Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/08/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
330 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF AREA AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH OVER GREAT BASIN. SOME REPORTS OF GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH ACROSS
PLAINS AND ALONG FOOTHILLS. TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
WYOMING DURING THE EVENING WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED DRY FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WINDS
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. LATEST NAM AND RUC HINTING AT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVENING BEHIND TROUGH AS
SUBSIDENCE IS AT ITS PEAK. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING
THE EVENING...WITH HINTS OF A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING BY
06Z. RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF AREA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME REBOUND IN HUMIDITY AFTER 8PM AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND WINDS
DECREASE A BIT. WILL ALSO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER EARLY IN THE EVENING AS WEAK LIFT WITH TROUGH CLIPS
THAT AREA. THERE ARE SOME RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP IN WYOMING AT
THIS TIME. FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE DECREASING WIND
TREND...THOUGH MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY ALONG NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS BEHIND EXITING TROUGH. STRONG WINDS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CROSS MOUNTAIN
FLOW AROUND 50 KTS BEFORE DECREASING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SHOW WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS PLAINS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WEAKENS BY 18Z. WINDS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ENOUGH ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS TO STAY BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BEHIND TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO COLORADO...THEN THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ACCORDING TO THE QPF VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS...BENIGN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ADHERE
TO NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK SURGE TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE PLAINS THE REST OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS SPARSE MOISTURE PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
INDICATED...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSLOPE OVER SOME OF THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY. IT STAYS DRY OTHERWISE THE REST OF MONDAY...WITH A BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION PROGGED ON THE QPF FIELDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES...
SUNDAY`S HIGHS WARM UP 3-6 C FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS. MONDAY`S HIGHS
ARE ARE 0-2 C WARMER THAN SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BETTER SOLUTION OF THE UPPER
FEATURES FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT OVER OUR CWA. STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW IS PROGGED THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY. IN FACT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE A JET MAXIMUM OVER THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL BAD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
...IN FACT...THE ECMWF HAS DECENT MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM WHAT
THE 4-7 DAY GFE INIT GRIDS HAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS...
A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY AT BJC WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS PREVAILING.
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 02Z WITH TROUGH PASSAGE WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING. MODELS SHOW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT AS WEAK ANTICYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
THOUGH RUC AND NAM SLOWER WITH DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD DELAY WIND
DECREASE. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 12 KTS BY 18Z. VFR TO CONTINUE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ211-213-215-238-240-242>245.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D_L
LONG TERM....KOOPMEINERS
AVIATION...D_L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
952 AM EDT FRI APR 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A SPOT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. LOW PRESSURE BACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES NEXT
WEEK...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE MOVED SWD ACROSS N
ZONES THIS MORNING. RUC 850 MB RH IS PICKING UP ON THESE CLOUDS
AND SUGGESTS SCT-BKN SC WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF SNE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPS/WIND. MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
CENTRAL HILLS AND CAPE/ISLANDS. MIXING FROM 850 MB WILL BRING
WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ESP ACROSS NH TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE...BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE IN
THE MID LEVELS. STILL EXPECT A DRY FORECAST AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NOT A LOT OF LIFT. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF
THE NNW BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO A CHILLY 20 DEGREES
ACROSS INTERIOR NH AND MASS...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WILL STAY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
TOMORROW...
UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. STILL GETTING
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SEE BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
MIXING OCCURS. A GOOD COOL POOL WILL BE IN PLACE ESP ACROSS THE EAST
COAST OF THE REGION. DECIDED TO INSERT POPS FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AS
DAYTIME HEATING UNDER THE COOL POOL WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY.
EXPECT A LOW PROBABILITY BUT DEF CAN NOT RULE IT OUT. TEMPS WILL
WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...COOLER ALONG THE EAST COAST/CAPE/AND
ISLANDS. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AS MOISTURE POOLS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ENCAMPED WITHIN THE EAST COAST MEAN
UPPER TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
OCEANIC LOW PRESSURE MOVES ASHORE IN THE MARITIMES EAST OF HALIFAX
AND THEN MIGRATES WEST TO NORTHERN MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS IS FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE CENTER POSITION. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR CLOUDS ALL AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE THEN THINS IN DEPTH ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST A MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN MOST PLACES. STILL A SUFFICIENT LAYER OF
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN MASS FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW...NOT A LOT OF LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SO ANY SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE
EAST CLOSEST TO THE SYSTEM.
TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF B-C MOS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW LINGER OVER QUEBEC MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAINTAINS A DEEP
LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
SHORTWAVES. FIGURE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AS EACH
SHORTWAVE MOVES PAST. SKY COVER IS A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GMOS
DATA...TEMPS A BLEND OF GMOS AND HPC GRID DATA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME NW GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 20 KTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...MOSTLY VFR. MAY SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE N AND E WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW PROBABILITY
OF MVFR CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR TO START...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
MOVING THROUGH FROM EAST TO WEST IN SHOWERS...ESP ALONG THE EAST COAST.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AND ISLANDS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
N TO NW FLOW CONTINUES...HOWEVER EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KT THRESHOLD WITH A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS...DESPITE GUSTIER WINDS INLAND. WAVES REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4
FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DISTANT OCEAN STORM WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL NORTHERLY SCA WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST MOVES INTO NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN MOVES WEST TO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY. MOST WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT VALUES. HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER QUEBEC THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS
BRINGS A PERSISTANT WEST SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT
BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. ROUGH
SEAS LINGER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE IN EFFECT. SOME GUIDENCE POINTS TOWARD GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY. WE HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST SPEEDS UP A
LITTLE TO FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT HAVE KEPT VALUES BELOW GALES FOR
NOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH IN THESE
AREAS. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED OVER CT/RI AND E AND SE MA WITH
GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 15-20 MPH. IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE
OFFICIALS HAVE CANCELLED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PREV DAYS. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE SHORT-FUSED WARNING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
COAST. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF 25 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON THE COAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SO THE BIGGEST CONCERN APPEARS TO BE INLAND FROM
THE COAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY AND A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
A SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES ON THIS MORNING`S 12 UTC OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED ALOFT AS THE
UPPER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SLOWLY GIVES WAY TO THE
ADVANCING TOUGH TOWARD THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS CLOUD COVER ENCOMPASSED ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AND THE 12 UTC
KDDC SOUNDING INDICATED A 5.5 KFT THICK CLOUD LAYER. THIS CLOUD
LAYER WAS ONLY BEGINNING TO SHOW SLIGHT SIGNS OF ERODING NEAR THE
COLORADO STATE LINE BY MIDDLE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
IMMEDIATELY FOR TONIGHT, THE STABLE LAYER WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE
HIRES-ARW AND LOCAL HRRR MODELS BOTH DEVELOP ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE, WHILE THE HIRES-NMM PRODUCES NOTHING ALONG THIS DRYLINE
FEATURE THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE`D EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF
CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT, AS THE NAM BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INDICATE LOWER VALUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM MONTANA INTO WYOMING WILL BE THE
BOUNDARY THAT IS DRIVEN THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER, THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE NAM MODEL DUE TO THE PRESENT SHALLOW THETA-E
AXIS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG, IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR A FEW STOUT UPDRAFTS AND BRIEF SMALL HAILCORES
THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ROUGHLY EAST
OF A SCOTT CITY TO MINNEOLA AND ASHLAND LINE. ONCE THE BOUNDARY
SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA DEEP DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO ALLOW FULL
SUN FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THE DAYTIME WILL
FAIRLY BREEZY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH AROUND 18Z
BEFORE AN ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES, EASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLACKENING
WINDS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TEMPER THE SURFACE HEATING,
RELEGATING GENERALLY TO THE LOW AND MID 60`S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
ON THE NEAR SIDE OF THE 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE NOW
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OVERRIDING CONDITIONS OF THE FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, I ADDED A FEW LOWER END POPS
TO THE MONDAY PERIOD, WHICH WERE NOT PREVIOUSLY IN THERE. WILL
BRING IN 20 POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN 1 TO 2 TIER OF COUNTIES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, AND THEN CONCENTRATE 20 POPS NORTH AND 30 POPS SOUTH
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVER RUNNING
WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SLIGHT STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE, INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE NEAR A JOHNSON
CITY TO DODGE CITY TO PRATT LINE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
WANDER NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO JUST WEST OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE 50 TO 55
PERCENT RANGE WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT REDUCE TO 40 PERCENT. BY FRIDAY,
THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY IN OUR WEST AND PARTLY CLOUDY IN OUR
EASTERN CWA. THROUGH THE MONDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD, SOME SPOTS MAY
RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 0.66 INCH OF RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN 2
TIER OF COUNTIES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SUNDAY MORNING IS THE MOST INTERESTING AND
CHALLENGING. USING THE LOW END VALUES OF THE MINXXX (GCK, DDC, ETC)
GUIDANCE TO POPULATE THE SAT NT/SUN MORN MIN T`S, AND THE RESULT WAS
AS COLD AS 32F AT SCOTT CITY, 34F NORTHWEST OF A DIGHTON TO JOHNSON
CITY LINE, AND AROUND 35F OR BELOW NORTHWEST OF A HAYS TO SUBLETTE
TO NEAR HUGOTON LINE. AT FIRST, I LEANED TOWARD A FROST ADVISORY
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST TIER OF COUNTIES, BUT DECIDED TO USE A MORE
GRADUAL APPROACH, AND INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO REFLECT THIS AS WELL.
MINS SHOULD INCREASE AS SOON AS MON MORNING SINCE THE WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE CLOSER, THE OVER RUNNING CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE AREA, AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WARM, MOIST AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN OUR NORTH TO NEAR 50F DEGREES IN OUR
SOUTH. MINS WILL BE SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN COOL A
BIT INTO THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SE BY FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE PERIODIC PRECIPITATION,
WITH SUNDAY STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WARM TO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT,
AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THE FRONT COULD
BE NUDGING FARTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY, WITH RESULTANT MAX TEMPS
RESPONDING LIKEWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
AND THE MID 60S IN OUR NORTHEAST SECTIONS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A LITTLE
COOL AIR RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH, WITH HIGHS
REACHING NEAR 70F DEGREES IN OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE MID 60S IN OUR
NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH LEE TROUGHING
IS INCREASING THE WIND FIELD OVER WESTERN KANSAS, THE STRATUS LAYER
IS DEEP ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SLOW STRATUS AT LEAST AT HYS AND DDC
THROUGH THE EVENING. GCK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR STRATUS AS
WELL, BUT THE CLEARING LINE MAY GET CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL IN THE
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12 UTC SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/CB`S WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 66 36 68 / 40 30 0 0
GCK 44 64 34 71 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 44 64 37 72 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 47 66 37 71 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 49 65 35 68 / 70 40 0 0
P28 54 68 39 69 / 60 50 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...MAJORITY OF
FOG AND DRIZZLE IS CONFINED TO THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE AREA. AS YESTERDAY...THE HRRR IS CATCHING THIS VERY WELL.
SO REDUCED THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND DRIZZLE PER REASONING GIVEN
ABOVE. OTHERWISE...JUST ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WINDS/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
NEXT IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS DIGGING/SPLITTING OFF INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. AIR MASS AT LOW LEVELS
IS MOIST WITH VERY DRY AT MID LEVELS.
AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS DID FINE BUT TENDED TO HAVE THE UPPER
TROUGH/JET SEGMENT TO OUR WEST A LITTLE TO FAR TO THE EAST.
THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING WELL ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. OVER THE AREA MODELS DID NOT HAVE THE COOLER AIR OVER THE
STATE FAR ENOUGH WEST. WITH THIS AND OVERALL THE GFS AND CANADIAN
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET.
TODAY/TONIGHT...PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY WITH
MODEST PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD DEFINITELY SUPPORT WINDY. AS THE
DAY SHIFT BROUGHT UP...LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP THE FULL
POTENTIAL OF THE WIND FROM BEING REACHED. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT HAS COME IN AND NOW HOLDS ONTO THE CLOUDS EVEN LONGER AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN COOLER. SO AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY AND CONTINUE THE WINDY WORDING. THE LATEST NAM...RUC AND
HRRR SHOW CLEARING OCCURRING ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE CLOUDS HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN THE CENTER.
AND FROM PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE...THAT IS A REASONABLE SOLUTION. AS A
RESULT...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED OFF MAXES FROM EARLIER THINKING.
CURRENT DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE END OF THE SHIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME JET LIFT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT BUT THE BRUNT OF ITS LIFT IS FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST. BECAUSE OF THE COOLER MAXES NOW EXPECTED...
INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS AND CINH WILL BE MORE. GFS AND NAM
DEFINITELY SHOW THAT. ON TOP OF THIS COOLER STABLE LAYER...THE MODELS
BRING A VERY STRONG WARM/DRY LAYER ALOFT. AS A RESULT OF THIS HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 03Z WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEGINNING AT 06Z. THIS IS WHEN THE INHIBITION IS THE WEAKEST AND
WHEN THE FRONT STARTS MOVING THROUGH. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
SPOTTY WITH LITTLE TO NO THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT AND HIGH THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT. SO WILL PROBABLY BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN SLOWLY SLACKEN.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...PER COLLABORATION HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. FIRST WE ARE NOT THAT FAR REMOVED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. THERE HAS NOT BE A LOT OF CHANCE
TO DRY OUT WITH LITTLE SUNSHINE...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NOT A LOT
OF WIND. DRIER AIR DOES COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE MORNING. SO FOR THOSE REASONS
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCHING
THIS. 850 MB/2 METER/NWP SUPPORT GOING TOWARD A COOLER DAY. LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF COOL AIR UPSTREAM BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND
WILL GO TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND DID ADJUST DOWN SLIGHTLY.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS START OUT LIGHT IN THE EVENING AND THEN QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SO THE LOWS WILL BE EARLY.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
IN LATE IN THE DAY. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET A LITTLE TRICKY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION. ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS BY MONDAY...WITH NW FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
EASTERLY BL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD LIMIT
DAYTIME WARMING BOTH DAYS. I COOLED HIGH TEMPS TO UPPER 50S TUE/WED
IN THE EAST AND MID-UPPER 60S IN THE WEST AND SOUTH TO STAY WITHIN
COLLABORATION...HOWEVER THIS STILL MAY BE TOO WARM.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA NEAR THE STALLED FRONT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE
GREAT BASIN. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND GULF MOISTURE BUILDS NORTH
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVERSPREADING THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT...WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
BUILDING NORTH INTO THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE LOOKS TO BE
OVER SW KS...THOUGH A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CANT BE RULED OUT
FURTHER NORTH OVER CWA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS BECOMING A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NW KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE AREA IN LINE FOR DECENT RAINFALL.
SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF RUN-RUN AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...
I DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE POPS OUTSIDE OF CHANCE CATEGORY. PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
STRATUS IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...IT
IS BEGINNING TO ERODE ON THE WESTERN FLANK. EXPECT THE CIG TO
RAISE TO MVFR AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND SCATTER OUT
AROUND 21Z. KMCK IS A WILD CARD WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIVERGING
ON IF THE TERMINAL WILL SCATTER OUT. HAVE TAKEN AN OPTIMISTIC
APPROACH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND WILL SCATTER OUT MVFR CIGS AROUND
23Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND STAY GUSTY THROUGH REST OF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TS AT KMCK BETWEEN 02-05Z AHEAD OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINITY IN COVERAGE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...BAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
543 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...MAJORITY OF
FOG AND DRIZZLE IS CONFINED TO THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE AREA. AS YESTERDAY...THE HRRR IS CATCHING THIS VERY WELL.
SO REDUCED THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND DRIZZLE PER REASONING GIVEN
ABOVE. OTHERWISE...JUST ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WINDS/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
NEXT IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS DIGGING/SPLITTING OFF INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. AIR MASS AT LOW LEVELS
IS MOIST WITH VERY DRY AT MID LEVELS.
AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS DID FINE BUT TENDED TO HAVE THE UPPER
TROUGH/JET SEGMENT TO OUR WEST A LITTLE TO FAR TO THE EAST.
THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING WELL ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. OVER THE AREA MODELS DID NOT HAVE THE COOLER AIR OVER THE
STATE FAR ENOUGH WEST. WITH THIS AND OVERALL THE GFS AND CANADIAN
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET.
TODAY/TONIGHT...PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY WITH
MODEST PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD DEFINITELY SUPPORT WINDY. AS THE
DAY SHIFT BROUGHT UP...LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP THE FULL
POTENTIAL OF THE WIND FROM BEING REACHED. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT HAS COME IN AND NOW HOLDS ONTO THE CLOUDS EVEN LONGER AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN COOLER. SO AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY AND CONTINUE THE WINDY WORDING. THE LATEST NAM...RUC AND
HRRR SHOW CLEARING OCCURRING ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE CLOUDS HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN THE CENTER.
AND FROM PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE...THAT IS A REASONABLE SOLUTION. AS A
RESULT...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED OFF MAXES FROM EARLIER THINKING.
CURRENT DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE END OF THE SHIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME JET LIFT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT BUT THE BRUNT OF ITS LIFT IS FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST. BECAUSE OF THE COOLER MAXES NOW EXPECTED...
INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS AND CINH WILL BE MORE. GFS AND NAM
DEFINITELY SHOW THAT. ON TOP OF THIS COOLER STABLE LAYER...THE MODELS
BRING A VERY STRONG WARM/DRY LAYER ALOFT. AS A RESULT OF THIS HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 03Z WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEGINNING AT 06Z. THIS IS WHEN THE INHIBITION IS THE WEAKEST AND
WHEN THE FRONT STARTS MOVING THROUGH. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
SPOTTY WITH LITTLE TO NO THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT AND HIGH THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT. SO WILL PROBABLY BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN SLOWLY SLACKEN.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...PER COLLABORATION HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. FIRST WE ARE NOT THAT FAR REMOVED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. THERE HAS NOT BE A LOT OF CHANCE
TO DRY OUT WITH LITTLE SUNSHINE...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NOT A LOT
OF WIND. DRIER AIR DOES COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE MORNING. SO FOR THOSE REASONS
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCHING
THIS. 850 MB/2 METER/NWP SUPPORT GOING TOWARD A COOLER DAY. LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF COOL AIR UPSTREAM BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND
WILL GO TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND DID ADJUST DOWN SLIGHTLY.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS START OUT LIGHT IN THE EVENING AND THEN QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SO THE LOWS WILL BE EARLY.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
IN LATE IN THE DAY. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET A LITTLE TRICKY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION. ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS BY MONDAY...WITH NW FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
EASTERLY BL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD LIMIT
DAYTIME WARMING BOTH DAYS. I COOLED HIGH TEMPS TO UPPER 50S TUE/WED
IN THE EAST AND MID-UPPER 60S IN THE WEST AND SOUTH TO STAY WITHIN
COLLABORATION...HOWEVER THIS STILL MAY BE TOO WARM.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA NEAR THE STALLED FRONT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE
GREAT BASIN. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND GULF MOISTURE BUILDS NORTH
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVERSPREADING THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT...WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
BUILDING NORTH INTO THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE LOOKS TO BE
OVER SW KS...THOUGH A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CANT BE RULED OUT
FURTHER NORTH OVER CWA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS BECOMING A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NW KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE AREA IN LINE FOR DECENT RAINFALL.
SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF RUN-RUN AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...
I DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE POPS OUTSIDE OF CHANCE CATEGORY. PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
ANOTHER COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS. ENTIRE AREA COVERED WITH STRATUS
RIGHT WITH MAJORITY OF FOG AND DRIZZLE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF KGLD.
HRRR MODEL IS CATCHING THIS SCENARIO AND USED FOR THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION. IFR TO JUST ABOVE IFR EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER THAT. BY MID
AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE A
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF KGLD WITH THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TO
KMCK. SINCE DEVELOPMENT IS SPOTTY AND MUCH LATER IN THE
PERIOD...CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH ONLY A CB MENTION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1250 AM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
A SLOW MOVING FAIRLY BAROTROPIC CLOSED LOW WAS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS REGION THIS MORNING, HEADING TOWARD THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW DOMINATED MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS WITH LOW STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE LOW STRATUS IMPEDED DIURNAL WARMING SO MUCH THAT TEMPERATURES
HAD ONLY REACHED THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE LOW LEVEL
THINNING STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAKS, AND THUS SOME AREAS
OF SUN MIGHT DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS, FROM
AROUND SYRACUSE TO HUGOTON. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING WILL HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED, SO IT APPEARS THE CURRENT RUC MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TREND. AS DIURNAL COOLING DEVELOPS AGAIN THIS
EVENING, IT WOULD FOLLOW THAT THE STRATUS LAYER WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
EXPAND ONCE AGAIN GOING INTO TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT, WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE TENDENCY, THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN BE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY MILD, OR ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF
THE OVERNIGHT WILL THEN BECOME, FOG AND EVEN PERHAPS THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS THE LEAD
APPROACHING UPPER JET NOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN APPROACHES OUT
REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CROSS BARRIER
FLOW, SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT, INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
ADDITIONAL CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAY ACT TO FURTHER INHIBIT MIXING. MODEL
10M WINDS ARE GENERALLY FORECASTING NEAR 20 KNOTS OF SURFACE
SUSTAINED WINDS IN ACROSS THE LARGER PART OF WESTERN KANSAS, AND THE
GFSMOS IS EVEN STRONGER. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IS MOST
LIKELY TO BE SEEN ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER MODEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT IT EVEN OVER A LARGE PART OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES BECOME INCREASED ALONG A
DRYLINE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES (CLOSELY TIED TO THE COLORADO
LINE) IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING AS WELL AS STRONG
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE TENDENCY ACT TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY OVER WESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ARKANSAS EXITS OUR AREA TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SAID, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, WILL HAVE
16-20 PERCENT POPS IN OUR EASTERN CWA FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL
LINGER IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA, DUE MAINLY TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM OKLAHOMA AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT, AND BY
WEDNESDAY FARTHER NORTH TO OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE GFS MODEL IS A
LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT FOR NOW I LIKE THE SLOWER, MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
ECMWF MODEL. BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD BE BISECTING OUR CWA AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF FORMING IN THE
WARM SURFACE AIR AND WITH THE FRONT SERVING AS FOCUS BOUNDARY.
LOADED THE CREXTENDFCST_INIT PROCEDURE`S QPF, AND THE AMOUNTS SEEMED
QUITE HIGH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DECREASED THE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY QPF QUITE A BIT.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANOTHER IMPORTANT PART OF THIS PACKAGE. SUNDAY
MORNING LOOKS COLD ENOUGH SOME PATCHY FROST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR, AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOWN THE GEOGRAPHIC
DOWNSLOPE PATTERN SHOULD BRING MID 30S FOR MIN T`S IN OUR NORTHWEST
AND WEST. IF THE MODELS GET ANY COLDER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MODEL RUNS, COULD SEE A FROST ADVISORY NEEDED SOMEWHERE IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE NEARER TERM, FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WEST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST,
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MONDAY MORNING, DIP TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S TUESDAY MORNING, THEN REBOUND TO THE 45 TO 50F DEGREE RANGE BY
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT LOWER TO THE
MID 60S MONDAY, BEFORE WARMING UP IN OUR SOUTHWEST WED AND THUR INTO
THE LOWER 70S AS WARM FRONT BULGES NORTHWARD, WITH LOWER 60S HIGH IN
THE EASTERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
LOW LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS TO LIFR
AFTER 06Z AT GCK/DDC AND IFR AT HYS. VISBYS COULD ALSO DROP TO AS
LOW AS 1 MILE AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z AT GCK/HYS ALONG WITH SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO IFR THEN MVFR BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AND UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 49 65 37 67 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 45 63 36 67 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 45 63 38 69 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 48 65 38 69 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 50 64 37 67 / 20 0 0 0
P28 55 67 43 68 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
923 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND WEAKENS TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN SECTIONS DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE IL-IN-OH REGION
MOVES EAST. SOME HIGH RES MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW A LITTLE PRECIP
ECHOES IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FOR FAR WRN SECTIONS TOWARD
SUNRISE. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS SO
EXTREMELY DRY THAT NO PRECIP WOULD EVER MAKE TO THE SFC.
RE: FREEZE WARNING...SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 DEGF WARMER THAN SAME TIME LAST
NIGHT...WITH WINDS MORE NW. EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH NE AND ERN PORTIONS THE LAST TO DECOUPLE.
HOWEVER...DEW PTS ARE RUNNING DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT BY A GOOD 3-5
DEGF. SO AIRMASS IS DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT. ADD TO THIS...SCT-BKN
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AFTER 08Z...PER LATEST HRRR 3KM RUNS. PAST
EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT COME IN A TAD THICKER AND
REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOOKING AT SATL LOOPS...THINKING IS THE
CLOUDS WILL BE PRETTY SKIMPY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. SO BOTTOM
LINE IS I LIKE THE FREEZE WARNING WHERE IT IS AND WILL LEAVE IT.
SUNDAY...
ANOTHER DRY AND BREEZY DAY...MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPECT ACROSS THE CNRTL APLCNS WHICH WILL SEE HIGH CIRRUS COME IN
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NWLY WINDS WILL TAKE A UNTIL LATE MRNG TO
BEGIN GUSTING...THEN MIX DOWN 15-25KT GUSTS FOR SEVERAL HRS. THIS
WILL AGAIN CREATE RED FLAG AND ENHANCED FIRE THREATS FOR THE AREA
BUT ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST /THE NRN 2/3RDS OF
THE CWA/. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY...THOUGH DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN UPSLOPE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER RETROGRADING BACK OVER QUEBEC...DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING
THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE AND COLD UPPER LOW WILL SWING A SMALLER
UPPER VORT AROUND ITS BASE /SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/ MON INTO
TUE. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE COMING
WEEK /ALBEIT BRIEF AND LOW- QPF/. EVEN MORE PREVALENT THAN THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE WINDS ON MONDAY...BREEZY WLY WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. THE PRECIP
WILL THEN ARRIVE AND MOVE THRU LATER IN THE EVE/OVERNIGHT. BY
SUNRISE...PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA...THOUGH A RIBBON OF
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
OVERHEAD AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH LAST/BIG SLIDE TOWARD THE SOUTH BEFORE HEADING OFF THE
COAST...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE DOWN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON WED
AND OFF THE COAST INTO THU. THIS LAST BURST OF SWD MOVEMENT MAY
SLIDE PART OF THE COLD CORE LOW OVERHEAD OF WED. FALLING PRECIP
MAY BE SNOW/FROZEN AS IT REACHES THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT NEAR-SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO BE DRY ENOUGH NOT TO EVEN ALLOW PRECIP TO
REACH THE SURFACE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS WED.
THOUGH THE TROF AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...IT WILL STILL INFLUENCE THE MID ATLC W/ MORE DRY AND COOL
NWLY WINDS UNTIL THE WEEKEND. A WARMER RIDGE WILL BE ON THE WAY FROM
THE MS VLY BUT SLOW IN COMING. A LARGE AND INITIALLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS
LATE THIS COMING WEEK...BUT APPEARS WILL BE A MINOR FRONTAL PASSAGE
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MID-ATLC EARLY INTO THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT250 CIRRUS
LATE. WINDS WNW 5-10 KT FOR 02-03Z...THEN BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KT.
ON SUN...VFR WITH A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING...
WINDS GUSTING FROM THE WNW TO 22-24 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND SLIDE BACK ACROSS SERN CANADA FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION DAY-BY-DAY...UNTIL IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST MID WEEK. THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE PERIODICALLY
BREEZY LOW-LEVEL/SFC WINDS...SOME BRIEF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERIODS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MONDAY
WILL BE PARTICULARLY BREEZY...NOT ONLY W/ LOW LEVEL SHEAR BUT GUSTY
SFC WINDS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE A TIER
LESS GUSTY...THOUGH STILL SEEING OCCASIONAL +20KT GUSTS EACH AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE WATERS AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM.
A LARGE BUT FAIRLY DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SIT OVER SERN CANADA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE MORE THAN BREEZY AFTNS ON
TAP FOR THE MID-ATLC. POTENTIAL GALE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...THEN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...SATURDAY...WE HEARD OF SEVERAL BRUSH FIRES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...WITH ONE WILDFIRE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR THE
GREENE-MADISON COUNTY VA BORDER.
FOR SUNDAY...A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM MID- DAY SUNDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE CONVERTED THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR EASTER SUNDAY
BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ003>007-
009>011-013-014-502.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ003>005-501-
502.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
038>040-042-051>054-501-502-504.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ025>031-503-
504.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
055-502-504-506.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMZ
NEAR TERM...SMZ
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...GMS/SMZ
MARINE...GMS/SMZ
FIRE WEATHER...SMZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
859 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.UPDATE...DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE
WERE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. /27/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT TAF LOCATIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTH TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW
PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS 10-13Z
AROUND DAY BREAK SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHRA COULD OCCUR AFTER 20Z
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND W OF THE MS RIVER. /40/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
WEST AND SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. CURRENTLY A LARGE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH OUR CWA ON THE WESTERN FRINGES. RUC ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WERE INHIBITING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
OVER OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT. OUR DRY AIRMASS
WITH A PW OF A HALF INCH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING LEADING
TO TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR NORMAL AROUND 50 DEGREES AT MOST
SITES. SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A CYCLONE SPINNING
OVER MANITOBA WILL HELP DROP A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE MORNING AND INTO OUR CWA BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME CONVECTION NOTED ALONG IT. MODELS AGREE THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS OUR
CWA. MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PWS BARELY POOLING TO AN INCH. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP
OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS
AGREE THAT MOST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THE WEST WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN. WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE DELTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 1023MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE COOLER TREND OF NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...COOL SPOT BEING THE NE WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/UKMET SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
COMBINE FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THE NAM AND ECMWF
PLACE THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND SHOW NO DEVELOPMENT.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SO FOR
NOW HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MONDAY AFTN AND FOLLOW A DRIER TREND. ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER IN THE
WEST MAY HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST BUT
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. /22/
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY...THIS TIME ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL MOISTURE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING IS INDICATED
AS HIGHER PRESSURE AND NLY FLOW CONTINUE AT LOWER LEVELS BUT THE
REMNANTS OF A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE SUGGESTED. ONCE AGAIN
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
WRN/SRN ZONES.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE DURING THE DAY WED BUT WITH
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE EURO...BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY RIDGING A BIT
OVER THE AREA WED...HAVE CUT MEX MOS POPS FOR TUE NGT...WED AND WED
NIGHT TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
MODEL RUN TO RUN DISCREPANCIES STAND OUT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
PERIOD. BY THU THE GFS GENERALLY MAINTAINS MID/UPPER RIDGING WITH
POSSIBLE WAVES PUSHING THROUGH AS LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PREV RUN OF
THE EURO EDGED A HEALTHY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION THU WITH A STRONG SYSTEM APPROACHING THE ARKLAMISS REGION
FRIDAY. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE EURO HOWEVER HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
THE GFS SOLUTION...MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES BUT HOLDING ON TO
RIDGING OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND PIVOTING THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO
OUR NW. WILL FOLLOW MEX MOS FOR NOW WHICH PAINTS AREAS OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /03/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 53 80 53 79 / 1 7 8 6
MERIDIAN 48 80 53 79 / 0 6 7 6
VICKSBURG 50 81 52 78 / 1 14 9 7
HATTIESBURG 53 81 57 81 / 0 6 6 11
NATCHEZ 53 79 55 78 / 0 6 6 10
GREENVILLE 53 77 51 78 / 5 17 9 2
GREENWOOD 51 78 49 78 / 3 12 9 2
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
27/40/22/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT FRI APR 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC IS EXPERIENCING A LULL IN PRECIP AS THE INITIAL
SURGE OF PRECIP AS MOVED ON INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW....WHICH IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN KATL AND KAVL. THE SURFACE
LOW IS LESS OBVIOUS IN REGIONAL SURFACE OBS...BUT SHOULD BE
TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TO THE
NORTH...A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA...CROSSING NY/PA AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW INTO A DEEPER LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED... UPSLOPE ENHANCED DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND THAT HAS
DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE 850-700MB LOW....EXTENDING FROM KAVL TO NEAR
KINT OVER WESTERN NC. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS DEFORMATION
WEAKENING TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
BEGIN TO PHASE BY 12Z. IN ADDITION...SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR CAN BE
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OVER OH/IN..PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KY.
