Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/28/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
612 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND SHIFT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING
UPDATE.
EXPECT A CLEAR AND TRANQUIL EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND NE WINDS WILL SURGE
PERHAPS RESULTING IN SOME UNEVEN TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THE FRONT
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT MOSTLY CLEAR FORECASTS ARE REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW OF THE COOLEST INLAND LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S BRIEFLY AROUND DAYBREAK. AT THE COAST...TEMPERATURES
COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60F THIS EVENING...THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY RISE A FEW DEGREES AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPS LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN NOTICEABLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DESCENDING FRONT WILL CREATE A DECENT
NORTH/SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
BE SUPPRESSED AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA...WHILE RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RESULTING WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SUPPORTING
MORE SEASONAL LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DESCEND
SOUTHWARD AND SLIP OFF THE COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE WARMER FLOW AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PULLING A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING A DECENT TAP
INTO DEEPER MOISTURE. RAIN POTENTIAL THUS APPEARS QUITE LIMITED ON
THURSDAY AND PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT. SINCE THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITHIN SOME PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES.
AFTER A WARM-UP MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AGAIN BY A
FEW DEGREES.
RIGHT NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. AN AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT COMES ASHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID WEEK WILL WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND APPROACH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TIMING AND DETAILS
ARE TOO TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...BUT WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCHS/KSAV.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE FACTOR.
&&
.MARINE...
INCOMING RUC DATA SUGGESTS THE FRONT AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SURGE
WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE START TIMES OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THESE ZONES
GIVEN THESE TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE TONIGHT
PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH NOON ON
TUESDAY...WHILE MAINTAINING ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A BETTER FETCH OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY-LEVEL SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT
WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DESCENDS TOWARD
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO
RISE ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
516 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
325 AM...WEAK UPPER WAVE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
AND SOUTHWEST WI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW TS. MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THIS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
IL LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT PERHAPS
MANY AREAS ONLY SEEING A TRACE...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. DESPITE
THE LOW PRECIP CHANCES...APPEARS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AS TEMPS ARE NOW
FALLING THROUGH THE 40S WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY INTO THE UPPER
30S. STILL EXPECT SOME SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BUT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT TRICKY. OVERALL ONLY TWEAKED THEM LOWER A
DEGREE OR TWO BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE COOLER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
FLOW TURNS BACK SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. BUT
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL. COULD SEE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS
THIS EVENING AND DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMES...
COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE
LOWS COULD BE IN THE MID 30S. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY
HEADLINES THIS MORNING AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE CLOSELY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOISTURE POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A TONGUE OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE THE MID/UPPER 50S. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE PARTIALLY LIMITED BY STRONG FORCING FROM THIS AREA NORTH
AND BEST INSTABILITY FROM THIS AREA SOUTH...WE/LL BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE. BEST TIMING APPEARS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING.
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
COOLER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS ENDS PRECIP A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF SATURDAY BUT OVERALL BOTH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. CMS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
516 AM MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY START IN THE 20S
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE 40S AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE 50S LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BUT BEFORE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS TEMPS RISE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY DROP INTO
THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-55.
WINDS THEN SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW DEEP THE LOW LEVELS
WILL MIX ON WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPER THE MIXING...THE STRONGER THE
WINDS/GUSTS AND THE GREATER THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DRIER AIR ALOFT
TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY HAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S. IF THESE TEMPS MATERIALIZE...COMBINED WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS AND DRIER AIR...THEN CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH LOCAL
RED FLAG CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 10Z...
* CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT
* NE WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING
* PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING
SHEA
//DISCUSSION...10Z...
THE MAIN LOW END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM ALL OF
THE TERMINALS...BUT SOME STRATOCU HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHERE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WORKING SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND WHILE IT WILL LIKELY
BE A NARROW CORRIDOR THAT IS IMPACTED...IT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
ORD. OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR
IF/WHEN PRECIP OCCURS. RADAR/TIME EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE SHOWERS
INTO RFD BY 10Z AND ACROSS ORD/MDW BY 12-13Z. THE ONE BIG POSITIVE
FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS
INTRUDING. WHILE RADAR RETURNS WILL LOOK IMPRESSIVE...MUCH WILL
FALL AS VIRGA TO START AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND FROM VFR
BASES. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BLEED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SHOULD SHUT OFF CHANCES FOR ORD/MDW/DPA/GYY EARLY...BUT RFD MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER.
SHEA
//PREVIOUS 06Z DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING STRATUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND AND WEST OF THE
EASTERN TERMINALS AS OF 06Z...AND THE TREND OF CIGS RAISING AND
OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING...WILL CONTINUE. 11-3.9UM SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH WITH REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...WITH THE BULK OF THE LAKE STRATUS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE
MKE TO RAC CORRIDOR. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE UGN/PWK AND MAYBE ORD TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO...BUT RAISE HEIGHTS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE COMPASS...GOING FROM NE
TO E AND EVENTUALLY SE-SSE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE DOWN TREND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL HOLD OUT ON
THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS GUSTS THROUGH THE 18Z HOUR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TRICKIEST FOR RFD THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
BRINGING SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF LSE...SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS RFD INTO THE 12Z HOUR. RAW EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO 11Z...BUT ONE THING THE MODELS MAY BE STRUGGLING
WITH IS HOW DRY THE AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACTUALLY IS.
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LAST BEFORE FALLING
APART...AND WILL ADD A PERIOD OF VCSH FROM 11 TO 15Z DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS FALLING WITH RESPECT TO
ORD AND MDW...IF THEY WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE 03Z HRRR IS
REALLY INCREASING THE SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS
NECESSARY.
SHEA
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 10Z...
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST
* MODERATE TO LOW WITH ORD/MDW STAYING DRY THIS MORNING
SHEA
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
* TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FROM MID
AFTN INTO THE EVE. LLWS POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
* WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT.
* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
SHEA
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO COME RACING DOWN THE LAKE THIS
MORNING. WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS TO SEE GALE FORCE
GUSTS. THOSE HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FLOW WILL
THEN ORIENT ITSELF TO MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT..AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW 30 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
LAKE...WITH GOOD MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY PEAKING
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. IT IS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH...BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH
DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIANA SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH THAT
THEY WILL REACH FULL GALE CRITERIA AS OPPOSED TO THE ILLINOIS
SHORES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL THEN CROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SHEA
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4
AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
458 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
325 AM...WEAK UPPER WAVE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
AND SOUTHWEST WI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW TS. MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THIS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
IL LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT PERHAPS
MANY AREAS ONLY SEEING A TRACE...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. DESPITE
THE LOW PRECIP CHANCES...APPEARS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AS TEMPS ARE NOW
FALLING THROUGH THE 40S WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY INTO THE UPPER
30S. STILL EXPECT SOME SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BUT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT TRICKY. OVERALL ONLY TWEAKED THEM LOWER A
DEGREE OR TWO BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE COOLER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
FLOW TURNS BACK SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. BUT
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL. COULD SEE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS
THIS EVENING AND DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMES...
COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE
LOWS COULD BE IN THE MID 30S. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY
HEADLINES THIS MORNING AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE CLOSELY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOISTURE POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A TONGUE OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE THE MID/UPPER 50S. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE PARTIALLY LIMITED BY STRONG FORCING FROM THIS AREA NORTH
AND BEST INSTABILITY FROM THIS AREA SOUTH...WE/LL BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE. BEST TIMING APPEARS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING.
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
COOLER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS ENDS PRECIP A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF SATURDAY BUT OVERALL BOTH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. CMS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
255 PM CDT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEDNESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER. STRONG WEST WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...BUT
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 10Z...
* CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT
* NE WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING
* PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING
SHEA
//DISCUSSION...10Z...
THE MAIN LOW END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM ALL OF
THE TERMINALS...BUT SOME STRATOCU HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHERE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WORKING SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND WHILE IT WILL LIKELY
BE A NARROW CORRIDOR THAT IS IMPACTED...IT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
ORD. OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR
IF/WHEN PRECIP OCCURS. RADAR/TIME EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE SHOWERS
INTO RFD BY 10Z AND ACROSS ORD/MDW BY 12-13Z. THE ONE BIG POSITIVE
FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS
INTRUDING. WHILE RADAR RETURNS WILL LOOK IMPRESSIVE...MUCH WILL
FALL AS VIRGA TO START AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND FROM VFR
BASES. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BLEED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SHOULD SHUT OFF CHANCES FOR ORD/MDW/DPA/GYY EARLY...BUT RFD MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER.
SHEA
//PREVIOUS 06Z DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING STRATUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND AND WEST OF THE
EASTERN TERMINALS AS OF 06Z...AND THE TREND OF CIGS RAISING AND
OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING...WILL CONTINUE. 11-3.9UM SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH WITH REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...WITH THE BULK OF THE LAKE STRATUS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE
MKE TO RAC CORRIDOR. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE UGN/PWK AND MAYBE ORD TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO...BUT RAISE HEIGHTS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE COMPASS...GOING FROM NE
TO E AND EVENTUALLY SE-SSE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE DOWN TREND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL HOLD OUT ON
THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS GUSTS THROUGH THE 18Z HOUR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TRICKIEST FOR RFD THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
BRINGING SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF LSE...SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS RFD INTO THE 12Z HOUR. RAW EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO 11Z...BUT ONE THING THE MODELS MAY BE STRUGGLING
WITH IS HOW DRY THE AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACTUALLY IS.
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LAST BEFORE FALLING
APART...AND WILL ADD A PERIOD OF VCSH FROM 11 TO 15Z DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS FALLING WITH RESPECT TO
ORD AND MDW...IF THEY WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE 03Z HRRR IS
REALLY INCREASING THE SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS
NECESSARY.
SHEA
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 10Z...
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST
* MODERATE TO LOW WITH ORD/MDW STAYING DRY THIS MORNING
SHEA
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
* TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FROM MID
AFTN INTO THE EVE. LLWS POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
* WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT.
* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
SHEA
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO COME RACING DOWN THE LAKE THIS
MORNING. WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS TO SEE GALE FORCE
GUSTS. THOSE HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FLOW WILL
THEN ORIENT ITSELF TO MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT..AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW 30 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
LAKE...WITH GOOD MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY PEAKING
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. IT IS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH...BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH
DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIANA SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH THAT
THEY WILL REACH FULL GALE CRITERIA AS OPPOSED TO THE ILLINOIS
SHORES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL THEN CROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SHEA
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4
AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
410 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
325 AM...WEAK UPPER WAVE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
AND SOUTHWEST WI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW TS. MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THIS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
IL LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT PERHAPS
MANY AREAS ONLY SEEING A TRACE...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. DESPITE
THE LOW PRECIP CHANCES...APPEARS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AS TEMPS ARE NOW
FALLING THROUGH THE 40S WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY INTO THE UPPER
30S. STILL EXPECT SOME SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BUT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT TRICKY. OVERALL ONLY TWEAKED THEM LOWER A
DEGREE OR TWO BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE COOLER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
FLOW TURNS BACK SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. BUT
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL. COULD SEE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS
THIS EVENING AND DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMES...
COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE
LOWS COULD BE IN THE MID 30S. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY
HEADLINES THIS MORNING AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE CLOSELY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOISTURE POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A TONGUE OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE THE MID/UPPER 50S. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE PARTIALLY LIMITED BY STRONG FORCING FROM THIS AREA NORTH
AND BEST INSTABILITY FROM THIS AREA SOUTH...WE/LL BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE. BEST TIMING APPEARS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING.
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
COOLER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS ENDS PRECIP A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF SATURDAY BUT OVERALL BOTH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. CMS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
255 PM CDT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEDNESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER. STRONG WEST WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...BUT
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT
* NE WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING
* PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING OUT WEST
SHEA
//DISCUSSION...09Z...
THE MAIN LOW END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM ALL OF
THE TERMINALS...BUT SOME STRATOCU HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHERE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WORKING SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND WHILE IT WILL LIKELY
BE A NARROW CORRIDOR THAT IS IMPACTED...IT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
ORD. OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR
IF/WHEN PRECIP OCCURS.
SHEA
//PREVIOUS 06Z DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING STRATUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND AND WEST OF THE
EASTERN TERMINALS AS OF 06Z...AND THE TREND OF CIGS RAISING AND
OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING...WILL CONTINUE. 11-3.9UM SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH WITH REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...WITH THE BULK OF THE LAKE STRATUS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE
MKE TO RAC CORRIDOR. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE UGN/PWK AND MAYBE ORD TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO...BUT RAISE HEIGHTS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE COMPASS...GOING FROM NE
TO E AND EVENTUALLY SE-SSE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE DOWN TREND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL HOLD OUT ON
THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS GUSTS THROUGH THE 18Z HOUR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TRICKIEST FOR RFD THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
BRINGING SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF LSE...SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS RFD INTO THE 12Z HOUR. RAW EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO 11Z...BUT ONE THING THE MODELS MAY BE STRUGGLING
WITH IS HOW DRY THE AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACTUALLY IS.
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LAST BEFORE FALLING
APART...AND WILL ADD A PERIOD OF VCSH FROM 11 TO 15Z DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAT ORD/MDW
WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE 03Z HRRR IS REALLY INCREASING THE
SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHEA
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON BASES FALLING BELOW 015 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST
* MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH ORD/MDW STAYING DRY THIS
MORNING
SHEA
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
* TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FROM MID
AFTN INTO THE EVE. LLWS POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
* WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT.
* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
SHEA
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO COME RACING DOWN THE LAKE THIS
MORNING. WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS TO SEE GALE FORCE
GUSTS. THOSE HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FLOW WILL
THEN ORIENT ITSELF TO MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT..AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW 30 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
LAKE...WITH GOOD MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY PEAKING
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. IT IS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH...BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH
DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIANA SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH THAT
THEY WILL REACH FULL GALE CRITERIA AS OPPOSED TO THE ILLINOIS
SHORES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL THEN CROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SHEA
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4
AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
325 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
325 AM...WEAK UPPER WAVE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
AND SOUTHWEST WI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW TS. MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THIS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
IL LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT PERHAPS
MANY AREAS ONLY SEEING A TRACE...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. DESPITE
THE LOW PRECIP CHANCES...APPEARS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AS TEMPS ARE NOW
FALLING THROUGH THE 40S WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY INTO THE UPPER
30S. STILL EXPECT SOME SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BUT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT TRICKY. OVERALL ONLY TWEAKED THEM LOWER A
DEGREE OR TWO BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE COOLER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
FLOW TURNS BACK SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. BUT
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL. COULD SEE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS
THIS EVENING AND DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMES...
COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE
LOWS COULD BE IN THE MID 30S. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY
HEADLINES THIS MORNING AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE CLOSELY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOISTURE POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A TONGUE OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE THE MID/UPPER 50S. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE PARTIALLY LIMITED BY STRONG FORCING FROM THIS AREA NORTH
AND BEST INSTABILITY FROM THIS AREA SOUTH...WE/LL BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE. BEST TIMING APPEARS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING.
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
COOLER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS ENDS PRECIP A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF SATURDAY BUT OVERALL BOTH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. CMS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
255 PM CDT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEDNESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER. STRONG WEST WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...BUT
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT
* NE WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING
* PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING
SHEA
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
EARLY EVENING STRATUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND AND WEST OF THE
EASTERN TERMINALS AS OF 06Z...AND THE TREND OF CIGS RAISING AND
OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING...WILL CONTINUE. 11-3.9UM SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH WITH REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...WITH THE BULK OF THE LAKE STRATUS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE
MKE TO RAC CORRIDOR. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE UGN/PWK AND MAYBE ORD TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO...BUT RAISE HEIGHTS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE COMPASS...GOING FROM NE
TO E AND EVENTUALLY SE-SSE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE DOWN TREND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL HOLD OUT ON
THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS GUSTS THROUGH THE 18Z HOUR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TRICKIEST FOR RFD THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
BRINGING SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF LSE...SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS RFD INTO THE 12Z HOUR. RAW EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO 11Z...BUT ONE THING THE MODELS MAY BE STRUGGLING
WITH IS HOW DRY THE AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACTUALLY IS.
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LAST BEFORE FALLING
APART...AND WILL ADD A PERIOD OF VCSH FROM 11 TO 15Z DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAT ORD/MDW
WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE 03Z HRRR IS REALLY INCREASING THE
SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHEA
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON BASES FALLING BELOW 015 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH ORD/MDW STAYING DRY THIS MORNING
SHEA
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
* TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FROM MID
AFTN INTO THE EVE. LLWS POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
* WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT.
* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
SHEA
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO COME RACING DOWN THE LAKE THIS
MORNING. WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS TO SEE GALE FORCE
GUSTS. THOSE HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FLOW WILL
THEN ORIENT ITSELF TO MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT..AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW 30 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
LAKE...WITH GOOD MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY PEAKING
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. IT IS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH...BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH
DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIANA SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH THAT
THEY WILL REACH FULL GALE CRITERIA AS OPPOSED TO THE ILLINOIS
SHORES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL THEN CROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SHEA
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4
AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY INCLUDE TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ANOTHER REMARKABLY MILD DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING NEAR THE LAKE WHERE MORE ESTABLISHED LAKE BREEZE HAS
KNOCKED TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH EVEN SOME VERY LOW
STRATUS/DENSE FOG RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE. FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
SKY COVER WILL BE TRICKY THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE LAKE. SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CREST THE RIDGE AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE. IN FACT...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD
EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. LAKE EFFECT STRATUS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING
IN ALOFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT
INSTABILITY STRATOCUMULUS LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE MONDAY BUT SURFACE HIGH ISN`T QUITE AS
PROGRESSIVE RESULTING IN A CHILLY NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE LAKE. IN
FACT...WITH THE WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND THE CLOUD COVER TEMPS MAY BE
HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WEEKS. ONE
POSSIBLE SAVING GRACE KEEPING IT FROM BEING EVEN COLDER TOMORROW IS
THE FACT LAKE TEMPS ARE APPROACHING 50F NOW...SO EVEN WITH A LONG
FETCH NORTHEAST WIND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE HELD IN THE 40S.
WINDS SHOULD VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
BY TUESDAY WITH WARMER AIR EVENTUALLY SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA.
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
PLUS THE COOL START TO THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS PROBABLY
HOLDING IN THE 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TRACK EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN
DOES NT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED FROM THE
STRONGER/DEEPER ASCENT THAT OCCURS FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACK. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH
OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS FRONTAL TIMING IS LESS THAN IDEAL AND
MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH MARGINAL TO DECENT AT BEST. HAVE
MAINTAINED JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITH STRONG
MIXING AND OFFSHORE FLOW PLUS COLDER AIR LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AS WARM IF NOT A BIT A WARMER OF A DAY
THAN TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP
CLOSER TO IN LINE WITH WRF-NAM 2M TEMPS...BUT EVEN GOING FORECAST
COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE STILL GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND FULL
SUNSHINE.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE.
DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH VARYING IDEAS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS
WELL AS TIMING/INTENSITY OF VARIOUS WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW.
GENERALLY DOES APPEAR THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO BOUTS OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WITH TIMING NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT HAVE
JUST BLANKETED SEVERAL PERIODS WITH SOME LOW ENDS POPS HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH AT THIS DISTANCE IT CERTAINLY IS NOT LOOKING
LIKE A WASH OUT.
IZZI
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
255 PM CDT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEDNESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER. STRONG WEST WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...BUT
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT
* NE WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING
* PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING
SHEA
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
EARLY EVENING STRATUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND AND WEST OF THE
EASTERN TERMINALS AS OF 06Z...AND THE TREND OF CIGS RAISING AND
OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING...WILL CONTINUE. 11-3.9UM SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH WITH REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...WITH THE BULK OF THE LAKE STRATUS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE
MKE TO RAC CORRIDOR. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE UGN/PWK AND MAYBE ORD TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO...BUT RAISE HEIGHTS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE COMPASS...GOING FROM NE
TO E AND EVENTUALLY SE-SSE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE DOWN TREND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL HOLD OUT ON
THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS GUSTS THROUGH THE 18Z HOUR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TRICKIEST FOR RFD THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
BRINGING SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF LSE...SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS RFD INTO THE 12Z HOUR. RAW EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO 11Z...BUT ONE THING THE MODELS MAY BE STRUGGLING
WITH IS HOW DRY THE AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACTUALLY IS.
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LAST BEFORE FALLING
APART...AND WILL ADD A PERIOD OF VCSH FROM 11 TO 15Z DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAT ORD/MDW
WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE 03Z HRRR IS REALLY INCREASING THE
SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHEA
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON BASES FALLING BELOW 015 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH ORD/MDW STAYING DRY THIS MORNING
SHEA
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
* TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FROM MID
AFTN INTO THE EVE. LLWS POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
* WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT.
* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
SHEA
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO COME RACING DOWN THE LAKE THIS
MORNING. WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS TO SEE GALE FORCE
GUSTS. THOSE HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FLOW WILL
THEN ORIENT ITSELF TO MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT..AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW 30 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
LAKE...WITH GOOD MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY PEAKING
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. IT IS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH...BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH
DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIANA SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH THAT
THEY WILL REACH FULL GALE CRITERIA AS OPPOSED TO THE ILLINOIS
SHORES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL THEN CROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SHEA
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4
AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
254 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND AN E/NE FETCH OVER THE COLD
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74 WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50S. FURTHER SOUTH...HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING.
AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD...FRONT WILL GET
PUSHED BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
SOARING WELL INTO THE 70S. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...FLATTENING THE PREVAILING RIDGE AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES REACHING THE
-4 TO -6C RANGE. DESPITE GOOD INSTABILITY...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
WILL BE MINIMAL AND BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
N/NW. AS A RESULT...AM ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-55 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE BOARD TUESDAY NIGHT.
FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE
KILX CWA DURING THE MORNING. DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE...PACIFIC
ORIGIN AIRMASS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTER A WARM/DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
COUNTRY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...CAUSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. WITH A BOUNDARY IN PLACE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FLOWING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF...AND A SHORT-WAVE TO PROVIDE
LIFT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD BET FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...WAVE WILL PASS TO THE EAST AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN IL AND IS NEARING PIA/BMI. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST RUC DO
SUPPORT CLOUD STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AT ABOUT 5K FT FOR ALL TAF
SITES...WITH A PERIOD OF 1K-2K FT CLOUDS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME
FOR ONLY PIA/BMI. ALTHOUGH THE SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MVFR CLOUDS IN
THE SPI-DEC-CMI CORRIDOR... WILL GIVE THEM A SCT LAYER AT 2K FT.
BROKEN VFR STRATOCU WILL THEN DOMINATE ALL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z...THEN SOME BREAKUP MAY OCCUR SPI-DEC-CMI. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST 14-18 KT AND HOLD UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
04
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
108 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY INCLUDE TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ANOTHER REMARKABLY MILD DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING NEAR THE LAKE WHERE MORE ESTABLISHED LAKE BREEZE HAS
KNOCKED TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH EVEN SOME VERY LOW
STRATUS/DENSE FOG RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE. FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
SKY COVER WILL BE TRICKY THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE LAKE. SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CREST THE RIDGE AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE. IN FACT...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD
EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. LAKE EFFECT STRATUS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING
IN ALOFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT
INSTABILITY STRATOCUMULUS LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE MONDAY BUT SURFACE HIGH ISN`T QUITE AS
PROGRESSIVE RESULTING IN A CHILLY NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE LAKE. IN
FACT...WITH THE WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND THE CLOUD COVER TEMPS MAY BE
HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WEEKS. ONE
POSSIBLE SAVING GRACE KEEPING IT FROM BEING EVEN COLDER TOMORROW IS
THE FACT LAKE TEMPS ARE APPROACHING 50F NOW...SO EVEN WITH A LONG
FETCH NORTHEAST WIND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE HELD IN THE 40S.
WINDS SHOULD VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
BY TUESDAY WITH WARMER AIR EVENTUALLY SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA.
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
PLUS THE COOL START TO THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS PROBABLY
HOLDING IN THE 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TRACK EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN
DOESNT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED FROM THE
STRONGER/DEEPER ASCENT THAT OCCURS FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACK. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH
OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS FRONTAL TIMING IS LESS THAN IDEAL AND
MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH MARGINAL TO DECENT AT BEST. HAVE
MAINTAINED JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITH STRONG
MIXING AND OFFSHORE FLOW PLUS COLDER AIR LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AS WARM IF NOT A BIT A WARMER OF A DAY
THAN TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP
CLOSER TO IN LINE WITH WRF-NAM 2M TEMPS...BUT EVEN GOING FORECAST
COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE STILL GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND FULL
SUNSHINE.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE.
DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH VARYING IDEAS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS
WELL AS TIMING/INTENSITY OF VARIOUS WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW.
GENERALLY DOES APPEAR THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO BOUTS OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WITH TIMING NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT HAVE
JUST BLANKETED SEVERAL PERIODS WITH SOME LOW ENDS POPS HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH AT THIS DISTANCE IT CERTAINLY IS NOT LOOKING
LIKE A WASH OUT.
IZZI
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
255 PM CDT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEDNESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER. STRONG WEST WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...BUT
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT
* NE WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING
* PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING
SHEA
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
EARLY EVENING STRATUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND AND WEST OF THE
EASTERN TERMINALS AS OF 06Z...AND THE TREND OF CIGS RAISING AND
OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING...WILL CONTINUE. 11-3.9UM SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH WITH REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...WITH THE BULK OF THE LAKE STRATUS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE
MKE TO RAC CORRIDOR. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE UGN/PWK AND MAYBE ORD TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO...BUT RAISE HEIGHTS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE COMPASS...GOING FROM NE
TO E AND EVENTUALLY SE-SSE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE DOWN TREND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL HOLD OUT ON
THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS GUSTS THROUGH THE 18Z HOUR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TRICKIEST FOR RFD THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
BRINGING SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF LSE...SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS RFD INTO THE 12Z HOUR. RAW EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO 11Z...BUT ONE THING THE MODELS MAY BE STRUGGLING
WITH IS HOW DRY THE AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACTUALLY IS.
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LAST BEFORE FALLING
APART...AND WILL ADD A PERIOD OF VCSH FROM 11 TO 15Z DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAT ORD/MDW
WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE 03Z HRRR IS REALLY INCREASING THE
SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHEA
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON BASES FALLING BELOW 015 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH ORD/MDW STAYING DRY THIS MORNING
SHEA
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
* TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FROM MID
AFTN INTO THE EVE. LLWS POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
* WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT.
* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
SHEA
&&
.MARINE...
247 PM CDT
DENSE FOG AND GALE POTENTIAL TUESDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INTO EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE ACROSS EASTER
QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WILL MERGE TO THE
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY THEN DEEPEN. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
IS MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MERGING
LOWS AND THE HIGH WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING
LEADING TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT.
EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BY MID/LATE EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LAKE. SPEEDS WILL EASE OFF MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE
LAKE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR WINDS AND WAVES...THOUGH WINDS
SHOULD EASE MONDAY...WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT WHICH WILL SUPPORT UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LAKE. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS RAMP UP MIXING WILL
BRING HIGHER SPEEDS TO THE LAKE SURFACE AND AM CONTINUING TO SEE
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR 35-40 KT GALES FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE TRICKY PART WILL BE ACCOUNTING FOR
INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT DEVELOPING AN INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT
MIXING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DECREASING GUSTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT SO SPEEDS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT PROBABLY BELOW GALE AS
THIS OCCURS. THE DIRECTIONS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL. WILL HOIST A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT IN
EFFECT AND LESSER CONFIDENCE IN GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE IL/IN
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS FREE OF HEADLINES FOR NOW
BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO AT LEAST EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST...THEN NORTHWEST THEN
NORTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
TO THE EAST.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 830 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR CENTRAL IL TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ENTERING
NORTHERN IL WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE
AREA BY SUNRISE. ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING TO THE
NORTH OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH LIES
STATIONARY ACROSS NEB. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND
DO NOT EXPECT THE NEED FOR CHANGES THEREIN.
04
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN IL AND IS NEARING PIA/BMI. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST RUC DO
SUPPORT CLOUD STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AT ABOUT 5K FT FOR ALL TAF
SITES...WITH A PERIOD OF 1K-2K FT CLOUDS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME
FOR ONLY PIA/BMI. ALTHOUGH THE SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MVFR CLOUDS IN
THE SPI-DEC-CMI CORRIDOR... WILL GIVE THEM A SCT LAYER AT 2K FT.
BROKEN VFR STRATOCU WILL THEN DOMINATE ALL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z...THEN SOME BREAKUP MAY OCCUR SPI-DEC-CMI. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST 14-18 KT AND HOLD UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
04
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
SEVERAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT. THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BRING
COLDER TEMPS FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...HIGHS ON TUES WILL JUMP 10-12 DEG
AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON WED WITH A COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE
THIRD COLD FRONT IS A BIT IN QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL
ARRIVE EITHER SATURDAY OR SAT NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGES...WHICH MEANS WE HAVE SEVERAL DAYS WITH
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET...EXCEPT FOR IN
OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE CU FIELD APPEARS MORE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN. AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR COUNTIES TONIGHT...
IT WILL BRING SOME LOWER DEWPOINT AIR WITH IT. HOWEVER...AS TEMPS
DROP BEFORE THE DRY AIR ARRIVES, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE...SO THAT SHOULD PREVENT ANY DENSE FOG.
MONDAY WILL CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE
TOWARD IL ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF RAIN
WILL STALL OUT IN IOWA MON/MON NIGHT. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS C IL. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL REBOUND ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY BEHIND THAT WARM FRONT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BAND OF
PRECIP ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE COLD AIR WILL LAG A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...SO HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MAY REACH THE MID 70S AGAIN...BUT NORTHERN AREAS MAY BE HELD DOWN IN
THE UPPER 60S WITH FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY WILL BE OUR NEXT COOL DAY...AS HIGHS DROP 10-12 DEG BELOW
WED HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S
SOUTHWEST. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.
AS FOR THE FAR EXTENDED...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE STRONGER WITH
THE LEADING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THAN THE GFS. THEN GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY BOTH
SYSTEMS...AS DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY AS COLD AIR PASSES BY JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
918 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.UPDATE...
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO ONGOING FCST WRT DLAD TIMING OF PRECIP
WITH SLOWER INITIATION NOW UNDERWAY FM NCNTL INTO WCNTL ILLINOIS.
GIVEN INITIAL DOWNSTREAM/CWA DPS IN 30S...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SFC FNTL BNDRY...AND TIMED LOW CHC
POPS INLINE WITH HIGH RES BLEND WRF/RUC/HRRR. ADDITIONAL SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO TEMP/DP/WIND TOWARD LATEST HRRR/LAV GUID.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD ARE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND LLWS.
LACK OF BOTH MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING PLAGUE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
IN NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS CAN BE
FOUND IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND WILL ADVECT TOWARDS NORTHERN INDIANA
TONIGHT. THIS THIN AREA OF INSTABILITY IS WHERE INITIAL ATTEMPTS AT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION CAN BE SEEN AS AGITATED CU ON VIS SAT AND
WEAK RETURNS ON KDVN RADAR. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
GUIDANCE THAT BOTH SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING AROUND
00Z AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH 03Z BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. THIS LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH KSBN
BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z AND KFWA BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. WENT VCTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS TO SHOW LACK OF CONFIDENCE SINCE STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE CLOSER AND COVERAGE MAY BE SPARSE.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS REQUIRES A LLWS MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
SHORT TERM... / TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT /
OPENING/FILLING UPPER LOW NOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER WILL
PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE
A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND WEAK INSTABILITY WORKS IN JUST AHEAD/ALONG OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITHIN A STRENGTHENING LLJ. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HINTS
AT THE CAP BREAKING AND DEEP MOIST CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING FROM NORTHERN MO INTO SE IA AND NRN IL
WITHIN THIS NARROW WARM SECTOR...WITH STRONGER MID/UPPER LVL
ASCENT / PER HEIGHT FALLS AND 7-3H Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE /
SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL LOWER MI ALONG THE
SYSTEM SFC OCCLUSION. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WRT WHETHER OR
NOT THIS ACTIVITY FILLS IN OVER THE FA...AND TIMING. A COMBINATION
OF LATER ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
UPTICK IN MID LEVEL ASCENT LATE WITH A PIVOTING 70 KT MID LVL JET
MAX...SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. SPC
HAS THE IWX CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER WITH A FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS...BEST CHANCES BEFORE 06Z. DEEP SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS
COMBINED WITH NARROWING MUCAPE PLUME AROUND 1000 J/KG SUPPORTS
THIS VERY LOW RISK FOR HAIL/WIND.
ON WEDNESDAY...DEEP POST FRONTAL MIXING IN DRY SLOT WILL PROMOTE
DRY, WINDY, AND UNUSUALLY MILD WX. A BROKEN STRATO CU DECK COULD
CLIP NORTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY LIMITING MIXING/INSOLATION. LOW
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME PATCHY FROST TO NORTHERN AREAS. OPTED
TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF FROST OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW GIVEN A
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND POTENTIAL FOR SCT/BKN STRATO CU
DECK.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
COOLER CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NEAR NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ANTICIPATED TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXING TO AROUND 2000 FT WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...ALTHOUGH COOLER
FOR LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S WHERE ONSHORE COMPONENT SHOULD
PERSIST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
THETAE GRADIENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET...WITH
AXIS OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SHIFTING INTO FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS RESOLVING TIMING OF SMALLER
SCALE EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES.
FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE SMALLER SCALE
EMBEDDED WAVES EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF BROADER NEGATIVE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALY ACROSS WESTERN CONUS HOWEVER...AND FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLE IDEA OF LOW CHANCE -TSRA POPS ACROSS THE WEST
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHER CONCERN...WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE EAST WHERE WEAKER GRADIENT/DECOUPLING WILL
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONCERN NOW THAT MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. WILL MAINTAIN THIS PATCHY FROST MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN A
PERIOD OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AT LEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.
FOR FRIDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND IN POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE...AS A SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SHIFTS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE DOES APPEAR TO BE IN A
DAMPENING PHASE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME GIVEN LIMITED MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND QUESTIONABLE POTENTIAL OF SFC BASED CONVECTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH POPS FOR THE WEEKEND REMAINS LOW DUE TO
POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE WAVES INFLUENCING THE AREA AND
DIFFICULT TO LATCH ONTO POPS AT THIS TIME...UNTIL LATE SUNDAY WHEN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN MORE VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE PLAINS.
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCE WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
HAS BEEN VERY POOR WITH 12Z CONSENSUS MUCH FASTER THAN 00Z GUIDANCE.
SYSTEM LIKELY TO BE IN OCCLUSION PHASE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE TSRA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AS COOL MID LEVEL POCKET INDUCES
CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH...TRENDING BACK TO MID 50S TO 60 BY TUESDAY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...BENTLEY
UPDATE...MURPHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
819 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD ARE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND LLWS.
LACK OF BOTH MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING PLAGUE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
IN NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS CAN BE
FOUND IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND WILL ADVECT TOWARDS NORTHERN INDIANA
TONIGHT. THIS THIN AREA OF INSTABILITY IS WHERE INITIAL ATTEMPTS AT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION CAN BE SEEN AS AGITATED CU ON VIS SAT AND
WEAK RETURNS ON KDVN RADAR. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
GUIDANCE THAT BOTH SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING AROUND
00Z AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH 03Z BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. THIS LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH KSBN
BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z AND KFWA BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. WENT VCTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS TO SHOW LACK OF CONFIDENCE SINCE STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE CLOSER AND COVERAGE MAY BE SPARSE.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS REQUIRES A LLWS MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
SHORT TERM... / TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT /
OPENING/FILLING UPPER LOW NOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER WILL
PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE
A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND WEAK INSTABILITY WORKS IN JUST AHEAD/ALONG OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITHIN A STRENGTHENING LLJ. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HINTS
AT THE CAP BREAKING AND DEEP MOIST CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING FROM NORTHERN MO INTO SE IA AND NRN IL
WITHIN THIS NARROW WARM SECTOR...WITH STRONGER MID/UPPER LVL
ASCENT / PER HEIGHT FALLS AND 7-3H Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE /
SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL LOWER MI ALONG THE
SYSTEM SFC OCCLUSION. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WRT WHETHER OR
NOT THIS ACTIVITY FILLS IN OVER THE FA...AND TIMING. A COMBINATION
OF LATER ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
UPTICK IN MID LEVEL ASCENT LATE WITH A PIVOTING 70 KT MID LVL JET
MAX...SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. SPC
HAS THE IWX CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER WITH A FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS...BEST CHANCES BEFORE 06Z. DEEP SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS
COMBINED WITH NARROWING MUCAPE PLUME AROUND 1000 J/KG SUPPORTS
THIS VERY LOW RISK FOR HAIL/WIND.
ON WEDNESDAY...DEEP POST FRONTAL MIXING IN DRY SLOT WILL PROMOTE
DRY, WINDY, AND UNUSUALLY MILD WX. A BROKEN STRATO CU DECK COULD
CLIP NORTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY LIMITING MIXING/INSOLATION. LOW
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME PATCHY FROST TO NORTHERN AREAS. OPTED
TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF FROST OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW GIVEN A
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND POTENTIAL FOR SCT/BKN STRATO CU
DECK.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
COOLER CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NEAR NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ANTICIPATED TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXING TO AROUND 2000 FT WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...ALTHOUGH COOLER
FOR LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S WHERE ONSHORE COMPONENT SHOULD
PERSIST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
THETAE GRADIENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET...WITH
AXIS OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SHIFTING INTO FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS RESOLVING TIMING OF SMALLER
SCALE EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES.
FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE SMALLER SCALE
EMBEDDED WAVES EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF BROADER NEGATIVE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALY ACROSS WESTERN CONUS HOWEVER...AND FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLE IDEA OF LOW CHANCE -TSRA POPS ACROSS THE WEST
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHER CONCERN...WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE EAST WHERE WEAKER GRADIENT/DECOUPLING WILL
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONCERN NOW THAT MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. WILL MAINTAIN THIS PATCHY FROST MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN A
PERIOD OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AT LEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.
FOR FRIDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND IN POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE...AS A SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SHIFTS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE DOES APPEAR TO BE IN A
DAMPENING PHASE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME GIVEN LIMITED MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND QUESTIONABLE POTENTIAL OF SFC BASED CONVECTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH POPS FOR THE WEEKEND REMAINS LOW DUE TO
POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE WAVES INFLUENCING THE AREA AND
DIFFICULT TO LATCH ONTO POPS AT THIS TIME...UNTIL LATE SUNDAY WHEN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN MORE VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE PLAINS.
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCE WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
HAS BEEN VERY POOR WITH 12Z CONSENSUS MUCH FASTER THAN 00Z GUIDANCE.
SYSTEM LIKELY TO BE IN OCCLUSION PHASE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE TSRA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AS COOL MID LEVEL POCKET INDUCES
CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH...TRENDING BACK TO MID 50S TO 60 BY TUESDAY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...BENTLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
728 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.UPDATE PUBLIC DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
REMOVED ADV FROM AFD...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. /REV
.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SFC TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LOW PRESSURE IS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH CNTRL IA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS DOWNSLOPE PROPERTIES INITIALLY REMAINING MILD YET MUCH
DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ADVECTING IN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER PV ANOMALY OVER SRN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK EAST AND WILL BE
OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 00Z. SOME ASSOCIATED KINEMATIC
FORCING WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
WARNING AREA. RUC AND NAM PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP
LOCATED NEAR 750 MB WHICH DOES NOT ERODE UNTIL AFTER 23Z WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL COOLING AND KINEMATICS WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE.
POSSIBLE A STORM OR TWO MAY FIRE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST BUT OVERALL
THE CURRENT INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REALIZED UNTIL IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE.
A FEW SITES NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM MOMENT THOUGH OVERALL
MOST ARE BELOW. HAVE TRIMMED PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY BUT HAVE KEPT
THE NORTH TO KEEP COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING SITES. HAVE MOVED
END TIME UP TO 7 PM WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND MIXING.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TWO PRIMARY SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH IN THIS PERIOD. WEAK RIDGE
APPROACHING THE MO VALLEY PRECEDING SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CURRENT EAST PACIFIC LONG WAVE THROUGH. THIS WAVE SHOULD REACH THE
HIGH PLAINS LATE TOMORROW WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...WILL INCREASE WARM ADVECTION INTO THE MO VALLEY. THETA-E
ADVECTION ADVANCES INTO SWRN IA COINCIDENT WITH ELEVATED CAPE
GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN NW INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND ERN MN...MODEL 300K SURFACES NEAR INVERSION TOP SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND SATURATION EARLY THU MORNING FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM WHERE BOTH NAM AND GFS DEPICT
1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPES BECOMING UNCAPPED JUST WEST OF MO RIVER
DURING PEAK HEATING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT
THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AIDED BY LARGE SCALE
FORCING WITH WAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MCS TO DEVELOP AND THEN
LIKELY WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. REGARDING
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING EVENT...ELEVATED NATURE AND FAIRLY WEAK
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER EARLY THU SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL. MOST LIKELY SEVERE CHANCES LOOK TO
BE DURING PEAK HEATING TAPPING BETTER 0-6KM SHEAR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHEN AND IF CONVECTION BECOMES SURFACE BASED.
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHT CHANCES FRI NIGHT
WITH NEXT LARGE SYSTEM IN THE OFFING EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
SUGGESTING FORCING INCREASING SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST SHEAR SEEMS TO REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH AND INSTABILITY IS UNREMARKABLE AT THIS POINT SO DO NOT
SEE ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT. DIRTY NW
FLOW WILL KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TUE. TEMPS
WILL DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THIS...BUT ONLY DOWN TO ABOUT CLIMO. NO
FREEZING TEMPS OR FROST ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION...28/00Z
FRONT QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY EAST THIS EVENING WITH BRISK WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH
SCT070 TO BKN150 EXPECTED NEAR FEW HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. MIXING
WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFT 00Z AND EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX QUICKLY INTO
THE 01Z HOUR. BY 15Z WED MIXING WILL AGAIN INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20
TO 25KTS NORTH DURING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON/REV
AVIATION...REV
LONG TERM...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
624 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.UPDATE 28/00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SFC TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LOW PRESSURE IS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH CNTRL IA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS DOWNSLOPE PROPERTIES INITIALLY REMAINING MILD YET MUCH
DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ADVECTING IN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER PV ANOMALY OVER SRN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK EAST AND WILL BE
OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 00Z. SOME ASSOCIATED KINEMATIC
FORCING WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
WARNING AREA. RUC AND NAM PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP
LOCATED NEAR 750 MB WHICH DOES NOT ERODE UNTIL AFTER 23Z WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL COOLING AND KINEMATICS WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE.
POSSIBLE A STORM OR TWO MAY FIRE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST BUT OVERALL
THE CURRENT INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REALIZED UNTIL IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE.
A FEW SITES NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM MOMENT THOUGH OVERALL
MOST ARE BELOW. HAVE TRIMMED PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY BUT HAVE KEPT
THE NORTH TO KEEP COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING SITES. HAVE MOVED
END TIME UP TO 7 PM WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND MIXING.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TWO PRIMARY SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH IN THIS PERIOD. WEAK RIDGE
APPROACHING THE MO VALLEY PRECEDING SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CURRENT EAST PACIFIC LONG WAVE THROUGH. THIS WAVE SHOULD REACH THE
HIGH PLAINS LATE TOMORROW WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...WILL INCREASE WARM ADVECTION INTO THE MO VALLEY. THETA-E
ADVECTION ADVANCES INTO SWRN IA COINCIDENT WITH ELEVATED CAPE
GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN NW INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND ERN MN...MODEL 300K SURFACES NEAR INVERSION TOP SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND SATURATION EARLY THU MORNING FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM WHERE BOTH NAM AND GFS DEPICT
1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPES BECOMING UNCAPPED JUST WEST OF MO RIVER
DURING PEAK HEATING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT
THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AIDED BY LARGE SCALE
FORCING WITH WAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MCS TO DEVELOP AND THEN
LIKELY WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. REGARDING
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING EVENT...ELEVATED NATURE AND FAIRLY WEAK
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER EARLY THU SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL. MOST LIKELY SEVERE CHANCES LOOK TO
BE DURING PEAK HEATING TAPPING BETTER 0-6KM SHEAR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHEN AND IF CONVECTION BECOMES SURFACE BASED.
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHT CHANCES FRI NIGHT
WITH NEXT LARGE SYSTEM IN THE OFFING EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
SUGGESTING FORCING INCREASING SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST SHEAR SEEMS TO REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH AND INSTABILITY IS UNREMARKABLE AT THIS POINT SO DO NOT
SEE ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT. DIRTY NW
FLOW WILL KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TUE. TEMPS
WILL DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THIS...BUT ONLY DOWN TO ABOUT CLIMO. NO
FREEZING TEMPS OR FROST ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION...28/00Z
FRONT QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY EAST THIS EVENING WITH BRISK WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH
SCT070 TO BKN150 EXPECTED NEAR FEW HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. MIXING
WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFT 00Z AND EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX QUICKLY INTO
THE 01Z HOUR. BY 15Z WED MIXING WILL AGAIN INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20
TO 25KTS NORTH DURING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...DONAVON
LONG TERM...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1153 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.AVIATION...
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE OVRNGT AND MON MORNING AS
COLD MOIST AIR ADVECTS IN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR IFR CIGS ESPECIALLY NEAR MISSISSIPPI RVR TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THROUGH MID AM MON ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH VSBYS
2-6SM. AREA OF SHOWERS OVER MN WILL DRIFT E/SE AND MAY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF NE IA AND ESPECIALLY NW IL LATE TNGT THROUGH MON AM.
DBQ TERMINAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF FORCING AND HAVE GONE WITH
VCSH FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS OVRNGT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH REST OF TAF CYCLE.
EXPECT CIGS TO CLIMB INTO VFR DURING THE AFTN AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH
MON EVE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER WESTERN MN OCCURRING IN ZONE
OF ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE IN 850-700 MB
LAYERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS WARM ADVECTION AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE
INCREASING OVRNGT IN AREAS MAINLY N/NE OF QUAD CITIES. SOME OF THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF HRRR AND RUC BACKUP MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
PCPN COMING INTO NORTH... ALBEIT SLOW ON TRENDS. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ADDED POPS TO AREAS NORTH OF QUAD CITIES OVRNGT AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MON. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP OUT SHORTLY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
THE MORNING UA ANALYSIS HAD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A
S/W OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE S/W WAS NOT
EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS AT 18Z HOWEVER THERE
WAS A NICE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
TRAILING NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE 18Z ANALYSIS
SHOWED 70 PLUS TEMPS AS FAR NORTH AS KDBQ AND TEMPS AROUND 60 IN
NORTHEAST IA AND SOURTHEASTERN MN.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS COOL AND SATURATE.
MID CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL WAA. FORCING OVERNIGHT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR OFF LAKE
MI...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED
LAYER WHICH ISN/T FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE. SOME LOW POPS WERE
INCLUDED FOR MONDAY WHEN LOW AND MID LEVEL FGEN SPREADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN CWFA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COLDER THAN WHAT THE REGION HAS EXPERIENCED THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWFA.
IT/S QUESTIONABLE IF THE COLDER AIR WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST CWFA
BY MORNING SO KEPT MINS THERE IN THE LOWER 50S. MONDAY
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL NOT
REBOUND MUCH WITH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS...CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN SHOWERS SO KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ..DLF..
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER...BUT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES TO THEN FOLLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK. RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED.
MONDAY NIGHT...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WITH 850 WINDS PROGGED
FROM 50 TO 70 KTS...IS SHOWN SURGING GULF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THIS IS DIRECTED WELL TO
OUR WEST...THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRAY ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS OVER THE ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO POSSIBLY OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EDGE OF THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO OUR WEST TO WANDER INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO COVER THIS.
OTHERWISE...THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRISK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UNTIL A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE
SURFACE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MORNING...THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
OUT OF THE RIDGE WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S NORTH TO LOWER
50S SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS DEPICT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE
AT OR BELOW 850 MB AND HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EVEN WITH
THE CLOUD COVER...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST. THIS WARMING...COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S IS SHOWN BY THE NAM RESULTING
IN MUCAPES IN THE RANGE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS...COMBINED WITH
30 TO 40 KTS OF SURFACE TO 6 KM SPEED SHEAR WITH VEERING PROFILES...
MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LOW END SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE CURRENT SPC DAY
3 OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER OUR SE COUNTIES. ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTS POPS IN A 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE. THE BACK EDGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE ON-GOING AT 00Z OVER THE FAR EAST AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES GOING THERE INTO TUE EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED INTO
THU. WED NIGHT MAY SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NORTH AS THE
RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE...THE MEN FROM
THE 00Z RUN...INDICATES POCKETS OF MID 30S OVER EAST CENTRAL IA INTO
NW IL. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS TREND...BUT HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH MINS FROM THE UPPER
30S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN SENDING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW THROUGH KS TO CENTRAL IL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW BEYOND AS THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HANDLE ENSUING SHORTWAVES...RESULTING IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THAT
WILL LIKELY BECOME DEFINED IN LATER FORECASTS. ..SHEETS..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
852 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BEST ON LATEST
SATELLITE MODEL DATA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CLOUD COVER
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND DECREASED. LATEST HRRR BRINGS SOME FOG
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSERTED
PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA FROM 09Z TO 14Z. ADJUSTED THE
DEWPOINTS/WINDS PER LATEST RUC/HRRR. 00Z SOUNDINGS AND NAM WOULD
INDICATE THAT EVEN THOUGH THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THE
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY VERY DRY AND CAPPED ALOFT. SO LEFT ANY MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
CANCELLED RED FLAG WARNING EARLY AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY. CURRENTLY RATHER THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS BEING CAUSE BY RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF MID/UPPER JET THAT REMAINS/MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
EVENING. WIND FIELD IS RATHER LIGHT RIGHT NOW WITH RUC/HRRR
CATCHING THE WIND FIELD NICELY SO ADJUSTED USING THEM.
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS SHOWING A RATHER HIGH
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE CINH LOOKS STRONG
BUT WITH SOME POCKETS OF WEAKNESS. QUESTION WILL THERE BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO GET THIS FULLY REALIZED. WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THROUGH THE EVENING AND LOOK AT LATEST MODEL DATA/00Z
SOUNDINGS TO SEE IF NEED TO ADD SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FLATTEN
IT OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNSEASONABLY MILD FOR LATE MARCH UNDER THIS REGIME.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS
APPROACHING THE WICHITA AREA WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S ARE BEING PUSHED INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
IN THE SHORT TERM AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AS A LEE
TROUGH AND RETURN SURFACE FLOW SET UP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY RETURN TO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT A STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW MOVING ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME GIVEN 700 MB WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. HAVE
INCLUDED LOW POPS AND SHOWERS MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THIS
AREA. KEPT THUNDER OUT FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF GOOD INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THURSDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD NORTH WINDS GUSTING 30 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
FRIDAY...DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
WHICH BY 00Z SUNDAY SHOULD BE COMING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. BY 00Z TUESDAY
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND MAY BECOME BREEZY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES
IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE 80S FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER 70S EAST. ON MONDAY
EXPECTED MID 50S TO LOW 60S WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPS AS SUNDAYS SYSTEM LIFTS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER STORM MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 451 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIBALE WINDS
TONIGHT...AND AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER KMCK...WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT KGLD
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER EASTERN
COLORADO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT KMCK AND GUST TO NEAR 18 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
20 PERCENT AND NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH MAY CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN
NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST AROUND 30 MPH LATE
IN THE DAY TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE
KANSAS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY BELOW 20 PERCENT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM....007
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 455 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
HAVE TRIMMED POPS FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO LAPS/SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG BUT CINH AROUND NEGATIVE 200 TO 400 J/KG. DEWPOINTS
ARE MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. FOLLOWED THE LATEST HRRR FOR GUIDANCE. HAVE DOUBTS ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL FORM THIS EVENING AND THE INSTABILITY THAT
IS CURRENTLY PRESENT WILL ALL GO TO MID LEVEL CLOUD FORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE
PERIOD.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA, POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS KANSAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THIS EVENING, THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AN
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS INCREASING FORCING NEAR THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO POOL SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...INCLUDING A MODEST +70KT JET...WILL
SKIRT JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, THE DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS, THERE IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY (LOW CAPE) DUE TO
THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, NOT TO MENTION A
POSSIBLE CAPPING ISSUE. STILL, CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT POPS SEEM REASONABLE HERE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AS THE
APPROACHING LEE SIDE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS
MAINLY DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S(F) TO LOW 50S(F). A FEW 40S(F)
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GO NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TUESDAY, A SMALL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO WORK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS DURING THE DAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS(C). SHOULD SEE HIGHS UP
INTO THE 70S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH LOWER 80S(F) POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 5
BEFORE STARTING TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN STATES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF STAFFORD TO MEDICINE
LODGE AND COLDWATER. THE MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A PRECIPITATION
SIGNAL ALONG THE FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S
AROUND MEDICINE LODGE, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE NEARLY
UNCAPPED BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MODERATE CAPE VALUES FORECAST.
AN EIGHTY KNOT JET WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FARTHER NORTHWEST IT APPEARS
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED TO PREVENT ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING INTO THE AREA WE COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCES AROUND HIGHWAY
281 AND EAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE POPS IN THE
PRATT-MEDICINE LODGE-COLDWATER AREAS.
THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
TOWARD DAY 7 THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS PRETTY LOW. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS FOR WINDS, A STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. AS
A RESULT, SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 77 49 81 / 20 0 10 10
GCK 46 75 45 80 / 20 0 10 10
EHA 45 75 43 80 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 50 77 45 81 / 20 0 0 10
HYS 50 75 46 80 / 10 0 10 10
P28 57 80 56 82 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>080-084>089.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM....GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1135 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
03Z WATER IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION ENTERING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN A SIMILAR POSITION FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 00Z
RAOBS INDICATED A SHARP CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH FAIRLY LARGE INCREASES IN MOISTURE BELOW H75
NOTED AT KDDC AND KLBF FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS EVIDENCED BY +0.3
CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THAT TIME.
ASIDE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG AND VERY SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS/FIRE WX AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY-TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LATEST RUNS OF HRRR TRYING TO
BREAK OUT SOME WEAK CONVECTION AROUND 12Z...ISENTROPIC FIELDS
SUGGEST BULK OF FORCING ALONG NOSE OF LLJ WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA AND WITH CONDENSATION DEFICITS IN EXCESS OF 130
MB...SEEMS DOUBTFUL ANY MORNING INSTABILITY WOULD BE REALIZED AND
THINK BULK OF MORNING WX CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND ANY LINGERING
FOG AROUND SUNRISE. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY AND ADJUST AS
TRENDS DICTATE.
BEST...ALBEIT SMALL...CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z
AS CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE REALLY BEGINS TO SHARPEN AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. AREA WILL STILL BE PRETTY FAR REMOVED FROM
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS WYOMING
AND WITH STRONG CAP/CINH IN PLACE HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND IF STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG AS
THEY MOVED AWAY FROM SFC FORCING. STILL FEEL SMALL POPS WARRANTED
AND GIVEN SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROFILES THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO AS THINGS INITIATE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST IN THE EVENING. WITH THE RATHER SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND FIRE WX WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS SHOULD PRETTY EASILY MEET ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT HAVE A FEW CONCERNS THAT
HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA MAY OCCUR WITH THE MUCH
DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF DRYLINE. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
NOT REALLY GIVING A SOLID CONSENSUS IN THIS REGARD AND WITH MIXED
LAYER DATA GENERALLY TOPPING AT AROUND 48 KTS AND A WEAKER SFC LOW
THAN LAST WEEK...THINK CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO UPGRADE ADVISORY TO
WARNING AT THIS POINT. FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THINK DRY LINE
WILL HUG KS/CO BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
OCCUR TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER AS LOW BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...EXPECT DRYLINE TO START ADVANCING EASTWARD. IT
WILL BE MARGINAL FROM A DURATION ASPECT...BUT FEEL UPGRADING FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO WARNING IS APPROPRIATE.
TUESDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH ADVANCING SFC
RIDGE. WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA AND SHORT
WAVE RIDGING STARTING TO DEVELOP...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY SIG WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE MAGNITUDE OF
DRY AIR THAT WILL BE ADVECTED INTO AREA BEHIND FRONT. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...POSITION OF
SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA
MITIGATING THE FIRE WX THREAT. COULD POSSIBLY SEE STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS NEBRASKA COUNTIES...BUT THINK WITH CURRENT FIRE HIGHLIGHTS
AND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER WINDS DO NOT FEEL WATCH
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE WILL
LIKELY BE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD AS NOT ONLY WILL THIS FEATURE
PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL
ALSO BRING MUCH MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE CWA. GIVEN CWA WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE DOUBTS THAT FRONT WILL MAKE A RAPID NORTHERLY SURGE
AND PREFER THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION GIVEN BY NAM AND LATEST
ENSEMBLE MEANS. IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
PERIOD...THINK MOST LIKELY PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS LLJ
INCREASES THROUGH 06Z IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ROCKIES. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING A STRONG SURGE OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO AREA...BUT ISENTROPIC SURFACES SUGGEST
FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN CWA DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL A LOT OF CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER OR
NOT PARCELS WILL SATURATE AND INSTABILITY BE REALIZED...BUT THINK A
SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS IS WARRANTED. IN ADDITION TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOTH NIGHTS WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG FORMATION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START THIS PERIOD.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ADJACENT PLAINS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. APPEARS THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND COUPLED WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
HOW TO HANDLE THAT SYSTEM VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO WILL NOT
CARRY ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...AND WHILE GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG
THIS EVENING AS THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ON TUESDAY MORNING AT
KGLD...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD RETURN TO KMCK GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
STATE LINE AS A DRYLINE SLOWLY ADVANCES TO THE EAST TODAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A SUDDEN SHIFT IN THE WINDS AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING
HUMIDITIES DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IF WINDS DO OCCUR...WILL
LIKELY BE A MUCH SMALLER MAGNITUDE OF EVENT THAN TODAY AND CHOSE
TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO AVOID CONFUSION ABOUT TODAYS
WARNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-013-027-041.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
530 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
03Z WATER IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION ENTERING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN A SIMILAR POSITION FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 00Z
RAOBS INDICATED A SHARP CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH FAIRLY LARGE INCREASES IN MOISTURE BELOW H75
NOTED AT KDDC AND KLBF FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS EVIDENCED BY +0.3
CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THAT TIME.
ASIDE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG AND VERY SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS/FIRE WX AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY-TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LATEST RUNS OF HRRR TRYING TO
BREAK OUT SOME WEAK CONVECTION AROUND 12Z...ISENTROPIC FIELDS
SUGGEST BULK OF FORCING ALONG NOSE OF LLJ WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA AND WITH CONDENSATION DEFICITS IN EXCESS OF 130
MB...SEEMS DOUBTFUL ANY MORNING INSTABILITY WOULD BE REALIZED AND
THINK BULK OF MORNING WX CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND ANY LINGERING
FOG AROUND SUNRISE. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY AND ADJUST AS
TRENDS DICTATE.
BEST...ALBEIT SMALL...CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z
AS CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE REALLY BEGINS TO SHARPEN AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. AREA WILL STILL BE PRETTY FAR REMOVED FROM
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS WYOMING
AND WITH STRONG CAP/CINH IN PLACE HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND IF STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG AS
THEY MOVED AWAY FROM SFC FORCING. STILL FEEL SMALL POPS WARRANTED
AND GIVEN SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROFILES THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO AS THINGS INITIATE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST IN THE EVENING. WITH THE RATHER SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND FIRE WX WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS SHOULD PRETTY EASILY MEET ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT HAVE A FEW CONCERNS THAT
HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA MAY OCCUR WITH THE MUCH
DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF DRYLINE. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
NOT REALLY GIVING A SOLID CONSENSUS IN THIS REGARD AND WITH MIXED
LAYER DATA GENERALLY TOPPING AT AROUND 48 KTS AND A WEAKER SFC LOW
THAN LAST WEEK...THINK CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO UPGRADE ADVISORY TO
WARNING AT THIS POINT. FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THINK DRY LINE
WILL HUG KS/CO BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
OCCUR TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER AS LOW BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...EXPECT DRYLINE TO START ADVANCING EASTWARD. IT
WILL BE MARGINAL FROM A DURATION ASPECT...BUT FEEL UPGRADING FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO WARNING IS APPROPRIATE.
TUESDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH ADVANCING SFC
RIDGE. WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA AND SHORT
WAVE RIDGING STARTING TO DEVELOP...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY SIG WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE MAGNITUDE OF
DRY AIR THAT WILL BE ADVECTED INTO AREA BEHIND FRONT. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...POSITION OF
SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA
MITIGATING THE FIRE WX THREAT. COULD POSSIBLY SEE STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS NEBRASKA COUNTIES...BUT THINK WITH CURRENT FIRE HIGHLIGHTS
AND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER WINDS DO NOT FEEL WATCH
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE WILL
LIKELY BE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD AS NOT ONLY WILL THIS FEATURE
PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL
ALSO BRING MUCH MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE CWA. GIVEN CWA WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE DOUBTS THAT FRONT WILL MAKE A RAPID NORTHERLY SURGE
AND PREFER THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION GIVEN BY NAM AND LATEST
ENSEMBLE MEANS. IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
PERIOD...THINK MOST LIKELY PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS LLJ
INCREASES THROUGH 06Z IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ROCKIES. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING A STRONG SURGE OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO AREA...BUT ISENTROPIC SURFACES SUGGEST
FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN CWA DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL A LOT OF CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER OR
NOT PARCELS WILL SATURATE AND INSTABILITY BE REALIZED...BUT THINK A
SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS IS WARRANTED. IN ADDITION TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOTH NIGHTS WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG FORMATION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START THIS PERIOD.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ADJACENT PLAINS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. APPEARS THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND COUPLED WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
HOW TO HANDLE THAT SYSTEM VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO WILL NOT
CARRY ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
PATCHY FOG AND SOME LINGERING LLWS WILL CONTINUE AROUND MCK THROUGH
13Z AS WEAK FRONTAL ZONE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH BRINGING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND A PROFILE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR LLWS. OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN FOR PERIOD WILL BE
HOW FAST AND HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE...MAINLY BTNW 20-01Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS GET TO AROUND 44KTS AT BOTH
LOCATIONS...WITH WINDS BRIEFLY WEAKENING IN THE EVENING BEFORE
STRONG COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT COMES THROUGH AFTER 04Z. COULD STILL
SEE SOME BLOWING DUST CAUSING VISBY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AS
DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH GLD BUT WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DO
NOT THINK PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. EXPECTED
COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE VERY LOW AND DO NOT PLAN
ON INCLUDING EVEN A VCTS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
STATE LINE AS A DRYLINE SLOWLY ADVANCES TO THE EAST TODAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A SUDDEN SHIFT IN THE WINDS AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING
HUMIDITIES DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IF WINDS DO OCCUR...WILL
LIKELY BE A MUCH SMALLER MAGNITUDE OF EVENT THAN TODAY AND CHOSE
TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO AVOID CONFUSION ABOUT TODAYS
WARNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ252>254.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ090>092.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
150 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
03Z WATER IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION ENTERING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN A SIMILAR POSITION FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 00Z
RAOBS INDICATED A SHARP CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH FAIRLY LARGE INCREASES IN MOISTURE BELOW H75
NOTED AT KDDC AND KLBF FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS EVIDENCED BY +0.3
CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THAT TIME.
ASIDE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG AND VERY SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS/FIRE WX AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY-TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LATEST RUNS OF HRRR TRYING TO
BREAK OUT SOME WEAK CONVECTION AROUND 12Z...ISENTROPIC FIELDS
SUGGEST BULK OF FORCING ALONG NOSE OF LLJ WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA AND WITH CONDENSATION DEFICITS IN EXCESS OF 130
MB...SEEMS DOUBTFUL ANY MORNING INSTABILITY WOULD BE REALIZED AND
THINK BULK OF MORNING WX CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND ANY LINGERING
FOG AROUND SUNRISE. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY AND ADJUST AS
TRENDS DICTATE.
BEST...ALBEIT SMALL...CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z
AS CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE REALLY BEGINS TO SHARPEN AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. AREA WILL STILL BE PRETTY FAR REMOVED FROM
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS WYOMING
AND WITH STRONG CAP/CINH IN PLACE HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND IF STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG AS
THEY MOVED AWAY FROM SFC FORCING. STILL FEEL SMALL POPS WARRANTED
AND GIVEN SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROFILES THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO AS THINGS INITIATE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST IN THE EVENING. WITH THE RATHER SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND FIRE WX WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS SHOULD PRETTY EASILY MEET ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT HAVE A FEW CONCERNS THAT
HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA MAY OCCUR WITH THE MUCH
DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF DRYLINE. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
NOT REALLY GIVING A SOLID CONSENSUS IN THIS REGARD AND WITH MIXED
LAYER DATA GENERALLY TOPPING AT AROUND 48 KTS AND A WEAKER SFC LOW
THAN LAST WEEK...THINK CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO UPGRADE ADVISORY TO
WARNING AT THIS POINT. FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THINK DRY LINE
WILL HUG KS/CO BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
OCCUR TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER AS LOW BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...EXPECT DRYLINE TO START ADVANCING EASTWARD. IT
WILL BE MARGINAL FROM A DURATION ASPECT...BUT FEEL UPGRADING FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO WARNING IS APPROPRIATE.
TUESDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH ADVANCING SFC
RIDGE. WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA AND SHORT
WAVE RIDGING STARTING TO DEVELOP...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY SIG WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE MAGNITUDE OF
DRY AIR THAT WILL BE ADVECTED INTO AREA BEHIND FRONT. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...POSITION OF
SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA
MITIGATING THE FIRE WX THREAT. COULD POSSIBLY SEE STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS NEBRASKA COUNTIES...BUT THINK WITH CURRENT FIRE HIGHLIGHTS
AND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER WINDS DO NOT FEEL WATCH
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE WILL
LIKELY BE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD AS NOT ONLY WILL THIS FEATURE
PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL
ALSO BRING MUCH MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE CWA. GIVEN CWA WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE DOUBTS THAT FRONT WILL MAKE A RAPID NORTHERLY SURGE
AND PREFER THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION GIVEN BY NAM AND LATEST
ENSEMBLE MEANS. IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
PERIOD...THINK MOST LIKELY PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS LLJ
INCREASES THROUGH 06Z IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ROCKIES. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING A STRONG SURGE OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO AREA...BUT ISENTROPIC SURFACES SUGGEST
FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN CWA DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL A LOT OF CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER OR
NOT PARCELS WILL SATURATE AND INSTABILITY BE REALIZED...BUT THINK A
SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS IS WARRANTED. IN ADDITION TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOTH NIGHTS WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG FORMATION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START THIS PERIOD.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ADJACENT PLAINS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. APPEARS THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND COUPLED WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
HOW TO HANDLE THAT SYSTEM VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO WILL NOT
CARRY ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
LOT OF CHANGES/THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. BEFORE THE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT
KMCK. BY 14Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KMCK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME
BLOWING DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES...MAINLY AT KGLD...INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SINCE THIS FALLS DURING THE LATER HALF
OF THE PERIOD AND UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING/AREA OF
INITIATION...CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH ONLY A CB MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
STATE LINE AS A DRYLINE SLOWLY ADVANCES TO THE EAST TODAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A SUDDEN SHIFT IN THE WINDS AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING
HUMIDITIES DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IF WINDS DO OCCUR...WILL
LIKELY BE A MUCH SMALLER MAGNITUDE OF EVENT THAN TODAY AND CHOSE
TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO AVOID CONFUSION ABOUT TODAYS
WARNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ252>254.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ090>092.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
100 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
JUST COMPLETED ANOTHER UPDATE. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND
EXPECTED MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN. ALSO DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL SHIFT
UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT PER THE RUC WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT WIND AND DEWPOINT FIELD...ALTHOUGH NOT AS GOOD ON THE
DEWPOINTS. SO USED IT FOR THE BASIS OF THE UPDATE.
AS A RESULT OF A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG ONCE AGAIN TO AREAS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE THICK
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO BECOME
DENSE BUT THIS WILL NEED CONTINUED MONITORING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
JUST COMPLETED A MINOR UPDATE. A GREAT DEAL OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. MOISTURE PROGS WOULD INDICATE THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
STAY AS THICK AS IT IS NOW OR GET THICKER. SO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
DATA...EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG AREA TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EVEN
THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE GREATER THAN LAST NIGHT...
THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE/VEERING OF THE WIND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND CHANCES THAT IT
WILL BE DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH TRENDS ON THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. PRIMARY QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER FOG WILL
REFORM ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING ANYTHING BUT A
CONSENSUS WITH RUC MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT EVENING
SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SITUATION CLOSELY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY WITH A
MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION ON
THAT POTENTIAL. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MONDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
BUT DOES NOT REALLY MIX EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER UNTIL LATE MONDAY
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD.
IN ADDITION TO FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS...ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STRONGEST DYNAMIC REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE OBSERVED
FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF AN UPDRAFT CAN DEVELOP AND BE SUSTAINED. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN
ANTICIPATED 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AS PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START THIS PERIOD.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ADJACENT PLAINS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. APPEARS THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND COUPLED WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
HOW TO HANDLE THAT SYSTEM VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO WILL NOT
CARRY ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
LOT OF CHANGES/THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. BEFORE THE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT
KMCK. BY 14Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KMCK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME
BLOWING DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES...MAINLY AT KGLD...INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SINCE THIS FALLS DURING THE LATER HALF
OF THE PERIOD AND UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING/AREA OF
INITIATION...CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH ONLY A CB MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RECORDS ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION ON MONDAY. ALSO STILL WELL ON TRACK FOR THE WARMEST
MARCH ON RECORD AT GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK. HERE ARE
THE LATEST FIGURES THROUGH MARCH 24.
GOODLAND - 48.8 DEGREES SET IN 1907 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 48.6
BURLINGTON - 47.7 DEGREES SET IN 1986 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 47.1
MCCOOK - 48.3 DEGREES SET IN 2007 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 49.9
HILL CITY - 54.3 DEGREES SET IN 1910 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 51.1
WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT
GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK WILL SEE THE WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD. IT REMAINS TO BE SEE IF HILL CITY WILL BREAK THE RECORD AS
WELL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ252>254.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...PMM/FOLTZ
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1151 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
JUST COMPLETED ANOTHER UPDATE. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND
EXPECTED MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN. ALSO DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL SHIFT
UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT PER THE RUC WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT WIND AND DEWPOINT FIELD...ALTHOUGH NOT AS GOOD ON THE
DEWPOINTS. SO USED IT FOR THE BASIS OF THE UPDATE.
AS A RESULT OF A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG ONCE AGAIN TO AREAS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE THICK
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO BECOME
DENSE BUT THIS WILL NEED CONTINUED MONITORING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
JUST COMPLETED A MINOR UPDATE. A GREAT DEAL OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. MOISTURE PROGS WOULD INDICATE THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
STAY AS THICK AS IT IS NOW OR GET THICKER. SO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
DATA...EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG AREA TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EVEN
THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE GREATER THAN LAST NIGHT...
THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE/VEERING OF THE WIND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND CHANCES THAT IT
WILL BE DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH TRENDS ON THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. PRIMARY QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER FOG WILL
REFORM ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING ANYTHING BUT A
CONSENSUS WITH RUC MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT EVENING
SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SITUATION CLOSELY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY WITH A
MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION ON
THAT POTENTIAL. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MONDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
BUT DOES NOT REALLY MIX EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER UNTIL LATE MONDAY
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD.
IN ADDITION TO FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS...ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STRONGEST DYNAMIC REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE OBSERVED
FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF AN UPDRAFT CAN DEVELOP AND BE SUSTAINED. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN
ANTICIPATED 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AS PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
DRY CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUATION OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS
A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
CONTINUED FOCUS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S CONTINUING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/GEFS MEAN AND EC
DEPICTING STARKLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP
A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE THE
EC SUPPORTS A RIDGE OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA AND HOLDS THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
LOT OF CHANGES/THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. BEFORE THE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT
KMCK. BY 14Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KMCK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME
BLOWING DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES...MAINLY AT KGLD...INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SINCE THIS FALLS DURING THE LATER HALF
OF THE PERIOD AND UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING/AREA OF
INITIATION...CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH ONLY A CB MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE THREE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY. LEFT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
INTACT FOR THE FIRST TIER OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE WILL MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON. OPTED TO CANCEL THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST AS
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW THAT CRITERIA WOULD BE MET IN THESE
LOCATIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RECORDS ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION ON MONDAY. ALSO STILL WELL ON TRACK FOR THE WARMEST
MARCH ON RECORD AT GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK. HERE ARE
THE LATEST FIGURES THROUGH MARCH 24.
GOODLAND - 48.8 DEGREES SET IN 1907 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 48.6
BURLINGTON - 47.7 DEGREES SET IN 1986 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 47.1
MCCOOK - 48.3 DEGREES SET IN 2007 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 49.9
HILL CITY - 54.3 DEGREES SET IN 1910 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 51.1
WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT
GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK WILL SEE THE WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD. IT REMAINS TO BE SEE IF HILL CITY WILL BREAK THE RECORD AS
WELL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ252>254.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...PMM/FOLTZ
LONG TERM....FOLTZ
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
359 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY ADVECT FROM NNW TO SSE ACROSS THE
CWA AT THIS TIME WITH MORE OF A SOLID BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THAT AT THIS POINT STILL SEEMS TO BE ADVECTION OUT AND THEN SOME MORE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KY THAT GENERALLY ALSO APPEAR TO BE
ADVECTING ACROSS RATHER THAN DEVELOPING FURTHER. A RATHER SUBTLE VORT/
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SLOW DOWN THE
ADVECTION OF THE MORE SOLID BAND IN THE SOUTH OUT AND COULD LEAD TO
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CURRENTLY MORE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
WORKING IN FROM THE NNW. THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO GENERALLY REFLECT
THIS THINKING FOR SKY COVER AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT OBS TRENDS
TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
CLOUD DECK AROUND 4K AGL FEET CURRENTLY ADVECTING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
DECK WILL CLEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE EXPECT UPSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
RUC GUIDANCE. HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS PER LATEST
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
730 PM EDT...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION FROM THE NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE
IS HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS THERE WILL BE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
LOW CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA...AND LATEST NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE
SHOW CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 850 MB TO BE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEING THE RESULT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 23Z. THIS IS CURRENTLY WELL DEPICTED IN
NDFD. ONLY SOME MINOR NDFD UPDATES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT
GIVING WAY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE TIP OF FAR EAST
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A TSTORM THIS FAR WEST SO REMOVED THAT MENTION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT KEEPING A
LIGHT BREEZE BLOWING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE DRIZZLE. ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSOLVE BY
MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ACCOMPANIED BY A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 20S OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THERE IS A CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THIS
DRY AIR AND DROP LOW ENOUGH TO THREATEN A FROST OR FREEZE FOR SOME
AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND POINT TO THERE BEING JUST ENOUGH
WIND TO KEEP ANY FROST FORMATION ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE
DEEPEST VALLEYS BASICALLY NORTH AND EAST OF JKL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON TUESDAY BUT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY...VARYING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM
MOS AT ANY GIVEN POINT. TEND TO AGREE MORE WITH THE GFS NUMBERS WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN
IN STORE. A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO KENTUCKY. A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT NEARLY SHEARING
IT OUT. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE AS WELL. WITH THE SLOWED APPROACH OF THE FRONT AND THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN PLACE...FEEL THAT THE NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE BULK OF THE PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARDS LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AS MOST OF THE FORCING ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
DURING MAX HEATING. SO WILL PUT THUNDERSTORMS IN WITH THE PRECIP. IT
IS STILL UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS AS ALOT OF THE ENERGY SEEMS TO GET LOST OR STAYS NORTH AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH. DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...A MODEL
COMPROMISE HAS PRECIP LASTING A BIT LONGER AS THE FRONT DOESNT EXIT
TILL LATE THURSDAY. THIS IS A BIT CONCERNING AS TENDENCY LIES WITH
PRECIP HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT WILL
LEAVE THIS DECISION WITH SHIFTS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS HOWEVER SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER STRONG WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS OCCURRING WHILE ANOTHER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL INJECT A
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS.
ALSO...AT THIS POINT THE GFS AND EURO DO DIVERGE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS WITH THE EURO BEING FASTER THAN THE GFS BRINGING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE GFS WAITS TILL FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE TWO IN THE CR INITIALIZATION HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE FRIDAY THEN PROGRESSING THROUGH SO WILL KEEP
THIS IN THERE.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX
WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THOUGH...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROLONGED
RAINFALLS. OVERALL...THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE
STILL A BIT MURKY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND THE FLIP
FLOPPING OF THE MODELS SO WILL EXUDE A LOW CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY DAY
6 AND 7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE AND THE FIRST 6 TO 12
HOURS OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS AS A RATHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME AND MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FORM THE NORTH. AT THIS POINT ALL
OF THE CLOUDS SEEM TO GENERALLY BE ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING BY DURING THE NEXT 6 HRS OR SO MAY SLOW DOWN
ADVECTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLE LEAD TO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE BANDS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE
MOVE ACROSS THE JKL CWA. AT THIS POINT...NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SEEM TO
INDICATE PREVAILING CLOUD HEIGHTS OF THE LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY IN THE VFR
RANGE WITH SOME MVFR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A DROP TO MVFR CLOUD OCCUR AT EITHER OF THE THREE
TAF SITES...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS WAS TOO LOW FOR ANY TEMPOS AT THIS POINT. AT
THIS POINT VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HRS OF THE PERIOD...
THUS VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-080-086>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM....SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
157 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY ADVECT FROM NNW TO SSE ACROSS THE
CWA AT THIS TIME WITH MORE OF A SOLID BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THAT AT THIS POINT STILL SEEMS TO BE ADVECTION OUT AND THEN SOME MORE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KY THAT GENERALLY ALSO APPEAR TO BE
ADVECTING ACROSS RATHER THAN DEVELOPING FURTHER. A RATHER SUBTLE VORT/
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SLOW DOWN THE
ADVECTION OF THE MORE SOLID BAND IN THE SOUTH OUT AND COULD LEAD TO
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CURRENTLY MORE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
WORKING IN FROM THE NNW. THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO GENERALLY REFLECT
THIS THINKING FOR SKY COVER AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT OBS TRENDS
TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
CLOUD DECK AROUND 4K AGL FEET CURRENTLY ADVECTING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
DECK WILL CLEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE EXPECT UPSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
RUC GUIDANCE. HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS PER LATEST
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
730 PM EDT...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION FROM THE NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE
IS HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS THERE WILL BE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
LOW CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA...AND LATEST NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE
SHOW CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 850 MB TO BE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEING THE RESULT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 23Z. THIS IS CURRENTLY WELL DEPICTED IN
NDFD. ONLY SOME MINOR NDFD UPDATES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT
GIVING WAY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE TIP OF FAR EAST
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A TSTORM THIS FAR WEST SO REMOVED THAT MENTION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT KEEPING A
LIGHT BREEZE BLOWING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE DRIZZLE. ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSOLVE BY
MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ACCOMPANIED BY A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 20S OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THERE IS A CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THIS
DRY AIR AND DROP LOW ENOUGH TO THREATEN A FROST OR FREEZE FOR SOME
AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND POINT TO THERE BEING JUST ENOUGH
WIND TO KEEP ANY FROST FORMATION ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE
DEEPEST VALLEYS BASICALLY NORTH AND EAST OF JKL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON TUESDAY BUT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY...VARYING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM
MOS AT ANY GIVEN POINT. TEND TO AGREE MORE WITH THE GFS NUMBERS WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY GOOD CONTINUITY THRU MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE RATHER SHARPLY ON FRIDAY WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO THE LESS EXTREME SOLUTION OF THE GFS
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE DETAILS TOWARDS THE
TAIL END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS RATHER LOW.
VORTEX CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CA/OR COAST IS EXPECTED
TO SEND A DECENT SHORT WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT TO START
THE PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTION LOOKS TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO ERN KY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL ADVERTISED IN FCST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE
AREA TO WARRANT CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN...WOULD PREFER TO GO MOSTLY QUIET
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL SETTLE FOR A GENTLE NUDGE IN THAT
DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF BENIGN
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY...AT WHICH POINT THE MODELS BEGIN PARTING
WAYS WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. REGARDLESS OF
THEIR RESPECTIVE DIFFERENCES...ANY OF THE RECENT OFFINGS FROM THE
GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS CAN BE OBTAINED.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO CONTINUE
FOLLOWING THE ABOVE NORMAL TREND...WITH TEMPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD
STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMO BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ONE NOTE OF CONCERN IS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHERE AGAIN...MODELS POINT TOWARDS RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S THROUGHOUT OUR NERN VALLEYS. HAVE STRAYED TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE
OF THE MOS LOWS FOR NOW AND...GIVEN THE EVOLVING UNCERTAINTY JUST
BEYOND THIS WINDOW...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE
NUMBERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE AND THE FIRST 6 TO 12
HOURS OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS AS A RATHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME AND MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FORM THE NORTH. AT THIS POINT ALL
OF THE CLOUDS SEEM TO GENERALLY BE ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING BY DURING THE NEXT 6 HRS OR SO MAY SLOW DOWN
ADVECTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLE LEAD TO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE BANDS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE
MOVE ACROSS THE JKL CWA. AT THIS POINT...NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SEEM TO
INDICATE PREVAILING CLOUD HEIGHTS OF THE LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY IN THE VFR
RANGE WITH SOME MVFR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A DROP TO MVFR CLOUD OCCUR AT EITHER OF THE THREE
TAF SITES...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS WAS TOO LOW FOR ANY TEMPOS AT THIS POINT. AT
THIS POINT VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HRS OF THE PERIOD...
THUS VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
650 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY...CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MOSTLY WESTERN
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
SOME CONCERNS THAT WIND ADVISORY MADE BE NEED TO BE MOVED
UP AS SOME GUSTS CLOSING CLOSE TO 45-50 MPH MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE RUC INDICATES WINDS PICKING UP LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY AS DOES THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM.
ATTM, WILL KEEP THINGS AS THEY W/WIND ADVISORY. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO LOWER MINS TONIGHT DOWN A CATEGORY W/SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE
FAR N AND W.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ON STIFF NW WINDS DID NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH
TEMP RISE THIS AFTN...SO WE HAD TO LOWER AFTN HI TEMPS AGAIN JUST
TO GET A REALISTIC HRLY TEMP TREND TO FCST LOWS POSTED ARND 6-7 AM
EDT TUE. MDTLY STRONG SFC PRES GRAD WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE F AND
SOME CLDNSS OVR NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION TNGT WILL NOT ALLOW
FOR ANY XPCTD INVSN TO FORM...SO WE WENT STRAIGHT WITH RAW NAM
FCST LOW TEMPS. WE KEPT CHC SN SHWR POPS FOR FAR NRN PTNS OF THE
FA FOR THIS EVE AS THE UPPER LOW OVR THE GASPE PNSL MOVES SE INTO
NE NB. OTHERWISE...CLDS SHOULD DECREASE OVR THE N AND CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA LATER TNGT INTO ERLY TUE MORN.
WINDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN GUSTING AS HIGH AS LOWER 4OS MPH A FEW
SITES WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE OVRNGT OVR LOW LYING AREAS...BUT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG OVR OPEN HIER TRRN AREAS. WINDS ALF...
SPCLY IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL INCREASE TO AOA 40 KT LATER
TNGT INTO TUE MORN ACROSS THE FA AS THE SFC PRES GRAD REMAINS
STRONG BETWEEN SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRES IN THE MARITIMES AND HI
PRES OVR WRN QB. THIS IN COMBO WITH MSLY SUNNY SKIES XPCTD ACROSS
ALL OF THE REGION ON TUE WILL STEEPEN SFC-1 KM LAPSE RATES...
ALLOWING POTENTIAL MIX DOWN OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ALF IN
GUSTS...BEGINNING SHORTLY AFT DAYBREAK TUE DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF
ANY ESTABLISHED BL TNGT AND CONTG TIL ABOUT SUNSET...AT WHICH
TM...WINDS ALF...SFC PRES GRAD AND LLVL INSTABILITY ALL BEGIN
DECREASING.
WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...HI TEMPS TUE AFTN WILL BE LUCKY TO HAVE A
10 TO 15 DEG F DIURNAL RISE FROM LOWS ERLY TUE MORN...RANGING FROM
MID 20S XTRM N TO MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST...MAKING TUE QUITE A
CONTRAST FROM THE RECORD WARM DAYS OF MID LAST WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY SETS UP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER BY THE OVERNIGHT CLOUDS
WILL ALREADY BY ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT AS LOW AS SOME WHAT SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING BUT NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT LOWS TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE GEM GLOBAL AND THE NAM TRACK THE SYSTEM EAST GIVING
MOST OF THE AREA A CONTINUING PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WHILE THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUICKER TO SHUNT THE
SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CIRCULATION
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. AT THIS POINT
OPTED TO PLAY THE MIDDLE GROUND AND BRING CHANCE POPS TO ALL BUT
EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD AND HOLDING
POPS JUST BELOW THE LIKELY RANGE OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.
NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL ALLOW FOR
ANY MIXED PRECIP OR RAIN TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME MIXING LIKELY ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION TO HAVE OCCURRED BY THIS
TIME MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT ANY
AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. A DRIER NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SO
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH A PD OF MVFR CLGS IN BKN-OVC TNGT AT KFVE AND
POSSIBLE AT KCAR AND KPQI.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SNOW/RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU MOST OF
TUE AFTN AS ADVERTISED OVR THE PAST DAY OR SO. ONCE IT RUNS OUT...
AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF WATERS VERY LATE TUE AFTN INTO
TUE EVE. WENT WITH AN EVEN BLEND 12Z GFS/NAM/GMOS FOR WINDS AND
A 40%/30%/30% WW3/SWAN-GFS/SWAN NAM BLEND FOR WV HTS...WHICH RAISE
WV HTS BY WW3 ALONE AN XTRA FOOT TO FOOT AND A HALF OVR OUTER MOST
WATERS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW BY LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALSO BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE ST OF ME FOREST SERVICE...WE OPTD TO
ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR ZONES 5...6 SWRD TO THE COAST. AREAS
N AND W OF THE WATCH AREA HAVE FINE FUELS DEEMED TO WET TO BE
ABLE TO DRY OUT FOR POSSIBLE IGNITION. WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
FINE FUELS HAVE BEEN DAMPENED FROM RELATIVELY LGT QPF FROM YSDY`S
PRECIP EVENT...BUT VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW MIDDAY AND AFTN RH`S
COULD DRY OUT FUELS TO HIGH DANGER RATING CATEGORY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
OF DRYING POTENTIAL BETWEEN NOW AND MIDDAY TUE...IT`S A TOSS UP
WHETHER THE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLG WRNG FOR ALL OR
PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA MIDDAY TIL ERLY EVE TUE OR TO AN SPS
HIGHLIGHTING NO BURNING OF REFUGE DURG THIS TM. A DECISION WILL
BE MADE REGARDING THESE OPTIONS LATE TUE MORN.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
401 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COLD, DRY, NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A HARD FREEZE WILL BE THE
RESULT TONIGHT. A SOUTHEAST BOUND CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING MILD
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY, SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AND AREA OF STRATOCU
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF STRONG CAA THIS MORNING. CURRENT SAT PICS ARE
SHOWING THIS AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLOUDS TO BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH MID-
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS MOVES IN. BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, EXPECT
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
COLD NORTHWEST WINDS EMANATING FROM EASTBOUND CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO -7C. HENCE CONCUR WITH
NAM AND GFS MOS THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN
CURRENT READINGS.
NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS CAN GUST TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIOD OF COLDEST TEMPS WITH MODELS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 24F CONSTITUTE A HARD FREEZE WHICH GFS
AND NAM MOS HAVE BEEN SHOWING.
HENCE HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING.
BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A RARE CONGLOMERATION OF EVENTS, FELT IT
NECESSARY TO ISSUE THE WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES.
AS WINDS ABATE TUESDAY, SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING CLOUDINESS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW MVFR STRATUS LINGERING
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WHILE A NEW BATCH HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
KPIT-KCLE. HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT SHOW ADDITIONAL MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY 09Z-14Z, AS THE
SURFACE LAYER COOLS AND SATURATES DUE TO ADVECTIVE AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.
NAM MODEL PROFILES AND GFS LAMP THEN SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING
TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES BY 16Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT, AND
EXPECT NO MORE THAN CIRRUS DAYTIME TUESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASING TODAY TO 13 KTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10
KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
224 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COLD DRY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY, THAT WILL RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE
TONIGHT. A SOUTHEASTBOUND CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
MILD SHOWERY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PER RECENT SATELLITE DATA AND HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TODAY.
COLD NORTHWEST WINDS EMANATING FROM EASTBOUND CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO 7C. HENCE CONCUR WITH
NAM AND GFS MOS THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN
CURRENT READINGS.
NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS CAN GUST TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIOD OF COLDEST TEMPS WITH MODELS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 24F CONSTITUTE A HARD FREEZE WHICH GFS
AND NAM MOS HAVE BEEN SHOWING.
HENCE HAVE MAINTAINED A FREEZE WATCH. WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A
FREEZE WARNING WITH 4 AM ISSUANCE.
AS WINDS ABATE TUESDAY, SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING CLOUDINESS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW MVFR STRATUS LINGERING
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WHILE A NEW BATCH HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
KPIT-KCLE. HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT SHOW ADDITIONAL MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY 09Z-14Z, AS THE
SURFACE LAYER COOLS AND SATURATES DUE TO ADVECTIVE AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.
NAM MODEL PROFILES AND GFS LAMP THEN SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING
TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES BY 16Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT, AND
EXPECT NO MORE THAN CIRRUS DAYTIME TUESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASING TODAY TO 13 KTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10
KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-022.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
843 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHRTWV/STACKED LO MOVING ENEWD THRU NRN MN ON TOP OF MEAN RDG
OVER THE SE CONUS. PCPN/WARM CONVEYOR BELT WELL E OF THE LO HAS
MOVED E OF THE CWA...BUT LO CLDS LINGER IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST LYR
ASSOCIATED WITH SHARP WAD INVRN DEPICTED ON THE 12Z RAOBS. SKIES ARE
MOCLR OVER MN UNDER THE DRY SLOT/JET SURGE REGION OF THE LO...AND
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S IN THAT AREA. DESPITE
THIS SHARP WAD STABILITY...GUSTY S WINDS UP TO 50 MPH UNDER SHARP
PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE LO AND RETREATING HI PRES OVER SE ONTARIO
HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE...PROMPTING ISSUANCE
OF WIND ADVY. IN FACT...THE 12Z MPX RAOB INDICATED A WIND SPEED OF
61KTS AT 3K FT AGL WITHIN THE STABLE INVRN LYR. THE S WIND OFF THE
RELATIVELY CHILLY LK MI WATERS HAVE ENHANCED THE LLVL STABILITY AND
PREVENTED THE WINDS IN THAT AREA FM BEING AS STRONG AS NEAR LK SUP.
FARTHER TO THE W...DEEP WRAP ARND MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z BISMARCK
RAOB IS MOVING INTO NW NW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINDS/CLD TRENDS AND
PSBL WRAP ARND -SHRA AS MN LO MOVES ACRS NRN LK SUP AND INTO SE
ONTARIO ON WED.
TNGT...SHRTWV/CLOSED LO IN MN ARE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SE ONTARIO
JUST NE OF THE SAULT BY 12Z WED. AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY WITH THE APRCH OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG. SO WL LET THE GOING WIND ADVY
EXPIRE AT 21Z AS SCHEDULED. ALTHOUGH THE EARLY EVNG WL BE PCPN FREE
FOR THE MOST PART UNDER DRY SLOT...MORE CLDS/SCT -SHRA WL ARRIVE FM
THE W AS THE WRAP ARND MSTR ACCOMPANYING THE EWARD MOVING LO PRES
SLIDES INTO THE UPR LKS. STRONG W H925 WINDS UP TO 40-50 KTS ON THE
WRN FLANK OF THE LO WL ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -2C OR -3C OVER THE W BY 12Z...BUT FCST WBLB
ZERO HGT WELL ABV 1K FT SUGS THE PCPN WL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF RA EXCEPT OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W LATE. EXPECT STRONG W
WINDS TO IMPACT THE W LATE AS WELL...WITH WIND GUSTS APRCHG ADVY LVL
AGAIN OVER THE FAR W S OF CMX WHERE THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS
COINCIDES WITH THE INCOMING H85 THERMAL TROF. CONSIDERED EXTENDING
WIND ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW...BUT AXIS OF STRONGER WINDS POINTING
TOWARD THIS EXPOSED AREA DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THERMAL TROFFING/
REDUCED STABILITY THAT WOULD ENHANCE MIXING.
WED...AS THE CLOSED LO TO THE E MOVES FARTHER AWAY...SFC HI PRES RDG
WL BLD INTO THE AREA UNDER RISING H5 AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG IN
THE PLAINS. MRNG -SHRA...MIXED WITH SN PER LOWER WBLB ZERO HGTS AS
H85 TEMPS FALL TO ARND -5C...MAINLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OVER THE
NRN TIER WL DIMINISH WITH TIME UNDER NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/MID LVL
DRYING AND GRDLY MORE ACYC FLOW... BUT FCST SDNGS SUG PLENTY OF LO
CLD WL LINGER...SO TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS. AS THE LO MOVES AWAY AND HI PRES MOVES TOWARD THE AREA...THE
WINDS WL DIMINISH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
WED NIGHT...H925 TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH LK INSTABILITY
TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED
BY VEERING N TO NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE NRLY FAVORED LOCATIONS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IT OVERNIGHT. DID HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHTS LONGER FOR THE
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN NCNTRL UPPER MI...ALTHOUGH THE LOWERING
INVERSION WILL LIMIT CLOUD DEPTH.
THURS SHOULD BE A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER UPPER MI. NE WINDS WILL PULL DRIER AIR INTO
UPPER MI AND LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY OVER THE EAST HALF. FARTHER
WEST...MID CLOUDS WILL BE WORKING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST INTERIOR AWAY FROM
THE LK SUPERIOR INFLUENCE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING AND
HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE...LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. DEWPOINTS ARE THE
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST...AS MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH ML DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO OVER THE ERN CWA. WILL DROP TD VALUES AGAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OVER THE ERN CWA INTO THE UPPER TEENS. MAY NEED TO DROP THEM EVEN
MORE...SINCE MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS VERIFIED FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY.
THURS NIGHT...CLEAR INITIALLY AND WITH THE LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ERN
CWA...SHOULD SEE A QUICK FALL IN TEMPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE THE
TEMPS TO RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TRIED TO SHOW A QUICK DROP IN
THE EVENING...BUT UNSURE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WITH LIMITED
WINDS AND MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS...SO HAVE HELD THEM STEADY. SHOWERS
ENTERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ASSOCIATED WITH H850-700 WAA IN THE EVENING...WHICH THEN
FOCUSES FARTHER S THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH
THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY PUSH E. PTYPE IS TRICKY SINCE IT
WILL BE FALLING AS SNOW...BUT THEN AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT 0C LOOKS
TO SETUP FROM 2-6KFT BEFORE NEAR SFC TEMPS BELOW 2KFT WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS CREATES A SNOW/RAIN MIX SCENARIO AND SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE.
THUS...WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER UPPER MI...WITH BETTER SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NE HALF.
FRI...MODELS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT ON THE BULK OF THE PCPN GOING
S OF THE CWA WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENING AS IT TRIES TO PUSH
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUSING OF THE BETTER H850-700 WAA
FARTHER SE OVER LK MI AND LOWER MI. THEREFORE...HAVE A DIMINISHING
TREND OVER THE ERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LLVL
DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BAY HIGH. SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN
THE MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING WOULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING PCPN
TO RAIN.
EXTENDED /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC FOLLOWED A 00Z GFS/ECMWF ENS MEAN FOR DAYS 5-7...SINCE THERE IS
DECENT CONSISTENCY IN THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE WRN CONUS DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LKS FOR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...ALONG WITH H850-700 Q-VECTOR
CONV...SO THINK OVERALL PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS SHIFTING INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. DETERMINISTIC RUNS STILL DIFFERING IN THE
INTENSITY/AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH...WITH THE 00Z GFS MUCH DEEPER
AND THE 00Z ECMWF BROADER AND OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. 12Z GFS
HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF AND WILL FOLLOW THE
HPC SOLN AND HAVE THE BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS ON SUN
SLIDING SE THROUGH THE UPPER MISS VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LKS THROUGH
TUES. BEFORE THAT...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LKS OR SRN ONTARIO...WHICH WOULD HAVE A LARGE AFFECT ON
HIGHS. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLNS GIVE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS FOR
SUN...AS H850 TEMPS RANGE FROM 7-14C. MAY NOT MIX QUITE THAT
HIGH...BUT MIXING TO H900 WOULD STILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S. SO
HAVE BUMPED UP THE EXISTING FORECAST A FEW DEGREES.
HEADING INTO SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUES...AREA WILL BE ON THE
NRN FRINGES OF THE SFC LOW FEATURES. IF THE LOW TRENDS TOWARDS THE
00Z GFS...WILL LIKELY BE DRY...BUT IF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ARE
CORRECT WE/LL HAVE BETTER SHOT OF SEEING PCPN. DON/T SEE ANY REASON
TO GO ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES AND WILL KEEP THE PCPN AS
RAIN WITH THE ABUNDANT WARM AIR REMAINING OVER THE AREA.
AS THIS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...COULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 843 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
STRONG WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL KICK
IN LATER THIS EVENING AT KIWD AND KCMX WITH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL
IFR RANGE ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
KIWD AND KCMX. IT MAY GET COLD ENOUGH AT KIWD FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX
IN WITH THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL
ALSO MOVE INTO KSAW LATE TONIGHT BUT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFT 12Z WED WHEN WINDS VEER NW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE...ESPECIALLY FM THE WEST LATE WED AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM NRN ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
ALTHOUGH THE GOING S GALES OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP WILL DIMINISH
BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LO PRES IN MN/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT
ARRIVE...A STRONGER W TO NW WIND WILL REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS THE
LO MOVES TO THE E ACROSS LAKE SUP...WITH MORE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
MAINLY THE W AND NCENTRAL AT TIMES INTO WED MORNING WHEN THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR AS WELL WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED MIXING. THE APPROACH
OF A HI PRES RIDGE AND WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS BY WED AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WED NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
DIMINISHING WINDS AS THEY BACK TO THE NE. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY
BELOW 20KTS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ241-242-
263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC/SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPRAWLING UPR RDG
OVER CNTRL NAMERICA BTWN TROFS OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER
OFF THE W COAST. HUDSON BAY HI PRES UNDER THE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF
BTWN THE RDG AND ERN TROF AS WELL AS VERY DRY AIRMASS DEPICTED ON
THE 12Z INL AND GRB RAOBS /12Z H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION WAS 43C AT INL/
ARE BRINGING A TRANQUIL BUT MORE SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY TO UPR MI.
BUT MORE CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHARP WARM FNT ATTENDANT TO DVLPG
LO PRES IN THE NW HI PLAINS ARE SPREADING FM MN/NW WI TOWARD IWD.
THIS SFC LO IS ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE DESERT SW. THE WARM FNT SEPARATES VERY WARM
AIRMASS IN THE SRN PLAINS WITH 12Z H85 TEMP AS HI AS 20C AT DODGE
CITY KS FM CHILLY AIRMASS IN THE GRT LKS/H85 TEMPS OF -8C AT YPL AND
APX. SOME -SHRASN ARE FALLING OVER PARTS OF MN/NW WI UNDER THE
THICKER CLDS/ SHARPER H85-7 FGEN AS 12Z MPX RAOB SHOWS A SATURATED
LYR FM H85-5. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LTG STRIKES UNDER THIS BAND OF
SHRA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO TUE ARE MIXED PCPN/ICING POTENTIAL/
GOING FZRA ADVY ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WARM FNT...THEN SHRA CHCS ON
TUE WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOT.
TNGT...AS HI PRES/COLD DRY AIRMASS IN ONTARIO THIS AFTN RETREAT INTO
QUEBEC AND SHRTWV IN THE DESERT SW SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS
TNGT IN RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW...ATTENDANT WARM FNT/CLD BAND TO
THE SW WL CLOSE IN ON UPR MI. THE COMBINATION OF VIGOROUS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/MID LVL MOISTENING ACCOMPANYING STRENGHTENING SSW FLOW/H925
WINDS INCRSG TO 50KTS...INCRSG H4-2 DVGC...AND H85-7 FGEN WL ALLOW
FOR PCPN TO BREAK OUT W-E TOWARD ERY ARND 12Z DESPITE LINGERING LLVL
DRY AIR. SINCE THE MID LVLS MOISTEN AND DYNAMICS ARRIVE BEFORE THE
LLVLS WARM/MOISTEN...FCST SDNGS INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
FZRA/SLEET WITH WBLB TEMPS AS LO AS -5C TO -7C IN THE SUB H85 LYR
UNDER THE FGEN PCPN BAND. USED A NON DIURNAL TOOL FOR TEMPS WITH MIN
READINGS RELATIVELY EARLY...THEN TEMPS RISING LATER WITH INCRSG
WIND/WAD. EVAPORATE COOLING NEAR THE SFC WL TEND TO SLOW THE RISE IN
AREAS EXPERIENCING PCPN. INCLUDED MENTION OF TS W OF THE AXIS OF MAX
FGEN WITH H8-5 LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC ENHANCED BY THE
WAD/VIGOROUS DYNAMICS.
TUE...SHRTWV/OCCLUDED LO ARE FCST TO MOVE TO JUST NW OF THUNDER BAY
ONTARIO BY 00Z WED...WITH ACCOMPANYING DRY SLOT ON ITS SE FLANK
IMPACTING THE CWA. AFT AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/WAD/H85-7 FGEN/H4-2 DVGC
EXIT THE E BY 18Z...ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA AS FCST SDNGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MID LVL DRYING/
CAPPING DVLPG AFT THE EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMICS. GUSTY WINDS
WL DVLP WITH LLVL WARMING/DESTABILIZATION MIXING OUT THE HIER
MOMENTUM ABV INITIAL SHARP INVRN. BEST CHC FOR CLRG WL BE OVER THE
FAR W FM IWD-ONTONAGON WITH DOWNSLOPING S WIND. MIXING TO H85 ON
NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS INDICATE MAX TEMPS MAY REACH 60 IN THIS AREA.
LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LK MI WL BE MUCH COOLER WITH FLOW OFF CHILLY
WATERS MAINTAINING HIER STABILITY/TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE.
AS FOR HEADLINES...SUSPECT MODEL QPF THAT WOULD INDICATE NEED FOR AN
ICE STORM WARNING IS A BIT TOO HI CONSIDERING THE STEADY EWD
MOVEMENT FCST OF THE FGEN/UPR DVGC CORE AND LINGERING LLVL DRY
AIR...SO ADVY SHOULD COVER THE FRZG PCPN POTENTIAL WITH ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED ABOUT 0.10 INCH. RECENT WARM SOILS
ALSO WL TEND TO LIMIT ICE ACCUM POTENTIAL. TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE
HEADLINE A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN INTO THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES. ALSO EXPANDED THE FZRA HEADLINE TO THE E EXCEPT
FOR MNM COUNTY...WHICH WL BE FARTHEST S OF THE SHARPER DYNAMICS AND
PROBABLY SEE LESS PCPN/ICING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
995MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AT 00Z AND
WILL SLIDE E ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ON TUES NIGHT. BULK OF INITIAL PCPN
WILL HAVE EXITED THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAIN
AREA OF PCPN THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OVER NE LK SUPERIOR...BUT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF UPPER MI THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE
PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN...DUE TO THE LOW LLVL WARM AIR SURGING N
THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS COLD AIR ARRIVES OVER
THE WEST COULD SEE THE RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW OVER THE FAR WEST NEAR
DAYBREAK. WITH THE LLVL WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FOLLOWED A
NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE ON TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...VALUES REACHING THE MID-UPPER 40S.
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED MORNING AND LEAD TO
FALLING H850 TEMPS AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NNW. WITH H850 TEMPS
FALLING FROM 1-2C AT 12Z WED TO -4 TO -6C BY 00Z THURS SHOULD SEE
LK ENHANCED SHOWERS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE PRESENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
PEAKED THE POPS OVER THE WEST DURING THAT TIME FRAME...THEN
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE DAY AS DRY AIR STARTS TO ERRODE THE PCPN
FROM THE NW.
PCPN TYPE IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WED. NAM SHOWING CLOUD TOP IS
AROUND -8 TO -10C SO PCPN START AS SNOW IN THE CLOUDS...BUT GFS IS
WARMER WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS AROUND -5C AND MAINLY RAIN. HAVE
FOLLOWED A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A THE PCPN STARTING AT
SNOW. THE LLVL WARM LAYER WILL BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE FACTOR...AS
IT WILL TRY TO MELT THE PCPN BEFORE IT HITS THE SFC. USED A
COMBINATION OF SFC TEMPS AND WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL ON WED...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING THE SNOW
FIRST AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM N TO S THROUGH
THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING BUT OVERALL PCPN SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
THEN. NON DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AGAIN ON WED...HIGHS IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTN THEN FALLING.
LK ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTN/EVENING...AS DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVE WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BUT H900 MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. WITH H900 TEMPS AROUND
-6.5C...SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT LK INSTABILITY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING
AS WINDS VEER TO THE NE ON WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. WILL TRY
TO HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...AS
THEY HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE SIMILAR FEATURE YESTERDAY. ONCE
THE LLVL MOISTURE DEPARTS OR IS MIXED OUT THURS MORNING...LOOKS TO
BE A NICE DAY ON THURS WITH THE AREA UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
COULD SEE THURS BEING VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND TRYING TO PULL DRIER AIR INTO THE
ERN CWA. WILL LOWER DEWPOINT VALUES 5-7 DEGREES FROM THE GOING
MID 20S OVER THE EAST...AS MODEL MIXED TD VALUES INDICATE SINGLE
DIGIT VALUES. MAY NEED TO DROP FURTHER IF TREND CONTINUES.
EXTENDED /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRI...TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE. 00-12Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF DIFFERING ON THE THIS SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES...SO HAVE CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WRN
CWA IN THE MORNING AND THEN EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS WHILE HEADING E IN THE AFTN.
WEAK UPPER AND SFC RIDGING PUSHES IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD
TO A DRY PERIOD...BEFORE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND.
00-12Z ECMWF/GEM/GFS/UKMET RUNS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS
WAVE...IN TIMING/LOCATION/STRENGTH. CONSENSUS IDEA IS THAT IT WILL
PUSH ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER IN THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI
NIGHT...THEN SLIDE JUST N OF LK SUPERIOR ON SAT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE AREA...BUT THE GEM IS THE FARTHEST
S AND STRONGER WITH THE LOW CENTER AND PUSHES IT ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE E ON SAT NIGHT...LEADING TO WEAK RIDGING AGAIN
ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT BEFORE NEXT WAVE SLIDES IN ON MON. OUT OF THE
THREE WAVES IN THE EXTENDED...THE MONDAY FEATURE LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST POTENT AND AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NCNTRL U.S. WILL MENTION
CHANCES ON MON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
GRADUAL WARMING HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST THIS EVNG AS VERY DRY AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES IN ONTARIO DOMINATES. THICKER MID CLDS/SOME
MIXED PCPN IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT WL ARRIVE TNGT...BUT LINGERING
LLVL DRY AIR WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIG/VSBY. THIS LLVL
DRY AIR WL LIKELY CAUSE SOME -FZRA...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE UPSLOPE
SSE WIND WL MAINTAIN LOWER TEMPS LONGER. AS THE LLVL S WIND
INTENSIFIES TNGT AHEAD OF THE APRCHG WARM FNT...LLWS IS LIKELY TO
IMPACT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX TO THE SFC ON
TUE FOLLOWING SOME LLVL WARMING/DESTABILIZATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BETWEEN A DEEPENING LO PRES SYSTEM MOVING E FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND RETREATING HI PRES IN SE CANADA...EXPECT INCREASING SSE WINDS TO
REACH GALE FORCE AND UP TO 40 KTS ON TUE OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FAVORED FOR STRONGER S WINDS DESPITE HI STABILITY OVER THE
RELATIVELY CHILLY LAKE WATERS.
AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUES NIGHT AND EXITS TO
THE E ON WED...WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND GUST TO 30KTS TUES
NIGHT. MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
FROM REACHING THE SFC...SO DON/T THINK WE WILL SEE ANY GALES. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN WED AFTN AND NIGHT WILL DIMINISH THE
WINDS BELOW 20KTS WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING THROUGH THURS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...BUT THE ESE WINDS
SHOULD STAY BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10
AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ004-005-010-011-084.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-
007-013-014-085.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-
249-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ250-251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1218 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY...AS THE H875 INVERSION
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO ERRODE. AWAY FROM THE COOLING OFF LK
SUPERIOR...THE CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT...BUT STILL HAVE A DECENT
SWATH OF CLOUDS OVER SRN ONTARIO NEAR THUNDER BAY.
MEANWHILE...1033MB SFC HIGH JUST NE OF LK WINNIPEG AND AN
ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE HAS BEEN WORKING INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR. FARTHER
SW...DEVELOPING LOW OVER WYOMING AS LED TO SOME MID LVL WAA AND
CLOUDS OVER SD AND SRN MN. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY S OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
BRINGS DRIER MID LVL AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LKS.
ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE CLOUDS NEAR/OVER LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE
WAY THEY HAVE HUNG IN TODAY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ERN LK...FEELING
IS THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THEM HANGING AROUND FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LK INSTABILITY...AS H950-925
TEMPS ARE AROUND -9C AND LK TEMPS AROUND 3-4C. QUESTION WILL BE IF
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME WITH THIS MOISTURE AND MOST HAVE THE MOISTURE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING WITH THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH THE SFC
RIDGE. BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF THE CLOUDS OVER SRN ONTARIO AND
CNTRL/ERN LK SUPERIOR CREATES CONCERN ON IT COMPLETELY DIMINISHING.
HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUDS TO PARTLY CLOUDY NEAR LK SUPERIOR FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS TO SUBSIDENCE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND
DECREASING MOISTURE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
DIMINISH THEM. THAT BEING SAID...COULD EASILY SEE THE MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND REMAINING WITH THE LK
INSTABILITY. DID TRY TO SHOW SOME MOVEMENT TO THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AS H925 WINDS VEER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD FOCUS THE CLOUDS
OVER THE N THEN NE FAVORED LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...13-16Z RUC RUNS
TRY TO DEVELOP LK ENHANCED PCPN OVER CNTRL/ERN LK SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING AND THEN DROP IT INTO UPPER MI. THE ONLY OTHER HIRES MODEL
TO MENTION IT WAS THE REGIONAL GEM. WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
TODAY DEVELOPMENT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISING...BUT WITH CONCERNS ON AMNT
OF MOISTURE PRESENT DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT.
LOWS TONIGHT HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL DUE TO SEVERAL INFLUENCES.
NEAR LK SUPERIOR...THE CLOUDS/WIND WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO CREATES UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE STUCK WITH A
MIDDLE GROUND IN THE UPPER 20S. FARTHER INLAND...TEMPS COULD REALLY
TANK ONCE THE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IF SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. PWATS AROUND 0.25IN OR ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
LIGHT WINDS CREATES A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND EXPECT
TEMPS TO FALL NEAR 20. IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN AWAY...COULD SEE VALUES
EVEN COLDER INTO THE TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COLD SPOTS.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SW OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE
SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE
DAY...AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN MONTANA/WYOMING. OTHER THAN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LK CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING UNDER H700 WAA MON AFTN OVER
MN AND NW WI...AND WILL APPROACH THE FAR WRN CWA LATE IN THE AFTN.
COOL NRLY FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MIXING DOWN NEAR THE LK
SHORE AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S. FARTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE LK
INFLUENCE...MIXING TOWARDS H850 TEMPS OF -4C WEST AND -9C EAST WILL
PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BORDER.
AS FOR DEWPOINTS...MODEL MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAND CWA. THIS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO HAVE ADJUSTED GOING
VALUES DOWN A TOUCH AWAY FROM THE MOISTENING AFFECTS OF LK
SUPERIOR. THIS LEADS TO RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH
A FEW MID-LOWER 20S OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KTS OR
LESS AND ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...EXPECT FIRE WX CONCERNS
TO BE LIMITED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
AND WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WAA AND 295K- 305K
ISENTROPIC LIFT (NOSE OF 850-800MB WINDS 50-55KT) WILL SUPPORT A BAND
OF PCPN THROUGH THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
VERY STRONG WAA IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER PUSHING WARM NOSE TEMPS TO
AROUND 5C SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY LIQUID PCPN. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND WAA OVER THE FAR WEST EXPECT THAT SFC TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ENOUGH
BY THE ONSET OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN AS RAIN. HOWEVER...OVER INTERIOR
WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
MAY LINGER AS THE PCPN MOVES IN. EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET OF
PCPN WILL ALSO DELAY LOW LEVEL WARMING. WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AFTER THE LONG WARM SPELL...THERE IS ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE IF ANY WOULD ACCUMULATE. SO...MENTIONED
BOTH RA/FZRA FOR MOST OF THE THE CWA AND HIGHLIGHTED THE HAZARD IN A
PORTION OF THE SPS. INSTABILITY FOR TSRA LOOKS MARGINAL...BUT SOME
ELEVATED CAPE INTO EDING INTO THE CWA SUPPORTS AT LEAST CONTINUED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS THE DRY SLOT SPREADS ACROSS THE ARA LATE TUE
INTO TUE EVENING...PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR
ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE MID LEVEL
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH UPPER MI SOME ADDITIONAL WRAP-AROUND LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WED MORNNG. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
WED AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE REGION.
SO...ONLY LOW END POPS FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PCPN.
THU-SUN...HIGH PRES SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA THU WITH COOL DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SHRTWV AND PCPN CHANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY EVEN THOUGH CONFIDECNE IN DETAILS IS LOW. A BLOCKING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH WITH A SFC HUDSON BAY HIGH EXTENDEDING INTO THE AREA WILL
LIMIT PCPN CHANCES TO LOWER END POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS STRATOCU OFF THE LAKE. WITH LOW-LEVEL
WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY...KSAW WILL BE FAVORED
FOR BKN MVFR CIGS ABOVE 2000FT...ESPECIALLY WITH STRATOCU E AND NE
OF LAKE SUPERIOR PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT
AT TIMES. EXPECT CLOUDS AT KSAW TO CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. AT
KCMX/KIWD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN SCT STRATOCU AT KCMX OVERNIGHT WITH UNFAVORABLE WIND DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW...AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD DOMINATE AT KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN THE VEERING WINDS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS E ON MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NRN PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST AND ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS ON TUESDAY OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION..
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING FEATURE OF INTEREST...
SHORTWAVE TROF...CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MODELS IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS WAVE WILL LIFT QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ATTENDANT SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN WY WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHT FALLS DROP 16DAM. INCOMING FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE THUNDER SOMETIME
AFTER 06Z. HIRES WRF AND RUC13 ARE ADVERTISING MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH DECENT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BNDRY/SFC TROF WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. ON TUESDAY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...
PARTICULARLY NORTH. FIRE WEATHER ISSUE COMING TO PLAY THEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS COMBINATION OF WIND AND MIXING DRIVES DEW POINTS/RH
DOWN CLOSE TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. FOCUS FOR THUNDER THEN
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES/INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ALONG THE
NEB/KS BORDER...THEN RE-ORIENTS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CWA. AS FOR DAY 4-7...AT THIS POINT NOT INCLINED TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT GFS/ECM
DIFFERENCES PER LATEST RUN. OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING LIKE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING AROUND 20 DEG ABOVE NORM HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. INITIALLY...WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 150-170 DEGREES SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 28KTS...
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 38KTS. SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTS AT KLNK/KOMA BY
ABOUT 27/00Z. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ALSO BRING A WIND
SHIFT...ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AS
WELL. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE AT KLNK/KOMA...IN THE 07Z-11Z
PERIOD. WINDS BECOME WEST AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY 27/15Z.
DEWALD
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-053-066-067-078-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-033-034-
043>045-050>053-065-066-078.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
016>018-030>032-042.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. MAIN CONCERNS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. INITIALLY...WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 150-170 DEGREES SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 28KTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 38KTS. SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTS AT KLNK/KOMA BY
ABOUT 27/00Z. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ALSO BRING A WIND
SHIFT...ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AS
WELL. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE AT KLNK/KOMA...IN THE 07Z-11Z
PERIOD. WINDS BECOME WEST AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY 27/15Z.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING IN WESTERN IOWA. ALSO EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ONE MORE
TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER EAST...INTO THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA METRO
AREAS AS THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE JUST ON THE EDGE OF THE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS.
DEWALD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AS
SHOWERS FINALLY HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM AROUND BLAIR TO
PLATTSMOUTH TO NEBRASKA CITY. SO FAR...NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED...BUT STILL THINK A FEW STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE...AND KEPT
ISOLATED WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
MAYES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS IS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS PROGGED TO TAKE A
TRACK NEWD TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
TUE. AHEAD OF THE STRONG SYSTEM LOW LEVEL WAA IS CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS WITH THE
MOISTURE ATTM...AND THUS A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDC
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC THIS MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AROUND 850
MB AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CIN HOLDING BACK THE CONVECTION.
WE FEEL THIS TREND WILL CONT TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS B/W 12-15Z OVER THE CNTRL AND SERN CWA FOR ANYTHING
ISO THAT MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE FA. WINDS AT 925 (850) MB INCREASE TO 40 (55) KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOME OF
THIS SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE SURFACE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MIXING THOUGH...AND WE WOULD FEEL BETTER WITH A DUE SOUTH OR
SW WIND...SO A WIND ADVRY IS NO SLAM DUNK...BUT WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING TO 925 MB WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SITES MEET
CRITERIA THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG HOURS. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY.
THE DRY LINE STILL LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE WRN HI PLAINS TODAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. SOME POSITIVE CAPE
IS INDICATED NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT CIN IS SIGNIFICANT AND WITH
MUCH OF THE FORCING GOING INTO SODAK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NEB AREA LOOKS PRETTY LOW...AND ESPECIALLY ANYTHING THAT WOULD
WORK INTO OUR FA. THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SCHC FOR THIS EVNG IN
THE NW. A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACTUALLY COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ERN FA AS BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE
ADVANCING PAC CDFNT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONT SOME
CHC POPS IN THE E AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY TUES MRNG WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
EXPECTED FOR TUE/WED.
THE SURFACE FNT STILL LOOKS TO HANG UP OVER MO/KS ON TUE/WED AND
THIS WILL START TO RETREAT NWD WED NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THU
(ALTHOUGH I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO
NEB). AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHRTWV PROGGED FOR
THU NIGHT SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY WORK AROUND THE FNT AND INTO
CNTRL NEB BY LATE THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THU...THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE PAST FRI.
BOUSTEAD
FIRE WEATHER...
IN THE POST FRONT AIRMASS ON TUES THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OR HIGHER WILL
LEAD TO DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY IN THE
CNTRL AND WRN CWA. DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES
WITH THE MIXING ON TUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 70S. THIS WILL CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF RH BELOW 20
PERCENT DURING THE AFTN ON TUES. WITH STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SD...SFC WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED ABOVE 15 KT WITH
GUSTS WELL OVER 25 KT. THIS ALL SHOULD COMBINED FOR A DANGEROUS
FIRE WX DAY...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP NICELY AROUND
THE AREA...AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUES FOR
A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.
BOUSTEAD/MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>067-078-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-033-034-
043>045-050>053-065-066-078.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
016>018-030>032-042.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1039 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING IN WESTERN IOWA. ALSO EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ONE MORE
TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER EAST...INTO THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA METRO
AREAS AS THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE JUST ON THE EDGE OF THE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AS
SHOWERS FINALLY HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM AROUND BLAIR TO
PLATTSMOUTH TO NEBRASKA CITY. SO FAR...NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED...BUT STILL THINK A FEW STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE...AND KEPT
ISOLATED WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
MAYES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
SOME MID-LEVEL CIGS WILL INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT ALL SITES. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH KOMA THE
MOST LIKELY SITE TO BE AFFECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON BOTH
OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE THOUGH...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING UP TO
30-35KT AT KOMA/KLNK...AND UP TO AROUND 35-40KT AT KOFK. SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONT BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
WESTERLY...AFFECTING KOFK EARLIEST...AND KOMA/KLNK AT THE END OF
THE TAF CYCLE OR JUST OUTSIDE OF IT.
MAYES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS IS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS PROGGED TO TAKE A
TRACK NEWD TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
TUE. AHEAD OF THE STRONG SYSTEM LOW LEVEL WAA IS CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS WITH THE
MOISTURE ATTM...AND THUS A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDC
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC THIS MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AROUND 850
MB AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CIN HOLDING BACK THE CONVECTION.
WE FEEL THIS TREND WILL CONT TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS B/W 12-15Z OVER THE CNTRL AND SERN CWA FOR ANYTHING
ISO THAT MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE FA. WINDS AT 925 (850) MB INCREASE TO 40 (55) KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOME OF
THIS SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE SURFACE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MIXING THOUGH...AND WE WOULD FEEL BETTER WITH A DUE SOUTH OR
SW WIND...SO A WIND ADVRY IS NO SLAM DUNK...BUT WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING TO 925 MB WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SITES MEET
CRITERIA THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG HOURS. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY.
THE DRY LINE STILL LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE WRN HI PLAINS TODAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. SOME POSITIVE CAPE
IS INDICATED NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT CIN IS SIGNIFICANT AND WITH
MUCH OF THE FORCING GOING INTO SODAK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NEB AREA LOOKS PRETTY LOW...AND ESPECIALLY ANYTHING THAT WOULD
WORK INTO OUR FA. THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SCHC FOR THIS EVNG IN
THE NW. A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACTUALLY COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ERN FA AS BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE
ADVANCING PAC CDFNT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONT SOME
CHC POPS IN THE E AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY TUES MRNG WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
EXPECTED FOR TUE/WED.
THE SURFACE FNT STILL LOOKS TO HANG UP OVER MO/KS ON TUE/WED AND
THIS WILL START TO RETREAT NWD WED NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THU
(ALTHOUGH I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO
NEB). AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHRTWV PROGGED FOR
THU NIGHT SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY WORK AROUND THE FNT AND INTO
CNTRL NEB BY LATE THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THU...THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE PAST FRI.
BOUSTEAD
FIRE WEATHER...
IN THE POST FRONT AIRMASS ON TUES THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OR HIGHER WILL
LEAD TO DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY IN THE
CNTRL AND WRN CWA. DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES
WITH THE MIXING ON TUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 70S. THIS WILL CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF RH BELOW 20
PERCENT DURING THE AFTN ON TUES. WITH STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SD...SFC WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED ABOVE 15 KT WITH
GUSTS WELL OVER 25 KT. THIS ALL SHOULD COMBINED FOR A DANGEROUS
FIRE WX DAY...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP NICELY AROUND
THE AREA...AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUES FOR
A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.
BOUSTEAD/MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>067-078-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-033-034-
043>045-050>053-065-066-078.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
016>018-030>032-042.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
754 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AS
SHOWERS FINALLY HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM AROUND BLAIR TO
PLATTSMOUTH TO NEBRASKA CITY. SO FAR...NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED...BUT STILL THINK A FEW STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE...AND KEPT
ISOLATED WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
MAYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
SOME MID-LEVEL CIGS WILL INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT ALL SITES. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH KOMA THE
MOST LIKELY SITE TO BE AFFECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON BOTH
OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE THOUGH...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING UP TO
30-35KT AT KOMA/KLNK...AND UP TO AROUND 35-40KT AT KOFK. SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONT BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
WESTERLY...AFFECTING KOFK EARLIEST...AND KOMA/KLNK AT THE END OF
THE TAF CYCLE OR JUST OUTSIDE OF IT.
MAYES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS IS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS PROGGED TO TAKE A
TRACK NEWD TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
TUE. AHEAD OF THE STRONG SYSTEM LOW LEVEL WAA IS CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS WITH THE
MOISTURE ATTM...AND THUS A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDC
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC THIS MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AROUND 850
MB AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CIN HOLDING BACK THE CONVECTION.
WE FEEL THIS TREND WILL CONT TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS B/W 12-15Z OVER THE CNTRL AND SERN CWA FOR ANYTHING
ISO THAT MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE FA. WINDS AT 925 (850) MB INCREASE TO 40 (55) KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOME OF
THIS SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE SURFACE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MIXING THOUGH...AND WE WOULD FEEL BETTER WITH A DUE SOUTH OR
SW WIND...SO A WIND ADVRY IS NO SLAM DUNK...BUT WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING TO 925 MB WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SITES MEET
CRITERIA THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG HOURS. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY.
THE DRY LINE STILL LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE WRN HI PLAINS TODAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. SOME POSITIVE CAPE
IS INDICATED NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT CIN IS SIGNIFICANT AND WITH
MUCH OF THE FORCING GOING INTO SODAK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NEB AREA LOOKS PRETTY LOW...AND ESPECIALLY ANYTHING THAT WOULD
WORK INTO OUR FA. THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SCHC FOR THIS EVNG IN
THE NW. A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACTUALLY COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ERN FA AS BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE
ADVANCING PAC CDFNT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONT SOME
CHC POPS IN THE E AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY TUES MRNG WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
EXPECTED FOR TUE/WED.
THE SURFACE FNT STILL LOOKS TO HANG UP OVER MO/KS ON TUE/WED AND
THIS WILL START TO RETREAT NWD WED NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THU
(ALTHOUGH I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO
NEB). AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHRTWV PROGGED FOR
THU NIGHT SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY WORK AROUND THE FNT AND INTO
CNTRL NEB BY LATE THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THU...THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE PAST FRI.
BOUSTEAD
FIRE WEATHER...
IN THE POST FRONT AIRMASS ON TUES THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OR HIGHER WILL
LEAD TO DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY IN THE
CNTRL AND WRN CWA. DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES
WITH THE MIXING ON TUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 70S. THIS WILL CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF RH BELOW 20
PERCENT DURING THE AFTN ON TUES. WITH STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SD...SFC WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED ABOVE 15 KT WITH
GUSTS WELL OVER 25 KT. THIS ALL SHOULD COMBINED FOR A DANGEROUS
FIRE WX DAY...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP NICELY AROUND
THE AREA...AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUES FOR
A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.
BOUSTEAD/MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>067-078-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ015-033-043-044-050-051-065-078.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
646 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
SOME MID-LEVEL CIGS WILL INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT ALL SITES. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH KOMA THE
MOST LIKELY SITE TO BE AFFECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON BOTH
OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE THOUGH...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING UP TO
30-35KT AT KOMA/KLNK...AND UP TO AROUND 35-40KT AT KOFK. SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONT BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
WESTERLY...AFFECTING KOFK EARLIEST...AND KOMA/KLNK AT THE END OF
THE TAF CYCLE OR JUST OUTSIDE OF IT.
MAYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS IS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS PROGGED TO TAKE A
TRACK NEWD TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
TUE. AHEAD OF THE STRONG SYSTEM LOW LEVEL WAA IS CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS WITH THE
MOISTURE ATTM...AND THUS A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDC
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC THIS MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AROUND 850
MB AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CIN HOLDING BACK THE CONVECTION.
WE FEEL THIS TREND WILL CONT TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS B/W 12-15Z OVER THE CNTRL AND SERN CWA FOR ANYTHING
ISO THAT MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE FA. WINDS AT 925 (850) MB INCREASE TO 40 (55) KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOME OF
THIS SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE SURFACE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MIXING THOUGH...AND WE WOULD FEEL BETTER WITH A DUE SOUTH OR
SW WIND...SO A WIND ADVRY IS NO SLAM DUNK...BUT WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING TO 925 MB WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SITES MEET
CRITERIA THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG HOURS. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY.
THE DRY LINE STILL LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE WRN HI PLAINS TODAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. SOME POSITIVE CAPE
IS INDICATED NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT CIN IS SIGNIFICANT AND WITH
MUCH OF THE FORCING GOING INTO SODAK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NEB AREA LOOKS PRETTY LOW...AND ESPECIALLY ANYTHING THAT WOULD
WORK INTO OUR FA. THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SCHC FOR THIS EVNG IN
THE NW. A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACTUALLY COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ERN FA AS BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE
ADVANCING PAC CDFNT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONT SOME
CHC POPS IN THE E AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY TUES MRNG WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
EXPECTED FOR TUE/WED.
THE SURFACE FNT STILL LOOKS TO HANG UP OVER MO/KS ON TUE/WED AND
THIS WILL START TO RETREAT NWD WED NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THU
(ALTHOUGH I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO
NEB). AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHRTWV PROGGED FOR
THU NIGHT SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY WORK AROUND THE FNT AND INTO
CNTRL NEB BY LATE THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THU...THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE PAST FRI.
BOUSTEAD
FIRE WEATHER...
IN THE POST FRONT AIRMASS ON TUES THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OR HIGHER WILL
LEAD TO DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY IN THE
CNTRL AND WRN CWA. DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES
WITH THE MIXING ON TUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 70S. THIS WILL CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF RH BELOW 20
PERCENT DURING THE AFTN ON TUES. WITH STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SD...SFC WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED ABOVE 15 KT WITH
GUSTS WELL OVER 25 KT. THIS ALL SHOULD COMBINED FOR A DANGEROUS
FIRE WX DAY...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP NICELY AROUND
THE AREA...AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUES FOR
A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.
BOUSTEAD/MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>067-078-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ015-033-043-044-050-051-065-078.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS IS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS PROGGED TO TAKE A
TRACK NEWD TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
TUE. AHEAD OF THE STRONG SYSTEM LOW LEVEL WAA IS CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS WITH THE
MOISTURE ATTM...AND THUS A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDC
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC THIS MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AROUND 850
MB AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CIN HOLDING BACK THE CONVECTION.
WE FEEL THIS TREND WILL CONT TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS B/W 12-15Z OVER THE CNTRL AND SERN CWA FOR ANYTHING
ISO THAT MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE FA. WINDS AT 925 (850) MB INCREASE TO 40 (55) KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOME OF
THIS SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE SURFACE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MIXING THOUGH...AND WE WOULD FEEL BETTER WITH A DUE SOUTH OR
SW WIND...SO A WIND ADVRY IS NO SLAM DUNK...BUT WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING TO 925 MB WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SITES MEET
CRITERIA THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG HOURS. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY.
THE DRY LINE STILL LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE WRN HI PLAINS TODAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. SOME POSITIVE CAPE
IS INDICATED NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT CIN IS SIGNIFICANT AND WITH
MUCH OF THE FORCING GOING INTO SODAK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NEB AREA LOOKS PRETTY LOW...AND ESPECIALLY ANYTHING THAT WOULD
WORK INTO OUR FA. THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SCHC FOR THIS EVNG IN
THE NW. A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACTUALLY COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ERN FA AS BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE
ADVANCING PAC CDFNT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONT SOME
CHC POPS IN THE E AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY TUES MRNG WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
EXPECTED FOR TUE/WED.
THE SURFACE FNT STILL LOOKS TO HANG UP OVER MO/KS ON TUE/WED AND
THIS WILL START TO RETREAT NWD WED NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THU
(ALTHOUGH I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO
NEB). AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHRTWV PROGGED FOR
THU NIGHT SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY WORK AROUND THE FNT AND INTO
CNTRL NEB BY LATE THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THU...THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE PAST FRI.
BOUSTEAD
&&
FIRE WEATHER...
IN THE POST FRONT AIRMASS ON TUES THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OR HIGHER WILL
LEAD TO DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY IN THE
CNTRL AND WRN CWA. DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES
WITH THE MIXING ON TUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 70S. THIS WILL CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF RH BELOW 20
PERCENT DURING THE AFTN ON TUES. WITH STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SD...SFC WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED ABOVE 15 KT WITH
GUSTS WELL OVER 25 KT. THIS ALL SHOULD COMBINED FOR A DANGEROUS
FIRE WX DAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP NICELY AROUND
THE ARE AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUES FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA.
MAYES
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
WARM ADVECTION REST OF TONIGHT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL VFR
CIGS...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 5K AGL FT...TO TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD NOT OCCUR. THERE IS AN SLIGHT
CHANCE A SHOWER/TSTM COULD DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE FM CNTRL
INTO NCNTRL NEBRASKA WHICH COULD DRIFT ACROSS ERN NEBR LATE
TONIGHT/MON MORNING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE/CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN TAF FORECAST. SSE SURFACE WINDS WILL DRAMATICALLY
INCREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY AT LEAST IN
20-25KT RANGE. A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
LATE MONDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH AN
ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM APPROACHING NERN NEBRASKA TOWARD 27/06Z.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>067-078-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ015-033-043-044-050-051-065-078.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1155 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS IS WEST OF KGRI WHERE PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE AN INCREASING LLVL JET OVERNIGHT MAY
LEAD TO SOME HIT OR MISS CONVECTION WITH KGRI ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE POTENTIAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY WITH
WIND SPEEDS IN THE AFTN AVERAGING 25 TO 30KTS WITH GUSTS OVER
40KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
UPDATE...MOISTURE AXIS IS ALIGNING ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA ATTM
AND HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG
ALONG MOISTURE AXIS AND HAVE ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. ALSO...INCREASING LLVL JET OVER MOISTURE AXIS AND DECENT
AREA OF THETA E ADVECTION ALIGNS ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO IN THIS AREA AND
INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS FOR TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS LIE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS.
UPPER AIR PROFILER AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS...SANDWICHED BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFF THE
SOCAL COAST. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH WAS PUSHING SOUTH THIS MORNING
MADE IT IN TO JUST ABOUT I-80...BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTED
TRANSITIONING FROM THE NORTH TO MORE TO THE EAST. TOOK A LITTLE
BIT...BUT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FINALLY SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...AND WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES...WINDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA EVENTUALLY SWITCHED OVER TO THE S/SE. BETWEEN THIS
MORNINGS CLOUD COVER NOT ERODING UNTIL LATE MORNING AND ANOTHER
BATCH OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFFECTING THE NWRN CORNER OF THE
CWA...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ONLY REACHED INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S...VS THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA.
LOOKING TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
WILL STATE THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...ESP IN THE
NORTHEAST/EASTERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-50KT SWRLY LLJ
TONIGHT...WHICH NOSES INTO...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z
MONDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS A SURGE OF INCREASED
WARM AIR/THETAE ADVECTION...MAINLY AFFECTING THE NERN HALF OF THE
CWA BETWEEN 06-12Z. REALLY DEBATED THROWING SOME SMALL POPS IN...BUT
ANOTHER THING THAT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS THE
PRESENCE OF CAPPING...SHOWING 700MB TEMPS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 5-9
DEG C DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE CAPPING IS A BIT WEAKER ALONG THAT
NE/ERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...AND WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS PRECIP THERE
ISNT MUCH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS WITH THERE BEING ENOUGH FORCING
TO BREAK THROUGH THAT CAP. WITH CONTINUED S/SERN FLOW OVERNIGHT
/WITH SPEEDS HIGHER THAN LAST FEW NIGHTS/...EXPECTING LOW TEMPS TO
BE WARMER...AND FORECAST LOWS SIT IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.
AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW...THE MAIN FOCUS TURNS TO WINDS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN FOR LATE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHOWS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AS A
DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TROUGH THE ROCKIES...LEAVING THE CWA WITH
SWRLY FLOW. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER...EXPECTING TO SEE
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
INCREASING SRLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MIXING POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO ONLY REACH UPWARDS OF 850MB...THERE ARE ALSO INCREASED WINDS TO
TAP INTO. DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND ADV ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE ERN FRINGE IS MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...BUT WAS
COMFORTABLE INCLUDING IT. EXPECTING TO SEE A BUMP UP IN TEMP...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. AT THIS POINT COULD CREEP CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS /MAINLY IN HASTINGS AND KEARNEY/...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW. RECORDS ARE 86 AT BOTH HASTINGS AND KEARNEY IN 1989...AND 90
IN GRAND ISLAND IN 1907. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE OF
THE CWA...AND DID KEEP THE LOW POPS IN. WHILE WE DO HAVE INCREASING
INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND THE DISTURBANCE IS SHIFTING
CLOSER...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WAS NOT GOING TO INCREASE POPS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. VARIOUS CONCERNS
DURING THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME INCLUDE POSSIBLE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ADDITIONAL...FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. WILL DISCUSS THESE ELEMENTS FIRST...AND CONCLUDE WITH SOME
DISCUSSION ABOUT TEMPERATURES...
STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY MONDAY EVENING...THE MILLION DOLLAR
QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE CWA...AS A COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS FROM THE WY/NEB PANHANDLE AREA AT 00Z...TO
ND BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...CLEARLY
THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. IN
ADDITION...12Z NAM PLAN VIEW CINH FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CAPPING TO NEAR-SURFACE BASED
PARCELS...AS EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS INITIALLY IN THE 6-8C RANGE.
ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS INSISTS ON STORMS AFFECTING AT LEAST THE
WESTERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE CWA...THE LAST TWO NAM RUNS AND ALSO 12Z
ECMWF SKIRT CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...AND
THEN RE-FOCUSING EASTWARD ALONG AN AXIS FROM IA TO EASTERN KS
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE ADVANCING 850MB FRONT AND WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL JET AXIS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT GREAT...NAM/GFS
GENERALLY AGREE ON ELEVATED CAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE DURING
THE NIGHT...AND 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT. CERTAINLY THIS
COULD SUPPORT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL TO
QUARTER SIZE REALLY THE MAIN THREAT...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE WILL KEEP POPS AT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND THE SOUTHEAST 1/3
LATER IN THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY CWA-WIDE...AS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR INVADES...AND THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY AXIS HANGS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF KANSAS. THAT
BEING SAID...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL KS
ZONES IN THE TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT TIME FRAMES IN CASE ANY
CONVECTION BRUSHES INTO THE CWA NEAR MODEST LOW LEVEL JETS FOCUSES
FARTHER SOUTH. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE IMPRESSIVE DRYLINE PASSAGE. WITH
DEWPOINTS DECREASING/MIXING DOWN INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S AT BEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING DOWN INTO THE
15-20 PERCENT RANGE MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS FORECAST INTO RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA...THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND
20 MPH OR HIGHER SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS PREVALENT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. DESPITE THE
RECENT GREEN-UP...THE OFFICIAL VEGETATIVE FUEL STATUS IS STILL
FAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH...AND THUS WE COULD EASILY BE HEADING
TOWARD A RED FLAG WARNING ESPECIALLY FOR MUCH OF NEB ZONES.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS GETS PROGRESSIVELY LOWER WITH
TIME...VARIOUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE
ENTER THE CWA IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...AS AT LEAST TWO FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...AND INTERACT WITH AT LEAST MODEST
INCREASING INSTABILITY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND
INSTABILITY RETURNS. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE OVERALL BEST
RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE
EAST...BUT THESE CHANCES COULD EASILY MIGRATE AROUND OR
CHANGE...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO GET VERY OUT OF PHASE WITH
TIMING OF WAVES. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY LOOKING
MODEST...CERTAINLY NO OBVIOUS SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...LEFT DRY AS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
CONCLUDING WITH A BRIEF DISCUSSION ON TEMPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH LOW-MID
70S ALL DAYS...BUT COULD FORESEE READINGS BY NEXT SUNDAY GETTING
BOOSTED CLOSER TO 80 IF A RIDGE BUILDS AS ADVERTISED. REGARDING
LOW TEMPS...DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...GENERALLY NUDGING MANY
AREAS DOWN 2-5 DEGREES FOR BOTH MON NIGHT AND TUES NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR INVADES AND WINDS LIGHTEN. IN FACT...NOW HAVE MID-UPPER 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING
SAID...STILL NO LEGITIMATE FREEZING TEMPS IN SIGHT THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060>062-072>075-082>085.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1046 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THESE FRONTS WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH FAIR SKIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND EVEN INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER. WE REMAIN VERY DRY
AT THE LOW LEVELS...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM MUST BE RESPECTED. IN FACT...DESPITE 35
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FROM AN OBS SITE ON BRUCE PENINSULA AT
THE SURFACE...ALOFT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND EVEN INSTABILITY
FOR A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP.
SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES IN OUR SOUNDINGS 12Z-15Z OF COURSE
ARE VERY POSITIVE. BUT A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LATEST SOUNDINGS
REVEAL THAT ABOVE THE VERY STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER...THERE IS
ACTUALLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. KELM NAM SOUNDING SEEN VIA
BUFKIT FOR EXAMPLE MANAGES A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ELEVATED CAPE...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS ABOVE AN INCH. THE RAPID UPDATE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW ARE ALSO CATCHING ON TO
THIS QUICKLY EVOLVING TREND...THAT SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDER ARE
BECOMING MORE PROBABLE IN THE MORNING. BRIEF WARM SECTOR THEN
COMES IN BEHIND THE MORNING BATCH...ONLY FOR COLD FRONT TO THEN
PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDER. WELL UPSTREAM...THUNDERSTORMS IN ILLINOIS ARE GIVING US A
HINT OF THIS POTENTIAL.
AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION UP TO
NOW THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES HAVE NEEDED TWEAKING TO KEEP UP
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS AND
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LOWS TO OCCUR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPING
TEMPERATURES TURN THE CORNER TO RISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IF SHOWERS MOVE IN FAST ENOUGH...A COUPLE PLACES IN MOHAWK
VALLEY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY COULD A LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THAT QUICKLY SWITCHES OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT CONSIDERED VERY LIKELY AT THIS TIME...WITH
MORE PROBABLE OUTCOMING BEING TEMPERATURES BREAKING ABOVE FREEZING
BEFORE OR JUST AS SHOWERS ARRIVE.
BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH SURGE OF WARM AIR
CAPTURING MOST OF THE AREA...YET TRIPLE POINT PASSING CLOSE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND ALSO STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR BEING PERHAPS A
BIT HARDER TO SCOUR OUT. PARTIAL SUNSHINE BETWEEN BATCHES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...YET CLOSER TO
50 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2NDRY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WORKS SOUTH ON WED NGT...AS S/WV
MOVS BY TO THE N. MDLS SHOW MOIST NW FLOW...SO CHC POPS FOR
-SHRA/-SHSN OVRNGT. SLOW IMPROVMENT ON THU AS HIGH PRES TRIES TO
BUILD IN BUT GUSTY NW WINDS SHUD PERSIST DURING THE DAY. WENT
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON THU AS MOS MAXES WERE NOT SUPPORTED BY MDL
925 MB TEMPS...WHICH INFERRED MAXES THE L/M 40S. MAINLY SKC ON
THU NGT AS SFC RDG AXIS MOVS INTO THE AREA. ON FRI LEANED TWDS THE
12Z GFS/00Z EURO...AND ONLY MENTIONED A SLGT CHC OF -SHRA ACRS FAR
SW SXNS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY. OTRW...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MID AND HI CLD SPREADING ACRS CNTRL AND SRN SXNS ON
FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
440 PM UPDATE...LONG TERM PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT BUSY WITH QUICK
SUCCESSION OF MID SCALE UPPER RIDGES AND WAVES. YET BECAUSE THESE
UPPER FEATURES ARE NOT VERY BIG...THE FORECAST IS PRONE TO MODEL-
TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES ON TIMING FOR EACH OF
THEM. ALSO...WITH THE QUICK TIMING BETWEEN FEATURES...MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY COULD BE AND ISSUE. THUS I DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM
HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH ITSELF WAS FAIRLY NON-COMMITTAL WITH SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS. ON A LARGER SCALE THOUGH...GFS/ECMWF AT LEAST
HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON NEAR NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING TO BRIEF PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL HEADING
INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST THUS ALSO TRENDS FROM NEAR
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.
ONE OTHER NOTE...NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVING
UP FROM THE MIDATLANTIC TO OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE BACK
PART OF ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
WAVE OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE
FROM THE 00Z ECMWF...AND IS STARKLY DIFFERENT FROM THE 12Z
GFS...SO NOT PUTTING TOO MUCH STOCK INTO THAT SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WILL BRING A WARM FRONT NEAR THE REGION LATE WED MORNING.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING
TO 5K FT AROUND 11Z IN NY. SYSTEM LACKS MOISTURE AND IS MOVING
INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS THEREFORE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 FOR MVFR
RAIN SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR BETWEEN 14Z TO 18Z. CIGS AT KRME COULD
FALL TO MVFR WITH ANY MIDDAY SHOWERS. FOR THE AFTN AT KRME/KSYR PUT
PREDOMINANT SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. NOT EXPECTING MVFR
WITH THE SHOWERS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY EVENING AFTER
00Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E/SE OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO SHARP
INVERSION WITH STRONG SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. WINDS AT 2K FT BY
06Z WILL BE 22035KT. SFC WINDS BECOMING S/SW AFTER SUNRISE AROUND
10 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST IN THE AFTN AT 12G20KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT TO THU...CHC MVFR IN -SHRA...MIXED WITH -SHSN AT TIMES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTN TO FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SAT...CHC MVFR IN -SHRA...MOSTLY FOR KAVP.
SAT NGT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC MVFR IN -SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1045 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING SKY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE FRONTS WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH
FAIR SKIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND EVEN INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER. WE REMAIN VERY DRY
AT THE LOW LEVELS...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM MUST BE RESPECTED. IN FACT...DESPITE 35
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FROM AN OBS SITE ON BRUCE PENINSULA AT
THE SURFACE...ALOFT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND EVEN INSTABILITY
FOR A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP.
SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES IN OUR SOUNDINGS 12Z-15Z OF COURSE
ARE VERY POSITIVE. BUT A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LATEST SOUNDINGS
REVEAL THAT ABOVE THE VERY STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER...THERE IS
ACTUALLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. KELM NAM SOUNDING SEEN VIA
BUFKIT FOR EXAMPLE MANAGES A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ELEVATED CAPE...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS ABOVE AN INCH. THE RAPID UPDATE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW ARE ALSO CATCHING ON TO
THIS QUICKLY EVOLVING TREND...THAT SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDER ARE
BECOMING MORE PROBABLE IN THE MORNING. BRIEF WARM SECTOR THEN
COMES IN BEHIND THE MORNING BATCH...ONLY FOR COLD FRONT TO THEN
PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDER. WELL UPSTREAM...THUNDERSTORMS IN ILLINOIS ARE GIVING US A
HINT OF THIS POTENTIAL.
AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION UP TO
NOW THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES HAVE NEEDED TWEAKING TO KEEP UP
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS AND
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LOWS TO OCCUR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPING
TEMPERATURES TURN THE CORNER TO RISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IF SHOWERS MOVE IN FAST ENOUGH...A COUPLE PLACES IN MOHAWK
VALLEY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY COULD A LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THAT QUICKLY SWITCHES OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT CONSIDERED VERY LIKELY AT THIS TIME...WITH
MORE PROBABLE OUTCOMING BEING TEMPERATURES BREAKING ABOVE FREEZING
BEFORE OR JUST AS SHOWERS ARRIVE.
BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH SURGE OF WARM AIR
CAPTURING MOST OF THE AREA...YET TRIPLE POINT PASSING CLOSE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND ALSO STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR BEING PERHAPS A
BIT HARDER TO SCOUR OUT. PARTIAL SUNSHINE BETWEEN BATCHES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...YET CLOSER TO
50 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2NDRY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WORKS SOUTH ON WED NGT...AS S/WV
MOVS BY TO THE N. MDLS SHOW MOIST NW FLOW...SO CHC POPS FOR
-SHRA/-SHSN OVRNGT. SLOW IMPROVMENT ON THU AS HIGH PRES TRIES TO
BUILD IN BUT GUSTY NW WINDS SHUD PERSIST DURING THE DAY. WENT
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON THU AS MOS MAXES WERE NOT SUPPORTED BY MDL
925 MB TEMPS...WHICH INFERRED MAXES THE L/M 40S. MAINLY SKC ON
THU NGT AS SFC RDG AXIS MOVS INTO THE AREA. ON FRI LEANED TWDS THE
12Z GFS/00Z EURO...AND ONLY MENTIONED A SLGT CHC OF -SHRA ACRS FAR
SW SXNS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY. OTRW...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MID AND HI CLD SPREADING ACRS CNTRL AND SRN SXNS ON
FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
440 PM UPDATE...LONG TERM PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT BUSY WITH QUICK
SUCCESSION OF MID SCALE UPPER RIDGES AND WAVES. YET BECAUSE THESE
UPPER FEATURES ARE NOT VERY BIG...THE FORECAST IS PRONE TO MODEL-
TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES ON TIMING FOR EACH OF
THEM. ALSO...WITH THE QUICK TIMING BETWEEN FEATURES...MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY COULD BE AND ISSUE. THUS I DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM
HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH ITSELF WAS FAIRLY NON-COMMITTAL WITH SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS. ON A LARGER SCALE THOUGH...GFS/ECMWF AT LEAST
HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON NEAR NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING TO BRIEF PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL HEADING
INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST THUS ALSO TRENDS FROM NEAR
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.
ONE OTHER NOTE...NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVING
UP FROM THE MIDATLANTIC TO OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE BACK
PART OF ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
WAVE OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE
FROM THE 00Z ECMWF...AND IS STARKLY DIFFERENT FROM THE 12Z
GFS...SO NOT PUTTING TOO MUCH STOCK INTO THAT SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WILL BRING A WARM FRONT NEAR THE REGION LATE WED MORNING.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING
TO 5K FT AROUND 11Z IN NY. SYSTEM LACKS MOISTURE AND IS MOVING
INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS THEREFORE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 FOR MVFR
RAIN SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR BETWEEN 14Z TO 18Z. CIGS AT KRME COULD
FALL TO MVFR WITH ANY MIDDAY SHOWERS. FOR THE AFTN AT KRME/KSYR PUT
PREDOMINANT SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. NOT EXPECTING MVFR
WITH THE SHOWERS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY EVENING AFTER
00Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E/SE OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO SHARP
INVERSION WITH STRONG SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. WINDS AT 2K FT BY
06Z WILL BE 22035KT. SFC WINDS BECOMING S/SW AFTER SUNRISE AROUND
10 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST IN THE AFTN AT 12G20KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT TO THU...CHC MVFR IN -SHRA...MIXED WITH -SHSN AT TIMES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTN TO FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SAT...CHC MVFR IN -SHRA...MOSTLY FOR KAVP.
SAT NGT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC MVFR IN -SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 653 PM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. EXPECTING THE CLOUDS
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING...AND WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...AS TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM EDT MONDAY...BIG PICTURE SHOWS
DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH RIBBON OF
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BUILDING INTO OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1032MB HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA....WITH SFC
DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BLW ZERO THIS AFTN. THIS AIRMASS
WL BE ACRS OUR FA ON TUES...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FCST
CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE TEMPS...FOLLOWED BY DWPTS/RH PARAMETERS ON
TUES...ALONG WITH SFC WINDS. UPSTREAM MINS LAST NIGHT SHOW MANY
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A FEW BLW ZERO READINGS SOUTH OF
HUDSON BAY...ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TEMPS -20C. GIVEN SOME GRADIENT
ACRS OUR CWA....LIMITED SNOW PACK...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB
TEMPS...WL MENTION LOWS FROM 0F AT SLK/MTNS TO 5 TO 10F
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT TO 10 TO 15F CPV/SLV. RUC13 AND NAM12 RH
PROFILES STILL SHOW SOME 975MB TO 800MB RH ACRS THE NEK/NORTHERN
VT MTNS THRU 03Z...THEREFORE WL TRY TO SHOW SOME CLOUDS...BUT
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL MTN...DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH TWD MORNING.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY AT 12Z WL
SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NY BY 15Z AND INTO THE CPV BY 18Z TUES...WITH A
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BTWN 15
AND 25 MPH THRU NOON...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...BUT
DECREASING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS DURING THE AFTN HRS TO 5 TO 15 MPH.
AT VSF...SOUNDING SHOWS MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNTS...THRU
16Z...HELPING TO PRODUCE SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...DURING THE
MORNING HRS. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TO 900MB ON TUES
AFTN...WHICH WL TRANSFER SOME VERY DRY AIR TO THE SFC. UPSTREAM OBS
UNDER SFC HIGH PRES SHOWS DWPTS BTWN -9F AND +5F...COMBINED WITH
ANTICIPATED HIGHS IN THE 30S ON TUES...RESULTS IN MIN RH VALUES BTWN
10% AND 18%...WITH LOWEST VALUES ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY ZNS ON
TUES AFTN. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN WL DEVELOP
ACRS THE NE CONUS...WITH CHANGEABLE WX ANTICIPATED. ON TUES
NIGHT...COMBINATION OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLW AND DEVELOPING TIGHT
SW TO NE THERMAL GRADIENT WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT LOW TEMP FCST.
GIVEN...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SFC DWPTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...FEEL TEMPS WL QUICKLY DROP IN THE EARLY HRS...THEN
INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT AS WINDS/CLOUDS INCREASE. THINKING LOWS WL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10F NEK TO 20 TO 25F SLV/CPV. GFS/NAM ARE HANDLING
MOISTURE/LIFT PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH WAA DIFFERENTLY AND THE
ACCOMPANYING QPF. NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF FIELDS ACRS
OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA...WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25"...WHILE GFS IS
A TRACK TO 0.10". GIVEN...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF 5H
VORT AND WAA LIFT...AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW...WL TREND TWD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. WL MENTION CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS
ACRS NNY INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS AFT 06Z WEDS...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE (TRACE TO 1"). INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AS 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE BLW 540
AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE BTWN -2C AND -4C. BEST 850 TO 500MB RH
AND 700 TO 500MB OMEGA LIFTS FROM SW TO NW ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 06Z
AND 15Z WEDS. AFTER 15Z...BEST MOISTURE/LIFT IS ACRS OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN ZNS...AS WARM ADVECTS INTO OUR CWA. LOCAL 4KM AND NAM
SHOWS SOME LLVL DAMMING OF COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY NEK AND EXTREME
NORTHERN SLV ON WEDS...CREATING A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT.
WITH CLRING SKIES PARTS OF THE SLV FROM GOUVERNEUR TO
POTSDAM/CANTON WL WARM INTO THE L60S...WHILE NEAR MSS COULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. ELSEWHERE...GIVEN SHARP 925MB THERMAL
GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...TEMPS WL BE TRICKY...WL MENTION L/M50S CPV
TO L/M40S NEK/MTNS OF VT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 354 PM EDT MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
DISAGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEGINS TO EXIT
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. MAINTAINED CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG
EASTERN-FACING SLOPES WHERE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER.
NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE -8 TO -10C RANGE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY REACH INTO THE 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN TIMING REGARDING A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. 12Z GFS TRACKS THE LOW FURTHER TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY THAN THE 12Z ECMWF...AND IS ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAVE OPTED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM CONTINUITY...SO HAVE
KEPT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED...THEN TAPER OFF AND BE
SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. VFR CEILINGS EXIST THROUGH
00Z WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
BRIEF IFR INTERVALS POSSIBLE. RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LIGHT N-NW WINDS
AND A RETURN TO DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE ON
TUESDAY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT COLD...BUT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE
FAIR. MIXING DEVELOPS EARLY AND WITH THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVING DOWN OVER US...THE IDEA OF SHARPLY FALLING
HUMIDITIES LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS A GOOD BET. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE 12 TO 18
PERCENT RANGE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TAPER OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH
WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT. FULL SUN WILL HELP DRY THE
FINE FUELS...WHICH GOT A REPRIEVE FROM THE LIGHT SNOW/CLOUD COVER
ON MONDAY. FORESTRY PERSONNEL INDICATE ABNORMALLY DRY FUELS
OVERALL...THUS THE SITUATION WILL BE EXAMINED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLY
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON
FIRE WEATHER...EVENSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
354 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...BIG PICTURE SHOWS DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH RIBBON OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BUILDING
INTO OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1032MB HIGH PRES
BUILDING INTO OUR CWA....WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BLW ZERO THIS AFTN. THIS AIRMASS WL BE ACRS OUR FA ON
TUES...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE
TEMPS...FOLLOWED BY DWPTS/RH PARAMETERS ON TUES...ALONG WITH SFC
WINDS. UPSTREAM MINS LAST NIGHT SHOW MANY TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH A FEW BLW ZERO READINGS SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY...ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TEMPS -20C. GIVEN SOME GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA....LIMITED SNOW PACK...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB
TEMPS...WL MENTION LOWS FROM 0F AT SLK/MTNS TO 5 TO 10F
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT TO 10 TO 15F CPV/SLV. RUC13 AND NAM12 RH
PROFILES STILL SHOW SOME 975MB TO 800MB RH ACRS THE NEK/NORTHERN
VT MTNS THRU 03Z...THEREFORE WL TRY TO SHOW SOME CLOUDS...BUT
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL MTN...DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH TWD MORNING.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY AT 12Z WL
SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NY BY 15Z AND INTO THE CPV BY 18Z TUES...WITH A
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BTWN 15
AND 25 MPH THRU NOON...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...BUT
DECREASING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS DURING THE AFTN HRS TO 5 TO 15 MPH.
AT VSF...SOUNDING SHOWS MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNTS...THRU
16Z...HELPING TO PRODUCE SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...DURING THE
MORNING HRS. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TO 900MB ON TUES
AFTN...WHICH WL TRANSFER SOME VERY DRY AIR TO THE SFC. UPSTREAM OBS
UNDER SFC HIGH PRES SHOWS DWPTS BTWN -9F AND +5F...COMBINED WITH
ANTICIPATED HIGHS IN THE 30S ON TUES...RESULTS IN MIN RH VALUES BTWN
10% AND 18%...WITH LOWEST VALUES ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY ZNS ON
TUES AFTN. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN WL DEVELOP
ACRS THE NE CONUS...WITH CHANGEABLE WX ANTICIPATED. ON TUES
NIGHT...COMBINATION OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLW AND DEVELOPING TIGHT
SW TO NE THERMAL GRADIENT WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT LOW TEMP FCST.
GIVEN...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SFC DWPTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...FEEL TEMPS WL QUICKLY DROP IN THE EARLY HRS...THEN
INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT AS WINDS/CLOUDS INCREASE. THINKING LOWS WL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10F NEK TO 20 TO 25F SLV/CPV. GFS/NAM ARE HANDLING
MOISTURE/LIFT PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH WAA DIFFERENTLY AND THE
ACCOMPANYING QPF. NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF FIELDS ACRS
OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA...WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25"...WHILE GFS IS
A TRACK TO 0.10". GIVEN...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF 5H
VORT AND WAA LIFT...AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW...WL TREND TWD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. WL MENTION CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS
ACRS NNY INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS AFT 06Z WEDS...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE (TRACE TO 1"). INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AS 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE BLW 540
AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE BTWN -2C AND -4C. BEST 850 TO 500MB RH
AND 700 TO 500MB OMEGA LIFTS FROM SW TO NW ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 06Z
AND 15Z WEDS. AFTER 15Z...BEST MOISTURE/LIFT IS ACRS OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN ZNS...AS WARM ADVECTS INTO OUR CWA. LOCAL 4KM AND NAM
SHOWS SOME LLVL DAMMING OF COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY NEK AND EXTREME
NORTHERN SLV ON WEDS...CREATING A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT.
WITH CLRING SKIES PARTS OF THE SLV FROM GOUVERNEUR TO
POTSDAM/CANTON WL WARM INTO THE L60S...WHILE NEAR MSS COULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. ELSEWHERE...GIVEN SHARP 925MB THERMAL
GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...TEMPS WL BE TRICKY...WL MENTION L/M50S CPV
TO L/M40S NEK/MTNS OF VT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 354 PM EDT MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
DISAGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEGINS TO EXIT
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. MAINTAINED CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG
EASTERN-FACING SLOPES WHERE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER.
NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE -8 TO -10C RANGE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY REACH INTO THE 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN TIMING REGARDING A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. 12Z GFS TRACKS THE LOW FURTHER TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY THAN THE 12Z ECMWF...AND IS ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAVE OPTED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM CONTINUITY...SO HAVE
KEPT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED...THEN TAPER OFF AND BE
SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. VFR CEILINGS EXIST THROUGH
00Z WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
BRIEF IFR INTERVALS POSSIBLE. RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LIGHT N-NW WINDS
AND A RETURN TO DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE ON
TUESDAY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT COLD...BUT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE
FAIR. MIXING DEVELOPS EARLY AND WITH THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVING DOWN OVER US...THE IDEA OF SHARPLY FALLING
HUMIDITIES LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS A GOOD BET. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE 12 TO 18
PERCENT RANGE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TAPER OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH
WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT. FULL SUN WILL HELP DRY THE
FINE FUELS...WHICH GOT A REPRIEVE FROM THE LIGHT SNOW/CLOUD COVER
ON MONDAY. FORESTRY PERSONNEL INDICATE ABNORMALLY DRY FUELS
OVERALL...THUS THE SITUATION WILL BE EXAMINED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLY
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...BIG PICTURE SHOWS DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH RIBBON OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BUILDING
INTO OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1032MB HIGH PRES
BUILDING INTO OUR CWA....WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BLW ZERO THIS AFTN. THIS AIRMASS WL BE ACRS OUR FA ON
TUES...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE
TEMPS...FOLLOWED BY DWPTS/RH PARAMETERS ON TUES...ALONG WITH SFC
WINDS. UPSTREAM MINS LAST NIGHT SHOW MANY TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH A FEW BLW ZERO READINGS SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY...ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TEMPS -20C. GIVEN SOME GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA....LIMITED SNOW PACK...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB
TEMPS...WL MENTION LOWS FROM 0F AT SLK/MTNS TO 5 TO 10F
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT TO 10 TO 15F CPV/SLV. RUC13 AND NAM12 RH
PROFILES STILL SHOW SOME 975MB TO 800MB RH ACRS THE NEK/NORTHERN
VT MTNS THRU 03Z...THEREFORE WL TRY TO SHOW SOME CLOUDS...BUT
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL MTN...DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH TWD MORNING.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY AT 12Z WL
SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NY BY 15Z AND INTO THE CPV BY 18Z TUES...WITH A
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BTWN 15
AND 25 MPH THRU NOON...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...BUT
DECREASING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS DURING THE AFTN HRS TO 5 TO 15 MPH.
AT VSF...SOUNDING SHOWS MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNTS...THRU
16Z...HELPING TO PRODUCE SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...DURING THE
MORNING HRS. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TO 900MB ON TUES
AFTN...WHICH WL TRANSFER SOME VERY DRY AIR TO THE SFC. UPSTREAM OBS
UNDER SFC HIGH PRES SHOWS DWPTS BTWN -9F AND +5F...COMBINED WITH
ANTICIPATED HIGHS IN THE 30S ON TUES...RESULTS IN MIN RH VALUES BTWN
10% AND 18%...WITH LOWEST VALUES ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY ZNS ON
TUES AFTN. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN WL DEVELOP
ACRS THE NE CONUS...WITH CHANGEABLE WX ANTICIPATED. ON TUES
NIGHT...COMBINATION OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLW AND DEVELOPING TIGHT
SW TO NE THERMAL GRADIENT WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT LOW TEMP FCST.
GIVEN...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SFC DWPTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...FEEL TEMPS WL QUICKLY DROP IN THE EARLY HRS...THEN
INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT AS WINDS/CLOUDS INCREASE. THINKING LOWS WL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10F NEK TO 20 TO 25F SLV/CPV. GFS/NAM ARE HANDLING
MOISTURE/LIFT PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH WAA DIFFERENTLY AND THE
ACCOMPANYING QPF. NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF FIELDS ACRS
OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA...WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25"...WHILE GFS IS
A TRACK TO 0.10". GIVEN...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF 5H
VORT AND WAA LIFT...AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW...WL TREND TWD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. WL MENTION CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS
ACRS NNY INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS AFT 06Z WEDS...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE (TRACE TO 1"). INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AS 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE BLW 540
AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE BTWN -2C AND -4C. BEST 850 TO 500MB RH
AND 700 TO 500MB OMEGA LIFTS FROM SW TO NW ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 06Z
AND 15Z WEDS. AFTER 15Z...BEST MOISTURE/LIFT IS ACRS OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN ZNS...AS WARM ADVECTS INTO OUR CWA. LOCAL 4KM AND NAM
SHOWS SOME LLVL DAMMING OF COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY NEK AND EXTREME
NORTHERN SLV ON WEDS...CREATING A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT.
WITH CLRING SKIES PARTS OF THE SLV FROM GOUVERNEUR TO
POTSDAM/CANTON WL WARM INTO THE L60S...WHILE NEAR MSS COULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. ELSEWHERE...GIVEN SHARP 925MB THERMAL
GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...TEMPS WL BE TRICKY...WL MENTION L/M50S CPV
TO L/M40S NEK/MTNS OF VT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT MONDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED FCST. WEAK SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM CENTRAL NY TO WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH TROUGH AXIS POSITIVELY TILTED IN 00Z
GFS AND MOVING EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL CARRY
OVC SKIES, POPS 40-60 PERCENT, AND QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.25" FOR
WED NIGHT. WEAK SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
RAIN OR MTN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY. GENERALLY TRENDING DRIER BY
THURSDAY AFTN WITH PREVAILING N-NW FLOW AND SFC RIDGE BEGINNING TO
BUILD EWD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION. PATTERN BECOMES FAIRLY
STAGNANT WITH DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WILL BE GOING WITH A DRY FCST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO CROSS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ATTM FOR
THIS FEATURE GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NLY WINDS
INFLUENCED BY DOWNSTREAM DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. TEMPS THEN TRENDING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED...THEN TAPER OFF AND BE
SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. VFR CEILINGS EXIST THROUGH
00Z WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
BRIEF IFR INTERVALS POSSIBLE. RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LIGHT N-NW WINDS
AND A RETURN TO DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE ON
TUESDAY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT COLD...BUT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE
FAIR. MIXING DEVELOPS EARLY AND WITH THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVING DOWN OVER US...THE IDEA OF SHARPLY FALLING
HUMIDITIES LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS A GOOD BET. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE 12 TO 18
PERCENT RANGE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TAPER OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH
WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT. FULL SUN WILL HELP DRY THE
FINE FUELS...WHICH GOT A REPRIEVE FROM THE LIGHT SNOW/CLOUD COVER
ON MONDAY. FORESTRY PERSONNEL INDICATE ABNORMALLY DRY FUELS
OVERALL...THUS THE SITUATION WILL BE EXAMINED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLY
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON
FIRE WEATHER...EVENSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
629 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN TODAY AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A BRIEF WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS DRIER AIR LURKING JUST WEST
OF THE AREA PLUS CONTINUING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SHOULD ERODE MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DISCUSSION
FROM 3 AM FOLLOWS...
THE COLD UPPER LOW IS NOW WELL EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND MOVING OUT
TO SEA. OUR MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW AND A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTH AND THROUGH
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULDN`T
BE ANY CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BRING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN
NEARLY TWO WEEKS.
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING SWIRLING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH CAROLINA.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS REVEALS SINKING PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY ERODE THESE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AFTER 14Z (10 AM) SUNSHINE SHOULD BE BREAKING OUT
EVEN IN THE WILMINGTON AREA...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 75-80
TODAY... WARMEST IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA PEE DEE REGION AND COOLEST
ALONG THE NC EAST-FACING BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO
43-48...COOLEST IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND WARMEST
NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT TUESDAY
WILL BE THE FIRST BELOW CLIMO DAY SINCE MARCH 11 AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP TEMPS BELOW...TO WELL BELOW...SEASONABLE NORMS...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS BEING IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE NE WINDS ADVECT
OFF THE COOL OCEAN. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY TUESDAY...NOTE
THAT FREQUENTLY MOISTURE IS UNDER-MODELED IN WEDGE SCENARIOS SO WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER MORE THAN SUGGESTED BY PROFILES. MIXING WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH TO BELOW 900MB...AND LOW LEVEL 1000-900MB
THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR WILMINGTON...TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC.
HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DECOUPLING IN THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE...AND CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT...AS IT IS...IS WHETHER
SOME SLIGHT LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH DRIFTS
OFFSHORE...OR WHETHER WE CAN STAY PERFECTLY CALM. NEARLY ALL THE
FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM 06Z-12Z
WEDNESDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE. BELIEVE IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR SUCH SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AFTER MANY HOURS OF NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL NOT
DROP MINS AS LOW AS MAV NUMBERS...AND OPT FOR LOW 40S AREA
WIDE...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS POTENTIALLY TOUCHING 39.
BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH HAS DRIFTED OFFSHORE AND WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW COMES BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS WILL
HELP RAISE TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE CLIMO...MID 70S AWAY FROM THE
COAST...AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT WILL KEEPS TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH OUT OF THE MID 50S AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE LONG TERM OCCURS
LATE THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN TO THE WEEKEND.
MODERATELY POTENT S/W TROUGH DIGS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY...SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. STILL NOTING TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT FOR PERSISTENCE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF/CMC OVER THE GFS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE DOES TRY TO
ADVECT INTO OUR AREA JUST AHEAD OF FROPA...SO WILL CARRY SCHC POP
FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY EVE/NIGHT. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION COMES
TRUE...850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 80
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE EXTENDED. IF...HOWEVER...A FASTER FROPA OCCURS...THIS
WILL OBVIOUSLY CUT TEMPS BACK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
WOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF AFTN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI/SAT RETURNING THE
AREA TO NEAR CLIMO TEMPS...POSSIBLY BELOW CLIMO WITH SOME NE FLOW ON
FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY ON EVOLUTION AND
STRENGTH OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM S/W DROPPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
RIDGE. GFS IS FASTER AND WEAKER...CONTINUING ITS TREND THIS
YEAR...SO WILL BLEND ECMWF/GFS BUT WITH ADDITIONAL WEIGHT ON THE
FORMER. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WKND
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...
RADAR AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST IT`S NOT OVER FOR NORTH
CAROLINA JUST YET. SHOWERS ROTATING SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL AFFECT THE ILM
TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z...WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
LBT VICINITY THROUGH 0730Z OR SO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO CEILING HEIGHTS...MVFR SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BUT IFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PARTICULARLY AFTER 08Z. AFTER DAYBREAK WINDS
WILL PICK UP...GUSTING OVER 20 KTS BY MID MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME
NEARLY CLEAR AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE
MORNING FOG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...NORTH WINDS 15-20 KT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AS FORECAST. WE SHOULD BE IN THE 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3 AM
FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE NC OUTER BANKS AND WILL MOVE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO HIGH PRESSURE IN
CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS HIGH MOVES SOUTH IT WILL PUSH A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT...REACHING 15-20 KT BY LATE THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL SEAS COULD
REACH 6 FEET IN THE WATERS NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS DUE TO THEIR
EXPOSED POSITION IN THIS WIND DIRECTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO RAISE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE SEAS 2-4 FEET TODAY
SHOULD BUILD TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT AWAY FROM SHORE WITH THE INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NE SURGE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AROUND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AT LEAST CAUTIONARY HEADLINES APPEAR
LIKELY TO BE IN EFFECT TUESDAY MORNING WITH 15-20 KT WINDS CREATING
4-5 FT NE WIND WAVES CONTROLLING THE WAVE SPECTRUM. DURING
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS SO WINDS/WAVES
RAPIDLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM
OVERNIGHT WHILE SEAS FALL TO 1-2 FT. GRADIENT INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. THIS PUTS THE WATERS INTO A PRE FRONTAL REGIME...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS FORCING SEAS BACK UP TO 3-5 FT...AND
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NECESSARY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CAUTIONARY HEADLINES POSSIBLY ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT. SW WIND WAVES OF
3-5 FT EARLY THURSDAY FALL TO 2-3 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF
CONFUSED SEAS IS LIKELY THURSDAY EVE AS THE WAVE SPECTRUM FEATURES
TWO DOMINANT WIND WAVES...ONE SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM THE SW...WHILE A
BUILDING NE WIND WAVE DEVELOPS. N/NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FRIDAY
KEEP SEAS ONLY AROUND 2 FT THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
319 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN TODAY AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A BRIEF WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE COLD UPPER LOW IS NOW WELL EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS AND MOVING OUT TO SEA. OUR MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW AND A MUCH DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SOUTH AND THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULDN`T BE ANY CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS.
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING SWIRLING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH CAROLINA.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS REVEALS SINKING PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY ERODE THESE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AFTER 14Z (10 AM) SUNSHINE SHOULD BE BREAKING OUT
EVEN IN THE WILMINGTON AREA...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 75-80
TODAY... WARMEST IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA PEE DEE REGION AND COOLEST
ALONG THE NC EAST-FACING BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO
43-48...COOLEST IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND WARMEST
NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT TUESDAY
WILL BE THE FIRST BELOW CLIMO DAY SINCE MARCH 11 AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP TEMPS BELOW...TO WELL BELOW...SEASONABLE NORMS...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS BEING IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE NE WINDS ADVECT
OFF THE COOL OCEAN. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY TUESDAY...NOTE
THAT FREQUENTLY MOISTURE IS UNDER-MODELED IN WEDGE SCENARIOS SO WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER MORE THAN SUGGESTED BY PROFILES. MIXING WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH TO BELOW 900MB...AND LOW LEVEL 1000-900MB
THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR WILMINGTON...TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC.
HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DECOUPLING IN THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE...AND CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT...AS IT IS...IS WHETHER
SOME SLIGHT LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH DRIFTS
OFFSHORE...OR WHETHER WE CAN STAY PERFECTLY CALM. NEARLY ALL THE
FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM 06Z-12Z
WEDNESDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE. BELIEVE IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR SUCH SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AFTER MANY HOURS OF NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL NOT
DROP MINS AS LOW AS MAV NUMBERS...AND OPT FOR LOW 40S AREA
WIDE...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS POTENTIALLY TOUCHING 39.
BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH HAS DRIFTED OFFSHORE AND WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW COMES BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS WILL
HELP RAISE TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE CLIMO...MID 70S AWAY FROM THE
COAST...AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT WILL KEEPS TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH OUT OF THE MID 50S AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE LONG TERM OCCURS
LATE THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN TO THE WEEKEND.
MODERATELY POTENT S/W TROUGH DIGS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY...SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. STILL NOTING TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT FOR PERSISTENCE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF/CMC OVER THE GFS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE DOES TRY TO
ADVECT INTO OUR AREA JUST AHEAD OF FROPA...SO WILL CARRY SCHC POP
FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY EVE/NIGHT. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION COMES
TRUE...850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 80
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE EXTENDED. IF...HOWEVER...A FASTER FROPA OCCURS...THIS
WILL OBVIOUSLY CUT TEMPS BACK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
WOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF AFTN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI/SAT RETURNING THE
AREA TO NEAR CLIMO TEMPS...POSSIBLY BELOW CLIMO WITH SOME NE FLOW ON
FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY ON EVOLUTION AND
STRENGTH OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM S/W DROPPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
RIDGE. GFS IS FASTER AND WEAKER...CONTINUING ITS TREND THIS
YEAR...SO WILL BLEND ECMWF/GFS BUT WITH ADDITIONAL WEIGHT ON THE
FORMER. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WKND
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...
RADAR AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST IT`S NOT OVER FOR NORTH
CAROLINA JUST YET. SHOWERS ROTATING SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL AFFECT THE ILM
TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z...WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
LBT VICINITY THROUGH 0730Z OR SO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO CEILING HEIGHTS...MVFR SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BUT IFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PARTICULARLY AFTER 08Z. AFTER DAYBREAK WINDS
WILL PICK UP...GUSTING OVER 20 KTS BY MID MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME
NEARLY CLEAR AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE
MORNING FOG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE NC OUTER
BANKS AND WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL
BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS HIGH MOVES SOUTH IT WILL
PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT...REACHING 15-20 KT
BY LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL SEAS COULD REACH 6 FEET IN THE WATERS NEAR FRYING PAN
SHOALS DUE TO THEIR EXPOSED POSITION IN THIS WIND DIRECTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO RAISE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE
SEAS 2-4 FEET TODAY SHOULD BUILD TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT AWAY FROM SHORE
WITH THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NE SURGE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AROUND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AT LEAST CAUTIONARY HEADLINES APPEAR
LIKELY TO BE IN EFFECT TUESDAY MORNING WITH 15-20 KT WINDS CREATING
4-5 FT NE WIND WAVES CONTROLLING THE WAVE SPECTRUM. DURING
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS SO WINDS/WAVES
RAPIDLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM
OVERNIGHT WHILE SEAS FALL TO 1-2 FT. GRADIENT INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. THIS PUTS THE WATERS INTO A PRE FRONTAL REGIME...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS FORCING SEAS BACK UP TO 3-5 FT...AND
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NECESSARY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CAUTIONARY HEADLINES POSSIBLY ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT. SW WIND WAVES OF
3-5 FT EARLY THURSDAY FALL TO 2-3 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF
CONFUSED SEAS IS LIKELY THURSDAY EVE AS THE WAVE SPECTRUM FEATURES
TWO DOMINANT WIND WAVES...ONE SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM THE SW...WHILE A
BUILDING NE WIND WAVE DEVELOPS. N/NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FRIDAY
KEEP SEAS ONLY AROUND 2 FT THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA/DL
MARINE...TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
101 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN TODAY AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A BRIEF WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND MOVEMENT AND IS THE
BASIS FOR OUR EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT ACROSS PENDER COUNTY AND THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER BASIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING AS FAR INLAND AS KINSTON AND GOLDSBORO THAT
WILL ROTATE SOUTH AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SHOULD HELP THE SOUTHERN EDGE
DETERIORATE AFTER 2-3 AM...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN OVER WITH BY 4-5
AM. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 11 PM
SUNDAY FOLLOWS...
PER LATEST ANALYSIS...5H CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL IS OFF
THE SE NC COAST AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED
OVERNIGHT AS THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO INTERACT AND SLOWLY ABSORB THIS
UPPER LOW INTO THE MAIN WESTERLY BELT. MODELS INDICATE THE
CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE MONDAY AND THEN GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE MAIN WESTERLIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. BY
12Z...MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LOW NOW NEARLY AN OPEN WAVE...AND
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE FROM CAPE HATTERAS. OVERALL...LOOK FOR
IMPROVING WX AND SLOWLY IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS FROM SW TO
NE...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. WILL INDICATE PARTIAL
CLEARING FOR BASIC SKY CONDITIONS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. VARIOUS
MODEL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE CONTINUED DECENT CHANCE FOR PCPN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
WEAKENING LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL PULLING AWAY...AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BECOMING MORE DOMINANT AS TIME GOES BY...HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO A DRIER FORECAST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. HAVE
TWEAKED MIN TEMPS LOWER GIVEN CAA AND MOST TEMPS ACROSS THE ILM CWA
HAVING REACHED WITHIN A CAT OF FORECAST MINS ALREADY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1:20 PM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL AMPLITUDE WILL RELAX THROUGH THE
PERIOD ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. FOCUS SHIFTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND INSTABILITY TO WHAT IS
BECOMING AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EARLY ON...A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES AROUND 0600 UTC TUESDAY. THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHEAST TO ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NO POPS OR EVEN LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH 38 DEGREES IN
LUMBERTON AND 44 WITH THE MAV FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE
GFS HAS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST
THAT MAY KEEP IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK LOWS A BIT BUT OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN
HEAVILY TOWARD THE MAV/GFS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1:20 PM SUNDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE CAROLINAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A BELT OF WESTERLIES
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE COAST. TEMPS BOUNCE BACK TO NORMAL
AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL. MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS ON THURSDAY
IN RESPONSE TO CONGEALING LOWS OFF CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A LARGELY
MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT MANAGES TO PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY BUT
NOT BEFORE A WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 80. FASTER TIMING OF THE
FRONT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER WHICH WOULD OBVIOUSLY LIMIT THE WARMTH AND
COULD FAVOR A FEW TSTMS IF FROPA BETTER COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING.
GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH THE EXTENT OF BUILDING PRESSURES AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH RAMIFICATIONS RANGING FROM A
RETURN TO CLIMO TEMPS TO DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO. EITHER WAY THIS
HIGH APPEARS FATED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
FAVORING A RETURN OF AT LEAST CLIMO TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED
CONVECTION BORNE OF MESOSCALE PROCESSES CERTAINLY HARD TO RULE OUT
BUT NO WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC FORCING IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...
RADAR AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST IT`S NOT OVER FOR NORTH
CAROLINA JUST YET. SHOWERS ROTATING SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL AFFECT THE ILM
TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z...WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
LBT VICINITY THROUGH 0730Z OR SO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO CEILING HEIGHTS...MVFR SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BUT IFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PARTICULARLY AFTER 08Z. AFTER DAYBREAK WINDS
WILL PICK UP...GUSTING OVER 20 KTS BY MID MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME
NEARLY CLEAR AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE
MORNING FOG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS AND MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA. ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR
TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT AS RADAR INDICATES A LARGE BATCH OF RAIN ABOUT
TO PUSH OFFSHORE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
WILL BEGIN TO WRAP UP AFTER 4 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 11 PM
SUNDAY FOLLOWS...
RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE ILM NC WATERS ONLY.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO SLIDE OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATE
THIS EVENING...AND FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY HRS.
THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN INDICATE WINDS WILL VEER FROM W TO NW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15
KT...EXCEPT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4
FT THRUOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5 FOOTERS MAINLY RESERVED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. A 2 TO 4 FT 7 TO 8 SECOND
PERIOD SOUTHERLY BORDERLINE SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT
SEAS. A 1 TO 3 FOOT WIND CHOP...WILL BLEND INTO THE SIG SEAS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1:20 PM SUNDAY...SOME STRONG WINDS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE. EXPECT A
NORTHERLY FLOW AT 20-25 KNOTS. GRADIENT DECREASES SLOWLY DURING THE
DAY ONLY TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AROUND 0600 UTC TUESDAY AS A
SECONDARY FRONT/SURGE MOVES ACROSS. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO A RANGE OF 20-25 KNOTS. GRADIENT DIMINISHES
DRAMATICALLY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE;RE MOVES FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO BASICALLY OVERHEAD. WINDS
STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN EARLY
TUESDAY. SEAS MAY ECLIPSE SIX FEET BRIEFLY TUESDAY BUT WILL NOT
ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE AND TIME
CONSIDERATIONS. SEAS FOLLOW THE WINDS TUESDAY DECREASING
DRAMATICALLY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1:20 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WEDNESDAY THAT MAY VEER WITH THE
APPROACH/DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS. THIS MAY
ALSO LEAD TO JUST ENOUGH OF AN UPTICK OF CONDITIONS THAT CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. THESE FACTORS REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT WHOSE TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN APPROACHES
FROM THE NNW. THE APPROACH OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
VEERING THROUGH THURSDAY DEPENDING ON ITS SPEED AND TIME OF ARRIVAL.
ASSUMING A THURSDAY EVENING FROPA A TURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO
WILL BE QUESTIONABLE...IN STRENGTH. THIS WILL END UP DICTATING
WHETHER FRIDAY SEES A SLIGHT DETERIORATION IN WIND AND SEAS OR AN
ACTUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THURSDAY SHOULD THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS PAN
OUT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK/TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...HDL/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
619 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE DYING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH ONLY A COUPLE
OF SITES FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT...AS SCHEDULED...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST...AS NORMAL EVENING
UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER ON...HOWEVER CURRENT WV IS STARTING TO
DEPICT A WK VORT OVER SRN SASK THAT BOTH NAM AND RUC HAVE
PRODUCING SOME RAIN IN NE ND AFT MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW 00Z NAM
COMES IN...BUT MAY HOLD ON TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
VALLEY A LITTLE FURTHER PAST MIDNIGHT THAN CURRENT FCST INDICATES.
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL SITES CURRENTLY MVFR OVC DECK JUST STARTING TO SHOW SOME
EROSION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. PESSIMISTIC FAR
WILL SCATTER OUT BY MIDNIGHT SO WILL SLOW THE TRANSITION FROM MVFR
TO VFR FOR FAR UNTIL EARLY MORNING. WILL KEEP CONDS MVFR THROUGH
AT LEAST NOON FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR FAR...AS NOT IN FAVOR OF
SCATTERING OUT AT NIGHT GIVEN EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY 03Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
SHORT TERM...
SFC LOW PRESSURE AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR KENORA ONTARIO. COLD
ADVECTION AND STRATOCU HAVE OVERSPREAD OF THE FCST AREA. WINDEST
CONDITONS REMAIN IN SE ND INTO WCTNRL MN WHERE SFC WINDS HAVE
REMAINED SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE
WIND ADVISORY IN THOSE AREAS OF SE ND/WCNTRL MN TIL 00Z. WINDS
LIGHTER OVER NE ND/NW MN WITH MOSTLY 15 TO 25 MPH. RADAR SHOWS THE
MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO MANITOBA WITH
WRAPAROUND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVERSPREAD NE ND/NW MN.
SOME WET SNOW/RAIN MIX STILL LIKELY IN LANGDON-ROLLA AREAS THOUGH
BULK OF PRECIP HAS MOVED NORTH.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS TO HOLD IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
CLEARING LATE IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BUT STILL HOLD UP AND ALONG WITH CLOUDS TEMPS WILL NOT
FALL TOO FAR WITH LOW TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. WILL REDUCE POPS SOME
BUT MAINTAIN IDEA OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
NE ND/NW MN.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY AS HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER ERN
ND IN THE AFTN. FAST ON ITS HEELS WILL BE NEXT SHORT WAVE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTN PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS.
12Z ECMWF IS MORE POTENT WITH PRECIP THAN OTHER MODELS BUT ALL DO
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE SO THAT RAISING POPS TO HIGH CHANCE OR
LIKELY SEEMS WARRANTED ESP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NW MN
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION
MOVES THROUGH.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER QUICK BREAK LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS
WILL SPREAD A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO NE ND AND FAR NW MN
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL THIS RUN AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SO WENT
WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING THICKNESSES PROPPING UP TEMPS
AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES. RIDGE OVER DAKS/MN BECOMING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE AS VIGOROUS WAVE DIGS INTO TROF OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED SLOWING DOWN PROGRESSION OF WAVE...AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN OVER THE FA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AIRMASS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUFFICIENTLY COOL ENOUGH
WHERE -RA/-SN MIX IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST.
AVIATION...
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THIS TAF PERIOD ARE CIGS AND WINDS. 18Z SFC ANAL
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MN AND CONTINUING TO LIFT NE.
BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH BLAYER WINDS 30 TO 35
KTS COMBINED WITH A SHALLOW ADIABATIC LAYER ALLOWING WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SFC. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NE...AND COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
DECREASE. THUS...WINDS IN THE TAFS REFLECT CONTINUED MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW. HOWEVER...WINDS UNRELIABLE AT TVF SO WINDS IN FORECAST REFLECT
GENERAL TREND OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND UPSTREAM CIGS MVFR TO IFR SO
REFLECTED TRENDS IN THE FORECAST. FREEZING LINE APPROACHING THE DVL
BASIN AND INCLUDED -RASN FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ024-028>030-038-
039-049-052-053.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-022>024-
027>032-040.
&&
$$
SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
937 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE RUC AND
GFS AND HRRR ARE SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND/OR ADVECTING THEM ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES ARE NECESSARY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 82 60 81 / 10 10 20 20
HOBART OK 59 82 59 80 / 20 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 84 60 83 / 10 20 20 30
GAGE OK 54 85 56 85 / 20 20 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 58 83 61 84 / 20 20 30 20
DURANT OK 59 81 60 77 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS
WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...GRIDS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE. A FEW TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRIDS...BUT THE TRENDS LOOK GOO.
AS OF 740 PM EDT...THE TREND OF A FASTER THAN PROGGED INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS IS CONTINUING THIS EVENING. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE A
LITTLE IN THE IDEA OF SOME RETURN FLOW STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
I-85 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. THEREFORE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED
OVER THE SW PART OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT.
AS OF 430 PM EDT...GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME THIN CI
WHICH IS RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE OPAQUE SKY COVER. MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. A TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA...AND
THESE AREAS MAY NEED TO HAVE TD/S ADJUSTED UP AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
SKY COVER ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ONLY A FEW CONTRAILS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED A
GATHERING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE GA COAST. A FEW MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NW
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC AND LAMP MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM THIS
SOLUTION...KEEPING THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS GA. I WILL USE
A COMPROMISE IN THE FORECAST...INDICATING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BY SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE L40S ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ORIENTED SW TO NE...WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY AND WV DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE...PLACING THE CWA WITHIN A 4-6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE TEENS
GUSTING INTO THE L20S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADILY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...PEAKING IN THE MID TO U70S EAST OF THE MTNS AND WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 50 DEGREES AND RH
VALUES SHOULD FALL BELOW 40 PERCENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT H85 FLOW WILL BECOME NEARLY DUE WEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 30
KTS...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT. CIN VALUES MAY CONTINUE TO RANGE ABOVE 40 J/KG EAST OF
THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
FLOW...POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LITTLE TO NO CHC EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. BEST QG FORCING REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW DUE TO W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE MTNS AS WELL.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGH CHC POP FOR THE WRN MTNS TAPERING OFF TO
LOW CHC BLUE RIDGE. ALLOWED A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWFA DURING THE EVENING GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SOME WEAK FORCING. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC OVER THE PIEDMONT IS LOW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER THE MTNS AND NRN
TIER GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR. ANY CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY END LATE WED NITE OR EARLY THU MORN WITH CLEARING
SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU NITE THEN SLIDES EAST FRI AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES BY TO OUR NW. THIS AND THE DEVELOPING SWLY
FLOW SHUD BE ENUF FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER...NO PRECIP
EXPECTED FOR NOW. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED NITE FALL
TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE THU NITE. HIGHS THU 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE CLEARING SKIES AND DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY OVER THE MTNS FRI AND FALL AROUND 5 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY NEXT TUESDAY. LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
SOME DEGREE OF UPPER FORCING WILL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SO I KEPT POPS IN THE 30S
SAT/SUN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS MONDAY
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS IN/KY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SE INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MON/EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...I MENTIONED POPS ONLY IN THE 20S FOR MON NIGHT /TUES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S AND SOME 80S
THROUGH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND OUR WORKSTATION WRF-ARW MODEL ARE INDICATING THAT STRATUS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE 18 UTC
MAV MOS IS FINALLY CARRYING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM 12-15 UTC
AT THE UPSTATE SITES. I/LL FOLLOW THIS TREND AND HAVE MVFR CIGS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT KCLT...ALBEIT
AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN THE UPSTATE. NO RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL OR
KHKY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT...VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 22 KTS AT MOST SITES IN THE AFTN.
NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE
MTNS TMRW. COVERAGE WILL GREATER OVER THE MTNS..ESP NEAR THE TN
LINE...BUT STILL NOT GREAT ENUF TO ADD ANYTHING TO THE KAVL TAF.
OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW
EARLY THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN POSSIBLE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE WED AND INTO
THURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
735 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS
WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT...THE TREND OF A FASTER THAN PROGGED INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS IS CONTINUING THIS EVENING. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE A
LITTLE IN THE IDEA OF SOME RETURN FLOW STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
I-85 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. THEREFORE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED
OVER THE SW PART OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT.
AS OF 430 PM EDT...GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME THIN CI
WHICH IS RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE OPAQUE SKY COVER. MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. A TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA...AND
THESE AREAS MAY NEED TO HAVE TD/S ADJUSTED UP AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
SKY COVER ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ONLY A FEW CONTRAILS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED A
GATHERING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE GA COAST. A FEW MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NW
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC AND LAMP MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM THIS
SOLUTION...KEEPING THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS GA. I WILL USE
A COMPROMISE IN THE FORECAST...INDICATING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BY SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE L40S ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ORIENTED SW TO NE...WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY AND WV DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE...PLACING THE CWA WITHIN A 4-6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE TEENS
GUSTING INTO THE L20S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADILY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...PEAKING IN THE MID TO U70S EAST OF THE MTNS AND WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 50 DEGREES AND RH
VALUES SHOULD FALL BELOW 40 PERCENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT H85 FLOW WILL BECOME NEARLY DUE WEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 30
KTS...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT. CIN VALUES MAY CONTINUE TO RANGE ABOVE 40 J/KG EAST OF
THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
FLOW...POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LITTLE TO NO CHC EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. BEST QG FORCING REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW DUE TO W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE MTNS AS WELL.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGH CHC POP FOR THE WRN MTNS TAPERING OFF TO
LOW CHC BLUE RIDGE. ALLOWED A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWFA DURING THE EVENING GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SOME WEAK FORCING. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC OVER THE PIEDMONT IS LOW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER THE MTNS AND NRN
TIER GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR. ANY CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY END LATE WED NITE OR EARLY THU MORN WITH CLEARING
SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU NITE THEN SLIDES EAST FRI AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES BY TO OUR NW. THIS AND THE DEVELOPING SWLY
FLOW SHUD BE ENUF FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER...NO PRECIP
EXPECTED FOR NOW. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED NITE FALL
TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE THU NITE. HIGHS THU 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE CLEARING SKIES AND DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY OVER THE MTNS FRI AND FALL AROUND 5 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY NEXT TUESDAY. LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
SOME DEGREE OF UPPER FORCING WILL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SO I KEPT POPS IN THE 30S
SAT/SUN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS MONDAY
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS IN/KY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SE INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MON/EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...I MENTIONED POPS ONLY IN THE 20S FOR MON NIGHT /TUES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S AND SOME 80S
THROUGH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND OUR WORKSTATION WRF-ARW MODEL ARE INDICATING THAT STRATUS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE 18 UTC
MAV MOS IS FINALLY CARRYING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM 12-15 UTC
AT THE UPSTATE SITES. I/LL FOLLOW THIS TREND AND HAVE MVFR CIGS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT KCLT...ALBEIT
AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN THE UPSTATE. NO RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL OR
KHKY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT...VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 22 KTS AT MOST SITES IN THE AFTN.
NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE
MTNS TMRW. COVERAGE WILL GREATER OVER THE MTNS..ESP NEAR THE TN
LINE...BUT STILL NOT GREAT ENUF TO ADD ANYTHING TO THE KAVL TAF.
OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW
EARLY THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN POSSIBLE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE WED AND INTO
THURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
300 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL WY WITH
WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT ALONG I-90 AND COLD FRONT DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHEAST CO. 7MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF LOW AS SHORTWAVE IS
RAPIDLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WY. HIGHLY ELEVATED RETURNS NOW
SHOWING UP AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND ON NOSE OF 100KT JET STREAK.
CONCERN THIS FORECAST IS DISPOSITION OF THESE STRONG WAVE.
12Z/18Z GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. IT BRINGS SHORTWAVE OUT
NEGATIVELY-TILTED REACHING EASTERN ND BY 12Z TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND RACES
INTO EASTERN ND BY 12Z TUESDAY. COLD FRONT BEHIND LOW RACES EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...PLOWING THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z.
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...LOW 50S TD/S POOLING GIVING AROUND 1KJ/KG
MLCAPE...BUT MLCIN FROM 50-100J/KG JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH CAP TO BREAK FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS...BUT
LATEST HRRR/LOCAL WRF MODEL SUGGESTS AS BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
OVERTAKES COLD FRONT JUST NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW...WE SHOULD SEE
A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOP. DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM...AND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS GIVEN
0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHING 20-30M/S. STORMS WOULD MOVE AROUND 45KTS
TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL WATCH MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENT FOR SIGNS OF
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES
FORECAST OF 7-11MB BEHIND INITIAL COLD FRONT. COMBINED WITH 850MB
WINDS INCREASING TO 55KTS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...IT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE
SURFACE OVER NORTHEAST WY/THE BLACK HILLS/SOUTHWEST SD EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN OVER NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD MID-
EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND COLD FRONT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND STRONG
DRYING AND LINKAGE THROUGH 700MB. LATEST RUC SHOWING SYSTEM A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT HEADLINES IN PLACE
WILL ACCOUNT FOR THAT SCENARIO. AS LOW MOVES INTO ND LATER THIS
EVENING...SECONDARY PRESSURE RISE SURGE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST
WY/NORTHWEST SD KEEPING WINDS GOING THERE. WINDS SPEEDS SOUTH OF
I-90 SHOULD DECREASE SOME AFTER 06Z.
TUESDAY...TIGHT GRADIENT WITH 50KT 850MB NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP
HIGH WINDS GOING OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY
FURTHER SOUTH ON THE SD PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.
EXTENDED...A MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COOL
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THURSDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY BEING SATURDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LIKELY TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF UPDATE
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING VERY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BRINGING VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WHILE
DECREASING. HOWEVER THE VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15
PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-
RAPID CITY-SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BADLANDS AREA-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS-
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR BADLANDS
AREA-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS-SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA-
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
BENNETT-JACKSON.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR FALL RIVER.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
BUTTE-HAAKON-HARDING-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO
PLAINS-PERKINS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYOMING BLACK HILLS.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CROOK AND WESTON COUNTIES-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WYOMING BLACK HILLS.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CROOK AND WESTON COUNTIES-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WYOMING BLACK HILLS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WESTON.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
NORTHEASTERN CROOK.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM....CALDERON
AVIATION...CALDERON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1244 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WINDS WILL CREATE SOME
PROBLEMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 35 MPH
WHILE WEST WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL RUN ABOUT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED. /08
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MESSY FORECAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH WIND...FIRE WEATHER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ALL CONCERNS. TO
START...ADDED THE REMAINING FEW COUNTIES IN NW IA TO THE WIND
ADVISORY WITH SLB ALREADY SUSTAINED AT 30 MPH. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE VERY WINDY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO SURGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE HOWEVER SO NOT EXPECTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO GET OUT OF HAND. WHAT WE HAVE SEEMS REASONABLE BUT
MAY NEED TO CUT BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN PLACES.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM
LBF AND UNR ARE VERY DRY AND VERY WARM. WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO
GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND THE LATEST NAM GIVES
US NOTHING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HRRR ALSO LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. SO...WILL MAINTAIN SOME 20 TO 30 POPS AND WITH THE
SHEAR STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT BUT STARTING TO
LOOK DIFFICULT. WILL NEED TO WATCH CENTRAL SD LATER TODAY FOR
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.
WILL GO AHEAD EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL AS ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE FOR THE
SD ZONES AND NW IA ZONES WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR SW
MN WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR SW MN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH. /08
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT/
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY
WILL BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
CUT OFF AS IT EMERGES IN THE WESTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
STRONG THETA E ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS TRIGGERING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT THESE STORMS
TO PERSIST IN THIS AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A MINOR WAVE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON EXPANDING THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/SHEAR AND
MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL
BE THE VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. ILL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CAP WEAKENS A BIT
THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME STORMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE
SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED STORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALSO OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SURFACE WINDS WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING AND AN STRONG LLJ IN PLACE. WHILE THE
COPIOUS CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS DO NOT PRESENT THE BEST MIXING
POTENTIAL...DO THINK SOME BORDERLINE ADVISORY SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
BE ATTAINABLE ACROSS OUR SD...MN...NE AND NORTHERN IA ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE TIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION RUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY SITUATION IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE
NORTH. WITH TODAYS HEADLINE IN PLACE...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING FOR
TUESDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMALS. BY
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HANDLING OF RIDGE AND TROUGH FEATURES AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. FOLLOWED THE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR
THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ300.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
020>022-031-032.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ301.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
090-097-098.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ900.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ249.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ255>258.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-050-052>071.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1110 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MESSY FORECAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH WIND...FIRE WEATHER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ALL CONCERNS. TO
START...ADDED THE REMAINING FEW COUNTIES IN NW IA TO THE WIND
ADVISORY WITH SLB ALREADY SUSTAINED AT 30 MPH. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE VERY WINDY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO SURGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE HOWEVER SO NOT EXPECTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO GET OUT OF HAND. WHAT WE HAVE SEEMS REASONABLE BUT
MAY NEED TO CUT BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN PLACES.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM
LBF AND UNR ARE VERY DRY AND VERY WARM. WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO
GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND THE LATEST NAM GIVES
US NOTHING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HRRR ALSO LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. SO...WILL MAINTAIN SOME 20 TO 30 POPS AND WITH THE
SHEAR STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT BUT STARTING TO
LOOK DIFFICULT. WILL NEED TO WATCH CENTRAL SD LATER TODAY FOR
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.
WILL GO AHEAD EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL AS ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE FOR THE
SD ZONES AND NW IA ZONES WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR SW
MN WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR SW MN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH. /08
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT/
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY
WILL BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
CUT OFF AS IT EMERGES IN THE WESTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
STRONG THETA E ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS TRIGGERING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT THESE STORMS
TO PERSIST IN THIS AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A MINOR WAVE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON EXPANDING THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/SHEAR AND
MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL
BE THE VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. ILL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CAP WEAKENS A BIT
THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME STORMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE
SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED STORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALSO OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SURFACE WINDS WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING AND AN STRONG LLJ IN PLACE. WHILE THE
COPIOUS CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS DO NOT PRESENT THE BEST MIXING
POTENTIAL...DO THINK SOME BORDERLINE ADVISORY SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
BE ATTAINABLE ACROSS OUR SD...MN...NE AND NORTHERN IA ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE TIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION RUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY SITUATION IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE
NORTH. WITH TODAYS HEADLINE IN PLACE...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING FOR
TUESDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMALS. BY
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HANDLING OF RIDGE AND TROUGH FEATURES AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. FOLLOWED THE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR
THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FORMING IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND LIFTING NORTH WITH TIME. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE AND
LOW CONFIDENCE...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS. STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT.
ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS LOOK HOPELESSLY CAPPED...SO ONLY INCLUDED CB
MENTION AT KHON TERMINAL FOR NOW.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ013-014.
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ038>040-050-052>071.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
916 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.UPDATE...
MCS ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF STORMS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THE LAST HOUR.
00Z RUC AND NAM SHOW CONVECTION WEAKENING THRU 06Z...ALTHOUGH WILL
KEEP LOW POPS IN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS OVER THE WESTERN 3RD
OF THE CWA A FEW HOURS LONGER...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. OTHERWISE
ONGOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE
NEEDED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION IS MAKING SLOW S/SW-WRD
PROGRESS THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SW-WRD THIS EVENING...BUT SHEAR APART/DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING KDRT. HAVE THEREFORE OPTED TO MENTION CB AROUND KDRT
LATER TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT
MENTION OF TSRA AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS IS
RAPIDLY TRENDING DOWNWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS
AOB 2KFT TO SETTLE IN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 06Z. CIGS
WILL LOWER AND SPREAD WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF IN THE NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AROUND/AFTER 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SITS UNDER THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM 700-250MB THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A
SLOW SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
NORTHERN MEXICO IS ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT EXPECT STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT QUESTION IS WHETHER
THEY CAN MAKE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO TX. ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY
CAPPED OVER OUR CWA...SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ANY STORMS THAT DO MAKE IT ACROSS MAY
BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WED LOOKS VERY SIMILAR
TO TODAY WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS MAKING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TX. THU THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL APPROACH TX AND THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MORE OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY FRI EVENING LEAVING DRY WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON ITS STRENGTH. GFS IS STRONGER. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE WEAKER ECMWF AND INCREASED TEMPS FOR MON AND TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 81 63 79 61 / 10 10 10 20 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 81 61 79 60 / 10 10 10 20 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 80 62 77 60 / 10 10 10 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 80 61 77 61 / 10 10 10 20 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 83 67 78 64 / 20 10 30 40 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 62 78 61 77 60 / 10 10 10 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 64 77 62 / 10 10 20 40 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 80 62 78 60 / 10 10 10 20 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 80 61 78 61 / 10 - 10 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 81 64 77 63 / 10 10 10 30 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 82 65 77 63 / 10 10 10 30 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION IS MAKING SLOW S/SW-WRD
PROGRESS THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SW-WRD THIS EVENING...BUT SHEAR APART/DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING KDRT. HAVE THEREFORE OPTED TO MENTION CB AROUND KDRT
LATER TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT
MENTION OF TSRA AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS IS
RAPIDLY TRENDING DOWNWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS
AOB 2KFT TO SETTLE IN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 06Z. CIGS
WILL LOWER AND SPREAD WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF IN THE NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AROUND/AFTER 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SITS UNDER THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM 700-250MB THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A
SLOW SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
NORTHERN MEXICO IS ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT EXPECT STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT QUESTION IS WHETHER
THEY CAN MAKE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO TX. ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY
CAPPED OVER OUR CWA...SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ANY STORMS THAT DO MAKE IT ACROSS MAY
BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WED LOOKS VERY SIMILAR
TO TODAY WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS MAKING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TX. THU THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL APPROACH TX AND THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MORE OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY FRI EVENING LEAVING DRY WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON ITS STRENGTH. GFS IS STRONGER. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE WEAKER ECMWF AND INCREASED TEMPS FOR MON AND TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 81 63 79 61 / 10 10 10 20 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 81 61 79 60 / 10 10 10 20 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 80 62 77 60 / 10 10 10 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 80 61 77 61 / 10 10 10 20 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 83 67 78 64 / 20 10 30 40 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 62 78 61 77 60 / 10 10 10 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 64 77 62 / 10 10 20 40 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 80 62 78 60 / 10 10 10 20 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 80 61 78 61 / 10 - 10 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 81 64 77 63 / 10 10 10 30 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 82 65 77 63 / 10 10 10 30 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1053 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NE OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT NOW CROSSING THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER. NO PRECIP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT SO FAR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MUCH COOLER OVER NE WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE BIGGEST STORY SO FAR HAS BEEN
THE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH SEEM TO BE PEAKING ABOUT NOW. HAVE SEEN
SEVERAL REPORTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM SHEBOYGAN TO SISTER BAY OF
GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND A FEW REPORTS IN THE 50S AT THE KEWAUNEE AND
ALGOMA MARINE STATIONS. INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. HAVE BEEN TREATING THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A LOCALIZED PHENOMENA...AND USING SPS/S
TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SEE A PRETTY SOLID
STRATO-CU DECK OVER MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS WITHIN A COLDER
AIRMASS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE WIND THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
TONIGHT...OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK
ENE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE SE 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST. WILL
PROBABLY SEE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AM TEMPTED TO PULL OUT POPS TONIGHT GIVEN A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
CU OF LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT UPSTREAM. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST
MINUTE TO LOOK AT THE LATEST TRENDS BEFORE YANKING POPS OUT. SHOULD
SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING WORK ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT BEFORE WRAP AROUND STRATO-CU DIVES IN FROM NW TO SE. DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE UPPER PENINSULA COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER N-C WISCONSIN AS
THE STRATO-CU WORKS INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE UNDER COLD ADVECTION. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL HANG AROUND WITH NW WINDS COLD
ADVECTING THE ENTIRE DAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE UP TO AROUND 800MB SUPPORTS A WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC
STRATO-CU FIELD HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCT LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING
HOURS OVER N-C WISCONSIN. LOOKED INTO SNOW POSSIBILITIES...BUT
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL EXTEND HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE COLD
AIR FOR SNOWFLAKES TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUDS. WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...KNOCKED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE HIGH
TEMPS...WHICH WOULD PLACE THEM INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE
50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY THERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS BY TO THE NORTH AND UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RECORD WARMTH EARLIER THIS MONTH HAS
STARTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME VEGETATION WHICH MAY BE THREATENED
BY THIS FROST OR FREEZE.
THEN A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SOME RATHER
ABRUPT SWINGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. TWO MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGHS
MOVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. THESE
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. UPPER RIDGE SHARPENS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD BRING 60F DEW POINTS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THEN SHARPLY COLDER TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVG THROUGH NE/EC WI LATE THIS EVG.
STRONG WEST WINDS WERE STILL OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS. GIVEN THE GUSTINESS THAT IS OCCURRING...
HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF LLWS...AND JUST KEEP GUSTS TO
30S KTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVERED NORTHERN WI...AND SHOULD SAG FARTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDS...AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWEST. CIGS WILL PROBABLY DROP TO
MVFR OVER NC/C/FAR NE WI LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. STRATUCUMULUS
SHOULD REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDDAY. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BRUSH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR ON WEDS EVG...AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
KIECKBUSCH
&&
.MARINE...THOUGH STABILITY WILL BE INCREASING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
LAKESHORE WITH GUSTS MEASURED BETWEEN 45 AND 50 KTS AT KEWAUNEE AND
ALGOMA. SINCE IMPACTS FROM STABILITY HAVE BEEN NON-EXISTENT SO
FAR...WILL EXTEND THE GALE WARNING THROUGH 03Z AFTER COORDINATION
WITH OFFICES TO THE SOUTH. ONCE THE GALE IS OVER...WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISH...THOUGH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DUE
LINGERING WAVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1029 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.UPDATE...
23Z HRRR AND LOCAL 4 KM WRF SHOWED THE NORTHERN ILLINOIS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO LIFTING
FROM AROUND 4 THSD FT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN OFF LATEST 01Z RUC SOUNDING. SOME LOW LEVEL
UPWARD MOTION BUT RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
LIKELY CAUSING TOO MUCH ENTRAINMENT IN ANY CUMULUS. ALSO MUCH OF
THE CUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT BUT STILL SOME GUST POTENTIAL TO 25
MPH AT TIMES WITH THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL AS WINDS AT THE SURFACE
DIMINISH IN LOW AREAS. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL HAVE SURFACE WINDS
IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
VFR EXPECTED WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 4 THSD FT. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.
POTENTIAL FOR THE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD AROUND THE STRONG LOW TO PUSH
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY. MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN IF THIS DOES PUSH SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALES BUT A BRISK SOUTHWEST WIND WILL
BECOME WEST ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENT/COMPACT 46 UNIT VORT MAX ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. ANY
VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS FAR SOUTH IS QUITE CHANNELIZED AND LITTLE
CONTRIBUTION TO VERTICAL MOTION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...CORE OF
STRONG 850 JET PEELS EAST THIS EVENING. GUSTS HAVE BEEN NEARING THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES. WILL BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT. SURFACE MOIST AXIS LEANING INTO
CWA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. BEST INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SOUTH PER SPC
MESO ANALYSIS. SOME DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED INTO SRN WI. HOWEVER
BETTER DEW POINTS ARE POOLING TO OUR SOUTH WITH MOIST AXIS GETTING
PINCHED A BIT INTO SW WI. SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD STILL
INITIATE A CELL OR TWO INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CU THUS FAR HAS
BEEN WELL CAPPED BUT WATCHING SW/SC WI IN EXISTING CU FIELD FOR ANY
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT. MAXES LIKELY TO BE REACHED THIS EVENING AS 70S READY TO
SPILL INTO SC WI. SOME MODIFICATION IN THE EAST WITH LOSS OF
HEATING BUT STILL AN EVENING MAX LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING 500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO
MORE RIDGING WITH TIME. SURFACE HIGH ALSO DRAWS CLOSER AS THE DAY
WEARS ON HELPING TO EASE BACK ON THE WINDS A BIT. CU RULE POINTS TO
GREATER COVERAGE CU IN THE NE CWA...PER COMBO OF RH
PROGS...BUFKIT...PROGGD PROXIMITY OF UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW.
SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
UPPER RIDGING KEEPS THIS PERIOD DRY. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
COLD ADVECTION DROPPING 850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE 0C...WITH 0C OR BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD LEADS TO
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. KEEPING THE AREAS OF FROST IN THE
COLDEST LOCATIONS WITH PATCHY FROST ELSEWHERE.
DRY AIR STREAMS INTO REGION WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH...WITH LOW TO MID 20 DEW POINTS IN THE EAST
AND LOW TO MID 30S WEST. SOME UPWARD MODIFICATION OF 925 MB
TEMPERATURES BRINGS UPPER 50S HIGH IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH LOW
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE FAR EAST NEARER
THE LAKE.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SOME TIMING CONCERNS RELATED TO DIFFERING CONFIGURATIONS AMONG
MODELS WITH TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE DIVIDED
POPS THIS PERIOD INTO 6-HOURLY GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE 06Z TO 18Z
FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS MOST LIKELY FOR PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS...AND EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO
MEDIUM.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE KEEPS POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN ZONAL FLOW BUCKLES TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF DEEPENING
WESTERN TROUGH. RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S FOR SATURDAY
AND 70S SUNDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE LAKE AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOW
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING
THE WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
UPPER SYSTEM EITHER CUTS-OFF PER GFS...OR REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE PER
LATEST ECMWF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SO FOLLOWED CONSENSUS BLEND
WHICH BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH NO ALL DAY RAINS...WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...STILL LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY DRY AND VFR FROPA. CONVECTION
ISOLATED AT BEST WITH ANY SVR POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTH PER SWODY1.
MAIN STORY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST 850 JET GRADUALLY
SHIFTING AWAY WITH WESTERLY JET TAKING HOLD POST FROPA. SUBSIDENCE
TAKES HOLD SO EXPECT DECENT MIXING INTO THE EVENING HOURS EVEN AFTER
PEAK MIXING DUE TO INSOLATION. COLD ADVECTION PLUS PROXIMITY TO
FRINGE OF UPPER CYCLONIC SUGGESTS SOME CU DEVELOPMENT FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY IN NE CWA.
MARINE...ASED ON TRENDS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE GALE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS LINGERING WARM SECTOR SOUTHWEST 850/925 JET MAX
GRADUALLY PEELS EAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ONCE THE
GALE EXPIRES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
659 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NE OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT NOW CROSSING THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER. NO PRECIP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT SO FAR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MUCH COOLER OVER NE WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE BIGGEST STORY SO FAR HAS BEEN
THE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH SEEM TO BE PEAKING ABOUT NOW. HAVE SEEN
SEVERAL REPORTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM SHEBOYGAN TO SISTER BAY OF
GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND A FEW REPORTS IN THE 50S AT THE KEWAUNEE AND
ALGOMA MARINE STATIONS. INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. HAVE BEEN TREATING THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A LOCALIZED PHENOMENA...AND USING SPS/S
TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SEE A PRETTY SOLID
STRATO-CU DECK OVER MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS WITHIN A COLDER
AIRMASS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE WIND THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
TONIGHT...OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK
ENE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE SE 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST. WILL
PROBABLY SEE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AM TEMPTED TO PULL OUT POPS TONIGHT GIVEN A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
CU OF LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT UPSTREAM. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST
MINUTE TO LOOK AT THE LATEST TRENDS BEFORE YANKING POPS OUT. SHOULD
SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING WORK ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT BEFORE WRAP AROUND STRATO-CU DIVES IN FROM NW TO SE. DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE UPPER PENINSULA COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER N-C WISCONSIN AS
THE STRATO-CU WORKS INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE UNDER COLD ADVECTION. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL HANG AROUND WITH NW WINDS COLD
ADVECTING THE ENTIRE DAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE UP TO AROUND 800MB SUPPORTS A WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC
STRATO-CU FIELD HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCT LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING
HOURS OVER N-C WISCONSIN. LOOKED INTO SNOW POSSIBILITIES...BUT
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL EXTEND HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE COLD
AIR FOR SNOWFLAKES TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUDS. WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...KNOCKED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE HIGH
TEMPS...WHICH WOULD PLACE THEM INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE
50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY THERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS BY TO THE NORTH AND UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RECORD WARMTH EARLIER THIS MONTH HAS
STARTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME VEGETATION WHICH MAY BE THREATENED
BY THIS FROST OR FREEZE.
THEN A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SOME RATHER
ABRUPT SWINGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. TWO MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGHS
MOVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. THESE
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. UPPER RIDGE SHARPENS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD BRING 60F DEW POINTS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THEN SHARPLY COLDER TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...S-SW WINDS WERE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT
OVER NE/EC WI...AND WERE QUITE GUSTY FROM THE WEST ACROSS NC/C WI
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVG...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME MARGINAL LLWS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
HAVE DISSIPATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS
THAT ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
WIDESPREAD WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS COVERED THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN AND
NW WI...AND WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF NC/C/FAR NE WI TONIGHT. CIGS
MAY DROP TO MVFR OVER C/NC WI LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD STRATUCUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND AT MOST
LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BRUSH ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN WI LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
KIECKBUSCH
&&
.MARINE...THOUGH STABILITY WILL BE INCREASING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
LAKESHORE WITH GUSTS MEASURED BETWEEN 45 AND 50 KTS AT KEWAUNEE AND
ALGOMA. SINCE IMPACTS FROM STABILITY HAVE BEEN NON-EXISTENT SO
FAR...WILL EXTEND THE GALE WARNING THROUGH 03Z AFTER COORDINATION
WITH OFFICES TO THE SOUTH. ONCE THE GALE IS OVER...WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISH...THOUGH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DUE
LINGERING WAVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
259 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND ALONG THE
850MB FRONT...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL OUT OF A 9KFT DECK OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HARD TO SAY IF ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
ARE REACHING THE GROUND OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THOUGH RUC
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE DRY WEDGE CENTERED AROUND 850MB THAT WOULD
INDICATE MOSTLY VIRGA. FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AS THIS LLJ AND 850MB
WARM FRONT MOVE NE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES AND PRECIP
TYPE REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT NO MATTER WHICH WAY YOU SLICE
IT. STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AN ALREADY POTENT LLJ
WILL CRANK UP TO 60-70KTS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING. AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL RAMP UP ON THE 300K SURFACE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
THINK WE WILL SEE A WARM AIR ADVECTION WING DEVELOP IN THIS AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. ADMITTEDLY SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS PRECIP...DUE TO THE VERY DRY AND SHALLOW POLAR AIRMASS THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE PRECIP
ARRIVAL. THIS PRECIP SHOULD THEN LIFT NE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THE LLJ VEERS. BUT THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND
PTYPE. THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD EAST
TONIGHT WHICH MODELS PROJECT CREATES A LARGE WARM NOSE IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE CENTERED AROUND 800MB. WITH TEMPS IN THIS WARM NOSE
INCREASING TO 6-7C...PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL LIQUID IN THIS LAYER
OVERNIGHT. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL REVOLVE AROUND SURFACE TEMPS AS THE
SHALLOW POLAR AIRMASS LINGERS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
40S. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IS ALSO QUITE DRY RESULTING IN WET BULB
TEMPS MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. PRECIP WILL BE TRANSIENT...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE
FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. IF TEMPS ONLY FALL TO 31 OR 32
DEGREES...ANY FREEZING RAIN MAY NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT DUE TO WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPS AND
IMPACTS...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEADLINES...THOUGH POTENTIAL WILL BE
THERE FOR ONE. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
ELEVATED CAPES REACHING OVER 200 J/KG.
TUESDAY...850MB WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING
WILL ARRIVE ABOVE 700MB. PROGGED SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST
BETWEEN 900-700MB...SO THINKING MAYBE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ONCE THE FGEN INDUCED PRECIP EXITS. UPPER LEVEL FRONT TIED TO THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE HEADWAY ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE AREA WILL
REMAIN CAPPED FOR CONVECTION...BOTH ELEVATED AND AT THE SURFACE.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT STILL CAN ONLY FIND CAPPING. SO IN THE END...NOT
EXPECTING THAT MUCH TO HAPPEN TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THEN A CANADIAN HIGH DROPS DOWN TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND BRINGS DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO OUR AREA. A
FROST OR FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BAY AND
LAKE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD NORMALLY NOT BE MENTIONED AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT THE RECORD WARMTH OF MARCH HAS CAUSED MANY
FRUIT TREES TO BLOSSOM AND ORCHARD OWNERS HAVE REQUESTED THAT WE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND JET ENERGY APPROACHES FROM
THE PLAINS STATES. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND PALM SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS HAVE BIG DIFFERENCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER MUCH OF THE TIME.
BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE TO RIDGING OVER
ALASKA AND THE POSSIBLE ESTABLISHMENT OF A POLAR VORTEX OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST
WHILE A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES.
PRECIP TYPE IS UNCERTAIN...MAINLY DUE TO THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS COOLING TAKES PLACE TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS
PROJECT TEMPS FALLING TO JUST BELOW FREEZING...THOUGH INCOMING CLOUD
COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MODELS PREDICT. AS A
RESULT...THINK FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...THOUGH IMPACTS MAY TURN OUT TO BE MINIMAL DUE TO
SURFACE TEMPS SO CLOSE TO FREEZING. THE PRECIP WILL PULL OUT LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAVE MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.
MPC
&&
.MARINE...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LLVL FLOW
INCREASES TO 45KTS AT 950MB. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CENTERED
AROUND 800MB... HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE SHALLOW CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THE BL A LITTLE MORE MIXY THAN PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...THINK LOW END GALES ARE A
POSSIBILITY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SHOULD SEE STABILITY
BECOME A BIG FACTOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SUBSIDING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TONIGHT PCPN POTENTIAL
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
230 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS...STORM AND
GRADIENT RELATED...TUE/TUE NIGHT.
A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH THE 26.12Z
NAM AND GFS TAKING THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN MN BY 00Z WED. THE
SYSTEM COMES IN STACKED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...TAKING ITS
NORTH-SOUTH COLD FRONT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 18-21Z TUE...AND
THEN ACROSS EASTERN WI BY 03Z WED.
BEFORE THE HEART OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN THERE WILL BE
STRONG LOW LEVEL 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...ALONG WITH ADVECTION ON THE ISENTROPIC
SFCS. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A
60+ KT LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN MN TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUING TO POINT TO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SATURATION COULD BE A CONCERN A NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING
X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER
NORTH...WITH SATURATION CONFINED UNDER 700 MB FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS...LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND DEEPER SATURATION MAKES PCPN MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOCALLY...MOSTLY NORTH OF A WABASHA MN TO BLACK RIVER FALLS WI LINE.
HOWEVER...CURRENT 88-D IMAGERY HAS AN EXPANDING BAND OF SHOWERS
WHICH HAVE BLOSSOMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. RUC13 WOULD SLIDE THIS BAND OF PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN PCPN FOCUS THEN TURNING FARTHER
NORTH. WILL WORK PCPN CHANCES WITH THIS IN MIND
TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOT A LOT OF
FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ACCORDING TO THE NAM/GFS. SOME MUCAPE OF 250-500
J/KG WORKS INTO NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. 0-3
KM SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AT 40-45 KTS FROM THE WEST. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...INVERTED-V
SHAPE. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AND IF ANY WOULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN. EVEN PERKY SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO
ACCELERATE SOME WIND TO THE SFC...WITH 40 MPH WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.
SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN TONIGHT...STAYING THAT WAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. 60 KT WINDS
BY 2000 FT...BUT ABOVE THE INVERSION. POST THE FRONT THOUGH...MIXING
IS DEEPER AND ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WON/T BE AS
STRONG...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS EXISTS. DON/T BELIEVE A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE
ACROSS THE OPEN AND UNSHELTERED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA
TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT...BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. IN ADDITION...COLDER...BUT
SEASONABLE AIR WILL RETURN...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING HELP
TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK THU.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST LOOK LIKELY. CONSIDERING THE RECENT VERY
WARM TEMPS AND EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON...COLD DAMAGE COULD
OCCUR TO TENDER VEGETATION AND COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS. A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
230 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RETURN FLOW POST A HIGH
INTERACTING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH A LOFT TO TRIGGER AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT-FRI. BOTH MODELS THEN
FAVOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SAT. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
TIMING...POSITIONING AND STRENGTH...BUT THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME
PCPN CHANCES IN THIS TIME FRAME. A STRONGER TROUGH AND SFC COLD
FRONT COULD THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AGAIN...DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
SIMILAR. SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO MOVE IN.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
1255 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BREEZY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS IN THE 4 TO 5 KFT RANGE. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS...GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KTS AT KLSE AND UP TO 30 KTS AT
KRST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A POTENTIAL CONCERN THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SURFACE AND VEER SOUTHWEST..INCREASING TO 60 KTS AT 2 KFT. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURFACE WINDS
SPEEDS...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED THIS EVENING IF SURFACE WINDS
DROP OFF. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE TUESDAY MORNING
AS MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLAN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 34 KTS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME. PLAN ON STRONG
WEST WINDS OF 17 TO 26 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 38 KTS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1256 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
325 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH MID WEEK IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY INTO TOMORROW AND WHETHER ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS A RESULT OF THE
COMBINATION OF A FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 850-500MB AND
THE EASTERN WING OF INCREASING 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
CONVECTION IS REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
THAT FEATURES A DEW POINT DEPRESSION OF ABOUT 35C AT 830MB PER THE
26.00Z MPX SOUNDING. THE QUESTION FOR THIS MORNING IS WITH HOW
LONG THE CONVECTION WILL HOLD ON FOR. THE 26.00Z NAM CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THIS FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION DRIFTING NORTH AND
STAYING STRONG THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 26.05Z AND PREVIOUS HRRR RUNS
SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION HOLDING ON INTO THE MORNING...HAVE
KEPT SOME DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING AT MEDFORD. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING
GOING UNTIL 8AM FOR TAYLOR COUNTY.
JUST AS THIS FIRST BAND OF FORCING WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON...925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 300-310K SURFACES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA WHILE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THIS
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSE SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES
STILL LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR THIS CONVECTION HOLDING ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FEEDING
INTO THESE SHOWERS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDER OCCURRING...BUT
NOTHING VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO GET ORGANIZED AND POSE A SEVERE THREAT.
AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH...THE MAIN CHANNEL OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OR POSSIBLY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
AS THIS MOISTURE FEED SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST AS WELL AND GET TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY MID AFTERNOON. THE 26.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
0-3KM MUCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT DOES CONVECT FURTHER SOUTH IN EASTERN IOWA
WHERE THIS INSTABILITY CROSSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
DESPITE 0-3KM WIND SHEAR BEING VERY FAVORABLE AT 40KTS...THE
PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IF THE COLD FRONT CAN PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A KICKER...A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO FORM THOUGH THE WINDOW
LOOKS VERY SMALL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A COOLER AND VERY DRY AIR MASS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM +10C
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND -2C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS
COLDER...YET SEASONAL...AIR MASS IN PLACE...LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
HAVE NOT PUT ANY FROST IN THE FORECAST YET SINCE WINDS APPEAR TO
STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FROM FORMING.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
325 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
THE 26.00Z GFS AND ECMWF GET OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW UP INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND BRING THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON IN. SOME DISCREPANCIES START
SHOWING UP ON FRIDAY AS THE 26.00Z GFS HOLDS ONTO THE
PRECIPITATION LONGER THAN THE 26.00Z ECMWF. THE 26.00Z ECMWF/GEM
BOTH BRING A MORE POTENT LOW THROUGH ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY THAN WHAT
THE 26.00Z GFS HAS. BEYOND THIS...THE GFS HOLDS UP THE TROUGH OUT
WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR NOW...HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF EACH RATHER
THAN TO GRAB ONTO ONE EXTREME OR THE OTHER WITH THE GFS BEING THE
WARM EXTREME AND THE ECMWF BEING THE COLD EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
1255 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BREEZY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS IN THE 4 TO 5 KFT RANGE. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS...GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KTS AT KLSE AND UP TO 30 KTS AT
KRST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A POTENTIAL CONCERN THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SURFACE AND VEER SOUTHWEST..INCREASING TO 60 KTS AT 2 KFT. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURFACE WINDS
SPEEDS...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED THIS EVENING IF SURFACE WINDS
DROP OFF. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE TUESDAY MORNING
AS MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLAN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 34 KTS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME. PLAN ON STRONG
WEST WINDS OF 17 TO 26 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 38 KTS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1255 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1224 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY.
ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED...WITH CONCERNS ON PCPN AND TYPE AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
OUT OF CANADA NOSING SOUTH INTO WI. FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FLOAT IN OFF LAKES. TO SOUTHWEST MID CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA...WITH FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF FGEN FORCING. FREEZE WARNING WILL
REMAIN AS IS.
FORECAST ATTENTION ON SIG SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
WESTERN TROF INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUE MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS TO MOVE EAST TODAY WITH
COLD FRONT RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AREA OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LI`S NEAR 0 SHIFTS EAST INTO REGION
TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES TO 40KTS...FOCUSED OVER NORTH THUS HIGHER POPS OVER
NORTHERN CWA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LAYER BELOW 800MB HAS TO BE
OVERCOME THIS EVENING...TRENDED POPS LOWER EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PCPN
TYPE ALSO IN QUESTION. DEPTH OF THE BELOW FREEZING LAYER ON
SOUNDINGS DEEP ENOUGH TO REFREEZE...WHILE CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS
SLEET. THOUGH CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT FZRA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS...THEN WARM TOWARD MORNING...
LIMITING ZR. WILL NOT PUT ZR IN GRIDS ATTM AND PASS CONCERNS
REGARDING IT ON TO NEXT SHIFT.
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO CWA LATE IN DAY TUE. MODELS SUGGEST
POSSIBLE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF FRONT. INSTABILITY
LIMITED WITH DEW POINTS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
INSTABILITY MAINLY FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BE A STABILIZING FACTOR AND LIMIT
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. HAVE BACKED POPS BACK DOWN INTO
SCATTERED RANGE FOR TUE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO
NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BEEN CONTEMPLATING IF A
SMALL CHANCE WOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS THE EAST. DO THINK IF ANY
ACTIVITY DOES FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL RACE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. SOME CONCERNS
TONIGHT THAT THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING THE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.
VERY STRONG WINDS AT 925MB...COMBINED WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND 850MB COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HELP MIX SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HAVE GONE WITH BLUSTERY
WORDING FOR NOW IN THE ZONES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW GUSTS
TO OVER 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW OVER FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TONIGHT...BOTH THE GFS/WRF
INDICATING 500MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHILE THE
BOTH MODELS DO SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK TROUGH/COLD
FRONT. DID EXPAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND NOW
INCLUDES MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY...A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE BAY WITH AREAS OF
FROST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RECENT
RECORD WARMTH...THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED VERY EARLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. HAVE ADDED FROST TO THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND STILL LOOKS MUDDLED
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THEREFORE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST
WHILE A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES.
PRECIP TYPE IS UNCERTAIN...MAINLY DUE TO THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS COOLING TAKES PLACE TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS
PROJECT TEMPS FALLING TO JUST BELOW FREEZING...THOUGH INCOMING CLOUD
COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MODELS PREDICT. AS A
RESULT...THINK FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...THOUGH IMPACTS MAY TURN OUT TO BE MINIMAL DUE TO
SURFACE TEMPS SO CLOSE TO FREEZING. THE PRECIP WILL PULL OUT LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAVE MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.
MPC
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE ALLOWED TO RUN THROUGH 15Z. WINDS
HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA...THOUGH WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP
OFF. INCREASING SOUTHEAST...SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LLVL
FLOW INCREASES TO 40KTS AT 925MB. UNDER WAA REGIME HAVE CONCERNS
THAT A STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS
DOWN...WITH GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SAME. WILL STAY WITH STRONG
SMALL CRAFT WORDING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
645 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
325 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH MID WEEK IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY INTO TOMORROW AND WHETHER ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS A RESULT OF THE
COMBINATION OF A FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 850-500MB AND
THE EASTERN WING OF INCREASING 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
CONVECTION IS REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
THAT FEATURES A DEW POINT DEPRESSION OF ABOUT 35C AT 830MB PER THE
26.00Z MPX SOUNDING. THE QUESTION FOR THIS MORNING IS WITH HOW
LONG THE CONVECTION WILL HOLD ON FOR. THE 26.00Z NAM CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THIS FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION DRIFTING NORTH AND
STAYING STRONG THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 26.05Z AND PREVIOUS HRRR RUNS
SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION HOLDING ON INTO THE MORNING...HAVE
KEPT SOME DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING AT MEDFORD. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING
GOING UNTIL 8AM FOR TAYLOR COUNTY.
JUST AS THIS FIRST BAND OF FORCING WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON...925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 300-310K SURFACES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA WHILE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THIS
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSE SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES
STILL LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR THIS CONVECTION HOLDING ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FEEDING
INTO THESE SHOWERS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDER OCCURRING...BUT
NOTHING VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO GET ORGANIZED AND POSE A SEVERE THREAT.
AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH...THE MAIN CHANNEL OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OR POSSIBLY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
AS THIS MOISTURE FEED SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST AS WELL AND GET TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY MID AFTERNOON. THE 26.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
0-3KM MUCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT DOES CONVECT FURTHER SOUTH IN EASTERN IOWA
WHERE THIS INSTABILITY CROSSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
DESPITE 0-3KM WIND SHEAR BEING VERY FAVORABLE AT 40KTS...THE
PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IF THE COLD FRONT CAN PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A KICKER...A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO FORM THOUGH THE WINDOW
LOOKS VERY SMALL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A COOLER AND VERY DRY AIR MASS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM +10C
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND -2C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS
COLDER...YET SEASONAL...AIR MASS IN PLACE...LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
HAVE NOT PUT ANY FROST IN THE FORECAST YET SINCE WINDS APPEAR TO
STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FROM FORMING.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
325 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
THE 26.00Z GFS AND ECMWF GET OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW UP INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND BRING THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON IN. SOME DISCREPANCIES START
SHOWING UP ON FRIDAY AS THE 26.00Z GFS HOLDS ONTO THE
PRECIPITATION LONGER THAN THE 26.00Z ECMWF. THE 26.00Z ECMWF/GEM
BOTH BRING A MORE POTENT LOW THROUGH ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY THAN WHAT
THE 26.00Z GFS HAS. BEYOND THIS...THE GFS HOLDS UP THE TROUGH OUT
WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR NOW...HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF EACH RATHER
THAN TO GRAB ONTO ONE EXTREME OR THE OTHER WITH THE GFS BEING THE
WARM EXTREME AND THE ECMWF BEING THE COLD EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY INTO TUESDAY
645 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCT -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WITH THE FORCING ELEVATED AND A DRIER LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA...CIGS/VSBYS LOOKING TO REMAIN VFR WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE -SHRA. WITH ANY -TSRA ISOLATED...ONLY INCLUDED A CB MENTION FOR
THE LATER MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT WEAKENS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH A LULL IN THE -SHRA...THEN INCREASES AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT AND INCREASING EAST/SOUTHEAST SFC-850MB
FLOW...CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY -SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA TONIGHT AGAIN LOOK
TO REMAIN VFR. WITH SCT COVERAGE AND THE -SHRA LOOKING TO BE LIGHT
ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA TODAY/TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN BRISK EAST/ SOUTHEAST WINDS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER/OPEN TERRAIN SITES LIKE
KRST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TUE...SWINGING THE
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. SUBSIDENCE AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25KT G35KT MUCH OF TUE...
AGAIN MAINLY AT THE HIGHER/OPEN TERRAIN SITES LIKE KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
325 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
457 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY.
ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED...WITH CONCERNS ON PCPN AND TYPE AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
OUT OF CANADA NOSING SOUTH INTO WI. FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FLOAT IN OFF LAKES. TO SOUTHWEST MID CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA...WITH FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF FGEN FORCING. FREEZE WARNING WILL
REMAIN AS IS.
FORECAST ATTENTION ON SIG SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
WESTERN TROF INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUE MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS TO MOVE EAST TODAY WITH
COLD FRONT RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AREA OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LI`S NEAR 0 SHIFTS EAST INTO REGION
TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES TO 40KTS...FOCUSED OVER NORTH THUS HIGHER POPS OVER
NORTHERN CWA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LAYER BELOW 800MB HAS TO BE
OVERCOME THIS EVENING...TRENDED POPS LOWER EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PCPN
TYPE ALSO IN QUESTION. DEPTH OF THE BELOW FREEZING LAYER ON
SOUNDINGS DEEP ENOUGH TO REFREEZE...WHILE CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS
SLEET. THOUGH CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT FZRA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS...THEN WARM TOWARD MORNING...
LIMITING ZR. WILL NOT PUT ZR IN GRIDS ATTM AND PASS CONCERNS
REGARDING IT ON TO NEXT SHIFT.
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO CWA LATE IN DAY TUE. MODELS SUGGEST
POSSIBLE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF FRONT. INSTABILITY
LIMITED WITH DEW POINTS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
INSTABILITY MAINLY FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BE A STABILIZING FACTOR AND LIMIT
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. HAVE BACKED POPS BACK DOWN INTO
SCATTERED RANGE FOR TUE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO
NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BEEN CONTEMPLATING IF A
SMALL CHANCE WOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS THE EAST. DO THINK IF ANY
ACTIVITY DOES FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL RACE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. SOME CONCERNS
TONIGHT THAT THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING THE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.
VERY STRONG WINDS AT 925MB...COMBINED WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND 850MB COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HELP MIX SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HAVE GONE WITH BLUSTERY
WORDING FOR NOW IN THE ZONES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW GUSTS
TO OVER 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW OVER FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TONIGHT...BOTH THE GFS/WRF
INDICATING 500MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHILE THE
BOTH MODELS DO SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK TROUGH/COLD
FRONT. DID EXPAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND NOW
INCLUDES MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY...A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE BAY WITH AREAS OF
FROST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RECENT
RECORD WARMTH...THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED VERY EARLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. HAVE ADDED FROST TO THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND STILL LOOKS MUDDLED
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THEREFORE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...THE MAIN AREA OF MVFR CIGS THAT WAS OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA
EARLIER IN THE EVENING DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED INTO NE WI...BUT PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE/BAY AND MOVE INTO
NE/EC WI. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES...BUT KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FOR BKN015-020 AT ATW/GRB THROUGH
12Z/MON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL WI LATE
THIS EVENING...BUT SHOWERS OVER SE MN SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONDAY. SCT SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
EVG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. IN ADDITION...SOME LLWS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT RHI/AUW/CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING.
KIECKBUSCH
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE ALLOWED TO RUN THROUGH 15Z. WINDS
HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA...THOUGH WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP
OFF. INCREASING SOUTHEAST...SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LLVL
FLOW INCREASES TO 40KTS AT 925MB. UNDER WAA REGIME HAVE CONCERNS
THAT A STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS
DOWN...WITH GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SAME. WILL STAY WITH STRONG
SMALL CRAFT WORDING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021.
&&
$$
TE/ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1149 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW STRATO-CU DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY EARLIER
TODAY AS MIXING INTO DRIER AIR OVERWHELMED THE SHALLOW COOL AND
MOIST AIRMASS. STILL SOME LINGERING CU OVER EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THOUGH TRENDS SUPPORT IT DISSIPATING AS WELL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. UPSTREAM IS PRETTY QUIET...WITH ONLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS AND HEADLINES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS INCOMING AIRMASS
FROM CANADA IS QUITE DRY AND WILL DROP PWATS TO UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. THOUGH AIRMASS IS VERY DRY...NOT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE SCT-BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER NE WISCONSIN WHERE NE WINDS
FUNNELED DOWN THE BAY...AND ALSO OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE BL
RATHER BREEZY. NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE 1000-850MB WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS...WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR DECOUPLING. AM GOING
TO LEAN TOWARDS DECOUPLING OCCURRING...DUE TO SANDY SOIL EFFECTS AND
CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...MID TWENTY
LOWS SEEM PERFECTLY REASONABLE UP NORTH...AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO
ADJUST HEADLINES. DID RAISE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND WIND. LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S HERE.
MONDAY...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STALL OVER SW WISCONSIN TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL RETURN NE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT
STARTS RETURNING NORTH. NE WISCONSIN WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...BUT CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
EVERYWHERE.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE WEATHER WILL BE
MORE SEASONABLE THAN THE LAST TWO WEEKS WITH FLATTER ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SLEET TO BE
MIXED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LOTS OF SHEAR AND DECENT UPPER
SUPPORT. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LACKING THOUGH WHICH WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF
MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
CANADIAN HIGH SINKS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIKELY HAVE
SOME SUB FREEZING NIGHTS...WHICH IS COMPLETELY NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT MORE OF A CONCERN THIS YEAR DUE TO UNUSUAL
WARMTH THAT HAS STARTED AN EARLY GROWING SEASON. BIG DIFFERENCES
FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ALMOST 180
DEGREES OUT OF PHASE OVER OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...THE MAIN AREA OF MVFR CIGS THAT WAS OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA
EARLIER IN THE EVENING DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED INTO NE WI...BUT PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE/BAY AND MOVE INTO
NE/EC WI. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES...BUT KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FOR BKN015-020 AT ATW/GRB THROUGH
12Z/MON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL WI LATE
THIS EVENING...BUT SHOWERS OVER SE MN SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONDAY. SCT SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
EVG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. IN ADDITION...SOME LLWS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT RHI/AUW/CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING.
KIECKBUSCH
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-019-
021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1152 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
CONFIDENCE GROWING THAT STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE PANHANDLE
LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWING CDR...AIA AND
SNY GOING DOWN BELOW IFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPING WINDS
AROUND 09Z OR SO. VERY CLOSE T/TD SPREAD ALREADY GETTING SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT AIA AND SNY. SO FEEL PRETTY GOOD THAT THEY WILL GO
DOWN FROM 09Z TO 15-16Z OR SO. AS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS TO REALLY RAMP UP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
CENTRAL WYOMING AROUND NOON TIME MONDAY. ALL AIRPORTS WILL HAVE
WIND ISSUES AFTER 18Z OR SO.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
UPDATE...
DENSE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS DOWN ACROSS
AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE REPORTED CURED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LESS WINDS HAVE ALLEVIATED ANY FIRE DANGERS TODAY. THUS THE RED
FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED A LITTLE WHILE AGO.
ATTENTION TURNS TO MONDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT
UNFOLDING. WENT AHEAD UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES TO RED
FLAG WARNINGS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OUT INTO THE
PANHANDLE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...00Z TAFS
MAIN CONCERN FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS
MONDAY LOOK TO BE WINDS. A POWERFAL...YET DRY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SET TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING TONIGHT...CREATING VERY
STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
SPREAD OUT INTO THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STARTUS LOOKS TO
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HRRR FORECASTING IFR
CEILINGS AROUND 07Z OR SO. HAVE DELAYED ONSET SOME...BUT WILL GET
A BETTER GRASP ON THE 06Z TAFS.
CLAYCOMB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH DECENT MIXING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. LOW TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHEAST WILL AID IN FOG AND LOW CLOUD
FORMATION NORTH OF A LUSK TO ALLIANCE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY...IMPRESSIVELY STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES TO EASTERN WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON AS ITS ASSOCIATED
POWERFUL PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALL
FACTORS POINTING TO A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT AFTER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THUS WE HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE AND ALSO TO GIVE OUR
CUSTOMERS AN EARLY HEADS UP ON THE STRONG WINDS. COMBINATION OF
STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION INDICATED ON THE 500-300 MB AND 700-500 MB
QG PROGS...ALONG WITH PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PERFECT TIMING ON COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUGGEST A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EVEN 700 MB WINDS PROGGED FROM
50-65 KNOTS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THESE WINDS WILL BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE DUE TO DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM
SUBSIDENCE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE.
ALTHOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SCANT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF A LARAMIE TO CHADRON LINE. QUITE A VARIANCE IN NAM AND
GFS PROGGED HIGH TEMPERATURES AT SOME LOCATIONS...WILL BLEND IN
THE MIDDLE AND BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES FOR THE MOST
LIKELY FORECAST.
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENT
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL AS DECENT DOWNWARD MOTION INDICATED ON THE 500-300 MB AND
700-500 MB QG PROGS...WILL EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9
PM...THEN WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA...THOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS CONTINUE HIGH WINDS
BEYOND 9 PM.
TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WEST TO EAST...AND WEAKER SURFACE
THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A MILD NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT FOR MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. THE TREND OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE WILDLAND FIRE DANGER. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO
CRITICAL LEVELS...HOWEVER WINDS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
NOT REACH CRITERIA. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RANGE WILL MEET
WIND CRITERIA BUT FUELS ARE NOT READY FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THIS
COULD CHANGE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK WITH THE LACK OF
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AMPLIFIES IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY...
WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...IFR CEILINGS SLOW TO SCATTER AT
SIDNEY...BUT SHOULD DO SO BY MID AFTERNOON AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AIRFIELDS AND SCOTTSBLUFF WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM CHADRON THROUGH ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY.
FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30
MPH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE DISTRICT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING. MORE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS SOME OF THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ101-
WYZ102-WYZ106-WYZ107-WYZ108-WYZ116-WYZ117-WYZ118-WYZ119.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 9 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ101-
WYZ102-WYZ106-WYZ107-WYZ108-WYZ116-WYZ117-WYZ118-WYZ119.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ104-
WYZ105-WYZ109-WYZ110-WYZ111-WYZ113-WYZ115.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 9 PM MONDAY FOR NEZ002-
NEZ003-NEZ019-NEZ020-NEZ021-NEZ054-NEZ055-NEZ095-NEZ096.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR NEZ002-
NEZ003-NEZ019-NEZ020-NEZ021-NEZ054-NEZ055-NEZ095-NEZ096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1139 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.UPDATE 28/06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
REMOVED ADV FROM AFD...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. /REV
.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SFC TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LOW PRESSURE IS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH CNTRL IA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS DOWNSLOPE PROPERTIES INITIALLY REMAINING MILD YET MUCH
DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ADVECTING IN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER PV ANOMALY OVER SRN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK EAST AND WILL BE
OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 00Z. SOME ASSOCIATED KINEMATIC
FORCING WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
WARNING AREA. RUC AND NAM PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP
LOCATED NEAR 750 MB WHICH DOES NOT ERODE UNTIL AFTER 23Z WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL COOLING AND KINEMATICS WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE.
POSSIBLE A STORM OR TWO MAY FIRE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST BUT OVERALL
THE CURRENT INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REALIZED UNTIL IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE.
A FEW SITES NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM MOMENT THOUGH OVERALL
MOST ARE BELOW. HAVE TRIMMED PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY BUT HAVE KEPT
THE NORTH TO KEEP COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING SITES. HAVE MOVED
END TIME UP TO 7 PM WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND MIXING.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TWO PRIMARY SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH IN THIS PERIOD. WEAK RIDGE
APPROACHING THE MO VALLEY PRECEDING SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CURRENT EAST PACIFIC LONG WAVE THROUGH. THIS WAVE SHOULD REACH THE
HIGH PLAINS LATE TOMORROW WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...WILL INCREASE WARM ADVECTION INTO THE MO VALLEY. THETA-E
ADVECTION ADVANCES INTO SWRN IA COINCIDENT WITH ELEVATED CAPE
GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN NW INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND ERN MN...MODEL 300K SURFACES NEAR INVERSION TOP SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND SATURATION EARLY THU MORNING FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM WHERE BOTH NAM AND GFS DEPICT
1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPES BECOMING UNCAPPED JUST WEST OF MO RIVER
DURING PEAK HEATING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT
THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AIDED BY LARGE SCALE
FORCING WITH WAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MCS TO DEVELOP AND THEN
LIKELY WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. REGARDING
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING EVENT...ELEVATED NATURE AND FAIRLY WEAK
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER EARLY THU SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL. MOST LIKELY SEVERE CHANCES LOOK TO
BE DURING PEAK HEATING TAPPING BETTER 0-6KM SHEAR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHEN AND IF CONVECTION BECOMES SURFACE BASED.
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHT CHANCES FRI NIGHT
WITH NEXT LARGE SYSTEM IN THE OFFING EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
SUGGESTING FORCING INCREASING SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST SHEAR SEEMS TO REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH AND INSTABILITY IS UNREMARKABLE AT THIS POINT SO DO NOT
SEE ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT. DIRTY NW
FLOW WILL KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TUE. TEMPS
WILL DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THIS...BUT ONLY DOWN TO ABOUT CLIMO. NO
FREEZING TEMPS OR FROST ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION...28/06Z
VFR TO UNLIMITED CIGS EXPECTED FOR THE NIGHT WITH SCT150 WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TAKING AIM AT SOUTHERN REGIONS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
WINDS HAVE RELAXED...BUT WILL INCREASE AS EXPECTED AT 15Z WITH
MIXING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH 23Z. AFT 23Z...CIGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST BUT REMAIN VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT EAST
WINDS PRIOR TO INCREASING RAPIDLY 6 TO 12 HOURS AFT END OF TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON/REV
AVIATION...REV
LONG TERM...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
111 AM MDT WED MAR 28 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BEST ON LATEST
SATELLITE MODEL DATA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CLOUD COVER
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND DECREASED. LATEST HRRR BRINGS SOME FOG
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSERTED
PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA FROM 09Z TO 14Z. ADJUSTED THE
DEWPOINTS/WINDS PER LATEST RUC/HRRR. 00Z SOUNDINGS AND NAM WOULD
INDICATE THAT EVEN THOUGH THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THE
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY VERY DRY AND CAPPED ALOFT. SO LEFT ANY MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
CANCELLED RED FLAG WARNING EARLY AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY. CURRENTLY RATHER THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS BEING CAUSE BY RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF MID/UPPER JET THAT REMAINS/MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
EVENING. WIND FIELD IS RATHER LIGHT RIGHT NOW WITH RUC/HRRR
CATCHING THE WIND FIELD NICELY SO ADJUSTED USING THEM.
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS SHOWING A RATHER HIGH
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE CINH LOOKS STRONG
BUT WITH SOME POCKETS OF WEAKNESS. QUESTION WILL THERE BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO GET THIS FULLY REALIZED. WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THROUGH THE EVENING AND LOOK AT LATEST MODEL DATA/00Z
SOUNDINGS TO SEE IF NEED TO ADD SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FLATTEN
IT OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNSEASONABLY MILD FOR LATE MARCH UNDER THIS REGIME.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS
APPROACHING THE WICHITA AREA WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S ARE BEING PUSHED INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
IN THE SHORT TERM AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AS A LEE
TROUGH AND RETURN SURFACE FLOW SET UP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY RETURN TO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT A STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW MOVING ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME GIVEN 700 MB WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. HAVE
INCLUDED LOW POPS AND SHOWERS MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THIS
AREA. KEPT THUNDER OUT FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF GOOD INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM MDT WED MAR 28 2012
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER IT WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN WITH APPROACH
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. IT IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS...TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER WITH A JET MAX FORECAST TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IT
COULD EASILY TURN INTO OUR NEXT HIGH WIND AND FIRE WEATHER EVENT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT AS RIDGE REBUILDS TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING
AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
INTERESTING SET OF TAFS. LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR TO
OUR SOUTH AND WILL EVENTUALLY GET DRAWN UP INTO THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE A LITTLE AND NOW APPEAR MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING UP LOWER CEILINGS. CONSIDERING THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW
WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...DO NOT
THINK THE MODELS ARE UNREASONABLE IN THEIR DEPICTION. AS A RESULT
BY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...THE CEILINGS LOWER
NEAR TO MVFR OR INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN UP INTO THE AREA NEAR THE
END OR JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1056 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BEST ON LATEST
SATELLITE MODEL DATA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CLOUD COVER
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND DECREASED. LATEST HRRR BRINGS SOME FOG
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSERTED
PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA FROM 09Z TO 14Z. ADJUSTED THE
DEWPOINTS/WINDS PER LATEST RUC/HRRR. 00Z SOUNDINGS AND NAM WOULD
INDICATE THAT EVEN THOUGH THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THE
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY VERY DRY AND CAPPED ALOFT. SO LEFT ANY MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
CANCELLED RED FLAG WARNING EARLY AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY. CURRENTLY RATHER THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS BEING CAUSE BY RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF MID/UPPER JET THAT REMAINS/MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
EVENING. WIND FIELD IS RATHER LIGHT RIGHT NOW WITH RUC/HRRR
CATCHING THE WIND FIELD NICELY SO ADJUSTED USING THEM.
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS SHOWING A RATHER HIGH
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE CINH LOOKS STRONG
BUT WITH SOME POCKETS OF WEAKNESS. QUESTION WILL THERE BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO GET THIS FULLY REALIZED. WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THROUGH THE EVENING AND LOOK AT LATEST MODEL DATA/00Z
SOUNDINGS TO SEE IF NEED TO ADD SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FLATTEN
IT OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNSEASONABLY MILD FOR LATE MARCH UNDER THIS REGIME.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS
APPROACHING THE WICHITA AREA WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S ARE BEING PUSHED INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
IN THE SHORT TERM AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AS A LEE
TROUGH AND RETURN SURFACE FLOW SET UP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY RETURN TO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT A STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW MOVING ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME GIVEN 700 MB WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. HAVE
INCLUDED LOW POPS AND SHOWERS MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THIS
AREA. KEPT THUNDER OUT FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF GOOD INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THURSDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD NORTH WINDS GUSTING 30 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
FRIDAY...DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
WHICH BY 00Z SUNDAY SHOULD BE COMING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. BY 00Z TUESDAY
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND MAY BECOME BREEZY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES
IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE 80S FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER 70S EAST. ON MONDAY
EXPECTED MID 50S TO LOW 60S WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPS AS SUNDAYS SYSTEM LIFTS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER STORM MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
INTERESTING SET OF TAFS. LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR TO
OUR SOUTH AND WILL EVENTUALLY GET DRAWN UP INTO THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE A LITTLE AND NOW APPEAR MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING UP LOWER CEILINGS. CONSIDERING THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW
WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...DO NOT
THINK THE MODELS ARE UNREASONABLE IN THEIR DEPICTION. AS A RESULT
BY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...THE CEILINGS LOWER
NEAR TO MVFR OR INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN UP INTO THE AREA NEAR THE
END OR JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
20 PERCENT AND NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH MAY CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN
NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST AROUND 30 MPH LATE
IN THE DAY TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE
KANSAS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY BELOW 20 PERCENT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM....007
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
132 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHRTWV/STACKED LO MOVING ENEWD THRU NRN MN ON TOP OF MEAN RDG
OVER THE SE CONUS. PCPN/WARM CONVEYOR BELT WELL E OF THE LO HAS
MOVED E OF THE CWA...BUT LO CLDS LINGER IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST LYR
ASSOCIATED WITH SHARP WAD INVRN DEPICTED ON THE 12Z RAOBS. SKIES ARE
MOCLR OVER MN UNDER THE DRY SLOT/JET SURGE REGION OF THE LO...AND
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S IN THAT AREA. DESPITE
THIS SHARP WAD STABILITY...GUSTY S WINDS UP TO 50 MPH UNDER SHARP
PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE LO AND RETREATING HI PRES OVER SE ONTARIO
HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE...PROMPTING ISSUANCE
OF WIND ADVY. IN FACT...THE 12Z MPX RAOB INDICATED A WIND SPEED OF
61KTS AT 3K FT AGL WITHIN THE STABLE INVRN LYR. THE S WIND OFF THE
RELATIVELY CHILLY LK MI WATERS HAVE ENHANCED THE LLVL STABILITY AND
PREVENTED THE WINDS IN THAT AREA FM BEING AS STRONG AS NEAR LK SUP.
FARTHER TO THE W...DEEP WRAP ARND MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z BISMARCK
RAOB IS MOVING INTO NW NW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINDS/CLD TRENDS AND
PSBL WRAP ARND -SHRA AS MN LO MOVES ACRS NRN LK SUP AND INTO SE
ONTARIO ON WED.
TNGT...SHRTWV/CLOSED LO IN MN ARE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SE ONTARIO
JUST NE OF THE SAULT BY 12Z WED. AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY WITH THE APRCH OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG. SO WL LET THE GOING WIND ADVY
EXPIRE AT 21Z AS SCHEDULED. ALTHOUGH THE EARLY EVNG WL BE PCPN FREE
FOR THE MOST PART UNDER DRY SLOT...MORE CLDS/SCT -SHRA WL ARRIVE FM
THE W AS THE WRAP ARND MSTR ACCOMPANYING THE EWARD MOVING LO PRES
SLIDES INTO THE UPR LKS. STRONG W H925 WINDS UP TO 40-50 KTS ON THE
WRN FLANK OF THE LO WL ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -2C OR -3C OVER THE W BY 12Z...BUT FCST WBLB
ZERO HGT WELL ABV 1K FT SUGS THE PCPN WL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF RA EXCEPT OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W LATE. EXPECT STRONG W
WINDS TO IMPACT THE W LATE AS WELL...WITH WIND GUSTS APRCHG ADVY LVL
AGAIN OVER THE FAR W S OF CMX WHERE THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS
COINCIDES WITH THE INCOMING H85 THERMAL TROF. CONSIDERED EXTENDING
WIND ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW...BUT AXIS OF STRONGER WINDS POINTING
TOWARD THIS EXPOSED AREA DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THERMAL TROFFING/
REDUCED STABILITY THAT WOULD ENHANCE MIXING.
WED...AS THE CLOSED LO TO THE E MOVES FARTHER AWAY...SFC HI PRES RDG
WL BLD INTO THE AREA UNDER RISING H5 AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG IN
THE PLAINS. MRNG -SHRA...MIXED WITH SN PER LOWER WBLB ZERO HGTS AS
H85 TEMPS FALL TO ARND -5C...MAINLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OVER THE
NRN TIER WL DIMINISH WITH TIME UNDER NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/MID LVL
DRYING AND GRDLY MORE ACYC FLOW... BUT FCST SDNGS SUG PLENTY OF LO
CLD WL LINGER...SO TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS. AS THE LO MOVES AWAY AND HI PRES MOVES TOWARD THE AREA...THE
WINDS WL DIMINISH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
WED NIGHT...H925 TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH LK INSTABILITY
TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED
BY VEERING N TO NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE NRLY FAVORED LOCATIONS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IT OVERNIGHT. DID HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHTS LONGER FOR THE
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN NCNTRL UPPER MI...ALTHOUGH THE LOWERING
INVERSION WILL LIMIT CLOUD DEPTH.
THURS SHOULD BE A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER UPPER MI. NE WINDS WILL PULL DRIER AIR INTO
UPPER MI AND LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY OVER THE EAST HALF. FARTHER
WEST...MID CLOUDS WILL BE WORKING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST INTERIOR AWAY FROM
THE LK SUPERIOR INFLUENCE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING AND
HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE...LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. DEWPOINTS ARE THE
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST...AS MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH ML DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO OVER THE ERN CWA. WILL DROP TD VALUES AGAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OVER THE ERN CWA INTO THE UPPER TEENS. MAY NEED TO DROP THEM EVEN
MORE...SINCE MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS VERIFIED FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY.
THURS NIGHT...CLEAR INITIALLY AND WITH THE LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ERN
CWA...SHOULD SEE A QUICK FALL IN TEMPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE THE
TEMPS TO RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TRIED TO SHOW A QUICK DROP IN
THE EVENING...BUT UNSURE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WITH LIMITED
WINDS AND MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS...SO HAVE HELD THEM STEADY. SHOWERS
ENTERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ASSOCIATED WITH H850-700 WAA IN THE EVENING...WHICH THEN
FOCUSES FARTHER S THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH
THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY PUSH E. PTYPE IS TRICKY SINCE IT
WILL BE FALLING AS SNOW...BUT THEN AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT 0C LOOKS
TO SETUP FROM 2-6KFT BEFORE NEAR SFC TEMPS BELOW 2KFT WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS CREATES A SNOW/RAIN MIX SCENARIO AND SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE.
THUS...WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER UPPER MI...WITH BETTER SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NE HALF.
FRI...MODELS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT ON THE BULK OF THE PCPN GOING
S OF THE CWA WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENING AS IT TRIES TO PUSH
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUSING OF THE BETTER H850-700 WAA
FARTHER SE OVER LK MI AND LOWER MI. THEREFORE...HAVE A DIMINISHING
TREND OVER THE ERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LLVL
DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BAY HIGH. SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN
THE MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING WOULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING PCPN
TO RAIN.
EXTENDED /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC FOLLOWED A 00Z GFS/ECMWF ENS MEAN FOR DAYS 5-7...SINCE THERE IS
DECENT CONSISTENCY IN THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE WRN CONUS DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LKS FOR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...ALONG WITH H850-700 Q-VECTOR
CONV...SO THINK OVERALL PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS SHIFTING INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. DETERMINISTIC RUNS STILL DIFFERING IN THE
INTENSITY/AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH...WITH THE 00Z GFS MUCH DEEPER
AND THE 00Z ECMWF BROADER AND OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. 12Z GFS
HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF AND WILL FOLLOW THE
HPC SOLN AND HAVE THE BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS ON SUN
SLIDING SE THROUGH THE UPPER MISS VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LKS THROUGH
TUES. BEFORE THAT...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LKS OR SRN ONTARIO...WHICH WOULD HAVE A LARGE AFFECT ON
HIGHS. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLNS GIVE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS FOR
SUN...AS H850 TEMPS RANGE FROM 7-14C. MAY NOT MIX QUITE THAT
HIGH...BUT MIXING TO H900 WOULD STILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S. SO
HAVE BUMPED UP THE EXISTING FORECAST A FEW DEGREES.
HEADING INTO SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUES...AREA WILL BE ON THE
NRN FRINGES OF THE SFC LOW FEATURES. IF THE LOW TRENDS TOWARDS THE
00Z GFS...WILL LIKELY BE DRY...BUT IF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ARE
CORRECT WE/LL HAVE BETTER SHOT OF SEEING PCPN. DON/T SEE ANY REASON
TO GO ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES AND WILL KEEP THE PCPN AS
RAIN WITH THE ABUNDANT WARM AIR REMAINING OVER THE AREA.
AS THIS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...COULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
EXPECT STRONG WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT AT
KIWD AND KCMX WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR RANGE ALONG WITH
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO KIWD AND KCMX. IT MAY
GET COLD ENOUGH AT KIWD FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO MOVE INTO KSAW
LATE TONIGHT BUT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT
12Z WED WHEN WINDS VEER NW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE...ESPECIALLY FM THE WEST LATE WED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM NRN ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012
ALTHOUGH THE GOING S GALES OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP WILL DIMINISH
BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LO PRES IN MN/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT
ARRIVE...A STRONGER W TO NW WIND WILL REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS THE
LO MOVES TO THE E ACROSS LAKE SUP...WITH MORE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
MAINLY THE W AND NCENTRAL AT TIMES INTO WED MORNING WHEN THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR AS WELL WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED MIXING. THE APPROACH
OF A HI PRES RIDGE AND WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS BY WED AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WED NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
DIMINISHING WINDS AS THEY BACK TO THE NE. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY
BELOW 20KTS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-245-
264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ241-242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC/SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
207 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THESE FRONTS WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH FAIR SKIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
.1250 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATED DESPERATELY NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR RISING TEMPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS REGION BECOMES ENVELOPED IN A WELL-
ESTABLISHED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND
WELL SO QUITE A BIT OF MANUAL GRID MANIPULATION WAS NEEDED. IN ANY
EVENT FURTHER TO OUR WEST...ANOTHER WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VLY WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA AFTER
SUNRISE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SHWRS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACCOMPANYING ITS PASSAGE AS ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES QUICKLY APPROACH 500 J/KG ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OF TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE OCCLUDED TRIPLE POINT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TACKLE THOSE DETAILS MORE THOROUGHLY WITH NEXT
UPDATE.
.PREVIOUS NEAR TERM UPDATES...
1030 PM UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER. WE REMAIN
VERY DRY AT THE LOW LEVELS...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM MUST BE RESPECTED. IN
FACT...DESPITE 35 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION FROM AN OBS SITE ON
BRUCE PENINSULA AT THE SURFACE...ALOFT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND EVEN INSTABILITY FOR A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS
MANAGED TO DEVELOP. SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES IN OUR SOUNDINGS
12Z-15Z OF COURSE ARE VERY POSITIVE. BUT A CLOSER LOOK AT THE
LATEST SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT ABOVE THE VERY STABLE NEAR SURFACE
LAYER...THERE IS ACTUALLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. KELM NAM
SOUNDING SEEN VIA BUFKIT FOR EXAMPLE MANAGES A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
ELEVATED CAPE...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS ABOVE AN INCH. THE
RAPID UPDATE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
ALSO CATCHING ON TO THIS QUICKLY EVOLVING TREND...THAT SHOWERS AND
EVEN THUNDER ARE BECOMING MORE PROBABLE IN THE MORNING. BRIEF WARM
SECTOR THEN COMES IN BEHIND THE MORNING BATCH...ONLY FOR COLD
FRONT TO THEN PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. WELL UPSTREAM...THUNDERSTORMS IN ILLINOIS ARE
GIVING US A HINT OF THIS POTENTIAL.
AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION UP TO
NOW THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES HAVE NEEDED TWEAKING TO KEEP UP
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS AND
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LOWS TO OCCUR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPING
TEMPERATURES TURN THE CORNER TO RISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IF SHOWERS MOVE IN FAST ENOUGH...A COUPLE PLACES IN MOHAWK
VALLEY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY COULD A LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THAT QUICKLY SWITCHES OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT CONSIDERED VERY LIKELY AT THIS TIME...WITH
MORE PROBABLE OUTCOME BEING TEMPERATURES BREAKING ABOVE FREEZING
BEFORE OR JUST AS SHOWERS ARRIVE.
BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH SURGE OF WARM AIR
CAPTURING MOST OF THE AREA...YET TRIPLE POINT PASSING CLOSE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND ALSO STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR BEING PERHAPS A
BIT HARDER TO SCOUR OUT. PARTIAL SUNSHINE BETWEEN BATCHES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...YET CLOSER TO
50 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2NDRY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WORKS SOUTH ON WED NGT...AS S/WV
MOVS BY TO THE N. MDLS SHOW MOIST NW FLOW...SO CHC POPS FOR
-SHRA/-SHSN OVRNGT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT ON THU AS HIGH PRES TRIES TO
BUILD IN BUT GUSTY NW WINDS SHUD PERSIST DURING THE DAY. WENT
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON THU AS MOS MAXES WERE NOT SUPPORTED BY MDL
925 MB TEMPS...WHICH INFERRED MAXES THE L/M 40S. MAINLY SKC ON
THU NGT AS SFC RDG AXIS MOVS INTO THE AREA. ON FRI LEANED TWDS THE
12Z GFS/00Z EURO...AND ONLY MENTIONED A SLGT CHC OF -SHRA ACRS FAR
SW SXNS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY. OTRW...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MID AND HI CLD SPREADING ACRS CNTRL AND SRN SXNS ON
FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
440 PM UPDATE...LONG TERM PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT BUSY WITH QUICK
SUCCESSION OF MID SCALE UPPER RIDGES AND WAVES. YET BECAUSE THESE
UPPER FEATURES ARE NOT VERY BIG...THE FORECAST IS PRONE TO MODEL-
TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES ON TIMING FOR EACH OF
THEM. ALSO...WITH THE QUICK TIMING BETWEEN FEATURES...MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY COULD BE AND ISSUE. THUS I DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM
HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH ITSELF WAS FAIRLY NON-COMMITTAL WITH SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS. ON A LARGER SCALE THOUGH...GFS/ECMWF AT LEAST
HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON NEAR NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING TO BRIEF PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL HEADING
INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST THUS ALSO TRENDS FROM NEAR
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.
ONE OTHER NOTE...NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVING
UP FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE BACK
PART OF ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
WAVE OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE
FROM THE 00Z ECMWF...AND IS STARKLY DIFFERENT FROM THE 12Z
GFS...SO NOT PUTTING TOO MUCH STOCK INTO THAT SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z UPDATE... VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PD. THE
BEST CHC FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS WILL COME LTR TNT (STARTING IN THE
04-06Z THU TIME FRAME)...WHEN LWR CIGS/-SHRA SHOULD
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACRS THE CNY TERMINALS.
IN THE NEAR-TERM (THROUGH ABT 12Z)...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WILL BE
LLWS...AS A SHARP SFC-BASED INVERSION EXISTS...WITH MUCH STGR
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK (AOA 1500-2000 FEET AGL).
SCTD -SHRA SHOULD MOVE ACRS THE NRN TERMINALS (KSYR/KRME/KITH) IN
THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME...BUT UNRESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THEN...THIS AFTN...ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLD/SCTD -SHRA ARE EXPECTED. AGAIN...THOUGH...UNRESTRICTED
CONDS ARE GENERALLY FORESEEN...AND COVERAGE IS EVEN A BIT MORE
QUESTIONABLE...SO WE`VE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
SFC WINDS SHOULD TURN SW AND BECOME FAIRLY GUSTY IN THE LATE
MRNG/EARLY AFTN PD. BEHIND THE COLD FRNT LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS
EVE...GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED (UP TO 25-30 KT).
.OUTLOOK...
THU MRNG...CHC MVFR IN -SHRA...MIXED WITH -SHSN AT TIMES...SPCLY
KBGM/KITH.
THU AFTN TO FRI...MAINLY VFR.
FRI NGT INTO SAT...CHC OF RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-RA...PSBLY
MIXED WITH -SN ON THE HILLS AT KBGM/KITH BY EARLY SAT.
SAT AFTN AND NGT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...CHC MVFR IN -SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...CMG/MDP
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
100 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THESE FRONTS WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH FAIR SKIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
.1250 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATED DESPERATELY NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR RISING TEMPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS REGION BECOMES ENVELOPED IN A WELL-
ESTABLISHED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND
WELL SO QUITE A BIT OF MANUAL GRID MANIPULATION WAS NEEDED. IN ANY
EVENT FURTHER TO OUR WEST...ANOTHER WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VLY WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA AFTER
SUNRISE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SHWRS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACCOMPANYING ITS PASSAGE AS ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES QUICKLY APPROACH 500 J/KG ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OF TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE OCCLUDED TRIPLE POINT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL TACKLE THOSE DETAILS MORE THOROUGHLY WITH NEXT
UPDATE.
.PREVIOUS NEAR TERM UPDATES...
1030 PM UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER. WE REMAIN
VERY DRY AT THE LOW LEVELS...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM MUST BE RESPECTED. IN
FACT...DESPITE 35 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FROM AN OBS SITE ON
BRUCE PENINSULA AT THE SURFACE...ALOFT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND EVEN INSTABILITY FOR A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS
MANAGED TO DEVELOP. SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES IN OUR SOUNDINGS
12Z-15Z OF COURSE ARE VERY POSITIVE. BUT A CLOSER LOOK AT THE
LATEST SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT ABOVE THE VERY STABLE NEAR SURFACE
LAYER...THERE IS ACTUALLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. KELM NAM
SOUNDING SEEN VIA BUFKIT FOR EXAMPLE MANAGES A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
ELEVATED CAPE...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS ABOVE AN INCH. THE
RAPID UPDATE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW ARE
ALSO CATCHING ON TO THIS QUICKLY EVOLVING TREND...THAT SHOWERS AND
EVEN THUNDER ARE BECOMING MORE PROBABLE IN THE MORNING. BRIEF WARM
SECTOR THEN COMES IN BEHIND THE MORNING BATCH...ONLY FOR COLD
FRONT TO THEN PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. WELL UPSTREAM...THUNDERSTORMS IN ILLINOIS ARE
GIVING US A HINT OF THIS POTENTIAL.
AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION UP TO
NOW THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES HAVE NEEDED TWEAKING TO KEEP UP
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS AND
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LOWS TO OCCUR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPING
TEMPERATURES TURN THE CORNER TO RISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IF SHOWERS MOVE IN FAST ENOUGH...A COUPLE PLACES IN MOHAWK
VALLEY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY COULD A LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THAT QUICKLY SWITCHES OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT CONSIDERED VERY LIKELY AT THIS TIME...WITH
MORE PROBABLE OUTCOMING BEING TEMPERATURES BREAKING ABOVE FREEZING
BEFORE OR JUST AS SHOWERS ARRIVE.
BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH SURGE OF WARM AIR
CAPTURING MOST OF THE AREA...YET TRIPLE POINT PASSING CLOSE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND ALSO STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR BEING PERHAPS A
BIT HARDER TO SCOUR OUT. PARTIAL SUNSHINE BETWEEN BATCHES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN WARM SECTOR FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...YET CLOSER TO
50 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2NDRY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WORKS SOUTH ON WED NGT...AS S/WV
MOVS BY TO THE N. MDLS SHOW MOIST NW FLOW...SO CHC POPS FOR
-SHRA/-SHSN OVRNGT. SLOW IMPROVMENT ON THU AS HIGH PRES TRIES TO
BUILD IN BUT GUSTY NW WINDS SHUD PERSIST DURING THE DAY. WENT
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON THU AS MOS MAXES WERE NOT SUPPORTED BY MDL
925 MB TEMPS...WHICH INFERRED MAXES THE L/M 40S. MAINLY SKC ON
THU NGT AS SFC RDG AXIS MOVS INTO THE AREA. ON FRI LEANED TWDS THE
12Z GFS/00Z EURO...AND ONLY MENTIONED A SLGT CHC OF -SHRA ACRS FAR
SW SXNS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY. OTRW...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MID AND HI CLD SPREADING ACRS CNTRL AND SRN SXNS ON
FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
440 PM UPDATE...LONG TERM PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT BUSY WITH QUICK
SUCCESSION OF MID SCALE UPPER RIDGES AND WAVES. YET BECAUSE THESE
UPPER FEATURES ARE NOT VERY BIG...THE FORECAST IS PRONE TO MODEL-
TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES ON TIMING FOR EACH OF
THEM. ALSO...WITH THE QUICK TIMING BETWEEN FEATURES...MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY COULD BE AND ISSUE. THUS I DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM
HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH ITSELF WAS FAIRLY NON-COMMITTAL WITH SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS. ON A LARGER SCALE THOUGH...GFS/ECMWF AT LEAST
HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON NEAR NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING TO BRIEF PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL HEADING
INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST THUS ALSO TRENDS FROM NEAR
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.
ONE OTHER NOTE...NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW MOVING
UP FROM THE MIDATLANTIC TO OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE BACK
PART OF ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
WAVE OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE
FROM THE 00Z ECMWF...AND IS STARKLY DIFFERENT FROM THE 12Z
GFS...SO NOT PUTTING TOO MUCH STOCK INTO THAT SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WILL BRING A WARM FRONT NEAR THE REGION LATE WED MORNING.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING
TO 5K FT AROUND 11Z IN NY. SYSTEM LACKS MOISTURE AND IS MOVING
INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS THEREFORE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 FOR MVFR
RAIN SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR BETWEEN 14Z TO 18Z. CIGS AT KRME COULD
FALL TO MVFR WITH ANY MIDDAY SHOWERS. FOR THE AFTN AT KRME/KSYR PUT
PREDOMINANT SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. NOT EXPECTING MVFR
WITH THE SHOWERS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY EVENING AFTER
00Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E/SE OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO SHARP
INVERSION WITH STRONG SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. WINDS AT 2K FT BY
06Z WILL BE 22035KT. SFC WINDS BECOMING S/SW AFTER SUNRISE AROUND
10 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST IN THE AFTN AT 12G20KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT TO THU...CHC MVFR IN -SHRA...MIXED WITH -SHSN AT TIMES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTN TO FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SAT...CHC MVFR IN -SHRA...MOSTLY FOR KAVP.
