Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/03/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
857 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
.UPDATE...
WILL ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE AS ONLY AREA EXCEEDING 50
KNOT GUSTS THE PAST 2 HOURS HAS BEEN HERE AT KPUB...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME 40-45 KNOT
GUSTS OVER EASTERN EL PASO AND NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTIES STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH 05Z...AND PERHAPS SOME BRIEF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
WINDS TO AROUND 45 KNOTS ACROSS PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES FROM
TSRA IN KS.
PRECIP A LITTLE SLOW TO GET GOING THIS EVENING WITH DRY SURFACE
LAYER OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND DEEPEST LIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWNWARD MANY AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH THIS
UPDATE..ESPECIALLY KPUB/KCOS. 00Z NAM RAMPS UP PRECIP AFTER 06Z AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES WESTWARD...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING WELL INTO TUES NIGHT. NAM
00Z QPF INDICATES LIQUID AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES/WETS AND I-25 CORRIDOR FROM
PUEBLO SOUTHWARD...WHICH SUGGESTS FORECASTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOK ON TRACK. KCOS/KPUB/CANON CITY PRECIP
AMOUNTS STILL TRICKY WITH USUAL PRECIP MINIMUM NEARBY...THOUGH
STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES. OVERALL TREND OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. --PETERSEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
..STRONG SPRING STORM TAKING AIM ON SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...
MODELS IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL DETAILS OF CLOSED
UPPER LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SHIFTING EASTWARD THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE BY TUES AFTERNOON. FRONT HAS
ALREADY SLAMMED THROUGH EASTERN CO EARLIER TODAY...WITH PEAK GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY. HRRR AND
LOCAL 4 KM WRF INDICATED TWO PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS...ONE THIS
MORNING...AND ANOTHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. JUST
PICKED UP A GUST TO 50 KTS AT KPUB AIRPORT AROUND 230 PM...SO
PERHAPS THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND WARNINGS THROUGH 03Z.
INTERESTINGLY...HRRR SUGGESTS CORE OF STRONGER WINDS MAY EXPAND
ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z...HOWEVER WITH TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY PAST...WILL
LEAVE CURRENT EXPIRATION AT 03Z AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THE
TRENDS TO DECIDE IF EXTENSION IN TIME...OR EXPANSION IN AREA IS
NECESSARY. LOCAL 4 KM WRF BACKED OFF SOME ON WIND GUSTS AFTER 03Z
FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN
FOR HIGH WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AS WINDS ACCELERATE THROUGH THE PASSES IN THE SANGRES AND
SPILLS INTO THE VALLEY. HRRR AND 12Z 4KM WRF STILL PAINT THIS
SCENARIO IN THE LATEST RUNS...WITH PEAK WINDS OCCURRING NOW THROUGH
00Z...WITH GUSTS STARTING TO TAIL OFF BY 03Z. ALS HAD A WIND GUST
TO 54 MPH AFTER NOON...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE. SUSPECT LOCAL AREAS TO
THE WEST HAD HIGHER GUSTS. AGAIN...WRF KEEPS GUSTS UP AROUND 70 MPH
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE TAILING OFF...SO CURRENT HIGHLIGHT LOOKS ON
TARGET.
FIRST LOBE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED LOW INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING. SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SANGRES/WETS...THOUGH ITS BEEN PRETTY
LIGHT SO FAR AS MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW. HOWEVER...RADARS TO
THE SOUTH SHOW ECHOES EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WITH SOME
EMBEDDED CONVECTION EVIDENT VIA LIGHTNING STRIKES. SHOULD SEE THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SNOW
SPREADING NORTHWARD AND RAMPING UP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AREA AFTER
03-06Z. NICE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EVIDENT IN BOTH NAM AND GFS ON THE
300K SFC...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEAVY QPF AMOUNTS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF
AROUND 7000 FEET...BUT DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT. TIMING
OF THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND THE RESIDUAL WARMTH OF THE GROUND
WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR SUCH AS SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AND IMPRESSIVE TROWAL
ALOFT EXPECTED TO OVERWHELM DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PALMER AT LEAST
THROUGH THE 06Z TO 15Z WINDOW...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING
COLORADO SPRINGS AND PUEBLO. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT A
WIDE RANGE WITH SOME MELTING OFF ROAD SURFACES AT TIMES...BUT
ANYWHERE FROM 2 INCHES ON THE GRASS...TO AROUND 6 INCHES NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. WITH A PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
FUNNELING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND UPSLOPING ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LA GARITAS/AND EASTERN SAN JUANS...WILL INCLUDE THESE AREAS
IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND RUN IT THROUGH 00Z. BIGGEST WINNER
IN THIS EVENT WILL BE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND WETS 40 TO
50 KTS OF NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FEET OF
SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ( UP TO 30 INCHES) ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE. TROWAL
EVENTUALLY PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW WINDING
DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. -KT
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)
..TIMING AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL STORM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE
SE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE SE PLAINS CONTINUE AND
HAVE TAILORED FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM AND EC WHICH HAVE THE LOW
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AT 00Z WED AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT
IT OUT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. ONGOING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN
MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AND
DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A
COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MTS AND ALONG WITH PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA TUESDAY EVENING
WITH THINGS WINDING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...THOUGH HAVE TAPERED BACK HIGHS A
TAD IN EXPECTED SNOW COVERED AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE
PROGGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. ONE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIP
FALLS. PASSING WAVE SENDS A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE POSSIBLE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BRINGING IN ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. -MW
AVIATION...
IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AS STRONG
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE
30 TO 45 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE AT KCOS AND KPUB BEFORE DECREASING
TOWARDS 06Z. KALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40
KT RANGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF BLDU. HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL IMPACT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 06Z-18Z PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES AT KPUB...TO
AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES AT KCOS. WITH WARM GROUND...THERE WILL BE SOME
MELTING AT TIMES AT KCOS...BUT PAVED SURFACES COULD BECOME SLUSHY
AND SNOWPACKED UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. KALS COULD SEE AN INCH
OR TWO AS WELL. RAIN/SNOW SWITCH OVER WILL OCCUR AROUND 03Z FOR
KCOS AND KALS...AND AROUND 06Z FOR KPUB. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ072>075-
078>080-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ058-
060>063-076-077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY FOR COZ083-085-086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ066>068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ081-082-084.
&&
$$
77/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
REGION PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM...RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
CURRENT HOURLY POPS INDICATE...SO HAVE SHIFTED HOURLY POP/WX GRIDS
AHEAD BY AN HOUR. REST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WAS
UNCHANGED.
****PREVIOUS DISCUSSION****
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS
HAVE COMPLETELY OVERTAKEN THE CWA. MEANWHILE...THE 12 UTC KALY
SOUNDING SHOWS ENOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR THE BOTTOM FEW THOUSAND
FEET OF THE COLUMN...AND BUFR MODEL SOUNDING SUPPORT THIS HOLDING
FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL. THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW NO RETURNS ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN NY/LAKE
ONTARIO DUE TO A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST CLOUDY...BUT DRY
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AROUND NOON.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL STEADILY INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTN HOURS. THE NEW 12 UTC
NAM AND 10 UTC 3KM HRRR ALL SHOW BATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST QPF ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS...AS THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH
QPF SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...ALL AREAS SEEM TO AT LEAST GET A FEW
HUNDREDTHS...SO HIGH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SEEM WARRANTED. MAX
TEMPS TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE EARLY AFTN JUST BEFORE THE
START OF PRECIP...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
SRN DACKS TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
AFTER 00 UTC...WILL START TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DROPPING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AT THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN /GENERALLY 2500 FT AND ABOVE/...ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS COULD START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
TEMPS ALOFT START TO CRASH. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS VERY
LIGHT...OF ABOUT A HALF INCH OR SO...AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
HIGH PEAKS OF THE CATSKILLS AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT. A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. VALLEY AREAS WILL PROBABLY JUST STAY AS RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN ANY
VALLEY AREAS AT THIS TIME.
ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE FINISHED BY AROUND 06 UTC...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AS SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF...WITH MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE 20S IN THE DACKS TO THE MID 30S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT OTHER THAN 6-9
HOURS DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF TUES CDFNT AND INTENSITY OF 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WED.
FAST MOVING FLOW AT 500HPA OVER RGN...AS 500HPA TROF DEPARTS...RIDGE
BUILDS EAST...ANOTHER SHORT WV FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE. AT SFC MASSIVE HIGH BUILDS FM
HUDSONS BAY S INTO GRTLKS AS A SERIES OF STRONG 500HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE SE ACROSS THE RGN. THE MODEL SUITE GENERALLY (GFS/GEM/12UTC
ECMWF) ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORT WAVES...THE NAM THE LEAST AND
THE OUTLIER. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHORT WV SOLUTION RESULTS IN SOME
INSTAB -SHRA/SN AT HIR TRRN...VRBL CLOUDS...BRISK N WINDS AND THIS
SOLUTION IS THE ONE THE FCST WILL LEAN TWRD WITH NAM BEING THROWN
OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THIS PERIOD. 500HPA TROF OVER
MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART...MASSIVE SFC HIGH FM HUDSONS BAY
WILL BUILD INTO GRTLKS. FCA WILL BE BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDS...SOME CLOUDS INTO FRI AS 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
ROTATED ACROSS FCA. BY SAT SFC HIGH HAS MOVED INTO RGN. GFS SHIFTS
500HPA TROF OFFSHORE...ECMWF HAS CUTOFF FORM ALONG DELMARVA/SE
COAST WHILE GFS KEEPS PROGRESSIVE TROFS MOVING OFFSHORE. ECMWF
DEVELOPS POTENTIAL COASTAL SFC LOW THAT DRIFTS N WITH CUTOFF. THIS
SYSTEM BACKS INTO FCA SUN WITH CLDS AN LT RN. FOR NOW WILL GO
W/GMOS SOLUTION. SINCE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS IN DAYS 7-8. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NR NRMLS...REACHING 5 DEGREES ABV BY END OF PD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY ARE
ADVANCING EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES. WITH
DRY AIR IN PLACE AT LOW LEVELS...IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE BIT UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS UP ENOUGH TO REDUCE FLYING CONDITIONS.
WITH SITES CURRENTLY VFR...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTN
FOR VSBYS/CIGS TO BE REDUCED TO MVFR. RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS RAINFALL. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER IN THE EVENING...LINGERING
LONGEST /PERHAPS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT/ NEAR KPOU. AFTERWARD...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO W-NW DIRECTION AND BECOME STRONGER...ABOUT 5-10
KTS. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS...AS LOWER
CLOUDS LIFT TO 4-6 KFT AND BECOME SCT-BKN.
ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST SCT CU AROUND 6
KFT. WITHIN DAYTIME MIXING...N-NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...ESP IN AREAS OF CHANNELED FLOW. SOME GUSTS MAY REACH 20-25
KTS...ESP BY AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
MON PM-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE NT...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA.
WED-THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...THEN A MASSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS
TONIGHT...THE WET WEATHER ALSO SUBSIDES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RANGE
BETWEEN 80 AND 90 PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...BECOMING
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS...THEN INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE
AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
THE ONLY PCPN EXPECTED IN THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE A QUARTER TO THIRD
INCH TODAY...ISOLATED -SHRA LATE TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WILL BE DRY
WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL AT FIRST...RISING NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK AND
ENDING THE WEEK ABV NORMALS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
REGION PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM...RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
CURRENT HOURLY POPS INDICATE...SO HAVE SHIFTED HOURLY POP/WX GRIDS
AHEAD BY AN HOUR. REST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WAS
UNCHANGED.
****PREVIOUS DISCUSSION****
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS
HAVE COMPLETELY OVERTAKEN THE CWA. MEANWHILE...THE 12 UTC KALY
SOUNDING SHOWS ENOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR THE BOTTOM FEW THOUSAND
FEET OF THE COLUMN...AND BUFR MODEL SOUNDING SUPPORT THIS HOLDING
FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL. THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW NO RETURNS ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN NY/LAKE
ONTARIO DUE TO A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST CLOUDY...BUT DRY
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AROUND NOON.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL STEADILY INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTN HOURS. THE NEW 12 UTC
NAM AND 10 UTC 3KM HRRR ALL SHOW BATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST QPF ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS...AS THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. ALTOUGH
QPF SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...ALL AREAS SEEM TO AT LEAST GET A FEW
HUNDREDTHS...SO HIGH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SEEM WARRANTED. MAX
TEMPS TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE EARLY AFTN JUST BEFORE THE
START OF PRECIP...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
SRN DACKS TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
AFTER 00 UTC...WILL START TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...AS MODEL GUIDANCES SHOWS THE BEST FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DROPPING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AT THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN /GENERALLY 2500 FT AND ABOVE/...ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS COULD START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
TEMPS ALOFT START TO CRASH. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS VERY
LIGHT...OF ABOUT A HALF INCH OR SO...AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
HIGH PEAKS OF THE CATSKILLS AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT. A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. VALLEY AREAS WILL PROBABLY JUST STAY AS RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN ANY
VALLEY AREAS AT THIS TIME.
ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE FINISHED BY AROUND 06 UTC...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AS SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF...WITH MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE 20S IN THE DACKS TO THE MID 30S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT OTHER THAN 6-9
HOURS DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF TUES CDFNT AND INTENSITY OF 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WED.
FAST MOVING FLOW AT 500HPA OVER RGN...AS 500HPA TROF DEPARTS...RIDGE
BUILDS EAST...ANOTHER SHORT WV FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE. AT SFC MASSIVE HIGH BUILDS FM
HUDSONS BAY S INTO GRTLKS AS A SERIES OF STRONG 500HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE SE ACROSS THE RGN. THE MODEL SUITE GENERALLY (GFS/GEM/12UTC
ECMWF) ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORT WAVES...THE NAM THE LEAST AND
THE OUTLIER. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHORT WV SOLUTION RESULTS IN SOME
INSTAB -SHRA/SN AT HIR TRRN...VRBL CLOUDS...BRISK N WINDS AND THIS
SOLUTION IS THE ONE THE FCST WILL LEAN TWRD WITH NAM BEING THROWN
OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THIS PERIOD. 500HPA TROF OVER
MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART...MASSIVE SFC HIGH FM HUDSONS BAY
WILL BUILD INTO GRTLKS. FCA WILL BE BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDS...SOME CLOUDS INTO FRI AS 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
ROTATED ACROSS FCA. BY SAT SFC HIGH HAS MOVED INTO RGN. GFS SHIFTS
500HPA TROF OFFSHORE...ECMWF HAS CUTOFF FORM ALONG DELMARVA/SE
COAST WHILE GFS KEEPS PROGRESSIVE TROFS MOVING OFFSHORE. ECMWF
DEVELOPS POTENTIAL COASTAL SFC LOW THAT DRIFTS N WITH CUTOFF. THIS
SYSTEM BACKS INTO FCA SUN WITH CLDS AN LT RN. FOR NOW WILL GO
W/GMOS SOLUTION. SINCE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS IN DAYS 7-8. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NR NRMLS...REACHING 5 DEGREES ABV BY END OF PD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE EXPANDING STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE
REGION. UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY WITH LOWER CIGS
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR WET CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THOSE
WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KTS
AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE NT...MAINLY VFR...CHC -RA OR -SHRA.
WED-THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...THEN A MASSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS
TONIGHT...THE WET WEATHER ALSO SUBSIDES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RANGE
BETWEEN 80 AND 90 PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...BECOMING
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS...THEN INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE
AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
THE ONLY PCPN EXPECTED IN THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE A QUARTER TO THIRD
INCH TODAY...ISOLATED -SHRA LATE TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WILL BE DRY
WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL AT FIRST...RISING NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK AND
ENDING THE WEEK ABV NORMALS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...GJM/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1038 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
REGION PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS
HAVE COMPLETELY OVERTAKEN THE CWA. MEANWHILE...THE 12 UTC KALY
SOUNDING SHOWS ENOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR THE BOTTOM FEW THOUSAND
FEET OF THE COLUMN...AND BUFR MODEL SOUNDING SUPPORT THIS HOLDING
FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL. THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW NO RETURNS ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN NY/LAKE
ONTARIO DUE TO A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST CLOUDY...BUT DRY
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AROUND NOON.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL STEADILY INCREASE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MOST AREAS BY THE LATE AFTN HOURS. THE NEW 12 UTC
NAM AND 10 UTC 3KM HRRR ALL SHOW BATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST QPF ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS...AS THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. ALTOUGH
QPF SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...ALL AREAS SEEM TO AT LEAST GET A FEW
HUNDREDTHS...SO HIGH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SEEM WARRANTED. MAX
TEMPS TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE EARLY AFTN JUST BEFORE THE
START OF PRECIP...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
SRN DACKS TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
AFTER 00 UTC...WILL START TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...AS MODEL GUIDANCES SHOWS THE BEST FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DROPPING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AT THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN /GENERALLY 2500 FT AND ABOVE/...ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS COULD START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
TEMPS ALOFT START TO CRASH. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS VERY
LIGHT...OF ABOUT A HALF INCH OR SO...AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
HIGH PEAKS OF THE CATSKILLS AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT. A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. VALLEY AREAS WILL PROBABLY JUST STAY AS RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN ANY
VALLEY AREAS AT THIS TIME.
ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE FINISHED BY AROUND 06 UTC...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AS SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF...WITH MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE 20S IN THE DACKS TO THE MID 30S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT OTHER THAN 6-9
HOURS DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF TUES CDFNT AND INTENSITY OF 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WED.
FAST MOVING FLOW AT 500HPA OVER RGN...AS 500HPA TROF DEPARTS...RIDGE
BUILDS EAST...ANOTHER SHORT WV FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE. AT SFC MASSIVE HIGH BUILDS FM
HUDSONS BAY S INTO GRTLKS AS A SERIES OF STRONG 500HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE SE ACROSS THE RGN. THE MODEL SUITE GENERALLY (GFS/GEM/12UTC
ECMWF) ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORT WAVES...THE NAM THE LEAST AND
THE OUTLIER. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHORT WV SOLUTION RESULTS IN SOME
INSTAB -SHRA/SN AT HIR TRRN...VRBL CLOUDS...BRISK N WINDS AND THIS
SOLUTION IS THE ONE THE FCST WILL LEAN TWRD WITH NAM BEING THROWN
OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THIS PERIOD. 500HPA TROF OVER
MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART...MASSIVE SFC HIGH FM HUDSONS BAY
WILL BUILD INTO GRTLKS. FCA WILL BE BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDS...SOME CLOUDS INTO FRI AS 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
ROTATED ACROSS FCA. BY SAT SFC HIGH HAS MOVED INTO RGN. GFS SHIFTS
500HPA TROF OFFSHORE...ECMWF HAS CUTOFF FORM ALONG DELMARVA/SE
COAST WHILE GFS KEEPS PROGRESSIVE TROFS MOVING OFFSHORE. ECMWF
DEVELOPS POTENTIAL COASTAL SFC LOW THAT DRIFTS N WITH CUTOFF. THIS
SYSTEM BACKS INTO FCA SUN WITH CLDS AN LT RN. FOR NOW WILL GO
W/GMOS SOLUTION. SINCE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS IN DAYS 7-8. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NR NRMLS...REACHING 5 DEGREES ABV BY END OF PD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE EXPANDING STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE
REGION. UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY WITH LOWER CIGS
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR WET CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THOSE
WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KTS
AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE NT...MAINLY VFR...CHC -RA OR -SHRA.
WED-THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...THEN A MASSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS
TONIGHT...THE WET WEATHER ALSO SUBSIDES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RANGE
BETWEEN 80 AND 90 PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...BECOMING
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS...THEN INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE
AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
THE ONLY PCPN EXPECTED IN THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE A QUARTER TO THIRD
INCH TODAY...ISOLATED -SHRA LATE TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WILL BE DRY
WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL AT FIRST...RISING NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK AND
ENDING THE WEEK ABV NORMALS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
INTO THE REGION FROM HUDSON BAY MONDAY...AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE REST OF THE HUDSONS
BAY HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A
STORM LINGERS IN THE MARITIMES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRATUS DECK EXPANDING SLOWLY THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PER
THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS UNDERWAY FROM THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PER THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...THE
UPPER JET WAS GREATER THAN 120KTS...SO A RATHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM.
FORECAST BUFR PROFILES ALL SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HANG
ON TOUGH THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND WILL CUT BACK POPS
ACCORDINGLY. LATEST RUC13/HRRR DOES SUGGEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP AND BECOME ENHANCED WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NOON HOUR AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WE WILL RAISE POPS
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES ALONG THIS FORECAST
LINE THIS SUNDAY MORNING.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE CHILLY YET THOSE BOUNDARY LAYER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MILD TODAY. THE FREEZING LEVEL FORECASTS
FROM THE NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGEST FOR SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER
HIGH...AT OR ABOVE 2K FEET. SO FOR MOST OF THE REGION...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR MAINLY RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS TODAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WE WILL
SHADE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST LAV/LAMP.
PRECIP WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH THE
QUICK DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME UPSLOPE CLOUD
ENHANCEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES...ARE EXPECTED BUT WE WILL DIMINISH THOSE POPS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT OTHER THAN 6-9
HOURS DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF TUES CDFNT AND INTENSITY OF 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WED.
FAST MOVING FLOW AT 500HPA OVER RGN...AS 500HPA TROF DEPARTS...RIDGE
BUILDS EAST...ANOTHER SHORT WV FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE. AT SFC MASSIVE HIGH BUILDS FM
HUDSONS BAY S INTO GRTLKS AS A SERIES OF STRONG 500HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE SE ACROSS THE RGN. THE MODEL SUITE GENERALLY (GFS/GEM/12UTC
ECMWF) ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORT WAVES...THE NAM THE LEAST AND
THE OUTLIER. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHORT WV SOLUTION RESULTS IN SOME
INSTAB -SHRA/SN AT HIR TRRN...VRBL CLOUDS...BRISK N WINDS AND THIS
SOLUTION IS THE ONE THE FCST WILL LEAN TWRD WITH NAM BEING THROWN
OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THIS PERIOD. 500HPA TROF OVER
MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART...MASSIVE SFC HIGH FM HUDSONS BAY
WILL BUILD INTO GRTLKS. FCA WILL BE BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDS...SOME CLOUDS INTO FRI AS 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
ROTATED ACROSS FCA. BY SAT SFC HIGH HAS MOVED INTO RGN. GFS SHIFTS
500HPA TROF OFFSHORE...ECMWF HAS CUTOFF FORM ALONG DELMARVA/SE
COAST WHILE GFS KEEPS PROGRESSIVE TROFS MOVING OFFSHORE. ECMWF
DEVELOPS POTENTIAL COASTAL SFC LOW THAT DRIFTS N WITH CUTOFF. THIS
SYSTEM BACKS INTO FCA SUN WITH CLDS AN LT RN. FOR NOW WILL GO
W/GMOS SOLUTION. SINCE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS IN DAYS 7-8. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NR NRMLS...REACHING 5 DEGREES ABV BY END OF PD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE EXPANDING STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE
REGION. UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY WITH LOWER CIGS
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR WET CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THOSE
WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KTS
AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE NT...MAINLY VFR...CHC -RA OR -SHRA.
WED-THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...THEN A MASSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS
TONIGHT...THE WET WEATHER ALSO SUBSIDES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RANGE
BETWEEN 80 AND 90 PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...BECOMING
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS...THEN INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE
AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
THE ONLY PCPN EXPECTED IN THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE A QUARTER TO THIRD
INCH TODAY...ISOLATED -SHRA LATE TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WILL BE DRY
WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL AT FIRST...RISING NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK AND
ENDING THE WEEK ABV NORMALS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EDT MON APR 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN
THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY SLOWLY BUILD INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PROBABLY PROVIDING AN EXTENDED SPELL OF DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE NEW JERSEY COAST
THIS EVENING. THE GUSTINESS TO THE WIND HAS DROPPED OFF ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA (OUTSIDE OF THE TERRAIN) AND MUCH
WESTERN NEW JERSEY. GUSTS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW
JERSEY AND COASTAL DELAWARE...WHERE THE MIXING IS STILL OCCURRING.
A RECENT AMDAR SOUNDING FROM KPHL SHOWED THAT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WAS TRYING TO SET UP...WITH 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT PROTECTED AREAS PROBABLY
SEE WINDS DROP OFF TO LESS THAN 6 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THE GRADIENT WIND REMAINS...BUT THE GUSTINESS
IS PROBABLY DONE FOR THE NIGHT.
A DRY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE BACK OF THE CLOSED MD
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE
A BIT...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE STRATIFIED ENOUGH BY THEN
TO TAMP DOWN MUCH GUSTINESS. IN ANY EVENT...THE LOWER WINDS THIS
EVENING IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE.
BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND THE LOW DEW POINTS...LOWS WERE
NUDGED DOWN IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE NEW
JERSEY PINE BARRENS. BASED ON THE CHANGE...PATCHY FROST WAS ADDED
TO PHILADELPHIA AND DELAWARE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
BUT IT MAY BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT IN THESE LOCATIONS.
BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE FROST ADVISORY WILL NOT BE EXTENDED INTO
PHILADELPHIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
WHILE SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE, ALONG WITH 925/850 MB TEMPERATURES. MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST
PLACES, WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES AND AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WILL BE COOLER WITH
TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST
PRETTY STRONG IN THE MORNING, BUT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE HIGH SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR, EXCEPT SOME CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...A DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL BE
PREDOMINANT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE NEAR
THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS TIME. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. POPS ARE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE FOR THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS (WHICH MEANS THEY
WILL FEEL PRETTY COOL COMPARED TO RECENT WEATHER). FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LATER FORECASTS WILL REFINE THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE.
THIS FORECAST CONTINUES THE PATTERN OF ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER THAT
HAS AFFECTED THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...AS WEAKENING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A
RECENT AMDAR SOUNDING FROM KPHL SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE IS
ATTEMPTING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE REST OF THE MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LATER ARE STILL NEAR 40 KNOTS...SO
GUSTINESS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 0300 UTC OR SO (ESPECIALLY FOR THE
KPHL METRO AIRPORTS).
NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WINDS COULD
ARRIVE AROUND 0600 UTC TUESDAY. THE DECOUPLING SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED...SO FOR NOW NO ADDITIONAL GUSTINESS WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. HEATING WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW GUSTINESS TO
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 1400 OR 1500 UTC AT JUST ABOUT ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS LOWER TO 4000 FT IN WIDELY SCT SHOWERS LATE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN NEAR 5000 FT.
AFTERNOON NW GUSTS 18 TO 22 KTS.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR. NW WIND G10-15KTS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE TEMPORARILY DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS
ALL WATERS THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE 6 FOOT SHORT PERIOD
WIND WAVES HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY 4 FOOT LONGER PERIOD SWELL...AND
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.
THE QUANDARY IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE
LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF WIND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL SYSTEM LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELED PUSH WOULD BRING WINDS BACK TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS (AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS)...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 600 AM. WHILE WINDS ARE
BELOW THE LIMITS NOW...WOULD HATE TO DROP THE ADVISORY WITH
ANOTHER PUSH ON THE WAY. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IF THE WINDS TO NOT MATERIALIZE.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY,
BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...WE DID NOT EXTEND THE
ADVISORY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ON THE WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED. LATER SHIFTS CAN EXTEND IF THEY NEED TO.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MODERATE PROBABILITY AN SCA WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PART OF
THIS DAY.
THU-FRI-SAT...PROBABLY NO HAZARDS WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LOW TUESDAY BUT WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WINDY AS TODAY. FUELS MAY STILL BE A BIT
MOIST AS WELL, BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THAT AN SPS MAY BE NEEDED. WEDNESDAY MAY BE DRY AND BREEZY
AGAIN, SO WE WILL NEED TO COORDINATE WITH PARTNERS AGAIN FOR
POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS IF FUELS HAVE DRIED OUT BY THEN.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ060>062.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ067>069.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ007>010.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>022-
027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/HAYES
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/HAYES
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
223 PM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1005 AM CDT
THE EARLY MORNING STORMS HAVE MOVED QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA. IN THEIR WAKE...THEY HELPED TO SINK THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 88 AT AROUND 10 AM. TO THE
NORTH...WHERE STRATUS AND NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN BASICALLY FLAT LINE. WHILE SOME MIXING OUT OF THE
STRATUS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING...REINFORCING NORTHEAST COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL EVOLVE AS A WEAK LOW SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ENABLE THE FRONT TO MOVE
SOUTH KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER TO THE NORTH...WITH PLACES
SEEING A FALL THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR DOWNSTREAM OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE 01.12 NAM CAPTURES THIS TREND WELL...AND SEEMS
TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS EVOLUTION...HINTING AT LOW
CLOUDS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
IT IS A TALE OF TWO DIFFERENT DAYS ACROSS THE CWA AS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE OFF TO THE RACES WITH MID 60S
ALREADY AT 10 AM IN PERU AND PONTIAC. A WARM-UP TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE 80 DEGREES STILL LOOKS WELL IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY SEEING
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ALREADY INDICATING GOOD MIXING AND
CONTINUED LOW- LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE 12Z ILX RAOB HAD NEAR
1300 J/KG OF MUCAPE WHICH SHOULD BE A GOOD BASELINE FOR WHAT IS
SHIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO WARM.
THIS LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE/POOL THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG IN THE FAR SOUTH...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY PRONOUNCED
TRIGGER AND A QUICKLY WEAKENING LOW- LEVEL JET. THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO INCREASE CONVERGENCE
SOME AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...AN ILL-
DEFINED SHORT WAVE RIPPLE IN EASTERN IA IS SHIFTING EAST. TOGETHER
IT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 24 THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT ONE THIRD OF
EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE LOOKED AT HAS THAT FORM OF SOLUTION.
INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT MAINLY A HAIL THREAT IF
ANY STORM WERE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PUSH EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ON NOSE
OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
RIDING H5 HEIGHTS DOWN THE RIDGE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT
LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR 1000 J/KG GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I39 CORRIDOR SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. THREAT
SHOULD TAPER THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
AND THETA E ADVECTION WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PUSH EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED THUS BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING IN RESPONSE
TO LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
MARINE LAYER SPREADS INLAND.
MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE/LOW PRESSURE. A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TRYING TO REACHING THE 80 MARK...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER WEST. ALSO HAD TO DROP TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT SEVERAL DEGREES AS LATEST GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
SUGGESTS 60S POSSIBLY EVEN 50S AS WE STAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS OFF THE LAKE IN ILLINOIS. AM CONCERNED
TEMPS ARE STILL A LITTLE HIGH THOUGH FOR MONDAY ALONG THE ILLINOIS
SHORES.
TUESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE IN AREA OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND
EXPECT TO BE CLIPPED BY COOLER AIR ALOFT //H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3C THURSDAY// BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHOULD BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* PERSISTENT FOG WITH 4-5SM VIS TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
* HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING VFR THIS
EVENING.
* NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BECOMING EAST
SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. ITS THIS BOUNDARY WHICH IS HELPING
TO PROVIDE VARYING SKY AND WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER RATHER SMALL
DISTANCES. LOWER CEILINGS WHICH HAVE BEEN SITUATED OVER FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN HAVE FINALLY WORKED THEIR
WAY SOUTH OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GYY AT
THIS TIME. WITH THIS SOUTHERLY PUSH...HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
SHIFTED OVERHEAD AND EXPECT THESE CEILINGS/HEIGHTS TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH GYY ALSO
OBSERVING THESE LOWER CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL EXTENT
OF THIS LOW CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN ERODING ON ALL SIDES TODAY AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH ADVECTS
SOUTH...WITH CEILINGS TO SCATTER/SHIFT OUT OF THE TERMINALS LATER
THIS EVENING. WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY...FOG
WITH VIS OF 3-5SM HAS BEEN IN PLACE. INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE THAT
THIS FOG WOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID DAY...BUT LATEST THINKING HAS
SINCE CHANGED WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
NOW THAT THESE LOWER CEILINGS HAVE MOVED OVERHEAD...DONT SEE ANY
REASON WHY THE FOG WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG OF 4-5SM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL HOLD OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INCREASE IN SPEED...BUT WITH NO PREVAILING GUSTS EXPECTED. THEN
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH DAY TIME MIXING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH FOG/VIS TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS/TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA/TSRA EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
220 PM CDT
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WITH US THROUGH TUESDAY. A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER HUDSON BAY...AND A SERIES OF
LOWS EXTEND FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. AS
THE LOWS MOVE EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEK...THE GRADIENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WILL TIGHTEN...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 25 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS RAISES CONCERNS OF
HIGHER WAVES ACROSS THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE ZONES. NO PLANS TO ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS. THE SOUTHERN LOW
WEAKENS AS IT PASSES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY. EXACT
TIMING OF WHEN THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE IS UNCERTAIN AS THE
MODELS SHOW A 6 HOUR DIFFERENCE IN TIMING. THE NORTHERN LOW MOVES
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO...AND ITS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 20 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
114 PM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1005 AM CDT
THE EARLY MORNING STORMS HAVE MOVED QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA. IN THEIR WAKE...THEY HELPED TO SINK THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 88 AT AROUND 10 AM. TO THE
NORTH...WHERE STRATUS AND NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN BASICALLY FLAT LINE. WHILE SOME MIXING OUT OF THE
STRATUS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING...REINFORCING NORTHEAST COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL EVOLVE AS A WEAK LOW SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ENABLE THE FRONT TO MOVE
SOUTH KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER TO THE NORTH...WITH PLACES
SEEING A FALL THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR DOWNSTREAM OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE 01.12 NAM CAPTURES THIS TREND WELL...AND SEEMS
TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS EVOLUTION...HINTING AT LOW
CLOUDS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
IT IS A TALE OF TWO DIFFERENT DAYS ACROSS THE CWA AS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE OFF TO THE RACES WITH MID 60S
ALREADY AT 10 AM IN PERU AND PONTIAC. A WARM-UP TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE 80 DEGREES STILL LOOKS WELL IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY SEEING
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ALREADY INDICATING GOOD MIXING AND
CONTINUED LOW- LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE 12Z ILX RAOB HAD NEAR
1300 J/KG OF MUCAPE WHICH SHOULD BE A GOOD BASELINE FOR WHAT IS
SHIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO WARM.
THIS LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE/POOL THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG IN THE FAR SOUTH...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY PRONOUNCED
TRIGGER AND A QUICKLY WEAKENING LOW- LEVEL JET. THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO INCREASE CONVERGENCE
SOME AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...AN ILL-
DEFINED SHORT WAVE RIPPLE IN EASTERN IA IS SHIFTING EAST. TOGETHER
IT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 24 THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT ONE THIRD OF
EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE LOOKED AT HAS THAT FORM OF SOLUTION.
INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT MAINLY A HAIL THREAT IF
ANY STORM WERE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PUSH EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ON NOSE
OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
RIDING H5 HEIGHTS DOWN THE RIDGE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT
LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR 1000 J/KG GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I39 CORRIDOR SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. THREAT
SHOULD TAPER THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
AND THETA E ADVECTION WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PUSH EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED THUS BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING IN RESPONSE
TO LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
MARINE LAYER SPREADS INLAND.
MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE/LOW PRESSURE. A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TRYING TO REACHING THE 80 MARK...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER WEST. ALSO HAD TO DROP TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT SEVERAL DEGREES AS LATEST GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
SUGGESTS 60S POSSIBLY EVEN 50S AS WE STAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS OFF THE LAKE IN ILLINOIS. AM CONCERNED
TEMPS ARE STILL A LITTLE HIGH THOUGH FOR MONDAY ALONG THE ILLINOIS
SHORES.
TUESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE IN AREA OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND
EXPECT TO BE CLIPPED BY COOLER AIR ALOFT //H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3C THURSDAY// BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHOULD BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* PERSISTENT FOG WITH 4-5SM VIS TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
* HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING VFR THIS
EVENING.
* NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BECOMING EAST
SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. ITS THIS BOUNDARY WHICH IS HELPING
TO PROVIDE VARYING SKY AND WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER RATHER SMALL
DISTANCES. LOWER CEILINGS WHICH HAVE BEEN SITUATED OVER FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN HAVE FINALLY WORKED THEIR
WAY SOUTH OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GYY AT
THIS TIME. WITH THIS SOUTHERLY PUSH...HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
SHIFTED OVERHEAD AND EXPECT THESE CEILINGS/HEIGHTS TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH GYY ALSO
OBSERVING THESE LOWER CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL EXTENT
OF THIS LOW CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN ERODING ON ALL SIDES TODAY AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH ADVECTS
SOUTH...WITH CEILINGS TO SCATTER/SHIFT OUT OF THE TERMINALS LATER
THIS EVENING. WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY...FOG
WITH VIS OF 3-5SM HAS BEEN IN PLACE. INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE THAT
THIS FOG WOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID DAY...BUT LATEST THINKING HAS
SINCE CHANGED WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
NOW THAT THESE LOWER CEILINGS HAVE MOVED OVERHEAD...DONT SEE ANY
REASON WHY THE FOG WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG OF 4-5SM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL HOLD OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INCREASE IN SPEED...BUT WITH NO PREVAILING GUSTS EXPECTED. THEN
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH DAY TIME MIXING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH FOG/VIS TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS/TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA/TSRA EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WHILE A COMPLEX SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE NOTED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ONE LOW...OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING WHERE
IT WILL DEEPEN. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IOWA
WILL DRIFT EAST WITH A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE
FIRST LOW INTO THIS WEAKER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
LOW. AS A RESULT OF THIS FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND EASTERLY TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MODULATES
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST INCREASE SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
EXPECTED. SPEEDS LOOK TO EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING THEN DROPPING OFF TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE LOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS WITH 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH THEN GRADUALLY
SPREADS EASTWARD KEEPING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL PASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE
SO PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HIGH...BUT HIGHEST SPEEDS LOOK TO BE UNDER 20 KTS
OR SO FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1258 PM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING MCS WELL OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING
SUNNY SKIES IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES ARE QUICK TO REBOUND AS
WELL...LENDING MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE WARM FORECAST. NEWEST NAM
KEEPS AFTERNOON DRY...CONSIDERING THE RAPID RETREAT OF THE SHOWERS
THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP ISL WORDING...AND NOT RAISE THE POP THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY AND POP GRIDS. UPDATE
OUT MOMENTARILY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1254 PM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
NEW MODELS COMING IN DRY THRU TAF PD. SWRLY/WRLY WINDS COMING
AROUND TO SRLY THEN EASTERLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS WEAK BOUNDARY
MOVES BACK NORTH. CU THRU THE AFTERNOON SCT OUT AS LLVL STRATUS
DEVELOPS WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED IN BOUNDARY LAYER ON RH TIME
HEIGHTS. NOT DROPPING CIGS BELOW MVFR HOWEVER...AS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON MAY COUNTER AND MIX OUT A BIT MORE
EFFECTIVELY THAN MOS HINTS.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
SMALL MCS FORMED AS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN IOWA LATE IN THE
EVENING...AND HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES. HAVE SEEN SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS LINCOLN AT 2 AM.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LATEST HRRR MODEL...WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY...
SHOWS MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON HOW LONG TO LINGER IT
THIS MORNING. ONCE THAT CLEARS OUT...TEMPERATURES BECOME THE
PRIMARY FOCUS. STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...CLOSE TO THE DAILY RECORDS. HOWEVER...EVENING MODEL
RUNS SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY
SLIP A BIT SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A RATHER STIFF
NORTHEAST FLOW. IF IT SLIPS TOO FAR...THEN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA MAY END UP BEING COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WRF MODEL OUT
OF WFO CHICAGO HAS THE BOUNDARY ALMOST ALL THE WAY TO I-74 BY
6 PM. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY REACH AT LEAST INTO PART OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO RETREAT. SAME PROBLEM EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON...DUE TO ITS POSITION. HAVE PULLED
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT NORTH OF I-74...BUT STILL GOING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA. REMAINDER OF THE CWA MORE
LIKELY TO REACH THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN NEAR THE RECORDS.
TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED A BIT FROM EARLIER RUNS...SO HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES SOUTH
OF I-70 WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH LOWER 80S.
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKING TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD REMAINS WITH A
CUTOFF LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY IN
THE WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK
THAT TAKES IT SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT WILL STILL SEE THE
RAIN SHIELD ON THE NORTHERN FLANK EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTH. HAVE
CUT BACK ON THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1122 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1005 AM CDT
THE EARLY MORNING STORMS HAVE MOVED QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA. IN THEIR WAKE...THEY HELPED TO SINK THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 88 AT AROUND 10 AM. TO THE
NORTH...WHERE STRATUS AND NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN BASICALLY FLAT LINE. WHILE SOME MIXING OUT OF THE
STRATUS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING...REINFORCING NORTHEAST COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL EVOLVE AS A WEAK LOW SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ENABLE THE FRONT TO MOVE
SOUTH KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER TO THE NORTH...WITH PLACES
SEEING A FALL THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR DOWNSTREAM OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE 01.12 NAM CAPTURES THIS TREND WELL...AND SEEMS
TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS EVOLUTION...HINTING AT LOW
CLOUDS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
IT IS A TALE OF TWO DIFFERENT DAYS ACROSS THE CWA AS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE OFF TO THE RACES WITH MID 60S
ALREADY AT 10 AM IN PERU AND PONTIAC. A WARM-UP TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE 80 DEGREES STILL LOOKS WELL IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY SEEING
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ALREADY INDICATING GOOD MIXING AND
CONTINUED LOW- LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE 12Z ILX RAOB HAD NEAR
1300 J/KG OF MUCAPE WHICH SHOULD BE A GOOD BASELINE FOR WHAT IS
SHIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO WARM.
THIS LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE/POOL THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG IN THE FAR SOUTH...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY PRONOUNCED
TRIGGER AND A QUICKLY WEAKENING LOW- LEVEL JET. THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO INCREASE CONVERGENCE
SOME AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...AN ILL-
DEFINED SHORT WAVE RIPPLE IN EASTERN IA IS SHIFTING EAST. TOGETHER
IT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 24 THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT ONE THIRD OF
EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE LOOKED AT HAS THAT FORM OF SOLUTION.
INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT MAINLY A HAIL THREAT IF
ANY STORM WERE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PUSH EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ON NOSE
OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
RIDING H5 HEIGHTS DOWN THE RIDGE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT
LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR 1000 J/KG GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I39 CORRIDOR SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. THREAT
SHOULD TAPER THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
AND THETA E ADVECTION WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PUSH EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED THUS BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING IN RESPONSE
TO LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
MARINE LAYER SPREADS INLAND.
MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE/LOW PRESSURE. A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TRYING TO REACHING THE 80 MARK...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER WEST. ALSO HAD TO DROP TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT SEVERAL DEGREES AS LATEST GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
SUGGESTS 60S POSSIBLY EVEN 50S AS WE STAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS OFF THE LAKE IN ILLINOIS. AM CONCERNED
TEMPS ARE STILL A LITTLE HIGH THOUGH FOR MONDAY ALONG THE ILLINOIS
SHORES.
TUESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE IN AREA OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND
EXPECT TO BE CLIPPED BY COOLER AIR ALOFT //H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3C THURSDAY// BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHOULD BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* FOG WITH VIS OF 4-5SM THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BY MID DAY.
* VFR CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT BY MID AFTERNOON.
* NORTHEAST WINDS STEADILY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
EXPECT SOME RATHER VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN
TERMS OF WINDS/CIGS/VSBY. CURRENTLY...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAR NE IL IS MOVING INTO NW IN AND WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF GYY
TOWARD 14Z. NEXT CONCERNS ARE RELATED TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KCID TO
KRPJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPWK THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING BRINGING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CHI AND NW IN TERMINALS...WITH RFD ALREADY SEEING NE
WINDS. AS THE FRONT MOVES WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH A SOUTH TO WEST DIRECTION. GIVEN THE RAINFALL THIS
MORNING AND THE LIGHT WIND REGIME EXPECT THAT MVFR VSBY WILL
PREVAIL...WITH SOME IFR TOWARDS DPA AND RFD...THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING AND POSSIBLY LONGER. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK BY MIDDAY
WHICH WOULD THEN SCATTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE SHIFT TO A COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AND THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT MIST/HAZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BUT SOME MVFR VSBY REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE LATE.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FOG/VIS TRENDS AND TIMING IMPROVEMENT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA/TSRA EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WHILE A COMPLEX SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE NOTED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ONE LOW...OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING WHERE
IT WILL DEEPEN. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IOWA
WILL DRIFT EAST WITH A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE
FIRST LOW INTO THIS WEAKER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
LOW. AS A RESULT OF THIS FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND EASTERLY TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MODULATES
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST INCREASE SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
EXPECTED. SPEEDS LOOK TO EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING THEN DROPPING OFF TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE LOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS WITH 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH THEN GRADUALLY
SPREADS EASTWARD KEEPING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL PASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE
SO PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HIGH...BUT HIGHEST SPEEDS LOOK TO BE UNDER 20 KTS
OR SO FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1051 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING MCS WELL OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING
SUNNY SKIES IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES ARE QUICK TO REBOUND AS
WELL...LENDING MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE WARM FORECAST. NEWEST NAM
KEEPS AFTERNOON DRY...CONSIDERING THE RAPID RETREAT OF THE SHOWERS
THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP ISL WORDING...AND NOT RAISE THE POP THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY AND POP GRIDS. UPDATE
OUT MOMENTARILY.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012...FOR THE 12Z TAFS
THE ONLY LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN DEC WITH 5SM BR AT
1145Z. STORMS HAVE MOVE EAST OF CMI...AN NO PRECIP SHOULD AFFECT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ACTUALLY...ALL OUR TERMINALS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONFIRM WHAT THE CU RULE IS INDICATING FOR VFR
CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE CLOUDS MAY REDUCE HIGH
TEMPS A LITTLE, BUT IT WILL STILL BE A VERY WARM DAY.
SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG MAY FORM AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IL FROM NORTHERN IL AND N
INDIANA. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE EAST...FOR
CMI AND POSSIBLY DEC. WE INTRODUCED A VCSH WITH CB IN CMI AFTER
10Z.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD TO
SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING. WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH UP NEAR 20KT AT
TIMES DURING PEAK MIXING OF LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO C IL TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST-
SOUTHEAST AGAIN...REMAINING IN THE 10-13KT RANGE FOR MOST TERMINAL
SITES. LIGHT MVFR FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR NORTHERN TAFS OF PIA/BMI/CMI. MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
SHIMON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
SMALL MCS FORMED AS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN IOWA LATE IN THE
EVENING...AND HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES. HAVE SEEN SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS LINCOLN AT 2 AM.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LATEST HRRR MODEL...WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY...
SHOWS MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON HOW LONG TO LINGER IT
THIS MORNING. ONCE THAT CLEARS OUT...TEMPERATURES BECOME THE
PRIMARY FOCUS. STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...CLOSE TO THE DAILY RECORDS. HOWEVER...EVENING MODEL
RUNS SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY
SLIP A BIT SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A RATHER STIFF
NORTHEAST FLOW. IF IT SLIPS TOO FAR...THEN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA MAY END UP BEING COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WRF MODEL OUT
OF WFO CHICAGO HAS THE BOUNDARY ALMOST ALL THE WAY TO I-74 BY
6 PM. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY REACH AT LEAST INTO PART OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO RETREAT. SAME PROBLEM EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON...DUE TO ITS POSITION. HAVE PULLED
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT NORTH OF I-74...BUT STILL GOING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA. REMAINDER OF THE CWA MORE
LIKELY TO REACH THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN NEAR THE RECORDS.
TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED A BIT FROM EARLIER RUNS...SO HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES SOUTH
OF I-70 WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH LOWER 80S.
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKING TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD REMAINS WITH A
CUTOFF LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY IN
THE WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK
THAT TAKES IT SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT WILL STILL SEE THE
RAIN SHIELD ON THE NORTHERN FLANK EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTH. HAVE
CUT BACK ON THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1005 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
1005 AM CDT
THE EARLY MORNING STORMS HAVE MOVED QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA. IN THEIR WAKE...THEY HELPED TO SINK THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 88 AT AROUND 10 AM. TO THE
NORTH...WHERE STRATUS AND NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN BASICALLY FLAT LINE. WHILE SOME MIXING OUT OF THE
STRATUS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING...REINFORCING NORTHEAST COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL EVOLVE AS A WEAK LOW SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ENABLE THE FRONT TO MOVE
SOUTH KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER TO THE NORTH...WITH PLACES
SEEING A FALL THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR DOWNSTREAM OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE 01.12 NAM CAPTURES THIS TREND WELL...AND SEEMS
TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS EVOLUTION...HINTING AT LOW
CLOUDS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
IT IS A TALE OF TWO DIFFERENT DAYS ACROSS THE CWA AS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE OFF TO THE RACES WITH MID 60S
ALREADY AT 10 AM IN PERU AND PONTIAC. A WARM-UP TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE 80 DEGREES STILL LOOKS WELL IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY SEEING
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ALREADY INDICATING GOOD MIXING AND
CONTINUED LOW- LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE 12Z ILX RAOB HAD NEAR
1300 J/KG OF MUCAPE WHICH SHOULD BE A GOOD BASELINE FOR WHAT IS
SHIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO WARM.
THIS LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE/POOL THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG IN THE FAR SOUTH...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY PRONOUNCED
TRIGGER AND A QUICKLY WEAKENING LOW- LEVEL JET. THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO INCREASE CONVERGENCE
SOME AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...AN ILL-
DEFINED SHORT WAVE RIPPLE IN EASTERN IA IS SHIFTING EAST. TOGETHER
IT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 24 THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT ONE THIRD OF
EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE LOOKED AT HAS THAT FORM OF SOLUTION.
INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT MAINLY A HAIL THREAT IF
ANY STORM WERE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PUSH EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ON NOSE
OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
RIDING H5 HEIGHTS DOWN THE RIDGE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT
LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR 1000 J/KG GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I39 CORRIDOR SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. THREAT
SHOULD TAPER THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
AND THETA E ADVECTION WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PUSH EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED THUS BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING IN RESPONSE
TO LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
MARINE LAYER SPREADS INLAND.
MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE/LOW PRESSURE. A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TRYING TO REACHING THE 80 MARK...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER WEST. ALSO HAD TO DROP TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT SEVERAL DEGREES AS LATEST GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
SUGGESTS 60S POSSIBLY EVEN 50S AS WE STAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS OFF THE LAKE IN ILLINOIS. AM CONCERNED
TEMPS ARE STILL A LITTLE HIGH THOUGH FOR MONDAY ALONG THE ILLINOIS
SHORES.
TUESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE IN AREA OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND
EXPECT TO BE CLIPPED BY COOLER AIR ALOFT //H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3C THURSDAY// BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHOULD BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* FOG WITH VIS OF 3-5SM THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BY MID DAY.
* POTENTIAL REMAINING FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 1500-2000 FT
LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON.
* NORTHEAST WINDS STEADILY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
EXPECT SOME RATHER VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN
TERMS OF WINDS/CIGS/VSBY. CURRENTLY...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAR NE IL IS MOVING INTO NW IN AND WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF GYY
TOWARD 14Z. NEXT CONCERNS ARE RELATED TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KCID TO
KRPJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPWK THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING BRINGING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CHI AND NW IN TERMINALS...WITH RFD ALREADY SEEING NE
WINDS. AS THE FRONT MOVES WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH A SOUTH TO WEST DIRECTION. GIVEN THE RAINFALL THIS
MORNING AND THE LIGHT WIND REGIME EXPECT THAT MVFR VSBY WILL
PREVAIL...WITH SOME IFR TOWARDS DPA AND RFD...THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING AND POSSIBLY LONGER. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK BY MIDDAY
WHICH WOULD THEN SCATTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE SHIFT TO A COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AND THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT MIST/HAZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BUT SOME MVFR VSBY REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE LATE.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FOG/VIS TRENDS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
OF TIMING IMPROVEMENT.
* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF A PERIOD OF 1500-2000 FT CEILINGS LATE
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA/TSRA EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WHILE A COMPLEX SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE NOTED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ONE LOW...OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING WHERE
IT WILL DEEPEN. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IOWA
WILL DRIFT EAST WITH A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE
FIRST LOW INTO THIS WEAKER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
LOW. AS A RESULT OF THIS FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND EASTERLY TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MODULATES
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST INCREASE SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
EXPECTED. SPEEDS LOOK TO EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING THEN DROPPING OFF TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE LOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS WITH 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH THEN GRADUALLY
SPREADS EASTWARD KEEPING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL PASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE
SO PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HIGH...BUT HIGHEST SPEEDS LOOK TO BE UNDER 20 KTS
OR SO FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
912 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PUSH EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ON NOSE
OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
RIDING H5 HEIGHTS DOWN THE RIDGE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT
LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR 1000 J/KG GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I39 CORRIDOR SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. THREAT
SHOULD TAPER THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
AND THETA E ADVECTION WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PUSH EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED THUS BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING IN RESPONSE
TO LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
MARINE LAYER SPREADS INLAND.
MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE/LOW PRESSURE. A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TRYING TO REACHING THE 80 MARK...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER WEST. ALSO HAD TO DROP TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT SEVERAL DEGREES AS LATEST GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
SUGGESTS 60S POSSIBLY EVEN 50S AS WE STAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS OFF THE LAKE IN ILLINOIS. AM CONCERNED
TEMPS ARE STILL A LITTLE HIGH THOUGH FOR MONDAY ALONG THE ILLINOIS
SHORES.
TUESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE IN AREA OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND
EXPECT TO BE CLIPPED BY COOLER AIR ALOFT //H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3C THURSDAY// BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHOULD BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* FOG WITH VIS OF 3-5SM THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BY MID DAY.
* POTENTIAL REMAINING FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 1500-2000 FT
LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON.
* NORTHEAST WINDS STEADILY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
EXPECT SOME RATHER VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN
TERMS OF WINDS/CIGS/VSBY. CURRENTLY...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAR NE IL IS MOVING INTO NW IN AND WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF GYY
TOWARD 14Z. NEXT CONCERNS ARE RELATED TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KCID TO
KRPJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPWK THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING BRINGING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CHI AND NW IN TERMINALS...WITH RFD ALREADY SEEING NE
WINDS. AS THE FRONT MOVES WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH A SOUTH TO WEST DIRECTION. GIVEN THE RAINFALL THIS
MORNING AND THE LIGHT WIND REGIME EXPECT THAT MVFR VSBY WILL
PREVAIL...WITH SOME IFR TOWARDS DPA AND RFD...THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING AND POSSIBLY LONGER. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK BY MIDDAY
WHICH WOULD THEN SCATTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE SHIFT TO A COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AND THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT MIST/HAZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BUT SOME MVFR VSBY REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE LATE.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FOG/VIS TRENDS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
OF TIMING IMPROVEMENT.
* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF A PERIOD OF 1500-2000 FT CEILINGS LATE
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA/TSRA EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WHILE A COMPLEX SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE NOTED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ONE LOW...OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING WHERE
IT WILL DEEPEN. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IOWA
WILL DRIFT EAST WITH A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE
FIRST LOW INTO THIS WEAKER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
LOW. AS A RESULT OF THIS FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND EASTERLY TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MODULATES
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST INCREASE SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
EXPECTED. SPEEDS LOOK TO EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING THEN DROPPING OFF TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE LOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS WITH 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH THEN GRADUALLY
SPREADS EASTWARD KEEPING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL PASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE
SO PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HIGH...BUT HIGHEST SPEEDS LOOK TO BE UNDER 20 KTS
OR SO FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
655 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
SMALL MCS FORMED AS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN IOWA LATE IN THE
EVENING...AND HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES. HAVE SEEN SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS LINCOLN AT 2 AM.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LATEST HRRR MODEL...WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY...