THUS...WHILE WE EXPECT PRECIP WITH FILL IN ACROSS THE CWA...MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE I-40/I-85 CORRIDOR BASED ON THE HRRR AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE AFTER BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY...SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR BEHIND THE PRECIP SHIELD...AND THE
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD BE CLEAR BY 21Z. WE WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
ENDING POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. IF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY OVER COASTAL
PLAIN...HIGHS MAY END UP BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THAN ALONG AND EAST OF I-95...RANGING FROM 61-64 FROM EAST
TO WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE
MINIMUM TEMPS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. MOST
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVES READINGS OF 34-39 AREAWIDE...COOLEST IN
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE... AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOCATIONS THAT DO HIT 32 DEGREES MAY ONLY DO SO FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED...SHELTERED AREAS...AND
WHILE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES
OR GREATER...MODELS COULD BE UNDERREPRESENTED NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
AS MANY AREAS OF SEEN A HALF INCH OF RAIN MORE TONIGHT. WE WILL
FORECAST LOWS OF 34 TO 38...COLDEST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN WILL BUILD SLIGHT EASTWARD
SATURDAY...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION EVIDENT IN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FIELDS. WE WILL FOLLOW NAM MOS FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH
UPPER 60S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY EVENING...AND MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER LIGHTLY STIRRED DESPITE A WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND COLDEST IN THE EASTERN CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY COOL NW FLOW
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OVER MUCH OF NE NORTH AMERICA
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL DELIVER A COUPLE SHOTS OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE NW FLOW AND A
MORE OPEN WAVE PATTERN (THAN ONE THATS CUT OFF) SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME.
LOOKING DAY TO DAY...ON SUNDAY A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES SE.
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GIVEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE BEING WELL TO OUR NORTH...SO EXPECT EXPECT FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING TO THE
MID 70S FOR HIGHS.
ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE CUTOFF OVER QUEBEC AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.
HIGHS MONDAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH DECENT CAA ON TUESDAY IN ITS WAKE. DEEP NW FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT A 36 HOUR PERIOD OF TEMPS ABOUT 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST TEMPS MAY BE EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE MID-UPR 30S. HOWEVER
WITH SOME WIND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT...FROST POTENTIAL COULD
BE LIMITED. FINALLY BY LATE THURSDAY WE`LL SEE THE PATTERN MODIFY
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND SOME MODERATING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FINALLY ITS WORTH NOTING THAT WE`VE SEEN A LOT OF SWINGS IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH. IF THE MODEL TRENDS SUCH AS THOSE
SUGGESTED IN THE 05/12Z ECMWF WERE TO REEMERGE...WE COULD SEE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND COLDER TEMPS
LASTING LONGER THROUGH THE WEEK THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...
CEILINGS ARE HOLDING ABOVE 3K FT AT NEARLY ALL OBSERVING SITES THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS (AROUND KFAY). RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SC IS MOSTLY FOCUSED NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER...AND WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT KFAY THROUGH
15Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH...A
NARROW RAINBAND BETWEEN KGSO AND KRDU WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
TOWARD KRDU AND KRWI THROUGH 15Z. DRIER AIR IS PRESSING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE RAINBAND TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. THUS...ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
WITH VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT KRDU AND KRWI.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING...RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST...LINGERING LONGEST FROM
KFAY TO KRWI UNTIL 15-18Z. BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15KT AND GUST INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TOWARD 10KT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOC/W UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN OF DRY NW FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...NMP
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT FRI APR 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC IS EXPERIENCING A LULL IN PRECIP AS THE INITIAL
SURGE OF PRECIP AS MOVED ON INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW....WHICH IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN KATL AND KAVL. THE SURFACE
LOW IS LESS OBVIOUS IN REGIONAL SURFACE OBS...BUT SHOULD BE
TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TO THE
NORTH...A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA...CROSSING NY/PA AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW INTO A DEEPER LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED... UPSLOPE ENHANCED DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND THAT HAS
DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE 850-700MB LOW....EXTENDING FROM KAVL TO NEAR
KINT OVER WESTERN NC. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS DEFORMATION
WEAKENING TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
BEGIN TO PHASE BY 12Z. IN ADDITION...SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR CAN BE
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OVER OH/IN..PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KY.
THUS...WHILE WE EXPECT PRECIP WITH FILL IN ACROSS THE CWA...MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE I-40/I-85 CORRIDOR BASED ON THE HRRR AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE AFTER BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY...SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR BEHIND THE PRECIP SHIELD...AND THE
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD BE CLEAR BY 21Z. WE WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
ENDING POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. IF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY OVER COASTAL
PLAIN...HIGHS MAY END UP BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THAN ALONG AND EAST OF I-95...RANGING FROM 61-64 FROM EAST
TO WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE
MINIMUM TEMPS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. MOST
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVES READINGS OF 34-39 AREAWIDE...COOLEST IN
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE... AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOCATIONS THAT DO HIT 32 DEGREES MAY ONLY DO SO FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED...SHELTERED AREAS...AND
WHILE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES
OR GREATER...MODELS COULD BE UNDERREPRESENTED NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
AS MANY AREAS OF SEEN A HALF INCH OF RAIN MORE TONIGHT. WE WILL
FORECAST LOWS OF 34 TO 38...COLDEST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN WILL BUILD SLIGHT EASTWARD
SATURDAY...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION EVIDENT IN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FIELDS. WE WILL FOLLOW NAM MOS FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH
UPPER 60S WEST TO MID 60S EAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY EVENING...AND MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER LIGHTLY STIRRED DESPITE A WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND COLDEST IN THE EASTERN CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY COOL NW FLOW
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OVER MUCH OF NE NORTH AMERICA
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL DELIVER A COUPLE SHOTS OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE NW FLOW AND A
MORE OPEN WAVE PATTERN (THAN ONE THATS CUT OFF) SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME.
LOOKING DAY TO DAY...ON SUNDAY A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES SE.
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GIVEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE BEING WELL TO OUR NORTH...SO EXPECT EXPECT FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING TO THE
MID 70S FOR HIGHS.
ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE CUTOFF OVER QUEBEC AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY...BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.
HIGHS MONDAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH DECENT CAA ON TUESDAY IN ITS WAKE. DEEP NW FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT A 36 HOUR PERIOD OF TEMPS ABOUT 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST TEMPS MAY BE EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE MID-UPR 30S. HOWEVER
WITH SOME WIND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT...FROST POTENTIAL COULD
BE LIMITED. FINALLY BY LATE THURSDAY WE`LL SEE THE PATTERN MODIFY
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND SOME MODERATING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FINALLY ITS WORTH NOTING THAT WE`VE SEEN A LOT OF SWINGS IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH. IF THE MODEL TRENDS SUCH AS THOSE
SUGGESTED IN THE 05/12Z ECMWF WERE TO REEMERGE...WE COULD SEE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND COLDER TEMPS
LASTING LONGER THROUGH THE WEEK THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS GA/SC. WITH ONE LARGE AREA OF RAIN
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OF KRDU AND KRWI...THERE WILL BE LULL PRECIP
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE RAIN
WILL FILL BACK ION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY 09Z. OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...UPSLOPE DRIVE RAINFALL IS DRIFT EAST FROM THE
FOOTHILLS TOWARD THE TRIAD...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF KINT/KGSO. CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD ABOVE 3K
FT...EXCEPT FOR IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS (AROUND KFAY)
AND IN AREAS WHERE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURS. A STEADY 5-10KT WIND WILL
STEADILY INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE...AND THIS
BREEZE WILL HELP TO ALSO KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 6SM OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER
RAIN.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING...RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST...LINGERING LONGEST FROM
KFAY TO KRWI UNTIL 15-18Z. BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15KT AND GUST INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TOWARD 10KT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOC/W UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN OF DRY NW FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...NMP
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
804 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT MONDAY. A COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATED...
ADJ DWPTS THIS EVE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN
COLUMN TDY WILL MOISTEN UP AT THE TOP THIS EVE WITH INFLUX OF
HI CLDS. INDEED RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF NAM AND GFS BRING CLDS
QUICKLY IN FROM W THIS EVE. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS MDLS MAY BE AN HR
TOO SLOW...BUT GENERALLY HANDLING IT WELL. THIS PRESENTS A TMP
CONUNDRUM OVERNIGHT AND THUS FROST POTENTIAL. LAMP GUIDANCE CONT
TO SUGGEST FROST WILL BE HARD TO COME BY TONIGHT FOR MOST GIVEN
HI CLDS RACING E. DO THINK A FAST DROP IN TMPS EARLY THIS EVE IS
IN STORE BEFORE LEVELING OFF AS HI CLDS COME IN...WITH SFC DWPT
DEPRESSIONS REMAINING LARGE OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT DESPITE SOME
MODEST RECOVERY. ADJ HRLY TMPS UP BASED ON LAMP GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS 18Z NAM AND GFS WHICH ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THEIR
RESPECTIVE 12Z RUNS. WILL LEAVE FROST ADV AS IS THOUGH AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT THIS EVE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...TO KEEP CLEAR
SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH 08Z...STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND CALM FLOW.
THIS SCENARIO WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF FROST AS TEMPERATURES DROP
UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THEIR DEWPOINTS....EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S LOWLANDS...TO THE MID TEENS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS IN QUESTION. NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A
STARVED MOISTURE COLD FRONT. THE THICKER THIS CLOUD DECK BECOMES
AFTER 08Z...THE MORE PROBABLE THERE IS TO SHUT DOWN THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIN CIRRUS FROM 08-12Z ALLOWING HEAT RELEASE AND
THE ASSOCIATED AREAS OF FROST. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A FROST
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF WV AND MEIGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OH.
WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT CONCERNING THE
FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S LOWLANDS...TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ON EASTER SUNDAY MAX TEMPERATURES PER
CLOUD COVER AND NOT CHANGE IN AIRMASS JUST YET. &&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NAM POINTS TO WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE JUST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE MAIN ENERGY WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST IN NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS
FRONT DRY...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO ADD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE EVENT NEARS. AFTER PASSAGE...NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW PROVIDES
SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE OMEGA AND WARRANTS THE LOW END
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
A DEEP CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS/QUEBEC...AND WILL DOMINATE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
FOR OUR AREA. WILL SEE A PIECE OF ENERGY DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR MONDAY...NECESSITATING HIGHER
POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A MUCH
COOLER PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEAK IN LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT... BRINGING AN END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES.
A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW...CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA MONDAY
MORNING WILL MEANDER SOUTHWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...IMPACTING OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN A DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN EDGES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEPENDING
ON LINGERING CLOUDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO A FROST/FREEZE SITUATION
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THEN DIVERGE SOME FOR AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HI CLDS WILL MOVE
IN BY 06Z AMID LIGHT FLOW SFC AND ALOFT. DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU
ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT AND AN
INCREASE IN SPEEDS WHICH WILL GUST 20 TO 30KTS FROM NW IN AFTN. A
BAND OF POST FRONTAL LOW END VFR CLDS POSSIBLE IN AFTN AS WELL.
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 04/08/12
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ006>011-
013>020-026>037-039-040.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
738 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND AN EVEN WEAKER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP COOLER AIR OVER THE
REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
THESE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS LOWER DECK MOVES IN. RADAR
IS SHOWING SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO WESTERN INDIANA WELL AHEAD OF A
BOUNDARY THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE
LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ONLY SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST. JUST STARTED THEM EARLIER. WITH A
SOMEWHAT QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT BE ABLE TO FALL QUITE AS MUCH. SO BUMPED UP LOWS SLIGHTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EAST...SOME SPRINKLES WILL MOVE WITH IT AS
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNFAVORABLE FOR SUPPORTING MORE THAN THIS.
WIND PICKING UP IN THE DAY WILL BE MORE NOTABLE EVEN IF AFTERNOON
READINGS TOP INTO THE LOWER 60S. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST AND COOL ADVECTION WILL KEEP SIMILAR HIGHS IN
THE 60-65 RANGE WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. OUTLYING
AREAS WHERE WINDS GO CALM THESE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SEE SOME PATCHY
FROST DEVELOPING.
IN THE COOLER NW FLOW...A WEAK S/W AND SURFACE INFLECTION WILL
CREATE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOT OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THIS MAY
ALSO BE DUELING AGAINST A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER FOR A MORE ISOLATED
SHOWER OR WIDESPREAD SPRINKLE EXPERIENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE H5
LOW...CUT OFF JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. SVRL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PART OF THE
PATTERN...BUT DIFFER WITH SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST AT H8 AND PRODUCES THE MOST INSTABILITY SHRA TUE AND WED.
THE OTHER EXTENDED MODELS ARE DRIER. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ENUF COLD AIR ALOFT FOR SOME SHRA TUE AND WED. KEPT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW CHC POPS IN THE NE WED...TAPERING DOWN TO A
DRY FORECAST BY THE TIME YOU REACH THE S AND SW. ON WED KEPT JUST A
20 POP IN THE NE.
THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND WORKS E TO THE E COAST BY THU....ALLOWING H5
RIDGING AND SFC HIGH TO BEGIN TO TAKE CONTROL. THE SFC HIGH CENTERS
ITSELF OVER THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO SLIP E ON FRIDAY.
THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE 06Z GFS WAS VERY
QUICK IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND SPILLING CONVECTION INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF HELD THE RIDGE
STRONG...KEEPING THE CONVECTION LOCKED OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THE 12Z
GFS HAS COME IN TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. IT HOLDS THE H5
RIDGE MUCH STRONGER...BUT DOES BRING SOME WARM FRONTAL PCPN ACROSS
THE WRN OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARM SECTORING THE FA FOR
THE WEEKEND. SO KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL HOLD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS TUE AND WEDNESDAY PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S TUE AND LOWER TO MID 50S WED. A GRADUAL WARM UP BEGINS
ON THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH KICKS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE
MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHOWER. BUT THIS WILL BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE NO IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES. APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH A BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST...BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. A FEW HOURS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
GUSTY...AT OR BELOW 25 KT. ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
310 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN UPPER TROUGH CROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A STRONG WAVE NOW CROSSING THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE STRADDLING THE CWA WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW...GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING...AND COOLER TEMPS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING. RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS STRETCHING TOWARD NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA.
TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT CONVERGING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. LATEST
RUC SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG EXTENDING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WITH DEEP SHEAR THROUGH THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS HAVE
ALREADY PRODUCED MODERATE SIZE HAIL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM OR TWO TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE RADAR SHOWS SOME STORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS HAVE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS TODAY...BUT HAVE FAILED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE PLAINS CLOSER TO THE BLACK HILLS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DRY LINE. SO WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING TILL 900 PM MDT EVEN FOR THE FOOTHILLS. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...ENDING
THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
REMAIN AT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT GIVEN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO HAVE EXTENDING THE ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA SATURDAY AS IT
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LINGERING PRECIP
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS. EXCEPT
FOR THE GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY BRINGING MORE SUNSHINE AND WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10
TO 20 MPH...THOUGH WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA COULD BE
STRONGER. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.
