 71 52 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 64 35 71 45 / 10 0 0 0
P28 68 39 69 50 / 20 0 0 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1036 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING. MSAS IS SHOWING 3 TO 5 MB PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE IS WINDS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE
WINDS WILL GET STRONGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS IN THE GRIDS AND ISSUE A NOW TO ALERT DRIVERS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 34 71 50 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 63 33 71 47 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 63 34 72 50 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 65 35 71 52 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 64 35 71 45 / 10 0 0 0
P28 68 39 69 50 / 20 0 0 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

649 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

A FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN DAKOTAS PER WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS AS OF
07Z. THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE TIED TO THIS STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. AS 0730Z THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR TRIBUNE NORTHEAST THROUGH WAKEENEY TO NEAR
CONCORDIA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINED UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE
TIME OF DAY GIVEN EARLY APRIL STANDARDS WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID
50S STILL BEING OBSERVED AS OF 07Z. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRIFORM) PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES
RATHER WARM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF
THIS CIRRIFORM CLOUD WAS ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 34 71 50 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 63 33 71 47 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 63 34 72 50 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 65 35 71 52 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 64 35 71 45 / 10 0 0 0
P28 68 39 69 50 / 20 0 0 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

420 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

STRATUS WITH CEILING OF 1000 TO 2000 FEET WAS EXPANDING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS OF 06Z AND WILL AFFECT GCK, DDC, AND HYS TERMINALS
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES. WILL INCLUDE A 3 HOUR TEMPO GROUP
FROM ROUGHLY 08-11Z FOR IFR CONDITIONS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHEN WINDS GO LIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW VISIBILITY TO FALL BELOW 3
MILES AND/OR CEILING TO DROP TO 500-900 FEET. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CEILINGS DEPARTING AND
VFR CONDITIONS TAKING OVER. WILL KEEP THE VCTS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AT HYS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS MATERIALIZING OVER HYS IS NOT
ALL THAT HIGH WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING EAST OF
HYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 34 71 50 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 63 33 71 47 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 63 34 72 50 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 65 35 71 52 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 64 35 71 45 / 10 0 0 0
P28 68 39 69 50 / 20 0 0 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1235 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012

A SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES ON THIS MORNING`S 12 UTC OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED ALOFT AS THE
UPPER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SLOWLY GIVES WAY TO THE
ADVANCING TOUGH TOWARD THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS CLOUD COVER ENCOMPASSED ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AND THE 12 UTC
KDDC SOUNDING INDICATED A 5.5 KFT THICK CLOUD LAYER. THIS CLOUD
LAYER WAS ONLY BEGINNING TO SHOW SLIGHT SIGNS OF ERODING NEAR THE
COLORADO STATE LINE BY MIDDLE AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012

IMMEDIATELY FOR TONIGHT, THE STABLE LAYER WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE
HIRES-ARW AND LOCAL HRRR MODELS BOTH DEVELOP ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE, WHILE THE HIRES-NMM PRODUCES NOTHING ALONG THIS DRYLINE
FEATURE THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE`D EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF
CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT, AS THE NAM BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INDICATE LOWER VALUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM MONTANA INTO WYOMING WILL BE THE
BOUNDARY THAT IS DRIVEN THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER, THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE NAM MODEL DUE TO THE PRESENT SHALLOW THETA-E
AXIS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG, IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR A FEW STOUT UPDRAFTS AND BRIEF SMALL HAILCORES
THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ROUGHLY EAST
OF A SCOTT CITY TO MINNEOLA AND ASHLAND LINE. ONCE THE BOUNDARY
SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA DEEP DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO ALLOW FULL
SUN FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THE DAYTIME WILL
FAIRLY BREEZY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH AROUND 18Z
BEFORE AN ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES, EASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLACKENING
WINDS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TEMPER THE SURFACE HEATING,
RELEGATING GENERALLY TO THE LOW AND MID 60`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012

ON THE NEAR SIDE OF THE 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE NOW
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OVERRIDING CONDITIONS OF THE FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, I ADDED A FEW LOWER END POPS
TO THE MONDAY PERIOD, WHICH WERE NOT PREVIOUSLY IN THERE. WILL
BRING IN 20 POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN 1 TO 2 TIER OF COUNTIES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, AND THEN CONCENTRATE 20 POPS NORTH AND 30 POPS SOUTH
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVER RUNNING
WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SLIGHT STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE, INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE NEAR A JOHNSON
CITY TO DODGE CITY TO PRATT LINE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
WANDER NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO JUST WEST OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE 50 TO 55
PERCENT RANGE WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT REDUCE TO 40 PERCENT. BY FRIDAY,
THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY IN OUR WEST AND PARTLY CLOUDY IN OUR
EASTERN CWA. THROUGH THE MONDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD, SOME SPOTS MAY
RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 0.66 INCH OF RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN 2
TIER OF COUNTIES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SUNDAY MORNING IS THE MOST INTERESTING AND
CHALLENGING. USING THE LOW END VALUES OF THE MINXXX (GCK, DDC, ETC)
GUIDANCE TO POPULATE THE SAT NT/SUN MORN MIN T`S, AND THE RESULT WAS
AS COLD AS 32F AT SCOTT CITY, 34F NORTHWEST OF A DIGHTON TO JOHNSON
CITY LINE, AND AROUND 35F OR BELOW NORTHWEST OF A HAYS TO SUBLETTE
TO NEAR HUGOTON LINE. AT FIRST, I LEANED TOWARD A FROST ADVISORY
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST TIER OF COUNTIES, BUT DECIDED TO USE A MORE
GRADUAL APPROACH, AND INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO REFLECT THIS AS WELL.
MINS SHOULD INCREASE AS SOON AS MON MORNING SINCE THE WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE CLOSER, THE OVER RUNNING CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE AREA, AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WARM, MOIST AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN OUR NORTH TO NEAR 50F DEGREES IN
OUR SOUTH. MINS WILL BE SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
COOL A BIT INTO THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SE BY
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION, WITH SUNDAY STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S, WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT, AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. THE FRONT COULD BE NUDGING FARTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY,
WITH RESULTANT MAX TEMPS RESPONDING LIKEWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE MID 60S IN OUR NORTHEAST
SECTIONS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A LITTLE COOL AIR RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH, WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 70F DEGREES
IN OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE MID 60S IN OUR NORTHEAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 36 68 47 72 / 0 0 20 30
GCK 34 71 47 71 / 0 0 20 20
EHA 37 72 48 75 / 0 0 20 20
LBL 37 71 49 75 / 0 0 30 30
HYS 35 68 45 69 / 0 0 10 10
P28 39 69 49 73 / 0 10 30 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1105 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012

COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING IT RECENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WRAY AREA. WRAY AWOS
INDICATED PEAK WINDS AT 45 MPH AS IT PASSED...BUT SO FAR IT
APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING THERE AND WANT TO
GET A FEEL FOR HOW LONG WINDS WILL LAST BEFORE CONSIDERING A NEW
ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS BEHIND FRONT...STARTING TO SEE
SOME FOG AND MVFR/IFR STRATUS DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT IN AREA OF
CLEARING AND HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

FOR THUNDER CHANCES...WITH EXCEPTION OF RECENT RUN OF HRRR MODELS
NOT REALLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND GIVEN OBSERVED INVERSION ALOFT AND EXPECTED CINH VALUES IT
WILL BE TOUGH TO INITIATE AND MAINTAIN A STORM TONIGHT. SO
FAR...PRECIP HAS STRUGGLED TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WARM/DRY H7 THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS AND THINK THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CAP TO WEAKEN BTWN
06-09Z ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST SO WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENT CHANCES
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ALSO BASED ON LATEST DATA HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACROSS CWA TOMORROW
AND LOWERED TDS AS MUCH DRIER AIR NOTED BEHIND FRONT. STARTING TO
GET CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS TOMORROW...BUT
WILL WAIT TO GET FULL SUITE OF 00Z DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 445 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012

DRYLINE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST...WITH TDS IN SEVERAL
AREAS FALLING 30+ DEGREES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA...A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A SHORT WHILE WEST OF A YUMA TO FIRSTVIEW LINE. ALSO
SEEING A LARGE PLUME OF DUST BEHIND DRYLINE STARTING TO NEAR THE
WESTERN CWA. WITH DRYLINE EXPECTED TO RETREAT SOME IN THE EARLY
EVENING AND RECENT RAINFALL...THINK THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO
SHORT LIVED AND ISOLATED TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT HAVE
UPDATED ALL FIRE PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.
VISIBILITIES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT LOW IN DUST PLUME AS CWA IS
PRETTY FAR FROM SOURCE REGION AND DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE A
LARGE SENSIBLE IMPACT ON AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012

COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
STARTING AROUND 01Z IN YUMA COUNTY AND CLEARING ALL COUNTIES BY 08Z.
12Z NAM SHOWS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OF 500 J/KG AND ELEVATED
CAPE TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z.