SHOWS MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON HOW LONG TO LINGER IT
THIS MORNING. ONCE THAT CLEARS OUT...TEMPERATURES BECOME THE
PRIMARY FOCUS. STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...CLOSE TO THE DAILY RECORDS. HOWEVER...EVENING MODEL
RUNS SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY
SLIP A BIT SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A RATHER STIFF
NORTHEAST FLOW. IF IT SLIPS TOO FAR...THEN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA MAY END UP BEING COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WRF MODEL OUT
OF WFO CHICAGO HAS THE BOUNDARY ALMOST ALL THE WAY TO I-74 BY
6 PM. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY REACH AT LEAST INTO PART OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO RETREAT. SAME PROBLEM EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON...DUE TO ITS POSITION. HAVE PULLED
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT NORTH OF I-74...BUT STILL GOING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA. REMAINDER OF THE CWA MORE
LIKELY TO REACH THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN NEAR THE RECORDS.
TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED A BIT FROM EARLIER RUNS...SO HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES SOUTH
OF I-70 WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH LOWER 80S.
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKING TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD REMAINS WITH A
CUTOFF LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY IN
THE WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK
THAT TAKES IT SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT WILL STILL SEE THE
RAIN SHIELD ON THE NORTHERN FLANK EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTH. HAVE
CUT BACK ON THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012...FOR THE 12Z TAFS
THE ONLY LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN DEC WITH 5SM BR AT
1145Z. STORMS HAVE MOVE EAST OF CMI...AN NO PRECIP SHOULD AFFECT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ACTUALLY...ALL OUR TERMINALS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONFIRM WHAT THE CU RULE IS INDICATING FOR VFR
CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE CLOUDS MAY REDUCE HIGH
TEMPS A LITTLE, BUT IT WILL STILL BE A VERY WARM DAY.
SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG MAY FORM AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IL FROM NORTHERN IL AND N
INDIANA. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE EAST...FOR
CMI AND POSSIBLY DEC. WE INTRODUCED A VCSH WITH CB IN CMI AFTER
10Z.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD TO
SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING. WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH UP NEAR 20KT AT
TIMES DURING PEAK MIXING OF LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO C IL TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST-
SOUTHEAST AGAIN...REMAINING IN THE 10-13KT RANGE FOR MOST TERMINAL
SITES. LIGHT MVFR FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR NORTHERN TAFS OF PIA/BMI/CMI. MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
647 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PUSH EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ON NOSE
OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
RIDING H5 HEIGHTS DOWN THE RIDGE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT
LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR 1000 J/KG GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I39 CORRIDOR SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. THREAT
SHOULD TAPER THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
AND THETA E ADVECTION WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PUSH EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED THUS BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING IN RESPONSE
TO LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
MARINE LAYER SPREADS INLAND.
MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE/LOW PRESSURE. A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TRYING TO REACHING THE 80 MARK...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER WEST. ALSO HAD TO DROP TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT SEVERAL DEGREES AS LATEST GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
SUGGESTS 60S POSSIBLY EVEN 50S AS WE STAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS OFF THE LAKE IN ILLINOIS. AM CONCERNED
TEMPS ARE STILL A LITTLE HIGH THOUGH FOR MONDAY ALONG THE ILLINOIS
SHORES.
TUESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE IN AREA OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND
EXPECT TO BE CLIPPED BY COOLER AIR ALOFT //H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3C THURSDAY// BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHOULD BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SHRA/TSRA EXITING TO THE EAST 12-13Z.
* FEW-SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE NEXT HOUR OR SO...ESPECIALLY
AT MDW.
* MVFR MIST/HAZE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
* LIGHT/VARIABLE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST BY
LATE MORNING/MID-DAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 1500-2000 FT LATE MORNING
TO MID-AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
EXPECT SOME RATHER VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN
TERMS OF WINDS/CIGS/VSBY. CURRENTLY...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAR NE IL IS MOVING INTO NW IN AND WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF GYY
TOWARD 14Z. NEXT CONCERNS ARE RELATED TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KCID TO
KRPJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPWK THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING BRINGING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CHI AND NW IN TERMINALS...WITH RFD ALREADY SEEING NE
WINDS. AS THE FRONT MOVES WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH A SOUTH TO WEST DIRECTION. GIVEN THE RAINFALL THIS
MORNING AND THE LIGHT WIND REGIME EXPECT THAT MVFR VSBY WILL
PREVAIL...WITH SOME IFR TOWARDS DPA AND RFD...THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING AND POSSIBLY LONGER. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK BY MIDDAY
WHICH WOULD THEN SCATTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE SHIFT TO A COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AND THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT MIST/HAZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BUT SOME MVFR VSBY REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE LATE.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EXITING TO THE EAST 12-13Z.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAN FEW-SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF BKN COVERAGE
BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR MIST/HAZE CONTINUING FOR AT LEAST A
FEW HOURS...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD AND THAT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH MID
MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PERIOD OF 1500-2000 FT CIGS LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA/TSRA EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WHILE A COMPLEX SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE NOTED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ONE LOW...OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING WHERE
IT WILL DEEPEN. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IOWA
WILL DRIFT EAST WITH A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE
FIRST LOW INTO THIS WEAKER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
LOW. AS A RESULT OF THIS FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND EASTERLY TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MODULATES
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST INCREASE SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
EXPECTED. SPEEDS LOOK TO EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING THEN DROPPING OFF TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE LOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS WITH 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH THEN GRADUALLY
SPREADS EASTWARD KEEPING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL PASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE
SO PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HIGH...BUT HIGHEST SPEEDS LOOK TO BE UNDER 20 KTS
OR SO FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
406 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PUSH EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ON NOSE
OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
RIDING H5 HEIGHTS DOWN THE RIDGE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT
LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR 1000 J/KG GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I39 CORRIDOR SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. THREAT
SHOULD TAPER THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
AND THETA E ADVECTION WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PUSH EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED THUS BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING IN RESPONSE
TO LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
MARINE LAYER SPREADS INLAND.
MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE/LOW PRESSURE. A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TRYING TO REACHING THE 80 MARK...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER WEST. ALSO HAD TO DROP TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT SEVERAL DEGREES AS LATEST GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
SUGGESTS 60S POSSIBLY EVEN 50S AS WE STAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS OFF THE LAKE IN ILLINOIS. AM CONCERNED
TEMPS ARE STILL A LITTLE HIGH THOUGH FOR MONDAY ALONG THE ILLINOIS
SHORES.
TUESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE IN AREA OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND
EXPECT TO BE CLIPPED BY COOLER AIR ALOFT //H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3C THURSDAY// BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHOULD BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* SCATTERED BANDS OF TSRA APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND 10Z.
INTERMITTENT TSRA EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 12Z...POSSIBLY LINGERING
TIL 13-14Z IF NEW DEVELOPMENT ON THE REAR FLANK.
* WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING/MID-DAY. WINDS MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS AS THIS OCCURS.
* POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 1500-2000 FT LATE MORNING
TO MID-AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
BAND OF CLUSTERED SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
FAR WESTERN CHI METRO AREA AT 09Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BRINGING BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND IFR/MVFR VSBY. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND PROLONGING THE DURATION
SOMEWHAT.
MDB
FROM 06Z...
INITIAL CONCERN THIS MORNING IS WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO AFFECT TERMINALS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST IA IS SLOWLY
PROPAGATING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WOULD LIKELY SKIRT SOUTH OF
TERMINALS LATER THIS AM. NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO OCCUR ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
HOWEVER...AND SEVERAL HIGH RES EXPLICIT CONVECTION MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO FAR NORTHERN IL TOWARD
09-10Z. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED A BRIEF TEMPO MENTION FOR TS
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR EXTRAPOLATION
PARTICULARLY FOR KRFD.
ONCE MORNING STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...NEXT CONCERN IS WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WIND SHIFT BY VERY LATE
MORNING/MID-DAY AS WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES EAST AND REINFORCING
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
MOIST LAYER 1500-2000 FT IN COOL ADVECTION BENEATH INVERSION
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH DRYING TAKES PLACE BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON TO SCATTER CLOUDS.
WINDS...SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THEN SAGS THROUGH WITH SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
BY LATE MORNING OR SO...WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE IN DEEPER
MIXING WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA AFFECTING THE IMMEDIATE TERMINAL AREAS
APPROX 10-12Z...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND CURRENT ACTIVITY PROLONGING
IMPACT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PERIOD OF 1500-2000 FT CIGS LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE TSRA MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WHILE A COMPLEX SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE NOTED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ONE LOW...OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING WHERE
IT WILL DEEPEN. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IOWA
WILL DRIFT EAST WITH A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE
FIRST LOW INTO THIS WEAKER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
LOW. AS A RESULT OF THIS FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND EASTERLY TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MODULATES
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST INCREASE SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
EXPECTED. SPEEDS LOOK TO EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING THEN DROPPING OFF TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE LOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS WITH 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH THEN GRADUALLY
SPREADS EASTWARD KEEPING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL PASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE
SO PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HIGH...BUT HIGHEST SPEEDS LOOK TO BE UNDER 20 KTS
OR SO FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
320 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PUSH EASTWARD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ON NOSE
OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
RIDING H5 HEIGHTS DOWN THE RIDGE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT
LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR 1000 J/KG GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I39 CORRIDOR SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. THREAT
SHOULD TAPER THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
AND THETA E ADVECTION WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PUSH EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED THUS BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING IN RESPONSE
TO LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
MARINE LAYER SPREADS INLAND.
MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE/LOW PRESSURE. A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TRYING TO REACHING THE 80 MARK...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER WEST. ALSO HAD TO DROP TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT SEVERAL DEGREES AS LATEST GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
SUGGESTS 60S POSSIBLY EVEN 50S AS WE STAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS OFF THE LAKE IN ILLINOIS. AM CONCERNED
TEMPS ARE STILL A LITTLE HIGH THOUGH FOR MONDAY ALONG THE ILLINOIS
SHORES.
TUESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE IN AREA OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND
EXPECT TO BE CLIPPED BY COOLER AIR ALOFT //H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3C THURSDAY// BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHOULD BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* COVERAGE/TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
* WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING/MID-DAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 1500-2000 FT LATE MORNING
TO MID-AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
INITIAL CONCERN THIS MORNING IS WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO AFFECT TERMINALS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST IA IS SLOWLY
PROPAGATING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WOULD LIKELY SKIRT SOUTH OF
TERMINALS LATER THIS AM. NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO OCCUR ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
HOWEVER...AND SEVERAL HIGH RES EXPLICIT CONVECTION MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO FAR NORTHERN IL TOWARD
09-10Z. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED A BRIEF TEMPO MENTION FOR TS
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR EXTRAPOLATION
PARTICULARLY FOR KRFD.
ONCE MORNING STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...NEXT CONCERN IS WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WIND SHIFT BY VERY LATE
MORNING/MID-DAY AS WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES EAST AND REINFORCING
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
MOIST LAYER 1500-2000 FT IN COOL ADVECTION BENEATH INVERSION
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH DRYING TAKES PLACE BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON TO SCATTER CLOUDS.
WINDS...SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THEN SAGS THROUGH WITH SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
BY LATE MORNING OR SO...WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE IN DEEPER
MIXING WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TRACON AIRSPACE...BUT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACT ON INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PERIOD OF 1500-2000 FT CIGS LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE TSRA MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WHILE A COMPLEX SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE NOTED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ONE LOW...OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING WHERE
IT WILL DEEPEN. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IOWA
WILL DRIFT EAST WITH A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE
FIRST LOW INTO THIS WEAKER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
LOW. AS A RESULT OF THIS FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND EASTERLY TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MODULATES
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST INCREASE SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
EXPECTED. SPEEDS LOOK TO EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING THEN DROPPING OFF TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE LOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS WITH 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH THEN GRADUALLY
SPREADS EASTWARD KEEPING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL PASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE
SO PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HIGH...BUT HIGHEST SPEEDS LOOK TO BE UNDER 20 KTS
OR SO FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
302 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
SMALL MCS FORMED AS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN IOWA LATE IN THE
EVENING...AND HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES. HAVE SEEN SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS LINCOLN AT 2 AM.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LATEST HRRR MODEL...WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY...
SHOWS MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON HOW LONG TO LINGER IT
THIS MORNING. ONCE THAT CLEARS OUT...TEMPERATURES BECOME THE
PRIMARY FOCUS. STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...CLOSE TO THE DAILY RECORDS. HOWEVER...EVENING MODEL
RUNS SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY
SLIP A BIT SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A RATHER STIFF
NORTHEAST FLOW. IF IT SLIPS TOO FAR...THEN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA MAY END UP BEING COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WRF MODEL OUT
OF WFO CHICAGO HAS THE BOUNDARY ALMOST ALL THE WAY TO I-74 BY
6 PM. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY REACH AT LEAST INTO PART OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO RETREAT. SAME PROBLEM EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON...DUE TO ITS POSITION. HAVE PULLED
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT NORTH OF I-74...BUT STILL GOING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA. REMAINDER OF THE CWA MORE
LIKELY TO REACH THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...AGAIN NEAR THE RECORDS.
TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED A BIT FROM EARLIER RUNS...SO HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES SOUTH
OF I-70 WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH LOWER 80S.
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKING TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD REMAINS WITH A
CUTOFF LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY IN
THE WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK
THAT TAKES IT SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT WILL STILL SEE THE
RAIN SHIELD ON THE NORTHERN FLANK EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTH. HAVE
CUT BACK ON THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012...FOR THE 06Z TAFS
STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS PIA/BMI/CMI BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH
MVFR VIS IN HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS
DURING STORMS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR DURING THE STORMS. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTER RAIN AND MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
SPI/DEC. STILL BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VIS IN RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WE
DID NOT INCLUDE TEMPOS FOR MVFR AT SPI/DEC WITH THE INITIAL
ISSUANCE...AS WE EXPECT THE LINE OF STORMS TO WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES FARTHER FROM THE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR...LLJ...AND
INSTABILITY.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR RELATIVELY QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. A PERIOD OF MVFR VIS IN FOG MAY DEVELOP IN
PIA/BMI/CMI IF ANY CLEARING DEVELOPS BEFORE SUNRISE. FOG WOULD
CLEAR TO VFR BY 15Z IN THAT SCENARIO.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 10Z-14Z...THEN
REMAIN SOUTHWEST UNTIL A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REACHES NEAR
PIA/BMI/CMI TOWARD 06Z. THEN WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST BEHIND
THAT FRONT.
SHIMON
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED 218 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...MONDAY...
BLOOMINGTON......82/1981...85/1903
CHAMPAIGN........83/1946...81/1932
DECATUR..........87/1946...85/1940
EFFINGHAM........83/1986...82/2010
JACKSONVILLE.....85/1946...85/1903
LINCOLN..........85/1946...84/1940
OLNEY............85/1946...85/1940
PEORIA...........83/1946...84/1940
SPRINGFIELD......87/1946...87/1981
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
214 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
908 PM CDT
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND WX FOR TONIGHT. MAINLY DELAYING
ARRIVAL OF THREAT OF SHRA AND TSRA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND
REDUCING POPS OVER FAR NE IL FOR OVERNIGHT.
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS WEAK ECHOES TO THE W THRU N OF THE LOCAL
AREA WHERE INITIAL WAA AND RESULTING UVV AT MAINLY MID LEVELS
OCCURRING. EXPECT THESE ECHOES...ALREADY MOSTLY VIRGA UPSTREAM
WITH FEW IF ANY METARS REPORTING ANY PRECIP...WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY UP AS THEY MOVE INTO INCREASINGLY DRY MID AND LOW LEVELS.
A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED JUST NE OF DSM AROUND 0030Z AND ARE
SLOWLY INCREASING IN NUMBER AS THEY MOVE ENE-E. THESE TSRA ARE
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IN THE 850 TO 800 HPA LAYER IS IN
PLACE...WHERE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING...WHERE NOSE
OF 45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT 5 TO 6 K FT AGL SHOWN BY KDMX VAD
WIND PROFILE IS LOCATED...AND JUST AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVING OVER CENTRAL IA.
CHALLENGE TO FORECAST IS HOW EXTENSIVE FURTHER TSRA DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE AND WHERE AREA OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO MOVE OVERNIGHT.
LATEST RUC13 RUN INDICATES A RATHER SMALL AREA OF MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IA MOVES THIS AREA
EASTWARD TO E CENTRAL IA 04-06Z...AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
N CENTRAL IL TO THE CENTRAL IL-IND BORDER BY 12Z. THIS APPEARS TO
BE BEST TRACK FOR THE ELEVATED TSRA THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BY THE LLJ...THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
EXPECT RATHER SMALL AREA OF TSRA AS MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL SO
ONLY ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY WHERE FORCING FACTORS ARE MAXIMIZED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
TRS
//PREV DISCUSSION...
317 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES/CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ARE
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUNDAY.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TODAY MASKING THE FACT THAT HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IN
PLACE FOR ALL OF TODAY. ALTHOUGH...OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
SEVERAL HOLES DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WARM SUN
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR THESE HOLES TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OBSERVING SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITHIN THESE AREAS OF BETTER SOLAR
INSOLATION...TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE 50S WITH SOME AREAS
OBSERVING SOME PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS RATHER LIGHT FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE. EXPECT THIS LOW CLOUD SHIELD TO CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH TIME
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO PUSH OVERHEAD. THIS IN ITSELF SHOULD PROVIDE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATER
TONIGHT TO POSSIBLY BRING MORE CLOUDY CONDITIONS MORE TOWARDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY BUT WITH SOME VARIABILITY STILL
REMAINING WITH REGARDS TO EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT/TRACK. WITH
BACKING 850MB FLOW...A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ADVECT NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME
TONIGHT BRINGING HIGHER DEW POINT AIR TO THE REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL STEER A MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...AND HELP TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ALONG A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW FEEDING HIGHER THETA E AIR OVER THIS
BOUNDARY AND INTO ANY DEVELOPING PRECIP...THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
COULD SEE SOME EXPANSION IN COVERAGE AS IT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH EXACT TIMING OF WHEN CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AND WHERE THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLACE...HAVE
NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT KEEPING
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME
THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS IS BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA ONCE WE DECOUPLE AND
THE LLJ RAMPS UP...WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND THE 3Z-6Z TIME FRAME.
SOME HI RES DATA IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS DEVELOPING
AND QUICKLY SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT
COMPLETELY THROWN THIS OUT AS A POSSIBILITY...WITH DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. A LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST...WHICH AM CURRENTLY LEANING MORE ON THE SREF MUCAPE
OUTPUT WHICH IS SHOWING WEAKER INSTABILITY PRESENT BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING LIMITING MORE ROBUST CONVECTION...WITH OTHER GUIDANCE OF
COURSE ALSO VARYING TO THIS AMOUNT. SO WITH ANY PRECIP WHICH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THIS TO BE AN UNORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...HAIL/WIND. ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT OF HAIL COULD BE
OBSERVED MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN CWA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL RESIDE. EVEN IF A MORE
ORGANIZED MCS COULD DEVELOP...WOULD EXPECT IT TO FOLLOW THE HIGHER
SURFACE DEW POINT AIR AND BETTER INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD MORE THAN
LIKELY BE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS...ONCE AGAIN
KEEPING ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA.
THIS SITUATION WARRANTS CONTINUED MONITORING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION FOR THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN THE HWO.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY MID DAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF THE MORNINGS PRECIP WILL DEFINITELY PLAY
A KEY ROLE WITH MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT WAA ADVECTING
A WARMER AIR MASS OVERHEAD. AS SURFACE WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...IT WILL ACTUALLY
BEGIN TO RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT WITH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR WORKING
ITS WAY BACK WEST ACROSS THE CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SO OUTSIDE OF PRECIP TRENDS POSSIBLY AFFECTING TEMP
TRENDS SUNDAY...PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVEMENT WILL BE
KEY IN DEFINING MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. DID BRING DOWN TEMPS A TAD
FROM GOING FORECAST BUT HAVE KEPT THE WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA WARMER
THAN THE EAST WITH AREAS STILL TO POSSIBLY REACH THE 80 MARK...AND
AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TO REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH 60S
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
BETTER FOCUS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD PROVIDE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING RATHER WEAK. THIS WEAK FLOW COINCIDING WITH A
FORECASTED CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN US
WILL PROVIDE A TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH THE ANTICIPATION FOR GUIDANCE TO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
PLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES AND INEVITABLE PRECIP.
ALTHOUGH...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE BETTER CHANCES FOR OBSERVING
CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER FORCING AS WELL AS INSTABILITY
LOOK TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
NOT GONE OVERLY EXCITED WITH POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE
ECMWF REMAINS THE OUTLIER KEEPING A SURFACE LOW AND FORCING/PRECIP
OFF TO THE WEST FOR MOST OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE
TO COME INTO FRUITION...THAN DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD BE OBSERVED
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* COVERAGE/TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
* WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING/MID-DAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 1500-2000 FT LATE MORNING
TO MID-AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
INITIAL CONCERN THIS MORNING IS WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO AFFECT TERMINALS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST IA IS SLOWLY
PROPAGATING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WOULD LIKELY SKIRT SOUTH OF
TERMINALS LATER THIS AM. NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO OCCUR ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
HOWEVER...AND SEVERAL HIGH RES EXPLICIT CONVECTION MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO FAR NORTHERN IL TOWARD
09-10Z. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED A BRIEF TEMPO MENTION FOR TS
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR EXTRAPOLATION
PARTICULARLY FOR KRFD.
ONCE MORNING STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...NEXT CONCERN IS WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WIND SHIFT BY VERY LATE
MORNING/MID-DAY AS WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES EAST AND REINFORCING
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
MOIST LAYER 1500-2000 FT IN COOL ADVECTION BENEATH INVERSION
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH DRYING TAKES PLACE BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON TO SCATTER CLOUDS.
WINDS...SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THEN SAGS THROUGH WITH SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
BY LATE MORNING OR SO...WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE IN DEEPER
MIXING WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TRACON AIRSPACE...BUT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACT ON INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PERIOD OF 1500-2000 FT CIGS LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE TSRA MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WHILE A COMPLEX SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE NOTED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ONE LOW...OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING WHERE
IT WILL DEEPEN. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IOWA
WILL DRIFT EAST WITH A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP FROM THE
FIRST LOW INTO THIS WEAKER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
LOW. AS A RESULT OF THIS FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND EASTERLY TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MODULATES
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST INCREASE SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
EXPECTED. SPEEDS LOOK TO EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING THEN DROPPING OFF TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE LOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS WITH 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH THEN GRADUALLY
SPREADS EASTWARD KEEPING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL PASS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE
SO PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HIGH...BUT HIGHEST SPEEDS LOOK TO BE UNDER 20 KTS
OR SO FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1234 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
908 PM CDT
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND WX FOR TONIGHT. MAINLY DELAYING
ARRIVAL OF THREAT OF SHRA AND TSRA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND
REDUCING POPS OVER FAR NE IL FOR OVERNIGHT.
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS WEAK ECHOES TO THE W THRU N OF THE LOCAL
AREA WHERE INITIAL WAA AND RESULTING UVV AT MAINLY MID LEVELS
OCCURRING. EXPECT THESE ECHOES...ALREADY MOSTLY VIRGA UPSTREAM
WITH FEW IF ANY METARS REPORTING ANY PRECIP...WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY UP AS THEY MOVE INTO INCREASINGLY DRY MID AND LOW LEVELS.
A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED JUST NE OF DSM AROUND 0030Z AND ARE
SLOWLY INCREASING IN NUMBER AS THEY MOVE ENE-E. THESE TSRA ARE
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IN THE 850 TO 800 HPA LAYER IS IN
PLACE...WHERE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING...WHERE NOSE
OF 45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET AT 5 TO 6 K FT AGL SHOWN BY KDMX VAD
WIND PROFILE IS LOCATED...AND JUST AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVING OVER CENTRAL IA.
CHALLENGE TO FORECAST IS HOW EXTENSIVE FURTHER TSRA DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE AND WHERE AREA OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO MOVE OVERNIGHT.
LATEST RUC13 RUN INDICATES A RATHER SMALL AREA OF MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IA MOVES THIS AREA
EASTWARD TO E CENTRAL IA 04-06Z...AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
N CENTRAL IL TO THE CENTRAL IL-IND BORDER BY 12Z. THIS APPEARS TO
BE BEST TRACK FOR THE ELEVATED TSRA THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BY THE LLJ...THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
EXPECT RATHER SMALL AREA OF TSRA AS MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL SO
ONLY ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY WHERE FORCING FACTORS ARE MAXIMIZED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
TRS
//PREV DISCUSSION...
317 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES/CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ARE
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUNDAY.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TODAY MASKING THE FACT THAT HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IN
PLACE FOR ALL OF TODAY. ALTHOUGH...OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
SEVERAL HOLES DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WARM SUN
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR THESE HOLES TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OBSERVING SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITHIN THESE AREAS OF BETTER SOLAR
INSOLATION...TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE 50S WITH SOME AREAS
OBSERVING SOME PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS RATHER LIGHT FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE. EXPECT THIS LOW CLOUD SHIELD TO CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH TIME
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO PUSH OVERHEAD. THIS IN ITSELF SHOULD PROVIDE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATER
TONIGHT TO POSSIBLY BRING MORE CLOUDY CONDITIONS MORE TOWARDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY BUT WITH SOME VARIABILITY STILL
REMAINING WITH REGARDS TO EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT/TRACK. WITH
BACKING 850MB FLOW...A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ADVECT NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME
TONIGHT BRINGING HIGHER DEW POINT AIR TO THE REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL STEER A MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...AND HELP TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ALONG A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW FEEDING HIGHER THETA E AIR OVER THIS
BOUNDARY AND INTO ANY DEVELOPING PRECIP...THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
COULD SEE SOME EXPANSION IN COVERAGE AS IT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH EXACT TIMING OF WHEN CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AND WHERE THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLACE...HAVE
NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT KEEPING
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME
THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS IS BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA ONCE WE DECOUPLE AND
THE LLJ RAMPS UP...WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND THE 3Z-6Z TIME FRAME.
SOME HI RES DATA IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS DEVELOPING
AND QUICKLY SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT
COMPLETELY THROWN THIS OUT AS A POSSIBILITY...WITH DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. A LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST...WHICH AM CURRENTLY LEANING MORE ON THE SREF MUCAPE
OUTPUT WHICH IS SHOWING WEAKER INSTABILITY PRESENT BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING LIMITING MORE ROBUST CONVECTION...WITH OTHER GUIDANCE OF
COURSE ALSO VARYING TO THIS AMOUNT. SO WITH ANY PRECIP WHICH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THIS TO BE AN UNORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...HAIL/WIND. ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT OF HAIL COULD BE
OBSERVED MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN CWA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL RESIDE. EVEN IF A MORE
ORGANIZED MCS COULD DEVELOP...WOULD EXPECT IT TO FOLLOW THE HIGHER
SURFACE DEW POINT AIR AND BETTER INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD MORE THAN
LIKELY BE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS...ONCE AGAIN
KEEPING ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA.
THIS SITUATION WARRANTS CONTINUED MONITORING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION FOR THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN THE HWO.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY MID DAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF THE MORNINGS PRECIP WILL DEFINITELY PLAY
A KEY ROLE WITH MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT WAA ADVECTING
A WARMER AIR MASS OVERHEAD. AS SURFACE WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...IT WILL ACTUALLY
BEGIN TO RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT WITH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR WORKING
ITS WAY BACK WEST ACROSS THE CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SO OUTSIDE OF PRECIP TRENDS POSSIBLY AFFECTING TEMP
TRENDS SUNDAY...PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVEMENT WILL BE
KEY IN DEFINING MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. DID BRING DOWN TEMPS A TAD
FROM GOING FORECAST BUT HAVE KEPT THE WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA WARMER
THAN THE EAST WITH AREAS STILL TO POSSIBLY REACH THE 80 MARK...AND
AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TO REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH 60S
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
BETTER FOCUS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD PROVIDE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING RATHER WEAK. THIS WEAK FLOW COINCIDING WITH A
FORECASTED CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN US
WILL PROVIDE A TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH THE ANTICIPATION FOR GUIDANCE TO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
PLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES AND INEVITABLE PRECIP.
ALTHOUGH...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE BETTER CHANCES FOR OBSERVING
CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER FORCING AS WELL AS INSTABILITY
LOOK TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATING BETTER CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
NOT GONE OVERLY EXCITED WITH POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE
ECMWF REMAINS THE OUTLIER KEEPING A SURFACE LOW AND FORCING/PRECIP
OFF TO THE WEST FOR MOST OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE
TO COME INTO FRUITION...THAN DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD BE OBSERVED
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* COVERAGE/TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
* WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING/MID-DAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 1500-2000 FT LATE MORNING
TO MID-AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
INITIAL CONCERN THIS MORNING IS WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO AFFECT TERMINALS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST IA IS SLOWLY
PROPAGATING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WOULD LIKELY SKIRT SOUTH OF
TERMINALS LATER THIS AM. NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO OCCUR ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
HOWEVER...AND SEVERAL HIGH RES EXPLICIT CONVECTION MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO FAR NORTHERN IL TOWARD
09-10Z. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED A BRIEF TEMPO MENTION FOR TS
WITH SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR EXTRAPOLATION
PARTICULARLY FOR KRFD.
ONCE MORNING STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...NEXT CONCERN IS WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WIND SHIFT BY VERY LATE
MORNING/MID-DAY AS WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES EAST AND REINFORCING
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
MOIST LAYER 1500-2000 FT IN COOL ADVECTION BENEATH INVERSION
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH DRYING TAKES PLACE BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON TO SCATTER CLOUDS.
WINDS...SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THEN SAGS THROUGH WITH SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
BY LATE MORNING OR SO...WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE IN DEEPER
MIXING WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TRACON AIRSPACE...BUT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACT ON INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PERIOD OF 1500-2000 FT CIGS LATE MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE TSRA MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE SHRA EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
115 PM CDT
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE MI
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH AS THIS OCCURS...TURNING
WINDS NORTHERLY ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF IL AND IN DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PREVAIL ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN BACK SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...INCLUDING POSSIBLY IN THE
ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE AREAS. BEHIND THE LOW PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SWING BACK NORTHERLY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW
DUE TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH COULD MEANDER
CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS. OVERALL AT THIS
TIME...NO LONG-LIVED GUSTY OR HIGH WAVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
745 PM EDT MON APR 2 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THIS TAF PACKAGE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE. EXPECT THIS FOR MOST OF
EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS BEFORE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE WEST
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THIS
BOUNDARY WITH THETA E ADVECTION INCREASING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND POTENTIAL FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER
NORTHERN IL OR WI LATE. FLOW WOULD BRING ANY DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR AREA WITH KSBN BEING CLOSEST TO FORCING AND POSSIBLE TSRA.
KEPT VCTS AND CB MENTION THERE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CB MENTION AT
KFWA WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY PASSES SHOULD SEE A
DRY REMAINDER OF MORNING AND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE OVER AREA AND WARM CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. SOME POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR TSRA INCLUSION IN THIS PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
CHANCES OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERNS.
FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASING IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH MID
LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO. SOME LOWER BASED CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG A LINE FROM NORTHWEST ILLINOIS INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WHICH SEEM TO CORRELATE WELL WITH RUC 900/850 HPA LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING WITH INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATER THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOT DEPICTING ANY
IMMEDIATE SHORT WAVES OF CONSEQUENCE FOR THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT BUT
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO FAR NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PERHAPS A BIT MORE DELAYED IN THE
LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. SEE LITTLE TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT AT THIS POINT WITH MID CHANCE POPS NORTH AND LOW CHANCE
POPS SOUTH...WITH THE HIGHER TSRA POPS LINING UP BETTER WITH 850 HPA
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA AFTER 06Z AS STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION SPREADS FROM
WEST TO EAST.
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT DOES POSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. TAKING A
900 HPA BASED PARCEL FROM 12Z NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS YIELDS BETWEEN
1000-1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AFTER 06Z. 12Z GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS
REMAIN A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND MID
LEVEL WARM LAYER THAT WOULD RESULT IN LESSER INSTABILITY THAN
INDICATED BY THE NAM. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR THESE ELEVATED PARCELS
SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/SEVERE THREAT. PREVIOUS
FORECAST IDEA OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT STILL SEEMS IN
ORDER...BUT SHIFTED A BIT LATER AFTER 06Z BASED ON TREND OF SLIGHTLY
SLOWER MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE AREA.
LINGERING ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. A CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED VORT MAX ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO MID MS RVR VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW FOR LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CAPPING
CONCERNS. THUS...HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON TSRA POPS AND MAINTAINED
HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE FORCING FROM THIS VORT MAX WILL
LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
TO BE FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS ANOTHER SOUTHERN CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE PROVIDES IMPETUS FOR SFC LOW/FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO TO STRENGTHEN AS
STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO CONTINUED MARGINAL TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILES. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT MOST
IF NOT ALL OF FORECAST AREA WILL GET INTO WARM SECTOR AGAIN BEFORE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RECORD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR FORT WAYNE AND SOUTH BEND COULD ONCE
AGAIN BE AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM PERIOD IS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND FROST
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE REGION BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER PANHANDLE REGION WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT PATCHY FROST MENTION IN
THE NE PORTION OF THE FA...BUT INCREASED GRADIENT OF LOW TEMPS FROM
NE TO SW AS CUTOFF LOW AND AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY PASS JUST SOUTH
OF THE FA.
CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. 12Z GFS INDICATED PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR SW
PORTIONS OF THE FA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS 12Z GFS RUN OPENS LOW INTO POSITIVELY
TILTED WAVE QUICKER AND DIVES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THAN PREVIOUS
RUN...MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z ECMWF. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OVERHEAD. KEPT THE AREAS OF FROST MENTION IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREAS
AS PREVIOUS FCST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PD OVER THE NEXT FEW
FORECASTS WITH POSSIBLE NEED FOR HEADLINES...WITH LOWS NEARING 32-33
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA.
SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS GREAT LAKES AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE COOLER WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AND SLOWLY MODERATING AIRMASS. KEPT PATCHY FROST
MENTION IN FCST FRI NIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF FA AND
LIGHTER WINDS. SATURDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARM WITH UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA AND SFC HIGH EAST...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WAA. RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST/ALLBLEND.
NEXT PRECIP CHANCES RETURN SAT NIGHT/SUN AS DEEPENING SFC
LOW/EJECTING WRN CONUS TROF ENERGY ACROSS NRN TIER BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT POPS CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE AS BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...LASHLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
401 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD AND DRY THE WEATHER
OUT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH AND STALL OUT AND BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE UPPER RIDGING WILL DRY THINGS
OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST WITH ONLY FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES STILL UNDERNEATH THE DECK. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. QUITE A RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
EXISTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 00Z...FROM MID 40S OVER THE
NORTHEAST WHERE SKIES HAD BEEN CLOUDY ALL DAY TO MID 60S IN THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRESENCE OF A 35KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS. STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
POTENTIALLY MIGRATE INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE CHOSEN TO EXPAND LOW CHANCE POPS TO ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEST OF A KOKOMO TO INDY METRO TO TERRE HAUTE LINE
BETWEEN 09-12Z. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION ARRIVING INTO THESE AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WHILE STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME THEY ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE...
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBS...AND
ADJUSTED TIMING AS LOWS LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 06 AND 08Z
BEFORE ANY STORMS ARRIVE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SHORT TERM SO WILL USE A
CONSENSUS GENERALLY...BUT THOUGHT EARLY ON THE NAM WAS A LITTLE
OVERZEALOUS IN POPS AND PRECIP ARRIVAL WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM SO
THERE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF/SREFS. COULD HAVE AN MCS
ARRIVING IN THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT SUNDAY. VERY WEAK UPPER
FORCING WITH A LITTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD BE GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SO THAT MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 OR SO WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SHEAR /BOTH
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED/ WILL BE AVAILABLE AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THUS THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR THAT TIME. ALSO HAVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8C SO EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO BE
LARGE HAIL.
LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH 3Z AS SYSTEM IS MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN AND KEPT POPS OUT
THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS SURFACE LOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS
WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER FORCING AVAILABLE. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH
THIS...WITH HIGHER CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER THE
AREA.
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...AND COULD SEE A
DECENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR LOWS WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN A CONSENSUS BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND FOR MONDAY
NIGHT STUCK NEAR THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EUROPEAN MODEL BECOMES MUCH COLDER THAN GFS AT 850 MILLIBARS LATE
IN PERIOD. OVERALL EUROPEAN MORE CONSISTENT WITH CANADIAN AND
BRITISH MODELS IN DEVELOPING A VORTEX OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THAT
WILL DRAW RELATIVELY CHILLY AIR INTO INDIANA.
FORTUNATELY...ALL BLEND MODEL SEEMS TO CAPTURE THIS
FAIRLY WELL WITH HIGHS LOWER 60S AND LOWS LOWER 40S LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DID NOT SEE NEED TO CHANGE ALL BLEND INITIALIZATION.
ALTHOUGH EUROPEAN AND GFS MUCH DIFFERENT IN STRENGTH...THEIR PHASE
IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT. WHILE THIS RESULTS IN BIG DIFFERENCES FOR
TEMPERATURES...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION APT TO BE CLOSER. ALL BLEND
SEEMS TO CAPTURE THIS WITH QUITE LOW POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN
PARTICULAR. NO NEED TO CHANGE INITIALIZATION MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010900Z TAF UPDATE/...
EARLIER FORECAST ON TRACK OVERALL...BUT TUNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
PRECISE TIMING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AND NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE EXACT CONDITIONS AT ANY ONE
TERMINAL COULD CHANGE GREATLY OVER SHORT PERIODS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z...THEN EXPECT A
RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
AREA OF TSRA ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SITES. QUESTIONS ARISE IN HOW WELL THEY WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AS UPPER SUPPORT WILL FIGHT WITH POOR INSTABILITY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND CB
MENTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TSRA EVOLUTION.
TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHORT TIME IN TAFS.
TSRA THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM TSRA...BUT EXPECT BKN CU TO DEVELOP IF
THERE IS SUNSHINE. THUS JUST KEPT BKN060 DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THAT IS
TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
317 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD AND DRY THE WEATHER
OUT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH AND STALL OUT AND BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE UPPER RIDGING WILL DRY THINGS
OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST WITH ONLY FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES STILL UNDERNEATH THE DECK. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. QUITE A RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
EXISTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 00Z...FROM MID 40S OVER THE
NORTHEAST WHERE SKIES HAD BEEN CLOUDY ALL DAY TO MID 60S IN THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRESENCE OF A 35KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS. STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
POTENTIALLY MIGRATE INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE CHOSEN TO EXPAND LOW CHANCE POPS TO ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEST OF A KOKOMO TO INDY METRO TO TERRE HAUTE LINE
BETWEEN 09-12Z. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION ARRIVING INTO THESE AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WHILE STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME THEY ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE...
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBS...AND
ADJUSTED TIMING AS LOWS LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 06 AND 08Z
BEFORE ANY STORMS ARRIVE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SHORT TERM SO WILL USE A
CONSENSUS GENERALLY...BUT THOUGHT EARLY ON THE NAM WAS A LITTLE
OVERZEALOUS IN POPS AND PRECIP ARRIVAL WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM SO
THERE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF/SREFS. COULD HAVE AN MCS
ARRIVING IN THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT SUNDAY. VERY WEAK UPPER
FORCING WITH A LITTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD BE GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SO THAT MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 OR SO WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SHEAR /BOTH
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED/ WILL BE AVAILABLE AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THUS THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR THAT TIME. ALSO HAVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8C SO EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO BE
LARGE HAIL.
LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH 3Z AS SYSTEM IS MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN AND KEPT POPS OUT
THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS SURFACE LOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS
WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER FORCING AVAILABLE. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH
THIS...WITH HIGHER CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER THE
AREA.
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...AND COULD SEE A
DECENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR LOWS WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN A CONSENSUS BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND FOR MONDAY
NIGHT STUCK NEAR THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EUROPEAN MODEL BECOMES MUCH COLDER THAN GFS AT 850 MILLIBARS LATE
IN PERIOD. OVERALL EUROPEAN MORE CONSISTENT WITH CANADIAN AND
BRITISH MODELS IN DEVELOPING A VORTEX OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THAT
WILL DRAW RELATIVELY CHILLY AIR INTO INDIANA.
FORTUNATELY...ALL BLEND MODEL SEEMS TO CAPTURE THIS
FAIRLY WELL WITH HIGHS LOWER 60S AND LOWS LOWER 40S LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DID NOT SEE NEED TO CHANGE ALL BLEND INITIALIZATION.
ALTHOUGH EUROPEAN AND GFS MUCH DIFFERENT IN STRENGTH...THEIR PHASE
IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT. WHILE THIS RESULTS IN BIG DIFFERENCES FOR
TEMPERATURES...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION APT TO BE CLOSER. ALL BLEND
SEEMS TO CAPTURE THIS WITH QUITE LOW POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN
PARTICULAR. NO NEED TO CHANGE INITIALIZATION MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/...
MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OR TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z...THEN EXPECT A
RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
AREA OF TSRA ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SITES. QUESTIONS ARISE IN HOW WELL THEY WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AS UPPER SUPPORT WILL FIGHT WITH POOR INSTABILITY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND CB
MENTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TSRA EVOLUTION. AT
THE MOMENT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
TSRA/FOG THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM TSRA...BUT EXPECT BKN CU TO DEVELOP IF
THERE IS SUNSHINE. THUS JUST KEPT BKN060 DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THAT IS TOO
FAR OUT TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...50/JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1245 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD AND DRY THE WEATHER
OUT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH AND STALL OUT AND BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE UPPER RIDGING WILL DRY THINGS
OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST WITH ONLY FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES STILL UNDERNEATH THE DECK. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. QUITE A RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
EXISTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 00Z...FROM MID 40S OVER THE
NORTHEAST WHERE SKIES HAD BEEN CLOUDY ALL DAY TO MID 60S IN THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRESENCE OF A 35KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS. STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
POTENTIALLY MIGRATE INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE CHOSEN TO EXPAND LOW CHANCE POPS TO ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEST OF A KOKOMO TO INDY METRO TO TERRE HAUTE LINE
BETWEEN 09-12Z. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION ARRIVING INTO THESE AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WHILE STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME THEY ARRIVE IN
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE...
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBS...AND
ADJUSTED TIMING AS LOWS LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 06 AND 08Z
BEFORE ANY STORMS ARRIVE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SHORT TERM SO WILL USE A
CONSENSUS GENERALLY...BUT THOUGHT EARLY ON THE NAM WAS A LITTLE
OVERZEALOUS IN POPS AND PRECIP ARRIVAL WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM SO
THERE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF/SREFS. COULD HAVE AN MCS
ARRIVING IN THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT SUNDAY. VERY WEAK UPPER
FORCING WITH A LITTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD BE GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SO THAT MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 OR SO WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SHEAR /BOTH
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED/ WILL BE AVAILABLE AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THUS THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR THAT TIME. ALSO HAVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8C SO EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO BE
LARGE HAIL.
LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH 3Z AS SYSTEM IS MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN AND KEPT POPS OUT
THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS SURFACE LOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS
WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER FORCING AVAILABLE. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH
THIS...WITH HIGHER CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER THE
AREA.
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...AND COULD SEE A
DECENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR LOWS WENT A BIT
WARMER THAN A CONSENSUS BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND FOR MONDAY
NIGHT STUCK NEAR THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENSEMBLES IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED
TO BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS CUTTING
THIS SYSTEM OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...AND TODAY THE MAJORITY OF
THE ENSEMBLES POINT IN THIS DIRECTION...WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
CUTOFF AFFECTING THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO CUTOFF LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AT THIS TIME WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING THROUGH...
ALTHOUGH SOME ENSEMBLES BRING A PRECIPITATION THREAT BACK INTO THE
AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO ADD POPS TO NEXT WEEKEND AT A
LATER TIME IF FUTURE TRENDS POINT IN THAT DIRECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/...
MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OR TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z...THEN EXPECT A
RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
AREA OF TSRA ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SITES. QUESTIONS ARISE IN HOW WELL THEY WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AS UPPER SUPPORT WILL FIGHT WITH POOR INSTABILITY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND CB
MENTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TSRA EVOLUTION. AT
THE MOMENT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
TSRA/FOG THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM TSRA...BUT EXPECT BKN CU TO DEVELOP IF
THERE IS SUNSHINE. THUS JUST KEPT BKN060 DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THAT IS TOO
FAR OUT TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50/JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
945 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
AT 0330Z RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 40 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT ALLOWED WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 45 MPH ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 20 HOUR OR SO IS PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGHEST POPS/QPF AND SNOW.
GENERALLY THINKING IS FOR CURRENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTH BRINGING AN END TO THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION (EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE AREA) BY SUNRISE.
FLAGLER CURRENT TEMP IS 37...NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT RUC LOWER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 30S BY SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SNOW VS ANY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. HOW FAR EAST THESE COLDER
TEMPERATURES GET IS THE BIG QUESTION AS THE NAM PUSHES THEM AS FAR
EAST AS THE CO/KS BORDER WHILE THE HRRR IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST
AND THE SREF FURTHER WEST TOWARD SEIBERT. RIGHT NOW ONLY HAVE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES CONFINED TO THE FLAGLER AREA AND
MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR JUST HOW FAR EAST THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES GET. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED HWO TO MENTION
THE ACCUMULATION POSSIBILITIES.
FOR TUESDAY LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS WE WILL
BE UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. 00Z NAM/21Z SREF/00Z MET AND 18Z
MAV 3 HOUR TEMPERATURES ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO
THE MID 40S AND LOW 50S EAST OF THE BORDER.
SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA
TO COLBY AND GOVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20-25 MPH. THIS WILL PUT THEM
INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA BY 01Z IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
CANT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SO UPDATED TO INCLUDE SOME
THUNDER MENTION.
OTHER CHANGES WERE TO BEEF UP THE CLOUDINESS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHER CHANGES TO BE MADE LATER AS 00Z MODEL DATA COMES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
PLAN TO LET THE WIND ADVISORY GO TO EXPIRATION AT 03Z. THIS SHOULD
WORK OUT WELL SINCE HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DECREASE. THE NAM MIXED
LAYER WINDS INDICATE THAT THEY FALL AT OR JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AT 03Z. THE GFS MIXED LAYER WIND KEEPS IT WINDY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS PROBABLY AN OUTLIER SINCE THE
TREND FOR WINDS IN THAT PART OF THE AREA IS SIMILAR TO THE REST OF
THE FA. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE
ADVISORY SHOULD BE EXTENDED IN TIME.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SINCE THE MODELS
DO NOT HAVE THE LOW AS FAR SOUTH AS ITS ACTUAL POSITION ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. NEVERTHELESS HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW HAS MORE TIME TO MOVE NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE IN EASTERN COLORADO FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. THE
NAM SHOWS A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
FOR TUESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FA SO WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GET DOWN TO 32 IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FROM
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER 40S IN MCK AND HLC. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CLOSED LOW AND PRECIP. CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. NOTICED THE 0Z ECMWF AND
LATEST NAM/SREF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...AM CONCERNED THE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE
CLOSED LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BASED MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WITH THE CLOSED LOW BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE
MODELS HAVE...AM THINKING IT WILL LIFT FURTHER EAST THAN WHAT THE
NAM/SREF/ECMWF HAVE. AS SUCH WILL TRENDED HIGHER POPS FURTHER EAST
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BASED ON ABOVE CONCERNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE LEFT EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS THE
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES. OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DEEP
LIFTING SETS UP AND A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS. AS THE CLOSED
LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THE LIFT FOLLOWS. TRENDED POPS IN
THE SAME DIRECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST CERTAINTY WILL
BE WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE WEST WHERE THE I AM MORE UNCERTAIN
THAT THE LIFT WILL DEVELOP BE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. AREAS OF
EASTERN COLORADO MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DIP TO THE FREEZING POINT. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER SREF PRECIP. TYPE FIELDS ONLY SHOW A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
WILL JUST MENTION THE RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY ISENTROPIC LIFT DWINDLES TOWARD THE WEST AS THE CLOSED LOW
DEPARTS. HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE THE FORCING
FOR LIFT IS BEST WITH CHANCES DECLINING TO THE WEST. THROUGH THE
DAY PRECIP. CHANCES DECLINE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH THE PRECIP. CHANCES COMING TO AN END
OVER THE FAR EAST BY EARLY EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS...A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH
WILL CONVERGE OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RUC IS HANDLING
THE CLOUDS FAIRLY WELL SO HAVE USED THIS MODEL AS WELL AS THE HRRR
CONCERNING THE PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS
IN THE 02-04Z RANGE WITH PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AROUND 03Z AT
KGLD AND 08Z AT KMCK. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF POSSIBLE IFR AT
KGLD AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
END AROUND 12Z AT KMCK THEN HOLD OFF AGAIN UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM....JTL
AVIATION...BAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20-25 MPH. THIS WILL PUT THEM
INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA BY 01Z IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
CANT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SO UPDATED TO INCLUDE SOME
THUNDER MENTION.
OTHER CHANGES WERE TO BEEF UP THE CLOUDINESS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHER CHANGES TO BE MADE LATER AS 00Z MODEL DATA COMES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
PLAN TO LET THE WIND ADVISORY GO TO EXPIRATION AT 03Z. THIS SHOULD
WORK OUT WELL SINCE HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DECREASE. THE NAM MIXED
LAYER WINDS INDICATE THAT THEY FALL AT OR JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AT 03Z. THE GFS MIXED LAYER WIND KEEPS IT WINDY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS PROBABLY AN OUTLIER SINCE THE
TREND FOR WINDS IN THAT PART OF THE AREA IS SIMILAR TO THE REST OF
THE FA. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE
ADVISORY SHOULD BE EXTENDED IN TIME.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SINCE THE MODELS
DO NOT HAVE THE LOW AS FAR SOUTH AS ITS ACTUAL POSITION ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. NEVERTHELESS HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW HAS MORE TIME TO MOVE NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE IN EASTERN COLORADO FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. THE
NAM SHOWS A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
FOR TUESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FA SO WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GET DOWN TO 32 IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FROM
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER 40S IN MCK AND HLC. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CLOSED LOW AND PRECIP. CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. NOTICED THE 0Z ECMWF AND
LATEST NAM/SREF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...AM CONCERNED THE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE
CLOSED LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BASED MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WITH THE CLOSED LOW BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE
MODELS HAVE...AM THINKING IT WILL LIFT FURTHER EAST THAN WHAT THE
NAM/SREF/ECMWF HAVE. AS SUCH WILL TRENDED HIGHER POPS FURTHER EAST
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BASED ON ABOVE CONCERNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE LEFT EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS THE
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES. OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DEEP
LIFTING SETS UP AND A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS. AS THE CLOSED
LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THE LIFT FOLLOWS. TRENDED POPS IN
THE SAME DIRECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST CERTAINTY WILL
BE WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE WEST WHERE THE I AM MORE UNCERTAIN
THAT THE LIFT WILL DEVELOP BE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. AREAS OF
EASTERN COLORADO MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DIP TO THE FREEZING POINT. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER SREF PRECIP. TYPE FIELDS ONLY SHOW A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
WILL JUST MENTION THE RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY ISENTROPIC LIFT DWINDLES TOWARD THE WEST AS THE CLOSED LOW
DEPARTS. HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE THE FORCING
FOR LIFT IS BEST WITH CHANCES DECLINING TO THE WEST. THROUGH THE
DAY PRECIP. CHANCES DECLINE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH THE PRECIP. CHANCES COMING TO AN END
OVER THE FAR EAST BY EARLY EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS...A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH
WILL CONVERGE OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RUC IS HANDLING
THE CLOUDS FAIRLY WELL SO HAVE USED THIS MODEL AS WELL AS THE HRRR
CONCERNING THE PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS
IN THE 02-04Z RANGE WITH PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AROUND 03Z AT
KGLD AND 08Z AT KMCK. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF POSSIBLE IFR AT
KGLD AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
END AROUND 12Z AT KMCK THEN HOLD OFF AGAIN UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM....JTL
AVIATION...BAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
611 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
THE APRIL 1 2012 00Z 300 HPA SYNOPTIC MAP SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVED JET EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A JET STREAK OF AROUND 130-140 KT WAS OBSERVED FROM
KREV TO KBOI. AT 500 HPA, AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
STREAK WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 500 HPA DELTA TEMPERATURES AROUND
10 DEG C WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS. MORE LOCALLY AND AT LOWER LEVELS, A WARM AND DRY PLUME
AT 700 AND 850 HPA PREVAILED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC, A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WELL.
THIS MORNING:
AS WITH LAST NIGHT, HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR GUIDANCE IN CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING
WELL AS SITES AROUND KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN REPORTING BR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. I DID, HOWEVER, TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
AS FAR AS DENSE FOG IS CONCERNED AND STUCK WITH PATCHY RATHER THAN +FG
AS THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL FOG INTENSITY. RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE AND RUC VIS OUTPUT SEEMS
TO AGREE WITH THIS APPROACH AS WELL. FOG CONCERNS WILL BE OVER BY MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
TODAY:
UNPLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. I SAY UNPLEASANT
BECAUSE IT WILL FEEL DOWN RIGHT "HOT" RELATIVE TO THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.
I DID TAKE THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE AS BOISE VERIFICATION STILL
SHOWS A WARM BIAS FROM THE MODELS. ONE REASON AS SUGGESTED FROM YESTERDAYS
DAY SHIFT IS THAT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM A RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS SLOWING DOWN HEAT FLUXES. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING AROUND
60 DEG F THIS MORNING SO THE ATMOSPHERE DOES HAVE SOME MOISTURE WHICH
WILL RETARD SENSIBLE HEATING. THESE DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER AS THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG
THE DRYLINE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES AND SUBSIDE PREVAILS AHEAD
OF A WESTERN TROUGH. SOME RECORDS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY WHICH HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WINDS. THE 00Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH 850
HPA WINDS COMPARED TO THE 00Z NAM. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WELL MIXED
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE, HOWEVER WINDS PER THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND USING MIX DOWN TECHNIQUES SHOWS THAT
A MARGINAL OR SUB MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY. AS A RESULT, DID
NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY.
LASTLY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH IS
ADDRESSED BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
TONIGHT:
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S DEG F
WEST TO 50S DEG F EAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS DYNAMICS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AS DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
MODELS THIS MORNING REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QUICKLY MOVING
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 06Z MONDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THEN DEEPENS AS IT CROSSES NEW MEXICO DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY 00Z TUESDAY THE GFS, ECMWF, AND NAM ALL
PLACE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AHEAD OF
THIS DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND BASED ON THE GFS
AND NAM THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS THIS
MORNING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS COLD FRONT LATE DAY DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF
THIS FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTION LATE DAY DOES APPEAR
REASONABLE GIVEN THE MOISTURE RETURN FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR KEEPING A MENTION OF LATE DAY STORMS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 21Z. DECENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AT
00Z TUESDAY AND CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG.
