Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/27/12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1104 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO EASTERN CO MAY RESULT IN SOME IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VIS IN FOG EAST OF KLHX AFTER 08Z. WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB...LOW CIGS/FOG SHOULD
STAY EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS...HOWEVER EACH MODEL RUN SEEMS TO
ADVANCE FOG POTENTIAL WESTWARD SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGH THE EARLY AM HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME SCT-BKN200
CIRRUS THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 12-24 KTS AT ALL 3 TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. -KT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO PUT OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KIOWA
COUNTY...AND TO EXPAND AREAS OF FOG WESTWARD ACROSS CROWLEY AND
OTERO COUNTIES. LATEST SFC OBS ALREADY SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CO. WITH FAIRLY STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...EXPECT SOME LOWER 50 DEW POINTS TO MAKE
IT INTO KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTY TOWARDS MORNING. LATEST HRRR
LOOKS A BIT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK AS
FAR WESTWARD AS EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES...AND HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HRRR AND DRIER NAM12 FOR THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...APPEARS KIOWA COUNTY MAY HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING
SOME DENSE FOG FORMATION...THUS PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE PUT OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR PROWERS COUNTY AS WELL...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THIS ZONE...WITH RUC13 KEEPING RICHER MOISTURE FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.
SO WILL LEAVE THIS ZONE OUT FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. -KT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012/

SHORT TERM...

(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. CURRENTLY A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FRONT IS A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT AND A FEW BRIEF GUSTS OF WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
EXCEEDED OR TIED RECORDS AT COLORADO SPRINGS AND PUEBLO SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL
LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. MODELS
TRYING TO DEVELOP FOG OUT ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDE. THINK AREAS
UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER STAND THE BEST
CHANCE AT SEEING FOG FOR TONIGHT.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. HUMIDITIES
WILL BE LOW GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLIES AND DRY AIR MIXING
DOWN. WINDS LOOK MARGINAL...WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING GUSTS 20 TO 25
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAUTION IS ADVISED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD HIGHS ONCE AGAIN FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODELS HINTING AT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES...BUT CURRENTLY THINK
THIS WILL ONLY AMOUNT TO CUMULUS BUILD UPS IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
LACK OF MOISTURE. 88

LONG TERM...

(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

.CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...

MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PD IS FIRE WX CONCERNS ON MONDAY.

AS HAS BEEN FCSTD BY THE SIMULATIONS FOR DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
VERY WINDY WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO OUR NORTH DURING
PRIME HEATING. LAPSE RATED OF 8.5 TO 9.5C/KM AND 50 KNOT 700 MB
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY GUST WINDS. WITH THE STRONG
WINDS...BLOWING DUST WILL BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE
SUSTAINED DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH BACA COUNTY RECEIVED ALMOST AN
INCH OF RAIN THE OTHER DAY...I AM CONFIDENT THAT THIS AREA WILL DRY
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY (1 HOUR FUELS...I.E., GRASSES) BY THE TIME MONDAY
ROLLS AROUND.

THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO KS RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE
DAY...SO I DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE BORDER ATTM.

IN THE MTNS...SHORT WAVE MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH ALONG WITH STRONG LIFT
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTDVD...MAINLY OVER THE C
MTNS.

ONCE THIS TROUGH GOES BY...GENERAL WEAK WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. WX DURING THIS PD WILL BE SEASONAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

A WEAK TROUGH AT MID LVLS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. NO
SENSIBLE WX WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH IT. TEMPS WILL COOL A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT KCOS...KPUB OR KALS THROUGH THE
END OF THE MONTH. TO DATE...AT KPUB WE HAVE RECEIVED 0.11
INCHES...OUR NORMAL IS 0.93. AT KCOS...WE HAVE RECEIVED 0.06...THE
NORMAL IS 1.00 INCHES. AT KALS WE RECEIVED 0.10...NORMAL IS 0.53.
WITHOUT SAYING...WE NEED PRECIP. /34

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 88

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ221-222-226>237.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ095-096.

31/44

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1059 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL PASS
TO THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT...THEN HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THEN SLIDE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
850 WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO OUR NORTH...SO STEADY PRECIPITATION
HAS COME TO AN END...LATEST GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY
NEEDING POPS FOR ISOLD-SCT -SHRA FOR REMAINDER OF DAY...AND
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

EVEN WITH 850 WARM FRONT TO OUR N...MODEL AND 12Z KOKX AND KALY
SUGGEST MIXING TO AT MOST 950 HPA...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG ENE
FLOW KEEPING A MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS
DOWNWARD BASED ON BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WITH LAV AND MET GUIDANCE AS WELL AS NAM AND HRRR 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. THIS LOWERED HIGHS ABOUT 1 CATEGORY AWAY FROM THE
COAST. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN THIS MIGHT END UP BEING TO
WARM...AND ULTIMATELY WE WILL END UP TOPPING OUT FROM THE UPPER
40S ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO LOWER 50S COASTAL/NYC METRO
ZONES...BUT NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE THAT CHANGE YET. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD THOUGH...WILL MAKE THAT CHANGE IN THE NEXT
UPDATE WHICH WILL GO OUT BY ABOUT 1230 THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS NORTH INTO A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE FROM EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT TO
THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER
LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...TRACKS EAST
THROUGH QUEBEC INTO SE CANADA TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...PUSHING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND COASTAL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A STRONG COASTAL
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MON AFTERNOON...AND THEN
GRADUALLY TRACK UP THE COAST.

DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND DEPARTING LOW...BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY MILD AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.

THEN CHILLY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH MODERATELY STRONG NW WINDS (20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH) PROVIDING STRONG CAA. WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ISOLATED. SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
LIKELY AS AS THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE REGION AS WELL. TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE MORNING...AND
THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND CAA. HIGH
TEMPS FORECAST IS TRICKY DUE TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
FRONT...BUT TEMPS LIKELY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY BUT CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE STRONG CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY. RIDGING
SURFACE/ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT.

NOTE FOR AGRICULTURAL AND HORTICULTURAL CONCERNS...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES...MID TO UPPER 20S COAST...AND AROUND FREEZING IN THE NYC/NJ
METRO MON NIGHT. SUB- FREEZING TEMPS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
OUTSIDE OF URBAN CENTERS IF RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
RIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY MITIGATE THIS SOMEWHAT.

MORE ROBUST WAA SHOULD TAKE PLACE TUE NIGHT-WED IN RETURN S-SW
FLOW AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE E-SE AND A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH APPROACHES...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE AVG TEMPS ON THU/FRI AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN...WITH
50S TO NEAR 60. AFTER THIS HIGH MOVES EAST... ANOTHER WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS HAVE BEEN MVFR WITH VSBYS STAYING VFR. OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AS WELL AS SOME WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS BUT DO NOT THINK THESE WILL OCCUR OFTEN
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR MOST SITES. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE WITH THE STEADY EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS.

WINDS BACK TO MORE NE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN
10 KTS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TERMINALS FOR AT
LEAST A PART OF THE EVENING. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT
AND A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR WITH VFR
RETURNING. NW WINDS INCREASE 10-15 KT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NW-N FLOW. DIMINISHING WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUSTY SW FLOW IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW FLOW.

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

MARGINAL SCA ENE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. 5 TO 6 FT OCEAN SEAS MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW
SCA TONIGHT.

THEN STRONG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS...WITH MARGINAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED MON MORNING THROUGH MON NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL...AND SCA ELSEWHERE
DURING THIS TIME.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH SCA AND THEN BELOW ON TUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND AGAIN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LACK OF RAINFALL...AND COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS(20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH) AND LOW RH VALUES (LOWER 20S PERCENT) ON
MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED THREAT FOR THE
SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES. WILL ADDRESS POTENTIAL IN HWO.

.HYDROLOGY...
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT QPF OF
1/2 INCH OR MORE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IN FACT...THE U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR CATEGORIZES SE CT AS BEING IN MODERATE DROUGHT...AND
THE REST OF THE REGION AS ABNORMALLY DRY.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV/GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS/JM
MARINE...MALOIT/NV/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NV
HYDROLOGY...NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

135 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA AND
STRENGTHEN AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THEN SLIDE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR SW IS FINALLY OVERCOMING LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE NYC METRO AREA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT
POP ACCORDINGLY...WITH ALL AREAS EVENTUALLY GETTING SOME SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY N FROM
SOUTHERN NJ SHOULD REACH THE NYC METRO AREA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.
THE INCOMING 00Z NAM APPEARS TO AGREE WITH THIS ENDING
TIME...THOUGH THE 00Z HRRR HINTS THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD
FILL IN TO THE SW AND SPREAD INTO THE AREA INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT BUT AT LEVELS TOO LOW
TO PRODUCE THUNDER. EARLIER MAV/MET MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR
LOWS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER EMERGES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUES
TO HEAD EAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING...THE ONLY OTHER SOURCES OF
LIFT WILL BE A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENTERING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC
LIFT SUPPLIED BY AN UPPER JET STREAK. POPS THEREFORE NO HIGHER THAN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ONCE THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN EXITS TO THE EAST IN
THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON COULD VERY WELL END UP COMPLETELY DRY FOR
MOST SPOTS. LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM MOS FOR
HIGHS...BUT THIS STILL YIELDS HIGHS WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THE LOW BEGINS TO HEAD NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR US EARLY IN THE EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. DRY THEN FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE STORM CENTER HEADING NE FARTHER OUT TO SEA...A
COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH EARLY ON. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
DURING ITS PASSAGE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AGAIN
NO RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH IT...JUST SOME CU BUILDUP AT BEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING US A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AS THE DAY WEARS ON. BUT AT THE
SAME TIME...STRONG DOWNSLOPING COULD OFFSET THIS A LITTLE. IT MIGHT
NOT BE THE TYPICAL DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN...AND HIGHS COULD BE
ACHIEVED NEAR NOONTIME INSTEAD OF MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TOOK A BLEND
OF THE NAM/MAV MOS FOR HIGHS...WHICH ENDS UP A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING...WITH THE AREA CAUGHT BETWEEN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SE
OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND A STRONG HIGH BUILDING S FROM HUDSON BAY.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL PRODUCE COLD AND
BRISK CONDITIONS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH
WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE VS NAM FOR LOWS MON NIGHT...BUT EVEN SO MON
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH LOWS ABOVE FREEZING ONLY IN
NYC...BELOW 30 OUTSIDE THE NYC METRO AREA...AND POSSIBLY CLOSING IN
ON 20 IN SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF
VERY LATE AT NIGHT. WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL ALSO DROP
INTO THE TEENS LATE MON NIGHT.

DESPITE THE COLD OF MON NIGHT...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD ACTUALLY
HELP KEEP HIGHS NEAR AVG ON TUE. FULL MIXING OF 875 MB TEMPS NEAR
-2C PLUS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S IN NYC
AND COASTAL SECTIONS...AND UPPER 40S INLAND. MORE ROBUST WAA SHOULD
TAKE PLACE TUE NIGHT-WED IN RETURN S-SW FLOW AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO
THE E-SE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY WED
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH APPROACHES...THEN
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVG TEMPS ON THU/FRI AS ANOTHER
HIGH BUILDS IN...WITH 50S TO NEAR 60. AFTER THIS HIGH MOVES EAST...
ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

NOTE FOR AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS...TEMPS WILL FALL TO AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING JUST OUTSIDE OF NYC...AND INTO THE 20S OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN
LONG ISLAND. SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT OUTSIDE
OF URBAN CENTERS IF RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH MAY
MITIGATE THIS SOMEWHAT.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. OCNL IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME BETWEEN
10-14Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

LIGHT E-NE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR...EXCEPT FOR KGON...IS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN AT KGON...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 00Z MONDAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN A SHIFT IN WINDS TO A NW FLOW...HELPING TO DRY THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE...MAINLY AT
KHPN/KISP/KBDR/KGON.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NW-N FLOW. DIMINISHING WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUSTY SW FLOW IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW FLOW.

.MARINE...
E FLOW AROUND 15 KT WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...AND OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
VERY CLOSE TO REACHING 5 FT. ANY GUSTS TO 25 KT AT THE SAME TIME
WOULD BE OCCASIONAL. HAVE THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA.
WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE TO HIGH GIVEN THE WIND FORECAST AND LACK OF
A SIGNIFICANT SWELL LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE KEPT
SEAS BELOW 5 FT. WINDS WILL AT LEAST DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING.

FOR MON/MON NIGHT...AT LEAST AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
MORNING...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVING IN. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF GALES IN
THE HWO.

CONDS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH SCA AND THEN BELOW ON TUE.
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED
AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
AND AGAIN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXIST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS MID ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH AND THEN EAST
OF THE AREA. THERE IS ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL AT BEST FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING...AS 1 1/2 TO 2 FT POSITIVE DEPARTURES ARE NEEDED
TO REACH THESE THRESHOLDS. BASED ON CURRENT DEPARTURES AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

902 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS AFFECTING WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. 12Z MIAMI
SOUNDINGS SHOWS DECENT INSTABILITY WITH RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 750 AND 600 MB AND ONLY WEAK CAPPING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT MOST LIKELY DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. SHORT RANGE MODELS
SHOW AREA OF PRECIP OVER WESTERN AREAS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND
TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES,
WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

FOR FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING, INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT
OVER COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES TO ACC0UNT FOR CURRENT AREA OF
PRECIP WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING MID 80S,
THEREFORE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE,
LITTLE CHANGE AS ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD ENABLE TEMPS TO REACH
FORECAST VALUE OF MID 80S METRO AREAS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE,
SLIGHTLY COOLER PALM BEACHES WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER.
POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS LOOK GOOD.

OVER THE LOCAL WATERS, CURRENT WINDS AND SEAS LOOK GOOD AND NO
CHANGES ANTICIPATED. /MOLLEDA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012/

AVIATION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. SW FLOW EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. CURRENT GUIDANCE DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS THEREFORE...KEPT VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN AT
25/13-14Z...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY 26/00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012/

DISCUSSION...
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
MOVING TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE TO THE EAST TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THIS
EVENING.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DESTABILIZING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -12C...LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND EVEN SLIGHT DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED
TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO EXPANDED THE THUNDERSTORM AREA TO MOST OF THE REGION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION BY 18Z. THIS FOLLOWS WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST FROM
NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...MOIST ADIABATIC ABOVE
700-800MB...SO LEFT MENTION OF HAIL OUT.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE LAKE REGION
AROUND 18Z WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING THERE BY 21Z. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AROUND 00Z...WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH ENDING BY EARLY EVENING. A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT TO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A MOISTURE AND WIND SURGE TO THE
REGION. SO BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. MODELS THEN SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO LEFT THE 10 POPS WITH MENTION OF
PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SO LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND LOWS AROUND 60 TO AROUND 70.

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SW FLOW EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. CURRENT GUIDANCE DID NOT CHANGE
MUCH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS THEREFORE...KEPT VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS TO
BEGIN AT 25/16Z...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY 26/00Z.

MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY
LATE MONDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. CURRENT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WITH SCEC AND POSSIBLY A SHORT PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES
DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 63 81 66 / 50 10 0 -
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 66 83 68 / 40 20 0 -
MIAMI 87 65 83 66 / 40 20 0 -
NAPLES 79 64 83 63 / 50 10 0 -

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION/FIRE/RADAR...71/JE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

721 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 63 81 66 / 50 10 0 -
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 66 83 68 / 40 20 0 -
MIAMI 85 65 83 66 / 40 20 0 -
NAPLES 82 64 83 63 / 30 10 0 -

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...59/RM
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

402 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
MOVING TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE TO THE EAST TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THIS
EVENING.

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SW FLOW EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. CURRENT GUIDANCE DID NOT CHANGE
MUCH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS THEREFORE...KEPT VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS TO
BEGIN AT 25/16Z...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY 26/00Z.

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY
LATE MONDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. CURRENT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WITH SCEC AND POSSIBLY A SHORT PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES
DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 63 81 66 / 50 10 0 -
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 66 83 68 / 40 20 0 -
MIAMI 85 65 83 66 / 40 20 0 -
NAPLES 82 64 83 63 / 30 10 0 -

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR...17/ERA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

936 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
27/01Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT
IS ON TARGET TO CROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT--REACHING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY SUNRISE. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH LITTLE FAN FAIR...BUT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LITTLE STRATOCUMULUS AND A NOTICEABLE DROP IN
DEWPOINTS. LATE EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED...SO NUDGED LOWS DOWN IN A FEW
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM SAVANNAH SOUTH TO
DARIEN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 FOR THE ZONES BORDERING THE
CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TO THE UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN NOTICEABLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DESCENDING FRONT WILL CREATE A DECENT
NORTH/SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
BE SUPPRESSED AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA...WHILE RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RESULTING WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SUPPORTING
MORE SEASONAL LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DESCEND
SOUTHWARD AND SLIP OFF THE COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE WARMER FLOW AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PULLING A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING A DECENT TAP
INTO DEEPER MOISTURE. RAIN POTENTIAL THUS APPEARS QUITE LIMITED ON
THURSDAY AND PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT. SINCE THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITHIN SOME PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES.
AFTER A WARM-UP MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AGAIN BY A
FEW DEGREES.

RIGHT NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. AN AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT COMES ASHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID WEEK WILL WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND APPROACH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TIMING AND DETAILS
ARE TOO TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...BUT WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCHS/KSAV. COLD FRONT TIMED TO CROSS
KCHS AROUND 07Z AND KSAV AROUND 10Z. GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AFTER
SUNRISE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE FACTOR.

.MARINE...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE FASTER RUC SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL
TIMING OVERNIGHT. 27/01Z OBSERVATIONS SHOW IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
RAISED NOTED ACROSS THE TIDEWATER AND OUTER BANKS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN IMPRESSIVE POST FRONTAL WIND
SURGE WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST. THE LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST
THE FRONT WILL REACH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS AROUND 2
AM AND WILL SURGE STEADILY SOUTH--REACHING THE ALTAMAHA SOUND BY
SUNRISE. EXPECT WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...TRENDING LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES AND LOOK WELL PLACED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH NOON ON
TUESDAY...WHILE MAINTAINING ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A BETTER FETCH OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY-LEVEL SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT
WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DESCENDS TOWARD
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO
RISE ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KCLX RADAR WILL REMAIN OFFLINE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CLEANING AND PAINTING OF THE RADOME.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ354.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

721 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND SHIFT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING
UPDATE.

EXPECT A CLEAR AND TRANQUIL EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND NE WINDS WILL SURGE
PERHAPS RESULTING IN SOME UNEVEN TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THE FRONT
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT MOSTLY CLEAR FORECASTS ARE REASONABLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW OF THE COOLEST INLAND LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S BRIEFLY AROUND DAYBREAK. AT THE COAST...TEMPERATURES
COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60F THIS EVENING...THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY RISE A FEW DEGREES AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPS LATE.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCHS/KSAV. COLD FRONT TIMED TO CROSS
KCHS AROUND 07Z AND KSAV AROUND 10Z. GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AFTER
SUNRISE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE FACTOR.

.MARINE...
INCOMING RUC DATA SUGGESTS THE FRONT AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SURGE
WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE START TIMES OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THESE ZONES
GIVEN THESE TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE TONIGHT
PERIOD.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ354.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

139 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE
AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RAIN
SHOULD END BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE AREA.
MOSTLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE EAST BUT A 20
PERCENT CHANCE IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT EXCEPT MAYBE 10 PERCENT IN THE CSRA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY
SLOT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BUT THE NAM AND RUC MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LOW BRINGING MOISTURE
BACK IN ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
DECIDED GO INCLUDE A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS NORTH
PART IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. AS
MENTIONED...WILL HAVE ONLY 10 PERCENT POP CSRA. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES LOOK OK THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN
COLD POOL OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL BE CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT TEMPS SLIGHTLY. EVEN
SO...DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD CORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES EAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. DRYING WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...NOT REALLY EXPECTING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
70S DURING THE DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE REAL DIFFERENCE WILL BE
IN THE DRIER DEWPOINTS THAT WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS CLOSE
TO OUR NORTH PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPSTATE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STILL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ONLY LOW POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH THAT
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP VFR CEILINGS ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AGS AND DNL WHERE
CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. COLD AIR IN THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON GIVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IS BEST OVER KCAE...KCUB AND KOGB IN THE
BETTER MOISTURE. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR FOG AT KCAE...KCUB AND KOBG
THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY AIR PATCH CROSSES THE AREA...
ALLOWING SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING PLUS MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP REDUCE THE CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UNRESTRICTED FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

926 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

UPDATE HAS BEEN COMPLETED. WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. WITH A FEW SPOTS EXPECTED TO GUST CLOSE TO 40 TO 45 MPH FOR
A BRIEF TIME...DO NOT EXPECT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED.
SO ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE INCREASED JUST ENOUGH THAT RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT BEING REACHED ANY MORE. SO RED FLAG
WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

WITH THE MAIN LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...HAVE REMOVED THE REMAINING THUNDERSTORM AREA. COLD FRONT
HAS BEGUN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY WITH BRIEF BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND IT. ADJUSTED WINDS ACCORDING TO REALITY AND LATEST RUC
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THIS. RUC ALSO CLOSE ON DEWPOINTS AND ADJUSTED
WITH IT AS WELL. WITH EXPECTED WINDS...CURRENT MINS LOOK FINE AT
THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LATE
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AND THE DRY
LINE WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. BY MID MORNING...THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...BUT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA AWAY FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. THE WINDOW FOR GUSTS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE LESS THAN THREE HOURS IN THE
AFTERNOON...SO THE NEED FOR A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 70S...NEAR 80 FROM HILL CITY TO
TRIBUNE. MAY SEE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH BUT WILL KEEP IT IN FOR CONSISTENCY
SAKE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE GFS ROLLS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF IS FAR LESS AMPLIFIED AT BEST. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S SUNDAY WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MONDAY. CANT
RULE OUT SOME PRECIP BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IT WAS DECIDED TO
KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 503 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
SWITCH THE WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
UNTIL PASSAGE THEN WILL RELAX. AT KMCK...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THIS TERMINAL RESIDES IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE MID/HIGH AND WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
STATE LINE AS A DRYLINE SLOWLY ADVANCES TO THE EAST TODAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A SUDDEN SHIFT IN THE WINDS AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING
HUMIDITIES DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IF WINDS DO OCCUR...WILL
LIKELY BE A MUCH SMALLER MAGNITUDE OF EVENT THAN TODAY AND CHOSE
TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO AVOID CONFUSION ABOUT TODAYS
WARNING.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM....007
AVIATION...BAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

623 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 455 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

HAVE TRIMMED POPS FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO LAPS/SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG BUT CINH AROUND NEGATIVE 200 TO 400 J/KG. DEWPOINTS
ARE MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. FOLLOWED THE LATEST HRRR FOR GUIDANCE. HAVE DOUBTS ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL FORM THIS EVENING AND THE INSTABILITY THAT
IS CURRENTLY PRESENT WILL ALL GO TO MID LEVEL CLOUD FORMATION.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE
PERIOD.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA, POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS KANSAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THIS EVENING, THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AN
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS INCREASING FORCING NEAR THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO POOL SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...INCLUDING A MODEST +70KT JET...WILL
SKIRT JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, THE DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS, THERE IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY (LOW CAPE) DUE TO
THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, NOT TO MENTION A
POSSIBLE CAPPING ISSUE. STILL, CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT POPS SEEM REASONABLE HERE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AS THE
APPROACHING LEE SIDE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS
MAINLY DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S(F) TO LOW 50S(F). A FEW 40S(F)
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GO NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TUESDAY, A SMALL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO WORK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS DURING THE DAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS(C). SHOULD SEE HIGHS UP
INTO THE 70S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH LOWER 80S(F) POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 5
BEFORE STARTING TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN STATES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF STAFFORD TO MEDICINE
LODGE AND COLDWATER. THE MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A PRECIPITATION
SIGNAL ALONG THE FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S
AROUND MEDICINE LODGE, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE NEARLY
UNCAPPED BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MODERATE CAPE VALUES FORECAST.
AN EIGHTY KNOT JET WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FARTHER NORTHWEST IT APPEARS
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED TO PREVENT ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING INTO THE AREA WE COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCES AROUND HIGHWAY
281 AND EAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE POPS IN THE
PRATT-MEDICINE LODGE-COLDWATER AREAS.

THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

TOWARD DAY 7 THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS PRETTY LOW. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

THE KDDC RAOB THAT WAS JUST RELEASED SHOWS A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO
ABOUT 750 HPA. ABOVE 750 HPA, THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS CAPPED
(INVERSION) AND DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY. AS A RESULT, HAVE MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT DEVELOP THIS EVENING. ANY
CAPE THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE UPDATE SECTION IS GOING TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS/VIRGA. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAVERSING
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL THE TERMINALS BY MID MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE RAPIDLY TOWARDS 03Z AND THEN BECOME NORTHERLY WITH THE FROPA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 77 49 81 / 20 0 10 10
GCK 46 75 45 80 / 20 0 10 10
EHA 45 75 43 80 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 50 77 45 81 / 20 0 0 10
HYS 50 75 46 80 / 10 0 10 10
P28 57 80 56 82 / 0 10 20 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>080-084>089.

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM....GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

342 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012

MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. PRIMARY QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER FOG WILL
REFORM ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING ANYTHING BUT A
CONSENSUS WITH RUC MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT EVENING
SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SITUATION CLOSELY.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY WITH A
MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION ON
THAT POTENTIAL. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MONDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
BUT DOES NOT REALLY MIX EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER UNTIL LATE MONDAY
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD.

IN ADDITION TO FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS...ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STRONGEST DYNAMIC REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE OBSERVED
FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF AN UPDRAFT CAN DEVELOP AND BE SUSTAINED. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN
ANTICIPATED 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AS PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012

DRY CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUATION OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS
A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
CONTINUED FOCUS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S CONTINUING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/GEFS MEAN AND EC
DEPICTING STARKLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP
A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE THE
EC SUPPORTS A RIDGE OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA AND HOLDS THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012

KGLD...FOG AND BR ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING. BY 19Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
KMCK...WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. CURRENT
OBS SHOW INCREASING SURFACE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND
EXPECT KMCK TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT HOUR. BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS A
CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS COVER COVER
DECREASES...BECOMING LIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE THREE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY. LEFT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
INTACT FOR THE FIRST TIER OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE WILL MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON. OPTED TO CANCEL THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST AS
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW THAT CRITERIA WOULD BE MET IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012

STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RECORDS ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION ON MONDAY. ALSO STILL WELL ON TRACK FOR THE WARMEST
MARCH ON RECORD AT GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK. HERE ARE
THE LATEST FIGURES THROUGH MARCH 24.

GOODLAND - 48.8 DEGREES SET IN 1907 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 48.6
BURLINGTON - 47.7 DEGREES SET IN 1986 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 47.1
MCCOOK - 48.3 DEGREES SET IN 2007 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 49.9
HILL CITY - 54.3 DEGREES SET IN 1910 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 51.1

WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT
GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK WILL SEE THE WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD. IT REMAINS TO BE SEE IF HILL CITY WILL BREAK THE RECORD AS
WELL.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ252>254.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ079.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

UPDATE...PMM
SHORT TERM...PMM/FOLTZ
LONG TERM....FOLTZ
AVIATION...PMM
FIRE WEATHER...PMM/FOLTZ
CLIMATE...FOLTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1252 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION AND NEAR TERM SECTION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR 50 DEGREES FOG MAY FORM TOWARDS
SUNRISE. THE HRRR AND NAM DEPICT DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TWO
WESTERN ROWS OF COUNTIES BY 08Z WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
FORMING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND IF THEY MOVE INTO KANSAS IT MAY
HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS, I HAVE KEPT THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED IN THE VERY SHORT TERM
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS
AFTERNOON AND WERE HEADED TOWARD THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS REMAINS FOCUSED DIURNALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING
DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS AND HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AIR, ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL OVERNIGHT UNDER A VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
RUC AND NAM BOTH INDICATE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT, AND ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT AT ALL ON THE PLACEMENT. HOWEVER THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WHERE THE
WINDS GO LIGHT IN THE ZONE OF SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE PROBABLY
AFTER 8Z.

DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT TO LOWER VALUES IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. THE NAM INDICATED THE REAL DRYLINE TO BE
POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST IN NE NEW MEXICO WHERE IT WANTS
TO DEVELOP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS IT IS
RETREATING. HAVING SAID THAT, THE SURFACE POSITIVE BUOYANT ENERGY IS
A RESPECTABLE 1000-2000 J/KG FROM A DIGHTON TO MEADE CORRIDOR AS
MODELED BY THE NAM. HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT REMAINS DRY ON
SUNDAY. THE WARM NOSE ON THE 21 UTC NAM SOUNDING SUGGESTS PARCELS
WOULD NEED TO BE LIFTED FROM ABOVE 800 MB WHICH DOESN`T APPEAR
PLAUSIBLE WITH SUCH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DRY AIR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORK EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY. A DRY LINE WILL START ADVANCING WEST EARLY IN THE DAY
MONDAY, AND SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR WEST
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE DRY LINE. FOR NOW, GRIDS WILL HAVE
25-35KTS G40KTS IN MY WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA, AND 15-25KTS G30KTS IN
THE EASTERN CWA. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ONE OR TWO MORE SHIFTS BEFORE ISSUING
THE NPW PRODUCT. STORMS MAY FIRE IN THE LATE DAY IN OUR WEST NEAR
THE DRY LINE, BUT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE TO OUR NORTH.
THE 20 POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR THIS SITUATION, UNLESS LATER MODEL
RUNS SHOW SOMETHING DIFFERENT. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH, THE GFS BACKED
OFF ON THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION FAR
TO OUR NORTH.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH CROSSING JUST TO OUR NORTH. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP INTO OUR NORTHWEST SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER BY TUESDAY MORNING. THEN, THE FRONT APPEARS TO
DISSIPATE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE STARTING TO
ADVANCE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. SINCE THAT FRONT IS
PLOWING THROUGH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, 20 PERCENT POPS WILL
START IN THE WEST LATE MONDAY AND TRANSFER TO THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SEEMS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL MONDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH 20 POPS DO NOT PLAN TO
MENTION SEVERE STORMS IN THE GRIDS. WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO AT LEAST
MENTION SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. NO PLANS IN OUR 3 WESTERN
COUNTIES FOR POPS MONDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL DEPEND
STRONGLY ON THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT AND POSITION, AND RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS HAMILTON TO THE
LOWER 50S FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO NEAR LIBERAL, AND THE MID 50S
IN THE PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY AREAS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY TUESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY, MAXING IN THE
70 DEGREE RANGE IN SCOTT CITY TO NEAR 77 DEGREES IN MEDICINE LODGE.
TUESDAY SHOULD PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES AS WELL. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION, AND MINIMUMS IN THE LOWER 40S IN
OUR NORTHWEST RANGING TO THE MID 50S IN OUR SOUTHEAST. ON
WEDNESDAY, THAT FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND MOVE
INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA. SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WHILE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. LATE WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM
IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST, DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING AND DEW POINTS
NEAR 60F DEGREES. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOW
TEMPS IN THE 50F TO 56F DEGREE RANGE, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
IN OUR EASTERN 2 COUNTIES OF THE CWA.

ON THURSDAY, THE DRY LINE WILL COME BACK INTO PLAY, MARCHING EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME OF MAX HEATING, WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DRY LINE. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS, WITH THAT CHANCE SPREADING WEST
ACROSS ALL OUR CWA BY FRIDAY. AN UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH
OF OUR CWA, AND MAY FIRE OFF A FEW STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY ARE IN THE MID 70S, WITH MIN TEMPS FROM
46F TO 54F DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT, AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND LEE
TROUGHING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES MAY FORM ACROSS THE GARDEN CITY
AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS. AS FOR NOW I WENT WITH 5SM AT DDC AND
AROUND 1SM AT GCK. VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF
GARDEN CITY AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE TAFS IF THIS MOVES FARTHER EAST
THAN ANTICIPATED. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD ERODE BY 14Z.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE IN THE MORNING AS LEE
TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AND THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 82 52 74 / 0 20 20 0
GCK 56 83 48 73 / 0 20 20 0
EHA 55 85 45 73 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 56 83 48 75 / 0 20 20 0
HYS 57 82 51 73 / 0 10 20 0
P28 57 82 56 76 / 0 10 20 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-043>045-061>063-074-075-084-085.

UPDATE...HOVORKA 42
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM....BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA 42

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1140 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

MADE A FEW QUICK UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN AREAS WHERE
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. THESE PERSISTENT HIGH
CLOUDS BRING SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA...BUT
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH TDS AROUND 50 AND
CONFLUENT ZONE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FOG POTENTIAL LATER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 843 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE COVERAGE
OF THE FOG OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL 15Z SUNDAY
MORNING. 00Z DDC AND LBF SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED IN VALUE AND DEPTH FROM 24 HOURS AGO. MOST MODEL OUTPUT IS
UNDERDOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE RUC AND HRRR HAVE
CAUGHT ONTO THIS HIGHER MOISTURE AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING AND/OR INCREASING NOT ONLY THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG BUT THE
EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG. THE 00Z NAM HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ON AS
WELL. ALL THREE MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE
DENSE FOG AREA.

SO HAD FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING THE ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA IN QUESTION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN TWEAK THIS FURTHER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALSO RAISED THE MINS
ACCORDINGLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF BASED ON
REALITY/LATEST RUC/HRRR. RUC/HRRR WERE DOING WELL ON
DEWPOINTS/WINDS AND USED THEM FOR THE UPDATE AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

500 MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 40S MOST AREAS TONIGHT...AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE LOW
AFTER 09Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD/DENSE THAN LAST
NIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS...BUT WILL MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF FOG FORMATION BEFORE HOISTING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. WILL
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...HOWEVER...FOR FOG
POSSIBILITIES.

THERMAL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. A DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL PUSH EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON REACHING THE KANSAS BORDER BY 21Z. CONSIDERED
INTRODUCING CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST EAST OF THE DRY LINE AS
MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL BE DECENT IN THE MOIST AIR. HODOGRAPHS ALSO
SHOW GOOD SHEAR. HOWEVER...WITH THE AMOUNT OF INHIBITION AND LACK OF
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL SUPPORT...DECIDED AGAINST THUNDERSTORMS.
WEST OF THE DRY LINE...EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO 15
PERCENT IN EASTERN COLORADO MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN KIT CARSON AND
WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 15
MPH...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

NUMEROUS CONCERNS FOR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY INCLUDING POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW), STRONG FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW), AND POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FAIRLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP
INITIALLY ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER AND IS PROGGED TO MIX EASTWARD
TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 25 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE AND THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. ADDITIONALLY, STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO FEEL
CONFIDENT IN KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING. HAVING SAID
THAT...PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD
SOMETHING GET GOING. FEEL BEST SHOT FOR CONVECTION IS FURTHER EAST
THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SO NUDGED POPS THAT DIRECTION. HAVE
ALSO INSERTED BLOWING DUST MENTION FOR LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF
THE DRYLINE. DESPITE RECENT PRECIP...SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS REMAIN
HIGH. ALSO VERY CONCERNED ABOUT BLOWING DUST/SAND ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF YUMA COUNTY WHERE A VERY LARGE BURN SCAR FROM A FIRE
LAST SUNDAY WILL ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...AIR MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. GIVEN LATEST PROGS...DID BUMP
MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

BROAD/FLAT RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO PASS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST INITIALLY
IN MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW BEFORE SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY IN THE 08Z TO 11Z
TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS AT KGLD ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR
TO LIFR CATEGORY AND LAST UNTIL NEAR 15Z WHEN THE FOG IS GONE AND
THE CEILINGS RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR
BY 18Z AS THE WINDS BECOME GUSTY AT 18Z. FOR KMCK THE MAIN PROBLEM
WILL BE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH NO
CEILINGS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLIER
THERE THAN AT KGLD AS WINDS ALSO BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTH.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA NEEDED FOR ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY APPEARS LIKELY ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 ON MONDAY TO THE WEST OF A FAIRLY STOUT
DRYLINE. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE LOCATIONS. RECENT PRECIP AND THE RESULTANT
GREEN UP MAY HELP MITIGATE THE THREAT BUT SUBSTANTIAL DRY FUELS
REMAIN ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION.

RH VALUES WILL BE BELOW 20 PERCENT AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
...AND THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS WOULD SHOW THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AT
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR A FEW RECORD HIGHS TO FALL ON
MONDAY BUT THE BIGGER STORY BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE
FACT THAT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SET AN ALL-TIME RECORD FOR THE
WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. CURRENT RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

GOODLAND - 48.8 DEGREES SET IN 1907 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 48.0
BURLINGTON - 47.7 DEGREES SET IN 1986 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 46.7
MCCOOK - 48.3 DEGREES SET IN 2007 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 49.5
HILL CITY - 54.3 DEGREES SET IN 1910 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 50.8

WITH FORECASTED TEMPS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST
GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK WILL SEE THE WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF HILL CITY WILL BREAK THE RECORD
AS WELL.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ252>254.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ079-080.

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM....FOLTZ
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1102 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

DID AN EARLY UPDATE. CURRENT DEWPOINTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
UPSTREAM ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT MOST MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES. THE HRRR
FOOLLOWED BY THE RUC ARE CATCHING THE DEWPOINTS THE BEST AND INCREASE
THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. USED THE HRRR
FOR THE UPDATE. LATEST RUC AND NAM OUTPUT IS NOT ONLY INCREASING
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG BUT ALSO IS DECREASING THE VISIBILITY.
SO INCREASED THE COVERAGE AND ALSO ADDED DENSE WORDING TO THE
GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS ON THE OBSERVATIONS PLUS
WAIT FOR THE 00Z SOUNDINGS TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED BUT CHANCES OF THIS ARE ON THE INCREASE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...AIR MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. GIVEN LATEST PROGS...DID BUMP
MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA NEEDED FOR ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

WITH FORECASTED TEMPS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST
GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK WILL SEE THE WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF HILL CITY WILL BREAK THE RECORD
AS WELL.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ252>254.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ079-080.

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM....FOLTZ
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

110 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.Update...
Issued at 1213 AM EDT Mar 25 2012

A quick update this evening to slide precipitation chances to the
west just a bit, skirting our extreme western fringes of the CWA.
Latest HRRR models continue to handle light showers almost perfectly
so have relied heavily on this data for latest sky and POP trends.
Also of note, temperatures are dropping off nicely where sky cover
is not (mainly eastern CWA). Therefore have lowered low temperatures
in these locations. Updated products already out.

Update issued at 753 PM EDT Mar 24 2012

Main change with this update was to translate the scattered showers
currently in central Indiana down into western sections of the LMK
CWA after dark. Adjusted cloud cover accordingly as well.

.Short Term (Tonight through Sunday night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2012

Upper low currently centered over west-central Kentucky continues to
slide southeast. The latest satellite imagery indicates the low is
starting to pick up the pace as a vort max currently rounds the
base. While this low is in the vicinity of our area, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Latest radar data illustrates
convection is starting to develop across portions of central
Kentucky. The best areal coverage for the remainder of the afternoon
will be across our south and southeastern forecast area. The low
will move over the Lake Cumberland region by the early evening
hours, which will shift the greatest precip chances eastward. Any
storm that develops this afternoon will be capable of heavy rainfall
and small hail.

Will likely see a break in shower/storm activity tonight, before
deeper moisture wrapping around the broad upper low moves back into
the eastern CWA. This will provide isolated-scattered shower chances
mainly along the I-75 corridor during the day Sunday. The best
chances appear to be during the late morning and early afternoon
hours, aided by diurnal heating. Upper level ridging and associated
subsidence will then work into the eastern CWA, cutting off shower
activity by Sunday evening. This will be the start of a dry period
for the entire region.

Temperatures made it into the upper 50s and low 60s this afternoon,
before the cloud cover increased and slowed the warming trend. Still
expect some cloud cover overnight, with low temperatures ranging
from the mid 40s to low 50s. Could see some patchy fog in the
morning if clouds clear enough, particularly where rain will fall
this afternoon. High temperatures Sunday will get into the upper 60s
across the Bluegrass region, with lower 70s expected elsewhere.
Temperatures Sunday night will be similar to tonight, with perhaps
some locations running a few degrees cooler with less cloud cover
anticipated.

.Long Term (Monday through Saturday)...
Updated at 246 PM EDT Mar 24 2012

Monday-Tuesday...

Upper-level ridging will move into the region from the west to start
the work week off. Low pressure will develop over the northern
Rockies on Monday, moving eastward across the Upper Plains into
Tuesday. With ridging over us, however, we will remain dry with
still above normal temps Mon-Tues. Our far northeastern counties may
see some northwest flow cloudiness (perhaps the reason for the
cooler temps from the NAM), so will trend temps down over those
areas for Monday. Ridge will be centered overhead Tuesday so no
large temp gradient expected. Highs Monday should range from the
upper 60s northeast to the low-mid 70s southwest. With strong warm
air advection on Tuesday, went above guidance for highs in the low
70s northeast to the upper 70s southwest. Our coolest night of
recent should be Monday night under sfc high pressure. Temps should
drop to the upper 30s/around 40 northeast to the mid 40s south.

Tuesday night-Thursday night...

By Tuesday night, the cold front from the low pressure over the
Upper Midwest will drop across the mid-Mississippi Valley region and
approach our CWA towards dawn Wednesday. This should bring a quick
shot of showers and thunderstorms to the area mainly Wednesday and
Wednesday night as the front sweeps across the CWA to the
south-southeast. By Thursday morning, this boundary should be just
south of the CWA, so have opted to keep Thursday-Thursday night dry
for now, though it is possible a shower or two could squeak north of
the TN border during the day Thursday. Although it`s still far out,
progged soundings for Wednesday show the possibility of severe
storms along the front as it passes through. Looks like
unidirectional shear and possibly 1000 J/kg of CAPE may combine to
form a strong line of thunderstorms, not overly organized, at least
at this time. Best chance for this should be around the Ohio River
Wed morn, shifting toward central/south-central KY by Wednesday
evening. With the front laying out Wednesday night, threat would
likely transition to a heavy rain event, but brief, generally
speaking. May mention strong storms in HWO. Have precip ending Wed
night from north to south.

For highs Wednesday, we should be close to 80 in some spots given
the warm start to the day (near 60 degrees). However, behind the
front, temps will drop into the low 50s Wed night, and climb into
the upper 60s/low 70s for Thursday.

Friday on...

Differences in the long term do not really arise until Friday as the
Euro keeps a hold of the ridge overhead, whereas the GFS flattens it
out more and brings a series of shortwaves across the region. Looks
like the extended model guidance though as trended upwards as far as
POPs are concerned, so will at least keep a slight chance for POPs
in on Friday/Friday night as previous forecast did. Will increase
POPs to high chance/low likely for Saturday as timing of one upper
wave in particular is caught by the GFS and Euro. Trended temps down
as a result with upper 60s north to low 70s south for Saturday.

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 111 AM EDT Mar 25 2012

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites through the
forecast period, with the exception of a brief MVFR period of BR at
LEX early this morning. Center of the upper low that has plagued the
area for several days is now moving into the Carolinas with a few
light rain showers still rotating from north to south along west
central Kentucky. These showers are expected to slide just west of
the BWG terminal and would likely not cause any category drops
anyway. Further east, mid level ceilings will likely hold off at LEX
the longest and will provide the opportunity for a brief BR scenario
between 4 and 7 am EDT.

Expect scattered to broken cu/stratocu around 2500-3500 feet by mid
to late morning with northwest winds between 5 and 10 mph. Best
chance for a stray shower would be at LEX but will leave out of
forecast for now.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Update...........13/BJS
Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........AL
Aviation.........BJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1211 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.Update...
Issued at 1213 AM EDT Mar 25 2012

Update issued at 753 PM EDT Mar 24 2012

Main change with this update was to translate the scattered showers
currently in central Indiana down into western sections of the LMK
CWA after dark. Adjusted cloud cover accordingly as well.

.Short Term (Tonight through Sunday night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2012

.Long Term (Monday through Saturday)...
Updated at 246 PM EDT Mar 24 2012

Monday-Tuesday...

Tuesday night-Thursday night...

Friday on...

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 653 PM EDT Mar 24 2012

A big upper low centered over Tennessee and Kentucky today will
continue to push to the east, moving off the North Carolina coast
Sunday afternoon.

Tonight winds will be nearly calm with scattered VFR clouds. The
HRRR has been advertising a patch of rain developing over central
Indiana this afternoon and sliding south tonight, affecting BWG
during the pre-dawn hours. The IND radar matches up pretty well
with the model projection, so will trust the model and include VCSH
at BWG between 05Z and 10Z. Also, some MVFR vsby will be possible
at BWG with light winds and dew point depressions dropping to about
zero.

SDF could see a stray shower from the Indiana activity tonight, but
even if they do it would be of minimal impact to aviation so will
not include it in the TAF. LEX should be precipitation free
overnight.

On Sunday some afternoon showers could percolate over the Blue Grass
INVOF LEX, but for the most part it should be an uneventful day with
low-end VFR stratocu cigs and northwest breezes of 5 to 10 knots.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

UpdateS..........13/BJS
Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........AL
Aviation.........13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1115 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

WAA PCPN WAS OVER NE MN AND NW WI WAS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND
MOVING STEADILY TO THE NORTHEAST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TIMING OF PCPN WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL DUE TO THE TIME TO
SATURATE THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. TEMPS OVER THE WEST NEAR IRONWOOD
AND WAKEFIELD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH MAINLY RAIN
WHILE TO THE EAST NEAR WATERSMEET AND BRUCE CROSSING...TEMPS (AIDED
BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING) MAY STILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. SO...LEFT
THE FZRA ADVY IN PLACE BUT EMPHASIZED FZRA HAZARD ONLY OVER THE ERN
PORTIONS OF GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPRAWLING UPR RDG
OVER CNTRL NAMERICA BTWN TROFS OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER
OFF THE W COAST. HUDSON BAY HI PRES UNDER THE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF
BTWN THE RDG AND ERN TROF AS WELL AS VERY DRY AIRMASS DEPICTED ON
THE 12Z INL AND GRB RAOBS /12Z H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION WAS 43C AT INL/
ARE BRINGING A TRANQUIL BUT MORE SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY TO UPR MI.
BUT MORE CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHARP WARM FNT ATTENDANT TO DVLPG
LO PRES IN THE NW HI PLAINS ARE SPREADING FM MN/NW WI TOWARD IWD.
THIS SFC LO IS ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE DESERT SW. THE WARM FNT SEPARATES VERY WARM
AIRMASS IN THE SRN PLAINS WITH 12Z H85 TEMP AS HI AS 20C AT DODGE
CITY KS FM CHILLY AIRMASS IN THE GRT LKS/H85 TEMPS OF -8C AT YPL AND
APX. SOME -SHRASN ARE FALLING OVER PARTS OF MN/NW WI UNDER THE
THICKER CLDS/ SHARPER H85-7 FGEN AS 12Z MPX RAOB SHOWS A SATURATED
LYR FM H85-5. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LTG STRIKES UNDER THIS BAND OF
SHRA TODAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO TUE ARE MIXED PCPN/ICING POTENTIAL/
GOING FZRA ADVY ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WARM FNT...THEN SHRA CHCS ON
TUE WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOT.

TNGT...AS HI PRES/COLD DRY AIRMASS IN ONTARIO THIS AFTN RETREAT INTO
QUEBEC AND SHRTWV IN THE DESERT SW SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS
TNGT IN RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW...ATTENDANT WARM FNT/CLD BAND TO
THE SW WL CLOSE IN ON UPR MI. THE COMBINATION OF VIGOROUS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/MID LVL MOISTENING ACCOMPANYING STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW/H925
WINDS INCRSG TO 50KTS...INCRSG H4-2 DVGC...AND H85-7 FGEN WL ALLOW
FOR PCPN TO BREAK OUT W-E TOWARD ERY ARND 12Z DESPITE LINGERING LLVL
DRY AIR. SINCE THE MID LVLS MOISTEN AND DYNAMICS ARRIVE BEFORE THE
LLVLS WARM/MOISTEN...FCST SDNGS INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
FZRA/SLEET WITH WBLB TEMPS AS LO AS -5C TO -7C IN THE SUB H85 LYR
UNDER THE FGEN PCPN BAND. USED A NON DIURNAL TOOL FOR TEMPS WITH MIN
READINGS RELATIVELY EARLY...THEN TEMPS RISING LATER WITH INCRSG
WIND/WAD. EVAPORATE COOLING NEAR THE SFC WL TEND TO SLOW THE RISE IN
AREAS EXPERIENCING PCPN. INCLUDED MENTION OF TS W OF THE AXIS OF MAX
FGEN WITH H8-5 LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC ENHANCED BY THE
WAD/VIGOROUS DYNAMICS.

TUE...SHRTWV/OCCLUDED LO ARE FCST TO MOVE TO JUST NW OF THUNDER BAY
ONTARIO BY 00Z WED...WITH ACCOMPANYING DRY SLOT ON ITS SE FLANK
IMPACTING THE CWA. AFT AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/WAD/H85-7 FGEN/H4-2 DVGC
EXIT THE E BY 18Z...ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA AS FCST SDNGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MID LVL DRYING/
CAPPING DVLPG AFT THE EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMICS. GUSTY WINDS
WL DVLP WITH LLVL WARMING/DESTABILIZATION MIXING OUT THE HIER
MOMENTUM ABV INITIAL SHARP INVRN. BEST CHC FOR CLRG WL BE OVER THE
FAR W FM IWD-ONTONAGON WITH DOWNSLOPING S WIND. MIXING TO H85 ON
NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS INDICATE MAX TEMPS MAY REACH 60 IN THIS AREA.
LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LK MI WL BE MUCH COOLER WITH FLOW OFF CHILLY
WATERS MAINTAINING HIER STABILITY/TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE.

AS FOR HEADLINES...SUSPECT MODEL QPF THAT WOULD INDICATE NEED FOR AN
ICE STORM WARNING IS A BIT TOO HI CONSIDERING THE STEADY EWD
MOVEMENT FCST OF THE FGEN/UPR DVGC CORE AND LINGERING LLVL DRY
AIR...SO ADVY SHOULD COVER THE FRZG PCPN POTENTIAL WITH ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED ABOUT 0.10 INCH. RECENT WARM SOILS
ALSO WL TEND TO LIMIT ICE ACCUM POTENTIAL. TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE
HEADLINE A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN INTO THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES. ALSO EXPANDED THE FZRA HEADLINE TO THE E EXCEPT
FOR MNM COUNTY...WHICH WL BE FARTHEST S OF THE SHARPER DYNAMICS AND
PROBABLY SEE LESS PCPN/ICING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

995MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AT 00Z AND
WILL SLIDE E ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ON TUES NIGHT. BULK OF INITIAL PCPN
WILL HAVE EXITED THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAIN
AREA OF PCPN THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OVER NE LK SUPERIOR...BUT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF UPPER MI THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE
PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN...DUE TO THE LOW LLVL WARM AIR SURGING N
THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS COLD AIR ARRIVES OVER
THE WEST COULD SEE THE RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW OVER THE FAR WEST NEAR
DAYBREAK. WITH THE LLVL WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FOLLOWED A
NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE ON TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...VALUES REACHING THE MID-UPPER 40S.

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED MORNING AND LEAD TO
FALLING H850 TEMPS AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NNW. WITH H850 TEMPS
FALLING FROM 1-2C AT 12Z WED TO -4 TO -6C BY 00Z THURS SHOULD SEE
LK ENHANCED SHOWERS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE PRESENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
PEAKED THE POPS OVER THE WEST DURING THAT TIME FRAME...THEN
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE DAY AS DRY AIR STARTS TO ERRODE THE PCPN
FROM THE NW.

PCPN TYPE IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WED. NAM SHOWING CLOUD TOP IS
AROUND -8 TO -10C SO PCPN START AS SNOW IN THE CLOUDS...BUT GFS IS
WARMER WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS AROUND -5C AND MAINLY RAIN. HAVE
FOLLOWED A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A THE PCPN STARTING AT
SNOW. THE LLVL WARM LAYER WILL BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE FACTOR...AS
IT WILL TRY TO MELT THE PCPN BEFORE IT HITS THE SFC. USED A
COMBINATION OF SFC TEMPS AND WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL ON WED...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING THE SNOW
FIRST AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM N TO S THROUGH
THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING BUT OVERALL PCPN SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
THEN. NON DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AGAIN ON WED...HIGHS IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTN THEN FALLING.

LK ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTN/EVENING...AS DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVE WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BUT H900 MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. WITH H900 TEMPS AROUND
-6.5C...SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT LK INSTABILITY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING
AS WINDS VEER TO THE NE ON WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. WILL TRY
TO HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...AS
THEY HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE SIMILAR FEATURE YESTERDAY. ONCE
THE LLVL MOISTURE DEPARTS OR IS MIXED OUT THURS MORNING...LOOKS TO
BE A NICE DAY ON THURS WITH THE AREA UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
COULD SEE THURS BEING VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND TRYING TO PULL DRIER AIR INTO THE
ERN CWA. WILL LOWER DEWPOINT VALUES 5-7 DEGREES FROM THE GOING
MID 20S OVER THE EAST...AS MODEL MIXED TD VALUES INDICATE SINGLE
DIGIT VALUES. MAY NEED TO DROP FURTHER IF TREND CONTINUES.

EXTENDED /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRI...TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE. 00-12Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF DIFFERING ON THE THIS SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES...SO HAVE CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WRN
CWA IN THE MORNING AND THEN EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS WHILE HEADING E IN THE AFTN.

WEAK UPPER AND SFC RIDGING PUSHES IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD
TO A DRY PERIOD...BEFORE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND.
00-12Z ECMWF/GEM/GFS/UKMET RUNS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS
WAVE...IN TIMING/LOCATION/STRENGTH. CONSENSUS IDEA IS THAT IT WILL
PUSH ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER IN THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI
NIGHT...THEN SLIDE JUST N OF LK SUPERIOR ON SAT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE AREA...BUT THE GEM IS THE FARTHEST
S AND STRONGER WITH THE LOW CENTER AND PUSHES IT ACROSS THE CWA.

THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE E ON SAT NIGHT...LEADING TO WEAK RIDGING AGAIN
ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT BEFORE NEXT WAVE SLIDES IN ON MON. OUT OF THE
THREE WAVES IN THE EXTENDED...THE MONDAY FEATURE LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST POTENT AND AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NCNTRL U.S. WILL MENTION
CHANCES ON MON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
GRADUAL WARMING HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING AS VERY DRY
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES IN ONTARIO DOMINATES. THICKER MID
CLDS AND SOME MIXED PCPN IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE
TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER CIG/VSBY. AS THE PCPN MOVES IN WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS
EXPECT SOME -FZRA...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE UPSLOPE SSE WIND WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER TEMPS LONGER. AS THE LOW LEVEL S WIND INTENSIFIES TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...LLWS IS LIKELY TO IMPACT ALL 3 TAF
SITES. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX TO THE SFC ON TUE FOLLOWING
SOME LLVL WARMING/DESTABILIZATION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BETWEEN A DEEPENING LO PRES SYSTEM MOVING E FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND RETREATING HI PRES IN SE CANADA...EXPECT INCREASING SSE WINDS TO
REACH GALE FORCE AND UP TO 40 KTS ON TUE OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FAVORED FOR STRONGER S WINDS DESPITE HI STABILITY OVER THE
RELATIVELY CHILLY LAKE WATERS.

AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUES NIGHT AND EXITS TO
THE E ON WED...WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND GUST TO 30KTS TUES
NIGHT. MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
FROM REACHING THE SFC...SO DON/T THINK WE WILL SEE ANY GALES. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN WED AFTN AND NIGHT WILL DIMINISH THE
WINDS BELOW 20KTS WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING THROUGH THURS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...BUT THE ESE WINDS
SHOULD STAY BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ004-005-010-011-084.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-
007-013-014-085.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.

GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-
249-264-265.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ250-251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC/SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

733 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO TUE ARE MIXED PCPN/ICING POTENTIAL/
GOING FZRA ADVY ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WARM FNT...THEN SHRA CHCS ON
TUE WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

EXTENDED /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
GRADUAL WARMING HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10
AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ004-005-010-011-084.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-
007-013-014-085.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.

GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-
249-264-265.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ250-251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC/SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

456 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY...AS THE H875 INVERSION
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO ERRODE. AWAY FROM THE COOLING OFF LK
SUPERIOR...THE CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT...BUT STILL HAVE A DECENT
SWATH OF CLOUDS OVER SRN ONTARIO NEAR THUNDER BAY.
MEANWHILE...1033MB SFC HIGH JUST NE OF LK WINNIPEG AND AN
ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE HAS BEEN WORKING INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR. FARTHER
SW...DEVELOPING LOW OVER WYOMING AS LED TO SOME MID LVL WAA AND
CLOUDS OVER SD AND SRN MN. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY S OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
BRINGS DRIER MID LVL AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE CLOUDS NEAR/OVER LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE
WAY THEY HAVE HUNG IN TODAY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ERN LK...FEELING
IS THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THEM HANGING AROUND FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LK INSTABILITY...AS H950-925
TEMPS ARE AROUND -9C AND LK TEMPS AROUND 3-4C. QUESTION WILL BE IF
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME WITH THIS MOISTURE AND MOST HAVE THE MOISTURE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING WITH THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH THE SFC
RIDGE. BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF THE CLOUDS OVER SRN ONTARIO AND
CNTRL/ERN LK SUPERIOR CREATES CONCERN ON IT COMPLETELY DIMINISHING.
HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUDS TO PARTLY CLOUDY NEAR LK SUPERIOR FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS TO SUBSIDENCE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND
DECREASING MOISTURE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
DIMINISH THEM. THAT BEING SAID...COULD EASILY SEE THE MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND REMAINING WITH THE LK
INSTABILITY. DID TRY TO SHOW SOME MOVEMENT TO THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AS H925 WINDS VEER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD FOCUS THE CLOUDS
OVER THE N THEN NE FAVORED LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...13-16Z RUC RUNS
TRY TO DEVELOP LK ENHANCED PCPN OVER CNTRL/ERN LK SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING AND THEN DROP IT INTO UPPER MI. THE ONLY OTHER HIRES MODEL
TO MENTION IT WAS THE REGIONAL GEM. WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
TODAY DEVELOPMENT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISING...BUT WITH CONCERNS ON AMNT
OF MOISTURE PRESENT DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT.

LOWS TONIGHT HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL DUE TO SEVERAL INFLUENCES.
NEAR LK SUPERIOR...THE CLOUDS/WIND WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO CREATES UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE STUCK WITH A
MIDDLE GROUND IN THE UPPER 20S. FARTHER INLAND...TEMPS COULD REALLY
TANK ONCE THE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IF SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. PWATS AROUND 0.25IN OR ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
LIGHT WINDS CREATES A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND EXPECT
TEMPS TO FALL NEAR 20. IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN AWAY...COULD SEE VALUES
EVEN COLDER INTO THE TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COLD SPOTS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SW OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE
SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE
DAY...AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN MONTANA/WYOMING. OTHER THAN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LK CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING UNDER H700 WAA MON AFTN OVER
MN AND NW WI...AND WILL APPROACH THE FAR WRN CWA LATE IN THE AFTN.

COOL NRLY FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MIXING DOWN NEAR THE LK
SHORE AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S. FARTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE LK
INFLUENCE...MIXING TOWARDS H850 TEMPS OF -4C WEST AND -9C EAST WILL
PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BORDER.

AS FOR DEWPOINTS...MODEL MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAND CWA. THIS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO HAVE ADJUSTED GOING
VALUES DOWN A TOUCH AWAY FROM THE MOISTENING AFFECTS OF LK
SUPERIOR. THIS LEADS TO RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH
A FEW MID-LOWER 20S OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KTS OR
LESS AND ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...EXPECT FIRE WX CONCERNS
TO BE LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
AND WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WAA AND 295K- 305K
ISENTROPIC LIFT (NOSE OF 850-800MB WINDS 50-55KT) WILL SUPPORT A BAND
OF PCPN THROUGH THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
VERY STRONG WAA IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER PUSHING WARM NOSE TEMPS TO
AROUND 5C SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY LIQUID PCPN. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND WAA OVER THE FAR WEST EXPECT THAT SFC TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ENOUGH
BY THE ONSET OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN AS RAIN. HOWEVER...OVER INTERIOR
WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
MAY LINGER AS THE PCPN MOVES IN. EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET OF
PCPN WILL ALSO DELAY LOW LEVEL WARMING. WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AFTER THE LONG WARM SPELL...THERE IS ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE IF ANY WOULD ACCUMULATE. SO...MENTIONED
BOTH RA/FZRA FOR MOST OF THE THE CWA AND HIGHLIGHTED THE HAZARD IN A
PORTION OF THE SPS. INSTABILITY FOR TSRA LOOKS MARGINAL...BUT SOME
ELEVATED CAPE INTO EDING INTO THE CWA SUPPORTS AT LEAST CONTINUED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS THE DRY SLOT SPREADS ACROSS THE ARA LATE TUE
INTO TUE EVENING...PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR
ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE MID LEVEL
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH UPPER MI SOME ADDITIONAL WRAP-AROUND LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WED MORNNG. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
WED AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE REGION.
SO...ONLY LOW END POPS FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PCPN.

THU-SUN...HIGH PRES SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA THU WITH COOL DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SHRTWV AND PCPN CHANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY EVEN THOUGH CONFIDECNE IN DETAILS IS LOW. A BLOCKING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH WITH A SFC HUDSON BAY HIGH EXTENDEDING INTO THE AREA WILL
LIMIT PCPN CHANCES TO LOWER END POPS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
KIWD/KSAW ARE BOTH ON THE EDGE OF CLEARING OUT AND HAVE TRENDED THEM
THAT DIRECTION. KCMX WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

QUESTIONS IN THE FORECAST COMES INTO WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS. MODELS SEEM TO BE UNDER DOING THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
HERE AND IN SRN CANADA AND HAVE TRENDED A TOWARDS SCATTERED
CLOUDS...WHICH MAY BE UNDER DONE. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH THEY DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE BETTER MIXING IS
LOST AND AT THIS POINT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL DIMINISH.
WITH WINDS VEERING THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE REMAINING CLOUDS WILL
PUSH BACK INTO ALL OF THE SITES IF THEY ARE PRESENT. FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW AND LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN THE VEERING WINDS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS E ON MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NRN PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST AND ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS ON TUESDAY OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

717 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND STRONG
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A POWERFUL
NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND ENTERING THE EASTERN
BORDERS OF WYOMING/COLORADO. UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE WILL CAUSE A SUB-990MB SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS IDENTIFIED A WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
FRONT AS SEEN ON THE 310K SURFACE IS MATCHING UP WILL WITH SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND BE MAINTAINED BY THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH...AND THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ALONG THIS FRONT
REMAIN STRONG...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST. COULD SEE A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL. WINDS WILL VEER AND BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TOO NEARLY H800...WITH MIXED WINDS IN THE
MID 30KT RANGE. GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS...HAVE A SECOND WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN
FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AND FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING SHOULD BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE
OF PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE MN/DAKOTA BORDER. DESPITE
THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY...BUT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE
CROSSING THE ROCKIES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ECMWF
26.12 IS THE LEAST AMPLIFIED AND THEREFORE THE FASTEST
MODEL...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS WAVE.
DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW
MORNING BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

DEEPENING SFC LOW BEGINNING TO EJECT OUT OF ERN WY AND WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...THEN NRN MN TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SE WINDS VEERING
TO THE SW LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TIMED WIND SHIFT IN TAFS WITH LAMP WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS TOMORROW
LOOK TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL MN LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WHEN AXN/STC WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OVER 40
KTS. ONLY OTHER ISSUE FOR WINDS WILL BE LLWS POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
2K FT WINDS ON THE NAM INCREASE TO OVER 50 KTS AT ABOUT THE TIME
THE FRONT ARRIVES FOR ALL BUT EAU. INCLUDED LLWS MENTION AT
MSP/RNH...AS THIS IS WHERE THE NAM BUFKIT WIND SHEAR TOOL INCREASES
MAX SHEAR TO OVER 40 KTS AROUND THE TIME OF FROPA.

FOR SHOWERS...WILL HAVE TWO CHANCES THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH RAIN REACHING THE GROUND
WITH EITHER ROUND. FIRST WILL BE HERE IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS AS
STRONG LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING LOTS OF RETURNS ON RADAR
ACROSS MN RIGHT NOW...THOUGH REPORTS ARE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN...WITH CIGS IN MANY CASES GREATER THAN 10K FT...SO WILL
JUST KEEP PRECIP MENTION AT VCSH. SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND TIMED IT IN ON THE HRRR THEN
NAM. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY ACTIVITY TO SEE THUNDER...SO
HAVE A CB MENTION IN THE CLOUD GROUP FOR THEN.

CIGS..DRY SE FLOW HAS ERODED AWAY MVFR CIGS ACROSS ALL BUT CENTRAL
MN. TOOK THE LEAD OF THE RUC FOR THE TAFS WITH CIGS...WHICH KEEPS
MVFR CIGS CONFINED TO WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY AT AND TO THE NW.
BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS PER THE RUC/SREF WOULD COME WITH THE
FROPA LATE TONIGHT...SO CONFINED MVFR MENTION TO THEN...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH THAT CIGS WILL BE THAT LOW. OTHER
THAN THAT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MVFR CIGS COMING DOWN FROM NRN
MN IN COLD AIR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AXN/STC WOULD BE AT THE
GREATEST RISK TO ENDING THIS PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS.

KMSP...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF VIRGA/SPRINKLES THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...THOUGH WITH UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING CIGS MAINLY ABOVE 10K
FT...DO NOT SEE MUCH MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...WITH ANY MVFR CIGS
LOOKING UNLIKELY UNTIL WE GET CLOSER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WAS ON THE FENCE ON WIND SHEAR DUE TO STRONG SFC
WINDS...BUT NAM/RUC SOUNDS SHOW A RATHER ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AT THE
INVERSION LEVEL TONIGHT...SO DECIDED TO ADD THE WS
MENTION...THOUGH THIS MAY BE MARGINAL GIVEN STRONG WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVELS. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN STRONG WINDS FOR
TOMORROW AND CURRENT TAF HANDLES THOSE WELL. MAY TAKE A WHILE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY SHAKING THE GUSTS.

//OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED-THU MORNING...VFR.
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT...-SHRA LIKELY WITH ISO TSRA. MVFR
CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
FRI-SAT...CHANCE -SHRA.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-LE
SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RICE-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-
BLUE EARTH-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
MORRISON-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
STEARNS-STEELE-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.

WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR PIERCE-POLK-ST.
CROIX.

JRB/MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

724 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...

MANY DIFFERENT CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INITIALLY RATHER QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH DROPPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TODAY. COLD AIR IS CURRENTLY
INVADING THE AREA WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION STRATUS WORKING ITS WAS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. STILL A QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE
IT BEFORE SUNRISE. SOME BREAKS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
ALREADY SO DO EXPECT CLEARING TO TAKE HOLD LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
SOME HIGH OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH
READINGS REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER JUST COMING ASHORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH RIDING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. APPEARS TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT
KICKER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF THE THE GULF OF ALASKA
REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT...AS MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
WILL START OUT VERY DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. LIMITED
ANY SHOWER THREAT TO MAINLY MN OVERNIGHT...AND THAT IS ALSO
DOUBTFUL. WILL START OUT AS VIRGA...AND POSSIBLY SATURATING LATER
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WHERE PLACEMENT OF
THIS LIGHT QPF WILL BE. 00Z ECMWF DROPPED IT FARTHER SOUTH AND NOW
THE 06Z NAM DROPS IT ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. WILL ADJUST
POP A BIT BUT WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE. THUNDER THREAT LOOKS
MARGINAL AT BEST INTO MONDAY. MAIN INSTABILITY AND BEST FORCING
REMAINS OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH BEST LI`S GENERALLY AROUND ZERO...SLIGHTLY BELOW BY 12Z
MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST NAM GENERATES EVEN WEAKER MID
LEVEL/ELEVATED CAPE AS THIS FGEN SURGE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
KEEP THE THUNDER THREAT ISOLATED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM THROUGH THE 50S ON MONDAY WITH CLOUD...EAST WIND.

MAIN ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PV ANOMALY MOVES MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN CENTRAL MN TUESDAY MORNING. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR VERY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLY 50KT
GUSTS WITH FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IT APPEARS COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE SWEPT INTO CENTRAL MN BY 12Z TUE AND WILL EXIT INTO WISCONSIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR IS EVIDENT WITH SOME INSTABILITY...BUT
TIMING NOT GOOD AND SYSTEM IS MOVING FAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
POPS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH JUST CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE...TRAILING
OFF OVER THE EAST ON TUESDAY. DRY SURGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF AGAIN. WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH TUESDAY...AND HUMIDITY`S
WILL DROP OFF TO PERHAPS 25 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON...RAISING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING A DRY AND COOL
TREND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME CHANCE POPS. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS AS WELL. UPPER AIR PATTERN DOES APPEAR
TO TREND TO ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
AN INCREASING RISK OF THUNDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SWATH OF LOW STRATUS HAS SMOTHERED MUCH OF MN AND WRN WI THIS MRNG
BEHIND THE CDFNT...WHICH IS NOW FROM KMKX TO THE IA/MO BORDER. THE
FNT WILL STALL OUT THEREABOUTS THRU MON. THE ISSUE FOR TDA IS HOW
LONG UNTIL THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP TO ALLOW PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE STRATUS THIS MRNG...BUT
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE SO USING ITS
DEPICTIONS...THE LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER UNTIL THE 16Z-18Z RANGE.
ALSO DIFFICULT TO TELL IF SITES THAT ARE OVC010-012 WILL DROP TO
IFR. HAVE KEPT THOSE SITES THAT HAVE DROPPED TO LOWER MVFR IN
MVFR...WHILE KEEPING THOSE REPORTING IFR IN IFR...OPTING NOT TO
HAVE BOUNCING OF CATEGORIES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIFFICULT TO
RECOVER IN A LOW-LEVEL MIXED ENVIRONMENT. AROUND NOON...ADDITIONAL
DRY AIR PLUS DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ERODE THE LOWER CLOUDS SUCH THAT
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE AFTN. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE INCOMING SYSTEM FOR MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN
AHEAD OF IT...FIRST AT HIGH LEVELS THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING WITH
TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS REACHING THE
WESTERN SITES BY 12Z...BUT WITH WEAK MODEL CONFIDENCE DUE TO
MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLAYING A KEY FACTOR...AM HESITANT TO
INCLUDE ANY PRECIP AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SLIDES
EAST.

MSP...INITIALIZED WITH BKN011 AS A WIDE SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH ENOUGH TO MOVE ACRS KMSP. DEBATED HOW LOW TO GO WITH
CLOUDS CONSIDERING ALL SITES W OF KFCM AND KANE ARE AT IFR...BUT
AFTER COLLAB WITH CWSU ZMP HAVE KEPT THINGS AT LOW MVFR LEVELS.
CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT CIGS WILL LINGER BELOW 1700FT THRU MIDDAY BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 1000FT BEFORE
BREAKING UP. LOW-LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU
MUCH OF THE AFTN BEFORE ALLOWING HIGHER CLOUDS TO BECOME DOMINANT.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LOWER TNGT THRU
TMRW AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
SHIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS. LOW PRECIP CHCS AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
OVERCOMING THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE PRECIP MAKES FOR NOT
INCLUDING PRECIP IN THIS TAF...EVEN IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD TMRW.
THOUGHT ABOUT INCLUDING CB MENTION SINCE THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF CONVECTION ALOFT...BUT WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR LATER
MODEL RUNS TO HELP CLEAR UP THE PICTURE.

OUTLOOK...
/MON-TUE/...STRONG ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHWRS/TSTMS
MAINLY MON NIGHT THRU TUE. PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
/WED/...VFR WITH CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS.
/THU/...WEAK SYSTEM TO BRING SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS...POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1219 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
COMING WEEK... ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT NO PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY. IN THE BIG PICTURE... THE LARGE SCALE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND HENCE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
THIS MEANS THAT INSTEAD OF SEEING TEMPERATURES OF 20-30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL... THEY MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONE MAJOR
CONCERN COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK... SINCE SOME OF THE CALENDAR-DEFICIENT PLANTS HAVE
DECIDED IT/S ALREADY TIME TO START GROWING. IT DOESN/T APPEAR AS
THOUGH ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK... BUT PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE READINGS DIP
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ON A COUPLE OF MORNINGS. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK... SO GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THEIR GUIDANCE... INCREASINGLY BLENDING IT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LATER PERIODS.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS MORNING/S LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE
FINALLY BURNED OFF OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
RESPONDING QUICKLY TO THE SUNSHINE... WITH READINGS CLIMBING
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS WORK
UPWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... THEN THINGS WILL COOL OFF BOTH
IN RESPONSE TO DARKNESS AND THE COLD FRONT MARCHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR
INTERNATIONAL FALLS SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH A BIG DROP IN
DEWPOINTS NOTED AS WELL. A FEW SHRA COULD DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY OF
THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE HRRR AND LOCAL
4KM WRF-ARW DO MANAGE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA INTO THE
NORTHEAST PART OF OUR AREA... BUT AT THIS POINT WOULD RATHER SEE
MORE GOING ON IN THE REAL WORLD TO INCLUDE A MENTION. AS
MENTIONED... THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH RIDGING
AND COOLER/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FOR OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. BUT... GIVEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW... THIS CHANGE WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED... WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP QUICKLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS IMPRESSIVE AS
THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT... FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. A LOOK AT ELEVATED INSTABILITY... PER 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E VALUES... SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER CREEPING IN
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT... WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE WARM SECTOR FULLY ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT AN INITIAL ARC OF
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION TO LIFT INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... THEN A SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN BEHIND THAT OWING TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND THE ARRIVAL OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION... SOME POTENT STORMS MAY DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING... AND WHAT IS LEFT OF
THOSE COULD WORK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... WORKING TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
EAST THROUGH OUR AREA SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE FRONT LOOKS
TO GET ACROSS MOST OF THE MINNESOTA CWFA BY 18Z... AND THROUGH THE
WISCONSIN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE QUITE STRONG ON TUESDAY... LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT DID YESTERDAY...
MAINLY DUE TO THE EARLIER PROGGED ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE
EARLIER FROPA WOULD ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA... WHICH
IS A NEGATIVE TOWARD THE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES. SO... AT
THIS POINT... THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA.
BUT... IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY... SO ANY CHANGES IN THE TIMING
AND POSITION OF FEATURES COULD STILL CHANGE THINGS A BIT... SO IT
IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF BELOW ZERO
ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO THE AREA FOR A TIME ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGE WILL BE SHORTLIVED ONCE
AGAIN... WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER AIR WORKING BACK INTO THE
REGION BY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWER CHANCES
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH.

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WE`VE GONE BACK AND FORTH TONIGHT ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE
MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE CLOUDS HAD SLOWED THIS EVENING...BUT NOW
THE PUSH OF COLD AIR SEEMS TO BE ADVANCING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT
LATE IN THE MORNING. IN TERMS OF WINDS...AFTER SOME INITIAL GUSTS
TONIGHT IN THE 10-20KT RANGE...WIND WILL REMAIN N-NE TODAY AT
5-10KTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD.

KMSP...BASED ON THE LATEST CLOUD TREND...THE MVFR CEILINGS WOULD
ARRIVE RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BEFORE 12Z IF THE CURRENT RATE HOLDS.
REINTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE STRATUS CLOUDS BACK INTO THE
TAF. SHOULDN`T LAST ALL DAY EVEN IF IT MAKES TO THE AIRPORT THIS
MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SHOWERS SNEAK IN HERE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT LEFT THE TAF DRY FOR NOW.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

TRH/CLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

810 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DID AN UPDATE AT ABOUT 6PM TO LOWER THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MAINLY FOR LATE TONIGHT. HRRR IS BECOMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE NAM WITH MOISTURE PATTERNS. REST OF FORECAST WAS LEFT
UNTOUCHED. JAMBA

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN WYOMING EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. INVERTED
TROF EXTENDING NORTH FROM THIS LOW...ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST...SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY HAS REMAINED FAIRLY HIGH TODAY AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL KEEP DRY AIRMASS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW FROM REACHING
INTO THE CWA. THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THIS EVENING.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE LOW. MODELS INDICATING 40-50KTS AT 850MB AND FAIRLY HIGH LAPSE
RATES LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER
COLD AIR ADVECTION FAIRLY WEAK AND TIMING NOT OPTIMAL FOR BEST
MIXING ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION DRAG...SHOULD KEEP FROM MEETING
FULL MIXING POTENTIAL. EXPECT IT COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.
THEREFORE WILL CANCEL WATCH...BUT ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS THAT
CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET EASILY.

AS LOW LIFTS EASTWARD COLD AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH SNOW POTENTIAL WITH
DEWPOINT LINGERING IN THE LOW 30S...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW AROUND SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE STATE...AND SURFACE GRADIENT
WEAKENS FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT
TROF BEGINS TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BE INCREASING AS WARM FRONT DEVELOPS IN
CENTRAL MONTANA. EBERT

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT AT 00Z THU OR
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH IS THE START OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE DAKOTA/S AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS IS PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR EASTERN
MONTANA. EACH MODEL PUSHES A GOOD PIECE OF ENERGY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH SUPPORTS A MENTION OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BY THURSDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
TAKING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT AND NO NOTABLE
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. THIS IS
WELL AGREED BY THE BIG THREE MODELS.

FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOOTS THROUGH THE AREA FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS...STILL NOTHING NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.

AT THIS POINT THE MODELS SPLIT OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. WILL
FOCUS ON THE GFS VERSUS EC FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES. THE MAIN FACTOR
THAT IS CAUSING THE SPLIT IN THE MODELS IS THE UPPER TROUGH
STRENGTH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE GFS IS DEEP CAUSING THE
UPPER LEVEL JET INTO A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE EC WHICH IS
MUCH MORE SHALLOW WITH THE TROUGH. THE NET RESULT FOR THE REMAIN
OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL BRAND YOU WANT TO BUY OFF
ON. THE OVERALL SOLUTION THE GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP IS A LOW
PROBABILITY CASE OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE EC ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THE UPPER FEATURES THROUGH THE FLOW IN A
LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OF THE GFS SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
WHERE HALF SUPPORT SOME TYPE OF UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US... THE OTHER HALF LEAN TOWARDS THE EC WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW. THE GEM IS SOME WHERE IN BETWEEN.

END RESULT... VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND DAY 6. WENT MORE
FOR THE EC HOWEVER DID NUDGE POPS UP SOUTH AND EAST... NOT TO THE
LEVEL TO BE MENTIONED IN THE ZFP... BUT TO GIVE A HINT OF THE GFS
IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES BEYOND DAY 6 AGAIN ARE VERY SMOOTHED IN NATURE
PLAYING THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND MOST LIKELY WILL BE PLUS OR
MINUS TEN FROM THE GRIDDED FORECAST VALUES. PROTON

.AVIATION...
VFR INITIALLY. THEN MVFR DURING THE LATE EVENING AROUND 04Z AS
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGDV AND KSDY
TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS. THE MVFR CONDITION WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
15Z IN THE AT THE KGGW AND KOLF TERMINALS. THE KSDY AND KGDV
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN AND LOWER
CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THEY WILL INCREASE UP TO BETWEEN 25 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUST OVER 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. RSMITH

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR FOR FORT PECK LAKE
IN THE FORT PECK LAKE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

624 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY
FOR LATE TONIGHT. HRRR IS BECOMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
NAM WITH MOISTURE PATTERNS. REST OF FORECAST WAS LEFT UNTOUCHED.
JAMBA

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN WYOMING EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. INVERTED
TROF EXTENDING NORTH FROM THIS LOW...ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST...SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY HAS REMAINED FAIRLY HIGH TODAY AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL KEEP DRY AIRMASS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW FROM REACHING
INTO THE CWA. THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THIS EVENING.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE LOW. MODELS INDICATING 40-50KTS AT 850MB AND FAIRLY HIGH LAPSE
RATES LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER
COLD AIR ADVECTION FAIRLY WEAK AND TIMING NOT OPTIMAL FOR BEST
MIXING ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION DRAG...WILL SHOULD KEEP FROM
MEETING FULL MIXING POTENTIAL. EXPECT COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.
THEREFORE WILL CANCEL WATCH...BUT ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS THAT
CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET EASILY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT AND NO NOTABLE
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. THIS IS
WELL AGREED BY THE BIG THREE MODELS.

FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOOTS THROUGH THE AREA FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS...STILL NOTHING NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES BEYOND DAY 6 AGAIN ARE VERY SMOOTHED IN NATURE
PLAYING THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND MOST LIKELY WILL BE PLUS OR
MINUS TEN FROM THE GRIDDED FORECAST VALUES. PROTON

.AVIATION...
VFR INITIALLY. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE EVENING
AROUND 03Z TO 05Z. RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AND BEHIND IT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE CEILINGS AND COULD ACT TO OBSCURE VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO MVFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS AHEAD... UP TO 20 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS NEARING 40 KTS BEHIND. GAH

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR FOR FORT PECK LAKE
IN THE FORT PECK LAKE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

904 AM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
MOST THINGS FOR TODAY LOOK GOOD. DID SOME MANIPULATION OF THE WIND
FIELDS TO INCLUDE MOST RECENT HRRR DATA. THIS SEEMS TO BRING DOWN
OVER ALL WIND SPEEDS EXCEPT FOR HILL TOPS AND MICROSCALE DOWNSLOPE
EFFECTS. CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO TWEAKED TO ADD THE LIMITED LOW
STRATUS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE YELLOWSTONE
VALLEY... MOST OF WHICH WILL BURN OFF BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO
TWEAKED SKY COVER GRIDS TO GIVE A BETTER INTERPRETATION OF THE
THIN STRATO-CIRRUS DECK THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE CWA OTHER
THAN THE NORTH. GAH

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
TWO MAIN IMPACTS TO THINK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FOR MONDAY ARE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SITS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL CONTROL
THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A UPPER LOW/TROUGH COMBO OFF
THE OREGON AND CALIFORNIA COAST IS POISED TO BE EJECTED OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BY ANOTHER UPPER
LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND DRAG A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
INTER MOUNTAIN WEST WILL HELP WARM THINGS UP THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. IT WILL BE
CLOSE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT WILL LET THE MORNING
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE
TO STRONG FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DRY ACROSS ZONE 122 SO WE
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY WINDS AND DRY FUELS. AS THE NEGATIVELY
TITLED TROUGH APPROACHES EASTERN MONTANA WITH ITS COLD FRONT
LEADING THE WAY IT WILL ENCOUNTER CAPE BETWEEN 450 AND 1000 J/KG
AND LI`S DOWN TO -4*C. THE STRONGEST CAPE SIGNATURE WILL BE OVER
THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY SO THIS IS THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. OTHER AREAS COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED
WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AND IT WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. AS IT WRAPS UP IT
WILL PULL MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA FROM ALBERTA.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH LIKELY
OVER THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. GOOD OMEGA VALUES PULLING THE STRONG
50 TO 65 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE 850 TO
700 MB LEVEL ON A NAM TIME SERIES IN WESTERN PRAIRIE COUNTY.
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NOW SINCE WE ALREADY
HAVE ANOTHER HIGHLIGHT FOR THE SAME GENERAL AREA WITH THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.

TUESDAY THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF CHANGE
OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES OF DANIELS
AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES. ONE GROUP THAT WILL BE SEVERALLY IMPACTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MONTANA IS THE YOUNG
LIVESTOCK. WE HAVE STRONG WINDS...COLD AND RAINY WEATHER WHICH IS
NOT A GOOD COMBINATION FOR NEWLY BORN LIVESTOCK. RSMITH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE EXTENDED BEINGS WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER MONTANA.
THE GFS AND EC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE. THE RIDGE
MIGRATES TO THE EAST PUTTING MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FROM
DAY 5 AND BEYOND THE EC AND GFS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PINNING DOWN THE EVENTS THIS WEEK WITH THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING... HOWEVER THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH CHANCES OF WEAK CONVECTION WITH
STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND FRONTS. OVERALL NOT ANY BIG TEMPERATURE
SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE SOLUTION IN THE EXTENDED LEANED ON A HEAVY EC CONSALL
BLEND FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS WHICH KEPT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TREND. PROTON

.AVIATION...
VFR. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE EAST WINDS KICKING EARLY THIS MORNING
AND LASTING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE MILK RIVER VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RIVER BOTTOM
AIRPORTS COULD HAVE MINOR LLWS ISSUES IN THE AFTERNOON. PROTON

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT MONDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MTZ122.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

642 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL STRETCH THROUGH 07Z BEFORE DIMINISHING
AND SHIFTING TO THE WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 07Z-12Z. DID NOT MENTION THUNDER AS APPEARS TOO
ISOLATED. VFR OTHERWISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/

DISCUSSION..

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING FEATURE OF INTEREST...
SHORTWAVE TROF...CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MODELS IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS WAVE WILL LIFT QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ATTENDANT SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN WY WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHT FALLS DROP 16DAM. INCOMING FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE THUNDER SOMETIME
AFTER 06Z. HIRES WRF AND RUC13 ARE ADVERTISING MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH DECENT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BNDRY/SFC TROF WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. ON TUESDAY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...
PARTICULARLY NORTH. FIRE WEATHER ISSUE COMING TO PLAY THEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS COMBINATION OF WIND AND MIXING DRIVES DEW POINTS/RH
DOWN CLOSE TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. FOCUS FOR THUNDER THEN
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES/INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ALONG THE
NEB/KS BORDER...THEN RE-ORIENTS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CWA. AS FOR DAY 4-7...AT THIS POINT NOT INCLINED TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT GFS/ECM
DIFFERENCES PER LATEST RUN. OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING LIKE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING AROUND 20 DEG ABOVE NORM HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

DEE

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. INITIALLY...WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 150-170 DEGREES SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 28KTS...
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 38KTS. SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTS AT KLNK/KOMA BY
ABOUT 27/00Z. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ALSO BRING A WIND
SHIFT...ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AS
WELL. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE AT KLNK/KOMA...IN THE 07Z-11Z
PERIOD. WINDS BECOME WEST AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY 27/15Z.

DEWALD

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-053-066-067-078-088-089.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-033-034-
043>045-050>053-065-066-078.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
016>018-030>032-042.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043.

FOBERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

105 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.AVIATION...TWO AREAS OF STRATUS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA. ONE AREA HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY THIN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT EXPAND AGAIN TONIGHT. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THIS FORECAST...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE OTHER AREA OF
STRATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NOW
INTO THE KLBF TERMINAL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE HERE TOO...AS STRATUS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AND MONITOR. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A KBUB TO KIEN LINE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO BACK IN ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING
PRODUCING A SHALLOW DECK OF STRATUS. WINDS STAY EAST MOST OF THE
DAY BENEATH THE DECK. WORSE THE RUC SHOWS PWAT POOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG THE SD BORDER WHICH CANT BE A GOOD WAY TO ERODE
STRATUS. SO 1ST PERIOD HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN MARKED DOWN USING THE
RUC13 AS A GUIDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
HAND ANALYSIS OF THE H5 CHART REVEALS THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS
BECOME FULLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING SOUTH OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA. THIS PATTERN PRESENTS GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BISECTING THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FROM
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. FURTHER WEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING/COLORADO...THE WIND IS
BEGINNING TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN.

THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD
EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH ROTATES
INLAND AND TAKES ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND THUS STRENGTHEN
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BACK ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AS SURFACE TD/S RETURN ABOVE 45F FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE THE
FIRE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE T/S REMAIN IN THE 70/S TO
LOW 80/S ALLOWING FOR EXPECTED RH VALUES WELL ABOVE RED FLAG
MINIMUM CRITERIA.

WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE...STORM CHANCES ARE A POSSIBILITY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT /FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA/. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STALLING ALONG OR NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BY 00Z MONDAY. SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURS AND IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...HOWEVER THERE IS
QUESTION AS TO IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO BREACH THE CAPPING INVERSION
AS STRONG RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. IF SO...THE STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO WORK ON MODEST
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45KTS.
STORMS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND CERTAINLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS A SOMEWHAT INVERTED V PROFILE IS SHOWN IN BUFR
SOUNDINGS. GOING INTO THE EVENING...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
AND PROVIDE A FURTHER FOCUS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SEVERAL CONCERNS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A PLETHORA OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED. FIRST...WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE ZONES
204 AND 210 WITH THIS MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. A DRY LINE IS
EXPECTED BECOME ESTABLISHED AND PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO
WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
TD/S FALLING BELOW 25F WITH THE PASSAGE. GIVEN ABNORMALLY HIGH
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...RH VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT /RED FLAG CRITERIA/ BY MIDAFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. MEANWHILE A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AS SURFACE PRESSURE RAPIDLY FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH. EXPECT SURFACE WIND SPEEDS TO GUST ABOVE 30 MPH FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
DEEPEN AND PUSH NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA.
AGAIN WIND SPEEDS LOOK PROBLEMATIC....AS HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 14MB/3HR ARE SUGGESTED BY SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS EXPECTED...IF NOT HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE. INITIALLY A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
INCREASES...STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN. LOOKING AT MODEST
CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH 6KM SHEAR OF GREATER THAN 40KTS WOULD
PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

TUESDAY MAY BE ACTIVE IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER AGAIN AS ABNORMALLY DRY
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. POOR RH
RECOVERY WILL AID IN PRIMING AVAILABLE FUELS...AND WITH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FA WELL BELOW 20 PERCENT RH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FIRE
CONCERNS MAY BE REALIZED. A COUPLE FACTORS GOING AGAINST THE FIRE
POTENTIAL FOR NOW...ONE IS THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD EASE WITH THE
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AND TWO...EARLY GREEN UP IS
OCCURRING...WILL NEED TO CONTACT AREA FMO/S TO DETERMINE FUEL
AVAILABILITY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL TREND THE FORECAST DOWN
SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...YET HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...TO THE LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH OF I80.

BEYOND TUESDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS BACK ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS JUST IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST
COAST OF NA. WILL KEEP T/S ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND
GO DRY BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER... STRONG DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO
AROUND 990MB ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL
MODELS ARE DRAWING VERY DRY AIR NORTH INTO THE LOW AND PRODUCING
SOUTH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH THROUGHOUT WRN NEB AS THE LOW
DEEPENS. A POWERFUL PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN RACE EAST THROUGH
WRN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING PRODUCING VERY STRONG WEST WIND GUSTS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND DRY LIGHTNING MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE LOCATED
NEAR HIGHWAY 61 MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH 9 PM MDT MONDAY EVENING
COVERING WRN NEBRASKA AND THE FRENCHMAN BASIN.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NEZ204-210.

AVIATION...TAYLOR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

626 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO BACK IN ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING
PRODUCING A SHALLOW DECK OF STRATUS. WINDS STAY EAST MOST OF THE
DAY BENEATH THE DECK. WORSE THE RUC SHOWS PWAT POOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG THE SD BORDER WHICH CANT BE A GOOD WAY TO ERODE
STRATUS. SO 1ST PERIOD HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN MARKED DOWN USING THE
RUC13 AS A GUIDE.

.AVIATION...
THE RUC SUGGESTED THE STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.
SO LIFR/IFR SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING BECOMING IFR/MVFR
EARLY THIS AFTN AND THEN VFR BY 21Z. VFR IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20.

ELSEWHERE VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
HAND ANALYSIS OF THE H5 CHART REVEALS THAT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING HAS BECOME FULLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING SOUTH OFF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS PATTERN PRESENTS GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
WYOMING/COLORADO...THE WIND IS BEGINNING TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN.

DISCUSSION...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES INLAND AND TAKES ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND THUS
STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BACK ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AS SURFACE TD/S RETURN
ABOVE 45F FOR MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
HELP DECREASE THE FIRE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE T/S
REMAIN IN THE 70/S TO LOW 80/S ALLOWING FOR EXPECTED RH VALUES WELL
ABOVE RED FLAG MINIMUM CRITERIA.

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS AFTER 18Z THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.

A WEAK ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED THROUGH KLBF SHOULD LIFT NORTH TO NEAR
THE SD BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AND AREAS NORTH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR IFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. THE RUC
SUGGESTS THERE IS POTENTIAL OF IFR TO LINGER ACROSS NRN NEB THROUGH
18Z DEPENDING ON THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WHICH IS SHOWN
BY THE MODEL TO BE NEAR HIGHWAY 20 AT 18Z.

THUS IFR VS VFR CONDITIONS NEAR KVTN ARE CONTINGENT ON THE FORMATION
OF IFR CIGS. THE LATEST SATELLITE INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF STRATUS
FORMING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE EXPANDING UNTIL 14Z-15Z FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL NORTHWARD EROSION AND CONTRACTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
LIFTING NORTH.

FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 990MB ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS ARE DRAWING VERY
DRY AIR NORTH INTO THE LOW AND PRODUCING SOUTH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH THROUGHOUT WRN NEB AS THE LOW DEEPENS. A POWERFUL PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL THEN RACE EAST THROUGH WRN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING
PRODUCING VERY STRONG WEST WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
DRY LIGHTNING MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR HIGHWAY 61 MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH 9 PM MDT MONDAY EVENING
COVERING WRN NEBRASKA AND THE FRENCHMAN BASIN.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-210.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

1015 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT MONDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL OFF
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE UPPED MIN
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM EDT MONDAY...BIG PICTURE SHOWS
DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH RIBBON OF
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BUILDING INTO OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1032MB HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA....WITH SFC
DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BLW ZERO THIS AFTN. THIS AIRMASS
WL BE ACRS OUR FA ON TUES...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FCST
CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE TEMPS...FOLLOWED BY DWPTS/RH PARAMETERS ON
TUES...ALONG WITH SFC WINDS. UPSTREAM MINS LAST NIGHT SHOW MANY
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A FEW BLW ZERO READINGS SOUTH OF
HUDSON BAY...ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TEMPS -20C. GIVEN SOME GRADIENT
ACRS OUR CWA....LIMITED SNOW PACK...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB
TEMPS...WL MENTION LOWS FROM 0F AT SLK/MTNS TO 5 TO 10F
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT TO 10 TO 15F CPV/SLV. RUC13 AND NAM12 RH
PROFILES STILL SHOW SOME 975MB TO 800MB RH ACRS THE NEK/NORTHERN
VT MTNS THRU 03Z...THEREFORE WL TRY TO SHOW SOME CLOUDS...BUT
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL MTN...DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH TWD MORNING.

TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY AT 12Z WL
SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NY BY 15Z AND INTO THE CPV BY 18Z TUES...WITH A
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BTWN 15
AND 25 MPH THRU NOON...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...BUT
DECREASING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS DURING THE AFTN HRS TO 5 TO 15 MPH.
AT VSF...SOUNDING SHOWS MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNTS...THRU
16Z...HELPING TO PRODUCE SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...DURING THE
MORNING HRS. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TO 900MB ON TUES
AFTN...WHICH WL TRANSFER SOME VERY DRY AIR TO THE SFC. UPSTREAM OBS
UNDER SFC HIGH PRES SHOWS DWPTS BTWN -9F AND +5F...COMBINED WITH
ANTICIPATED HIGHS IN THE 30S ON TUES...RESULTS IN MIN RH VALUES BTWN
10% AND 18%...WITH LOWEST VALUES ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY ZNS ON
TUES AFTN. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN WL DEVELOP
ACRS THE NE CONUS...WITH CHANGEABLE WX ANTICIPATED. ON TUES
NIGHT...COMBINATION OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLW AND DEVELOPING TIGHT
SW TO NE THERMAL GRADIENT WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT LOW TEMP FCST.
GIVEN...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SFC DWPTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...FEEL TEMPS WL QUICKLY DROP IN THE EARLY HRS...THEN
INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT AS WINDS/CLOUDS INCREASE. THINKING LOWS WL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10F NEK TO 20 TO 25F SLV/CPV. GFS/NAM ARE HANDLING
MOISTURE/LIFT PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH WAA DIFFERENTLY AND THE
ACCOMPANYING QPF. NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF FIELDS ACRS
OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA...WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25"...WHILE GFS IS
A TRACK TO 0.10". GIVEN...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF 5H
VORT AND WAA LIFT...AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW...WL TREND TWD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. WL MENTION CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS
ACRS NNY INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS AFT 06Z WEDS...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE (TRACE TO 1"). INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AS 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE BLW 540
AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE BTWN -2C AND -4C. BEST 850 TO 500MB RH
AND 700 TO 500MB OMEGA LIFTS FROM SW TO NW ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 06Z
AND 15Z WEDS. AFTER 15Z...BEST MOISTURE/LIFT IS ACRS OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN ZNS...AS WARM ADVECTS INTO OUR CWA. LOCAL 4KM AND NAM
SHOWS SOME LLVL DAMMING OF COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY NEK AND EXTREME
NORTHERN SLV ON WEDS...CREATING A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT.
WITH CLRING SKIES PARTS OF THE SLV FROM GOUVERNEUR TO
POTSDAM/CANTON WL WARM INTO THE L60S...WHILE NEAR MSS COULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. ELSEWHERE...GIVEN SHARP 925MB THERMAL
GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...TEMPS WL BE TRICKY...WL MENTION L/M50S CPV
TO L/M40S NEK/MTNS OF VT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 354 PM EDT MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
DISAGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEGINS TO EXIT
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. MAINTAINED CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG
EASTERN-FACING SLOPES WHERE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER.
NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE -8 TO -10C RANGE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY REACH INTO THE 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN TIMING REGARDING A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. 12Z GFS TRACKS THE LOW FURTHER TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY THAN THE 12Z ECMWF...AND IS ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAVE OPTED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM CONTINUITY...SO HAVE
KEPT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO TO NEGATE ANY STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...NOT ALLOWING A RADIATION INVERSION TO FORM.
DUE TO THIS...EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS BY
12Z...NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO SLOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY
AT OR JUST ABOVE 10 KNOTS AND SOME LIGHTER GUSTS INTO THE TEENS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...GUSTS DROP OFF
BY 20Z WITH SPEEDS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FROM THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INITIALLY VFR WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH BRIEF IFR INTERVALS POSSIBLE. RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY SHOULD
BRING LIGHT N-NW WINDS AND A RETURN TO DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE ON
TUESDAY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT COLD...BUT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE
FAIR. MIXING DEVELOPS EARLY AND WITH THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVING DOWN OVER US...THE IDEA OF SHARPLY FALLING
HUMIDITIES LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS A GOOD BET. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE 12 TO 18
PERCENT RANGE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TAPER OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH
WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT. FULL SUN WILL HELP DRY THE
FINE FUELS...WHICH GOT A REPRIEVE FROM THE LIGHT SNOW/CLOUD COVER
ON MONDAY. FORESTRY PERSONNEL INDICATE ABNORMALLY DRY FUELS
OVERALL...THUS THE SITUATION WILL BE EXAMINED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLY
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...EVENSON/BOYD
FIRE WEATHER...EVENSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

736 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 653 PM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. EXPECTING THE CLOUDS
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING...AND WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...AS TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO TO NEGATE ANY STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...NOT ALLOWING A RADIATION INVERSION TO FORM.
DUE TO THIS...EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS BY
12Z...NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO SLOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY
AT OR JUST ABOVE 10 KNOTS AND SOME LIGHTER GUSTS INTO THE TEENS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...GUSTS DROP OFF
BY 20Z WITH SPEEDS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FROM THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BOYD/EVENSON
FIRE WEATHER...EVENSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1044 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL DAY ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE
MARCH FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1044 PM MONDAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA. LOOK FOR THIS COLD FRONT TO QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHWARD...EXITING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA BY 1 AM TUE OR SOONER.
IN ADDITION...THE LATEST AND SUCCESSIVE HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE
QUICK SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. AFTER CFP...ONE CAN
EXPECT CAA N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH INITIALLY. THE CAA WILL BASICALLY RESIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND BEST IDENTIFIED THE 1K-8H PROGGED MODEL THICKNESSES.
INITIALLY 1K-8H THICKNESSES RANGE BETWEEN 1386-1376...THEN WITH THE
ENSUING CAA DROP TO 1320-1344 BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. NO PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CFP...AND LIKELY FEW IF ANY CLOUDINESS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CAA...AN EVEN DRIER ATM COLUMN TO ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH PWS FROM THE 8PM RAOBS INDICATING AROUND 0.50
INCHES...DROPPING TO 0.25 TO 0.35 INCHES VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WITH THE CAA AND A DECENT SFC PG...EXPECT NE WINDS
TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH AFTER CFP...UP TO 15 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY BUT NEAR
NORMAL FOR MARCH 27 UNDER NNE WIND FLOW IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S ON
TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW AFTN FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS BLOSSOMING
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON THE NE WIND FLOW BY AFTN.

A CHILLY START DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY UNDER NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT OVERHEAD...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS FIRST LIGHT OF
WEDNESDAY. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. THUS
LOOK FOR LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WEDNESDAY OF 30-35 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE COOL MORNING LOW AND MILD AFTERNOON HIGH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...A WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY PLACES
CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SINCE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST KEEPING BOTH GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE OUT OF
THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST APPEAR WARRANTED AS ISO
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP SHOULD FORCING PROVE STRONG ENOUGH. FRIDAY WILL
END UP NOTICEABLY COOLER AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH IN THIS CASE MUCH COOLER WILL SIMPLY TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE. PATTEN IS VERY PROGRESSIVE SO RIDGE ENDS UP OFF THE
COAST BY THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MILD CONDITIONS. WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL NOT HAVE A MERIDIONAL RIDGE AXIS THIS TIME SO
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE WARMUP. A SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE IS DEPICTED WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE AS APPROACHING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO THE MESOSCALE FORCING THAT MAY BE A PLAYER
BY SUNDAY IF NOT SATURDAY (GIVEN ADEQUATE MOISTURE). THIS FEATURE
MAY BE MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH TO STILL BE A PLAYER IN MONDAYS FORECAST
LOCALLY. THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS
DRAMATIC VARIABILITY AMONGST VARIOUS MODELS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...DRY FRONT IS PROBABLY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA...AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO
WEATHER TO SPEAK OF WITH IT...OTHER THAN A 20-30 DEGREE WIND SHIFT
AND A FEW STRATA CU. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG
FORMATION. TUESDAY...VFR WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTH NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...DIMINISHING A BIT TOWARD EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS SATURDAY.

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1044 PM MONDAY...RAISED A SCA FOR ALL ILM WATERS EXTENDING
THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY IT HAS DROPPED PAST
SURF CITY. LOOK FOR A W-NW WIND 10 KT OR LESS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BECOMING NE 15 TO 25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AFTER
THE CFP. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING...TO BUILD
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG
POST FRONTAL NE CAA SURGE. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE MORE REALISTIC
WAVEWATCH3 SEAS AS OPPOSED TO THE LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL RULE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WITH PERIODS IN THE
4 TO 6 SECOND RANGE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...BRISK NNE WINDS EARLY TUESDAY MAY BE
GREETED WITH CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER THE NC MARINE ZONES. WINDS
HOWEVER WILL QUICKLY EASE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA. EARLY WEDNESDAY MARKS A RETURN-FLOW TRANSITION
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES OF THE CAROLINAS. INCREASING
WSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EARL THURSDAY...AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OR EVEN AN ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...VEERING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY
BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA WHERE CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. THE
INCREASING OFFSHORE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT WILL LIMIT THE SIZE OF
SEAS ALONG THE 20 NM FORECAST ZONES AS THE HIGHER WIND WAVES ARE
PUSHED OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY COMPONENT SPREADS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WATER BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME WIND AND SEAS WILL BOTH BE DECREASING AS THE GRADIENT EASES.
THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT THIS HIGH WILL
END UP OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MORE
TYPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TRANSITION FROM OFFSHORE FLOW TO
ONE THAT IS COAST PARALLEL MAY FAVOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE SEAS
WELL AWAY FROM SHORE.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

800 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH...WILL CROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST AND
SUCCESSIVE HRRR MODEL RUN OUTPUTS. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT
DECENT NE WINDS AS CAA OVERSPREADS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR INFLUX BEST SEEN WITH THE 1K-8H PROGGED MODEL
THICKNESSES...WHICH ILLUSTRATE A RANGE BETWEEN 1386-1376 EARLY THIS
EVENING...DROPPING TO 1320-1344 BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. NO PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CFP...AND LIKELY NO CLOUDINESS EITHER. LOOKING
AT MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA...PWS DROP FROM A RANGE OF
0.50-0.70 INCHES THIS EVENING TO 0.25 TO 0.35 INCHES BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. WITH THE CAA AND A DECENT SFC PG...EXPECT NE WINDS 10 TO 15
MPH...UP TO 20 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS SATURDAY.

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...RAISED A SCA FOR ALL ILM WATERS EXTENDING
THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL ROUGHLY OCCUR BETWEEN
10 PM THIS EVENING AND 1 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR A SW-W
WIND 10 KT OR LESS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BECOMING NE 15 TO 25 KT
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AFTER THE CFP. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING...TO BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FT BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG POST FRONTAL NE CAA SURGE.
HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE MORE REALISTIC WAVEWATCH3 SEAS AS OPPOSED
TO THE LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL RULE
THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WITH PERIODS IN THE 4 TO 6 SECOND RANGE.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

305 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
PROGRESSES EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...

RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
FOOTHILLS NEAR HICKORY. CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LARGELY
WEAKENED AND SHIFTED NORTHEAST INTO VA. STABLE OUTFLOW FROM THE
LARGE LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS OVERSPREAD NEARLY ALL OF THE
PIEDMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. LATEST MESOANALYSIS
AND RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
STABILIZED BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF ~500 J/KG
REMAIN. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS...ELEVATED
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL CLEAR THE
TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL LOCATIONS WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THAT A STRONGER
STORM WHILE NOT ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD STILL PRODUCE
SOME HAIL...WITH THE WIND THREAT AND ESPECIALLY THE TORNADO THREAT
MINIMAL.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND BE
CENTERED NEAR KFAY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED WIND FORECAST
OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
IN THE WEST/NW PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. -BLAES

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...IF THERE IS A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO RE-DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH THE -20 TO 21C H5 COLD
CORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
WHERE STRONGER HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TONGUE SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK FLOW BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
FAVOR PULSE AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE WIND DAMAGE AND
HAIL THREATS LIKELY REMAINING MARGINAL.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL FOR SUNDAY IN THE HWO.

HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM LOWER 70S NW TO MID/UPPER 70S IN
THE EAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
EXITING...WITH DRIER AIR/CLEARING FILTERING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AOA DAYBREAK. LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER TO MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...

THE LATEST GFS/EUROPEAN MODELS ARE FAVORED WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM OUR REGION ON MONDAY.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE REAR OF THE UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NNW OF 10-15 MPH OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE
PIEDMONT TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO CENTRAL NC MONDAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
DRYING EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT... DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75 TO 80 WITH THE WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.

WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE... THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS
FOR BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY
EVENING... WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY LATE EVENING. A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DEEP
INTO GA BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER ISSUE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FROST ADVISORY
ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES CRASH AFTER THE WINDS
DIE OFF. LOWS OF 35-40 EXPECTED NORTH... WITH AROUND 40 IN THE SE.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SCATTERED FROST IN LOW LYING AND NON-URBAN
AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN 400 AM AND SUNRISE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

A SPRING TEMPERATURE SEE-SAW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

A RAPID WARM-UP WEDNESDAY WILL BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80. THIS WARMTH WILL PEAK THURSDAY WHEN THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THIS WARMTH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOLER
AIR WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 65-72 RANGE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWS SHOULD STAY ABOVE THE FROST THRESHOLD DURING
THE NEXT COOL SNAP FRIDAY MORNING (MOSTLY 38+ DEGREES).

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES EAST/SE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. TRANSIENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN ASSOC/W ANY CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR MVFR VISBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF
SITE THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING IN ASSOC/W A RESIDUAL MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND NOCTURNAL COOLING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH
18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IT`S SURFACE
REFLECTION PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LOOKING AHEAD:
CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL NC MONDAY/TUESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY IN ASSOC/W A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. -VINCENT

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLAES/CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

222 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL FOR SUNDAY IN THE HWO.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

ON MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EXIT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
AN H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TO TAKE ITS PLACE. AT THE SURFACE THE
PARENT HIGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON IN A WELL MIXED LAYER...15-20 KNOTS. THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE
40S...DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HIGHS NEAR 80 WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S.

STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. THE DAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AS THICKNESSES DROP 40-50 METERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS CENTRAL
NC WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE APPROACHING LOW.
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN FROM THE SOUTH AS DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S BY THE
END OF THE DAY. HIGHS MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN
THE LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH REGARDS TO
WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL FOR ONE
MAKE IT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA...AND TWO IF IT WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION OR NOT. AT CURRENT TIME THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH AS
A DRY FRONT BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE BIT MORE
ROBUST BRINGING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AND THEN DRIES OUT WHILE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH
THROUGH 18Z OR SO. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS IN THE NORTH AND KEEP THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
DRY...SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64. WITH THE FRONT LINGERING...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL MAKE IT UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH A LITTLE
BIT COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY...HOLDING OFF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY WHEREAS THE GFS BRINGS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS SYSTEM APPEARS WEAK
AT THIS TIME...TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE LARGELY
DETERMINED BY HOW FAR OFF OF THE COAST THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ON
SATURDAY. WITH LIGHT UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF AT
THIS TIME WHICH KEEPS THE HIGH CLOSER TO SHORE AND THUS DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLAES/CBL
SHORT TERM...RTE
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1020 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT/
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TOMORROW MORNING. TWO MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. FIRST IS POSSIBLE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND SECOND IS STRONG WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. AT THE CURRENT TIME...THERE IS AN ARC OF CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE BAND OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...HELPING BREAK THE CAP IN PLACE. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AT THE CURRENT TIME...AND IT MAINTAINS THE BAND
TILL AT LEAST INTERSTATE 29. THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS WHICH...COMBINED WITH WARM AIR AROUND 800 MB...WILL ACT AS A
CAPPING MECHANISM AS THE LINE APPROACHES. AT THE CURRENT TIME THE
STRONG LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS HELPING OVERCOME THE CAP. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR AS LINE APPROACHES. IF THE BAND CAN MAINTAIN
ITSELF... WILL HAVE MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/G IN OUR WEST...AND CLOSER
TO 500 OR 1000 J/KG CLOSER TO SIOUX FALLS. THIS IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AND WITH LINEAR NATURE OF STORMS...THINK HAIL THREAT
WILL BE MINIMAL. WINDS ARE THE BIGGER QUESTION MARK.

SEEING STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...THINKING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY REMAIN
ELEVATED...ABOVE THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THE
OUTFLOW TO REACH THE SURFACE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER THE NORTHWEST WINDS OF THE
OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
SYNOPTIC WINDS. THE OVERALL RESULT BEING A MAINLY NON SEVERE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SYNOPTIC WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TURN MORE
WESTERLY...WITH AROUND 50+ KTS AT 850MB. LOCATIONS IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO 50 KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AROUND 4Z TO 6Z. FURTHER EAST MAY
STILL SEE A SURGE OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD BE
LIGHTER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND CORE A BIT WEAKER AND WINDS HAVING
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...A BIT LESS CONDUCIVE FOR MIXING
DOWN OF THESE STRONGEST WINDS. /CHENARD

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT SO INCREASED LOWS A BIT AND SLOWED THE
DIURNAL FALL. ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TOMORROW.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT STILL BREEZY
AND WINDS WILL CRANK RIGHT BACK UP ON TUESDAY MORNING SO NO REAL
REASON TO TAKE THE ADVISORY OUT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...STILL SOME
THREAT FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS PRETTY LIMITED.
VERY WARM AND DRY ALOFT JUST NOT SUPPORTING A WHOLE LOT OF
INSTABILITY AND EVEN WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING WORKING ONTO
THE PLAINS NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH COVERAGE IF SOMETHING CAN
DEVELOP.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AS A DEEP...DRY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY
HIGH END WIND ADVISORY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. FIRE WEATHER ALSO A MAJOR CONCERN ON TUESDAY AND WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA DURING THE SAME TIME. SOME CONCERN THAT DEW POINTS MAY
STAY JUST A SMIDGE TOO HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SO CONFIDENCE
NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. /08

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. WITH THAT...WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH
THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IT WILL BE COOLER ON TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE RANGE OF 6 TO 11 DEGREES OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. IN RESPONSE IT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY
MILDER NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. BY THURSDAY...THETA E
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE REGION. WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FOR THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

IN THE EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...GENERAL LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT WILL SEE A
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
CONSENSUS NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS
INTO THE MID /UPPER TEENS BY THAT TIME...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S. MODELS HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN THAT TIME FRAME...THOUGH PRETTY POOR AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO
STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THE FEATURE. CONFIDENCE WANES EVEN MORE
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY LATER ON MONDAY. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE
THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS ONLY WEAK TROUGHING TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY
TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER OUR AREA BY MONDAY. THIS
OF COURSE WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THAT PERIOD...SO CONSENSUS NUMBERS THE WAY
TO GO WITH SOME COOLING AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S. /JM

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST AREA FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. IN THE SHORTER TERM...A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB. THE
HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE EVENING AND HAS
INITIALIZED IT PRETTY CLOSE IN LOCATION. THE HRRR MOVES THE LINE TO
I 29 BY 07Z TONIGHT...THEN IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER 07Z WHEN IT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA. THEREFORE THE 06Z KFSD
AND KSUX TAFS WILL REFLECT A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AROUND THE 06Z TO
07Z TIME FRAME FOR KFSD AND KSUX. NOT SURE WHETHER THE LINE WILL
MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS KHON IN EAST CENTRAL SD...SO THE CURRENT
SCATTERED CB CLOUD GROUP FOR THE LATE EVENING STILL LOOKS PRUDENT.
THE MAJOR STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE WINDS. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF 25
TO 45 MPH WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR A BRIEF
TIME TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE LINE OF
CONVECTION...AND ALSO NORTH OF I 90 ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WILL BE FROM
A WESTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ300.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
020>022-031-032.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ301.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
090-097-098.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ900.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ249.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ255>258.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-050-052>071.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

854 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

.UPDATE...02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO MELLETTE AND TODD COUNTIES. STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURING OVER NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.

.AVIATION...00Z TAF UPDATE
MVFR CIGS IN -SHRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP
TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL WY WITH
WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT ALONG I-90 AND COLD FRONT DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHEAST CO. 7MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF LOW AS SHORTWAVE IS
RAPIDLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WY. HIGHLY ELEVATED RETURNS NOW
SHOWING UP AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND ON NOSE OF 100KT JET STREAK.
CONCERN THIS FORECAST IS DISPOSITION OF THESE STRONG WAVE.

12Z/18Z GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. IT BRINGS SHORTWAVE OUT
NEGATIVELY-TILTED REACHING EASTERN ND BY 12Z TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND RACES
INTO EASTERN ND BY 12Z TUESDAY. COLD FRONT BEHIND LOW RACES EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...PLOWING THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z.
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...LOW 50S TD/S POOLING GIVING AROUND 1KJ/KG
MLCAPE...BUT MLCIN FROM 50-100J/KG JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH CAP TO BREAK FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS...BUT
LATEST HRRR/LOCAL WRF MODEL SUGGESTS AS BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
OVERTAKES COLD FRONT JUST NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW...WE SHOULD SEE
A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOP. DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM...AND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS GIVEN
0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHING 20-30M/S. STORMS WOULD MOVE AROUND 45KTS
TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL WATCH MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENT FOR SIGNS OF
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.

OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES
FORECAST OF 7-11MB BEHIND INITIAL COLD FRONT. COMBINED WITH 850MB
WINDS INCREASING TO 55KTS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...IT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE
SURFACE OVER NORTHEAST WY/THE BLACK HILLS/SOUTHWEST SD EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN OVER NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD MID-
EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND COLD FRONT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND STRONG
DRYING AND LINKAGE THROUGH 700MB. LATEST RUC SHOWING SYSTEM A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT HEADLINES IN PLACE
WILL ACCOUNT FOR THAT SCENARIO. AS LOW MOVES INTO ND LATER THIS
EVENING...SECONDARY PRESSURE RISE SURGE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST
WY/NORTHWEST SD KEEPING WINDS GOING THERE. WINDS SPEEDS SOUTH OF
I-90 SHOULD DECREASE SOME AFTER 06Z.

TUESDAY...TIGHT GRADIENT WITH 50KT 850MB NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP
HIGH WINDS GOING OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY
FURTHER SOUTH ON THE SD PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

EXTENDED...A MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COOL
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THURSDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY BEING SATURDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LIKELY TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.

AVIATION...18Z TAF UPDATE
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING VERY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR BADLANDS
AREA-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS-SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA-
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR BENNETT-
BUTTE-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-HARDING-HERMOSA
FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN
MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-ZIEBACH.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-
WYOMING BLACK HILLS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CROOK AND WESTON COUNTIES-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WYOMING BLACK HILLS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1226 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER MAX TEMPS
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY. STRONG CAA BELOW ABOUT H9 CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AND WITH 12Z RUC INDICATING THAT WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS MIXING MUCH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...
ANTICIPATING THAT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...IF NOT COOLER. BEST CHANCES FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE SOME OF THE LLV STRATUS
CONTINUES TO ERODE SWWD.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION LISTED BELOW...

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AS OF 8Z...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CHILLY...BUT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DEVELOP A
WEAK LLJ WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE/WAA INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME HI-RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 0Z
MONDAY IN THE NE CWA...OR WHERE THE BETTER LIFT AND LLM MOISTURE
WILL BE HAD. WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE...BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WILL CONSIST OF SHOWERS.

MOST OF MONDAY APPEARS TO BE CAPPED WITH BUFFER SOUNDINGS SHOWING
A STRATUS LAYER BELOW THE MID LEVEL WAA. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLEARING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WESTERN CWA
TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE DESTABILIZATION. ATTM...MODELS SHOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ND...WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TRAILING ACROSS WESTERN SD. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SEEMS
LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTION POSSIBILITY REACHING
THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 0Z TUESDAY. BEYOND 0Z TUESDAY...IT BECOMES
UNCLEAR WHETHER SURFACE CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
OR FRIZZLES WITH A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE EAST. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION MAY BECOME ELEVATED DUE TO
COOLING OF THE BL.

MOST OF TUESDAY IS BEGINNING TO LOOK DRY BUT WINDY WITH CAA MOVING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WITH
DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER...WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH. OF
NOTE...IF DECENT RAINFALL IN NOT ACHIEVED BY TUESDAY...THEN VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR MID WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER AIR
ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THIS WARM AIR MAY BE TEMPERED BY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AS A SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MORE ENHANCED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY WITH SYSTEM EVOLUTION
AND TIMING...WITH THE LATEST ECMWF BEING QUITE A BIT QUICKER AND
BRINGING A SYSTEM THROUGH ON FRI NIGHT/SAT WHILE THE GFS HAS
NOTHING UNTIL SUNDAY. WENT CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...KEEPING POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR STRATUS LAYER HAS BROKEN SOMEWHAT AND MOVED
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT KATY/KABR AND SHORTLY
KMBG. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL STALL OVER KPIR...AND MAY LIFT SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE
SOUTH...THE REMNANTS OF THE STRATUS AND A SECOND DEVELOPING
VFR/MVFR DECK WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
EAST AND STRENGTHEN TOWARDS MORNING. VFR VISBY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

922 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.UPDATE...
MADE SEVERAL CHANGES THIS MORNING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER MAX
TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TODAY. STRONG CAA BELOW ABOUT H9 CONTINUES
THIS MORNING AND WITH 12Z RUC INDICATING THAT WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS MIXING MUCH DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY... ANTICIPATING THAT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S...IF NOT COOLER. BEST CHANCES FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE SOME OF THE LLV
STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE SWWD.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A LARGE SWATH OF STRATUS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAVE
IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z. THERE IS AN
AREA OF CLEARING CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST ND THAT SHOULD
PUNCH INTO EASTERN SD...PERHAPS CLEARING OUT KABR/KATY FOR A WHILE
AROUND 16Z. THIS SAME AREA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT PUSHING INTO KPIR LATER IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME
DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING WHETHER THIS CLEARING WILL SPREAD OR
FILL BACK IN...BUT DECIDED TO LIFT ALL TAF SITES TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS LUBBOCK TX

904 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

.UPDATE...
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE
REGION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LARGER AMOUNTS OF CIN
INCREASING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/

AVIATION...
A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS KLBB RIGHT AT BEGINNING OF
THE TAF PERIOD BUT NO THUNDER EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MINOR RESTRICTION TO VSBY POSSIBLE AT
KLBB AROUND 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/

SHORT TERM...
THE DRYLINE HAS NOT MIXED AS FAR EAST AS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE STARTED TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT. SOME OF THE
12Z RUNS AND MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR TRIED TO BREAK OUT SOME
CONVECTION BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO BUT THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
RUC AND HRRR HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF OF THIS TREND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND ARE NOW FAVORING FURTHERING SOUTH. MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN THE RUC INDICATE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE BUT FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS FEATURE. LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND
CONVERGENCE DO NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE TX/NM STATE LINE. ALTHOUGH
CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE PRETTY SLIM...THEY ARE NON-NEGLIGIBLE AND
OPTED TO RETAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD ANY
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP...THE HIGH LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE A SMALL
WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS RESULTING IN STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MAYBE
SOME HAIL REPORTS.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MIX BACK WEST OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS BECOME FAIRLY LOW ON THE CAPROCK WHICH
MAY FAVOR SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO HOLD MIN TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
REPEAT OF TODAY...DRYLINE GRADIENT REMAINS WEST NEAR THE STATE
LINE...DECENT INSTABILITY LEVELS...WEAK WIND SHEAR...BUT A FAIRLY
STRONG CAP. HELD OFF INCREASING POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE
INCREASED FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FIRST-HALF OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORM THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST SOLUTIONS DISPLAYED SLIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE SPATIALLY
DISTRIBUTED NEAR THE STATE LINE/FAR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE SAID
PERIOD. HINTS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE RETREATING LINE
TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...AND SPREADING NORTH TO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS
SOLUTIONS. THIS COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS. DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY...A CAPPING INVERSION IS EVIDENT VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER A GRADUAL STEEPING OF LAPSE RATES BY THE EVENING
HOURS MAY LEAD TO CI ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EMBEDDED IMPULSE SHIFTS NE
NEAR THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ACROSS SWRN ZONES TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

BY THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL
FLOW...ALBEIT WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES. THE FIRST IMPULSE IS NOTED
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY THURSDAY EVENING WELL EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. THIS IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE THE SAME DISTURBANCE THAT
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS MENTIONED ABOVE. PWATS AOA
1.00 INCH...LITTLE TO NO CIN...SFC BASED CAPE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG
AND A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO STORMS /POSSIBLY
STRONG/ ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POSSIBILITY AS CI COMMENCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE ADDITION OF
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE STATE LINE AS THE
LLJ INCREASES. THE GFS ON THE OTHER-HAND HAS BEST PRECIP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE EAST...WITH HINTS OF LIGHT QPF VALUES ALONG
THE DRYLINE WEST. WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE CAT ACROSS THE SE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ATTM...DUE TO MODEL
CONSISTENCY /AS OF LATE/ IN SHOWING BEST PRECIP ACROSS THE SE
NEAREST TO THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. FRIDAY THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH
EAST TO LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW
ALOFT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
PWATS AOA 0.65 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN ADDITION TO
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...MAY LEAD TO STORM DEVELOPMENT. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND/BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...UNCERTAINTY SETS IN AS
MODELS DISAGREE WITH WHAT TO DO WITH A PACIFIC UA LOW. THE GFS TREKS
THE UA LOW ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING ...AND THUS INDUCE RATHER BREEZY WESTERLY SFC
WINDS ON SUNDAY THUS PUSHING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE CWA. BY
MONDAY...A BREEZY NORTHERLY FROPA WILL OCCUR ALTHOUGH MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN BEST PRECIP WELL EAST OF THE CWA...COINCIDING
WITH DRYLINE FEATURE. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE UA LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
GIVING WAY TO LITTLE FANFARE FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL THEREFORE
OPT TO MAINTAIN SILENT POPS BEYOND FRIDAY ATTM...AS THE ANALYSIS OF
FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY IS HIGHLY DESIRED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 46 81 47 80 48 / 10 10 10 20 20
TULIA 54 84 51 82 51 / 10 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 56 83 51 82 52 / 10 10 20 20 30
LEVELLAND 57 84 52 84 52 / 10 10 20 20 30
LUBBOCK 56 83 54 84 54 / 10 10 20 20 30
DENVER CITY 57 84 52 82 53 / 10 10 20 20 30
BROWNFIELD 57 83 53 83 53 / 10 10 20 20 30
CHILDRESS 56 85 56 86 56 / 10 10 20 20 30
SPUR 57 84 55 83 56 / 10 10 20 20 30
ASPERMONT 56 85 57 83 58 / 10 10 20 20 20

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01/07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

641 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

.AVIATION...
A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS KLBB RIGHT AT BEGINNING OF
THE TAF PERIOD BUT NO THUNDER EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MINOR RESTRICTION TO VSBY POSSIBLE AT
KLBB AROUND 12Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/

JORDAN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 46 81 47 80 48 / 10 10 10 20 20
TULIA 54 84 51 82 51 / 20 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 56 83 51 82 52 / 20 10 20 20 30
LEVELLAND 57 84 52 84 52 / 20 10 20 20 30
LUBBOCK 56 83 54 84 54 / 20 10 20 20 30
DENVER CITY 57 84 52 82 53 / 20 10 20 20 30
BROWNFIELD 57 83 53 83 53 / 20 10 20 20 30
CHILDRESS 56 85 56 86 56 / 20 10 20 20 30
SPUR 57 84 55 83 56 / 20 10 20 20 30
ASPERMONT 56 85 57 83 58 / 20 10 20 20 20

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

1151 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WACO THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST
PERIOD. AREAS OF GROUND FOG MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
WACO AROUND SUNRISE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE THINKING FROM THE 00Z
TAFS. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SHALLOW MOISTURE TO
MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF NORTH TX. AT THIS
TIME SHALLOW MOISTURE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE MOST ROBUST AT
KACT AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNRISE. ASSUMING SHALLOW FOG PANS OUT...A FEW HOURS OF LOW MVFR
OR IFR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED AT WACO UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING QUICKLY
MIXES OUT THE SHALLOW MORNING INVERSION. ONCE THE INVERSION MIXES
EXPECT A RAPID DISPERSION OF GROUND FOG AROUND WACO. VFR
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

CAVANAUGH

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG AROUND WACO.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER NORTH TX WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SHALLOW MOISTURE TO THE AREA SOUTHWEST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS BY SUNRISE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RETURN OF SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF METROPLEX AREA
TAF SITES...BUT WILL END UP AFFECTING THE WACO AREA JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. BASED ON LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS DECIDED TO INCLUDE
A FEW HRS OF IFR VSBYS AT KACT IN THE 11 TO 15Z TIMEFRAME AS A
SHALLOW INVERSION OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE IS INDICATED. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND IN PLACE THIS SET-UP SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITHIN THIS TIMEFRAME. AFTER A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF HEATING...EXPECT THIS SHALLOW INVERSION TO MIX OUT RESULTING IN
A QUICK DISPERSION OF ANY GROUND FOG NEAR KACT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CAVANAUGH

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
OVER AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPLEX. WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES IN THESE AREAS BASED ON
TRENDS AND NEW GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A
POSSIBILITY PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I 20 BY SUNRISE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012/
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING TO BRING HIGHER
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER THE HILL CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS LAST NIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...THIS TIME A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BRAZOS RIVER VALLEY WHERE TONGUE OF HIGHER SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL SET UP. ASIDE FROM ANY FOG...A GENERALLY
CLEAR...CALM...AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE. ANOTHER MILD AND
PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH BY MONDAY. AS A RESULT
GULF MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT HIGH TEMPS REMAIN MILD.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
FEW STORMS MAY FIRE ALONG THE DRY LINE IN THE TX PANHANDLE MONDAY
EVENING BUT THE FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA FOR ANY
RAIN CHANCES HERE. MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ON
TUESDAY WHICH MAY HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MONDAY/S READINGS. OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...
EXPECT MORNING STRATUS AND AFTERNOON SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS NEAR 60 FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE POLAR JET SETS UP OVER THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE
SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THE VOID
BETWEEN THE TWO...IT APPEARS THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A SHORTWAVE TO INTENSIFY INTO A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY. THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SHORTWAVE
INTO AN UPPER LOW RESULTS PRIMARILY FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...WHERE THE RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT FROM CONVECTION /NOT
THERMAL GRADIENTS/ STRENGTHEN THE VORTEX. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW
THIS UPPER LOW BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED AND WARM-CORE
SYSTEM...WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. CYCLONES OF THIS NATURE ARE NOT UNCOMMON IN THE SUMMER
MONTHS AND ARE NOTORIOUS FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS IS
OCCURRING SO EARLY IN THE YEAR...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CONTENT IS
PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR
HEAVY RAINS. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY OCCUR ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE LOW IS OVERHEAD...BUT WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH
POPS FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE 70S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

TR.92

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 57 83 59 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 10
WACO, TX 55 82 56 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 5
PARIS, TX 52 80 53 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 5
DENTON, TX 51 83 56 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY, TX 50 81 53 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 10
DALLAS, TX 58 83 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 10
TERRELL, TX 51 82 55 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 57 83 56 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 56 83 56 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 57 84 55 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 10

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1121 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...TERMINALS WILL TRANSITION FROM VFR TO IFR BY LATE
TONIGHT WITH A SLOW RETURN BACK TO VFR BY SUN AFTN. AS OF WRITING
STRATUS WAS DVLPING ALONG MID TX COAST WITH KCRP FLIRTING WITH IFR
CRITERIA. XPCTING STRATUS DECK TO BUILD INLAND THRU THE NIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS AND AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS BY
SUNRISE. AREAS OF FOG ALSO POSSIBLE IF STRATUS IS SLOWER TO DVLP
INLAND. KALI AND KVCT MAY XPERIENCE IFR VSBYS IF FOG AFFECTS
TERMINALS. BY LATE SUN MRNG AND THRU THE AFTN STRATUS SHOULD MIX
OUT WITH CIGS RISING AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR ALL TERMINALS.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE THRU SUN MRNG AND INCREASE TO
MODERATE LEVELS SUN AFTN.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT OBS AND MSAS DATA INDICATE HIGHER SWATH OF
MOISTURE LOCATED ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND
AND LOWER TEXAS COAST. THIS MOISTURE...ALBEIT SHALLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG WITH SOME FOG. NAM AND RUC PROG GREATEST FOG POTENTIAL TO BE
LOCATED INLAND ALONG AND IN BETWEEN THE HWY 281 AND 77 CORRIDORS.
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO ALTER DIURNAL DROP OF HOURLY
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION TO SHOW MORE TEMPERATE COOLING THIS
EVENING AND TO CHANGE DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
MOVING ONSHORE. ALSO ENHANCED FOG WORKING SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS
MENTIONED ABOVE. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 84 64 83 66 / 0 0 10 0 10
VICTORIA 61 83 60 84 62 / 0 0 10 0 10
LAREDO 68 91 68 90 69 / 0 10 10 10 10
ALICE 65 86 65 86 64 / 0 0 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 67 80 67 80 68 / 0 0 10 0 10
COTULLA 62 86 63 86 64 / 0 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 65 83 65 85 65 / 0 0 10 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 68 79 66 79 69 / 0 0 10 0 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

AVIATION...HART/79

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1054 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES DRASTICALLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
PLAN TO STICK WITH NO HEADLINES OVER NC/FAR NE WI TONIGHT. THE GFS
MODEL...WHICH IS GENERATING A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI LATER THIS EVG AND OVERNIGHT...IS VASTLY OVERFORECASTING
QPF AMOUNTS EARLY IN THE GAME. IT`S FCST SOUNDINGS WERE TOO MOIST
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS COMPARED TO THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING...AND
WAY TOO MOIST AND COOL IN THE MID-LEVELS COMPARED WITH THE 00Z MPX
SOUNDING. THE NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS VERIFIED MUCH BETTER WITH REALITY...SO
WILL FOCUS ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS HAD
DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING NEAR IMT...MUCH OF NC/FAR NE WI WAS STILL
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AT 8 PM...MAINLY DUE TO THICKENING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. UPSTREAM PCPN WAS STILL LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT SCATTERED IN NATURE...
AND WILL BE MOVG INTO A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER NE WI...WHERE H8 DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE AROUND 30 C (SEE GRB RAOB). WITHOUT STEADY
PCPN...EVAP COOLING WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DROP LLVL TEMPS FULLY TO THEIR
WET BULB TEMPS. IN ADDITION...NAM/RUC ONLY SHOW A SMALL AREA OF SUB-
FREEZING SFC TEMPS IN FAR NE WI AROUND 06Z...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE CWA
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY 09Z. DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO CURRENT ROAD SFC
TEMPS THIS EVG...WHICH IS UNFORTUNATE...BUT GIVEN THAT MAX TEMPS
REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NC/FAR NE WI THIS
AFTERNOON...SUSPECT THAT ROADS TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING.
CURRENT PLAN IS TO KEEP A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN/SLEET OVER NC/FAR
NE WI TONIGHT...BUT FEEL THAT TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL DUE
TO FAIRLY LIGHT PCPN AND LITTLE OR NO ICING ON THE ROADS.

REST OF THE CWA (C/EC/NE WI) SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...EVEN
THOUGH PARTS OF EASTERN WI HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 30S THIS EVG.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL...
ESP OVER OUR SW COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS/WX/TEMPS...AND HOPE TO GET UPDATED
FCSTS OUT BY AROUND 930 PM.

KIECKBUSCH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND ALONG THE
850MB FRONT...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL OUT OF A 9KFT DECK OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HARD TO SAY IF ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
ARE REACHING THE GROUND OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THOUGH RUC
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE DRY WEDGE CENTERED AROUND 850MB THAT WOULD
INDICATE MOSTLY VIRGA. FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AS THIS LLJ AND 850MB
WARM FRONT MOVE NE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES AND PRECIP
TYPE REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT NO MATTER WHICH WAY YOU SLICE
IT. STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AN ALREADY POTENT LLJ
WILL CRANK UP TO 60-70KTS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING. AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL RAMP UP ON THE 300K SURFACE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
THINK WE WILL SEE A WARM AIR ADVECTION WING DEVELOP IN THIS AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. ADMITTEDLY SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS PRECIP...DUE TO THE VERY DRY AND SHALLOW POLAR AIRMASS THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE PRECIP
ARRIVAL. THIS PRECIP SHOULD THEN LIFT NE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THE LLJ VEERS. BUT THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND
PTYPE. THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD EAST
TONIGHT WHICH MODELS PROJECT CREATES A LARGE WARM NOSE IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE CENTERED AROUND 800MB. WITH TEMPS IN THIS WARM NOSE
INCREASING TO 6-7C...PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL LIQUID IN THIS LAYER
OVERNIGHT. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL REVOLVE AROUND SURFACE TEMPS AS THE
SHALLOW POLAR AIRMASS LINGERS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
40S. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IS ALSO QUITE DRY RESULTING IN WET BULB
TEMPS MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. PRECIP WILL BE TRANSIENT...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE
FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. IF TEMPS ONLY FALL TO 31 OR 32
DEGREES...ANY FREEZING RAIN MAY NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT DUE TO WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPS AND
IMPACTS...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEADLINES...THOUGH POTENTIAL WILL BE
THERE FOR ONE. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
ELEVATED CAPES REACHING OVER 200 J/KG.

TUESDAY...850MB WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING
WILL ARRIVE ABOVE 700MB. PROGGED SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST
BETWEEN 900-700MB...SO THINKING MAYBE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ONCE THE FGEN INDUCED PRECIP EXITS. UPPER LEVEL FRONT TIED TO THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE HEADWAY ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE AREA WILL
REMAIN CAPPED FOR CONVECTION...BOTH ELEVATED AND AT THE SURFACE.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT STILL CAN ONLY FIND CAPPING. SO IN THE END...NOT
EXPECTING THAT MUCH TO HAPPEN TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THEN A CANADIAN HIGH DROPS DOWN TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND BRINGS DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO OUR AREA. A
FROST OR FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BAY AND
LAKE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD NORMALLY NOT BE MENTIONED AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT THE RECORD WARMTH OF MARCH HAS CAUSED MANY
FRUIT TREES TO BLOSSOM AND ORCHARD OWNERS HAVE REQUESTED THAT WE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND JET ENERGY APPROACHES FROM
THE PLAINS STATES. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND PALM SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MODELS HAVE BIG DIFFERENCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER MUCH OF THE TIME.
BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE TO RIDGING OVER
ALASKA AND THE POSSIBLE ESTABLISHMENT OF A POLAR VORTEX OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL.

MARINE...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LLVL FLOW
INCREASES TO 45KTS AT 950MB. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CENTERED
AROUND 800MB... HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE SHALLOW CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THE BL A LITTLE MORE MIXY THAN PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...THINK LOW END GALES ARE A
POSSIBILITY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SHOULD SEE STABILITY
BECOME A BIG FACTOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SUBSIDING.
&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MN INTO
CENTRAL WI LATE THIS EVENING. THIS BAND WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PCPN MOVG THROUGH
NC/FAR NE WI. WITH COOL AND VERY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER
NC/FAR NE WI...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND SLEET
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT DOUBT THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL
OCCUR. KEPT A TEMPO GROUP WITH MIXED RAIN/SLEET IN THE RHI TAF...
BUT ONLY RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...SO EXPECT LLWS TO BE A PROBLEM
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY AT TIMES DURING
THE DAY. ADDED A MENTION OF VCTS FOR ATW/GRB LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS SOME INSTABILITY WORKS ITS WAY INTO EC WI AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION A
PROB30 FOR TSTMS AT THIS TIME.

KIECKBUSCH
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1043 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

.UPDATE...

MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE
TO MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A JET MAX PUSHES ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
A WEAKENING VORT MAX OVER IOWA WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AROUND SUNRISE.

FAIRLY STRONG 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH
MODERATE LIFT AROUND 7.5 MICROBAR/SEC WITH THE VORT MAX. STRONG 75
KNOT 850 MB JET OVER MINNESOTA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE NOSE
OF THE JET AND MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES
OVERNIGHT BECOMING CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
12Z/7AM CDT. THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH SATURATION AROUND 4 TO 6 THSD FT WITH A
DEVELOPING DRY LAYER ABOVE BY 12Z. THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPEAR TOO HIGH ABOVE THE MOISTURE WITH AN INVERSION AROUND
9 THSD FT.

NAM DISSIPATES THE SHOWERS THAT ARE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...A PROCESS THAT IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE.

THE 00Z HRRR DIMINISHES THE SHOWERS ALSO...WITH ONLY ELEVATED
RETURNS AFTER 06Z WITH NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND
THROUGH 06Z.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
APPEARS RATHER LOW.

850 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL WITH 45
KNOT WINDS AR 2 THSD FT AT MSN BY 10Z. HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING ALSO.

.MARINE...EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO GALES
TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AREA.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/

VERY SHORT TERM....

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LIGHT RAIN LINGERING FROM AROUND WATERTOWN WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
IS BEGINNING TO DRY OUT. MAY AFFECT EASTERN AREAS BRIEFLY...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COULD THEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. BEGINNING TO SEE THINGS FIRE ALONG MN/IA BORDER...SO UPPED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE THROUGH THE EVENING.

WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL HELP THINGS WARM UP
NICELY TOMORROW...AS TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY.
WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE WEST WHERE LOW 70S EXPECTED. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICK THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES...ALONG WITH WHEN WINDS GO MORE
SOUTHERLY THAN SOUTHEAST...A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE.
THINK THERE WILL BE A WINDOW FOR WARMER TEMPS BEFORE SUNSET...SO
RAISED THEM A BIT.

COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. SFC CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...WITH
PRETTY GOOD SHEAR EXPECTED. WINDOW LOOKS PRETTY SMALL...BUT A FEW
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC HAS BUMPED
THE SLIGHT RISK INTO THE SRN FORECAST AREA.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

WILL LINGER LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL 06Z...WHEN TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 1000-850MB LAYER FRONTOGENESIS MAX CLEARS THE STATE.
CLOUDS CLEAR WITH OCCLUSION WRAPPING DRY AIR UNDER DEPARTING LOW. NO
STRONG COLD SURGE BEHIND TROUGH AND ENOUGH MIXING FROM WESTERLY
WINDS TO HOLD LOWS UP IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

NO PRECIPITATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING STATE WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE ONLY LIGHT MODEL QPF ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING WITH STRONGEST
WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED 925MB TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING DOWN THROUGH STATE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 30-32F IN THE FAR NORTH...AND NEAR FREEZING
SOUTH. WILL ADD AREAS OF FROST WHERE TEMPS REACH 32F OR LOWER...AND
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT INTO THE MID 50S IN WESTERN CWA THURSDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE EDGING TOWARD WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...BUT EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP EAST COOL IN THE MID 40S ALONG
THE LAKE TO AROUND 50 INLAND.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

INFLUENCE OF HIGH HOLDS INTO THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH INCREASING 850 MB WINDS AHEAD OF
NEXT SHORT WAVE...WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MAX...SPREADS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUPPORT THUNDER.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CVA-DRIVEN
FORCING AS SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH...DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THESE WAVES ABOUND IN THE ZONAL
FLOW...WHICH WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. A CONSENSUS APPROACH STILL BEST. MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD
WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PROSPECTS FOR AN OMEGA
BLOCK DEPICTED ON SUNDAY/S MODEL RUNS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF BY 00Z TUESDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

LIGHT RAIN LINGERING FROM AROUND WATERTOWN WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
IS BEGINNING TO DRY OUT. MAY AFFECT EASTERN AREAS BRIEFLY...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COULD THEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM.

OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY WILL BE INCREASING WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 OR EVEN 35
KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS INCREASE TO ABOUT 50 KT AT 2 KFT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...BUT THINK WIND INCREASE AT THE SFC SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
LEAVE WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE TAFS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO PUT SHEAR
IN TOMORROW EVENING AS WINDS EASE AT THE SFC BUT REMAIN STRONG ALOFT.

COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

MARINE...

WINDS EASED THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. THINK WAVES OF GREATER THAN 4 FEET WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING...WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THUS HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE
ADVISORY WILL TRANSITION TO A GALE WARNING AT 9Z FOR NORTHERN
ZONES...AND 12Z SOUTHERN ZONES AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...ALONG WITH
WAVES BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FEET.

MARINE...COMING SOON.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-644.

GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-644.

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

852 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS/WX/TEMPS...AND HOPE TO GET UPDATED
FCSTS OUT BY AROUND 930 PM.

KIECKBUSCH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUED TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVG...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS WAS STILL OVER MN AND NORTHEAST IA. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
COVERED MOST OF GRB CWA...WITH SOME STRATUCUMULUS NOTED OVER WSTRN WI.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A WARM
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND
CAUSE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO SHIFT NE THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...COOL AND DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC MAY
LEAD TO SOME MIXED PCPN OVER MAINLY NC AND FAR NE WI OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO PCPN TYPE IN THIS AREA...AS
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE INCOMING WARMER AIR MAY KEEP SFC
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY MIXED PCPN FOR
THE RHI TAF SITE...AND ALL RAIN FOR THE OTHER SITES. MVFR CIGS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVERNIGHT. UNSTABLE AIR
ALOFT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVG AND CONTINUE UNTIL
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE MIXING INCREASES ON TUESDAY MORNING...
THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL REACH THE SFC...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

KIECKBUSCH
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

703 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THEN A CANADIAN HIGH DROPS DOWN TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND BRINGS DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO OUR AREA. A
FROST OR FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BAY AND
LAKE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD NORMALLY NOT BE MENTIONED AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT THE RECORD WARMTH OF MARCH HAS CAUSED MANY
FRUIT TREES TO BLOSSOM AND ORCHARD OWNERS HAVE REQUESTED THAT WE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND JET ENERGY APPROACHES FROM
THE PLAINS STATES. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND PALM SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

KIECKBUSCH
&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LLVL FLOW
INCREASES TO 45KTS AT 950MB. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CENTERED
AROUND 800MB... HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE SHALLOW CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THE BL A LITTLE MORE MIXY THAN PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...THINK LOW END GALES ARE A
POSSIBILITY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SHOULD SEE STABILITY
BECOME A BIG FACTOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SUBSIDING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

630 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
230 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS...STORM AND
GRADIENT RELATED...TUE/TUE NIGHT.

A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH THE 26.12Z
NAM AND GFS TAKING THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN MN BY 00Z WED. THE
SYSTEM COMES IN STACKED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...TAKING ITS
NORTH-SOUTH COLD FRONT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 18-21Z TUE...AND
THEN ACROSS EASTERN WI BY 03Z WED.

BEFORE THE HEART OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN THERE WILL BE
STRONG LOW LEVEL 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...ALONG WITH ADVECTION ON THE ISENTROPIC
SFCS. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A
60+ KT LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN MN TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUING TO POINT TO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SATURATION COULD BE A CONCERN A NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING
X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER
NORTH...WITH SATURATION CONFINED UNDER 700 MB FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS...LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND DEEPER SATURATION MAKES PCPN MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOCALLY...MOSTLY NORTH OF A WABASHA MN TO BLACK RIVER FALLS WI LINE.

HOWEVER...CURRENT 88-D IMAGERY HAS AN EXPANDING BAND OF SHOWERS
WHICH HAVE BLOSSOMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. RUC13 WOULD SLIDE THIS BAND OF PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN PCPN FOCUS THEN TURNING FARTHER
NORTH. WILL WORK PCPN CHANCES WITH THIS IN MIND

TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOT A LOT OF
FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ACCORDING TO THE NAM/GFS. SOME MUCAPE OF 250-500
J/KG WORKS INTO NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. 0-3
KM SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AT 40-45 KTS FROM THE WEST. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...INVERTED-V
SHAPE. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AND IF ANY WOULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN. EVEN PERKY SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO
ACCELERATE SOME WIND TO THE SFC...WITH 40 MPH WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN TONIGHT...STAYING THAT WAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. 60 KT WINDS
BY 2000 FT...BUT ABOVE THE INVERSION. POST THE FRONT THOUGH...MIXING
IS DEEPER AND ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WON/T BE AS
STRONG...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS EXISTS. DON/T BELIEVE A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE
ACROSS THE OPEN AND UNSHELTERED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA
TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT...BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. IN ADDITION...COLDER...BUT
SEASONABLE AIR WILL RETURN...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING HELP
TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK THU.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST LOOK LIKELY. CONSIDERING THE RECENT VERY
WARM TEMPS AND EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON...COLD DAMAGE COULD
OCCUR TO TENDER VEGETATION AND COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS. A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
230 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RETURN FLOW POST A HIGH
INTERACTING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH A LOFT TO TRIGGER AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT-FRI. BOTH MODELS THEN
FAVOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SAT. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
TIMING...POSITIONING AND STRENGTH...BUT THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME
PCPN CHANCES IN THIS TIME FRAME. A STRONGER TROUGH AND SFC COLD
FRONT COULD THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AGAIN...DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
SIMILAR. SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO MOVE IN.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
630 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

THE NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADVANCING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
AND IN THE THETA-E AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAXIMA. THE BEST FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHERE THERE
WAS SOME CLEARING EARLIER TODAY. THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDER
FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE RAIN TO SHIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART.

THE OTHER CONCERN ARE WINDS FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CURRENTLY
QUITE BREEZY OUT THERE...AND SEE OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
IA THAT THE COLD OUTFLOW BEHIND THE RAIN IS ENHANCING GUSTS SOMEWHAT
WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 40KTS. OTHERWISE THE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD
SUSTAIN IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WILL NUDGE UP
5 TO 10 MORE KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO A POTENTIAL CONCERN THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE. THE VALLEY LOCATION SEEMS
TO BE PROTECTED FROM THE HIGHEST WINDS AT THIS POINT...AND IF THAT
CONTINUES...THE SHEAR FROM SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS AT THE SURFACE...TO
SOUTHWEST AT 60 KTS BY 2-4 KFT COULD BE AN ISSUE TO AIRCRAFT DURING
ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....MW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

251 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW STRATO-CU DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY EARLIER
TODAY AS MIXING INTO DRIER AIR OVERWHELMED THE SHALLOW COOL AND
MOIST AIRMASS. STILL SOME LINGERING CU OVER EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THOUGH TRENDS SUPPORT IT DISSIPATING AS WELL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. UPSTREAM IS PRETTY QUIET...WITH ONLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS AND HEADLINES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS INCOMING AIRMASS
FROM CANADA IS QUITE DRY AND WILL DROP PWATS TO UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. THOUGH AIRMASS IS VERY DRY...NOT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE SCT-BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER NE WISCONSIN WHERE NE WINDS
FUNNELED DOWN THE BAY...AND ALSO OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE BL
RATHER BREEZY. NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE 1000-850MB WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS...WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR DECOUPLING. AM GOING
TO LEAN TOWARDS DECOUPLING OCCURRING...DUE TO SANDY SOIL EFFECTS AND
CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...MID TWENTY
LOWS SEEM PERFECTLY REASONABLE UP NORTH...AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO
ADJUST HEADLINES. DID RAISE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND WIND. LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S HERE.

MONDAY...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STALL OVER SW WISCONSIN TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL RETURN NE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT
STARTS RETURNING NORTH. NE WISCONSIN WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...BUT CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
EVERYWHERE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE WEATHER WILL BE
MORE SEASONABLE THAN THE LAST TWO WEEKS WITH FLATTER ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SLEET TO BE
MIXED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LOTS OF SHEAR AND DECENT UPPER
SUPPORT. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LACKING THOUGH WHICH WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF
MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
CANADIAN HIGH SINKS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIKELY HAVE
SOME SUB FREEZING NIGHTS...WHICH IS COMPLETELY NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT MORE OF A CONCERN THIS YEAR DUE TO UNUSUAL
WARMTH THAT HAS STARTED AN EARLY GROWING SEASON. BIG DIFFERENCES
FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ALMOST 180
DEGREES OUT OF PHASE OVER OUR AREA.

.AVIATION...DRY AIR ARRIVING BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING MVFR STRATUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO ARRIVE TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP. MID CLOUDS WILL SHIFT SW TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE RETURNING NE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

MPC
&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021.

$$
MPC/RDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

120 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.UPDATE...

STRATUS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY
DOWN THE STATE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE HAVE BECOME MORE NW TO NNW BEHIND
THE FRONT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN THE WEST HALF WERE
LOW...BELOW 1000 FEET. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT RACED DOWN THE
LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST IN
INCREASED. THE NORTHEAST WINDS HIT KENOSHA BEFORE 10 AM. THE
MOISTURE THAT PUSHED INLAND FROM THE LAKE HIT THE KETTLE MORRAINE
AND BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS POPPED UP. SKIES ARE ACTUALLY CLEAR ALONG
THE LAKE AT THIS TIME SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE...BUT EXPECTING THIS AREA
TO FILL IN SOON. BROKEN CU JUST FILLED IN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WI
IN THE PAST HALF HOUR AS WELL. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST
FLOW ARE A LITTLE HIGHER...AROUND 2000 FEET.

WINDS ARE NORTHEAST IN FOND DU LAC LATE THIS MORNING...WITH PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT OFF THE LAKE FAIRLY STRONG.
THIS MEANS WE SHOULD EXPECT THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION TO WIN
OUT OVER THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NORTHEAST
WINDS PUSHING FURTHER AND FURTHER INLAND WITH TIME. RUC SHOWS THE
NNE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CURRENT CONDITIONS WOULD SHOW THE NE/NW WIND
BOUNDARY TO STALL AROUND THE MADISON/JANESVILLE AREA.

WITH THE STRATUS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN WI WITH THE FRONT COMING IN
EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S...SO CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS
THERE AND ALONG THE LAKE AS WELL.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

IFR STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM NORTHWEST
WI IS OVER WISCONSIN DELLS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TOO MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKE COLD FRONT BEATING THEM BACK.

A COLD FRONT RACED DOWN THE LAKE THIS MORNING...CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. THE COOL AIR ALONG THE FRONT BROUGHT
STRATUS CLOUDS DOWN THE LAKE...WHICH HAVE JUST RECENTLY SPREAD
INLAND TO MKE WITH IFR CIGS. CIGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR AROUND THE
AREA.

MEANWHILE...BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPED ALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING SOUTHEAST WI TO BE MUCH SLOWER TO CLEAR
AFTER DARK THAN SOUTH CENTRAL WI NEAR MSN. HOWEVER...EXPECT CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. THEN A SECOND SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO COME
DOWN THE LAKE MON MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR STRATUS. MEDIUM TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE STRATUS SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...MID CLOUDS SHOULD
SPREAD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT.

.MARINE...DRY AIR ON A LAKE COLD FRONT FUNNELED DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING...ERODING AWAY THE AREAS OF FOG THAT WERE JUST OFF
SHORE OF SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHEAST IL. LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING
INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS
TONIGHT WL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 22KTS TO REACH THE LAKE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. HENCE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVY IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS REDEVELOPING OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

WL POST DENSE FOG ADVY FOR MOST OF MY WEST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS CAUSING CLEARING OF 4-5K FT CLOUDS
ACROSS WEST AND NORTH...AND APPEARS CLEARING TREND WL CONTINUE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG FORMING RELATIVELY
QUICKLY BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE...AND THINKING DENSE FOG MAY LAST
FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR AT LOW LEVELS SAGS INTO THE SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL WI. MAY NEED TO EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVY EAST INTO PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST WI AS CLOUDS CLEAR EARLY THIS MRNG. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING UPSTREAM WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN BETTER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER FAR NORTHERN WI INTO NRN MN EARLY THIS MRNG.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE CLOUDS TO MAKE IT INTO SRN WI LATER
TODAY...BUT WL BE LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER TODAY INTO TNGT.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER ERN CONUS WILL RESULT
IN SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL CONUS. LOW LEVEL JET WL
INCREASE TO THE WEST OF WI TONIGHT...FOCUSED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS
INTO MN...NORTH AND WEST OF MAIN RIDGE. WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO SRN WI...PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER
SRN MN. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WL LIKELY PUSH INTO SRN WI...BUT NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING EXPCD TO TRIGGER PRECIP IN THIS
AREA...SO REMOVED LOW POPS FROM WEST. EXPC TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
30S...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST
FORMATION.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EAST FLOW AROUND DEPARTING HIGH WILL MAKE FOR TEMPS CLOSER TO A
NORMAL MARCH DAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH MODELS KEEPING
PRECIP FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WITH LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND SOME
WEAK ADIABATIC OMEGA...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND LOWER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. WAS GOING TO GO THE
SPRINKLE ROUTE IN THE WESTERN CWA BUT PREFER TO GO DRY AT THIS
POINT.

MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. STRONG VORT MAX RIDES INTO
THE DAKOTAS. 850 MILLIBAR SOUTHWEST JET INCREASES THOUGH CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS TO OUR NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE BETTER GRADIENT
AROUND THE STRONG DAKOTAS LOW. DECENT 850 MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION
WITH THIS PATTERN. MARKED INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA AND
MIXING RATIOS. NAM ELEVATED CAPE FROM 825 MILLIBARS SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT AIRMASS UPSTAIRS FAIRLY DRY.
GFS DRIER AND EVEN MORE STABLE. GEM/GFS AND SREF SKEWING QPF MAX
FURTHER NORTH AND JUST GRAZING CWA. ECMWF STILL GIVES THE ENTIRE
CWA A DECENT SHOT AT PRECIP. GUID POPS HAVE DROPPED AND LEANED
MORE IN THIS FAVOR GIVEN TRENDS NORTHWARD WITH QPF. STILL HAVE
SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHERN CWA IN THIS CASE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATES FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BULK OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH MODEL
SURFACE DEWS PROGGD INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SRN WI BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOS MORE CONSERVATIVE IN THE 40S. AFTER A
COOL START TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND WITH 925 TEMPS REACHING 13-16C.
LOCALLY DERIVED SEVERE WX PARAMETER...THE CWASP...STILL KEEPS THE
MAX JUST SOUTH OF WI...BUT CLOSE CALL. IN FACT SWODY3 MATCHES CLOSE
TO AXIS OF MAX CWASP. IF A NARROW RIBBON OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE CAN
SNEAK INTO WI AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
CORRIDOR OF ENOUGH CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT AT
THIS POINT ESPECIALLY WITH BRUNT OF VORT INFLUENCE TO THE NORTH AND
POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. TRACK OF THE
LOW AND STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS RAISES SOME CONCERN. HOWEVER A LOOK
AT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF STORMS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHOT OF 850 COLD AIR ADVECTION WRAPS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
LINGERS INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT PRECIP BASED ON BUFFY SOUNDINGS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS A BIT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGD INTO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. DECENT CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE MODELS ON THIS. ECMWF
DEVELOPS PRECIP WITH SURFACE LOW ON SATURDAY THOUGH GFS HAS HIGH
DOMINATING WITH PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN THE ECMWF DEVELOPMENT HAS
PRECIP LARGELY TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH...BUT
LOTS OF TIME YET TO FINE TUNE WITH CERTAIN CHANGES ON
TIMING/STRENGTH YET TO COME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN AND DISSIPATE FROM
THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE CLEARING. KMSN MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO A
PERIOD OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BINOVC OVER SOUTHEAST WI AS WELL LAST HOUR OR
TWO. HENCE FOG LIKELY AT ERN TAF SITES AS WELL EARLY. HOWEVER
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LINGERING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH MAY RESULT IN
MORE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MRNG VS THICKER FOG.

UPSTREAM STRATUS OVER FAR NORTHERN WI INTO NRN MN BEHIND APPROACHING
CDFNT NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE LOW
BUT SOME OF THESE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST
LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...ESPECIALLY WITH COLD AIR SURGE OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

MARINE...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MI KEEPING
DENSE FOG AT BAY. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE TODAY AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MI AND SOUTHERN WI. A
REINFORCING PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS
TONIGHT WL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE LOW LEVEL
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 22KTS TO REACH THE LAKE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. HENCE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVY WL BE POSTED.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR LMZ643>646.

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

119 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
27/04Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH INTO THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA. THE FRONT
IS ON TARGET TO CROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY SUNRISE. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A LITTLE STRATOCUMULUS AND A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS. LATE
EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN EXPECTED...SO NUDGED LOWS DOWN IN A FEW AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM SAVANNAH SOUTH TO DARIEN. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 FOR THE ZONES BORDERING THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS TO THE UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN NOTICEABLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DESCENDING FRONT WILL CREATE A DECENT
NORTH/SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
BE SUPPRESSED AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA...WHILE RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RESULTING WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SUPPORTING
MORE SEASONAL LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z/28 AT KCHS/KSAV. COLD FRONT TIMED TO CROSS
KCHS AROUND 07Z/27 AND KSAV AROUND 10Z/Q7. GUSTY NE SURFACE WINDS
LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE
OUT A LITTLE MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.MARINE...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE FASTER RUC SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL
TIMING OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS AROUND 2 AM AND WILL SURGE
STEADILY SOUTH...REACHING THE ALTAMAHA SOUND BY SUNRISE. EXPECT
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS...TRENDING LOWER FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE FROM EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AND LOOK WELL PLACED.

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KCLX RADAR WILL REMAIN OFFLINE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CLEANING AND PAINTING OF THE RADOME.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...79
LONG TERM...ALSHEIMER
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR/79

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

109 AM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012

WEAK SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES IN ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TH0UGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD VARY
GREATLY. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH THE FORECAST LIKELY
TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO NORMAL...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
IT COULD BE A PROLIFIC WIND MAKER AS WELL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS GOING THROUGH AT THIS TIME AND WILL BRIEFLY CAUSE THE WINDS
TO BE GUSTY. AFTER THE SUN COMES UP...THE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KMCK. WINDS WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1100 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM....007
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

413 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. AFTER A WARM UP CLOSE TO
60 TODAY...WE/LL BE BACK NEAR 50 WEDNESDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.

KGRR-88D SHOWS SOME LIGHT PCPN TRYING TO WORK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS PCPN WAS BEING CAUSED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
THAT/S STILL OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL VERY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR AND SO MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THIS PCPN SHOULD FALL AS
VIRGA OVER THE CWA. I BELIEVE THAT MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE DRY. THE
LATEST HRRR ALSO SUPPORTS THIS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NRN CWA WHERE
PCPN CHANCES ARE A BIT HIGHER.

WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS TONIGHT. AND THERE ARE DYNAMICS AVAILABLE
THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THE STORMS BEING STRONG TO SEVERE.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED
LI/S FALL TO AROUND -2C. A STRONG 55KT LLJ IS SHOWN IN SEVERAL OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS. ADDITIONALLY...55-60 KTS OF SHEAR IS
AVAILABLE. SO IF SOME STORMS DEVELOP THEY/LL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ORGANIZE. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SVR STORMS EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WHERE SFC HEATING WILL BE
STRONGER AND WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW OF THOSE STORMS MOVING
NORTH TOWARD THE CWA.

FROPA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME AROUND 06Z GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF
HOURS. PCPN CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BRING A FROST THREAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS. OVERRUNING PRECIP POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND WOULD KEEP
LOWER MICHIGAN COOLER AND MORE STABLE SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST.

PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW
APPROACHING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING BUT STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
PRECEDES THE LOW WHICH COULD FOCUS SOME CONVECTION BEGINNING MONDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT/S POSSIBLE KMKG COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER FROM 08-12Z
BUT MORE LIKELY THE PCPN WILL BE VIRGA. TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z
BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A PREDOMINATE GROUP.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING PRIOR TO FROPA.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY AS WAVES WILL REMAIN HIGH.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

HYDRO ISSUES ARE MIMIMAL TODAY. A TOUR THROUGH THE HYDROGRAPHS
SHOWS RIVERS STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....OSTUNO
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1221 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO TUE ARE MIXED PCPN/ICING POTENTIAL/
GOING FZRA ADVY ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WARM FNT...THEN SHRA CHCS ON
TUE WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

EXTENDED /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
GRADUAL WARMING HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

MID CLDS AND SOME MIXED PCPN IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE
TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER CIG/VSBY INTO THE MVFR RANGE. AS THE PCPN MOVES IN WHILE
SURFACE TEMPS AREREMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
LINGERS EXPECT SOME -FZRA...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE UPSLOPE SSE WIND
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER TEMPS LONGER. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL S WIND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...LLWS IS LIKELY TO IMPACT ALL 3
TAF SITES. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX TO THE SFC ON TUE FOLLOWING
SOME LLVL WARMING/DESTABILIZATION. AS WINDS VEER WRLY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TUE EVENING AND PRES RISE MOVES THROUGH...STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT CMX GUSTING TO NEAR 40KT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ004-005-010-011-084.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
TODAY FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-085.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ266.

GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ244-245-248-249-264-265.

GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ250-251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC/SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

237 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PV15 ANOMALY ACROSS SWRN SD HAS DECIDED TO PRODUCE STRONG TO HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE ERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS FAR SOUTH AS CHAPPELL.
SO A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE UNTIL 12Z. BY THE RUC SUGGESTS THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY THEN. NEDOR
OBS HAVE BEEN COMING IN EVER 15 MINUTES. SO WE WILL MONITOR THE
OBS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IF NECESSARY. MERRIMAN PROFILER RUNNING
STRONG SINCE 02Z WITH 40 TO 55 KTS AT THE LOWEST GATE. NEARLY
STEADY AT 50-55KT ABOVE THAT LEVEL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AFTER
00Z WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS AOA 20000 FT AGL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/

UPDATE...EXPIRED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
GUSTING TO 40 MPH...WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO
30 MPH. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER AFTER 2 AM
CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/

AVIATION...

FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP 40 KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
LATE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS LIKELY. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS ON TUESDAY. VFR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH CIGS ABOVE 15000 FT
AGL.

SYNOPSIS...
H5 CLOSED LOWS OFF PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST US WITH A
STRONG NEGATIVELY WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN SOME TIMING ISSUES TAKE HOLD.

TONIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY...

GOOD MIXING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SFC DEW
POINTS LOWERING AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL DRY LINE. DRY LINE AS OF MID
AFTERNOON EXTENDED SOUTH FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN CO. THIS DRY LINE WILL BULGE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVER TAKES IT. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN NEB EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WITH DECENT FORCING ARRIVING
ABOUT THE SAME TIME...STILL SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS. IF A
STORM DEVELOPS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

HIGH WIND WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING FOR THE NEB
PANHANDLE...AS RAPID PRESSURE RISE COUPLET INDICATED IN THE MODELS
SUPPORTS VERY STRONG WIND POTENTIAL BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
FURTHER EAST WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY AS PRESSURE RISES NOT AS
INTENSE.

FOLLOWED THE ALL BLENDS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A FEW TWEAKS TO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH GFS MUCH
FASTER THAN EC AND GEM HOLDING A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.

NICE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S. NEXT SEVERAL
SYSTEMS MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH TRAILING WAVES INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY TO CONTINUE BREEZY BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS UPPER
LOW SHEARS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
QUITE LOW AND HAVE PUT OUT A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CREATE WESTERLY DRY
DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUE WARM WEATHER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT
/11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ004-022-
023-035-056-094.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

1121 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 06Z. STRONG SOUTH WIND DECREASING
AND BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT BUT LOW POP PRECLUDES MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/

DISCUSSION..

DEE

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-053-066-067-078-088-089.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043.

FOBERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

1253 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT MONDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL OFF
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE UPPED MIN
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN WL DEVELOP
ACRS THE NE CONUS...WITH CHANGEABLE WX ANTICIPATED. ON TUES
NIGHT...COMBINATION OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLW AND DEVELOPING TIGHT
SW TO NE THERMAL GRADIENT WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT LOW TEMP FCST.
GIVEN...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SFC DWPTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...FEEL TEMPS WL QUICKLY DROP IN THE EARLY HRS...THEN
INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT AS WINDS/CLOUDS INCREASE. THINKING LOWS WL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10F NEK TO 20 TO 25F SLV/CPV. GFS/NAM ARE HANDLING
MOISTURE/LIFT PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH WAA DIFFERENTLY AND THE
ACCOMPANYING QPF. NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF FIELDS ACRS
OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA...WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25"...WHILE GFS IS
A TRACK TO 0.10". GIVEN...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF 5H
VORT AND WAA LIFT...AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW...WL TREND TWD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. WL MENTION CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS
ACRS NNY INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS AFT 06Z WEDS...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE (TRACE TO 1"). INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AS 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE BLW 540
AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE BTWN -2C AND -4C. BEST 850 TO 500MB RH
AND 700 TO 500MB OMEGA LIFTS FROM SW TO NW ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 06Z
AND 15Z WEDS. AFTER 15Z...BEST MOISTURE/LIFT IS ACRS OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN ZNS...AS WARM ADVECTS INTO OUR CWA. LOCAL 4KM AND NAM
SHOWS SOME LLVL DAMMING OF COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY NEK AND EXTREME
NORTHERN SLV ON WEDS...CREATING A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT.
WITH CLRING SKIES PARTS OF THE SLV FROM GOUVERNEUR TO
POTSDAM/CANTON WL WARM INTO THE L60S...WHILE NEAR MSS COULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. ELSEWHERE...GIVEN SHARP 925MB THERMAL
GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...TEMPS WL BE TRICKY...WL MENTION L/M50S CPV
TO L/M40S NEK/MTNS OF VT.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY EAST OF SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN N-NW WINDS THIS MORNING OF 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AT BTV/MPV. WINDS GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HRS FROM WEST-EAST AS SFC HIGH MOVES IN AND CRESTS OVER
THE REGION AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE SKC AND
NO VSBY OBSTRUCTIONS THRU THE DAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BRINGS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN FROM W-E
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 7-8 KFT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN LOWERING TO 4-5 KFT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NW-SE OVER THE REGION BRINGS PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTN...AND GENERALLY
MVFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR IN -SHSN DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BEST IFR POTL AT SLK/MPV 06-18Z
THURSDAY. NW FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FOR
FRIDAY. RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LIGHT N-NW WINDS AND AID IN THE
RETURN TO DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY STAY
JUST TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY...SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS AT THAT POINT...AND MAINLY FOR
SLK/RUT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS
FIRE WEATHER...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

414 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT BRINGS STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE STEADILY DROPPING...ROUGHLY 2-3F/HR...AROUND THE
CWA WITH SEVERAL ASOS LOCATIONS ALREADY HOVERING AROUND THE 32
DEGREE MARK. STRONG CAA WHICH ACCELERATED THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
EARLIER TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LATEST RUNS OF THE RUC HAVE 925MB FLOW SLACKENING AND TURNING MORE
PARALLEL TO THE ISOTHERMS. THIS WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW THE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND COOL EVEN MORE
RAPIDLY. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE OBSERVATION TRENDS AT KI16 OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS CONCERN THAT OUR SOUTHERN WV MNT
COUNTIES JUST OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY COULD HAVE SOME FROST DEVELOP
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD BEGIN QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS WE TRANSITION OVER
TO WAA. GOING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS FOR MAX
TEMPS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY WARM UNDER SUSTAINED WAA...STAYING
A COUPLE NOTCHES HIGHER...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE A DIURNAL TEMP TREND.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS OVERRUN BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF AS IT APPROACHES
WED. IT THEN PUSHES ON THROUGH WED NT AS A STRONGER S/W TROF DIGS
SE BEHIND IT. THE LEAD S/W WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WED. THIS IS ALSO
LIKELY TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY...CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF UP TO 1.2
INCHES PW ALONG WITH 1.5-2.5 KJ/KG CAPE AND HELICITY NOW FCST TO
EXCEED 300 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS AXIS SETS UP FROM EN KY NE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO CENTRAL WV DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
VALUES DECREASING AS ONE MOVES NE ALONG THE AXIS INTO NE WV.

SPC NOW HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK IN A NARROW AXIS FROM E KY INTO WV.
LIMITING FACTOR IS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. UPPER SUPPORT IS
WEAK BUT IS FCST OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ADDED GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL AND WILL CONTINUE HWO HIGHLIGHT BUT TRY TO LIMIT AREA
TO REFLECT SPC SLIGHT RISK.

COLD FRONT MOVES S THOUGH THE AREA WED NT...BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW TO SE. MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP
FOR THU W/R STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AMOUNT OF STRATOCU AS
A RESULT. DID INCREASE CLOUD FCST SOMEWHAT WITH STRENGTHENING EARLY
SPRING SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU NT...PRESENTING ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR
A FROST OR FREEZE.

TEMPERATURES WERE IN LIEN WITH GUIDANCE OR GUIDANCE BLENDS FOR THE
MOST PART...EXCEPT ON HIGHS THU. OPTED TO KEEP HIGHS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. ADDED FROST FOR THU NT INTO FRI
MORNING.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR AGAIN IN FULL CONTROL AT START OF THE PERIOD.
SOME FROST OR FREEZE MAY AGAIN OCCUR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OR DAWN
FRIDAY.

STILL DRY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL
DISTURBANCE IN THE WNW FLOW AT MID LEVELS...INCREASING MOISTURE
HERE FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL FEEL THE MAIN FEATURE IS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCY...HAVE NOT GONE LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT IF TRENDS HOLD...WILL PROBABLY END UP THAT WAY.

THEN HAVE POPS LOWERING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK FEATURE IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT...MAY APPROACH ON MONDAY.

FITTING THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS WARM MONTH OF MARCH HAVE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTH OR
NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SWITCHING TO THE EAST TUES AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE TUE 03/27/12
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ006>011-
014>020-027>032.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005-013-
024>026.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/TAX
NEAR TERM...TAX
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

415 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT/
WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
RAPIDLY FALLING APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN REACHES OF THE
CWA. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END.
WINDS WILL BE WELL MIXED BEHIND THE FRONT AS THEY TURN MORE WESTERLY
THIS MORNING. WITH 925 MB WINDS AROUND 40 KT...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS
TO BE WELL WITHIN WIND ADVISORY LEVEL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE
EXITING SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY
ACROSS THE WEST WHILE THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT
WARMER WITH SOLID MIXING IN PLACE.

THE ADDITIONAL CONCERN WITH THE STRONG WINDS TODAY WILL BE IN
REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER. MIXED DEWPOINTS WILL BE ESPECIALLY LOW
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH TODAY AS DRY AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH. EXPECT THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
IN THESE AREAS WHILE THE EAST CENTRAL SD...SW MN AND NORTHERN IA
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT LEVEL. NO DOUBT THAT
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME TODAY...HOWEVER HAVE CHOSEN TO
DROP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH MN AND OUR EASTERN IA ZONE WHERE
HUMIDITY WILL NOT REACH RED FLAG LEVEL BUT WILL PLACE A STRONGLY
WORDED HEADLINE ABOUT CONCERNS. ELSEWHERE...THE RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A RETURN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MAKES A RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WINDS FLOW TURNS MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY WITH
MUCH LESS FAVORABLE MIXING EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...
EVEN THESE COOLER READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 70.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SERIES OF WAVES
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE WAVE...HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME STORMS NEAR
OUR WESTERN BORDER AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM
FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT BUILDING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT
ON THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS OUR EAST.

WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW RETURN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS PULLS A
WEAK WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WHILE THE ECMWF STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE WITH A
DRIER SCENARIO. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS HINT AT A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
QUITE A BIT FASTER IN BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER IT
IS ALSO STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE SLOWS THE TROUGH AS IT
BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. WITH THESE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES...DID NOT ALTER MUCH FROM THE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ300.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
020>022-031-032.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
090-097-098.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ249.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ255>258.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-050-052>071.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

1016 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012

.AVIATION...06Z TAF FORECAST
STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY EVENING. MVFR CIGS IN -SHRA ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 16Z TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012/

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-
WYOMING BLACK HILLS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CROOK AND WESTON COUNTIES-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WYOMING BLACK HILLS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

1150 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

.AVIATION...
SSE WINDS PUMPING MODESTLY MOISTER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT FOG REMAINS POSSIBLY TOWARD SUNRISE AT KLBB
WITH LESSER CHANCES AT KCDS. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/

UPDATE...
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE
REGION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LARGER AMOUNTS OF CIN
INCREASING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/

JORDAN

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07/99/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1158 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
230 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS...STORM AND
GRADIENT RELATED...TUE/TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
230 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

.AVIATION...THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY
1158 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

THE RAIN AREA HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE TIME
BEING...WITH WIND THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WIND BLOWING AT A GOOD CLIP ALREADY...AND GRADIENT
IS TIGHTENING AS LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO OUR WEST. EXPECT
SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER OPEN TERRAIN OUT NEAR KRST OVERNIGHT. FOR KLSE...SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AS SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...ENHANCED BY
THE VALLEY EFFECT REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE HIGHER SPEEDS ALOFT.
COMBINE THE SPEED CHANGE WITH THE SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST ABOVE 2000 FT
AND FEEL IT IS WARRANTED TO ALERT PILOTS TO THAT WITH WIND SHEAR IN
THE TAF. MODELS AND REGIONAL RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATING AS
MUCH AS 70 KTS AT 2 TO 3 KFT. MORE OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS SKIES CLEAR AND WARMING ALLOWS FOR
DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.

THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TROUGH OR FRONT AS THEY PASS BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z...BUT TOO
LITTLE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....MW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1018 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA IS LARGELY ALOFT...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI. MAIN COLD FRONT IS
STILL WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...CROSSING ABOUT THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF IOWA AT THE MOMENT. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE MADE IT
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND WE SHOULD SEE THESE VALUES
OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MAIN QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE TIMING OF ANY SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST RUC MODEL STARTING TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT IN
FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS AROUND 4-5 PM AS SBCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND
2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC AND HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EVENING HOURS AS BEING THE PRIME TIME
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-55...AND TOWARD MIDNIGHT FURTHER EAST.
HAVE LEFT THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK GOOD...AND HAVE JUST DONE SOME REINTERPOLATION OF THE
HOURLY VALUES.

UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

GEELHART

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY AND WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH CIRRUS HAS OVERSPREAD ALL SITES.
EXPECTING SCATTER CU CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS THE CIRRUS TO
BEGIN TO THIN OUT. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT WEST AND
THEN MOVE TOWARD THE SITES THIS EVENING...STARTING AT 02Z AT PIA.
WILL START WITH A VCTS AT ALL SITES 1HR BEFORE THE 3HR TEMPO GROUP
FOR BEST GUESS AS TO WHEN STORMS WILL BE AT THE SITES. AFTER
STORMS PASS...EXPECT SKIES TO EVENTUALLY CLEAR AT ALL SITES.
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP INTO MVFR RANGES DURING THE
STORMS...BUT SHOULD SEE VIS DECREASE DURING THE RAIN.
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS DURING 24HR FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE WITH GUST TO 23-29KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN EXPECT WIND
SHIFT/FROPA LATE TONIGHT DURING OR JUST AFTER STORMS PASS.

AUTEN

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTS INTO
NEW ENGLAND...WINDS WILL VEER FROM E/SE TO S/SW ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY. THIS WILL USHER A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS BACK INTO
THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO
THE 70S. DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MINNESOTA...PULLING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD ILLINOIS
BY LATE IN THE DAY. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH NAM INDICATING CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
1500J/KG ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z. FURTHER
EAST...INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
CAPPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES
WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL THUS BE CONFINED
TO THE FAR W/NW KILX CWA AFTER 21Z. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER
EAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DUE TO RATHER MEAGER CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND THE OVERALL LACK OF GOOD UPPER SUPPORT...THINK
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LOW. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT.

FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD AND STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. DESPITE
FROPA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE 70S DUE
TO A CONTINUED WESTERLY WIND. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION...RESULTING
IN HIGH TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH A NUMBER OF FAST-MOVING WAVES EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE FIRST WAVE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...PULLING THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY FRONT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WITH BOUNDARY IN
PLACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD BET THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AS ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY RIPPLES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. AFTER THAT...MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONGER WAVE COMES
ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE MAIN
DISAGREEMENT OCCURS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE ON MONDAY...WITH
THE GFS SUGGESTING A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED FEATURE. ECMWF SOLUTION
HAS BEEN VARYING WIDELY FROM RUN-TO-RUN...BUT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE LAST PART OF THE
EXTENDED...WHICH MEANS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
MONDAY.

BARNES

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1016 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNSHINE TODAY AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING MILD SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-MORNING UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REMOVE FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINES AND TO INCREASE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS TODAY.

THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, A
1030MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE 12Z KPIT
SOUNDING INDICATES DEEP SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER QUICKLY
THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
COMBO WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL AID A QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPS
TODAY. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LAMP/HRRR GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO NEAR 60 IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL WV.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST, WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. 4KM NAM SUPPORTS THE
FIRST PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS REACHING EASTERN OHIO NEAR DAYBREAK.
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPS WILL FALL
OFF SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH POSSIBLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT SATELLITE
DATA SHOWS THIS SYSTEM INGESTING MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC.

POST SYSTEM COOL DOWN MAY CAUSE LINGERING CLOUDS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FORECASTED MILD TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD PER RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW POST SYSTEM
NORTHWEST FLOW MAINTAINING CLOUDS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EAST FROM THE
PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE SEASONABLE THURSDAY AND THEN BECOME AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY INTO MONDAY.

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY. MORE MID-CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
28/12Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. POST SYSTEM COOLING MAY CAUSE CEILING RESTRICTIONS TO
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS MAY PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

741 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.

FROPA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME AROUND 06Z GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF
HOURS. PCPN CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012 WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON...MOSTLY FROM MKG TO AZO. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR LAN AND JXN AS CHANCES WILL BE LESS THERE.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
MARINE...93

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1027 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE STEADILY DROPPING...ROUGHLY
2-3F/HR...AROUND THE CWA WITH SEVERAL ASOS LOCATIONS ALREADY
HOVERING AROUND THE 32 DEGREE MARK. STRONG CAA WHICH ACCELERATED
THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES EARLIER TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY BE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU NT...PRESENTING ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR
A FROST OR FREEZE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR AGAIN IN FULL CONTROL AT START OF THE PERIOD.
SOME FROST OR FREEZE MAY AGAIN OCCUR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OR DAWN
FRIDAY.

THEN HAVE POPS LOWERING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK FEATURE IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT...MAY APPROACH ON MONDAY.

FITTING THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS WARM MONTH OF MARCH HAVE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD STEADY WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS NEARING 20KTS AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN MNT AREAS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/TAX
NEAR TERM...50/TAX
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

641 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU NT...PRESENTING ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR
A FROST OR FREEZE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR AGAIN IN FULL CONTROL AT START OF THE PERIOD.
SOME FROST OR FREEZE MAY AGAIN OCCUR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OR DAWN
FRIDAY.

THEN HAVE POPS LOWERING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK FEATURE IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT...MAY APPROACH ON MONDAY.

FITTING THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS WARM MONTH OF MARCH HAVE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD STEADY WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS NEARING 20KTS AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN MNT AREAS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/TAX
NEAR TERM...TAX
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

GEELHART

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE EXISTING TAFS. MAIN FOCUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN PARTS OF WESTERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIME
PERIOD FOR THUNDER ACTIVITY AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE VCTS WITH ABOUT A 3-HOUR
TEMPO PERIOD OF THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SUSTAINED SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL MONITOR AS THE STORMS ACTUALLY
DEVELOP...TO TRY TO REFINE THIS TIME FRAME A LITTLE BETTER. ONCE
THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

GEELHART

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BARNES

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

332 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SFC TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LOW PRESSURE IS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH CNTRL IA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS DOWNSLOPE PROPERTIES INITIALLY REMAINING MILD YET MUCH
DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ADVECTING IN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER PV ANOMALY OVER SRN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK EAST AND WILL BE
OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 00Z. SOME ASSOCIATED KINEMATIC
FORCING WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
WARNING AREA. RUC AND NAM PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP
LOCATED NEAR 750 MB WHICH DOES NOT ERODE UNTIL AFTER 23Z WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL COOLING AND KINEMATICS WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE.
POSSIBLE A STORM OR TWO MAY FIRE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST BUT OVERALL
THE CURRENT INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REALIZED UNTIL IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE.

A FEW SITES NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM MOMENT THOUGH OVERALL
MOST ARE BELOW. HAVE TRIMMED PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY BUT HAVE KEPT
THE NORTH TO KEEP COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING SITES. HAVE MOVED
END TIME UP TO 7 PM WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND MIXING.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TWO PRIMARY SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH IN THIS PERIOD. WEAK RIDGE
APPROACHING THE MO VALLEY PRECEDING SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CURRENT EAST PACIFIC LONG WAVE THROUGH. THIS WAVE SHOULD REACH THE
HIGH PLAINS LATE TOMORROW WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING
RIDGE...WILL INCREASE WARM ADVECTION INTO THE MO VALLEY. THETA-E
ADVECTION ADVANCES INTO SWRN IA COINCIDENT WITH ELEVATED CAPE
GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN NW INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND ERN MN...MODEL 300K SURFACES NEAR INVERSION TOP SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND SATURATION EARLY THU MORNING FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM WHERE BOTH NAM AND GFS DEPICT
1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPES BECOMING UNCAPPED JUST WEST OF MO RIVER
DURING PEAK HEATING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT
THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AIDED BY LARGE SCALE
FORCING WITH WAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MCS TO DEVELOP AND THEN
LIKELY WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. REGARDING
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING EVENT...ELEVATED NATURE AND FAIRLY WEAK
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER EARLY THU SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL. MOST LIKELY SEVERE CHANCES LOOK TO
BE DURING PEAK HEATING TAPPING BETTER 0-6KM SHEAR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHEN AND IF CONVECTION BECOMES SURFACE BASED.

WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHT CHANCES FRI NIGHT
WITH NEXT LARGE SYSTEM IN THE OFFING EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
SUGGESTING FORCING INCREASING SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST SHEAR SEEMS TO REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH AND INSTABILITY IS UNREMARKABLE AT THIS POINT SO DO NOT
SEE ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT. DIRTY NW
FLOW WILL KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TUE. TEMPS
WILL DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THIS...BUT ONLY DOWN TO ABOUT CLIMO. NO
FREEZING TEMPS OR FROST ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAY 7.

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISOLD THUNDERSTORM STILL POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF KOTM THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED. CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS WITH A SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. BREEZY WITH VFR CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...DONAVON
LONG TERM...SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1216 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST TO AROUND 35KTS AT
TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF A STORM OCCURRING AT SPECIFIC TERMINAL SO...ONLY
VCTS MENTIONED IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW RISK THAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. AFTER THE FROPA
THE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO AROUND
10KTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/

UPDATE...
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED DYING SHRA/VIRGA CURRENTLY OVER THE CWFA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS RH H7/H5 RH
PROGS SHOW MID LEVELS DRYING OUT BY 18Z AND RECENT VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLOUDS DISSIPATING ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
NARROW PCPN BAND SO EXPECT MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. THE SUN SHOULD
HELP THE LOW LEVEL MIX OUT TO AT LEAST 850MB WHICH SUPPORTS MID TO
UPPER 70 HIGHS AND WE COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THAN GIVEN THE
STRONG SW WINDS. THERE ARE NO PLANS FOR ANY WIND ADVISORIES THIS
AFTERNOON. SO FAR MOST SITES HAVE REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KFEP...WHOSE 1555Z OB HAD A
SUSTAINED 31 MPH WIND. FEEL THAT ANY ADDITIONAL WINDS OF THIS OR
GREATER MAGNITUDE WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND LOOKING TO THE WEST
IN CENTRAL IA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WINDS ARE REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MIXING SETS IN THIS
AFTERNOON H8 WINDS ARE PROGGED TO DECREASE TO 35-40KTS.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SERN
CWFA. RECENT HRRR RUNS HOLD THE INITIATION OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHILE
THE NAM FCSTS DEVELOP PRECIP IN THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE CAPE. AS
OF 15Z IT APPEARS THE NAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL IA ARE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES TO MOIST SUGGESTING THE MODEL CAPE IS ON THE
HIGH SIDE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH DEWPOINT TRENDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO SEE IF THE LOW 60 MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE REALIZED. THE
SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY LARGE HAIL WITH THE MID
LEVEL DRYING EXPECTED TO OCCUR. ..DLF..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1110 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED DYING SHRA/VIRGA CURRENTLY OVER THE CWFA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS RH H7/H5 RH
PROGS SHOW MID LEVELS DRYING OUT BY 18Z AND RECENT VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLOUDS DISSIPATING ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
NARROW PCPN BAND SO EXPECT MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. THE SUN SHOULD
HELP THE LOW LEVEL MIX OUT TO AT LEAST 850MB WHICH SUPPORTS MID TO
UPPER 70 HIGHS AND WE COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THAN GIVEN THE
STRONG SW WINDS. THERE ARE NO PLANS FOR ANY WIND ADVISORIES THIS
AFTERNOON. SO FAR MOST SITES HAVE REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KFEP...WHOSE 1555Z OB HAD A
SUSTAINED 31 MPH WIND. FEEL THAT ANY ADDITIONAL WINDS OF THIS OR
GREATER MAGNITUDE WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND LOOKING TO THE WEST
IN CENTRAL IA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WINDS ARE REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MIXING SETS IN THIS
AFTERNOON H8 WINDS ARE PROGGED TO DECREASE TO 35-40KTS.

.AVIATION... /ISSUED 719 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS WITH BASES WELL ABOVE 3K AGL UNTIL 00Z ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR MLI-BRL TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-03Z. LOW
COVERAGE STORMS SUGGESTS SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ATTM. SOUTH
WINDS TO INCREASE AND VEER TO SW AT 20 TO 30+ MPH WITH GUSTS AOA 35
MPH POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET OR 00Z. SKIES TO CLEAR WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING BY 03Z ALL TERMINALS BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..NICHOLS..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

310 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF
DRY AIR ALOFT, SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AS CIRRUS BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST, WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. 4KM NAM SUPPORTS THE
FIRST PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS REACHING EASTERN OHIO BY DAYBREAK.
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPS WILL FALL
OFF SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND SWING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA, LIKELY CLEARING EAST BY THE EVENING HOURS.
LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST WITH PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IS MENTIONED FROM
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG
SBCAPE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN AN
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WARMING INTO THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A
GFS/NAM BLEND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. IN THIS PATTERN,
HAVE CHANCE POPS LINGERING ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT, THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. FORECAST LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE
MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FREEZE IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GFS INDICATING A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN FAIRLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW, HAVE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA, HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RELATIVELY DEAMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN SHOULD AT LEAST START THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE CONUS AS TWO SPRAWLING UPPER
LOW CENTERS AND A VERY SUBDUED YET BROAD RIDGE ARCS ACROSS MOST OF
THE CONTINENT. THE END RESULT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY HIGH SPEED FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY...INCLUDING OUR REGION. EMBEDDED IN THIS
FAST FLOW LOOKS TO BE A SYSTEM THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FLAT FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL BE
PREVAILING BY THIS TIME. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...VERY
SUBDUED 250 MB JET COUPLING IS PRESENT ALONG WITH A COMPACT AREA
OF DIFFERENTIAL PVA AHEAD OF THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COMPACT YET IMPRESSIVE OMEGA SIGNATURE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER LIKELY POPS WERE STILL KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST
GIVEN TIMING CHALLENGES IN A FLATTER FLOW PATTERN.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY`S SYSTEM CHARGES EASTWARD...DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION AS FLOW OVER THE
CONUS AGAIN AMPLIFIES GREATLY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AGAIN TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE RESULT IS A SPRAWLING
UPPER RIDGE THAT FIRST BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THEN SHIFTS
EAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. UNDER THE
RIDGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...850 MB TEMPERATURES SOAR TOWARD +15C
WITH INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW THAT BY THEN WILL
HAVE MOVED INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
HAVING GENERALLY SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...AND A FAIRLY WELL-MIXED
PROFILE...MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE
REGION...AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK A BIT. FRIES

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIN CIRRUS HAS BEGUN ITS ADVANCE INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE THEY REACH ANY OF THE SITES...AND RAIN SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
SITES SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WITH BRISK WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...WITH DRY/VFR WEATHER PREVAILING UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. FRIES

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

205 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN TEMP AND DEW POINT.

THE LATEST RUC MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE THE TN/OH VALLEYS WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF
DRY AIR ALOFT, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON.

POST SYSTEM COOL DOWN MAY CAUSE LINGERING CLOUDS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FORECASTED MILD TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD PER RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW POST SYSTEM
NORTHWEST FLOW MAINTAINING CLOUDS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EAST FROM THE
PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE SEASONABLE THURSDAY AND THEN BECOME AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY INTO MONDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY. MORE MID-CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
28/12Z.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

411 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHRTWV/STACKED LO MOVING ENEWD THRU NRN MN ON TOP OF MEAN RDG
OVER THE SE CONUS. PCPN/WARM CONVEYOR BELT WELL E OF THE LO HAS
MOVED E OF THE CWA...BUT LO CLDS LINGER IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST LYR
ASSOCIATED WITH SHARP WAD INVRN DEPICTED ON THE 12Z RAOBS. SKIES ARE
MOCLR OVER MN UNDER THE DRY SLOT/JET SURGE REGION OF THE LO...AND
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S IN THAT AREA. DESPITE
THIS SHARP WAD STABILITY...GUSTY S WINDS UP TO 50 MPH UNDER SHARP
PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE LO AND RETREATING HI PRES OVER SE ONTARIO
HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE...PROMPTING ISSUANCE
OF WIND ADVY. IN FACT...THE 12Z MPX RAOB INDICATED A WIND SPEED OF
61KTS AT 3K FT AGL WITHIN THE STABLE INVRN LYR. THE S WIND OFF THE
RELATIVELY CHILLY LK MI WATERS HAVE ENHANCED THE LLVL STABILITY AND
PREVENTED THE WINDS IN THAT AREA FM BEING AS STRONG AS NEAR LK SUP.
FARTHER TO THE W...DEEP WRAP ARND MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z BISMARCK
RAOB IS MOVING INTO NW NW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINDS/CLD TRENDS AND
PSBL WRAP ARND -SHRA AS MN LO MOVES ACRS NRN LK SUP AND INTO SE
ONTARIO ON WED.

TNGT...SHRTWV/CLOSED LO IN MN ARE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SE ONTARIO
JUST NE OF THE SAULT BY 12Z WED. AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY WITH THE APRCH OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG. SO WL LET THE GOING WIND ADVY
EXPIRE AT 21Z AS SCHEDULED. ALTHOUGH THE EARLY EVNG WL BE PCPN FREE
FOR THE MOST PART UNDER DRY SLOT...MORE CLDS/SCT -SHRA WL ARRIVE FM
THE W AS THE WRAP ARND MSTR ACCOMPANYING THE EWARD MOVING LO PRES
SLIDES INTO THE UPR LKS. STRONG W H925 WINDS UP TO 40-50 KTS ON THE
WRN FLANK OF THE LO WL ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -2C OR -3C OVER THE W BY 12Z...BUT FCST WBLB
ZERO HGT WELL ABV 1K FT SUGS THE PCPN WL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF RA EXCEPT OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W LATE. EXPECT STRONG W
WINDS TO IMPACT THE W LATE AS WELL...WITH WIND GUSTS APRCHG ADVY LVL
AGAIN OVER THE FAR W S OF CMX WHERE THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS
COINCIDES WITH THE INCOMING H85 THERMAL TROF. CONSIDERED EXTENDING
WIND ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW...BUT AXIS OF STRONGER WINDS POINTING
TOWARD THIS EXPOSED AREA DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THERMAL TROFFING/
REDUCED STABILITY THAT WOULD ENHANCE MIXING.

WED...AS THE CLOSED LO TO THE E MOVES FARTHER AWAY...SFC HI PRES RDG
WL BLD INTO THE AREA UNDER RISING H5 AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG IN
THE PLAINS. MRNG -SHRA...MIXED WITH SN PER LOWER WBLB ZERO HGTS AS
H85 TEMPS FALL TO ARND -5C...MAINLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OVER THE
NRN TIER WL DIMINISH WITH TIME UNDER NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/MID LVL
DRYING AND GRDLY MORE ACYC FLOW... BUT FCST SDNGS SUG PLENTY OF LO
CLD WL LINGER...SO TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS. AS THE LO MOVES AWAY AND HI PRES MOVES TOWARD THE AREA...THE
WINDS WL DIMINISH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

WED NIGHT...H925 TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH LK INSTABILITY
TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED
BY VEERING N TO NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE NRLY FAVORED LOCATIONS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IT OVERNIGHT. DID HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHTS LONGER FOR THE
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN NCNTRL UPPER MI...ALTHOUGH THE LOWERING
INVERSION WILL LIMIT CLOUD DEPTH.

THURS SHOULD BE A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER UPPER MI. NE WINDS WILL PULL DRIER AIR INTO
UPPER MI AND LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY OVER THE EAST HALF. FARTHER
WEST...MID CLOUDS WILL BE WORKING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST INTERIOR AWAY FROM
THE LK SUPERIOR INFLUENCE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING AND
HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE...LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. DEWPOINTS ARE THE
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST...AS MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH ML DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO OVER THE ERN CWA. WILL DROP TD VALUES AGAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OVER THE ERN CWA INTO THE UPPER TEENS. MAY NEED TO DROP THEM EVEN
MORE...SINCE MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS VERIFIED FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY.

THURS NIGHT...CLEAR INITIALLY AND WITH THE LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ERN
CWA...SHOULD SEE A QUICK FALL IN TEMPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE THE
TEMPS TO RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TRIED TO SHOW A QUICK DROP IN
THE EVENING...BUT UNSURE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WITH LIMITED
WINDS AND MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS...SO HAVE HELD THEM STEADY. SHOWERS
ENTERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ASSOCIATED WITH H850-700 WAA IN THE EVENING...WHICH THEN
FOCUSES FARTHER S THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH
THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY PUSH E. PTYPE IS TRICKY SINCE IT
WILL BE FALLING AS SNOW...BUT THEN AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT 0C LOOKS
TO SETUP FROM 2-6KFT BEFORE NEAR SFC TEMPS BELOW 2KFT WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS CREATES A SNOW/RAIN MIX SCENARIO AND SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE.
THUS...WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER UPPER MI...WITH BETTER SNOW
CHANCES TO THE NE HALF.

FRI...MODELS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT ON THE BULK OF THE PCPN GOING
S OF THE CWA WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENING AS IT TRIES TO PUSH
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUSING OF THE BETTER H850-700 WAA
FARTHER SE OVER LK MI AND LOWER MI. THEREFORE...HAVE A DIMINISHING
TREND OVER THE ERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LLVL
DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BAY HIGH. SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN
THE MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING WOULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING PCPN
TO RAIN.

EXTENDED /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HPC FOLLOWED A 00Z GFS/ECMWF ENS MEAN FOR DAYS 5-7...SINCE THERE IS
DECENT CONSISTENCY IN THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE WRN CONUS DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LKS FOR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...ALONG WITH H850-700 Q-VECTOR
CONV...SO THINK OVERALL PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS SHIFTING INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. DETERMINISTIC RUNS STILL DIFFERING IN THE
INTENSITY/AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH...WITH THE 00Z GFS MUCH DEEPER
AND THE 00Z ECMWF BROADER AND OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. 12Z GFS
HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF AND WILL FOLLOW THE
HPC SOLN AND HAVE THE BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS ON SUN
SLIDING SE THROUGH THE UPPER MISS VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LKS THROUGH
TUES. BEFORE THAT...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LKS OR SRN ONTARIO...WHICH WOULD HAVE A LARGE AFFECT ON
HIGHS. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLNS GIVE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS FOR
SUN...AS H850 TEMPS RANGE FROM 7-14C. MAY NOT MIX QUITE THAT
HIGH...BUT MIXING TO H900 WOULD STILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S. SO
HAVE BUMPED UP THE EXISTING FORECAST A FEW DEGREES.

HEADING INTO SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUES...AREA WILL BE ON THE
NRN FRINGES OF THE SFC LOW FEATURES. IF THE LOW TRENDS TOWARDS THE
00Z GFS...WILL LIKELY BE DRY...BUT IF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ARE
CORRECT WE/LL HAVE BETTER SHOT OF SEEING PCPN. DON/T SEE ANY REASON
TO GO ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES AND WILL KEEP THE PCPN AS
RAIN WITH THE ABUNDANT WARM AIR REMAINING OVER THE AREA.

AS THIS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...COULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

THE STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SFC ARE MIXING DOWN...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. GUST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT CMX...BUT
IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF GUSTS NEAR 40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD BE EAST OF ALL 3 SITES
BY 05Z...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN W...AND THEN NW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS POSSIBLE /MAINLY AT CMX/. CIGS WILL DROP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AT ALL
SITES...ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUDS. CIGS WILL THEN START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

ALTHOUGH THE GOING S GALES OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP WILL DIMINISH
BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LO PRES IN MN/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT
ARRIVE...A STRONGER W TO NW WIND WILL REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS THE
LO MOVES TO THE E ACROSS LAKE SUP...WITH MORE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
MAINLY THE W AND NCENTRAL AT TIMES INTO WED MORNING WHEN THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR AS WELL WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED MIXING. THE APPROACH
OF A HI PRES RIDGE AND WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS BY WED AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WED NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
DIMINISHING WINDS AS THEY BACK TO THE NE. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY
BELOW 20KTS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001>006-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266.

GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
/4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ241-242-263.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ248>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC/SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

114 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THE MAIN WEATHER STORY...

LIKE GFS AND HRRR TREND OF ISOLATED STORMS WEST INCREASING TO
SCATTERED AS THE AREA MOVES EAST. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 50-60KT LOW LEVEL
JET ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE RAPID
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND MUCAPE AFTER 21Z WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
03Z ALONG THE COAST AND 09Z FOR THE EAST COUNTIES.

SPC HAS US IN GENERAL THUNDER WITH A FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND RESULTING SHEAR SUPPORT
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ANY GOOD LOW-TOP SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCAL 40 KT WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AS THE
FRONT PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH BEST THREAT
KBTL...KLAN...KJXN. LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 45KTS POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CORE OF 50 KT WINDS ABOVE 2,500 FT THROUGH
LATE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIG KGRR TO KLAN ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT...TOPS 5,000 FT. ISOLATED SFC WIND GUSTS 30 KTS WITH LGT/MDT
CHOP FROM SURFACE TO 5,000 FT ABOVE GROUND IN WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

CONFIDENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS DOWN A BIT AND DROPPED TO SCA
FOR THREE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES. STILL EXPECT MARGINAL SOUTH GALES
NEAR TIME COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ847>849.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>846.

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM....OSTUNO
AVIATION...COBB
MARINE...COBB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1204 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

A WARMING AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
THREAT OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THE MAIN WEATHER STORY...

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

LOCAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CORE OF 50 KT WINDS ABOVE 2,500 FT THIS
EVENING.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

CONFIDENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS DOWN A BIT AND DROPPED TO SCA
FOR THREE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES. STILL EXPECT MARGINAL SOUTH GALES
NEAR TIME COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ847>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>846.

SYNOPSIS...COBB
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM....OSTUNO
AVIATION...COBB
MARINE...COBB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

1254 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU NT...PRESENTING ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR
A FROST OR FREEZE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WENT WITH HPC THINKING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRAYED SOME
FROM THEIR THINKING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...DUE TO HIGH
INCERTAINTY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CHARGE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. BECAUSE
OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD STEADY WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS NEARING 20KTS AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN MNT AREAS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50/TAX
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

435 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS
WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME THIN CI
WHICH IS RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE OPAQUE SKY COVER. MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. A TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA...AND
THESE AREAS MAY NEED TO HAVE TD/S ADJUSTED UP AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
SKY COVER ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ONLY A FEW CONTRAILS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED A
GATHERING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE GA COAST. A FEW MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NW
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC AND LAMP MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM THIS
SOLUTION...KEEPING THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS GA. I WILL USE
A COMPROMISE IN THE FORECAST...INDICATING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BY SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE L40S ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.

WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ORIENTED SW TO NE...WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY AND WV DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE...PLACING THE CWA WITHIN A 4-6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE TEENS
GUSTING INTO THE L20S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADILY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...PEAKING IN THE MID TO U70S EAST OF THE MTNS AND WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 50 DEGREES AND RH
VALUES SHOULD FALL BELOW 40 PERCENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT H85 FLOW WILL BECOME NEARLY DUE WEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 30
KTS...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT. CIN VALUES MAY CONTINUE TO RANGE ABOVE 40 J/KG EAST OF
THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
FLOW...POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LITTLE TO NO CHC EAST.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. BEST QG FORCING REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW DUE TO W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE MTNS AS WELL.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGH CHC POP FOR THE WRN MTNS TAPERING OFF TO
LOW CHC BLUE RIDGE. ALLOWED A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWFA DURING THE EVENING GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SOME WEAK FORCING. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC OVER THE PIEDMONT IS LOW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OVER THE MTNS AND NRN
TIER GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR. ANY CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY END LATE WED NITE OR EARLY THU MORN WITH CLEARING
SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU NITE THEN SLIDES EAST FRI AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES BY TO OUR NW. THIS AND THE DEVELOPING SWLY
FLOW SHUD BE ENUF FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER...NO PRECIP
EXPECTED FOR NOW. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED NITE FALL
TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE THU NITE. HIGHS THU 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE CLEARING SKIES AND DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY OVER THE MTNS FRI AND FALL AROUND 5 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY NEXT TUESDAY. LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
SOME DEGREE OF UPPER FORCING WILL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SO I KEPT POPS IN THE 30S
SAT/SUN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS MONDAY
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS IN/KY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SE INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MON/EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...I MENTIONED POPS ONLY IN THE 20S FOR MON NIGHT /TUES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S AND SOME 80S
THROUGH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...ONLY A FEW CONTRAILS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC. AREAS ACROSS THE GA COAST HAS BEEN
GATHERING MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. NAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE GA COASTAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...LATEST
LAV GUIDANCE AND RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES LESS POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. I WILL INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT KAND BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TO REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT SE TO SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NW EARLY THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN POSSIBLE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE WED AND
INTO THURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

342 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKY COVER ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ONLY A FEW CONTRAILS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED A
GATHERING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE GA COAST. A FEW MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NW
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC AND LAMP MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM THIS
SOLUTION...KEEPING THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS GA. I WILL USE
A COMPROMISE IN THE FORECAST...INDICATING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BY SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE L40S ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...ONLY A FEW CONTRAILS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC. AREAS ACROSS THE GA COAST HAS BEEN
GATHERING MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. NAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE GA COASTAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...LATEST
LAV GUIDANCE AND RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES LESS POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. I WILL INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT KAND BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TO REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT SE TO SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

327 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY NEXT TUESDAY. LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SOUTHEASTERN SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND SOME
DEGREE OF UPPER FORCING WILL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SO I KEPT POPS IN THE 30S
SAT/SUN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS MONDAY
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS IN/KY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SE INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MON/EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...I MENTIONED POPS ONLY IN THE 20S FOR MON NIGHT /TUES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S AND SOME 80S
THROUGH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

259 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY NEXT TUESDAY. LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SOUTHEASTERN SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH BY SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND SOME
DEGREE OF UPPER FORCING WILL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO I KEPT POPS IN THE
30S DURING THE PERIOD. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING A COLD
FRONT SE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. I KEPT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH POPS INCREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY MON
NIGHT /TUES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S AND
SOME 80S THROUGH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...ONLY A FEW CONTRAILS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC. AREAS ACROSS THE GA COAST HAS BEEN
GATHERING MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. NAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE GA COASTAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...LATEST
LAV GUIDANCE AND RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES LESS POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. I WILL INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT KAND BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TO REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT SE TO SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

158 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
THINNING HIGH CLOUDS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY DRY LLVL PROFILE...WITH SEVERAL DEGREE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT THE BASE OF A H9 INVERSION...RESULTING IN
LOW CHCS FOR CONVECTIVE CU. BASED ON OBS AND LAV GUIDANCE...I WILL
WARM HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...INDICATING HIGHS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. AFTERNOON RH VALUES EAST OF THE MTNS MAY
FALL TO AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

AS OF 5 AM EDT...NEAR TERM FCST ON TRACK PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
ALL METARS SHOWING CLR SKIES WITH NO HIGH CLOUDS AND NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR 2 BASED ON THE OVERALL
SLOWER DECOUPLING SO FAR THIS EVENING/MORNING AND THE MOST RECENT
ADJMAV GUIDANCE THAT IS WARMER. SO...THE FROST POTENTIAL IS LOOKING
LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL MIGHT SEE SOME PATCHY AREAS
OVER THE SHELTERED NC MT VALLEYS...BUT THEY LIKELY WONT GET COLD
ENOUGH AND/OR MOIST ENOUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 2 AM EDT...CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY TO OUR DOORSTEP. THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST SE OF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z WED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND FROM
NELY TO EASTERLY AND THEN SELY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY WED AS
THE HIGH MOVES SE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS AS WE SPEAK WITH DEWPTS BEGINNING TO DROP AS
EXPECTED. FROST POTENTIAL THIS MORNING IS STILL LOOKING PRETTY
MEAGER FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS THAT MIGHT SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST WOULD BE SOME OF THE SHELTERED MT VALLEYS OVER NC.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO POPS THRU THE
PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH WED MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW INCREASES AND THE BNDY
LAYER MOISTENS.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT RANGE IS THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY DOWN
FROM THE N EARLY THURSDAY. THE WAY IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE UPPER FORCING WILL MOVE PAST TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...ALTHO SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE IS FCST TO MOVE DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
LESS OF A DEEP MOISTURE RIBBON ALONG THE FRONT...AND CONSEQUENTLY
DEVELOP LESS IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT TREND TOWARD DELAYING THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...
SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE PUT OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WERE
LIMITED TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS EXTENDED DOWN
OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AND NRN UPSTATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND THINK THAT SHOULD SUFFICE AS A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY
FLOW AT 850MB IS GENERALLY ANATHEMA TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IT
WILL PROBABLY TAKE SOME BAND OF CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO GET A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP OR SURVIVE. THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NC MTNS...ESPECIALLY ON THE TN BORDER...AS
STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU LATE IN THE DAY AND REACH
THE MTNS BEFORE DYING. THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS SHEAR INCREASES NWD TOWARD VIRGINIA...
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER
INDICATION THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP E OF THE MTNS. THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL GRADUALLY SINK S EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND
AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE TN BORDER WHERE A
BRIEF NW FLOW UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN BY MIDDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY...AS DOES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. TEMPS FOLLOW A GUIDANCE BLEND...STILL ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE THE GFS/MAV WAS
FAVORED WITH ITS PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...FEW CHANGES ARE NECESSARY FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE. THE LATEST GFS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OUR CURRENT
FORECAST OF A CHANCE OF PRECIP STARTING SATURDAY AS MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTION INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT. THE
FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY...SO THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS LOOK WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SOME OF THE MIN TEMPS TO INCREASE THE N TO S
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...ONLY A FEW CONTRAILS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC. AREAS ACROSS THE GA COAST HAS BEEN
GATHERING MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. NAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE GA COASTAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...LATEST
LAV GUIDANCE AND RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES LESS POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. I WILL INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT KAND BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TO REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT SE TO SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1256 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT/
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER ARE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE UPDATE. LATEST
NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHT LOW WIND BIAS AGAIN...AND PREFER RUC
WINDS WHICH MATCH UP A BIT BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
SOMEWHAT MIXED SIGNALS WITH NAM COMING IN A TOUCH COOLER WITH OFF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND 15Z RUC JUST RECENTLY WARMER. DID END UP
TAKING A COUPLE DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY...AND EXPECT WILL
GET TO NEAR THE MAX BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALREADY REFLECT
MIXING TOWARD 850 HPA...AND DO GET COOLING OF OFF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO SUGGEST A LONG TERM NEAR MAX
TRACE. THE COOLING ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP A STRONG TIE TO THE FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE NEAR TOP OF
MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BUT A BIT LESSER
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FOR THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECREASE HEADING TOWARD
MID AFTERNOON...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET THE MID JAMES
VALLEY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OUT OF THE 30S. LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE FOUND THROUGH THE MISSOURI CORRIDOR...
APPROACHING 25 PERCENT. EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE
WITH WINDS...AND WARMER SEASON FUELS STILL TINDER DRY.

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 TODAY. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT/
WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
RAPIDLY FALLING APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN REACHES OF THE
CWA. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END.
WINDS WILL BE WELL MIXED BEHIND THE FRONT AS THEY TURN MORE WESTERLY
THIS MORNING. WITH 925 MB WINDS AROUND 40 KT...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS
TO BE WELL WITHIN WIND ADVISORY LEVEL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE
EXITING SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY
ACROSS THE WEST WHILE THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT
WARMER WITH SOLID MIXING IN PLACE.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ300.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
020>022-031-032.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
090-097-098.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ249.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ255>258.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-050-052>071.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1122 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2012

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. GUSTS UP TO NEAR 45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 TODAY. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH
SUNSET TONIGHT.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ300.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
020>022-031-032.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
090-097-098.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ249.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ255>258.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-050-052>071.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

337 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENT/COMPACT 46 UNIT VORT MAX ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. ANY
VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS FAR SOUTH IS QUITE CHANNELIZED AND LITTLE
CONTRIBUTION TO VERTICAL MOTION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...CORE OF
STRONG 850 JET PEELS EAST THIS EVENING. GUSTS HAVE BEEN NEARING THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES. WILL BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT. SURFACE MOIST AXIS LEANING INTO
CWA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. BEST INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SOUTH PER SPC
MESO ANALYSIS. SOME DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED INTO SRN WI. HOWEVER
BETTER DEW POINTS ARE POOLING TO OUR SOUTH WITH MOIST AXIS GETTING
PINCHED A BIT INTO SW WI. SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD STILL
INITIATE A CELL OR TWO INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CU THUS FAR HAS
BEEN WELL CAPPED BUT WATCHING SW/SC WI IN EXISTING CU FIELD FOR ANY
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT. MAXES LIKELY TO BE REACHED THIS EVENING AS 70S READY TO
SPILL INTO SC WI. SOME MODIFICATION IN THE EAST WITH LOSS OF
HEATING BUT STILL AN EVENING MAX LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING 500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO
MORE RIDGING WITH TIME. SURFACE HIGH ALSO DRAWS CLOSER AS THE DAY
WEARS ON HELPING TO EASE BACK ON THE WINDS A BIT. CU RULE POINTS TO
GREATER COVERAGE CU IN THE NE CWA...PER COMBO OF RH
PROGS...BUFKIT...PROGGD PROXIMITY OF UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

UPPER RIDGING KEEPS THIS PERIOD DRY. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
COLD ADVECTION DROPPING 850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE 0C...WITH 0C OR BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD LEADS TO
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. KEEPING THE AREAS OF FROST IN THE
COLDEST LOCATIONS WITH PATCHY FROST ELSEWHERE.

DRY AIR STREAMS INTO REGION WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH...WITH LOW TO MID 20 DEW POINTS IN THE EAST
AND LOW TO MID 30S WEST. SOME UPWARD MODIFICATION OF 925 MB
TEMPERATURES BRINGS UPPER 50S HIGH IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH LOW
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE FAR EAST NEARER
THE LAKE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SOME TIMING CONCERNS RELATED TO DIFFERING CONFIGURATIONS AMONG
MODELS WITH TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE DIVIDED
POPS THIS PERIOD INTO 6-HOURLY GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE 06Z TO 18Z
FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS MOST LIKELY FOR PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS...AND EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO
MEDIUM.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE KEEPS POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN ZONAL FLOW BUCKLES TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF DEEPENING
WESTERN TROUGH. RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S FOR SATURDAY
AND 70S SUNDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE LAKE AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOW
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING
THE WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

UPPER SYSTEM EITHER CUTS-OFF PER GFS...OR REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE PER
LATEST ECMWF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SO FOLLOWED CONSENSUS BLEND
WHICH BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH NO ALL DAY RAINS...WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...STILL LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY DRY AND VFR FROPA. CONVECTION
ISOLATED AT BEST WITH ANY SVR POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTH PER SWODY1.
MAIN STORY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST 850 JET GRADUALLY
SHIFTING AWAY WITH WESTERLY JET TAKING HOLD POST FROPA. SUBSIDENCE
TAKES HOLD SO EXPECT DECENT MIXING INTO THE EVENING HOURS EVEN AFTER
PEAK MIXING DUE TO INSOLATION. COLD ADVECTION PLUS PROXIMITY TO
FRINGE OF UPPER CYCLONIC SUGGESTS SOME CU DEVELOPMENT FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY IN NE CWA.

.MARINE...ASED ON TRENDS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE GALE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS LINGERING WARM SECTOR SOUTHWEST 850/925 JET MAX
GRADUALLY PEELS EAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ONCE THE
GALE EXPIRES.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

300 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NE OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT NOW CROSSING THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER. NO PRECIP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT SO FAR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MUCH COOLER OVER NE WISCONSIN WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE BIGGEST STORY SO FAR HAS BEEN
THE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH SEEM TO BE PEAKING ABOUT NOW. HAVE SEEN
SEVERAL REPORTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM SHEBOYGAN TO SISTER BAY OF
GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND A FEW REPORTS IN THE 50S AT THE KEWAUNEE AND
ALGOMA MARINE STATIONS. INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. HAVE BEEN TREATING THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A LOCALIZED PHENOMENA...AND USING SPS/S
TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SEE A PRETTY SOLID
STRATO-CU DECK OVER MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS WITHIN A COLDER
AIRMASS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE WIND THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

TONIGHT...OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK
ENE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE SE 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST. WILL
PROBABLY SEE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AM TEMPTED TO PULL OUT POPS TONIGHT GIVEN A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
CU OF LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT UPSTREAM. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST
MINUTE TO LOOK AT THE LATEST TRENDS BEFORE YANKING POPS OUT. SHOULD
SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING WORK ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT BEFORE WRAP AROUND STRATO-CU DIVES IN FROM NW TO SE. DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE UPPER PENINSULA COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER N-C WISCONSIN AS
THE STRATO-CU WORKS INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE UNDER COLD ADVECTION. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL HANG AROUND WITH NW WINDS COLD
ADVECTING THE ENTIRE DAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE UP TO AROUND 800MB SUPPORTS A WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC
STRATO-CU FIELD HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCT LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING
HOURS OVER N-C WISCONSIN. LOOKED INTO SNOW POSSIBILITIES...BUT
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL EXTEND HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE COLD
AIR FOR SNOWFLAKES TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUDS. WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...KNOCKED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE HIGH
TEMPS...WHICH WOULD PLACE THEM INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE
50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY THERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS BY TO THE NORTH AND UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RECORD WARMTH EARLIER THIS MONTH HAS
STARTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME VEGETATION WHICH MAY BE THREATENED
BY THIS FROST OR FREEZE.

THEN A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SOME RATHER
ABRUPT SWINGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. TWO MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGHS
MOVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. THESE
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. UPPER RIDGE SHARPENS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD BRING 60F DEW POINTS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THEN SHARPLY COLDER TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...SO REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN VERY
LATE TONIGHT OR INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LEFT CIGS AT LOW END VFR AT
GRB/ATW FOR NOW. WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT TONIGHT
THROUGH SHOULD ABATE BY MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS TO LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE THEM LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY TO
VFR OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MPC
&&

.MARINE...THOUGH STABILITY WILL BE INCREASING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
LAKESHORE WITH GUSTS MEASURED BETWEEN 45 AND 50 KTS AT KEWAUNEE AND
ALGOMA. SINCE IMPACTS FROM STABILITY HAVE BEEN NON-EXISTENT SO
FAR...WILL EXTEND THE GALE WARNING THROUGH 03Z AFTER COORDINATION
WITH OFFICES TO THE SOUTH. ONCE THE GALE IS OVER...WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
DIMINISH...THOUGH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DUE
LINGERING WAVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
MPC/RDM