NAM ALSO SHOWS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 5-7 MB BEHIND COLD FRONT SO A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TRAIL BEHIND FRONT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE RUNNING 25-35 KNOTS...SO HAVE HOISTED A
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

FAIRLY DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM 6 TO 9 DEGREES C
WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY IN THE
MORNING TO AROUND 25 MPH BUT WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FACT THE MOST OF THE REGION RECEIVED 1.50
INCHES OF RAIN IN RECENT DAYS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP...DO NOT
FEEL THE NEED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST/SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO TO WICHITA COUNTY KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO DUE TO LACK OF MUCH UPPER AIR
ASCENT AND LOW BOUNDARY LEVEL DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...WILL PLACE
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S SUNDAY
MORNING...SO BRIEFLY CONSIDERED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE
ADVISORY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING/CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...TO
HELP PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO LOW. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED...HOWEVER.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
DIFFER IN THE LOCATION OF 500 MB FEATURES. RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY WHILE SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD
FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS
LOOK GOOD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS
MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE 500 MB LOW BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IN FACT...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500 MB LOW OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE GFS SWEEPS
PRECIPITATION EAST BY THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
GOING DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN SITUATION. THE NEXT LOW DEEPENS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY WHICH PLACES THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012

COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH BOTH TERMINAL LOCATIONS WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND SMALL AREA OF LOW MVFR TO IFR
STRATUS IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
TRYING TO DEVELOP AS WELL. COVERAGE LOOKS TO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AND WITH FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH ANY THREAT WOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. LIKEWISE LINGERING STRATUS LOOKS TO BE CLEARING
RAPIDLY BEHIND FRONT SO HAVE DOUBTS THAT IT WILL LINGER MUCH PAST
06Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL QUICKLY
PICK UP TO 20 TO 25KTS DURING THE MORNING.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1012 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

.UPDATE...
WK AND DIFFUSE CD FNT SAGGING TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR...MARKED BY
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LT NLY WINDS ACRS CNTL LA COMPARED
TO SRN LA. A CLUSTER OF WHAT IS NOW JUST SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO E CNTL TX. THIS CLUSTER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS SKIRT THE FAR NW/N ZONES LATE THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLT CHC FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT RESIDUAL MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVER THE SRN/COASTAL ZONES. WK
FNTL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING...AND THE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS THOUGH
WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES...MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND WIND GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS FINE...WITH UPDATES ALREADY SENT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ARKANSAS RIDGES SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. A STATIONARY COLD FRONT...EXTENDING THROUGH
DALLAS THROUGH ALEXANDRIA...MARKS THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE DOME.

THE ARKANSAS DOME WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...PUSHING STALLED COLD FRONT TO THE COAST.

RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT...AND REMAIN PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED...DUE TO PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY COOL FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS AS WELL. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE DRIER AIRMASS
CURRENTLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOUND
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS.

DISCUSSION...FORECAST WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH
SOME SREF AND GFS INCORPORATED TO SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE COOL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...SHOULD GIVE THE
FRONT A LITTLE MORE PUSH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES AS THIS WILL BE JUST
PAST MAX HEATING AND THIS AREA HAS THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE COLUMN. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW CINH
CONTINUING TO ERODE AS WELL.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETUP
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE AREA WILL
BRING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. THE MOSTLY LIKELY DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH CASES LIKE THIS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES DESPITE THE WEAK FLOW REGIME. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL STILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE QUITE
WARM AS A DEEPENING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO RISE
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE...HOWEVER MOST
WILL BE DRY.

MARINE...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
DRY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 62 82 62 82 / 10 20 10 40
KBPT 60 81 62 82 / 10 20 20 30
KAEX 57 81 59 80 / 20 20 10 50
KLFT 60 82 62 81 / 10 20 10 40

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

618 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ARKANSAS RIDGES SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. A STATIONARY COLD FRONT...EXTENDING THROUGH
DALLAS THROUGH ALEXANDRIA...MARKS THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE DOME.

THE ARKANSAS DOME WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...PUSHING STALLED COLD FRONT TO THE COAST.

RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT...AND REMAIN PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED...DUE TO PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH
SOME SREF AND GFS INCORPORATED TO SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL STILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 62 82 62 82 61 / 10 20 10 40 30
KBPT 60 81 62 82 60 / 10 20 20 30 20
KAEX 57 81 59 80 57 / 10 20 10 50 30
KLFT 60 82 61 81 60 / 10 20 10 40 30

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1142 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL KEEP DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WINDS HAVE COME DOWN AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND
RH/S RISING SO LET THE RED FLAG WARNING GO. HOWEVER...LATE
AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL SUGGEST A WIND SURGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANINED BY LOWERING DEW POINTS AND WIND GUSTS
20-25 MPH. ALONG RIDGE TOPS...WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH. PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL/NE MD STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE MID-20S MPH RANGE.

WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND LACK OF DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS PAST FEW NIGHTS. NUDGED TEMPS/DEW PTS TO USE 3KM
HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 20-22Z.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH BLUSTERY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. RECENT LACK OF RAIN...AND THE
OVERALL DRY AIR MASS...WITH DEW POINTS JUST ABOUT WHAT THEY WERE
TODAY...WILL SPELL RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF CWA.
SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST A LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS DURING MID
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EAST TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. FRANKLY GIVEN
THE RECENT TRENDS AND LACK OF MOISTURE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT OF ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE WOULD BE ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA.
FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS.

PREVIOUS SHORT/LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOW...

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A 115KT JETSTREAM DRIVES SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO A COLD AND DEEP
(500MB TEMPERATURES AT 500MB -31C AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES 528 DM)
UPPER LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE NAM-12 HAS 50KT WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60 DEGREES IN THE DC /
BALTIMORE METRO AREAS. A BAND OF RAIN ALONG THE FRONT MAY DROP A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY WILL MOSTLY BE DRY EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER. THE GFS DROPS
THE NEXT WAVE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA...LEAVING US UNDER BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATING RAINFALL...AND COOL TEMPERATURES
THE 50S. THE NAM IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH THE WAVE BUT IN
EITHER EVENT WE`LL HAVE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE COUNTRY (AND
WELL UP INTO CANADA) FLATTENS AND PROGRESSES INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ESRL EXPERIMENTAL 6-10 DAY RE-ANALYSIS
FORECASTS SUPPORT THIS WITH POSITIVE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
STRETCHING FROM FLORIDA TO PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14C...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE 70S AT LEAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL TRENDS ARE LIKELY TO BE WARMER AND
DRIER IN THE COMING DAYS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HUNG ON TO A CHANCE OF
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED DOWN THIS EVENING...EXCEPT BWI/MTN...AND EXPECT
THEM TO DROP SHORTLY. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 14Z/09TH. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS. A PERIOD OF MVFR -RA BR MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO SUNRISE TUESDAY. VFR DEVELOPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY N SFC WINDS. CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FROM THESE BY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS TONIGHT. A
PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL BE MORE MARGINAL ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF 20 KNOT WIND GUSTS
UPSTREAM LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...ALL THE WATERS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED.

WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. GUSTS WILL APPROACH
30KT AND PEAK NEAR GALE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE BAY/TP LATER TMRW EVE...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU DURING THE LATE EVE HRS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. LESS WIND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE RECEIVED NEARLY HALF DOZEN REPORTS OF WILDFIRES AND LARGE
BRUSH FIRES ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...MOST NOTABLE WAS A 20
ACRE FIRE ON THE ROCKINGHAM-PAGE BOUNDARY JUST NORTHWEST OF CITY
OF SHENANDOAH.

EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...AND HAVE CONVERTED MOST OF
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST AREAS.
HAVE KEPT A FIRE WATCH FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINA...AS POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE MIGHT MITIGATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

AVOID ANY OPEN BURNING ON MONDAY IN ALL AREAS. CONDITIONS ARE JUST
TOO DRY AND WINDS TOO GUSTY.

SOME WETTING RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ALONG A
FRONTAL BAND. FUEL MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT. THEY WILL LOWER
FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...LESS WIND IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>007-
009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
WV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SMZ
NEAR TERM...SMZ
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...SDG
AVIATION...SMZ
MARINE...SMZ
FIRE WEATHER...SMZ/SDG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

936 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND LACK OF DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS PAST FEW NIGHTS. NUDGED TEMPS/DEW PTS TO USE 3KM
HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 20-22Z.

PREVIOUS SHORT/LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOW...

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED DOWN THIS EVENING...EXCEPT BWI/MTN...AND EXPECT
THEM TO DROP SHORTLY. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 14Z/09TH. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.

.MARINE...
STILL GETTING SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ON THE BAY...BUT NOT ATTM ON
THE TIDAL POTOMAC. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED ABOUT A WIND SURGE THAT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE SCA GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT.

AVOID ANY OPEN BURNING ON MONDAY IN ALL AREAS. CONDITIONS ARE JUST
TOO DRY AND WINDS TOO GUSTY.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>007-
009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
WV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ531>534-536-
537-539>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
535-538.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SMZ
NEAR TERM...SMZ
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...SDG
AVIATION...SMZ/SDG
MARINE...SMZ/SDG
FIRE WEATHER...SMZ/SDG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

245 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
WEST AND SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. CURRENTLY A LARGE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH OUR CWA ON THE WESTERN FRINGES. RUC ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WERE INHIBITING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
OVER OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT. OUR DRY AIRMASS
WITH A PW OF A HALF INCH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING LEADING
TO TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR NORMAL AROUND 50 DEGREES AT MOST
SITES. SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A CYCLONE SPINNING
OVER MANITOBA WILL HELP DROP A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE MORNING AND INTO OUR CWA BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME CONVECTION NOTED ALONG IT. MODELS AGREE THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS OUR
CWA. MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PWS BARELY POOLING TO AN INCH. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP
OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS
AGREE THAT MOST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THE WEST WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN. WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE DELTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 1023MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE COOLER TREND OF NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...COOL SPOT BEING THE NE WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/UKMET SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
COMBINE FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THE NAM AND ECMWF
PLACE THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND SHOW NO DEVELOPMENT.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SO FOR
NOW HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MONDAY AFTN AND FOLLOW A DRIER TREND. ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER IN THE
WEST MAY HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST BUT
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY...THIS TIME ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL MOISTURE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING IS INDICATED
AS HIGHER PRESSURE AND NLY FLOW CONTINUE AT LOWER LEVELS BUT THE
REMNANTS OF A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE SUGGESTED. ONCE AGAIN
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
WRN/SRN ZONES.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE DURING THE DAY WED BUT WITH
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE EURO...BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY RIDGING A BIT
OVER THE AREA WED...HAVE CUT MEX MOS POPS FOR TUE NGT...WED AND WED
NIGHT TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL RUN TO RUN DISCREPANCIES STAND OUT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
PERIOD. BY THU THE GFS GENERALLY MAINTAINS MID/UPPER RIDGING WITH
POSSIBLE WAVES PUSHING THROUGH AS LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PREV RUN OF
THE EURO EDGED A HEALTHY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION THU WITH A STRONG SYSTEM APPROACHING THE ARKLAMISS REGION
FRIDAY. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE EURO HOWEVER HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
THE GFS SOLUTION...MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES BUT HOLDING ON TO
RIDGING OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND PIVOTING THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO
OUR NW. WILL FOLLOW MEX MOS FOR NOW WHICH PAINTS AREAS OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /03/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME SHALLOW GROUND
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE AERODROME AROUND DAY BREAK
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY RESULTING IN A
DEGRADATION OF FLIGHT CATEGORY ISN`T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. /19/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 53 80 55 78 / 0 8 13 13
MERIDIAN 47 79 52 79 / 0 5 13 9
VICKSBURG 52 79 55 79 / 0 12 13 14
HATTIESBURG 53 82 58 80 / 0 4 9 18
NATCHEZ 53 80 56 78 / 0 9 13 25
GREENVILLE 53 78 53 78 / 5 17 13 8
GREENWOOD 51 79 51 77 / 0 12 13 6

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/03/19

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

305 PM MDT SAT APR 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LINGERING UPPER TROUGHING AND ACCOMPANYING SOMEWHAT MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER NE MT. THIS BEHIND THE MAIN PART OF
THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...MAINLY IN OUR NW...AS QUITE
A BIT OF SUNSHINE TODAY INCREASED INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD END BY SUNSET. HRRR MODEL SHOWING THESE TO REMAIN ISOLATED
UNTIL THEN.

WITH LOSS OF HOOKUP WINDS THIS EVENING...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL EXPIRE BY 9 PM. IN LOOKING AT FOG POSSIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SNOWCOVERED AREAS...APPEARS ENOUGH WIND AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING. AND MODELS ARE QUITE DRY WITH TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS...AND SO LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 20S ALL AREAS.

UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW INTENSIFYING AND MOVING
SLOWLY E IN THE E PACIFIC...WHICH STARTS BUILDING A RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES THE NEXT 2 DAYS. MULTI-CENTERED SURFACE HIGH
STRETCHES FROM WY NW THRU W MT INTO BC TODAY AND SUNDAY.

MODELS INDICATE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS SUNDAY. WINDS
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ARE 20-30KT AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...SO
MIXING DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

WHILE WARMING ALOFT WITH UPPER RIDGING MONDAY...MODIFIED ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH OVER N CANADA TO COUNTERACT THIS AS IT SUPPLIES SOME
LOWER-LEVEL COOLER AIR TO NE MT AS THE HIGH INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
S. THIS TURNS WINDS N TO E. THUS JUST A LITTLE WARMING MONDAY
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. SIMONSEN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOR LONG TERM UPDATE...ADDED SOME THUNDER FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. EC AND GFS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR CENTRAL MT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS MODEL SHOWS INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH
COULD GIVE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM GIVES INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIODS. MARTIN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH DRY AND
WARM WEATHER EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MAIN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE
RESULT OF LONG WAVE TROF OFF THE WEST COAST EJECTING A SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW
TO HANDLE THIS WAVE ALTHOUGH THE 0Z RUNS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
LIFTING IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORTHEAST
MONTANA FROM THURSDAY TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT DIFFERING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GFS IS THE SLOWEST OF
THE BUNCH AS IT WINDS UP A CLOSED LOW OVER MONTANA...WHICH IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY ANY ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. A SECOND WAVE PUSHES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EBERT

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
THE MAIN ISSUE BEING TIMING OF WIND CHANGES. WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT SDY AND GDV. WINDS SHOULD DECLINE
TONIGHT BUT PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AT 7000 FT FROM CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
MARTIN

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FOR FORT PECK
LAKE IN THE FORT PECK LAKE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

1221 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING TSRA AFFECTING NE OK TERMINALS...AND
EVENTUALLY THE NW AR TERMINALS. HAVE CARRIED SOME MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE OUTSET AT BVO/TUL/RVS/XNA...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BENEATH ANY TSRA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD AFFECT FSM AND MLC. WIND SHIFT
WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT ALL SITES AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. N TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT STILL HANGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...STRETCHING
FROM JUST SOUTH OF WOODWARD NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR WICHITA. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WHICH...COMBINED
WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...MAKES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
PROBLEMATIC. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MORE IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE RAW NAM/GFS DEPICT...AS WELL AS THE LATEST RUC DATA.
ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER TO THE
NORTHWEST OF TULSA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY TO THE EAST...AND
WILL LIKELY ONLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING...THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE POPS WAS TRIMMED FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOCAL
WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 AND PROBABLY AFTER 00Z. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...AS
WELL AS THE LOCATION OF UPPER FORCING...SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MORNING CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NE OK SITES WILL PEAK IN
COVERAGE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN AR AND
SE OK SITES SEEING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT THUS PROB30 MENTION. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT WITHIN BRIEF HEAVIER PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT WILL WORK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LAST
EVENING HAVE HELD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES EASTWARD. ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY BECAME
SEVERE OVERNIGHT AND IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY... THUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS.

AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WITH MORE SURFACE
HEATING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY... STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY WASHING OUT... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK... WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED IN THE MODELS TO APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AND INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS
TO BECOME QUITE ACTIVE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

937 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/

WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY WASHING OUT... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK... WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CONDITIONS FOR EASTER
SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TAP GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ARE
PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A CORRIDOR BETWEEN A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH MANITOBA. 07.18Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IF
ANY 0-3KM MUCAPE PRESENT WITH NO UPWARD TREND EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MEANS THAT THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER DEVELOP. THIS COLD FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND END THE THREAT OF
THESE SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS WELL WITH ANY POST-
FRONTAL CUMULUS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT DISSIPATING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO EASTER SUNDAY AND WHAT KIND OF CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW
TONIGHT WITH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING BACK IN AS A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WHICH WILL CREATE STEEP SURFACE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
07.12Z NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS
BEING DRY ADIABATIC FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700MB BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM SITES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MAIN
QUESTION BEING HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BE FOR WINDS AND DEW
POINTS. DESPITE THE WELL MIXED PROFILE ENCOURAGES SOME GUSTINESS
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY
WEAK. 07.12Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER UP TO
AROUND 900MB WITH WINDS THERE BETWEEN 20 TO 30KTS. WITH NOT MUCH
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...THINKING THAT WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THIS 20
TO 30KT RANGE AND NOT TAP INTO THE HIGHER WINDS FURTHER ALOFT AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO MIX OUT AS
WELL...BUT AGAIN IT MAINLY DEPENDS ON HOW DEEP WE ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO. THIS COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO A DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER DAY TOMORROW TO WHERE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. FOR MORE
DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS AFD.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TOMORROW IS WITH SHOWER CHANCES AS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. 500-300MB PV ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON RIGHT AS PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING LEADS TO THE DEEP MIXING. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO
LEAD TO SOME COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WHICH IN TURN DEVELOPS
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY. IF THIS INSTABILITY WOULD
BE A LITTLE HIGHER THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A THREAT FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS VERY MARGINAL
TO EVEN GET LIGHTNING. THUS...WILL NOT BE MENTIONING IN THE HWO
OR OTHER PRODUCTS. AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT COME THROUGH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR.

A COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SECOND COLD
FRONT AS THE TROUGH STALLS OUT OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FORCING FROM THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES FOR MONDAY...SO
HAVE KEPT THEM DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE NEED FOR FREEZE WARNINGS STARTING
TUESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE FOR A HARD
FREEZE ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

WITH THE STACKED LOW SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AS
WELL WITH THE CORE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD
SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS LIKELY AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. THUS...THE NEED WILL BE THERE FOR ADDITIONAL
FREEZE WARNINGS WITH THE EARLY VEGETATION GROWTH THIS SPRING.

BEYOND THIS THE MAIN FEATURE IS WITH THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING
THAT TAKES SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS...DIFFERENCES
ARISE BETWEEN THE 07.12Z GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARD TO WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS HAD BEEN THE
FASTER MODEL THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH BRINGING THIS PRECIPITATION
IN...BUT NOW THE ECMWF HAS JUMPED IT AND IS NOW THE FAST ONE WITH
RAIN GETTING IN THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE ALL RAIN AS IT COMES IN AS WELL...SO HAVE
DROPPED THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FROM THE FORECAST.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1245 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE MVFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
METARS SHOW COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN
IOWA WITH CEILING HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 1000 FEET TO 3000 FEET. WITH
A FEW METARS REPORTING CEILINGS AS LOW AS 800 FEET. EXPECT CEILINGS
TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 2500 FEET AT LSE BY 20Z SATURDAY.
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT RST THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY LOWER TO 800 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CAN BE EXPECTED AT
BOTH TAF SITES DROPPING THE VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND BE SUSTAINED AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
AND GUST UP TO 20 TO 28 KNOTS AT BOTH RST AND LSE THROUGH 23Z
SATURDAY. FOR THIS EVENING...A DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
AND WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIE DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES.

.FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN
EFFECT FROM 1 PM THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...DTJ
FIRE WEATHER...DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

413 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

...UPDATED THE SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

ON THE NORTH AMERICAN SCALE...A RIDGE AXIS IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE
EXTENDED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. BROAD CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW
AND ATTENDANT LOWER HEIGHTS PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. THIS RESULTED IN ANOMALOUSLY LOW MID
TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES (PARTICULARLY 700MB) ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH -10 TO -15C COMMON PER
09/00Z RAOBS. AT 850MB THE 09/00Z OBSERVATIONS REVEALED A LARGE,
COOL AIRMASS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
850MB TEMPS WERE MODERATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT
STILL FAIRLY COOL WITH +7 TO +10C FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WERE
DEVELOPING WITHIN A MESOSCALE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S WERE FOUND AS FAR NORTH AS BEAVER, OKLAHOMA AS OF 08Z.
THIS MOISTURE WAS CONTINUING TO ADVANCE NORTH INTO A REGION OF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A SURFACE MESO LOW WAS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO NEAR LAMAR PER 08Z
OBSERVATIONS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

THIS MORNING:
THE SURFACE MESO LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 10Z AS MOISTURE IS PULLED
NORTHWARD TO THE MESO LOW CIRCULATION. CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL ENHANCE THE FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER GIVEN THIS FORECAST THINKING.
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE HOW LONG AND WHERE THE
STRATUS/FOG WILL PERSIST. THE RUC/HRRR/NAM ALL INDICATE A FAIRLY
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST KEEPING THE STRATUS/FOG LOCKED IN PLACE ALL
MORNING ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR.
BY NOON...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE AT THE EDGES...LEAVING A
COOL POCKET SOMEWHERE IN WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON:
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...THE STRATUS WILL ERODE AT
THE EDGES LEAVING A COOL POCKET AND HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS USING THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS AS GUIDANCE.
AS FAR AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE CONCERNED...THERE IS A FAIRLY LOW
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL BE GOING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTH OF
THE MESO LOW...DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL OCCUR AND
DIFFERENTIAL INSOLATION WILL AID IN INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS. SHORT
TERM MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT A PRETTY ROBUST AREA OF CONVERGENCE AT
THE SURFACE BY 21Z NEAR THE KS-OK BORDER SOUTH OF MEADE, KS. WITHIN
THIS AREA 1700-2200 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL DEVELOP TO GO
ALONG WITH 40-50 KTS OF WIND SHEAR MAGNITUDE IN THE 0-6KM AGL LAYER.
SURFACE BASED STRONG/SVR STORMS SHOULD FORM IN THIS ENHANCED AREA OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KS-OK BORDER WHERE THESE
INGREDIENTS OF MOISTURE, LIFT, WIND SHEAR, AND INSTABILITY WILL COME
TOGETHER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STORM MOTION...THE DURATION OF
CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD BE LIMITED IF THEY EVEN
DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH. WILL BE KEEPING THE POPS FAIRLY LOW 20-30
PERCENT ALONG THE OK BORDER GIVEN THIS THINKING.

TONIGHT:
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL AID IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH THE MESO LOW CIRCULATION REDEVELOPING BACK TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WILL BE ADDING IN AREAS OF FOG TO THE GRIDS ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH BELOW THE MID 50S
AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES UPWARD USING THE LATEST
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ADVANCING EASTWARD
AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS TROUGH
PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LONG
WAVE TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, SOME WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES THAT WILL SERVE TO
LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, RESULTING IN
A CONTINUED SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL WEDGE FROM THE
NORTH AND ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION OVER THE REMNANT COOL POOL OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUDS, ALONG
WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN. THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL BE RATHER STABLE SO THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF KANSAS
NEAR ELKHART WHERE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ELKHART ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY AFTER SOME WEAKENING TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
NEGATIVE TILT FASHION BY THURSDAY AS THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL
HANGS BACK NEAR THE WEST COAST. A REMNANT LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL WITH
STRATUS MAY BE LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, AND THIS
MAY LIMIT THE BREADTH OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER,
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING
HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE.
KEEP IN MIND THAT DEVELOPING STORMS COULD MOVE INTO STABLE AIR AND
FIZZLE IF THE WARM SECTOR IS NOT BROAD ENOUGH. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND DRY BEHIND THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE QUITE MILD FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SINCE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH 15 KT SOUTH WINDS. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH OR FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THEREFORE, THE DRYLINE WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OR
CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN OR EAST OF A LINE
FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO ENGLEWOOD. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE BEHIND THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. AGAIN, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM AT MID-LEVELS, THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE
CITY TO ENGLEWOOD, WITH MINIMAL CHANCES IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE MILD IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ONCE AGAIN
WITH LOWER TO EVEN MID 60S EXPECTED GIVEN THE 60-65F DEWPOINTS AND
10-15KT SOUTH WINDS. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD AT LEAST WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S, BUT SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS BY THIS
TIME MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALL THE MODELS KEEP THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WITH CONTINUED
RICH GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
THIS TIME, THERE IS OF COURSE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS AS WELL AS SURFACE FEATURES.
BUT GIVEN THIS REGIME, THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THESE COULD ALSO BE SEVERE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS MOISTURE
SLOWLY ADVANCES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO COOL AIRMASS. THE 11-3.9 MICRON IR LOOP WAS
CONFIRMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG OVER THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE RISING INTO THE 50 TO 54F
RANGE ON LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS A DDC-GCK LINE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AT GCK AND DDC SO THE STAGE
IS BEING SET FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. ALL THE SHORT-TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG, SO WILL BE
LOWERING THE VISIBILITY DOWN INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY FOR A FEW
HOURS ROUGHLY 11-14Z AT GCK AND DDC. THE CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO
RISE THROUGH IFR DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
STRATUS FINALLY ERODES ENOUGH TO SCATTERED/EROSION OF CEILING BY
AROUND MIDDAY. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 03Z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 52 61 51 / 20 20 30 40
GCK 66 51 61 51 / 10 10 30 40
EHA 74 52 62 53 / 20 20 30 50
LBL 76 53 63 52 / 20 20 30 50
HYS 70 46 64 48 / 0 10 10 20
P28 69 53 67 50 / 30 30 20 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ061>064-066-074>081-084>090.

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1251 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL SLIDE DOWN TWRDS MVFR DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS PATCHY FOG
SETTLES IN. THIS IS XPTD TO LAST THRU SR BEFORE LIFTING. VFR WX
THRU THE DAY TDY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

UPDATE...
WK AND DIFFUSE CD FNT SAGGING TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR...MARKED BY
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LT NLY WINDS ACRS CNTL LA COMPARED
TO SRN LA. A CLUSTER OF WHAT IS NOW JUST SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO E CNTL TX. THIS CLUSTER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND WIND GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS FINE...WITH UPDATES ALREADY SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

THE ARKANSAS DOME WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...PUSHING STALLED COLD FRONT TO THE COAST.

RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT...AND REMAIN PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED...DUE TO PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH
SOME SREF AND GFS INCORPORATED TO SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL STILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 82 62 82 61 80 / 20 10 40 30 30
KBPT 81 62 82 60 81 / 20 20 30 20 30
KAEX 81 59 80 57 75 / 20 10 50 30 30
KLFT 82 61 81 60 78 / 20 10 40 30 30

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

330 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CALM WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
CREATING SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
LEAD OF NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
NORTHWARD LATER IF THE RUC IS CORRECT... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME BEING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TODAY... WITH
THE STRONGEST FLOW REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... WHICH
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MIGRATE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS A WEAK WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

IT APPEARS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THAT THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER... THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL TRY TO REMAIN WEST OF
OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK... WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THAT SAID HOWEVER... OUR AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ROGUE
MCS ACTIVITY ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER US TRANSLATES EASTWARD
LATE IN THE WEEK... SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BEGIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR US GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE WAFFLING ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN. THE CURRENT GFS IS NOT LOOKING GOOD AT THIS TIME...
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SETTING UP PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE LOTS OF RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE SITUATION AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 74 56 74 50 / 10 30 10 20
FSM 77 56 76 51 / 10 20 20 10
MLC 74 58 76 56 / 10 30 10 30
BVO 73 50 73 47 / 10 30 10 20
FYV 72 48 69 43 / 10 20 20 10
BYV 73 49 70 41 / 10 20 20 0
MKO 75 56 74 52 / 10 30 20 20
MIO 75 50 72 44 / 10 20 10 10
F10 75 57 75 55 / 10 30 10 30
HHW 75 61 79 57 / 10 30 20 20

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ073-
OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....06

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

251 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
251 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS IN THE
NORTH FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA FROM NORTHERN
ALBERTA AND MANITOBA.

THE 09.00Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF KEEPING THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS STAYING TO THE EAST THE AREA AND
NOT PRODUCING MUCH VORTICITY ADVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...THE
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST BUT THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP THE REGION WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO PUMP DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP
MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TUESDAY...UP TO ABOUT 775 MB TODAY AND
800 MB TUESDAY. THIS DEEP MIXING WILL HELP PRODUCE TWO MORE DAYS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. AS
THE RIDGE AXIS GETS CLOSER WEDNESDAY...THE MIXING WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS DEEP...SO THE WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AND DEW
POINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20S. CRITICAL FIRE DANGERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WINDS AND LOW DEW POINTS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE NORTH FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND WILL CONVERT THE
FREEZE WATCH OVER TO A FREEZE WARNING. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER
FREEZE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
251 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY TO COME OUT OF THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIDE OF THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE
AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS FOR LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THE TROUGH EAST AND STARTS
TO COME OUT TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS CREATES A MESSY
PATTERN AS THE SURFACE WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WARM
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SECOND WAVE COMING OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA
BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE THUS PRETTY MUCH STAYED WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
LIMIT THE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY TO THE AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

WINDS DECOUPLED RATHER QUICKLY AROUND SUNDOWN...BECOMING MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH KRST SHOULD STAY FROM A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BREAK DOWN
MONDAY MORNING...IN THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME. WITH DEEP MIXING OF
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS UPWARDS OF 800 MB....COMBINED WITH A TIGHTER
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE NEAR SFC
LAYERS...ANOTHER WINDY/GUSTY DAY FOR KRST/KLSE IS ON TAP.

AS FOR CLOUDS...LATEST RUC13/NAM12 RH FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09-15Z.
HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DOESN/T MIMIC WHAT THE RUC AND
NAM HINT AT...ALTHOUGH SOME 4-5 KFT CIGS WERE SINKING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHERN MN. BELIEVE THESE CLOUDS WILL STAY NORTH TONIGHT...AND ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SOME 5 KFT SCT CU POTENTIAL PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH MONDAY
251 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR THE MOST
PART...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. BUT THIS COULD EASILY BE AT OR
BELOW THE 25 PERCENT CRITERIA IF TEMPERATURES LOCALLY WARM JUST A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OR IF THE DEW
POINTS DIP A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED. WILL THUS GO WITH THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA SINCE CURRENT FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE SO CLOSE TO CRITERIA.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
251 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.

IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1100 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
305 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH HARD FREEZE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY...A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW HAS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL
MANITOBA WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL ALTOSTRATUS LINGERED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG A CHANNEL OF 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
TODAY THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH...BUT OVERALL SKIES
SHOULD MAINLY BE CLEAR INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WINDS COMING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. DESPITE TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE 33-36F RANGE OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY WIDESPREAD FROST FROM
OCCURRING.

THE REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOMORROW WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE -3C TO -9C RANGE. LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO POOL ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE STATE WITH
INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD IOWA. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TOMORROW. 08.12Z
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER BRINGING GUSTS UP
TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS COMBINED WITH
LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM THE CLOUD DECK. SEE FIRE
WEATHER AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR TOMORROW NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO UPPER
20S...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH THAT
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FROST
FROM OCCURRING AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH JUST PATCHY FROST IN
THE FORECAST. WITH THE CORE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THAT MORE FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
305 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND WHEN THE
RAIN WILL REACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER DAY
OF FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE STILL NEARBY.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE BROAD TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SIGNAL BETWEEN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE. BEYOND THIS
FEATURE...DIFFERENCES START TO ARISE BETWEEN THE 08.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF WITH THE 500MB PATTERN AND ALIGNMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE 08.12Z GFS HAS A BIT MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO IT WHILE THE 08.12Z ECMWF IS MORE SOUTHERLY
AND KEEPS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHAT
THIS DOES AT THE SURFACE IS THAT THE ECMWF KEEPS A SOUTHERN
SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH RUNNING
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS HAS A VERY
WEAK LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE PRECIPITATION RUNNING MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...THEY STILL END UP
BRINGING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED ON AS WE APPROACH THIS SYSTEM ALONG
WITH ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER THAT MAY OCCUR. HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED
THUNDER-FREE FOR THE TIME BEING AS INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK
UNTIL MAYBE SATURDAY...YET CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT
IN AT THIS POINT.

.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH MONDAY
305 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

LOOK FOR THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN IMPROVE AFTER 8 PM WITH SUNSET. THE RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER DAY
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGERS. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH ALONG WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA VALID 1 PM TO 8 PM MONDAY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1100 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

WI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.

IA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

SHORT TERM.....HALBACH
LONG TERM......HALBACH
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

745 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

DENSE FOG HAD MOVED INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS, THE DENSE
FOG IN AREAS FURTHER EAST IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AREA.
CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BASED
ON SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT AND REPORTS OF FOG. AFTER THE FOG BURNS
OFF, STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY IN THIS AREA OF CENTRAL
KANSAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH 16Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AT
GCK/DDC. IFR/LIFR CIGS COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT
GCK/DDC. IFR CIGS AND VISBYS MAY RETURN LATER TONIGHT AT GCK/DDC
AS THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN MOIST ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 52 61 51 / 20 20 30 40
GCK 66 51 61 51 / 10 10 30 40
EHA 73 52 62 53 / 10 20 30 50
LBL 74 53 63 52 / 20 20 30 50
HYS 70 46 64 48 / 0 10 10 20
P28 71 53 67 50 / 30 30 20 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ063>066-
077>081-087>090.

UPDATE...FINCH
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

702 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 52 61 51 / 20 20 30 40
GCK 66 51 61 51 / 10 10 30 40
EHA 71 52 62 53 / 10 20 30 50
LBL 74 53 63 52 / 20 20 30 50
HYS 70 46 64 48 / 0 10 10 20
P28 69 53 67 50 / 30 30 20 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ061>064-066-074>081-084>090.

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

714 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST. THE LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUPY
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THOUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND THEN CLEAR
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

.AVIATION...AT 7 AM CDT/12Z MONDAY CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS AND
OCNL MVFR CIGS AT KJMS UNTIL 15Z...THEN SCATTERED AFTER 15Z. VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS
NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 KTS AT KJMS...AND 15 TO 20 KTS AT
KISN/KBIS/KMOT/KDIK TIL 01Z.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ034>037-045>048-050-051.

SHORT TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

451 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS TODAY LIE WITH VERY DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...SHIFTING TO THE POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. A COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...AGAIN MAKING COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A FOCUS. THEN THE
PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A WARMER AND MUCH MORE ACTIVE ONE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED ON MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
EASTERN NOAM...WITH A FEW CLOSED UPPER LOWS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
EMBEDDED IN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS IN PLACE
OVER WESTERN NOAM...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST NORTH TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A LARGE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WAS OFF THE WEST COAST. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NOAM WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN COOL DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT THEN THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL FORCE THE RIDGE
EASTWARD...BRINGING A LATE WEEK WARM UP AND ALSO OPENING UP THE GULF
FOR MOISTURE TO FLOW NORTHWARD. THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PRESS EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MAINLY SUNNY TODAY OTHER THAN A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WITH VERY
DEEP MIXING UP NEAR 700 MB NOTED ON AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS. THIS ENABLED
THE VERY DRY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS
FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN...ALSO DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME
AIRPORT OBS OCCASIONALLY REACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
GUSTS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO PROMPT ISSUANCE OF A SHORT-FUSE
WIND ADVISORY. TEMPS ALOFT WERE SLOWLY COOLING...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS AND DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES BROUGHT ANOTHER MILD DAY
TO THE CWA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 60S. RED FLAG WARNING
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
FALL.

TONIGHT...AS STRONG...COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT...KEEPING WINDS GOING EVEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TRIES TO DECOUPLE. RUC HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER OVER
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...SO HAVE SOME
CLOUDS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF CWA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. BEHIND A WEAK COLD FROPA...850 MB TEMPS
DROP TO WELL BELOW 0C LATE TONIGHT AND COLD LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAINLY WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
VALLEY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ADDING IN
KANE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES. NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARD SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...BUT DESPITE THIS AND WINDS BEING LIMITING
FACTOR TO HOW FAR TEMPERATURES FALL AND PRECLUDING FROST
DEVELOPMENT...STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO NEAR FREEZING FOR THE WARNING AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA...EXPECTING LOW TO MID 30S...WITH UPPER 30S IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.

TUESDAY...WITH LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO OUR NORTHWEST...SLIGHTLY
WEAKER BUT STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER BREEZY
AND DRY DAY WITH DEEP MIXING TO OR ABOVE 800 MB. TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C AT H85 WILL TRANSLATE TO BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID
50S SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SOME MORE STOUT DIURNAL CU OR STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR NE IL...AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THIN LAYER CLOSE TO SATURATION AT TOP OF
MIXED LAYER.

WILL LIKELY NEED FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOL DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE
LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT CHICAGO URBAN
CORE...WITH UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS. TO REDUCE
CONFUSION...KEEPING IT DAY BY DAY WITH FREEZE HEADLINES SO MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL LIKELY ISSUE A PRODUCT OVERNIGHT FOR TOMORROW NIGHT`S
EXPECTED FREEZING CONDITIONS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP WINDS GOING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER TO AREA. SHOULDNT BE MUCH WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AWAY
FROM THE LAKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S DUE TO MODEST WARM
ADVECTION...BUT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKEFRONT COOLER...IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. DESPITE WARMING ALOFT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...IT LOOKS TO BE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO
DECOUPLE...LEADING TO VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. THUS WENT BELOW MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT IMMEDIATE CHICAGO AREA AGAIN. FREEZE HEADLINES CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY...TURNING THE LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW SOUTHEASTERLY. ALONG WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ADD ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES TO FORECAST HIGHS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW 60S
SOUTH. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OR A LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP THE ILLINOIS
LAKEFRONT COOLER...CURRENTLY EXPECTING LOW 50S. SKY WILL START OUT
SUNNY...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY FILTERING IN DURING
AFTERNOON FROM SYSTEM WELL BACK TO OUR WEST.

EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A TRANSITION TO A MILDER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DOES INCREASE WITH TIMING AND DETAILS DURING THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTING OFF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO OUR EAST. FARTHER WEST...BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IS DEPICTED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER JET
STREAK THAT EJECTS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN
DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ECMWF AND GEM ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN OUR
DOMESTIC MODELS WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS AND THIS IS PREFERRED GIVEN HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING SURFACE HIGH SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AT BAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND HAVE THUS TRIMMED POPS THERE ALONG THE
LINES OF THE GEM WHICH IS BETWEEN THE DRY ECMWF AND MORE MOIST GFS
IN TERMS OF PRECIP COVERAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND
UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH DEGREE OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...THOUGH WEAK WAVE AND WARM FRONT SHOULD
DEVELOP INTO IOWA/MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY NIGHT PER GEM SOLUTION. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT SOLID CHANCE POPS WITH A FEW PERIODS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. SECOND/STRONGER UPPER WAVE LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINTAINING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN EVOLUTION OF
DETAILS OF SURFACE PATTERN AND TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS
IS STRONGER/MORE CLOSED WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH
THE INITIAL WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN
SECOND LOW TAKING A MORE EAST/SOUTH TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. ECMWF...WITH A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE...HOLDS THE SECOND LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY...WITH A LATER COLD FROPA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO
PREFER A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...AND A POTENTIALLY GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER LOCALLY. WIDE-OPEN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIALLY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD...WITH 12Z GEFS INDICATING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO.

FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP THREAT POTENTIALLY
CLOSE WHILE COOLER/STABLE SURFACE AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE CWA IN
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

RATZER

.FIRE WEATHER...
352 PM CDT

RED FLAG CRITERIA IS CURRENTLY BEING MET RATHER EASILY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY AT SUNSET...BUT AM
CONCERNED SOME AREAS COULD BE MEETING OR AT LEAST VERY CLOSE TO
CRITERIA STILL AT 7 PM...SO WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING ANOTHER HOUR UNTIL 8 PM.

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE TAFOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEEP MIXING OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR FROM ABOVE H7 WILL KEEP WIND
GUSTS UP THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS FALL OFF OVERNIGHT
AFTER SUNSET...AROUND THE 0030 HOUR TO CLOSE TO 0100. DIURNAL VFR
CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN
INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN STRATO-CU FIELD ACROSS MN AND WI WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AS IT SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...MAYBE CLIPPING THE EASTERN ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN BORDER
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW WHEN WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP...AND THE CHANCES FOR A
SCT TO BKN VFR CIG TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH INCREASE BEYOND THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHEA

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

MTF

.MARINE...
202 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY. THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY LATE WEEK THE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THESE WINDS APPEAR TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS COMING WEEKEND.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...RED FLAG WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.

FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...2 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.

IN...RED FLAG WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8 PM
MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

353 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A TRANSITION TO A MILDER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DOES INCREASE WITH TIMING AND DETAILS DURING THE PERIOD.

RATZER

.FIRE WEATHER...
352 PM CDT

IZZI

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* W-NW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON

SHEA

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

SHEA

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS

SHEA

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

MTF

.MARINE...
202 PM CDT

KJB

FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...2 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.

IN...RED FLAG WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8 PM
MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

315 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A TRANSITION TO A MILDER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DOES INCREASE WITH TIMING AND DETAILS DURING THE PERIOD.

RATZER

.FIRE WEATHER...
1040 AM CDT

CURRENT FIRE WX HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE BECOMING GUSTY AND DEW POINTS ARE DROPPING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA AS MIXING COMMENCES THIS MORNING. I
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPEAR THAT THEY WILL DROP BELOW 20
PERCENT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* W-NW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON

SHEA

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

SHEA

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS

SHEA

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

MTF

.MARINE...
202 PM CDT

KJB

FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...2 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.

IN...RED FLAG WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7
PM
MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY
IS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY
IN UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

300 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

AFD

SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

TUESDAY...WITH LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO OUR NORTHWEST...SLIGHTLY
WEAKER BUT STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER BREEZY
AND DRY DAY WITH DEEP MIXING TO OR ABOVE 800 MB. TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW 0C AT H85 WILL TRANSLATE TO BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID
50S SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SOME MORE STOUT DIURNAL CU OR STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR NE IL...AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THIN LAYER CLOSE TO SATURATION AT TOP OF
MIXED LAYER.

.FIRE WEATHER...
1040 AM CDT

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* W-NW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON

SHEA

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

SHEA

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS

SHEA

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

MTF

.MARINE...
202 PM CDT

KJB

FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...2 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.

IN...RED FLAG WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM
MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1224 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DDC
AND GCK TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BREAKING
AWAY TO VFR CEILINGS AOA030 BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HAYS
TERMINAL WILL REMAIN AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA060. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA 42

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

538 PM EDT MON APR 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT, MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. COLD WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY, AND COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND MENTION THUNDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PER BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE, SATELLITE, AND RADAR DATA, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WINDS CAN GUST TO 35 MPH.

SPC HAS SUGGESTED THUNDER CAN DEVELOP, BUT LOWLEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TOO MEAGER TO INITIATE THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT,
WHERE SURFACE LAYER TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING MAY INDUCE A
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT NO ACCUMULATION DUE TO
INITIALLY WARM GROUND.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AS COLD UPPER LOW PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

RESULTING SURFACE LAYER INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE LIFT WILL
CAUSE SHOWERS TO BE MORE NUMEROUS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND I-80
CORRIDOR. HAVE ADDED CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING LATE NIGHT
PERIODS WHEN SURFACE LAYER TEMPERATURES GO BELOW MID 30S.

SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES, FORECAST WAS BASED ON RECENT BLEND OF GFS,
NAM AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT WHICH SHOWED DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEARLY 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES
CAN GO BELOW FREEZING.

BY THURSDAY, INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
SUBSIDENCE TO END REMAINING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE
CLOUDS BY DAYTIME THURSDAY. HENCE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PERHAPS ONLY 5 AND 8 DEGREES COLDER
THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS RELATIVELY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AS THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD WITH MINUTE
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORTWAVE STRENGTH WITHIN THE PATTERN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS HOWEVER...DOESN`T SEEM TO IMPACT THE MODEL PARAMETERS
TOO MUCH AS THE STRONGER ECMWF STILL KEEPS THE REGION DRY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

THERE IS GREATER MODEL SPREAD TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO BREAK THE 500HPA
RIDGE DOWN. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AS HPC HAS MENTIONED...SO OPTED
TO REMAIN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH A HEAVIER EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES. THIS BROUGHT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING SATURDAY AND MAINTAINED THEM THROUGH MONDAY.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO HPC NUMBERS WHICH STRAY SLIGHTLY FROM MEX
GUIDANCE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TNGT DESPITE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT
WHICH IGNITED SCT...BUT HIGH BASED SHRA ACRS THE OH VALLEY REGION
THIS AFTN. THE LAST OF THOSE SHRA WL FADE THIS EVE AS SPPRTG
SHORTWV PASSES...AND AS TEMPS FALL BLO CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS. WIND
GUSTS WL ALSO CEASE AS DECOUPLING OCCURS.

COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH RETROGRADING UPR LOW PRES WL SPPRT MORE
SHRA...AND SHSN ON TUESDAY. GIVEN A FAIRLY DECENT SPREAD IN THE
PROGNOSIS OF THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD...THINK THAT CIGS WL AGAIN BE
IN THE VFR CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY BRIEFLY
DURING THE AFTN. FOR NOW WL LEAVE THAT AS AN UNMENTIONABLE IN THE
TAFS. WITH STEEP LOW LAPSE RATES AGAIN EXPECTED...SFC WND GUSTS NR
25 KT MAG AGAIN BE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL REINFORCE COOL NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE LAKES AND BRING
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

410 PM EDT MON APR 9 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE, SATELLITE, AND RADAR DATA, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT, EXPECT THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WINDS CAN GUST TO 35 MPH.

SPC HAS SUGGESTED THUNDER CAN DEVELOP, BUT LOWLEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TOO MEAGER TO INITIATE THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AS COLD UPPER LOW PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO HPC NUMBERS WHICH STRAY SLIGHTLY FROM MEX
GUIDANCE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES
SOUTHWESTWARD. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH DIURNAL
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WINDS TO GUST TO 25KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AT SUNSET.

AS THE LOW AND COLD POOL APPROACHES TUESDAY...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME CIG RESTRICTIONS. WHILE
THE NAM AND SREF SUGGEST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...NO OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS. THUS...WITH LIMITED
CONFIDENCE...DECIDED TO KEEP MAINLY VFR FOR MOST SITES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL REINFORCE COOL NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKES AND BRING
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1241 PM EDT MON APR 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
INTO TUESDAY, PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES,
THAT CAN LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE, SATELLITE, AND RADAR DATA, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT, HAVE AGAIN TWEAKED
MENTION OF SHOWER CHANCES. THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF SCATTERED
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. RECENT DATA ALSO SHOWS A COLD FRONTAL BAND OF
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO, WHICH HRRR MODEL OUTPUT
SHOWS SWEEPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE U.S.
422 CORRIDOR.

SPC HAS SUGGESTED THUNDER CAN DEVELOP, BUT LOWLEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TOO MEAGER TO INITIATE THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

CONTINUED FORECAST OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH.

THERE MAY BE A CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT, BUT OF NO CONSEQUENCE DUE TO WARM GROUND.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A COLD UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL ROTATES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
KEEPING CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE
LAYER MAY BE COLD ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT AND PERHAPS MORE SO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, BUT DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY CAN
BE 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY CAN BE STILL 10
DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL, DEPENDING HOW MUCH LINGERING EFFECT
THE EXITING COLD UPPER LOW STILL HAS. CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
GOING MUCH COLDER THAN 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL MAKE THE
LATE NIGHT SURFACE LAYER COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN...THE FINER DETAILS AND SHORTWAVES THAT
EVENTUALLY LIFT THE TROUGH TO THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD HAVE NOT
RESOLVED AS WELL. THUS...KEPT CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE KEEPING THE
REGION DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND BRINGING IN CHANCE POPS SAT AND
SUN WITH THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND NAEFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL
WARMING TO AT AND ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF VFR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS. THE
FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KMGW.
NAM/NMM-WRF SUPPORT THE SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH DIURNAL MIXING
WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WINDS TO GUST TO 20-25KTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN
10KTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL REINFORCE COOL NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKES AND BRING
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1205 PM EDT MON APR 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
INTO TUESDAY, PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES,
THAT CAN LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWEAKED MENTION OF SHOWER CHANCES, GENERALLY LOWERING THEM FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR, PER RECENT HRRR AND SREF MODEL
OUTPUT, THAT SHOWED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON HAVING
MORE EFFECT SOUTH THAN NORTH. LIKEWISE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVERAGE SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD.

CONTINUED FORECAST OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH.

THERE MAY BE A CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT, BUT OF NO CONSEQUENCE DUE TO WARM GROUND.

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF VFR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS. THE
FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KMGW.
NAM/NMM-WRF SUPPORT THE SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

408 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON CENTERS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL VORT
MAX CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND WEST TX. THIS AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE HAS
LED TO SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A
LINE AND PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
FAVORABLE BULK SHEER VALUES...AND SBCAPES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG
WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NM BORDER WHERE SURFACE WINDS WERE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #152...
HAVE GONE AND INCREASED POPS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE CO-
LOCATED. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN OK
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SQUARELY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. WHILE THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND ANY FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
A GOOD FETCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING AS A VORT MAX TOPS
THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE. AGAIN THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THUS HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY.
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE LOW TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN CO/NM. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...FOCUSING
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SPLIT INTO TWO CHUNKS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN
PIECE LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY. HAVE
NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOCUSING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TX. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A WET
START TO THE NEXT WEEK THOUGH AS DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CAN GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW FOR THIS
PERIOD AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THIS
SOLUTION OVER THEIR NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

CLK

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM THUNDERSTORMS CAN CAUSE FIRE STARTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WHERE FUELS ARE NOT AS MOIST.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A DRYLINE
SURGES INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES BUT THIS IS
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS AREA RECEIVES EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.

CLK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 53 72 55 70 53 / 40 60 50 50 50
BEAVER OK 55 68 52 67 56 / 40 40 50 30 40
BOISE CITY OK 50 67 51 70 50 / 30 40 50 30 40
BORGER TX 54 74 57 71 56 / 40 60 50 40 50
BOYS RANCH TX 53 78 55 75 53 / 40 60 50 40 50
CANYON TX 53 74 54 73 52 / 40 60 50 50 50
CLARENDON TX 57 74 56 70 56 / 50 60 50 40 60
DALHART TX 50 72 52 69 48 / 30 40 50 40 40
GUYMON OK 53 68 53 69 55 / 30 40 50 30 40
HEREFORD TX 52 74 54 71 51 / 40 60 40 40 50
LIPSCOMB TX 54 68 54 66 57 / 50 60 50 40 50
PAMPA TX 54 70 53 67 56 / 50 60 50 40 50
SHAMROCK TX 57 73 57 69 59 / 60 60 50 40 60
WELLINGTON TX 59 76 59 71 60 / 60 60 50 40 60

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

11/05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

356 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS WITH CHANCE AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM
FAVOR OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY GROW UPSCALE
INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO AND TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THAT AREA BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CARRYING THE HIGHEST POPS /40-50 PERCENT/
ACROSS THAT AREA. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP COVERING THE SOUTHERN BIG
COUNTRY AND NORTHWESTERN CONCHO VALLEY...WHERE MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW WHAT MAY BE A WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS TOWARD OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST TEXAS...THE HRRR AND WRF SHOW CONSIDERABLE
DEVELOPMENT AND INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF THIS CONVECTION MERGING
WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED CLUSTER AS IT TRACKS TOWARD OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. FOR NOW...TAKING
A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH POPS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED
PENDING EVENING DEVELOPMENT.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TRICKY AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. CARRYING LOWS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AND THE
COOLER /UPPER 50S/ READINGS MAY BE ACROSS OUR HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWEST. MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER FIELDS LOOK DOUBTFUL FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF OUR AREA TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT RIDGE...KEEPING POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SAG ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG.

ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE DRYLINE BECOMING
ACTIVE TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES THE AREA. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WEDNESDAY EVENING
MAY SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A LESSENING
SEVERE THREAT AS INSTABILITY WANES. INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASED
POPS TO CHANCE ALL ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LO0KS UNSETTLED AS WE REMAIN
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRYLINE ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS WEAK IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER AZ/NM ON SATURDAY...TRACKING SLOWLY EAST INTO WEST TEXAS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 82 62 83 60 81 / 20 20 10 20 10
SAN ANGELO 84 61 85 60 83 / 10 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 83 60 84 60 82 / 10 10 10 10 10

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

19/24