MARGINAL SHEAR HOWEVER IS EXPECTED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AT OR BELOW
30KTS. STILL GIVEN SOME LATE DAY HEATING AND IMPROVING FORCING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DO THINK A FEW STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS FRONT LATE DAY MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE
BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THIS COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO USHER
IN SOME COOLER AIR LATE IN THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LOWER 80S STILL APPEAR LIKELY.
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES FROM
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOISTURE AND
LIFT (WARM AIR ADVECTION, ISENTROPIC LIFT, 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS) CONTINUES SO HAVE THEREFORE RAISE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FALL BACK TO NEAR FREEZING IF SKIES
CLEAR QUICK ENOUGH AND WIND GO LIGHT BUT GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUES
OF THE UPPER LOW HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO LATEST ALLBLEND.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST OUT INTO
THE PLAINS AND WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW IMPROVES
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
AREAS OF LOW IFR STATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS WAS
OCCURRING EAST OF A DRYLINE WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. THE NAM/RUC WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DRYLINE QUICKLY
MOVING EAST TODAY. WHAT STATUS/FOG THAT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND
14Z AT DDC AND GCK WILL QUICKLY ERODE AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPS. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DECREASE
BACK INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE AND BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFO`S, HAVE CONTINUED THE RFW TODAY
AND ADDED CLARK COUNTY IN. THE EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES IS A BIT MARGINAL
AS RH`S WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 17 PERCENT RANGE. DECIDED TO ERROR ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION AND KEEP THE COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AS TODAYS HIGHS
WILL BE VERY WARM AND THE MODELS TYPICALLY UNDER FORECAST DEWPOINTS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIXING DRYLINE AND ADIABATIC COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
A VERY ANOMALOUS DAY OF EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY.
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES IS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN TODAY.
CLIMATE RECORDS IS AS FOLLOWS:
RECORD (YEAR)..........................FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY
DODGE CITY: 88 (1940, 1964)............89
MEDICINE LODGE: 93 (1946)..............86
GARDEN CITY: 87 (1964).................90
ELKHART 89 (1946)......................90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 89 52 71 41 / 0 10 10 60
GCK 90 50 68 40 / 0 10 10 60
EHA 90 49 63 38 / 0 10 20 50
LBL 90 50 68 40 / 0 10 20 60
HYS 88 54 70 41 / 0 10 10 50
P28 86 57 79 51 / 0 10 40 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM....BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
337 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT:
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERTURES ARE EXPECTED WITH FORECAST MAXES
GETTING CLOSE TO RECORDS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. ANTICIPATE LOW
CLOUDS WILL THIN/ERODE BY MIDDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON WARMER
MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS/BIASES FROM YESTERDAY. FAIR AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN SHORT TERM MODELS/MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS WITH WIND SPEEDS
DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 2100 UTC. LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST KS
MON-MON NIGHT:
GOING TREND OF POPS MON AFTERNOON ALONG SAGGING FRONT STILL LOOKS
ON TARGET. STILL FAIR AMOUNT OF WIGGLE ROOM WHERE BOUNDARY WILL BE
WHEN INITIATION OCCURS...AND SHADED POPS BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS.
WHILE BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. HOWEVER GIVEN PROXIMITY
TO UPPER LOW AND EFFECT OF EVEN SMALL CHANGES TO ITS TRACK...WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
MON AFTERNOON-EVENING. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED MON
NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP A BIT AND INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TUE-WED:
LATEST RUNS LESS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT WHICH
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT POPS/TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHEST ON W-NW-NE SIDE OF UPPER LOW...AND
SHADED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS. TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
TRICKY WITH COMBO OF COLD AIR ADVECTION/CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
THU-SAT:
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THIS PERIOD...VALUES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. LATEST MODELS STILL HINTING AT SOME
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON FRI NIGHT/SAT WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH
OF MOISTURE. -HOWERTON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER... DESPITE UNSEASONBALY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS ON TODAY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER RISK IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DUE TO THE EARLY SPRING
GREEN-UP.-HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS.
LEE TROUGH WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LIFR-IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY AM HOURS SUNDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN THE NAM...GFS...RUC...AND
3KM HRRR MODELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN THE
LOW STRATUS OCCURRENCE IN CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OK AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRATUS LOOKS TO BURN OFF TOWARD MIDDAY
SUNDAY. BETTER MIXING AND NEAR FULL SUNSHINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT IN SOUTHERLY GUSTS ~25 KT MOST OF THE AREA.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 85 63 80 54 / 0 0 20 60
HUTCHINSON 86 60 78 51 / 0 0 20 50
NEWTON 84 63 79 53 / 0 0 20 50
ELDORADO 84 66 82 55 / 0 0 20 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 86 65 85 57 / 0 0 20 60
RUSSELL 88 56 70 45 / 0 0 10 30
GREAT BEND 87 55 72 44 / 0 0 20 40
SALINA 87 61 76 50 / 0 0 20 40
MCPHERSON 86 61 77 50 / 0 0 20 50
COFFEYVILLE 87 68 88 62 / 0 10 10 40
CHANUTE 86 65 88 60 / 0 10 10 40
IOLA 86 65 88 59 / 0 10 10 30
PARSONS-KPPF 87 67 88 60 / 0 10 10 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
334 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE DISCUSSIONS...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
THE APRIL 1 2012 00Z 300 HPA SYNOPTIC MAP SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVED JET EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A JET STREAK OF AROUND 130-140 KT WAS OBSERVED FROM
KREV TO KBOI. AT 500 HPA, AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
STREAK WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 500 HPA DELTA TEMPERATURES AROUND
10 DEG C WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS. MORE LOCALLY AND AT LOWER LEVELS, A WARM AND DRY PLUME
AT 700 AND 850 HPA PREVAILED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC, A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WELL.
THIS MORNING:
AS WITH LAST NIGHT, HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR GUIDANCE IN CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING
WELL AS SITES AROUND KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN REPORTING BR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. I DID, HOWEVER, TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
AS FAR AS DENSE FOG IS CONCERNED AND STUCK WITH PATCHY RATHER THAN +FG
AS THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL FOG INTENSITY. RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE AND RUC VIS OUTPUT SEEMS
TO AGREE WITH THIS APPROACH AS WELL. FOG CONCERNS WILL BE OVER BY MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
TODAY:
UNPLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. I SAY UNPLEASANT
BECAUSE IT WILL FEEL DOWN RIGHT "HOT" RELATIVE TO THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.
I DID TAKE THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE AS BOISE VERIFICATION STILL
SHOWS A WARM BIAS FROM THE MODELS. ONE REASON AS SUGGESTED FROM YESTERDAYS
DAY SHIFT IS THAT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM A RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS SLOWING DOWN HEAT FLUXES. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING AROUND
60 DEG F THIS MORNING SO THE ATMOSPHERE DOES HAVE SOME MOISTURE WHICH
WILL RETARD SENSIBLE HEATING. THESE DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER AS THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG
THE DRYLINE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES AND SUBSIDE PREVAILS AHEAD
OF A WESTERN TROUGH. SOME RECORDS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY WHICH HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WINDS. THE 00Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH 850
HPA WINDS COMPARED TO THE 00Z NAM. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WELL MIXED
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE, HOWEVER WINDS PER THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND USING MIX DOWN TECHNIQUES SHOWS THAT
A MARGINAL OR SUB MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY. AS A RESULT, DID
NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY.
LASTLY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH IS
ADDRESSED BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
TONIGHT:
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S DEG F
WEST TO 50S DEG F EAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS DYNAMICS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AS DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
MODELS THIS MORNING REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QUICKLY MOVING
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 06Z MONDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THEN DEEPENS AS IT CROSSES NEW MEXICO DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY 00Z TUESDAY THE GFS, ECMWF, AND NAM ALL
PLACE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AHEAD OF
THIS DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND BASED ON THE GFS
AND NAM THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS THIS
MORNING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS COLD FRONT LATE DAY DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF
THIS FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTION LATE DAY DOES APPEAR
REASONABLE GIVEN THE MOISTURE RETURN FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR KEEPING A MENTION OF LATE DAY STORMS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 21Z. DECENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AT
00Z TUESDAY AND CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG.
MARGINAL SHEAR HOWEVER IS EXPECTED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AT OR BELOW
30KTS. STILL GIVEN SOME LATE DAY HEATING AND IMPROVING FORCING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DO THINK A FEW STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS FRONT LATE DAY MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE
BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THIS COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO USHER
IN SOME COOLER AIR LATE IN THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LOWER 80S STILL APPEAR LIKELY.
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES FROM
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOISTURE AND
LIFT (WARM AIR ADVECTION, ISENTROPIC LIFT, 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS) CONTINUES SO HAVE THEREFORE RAISE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FALL BACK TO NEAR FREEZING IF SKIES
CLEAR QUICK ENOUGH AND WIND GO LIGHT BUT GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUES
OF THE UPPER LOW HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO LATEST ALLBLEND.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST OUT INTO
THE PLAINS AND WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW IMPROVES
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
TWO CONCERNS FOR THE 06Z TAFS. FOG AND WINDS. THE 01/02Z HRRR IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MORNING. THIS MODEL WAS FAIRLY ACCURATE LAST NIGHT ALTHOUGH A LITTLE
TOO LOW ON VIS. THE RUC ALSO SHOWS LOWERED VIS GENERALLY IN THE SAME
AREA. DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS BUT HAVE LOWERED CIGS
FROM VFR TO MVFR TO START OUT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE THE HRRR
OVERDID IT LAST NIGHT. SECOND CONCERN IS WINDS. HAVE INCREASED SW WINDS
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT AS THE LEE SFC TROUGH STRENGTHENS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFO`S, HAVE CONTINUED THE RFW TODAY
AND ADDED CLARK COUNTY IN. THE EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES IS A BIT MARGINAL
AS RH`S WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 17 PERCENT RANGE. DECIDED TO ERROR ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION AND KEEP THE COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AS TODAYS HIGHS
WILL BE VERY WARM AND THE MODELS TYPICALLY UNDER FORECAST DEWPOINTS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIXING DRYLINE AND ADIABATIC COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
A VERY ANOMALOUS DAY OF EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY.
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES IS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN TODAY.
CLIMATE RECORDS IS AS FOLLOWS:
RECORD (YEAR)..........................FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY
DODGE CITY: 88 (1940, 1964)............89
MEDICINE LODGE: 93 (1946)..............86
GARDEN CITY: 87 (1964).................90
ELKHART 89 (1946)......................90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 89 52 74 41 / 0 10 10 60
GCK 90 50 69 40 / 0 10 10 50
EHA 90 49 66 38 / 0 10 20 50
LBL 90 50 71 40 / 0 10 20 50
HYS 88 54 72 41 / 0 10 10 50
P28 86 57 82 51 / 0 10 40 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM....BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN
CLIMATE...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
333 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE DISCUSSIONS...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
THE APRIL 1 2012 00Z 300 HPA SYNOPTIC MAP SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVED JET EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A JET STREAK OF AROUND 130-140 KT WAS OBSERVED FROM
KREV TO KBOI. AT 500 HPA, AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
STREAK WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 500 HPA DELTA TEMPERATURES AROUND
10 DEG C WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS. MORE LOCALLY AND AT LOWER LEVELS, A WARM AND DRY PLUME
AT 700 AND 850 HPA PREVAILED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC, A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WELL.
THIS MORNING:
AS WITH LAST NIGHT, HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR GUIDANCE IN CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING
WELL AS SITES AROUND KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN REPORTING BR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. I DID, HOWEVER, TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
AS FAR AS DENSE FOG IS CONCERNED AND STUCK WITH PATCHY RATHER THAN +FG
AS THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL FOG INTENSITY. RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE AND RUC VIS OUTPUT SEEMS
TO AGREE WITH THIS APPROACH AS WELL. FOG CONCERNS WILL BE OVER BY MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
TODAY:
UNPLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. I SAY UNPLEASANT
BECAUSE IT WILL FEEL DOWN RIGHT "HOT" RELATIVE TO THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.
I DID TAKE THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE AS BOISE VERIFICATION STILL
SHOWS A WARM BIAS FROM THE MODELS. ONE REASON AS SUGGESTED FROM YESTERDAYS
DAY SHIFT IS THAT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM A RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS SLOWING DOWN HEAT FLUXES. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING AROUND
60 DEG F THIS MORNING SO THE ATMOSPHERE DOES HAVE SOME MOISTURE WHICH
WILL RETARD SENSIBLE HEATING. THESE DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER AS THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG
THE DRYLINE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES AND SUBSIDE PREVAILS AHEAD
OF A WESTERN TROUGH. SOME RECORDS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY WHICH HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WINDS. THE 00Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH 850
HPA WINDS COMPARED TO THE 00Z NAM. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WELL MIXED
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE, HOWEVER WINDS PER THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND USING MIX DOWN TECHNIQUES SHOWS THAT
A MARGINAL OR SUB MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY. AS A RESULT, DID
NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY.
LASTLY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH IS
ADDRESSED BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
TONIGHT:
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S DEG F
WEST TO 50S DEG F EAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS DYNAMICS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AS DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012
ON MONDAY AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO GET CUTOFF
AT THE BASE JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SURGE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY MORNING, THEN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY EVENING TO NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. PREFER THE
FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT OF THE NAM/GFS THAN THE ECMWF BECAUSE OF
THE STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, MAINLY EAST OF LINE FROM COLDWATER TO SAINT JOHN.
IF STORMS FORM A FEW COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER IF THE
FRONT DELAYS THE STORMS COULD BE STRONGER NEAR A COLD FRONT
AND DRYLINE INTERSECTION. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOWS WILL BE
MILD AND INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST AND MID 50S SOUTHEAST FA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTHWEST TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S SOUTHEAST FA.
FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE GEM AND THE
ECMWF ARE A BIT FASTER WITH THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GFS. RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME ELEVATED
CAPE WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM LARNED TO ASHLAND. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S WEST TO NEAR 50 EAST FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 50 IN THE FAR WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR EAST FA.
ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. LOWS IN MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S FAR WEST TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO AROUND 60 NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. TOTAL RAINFALL
COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO OVER ONE HALF INCH WITH THE
HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FA FROM LARNED TO ASHLAND.
FOR THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS WITH A WARM UP BACK INTO THE 70S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY PUSHING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
SATURDAY TO AROUND 70. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
TWO CONCERNS FOR THE 06Z TAFS. FOG AND WINDS. THE 01/02Z HRRR IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MORNING. THIS MODEL WAS FAIRLY ACCURATE LAST NIGHT ALTHOUGH A LITTLE
TOO LOW ON VIS. THE RUC ALSO SHOWS LOWERED VIS GENERALLY IN THE SAME
AREA. DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS BUT HAVE LOWERED CIGS
FROM VFR TO MVFR TO START OUT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE THE HRRR
OVERDID IT LAST NIGHT. SECOND CONCERN IS WINDS. HAVE INCREASED SW WINDS
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT AS THE LEE SFC TROUGH STRENGTHENS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFO`S, HAVE CONTINUED THE RFW TODAY
AND ADDED CLARK COUNTY IN. THE EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES IS A BIT MARGINAL
AS RH`S WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 17 PERCENT RANGE. DECIDED TO ERROR ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION AND KEEP THE COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AS TODAYS HIGHS
WILL BE VERY WARM AND THE MODELS TYPICALLY UNDER FORECAST DEWPOINTS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIXING DRYLINE AND ADIABATIC COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
A VERY ANOMALOUS DAY OF EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY.
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES IS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN TODAY.
CLIMATE RECORDS IS AS FOLLOWS:
RECORD (YEAR)..........................FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY
DODGE CITY: 88 (1940, 1964)............89
MEDICINE LODGE: 93 (1946)..............86
GARDEN CITY: 87 (1964).................90
ELKHART 89 (1946)......................90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 89 52 74 41 / 0 10 10 60
GCK 90 50 69 40 / 0 10 10 50
EHA 90 49 66 38 / 0 10 20 50
LBL 90 50 71 40 / 0 10 20 50
HYS 88 54 72 41 / 0 10 10 50
P28 86 57 82 51 / 0 10 40 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM....KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN
CLIMATE...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
247 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE FOLLOWING:
1) EVALUATING THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE RICH BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS; 2) DETERMINING HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL PROGRESS ON
SUNDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN EASTERN COLORADO; 3) DETERMINING
THE AREA WHERE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON; AND
4) ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES IN THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
A MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NORTH OF AUSTRALIA INTO THE TROPICAL SOUTH
PACIFIC. A TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS IN PROGRESS EAST OF VIET NAM ON THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION. THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION INTO
PHASE 8 OF THE WHEELER-HENDON PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM BY AROUND EASTER,
AND THIS PATTERN FAVORS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF A SPLIT FLOW WITH AN
ANTICYCLONICALLY BREAKING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWING INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE BACK INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NEXT WEEKEND SEEM VERY REASONABLE.
IN THE SHORTER TERM, THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIGGING
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STRONG TROUGH INTO ARIZONA BY SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO
SASKATCHEWAN IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. THERE ALWAYS
IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONES WILL EVOLVE WITH
TIME, BUT THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION PROBABLY IS FAIRLY GOOD. THE GFS
LARGELY WAS USED FOR GRID MODIFICATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRESSURES ALREADY ARE FALLING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOSH BACK WESTWARD TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK, BUT THE MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN KANSAS. BY SUNRISE, VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THE MOISTURE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS, AND THE DRYLINE GRADUALLY
WILL MIX EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THE RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE MOIST
LAYER. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, AND THE MOISTURE MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH THAT THE HYDROLAPSE WILL
FAVOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION BY SUNRISE. WHATEVER FOG DOES FORM WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS DODGE CITY BY MID AFTERNOON,
AND A VERY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EVOLVE DURING THE DAY.
H8 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING, SO
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30-35
KNOT RANGE SEEM REASONABLE. H8 DEWPOINTS WILL DROP TO NEAR -10C IN
FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH VALUES NEAR 0C AS FAR EAST AS DODGE CITY.
WITH H8 TEMPERATURES ABOVE 25C IN THE DRY AIR, SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH RECORDS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM
VEGETATION MAY SHAVE TWO OR THREE DEGREES OFF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES,
BUT HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE LIKELY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY MID AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
MODELS THIS MORNING REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QUICKLY MOVING
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 06Z MONDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THEN DEEPENS AS IT CROSSES NEW MEXICO DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY 00Z TUESDAY THE GFS, ECMWF, AND NAM ALL
PLACE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AHEAD OF
THIS DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND BASED ON THE GFS
AND NAM THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS THIS
MORNING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS COLD FRONT LATE DAY DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF
THIS FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTION LATE DAY DOES APPEAR
REASONABLE GIVEN THE MOISTURE RETURN FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR KEEPING A MENTION OF LATE DAY STORMS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 21Z. DECENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AT
00Z TUESDAY AND CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG.
MARGINAL SHEAR HOWEVER IS EXPECTED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AT OR BELOW
30KTS. STILL GIVEN SOME LATE DAY HEATING AND IMPROVING FORCING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DO THINK A FEW STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS FRONT LATE DAY MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE
BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THIS COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO USHER
IN SOME COOLER AIR LATE IN THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LOWER 80S STILL APPEAR LIKELY.
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES FROM
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOISTURE AND
LIFT (WARM AIR ADVECTION, ISENTROPIC LIFT, 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS) CONTINUES SO HAVE THEREFORE RAISE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FALL BACK TO NEAR FREEZING IF SKIES
CLEAR QUICK ENOUGH AND WIND GO LIGHT BUT GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUES
OF THE UPPER LOW HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO LATEST ALLBLEND.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST OUT INTO
THE PLAINS AND WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW IMPROVES
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
TWO CONCERNS FOR THE 06Z TAFS. FOG AND WINDS. THE 01/02Z HRRR IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MORNING. THIS MODEL WAS FAIRLY ACCURATE LAST NIGHT ALTHOUGH A LITTLE
TOO LOW ON VIS. THE RUC ALSO SHOWS LOWERED VIS GENERALLY IN THE SAME
AREA. DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS BUT HAVE LOWERED CIGS
FROM VFR TO MVFR TO START OUT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE THE HRRR
OVERDID IT LAST NIGHT. SECOND CONCERN IS WINDS. HAVE INCREASED SW WINDS
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT AS THE LEE SFC TROUGH STRENGTHENS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 89 52 74 41 / 0 10 10 60
GCK 90 50 69 40 / 0 10 10 50
EHA 90 49 66 38 / 0 10 20 50
LBL 90 50 71 40 / 0 10 20 50
HYS 88 54 72 41 / 0 10 10 50
P28 86 57 82 51 / 0 10 40 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUTHI
SYNOPSIS...RUTHI
SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM....BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1208 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 06Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE FOLLOWING:
1) EVALUATING THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE RICH BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS; 2) DETERMINING HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL PROGRESS ON
SUNDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN EASTERN COLORADO; 3) DETERMINING
THE AREA WHERE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON; AND
4) ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES IN THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
A MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NORTH OF AUSTRALIA INTO THE TROPICAL SOUTH
PACIFIC. A TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS IN PROGRESS EAST OF VIET NAM ON THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION. THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION INTO
PHASE 8 OF THE WHEELER-HENDON PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM BY AROUND EASTER,
AND THIS PATTERN FAVORS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF A SPLIT FLOW WITH AN
ANTICYCLONICALLY BREAKING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWING INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE BACK INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NEXT WEEKEND SEEM VERY REASONABLE.
IN THE SHORTER TERM, THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIGGING
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STRONG TROUGH INTO ARIZONA BY SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO
SASKATCHEWAN IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. THERE ALWAYS
IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONES WILL EVOLVE WITH
TIME, BUT THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION PROBABLY IS FAIRLY GOOD. THE GFS
LARGELY WAS USED FOR GRID MODIFICATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRESSURES ALREADY ARE FALLING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOSH BACK WESTWARD TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK, BUT THE MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN KANSAS. BY SUNRISE, VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THE MOISTURE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS, AND THE DRYLINE GRADUALLY
WILL MIX EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THE RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE MOIST
LAYER. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, AND THE MOISTURE MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH THAT THE HYDROLAPSE WILL
FAVOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION BY SUNRISE. WHATEVER FOG DOES FORM WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS DODGE CITY BY MID AFTERNOON,
AND A VERY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EVOLVE DURING THE DAY.
H8 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING, SO
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30-35
KNOT RANGE SEEM REASONABLE. H8 DEWPOINTS WILL DROP TO NEAR -10C IN
FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH VALUES NEAR 0C AS FAR EAST AS DODGE CITY.
WITH H8 TEMPERATURES ABOVE 25C IN THE DRY AIR, SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH RECORDS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM
VEGETATION MAY SHAVE TWO OR THREE DEGREES OFF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES,
BUT HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE LIKELY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY MID AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012
ON MONDAY AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO GET CUTOFF
AT THE BASE JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SURGE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY MORNING, THEN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY EVENING TO NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. PREFER THE
FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT OF THE NAM/GFS THAN THE ECMWF BECAUSE OF
THE STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, MAINLY EAST OF LINE FROM COLDWATER TO SAINT JOHN.
IF STORMS FORM A FEW COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER IF THE
FRONT DELAYS THE STORMS COULD BE STRONGER NEAR A COLD FRONT
AND DRYLINE INTERSECTION. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOWS WILL BE
MILD AND INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST AND MID 50S SOUTHEAST FA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTHWEST TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S SOUTHEAST FA.
FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE GEM AND THE
ECMWF ARE A BIT FASTER WITH THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GFS. RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME ELEVATED
CAPE WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM LARNED TO ASHLAND. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S WEST TO NEAR 50 EAST FA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 50 IN THE FAR WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR EAST FA.
ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. LOWS IN MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S FAR WEST TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO AROUND 60 NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. TOTAL RAINFALL
COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO OVER ONE HALF INCH WITH THE
HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FA FROM LARNED TO ASHLAND.
FOR THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS WITH A WARM UP BACK INTO THE 70S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY PUSHING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
SATURDAY TO AROUND 70. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
TWO CONCERNS FOR THE 06Z TAFS. FOG AND WINDS. THE 01/02Z HRRR IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MORNING. THIS MODEL WAS FAIRLY ACCURATE LAST NIGHT ALTHOUGH A LITTLE
TOO LOW ON VIS. THE RUC ALSO SHOWS LOWERED VIS GENERALLY IN THE SAME
AREA. DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CIGS BUT HAVE LOWERED CIGS
FROM VFR TO MVFR TO START OUT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE THE HRRR
OVERDID IT LAST NIGHT. SECOND CONCERN IS WINDS. HAVE INCREASED SW WINDS
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT AS THE LEE SFC TROUGH STRENGTHENS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 74 43 57 / 0 10 50 50
GCK 49 69 41 55 / 0 10 50 50
EHA 50 66 37 50 / 0 20 50 40
LBL 49 71 40 55 / 0 20 50 50
HYS 52 72 44 59 / 0 10 40 50
P28 57 82 49 63 / 0 30 50 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUTHI
SYNOPSIS...RUTHI
SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM....KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS.
LEE TROUGH WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LIFR-IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY AM HOURS SUNDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN THE NAM...GFS...RUC...AND
3KM HRRR MODELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN THE
LOW STRATUS OCCURRENCE IN CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OK AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRATUS LOOKS TO BURN OFF TOWARD MIDDAY
SUNDAY. BETTER MIXING AND NEAR FULL SUNSHINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT IN SOUTHERLY GUSTS ~25 KT MOST OF THE AREA.
JMC
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES...LOW CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT-MONDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CLOSING IN ON SOME RECORDS. FOR THIS
EVENING...SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL REMAIN ON EDGE OF WEAKER CAP
WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT PRIOR TO DARK. HOWEVER
LACK OF FOCUS/TRIGGER SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION SO WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WITH PERHAPS BETTER CHANCE FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AROUND DAWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WITH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO MIDDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW/BETTER MIXING INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE...WIND AND VERY
WARM MAXS ACROSS THE ENTIRE...GENERALLY IN THE 85 TO 90F RANGE.
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING MONDAY. THE INHERITED FORECAST SUPPORTS
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IN SLOWING THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
A LITTLE BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY EXISTS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS MID-AMERICA INTO MID-WEEK...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY
A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SATURDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS MODEST AT BEST...WILL
SHOW SMALL PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
DARMOFAL
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
FAIRLY QUIET AVIATION FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON AT KICT-KHUT-KCNU WILL BURN OFF BY
00-02Z. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL COOLING IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY PROMOTE A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS FROM 10/11Z THROUGH 14/15Z. THE NAM MODEL MAY BE
OVER-MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT OFTEN DOES...HENCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING...SO ONLY HINTED AT IT IN THE
18Z TAFS.
ADK
FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE UNSEASONBALY WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS ON
SUNDAY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DUE TO THE EARLY SPRING GREEN-UP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 60 87 61 84 / 0 0 0 20
HUTCHINSON 59 89 59 81 / 0 0 0 20
NEWTON 60 87 62 82 / 0 0 0 20
ELDORADO 60 87 63 85 / 0 0 0 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 61 88 63 86 / 0 0 0 20
RUSSELL 59 91 56 75 / 0 0 0 20
GREAT BEND 58 90 55 77 / 0 0 0 20
SALINA 61 90 60 81 / 0 0 0 20
MCPHERSON 60 89 60 81 / 0 0 0 20
COFFEYVILLE 62 88 66 88 / 0 10 10 10
CHANUTE 61 88 65 87 / 0 10 10 10
IOLA 61 88 65 87 / 0 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 61 88 65 88 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
527 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
LAST OF THE MCS IS FINALLY DEPARTING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WITH
SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MOST PLACES TO REACH THEIR HIGH FOR THE DAY OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SHOOT UP WITH THE SUNSHINE. WITH
STABLE AREA ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY STRETCHING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...ANY DEVELOPING MCS WILL BE AT LEAST 3 TO 6 HOURS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND DELAYED THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL AFTER
04Z (MIDNIGHT). THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST TIMING AND HANDLING
ON THE SITUATION WITH ALL OTHER MODELS TO AGGRESSIVE ON REDEVELOPING
ACTIVITY IN THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO
INDICATION THIS WILL HAPPEN AS CLOUDS ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
THUS...THE HRRR INDICATION OF LATER CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE THE WAY TO
GO UNTIL SOMETHING SHOWS ME OTHERWISE. STILL GOING TO BE MAINLY A
HAIL THREAT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ELEVATED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS EVENTS
UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
THE LEFTOVER MCS IS FINALLY MAKING AN EXIT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
THE BACK EDGE LIKELY TO EXIT BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. HIGHS HAVE REALLY
BEEN HAMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER...BUT DO EXPECT A LATE IN THE DAY
PUSH...WITH SOME LOW TO MID 70S FOUND WEST OF I-75...WHILE MOST
OTHERS RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PLAY UP ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO BASIN LATER THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
A DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL NOSE IN FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE MODEL TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY IF
IT DOES HAPPEN...SEEMS A BIT FAST...AS THERE IS NOTHING POPPING YET
IN NORTHERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME GOOD CHANCE POPS
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...SCALING BACK
QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...HAVE EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS...AS WE
HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY THE STORMS THAT TOOK PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS TONIGHT...WITH
AT LEAST LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY RECHARGE US SOMEWHAT.
THIS COMPLEX...WILL HELP DRAG A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BESIDES SOME LEFTOVER CONVECTION IN THE
MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY RE-FIRING LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME DECENT CAPPING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT...PERHAPS KICKING
OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS THIS OCCURS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH
READINGS HAVE COME IN A BIT COOLER FOR MONDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTRUSION...SO 70S WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE RULE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
A RATHER COMPLEX AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MOST OF THE TIME THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE TO OUR WEST...NORTH OR NORTHEAST
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLY DOMINATING DURING TWO DISTINCT
PERIODS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THIS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER IN THE PERIOD AND SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES FROM INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN.
EARLY ON...A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY EXIT
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MODELS
GENERALLY DEVELOP PRECIP ONLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING/DRY
SLOTTING OCCURRING BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY OR
TUE NIGHT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH FROM TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS TAKING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY WED EVENING. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN STALL FOR A
TIME...THOUGH THE MODELS VARY IN HOW LONG DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MEANDER SOUTH OF A NORTHERN
PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AND ON INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...POSSIBLY
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS
MEANDERING PATH FROM THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUE THROUGH FRI.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER....BUT FRI IT SHOULD FINALLY
GET PICKED UP BY A TROUGH TO ITS NORTHEAST AND THIS SHOULD THEN TAKE
IT OUT TO SEA. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN AND DOMINATE THAT LAST TWO TO TWO AND A HALF
DAYS OF THE PERIOD.
AS FOR POPS...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EARLY ON TUE
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND THEN INCREASED POPS LATE ON TUE INTO TUE
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THAT
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION OR THE CWA ON
TUE NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE SLIPPING SOUTH ON WED AND
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS DURING WED...BUT GRADUALLY LOWERED POPS IN THE
NORTH FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY. A SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AROUND MIDWEEK AND SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND HOLD IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE SFC LOW AND UPPER SYSTEM PROBABLY TRACK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEYS. ONCE THE UPPER SYSTEM
TRACKS EAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI.
FOR NOW THE END OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING. WITH THIS RIDGE...OPTED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF
RUNS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMEST AND MOST ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND THEN
MORE MODEST DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EXIT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT SME AND LOZ. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RENEWED THREAT OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...HOWEVER WILL ONLY
MAINTAIN THE VCTS WORDING FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
WHERE AND WHEN THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. RIGHT NOW...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE BETTER THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MOREHEAD...TO JACKSON...TO HARLAN.
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
935 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.UPDATE...CONVECTION IS BEING RATHER STUBBORN. OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY
CONTINUES TO WORK EAST ACROSS COASTAL MS BUT HAS BASICALLY STALLED
OVER COASTAL LA. IN FACT WHERE THE BNDRY IS ANCHORED(OVER
TERREBONNE...ST MARY...ASSUMPTION...AND ST MARTING PARISHES) IT IS
INTERACTING WITH A COOL POCKET NOTED BY THE RUC. THE RUC IS THE
ONLY MODEL EVEN NOTICING IT RIGHT NOW AS ALL OF THE OTHER HIRES SHORT
RANGE MDLS(12-36 HRS) ARENT EVEN HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION.
THE RUC IS SHOWING THIS COOL POCKET MOVING TO THE NORTH AND
BECOMING ELONGATED FROM NNW-SSE OVER THE WRN QUARTER OF OUR CWA.
WITH THAT I HAVE INCREASED POPS GREATLY FOR OUR SW AND WEST FOR
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE OVER ASSUMPTION...NRN
TERREBONNE...NWRN LAFOURCHE...ST JAMES...AND MAYBE INTO IBERVILLE
AND ASCENSION PARISHES OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE NO METRO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. GRIDS
AND ZONES ARE OUT. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 85 67 83 / 20 40 40 50
BTR 68 85 71 83 / 40 40 40 50
ASD 67 85 69 82 / 20 30 40 50
MSY 71 85 72 82 / 30 30 40 50
GPT 70 81 72 80 / 20 30 40 40
PQL 67 82 71 80 / 20 30 20 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
412 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT WILL SPAWN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER MONDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, COMING SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA, WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
BLEND OF RECENT RADAR DATA AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOW A SLOWER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE COLD FRONTAL SHOWER BAND ACROSS THE I-80
CORRIDOR. THIS MAY BE DUE TO SURFACE LAYER DRYNESS WHICH WOULD
INHIBIT INSTABILITY. THIS WOULD LIKEWISE INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING, BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE HAVE NOT OMITTED
MENTION OF SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
CONCUR WITH RECENT HRRR THAT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL HAVE
EXITED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY LATE TONIGHT.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TONIGHT USING BLEND OF HRRR, LAMP, AND NAM
MODEL OUTPUT WHICH YIELDED VALUES EITHER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING MONDAY. HENCE EXPECT SUNSHINE TO
BE PREVALENT.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, COMING SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA, WILL NEXT SPREAD
CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY STARTING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A FORECAST OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE EASTWARD PASSAGE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES, USING CONSENSUS OF SREF, GFS AND NAM
GUIDANCE, TO BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, 7 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL TUESDAY, AND NO MORE LIKE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO OFF SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THE BULK OF
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HPC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
WARMING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10KT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
A RETURN TO PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVERHEAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CU/STRATOCU FIELD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WAS BREAKING
UP/SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS ROLLS IN BY
EARLY EVENING.
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AT 2
PM. SOUTHERN EDGE MAY CLIP MARYLAND COUNTIES ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE THIS AFTERNOON BUT PER HRRR GUIDANCE THE BULK OF THESE STAY TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT A NEW AREA OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PRESS SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. WRF-ARW SEEMS A LITTLE ON THE
FAST SIDE...AND PREFER THE TIMING/EVOLUTION INDICATED BY THE HRRR
WHICH HAS GENERAL SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/GFS/SREFS. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA.
GIVEN TIME OF DAY/RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED EVENING THUNDER ACROSS
THE WEST WHERE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN LONGER AND WHERE
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY. FURTHER EAST...ONLY P-TYPE
INCLUDED IS SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST AND THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY AROUND 10Z MONDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT...PAVING THE WAY FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH SUNSHINE
MIXING WILL BE DECENT AND EXPECT WIND GUSTS AOA 25 MPH. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER SET OF MOS FOR MAX T ON MONDAY...WHICH RANGES FROM
LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND TO UPPER 60S TOWARD THE CENTRAL
VA FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...CAUSING DRY
AND SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND INTO EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA...TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MARYLAND...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND A RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SOUTH WILL USHER IN MILD CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS LATE IN
THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS OF
NOW IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT THE CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW
THIS FAR OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CU/STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUDS ROLL BACK IN THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE/FRONT WILL
BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS TONIGHT DURING A SEVERAL HOUR
WINDOW. TIMING FROM HRRR MODEL LOOKS REASONABLE. INCLUDED MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS AOA 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLOW ENOUGH
THEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE REMAINED
IN CHECK /AROUND 10 KT/ SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANNELLING THIS
EVENING COULD BRING WINDS CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS UP THE BAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FROPA/WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL GUST
PAST SCA CRITERIA CROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD.
A RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH HIGH TIDE TIMES IN
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE UPPER BAY THIS AFTERNOON. AT 2
PM...ANNAPOLIS REMAINED ABOUT 2.5 FT MLWW BUT WILL BE ON THE WAY
DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BIG QUESTION IS WHAT OCCURS ON
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT ANOMALIES
MAY REMAIN STEADY AND IF THAT IS THE CASE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE BEFORE
NORTHWEST WINDS DRIVE WATER OUT OF THE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ007-
011-014-018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
531-535-536-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/BJL
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BPP/BJL
MARINE...BPP/BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1149 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BREAK MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS
AS A WARM FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RECENT SATELLITE DATA SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED FOR THE MIDDAY,
BUT BLEND OF RECENT HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT SHOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS WILL START TO DEVELOP NEAR A
SOUTHEAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND A
NEAR STATIONARY WARM FRONT POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70.
RECENT HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT THEN SHOW THE COLD FRONTAL BAND
OF SHOWERS, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO EVENING, EXITING THE REGION BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE, NORTH TO SOUTH, AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE LAYER DRYING.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES USING BLEND
OF HRRR, SREF, GFS, AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY WEATHER LOOKS DRY WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN DEPICTIONS
OF DRY SURFACE HIGH SLIDING OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION AS RIDGE
ALOFT AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
DESPITE SUNSHINE. READINGS WERE FORECAST USING SREF WITH AN
APPROXIMATE 10 DEGREE SPREAD FM NR DUBOIS TO ZANESVILLE AS REGION
WL BE UNDER BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE LAKES AND ERODES THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WL
MODERATE IN THE WARM ADVECTION ON THE VAN OF THAT SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN GENERAL...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WL THUS BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. HAVE
PERSISTED WITH SUB CLIMO POPS...BUT CHANGES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
AS EVENTUAL WEATHER WL BE SHORTWAVE DEPENDENT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAST OF THE MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS SHOULD EITHER DISSIPATE OR
LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY 17Z.
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONTAL BAND OF MVFR SHOWERS WILL MOVE
FROM THE I-80 CORRIDOR AROUND 20Z TO SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY
00Z.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS, BUT
LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN WITH THE CAA. EXPECT GENERAL MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT ALL PORTS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZZV FOR THE LATE
EVENING HOURS, THEN POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MONDAY WILL BEGIN WITH IFR/MVFR
CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZZV THEN A RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY AFT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A
RETURN TO VFR LATER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
347 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
A STALLED FRONT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THEN SOME SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES JUST SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND FROSTY OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
BANDS OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT AND SOME OF THE RAIN IS EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED WORDING
SHOULD COVER IT. HRRR RUC HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS THROUGH
THE DAY...SO FOLLOWED IT FOR POPS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER A BREAK IN THE PRECIP...MORE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY
EVENING AS SFC LOW APPROACHES. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS
BUT IT IS MARGINAL...SO WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIDING EAST OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS WILL HAIL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY...AND MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-96. SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT SLOWER NOW...SO HAVE POPS
GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
VERY DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING
SKIES. COULD BE THE THREAT OF FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE PATCHY OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD STILL CAUSE SOME MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHANCE OF FROST WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE NEARBY GIVING US
LIGHTER WINDS AND SINKING TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD NOT COME UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE TO
OUR EAST. BUT GENERAL GUIDANCE CONSCIENCE SHOWS A FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
MVFR IN HAZE AND SOME CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FEET SHOULD BE GOING TO
VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING IN BY 00Z
CONTINUING THIS EVENING BUT THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND NOT
AFFECT THE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THIS WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
NO HYDRO ISSUES.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
336 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH FROSTY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. HRRR RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON THESE AND THE TIMING WAS FOLLOWED IN THE GRIDS. ALSO
TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT
OBS AND STUBBORN LOW LEVEL STRATUS THIS IS SLOW TO MIX OUT GIVEN
CURRENT STRONG INVERSION BELOW 700 MB.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIDING EAST OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS WILL HAIL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY...AND MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-96. SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT SLOWER NOW...SO HAVE POPS
GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
VERY DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING
SKIES. COULD BE THE THREAT OF FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE PATCHY OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD STILL CAUSE SOME MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHANCE OF FROST WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE NEARBY GIVING US
LIGHTER WINDS AND SINKING TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD NOT COME UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE TO
OUR EAST. BUT GENERAL GUIDANCE CONSCIENCE SHOWS A FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
MVFR IN HAZE AND SOME CEILINGS BELOW
2000 FEET SHOULD BE GOING TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING IN BY 00Z CONTINUING THIS EVENING BUT THESE SHOULD
BE ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECT THE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THIS WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
NO HYDRO ISSUES.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH FORSTY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. HRRR RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON THESE AND THE TIMING WAS FOLLOWED IN THE GRIDS. ALSO
TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT
OBS AND STUBBORN LOW LEVEL STRATUS THIS IS SLOW TO MIX OUT GIVEN
CURRENT STRONG INVERSION BELOW 700 MB.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY COULD BE ACTIVE WITH MCS ACTIVITY AS
H8 THETA-E RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL JET ARE PROGGED TO BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH H8 LI/S
AROUND -6C. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN EXCESS OF 35-40 KTS AND SUSPECT A
LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY TSTM CELLS/CLUSTERS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THE SFC FRONT/TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT THE EURO IS SLOWER AND
SUGGESTS A CONVECTIVE THREAT LINGERING ALL DAY TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE/DRY AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF FROST EACH NIGHT...
WITH SUNNY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S EXPECTED FOR
THE DAYS. DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS SHOULD BE RATHER LARGE DUE TO THE DRY
AIR MASS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. CONSIDERING THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHEASTERLY... WOULD EXPECT THE WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
MVFR IN HAZE AND SOME CEILINGS BELOW
2000 FEET SHOULD BE GOING TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING IN BY 00Z CONTINUING THIS EVENING BUT THESE SHOULD
BE ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECT THE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 256 PMEDT SUN APR 1 2012
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THIS WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
NO HYDRO ISSUES.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM....MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1257 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH FORSTY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. HRRR RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON THESE AND THE TIMING WAS FOLLOWED IN THE GRIDS. ALSO
TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT
OBS AND STUBBORN LOW LEVEL STRATUS THIS IS SLOW TO MIX OUT GIVEN
CURRENT STRONG INVERSION BELOW 700 MB.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY COULD BE ACTIVE WITH MCS ACTIVITY AS
H8 THETA-E RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL JET ARE PROGGED TO BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH H8 LI/S
AROUND -6C. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN EXCESS OF 35-40 KTS AND SUSPECT A
LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY TSTM CELLS/CLUSTERS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THE SFC FRONT/TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT THE EURO IS SLOWER AND
SUGGESTS A CONVECTIVE THREAT LINGERING ALL DAY TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE/DRY AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF FROST EACH NIGHT...
WITH SUNNY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S EXPECTED FOR
THE DAYS. DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS SHOULD BE RATHER LARGE DUE TO THE DRY
AIR MASS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. CONSIDERING THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHEASTERLY... WOULD EXPECT THE WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO 3-5 MILE VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG WERE PRESENT
EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS WERE MOSTLY 4-6K FEET WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR VIRGA/SPRINKLES DOTTING THE REGION.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FLOW INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS A WEAK SFC FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND SETTLES SOUTH OF MI
THIS AFTERNOON. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 6SM WITH THE
4-6K CLOUD DECK SCATTERING OUT AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH AND
WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AROUND 8 KTS.
OPTED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF TS/CB OUT OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR TAF
SITES SINCE THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER CHICAGO IS SLIDING SE AND
SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR. ANY REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY SHOULD BE
JUST SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER NEAR THE SFC FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
NO HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO LITTLE IF ANY PCPN TODAY... LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT/TUE FOLLOWED BY DRY WX MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM....MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1040 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EVENING. LATEST
AVAILABLE RUC INDICATING WARM SECTOR TO WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. MLCIN DROP OFF MARKEDLY AS WELL...BUT
BELIEVE CAP WILL HOLD FOR ANY REAL SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
SHOULD SEE ELEVATED ACTIVITY INITIATE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NEAR
REDWOOD FALLS...AND THEN MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. MOST ALL DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATE THIS
AS WELL. VERY STEEP/UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
8C/KM WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG MOVING...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE CONVECTION. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH SOME WIND POSSIBLE AS WELL.
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND IS SLOWER THAN
WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY. WILL HAVE TO LINGER SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THEN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STILL RANGING ABOVE NORMAL.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND WITH LARGE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTH OVER THE AREA...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS MENTIONED AND STILL LOOKS GOOD.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST...MAINLY OVER WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
RETREATS TO THE EAST.
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. EVEN
COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW THIS FRONT...POSSIBLE MAKING TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A COUPLE OF AREAS OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN PAST HOUR OR
SO. ONE IS AN E-W BAND MAINLY ACROSS THE S TWIN CITIES METRO ON N
EDGE OF B5 850 MB LIFTED INDEX GRADIENT. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
MOVING ENE AND SHUD REMAIN MAINLY S OF MSP/RNH BUT A WINDOW OF AN
HOUR OR SO AROUND TAF IDSSUE TIME. A LONGER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
AT EAU WHERE THEY MAY LINGER UNTIL 08-09Z. OTHER AREA OF ISOL TSTMS
HAS BEEN DVLPG IN WC INTO CNTRL MN AHD OF UPPER TROF. CIGS
GENERALLY AROUND 4K ATTM...BUT WITH PCPN SHUD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS
DVLP IN THE OVERNITE INTO TUESDAY MRNG. AS SFC LOW IN NW IA
CONTINUES TO DROP ESE OVERNITE INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS AREA WITH NNE WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KTS.
KMSP...A THREAT OF THUNDER UNTIL AROUND 07Z AS CONVECTION S OF MSP
MOVES ENE. ENE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BECOME
STRONGER AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS AREA. FAIRLY UNIFORM
CIGS ARND 4000 FT ACROSS AREA SHUD DIP INTO MVFR RANGE WITH PCPN IN
AREA. IMPRVG CIGS ARND 15Z TO VFR BCMG MAINLY SKC LATE AFTN.
OUTLOOK... /TUE NIGHT-FRI/...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS.
/SAT-SUN/...POSSIBLE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
702 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EVENING. LATEST
AVAILABLE RUC INDICATING WARM SECTOR TO WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. MLCIN DROP OFF MARKEDLY AS WELL...BUT
BELIEVE CAP WILL HOLD FOR ANY REAL SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
SHOULD SEE ELEVATED ACTIVITY INITIATE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NEAR
REDWOOD FALLS...AND THEN MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. MOST ALL DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATE THIS
AS WELL. VERY STEEP/UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
8C/KM WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG MOVING...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE CONVECTION. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH SOME WIND POSSIBLE AS WELL.
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND IS SLOWER THAN
WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY. WILL HAVE TO LINGER SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THEN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STILL RANGING ABOVE NORMAL.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND WITH LARGE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTH OVER THE AREA...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS MENTIONED AND STILL LOOKS GOOD.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST...MAINLY OVER WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
RETREATS TO THE EAST.
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. EVEN
COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW THIS FRONT...POSSIBLE MAKING TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
STILL LOOKS LIKE A THUNDER THREAT FROM SC MN INTO WISC AND WILL
MENTION TSRA AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU DURING THE LATE EVENING. EXCELLENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT AMONG OTHER FACTORS. CONFIDENCE ABOUT
AVERAGE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FOR A SHORT WHILE THIS
EVENING IN WC MN INTO CENTRAL MN BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS BELOW
AVERAGE. ONCE SFC LOW GOES BY ALONG THE SW MN/NW IA BORDER AND
INTO EASTERN IOWA...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO STRATIFORM AND MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET. TOO MUCH WIND AND COLD ADVECTION
FOR FOG. A COUPLE MODELS DO HANG ON TO MVFR CLOUDS LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE SO HAVE MAINTAINED
MVFR INTO THE LATE MORNING IN WC MN AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN WISC.
KMSP...HAVE ADDED THUNDER AS DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CLIPS THE METRO AFTER 03Z. THERE HAS BEEN A HINT OF
SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE CU FIELD TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS APPEARS
TO BE WHAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON FOR CONVECTIVE DEVLOPMENT.
CONFIDENT AVERAGE INTHIS. AFTER THIS GOES BY...PRECIP SHOULD
TRANSITION TO STRATIFORM AND HAVE KEPT MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 07Z AND
ALL THE WAY TO 17Z. CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE EXISTENCE OF
THE MVFR THOUGH TIMING MAY VARY AN HOUR OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE. SKY
SHOULD BECOME VFR AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AND IN FACT MOSTLY CLEAR.
OUTLOOK... /TUE NIGHT-FRI/...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS.
/SAT-SUN/...POSSIBLE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
342 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAS PERSISTED ACROSS MOST OF CWA
OVERNIGHT AS APPROACHING FRNTL SYSTEM HAS STALLED/WEAKENED
UNDERNEATH BUILDING MID LVL RIDGE. RUC13 SHOWS WINDS NORTH OF
FRNTL BDRY AT 925 HAVE ALREADY SWITCHED TO NE INDICATING NOT MUCH
PUSH TO GET THE BDRY THROUGH ANYTIME SOON. MSAS HAS PRESS RISES
WEAKENING NORTH OF BDRY AS WELL. SFC T/TD SPREADS ARE NEAR ZERO
OVER MOST OF NRN CWA WHERE MSTR HAS POOLED AHEAD OF DECAYING
FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME ACROSS NRN ITASCA/KOOCH/NRN
STL COUNTIES. WILL ISSUE DFA FOR EARLY MORNING.
TODAY..WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MIDDAY
AS MID LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. BDRY LYR
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST DURING AFTN AND CEILINGS SHOULD
LIFT. CLOUD FCST WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY BUT HAVE LEANED WITH
WRF ARW 4KM IDEA THAT CLEARING WILL ADVECT FROM MPX CWA BY LATE
MORNING. HAVE USED A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF THE EC/ALLBLEND TO
FCST MAX TEMPS. THIS ALSO RESPECTS THE BRISK ONSHORE COMPONENT THAT
DEVELOPS THIS AFTN AS MESOSCALE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN
LAKE FROM ONTARIO.
TONIGHT...CYCLOGENESIS OVER WRN HI PLAINS CREATES STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS NRN PLAINS. LLJ IS FCST TO PUSH INTO
CWA WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 6Z. USING SREF CPTP
AND EC/NAM CONVECTIVE FCSTS OF SHEAR/MUCAPE PUTS INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER INTO SWRN CWA MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS
MOST OF CWA EXCEPT ERN ARROWHEAD BY 12Z. SREF 3HR CALIBRATED SVR
VALUES QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL TRACK INTO SWRN MN BY 0Z TUES. MAIN PUSH
OF 85H MSTR TRANSPORT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NRN TIER OF CWA WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE. EC/GEM/NAM IN MDT AGREEMENT THAT
STRONG LOW LVL INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE AIDED BY APPROACHING UPPER
TROF. MID LVL WARM ADVECTION MAY LIMIT MUCH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER
WISC ZONES..AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS TWIN PORTS. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS EVEN FARTHER IN THIS AREA.
.EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT PUSHING A SFC
FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY 12Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NEAR THE FRONT. THE
TROF REACHES NE WI BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND PUSHES THE FRONT WELL E OF
THE AREA AND ENDS THE PCPN. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS THE SFC HIGH SLIPS FARTHER TO THE E.
A STRONG LLJ AT 850MB WILL USHER IN WARM/MOIST AIR. ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS TO MENTION SOME POPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FA. POPS ARE SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FA ON SATURDAY AS
A CLOSED/STACKED UPPER LOW MEANDERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SENDING PIECES OF ENERGY TOWARD THE FA.
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
IFR OR LOW MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH
CLEAR SKIES FROM WALKER TO COOK TO CRANE LAKE AND POINTS NORTH AND
WEST. SATELLITE DID SHOW THE STRATUS WAS MOVING BACK TOWARD THE
WEST AND NORTH TOWARD WALKER. FOG WAS ALSO DEVELOPING...AND VSBYS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERING
TO EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CEILINGS LIFTING QUICKLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING GIVEN THE
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE STABILITY DROPPING. THE MODELS DO SHOW SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND BY LATE EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG.
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 41 54 38 / 10 30 40 50
INL 63 40 53 33 / 10 50 60 40
BRD 67 50 64 38 / 10 40 50 40
HYR 67 45 64 39 / 10 30 30 50
ASX 58 43 58 38 / 10 30 30 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-
018-019-021-025-026.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM....GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1201 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE FA AT MID
AFTERNOON. ONLY THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE NEAR FULL SUN. SOME
THINNING APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. THE HRRR IS
TRYING TO SHOW CLEARING WORKING INTO FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CLEARING OR NOT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH SATURATION DEVELOPING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY TO LEAD FOG AND MORE
STRATUS REFORMING. NAM BUFKIT HYDROLAPSE SHOWS A NICE INCREASE
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TONIGHT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
INDICATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION SUNDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS PASSING BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL MN AND PASS THEM ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL
WI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BUT THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OCCURRING TO OUR WEST NOW IS A CONCERN. MUCH BETTER
INSTABILITY IS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN IA ATTM AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN KDSM AND
KMKE. SO SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH OF OUR FA THIS
EVENING.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN FOR MANY AREAS. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING...BUT
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN HAVE A REALLY GOOD CHANCE
OF SEEING HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S. READINGS IN THE 80S ARE
OCCURRING RIGHT NOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF KFSD WITH H85
TEMPERATURES OF +16 TO +18 DEGREES C. SOUTHWEST AREAS OF MN WILL
BE SOME 2 TO 3 DEGREES C ABOVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH NEAR
90 IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AROUND LUVERNE AND PIPESTONE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE
INTO THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY EVENING
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST WI DURING THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS. LAPSE RATES ARE BETTER THAN 6.5 DEG C/KM
ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION PATTERN.
THE CROSSOVER BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE BUT A
LITTLE NORTH OF OUR CWA. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO SOME STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND MOVING TOWARDS KDLH. A FEW STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR.
THERE STILL REMAINS MODEL SPREAD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ON
MOVING THE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE SLOWEST WHILE THE NAM IS THE FASTEST. THE GEM AND GEFS
ARE PRETTY SIMILAR. TRIED TIMING PRECIPITATION BASED ON THIS
COMBINATION. THIS YIELDED LIKELY POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL MN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI MONDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST
AREAS OF THE FA IF THE CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT
DEVELOP AS FORECAST.
DRY WEATHER FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STALLS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS
DURING THE PERIOD FROM 55 TO 65 WITH LOWS FROM 35 TO 45. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT IS THEN PROJECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST ON MOVING THE FRONT
THROUGH ALONG WITH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES. FOR
NOW...INDICATED ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
DIFFICULT CEILING FCST THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS DUE TO THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC FRONTS OVER WRN MN/ERN DAKOTAS COMBINED
WITH THICK ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS PREVENTING MIXING. FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCE SHOWS LARGE SWATH OF LOW STRATUS WITH FOG ENCOMPASSING THE
AREA. WITH ONE TAF SITE...KAXN...ALREADY WELL INTO THE LIFR
CATEGORY...SEE NO REASNO WHY THE OTHERS WOULD NOT GET THERE...ESP
THOSE THAT WOULD BE E AND N OF THE SFC BOUNDARIES. WILL LOOK FOR
ALL TAF SITES TO GET DOWN TO A VARIATION OF IFR-OR-WORSE...WHETHER
FROM CIG OR VSBY...THROUGH DAYBREAK. ONCE PAST THE DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...QUESTION BECOMES HOW LONG WILL THE IFR-
TO-MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH THE AFTN. MODELS SUGGEST DELAYED
PROGRESSION OF THE WMFNT OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL
EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND HENCE THE LOW
MOISTURE WHICH WOULD NOT MIX OUT WELL AND KEEP LOW STRATUS GOING.
HAVE ADVERTISED THIS TREND FOR ALL BUT KAXN AND KRWF...WHICH
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO CLEAR OUT. HIGH CIRRUS WOULD THEN PREVAIL
THRU THE EVENING UNTIL HIGH CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TMRW NIGHT.
MSP...CIGS MAINTAINING AT LOWER-END MVFR AND WILL LOOK FOR THEM TO
TOUCH INTO IFR BEFORE SLOWLY RISING OUT DURG THE DAY TMRW.
HOWEVER...THAT RISE WILL BE SLOW SO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY. DIFFICULT TO TELL IF THE CIGS WILL BE ABOVE OR
BELOW THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD BUT GIVEN THAT THE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO DELAY CLEARING WITH THIS ISSUANCE...HAVE COMPROMISED AND
KEPT THE LATE MRNG THRU AFTN CIGS AT 2000 FT. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
LATE DAY THEN HIGH CLOUDS FILL IN.
OUTLOOK...
/SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT/...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THRU WILL PRODUCE
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS THE REGION. MVFR-IFR CONDS LIKELY.
/TUE-THU/...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
845 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2012
.UPDATE...
/832 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2012/
Cold front is clearly evident on OAX radar making steady
southeastward progress toward extreme northwest MO. Further to the
southwest, a nearly stationary convective complex has formed along
the front across central and southwest Kansas. Storm motion vectors
will keep that activity well west of the area overnight. 00Z TOP
sounding shows a very dry and stable low-level airmass in place,
though OAX sounding is slightly deeper with the low-level moisture
and thus weaker with convective inhibition. As the cold front
progresses southeastward, a few showers or storms can`t be ruled out
across far northwest MO in this slightly more favorable airmass before
the front encounters the very stable air further south. Updated to
keep slight chance PoPs through 09Z across far northwest MO and dry
elsewhere.
Later tonight, NAM and to a lesser extent GFS and RUC suggest the
higher 850-hPa theta-e evident on the 00Z OUN sounding may stream
into eastern KS and western MO toward 12Z. This may yield enough
elevated instability for a few convective cells to develop toward
sunrise across these areas, though low-level wind fields will be
decreasing to below 10 kts by this time so forcing will be very
limited. Will maintain slight chance to low chance PoPs across the
western CWA from 09Z to 12Z. Due to the very weak low-level wind
fields anything that does develop is unlikely to be severe.
Hawblitzel
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Short Range (Tonight through Wednesday)...
Water vapor imagery shows us that the cutoff low, that we have been
focusing on for many days as our weather maker for the week, is
currently in the process of forming across the Desert Southwest. As
the low develops, the parent trough to the developing low is already
moving east along the Canadian border as it begins to ride up and
over the ridge across the nations mid-section. This shortwave will be
responsible for a cold front that will shift southeast through
eastern Kansas and Missouri later tonight. A little closer to home,
another notable feature is seen shifting northeast along the Texas
Gulf Coast, generating thunderstorm activity well to our south.
For tonight, the modest shortwave shifting east along the Canadian
border today has helped lift a weak warm front north through
Missouri with pressure falls across the Northern Plains, but later
tonight the same shortwave will help drag a cold front southeast
through Kansas and the northern half of Missouri as the wave shifts
farther east. Speaking of the cold front, it is currently oriented
almost north south across central Kansas this afternoon, with some
modest CU noted popping up in the vicinity of the associated dryline.
As the rest of the front settles southeast during the evening hours,
convergence across central Kansas, in combination with available
CAPE, could generate some convection tonight. However, the potential
for these storms to work east into far eastern Kansas and Western
Missouri looks limited as the low level jet will be focused across
central Kansas as the cutoff low shifts into the Plains States. Will
keep some some slight chance pops across our western border for the
evening hours, with chance POPs after midnight as that would be the
typical timing for any activity that started in central Kansas to
reach western Missouri. However, while the potential for storms looks
low, any that do pop-up will need close watching, especially if they
approach far northwest Missouri, where shear parameters would be
sufficient to support some severe weather.
For Tuesday and Wednesday, models continue to show a high degree of
agreement as to the track of the cutoff low across the Central
Plains. However, the total amount of rain, or when and where the
storms associated with the low will be is a little harder to pick
out. But, at this time confidence is high enough to continue broad
brushing chance POPs in for the day Tuesday as moisture advects north
along the ascending isentropic surfaces, with likely POPs in from
Tuesday night through Wednesday night as this becomes maximized as
the low shifts east across Kansas and Missouri.
Cutter
Medium Range (Thursday through Monday)...
The upper low should be moving east of the region by late Thursday
but there should remain decent chances for showers early in the day
that diminish by the evening. The best chances for rain should be
across our eastern zones, which will be closer to the center of the
upper low.
Once the low exits the region a surface ridge of high pressure will
move into the Midwest with what appears to be a relatively dry
(compared to recently) airmass. With the surface ridge axis draped
across the area we could see a fairly chilly start to the day on
Friday, especially across northeastern Missouri where lows may fall
into upper 30s. With how warm it has been recently we may need to
monitor Friday morning for even colder temperatures.
A larger system will track across the Northern Plains and upper
Midwest Saturday into Sunday which will send a frontal boundary
through the region Saturday evening/night. This will bring another
good chance for showers and thunderstorms to region. It`s still a
little early to say there may or may not be severe weather but it
looks like there will be decent convergence along the front and high
enough shear for storm organization. The real question is what
amount of instability will develop during the day. The GFS is more
robust with the instability than the ECMWF and if enough instability
can materialize there could at least be some strong storms Saturday
afternoon/evening.
Biggest deviation from the forecast initialization was to remove
POPs from about 12Z Sunday onward. With the front pushing south of
the region it seems unlikely we`d get much precipitation to occur
with a much drier airmass moving into the region.
CDB
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...developing convection over central KS is expected
to remain well west of KC terminals this evening, as a capping
inversion overhead will make it very difficult for precip to make it
this far east. Can`t rule out some late nocturnal convection
developing toward sunrise as a front moves in from the north, but
chances for this appear to low to include in the TAFs at this time.
MVFR cigs behind the front may make it as far south as STJ...possibly
even MCI...but forecast soundings indicate this moisture should
become more scattered in nature as it gets this far south. Slightly
better chances for convection will exist Wednesday afternoon,
especially south of the KC area.
Hawblitzel
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO EAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
1023 AM MDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN PER THE CURRENT
RADAR AND THE HRRR MODEL FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO
LOWERED SKY COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON. REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. RSMITH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPLITTING UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE WEST
COAST...WILL BE FORMING A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE
THE NORTHERN PORTION LIFTS ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH MONDAY. COLD FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF CWA WITH
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA. WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING NORTH SO MAINLY WILL BE AFFECTING THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG WEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. AS SHOWERS MOVE NORTH AND WIND
INCREASE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP IN THE
AFTERNOON... BRINGING ON CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM
DIMINISHING COMPLETELY.
BY MONDAY MORNING RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BUT COLD AIR WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WINDS WILL KICK UP
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED.
UPPER RIDGE SPREADS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH
WARMER AIR PUSHING INTO THE TREASURE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WINDS GOING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL MONTANA. EBERT
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON... TO THE EAST A COLD AIR
POOL OVER THE HUDSON BAY IS DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE
RIDES FROM DEATH VALLEY THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND UP INTO
NORTHERN ALBERTA. A LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM YUKON TO THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. FURTHER UP STREAM A SMALL RIDGE/TROUGH COMBO LIES JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RIDGE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL
OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS WITH A SEMI STABLE
ATMOSPHERE. ANTICIPATE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... OFF SHORE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BEGIN IMPACTING THE CENTRAL MONTANA.
INITIALLY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH SETTING UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BEING PUMPING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION AS WELL.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO FORM AND
DRAG IN COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE CONTRAST WILL PROVIDE LIFT
BUT SHOULD TURN IT INTO A STRATIFORM EVENT BY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD... MODELS ARE SWINGING AROUND A BIT AND
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. WHERE AT FIRST WENT WITH AND EC/GEM
12Z BLEND THE NEW CONSENSUS IS GFS/EC 00Z BLEND. GOING PREDOMINATELY
PERSISTENCE AND USING SLIGHT BLENDS. SURFACE LOW PREVIOUSLY WAS
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST EARLY BUT NOW HOLDS ON OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. REGION LOOKS TO PUSH FOR ZONAL
SO MODERATED TEMPERATURES OUT BY BLUNTING ANY COLD OR WARM PUSHES.
GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
THE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. BY LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BACK
THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE THEM TO AROUND 20 KTS
GUSTING TO 30 KTS.
KGDV TERMINAL AWOS EQUIPMENT IS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH VISIBILITY
AND OCCASIONAL CEILINGS IN METARS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
WINDS ONLY.
GAH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT WINDIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RH WILL AGAIN DIP INTO
THE LOWER 20S DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ120-122-134>137.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR FORT PECK LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1100 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND PUT IN SOME DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHEAST. THE NAM AND OBSERVATIONS
TO THE NORTH SUPPORT THIS. INCREASED SKY COVER TO CLOUDY FOR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN THIS THIS
EVENING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH A FEW HOURS
EARLIER. SOME SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL HELP BRING SOME RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH AS MODELS DIFFER WILDLY WITH RAIN POSSIBILITIES.
STRATUS SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED AND ARE QUITE WARM.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS
SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING...BUT HAS HELD OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO INCREASE TO THE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR WEST. WILL LEAVE THE WIND
ADVISORY AS IS.
THE POSITION OF THE FRONT IS KEY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE CURRENT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE THE NAM AND GFS HAVE IT A
BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THE BEST MUCAPES ARE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE OVER 1000J/KG CAPES FAR
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS STARTS TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND PUSHES
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD.
LOOKING AT THE TIME FRAME STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION FROM A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHOWING THE LOW CENTERED
OVER THE PANHANDLES OF TX/OK...BUT MORE VARIANCES START TO SHOW UP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM DOESNT
MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS TO THE
EAST EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST REGION UP INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS...AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TO RANGE IN LOCATION FROM
SC KS TO WRN OK. INCREASED LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL HELP WITH THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS INCREASED LOW/MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW SHIFTS INTO
THE CWA. DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WED
EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE MODELS/SREF PROBS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
LINGERING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA. EXPECTING
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY N/NE WINDS AS THE MAIN SFC LOW
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW/MID 50S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT
PUSHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE MO RIVER...AND PUSHED POPS BACK WEST TO
INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LATEST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT DRY. SEE A SLIGHT BUMP IN HIGHS BUT TEMPS REMAIN ON THE
RELATIVELY COOL SIDE /COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL NEAR
OR ABOVE AVG/...WITH THE CWA REMAINING ON THE WRN/SRN FRINGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...AND AM EXPECTING LOWER 60S.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND EXPAND FURTHER EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS VARY SOME THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THIS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ELONGATED LOW OVER WRN/CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE THE EC SHOWS ANY LOW
LOCATED OFF THE PAC NW COAST. KEPT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT POPS GO ALL
THE WAY SOUTH TROUGH THE CWA WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW MORE
COVERAGE. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SET UP JUST WEST OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY...AND PUSH THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MUCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 7-800 J/KG...SO THREAT OF SOME
STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
KEPT THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
DRY...THOUGH THE GFS TRIES TO LINGER SOME POPS IN THE EAST EARLY ON
SAT MORNING. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS DO VARY SOME
ON THE TIMING. EC IS ON THE QUICKER SIDE...WITH THE FRONT CLEARING
THE CWA SAT MORNING...WHILE THE GFS WOULD BE MORE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOOKS TO BE BREEZY DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND THE FRONT. MORE ZONAL/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS FOR SUN/MON WITH A RIDGE SET UP OVER THE
SRN/SWRN CONUS...WITH NO NOTABLE SYSTEM LOOKING TO PASS THROUGH.
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND IS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A PLEASANT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. MONDAY COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
WINDS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...BUT STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER NICE DAY
WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/UPDATE...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
944 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.UPDATE...
WINDS ALOFT AT THE KLNX PROFILER HAVE DROPPED TO 40 TO 45 KT
SUPPORTING DECREASING SFC WIND SPEEDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NWRN NEB IS RELAXING. MERRIMAN PROFILER STILL RUNNING 30 TO
50 KTS ALOFT THOUGH. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THE STRATUS TRAPS MOMENTUM IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SO PORTIONS OF THE WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
06Z AND OTHERS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
THE HIGH WIND THREAT HAS ENDED AS MIXING HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE
FALLING. WINDS AT THE MERRIMAN PROFILER HAVE FALLEN TO 45 KTS AND
THE KLNX VAD WIND PROFILER INDICATES A DEEP LAYER OF 40 TO 50 KT
WINDS SUPPORTING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SO THE HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH LOCAL IFR AROUND KONL.
TOWARD MORNING...IFR MAY DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD SOUTH OF I-80 AS A
BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES. MVFR SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-80 THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING NORTH
OF I-80.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE TRACKING TOO CLOSE TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NCNTL NEB FOR STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP. SO THAT PORTION
OF THE WIND ADZY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NEITHER THE RUC NOR THE HRRR
INDICATE 45 MPH GUST BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A DECISION MAY NEED TO BE MADE ON WHETHER TO CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY ALONG HWY 281. THE MODELS ARE TRACKING THE SFC LOW FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO PERHAPS PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM DEVELOPING IN
THAT REGION. OTHERWISE THE HIGH WIND WARNING CAN CONTINUE
OPERATING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB. HIGH WINDS MIGHT DEVELOP
EASTWARD UNTIL 00Z AS MERRIMAN PROFILER SHOWS 2 GATES OF 55KT AT
19Z. WITH CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS TX AND THE MODELS
INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SWRN NEB.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NM/NW TEXAS TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO SHOOT A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS NORTHWARD
INTO SRN NEB. THE MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL FALL
APART FAIRLY QUICKLY AS IT MOVES NORTH. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
INTO PARTS OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB PRODUCING AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS APPEARS TO SUFFERING QPF FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW 20 UBARS OF LIFT EXTENDING UPWARD TO
OVER 500 MB AND THE QPF LOOKS OVERDONE. A 4-WAY BLEND OF
NAM...GEM...ECM AND GFS WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH
SUGGESTED DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER A PERIOD OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
SITUATED ACROSS THE WRN U.S.. STRATUS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTN AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AS THIS DISTURBANCE LIFT
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A PV15 ANOMALY WILL BE OPERATING IN TANDEM
WITH THE DISTURBANCE AND A DRYLINE BULGE SHOULD DEVELOP FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR ABOVE 25KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA /FROM KOGA TO KTIF TO KONL/ WILL SEE THE HIGHER WINDS
PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS.
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
LEADING TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND MVFR CEILINGS. THERE
ARE MIXED SIGNALS ON THE HEIGHT OF THIS CLOUD LAYER. SO ALTHOUGH
FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA...DO HAVE A CONSIDERATE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLOUD HEIGHT. NAM WOULD SAY IFR
CEILINGS WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS WOULD ACTUALLY RAISE THE CEILINGS TO
ABOUT 5K FEET. AT THIS TIME...KEPT A STABLE FORECAST WITH CEILINGS
AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF AT 2500 FT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT
/6 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ056>058-069-070.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ022-
023-035>038-059-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
942 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.UPDATE...
WINDS ALOFT AT THE KLNX PROFILER HAVE DROPPED TO 40 TO 45 KT
SUPPORTING DECREASING SFC WIND SPEEDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NWRN NEB IS RELAXING. MERRIMAN PROFILER STILL RUNNING 30 TO
50 KTS ALOFT THOUGH. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THE STRATUS TRAPS MOMENTUM IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SO PORTIONS OF THE WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
06Z AND OTHERS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
THE HIGH WIND THREAT HAS ENDED AS MIXING HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE
FALLING. WINDS AT THE MERRIMAN PROFILER HAVE FALLEN TO 45 KTS AND
THE KLNX VAD WIND PROFILER INDICATES A DEEP LAYER OF 40 TO 50 KT
WINDS SUPPORTING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SO THE HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH LOCAL IFR AROUND KONL.
TOWARD MORNING...IFR MAY DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD SOUTH OF I-80 AS A
BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES. MVFR SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-80 THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING NORTH
OF I-80.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE TRACKING TOO CLOSE TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NCNTL NEB FOR STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP. SO THAT PORTION
OF THE WIND ADZY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NEITHER THE RUC NOR THE HRRR
INDICATE 45 MPH GUST BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A DECISION MAY NEED TO BE MADE ON WHETHER TO CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY ALONG HWY 281. THE MODELS ARE TRACKING THE SFC LOW FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO PERHAPS PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM DEVELOPING IN
THAT REGION. OTHERWISE THE HIGH WIND WARNING CAN CONTINUE
OPERATING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB. HIGH WINDS MIGHT DEVELOP
EASTWARD UNTIL 00Z AS MERRIMAN PROFILER SHOWS 2 GATES OF 55KT AT
19Z. WITH CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS TX AND THE MODELS
INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SWRN NEB.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NM/NW TEXAS TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO SHOOT A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS NORTHWARD
INTO SRN NEB. THE MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL FALL
APART FAIRLY QUICKLY AS IT MOVES NORTH. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
INTO PARTS OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB PRODUCING AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS APPEARS TO SUFFERING QPF FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW 20 UBARS OF LIFT EXTENDING UPWARD TO
OVER 500 MB AND THE QPF LOOKS OVERDONE. A 4-WAY BLEND OF
NAM...GEM...ECM AND GFS WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH
SUGGESTED DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER A PERIOD OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
SITUATED ACROSS THE WRN U.S.. STRATUS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTN AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AS THIS DISTURBANCE LIFT
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A PV15 ANOMALY WILL BE OPERATING IN TANDEM
WITH THE DISTURBANCE AND A DRYLINE BULGE SHOULD DEVELOP FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR ABOVE 25KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA /FROM KOGA TO KTIF TO KONL/ WILL SEE THE HIGHER WINDS
PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS.
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
LEADING TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND MVFR CEILINGS. THERE
ARE MIXED SIGNALS ON THE HEIGHT OF THIS CLOUD LAYER. SO ALTHOUGH
FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA...DO HAVE A CONSIDERATE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLOUD HEIGHT. NAM WOULD SAY IFR
CEILINGS WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS WOULD ACTUALLY RAISE THE CEILINGS TO
ABOUT 5K FEET. AT THIS TIME...KEPT A STABLE FORECAST WITH CEILINGS
AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF AT 2500 FT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ056>058-
069-070.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ022-
023-035>038-059-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
927 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR SKY...POP/WEATHER...AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THIS EVENING. OVERCAST STRATUS DECK HAS ENCROACHED INTO
NORTHWEST CWA...AND RUC/NAM/HRRR PROGS INDICATE IT WILL OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN IA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OR ALL OF
TOMORROW AS WELL. HAVE BUMPED CLOUDS TO OVERCAST/CLOUDY COVERAGE
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TOMORROW.
PRECIP HAS REMAINED MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...WITH JUST A
FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO MENTION JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO
REMOVED MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA AND ADDED
DRIZZLE...AS KLBF RADAR HAS A DRIZZLE APPEARANCE WITH LIGHT PRECIP
ON THE KONL OB.
FINALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABRUPTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...HAVE UPDATED THE TEMPERATURE TREND FOR A SHARP DROPOFF
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLOWER DROPOFF THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.
MAYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AT ALL TAF SITES.
FRONT HAD ALREADY REACHED KOFK...AND WILL REACH KLNK/KOMA WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS LAG JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
KOFK LIKELY TO BE RIGHT AROUND 1KFT BY 02Z...AND MVFR STRATUS
MOVING INTO KOMA/KLNK BY 06-08Z. MODELS INDICATE STRATUS WILL
LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH CIGS LIKELY LIFTING ABOVE MVFR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL MIXING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. DID KEEP RAIN/CB OUT OF
KOMA/KLNK...AS FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THOSE SITES AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR TO THE EAST...THOUGH
DO HAVE SCT CU THIS EVENING OVER THOSE SITES.
MAYES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER AND IF A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
AT 20Z...THE COLD FRONT HAD FINALLY MADE IT INTO NORFOLK AND THEIR
TEMPERATURES WERE BEGINNING TO FALL. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE LOW
CLOUDS HAD MADE IT INTO THE THE ONEILL AREA AND TEMPERATURES WERE
ONLY IN THE 50S. WINDS IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF NEBRASKA WERE
QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH IN SPOTS.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE HIGHER UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S DEGREE DEWPOINTS AT 20Z EXTENDED FROM BEATRICE TO OMAHA
AND THESE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE 4KM WRF HAD
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE 18Z NAM WAS DRY...THE
LATEST RUC HAD SOME STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD FAIRBURY AND THE GFS
HAD AN AREA SIMILAR TO THE 4KM WRF...BUT SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST
AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT AND
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS GOOD INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PARAMETERS DO
NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE IN THIS AREA. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK AND
THE SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED BASED ON CONDITIONAL FACTORS AS
SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING THEY COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE WINDY
CONDITIONS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45...BUT HAVE NOT GONE
WITH A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOME OF
THESE MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
THE SOUTHERN ENERGY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CLOSE OFF AND LIFT
NORTH. THIS WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OUT
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY....THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY CONDITIONS...SOUTHEAST BREEZES
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO
PUSH TO FRONT INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA...MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AND DRY WEATHER AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
643 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN THIS THIS
EVENING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH A FEW HOURS
EARLIER. SOME SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL HELP BRING SOME RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH AS MODELS DIFFER WILDLY WITH RAIN POSSIBILITIES.
STRATUS SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED AND ARE QUITE WARM.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS
SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING...BUT HAS HELD OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO INCREASE TO THE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR WEST. WILL LEAVE THE WIND
ADVISORY AS IS.
THE POSITION OF THE FRONT IS KEY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE CURRENT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE THE NAM AND GFS HAVE IT A
BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THE BEST MUCAPES ARE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE OVER 1000J/KG CAPES FAR
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS STARTS TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND PUSHES
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD.
LOOKING AT THE TIME FRAME STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION FROM A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHOWING THE LOW CENTERED
OVER THE PANHANDLES OF TX/OK...BUT MORE VARIANCES START TO SHOW UP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM DOESNT
MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS TO THE
EAST EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST REGION UP INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS...AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TO RANGE IN LOCATION FROM
SC KS TO WRN OK. INCREASED LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL HELP WITH THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS INCREASED LOW/MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW SHIFTS INTO
THE CWA. DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WED
EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE MODELS/SREF PROBS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
LINGERING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA. EXPECTING
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY N/NE WINDS AS THE MAIN SFC LOW
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW/MID 50S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT
PUSHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE MO RIVER...AND PUSHED POPS BACK WEST TO
INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LATEST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT DRY. SEE A SLIGHT BUMP IN HIGHS BUT TEMPS REMAIN ON THE
RELATIVELY COOL SIDE /COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL NEAR
OR ABOVE AVG/...WITH THE CWA REMAINING ON THE WRN/SRN FRINGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...AND AM EXPECTING LOWER 60S.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND EXPAND FURTHER EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS VARY SOME THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THIS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ELONGATED LOW OVER WRN/CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE THE EC SHOWS ANY LOW
LOCATED OFF THE PAC NW COAST. KEPT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT POPS GO ALL
THE WAY SOUTH TROUGH THE CWA WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW MORE
COVERAGE. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SET UP JUST WEST OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY...AND PUSH THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MUCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 7-800 J/KG...SO THREAT OF SOME
STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
KEPT THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
DRY...THOUGH THE GFS TRIES TO LINGER SOME POPS IN THE EAST EARLY ON
SAT MORNING. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS DO VARY SOME
ON THE TIMING. EC IS ON THE QUICKER SIDE...WITH THE FRONT CLEARING
THE CWA SAT MORNING...WHILE THE GFS WOULD BE MORE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOOKS TO BE BREEZY DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND THE FRONT. MORE ZONAL/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS FOR SUN/MON WITH A RIDGE SET UP OVER THE
SRN/SWRN CONUS...WITH NO NOTABLE SYSTEM LOOKING TO PASS THROUGH.
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND IS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A PLEASANT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. MONDAY COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
WINDS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...BUT STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER NICE DAY
WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039-046-060-
061-072-073-082-083.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-017.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
638 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.UPDATE...
THE HIGH WIND THREAT HAS ENDED AS MIXING HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE
FALLING. WINDS AT THE MERRIMAN PROFILER HAVE FALLEN TO 45 KTS AND
THE KLNX VAD WIND PROFILER INDICATES A DEEP LAYER OF 40 TO 50 KT
WINDS SUPPORTING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SO THE HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH LOCAL IFR AROUND KONL.
TOWARD MORNING...IFR MAY DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD SOUTH OF I-80 AS A
BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES. MVFR SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-80 THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING NORTH
OF I-80.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE TRACKING TOO CLOSE TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NCNTL NEB FOR STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP. SO THAT PORTION
OF THE WIND ADZY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NEITHER THE RUC NOR THE HRRR
INDICATE 45 MPH GUST BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A DECISION MAY NEED TO BE MADE ON WHETHER TO CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY ALONG HWY 281. THE MODELS ARE TRACKING THE SFC LOW FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO PERHAPS PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM DEVELOPING IN
THAT REGION. OTHERWISE THE HIGH WIND WARNING CAN CONTINUE
OPERATING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB. HIGH WINDS MIGHT DEVELOP
EASTWARD UNTIL 00Z AS MERRIMAN PROFILER SHOWS 2 GATES OF 55KT AT
19Z. WITH CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS TX AND THE MODELS
INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SWRN NEB.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NM/NW TEXAS TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO SHOOT A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS NORTHWARD
INTO SRN NEB. THE MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL FALL
APART FAIRLY QUICKLY AS IT MOVES NORTH. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
INTO PARTS OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB PRODUCING AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS APPEARS TO SUFFERING QPF FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW 20 UBARS OF LIFT EXTENDING UPWARD TO
OVER 500 MB AND THE QPF LOOKS OVERDONE. A 4-WAY BLEND OF
NAM...GEM...ECM AND GFS WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH
SUGGESTED DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER A PERIOD OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
SITUATED ACROSS THE WRN U.S.. STRATUS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTN AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AS THIS DISTURBANCE LIFT
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A PV15 ANOMALY WILL BE OPERATING IN TANDEM
WITH THE DISTURBANCE AND A DRYLINE BULGE SHOULD DEVELOP FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR ABOVE 25KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA /FROM KOGA TO KTIF TO KONL/ WILL SEE THE HIGHER WINDS
PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS.
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
LEADING TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND MVFR CEILINGS. THERE
ARE MIXED SIGNALS ON THE HEIGHT OF THIS CLOUD LAYER. SO ALTHOUGH
FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA...DO HAVE A CONSIDERATE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLOUD HEIGHT. NAM WOULD SAY IFR
CEILINGS WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS WOULD ACTUALLY RAISE THE CEILINGS TO
ABOUT 5K FEET. AT THIS TIME...KEPT A STABLE FORECAST WITH CEILINGS
AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF AT 2500 FT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT
/6 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ056>058-069-070.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-008-009-024>027-036>038-059-094.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ022-
023-035-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AT ALL TAF SITES.
FRONT HAD ALREADY REACHED KOFK...AND WILL REACH KLNK/KOMA WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS LAG JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
KOFK LIKELY TO BE RIGHT AROUND 1KFT BY 02Z...AND MVFR STRATUS
MOVING INTO KOMA/KLNK BY 06-08Z. MODELS INDICATE STRATUS WILL
LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH CIGS LIKELY LIFTING ABOVE MVFR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL MIXING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. DID KEEP RAIN/CB OUT OF
KOMA/KLNK...AS FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THOSE SITES AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR TO THE EAST...THOUGH
DO HAVE SCT CU THIS EVENING OVER THOSE SITES.
MAYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER AND IF A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
AT 20Z...THE COLD FRONT HAD FINALLY MADE IT INTO NORFOLK AND THEIR
TEMPERATURES WERE BEGINNING TO FALL. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE LOW
CLOUDS HAD MADE IT INTO THE THE ONEILL AREA AND TEMPERATURES WERE
ONLY IN THE 50S. WINDS IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF NEBRASKA WERE
QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH IN SPOTS.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE HIGHER UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S DEGREE DEWPOINTS AT 20Z EXTENDED FROM BEATRICE TO OMAHA
AND THESE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE 4KM WRF HAD
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE 18Z NAM WAS DRY...THE
LATEST RUC HAD SOME STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD FAIRBURY AND THE GFS
HAD AN AREA SIMILAR TO THE 4KM WRF...BUT SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST
AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT AND
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS GOOD INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PARAMETERS DO
NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE IN THIS AREA. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK AND
THE SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED BASED ON CONDITIONAL FACTORS AS
SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING THEY COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE WINDY
CONDITIONS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45...BUT HAVE NOT GONE
WITH A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOME OF
THESE MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
THE SOUTHERN ENERGY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CLOSE OFF AND LIFT
NORTH. THIS WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OUT
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY....THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY CONDITIONS...SOUTHEAST BREEZES
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO
PUSH TO FRONT INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA...MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AND DRY WEATHER AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
607 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.UPDATE...
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH LOCAL IFR AROUND KONL.
TOWARD MORNING...IFR MAY DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD SOUTH OF I-80 AS A
BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES. MVFR SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-80 THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING NORTH
OF I-80.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE TRACKING TOO CLOSE TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NCNTL NEB FOR STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP. SO THAT PORTION
OF THE WIND ADZY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NEITHER THE RUC NOR THE HRRR
INDICATE 45 MPH GUST BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A DECISION MAY NEED TO BE MADE ON WHETHER TO CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY ALONG HWY 281. THE MODELS ARE TRACKING THE SFC LOW FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO PERHAPS PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM DEVELOPING IN
THAT REGION. OTHERWISE THE HIGH WIND WARNING CAN CONTINUE
OPERATING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB. HIGH WINDS MIGHT DEVELOP
EASTWARD UNTIL 00Z AS MERRIMAN PROFILER SHOWS 2 GATES OF 55KT AT
19Z. WITH CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS TX AND THE MODELS
INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SWRN NEB.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NM/NW TEXAS TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO SHOOT A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS NORTHWARD
INTO SRN NEB. THE MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL FALL
APART FAIRLY QUICKLY AS IT MOVES NORTH. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
INTO PARTS OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB PRODUCING AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS APPEARS TO SUFFERING QPF FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW 20 UBARS OF LIFT EXTENDING UPWARD TO
OVER 500 MB AND THE QPF LOOKS OVERDONE. A 4-WAY BLEND OF
NAM...GEM...ECM AND GFS WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH
SUGGESTED DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER A PERIOD OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
SITUATED ACROSS THE WRN U.S.. STRATUS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTN AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AS THIS DISTURBANCE LIFT
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A PV15 ANOMALY WILL BE OPERATING IN TANDEM
WITH THE DISTURBANCE AND A DRYLINE BULGE SHOULD DEVELOP FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION...
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR ABOVE 25KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA /FROM KOGA TO KTIF TO KONL/ WILL SEE THE HIGHER WINDS
PERSIST THE LONGEST...WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS.
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
LEADING TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND MVFR CEILINGS. THERE
ARE MIXED SIGNALS ON THE HEIGHT OF THIS CLOUD LAYER. SO ALTHOUGH
FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA...DO HAVE A CONSIDERATE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLOUD HEIGHT. NAM WOULD SAY IFR
CEILINGS WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS WOULD ACTUALLY RAISE THE CEILINGS TO
ABOUT 5K FEET. AT THIS TIME...KEPT A STABLE FORECAST WITH CEILINGS
AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF AT 2500 FT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ057-058-
069-070.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005-
006-008-009-024>027-036>038-059.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004-022-023-
056-094.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004-094.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ056.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NEZ022-023.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ035-
071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1040 PM EDT MON APR 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS THIS FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM MONDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NE-E SURGE IS NOW
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA. THIS SURGE AT THIS TIME BEST
ILLUSTRATED WITH 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY TRENDS OVERLAID WITH
LAPS SFC WIND FIELDS. LOOK FOR A MUCH MORE STABLE...COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD THE ILM CWA. THE COOLER AND DRIER PORTIONS OF
THIS AIR MASS WILL LIE ACROSS THE NE PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. WITH
THE SFC FRONT STALLING ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...A SHALLOWER
COOL/DRY AIR MASS CHANGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE SC PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LOWER MINS BEING FORECAST ACROSS THE ILM
NC CWA...WITH ILM SC LOWS AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 DEGREES HIER THEN THE
ILM NC CWA. NULL POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. NAMBUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL FEW TO SCT SC
MAINLY FOR THE ILM SC CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL STICK WITH A
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OFF TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH
EARLY TUESDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON. SOME MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ENSUE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A SHORT AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL HOLD ON FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH SOME
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS EMANATING FROM TEXAS...AND
DEEPENING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES THEY MAY BE
ABLE TO SERVE AS SOME WEAK FORCING LOCALLY. BARRING THIS POSSIBILITY
MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ADVECTION OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TUESDAY NIGHT VERY MILD
ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAKENED ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING CLEARER PASSAGE OF
SOME WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS. A PREFRONTAL PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL TEND
TO FOCUS MOST OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN ZONES
INITIALLY. HOWEVER SINCE STORMS WILL HAVE A WELL DEFINED EASTWARD
MOTION THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT GRADIENT IN FCST POPS AT THIS
TIME. QPF WILL BE HIGHER OVER WRN ZONES (ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE LOW).
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE SEEING A
HIGH IN THE LOW 80S. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
LOOKS QUITE MOISTURE-CHALLENGED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A MID LEVEL CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS EARLY FOLLOWED BY BRIEF
RIDGING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE PERIOD SUBTLE TROUGHING WILL
MOVE ACROSS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE FOR FRIDAY TRANSITIONING TO A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY AS THE LATEST GFS...AND PAST COUPLE OF CYCLES FOR THAT
MATTER SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA THEN OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF QUICKLY. THE ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLES ARE SIMILAR BUT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. I HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY MATCHING HPC AND INCREASED POPS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING TO ADDRESS SLOWER TIMING WITH A SYSTEM THAT REMAINS CLOSED
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BEFORE REBOUNDING QUICKLY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING COUPLED WITH THE BEST RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 40S CWA WIDE. SOME CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS COULD SEE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW 45.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...DYING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE A
FACTOR...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE
PROFILES. LIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...CONTINUED VFR WITH VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.
ANY CONVECTION AT ALL WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG A
STALLED FRONT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO MVFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM MONDAY...POST FRONTAL NE-E SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ILM WATERS...AND IS PROGGED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT BUOY OBS AND HRRR WIND OUTPUT INDICATE SPEEDS
OF AROUND 15 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY DOWN TO
10-15 KT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WHERE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME AND THE
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE ENDS. LOOK FOR SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THRUOUT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SEAS PRIMARILY A REFLECTION OF SHORT PERIOD
WIND DRIVEN WAVES RUNNING AT 4-5 SECOND PERIODS...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
UNDERLYING AND WEAK 1 FT OR LESS EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT A 10
SECOND PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY AFTERNOON BRINGING
VEERING AND PERHAPS DECREASING WINDS. VEERING CONTINUES TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A MORE DEFINED SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. NO REAL SWELL
ENERGY ON THE RADAR SO SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT.
WEDNESDAY BRINGS A PREFRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ADD ABOUT A FOOT TO THE PREDOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW INITIALLY WILL VEER A BIT TO MORE
TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS WELL TO
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM SO WE COULD SEE WINDS VEER EVEN MORE THROUGH FRIDAY
THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. AS
USUAL SURGES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME BUT SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WAVEWATCH SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET EARLY TO 4-7 FEET LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
STRONGER FETCH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HOEHLER
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...KEEBLER
AVIATION...LOEWENTHAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
144 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
DRY WEATHER SETTLING IN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT
PARTIALLY INTO NC...DROPPING FROM THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE IS BASICALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF. THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION IS AIDING THE COLD FRONTS
PUSH SOUTHWARD...AND COULD REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA BY MIDNIGHT THROUGH 1 AM SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN 1ST
PROGGED WITH HRRR AND AN EARLIER NAM MODEL RUN. HRRR INDICATES 1
MORE POTENTIAL MINI ROUND OF CONVECTION TO PUSH THROUGH IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
ROUGHLY 2 AM SUNDAY. LOOKING AT NAM 1K-8H PARTIAL THICKNESS PACKING
AND HRRR HRLY WINDS...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA BETWEEN 1AM AND 7AM SUNDAY. LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO VEER
TO THE N-NE ALONG WITH A MINI CAA SURGE THAT WILL ONLY LAST THRU
MIDDAY SUNDAY B4 SHUTTING OFF. WITH THREAT OF PCPN INTO THE EARLY AM
HRS OF SUNDAY AND CLOUDS STICKING AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. HAVE KEPT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT A MINIMUM WITH AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF STRATUS DECK UP THRU 1-2 HRS AFTER
DAYBREAK. HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS STABLE AFTER INCREASING A DEGREE
OR 3 EARLIER...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERNMOST LOCALES WHERE THE FROPA
WILL COINCIDE WITH DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. NVA AND SOME DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS OF THE COLUMN KEEP SUNDAY SUNNY...BUT TEMPS WILL WARM WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH LACK OF ANY CAA AND ENHANCED RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEPS MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND SPAWNS A SURFACE LOW
IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH TRIES TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. WITH N/NW FLOW ALOFT...ANTICIPATE THIS FRONT TO WORK ALL THE
WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA BY AFTN. DURING FROPA...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT INCREASING SATURATION IN
THE 800-500MB LAYER. FORCING IS NOT STRONG...BUT WILL ADD A SCHC POP
FOR TSTMS MONDAY...DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN.
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMP FORECAST MONDAY AS
WELL...WITH 850MB TEMPS POSSIBLY FALLING THROUGH PEAK
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE ZONES. EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S IN THE TYPICAL WARM PEE DEE LOCATIONS...TO AROUND 80 IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...EVEN WITH FAVORED DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING OCCURRING.
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL RAMP POP BACK UP TO SCHC ACROSS THE SOUTH. MINS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA...TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...AMPLITUDE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR THE EXTENDED AS A LARGE MID LEVEL CYCLONE
WILL BE WOBBLING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INITIALLY WITH RIDGING
JUST WEST OF OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL RESIDE JUST TO
THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE GETTING WASHED OUT WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INCREASING THE WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS IN
PLACE...THIS AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY. FINALLY
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE MAIN SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS. BOTTOM LINE...I
HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY INCREMENTALLY
BASED ON A DIURNAL SCENARIO. THE NEW DAY...SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AT
THIS POINT BUT THE INHERIT DIFFICULTIES OF FORECASTING A CLOSED
SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT IN TIME MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE DRY
FORECAST.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS
THE BOARD TO MATCH GUIDANCE AND ADJACENT OFFICES BUT OVERALL TRENDS
OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE REMAIN INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. THE CONVECTION WILL
BE WANING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INTO DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR AN
IFR/NEAR MVFR CEILING. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BUT LESS
LIKELY. THE STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT AROUND 14Z...BUT TAKE A BIT
LONGER WITH THE NORTHEAST WIND SURGE. WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST
NORTHEAST...THEN SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE RESULTANT WIND FROM A WEAK TO MODERATE SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...LATEST OBSERVATIONS OVER THE ILM NC WATERS
INDICATE SEAS STILL RUNNING WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. THE SCA WILL REMAIN THRU MIDNIGHT WHICH IS
AMPLE TIME FOR THESE SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FURTHER SUBSIDE SEAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE ILM WATERS BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7
AM SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N-NE AFTER FROPA AND AID IN
KNOCKING DOWN THE BUILT UP SHORT PERIOD SW WIND DRIVEN SEAS FROM THE
PAST 1-2 DAYS. COULD SEE THE LAST ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVE OFF THE
MAINLAND THROUGH 2 AM SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A N-NE MINI SHORT
LIVED COLD SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...LASTING THROUGH MID TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED OFFSHORE AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH N/NE WINDS ONGOING ACROSS THE WATERS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTN AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT...VEERING TO THE SW THROUGH THE EVE AS A
PRE FRONTAL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA AND INCREASING RAPIDLY TO
15-20 KTS SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH DURING MONDAY...AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM
SW TO N...THEN NE MONDAY NIGHT...ALL AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KTS.
LACK OF ANY MEANINGFUL SWELL WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM MEANS THAT
SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND DRIVEN...2-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COMBINATION OF NE AND SW CHOP SUNDAY...BECOMING
DOMINATED BY NE WAVE ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MAIN EVENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY WILL BE THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BRING ALL WINDS AROUND TO NORTHEAST BUT FOR
MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS WILL BE DIVIDED BY THE FRONT. FOR EARLIER IN THE
PERIOD...EASTERLY WINDS INITIALLY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING LATER TUESDAY AND PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 2-4 FEET WITH WINDS WAVES DOMINATING THE SPECTRUM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH/COLBY
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL/COLBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
725 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...WILL CANCEL THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY SINCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEVER ADVECTED THAT FAR
NORTH. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS THIS AREA IS NOW
MINIMAL CONSIDERING SUNRISE HAS OCCURRED. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE ADVISORY STILL HAS DENSE FOG.
&&
.AVIATION...LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KBJI INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS. THIS IS STILL A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT FARGO. KTVF/KGFK/KDVL APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE VFR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012/
DISCUSSION...THE DENSE FOG IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
ADVECTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST ACCORDING TO WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS. THE HRRR IS DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH THIS
FOG...AND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE FORECAST. ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VALLEY CITY TO GRAND FORKS
TO BAUDETTE LINE. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...AND THESE WILL BE NORTH OF THE DENSE FOG AREA. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE
VALLEY CITY...FARGO...AND GRAND FORKS AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012/
SHORT TERM (SUN-TUE)...INTERESTING FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE
CHALLENGES. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ON MONDAY WITH TIMING OF
FRONT. GEM/ECMWF SLOW WHILE NAM/GFS QUICKER. ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE SLOW SOLUTION...BUT HAD BEEN AN OUTLIER UNTIL
THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS WITH THE GEM TRENDING SLOWER. WILL HAVE TO
FOLLOW A BLEND.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER RIDGING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE (WARM
AIR ADVECTION) POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EXITING
THE NE FA BY NOON. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (LOW CLOUDS/FOG) BACK
INTO THE REGION FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FOLLOWING HRRR...EXPECT
THESE CIGS TO ADVECT INTO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN FA BY
12Z...THEN SCATTER WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG SE WINDS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE UNTIL MID-MORNING...AND
WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. SO FAR DENSE FOG
IS NOT TOO WIDESPREAD...BUT HRRR SUGGESTS THAT DENSE FOG WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 05Z. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PARAMETERS SUGGEST JUST BELOW. WITH SOLAR AND
GOOD MIXING...EXPECT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL...WITH MAX TEMPS
AROUND 80F ACROSS THE SW FA TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NE FA.
EXPECTED TEMP VALUES ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE RECORD
HIGHS.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. STRONG 850MB JET WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING MODEL COMPROMISE FOR
TIMING...BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY...FROM 06Z MON INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 850MB CAPE
1000-1500 J/KG INTO THE EARLY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS SE FA COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SEVERE HAIL (SPC HAS A 5%
PROBABILITY)...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL. UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS ANYWHERE ON MONDAY...BUT HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE IN MINNESOTA COUNTIES (AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE PWATS
ARE HIGHEST). CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPS ON MONDAY (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL).
RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND TEMPS BEGIN TO
TREND WARMER AGAIN.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...RIDGING DOMINATES INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
TO THE EAST ALLOWING SW FLOW ALOFT. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND WETTER BY SATURDAY IF MODELS HAVE TIMING
CORRECT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ038-039-
049-052-053.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ003-016-
017-023-024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.DISCUSSION...THE DENSE FOG IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
ADVECTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST ACCORDING TO WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS. THE HRRR IS DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH THIS
FOG...AND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE FORECAST. ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VALLEY CITY TO GRAND FORKS
TO BAUDETTE LINE. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...AND THESE WILL BE NORTH OF THE DENSE FOG AREA. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE
VALLEY CITY...FARGO...AND GRAND FORKS AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHEAST
FROM WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR TO THE NORTH/WEST THESE CONDITIONS WILL
ADVECT. CURRENT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SURE BET
WILL BE KBJI AND KFAR...WHILE KGFK AND KTVF WILL BE ON THE
EDGE...AND KDVL SHOULD REMAIN VFR. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ALL
SITES VFR BY 18Z. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012/
SHORT TERM (SUN-TUE)...INTERESTING FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE
CHALLENGES. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ON MONDAY WITH TIMING OF
FRONT. GEM/ECMWF SLOW WHILE NAM/GFS QUICKER. ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE SLOW SOLUTION...BUT HAD BEEN AN OUTLIER UNTIL
THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS WITH THE GEM TRENDING SLOWER. WILL HAVE TO
FOLLOW A BLEND.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER RIDGING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE (WARM
AIR ADVECTION) POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EXITING
THE NE FA BY NOON. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (LOW CLOUDS/FOG) BACK
INTO THE REGION FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FOLLOWING HRRR...EXPECT
THESE CIGS TO ADVECT INTO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN FA BY
12Z...THEN SCATTER WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG SE WINDS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE UNTIL MID-MORNING...AND
WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. SO FAR DENSE FOG
IS NOT TOO WIDESPREAD...BUT HRRR SUGGESTS THAT DENSE FOG WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 05Z. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PARAMETERS SUGGEST JUST BELOW. WITH SOLAR AND
GOOD MIXING...EXPECT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL...WITH MAX TEMPS
AROUND 80F ACROSS THE SW FA TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NE FA.
EXPECTED TEMP VALUES ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE RECORD
HIGHS.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. STRONG 850MB JET WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING MODEL COMPROMISE FOR
TIMING...BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY...FROM 06Z MON INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 850MB CAPE
1000-1500 J/KG INTO THE EARLY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS SE FA COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SEVERE HAIL (SPC HAS A 5%
PROBABILITY)...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL. UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS ANYWHERE ON MONDAY...BUT HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE IN MINNESOTA COUNTIES (AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE PWATS
ARE HIGHEST). CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPS ON MONDAY (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL).
RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND TEMPS BEGIN TO
TREND WARMER AGAIN.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...RIDGING DOMINATES INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
TO THE EAST ALLOWING SW FLOW ALOFT. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND WETTER BY SATURDAY IF MODELS HAVE TIMING
CORRECT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ027-029-
030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>003-
006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
349 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RECORD WARMTH AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST FOR TODAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WITH MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FOR THIS MORNING ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AS STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST AS PROGGED BY
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...AS OF 08
UTC...BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA...WITH TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHEAST ALBERTA...WITH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND A WARM FRONT FROM NEAR HAVRE
MONTANA THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE OVERALL
PROPAGATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...WITH THE COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER CLOSER TO 18 UTC...WITH
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AT THAT TIME EXTENDING FROM APPROXIMATELY
CROSBY THROUGH LINTON. NEAR TO RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AND MIXING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWN BELOW ARE FORECAST
HIGHS AND RECORDS FOR TODAY FOR SELECT LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
SITE FORECAST RECORD YEAR
DICKINSON 76 74 1964
MINOT 78 72 1928
BISMARCK 82 75 1976
JAMESTOWN 78 78 1907
WILLISTON 70 72 1991
OVERALL THE DETERMINISTIC AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUITE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND CHOSE TO GO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE THE CONSENSUS GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF BROWN VEGETATION
ENHANCING MIXING HEIGHTS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE AS FAR EAST
AS NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WIND FIELD BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH THE 01/00 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A WEAK INVERSION NEAR 800-750 MB...WHICH WILL LIMIT
MIXING HEIGHTS. THAT SAID...POST FRONTAL WINDS SUSTAINED TO NEAR
20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT WITH POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
60S AND 70S. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY FUELS AND
LACK OF GREEN UP....VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH MAY NOT SEE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
THE EARLY EVENING...AND THUS NOT MEET CRITERIA. HOWEVER...IT WILL
BE CLOSE AND WILL LEAVE THE WARNING AS IS FOR NOW.
FOR TONIGHT...STRONG ISALLOBARIC FORCING VIA AN 8-10 MB/6 HR
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO STAY MIXED AFTER SUNSET. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHERE LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND MAGNITUDE IS POSSIBLE EVEN
AFTER SUNSET...WHICH IS OF CONCERN FOR ANY ONGOING FIRES THAT MAY
START TODAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MIXING CWA WIDE...FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS OF 01/00 UTC NAM/GFS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH YIELDS
WIDESPREAD 40S FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA...WITH LOWS POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH GOOD
AFTERNOON MIXING CWA WIDE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...WITH RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT. GIVEN THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT AND TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT EVALUATE FURTHER.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...USED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW PATTERN WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS
AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO A POSSIBLE LATE
SEASON WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE WHEN EXACTLY THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WHAT THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE.
AS IS TYPICAL WITH HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SYSTEMS...THE ECMWF IS THE
SLOWEST SOLUTION RELATIVE TO THE GFS/GEM. IT PAINTS QPF ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHEREAS THE GFS/GEM IS ABOUT 12-18 HOURS FASTER BEGINNING PRECIP
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. WOULD LIKE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS
SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE IN THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WARRANTS A BROAD BRUSHING OF POPS FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WEST.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...ITS SURFACE REFLECTION IS
PROGGED TO GENERATE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRIMARILY SNOW EXPECTED NORTHWEST BY
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMOT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT E/SE WINDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND GUST AROUND 30 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
FOR KJMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA NEAR
MID DAY TODAY...AND PUSH AS FAR EAST AS NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD NEAR TO RECORDING BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 80S
ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...GOOD
MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH...AS RH VALUES FALL TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE FAR EASTERN TIER
OF COUNTIES IN THE RED FLAG WARNING MAY NOT SEE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING...AND THUS NOT MEET CRITERIA. HOWEVER...IT
WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL LEAVE THE WARNING AS IS FOR NOW. FOR
TONIGHT...STRONG WINDS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF SIMILIAR SPEEDS AS SEEN PRIOR TO
SUNSET LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND RH VALUES FALLING TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WITH
AFTERNOON MIXING. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH
VALUES WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. THE AREA OF MOST
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLY REACHING CRITICAL VALUES IS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...WHERE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT EVALUATE FURTHER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ009>012-017>023-031>036-040>047-050.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE...AYD
LONG TERM/AVIATION....TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
310 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SHORT TERM (SUN-TUE)...INTERESTING FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE
CHALLENGES. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ON MONDAY WITH TIMING OF
FRONT. GEM/ECMWF SLOW WHILE NAM/GFS QUICKER. ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE SLOW SOLUTION...BUT HAD BEEN AN OUTLIER UNTIL
THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS WITH THE GEM TRENDING SLOWER. WILL HAVE TO
FOLLOW A BLEND.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER RIDGING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE (WARM
AIR ADVECTION) POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EXITING
THE NE FA BY NOON. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (LOW CLOUDS/FOG) BACK
INTO THE REGION FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FOLLOWING HRRR...EXPECT
THESE CIGS TO ADVECT INTO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN FA BY
12Z...THEN SCATTER WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG SE WINDS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE UNTIL MID-MORNING...AND
WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. SO FAR DENSE FOG
IS NOT TOO WIDESPREAD...BUT HRRR SUGGESTS THAT DENSE FOG WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 05Z. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PARAMETERS SUGGEST JUST BELOW. WITH SOLAR AND
GOOD MIXING...EXPECT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL...WITH MAX TEMPS
AROUND 80F ACROSS THE SW FA TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NE FA.
EXPECTED TEMP VALUES ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE RECORD
HIGHS.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. STRONG 850MB JET WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING MODEL COMPROMISE FOR
TIMING...BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY...FROM 06Z MON INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 850MB CAPE
1000-1500 J/KG INTO THE EARLY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS SE FA COULD LEAD TO ISOLD SEVERE HAIL (SPC HAS A 5%
PROBABILITY)...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL. UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS ANYWHERE ON MONDAY...BUT HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE IN MINNESOTA COUNTIES (AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE PWATS
ARE HIGHEST). CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPS ON MONDAY (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL).
RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND TEMPS BEGIN TO
TREND WARMER AGAIN.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...RIDGING DOMINATES INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
TO THE EAST ALLOWING SW FLOW ALOFT. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND WETTER BY SATURDAY IF MODELS HAVE TIMING
CORRECT.
&&
.AVIATION...LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHEAST
FROM WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR TO THE NORTH/WEST THESE CONDITIONS WILL
ADVECT. CURRENT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SURE BET
WILL BE KBJI AND KFAR...WHILE KGFK AND KTVF WILL BE ON THE
EDGE...AND KDVL SHOULD REMAIN VFR. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ALL
SITES VFR BY 18Z. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
656 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS WELL
ALIGNED WITH THE GFS MODEL. THE GFS SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. A SWATH OF MOISTURE IS ALSO MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE WHOLE
AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST WITH TIME AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RETROGRADES SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY THE
500 MB RIDGE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FORCING AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT WEST AS WELL.
I WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER JUST IN CASE A RENEGADE CELL
DEVELOPS. I THINK THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND HAS REACHED THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
INTO MON EVENING. A WEAKENING LOW ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON OVERALL QPF FOR THIS EVENT
BUT STILL THINK MOST PLACES WILL SEE SOMETHING AT SOME POINT FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE EVENING. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR TSRA.
ANOTHER HIGH RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE CWA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
BRINGING DRIER AIR AND SHOULD END MOST OF THE SHRA THREAT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TUE EVENING. RIDGING REMAINS OVER AREA AND SHOULD KEEP DRY
WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS NOW TRYING
TO BRING CUTOFF UPPER LOW CLOSER TO SW OH SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHES NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THIS WILL TURN INTO A TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME UPPER LOW THAT FINDS A HOME IN OHIO.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FROST OR FREEZE THREAT FOR WED AND THU NIGHT
BUT RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE NORTH TO NE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP FROST AWAY SO REAL CONCERN WILL BE WHERE TEMPS MAY TRY TO DROP
TO 32 OR LESS IN THE INLAND EAST THESE NIGHTS. SOME MOISTURE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE SNOWBELT AREA FOR LATER WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
GETTING DOWN TO 32...THEREFORE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW
TEMPS WILL GO WED AND THU NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SYSTEM IS MOVING JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS
LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT SOUTH. FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. TIMING IS ON THE
EDGE. DID INCLUDE A CHANCE WEST SUNDAY AND MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
WENT CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURE. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND LOW HEADED TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONTS SEEM DIFFUSE SO THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY JUST SHIFT ONCE THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. ATTM NOT THAT
EXCITED ABOUT A LOT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS MOST OF THE
UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL BE IN AND OUT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND THEN TO
NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND MAY BE EVEN SOME IFR THINGS WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING
SOME SHOWERS...BUT ATTM THEY ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THE
FORECAST IS FOR THE CLOUDS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN DARK AND MIDNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS THE WINDS
AND WAVES WILL PICK UP...THUS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
ERIE STARTING AT 8 PM AND LASTING UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
AFTER THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR MONDAY EVENING
DECREASING THE WINDS AND WAVES AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST.
FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AT TIMES WILL OCCUR. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO LATE TUESDAY
AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN THE WINDS AND
WAVES COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. ON FRIDAY
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE RIDGE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL CAUSE A NORTHEAST
FLOW AND IT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE WAVES TO BE 3 TO 5 FEET.
ALL THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
325 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE THREAT
OF SHRA SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING OR CERTAINLY BY 1 TO 2
AM. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY OCCUR BUT OVERALL LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OCCURRING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE EAST CLOSE TO FREEZING POINT BY DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...THINK JUST ENOUGH WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
KEEP FROST FROM FORMING SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
INTO MON EVENING. A WEAKENING LOW ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON OVERALL QPF FOR THIS EVENT
BUT STILL THINK MOST PLACES WILL SEE SOMETHING AT SOME POINT FROM
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE EVENING. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR TSRA.
ANOTHER HIGH RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE CWA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
BRINGING DRIER AIR AND SHOULD END MOST OF THE SHRA THREAT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TUE EVENING. RIDGING REMAINS OVER AREA AND SHOULD KEEP DRY
WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS NOW TRYING
TO BRING CUTOFF UPPER LOW CLOSER TO SW OH SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHES NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THIS WILL TURN INTO A TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME UPPER LOW THAT FINDS A HOME IN OHIO.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FROST OR FREEZE THREAT FOR WED AND THU NIGHT
BUT RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE NORTH TO NE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP FROST AWAY SO REAL CONCERN WILL BE WHERE TEMPS MAY TRY TO DROP
TO 32 OR LESS IN THE INLAND EAST THESE NIGHTS. SOME MOISTURE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE SNOWBELT AREA FOR LATER WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
GETTING DOWN TO 32...THEREFORE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW
TEMPS WILL GO WED AND THU NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SYSTEM IS MOVING JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS
LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT SOUTH. FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. TIMING IS ON THE
EDGE. DID INCLUDE A CHANCE WEST SUNDAY AND MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
WENT CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURE. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND LOW HEADED TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONTS SEEM DIFFUSE SO THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY JUST SHIFT ONCE THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. ATTM NOT THAT
EXCITED ABOUT A LOT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS MOST OF THE
UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL BE IN AND OUT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND THEN TO
NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND MAY BE EVEN SOME IFR THINGS WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING
SOME SHOWERS...BUT ATTM THEY ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THE
FORECAST IS FOR THE CLOUDS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN DARK AND MIDNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS THE WINDS
AND WAVES WILL PICK UP...THUS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
ERIE STARTING AT 8 PM AND LASTING UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
AFTER THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR MONDAY EVENING
DECREASING THE WINDS AND WAVES AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST.
FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AT TIMES WILL OCCUR. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO LATE TUESDAY
AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN THE WINDS AND
WAVES COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. ON FRIDAY
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE RIDGE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL CAUSE A NORTHEAST
FLOW AND IT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE WAVES TO BE 3 TO 5 FEET.
ALL THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
MONDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
150 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO DRIFT IN
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GENERAL THINKING FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE (BELOW) REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY
CHANGES ARE FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND BLENDING.
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING STILL WELL NORTH OF THE CWA SO THINK MORE OF A SOUTH
TO SW FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL AT LEAST 19Z TO 20Z THEN SHIFT TO
NW AND NORTH SHOULD START NEAR LERI AND PUSH SOUTH REST OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES MORE WITH HEAT OF THE DAY EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SO AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH STILL SEE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS IN THE FAR SW BUT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STAY SW OF THE AREA WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIR
EXISTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ENDED PRECIP
QUICKLY ALTHOUGH DID HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST SOUTH...THIS
EVENING TO COVER ANY LINGERING PRECIP. BY 03Z HOWEVER NAM SHOWS
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND POSITIVE CAPES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. PAST TWO HIGHS
HAVE NOT MANAGED TO CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS BUT BUFKIT SHOWS DRIER
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN SO WILL GO AHEAD AND BUY INTO THE CLEARING.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. EXPECT LAKESHORE AREAS TO REMAIN
CHILLY VS INLAND. ALSO EXPECT A SIZABLE TEMP GRADIENT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH 850MB TEMPS 0 TO 2C OVER ERIE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND 8 TO 10C OVER FDY. TUESDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO
14C WITH ALL OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A MILD AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WITH
CAPES SHOWN ON THE NAM AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL LIKELY BE STORMY SO
WEST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING POST COLD FRONT AND BY
MORNING...IF SKIES CLEAR COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST.
WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE INCREASED IN SIMILARITY OVER THE PAST DAY TO
BRING STRONGER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE NORTH FLOW
OFF THE LAKE OR DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES WITH A LIGHT GRADIENT...WILL
CAUSE FOR AT LEAST SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT
COOLER MAXES ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND LOW HEADED TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONTS SEEM DIFFUSE SO THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY JUST SHIFT ONCE THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. ATTM NOT THAT
EXCITED ABOUT A LOT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS MOST OF THE
UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL BE IN AND OUT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND THEN TO
NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND MAY BE EVEN SOME IFR THINGS WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING
SOME SHOWERS...BUT ATTM THEY ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THE
FORECAST IS FOR THE CLOUDS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT CROSS THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TODAY TO
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY POTENTIAL...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AROUND 15KT AND WAVES AROUND 3 FEET. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...AGAIN THIS SYSTEM LOOKS BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE ALSO. WHILE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHERLY BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY ALSO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE LAKE BY
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
SOUTH OVER THE LAKE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THE IS THE
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
BEFORE IT BECOMES SETTLED OVER THE LAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
135 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY
OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDING A TEMPORARY DRY PERIOD ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
DECAYING MCS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF I-75
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. GRADUAL CLEARING BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...COMBINED WITH AMPLE WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY LATER TODAY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PUSH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH
DEEP SHEAR TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE
NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PUSH SSE ACROSS OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
HAVE FAVORED THE 12Z RUC FOR THIS UPDATE FOR TEMPS AND STORM
TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STALL OUT OVER THE TN VLY OVERNIGHT. WL BUMP POPS UP TO LKLY
EARLY ACRS THE SE WHERE BEST FORCING WL EXIST AND THEN TAPER
PRECIP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
DURING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
WIND AND HAIL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE FA MONDAY PROVIDING
A TEMPORARY DRY PERIOD. HAVE TRENDED MONDAYS HIGHS A LTL COOLER ON
MONDAY...FROM THE MID 60S NE TO THE MID/UPR 70S SOUTHWEST. THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WL BUILD E INTO THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE TO TRACK THRU
THE SRN GREAT LAKES. FRONT BOUNDARY TO PIVOT BACK NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LATE MON NIGHT/TUE AND THEN COLD FRONT TO DROP BACK DOWN
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TUES NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND HOW ACTIVE THE INITIAL WARM FRONT
WL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUES. HAVE CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS RE-DEVELOPING
LATE WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY ACRS W CENTRAL OHIO. THEN ALLOW CHC
POPS TO LAY OUT E-W ON TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF FRONT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY. ETA/GFS SOLNS
ARE FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT IN...WHICH THE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK.
GOING WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN HAVE WARM TEMPS WITH TUESDAYS
FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR N TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE FAVORED NON-GFS SOLUTION EARLY ON. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
A CLOSED LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THIS PASSES HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO
BUILD SOUTH OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL TREND
TOWARDS NORMAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER CLEARING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. EXACT TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE ARRIVAL OF
THESE STORMS...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT ANY TEMPOS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOT. THESE WILL LIKELY BE ADDED IN AMENDMENTS LATER ON...AFTER
THE STORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP. REGARDLESS...MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER STORMS.
WINDS WILL START OF SOUTHWESTERLY...THEN WILL VEER AS THE STORMS
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
BY MONDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KT.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WHERE CIGS DROP BELOW 3 KFT AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LATTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1040 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY
OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDING A TEMPORARY DRY PERIOD ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
DECAYING MCS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF I-75
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. GRADUAL CLEARING BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...COMBINED WITH AMPLE WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY LATER TODAY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PUSH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH
DEEP SHEAR TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...PARTICULARLY IF STORMS INTERACT WITH OTHER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE
NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PUSH SSE ACROSS OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
HAVE FAVORED THE 12Z RUC FOR THIS UPDATE FOR TEMPS AND STORM
TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STALL OUT OVER THE TN VLY OVERNIGHT. WL BUMP POPS UP TO LKLY
EARLY ACRS THE SE WHERE BEST FORCING WL EXIST AND THEN TAPER
PRECIP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
DURING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
WIND AND HAIL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE FA MONDAY PROVIDING
A TEMPORARY DRY PERIOD. HAVE TRENDED MONDAYS HIGHS A LTL COOLER ON
MONDAY...FROM THE MID 60S NE TO THE MID/UPR 70S SOUTHWEST. THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WL BUILD E INTO THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE TO TRACK THRU
THE SRN GREAT LAKES. FRONT BOUNDARY TO PIVOT BACK NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LATE MON NIGHT/TUE AND THEN COLD FRONT TO DROP BACK DOWN
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TUES NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND HOW ACTIVE THE INITIAL WARM FRONT
WL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUES. HAVE CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS RE-DEVELOPING
LATE WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY ACRS W CENTRAL OHIO. THEN ALLOW CHC
POPS TO LAY OUT E-W ON TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF FRONT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY. ETA/GFS SOLNS
ARE FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT IN...WHICH THE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK.
GOING WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN HAVE WARM TEMPS WITH TUESDAYS
FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR N TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE FAVORED NON-GFS SOLUTION EARLY ON. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
A CLOSED LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THIS PASSES HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO
BUILD SOUTH OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL TREND
TOWARDS NORMAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST...CONVECTION WILL ENTER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AS A WARM FRONTAL ZONE SETS UP THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE TO ILN TAF SITES
STARTING AT 12Z. CONVECTION WITH MVFR MAY DIMINISH LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT
TRANSITIONS TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...BRINGING DRIER AIR AND AN
END TO THE CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
936 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS CIMARRON COUNTY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...AND ALLOWED IT TO EXPIRE FOR DALLAM AND HARTLEY COUNTIES.
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL DATA SHOW A TIGHT LOW-
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT/REINFORCING SURGE OF NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO
IMPACT THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT OBS
FROM KENTON...BOISE CITY...AND SPRINGFIELD CONTINUE TO SHOW ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS...AND KENTON JUST BRIEFLY HIT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA.
LET THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 9 PM. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS
THAN 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT.
ALSO ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. LINE OF CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AS PACIFIC COLD
FRONT OVERTOOK DRYLINE. THIS LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT MAX ROUNDING CLOSED
LOW OVER NM. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS VORT LOBE CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. SEVERE THREAT WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN HALF OF THE OK PANHANDLE...BUT
WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH THERE AS WELL LATER TONIGHT AS PACIFIC FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN CWA
EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST...SQUEEZING THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY EASTWARD.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ONE TIER OF COUNTIES WESTWARD.
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OK AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...WERE RETREATING TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTHEAST INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PIVOTING AROUND
CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NM. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT A LITTLE FARTHER EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE GETS OVERTAKEN
BY PACIFIC FRONT AND SHOVED EASTWARD.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM NEW MEXICO. THIS
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THE CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY 15
AND 20 TO 25 AND 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAINLY THIS EVENING AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS CUTOFF FROM THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR
CWA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVE SOUTHEAST AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST CWA UNDER A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
THE MID EVENING AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES
SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ALONG A DRYLINE AND THEN THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY
ROTATING AROUND IT AS WELL...SO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL PICK UP EACH TIME ONE THESE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
ON TUESDAY...WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EASTERN CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS DRYLINE WILL HOLD IN THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE WIND SHEAR ALOFT INCREASES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLING
SUNDAY/S HIGHS BACK 10 TO 15 DEGREES.
FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE WINDS
WILL THEN PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. THE CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CIMARRON.
&&
$$
11/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
634 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.UPDATE...
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ONE TIER OF COUNTIES WESTWARD.
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OK AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...WERE RETREATING TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTHEAST INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PIVOTING AROUND
CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NM. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT A LITTLE FARTHER EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE GETS OVERTAKEN
BY PACIFIC FRONT AND SHOVED EASTWARD.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM NEW MEXICO. THIS
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THE CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY 15
AND 20 TO 25 AND 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAINLY THIS EVENING AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS CUTOFF FROM THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR
CWA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVE SOUTHEAST AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST CWA UNDER A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
THE MID EVENING AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES
SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ALONG A DRYLINE AND THEN THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY
ROTATING AROUND IT AS WELL...SO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL PICK UP EACH TIME ONE THESE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
ON TUESDAY...WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EASTERN CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS DRYLINE WILL HOLD IN THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE WIND SHEAR ALOFT INCREASES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLING
SUNDAY/S HIGHS BACK 10 TO 15 DEGREES.
FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE WINDS
WILL THEN PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. THE CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CIMARRON.
&&
$$
11/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
617 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK WESTWARD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHILE THE SURFACE REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME FEEL WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
WILL LEAVE PREDOMINANT TS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT MAY INCLUDE A VCSH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
BOUNDARY SLOWS AND STALLS OVER THE METROPLEX. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
LIKELY BE AN EAST COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS AT DALLAS COUNTY
AIRPORTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF
THE CWA ALONG A DRYLINE...AS SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW
MEXICO ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST OF TAF SITES TONIGHT AS
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD FROM WEST TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...IF ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH
AS IT SPREADS EAST...WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR AN HOUR OR
2 AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME. THE UPPER LOW WILL ADVANCE EAST
TOMORROW AS ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE SWINGS EAST AROUND THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ENHANCES ACTIVITY ALONG THE DRYLINE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING. TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER AT
AREAS TERMINALS IS TRICKY DUE TO VARIATIONS IN MODEL HANDLING OF
BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES. RIGHT NOW A COMBINATION OF
NAM12...AND BOTH THE TT AND OUN WRF WILL BE USED...WITH THE IDEA
THAT THE I 35 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND MID DAY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL AREAS BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED LINE OF
STORMS LATE TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE DRYLINE AND PACIFIC FRONT PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
MAIN UPPER LOW FEATURE SITS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WEAK LOBE
THAT WAS NEAR TX COAST YESTERDAY HAS ROTATED NORTH AND SITS OVER
THE DFW METROPLEX. CIRCULATION AROUND THE WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE HAS FIRED OFF SEVERE STORMS IN EASTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ON NORTH WE FEEL THAT THE DRY
LINE WILL BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERAL SOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW PUSHING
EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST TO LIE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES ON
TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT PUSHES THE DRY LINE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THE DISAGREEMENT IS ABOUT HOW
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE LATEST RUC ACTIVATES THE DRY LINE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM
INITIATES DRY LINE CONVECTION WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DOES THE
LATEST HRRR. WITH SOME CU ALREADY DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
CWA...WILL STICK WITH OUR PREVIOUS SOLUTION WHICH AGREES WITH THE
RUC AND THE GFS FOR DRY LINE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES.
EITHER CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN IN SOME FORM OVERNIGHT AND
REINVIGORATE TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME HEATING...OR IT MAY DIE OUT
AND REGENERATE TOMORROW. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF A LINEAR FEATURE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE DRY
LINE PUSHES EAST. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR. STORMS SHOULD SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA
BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND POPS END SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...HOLDING THE DRY LINE BACK
ABOUT 8 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS...AND IF THIS OCCURS WE WOULD HAVE
TO ADD POPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND NORTH TX
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN A NEW FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA AND INCREASE THE POPS A BIT. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 81 54 80 55 / 40 60 40 5 0
WACO, TX 67 79 54 83 55 / 20 60 30 5 0
PARIS, TX 65 79 59 81 54 / 20 50 60 10 0
DENTON, TX 65 79 54 78 54 / 40 60 30 5 0
MCKINNEY, TX 66 81 54 80 55 / 30 60 40 5 0
DALLAS, TX 66 82 55 81 55 / 30 60 40 5 0
TERRELL, TX 66 80 60 80 55 / 20 60 50 10 0
CORSICANA, TX 67 81 61 81 55 / 20 60 50 10 0
TEMPLE, TX 67 78 58 84 55 / 20 60 30 5 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 64 77 53 81 52 / 50 40 10 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1149 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE
THE BELOW AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST MODELS DID NOT INDICATE ANY NEED FOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
STILL LOOK LIKELY.
HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012/
DISCUSSION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION BELOW HAS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE DRYLINE...IN THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST RUC INDICATES THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THUS...LOOK FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO DOMINATE
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY 06Z TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WATCH
FOR STRONGER SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT BUILDS EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
WHICH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE TOMORROW. HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW WITH
LOW TO UPPER 90S OVER THE CWA...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE LIFTS
FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
15
LONG TERM...
THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACNW COAST WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER AS THE LONG TERM OPENS BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING. THE LATEST RUNS SUGGEST THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DRYLINE
SETTING UP FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED GIVEN WEAKER
FORCING. STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT /DEPICTED BY H5-H3 Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE/ IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT BY WHICH TIME THE DRYLINE WILL BE RETREATING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY /SBCAPES OF 1500-3000/ BUT A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT MAY RESULT IN THE CAP HOLDING
STRONG AND LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL /ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY/...MUCH OF THE CHAGRIN
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CHASE COMMUNITY. I OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED POPS ON THE CENTRAL AND EAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
EXPANDED THEM WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SLOWER TIMING.
COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. I LOWERED MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S BUT
FEEL I MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ON THE WARM SIDE BASED ON H85
TEMPS. I AM NOT SOLD ON THE AGGRESSIVE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOWN BY THE GFS AND LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN
THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. WITH THAT SAID...I KEPT MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY AT OR JUST BELOW 80 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A VERY PLEASANT DAY. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...WARMING SLIGHTLY
/LOWER 50S/ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE
WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER WEST TX
FRIDAY EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT MY GUT SAYS THAT MOISTURE
RETURN WILL NOT BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT MORE THAN FEW HIGH BASED
STORMS. THUS...NO POPS WERE INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE WARM ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
THE GFS/DGEX DEPICT A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND...ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE CWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ALSO PUSHES H5 HEIGHTS UP NEAR 585DM WITH THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS
HEIGHTS AROUND 580DM WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. I WILL LET THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TEASE US OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BEFORE JUMPING ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER THE BIG
COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH
UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S CONTINUING...ACCOMPANIED BY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
MPH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF A
LINE FROM HASKELL TO STERLING CITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 20 FOOT
SOUTHWEST WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 65 96 65 85 52 / 0 0 0 20 30
SAN ANGELO 60 96 62 86 51 / 0 0 0 20 20
JUNCTION 62 93 64 87 51 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
HUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
205 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM GRAYSON COUNTY
INTO WILKES COUNTY WAS GRADUALLY DRIFTING EAST. AREAS RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR GUIDANCE HAD PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS TIMING. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG IN FOG THE
GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEY AND IN THE AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT HAD RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAD MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON 9PM OBS...CLOUD COVER AND THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
NAM AND LOCAL WRF HAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...AND REACHING AS FAR WEST AS
LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE. HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST
SINCE CEILINGS ARE ALREADY LOWERING JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING
TO MIX OUT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WERE SUGGESTING THAT CLOUDS MAY NOT
BECOME SCATTERED UNTIL AFTER 11AM.
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS
CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. RADAR HAS INDICATED THAT SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
VERY STRONG. THAT STATED...CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO STRONG BUT
SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING EARLY EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
CLOUD COVER TO DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...WEATHER FORECAST
MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES
WEDGED ALONG THE RIDGELINES. WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...AND WE
WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER. WITH PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT...EXPECT THAT ANY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL BURN OFF BY
10 AM...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHEAST U.S. UPPER TROF DEEPENS IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND SPARK A COMPLEX OF STORMS AS LOW LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND SE WV AND WEST OF I-77 WHERE HIGHEST POPS
WERE PLACED. INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND MIXING.
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN U.S. A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ESTABLISHED IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED HERE...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
EAST WITH A LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION...BUT IS QUICKLY FLATTENED BY A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COMES AROUND TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST USHERING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND POTENTIALLY A DECK
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION. ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY UNDER THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TUESDAY IS A TRICKY ONE AND HIGHS WILL DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SEEN. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO ADVANCE INTO OUR AREA...DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
THE COOLER LOCALLY DERIVED MOS FORECAST HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE
00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
A CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ALSO IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TO THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH GIVES US LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION.
SOME SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BASED ON
THE ECMWF FORECAST. FIRST...WITH THE SLOWER TIMING...NOW EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH A DEEP WEST...DOWNSLOPING FLOW...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES
THUR-SATURDAY AS A LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST...THEN EAST...FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE NE U.S.
WITH THE NAO FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVE AND THE GLOBAL WIND
OSCILLATION (GWO) IN A FAVORABLE PHASE FOR COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN U.S...THE COOLER ECMWF TEMPERATURES APPEAR
REASONABLE.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW...SHOWERS/RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE FAVORED EASTERN UPSLOPE
AREAS AND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF NEW ENGLAND
RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY MOIST FLOW FROM OFF ATLANTIC ALONG WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT KLYH AND KDAN. UPSLOPING WESTERLY MOIST FLOW
ALSO RESULTING IN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KBLF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AS STRONG INSOLATION HELPS TO MIX UP/OUT INVERSION LAYER.
ELSEWHERE AT KROA AND KBCB...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY FOG WITH LOCALIZED IFR TO
EVEN LIFR RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY...AND THIS THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE REFLECTED IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS...
SUCH AS AT/NEAR KLWB.
APPROACH OF NEXT UPSTREAM WEATHER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COOL
FRONT MAY BRING A THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT (SUNDAY NIGHT)...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS BACK
INTO MVFR RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER/ALONG THE MID APPALACHIANS
ON/BY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES AND MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST OVER THE STALLED FRONT...COMBINING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW
FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...MAY SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL MVFR
WEATHER...POTENTIALLY LOWER...INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/NF
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
225 PM PDT Sun Apr 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
The widespread wet weather over the past several days will come to
an end tonight leading to a dry start of the work week. A Pacific
cold front will move through the area Tuesday night and Wednesday
for more rain and mountain snow. The remainder of the week will
see cool temperatures with afternoon and evening showers. Next
weekend should be dry and warmer.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Afternoon instability convective showers will quickly die
off this evening along with the winds. The HRRR model (which has
done a great job with the convective line between Coulee Dam and
Spokane) is suggesting the formation of a convective line that
will move across the Spokane/Cd`A metro area around 7pm this
evening. Not enough confidence to hit the forecast hard but the
HRRR suggests it would be a graupel shower.
Winds are gusting to 35 mph but should be diminishing quickly so
will cancel the wind advisory with the afternoon forecast package.
Another minor wave has moved onto the Oregon coast today. Models
show the remnants of this wave tracking across northern Oregon and
then into the southern Panhandle. Will keep pops in the Panhandle
higher south of I-90. Any precip that does fall would all be in
the form of snow as snow levels come crashing down to the valleys
overnight. Light accumulations are possible in the valleys
south/east of Pullman. RJ
Monday through Tuesday night...High pressure will build over the
region on Monday for a warming and drying trend. This will be
followed by another deep low pressure system moving into the
region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Monday and Monday night the ridge axis will be over the Inland
Northwest Monday morning ans slide east through the day. The 12z
models were showing a weak wave moving through my southeast zones
overnight and early Monday morning, with the NAM being a bit
stronger with this feature. The 18z NAM is still showing the wave,
but not quite as robust. However with southwest flow and lingering
low level moisture some showers were kept in the forecast. For
the rest of Monday southerly winds will result in up-sloping flow into
the northern mountains. Some light showers will be possible, but
not widespread and only light accumulations are expected at best.
Otherwise the southerly flow will increase temperatures across the
region into the upper 40s to upper 50s. Winds will remain gusty
through the day, but less then Sunday.
Tuesday and Tuesday night the flow will back to almost southerly
as the upper level low currently moving through the Gulf of Alaska
moves off the west coast. Southerly flow with warm air advection
will increase into the 50s and 60s, which are 5 to 8 degrees
above normal. Moisture will increase along the Cascades through
the day as the southerly flow taps into deep atmospheric river.
PW`S are on the order of .50 to .60 which are 120-130 percent of
normal. With the upper level flow parallel to the front it will
take time for precipitation to cross the Cascade through the day
on Tuesday with little eastward movement expected until later in
the afternoon/evening when the following cold front moves through
the region. Snow levels start out above 4000 feet across the
northwest zones and over 5500 feet across the southeast Tuesday,
then drop below 2500 feet behind the cold front Tuesday night.
By this time, however, the heaviest precipitation should have
moved east in the warm sector. As such precipitation will be mainly
as rain with high elevation snow turning to snow with and behind
the front. Accumulations will only be a few to several inches near
the Cascade crest and less for the northern and eastern mountains.
/Tobin
Wednesday through Sunday: A longwave trough will settle into
the region on Wednesday and remain stationary over the Interior
West through much of the work-week courtesy of a blocking high,
downstream across the central US/Canada. In comparison to Tuesday,
temperatures will be on the downward trend with widely scattered
showers possible for any location, just about every day, through
Saturday; especially late afternoon coinciding with afternoon
heating. Models are in pretty good agreement regarding the
placement/timing of the mid-level trough but continue to struggle
resolving each shortwave circulating within. We have maintained the
highest PoPs across the Northeast Mountains of WA and N ID due to
breezy southwest flow initially however as each of these shortwaves
pivoting within the mean trough, become better resolved, we can
anticipate that each shortwave will organize larger clusters of
showers and moderate changes to PoPs are highly anticipated. The
upper-level trough will eventually fill and become replaced by
shortwave ridging as a second pacific wave or "kicker" approaches
the coast over the weekend. The evolution of this wave still
carries a lot of uncertainty but loose agreement indicates the
potential for seasonal temperatures and dry conditions to return
to close out the weekend into the start of the new week. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Afternoon showers will be most numerous in the Panhandle
and extreme eastern WA. Gusty winds will develop at most TAF sites
but should subside by late afternoon. Look for IFR cigs to develop
overnight at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE but these should lift by mid-morning
on Monday. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 31 52 39 62 39 45 / 20 10 0 10 60 60
Coeur d`Alene 31 49 36 61 38 44 / 30 10 0 10 70 70
Pullman 31 52 37 63 35 42 / 20 0 0 0 70 60
Lewiston 34 59 42 67 39 48 / 10 0 0 0 60 60
Colville 31 50 37 63 37 50 / 20 20 10 20 70 60
Sandpoint 30 47 35 60 38 44 / 40 10 10 10 70 70
Kellogg 31 45 33 59 36 41 / 40 20 10 10 80 90
Moses Lake 33 57 43 62 39 56 / 10 10 10 20 60 20
Wenatchee 36 56 43 56 35 54 / 10 10 10 40 40 20
Omak 31 54 40 58 35 53 / 10 10 10 60 50 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
855 AM PDT Sun Apr 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring rain, mountain snow and gusty winds
to the Inland Northwest today. Snow levels will be around 3000 feet
today which is a lower elevation than the last few days. The cooler
air mass will slow the rate of mountain snow melt, which should
decrease runoff into the rivers of north Idaho. Many swollen rivers
will begin to recede today. The Inland Northwest will experience a
break Monday and Tuesday however cool and unsettled weather will
return late Tuesday and linger through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Another quick update to the forecast. Intense snow shower
producing some brief accumulations this morning in the metro area.
But it is quickly fading on radar and moving east, so this won`t
last long. As this last wave moves into the Panhandle showers will
continue there all day.
Tougher call is what will happen behind this wave this afternoon.
On the one hand the models show dry air moving in and this is
confirmed by the dropping dew points at Wenatchee, Ellensburg, and
Yakima. This dry air will move east into the Spokane/Pullman area
this afternoon. So that will be working against afternoon showers.
The flip side is climatology and the NAM model. Typically with
this set up we will see afternoon showers, although they might
not produce measurable precipitation. NAM wants to do this. The
last run of the HRRR (10Z) doesn`t have as much coverage but it
did show the typical convergence lines of showers. So have kept in
the mention of showers this afternoon/evening. These could be rain
or snow with no accumulation.
Last item to address is the Wind Advisory. Winds are picking up in
southeast Washington and this will spread northward by mid day.
The problem is that the guidance is all consistent in suggesting
that winds will actually subside a bit late this afternoon, during
peak heating time. This typically isn`t good for strong winds so
the Advisory may have a tough time verifying in some locations.
Will stick with it since it will still be windy, maybe just not as
strong as previously thought. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
12z TAFS: Rain and snow showers will be widespread through 18z over
the Idaho Panhandle and far eastern Washington including the Spokane
area. Ceilings of 2000 feet or lower will likely accompany the
heaviest precipitation between 14z-17z. Ceilings will likely lift
quickly by late morning as gusty post-frontal winds develop from
Wenatchee to Spokane to Pullman. Gusts in the 30-35kt range will be
possible through 22z-24z. Winds should subside early in the evening
as the surface gradient between low pressure over Montana and high
pressure over Oregon weakens. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 44 31 52 38 61 39 / 100 20 10 10 10 60
Coeur d`Alene 43 31 50 35 61 38 / 100 30 10 10 10 70
Pullman 43 31 53 37 61 35 / 90 20 0 0 10 70
Lewiston 49 34 60 41 66 40 / 60 10 0 0 10 60
Colville 48 31 51 36 62 37 / 100 20 30 20 40 60
Sandpoint 42 30 47 34 58 38 / 100 40 20 10 10 70
Kellogg 38 31 46 33 58 36 / 100 40 20 10 10 80
Moses Lake 55 33 58 42 64 39 / 10 10 10 10 30 50
Wenatchee 51 36 56 42 58 35 / 10 10 10 10 50 40
Omak 51 31 55 39 58 35 / 20 10 20 40 60 50
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Idaho Palouse.
WA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Lower Garfield
and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
930 PM PDT SAT MAR 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING AND INLAND LATER TONIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
A STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY GIVE HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
CASCADES SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG WET FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD DIRECT HEAVY RAIN INTO THE
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE COOL WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AT 9PM LOW PRES EXTENDS ALONG THE WA AND NRN HALF OF
THE ORE COAST...THE LOW WILL SHIFT INLAND WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE BLUSTERY LATER TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH BECAUSE A PSCZ SETS UP OVER SEATTLE ON THE UW
WRFGFS I BELIEVE THE SSW WIND THROUGH THE PUGET SOUND BASIN SHOULD
NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG AS IT MIGHT IF THE GRADIENTS FROM THE RUC OR
NAM SLP FCSTS VERIFY. SHOWERS ARE INCREASING THIS EVENING...AND
THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL BURST OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE STRAIT AND
OVER THE NW INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AS DEPICTED IN THE UW MM5NAM...OR
OVER SW WA AND THEN THE CENTRAL CASCADES AS THE WRFGFS DEPICTS.
OVERALL THE BEST BET FOR HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
CASCADES FROM ABOUT 3AM TO 9AM WITH THE PSCZ...AND I THINK THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR STEVENS AND SNOQUALMIE SHOULD PROBABLY BE
SOMETHING LIKE 6-12 INCHES SUNDAY MORNING SO WE MAY NEED A SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THE MAIN PASSES SUN MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF LATER SUN MORNING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE WHICH IS NEAR 137W AT 9PM REACHES WRN
WA...WITH PRETTY STRONG WLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS AND STRONG
JETSTREAM. THAT SYSTEM IS QUICKLY OVERTAKEN BY MOISTURE FROM THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THE WARM ADVECTION MERGES WITH IT OVER WRN
WA SUN NITE. AFTER THAT THE STRONG WLY FLOW BUCKLES AND BACKS TO SSW
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WHICH
AFFECTS WRN WA ON MONDAY IS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OUT AT 155W
THIS EVENING WHICH DEVELOPS VERY RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH A DEEP LOW
WHICH HAPPENS GO FROM A 998MB CENTER THIS EVENING IN THE GFS TO A
968MB CENTER APPROACHING THE CHARLOTTES BY 12Z MON. PRECIP AMOUNTS
IN THE MODELS VARY. THE GFS HAS THE HEAVY RAIN GOING INTO VANCOUVER
ISLAND...THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS 36HR PCPN OF 3-9 INCHES
OVER THE OLYMPICS WHICH WOULD GIVE RIVER FLOODING FOR PROBABLY THE
SATSOP AND SKOKOMISH. ALSO SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. 19
.LONG TERM...A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FCST BUT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY MOST DAYS...TEMPS WILL STAY
BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL BE A GOOD PATTERN FOR SOME LATE SEASON
SKIING AND A VITAMIN D RECHARGE. 19
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A WET FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ON TAP FOR MON AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR THE OLYMPICS. THE LATEST NAM
SHOWS THE CASCADES GET MUCH LESS RAIN THAN THE OLYMPICS AND RIVERS
FLOWING OUT OF THE CASCADES WOULD SEE PRETTY MODEST RISES...WITH WET
SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 4KFT IN THE CASCADES LIKELY. THE OLYMPICS ON THE
OTHER HAND REALLY GET HIT BY THE NAM WITH 3-9 INCHES OF RAIN IN
36HRS. THE 18Z GFS HAD A MAX OF 3-6.5 INCHES...BUT THE 00Z SOLUTION
PUTS ALL THE HEAVY RAIN OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH JUST AN INCH OR
TWO FOR THE OLYMPICS. BEST BET NOW IS FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
OLYMPIC RIVERS BUT NO SOLUTIONS SUGGEST PROBLEMS FOR CASCADE RIVERS.
19
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS UNSTABLE WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW. CEILINGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT BACK DOWN TO THE 2000-3000
FOOT RANGE WITH THE INCREASING SHOWERS.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE COAST STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP CEILINGS IN THE 2000-3000 FOOT
RANGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY IN THE JET STREAM SHOULD
ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING AT
LEAST AREAS OF CEILINGS IN THE 2000-3000 FOOT RANGE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND WITH THE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.
KSEA...LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 09Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY AROUND 15Z TO THE 15 GUST 25 KNOT
RANGE. WINDS EASING IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS BOUNCING AROUND WITH
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MVFR CEILINGS A MAJORITY OF THE TIME
ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z. FELTON
&&
.MARINE...ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WESTERN
SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST ONSHORE
PUSH DEVELOPS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALES LIKELY FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FOR THE CENTRAL/EAST ENTRANCE AND HIGHER END SCA LEVEL
WINDS OVER OTHER WATERS. GRADIENTS WILL BRIEFLY EASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON IN THE AFTERNOON HELPS TO DECREASE ONSHORE GRADIENTS.
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PEGGED TO REACH THE AREA ON MONDAY. 00Z
GFS MODEL STILL SHOWS WARM FRONT LIFTING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH INCREASINGLY S-SE WINDS OVER THE COAST AND USUAL
INTERIOR ZONES. GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND EAST ENTRANCE. FELTON
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHEHALIS RIVER NEAR
GRAND MOUND IN THURSTON COUNTY.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND PUGET SOUND/
HOOD CANAL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...ADMIRALTY INLET...
ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD VISIT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
644 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
249 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST FROM THE
LOW ACROSS IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN TO THIS RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 02.12Z MODELS IS THAT
IT IS PRETTY MUCH GOING TO STAY IN PLACE AS IT IS BLOCKED FROM
MOVING EAST BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE SHOULD GET FLATTENED
SOME AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST PRODUCING SOME HEIGHT FALLS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. THE 02.00Z ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE 02.12Z NAM NOW HAS COME INTO
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES BY
LATE TONIGHT...IT WILL PRODUCE THOSE MINOR HEIGHT FALLS WITH
POSSIBLY UP TO 2 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EITHER TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OR NORTHERN IOWA AS IT
MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO GET LIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK TO MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING
NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT UP GLIDE OF 1 TO 4 UBAR/S ON
THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. A LOT OF THIS UP GLIDE WILL INITIALLY
GO INTO SATURATION AND BY THE TIME SATURATION OCCURS THE BEST UP
GLIDE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
THE WILD CARD IN WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IS THE
WARM FRONT. THE 02.12Z GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE
FRONT AROUND THE I90 CORRIDOR. THE NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE PAST THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
SCENARIO HAS MOST OF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THEN TRANSLATING
INTO NORTHEAST AND EASTERN WISCONSIN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BENDS
OVER TO THE EAST. THE NAM SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE AROUND 750 J/KG
OF ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 2KM FOR THE STORMS TO WORK WITH. THE 0-3KM
SHEAR SHOULD BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS BUT TAKING OUT THE LOWEST
1KM OF THIS SINCE THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED BRINGS THIS DOWN TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO ALLOW
THE STORMS THAT FORM TO PRODUCE ANY SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXPECTED TO BE 200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS.
THE 02.12Z HIRES ARW AND NMM ALONG WITH THE 02.16Z HRRR ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF INITIATING THE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVERRUNS THE WARM FRONT. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED THE IDEA
THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WEAK FORCING FROM THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT TAPERING BACK TO JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS
THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE A DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. DID NOT ADD ANY FROST TO THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A 5 TO 10 DEGREE SPREAD. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE SOME WINDS BOTH NIGHT TO CREATE SOME MIXING AND THE
COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST
FORMATION. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN NORTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR
COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES BOTH OF THESE NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
249 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MAINTAINING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFF FOR THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 02.12Z GFS...ECMWF AND GEM WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A LITTLE FASTER BUT ALL SHOW AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT
MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF DROPPING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS WHILE THE GFS IS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WILL HONOR THE ECMWF WITH A SMALL RAIN
CHANCE FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
643 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
CURRENTLY SCATTERED VFR DECK BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT DEVELOPING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND EXPECT
THIS TO BE IN VICINITY OF KRST/KLSE THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.
INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD LEAD TO AN EXPANSION OF CLOUD
COVER LATER TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. BEST FORCING/LIFT REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES...THUS KEPT VCSH MENTION STARTING 03.08Z AT KRST AND 03.10Z AT
KLSE. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH...TURNING WINDS TO
NORTHWEST. PLENTY OF MVFR STRATUS ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT
RIGHT NOW...EVEN SOME IFR ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO VFR / 4000 TO 5000 FT / BY LATE
AFTERNOON. INCLUDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS / 20 TO 25 KTS / AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH SUNSET.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
249 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ZT/BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
636 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
325 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON STRATUS TRENDS TODAY...AS WELL AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....BUILDING
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...AND TROUGHING
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITHIN THIS LATTER TROUGHING...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGING/HEIGHTS AT 500MB TAKING PLACE NEAR AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS AT
GRB AND MPX REFLECT THIS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS THAT ROSE TO 9C AT
15C RESPECTIVELY AT 00Z...COMPARED TO -2C AND 9C AT 12Z YESTERDAY.
THE WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT WAS A PROBLEM GETTING RID OF THE
STRATUS DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY...PLUS THE DEPTH OF THE STRATUS AT
12Z WAS 75MB...BOTH MAKING IT TOUGHER TO MIX OUT. DURING THE
EVENING...INCREASING 925MB WINDS OF 30-40KT HELPED TO BRING DRIER
AIR BELOW 900MB SEEN ON THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING NORTHWARD...WHICH HAS
CLEARED OUT THE LOW CLOUDS UP TO A FARIBAULT MN TO OSHKOSH WI
LINE. SEEING SOME FOG DEVELOP IN THE CLEARING AREA. ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...925MB WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST...IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ABOVE THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
NORTHERN ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. BACK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONVECTION
ROLLED EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND
SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH SITS NOW NEAR I-80.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING SEEN BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE AXIS RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AT 12Z. WITH THE UPPER FLOW GAINING A LITTLE MORE
AMPLITUDE...THAT COLD FRONT SEEN IN 925MB PROFILER/VWP DATA LOOKS TO
DROP SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z. THE
FRONT THEN STALLS OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH THE 925MB WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE STRATUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY
BACK SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. QUESTION
THEN BECOMES FOR THE AFTERNOON...DOES THE STRATUS MIX OUT? FOR
YESTERDAY...THE 31.00Z NAM AND 31.00-07Z RUC MODELS...AS WELL AS THE
HRRR...WERE ALL SAYING THE STRATUS WOULD MIX OUT BY 19Z. SEEING THE
SAME THING FROM THESE MODELS TODAY. ONE ADVANTAGE TO CLEARING IS
THAT DRIER AIR IS LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...NOTED BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z GRB SOUNDING. THIS DRIER
AIR LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO SINK TOWARDS THE SURFACE TODAY WHILE MIXING
OCCURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE
STRATUS. WITH THE STRATUS CONCERNS...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO THE NAM12 AND REGIONAL CANADIAN 2 METER OUTPUT...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. CERTAINLY IF CLOUDS STICK AROUND LONGER LIKE
YESTERDAY...THESE STILL MAY BE TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...DO NOT WANT TO
DROP TOO MUCH GIVEN ANY SUN AND 850MB TEMPS OF 12-16C COULD EASILY
JUMP TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. TONIGHT...THE LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD REDEVELOP OR EXPAND INTO A STRATUS DECK WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE 925MB WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THE INCREASING WINDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEBRASKA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN
MINNESOTA. SHOULD SEE A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL...WHICH SHOWS UP WELL ON 305K SURFACES IN THE 06-12Z MONDAY
TIME PERIOD FROM LA CROSSE SOUTHWESTWARD. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A CAPPING INVERSION AT 750MB TO PREVENT ACCAS THAT DEVELOPS
FROM THE LIFT INTO BECOMING DEEP CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
FORECAST...BUT MONITORING OF THIS CAP IS NEEDED. FURTHER NORTH...
MODELS WERE SUGGESTING BEFORE CONVECTION POSSIBLY INTO TAYLOR
COUNTY. THIS IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...UP
NEAR DULUTH. THEREFORE HAVE PULLED THE 20 PERCENT CHANCES.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY FALL APART...IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CURRENT WESTERN TROUGH CROSSING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF THE NORTHERN
FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM...WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN
CONSISTENTLY REMAINING SLOWER THAN THE NAM/GFS. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES AND ANY PRECIP TIMING. TRENDS IN THE
NAM/GFS SINCE THE 31.00Z RUNS HAVE SHOWN SOME SLOWING...THEREFORE
HAVE BIASED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN.
ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A DRIER FORECAST MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING...AS ALL SYNOPTIC FORCING IS EITHER ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR BACK IN THE FRONTOGENETIC AREA BEHIND THE
INVERTED TROUGH CROSSING MINNESOTA. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SOME FOR MONDAY AND LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ABLE TO
COMPLETELY DRY IT OUT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BEST
DPVA FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...WHEN YOU LOOK AT MODEL QPF FIELDS...MOST OF
THE QPF ENDS UP NORTH OF I-94. PLUS...500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE ONLY
10-20 METERS TOPS FROM I-90 SOUTH. THEREFORE...REDUCED MONDAY
NIGHTS CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-90 AND KEPT 50 CHANCES
GOING NORTH OF I-94. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A 5% CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS REALLY LOW
WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE FIRST PLACE SEEING MODEL TRENDS TOWARDS
DRIER OVERALL. INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COOLER...DRIER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD...AS WELL AS THE
TEMPERATURES. REGARDING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THESE
ARE TRICKY AS ALREADY MENTIONED TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS CRITICAL.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME STRATUS AND/OR ACCAS TO DEAL WITH MONDAY.
LASTLY...THE WIND FLOW MONDAY IS STILL EAST TO SOUTHEAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...850MB TEMPS ARE 12-16C. FOR NOW COOLED HIGHS ACROSS
WISCONSIN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND CLOSER TO EASTERLY FLOW. LOCATIONS
LIKE OELWEIN AND CHARLES CITY COULD HIT 80...THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
325 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
01.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER CANADA AND THE U.S. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST AREA LIES EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE OMEGA BLOCK...
WHICH IS IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
FAVORS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH A COOL/DRY AIR
FEED OUT OF CANADA. STILL...TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD END
UP A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FROST FOR A FEW
NIGHTS...THOUGH. SOME WARMING SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN AND THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST... ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. FOR THE WEEKEND...TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO OR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. ENVISION THE WEEKEND TIMING OF ALL THIS WILL GET
ADJUSTED OVER THE COMING DAYS...AND HAVE SOME CONCERN THE MAJORITY
OF MODELS INCLUDING THE 01.00Z ECMWF ARE TOO FAST WITH THIS TIMING
GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE HELD TO 20-30 AT
THIS TIME. DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER BECAUSE THERE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. EVEN BEHIND IT...READINGS COULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
635 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH MID MORNING. PLAN ON VISIBILITIES OF
1/2 MILE IN FOG AT KRST...WITH CEILINGS AT 200FT. LOOK FOR THESE
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY START TO IMPROVE AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 16Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KLSE WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY 14Z.
STRATUS WILL PRODUCE CLOUD BASES IN THE 3 TO 4 KFT RANGE THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 8 TO 16 KT RANGE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH ON LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL TONIGHT...WITH WINDS
AROUND 1500 FT INCREASING TO 45 KTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MVFR STRATUS DECK TO
DEVELOP AT KLSE AND KRST AS SOUTHEAST WINDS ADVECT 925 MB MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL VERY
CLOSELY TODAY. IF THE STRATUS DEVELOPS...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 1500 FT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
325 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
325 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON STRATUS TRENDS TODAY...AS WELL AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....BUILDING
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...AND TROUGHING
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITHIN THIS LATTER TROUGHING...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGING/HEIGHTS AT 500MB TAKING PLACE NEAR AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS AT
GRB AND MPX REFLECT THIS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS THAT ROSE TO 9C AT
15C RESPECTIVELY AT 00Z...COMPARED TO -2C AND 9C AT 12Z YESTERDAY.
THE WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT WAS A PROBLEM GETTING RID OF THE
STRATUS DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY...PLUS THE DEPTH OF THE STRATUS AT
12Z WAS 75MB...BOTH MAKING IT TOUGHER TO MIX OUT. DURING THE
EVENING...INCREASING 925MB WINDS OF 30-40KT HELPED TO BRING DRIER
AIR BELOW 900MB SEEN ON THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING NORTHWARD...WHICH HAS
CLEARED OUT THE LOW CLOUDS UP TO A FARIBAULT MN TO OSHKOSH WI
LINE. SEEING SOME FOG DEVELOP IN THE CLEARING AREA. ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...925MB WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST...IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ABOVE THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
NORTHERN ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. BACK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONVECTION
ROLLED EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND
SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH SITS NOW NEAR I-80.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING SEEN BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE AXIS RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AT 12Z. WITH THE UPPER FLOW GAINING A LITTLE MORE
AMPLITUDE...THAT COLD FRONT SEEN IN 925MB PROFILER/VWP DATA LOOKS TO
DROP SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z. THE
FRONT THEN STALLS OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH THE 925MB WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE STRATUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY
BACK SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. QUESTION
THEN BECOMES FOR THE AFTERNOON...DOES THE STRATUS MIX OUT? FOR
YESTERDAY...THE 31.00Z NAM AND 31.00-07Z RUC MODELS...AS WELL AS THE
HRRR...WERE ALL SAYING THE STRATUS WOULD MIX OUT BY 19Z. SEEING THE
SAME THING FROM THESE MODELS TODAY. ONE ADVANTAGE TO CLEARING IS
THAT DRIER AIR IS LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...NOTED BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z GRB SOUNDING. THIS DRIER
AIR LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO SINK TOWARDS THE SURFACE TODAY WHILE MIXING
OCCURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE
STRATUS. WITH THE STRATUS CONCERNS...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO THE NAM12 AND REGIONAL CANADIAN 2 METER OUTPUT...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. CERTAINLY IF CLOUDS STICK AROUND LONGER LIKE
YESTERDAY...THESE STILL MAY BE TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...DO NOT WANT TO
DROP TOO MUCH GIVEN ANY SUN AND 850MB TEMPS OF 12-16C COULD EASILY
JUMP TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. TONIGHT...THE LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD REDEVELOP OR EXPAND INTO A STRATUS DECK WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE 925MB WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THE INCREASING WINDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
NEBRASKA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN
MINNESOTA. SHOULD SEE A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL...WHICH SHOWS UP WELL ON 305K SURFACES IN THE 06-12Z MONDAY
TIME PERIOD FROM LA CROSSE SOUTHWESTWARD. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A CAPPING INVERSION AT 750MB TO PREVENT ACCAS THAT DEVELOPS
FROM THE LIFT INTO BECOMING DEEP CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
FORECAST...BUT MONITORING OF THIS CAP IS NEEDED. FURTHER NORTH...
MODELS WERE SUGGESTING BEFORE CONVECTION POSSIBLY INTO TAYLOR
COUNTY. THIS IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...UP
NEAR DULUTH. THEREFORE HAVE PULLED THE 20 PERCENT CHANCES.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY FALL APART...IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CURRENT WESTERN TROUGH CROSSING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF THE NORTHERN
FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM...WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN
CONSISTENTLY REMAINING SLOWER THAN THE NAM/GFS. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES AND ANY PRECIP TIMING. TRENDS IN THE
NAM/GFS SINCE THE 31.00Z RUNS HAVE SHOWN SOME SLOWING...THEREFORE
HAVE BIASED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN.
ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A DRIER FORECAST MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING...AS ALL SYNOPTIC FORCING IS EITHER ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR BACK IN THE FRONTOGENETIC AREA BEHIND THE
INVERTED TROUGH CROSSING MINNESOTA. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SOME FOR MONDAY AND LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ABLE TO
COMPLETELY DRY IT OUT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BEST
DPVA FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...WHEN YOU LOOK AT MODEL QPF FIELDS...MOST OF
THE QPF ENDS UP NORTH OF I-94. PLUS...500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE ONLY
10-20 METERS TOPS FROM I-90 SOUTH. THEREFORE...REDUCED MONDAY
NIGHTS CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-90 AND KEPT 50 CHANCES
GOING NORTH OF I-94. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A 5% CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS REALLY LOW
WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE FIRST PLACE SEEING MODEL TRENDS TOWARDS
DRIER OVERALL. INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COOLER...DRIER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD...AS WELL AS THE
TEMPERATURES. REGARDING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THESE
ARE TRICKY AS ALREADY MENTIONED TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS CRITICAL.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME STRATUS AND/OR ACCAS TO DEAL WITH MONDAY.
LASTLY...THE WIND FLOW MONDAY IS STILL EAST TO SOUTHEAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...850MB TEMPS ARE 12-16C. FOR NOW COOLED HIGHS ACROSS
WISCONSIN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND CLOSER TO EASTERLY FLOW. LOCATIONS
LIKE OELWEIN AND CHARLES CITY COULD HIT 80...THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
325 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
01.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER CANADA AND THE U.S. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST AREA LIES EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE OMEGA BLOCK...
WHICH IS IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
FAVORS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH A COOL/DRY AIR
FEED OUT OF CANADA. STILL...TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD END
UP A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FROST FOR A FEW
NIGHTS...THOUGH. SOME WARMING SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN AND THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST... ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. FOR THE WEEKEND...TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO OR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. ENVISION THE WEEKEND TIMING OF ALL THIS WILL GET
ADJUSTED OVER THE COMING DAYS...AND HAVE SOME CONCERN THE MAJORITY
OF MODELS INCLUDING THE 01.00Z ECMWF ARE TOO FAST WITH THIS TIMING
GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE HELD TO 20-30 AT
THIS TIME. DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER BECAUSE THERE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. EVEN BEHIND IT...READINGS COULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
1150 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012
CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. 925MB
WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHICH
HAS PUSHED THE LOW STRATUS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. 01.00Z HRRR
DOES SHOW THIS NORTHWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BEFORE
EXPANDING IT BACK SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 11Z-14Z. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
IS WILL THEY MAKE IT BACK IN TO KLSE AND KRST. BOTH THE 01.00Z RUC
AND NAM SHOWS THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY 12Z
WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE CLOUDS MOVING BACK SOUTHWARD OR
RE-DEVELOPING. FOR THE 06Z TAFS...DID BRING THE STRATUS BACK IN AT
BOTH SITES BETWEEN 13Z-19Z...ALONG WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
COULD BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT KRST. STILL EXPECT
THESE TO SCATTERED OUT MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS
THEN WILL PERSIST THROUGH 06Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
325 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
245 AM MDT TUE APR 3 2012
.UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...HAVE PUT OUT A SHORT FUSE HIGH WIND WARNING DUE TO
PERSISTENT GUSTS OVER 60 MPH HERE AT KPUB AND AT A FEW SPOTS IN
EL PASO AS WELL. WIDESPREAD WINDS OVER 50 MPH STILL BEING
OBSERVED. ONGOING PRECIP IS BRINGING SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO
THE GROUND...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY QUIET DOWN. WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
LOOK ON TRACK FOR MOST PART. NAM IS SHOWING EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOW
OVER THE SRN MTS AND ESPECIALLY SPANISH PEAKS REGION. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SPOTS LIKE CUCHARA GET WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET
FROM THIS STORM. ROSE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012/
AVIATION...
IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES FROM TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 07Z/3RD AS INTENSE STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS
IN THE 25 TO 45 KT RANGE SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB
TAFS SITES TONIGHT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW FOR KCOS
AND KPUB SHOULD BE NOTED FROM 07Z-15Z AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN FROM
21Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY. KALS...KCOS AND KPUB COULD ALL
EXPERIENCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
WILL ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE AS ONLY AREA EXCEEDING 50
KNOT GUSTS THE PAST 2 HOURS HAS BEEN HERE AT KPUB...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME 40-45 KNOT
GUSTS OVER EASTERN EL PASO AND NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTIES STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH 05Z...AND PERHAPS SOME BRIEF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
WINDS TO AROUND 45 KNOTS ACROSS PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES FROM
TSRA IN KS.
PRECIP A LITTLE SLOW TO GET GOING THIS EVENING WITH DRY SURFACE
LAYER OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND DEEPEST LIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWNWARD MANY AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH THIS
UPDATE..ESPECIALLY KPUB/KCOS. 00Z NAM RAMPS UP PRECIP AFTER 06Z AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES WESTWARD...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING WELL INTO TUES NIGHT. NAM
00Z QPF INDICATES LIQUID AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES/WETS AND I-25 CORRIDOR FROM
PUEBLO SOUTHWARD...WHICH SUGGESTS FORECASTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOK ON TRACK. KCOS/KPUB/CANON CITY PRECIP
AMOUNTS STILL TRICKY WITH USUAL PRECIP MINIMUM NEARBY...THOUGH
STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES. OVERALL TREND OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. --10
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
STRONG SPRING STORM TAKING AIM ON SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...
MODELS IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL DETAILS OF CLOSED
UPPER LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SHIFTING EASTWARD THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE BY TUES AFTERNOON. FRONT HAS
ALREADY SLAMMED THROUGH EASTERN CO EARLIER TODAY...WITH PEAK GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY. HRRR AND
LOCAL 4 KM WRF INDICATED TWO PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS...ONE THIS
MORNING...AND ANOTHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. JUST
PICKED UP A GUST TO 50 KTS AT KPUB AIRPORT AROUND 230 PM...SO
PERHAPS THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND WARNINGS THROUGH 03Z.
INTERESTINGLY...HRRR SUGGESTS CORE OF STRONGER WINDS MAY EXPAND
ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z...HOWEVER WITH TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY PAST...WILL
LEAVE CURRENT EXPIRATION AT 03Z AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THE
TRENDS TO DECIDE IF EXTENSION IN TIME...OR EXPANSION IN AREA IS
NECESSARY. LOCAL 4 KM WRF BACKED OFF SOME ON WIND GUSTS AFTER 03Z
FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN
FOR HIGH WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AS WINDS ACCELERATE THROUGH THE PASSES IN THE SANGRES AND
SPILLS INTO THE VALLEY. HRRR AND 12Z 4KM WRF STILL PAINT THIS
SCENARIO IN THE LATEST RUNS...WITH PEAK WINDS OCCURRING NOW THROUGH
00Z...WITH GUSTS STARTING TO TAIL OFF BY 03Z. ALS HAD A WIND GUST
TO 54 MPH AFTER NOON...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE. SUSPECT LOCAL AREAS TO
THE WEST HAD HIGHER GUSTS. AGAIN...WRF KEEPS GUSTS UP AROUND 70 MPH
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE TAILING OFF...SO CURRENT HIGHLIGHT LOOKS ON
TARGET.
FIRST LOBE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED LOW INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING. SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SANGRES/WETS...THOUGH ITS BEEN PRETTY
LIGHT SO FAR AS MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW. HOWEVER...RADARS TO
THE SOUTH SHOW ECHOES EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WITH SOME
EMBEDDED CONVECTION EVIDENT VIA LIGHTNING STRIKES. SHOULD SEE THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SNOW
SPREADING NORTHWARD AND RAMPING UP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AREA AFTER
03-06Z. NICE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EVIDENT IN BOTH NAM AND GFS ON THE
300K SFC...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEAVY QPF AMOUNTS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF
AROUND 7000 FEET...BUT DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT. TIMING
OF THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND THE RESIDUAL WARMTH OF THE GROUND
WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR SUCH AS SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AND IMPRESSIVE TROWAL
ALOFT EXPECTED TO OVERWHELM DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PALMER AT LEAST
THROUGH THE 06Z TO 15Z WINDOW...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING
COLORADO SPRINGS AND PUEBLO. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT A
WIDE RANGE WITH SOME MELTING OFF ROAD SURFACES AT TIMES...BUT
ANYWHERE FROM 2 INCHES ON THE GRASS...TO AROUND 6 INCHES NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. WITH A PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
FUNNELING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND UPSLOPING ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LA GARITAS/AND EASTERN SAN JUANS...WILL INCLUDE THESE AREAS
IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND RUN IT THROUGH 00Z. BIGGEST WINNER
IN THIS EVENT WILL BE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND WETS 40 TO
50 KTS OF NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FEET OF
SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ( UP TO 30 INCHES) ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE. TROWAL
EVENTUALLY PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW WINDING
DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. -KT
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)
TIMING AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL STORM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE
SE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE SE PLAINS CONTINUE AND
HAVE TAILORED FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM AND EC WHICH HAVE THE LOW
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AT 00Z WED AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT
IT OUT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. ONGOING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN
MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AND
DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A
COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MTS AND ALONG WITH PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA TUESDAY EVENING
WITH THINGS WINDING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...THOUGH HAVE TAPERED BACK HIGHS A
TAD IN EXPECTED SNOW COVERED AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE
PROGGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. ONE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIP
FALLS. PASSING WAVE SENDS A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE POSSIBLE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BRINGING IN ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. -MW
AVIATION...
IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AS STRONG
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE
30 TO 45 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE AT KCOS AND KPUB BEFORE DECREASING
TOWARDS 06Z. KALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40
KT RANGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF BLDU. HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL IMPACT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 06Z-18Z PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES AT KPUB...TO
AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES AT KCOS. WITH WARM GROUND...THERE WILL BE SOME
MELTING AT TIMES AT KCOS...BUT PAVED SURFACES COULD BECOME SLUSHY
AND SNOWPACKED UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. KALS COULD SEE AN INCH
OR TWO AS WELL. RAIN/SNOW SWITCH OVER WILL OCCUR AROUND 03Z FOR
KCOS AND KALS...AND AROUND 06Z FOR KPUB. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>075-
078>082-084-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060>063-066>068-076-077.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ084>086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ083-085-086.
&&
$$
44/50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES FROM TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 07Z/3RD AS INTENSE STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS
IN THE 25 TO 45 KT RANGE SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB
TAFS SITES TONIGHT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW FOR KCOS
AND KPUB SHOULD BE NOTED FROM 07Z-15Z AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN FROM
21Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY. KALS...KCOS AND KPUB COULD ALL
EXPERIENCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
WILL ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE AS ONLY AREA EXCEEDING 50
KNOT GUSTS THE PAST 2 HOURS HAS BEEN HERE AT KPUB...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME 40-45 KNOT
GUSTS OVER EASTERN EL PASO AND NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTIES STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH 05Z...AND PERHAPS SOME BRIEF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
WINDS TO AROUND 45 KNOTS ACROSS PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES FROM
TSRA IN KS.
PRECIP A LITTLE SLOW TO GET GOING THIS EVENING WITH DRY SURFACE
LAYER OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND DEEPEST LIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWNWARD MANY AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH THIS
UPDATE..ESPECIALLY KPUB/KCOS. 00Z NAM RAMPS UP PRECIP AFTER 06Z AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES WESTWARD...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING WELL INTO TUES NIGHT. NAM
00Z QPF INDICATES LIQUID AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES/WETS AND I-25 CORRIDOR FROM
PUEBLO SOUTHWARD...WHICH SUGGESTS FORECASTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOK ON TRACK. KCOS/KPUB/CANON CITY PRECIP
AMOUNTS STILL TRICKY WITH USUAL PRECIP MINIMUM NEARBY...THOUGH
STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES. OVERALL TREND OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. --10
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
.STRONG SPRING STORM TAKING AIM ON SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...
MODELS IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL DETAILS OF CLOSED
UPPER LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SHIFTING EASTWARD THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE BY TUES AFTERNOON. FRONT HAS
ALREADY SLAMMED THROUGH EASTERN CO EARLIER TODAY...WITH PEAK GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY. HRRR AND
LOCAL 4 KM WRF INDICATED TWO PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS...ONE THIS
MORNING...AND ANOTHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. JUST
PICKED UP A GUST TO 50 KTS AT KPUB AIRPORT AROUND 230 PM...SO
PERHAPS THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND WARNINGS THROUGH 03Z.
INTERESTINGLY...HRRR SUGGESTS CORE OF STRONGER WINDS MAY EXPAND
ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z...HOWEVER WITH TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY PAST...WILL
LEAVE CURRENT EXPIRATION AT 03Z AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THE
TRENDS TO DECIDE IF EXTENSION IN TIME...OR EXPANSION IN AREA IS
NECESSARY. LOCAL 4 KM WRF BACKED OFF SOME ON WIND GUSTS AFTER 03Z
FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN
FOR HIGH WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AS WINDS ACCELERATE THROUGH THE PASSES IN THE SANGRES AND
SPILLS INTO THE VALLEY. HRRR AND 12Z 4KM WRF STILL PAINT THIS
SCENARIO IN THE LATEST RUNS...WITH PEAK WINDS OCCURRING NOW THROUGH
00Z...WITH GUSTS STARTING TO TAIL OFF BY 03Z. ALS HAD A WIND GUST
TO 54 MPH AFTER NOON...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE. SUSPECT LOCAL AREAS TO
THE WEST HAD HIGHER GUSTS. AGAIN...WRF KEEPS GUSTS UP AROUND 70 MPH
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE TAILING OFF...SO CURRENT HIGHLIGHT LOOKS ON
TARGET.
FIRST LOBE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED LOW INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING. SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SANGRES/WETS...THOUGH ITS BEEN PRETTY
LIGHT SO FAR AS MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW. HOWEVER...RADARS TO
THE SOUTH SHOW ECHOES EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WITH SOME
EMBEDDED CONVECTION EVIDENT VIA LIGHTNING STRIKES. SHOULD SEE THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SNOW
SPREADING NORTHWARD AND RAMPING UP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AREA AFTER
03-06Z. NICE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EVIDENT IN BOTH NAM AND GFS ON THE
300K SFC...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEAVY QPF AMOUNTS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF
AROUND 7000 FEET...BUT DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT. TIMING
OF THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND THE RESIDUAL WARMTH OF THE GROUND
WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR SUCH AS SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AND IMPRESSIVE TROWAL
ALOFT EXPECTED TO OVERWHELM DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PALMER AT LEAST
THROUGH THE 06Z TO 15Z WINDOW...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING
COLORADO SPRINGS AND PUEBLO. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT A
WIDE RANGE WITH SOME MELTING OFF ROAD SURFACES AT TIMES...BUT
ANYWHERE FROM 2 INCHES ON THE GRASS...TO AROUND 6 INCHES NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. WITH A PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
FUNNELING UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND UPSLOPING ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE LA GARITAS/AND EASTERN SAN JUANS...WILL INCLUDE THESE AREAS
IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND RUN IT THROUGH 00Z. BIGGEST WINNER
IN THIS EVENT WILL BE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND WETS 40 TO
50 KTS OF NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FEET OF
SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ( UP TO 30 INCHES) ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE. TROWAL
EVENTUALLY PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW WINDING
DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. -KT
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)
.TIMING AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL STORM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE
SE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE SE PLAINS CONTINUE AND
HAVE TAILORED FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM AND EC WHICH HAVE THE LOW
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AT 00Z WED AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT
IT OUT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. ONGOING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN
MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AND
DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A
COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MTS AND ALONG WITH PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA TUESDAY EVENING
WITH THINGS WINDING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...THOUGH HAVE TAPERED BACK HIGHS A
TAD IN EXPECTED SNOW COVERED AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE
PROGGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. ONE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIP
FALLS. PASSING WAVE SENDS A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE POSSIBLE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BRINGING IN ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. -MW
AVIATION...
IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AS STRONG
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE
30 TO 45 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE AT KCOS AND KPUB BEFORE DECREASING
TOWARDS 06Z. KALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40
KT RANGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF BLDU. HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL IMPACT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 06Z-18Z PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES AT KPUB...TO
AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES AT KCOS. WITH WARM GROUND...THERE WILL BE SOME
MELTING AT TIMES AT KCOS...BUT PAVED SURFACES COULD BECOME SLUSHY
AND SNOWPACKED UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. KALS COULD SEE AN INCH
OR TWO AS WELL. RAIN/SNOW SWITCH OVER WILL OCCUR AROUND 03Z FOR
KCOS AND KALS...AND AROUND 06Z FOR KPUB. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ072>075-
078>082-084-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ058-
060>063-066>068-076-077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ083-085-
086.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
119 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT MON APR 2 2012/
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
STLT/OBS SHOWING LOW/MID CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE WRN GRTLKS
REGION IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PER LOCAL
PROFILERS/WVP. MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP IN THIS AREA 09-12Z AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 15Z.
COVERAGE AND EXACT LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN SO ONLY CARRIED VCTS
IN TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. REMAINDER OF THE DAY
SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SCT CU. SLIGHT CHC OF TS
DVLPG ALONG A CDFNT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVE
BUT WITH CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE AND WK FORCING TS CHANCES AT
TERMINALS TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. CDFNT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
SBN AROUND 21Z AND FWA BY 00Z SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO NORTH
FOLLOWED BY PERIOD OF LOW VFR STRATO CU CIGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
CHANCES OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERNS.
FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASING IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH MID
LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO. SOME LOWER BASED CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG A LINE FROM NORTHWEST ILLINOIS INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WHICH SEEM TO CORRELATE WELL WITH RUC 900/850 HPA LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING WITH INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATER THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOT DEPICTING ANY
IMMEDIATE SHORT WAVES OF CONSEQUENCE FOR THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT BUT
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO FAR NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PERHAPS A BIT MORE DELAYED IN THE
LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. SEE LITTLE TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT AT THIS POINT WITH MID CHANCE POPS NORTH AND LOW CHANCE
POPS SOUTH...WITH THE HIGHER TSRA POPS LINING UP BETTER WITH 850 HPA
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA AFTER 06Z AS STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION SPREADS FROM
WEST TO EAST.
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT DOES POSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. TAKING A
900 HPA BASED PARCEL FROM 12Z NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS YIELDS BETWEEN
1000-1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AFTER 06Z. 12Z GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS
REMAIN A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND MID
LEVEL WARM LAYER THAT WOULD RESULT IN LESSER INSTABILITY THAN
INDICATED BY THE NAM. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR THESE ELEVATED PARCELS
SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/SEVERE THREAT. PREVIOUS
FORECAST IDEA OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT STILL SEEMS IN
ORDER...BUT SHIFTED A BIT LATER AFTER 06Z BASED ON TREND OF SLIGHTLY
SLOWER MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE AREA.
LINGERING ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. A CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED VORT MAX ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO MID MS RVR VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW FOR LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CAPPING
CONCERNS. THUS...HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON TSRA POPS AND MAINTAINED
HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE FORCING FROM THIS VORT MAX WILL
LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
TO BE FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS ANOTHER SOUTHERN CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE PROVIDES IMPETUS FOR SFC LOW/FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO TO STRENGTHEN AS
STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO CONTINUED MARGINAL TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILES. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT MOST
IF NOT ALL OF FORECAST AREA WILL GET INTO WARM SECTOR AGAIN BEFORE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RECORD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR FORT WAYNE AND SOUTH BEND COULD ONCE
AGAIN BE AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN.
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM PERIOD IS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND FROST
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE REGION BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER PANHANDLE REGION WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT PATCHY FROST MENTION IN
THE NE PORTION OF THE FA...BUT INCREASED GRADIENT OF LOW TEMPS FROM
NE TO SW AS CUTOFF LOW AND AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY PASS JUST SOUTH
OF THE FA.
CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. 12Z GFS INDICATED PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR SW
PORTIONS OF THE FA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS 12Z GFS RUN OPENS LOW INTO POSITIVELY
TILTED WAVE QUICKER AND DIVES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THAN PREVIOUS
RUN...MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z ECMWF. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OVERHEAD. KEPT THE AREAS OF FROST MENTION IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREAS
AS PREVIOUS FCST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PD OVER THE NEXT FEW
FORECASTS WITH POSSIBLE NEED FOR HEADLINES...WITH LOWS NEARING 32-33
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA.
SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS GREAT LAKES AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE COOLER WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AND SLOWLY MODERATING AIRMASS. KEPT PATCHY FROST
MENTION IN FCST FRI NIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF FA AND
LIGHTER WINDS. SATURDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARM WITH UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA AND SFC HIGH EAST...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WAA. RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST/ALLBLEND.
NEXT PRECIP CHANCES RETURN SAT NIGHT/SUN AS DEEPENING SFC
LOW/EJECTING WRN CONUS TROF ENERGY ACROSS NRN TIER BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT POPS CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE AS BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
140 AM MDT TUE APR 3 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 139 AM MDT TUE APR 3 2012
JUST COMPLETED A QUICK UPDATE. GETTING REPORTS OF SNOW...UP TO AN
INCH...A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAT WAS CURRENTLY CALLED FOR THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS EARLY MORNING. SO JUST EXPANDED THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
AT 0330Z RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 40 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT ALLOWED WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 45 MPH ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 20 HOUR OR SO IS PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGHEST POPS/QPF AND SNOW.
GENERALLY THINKING IS FOR CURRENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTH BRINGING AN END TO THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION (EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE AREA) BY SUNRISE.
FLAGLER CURRENT TEMP IS 37...NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT RUC LOWER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 30S BY SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SNOW VS ANY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. HOW FAR EAST THESE COLDER
TEMPERATURES GET IS THE BIG QUESTION AS THE NAM PUSHES THEM AS FAR
EAST AS THE CO/KS BORDER WHILE THE HRRR IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST
AND THE SREF FURTHER WEST TOWARD SEIBERT. RIGHT NOW ONLY HAVE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES CONFINED TO THE FLAGLER AREA AND
MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR JUST HOW FAR EAST THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES GET. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED HWO TO MENTION
THE ACCUMULATION POSSIBILITIES.
FOR TUESDAY LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS WE WILL
BE UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. 00Z NAM/21Z SREF/00Z MET AND 18Z
MAV 3 HOUR TEMPERATURES ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO
THE MID 40S AND LOW 50S EAST OF THE BORDER.
SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA
TO COLBY AND GOVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20-25 MPH. THIS WILL PUT THEM
INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA BY 01Z IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
CANT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SO UPDATED TO INCLUDE SOME
THUNDER MENTION.
OTHER CHANGES WERE TO BEEF UP THE CLOUDINESS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHER CHANGES TO BE MADE LATER AS 00Z MODEL DATA COMES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
PLAN TO LET THE WIND ADVISORY GO TO EXPIRATION AT 03Z. THIS SHOULD
WORK OUT WELL SINCE HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DECREASE. THE NAM MIXED
LAYER WINDS INDICATE THAT THEY FALL AT OR JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AT 03Z. THE GFS MIXED LAYER WIND KEEPS IT WINDY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS PROBABLY AN OUTLIER SINCE THE
TREND FOR WINDS IN THAT PART OF THE AREA IS SIMILAR TO THE REST OF
THE FA. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE
ADVISORY SHOULD BE EXTENDED IN TIME.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SINCE THE MODELS
DO NOT HAVE THE LOW AS FAR SOUTH AS ITS ACTUAL POSITION ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. NEVERTHELESS HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW HAS MORE TIME TO MOVE NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE IN EASTERN COLORADO FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. THE
NAM SHOWS A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
FOR TUESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FA SO WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GET DOWN TO 32 IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FROM
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER 40S IN MCK AND HLC. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CLOSED LOW AND PRECIP. CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. NOTICED THE 0Z ECMWF AND
LATEST NAM/SREF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...AM CONCERNED THE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE
CLOSED LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BASED MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WITH THE CLOSED LOW BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE
MODELS HAVE...AM THINKING IT WILL LIFT FURTHER EAST THAN WHAT THE
NAM/SREF/ECMWF HAVE. AS SUCH WILL TRENDED HIGHER POPS FURTHER EAST
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BASED ON ABOVE CONCERNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE LEFT EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS THE
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES. OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DEEP
LIFTING SETS UP AND A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS. AS THE CLOSED
LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THE LIFT FOLLOWS. TRENDED POPS IN
THE SAME DIRECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST CERTAINTY WILL
BE WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE WEST WHERE THE I AM MORE UNCERTAIN
THAT THE LIFT WILL DEVELOP BE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. AREAS OF
EASTERN COLORADO MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DIP TO THE FREEZING POINT. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER SREF PRECIP. TYPE FIELDS ONLY SHOW A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
WILL JUST MENTION THE RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY ISENTROPIC LIFT DWINDLES TOWARD THE WEST AS THE CLOSED LOW
DEPARTS. HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE THE FORCING
FOR LIFT IS BEST WITH CHANCES DECLINING TO THE WEST. THROUGH THE
DAY PRECIP. CHANCES DECLINE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH THE PRECIP. CHANCES COMING TO AN END
OVER THE FAR EAST BY EARLY EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS...A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
RUC IS HANDLING THE CLOUDS FAIRLY WELL SO HAVE USED THIS MODEL AS
WELL AS THE HRRR CONCERNING THE PRECIPITATION. MVFR CIGS AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z-11Z BEFORE ROTATING OUT OF THE AREA AS MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES IN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS TIL 16Z OR SO WHEN ANOTHER BATCH
OF PRECIP MOVES NORTH IMPACTING KGLD AROUND 16Z AND KMCK AROUND
00Z. THIS BATCH OF PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM....JTL
AVIATION...BAS/DDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1040 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
AT 0330Z RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 40 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT ALLOWED WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 45 MPH ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 20 HOUR OR SO IS PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGHEST POPS/QPF AND SNOW.
GENERALLY THINKING IS FOR CURRENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTH BRINGING AN END TO THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION (EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE AREA) BY SUNRISE.
FLAGLER CURRENT TEMP IS 37...NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT RUC LOWER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 30S BY SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SNOW VS ANY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. HOW FAR EAST THESE COLDER
TEMPERATURES GET IS THE BIG QUESTION AS THE NAM PUSHES THEM AS FAR
EAST AS THE CO/KS BORDER WHILE THE HRRR IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST
AND THE SREF FURTHER WEST TOWARD SEIBERT. RIGHT NOW ONLY HAVE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES CONFINED TO THE FLAGLER AREA AND
MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR JUST HOW FAR EAST THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES GET. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED HWO TO MENTION
THE ACCUMULATION POSSIBILITIES.
FOR TUESDAY LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS WE WILL
BE UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. 00Z NAM/21Z SREF/00Z MET AND 18Z
MAV 3 HOUR TEMPERATURES ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO
THE MID 40S AND LOW 50S EAST OF THE BORDER.
SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA
TO COLBY AND GOVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20-25 MPH. THIS WILL PUT THEM
INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA BY 01Z IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
CANT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SO UPDATED TO INCLUDE SOME
THUNDER MENTION.
OTHER CHANGES WERE TO BEEF UP THE CLOUDINESS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHER CHANGES TO BE MADE LATER AS 00Z MODEL DATA COMES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
PLAN TO LET THE WIND ADVISORY GO TO EXPIRATION AT 03Z. THIS SHOULD
WORK OUT WELL SINCE HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DECREASE. THE NAM MIXED
LAYER WINDS INDICATE THAT THEY FALL AT OR JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AT 03Z. THE GFS MIXED LAYER WIND KEEPS IT WINDY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS PROBABLY AN OUTLIER SINCE THE
TREND FOR WINDS IN THAT PART OF THE AREA IS SIMILAR TO THE REST OF
THE FA. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE
ADVISORY SHOULD BE EXTENDED IN TIME.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SINCE THE MODELS
DO NOT HAVE THE LOW AS FAR SOUTH AS ITS ACTUAL POSITION ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. NEVERTHELESS HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW HAS MORE TIME TO MOVE NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE IN EASTERN COLORADO FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. THE
NAM SHOWS A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
FOR TUESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FA SO WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GET DOWN TO 32 IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FROM
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE LOWER 40S IN MCK AND HLC. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
THE MID 50S IN THE EASTERN FA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CLOSED LOW AND PRECIP. CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. NOTICED THE 0Z ECMWF AND
LATEST NAM/SREF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...AM CONCERNED THE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE
CLOSED LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BASED MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WITH THE CLOSED LOW BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE
MODELS HAVE...AM THINKING IT WILL LIFT FURTHER EAST THAN WHAT THE
NAM/SREF/ECMWF HAVE. AS SUCH WILL TRENDED HIGHER POPS FURTHER EAST
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BASED ON ABOVE CONCERNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE LEFT EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS THE
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES. OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DEEP
LIFTING SETS UP AND A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS. AS THE CLOSED
LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THE LIFT FOLLOWS. TRENDED POPS IN
THE SAME DIRECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST CERTAINTY WILL
BE WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE WEST WHERE THE I AM MORE UNCERTAIN
THAT THE LIFT WILL DEVELOP BE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. AREAS OF
EASTERN COLORADO MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DIP TO THE FREEZING POINT. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER SREF PRECIP. TYPE FIELDS ONLY SHOW A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
WILL JUST MENTION THE RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY ISENTROPIC LIFT DWINDLES TOWARD THE WEST AS THE CLOSED LOW
DEPARTS. HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE THE FORCING
FOR LIFT IS BEST WITH CHANCES DECLINING TO THE WEST. THROUGH THE
DAY PRECIP. CHANCES DECLINE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH THE PRECIP. CHANCES COMING TO AN END
OVER THE FAR EAST BY EARLY EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS...A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
RUC IS HANDLING THE CLOUDS FAIRLY WELL SO HAVE USED THIS MODEL AS
WELL AS THE HRRR CONCERNING THE PRECIPITATION. MVFR CIGS AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z-11Z BEFORE ROTATING OUT OF THE AREA AS MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES IN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS TIL 16Z OR SO WHEN ANOTHER BATCH
OF PRECIP MOVES NORTH IMPACTING KGLD AROUND 16Z AND KMCK AROUND
00Z. THIS BATCH OF PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM....JTL
AVIATION...BAS/DDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.AVIATION...
...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z. EXPECT CONVECTION TO IMPACT
KHUM...KMSY...KNEW...KASD...KHSA...AND KGPT THROUGH 09-10Z THIS
MORNING. THIS CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. AFTER 10Z...AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DRIVING THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL PASS BY THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...CUTTING OFF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS DEVELOP AROUND
12Z...WITH AREAS SEEING IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS TAKE HOLD...AS WELL
AS SOME IFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY 15Z...AND WILL BE
ABOVE 12 KNOTS FROM 15Z TO AROUND 03Z TOMORROW NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
BREAK OUT...AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING FOR
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. 32
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...CONVECTION IS BEING RATHER STUBBORN. OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY
CONTINUES TO WORK EAST ACROSS COASTAL MS BUT HAS BASICALLY STALLED
OVER COASTAL LA. IN FACT WHERE THE BNDRY IS ANCHORED(OVER
TERREBONNE...ST MARY...ASSUMPTION...AND ST MARTING PARISHES) IT IS
INTERACTING WITH A COOL POCKET NOTED BY THE RUC. THE RUC IS THE
ONLY MODEL EVEN NOTICING IT RIGHT NOW AS ALL OF THE OTHER HIRES SHORT
RANGE MDLS(12-36 HRS) ARENT EVEN HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION.
THE RUC IS SHOWING THIS COOL POCKET MOVING TO THE NORTH AND
BECOMING ELONGATED FROM NNW-SSE OVER THE WRN QUARTER OF OUR CWA.
WITH THAT I HAVE INCREASED POPS GREATLY FOR OUR SW AND WEST FOR
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE OVER ASSUMPTION...NRN
TERREBONNE...NWRN LAFOURCHE...ST JAMES...AND MAYBE INTO IBERVILLE
AND ASCENSION PARISHES OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE NO METRO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. GRIDS
AND ZONES ARE OUT. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 85 67 83 / 20 40 40 50
BTR 68 85 71 83 / 40 40 40 50
ASD 67 85 69 82 / 20 30 40 50
MSY 71 85 72 82 / 30 30 40 50
GPT 70 81 72 80 / 20 30 40 40
PQL 67 82 71 80 / 20 30 20 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
534 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
RIDGE OVER THE AREA SINCE LATE IN THE WEEKEND IS BEING FLATTENED
OUT THIS MORNING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES FM MANITOBA INTO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUBTLE OVR UPR LAKES PER 00Z
RAOBS BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA OVR THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDING SOUTH OUT OF LOW OVR
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND ALSO EXTENDING TO THE NORTH FM LOW OVR MID
MISSISSIPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CROSS UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. COOLER
AIRMASS ADVECTS OVR THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE FROPA THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
TODAY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CHALLENGING THIS MORNING...BUT
AFTER THAT DRYING TREND WILL FIRMLY TAKE HOLD. AS OCCURRED 24 HR
AGO...MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO H7
MOIST AXIS AND ALSO IN AREA OF H85 TEMP ADVECTION. INITIAL SHRA/TSRA
HEADING QUICKLY INTO THE FAR EAST CWA FORMED AHEAD OF ONTARIO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND HAVE BEHAVED FOLLOWING STEADY EASTWARD MOTION.
CONVECTION OVR MN AND WESTERN WI IS OUTLINED WELL BY WHERE RUC13
SHOWS MAXIMUM H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ON NORTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM. AT THIS TIME...MAJORITY OF TSRA ARE
OCCURRING OVR CNTRL WI BUT ADDITIONAL SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA ARE
FILLING IN INTO NORTHWEST WI. FOLLOWING RUC IDEA THERE IS ENOUGH H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SCNTRL CWA TO KEEP HIGHER POPS THERE IN THE
MORNING. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY EVEN CLIP AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN THE
CNTRL CWA BUT IT IS FAIRLY LIMITED CHANCE AS THE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
OVR NORTHWEST WI WILL BE OUTRUNNING BETTER H7 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IF THEY CONTINUE ON ENE TRACK. OVERALL
IMAGINE CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE SIGNIFICANTLY OVR
MOST AREAS AFTER MID MORNING /POST 15Z-16Z/ SINCE SFC FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING S/SE OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. HAVE HAD SOME PEA-SIZED HAIL
OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER STORMS AND THAT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST UPSTREAM AND 30-35 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FCST OVR CNTRL PORTIONS OF UPR MI.
AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHWEST. STILL APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIOD
OF LOWER CIGS AND MAYBE SOME FOG AS HIGHER DWPNTS JUST BEHIND FRONT
SETTLE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND WINDS PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE LIFTING OVR
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG
MAY HAVE BEEN ENHANCED DUE TO THE DECENT COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVR
LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT THAT MAY HAVE PROVIDED ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWEST
OF LK SUPERIOR BUT THERE IS ALSO A MUCH LARGER AREA OF VERY DRY
AIR/CLEAR SKIES PUSHING ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
REALLY HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW MUCH/IF ANY FOG IS PRESENT OVR
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FCST FOR LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT DRYING TO WIN OUT PRETTY EASILY AFTER MID AFTN ONCE
BLYR DWPNTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S/MID-UPR 20S AS HIGH BEGINS TO
NOSE INTO LK SUPERIOR REGION. SO SKY FCST SHAKES OUT AS FAIRLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH FAIRLY SHARP CLEARING TREND BY MID
AFTN FM WEST-TO-EAST. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...TEMPS SHOULD
BE HELD DOWN MOST AREAS WITH GRADIENT WIND FLOWING OFF LK SUPERIOR.
PROBABLY WILL SEE STEADY TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND READINGS
PUSHING INTO LOWER 50S FAR INLAND/LK MICHIGAN SHORE WITH LESS LAKE
MODIFICATION GIVEN THE NORTHWEST WINDS. DWPNTS AND RH VALUES COULD
CRASH OVR INTERIOR WEST BY LATE AFTN. CURRENT FCST HAS RH VALUES IN
THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...BUT IF WINDS STAY MORE NW IT COULD GET WARMER
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES BLO 30 PCT.
VERY DRY AIRMASS BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVR AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OFF LK SUPERIOR BUT GIVEN PWATS
FALLING TOWARD 50 PCT OF NORMAL...EXPECT INTERIOR CWA TO TRY TO
DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND COOL OFF TOWARD THE LOWER DWPNTS ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION. BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY...MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE ON FIRE WX WITH LOWER RH VALUES. HAVE DWPNTS IN AFTN MIXING
OUT INTO THE UPR TEENS OVR INTERIOR SECTIONS...RESULTING IN RH
VALUES BLO 30 PCT. WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY GUSTY /LEADING TO LESS
IMPACT ON FIRE WX CUSTOMERS/ BUT A STEADY NORTH WIND UP TO 15 MPH IS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE FLOW...PROBABLY WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME REACHING 40
DEGREES ALONG LK SUPERIOR SHORE. MIXING HEIGHTS MUCH HIGHER TOWARD
WI BORDER /H85-H8 PER FCST SOUNDINGS/ ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO
THE 50S. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE PRETTY TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WHILE THE SFC RIDGE
WILL BE OVERHEAD AT 00Z THURSDAY...THE MAIN HIGH WILL LIKELY RESIDE
OVER HUDSON BAY AND NW ONTARIO. EXPECT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO SLOWLY SIDE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING 25 TO 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR COASTLINE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...LESS THAN 10KTS AWAY FROM ANY LAKE BREEZES THAT MAY
COME IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE CHANGE FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SFC LOW ORGANIZING OVER
EASTERN WY/MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LOOK FOR A SLOW RETURN TO
S/SE WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
INCREASED S/SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS SATURDAY /AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT CROSSING SATURDAY NIGHT/. SPECIFICS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE A
LITTLE TRICKY...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE 500MB RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE 03/00Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A
TRACE OF RAIN FALLING SATURDAY NIGHT AS MUCH OF THE ENERGY REMAINS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS CANADA MAINLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THE
03/00Z RUN OF THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF WELL NEEDED RAIN...WITH STILL THE BEST
CHANCE BEHIND THE LOW. GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR EVEN RAIN...KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TS IN THE FCST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20KTS OUT OF THE W
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS FROM NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
AT 12Z SATURDAY...TO NORTHERN ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY ON SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS IN SIGHT...WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND
0C SUNDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8C MONDAY AFTERNOON ON N-NW
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. DID NOT GO WITH FALLING SFC TEMPS FOR
MONDAY QUITE YET...EVEN THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BET BEHIND THE
LOW...PARTICULARLY IN NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR CAN LINGER OVER THE
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
FORCING AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY /CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/ HAS PROMPTED SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPPER MI AND ALSO
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF MN AND WESTERN WI. HAVE MENTION
OF VCTS AND CB FOR ALL TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSES THROUGH TAF SITES EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AND FOR CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH LEVELS OF DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS
SHIFT. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FOG AT KCMX AND KSAW ONCE WINDS
SHIFT...SINCE COOL MOISTENED LAKE LAYER WILL BE ADVECTED ON TO THE
LAND WITH A NNW FLOW. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS...AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE TO WEST WILL ALLOW DRY AIR AND CLEARING SKIES
TO START WORKING IN FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING
NEAR THIS LEVEL W AND CENTRAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFF WSW WINDS. IN THE
SHORTER TERM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
MAKE WAY FOR LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW
DEVELOPING OVER MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING WILL
SLIDE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JMW/JLA
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
316 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY THIS EVENING.
AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER...WITH A SERIES OF CHILLY NIGHTS BUT
RELATIVELY MILD DAYS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
QUITE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGHS ANCHORED ALONG BOTH COASTS
OF NOAM WITH A REX BLOCK-LIKE FEATURE STUCK BETWEEN
THESE...KEEPING THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT INTERESTING OVER WHAT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE LARGE-SCALE RIDGING.
THE FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM AND THROUGH TODAY IS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MADE THE MOST
OF VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY...CONTINUOUSLY FIRING ALONG THE H85
MOISTURE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. THROUGH
DAYBREAK...I EXPECT AREAS FROM M-32 NORTH TO SEE SOME SHRA ACTIVITY
/WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES/...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWN NEAR
MANISTEE.
THINGS GET TRICKIER AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE IMPACTS
OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN NOT SO
CERTAIN. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL PUSH EAST
AND THEN SOUTHEAST...OVER THE TOP OF THE H5 RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST ARRIVAL NEAR MY SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 12Z. THE HRRR IS ON
BOARD WITH THIS...AS IS OUR PREVIOUS GRIDDED FORECAST AND WILL
CONTINUE EARLY MORNING LIKELY POPS BASICALLY SOUTH OF M-72 AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE 75. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO
DIE AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH LITTLE TO HANG YOUR HAT ON FOR FORCING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH
INCREASES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SOME EXTENT. STILL...WITH MOIST
PLUME OVERHEAD...AND CVA FROM WAVE NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN
ONTARIO...EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE H85
COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IS PRETTY LOW IN HOW THIS EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT IS WHY
I/LL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WON/T
MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS GIVEN CLOUD COVER. REALLY LIKED INHERITED
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S /WITH A FEW MID 50S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS/ AND
WILL CONTINUE THEM IN THIS PACKAGE. THIS IS TOWARDS THE COOLER END
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
TONIGHT...DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION AS INVERTED TROUGH SCOOTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. WITH WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN
COUPLED...I DON/T EXPECT LOWS TO FALL ALL THAT FAR...WITH FAIRLY
HOMOGENEOUS VALUES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30 EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW VEERING NORTHERLY
DURING THE DAY UNDER CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. GIVEN VERY DRY
ARRIVING AIRMASS...EXPECT A SUNNY/MSUNNY DAY WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE
TO ENSURE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DON/T MIX
QUITE AS HIGH AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...AND UNDER COLD
ADVECTION FEEL TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A LITTLE. THEREFORE...WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE /MET/ WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S OVER EASTERN UPPER...TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
NORTHERN LOWER. GIVEN THE FLOW TRAJECTORIES AND SUBSIDENT
FLOW...EXPECT A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TUMBLING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MINIMUM RH/S
INTO THE 20S. WITH GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WORDING IN THE MORNING HWO...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW RED FLAG LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ONLY VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL STILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE PAC NW UPPER TROF EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION...BUT LIKELY NOT
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BEFORE THEN...THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WED NIGHT-SAT...A REASONABLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE-STARVED...AND
WILL BRING NO MORE THAN SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...PRIMARILY TO EASTERN
UPPER AND NE LOWER MI. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA...HELPING TO MAINTAIN 850MB TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8C
RANGE BY THU MORNING. WARM ADVECTION (ON N TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW) AND
AIRMASS MODIFICATION BEGIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BUT WE WILL STILL SEE
SOMEWHAT COOLISH TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. EXPECT
MINS MAINLY IN THE 20S...AND COULD DEFINITELY SEE TEENS IN THE USUAL
COLD INTERIOR LOCALES. GIVEN OUR EARLY START TO THE GROWING
SEASON...FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD WELL BE NEEDED ON BOTH NIGHTS.
WE/LL SEE ENOUGH SUN TO KEEP MAX TEMPS RESPECTABLE THURSDAY...MID
40S TO AROUND 50. RH LEVELS WILL BE PRETTY LOW DESPITE THE COOLISH
TEMPS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS (PERHAPS LOWER) AT PEAK HEATING.
FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WON/T QUITE HAVE ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
BREEZE TO MAKE FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...AND
WILL APPROACH 60F IN SPOTS SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AFTER
A DAY WITH HARDLY ANY WIND FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY BREEZE
SATURDAY COULD ALSO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT...THOUGH FOR NOW
(LIKE THURSDAY) FORECAST WINDS AREN/T QUITE STRONG ENOUGH.
LATER PERIODS...TIMING AGREEMENT REMAINS DECENT ON LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING TOWARD HUDSON BAY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING MI LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS STILL
IN ORDER WAY OUT THEN. DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL SOLUTION OF CHOICE...
MAY HAVE ENOUGH COOL AIR AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW TO PRODUCE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS AMONGST
THE CHILLIEST/MOST MOIST BY MONDAY...IT HAS BEEN KNOWN TO OVERDUE
THESE SORTS OF THINGS FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO PULL INTO THE REGION AS
OF THIS WRITING...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FIRING FURTHER WEST BACK
OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT GRADUALLY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A SHRA
POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK AT PLN/TVC/MBL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
STEADIER PRECIPITATION TO REACH MBL/TVC AROUND DAYBREAK /MISSING
APN AND PLN TO THE SOUTH/ AND LAST THROUGH THE MORNING /PROVIDING
SOME MVFR VSBYS/ WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AFTER
THIS PUSHES THROUGH...EXPECT WE/LL SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP
BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES TOWARDS THIS EVENING...CLEARING
THINGS OUT.
LLWS A THREAT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS 1.5KFT WINDS ARE NEAR 30KTS AT
MBL/TVC/PLN BASED ON VWP ANALYSIS ALONG WITH NEAR TERM MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5KTS FOR THE MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 8G14KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10KTS /EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MBL/ ARE
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW LEVELS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON
WEDNESDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE AFORMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JA
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JA
MARINE...JA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
355 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS IS CLEARLY RAINFALL TRENDS/AMOUNTS...AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO GRADUALLY
LUMBERS EASTWARD NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
MID-SOUTH BY THURSDAY. CERTAINLY PARTS OF THE CWA ARE GOING TO SEE
SOME WELL-TIMED BENEFICIAL RAINS IN EXCESS OF 0.75-INCH. ALSO NOT
GOING TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE CWA LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT
STRETCHED NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM A FAIRLY WEAK LOW
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...A
BROAD...ROUGHLY 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO ND. WITH THE CWA POSITIONED WITHIN THE
HEART OF THE MAIN NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...STEADY
NORTH WINDS HAVE PREVAILED ALL NIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
COMMONLY 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT GENERALLY FALLING SHORT
OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST PLACES. RADAR...11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AUTOMATED OBS DEPICT A CORRIDOR OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY STARTING TO
INCREASINGLY AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A BEAVER CITY-BELOIT
LINE. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS...RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT POCKETS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA...MAINLY THE KS
COUNTIES...HAVE LIKELY TALLIED BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCH...ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS PROBABLY LESS. OTHERWISE...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
STRATUS MAINLY IN THE 800-1800 FT RANGE HAS OVERTAKEN THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH JUST A HINT OF LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE AIR HERE AT THE
WFO. UP TOP...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CLEARLY DEPICTS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER...WHILE A
RATHER PRONOUNCED RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
GETTING TO THE FORECAST AND STARTING WITH TODAY...IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS IS PROGRESSION OF NEXT BATCH OF
GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION RIDING UP INTO SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BE
ISSUING A PRE-FIRST PERIOD ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH LIKELY
POPS THROUGH 12Z FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF A BEAVER CITY-
BELOIT LINE. WITH RUC ADVERTISING AT LEAST 500 J/KG MUCAPE IN
THESE AREAS...OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF BUT FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FOLLOWING LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROGS...ALONG WITH
00Z 4KM WRF-NMM....MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE...AND FAIL TO PUSH VERY FAR INTO THE NEB CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST KS ROTATES BACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
MOVING ON TO THE DAYTIME 12Z-00Z TIME FRAME...ASSUMING THAT THE
CURRENT CONVECTION DISSIPATES OR MOVES OUT BY AROUND
SUNRISE...REALLY NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN A BIT OF A
LULL IN BETWEEN PUSHES OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WAITING FOR THE NEXT
PRIMARY CHUNK OF ENERGY TO ROTATE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A RESULT...ACTUALLY HAVE NO
PRECIPITATION MENTIONED WHATSOEVER ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...AND ONLY 20-50 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...WITH EVEN THIS POTENTIALLY BEING TOO
MUCH. EVEN IN AREAS WITH NO EXPECTATION OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP...SUPPOSE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE PAST
SUNRISE...BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK ON
UPDATE IN A FEW HOURS. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES SURVIVE/MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE
WITH CONTINUED MUCAPE AVERAGING GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG...BUT
POSSIBLY COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SMALL HAIL. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPS TODAY...FEEL THAT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING MET/MAV
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS THE WAY TO GO...AS LOW CLOUDS AND STEADY
NORTHERLY BREEZES OF 15-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. MAY
STILL BE TOO WARM IN SPOTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM FOR MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST WESTERN AREAS...AND MAYBE SOME LOW 60S IN THE EAST. IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE HIGHS WOULD BE
VERY NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THIS IS WHEN LEGITIMATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL RAMP UP...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN
SHORT...UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF THE PARENT MID
LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY OVER THE OK
PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE...A CLASSIC...GENERALLY EAST-WEST BAND OF
STEADY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS KS THIS EVENING...AND HAVE POPS PRIOR
TO 06Z RANGING FROM ONLY 20 PERCENT NEAR KGRI...TO 90 PERCENT IN
MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL KS WHERE THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS WILL SET UP.
FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD...THEN HAVE HIGH 70-90 POPS EXPANDING
NORTHWARD OUT OF KS INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN TRENDS OF LATEST 06Z NAM...ALONG WITH 4KM
WRF-NMM...AM STARTING TO WONDER IF NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
VALLEY/NANCE ETC. WILL SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING BEFORE SUNRISE WED
MORNING...AND A TIGHTER POP GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HAVES AND HAVE
NOTS MAY PROVE NECESSARY. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXPECT AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA TO MEASURE BETWEEN
0.25-0.75 INCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN...A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-80. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3
OF THE CWA...BUT EVEN SMALL HAIL SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY.
WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
PARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRAVERSES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE KS/OK BORDER. KEPT A BROAD AREA OF LIKELY POPS GOING CWA-
WIDE THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM/ECWMF CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN 1/4 OR SO OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH
OF HWY 92...COULD STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH...AND POPS IN THESE AREAS
INCLUDING ORD/GREELEY MAY NEED TONED DOWN IN LATER FORECASTS. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/ONGOING PRECIP...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH ONLY LOW-MID 50S MOST
AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST AS THE PARENT LOW PROGRESSES TO NEAR THE OK/AR
BORDER...AND IT MAY VERY WELL END UP THAT MOST OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2...COULD STAY HIGH AND DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL CONTINUE 20-40 POPS
CWA-WIDE.
THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT DRY...RUNNING WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW LIGHT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD
FLIRT WITH PARTS OF THE KS CWA. WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED TO RETURN...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...BUT AM STAYING JUST BELOW THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE BLEND FOR NOW. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH BOTH
THE NAM/GFS ARE DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEB/KS...BUT FOR
NOW MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS TIME...SUPPOSE SOME
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY AT LEAST INTO THE 1-2 MILE RANGE IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA EACH OF THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS...BUT
WITH PRECIP GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AT LEAST
THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS...NOT LOOKING LIKE AN OBVIOUS SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD...IMPACTFUL FOG.
IN CLOSING...THIS SYSTEM WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A BENEFICIAL
RAINER IN MANY AREAS...HELPING MAKE UP FOR A MARCH PRECIP DEFICIT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH RANGE IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
GRIDS AIMING FOR TOTALS RANGING FROM AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80...BUT ONLY 0.25-0.50 INCH...AND
MAYBE NOT EVEN THAT MUCH...FOR SOME NORTHERN COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AN UPPER
LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SFC TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. AS
SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SETTING UP BY AFTN AND MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTHWARD WITH
DPS RISING DURING THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH MAIN FORCING WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION...MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
THETA E ADVECTION FRIDAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND WILL MAINTAIN OUR
CURRENT LOW POPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY
NIGHT THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...MUCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG...AND COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO.
EASTER WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND SEASONAL OVERALL. A
1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEING THE FRONT AND SETTLES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. SFC DPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO THE
TEENS IN OUR NW WITH 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE DRY AIRMASS.
LOOKING LIKE A MUCH COLDER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY HOWEVER
NOT NECESSARILY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE 30S IN GENERAL AND AGREE
PREVIOUS SHIFTS THAT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO AND TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY REGION. BRUNT OF
COLD AIR REMAINS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...HOWEVER SOME COOLER
AIR DOES BACK INTO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS BEING
SAID...ALTHOUGH HIGHS MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM SUNDAY...TEMPS
OVERALL ARE STILL LOOKING SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
AVIATION...06Z TAF. THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE MARKED WITH FAIRLY
WINDY CONDITIONS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 20KTS OR SO AND GUST NEAR 30KTS. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH STILL
BREEZY...WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD UNTIL THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW LIFTS FARTHER NORTH. CLOUD
COVER FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ALTHOUGH
SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1214 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE MARKED WITH FAIRLY
WINDY CONDITIONS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 20KTS OR SO AND GUST NEAR 30KTS. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH STILL
BREEZY...WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD UNTIL THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW LIFTS FARTHER NORTH. CLOUD
COVER FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ALTHOUGH
SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND PUT IN SOME DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHEAST. THE NAM AND OBSERVATIONS
TO THE NORTH SUPPORT THIS. INCREASED SKY COVER TO CLOUDY FOR
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED AND ARE QUITE WARM.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS
SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING...BUT HAS HELD OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO INCREASE TO THE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR WEST. WILL LEAVE THE WIND
ADVISORY AS IS.
THE POSITION OF THE FRONT IS KEY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE CURRENT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE THE NAM AND GFS HAVE IT A
BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THE BEST MUCAPES ARE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE OVER 1000J/KG CAPES FAR
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS STARTS TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND PUSHES
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD.
LOOKING AT THE TIME FRAME STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH THE IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION FROM A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHOWING THE LOW CENTERED
OVER THE PANHANDLES OF TX/OK...BUT MORE VARIANCES START TO SHOW UP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM DOESNT
MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS TO THE
EAST EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST REGION UP INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS...AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TO RANGE IN LOCATION FROM
SC KS TO WRN OK. INCREASED LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL HELP WITH THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS INCREASED LOW/MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW SHIFTS INTO
THE CWA. DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WED
EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE MODELS/SREF PROBS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
LINGERING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA. EXPECTING
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY N/NE WINDS AS THE MAIN SFC LOW
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW/MID 50S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT
PUSHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE MO RIVER...AND PUSHED POPS BACK WEST TO
INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LATEST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT DRY. SEE A SLIGHT BUMP IN HIGHS BUT TEMPS REMAIN ON THE
RELATIVELY COOL SIDE /COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL NEAR
OR ABOVE AVG/...WITH THE CWA REMAINING ON THE WRN/SRN FRINGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...AND AM EXPECTING LOWER 60S.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND EXPAND FURTHER EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS VARY SOME THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THIS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ELONGATED LOW OVER WRN/CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE THE EC SHOWS ANY LOW
LOCATED OFF THE PAC NW COAST. KEPT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT POPS GO ALL
THE WAY SOUTH TROUGH THE CWA WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW MORE
COVERAGE. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SET UP JUST WEST OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY...AND PUSH THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MUCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 7-800 J/KG...SO THREAT OF SOME
STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
KEPT THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
DRY...THOUGH THE GFS TRIES TO LINGER SOME POPS IN THE EAST EARLY ON
SAT MORNING. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS DO VARY SOME
ON THE TIMING. EC IS ON THE QUICKER SIDE...WITH THE FRONT CLEARING
THE CWA SAT MORNING...WHILE THE GFS WOULD BE MORE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOOKS TO BE BREEZY DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND THE FRONT. MORE ZONAL/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS FOR SUN/MON WITH A RIDGE SET UP OVER THE
SRN/SWRN CONUS...WITH NO NOTABLE SYSTEM LOOKING TO PASS THROUGH.
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND IS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A PLEASANT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. MONDAY COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
WINDS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...BUT STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER NICE DAY
WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
MVFR CIGS HAVE REACHED KOFK AND KLNK...AND SHOULD REACH KOMA
BETWEEN 06-08Z. KEPT KOFK CIGS JUST ON THE LOW END OF
MVFR...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY A DIP INTO HIGHER-END IFR
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY...BEFORE
LIFTING INTO VFR RANGE...BUT ALL SITES SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST VFR
CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE.
MAYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR SKY...POP/WEATHER...AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THIS EVENING. OVERCAST STRATUS DECK HAS ENCROACHED INTO
NORTHWEST CWA...AND RUC/NAM/HRRR PROGS INDICATE IT WILL OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN IA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OR ALL OF
TOMORROW AS WELL. HAVE BUMPED CLOUDS TO OVERCAST/CLOUDY COVERAGE
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TOMORROW.
PRECIP HAS REMAINED MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...WITH JUST A
FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO MENTION JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO
REMOVED MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA AND ADDED
DRIZZLE...AS KLBF RADAR HAS A DRIZZLE APPEARANCE WITH LIGHT PRECIP
ON THE KONL OB.
FINALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABRUPTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...HAVE UPDATED THE TEMPERATURE TREND FOR A SHARP DROPOFF
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLOWER DROPOFF THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.
MAYES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER AND IF A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
AT 20Z...THE COLD FRONT HAD FINALLY MADE IT INTO NORFOLK AND THEIR
TEMPERATURES WERE BEGINNING TO FALL. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE LOW
CLOUDS HAD MADE IT INTO THE THE ONEILL AREA AND TEMPERATURES WERE
ONLY IN THE 50S. WINDS IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF NEBRASKA WERE
QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH IN SPOTS.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE HIGHER UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S DEGREE DEWPOINTS AT 20Z EXTENDED FROM BEATRICE TO OMAHA
AND THESE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE 4KM WRF HAD
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE 18Z NAM WAS DRY...THE
LATEST RUC HAD SOME STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD FAIRBURY AND THE GFS
HAD AN AREA SIMILAR TO THE 4KM WRF...BUT SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST
AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT AND
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS GOOD INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PARAMETERS DO
NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE IN THIS AREA. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK AND
THE SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED BASED ON CONDITIONAL FACTORS AS
SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING THEY COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE WINDY
CONDITIONS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45...BUT HAVE NOT GONE
WITH A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOME OF
THESE MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
THE SOUTHERN ENERGY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CLOSE OFF AND LIFT
NORTH. THIS WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OUT
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY....THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY CONDITIONS...SOUTHEAST BREEZES
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO
PUSH TO FRONT INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA...MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AND DRY WEATHER AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
135 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM MONDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NE-E SURGE IS NOW
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA. THIS SURGE AT THIS TIME BEST
ILLUSTRATED WITH 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY TRENDS OVERLAID WITH
LAPS SFC WIND FIELDS. LOOK FOR A MUCH MORE STABLE...COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD THE ILM CWA. THE COOLER AND DRIER PORTIONS OF
THIS AIR MASS WILL LIE ACROSS THE NE PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. WITH
THE SFC FRONT STALLING ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...A SHALLOWER
COOL/DRY AIR MASS CHANGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE SC PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LOWER MINS BEING FORECAST ACROSS THE ILM
NC CWA...WITH ILM SC LOWS AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 DEGREES HIER THEN THE
ILM NC CWA. NULL POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. NAMBUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL FEW TO SCT SC
MAINLY FOR THE ILM SC CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL STICK WITH A
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OFF TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH
EARLY TUESDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON. SOME MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ENSUE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A SHORT AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL HOLD ON FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH SOME
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS EMANATING FROM TEXAS...AND
DEEPENING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES THEY MAY BE
ABLE TO SERVE AS SOME WEAK FORCING LOCALLY. BARRING THIS POSSIBILITY
MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ADVECTION OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TUESDAY NIGHT VERY MILD
ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAKENED ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING CLEARER PASSAGE OF
SOME WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS. A PREFRONTAL PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL TEND
TO FOCUS MOST OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN ZONES
INITIALLY. HOWEVER SINCE STORMS WILL HAVE A WELL DEFINED EASTWARD
MOTION THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT GRADIENT IN FCST POPS AT THIS
TIME. QPF WILL BE HIGHER OVER WRN ZONES (ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE LOW).
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE SEEING A
HIGH IN THE LOW 80S. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
LOOKS QUITE MOISTURE-CHALLENGED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A MID LEVEL CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS EARLY FOLLOWED BY BRIEF
RIDGING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE PERIOD SUBTLE TROUGHING WILL
MOVE ACROSS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE FOR FRIDAY TRANSITIONING TO A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY AS THE LATEST GFS...AND PAST COUPLE OF CYCLES FOR THAT
MATTER SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA THEN OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF QUICKLY. THE ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLES ARE SIMILAR BUT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. I HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY MATCHING HPC AND INCREASED POPS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING TO ADDRESS SLOWER TIMING WITH A SYSTEM THAT REMAINS CLOSED
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BEFORE REBOUNDING QUICKLY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING COUPLED WITH THE BEST RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 40S CWA WIDE. SOME CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS COULD SEE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW 45.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN W AND S OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DEWPOINTS
LOWER WITH DRIEST OF AIR AT LBT AND ILM. FRONT HAS STALLED AND
BECOME RATHER DIFFUSE AND WITH THAT...SOME MID CLOUDS WILL SPILL
BACK N ACROSS FLO AND PERHAPS MYR THROUGH SUNRISE. CONTINUED VFR
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 00Z AT FLO AND MYR AS
WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO MVFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM MONDAY...POST FRONTAL NE-E SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ILM WATERS...AND IS PROGGED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT BUOY OBS AND HRRR WIND OUTPUT INDICATE SPEEDS
OF AROUND 15 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY DOWN TO
10-15 KT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WHERE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME AND THE
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE ENDS. LOOK FOR SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THRUOUT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SEAS PRIMARILY A REFLECTION OF SHORT PERIOD
WIND DRIVEN WAVES RUNNING AT 4-5 SECOND PERIODS...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
UNDERLYING AND WEAK 1 FT OR LESS EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT A 10
SECOND PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY AFTERNOON BRINGING
VEERING AND PERHAPS DECREASING WINDS. VEERING CONTINUES TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A MORE DEFINED SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. NO REAL SWELL
ENERGY ON THE RADAR SO SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT.
WEDNESDAY BRINGS A PREFRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ADD ABOUT A FOOT TO THE PREDOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW INITIALLY WILL VEER A BIT TO MORE
TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS WELL TO
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM SO WE COULD SEE WINDS VEER EVEN MORE THROUGH FRIDAY
THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. AS
USUAL SURGES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME BUT SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WAVEWATCH SEAS
INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET EARLY TO 4-7 FEET LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
STRONGER FETCH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HOEHLER
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...KEEBLER
AVIATION...RJD/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
357 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...
POTENT UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE
TEXAS HANDLE TONIGHT. PACIFIC FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF A JUNCTION...
BRADY... ABILENE...HASKELL LINE. IT WAS STILL UNSTABLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH RUC MUCAPES OF 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS
OF 40 KTS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF THE PACIFIC FRONT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER WESTERLY AIR AT
THIS SURFACE WILL WORK EASTWARD BY NOON...ENDING THE SEVERE
THREAT. THERE AS OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER...AS 700 MB MOISTURE
WAS WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY DESERT AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON...ELEVATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN ELEVATE FIRE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE LOW IN NW TEXAS MOVES NE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. COOL AIR
FILTERS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. LATER THIS WEEK...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIFT
OF MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER SO KEPT
POPS AT 20 PERCENT.
.FIRE WEATHER.
GUSTY DRY WEST WINDS WILL ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE LOW IN NW TEXAS MOVES INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 79 50 81 49 83 / 10 10 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 84 47 85 49 90 / 10 10 0 0 0
JUNCTION 81 46 87 48 91 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1151 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.UPDATE...
HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 09Z. COLD FRONT FINALLY STARTING TO
SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THESE AREAS...WITH TIGHT GRADIENT NORTHWEST OF
SURFACE LOW OVER TX PANHANDLE SUPPORTING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.
BELIEVE THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THIS
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AND THUS WILL KEEP ADVISORY CONFINED TO
THIS AREA FOR NOW. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA
/AS IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT CLAYTON NM/. EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...TO BE VERY LIGHT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST CWA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WHERE
MID/UPPER FORCING WILL MEET UP WITH BETTER MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE COLD FRONT.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
AVIATION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z TO 03Z WEDNESDAY. LEFT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS
OUT OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER NOT
RULING OUT COMPLETELY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG INITIALLY AT
THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES...AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS SUSTAINED
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY
15Z TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH APPROXIMATELY 06Z TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS ONLY
ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS CIMARRON COUNTY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...AND ALLOWED IT TO EXPIRE FOR DALLAM AND HARTLEY COUNTIES.
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL DATA SHOW A TIGHT LOW-
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT/REINFORCING SURGE OF NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO
IMPACT THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT OBS
FROM KENTON...BOISE CITY...AND SPRINGFIELD CONTINUE TO SHOW ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS...AND KENTON JUST BRIEFLY HIT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA.
LET THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 9 PM. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS
THAN 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT.
ALSO ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. LINE OF CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AS PACIFIC COLD
FRONT OVERTOOK DRYLINE. THIS LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT MAX ROUNDING CLOSED
LOW OVER NM. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS VORT LOBE CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. SEVERE THREAT WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN HALF OF THE OK PANHANDLE...BUT
WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH THERE AS WELL LATER TONIGHT AS PACIFIC FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN CWA
EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST...SQUEEZING THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY EASTWARD.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ONE TIER OF COUNTIES WESTWARD.
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OK AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...WERE RETREATING TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTHEAST INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PIVOTING AROUND
CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NM. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT A LITTLE FARTHER EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE GETS OVERTAKEN
BY PACIFIC FRONT AND SHOVED EASTWARD.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM NEW MEXICO. THIS
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THE CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY 15
AND 20 TO 25 AND 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAINLY THIS EVENING AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS CUTOFF FROM THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR
CWA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVE SOUTHEAST AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST CWA UNDER A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
THE MID EVENING AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES
SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ALONG A DRYLINE AND THEN THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY
ROTATING AROUND IT AS WELL...SO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL PICK UP EACH TIME ONE THESE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
ON TUESDAY...WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EASTERN CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS DRYLINE WILL HOLD IN THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE WIND SHEAR ALOFT INCREASES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLING
SUNDAY/S HIGHS BACK 10 TO 15 DEGREES.
FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE WINDS
WILL THEN PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. THE CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
DALLAM...HARTLEY...SHERMAN.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
11/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1142 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.AVIATION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z TO 03Z WEDNESDAY. LEFT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS
OUT OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER NOT
RULING OUT COMPLETELY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG INITIALLY AT
THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES...AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS SUSTAINED
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY
15Z TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH APPROXIMATELY 06Z TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS ONLY
ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS CIMARRON COUNTY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...AND ALLOWED IT TO EXPIRE FOR DALLAM AND HARTLEY COUNTIES.
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL DATA SHOW A TIGHT LOW-
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT/REINFORCING SURGE OF NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO
IMPACT THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT OBS
FROM KENTON...BOISE CITY...AND SPRINGFIELD CONTINUE TO SHOW ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS...AND KENTON JUST BRIEFLY HIT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA.
LET THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 9 PM. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS
THAN 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT.
ALSO ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. LINE OF CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AS PACIFIC COLD
FRONT OVERTOOK DRYLINE. THIS LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT MAX ROUNDING CLOSED
LOW OVER NM. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS VORT LOBE CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. SEVERE THREAT WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN HALF OF THE OK PANHANDLE...BUT
WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH THERE AS WELL LATER TONIGHT AS PACIFIC FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN CWA
EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST...SQUEEZING THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY EASTWARD.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ONE TIER OF COUNTIES WESTWARD.
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OK AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...WERE RETREATING TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTHEAST INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PIVOTING AROUND
CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NM. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT A LITTLE FARTHER EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE GETS OVERTAKEN
BY PACIFIC FRONT AND SHOVED EASTWARD.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM NEW MEXICO. THIS
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THE CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY 15
AND 20 TO 25 AND 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAINLY THIS EVENING AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS CUTOFF FROM THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR
CWA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVE SOUTHEAST AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST CWA UNDER A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
THE MID EVENING AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES
SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ALONG A DRYLINE AND THEN THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY
ROTATING AROUND IT AS WELL...SO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL PICK UP EACH TIME ONE THESE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
ON TUESDAY...WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EASTERN CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS DRYLINE WILL HOLD IN THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE WIND SHEAR ALOFT INCREASES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLING
SUNDAY/S HIGHS BACK 10 TO 15 DEGREES.
FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE WINDS
WILL THEN PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. THE CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
DALLAM...HARTLEY...SHERMAN.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
11/08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
408 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
UPDATED TO ADD SHORT TERM..AVIATION AND MARINE.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER MSP EARLIER IN REGION OF
STRONG LAYER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON NOSE OF S-SW 30-45 KT 850 MB
WINDS IMPINGING ON BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL WI.
FORCING WEAKENS AS THESE WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE
BEST CROSS-ISOTHERM FLOW SHIFTING EAST OF STATE BY 12Z. THIS SHIFT
NOTED WITH LATEST DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...IN
LINE WITH RUC AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING...BUT COULD NOT
DROP COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON AS COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ELEVATED CAPE WITH BOUNDARY...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB SO WILL ONLY MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER.
HIGHS TO BE REACHED LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DROP WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. 925MB TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WITH MID
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST.
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE MID 30S NORTH...AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH BY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTH...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL MEANDER SOUTHEAST TO MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND
EXITING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A VERY DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. NO PRECIP CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES.
THOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...MODELS ARE INDICATING A PUSH OF
COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP CHILLY
AIR COMING IN OFF THE LAKE. EVEN SO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL...EVEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. MAY SEE SOME FROST WITH
LOWS TEMPS MORE TOWARD NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THU NIGHT WHEN THE
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS SHOWING A PAIR OF WAVES TO SLIDE THROUGH SAT/SAT NIGHT AND
SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KEEP SOME POPS GOING. LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
MAY EVEN PUSH THE MILDER TEMPS TO THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IF STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING...REDUCING PROSPECTS OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION
TODAY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT PLAN IS TO
LEAVE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF 12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH COLD ADVECTION STRATUS TO REMAIN IN THE
3500-4000 FT RANGE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO
25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
.MARINE...
HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES
REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA WITH WINDS EASING A BIT TONIGHT. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. WAVES WILL
REMAIN HIGH INTO THURSDAY...THEN LOWER WITH SHORTER FETCH AS WINDS
VEER TO THE EAST AND EASE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
.SHORT TERM...OVERNIGHT
1130 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
THE 03.00Z GFS CONTINUES TO OVERDUE THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...IGNORED IT WITH THIS UPDATE AND INSTEAD LEANED
MORE TOWARD THE NAM/WRF...RUC...AND HRRR SOLUTIONS WHICH SHOW THAT
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...RAISED THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTY TO CATEGORICAL FOR OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS...MUCH OF THIS IS
BEING AIDED BY THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. WHEN THIS ACCOUNTED
FOR...THESE VALUES ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. WE HAVE HAD A FEW HAIL
REPORTS NEAR THE CITIES...BUT THIS IS MAINLY A RESULT OF THE
ELEVATED CAPE UP 1500 J/KG. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH...BUT THE THREAT WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND
SHORT LIVED.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
249 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MAINTAINING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFF FOR THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 02.12Z GFS...ECMWF AND GEM WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A LITTLE FASTER BUT ALL SHOW AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT
MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF DROPPING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS WHILE THE GFS IS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WILL HONOR THE ECMWF WITH A SMALL RAIN
CHANCE FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
1130 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE
TWIN CITIES AND EAU CLAIRE. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
PRODUCED UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL IN THE CITIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STAY NORTH OF BOTH THE TAF SITES...SO NO PLANS TO INCLUDE
THEM IN THE TAFS. HWOEVER THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST
AROUND 03.08Z AND KLSE AROUND 03.10Z. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM EAST TO NORTH AND CIELINGS WILL BECOME MVFR. THESE
CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY RISE AND BECOME VFR DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1130 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
418 AM MDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT TUE APR 3 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...AMOUNTS AND EVEN
PHASE AS LONG AS UPPER LOW IS IN THE AREA. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST IS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
PATH AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST.
THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE DOING BEST ON THE JET WINDS IN THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FIELD IN THIS PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE NAM AND
ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE FIELD. ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD...THE GFS WAS DOING THE BEST AND A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE NAM. THE OTHER MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO WARM WITH THE NAM IN
SOME PLACES SLIGHTLY COOL.
TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT STARTS OUT OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...THE BEST JET LIFT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. ALSO CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT ENTERS THE AREA. CURRENT
GRIDS CAPTURE AREA OF GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THIS AREA
IS ALSO MATCHING UP WITH THE SREF QPF. DUE TO SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES...SOME AREAS IN EASTERN
COLORADO ARE RECEIVING SNOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE MOST INTENSE
PRECIPITATION. KITR IS RECEIVING SNOW AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE TRENDS ON THE PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURES AND PUT IN A
RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX. BASED ON WHAT IS GOING AT THIS TIME AND
MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WILL BE INSERTING SOME
ISOLATED TRW-.
MODELS ARE COMING IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN A VERY FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DEEP UPSLOPE/MOISTURE
ALONG WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE/MESOSCALE FORCING AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT ARE ALL SHOWN BY THE MODELS. BASED ON THE PREVIOUS REASONING
LIKE THE HIGH MODEL QPFS GENERATED...HOWEVER WITH BULLSEYES IN
DIFFERENT PLACES. SREF/HPC PQPF SHOW A GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MORE THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION OF LIQUID ON VARIOUS TIME
SCALES. AS A RESULT WENT WITH MODERATE RAINFALL...AND CONTINUED
EMBEDDED CONVECTION DUE TO THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND WITH THE
HPC QPF WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BASED
ON THE MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT...CONSISTENCY...AND CURRENT FLOW
PATTERN LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.
MODELS KEEP UPSLOPE FLOW OR LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION. SO SEE NO CHANCE
TO WARM VERY MUCH. WILL ADJUST FINAL MAXES AS SEE HOW FAR CURRENT
MINS DROP.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS STATED ABOVE...LIKE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. IT IS SLOWER THAN EVERYTHING ELSE AND MAKES SENSE.
HOWEVER IT MAY NOT BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AS IT KICKS OUT DUE TO THE
STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOWER TO END AND
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HANG AROUND LONGER. WILL ADJUST MAXES LOWER
AND PRECIPITATION HIGHER BASED ON THIS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HIGHER AND LASTING LONGER IN THE EAST.
MODELS CLEAR EVERYTHING OUT BY LATER IN THE NIGHT. WIND FIELD WILL
BE LIGHT WITH LEFTOVER MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND MOIST GROUND
OVER A LARGE AREA. MORE THAN ONE MODEL GENERATES FOG AND WILL INSERT
IT IN...MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE FOG IN THE MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE MORNING COMBINED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OR UPSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH.
IN FACT WHAT IS IN THERE MAY END UP BEING TOO WARM AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN.
DO NOT EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO DRY OUT MUCH DUE TO THE
EXPECTED WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION THAT HAS JUST ENDED. ALSO MODELS
INCREASE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH DRAWS IN EVEN MORE
MOISTURE OR KEEPS IT HERE. AT THE VERY LEAST SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS BUT ALSO PROBABLY ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT TUE APR 3 2012
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BUT
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD. PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKES THE REGION BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO BE BORDERLINE. THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED TO
SOME EXTENT BY THE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING TEMPS SEASONABLE. LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT MON APR 2 2012
RUC IS HANDLING THE CLOUDS FAIRLY WELL SO HAVE USED THIS MODEL AS
WELL AS THE HRRR CONCERNING THE PRECIPITATION. MVFR CIGS AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z-11Z BEFORE ROTATING OUT OF THE AREA
AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES IN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
OF IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS TIL 16Z OR SO WHEN ANOTHER BATCH
OF PRECIP MOVES NORTH IMPACTING KGLD AROUND 16Z AND KMCK AROUND
00Z. THIS BATCH OF PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....FOLTZ
AVIATION...BAS/DDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1200 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
EASTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADD POPS
IN EASTERN OHIO AS WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE, A 1010MB IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN
NORTHERN OHIO HAS DEVELOPED WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT.
TODAY...CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR AND SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST-
CENTRAL OHIO. THUS, CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THERE.
OTHERWISE, DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE, INDICATED BY TD DEPRESSIONS OF
25-30F, SHOULD LIMIT THE INITIAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW TREKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE EVENING. FORECAST CONSISTS OF
A HRRR/LAMP BLEND, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE WARM FRONT STRADDLES THE AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY UPSTREAM IN OHIO
WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THERE AND THEN PUSH INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM/GFS INDICATE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK, SO BELIEVE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT THE ISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF
HAIL IN EASTERN OHIO. BY DAWN, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARM THAN LAMP GUIDANCE, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 50S IN NORTH-CENTRAL WV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE LATE TNGT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WL AMPLIFY FLOW
ALOFT/PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE THUS FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MOST ZONES GIVEN PROGS OF LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT LIKELY NUMBERS WL BE INCLUDED FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I 70 AS THE ADVANCING LOW IMPROVES THE MOISTURE PROFILE
FOR THOSE ZONES.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OHIO FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
OPTED TO MENTION NO MORE THAN A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME AS
MOST SREF MODEL MEMBERS SHOW RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
SHEAR.
AT ANY RATE...THAT LOW WL ALSO PULL THE COLD FRONT SUFFICIENTLY
SOUTHWARD WITH ITS WEDNESDAY PASSAGE TO QUICKLY DRY THE WEATHER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
TROUGH ALOFT/COOL HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE WL RETURN TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NORMAL...WITH FREEZES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS ACROSS THE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT ECMWF AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO DAYTIME SUNDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAM PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH A SOUTHWEST
ORIENTATION. THIS ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL STEER A COLD FRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES, USING BLEND OF GFS AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT,
TO BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A PREFRONTAL WARM UP SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY TO VALUES UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL POSTFRONTAL COOLING, ALTHOUGH THE LATTER WILL BE LIMITED
BY THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN
OHIO. RECENT HRRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW DISSIPATION BEFORE
AFFECTING ANY TAF SITES SUCH AS KZZV OR KFKL. HENCE HAVE MAINTAINED
VFR INTO EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
839 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE, COMING EAST FROM IOWA, WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ALLOWED FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 8 AM. RECENT SURFACE DATA
SHOWS SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS WILL HAVE WARMED PAST 32
BEFORE 9 AM. SO ANY REMAINING PATCHES OF FROST WILL GONE BY THEN
ALSO.
RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, WHICH WILL NEED MONITORED.
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE THIS
COMPLEX TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BEFOREHAND. MOST MODELS SUPPORT
THIS IDEA OF DISSIPATION INCLUDING RECENT HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
HOWEVER, WRF-NMM SUGGESTS DAYTIME WARMING AND AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE LAYER MOISTURE, DUE TO POSSIBLE WARM FRONTOGENESIS THIS
AFTERNOON, MAY AID REDEVELOPMENT OVER EAST CENTRAL OHIO BEFORE
EVENING.
TODAYS WARM ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. READING WERE FORECAST USING
TWEAKED SREF NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE LATE TNGT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WL AMPLIFY FLOW
ALOFT/PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE THUS FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MOST ZONES GIVEN PROGS OF LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT LIKELY NUMBERS WL BE INCLUDED FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I 70 AS THE ADVANCING LOW IMPROVES THE MOISTURE PROFILE
FOR THOSE ZONES.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OHIO FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
OPTED TO MENTION NO MORE THAN A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME AS
MOST SREF MODEL MEMBERS SHOW RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
SHEAR.
AT ANY RATE...THAT LOW WL ALSO PULL THE COLD FRONT SUFFICIENTLY
SOUTHWARD WITH ITS WEDNESDAY PASSAGE TO QUICKLY DRY THE WEATHER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
TROUGH ALOFT/COOL HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE WL RETURN TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NORMAL...WITH FREEZES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS ACROSS THE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT ECMWF AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO DAYTIME SUNDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAM PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH A SOUTHWEST
ORIENTATION. THIS ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL STEER A COLD FRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES, USING BLEND OF GFS AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT,
TO BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A PREFRONTAL WARM UP SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY TO VALUES UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL POSTFRONTAL COOLING, ALTHOUGH THE LATTER WILL BE LIMITED
BY THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH CALM WINDS INTO MID
MORNING THEN A FEW CU WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL BECOMING SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1046 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY THIS EVENING.
AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER...WITH A SERIES OF CHILLY NIGHTS BUT
RELATIVELY MILD DAYS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
SHARPENING SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO ONTARIO CONTINUES TO FLATTEN
THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...AS LOW LEVEL TROUGHING TRACKS TOWARD
EASTERN UPPER. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH CONNECTS
BACK TO A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS SHIFTING ACROSS
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. SFC-H8 WARM FRONT WELL SOUTH OF US ALONG
WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. REMOVED
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...DECAYING AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS ARENAC/GLADWIN COUNTIES. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR. WE WILL THEN BE
AWAITING UPSTREAM TROUGHING TO BRING IN SMALL CHANCE/PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. CHANCES LIKELY SMALLER THAN THAT...AS
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WANES...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF IT WILL ALREADY BE TURNING AROUND OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS. RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR RETURNS TO EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN NRN LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE WITH THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE HIGHS IN EASTERN UPPER DUE TO A BIT MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 811 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
INITIAL BATCH OF SHWRS EXITED INTO LAKE HURON BY 6 AM. THE ENHANCED
STRATIFORM AREA OF -RA WAS OVER LAKE MI AND WILL MOVE INTO NW
LOWER MI IN THE NEXT HOUR. SINCE MCS WAS OVER CENTRAL WI AT TIME
OF 313 AM FCST ISSUANCE...UNCERTAINTY HAS DIMINISHED ON ITS
ARRIVAL. SO POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100% AND HAVE TIMED THIS THRU
NRN LOWER PENINSULA. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...THE BACK EDGE SHOULD
BE OFFSHORE INTO LAKE HURON NO LATER THAN 2 PM.
THUNDER: THE BEST ARC OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS S OF M-55. BUT
THE M-55 CORRIDOR HAS THE "BEST" CHC FOR THUNDER. WE SEE THE NEW
SHWRS GOING UP OVER MANISTEE/WEXFORD COUNTIES. THAT OFFERS BETTER
POTENTIAL THAN THE STRATIFORM AREA. A TENTH OF LIQUID WAS MEASURED
AT STURGEON WI...ON THE W COAST OF LAKE MI IN THE PAST HOUR. SO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS WILL FALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
QUITE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGHS ANCHORED ALONG BOTH COASTS
OF NOAM WITH A REX BLOCK-LIKE FEATURE STUCK BETWEEN
THESE...KEEPING THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT INTERESTING OVER WHAT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE LARGE-SCALE RIDGING.
THE FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM AND THROUGH TODAY IS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MADE THE MOST
OF VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY...CONTINUOUSLY FIRING ALONG THE H85
MOISTURE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. THROUGH
DAYBREAK...I EXPECT AREAS FROM M-32 NORTH TO SEE SOME SHRA ACTIVITY
/WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES/...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWN NEAR
MANISTEE.
THINGS GET TRICKIER AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE IMPACTS
OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN NOT SO
CERTAIN. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL PUSH EAST
AND THEN SOUTHEAST...OVER THE TOP OF THE H5 RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST ARRIVAL NEAR MY SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 12Z. THE HRRR IS ON
BOARD WITH THIS...AS IS OUR PREVIOUS GRIDDED FORECAST AND WILL
CONTINUE EARLY MORNING LIKELY POPS BASICALLY SOUTH OF M-72 AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE 75. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO
DIE AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH LITTLE TO HANG YOUR HAT ON FOR FORCING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH
INCREASES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SOME EXTENT. STILL...WITH MOIST
PLUME OVERHEAD...AND CVA FROM WAVE NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN
ONTARIO...EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE H85
COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IS PRETTY LOW IN HOW THIS EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT IS WHY
I/LL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WON/T
MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS GIVEN CLOUD COVER. REALLY LIKED INHERITED
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S /WITH A FEW MID 50S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS/ AND
WILL CONTINUE THEM IN THIS PACKAGE. THIS IS TOWARDS THE COOLER END
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
TONIGHT...DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION AS INVERTED TROUGH SCOOTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. WITH WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN
COUPLED...I DON/T EXPECT LOWS TO FALL ALL THAT FAR...WITH FAIRLY
HOMOGENEOUS VALUES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30 EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW VEERING NORTHERLY
DURING THE DAY UNDER CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. GIVEN VERY DRY
ARRIVING AIRMASS...EXPECT A SUNNY/MSUNNY DAY WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE
TO ENSURE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DON/T MIX
QUITE AS HIGH AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...AND UNDER COLD
ADVECTION FEEL TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A LITTLE. THEREFORE...WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE /MET/ WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S OVER EASTERN UPPER...TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
NORTHERN LOWER. GIVEN THE FLOW TRAJECTORIES AND SUBSIDENT
FLOW...EXPECT A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TUMBLING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MINIMUM RH/S
INTO THE 20S. WITH GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WORDING IN THE MORNING HWO...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW RED FLAG LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ONLY VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL STILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE PAC NW UPPER TROF EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION...BUT LIKELY NOT
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BEFORE THEN...THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WED NIGHT-SAT...A REASONABLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE-STARVED...AND
WILL BRING NO MORE THAN SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...PRIMARILY TO EASTERN
UPPER AND NE LOWER MI. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA...HELPING TO MAINTAIN 850MB TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8C
RANGE BY THU MORNING. WARM ADVECTION (ON N TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW) AND
AIRMASS MODIFICATION BEGIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BUT WE WILL STILL SEE
SOMEWHAT COOLISH TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. EXPECT
MINS MAINLY IN THE 20S...AND COULD DEFINITELY SEE TEENS IN THE USUAL
COLD INTERIOR LOCALES. GIVEN OUR EARLY START TO THE GROWING
SEASON...FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD WELL BE NEEDED ON BOTH NIGHTS.
WE/LL SEE ENOUGH SUN TO KEEP MAX TEMPS RESPECTABLE THURSDAY...MID
40S TO AROUND 50. RH LEVELS WILL BE PRETTY LOW DESPITE THE COOLISH
TEMPS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS (PERHAPS LOWER) AT PEAK HEATING.
FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WON/T QUITE HAVE ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
BREEZE TO MAKE FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...AND
WILL APPROACH 60F IN SPOTS SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AFTER
A DAY WITH HARDLY ANY WIND FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY BREEZE
SATURDAY COULD ALSO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT...THOUGH FOR NOW
(LIKE THURSDAY) FORECAST WINDS AREN/T QUITE STRONG ENOUGH.
LATER PERIODS...TIMING AGREEMENT REMAINS DECENT ON LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING TOWARD HUDSON BAY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING MI LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS STILL
IN ORDER WAY OUT THEN. DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL SOLUTION OF CHOICE...
MAY HAVE ENOUGH COOL AIR AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW TO PRODUCE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS AMONGST
THE CHILLIEST/MOST MOIST BY MONDAY...IT HAS BEEN KNOWN TO OVERDUE
THESE SORTS OF THINGS FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 811 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
TODAY: ONE-HOUR BATCH OF VFR -RA WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. CLOUDS WILL BE MULTI-LAYERED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SE THRU 17Z /THO AT TIMES VARIABLE DIR/. THEN AN ABRUPT WSHFT TO
WNW-NW WITH AN INCREASE TO 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTINESS TO 16 KTS.
PKWND COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 KTS BRIEFLY. AFTER WSHFT...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A 1-3 HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS. THEY OVER
CURRENTLY OVER NW WI...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE
IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
TNGT: RAPID CLEARING 23-01Z. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW LEVELS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON
WEDNESDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE AFORMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
MARINE...JA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
811 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY THIS EVENING.
AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER...WITH A SERIES OF CHILLY NIGHTS BUT
RELATIVELY MILD DAYS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
INITIAL BATCH OF SHWRS EXITED INTO LAKE HURON BY 6 AM. THE ENHANCED
STRATIFORM AREA OF -RA WAS OVER LAKE MI AND WILL MOVE INTO NW
LOWER MI IN THE NEXT HOUR. SINCE MCS WAS OVER CENTRAL WI AT TIME
OF 313 AM FCST ISSUANCE...UNCERTAINTY HAS DIMINISHED ON ITS
ARRIVAL. SO POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100% AND HAVE TIMED THIS THRU
NRN LOWER PENINSULA. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...THE BACK EDGE SHOULD
BE OFFSHORE INTO LAKE HURON NO LATER THAN 2 PM.
THUNDER: THE BEST ARC OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS S OF M-55. BUT
THE M-55 CORRIDOR HAS THE "BEST" CHC FOR THUNDER. WE SEE THE NEW
SHWRS GOING UP OVER MANISTEE/WEXFORD COUNTIES. THAT OFFERS BETTER
POTENTIAL THAN THE STRATIFORM AREA. A TENTH OF LIQUID WAS MEASURED
AT STURGEON WI...ON THE W COAST OF LAKE MI IN THE PAST HOUR. SO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS WILL FALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
QUITE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGHS ANCHORED ALONG BOTH COASTS
OF NOAM WITH A REX BLOCK-LIKE FEATURE STUCK BETWEEN
THESE...KEEPING THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT INTERESTING OVER WHAT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE LARGE-SCALE RIDGING.
THE FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM AND THROUGH TODAY IS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MADE THE MOST
OF VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY...CONTINUOUSLY FIRING ALONG THE H85
MOISTURE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. THROUGH
DAYBREAK...I EXPECT AREAS FROM M-32 NORTH TO SEE SOME SHRA ACTIVITY
/WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES/...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWN NEAR
MANISTEE.
THINGS GET TRICKIER AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE IMPACTS
OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN NOT SO
CERTAIN. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL PUSH EAST
AND THEN SOUTHEAST...OVER THE TOP OF THE H5 RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST ARRIVAL NEAR MY SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 12Z. THE HRRR IS ON
BOARD WITH THIS...AS IS OUR PREVIOUS GRIDDED FORECAST AND WILL
CONTINUE EARLY MORNING LIKELY POPS BASICALLY SOUTH OF M-72 AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE 75. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO
DIE AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH LITTLE TO HANG YOUR HAT ON FOR FORCING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH
INCREASES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SOME EXTENT. STILL...WITH MOIST
PLUME OVERHEAD...AND CVA FROM WAVE NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN
ONTARIO...EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE H85
COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IS PRETTY LOW IN HOW THIS EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT IS WHY
I/LL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WON/T
MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS GIVEN CLOUD COVER. REALLY LIKED INHERITED
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S /WITH A FEW MID 50S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS/ AND
WILL CONTINUE THEM IN THIS PACKAGE. THIS IS TOWARDS THE COOLER END
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
TONIGHT...DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION AS INVERTED TROUGH SCOOTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. WITH WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN
COUPLED...I DON/T EXPECT LOWS TO FALL ALL THAT FAR...WITH FAIRLY
HOMOGENEOUS VALUES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30 EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW VEERING NORTHERLY
DURING THE DAY UNDER CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. GIVEN VERY DRY
ARRIVING AIRMASS...EXPECT A SUNNY/MSUNNY DAY WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE
TO ENSURE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DON/T MIX
QUITE AS HIGH AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...AND UNDER COLD
ADVECTION FEEL TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A LITTLE. THEREFORE...WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE /MET/ WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S OVER EASTERN UPPER...TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
NORTHERN LOWER. GIVEN THE FLOW TRAJECTORIES AND SUBSIDENT
FLOW...EXPECT A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TUMBLING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MINIMUM RH/S
INTO THE 20S. WITH GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WORDING IN THE MORNING HWO...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW RED FLAG LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ONLY VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL STILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE PAC NW UPPER TROF EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION...BUT LIKELY NOT
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BEFORE THEN...THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WED NIGHT-SAT...A REASONABLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE-STARVED...AND
WILL BRING NO MORE THAN SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...PRIMARILY TO EASTERN
UPPER AND NE LOWER MI. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA...HELPING TO MAINTAIN 850MB TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8C
RANGE BY THU MORNING. WARM ADVECTION (ON N TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW) AND
AIRMASS MODIFICATION BEGIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BUT WE WILL STILL SEE
SOMEWHAT COOLISH TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. EXPECT
MINS MAINLY IN THE 20S...AND COULD DEFINITELY SEE TEENS IN THE USUAL
COLD INTERIOR LOCALES. GIVEN OUR EARLY START TO THE GROWING
SEASON...FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD WELL BE NEEDED ON BOTH NIGHTS.
WE/LL SEE ENOUGH SUN TO KEEP MAX TEMPS RESPECTABLE THURSDAY...MID
40S TO AROUND 50. RH LEVELS WILL BE PRETTY LOW DESPITE THE COOLISH
TEMPS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS (PERHAPS LOWER) AT PEAK HEATING.
FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WON/T QUITE HAVE ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
BREEZE TO MAKE FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...AND
WILL APPROACH 60F IN SPOTS SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AFTER
A DAY WITH HARDLY ANY WIND FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY BREEZE
SATURDAY COULD ALSO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT...THOUGH FOR NOW
(LIKE THURSDAY) FORECAST WINDS AREN/T QUITE STRONG ENOUGH.
LATER PERIODS...TIMING AGREEMENT REMAINS DECENT ON LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING TOWARD HUDSON BAY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING MI LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS STILL
IN ORDER WAY OUT THEN. DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL SOLUTION OF CHOICE...
MAY HAVE ENOUGH COOL AIR AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW TO PRODUCE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS AMONGST
THE CHILLIEST/MOST MOIST BY MONDAY...IT HAS BEEN KNOWN TO OVERDUE
THESE SORTS OF THINGS FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 811 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
TODAY: ONE-HOUR BATCH OF VFR -RA WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. CLOUDS WILL BE MULTI-LAYERED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SE THRU 17Z /THO AT TIMES VARIABLE DIR/. THEN AN ABRUPT WSHFT TO
WNW-NW WITH AN INCREASE TO 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTINESS TO 16 KTS.
PKWND COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20 KTS BRIEFLY. AFTER WSHFT...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A 1-3 HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS. THEY OVER
CURRENTLY OVER NW WI...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE
IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
TNGT: RAPID CLEARING 23-01Z. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW LEVELS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON
WEDNESDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE AFORMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
MARINE...JA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
745 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
RIDGE OVER THE AREA SINCE LATE IN THE WEEKEND IS BEING FLATTENED
OUT THIS MORNING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES FM MANITOBA INTO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUBTLE OVR UPR LAKES PER 00Z
RAOBS BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA OVR THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDING SOUTH OUT OF LOW OVR
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND ALSO EXTENDING TO THE NORTH FM LOW OVR MID
MISSISSIPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CROSS UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. COOLER
AIRMASS ADVECTS OVR THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE FROPA THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
TODAY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CHALLENGING THIS MORNING...BUT
AFTER THAT DRYING TREND WILL FIRMLY TAKE HOLD. AS OCCURRED 24 HR
AGO...MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO H7
MOIST AXIS AND ALSO IN AREA OF H85 TEMP ADVECTION. INITIAL SHRA/TSRA
HEADING QUICKLY INTO THE FAR EAST CWA FORMED AHEAD OF ONTARIO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND HAVE BEHAVED FOLLOWING STEADY EASTWARD MOTION.
CONVECTION OVR MN AND WESTERN WI IS OUTLINED WELL BY WHERE RUC13
SHOWS MAXIMUM H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ON NORTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM. AT THIS TIME...MAJORITY OF TSRA ARE
OCCURRING OVR CNTRL WI BUT ADDITIONAL SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA ARE
FILLING IN INTO NORTHWEST WI. FOLLOWING RUC IDEA THERE IS ENOUGH H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SCNTRL CWA TO KEEP HIGHER POPS THERE IN THE
MORNING. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY EVEN CLIP AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN THE
CNTRL CWA BUT IT IS FAIRLY LIMITED CHANCE AS THE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
OVR NORTHWEST WI WILL BE OUTRUNNING BETTER H7 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IF THEY CONTINUE ON ENE TRACK. OVERALL
IMAGINE CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE SIGNIFICANTLY OVR
MOST AREAS AFTER MID MORNING /POST 15Z-16Z/ SINCE SFC FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING S/SE OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. HAVE HAD SOME PEA-SIZED HAIL
OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER STORMS AND THAT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST UPSTREAM AND 30-35 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FCST OVR CNTRL PORTIONS OF UPR MI.
AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHWEST. STILL APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIOD
OF LOWER CIGS AND MAYBE SOME FOG AS HIGHER DWPNTS JUST BEHIND FRONT
SETTLE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND WINDS PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE LIFTING OVR
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG
MAY HAVE BEEN ENHANCED DUE TO THE DECENT COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVR
LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT THAT MAY HAVE PROVIDED ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWEST
OF LK SUPERIOR BUT THERE IS ALSO A MUCH LARGER AREA OF VERY DRY
AIR/CLEAR SKIES PUSHING ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
REALLY HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW MUCH/IF ANY FOG IS PRESENT OVR
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FCST FOR LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT DRYING TO WIN OUT PRETTY EASILY AFTER MID AFTN ONCE
BLYR DWPNTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S/MID-UPR 20S AS HIGH BEGINS TO
NOSE INTO LK SUPERIOR REGION. SO SKY FCST SHAKES OUT AS FAIRLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH FAIRLY SHARP CLEARING TREND BY MID
AFTN FM WEST-TO-EAST. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...TEMPS SHOULD
BE HELD DOWN MOST AREAS WITH GRADIENT WIND FLOWING OFF LK SUPERIOR.
PROBABLY WILL SEE STEADY TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND READINGS
PUSHING INTO LOWER 50S FAR INLAND/LK MICHIGAN SHORE WITH LESS LAKE
MODIFICATION GIVEN THE NORTHWEST WINDS. DWPNTS AND RH VALUES COULD
CRASH OVR INTERIOR WEST BY LATE AFTN. CURRENT FCST HAS RH VALUES IN
THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...BUT IF WINDS STAY MORE NW IT COULD GET WARMER
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES BLO 30 PCT.
VERY DRY AIRMASS BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVR AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OFF LK SUPERIOR BUT GIVEN PWATS
FALLING TOWARD 50 PCT OF NORMAL...EXPECT INTERIOR CWA TO TRY TO
DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND COOL OFF TOWARD THE LOWER DWPNTS ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION. BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY...MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE ON FIRE WX WITH LOWER RH VALUES. HAVE DWPNTS IN AFTN MIXING
OUT INTO THE UPR TEENS OVR INTERIOR SECTIONS...RESULTING IN RH
VALUES BLO 30 PCT. WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY GUSTY /LEADING TO LESS
IMPACT ON FIRE WX CUSTOMERS/ BUT A STEADY NORTH WIND UP TO 15 MPH IS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE FLOW...PROBABLY WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME REACHING 40
DEGREES ALONG LK SUPERIOR SHORE. MIXING HEIGHTS MUCH HIGHER TOWARD
WI BORDER /H85-H8 PER FCST SOUNDINGS/ ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO
THE 50S. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE PRETTY TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WHILE THE SFC RIDGE
WILL BE OVERHEAD AT 00Z THURSDAY...THE MAIN HIGH WILL LIKELY RESIDE
OVER HUDSON BAY AND NW ONTARIO. EXPECT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO SLOWLY SIDE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING 25 TO 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR COASTLINE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...LESS THAN 10KTS AWAY FROM ANY LAKE BREEZES THAT MAY
COME IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE CHANGE FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SFC LOW ORGANIZING OVER
EASTERN WY/MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LOOK FOR A SLOW RETURN TO
S/SE WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
INCREASED S/SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS SATURDAY /AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT CROSSING SATURDAY NIGHT/. SPECIFICS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE A
LITTLE TRICKY...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE 500MB RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE 03/00Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A
TRACE OF RAIN FALLING SATURDAY NIGHT AS MUCH OF THE ENERGY REMAINS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS CANADA MAINLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THE
03/00Z RUN OF THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF WELL NEEDED RAIN...WITH STILL THE BEST
CHANCE BEHIND THE LOW. GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR EVEN RAIN...KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TS IN THE FCST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20KTS OUT OF THE W
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS FROM NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
AT 12Z SATURDAY...TO NORTHERN ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY ON SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS IN SIGHT...WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND
0C SUNDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8C MONDAY AFTERNOON ON N-NW
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. DID NOT GO WITH FALLING SFC TEMPS FOR
MONDAY QUITE YET...EVEN THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BET BEHIND THE
LOW...PARTICULARLY IN NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR CAN LINGER OVER THE
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK ACROSS CNTRL UPR MI
THROUGH MID MORNING AFFECTING THE SAW TAF SITE. ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH TAF SITES EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND FOR CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR AT IWD AND
CMX...AND POSSIBLY AT SAW AS WELL THOUGH NW WINDS ARE NOT AS
FAVORABLE. BASED ON SOME OBSERVATIONS SHOWING IFR CIGS IN NORTHERN MN
HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF IFR CIGS AT CMX BY LATE MORNING
WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. STILL NOT SURE IF THERE IS MUCH FOG
OVR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...BUT IF FOG DID FORM THEN THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VSBY REDUCTION /MAYBE INTO THE IFR RANGE/ WITH THE
IFR CIGS. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT THAT IN TAF ATTM...BUT CANNOT
RULE THIS OUT YET. EVENTUALLY...DEEP DRYING WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL
TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING
NEAR THIS LEVEL W AND CENTRAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFF WSW WINDS. IN THE
SHORTER TERM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
MAKE WAY FOR LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW
DEVELOPING OVER MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING WILL
SLIDE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
721 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
.UPDATE...JUST UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING THINGS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ALSO TO DROP PRE-FIRST PERIOD
WORDING IN ZFP PRODUCT. WHAT WAS A NARROW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS A
FEW HOURS AGO LIFTING NORTH OUT OF KS INTO SOUTHERN NEB HAS SINCE
FADED AWAY INTO A BENIGN LINE OF SPRINKLES CENTERED OVER THE
SHERMAN-DAWSON COUNTY AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THIS TO REMAIN
IN THE CWA MUCH LONGER...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND A SPRINKLE
MENTION THROUGH THE DAY TO ALL AREAS THAT DIDNT ALREADY HAVE A
MEASURABLE POP. MAIN FAIRLY MINOR CHANGE FROM ORIGINAL FORECAST
ISSUANCE WAS TO PULL ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION COMPLETELY THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO THAT MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALSO...EXPANDED A MEASURABLE SLIGHT
POP TO MOST OF THE WESTERN CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
HINTS OF A BIT MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED
PER THE 09Z HRRR. OTHERWISE...MAIN THEME OF FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT...IN THAT THE MAIN SHOW RAIN WISE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MADE NO CHANGES TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE
GRID AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
AVIATION...12Z TAF. A NARROW LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A HIT OR
MISS LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST TOWARD
INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PROGRESSION BEGINNING TO
SLOWER WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PCPN IN
KGRI TAF EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTATION IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL HOLD FIRM WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE ENTIRE 24HR TAF DURATION. CIGS ATTM
ARE BORDERLINE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR AND EXPECT MAINLY PREVAILING
MVFR CIGS OVERALL. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EDGE TOWARD
WEST TEXAS THRU TONIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
NORTH TOWARD NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. KGRI WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE RAINFALL TOWARD 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS IS CLEARLY RAINFALL TRENDS/AMOUNTS...AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO GRADUALLY
LUMBERS EASTWARD NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
MID-SOUTH BY THURSDAY. CERTAINLY PARTS OF THE CWA ARE GOING TO SEE
SOME WELL-TIMED BENEFICIAL RAINS IN EXCESS OF 0.75-INCH. ALSO NOT
GOING TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE CWA LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT
STRETCHED NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM A FAIRLY WEAK LOW
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...A
BROAD...ROUGHLY 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO ND. WITH THE CWA POSITIONED WITHIN THE
HEART OF THE MAIN NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...STEADY
NORTH WINDS HAVE PREVAILED ALL NIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
COMMONLY 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT GENERALLY FALLING SHORT
OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST PLACES. RADAR...11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AUTOMATED OBS DEPICT A CORRIDOR OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY STARTING TO
INCREASINGLY AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A BEAVER CITY-BELOIT
LINE. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS...RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT POCKETS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA...MAINLY THE KS
COUNTIES...HAVE LIKELY TALLIED BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCH...ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS PROBABLY LESS. OTHERWISE...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
STRATUS MAINLY IN THE 800-1800 FT RANGE HAS OVERTAKEN THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH JUST A HINT OF LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE AIR HERE AT THE
WFO. UP TOP...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CLEARLY DEPICTS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER...WHILE A
RATHER PRONOUNCED RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
GETTING TO THE FORECAST AND STARTING WITH TODAY...IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS IS PROGRESSION OF NEXT BATCH OF
GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION RIDING UP INTO SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BE
ISSUING A PRE-FIRST PERIOD ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH LIKELY
POPS THROUGH 12Z FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF A BEAVER CITY-
BELOIT LINE. WITH RUC ADVERTISING AT LEAST 500 J/KG MUCAPE IN
THESE AREAS...OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF BUT FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FOLLOWING LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROGS...ALONG WITH
00Z 4KM WRF-NMM....MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE...AND FAIL TO PUSH VERY FAR INTO THE NEB CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST KS ROTATES BACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
MOVING ON TO THE DAYTIME 12Z-00Z TIME FRAME...ASSUMING THAT THE
CURRENT CONVECTION DISSIPATES OR MOVES OUT BY AROUND
SUNRISE...REALLY NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN A BIT OF A
LULL IN BETWEEN PUSHES OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WAITING FOR THE NEXT
PRIMARY CHUNK OF ENERGY TO ROTATE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A RESULT...ACTUALLY HAVE NO
PRECIPITATION MENTIONED WHATSOEVER ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...AND ONLY 20-50 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...WITH EVEN THIS POTENTIALLY BEING TOO
MUCH. EVEN IN AREAS WITH NO EXPECTATION OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP...SUPPOSE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE PAST
SUNRISE...BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK ON
UPDATE IN A FEW HOURS. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES SURVIVE/MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE
WITH CONTINUED MUCAPE AVERAGING GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG...BUT
POSSIBLY COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SMALL HAIL. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPS TODAY...FEEL THAT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING MET/MAV
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS THE WAY TO GO...AS LOW CLOUDS AND STEADY
NORTHERLY BREEZES OF 15-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. MAY
STILL BE TOO WARM IN SPOTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM FOR MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST WESTERN AREAS...AND MAYBE SOME LOW 60S IN THE EAST. IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE HIGHS WOULD BE
VERY NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THIS IS WHEN LEGITIMATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL RAMP UP...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN
SHORT...UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF THE PARENT MID
LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY OVER THE OK
PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE...A CLASSIC...GENERALLY EAST-WEST BAND OF
STEADY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS KS THIS EVENING...AND HAVE POPS PRIOR
TO 06Z RANGING FROM ONLY 20 PERCENT NEAR KGRI...TO 90 PERCENT IN
MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL KS WHERE THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS WILL SET UP.
FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD...THEN HAVE HIGH 70-90 POPS EXPANDING
NORTHWARD OUT OF KS INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN TRENDS OF LATEST 06Z NAM...ALONG WITH 4KM
WRF-NMM...AM STARTING TO WONDER IF NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
VALLEY/NANCE ETC. WILL SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING BEFORE SUNRISE WED
MORNING...AND A TIGHTER POP GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HAVES AND HAVE
NOTS MAY PROVE NECESSARY. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXPECT AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA TO MEASURE BETWEEN
0.25-0.75 INCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN...A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-80. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3
OF THE CWA...BUT EVEN SMALL HAIL SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY.
WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
PARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRAVERSES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE KS/OK BORDER. KEPT A BROAD AREA OF LIKELY POPS GOING CWA-
WIDE THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM/ECWMF CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN 1/4 OR SO OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH
OF HWY 92...COULD STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH...AND POPS IN THESE AREAS
INCLUDING ORD/GREELEY MAY NEED TONED DOWN IN LATER FORECASTS. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/ONGOING PRECIP...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH ONLY LOW-MID 50S MOST
AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST AS THE PARENT LOW PROGRESSES TO NEAR THE OK/AR
BORDER...AND IT MAY VERY WELL END UP THAT MOST OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2...COULD STAY HIGH AND DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL CONTINUE 20-40 POPS
CWA-WIDE.
THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT DRY...RUNNING WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW LIGHT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD
FLIRT WITH PARTS OF THE KS CWA. WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED TO RETURN...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...BUT AM STAYING JUST BELOW THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE BLEND FOR NOW. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
.EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH BOTH
THE NAM/GFS ARE DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEB/KS...BUT FOR
NOW MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS TIME...SUPPOSE SOME
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY AT LEAST INTO THE 1-2 MILE RANGE IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA EACH OF THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS...BUT
WITH PRECIP GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AT LEAST
THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS...NOT LOOKING LIKE AN OBVIOUS SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD...IMPACTFUL FOG.
IN CLOSING...THIS SYSTEM WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A BENEFICIAL
RAINER IN MANY AREAS...HELPING MAKE UP FOR A MARCH PRECIP DEFICIT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH RANGE IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
GRIDS AIMING FOR TOTALS RANGING FROM AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80...BUT ONLY 0.25-0.50 INCH...AND
MAYBE NOT EVEN THAT MUCH...FOR SOME NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AN UPPER
LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SFC TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. AS
SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SETTING UP BY AFTN AND MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTHWARD WITH
DPS RISING DURING THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH MAIN FORCING WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION...MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
THETA E ADVECTION FRIDAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND WILL MAINTAIN OUR
CURRENT LOW POPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY
NIGHT THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...MUCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG...AND COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO.
EASTER WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND SEASONAL OVERALL. A
1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEING THE FRONT AND SETTLES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. SFC DPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO THE
TEENS IN OUR NW WITH 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE DRY AIRMASS.
LOOKING LIKE A MUCH COLDER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY HOWEVER
NOT NECESSARILY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE 30S IN GENERAL AND AGREE
PREVIOUS SHIFTS THAT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO AND TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY REGION. BRUNT OF
COLD AIR REMAINS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...HOWEVER SOME COOLER
AIR DOES BACK INTO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS BEING
SAID...ALTHOUGH HIGHS MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM SUNDAY...TEMPS
OVERALL ARE STILL LOOKING SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
533 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
.AVIATION...12Z TAF. A NARROW LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A HIT OR
MISS LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST TOWARD
INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PROGRESSION BEGINNING TO
SLOWER WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PCPN IN
KGRI TAF EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTATION IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL HOLD FIRM WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE ENTIRE 24HR TAF DURATION. CIGS ATTM
ARE BORDERLINE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR AND EXPECT MAINLY PREVAILING
MVFR CIGS OVERALL. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EDGE TOWARD
WEST TEXAS THRU TONIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
NORTH TOWARD NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. KGRI WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE RAINFALL TOWARD 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS IS CLEARLY RAINFALL TRENDS/AMOUNTS...AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO GRADUALLY
LUMBERS EASTWARD NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
MID-SOUTH BY THURSDAY. CERTAINLY PARTS OF THE CWA ARE GOING TO SEE
SOME WELL-TIMED BENEFICIAL RAINS IN EXCESS OF 0.75-INCH. ALSO NOT
GOING TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE CWA LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT
STRETCHED NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM A FAIRLY WEAK LOW
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...A
BROAD...ROUGHLY 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO ND. WITH THE CWA POSITIONED WITHIN THE
HEART OF THE MAIN NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...STEADY
NORTH WINDS HAVE PREVAILED ALL NIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
COMMONLY 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT GENERALLY FALLING SHORT
OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST PLACES. RADAR...11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AUTOMATED OBS DEPICT A CORRIDOR OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY STARTING TO
INCREASINGLY AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A BEAVER CITY-BELOIT
LINE. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS...RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT POCKETS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA...MAINLY THE KS
COUNTIES...HAVE LIKELY TALLIED BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCH...ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS PROBABLY LESS. OTHERWISE...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
STRATUS MAINLY IN THE 800-1800 FT RANGE HAS OVERTAKEN THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH JUST A HINT OF LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE AIR HERE AT THE
WFO. UP TOP...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CLEARLY DEPICTS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER...WHILE A
RATHER PRONOUNCED RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
GETTING TO THE FORECAST AND STARTING WITH TODAY...IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS IS PROGRESSION OF NEXT BATCH OF
GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION RIDING UP INTO SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BE
ISSUING A PRE-FIRST PERIOD ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH LIKELY
POPS THROUGH 12Z FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF A BEAVER CITY-
BELOIT LINE. WITH RUC ADVERTISING AT LEAST 500 J/KG MUCAPE IN
THESE AREAS...OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF BUT FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FOLLOWING LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROGS...ALONG WITH
00Z 4KM WRF-NMM....MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE...AND FAIL TO PUSH VERY FAR INTO THE NEB CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST KS ROTATES BACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
MOVING ON TO THE DAYTIME 12Z-00Z TIME FRAME...ASSUMING THAT THE
CURRENT CONVECTION DISSIPATES OR MOVES OUT BY AROUND
SUNRISE...REALLY NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN A BIT OF A
LULL IN BETWEEN PUSHES OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WAITING FOR THE NEXT
PRIMARY CHUNK OF ENERGY TO ROTATE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A RESULT...ACTUALLY HAVE NO
PRECIPITATION MENTIONED WHATSOEVER ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...AND ONLY 20-50 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...WITH EVEN THIS POTENTIALLY BEING TOO
MUCH. EVEN IN AREAS WITH NO EXPECTATION OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP...SUPPOSE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE PAST
SUNRISE...BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK ON
UPDATE IN A FEW HOURS. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES SURVIVE/MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE
WITH CONTINUED MUCAPE AVERAGING GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG...BUT
POSSIBLY COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SMALL HAIL. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPS TODAY...FEEL THAT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING MET/MAV
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS THE WAY TO GO...AS LOW CLOUDS AND STEADY
NORTHERLY BREEZES OF 15-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. MAY
STILL BE TOO WARM IN SPOTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM FOR MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST WESTERN AREAS...AND MAYBE SOME LOW 60S IN THE EAST. IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE HIGHS WOULD BE
VERY NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THIS IS WHEN LEGITIMATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL RAMP UP...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN
SHORT...UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF THE PARENT MID
LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY OVER THE OK
PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE...A CLASSIC...GENERALLY EAST-WEST BAND OF
STEADY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS KS THIS EVENING...AND HAVE POPS PRIOR
TO 06Z RANGING FROM ONLY 20 PERCENT NEAR KGRI...TO 90 PERCENT IN
MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL KS WHERE THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS WILL SET UP.
FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD...THEN HAVE HIGH 70-90 POPS EXPANDING
NORTHWARD OUT OF KS INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN TRENDS OF LATEST 06Z NAM...ALONG WITH 4KM
WRF-NMM...AM STARTING TO WONDER IF NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
VALLEY/NANCE ETC. WILL SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING BEFORE SUNRISE WED
MORNING...AND A TIGHTER POP GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HAVES AND HAVE
NOTS MAY PROVE NECESSARY. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXPECT AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA TO MEASURE BETWEEN
0.25-0.75 INCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN...A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-80. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3
OF THE CWA...BUT EVEN SMALL HAIL SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY.
WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
PARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRAVERSES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE KS/OK BORDER. KEPT A BROAD AREA OF LIKELY POPS GOING CWA-
WIDE THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM/ECWMF CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN 1/4 OR SO OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH
OF HWY 92...COULD STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH...AND POPS IN THESE AREAS
INCLUDING ORD/GREELEY MAY NEED TONED DOWN IN LATER FORECASTS. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/ONGOING PRECIP...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH ONLY LOW-MID 50S MOST
AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST AS THE PARENT LOW PROGRESSES TO NEAR THE OK/AR
BORDER...AND IT MAY VERY WELL END UP THAT MOST OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2...COULD STAY HIGH AND DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL CONTINUE 20-40 POPS
CWA-WIDE.
THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT DRY...RUNNING WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW LIGHT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD
FLIRT WITH PARTS OF THE KS CWA. WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED TO RETURN...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...BUT AM STAYING JUST BELOW THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE BLEND FOR NOW. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
..EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH BOTH
THE NAM/GFS ARE DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEB/KS...BUT FOR
NOW MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS TIME...SUPPOSE SOME
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY AT LEAST INTO THE 1-2 MILE RANGE IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA EACH OF THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS...BUT
WITH PRECIP GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AT LEAST
THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS...NOT LOOKING LIKE AN OBVIOUS SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD...IMPACTFUL FOG.
IN CLOSING...THIS SYSTEM WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A BENEFICIAL
RAINER IN MANY AREAS...HELPING MAKE UP FOR A MARCH PRECIP DEFICIT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH RANGE IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
GRIDS AIMING FOR TOTALS RANGING FROM AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80...BUT ONLY 0.25-0.50 INCH...AND
MAYBE NOT EVEN THAT MUCH...FOR SOME NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AN UPPER
LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SFC TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. AS
SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SETTING UP BY AFTN AND MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTHWARD WITH
DPS RISING DURING THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH MAIN FORCING WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION...MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
THETA E ADVECTION FRIDAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND WILL MAINTAIN OUR
CURRENT LOW POPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY
NIGHT THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...MUCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG...AND COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO.
EASTER WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND SEASONAL OVERALL. A
1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEING THE FRONT AND SETTLES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. SFC DPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO THE
TEENS IN OUR NW WITH 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE DRY AIRMASS.