.EXTENDED...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS VERY COMPLICATED GIVEN A FRACTURING
WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES/UNKNOWN POSITIONING OF THE JAMES BAY
VORTEX/AND THE DEGREE OF WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING. FORECAST MODELS
TAKE A SPLIT PER DETAILS MID NEXT WEEK ON...WITH CLEAR DIVISION IN
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A DEEP HUDSON BAY
VORTEX WITH BLOCKED DOWNSTREAM FLOW WOULD CERTAINLY OFFER MUCH
COOLER THERMAL FIELDS INTO THE AREA...AND THE GEM/ECMWF SUPPORT A
SOLUTION IN THIS DIRECTION GIVEN A WESTERN BIASED EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN TYPICAL POOR HANDLING OF HUDSON/JAMES BAY VORTEX
POSITIONING...WITH FORECAST MODELS TENDING TO BE BIASED TOO FAR EAST
/ESP THE GFS/ WILL SIDE HEAVIER TOWARD AN ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION. THIS
CONCERN COMBINED WITH SIGNALS FOR CONTINUED EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SUPPORTS THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD ATTM...UNTIL TRENDS ARE ESTABLISHED. ALSO RETAINED POPS
PER THE THUR SYSTEM. TYPICALLY POORLY HANDLED FRACTURING MID LEVEL
IMPULSE CERTAINLY IS FROM BEING ASCERTAINED ATTM...WITH FORECAST
CONSISTENCY PREFERRED. CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE A RAIN EVENT ALTHOUGH
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM. HENCE...ADDED A
SNOW MENTION...ESP IN LIGHT OF ECMWF/GEM THERMAL FIELDS.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OUTSIDE WED NIGHT-THUR ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN
THE PERIOD. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL VEER NW BY EARLY
EVENING WITH A FROPA...AS A GENERAL TREND...REMAINING GUSTY. WINDS
WILL BE VERY TRICKY OVER NE WY...INCLUDING GCC GIVEN A STALLED FRONT
IN PLACE. HAVE RETAINED VRBL MENTION THERE ATTM...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
OF BOUNDARY PLACEMENT. GUIDANCE INDICATED A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THERE. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT
THE SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. WILL
MONITOR. OTHERWISE...SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING RAP. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT GCC THIS EVENING GIVEN A PERIOD SNOW SHOWERS THERE. HAVE
TRENDED TO IFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
BENNETT-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-HERMOSA FOOT
HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR BADLANDS AREA-SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR BUTTE-HARDING-NORTHERN
MEADE CO PLAINS-PERKINS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CROOK AND WESTON COUNTIES-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1129 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRIFTING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW IS BRINGING ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS TO MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.
FORECAST PACKAGE OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TODAY INCLUDING INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA GIVEN THE BEST DYNAMICS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEING OVER THAT AREA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH THE
LATEST OBS SHOWING COOLER AIR/NORTHWEST WINDS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WYOMING. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN
THE PERIOD. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL VEER NW BY EARLY
EVENING WITH A FROPA...AS A GENERAL TREND...REMAINING GUSTY. WINDS
WILL BE VERY TRICKY OVER NE WY...INCLUDING GCC GIVEN A STALLED FRONT
IN PLACE. HAVE RETAINED VRBL MENTION THERE ATTM...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
OF BOUNDARY PLACEMENT. GUIDANCE INDICATED A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THERE. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT
THE SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. WILL
MONITOR. OTHERWISE...SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING RAP. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT GCC THIS EVENING GIVEN A PERIOD SNOW SHOWERS THERE. HAVE
TRENDED TO IFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM MDT FRI APR 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN
WYOMING...WHILE HIGH LINGERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER
VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...WHILE TROF PUSHES
INTO THE ROCKIES. INITIAL WAVE AHEAD OF THE TROF HAS PRODUCED SOME
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN CWA.
FOR TODAY...SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING...PUSHING
INTO WRN ND/FAR NERN SD THIS EVENING WHILE UPPER TROF SHIFTS
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL STILL DEVELOP OVER
OUR AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NWRN CWA CLOSER TO THE LOW...AND
OVER S CTRL THIS EVE WHERE SECONDARY WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. LATER TONIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY OVER
WRN CWA. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA WILL BE WINDS WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS SFC LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST. HAVE
UPPED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFT/EARLY EVE AND WILL PULL
ADVISORY FURTHER WEST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATER TONIGHT AS
LOW LIFTS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG.
ON SATURDAY...A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORN OVER FAR NWRN CWA. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIRMASS WORKS ITS
WAY IN BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW...THOUGH WINDS WILL TAPER LATE DAY INTO THE EVE.
FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...AND BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS TO THE REGION. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY IN LIFTING A STRONG AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROF ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW
STRONG THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS THE TROF
APPROACHES AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL KEEP THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. MINIMAL COLD AIR IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THUS...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN
LIQUID FORM.
FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES FROM WYOMING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE AREA WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO THE MID
20S. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT. THE DRIEST AREA WILL AGAIN BE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
BENNETT-BUTTE-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-HARDING-
HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO
PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-SHANNON-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-ZIEBACH.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR BADLANDS AREA-SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CROOK AND WESTON COUNTIES-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1033 PM PDT Thu Apr 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will remain under a cool and unstable air mass
which will promote scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms through Friday. A break in the active weather
pattern will occur this weekend and early next week...before more
unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Radar data this evening clearly indicated a low centered
southwest of Moses Lake near Mattawa. Showers for the rest of this
evening will be focused around the periphery of this low with the
Moses Lake and Wenatchee areas in closest proximity to the low.
Satellite imagery shows the low to be nearly stationary with
models showing potentially a slight drift south overnight. This
will keep the Moses Lake and Wenatchee areas in close proximity
with HRRR and MM5 WRF-GFS showing showers persisting into the
overnight hours although becoming more isolated. Thus the forecast
has been updated to increase precipitation chances especially in
Wenatchee and Blewett Pass given current radar trends. Meanwhile
models show moisture beginning to be drawn northward towards
Central Idaho overnight as a short wave moving into southern
Idaho. Models have backed off a little bit with the northern
extent of this with precip likely remaining over the Clearwaters
overnight, and then moving into the Camas Prairie area Friday
morning possibly as far north as Lookout Pass. Precipitation
chances were modified over Southeast Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle through Friday morning to account for this timing.
Elsewhere for this evening showers have dwindled with the loss of
daytime heating with dry conditions expected for the rest of
tonight. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: A cold unstable upper level trough will remain over the
area through Friday. Scattered showers this evening over SE
Washington will moisten the boundary layer and west winds is
expected to advect stratus into KPUW btwn 11-13z. Meanwhile light
winds and moist conditions at the surface will allow patchy fog to
develop near lakes and rivers in NE Washington and the N Idaho
Panhandle between 11z-16z. Thus BCFG was maintained for KSFF and
KCOE. Other locations should continue with VFR conditions. The
atmosphere will become unstable again 18z Fri - 03z Sat with cumulus
buildups and isolated thunderstorms containing small hail. Chances
of any one storm moving over a TAF site is very low so used CB cloud
group to address thunder potential. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 30 46 31 51 33 60 / 10 40 20 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 29 42 31 51 31 60 / 10 50 30 10 0 0
Pullman 29 43 30 50 32 62 / 20 50 30 0 0 0
Lewiston 34 46 33 57 37 67 / 20 40 20 0 0 0
Colville 28 48 31 54 32 60 / 10 50 30 10 0 0
Sandpoint 28 41 30 49 29 57 / 10 50 40 10 0 0
Kellogg 27 38 28 48 29 58 / 20 80 60 10 0 0
Moses Lake 28 53 29 57 35 65 / 40 20 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 33 52 32 54 36 61 / 60 20 10 0 0 0
Omak 30 53 30 55 33 61 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CONDITIONS FOR EASTER
SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TAP GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ARE
PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A CORRIDOR BETWEEN A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH MANITOBA. 07.18Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IF
ANY 0-3KM MUCAPE PRESENT WITH NO UPWARD TREND EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MEANS THAT THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER DEVELOP. THIS COLD FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND END THE THREAT OF
THESE SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS WELL WITH ANY POST-
FRONTAL CUMULUS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT DISSIPATING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO EASTER SUNDAY AND WHAT KIND OF CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW
TONIGHT WITH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING BACK IN AS A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WHICH WILL CREATE STEEP SURFACE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
07.12Z NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS
BEING DRY ADIABATIC FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700MB BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM SITES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MAIN
QUESTION BEING HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BE FOR WINDS AND DEW
POINTS. DESPITE THE WELL MIXED PROFILE ENCOURAGES SOME GUSTINESS
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY
WEAK. 07.12Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER UP TO
AROUND 900MB WITH WINDS THERE BETWEEN 20 TO 30KTS. WITH NOT MUCH
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...THINKING THAT WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THIS 20
TO 30KT RANGE AND NOT TAP INTO THE HIGHER WINDS FURTHER ALOFT AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO MIX OUT AS
WELL...BUT AGAIN IT MAINLY DEPENDS ON HOW DEEP WE ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO. THIS COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO A DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER DAY TOMORROW TO WHERE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. FOR MORE
DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS AFD.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TOMORROW IS WITH SHOWER CHANCES AS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. 500-300MB PV ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON RIGHT AS PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING LEADS TO THE DEEP MIXING. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO
LEAD TO SOME COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WHICH IN TURN DEVELOPS
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY. IF THIS INSTABILITY WOULD
BE A LITTLE HIGHER THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A THREAT FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS VERY MARGINAL
TO EVEN GET LIGHTNING. THUS...WILL NOT BE MENTIONING IN THE HWO
OR OTHER PRODUCTS. AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT COME THROUGH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR.
A COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SECOND COLD
FRONT AS THE TROUGH STALLS OUT OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FORCING FROM THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES FOR MONDAY...SO
HAVE KEPT THEM DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE NEED FOR FREEZE WARNINGS STARTING
TUESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE FOR A HARD
FREEZE ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
WITH THE STACKED LOW SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AS
WELL WITH THE CORE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD
SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS LIKELY AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. THUS...THE NEED WILL BE THERE FOR ADDITIONAL
FREEZE WARNINGS WITH THE EARLY VEGETATION GROWTH THIS SPRING.
BEYOND THIS THE MAIN FEATURE IS WITH THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING
THAT TAKES SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS...DIFFERENCES
ARISE BETWEEN THE 07.12Z GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARD TO WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS HAD BEEN THE
FASTER MODEL THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH BRINGING THIS PRECIPITATION
IN...BUT NOW THE ECMWF HAS JUMPED IT AND IS NOW THE FAST ONE WITH
RAIN GETTING IN THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE ALL RAIN AS IT COMES IN AS WELL...SO HAVE
DROPPED THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FROM THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
600 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
THE COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT EAST OF KRST/KLSE...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH...BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS POINT TO DEEP MIXING BY 18Z...WITH MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
SUGGESTING GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 MPH AT KRST. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
ISN/T THAT TIGHT PER LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT SUBSIDENCE IS STRONG IN
THE LOWEST LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN
EFFECT FROM 1 PM THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....HALBACH
LONG TERM......HALBACH
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
555 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
230 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY...DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDWEST/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION...INTO WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CANADA. EAST/SOUTHEAST COOL
AND DRY OUTFLOW FROM THE HIGH KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20 PERCENT RANGE.
06.12Z NCEP NAM/GFS AS WELL AS A FEW OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS
SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY.
NAM/GFS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF/GEM STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE HIGH MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN/IA
BY DAYBREAK. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL RESULT OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH ANY RAIN REMAINING WELL WEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO A FEW LOWER 40S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.
MODELS STILL SHOW DIMINISHING 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER 500-300MB PV ADVECTION REMAINING NORTH
OF US. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL...STILL THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT WITH RAINFALL
OF A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH. BASED ON THESE SIGNALS...WENT WITH
GENERAL 40-50 POPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH 60/LIKELY POPS ACROSS TAYLOR
AND CLARK COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE BETTER PV-ADVECTION. APPEARS THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. CAPE IS MINIMAL WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO CONTINUED
THE THUNDERLESS FORECAST AS WELL.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE DEEP LOW MOVING TOWARD
HUDSON BAY CANADA WHILE A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
THROUGH NORTHERN MN/WI. NAM/GFS SHOW A FEW INTERESTING THINGS
HAPPENING WITH THIS SCENARIO: FIRST IS A NOSE OF 925MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 9-13C RANGE. SECONDLY...DEEP MIXING INDICATED BY BUFKIT DATA
WITH MIXING ALMOST 700MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIXING DRIER/HIGHER
WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL...HAVE
INCREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS LATER IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO LOWERED DEW POINTS SOME WITH THE DRIER AIR MIXING
DOWN. THIS HAS CAUSED AN INCREASE CONCERN IN THE AREA OF FIRE
WEATHER. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED A SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S
NORTH OF I-94 TO THE LOWER MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OOZING INTO THE REGION. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WHICH WILL ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR AS HIGHS TOP OFF ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
230 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
06.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ARE AT ODDS IN HANDLING OF
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND BOTTOM LINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS //WHICH IS SHOWING A BIT MORE RUN-RUN
CONSISTENCY// TAKES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND MOVES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW BRINGS RAIN INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND WANTS TO DIG THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEEPING US HIGH AND DRY. WILL
GO FOR A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW WHICH SPREADS SMALL 20-30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
CHILLY WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE 50S
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON POSSIBLE
FREEZE HEADLINES MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...
555 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...LIKELY MOVING ACROSS KRST NEAR 21Z AND KLSE NEAR 00Z SAT.
MODELS POINT TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER SATURATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MVFR CIGS. WILL KEEP ABOVE FOR
NOW. IN ADDITION...A BROKEN LINE OF -SHRA APPEARS LIKELY...AND WILL
ADD MENTION TO TAFS. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO...SO
DON/T EXPECT ANY THUNDER.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MIXING
PROMOTING SOME GUSTS AHEAD...AND ESPECIALLY POST THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY
230 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
BREEZY WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20-25 PERCENT
RANGE WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN SUNDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....DAS
LONG TERM......DAS
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
247 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. VERY QUIET DAY SO FAR WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S LAKESIDE TO THE MIDDLE 50S OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LOOKING UPSTREAM...STRONG TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES IS CREATING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY FEW PRECIP REPORTS WITHIN THE MOISTURE CHANNEL AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH...THOUGH THERE WERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLIER.
WITH A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS IN PLACE...FIRST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
FREEZE HEADLINES...THEN PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TO
INDIANA AND OHIO BY 12Z SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING THROUGH THE COLUMN AND
A VERY DRY AIRMASS SUPPORTS CONTINUING GOING CLEAR TONIGHT THOUGH
LOWS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD...THANKS TO WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS AND
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. BUT
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS TEMPS FALLING AT OR BELOW 28 DEGREES FROM
EASTERN VILAS/ONEIDA TO NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTIES. WILL ISSUE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
SATURDAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...BUT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
STARTING ROUGHLY LATE IN THE MORNING AND THEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS RATHER BEEFY...CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT DOES NOT. INSTABILITY IS NOT THERE EITHER...AND
MODIFYING NAM SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOWS AROUND 12 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE
DUE TO A WARM LAYER CENTERED APPROX AT AROUND 650MB. WITH
SATURATION ONLY OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT A 150MB LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND
700MB...THINK WILL SEE A SOMEWHAT NARROW BAND OF SCT TO BKN SHOWER
COVERAGE. WILL ONLY HAVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF INCH OF QPF...SO NOT
EXPECTING A BIG WASH OUT TO RUIN OUTDOOR PLANS. TEMPS WILL COOL
BEHIND THE FRONT ONCE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER ARRIVE. HIGHS
WILL REACH FROM AROUND 60 WEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EAST.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...PCPN TRENDS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON EASTER SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROF WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS (HIGH POP/LOW
QPF EVENT) FOR THE EVENING...BUT REMOVED ALL PCPN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING (750-700 MB)...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT WARMER...DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...DROPPED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE...AND BOOSTED WIND GUSTS
TO 30 TO 35 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH
THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON EASTER SUNDAY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MORE DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
TO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE HIGH OVER
THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS SLIDES IT SLOWLY TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID-AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE FEW TO
SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND CIGS LOWERING FROM
AROUND 5500 FT DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013.
&&
$$
MPC/KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
230 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY...DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDWEST/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION...INTO WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CANADA. EAST/SOUTHEAST COOL
AND DRY OUTFLOW FROM THE HIGH KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20 PERCENT RANGE.
06.12Z NCEP NAM/GFS AS WELL AS A FEW OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS
SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY.
NAM/GFS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF/GEM STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE HIGH MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN/IA
BY DAYBREAK. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL RESULT OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH ANY RAIN REMAINING WELL WEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO A FEW LOWER 40S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.
MODELS STILL SHOW DIMINISHING 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER 500-300MB PV ADVECTION REMAINING NORTH
OF US. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL...STILL THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT WITH RAINFALL
OF A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH. BASED ON THESE SIGNALS...WENT WITH
GENERAL 40-50 POPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH 60/LIKELY POPS ACROSS TAYLOR
AND CLARK COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE BETTER PV-ADVECTION. APPEARS THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. CAPE IS MINIMAL WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO CONTINUED
THE THUNDERLESS FORECAST AS WELL.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE DEEP LOW MOVING TOWARD
HUDSON BAY CANADA WHILE A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
THROUGH NORTHERN MN/WI. NAM/GFS SHOW A FEW INTERESTING THINGS
HAPPENING WITH THIS SCENARIO: FIRST IS A NOSE OF 925MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 9-13C RANGE. SECONDLY...DEEP MIXING INDICATED BY BUFKIT DATA
WITH MIXING ALMOST 700MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIXING DRIER/HIGHER
WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL...HAVE
INCREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS LATER IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO LOWERED DEW POINTS SOME WITH THE DRIER AIR MIXING
DOWN. THIS HAS CAUSED AN INCREASE CONCERN IN THE AREA OF FIRE
WEATHER. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED A SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S
NORTH OF I-94 TO THE LOWER MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OOZING INTO THE REGION. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WHICH WILL ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR AS HIGHS TOP OFF ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
230 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
06.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ARE AT ODDS IN HANDLING OF
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND BOTTOM LINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS //WHICH IS SHOWING A BIT MORE RUN-RUN
CONSISTENCY// TAKES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND MOVES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW BRINGS RAIN INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND WANTS TO DIG THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEEPING US HIGH AND DRY. WILL
GO FOR A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW WHICH SPREADS SMALL 20-30 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF CHILLY WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE 50S BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON POSSIBLE
FREEZE HEADLINES MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
1225 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
QUIET CONDITIONS TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS GOING INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN COMES IN
TOMORROW MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON
THE INCREASE AS A RESULT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT RST AND LSE SHOW A
MOISTENING UP OF THE 5KFT TO 8KFT LAYER IN THE MORNING WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS GETTING INTO RST LATE IN THE MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE TIMING OF
THEM GETTING INTO RST AROUND 16Z AND LSE AT 18Z. NOT MUCH...IF
ANY...INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY
230 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
BREEZY WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20-25 PERCENT
RANGE WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN SUNDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION.......HALBACH
FIRE WEATHER...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
102 AM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A HUDSON BAY
HIGH ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LOW
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND CREATED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF BKN
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. BUT OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY HAS
WANED SINCE THEN AND CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS NOW EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
TONIGHT...FREEZE HEADLINES ARE THE FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TONIGHT...HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SINK TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY MORNING.
BEFORE THIS OCCURS...0-1KM AGL FLOW WILL BE 15-20KTS OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EVENING SO
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL OFF INITIALLY. BUT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND
BL WINDS BECOME 5KTS OR LESS BY 09Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MANITOWOC AND STURGEON BAY FELL TO 32 AND 30 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY
LAST NIGHT...AND WILL BE OFF TO A COLDER START THIS EVENING THAN
LAST EVENING. WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT...TEMPS DO NOT HAVE MUCH
TO FALL FOR AREAS IN THE FREEZE WATCH TO REACH FREEZE WARNING
CRITERIA (TEMP OF 28F). SO WILL UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH TO A
FREEZE WARNING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT
THE COLD SPOTS...TO AROUND 30F NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
FOR FRIDAY. WITH SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
BY SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. 925MB TEMPS OF 8C OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND 4C OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN CALLS FOR HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S WEST TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EAST.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS
ARE LINGERING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN PCPN TRENDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
A HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL BE EDGING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
LINGERING DRY AIR...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLED WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A HARD FREEZE WILL BE ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE MIN TEMPS SHOULD
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PCPN TRENDS...AND SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS
WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF GRB CWA SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON SAT AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVG. STABILITY INDICES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...
AND AFTER COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
IN OUR NW COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC/NE WI. COOL NORTH
FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD VISIBILITY WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD FLYING WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
RDM
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1115 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
325 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.
CURRENT LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY WITH DRY/COOL NORTHEAST FLOW
SET UP INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES READINGS IN
THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE.
05.12Z NCEP MODEL SUITE AS WELL AS THE GEM/ECMWF ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY SINK SLOWLY SOUTH
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR BY MORNING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP
PRETTY MUCH SQUARE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID
DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER CAUSING WINDS TO BE VERY
LIGHT TO CALM. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WEST OF THE RIVER...WINDS MAY NOT
DECOUPLE ALL THE WAY AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME LIGHT
STIRRING GOING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 32 DEGREES.
STILL...THERE WILL LIKELY BE POCKETS OF COLDER TEMPERATURES WHERE
WINDS DO DECOUPLE. WITH THIS IN MIND...AND COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2
AM TO 8 AM.
LOOK FOR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO SLIP EAST INTO LOWER MI ON
FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO ALONG THE MT/DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL SET
U INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER/MORE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. LOOKING
FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
AND 10-20 MPH ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED WIND AREAS. ALSO ON
FRIDAY...925-850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 4-6C RANGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WE WILL STILL SEE DRY OUTFLOW FROM THE HIGHS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. THIS COULD RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. MORE DETAIL CAN BE FOUND BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION.
NEXT ON THE DOCKET WILL BE INCOMING COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. MODELS
SHOWING DIMINISHING 850-925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...NIL TO
MINIMAL MUCAPE WAS NOTED BY THE NAM/GFS. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL...HAVE
PULLED ANY THUNDER MENTION. BOTTOM LINE RESULT WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL OF A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OR SO.
WILL MAINTAIN A 40-50 POP FOR NOW BASED ON THIS REASONING. APPEARS
FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE AREA IN BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA.
WINDS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40
MPH POSSIBLE IF FULL MIXING CAN BE REALIZED. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
FIELD OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS ALSO EXPECTED WITH COOLER CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF
I-90 AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
325 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
05.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
BOTH SHOW A COOLING/DRY TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...AS COLD CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE OOZES INTO THE REGION. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME MODEST WARMING THEN
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND
HEIGHT BUILD ALOFT. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE
WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
1115 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WINDS WILL BE MORE
SOUTHEAST FRI...WITH DEEP MIXING LEADING TO SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS AT KRST. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SAT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUDS AND -SHRA
WILL RETURN WITH THE FRONT ALSO...WITH THE PCPN THREAT ON SAT. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CIGS. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO DON/T EXPECT A
THUNDER THREAT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH FRIDAY
325 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
ONE MORE DAY OF LOW RELATIVE VALUES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. LOOK FOR
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WITH DRY SOUTHEAST
OUTFLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 7-12 MPH RANGE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE OVER THE HIGHER/MORE
WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
325 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....DAS
LONG TERM......DAS
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A 4 TO 5 MB GRADIENT EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE STATE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE MID
LEVELS WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WITH DRY AIR AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE.
UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS INDICATE LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS ABOUT 8 KFT
DEEP WITH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 6-8 KFT
BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS AND LATEST AIRCRAFT BASED PROFILES.
CERTAINLY BELOW THE INVERSION BASE THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER,
LATEST TRENDS AND LOCAL HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM RUNS AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE HRRR SHOW EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY TRENDING TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS OVERNIGHT IN LINE WITH THE RADAR
TRENDS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
BENIGN WITH MAIN IMPACT CONTINUING TO BE ON THE MARINE SIDE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE REMINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE CONSENSUS AMONG
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALONG WITH THAT STRONG NE
WINDS WILL START WEAKENING TODAY. THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT ABOVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHEN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NE. THE UPPER AIR WAVE PATTERN DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN US/WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINING IN PLACE AND FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
THEREFORE NO CHANGES IN LARGE SCALE FORCING.
ALL IN ALL, SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH EMPHASIS ON ADJACENT WATERS, AND FLORIDA
STRAITS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OFFSHORE THE SW
FLORIDA COAST. THEN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES PREVAILING BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMP WISE, OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL. OVERALL
A PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. ALONG WITH THAT THE SEAS WILL BE COMING DOWN DURING
THE DAY DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE MORNING
OFF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES AND DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. SWELLS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO BE
SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. THE PEAK PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SWELLS
IS NOT THAT LONG (AROUND 10 SECONDS) SO HIGH SURF IS NOT A BIG CONCERN
BUT CERTAINLY A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. AFTER TODAY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH SEAS
REMAINING BELOW 4 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
4 DAYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP TODAY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 35 PERCENT PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY AND SECTIONS OF GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORE. THE SAME SCENARIO IS
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MEETING
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WHICH WILL BE EVEN LESS LIKELY AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 66 79 66 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 69 81 69 / - - - -
MIAMI 79 68 81 68 / - - - -
NAPLES 84 63 82 63 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BISCAYNE
BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...52/PS
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
137 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH AREAS OF FROST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT MONDAY. A COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED...
ADJ DWPTS THIS EVE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN
COLUMN TDY WILL MOISTEN UP AT THE TOP THIS EVE WITH INFLUX OF
HI CLDS. INDEED RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF NAM AND GFS BRING CLDS
QUICKLY IN FROM W THIS EVE. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS MDLS MAY BE AN HR
TOO SLOW...BUT GENERALLY HANDLING IT WELL. THIS PRESENTS A TMP
CONUNDRUM OVERNIGHT AND THUS FROST POTENTIAL. LAMP GUIDANCE CONT
TO SUGGEST FROST WILL BE HARD TO COME BY TONIGHT FOR MOST GIVEN
HI CLDS RACING E. DO THINK A FAST DROP IN TMPS EARLY THIS EVE IS
IN STORE BEFORE LEVELING OFF AS HI CLDS COME IN...WITH SFC DWPT
DEPRESSIONS REMAINING LARGE OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT DESPITE SOME
MODEST RECOVERY. ADJ HRLY TMPS UP BASED ON LAMP GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS 18Z NAM AND GFS WHICH ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THEIR
RESPECTIVE 12Z RUNS. WILL LEAVE FROST ADV AS IS THOUGH AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT THIS EVE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...TO KEEP CLEAR
SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH 08Z...STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND CALM FLOW.
THIS SCENARIO WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF FROST AS TEMPERATURES DROP
UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THEIR DEWPOINTS....EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S LOWLANDS...TO THE MID TEENS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS IN QUESTION. NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A
STARVED MOISTURE COLD FRONT. THE THICKER THIS CLOUD DECK BECOMES
AFTER 08Z...THE MORE PROBABLE THERE IS TO SHUT DOWN THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIN CIRRUS FROM 08-12Z ALLOWING HEAT RELEASE AND
THE ASSOCIATED AREAS OF FROST. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A FROST
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF WV AND MEIGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OH.
WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT CONCERNING THE
FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S LOWLANDS...TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ON EASTER SUNDAY MAX TEMPERATURES PER
CLOUD COVER AND NOT CHANGE IN AIRMASS JUST YET. &&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NAM POINTS TO WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE JUST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE MAIN ENERGY WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST IN NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS
FRONT DRY...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO ADD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE EVENT NEARS. AFTER PASSAGE...NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW PROVIDES
SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE OMEGA AND WARRANTS THE LOW END
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
A DEEP CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS/QUEBEC...AND WILL DOMINATE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
FOR OUR AREA. WILL SEE A PIECE OF ENERGY DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR MONDAY...NECESSITATING HIGHER
POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A MUCH
COOLER PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEAK IN LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT... BRINGING AN END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES.
A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW...CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA MONDAY
MORNING WILL MEANDER SOUTHWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...IMPACTING OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN A DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN EDGES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEPENDING
ON LINGERING CLOUDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO A FROST/FREEZE SITUATION
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THEN DIVERGE SOME FOR AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND VFR
CEILINGS 4000-7000 FEET. AFTER 00Z...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 04/08/12
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ006>011-
013>020-026>037-039-040.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
408 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE MCS STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. 07Z RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...REMNANT INSTABILITY FROM THE MCS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE WASHED OUT BEFORE IT REACHES OUR
CWA...BUT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND NERN TIER OF COUNTIES
DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DUE TO A GENERALLY UNSETTLED AIRMASS ALOFT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK PUTTING
AN END TO CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
OUT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INCREASE AND RESULT IN GREATER ADVECTION OF GULF
MOISTURE. WITH THE WEAKENING HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT AND GOOD MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...COULD SEE SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF MOIST CONDITIONS WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST
WITH DRIER WESTERLIES ACROSS OUR AREA. WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION OF A DRY THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AT LEAST WEAKENING IN THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT DIFFER GREATLY AS
TO WHETHER IT WILL JUST BE WEAK S/W TROUGHING OR THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60 (SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS). A WARMING TREND OF BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL SETTLE IN LATE
WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 62 83 62 84 / 20 20 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 58 83 58 83 / 20 20 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 81 59 83 59 82 / 20 10 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 82 60 83 / 30 20 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 64 85 65 86 / 20 20 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 61 83 60 82 / 30 20 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 60 83 58 83 / 20 10 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 82 59 82 / 20 10 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 61 81 61 81 / 20 20 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 81 62 82 61 83 / 20 10 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 83 61 83 / 20 10 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CONDITIONS FOR EASTER
SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TAP GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ARE
PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A CORRIDOR BETWEEN A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH MANITOBA. 07.18Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IF
ANY 0-3KM MUCAPE PRESENT WITH NO UPWARD TREND EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MEANS THAT THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER DEVELOP. THIS COLD FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND END THE THREAT OF
THESE SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS WELL WITH ANY POST-
FRONTAL CUMULUS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT DISSIPATING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO EASTER SUNDAY AND WHAT KIND OF CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW
TONIGHT WITH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING BACK IN AS A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WHICH WILL CREATE STEEP SURFACE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
07.12Z NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS
BEING DRY ADIABATIC FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700MB BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM SITES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MAIN
QUESTION BEING HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BE FOR WINDS AND DEW
POINTS. DESPITE THE WELL MIXED PROFILE ENCOURAGES SOME GUSTINESS
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY
WEAK. 07.12Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER UP TO
AROUND 900MB WITH WINDS THERE BETWEEN 20 TO 30KTS. WITH NOT MUCH
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...THINKING THAT WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THIS 20
TO 30KT RANGE AND NOT TAP INTO THE HIGHER WINDS FURTHER ALOFT AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO MIX OUT AS
WELL...BUT AGAIN IT MAINLY DEPENDS ON HOW DEEP WE ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO. THIS COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO A DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER DAY TOMORROW TO WHERE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. FOR MORE
DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS AFD.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TOMORROW IS WITH SHOWER CHANCES AS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. 500-300MB PV ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON RIGHT AS PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING LEADS TO THE DEEP MIXING. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO
LEAD TO SOME COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WHICH IN TURN DEVELOPS
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY. IF THIS INSTABILITY WOULD
BE A LITTLE HIGHER THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A THREAT FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS VERY MARGINAL
TO EVEN GET LIGHTNING. THUS...WILL NOT BE MENTIONING IN THE HWO
OR OTHER PRODUCTS. AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT COME THROUGH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR.
A COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SECOND COLD
FRONT AS THE TROUGH STALLS OUT OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FORCING FROM THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES FOR MONDAY...SO
HAVE KEPT THEM DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE NEED FOR FREEZE WARNINGS STARTING
TUESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE FOR A HARD
FREEZE ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
WITH THE STACKED LOW SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AS
WELL WITH THE CORE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD
SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS LIKELY AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. THUS...THE NEED WILL BE THERE FOR ADDITIONAL
FREEZE WARNINGS WITH THE EARLY VEGETATION GROWTH THIS SPRING.
BEYOND THIS THE MAIN FEATURE IS WITH THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING
THAT TAKES SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS...DIFFERENCES
ARISE BETWEEN THE 07.12Z GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARD TO WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS HAD BEEN THE
FASTER MODEL THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH BRINGING THIS PRECIPITATION
IN...BUT NOW THE ECMWF HAS JUMPED IT AND IS NOW THE FAST ONE WITH
RAIN GETTING IN THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE ALL RAIN AS IT COMES IN AS WELL...SO HAVE
DROPPED THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FROM THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
WITH SOME LIGHT -SHRA HAVING MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS
AT KLSE...SOME CONCERN THAT FOG COULD DEVELOP. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR POST THE FRONT THOUGH...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING ABOUT 20
DEGREES IN A FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP A GOOD T/TD SPREAD.
MEANWHILE...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD THAT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HOLD ALL
NIGHT. WEST BREEZES ARE EVIDENT TO THE WEST...AND EVEN A COUPLE MPH
BUMP HIGHER COULD KEEP IT STIRRED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL NOT ADD MENTION TO KLSE.
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY.
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO DEEP MIXING BY
18Z...WITH MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SUGGESTING GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH AT
KRST. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN/T THAT TIGHT PER LATEST MODEL
RUNS...BUT SUBSIDENCE IS STRONG IN THE LOWEST LAYERS OF
ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
ADDITION TO THE GUSTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN
EFFECT FROM 1 PM THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....HALBACH
LONG TERM......HALBACH
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
948 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY...BUT
ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 2 TO 4 FEET THIS MORNING DOWN TO 2 FEET OR
LESS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COMBINE SEAS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO DECREASE FROM 5 TO 7 FEET THIS MORNING DOWN
TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SEAS FOR TODAY. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
WILL BE UNDER A SCEC CONDITION.
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEW POINTS IN GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES SHOULD FALL DOWN TO AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
VERY DRY GROUNDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA, EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THEY WILL BE IN
THE 40S AND AROUND 30 OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THE ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENT WILL ALSO BE IN THE LOWER 30S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN EAST
SFC WIND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 18-20KT AFT 14Z./KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A 4 TO 5 MB GRADIENT EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE STATE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE MID
LEVELS WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WITH DRY AIR AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE.
UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS INDICATE LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS ABOUT 8 KFT
DEEP WITH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 6-8 KFT
BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS AND LATEST AIRCRAFT BASED PROFILES.
CERTAINLY BELOW THE INVERSION BASE THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER,
LATEST TRENDS AND LOCAL HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM RUNS AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE HRRR SHOW EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY TRENDING TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS OVERNIGHT IN LINE WITH THE RADAR
TRENDS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
BENIGN WITH MAIN IMPACT CONTINUING TO BE ON THE MARINE SIDE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE REMINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE CONSENSUS AMONG
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALONG WITH THAT STRONG NE
WINDS WILL START WEAKENING TODAY. THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT ABOVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHEN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NE. THE UPPER AIR WAVE PATTERN DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN US/WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINING IN PLACE AND FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
THEREFORE NO CHANGES IN LARGE SCALE FORCING.
ALL IN ALL, SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH EMPHASIS ON ADJACENT WATERS, AND FLORIDA
STRAITS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OFFSHORE THE SW
FLORIDA COAST. THEN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES PREVAILING BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMP WISE, OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL. OVERALL
A PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD.
MARINE...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. ALONG WITH THAT THE SEAS WILL BE COMING DOWN DURING
THE DAY DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE MORNING
OFF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES AND DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. SWELLS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO BE
SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. THE PEAK PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SWELLS
IS NOT THAT LONG (AROUND 10 SECONDS) SO HIGH SURF IS NOT A BIG CONCERN
BUT CERTAINLY A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. AFTER TODAY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH SEAS
REMAINING BELOW 4 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
4 DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER...
AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP TODAY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 35 PERCENT PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY AND SECTIONS OF GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORE. THE SAME SCENARIO IS
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MEETING
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WHICH WILL BE EVEN LESS LIKELY AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 66 79 66 / 10 - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 69 81 69 / 10 - - -
MIAMI 80 68 81 68 / - - - -
NAPLES 84 63 82 63 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE
BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...52/PS
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
721 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN EAST
SFC WIND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 18-20KT AFT 14Z./KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A 4 TO 5 MB GRADIENT EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE STATE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE MID
LEVELS WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WITH DRY AIR AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE.
UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS INDICATE LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS ABOUT 8 KFT
DEEP WITH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 6-8 KFT
BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS AND LATEST AIRCRAFT BASED PROFILES.
CERTAINLY BELOW THE INVERSION BASE THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER,
LATEST TRENDS AND LOCAL HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM RUNS AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE HRRR SHOW EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY TRENDING TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS OVERNIGHT IN LINE WITH THE RADAR
TRENDS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
BENIGN WITH MAIN IMPACT CONTINUING TO BE ON THE MARINE SIDE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE REMINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE CONSENSUS AMONG
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALONG WITH THAT STRONG NE
WINDS WILL START WEAKENING TODAY. THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT ABOVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHEN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NE. THE UPPER AIR WAVE PATTERN DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN US/WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINING IN PLACE AND FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
THEREFORE NO CHANGES IN LARGE SCALE FORCING.
ALL IN ALL, SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH EMPHASIS ON ADJACENT WATERS, AND FLORIDA
STRAITS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OFFSHORE THE SW
FLORIDA COAST. THEN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES PREVAILING BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMP WISE, OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL. OVERALL
A PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD.
MARINE...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. ALONG WITH THAT THE SEAS WILL BE COMING DOWN DURING
THE DAY DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE MORNING
OFF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES AND DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. SWELLS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO BE
SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. THE PEAK PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SWELLS
IS NOT THAT LONG (AROUND 10 SECONDS) SO HIGH SURF IS NOT A BIG CONCERN
BUT CERTAINLY A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. AFTER TODAY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH SEAS
REMAINING BELOW 4 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
4 DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER...
AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP TODAY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 35 PERCENT PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY AND SECTIONS OF GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORE. THE SAME SCENARIO IS
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MEETING
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WHICH WILL BE EVEN LESS LIKELY AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 66 79 66 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 69 81 69 / - - - -
MIAMI 79 68 81 68 / - - - -
NAPLES 84 63 82 63 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE
BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
912 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK EASTBOUND COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES TODAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ELIMINATE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES, WHICH HAVE
EXPIRED.
RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS A BAND OF ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS,
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EASTBOUND COLD FRONT, PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. DUE TO SURFACE LAYER DRYNESS, EXPECT
LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES FOR MOST SPOTS.
MAINTAINED TEMPERATURE FORECAST PER RECENT HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
REFERENCE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR THE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
PREDICTED SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW/SURFACE LOW OVER
THE MARITIMES RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A COOL
AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL RESULT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK MAINLY IN THE 50S
MONDAY...AND IN THE 40S TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN MULTIPLE RUNS
OF THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN THAT A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST COAST. WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850HPA AND 1000-500HPA THICKNESS VALUES
SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...BY ROUGHLY 10-15
DEGREES...AS SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE NAEFS
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD RETURNING TEMPERATURES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE TODAY DESPITE PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD
FRONT AS MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND ANY RAIN THAT
OCCURS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL TO AVIATION CONCERNS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WL REINFORCE
COOL NORTHWEST WIND ACRS THE LAKES AND BRING PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO
RETURN BY THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITERIA WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY, DUE TO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST AROUND 30 PERCENT. THIS IS A
RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15
MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 MPH RANGE...SO IF YOU PLAN ON BURNING
SUNDAY...PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL BURN LAWS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1108 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WAS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AT MIDDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TURN COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...GENERATING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
...HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS AS IT WILL BE A WINDY AFTN...
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED AS OF 1053 AM.
UPDATED FCST AS BEEN OUT SINCE 945 AM. REASON FOR AFD DELAY IS WE`VE
BEEN CONTEMPLATING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTN. PRES GRADIENT WILL
BE SLACKENING...BUT DEEP LAYER JET STREAK WILL MOVE THRU THIS AFTN...
INCLUDING CORE OF LOW-LVL JET MAX. GRB 50 KTS JUST BELOW 850 MB.
MEAN LAYER MIXING TOOL SUGGESTS 30-35 KT GUSTS ARE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH BUFKIT NAM WIND PROFILES. BOTH
THE RUC/NAM ARE 5-10 KTS TOO LOW COMPARED TO GRB OB. RUC PROFILES
HAVE BEST DEPICTION OF 50 KT MAX MOVING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN ADVY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUSTS OF 40 KTS
APPEAR LIKELY AND WORST CASE SCENARIO COULD BE HIGHER. SO
INCREASED AFTN GUSTS BY 15 MPH.
ADVECTION IS NIL BUT DEPTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE AT LEAST UP
TO 850 MB. WE`LL STILL ADD ANOTHER 10F TO CURRENT TEMPS. 12Z GRB
SOUNDING 850 MB TEMP OFFERS MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WE ARE
SEEING DIURNAL PRODUCTION OF CLOUDS IN LINGERING MSTR. LOW-LVL
TRAJECTORIES ARE MORE FROM INL AND IS MUCH MORE MOIST. SO EXPECT
M-P/SUNNY SKIES. MAINTAINED LOW CHC SHWRS S OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE BAND OF SHOWERS AS IT
SLOWLY THINS/WEAKENS WHILE PUSHING NORTH AND EAST INTO NORTHEAST
LOWER AND THROUGH CHIP/MACK IN EASTERN UPPER. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING
TREND JUST A TAD AS WELL.
FINALLY...AFTER ANALYSIS OF THE 6Z MODEL SUITE...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A LOW CHC SHOWER MENTION SOUTH AND WEST OF A TVC/HTL LINE
TOWARDS EVENING AS BOWLING BALL OF IMPRESSIVE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
NEAR 8C OVERLAP A BAND OF H85-H7 LAPSE RATES OF 9C...ALLOWING A
DECENT BIT OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHERN MONTANA...THIS AIRMASS WAS ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SHOWERS
DESPITE SIMILAR AFTERNOON RH/S. FINALLY...SREF DPROG/DT PLOTS SHOW
A GRADUALLY INCREASING NUMBER OF MEMBERS WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG
WITH 06Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY SHRAS THAT
DEVELOP FOR GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL LLEVEL DCAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
THE OMEGA BLOCK-LIKE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THIS PAST WEEK IS BREAKING DOWN TEMPORARILY AS OF THIS WRITING AS
THE WESTERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...BREAKING DOWN THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY TEAMING UP WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF NOAM. THE END RESULT WILL BE A RETROGRESSION OF THE
OMEGA-LIKE PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THIS OVERALL TRANSITION SPELLS A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
AS OF THIS WRITING...BAND OF RELATIVELY INTENSE SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MARCH THROUGH THE CWA FUELED BY NEGATIVELY TILTED EJECTING
TROUGH...COUPLED JET DYNAMICS...A BAND OF H85-H7 FGEN AND MODEST
PWATS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...
GENERALLY AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION
SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING MY EASTERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK...AND LOOKING AT EARLY MORNING FOG PRODUCT
IMAGERY...WILL BE REPLACED BY MCLEAR SKIES.
HEADING INTO THE DAY TODAY...PRIMARY CONCERNS RESULT AROUND CLOUD
REDEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY...BUT WITH MID LEVEL COOLING
AND A LITTLE BIT OF RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
POP SOME CU BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING WITH IT STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS
WELL AS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE. COULDN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LATE DAY SPRINKLE SOUTH AND WEST OF TVC/HTL...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS
WILL BE WHERE THE LLEVEL MOISTURE IS MOST MEAGER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR EVERYONE TO
REMAIN DRY. IF ANY SHRAS DO DEVELOP...WOULD HAVE TO WATCH FOR GUSTY
WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN WHAT WILL BE AN INVERTED-V PROFILE AT THE
SURFACE. MORE NOTICEABLE TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION COMBINES WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF 30KT WINDS AT H85 WITH 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT THE GROUND WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30MPH. FINALLY...UPSTREAM
DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE LAKES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT WE
COULD MIX DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO AROUND 20F BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING RH/S BACK TO CRITICAL LEVELS...AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE MORNING HWO
AND FWF. WITH T85S IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE AND NO PROBLEM MIXING TO
THIS LEVEL BY AFTERNOON...CONSENSUS/PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS FROM 50
IN THE EASTERN UP TO UPPER 50S OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LOOKS VERY
REASONABLE.
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCOOTS SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERHEAD...BUT WITH T85S STILL TOO WARM
TO GET A LAKE RESPONSE GOING...AND LIMITED LLEVEL MOISTURE
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH VARYING LEVELS OF PRIMARILY MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WITH THE DRY LLEVEL AIRMASS...EXPECT TEMPS WILL
FALL PRETTY RAPIDLY...HELD BACK BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
DECENT LLEVEL MIXING. STILL...WILL LOWER GOING FORECAST LOWS
TOWARDS...OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO HANG YOUR HAT ON FOR MONDAY WITH
WEAK SPOKES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ROLLING OVERHEAD. THE
LLEVELS REMAIN DRY WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE HOLDING
OFF UNTIL EVENING. LLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP...BUT WITH
A STABLE LAYER FROM H7 UPWARD...REALLY DON/T SEE ANY PRECIPITATING
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY UNTIL WE CAN DEEPEN MOISTURE AND COMBINE THIS
WITH COOLING H85 TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ASSISTANCE
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL GO DRY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A
LATE AFTERNOON SPRINKLE NOT FULLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
UNLIKELY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR ADVECTION...FULL MIXING
TO THIS LEVEL /WHICH AGAIN LOOKS LIKELY WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES
PERSISTING/ SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 40S OVER EASTERN UPPER
INCREASING TO THE LOWER 50S OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
STILL LOOKING LIKE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SPRING WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...COURTESY OF DEEP
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AN BACKSIDE OF EAST CANADA CENTERED TROUGH
AXIS. SPOKES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR
LIKELY TO KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT RAIN (AND GULP...SNOW) SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALSO PER THE SPRING-TIME USUAL...COOL AIR DOES
NOT LOOK TO STICK AROUND TOO LONG...WITH AIRMASS MODERATION LIKELY
BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY NEXT
WEEKEND. FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN CENTERED ON LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH LATER FOCUS DIRECTED AT UPWARD
TEMPERATURES TRENDS AND WHEN TO INTRODUCE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
NOT REALLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES INITIALLY MONDAY EVENING...
DESPITE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN BACKSIDE OF
DOWNSTREAM PARENT SYSTEM. BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH AND NORTHEAST...AS DOES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. ONTARIO BAND OF
DEEP MOISTURE PIVOTS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH JUST ENOUGH MID
LEVEL SUPPORT TO PERHAPS KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MAY EVEN SEE A
TOUCH OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS THIS
OCCURS. MINIMAL FORCING STILL SUGGESTS JUST SOME LIGHT SPOTTY
ACTIVITY. THERMAL PROGS TRENDING COLDER...NOW SUGGESTING SNOW BEING
THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE FOR ALL AREAS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN
THIS DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING JUST A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW AT
BEST. MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO PIVOT SOUTH TUESDAY (ONCE
AGAIN...WITH A TOUCH OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT)...BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. A RAW
DAY FOR SURE...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ONLY ADDING CONSIDERABLE
MORE CHILL TO AFTERNOON READING IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S (PERHAPS
ONLY UPPER 30S FOR PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER).
AFTER PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING...MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK SHAPING UP AS A DRY ONE AS LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WORKS IT MAGIC...BRINGING SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BY THURSDAY BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INTERESTINGLY...12Z ECMWF TOOK A
SIGNIFICANT LEAP TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS DEPICTION OF DRIVING
WAA RAINS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY. STILL NOT SOLD ON THIS
AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO...WITH BLOCKY PATTERN AND SLOW TO RETREAT HIGH
PRESSURE SUGGESTING A SLOWER EVOLUTION. HAVE KINDA SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...BRINGING IN SOME SHOWER MENTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME SUGGESTION FOR A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT GETS
HUNG UP OVER THE LAKES...WITH EXCELLENT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED
BRINGING PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. NO NEED TO GO TOO AGGRESSIVE JUST YET... ESPECIALLY WITH
RECENT WILD FLUCTUATIONS SEEN IN GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS BAND OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST...WITH RESIDUAL IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS
FOLLOWING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. APN WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS....WITH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FEATURING JUST
SOME SCATTERED CU AROUND 5KFT. TOWARDS EVENING...SOME SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND COULD IMPACT MBL
/AND POTENTIALLY TVC/. WILL INCLUDE VCSH MENTION AT MBL...WHERE
THE BEST CHANCES ARE. RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN A VERY DRY LLEVEL AIRMASS AND STRONG
WINDS ALOFT...THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. TONIGHT...
EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15G25KTS FOR THE DAY
TODAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WEST NORTHWEST...BUT DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KTS THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
OCCLUDED FRONT THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WINDS TO 15G25KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE WILL HOIST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY...STAGGERING THEM SUCH
THAT WHITEFISH BAY/SAINT MARYS/LAKE HURON WILL START LATER THIS
MORNING WITH LAKE MICHIGAN STARTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BEFORE STRENGTHENING BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-017-019>022-
025>028-031>034.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...JA
MARINE...JA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1043 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012
.UPDATE...
DUE TO A LACK OF CAPE AND SHEAR ON PROGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE DYING UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF THUNDER ON UPDATED FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOWERED PROBABILITIES TO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE. AFTERNOON SKY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
A WEAK S/W TROF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TODAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE
FORMS WEST TO NORTHWEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS LATER TODAY
AND BECOME DIFFUSE...AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST OF TEXAS
AND LOWER PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
FROM KAUS TO KSAT THRU 15Z...1 THSD TO 3 THSD SCT WITH CIGS ABV
10 THSD BKN ARE EXPECTED. CIGS 5 THSD TO 10 THSD BKN WEST OF A
KERV TO CARRIZO SPRINGS LINE AND WEST TO KDRT ARE EXPECTED THRU
15Z...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA. AFTER 15Z 4 THSD TO 6 THSD SCT WITH
CIGS ABOVE 10 THSD BKN IS FORECAST. ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA ARE
EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. MVFR
CIGS OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN TO OVC ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER
08Z TONIGHT FROM VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT...AND DEVELOP WEST TO
VCNTY OF KDRT AFTER 11Z MONDAY MORNING. 3 THSD TO 5 THSD SCT WITH
SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED AFTER 16Z MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MCS STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. 07Z RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...REMNANT INSTABILITY FROM THE MCS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE WASHED OUT BEFORE IT REACHES OUR
CWA...BUT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND NERN TIER OF COUNTIES
DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DUE TO A GENERALLY UNSETTLED AIRMASS ALOFT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK PUTTING
AN END TO CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
OUT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INCREASE AND RESULT IN GREATER ADVECTION OF GULF
MOISTURE. WITH THE WEAKENING HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT AND GOOD MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...COULD SEE SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF MOIST CONDITIONS WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST
WITH DRIER WESTERLIES ACROSS OUR AREA. WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION OF A DRY THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AT LEAST WEAKENING IN THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT DIFFER GREATLY AS
TO WHETHER IT WILL JUST BE WEAK S/W TROUGHING OR THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60 (SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS). A WARMING TREND OF BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL SETTLE IN LATE
WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 62 83 62 84 / 10 20 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 58 83 58 83 / 10 20 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 81 59 83 59 82 / 10 10 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 82 60 83 / 10 20 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 64 85 65 86 / 20 20 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 61 83 60 82 / 10 20 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 60 83 58 83 / 20 10 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 82 59 82 / 10 10 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 61 81 61 81 / 10 20 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 81 62 82 61 83 / 10 10 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 83 61 83 / 10 10 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...02
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
612 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK S/W TROF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TODAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE
FORMS WEST TO NORTHWEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS LATER TODAY
AND BECOME DIFFUSE...AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST OF TEXAS
AND LOWER PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
FROM KAUS TO KSAT THRU 15Z...1 THSD TO 3 THSD SCT WITH CIGS ABV
10 THSD BKN ARE EXPECTED. CIGS 5 THSD TO 10 THSD BKN WEST OF A
KERV TO CARRIZO SPRINGS LINE AND WEST TO KDRT ARE EXPECTED THRU
15Z...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA. AFTER 15Z 4 THSD TO 6 THSD SCT WITH
CIGS ABOVE 10 THSD BKN IS FORECAST. ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA ARE
EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. MVFR
CIGS OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN TO OVC ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER
08Z TONIGHT FROM VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT...AND DEVELOP WEST TO
VCNTY OF KDRT AFTER 11Z MONDAY MORNING. 3 THSD TO 5 THSD SCT WITH
SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED AFTER 16Z MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MCS STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. 07Z RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...REMNANT INSTABILITY FROM THE MCS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE WASHED OUT BEFORE IT REACHES OUR
CWA...BUT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND NERN TIER OF COUNTIES
DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DUE TO A GENERALLY UNSETTLED AIRMASS ALOFT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK PUTTING
AN END TO CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
OUT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INCREASE AND RESULT IN GREATER ADVECTION OF GULF
MOISTURE. WITH THE WEAKENING HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT AND GOOD MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...COULD SEE SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF MOIST CONDITIONS WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST
WITH DRIER WESTERLIES ACROSS OUR AREA. WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION OF A DRY THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AT LEAST WEAKENING IN THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT DIFFER GREATLY AS
TO WHETHER IT WILL JUST BE WEAK S/W TROUGHING OR THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60 (SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS). A WARMING TREND OF BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL SETTLE IN LATE
WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 62 83 62 84 / 20 20 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 58 83 58 83 / 20 20 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 81 59 83 59 82 / 20 10 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 82 60 83 / 30 20 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 64 85 65 86 / 20 20 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 61 83 60 82 / 30 20 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 60 83 58 83 / 20 10 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 82 59 82 / 20 10 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 61 81 61 81 / 20 20 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 81 62 82 61 83 / 20 10 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 83 61 83 / 20 10 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
141 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
.AVIATION...THRU. 18Z MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN EAST
SFC WIND WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS WITH MODERATE GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED AT SITE APF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS TODAY AND MONDAY. SCT/BKN CU FIELD WITH BASES AROUND 4-5
KFT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY...BUT
ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 2 TO 4 FEET THIS MORNING DOWN TO 2 FEET OR
LESS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COMBINE SEAS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO DECREASE FROM 5 TO 7 FEET THIS MORNING DOWN
TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SEAS FOR TODAY. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
WILL BE UNDER A SCEC CONDITION.
FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEW POINTS IN GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES SHOULD FALL DOWN TO AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
VERY DRY GROUNDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA, EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THEY WILL BE IN
THE 40S AND AROUND 30 OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THE ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENT WILL ALSO BE IN THE LOWER 30S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN EAST
SFC WIND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 18-20KT AFT 14Z./KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A 4 TO 5 MB GRADIENT EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE STATE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE MID
LEVELS WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WITH DRY AIR AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE.
UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS INDICATE LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS ABOUT 8 KFT
DEEP WITH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 6-8 KFT
BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS AND LATEST AIRCRAFT BASED PROFILES.
CERTAINLY BELOW THE INVERSION BASE THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER,
LATEST TRENDS AND LOCAL HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM RUNS AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE HRRR SHOW EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY TRENDING TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS OVERNIGHT IN LINE WITH THE RADAR
TRENDS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
BENIGN WITH MAIN IMPACT CONTINUING TO BE ON THE MARINE SIDE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE REMINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE CONSENSUS AMONG
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALONG WITH THAT STRONG NE
WINDS WILL START WEAKENING TODAY. THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT ABOVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHEN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NE. THE UPPER AIR WAVE PATTERN DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN US/WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINING IN PLACE AND FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
THEREFORE NO CHANGES IN LARGE SCALE FORCING.
ALL IN ALL, SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH EMPHASIS ON ADJACENT WATERS, AND FLORIDA
STRAITS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OFFSHORE THE SW
FLORIDA COAST. THEN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES PREVAILING BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMP WISE, OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND NORMAL. OVERALL
A PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD.
MARINE...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. ALONG WITH THAT THE SEAS WILL BE COMING DOWN DURING
THE DAY DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE MORNING
OFF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES AND DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. SWELLS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO BE
SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. THE PEAK PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SWELLS
IS NOT THAT LONG (AROUND 10 SECONDS) SO HIGH SURF IS NOT A BIG CONCERN
BUT CERTAINLY A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. AFTER TODAY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH SEAS
REMAINING BELOW 4 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
4 DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER...
AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP TODAY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 35 PERCENT PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY AND SECTIONS OF GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORE. THE SAME SCENARIO IS
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MEETING
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WHICH WILL BE EVEN LESS LIKELY AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 65 79 65 83 / - - - 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 80 70 83 / - - - 10
MIAMI 68 81 69 84 / - - - 10
NAPLES 62 84 63 84 / - - - 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE
BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
246 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY COOL FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS AS WELL. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE DRIER AIRMASS
CURRENTLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOUND
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH
SOME SREF AND GFS INCORPORATED TO SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE COOL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...SHOULD GIVE THE
FRONT A LITTLE MORE PUSH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES AS THIS WILL BE JUST
PAST MAX HEATING AND THIS AREA HAS THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE COLUMN. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW CINH
CONTINUING TO ERODE AS WELL.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETUP
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE AREA WILL
BRING A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. THE MOSTLY LIKELY DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH CASES LIKE THIS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES DESPITE THE WEAK FLOW REGIME. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL STILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.
BEYOND THURSDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE QUITE
WARM AS A DEEPENING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO RISE
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE...HOWEVER MOST
WILL BE DRY.
&&
.MARINE...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN
DRY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 82 62 82 62 82 / 10 10 20 10 40
KBPT 80 60 81 62 82 / 10 10 20 20 30
KAEX 80 57 81 59 80 / 10 10 20 10 50
KLFT 81 60 82 61 81 / 10 10 20 10 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
BRAZZELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1243 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT. PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON, WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS STARTING MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWEAKED FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON BLEND OF RECENT
SURFACE, RADAR, AND SATELLITE DATA, COUPLED WITH HRRR AND NAM
MODEL OUTPUT. THESE SHOWED COLD FRONTAL BAND OF CLOUDS AND VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO
EARLY EVENING.
UPPED WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH PER RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES.
DUE TO PASSING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SLIGHTLY COOLER H8 TEMPERATURES,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NO MORE THAN 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN 12 PM
READINGS.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE 30S, SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL NOT GO LOWER
THAN THE CRITICAL 30 PERCENT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
CAN INCREASE TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE ASSESSMENT
CONTINUES TO BE DRIER THAN THE CRITICAL 10 PERCENT VALUE.
REFERENCE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR THE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
PREDICTED SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW/SURFACE LOW OVER
THE MARITIMES RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A COOL
AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL RESULT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK MAINLY IN THE 50S
MONDAY...AND IN THE 40S TUESDAY. SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN MULTIPLE RUNS
OF THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN THAT A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST COAST. WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850HPA AND 1000-500HPA THICKNESS VALUES
SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...BY ROUGHLY 10-15
DEGREES...AS SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE NAEFS
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD RETURNING TEMPERATURES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE TODAY DESPITE PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD
FRONT AS MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND ANY RAIN THAT
OCCURS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL TO AVIATION CONCERNS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WL REINFORCE
COOL NORTHWEST WIND ACRS THE LAKES AND BRING PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO
RETURN BY THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED, AS 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
ASSESSMENT CONTINUES TO BE DRIER THAN THE CRITICAL 10 PERCENT
VALUE, AND SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON CAN INCREASE TO NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH.
HOWEVER, FIRE DANGER WILL NOT REACH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG
HEADLINES, SINCE SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 30S,
SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN THE CRITICAL 30
PERCENT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON.
SO CONTINUE TO CONSULT LOCAL BURN LAWS BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY
PLANNED BURNING.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
215 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WAS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AT MIDDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TURN COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK. UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...GENERATING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
LOW-LVL MSTR REMAINS DEEPEST OVER THE ERN U.P. AND NE LOWER MI.
BUT VIS SATL SHOWS ITS LOSING THE BATTLE...BEGINNING TO MIX OUT
ALONG WITH SOME MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION. WE`VE SEEN A COUPLE LGT
SHWRS DEVELOP JUST N OF ST. IGNACE AND HEAD ESE WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES BEING PICKED UP OVER CHEBOYGAN/PRESQUE ISLE COUNTIES.
ADDED SOME SLGT CHC POPS THRU 5 PM. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SKIES WILL BECOME MORE SUNNY
FOR NE LOWER OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS.
WINDS ARE GUSTY...BUT NOT CLOSE TO ADVY CRITERIA YET. WE STILL
HAVE SOME MORE DEEPENING OF THE BL YET TO GO. IF WE DON`T SEE ANY
G40 MPH BY 4 PM...WE`LL PROBABLY CANCEL THE ADVY EARLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
...HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS AS IT WILL BE A WINDY AFTN...
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED AS OF 1053 AM.
UPDATED FCST AS BEEN OUT SINCE 945 AM. REASON FOR AFD DELAY IS WE`VE
BEEN CONTEMPLATING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTN. PRES GRADIENT WILL
BE SLACKENING...BUT DEEP LAYER JET STREAK WILL MOVE THRU THIS AFTN...
INCLUDING CORE OF LOW-LVL JET MAX. GRB 50 KTS JUST BELOW 850 MB.
MEAN LAYER MIXING TOOL SUGGESTS 30-35 KT GUSTS ARE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH BUFKIT NAM WIND PROFILES. BOTH
THE RUC/NAM ARE 5-10 KTS TOO LOW COMPARED TO GRB OB. RUC PROFILES
HAVE BEST DEPICTION OF 50 KT MAX MOVING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN ADVY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUSTS OF 40 KTS
APPEAR LIKELY AND WORST CASE SCENARIO COULD BE HIGHER. SO
INCREASED AFTN GUSTS BY 15 MPH.
ADVECTION IS NIL BUT DEPTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE AT LEAST UP
TO 850 MB. WE`LL STILL ADD ANOTHER 10F TO CURRENT TEMPS. 12Z GRB
SOUNDING 850 MB TEMP OFFERS MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WE ARE
SEEING DIURNAL PRODUCTION OF CLOUDS IN LINGERING MSTR. LOW-LVL
TRAJECTORIES ARE MORE FROM INL AND IS MUCH MORE MOIST. SO EXPECT
M-P/SUNNY SKIES. MAINTAINED LOW CHC SHWRS S OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE BAND OF SHOWERS AS IT
SLOWLY THINS/WEAKENS WHILE PUSHING NORTH AND EAST INTO NORTHEAST
LOWER AND THROUGH CHIP/MACK IN EASTERN UPPER. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING
TREND JUST A TAD AS WELL.
FINALLY...AFTER ANALYSIS OF THE 6Z MODEL SUITE...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A LOW CHC SHOWER MENTION SOUTH AND WEST OF A TVC/HTL LINE
TOWARDS EVENING AS BOWLING BALL OF IMPRESSIVE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
NEAR 8C OVERLAP A BAND OF H85-H7 LAPSE RATES OF 9C...ALLOWING A
DECENT BIT OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM YESTERDAY OVER
NORTHERN MONTANA...THIS AIRMASS WAS ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SHOWERS
DESPITE SIMILAR AFTERNOON RH/S. FINALLY...SREF DPROG/DT PLOTS SHOW
A GRADUALLY INCREASING NUMBER OF MEMBERS WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG
WITH 06Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY SHRAS THAT
DEVELOP FOR GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL LLEVEL DCAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
THE OMEGA BLOCK-LIKE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THIS PAST WEEK IS BREAKING DOWN TEMPORARILY AS OF THIS WRITING AS
THE WESTERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...BREAKING DOWN THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY TEAMING UP WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF NOAM. THE END RESULT WILL BE A RETROGRESSION OF THE
OMEGA-LIKE PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THIS OVERALL TRANSITION SPELLS A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
AS OF THIS WRITING...BAND OF RELATIVELY INTENSE SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
MARCH THROUGH THE CWA FUELED BY NEGATIVELY TILTED EJECTING
TROUGH...COUPLED JET DYNAMICS...A BAND OF H85-H7 FGEN AND MODEST
PWATS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...
GENERALLY AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION
SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING MY EASTERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK...AND LOOKING AT EARLY MORNING FOG PRODUCT
IMAGERY...WILL BE REPLACED BY MCLEAR SKIES.
HEADING INTO THE DAY TODAY...PRIMARY CONCERNS RESULT AROUND CLOUD
REDEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY...BUT WITH MID LEVEL COOLING
AND A LITTLE BIT OF RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
POP SOME CU BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING WITH IT STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS
WELL AS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE. COULDN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LATE DAY SPRINKLE SOUTH AND WEST OF TVC/HTL...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS
WILL BE WHERE THE LLEVEL MOISTURE IS MOST MEAGER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR EVERYONE TO
REMAIN DRY. IF ANY SHRAS DO DEVELOP...WOULD HAVE TO WATCH FOR GUSTY
WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN WHAT WILL BE AN INVERTED-V PROFILE AT THE
SURFACE. MORE NOTICEABLE TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION COMBINES WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF 30KT WINDS AT H85 WITH 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT THE GROUND WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30MPH. FINALLY...UPSTREAM
DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE LAKES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT WE
COULD MIX DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO AROUND 20F BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING RH/S BACK TO CRITICAL LEVELS...AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE MORNING HWO
AND FWF. WITH T85S IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE AND NO PROBLEM MIXING TO
THIS LEVEL BY AFTERNOON...CONSENSUS/PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS FROM 50
IN THE EASTERN UP TO UPPER 50S OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LOOKS VERY
REASONABLE.
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCOOTS SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERHEAD...BUT WITH T85S STILL TOO WARM
TO GET A LAKE RESPONSE GOING...AND LIMITED LLEVEL MOISTURE
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH VARYING LEVELS OF PRIMARILY MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WITH THE DRY LLEVEL AIRMASS...EXPECT TEMPS WILL
FALL PRETTY RAPIDLY...HELD BACK BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
DECENT LLEVEL MIXING. STILL...WILL LOWER GOING FORECAST LOWS
TOWARDS...OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO HANG YOUR HAT ON FOR MONDAY WITH
WEAK SPOKES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ROLLING OVERHEAD. THE
LLEVELS REMAIN DRY WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE HOLDING
OFF UNTIL EVENING. LLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP...BUT WITH
A STABLE LAYER FROM H7 UPWARD...REALLY DON/T SEE ANY PRECIPITATING
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY UNTIL WE CAN DEEPEN MOISTURE AND COMBINE THIS
WITH COOLING H85 TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ASSISTANCE
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL GO DRY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A
LATE AFTERNOON SPRINKLE NOT FULLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
UNLIKELY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR ADVECTION...FULL MIXING
TO THIS LEVEL /WHICH AGAIN LOOKS LIKELY WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES
PERSISTING/ SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 40S OVER EASTERN UPPER
INCREASING TO THE LOWER 50S OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
STILL LOOKING LIKE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SPRING WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...COURTESY OF DEEP
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AN BACKSIDE OF EAST CANADA CENTERED TROUGH
AXIS. SPOKES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR
LIKELY TO KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT RAIN (AND GULP...SNOW) SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALSO PER THE SPRING-TIME USUAL...COOL AIR DOES
NOT LOOK TO STICK AROUND TOO LONG...WITH AIRMASS MODERATION LIKELY
BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY NEXT
WEEKEND. FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN CENTERED ON LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH LATER FOCUS DIRECTED AT UPWARD
TEMPERATURES TRENDS AND WHEN TO INTRODUCE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
NOT REALLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES INITIALLY MONDAY EVENING...
DESPITE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN BACKSIDE OF
DOWNSTREAM PARENT SYSTEM. BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH AND NORTHEAST...AS DOES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. ONTARIO BAND OF
DEEP MOISTURE PIVOTS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH JUST ENOUGH MID
LEVEL SUPPORT TO PERHAPS KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MAY EVEN SEE A
TOUCH OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS THIS
OCCURS. MINIMAL FORCING STILL SUGGESTS JUST SOME LIGHT SPOTTY
ACTIVITY. THERMAL PROGS TRENDING COLDER...NOW SUGGESTING SNOW BEING
THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE FOR ALL AREAS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN
THIS DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING JUST A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW AT
BEST. MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO PIVOT SOUTH TUESDAY (ONCE
AGAIN...WITH A TOUCH OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT)...BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. A RAW
DAY FOR SURE...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ONLY ADDING CONSIDERABLE
MORE CHILL TO AFTERNOON READING IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S (PERHAPS
ONLY UPPER 30S FOR PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER).
AFTER PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING...MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK SHAPING UP AS A DRY ONE AS LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WORKS IT MAGIC...BRINGING SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BY THURSDAY BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INTERESTINGLY...12Z ECMWF TOOK A
SIGNIFICANT LEAP TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS DEPICTION OF DRIVING
WAA RAINS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY. STILL NOT SOLD ON THIS
AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO...WITH BLOCKY PATTERN AND SLOW TO RETREAT HIGH
PRESSURE SUGGESTING A SLOWER EVOLUTION. HAVE KINDA SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...BRINGING IN SOME SHOWER MENTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME SUGGESTION FOR A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT GETS
HUNG UP OVER THE LAKES...WITH EXCELLENT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED
BRINGING PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. NO NEED TO GO TOO AGGRESSIVE JUST YET... ESPECIALLY WITH
RECENT WILD FLUCTUATIONS SEEN IN GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
REST OF THIS AFTN: MVFR CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED AT PLN. VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTN. AN ISOLD VFR LGT SHWR COULD DEVELOP NEAR
MBL. NW WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH ISOLD G30-35 KTS POSSIBLE.
TNGT: VFR WITH SOME OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL CIGS. W-NW WINDS
DECREASING TO 5 KTS OR LESS.
MON THRU 18Z: VARIABLE VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS. NW WINDS INCREASE TO
10G20 KTS BY 15Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
OCCLUDED FRONT THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WINDS TO 15G25KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE WILL HOIST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY...STAGGERING THEM SUCH
THAT WHITEFISH BAY/SAINT MARYS/LAKE HURON WILL START LATER THIS
MORNING WITH LAKE MICHIGAN STARTING WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BEFORE STRENGTHENING BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-017-019>022-
025>028-031>034.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SYNOPSIS...MB/HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
MARINE...JA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
1026 AM MDT SUN APR 8 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY...
FLAT NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER W MT AND AB/BC. A
COLDER ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH OVER N CANADA WILL START TO MOVE S AND
START JUST A LITTLE COLD ADVECTION INTO OUR N THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z
KGGW SOUNDING SHOWED 2-3C WARMING PAST 24 HOURS OFF THE SURFACE
THOUGH...SO BALANCED BY A LITTLE COOL ADVECTION...EXPECT VERY
MINOR WARMING OVER YESTERDAY.
THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED THE AIRMASS STILL UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CUMULUS FORMATION IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW THE AIRMASS STABILIZING...THUS
FLATTENING THE CUMULUS AND NO PRECIP...WHICH HRRR COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVELY SHOWS NONE ALSO.
LOW OVERCAST STILL WELL TO OUR N BEHIND WEAK ARCTIC FRONT IN SK.
MODELS BRING THIS STRATUS MOSTLY INTO ND THIS EVE...MAY BRUSH OUR
NE.
12Z KGGW SOUNDING SHOWED 30-35 KT WIND IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...ALTHOUGH
DROPPING A BIT IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS WE START TO MIX OUT MODEST SURFACE INVERSION
SOON. MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUDCOVER ONLY. SIMONSEN
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A
DYNAMIC AND VARIED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
IS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS WAKE TO NARROW AND AMPLIFY
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE U.S.
NORTHERN PLAINS IS SLOWLY RETREATING NORTH AND EAST WHILE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. IMPULSE AND SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE WEST COAST.
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT...POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE VIRGA SPRINKLES THIS
AFTERNOON...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
TODAY...EXPECT CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM AGAIN NORTHWEST TOWARD
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA. SHORT TERM MODEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LESS
CAPE THAN YESTERDAY...LESS THAN 100 J/KG. I WOULD EXPECT
CONVECTIVE SPRINKLES...POSSIBLE VIRGA SHOWERS AT BEST GIVEN THE
CORRESPONDING SHORT TERM MODEL QPF OUTPUT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS
WELL. TRIED TO INDICATE THIS THINKING WITH SILENT POPS IN THE
GRIDS. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 30 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE IS IN
EFFECT FROM 18Z THROUGH 03 Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER FROM THE
WEST...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS CALM AND BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY. FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOMES NEUTRAL. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY TRAVERSES OUR CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AND KEEP ANY
AND ALL PRECIPITATION FAR AWAY WHILE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE
WARMER. WINDS WILL FINALLY INCREASE MORE FROM THE EAST TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD DOMINATED BY THE EAST PACIFIC UPPER TROF
TRANSITIONING FROM OFF THE WEST COAST MIDWEEK INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO EASTERN MONTANA AND GREATER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH LARGER
MODEL SPREAD. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON LIFT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONTANA ON THURSDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO WILL LIFT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY
TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. WARMER UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH REFINED THE
AREA. MODELS DIFFERING ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GFS LIFTING IT IN TO CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT...TAKING MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA UNTIL LIFTING IT NORTH AND DRYING OUT THE REGION ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN CHANGES
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ALL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO FALL AS RAIN. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. A MID LEVEL CUMULUS DECK WILL REAPPEAR
BY MIDDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SEVERAL FEATURES WILL COMBINE TODAY TO HEIGHTEN THE FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE
ZONE 122 IN EASTERN MONTANA. WITH LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN MONTANA
WILL FUNNEL GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AREA. THE RECENT
STORM SYSTEM PROVIDED NEXT TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AREA WHICH
HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS TO TWO
MONTHS. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER
20S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEASON...AHEAD OF THE FULL GREEN-
UP...AREA FUELS ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MARGINAL FIRE DANGERS. THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWEST AND WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTER SUNSET...HUMIDITIES WILL QUICKLY RECOVER
AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FOR FORT PECK
LAKE IN THE FORT PECK LAKE.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1232 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
FROM 09Z-12Z EXPECT LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 15Z WILL SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT NOT GOING
TO INCLUDE IN ANY TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. EAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING EXPECT TO SEE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG
(5SM-6SM) FROM 09Z-14Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/
UPDATE...
DUE TO A LACK OF CAPE AND SHEAR ON PROGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE DYING UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF THUNDER ON UPDATED FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOWERED PROBABILITIES TO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE. AFTERNOON SKY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
A WEAK S/W TROF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TODAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE
FORMS WEST TO NORTHWEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS LATER TODAY
AND BECOME DIFFUSE...AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST OF TEXAS
AND LOWER PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
FROM KAUS TO KSAT THRU 15Z...1 THSD TO 3 THSD SCT WITH CIGS ABV
10 THSD BKN ARE EXPECTED. CIGS 5 THSD TO 10 THSD BKN WEST OF A
KERV TO CARRIZO SPRINGS LINE AND WEST TO KDRT ARE EXPECTED THRU
15Z...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA. AFTER 15Z 4 THSD TO 6 THSD SCT WITH
CIGS ABOVE 10 THSD BKN IS FORECAST. ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA ARE
EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. MVFR
CIGS OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN TO OVC ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER
08Z TONIGHT FROM VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT...AND DEVELOP WEST TO
VCNTY OF KDRT AFTER 11Z MONDAY MORNING. 3 THSD TO 5 THSD SCT WITH
SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED AFTER 16Z MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE MCS STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. 07Z RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...REMNANT INSTABILITY FROM THE MCS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE WASHED OUT BEFORE IT REACHES OUR
CWA...BUT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND NERN TIER OF COUNTIES
DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DUE TO A GENERALLY UNSETTLED AIRMASS ALOFT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK PUTTING
AN END TO CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
OUT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INCREASE AND RESULT IN GREATER ADVECTION OF GULF
MOISTURE. WITH THE WEAKENING HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT AND GOOD MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...COULD SEE SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF MOIST CONDITIONS WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST
WITH DRIER WESTERLIES ACROSS OUR AREA. WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION OF A DRY THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AT LEAST WEAKENING IN THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT DIFFER GREATLY AS
TO WHETHER IT WILL JUST BE WEAK S/W TROUGHING OR THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60 (SLIGHTLY
WARMER READINGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS). A WARMING TREND OF BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL SETTLE IN LATE
WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 62 83 62 84 / 10 20 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 58 83 58 83 / 10 20 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 81 59 83 59 82 / 10 10 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 82 60 83 / 10 20 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 64 85 65 86 / 20 20 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 61 83 60 82 / 10 20 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 60 83 58 83 / 20 10 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 82 59 82 / 10 10 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 61 81 61 81 / 10 20 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 81 62 82 61 83 / 10 10 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 83 61 83 / 10 10 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...02
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1209 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012
.UPDATE...INCREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. PATCH OF
ALTOSTRATUS/ALTOCUMULUS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MATCHES UP WITH
BULLSEYE OF 700MB RH ON THE RUC. RUC SHOWS THIS POCKET OF MOISTURE
GENTLY EXPANDING AND MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHER MODELS SHOW SIMILAR
SITUATION BUT ARE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER A
BIT...WITH CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN CWA BY 18-19Z. A
FEW CUMULUS MAY BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH DEEP MIXING
OCCURRING.
RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PARTLY WITH PERSISTENCE IN
MIND...AND ALSO BECAUSE SKIES ARE CLEARER THERE AT MIDDAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTED HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY THE
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW OF
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT OUT SOME LIGHT QPF THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING LEADING WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVE
THROUGH...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW ABOUT 750MB IS VERY DRY. THE
SOUNDING IS A CLASSIC INVERTED V THAT SHOULD GOBBLE UP ANY RAIN
BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ISOLD
SPRINKLES...NOTHING MEASURABLE THOUGH. THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATE WILL ALLOW FOR EASY MOMENTUM MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANY
VIRGA WOULD ACCENTUATE THIS...SO BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. SEE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BELOW.
DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BRING QUIETER WEATHER TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.
SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO HIGH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA...AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS AS WELL. SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA...WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH DURING THIS TIME...WITH AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING JUST DIURNAL CUMULUS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
THUS...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SUGGEST UPPER 20S FOR
LOWS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 30 IN
THIS AREA. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE EACH NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK MONDAY NIGHT...SO LESS
CONFIDENT OF FROST OCCURRING. REMOVED FROST MENTION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT KEPT IT IN FORECAST FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE
LAKE...WITH PATCHY FROST NEAR THE LAKE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO HIGH.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY BEING REPLACED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW INTO SATURDAY. INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 30S FOR LOWS
EXPECTED.
GFS/ECMWF THEN DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH FEATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THEY BOTH SHOW SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW THEN WEAKENING AS
IT SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS
SHIFTS THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ALSO MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FIRST LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT THEN SHOWS MORE LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT DOES NOT GET
TO THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HPC BLENDED FIELDS
FAVORING A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS...WILL USE
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES AND POPS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING VFR CLOUDS
AROUND 6 OR 7 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WEST WINDS EXPECTED
TO GUST TO AROUND 27 KT BY AFTERNOON AS WELL. MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE DRY AIR WILL
KEEP MOST PRECIP FROM HITTING THE GROUND. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
MARINE...
WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TODAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
TO 7 PM. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AGAIN MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY
STAY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY BREEZY WEST WINDS
TODAY...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SOME FUELS WILL
BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE...THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE WISCONSIN DNR...A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING TODAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-056>060-062>072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WIMBERLEY/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD