Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/07/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
912 AM PDT THU APR 5 2012
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION BRINGING A
COOL START TODAY. SOME LOCATIONS REACHED CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS THIS
MORNING. RED BLUFF DROPPED TO 34 DEGREES...ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE
RECORD LOW OF 33. SACRAMENTO EXECUTIVE AIRPORT WAS 36...WITH THE
RECORD AT 35. SOME OTHER COOL SPOTS INCLUDE LINCOLN AT 31...CHICO
AT 30. UP IN THE SIERRA...STANISLAUS MEADOW NEAR TAMARACK AT 7750
FEET ELEVATION DROPPED TO 1 DEGREE THIS MORNING. UP IN THE
BURNEY/FALL RIVER MILLS AREA...SPOTTERS REPORTED 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THAT FELL WITH SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. RADAR SHOWS
SOME LIGHT RETURNS OFF THE COAST AND EXPECT THESE TO MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ARE ALSO LINGERING OVER THE
SIERRA CREST BUT LITTLE OR NOTHING SHOULD BE FALLING OUT OF IT. COULD
SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS COLD CORE (-34 C AT 500B) PASSES
OVER THE CWA. MOISTURE IS THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH PW OF .24
INCHES AT OAKLAND 54 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND .12 AT RENO WHICH IS 48
PERCENT OF NORMAL. OROGRAPHIC LIFT COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
WRF AND HRRR MODELS REFLECT THIS WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN PLUMAS/LASSEN PARK AND THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO UPDATE NEEDED. EK
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PARKS ITSELF OUT OVER THE ERN PAC NEAR
135W THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED, BEFORE COMING ABOARD LAND LATE
TUESDAY. THE MODELS BROAD BRUSH NRN CAL IN A CYCLONIC
SOUTHWESTERLY PATTERN WITH WAVES TRYING TO SPREAD THEIR PRECIP
PROPAGANDA INTO NORTHWEST CAL. THE TIMING OF ANY PERTURBATIONS WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP AT THIS POINT ARE DIFFICULT, SO WE
KEPT MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL RANGE, SHASTA COUNTY, AND
INTO ADJACENT NRN SAC VALLEY. THE LONGWAVE AXIS FINALLY MOVES
OVER CA AND SPREADS PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SPLIT FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY KEEP A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIP, BUT MINIMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS
6000-7000 FT AND HIGHER INTO TUESDAY, THEN LOWER TO 5000-6000 FT
THURSDAY. JCLAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NORCAL AS UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
DEEPENS TODAY AS STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES SEWD ACROSS
THE S SFO BAY AREA AND INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. AIR MASS
THOUGH IS VERY DRY WITH PW ONLY ABOUT 50% OF NORMAL. VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING
AFTERNOON HRS...AND NWLY FLOW 10-17 KTS OVER MOST OF THE VALLEY.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER MTNS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLD -TSRAGS DURING AFTERNOON...AIDED BY ENHANCED LIFT
FROM TOPOGRAPHY. FREEZING LEVEL ON KOAK RAOB 4300 FT THIS
MORNING...WITH LITTLE INCREASE EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
828 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO. DUE TO THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT WINDS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WERE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR TONIGHT. ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WERE TWEAK WINDS AND SKY TO BETTER LINE UP WITH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND
SHIFT CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY
12Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. FOR
SATURDAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SKY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012/
SHORT TERM...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF AREA AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH OVER GREAT BASIN. SOME REPORTS OF GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH ACROSS
PLAINS AND ALONG FOOTHILLS. TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
WYOMING DURING THE EVENING WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED DRY FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WINDS
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. LATEST NAM AND RUC HINTING AT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVENING BEHIND TROUGH AS
SUBSIDENCE IS AT ITS PEAK. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING
THE EVENING...WITH HINTS OF A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING BY
06Z. RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF AREA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME REBOUND IN HUMIDITY AFTER 8PM AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND WINDS
DECREASE A BIT. WILL ALSO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER EARLY IN THE EVENING AS WEAK LIFT WITH TROUGH CLIPS
THAT AREA. THERE ARE SOME RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP IN WYOMING AT
THIS TIME. FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE DECREASING WIND
TREND...THOUGH MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY ALONG NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS BEHIND EXITING TROUGH. STRONG WINDS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CROSS MOUNTAIN
FLOW AROUND 50 KTS BEFORE DECREASING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SHOW WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS PLAINS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WEAKENS BY 18Z. WINDS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ENOUGH ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS TO STAY BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BEHIND TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS PLAINS.
LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO COLORADO...THEN THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ACCORDING TO THE QPF VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS...BENIGN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ADHERE
TO NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK SURGE TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE PLAINS THE REST OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS SPARSE MOISTURE PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
INDICATED...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSLOPE OVER SOME OF THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY. IT STAYS DRY OTHERWISE THE REST OF MONDAY...WITH A BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION PROGGED ON THE QPF FIELDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES...
SUNDAY`S HIGHS WARM UP 3-6 C FROM SATURDAY`S HIGHS. MONDAY`S HIGHS
ARE ARE 0-2 C WARMER THAN SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BETTER SOLUTION OF THE UPPER
FEATURES FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT OVER OUR CWA. STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW IS PROGGED THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY. IN FACT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE A JET MAXIMUM OVER THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL BAD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
..IN FACT...THE ECMWF HAS DECENT MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM WHAT
THE 4-7 DAY GFE INIT GRIDS HAVE.
AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS...
A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY AT BJC WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS PREVAILING.
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 02Z WITH TROUGH PASSAGE WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING. MODELS SHOW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT AS WEAK ANTICYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
THOUGH RUC AND NAM SLOWER WITH DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD DELAY WIND
DECREASE. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 12 KTS BY 18Z. VFR TO CONTINUE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
UPDATE/AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPIN AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB, BUT THE WRF-NMMB WAS
BETTER AT 925MB WITH A MODEL TIE AT 850MB. SO WE WILL USE THE GFS
FOR THE UPPER AIR FEATURES AND THE WRF-NNMB FOR THE THERMAL PROFILES.
WE ARE GOING TO EXPAND THE FREEZE WARNING INTO SECTIONS OF THE PHL
METRO AREA BASED ON THE CONTINUATION AND PRETTY GOOD CORROBORATION
OF THE STAT GUIDANCE. THE GREATEST CONFIDENT AREA IS THE LEHIGH
VALLEY, BERKS COUNTY AND NORTHERN NJ WHERE THE INITIAL WARNING WAS
ISSUED THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT BEARS SOME SIMILARITY TO LAST NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROF.
THIS TROF AND THE H250 JET PRECEDING IT WILL ASSIST GETTING SOME OF
THE CIRRUS IN THE VIRGINIAS AND MARYLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
OUR CWA DURING THE EVENING. BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF, THERE MAY
VERY WELL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS TOWARD MORNING AS THE CAA SHOT
MOVES THROUGH. REGARDLESS THIS IS MORE OF AN ADVECTION AND NOT
RADIATIONAL TYPE FREEZE. ITS EITHER FREEZE OR NOT WITH NOT MUCH
FROST EXPECTED. THE INCIPIENT AIR MASS IS COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, NOT OFTEN WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TYPE THAT IN 2012.
STAT GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE. WHERE THEY WERE NOT, BASED ON THIS
MORNING`S MINS, WE LEANED TWD THE COLDER NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY. SO IN
SPITE OF A SHARPENING 500MB TROF ALOFT, WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
GENERATE MANY CLOUDS AT ALL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEPARTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BE GREATER THAN TODAY. WE ARE
FORECASTING A BREEZIER DAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FORECAST
850MB AND 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE SUGGESTING TAKING A DEGREE OR TWO
OFF OF TODAY`S MAX TEMPS, THUS A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIR, DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE
THICKNESSES FROM RISING SHARPLY SATURDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP THE MAX
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY, SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE PLACE, HELPING THICKNESSES RISE AND
BRINGING MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MORE FROST/FREEZE STATEMENTS THIS WEEKEND.
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET SQUEEZED OUT OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADES BACK
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND ABSORBS ANOTHER LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE LOW AND MID/UPPER TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THESE FEATURES, RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BACK INTO THE FORECAST, ALBEIT SMALL CHANCES. HOPEFULLY WE
CAN GET SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL AFTER BEING SO DRY LATELY, NEARLY 25
TO 50 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL IN FACT FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO.
WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE EAST, TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, THEN
FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING BUT THEN
PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
LATEST HRRR AND HI RES NMMB SUPPORT THOUGHTS ABOUT A SEA BREEZE
STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH INLAND, ALTHOUGH IT DID REACH KACY THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE IF BELOW VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD GET GUSTY WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 15-20 KNOTS SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
COULD GUST EVEN HIGHER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...
A SEA BREEZE FRONT IS GOING TO PRODUCE A LOW CONFIDENCE WIND
DIRECTION FORECAST THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING TROF WILL ALSO KEEP
WINDS A BIT ON THE VARIABLE SIDE. THANKFULLY OVERALL SPEEDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. ONCE THE TROF CLEARS, A PREVAILING NORTH WIND WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF.
WE ARE GOING TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN
THESE AREAS. ONCE AGAIN THERE COULD ALSO BE A SWELL RELATED
COMPONENT TO THE ADVISORY. FARTHER NORTH AND IN DELAWARE BAY, THE
FORECAST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG OR OCCUR BEFORE
THERE IS A GREATER AIR AND WATER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL.
ONCE THIS SURGE DEPARTS WINDS, LIKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN DROP OR REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT, WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING A SEA BREEZE OR CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION TO
OCCUR.
OUTLOOK...
WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY, THEN INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY FOR
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE ARE GOING TO HOLD OFF ON MARYLAND
AND DELAWARE AS THE NEEDED WIND SPEED CRITERIA IS HIGHER AND THE
OVERALL FORECAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER IN
DELMARVA.
THIS MAY NOT BE THE LAST DAY OF CONCERN AS A LOW DEPARTING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT FURTHER ON SATURDAY WITH
NO EXPECTED INCREASE IN DEW POINT OR HUMIDITY LEVELS. SO A WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. THE OVERALL GRADIENT
SHOULD BE LESS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE ARE NOT GOING TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS WITH THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THE TIDAL DEPARTURES CONTINUE TO EASE AS THE
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER WITHOUT A LONG NORTHEASTERLY SPIRAL.
IF WE ARE WRONG, IT WOULD BE IN CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND SUSSEX COUNTY
DE WHERE MAINTAINING CURRENT DEPARTURES WOULD JUST GET THEM TO MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO
IN THE INTEREST OF CAUTION.
AFTER THAT, THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING SPRING TIDES WITH THE
FULL MOON AND THE EKMAN SPIRAL EFFECT FROM THE LIKELY AND
PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST MAY CAUSE MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING WITH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY, WE WILL ONLY NEED
DEPARTURES OF ABOUT HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TO REACH THE CRITERIA.
IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY, THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND CHESAPEAKE BAY,
THE NORTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL FRESHWATER
RUNOFF SHOULD MITIGATE ANY TIDAL RELATED PROBLEMS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060>062-
067>069.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ007>010-015-
020>022-027.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIGI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
153 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MERGES
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND CARVES
OUT A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH STAYING ON COURSE. WE DID NUDGE MAX
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY AS THE TREND HAS HELD THROUGH THE MORNING. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE CAA STRATOCU CLOUDS UP NORTH ARE RUNNING OUT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. PLUS THERE IS ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRESSURE
PATTERN FORMING OVER OUR CWA. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250MB JET
IS OVER OUR CWA, SO SOME OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH
WILL MAKE SOME MOVEMENT INTO OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WE DID UP THE
SKY COVER SOUTH.
TODAY GENERALLY SHOULD BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
A BIT MORE THAN 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND (LIKELY MORE SOUTH THAN
NORTH), WINDS STARTED MODERATE FROM THE NORTH, BUT AS A RATHER
WEAK AND DRY TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT. THE H925 FLOW IS IN OPPOSITION TO A
SEA BREEZE LATER TODAY, BUT IT IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WE HAVE A SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING AND EXPECT IT TO REACH A FEW MILES INLAND,
INCLUDING TO AROUND THE ATLANTIC CITY AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT
WILL REACH FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE AN EXPANSION LATER
TODAY IN PARTS OF DELMARVA AND THE LOCAL PHL METRO AREA.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT. AGAIN, HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE APPARENT NORTH THAN SOUTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN IN A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL WAY AT FIRST, BUT THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT MAY CAUSE THEM TO PICK UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT
DESPITE SOME PARTIAL DECOUPLING. WE THEREFORE HAVE BEEN CAREFUL
ABOUT DROPPING THE BOTTOM OUT FROM TEMPERATURES. WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE HWO. OUR FORECAST MINS ARE A BLEND OF CONTINUITY
AND STAT GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL BE
THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD. HOWEVER,
IT WILL BE REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE AND AN H5 TROF FOR THE LATER
PORTION OF THE PD. ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SERN CONUS COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST BEFORE RETROGRADING WWD TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST MDL
RUNS ARE NOW MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER OFF THE COAST WITH THIS SYS
THAN PREV RUNS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, AS IT MOVES NWD THEN NWWD.
WITH THE HIGH CONTROLLING THE WX THRU SUNDAY, EXPECT DRY CONDS
WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NRML TEMPS. THERE IS VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.
THEN THE MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND CONFIDENCE DROPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH ANOTHER LOW
DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE PLAINS WILL HELP CARVE OUT A LARGE TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS. SEVERAL WAVES AND WEAK FRONTS WILL ROTATE THRU
THIS TROF THRU MIDWEEK AND BRING SHOTS OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE GFS,AS USUAL,IS WETTER THAN THE REST OF THE MDL
GUIDANCE, AND AT THIS MDL DISTANCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHEN THE WETTEST PD WILL BE, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE
AT SOME POINT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO, WHILE THE MDLS SEEM TO
HAVE SOME DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL FEATURES, THEY DISAGREE
ON JUST HOW THEY INTERACT. SO, FOR NOW, WILL JUST KEEP SCHC AND
LOW CHC POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MODERATE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING BUT THEN
PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS MAINLY BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
LATEST HRRR AND HI RES NMMB SUPPORT THOUGHTS ABOUT A SEA BREEZE
STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH INLAND, ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT IT TO REACH
KACY LATE TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 15-20
KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH, BUT THE PUSH BEHIND THE TROUGH DOESN`T
LOOK AS SUBSTANTIAL AS THE ONE THAT WAS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT CAME
THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP A
STEADY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE STILL THINK WINDS WILL FALL SHORT OF THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA AROUND OUR FORECAST AREA, SO WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE DRY FINE FUELS AND THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW DEPARTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MIGHT INCREASE THE GRADIENT
WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LATE THIS MORNING, DEPARTURES (WERE THEY TO REMAIN CONSTANT)
SUPPORTED THE POSSIBILITY OF JUST REACHING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE OFS, HOWEVER,
SUGGEST THOSE DEPARTURES WOULD DIMINISH AS THE NORTH FLOW
DIMINISHES, AND SO WE THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL AVOID ANY
FLOODING THIS EVENING. WE WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HWO IN
THE INTEREST OF CAUTION.
AFTER THAT, THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING SPRING TIDES WITH THE
FULL MOON AND THE EKMAN SPIRAL EFFECT FROM THE LIKELY AND
PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST MAY CAUSE MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING WITH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM FRIDAY
EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY, WE WILL ONLY NEED DEPARTURES
OF ABOUT HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TO REACH THE CRITERIA. IN UPPER
DELAWARE BAY, THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND CHESAPEAKE BAY, THE
NORTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL FRESHWATER RUNOFF
SHOULD MITIGATE ANY TIDAL RELATED PROBLEMS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060>062.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
020>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DELISI/GIGI/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DELISI/GIGI
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DELISI/GIGI/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...DELISI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DELISI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1146 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MERGES
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND CARVES
OUT A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH STAYING ON COURSE. WE DID NUDGE MAX
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY AS THE TREND HAS HELD THROUGH THE MORNING. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE CAA STRATOCU CLOUDS UP NORTH ARE RUNNING OUT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. PLUS THERE IS ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRESSURE
PATTERN FORMING OVER OUR CWA. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250MB JET
IS OVER OUR CWA, SO SOME OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH
WILL MAKE SOME MOVEMENT INTO OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WE DID UP THE
SKY COVER SOUTH.
TODAY GENERALLY SHOULD BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
A BIT MORE THAN 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND (LIKELY MORE SOUTH THAN
NORTH), WINDS STARTED MODERATE FROM THE NORTH, BUT AS A RATHER
WEAK AND DRY TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT. THE H925 FLOW IS IN OPPOSITION TO A
SEA BREEZE LATER TODAY, BUT IT IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WE HAVE A SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING, BUT WE AREN`T CARRYING IT VERY FAR INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT
WILL REACH FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE AN EXPANSION LATER
TODAY IN PARTS OF DELMARVA AND THE LOCAL PHL METRO AREA.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT. AGAIN, HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE APPARENT NORTH THAN SOUTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN IN A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL WAY AT FIRST, BUT THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT MAY CAUSE THEM TO PICK UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT
DESPITE SOME PARTIAL DECOUPLING. WE THEREFORE HAVE BEEN CAREFUL
ABOUT DROPPING THE BOTTOM OUT FROM TEMPERATURES. WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE HWO. OUR FORECAST MINS ARE A BLEND OF CONTINUITY
AND STAT GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL BE
THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD. HOWEVER,
IT WILL BE REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE AND AN H5 TROF FOR THE LATER
PORTION OF THE PD. ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SERN CONUS COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST BEFORE RETROGRADING WWD TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST MDL
RUNS ARE NOW MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER OFF THE COAST WITH THIS SYS
THAN PREV RUNS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, AS IT MOVES NWD THEN NWWD.
WITH THE HIGH CONTROLLING THE WX THRU SUNDAY, EXPECT DRY CONDS
WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NRML TEMPS. THERE IS VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.
THEN THE MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND CONFIDENCE DROPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH ANOTHER LOW
DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE PLAINS WILL HELP CARVE OUT A LARGE TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS. SEVERAL WAVES AND WEAK FRONTS WILL ROTATE THRU
THIS TROF THRU MIDWEEK AND BRING SHOTS OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE GFS,AS USUAL,IS WETTER THAN THE REST OF THE MDL
GUIDANCE, AND AT THIS MDL DISTANCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHEN THE WETTEST PD WILL BE, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE
AT SOME POINT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO, WHILE THE MDLS SEEM TO
HAVE SOME DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL FEATURES, THEY DISAGREE
ON JUST HOW THEY INTERACT. SO, FOR NOW, WILL JUST KEEP SCHC AND
LOW CHC POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY LIMITATIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MODERATE NORTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEN PICK UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LATEST HRRR AND HI RES NMMB SUPPORT THOUGHTS ABOUT A SEA BREEZE
STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH INLAND AND WE MAINTAINED IT TO THE EAST OF
KACY IN 12Z TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 15-20
KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH, BUT THE PUSH BEHIND THE TROUGH DOESN`T
LOOK AS SUBSTANTIAL AS THE ONE THAT WAS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT CAME
THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP A
STEADY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE STILL THINK WINDS WILL FALL SHORT OF THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA AROUND OUR FORECAST AREA, SO WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE DRY FINE FUELS AND THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW DEPARTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MIGHT INCREASE THE GRADIENT
WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LATE THIS MORNING, DEPARTURES (WERE THEY TO REMAIN CONSTANT)
SUPPORTED THE POSSIBILITY OF JUST REACHING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE OFS, HOWEVER,
SUGGEST THOSE DEPARTURES WOULD DIMINISH AS THE NORTH FLOW
DIMINISHES, AND SO WE THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL AVOID ANY
FLOODING THIS EVENING. WE WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HWO IN
THE INTEREST OF CAUTION.
AFTER THAT, THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING SPRING TIDES WITH THE
FULL MOON AND THE EKMAN SPIRAL EFFECT FROM THE LIKELY AND
PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST MAY CAUSE MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING WITH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM FRIDAY
EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY, WE WILL ONLY NEED DEPARTURES
OF ABOUT HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TO REACH THE CRITERIA. IN UPPER
DELAWARE BAY, THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND CHESAPEAKE BAY, THE
NORTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL FRESHWATER RUNOFF
SHOULD MITIGATE ANY TIDAL RELATED PROBLEMS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060>062.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
020>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DELISI/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DELISI/GIGI
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DELISI/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DELISI/GIGI/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...DELISI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DELISI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1121 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MERGES
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND CARVES
OUT A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FORECAST ON TRACK. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO LOW ON MAX
TEMPS. WE WILL SEE HOW THEY RESPOND THE REST OF MORNING AND MAKE
ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS BY THE NEXT UPDATE. LATEST HRRR AND HI RES
NMMB SUPPORT THOUGHTS ABOUT A SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH
INLAND.
TODAY GENERALLY SHOULD BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
A BIT MORE THAN 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND (LIKELY MORE SOUTH THAN
NORTH), BUT WE ARE CARRYING A SUNNY FORECAST. WINDS WILL START AS
MODERATE FROM THE NORTH, BUT AS A RATHER WEAK AND DRY TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A
BIT. THE H925 FLOW IS IN OPPOSITION TO A SEA BREEZE LATER TODAY,
BUT IT IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WE HAVE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING, BUT
WE AREN`T CARRYING IT VERY FAR INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT
WILL REACH FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE AN EXPANSION LATER
TODAY IN PARTS OF DELMARVA AND THE LOCAL PHL METRO AREA.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT. AGAIN, HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE APPARENT NORTH THAN SOUTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN IN A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL WAY AT FIRST, BUT THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT MAY CAUSE THEM TO PICK UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT
DESPITE SOME PARTIAL DECOUPLING. WE THEREFORE HAVE BEEN CAREFUL
ABOUT DROPPING THE BOTTOM OUT FROM TEMPERATURES. WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE HWO. OUR FORECAST MINS ARE A BLEND OF CONTINUITY
AND STAT GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL BE
THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD. HOWEVER,
IT WILL BE REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE AND AN H5 TROF FOR THE LATER
PORTION OF THE PD. ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SERN CONUS COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST BEFORE RETROGRADING WWD TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST MDL
RUNS ARE NOW MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER OFF THE COAST WITH THIS SYS
THAN PREV RUNS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, AS IT MOVES NWD THEN NWWD.
WITH THE HIGH CONTROLLING THE WX THRU SUNDAY, EXPECT DRY CONDS
WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NRML TEMPS. THERE IS VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.
THEN THE MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND CONFIDENCE DROPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH ANOTHER LOW
DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE PLAINS WILL HELP CARVE OUT A LARGE TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS. SEVERAL WAVES AND WEAK FRONTS WILL ROTATE THRU
THIS TROF THRU MIDWEEK AND BRING SHOTS OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE GFS,AS USUAL,IS WETTER THAN THE REST OF THE MDL
GUIDANCE, AND AT THIS MDL DISTANCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHEN THE WETTEST PD WILL BE, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE
AT SOME POINT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO, WHILE THE MDLS SEEM TO
HAVE SOME DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL FEATURES, THEY DISAGREE
ON JUST HOW THEY INTERACT. SO, FOR NOW, WILL JUST KEEP SCHC AND
LOW CHC POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY LIMITATIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MODERATE NORTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEN PICK UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LATEST HRRR AND HI RES NMMB SUPPORT THOUGHTS ABOUT A SEA BREEZE
STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH INLAND AND WE MAINTAINED IT TO THE EAST OF
KACY IN 12Z TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 15-20
KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
WE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW THE CRITERIA.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK TROUGH, BUT THE PUSH BEHIND THE TROUGH DOESN`T LOOK AS
SUBSTANTIAL AS THE ONE THAT WAS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH
DURING THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP A
STEADY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE STILL THINK WINDS WILL FALL SHORT OF THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA AROUND OUR FORECAST AREA, SO WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE DRY FINE FUELS AND THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW DEPARTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MIGHT INCREASE THE GRADIENT
WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS MORNING, DEPARTURES (WERE THEY TO REMAIN CONSTANT) SUPPORTED
THE POSSIBILITY OF JUST REACHING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
COAST, RARITAN BAY AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE OFS, HOWEVER,
SUGGEST THOSE DEPARTURES WOULD DIMINISH AS THE NORTH FLOW
DIMINISHES, AND SO WE THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL AVOID ANY
FLOODING THIS EVENING. WE WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HWO IN
THE INTEREST OF CAUTION.
AFTER THAT, THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING SPRING TIDES WITH THE
FULL MOON AND THE EKMAN SPIRAL EFFECT FROM THE LIKELY AND
PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST MAY CAUSE MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING WITH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM FRIDAY
EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY, WE WILL ONLY NEED DEPARTURES
OF ABOUT HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TO REACH THE CRITERIA. IN UPPER
DELAWARE BAY, THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND CHESAPEAKE BAY, THE
NORTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL FRESHWATER RUNOFF
SHOULD MITIGATE ANY TIDAL RELATED PROBLEMS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060>062.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
020>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DELISI/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DELISI/GIGI
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DELISI/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DELISI/GIGI/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...DELISI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DELISI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
909 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MERGES
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND CARVES
OUT A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FORECAST ON TRACK. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO LOW ON MAX
TEMPS. WE WILL SEE HOW THEY RESPOND THE REST OF MORNING AND MAKE
ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS BY THE NEXT UPDATE. LATEST HRRR AND HI RES
NMMB SUPPORT THOUGHTS ABOUT A SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH
INLAND.
TODAY GENERALLY SHOULD BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
A BIT MORE THAN 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND (LIKELY MORE SOUTH THAN
NORTH), BUT WE ARE CARRYING A SUNNY FORECAST. WINDS WILL START AS
MODERATE FROM THE NORTH, BUT AS A RATHER WEAK AND DRY TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A
BIT. THE H925 FLOW IS IN OPPOSITION TO A SEA BREEZE LATER TODAY,
BUT IT IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WE HAVE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING, BUT
WE AREN`T CARRYING IT VERY FAR INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT
WILL REACH FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE AN EXPANSION LATER
TODAY IN PARTS OF DELMARVA AND THE LOCAL PHL METRO AREA.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT. AGAIN, HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE APPARENT NORTH THAN SOUTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN IN A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL WAY AT FIRST, BUT THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT MAY CAUSE THEM TO PICK UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT
DESPITE SOME PARTIAL DECOUPLING. WE THEREFORE HAVE BEEN CAREFUL
ABOUT DROPPING THE BOTTOM OUT FROM TEMPERATURES. WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE HWO. OUR FORECAST MINS ARE A BLEND OF CONTINUITY
AND STAT GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL BE
THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD. HOWEVER,
IT WILL BE REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE AND AN H5 TROF FOR THE LATER
PORTION OF THE PD. ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SERN CONUS COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST BEFORE RETROGRADING WWD TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST MDL
RUNS ARE NOW MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER OFF THE COAST WITH THIS SYS
THAN PREV RUNS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, AS IT MOVES NWD THEN NWWD.
WITH THE HIGH CONTROLLING THE WX THRU SUNDAY, EXPECT DRY CONDS
WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NRML TEMPS. THERE IS VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FCST.
THEN THE MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND CONFIDENCE DROPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH ANOTHER LOW
DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE PLAINS WILL HELP CARVE OUT A LARGE TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS. SEVERAL WAVES AND WEAK FRONTS WILL ROTATE THRU
THIS TROF THRU MIDWEEK AND BRING SHOTS OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE GFS,AS USUAL,IS WETTER THAN THE REST OF THE MDL
GUIDANCE, AND AT THIS MDL DISTANCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHEN THE WETTEST PD WILL BE, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE
AT SOME POINT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO, WHILE THE MDLS SEEM TO
HAVE SOME DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL FEATURES, THEY DISAGREE
ON JUST HOW THEY INTERACT. SO, FOR NOW, WILL JUST KEEP SCHC AND
LOW CHC POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY LIMITATIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MODERATE NORTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEN PICK UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LATEST HRRR AND HI RES NMMB SUPPORT THOUGHTS ABOUT A SEA BREEZE
STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH INLAND AND WE MAINTAINED IT TO THE EAST OF
KACY IN 12Z TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 15-20
KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF
LITTLE EGG INLET UNTIL 1 PM AS SEAS AND EVEN WINDS WERE AT
CRITERIA AT BUOY9. ALL OTHER ADVISORIES HAD ENDED. WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MORNING. THEY WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH, BUT THE PUSH BEHIND THE TROUGH
DOESN`T LOOK AS SUBSTANTIAL AS THE ONE THAT WAS BEHIND THE FRONT
THAT CAME THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP A
STEADY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE STILL THINK WINDS WILL FALL SHORT OF THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA AROUND OUR FORECAST AREA, SO WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE DRY FINE FUELS AND THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW DEPARTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MIGHT INCREASE THE GRADIENT
WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EARLY THIS MORNING, DEPARTURES (WERE THEY TO REMAIN CONSTANT)
SUPPORTED THE POSSIBILITY OF EVENING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
COAST, RARITAN BAY AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE OFS, HOWEVER, SUGGEST
THOSE DEPARTURES WOULD DIMINISH AS THE NORTH FLOW DIMINISHES, AND SO
WE THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL AVOID ANY FLOODING THIS EVENING.
WE WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HWO IN THE INTEREST OF CAUTION.
AFTER THAT, THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING SPRING TIDES WITH THE
FULL MOON AND THE EKMAN SPIRAL EFFECT FROM THE LIKELY AND
PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST MAY CAUSE MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING WITH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM FRIDAY
EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY, WE WILL ONLY NEED DEPARTURES
OF ABOUT HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TO REACH THE CRITERIA. IN UPPER
DELAWARE BAY, THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND CHESAPEAKE BAY, THE
NORTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL FRESHWATER RUNOFF
SHOULD MITIGATE ANY TIDAL RELATED PROBLEMS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060>062.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
020>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ452>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DELISI/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DELISI/GIGI
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DELISI/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DELISI/GIGI/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...DELISI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DELISI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
322 PM EDT Thu Apr 5 2012
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST OR 9 PM CST
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Thus far we have not seen a consistent squall line along the leading
edge of the cold pool in central Alabama (now roughly along the I-65
corridor). The thunderstorms have fluctuated in intensity. We
currently appear to be in a reorganization phase with numerous
updrafts forming in the past 60-90 minutes along the leading edge of
the advancing cold pool. While the storms have generally not been
"severe" intensity in the past hour or so, peak winds at a few
observations along I-65 have been in the 25 to 40 knot range so the
thunderstorms have been producing some strong winds.
What the future holds for the developing MCS is still a bit of a
mystery. The environment is generally supportive of severe weather
with SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 j/kg and about 40-50 knots of
effective shear. However, the cloud top sampling tool on recent IR
satellite frames suggests that storms are not accessing all of the
potential instability. Sampled satellite cloud tops are about 5000
feet below RUC forecast equilibrium level heights along most of the
length of the squall line. Therefore, there is likely some sort of
environmental factors at play which are limiting the overall
strength of the storms. The storms are now entering an area along
and east of I-65 which saw fairly widespread cloud cover during the
late morning hours, and it`s possible that influenced the rate of
destabilization. Radar loops from KTLH also suggested the presence
of one or more MCVs behind convection in the northeast Gulf of
Mexico, and there may be some localized subsidence around the
periphery of the associated mid-upper level cloud shield.
Therefore, severe weather potential may be more isolated that much
of the model guidance had originally indicated. However, the
combination of instability and shear, as well as the close approach
of a potent upper level low support some threat of severe weather
into the evening hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has recently
been issued for parts of our area to address this threat.
&&
.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...
The main squall line continues to develop across portions of
south-central Alabama, and this will affect the forecast area
through the evening hours with strong to severe thunderstorms
expected. The current extrapolation of the main line places it over
southeast Alabama during the mid-afternoon hours and over towards
Valdosta around or after 8 pm. However, scattered convection will
develop ahead of this line which will have to be monitored as well.
Steep lapse rates and a moderately unstable airmass will promote the
risk of large hail and damaging winds.
.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
The primary vort lobe will be east of the area Friday morning with
the associated cold front pushing into the northern portion of the
FL Peninsula before 12Z. We kept in a very low PoP for TS along the
boundary for a couple of hours Friday morning. However, it is quite
possible that all of the convection will be southeast of the area by
the start of the period. A secondary surge of cooler air will push
across the area behind a back door cold front Friday afternoon. High
pressure will then build southeast from the Great Lakes to our
forecast area by Saturday night. Therefore, this period will be
dominated by fair weather and cooler temperatures than we have seen
for quite some time. Highs on Friday will top out at 80 in the
warmest locations in FL with most areas seeing highs in the 70s. In
fact, areas northeast of Adel may not even reach 70. Lows Friday
night will dip into the 40s across most of the forecast area and in
some cases will get colder than we have seen in over a month. Highs
on Saturday will rebound nicely into the comfortable mid 70s will
low humidity. Saturday night should see temps reach the lower 40s
over our GA and inland FL Big Bend zones, the coldest readings since
March 5th.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
A weak, mostly dry cold front will move southeast through the region
Sunday afternoon and evening as a fairly deep long wave trough
begins to take shape over the eastern CONUS to start the new week.
Another cold front (even drier than the first) will quickly pass
through our area Monday, further enhancing the cooling trend. The
latest ECMWF runs have joined the GFS in forecasting a significant
cool down for the eastern CONUS, with the 850 mb freezing line
reaching central GA Tuesday morning. Thereafter the GFS and ECMWF
diverge, as the ECMWF forecasts the deep long wave trough to
essentially cut off over GA while the GFS quickly reverts back to a
500 mb pattern resembling the current one over the CONUS. Despite
these differences, neither solution would result in a significant
rain event for our forecast area (though a few slight chance events
are possible as minor disturbances rotate through the broader
longwave trough).
As for temperatures, both solutions indicate a return to more
seasonal temperatures, with highs in the 70s, lows in the 40s, and
much lower humidity. Depending on how the details play out,
temperatures could be even a little cooler than this. It looks like
we`re finally going to get our early March weather...a month
late.
&&
.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
West to southwest winds will shift to offshore behind a cold front
overnight and increase to exercise caution levels before daybreak.
There will be some decrease in wind speeds during the day on Friday.
However, a second cold front will cross the region late in the day
switching winds to the northeast and increasing them to advisory
levels by Friday night. Winds and seas will then decrease to below
headline criteria by Saturday afternoon as high pressure settles
south over the marine area. The high will then settle south of the
area switching winds to onshore and keeping them light.
&&
.AVIATION (THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)...
Current extrapolation of the developing squall line in Alabama
places it near KDHN between 20-22z and KECP between 21-23z. The TAF
sites farther east will see later arrival times. Scattered
convection will likely also develop ahead of the line and could
affect areas prior to the arrival of the main squall line. Some of
this convection could be severe with hail and strong to severe wind
gusts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Once the numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms exit the region tonight and early Friday, much cooler
and drier air will rush into the region from the northwest. While
afternoon relative humidities are now expected to remain above
critical levels at all areas on Friday, much lower values are
expected across the Tri-State region on Saturday. With this in mind,
a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag Warning may be needed in future
forecasts for parts of the area on Saturday. This need will likely
be dependent on other resultant variables (such as ERCs,
Dispersions, 20 foot wind speeds, and Fuel Moisture) falling into
place by Saturday afternoon. These dry conditions will likely last
through Sunday, so additional watches or warnings could be
forthcoming.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 61 79 46 76 42 / 70 10 0 0 0
Panama City 63 80 55 75 53 / 70 10 0 0 0
Dothan 57 76 49 75 48 / 60 10 0 0 0
Albany 58 72 44 76 44 / 70 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 60 75 46 75 43 / 70 20 0 0 0
Cross City 63 80 49 77 44 / 70 20 0 0 0
Apalachicola 65 78 54 73 51 / 70 10 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale Discussion...Lamers
Short Term/Marine...Wool
Fire Weather...Gould
Long Term...Fournier
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
239 PM MDT THU APR 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW AXIS
CONTINUES TO OUR WEST WITH A MOIST IMPULSE PINWHEELING
PRECIPITATION INTO SE OREGON. MESONET AMOUNTS OF 0.10 OR GREATER
HAVE BEEN NEAR THE SW HARNEY-LAKE COUNTY LINE. SURFACE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NW WHICH WILL SUPPORT TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OVER
SE OREGON AND OWYHEE COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE
P-TYPE BEING SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ALSO POSSIBLE UNDER
RADAR ECHOES AND/OR BRIGHTER/COLDER CLOUD TOPS IN CENTRAL
IDAHO...THE SOUTHERN SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS BAKER COUNTY.
THESE NORTHERN AREAS WERE SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS REPORTED BUT BY
RAWS. RUC IS NOT SHOWING MORE THAN 100 CAPE IN THE CWFA AND LATEST
NAM12 SOUNDING AT BOISE IS CAPPED SO DID NOT ADD IN THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 00Z BUT LEFT THEM IN ACROSS MAINLY OREGON AND THE PAYETTE
NATIONAL FOREST/OWYHEE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINING COOL
WITH HIGHS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY AND TWO MORE
FROSTY NIGHTS IN THE VALLEY BEFORE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL SATURDAY AS THE WELL ADVERTISED RIDGE STARTS TO PROGRESS
OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SIGNIFICANT WARMING
STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WESTERN US. THE RIDGE BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...PEAKING
ON MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A CYCLONE OVER EASTERN NOAM DEEPENING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS COMING MONDAY. THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY
COULD REACH 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE WARMING
IN A SOUTHEAST WIND. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO COME DOWN LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWERING TEMPS BACK DOWN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CAN NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OREGON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY UP
TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
10-15 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....CB/WH
AVIATION.....CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
511 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...
258 PM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE FREEZING CONDITIONS TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
SKIES ARE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHIFTS SOUTH
ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AR. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THIS LOOKS TO SET THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS HAS SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIAN. IT APPEARS WINDS WILL NOT
BECOME TOTALLY CALM OVERNIGHT. INSTEAD IT APPEARS THAT A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT OR UNDER 5 KT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS WE REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. THIS MAY
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FROST ACCRETION...EXCEPT FOR PROTECTED AREAS.
I AM EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE FOX VALLEY WESTWARD. THIS IS WHERE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR. I HAVE CHOSEN TO UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WARMER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE CHICAGO AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DOWNTOWN.
IN SPITE OF THIS...I HAVE CHOSEN TO INCLUDE COOK COUNTY IN THE
FREEZE WARNING FOR AREAS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WHERE NEAR TO JUST BELOW FREEZING CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY.
COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT LOOKS TO
SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN QUITE
POSSIBLE AS LIGHT WINDS SET UP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.
A WARM UP LOOKS TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA. THIS SHOULD SETUP SOUTHERN FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
60S AREA WIDE. IT APPEARS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN AND LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT THIS FAR SOUTH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THEREFORE I CONTINUED THE
CHANCE MENTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT NOT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION
BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN GETTING INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH
WESTERLY FLOW.
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
OCCURS...ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS. SO
THE MAIN STORY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE COOLER WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP BELOW
FREEZING...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
SOME CONCERN THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. RUC SOUNDINGS AND 925 MB RH FIELDS REALLY SATURATE
AROUND THE 1.5 KFT LAYER. WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE LAKE INSTABILITY
THAT COULD ALLOW A FEW CLOUDS TO POP...WOULDNT EXPECT IT TO BE ANY
THICKER THAN FEW...BUT ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE RUC IS REALLY
OVERDOING THIS FEATURE AND THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TO DRY
TO SUPPORT ANY CLOUDS AND NAM/HRRR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS.
WILL LEAVE THE 22Z AMD AS IS WITH NO MENTION OF OVERNIGHT CLOUDS.
SHEA
PREVIOUS 18Z DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS MAY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE MID/LATE
EVENING HRS WITH SPEEDS WELL UNDER 10KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN A
BIT MORE EASTERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE BACK UP 10-12
KTS.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST CU/STRATOCU COVERAGE IS
FEW AT BEST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND WITH NO ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...WILL REMOVE FROM THE TAFS. OTHERWISE
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN LEAVING SKC BY THIS EVENING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH EVENING WIND SPEED/DIRECTION/GUSTS
* LOW
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE...ELSE VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SLT CHC OF SHRA...ELSE VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
207 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...ALLOWING NORTHEAST WINDS
CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LAKE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY EARLY
SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. A COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTH FROM THIS
LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE CANADIAN LOW WILL REDEVELOP/COMBINE WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND A PERIOD OF
BLUSTERY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...WILL BE
EXTENDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
WAVES 4 FT OR GREATER THROUGH THAT TIME.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...1 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
IN...FREEZE WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...1 AM
FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
907 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING IT RECENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WRAY AREA. WRAY AWOS
INDICATED PEAK WINDS AT 45 MPH AS IT PASSED...BUT SO FAR IT
APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING THERE AND WANT TO
GET A FEEL FOR HOW LONG WINDS WILL LAST BEFORE CONSIDERING A NEW
ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS BEHIND FRONT...STARTING TO SEE
SOME FOG AND MVFR/IFR STRATUS DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT IN AREA OF
CLEARING AND HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
FOR THUNDER CHANCES...WITH EXCEPTION OF RECENT RUN OF HRRR MODELS
NOT REALLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND GIVEN OBSERVED INVERSION ALOFT AND EXPECTED CINH VALUES IT
WILL BE TOUGH TO INITIATE AND MAINTAIN A STORM TONIGHT. SO
FAR...PRECIP HAS STRUGGLED TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WARM/DRY H7 THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS AND THINK THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CAP TO WEAKEN BTWN
06-09Z ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST SO WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENT CHANCES
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
ALSO BASED ON LATEST DATA HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACROSS CWA TOMORROW
AND LOWERED TDS AS MUCH DRIER AIR NOTED BEHIND FRONT. STARTING TO
GET CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS TOMORROW...BUT
WILL WAIT TO GET FULL SUITE OF 00Z DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 445 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
DRYLINE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST...WITH TDS IN SEVERAL
AREAS FALLING 30+ DEGREES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA...A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A SHORT WHILE WEST OF A YUMA TO FIRSTVIEW LINE. ALSO
SEEING A LARGE PLUME OF DUST BEHIND DRYLINE STARTING TO NEAR THE
WESTERN CWA. WITH DRYLINE EXPECTED TO RETREAT SOME IN THE EARLY
EVENING AND RECENT RAINFALL...THINK THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO
SHORT LIVED AND ISOLATED TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT HAVE
UPDATED ALL FIRE PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.
VISIBILITIES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT LOW IN DUST PLUME AS CWA IS
PRETTY FAR FROM SOURCE REGION AND DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE A
LARGE SENSIBLE IMPACT ON AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
STARTING AROUND 01Z IN YUMA COUNTY AND CLEARING ALL COUNTIES BY 08Z.
12Z NAM SHOWS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OF 500 J/KG AND ELEVATED
CAPE TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z.
NAM ALSO SHOWS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 5-7 MB BEHIND COLD FRONT SO A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TRAIL BEHIND FRONT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE RUNNING 25-35 KNOTS...SO HAVE HOISTED A
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
FAIRLY DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM 6 TO 9 DEGREES C
WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY IN THE
MORNING TO AROUND 25 MPH BUT WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FACT THE MOST OF THE REGION RECEIVED 1.50
INCHES OF RAIN IN RECENT DAYS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP...DO NOT
FEEL THE NEED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST/SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO TO WICHITA COUNTY KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO DUE TO LACK OF MUCH UPPER AIR
ASCENT AND LOW BOUNDARY LEVEL DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...WILL PLACE
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S SUNDAY
MORNING...SO BRIEFLY CONSIDERED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE
ADVISORY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING/CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...TO
HELP PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO LOW. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED...HOWEVER.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
DIFFER IN THE LOCATION OF 500 MB FEATURES. RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY WHILE SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD
FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS
LOOK GOOD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS
MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE 500 MB LOW BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IN FACT...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500 MB LOW OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE GFS SWEEPS
PRECIPITATION EAST BY THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
GOING DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN SITUATION. THE NEXT LOW DEEPENS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY WHICH PLACES THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
INITIAL CONCERNS FOR AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT MFVR
STRATUS DECK WILL BACK UP OR LOWER SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN
POSITION OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS...DO NOT THINK THE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL COME BACK AS FAR AS GLD BUT DO EXPECT
AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF HIGHER END MVFR CONDITIONS AT MCK.
OTHERWISE...FOCUS WILL TURN TO STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEING
TO MOVE ACROSS AREA IMPACTING TAF SITES AROUND 5Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND BRIEFLY GUST TO AROUND 45
MPH...ESPECIALLY AT GLD WHERE HIGHER PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
CENTERED. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG
FRONT...BUT ELEVATED CAP DOES NOT REALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FRONT IS
SOUTH OF BOTH LOCATIONS SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...AFTER WINDS DROP OFF AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...EXPECT
STRONG WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
614 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
A SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES ON THIS MORNING`S 12 UTC OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED ALOFT AS THE
UPPER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SLOWLY GIVES WAY TO THE
ADVANCING TOUGH TOWARD THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS CLOUD COVER ENCOMPASSED ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AND THE 12 UTC
KDDC SOUNDING INDICATED A 5.5 KFT THICK CLOUD LAYER. THIS CLOUD
LAYER WAS ONLY BEGINNING TO SHOW SLIGHT SIGNS OF ERODING NEAR THE
COLORADO STATE LINE BY MIDDLE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
IMMEDIATELY FOR TONIGHT, THE STABLE LAYER WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE
HIRES-ARW AND LOCAL HRRR MODELS BOTH DEVELOP ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE, WHILE THE HIRES-NMM PRODUCES NOTHING ALONG THIS DRYLINE
FEATURE THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE`D EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF
CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT, AS THE NAM BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INDICATE LOWER VALUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM MONTANA INTO WYOMING WILL BE THE
BOUNDARY THAT IS DRIVEN THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER, THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE NAM MODEL DUE TO THE PRESENT SHALLOW THETA-E
AXIS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG, IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR A FEW STOUT UPDRAFTS AND BRIEF SMALL HAILCORES
THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ROUGHLY EAST
OF A SCOTT CITY TO MINNEOLA AND ASHLAND LINE. ONCE THE BOUNDARY
SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA DEEP DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO ALLOW FULL
SUN FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THE DAYTIME WILL
FAIRLY BREEZY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH AROUND 18Z
BEFORE AN ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES, EASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLACKENING
WINDS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TEMPER THE SURFACE HEATING,
RELEGATING GENERALLY TO THE LOW AND MID 60`S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
ON THE NEAR SIDE OF THE 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE NOW
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OVERRIDING CONDITIONS OF THE FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, I ADDED A FEW LOWER END POPS
TO THE MONDAY PERIOD, WHICH WERE NOT PREVIOUSLY IN THERE. WILL
BRING IN 20 POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN 1 TO 2 TIER OF COUNTIES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, AND THEN CONCENTRATE 20 POPS NORTH AND 30 POPS SOUTH
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVER RUNNING
WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SLIGHT STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE, INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE NEAR A JOHNSON
CITY TO DODGE CITY TO PRATT LINE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
WANDER NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO JUST WEST OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE 50 TO 55
PERCENT RANGE WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT REDUCE TO 40 PERCENT. BY FRIDAY,
THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY IN OUR WEST AND PARTLY CLOUDY IN OUR
EASTERN CWA. THROUGH THE MONDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD, SOME SPOTS MAY
RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 0.66 INCH OF RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN 2
TIER OF COUNTIES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SUNDAY MORNING IS THE MOST INTERESTING AND
CHALLENGING. USING THE LOW END VALUES OF THE MINXXX (GCK, DDC, ETC)
GUIDANCE TO POPULATE THE SAT NT/SUN MORN MIN T`S, AND THE RESULT WAS
AS COLD AS 32F AT SCOTT CITY, 34F NORTHWEST OF A DIGHTON TO JOHNSON
CITY LINE, AND AROUND 35F OR BELOW NORTHWEST OF A HAYS TO SUBLETTE
TO NEAR HUGOTON LINE. AT FIRST, I LEANED TOWARD A FROST ADVISORY
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST TIER OF COUNTIES, BUT DECIDED TO USE A MORE
GRADUAL APPROACH, AND INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO REFLECT THIS AS WELL.
MINS SHOULD INCREASE AS SOON AS MON MORNING SINCE THE WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE CLOSER, THE OVER RUNNING CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE AREA, AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WARM, MOIST AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN OUR NORTH TO NEAR 50F DEGREES IN
OUR SOUTH. MINS WILL BE SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
COOL A BIT INTO THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SE BY
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION, WITH SUNDAY STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S, WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT, AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. THE FRONT COULD BE NUDGING FARTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY,
WITH RESULTANT MAX TEMPS RESPONDING LIKEWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE MID 60S IN OUR NORTHEAST
SECTIONS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A LITTLE COOL AIR RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH, WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 70F DEGREES
IN OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE MID 60S IN OUR NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF KHYS AND KDDC THIS
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT KGCK LATER THIS EVENING AS SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE
LOW LEVEL STRATUS DISSIPATING WEST TO EAST ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN
KANSAS. HOWEVER, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER/REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z IN SOME LOCATIONS. PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. AS FOR WINDS, A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS
A RESULT, SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AT 20 TO 30KT WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 66 36 68 / 40 30 0 0
GCK 44 64 34 71 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 44 64 37 72 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 47 66 37 71 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 49 65 35 68 / 70 40 0 0
P28 54 68 39 69 / 60 50 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
425 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
A SLOW MOVING FAIRLY BAROTROPIC CLOSED LOW WAS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS REGION THIS MORNING, HEADING TOWARD THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW DOMINATED MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS WITH LOW STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE LOW STRATUS IMPEDED DIURNAL WARMING SO MUCH THAT TEMPERATURES
HAD ONLY REACHED THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE LOW LEVEL
THINNING STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAKS, AND THUS SOME AREAS
OF SUN MIGHT DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS, FROM
AROUND SYRACUSE TO HUGOTON. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING WILL HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED, SO IT APPEARS THE CURRENT RUC MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TREND. AS DIURNAL COOLING DEVELOPS AGAIN THIS
EVENING, IT WOULD FOLLOW THAT THE STRATUS LAYER WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
EXPAND ONCE AGAIN GOING INTO TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT, WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE TENDENCY, THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN BE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY MILD, OR ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF
THE OVERNIGHT WILL THEN BECOME, FOG AND EVEN PERHAPS THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS THE LEAD
APPROACHING UPPER JET NOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN APPROACHES OUT
REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CROSS BARRIER
FLOW, SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT, INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
ADDITIONAL CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAY ACT TO FURTHER INHIBIT MIXING. MODEL
10M WINDS ARE GENERALLY FORECASTING NEAR 20 KNOTS OF SURFACE
SUSTAINED WINDS IN ACROSS THE LARGER PART OF WESTERN KANSAS, AND THE
GFSMOS IS EVEN STRONGER. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IS MOST
LIKELY TO BE SEEN ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER MODEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT IT EVEN OVER A LARGE PART OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES BECOME INCREASED ALONG A
DRYLINE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES (CLOSELY TIED TO THE COLORADO
LINE) IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING AS WELL AS STRONG
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE TENDENCY ACT TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY OVER WESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ARKANSAS EXITS OUR AREA TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SAID, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, WILL HAVE
16-20 PERCENT POPS IN OUR EASTERN CWA FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL
LINGER IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA, DUE MAINLY TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM OKLAHOMA AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT, AND BY
WEDNESDAY FARTHER NORTH TO OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE GFS MODEL IS A
LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT FOR NOW I LIKE THE SLOWER, MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
ECMWF MODEL. BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD BE BISECTING OUR CWA AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF FORMING IN THE
WARM SURFACE AIR AND WITH THE FRONT SERVING AS FOCUS BOUNDARY.
LOADED THE CREXTENDFCST_INIT PROCEDURE`S QPF, AND THE AMOUNTS SEEMED
QUITE HIGH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DECREASED THE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY QPF QUITE A BIT.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANOTHER IMPORTANT PART OF THIS PACKAGE. SUNDAY
MORNING LOOKS COLD ENOUGH SOME PATCHY FROST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR, AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOWN THE GEOGRAPHIC
DOWNSLOPE PATTERN SHOULD BRING MID 30S FOR MIN T`S IN OUR NORTHWEST
AND WEST. IF THE MODELS GET ANY COLDER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MODEL RUNS, COULD SEE A FROST ADVISORY NEEDED SOMEWHERE IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE NEARER TERM, FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WEST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST,
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MONDAY MORNING, DIP TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S TUESDAY MORNING, THEN REBOUND TO THE 45 TO 50F DEGREE RANGE BY
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT LOWER TO THE
MID 60S MONDAY, BEFORE WARMING UP IN OUR SOUTHWEST WED AND THUR INTO
THE LOWER 70S AS WARM FRONT BULGES NORTHWARD, WITH LOWER 60S HIGH IN
THE EASTERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODELS TEND TO DECREASE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY, THE SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND METAR OBSERVATIONS OF CEILINGS INDICATE A PESSIMISTIC
OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WE WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST, WITH CEILINGS DETERIORATING AGAIN
DIURNALLY OVERNIGHT INTO THE LIFR CATEGORIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 67 50 65 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 48 71 47 63 / 10 20 10 10
EHA 49 77 44 63 / 10 20 20 10
LBL 49 73 49 65 / 10 20 10 10
HYS 46 63 51 64 / 10 10 20 20
P28 48 65 55 67 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1221 PM MDT THU APR 5 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE FOG HAS DIMINISHED
AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
COMPLETED AN UPDATE NOT TOO LONG AGO. MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS
TO REDEFINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AREA. OBSERVATIONS SHOWING DENSE
FOG HAVE STAYED ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THE
HRRR FOLLOWED BY THE RUC WAS DOING VERY WELL WITH THIS. SO
CANCELLED THE EASTERN MOST ROW OF COUNTIES THAT WERE IN THE
ADVISORY. USED THE COMBINATION OF REALITY COMBINED WITH THE
MESOSCALE MODELS TO ADJUST THE HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT AND ITS AFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES...CHANCES OF
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT
A LOT OF PRECIPITATION HAS FINALLY MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. NEXT
UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER IS DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE/UPPER AIR WOULD INDICATE A LOT OF COLD AIR
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AT JET LEVEL THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW WESTERN TROUGH. THROUGH 06Z SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THAT ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE
ECMWF AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE NAM AND
ECMWF WERE DOING WELL WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND FIELD. THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
AFFECT AND HOW LONG THE STRATUS AND FOG LAST. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN THE ADVISORY OR
FOG AREA AS NEEDED. AT THIS TIME THE DENSE FOG HAS STAYED CONFINED
TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO
HINT THIS WILL BE THE CASE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WARMING UP VERY MUCH
DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS LASTING A LONG TIME PLUS THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. LOWERED THE MAXES SOME BUT
STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
INTERESTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING IN AT THE VERY LEAST A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. POSSIBLE
THAT THE AREA OF FOG/DENSE FOG COULD BE EVEN LARGER THAN THIS
MORNINGS. 06Z NAM EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DOING THIS THAN THE EARLIER
GUIDANCE. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS -SHRA/ELEVATED -TSRA FOR LATER TONIGHT.
MAIN UPPER JET REMAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST BY 12Z AS SHOWN YESTERDAY.
MODELS HINTING AT A WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER AFFECTING
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z. MODELS TENDED TO BE
TOO FAR EAST INITIALLY WITH THE MAIN AXIS. THINKING THAT THE MODELS
MAY BE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELIEVE
THE JET LIFT WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
THERE IS WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LAYERS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A VERY DEEP AND DRY LAYER IN THE MID
LEVELS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOME CINH IN PLACE AND ALSO NO
ELEVATED CAPE. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT WILL
HAVE A SHALLOW SATURATED LOW LAYER WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE IT. SO
EVEN IF IT WERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH DOUBT THAT PARCELS COULD BECOME
SATURATED. SREF GIVES LITTLE TO NO PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE OR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. CONSIDERING WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THINKING THEY ARE GENERATING DRIZZLE. AFTER SAYING ALL
THAT...WILL PUT IN AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASING MOISTURE...WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WARMED MINS UP AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT I STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS/HPC GENERATE/PUT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. AGAIN THE SAME
REASON/ARGUMENT FOR THE WEATHER/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPLIES TO
THE MORNING HOURS HERE. WILL CONTINUE THE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF THE MAIN JET AND ALL IMPORTANT
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT. MODEL CLUSTERING WOULD TEND TO FAVOR TO START
THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT NEAR THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA AT 18Z AND THEN PROGRESS IT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE MAIN JET LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANYONE AND A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. THIS
CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. DRY LINE IS FURTHER WEST
THAN SHOWN YESTERDAY WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY MOIST. HOWEVER THERE LOOKS TO BE A
NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH NO CAP. WILL
HAVE THE JET AND DRY LINE CLOSE BY ALONG WITH INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SO ADJUSTED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER/INSTABILITY AXIS. LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHIFT EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. ALSO FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF AFTER
06Z. SO TRANSITIONED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
AGAIN THE MAIN PLAYER IN HOW WARM IT GETS WILL BE HOW LONG STRATUS
AND FOG LAST. FROM YESTERDAY...DRYLINE AND GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER ARE FURTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS
CONSEQUENTLY HAVE LOWERED MAXES FROM YESTERDAY. SO I CONTINUED TO
PULL WARMER TEMPERATURES FURTHER TO THE WEST. FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO WINDY
CATEGORY FOR A BRIEF TIME PERIOD.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE BEFORE SUNRISE.
LOWER DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE ADVECTED IN AS WELL. IT IS STILL TOO FAR
OUT TO PUT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT EVEN IF I WANTED TO. BUT
DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BELIEVE THE FUEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE RATHER HIGH AFTER THE PREVIOUS RAIN.
WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT SO MINS WILL MUCH COLDER THAN THEY
HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET TO NEAR
FREEZING.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER NW KS AND SW
NEBRASKA. WEST OF STATIONARY FRONT WILL SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULT WILL BE GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WARMEST OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND COOLER EAST. NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT NORMAL DIURNAL WARMING/COOLING
TRENDS. FOR NOW FORECAST SHOWS SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN THE
60S...NEAR 70 IN EASTERN COLORADO.
H5 RIDGE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP STABLE AIR MASS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IM NOT VERY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...SO
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED OUT WED. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CANT
BE RULED OUT WED AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE ELEVATED
CAPE IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED ON BY GFS NEAR SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
FROM EXPERIENCE THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FOG PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE GFS SOLUTION CANT BE DISCOUNTED.
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE THAT I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE WED THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
BY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF
SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND HOW IT
EVOLVES. 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER...STRONGER...AND FURTHER SOUTH.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH. CONSIDERING THE
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEMED LIKE A GOOD FIRST
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD...LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD MAINLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS STAYING
MVFR WITH POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT VFR. AFTER SUNSET LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z. BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
LIFR MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS SOUTH WINDS ALSO INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO IFR BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z WITH
SOUTH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
905 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE FOG HAS DIMINISHED
AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
COMPLETED AN UPDATE NOT TOO LONG AGO. MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS
TO REDEFINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AREA. OBSERVATIONS SHOWING DENSE
FOG HAVE STAYED ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THE
HRRR FOLLOWED BY THE RUC WAS DOING VERY WELL WITH THIS. SO
CANCELLED THE EASTERN MOST ROW OF COUNTIES THAT WERE IN THE
ADVISORY. USED THE COMBINATION OF REALITY COMBINED WITH THE
MESOSCALE MODELS TO ADJUST THE HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT AND ITS AFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES...CHANCES OF
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT
A LOT OF PRECIPITATION HAS FINALLY MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. NEXT
UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER IS DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE/UPPER AIR WOULD INDICATE A LOT OF COLD AIR
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AT JET LEVEL THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW WESTERN TROUGH. THROUGH 06Z SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THAT ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE
ECMWF AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE NAM AND
ECMWF WERE DOING WELL WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND FIELD. THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
AFFECT AND HOW LONG THE STRATUS AND FOG LAST. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN THE ADVISORY OR
FOG AREA AS NEEDED. AT THIS TIME THE DENSE FOG HAS STAYED CONFINED
TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO
HINT THIS WILL BE THE CASE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WARMING UP VERY MUCH
DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS LASTING A LONG TIME PLUS THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. LOWERED THE MAXES SOME BUT
STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
INTERESTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING IN AT THE VERY LEAST A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. POSSIBLE
THAT THE AREA OF FOG/DENSE FOG COULD BE EVEN LARGER THAN THIS
MORNINGS. 06Z NAM EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DOING THIS THAN THE EARLIER
GUIDANCE. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS -SHRA/ELEVATED -TSRA FOR LATER TONIGHT.
MAIN UPPER JET REMAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST BY 12Z AS SHOWN YESTERDAY.
MODELS HINTING AT A WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER AFFECTING
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z. MODELS TENDED TO BE
TOO FAR EAST INITIALLY WITH THE MAIN AXIS. THINKING THAT THE MODELS
MAY BE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELIEVE
THE JET LIFT WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
THERE IS WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LAYERS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A VERY DEEP AND DRY LAYER IN THE MID
LEVELS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOME CINH IN PLACE AND ALSO NO
ELEVATED CAPE. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT WILL
HAVE A SHALLOW SATURATED LOW LAYER WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE IT. SO
EVEN IF IT WERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH DOUBT THAT PARCELS COULD BECOME
SATURATED. SREF GIVES LITTLE TO NO PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE OR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. CONSIDERING WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THINKING THEY ARE GENERATING DRIZZLE. AFTER SAYING ALL
THAT...WILL PUT IN AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASING MOISTURE...WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WARMED MINS UP AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT I STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS/HPC GENERATE/PUT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. AGAIN THE SAME
REASON/ARGUMENT FOR THE WEATHER/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPLIES TO
THE MORNING HOURS HERE. WILL CONTINUE THE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF THE MAIN JET AND ALL IMPORTANT
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT. MODEL CLUSTERING WOULD TEND TO FAVOR TO START
THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT NEAR THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA AT 18Z AND THEN PROGRESS IT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE MAIN JET LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANYONE AND A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. THIS
CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. DRY LINE IS FURTHER WEST
THAN SHOWN YESTERDAY WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY MOIST. HOWEVER THERE LOOKS TO BE A
NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH NO CAP. WILL
HAVE THE JET AND DRY LINE CLOSE BY ALONG WITH INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SO ADJUSTED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER/INSTABILITY AXIS. LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHIFT EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. ALSO FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF AFTER
06Z. SO TRANSITIONED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
AGAIN THE MAIN PLAYER IN HOW WARM IT GETS WILL BE HOW LONG STRATUS
AND FOG LAST. FROM YESTERDAY...DRYLINE AND GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER ARE FURTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS
CONSEQUENTLY HAVE LOWERED MAXES FROM YESTERDAY. SO I CONTINUED TO
PULL WARMER TEMPERATURES FURTHER TO THE WEST. FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO WINDY
CATEGORY FOR A BRIEF TIME PERIOD.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE BEFORE SUNRISE.
LOWER DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE ADVECTED IN AS WELL. IT IS STILL TOO FAR
OUT TO PUT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT EVEN IF I WANTED TO. BUT
DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BELIEVE THE FUEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE RATHER HIGH AFTER THE PREVIOUS RAIN.
WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT SO MINS WILL MUCH COLDER THAN THEY
HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET TO NEAR
FREEZING.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER NW KS AND SW
NEBRASKA. WEST OF STATIONARY FRONT WILL SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULT WILL BE GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WARMEST OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND COOLER EAST. NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT NORMAL DIURNAL WARMING/COOLING
TRENDS. FOR NOW FORECAST SHOWS SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN THE
60S...NEAR 70 IN EASTERN COLORADO.
H5 RIDGE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP STABLE AIR MASS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IM NOT VERY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...SO
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED OUT WED. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CANT
BE RULED OUT WED AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE ELEVATED
CAPE IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED ON BY GFS NEAR SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
FROM EXPERIENCE THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FOG PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE GFS SOLUTION CANT BE DISCOUNTED.
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE THAT I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE WED THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
BY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF
SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND HOW IT
EVOLVES. 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER...STRONGER...AND FURTHER SOUTH.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH. CONSIDERING THE
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEMED LIKE A GOOD FIRST
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
DIFFICULT SET OF TAFS. HAVE BEEN WAITING ON WHAT TO DO WITH AREAS
OF FOG/PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE
FOG HAD STAYED TO THE WEST OF KGLD. THE RUC AND ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR KEEP THE DENSE FOG EAST OF KGLD AND FOLLOWED THEM FOR THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. SO FOR BOTH TAF SITES HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS START OUT MVFR BUT
EXPECT CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES TO DROP TO LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 06Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
555 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
COMPLETED AN UPDATE NOT TOO LONG AGO. MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS
TO REDEFINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AREA. OBSERVATIONS SHOWING DENSE
FOG HAVE STAYED ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THE
HRRR FOLLOWED BY THE RUC WAS DOING VERY WELL WITH THIS. SO
CANCELLED THE EASTERN MOST ROW OF COUNTIES THAT WERE IN THE
ADVISORY. USED THE COMBINATION OF REALITY COMBINED WITH THE
MESOSCALE MODELS TO ADJUST THE HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT AND ITS AFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES...CHANCES OF
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT
A LOT OF PRECIPITATION HAS FINALLY MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. NEXT
UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER IS DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE/UPPER AIR WOULD INDICATE A LOT OF COLD AIR
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AT JET LEVEL THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW WESTERN TROUGH. THROUGH 06Z SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THAT ALL THE MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE
ECMWF AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE NAM AND
ECMWF WERE DOING WELL WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND FIELD. THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
AFFECT AND HOW LONG THE STRATUS AND FOG LAST. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN THE ADVISORY OR
FOG AREA AS NEEDED. AT THIS TIME THE DENSE FOG HAS STAYED CONFINED
TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO
HINT THIS WILL BE THE CASE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WARMING UP VERY MUCH
DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS LASTING A LONG TIME PLUS THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. LOWERED THE MAXES SOME BUT
STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
INTERESTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING IN AT THE VERY LEAST A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. POSSIBLE
THAT THE AREA OF FOG/DENSE FOG COULD BE EVEN LARGER THAN THIS
MORNINGS. 06Z NAM EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DOING THIS THAN THE EARLIER
GUIDANCE. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS -SHRA/ELEVATED -TSRA FOR LATER TONIGHT.
MAIN UPPER JET REMAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST BY 12Z AS SHOWN YESTERDAY.
MODELS HINTING AT A WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER AFFECTING
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z. MODELS TENDED TO BE
TOO FAR EAST INITIALLY WITH THE MAIN AXIS. THINKING THAT THE MODELS
MAY BE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELIEVE
THE JET LIFT WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
THERE IS WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LAYERS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A VERY DEEP AND DRY LAYER IN THE MID
LEVELS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOME CINH IN PLACE AND ALSO NO
ELEVATED CAPE. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT WILL
HAVE A SHALLOW SATURATED LOW LAYER WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE IT. SO
EVEN IF IT WERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH DOUBT THAT PARCELS COULD BECOME
SATURATED. SREF GIVES LITTLE TO NO PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE OR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. CONSIDERING WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THINKING THEY ARE GENERATING DRIZZLE. AFTER SAYING ALL
THAT...WILL PUT IN AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASING MOISTURE...WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WARMED MINS UP AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT I STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS/HPC GENERATE/PUT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. AGAIN THE SAME
REASON/ARGUMENT FOR THE WEATHER/CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPLIES TO
THE MORNING HOURS HERE. WILL CONTINUE THE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF THE MAIN JET AND ALL IMPORTANT
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT. MODEL CLUSTERING WOULD TEND TO FAVOR TO START
THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT NEAR THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA AT 18Z AND THEN PROGRESS IT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE MAIN JET LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANYONE AND A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. THIS
CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. DRY LINE IS FURTHER WEST
THAN SHOWN YESTERDAY WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY MOIST. HOWEVER THERE LOOKS TO BE A
NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH NO CAP. WILL
HAVE THE JET AND DRY LINE CLOSE BY ALONG WITH INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SO ADJUSTED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER/INSTABILITY AXIS. LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHIFT EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. ALSO FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF AFTER
06Z. SO TRANSITIONED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
AGAIN THE MAIN PLAYER IN HOW WARM IT GETS WILL BE HOW LONG STRATUS
AND FOG LAST. FROM YESTERDAY...DRYLINE AND GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER ARE FURTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS
CONSEQUENTLY HAVE LOWERED MAXES FROM YESTERDAY. SO I CONTINUED TO
PULL WARMER TEMPERATURES FURTHER TO THE WEST. FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO WINDY
CATEGORY FOR A BRIEF TIME PERIOD.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE BEFORE SUNRISE.
LOWER DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE ADVECTED IN AS WELL. IT IS STILL TOO FAR
OUT TO PUT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT EVEN IF I WANTED TO. BUT
DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BELIEVE THE FUEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE RATHER HIGH AFTER THE PREVIOUS RAIN.
WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT SO MINS WILL MUCH COLDER THAN THEY
HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET TO NEAR
FREEZING.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER NW KS AND SW
NEBRASKA. WEST OF STATIONARY FRONT WILL SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULT WILL BE GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WARMEST OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND COOLER EAST. NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT NORMAL DIURNAL WARMING/COOLING
TRENDS. FOR NOW FORECAST SHOWS SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN THE
60S...NEAR 70 IN EASTERN COLORADO.
H5 RIDGE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP STABLE AIR MASS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IM NOT VERY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...SO
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED OUT WED. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CANT
BE RULED OUT WED AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE ELEVATED
CAPE IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED ON BY GFS NEAR SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
FROM EXPERIENCE THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FOG PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE GFS SOLUTION CANT BE DISCOUNTED.
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE THAT I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE WED THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
BY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF
SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND HOW IT
EVOLVES. 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER...STRONGER...AND FURTHER SOUTH.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH. CONSIDERING THE
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEMED LIKE A GOOD FIRST
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
DIFFICULT SET OF TAFS. HAVE BEEN WAITING ON WHAT TO DO WITH AREAS
OF FOG/PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE
FOG HAD STAYED TO THE WEST OF KGLD. THE RUC AND ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR KEEP THE DENSE FOG EAST OF KGLD AND FOLLOWED THEM FOR THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. SO FOR BOTH TAF SITES HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS START OUT MVFR BUT
EXPECT CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES TO DROP TO LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 06Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-013-027-041.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1248 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
VEER TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. A WEAK LLJ WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL MN TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS AT
MOST TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012/
AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 WELL IN OUR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES...TO 45 TO 50 CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TWENTIES FOR MOST AREAS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES
WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR COOLER DUE TO CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS. THE SOUTH SHORE
WILL REACH THE MID FIFTIES TO AROUND SIXTY AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD OVER NWRN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND. COOL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPS.
AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THE RUC13 925MB WINDS AND NAM12 1000MB-950MB WINDS INDICATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SO INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT 1K AGL
THROUGH 12Z. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM DLH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE
PAST TWO HOURS WITH 30 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 28 56 34 53 / 0 0 10 50
INL 24 60 36 53 / 0 0 10 50
BRD 31 62 40 57 / 0 0 20 40
HYR 22 62 33 59 / 0 0 10 50
ASX 25 58 34 58 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
629 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 WELL IN OUR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES...TO 45 TO 50 CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TWENTIES FOR MOST AREAS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES
WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR COOLER DUE TO CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS. THE SOUTH SHORE
WILL REACH THE MID FIFTIES TO AROUND SIXTY AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD OVER NWRN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND. COOL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPS.
AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THE RUC13 925MB WINDS AND NAM12 1000MB-950MB WINDS INDICATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SO INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT 1K AGL
THROUGH 12Z. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM DLH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE
PAST TWO HOURS WITH 30 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 28 56 34 / 0 0 0 10
INL 56 24 60 36 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 59 31 62 40 / 0 0 0 20
HYR 58 22 62 33 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 48 25 58 34 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
AVIATION...BERDES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
317 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 WELL IN OUR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES...TO 45 TO 50 CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TWENTIES FOR MOST AREAS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES
WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR COOLER DUE TO CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS. THE SOUTH SHORE
WILL REACH THE MID FIFTIES TO AROUND SIXTY AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD OVER NWRN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND. COOL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THE RUC13 925MB WINDS AND NAM12 1000MB-950MB WINDS INDICATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SO INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT 1K AGL
THROUGH 12Z. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM DLH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE
PAST TWO HOURS WITH 30 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 28 56 34 / 0 0 0 10
INL 56 24 60 36 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 59 31 62 40 / 0 0 0 20
HYR 58 22 62 33 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 48 25 58 34 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM....BERDES
AVIATION...KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1226 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THE RUC13 925MB WINDS AND NAM12 1000MB-950MB WINDS INDICATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SO INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT 1K AGL
THROUGH 12Z. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM DLH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE
PAST TWO HOURS WITH 30 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012/
UPDATE...
INCREASED WINDS OVER AND ADJACENT TO LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. KDYT
IS REPORTING A NE WIND SUSTAINED AT 16 KT. THE 18Z NAM/DLHWRF BOTH
HAVE PICKED UP ON THE INCREASED NE FLOW OVER LK SUP TONIGHT AND
SUGGEST IT PERSISTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. IN
RESPONSES TO THE ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT...HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012/
AVIATION.../0Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY 15Z OVER THE WESTERN
AERODROMES. THE TERMINALS AT DLH AND HYR WILL HAVE EASTERLY WINDS
BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
SHARP RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN. SO FAR
THE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE WINDS ARE WEAK SINCE THE HIGH HAS NOT HAD
A CHANCE TO BUILD UP STRONGLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HUDSON BAY IS ARCTIC...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED
BUT MOISTURE HAS NOT BEEN ADDED. SO...THE PERIOD WILL HAVE CLEAR
SKIES AND LARGE DAY TO NIGHT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED AND DEEPER...AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO
FALL TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE ONSHORE WINDS BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CHILL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN DRIER
AIR WILL RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED
TO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
THE NORTHLAND SHOULD END THE WORK WEEK WITH A RELATIVELY WARM AND
SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...AND IT COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDER ON
SATURDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 28 54 34 54 / 0 0 10 50
INL 24 60 36 53 / 0 0 10 50
BRD 30 60 40 57 / 0 0 20 50
HYR 22 59 32 60 / 0 0 10 50
ASX 26 56 34 59 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
AVIATION...KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
926 AM MDT THU APR 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THAN THE 12Z
NAM. 12Z HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWING A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS BUT SEEMS
TO BE TOO DRY WITH ECHOES OVER THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS FOR TODAY...ADDING MENTION OF SNOW LIKELY FOR SW
PHILLIPS COUNTY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN
KLWT AND KHVR THIS MORNING. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. JAMBA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR BLIZZARD IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NEED A WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S AND CANADA WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY
AND START IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL SPLIT TODAY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH BECOMING A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WHILE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO MONATANA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A COMBINATION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL START MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE NORTH ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE NEAR THE
MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WEST OF GLASGOW AND JORDAN WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AREA EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AND WITH SNOW
FALLING...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP. UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST COULD BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FROM VALLEY AND
GARFIELD COUNTIES WEST.
THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH BECOME A CLOSED LOW THAT BECOME
STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA. A TROWAL
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHEAST MONTANA WHICH
WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP WHICH WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO ALL SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP BLIZZARD
TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
THE STACKED LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
THE SNOW DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY. IT COULD
BE SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW COMPLETELY ENDS IN THE
NORTHEAST. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO RISE HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. FORRESTER
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP AS OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON... A COLD AIR TROUGH WILL
EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BARRELING EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. A RIDGE LIES TO THE WEST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH
WILL PLACE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. FURTHER WEST... A
LONG WAVE COUPLET OF A TROUGH AND RIDGE EXIST OVER THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO A RIDGE PATTERN. THE MORE THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
OBSERVED... THE DRYER IT BECOMES IN TH LONG RANGE. CURRENTLY
STARTING TO BITE ON THE IDEA THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERIODS AS MODELS ARE NOT GIVING
ANY HINT OF PRECIP FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS... DESPITE THE NORMAL
CLIMO HINTING TOWARDS ODD PRECIP IN THESE KINDS OF FLOWS.
TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD... OVERALL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AND
PRECIP STARTS TO SHOW IN MODEL RUNS AS THE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC
IMPACTS THE REGION. TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
AROUND THURSDAY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST AND SHOULD LOWER
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. A BRIEF SPIKE IN POPS CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY.... ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS COULD APPEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT ANTICIPATE WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTH
AND LOSE GUSTINESS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...
NORTHERN VALLEY.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SEVERAL DRY
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
THE WESTERN END OF OAK ISLAND ACROSS NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY TO NEAR
MARION AND FLORENCE. EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE CAPE IS NOW 2500 J/KG AND EVEN THE
100-MB MIXED LAYER CAPE IS APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. ONCE THE
CONVECTIVE CAP GOES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WE EXPECT TO SEE
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. THE MOST-RECENT
SPC OUTLOOK MAINTAINS PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL AWAY FROM THE NC BORDER REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA...IN-LINE WITH
OUT THINKING AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 10 AM FOLLOWS...
A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE WILMINGTON AREA
AT THE CURRENT TIME...ACCOMPANIED BY A BANK OF LOW CLOUDS AND ABOUT
A 120-DEGREE CLOCKWISE WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ESTABLISHED FOR THE DAY NORTH OF
THIS FRONT WHERE WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE
60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE FRONT
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE LATEST SEVERAL
(09Z,10Z,11Z) RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL AND PLACE THE FRONT NEAR
SOUTHPORT...WHITEVILLE...DILLON AND BENNETTSVILLE JUST BEFORE
NOON...AND INTO THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA BY 2 PM.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS WARMING AND DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...AND WE ANTICIPATE
SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO GROW TO AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ONLY THE
BAREST HINT OF A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 5000 FT STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AT THAT TIME...ROUGHLY DARLINGTON TO FLORENCE...MARION AND
CONWAY TO MYRTLE BEACH. THE STRONGEST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR SHOULD STILL EXIST FOR MODEST
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
COME TO AN END IN THE MORNING HOURS LEAVING A SMALL AREA OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM. CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH 1800 UTC WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER
QPF FROM DILLON AND MARION COUNTIES EAST TO NEW HANOVER AND PENDER
COUNTIES CITING THE STRONGER FORCING.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TEMPERATURES AS MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH 1800 UTC SATURDAY UNDER CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. LATEST
MET NUMBERS APPEAR TOO COLD WITH 33 AND 36 IN LUMBERTON/WILMINGTON
FOR SATURDAY MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS AND EVEN
THERE I ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MIXED.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH WITH AIR
MASS MODIFICATION AND A FULL DAY OF APRIL SUNSHINE TO FURTHER WARM
SOIL TEMPERATURES...FROST SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF ATTENTION BEING THE EAST COAST TROUGH. MID
LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES OVER QUEBEC MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DIVING SOUTH
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP IS NOT MUCH OF A
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA WITH THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY
RINGING OUT WHAT LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE THERE IS. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS MOST INTERESTING WITH LATEST MEX NUMBERS SHOWING
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST ENSEMBLE NUMBERS HAVE TRENDED
WARMER HOWEVER WITH THE OPERATIONAL NUMBERS THE COOLEST.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CURRENTLY MVFR CIGS AT KILM/KLBT...WHILE VFR PREVAILS AT
KFLO/KCRE/KMYR. ANTICIPATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ASSOCIATED
WITH EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR GIVEN ANTICIPATED STEADY
STATE OF RAINFALL AND LOWERED CIGS.
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED NEARLY HORIZONTALLY ACROSS THE CAROLINA
BORDER GIVE OR TAKE. CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY
SEVERE AT KFLO/KCRE/KMYR WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. FOR NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS AT THESE SITES GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF ONSET OF ACTIVITY. FOR KILM/KLBT...HAVE INTRODUCED
VCSH...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A ROUGE THUNDERSTORM AS WELL IN NC. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 12 KTS...AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADY AND LAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD. CIGS WILL LIKELY DIP TO NEAR 1500
FT...CREATING MVFR RESTRICTIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE IFR
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL AND/OR LULLS IN ACTIVITY WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP TEMPORARILY. NORTH WINDS EARLY ON FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...WITH WINDS IN THE MORNING AOB
10KTS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...FRONT HAS ADVANCED SOUTH THROUGH CAPE FEAR
AND IS ABOUT 10-15 MILES SOUTH OF THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES. THIS
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER PROJECTIONS. BASED ON A STRONGER-
THAN-EXPECTED SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS WE HAVE STARTED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET NOW RATHER THAN WAITING
UNTIL TONIGHT AS ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. WIND GUSTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH HAVE ALREADY REACHED 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DECREASE BY ABOUT 5 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 10 AM FOLLOWS..
A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP ACROSS ALL OF
OUR MARINE AREA BY THIS EVENING. AT 10 AM THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND EXTENDED OUT HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
BEACHES AROUND NOON...AND THE MYRTLE BEACH AROUND BETWEEN 1 AND 2
PM. A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS TO AS STRONG AS 20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
WHEN THE FRONT PASSES OVERHEAD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY...MAINLY AFTER 2 PM.
SPECTRAL WAVE DATA FROM THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY SHOWS SEAS ARE
ALMOST EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN A LONG 15-SECOND EASTERLY SWELL AND
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES FROM THE WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING
NORTHEAST WIND CHOP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO OUR
CURRENT 2-3 FT SEAS TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT BY SUNSET NORTH
OF CAPE FEAR. CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...CONTINUED TO USE THE GFS WINDS WHICH ARE
STRONGER WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM FOR THE PERIOD. THIS WARRANTS AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BEGINNING EASTERNMOST WATERS
THEN BLOSSOMING WESTWARD AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS FROM 1200 FRIDAY TO 0000 UTC
SATURDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS EITHER SIDE OF 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH
SEAS WILL WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ALL WATERS SHOULD BE FREE
OF ANY HEADLINES LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...BENIGN WINDS SUNDAY...TEN KNOTS OR LESS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. SEAS OF 2-3 FEET INITIALLY WILL
INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FEET MONDAY WITH THE FOUR FOOTERS WELL
OFFSHORE WITH THE FETCH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FULL MOON IS UPON US AND WITH THE DEVELOPING AND INCREASING NE
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...THERE IS A RISK FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
ALONG THE CAPE FEAR THIS EVE AND AGAIN FRI EVE AS THE GAGE READING
EXCEEDS 5.5 FT AT HIGH TIDE. ALONG THE COAST...MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE ON FRI. THE HIGHEST OF THE TWO
PREDICTED HIGH TIDES IS DURING THE EVE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN FRI
MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. HIGH TIDES ALONG THE COAST...7P TONIGHT AND ON FRI...
730A AND 8P. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON OCCUR 2
TO 3 HOURS AFTER HIGH TIDE AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NEW HANOVER COUNTY 8-11 PM TONIGHT.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
740 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN
STALL OVER SC THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
WHILE THE MOST RECENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
CWA HAS MOVED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...THE PRESENCE OF DISTURBED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED RADAR ECHOES FROM NC TO KY
WARRANTS KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NC/VA BORDER FROM
THE NORTH...AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
THE FROPA...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING TO NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER BY
AROUND 12Z. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FOCUSED
NEAR THE WEAK 850MB FRONT THAT WILL HOLD BACK OVER VA THIS
MORNING...SO AFTER 12Z WE WILL HAVE A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BETWEEN THE 850MB FRONT TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO SC...THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT SHOULD SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC BORDER.
MOST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WARM SECTOR...BUT THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AREA NORTH
OF THE BORDER WILL BE MUCH TO STABLE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
NC AND HELP LOCK IN STRATUS THIS MORNING..SO WE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ALL DAY WITH A STEADY 12KT NORTHEAST WIND. THUS TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND RISE VERY
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN
COOLED BY RAIN AND FORECAST TEMPS ARE ALREADY TOO WARM. A 10 TO 15
DEGREE WARM UP DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN TODAY...SO WE WILL NUDGE HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER OK WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION TODAY...THEN DIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS AL/GA TONIGHT AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. 60-80M HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE SC/GA BORDER LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE GFS IS A NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH ITS
PRESSURE FALLS AND EVENTUALLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. WE WILL
FAVOR THE ECMWF AND NAM FOR THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONT AND SURFACE LOW...BUT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD HELP DRAW
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE VICINITY OF THE 925-850MB FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. THUS WHILE RAIN MAY
INITIALLY BE SLOW TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AFTER
21-00Z THIS EVENING...THE RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL NC. A MODEL CONSENSUS OF
QPF...WITH GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS...GIVES 0.25-0.5"
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 64. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AREA NEAR THE VA
BORDER COULD SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN IF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER
SOUTH WHERE MOST MODELS SHOW IT TRACKING. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S...WITH A CHILLY 10-15KT NORTHEAST WIND ON THE NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY BACK AROUND TO NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...HELPING
TO FILTER DIRER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD ALL OF THE CWA CLEARING BY FRIDAY EVENING. BECAUSE
CLOUDS...AND PRECIP EARLY...WILL LINGER LONGEST ON THE
SOUTHEAST...TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA...IF NOT
WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC AND
POTENTIAL FOR LOWS TO REACH THE UPPER 30S. A LIGHT WIND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL RADIATIONAL COLLING POTENTIAL...BUT A
LIGHT FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE IN COOLER SHELTERED AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. WORTH NOTING THE CANADIAN
ORIGIN OF THIS HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...HOWEVER COLDEST AIR WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR EAST AS THE
TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. NONETHELESS...LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH ONGOING TEMP FORECAST WHICH SUGGESTS LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S...COLDEST NORTH OF HWY 64. CAN`T
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE COLDER/SHELTERED SPOTS...BUT GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE
PRES GRADIENT AND SOME SFC WIND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNRISE...SO THAT
COULD HELP TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD COLDER TEMPS AND FROST. THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH A
CHILLY AND DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN.
RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO EXPECT LESS WIND SUNDAY MORNING
COMPARED TO SATURDAY...THUS TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE TO VALUES NEEDED FOR
PATCHY FROST. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE WORTH CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES
WITH LATER FORECASTS.
ON SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
TN VALLEY IN THE MORNING TO OUR WESTERN PIEDMONT BY EVENING. WITH A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH (THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AND WNW MIDLEVEL FLOW GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI)...I`M A
LITTLE LEARY OF THE PRECIP THAT THE GFS IS GENERATING OVER OUR AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 10 PERCENT FOR THIS TIME...BUT IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND WETTER...MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS TIME WITH FUTURE
FORECAST CYCLES.
THEREAFTER...THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND TREND COOLER
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS DEEPEN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. WHAT THIS
MEANS FOR US IS A CONTINUATION OF THE COOL TREND FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...WITH MORNING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE EXACT TIMING
AND DETAILS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...BUT
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE ONE POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASED POPS ALONG/AHEAD
OF IT...AND THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. SURGES OF
COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW EACH OF THESE WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...WITH
WINDS TURNING TO NORTHEASTERLY AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
12KT BY MID MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS PUSHING ACROSS THE TRIAD
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...CAUSING BRIEF MVFR VSBYS..
HOWEVER...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER THEY
SHOULD IMPACT KRDU/KRWI BY 14-15Z. MEANWHILE STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING
THE DAY TODAY WILL BE AT KFAY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE NEAR THE STALLING COLD FRONT. ALL OTHER SITES ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
TONIGHT..RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY AFTER
00Z....EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AFTER
06Z....AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS GA AND SC. THERE IS
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-4K FT
RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS....THOUGH SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. IF THE RAIN IS HEAVIER THAN MODELS
PROJECT...THEN LOWER CEILINGS...POSSIBLY IFR...COULD OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS FAR NORTH AS KGSO/KINT/KRWI.
AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING.
DRIER AIR AD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...NMP
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN
STALL OVER SC THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
WHILE THE MOST RECENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
CWA HAS MOVED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...THE PRESENCE OF DISTURBED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED RADAR ECHOES FROM NC TO KY
WARRANTS KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NC/VA BORDER FROM
THE NORTH...AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
THE FROPA...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING TO NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER BY
AROUND 12Z. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FOCUSED
NEAR THE WEAK 850MB FRONT THAT WILL HOLD BACK OVER VA THIS
MORNING...SO AFTER 12Z WE WILL HAVE A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BETWEEN THE 850MB FRONT TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO SC...THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT SHOULD SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC BORDER.
MOST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WARM SECTOR...BUT THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AREA NORTH
OF THE BORDER WILL BE MUCH TO STABLE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
NC AND HELP LOCK IN STRATUS THIS MORNING..SO WE EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ALL DAY WITH A STEADY 12KT NORTHEAST WIND. THUS TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND RISE VERY
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN
COOLED BY RAIN AND FORECAST TEMPS ARE ALREADY TOO WARM. A 10 TO 15
DEGREE WARM UP DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN TODAY...SO WE WILL NUDGE HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER OK WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION TODAY...THEN DIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS AL/GA TONIGHT AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. 60-80M HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE SC/GA BORDER LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE GFS IS A NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH ITS
PRESSURE FALLS AND EVENTUALLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. WE WILL
FAVOR THE ECMWF AND NAM FOR THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONT AND SURFACE LOW...BUT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD HELP DRAW
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE VICINITY OF THE 925-850MB FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. THUS WHILE RAIN MAY
INITIALLY BE SLOW TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AFTER
21-00Z THIS EVENING...THE RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL NC. A MODEL CONSENSUS OF
QPF...WITH GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS...GIVES 0.25-0.5"
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 64. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AREA NEAR THE VA
BORDER COULD SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN IF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER
SOUTH WHERE MOST MODELS SHOW IT TRACKING. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S...WITH A CHILLY 10-15KT NORTHEAST WIND ON THE NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY BACK AROUND TO NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...HELPING
TO FILTER DIRER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD ALL OF THE CWA CLEARING BY FRIDAY EVENING. BECAUSE
CLOUDS...AND PRECIP EARLY...WILL LINGER LONGEST ON THE
SOUTHEAST...TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA...IF NOT
WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC AND
POTENTIAL FOR LOWS TO REACH THE UPPER 30S. A LIGHT WIND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL RADIATIONAL COLLING POTENTIAL...BUT A
LIGHT FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE IN COOLER SHELTERED AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. WORTH NOTING THE CANADIAN
ORIGIN OF THIS HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...HOWEVER COLDEST AIR WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR EAST AS THE
TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. NONETHELESS...LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH ONGOING TEMP FORECAST WHICH SUGGESTS LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S...COLDEST NORTH OF HWY 64. CAN`T
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE COLDER/SHELTERED SPOTS...BUT GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE
PRES GRADIENT AND SOME SFC WIND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNRISE...SO THAT
COULD HELP TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD COLDER TEMPS AND FROST. THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH A
CHILLY AND DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN.
RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO EXPECT LESS WIND SUNDAY MORNING
COMPARED TO SATURDAY...THUS TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE TO VALUES NEEDED FOR
PATCHY FROST. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE WORTH CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES
WITH LATER FORECASTS.
ON SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
TN VALLEY IN THE MORNING TO OUR WESTERN PIEDMONT BY EVENING. WITH A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH (THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AND WNW MIDLEVEL FLOW GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI)...I`M A
LITTLE LEARY OF THE PRECIP THAT THE GFS IS GENERATING OVER OUR AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS AOB 10 PERCENT FOR THIS TIME...BUT IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND WETTER...MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS TIME WITH FUTURE
FORECAST CYCLES.
THEREAFTER...THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND TREND COOLER
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS DEEPEN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. WHAT THIS
MEANS FOR US IS A CONTINUATION OF THE COOL TREND FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...WITH MORNING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE EXACT TIMING
AND DETAILS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...BUT
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE ONE POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASED POPS ALONG/AHEAD
OF IT...AND THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. SURGES OF
COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW EACH OF THESE WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM THURSDAY...
MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA HAS DIMINISHED OR MOVED TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS OF 06Z. A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VA
WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH...AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
DRIFTING FROM KENTUCKY ACROSS NC/VA...ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT...MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VFR LEVELS...WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY FALLING TO AROUND 4-5K FT LATER
THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY AROUND
12KT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SHOWERS...OR POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR ANY MENTION IN THE CURRENT
TAF. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING STRATUS REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AS RAIN BEGINS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DIVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS WILL BE MOST PREDOMINATE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NC THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING.
DRIER AIR AD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...NMP
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
829 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS EVENING IS TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY A BIT
EARLY. WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO GO
DOWN AS THE SFC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. RADAR HAS SOME FAIRLY DECENT RETURNS OUT WEST OF
KBIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. NAM CAPTURES THIS PRETTY WELL...BUT HAS
THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. HRRR HAS THE
PRECIP BAND DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT HAS QUITE A BIT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z THAN THE NAM. GIVEN THE
DRY DEWPOINTS AND DECREASING RADAR TRENDS OUT WEST TRUST THE DRY
SOLUTION A BIT MORE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE
20 POPS WE HAVE GOING. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS...WINDS...AND
DEWPOINTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD ENTER KDVL BY 12Z OR SO. PRECIP WILL BE SCATTERED
ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AT 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...FIRST IN THE WEST AND THEN AT KBJI BY 18Z. THE WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH GUSTS UP ABOVE 30 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
WIND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO
MOIST. WILL LEAN TOWARD DRIER GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS GIVEN LACK OF
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO REACH TRUE ADVISORY CRITERIA (SUSTAINED
30 MPH) THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING BEFORE
SUNSET...WILL LEAVE HEADLINE AS IS AND ALLOW THE EVENING SHIFT TO
CANCEL IT EARLY IF NECESSARY.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES FROM
EASTERN MT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM NORTHEAST WY TO NEAR MINOT AND THEN NORTH OF WINNIPEG. BEST
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DRY SLOT
AND MODELS CONTINUE TREND IN KEEPING MAJORITY OF WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND WEST OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN TRIM POPS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR
MUCH OF SATURDAY. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WIND AND INCREASING MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S.
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE WIND ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL INCREASE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH GIVEN 35 TO 50 KTS AT 800 HPA TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. WILL NEED ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL ALLOW CURRENT
HEADLINES TO EXPIRE BEFORE ISSUING NEW PRODUCT. STRONG WIND...
COMBINED WITH LOW RH IN THE DRY SLOT MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...SO WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT AREA FROM 18 TO 01 UTC SATURDAY. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH A DISTINCT
GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING.
REMOVED MAJORITY OF POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IS POSSIBLE GIVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE THE RULE...AND MAY NEED YET ANOTHER ADVISORY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS (MID 40S TO LOW 50S)
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN DAYS.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD COMPARED TO RECENT WARMTH AS 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES DROP TO -6 TO -10 C. AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL
CONTINUE.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG RANGE MODELS INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES LATE.
TO START THE PERIOD FA WILL BE ON WEST EDGE OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO HUDSON BAY FOR DRY AND
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURE VALUES. MODELS DIFFER NEXT
APPROACHING CLOSED LOW WITH GFS MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF.
NORTHERN SOLUTION BRINGS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACROSS WESTERN FA
THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERN SOLUTION DRY. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP LOW POPS GOING.
FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS...DRY FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE. BY
EARLY EVENING TEMPS SHOULD FALL ENOUGH THAT THE RED FLAG WARNING CAN
EITHER BE CANCELLED OR EXPIRED. LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A REPEAT OF
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY. PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY
MENTIONED THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS
THAT WENT OUT ON THEIR SHIFT. MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR SATURDAY WILL BE
THE WIND DIRECTION. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA WINDS WILL TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AND COULD EVEN
BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TODAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE CLOSEST TO RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH.
WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ038-039-049-052-053.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ003-029-030-040.
&&
$$
JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
921 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
.UPDATE...
COLD AIR IS DEEPENING BEHIND A NORTH/SOUTH COLD FRONT MOVING EAST WARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD OVER EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER COLD AIR
OVER NE WY AND THE BLACK HILLS...MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A MID AND UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL BRING
AN END TO THESE SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME
CLOUDINESS LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN THE POPS AND WX TO ACCOUNT FOR EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND LINE OF TSTMS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO
MADE IN THE WIND GRIDS FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE WIND ADVISORY WERE CANCELED.
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IR DATA AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER NE WY...INCLUDING
THE KGCC TERMINAL...UNTIL ABOUT 0600Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
AFTER THAT TIME AND BE MAINLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE BLACK HILLS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWESTERLY AT ABOUT 15-25 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...SLOWLY DECREASING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHEST
GUSTS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE SD
PLAINS INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012/
UPDATE...
A NORTH/SOUTH LINE OF TSTSM EXTENDS FROM ABOUT KD07 TO KIEN AT
2330Z AND IS MOVING E WD ABOUT 30KTS. THE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60KT...BUT ARE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING. WE ARE INCREASING POPS EAST OF THE LINE AND WILL
CARRY LOW POPS FOR ISOLD SHOWERS TO TO THE WEST IN EVG UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN UPPER TROUGH CROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A STRONG WAVE NOW CROSSING THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE STRADDLING THE CWA WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW...GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING...AND COOLER TEMPS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING. RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS STRETCHING TOWARD NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA.
TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT CONVERGING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. LATEST
RUC SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG EXTENDING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WITH DEEP SHEAR THROUGH THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS HAVE
ALREADY PRODUCED MODERATE SIZE HAIL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM OR TWO TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE RADAR SHOWS SOME STORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS HAVE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS TODAY...BUT HAVE FAILED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE PLAINS CLOSER TO THE BLACK HILLS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DRY LINE. SO WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING TILL 900 PM MDT EVEN FOR THE FOOTHILLS. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...ENDING
THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
REMAIN AT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT GIVEN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO HAVE EXTENDING THE ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA SATURDAY AS IT
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LINGERING PRECIP
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS. EXCEPT
FOR THE GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY BRINGING MORE SUNSHINE AND WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10
TO 20 MPH...THOUGH WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA COULD BE
STRONGER. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.
EXTENDED...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS VERY COMPLICATED GIVEN A FRACTURING
WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES/UNKNOWN POSITIONING OF THE JAMES BAY
VORTEX/AND THE DEGREE OF WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING. FORECAST MODELS
TAKE A SPLIT PER DETAILS MID NEXT WEEK ON...WITH CLEAR DIVISION IN
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A DEEP HUDSON BAY
VORTEX WITH BLOCKED DOWNSTREAM FLOW WOULD CERTAINLY OFFER MUCH
COOLER THERMAL FIELDS INTO THE AREA...AND THE GEM/ECMWF SUPPORT A
SOLUTION IN THIS DIRECTION GIVEN A WESTERN BIASED EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN TYPICAL POOR HANDLING OF HUDSON/JAMES BAY VORTEX
POSITIONING...WITH FORECAST MODELS TENDING TO BE BIASED TOO FAR EAST
/ESP THE GFS/ WILL SIDE HEAVIER TOWARD AN ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION. THIS
CONCERN COMBINED WITH SIGNALS FOR CONTINUED EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW SUPPORTS THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD ATTM...UNTIL TRENDS ARE ESTABLISHED. ALSO RETAINED POPS
PER THE THUR SYSTEM. TYPICALLY POORLY HANDLED FRACTURING MID LEVEL
IMPULSE CERTAINLY IS FROM BEING ASCERTAINED ATTM...WITH FORECAST
CONSISTENCY PREFERRED. CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE A RAIN EVENT ALTHOUGH
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM. HENCE...ADDED A
SNOW MENTION...ESP IN LIGHT OF ECMWF/GEM THERMAL FIELDS.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OUTSIDE WED NIGHT-THUR ATTM.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR BADLANDS AREA-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS-
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS-SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA-
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR BUTTE-HARDING-
NORTHERN MEAD CO PLAINS-PERKINS-SOUTHERN MEAD CO PLAINS-
ZIEBACH.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CROOK AND WESTON COUNTIES-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...BARBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
645 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
.UPDATE...
RECENT BREACH OF CAPPING IN FLOYD COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN A LONE
TSTRM DOWNSTREAM OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED FROM WEST OF TULIA
SOUTH TO POST. SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE IS LARGELY
ABSENT AND THIS MAY KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL TSRA VERY BRIEF/SHORT LIVED
UNTIL A SELY LLJ AMPLIFIES AFTER SUNSET. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS TAKING AIM IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR CREDIBLE WITH A MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT EMERGING IN THIS AREA IN THE COMING
HOURS...SO HAVE TAILORED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH ISOLATED MENTION
ACROSS OUR NERN COUNTIES. ISOLATED SEVERE REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT
LIMITED THERMODYNAMICS AND SHEAR DO NOT APPEAR ROBUST ENOUGH FOR
EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR. DRYLINE JUST EAST OF LBB HAS ATTEMPTED TO SPUR
TSRA DEVELOPMENT...BUT A MORE DEFINITIVE THREAT OF TSRA SHOULD
EMERGE SHORTLY FARTHER NORTH BEFORE TRANSLATING EAST NEAR CDS
LATER THIS EVENING. OPTED TO INSERT TEMPO MENTION AT CDS 02-04Z.
OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH SATURDAY CLEARING LBB BY
BY MIDDAY WITH POST-FRONTAL MVFR STRATUS MOST LIKELY AT CDS.
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA NEAR THIS FRONT LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
THIS SHOULD RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012/
SHORT TERM...
A BROAD UA DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO TRANSLATE ENE TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT THE SFC...THE DRYLINE WAS
COMMENCED TO TAKE SHAPE ALBEIT DIFFUSED...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
FALLEN BELOW 15 PERCENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE...AS 15 MPH
SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS ENSUED. WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE SAID
AREA. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING IS
VALID...GIVEN THE WIND SPEED AND TIME CRITERIA NOT EXPECTING TO
EXCEED FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...REFER TO
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
20Z VIS SATELLITE HINTED AT RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE WITH CU FIELDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...NEAR SILVERTON AND TULIA WHERE THE CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO
BE BEST. THIS IS A LOCATION THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS NO SURPRISE TO SEE A
LACK OF CONVECTION ATTM DUE TO THE PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING A CAPPING INVERSION. THERE ARE HINTS OF THE CAP BECOMING
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED/BREAKING AOA 00Z...THANKS TO WINDS BACKING
EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND THUS INCREASING SFC CONVERGENCE. FORECAST
MODELS APPEAR TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP...AS THE NAM
IS VOID OF DRYLINE CONVECTION /STRONG CAP/ VERSUS THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DISPLAYING CI BETWEEN 00-06Z. DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE SCALE FORCING...THE SOLE MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER IF STORMS DO INDEED BREAK
THE CAP...IT WILL BE TAPPING INTO SFC-BASED CAPE NEAR 1000
J/KG...30+ KTS OF 0-4 KM BULK SHEAR THAT ARE ALIGNED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE DRYLINE...COMBINED WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST
DISCRETE HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE GUSTS AND QUARTER-SIZED
HAIL.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE ABL WILL COOL AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. OVER NIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE UPPER 50 SE...AS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO HANG UP JUST EAST OF THE NW ZONES /THUS
ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS TO OCCUR/. CONCURRENTLY...THE UA
DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR BREEZY COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THUS DEMOLISHING THE DRYLINE. FORECAST
MODELS DO AGREE THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING...MOISTURE /PWATS BETWEEN 0.85-1.00 INCH/ AND INSTABILITY
/SFC-BASED CAPE AOA 1600 J/KG/ TO INDUCE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT AND POSE A RISK OF STORMS APPROACHING STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS
WITH MODERATE RAINFALL. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES...EXTENDING NE TO PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT THAT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE FROPA. 29
LONG TERM...
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW LIFTS THROUGH JUST TO THE SOUTH. WE WILL RETAIN MODERATE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING FAVORING OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES WHILE RETAINING LOW CHANCE FURTHER NORTH AS IT IS STILL NOT
VERY CLEAR VERY HOW QUICKLY MOST OF THE AREA WILL STABILIZE. FOR
THAT MATTER...EVEN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INVADING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDER SEEMS JUSTIFIED UNTIL THIS WAVE CLEARS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPER AIRMASS DRYING ENSUES. WE ARE FAVORING LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINING TOO STABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT THUNDER MENTION
FOR NOW AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH.
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK STILL APPEARS INTERESTING WITH RIDGE
AXIS BUILDING JUST TO OUR WEST AND FAIRLY MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW PILING DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AREA. SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND
APPEARS MAY BE MET BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTHWARD LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. UNCLEAR IF CONVECTION WILL ERUPT OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BUT IF IT DOES THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW TO
STEER ACTIVITY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY
NIGHT FAVORING MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. TUESDAY MAY SEE FURTHER
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY TOO
STABLE TO SERIOUSLY CONSIDER THUNDER. BUT MESO-SCALE FEATURES
LIKELY WILL DOMINATE AGAIN BY THAT TIME AND TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL
DOWN THESE FEATURES. WE WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE LATE TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS POTENTIALLY THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE
COMING WEEK WITH A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER LOW LIFTING FROM THE WEST
COAST INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND TIGHTENING
THE DRY-LINE ACROSS THE AREA. MINOR CHANGES AT THIS POINT TO
INDICATE DRY-LINE THUNDER CHANCES INITIALLY FAVORING WEST AND
CENTRAL ZONES SWINGING INTO EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY ALSO APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER POSSIBLY DRY-LINE DAY FAVORING
EASTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY AT THIS POINT
POTENTIALLY TOO DRY TO CONSIDER THUNDER WITH MOISTURE PLUME
FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COMING WEEK OTHER THAN A MINOR COOL-DOWN ON
EASTER DAY AND ALSO PERHAPS TUESDAY. LOW DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
SPREAD WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AT LEAST.
RMCQUEEN
FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYLINE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...ALBEIT
DIFFUSED...SETTING UP ACROSS LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINTS
WHERE IN THE 30S AND 40S. SOUTHERLY 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS RANGING
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH COMBINED WITH TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SAID AREA. IT APPEARS VALIDATED TO NOT ISSUE ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
ATTM GIVEN THE WIND SPEED AND TIME CRITERIA NOT EXPECTING TO
EXCEED FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 44 68 46 74 51 / 10 10 20 20 20
TULIA 48 68 48 73 52 / 20 10 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 51 71 49 73 52 / 20 10 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 51 75 50 73 53 / 10 10 30 30 10
LUBBOCK 54 75 52 74 54 / 10 20 30 30 10
DENVER CITY 53 79 52 73 53 / 10 20 50 30 20
BROWNFIELD 53 78 52 73 54 / 10 20 40 30 10
CHILDRESS 57 76 53 75 56 / 20 20 20 30 20
SPUR 55 79 54 75 55 / 20 30 50 30 10
ASPERMONT 57 82 56 76 57 / 20 50 60 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1038 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. VERY QUIET DAY SO FAR WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S LAKESIDE TO THE MIDDLE 50S OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LOOKING UPSTREAM...STRONG TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES IS CREATING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY FEW PRECIP REPORTS WITHIN THE MOISTURE CHANNEL AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH...THOUGH THERE WERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLIER.
WITH A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS IN PLACE...FIRST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
FREEZE HEADLINES...THEN PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TO
INDIANA AND OHIO BY 12Z SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING THROUGH THE COLUMN AND
A VERY DRY AIRMASS SUPPORTS CONTINUING GOING CLEAR TONIGHT THOUGH
LOWS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD...THANKS TO WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS AND
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. BUT
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS TEMPS FALLING AT OR BELOW 28 DEGREES FROM
EASTERN VILAS/ONEIDA TO NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTIES. WILL ISSUE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
SATURDAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...BUT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
STARTING ROUGHLY LATE IN THE MORNING AND THEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS RATHER BEEFY...CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT DOES NOT. INSTABILITY IS NOT THERE EITHER...AND
MODIFYING NAM SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOWS AROUND 12 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE
DUE TO A WARM LAYER CENTERED APPROX AT AROUND 650MB. WITH
SATURATION ONLY OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT A 150MB LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND
700MB...THINK WILL SEE A SOMEWHAT NARROW BAND OF SCT TO BKN SHOWER
COVERAGE. WILL ONLY HAVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF INCH OF QPF...SO NOT
EXPECTING A BIG WASH OUT TO RUIN OUTDOOR PLANS. TEMPS WILL COOL
BEHIND THE FRONT ONCE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER ARRIVE. HIGHS
WILL REACH FROM AROUND 60 WEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EAST.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...PCPN TRENDS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON EASTER SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROF WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS (HIGH POP/LOW
QPF EVENT) FOR THE EVENING...BUT REMOVED ALL PCPN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING (750-700 MB)...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT WARMER...DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...DROPPED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE...AND BOOSTED WIND GUSTS
TO 30 TO 35 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH
THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON EASTER SUNDAY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MORE DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
TO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE HIGH OVER
THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS SLIDES IT SLOWLY TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTN SAT...THEN LOWER FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SAT. ANTICIPATE
FEW TO SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND CIGS
LOWERING FROM AROUND 5500 FT MID AFTERNOON DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT
TE
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1030 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
230 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY...DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDWEST/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION...INTO WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CANADA. EAST/SOUTHEAST COOL
AND DRY OUTFLOW FROM THE HIGH KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20 PERCENT RANGE.
06.12Z NCEP NAM/GFS AS WELL AS A FEW OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS
SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY.
NAM/GFS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF/GEM STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE HIGH MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN/IA
BY DAYBREAK. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL RESULT OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH ANY RAIN REMAINING WELL WEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO A FEW LOWER 40S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.
MODELS STILL SHOW DIMINISHING 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER 500-300MB PV ADVECTION REMAINING NORTH
OF US. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL...STILL THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT WITH RAINFALL
OF A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH. BASED ON THESE SIGNALS...WENT WITH
GENERAL 40-50 POPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH 60/LIKELY POPS ACROSS TAYLOR
AND CLARK COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE BETTER PV-ADVECTION. APPEARS THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
EVENING. CAPE IS MINIMAL WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO CONTINUED
THE THUNDERLESS FORECAST AS WELL.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE DEEP LOW MOVING TOWARD
HUDSON BAY CANADA WHILE A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
THROUGH NORTHERN MN/WI. NAM/GFS SHOW A FEW INTERESTING THINGS
HAPPENING WITH THIS SCENARIO: FIRST IS A NOSE OF 925MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 9-13C RANGE. SECONDLY...DEEP MIXING INDICATED BY BUFKIT DATA
WITH MIXING ALMOST 700MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIXING DRIER/HIGHER
WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL...HAVE
INCREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS LATER IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO LOWERED DEW POINTS SOME WITH THE DRIER AIR MIXING
DOWN. THIS HAS CAUSED AN INCREASE CONCERN IN THE AREA OF FIRE
WEATHER. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED A SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S
NORTH OF I-94 TO THE LOWER MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OOZING INTO THE REGION. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WHICH WILL ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR AS HIGHS TOP OFF ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
230 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
06.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ARE AT ODDS IN HANDLING OF
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND BOTTOM LINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS //WHICH IS SHOWING A BIT MORE RUN-RUN
CONSISTENCY// TAKES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND MOVES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW BRINGS RAIN INTO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND WANTS TO DIG THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEEPING US HIGH AND DRY. WILL
GO FOR A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW WHICH SPREADS SMALL 20-30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
CHILLY WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE 50S
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON POSSIBLE
FREEZE HEADLINES MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...
1030 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...LIKELY MOVING ACROSS KRST BETWEEN 21-00Z AND KLSE 00-02Z
SAT. MODELS POINT TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER SATURATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MATCHING WITH LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SFC OBS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...A
SCT-BKN LINE OF -SHRA APPEARS LIKELY...AND WILL USE -SHRA IN THE
TAFS. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO...SO DON/T EXPECT ANY
THUNDER.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MIXING
PROMOTING SOME GUSTS AHEAD...AND ESPECIALLY POST THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY
230 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
BREEZY WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20-25 PERCENT
RANGE WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN SUNDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....DAS
LONG TERM......DAS
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
705 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. VERY QUIET DAY SO FAR WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S LAKESIDE TO THE MIDDLE 50S OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LOOKING UPSTREAM...STRONG TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES IS CREATING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY FEW PRECIP REPORTS WITHIN THE MOISTURE CHANNEL AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH...THOUGH THERE WERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLIER.
WITH A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS IN PLACE...FIRST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
FREEZE HEADLINES...THEN PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TO
INDIANA AND OHIO BY 12Z SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING THROUGH THE COLUMN AND
A VERY DRY AIRMASS SUPPORTS CONTINUING GOING CLEAR TONIGHT THOUGH
LOWS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD...THANKS TO WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS AND
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. BUT
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS TEMPS FALLING AT OR BELOW 28 DEGREES FROM
EASTERN VILAS/ONEIDA TO NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTIES. WILL ISSUE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
SATURDAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...BUT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
STARTING ROUGHLY LATE IN THE MORNING AND THEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS RATHER BEEFY...CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT DOES NOT. INSTABILITY IS NOT THERE EITHER...AND
MODIFYING NAM SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOWS AROUND 12 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE
DUE TO A WARM LAYER CENTERED APPROX AT AROUND 650MB. WITH
SATURATION ONLY OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT A 150MB LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND
700MB...THINK WILL SEE A SOMEWHAT NARROW BAND OF SCT TO BKN SHOWER
COVERAGE. WILL ONLY HAVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF INCH OF QPF...SO NOT
EXPECTING A BIG WASH OUT TO RUIN OUTDOOR PLANS. TEMPS WILL COOL
BEHIND THE FRONT ONCE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER ARRIVE. HIGHS
WILL REACH FROM AROUND 60 WEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EAST.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...PCPN TRENDS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON EASTER SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROF WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS (HIGH POP/LOW
QPF EVENT) FOR THE EVENING...BUT REMOVED ALL PCPN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING (750-700 MB)...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT WARMER...DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...DROPPED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE...AND BOOSTED WIND GUSTS
TO 30 TO 35 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH
THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON EASTER SUNDAY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MORE DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
TO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE HIGH OVER
THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS SLIDES IT SLOWLY TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTN SAT...THEN LOWER FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SAT. ANTICIPATE
FEW TO SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND CIGS
LOWERING FROM AROUND 5500 FT MID AFTERNOON DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS.
TE
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
MIN TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S RANGE
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...FREEZE WARNING FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING. 925MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND 1C TONIGHT. WITH A
MODERATE TO WEAK INVERSION...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 27 TO 30
DEGREE RANGE. NAM...ECMWF AND GEM MODELS SHOW THE COLDEST TEMPS
TONIGHT. OTHER MODELS STRUGGLE TO DROP THE TEMPS BELOW 30 DEGREES
WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE.
THE COLDEST CORE OF THE 850MB TEMPS MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI DURING
THE NIGHT AND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD MORNING. WEAKEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT MOVE OVERHEAD UNTIL AFTER 9Z. WITH LAKE TEMPS
AROUND 43F/6C AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -2C...THE 8C LAKE-AIR
DIFFERENCE COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST
WI. RUC SHOWS THEM OVER THAT AREA BETWEEN 4Z AND 10Z. 1000-850MB RH
PLOTS SHOW THE AREA OF HIGHER RH SHIFTING INLAND AND DRYING OUT
TOWARD FRI MORNING. THE RUC DOES LOOK OVERDONE IN ITS INITIALIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. THE NAM AND
GFS ALSO HINT AT THE LAKE CLOUD POSSIBILITY...BUT DO NOT SEEM OVERLY
EXCITED. ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WOULD INHIBIT TEMPS FROM GETTING
BELOW FREEZING.
GRADIENT OF COLDER 925 MB TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE EAST WITH
WARMER READINGS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY WEST YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S IN THE WESTERN 2/3 OF FORECAST AREA...WITH MID TO
UPPER 40S IN THE EAST.
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
PUSHES EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT REACHES NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING.
THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCES A STRONG LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA AS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXITS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CAP AROUND 7 THSD
FT WITH THE CAP WEAKENING SATURDAY EVENING AS SATURATION OCCURS
MAINLY BETWEEN 6 AND 12 THSD FT. ELEVATED CAPE IS MINIMAL SO WILL
GO WITH JUST A BAND OF SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY RATHER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD INHIBIT FROST POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT DUE TO
WIND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST U.S. WEST/NORTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW
EXPECT SOME STRATOCUMULUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME AS THE MAIN
SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...
.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF KEEP THE NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA.
THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AND A FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST.
.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH THE MID/UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE EASTERN HIGH PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WI OVERNIGHT WILL BRING
DECREASING WINDS TOWARD FRI MORNING. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...BUT IT
SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT THERE IS A THREAT FOR LAKE-INDUCED MVFR
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...THEN DISSIPATE FRI MORNING AS THE WEAKER WINDS AND DRIER AIR
MOVE OVERHEAD. MOST PROBABLY TIME PERIOD IF THEY WERE TO DEVELOP
WOULD BE 04Z TO 10Z.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE EARLY THIS EVENING
AS GRADIENT RELAXES WITH CORE OF HIGH SETTLING DOWN INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN BY 12Z FRIDAY... BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN HIGH UNTIL THE
MID-OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC/MEB
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
325 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
325 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.
CURRENT LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY WITH DRY/COOL NORTHEAST FLOW
SET UP INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES READINGS IN
THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE.
05.12Z NCEP MODEL SUITE AS WELL AS THE GEM/ECMWF ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY SINK SLOWLY SOUTH
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR BY MORNING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP
PRETTY MUCH SQUARE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID
DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER CAUSING WINDS TO BE VERY
LIGHT TO CALM. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WEST OF THE RIVER...WINDS MAY NOT
DECOUPLE ALL THE WAY AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME LIGHT
STIRRING GOING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 32 DEGREES.
STILL...THERE WILL LIKELY BE POCKETS OF COLDER TEMPERATURES WHERE
WINDS DO DECOUPLE. WITH THIS IN MIND...AND COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM
TO 8 AM.
LOOK FOR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO SLIP EAST INTO LOWER MI ON
FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO ALONG THE MT/DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL SET
U INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER/MORE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. LOOKING
FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
AND 10-20 MPH ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED WIND AREAS. ALSO ON
FRIDAY...925-850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 4-6C RANGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WE WILL STILL SEE DRY OUTFLOW FROM THE HIGHS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. THIS COULD RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. MORE DETAIL CAN BE FOUND BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION.
NEXT ON THE DOCKET WILL BE INCOMING COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. MODELS
SHOWING DIMINISHING 850-925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...NIL TO
MINIMAL MUCAPE WAS NOTED BY THE NAM/GFS. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL...HAVE
PULLED ANY THUNDER MENTION. BOTTOM LINE RESULT WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL OF A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OR SO.
WILL MAINTAIN A 40-50 POP FOR NOW BASED ON THIS REASONING. APPEARS
FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE AREA IN BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA.
WINDS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40
MPH POSSIBLE IF FULL MIXING CAN BE REALIZED. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
FIELD OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS ALSO EXPECTED WITH COOLER CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF
I-90 AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
325 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
05.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
BOTH SHOW A COOLING/DRY TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...AS COLD CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE OOZES INTO THE REGION. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME MODEST WARMING THEN
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND
HEIGHT BUILD ALOFT. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE
WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
1150 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012
QUIET 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES WITH WIND THE ONLY CONCERN WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO. OUTSIDE OF SOME
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE EAST TODAY BEFORE
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 9 TO 12 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
GUSTS BRIEFLY IN THE 16 TO 18 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH FRIDAY
325 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
ONE MORE DAY OF LOW RELATIVE VALUES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. LOOK FOR
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WITH DRY SOUTHEAST
OUTFLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 7-12 MPH RANGE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE OVER THE HIGHER/MORE
WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
325 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
FIRE WEATHER...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
243 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A HUDSON BAY
HIGH ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LOW
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND CREATED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF BKN
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. BUT OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY HAS
WANED SINCE THEN AND CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS NOW EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
TONIGHT...FREEZE HEADLINES ARE THE FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TONIGHT...HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SINK TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY MORNING.
BEFORE THIS OCCURS...0-1KM AGL FLOW WILL BE 15-20KTS OVER
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EVENING SO
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL OFF INITIALLY. BUT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND
BL WINDS BECOME 5KTS OR LESS BY 09Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MANITOWOC AND STURGEON BAY FELL TO 32 AND 30 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY
LAST NIGHT...AND WILL BE OFF TO A COLDER START THIS EVENING THAN
LAST EVENING. WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT...TEMPS DO NOT HAVE MUCH
TO FALL FOR AREAS IN THE FREEZE WATCH TO REACH FREEZE WARNING
CRITERIA (TEMP OF 28F). SO WILL UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH TO A
FREEZE WARNING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT
THE COLD SPOTS...TO AROUND 30F NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
FOR FRIDAY. WITH SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
BY SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. 925MB TEMPS OF 8C OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND 4C OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN CALLS FOR HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S WEST TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EAST.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS
ARE LINGERING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN PCPN TRENDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
A HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL BE EDGING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
LINGERING DRY AIR...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLED WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A HARD FREEZE WILL BE ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE MIN TEMPS SHOULD
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PCPN TRENDS...AND SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS
WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF GRB CWA SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON SAT AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVG. STABILITY INDICES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...
AND AFTER COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
IN OUR NW COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC/NE WI. COOL NORTH
FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR CIGS OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL
DISSOLVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD FROST SHOULD BE PRESENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
MPC
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&
$$
MPC/KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
318 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012
MAIN EMPHASIS OF FORECAST WILL BE ON FREEZE CONDITIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS ALONG WITH LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE LEVELS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MANITOBA AND
HUDSON BAY. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO. DRY/COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WAS RESULTING ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MIDDLE 60S AND DEWPOINTS WAY DOWN IN THE 20S.
04.12Z NAM/GFS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THEN SOME
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROP UP SATURDAY. THE 04.09Z SREF WAS GENERALLY
USED FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
FOR TONIGHT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS LEADING TO A
RAPID DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION...LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS
THAN 5 MPH MOST PLACES WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. PLAN ON THE COLDEST AIR TO BE
OVER THE FAVORED COLD SPOTS ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING HOISTED FOR THIS AREA FROM 2 AM
THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS. CONCERN WILL
AGAIN BE ON THE NEED FOR FREEZE HEADLINES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS DIPPING AGAIN INTO THE MIDDLE 20S AND LOWER
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID/UPPER 20S MORE PREVALENT EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL BE EXPANDING THE
FREEZE WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE AREA. SEE WWA SECTION BELOW AND
LATEST FREEZE WATCH STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.
RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN/MOVE EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. AS STATED
ABOVE...GFS AND NAM ARE DIFFERING AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
WITH THE GFS LOOKING A BIT STRONGER. THIS HAS A BEARING ON SURFACE
COLD FRONT STRENGTH AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL
MOVE IN 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO ABOUT THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING/EXPANDING TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXIT WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS FAR AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PLAN
ON 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING SOME INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
318 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012
04.12Z GFS AND 04.00Z ECMWF IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH OVERALL DRY/COOLER CONDITIONS. BOTH MODELS
SHOW THE AREA IN BREEZY DRYING WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO CANADA. BREEZY/COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW INVADES THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE ANCHORS
OVER QUEBEC. SOME WARMING THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S
SUNDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
MONDAY/TUESDAY...AND THEN BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
1100 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SUGGEST DEEP MIXING DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...LIKELY
RESULTING IN SOME GUSTINESS...MAINLY FOR KRST. DECOUPLING BY SUNDOWN
WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS...LIKELY LIGHT/VRBL AT KLSE. DIRECTIONS
SHOULD STAY EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRI.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
318 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012
HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL PUMP A VERY DRY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH READINGS IN
THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY...MODERATING A FEW PERCENTAGE
POINTS INTO THE MID 20S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK GENERALLY ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE THURSDAY OUT OF THE EAST SOMEWHERE IN THE 5-12 MPH
RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
318 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012
WI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-034- 042>044.
MN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....DAS
LONG TERM......DAS
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
337 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST SLOWLY THIS MORNING...AND WINDS
STARTING TO GET A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT EARLY AFTER AN EVENING OF
RATHER LIGHT TO CALM WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEXT WAVE BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WILL BE
THE FIRST ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST. BEYOND THAT...FORECAST IS RATHER
QUIET AND A MATTER OF TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST UNTIL LATE DAY 6.
00Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THRU
WEDNESDAY...HINTING AT MORE OF A CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPING UP TODAY AND USHERING IN SOME WARMER
AIR AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER
WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR AND 4KM WRF STILL HINTING AT A
BIT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...ALTHOUGH BREAKING
UP AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BEST CHANCES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FRONT PROVES TO BE MORE OF A WIND SHIFT
AND A PRECIP CHANCE THAN AN ACTUAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR...AS
TOMORROWS HIGHS LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS...NOT A BIG AIRMASS
CHANGE AT ALL.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND A BIT COOLER AS THE COOLER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE ACTUALLY ARRIVES. REGION
REMAINS UNDER A NWRLY FLOW...WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PERSISTING IN THE PLAINS STATES. BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY-FRI NIGHT IS A BIT OF CONUNDRUM FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODELS...AND DISCREPANCIES BTWN THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF IS RESULTING IN A SPREAD OUT TIME FRAME FOR POPS IN
THE ALLBLEND. HAVE TRIED TO BE CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT UNTIL ONE OR
BOTH OF THE MODELS CLEANS UP A BIT. FOR NOW...CHC POPS THUR NIGHT
THRU FRI NIGHT. EXPECT A FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS POINT
WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT WORKING OUT A FEW KINKS.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1143 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME. THIS QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE COURTESY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED
DRY AIRMASS. LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL VFR...WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
IN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES/MOVES THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION RISK WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE APPEARS TO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TREND SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...AND WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.
BAK
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS BEING PUSHED
EASTWARD BY A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
RESULTING IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NE. LOW CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WESTERN IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
00Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
SWEEPING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED TO REACH .75-1.00 INCH
THIS AFTERNOON...A LACK OF FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT QPF. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...AND LITTLE IF ANY CAPE IS AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDER. TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT MAXES TO THE EAST SHOULD REACH NEAR
YESTERDAY`S READINGS.
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AS WILL THE
CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 30S...BUT NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP DURING THE NIGHT AND LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FROST
WILL BE AN ISSUE...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. WOLF
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
FROST/FREEZE RISK FOR POSSIBLY SEVERAL LATE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS
EARLY TO MID WEEK REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OVERALL... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES BETWEEN DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
QUEBEC. TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD AND BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK
WITH SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. COUPLE OF DEEP MIXING DAYS
(ROUGHLY 700-775 MILLIBARS) SUN-MON DEPICTED BY GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTS HIGHS NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE... A TREND
OF LATE. WINDS MAY NEED TO BUMPED UP A BIT AS WELL BOTH DAYS WITH
AT LEAST BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY 20-25 KTS
SHOWN THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AND 30-35+ KTS SITTING ATOP. ADJUSTED
DEWPTS DOWN ESPECIALLY BOTH AFTNS IN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD 20S WITH POSSIBLY FEW TEENS. DRY AIR WILL
ALSO AID IN WIDENING DIURNAL RANGE... WITH NEAR TO JUST BELOW COLDEST
GUIDANCE ON LOWS. SOME FROST POSSIBLE LATE MON NGT-EARLY TUE AM... BUT
LIKELY PATCHY AT BEST AND MAINLY IN SHELTERED OR LOW-LYING LOCATIONS AS
MODELS STILL SHOWING SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW OVER QUEBEC
AND HIGH BUILDING SWD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA TO KEEP BL
MIXED WITH 5-10 KT WINDS. COLDEST PERIOD WITH GREATEST FROST AND FREEZE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE TUE NGT-EARLY WED AM WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
IN ALLOWING FOR BL DECOUPLING. MIN TEMP TECHNIQUE USING PROGGED 850
MILLIBAR TEMPS AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
MID AND UPPER 20S FOR LOWS EARLY WED AM... AND IF WINDS WERE TO GO CALM
FOR ANY DURATION THEN LOWER 20S WOULD BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY SHELTERED AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.
CHALLENGE LATE WEEK IS PCPN CHCS/TIMING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE FROM PACIFIC
TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL CONUS... WITH MAIN ISSUE OF TIMING. GFS REMAINS
FASTER AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL RUNS VIA DPROG/DT... AND
WOULD SUPPORT RAIN OVERSPREADING REGION THURS IN WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MEANWHILE... HI-RES ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER PAST FEW RUNS AS IT IS
STRONGER WITH DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR WHICH HOLDS PCPN
AT BAY TO OUR WEST UNTIL FRI. UKMET IS CLOSER TO GFS AT 144 HRS WHICH
AGREES WITH INHERITED FCST AND ALSO INITIALIZED POP GRIDS WITH POPS (SLIGHT
CHC-CHC) SHOWN TO OVERSPREAD CWA THURS AND LINGER INTO FRI. WOULDNT RULE
OUT SOME SLOWING OF SYSTEM THOUGH DUE TO DRY EASTERLY FETCH FROM BENEATH
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. MCCLURE
&&
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012/
VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/07 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOIS FROM IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN WITH
SCATTERED -SHRA FROM MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES 4-10K AGL. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL DOES
EXIST FOR A PERIOD OF HIGHER END MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 06Z/08 AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH MODERATE NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND GUSTY. ..NICHOLS..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF/12/WDN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
420 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
A FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN DAKOTAS PER WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS AS OF
07Z. THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE TIED TO THIS STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. AS 0730Z THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR TRIBUNE NORTHEAST THROUGH WAKEENEY TO NEAR
CONCORDIA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINED UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE
TIME OF DAY GIVEN EARLY APRIL STANDARDS WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID
50S STILL BEING OBSERVED AS OF 07Z. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRIFORM) PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES
RATHER WARM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF
THIS CIRRIFORM CLOUD WAS ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
TODAY:
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS WIND SPEED STRENGTH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE OF THE LATEST RUC13 AND
NAM12 SOLUTIONS...SHOULD BE SEEING 23 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND
ISALLOBARIC/PRESSURE RISES. THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES. AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...NOTHING
WAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HAVE
INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CIRRUS THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT:
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL CLEARLY BE TEMPERATURES. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ANTICIPATED. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS LINE...CLEAR SKIES...AND WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL DOWN INTO THE 32 TO 35F RANGE WITH EASE...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY TO GET
THE WORD OUT FOR AGRICULTURE/NURSERY INTERESTS GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY
EARLY GREEN-UP WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR. SKIN TEMPERATURES COULD GET
DOWN TO 30 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS NORTHWEST OF A HUGOTON-GARDEN
CITY-WAKEENEY LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL COMMENCE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS BY MONDAY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP SUNDAY NIGHT BY CLOUDS AND THEN HELD
DOWN ON MONDAY BY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN. BY TUESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH DEEP
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BY TUESDAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS LOW TO
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, ALONG WITH LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE
GIVEN A STABLY STRATIFIED LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
BY WEDNESDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER
THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW FOR LOW-LEVEL WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION. OTHERWISE, THE
STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES,
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL RELOAD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSE BY, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE. IN
FACT, THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL ALL BE NEARLY IDEAL FOR OUTBREAKS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE, GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL A
WEEK AWAY, IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE IN THE PLAINS THE
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE CONCENTRATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
EVEN DURING THE PERIODS WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS ARE SUPPRESSED TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD
BE HELD UP FOR THE SAME REASONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
STRATUS WITH CEILING OF 1000 TO 2000 FEET WAS EXPANDING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS OF 06Z AND WILL AFFECT GCK, DDC, AND HYS TERMINALS
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES. WILL INCLUDE A 3 HOUR TEMPO GROUP
FROM ROUGHLY 08-11Z FOR IFR CONDITIONS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHEN WINDS GO LIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW VISIBILITY TO FALL BELOW 3
MILES AND/OR CEILING TO DROP TO 500-900 FEET. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CEILINGS DEPARTING AND
VFR CONDITIONS TAKING OVER. WILL KEEP THE VCTS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AT HYS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS MATERIALIZING OVER HYS IS NOT
ALL THAT HIGH WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING EAST OF
HYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 34 71 50 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 63 33 71 47 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 63 34 72 50 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 65 35 71 52 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 64 35 71 45 / 10 0 0 0
P28 68 39 69 50 / 20 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1235 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
A SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES ON THIS MORNING`S 12 UTC OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED ALOFT AS THE
UPPER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SLOWLY GIVES WAY TO THE
ADVANCING TOUGH TOWARD THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS CLOUD COVER ENCOMPASSED ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AND THE 12 UTC
KDDC SOUNDING INDICATED A 5.5 KFT THICK CLOUD LAYER. THIS CLOUD
LAYER WAS ONLY BEGINNING TO SHOW SLIGHT SIGNS OF ERODING NEAR THE
COLORADO STATE LINE BY MIDDLE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
IMMEDIATELY FOR TONIGHT, THE STABLE LAYER WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE
HIRES-ARW AND LOCAL HRRR MODELS BOTH DEVELOP ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE, WHILE THE HIRES-NMM PRODUCES NOTHING ALONG THIS DRYLINE
FEATURE THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE`D EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF
CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT, AS THE NAM BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INDICATE LOWER VALUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM MONTANA INTO WYOMING WILL BE THE
BOUNDARY THAT IS DRIVEN THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER, THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, THE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE NAM MODEL DUE TO THE PRESENT SHALLOW THETA-E
AXIS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG, IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR A FEW STOUT UPDRAFTS AND BRIEF SMALL HAILCORES
THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ROUGHLY EAST
OF A SCOTT CITY TO MINNEOLA AND ASHLAND LINE. ONCE THE BOUNDARY
SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA DEEP DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO ALLOW FULL
SUN FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THE DAYTIME WILL
FAIRLY BREEZY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH AROUND 18Z
BEFORE AN ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES, EASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLACKENING
WINDS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION SHOULD TEMPER THE SURFACE HEATING,
RELEGATING GENERALLY TO THE LOW AND MID 60`S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012
ON THE NEAR SIDE OF THE 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE NOW
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OVERRIDING CONDITIONS OF THE FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, I ADDED A FEW LOWER END POPS
TO THE MONDAY PERIOD, WHICH WERE NOT PREVIOUSLY IN THERE. WILL
BRING IN 20 POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN 1 TO 2 TIER OF COUNTIES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, AND THEN CONCENTRATE 20 POPS NORTH AND 30 POPS SOUTH
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVER RUNNING
WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SLIGHT STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE, INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE NEAR A JOHNSON
CITY TO DODGE CITY TO PRATT LINE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
WANDER NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO JUST WEST OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE 50 TO 55
PERCENT RANGE WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT REDUCE TO 40 PERCENT. BY FRIDAY,
THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY IN OUR WEST AND PARTLY CLOUDY IN OUR
EASTERN CWA. THROUGH THE MONDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD, SOME SPOTS MAY
RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 0.66 INCH OF RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN 2
TIER OF COUNTIES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SUNDAY MORNING IS THE MOST INTERESTING AND
CHALLENGING. USING THE LOW END VALUES OF THE MINXXX (GCK, DDC, ETC)
GUIDANCE TO POPULATE THE SAT NT/SUN MORN MIN T`S, AND THE RESULT WAS
AS COLD AS 32F AT SCOTT CITY, 34F NORTHWEST OF A DIGHTON TO JOHNSON
CITY LINE, AND AROUND 35F OR BELOW NORTHWEST OF A HAYS TO SUBLETTE
TO NEAR HUGOTON LINE. AT FIRST, I LEANED TOWARD A FROST ADVISORY
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST TIER OF COUNTIES, BUT DECIDED TO USE A MORE
GRADUAL APPROACH, AND INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO REFLECT THIS AS WELL.
MINS SHOULD INCREASE AS SOON AS MON MORNING SINCE THE WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE CLOSER, THE OVER RUNNING CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE AREA, AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WARM, MOIST AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN OUR NORTH TO NEAR 50F DEGREES IN
OUR SOUTH. MINS WILL BE SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
COOL A BIT INTO THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SE BY
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION, WITH SUNDAY STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S, WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT, AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. THE FRONT COULD BE NUDGING FARTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY,
WITH RESULTANT MAX TEMPS RESPONDING LIKEWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE MID 60S IN OUR NORTHEAST
SECTIONS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A LITTLE COOL AIR RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH, WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 70F DEGREES
IN OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE MID 60S IN OUR NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
STRATUS WITH CEILING OF 1000 TO 2000 FEET WAS EXPANDING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS OF 06Z AND WILL AFFECT GCK, DDC, AND HYS TERMINALS
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES. WILL INCLUDE A 3 HOUR TEMPO GROUP
FROM ROUGHLY 08-11Z FOR IFR CONDITIONS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHEN WINDS GO LIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW VISIBILITY TO FALL BELOW 3
MILES AND/OR CEILING TO DROP TO 500-900 FEET. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CEILINGS DEPARTING AND
VFR CONDITIONS TAKING OVER. WILL KEEP THE VCTS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AT HYS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS MATERIALIZING OVER HYS IS NOT
ALL THAT HIGH WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING EAST OF
HYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 36 68 47 72 / 0 0 20 30
GCK 34 71 47 71 / 0 0 20 20
EHA 37 72 48 75 / 0 0 20 20
LBL 37 71 49 75 / 0 0 30 30
HYS 35 68 45 69 / 0 0 10 10
P28 39 69 49 73 / 0 10 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1105 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WITH RADAR
INDICATING IT RECENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WRAY AREA. WRAY AWOS
INDICATED PEAK WINDS AT 45 MPH AS IT PASSED...BUT SO FAR IT
APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING THERE AND WANT TO
GET A FEEL FOR HOW LONG WINDS WILL LAST BEFORE CONSIDERING A NEW
ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS BEHIND FRONT...STARTING TO SEE
SOME FOG AND MVFR/IFR STRATUS DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT IN AREA OF
CLEARING AND HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
FOR THUNDER CHANCES...WITH EXCEPTION OF RECENT RUN OF HRRR MODELS
NOT REALLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND GIVEN OBSERVED INVERSION ALOFT AND EXPECTED CINH VALUES IT
WILL BE TOUGH TO INITIATE AND MAINTAIN A STORM TONIGHT. SO
FAR...PRECIP HAS STRUGGLED TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WARM/DRY H7 THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS AND THINK THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CAP TO WEAKEN BTWN
06-09Z ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST SO WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENT CHANCES
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
ALSO BASED ON LATEST DATA HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACROSS CWA TOMORROW
AND LOWERED TDS AS MUCH DRIER AIR NOTED BEHIND FRONT. STARTING TO
GET CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS TOMORROW...BUT
WILL WAIT TO GET FULL SUITE OF 00Z DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 445 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
DRYLINE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST...WITH TDS IN SEVERAL
AREAS FALLING 30+ DEGREES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA...A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A SHORT WHILE WEST OF A YUMA TO FIRSTVIEW LINE. ALSO
SEEING A LARGE PLUME OF DUST BEHIND DRYLINE STARTING TO NEAR THE
WESTERN CWA. WITH DRYLINE EXPECTED TO RETREAT SOME IN THE EARLY
EVENING AND RECENT RAINFALL...THINK THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO
SHORT LIVED AND ISOLATED TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT HAVE
UPDATED ALL FIRE PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.
VISIBILITIES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT LOW IN DUST PLUME AS CWA IS
PRETTY FAR FROM SOURCE REGION AND DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE A
LARGE SENSIBLE IMPACT ON AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
STARTING AROUND 01Z IN YUMA COUNTY AND CLEARING ALL COUNTIES BY 08Z.
12Z NAM SHOWS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OF 500 J/KG AND ELEVATED
CAPE TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z.
NAM ALSO SHOWS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 5-7 MB BEHIND COLD FRONT SO A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TRAIL BEHIND FRONT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE RUNNING 25-35 KNOTS...SO HAVE HOISTED A
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
FAIRLY DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM 6 TO 9 DEGREES C
WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY IN THE
MORNING TO AROUND 25 MPH BUT WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FACT THE MOST OF THE REGION RECEIVED 1.50
INCHES OF RAIN IN RECENT DAYS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP...DO NOT
FEEL THE NEED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST/SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO TO WICHITA COUNTY KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO DUE TO LACK OF MUCH UPPER AIR
ASCENT AND LOW BOUNDARY LEVEL DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...WILL PLACE
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S SUNDAY
MORNING...SO BRIEFLY CONSIDERED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE
ADVISORY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING/CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...TO
HELP PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO LOW. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED...HOWEVER.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
DIFFER IN THE LOCATION OF 500 MB FEATURES. RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY WHILE SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD
FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS
LOOK GOOD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS
MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE 500 MB LOW BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IN FACT...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500 MB LOW OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE GFS SWEEPS
PRECIPITATION EAST BY THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
GOING DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN SITUATION. THE NEXT LOW DEEPENS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY WHICH PLACES THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI APR 6 2012
COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH BOTH TERMINAL LOCATIONS WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND SMALL AREA OF LOW MVFR TO IFR
STRATUS IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
TRYING TO DEVELOP AS WELL. COVERAGE LOOKS TO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AND WITH FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH ANY THREAT WOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. LIKEWISE LINGERING STRATUS LOOKS TO BE CLEARING
RAPIDLY BEHIND FRONT SO HAVE DOUBTS THAT IT WILL LINGER MUCH PAST
06Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL QUICKLY
PICK UP TO 20 TO 25KTS DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
646 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION ONGOING IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. RAPID
REFRESH RUC DATA IS HANDLING THIS PRETTY WELL AND DEPICTS A NE-SW
ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEV LOPING LATER THIS
MORNING AND MOVING INTO NW ARKANSAS. GIVEN SPARSE NATURE OF
CURRENT STORMS...DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDER...BUT RATHER JUST VCTS WITH BKN060CB AS PREVAILING
CLOUD/WX COMBO. ALSO DID THIS AT KBPK...OFFSET AN HOUR OR SO. MAIN
BATCH OF CONVECTION EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND PRECIP
ALONG THE FRONT DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING. LIMITED
MENTION OF VCTS TO THE NORTHERN SITES...AND LEFT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SITES VFR WITH ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS AFTER 00Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNLESS SHOWERS MOVE OVER
TERMINAL...IN WHICH CASE MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/
SHORT RANGE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
NOT MANY VALUE ADDED CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING
AS ALL SHORT TERM MODELS GENERALLY ON THE SAME PAGE. SINCE I AM NOT
SEEING ANY COMPELLING REASON TO FAVOR ONE MODEL VERSUS ANOTHER...THE
EVER POPULAR BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.
SURFACE ANALYSIS CENTERS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES THE AXIS OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE. BOTH FEATURES EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWING
DOWN AS IT RUNS INTO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ALONG THE EASTERN
GULF COAST. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF TEXAS AND
INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH UPPER PATTERN SHARPENING UP CONSIDERABLY WITH EXPANSIVE
RIDGING GETTING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WE BEGIN WITH
UPPER TROUGHS OFF THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. LATE
WED ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THERE IS A NOTABLE
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE FINE DETAILS...MAINLY WITH WHERE THE
MODELS TAKE THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOC SFC LOW. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN TAKE THE ENERGY INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHERE AS THE
EUROPEAN BRINGS IT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PUSHES A SFC LOW
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO ARKANSAS. DUE TO THE LACK OF
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS I DID NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH AT ALL.
BUT IN GENERAL IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS...AND SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN DURING THE LONG
TERM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 71 54 72 53 / 20 20 20 10
CAMDEN AR 77 57 76 57 / 10 30 40 20
HARRISON AR 71 53 70 52 / 30 30 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 57 74 56 / 20 30 40 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 56 74 55 / 20 20 30 20
MONTICELLO AR 78 56 77 56 / 10 20 30 20
MOUNT IDA AR 75 57 73 56 / 20 30 40 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 53 71 51 / 20 20 20 10
NEWPORT AR 72 55 72 54 / 20 20 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 76 56 75 56 / 10 20 30 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 55 72 54 / 20 30 30 20
SEARCY AR 73 55 73 54 / 20 20 20 10
STUTTGART AR 74 56 74 56 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND JUST UPDATING FOR CLOUDS MOVING
IN A BIT QUICKER FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF I-55.
MILDER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ON EASTER
SUNDAY. BREEZY SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH OVER
CENTRAL IL AND LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS OF 7 TO 14 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST IL.
1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO AND LAKE HURON WAS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OF IL WHILE 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG CANADA HAD A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER WESTERN
IA AND EASTERN KS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE WEST OF
IL AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND DIMINISHING DURING THE MORNING
WITH LOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. 12Z MODELS BRING COLD FRONT EAST
INTO FAR WESTERN IL BY 00Z/7 PM AND INTO EASTERN IL BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL DURING THIS EVENING.
HUETTL
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONT IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS IN THE
02Z-06Z SUN TIMEFRAME...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. ANY
THUNDER LOOKS TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
04
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST SLOWLY THIS MORNING...AND WINDS
STARTING TO GET A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT EARLY AFTER AN EVENING OF
RATHER LIGHT TO CALM WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEXT WAVE BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WILL BE THE
FIRST ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST. BEYOND THAT...FORECAST IS RATHER QUIET
AND A MATTER OF TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST UNTIL LATE DAY 6. 00Z MODEL
RUNS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THRU WEDNESDAY...HINTING AT MORE
OF A CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPING UP TODAY AND USHERING IN SOME WARMER AIR
AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...AT LEAST BRIEFLY. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER WAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR AND 4KM WRF STILL HINTING AT A BIT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...ALTHOUGH BREAKING UP AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BEST CHANCES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FRONT PROVES TO BE MORE OF A WIND SHIFT AND
A PRECIP CHANCE THAN AN ACTUAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR...AS TOMORROWS
HIGHS LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS...NOT A BIG AIRMASS CHANGE AT
ALL.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND A BIT COOLER AS THE COOLER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE ACTUALLY ARRIVES. REGION REMAINS
UNDER A NWRLY FLOW...WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING IN
THE PLAINS STATES. BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
LATE THURSDAY-FRI NIGHT IS A BIT OF CONUNDRUM FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE MODELS...AND DISCREPANCIES BTWN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF IS
RESULTING IN A SPREAD OUT TIME FRAME FOR POPS IN THE ALLBLEND. HAVE
TRIED TO BE CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT UNTIL ONE OR BOTH OF THE MODELS
CLEANS UP A BIT. FOR NOW...CHC POPS THUR NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT.
EXPECT A FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS POINT WITH THE PATTERN
SHIFT WORKING OUT A FEW KINKS.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
615 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST SLOWLY THIS MORNING...AND WINDS
STARTING TO GET A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT EARLY AFTER AN EVENING OF
RATHER LIGHT TO CALM WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEXT WAVE BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WILL BE THE
FIRST ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST. BEYOND THAT...FORECAST IS RATHER QUIET
AND A MATTER OF TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST UNTIL LATE DAY 6. 00Z MODEL
RUNS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THRU WEDNESDAY...HINTING AT MORE
OF A CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPING UP TODAY AND USHERING IN SOME WARMER AIR
AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...AT LEAST BRIEFLY. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER WAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR AND 4KM WRF STILL HINTING AT A BIT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...ALTHOUGH BREAKING UP AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BEST CHANCES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FRONT PROVES TO BE MORE OF A WIND SHIFT AND
A PRECIP CHANCE THAN AN ACTUAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR...AS TOMORROWS
HIGHS LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS...NOT A BIG AIRMASS CHANGE AT
ALL.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND A BIT COOLER AS THE COOLER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE ACTUALLY ARRIVES. REGION REMAINS
UNDER A NWRLY FLOW...WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING IN
THE PLAINS STATES. BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
LATE THURSDAY-FRI NIGHT IS A BIT OF CONUNDRUM FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE MODELS...AND DISCREPANCIES BTWN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF IS
RESULTING IN A SPREAD OUT TIME FRAME FOR POPS IN THE ALLBLEND. HAVE
TRIED TO BE CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT UNTIL ONE OR BOTH OF THE MODELS
CLEANS UP A BIT. FOR NOW...CHC POPS THUR NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT.
EXPECT A FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS POINT WITH THE PATTERN
SHIFT WORKING OUT A FEW KINKS.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONT IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS IN THE
02Z-06Z SUN TIMEFRAME...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. ANY
THUNDER LOOKS TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
04
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
654 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN NE PRECEDED BY BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THEY MOVE
PAST AREA TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH CEILINGS
MAY DROP TO MVFR WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OCCUR. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD EXIT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY VFR CLEAR
CONDITIONS. WOLF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS BEING PUSHED
EASTWARD BY A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
RESULTING IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NE. LOW CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WESTERN IOWA.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
00Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
SWEEPING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED TO REACH .75-1.00 INCH
THIS AFTERNOON...A LACK OF FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT QPF. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...AND LITTLE IF ANY CAPE IS AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDER. TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT MAXES TO THE EAST SHOULD REACH NEAR
YESTERDAY`S READINGS.
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AS WILL THE
CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 30S...BUT NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP DURING THE NIGHT AND LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FROST
WILL BE AN ISSUE...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. WOLF
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
FROST/FREEZE RISK FOR POSSIBLY SEVERAL LATE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS
EARLY TO MID WEEK REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OVERALL... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES BETWEEN DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
QUEBEC. TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD AND BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK
WITH SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. COUPLE OF DEEP MIXING DAYS
(ROUGHLY 700-775 MILLIBARS) SUN-MON DEPICTED BY GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTS HIGHS NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE... A TREND
OF LATE. WINDS MAY NEED TO BUMPED UP A BIT AS WELL BOTH DAYS WITH
AT LEAST BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY 20-25 KTS
SHOWN THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AND 30-35+ KTS SITTING ATOP. ADJUSTED
DEWPTS DOWN ESPECIALLY BOTH AFTNS IN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD 20S WITH POSSIBLY FEW TEENS. DRY AIR WILL
ALSO AID IN WIDENING DIURNAL RANGE... WITH NEAR TO JUST BELOW COLDEST
GUIDANCE ON LOWS. SOME FROST POSSIBLE LATE MON NGT-EARLY TUE AM... BUT
LIKELY PATCHY AT BEST AND MAINLY IN SHELTERED OR LOW-LYING LOCATIONS AS
MODELS STILL SHOWING SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW OVER QUEBEC
AND HIGH BUILDING SWD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA TO KEEP BL
MIXED WITH 5-10 KT WINDS. COLDEST PERIOD WITH GREATEST FROST AND FREEZE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE TUE NGT-EARLY WED AM WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
IN ALLOWING FOR BL DECOUPLING. MIN TEMP TECHNIQUE USING PROGGED 850
MILLIBAR TEMPS AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
MID AND UPPER 20S FOR LOWS EARLY WED AM... AND IF WINDS WERE TO GO CALM
FOR ANY DURATION THEN LOWER 20S WOULD BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY SHELTERED AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.
CHALLENGE LATE WEEK IS PCPN CHCS/TIMING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE FROM PACIFIC
TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL CONUS... WITH MAIN ISSUE OF TIMING. GFS REMAINS
FASTER AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL RUNS VIA DPROG/DT... AND
WOULD SUPPORT RAIN OVERSPREADING REGION THURS IN WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MEANWHILE... HI-RES ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER PAST FEW RUNS AS IT IS
STRONGER WITH DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR WHICH HOLDS PCPN
AT BAY TO OUR WEST UNTIL FRI. UKMET IS CLOSER TO GFS AT 144 HRS WHICH
AGREES WITH INHERITED FCST AND ALSO INITIALIZED POP GRIDS WITH POPS (SLIGHT
CHC-CHC) SHOWN TO OVERSPREAD CWA THURS AND LINGER INTO FRI. WOULDNT RULE
OUT SOME SLOWING OF SYSTEM THOUGH DUE TO DRY EASTERLY FETCH FROM BENEATH
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. MCCLURE
AVIATION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012/
VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/07 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOIS FROM IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN WITH
SCATTERED -SHRA FROM MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES 4-10K AGL. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL DOES
EXIST FOR A PERIOD OF HIGHER END MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 06Z/08 AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH MODERATE NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND GUSTY. ..NICHOLS..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1046 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING. MSAS IS SHOWING 3 TO 5 MB PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE IS WINDS JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE
WINDS WILL GET STRONGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS IN THE GRIDS AND ISSUE A NOW TO ALERT DRIVERS
OF BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
TODAY:
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS WIND SPEED STRENGTH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE OF THE LATEST RUC13 AND
NAM12 SOLUTIONS...SHOULD BE SEEING 23 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND
ISALLOBARIC/PRESSURE RISES. THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES. AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...NOTHING
WAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HAVE
INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CIRRUS THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT:
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL CLEARLY BE TEMPERATURES. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ANTICIPATED. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS LINE...CLEAR SKIES...AND WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL DOWN INTO THE 32 TO 35F RANGE WITH EASE...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY TO GET
THE WORD OUT FOR AGRICULTURE/NURSERY INTERESTS GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY
EARLY GREEN-UP WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR. SKIN TEMPERATURES COULD GET
DOWN TO 30 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS NORTHWEST OF A HUGOTON-GARDEN
CITY-WAKEENEY LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL COMMENCE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS BY MONDAY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP SUNDAY NIGHT BY CLOUDS AND THEN HELD
DOWN ON MONDAY BY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN. BY TUESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH DEEP
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BY TUESDAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS LOW TO
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, ALONG WITH LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE
GIVEN A STABLY STRATIFIED LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
BY WEDNESDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER
THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW FOR LOW-LEVEL WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION. OTHERWISE, THE
STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES,
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL RELOAD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSE BY, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE. IN
FACT, THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL ALL BE NEARLY IDEAL FOR OUTBREAKS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE, GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL A
WEEK AWAY, IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE IN THE PLAINS THE
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE CONCENTRATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
EVEN DURING THE PERIODS WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS ARE SUPPRESSED TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD
BE HELD UP FOR THE SAME REASONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. CIGS AOA
050 WILL BECOME UNLIMITED AFTER 14Z AT DDC/GCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 34 71 50 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 63 33 71 47 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 63 34 72 50 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 65 35 71 52 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 64 35 71 45 / 10 0 0 0
P28 68 39 69 50 / 20 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1036 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING. MSAS IS SHOWING 3 TO 5 MB PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE IS WINDS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE
WINDS WILL GET STRONGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS IN THE GRIDS AND ISSUE A NOW TO ALERT DRIVERS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
TODAY:
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS WIND SPEED STRENGTH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE OF THE LATEST RUC13 AND
NAM12 SOLUTIONS...SHOULD BE SEEING 23 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND
ISALLOBARIC/PRESSURE RISES. THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES. AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...NOTHING
WAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HAVE
INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CIRRUS THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT:
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL CLEARLY BE TEMPERATURES. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ANTICIPATED. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS LINE...CLEAR SKIES...AND WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL DOWN INTO THE 32 TO 35F RANGE WITH EASE...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY TO GET
THE WORD OUT FOR AGRICULTURE/NURSERY INTERESTS GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY
EARLY GREEN-UP WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR. SKIN TEMPERATURES COULD GET
DOWN TO 30 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS NORTHWEST OF A HUGOTON-GARDEN
CITY-WAKEENEY LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL COMMENCE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS BY MONDAY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP SUNDAY NIGHT BY CLOUDS AND THEN HELD
DOWN ON MONDAY BY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN. BY TUESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH DEEP
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BY TUESDAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS LOW TO
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, ALONG WITH LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE
GIVEN A STABLY STRATIFIED LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
BY WEDNESDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER
THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW FOR LOW-LEVEL WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION. OTHERWISE, THE
STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES,
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL RELOAD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSE BY, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE. IN
FACT, THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL ALL BE NEARLY IDEAL FOR OUTBREAKS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE, GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL A
WEEK AWAY, IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE IN THE PLAINS THE
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE CONCENTRATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
EVEN DURING THE PERIODS WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS ARE SUPPRESSED TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD
BE HELD UP FOR THE SAME REASONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. CIGS AOA
050 WILL BECOME UNLIMITED AFTER 14Z AT DDC/GCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 34 71 50 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 63 33 71 47 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 63 34 72 50 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 65 35 71 52 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 64 35 71 45 / 10 0 0 0
P28 68 39 69 50 / 20 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
649 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
A FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN DAKOTAS PER WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS AS OF
07Z. THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE TIED TO THIS STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. AS 0730Z THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR TRIBUNE NORTHEAST THROUGH WAKEENEY TO NEAR
CONCORDIA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINED UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE
TIME OF DAY GIVEN EARLY APRIL STANDARDS WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID
50S STILL BEING OBSERVED AS OF 07Z. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRIFORM) PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES
RATHER WARM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF
THIS CIRRIFORM CLOUD WAS ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
TODAY:
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS WIND SPEED STRENGTH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE OF THE LATEST RUC13 AND
NAM12 SOLUTIONS...SHOULD BE SEEING 23 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND
ISALLOBARIC/PRESSURE RISES. THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES. AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...NOTHING
WAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HAVE
INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CIRRUS THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT:
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL CLEARLY BE TEMPERATURES. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ANTICIPATED. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS LINE...CLEAR SKIES...AND WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL DOWN INTO THE 32 TO 35F RANGE WITH EASE...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY TO GET
THE WORD OUT FOR AGRICULTURE/NURSERY INTERESTS GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY
EARLY GREEN-UP WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR. SKIN TEMPERATURES COULD GET
DOWN TO 30 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS NORTHWEST OF A HUGOTON-GARDEN
CITY-WAKEENEY LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL COMMENCE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS BY MONDAY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP SUNDAY NIGHT BY CLOUDS AND THEN HELD
DOWN ON MONDAY BY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN. BY TUESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH DEEP
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BY TUESDAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS LOW TO
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, ALONG WITH LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE
GIVEN A STABLY STRATIFIED LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
BY WEDNESDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER
THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW FOR LOW-LEVEL WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION. OTHERWISE, THE
STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES,
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL RELOAD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSE BY, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE. IN
FACT, THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL ALL BE NEARLY IDEAL FOR OUTBREAKS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE, GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL A
WEEK AWAY, IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE IN THE PLAINS THE
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE CONCENTRATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
EVEN DURING THE PERIODS WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS ARE SUPPRESSED TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD
BE HELD UP FOR THE SAME REASONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. CIGS AOA
050 WILL BECOME UNLIMITED AFTER 14Z AT DDC/GCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 34 71 50 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 63 33 71 47 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 63 34 72 50 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 65 35 71 52 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 64 35 71 45 / 10 0 0 0
P28 68 39 69 50 / 20 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
937 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT STILL HANGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...STRETCHING
FROM JUST SOUTH OF WOODWARD NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR WICHITA. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WHICH...COMBINED
WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...MAKES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
PROBLEMATIC. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MORE IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE RAW NAM/GFS DEPICT...AS WELL AS THE LATEST RUC DATA.
ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER TO THE
NORTHWEST OF TULSA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY TO THE EAST...AND
WILL LIKELY ONLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING...THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE POPS WAS TRIMMED FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOCAL
WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 AND PROBABLY AFTER 00Z. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...AS
WELL AS THE LOCATION OF UPPER FORCING...SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MORNING CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NE OK SITES WILL PEAK IN
COVERAGE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN AR AND
SE OK SITES SEEING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT THUS PROB30 MENTION. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT WITHIN BRIEF HEAVIER PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT WILL WORK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LAST
EVENING HAVE HELD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES EASTWARD. ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY BECAME
SEVERE OVERNIGHT AND IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY... THUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS.
AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WITH MORE SURFACE
HEATING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY... STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY WASHING OUT... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK... WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED IN THE MODELS TO APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AND INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS
TO BECOME QUITE ACTIVE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1102 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TIMING HAS BEED SLOWED IN THE GRIDS. CENTRAL
ARKANSAS SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE ON TRACK AND LEFT MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AS
IS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/
AVIATION...
CONVECTION ONGOING IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. RAPID
REFRESH RUC DATA IS HANDLING THIS PRETTY WELL AND DEPICTS A NE-SW
ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEV LOPING LATER THIS
MORNING AND MOVING INTO NW ARKANSAS. GIVEN SPARSE NATURE OF
CURRENT STORMS...DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDER...BUT RATHER JUST VCTS WITH BKN060CB AS PREVAILING
CLOUD/WX COMBO. ALSO DID THIS AT KBPK...OFFSET AN HOUR OR SO. MAIN
BATCH OF CONVECTION EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND PRECIP
ALONG THE FRONT DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING. LIMITED
MENTION OF VCTS TO THE NORTHERN SITES...AND LEFT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SITES VFR WITH ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS AFTER 00Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNLESS SHOWERS MOVE OVER
TERMINAL...IN WHICH CASE MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/
SHORT RANGE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
NOT MANY VALUE ADDED CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING
AS ALL SHORT TERM MODELS GENERALLY ON THE SAME PAGE. SINCE I AM NOT
SEEING ANY COMPELLING REASON TO FAVOR ONE MODEL VERSUS ANOTHER...THE
EVER POPULAR BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.
SURFACE ANALYSIS CENTERS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES THE AXIS OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE. BOTH FEATURES EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWING
DOWN AS IT RUNS INTO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ALONG THE EASTERN
GULF COAST. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF TEXAS AND
INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH UPPER PATTERN SHARPENING UP CONSIDERABLY WITH EXPANSIVE
RIDGING GETTING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WE BEGIN WITH
UPPER TROUGHS OFF THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. LATE
WED ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THERE IS A NOTABLE
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE FINE DETAILS...MAINLY WITH WHERE THE
MODELS TAKE THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOC SFC LOW. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN TAKE THE ENERGY INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHERE AS THE
EUROPEAN BRINGS IT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PUSHES A SFC LOW
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO ARKANSAS. DUE TO THE LACK OF
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS I DID NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH AT ALL.
BUT IN GENERAL IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS...AND SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN DURING THE LONG
TERM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 71 54 72 53 / 10 20 20 10
CAMDEN AR 77 57 76 57 / 10 30 40 20
HARRISON AR 71 53 70 52 / 20 30 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 57 74 56 / 20 30 40 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 56 74 55 / 10 20 30 20
MONTICELLO AR 78 56 77 56 / 10 20 30 20
MOUNT IDA AR 75 57 73 56 / 20 30 40 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 53 71 51 / 20 20 20 10
NEWPORT AR 72 55 72 54 / 10 20 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 76 56 75 56 / 10 20 30 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 55 72 54 / 20 30 30 20
SEARCY AR 73 55 73 54 / 10 20 20 10
STUTTGART AR 74 56 74 56 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1023 AM PDT SAT APR 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL WARMING TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OUR FINAL MORNING TEMPERATURE REPORT ISN`T AVAILABLE YET BUT A
CURSORY VIEW SHOWS SEVERAL EAST VALLEY SPOTS FELL BELOW THE 32
DEGREE MARK THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY TODAY WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTH VALLEY.
THE LATEST RUC SOUNDING SHOWS FAIRLY ROBUST DOWNSLOPING AT KBFL
TODAY. OUR CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MAX
TEMP FORECAST SO NOW CHANGES EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
OUR ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEMS LATER THIS
WEEK. BOTH FEATURE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ALTHOUGH THE FIRST
STORM...SLATED FOR TUE NGT INTO WED...IS FILLING IN AS IT
APPROACHES INTERIOR CALIFORNIA. WILL BE CONSIDERING OUR POPS AND
TIMING FOR THESE STORMS ALONG WITH THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM PDT SAT APR 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY RUNNING A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER THAN 24 HRS AGO...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING DRY AND COOL
AIR IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING AGAIN
IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE
COOL START TO THE MORNING...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM TO AS MUCH AS 6-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
MONDAY.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SWINGING THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
INLAND BEGINNING TUESDAY...BEGINNING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN AND
SPREADING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA....MAINLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY NOTABLE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN
IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT...PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM ASHORE AND BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...SANGER
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1258 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND JUST UPDATING FOR CLOUDS MOVING
IN A BIT QUICKER FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF I-55.
MILDER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ON EASTER
SUNDAY. BREEZY SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH OVER
CENTRAL IL AND LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS OF 7 TO 14 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST IL.
1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO AND LAKE HURON WAS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OF IL WHILE 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG CANADA HAD A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER WESTERN
IA AND EASTERN KS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE WEST OF
IL AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND DIMINISHING DURING THE MORNING
WITH LOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. 12Z MODELS BRING COLD FRONT EAST
INTO FAR WESTERN IL BY 00Z/7 PM AND INTO EASTERN IL BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL DURING THIS EVENING.
HUETTL
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
VFR CONDTIONS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
TERMINAL AIRPORTS THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL
MN INTO WESTERN IA...NW MO AND SE KS WILL APPROACH THE IL RIVER BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO EASTERN IL BY MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER CENTRAL
IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
THIS FAR NORTH SO SHOWER COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS
LIMITED TOO. WILL CONTINUE VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR ABOUT A FOUR HOUR
WINDOW WITH CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO 3-4K FT. CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO WORK ITS WAY EAST OVER CENTRAL IL DURING
OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN SW...AND THEN TURN NW
8-13 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE
MO VALLEY BY 18Z/SUNDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO CENTRAL IL
EASTERN SUNDAY.
HUETTL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST SLOWLY THIS MORNING...AND WINDS
STARTING TO GET A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT EARLY AFTER AN EVENING OF
RATHER LIGHT TO CALM WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEXT WAVE BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT AND THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WILL BE THE
FIRST ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST. BEYOND THAT...FORECAST IS RATHER QUIET
AND A MATTER OF TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST UNTIL LATE DAY 6. 00Z MODEL
RUNS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THRU WEDNESDAY...HINTING AT MORE
OF A CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPING UP TODAY AND USHERING IN SOME WARMER AIR
AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...AT LEAST BRIEFLY. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER WAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR AND 4KM WRF STILL HINTING AT A BIT OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...ALTHOUGH BREAKING UP AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BEST CHANCES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FRONT PROVES TO BE MORE OF A WIND SHIFT AND
A PRECIP CHANCE THAN AN ACTUAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR...AS TOMORROWS
HIGHS LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS...NOT A BIG AIRMASS CHANGE AT
ALL.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND A BIT COOLER AS THE COOLER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE ACTUALLY ARRIVES. REGION REMAINS
UNDER A NWRLY FLOW...WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING IN
THE PLAINS STATES. BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
LATE THURSDAY-FRI NIGHT IS A BIT OF CONUNDRUM FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE MODELS...AND DISCREPANCIES BTWN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF IS
RESULTING IN A SPREAD OUT TIME FRAME FOR POPS IN THE ALLBLEND. HAVE
TRIED TO BE CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT UNTIL ONE OR BOTH OF THE MODELS
CLEANS UP A BIT. FOR NOW...CHC POPS THUR NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT.
EXPECT A FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS POINT WITH THE PATTERN
SHIFT WORKING OUT A FEW KINKS.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1143 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE DOMINANT VFR CATEGORY. VISIBILITY AND CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY GOOD THROUGH TOMORROW. THE OPAQUE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 TO 8000 FT AGL...WILL BECOME CLEAR AND REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH TOMORROW BEGINNING AROUND 02Z. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY TODAY...SUSTAINED AROUND 12 KTS...GUSTING TO NEAR 20 AT
TIMES...TONIGHT...A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KTS IS
EXPECTED. TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KTS
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ..ERVIN..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS BEING PUSHED
EASTWARD BY A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
RESULTING IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NE. LOW CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WESTERN IOWA.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
00Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
SWEEPING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED TO REACH .75-1.00 INCH
THIS AFTERNOON...A LACK OF FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT QPF. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...AND LITTLE IF ANY CAPE IS AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDER. TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT MAXES TO THE EAST SHOULD REACH NEAR
YESTERDAY`S READINGS.
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AS WILL THE
CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 30S...BUT NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP DURING THE NIGHT AND LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FROST
WILL BE AN ISSUE...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. WOLF
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
FROST/FREEZE RISK FOR POSSIBLY SEVERAL LATE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS
EARLY TO MID WEEK REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OVERALL... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES BETWEEN DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
QUEBEC. TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD AND BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK
WITH SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. COUPLE OF DEEP MIXING DAYS
(ROUGHLY 700-775 MILLIBARS) SUN-MON DEPICTED BY GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTS HIGHS NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE... A TREND
OF LATE. WINDS MAY NEED TO BUMPED UP A BIT AS WELL BOTH DAYS WITH
AT LEAST BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY 20-25 KTS
SHOWN THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AND 30-35+ KTS SITTING ATOP. ADJUSTED
DEWPTS DOWN ESPECIALLY BOTH AFTNS IN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD 20S WITH POSSIBLY FEW TEENS. DRY AIR WILL
ALSO AID IN WIDENING DIURNAL RANGE... WITH NEAR TO JUST BELOW COLDEST
GUIDANCE ON LOWS. SOME FROST POSSIBLE LATE MON NGT-EARLY TUE AM... BUT
LIKELY PATCHY AT BEST AND MAINLY IN SHELTERED OR LOW-LYING LOCATIONS AS
MODELS STILL SHOWING SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW OVER QUEBEC
AND HIGH BUILDING SWD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA TO KEEP BL
MIXED WITH 5-10 KT WINDS. COLDEST PERIOD WITH GREATEST FROST AND FREEZE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE TUE NGT-EARLY WED AM WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
IN ALLOWING FOR BL DECOUPLING. MIN TEMP TECHNIQUE USING PROGGED 850
MILLIBAR TEMPS AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
MID AND UPPER 20S FOR LOWS EARLY WED AM... AND IF WINDS WERE TO GO CALM
FOR ANY DURATION THEN LOWER 20S WOULD BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY SHELTERED AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.
CHALLENGE LATE WEEK IS PCPN CHCS/TIMING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE FROM PACIFIC
TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL CONUS... WITH MAIN ISSUE OF TIMING. GFS REMAINS
FASTER AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL RUNS VIA DPROG/DT... AND
WOULD SUPPORT RAIN OVERSPREADING REGION THURS IN WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MEANWHILE... HI-RES ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER PAST FEW RUNS AS IT IS
STRONGER WITH DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR WHICH HOLDS PCPN
AT BAY TO OUR WEST UNTIL FRI. UKMET IS CLOSER TO GFS AT 144 HRS WHICH
AGREES WITH INHERITED FCST AND ALSO INITIALIZED POP GRIDS WITH POPS (SLIGHT
CHC-CHC) SHOWN TO OVERSPREAD CWA THURS AND LINGER INTO FRI. WOULDNT RULE
OUT SOME SLOWING OF SYSTEM THOUGH DUE TO DRY EASTERLY FETCH FROM BENEATH
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. MCCLURE
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 18Z TAFS...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING. MSAS IS SHOWING 3 TO 5 MB PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE IS WINDS JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE
WINDS WILL GET STRONGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS IN THE GRIDS AND ISSUE A NOW TO ALERT DRIVERS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
TODAY:
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS WIND SPEED STRENGTH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE OF THE LATEST RUC13 AND
NAM12 SOLUTIONS...SHOULD BE SEEING 23 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND
ISALLOBARIC/PRESSURE RISES. THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES. AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...NOTHING
WAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HAVE
INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CIRRUS THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT:
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL CLEARLY BE TEMPERATURES. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ANTICIPATED. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS LINE...CLEAR SKIES...AND WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL DOWN INTO THE 32 TO 35F RANGE WITH EASE...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY TO GET
THE WORD OUT FOR AGRICULTURE/NURSERY INTERESTS GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY
EARLY GREEN-UP WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR. SKIN TEMPERATURES COULD GET
DOWN TO 30 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS NORTHWEST OF A HUGOTON-GARDEN
CITY-WAKEENEY LINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL COMMENCE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS BY MONDAY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP SUNDAY NIGHT BY CLOUDS AND THEN HELD
DOWN ON MONDAY BY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN. BY TUESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH DEEP
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BY TUESDAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS LOW TO
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, ALONG WITH LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE
GIVEN A STABLY STRATIFIED LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
BY WEDNESDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER
THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW FOR LOW-LEVEL WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION. OTHERWISE, THE
STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES,
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL RELOAD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSE BY, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE. IN
FACT, THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL ALL BE NEARLY IDEAL FOR OUTBREAKS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE, GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL A
WEEK AWAY, IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE IN THE PLAINS THE
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE CONCENTRATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
EVEN DURING THE PERIODS WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS ARE SUPPRESSED TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD
BE HELD UP FOR THE SAME REASONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BUT
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 12 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS. VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM CLOUDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 34 71 50 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 63 33 71 47 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 63 34 72 50 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 65 35 71 52 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 64 35 71 45 / 10 0 0 0
P28 68 39 69 50 / 20 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
WEST AND SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. CURRENTLY A LARGE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH OUR CWA ON THE WESTERN FRINGES. RUC ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WERE INHIBITING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
OVER OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT. OUR DRY AIRMASS
WITH A PW OF A HALF INCH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING LEADING
TO TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR NORMAL AROUND 50 DEGREES AT MOST
SITES. SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A CYCLONE SPINNING
OVER MANITOBA WILL HELP DROP A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE MORNING AND INTO OUR CWA BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME CONVECTION NOTED ALONG IT. MODELS AGREE THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS OUR
CWA. MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PWS BARELY POOLING TO AN INCH. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP
OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS
AGREE THAT MOST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THE WEST WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN. WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE DELTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 1023MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE COOLER TREND OF NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...COOL SPOT BEING THE NE WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/UKMET SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
COMBINE FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THE NAM AND ECMWF
PLACE THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND SHOW NO DEVELOPMENT.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SO FOR
NOW HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MONDAY AFTN AND FOLLOW A DRIER TREND. ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER IN THE
WEST MAY HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST BUT
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. /22/
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY...THIS TIME ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL MOISTURE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FORCING IS INDICATED
AS HIGHER PRESSURE AND NLY FLOW CONTINUE AT LOWER LEVELS BUT THE
REMNANTS OF A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE SUGGESTED. ONCE AGAIN
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
WRN/SRN ZONES.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE DURING THE DAY WED BUT WITH
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE EURO...BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY RIDGING A BIT
OVER THE AREA WED...HAVE CUT MEX MOS POPS FOR TUE NGT...WED AND WED
NIGHT TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
MODEL RUN TO RUN DISCREPANCIES STAND OUT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
PERIOD. BY THU THE GFS GENERALLY MAINTAINS MID/UPPER RIDGING WITH
POSSIBLE WAVES PUSHING THROUGH AS LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PREV RUN OF
THE EURO EDGED A HEALTHY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION THU WITH A STRONG SYSTEM APPROACHING THE ARKLAMISS REGION
FRIDAY. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE EURO HOWEVER HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
THE GFS SOLUTION...MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES BUT HOLDING ON TO
RIDGING OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND PIVOTING THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO
OUR NW. WILL FOLLOW MEX MOS FOR NOW WHICH PAINTS AREAS OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /03/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME SHALLOW GROUND
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE AERODROME AROUND DAY BREAK
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY RESULTING IN A
DEGRADATION OF FLIGHT CATEGORY ISN`T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 53 80 55 78 / 0 8 13 13
MERIDIAN 47 79 52 79 / 0 5 13 9
VICKSBURG 52 79 55 79 / 0 12 13 14
HATTIESBURG 53 82 58 80 / 0 4 9 18
NATCHEZ 53 80 56 78 / 0 9 13 25
GREENVILLE 53 78 53 78 / 5 17 13 8
GREENWOOD 51 79 51 77 / 0 12 13 6
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
22/03/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
305 PM MDT SAT APR 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LINGERING UPPER TROUGHING AND ACCOMPANYING SOMEWHAT MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER NE MT. THIS BEHIND THE MAIN PART OF
THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...MAINLY IN OUR NW...AS QUITE
A BIT OF SUNSHINE TODAY INCREASED INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD END BY SUNSET. HRRR MODEL SHOWING THESE TO REMAIN ISOLATED
UNTIL THEN.
WITH LOSS OF HOOKUP WINDS THIS EVENING...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL EXPIRE BY 9 PM. IN LOOKING AT FOG POSSIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SNOWCOVERED AREAS...APPEARS ENOUGH WIND AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING. AND MODELS ARE QUITE DRY WITH TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS...AND SO LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 20S ALL AREAS.
UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW INTENSIFYING AND MOVING
SLOWLY E IN THE E PACIFIC...WHICH STARTS BUILDING A RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES THE NEXT 2 DAYS. MULTI-CENTERED SURFACE HIGH
STRETCHES FROM WY NW THRU W MT INTO BC TODAY AND SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS SUNDAY. WINDS
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ARE 20-30KT AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...SO
MIXING DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTER SUNDAY.
WHILE WARMING ALOFT WITH UPPER RIDGING MONDAY...MODIFIED ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH OVER N CANADA TO COUNTERACT THIS AS IT SUPPLIES SOME
LOWER-LEVEL COOLER AIR TO NE MT AS THE HIGH INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
S. THIS TURNS WINDS N TO E. THUS JUST A LITTLE WARMING MONDAY
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. SIMONSEN
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOR LONG TERM UPDATE...ADDED SOME THUNDER FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. EC AND GFS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR CENTRAL MT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS MODEL SHOWS INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH
COULD GIVE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM GIVES INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIODS. MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH DRY AND
WARM WEATHER EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MAIN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE
RESULT OF LONG WAVE TROF OFF THE WEST COAST EJECTING A SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW
TO HANDLE THIS WAVE ALTHOUGH THE 0Z RUNS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
LIFTING IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORTHEAST
MONTANA FROM THURSDAY TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT DIFFERING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GFS IS THE SLOWEST OF
THE BUNCH AS IT WINDS UP A CLOSED LOW OVER MONTANA...WHICH IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY ANY ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. A SECOND WAVE PUSHES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
THE MAIN ISSUE BEING TIMING OF WIND CHANGES. WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT SDY AND GDV. WINDS SHOULD DECLINE
TONIGHT BUT PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AT 7000 FT FROM CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
MARTIN
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FOR FORT PECK
LAKE IN THE FORT PECK LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1221 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING TSRA AFFECTING NE OK TERMINALS...AND
EVENTUALLY THE NW AR TERMINALS. HAVE CARRIED SOME MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE OUTSET AT BVO/TUL/RVS/XNA...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BENEATH ANY TSRA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD AFFECT FSM AND MLC. WIND SHIFT
WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT ALL SITES AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. N TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT STILL HANGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...STRETCHING
FROM JUST SOUTH OF WOODWARD NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR WICHITA. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WHICH...COMBINED
WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...MAKES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
PROBLEMATIC. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MORE IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE RAW NAM/GFS DEPICT...AS WELL AS THE LATEST RUC DATA.
ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER TO THE
NORTHWEST OF TULSA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY TO THE EAST...AND
WILL LIKELY ONLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING...THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE POPS WAS TRIMMED FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOCAL
WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 AND PROBABLY AFTER 00Z. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...AS
WELL AS THE LOCATION OF UPPER FORCING...SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MORNING CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NE OK SITES WILL PEAK IN
COVERAGE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN AR AND
SE OK SITES SEEING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT THUS PROB30 MENTION. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT WITHIN BRIEF HEAVIER PRECIP. COLD FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT WILL WORK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012/
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LAST
EVENING HAVE HELD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES EASTWARD. ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY BECAME
SEVERE OVERNIGHT AND IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY... THUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS.
AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WITH MORE SURFACE
HEATING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY... STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY WASHING OUT... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK... WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED IN THE MODELS TO APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AND INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS
TO BECOME QUITE ACTIVE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CONDITIONS FOR EASTER
SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TAP GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ARE
PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A CORRIDOR BETWEEN A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH MANITOBA. 07.18Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IF
ANY 0-3KM MUCAPE PRESENT WITH NO UPWARD TREND EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MEANS THAT THE
SHOWERS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER DEVELOP. THIS COLD FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND END THE THREAT OF
THESE SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS WELL WITH ANY POST-
FRONTAL CUMULUS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT DISSIPATING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO EASTER SUNDAY AND WHAT KIND OF CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW
TONIGHT WITH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING BACK IN AS A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WHICH WILL CREATE STEEP SURFACE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
07.12Z NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS
BEING DRY ADIABATIC FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700MB BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM SITES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MAIN
QUESTION BEING HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BE FOR WINDS AND DEW
POINTS. DESPITE THE WELL MIXED PROFILE ENCOURAGES SOME GUSTINESS
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY
WEAK. 07.12Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER UP TO
AROUND 900MB WITH WINDS THERE BETWEEN 20 TO 30KTS. WITH NOT MUCH
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...THINKING THAT WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THIS 20
TO 30KT RANGE AND NOT TAP INTO THE HIGHER WINDS FURTHER ALOFT AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO MIX OUT AS
WELL...BUT AGAIN IT MAINLY DEPENDS ON HOW DEEP WE ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO. THIS COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO A DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER DAY TOMORROW TO WHERE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. FOR MORE
DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS AFD.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TOMORROW IS WITH SHOWER CHANCES AS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. 500-300MB PV ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON RIGHT AS PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING LEADS TO THE DEEP MIXING. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO
LEAD TO SOME COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WHICH IN TURN DEVELOPS
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY. IF THIS INSTABILITY WOULD
BE A LITTLE HIGHER THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A THREAT FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS VERY MARGINAL
TO EVEN GET LIGHTNING. THUS...WILL NOT BE MENTIONING IN THE HWO
OR OTHER PRODUCTS. AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT COME THROUGH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR.
A COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SECOND COLD
FRONT AS THE TROUGH STALLS OUT OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FORCING FROM THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES FOR MONDAY...SO
HAVE KEPT THEM DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE NEED FOR FREEZE WARNINGS STARTING
TUESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE FOR A HARD
FREEZE ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
WITH THE STACKED LOW SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AS
WELL WITH THE CORE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD
SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS LIKELY AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. THUS...THE NEED WILL BE THERE FOR ADDITIONAL
FREEZE WARNINGS WITH THE EARLY VEGETATION GROWTH THIS SPRING.
BEYOND THIS THE MAIN FEATURE IS WITH THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING
THAT TAKES SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS...DIFFERENCES
ARISE BETWEEN THE 07.12Z GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARD TO WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS HAD BEEN THE
FASTER MODEL THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH BRINGING THIS PRECIPITATION
IN...BUT NOW THE ECMWF HAS JUMPED IT AND IS NOW THE FAST ONE WITH
RAIN GETTING IN THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE ALL RAIN AS IT COMES IN AS WELL...SO HAVE
DROPPED THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FROM THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1245 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE MVFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
METARS SHOW COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN
IOWA WITH CEILING HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 1000 FEET TO 3000 FEET. WITH
A FEW METARS REPORTING CEILINGS AS LOW AS 800 FEET. EXPECT CEILINGS
TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 2500 FEET AT LSE BY 20Z SATURDAY.
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT RST THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY LOWER TO 800 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CAN BE EXPECTED AT
BOTH TAF SITES DROPPING THE VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND BE SUSTAINED AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
AND GUST UP TO 20 TO 28 KNOTS AT BOTH RST AND LSE THROUGH 23Z
SATURDAY. FOR THIS EVENING...A DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
AND WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIE DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND
SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN
EFFECT FROM 1 PM THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
321 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012
WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...DTJ
FIRE WEATHER...DAS