SAT NGT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC MVFR IN -SHRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...CMG/MDP
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
356 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON THURSDAY WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND FROST POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE WARM SECTOR
ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS INDIANA. 06Z SPC RUC ANALYSIS
SHOWS BETTER MOISTURE LOCATED IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS
MORNING...WONDERING IF THE BETTER MOISTURE IS GETTING PINCHED OFF
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. WE ARE EXPECTED TO MIX TO AROUND 850MB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH
WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH A POCKET OF COLD AIR
AT 850MB (-2 TO -4C) SETTLING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MICHIGAN TOWARDS NW
PA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MOISTURE
OFF LAKE ERIE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO SEE
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NE OH/NW PA. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL HELP TO PREVENT FROST TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. OUR PROXIMITY TO THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST WITH LOWS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE MID 20S EAST TO MID 30S WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...MAINLY IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. LIFT
WILL RAMP UP AND BECOME STRONG ALONG THE 925-850MB FRONT AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO INDIANA ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION FOR A COUPLE DAYS AND HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MAY STRUGGLE
TO LIFT NORTH OF A DAYTON TO MARION LINE...ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD END UP WITH
A GOOD STEADY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS ENDING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWED GFS TIMING FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
LOOK MILD WITH TEMPS INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS 55 TO 60 SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING MONDAY A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT LOWS TO DROP THROUGH THE 40S.
HIGHS POST FRONT TUESDAY 55 TO 60 LOOK REASONABLE. AS FOR POPS WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY SUNDAY AND THEN BRING IN A CHANCE POP FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AT 05Z. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE EAST. TO
THE WEST...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING ILLINOIS WHILE A SURFACE
TROF AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM VPZ VCNTY SW TO PIA VCNTY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD REACH INTO
WESTERN/NWRN OHIO AROUND 10-12Z BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. NOT
CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDER SUSTAINING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE MORNING SO EAST OF MFD BACKED OFF TO JUST SHOWERS. EXPECT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH AND THEN CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH
WINDS FROM THE SSW GUSTING INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT 30
KNOTS AT KERI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POST FRONT WINDS WILL
TURN WEST-NORTHWEST AND GUST TO THE 30 KNOT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK THIS EVENING. LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXPECT LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS TO DROP ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY TONIGHT (WED NGT) INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW
ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING. WILL MOVE SMALL CRAFT UP TO ISSUE TIME. WINDS ON THE LAKE
AWAY FROM SHORE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN NEAR THE SHORELINE GIVEN THE
COLD WATER HOWEVER WINDS NEAR THE SHORELINE ARE CLOSE TO CRITERIA.
WOULD RATHER BE CAUTIOUS GIVEN THE DANGER OF THE COLD WATER. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING ESPECIALLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
WAVES APPROACHING 4 TO 6 FEET. WINDS/WAVES WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FOR MID WEEK.
FRIDAY THE NAM MOVES A LOW ACROSS OHIO. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE WITH EAST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS OR SO DURING THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. WILL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES WITH THIS SYSTEM. SATURDAY ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE LAKE. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS SHOULD BRING MILD AIR
TO THE REGION AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO THE
LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
.AVIATION...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS MOST TAF
SITES IN THE PERIOD 2809/2815 UTC. DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC AS
THE IFR CEILINGS IN THE NAM GUIDANCE...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. STEADY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD...WITH STRONGER SUSTAINED SPEEDS BEGINNING MIDDAY
THURSDAY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE RUC AND
GFS AND HRRR ARE SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND/OR ADVECTING THEM ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES ARE NECESSARY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 82 60 81 / 10 10 20 20
HOBART OK 59 82 59 80 / 20 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 84 60 83 / 10 20 20 30
GAGE OK 54 85 56 85 / 20 20 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 58 83 61 84 / 20 20 30 20
DURANT OK 59 81 60 77 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/22/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1137 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL OK HAVE LONG SINCE DISSIPATED AND ONLY
PASSING MID CLOUDS REMAIN. GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO CEILINGS IN THE 5-6KFT RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
KANSAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST DATA FROM THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL REMAIN
CAPPED THIS EVENING IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT
OVER KS. THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING CONFIRMS THIS...WITH A STOUT EML
FROM 600MB DOWN TO AROUND 800MB. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRED EARLIER OVER CENTRAL OK ABOVE THE CAP
AT THE TOP OF THE EML...BUT THAT ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.
ONE WOULD THINK THAT IF THERE IS ANY WARM ADV ACTIVITY TONIGHT IT
WOULD BE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER KS...THUS I HAVE REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT. SOME SMALL TWEAKS WERE MADE TO
THE LOWS TONIGHT AS WELL. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL OK INTO NE OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR
UNLIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER MUCH LONGER. THUS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS. CEILINGS
EVENTUALLY WILL LOWER BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE VFR LEVELS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN KANSAS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES AS
WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL NOT REACH NORTHEAST OK OVERNIGHT GIVEN
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER CONVECTION
OUT AHEAD OF THAT FRONT..MAY REACH..THE NORTHERN TIER
OF NORTHEAST OK COUNTIES. CHANCE POPS CARRIED ABOUT
I-44 NORTH TO KANSAS BORDER. BEST CHANCE NEAR KANSAS.
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES REMAIN WITH LOW POPS WEDNESDAY
WHERE INSTABILITY GREATEST AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORTS HEALTHY THUNDER IF THUNDER DEVELOPS.
CHANCE POPS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP
CHANCES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. KEPT POPS JUST BELOW
LIKELY THRESHOLD FRIDAY. FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND LOOKS
IFFY DEPENDING ON WAVE SPEED. ECMWF ABOUT STATE AHEAD
OF LINGERING GFS. AS USUAL LEANED EUROPEAN. CONTINUED
TO LEAN ECMWF THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1201 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
.AVIATION...
MCS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DIE
OUT BEFORE REACHING KSAT/KSSF. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD
TIME WITH THE MCS THIS EVENING...AND MAY NEED TO SEND AN UPDATE BY
ABOUT 08Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
CURRENTLY HAVE MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE AS FAR AS TIMING DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT A MIX OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY RETURNING TO VFR BY ABOUT 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
UPDATE...
MCS ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF STORMS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THE LAST HOUR.
00Z RUC AND NAM SHOW CONVECTION WEAKENING THRU 06Z...ALTHOUGH WILL
KEEP LOW POPS IN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS OVER THE WESTERN 3RD
OF THE CWA A FEW HOURS LONGER...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. OTHERWISE
ONGOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE
NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION IS MAKING SLOW S/SW-WRD
PROGRESS THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SW-WRD THIS EVENING...BUT SHEAR APART/DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING KDRT. HAVE THEREFORE OPTED TO MENTION CB AROUND KDRT
LATER TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT
MENTION OF TSRA AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...SHRA/TSRA EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS IS
RAPIDLY TRENDING DOWNWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS
AOB 2KFT TO SETTLE IN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 06Z. CIGS
WILL LOWER AND SPREAD WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF IN THE NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AROUND/AFTER 18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/
DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SITS UNDER THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM 700-250MB THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A
SLOW SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
NORTHERN MEXICO IS ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT EXPECT STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT QUESTION IS WHETHER
THEY CAN MAKE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO TX. ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY
CAPPED OVER OUR CWA...SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ANY STORMS THAT DO MAKE IT ACROSS MAY
BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WED LOOKS VERY SIMILAR
TO TODAY WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS MAKING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TX. THU THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL APPROACH TX AND THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MORE OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY FRI EVENING LEAVING DRY WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON ITS STRENGTH. GFS IS STRONGER. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE WEAKER ECMWF AND INCREASED TEMPS FOR MON AND TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 81 63 79 61 / 10 10 10 20 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 81 61 79 60 / 10 10 10 20 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 80 62 77 60 / 10 10 10 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 80 61 77 61 / 10 10 10 20 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 83 67 78 64 / 40 10 30 40 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 62 78 61 77 60 / 10 10 10 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 64 77 62 / 20 10 20 40 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 80 62 78 60 / 10 10 10 20 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 80 61 78 61 / 10 - 10 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 81 64 77 63 / 10 10 10 30 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 82 65 77 63 / 10 10 10 30 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
356 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...
356 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES CENTERED ON THU NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS LOW STILL
EXTENDED ACROSS MN/WI/MUCH OF IA AND CONTINUED TO RELAX EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS ACROSS MOST OF MN/WI REMAINED IN THE 10-20KT
RANGE. CLOUDS IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW COVERED CENTRAL/
NORTHERN MN AND WI NORTH OF HWY 29...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION COOLING
IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BUT REMAINED WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
28.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS QUITE SIMILAR FOR TODAY
THRU THU THEN DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
SFC LOW/TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY THU NIGHT.
DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 28.00Z SHOWED THE RUNS OF 26.00Z AND
27.00Z VERIFIED WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC WITH BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY BY ECMWF. MODELS CONVERGING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS
THRU THU AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z FRI. FROM THERE MODELS DIVERGE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST THRU THE REGION
THU NIGHT/FRI. SOMEWHAT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BY ECMWF THU
NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...BUT COULD BE BETTER. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL
DATA AT 06Z SHOWED MODELS ON TRACK WITH THE SFC FEATURES OVER
CENTRAL NOAM. PER WV IMAGERY...ECMWF/GEM LOOKED BETTER THAN
NAM/GFS/MET WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST. ECMWF/GEM ARE A COUPLE OF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WITH THIS
ENERGY AS IT CROSSES THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY THU NIGHT/FRI. WITH
ECMWF/GEM LOOKING BETTER AT 06Z...FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
WEIGHTED TOWARD THEM ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
MODEL SPREAD FCST CONFIDENCE FALLS TO AVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE LOW NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR MOVES QUICKLY AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER MDT 925 PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS
REMAIN OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO AROUND 900MB...WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK/BREEZY TODAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS RATHER QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND IS OVER EASTERN WI BY 12Z THU. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING BUT APPEARS WINDS MAY STIR/INCREASE A BIT
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
COLDEST OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS...WITH LOWS TONIGHT
FALLING INTO THE 30S...COLDEST ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. CONTINUED
MENTION OF FROST OVER MAINLY THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
WILL LEAVE ANY POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT TO DAY CREW WHO CAN
MONITOR TEMPS/DEWPOINT/WIND TRENDS THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THU WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN IT AND THE NEXT LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SPREADS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THU WITH THE INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING THE
WEST END OF THE FCST AREA EITHER LATE THU AFTERNOON OR THU EVENING.
DEEPER/STRONGER OF THE FORCING FROM 925-850MB WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU PV ADVECTION/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. ADDED A SMALL
-SHRA CHANCE TO THE WEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE THU AFTERNOON TO
BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. RAISED RAIN CHANCES BY LATE THU NIGHT
TOWARD 80 PERCENT WITH EVEN THE LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS ALL PRODUCING
SOME PRECIP OVER THE AREA. LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM FOR
FRI...CONTINUED 20-50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST EAST...OVER THE
FCST AREA FRI MORNING. CAPE LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/LIFT AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR NEUTRAL STABILITY ABOVE 850MB CONTINUED
MENTION OF ISOLATED OR SCT TSRA IN THE LATE THU AFTERNOON THRU FRI
MORNING PERIODS. WEAK SFC-500MB RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
LATER FRI/FRI NIGHT. LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM...ANY
RETURNING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION WOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT AND REMOVED THE SMALL -SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY...AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTH
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...FAVORED WARMER OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS. WITH
THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...FAVORED COOLER OF GUIDANCE
LOWS TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HIGHS SIMILAR AND LOOK REASONABLE FOR THU.
WITH THICKER CLOUDS/-SHRA...FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS THU
NIGHT. WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/
LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
356 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
SOME IMPROVEMENT OF CONSISTENCY AMONG 28.00Z MODEL RUNS FOR SAT INTO
SUN...BUT BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO
LEAVE A LOT TO BE DESIRED BY SUN NIGHT AND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE SAT INTO SUN WITH IMPROVING MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WEEKEND TRENDING TO BE DRY OR ONLY VERY SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND
A WARMING PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING/RISING HGTS AND PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER THE REGION. WITH THE VERY LOW CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MODELS BY MON/TUE...FCST CONFIDENCE THESE PERIODS QUITE
LOW AS WELL. SOME SIGNAL AMONG ALL MODELS FOR TROUGHING TO MOVE
INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME BUT DETAIL
DIFFERENCE QUITE LARGE. ONE OF THE MOST EXTREME SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS THE UKMET...WITH A LARGE NEGATIVE TILT CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGH AND A 984MB SFC LOW NEAR KDBQ MON EVENING. IMPLICATIONS FOR
THIS WOULD NOT GO WELL WITH OUR WARM/EARLY START TO SPRING. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AND ALL THE MODEL SPREAD STAYED NEAR THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS FOR DAYS 6/7. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT SUNDAY WITH STRONG
RIDGING/WARMING AHEAD OF ANY TROUGHING/SFC LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1150 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
SOME WEAK PRESSURE RISES HAVE KEPT SOME GUSTINESS AT THE TAF SITES
THIS PAST EVENING. THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 29.02Z RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BROKEN CEILING AROUND
030K FEET AFTER 08Z. HOWEVER...28.00Z NAM LESS ROBUST WITH THIS
MOISTURE AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES...JUST WENT WITH A SCATTERED DECK OF CLOUDS AFTER
08Z. AFTER 14Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 20 TO 23 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS AFTER 01Z.650 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
356 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
.SHORT TERM...
650 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
WILL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
250 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS FAVORS A CLOSED LOW AND LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE
THE EC IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. THUS...THE
GFS WOULD HANG ONTO A RIDGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE
THE EC WOULD BRING IN PCPN CHANCES MON-TUE. A LOT OF INCONSISTENCIES
WITHIN THE MODELS TOO...ESPECIALLY THE EC. WILL LEAN ON THE A
GFS/CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS. THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP
DRY THOUGH...AND WITH A RIDGE MORE LIKELY...HIGHS COULD POP BACK UP
INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
1150 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
SOME WEAK PRESSURE RISES HAVE KEPT SOME GUSTINESS AT THE TAF SITES
THIS PAST EVENING. THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 29.02Z RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BROKEN CEILING AROUND
030K FEET AFTER 08Z. HOWEVER...28.00Z NAM LESS ROBUST WITH THIS
MOISTURE AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES...JUST WENT WITH A SCATTERED DECK OF CLOUDS AFTER
08Z. AFTER 14Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 20 TO 23 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS AFTER 01Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
650 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION...RABERDING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1107 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TODAY AND MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY DEW POINTS
WHICH HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN FORECAST. ALSO FINE TUNED
THE POPS AND WX TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS
WILL HAVE EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH IT SO WILL INCLUDE CHANCE OF
THUNDER EVERYWHERE IN THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS
PASSED WELL TO THE SOUTH. RIDGING ALOFT...WITH RIDGE AXIS TO THE
EAST...OCCURRING AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH TRAVERSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT SREF/GEFS DATA...PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST MEASURABLE QPF
HIGHER THAN MET MOS SUGGESTS. PW VALUES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THETA E RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA
AND LAYER PW PERCENTAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
DEPENDING ON ANY SUNSHINE...MOS NUMBERS APPEAR REASONABLE WITH
60S WEST...AND 50S EAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOL WATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR USHERED IN IN DEEP NW FLOW. SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
WEAK UPPER SUPPORT/ASSOC LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND DRY
AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE COLDER (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL)...AND MOS NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCE AS NAM AND GFS HAVE AN UPPER LEVELS TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST FROM THE MID-WEST...WITH
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH BY 12Z ON SATURDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GEM IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER...PUSHING
THE LOW OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY 00Z. THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
GEM/NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR HOWEVER. THE GEM KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER...NOT PUSHING THE
LOW OFFSHORE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE AREA NOT DRYING OUT
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE...LEANED WITH THE NAM/GFS
SOLUTION
GFS HAS A WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS OCCURRING UNTIL MONDAY. THEY THEN COME
INTO AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GEM
IS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT HAS A SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHERN CANADA DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD...MOVING OVER OUR AREA...AND
OFFSHORE BYE MONDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO DEPART AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 5K
FT...THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON.
TIMING FOR FIRST ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH -SHRA IN TEMPO
GROUPS IS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WHICH AGREES FAIRLY WELL
WITH HRRR GUIDANCE. EXCEPT AT KSWF...WHICH SHOULD HAVE A -TSRA
PASS JUST TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...HAVE REFRAINED FROM
INCLUDING TS/CB IN TAFS AS CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION IS LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. A SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH BEST TIMING OF -SHRA REFLECTED IN TEMPO GROUP IN
TAFS.
SSW WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT TO GET STARTED BECOME
MORE SW AND GUSTS INCREASE TO 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL SYSTEM DEPARTS THIS EVENING...AND WINDS SHIFT TO A
W...THEN NW FLOW...AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. WINDS THEN
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION...AND TIMING OF -SHRA AND ANY TS THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION...AND TIMING OF -SHRA AND ANY TS THIS AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION...AND TIMING OF -SHRA AND ANY TS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION...AND TIMING OF -SHRA AND ANY TS THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION...AND TIMING OF -SHRA AND ANY TS THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION...AND TIMING OF -SHRA AND ANY TS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW FLOW...DIMINISHING LATE.
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED...AND OCEAN SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SCA LEVELS. OTHER WATERS SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF SCA
CRITERIA WINDS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. SEAS/WAVES WILL
BECOME CHOPPY AS A RESULT.
BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTHEAST...ALLOWING WINDS
TO TEMPORARILY LIGHTEN. HOWEVER...SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND
WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. SCA WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY. EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS THURSDAY.
WAVES BEGIN TO BUILD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...COMING UP ABOVE 5 FT ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KT...BUT WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WAVES INCREASE ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT ON A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DEPENDING ON FINE FUEL MOISTURE AFTER POSSIBLE WETTING RAINS
TODAY...THURSDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DAY OF CONCERN IN THE NYC METRO
AREA...WITH RH LOWERING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25
MPH AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED MID WEEK. ABOUT HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MALOIT/MPS
MARINE...JP/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JP/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1048 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER AROUND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. THE RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND THAT...QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED IN ITS MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AREA AND CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH. REMOVED POPS FROM AREAS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT EVEN THOUGH RPECIP HAS FOR THE MOST PART LEFT THE AREA
RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUCH AS HRRR AND VSREFS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL CLEAR
SKIES OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS...MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE ACCOUNTING FOR CLEARING VERY
WELL...THUS SEEM A TAD LOW ON TODAY/S HIGHS. AS A RESULT...TRENDED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE TO SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS AND EURO ARE A TAD MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE NAM IN REGARD TO PRECIP ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS POPS AS EARLY AS FRI 06Z. THE BEST LIFT
WILL OCCUR IN THE FRI 12-18Z TIME FRAME AS SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...INTRODUCED DEFINITE POPS INTO
GRIDS DURING THAT PERIOD...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON POSITION OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
TEMPS...STUCK WITH A BLEND UNTIL FRIDAY. THAT/S WHEN MODELS
STARTED HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE. TRENDED ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND
LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH SOME REMAINING LOW CHANCES FOR POPS AS FRONT
IS PROGGED TO BE DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
EARNEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDES QUIET DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR THUNDER BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
MINOR CHANGES MAKED TO KIND TAF PER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS OF 7 AM THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST ABOUT READY TO
DROP SOUTH OF ALL THE FORECAST TERMINALS. WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD WITHOUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY KEEPING
SOME IN FOR KBMG FOR THE FIRST HALF HOUR TO HR) JUST SOME SCATTERED
CU IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR BY MIDDAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. PRESENCE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY AND MIXING LEVELS UP TO AROUND 5KFT WILL PROMOTE
W/NW WIND GUSTS AT 25-30KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
VEER TO NORTHERLY AND LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD/CP
NEAR TERM...TDUD/CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1044 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTION HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER AROUND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. THE RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND THAT...QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED IN ITS MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AREA AND CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH. REMOVED POPS FROM AREAS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT EVEN THOUGH RPECIP HAS FOR THE MOST PART LEFT THE AREA
RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUCH AS HRRR AND VSREFS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL CLEAR
SKIES OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS...MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE ACCOUNTING FOR CLEARING VERY
WELL...THUS SEEM A TAD LOW ON TODAY/S HIGHS. AS A RESULT...TRENDED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE TO SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS AND EURO ARE A TAD MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE NAM IN REGARD TO PRECIP ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS POPS AS EARLY AS FRI 06Z. THE BEST LIFT
WILL OCCUR IN THE FRI 12-18Z TIME FRAME AS SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...INTRODUCED DEFINITE POPS INTO
GRIDS DURING THAT PERIOD...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON POSITION OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
TEMPS...STUCK WITH A BLEND UNTIL FRIDAY. THAT/S WHEN MODELS
STARTED HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE. TRENDED ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND
LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH SOME REMAINING LOW CHANCES FOR POPS AS FRONT
IS PROGGED TO BE DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
EARNEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDES QUIET DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR THUNDER BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS OF 7 AM THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST ABOUT READY TO
DROP SOUTH OF ALL THE FORECAST TERMINALS. WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD WITHOUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY KEEPING
SOME IN FOR KBMG FOR THE FIRST HALF HOUR TO HR) JUST SOME SCATTERED
CU IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR BY MIDDAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. PRESENCE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY AND MIXING LEVELS UP TO AROUND 5KFT WILL PROMOTE
W/NW WIND GUSTS AT 25-30KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
VEER TO NORTHERLY AND LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD/CP
NEAR TERM...TDUD/CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1050 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY...BUT LOOK FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION GENERALLY DRIVEN BY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPAWNING THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE CROSSED THE
PITTSBURGH METRO AREA THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BISECT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THEIR SOUTHWARD PROGRESS LIKELY
BECOMING INCREASINGLY RETARDED AS THE AFTERNOON ENSUES DUE TO MID-
LEVEL FORCING STARTING TO SHEAR OFF TO THE EAST. SHEAR IN THE 0-6
KM LAYER WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY IN THE 50 KT RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON...THIS MAY LEAD TO
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS YET AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIES
PREVIOUS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW HAS DEVELOPED A SHALLOW INVERSION AND WILL
INITIALLY CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT FUEL/INSTABILITY
IS INDICATED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE SURFACE
BASED AS THE FRONT AND THE DAY PROGRESS. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MORE RAPID PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THAN
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED...SO ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING FEATURE FADING
PRECIP PROBABILITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO OF INTEREST FOR
THE AFTERNOON IS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WIND FIELD IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE STEEPENING LOW LAPSE RATE AS DISPLAYED VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WIND GUSTS HAVE THUS BEEN INCREASED...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
COLDER AIR IS PROJECTED TO ADVECT OFF THE LAKES TONIGHT...AND LOW
INVERSION LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH THE WAY OF SHOWERS. SMALL
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WERE TWEAKED TO FAVOR AREAS IN LEE OF THE
LAKES AND THE RIDGES. PROJECTED TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALSO IS
INDICATIVE OF SOME FROZEN PRECIP OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...SNOW
SHOWER MENTION WAS THUS ADDED.
NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING TWEAKED SREF MEANS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SNUFF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY...AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IS NAM/GFS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS WILL BE PLENTY DRY FOR A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
RESUMES IN ADVANCE OF MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE. ANOTHER FREEZE IS
THUS FORECAST...BUT DURATION/MAGNITUDE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INCREASES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APPROACH AND SATURDAY
EXIT...HENCE CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WORK
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHED NUMBERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND WERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF SREF AND GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS GFS/ECMWF DEPICTED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AND AS SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL THUS BE SHORTWAVE DEPENDENT...FORECAST
WILL GENERALLY BE OF PERSISTENCE AND ALTERATIONS MINIMAL THIS
MORNING. WITH THE JET PROJECTED TO MEANDER OVER...OR NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES USING TWEAKED HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH 14Z WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW A VERY STRONG AND SHALLOW SURFACE
INVERSION THIS MORNING, WITH BASE 1 KFT AGL, HAVING SURFACE WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS. RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AND NAM MODEL
PROFILES SHOW WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST 35-50 KTS IN THE
LAYER 1-2 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SHOW VERTICAL MIXING,
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 14Z-18Z, DEEPENING THE SURFACE
LAYER WHICH WILL THEN TAP THE FAST WINDS ALOFT AND CAUSE SOUTHWEST
TO WEST SURFACE WINDS TO GUST TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH 22Z.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z, DESPITE PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
14Z-18Z, AS HAVE TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION. TIMING OF SHOWERS
HAS BEEN BASED ON RECENT WRF-NMM AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
COLD POOL STRATOCUMULUS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAY
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS THEN POSSIBLE DUE
TO SHOWERS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, AND LINGERING COLD POOL CLOUDS SUNDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
826 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY...BUT LOOK FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN
YIELDING REPORTS OF NEARLY QUARTER SIZED HAIL. INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO BE VERY LEAN...HOWEVER 50-60 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR ARE MANAGING TO YIELD DECENT ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MANAGE TO
SUSTAIN BRIEFLY STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING. FRIES
PREVIOUS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW HAS DEVELOPED A SHALLOW INVERSION AND WILL
INITIALLY CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT FUEL/INSTABILITY
IS INDICATED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE SURFACE
BASED AS THE FRONT AND THE DAY PROGRESS. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MORE RAPID PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THAN
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED...SO ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING FEATURE FADING
PRECIP PROBABILITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO OF INTEREST FOR
THE AFTERNOON IS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WIND FIELD IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE STEEPENING LOW LAPSE RATE AS DISPLAYED VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WIND GUSTS HAVE THUS BEEN INCREASED...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
COLDER AIR IS PROJECTED TO ADVECT OFF THE LAKES TONIGHT...AND LOW
INVERSION LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH THE WAY OF SHOWERS. SMALL
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WERE TWEAKED TO FAVOR AREAS IN LEE OF THE
LAKES AND THE RIDGES. PROJECTED TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALSO IS
INDICATIVE OF SOME FROZEN PRECIP OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...SNOW
SHOWER MENTION WAS THUS ADDED.
NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING TWEAKED SREF MEANS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SNUFF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY...AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IS NAM/GFS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS WILL BE PLENTY DRY FOR A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
RESUMES IN ADVANCE OF MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE. ANOTHER FREEZE IS
THUS FORECAST...BUT DURATION/MAGNITUDE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INCREASES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APPROACH AND SATURDAY
EXIT...HENCE CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WORK
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHED NUMBERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND WERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF SREF AND GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS GFS/ECMWF DEPICTED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AND AS SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL THUS BE SHORTWAVE DEPENDENT...FORECAST
WILL GENERALLY BE OF PERSISTENCE AND ALTERATIONS MINIMAL THIS
MORNING. WITH THE JET PROJECTED TO MEANDER OVER...OR NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES USING TWEAKED HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH 14Z WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW A VERY STRONG AND SHALLOW SURFACE
INVERSION THIS MORNING, WITH BASE 1 KFT AGL, HAVING SURFACE WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS. RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AND NAM MODEL
PROFILES SHOW WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST 35-50 KTS IN THE
LAYER 1-2 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SHOW VERTICAL MIXING,
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 14Z-18Z, DEEPENING THE SURFACE
LAYER WHICH WILL THEN TAP THE FAST WINDS ALOFT AND CAUSE SOUTHWEST
TO WEST SURFACE WINDS TO GUST TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH 22Z.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z, DESPITE PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
14Z-18Z, AS HAVE TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION. TIMING OF SHOWERS
HAS BEEN BASED ON RECENT WRF-NMM AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
COLD POOL STRATOCUMULUS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAY
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS THEN POSSIBLE DUE
TO SHOWERS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, AND LINGERING COLD POOL CLOUDS SUNDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY...BUT LOOK FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA A FEW COUNTIES
NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE GARRETT COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
ZONES EXCLUDING THE PANHANDLE. SHOULD THUNDERSTORM SUPPORT SURVIVE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FORECAST...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPENING MIXING LAYER. THIS MENTION WAS INCLUDED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
PREVIOUS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW HAS DEVELOPED A SHALLOW INVERSION AND WILL
INITIALLY CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT FUEL/INSTABILITY
IS INDICATED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE SURFACE
BASED AS THE FRONT AND THE DAY PROGRESS. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MORE RAPID PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THAN
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED...SO ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING FEATURE FADING
PRECIP PROBABILITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO OF INTEREST FOR
THE AFTERNOON IS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WIND FIELD IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE STEEPENING LOW LAPSE RATE AS DISPLAYED VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WIND GUSTS HAVE THUS BEEN INCREASED...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
COLDER AIR IS PROJECTED TO ADVECT OFF THE LAKES TONIGHT...AND LOW
INVERSION LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH THE WAY OF SHOWERS. SMALL
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WERE TWEAKED TO FAVOR AREAS IN LEE OF THE
LAKES AND THE RIDGES. PROJECTED TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALSO IS
INDICATIVE OF SOME FROZEN PRECIP OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...SNOW
SHOWER MENTION WAS THUS ADDED.
NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING TWEAKED SREF MEANS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SNUFF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY...AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IS NAM/GFS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS WILL BE PLENTY DRY FOR A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
RESUMES IN ADVANCE OF MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE. ANOTHER FREEZE IS
THUS FORECAST...BUT DURATION/MAGNITUDE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INCREASES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APPROACH AND SATURDAY
EXIT...HENCE CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WORK
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHED NUMBERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
AND WERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF SREF AND GFS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS GFS/ECMWF DEPICTED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AND AS SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL THUS BE SHORTWAVE DEPENDENT...FORECAST
WILL GENERALLY BE OF PERSISTENCE AND ALTERATIONS MINIMAL THIS
MORNING. WITH THE JET PROJECTED TO MEANDER OVER...OR NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES USING TWEAKED HPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH 14Z WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW A VERY STRONG AND SHALLOW SURFACE
INVERSION THIS MORNING, WITH BASE 1 KFT AGL, HAVING SURFACE WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS. RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AND NAM MODEL
PROFILES SHOW WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST 35-50 KTS IN THE
LAYER 1-2 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SHOW VERTICAL MIXING,
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 14Z-18Z, DEEPENING THE SURFACE
LAYER WHICH WILL THEN TAP THE FAST WINDS ALOFT AND CAUSE SOUTHWEST
TO WEST SURFACE WINDS TO GUST TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH 22Z.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z, DESPITE PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
14Z-18Z, AS HAVE TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION. TIMING OF SHOWERS
HAS BEEN BASED ON RECENT WRF-NMM AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
COLD POOL STRATOCUMULUS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAY
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS THEN POSSIBLE DUE
TO SHOWERS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, AND LINGERING COLD POOL CLOUDS SUNDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
929 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS STALLING AND CURRENTLY STRETCHES
FROM KDMO-KUUV-KBLV-KSLO. THIS WAS A TAD FURTHER NORTH THAN
GRIDDED DATABASE REFLECTED SO HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS LOCATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND AND
DEEP MIXING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT BELIEVE BEST
CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST WHERE HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FROM ST. JOSEPH TO KANSAS CITY BY 00Z.
CVKING
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
(TODAY-TONIGHT)
FOCUS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS TODAY AND POPS TONIGHT.
CDFNT CONTINUES TO MOVE S...JUST ENTERING THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS OF 08Z. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A COUPLE OF
HRS AFTER SUNRISE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SURPRISE TSRA. IF ANYTHING DOES
FORM...COVERAGE SHUD BE ISOD. EVEN WITH THE CDFNT PUSHING THRU MUCH
OF THE CWA...EXPECT DEEP MIXING TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FNT WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH
NEARLY 800MB...HAVE TRENDED ABOVE MOS FOR TODAY.
THE FNT SHUD STALL ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...THO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR S IT WILL REACH BEFORE STALLING. WITH
INCREASED SFC CONVERGENCE AND SOME FORCING THRU THE LOWER
LEVELS...EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FNT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THESE BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SHUD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING AS
FORCING BEGINS TO REFOCUS FURTHER W ACROSS KS. THIS SHUD BE THE
GENESIS REGION FOR AN MCS.
EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF KS JUST
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC WAVE. MDLS DIFFER WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR WHICH
WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS ON THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. BELIEVE MCS
ACTIVITY WILL TRACK SE ALONG THE FNT AND SHUD REMAIN W OF THE CWA.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS COMPLEX...EXPECT H85 FLOW TO BECOME MORE WLY AND
INTERSECT THE H85 FNT ALLOWING A SECOND ROUND OF TSRA TO FORM. THESE
TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CNTL MO AROUND/JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THURS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THESE TSRA WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS MDLS
DEPICT SOMEWHAT MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
TILLY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
(THURSDAY-TUESDAY)
BEGINNING OF PERIOD WILL DEPEND UPON WHAT OCCURS OVERNIGHT AS
DISCUSSED ABOVE. MDLS STILL DIFFER REGARDING WHERE PRECIP WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BELIEVE PRECIP
SHUD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING AND REFOCUS FURTHER W AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW ASSOC WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF. MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE HOW FAR E THE ELEVATED TSRA GET DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. KEPT POPS FOR THURS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SFC FNT DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE SHUD HELP INITIATE TSRA.
INCREASED POPS FOR THURS NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES THRU THE
REGION...BUT KEPT LINGERING POPS INTO FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MDLS. THIS SYSTEM SHUD BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS
FOR FRI AND SAT...THO STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVG.
FOR THE EXTD...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TEMPS AS NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES.
WITH RETURN FLOW STARTING ALREADY BY SAT MORNING...TEMPS SHUD
REBOUND QUICKLY. STARTED A WARMER TREND SAT AND SUN...THO DID NOT GO
AS WARM AS THE MEX MOS WUD SUGGEST WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPS FOR CNTL
MO ON SAT AND THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUN.
MDLS HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF FROPA ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH THE GFS
AS A FAST OUTLIER. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED TWD THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM.
KEPT LOW POPS FOR FROPA. THE GEM/GFS DO SUGGEST SOME PRECIP WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THO TIMING DIFFERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS ON ON TUES ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVG.
TILLY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
COLD FRONT APPROACHING COU-DEC LINE ATTM...WITH RADAR IMAGERY ONLY
INDICATING SPORATIC FEEBLE ATTEMPTS AT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN
MODEST POCKET OF RESDIUAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH
FRONT PUSHING S OF THE STL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ANY
REDEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS NEAR THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING OR
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE S OF ALL TAF LOCATIONS. AMS N OF THE FRONT
IS QUITE DRY...SO EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER E KS AND W MO TONIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH STALLED BOUNDARY. GETTING THE IMPRESSION
THERE COULD BE TWO WAVES OF STORMS...THE FIRST THAT FORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING THAT WILL TRACK NEAR THE
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS S MO...AND THEN A MORE ELEVATED BATCH OF
STORMS THAT WOULD IMPACT COU DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE WIND SHIFT
OCCURS...EXPECT A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE WIND TO A NE DIRECTION BY
EARLY EVENING WITH SPEEDS AOB 8KTS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SCATTERED MID
CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
TODAY. ELEVATED STORMS MENTIONED IN GENERAL DISCUSSION SHOULD
REMAIN WELL WEST OF STL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
TRUETT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1042 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGES TODAY ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. 15 UTC SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS LOW STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN TO WEST-
CENTRAL MN. CLOUDS ARE MORE OR LESS STATIONARY AND FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. RUC 925 HPA RH APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND HINTS THAT CLOUDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN...BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 40S SUGGEST SOME AFTERNOON THERMAL CUMULUS. OVERALL...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME SUN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
WITH BKN-OVC SKY COVER AND NEAR NEUTRAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AFTERNOON HIGHS. DROPPED HIGHS 2 TO 3 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...
BUT THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS STEADY. DID
INCREASE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS
SOME SUN THIS MORNING. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR
50 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF SOME AREAS ONLY REACH THE LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES
GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST
WIND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEREAFTER FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A PARADE OF SHORT
WAVES UPSTREAM. ONE SHORT WAS OVER THE AREA. WILL ADD LOW POPS OVER
NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING.
INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED FAIRLY DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO
775 HPA. EXPECT CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLEARING MOST LIKELY
OVER SOUTH AND WEST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 84 HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADD LOW POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT
WAVE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. POPS WERE
TWEAKED FOR THU AND THU NIGHT. NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR FRI IN THE
NORTH.
LONG TERM...[SATURDAY-TUESDAY]
ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO LOOK MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM ALL
HAVE 850MB TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS C. THE DIFFERENCES START WITH
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING IN SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOME
COLDER TEMPS COMING DOWN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES TIMING OF ANYTHING IS VERY
MUCH UP IN THE AIR. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO WESTERN
ND BY TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ENSEMBLE SPREAD BECOMES VERY HIGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAYS
SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW.
THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BLENDED FORECAST...WITH SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO AGREE A BIT BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
ROGERS/HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1017 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED THIS
MORNING. 28.12Z KILN RAOB INDICATED IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM ABOUT 900MB...AND NO
DOUBT SOME OF THIS BEING REALIZED WITH SHOWERS/SCT STORMS SEEN ON
KILN WSR-88D THIS MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT THUS FAR DRIVEN BY
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION...AS SFC COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL BACK
IN NWRN OH INTO SWRN IND.
FRONT SHOULD PASS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ILN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 6 PM...AND THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FROM THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /NSSL-WRF...NCEP ARW WRF...AND HRRR/
THAT CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ALONG/JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PEAKING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN/SERN FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 2PM AND 5 PM. BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM IN THE
LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NERN KY...WHERE BEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WILL HAVE BUILT. 28.12Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AT PMH VALID 20Z INDICATE DEEP WLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...AND
STRONG...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY BUT NOT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS DEFINITELY LACKING. WIND/HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS IN THE FAR SOUTH.
BACK TO THE N/W BEHIND THE FRONT IN WCNTL/CNTL OH...AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND CRASHING DEWPOINTS/COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING WINDS UP IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GET SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS IN
THE WIND PRONE AREAS. LAPSE RATES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE STEEP WITH
A STRONG FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
CHANGES THIS MORNING TO FORECAST TO BUMP WINDS UP JUST A BIT IN
THE NORTH...AND BUMP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTH UP A BIT. OTHERWISE
FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THE COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A 10-15 DEGREE DROP FROM WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION NOT REALLY KICKING BACK IN UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO TWO NIGHTS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THINGS. TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT APPEAR
THAT THEY MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME FROST...ALTHOUGH A
LACK OF MOISTURE MAY PRECLUDE THIS FROM OCCURRING. CONDITIONS FOR
A FREEZE IN CENTRAL OHIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE THAN THEY DID PREVIOUSLY (WITH A BUMP FORWARD IN TIMING
ON THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM)...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY STILL ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE TO KEEP AN HWO MENTION.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. OF CONCERN IS THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
STEADY IN ITS SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON
A FASTER PROGRESSION AND STRONGER SURFACE LOW. THUS...CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS BELOW AVERAGE.
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS CERTAIN TO OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...AND THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SPED UP
IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON FRONTS...TEMPERATURES...AND ANY POTENTIAL
SEVERE THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
THE COOLEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MID 60S FORECAST
DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS BEHIND THE LOW. THE WARMEST
READINGS INTO THE MID 70S ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WHEN ADVECTION
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 16Z AND
20Z. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY EMPLOYED A
VCSH OR A VCTS AT THE TAF SITES BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ONLY SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. OF BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS.
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
139 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOL AND DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
HRRR MODEL IS DOING A GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH
HAVE MOVED TO THE S COAST AS EXPECTED ASSOCD WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET. STILL SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS COASTAL CT AND THE RI
COASTAL WATERS BUT GREATER INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE CONFINED FURTHER S OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. HRRR MOVES THESE
SHOWERS S OF THE COAST 18-20Z AND CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF TSTM ALONG
THE COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SW ZONES. HRRR IS SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W ZONES LATE TODAY ASSOCD WITH SOME
LEFTOVER ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY TODAY AS WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE S OR POSSIBLY GET CLOSE TO HFD-
WST LINE. TEMPS ACROSS N ZONES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S...BUT
RISING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
THE S COAST ASSOCD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBIT EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE INDICES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE PROBLEM IS THE SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION WITH A BASE
AROUND 900 MB OR LOWER. NAM IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE ADVERTISING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS INVERSION...BUT IT IS SHORT-LIVED
AND SHALLOW. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW FOR THIS
EVENING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THOUGH.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA STARTS
TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...BUT IT IS STILL FAR AWAY
MOST OF THURSDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A RESULT.
A BLEND OF MAV/MET TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY FOR THURS NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT
* A WEATHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO STAY S OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND
OVERVIEW...
FCST GUIDANCE CONSISTENCY FOR THE WEEKEND SYS HAS GENERALLY TRENDED
WITH A SOUTH COAST STORM...YET THE SPECIFICS IN BOTH TIMING AND
EVOLUTION ARE QUITE VARIED. SUBSEQUENTLY...LOW CONFIDENCE PREVAILS
FOR THE WEEKEND ONWARD. MASS FIELDS OF THE 28/0Z PACKAGE OF THE
GFS/NAM ARE BROUGHT INTO QUESTION...SUCH A WEAK TROF AXIS WITH
ATTENDANT SHRTWV ENERGY AND LESSER JET DYNAMICS PER GFS YIELDS A
ROBUST AND STRONG SYS? HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE 28/0Z
CANADIAN/ECMWF PACKAGE WHICH EXHIBITS MASS FIELDS ONE WOULD EXPECT
WITH THE FCST MODEST S COAST STORM. NOT ABSOLUTELY SURE ON THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE SYS. AO IS FCST TO BE POSITIVE WITH THE NAO
NEAR NEUTRAL...SO ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE N
ATLANTIC. THERE IS A STRONG LOW ROTATING OVER ERN CANADA THAT COULD
BE PROBLEMATIC. A LOT OF QUESTIONS ARE STILL ON THE TABLE...AND THE
ASSOC PACIFIC ENERGY IS JUST COMING ONSHORE OF THE WRN CONUS. AM
EXPECTING THAT FCST GUIDANCE WILL EXHIBIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
NEXT MDL RUN OR TWO. OTHERWISE THE FCST SPECIFICS ARE TRULY
SPECULATIVE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING EWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WITH NW FLOW
AND DRIER AIR. NLY COMPONENT OF FLOW INITIALLY WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE E SHORE AND ADJACENT WATERS /SST
TEMPS AROUND +7C WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -8C...A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
10-13C WARRANT CLOUDS AND PSBL SHOWERS/. YET ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED AND PUSH EWD AS SFC WINDS EXHIBIT A MORE WLY COMPONENT
WITH TIME. SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT WITH NW WINDS REMAINING
MODEST...NOT THINKING A GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING SCENARIO. MIN TEMPS
AROUND THE LOW 30S. MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD BE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BY FRI MORN.
FRIDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IN CONTROL WITH NW FLOW WEAKENING THRU THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW-LVL MIXING OF DRIER AIR
TO THE SFC. LOOKING LIKE A DAY WHERE CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
FIRE WX SPREAD...YET LESSER WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM REACHING
RED FLAG CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE PD DRY...WITH INCREASING MID LVL
CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF SYS THRU THE ZONAL LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHS AROUND THE UPR 40S WITH LOW 50S ALONG THE SRN TIER OF
NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY NGT INTO THE WEEKEND...
AS EMPHASIZED IN THE OVERVIEW...AM MORE INCLINED TO GO WITH THE
28/0Z CANADIAN/ECMWF PACKAGE AS THE FCST MASS FIELDS ARE MORE
IN-LINE WITH THE SFC OUTCOMES. IN FURTHER DETAIL...DEPENDING UPON
THE EVOLUTION AND PROXIMITY OF THE SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT MID-LVL
TROF WITH NEW ENGLAND...THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DETAILS...
* ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OF A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT IS AMPLIFIED
ALONG WITH SW MID LVL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO H3 JET LVL DYNAMICS AND
DIV ALOFT
* LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SYS /SSW TO NE/ ACROSS THE SFC-H8 WARM
FRNT...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS ADJACENT AND N OF THE WARM FRNT
AROUND H8 WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COUPLES WITH UPR LVL DIFLUENCE
PROMOTING DEEP LYR LIFT /SO AHEAD AND N OF THE SYS THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME GOOD MID-LVL FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND UPR LVL DIV TO PROMOTE
BANDING OF PRECIP/
* CONSEQUENTIALLY THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OVERRUNNING WARM TONGUE OF
AIR OVER UNDERCUTTING SFC COLD AIR /AND NLY FLOW/ FROM THE COLD HIGH
PRES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...MAKING FOR SOME ISSUES WITH PRECIP TYPE
SO AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND IS POSSIBLE...YET
AGAIN THE TIMING /DURING THE DAY OR NIGHT?/ AND PROXIMITY OF THE SFC
LOW /CLOSER TO S NEW ENGLAND WOULD PUSH GREATER PRECIP CHCS AND PSBL
WINTRY WX INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...OR IT MAY REMAIN OUTRIGHT DRY/
ARE KEY FOR THE FCST.
THE FCST AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS A BROAD BLEND OF FCST GUIDANCE
WITH HEAVIER WEIGHT ON THE 28/0Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLN OVER MOST OF
THE WEEKEND AS SOLNS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE STORM. FCST WILL BE
REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. CONFIDENCE AS IT STANDS IS THAT A
SYS IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP S OF NEW ENGLAND...THAT SEEMS CERTAIN...
BUT SPECIFICS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...
WHILE A BRIEF PD OF HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE STORM...IT
APPEARS THE RETURN OF WARM WX IS IN THE CARDS WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM
FRNT INTO MIDWEEK. BUT THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRNT SWEEPS
THRU THE RGN TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN
FCST INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
THROUGH 00Z...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF
MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH 19-20Z. SW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING ALONG THE S COAST.
TONIGHT...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS N ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WHILE
REMAINING VFR CLOSER TO THE S COAST. WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE
TONIGHT.
THURSDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY E OF CT VALLEY. THEN CIGS LIFTING TO VFR IN
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE E NEW ENG.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
1500-2500 FT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. THEN LIFTING TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...
LOW CONFIDENCE. STORM WILL SWEEP S OF NEW ENGLAND LENDING TO PSBL
MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SPECIFICS DEPEND UPON THE TIMING AND
PROXIMITY OF THE SFC LOW WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW. SHOULD SEE
INCREASING ELY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SYS TRACKING S OF NEW
ENGLAND...BECOMING NWLY AND REMAINING MODEST AS THE SYS EXITS E.
PSBL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...MORESO FOR THE S COAST...SO HAVE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS FOR THE SRN TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 25 KT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPANDED THE SCA TO INCLUDE NARRAGNSETT
BAY...BUZZARDS BAY AND MVY SOUND.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
NW FLOW REMAIN BLUSTERY OVER THE WATERS WITH SCTD RAIN AND PSBL SNOW
SHOWERS. SEAS ALONG THE OUTER WATERS TO REMAIN AROUND 5 FT INTO THE
LATE FRI PD BY WHICH TIME WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...
STORM SYS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND DEEPEN AS IT PASSES
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE JUST S OF NEW ENGLAND. ELY FLOW
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE AND SHOULD SEE SEAS BUILD ALONG THE S
COAST ACCORDINGLY. NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THE SYS AS IT DEPARTS. A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST AS THE SPECIFICS OF BOTH THE TIMING
AND PROXIMITY OF THE SFC LOW TO S NEW ENGLAND ARE STILL IN QUESTION.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ232>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1255 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER AROUND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. THE RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND THAT...QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED IN ITS MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AREA AND CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH. REMOVED POPS FROM AREAS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT EVEN THOUGH RPECIP HAS FOR THE MOST PART LEFT THE AREA
RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUCH AS HRRR AND VSREFS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL CLEAR
SKIES OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS...MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE ACCOUNTING FOR CLEARING VERY
WELL...THUS SEEM A TAD LOW ON TODAY/S HIGHS. AS A RESULT...TRENDED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE TO SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS AND EURO ARE A TAD MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE NAM IN REGARD TO PRECIP ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS POPS AS EARLY AS FRI 06Z. THE BEST LIFT
WILL OCCUR IN THE FRI 12-18Z TIME FRAME AS SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...INTRODUCED DEFINITE POPS INTO
GRIDS DURING THAT PERIOD...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON POSITION OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
TEMPS...STUCK WITH A BLEND UNTIL FRIDAY. THAT/S WHEN MODELS
STARTED HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE. TRENDED ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND
LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH SOME REMAINING LOW CHANCES FOR POPS AS FRONT
IS PROGGED TO BE DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
EARNEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDES QUIET DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR THUNDER BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY KBMG...TAFS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR TOO. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA MAY
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED CB SOUTH OF KBMG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT I
DON`T THINK IT WILL AFFECT ANY OF OUR TAF`S.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ON TO THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY TONIGHT.
ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 KNOTS.
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN AND WEST
SECTIONS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD/CP
NEAR TERM...TDUD/CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
324 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MINOR H5 TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KS THIS
AFTERNOON.
AT 19Z...A WEAK SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF DDC. A WARM FRONT
FRONT EXTEND EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KS. THE SFC WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF
I-70. SOUTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S
AND SBCAPE WAS IN THE 2,000 TO 2,500 J/KG RANGE. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO 3,000 TO 3,500
J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL EXPAND
EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE STORMS REACH THE WARM SECTOR THE NEW UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME
ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE ABOUT 40 TO
50 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
CWA. GIVEN THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT WILL ROTATE. THE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...MAY BE UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS. THE LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
WEAKER...THUS TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS BRIEF
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ALSO, IF
SUPERCELLS ARE ISOLATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS THE RUC AND NAM
MODELS SHOW THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 30 TO 40
KTS...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY ISOLATED
SUPERCELL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES FROM 1Z TO 4Z.
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO SEGMENTED SQUALL LINES OR QLCS`S.
INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL...AND THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
QLCS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT I-70 NORTH TO THE NE BORDER.
THOUGH STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY DECREASES. IF A QLCS
DEVELOPS THAN HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS.
THURSDAY...A MORE AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE 12Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SBCAPE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 3,000
J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME
SEVERE. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AHEAD OF THE H5
TROUGH BUT THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL VEER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR SQUALL LINE WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS THE INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CWA. IF THE SFC FRONT MOVES A BIT FASTER
THEN NORTH CENTRAL KS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
GARGAN
CONVECTION TIED TO COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR FRIDAY. MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT COMING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING COULD FALL INTO THE 30S BEHIND THAT
SYSTEM...BUT WITH EXPECTED MIXING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...WOULD
NOT THINK THAT FROST WOULD BE LIKELY.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMUP IS THEN IN STORE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
60
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE OBS SHOW A BAND OF VFR CLOUDS DRIFTING EASTWARD AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD WITH DEVELOPING STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA OVER
THE AREA AFTER 23Z AT KMHK AND 01Z AT KTOP/KFOE. KEPT VCTS AT THIS
TIME AS EXACT TIMING OR COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS IS UNCERTAIN. WIND
SPEEDS BELOW 10 KTS WILL VARY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST AT KMHK TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT KTOP/KFOE THROUGH 20Z
BEFORE BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE 10 KTS. MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIPITATION CLEARS TAF SITES AFTER 05Z
AT KMHK AND 07Z AT KTOP/KFOE.
BOWEN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
308 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE WAS COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CONUS WHILE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT HAS BECOME DIFFUSE
MOST EVIDENT IN THE TD SPREADS LOCATED NEAR I-70 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG CINH IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT BORDERING TOP CWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS
STRONGER 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BECOMES JUXTAPOSED ALONG THE NOSE
OF THE LLJ. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MAINTAINED MID POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP BEFORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 09-11Z OR EARLIER. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
THU-SUN...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES
RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE AREA. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND TRENDED POPS FURTHER EAST COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG/EAST OF
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRI-SAT LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER AND CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRENDED HIGHS ON FRI-SUN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH
READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW-MID 80S SAT-SUN.
MON-WED...ANOTHER MORE ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL RACE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN
TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK SLIM GIVIN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON
THURSDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS TROUGH. FURTHER WEST...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CREATING NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AN AREA OF STRATUS/MVFR CIGS MIGRATED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AT
MIDDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT/DISSIPATE INTO MID-AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WARM FRONT...FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO THE FLINT HILLS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE OR DEVELOP
EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO FAR EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OUT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS/MVFR EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 61 85 56 79 / 30 30 20 10
HUTCHINSON 60 83 54 78 / 30 20 20 10
NEWTON 60 82 57 78 / 30 20 20 10
ELDORADO 61 84 59 79 / 30 30 30 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 62 85 58 81 / 20 20 40 10
RUSSELL 55 80 49 79 / 20 20 20 10
GREAT BEND 58 81 51 78 / 20 20 20 10
SALINA 59 83 54 80 / 30 20 20 10
MCPHERSON 61 82 54 79 / 30 20 20 10
COFFEYVILLE 63 85 59 81 / 30 20 60 20
CHANUTE 61 84 59 81 / 50 20 60 10
IOLA 61 83 59 81 / 50 20 60 10
PARSONS-KPPF 62 85 59 80 / 30 20 60 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
417 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PASS THROUGH OUR FA MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESULTING IN
WARM BUT WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH
WILL BE COMMON UNTIL SUNSET. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND
RUC FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS THE LINE MOSTLY DISSIPATING BEFORE
REACHING OUR NORTHERN AREAS AROUND SUNSET. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC
POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE GIVEN DRY LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY. ONCE THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WILL
SEE WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN BUILDING SE
ON THURSDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TO ALLOW FOR BREEZY NW WINDS (ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH MID AFTN). DRY AIRMASS BUILDING IN WITH THE SFC HIGH WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES/H85 TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE MID-60S ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TO
THE LOW/MID 70S IN THE SW ZONES. TURNING CHILLY AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS
IN THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS FOR A S-SE FLOW. ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT. AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
TO THE WIND WILL CAUSE THE COOLEST TEMPS TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NR 60 ON THE LWR MD EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOW
70S IN OUR SW ZONES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING LOW.
WILL THEN CARRY LOW END CHC POPS ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC
LOW TRAVERSES THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S. HIGHS SATURDAY FROM THE 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE
MID/UPR 70S IN OUR SW ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THE HIGH APPEARS RATHER WEAK WILL GO
WITH THE IDEA OF IT MOVING OFF THE COAST BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN THE EASTERN SHORE TO MID 70S
IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY
ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMA WERE RAISED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WEST
OF THE BAY...BUT LATEST LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT LOW TO
MID 80S INLAND. TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A 15-20KT SW
WIND WITH 25-30KT GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS OF
17-18Z IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL THE LOCAL TAF SITES VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SBY WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE (ALBEIT LOW) OF A TS AROUND
22-00Z...WITH A FEW SHOWERS PROGRESSING DOWN THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF SHRA OR TS AFFECTING A TERMINAL IS LOW...SO
NO WEATHER HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE COLD
FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH A GUSTY NW WIND
DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST). THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF 15-20KT SUSTAINED WIND WITH
25-30KT GUSTS.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY. THE SW WIND OF TODAY
WILL DECLINE THIS EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NW AND INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN LATE. A MODESTLY STRONG NW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS IS...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SCA CONDITIONS COULD END
BEFORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS NOT ANY RAIN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 12-20 MPH THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
TUMBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 22-32 PERCENT
RANGE. AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE FIRE AGENCIES IN MD AND
VA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES ATTM BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE SEE WIDESPREAD 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE
HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT AND THEN WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR A PORTION OF OUR MD AND VA COUNTIES
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ630>634-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
FIRE WEATHER...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
347 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PASS THROUGH OUR FA MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESULTING IN
WARM BUT WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH
WILL BE COMMON UNTIL SUNSET. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND
RUC FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS THE LINE MOSTLY DISSIPATING BEFORE
REACHING OUR NORTHERN AREAS AROUND SUNSET. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGT CHC
POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE GIVEN DRY LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY. ONCE THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WILL
SEE WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN BUILDING SE
ON THURSDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TO ALLOW FOR BREEZY NW WINDS (ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH MID AFTN). DRY AIRMASS BUILDING IN WITH THE SFC HIGH WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES/H85 TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE MID-60S ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TO
THE LOW/MID 70S IN THE SW ZONES. TURNING CHILLY AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS
IN THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS FOR A S-SE FLOW. ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT. AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
TO THE WIND WILL CAUSE THE COOLEST TEMPS TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NR 60 ON THE LWR MD EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOW
70S IN OUR SW ZONES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING LOW.
WILL THEN CARRY LOW END CHC POPS ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC
LOW TRAVERSES THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S. HIGHS SATURDAY FROM THE 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE
MID/UPR 70S IN OUR SW ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL LEAN A LITTLE CLSR TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
A WRM FRNT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT...WITH LO
PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE EWRD ALNG THE BNDRY...AND OFF THE CST. HAVE
SML CHC FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS DURING SAT...THEN SLGT OR SML CHC FOR
SHOWERS SAT NGT INTO SUN MORNG. HI PRES WILL BLD IN AND PROVIDE
DRY WX FOR SUN AFTN THRU MON. A COLD FRNT WILL THEN BRING AT LEAST
A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS MON NGT AND TUE.
MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S THRU THE PERIOD.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO UPR 70S SAT...AND MAINLY
RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S SUN...MON AND TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A 15-20KT SW
WIND WITH 25-30KT GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS OF
17-18Z IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL THE LOCAL TAF SITES VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SBY WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE (ALBEIT LOW) OF A TS AROUND
22-00Z...WITH A FEW SHOWERS PROGRESSING DOWN THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF SHRA OR TS AFFECTING A TERMINAL IS LOW...SO
NO WEATHER HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE COLD
FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH A GUSTY NW WIND
DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST). THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF 15-20KT SUSTAINED WIND WITH
25-30KT GUSTS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WINDY PERIOD ON TAP TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. TIMING OF WHEN
WNDS ACTUALLY REACH SCA LEVELS RATHER PROBLEMATIC. GIST OF FORECAST
WAS TO INCREASE SW WINDS INTO SCA LEVELS OVER THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA.
GIVEN WAA OVER COOLER WATERS...MIXING WILL BE LIMITED SO WILL STICK
WITH A MINIMAL SCA ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS ARND 25 KTS...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORE.
LATEST GUID SUGGESTS A LULL IN WINDS THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD EITHER SIDE OF THE FROPA...WITH CAA INCREASING THE WINDS
LATER TONIGHT. DID NOT WANT TO SPLIT UP THE HEADLINES INTO 2 EVENTS
SO WILL ONLY CARRY ONE LONG HEADLINE TO COVER BOTH SIDES OF THE
FRONT TO KEEP IT SIMPLE. DECENT CAA THURSDAY WILL INCREASE LAPSE
RATES AND ALLOW GOOD MIXING. BUFFER DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS ARND 30 KTS
SO WILL CAP THE GUSTS AT THAT LEVEL ATTM.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS NOT ANY RAIN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 12-20 MPH THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
TUMBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 22-32 PERCENT
RANGE. AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE FIRE AGENCIES IN MD AND
VA...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES ATTM BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE SEE WIDESPREAD 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE
HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT AND THEN WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR A PORTION OF OUR MD AND VA COUNTIES
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ630>634-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
404 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RIDGE IN THE PLAINS. SHRTWV/SFC LO
THAT IMPACTED THE AREA YDAY IS NOW MOVING E THRU QUEBEC...BUT CYC
SFC-H85 NW FLOW OF MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE UPR GRT LKS.
A SHRTWV OVER MN IS MOVING SEWD...AND IN CONCERT WITH SOME DEEPER
MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB HAS CAUSED SOME SCT -SHRA THAT ARE
MIXING WITH SN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FM THE NW...WHERE THE 12Z H85
TEMP WAS AS LO AS -9C AT YPL. BUT UPSTREAM RAOBS SHOW MID LVL DRYING
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV IS SPREADING SEWD TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS.
DESPITE THE HIER LVL DRYING...MUCH LO CLD LINGERS IN THE LLVL CYC
FLOW OF THE MOISTER LLVLS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS. SOME
CLEARING IS SHOWING UP OVER MANITOBA CLOSER TO DRIER LLVL AIR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z THE PAS RAOB AND SFC HI PRES/RDG AXIS UNDER THE UPR RDG.
FARTHER TO THE W...A STRONG DISTURBANCE HAS COME ASHORE INTO THE PAC
NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE CLD/CLEARING TRENDS AND TEMPS.
TNGT...UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO THE W ARE FCST TO BUILD INTO
THE UPR GRT LKS. WITH MORE ACYC FLOW AND SOME DRYING...EXPECT AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLRG ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS AWAY FM LK SUP IN
SLOWLY VEERING FLOW TO MORE NNE BY 12Z THU. BUT EXTENSIVE CLD COVER
UPSTREAM/LINGERING H925 THERMAL TROF SUGS THE SC WL BE MORE
RESILIENT IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE UNDER STRENGTHENING INVRN
ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS
WELL DOWN IN THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W WHERE MORE EXTENSIVE CLRG
IS MOST LIKELY.
THU...AS HI PRES IN ONTARIO DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E AND DISTURBANCE
NOW IN THE PAC NW/SFC LO MOVE TOWARD MN LATE...THE LLVL FLOW WL VEER
TO THE E THRU THE DAY. LINGERING LK SC SHOULD SHIFT TO MAINLY OVER
THE HURON MTNS/KEWEENAW AS MID/HIER CLD IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG
DISTURBANCE ARRIVE IN THE AFTN. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AT MOVING
PCPN E INTO THE WRN CWA IN THE AFTN...BUT WL FOLLOW THE SLOWER 12Z
NAM/CNDN/UKMET AND 00Z ECWMF WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
HUDSON BAY HI PRES IN PLACE AND GFS FCST SHARPER QVECTOR CNVGC/FGEN
HOLDING FARTHER TO THE W. MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI
TEMPS APRCHG 45 AWAY FM LK MODERATION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS POISED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY JUST TO THE WEST OF CWA LARGE SCALE LIFT
FM THE SHORTWAVE IS COMPLEMENTED NICELY BY 925-850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT FM JET STREAK OVR ONTARIO. ALL THIS
FORCING IS ACTING ON RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS UP TOWARD 200
PCT OF NORMAL. SINCE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING MAINLY SOUTH OF
UPR MI AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION/H85 THERMAL GRADIENT FADES THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT PCPN TO LIGHTEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS POINT TO PTYPE MAINLY TAKING THE FORM OF
SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE IN WAY OF NEAR SFC WARM LAYER ON SOUNDINGS.
BASED ON PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THIS REPRESENTS A TREND IN THE COOLER
DIRECTION. EXPLICIT QPF OUTPUT WITH THE COLDER TREND WOULD SUGGEST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR WEST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WILL NOT GO WITH THAT MUCH QPF/SNOW YET
THOUGH BASED ON NEGATIVE FACTORS MENTIONED BEFORE. STILL...COULD
SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW OVER INTERIOR WEST AND SCNTRL. MAJORITY
OF PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE SCNTRL/EASTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTN. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WITH THE PCPN ALONG WITH SE WIND OFF LK MICHIGAN WILL HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES OVR MOST OF THE CWA IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY OVER CNTRL CANADA ON SATURDAY BUT MAIN
IMPACTS FM DISTURBANCE FCST TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF CWA WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AND ALONG AND EAST OF TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. DO HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS /JUST RAIN AT THIS
POINT/ OVER LK SUPERIOR AND IN NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...PIECE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LOW THEN SLIDE INTO THE UPR LAKES ON
MONDAY. DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE MODELS /GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW SLOWS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY EVEN
TRY TO CUT OFF OVR UPR LAKES AND/OR ONTARIO. NCEP PREFERS THE SLOWER
APPROACH AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY. EVENTUALLY GENERAL RESULT
WILL BE COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. INITIALLY THOUGH...MONDAY COULD BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OUT
AHEAD OF UPR LOW. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON DETAILS AS GFS SHOWS MUCH
MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER QPF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHILE ECMWF INDICATES A SHARPER COLD FRONT WITH GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES TO 7C/KM AND SI/S BLO 0C. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DUE TO SHARPER 1000-850MB MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE FCST IN AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED
WARMER WITH INCREASED CHANCE OF CONVECTION. HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCES
FOR THUNDER...FIRST ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ON EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND THEN ON MONDAY WITH THE FROPA.
COLDER AIR WORKS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GFS IS BROADER AND
LESS AMPLIFIED WITH OVERALL TROUGH WHILE ECMWF INDICATES COOLER AIR
SLOWLY MOVING IN ON TUESDAY WITH STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING
BY WEDNESDAY WITH SHARPER COLD FRONT FCST. ALTHOUGH CONSISTENCY IN
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH FM THE MODELS HAS BEEN MUDDLED...DOES APPEAR
TO BE A TREND IN HOLDING ON TO THE TROUGH LONGER AND KEEPING COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER GREAT LAKES LONGER FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. TREND
MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP COMPARED TO MORE ZONAL PATTERN IN PLACE CURRENTLY.
LATEST ECMWF SLOWER YET IN KEEPING COOL TROUGHING OVER GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. TRYING TO PIN DOWN DETAILS TOUGH
AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS KIND OF PATTERN WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO
BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO UPR LAKES...ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING
AND/OR ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH. CONSENSUS POPS SHOW
SMALL CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WHICH SEEMS ON TRACK. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS PERIOD AND VEER TO ENE AT ALL
SITES AS HI PRES RDG/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT BUILDS INTO THE UPR GRT
LKS. ALTHOUGH MORE ACYC FLOW/SOME LLVL DRYING WL RESULT IN
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY THIS EVNG...EXTENSIVE LO CLD/CIGS
OBSERVED UPSTREAM SUGGEST A MORE PESSIMISTIC CIG FORECAST THAN SHOWN
ON PREVIOUS TAFS. OPTED TO FCST AN MVFR CIG LATER TNGT/EARLY THU AT
CMX/SAW DURING TIMES OF UPSLOPE FLOW. THE BEST CHC OF A MORE
PERSISTENT VFR CONDITION WL BE AT IWD...WHERE EXPECTED ENE LLVL FLOW
WL DOWNSLOPE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
EXPECT NW WINDS UP TO 30 KTS EARLY OVER THE E HALF TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. AS THE HI CENTER SHIFTS
EWD TOWARD HUDSON BAY ON THU...A STRONGER E WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LK SUP WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCES THIS FLOW. GUSTY
EAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON EAST HALF OF LK
SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN INTO SUNDAY AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY
SLOW MOVING...IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
321 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS POPS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FARMINGTON WEST-NORTHWEST
BETWEEN COLUMBIA AND SEDALIA TO NEAR TOPEKA. UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS
EVIDENT IN CUMULUS FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
BREAKING OUT SOUTH OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN SHOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE INSTABILITY AND
FORCING IS GREATEST. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT CONVECTIVE MODE THE
STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY TAKE. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS GREAT ENOUGH
FOR SOME ORGANIZATION...AND THE HRRR HAS ALTERNATELY BEEN DEVELOPING
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...BOW ECHOS...AND OCCASIONALLY MULTICELL
CLUSTERS. THINK EITHER THE MULTICELL CLUSTER OR BOW ECHO IS MOST
LIKELY. FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD MOVE ANY MCS THAT
DEVELOPS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. STORMS SHOULD RUN
OUT OF INSTABILITY AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SHOULD BE
IN THE WANING PHASE. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FRONT LIFTS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...THEN
ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ACROSS
IOWA AND MISSOURI ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT.
CARNEY
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS POPS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FARMINGTON WEST-NORTHWEST
BETWEEN COLUMBIA AND SEDALIA TO NEAR TOPEKA. UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS
EVIDENT IN CUMULUS FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
BREAKING OUT SOUTH OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN SHOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE INSTABILITY AND
FORCING IS GREATEST. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT CONVECTIVE MODE THE
STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY TAKE. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS GREAT ENOUGH
FOR SOME ORGANIZATION...AND THE HRRR HAS ALTERNATELY BEEN DEVELOPING
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...BOW ECHOS...AND OCCASIONALLY MULTICELL
CLUSTERS. THINK EITHER THE MULTICELL CLUSTER OR BOW ECHO IS MOST
LIKELY. FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD MOVE ANY MCS THAT
DEVELOPS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. STORMS SHOULD RUN
OUT OF INSTABILITY AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SHOULD BE
IN THE WANING PHASE. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FRONT LIFTS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...THEN
ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ACROSS
IOWA AND MISSOURI ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S. A SHARP TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS OR THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS MAKING PRECIP TIMING DIFFICULT...BUT EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT TO BE MORE SEASONABLE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
FRONT BISECTS THE CWA WITH ALL TERMINALS TO THE NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FRONT IS
ATTEMPTING TO BUCKLE BACK NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND THIS
IS WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP NEAR KANSAS CITY AND
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE OZARKS
OVERNIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT KCOU...WITH JUST AN
INCREASE OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL. LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION THAT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
TERMINAL THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
303 PM MDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT. THIS EVENING THE FRONT SPREADS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA...LOSING SOME OF ITS PUNCH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES...BUT CAPE THAT IS APPARENT TO OUR WEST
DISSIPATES BY 00Z. BOTH THE RUC AND GFS BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PHILLIPS AND
VALLEY COUNTIES. KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THE
MOSTLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL
WHILE SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL TREND TEMPERATURES UPWARD.
THICKNESS HEIGHTS BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 540DM...THEN
INCREASE TO OVER 550DM BY EVENING. SO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO AROUND 15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
WILL WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A MILD DAY.
THICKNESS HEIGHTS INCREASE TO AROUND 560DM ON FRIDAY SO HIGHS COULD
REACH AROUND 25F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...WHICH
COULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGEST WARM TEMPERATURES...OVERCAST SKY COVER COULD
LIMIT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. SCT
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE BULK OF CHANGES WERE MADE IN REGARDS TO THE LATE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT
GIVEN ANY SOLUTION A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA...WITH COOLER MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGERING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS CONSERVATIVELY TRENDED UP POPS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME. ALSO TRENDED UP WINDS
AS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS WINDY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE ANY OTHER TWEAKS WERE MINOR AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...A MODERATELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE W ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND...WHICH MODELS AGREE WITH
AND ALL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OVER PARTS OF NE MT.
DIFFERENCES THOUGH ON LOCATION IN NE MT...AS MOST...BUT NOT
ALL...RECENT MODELS KEEP THE STRONGER PART OF THE SYSTEM OVER
CANADA. ALSO WITH POOR MODEL HANDLING OF PAST FEW SYSTEMS AND THE
DRY PATTERN OF LATE...WILL GO SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS. 2
PERIODS OF CHANCE POPS LOOK PLENTY ADEQUATE.
THE AIR-MASS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERY
PRECIP...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...ALTHOUGH MODELS
TEND OVERLY UNSTABLE IN EARLY SPRING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWS...BUT THEY VARY QUITE A BIT TOO ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION FOR SOME PRECIP TO END AS SNOW LATE SAT
NIGHT. ADDED SNOW SHOWER MENTION TO ONLY N VALLEY AND SW PHILLIPS
ZONES. A VERY WINDY DAY SUNDAY THOUGH AS 850 WINDS OF 35 TO 50
KT LIKELY TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST
MODELS FAVOR RIDGING WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODEST WARMING. LATEST
GFS WAS AN OUTLIER WITH OTHER MODELS THOUGH AND LOOKS THAT WAY ON
ITS ENSEMBLES AS IT BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN VERY QUICK TUE/WED.
SIMONSEN
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY DOMINATE AT ALL THE TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL BRING A
FEW SHOWERS...BUT CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WHEN THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10KTS. A WIND SHIFT
WILL OCCUR WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
GILCHRIST
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BASED ON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER 20S AND WINDS OF 15-20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME CRITICAL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALSO BASED ON EXPECTED
WARM TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...ALONG
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20MPH. SCT
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FIRST 27 DAYS OF MARCH ARE THE WARMEST ON RECORD IN GLASGOW.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 40.7 DEGREES IS 10.0 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SETTING THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR
THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH...WHICH WAS MARCH 1986. MARCH WILL MAKE
FOR THE 9TH STRAIGHT MONTH THAT HAS BEEN WARMER THAN NORMAL.
THE 26 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 2ND TO THE 27TH...ONLY 0.07 INCH OF
PRECIP FELL...WHICH IS TIED FOR 10TH DRIEST. DUE TO 0.33 ON THE
FIRST...MARCH AS A WHOLE WILL NOT RANK AS UNUSUALLY DRY. SIMONSEN
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
100 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEADING TO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED THIS
MORNING. 28.12Z KILN RAOB INDICATED IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM ABOUT 900MB...AND NO
DOUBT SOME OF THIS BEING REALIZED WITH SHOWERS/SCT STORMS SEEN ON
KILN WSR-88D THIS MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT THUS FAR DRIVEN BY
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION...AS SFC COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL BACK
IN NWRN OH INTO SWRN IND.
FRONT SHOULD PASS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ILN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 6 PM...AND THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FROM THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /NSSL-WRF...NCEP ARW WRF...AND HRRR/
THAT CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ALONG/JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PEAKING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN/SERN FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 2PM AND 5 PM. BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM IN THE
LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NERN KY...WHERE BEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WILL HAVE BUILT. 28.12Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AT PMH VALID 20Z INDICATE DEEP WLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...AND
STRONG...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY BUT NOT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS DEFINITELY LACKING. WIND/HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS IN THE FAR SOUTH.
BACK TO THE N/W BEHIND THE FRONT IN WCNTL/CNTL OH...AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND CRASHING DEWPOINTS/COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING WINDS UP IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GET SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS IN
THE WIND PRONE AREAS. LAPSE RATES ON FCST SOUNDINGS ARE STEEP WITH
A STRONG FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
CHANGES THIS MORNING TO FORECAST TO BUMP WINDS UP JUST A BIT IN
THE NORTH...AND BUMP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTH UP A BIT. OTHERWISE
FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THE COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A 10-15 DEGREE DROP FROM WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION NOT REALLY KICKING BACK IN UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO TWO NIGHTS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THINGS. TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT APPEAR
THAT THEY MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME FROST...ALTHOUGH A
LACK OF MOISTURE MAY PRECLUDE THIS FROM OCCURRING. CONDITIONS FOR
A FREEZE IN CENTRAL OHIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE THAN THEY DID PREVIOUSLY (WITH A BUMP FORWARD IN TIMING
ON THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM)...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY STILL ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE TO KEEP AN HWO MENTION.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. OF CONCERN IS THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
STEADY IN ITS SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON
A FASTER PROGRESSION AND STRONGER SURFACE LOW. THUS...CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS BELOW AVERAGE.
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS CERTAIN TO OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...AND THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SPED UP
IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON FRONTS...TEMPERATURES...AND ANY POTENTIAL
SEVERE THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
THE COOLEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MID 60S FORECAST
DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS BEHIND THE LOW. THE WARMEST
READINGS INTO THE MID 70S ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WHEN ADVECTION
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z TAFS WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE SITES...AS IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH/EAST OF
KCVG/KLUK BY 18Z. THEREFORE...TAFS MAINLY DEAL WITH GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS TODAY AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH AND COLD
ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES YIELD SOME WNWLY GUSTS TO 25
OR 30KTS. DO EXPECT SOME SCT CUMULUS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NEAR CNTL OH BUT SHOULD BE VFR. WATCHING ANOTHER BATCH
OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER WI/LOWER MI THAT MAY TRY TO STRETCH INTO
CNTL OH AND THE MIAMI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW THINKING IT
WILL BREAK UP/SCATTER AS IT DOES SO. WILL HINT AT THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE ITEM WITH SCTO25-SCT030 HOWEVER. FLOW SHOULD TURN NLY
OVERNIGHT AND NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE...WINDS STAYING ABOVE 5KTS
IN MOST AREAS. COULD EVEN TURN NELY FOR A TIME AT THE CINCINNATI
AREA TERMINALS. A QUIET THURSDAY IN STORE WITH RESIDUAL
STRATOCUMULUS /AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO BE VFR AND SCATTERED/ WITH
LIGHT NLY FLOW.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...
CONVOLUTED PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE LARGE
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO OUR SE AND GENERAL WEAK
KINEMATICS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THE DRYLINE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
DIFFUSE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH AS OF 3 PM...SOME BACKING OF THE
SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
ERN GAINES COUNTY THROUGH BRISCOE COUNTY. MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THE MCS IS MOVING TOWARD THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WITH NEAR 60F
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING STONEWALL COUNTY. THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION OF A
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN ANY OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BE NEARLY UNCAPPED WITH ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALOFT...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
LOCATED IN NRN MX BUT THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAR REMOVED TO PROVIDE
SIGNIFICANT LIFT THIS EVENING. THUS THE ENVIRONMENT IS JUST
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH WEAK
DRYLINE FORCING WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLD STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SRN SPLNS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE
STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS BUT IF A STORM CAN TAP INTO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SE THERE MAY BE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT
AS WELL. THE DRYLINE SHOULD RETREAT THROUGH MOST OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT...WITH HOPEFULLY NO REPEAT OF THE NOCTURNAL MCS
INTERCEPTING OUR MOISTURE RETURN.
SOME LIGHT FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED EARLY THU MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE
DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FCST SDNGS SHOW THAT THE AIRMASS SHOULD WARM UP NICELY IN THE DRY
AIR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS APPROACHING 90F ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL
SPLNS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF SFC HEATING...A LITTLE MORE SHARPLY DEFINED
DRYLINE...AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...WE THINK THE POTENTIAL WILL IMPROVE FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE THU AFTERNOON/EVE. FCST
SDNGS SHOW A DEEP DRY-ADIABATIC CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE
DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH NO INHIBITION...AND MODEST
MLCAPES...AROUND 1000 J/KG OR SO. IN ADDITION...SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK. THIS WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...AND KEEP
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF THE LIFT AND DRYLINE LOCATION
PREVENT US FROM GOING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM...
LARGELY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST FOR MUCH /IF NOT ALL/ OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS MECHANISMS FOR ASCENT APPEAR HARD TO COME BY WITHIN
WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. EVEN THE RECENT DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN DIFFUSE DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND FRIDAY AS IT
MIXES ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. VERTICAL
CIRCULATIONS WITH SUCH DRYLINES ARE GREATLY REDUCED...BUT WE HAVE
RETAINED SOME MENTION OF PRECIP OFF THE CAP THU NIGHT AS A SHALLOW
S/W TROF IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS GLANCES THE REGION. ALSO...SUBTLE
UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER WIND MAX
COULD OFFER A BIT MORE ASSISTANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER BEFORE
LIFT DIMINISHES LATE IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE A FRONTOLYSIZING COLD
FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH FROM THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE S/W
TROF...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS IS NOT BODING
WELL FOR STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO CONVECT
THIS DAY...ALTHOUGH THIS RECENT OVERZEALOUS NATURE OF THE MODEL
HAS NOT ENJOYED MUCH SUCCESS SO WE ARE QUITE DOUBTFUL OF ITS QPF.
APPROACH OF A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND WILL
SECURE STRONGER W-SWLY WINDS IN THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERE.
SUBSEQUENT BOOST OF THICKNESSES SHOULD EASILY PUSH MOST AREA HIGHS
AOA 90 DEG AS THE DRYLINE MIXES NEAR OR JUST BEYOND OUR ERN
COUNTIES. TREND WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN A BIT
AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN AND THIS WOULD DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
STRONGEST WINDS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. BIGGEST
CHANGE HERE CONCERNS THE IMPENDING PACIFIC FRONT THAT IS NOW
PROGGED TO RID MUCH OF THE LONE STAR STATE OF GULF MOISTURE ON
MONDAY AS THE BASE OF THE TROF BECOMES -TILTED AND DIVES INTO THE
OZARKS. THIS WILL LIKELY DELAY THE RETURN OF MOISTURE MUCH LATER
THAN EARLIER FORECASTS SUGGESTED...SO A DRY START TO APRIL APPEARS
IN ORDER. TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET BLO NORMAL FOR A CHANGE ON MONDAY
WITH GRADUAL MODIFICATION THEREAFTER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 46 85 44 82 48 / 10 10 10 10 10
TULIA 50 87 48 85 49 / 10 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 50 88 49 86 50 / 10 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 49 89 50 87 50 / 10 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 54 90 53 88 52 / 10 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 49 89 50 86 50 / 10 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 50 90 52 86 51 / 10 20 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 58 89 56 88 54 / 10 20 20 10 10
SPUR 55 88 56 87 53 / 20 20 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 61 87 58 87 56 / 10 20 20 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1233 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY...THERE IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTH/NORTHWEST TOWARD THE KBBD TERMINAL. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT
OF A SMALL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AREA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO IMPACT BRADY BETWEEN NOW
AND 19Z BEFORE GENERALLY DISSIPATING. ALSO EXPECT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE TO BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD
AS THE DISTURBANCE DOES AS WELL. OVERNIGHT...WE MAY SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA...AND TRY TO
MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE GETTING A CHANCE TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT...SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL STRUGGLE TO IMPACT KSJT AND KABI...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
SCT020 GROUP FOR THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KSOA...KJCT AND KBBD. 20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND MAX TEMPS FOR
TODAY AS WELL AS WX/POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE HRRR SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP THE
AREA CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR NOW...AND KEEP AN
EYE ON IT. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012/
DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/
AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WAS REDEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THIS
MORNING...HAVING BEEN PARTIALLY DISRUPTED BY MCS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. CIGS EXPECTED TO LIFT OR SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL NEAR
SONORA...MAINLY AFTER 3Z. HAVE STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORABLE TIMES TONIGHT...6Z AT KJCT AND KSOA...7Z
AT KBBD...AND 9Z AT SJT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012/
SHORT TERM...
MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH CROCKETT AND SUTTON COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE RIVER THIS
MORNING...AS FAR SOUTH AS LAREDO. MCS DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND FT STOCKTON YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVED
SOUTHEAST. IT HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE CONCHO VALLEY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANT THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS TONIGHT
HOWEVER...TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CONCHO VALLEY...AS BOTH NAM
AND GFS MODELS INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND FORT STOCKTON...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST.
APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL HELP PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT. DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF MCS REMAINS PROBLEMATIC
HOWEVER... AS STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE WEAK...AND MCS MOVEMENT
WILL BE DEPENDENT IF OR WHERE A STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPS. WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS OVER CROCKETT COUNTY TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR NEAR BAJA WILL SLIDE
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THURSDAY...AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. RIGHT
NOW...WILL FOCUS POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...WHERE A REMNANT MCS FROM TONIGHT AND/OR ITS BOUNDARIES
MAY STILL BE IN THE AREA...AND ALONG THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND
BIG COUNTRY ALONG THE DRYLINE. WILL THEN SPREAD THE RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE SPEED
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...BUT
FOR RIGHT NOW...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT SOME POPS FOR THE EASTERN AREA INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE QUESTIONABLE...AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG
THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE AREA. COULD RUN ISOLATED POPS FOR THE
FEW STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP...BUT AT THIS POINT...WILL JUST OPT TO
NOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT ALL. FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...KNOCKING DOWN THE WELL ABOVE
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SOMETHING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 61 84 61 85 57 / 10 20 30 20 10
SAN ANGELO 60 83 60 84 56 / 20 30 30 20 10
JUNCTION 61 80 62 80 57 / 20 30 40 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
347 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
347 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
AT 3 PM...A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WAS PRODUCING A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT THESE CLOUDS ARE CELLULAR IN
NATURE...THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S. DUE TO THIS...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. DUE TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AND THE
PROXIMITY TO THE UNUSUALLY WARM MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE CITY OF
LA CROSSE MAY NOT SEE FROST...BUT THE REMAINDER OF LA CROSSE
COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE FROST ALONG WITH BUFFALO...TREMPEALEAU...AND
VERNON COUNTIES. DUE TO THIS...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT.
ON THURSDAY...THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...
SO THE PRECIPITATION WAS REMOVED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH
SHOWERS...THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB UP TO 250 J/KG. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER AREA OF COOLER AIR WILL SPILL
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. BOTH OF THESE TIME PERIODS HAVE BEEN GETTING PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER ACROSS WISCONSIN. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES A
FEW MORE DEGREES THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UNLIKE TONIGHT...
THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUDS. HOWEVER IF THERE
IS LESS CLOUDS...WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER NIGHT FOR POTENTIAL FROST AND
FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
347 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE MUCH SLOWER AT MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE AS COLD WHAT THE ECMWF OR GEM IS
INDICATING...SO THEY MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE.
ON SUNDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO 16 TO 18C RANGE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO MID AND UPPER 70S. THERE MAY BE
EVEN A FEW LOW 80S.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A BIT
SLOWER MOVING INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
1236 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS IS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WRAPPING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CEILING HEIGHTS WITHIN
THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK ARE IN THE MVFR RANGE OF 2000 TO 3500 FEET.
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE DECK OF CLOUDS
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS SLOWLY ERODING ON SOUTHERN FLANK
PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST 28.15Z RUC AND 28.12Z
NAM SHOW STRATOCUMULUS DECK TO HOLD TOGETHER BEFORE ERODING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS AT 850MB AND 925MB. FOR NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED BROKEN LAYER
AT MVFR CONDITIONS AT KRST AND ADDED A TEMPO GROUP OF SCATTERED
CLOUDS THROUGH 22Z WEDNESDAY. AT KLSE...CEILINGS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE
ABOVE 3000 FEET AND IN THE VFR RANGE. NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC 28.12Z
MODELS SHOW PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 13Z THURSDAY. SUSTAIN WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUST UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
253 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ032-033-041-
053.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1237 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
.SHORT TERM...
356 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES CENTERED ON THU NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS LOW STILL
EXTENDED ACROSS MN/WI/MUCH OF IA AND CONTINUED TO RELAX EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS ACROSS MOST OF MN/WI REMAINED IN THE 10-20KT
RANGE. CLOUDS IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW COVERED CENTRAL/
NORTHERN MN AND WI NORTH OF HWY 29...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION COOLING
IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BUT REMAINED WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
28.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS QUITE SIMILAR FOR TODAY
THRU THU THEN DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
SFC LOW/TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY THU NIGHT.
DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 28.00Z SHOWED THE RUNS OF 26.00Z AND
27.00Z VERIFIED WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC WITH BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY BY ECMWF. MODELS CONVERGING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS
THRU THU AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z FRI. FROM THERE MODELS DIVERGE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST THRU THE REGION
THU NIGHT/FRI. SOMEWHAT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BY ECMWF THU
NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...BUT COULD BE BETTER. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL
DATA AT 06Z SHOWED MODELS ON TRACK WITH THE SFC FEATURES OVER
CENTRAL NOAM. PER WV IMAGERY...ECMWF/GEM LOOKED BETTER THAN
NAM/GFS/MET WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST. ECMWF/GEM ARE A COUPLE OF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WITH THIS
ENERGY AS IT CROSSES THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY THU NIGHT/FRI. WITH
ECMWF/GEM LOOKING BETTER AT 06Z...FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
WEIGHTED TOWARD THEM ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
MODEL SPREAD FCST CONFIDENCE FALLS TO AVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE LOW NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR MOVES QUICKLY AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER MDT 925 PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS
REMAIN OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO AROUND 900MB...WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK/BREEZY TODAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS RATHER QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND IS OVER EASTERN WI BY 12Z THU. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING BUT APPEARS WINDS MAY STIR/INCREASE A BIT
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
COLDEST OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS...WITH LOWS TONIGHT
FALLING INTO THE 30S...COLDEST ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. CONTINUED
MENTION OF FROST OVER MAINLY THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
WILL LEAVE ANY POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT TO DAY CREW WHO CAN
MONITOR TEMPS/DEWPOINT/WIND TRENDS THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THU WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN IT AND THE NEXT LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SPREADS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THU WITH THE INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING THE
WEST END OF THE FCST AREA EITHER LATE THU AFTERNOON OR THU EVENING.
DEEPER/STRONGER OF THE FORCING FROM 925-850MB WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU PV ADVECTION/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. ADDED A SMALL
-SHRA CHANCE TO THE WEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE THU AFTERNOON TO
BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. RAISED RAIN CHANCES BY LATE THU NIGHT
TOWARD 80 PERCENT WITH EVEN THE LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS ALL PRODUCING
SOME PRECIP OVER THE AREA. LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM FOR
FRI...CONTINUED 20-50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST EAST...OVER THE
FCST AREA FRI MORNING. CAPE LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/LIFT AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR NEUTRAL STABILITY ABOVE 850MB CONTINUED
MENTION OF ISOLATED OR SCT TSRA IN THE LATE THU AFTERNOON THRU FRI
MORNING PERIODS. WEAK SFC-500MB RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
LATER FRI/FRI NIGHT. LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM...ANY
RETURNING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION WOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT AND REMOVED THE SMALL -SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY...AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTH
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...FAVORED WARMER OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS. WITH
THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...FAVORED COOLER OF GUIDANCE
LOWS TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HIGHS SIMILAR AND LOOK REASONABLE FOR THU.
WITH THICKER CLOUDS/-SHRA...FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS THU
NIGHT. WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/
LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
356 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
SOME IMPROVEMENT OF CONSISTENCY AMONG 28.00Z MODEL RUNS FOR SAT INTO
SUN...BUT BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO
LEAVE A LOT TO BE DESIRED BY SUN NIGHT AND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE SAT INTO SUN WITH IMPROVING MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WEEKEND TRENDING TO BE DRY OR ONLY VERY SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND
A WARMING PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING/RISING HGTS AND PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER THE REGION. WITH THE VERY LOW CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MODELS BY MON/TUE...FCST CONFIDENCE THESE PERIODS QUITE
LOW AS WELL. SOME SIGNAL AMONG ALL MODELS FOR TROUGHING TO MOVE
INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME BUT DETAIL
DIFFERENCE QUITE LARGE. ONE OF THE MOST EXTREME SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS THE UKMET...WITH A LARGE NEGATIVE TILT CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGH AND A 984MB SFC LOW NEAR KDBQ MON EVENING. IMPLICATIONS FOR
THIS WOULD NOT GO WELL WITH OUR WARM/EARLY START TO SPRING. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AND ALL THE MODEL SPREAD STAYED NEAR THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS FOR DAYS 6/7. DID RAISE HIGHS A BIT SUNDAY WITH STRONG
RIDGING/WARMING AHEAD OF ANY TROUGHING/SFC LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
1236 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS IS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WRAPPING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CEILING HEIGHTS WITHIN
THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK ARE IN THE MVFR RANGE OF 2000 TO 3500 FEET.
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE DECK OF CLOUDS
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS SLOWLY ERODING ON SOUTHERN FLANK
PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST 28.15Z RUC AND 28.12Z
NAM SHOW STRATOCUMULUS DECK TO HOLD TOGETHER BEFORE ERODING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS AT 850MB AND 925MB. FOR NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED BROKEN LAYER
AT MVFR CONDITIONS AT KRST AND ADDED A TEMPO GROUP OF SCATTERED
CLOUDS THROUGH 22Z WEDNESDAY. AT KLSE...CEILINGS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE
ABOVE 3000 FEET AND IN THE VFR RANGE. NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC 28.12Z
MODELS SHOW PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 13Z THURSDAY. SUSTAIN WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUST UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
356 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...DTJ