LOOKING LIKE A MUCH COLDER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY HOWEVER
NOT NECESSARILY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE 30S IN GENERAL AND AGREE
PREVIOUS SHIFTS THAT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO AND TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY REGION. BRUNT OF
COLD AIR REMAINS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...HOWEVER SOME COOLER
AIR DOES BACK INTO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS BEING
SAID...ALTHOUGH HIGHS MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM SUNDAY...TEMPS
OVERALL ARE STILL LOOKING SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
AVIATION...06Z TAF. THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE MARKED WITH FAIRLY
WINDY CONDITIONS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 20KTS OR SO AND GUST NEAR 30KTS. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH STILL
BREEZY...WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD UNTIL THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW LIFTS FARTHER NORTH. CLOUD
COVER FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ALTHOUGH
SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
954 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND BORDERING STATES THIS MORNING. 925-850MB RUC RH
PROGS INDICATE EROSION OF THIS DECK SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS
UNTIL EVENING. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE COOLEST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE STILL ANTICIPATED. BRISK
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT REDUCE
BELOW 10 KTS AFTER DARK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT MON APR 3 2012/
A DECK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL STRATUS BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE AREA. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 700MB FRONT...BUT THINK THESE WILL DISSIPATE
BY 12Z. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE ERODING OF THE CLOUD
DECK AND THE ACCOMPANYING IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD ACT TO SLOWLY RISE CEILINGS AND DISSIPATE THE
CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. FOLLOWED A SOLUTION
CLOSE TO HRRR...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.
925MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND 12C THIS AFTERNOON. THUS LOCATIONS
THAT BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD GET INTO THE LOW 60S.
MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS THAT GET STUCK IN THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST IOWA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA ARE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO STAY LOCKED IN. WENT FOR
HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THIS AREA GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...BUT WHERE THE
CLOUDS STAY...MAY NOT REACH 60. THINKING THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF THE CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE MITCHEL TO LAKE
ANDES AREA...THUS RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES THERE. WINDS WILL BE
BLUSTERY TODAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. 900MB WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS WILL
PROMOTE WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WHERE CLOUDS MAY STAY LOCKED IN. HOWEVER NOT
THINKING IT WILL BE A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH A 925MB
JET OF AROUND 30KTS KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS SOMEWHAT MIXED. THUS DID
NOT GO AS COLD AT THE MET GUIDANCE. DID GO ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
RAW GUIDANCE THOUGH...WITH THE COOL EAST NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTING IN
SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
NEXT FORECAST ISSUE IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FURTHER SOUTH TRACK KEEPS
THE BEST FORCING TO OUR SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH
DRIER AIR INTO OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD KEEP
ALL THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS REMOVED
POPS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...ECMWF AND SREF SOLUTIONS. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WERE TRENDED WARMER GIVEN THE DRIER AND MORE SUNNY
FORECAST...GENERALLY GOING WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IS ANOTHER NIGHT WHICH WILL FEATURE A COOL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND. THUS WENT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE RAW GUIDANCE...BUT
NOT AS COLD AS MOS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE RADIATING THINGS TOO MICH.
NEXT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BEST QG FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND ANY INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. SO THINKING ANY
RAIN WE GET FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE LIGHT. GIVEN THIS JUST KEPT POPS
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. GIVEN THE VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY
DECIDED TO REMOVE THE THUNDER WORDING FROM THE GRIDS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ECMWF IS SLOWER
WITH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAN THE GFS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM NICELY ON SUNDAY. ECMWF ENSEMBLE NOT QUITE AS SLOW AND WARM AS
THE OPERATIONAL...BUT STILL WARMER THAN THE GFS...THUS UPPED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. MODELS AGREE THAT THE COLDEST
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVER US ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE GFS DIGS THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH PUSHING IN COLDER AIR
THAN THE ECMWF. ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE BOTH SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEIR OPERATIONAL RUNS AT 850MB. THUS TEND TO THINK THIS
WILL JUST BE A QUICK COLD SHOT WITH RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ONCE AGAIN. CURRENTLY GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
MONDAY...BUT GIVEN WHAT WAS JUST MENTIONED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FUTURE SHIFTS TREND THESE UP A BIT...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
VALUES. EITHER WAY...STILL WILL HAVE A CHILLY ATMOSPHERE OVER US
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. /CHENARD
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EXCEPT IN OUR NW
ZONES WHO ARE CURRENTLY CLEARING OUT. BY MIDDAY...MOST OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BE GONE...EITHER BY MIXING TO A VFR CATEGORY...OR BY
CLEARING OUT ENTIRELY. THEREFORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...OUR
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING A BIT MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. /MJF
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
701 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST TODAY WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION THIS MORNING. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT AFTER 17Z...THEN DIMINISH
BY SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...
POTENT UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE
TEXAS HANDLE TONIGHT. PACIFIC FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF A JUNCTION...
BRADY... ABILENE...HASKELL LINE. IT WAS STILL UNSTABLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH RUC MUCAPES OF 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS
OF 40 KTS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF THE PACIFIC FRONT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER WESTERLY AIR AT
THIS SURFACE WILL WORK EASTWARD BY NOON...ENDING THE SEVERE
THREAT. THERE AS OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER...AS 700 MB MOISTURE
WAS WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY DESERT AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON...ELEVATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN ELEVATE FIRE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE LOW IN NW TEXAS MOVES NE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. COOL AIR
FILTERS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. LATER THIS WEEK...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIFT
OF MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER SO KEPT
POPS AT 20 PERCENT.
FIRE WEATHER.
GUSTY DRY WEST WINDS WILL ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE LOW IN NW TEXAS MOVES INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 79 50 81 49 83 / 20 10 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 82 47 85 49 90 / 20 10 0 0 0
JUNCTION 81 46 87 48 91 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
649 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
.UPDATE...
649 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
HAVE HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP IN THE LAST 45
MINUTES FROM THE DECORAH AREA TO LA CROSSE. THE ONE STORM NEAR
DECORAH ENDED UP PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL. THESE APPEAR TO BE ON AN
850MB FRONT. 03.10Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THIS FRONT ARE
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION...AND WITH MOST MODELS NOT
SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION...ONLY GUESS IS THAT THERE MUST BE A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AROUND 750MB THAN FORECAST. IF YOU MODIFY A
RUC SOUNDING TO SATURATE 750MB AND COOL THE TEMPERATURE
ACCORDINGLY...UP TO 700 J/KG OF CAPE IS AVAILABLE. HARD TO SAY
EXACTLY HOW LONG THE PRECIPITATION WILL LAST...BUT IF THE
ENVIRONMENT THE RUC SUGGESTS IS MOSTLY CORRECT...THEY WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME LASTING MORE THAN A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE...ONLY HAVE
CHANCES IN UNTIL 14Z.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
349 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA...MOVING EAST.
CURRENT RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT.
IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...AS WELL AS THE RIDGE TOPS OF
WESTERN WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOOK FOR COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 14 C ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TO AROUND 4 C OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 0 C ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
TO AROUND 4 C ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. PLAN ON LOWS FALLING INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...DESPITE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CANNOT RULE OUT LOW LYING
AREAS DECOUPLING AND FALLING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH MISSOURI AND REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RATHER DRY AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL LEAD TO DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
THE 20S TO THE UPPER TEENS...WITH VERY DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PLAN ON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN LEAD TO
FROST/FREEZING CONCERNS. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. FREEZE HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FROST
DEVELOPMENT IS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA
AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AT THIS TIME FROST WIDESPREAD FROST
FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING COULD DAMAGE COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS. FAVORED COLD AIR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
COULD ALSO BE AT RISK OF SEEING THESE COLD TEMPERATURES.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BACKING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
850 MB TEMPERATURES REALLY FALL ON THURSDAY...WITH FORECAST MODELS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -4 C OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO
AROUND 2 C OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MID 50S
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
MAXIMUM MIXING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MID
30S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA. FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
349 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
03.00 MODELS SHOWING THE HIGH STARTING TO MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODEL ARE SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES BRINGING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
APPEARS TO BE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WHERE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK.
THE GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DOESNT INDICATE THIS SECONDARY
WAVE...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY ON SATURDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. PLAN ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
649 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALOFT HAS HELPED SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR THE KLSE TAF SITES. ANTICIPATING THESE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT...SO ONLY AN HOUR OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE KLSE TAF SITE. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED NATURE...ONLY PUT VCSH IN THE TAF. LIGHTNING IS EVEN MORE
ISOLATED...SO ONLY THE CB IS IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...MVFR TO VFR
STRATUS HAS FILTERED INTO THE TAF SITES IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO KRST AND VFR AT KLSE. ANTICIPATING THIS STRATUS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 20Z...WITH DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWING
CEILINGS TO RISE. BETWEEN 20-22Z...DRIER AIR HELPING TO CLEAR
SKIES IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MOVE IN AND CLEAR SKIES AT THE
TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY...AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KTS ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHEST AT KRST. LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
WILL ALLOW GUSTS TO DIMINISH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
349 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
536 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
USED THE HRRR MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF OUR CWA AND THAT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MAJORITY OF MODELS WANT
TO DEVELOP AN MCS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI...MOVE IT EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST WHICH MEANS IT MIGHT CLIP THE SOUTHWEST INDIANA AREA. SO
WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
TONIGHT. BLENDED A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS SO THAT IT IS A
SMOOTHER TRANSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SURFACE
FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ACTUALLY WAITING FOR
CONVECTION TO START FIRING OVER THE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION ANYTIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...ESP EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL HELP GENERATE SURFACE BASED
LI VALUES IN THE -4 TO -8 RANGE. IF DEBRIS CLOUDS DO NOT INHIBIT
THIS INSTABILITY FROM FORMING...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT...IF ANY
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...IT WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE-TYPE CLUSTERS IN NATURE...WITH RAPID GROWTH AND DECAY
OF EMBEDDED CELLS.
ONCE THE SFC FRONT AND H50 TROF MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TONIGHT...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RICH MOIST SW
FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THOUGH NO REAL TRIGGER IS INDICATED AT THIS
TIME...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT ABOUT ANY TIME. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE AT LEAST SCT
MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST ALL OF TONIGHT FOR OFF AND ON
SHOWERS/STORMS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL FORCING...SO SEVERE ASPECT WILL
BE LITTLE TO NULL.
LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES FOR WED. CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN INITIALLY SLOW MOVING CLOSED H5 LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO W TN BY 06Z FRI AS SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVES SE
ACROSS MAINLY THE SW PART OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA. ACCORDINGLY
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL GENERALLY BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT EXCEPT IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SE MO
WHERE THE BEST CHANCES MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A SURFACE HIGH PUSHING S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
DRIER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
THE LATEST MODELS AGREE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY DRY DAY WITH SOME
WIND APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. ALSO WITH WINDS
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A REBOUND ON RH
DURING THE DAY LIKE THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. SO WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER ALTHOUGH FUELS MAY BE WET FROM
PRECEDING RAINS. WILL PULL DEW POINTS DOWN FOR FRIDAY AT LEAST IN
THE MIDDLE 30S FOR NOW AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR EVEN DRIER WEATHER.
FORECAST SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST NEAR 30 AND THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST
MID 20S DEW POINTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE HEARTLAND.
BOTH THE 12Z TUE GFS AND 00Z TUE ECMWF ARE IN UNUSUALLY FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER WITH ONLY
SPOTTY QPF...WHILE THE WETTER GFS HAS MORE SOLID COVERAGE AMOUNTS
ARE MEAGER WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ANYWHERE. HOWEVER THEY BOTH
AGREE THE PRECIP WILL BE POST FRONTAL SHOULD ANY OCCUR. SO WILL
LEAVE IN SLGT CHC IN SUNDAY MORNING AND MIGHT HAVE TO TRIM POPS A
BIT PRIOR TO SUNDAY MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT POST FRONTAL PRECIP.
THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING FRONT MONDAY BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT
AT SOME PRECIP. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL GO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OR PERSISTENCE FCST
UNTIL THE REINFORCING FRONT AND THEN WILL ACTUALLY HAVE A SHOT AT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AS THE
SURFACE HEATS UP AND DESTABILIZES LATE TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SCT
TSRA IS AT THE KPAH AND KCGI AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
SPREADING EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...VFR CONDITIONS...AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY
BELOW 10 KTS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM....KH
AVIATION...MEFFERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
338 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEHIND THE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND END THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, A 1009MB LOW IS LOCATED ILLINOIS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO.
THIS EVENING...DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE, INDICATED BY TD DEPRESSIONS
OF 25-30F SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW TREKS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
EVENING.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE WARM FRONT STRADDLES THE AREA. NAM/GFS INDICATE AN AREA OF WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING FOR THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE PITTSBURGH METRO
OVERNIGHT. BY DAWN, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAMP GUIDANCE, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 50S IN NORTH-CENTRAL
WV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF EQUIV POT TEMP AND DEW POINT GRADIENTS INDICATE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING FROM THE MASON-DIXON LINE INTO CENTRAL WV
BY 21Z FRIDAY. BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD, NAM/GFS
INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CHANCE OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL WV. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG
WITH DRIER AND STABLE AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE IS OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES EACH DAY. WITH THE HIGH FUNNELING IN
COLDER, CANADIAN AIR, FREEZES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF
PITTSBURGH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT ECMWF AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. THEN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CENTRAL CANADA AND THE U.S.
THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNWIND INTO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY, WITH A SHOWERY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, EXPECT A LARGER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGE
SATURDAY DUE TO RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ENHANCING RADIATIVE EFFECTS.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT CAN BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL, WHILE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
DUE TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING UNCERTAINTY, FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE. BY TUESDAY,
THE POSTFRONTAL COOL DOWN WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THE WARM FRONTAL COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS FOR KZZV, KHLG AND KMGW,
THROUGH 23Z. ITS POSSIBLE TAF SITES FARTHER NORTH MAY ALSO GET VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS. DESPITE THIS DEVELOPMENT, SURFACE LAYER REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
SEVERAL SREF MODEL OUTPUT MEMBERS SHOW A SECOND COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS, MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, 07Z-15Z, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT.
POST FRONTAL DRYING WILL RESTORE VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VARY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT BECOME NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT VFR DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
226 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
EASTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, INCREASING POPS IN EASTERN
OHIO AND MOVING POPS INTO PORTIONS OF WV AND PA. IN ADDITION,
TEMPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED IN RAIN-COOLED PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO.
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE, A 1009MB LOW IS LOCATED ILLINOIS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN OHIO.
THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO WILL
WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR AND SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF I-77 IN OHIO. OTHERWISE,
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE, INDICATED BY TD DEPRESSIONS OF 25-30F,
SHOULD LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA.
THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
SURFACE LOW TREKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO WARM INTO THE EVENING. FORECAST CONSISTS OF A HRRR/LAMP BLEND,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WV TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE WARM FRONT STRADDLES THE AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY UPSTREAM
IN OHIO WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THERE AND THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM/GFS INDICATE AN AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND ALLOWING FOR THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK, SO BELIEVE THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT THE ISOLATED POSSIBILITY
OF HAIL IN EASTERN OHIO. BY DAWN, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARM THAN LAMP GUIDANCE, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 50S IN NORTH-CENTRAL
WV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE LATE TNGT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WL AMPLIFY FLOW
ALOFT/PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE THUS FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MOST ZONES GIVEN PROGS OF LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT LIKELY NUMBERS WL BE INCLUDED FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I 70 AS THE ADVANCING LOW IMPROVES THE MOISTURE PROFILE
FOR THOSE ZONES.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OHIO FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
OPTED TO MENTION NO MORE THAN A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME AS
MOST SREF MODEL MEMBERS SHOW RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
SHEAR.
AT ANY RATE...THAT LOW WL ALSO PULL THE COLD FRONT SUFFICIENTLY
SOUTHWARD WITH ITS WEDNESDAY PASSAGE TO QUICKLY DRY THE WEATHER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
TROUGH ALOFT/COOL HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE WL RETURN TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NORMAL...WITH FREEZES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS ACROSS THE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT ECMWF AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO DAYTIME SUNDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAM PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH A SOUTHWEST
ORIENTATION. THIS ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL STEER A COLD FRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES, USING BLEND OF GFS AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT,
TO BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A PREFRONTAL WARM UP SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY TO VALUES UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL POSTFRONTAL COOLING, ALTHOUGH THE LATTER WILL BE LIMITED
BY THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THE WARM FRONTAL COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS FOR KZZV, KHLG AND KMGW,
THROUGH 23Z. ITS POSSIBLE TAF SITES FARTHER NORTH MAY ALSO GET VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS. DESPITE THIS DEVELOPMENT, SURFACE LAYER REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
SEVERAL SREF MODEL OUTPUT MEMBERS SHOW A SECOND COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS, MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, 07Z-15Z, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT.
POST FRONTAL DRYING WILL RESTORE VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VARY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT BECOME NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT VFR DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
RIDGE OVER THE AREA SINCE LATE IN THE WEEKEND IS BEING FLATTENED
OUT THIS MORNING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES FM MANITOBA INTO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUBTLE OVR UPR LAKES PER 00Z
RAOBS BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA OVR THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDING SOUTH OUT OF LOW OVR
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND ALSO EXTENDING TO THE NORTH FM LOW OVR MID
MISSISSIPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CROSS UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. COOLER
AIRMASS ADVECTS OVR THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE FROPA THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
TODAY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CHALLENGING THIS MORNING...BUT
AFTER THAT DRYING TREND WILL FIRMLY TAKE HOLD. AS OCCURRED 24 HR
AGO...MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO H7
MOIST AXIS AND ALSO IN AREA OF H85 TEMP ADVECTION. INITIAL SHRA/TSRA
HEADING QUICKLY INTO THE FAR EAST CWA FORMED AHEAD OF ONTARIO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND HAVE BEHAVED FOLLOWING STEADY EASTWARD MOTION.
CONVECTION OVR MN AND WESTERN WI IS OUTLINED WELL BY WHERE RUC13
SHOWS MAXIMUM H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ON NORTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM. AT THIS TIME...MAJORITY OF TSRA ARE
OCCURRING OVR CNTRL WI BUT ADDITIONAL SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA ARE
FILLING IN INTO NORTHWEST WI. FOLLOWING RUC IDEA THERE IS ENOUGH H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SCNTRL CWA TO KEEP HIGHER POPS THERE IN THE
MORNING. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY EVEN CLIP AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN THE
CNTRL CWA BUT IT IS FAIRLY LIMITED CHANCE AS THE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
OVR NORTHWEST WI WILL BE OUTRUNNING BETTER H7 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IF THEY CONTINUE ON ENE TRACK. OVERALL
IMAGINE CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE SIGNIFICANTLY OVR
MOST AREAS AFTER MID MORNING /POST 15Z-16Z/ SINCE SFC FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING S/SE OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. HAVE HAD SOME PEA-SIZED HAIL
OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER STORMS AND THAT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST UPSTREAM AND 30-35 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FCST OVR CNTRL PORTIONS OF UPR MI.
AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHWEST. STILL APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIOD
OF LOWER CIGS AND MAYBE SOME FOG AS HIGHER DWPNTS JUST BEHIND FRONT
SETTLE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND WINDS PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE LIFTING OVR
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG
MAY HAVE BEEN ENHANCED DUE TO THE DECENT COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVR
LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT THAT MAY HAVE PROVIDED ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING. LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWEST
OF LK SUPERIOR BUT THERE IS ALSO A MUCH LARGER AREA OF VERY DRY
AIR/CLEAR SKIES PUSHING ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
REALLY HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW MUCH/IF ANY FOG IS PRESENT OVR
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FCST FOR LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT DRYING TO WIN OUT PRETTY EASILY AFTER MID AFTN ONCE
BLYR DWPNTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S/MID-UPR 20S AS HIGH BEGINS TO
NOSE INTO LK SUPERIOR REGION. SO SKY FCST SHAKES OUT AS FAIRLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH FAIRLY SHARP CLEARING TREND BY MID
AFTN FM WEST-TO-EAST. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...TEMPS SHOULD
BE HELD DOWN MOST AREAS WITH GRADIENT WIND FLOWING OFF LK SUPERIOR.
PROBABLY WILL SEE STEADY TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND READINGS
PUSHING INTO LOWER 50S FAR INLAND/LK MICHIGAN SHORE WITH LESS LAKE
MODIFICATION GIVEN THE NORTHWEST WINDS. DWPNTS AND RH VALUES COULD
CRASH OVR INTERIOR WEST BY LATE AFTN. CURRENT FCST HAS RH VALUES IN
THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...BUT IF WINDS STAY MORE NW IT COULD GET WARMER
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES BLO 30 PCT.
VERY DRY AIRMASS BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVR AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OFF LK SUPERIOR BUT GIVEN PWATS
FALLING TOWARD 50 PCT OF NORMAL...EXPECT INTERIOR CWA TO TRY TO
DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND COOL OFF TOWARD THE LOWER DWPNTS ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION. BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY...MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE ON FIRE WX WITH LOWER RH VALUES. HAVE DWPNTS IN AFTN MIXING
OUT INTO THE UPR TEENS OVR INTERIOR SECTIONS...RESULTING IN RH
VALUES BLO 30 PCT. WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY GUSTY /LEADING TO LESS
IMPACT ON FIRE WX CUSTOMERS/ BUT A STEADY NORTH WIND UP TO 15 MPH IS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE FLOW...PROBABLY WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME REACHING 40
DEGREES ALONG LK SUPERIOR SHORE. MIXING HEIGHTS MUCH HIGHER TOWARD
WI BORDER /H85-H8 PER FCST SOUNDINGS/ ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO
THE 50S. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE PRETTY TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WHILE THE SFC RIDGE
WILL BE OVERHEAD AT 00Z THURSDAY...THE MAIN HIGH WILL LIKELY RESIDE
OVER HUDSON BAY AND NW ONTARIO. EXPECT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO SLOWLY SIDE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING 25 TO 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR COASTLINE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...LESS THAN 10KTS AWAY FROM ANY LAKE BREEZES THAT MAY
COME IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE CHANGE FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SFC LOW ORGANIZING OVER
EASTERN WY/MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LOOK FOR A SLOW RETURN TO
S/SE WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
INCREASED S/SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS SATURDAY /AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT CROSSING SATURDAY NIGHT/. SPECIFICS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE A
LITTLE TRICKY...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE 500MB RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE 03/00Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A
TRACE OF RAIN FALLING SATURDAY NIGHT AS MUCH OF THE ENERGY REMAINS
WRAPPED UP ACROSS CANADA MAINLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THE
03/00Z RUN OF THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF WELL NEEDED RAIN...WITH STILL THE BEST
CHANCE BEHIND THE LOW. GIVEN THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR EVEN RAIN...KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TS IN THE FCST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20KTS OUT OF THE W
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS FROM NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
AT 12Z SATURDAY...TO NORTHERN ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY ON SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS IN SIGHT...WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND
0C SUNDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8C MONDAY AFTERNOON ON N-NW
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. DID NOT GO WITH FALLING SFC TEMPS FOR
MONDAY QUITE YET...EVEN THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BET BEHIND THE
LOW...PARTICULARLY IN NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR CAN LINGER OVER THE
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HOVERING JUST EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY
EXIT EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRY AIR OBSERVED ON
INTERNATIONAL FALLS SOUNDING IS STEADILY EATING AWAY AT THE MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK. CLOUD COVER IS LINGERING OVER THE WEST...AT
KCMX AND KIWD ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND SOME LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS OPPOSED TO THE BKN TO OVC SKIES THE SITES
HAVE SEEN ALL MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE BKN DECK AT
KIWD DISSIPATED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN INDICATED IN THE TAFS...AND
WILL AMEND ACCORDINGLY. WEBCAMS NEAR BESSEMER SHOW THE CLOUD
COVERAGE BECOMING SCT IN NATURE...BUT HOUGHTON CAMERAS STILL SHOW A
MORE SOLID DECK. OVERNIGHT EXPECT SKIES TO BE CLEAR...REMAINING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW. DAYTIME CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE AT KCMX
AND KSAW WITH HEATING AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERALL...THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS VFR FOR ALL THREE SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GETTING
NEAR THIS LEVEL W AND CENTRAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFF WSW WINDS. IN THE
SHORTER TERM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
MAKE WAY FOR LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW
DEVELOPING OVER MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING WILL
SLIDE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MCB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
101 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
THE CLOUDY DAY CONTINUES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...BUT THE CLEARING
LINE IS SET TO ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN 4-6PM...MOST
ALL OF EASTERN UPPER WILL HAVE BEEN CLEARED OUT...AND THEN 6PM TO
9PM FOR NRN LOWER. THIS CLEARING IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS FROM
WNW-ESE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DIURNAL STRATO CU BEHIND IT...BUT BY
THE TIME IT GETS HERE...SLOW LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OUGHT TO
LIMIT THAT HERE. TEMPERATURES NOT TO DO MUCH THROUGH THE DAY DUE
TO CLOUDS AND SLIGHT COOL ADVECTION...STILL ON TRACK FOR A SLOW
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1036 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
SHARPENING SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO ONTARIO CONTINUES TO FLATTEN
THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...AS LOW LEVEL TROUGHING TRACKS TOWARD
EASTERN UPPER. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH CONNECTS
BACK TO A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS SHIFTING ACROSS
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. SFC-H8 WARM FRONT WELL SOUTH OF US ALONG
WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. REMOVED
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...DECAYING AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS ARENAC/GLADWIN COUNTIES. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR. WE WILL THEN BE
AWAITING UPSTREAM TROUGHING TO BRING IN SMALL CHANCE/PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. CHANCES LIKELY SMALLER THAN THAT...AS
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WANES...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF IT WILL ALREADY BE TURNING AROUND OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS. RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR RETURNS TO EASTERN UPPER IN THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN NRN LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE WITH THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE HIGHS IN EASTERN UPPER DUE TO A BIT MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 811 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
INITIAL BATCH OF SHWRS EXITED INTO LAKE HURON BY 6 AM. THE ENHANCED
STRATIFORM AREA OF -RA WAS OVER LAKE MI AND WILL MOVE INTO NW
LOWER MI IN THE NEXT HOUR. SINCE MCS WAS OVER CENTRAL WI AT TIME
OF 313 AM FCST ISSUANCE...UNCERTAINTY HAS DIMINISHED ON ITS
ARRIVAL. SO POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100% AND HAVE TIMED THIS THRU
NRN LOWER PENINSULA. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...THE BACK EDGE SHOULD
BE OFFSHORE INTO LAKE HURON NO LATER THAN 2 PM.
THUNDER: THE BEST ARC OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS S OF M-55. BUT
THE M-55 CORRIDOR HAS THE "BEST" CHC FOR THUNDER. WE SEE THE NEW
SHWRS GOING UP OVER MANISTEE/WEXFORD COUNTIES. THAT OFFERS BETTER
POTENTIAL THAN THE STRATIFORM AREA. A TENTH OF LIQUID WAS MEASURED
AT STURGEON WI...ON THE W COAST OF LAKE MI IN THE PAST HOUR. SO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS WILL FALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
QUITE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGHS ANCHORED ALONG BOTH COASTS
OF NOAM WITH A REX BLOCK-LIKE FEATURE STUCK BETWEEN
THESE...KEEPING THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT INTERESTING OVER WHAT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE LARGE-SCALE RIDGING.
THE FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM AND THROUGH TODAY IS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MADE THE MOST
OF VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY...CONTINUOUSLY FIRING ALONG THE H85
MOISTURE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. THROUGH
DAYBREAK...I EXPECT AREAS FROM M-32 NORTH TO SEE SOME SHRA ACTIVITY
/WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES/...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWN NEAR
MANISTEE.
THINGS GET TRICKIER AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE IMPACTS
OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN NOT SO
CERTAIN. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL PUSH EAST
AND THEN SOUTHEAST...OVER THE TOP OF THE H5 RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST ARRIVAL NEAR MY SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 12Z. THE HRRR IS ON
BOARD WITH THIS...AS IS OUR PREVIOUS GRIDDED FORECAST AND WILL
CONTINUE EARLY MORNING LIKELY POPS BASICALLY SOUTH OF M-72 AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE 75. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO
DIE AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH LITTLE TO HANG YOUR HAT ON FOR FORCING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH
INCREASES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SOME EXTENT. STILL...WITH MOIST
PLUME OVERHEAD...AND CVA FROM WAVE NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN
ONTARIO...EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE H85
COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IS PRETTY LOW IN HOW THIS EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT IS WHY
I/LL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WON/T
MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS GIVEN CLOUD COVER. REALLY LIKED INHERITED
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S /WITH A FEW MID 50S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS/ AND
WILL CONTINUE THEM IN THIS PACKAGE. THIS IS TOWARDS THE COOLER END
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
TONIGHT...DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION AS INVERTED TROUGH SCOOTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. WITH WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN
COUPLED...I DON/T EXPECT LOWS TO FALL ALL THAT FAR...WITH FAIRLY
HOMOGENEOUS VALUES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30 EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW VEERING NORTHERLY
DURING THE DAY UNDER CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. GIVEN VERY DRY
ARRIVING AIRMASS...EXPECT A SUNNY/MSUNNY DAY WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE
TO ENSURE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE DON/T MIX
QUITE AS HIGH AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...AND UNDER COLD
ADVECTION FEEL TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A LITTLE. THEREFORE...WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE /MET/ WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S OVER EASTERN UPPER...TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
NORTHERN LOWER. GIVEN THE FLOW TRAJECTORIES AND SUBSIDENT
FLOW...EXPECT A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TUMBLING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MINIMUM RH/S
INTO THE 20S. WITH GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WORDING IN THE MORNING HWO...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW RED FLAG LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ONLY VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL STILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE PAC NW UPPER TROF EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION...BUT LIKELY NOT
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BEFORE THEN...THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WED NIGHT-SAT...A REASONABLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE-STARVED...AND
WILL BRING NO MORE THAN SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...PRIMARILY TO EASTERN
UPPER AND NE LOWER MI. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA...HELPING TO MAINTAIN 850MB TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8C
RANGE BY THU MORNING. WARM ADVECTION (ON N TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW) AND
AIRMASS MODIFICATION BEGIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BUT WE WILL STILL SEE
SOMEWHAT COOLISH TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. EXPECT
MINS MAINLY IN THE 20S...AND COULD DEFINITELY SEE TEENS IN THE USUAL
COLD INTERIOR LOCALES. GIVEN OUR EARLY START TO THE GROWING
SEASON...FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD WELL BE NEEDED ON BOTH NIGHTS.
WE/LL SEE ENOUGH SUN TO KEEP MAX TEMPS RESPECTABLE THURSDAY...MID
40S TO AROUND 50. RH LEVELS WILL BE PRETTY LOW DESPITE THE COOLISH
TEMPS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS (PERHAPS LOWER) AT PEAK HEATING.
FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WON/T QUITE HAVE ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
BREEZE TO MAKE FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...AND
WILL APPROACH 60F IN SPOTS SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AFTER
A DAY WITH HARDLY ANY WIND FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY BREEZE
SATURDAY COULD ALSO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT...THOUGH FOR NOW
(LIKE THURSDAY) FORECAST WINDS AREN/T QUITE STRONG ENOUGH.
LATER PERIODS...TIMING AGREEMENT REMAINS DECENT ON LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING TOWARD HUDSON BAY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING MI LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS STILL
IN ORDER WAY OUT THEN. DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL SOLUTION OF CHOICE...
MAY HAVE ENOUGH COOL AIR AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW TO PRODUCE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS AMONGST
THE CHILLIEST/MOST MOIST BY MONDAY...IT HAS BEEN KNOWN TO OVERDUE
THESE SORTS OF THINGS FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
VFR OVC CIGS THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE AFTERNOON. TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO DROP INTO NRN MICHIGAN WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. THE
CLEARING LINE IS WORKING IT`S WAY TOWARD EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...SET TO MAKE AN ARRIVAL AT PLN AROUND 23Z...WITH THE
OTHER AIRPORTS 1-2 HOURS AFTER. STRONG LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL LEAD
TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NIGHT. NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY SHALLOW
CLOUDS OFF THE LAKE...PLUS WAY TOO DRY. MAYBE A TOUCH OF SHALLOW
CU TOMORROW...BUT DOUBT IT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VERY VERY
MARGINAL LLWS FOR TONIGHT...AS THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A 3-5KT
WIND WITH 20-25KTS ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND LOW LEVEL TROUGHING WORKING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN...WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KTS...STRONGEST ACROSS WHITEFISH
BAY AND PRESQUE ISLE. NEAR NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR JUST OFF
THE WATER SURFACE WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FOR THE
ISSUANCE OF THOSE ADVISORIES AT WHITEFISH AND PRESQUE ISLE THROUGH
TOMORROW. MAYBE A COUPLE MORE NEEDED. WINDS DO VEER AROUND TO OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY LIGHTEN UP A SLIGHT
BIT...BUT ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...NS
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...SD
MARINE...SD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1229 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAF. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD
LIES WITH WINDS/CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. MAIN DRIVER REMAINS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE ERN CO/NM
BORDER...WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION.
EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
LOWER VISIBILITIES COMING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE. KEPT THE 09Z START TIME FOR
SHOWERS...THOUGH IT MAY VARY A BIT...JUST DEPENDS ON THE MODEL.
OBVIOUSLY WILL GET A BETTER FEEL FOR TRENDS ONCE PRECIPITATION
STARTS MOVING INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW REMAINING
OFF TO THE S/SW...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N/NERLY THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT GUSTY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS IS CLEARLY RAINFALL TRENDS/AMOUNTS...AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO GRADUALLY
LUMBERS EASTWARD NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
MID-SOUTH BY THURSDAY. CERTAINLY PARTS OF THE CWA ARE GOING TO SEE
SOME WELL-TIMED BENEFICIAL RAINS IN EXCESS OF 0.75-INCH. ALSO NOT
GOING TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE CWA LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT
STRETCHED NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM A FAIRLY WEAK LOW
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...A
BROAD...ROUGHLY 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO ND. WITH THE CWA POSITIONED WITHIN THE
HEART OF THE MAIN NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...STEADY
NORTH WINDS HAVE PREVAILED ALL NIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
COMMONLY 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT GENERALLY FALLING SHORT
OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST PLACES. RADAR...11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AUTOMATED OBS DEPICT A CORRIDOR OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY STARTING TO
INCREASINGLY AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A BEAVER CITY-BELOIT
LINE. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS...RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT POCKETS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA...MAINLY THE KS
COUNTIES...HAVE LIKELY TALLIED BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCH...ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS PROBABLY LESS. OTHERWISE...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
STRATUS MAINLY IN THE 800-1800 FT RANGE HAS OVERTAKEN THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH JUST A HINT OF LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE AIR HERE AT THE
WFO. UP TOP...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CLEARLY DEPICTS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER...WHILE A
RATHER PRONOUNCED RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
GETTING TO THE FORECAST AND STARTING WITH TODAY...IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS IS PROGRESSION OF NEXT BATCH OF
GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION RIDING UP INTO SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BE
ISSUING A PRE-FIRST PERIOD ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH LIKELY
POPS THROUGH 12Z FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF A BEAVER CITY-
BELOIT LINE. WITH RUC ADVERTISING AT LEAST 500 J/KG MUCAPE IN
THESE AREAS...OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF BUT FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FOLLOWING LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROGS...ALONG WITH
00Z 4KM WRF-NMM....MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE...AND FAIL TO PUSH VERY FAR INTO THE NEB CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST KS ROTATES BACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
MOVING ON TO THE DAYTIME 12Z-00Z TIME FRAME...ASSUMING THAT THE
CURRENT CONVECTION DISSIPATES OR MOVES OUT BY AROUND
SUNRISE...REALLY NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN A BIT OF A
LULL IN BETWEEN PUSHES OF MID/UPPER FORCING...WAITING FOR THE NEXT
PRIMARY CHUNK OF ENERGY TO ROTATE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A RESULT...ACTUALLY HAVE NO
PRECIPITATION MENTIONED WHATSOEVER ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...AND ONLY 20-50 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES...WITH EVEN THIS POTENTIALLY BEING TOO
MUCH. EVEN IN AREAS WITH NO EXPECTATION OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP...SUPPOSE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE PAST
SUNRISE...BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK ON
UPDATE IN A FEW HOURS. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES SURVIVE/MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE
WITH CONTINUED MUCAPE AVERAGING GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG...BUT
POSSIBLY COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SMALL HAIL. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPS TODAY...FEEL THAT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING MET/MAV
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS THE WAY TO GO...AS LOW CLOUDS AND STEADY
NORTHERLY BREEZES OF 15-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. MAY
STILL BE TOO WARM IN SPOTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM FOR MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST WESTERN AREAS...AND MAYBE SOME LOW 60S IN THE EAST. IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE HIGHS WOULD BE
VERY NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THIS IS WHEN LEGITIMATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL RAMP UP...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN
SHORT...UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF THE PARENT MID
LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY OVER THE OK
PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE...A CLASSIC...GENERALLY EAST-WEST BAND OF
STEADY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS KS THIS EVENING...AND HAVE POPS PRIOR
TO 06Z RANGING FROM ONLY 20 PERCENT NEAR KGRI...TO 90 PERCENT IN
MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL KS WHERE THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS WILL SET UP.
FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD...THEN HAVE HIGH 70-90 POPS EXPANDING
NORTHWARD OUT OF KS INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-80. GIVEN TRENDS OF LATEST 06Z NAM...ALONG WITH 4KM
WRF-NMM...AM STARTING TO WONDER IF NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
VALLEY/NANCE ETC. WILL SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING BEFORE SUNRISE WED
MORNING...AND A TIGHTER POP GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HAVES AND HAVE
NOTS MAY PROVE NECESSARY. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXPECT AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA TO MEASURE BETWEEN
0.25-0.75 INCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN...A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-80. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3
OF THE CWA...BUT EVEN SMALL HAIL SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY.
WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
PARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRAVERSES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE KS/OK BORDER. KEPT A BROAD AREA OF LIKELY POPS GOING CWA-
WIDE THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM/ECWMF CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN 1/4 OR SO OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH
OF HWY 92...COULD STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH...AND POPS IN THESE AREAS
INCLUDING ORD/GREELEY MAY NEED TONED DOWN IN LATER FORECASTS. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/ONGOING PRECIP...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH ONLY LOW-MID 50S MOST
AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST AS THE PARENT LOW PROGRESSES TO NEAR THE OK/AR
BORDER...AND IT MAY VERY WELL END UP THAT MOST OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2...COULD STAY HIGH AND DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL CONTINUE 20-40 POPS
CWA-WIDE.
THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT DRY...RUNNING WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW LIGHT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD
FLIRT WITH PARTS OF THE KS CWA. WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED TO RETURN...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...BUT AM STAYING JUST BELOW THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE BLEND FOR NOW. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH BOTH
THE NAM/GFS ARE DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEB/KS...BUT FOR
NOW MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS TIME...SUPPOSE SOME
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY AT LEAST INTO THE 1-2 MILE RANGE IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA EACH OF THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS...BUT
WITH PRECIP GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AT LEAST
THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS...NOT LOOKING LIKE AN OBVIOUS SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD...IMPACTFUL FOG.
IN CLOSING...THIS SYSTEM WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A BENEFICIAL
RAINER IN MANY AREAS...HELPING MAKE UP FOR A MARCH PRECIP DEFICIT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH RANGE IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
GRIDS AIMING FOR TOTALS RANGING FROM AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80...BUT ONLY 0.25-0.50 INCH...AND
MAYBE NOT EVEN THAT MUCH...FOR SOME NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AN UPPER
LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SFC TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. AS
SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SETTING UP BY AFTN AND MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTHWARD WITH
DPS RISING DURING THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH MAIN FORCING WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION...MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
THETA E ADVECTION FRIDAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND WILL MAINTAIN OUR
CURRENT LOW POPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY
NIGHT THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...MUCAPES NEARING 1000 J/KG...AND COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO.
EASTER WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND SEASONAL OVERALL. A
1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEING THE FRONT AND SETTLES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. SFC DPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO THE
TEENS IN OUR NW WITH 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE DRY AIRMASS.
LOOKING LIKE A MUCH COLDER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY HOWEVER
NOT NECESSARILY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE 30S IN GENERAL AND AGREE
PREVIOUS SHIFTS THAT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO AND TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY REGION. BRUNT OF
COLD AIR REMAINS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...HOWEVER SOME COOLER
AIR DOES BACK INTO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS BEING
SAID...ALTHOUGH HIGHS MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM SUNDAY...TEMPS
OVERALL ARE STILL LOOKING SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...ADO
SHORT...PFANNKUCH
LONG...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
635 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT
AND MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE ENE OF THE
LOW...TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE BENEATH
700 MB...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO LARGELY REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...RADAR DOES SHOW SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
FROM PORT HURON TO LONDON...WITH WHATEVER DOES HOLD TOGETHER WITH
THIS LIKELY TO CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR IS LATE...BUT APPEARS TO CAPTURE THIS
EVENTUALLY...WITH THE GFS/RGEM/NAM HINTING AT THIS IN THE RH
FIELDS MORE SO THAN THE QPF. BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
SHOWERS...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE TRIMMING THINGS BACK TO THE NORTH.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN TUESDAY MORNINGS SUB-
FREEZING READINGS. UPPER 30S FOR WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES
AND LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
NW-SE LATE TONIGHT.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW. 850MB TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND -3C
WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS
WESTERN NY DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MORE CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND 850MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -4C/-5C WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME BREEZY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC HIGH AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. NORTHWEST GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY DURING THIS PERIOD AS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE OF A WEAKLY ESTABLISHED REX BLOCK. THIS
LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL BE TOPPED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND NORTHWARDS
PAST HUDSON BAY. WHILE THE UNDERLYING CUT OFF IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE RIDGE WILL BE MUCH SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD...
WHILE AN EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION PRECIPITATION FREE. ALL IN ALL...A PRETTY `VANILLA` PERIOD.
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AS THIS BUNDLE OF ENERGY CROSSES THE
NORTH COUNTRY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
PRESENT TO POSSIBLY GENERATE A COUPLE WIDELY SEPARATED RAIN OR WET
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL USE LOW CHC POPS TO COVER THIS MINIMAL
POSSIBILITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PCPN
FREE...BUT WITH ANOTHER FROST OR FREEZE. H85 TEMPS OF -8C WILL HELP
TO PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EASE SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR FORECAST AREA
WITH PARTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKIES...ALTHOUGH WITH H85 TEMPS STILL COLDER
THAN -4C AND SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SITES AWAY
FROM THE LAKES MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF BROKEN STRATO-CU CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY AS WELL WITH MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH NORMAL EARLY APRIL VALUES.
AS THE LARGE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SO THAT VERY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE AWAY FROM THE
LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE
LAKE SHORES TO 20 TO 25 IN THE SRN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A H5 RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE CORE OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO BE
ABOUT LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR FORECAST AREA WITH NEARLY
CLOUD FREE SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THAT WILL INCLUDE
ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SITES WELL
AWAY FROM THE LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL
GIVE WAY TO CHILLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS TROUGHINESS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS OF SASKATCHEWAN WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE ITS WAY INTO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. AS A
RESULT... TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY TREND DOWNWARDS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL MERCURY READINGS BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY
TUESDAY. THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD...BY FAR...AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SUN FILLED SKIES
WILL BOOST SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE GENESEE VALLEY.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC BASED
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A 3
HOUR WINDOW OF SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH
DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY FEEDING INTO THE
TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM TO DIG ITS WAY ACROSS LOWER
ONTARIO. FALLING HGTS AND COLD ADVECTION FROM THIS PROCESS COULD
SUPPORT SOME MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF
NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL KEEP COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY UNDER SCT CLOUD
COVER. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT
WITH SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST BUT REMAINING VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS OTHER THAN KJHW.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUDS RETURNING IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLE TO 20 OR 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT THEN
SETTLE OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NO IMPACT TO
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LAKES. A MODEST NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL SET UP ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS NY. THE
RESULTING WINDS AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ALONG THE EAST AND SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE MONTHLY CLM CLIMATE SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE
NARRATIVE SECTION AT THE BOTTOM. THEY ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE
UNDER THE CLIMATE SECTION. HERE ARE SOME TIDBITS BELOW...
MARCH 2012 IS A MONTH FOR THE RECORD BOOKS AS AN UNSEASONABLE AND
PERSISTENT WARM PATTERN REMAINED ACROSS THE EASTERN US. FOR BUFFALO
MARCH FINISHED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 47.4 DEGREES WHICH IS
+13.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND 2.9 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS WARMEST MARCH. THIS 2.9 DEGREES IS THE LARGEST SEPARATION
BETWEEN WARMEST...AND 2ND WARMEST FOR ANY MONTH IN BUFFALO...WITH
THE NOW SECOND LARGEST SEPARATION 2.6 DEGREES FOR THE TWO WARMEST
MONTHS OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR ROCHESTER MARCH FINISHED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 47.3
DEGREES WHICH IS +13.0 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND 3.5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS WARMEST MARCH. THIS 3.5 DEGREES IS THE LARGEST
SEPARATION BETWEEN WARMEST...AND 2ND WARMEST FOR ANY MONTH IN
ROCHESTER WITH THE NOW SECOND LARGEST SEPARATION 3.1 DEGREES FOR THE
TWO WARMEST MONTHS OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR BOTH CITIES MARCH FINISHED WARMER THAN THE NORMAL APRIL. THE
47.4 DEGREES AVERAGE MARCH 2012 TEMPERATURE IN BUFFALO WAS 1.5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NORMAL APRIL VALUE. FOR ROCHESTER THE 47.3
DEGREES AVERAGE MARCH 2012 TEMPERATURE WAS 1.0 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE NORMAL APRIL VALUE.
BUFFALO ESTABLISHED SEVEN NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MARCH
2012...WHILE ROCHESTER ESTABLISHED THREE NEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOTH CITIES SET 5 NEW RECORD WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SMITH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL/SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT/
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND BORDERING STATES THIS MORNING. 925-850MB RUC RH
PROGS INDICATE EROSION OF THIS DECK SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS
UNTIL EVENING. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE COOLEST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE STILL ANTICIPATED. BRISK
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT REDUCE
BELOW 10 KTS AFTER DARK.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CIGS HAVE IMPROVED INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AT THE TAF SITES. OTHER
THAN FLEETING SCT CLOUDS CIRCA 2K FEET NEAR KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING WINDS TO SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD KSUX AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION ATTENDANT WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT/
A DECK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL STRATUS BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE AREA. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 700MB FRONT...BUT THINK THESE WILL
DISSIPATE BY 12Z. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE ERODING OF
THE CLOUD DECK AND THE ACCOMPANYING IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD ACT TO SLOWLY RISE CEILINGS AND DISSIPATE
THE CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. FOLLOWED A
SOLUTION CLOSE TO HRRR...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE
ON THINGS. 925MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND 12C THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
LOCATIONS THAT BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD GET INTO THE
LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS THAT GET STUCK IN THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST IOWA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA ARE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO STAY LOCKED IN. WENT
FOR HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THIS AREA GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...BUT WHERE THE
CLOUDS STAY...MAY NOT REACH 60. THINKING THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF THE CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE MITCHEL TO
LAKE ANDES AREA...THUS RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES THERE. WINDS
WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. 900MB WINDS OF 20 TO
25KTS WILL PROMOTE WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WHERE CLOUDS MAY STAY LOCKED IN. HOWEVER NOT
THINKING IT WILL BE A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH A 925MB
JET OF AROUND 30KTS KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS SOMEWHAT MIXED. THUS DID
NOT GO AS COLD AT THE MET GUIDANCE. DID GO ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
RAW GUIDANCE THOUGH...WITH THE COOL EAST NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTING IN
SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
NEXT FORECAST ISSUE IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FURTHER SOUTH TRACK KEEPS
THE BEST FORCING TO OUR SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH
DRIER AIR INTO OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD KEEP
ALL THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS REMOVED
POPS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...ECMWF AND SREF SOLUTIONS. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WERE TRENDED WARMER GIVEN THE DRIER AND MORE SUNNY
FORECAST...GENERALLY GOING WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IS ANOTHER NIGHT WHICH WILL FEATURE A COOL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND. THUS WENT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE RAW GUIDANCE...BUT
NOT AS COLD AS MOS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE RADIATING THINGS TOO MICH.
NEXT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BEST QG FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND ANY INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. SO THINKING ANY
RAIN WE GET FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE LIGHT. GIVEN THIS JUST KEPT POPS
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. GIVEN THE VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY
DECIDED TO REMOVE THE THUNDER WORDING FROM THE GRIDS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ECMWF IS SLOWER
WITH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAN THE GFS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM NICELY ON SUNDAY. ECMWF ENSEMBLE NOT QUITE AS SLOW AND WARM AS
THE OPERATIONAL...BUT STILL WARMER THAN THE GFS...THUS UPPED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. MODELS AGREE THAT THE COLDEST
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVER US ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE GFS DIGS THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH PUSHING IN COLDER AIR
THAN THE ECMWF. ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE BOTH SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEIR OPERATIONAL RUNS AT 850MB. THUS TEND TO THINK THIS
WILL JUST BE A QUICK COLD SHOT WITH RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ONCE AGAIN. CURRENTLY GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
MONDAY...BUT GIVEN WHAT WAS JUST MENTIONED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FUTURE SHIFTS TREND THESE UP A BIT...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
VALUES. EITHER WAY...STILL WILL HAVE A CHILLY ATMOSPHERE OVER US
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. /CHENARD
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1235 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES...RESULTING IN SOME HIGH BASED CU THIS
AFTERNOON GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-10 KFT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND 00Z PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS AT
KABI/KSJT/KSOA AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER AT KBBD/KJCT. HOWEVER...WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS WELL. A SECONDARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME LOW/MID LEVEL
CIGS DEVELOP IN THE BIG COUNTRY BUT I EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN NORTH
OF KABI AT THIS TIME.
EQUIPMENT NOTE...KBBD CEILOMETER IS CURRENTLY NOT WORKING. THE
APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN ADVISED BUT NO RETURN TO SERVICE
TIME IS KNOWN. THUS...NO SKY BASED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MADE UNTIL THE EQUIPMENT IS REPAIRED.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
UPDATE...
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...STRETCHING FROM NEAR MILLERS CREEK RESERVOIR...TO
CROSS PLAINS...TO RICHLAND SPRINGS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG/EAST OF THIS FRONT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PACIFIC FRONT NUDGES THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
FOR THE CWA WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTING OVER EAST TX. POPS
WERE TRIMMED TO ONLY INCLUDE THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. TO THE
WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN GENERALLY INTO THE
20S AND 30S WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...COMBINING
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 8-15 PERCENT TO CREATE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SHOULD NOT
BE MET AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS THREAT IN THE FWF AND HWO. A
FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SWEETWATER TO HASKELL IN THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE ASCENT TIED TO THE UPPER JET
STREAK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 50 DEGREES AS
OF 11 AM AND VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF
THIS PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
I REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND CLEANED UP
DEWPOINTS/WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST PERIOD. TEMPS
LOOKED GOOD SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST TODAY WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION THIS MORNING. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT AFTER 17Z...THEN DIMINISH
BY SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...
POTENT UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE
TEXAS HANDLE TONIGHT. PACIFIC FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF A JUNCTION...
BRADY... ABILENE...HASKELL LINE. IT WAS STILL UNSTABLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH RUC MUCAPES OF 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS
OF 40 KTS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF THE PACIFIC FRONT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DRIER WESTERLY AIR AT
THIS SURFACE WILL WORK EASTWARD BY NOON...ENDING THE SEVERE
THREAT. THERE AS OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER...AS 700 MB MOISTURE
WAS WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY DESERT AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON...ELEVATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN ELEVATE FIRE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE LOW IN NW TEXAS MOVES NE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. COOL AIR
FILTERS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. LATER THIS WEEK...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIFT
OF MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER SO KEPT
POPS AT 20 PERCENT.
FIRE WEATHER.
GUSTY DRY WEST WINDS WILL ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE LOW IN NW TEXAS MOVES INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 50 81 49 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 47 85 49 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 46 87 48 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1141 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
.UPDATE...
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED IN SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CAUSED SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEAKENED AND SHIFTED INTO
NORTHEAST IL. THE LINE OF MID CLOUDS...ACCAS...STRETCHING THROUGH
SAUK...DODGE...FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES IS DUE TO WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB FRONT. RUC SNDGS FOR OSHKOSH SHOW
ELEVATED CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WITH A LARGE AREA OF THAT IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. THE INSTABILITY DOES NOT TRANSLATE DOWN TO MADISON BUT
IT IS BETTER IN MKE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE RUC. THE
NAM STILL SHOWS SOME LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE FOR MSN AND MKE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE 850MB WARM FRONT GETS SOUTH OF WI.
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO
POP A THUNDERSTORM AND IT SHOULD BE AROUND THIS 850MB CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...EXITING SOUTHEAST WI AROUND 00Z.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN WI...WHICH SEEMS TIED
TO MAINLY 700MB DEFORMATION...TO SLIP SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THIS TRANSLATION MAY NOT
EXACTLY BE LINEAR AND THE STRATUS MAY NEVER REACH FAR SOUTHEAST WI
BY 00Z AS THE 700MB DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SHORT
OF THE WI/IL BORDER. AT SOME POINT BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXPECTING SE WI TO FILL IN WITH SOME STRATUS. THE NAM
SHOWS STRATUS EXITING AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...BUT THIS MAY BE TOO
QUICK.
WITH THE SFC WINDS ALREADY CHANGED OVER TO NORTH IN THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME WARMING DUE TO THE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS DOWN A
NOTCH...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH COLD ADVECTION
STRATUS TO REMAIN IN THE 3500-4000 FT RANGE. THE STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY NOT GET TO
SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
VERY ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT
SINKS SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP OUT OF
TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER MSP EARLIER IN REGION OF
STRONG LAYER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON NOSE OF S-SW 30-45 KT 850 MB
WINDS IMPINGING ON BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL WI.
FORCING WEAKENS AS THESE WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE
BEST CROSS-ISOTHERM FLOW SHIFTING EAST OF STATE BY 12Z. THIS SHIFT
NOTED WITH LATEST DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...IN
LINE WITH RUC AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING...BUT COULD NOT
DROP COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON AS COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ELEVATED CAPE WITH BOUNDARY...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB SO WILL ONLY MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER.
HIGHS TO BE REACHED LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DROP WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. 925MB TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WITH MID
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST.
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE MID 30S NORTH...AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH BY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTH...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL MEANDER SOUTHEAST TO MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND
EXITING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A VERY DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. NO PRECIP CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES.
THOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...MODELS ARE INDICATING A PUSH OF
COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP CHILLY
AIR COMING IN OFF THE LAKE. EVEN SO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL...EVEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. MAY SEE SOME FROST WITH
LOWS TEMPS MORE TOWARD NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THU NIGHT WHEN THE
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS SHOWING A PAIR OF WAVES TO SLIDE THROUGH SAT/SAT NIGHT AND
SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KEEP SOME POPS GOING. LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
MAY EVEN PUSH THE MILDER TEMPS TO THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IF STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING...REDUCING PROSPECTS OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION
TODAY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT PLAN IS TO
LEAVE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF 12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH COLD ADVECTION STRATUS TO REMAIN IN THE
3500-4000 FT RANGE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO
25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
MARINE...
HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES
REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA WITH WINDS EASING A BIT TONIGHT. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WAVES BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. WAVES WILL
REMAIN HIGH INTO THURSDAY...THEN LOWER WITH SHORTER FETCH AS WINDS
VEER TO THE EAST AND EASE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV