Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/26/12
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT SAT MAR 24 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND FURTHER COOL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN
SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES BY TONIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY FOR FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY MIDWEEK FOR
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IN SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CENTRAL COAST AND ADJUSTED POPS UP IN THE EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. COMPLEX LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TROUGH AXIS WAS
INITIALIZED APPROXIMATELY 400 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. AND PICTURES FROM SPACE HAD INDICATED 180 MILE WIDE CLOUD
BAND WITHIN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE LEADING EDGE OVER THE
MONTEREY/SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY BORDER. LATEST RUC INDICATED
DECREASING MID LEVEL STABILITY AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION AND MID LEVEL ASCENDING FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DEFORMATION WILL NUDGE
SOUTHEAST AND RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VENTURA COUNTY LATE IN THE EVENING.
THE FOLLOWING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
CLOSER TO HOME...A 2100 FOOT MARINE LAYER HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO
FORM. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVERNIGHT AND NOW COVER MOST OF
THE COAST SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND WILL LIKELY COVER THE L.A.
VLYS BY DAWN. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE FORMING NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY A LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC RIPPLE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON
THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BUT SKIES WILL THEN BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS
CLOUDS AHEAD OF SUNDAYS STORM STREAM IN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE NORTH OF MORRO BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
MOST NON MOUNTAIN AREAS.
SUNDAY WILL BE WET. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES (EARLY IN THE MORNING SLO
AND SBA COUNTIES...MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON VTA COUNTY...AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON L.A. COUNTY) RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING OVER SLO COUNTY LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS SLO
COUNTY WORKING ITS WAY DOWN TO L.A. COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GOOD JET DYNAMICS...MID LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND
FALLING 500 MB TEMPS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF HELICITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND THERE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE A NUMBER OF WATERSPOUTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM HAS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVING
DIRECTLY OVER SBA COUNTY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IF CORRECT
COULD BE THE BEST CHC FOR TSTMS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF BETWEEN 6500 AND 7500 FEET THIS EVENING
WILL THEN FALL TO BETWEEN 5000 AND 5500 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER LOCALLY TO 4500 FEET BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM .75 TO 1.5 INCHES FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS...WHILE FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD SEE 2-4 INCHES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 8 AND 14 INCHES ARE LIKELY ABOVE 5500
FEET...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 16 INCHES IN FAVORABLE LOCATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE VTA
AND LA MTNS WITH THE VTA WARNING STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND THE LA
WARNING STARTING MID MORNING SUNDAY.
THE 06Z NAM THROWS A FLY INTO THE OINTMENT. IT DEVELOPS A BROAD
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL...IF
TRUE...WILL SEVERELY LIMIT THE RAINFALL. THIS IS THE OUTLIER
FORECAST BUT IT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE AND NEEDS TO WATCHED.
THIS STORM WILL NOT BE A COLD NOR A WINDY AS LAST WEEKS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS AS OPPOSED TO LOW 50S LAST WEEK.
WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE MTNS OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY BUT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD ONLY SEE NON ADVISORY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SOME MORNING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY THE
DAY WILL MOSTLY BE DRY AND COOL.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
UN-EXCITING WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FLAT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA TUESDAY TEMPS WILL
RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE GOOD FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. IT WILL BRING
CLOUDS TO THE ENTIRE AREA AND A DEGREE OR SO OF COOLING. RAINFALL IF
ANY WILL BE UNDER A QUARTER INCH.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RISING HGTS WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE NICEST OF THE
NEXT 7 WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLEAT SKIES.
THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY FRIDAY AS A GULF OF ALASKA STORM MOVES
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL
DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...24/1740Z...
MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT APPROACHES.
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA...BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDS TO ALL TAF SITES WITH MODERATE
RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STEADY RAINFALL IS LOW WITH THE
18Z TAF PACKAGE.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL
OF MVFR DECK AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TONIGHT.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL
OF MVFR DECK AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TONIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 AM PDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND FURTHER COOL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN
SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES BY TONIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY FOR FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY MIDWEEK FOR
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IN SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CENTRAL COAST AND ADJUSTED POPS UP IN THE EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. COMPLEX LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TROUGH AXIS WAS
INITIALIZED APPROXIMATELY 400 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. AND PICTURES FROM SPACE HAD INDICATED 180 MILE WIDE CLOUD
BAND WITHIN THE FRONTAL BOUNDAY WITH THE LEADING EDGE OVER THE
MONTEREY/SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY BORDER. LATEST RUC INDICATED
DECREASING MID LEVEL STABILITY AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION AND MID LEVEL ASCENDING FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE
AFTEROON. THE AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DEFORMATION WILL NUDGE
SOUTHEAST AND RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VENTURA COUNTY LATE IN THE EVENING.
THE FOLLOWING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
CLOSER TO HOME...A 2100 FOOT MARINE LAYER HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO
FORM. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVERNIGHT AND NOW COVER MOST OF
THE COAST SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND WILL LIKELY COVER THE L.A.
VLYS BY DAWN. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE FORMING NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY A LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC RIPPLE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON
THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BUT SKIES WILL THEN BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS
CLOUDS AHEAD OF SUNDAYS STORM STREAM IN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE NORTH OF MORRO BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
MOST NON MOUNTAIN AREAS.
SUNDAY WILL BE WET. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES (EARLY IN THE MORNING SLO
AND SBA COUNTIES...MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON VTA COUNTY...AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON L.A. COUNTY) RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING OVER SLO COUNTY LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS SLO
COUNTY WORKING ITS WAY DOWN TO L.A. COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GOOD JET DYNAMICS...MID LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND
FALLING 500 MB TEMPS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF HELICITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND THERE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE A NUMBER OF WATERSPOUTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM HAS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVING
DIRECTLY OVER SBA COUNTY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IF CORRECT
COULD BE THE BEST CHC FOR TSTMS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF BETWEEN 6500 AND 7500 FEET THIS EVENING
WILL THEN FALL TO BETWEEN 5000 AND 5500 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER LOCALLY TO 4500 FEET BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM .75 TO 1.5 INCHES FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS...WHILE FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD SEE 2-4 INCHES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 8 AND 14 INCHES ARE LIKELY ABOVE 5500
FEET...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 16 INCHES IN FAVORABLE LOCATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE VTA
AND LA MTNS WITH THE VTA WARNING STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND THE LA
WARNING STARTING MID MORNING SUNDAY.
THE 06Z NAM THROWS A FLY INTO THE OINTMENT. IT DEVELOPS A BROAD
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL...IF
TRUE...WILL SEVERELY LIMIT THE RAINFALL. THIS IS THE OUTLIER
FORECAST BUT IT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE AND NEEDS TO WATCHED.
THIS STORM WILL NOT BE A COLD NOR A WINDY AS LAST WEEKS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS AS OPPOSED TO LOW 50S LAST WEEK.
WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE MTNS OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY BUT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD ONLY SEE NON ADVISORY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SOME MORNING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY THE
DAY WILL MOSTLY BE DRY AND COOL.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
UN-EXCITING WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FLAT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA TUESDAY TEMPS WILL
RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE GOOD FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. IT WILL BRING
CLOUDS TO THE ENTIRE AREA AND A DEGREE OR SO OF COOLING. RAINFALL IF
ANY WILL BE UNDER A QUARTER INCH.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RISING HGTS WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE NICEST OF THE
NEXT 7 WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLEAT SKIES.
THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY FRIDAY AS A GULF OF ALASKA STORM MOVES
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL
DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...24/1140Z
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH STRATUS IN RESPECT TO
BURNOFF TIME. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 08Z-10Z TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF. MVFR CIGS
WILL GIVE WAY T VFR CIGS BY THIS AFTERNOON. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS TO STICK AROUND UNTIL NOON. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NO RAIN EXPECTED FOR AREAS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION UNTIL AROUND 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z. THEN RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD EVERYWHERE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. Z LEVEL SHOULD BE AROUND 5.6KFT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF. MVFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO VFR CIGS BY 18-21Z TODAY. WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN
THE DAY. SEA BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY 19-21Z. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND RAIN SHOULD BEGIN BY SUNDAY
18-20Z AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD STAY OF THE SE ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND PERSIST
IN THAT DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS SHIFTING BY SUNDAY
EVENING TO SW.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF. LOW MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z THEN VFR CIGS WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY. SIMILAR TIMING OF SHOWERS AS KLAX BY SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN E TO SE MOST OF SUNDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
659 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF US AND MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT, MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, SHOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EWRD TONIGHT INTO
THE CAROLINAS. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
AND CAUSE A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SW ATTM.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT ALONG WITH
AREAS OF FOG WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP TOO. THE FOG WILL PROBABLY BE
MORE ABUNDANT NEAR THE SHORE...BUT WAS INCLUDED IN ALL AREAS WITH
THIS FCST. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER
INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW OR MID 50S ACROSS
THE DELMARVA TO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN AREAS. WINDS WILL
BE ERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS, HAVE LOWERED
POPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR DATA INDICATES AN INCREASE IN PRECIP
AGAIN AFTER 02 OR 03Z, SO DIDN`T MAKE CHANGES AFTER THAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE OFFSHORE AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AND BRING MORE OF A NERLY THEN NRLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY...A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATE. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH AND EAST MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING. HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SUN BREAK OUT LATE IN THE DAY...I
HAVE GONE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ATTM WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SRN
POCONOS...THIS IS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT THE GUIDANCE TEMPS
HAVE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT ON SUNDAY...MOSTLY NE OR N AT 5 TO
10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL LOW AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWER THREAT. WHILE A DRY COLD FRONT
ON MONDAY WON`T BRING ANY RAIN TO THE REGION, IT WILL PROVIDE A
CHANGE IN AIRMASS. WITH IT`S STRONG CAA AND GUSTY WINDS, MARCH
26TH WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE MARCH 26TH, NOT APRIL OR MAY 26TH. A
SURFACE HIGH, CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO, MONDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SAG INTO THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A LITTLE LESS GRADIENT. THE
HIGH WILL BE ON TOP OF US ON TUESDAY AND WILL MOVE TO THE COAST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT IS GOING TO APPROACH US
FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STRUGGLE TO MOVE THROUGH. WHAT`S
MORE CERTAIN IS THE COLD FRONT, COMING IN FROM THE WEST, THAT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND MAYBE EVEN
SATURDAY.
NO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL
BE CARRIED SUNDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST EARLY, AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. WE`LL SEE MORE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS, SYNONYMOUS OF SPRING. MONDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE
NORMAL (ALTHOUGH THE NAM MOS SAYS OTHERWISE), TUESDAY AROUND NORMAL,
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ABOVE NORMAL, AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
THE REGION WILL SEE SOME 30S NEXT WEEK IN THE MORNING. THE COLDEST
MORNING STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. NOT A GOOD THING FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION/TREES THAT
HAVE GOTTEN OFF TO A TWO TO FOUR WEEK HEAD START THANKS TO WHAT
COULD AMOUNT TO A TOP 3 MARCH TEMP-WISE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY VFR AND MVFR ERLY THIS EVENING. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE DETERIORATION WILL BEGIN LATER THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVE...WITH FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GO IFR IN MOST AREAS
BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, LATEST TRENDS IMPLY THAT THE DETERIORATION
MAY START A BIT LATER THAN EARLIER FCST. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING...SINCE THE SFC/UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NOT BE MOVING THAT FAST. BETTER CONDITIONS WILL
ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY...ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND SFC WINDS
TURN MORE TOWARD THE N OR NW.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME REMNANT POST FRONT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
EAST WINDS HAVE REMAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS ON THE WATERS
TODAY...THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD KEEP WINDS
MOSTLY ERLY TONIGHT. A SCA FLAG WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS MAY GET CLOSE TO 5 FT...WE MAY HAVE TO ISSUE
SCA IF THE SEAS GET OVER 5 FT. LOW CONFID IN THIS ATTM. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN SUN MORNING AS THE SFC PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER NERLY THEN NRLY ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND FOG WILL BE ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
A STRONG COLD FRONT, FROM THE NORTHWEST, IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE COLD ADVECTION.
ISOLATED GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
553 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO ADJUST THE POPS UPWARD SOME ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THIS
APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH THE
INITIATION MOSTLY DRIVEN BY INCREASING WAA ABOVE THE LOWER STABLE
LAYER ALONG WITH SOME PVA ARRIVING. A LAPS SOUNDING NEAR KSBY
INDICATED ABOUT 500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY, BUT THIS IS ALL
ELEVATED. THE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CELLS ARE NOT ALL THAT
TALL, BUT ENOUGH VERTICAL EXTENT TO GENERATE SOME CHARGE
SEPARATION. THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH THE
PLACEMENT IS OFF A BIT. THIS MODEL BRINGS THE ACTIVITY INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
BEFORE WEAKENING IT. THERE IS MOSTLY A BREAK BEHIND IT, THEN THE
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LAPS SOUNDING ALSO HAD A STORM MOTION OF ONLY 10 MPH.
OTHERWISE, AFTER WIDESPREAD RECORD WARMTH YESTERDAY, UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WE GO THROUGH TODAY. OUR
REGION CAN ACTUALLY USE SOME RAIN. A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING FORECAST
TODAY AS THE LARGE CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOWLY ARRIVING IN OUR REGION.
THE FRONT THAT SLID SOUTHWARD YESTERDAY HAS STALLED ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. A PUSH OF DRIER AIR HAS BEEN TRYING TO GET INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER WITH THE MOISTURE REMAINING DEEPER HERE,
AN ONSHORE FLOW, AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING HAS RESULTED IN AN
AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG. SOME OF THE FOG IS DENSE. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM/WRF SHOW A RATHER PRONOUNCED BUT
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH IS HELPING TO TRAP THE
STRATUS. EVEN THIS IS FORECAST TO MIX OUT SOME THIS MORNING. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MAY NOT TRULY EXPAND GIVEN DRIER AIR SITTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WE ARE NOT CERTAIN THE DENSER
PORTIONS OF THE FOG LAST LONGER THIS MORNING, THEREFORE WE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY ATTM AND COVERED IT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WINNING OUT OVERALL TODAY AS HIGHER
BASED CLOUDS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SLOWNESS OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES GIVEN HOW CUT OFF IT
REMAINS TO BE. IN ADDITION, SOME DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA MIGHT ALSO DEFLECT AND DELAY THE SHOWERS
MOSTLY TO OUR WEST FOR AWHILE. THEREFORE, WE TIGHTENED UP THE POPS
SOME MORE WITH A SLOWER INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.
IT APPEARS THAT INCREASING ASCENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW INITIATES A BAND
OF SHOWERS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE INITIAL SPOKE OF SHOWERS THAT
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS. BASED ON
THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION, THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT ANY DEVELOPING INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLACED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE IS ACHIEVED
FIRST ALONG WITH THE START OF SOME COOLING ALOFT. THIS INSTABILITY
HOWEVER SHOULD NOT BE SURFACE BASED.
THE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LOOKS TO BE TIED TO
THE MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF WAA. THIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH AN
EASTWARD EXTENT, BUT THEN BECOME FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH. THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD PROTECT OUR REGION ALONG WITH THE MAIN WAA PUSH
SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH, THEREFORE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO
BE SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE FLOW
OVERALL IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, THEREFORE CELL
MOTION MAY TEND TO BE SLOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE CELLS
PRODUCING LOCAL DOWNPOURS AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH THE PW
VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY USED A MOS BLEND THEN MADE SOME
TWEAKS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION, AND THE MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WAS MENTIONED IN
THE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL ACT TO INITIATE BANDS OF SHOWERS. THE
COVERAGE MAY START TO DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGER LIFT SHIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS COOLING ALOFT TAKES
PLACE, SOME INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND ANY THUNDER SHOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
CLOSE TO THE DELMARVA TOWARD MORNING, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. AS A RESULT, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WHILE SOME FOG WILL BE AROUND, IT
MAY NOT REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES ENOUGH AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST ATTM.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY BLENDED THE GFS/NAM MOS. THE
TEMPERATURES MAY TAKE SOME TIME IN DROPPING ACROSS SOME AREAS FOR
AWHILE TONIGHT GIVEN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY ON
SUNDAY. IT SHOULD SLOWLY PASS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
WE ARE EXPECTING TO BEGIN SUNDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. HOWEVER, AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS
TO MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON SOME DRY AIR MAY BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
ON SUNDAY, THE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST,
KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER STABLE NEAR THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS RATHER TRICKY. DEPENDING UPON
WHERE MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURS AND DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOP, THE LOW
NAM NUMBERS AND THE HIGH GFS NUMBERS ARE BOTH PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW,
WE HAVE SIMPLY GONE WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT, PUSHING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. THE AXIS OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY PASS OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE RECENT STRETCH OF VERY
WARM WEATHER, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THAT LOWS IN THE 30S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S IS NORMAL.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IT APPROACHES, A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE PULLED THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SOCKED IN AT KMIV AND KACY AS AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER STRONG BUT
SHALLOW INVERSION. NOT TO FAR TO THE NORTH, DRIER AIR HAS BEEN
SEEPING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING SOME.
IT IS NOT ALL THAT CLEAR IF THIS IS ABLE TO GET TO KMIV AND KACY
AND UNDERCUT THE FOG. WE FAVORED MORE FOG FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING
THEN INDICATED SOME IMPROVEMENTS BEFORE CONDITIONS LOWER ONCE
AGAIN. OTHERWISE, THE AIR IS A BIT DRIER AT KILG AND THE KPHL
METRO THEREFORE NOT REALLY ANY FOG HOWEVER THE STRATUS HAS BEEN
SLIDING WESTWARD AND HAS MADE IT TO THESE TERMINALS. OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW LONG THIS LINGERS, HOWEVER WE ARE
LEANING TOWARD SOME IMPROVEMENT TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS LOWER ONCE AGAIN. SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS MARYLAND AND
PARTS OF DELAWARE. THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
TERMINALS FOR AWHILE, THEREFORE WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND
ISSUE AMENDMENTS IF THESE LOOK TO IMPACT A TERMINAL EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING TODAY, AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS OVERALL TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY. IT APPEARS THE MAIN PUSH OF SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER AS SOME OF
THE DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST MAY ALSO HELP WITH THE DELAY. THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR STARTING FROM ABOUT MIDDAY
ONWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, ALTHOUGH
THIS MAINLY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH AND WEST OF A KRDG TO KMIV LINE. OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE COVERAGE, THEREFORE NO THUNDER WAS
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. THE SHOWERS SHOULD TEND TO ARRIVE IN A BAND
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK, THEREFORE
THESE COULD BE SLOW MOVERS AND PRODUCE LOCAL DOWNPOURS. WE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE LOWERING VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY
/OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING FOG/. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS, AND THERE COULD BE A LITTLE GUSTINESS FOR A
TIME MAINLY FROM THE KPHL METRO SOUTH AND EAST.
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR TONIGHT AS
SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MOISTURE, SOME FOG
SHOULD ALSO BE AROUND HOWEVER THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE AT
THIS TIME. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY TEND TO SHIFT MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER LOW
INVERSION IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY AND INTO DELAWARE BAY. SOME
DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO UNDERCUT THIS, HOWEVER IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW THIS BEHAVES THROUGH THE MORNING. THE OVERALL FOG
SHOULD IMPROVE THIS MORNING, THEREFORE NO HEADLINE BUT A MENTION
WILL BE CARRIED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. A CLOSED LOW
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT. THIS IS MAINLY THE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS,
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER MAY ALLOW THE
SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FEET MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THIS MAY
END UP BEING MARGINAL AND DUE TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, WE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST ON SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
EARLY ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A WARM FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IT MAY ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE COLD
ADVECTION. ISOLATED GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
628 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2012
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
An interesting mesoscale setup across our area early this evening
that suggests the thunderstorm threat is not completely over for
our land areas. The important feature that we have been tracking
appears to be a surge of low-level moisture that is slowly
propagating to the NNW, and currently arcs from near Lakeland, GA
or Moody AFB, to the northwest side of Tallahassee, to near
Carrabelle in Franklin County. The dewpoint at the TLH airport and
the NWS office have increased about 10-12 degrees in the past hour
and now sit around 66F. The push of low-level moisture has created
a sharp thetae gradient and the boundary is even evident on the
latest TLH radar reflectivity as well as on visible satellite
(with a line of towering cumulus). Winds in the moist air mass
have backed to a S-SSE direction, whereas winds in the drier air
mass are almost due west. This should act to increase low-level
convergence in the next several hours and could provide the
necessary focus for additional thunderstorm development. The RUC
and NAM have been handling this mesoscale feature rather well, and
both indicate QPF in the 00-06z timeframe in our SE areas.
Modifying a 01z RUC forecast sounding for VLD with 77/66 surface
conditions yields about 1500-2000 j/kg of CAPE with very little
CINH for a parcel lifted from near the surface. The other thing to
consider is that deep layer shear will be on the increase in the
next few hours, so any storm that can tap this environment may be
a little more organized than what we saw earlier.
The main message is that thunderstorm potential is not necessarily
over, and we cannot rule out a severe thunderstorm or two prior to
midnight in our southeastern areas.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION (issued at 237 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2012)...
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night)...Cold front associated
with the deep upper low will finally exit the forecast area this
evening. Showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into the
mid-evening hours over the eastern big bend before ending by
midnight. With the latest VWP data showing winds veering
substantially at KVLD, severe threat should be rather low.
A drier airmass will arrive in the wake of the front. This will
allow overnight lows to fall back into the lower to mid 50s for
the next few nights. However, highs will continue to reach the
lower to mid 80s each afternoon. After this evening, no rain is
expected throug Monday night.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through next Saturday)...There is good
consensus between the models that the long term period will remain
rather calm, with a benign weather pattern in place. The northern
stream flow will remain across the northern half of the country
through the period, with a chain of shortwaves forecast to pass
through it. Across the southern part of the country, a mix of
ridging and a zonal flow regime will dominate. As each of the
aforementioned shortwaves pass well north of the local area, they
will have little effect on the local weather, with the exception
of dampening any ridging that is occurring over the southeastern
part of the country. The result of this pattern will be dry and
warm afternoons, with mild evenings. Temperatures are forecast to
climb into the lower to middle 80s each afternoon, with low
temperatures bottoming out in the middle to upper 50s. No
mentionable rain chances exist through the period.
AVIATION (through 18Z Sunday)... A weak cold front was pushing
slowly southeastward across eastern portions of the Tri-State Area
this afternoon. Along and ahead of the front, bands of showers and
isolated thunderstorms continued to develop over southern and
eastern portions of the Big Bend and adjacent coastal waters,
accompanied by MVFR ceilings. The showers and storms will clear
the southeast Big Bend by late tonight as the front pushes south
of the area, and VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder
of the forecast period and beyond. Winds Sunday will be generally
northwest 8 to 12 knots with occasional gusts to around 15 knots.
MARINE...Winds will turn from the west to the northwest overnight
in the wake of a cold front. Wind speeds are expected to remain
just below headline criteria. A very weak pressure gradient for
Monday into Tuesday will keep winds and seas minimal. Easterly
flow will increase by mid-week as high pressure builds along the
eastern seaboard.
FIRE WEATHER...Drier air will be spreading across the Tri-State
Area tonight and Sunday, on the heels of a cold front that will
push south and east of the area later tonight. Relative humidities
are forecast to fall to critical levels across all but the
immediate coastal areas of the eastern Florida Panhandle and Big
Bend, as well as southeast Alabama on Sunday afternoon. Durations
across southeast Alabama are not expected to be met. However,
dispersions across Florida zones are expected to exceed 75, and a
Red Flag Warning will be issued for all but the coastal zones of
Florida. On Monday and Tuesday, relative humidities are expected
to approach or briefly drop below red flag criteria, however
durations are not expected to be met.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 54 81 52 84 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
Panama City 59 79 60 79 61 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 54 80 55 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 53 79 53 82 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 54 79 53 82 54 / 20 0 0 0 0
Cross City 58 81 52 83 53 / 50 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 59 76 57 77 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/
Sunday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-
Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-Washington.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Update...08-Lamers
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
750 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A WARM AND MOIST
AIR MASS BLANKETS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARING-DAWN...OVERNIGHT MSAS AND RUC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION AS 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION SURGES
IN FROM SW GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATED SHOWERS WERE BREAKING OUT IN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...A FEW WERE ALREADY NOTED ACROSS INLAND SE
GEORGIA. MSAS AND RUC MESOANALYSIS BOTH SHOW THAT THE AIR MASS
HAS DESTABILIZED AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYTIME AFTER
SUNRISE.
FORECAST TODAY BLENDED BETWEEN PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS SYNOPTIC
SCALE TRENDS FROM THE 00Z MODEL RUN. OUR REGION CONTINUES TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND
ONGOING TRENDS GIVE NO INDICATION TO SWAY FROM THAT THINKING. TO
BEGIN TODAY...OVERNIGHT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THERE LIKELY
WILL BE AREAS OF INSOLATION ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
WHICH WILL RAPIDLY ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. CUTTING THROUGH OUR
INLAND ZONES IS AN IMPRESSIVE DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH
PWATS E OF I-95 AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND INLAND FROM
THERE FALLING WELL BELOW 1 INCH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FLOURISH ALONG AND SE OF THIS GRADIENT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY 18Z...THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW
HAIL CAPES EXCEEDING 600 J/KG OVER S GEORGIA AND ANOTHER MORE
MORE IMPRESSIVE MAXIMA OVER THE EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
EXTENDING INTO OUR INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES.
THE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH LATE DAY HEIGHT FALLS NOTED FROM THE ESE MOVEMENT
OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY REGION. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLIGHTED BY FAIR LAPSE RATES NEAR -6C AND
FAVORABLE HAIL PARAMETERS PROVIDED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT
TOO FAST TODAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE STEADILY
TO AROUND 40 KT BY LATE DAY...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
ORGANIZATION AND MIXED-MODE CONVECTION.
MODELS SUGGEST THE FIRST ROUND TODAY WILL DEVELOP IN SE GEORGIA
AND DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE ALONG BOUNDARIES NE THROUGH THE COASTAL
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
TSTMS POSSIBLE. TSTMS WITH MORE ROBUST HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE IN A N-S CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE
S OF WEAK SURFACE LOW IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE STORMS
WILL POSE A LATE DAY THREAT TO OUR INLAND ZONES WITH FAIR
CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE WATCHES BY MID AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE RAISED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
CONVECTION. DEEPER MIXED LAYER INLAND SUGGEST SW SURFACE WINDS
COULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NAM SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE COAST THIS EVENING AS STRONG UPPER HEIGHT FALLS KICK IN AND
OUR REGION COMES UNDER A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
IN A 250 MB JET SEGMENT. OTHER MODELS SHIFT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE A BIT QUICKER BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT A SEVERE
RISK CONTINUING UNTIL MIDNIGHT IN RESPECT TO THE AIR MASS IN
PLACE TODAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM.
THE DEEP 500 MB LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHERN SC SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE CENTER PASSING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF CHARLESTON AROUND 18Z.
MOST OF THE MODELS PROG 500 MB TEMPS OF -22C AT 18Z SUNDAY WITH A
FREEZING LEVEL BELOW 7500 FT. A FAIRLY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE.
HOWEVER THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NC COAST TO SPUR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOURS OF PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SC. DUE TO SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SOME SMALL
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. DESPITE THE
COLD ADVECTION...DOWNSLOPING WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
70S.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BUILDING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON MONDAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. A RATHER SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH NEAR 80 TO THE FAR
SW AND LOWER 70S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY. ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE A
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP. BUT DUE TO A RELATIVE LACK OF
MOISTURE WE KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG TO OUR WEST.
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR
FRONT MAY DROP THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE NOT ADDED ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE LATE
WEEK FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION TIMING AND INTENSITY VERY TRICKY ALONG THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR TODAY AND EVEN THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BRUSH THE REGION FROM MID MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN DOWNPOURS. THIS EVENING IT
APPEARS THE BEST BET FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL IMPACT THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA NORTH GIVE INSTABILITY AND LIFT
PROGS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...
A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT W AND SOME LATE NIGHT CLEARING EXPECTED.
WE MAINTAINED SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS NEARING 20 KT AT KCHS AND AT
LEAST TEMPO GUSTS AT TIMES AT KSAV AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT CHS ON
SUNDAY IN ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH SW FLOW SHIFTING W IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE COAST. SEAS
THROUGH TONIGHT 2-4 NEAR SHORE AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.
OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. A BRIEF NORTHEAST WIND SURGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
MORNING BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BUT IT SHOULD BE OF SHORT
DURATION AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS QUICKLY OFFSHORE. THE NEXT SURGE
WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. IN GENERAL WE KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JRL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
432 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A WARM AND MOIST
AIR MASS BLANKETS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRE-DAWN...OVERNIGHT MSAS AND RUC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS MUCH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINED STABILIZED BY THE EARLIER CONVECTION WITH
INSTABILITY GRADIENTS RUNNING ALONG THE CSRA AND ALTAMAHA RIVER
REGIONS BORDERING OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE QUICK TO CHANGE
LATER THIS MORNING BUT UNTIL THEN WE ARE MONITORING FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AND WITH SPOTTY CONVECTIVE RAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL DAYBREAK.
FORECAST TODAY BLENDED BETWEEN PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS SYNOPTIC
SCALE TRENDS FROM THE 00Z MODEL RUN. OUR REGION CONTINUES TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND
ONGOING TRENDS GIVE NO INDICATION TO SWAY FROM THAT THINKING. TO
BEGIN TODAY...OVERNIGHT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THERE LIKELY
WILL BE AREAS OF INSOLATION ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
WHICH WILL RAPIDLY ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. CUTTING THROUGH OUR
INLAND ZONES IS AN IMPRESSIVE DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH
PWATS E OF I-95 AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND INLAND FROM
THERE FALLING WELL BELOW 1 INCH THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FLOURISH ALONG AND SE OF THIS GRADIENT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY 18Z...THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW
HAIL CAPES EXCEEDING 600 J/KG OVER S GEORGIA AND ANOTHER MORE
MORE IMPRESSIVE MAXIMA OVER THE EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS
EXTENDING INTO OUR INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES.
THE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH LATE DAY HEIGHT FALLS NOTED FROM THE ESE MOVEMENT
OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY REGION. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLIGHTED BY FAIR LAPSE RATES NEAR -6C AND
FAVORABLE HAIL PARAMETERS PROVIDED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT
TOO FAST TODAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE STEADILY
TO AROUND 40 KT BY LATE DAY...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
ORGANIZATION AND MIXED-MODE CONVECTION.
MODELS SUGGEST THE FIRST ROUND TODAY WILL DEVELOP IN SE GEORGIA
AND DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE ALONG BOUNDARIES NE THROUGH THE COASTAL
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
TSTMS POSSIBLE. TSTMS WITH MORE ROBUST HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE IN A N-S CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE
S OF WEAK SURFACE LOW IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE STORMS
WILL POSE A LATE DAY THREAT TO OUR INLAND ZONES WITH FAIR
CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE WATCHES BY MID AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE RAISED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
CONVECTION. DEEPER MIXED LAYER INLAND SUGGEST SW SURFACE WINDS
COULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NAM SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE COAST THIS EVENING AS STRONG UPPER HEIGHT FALLS KICK IN AND
OUR REGION COMES UNDER A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
IN A 250 MB JET SEGMENT. OTHER MODELS SHIFT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE A BIT QUICKER BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT A SEVERE
RISK CONTINUING UNTIL MIDNIGHT IN RESPECT TO THE AIR MASS IN
PLACE TODAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM.
THE DEEP 500 MB LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHERN SC SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE CENTER PASSING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF CHARLESTON AROUND 18Z.
MOST OF THE MODELS PROG 500 MB TEMPS OF -22C AT 18Z SUNDAY WITH A
FREEZING LEVEL BELOW 7500 FT. A FAIRLY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRY
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE.
HOWEVER THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NC COAST TO SPUR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOURS OF PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SC. DUE TO SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SOME SMALL
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. DESPITE THE
COLD ADVECTION...DOWNSLOPING WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
70S.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BUILDING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON MONDAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. A RATHER SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH NEAR 80 TO THE FAR
SW AND LOWER 70S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY. ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE A
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP. BUT DUE TO A RELATIVE LACK OF
MOISTURE WE KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG TO OUR WEST.
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR
FRONT MAY DROP THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE NOT ADDED ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE LATE
WEEK FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BREAKING OUT TO THE W OF I-95 AND WILL LIKELY
SKIRT W OF BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SPOTTY
CONVECTIVE RAINS OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY BUT WITH POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ON CURRENT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS...LOWER CONDITIONS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SCATTERED BOUTS OF CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TODAY...AS EARLY AS MID
TO LATE MORNING AND THEN PERHAPS STRONGER CONVECTION LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THE SE SAGGING MID
LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW UPSTREAM. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THESE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN SUBTLETIES IN MODEL
OUTPUT DIFFERENCES. WE HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED VCSH WITH CB MENTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL RADAR TRENDS DICTATE TEMPO OR
PREVAILING GROUPS OF CONVECTION. WE INTRODUCED SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS NEARING 20 KT AT KCHS AND AT LEAST TEMPO GUSTS AT
TIMES AT KSAV AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT CHS ON
SUNDAY IN ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH SW FLOW SHIFTING W IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE COAST. SEAS
THROUGH TONIGHT 2-4 NEAR SHORE AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.
OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. A BRIEF NORTHEAST WIND SURGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
MORNING BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BUT IT SHOULD BE OF SHORT
DURATION AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS QUICKLY OFFSHORE. THE NEXT SURGE
WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. IN GENERAL WE KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JRL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
950 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER WESTERN MN OCCURRING IN ZONE
OF ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE IN 850-700 MB
LAYERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS WARM ADVECTION AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE
INCREASING OVRNGT IN AREAS MAINLY N/NE OF QUAD CITIES. SOME OF THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF HRRR AND RUC BACKUP MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
PCPN COMING INTO NORTH... ALBEIT SLOW ON TRENDS. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ADDED POPS TO AREAS NORTH OF QUAD CITIES OVRNGT AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MON. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR MOVE IN FROM EAST OVRNGT WITH LAKE ENHANCED
FRONTAL ZONE AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE AM BEFORE LIFTING TO
VFR DURING THE AFTN. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR CIGS ESPECIALLY
NEAR MISSISSIPPI RVR LATE TNGT THROUGH MID AM MON ALONG WITH SOME
FOG WITH VSBYS 2-5SM. LIGHT WIND OR NORTH WIND NEAR 5 KTS
EARLY THIS EVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO EAST AND WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS... WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS LATE TNGT THROUGH MON.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATE TNGT AND MON AM ACROSS
MAINLY NE IA INTO NW IL WITH ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION... BUT CHCS
APPEAR TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT KDBQ TERMINAL FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
THE MORNING UA ANALYSIS HAD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A
S/W OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE S/W WAS NOT
EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS AT 18Z HOWEVER THERE
WAS A NICE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
TRAILING NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE 18Z ANALYSIS
SHOWED 70 PLUS TEMPS AS FAR NORTH AS KDBQ AND TEMPS AROUND 60 IN
NORTHEAST IA AND SOURTHEASTERN MN.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS COOL AND SATURATE.
MID CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL WAA. FORCING OVERNIGHT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR OFF LAKE
MI...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED
LAYER WHICH ISN/T FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE. SOME LOW POPS WERE
INCLUDED FOR MONDAY WHEN LOW AND MID LEVEL FGEN SPREADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN CWFA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COLDER THAN WHAT THE REGION HAS EXPERIENCED THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWFA.
IT/S QUESTIONABLE IF THE COLDER AIR WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST CWFA
BY MORNING SO KEPT MINS THERE IN THE LOWER 50S. MONDAY
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL NOT
REBOUND MUCH WITH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS...CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN SHOWERS SO KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ..DLF..
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER...BUT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES TO THEN FOLLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK. RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED.
MONDAY NIGHT...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WITH 850 WINDS PROGGED
FROM 50 TO 70 KTS...IS SHOWN SURGING GULF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THIS IS DIRECTED WELL TO
OUR WEST...THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRAY ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS OVER THE ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO POSSIBLY OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EDGE OF THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO OUR WEST TO WANDER INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO COVER THIS.
OTHERWISE...THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRISK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UNTIL A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE
SURFACE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MORNING...THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
OUT OF THE RIDGE WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S NORTH TO LOWER
50S SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS DEPICT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE
AT OR BELOW 850 MB AND HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EVEN WITH
THE CLOUD COVER...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST. THIS WARMING...COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S IS SHOWN BY THE NAM RESULTING
IN MUCAPES IN THE RANGE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS...COMBINED WITH
30 TO 40 KTS OF SURFACE TO 6 KM SPEED SHEAR WITH VEERING PROFILES...
MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LOW END SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE CURRENT SPC DAY
3 OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER OUR SE COUNTIES. ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTS POPS IN A 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE. THE BACK EDGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE ON-GOING AT 00Z OVER THE FAR EAST AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES GOING THERE INTO TUE EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED INTO
THU. WED NIGHT MAY SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NORTH AS THE
RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE...THE MEN FROM
THE 00Z RUN...INDICATES POCKETS OF MID 30S OVER EAST CENTRAL IA INTO
NW IL. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS TREND...BUT HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH MINS FROM THE UPPER
30S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN SENDING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW THROUGH KS TO CENTRAL IL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW BEYOND AS THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HANDLE ENSUING SHORTWAVES...RESULTING IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THAT
WILL LIKELY BECOME DEFINED IN LATER FORECASTS. ..SHEETS..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
846 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
JUST COMPLETED ANOTHER UPDATE. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND
EXPECTED MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN. ALSO DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL SHIFT
UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT PER THE RUC WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT WIND AND DEWPOINT FIELD...ALTHOUGH NOT AS GOOD ON THE
DEWPOINTS. SO USED IT FOR THE BASIS OF THE UPDATE.
AS A RESULT OF A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG ONCE AGAIN TO AREAS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE THICK
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO BECOME
DENSE BUT THIS WILL NEED CONTINUED MONITORING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
JUST COMPLETED A MINOR UPDATE. A GREAT DEAL OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. MOISTURE PROGS WOULD INDICATE THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
STAY AS THICK AS IT IS NOW OR GET THICKER. SO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
DATA...EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG AREA TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EVEN
THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE GREATER THAN LAST NIGHT...
THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE/VEERING OF THE WIND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND CHANCES THAT IT
WILL BE DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH TRENDS ON THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. PRIMARY QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER FOG WILL
REFORM ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING ANYTHING BUT A
CONSENSUS WITH RUC MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT EVENING
SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SITUATION CLOSELY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY WITH A
MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION ON
THAT POTENTIAL. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MONDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
BUT DOES NOT REALLY MIX EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER UNTIL LATE MONDAY
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD.
IN ADDITION TO FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS...ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STRONGEST DYNAMIC REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE OBSERVED
FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF AN UPDRAFT CAN DEVELOP AND BE SUSTAINED. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN
ANTICIPATED 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AS PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
DRY CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUATION OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS
A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
CONTINUED FOCUS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S CONTINUING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/GEFS MEAN AND EC
DEPICTING STARKLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP
A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE THE
EC SUPPORTS A RIDGE OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA AND HOLDS THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KMCK OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW SO HAVE PLACED 5SM IN TAF FROM 10-15Z. ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AS A LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS COULD REACH UP TO 35-40 KNOTS
AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE THREE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY. LEFT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
INTACT FOR THE FIRST TIER OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE WILL MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON. OPTED TO CANCEL THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST AS
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW THAT CRITERIA WOULD BE MET IN THESE
LOCATIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RECORDS ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION ON MONDAY. ALSO STILL WELL ON TRACK FOR THE WARMEST
MARCH ON RECORD AT GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK. HERE ARE
THE LATEST FIGURES THROUGH MARCH 24.
GOODLAND - 48.8 DEGREES SET IN 1907 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 48.6
BURLINGTON - 47.7 DEGREES SET IN 1986 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 47.1
MCCOOK - 48.3 DEGREES SET IN 2007 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 49.9
HILL CITY - 54.3 DEGREES SET IN 1910 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 51.1
WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT
GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK WILL SEE THE WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD. IT REMAINS TO BE SEE IF HILL CITY WILL BREAK THE RECORD AS
WELL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ252>254.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...PMM/FOLTZ
LONG TERM....FOLTZ
AVIATION...BAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
552 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
JUST COMPLETED A MINOR UPDATE. A GREAT DEAL OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. MOISTURE PROGS WOULD INDICATE THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
STAY AS THICK AS IT IS NOW OR GET THICKER. SO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
DATA...EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG AREA TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EVEN
THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE GREATER THAN LAST NIGHT...
THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE/VEERING OF THE WIND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND CHANCES THAT IT
WILL BE DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH TRENDS ON THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. PRIMARY QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER FOG WILL
REFORM ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING ANYTHING BUT A
CONSENSUS WITH RUC MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT EVENING
SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SITUATION CLOSELY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY WITH A
MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION ON
THAT POTENTIAL. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MONDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
BUT DOES NOT REALLY MIX EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER UNTIL LATE MONDAY
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD.
IN ADDITION TO FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS...ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STRONGEST DYNAMIC REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE OBSERVED
FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF AN UPDRAFT CAN DEVELOP AND BE SUSTAINED. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN
ANTICIPATED 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AS PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
DRY CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUATION OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS
A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
CONTINUED FOCUS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S CONTINUING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/GEFS MEAN AND EC
DEPICTING STARKLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP
A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE THE
EC SUPPORTS A RIDGE OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA AND HOLDS THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KMCK OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW SO HAVE PLACED 5SM IN TAF FROM 10-15Z. ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AS A LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS COULD REACH UP TO 35-40 KNOTS
AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE THREE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY. LEFT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
INTACT FOR THE FIRST TIER OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE WILL MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON. OPTED TO CANCEL THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST AS
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW THAT CRITERIA WOULD BE MET IN THESE
LOCATIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RECORDS ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION ON MONDAY. ALSO STILL WELL ON TRACK FOR THE WARMEST
MARCH ON RECORD AT GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK. HERE ARE
THE LATEST FIGURES THROUGH MARCH 24.
GOODLAND - 48.8 DEGREES SET IN 1907 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 48.6
BURLINGTON - 47.7 DEGREES SET IN 1986 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 47.1
MCCOOK - 48.3 DEGREES SET IN 2007 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 49.9
HILL CITY - 54.3 DEGREES SET IN 1910 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 51.1
WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT
GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK WILL SEE THE WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD. IT REMAINS TO BE SEE IF HILL CITY WILL BREAK THE RECORD AS
WELL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ252>254.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...PMM/FOLTZ
LONG TERM....FOLTZ
AVIATION...BAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
520 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. PRIMARY QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER FOG WILL
REFORM ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING ANYTHING BUT A
CONSENSUS WITH RUC MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT EVENING
SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SITUATION CLOSELY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY WITH A
MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION ON
THAT POTENTIAL. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MONDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
BUT DOES NOT REALLY MIX EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER UNTIL LATE MONDAY
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD.
IN ADDITION TO FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS...ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STRONGEST DYNAMIC REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE OBSERVED
FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF AN UPDRAFT CAN DEVELOP AND BE SUSTAINED. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN
ANTICIPATED 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AS PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
DRY CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUATION OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS
A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
CONTINUED FOCUS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S CONTINUING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/GEFS MEAN AND EC
DEPICTING STARKLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP
A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE THE
EC SUPPORTS A RIDGE OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA AND HOLDS THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KMCK OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW SO HAVE PLACED 5SM IN TAF FROM 10-15Z. ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AS A LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS COULD REACH UP TO 35-40 KNOTS
AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE THREE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY. LEFT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
INTACT FOR THE FIRST TIER OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE WILL MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON. OPTED TO CANCEL THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST AS
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW THAT CRITERIA WOULD BE MET IN THESE
LOCATIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RECORDS ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION ON MONDAY. ALSO STILL WELL ON TRACK FOR THE WARMEST
MARCH ON RECORD AT GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK. HERE ARE
THE LATEST FIGURES THROUGH MARCH 24.
GOODLAND - 48.8 DEGREES SET IN 1907 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 48.6
BURLINGTON - 47.7 DEGREES SET IN 1986 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 47.1
MCCOOK - 48.3 DEGREES SET IN 2007 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 49.9
HILL CITY - 54.3 DEGREES SET IN 1910 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 51.1
WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT
GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK WILL SEE THE WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD. IT REMAINS TO BE SEE IF HILL CITY WILL BREAK THE RECORD AS
WELL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ252>254.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PMM
SHORT TERM...PMM/FOLTZ
LONG TERM....FOLTZ
AVIATION...BAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
CLOUD DECK AROUND 4K AGL FEET CURRENTLY ADVECTING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
DECK WILL CLEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE EXPECT UPSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
RUC GUIDANCE. HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS PER LATEST
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
730 PM EDT...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION FROM THE NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE
IS HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS THERE WILL BE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
LOW CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA...AND LATEST NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE
SHOW CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 850 MB TO BE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEING THE RESULT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 23Z. THIS IS CURRENTLY WELL DEPICTED IN
NDFD. ONLY SOME MINOR NDFD UPDATES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT
GIVING WAY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE TIP OF FAR EAST
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A TSTORM THIS FAR WEST SO REMOVED THAT MENTION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT KEEPING A
LIGHT BREEZE BLOWING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE DRIZZLE. ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSOLVE BY
MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ACCOMPANIED BY A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 20S OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THERE IS A CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THIS
DRY AIR AND DROP LOW ENOUGH TO THREATEN A FROST OR FREEZE FOR SOME
AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND POINT TO THERE BEING JUST ENOUGH
WIND TO KEEP ANY FROST FORMATION ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE
DEEPEST VALLEYS BASICALLY NORTH AND EAST OF JKL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON TUESDAY BUT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY...VARYING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM
MOS AT ANY GIVEN POINT. TEND TO AGREE MORE WITH THE GFS NUMBERS WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY GOOD CONTINUITY THRU MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE RATHER SHARPLY ON FRIDAY WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO THE LESS EXTREME SOLUTION OF THE GFS
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE DETAILS TOWARDS THE
TAIL END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS RATHER LOW.
VORTEX CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CA/OR COAST IS EXPECTED
TO SEND A DECENT SHORT WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT TO START
THE PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTION LOOKS TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO ERN KY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL ADVERTISED IN FCST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE
AREA TO WARRANT CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN...WOULD PREFER TO GO MOSTLY QUIET
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL SETTLE FOR A GENTLE NUDGE IN THAT
DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF BENIGN
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY...AT WHICH POINT THE MODELS BEGIN PARTING
WAYS WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. REGARDLESS OF
THEIR RESPECTIVE DIFFERENCES...ANY OF THE RECENT OFFINGS FROM THE
GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS CAN BE OBTAINED.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO CONTINUE
FOLLOWING THE ABOVE NORMAL TREND...WITH TEMPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD
STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMO BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ONE NOTE OF CONCERN IS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHERE AGAIN...MODELS POINT TOWARDS RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S THROUGHOUT OUR NERN VALLEYS. HAVE STRAYED TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE
OF THE MOS LOWS FOR NOW AND...GIVEN THE EVOLVING UNCERTAINTY JUST
BEYOND THIS WINDOW...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE
NUMBERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE MOVEMENT OF LOW
CLOUD INTO THE AREA OR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 2330Z. WITH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. ALSO...WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB AND NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO LOOK FOR LOW
CLOUD TO DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO
OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AFFECTING THE TAF
SITES AFTER 04Z. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH 12Z...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING AND SKY COVER SCATTERING OUT
ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
800 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
730 PM EDT...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION FROM THE NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE
IS HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS THERE WILL BE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
LOW CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA...AND LATEST NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE
SHOW CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 850 MB TO BE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEING THE RESULT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 23Z. THIS IS CURRENTLY WELL DEPICTED IN
NDFD. ONLY SOME MINOR NDFD UPDATES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT
GIVING WAY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE TIP OF FAR EAST
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A TSTORM THIS FAR WEST SO REMOVED THAT MENTION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT KEEPING A
LIGHT BREEZE BLOWING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE DRIZZLE. ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSOLVE BY
MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ACCOMPANIED BY A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 20S OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THERE IS A CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THIS
DRY AIR AND DROP LOW ENOUGH TO THREATEN A FROST OR FREEZE FOR SOME
AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND POINT TO THERE BEING JUST ENOUGH
WIND TO KEEP ANY FROST FORMATION ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE
DEEPEST VALLEYS BASICALLY NORTH AND EAST OF JKL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON TUESDAY BUT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY...VARYING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM
MOS AT ANY GIVEN POINT. TEND TO AGREE MORE WITH THE GFS NUMBERS WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY GOOD CONTINUITY THRU MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE RATHER SHARPLY ON FRIDAY WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO THE LESS EXTREME SOLUTION OF THE GFS
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE DETAILS TOWARDS THE
TAIL END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS RATHER LOW.
VORTEX CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CA/OR COAST IS EXPECTED
TO SEND A DECENT SHORT WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT TO START
THE PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTION LOOKS TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO ERN KY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL ADVERTISED IN FCST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE
AREA TO WARRANT CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN...WOULD PREFER TO GO MOSTLY QUIET
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL SETTLE FOR A GENTLE NUDGE IN THAT
DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF BENIGN
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY...AT WHICH POINT THE MODELS BEGIN PARTING
WAYS WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. REGARDLESS OF
THEIR RESPECTIVE DIFFERENCES...ANY OF THE RECENT OFFINGS FROM THE
GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS CAN BE OBTAINED.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO CONTINUE
FOLLOWING THE ABOVE NORMAL TREND...WITH TEMPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD
STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMO BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ONE NOTE OF CONCERN IS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHERE AGAIN...MODELS POINT TOWARDS RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S THROUGHOUT OUR NERN VALLEYS. HAVE STRAYED TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE
OF THE MOS LOWS FOR NOW AND...GIVEN THE EVOLVING UNCERTAINTY JUST
BEYOND THIS WINDOW...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE
NUMBERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE MOVEMENT OF LOW
CLOUD INTO THE AREA OR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 2330Z. WITH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. ALSO...WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB AND NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO LOOK FOR LOW
CLOUD TO DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO
OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AFFECTING THE TAF
SITES AFTER 04Z. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH 12Z...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING AND SKY COVER SCATTERING OUT
ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN KY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET
AND AS THE LOW PUSHES PAST OUR AREA TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. FIRST
BAND OR ROUND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL FORM ALONG CONVERGENT ZONES ROTATING IN PINWHEEL FASHION
AROUND THE PARENT LOW. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY TAKING AIM FOR AND SHOULD AFFECT DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDER IS STILL A DECENT BET AS GOOD SFC
HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BUMPED TEMPS UP
SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST WHERE AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS ALREADY ALLOWED TEMPS
TO SHOOT UP CLOSE TO FORECASTED HIGHS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL PICK BACK
UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IL AND WESTERN KY TRACKS ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. REGIONAL SAT ALSO
SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP STEEPEN UP THOSE
BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AS MID LEVELS COOL. SO A FEW STRONG
STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED POPS AND SKY
COVER FOR LATEST TRENDS. TEMPS WERE NOT TOO BAD SO ONLY SOME MINOR
TWEAKS THERE. EXPECT DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL FILL BACK IN BREAKS WITH
TIME. WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...DID ADJUST WEATHER GRIDS TO INTRODUCE A MORE
DIURNAL FLAVOR TO ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
HOURLY POPS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR CATEGORICAL COVERAGE
ONGOING AND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IN THE KY/WV AND VA TRI STATE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR WEST AS A
MIDDLESBORO TO JKL TO ELLIOTT COUNTY LINE OR SO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BEFORE BLENDING INTO POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT
REFLECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSRA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARS THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT CURVES WERE ALSO FRESHENED UP BASED ON
RECENT OBS. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH A FRESHENED UP
ZFP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 08Z HAS THE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 500MB WAVE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED CUT OFF LOW MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. LOOKING
AT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OBS...LOOKING LIKE ALL THE INSTABILITY
HAS BEEN TAPPED OUT EAST AS ONLY A FEW CELLS SEEM TO BE LEFT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE LINE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES SO HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE ZONES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND RUC AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE ALL DAY TODAY AS THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST.
THINKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER 500MB WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW
AGAIN AND THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AND AS SUCH...RAMPED UP POPS TO GOOD
CHANCES AND ALSO WENT WITH COVERAGE RATHER THAN PROBABILITY. ALSO THE
RAPID STABILIZATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS LEADS TO FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE VALLEYS AND SO PUT FOG INTO THE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO WILL RAMP
DOWN THE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...THE
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US...WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. INITIALLY
ON MONDAY...RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS INDICATE THAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY WHILE THE SOUTHERN END OF A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
NOSING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MON NIGHT
AND INTO TUE....WHILE THE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT ON OFF TO
THE EAST ON TUE. AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...A WARM
FRONT OR SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUE EVENING AND NIGHT WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THEN TRACKING NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON WED INTO WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND
APPALACHIAN REGION AND LIKELY REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY COMES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRACKS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES EAST A BIT QUICKER AND IS
WEAKER WITH THE LATE WEEK RIDGING. DURING THIS PERIOD OF GREATER
UNCERTAINTY...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF.
A SFC LOW SHOULD FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
FROM MON TO TUE...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AND THEN TRACKING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON WED WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTING THIS FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WED
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH I HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME 10 POPS WHICH ARE PART OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON TUE AFTERNOON AS THE PAST COUPLE OF ECMWF
RUNS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT FEATURE ON
TUE...THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE PERIOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
COME ON WED INTO WED EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL ON WED JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY BE
IN THE 40S OR EVEN THE 50S...WITH ONE EXCEPTION...MONDAY NIGHT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST TO REACH THE UPPER 30S ON MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CONCERN FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST AT LEAST IF THESE MIN TEMPS WERE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COLDER AS
RECENT WARM WEATHER HAS ALLOWED VEGETATION TO BE RUNNING A COUPLE OF
WEEKS OR SO AHEAD OF AVERAGE. HOWEVER...ATTM...EVEN IT ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT APPEARS AS IF IT WOULD BE VERY PATCHY TO ISOLATED AND WOULD
OCCUR IN THE COLDEST OF THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS. THIS POTENTIAL
SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EVEN
ISOLATED TO PATCHY VALLEY FROST IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE
IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN KY. THE MAIN THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF FORECAST...UNTIL AND JUST AFTER SUNSET.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE OUT THEREAFTER AS THE LOW PUSHES PAST
OUR AREA TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. FIRST BAND OR ROUND OF SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO VCTY OF JACKSON WITHIN AN HOUR. ONLY CONCERN WAS
POTENTIAL FOR MIST...FOG TONIGHT. ATTM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AND WIND...MIXING TO MAINTAIN VFR OR HIGH END
MVFR AS A WORSE CASE. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND ONLY INCLUDED MVFR
VSBYS AT KJKL FOR THE TYPICAL MIST THAT TENDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE DAWN HORUS AND/OR THAT MOVES UP THE FROM THE VALLEY FLOOR AS DAWN
BREAKS.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND VEERED OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS BUT
WILL DIE OFF AGAIN AS THE MAIN LOW CLOSES IN. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY OUT OF THE NW AROUND 10KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1054 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL PICK BACK
UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IL AND WESTERN KY TRACKS ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. REGIONAL SAT ALSO
SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP STEEPEN UP THOSE
BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AS MID LEVELS COOL. SO A FEW STRONG
STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED POPS AND SKY
COVER FOR LATEST TRENDS. TEMPS WERE NOT TOO BAD SO ONLY SOME MINOR
TWEAKS THERE. EXPECT DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL FILL BACK IN BREAKS WITH
TIME. WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...DID ADJUST WEATHER GRIDS TO INTRODUCE A MORE
DIURNAL FLAVOR TO ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
HOURLY POPS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR CATEGORICAL COVERAGE
ONGOING AND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IN THE KY/WV AND VA TRI STATE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR WEST AS A
MIDDLESBORO TO JKL TO ELLIOTT COUNTY LINE OR SO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BEFORE BLENDING INTO POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT
REFLECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSRA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARS THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT CURVES WERE ALSO FRESHENED UP BASED ON
RECENT OBS. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH A FRESHENED UP
ZFP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 08Z HAS THE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 500MB WAVE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED CUT OFF LOW MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. LOOKING
AT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OBS...LOOKING LIKE ALL THE INSTABILITY
HAS BEEN TAPPED OUT EAST AS ONLY A FEW CELLS SEEM TO BE LEFT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE LINE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES SO HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE ZONES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND RUC AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE ALL DAY TODAY AS THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST.
THINKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER 500MB WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW
AGAIN AND THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AND AS SUCH...RAMPED UP POPS TO GOOD
CHANCES AND ALSO WENT WITH COVERAGE RATHER THAN PROBABILITY. ALSO THE
RAPID STABILIZATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS LEADS TO FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE VALLEYS AND SO PUT FOG INTO THE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO WILL RAMP
DOWN THE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...THE
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US...WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. INITIALLY
ON MONDAY...RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS INDICATE THAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY WHILE THE SOUTHERN END OF A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
NOSING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MON NIGHT
AND INTO TUE....WHILE THE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT ON OFF TO
THE EAST ON TUE. AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...A WARM
FRONT OR SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUE EVENING AND NIGHT WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THEN TRACKING NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON WED INTO WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND
APPALACHIAN REGION AND LIKELY REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY COMES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRACKS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES EAST A BIT QUICKER AND IS
WEAKER WITH THE LATE WEEK RIDGING. DURING THIS PERIOD OF GREATER
UNCERTAINTY...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF.
A SFC LOW SHOULD FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
FROM MON TO TUE...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AND THEN TRACKING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON WED WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTING THIS FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WED
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH I HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME 10 POPS WHICH ARE PART OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON TUE AFTERNOON AS THE PAST COUPLE OF ECMWF
RUNS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT FEATURE ON
TUE...THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE PERIOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
COME ON WED INTO WED EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL ON WED JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY BE
IN THE 40S OR EVEN THE 50S...WITH ONE EXCEPTION...MONDAY NIGHT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST TO REACH THE UPPER 30S ON MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CONCERN FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST AT LEAST IF THESE MIN TEMPS WERE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COLDER AS
RECENT WARM WEATHER HAS ALLOWED VEGETATION TO BE RUNNING A COUPLE OF
WEEKS OR SO AHEAD OF AVERAGE. HOWEVER...ATTM...EVEN IT ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT APPEARS AS IF IT WOULD BE VERY PATCHY TO ISOLATED AND WOULD
OCCUR IN THE COLDEST OF THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS. THIS POTENTIAL
SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EVEN
ISOLATED TO PATCHY VALLEY FROST IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE
IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 11Z HAS SOME SHOWERS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. SOME OF THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT HAS MOISTEN THE
BL AND SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS. MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
IS DEALING WITH SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND THIS IS SEEN ON THE RIDGES
AS JKL HAS SOME FOG ON THE RIDGES. THE FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY
15Z TODAY. WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN TODAY. THE RAINFALL AGAIN WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE PUT
IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES BY 08Z TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
746 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
HOURLY POPS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR CATEGORICAL COVERAGE
ONGOING AND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IN THE KY/WV AND VA TRI STATE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR WEST AS A
MIDDLESBORO TO JKL TO ELLIOTT COUNTY LINE OR SO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BEFORE BLENDING INTO POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT
REFLECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSRA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARS THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES WERE ALSO FRESHENED UP BASED ON
RECENT OBS. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH A FRESHENED UP
ZFP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 08Z HAS THE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 500MB WAVE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED CUT OFF LOW MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. LOOKING
AT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OBS...LOOKING LIKE ALL THE INSTABILITY
HAS BEEN TAPPED OUT EAST AS ONLY A FEW CELLS SEEM TO BE LEFT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE LINE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES SO HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE ZONES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND RUC AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE ALL DAY TODAY AS THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST.
THINKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER 500MB WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW
AGAIN AND THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AND AS SUCH...RAMPED UP POPS TO GOOD
CHANCES AND ALSO WENT WITH COVERAGE RATHER THAN PROBABILITY. ALSO THE
RAPID STABILIZATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS LEADS TO FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE VALLEYS AND SO PUT FOG INTO THE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO WILL RAMP
DOWN THE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...THE
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US...WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. INITIALLY
ON MONDAY...RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS INDICATE THAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY WHILE THE SOUTHERN END OF A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
NOSING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MON NIGHT
AND INTO TUE....WHILE THE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT ON OFF TO
THE EAST ON TUE. AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...A WARM
FRONT OR SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUE EVENING AND NIGHT WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THEN TRACKING NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON WED INTO WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND
APPALACHIAN REGION AND LIKELY REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY COMES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRACKS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES EAST A BIT QUICKER AND IS
WEAKER WITH THE LATE WEEK RIDGING. DURING THIS PERIOD OF GREATER
UNCERTAINTY...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF.
A SFC LOW SHOULD FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
FROM MON TO TUE...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AND THEN TRACKING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON WED WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTING THIS FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WED
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH I HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME 10 POPS WHICH ARE PART OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON TUE AFTERNOON AS THE PAST COUPLE OF ECMWF
RUNS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT FEATURE ON
TUE...THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE PERIOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
COME ON WED INTO WED EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL ON WED JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY BE
IN THE 40S OR EVEN THE 50S...WITH ONE EXCEPTION...MONDAY NIGHT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST TO REACH THE UPPER 30S ON MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CONCERN FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST AT LEAST IF THESE MIN TEMPS WERE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COLDER AS
RECENT WARM WEATHER HAS ALLOWED VEGETATION TO BE RUNNING A COUPLE OF
WEEKS OR SO AHEAD OF AVERAGE. HOWEVER...ATTM...EVEN IT ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT APPEARS AS IF IT WOULD BE VERY PATCHY TO ISOLATED AND WOULD
OCCUR IN THE COLDEST OF THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS. THIS POTENTIAL
SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EVEN
ISOLATED TO PATCHY VALLEY FROST IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE
IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 11Z HAS SOME SHOWERS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. SOME OF THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT HAS MOISTEN THE
BL AND SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS. MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
IS DEALING WITH SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND THIS IS SEEN ON THE RIDGES
AS JKL HAS SOME FOG ON THE RIDGES. THE FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY
15Z TODAY. WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN TODAY. THE RAINFALL AGAIN WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE PUT
IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES BY 08Z TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
655 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 08Z HAS THE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 500MB WAVE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED CUT OFF LOW MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. LOOKING
AT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OBS...LOOKING LIKE ALL THE INSTABILITY
HAS BEEN TAPPED OUT EAST AS ONLY A FEW CELLS SEEM TO BE LEFT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE LINE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES SO HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE ZONES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND RUC AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE ALL DAY TODAY AS THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST.
THINKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER 500MB WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW
AGAIN AND THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AND AS SUCH...RAMPED UP POPS TO GOOD
CHANCES AND ALSO WENT WITH COVERAGE RATHER THAN PROBABILITY. ALSO THE
RAPID STABILIZATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS LEADS TO FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE VALLEYS AND SO PUT FOG INTO THE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO WILL RAMP
DOWN THE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...THE
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US...WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. INITIALLY
ON MONDAY...RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS INDICATE THAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY WHILE THE SOUTHERN END OF A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
NOSING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MON NIGHT
AND INTO TUE....WHILE THE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT ON OFF TO
THE EAST ON TUE. AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...A WARM
FRONT OR SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUE EVENING AND NIGHT WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THEN TRACKING NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON WED INTO WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND
APPALACHIAN REGION AND LIKELY REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY COMES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRACKS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES EAST A BIT QUICKER AND IS
WEAKER WITH THE LATE WEEK RIDGING. DURING THIS PERIOD OF GREATER
UNCERTAINTY...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF.
A SFC LOW SHOULD FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
FROM MON TO TUE...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AND THEN TRACKING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON WED WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTING THIS FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WED
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH I HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME 10 POPS WHICH ARE PART OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON TUE AFTERNOON AS THE PAST COUPLE OF ECMWF
RUNS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT FEATURE ON
TUE...THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE PERIOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
COME ON WED INTO WED EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL ON WED JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY BE
IN THE 40S OR EVEN THE 50S...WITH ONE EXCEPTION...MONDAY NIGHT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST TO REACH THE UPPER 30S ON MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CONCERN FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST AT LEAST IF THESE MIN TEMPS WERE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COLDER AS
RECENT WARM WEATHER HAS ALLOWED VEGETATION TO BE RUNNING A COUPLE OF
WEEKS OR SO AHEAD OF AVERAGE. HOWEVER...ATTM...EVEN IT ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT APPEARS AS IF IT WOULD BE VERY PATCHY TO ISOLATED AND WOULD
OCCUR IN THE COLDEST OF THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS. THIS POTENTIAL
SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EVEN
ISOLATED TO PATCHY VALLEY FROST IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE
IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 11Z HAS SOME SHOWERS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. SOME OF THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT HAS MOISTEN THE
BL AND SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS. MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
IS DEALING WITH SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND THIS IS SEEN ON THE RIDGES
AS JKL HAS SOME FOG ON THE RIDGES. THE FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY
15Z TODAY. WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN TODAY. THE RAINFALL AGAIN WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE PUT
IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES BY 08Z TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
434 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 08Z HAS THE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 500MB WAVE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED CUT OFF LOW MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. LOOKING
AT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OBS...LOOKING LIKE ALL THE INSTABILITY
HAS BEEN TAPPED OUT EAST AS ONLY A FEW CELLS SEEM TO BE LEFT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE LINE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES SO HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE ZONES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND RUC AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE ALL DAY TODAY AS THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST.
THINKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER 500MB WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW
AGAIN AND THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AND AS SUCH...RAMPED UP POPS TO GOOD
CHANCES AND ALSO WENT WITH COVERAGE RATHER THAN PROBABILITY. ALSO THE
RAPID STABILIZATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS LEADS TO FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE VALLEYS AND SO PUT FOG INTO THE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO WILL RAMP
DOWN THE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...THE
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US...WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. INITIALLY
ON MONDAY...RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS INDICATE THAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY WHILE THE SOUTHERN END OF A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
NOSING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MON NIGHT
AND INTO TUE....WHILE THE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT ON OFF TO
THE EAST ON TUE. AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...A WARM
FRONT OR SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUE EVENING AND NIGHT WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THEN TRACKING NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON WED INTO WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND
APPALACHIAN REGION AND LIKELY REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY COMES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRACKS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES EAST A BIT QUICKER AND IS
WEAKER WITH THE LATE WEEK RIDGING. DURING THIS PERIOD OF GREATER
UNCERTAINTY...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF.
A SFC LOW SHOULD FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
FROM MON TO TUE...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AND THEN TRACKING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON WED WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTING THIS FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WED
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH I HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME 10 POPS WHICH ARE PART OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON TUE AFTERNOON AS THE PAST COUPLE OF ECMWF
RUNS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT FEATURE ON
TUE...THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE PERIOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
COME ON WED INTO WED EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL ON WED JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY BE
IN THE 40S OR EVEN THE 50S...WITH ONE EXCEPTION...MONDAY NIGHT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST TO REACH THE UPPER 30S ON MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CONCERN FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST AT LEAST IF THESE MIN TEMPS WERE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COLDER AS
RECENT WARM WEATHER HAS ALLOWED VEGETATION TO BE RUNNING A COUPLE OF
WEEKS OR SO AHEAD OF AVERAGE. HOWEVER...ATTM...EVEN IT ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT APPEARS AS IF IT WOULD BE VERY PATCHY TO ISOLATED AND WOULD
OCCUR IN THE COLDEST OF THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS. THIS POTENTIAL
SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EVEN
ISOLATED TO PATCHY VALLEY FROST IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE
IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
CONCERNING AVIATION TONIGHT...THE MAIN THREAT IS WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
GOING BY TIMING...THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY
12Z. CONCERNING THE CLEARING BEHIND THE LINE...SOME FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
FALLEN SO PUT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE TEMPS DROP A BIT. WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW LATER IN THE DAY...AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING...THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY SO THIS WAS
PUT INTO THE TAFS AS WELL.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
145 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY AT THIS HOUR. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO MIRROR THIS LINE AND
THE TIMING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE ACTIVITY AS OF 0535Z
SEEM TO BE WEAKENING AS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS SHOWN BY SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL
STILL KEEP THE THREAT OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE FORECAST AS STILL
ALOT OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER UPDATE BY 0830Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012
NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREVIOUS TIMING ON CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE MODEL DATA. CONVECTION IS NEARING THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION...AND EXPECT INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT PER THE 23Z HRRR. HAVE CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME REPORTS OF
FOG IN LOCAL VALLEY AREAS AND WILL ADD THIS TO THE HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012
SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MOREHEAD TO
WHITESBURG CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. ALSO AN SHOWER MOVING INTO WAYNE COUNTY AT
THIS TIME. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY INCREASING FROM NORTH
OF BOWLING GREEN INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. AS LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
EAST TONIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS IN EASTERN KY...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION SCATTERED IN NATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH 50
PERCENT PROBABILITIES. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO NDFD FOR
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012
HAVE UPDATED NDFD OUT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL POINTS
TOWARDS A DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z AS
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY NOW AFFECTING EASTERN KY MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THE CHANCE WILL THEN RAMP UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012
SAT IMAGERY AND SFC ANALYSIS AS OF 18Z SHOWS THE CENTER OF A BROAD
STACKED LOW NOW MOVING FROM MO INTO IL. CONVECTION OVER ERN KY HAS
BEEN RATHER ANEMIC THUS FAR LARGELY DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
INHIBITING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...BLENDED PWAT PRODUCT SHOWS THE AXIS
OF AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GOMEX STILL ALIGNED FROM SRN AL
UP THRU MIDDLE TN AND INTO CENTRAL KY....FUELING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER ERN KY WITH LIGHTNING JUST NOW STARTING TO PICK UP OVER OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH A HINT OF ROTATION IN A CELL MOVING INTO LESLIE
COUNTY SUGGESTING AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL MAY STILL EXIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST PERIOD AS WELL.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS OVER WRN KY WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTABLY
DEEPER SUGGEST 12Z MODELS MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE MARK WITH THE
IDEA OF A SOLID LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL WOULD NOT
RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM OR TWO THRU THIS EVENING WITH IR INDICATING
SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE CONVECTION MOVING UP FROM ERN TN. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY BRINGING LOWERING HEIGHTS
ALOFT AS THE BROAD LOW APPROACHES WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE...WARRANTING ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANCE TSTMS
THRU THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS SEVERE POTENTIAL THAN TODAY.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE SFC
TRACK AND POPS AS WELL. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY FOR THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE THE MORE
CONSISTENT SOLUTION. THIS WOULD MOVE THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW INTO
SERN KY BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE COMMONWEALTH...LEAVING A
DEEP NW FLOW OVERHEAD WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID LEVEL
ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TO AFFECT A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ATTM INDICATE
MINIMAL INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
WORDING FOR TSTMS FOR THE MOMENT...THOUGH IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
THEN THE NEXT ISSUANCE COULD PROBABLY PULL THUNDER FROM SUNDAY AND
JUST LEAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012
PATTERN IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALSO...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DY7 WHEN SOLUTIONS DISPLAY A
SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. HOWEVER...TREND HAS BEEN
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE RIDGE TRANSITS
OUR AREA AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED BEHIND EXITING LOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEND A
BACK DOOR SFC FRONT INTO THE CWA. BUT THIS FEATURE STALLS OUT ACROSS
OUR AREA TUESDAY BEFORE SHOOTING BACK TO OUR NORTH AS OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER ROLLS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY MID WEEK...PROBABLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
WEATHER TAKES OVER AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COMPARED TO
OUR RECENT RECORD HIGHS...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR
HIGHS AROUND 70...EXCEPT MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
CONCERNING AVIATION TONIGHT...THE MAIN THREAT IS WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
GOING BY TIMING...THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY
12Z. CONCERNING THE CLEARING BEHIND THE LINE...SOME FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
FALLEN SO PUT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE TEMPS DROP A BIT. WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW LATER IN THE DAY...AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING...THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY SO THIS WAS
PUT INTO THE TAFS AS WELL.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....RAY
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
719 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL
TO VALUES COMMON FOR MAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH
DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MONDAY, WHICH MEANS THERE CAN BE A FROST
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS ARE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AS 850 MB LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY. SPC HAS MENTIONED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AS
SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR.
CONSENSUS OF GFS AND NAM MOS MAINTAIN MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY,
AND SO THE STRING OF RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD END.
PITTSBURGH HAS HAD ELEVEN CONSECUTIVE MARCH DAYS OF 70 PLUS, BUT
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TODAY TO RUN THE STRING TO TWELVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW POST-SYSTEM SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO LATE SUNDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS EAST THROUGH VIRGINIA.
ENSUING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRYING BY MONDAY. NORTH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT CAN CAUSE FROST TO DEVELOP
IN MANY AREAS. SUCH A FROST OCCURRENCE IS TYPICAL FOR LATE MARCH,
BUT THIS ONE MAY HAVE HIGH IMPACT ON THE HEELS OF THE RECENT WARM
SPELL THAT HAS SPURRED AN EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON. THIS
THREAT HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK/HWO/.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT ECMWF AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW DRY SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST.
A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM WILL STEER A WYOMING-BRED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTBOUND TO BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A WARM UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
WEDNESDAY IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF IFR CIGS/VIS IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF W
PA IN THE MOISTURE LL ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP THESE LOW CONDITIONS
THROUGH DAWN. WILL NEED TO WATCH ZZV, AS CIGS AND VIS THERE ARE
ALSO DROPPING. OBS TO THE SOUTH OF ZZV, ARE SHOWING IFR
CONDITIONS, SO WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA COUPLED WITH HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW A BAND OF MVFR SHOWERS WILL PASS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH 12Z. EVAPORATION OF THE RAIN MAY
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS INTO 15Z. A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS, PERHAPS
EMBEDDED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, AND PROLONG MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
SPC HAS MENTIONED WEAK SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
AVIATION, THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL ALOFT.
POST SYSTEM COOLING MAY MAINTAIN A NEAR SATURATED SURFACE LAYER INTO
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN LINGERING MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COLD
FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
414 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE, MOVING EAST FROM KENTUCKY, WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS INTO
SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO VALUES COMMON FOR MAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MONDAY, WHICH
MEANS THERE CAN BE A FROST MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD, AS THE RAIN IN
THE BAND IS MOVING NORTHWARD. AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED IN
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE, SO WILL NEED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG THROUGH
DAWN.
HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THERE MAY BE A DRY BREAK SATURDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT MAY INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS MENTIONED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AS
SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR.
INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO MONITORED TODAY IF THE DRY BREAK PRODUCES A
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WHICH CAUSE AN UPWARD SPIKE IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
CONSENSUS OF GFS AND NAM MOS MAINTAIN MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, AND
SO THE STRING OF RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD END. PITTSBURGH HAS
HAD ELEVEN CONSECUTIVE MARCH DAYS OF 70 PLUS, BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 70 TODAY TO RUN THE STRING TO TWELVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW POST-SYSTEM SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO LATE SUNDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS EAST THROUGH VIRGINIA.
ENSUING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRYING BY MONDAY. NORTH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT CAN CAUSE FROST TO DEVELOP
IN MANY AREAS. SUCH A FROST OCCURRENCE IS TYPICAL FOR LATE MARCH,
BUT THIS ONE MAY HAVE HIGH IMPACT ON THE HEELS OF THE RECENT WARM
SPELL THAT HAS SPURRED AN EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON. THIS
THREAT HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK/HWO/.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT ECMWF AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW DRY SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST.
A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM WILL STEER A WYOMING-BRED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTBOUND TO BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A WARM UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
WEDNESDAY IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF IFR CIGS/VIS IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF W
PA IN THE MOISTURE LL ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP THESE LOW CONDITIONS
THROUGH DAWN. WILL NEED TO WATCH ZZV, AS CIGS AND VIS THERE ARE
ALSO DROPPING. OBS TO THE SOUTH OF ZZV, ARE SHOWING IFR
CONDITIONS, SO WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA COUPLED WITH HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW A BAND OF MVFR SHOWERS WILL PASS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH 12Z. EVAPORATION OF THE RAIN MAY
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS INTO 15Z. A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS, PERHAPS
EMBEDDED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, AND PROLONG MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
SPC HAS MENTIONED WEAK SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
AVIATION, THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL ALOFT.
POST SYSTEM COOLING MAY MAINTAIN A NEAR SATURATED SURFACE LAYER INTO
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN LINGERING MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COLD
FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH TODAY...AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH AND LIKELY STALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THERE/S ALREADY SOME PVA/WAA MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA
WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. RESULT IS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
TO THE EAST/EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY EXITING
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FAST ON ITS HEELS WITH LIKELY BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE MAY NOT BE A HUGE TIME LULL IN BETWEEN
ROUNDS...SO AM UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
MAY DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST AREA FOR THIS MAY BE ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY. EVEN
WITHOUT BREAKS...WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PW/S AND ALSO SOME COOLING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAIN CONCERN GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY HIGH. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS /HAIL/ ESPECIALLY CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHICH
IS WHERE SREFS HAS MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY IN A CHANCE OF MUCAPE GTE
1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR 30 KT. BUT AGAIN...INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE
IS SOMEWHAT CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THERE CAN BE BREAKS OR NOT.
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY IN AN EASTERLY FLOW. BUT GIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS...EVEN AREA
FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA SHOULD FAVOR THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT
A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED LOW IS FCST TO REACH THE LEE SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY SUN MRNG BEFORE SLOWLY REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST
SUN AFTN. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT AND ACCORDINGLY THE STEADIEST/
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL SHIFT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUN. THE
CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON NRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...WHERE LGT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED NEAR MID-LVL DEFORMATION AXIS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
AIDED BY WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTN FROM THE COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
TSTMS SUN AFTN AS FAR NORTH AS WOO-IAD-DMH. SHEAR-INSTABILITY
PROFILES DO NOT INDICATE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. QPF AMOUNTS ARE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH ON SUN.
MAX TEMP FCST A BIT TRICKY DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION. ATTM...MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE MTS AND
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE TO THE LOW 70S IN CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD.
THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. SKIES MAY EVEN GO PARTLY CLOUDY BY DAWN
MON MRNG.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER TWO WEEKS. NRN-STREAM
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO THE NE STATES ON MON. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE LOW WILL DRIVE COLDER AIR SWD INTO THE AREA THRUOUT THE
DAY. STRONG CAA SHOULD OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING SOMEWHAT. TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE 60S AND EVEN 70F ACROSS CENTRAL VA/SRN
WITH THE AIDE OF THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF ERY SPRING.
HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NGT. THE COLDEST NGT SINCE THE FIRST
WEEK OF MARCH IS EXPECTED MON NGT. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER
IMPLIED...CAA PATTERN AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM HIPRES
BUILDING SWD SHOULD PREVENT WINDS FROM DECOUPLING AND WIDESPREAD
FROST. SHELTERED VLYS WITHIN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS MAY FLIRT WITH
THE FREEZING MARK.
HIPRES/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE
COAST WED. AFTER MAX TEMPS FINALLY RETURN TOWARD NORMAL LVLS FOR
LATE MARCH ON TUE /UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S/...WAA PATTERN WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S BY WED.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE
REGION LATE WED INTO ERY THU. TEMPS RETURN TOWARD SEASONABLE LVLS
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH WILL REINFORCE EASTERLY FLOW TODAY.
ALREADY HAVE IFR CIGS CREEPING INTO MTN/BWI AT 07Z. HRRR SUGGESTS
IFR CIGS MAKE IT TO IAD TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WESTWARD EXTENT AND TIMING
OF STRATUS THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE/S SHOWERS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WELL OF AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THESE SHOWERS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TERMINALS FIRST CHO/MRB THEN
SPREADING EAST AFTER DAYBREAK AT THE HUBS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT LEAST MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS TODAY...BUT GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS BECOME ENTRENCHED.
IF THEY DO...THEY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
LIKELY DROP TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF MVFR WINDS
UP PREVAILING THE BULK OF THE DAY...THEN IFR/LIFR SHOULD RETURN
THIS EVENING.
IFR CIGS SUN MRNG MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR LVLS BY THE AFTN. EXACT
EVOLUTION OF CIGS AND EVEN VSBYS WILL DEPEND ON SHRA COVERAGE DURING
THIS TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO TSTM SUN AFTN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF MRB-BWI-MTN.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SUN NGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON AND TUE. NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
ON MON...15-20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RESULT WILL BE EASTERLY
FLOW...THAT MAY INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE TODAY.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING VIS
RESTRICTIONS OF 1 TO 3 NM FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATER LATE TONIGHT.
AN ISO TSTM POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS SUN AFTN. N-NW FLOW WILL
INCREASE SUN NGT AND MON BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT AND LIKELY MON THRU A PORTION OF TUE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/JRK
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...JRK
LONG TERM...JRK
AVIATION...BPP/JRK
MARINE...BPP/JRK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
242 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE, MOVING EAST FROM KENTUCKY, WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS INTO
SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO VALUES COMMON FOR MAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MONDAY, WHICH
MEANS THERE CAN BE A FROST MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT RADAR DATA AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVING EAST FROM KENTUCKY, WILL PASS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY UNTIL MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL AT MOST ONLY
DROP 2 OR 3 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THERE MAY BE A DRY BREAK SATURDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT MAY INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS MENTIONED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AS
SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR.
INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO MONITORED TODAY IF THE DRY BREAK PRODUCES A
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WHICH CAUSE AN UPWARD SPIKE IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
CONSENSUS OF GFS AND NAM MOS MAINTAIN MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, AND
SO THE STRING OF RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD END. PITTSBURGH HAS
HAD ELEVEN CONSECUTIVE MARCH DAYS OF 70 PLUS, BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 70 TODAY TO RUN THE STRING TO TWELVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW POST-SYSTEM SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO LATE SUNDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS EAST THROUGH VIRGINIA.
ENSUING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRYING BY MONDAY. NORTH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT CAN CAUSE FROST TO DEVELOP
IN MANY AREAS. SUCH A FROST OCCURRENCE IS TYPICAL FOR LATE MARCH,
BUT THIS ONE MAY HAVE HIGH IMPACT ON THE HEELS OF THE RECENT WARM
SPELL THAT HAS SPURRED AN EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON. THIS
THREAT HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK/HWO/.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT ECMWF AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW DRY SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST.
A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM WILL STEER A WYOMING-BRED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTBOUND TO BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A WARM UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
WEDNESDAY IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE AND RADAR DATA COUPLED WITH HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW A BAND OF MVFR SHOWERS WILL PASS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH 12Z. EVAPORATION OF THE RAIN MAY
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS INTO 15Z. A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS, PERHAPS
EMBEDDED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, AND PROLONG MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
SPC HAS MENTIONED WEAK SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
AVIATION, THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL ALOFT.
POST SYSTEM COOLING MAY MAINTAIN A NEAR SATURATED SURFACE LAYER INTO
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN LINGERING MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COLD
FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF FRIDAY, PITTSBURGH HAS HAD 11 CONSECUTIVE MARCH DAYS WITH
HIGHS OF 70 PLUS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
757 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY...AS THE H875 INVERSION
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO ERRODE. AWAY FROM THE COOLING OFF LK
SUPERIOR...THE CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT...BUT STILL HAVE A DECENT
SWATH OF CLOUDS OVER SRN ONTARIO NEAR THUNDER BAY.
MEANWHILE...1033MB SFC HIGH JUST NE OF LK WINNIPEG AND AN
ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE HAS BEEN WORKING INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR. FARTHER
SW...DEVELOPING LOW OVER WYOMING AS LED TO SOME MID LVL WAA AND
CLOUDS OVER SD AND SRN MN. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY S OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
BRINGS DRIER MID LVL AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LKS.
ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE CLOUDS NEAR/OVER LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE
WAY THEY HAVE HUNG IN TODAY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ERN LK...FEELING
IS THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THEM HANGING AROUND FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LK INSTABILITY...AS H950-925
TEMPS ARE AROUND -9C AND LK TEMPS AROUND 3-4C. QUESTION WILL BE IF
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME WITH THIS MOISTURE AND MOST HAVE THE MOISTURE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING WITH THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH THE SFC
RIDGE. BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF THE CLOUDS OVER SRN ONTARIO AND
CNTRL/ERN LK SUPERIOR CREATES CONCERN ON IT COMPLETELY DIMINISHING.
HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUDS TO PARTLY CLOUDY NEAR LK SUPERIOR FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS TO SUBSIDENCE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND
DECREASING MOISTURE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
DIMINISH THEM. THAT BEING SAID...COULD EASILY SEE THE MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND REMAINING WITH THE LK
INSTABILITY. DID TRY TO SHOW SOME MOVEMENT TO THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AS H925 WINDS VEER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD FOCUS THE CLOUDS
OVER THE N THEN NE FAVORED LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...13-16Z RUC RUNS
TRY TO DEVELOP LK ENHANCED PCPN OVER CNTRL/ERN LK SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING AND THEN DROP IT INTO UPPER MI. THE ONLY OTHER HIRES MODEL
TO MENTION IT WAS THE REGIONAL GEM. WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
TODAY DEVELOPMENT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISING...BUT WITH CONCERNS ON AMNT
OF MOISTURE PRESENT DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT.
LOWS TONIGHT HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL DUE TO SEVERAL INFLUENCES.
NEAR LK SUPERIOR...THE CLOUDS/WIND WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO CREATES UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE STUCK WITH A
MIDDLE GROUND IN THE UPPER 20S. FARTHER INLAND...TEMPS COULD REALLY
TANK ONCE THE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IF SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. PWATS AROUND 0.25IN OR ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
LIGHT WINDS CREATES A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND EXPECT
TEMPS TO FALL NEAR 20. IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN AWAY...COULD SEE VALUES
EVEN COLDER INTO THE TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COLD SPOTS.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SW OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE
SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE
DAY...AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN MONTANA/WYOMING. OTHER THAN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LK CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING UNDER H700 WAA MON AFTN OVER
MN AND NW WI...AND WILL APPROACH THE FAR WRN CWA LATE IN THE AFTN.
COOL NRLY FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MIXING DOWN NEAR THE LK
SHORE AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S. FARTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE LK
INFLUENCE...MIXING TOWARDS H850 TEMPS OF -4C WEST AND -9C EAST WILL
PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BORDER.
AS FOR DEWPOINTS...MODEL MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAND CWA. THIS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO HAVE ADJUSTED GOING
VALUES DOWN A TOUCH AWAY FROM THE MOISTENING AFFECTS OF LK
SUPERIOR. THIS LEADS TO RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH
A FEW MID-LOWER 20S OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KTS OR
LESS AND ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...EXPECT FIRE WX CONCERNS
TO BE LIMITED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
AND WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WAA AND 295K- 305K
ISENTROPIC LIFT (NOSE OF 850-800MB WINDS 50-55KT) WILL SUPPORT A BAND
OF PCPN THROUGH THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
VERY STRONG WAA IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER PUSHING WARM NOSE TEMPS TO
AROUND 5C SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY LIQUID PCPN. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND WAA OVER THE FAR WEST EXPECT THAT SFC TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ENOUGH
BY THE ONSET OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN AS RAIN. HOWEVER...OVER INTERIOR
WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
MAY LINGER AS THE PCPN MOVES IN. EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET OF
PCPN WILL ALSO DELAY LOW LEVEL WARMING. WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AFTER THE LONG WARM SPELL...THERE IS ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE IF ANY WOULD ACCUMULATE. SO...MENTIONED
BOTH RA/FZRA FOR MOST OF THE THE CWA AND HIGHLIGHTED THE HAZARD IN A
PORTION OF THE SPS. INSTABILITY FOR TSRA LOOKS MARGINAL...BUT SOME
ELEVATED CAPE INTO EDING INTO THE CWA SUPPORTS AT LEAST CONTINUED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS THE DRY SLOT SPREADS ACROSS THE ARA LATE TUE
INTO TUE EVENING...PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR
ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE MID LEVEL
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH UPPER MI SOME ADDITIONAL WRAP-AROUND LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WED MORNNG. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
WED AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE REGION.
SO...ONLY LOW END POPS FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PCPN.
THU-SUN...HIGH PRES SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA THU WITH COOL DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SHRTWV AND PCPN CHANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY EVEN THOUGH CONFIDECNE IN DETAILS IS LOW. A BLOCKING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH WITH A SFC HUDSON BAY HIGH EXTENDEDING INTO THE AREA WILL
LIMIT PCPN CHANCES TO LOWER END POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE UPPER LAKES IS
ERODING STRATOCU/MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR.
FCST TONIGHT WILL REVOLVE AROUND IMPACT OF DRIER AIR...OVERLAKE
INSTABILITY UNDER CHILLY AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE/CLOUDS
NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO RETURN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER DURING THE
NIGHT. KIWD APPEARS MOST STRAIGHTFORWARD AS VEERING WINDS BRING
INCREASING OVERLAND TRAJECTORY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
ONLY SCT CLOUDS AROUND 2K FT AT TIMES DURING THE EVENING. AT KCMX...
BACKEDGE OF STRATOCU IS ADVANCING SLOWLY S ON THE KEWEENAW...AND
SHOULD REACH KCMX IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. WITH WIND DOWN THE SPINE OF
THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING
MOSTLY SCT. AT KSAW...IFR CONDITIONS WITH -SN SHOULD END IN THE NEXT
HR OR SO PER RECENT RADAR/SAT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...KSAW IS MORE
LIKELY TO SEE AN MVFR CIG PERSIST WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
THE LAKE AND POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE NE OF THE LAKE TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA. ON THE OTHER HAND...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MAY
COUNTERACT FACTORS FAVORING CLOUDS. FOR NOW...CARRIED MVFR CIGS THRU
THE EVENING AND SCATTERED CLOUDS OUT OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR
TRENDS TOWARD A MORE PESSIMISTIC FCST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN THE VEERING WINDS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS E ON MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NRN PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST AND ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS ON TUESDAY OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
322 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
COMING WEEK... ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT NO PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY. IN THE BIG PICTURE... THE LARGE SCALE
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND HENCE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
THIS MEANS THAT INSTEAD OF SEEING TEMPERATURES OF 20-30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL... THEY MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONE MAJOR
CONCERN COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK... SINCE SOME OF THE CALENDAR-DEFICIENT PLANTS HAVE
DECIDED IT/S ALREADY TIME TO START GROWING. IT DOESN/T APPEAR AS
THOUGH ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK... BUT PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE READINGS DIP
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ON A COUPLE OF MORNINGS. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK... SO GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THEIR GUIDANCE... INCREASINGLY BLENDING IT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LATER PERIODS.
VISIBILE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS MORNING/S LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE
FINALLY BURNED OFF OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
RESPONDING QUICKLY TO THE SUNSHINE... WITH READINGS CLIMBING
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS WORK
UPWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... THEN THINGS WILL COOL OFF BOTH
IN RESPONSE TO DARKNESS AND THE COLD FRONT MARCHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR
INTERNATIONAL FALLS SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH A BIG DROP IN
DEWPOINTS NOTED AS WELL. A FEW SHRA COULD DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY OF
THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE HRRR AND LOCAL
4KM WRF-ARW DO MANAGE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHRA INTO THE
NORTHEAST PART OF OUR AREA... BUT AT THIS POINT WOULD RATHER SEE
MORE GOING ON IN THE REAL WORLD TO INCLUDE A MENTION. AS
MENTIONED... THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH RIDGING
AND COOLER/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FOR OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. BUT... GIVEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW... THIS CHANGE WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED... WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP QUICKLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS IMPRESSIVE AS
THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT... FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. A LOOK AT ELEVATED INSTABILITY... PER 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E VALUES... SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER CREEPING IN
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT... WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE WARM SECTOR FULLY ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT AN INITIAL ARC OF
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION TO LIFT INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... THEN A SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN BEHIND THAT OWING TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND THE ARRIVAL OF ELEVATED
INSTABILTY. IN ADDITION... SOME POTENT STORMS MAY DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING... AND WHAT IS LEFT OF
THOSE COULD WORK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... WORKING TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
EAST THROUGH OUR AREA SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE FRONT LOOKS
TO GET ACROSS MOST OF THE MINNESOTA CWFA BY 18Z... AND THROUGH THE
WISCONSIN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE QUITE STRONG ON TUESDAY... LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT DID YESTERDAY...
MAINLY DUE TO THE EARLIER PROGGED ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE
EARLIER FROPA WOULD ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA... WHICH
IS A NEGATIVE TOWARD THE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES. SO... AT
THIS POINT... THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA.
BUT... IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY... SO ANY CHANGES IN THE TIMING
AND POSITION OF FEATURES COULD STILL CHANGE THINGS A BIT... SO IT
IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF BELOW ZERO
ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO THE AREA FOR A TIME ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGE WILL BE SHORTLIVED ONCE
AGAIN... WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER AIR WORKING BACK INTO THE
REGION BY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWER CHANCES
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
/ISSUED 1246 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012/
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR
FROM KSTC AND KMSP ON EASTWARD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOLES ARE DEVELOPING QUICKLY IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY
BETWEEN KMSP AND KDLH. KAXN AND KRWF ARE IN THE CLEAR BUT THE
CONCERN FOR THESE TWO SITES...ESPECIALLY KAXN IS THE EXTENSIVE
STRATUS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF ND/SD. HAVE TIMED
SOME BKN010 INTO KAXN THIS EVENING AS WELL AS KSTC DURING THE LATE
EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT A
BAND OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS. IN FACT...IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THE
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY RIDE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND ONLY SCT CONDITIONS USED
AT THIS POINT. LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH
FROPA WITH SPEEDS OF 8-10 KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH.
KMSP...IMPROVEMENT TO A VFR CEILING OR PERHAPS JUST SCT CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED BY 21Z. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY (330-350)
WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONE CONCERN
TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BKN-OVC010-015 DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE AFTER 06Z AND LAST UNTIL NEAR 12Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON OCCURRENCE WITH SCT CONDITIONS INDICATED
FOR NOW.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
.../RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1242 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
IFR CONDITIONS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS BOTH REVEAL RISING AND THINNING CEILINGS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN SPOTS FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN MVFR/HIGH
IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE BACK IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL
LIFT AND SCATTER OUT LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT AND SOME GUSTY WINDS
UPON PASSAGE. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012/
UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS LESSENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION AS
OF LATE MORNING. LATEST RUC13 SHOWS MID LVL FLOW IS INCREASING AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH A KBDE/KFGN TO KGWR LINE.
TEMPS IN 30S/40S BEHIND FRONT ACROSS NE NDAK. 88D HS BEEN SHOWING
CONVECTIVE APPEARING ECHOES QUICKLY PASSING ACROSS NWRN CWA AHEAD
OF FRONT. MAINLY MID LVL AT THIS POINT. ZFP/PFM PRODUCTS UPDATED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012/
UPDATE...EXTENDED DFA THRU 18Z OVER WRN CWA AND 21Z FOR ERN
ZONES. ALSO ADDED IRON COUNTY. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL
LODGED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...RIDGING SOUTHWEST TOWARD KAIT.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/4SM-1/2SM. MSAS SHOWS SFC LOW HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN INVERTED TROUGH OVER SWRN CORNER OF ONT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH KGFK INTO NCTRL SD. LATEST NWP SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR PRE-FRONTAL THETAE AXIS TO INITIATE CONVECTION ONCE BDRY LYR
MIXING/WARMING DEVELOPS LATER TODAY. OZ SPC WRF SHOWS THIN LINE OF
RW DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z OVER NWRN CWA AND MOVING SE INTO WISC THIS
EVENING. MAY NEED TO ADD LOW POPS OVER NWRN WISC IN LATER FCST IF
PRECIP DOES MATERIALIZE. FCST MAX TEMPS VERY TRICKY. AS LONG AS
STRATUS/FOG LAYER RESIDES OVERHEAD DIURNAL CURVE IS RESTRICTED.
HOWEVER EXISTING FCST IS BASED ON EVENTUAL WARM ADVECTION INCREASE
JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. MOST IMPORTANTLY...ENOUGH
DECREASE IN CLOUD LAYER WILL NEED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW ABOUT A 3HR
WINDOW OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012/
AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EARLY
MORNING. AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY IMPROVE
TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR...AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS IN. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATER TODAY OR DURING THE
EVENING. IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA AND ERN COLORADO. THERE IS ALSO A
WARM FRONT SHOWING UP ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS...GENERALLY FROM
ERN SODAK ACROSS IOWA AND CNTL ILLINOIS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHLAND...THE LOW-
LEVELS HAVE BECOME SATURATED...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FOG.
ACROSS OUR CWA...THE FOG HAS BECOME DENSE IN MANY AREAS...AND
ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...IRON
RANGE...ARROWHEAD AND SOUTHSHORE. THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...AND LIFT BY MIDDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...BRIEFLY BRINGING THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE REGION...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT MAY ALSO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR MN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA INITIATES DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A 50 KNOT LLJ WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. HEIGHTS WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER MINNESOTA BY LATE TUESDAY. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO
OFFER A COMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE FURTHER NORTH GFS AND THE
STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST GEM SOLUTION. BASED ON THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE EARLY
TO MID PART OF THE WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN
BY THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LAST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS BEEN AWAY FROM THE LAKE RECENTLY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 50 29 40 / 10 10 10 10
INL 26 45 25 45 / 10 10 0 20
BRD 33 53 35 47 / 10 10 20 40
HYR 38 56 31 50 / 10 10 10 20
ASX 38 50 30 44 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1153 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS LESSENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION AS
OF LATE MORNING. LATEST RUC13 SHOWS MID LVL FLOW IS INCREASING AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH A KBDE/KFGN TO KGWR LINE.
TEMPS IN 30S/40S BEHIND FRONT ACROSS NE NDAK. 88D HS BEEN SHOWING
CONVECTIVE APPEARING ECHOES QUICKLY PASSING ACROSS NWRN CWA AHEAD
OF FRONT. MAINLY MID LVL AT THIS POINT. ZFP/PFM PRODUCTS UPDATED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012/
UPDATE...EXTENDED DFA THRU 18Z OVER WRN CWA AND 21Z FOR ERN
ZONES. ALSO ADDED IRON COUNTY. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL
LODGED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...RIDGING SOUTHWEST TOWARD KAIT.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/4SM-1/2SM. MSAS SHOWS SFC LOW HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN INVERTED TROUGH OVER SWRN CORNER OF ONT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH KGFK INTO NCTRL SD. LATEST NWP SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR PRE-FRONTAL THETAE AXIS TO INITIATE CONVECTION ONCE BDRY LYR
MIXING/WARMING DEVELOPS LATER TODAY. OZ SPC WRF SHOWS THIN LINE OF
RW DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z OVER NWRN CWA AND MOVING SE INTO WISC THIS
EVENING. MAY NEED TO ADD LOW POPS OVER NWRN WISC IN LATER FCST IF
PRECIP DOES MATERIALIZE. FCST MAX TEMPS VERY TRICKY. AS LONG AS
STRATUS/FOG LAYER RESIDES OVERHEAD DIURNAL CURVE IS RESTRICTED.
HOWEVER EXISTING FCST IS BASED ON EVENTUAL WARM ADVECTION INCREASE
JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. MOST IMPORTANTLY...ENOUGH
DECREASE IN CLOUD LAYER WILL NEED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW ABOUT A 3HR
WINDOW OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012/
AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EARLY
MORNING. AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY IMPROVE
TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR...AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS IN. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATER TODAY OR DURING THE
EVENING. IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012/
SHORT TERM...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA AND ERN COLORADO. THERE IS ALSO A
WARM FRONT SHOWING UP ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS...GENERALLY FROM
ERN SODAK ACROSS IOWA AND CNTL ILLINOIS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHLAND...THE LOW-
LEVELS HAVE BECOME SATURATED...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FOG.
ACROSS OUR CWA...THE FOG HAS BECOME DENSE IN MANY AREAS...AND
ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...IRON
RANGE...ARROWHEAD AND SOUTHSHORE. THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...AND LIFT BY MIDDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...BRIEFLY BRINGING THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE REGION...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT MAY ALSO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR MN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA INITIATES DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. A 50 KNOT LLJ WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. HEIGHTS WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER MINNESOTA BY LATE TUESDAY. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO
OFFER A COMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE FURTHER NORTH GFS AND THE
STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST GEM SOLUTION. BASED ON THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE EARLY
TO MID PART OF THE WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN
BY THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LAST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS BEEN AWAY FROM THE LAKE RECENTLY.
AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE AND AROUND THE WESTERN NOSE
INCLUDING DLH...DYT...SUW...COQ...AND TWM...LIFR IN DENSE FOG WILL
LIFT TO MVFR IN CLOUDS ABOUT MID MORNING SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...IFR
OR LOW-END VFR IN CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT TO MVFR IN
CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIFT TO VFR IN
SCATTERED CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 34 50 29 / 10 10 10 10
INL 56 26 45 25 / 30 10 10 0
BRD 63 33 53 35 / 10 10 10 20
HYR 62 38 56 31 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 56 38 50 30 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1005 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.UPDATE...MOISTURE AXIS IS ALIGNING ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA ATTM
AND HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG
ALONG MOISTURE AXIS AND HAVE ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. ALSO...INCREASING LLVL JET OVER MOISTURE AXIS AND DECENT
AREA OF THETA E ADVECTION ALIGNS ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO IN THIS AREA AND
INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
AVIATION...00Z TAF. MID TO HIGH VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE
TERMINAL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES. SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS AND GUST OVER
30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS LIE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS.
UPPER AIR PROFILER AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS...SANDWICHED BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFF THE
SOCAL COAST. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH WAS PUSHING SOUTH THIS MORNING
MADE IT IN TO JUST ABOUT I-80...BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTED
TRANSITIONING FROM THE NORTH TO MORE TO THE EAST. TOOK A LITTLE
BIT...BUT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FINALLY SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...AND WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES...WINDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA EVENTUALLY SWITCHED OVER TO THE S/SE. BETWEEN THIS
MORNINGS CLOUD COVER NOT ERODING UNTIL LATE MORNING AND ANOTHER
BATCH OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFFECTING THE NWRN CORNER OF THE
CWA...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ONLY REACHED INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S...VS THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA.
LOOKING TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
WILL STATE THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...ESP IN THE
NORTHEAST/EASTERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-50KT SWRLY LLJ
TONIGHT...WHICH NOSES INTO...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z
MONDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS A SURGE OF INCREASED
WARM AIR/THETAE ADVECTION...MAINLY AFFECTING THE NERN HALF OF THE
CWA BETWEEN 06-12Z. REALLY DEBATED THROWING SOME SMALL POPS IN...BUT
ANOTHER THING THAT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS THE
PRESENCE OF CAPPING...SHOWING 700MB TEMPS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 5-9
DEG C DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE CAPPING IS A BIT WEAKER ALONG THAT
NE/ERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...AND WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS PRECIP THERE
ISNT MUCH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS WITH THERE BEING ENOUGH FORCING
TO BREAK THROUGH THAT CAP. WITH CONTINUED S/SERN FLOW OVERNIGHT
/WITH SPEEDS HIGHER THAN LAST FEW NIGHTS/...EXPECTING LOW TEMPS TO
BE WARMER...AND FORECAST LOWS SIT IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.
AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW...THE MAIN FOCUS TURNS TO WINDS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN FOR LATE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHOWS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AS A
DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TROUGH THE ROCKIES...LEAVING THE CWA WITH
SWRLY FLOW. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER...EXPECTING TO SEE
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
INCREASING SRLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MIXING POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO ONLY REACH UPWARDS OF 850MB...THERE ARE ALSO INCREASED WINDS TO
TAP INTO. DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND ADV ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE ERN FRINGE IS MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...BUT WAS
COMFORTABLE INCLUDING IT. EXPECTING TO SEE A BUMP UP IN TEMP...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. AT THIS POINT COULD CREEP CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS /MAINLY IN HASTINGS AND KEARNEY/...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW. RECORDS ARE 86 AT BOTH HASTINGS AND KEARNEY IN 1989...AND 90
IN GRAND ISLAND IN 1907. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE OF
THE CWA...AND DID KEEP THE LOW POPS IN. WHILE WE DO HAVE INCREASING
INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND THE DISTURBANCE IS SHIFTING
CLOSER...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WAS NOT GOING TO INCREASE POPS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. VARIOUS CONCERNS
DURING THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME INCLUDE POSSIBLE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ADDITIONAL...FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. WILL DISCUSS THESE ELEMENTS FIRST...AND CONCLUDE WITH SOME
DISCUSSION ABOUT TEMPERATURES...
STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY MONDAY EVENING...THE MILLION DOLLAR
QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE CWA...AS A COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS FROM THE WY/NEB PANHANDLE AREA AT 00Z...TO
ND BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...CLEARLY
THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. IN
ADDITION...12Z NAM PLAN VIEW CINH FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CAPPING TO NEAR-SURFACE BASED
PARCELS...AS EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS INITIALLY IN THE 6-8C RANGE.
ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS INSISTS ON STORMS AFFECTING AT LEAST THE
WESTERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE CWA...THE LAST TWO NAM RUNS AND ALSO 12Z
ECMWF SKIRT CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...AND
THEN RE-FOCUSING EASTWARD ALONG AN AXIS FROM IA TO EASTERN KS
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE ADVANCING 850MB FRONT AND WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL JET AXIS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT GREAT...NAM/GFS
GENERALLY AGREE ON ELEVATED CAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE DURING
THE NIGHT...AND 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT. CERTAINLY THIS
COULD SUPPORT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL TO
QUARTER SIZE REALLY THE MAIN THREAT...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE WILL KEEP POPS AT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND THE SOUTHEAST 1/3
LATER IN THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY CWA-WIDE...AS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR INVADES...AND THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY AXIS HANGS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF KANSAS. THAT
BEING SAID...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL KS
ZONES IN THE TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT TIME FRAMES IN CASE ANY
CONVECTION BRUSHES INTO THE CWA NEAR MODEST LOW LEVEL JETS FOCUSES
FARTHER SOUTH. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE IMPRESSIVE DRYLINE PASSAGE. WITH
DEWPOINTS DECREASING/MIXING DOWN INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S AT BEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING DOWN INTO THE
15-20 PERCENT RANGE MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS FORECAST INTO RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA...THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND
20 MPH OR HIGHER SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS PREVALENT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. DESPITE THE
RECENT GREEN-UP...THE OFFICIAL VEGETATIVE FUEL STATUS IS STILL
FAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH...AND THUS WE COULD EASILY BE HEADING
TOWARD A RED FLAG WARNING ESPECIALLY FOR MUCH OF NEB ZONES.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS GETS PROGRESSIVELY LOWER WITH
TIME...VARIOUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE
ENTER THE CWA IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...AS AT LEAST TWO FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...AND INTERACT WITH AT LEAST MODEST
INCREASING INSTABILITY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND
INSTABILITY RETURNS. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE OVERALL BEST
RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE
EAST...BUT THESE CHANCES COULD EASILY MIGRATE AROUND OR
CHANGE...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO GET VERY OUT OF PHASE WITH
TIMING OF WAVES. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY LOOKING
MODEST...CERTAINLY NO OBVIOUS SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...LEFT DRY AS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
CONCLUDING WITH A BRIEF DISCUSSION ON TEMPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH LOW-MID
70S ALL DAYS...BUT COULD FORESEE READINGS BY NEXT SUNDAY GETTING
BOOSTED CLOSER TO 80 IF A RIDGE BUILDS AS ADVERTISED. REGARDING
LOW TEMPS...DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...GENERALLY NUDGING MANY
AREAS DOWN 2-5 DEGREES FOR BOTH MON NIGHT AND TUES NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR INVADES AND WINDS LIGHTEN. IN FACT...NOW HAVE MID-UPPER 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING
SAID...STILL NO LEGITIMATE FREEZING TEMPS IN SIGHT THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060>062-072>075-082>085.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CALM
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY
EVENING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THIS EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE
NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUE THE RETURN TO INCREDIBLY NICE LATE MARCH
WEATHER...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE.
STARTING OFF AT 20Z THIS AFTERNOON...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...THANKS TO A BROAD DIFFUSE
RIDGE AXIS. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOME COOLER MID LEVEL AIR ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...HAS
RESULTED IN A LEGITIMATE SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN DECK WAS A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED...TEMPS HAVE HAD STILL HAD NO PROBLEMS MAKING IT
INTO AT LEAST THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THIS HOUR...WITH SOME PLACES
POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70 BY DAYS END. AS MENTIONED...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY REVEAL THE DEPARTING
CLOSED LOW AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER FEATURE OF INTEREST...WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING NOW BUILDING ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TO NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF
INTEREST STILL WELL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FLIRT WITH
FAR SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA. BASED ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE
TRENDS...ANY SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CUMULUS GROWTH POTENTIALLY
CONDUCIVE TO SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THESE
COUNTIES.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
QUICKLY FADE AWAY...RESULTING IN ESSENTIALLY CLEAR SKIES AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE IL/IN/KY BORDER AREA BY
12Z. BREEZES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT THE DIRECTION WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE IS FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. VARIOUS MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS...ALONG WITH MET/MAV VISIBILITY GUIDANCE...SUGGEST
THAT THIS LIGHT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY CONDUCIVE
TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST LIGHT FOG HAS
DEVELOPED HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE CWA THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
LARGELY DUE TO MOIST GROUND IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINFALL. GIVEN
THAT PATCHY FOG WORDING HAS ALREADY BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR OVER
24 HOURS NOW IN SOME AREAS...WILL LET IT RIDE...BUT WOULD BE VERY
SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN PATCHY LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
FOR LOW TEMPS...KEPT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN EASTERN
ZONES...BUT BUMPED DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES IN THE WEST...RESULTING
IN A RANGE FROM MID-UPPER 30S WEST...LOW 40S CENTRAL...MID 40S
SOUTHEAST. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING WITH LOWS TUMBLING
INTO THE LOW 30S WEST...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS LOWS
END UP A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT WESTERLY
BREEZES SHOULD HELP HOLD THINGS UP A BIT VERSUS LAST NIGHT.
SATURDAY...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN REMAINS QUITE TRANQUIL...AS THE
HEART OF THE 700-500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS...WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...AND THE
PRIMARY 300MB JET AXIS SNAKING FROM NORTHERN CA THEN EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD/INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS A BIT DRIER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO
TODAY...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...AND IN FACT
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER. TEMP WISE...GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD SUN AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 14-17C RANGE...A NOTABLE JUMP
IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN LIKELY. DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY...BUT
NUDGED UP PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD HIGHER END OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 78-80 RANGE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WE KICK THINGS OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ON ENTERING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO SUNDAY THANKS TO BEING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NOT ONLY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A HEALTHY FAIRLY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NAM A BIT
STRONGER HERE...INDICATING A 50 KT JET...AS OPPOSED TO NEAR 40 KTS
FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF. AT THIS POINT...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING...BUT IF THERE
WERE...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE
CHANCES OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.
A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND HAS BEEN PROJECTED TO DO SO
FOR SOME TIME. THERE ARE SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS
SIMILAR. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PROJECT A STRONGER WAVE THAT EJECTS
INTO THE PLAINS SOONER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WE COULD BE
GETTING CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY WITH HEALTHY WIND FROM THE
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. MODELS GENERALLY PRODUCE THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH THE
BEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO THE NORTH AS WELL. AT THE
SURFACE...BY MONDAY EVENING...THE DRY LINE SHOULD STILL BE WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA...WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PASSED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THEN. SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES...BUT WE MAY WIGGLE
OUT OF MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER BY BEING BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER INITIATES TOWARD EVENING...GIVEN THAT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WE WILL BE TOO CAPPED TO PRODUCED MUCH OF ANYTHING IN THE
REGION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND QUITE LIKELY IN THE EVENING...AND
FOR THIS REASON...I HAVE ALL BUT PULLED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON...SAVE PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CWA IF THE WARM FRONT DOES NOT GET OUT OF THE CWA FAST
ENOUGH...AND HAVE LIMITED THAT SMALL AREA TO LATE
AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE LATEST ECMWF PAINTS SOME QPF
OVER THE NORTHWEST. THIS DOES NOT LOOK PROBABLE AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS AND
THERE IS NO OTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO REALLY
GET THINGS GOING FROM WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE FOR NOW. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
SCENARIO WHERE WE MAY WIND UP GETTING SOME NOCTURNAL HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION AS THE THETA E AXIS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z TUESDAY (MONDAY EVENING)...BUT THIS MAY
BE MORE OF A WEAKER LEFTOVER EVENT...GIVING US ELEVATED
STRONGER/HEAVY RAINER STORMS...BUT PERHAPS NO LONGER SEVERE. I AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PULL SEVERE POTENTIAL OUT OF THE HWO...AS
TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE...AND BEING SO FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AFTER THE WAVE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MORE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH RIDGING TAKING
PLACE. TUESDAY COULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO RED FLAG POTENTIAL IN THE
FAR WESTERN CWA WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY POSSIBLY GETTING NEAR 20
PERCENT AND WEST WINDS APPROACHING SUSTAINED 20 MPH. THE ECMWF
INDICATES A SMALL PERTURBATION RIDING THE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN FRINGE WITH PERHAPS THE AID OF SOME CONVERGENCE
AT 850 MB...BUT EVEN WITH QPF ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF...PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION FOR RUSSEL AND CONCORDIA ARE AROUND 20
PERCENT...AND LOWER THAN THIS IN OUR CWA TO THE NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED...I LEFT LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS FLOW COULD
CONTAIN POTENTIAL SMALL WAVES OF ENERGY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
339 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG COOL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. A REPORT
OF DIME-SIZED HAIL WAS RECEIVED FROM JONES COUNTY. THE STORMS
CROSSING THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED PER LATEST 4 KM WRF AND RUC MODELS...BUT
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATER IN THE EVENING GIVEN BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WORKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD. HAVE LIKELY POPS TAPERING TO HIGH CHANCE AFTER 23Z. POPS
GRADUALLY DROP OVERNIGHT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LESSENING AFTER
ABOUT 03Z OR SO. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 57
TO 62 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SAT...AS UPPER LOW MOVES NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTH...THERE WILL SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ALOFT...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME HAIL PRODUCERS.
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS TOUGH FOR TOMORROW BUT BEST GUESS IN
TAPERING THE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH TO HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY FAR NORTH...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 73 TO 77 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...UPR LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH E NC SUN
NIGHT...WITH DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST WITH SCT SHOWER CHANCES
AS ENOUGH LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPR LOW PASSAGE. MUCH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES THE REGION ON NW FLOW. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM MON AFTERNOON COMPLIMENTS OF DOWNSLOPING
FLOW OFF APPALACHIANS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEND TO GUSTY
WINDS FOR MON UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
HIGH PRES WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME SCT FROST FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WITH MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ATTM NOT EXPECTING FREEZING
TEMPS THOUGH WITH TD`S NEAR 30...COMPLETE DECOUPLING WOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME FAVORED LOCATIONS INLAND TO DIP DOWN NEAR FREEZING.
REINFORCING SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW OCCURS TUE WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALLING A BIT...AND MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD.
RETURN FLOW COMMENCES ON WED WITH WSW FLOW ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
NORTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF TRW FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THOUGH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.
THUR AND FRI WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRES IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...CEILINGS ARE VFR AT PGV AND OAJ AND HAVE
IMPROVED TO MVFR AT EWN AND ISO AS MIXING INCREASES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THIS
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS LIKELY. FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AFTER SOME LIKELY DRY-SLOTTING EARLY IN THE
EVENING...MOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR
CEILINGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315PM SAT...COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS SUN NIGHT AS UPR LOW
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA WITH SCT SHOWERS. MOISTURE WILL ERODE
QUICKLY ON MON AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY ON MON. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES WILL BE IN THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 335 PM SATURDAY...HAVE ADJUSTED START TIME OF SCA TO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS/SEAS WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO RAMP UP PER LATEST
MODELS. WINDS STILL BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET
CURRENTLY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOUTHWEST WAVE ENERGY DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PARKED NEAR
BERMUDA WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FOOT SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SEAS
AND WINDS TO BE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS FOR SUN EVENING. BY 12Z
MON...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS WITH STRONG CAA OCCURRING. SCA WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE WATERS AND SOUNDS BY MON MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
NORTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO TUE WILL KEEP SCA CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FOR THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET EXPECTED HERE.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW SCA BY TUE EVENING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1002 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.DISCUSSION...MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
EVEN MORE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE A DRY EASTERLY FLOW
IS SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE
UPPER 20S T LOWER 30S IN THIS REGION. WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 20S HERE. IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST
A BIT AS WELL. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE AREA
BUT TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT FORECAST LOWS.
LATEST NAM/RUC INDICATE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST HRRR DOES
SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...LEFT THE FORECAST AS IS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE DID REMOVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA AS THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEPICTED OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY MONDAY EVENING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. DICKINSON HAS DROPPED TO MVFR
CEILINGS. BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS INTO REMAINING AERODROMES BETWEEN
06 AND 12 UTC...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
ALSO BROUGHT A MENTION OF THUNDER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
125 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TO
WESTERN KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY THEN
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING AND KEEP THE POPS
CHANCE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. WATCHING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
INDIANA. THE HRRR MODELS IS FORECASTING ALL THAT CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE BY AROUND 08Z....WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. ADJUSTED
MINS UP BASED ON THE CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER KY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
COOLER AIR EXPECTED ALOFT. THIS WILL AT LEAST ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW STILL MAY PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDER
INTO SUNDAY BUT SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY. PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND NW PA.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST AND MAYBE EVEN A HARD FREEZE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
POTENTIAL HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ON
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PASSES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
AROUND 60 DEGREES. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50S...MAYBE UPPER 40S ACROSS NW PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TUE...BUT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL (LOWER 50S) DESPITE A COLD
START. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 40S
OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED WITH THE LOW PASSAGE
BUT WILL BROAD BRUSH THE TIMING GIVEN POST WARM FRONT SCT
SHOWERS...COLD FROPA...AND UPPER LVL LOW TIMING ISSUES. BY THU THE
LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND NE FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
LAKE. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 50S. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD RELYING MORE ON RAW DATA THAN GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD LOWER TO MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR
THE REST OF TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE AIRMASS
COOLS. DAYTIME HEATING SAT SHOULD LIFT CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY VFR BY
LATE MORNING AND HOLD THAT WAY INTO EARLY SAT EVENING THEN DAYTIME
COOLING WILL AGAIN ALLOW CONDITIONS TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE COOLING AND HEATING OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO SOME DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY SAT
MORNING THEN SHRA/TSRA SHOULD AGAIN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SAT
AFTERNOON AS NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FROM DAYTIME HEATING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE EAST AND BECOME
VARIABLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS DO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM THE NORTH AND WE WILL
LIKELY NEED TO HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THAT PERIOD. I
ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE
EAST TOWARD THE LAKE. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET INTO THE REGION.
ONCE THEY ARRIVE...THEY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1025 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT/
CURRENTLY GETTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THIS SEEMS TO LINE UP PRETTY WELL WITH LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION OFF THE RUC. HOWEVER RUC CURRENTLY ONLY ANALYZING LESS
THAN 100 J/KG CAPE IN THAT AREA. WITH REPORTS OF PEA SIZE
HAIL...THAT IS LIKELY UNDERDONE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE RUC THETAE
ADVECTION IN THE 900-800MB LAYER FOR PRECIP CHANCES
TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING OVER TO THE NAM AFTER THAT. ANOTHER SURGE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND A FEW SHOWERS
STARTING TO POP UP DOWN THERE. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
NORTHEAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED. AS THIS REACHES
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ONGOING AND CAP IS
WEAKEST...MAY SEE A BIT MORE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE 6Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. THIS SAME REGION
MAY SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER
DECENT AREA OF THETE ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS.
MUCAPE WILL BE WEAK THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...THUS NOT EXPECTING
ANY MORE THAN PEA SIZE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALOFT...CLOSER TO 1-2K J/KG...WILL STAY WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW. BUT THAT
REGION SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER CAP...THUS THINK
WE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THAT CAPE. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINTS...TRENDED
CLOSER TO THE HRRR...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THEM
RIGHT NOW. /CHENARD
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT/
FOR TONIGHT...EASTERLY SURFACE FETCH OF AIR WILL CONTINUE AND WILL
INCREASE MODESTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND LATE NIGHT HOURS. DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE OUR SMALL POPS THROUGHOUT OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...CINS LOOK TOO HIGH TO SPARK EVEN A SHOWER IN
THAT AREA AND STRATUS ALL DAY HAS NOT HELPED THE INSTABILITY FACTOR
ANY. DID HANG ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF SW MN. COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THAT AREA WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 5 AND 10 THOUSAND FEET...BUT CERTAINLY NO BIG
DEAL. AFTER MIDNIGHT...DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL POP IN OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL SD ZONES WHERE SOME FAIRLY STRONG THETAE ADVECTION
EXISTS...MAXIMIZED AROUND 800MB...PUSHING IT A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD
LATE TONIGHT. COVERAGE APPEARS VERY ISOLATED. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURES...AS READINGS HAVE NOT RISEN MUCH WHERE
CLOUD COVER HAS EXISTED ALL DAY. BUT WITH AN EASTERLY WIND WHICH
WILL NOT GO DOWN AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL OFF ALL THAT MUCH IN OUR AREAS THAT DID NOT WARM UP.
ON MONDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCES WE HAVE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG THETAE ADVECTION LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
LATE IN THE DAY...THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD CLOSER TO THE WIND SHIFT. RIGHT NOW...SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK EXTREMELY LIMITED THROUGH MONDAY WITH A LACK OF FOCUS
MECHANISM TO REALLY HANG YOUR HAT ON. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS OVERALL
IS STAYING WEST OF OUR AREA. IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY ON MONDAY AS
BOTH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...WITH SE WINDS
SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH CATEGORY. AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...HEATING SHOULD BE DRAMATIC IN OUR SW AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE 900 TO 850MB
TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM MAV GUIDANCE ARE THE ONLY
NUMBERS THAT RIGHT NOW LOOK THE CLOSEST FOR THIS FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR ZONES SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE A STRONG 25 DEGREE
THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGHS FROM SW TO NE IN OUR AREA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS FROM WYOMING
TO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION IN
THE FORM OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY SWINGING ACROSS OUR AREA. SEVERE
WEATHER NOW NOT LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ELEVATED CAPE PRETTY WEAK
OVER OUR CWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREDIBLE SHEAR...AROUND 60
KTS...TEARING ANY STORMS APART. THINK THE BIGGER THREAT MIGHT BE A
STRONG WIND GUST WITH THE FRONTAL SURGE...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT
AND PRESSURE RISES OF 6 TO 7 MB JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT
ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS WILL BE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
THETA E ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING FOR A WHILE IN THE NORTHEAST AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING.
BY EARLY ON TUESDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA...TAKING
ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WITH IT. IT WILL BE WINDY WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A TIGHT GRADIENT...AND PRESSURE
RISES...THOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE TAPERING DOWN DURING THE DAY WITH
850 MB WIND SPEEDS FALLING TO 25 TO 35 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY
BE A POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY AT SOME POINT. EVEN WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION...WITH MORE SUN ON TUESDAY HIGHS LOOK TO REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. DEFINITELY STILL LOOKING LIKE AN ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS
STREAMING IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...YIELDING
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. WHILE STILL PLENTY BREEZY OVER THAT AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGHER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FOUND TO THE
NORTH...AND WITH THE EXACT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THROUGH THAT AREA
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME POTENTIAL FIRE HEADLINES WILL
BE EVOLVING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DYING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COOLER AIRMASS FALLING
INTO THE MIDWEST BEHIND THE EXITING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
THAT...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S OVER PORTIONS OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ZONES...TO THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR.
IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...DAMPENED BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH COULD BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF WARMING ON
THURSDAY IN A ENSUING SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH...WITH HIGHS LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GENERAL LONG
WAVE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS BECOME INCREASINGLY
MUDDLED WITH TIMING OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY WITH CEILINGS
AT OR ABOVE BKN050. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AFTER 09Z...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I29 14Z-19Z. STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 15Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS 00-06Z TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLDFRONT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
910 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT/
CURRENTLY GETTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THIS SEEMS TO LINE UP PRETTY WELL WITH LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION OFF THE RUC. HOWEVER RUC CURRENTLY ONLY ANALYZING LESS
THAN 100 J/KG CAPE IN THAT AREA. WITH REPORTS OF PEA SIZE
HAIL...THAT IS LIKELY UNDERDONE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE RUC THETAE
ADVECTION IN THE 900-800MB LAYER FOR PRECIP CHANCES
TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING OVER TO THE NAM AFTER THAT. ANOTHER SURGE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND A FEW SHOWERS
STARTING TO POP UP DOWN THERE. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
NORTHEAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED. AS THIS REACHES
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ONGOING AND CAP IS
WEAKEST...MAY SEE A BIT MORE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE 6Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. THIS SAME REGION
MAY SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER
DECENT AREA OF THETE ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS.
MUCAPE WILL BE WEAK THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...THUS NOT EXPECTING
ANY MORE THAN PEA SIZE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALOFT...CLOSER TO 1-2K J/KG...WILL STAY WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW. BUT THAT
REGION SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER CAP...THUS THINK
WE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THAT CAPE. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINTS...TRENDED
CLOSER TO THE HRRR...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THEM
RIGHT NOW. /CHENARD
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT/
FOR TONIGHT...EASTERLY SURFACE FETCH OF AIR WILL CONTINUE AND WILL
INCREASE MODESTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND LATE NIGHT HOURS. DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE OUR SMALL POPS THROUGHOUT OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...CINS LOOK TOO HIGH TO SPARK EVEN A SHOWER IN
THAT AREA AND STRATUS ALL DAY HAS NOT HELPED THE INSTABILITY FACTOR
ANY. DID HANG ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF SW MN. COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THAT AREA WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 5 AND 10 THOUSAND FEET...BUT CERTAINLY NO BIG
DEAL. AFTER MIDNIGHT...DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL POP IN OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL SD ZONES WHERE SOME FAIRLY STRONG THETAE ADVECTION
EXISTS...MAXIMIZED AROUND 800MB...PUSHING IT A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD
LATE TONIGHT. COVERAGE APPEARS VERY ISOLATED. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURES...AS READINGS HAVE NOT RISEN MUCH WHERE
CLOUD COVER HAS EXISTED ALL DAY. BUT WITH AN EASTERLY WIND WHICH
WILL NOT GO DOWN AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL OFF ALL THAT MUCH IN OUR AREAS THAT DID NOT WARM UP.
ON MONDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCES WE HAVE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG THETAE ADVECTION LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
LATE IN THE DAY...THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD CLOSER TO THE WIND SHIFT. RIGHT NOW...SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK EXTREMELY LIMITED THROUGH MONDAY WITH A LACK OF FOCUS
MECHANISM TO REALLY HANG YOUR HAT ON. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS OVERALL
IS STAYING WEST OF OUR AREA. IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY ON MONDAY AS
BOTH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...WITH SE WINDS
SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH CATEGORY. AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...HEATING SHOULD BE DRAMATIC IN OUR SW AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE 900 TO 850MB
TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM MAV GUIDANCE ARE THE ONLY
NUMBERS THAT RIGHT NOW LOOK THE CLOSEST FOR THIS FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR ZONES SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE A STRONG 25 DEGREE
THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGHS FROM SW TO NE IN OUR AREA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS FROM WYOMING
TO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION IN
THE FORM OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY SWINGING ACROSS OUR AREA. SEVERE
WEATHER NOW NOT LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ELEVATED CAPE PRETTY WEAK
OVER OUR CWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREDIBLE SHEAR...AROUND 60
KTS...TEARING ANY STORMS APART. THINK THE BIGGER THREAT MIGHT BE A
STRONG WIND GUST WITH THE FRONTAL SURGE...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT
AND PRESSURE RISES OF 6 TO 7 MB JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT
ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS WILL BE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
THETA E ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING FOR A WHILE IN THE NORTHEAST AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING.
BY EARLY ON TUESDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA...TAKING
ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WITH IT. IT WILL BE WINDY WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A TIGHT GRADIENT...AND PRESSURE
RISES...THOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE TAPERING DOWN DURING THE DAY WITH
850 MB WIND SPEEDS FALLING TO 25 TO 35 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY
BE A POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY AT SOME POINT. EVEN WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION...WITH MORE SUN ON TUESDAY HIGHS LOOK TO REACH THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. DEFINITELY STILL LOOKING LIKE AN ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS
STREAMING IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...YIELDING
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. WHILE STILL PLENTY BREEZY OVER THAT AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGHER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FOUND TO THE
NORTH...AND WITH THE EXACT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THROUGH THAT AREA
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME POTENTIAL FIRE HEADLINES WILL
BE EVOLVING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DYING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COOLER AIRMASS FALLING
INTO THE MIDWEST BEHIND THE EXITING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
THAT...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S OVER PORTIONS OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ZONES...TO THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR.
IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...DAMPENED BY A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH COULD BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF WARMING ON
THURSDAY IN A ENSUING SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH...WITH HIGHS LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GENERAL LONG
WAVE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS BECOME INCREASINGLY
MUDDLED WITH TIMING OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY WITH CEILINGS
AT OR ABOVE BKN050. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
MISSOURI RIVER AFTER 09Z AND THEN WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED EAST OF I29 BY 18Z
MONDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
323 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPDATED ISC GRIDS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.
AS OF 1250 PM SATURDAY...
UPDATED ISC GRIDS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105 IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.
AS OF 1150 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CONVECTION WHICH TAPERED OFF THIS MORNING ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE TO
RETURN FOR THE WEST...WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL STEADILY
APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. LIKE THE HRRR FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHAPE POPS
CLOSE TO SOLUTION.
AS OF 915 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND POPS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND RADAR
TRENDS. EXPANDED THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL FURTHER NORTH
TO MATCH SPC LATEST DAY1 OUTLOOK. HWO WAS UPDATED. PNS OUT FOR
HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES. ALSO ANOTHER PNS COMING OUT FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING EAST WITH COLD POOL WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SEVERAL ISC UPDATES TODAY WITH THE ACTIVE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECTING SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FIRST AREA WAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 20
MPH. THE NEXT BAND EXTENDS FROM OHIO INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR BRING THIS BAND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
BY 8AM.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THIS MOVING SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...CREATING LARGE LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING THE FREEZING
LEVEL. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.
THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE CLOUDS BRIEFLY CLEAR. WITH ALL THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...HAVE GONE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...
SUNDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR NORTH CAROLINA
COUNTIES. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT TO SEE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81...AS A SLOT OF DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN SOUTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING SO CLOSE TO OUR
AREA...BELIEVE THAT HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN IN THE STRONGER SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT EXPECT MOST HAIL TO BE IN THE PEA TO
DIME SIZE RANGE WHERE IT OCCURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LOW...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST.
IT WILL BE MONDAY MORNING WHEN WE SEE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER
PATTERN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHOT OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR
INTO OUR AREA. MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MILD ACROSS OUR AREA...ALBEIT A LITTLE COOLER...HOWEVER IT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BELIEVE THAT NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED TO GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS IN
VIRGINIA...LOCATIONS THAT HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A START TO THE
GROWING SEASON TO THE SAME EXTENT THAT HAS OCCURRED IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THAT STATED...IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO CONSIDER
PRECAUTIONS AGAINST THE COLD FOR ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION WHICH HAS
STARTED TO GROW IN YOUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY EVENING...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER...WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST...TO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THIS RAIN WILL NOT BE ANY WHERE CLOSE IN INTENSITY TO THIS WEEKENDS
RAIN EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1159 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL FILL IN OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR/MVFR
LEVELS. HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITY TO LIFR AT LYH WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. IF NORTHWEST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN PROBABILITY OF LIFR OR IFR FOG WILL BE
LOWER.
SHRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUN...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE LESS INSTABILITY INDICATED AND A COLDER/MORE STABLE
SFC ENVIRONMENT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH TSRA ACTIVITY SUN...JUST
SHOWERS.
DRIER WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1257 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM SATURDAY...
UPDATED ISC GRIDS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105 IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.
AS OF 1150 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CONVECTION WHICH TAPERED OFF THIS MORNING ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE TO
RETURN FOR THE WEST...WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL STEADILY
APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. LIKE THE HRRR FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHAPE POPS
CLOSE TO SOLUTION.
AS OF 915 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND POPS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND RADAR
TRENDS. EXPANDED THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL FURTHER NORTH
TO MATCH SPC LATEST DAY1 OUTLOOK. HWO WAS UPDATED. PNS OUT FOR
HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES. ALSO ANOTHER PNS COMING OUT FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING EAST WITH COLD POOL WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SEVERAL ISC UPDATES TODAY WITH THE ACTIVE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECTING SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FIRST AREA WAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 20
MPH. THE NEXT BAND EXTENDS FROM OHIO INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR BRING THIS BAND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
BY 8AM.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THIS MOVING SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...CREATING LARGE LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING THE FREEZING
LEVEL. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.
THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE CLOUDS BRIEFLY CLEAR. WITH ALL THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...HAVE GONE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...
SUNDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR NORTH CAROLINA
COUNTIES. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT TO SEE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81...AS A SLOT OF DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN SOUTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING SO CLOSE TO OUR
AREA...BELIEVE THAT HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN IN THE STRONGER SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT EXPECT MOST HAIL TO BE IN THE PEA TO
DIME SIZE RANGE WHERE IT OCCURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LOW...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST.
IT WILL BE MONDAY MORNING WHEN WE SEE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER
PATTERN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHOT OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR
INTO OUR AREA. MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MILD ACROSS OUR AREA...ALBEIT A LITTLE COOLER...HOWEVER IT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BELIEVE THAT NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED TO GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS IN
VIRGINIA...LOCATIONS THAT HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A START TO THE
GROWING SEASON TO THE SAME EXTENT THAT HAS OCCURRED IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THAT STATED...IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO CONSIDER
PRECAUTIONS AGAINST THE COLD FOR ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION WHICH HAS
STARTED TO GROW IN YOUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY EVENING...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER...WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST...TO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THIS RAIN WILL NOT BE ANY WHERE CLOSE IN INTENSITY TO THIS WEEKENDS
RAIN EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1159 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL FILL IN OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR/MVFR
LEVELS. HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITY TO LIFR AT LYH WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. IF NORTHWEST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN PROBABILITY OF LIFR OR IFR FOG WILL BE
LOWER.
SHRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUN...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE LESS INSTABILITY INDICATED AND A COLDER/MORE STABLE
SFC ENVIRONMENT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH TSRA ACTIVITY SUN...JUST
SHOWERS.
DRIER WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1201 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CONVECTION WHICH TAPERED OFF THIS MORNING ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE TO
RETURN FOR THE WEST...WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL STEADILY
APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. LIKE THE HRRR FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHAPE POPS
CLOSE TO SOLUTION.
AS OF 915 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND POPS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND RADAR
TRENDS. EXPANDED THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL FURTHER NORTH
TO MATCH SPC LATEST DAY1 OUTLOOK. HWO WAS UPDATED. PNS OUT FOR
HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES. ALSO ANOTHER PNS COMING OUT FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING EAST WITH COLD POOL WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SEVERAL ISC UPDATES TODAY WITH THE ACTIVE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECTING SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FIRST AREA WAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 20
MPH. THE NEXT BAND EXTENDS FROM OHIO INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR BRING THIS BAND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
BY 8AM.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THIS MOVING SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...CREATING LARGE LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING THE FREEZING
LEVEL. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.
THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE CLOUDS BRIEFLY CLEAR. WITH ALL THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...HAVE GONE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...
SUNDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR NORTH CAROLINA
COUNTIES. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT TO SEE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81...AS A SLOT OF DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN SOUTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING SO CLOSE TO OUR
AREA...BELIEVE THAT HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN IN THE STRONGER SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT EXPECT MOST HAIL TO BE IN THE PEA TO
DIME SIZE RANGE WHERE IT OCCURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LOW...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST.
IT WILL BE MONDAY MORNING WHEN WE SEE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER
PATTERN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHOT OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR
INTO OUR AREA. MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MILD ACROSS OUR AREA...ALBEIT A LITTLE COOLER...HOWEVER IT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BELIEVE THAT NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED TO GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS IN
VIRGINIA...LOCATIONS THAT HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A START TO THE
GROWING SEASON TO THE SAME EXTENT THAT HAS OCCURRED IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THAT STATED...IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO CONSIDER
PRECAUTIONS AGAINST THE COLD FOR ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION WHICH HAS
STARTED TO GROW IN YOUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY EVENING...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER...WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST...TO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THIS RAIN WILL NOT BE ANY WHERE CLOSE IN INTENSITY TO THIS WEEKENDS
RAIN EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1159 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL FILL IN OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR/MVFR
LEVELS. HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITY TO LIFR AT LYH WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. IF NORTHWEST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN PROBABILITY OF LIFR OR IFR FOG WILL BE
LOWER.
SHRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUN...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE LESS INSTABILITY INDICATED AND A COLDER/MORE STABLE
SFC ENVIRONMENT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH TSRA ACTIVITY SUN...JUST
SHOWERS.
DRIER WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
917 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND POPS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND RADAR
TRENDS. EXPANDED THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL FURTHER
NORTH TO MATCH SPC LATEST DAY1 OUTLOOK. HWO WAS UPDATED. PNS
OUT FOR HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES. ALSO ANOTHER PNS COMING OUT FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING EAST WITH COLD POOL
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SEVERAL ISC UPDATES TODAY WITH
THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED.
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECTING SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FIRST AREA WAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 20
MPH. THE NEXT BAND EXTENDS FROM OHIO INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR BRING THIS BAND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
BY 8AM.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THIS MOVING SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...CREATING LARGE LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING THE FREEZING
LEVEL. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.
THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE CLOUDS BRIEFLY CLEAR. WITH ALL THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...HAVE GONE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...
SUNDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR NORTH CAROLINA
COUNTIES. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT TO SEE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81...AS A SLOT OF DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN SOUTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING SO CLOSE TO OUR
AREA...BELIEVE THAT HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN IN THE STRONGER SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT EXPECT MOST HAIL TO BE IN THE PEA TO
DIME SIZE RANGE WHERE IT OCCURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LOW...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST.
IT WILL BE MONDAY MORNING WHEN WE SEE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER
PATTERN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHOT OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR
INTO OUR AREA. MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MILD ACROSS OUR AREA...ALBEIT A LITTLE COOLER...HOWEVER IT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BELIEVE THAT NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED TO GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS IN
VIRGINIA...LOCATIONS THAT HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A START TO THE
GROWING SEASON TO THE SAME EXTENT THAT HAS OCCURRED IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THAT STATED...IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO CONSIDER
PRECAUTIONS AGAINST THE COLD FOR ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION WHICH HAS
STARTED TO GROW IN YOUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY EVENING...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER...WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST...TO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THIS RAIN WILL NOT BE ANY WHERE CLOSE IN INTENSITY TO THIS WEEKENDS
RAIN EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL FILL IN OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR/MVFR
LEVELS. HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITY TO LIFR AT LYH WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. IF NORTHWEST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN PROBABILITY OF LIFR OR IFR FOG WILL BE
LOWER.
SHRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUN...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE LESS INSTABILITY INDICATED AND A COLDER/MORE STABLE
SFC ENVIRONMENT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH TSRA ACTIVITY SUN...JUST
SHOWERS.
DRIER WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
742 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECTING SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FIRST AREA WAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 20
MPH. THE NEXT BAND EXTENDS FROM OHIO INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR BRING THIS BAND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
BY 8AM.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THIS MOVING SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...CREATING LARGE LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING THE FREEZING
LEVEL. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.
THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE CLOUDS BRIEFLY CLEAR. WITH ALL THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...HAVE GONE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...
SUNDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR NORTH CAROLINA
COUNTIES. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT TO SEE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81...AS A SLOT OF DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN SOUTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING SO CLOSE TO OUR
AREA...BELIEVE THAT HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN IN THE STRONGER SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT EXPECT MOST HAIL TO BE IN THE PEA TO
DIME SIZE RANGE WHERE IT OCCURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LOW...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST.
IT WILL BE MONDAY MORNING WHEN WE SEE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER
PATTERN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHOT OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR
INTO OUR AREA. MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MILD ACROSS OUR AREA...ALBEIT A LITTLE COOLER...HOWEVER IT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BELIEVE THAT NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED TO GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS IN
VIRGINIA...LOCATIONS THAT HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A START TO THE
GROWING SEASON TO THE SAME EXTENT THAT HAS OCCURRED IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THAT STATED...IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO CONSIDER
PRECAUTIONS AGAINST THE COLD FOR ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION WHICH HAS
STARTED TO GROW IN YOUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY EVENING...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER...WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST...TO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THIS RAIN WILL NOT BE ANY WHERE CLOSE IN INTENSITY TO THIS WEEKENDS
RAIN EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL FILL IN OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR/MVFR
LEVELS. HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITY TO LIFR AT LYH WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. IF NORTHWEST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN PROBABILITY OF LIFR OR IFR FOG WILL BE
LOWER.
SHRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUN...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE LESS INSTABILITY INDICATED AND A COLDER/MORE STABLE
SFC ENVIRONMENT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH TSRA ACTIVITY SUN...JUST
SHOWERS.
DRIER WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
427 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECTING SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FIRST AREA WAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 20
MPH. THE NEXT BAND EXTENDS FROM OHIO INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR BRING THIS BAND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
BY 8AM.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THIS MOVING SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...CREATING LARGE LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING THE FREEZING
LEVEL. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.
THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE CLOUDS BRIEFLY CLEAR. WITH ALL THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...HAVE GONE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...
SUNDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR NORTH CAROLINA
COUNTIES. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT TO SEE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81...AS A SLOT OF DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN SOUTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING SO CLOSE TO OUR
AREA...BELIEVE THAT HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN IN THE STRONGER SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT EXPECT MOST HAIL TO BE IN THE PEA TO
DIME SIZE RANGE WHERE IT OCCURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LOW...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST.
IT WILL BE MONDAY MORNING WHEN WE SEE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER
PATTERN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHOT OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR
INTO OUR AREA. MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MILD ACROSS OUR AREA...ALBEIT A LITTLE COOLER...HOWEVER IT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BELIEVE THAT NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED TO GREENBRIER COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS IN
VIRGINIA...LOCATIONS THAT HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A START TO THE
GROWING SEASON TO THE SAME EXTENT THAT HAS OCCURRED IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THAT STATED...IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO CONSIDER
PRECAUTIONS AGAINST THE COLD FOR ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION WHICH HAS
STARTED TO GROW IN YOUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY EVENING...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER...WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE WEST...TO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THIS RAIN WILL NOT BE ANY WHERE CLOSE IN INTENSITY TO THIS WEEKENDS
RAIN EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL WRF AND
THE 04Z HRRR RUN...THAT THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL
REACH BLF AND LWB BETWEEN 10Z-12Z THIS MORNING.
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUN...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE LESS INSTABILITY INDICATED AND A COLDER/MORE STABLE SFC
ENVIRONMENT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH TSRA ACTIVITY SUN...JUST SHRA.
DRIER WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS/NF
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
236 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. BY MONDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...
CONTINUED WITH CATEGORICAL/DEFINITE POPS THROUGH 06Z ACROSS THE
CWA...THEN DECREASED TO CHC POPS AFT 06Z AS FIRST WAVE OF PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING CIRCULATION FROM APPROACHING CLOSED LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY HAS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE SINCE SUNSET AND THE ONLY AREA NOW EXHIBITING
ANY LIGHTNING IS NEAR DAN. CONFINED TSRA THREAT TO EC/SE PARTS OF
THE CWA...THEN ENDED BY 06Z. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTERNOON WITH DRY SLOT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE AMPLE INSOLATION...WHICH COMBINED WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS WILL ALSO LOWER. MAIN THREAT WILL BE QUARTER-SIZED
HAIL. STORMS COULD ALSO BE EFFICIENT LIGHTNING PRODUCERS. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS MUCH OF THE SE PART OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SAT AFTERNOON. TEMP AND SKY GRIDS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WSR-88D KFCX SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST
OF I77. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBERS AND
COVERAGE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS THE DEEP CLOSED LOW ALOFT
AND TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. ANY TRAINING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25 AND
1.50 INCHES COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS. TRIED TO INSERT
MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND TRIMMED
THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING. PLAYED LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE MILD ADJMET VALUES WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY IN OUR REGION. AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM BENEATH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. SPC HAS PLACED EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
CONTAIN HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING ACROSS THE USA MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PLAGUE THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THEN CROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MODELS DISPLAYING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
VA/NC COASTAL PIEDMONT SATURDAY NIGHT. EVENTUALLY...THIS TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BECOME AN OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE OUTER BANKS SUNDAY...SLOWING
DOWN THE EXIT OF SHOWERS UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL NOT
BE CONTINUOUS SATURDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA THEN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT BAND COMES IN. EACH
BAND OF SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THE DRYING TIME BETWEEN BANDS AND INCREASE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE
CARE OF MOST OF THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS STRONGER AND
RAINFALL RATES ARE HIGHER...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
AREAL FLOODING BECOMES AN ISSUE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE
OUTER BANKS AND OUT TO SEA. THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PIVOT OVER THE
AREA...CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...THEN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAIN FROM THIS DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
BE CONTINUOUS WITH AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH.
RAIN FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. BRIEF UPSLOPE
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ON WESTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AN EXTENDED
DRY PERIOD PERSIST INTO MID WEEK.
RAIN WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS
SUNDAY...HOWEVER....THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. UNDERCUT THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE (METMOS) WITH RAIN AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
SOUTH SUNDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL RUN ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHTS WILL REMAIN MUGGY UNTIL
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 232 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES OVER THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL NOT BE ANY WHERE CLOSE TO THIS WEEKENDS
RAIN EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL WRF AND
THE 04Z HRRR RUN...THAT THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL
REACH BLF AND LWB BETWEEN 10Z-12Z THIS MORNING.
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUN...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE LESS INSTABILITY INDICATED AND A COLDER/MORE STABLE SFC
ENVIRONMENT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH TSRA ACTIVITY SUN...JUST SHRA.
DRIER WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY...
3/23
ROANOKE 82 IN 2007
LYNCHBURG 91 IN 2007
DANVILLE 86 IN 1966
BLUEFIELD 77 IN 2007
BLACKSBURG 80 IN 1966
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
940 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
940 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MN IN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND IN THE HEART OF THE THETA-E CONVERGENCE
AREA. 00Z NAM HAS A BETTER GRASP ON WHAT IS OCCURRING...ALTHOUGH IT
IS STILL JUST A TAD SLOW. HRRR IR ALSO TOO SLOW BUT INDICATING A
SIMILAR TREND OF CARRYING THIS ACTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.
THE OTHER CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE CLOUD COVER IS
THICKER SOONER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...SO NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...
AT LEAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME. BUT...WITH DRY AIR
STILL ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD STILL SEE ENOUGH OF A DROP
TO GET TO THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID
30S NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF TAYLOR COUNTY...WITH READINGS BELOW
FREEZING OVER FAR NORTHERN WI. WILL KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING GOING
FOR NOW.
AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES ACROSS MN...SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN
MN/WI WITH THE THE FRONTOGENETIC AND THERMODYNAMIC LIFT. THE MAIN
RAIN THREAT MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS. GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT DESPITE AN INVERSION NEAR 900 MB. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN 30-35 KTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 06Z WED. THIS WILL DRAG A NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING COLD
FRONT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 18Z MON...MOVING INTO EASTERN WI BY
MON EVENING. GOOD MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK. THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ALSO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PERHAPS 250-500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. 0-3 KM SHEAR REMAINS HEFTY FROM THE
WEST...AROUND 40 KTS OR SO. STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ON TUE...BUT THE BETTER THREAT FOR
STORMS...INCLUDING STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL...WILL PROBABLY CONFINE
ITSELF TO EASTERN IA/NORTHERN-CENTRAL ILL TUE AFTERNOON-EVENING.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
245 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN 25.12Z GFS...GEM AND ECMWF DEPICTING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
AND RIDING IN BETWEEN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AS THERE IS NO REAL TAP OF GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE. THE 25.12Z GEM IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH QPF...BUT
THE BEST FORCING IS SPLIT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE...KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY DRY. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY ACROSS IOWA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
BEYOND FRIDAY...MUCH DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 25.12Z GFS
CARVES OUT A DEEP 500MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RESULTING IN 850MB TEMPS OF +10C ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN TO +15C FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS NEARLY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
DEPICTS A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING BEFORE A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTH MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAD TO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF ONLY +5C SUNDAY TO AROUND 0C
MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND POOR
RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTIONS BEYOND FRIDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
630 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MID CLOUD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM ADVECTION FOCUS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALL INDICATE A DEEPENING OF THE MOIST LAYER AND THUS A
THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SOME -RA/-SHRA BUT HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING.
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY WILL
TURN SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...EXPECT
SPEEDS TO INCREASE AS WELL. ANTICIPATE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE OPEN KRST LOCATION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
940 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW/RIECK
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
641 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW STRATO-CU DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY EARLIER
TODAY AS MIXING INTO DRIER AIR OVERWHELMED THE SHALLOW COOL AND
MOIST AIRMASS. STILL SOME LINGERING CU OVER EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THOUGH TRENDS SUPPORT IT DISSIPATING AS WELL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. UPSTREAM IS PRETTY QUIET...WITH ONLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS AND HEADLINES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS INCOMING AIRMASS
FROM CANADA IS QUITE DRY AND WILL DROP PWATS TO UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. THOUGH AIRMASS IS VERY DRY...NOT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE SCT-BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER NE WISCONSIN WHERE NE WINDS
FUNNELED DOWN THE BAY...AND ALSO OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE BL
RATHER BREEZY. NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE 1000-850MB WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS...WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR DECOUPLING. AM GOING
TO LEAN TOWARDS DECOUPLING OCCURRING...DUE TO SANDY SOIL EFFECTS AND
CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...MID TWENTY
LOWS SEEM PERFECTLY REASONABLE UP NORTH...AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO
ADJUST HEADLINES. DID RAISE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND WIND. LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S HERE.
MONDAY...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STALL OVER SW WISCONSIN TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL RETURN NE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT
STARTS RETURNING NORTH. NE WISCONSIN WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...BUT CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
EVERYWHERE.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE WEATHER WILL BE
MORE SEASONABLE THAN THE LAST TWO WEEKS WITH FLATTER ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SLEET TO BE
MIXED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LOTS OF SHEAR AND DECENT UPPER
SUPPORT. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LACKING THOUGH WHICH WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF
MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
CANADIAN HIGH SINKS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIKELY HAVE
SOME SUB FREEZING NIGHTS...WHICH IS COMPLETELY NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT MORE OF A CONCERN THIS YEAR DUE TO UNUSUAL
WARMTH THAT HAS STARTED AN EARLY GROWING SEASON. BIG DIFFERENCES
FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ALMOST 180
DEGREES OUT OF PHASE OVER OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME STRATUS OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA
AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WAS EDGING SW TOWARD THE AREA...AND
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING CENTRAL WI. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING
WILL CAUSE A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN NE WINDS IN THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE AREAS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE MVFR STRATUS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS TO THE RHI/GRB/ATW TAFS...BUT LEFT IT OUT OF AUW/CWA FOR
NOW. UPSTREAM MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO MOVE ACROSS C/EC WI
TONIGHT. LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
KIECKBUSCH
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE CUT-OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG IS DRIVING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...CYCLONIC FLOW IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE STRATO-CU
DECK OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS ARE
GROWING LARGER OVER NW WISCONSIN WHERE A DRIER AIRMASS EXISTS
ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...CLOUDS AND FOG ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE HANGING AROUND MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING...WHERE
MOISTURE IS DEEPER THROUGH THE COLUMN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
LINGERS. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...UPSTREAM DRIER AIR WILL MAKE INROADS
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
EVENING. HAVE LEFT SKY CONDITIONS SCATTERED-WEST TO BROKEN-EAST
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE. COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT SO WILL SHOW SKIES
RETURNING TO BROKEN AS THE BOUNDARY WORKS THROUGH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...WHICH WILL HELP
DISSIPATE ANY FOG. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTH.
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...THEN CLEAR THE REGION FOR
THE AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...SO WILL SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE MOVING IN BEHIND THE STRATUS
ALONG THE FRONT. LOWERED DEWPOINTS OVER N-C WISCONSIN FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE LAST FEW
WEEKS. LOWS AND HIGHS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
ON MOST DAYS BUT THAT WILL LIKELY FEEL CHILLY AFTER TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S AND 80S EARLIER THIS WEEK. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND ALL OR NEARLY ALL WILL BE RAIN. THE
FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY AS MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WHATEVER FALLS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND BE MOSTLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS DECENT UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR NEAR THE GROUND FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TO FALL AS SLEET IN NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE GENERALLY MILD
AND DRY WEATHER. A FROST OR FREEZE IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THIS IS USUALLY NOT NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IT MAY
BE A CONCERN FOR ORCHARD OWNERS AS SOEM TREES HAVE BEGUN FLOWERING
DUE TO THE RECENT RECORD WARMTH.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR AND SOME LIFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND...SO IF SKIES CLEAR...POSSIBILITY OF FOG EXISTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BKN MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NW. THE
COMBO OF THE TWO WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE ANY FOG FAIRLY QUICKLY.
AMPLE DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE BKN CIGS BY
MID-MORNING...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
MPC
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. FUNNELING DOWN THE
BAY COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS NEAR GREEN BAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. GUSTS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
302 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
302 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE DWINDLING RAIN
CHANCES THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE CUT OFF LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY
EAST TODAY AS IT TAKES AIM AT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS
AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA ALONG THE WEAKENING
850-925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT WILL ALSO BE PULLING EAST ALONG
WITH THE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOIST LOW LEVELS AND RECENT
RAINFALL...SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...THOUGH NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 1-3SM RANGE THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH
JUST A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK IN SOME LOCATIONS.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST THIS MORNING AND RIDGING
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...DRIER AIR SHOULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION. THE 24.00Z NAM/ECMWF DO PRODUCE SOME QPF THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...LIKELY DUE TO THE FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF MUCAPE THEY DEVELOP. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A
TRIGGER IN THE WAY OF A FORCING MECHANISM...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY FORECAST AFTER 18Z TODAY.
AFTER THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION AND BRING SOME COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT.
THE 24.00Z NAM DOES PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE EITHER HAS THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z OR DO NOT PRODUCE ANY
SHOWERS. THE 24.00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FRONT ACTING AS THE INITIATOR. AGAIN...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY GIVEN THAT THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE
OUTLIER WITH OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPING THE INSTABILITY MUCH LOWER.
COOLER 850MB AIR WILL MAKE IT DOWN ACROSS WISCONSIN TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL LIMIT
HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO WARM.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THIS
SETUP WILL PRODUCE A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS CIRCULATION THROUGH THE
REGION STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT...THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS COLD...SHALLOW AIR MASS COULD COME
CLOSE TO BEING COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE LIQUID TO FREEZE INTO
ICE/SLEET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S
MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI...BUT SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SHALLOW COLD LAYER DROP TO AROUND -5C JUST BELOW 900MB OFF OF THE
24.00Z NAM IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THAT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO
REFREEZE INTO ICE...BUT ITS CLOSE ENOUGH...ALONG WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...TO THE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THAT IT MERITS WATCHING.
AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION WILL STRENGTHEN
AND LIFT NORTH AND BRING SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
302 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
THE BIG QUESTION TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WHETHER THE
TIMING WILL WORK OUT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THE 24.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL FORM A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT DUE TO ISENTROPIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS BAND LIFTING NORTH TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 18Z TUESDAY. GIVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING BETWEEN
THIS FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH APPEARS TO COME THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE A SMALL WINDOW WHERE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP DUE TO THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH TO DEVELOP ANY
STRONG INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
COMING THROUGH...IT APPEARS THAT THE FORCING FROM IT MAY GO MORE
TO THE NORTH AND BE THROUGH BEFORE ANY INSTABILITY CAN FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH...VERY DRY AIR GETS ADVECTED
INTO THE REGION IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THE 24.00Z GFS SHOW MIXING UP TO 800MB WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE
30-40KT RANGE POSSIBLE BASED ON MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETUP FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1135 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED ON IR SATELLITE...KRST IS NOW VERY
CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WITH A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT
OCCURRING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BRIEFLY CLEAR LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW DENSE FOG AND IFR CEILINGS TO QUICKLY FORM. THE
24.01Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT DENSE FOG WILL FORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA JUST TO THE WEST OF KRST. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL RESIDES OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...SO IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT...WOULD EXPECT THE FOG TO
FORM. KLSE IS DEEPER INTO THE CLOUDS...BUT WITH THE SOUTHWARD
DRIFT...STILL HAS A CHANCE OF CLEARING OUT LATE ALLOWING THE FOG
TO FORM. HAVE CONTINUED THE IFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECTING THE FOG TO BEGIN
LIFTING BY MID MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING INTO
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
302 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
332 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FOG TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. CLEARING NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA...AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGED IN
FROM THE DAKOTAS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON CLOUD TRENDS
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT. IF THE WINDS GO CALM OR ANY
CLEARING OCCURS...DENSE FOG WOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE NEARLY
SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL OF THE WISCONSIN COUNTIES
FROM MIDNIGHT INTO MID SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. PLAN ON DECREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW STARTS TO SHIFT EAST.
LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER
50S...POSSIBLY THE UPPER 40S IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SHOWER CHANCES
ENDING ACROSS WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLAN ON DECREASING
CLOUDS AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 6C ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO
AROUND 10 C ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 6 C ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. PLAN
ON HIGHS ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. LOOK FOR LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE
40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...RATHER CHILLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. HAVE LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...THIS
PRODUCES RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TO LOWER 20S. THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SETS UP
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
AS THE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE
INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
332 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
23.12 MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION
FROM THE DAKOTAS. THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR IS INSTABILITY. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO GENERATE HIGH CAPE VALUES...WITH CAPE RANGING
FORM 200 TO 800 J/KG IN A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR RIGHT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SHEAR IS RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR OF 45 TO 55 KT. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY
STRONG...WITH VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KTS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND WARMER AIR SHOULDNT HAVE ANY
PROBLEMS ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
LOW. IF ANY SUNSHINE IS SEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE LEADING TO RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN PUSH INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. IF THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. PLAN
ON QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO TAKE AIM ON
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
1135 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED ON IR SATELLITE...KRST IS NOW VERY
CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WITH A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT
OCCURRING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BRIEFLY CLEAR LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW DENSE FOG AND IFR CEILINGS TO QUICKLY FORM. THE
24.01Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT DENSE FOG WILL FORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA JUST TO THE WEST OF KRST. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL RESIDES OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...SO IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT...WOULD EXPECT THE FOG TO
FORM. KLSE IS DEEPER INTO THE CLOUDS...BUT WITH THE SOUTHWARD
DRIFT...STILL HAS A CHANCE OF CLEARING OUT LATE ALLOWING THE FOG
TO FORM. HAVE CONTINUED THE IFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECTING THE FOG TO BEGIN
LIFTING BY MID MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING INTO
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
332 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
611 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.UPDATE...
DENSE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS DOWN ACROSS
AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE REPORTED CURED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LESS WINDS HAVE ALLEVIATED ANY FIRE DANGERS TODAY. THUS THE RED
FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED A LITTLE WHILE AGO.
ATTENTION TURNS TO MONDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT
UNFOLDING. WENT AHEAD UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES TO RED
FLAG WARNINGS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OUT INTO THE
PANHANDLE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
MAIN CONCERN FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS
MONDAY LOOK TO BE WINDS. A POWERFAL...YET DRY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SET TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING TONIGHT...CREATING VERY
STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
SPREAD OUT INTO THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STARTUS LOOKS TO
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HRRR FORECASTING IFR
CEILINGS AROUND 07Z OR SO. HAVE DELAYED ONSET SOME...BUT WILL GET
A BETTER GRASP ON THE 06Z TAFS.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH DECENT MIXING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. LOW TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHEAST WILL AID IN FOG AND LOW CLOUD
FORMATION NORTH OF A LUSK TO ALLIANCE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY...IMPRESSIVELY STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES TO EASTERN WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON AS ITS ASSOCIATED
POWERFUL PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALL
FACTORS POINTING TO A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT AFTER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THUS WE HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE AND ALSO TO GIVE OUR
CUSTOMERS AN EARLY HEADS UP ON THE STRONG WINDS. COMBINATION OF
STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION INDICATED ON THE 500-300 MB AND 700-500 MB
QG PROGS...ALONG WITH PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PERFECT TIMING ON COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUGGEST A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EVEN 700 MB WINDS PROGGED FROM
50-65 KNOTS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THESE WINDS WILL BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE DUE TO DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM
SUBSIDENCE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE.
ALTHOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SCANT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF A LARAMIE TO CHADRON LINE. QUITE A VARIANCE IN NAM AND
GFS PROGGED HIGH TEMPERATURES AT SOME LOCATIONS...WILL BLEND IN
THE MIDDLE AND BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES FOR THE MOST
LIKELY FORECAST.
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENT
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL AS DECENT DOWNWARD MOTION INDICATED ON THE 500-300 MB AND
700-500 MB QG PROGS...WILL EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9
PM...THEN WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA...THOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS CONTINUE HIGH WINDS
BEYOND 9 PM.
TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WEST TO EAST...AND WEAKER SURFACE
THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A MILD NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT FOR MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. THE TREND OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE WILDLAND FIRE DANGER. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO
CRITICAL LEVELS...HOWEVER WINDS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
NOT REACH CRITERIA. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RANGE WILL MEET
WIND CRITERIA BUT FUELS ARE NOT READY FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THIS
COULD CHANGE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK WITH THE LACK OF
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AMPLIFIES IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY...
WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...IFR CEILINGS SLOW TO SCATTER AT
SIDNEY...BUT SHOULD DO SO BY MID AFTERNOON AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AIRFIELDS AND SCOTTSBLUFF WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM CHADRON THROUGH ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY.
FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30
MPH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE DISTRICT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING. MORE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS SOME OF THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ101-
WYZ102-WYZ106-WYZ107-WYZ108-WYZ116-WYZ117-WYZ118-WYZ119.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 9 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ101-
WYZ102-WYZ106-WYZ107-WYZ108-WYZ116-WYZ117-WYZ118-WYZ119.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ104-
WYZ105-WYZ109-WYZ110-WYZ111-WYZ113-WYZ115.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 9 PM MONDAY FOR NEZ002-
NEZ003-NEZ019-NEZ020-NEZ021-NEZ054-NEZ055-NEZ095-NEZ096.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR NEZ002-
NEZ003-NEZ019-NEZ020-NEZ021-NEZ054-NEZ055-NEZ095-NEZ096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
458 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
325 AM...WEAK UPPER WAVE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
AND SOUTHWEST WI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW TS. MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THIS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
IL LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT PERHAPS
MANY AREAS ONLY SEEING A TRACE...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. DESPITE
THE LOW PRECIP CHANCES...APPEARS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AS TEMPS ARE NOW
FALLING THROUGH THE 40S WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY INTO THE UPPER
30S. STILL EXPECT SOME SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BUT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT TRICKY. OVERALL ONLY TWEAKED THEM LOWER A
DEGREE OR TWO BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE COOLER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
FLOW TURNS BACK SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. BUT
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL. COULD SEE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS
THIS EVENING AND DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMES...
COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE
LOWS COULD BE IN THE MID 30S. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY
HEADLINES THIS MORNING AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE CLOSELY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOISTURE POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A TONGUE OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE THE MID/UPPER 50S. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE PARTIALLY LIMITED BY STRONG FORCING FROM THIS AREA NORTH
AND BEST INSTABILITY FROM THIS AREA SOUTH...WE/LL BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE. BEST TIMING APPEARS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING.
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
COOLER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS ENDS PRECIP A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF SATURDAY BUT OVERALL BOTH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. CMS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
255 PM CDT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEDNESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER. STRONG WEST WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...BUT
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 10Z...
* CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT
* NE WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING
* PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING
SHEA
//DISCUSSION...10Z...
THE MAIN LOW END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM ALL OF
THE TERMINALS...BUT SOME STRATOCU HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHERE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WORKING SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND WHILE IT WILL LIKELY
BE A NARROW CORRIDOR THAT IS IMPACTED...IT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
ORD. OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR
IF/WHEN PRECIP OCCURS. RADAR/TIME EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE SHOWERS
INTO RFD BY 10Z AND ACROSS ORD/MDW BY 12-13Z. THE ONE BIG POSITIVE
FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS
INTRUDING. WHILE RADAR RETURNS WILL LOOK IMPRESSIVE...MUCH WILL
FALL AS VIRGA TO START AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND FROM VFR
BASES. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BLEED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SHOULD SHUT OFF CHANCES FOR ORD/MDW/DPA/GYY EARLY...BUT RFD MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER.
SHEA
//PREVIOUS 06Z DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING STRATUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND AND WEST OF THE
EASTERN TERMINALS AS OF 06Z...AND THE TREND OF CIGS RAISING AND
OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING...WILL CONTINUE. 11-3.9UM SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH WITH REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...WITH THE BULK OF THE LAKE STRATUS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE
MKE TO RAC CORRIDOR. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE UGN/PWK AND MAYBE ORD TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO...BUT RAISE HEIGHTS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE COMPASS...GOING FROM NE
TO E AND EVENTUALLY SE-SSE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE DOWN TREND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL HOLD OUT ON
THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS GUSTS THROUGH THE 18Z HOUR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TRICKIEST FOR RFD THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
BRINGING SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF LSE...SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS RFD INTO THE 12Z HOUR. RAW EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO 11Z...BUT ONE THING THE MODELS MAY BE STRUGGLING
WITH IS HOW DRY THE AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACTUALLY IS.
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LAST BEFORE FALLING
APART...AND WILL ADD A PERIOD OF VCSH FROM 11 TO 15Z DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS FALLING WITH RESPECT TO
ORD AND MDW...IF THEY WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE 03Z HRRR IS
REALLY INCREASING THE SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS
NECESSARY.
SHEA
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 10Z...
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST
* MODERATE TO LOW WITH ORD/MDW STAYING DRY THIS MORNING
SHEA
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
* TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FROM MID
AFTN INTO THE EVE. LLWS POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
* WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT.
* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
SHEA
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO COME RACING DOWN THE LAKE THIS
MORNING. WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS TO SEE GALE FORCE
GUSTS. THOSE HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FLOW WILL
THEN ORIENT ITSELF TO MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT..AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW 30 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
LAKE...WITH GOOD MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY PEAKING
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. IT IS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH...BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH
DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIANA SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH THAT
THEY WILL REACH FULL GALE CRITERIA AS OPPOSED TO THE ILLINOIS
SHORES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL THEN CROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SHEA
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4
AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
410 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
325 AM...WEAK UPPER WAVE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
AND SOUTHWEST WI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW TS. MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THIS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
IL LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT PERHAPS
MANY AREAS ONLY SEEING A TRACE...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. DESPITE
THE LOW PRECIP CHANCES...APPEARS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AS TEMPS ARE NOW
FALLING THROUGH THE 40S WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY INTO THE UPPER
30S. STILL EXPECT SOME SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BUT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT TRICKY. OVERALL ONLY TWEAKED THEM LOWER A
DEGREE OR TWO BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE COOLER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
FLOW TURNS BACK SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. BUT
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL. COULD SEE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS
THIS EVENING AND DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMES...
COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE
LOWS COULD BE IN THE MID 30S. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY
HEADLINES THIS MORNING AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE CLOSELY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOISTURE POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A TONGUE OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE THE MID/UPPER 50S. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE PARTIALLY LIMITED BY STRONG FORCING FROM THIS AREA NORTH
AND BEST INSTABILITY FROM THIS AREA SOUTH...WE/LL BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE. BEST TIMING APPEARS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING.
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
COOLER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS ENDS PRECIP A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF SATURDAY BUT OVERALL BOTH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. CMS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
255 PM CDT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEDNESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER. STRONG WEST WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...BUT
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT
* NE WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING
* PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING OUT WEST
SHEA
//DISCUSSION...09Z...
THE MAIN LOW END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM ALL OF
THE TERMINALS...BUT SOME STRATOCU HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHERE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WORKING SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND WHILE IT WILL LIKELY
BE A NARROW CORRIDOR THAT IS IMPACTED...IT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
ORD. OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR
IF/WHEN PRECIP OCCURS.
SHEA
//PREVIOUS 06Z DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING STRATUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND AND WEST OF THE
EASTERN TERMINALS AS OF 06Z...AND THE TREND OF CIGS RAISING AND
OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING...WILL CONTINUE. 11-3.9UM SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH WITH REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...WITH THE BULK OF THE LAKE STRATUS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE
MKE TO RAC CORRIDOR. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE UGN/PWK AND MAYBE ORD TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO...BUT RAISE HEIGHTS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE COMPASS...GOING FROM NE
TO E AND EVENTUALLY SE-SSE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE DOWN TREND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL HOLD OUT ON
THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS GUSTS THROUGH THE 18Z HOUR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TRICKIEST FOR RFD THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
BRINGING SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF LSE...SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS RFD INTO THE 12Z HOUR. RAW EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO 11Z...BUT ONE THING THE MODELS MAY BE STRUGGLING
WITH IS HOW DRY THE AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACTUALLY IS.
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LAST BEFORE FALLING
APART...AND WILL ADD A PERIOD OF VCSH FROM 11 TO 15Z DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAT ORD/MDW
WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE 03Z HRRR IS REALLY INCREASING THE
SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHEA
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON BASES FALLING BELOW 015 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST
* MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH ORD/MDW STAYING DRY THIS
MORNING
SHEA
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
* TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FROM MID
AFTN INTO THE EVE. LLWS POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
* WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT.
* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
SHEA
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO COME RACING DOWN THE LAKE THIS
MORNING. WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS TO SEE GALE FORCE
GUSTS. THOSE HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FLOW WILL
THEN ORIENT ITSELF TO MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT..AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW 30 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
LAKE...WITH GOOD MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY PEAKING
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. IT IS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH...BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH
DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIANA SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH THAT
THEY WILL REACH FULL GALE CRITERIA AS OPPOSED TO THE ILLINOIS
SHORES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL THEN CROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SHEA
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4
AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
325 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
325 AM...WEAK UPPER WAVE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
AND SOUTHWEST WI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW TS. MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THIS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
IL LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT PERHAPS
MANY AREAS ONLY SEEING A TRACE...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. DESPITE
THE LOW PRECIP CHANCES...APPEARS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AS TEMPS ARE NOW
FALLING THROUGH THE 40S WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY INTO THE UPPER
30S. STILL EXPECT SOME SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BUT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT TRICKY. OVERALL ONLY TWEAKED THEM LOWER A
DEGREE OR TWO BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE COOLER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
FLOW TURNS BACK SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. BUT
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL. COULD SEE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS
THIS EVENING AND DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMES...
COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE
LOWS COULD BE IN THE MID 30S. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY
HEADLINES THIS MORNING AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE CLOSELY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOISTURE POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A TONGUE OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE THE MID/UPPER 50S. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE PARTIALLY LIMITED BY STRONG FORCING FROM THIS AREA NORTH
AND BEST INSTABILITY FROM THIS AREA SOUTH...WE/LL BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE. BEST TIMING APPEARS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING.
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
COOLER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS ENDS PRECIP A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF SATURDAY BUT OVERALL BOTH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. CMS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
255 PM CDT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEDNESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER. STRONG WEST WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...BUT
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT
* NE WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING
* PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING
SHEA
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
EARLY EVENING STRATUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND AND WEST OF THE
EASTERN TERMINALS AS OF 06Z...AND THE TREND OF CIGS RAISING AND
OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING...WILL CONTINUE. 11-3.9UM SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH WITH REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...WITH THE BULK OF THE LAKE STRATUS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE
MKE TO RAC CORRIDOR. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE UGN/PWK AND MAYBE ORD TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO...BUT RAISE HEIGHTS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE COMPASS...GOING FROM NE
TO E AND EVENTUALLY SE-SSE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE DOWN TREND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL HOLD OUT ON
THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS GUSTS THROUGH THE 18Z HOUR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TRICKIEST FOR RFD THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
BRINGING SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF LSE...SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS RFD INTO THE 12Z HOUR. RAW EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO 11Z...BUT ONE THING THE MODELS MAY BE STRUGGLING
WITH IS HOW DRY THE AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACTUALLY IS.
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LAST BEFORE FALLING
APART...AND WILL ADD A PERIOD OF VCSH FROM 11 TO 15Z DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAT ORD/MDW
WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE 03Z HRRR IS REALLY INCREASING THE
SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHEA
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON BASES FALLING BELOW 015 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH ORD/MDW STAYING DRY THIS MORNING
SHEA
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
* TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FROM MID
AFTN INTO THE EVE. LLWS POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
* WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT.
* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
SHEA
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO COME RACING DOWN THE LAKE THIS
MORNING. WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS TO SEE GALE FORCE
GUSTS. THOSE HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FLOW WILL
THEN ORIENT ITSELF TO MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT..AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW 30 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
LAKE...WITH GOOD MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY PEAKING
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. IT IS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH...BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH
DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIANA SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH THAT
THEY WILL REACH FULL GALE CRITERIA AS OPPOSED TO THE ILLINOIS
SHORES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL THEN CROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SHEA
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4
AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY INCLUDE TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ANOTHER REMARKABLY MILD DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING NEAR THE LAKE WHERE MORE ESTABLISHED LAKE BREEZE HAS
KNOCKED TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH EVEN SOME VERY LOW
STRATUS/DENSE FOG RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE. FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
SKY COVER WILL BE TRICKY THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE LAKE. SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CREST THE RIDGE AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE. IN FACT...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD
EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. LAKE EFFECT STRATUS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING
IN ALOFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT
INSTABILITY STRATOCUMULUS LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE MONDAY BUT SURFACE HIGH ISN`T QUITE AS
PROGRESSIVE RESULTING IN A CHILLY NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE LAKE. IN
FACT...WITH THE WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND THE CLOUD COVER TEMPS MAY BE
HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WEEKS. ONE
POSSIBLE SAVING GRACE KEEPING IT FROM BEING EVEN COLDER TOMORROW IS
THE FACT LAKE TEMPS ARE APPROACHING 50F NOW...SO EVEN WITH A LONG
FETCH NORTHEAST WIND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE HELD IN THE 40S.
WINDS SHOULD VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
BY TUESDAY WITH WARMER AIR EVENTUALLY SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA.
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
PLUS THE COOL START TO THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS PROBABLY
HOLDING IN THE 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TRACK EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN
DOES NT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED FROM THE
STRONGER/DEEPER ASCENT THAT OCCURS FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACK. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH
OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS FRONTAL TIMING IS LESS THAN IDEAL AND
MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH MARGINAL TO DECENT AT BEST. HAVE
MAINTAINED JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITH STRONG
MIXING AND OFFSHORE FLOW PLUS COLDER AIR LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AS WARM IF NOT A BIT A WARMER OF A DAY
THAN TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP
CLOSER TO IN LINE WITH WRF-NAM 2M TEMPS...BUT EVEN GOING FORECAST
COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE STILL GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND FULL
SUNSHINE.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE.
DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH VARYING IDEAS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS
WELL AS TIMING/INTENSITY OF VARIOUS WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW.
GENERALLY DOES APPEAR THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO BOUTS OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WITH TIMING NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT HAVE
JUST BLANKETED SEVERAL PERIODS WITH SOME LOW ENDS POPS HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH AT THIS DISTANCE IT CERTAINLY IS NOT LOOKING
LIKE A WASH OUT.
IZZI
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
255 PM CDT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEDNESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER. STRONG WEST WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...BUT
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT
* NE WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING
* PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING
SHEA
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
EARLY EVENING STRATUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND AND WEST OF THE
EASTERN TERMINALS AS OF 06Z...AND THE TREND OF CIGS RAISING AND
OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING...WILL CONTINUE. 11-3.9UM SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH WITH REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...WITH THE BULK OF THE LAKE STRATUS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE
MKE TO RAC CORRIDOR. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE UGN/PWK AND MAYBE ORD TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO...BUT RAISE HEIGHTS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE COMPASS...GOING FROM NE
TO E AND EVENTUALLY SE-SSE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE DOWN TREND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL HOLD OUT ON
THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS GUSTS THROUGH THE 18Z HOUR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TRICKIEST FOR RFD THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
BRINGING SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF LSE...SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS RFD INTO THE 12Z HOUR. RAW EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO 11Z...BUT ONE THING THE MODELS MAY BE STRUGGLING
WITH IS HOW DRY THE AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACTUALLY IS.
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LAST BEFORE FALLING
APART...AND WILL ADD A PERIOD OF VCSH FROM 11 TO 15Z DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAT ORD/MDW
WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE 03Z HRRR IS REALLY INCREASING THE
SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHEA
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON BASES FALLING BELOW 015 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH ORD/MDW STAYING DRY THIS MORNING
SHEA
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
* TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FROM MID
AFTN INTO THE EVE. LLWS POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
* WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT.
* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
SHEA
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO COME RACING DOWN THE LAKE THIS
MORNING. WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS TO SEE GALE FORCE
GUSTS. THOSE HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FLOW WILL
THEN ORIENT ITSELF TO MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT..AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW 30 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
LAKE...WITH GOOD MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY PEAKING
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. IT IS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH...BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH
DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIANA SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH THAT
THEY WILL REACH FULL GALE CRITERIA AS OPPOSED TO THE ILLINOIS
SHORES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL THEN CROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SHEA
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4
AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
254 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND AN E/NE FETCH OVER THE COLD
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74 WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50S. FURTHER SOUTH...HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
MINNESOTA...BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING.
AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD...FRONT WILL GET
PUSHED BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
SOARING WELL INTO THE 70S. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...FLATTENING THE PREVAILING RIDGE AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES REACHING THE
-4 TO -6C RANGE. DESPITE GOOD INSTABILITY...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
WILL BE MINIMAL AND BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
N/NW. AS A RESULT...AM ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-55 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE BOARD TUESDAY NIGHT.
FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE
KILX CWA DURING THE MORNING. DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE...PACIFIC
ORIGIN AIRMASS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTER A WARM/DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
COUNTRY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...CAUSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. WITH A BOUNDARY IN PLACE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FLOWING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF...AND A SHORT-WAVE TO PROVIDE
LIFT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD BET FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...WAVE WILL PASS TO THE EAST AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN IL AND IS NEARING PIA/BMI. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST RUC DO
SUPPORT CLOUD STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AT ABOUT 5K FT FOR ALL TAF
SITES...WITH A PERIOD OF 1K-2K FT CLOUDS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME
FOR ONLY PIA/BMI. ALTHOUGH THE SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MVFR CLOUDS IN
THE SPI-DEC-CMI CORRIDOR... WILL GIVE THEM A SCT LAYER AT 2K FT.
BROKEN VFR STRATOCU WILL THEN DOMINATE ALL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z...THEN SOME BREAKUP MAY OCCUR SPI-DEC-CMI. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST 14-18 KT AND HOLD UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
04
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
108 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY INCLUDE TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ANOTHER REMARKABLY MILD DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING NEAR THE LAKE WHERE MORE ESTABLISHED LAKE BREEZE HAS
KNOCKED TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH EVEN SOME VERY LOW
STRATUS/DENSE FOG RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE. FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
SKY COVER WILL BE TRICKY THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE LAKE. SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CREST THE RIDGE AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE. IN FACT...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD
EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. LAKE EFFECT STRATUS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING
IN ALOFT WILL LIKELY SEE AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT
INSTABILITY STRATOCUMULUS LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE MONDAY BUT SURFACE HIGH ISN`T QUITE AS
PROGRESSIVE RESULTING IN A CHILLY NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE LAKE. IN
FACT...WITH THE WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND THE CLOUD COVER TEMPS MAY BE
HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WEEKS. ONE
POSSIBLE SAVING GRACE KEEPING IT FROM BEING EVEN COLDER TOMORROW IS
THE FACT LAKE TEMPS ARE APPROACHING 50F NOW...SO EVEN WITH A LONG
FETCH NORTHEAST WIND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE HELD IN THE 40S.
WINDS SHOULD VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
BY TUESDAY WITH WARMER AIR EVENTUALLY SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA.
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
PLUS THE COOL START TO THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS PROBABLY
HOLDING IN THE 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TRACK EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN
DOESNT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED FROM THE
STRONGER/DEEPER ASCENT THAT OCCURS FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW TRACK. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH
OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS FRONTAL TIMING IS LESS THAN IDEAL AND
MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH MARGINAL TO DECENT AT BEST. HAVE
MAINTAINED JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITH STRONG
MIXING AND OFFSHORE FLOW PLUS COLDER AIR LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AS WARM IF NOT A BIT A WARMER OF A DAY
THAN TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP
CLOSER TO IN LINE WITH WRF-NAM 2M TEMPS...BUT EVEN GOING FORECAST
COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE STILL GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND FULL
SUNSHINE.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE.
DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH VARYING IDEAS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS
WELL AS TIMING/INTENSITY OF VARIOUS WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW.
GENERALLY DOES APPEAR THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO BOUTS OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WITH TIMING NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT HAVE
JUST BLANKETED SEVERAL PERIODS WITH SOME LOW ENDS POPS HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH AT THIS DISTANCE IT CERTAINLY IS NOT LOOKING
LIKE A WASH OUT.
IZZI
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
255 PM CDT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEDNESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER. STRONG WEST WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...BUT
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT
* NE WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING
* PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING
SHEA
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
EARLY EVENING STRATUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND AND WEST OF THE
EASTERN TERMINALS AS OF 06Z...AND THE TREND OF CIGS RAISING AND
OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING...WILL CONTINUE. 11-3.9UM SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH WITH REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...WITH THE BULK OF THE LAKE STRATUS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE
MKE TO RAC CORRIDOR. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE UGN/PWK AND MAYBE ORD TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO...BUT RAISE HEIGHTS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE COMPASS...GOING FROM NE
TO E AND EVENTUALLY SE-SSE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE DOWN TREND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL HOLD OUT ON
THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS GUSTS THROUGH THE 18Z HOUR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TRICKIEST FOR RFD THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
BRINGING SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF LSE...SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS RFD INTO THE 12Z HOUR. RAW EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO 11Z...BUT ONE THING THE MODELS MAY BE STRUGGLING
WITH IS HOW DRY THE AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACTUALLY IS.
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LAST BEFORE FALLING
APART...AND WILL ADD A PERIOD OF VCSH FROM 11 TO 15Z DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAT ORD/MDW
WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE 03Z HRRR IS REALLY INCREASING THE
SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHEA
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON BASES FALLING BELOW 015 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH ORD/MDW STAYING DRY THIS MORNING
SHEA
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
* TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FROM MID
AFTN INTO THE EVE. LLWS POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
* WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT.
* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
SHEA
&&
.MARINE...
247 PM CDT
DENSE FOG AND GALE POTENTIAL TUESDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INTO EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE ACROSS EASTER
QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WILL MERGE TO THE
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY THEN DEEPEN. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
IS MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MERGING
LOWS AND THE HIGH WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING
LEADING TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT.
EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BY MID/LATE EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LAKE. SPEEDS WILL EASE OFF MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE
LAKE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR WINDS AND WAVES...THOUGH WINDS
SHOULD EASE MONDAY...WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT WHICH WILL SUPPORT UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LAKE. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS RAMP UP MIXING WILL
BRING HIGHER SPEEDS TO THE LAKE SURFACE AND AM CONTINUING TO SEE
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR 35-40 KT GALES FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE TRICKY PART WILL BE ACCOUNTING FOR
INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT DEVELOPING AN INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT
MIXING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DECREASING GUSTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT SO SPEEDS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT PROBABLY BELOW GALE AS
THIS OCCURS. THE DIRECTIONS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL. WILL HOIST A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT IN
EFFECT AND LESSER CONFIDENCE IN GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE IL/IN
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS FREE OF HEADLINES FOR NOW
BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO AT LEAST EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST...THEN NORTHWEST THEN
NORTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
TO THE EAST.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 830 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR CENTRAL IL TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ENTERING
NORTHERN IL WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE
AREA BY SUNRISE. ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING TO THE
NORTH OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH LIES
STATIONARY ACROSS NEB. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND
DO NOT EXPECT THE NEED FOR CHANGES THEREIN.
04
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN IL AND IS NEARING PIA/BMI. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST RUC DO
SUPPORT CLOUD STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AT ABOUT 5K FT FOR ALL TAF
SITES...WITH A PERIOD OF 1K-2K FT CLOUDS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME
FOR ONLY PIA/BMI. ALTHOUGH THE SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MVFR CLOUDS IN
THE SPI-DEC-CMI CORRIDOR... WILL GIVE THEM A SCT LAYER AT 2K FT.
BROKEN VFR STRATOCU WILL THEN DOMINATE ALL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z...THEN SOME BREAKUP MAY OCCUR SPI-DEC-CMI. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST 14-18 KT AND HOLD UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
04
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
SEVERAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT. THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BRING
COLDER TEMPS FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...HIGHS ON TUES WILL JUMP 10-12 DEG
AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON WED WITH A COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE
THIRD COLD FRONT IS A BIT IN QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL
ARRIVE EITHER SATURDAY OR SAT NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGES...WHICH MEANS WE HAVE SEVERAL DAYS WITH
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET...EXCEPT FOR IN
OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE CU FIELD APPEARS MORE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN. AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR COUNTIES TONIGHT...
IT WILL BRING SOME LOWER DEWPOINT AIR WITH IT. HOWEVER...AS TEMPS
DROP BEFORE THE DRY AIR ARRIVES, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE...SO THAT SHOULD PREVENT ANY DENSE FOG.
MONDAY WILL CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE
TOWARD IL ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF RAIN
WILL STALL OUT IN IOWA MON/MON NIGHT. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS C IL. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL REBOUND ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY BEHIND THAT WARM FRONT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BAND OF
PRECIP ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE COLD AIR WILL LAG A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...SO HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MAY REACH THE MID 70S AGAIN...BUT NORTHERN AREAS MAY BE HELD DOWN IN
THE UPPER 60S WITH FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY WILL BE OUR NEXT COOL DAY...AS HIGHS DROP 10-12 DEG BELOW
WED HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S
SOUTHWEST. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.
AS FOR THE FAR EXTENDED...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE STRONGER WITH
THE LEADING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THAN THE GFS. THEN GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY BOTH
SYSTEMS...AS DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY AS COLD AIR PASSES BY JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1153 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.AVIATION...
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE OVRNGT AND MON MORNING AS
COLD MOIST AIR ADVECTS IN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR IFR CIGS ESPECIALLY NEAR MISSISSIPPI RVR TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THROUGH MID AM MON ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH VSBYS
2-6SM. AREA OF SHOWERS OVER MN WILL DRIFT E/SE AND MAY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF NE IA AND ESPECIALLY NW IL LATE TNGT THROUGH MON AM.
DBQ TERMINAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF FORCING AND HAVE GONE WITH
VCSH FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS OVRNGT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH REST OF TAF CYCLE.
EXPECT CIGS TO CLIMB INTO VFR DURING THE AFTN AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH
MON EVE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER WESTERN MN OCCURRING IN ZONE
OF ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE IN 850-700 MB
LAYERS. 00Z NAM SHOWS WARM ADVECTION AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE
INCREASING OVRNGT IN AREAS MAINLY N/NE OF QUAD CITIES. SOME OF THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF HRRR AND RUC BACKUP MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
PCPN COMING INTO NORTH... ALBEIT SLOW ON TRENDS. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ADDED POPS TO AREAS NORTH OF QUAD CITIES OVRNGT AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MON. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP OUT SHORTLY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
THE MORNING UA ANALYSIS HAD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A
S/W OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE S/W WAS NOT
EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS AT 18Z HOWEVER THERE
WAS A NICE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
TRAILING NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE 18Z ANALYSIS
SHOWED 70 PLUS TEMPS AS FAR NORTH AS KDBQ AND TEMPS AROUND 60 IN
NORTHEAST IA AND SOURTHEASTERN MN.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS COOL AND SATURATE.
MID CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL WAA. FORCING OVERNIGHT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR OFF LAKE
MI...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED
LAYER WHICH ISN/T FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE. SOME LOW POPS WERE
INCLUDED FOR MONDAY WHEN LOW AND MID LEVEL FGEN SPREADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN CWFA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COLDER THAN WHAT THE REGION HAS EXPERIENCED THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWFA.
IT/S QUESTIONABLE IF THE COLDER AIR WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST CWFA
BY MORNING SO KEPT MINS THERE IN THE LOWER 50S. MONDAY
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL NOT
REBOUND MUCH WITH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS...CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN SHOWERS SO KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ..DLF..
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER...BUT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES TO THEN FOLLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK. RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED.
MONDAY NIGHT...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WITH 850 WINDS PROGGED
FROM 50 TO 70 KTS...IS SHOWN SURGING GULF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THIS IS DIRECTED WELL TO
OUR WEST...THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRAY ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS OVER THE ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO POSSIBLY OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EDGE OF THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO OUR WEST TO WANDER INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO COVER THIS.
OTHERWISE...THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRISK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UNTIL A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE
SURFACE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MORNING...THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
OUT OF THE RIDGE WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S NORTH TO LOWER
50S SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS DEPICT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE
AT OR BELOW 850 MB AND HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EVEN WITH
THE CLOUD COVER...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST. THIS WARMING...COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S IS SHOWN BY THE NAM RESULTING
IN MUCAPES IN THE RANGE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS...COMBINED WITH
30 TO 40 KTS OF SURFACE TO 6 KM SPEED SHEAR WITH VEERING PROFILES...
MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LOW END SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE CURRENT SPC DAY
3 OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER OUR SE COUNTIES. ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTS POPS IN A 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE. THE BACK EDGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BE ON-GOING AT 00Z OVER THE FAR EAST AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES GOING THERE INTO TUE EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED INTO
THU. WED NIGHT MAY SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NORTH AS THE
RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE...THE MEN FROM
THE 00Z RUN...INDICATES POCKETS OF MID 30S OVER EAST CENTRAL IA INTO
NW IL. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS TREND...BUT HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH MINS FROM THE UPPER
30S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN SENDING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW THROUGH KS TO CENTRAL IL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW BEYOND AS THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HANDLE ENSUING SHORTWAVES...RESULTING IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THAT
WILL LIKELY BECOME DEFINED IN LATER FORECASTS. ..SHEETS..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
150 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
03Z WATER IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION ENTERING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN A SIMILAR POSITION FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 00Z
RAOBS INDICATED A SHARP CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH FAIRLY LARGE INCREASES IN MOISTURE BELOW H75
NOTED AT KDDC AND KLBF FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS EVIDENCED BY +0.3
CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THAT TIME.
ASIDE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG AND VERY SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS/FIRE WX AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY-TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LATEST RUNS OF HRRR TRYING TO
BREAK OUT SOME WEAK CONVECTION AROUND 12Z...ISENTROPIC FIELDS
SUGGEST BULK OF FORCING ALONG NOSE OF LLJ WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA AND WITH CONDENSATION DEFICITS IN EXCESS OF 130
MB...SEEMS DOUBTFUL ANY MORNING INSTABILITY WOULD BE REALIZED AND
THINK BULK OF MORNING WX CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND ANY LINGERING
FOG AROUND SUNRISE. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY AND ADJUST AS
TRENDS DICTATE.
BEST...ALBEIT SMALL...CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z
AS CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE REALLY BEGINS TO SHARPEN AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. AREA WILL STILL BE PRETTY FAR REMOVED FROM
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS WYOMING
AND WITH STRONG CAP/CINH IN PLACE HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND IF STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG AS
THEY MOVED AWAY FROM SFC FORCING. STILL FEEL SMALL POPS WARRANTED
AND GIVEN SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROFILES THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO AS THINGS INITIATE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST IN THE EVENING. WITH THE RATHER SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND FIRE WX WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS SHOULD PRETTY EASILY MEET ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT HAVE A FEW CONCERNS THAT
HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA MAY OCCUR WITH THE MUCH
DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF DRYLINE. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
NOT REALLY GIVING A SOLID CONSENSUS IN THIS REGARD AND WITH MIXED
LAYER DATA GENERALLY TOPPING AT AROUND 48 KTS AND A WEAKER SFC LOW
THAN LAST WEEK...THINK CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO UPGRADE ADVISORY TO
WARNING AT THIS POINT. FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THINK DRY LINE
WILL HUG KS/CO BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
OCCUR TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER AS LOW BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...EXPECT DRYLINE TO START ADVANCING EASTWARD. IT
WILL BE MARGINAL FROM A DURATION ASPECT...BUT FEEL UPGRADING FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO WARNING IS APPROPRIATE.
TUESDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH ADVANCING SFC
RIDGE. WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA AND SHORT
WAVE RIDGING STARTING TO DEVELOP...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY SIG WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE MAGNITUDE OF
DRY AIR THAT WILL BE ADVECTED INTO AREA BEHIND FRONT. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...POSITION OF
SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA
MITIGATING THE FIRE WX THREAT. COULD POSSIBLY SEE STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS NEBRASKA COUNTIES...BUT THINK WITH CURRENT FIRE HIGHLIGHTS
AND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER WINDS DO NOT FEEL WATCH
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE WILL
LIKELY BE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD AS NOT ONLY WILL THIS FEATURE
PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL
ALSO BRING MUCH MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE CWA. GIVEN CWA WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE DOUBTS THAT FRONT WILL MAKE A RAPID NORTHERLY SURGE
AND PREFER THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION GIVEN BY NAM AND LATEST
ENSEMBLE MEANS. IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
PERIOD...THINK MOST LIKELY PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS LLJ
INCREASES THROUGH 06Z IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ROCKIES. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING A STRONG SURGE OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO AREA...BUT ISENTROPIC SURFACES SUGGEST
FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN CWA DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL A LOT OF CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER OR
NOT PARCELS WILL SATURATE AND INSTABILITY BE REALIZED...BUT THINK A
SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS IS WARRANTED. IN ADDITION TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOTH NIGHTS WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG FORMATION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START THIS PERIOD.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ADJACENT PLAINS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. APPEARS THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND COUPLED WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
HOW TO HANDLE THAT SYSTEM VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO WILL NOT
CARRY ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
LOT OF CHANGES/THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. BEFORE THE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT
KMCK. BY 14Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KMCK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME
BLOWING DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES...MAINLY AT KGLD...INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SINCE THIS FALLS DURING THE LATER HALF
OF THE PERIOD AND UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING/AREA OF
INITIATION...CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH ONLY A CB MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
STATE LINE AS A DRYLINE SLOWLY ADVANCES TO THE EAST TODAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A SUDDEN SHIFT IN THE WINDS AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING
HUMIDITIES DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IF WINDS DO OCCUR...WILL
LIKELY BE A MUCH SMALLER MAGNITUDE OF EVENT THAN TODAY AND CHOSE
TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO AVOID CONFUSION ABOUT TODAYS
WARNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ252>254.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ090>092.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
100 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
JUST COMPLETED ANOTHER UPDATE. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND
EXPECTED MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN. ALSO DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL SHIFT
UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT PER THE RUC WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT WIND AND DEWPOINT FIELD...ALTHOUGH NOT AS GOOD ON THE
DEWPOINTS. SO USED IT FOR THE BASIS OF THE UPDATE.
AS A RESULT OF A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG ONCE AGAIN TO AREAS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE THICK
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO BECOME
DENSE BUT THIS WILL NEED CONTINUED MONITORING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
JUST COMPLETED A MINOR UPDATE. A GREAT DEAL OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. MOISTURE PROGS WOULD INDICATE THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
STAY AS THICK AS IT IS NOW OR GET THICKER. SO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
DATA...EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG AREA TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EVEN
THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE GREATER THAN LAST NIGHT...
THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE/VEERING OF THE WIND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND CHANCES THAT IT
WILL BE DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH TRENDS ON THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. PRIMARY QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER FOG WILL
REFORM ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING ANYTHING BUT A
CONSENSUS WITH RUC MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT EVENING
SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SITUATION CLOSELY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY WITH A
MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION ON
THAT POTENTIAL. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MONDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
BUT DOES NOT REALLY MIX EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER UNTIL LATE MONDAY
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD.
IN ADDITION TO FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS...ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STRONGEST DYNAMIC REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE OBSERVED
FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF AN UPDRAFT CAN DEVELOP AND BE SUSTAINED. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN
ANTICIPATED 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AS PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START THIS PERIOD.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ADJACENT PLAINS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. APPEARS THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND COUPLED WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
HOW TO HANDLE THAT SYSTEM VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO WILL NOT
CARRY ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
LOT OF CHANGES/THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. BEFORE THE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT
KMCK. BY 14Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KMCK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME
BLOWING DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES...MAINLY AT KGLD...INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SINCE THIS FALLS DURING THE LATER HALF
OF THE PERIOD AND UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING/AREA OF
INITIATION...CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH ONLY A CB MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RECORDS ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION ON MONDAY. ALSO STILL WELL ON TRACK FOR THE WARMEST
MARCH ON RECORD AT GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK. HERE ARE
THE LATEST FIGURES THROUGH MARCH 24.
GOODLAND - 48.8 DEGREES SET IN 1907 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 48.6
BURLINGTON - 47.7 DEGREES SET IN 1986 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 47.1
MCCOOK - 48.3 DEGREES SET IN 2007 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 49.9
HILL CITY - 54.3 DEGREES SET IN 1910 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 51.1
WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT
GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK WILL SEE THE WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD. IT REMAINS TO BE SEE IF HILL CITY WILL BREAK THE RECORD AS
WELL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ252>254.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...PMM/FOLTZ
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1151 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
JUST COMPLETED ANOTHER UPDATE. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND
EXPECTED MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN. ALSO DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL SHIFT
UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT PER THE RUC WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT WIND AND DEWPOINT FIELD...ALTHOUGH NOT AS GOOD ON THE
DEWPOINTS. SO USED IT FOR THE BASIS OF THE UPDATE.
AS A RESULT OF A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG ONCE AGAIN TO AREAS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE THICK
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO BECOME
DENSE BUT THIS WILL NEED CONTINUED MONITORING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
JUST COMPLETED A MINOR UPDATE. A GREAT DEAL OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. MOISTURE PROGS WOULD INDICATE THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
STAY AS THICK AS IT IS NOW OR GET THICKER. SO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
DATA...EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG AREA TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EVEN
THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE GREATER THAN LAST NIGHT...
THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE/VEERING OF THE WIND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND CHANCES THAT IT
WILL BE DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH TRENDS ON THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. PRIMARY QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER FOG WILL
REFORM ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING ANYTHING BUT A
CONSENSUS WITH RUC MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT EVENING
SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SITUATION CLOSELY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY WITH A
MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION ON
THAT POTENTIAL. WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MONDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
BUT DOES NOT REALLY MIX EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER UNTIL LATE MONDAY
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD.
IN ADDITION TO FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS...ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STRONGEST DYNAMIC REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE OBSERVED
FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF AN UPDRAFT CAN DEVELOP AND BE SUSTAINED. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN
ANTICIPATED 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AS PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
DRY CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUATION OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS
A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
CONTINUED FOCUS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S CONTINUING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/GEFS MEAN AND EC
DEPICTING STARKLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP
A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE THE
EC SUPPORTS A RIDGE OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA AND HOLDS THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
LOT OF CHANGES/THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. BEFORE THE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT
KMCK. BY 14Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KMCK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME
BLOWING DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES...MAINLY AT KGLD...INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SINCE THIS FALLS DURING THE LATER HALF
OF THE PERIOD AND UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING/AREA OF
INITIATION...CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH ONLY A CB MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE THREE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY. LEFT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
INTACT FOR THE FIRST TIER OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE WILL MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON. OPTED TO CANCEL THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST AS
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW THAT CRITERIA WOULD BE MET IN THESE
LOCATIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RECORDS ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION ON MONDAY. ALSO STILL WELL ON TRACK FOR THE WARMEST
MARCH ON RECORD AT GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK. HERE ARE
THE LATEST FIGURES THROUGH MARCH 24.
GOODLAND - 48.8 DEGREES SET IN 1907 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 48.6
BURLINGTON - 47.7 DEGREES SET IN 1986 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 47.1
MCCOOK - 48.3 DEGREES SET IN 2007 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 49.9
HILL CITY - 54.3 DEGREES SET IN 1910 - CURRENT AVERAGE TEMP 51.1
WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT
GOODLAND...BURLINGTON...AND MCCOOK WILL SEE THE WARMEST MARCH ON
RECORD. IT REMAINS TO BE SEE IF HILL CITY WILL BREAK THE RECORD AS
WELL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ252>254.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...PMM/FOLTZ
LONG TERM....FOLTZ
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
359 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY ADVECT FROM NNW TO SSE ACROSS THE
CWA AT THIS TIME WITH MORE OF A SOLID BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THAT AT THIS POINT STILL SEEMS TO BE ADVECTION OUT AND THEN SOME MORE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KY THAT GENERALLY ALSO APPEAR TO BE
ADVECTING ACROSS RATHER THAN DEVELOPING FURTHER. A RATHER SUBTLE VORT/
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SLOW DOWN THE
ADVECTION OF THE MORE SOLID BAND IN THE SOUTH OUT AND COULD LEAD TO
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CURRENTLY MORE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
WORKING IN FROM THE NNW. THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO GENERALLY REFLECT
THIS THINKING FOR SKY COVER AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT OBS TRENDS
TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
CLOUD DECK AROUND 4K AGL FEET CURRENTLY ADVECTING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
DECK WILL CLEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE EXPECT UPSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
RUC GUIDANCE. HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS PER LATEST
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
730 PM EDT...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION FROM THE NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE
IS HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS THERE WILL BE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
LOW CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA...AND LATEST NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE
SHOW CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 850 MB TO BE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEING THE RESULT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 23Z. THIS IS CURRENTLY WELL DEPICTED IN
NDFD. ONLY SOME MINOR NDFD UPDATES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT
GIVING WAY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE TIP OF FAR EAST
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A TSTORM THIS FAR WEST SO REMOVED THAT MENTION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT KEEPING A
LIGHT BREEZE BLOWING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE DRIZZLE. ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSOLVE BY
MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ACCOMPANIED BY A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 20S OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THERE IS A CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THIS
DRY AIR AND DROP LOW ENOUGH TO THREATEN A FROST OR FREEZE FOR SOME
AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND POINT TO THERE BEING JUST ENOUGH
WIND TO KEEP ANY FROST FORMATION ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE
DEEPEST VALLEYS BASICALLY NORTH AND EAST OF JKL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON TUESDAY BUT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY...VARYING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM
MOS AT ANY GIVEN POINT. TEND TO AGREE MORE WITH THE GFS NUMBERS WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN
IN STORE. A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO KENTUCKY. A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT NEARLY SHEARING
IT OUT. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE AS WELL. WITH THE SLOWED APPROACH OF THE FRONT AND THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN PLACE...FEEL THAT THE NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE BULK OF THE PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARDS LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AS MOST OF THE FORCING ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
DURING MAX HEATING. SO WILL PUT THUNDERSTORMS IN WITH THE PRECIP. IT
IS STILL UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS AS ALOT OF THE ENERGY SEEMS TO GET LOST OR STAYS NORTH AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH. DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...A MODEL
COMPROMISE HAS PRECIP LASTING A BIT LONGER AS THE FRONT DOESNT EXIT
TILL LATE THURSDAY. THIS IS A BIT CONCERNING AS TENDENCY LIES WITH
PRECIP HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT WILL
LEAVE THIS DECISION WITH SHIFTS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS HOWEVER SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER STRONG WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS OCCURRING WHILE ANOTHER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL INJECT A
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS.
ALSO...AT THIS POINT THE GFS AND EURO DO DIVERGE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS WITH THE EURO BEING FASTER THAN THE GFS BRINGING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE GFS WAITS TILL FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE TWO IN THE CR INITIALIZATION HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE FRIDAY THEN PROGRESSING THROUGH SO WILL KEEP
THIS IN THERE.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX
WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THOUGH...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROLONGED
RAINFALLS. OVERALL...THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE
STILL A BIT MURKY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND THE FLIP
FLOPPING OF THE MODELS SO WILL EXUDE A LOW CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY DAY
6 AND 7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE AND THE FIRST 6 TO 12
HOURS OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS AS A RATHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME AND MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FORM THE NORTH. AT THIS POINT ALL
OF THE CLOUDS SEEM TO GENERALLY BE ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING BY DURING THE NEXT 6 HRS OR SO MAY SLOW DOWN
ADVECTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLE LEAD TO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE BANDS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE
MOVE ACROSS THE JKL CWA. AT THIS POINT...NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SEEM TO
INDICATE PREVAILING CLOUD HEIGHTS OF THE LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY IN THE VFR
RANGE WITH SOME MVFR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A DROP TO MVFR CLOUD OCCUR AT EITHER OF THE THREE
TAF SITES...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS WAS TOO LOW FOR ANY TEMPOS AT THIS POINT. AT
THIS POINT VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HRS OF THE PERIOD...
THUS VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-080-086>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM....SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
157 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY ADVECT FROM NNW TO SSE ACROSS THE
CWA AT THIS TIME WITH MORE OF A SOLID BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THAT AT THIS POINT STILL SEEMS TO BE ADVECTION OUT AND THEN SOME MORE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KY THAT GENERALLY ALSO APPEAR TO BE
ADVECTING ACROSS RATHER THAN DEVELOPING FURTHER. A RATHER SUBTLE VORT/
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SLOW DOWN THE
ADVECTION OF THE MORE SOLID BAND IN THE SOUTH OUT AND COULD LEAD TO
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CURRENTLY MORE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
WORKING IN FROM THE NNW. THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO GENERALLY REFLECT
THIS THINKING FOR SKY COVER AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT OBS TRENDS
TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
CLOUD DECK AROUND 4K AGL FEET CURRENTLY ADVECTING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
DECK WILL CLEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE EXPECT UPSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
RUC GUIDANCE. HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS PER LATEST
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
THE LAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
730 PM EDT...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION FROM THE NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE
IS HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS THERE WILL BE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
LOW CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA...AND LATEST NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE
SHOW CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY BELOW 850 MB TO BE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEING THE RESULT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 23Z. THIS IS CURRENTLY WELL DEPICTED IN
NDFD. ONLY SOME MINOR NDFD UPDATES WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT
GIVING WAY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE TIP OF FAR EAST
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A TSTORM THIS FAR WEST SO REMOVED THAT MENTION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT KEEPING A
LIGHT BREEZE BLOWING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE DRIZZLE. ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSOLVE BY
MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ACCOMPANIED BY A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 20S OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THERE IS A CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THIS
DRY AIR AND DROP LOW ENOUGH TO THREATEN A FROST OR FREEZE FOR SOME
AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND POINT TO THERE BEING JUST ENOUGH
WIND TO KEEP ANY FROST FORMATION ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE
DEEPEST VALLEYS BASICALLY NORTH AND EAST OF JKL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON TUESDAY BUT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY...VARYING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM
MOS AT ANY GIVEN POINT. TEND TO AGREE MORE WITH THE GFS NUMBERS WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY GOOD CONTINUITY THRU MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE RATHER SHARPLY ON FRIDAY WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO THE LESS EXTREME SOLUTION OF THE GFS
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE DETAILS TOWARDS THE
TAIL END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS RATHER LOW.
VORTEX CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CA/OR COAST IS EXPECTED
TO SEND A DECENT SHORT WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT TO START
THE PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTION LOOKS TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO ERN KY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL ADVERTISED IN FCST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE
AREA TO WARRANT CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN...WOULD PREFER TO GO MOSTLY QUIET
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL SETTLE FOR A GENTLE NUDGE IN THAT
DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF BENIGN
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY...AT WHICH POINT THE MODELS BEGIN PARTING
WAYS WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. REGARDLESS OF
THEIR RESPECTIVE DIFFERENCES...ANY OF THE RECENT OFFINGS FROM THE
GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS CAN BE OBTAINED.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO CONTINUE
FOLLOWING THE ABOVE NORMAL TREND...WITH TEMPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD
STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMO BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ONE NOTE OF CONCERN IS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHERE AGAIN...MODELS POINT TOWARDS RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S THROUGHOUT OUR NERN VALLEYS. HAVE STRAYED TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE
OF THE MOS LOWS FOR NOW AND...GIVEN THE EVOLVING UNCERTAINTY JUST
BEYOND THIS WINDOW...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE
NUMBERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE AND THE FIRST 6 TO 12
HOURS OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS AS A RATHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME AND MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FORM THE NORTH. AT THIS POINT ALL
OF THE CLOUDS SEEM TO GENERALLY BE ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING BY DURING THE NEXT 6 HRS OR SO MAY SLOW DOWN
ADVECTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLE LEAD TO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE BANDS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE
MOVE ACROSS THE JKL CWA. AT THIS POINT...NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS SEEM TO
INDICATE PREVAILING CLOUD HEIGHTS OF THE LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY IN THE VFR
RANGE WITH SOME MVFR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A DROP TO MVFR CLOUD OCCUR AT EITHER OF THE THREE
TAF SITES...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS WAS TOO LOW FOR ANY TEMPOS AT THIS POINT. AT
THIS POINT VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HRS OF THE PERIOD...
THUS VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
401 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COLD, DRY, NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A HARD FREEZE WILL BE THE
RESULT TONIGHT. A SOUTHEAST BOUND CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING MILD
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY, SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AND AREA OF STRATOCU
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF STRONG CAA THIS MORNING. CURRENT SAT PICS ARE
SHOWING THIS AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLOUDS TO BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH MID-
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS MOVES IN. BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, EXPECT
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
COLD NORTHWEST WINDS EMANATING FROM EASTBOUND CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO -7C. HENCE CONCUR WITH
NAM AND GFS MOS THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN
CURRENT READINGS.
NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS CAN GUST TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIOD OF COLDEST TEMPS WITH MODELS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 24F CONSTITUTE A HARD FREEZE WHICH GFS
AND NAM MOS HAVE BEEN SHOWING.
HENCE HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING.
BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A RARE CONGLOMERATION OF EVENTS, FELT IT
NECESSARY TO ISSUE THE WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES.
AS WINDS ABATE TUESDAY, SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING CLOUDINESS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW MVFR STRATUS LINGERING
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WHILE A NEW BATCH HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
KPIT-KCLE. HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT SHOW ADDITIONAL MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY 09Z-14Z, AS THE
SURFACE LAYER COOLS AND SATURATES DUE TO ADVECTIVE AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.
NAM MODEL PROFILES AND GFS LAMP THEN SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING
TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES BY 16Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT, AND
EXPECT NO MORE THAN CIRRUS DAYTIME TUESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASING TODAY TO 13 KTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10
KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
224 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COLD DRY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY, THAT WILL RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE
TONIGHT. A SOUTHEASTBOUND CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
MILD SHOWERY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PER RECENT SATELLITE DATA AND HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TODAY.
COLD NORTHWEST WINDS EMANATING FROM EASTBOUND CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO 7C. HENCE CONCUR WITH
NAM AND GFS MOS THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN
CURRENT READINGS.
NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS CAN GUST TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIOD OF COLDEST TEMPS WITH MODELS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 24F CONSTITUTE A HARD FREEZE WHICH GFS
AND NAM MOS HAVE BEEN SHOWING.
HENCE HAVE MAINTAINED A FREEZE WATCH. WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A
FREEZE WARNING WITH 4 AM ISSUANCE.
AS WINDS ABATE TUESDAY, SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING CLOUDINESS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW MVFR STRATUS LINGERING
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WHILE A NEW BATCH HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
KPIT-KCLE. HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT SHOW ADDITIONAL MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY 09Z-14Z, AS THE
SURFACE LAYER COOLS AND SATURATES DUE TO ADVECTIVE AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.
NAM MODEL PROFILES AND GFS LAMP THEN SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING
TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES BY 16Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT, AND
EXPECT NO MORE THAN CIRRUS DAYTIME TUESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASING TODAY TO 13 KTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10
KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-022.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1218 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY...AS THE H875 INVERSION
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO ERRODE. AWAY FROM THE COOLING OFF LK
SUPERIOR...THE CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT...BUT STILL HAVE A DECENT
SWATH OF CLOUDS OVER SRN ONTARIO NEAR THUNDER BAY.
MEANWHILE...1033MB SFC HIGH JUST NE OF LK WINNIPEG AND AN
ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE HAS BEEN WORKING INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR. FARTHER
SW...DEVELOPING LOW OVER WYOMING AS LED TO SOME MID LVL WAA AND
CLOUDS OVER SD AND SRN MN. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY S OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
BRINGS DRIER MID LVL AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LKS.
ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE CLOUDS NEAR/OVER LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE
WAY THEY HAVE HUNG IN TODAY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ERN LK...FEELING
IS THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THEM HANGING AROUND FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LK INSTABILITY...AS H950-925
TEMPS ARE AROUND -9C AND LK TEMPS AROUND 3-4C. QUESTION WILL BE IF
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME WITH THIS MOISTURE AND MOST HAVE THE MOISTURE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING WITH THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH THE SFC
RIDGE. BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF THE CLOUDS OVER SRN ONTARIO AND
CNTRL/ERN LK SUPERIOR CREATES CONCERN ON IT COMPLETELY DIMINISHING.
HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUDS TO PARTLY CLOUDY NEAR LK SUPERIOR FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS TO SUBSIDENCE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND
DECREASING MOISTURE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
DIMINISH THEM. THAT BEING SAID...COULD EASILY SEE THE MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND REMAINING WITH THE LK
INSTABILITY. DID TRY TO SHOW SOME MOVEMENT TO THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AS H925 WINDS VEER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD FOCUS THE CLOUDS
OVER THE N THEN NE FAVORED LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...13-16Z RUC RUNS
TRY TO DEVELOP LK ENHANCED PCPN OVER CNTRL/ERN LK SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING AND THEN DROP IT INTO UPPER MI. THE ONLY OTHER HIRES MODEL
TO MENTION IT WAS THE REGIONAL GEM. WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
TODAY DEVELOPMENT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISING...BUT WITH CONCERNS ON AMNT
OF MOISTURE PRESENT DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT.
LOWS TONIGHT HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL DUE TO SEVERAL INFLUENCES.
NEAR LK SUPERIOR...THE CLOUDS/WIND WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO CREATES UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE STUCK WITH A
MIDDLE GROUND IN THE UPPER 20S. FARTHER INLAND...TEMPS COULD REALLY
TANK ONCE THE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IF SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. PWATS AROUND 0.25IN OR ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
LIGHT WINDS CREATES A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND EXPECT
TEMPS TO FALL NEAR 20. IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN AWAY...COULD SEE VALUES
EVEN COLDER INTO THE TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COLD SPOTS.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SW OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE
SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE
DAY...AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN MONTANA/WYOMING. OTHER THAN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LK CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING UNDER H700 WAA MON AFTN OVER
MN AND NW WI...AND WILL APPROACH THE FAR WRN CWA LATE IN THE AFTN.
COOL NRLY FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MIXING DOWN NEAR THE LK
SHORE AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S. FARTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE LK
INFLUENCE...MIXING TOWARDS H850 TEMPS OF -4C WEST AND -9C EAST WILL
PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BORDER.
AS FOR DEWPOINTS...MODEL MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAND CWA. THIS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO HAVE ADJUSTED GOING
VALUES DOWN A TOUCH AWAY FROM THE MOISTENING AFFECTS OF LK
SUPERIOR. THIS LEADS TO RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH
A FEW MID-LOWER 20S OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KTS OR
LESS AND ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...EXPECT FIRE WX CONCERNS
TO BE LIMITED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
AND WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. STRONG WAA AND 295K- 305K
ISENTROPIC LIFT (NOSE OF 850-800MB WINDS 50-55KT) WILL SUPPORT A BAND
OF PCPN THROUGH THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
VERY STRONG WAA IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER PUSHING WARM NOSE TEMPS TO
AROUND 5C SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY LIQUID PCPN. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND WAA OVER THE FAR WEST EXPECT THAT SFC TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ENOUGH
BY THE ONSET OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN AS RAIN. HOWEVER...OVER INTERIOR
WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
MAY LINGER AS THE PCPN MOVES IN. EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET OF
PCPN WILL ALSO DELAY LOW LEVEL WARMING. WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AFTER THE LONG WARM SPELL...THERE IS ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE IF ANY WOULD ACCUMULATE. SO...MENTIONED
BOTH RA/FZRA FOR MOST OF THE THE CWA AND HIGHLIGHTED THE HAZARD IN A
PORTION OF THE SPS. INSTABILITY FOR TSRA LOOKS MARGINAL...BUT SOME
ELEVATED CAPE INTO EDING INTO THE CWA SUPPORTS AT LEAST CONTINUED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS THE DRY SLOT SPREADS ACROSS THE ARA LATE TUE
INTO TUE EVENING...PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR
ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE MID LEVEL
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH UPPER MI SOME ADDITIONAL WRAP-AROUND LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WED MORNNG. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
WED AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE REGION.
SO...ONLY LOW END POPS FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PCPN.
THU-SUN...HIGH PRES SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA THU WITH COOL DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SHRTWV AND PCPN CHANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY EVEN THOUGH CONFIDECNE IN DETAILS IS LOW. A BLOCKING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH WITH A SFC HUDSON BAY HIGH EXTENDEDING INTO THE AREA WILL
LIMIT PCPN CHANCES TO LOWER END POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS STRATOCU OFF THE LAKE. WITH LOW-LEVEL
WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY...KSAW WILL BE FAVORED
FOR BKN MVFR CIGS ABOVE 2000FT...ESPECIALLY WITH STRATOCU E AND NE
OF LAKE SUPERIOR PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT
AT TIMES. EXPECT CLOUDS AT KSAW TO CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. AT
KCMX/KIWD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN SCT STRATOCU AT KCMX OVERNIGHT WITH UNFAVORABLE WIND DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW...AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD DOMINATE AT KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN THE VEERING WINDS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS E ON MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NRN PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST AND ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS ON TUESDAY OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS IS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS PROGGED TO TAKE A
TRACK NEWD TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
TUE. AHEAD OF THE STRONG SYSTEM LOW LEVEL WAA IS CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS WITH THE
MOISTURE ATTM...AND THUS A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDC
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC THIS MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AROUND 850
MB AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CIN HOLDING BACK THE CONVECTION.
WE FEEL THIS TREND WILL CONT TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS B/W 12-15Z OVER THE CNTRL AND SERN CWA FOR ANYTHING
ISO THAT MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE FA. WINDS AT 925 (850) MB INCREASE TO 40 (55) KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOME OF
THIS SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE SURFACE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MIXING THOUGH...AND WE WOULD FEEL BETTER WITH A DUE SOUTH OR
SW WIND...SO A WIND ADVRY IS NO SLAM DUNK...BUT WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING TO 925 MB WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SITES MEET
CRITERIA THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG HOURS. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY.
THE DRY LINE STILL LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE WRN HI PLAINS TODAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. SOME POSITIVE CAPE
IS INDICATED NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT CIN IS SIGNIFICANT AND WITH
MUCH OF THE FORCING GOING INTO SODAK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NEB AREA LOOKS PRETTY LOW...AND ESPECIALLY ANYTHING THAT WOULD
WORK INTO OUR FA. THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SCHC FOR THIS EVNG IN
THE NW. A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACTUALLY COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ERN FA AS BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE
ADVANCING PAC CDFNT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONT SOME
CHC POPS IN THE E AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY TUES MRNG WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
EXPECTED FOR TUE/WED.
THE SURFACE FNT STILL LOOKS TO HANG UP OVER MO/KS ON TUE/WED AND
THIS WILL START TO RETREAT NWD WED NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THU
(ALTHOUGH I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO
NEB). AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHRTWV PROGGED FOR
THU NIGHT SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY WORK AROUND THE FNT AND INTO
CNTRL NEB BY LATE THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THU...THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE PAST FRI.
BOUSTEAD
&&
FIRE WEATHER...
IN THE POST FRONT AIRMASS ON TUES THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OR HIGHER WILL
LEAD TO DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY IN THE
CNTRL AND WRN CWA. DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES
WITH THE MIXING ON TUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 70S. THIS WILL CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF RH BELOW 20
PERCENT DURING THE AFTN ON TUES. WITH STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SD...SFC WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED ABOVE 15 KT WITH
GUSTS WELL OVER 25 KT. THIS ALL SHOULD COMBINED FOR A DANGEROUS
FIRE WX DAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP NICELY AROUND
THE ARE AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUES FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA.
MAYES
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
WARM ADVECTION REST OF TONIGHT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL VFR
CIGS...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 5K AGL FT...TO TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD NOT OCCUR. THERE IS AN SLIGHT
CHANCE A SHOWER/TSTM COULD DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE FM CNTRL
INTO NCNTRL NEBRASKA WHICH COULD DRIFT ACROSS ERN NEBR LATE
TONIGHT/MON MORNING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE/CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN TAF FORECAST. SSE SURFACE WINDS WILL DRAMATICALLY
INCREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY AT LEAST IN
20-25KT RANGE. A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
LATE MONDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH AN
ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM APPROACHING NERN NEBRASKA TOWARD 27/06Z.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>067-078-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ015-033-043-044-050-051-065-078.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1155 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAF. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS IS WEST OF KGRI WHERE PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE AN INCREASING LLVL JET OVERNIGHT MAY
LEAD TO SOME HIT OR MISS CONVECTION WITH KGRI ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE POTENTIAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY WITH
WIND SPEEDS IN THE AFTN AVERAGING 25 TO 30KTS WITH GUSTS OVER
40KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
UPDATE...MOISTURE AXIS IS ALIGNING ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA ATTM
AND HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG
ALONG MOISTURE AXIS AND HAVE ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. ALSO...INCREASING LLVL JET OVER MOISTURE AXIS AND DECENT
AREA OF THETA E ADVECTION ALIGNS ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO IN THIS AREA AND
INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS FOR TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS LIE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS.
UPPER AIR PROFILER AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS...SANDWICHED BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFF THE
SOCAL COAST. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH WAS PUSHING SOUTH THIS MORNING
MADE IT IN TO JUST ABOUT I-80...BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTED
TRANSITIONING FROM THE NORTH TO MORE TO THE EAST. TOOK A LITTLE
BIT...BUT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FINALLY SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...AND WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES...WINDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA EVENTUALLY SWITCHED OVER TO THE S/SE. BETWEEN THIS
MORNINGS CLOUD COVER NOT ERODING UNTIL LATE MORNING AND ANOTHER
BATCH OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFFECTING THE NWRN CORNER OF THE
CWA...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ONLY REACHED INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S...VS THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA.
LOOKING TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
WILL STATE THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...ESP IN THE
NORTHEAST/EASTERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-50KT SWRLY LLJ
TONIGHT...WHICH NOSES INTO...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z
MONDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS A SURGE OF INCREASED
WARM AIR/THETAE ADVECTION...MAINLY AFFECTING THE NERN HALF OF THE
CWA BETWEEN 06-12Z. REALLY DEBATED THROWING SOME SMALL POPS IN...BUT
ANOTHER THING THAT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS THE
PRESENCE OF CAPPING...SHOWING 700MB TEMPS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 5-9
DEG C DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE CAPPING IS A BIT WEAKER ALONG THAT
NE/ERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...AND WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS PRECIP THERE
ISNT MUCH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS WITH THERE BEING ENOUGH FORCING
TO BREAK THROUGH THAT CAP. WITH CONTINUED S/SERN FLOW OVERNIGHT
/WITH SPEEDS HIGHER THAN LAST FEW NIGHTS/...EXPECTING LOW TEMPS TO
BE WARMER...AND FORECAST LOWS SIT IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.
AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW...THE MAIN FOCUS TURNS TO WINDS...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN FOR LATE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHOWS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AS A
DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TROUGH THE ROCKIES...LEAVING THE CWA WITH
SWRLY FLOW. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER...EXPECTING TO SEE
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
INCREASING SRLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MIXING POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO ONLY REACH UPWARDS OF 850MB...THERE ARE ALSO INCREASED WINDS TO
TAP INTO. DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND ADV ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE ERN FRINGE IS MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...BUT WAS
COMFORTABLE INCLUDING IT. EXPECTING TO SEE A BUMP UP IN TEMP...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. AT THIS POINT COULD CREEP CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS /MAINLY IN HASTINGS AND KEARNEY/...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW. RECORDS ARE 86 AT BOTH HASTINGS AND KEARNEY IN 1989...AND 90
IN GRAND ISLAND IN 1907. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE OF
THE CWA...AND DID KEEP THE LOW POPS IN. WHILE WE DO HAVE INCREASING
INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND THE DISTURBANCE IS SHIFTING
CLOSER...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WAS NOT GOING TO INCREASE POPS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. VARIOUS CONCERNS
DURING THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME INCLUDE POSSIBLE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ADDITIONAL...FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. WILL DISCUSS THESE ELEMENTS FIRST...AND CONCLUDE WITH SOME
DISCUSSION ABOUT TEMPERATURES...
STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY MONDAY EVENING...THE MILLION DOLLAR
QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE CWA...AS A COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS FROM THE WY/NEB PANHANDLE AREA AT 00Z...TO
ND BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...CLEARLY
THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. IN
ADDITION...12Z NAM PLAN VIEW CINH FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CAPPING TO NEAR-SURFACE BASED
PARCELS...AS EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS INITIALLY IN THE 6-8C RANGE.
ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS INSISTS ON STORMS AFFECTING AT LEAST THE
WESTERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE CWA...THE LAST TWO NAM RUNS AND ALSO 12Z
ECMWF SKIRT CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...AND
THEN RE-FOCUSING EASTWARD ALONG AN AXIS FROM IA TO EASTERN KS
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE ADVANCING 850MB FRONT AND WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL JET AXIS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT GREAT...NAM/GFS
GENERALLY AGREE ON ELEVATED CAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE DURING
THE NIGHT...AND 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT. CERTAINLY THIS
COULD SUPPORT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL TO
QUARTER SIZE REALLY THE MAIN THREAT...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE WILL KEEP POPS AT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND THE SOUTHEAST 1/3
LATER IN THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY CWA-WIDE...AS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR INVADES...AND THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY AXIS HANGS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF KANSAS. THAT
BEING SAID...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL KS
ZONES IN THE TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT TIME FRAMES IN CASE ANY
CONVECTION BRUSHES INTO THE CWA NEAR MODEST LOW LEVEL JETS FOCUSES
FARTHER SOUTH. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE IMPRESSIVE DRYLINE PASSAGE. WITH
DEWPOINTS DECREASING/MIXING DOWN INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S AT BEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING DOWN INTO THE
15-20 PERCENT RANGE MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS FORECAST INTO RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA...THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND
20 MPH OR HIGHER SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS PREVALENT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. DESPITE THE
RECENT GREEN-UP...THE OFFICIAL VEGETATIVE FUEL STATUS IS STILL
FAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH...AND THUS WE COULD EASILY BE HEADING
TOWARD A RED FLAG WARNING ESPECIALLY FOR MUCH OF NEB ZONES.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS GETS PROGRESSIVELY LOWER WITH
TIME...VARIOUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE
ENTER THE CWA IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...AS AT LEAST TWO FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...AND INTERACT WITH AT LEAST MODEST
INCREASING INSTABILITY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND
INSTABILITY RETURNS. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE OVERALL BEST
RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE
EAST...BUT THESE CHANCES COULD EASILY MIGRATE AROUND OR
CHANGE...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO GET VERY OUT OF PHASE WITH
TIMING OF WAVES. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY LOOKING
MODEST...CERTAINLY NO OBVIOUS SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...LEFT DRY AS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
CONCLUDING WITH A BRIEF DISCUSSION ON TEMPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH LOW-MID
70S ALL DAYS...BUT COULD FORESEE READINGS BY NEXT SUNDAY GETTING
BOOSTED CLOSER TO 80 IF A RIDGE BUILDS AS ADVERTISED. REGARDING
LOW TEMPS...DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...GENERALLY NUDGING MANY
AREAS DOWN 2-5 DEGREES FOR BOTH MON NIGHT AND TUES NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR INVADES AND WINDS LIGHTEN. IN FACT...NOW HAVE MID-UPPER 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING
SAID...STILL NO LEGITIMATE FREEZING TEMPS IN SIGHT THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060>062-072>075-082>085.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
319 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN TODAY AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A BRIEF WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE COLD UPPER LOW IS NOW WELL EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS AND MOVING OUT TO SEA. OUR MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW AND A MUCH DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SOUTH AND THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULDN`T BE ANY CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS.
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING SWIRLING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH CAROLINA.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS REVEALS SINKING PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY ERODE THESE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AFTER 14Z (10 AM) SUNSHINE SHOULD BE BREAKING OUT
EVEN IN THE WILMINGTON AREA...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 75-80
TODAY... WARMEST IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA PEE DEE REGION AND COOLEST
ALONG THE NC EAST-FACING BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO
43-48...COOLEST IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND WARMEST
NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT TUESDAY
WILL BE THE FIRST BELOW CLIMO DAY SINCE MARCH 11 AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP TEMPS BELOW...TO WELL BELOW...SEASONABLE NORMS...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS BEING IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE NE WINDS ADVECT
OFF THE COOL OCEAN. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY TUESDAY...NOTE
THAT FREQUENTLY MOISTURE IS UNDER-MODELED IN WEDGE SCENARIOS SO WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER MORE THAN SUGGESTED BY PROFILES. MIXING WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH TO BELOW 900MB...AND LOW LEVEL 1000-900MB
THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR WILMINGTON...TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC.
HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DECOUPLING IN THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE...AND CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT...AS IT IS...IS WHETHER
SOME SLIGHT LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH DRIFTS
OFFSHORE...OR WHETHER WE CAN STAY PERFECTLY CALM. NEARLY ALL THE
FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM 06Z-12Z
WEDNESDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE. BELIEVE IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR SUCH SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AFTER MANY HOURS OF NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL NOT
DROP MINS AS LOW AS MAV NUMBERS...AND OPT FOR LOW 40S AREA
WIDE...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS POTENTIALLY TOUCHING 39.
BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH HAS DRIFTED OFFSHORE AND WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW COMES BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS WILL
HELP RAISE TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE CLIMO...MID 70S AWAY FROM THE
COAST...AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT WILL KEEPS TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH OUT OF THE MID 50S AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE LONG TERM OCCURS
LATE THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN TO THE WEEKEND.
MODERATELY POTENT S/W TROUGH DIGS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY...SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. STILL NOTING TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT FOR PERSISTENCE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF/CMC OVER THE GFS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE DOES TRY TO
ADVECT INTO OUR AREA JUST AHEAD OF FROPA...SO WILL CARRY SCHC POP
FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY EVE/NIGHT. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION COMES
TRUE...850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 80
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE EXTENDED. IF...HOWEVER...A FASTER FROPA OCCURS...THIS
WILL OBVIOUSLY CUT TEMPS BACK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
WOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF AFTN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI/SAT RETURNING THE
AREA TO NEAR CLIMO TEMPS...POSSIBLY BELOW CLIMO WITH SOME NE FLOW ON
FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY ON EVOLUTION AND
STRENGTH OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM S/W DROPPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
RIDGE. GFS IS FASTER AND WEAKER...CONTINUING ITS TREND THIS
YEAR...SO WILL BLEND ECMWF/GFS BUT WITH ADDITIONAL WEIGHT ON THE
FORMER. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WKND
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...
RADAR AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST IT`S NOT OVER FOR NORTH
CAROLINA JUST YET. SHOWERS ROTATING SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL AFFECT THE ILM
TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z...WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
LBT VICINITY THROUGH 0730Z OR SO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO CEILING HEIGHTS...MVFR SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BUT IFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PARTICULARLY AFTER 08Z. AFTER DAYBREAK WINDS
WILL PICK UP...GUSTING OVER 20 KTS BY MID MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME
NEARLY CLEAR AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE
MORNING FOG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE NC OUTER
BANKS AND WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL
BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS HIGH MOVES SOUTH IT WILL
PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT...REACHING 15-20 KT
BY LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL SEAS COULD REACH 6 FEET IN THE WATERS NEAR FRYING PAN
SHOALS DUE TO THEIR EXPOSED POSITION IN THIS WIND DIRECTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO RAISE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE
SEAS 2-4 FEET TODAY SHOULD BUILD TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT AWAY FROM SHORE
WITH THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NE SURGE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AROUND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AT LEAST CAUTIONARY HEADLINES APPEAR
LIKELY TO BE IN EFFECT TUESDAY MORNING WITH 15-20 KT WINDS CREATING
4-5 FT NE WIND WAVES CONTROLLING THE WAVE SPECTRUM. DURING
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS SO WINDS/WAVES
RAPIDLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM
OVERNIGHT WHILE SEAS FALL TO 1-2 FT. GRADIENT INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. THIS PUTS THE WATERS INTO A PRE FRONTAL REGIME...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS FORCING SEAS BACK UP TO 3-5 FT...AND
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NECESSARY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CAUTIONARY HEADLINES POSSIBLY ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT. SW WIND WAVES OF
3-5 FT EARLY THURSDAY FALL TO 2-3 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF
CONFUSED SEAS IS LIKELY THURSDAY EVE AS THE WAVE SPECTRUM FEATURES
TWO DOMINANT WIND WAVES...ONE SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM THE SW...WHILE A
BUILDING NE WIND WAVE DEVELOPS. N/NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FRIDAY
KEEP SEAS ONLY AROUND 2 FT THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA/DL
MARINE...TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
101 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN TODAY AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A BRIEF WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND MOVEMENT AND IS THE
BASIS FOR OUR EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT ACROSS PENDER COUNTY AND THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER BASIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING AS FAR INLAND AS KINSTON AND GOLDSBORO THAT
WILL ROTATE SOUTH AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SHOULD HELP THE SOUTHERN EDGE
DETERIORATE AFTER 2-3 AM...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN OVER WITH BY 4-5
AM. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 11 PM
SUNDAY FOLLOWS...
PER LATEST ANALYSIS...5H CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL IS OFF
THE SE NC COAST AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED
OVERNIGHT AS THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO INTERACT AND SLOWLY ABSORB THIS
UPPER LOW INTO THE MAIN WESTERLY BELT. MODELS INDICATE THE
CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE MONDAY AND THEN GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE MAIN WESTERLIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. BY
12Z...MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LOW NOW NEARLY AN OPEN WAVE...AND
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE FROM CAPE HATTERAS. OVERALL...LOOK FOR
IMPROVING WX AND SLOWLY IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS FROM SW TO
NE...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. WILL INDICATE PARTIAL
CLEARING FOR BASIC SKY CONDITIONS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. VARIOUS
MODEL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE CONTINUED DECENT CHANCE FOR PCPN WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
WEAKENING LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL PULLING AWAY...AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BECOMING MORE DOMINANT AS TIME GOES BY...HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO A DRIER FORECAST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. HAVE
TWEAKED MIN TEMPS LOWER GIVEN CAA AND MOST TEMPS ACROSS THE ILM CWA
HAVING REACHED WITHIN A CAT OF FORECAST MINS ALREADY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1:20 PM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL AMPLITUDE WILL RELAX THROUGH THE
PERIOD ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. FOCUS SHIFTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND INSTABILITY TO WHAT IS
BECOMING AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EARLY ON...A BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES AROUND 0600 UTC TUESDAY. THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHEAST TO ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NO POPS OR EVEN LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH 38 DEGREES IN
LUMBERTON AND 44 WITH THE MAV FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE
GFS HAS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST
THAT MAY KEEP IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK LOWS A BIT BUT OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN
HEAVILY TOWARD THE MAV/GFS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1:20 PM SUNDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE CAROLINAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A BELT OF WESTERLIES
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE COAST. TEMPS BOUNCE BACK TO NORMAL
AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL. MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS ON THURSDAY
IN RESPONSE TO CONGEALING LOWS OFF CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A LARGELY
MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT MANAGES TO PUSH THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY BUT
NOT BEFORE A WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 80. FASTER TIMING OF THE
FRONT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER WHICH WOULD OBVIOUSLY LIMIT THE WARMTH AND
COULD FAVOR A FEW TSTMS IF FROPA BETTER COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING.
GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH THE EXTENT OF BUILDING PRESSURES AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH RAMIFICATIONS RANGING FROM A
RETURN TO CLIMO TEMPS TO DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO. EITHER WAY THIS
HIGH APPEARS FATED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
FAVORING A RETURN OF AT LEAST CLIMO TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED
CONVECTION BORNE OF MESOSCALE PROCESSES CERTAINLY HARD TO RULE OUT
BUT NO WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC FORCING IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...
RADAR AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST IT`S NOT OVER FOR NORTH
CAROLINA JUST YET. SHOWERS ROTATING SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL AFFECT THE ILM
TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z...WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
LBT VICINITY THROUGH 0730Z OR SO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO CEILING HEIGHTS...MVFR SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BUT IFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PARTICULARLY AFTER 08Z. AFTER DAYBREAK WINDS
WILL PICK UP...GUSTING OVER 20 KTS BY MID MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME
NEARLY CLEAR AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE
MORNING FOG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS AND MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA. ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR
TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT AS RADAR INDICATES A LARGE BATCH OF RAIN ABOUT
TO PUSH OFFSHORE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
WILL BEGIN TO WRAP UP AFTER 4 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 11 PM
SUNDAY FOLLOWS...
RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE ILM NC WATERS ONLY.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO SLIDE OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATE
THIS EVENING...AND FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY HRS.
THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN INDICATE WINDS WILL VEER FROM W TO NW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15
KT...EXCEPT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4
FT THRUOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5 FOOTERS MAINLY RESERVED FOR THE
OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. A 2 TO 4 FT 7 TO 8 SECOND
PERIOD SOUTHERLY BORDERLINE SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT
SEAS. A 1 TO 3 FOOT WIND CHOP...WILL BLEND INTO THE SIG SEAS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1:20 PM SUNDAY...SOME STRONG WINDS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE. EXPECT A
NORTHERLY FLOW AT 20-25 KNOTS. GRADIENT DECREASES SLOWLY DURING THE
DAY ONLY TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AROUND 0600 UTC TUESDAY AS A
SECONDARY FRONT/SURGE MOVES ACROSS. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO A RANGE OF 20-25 KNOTS. GRADIENT DIMINISHES
DRAMATICALLY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE;RE MOVES FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO BASICALLY OVERHEAD. WINDS
STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN EARLY
TUESDAY. SEAS MAY ECLIPSE SIX FEET BRIEFLY TUESDAY BUT WILL NOT
ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE AND TIME
CONSIDERATIONS. SEAS FOLLOW THE WINDS TUESDAY DECREASING
DRAMATICALLY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1:20 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WEDNESDAY THAT MAY VEER WITH THE
APPROACH/DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS. THIS MAY
ALSO LEAD TO JUST ENOUGH OF AN UPTICK OF CONDITIONS THAT CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. THESE FACTORS REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT WHOSE TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN APPROACHES
FROM THE NNW. THE APPROACH OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
VEERING THROUGH THURSDAY DEPENDING ON ITS SPEED AND TIME OF ARRIVAL.
ASSUMING A THURSDAY EVENING FROPA A TURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO
WILL BE QUESTIONABLE...IN STRENGTH. THIS WILL END UP DICTATING
WHETHER FRIDAY SEES A SLIGHT DETERIORATION IN WIND AND SEAS OR AN
ACTUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THURSDAY SHOULD THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS PAN
OUT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK/TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...HDL/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
457 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY.
ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED...WITH CONCERNS ON PCPN AND TYPE AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
OUT OF CANADA NOSING SOUTH INTO WI. FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FLOAT IN OFF LAKES. TO SOUTHWEST MID CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA...WITH FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF FGEN FORCING. FREEZE WARNING WILL
REMAIN AS IS.
FORECAST ATTENTION ON SIG SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
WESTERN TROF INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUE MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS TO MOVE EAST TODAY WITH
COLD FRONT RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AREA OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LI`S NEAR 0 SHIFTS EAST INTO REGION
TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES TO 40KTS...FOCUSED OVER NORTH THUS HIGHER POPS OVER
NORTHERN CWA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LAYER BELOW 800MB HAS TO BE
OVERCOME THIS EVENING...TRENDED POPS LOWER EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PCPN
TYPE ALSO IN QUESTION. DEPTH OF THE BELOW FREEZING LAYER ON
SOUNDINGS DEEP ENOUGH TO REFREEZE...WHILE CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS
SLEET. THOUGH CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT FZRA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS...THEN WARM TOWARD MORNING...
LIMITING ZR. WILL NOT PUT ZR IN GRIDS ATTM AND PASS CONCERNS
REGARDING IT ON TO NEXT SHIFT.
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO CWA LATE IN DAY TUE. MODELS SUGGEST
POSSIBLE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF FRONT. INSTABILITY
LIMITED WITH DEW POINTS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
INSTABILITY MAINLY FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BE A STABILIZING FACTOR AND LIMIT
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. HAVE BACKED POPS BACK DOWN INTO
SCATTERED RANGE FOR TUE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO
NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BEEN CONTEMPLATING IF A
SMALL CHANCE WOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS THE EAST. DO THINK IF ANY
ACTIVITY DOES FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL RACE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. SOME CONCERNS
TONIGHT THAT THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING THE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.
VERY STRONG WINDS AT 925MB...COMBINED WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND 850MB COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HELP MIX SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HAVE GONE WITH BLUSTERY
WORDING FOR NOW IN THE ZONES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW GUSTS
TO OVER 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW OVER FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TONIGHT...BOTH THE GFS/WRF
INDICATING 500MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHILE THE
BOTH MODELS DO SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK TROUGH/COLD
FRONT. DID EXPAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND NOW
INCLUDES MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY...A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE BAY WITH AREAS OF
FROST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RECENT
RECORD WARMTH...THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED VERY EARLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. HAVE ADDED FROST TO THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND STILL LOOKS MUDDLED
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THEREFORE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...THE MAIN AREA OF MVFR CIGS THAT WAS OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA
EARLIER IN THE EVENING DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED INTO NE WI...BUT PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE/BAY AND MOVE INTO
NE/EC WI. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES...BUT KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FOR BKN015-020 AT ATW/GRB THROUGH
12Z/MON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL WI LATE
THIS EVENING...BUT SHOWERS OVER SE MN SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONDAY. SCT SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
EVG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. IN ADDITION...SOME LLWS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT RHI/AUW/CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING.
KIECKBUSCH
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE ALLOWED TO RUN THROUGH 15Z. WINDS
HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA...THOUGH WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP
OFF. INCREASING SOUTHEAST...SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LLVL
FLOW INCREASES TO 40KTS AT 925MB. UNDER WAA REGIME HAVE CONCERNS
THAT A STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS
DOWN...WITH GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SAME. WILL STAY WITH STRONG
SMALL CRAFT WORDING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021.
&&
$$
TE/ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1149 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW STRATO-CU DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY EARLIER
TODAY AS MIXING INTO DRIER AIR OVERWHELMED THE SHALLOW COOL AND
MOIST AIRMASS. STILL SOME LINGERING CU OVER EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THOUGH TRENDS SUPPORT IT DISSIPATING AS WELL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. UPSTREAM IS PRETTY QUIET...WITH ONLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS AND HEADLINES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS INCOMING AIRMASS
FROM CANADA IS QUITE DRY AND WILL DROP PWATS TO UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. THOUGH AIRMASS IS VERY DRY...NOT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE SCT-BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER NE WISCONSIN WHERE NE WINDS
FUNNELED DOWN THE BAY...AND ALSO OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE BL
RATHER BREEZY. NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE 1000-850MB WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS...WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR DECOUPLING. AM GOING
TO LEAN TOWARDS DECOUPLING OCCURRING...DUE TO SANDY SOIL EFFECTS AND
CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...MID TWENTY
LOWS SEEM PERFECTLY REASONABLE UP NORTH...AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO
ADJUST HEADLINES. DID RAISE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND WIND. LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S HERE.
MONDAY...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STALL OVER SW WISCONSIN TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL RETURN NE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT
STARTS RETURNING NORTH. NE WISCONSIN WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...BUT CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
EVERYWHERE.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE WEATHER WILL BE
MORE SEASONABLE THAN THE LAST TWO WEEKS WITH FLATTER ALMOST ZONAL
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SLEET TO BE
MIXED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LOTS OF SHEAR AND DECENT UPPER
SUPPORT. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LACKING THOUGH WHICH WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF
MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
CANADIAN HIGH SINKS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIKELY HAVE
SOME SUB FREEZING NIGHTS...WHICH IS COMPLETELY NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT MORE OF A CONCERN THIS YEAR DUE TO UNUSUAL
WARMTH THAT HAS STARTED AN EARLY GROWING SEASON. BIG DIFFERENCES
FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ALMOST 180
DEGREES OUT OF PHASE OVER OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...THE MAIN AREA OF MVFR CIGS THAT WAS OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA
EARLIER IN THE EVENING DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED INTO NE WI...BUT PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE/BAY AND MOVE INTO
NE/EC WI. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES...BUT KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FOR BKN015-020 AT ATW/GRB THROUGH
12Z/MON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL WI LATE
THIS EVENING...BUT SHOWERS OVER SE MN SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONDAY. SCT SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
EVG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. IN ADDITION...SOME LLWS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT RHI/AUW/CWA LATE MONDAY EVENING.
KIECKBUSCH
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-019-
021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1152 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
CONFIDENCE GROWING THAT STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE PANHANDLE
LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWING CDR...AIA AND
SNY GOING DOWN BELOW IFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPING WINDS
AROUND 09Z OR SO. VERY CLOSE T/TD SPREAD ALREADY GETTING SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT AIA AND SNY. SO FEEL PRETTY GOOD THAT THEY WILL GO
DOWN FROM 09Z TO 15-16Z OR SO. AS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS TO REALLY RAMP UP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
CENTRAL WYOMING AROUND NOON TIME MONDAY. ALL AIRPORTS WILL HAVE
WIND ISSUES AFTER 18Z OR SO.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
UPDATE...
DENSE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS DOWN ACROSS
AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE REPORTED CURED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LESS WINDS HAVE ALLEVIATED ANY FIRE DANGERS TODAY. THUS THE RED
FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED A LITTLE WHILE AGO.
ATTENTION TURNS TO MONDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT
UNFOLDING. WENT AHEAD UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES TO RED
FLAG WARNINGS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OUT INTO THE
PANHANDLE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...00Z TAFS
MAIN CONCERN FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS
MONDAY LOOK TO BE WINDS. A POWERFAL...YET DRY PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SET TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING TONIGHT...CREATING VERY
STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
SPREAD OUT INTO THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STARTUS LOOKS TO
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HRRR FORECASTING IFR
CEILINGS AROUND 07Z OR SO. HAVE DELAYED ONSET SOME...BUT WILL GET
A BETTER GRASP ON THE 06Z TAFS.
CLAYCOMB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH DECENT MIXING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING IN...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. LOW TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHEAST WILL AID IN FOG AND LOW CLOUD
FORMATION NORTH OF A LUSK TO ALLIANCE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY...IMPRESSIVELY STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES TO EASTERN WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON AS ITS ASSOCIATED
POWERFUL PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALL
FACTORS POINTING TO A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT AFTER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THUS WE HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE AND ALSO TO GIVE OUR
CUSTOMERS AN EARLY HEADS UP ON THE STRONG WINDS. COMBINATION OF
STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION INDICATED ON THE 500-300 MB AND 700-500 MB
QG PROGS...ALONG WITH PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PERFECT TIMING ON COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUGGEST A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EVEN 700 MB WINDS PROGGED FROM
50-65 KNOTS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THESE WINDS WILL BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE DUE TO DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM
SUBSIDENCE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE.
ALTHOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SCANT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF A LARAMIE TO CHADRON LINE. QUITE A VARIANCE IN NAM AND
GFS PROGGED HIGH TEMPERATURES AT SOME LOCATIONS...WILL BLEND IN
THE MIDDLE AND BLEND WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES FOR THE MOST
LIKELY FORECAST.
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENT
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL AS DECENT DOWNWARD MOTION INDICATED ON THE 500-300 MB AND
700-500 MB QG PROGS...WILL EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9
PM...THEN WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA...THOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS CONTINUE HIGH WINDS
BEYOND 9 PM.
TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WEST TO EAST...AND WEAKER SURFACE
THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A MILD NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT FOR MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. THE TREND OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE WILDLAND FIRE DANGER. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO
CRITICAL LEVELS...HOWEVER WINDS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD
NOT REACH CRITERIA. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RANGE WILL MEET
WIND CRITERIA BUT FUELS ARE NOT READY FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THIS
COULD CHANGE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK WITH THE LACK OF
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AMPLIFIES IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY...
WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...IFR CEILINGS SLOW TO SCATTER AT
SIDNEY...BUT SHOULD DO SO BY MID AFTERNOON AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AIRFIELDS AND SCOTTSBLUFF WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM CHADRON THROUGH ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY.
FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30
MPH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE DISTRICT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING. MORE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS SOME OF THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ101-
WYZ102-WYZ106-WYZ107-WYZ108-WYZ116-WYZ117-WYZ118-WYZ119.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 9 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ101-
WYZ102-WYZ106-WYZ107-WYZ108-WYZ116-WYZ117-WYZ118-WYZ119.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM MONDAY FOR WYZ104-
WYZ105-WYZ109-WYZ110-WYZ111-WYZ113-WYZ115.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 9 PM MONDAY FOR NEZ002-
NEZ003-NEZ019-NEZ020-NEZ021-NEZ054-NEZ055-NEZ095-NEZ096.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR NEZ002-
NEZ003-NEZ019-NEZ020-NEZ021-NEZ054-NEZ055-NEZ095-NEZ096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
516 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
325 AM...WEAK UPPER WAVE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
AND SOUTHWEST WI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW TS. MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT THAT THIS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
IL LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT PERHAPS
MANY AREAS ONLY SEEING A TRACE...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. DESPITE
THE LOW PRECIP CHANCES...APPEARS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AS TEMPS ARE NOW
FALLING THROUGH THE 40S WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY INTO THE UPPER
30S. STILL EXPECT SOME SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BUT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT TRICKY. OVERALL ONLY TWEAKED THEM LOWER A
DEGREE OR TWO BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE COOLER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
FLOW TURNS BACK SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND COULD BE SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. BUT
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL. COULD SEE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS
THIS EVENING AND DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMES...
COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE
LOWS COULD BE IN THE MID 30S. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY
HEADLINES THIS MORNING AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE CLOSELY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOISTURE POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A TONGUE OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE THE MID/UPPER 50S. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE PARTIALLY LIMITED BY STRONG FORCING FROM THIS AREA NORTH
AND BEST INSTABILITY FROM THIS AREA SOUTH...WE/LL BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE. BEST TIMING APPEARS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING.
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
COOLER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS ENDS PRECIP A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF SATURDAY BUT OVERALL BOTH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. CMS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
516 AM MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY START IN THE 20S
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE 40S AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE 50S LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BUT BEFORE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS TEMPS RISE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY DROP INTO
THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-55.
WINDS THEN SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW DEEP THE LOW LEVELS
WILL MIX ON WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPER THE MIXING...THE STRONGER THE
WINDS/GUSTS AND THE GREATER THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DRIER AIR ALOFT
TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY HAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S. IF THESE TEMPS MATERIALIZE...COMBINED WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS AND DRIER AIR...THEN CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH LOCAL
RED FLAG CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 10Z...
* CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT
* NE WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING
* PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING
SHEA
//DISCUSSION...10Z...
THE MAIN LOW END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM ALL OF
THE TERMINALS...BUT SOME STRATOCU HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHERE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WORKING SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND WHILE IT WILL LIKELY
BE A NARROW CORRIDOR THAT IS IMPACTED...IT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
ORD. OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR
IF/WHEN PRECIP OCCURS. RADAR/TIME EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE SHOWERS
INTO RFD BY 10Z AND ACROSS ORD/MDW BY 12-13Z. THE ONE BIG POSITIVE
FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS
INTRUDING. WHILE RADAR RETURNS WILL LOOK IMPRESSIVE...MUCH WILL
FALL AS VIRGA TO START AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND FROM VFR
BASES. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BLEED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SHOULD SHUT OFF CHANCES FOR ORD/MDW/DPA/GYY EARLY...BUT RFD MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER.
SHEA
//PREVIOUS 06Z DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING STRATUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND AND WEST OF THE
EASTERN TERMINALS AS OF 06Z...AND THE TREND OF CIGS RAISING AND
OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASING...WILL CONTINUE. 11-3.9UM SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH WITH REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...WITH THE BULK OF THE LAKE STRATUS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE
MKE TO RAC CORRIDOR. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND THE UGN/PWK AND MAYBE ORD TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO...BUT RAISE HEIGHTS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE COMPASS...GOING FROM NE
TO E AND EVENTUALLY SE-SSE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE DOWN TREND INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AND WILL HOLD OUT ON
THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS GUSTS THROUGH THE 18Z HOUR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TRICKIEST FOR RFD THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS
BRINGING SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF LSE...SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS RFD INTO THE 12Z HOUR. RAW EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO 11Z...BUT ONE THING THE MODELS MAY BE STRUGGLING
WITH IS HOW DRY THE AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACTUALLY IS.
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LAST BEFORE FALLING
APART...AND WILL ADD A PERIOD OF VCSH FROM 11 TO 15Z DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS FALLING WITH RESPECT TO
ORD AND MDW...IF THEY WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE 03Z HRRR IS
REALLY INCREASING THE SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS
NECESSARY.
SHEA
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 10Z...
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST
* MODERATE TO LOW WITH ORD/MDW STAYING DRY THIS MORNING
SHEA
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
* TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FROM MID
AFTN INTO THE EVE. LLWS POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
* WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT.
* THURSDAY...VFR.
* FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
* SATURDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
SHEA
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO COME RACING DOWN THE LAKE THIS
MORNING. WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
CONSIDERABLY...ALLOWING SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS TO SEE GALE FORCE
GUSTS. THOSE HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FLOW WILL
THEN ORIENT ITSELF TO MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT..AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW 30 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
LAKE...WITH GOOD MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY PEAKING
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. IT IS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH...BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH
DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIANA SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH THAT
THEY WILL REACH FULL GALE CRITERIA AS OPPOSED TO THE ILLINOIS
SHORES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL THEN CROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SHEA
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4
AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
530 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
03Z WATER IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION ENTERING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN A SIMILAR POSITION FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 00Z
RAOBS INDICATED A SHARP CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH FAIRLY LARGE INCREASES IN MOISTURE BELOW H75
NOTED AT KDDC AND KLBF FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS EVIDENCED BY +0.3
CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THAT TIME.
ASIDE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG AND VERY SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS/FIRE WX AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY-TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LATEST RUNS OF HRRR TRYING TO
BREAK OUT SOME WEAK CONVECTION AROUND 12Z...ISENTROPIC FIELDS
SUGGEST BULK OF FORCING ALONG NOSE OF LLJ WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA AND WITH CONDENSATION DEFICITS IN EXCESS OF 130
MB...SEEMS DOUBTFUL ANY MORNING INSTABILITY WOULD BE REALIZED AND
THINK BULK OF MORNING WX CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND ANY LINGERING
FOG AROUND SUNRISE. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY AND ADJUST AS
TRENDS DICTATE.
BEST...ALBEIT SMALL...CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z
AS CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE REALLY BEGINS TO SHARPEN AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. AREA WILL STILL BE PRETTY FAR REMOVED FROM
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS WYOMING
AND WITH STRONG CAP/CINH IN PLACE HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND IF STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG AS
THEY MOVED AWAY FROM SFC FORCING. STILL FEEL SMALL POPS WARRANTED
AND GIVEN SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROFILES THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO AS THINGS INITIATE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST IN THE EVENING. WITH THE RATHER SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND FIRE WX WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS SHOULD PRETTY EASILY MEET ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT HAVE A FEW CONCERNS THAT
HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA MAY OCCUR WITH THE MUCH
DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF DRYLINE. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
NOT REALLY GIVING A SOLID CONSENSUS IN THIS REGARD AND WITH MIXED
LAYER DATA GENERALLY TOPPING AT AROUND 48 KTS AND A WEAKER SFC LOW
THAN LAST WEEK...THINK CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO UPGRADE ADVISORY TO
WARNING AT THIS POINT. FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THINK DRY LINE
WILL HUG KS/CO BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
OCCUR TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER AS LOW BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...EXPECT DRYLINE TO START ADVANCING EASTWARD. IT
WILL BE MARGINAL FROM A DURATION ASPECT...BUT FEEL UPGRADING FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO WARNING IS APPROPRIATE.
TUESDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH ADVANCING SFC
RIDGE. WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA AND SHORT
WAVE RIDGING STARTING TO DEVELOP...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY SIG WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE MAGNITUDE OF
DRY AIR THAT WILL BE ADVECTED INTO AREA BEHIND FRONT. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...POSITION OF
SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA
MITIGATING THE FIRE WX THREAT. COULD POSSIBLY SEE STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS NEBRASKA COUNTIES...BUT THINK WITH CURRENT FIRE HIGHLIGHTS
AND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER WINDS DO NOT FEEL WATCH
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE WILL
LIKELY BE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD AS NOT ONLY WILL THIS FEATURE
PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL
ALSO BRING MUCH MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE CWA. GIVEN CWA WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE DOUBTS THAT FRONT WILL MAKE A RAPID NORTHERLY SURGE
AND PREFER THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION GIVEN BY NAM AND LATEST
ENSEMBLE MEANS. IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
PERIOD...THINK MOST LIKELY PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS LLJ
INCREASES THROUGH 06Z IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ROCKIES. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING A STRONG SURGE OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO AREA...BUT ISENTROPIC SURFACES SUGGEST
FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN CWA DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL A LOT OF CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER OR
NOT PARCELS WILL SATURATE AND INSTABILITY BE REALIZED...BUT THINK A
SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS IS WARRANTED. IN ADDITION TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOTH NIGHTS WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG FORMATION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START THIS PERIOD.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ADJACENT PLAINS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. APPEARS THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND COUPLED WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
HOW TO HANDLE THAT SYSTEM VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO WILL NOT
CARRY ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
PATCHY FOG AND SOME LINGERING LLWS WILL CONTINUE AROUND MCK THROUGH
13Z AS WEAK FRONTAL ZONE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL QUICKLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH BRINGING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND A PROFILE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR LLWS. OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN FOR PERIOD WILL BE
HOW FAST AND HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE...MAINLY BTNW 20-01Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS GET TO AROUND 44KTS AT BOTH
LOCATIONS...WITH WINDS BRIEFLY WEAKENING IN THE EVENING BEFORE
STRONG COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT COMES THROUGH AFTER 04Z. COULD STILL
SEE SOME BLOWING DUST CAUSING VISBY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AS
DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH GLD BUT WITH RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DO
NOT THINK PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. EXPECTED
COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE VERY LOW AND DO NOT PLAN
ON INCLUDING EVEN A VCTS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
STATE LINE AS A DRYLINE SLOWLY ADVANCES TO THE EAST TODAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A SUDDEN SHIFT IN THE WINDS AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING
HUMIDITIES DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IF WINDS DO OCCUR...WILL
LIKELY BE A MUCH SMALLER MAGNITUDE OF EVENT THAN TODAY AND CHOSE
TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO AVOID CONFUSION ABOUT TODAYS
WARNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ252>254.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ090>092.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1039 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING IN WESTERN IOWA. ALSO EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ONE MORE
TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER EAST...INTO THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA METRO
AREAS AS THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE JUST ON THE EDGE OF THE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AS
SHOWERS FINALLY HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM AROUND BLAIR TO
PLATTSMOUTH TO NEBRASKA CITY. SO FAR...NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED...BUT STILL THINK A FEW STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE...AND KEPT
ISOLATED WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
MAYES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
SOME MID-LEVEL CIGS WILL INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT ALL SITES. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH KOMA THE
MOST LIKELY SITE TO BE AFFECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON BOTH
OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE THOUGH...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING UP TO
30-35KT AT KOMA/KLNK...AND UP TO AROUND 35-40KT AT KOFK. SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONT BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
WESTERLY...AFFECTING KOFK EARLIEST...AND KOMA/KLNK AT THE END OF
THE TAF CYCLE OR JUST OUTSIDE OF IT.
MAYES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS IS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS PROGGED TO TAKE A
TRACK NEWD TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
TUE. AHEAD OF THE STRONG SYSTEM LOW LEVEL WAA IS CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS WITH THE
MOISTURE ATTM...AND THUS A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDC
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC THIS MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AROUND 850
MB AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CIN HOLDING BACK THE CONVECTION.
WE FEEL THIS TREND WILL CONT TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS B/W 12-15Z OVER THE CNTRL AND SERN CWA FOR ANYTHING
ISO THAT MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE FA. WINDS AT 925 (850) MB INCREASE TO 40 (55) KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOME OF
THIS SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE SURFACE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MIXING THOUGH...AND WE WOULD FEEL BETTER WITH A DUE SOUTH OR
SW WIND...SO A WIND ADVRY IS NO SLAM DUNK...BUT WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING TO 925 MB WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SITES MEET
CRITERIA THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG HOURS. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY.
THE DRY LINE STILL LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE WRN HI PLAINS TODAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. SOME POSITIVE CAPE
IS INDICATED NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT CIN IS SIGNIFICANT AND WITH
MUCH OF THE FORCING GOING INTO SODAK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NEB AREA LOOKS PRETTY LOW...AND ESPECIALLY ANYTHING THAT WOULD
WORK INTO OUR FA. THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SCHC FOR THIS EVNG IN
THE NW. A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACTUALLY COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ERN FA AS BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE
ADVANCING PAC CDFNT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONT SOME
CHC POPS IN THE E AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY TUES MRNG WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
EXPECTED FOR TUE/WED.
THE SURFACE FNT STILL LOOKS TO HANG UP OVER MO/KS ON TUE/WED AND
THIS WILL START TO RETREAT NWD WED NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THU
(ALTHOUGH I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO
NEB). AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHRTWV PROGGED FOR
THU NIGHT SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY WORK AROUND THE FNT AND INTO
CNTRL NEB BY LATE THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THU...THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE PAST FRI.
BOUSTEAD
FIRE WEATHER...
IN THE POST FRONT AIRMASS ON TUES THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OR HIGHER WILL
LEAD TO DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY IN THE
CNTRL AND WRN CWA. DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES
WITH THE MIXING ON TUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 70S. THIS WILL CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF RH BELOW 20
PERCENT DURING THE AFTN ON TUES. WITH STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SD...SFC WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED ABOVE 15 KT WITH
GUSTS WELL OVER 25 KT. THIS ALL SHOULD COMBINED FOR A DANGEROUS
FIRE WX DAY...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP NICELY AROUND
THE AREA...AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUES FOR
A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.
BOUSTEAD/MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>067-078-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-033-034-
043>045-050>053-065-066-078.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
016>018-030>032-042.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
754 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AS
SHOWERS FINALLY HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM AROUND BLAIR TO
PLATTSMOUTH TO NEBRASKA CITY. SO FAR...NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED...BUT STILL THINK A FEW STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE...AND KEPT
ISOLATED WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
MAYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
SOME MID-LEVEL CIGS WILL INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT ALL SITES. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH KOMA THE
MOST LIKELY SITE TO BE AFFECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON BOTH
OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE THOUGH...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING UP TO
30-35KT AT KOMA/KLNK...AND UP TO AROUND 35-40KT AT KOFK. SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONT BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
WESTERLY...AFFECTING KOFK EARLIEST...AND KOMA/KLNK AT THE END OF
THE TAF CYCLE OR JUST OUTSIDE OF IT.
MAYES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS IS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS PROGGED TO TAKE A
TRACK NEWD TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
TUE. AHEAD OF THE STRONG SYSTEM LOW LEVEL WAA IS CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS WITH THE
MOISTURE ATTM...AND THUS A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDC
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC THIS MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AROUND 850
MB AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CIN HOLDING BACK THE CONVECTION.
WE FEEL THIS TREND WILL CONT TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS B/W 12-15Z OVER THE CNTRL AND SERN CWA FOR ANYTHING
ISO THAT MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE FA. WINDS AT 925 (850) MB INCREASE TO 40 (55) KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOME OF
THIS SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE SURFACE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MIXING THOUGH...AND WE WOULD FEEL BETTER WITH A DUE SOUTH OR
SW WIND...SO A WIND ADVRY IS NO SLAM DUNK...BUT WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING TO 925 MB WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SITES MEET
CRITERIA THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG HOURS. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY.
THE DRY LINE STILL LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE WRN HI PLAINS TODAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. SOME POSITIVE CAPE
IS INDICATED NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT CIN IS SIGNIFICANT AND WITH
MUCH OF THE FORCING GOING INTO SODAK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NEB AREA LOOKS PRETTY LOW...AND ESPECIALLY ANYTHING THAT WOULD
WORK INTO OUR FA. THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SCHC FOR THIS EVNG IN
THE NW. A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACTUALLY COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ERN FA AS BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE
ADVANCING PAC CDFNT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONT SOME
CHC POPS IN THE E AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY TUES MRNG WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
EXPECTED FOR TUE/WED.
THE SURFACE FNT STILL LOOKS TO HANG UP OVER MO/KS ON TUE/WED AND
THIS WILL START TO RETREAT NWD WED NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THU
(ALTHOUGH I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO
NEB). AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHRTWV PROGGED FOR
THU NIGHT SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY WORK AROUND THE FNT AND INTO
CNTRL NEB BY LATE THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THU...THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE PAST FRI.
BOUSTEAD
FIRE WEATHER...
IN THE POST FRONT AIRMASS ON TUES THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OR HIGHER WILL
LEAD TO DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY IN THE
CNTRL AND WRN CWA. DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES
WITH THE MIXING ON TUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 70S. THIS WILL CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF RH BELOW 20
PERCENT DURING THE AFTN ON TUES. WITH STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SD...SFC WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED ABOVE 15 KT WITH
GUSTS WELL OVER 25 KT. THIS ALL SHOULD COMBINED FOR A DANGEROUS
FIRE WX DAY...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP NICELY AROUND
THE AREA...AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUES FOR
A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.
BOUSTEAD/MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>067-078-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ015-033-043-044-050-051-065-078.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
646 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
SOME MID-LEVEL CIGS WILL INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT ALL SITES. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH KOMA THE
MOST LIKELY SITE TO BE AFFECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON BOTH
OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE THOUGH...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING UP TO
30-35KT AT KOMA/KLNK...AND UP TO AROUND 35-40KT AT KOFK. SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONT BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
WESTERLY...AFFECTING KOFK EARLIEST...AND KOMA/KLNK AT THE END OF
THE TAF CYCLE OR JUST OUTSIDE OF IT.
MAYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS IS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS PROGGED TO TAKE A
TRACK NEWD TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
TUE. AHEAD OF THE STRONG SYSTEM LOW LEVEL WAA IS CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS WITH THE
MOISTURE ATTM...AND THUS A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDC
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC THIS MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AROUND 850
MB AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CIN HOLDING BACK THE CONVECTION.
WE FEEL THIS TREND WILL CONT TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS B/W 12-15Z OVER THE CNTRL AND SERN CWA FOR ANYTHING
ISO THAT MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE FA. WINDS AT 925 (850) MB INCREASE TO 40 (55) KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOME OF
THIS SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE SURFACE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MIXING THOUGH...AND WE WOULD FEEL BETTER WITH A DUE SOUTH OR
SW WIND...SO A WIND ADVRY IS NO SLAM DUNK...BUT WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING TO 925 MB WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SITES MEET
CRITERIA THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG HOURS. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY.
THE DRY LINE STILL LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE WRN HI PLAINS TODAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. SOME POSITIVE CAPE
IS INDICATED NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT CIN IS SIGNIFICANT AND WITH
MUCH OF THE FORCING GOING INTO SODAK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NEB AREA LOOKS PRETTY LOW...AND ESPECIALLY ANYTHING THAT WOULD
WORK INTO OUR FA. THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SCHC FOR THIS EVNG IN
THE NW. A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACTUALLY COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ERN FA AS BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE
ADVANCING PAC CDFNT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONT SOME
CHC POPS IN THE E AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY TUES MRNG WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
EXPECTED FOR TUE/WED.
THE SURFACE FNT STILL LOOKS TO HANG UP OVER MO/KS ON TUE/WED AND
THIS WILL START TO RETREAT NWD WED NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THU
(ALTHOUGH I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO
NEB). AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHRTWV PROGGED FOR
THU NIGHT SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY WORK AROUND THE FNT AND INTO
CNTRL NEB BY LATE THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THU...THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE PAST FRI.
BOUSTEAD
FIRE WEATHER...
IN THE POST FRONT AIRMASS ON TUES THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OR HIGHER WILL
LEAD TO DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY IN THE
CNTRL AND WRN CWA. DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES
WITH THE MIXING ON TUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 70S. THIS WILL CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF RH BELOW 20
PERCENT DURING THE AFTN ON TUES. WITH STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SD...SFC WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED ABOVE 15 KT WITH
GUSTS WELL OVER 25 KT. THIS ALL SHOULD COMBINED FOR A DANGEROUS
FIRE WX DAY...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP NICELY AROUND
THE AREA...AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUES FOR
A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.
BOUSTEAD/MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>067-078-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ015-033-043-044-050-051-065-078.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
629 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN TODAY AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A BRIEF WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS DRIER AIR LURKING JUST WEST
OF THE AREA PLUS CONTINUING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SHOULD ERODE MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DISCUSSION
FROM 3 AM FOLLOWS...
THE COLD UPPER LOW IS NOW WELL EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND MOVING OUT
TO SEA. OUR MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW AND A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTH AND THROUGH
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULDN`T
BE ANY CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BRING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN
NEARLY TWO WEEKS.
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING SWIRLING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH CAROLINA.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS REVEALS SINKING PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY ERODE THESE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AFTER 14Z (10 AM) SUNSHINE SHOULD BE BREAKING OUT
EVEN IN THE WILMINGTON AREA...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 75-80
TODAY... WARMEST IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA PEE DEE REGION AND COOLEST
ALONG THE NC EAST-FACING BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO
43-48...COOLEST IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND WARMEST
NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT TUESDAY
WILL BE THE FIRST BELOW CLIMO DAY SINCE MARCH 11 AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP TEMPS BELOW...TO WELL BELOW...SEASONABLE NORMS...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS BEING IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE NE WINDS ADVECT
OFF THE COOL OCEAN. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY TUESDAY...NOTE
THAT FREQUENTLY MOISTURE IS UNDER-MODELED IN WEDGE SCENARIOS SO WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER MORE THAN SUGGESTED BY PROFILES. MIXING WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH TO BELOW 900MB...AND LOW LEVEL 1000-900MB
THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR WILMINGTON...TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC.
HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DECOUPLING IN THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE...AND CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT...AS IT IS...IS WHETHER
SOME SLIGHT LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH DRIFTS
OFFSHORE...OR WHETHER WE CAN STAY PERFECTLY CALM. NEARLY ALL THE
FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM 06Z-12Z
WEDNESDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE. BELIEVE IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR SUCH SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AFTER MANY HOURS OF NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL NOT
DROP MINS AS LOW AS MAV NUMBERS...AND OPT FOR LOW 40S AREA
WIDE...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS POTENTIALLY TOUCHING 39.
BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH HAS DRIFTED OFFSHORE AND WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW COMES BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS WILL
HELP RAISE TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE CLIMO...MID 70S AWAY FROM THE
COAST...AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT WILL KEEPS TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH OUT OF THE MID 50S AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE LONG TERM OCCURS
LATE THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN TO THE WEEKEND.
MODERATELY POTENT S/W TROUGH DIGS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY...SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. STILL NOTING TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT FOR PERSISTENCE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF/CMC OVER THE GFS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE DOES TRY TO
ADVECT INTO OUR AREA JUST AHEAD OF FROPA...SO WILL CARRY SCHC POP
FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY EVE/NIGHT. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION COMES
TRUE...850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 80
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE EXTENDED. IF...HOWEVER...A FASTER FROPA OCCURS...THIS
WILL OBVIOUSLY CUT TEMPS BACK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
WOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF AFTN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI/SAT RETURNING THE
AREA TO NEAR CLIMO TEMPS...POSSIBLY BELOW CLIMO WITH SOME NE FLOW ON
FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY ON EVOLUTION AND
STRENGTH OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM S/W DROPPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
RIDGE. GFS IS FASTER AND WEAKER...CONTINUING ITS TREND THIS
YEAR...SO WILL BLEND ECMWF/GFS BUT WITH ADDITIONAL WEIGHT ON THE
FORMER. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WKND
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...
RADAR AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST IT`S NOT OVER FOR NORTH
CAROLINA JUST YET. SHOWERS ROTATING SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL AFFECT THE ILM
TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z...WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
LBT VICINITY THROUGH 0730Z OR SO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO CEILING HEIGHTS...MVFR SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BUT IFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PARTICULARLY AFTER 08Z. AFTER DAYBREAK WINDS
WILL PICK UP...GUSTING OVER 20 KTS BY MID MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME
NEARLY CLEAR AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE
MORNING FOG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...NORTH WINDS 15-20 KT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AS FORECAST. WE SHOULD BE IN THE 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF
STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3 AM
FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE NC OUTER BANKS AND WILL MOVE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO HIGH PRESSURE IN
CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS HIGH MOVES SOUTH IT WILL PUSH A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT...REACHING 15-20 KT BY LATE THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL SEAS COULD
REACH 6 FEET IN THE WATERS NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS DUE TO THEIR
EXPOSED POSITION IN THIS WIND DIRECTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO RAISE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE SEAS 2-4 FEET TODAY
SHOULD BUILD TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT AWAY FROM SHORE WITH THE INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NE SURGE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AROUND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AT LEAST CAUTIONARY HEADLINES APPEAR
LIKELY TO BE IN EFFECT TUESDAY MORNING WITH 15-20 KT WINDS CREATING
4-5 FT NE WIND WAVES CONTROLLING THE WAVE SPECTRUM. DURING
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS SO WINDS/WAVES
RAPIDLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM
OVERNIGHT WHILE SEAS FALL TO 1-2 FT. GRADIENT INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. THIS PUTS THE WATERS INTO A PRE FRONTAL REGIME...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS FORCING SEAS BACK UP TO 3-5 FT...AND
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NECESSARY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CAUTIONARY HEADLINES POSSIBLY ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT. SW WIND WAVES OF
3-5 FT EARLY THURSDAY FALL TO 2-3 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF
CONFUSED SEAS IS LIKELY THURSDAY EVE AS THE WAVE SPECTRUM FEATURES
TWO DOMINANT WIND WAVES...ONE SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM THE SW...WHILE A
BUILDING NE WIND WAVE DEVELOPS. N/NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FRIDAY
KEEP SEAS ONLY AROUND 2 FT THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
645 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
325 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH MID WEEK IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY INTO TOMORROW AND WHETHER ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS A RESULT OF THE
COMBINATION OF A FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 850-500MB AND
THE EASTERN WING OF INCREASING 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
CONVECTION IS REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
THAT FEATURES A DEW POINT DEPRESSION OF ABOUT 35C AT 830MB PER THE
26.00Z MPX SOUNDING. THE QUESTION FOR THIS MORNING IS WITH HOW
LONG THE CONVECTION WILL HOLD ON FOR. THE 26.00Z NAM CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THIS FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION DRIFTING NORTH AND
STAYING STRONG THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 26.05Z AND PREVIOUS HRRR RUNS
SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION HOLDING ON INTO THE MORNING...HAVE
KEPT SOME DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING AT MEDFORD. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING
GOING UNTIL 8AM FOR TAYLOR COUNTY.
JUST AS THIS FIRST BAND OF FORCING WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON...925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 300-310K SURFACES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA WHILE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THIS
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSE SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES
STILL LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR THIS CONVECTION HOLDING ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FEEDING
INTO THESE SHOWERS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDER OCCURRING...BUT
NOTHING VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO GET ORGANIZED AND POSE A SEVERE THREAT.
AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH...THE MAIN CHANNEL OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OR POSSIBLY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
AS THIS MOISTURE FEED SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST AS WELL AND GET TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY MID AFTERNOON. THE 26.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
0-3KM MUCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT DOES CONVECT FURTHER SOUTH IN EASTERN IOWA
WHERE THIS INSTABILITY CROSSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
DESPITE 0-3KM WIND SHEAR BEING VERY FAVORABLE AT 40KTS...THE
PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IF THE COLD FRONT CAN PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A KICKER...A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO FORM THOUGH THE WINDOW
LOOKS VERY SMALL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A COOLER AND VERY DRY AIR MASS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM +10C
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND -2C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS
COLDER...YET SEASONAL...AIR MASS IN PLACE...LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
HAVE NOT PUT ANY FROST IN THE FORECAST YET SINCE WINDS APPEAR TO
STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FROM FORMING.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
325 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
THE 26.00Z GFS AND ECMWF GET OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW UP INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND BRING THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON IN. SOME DISCREPANCIES START
SHOWING UP ON FRIDAY AS THE 26.00Z GFS HOLDS ONTO THE
PRECIPITATION LONGER THAN THE 26.00Z ECMWF. THE 26.00Z ECMWF/GEM
BOTH BRING A MORE POTENT LOW THROUGH ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY THAN WHAT
THE 26.00Z GFS HAS. BEYOND THIS...THE GFS HOLDS UP THE TROUGH OUT
WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR NOW...HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF EACH RATHER
THAN TO GRAB ONTO ONE EXTREME OR THE OTHER WITH THE GFS BEING THE
WARM EXTREME AND THE ECMWF BEING THE COLD EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY INTO TUESDAY
645 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCT -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WITH THE FORCING ELEVATED AND A DRIER LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA...CIGS/VSBYS LOOKING TO REMAIN VFR WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE -SHRA. WITH ANY -TSRA ISOLATED...ONLY INCLUDED A CB MENTION FOR
THE LATER MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT WEAKENS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH A LULL IN THE -SHRA...THEN INCREASES AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT AND INCREASING EAST/SOUTHEAST SFC-850MB
FLOW...CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY -SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA TONIGHT AGAIN LOOK
TO REMAIN VFR. WITH SCT COVERAGE AND THE -SHRA LOOKING TO BE LIGHT
ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA TODAY/TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN BRISK EAST/ SOUTHEAST WINDS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER/OPEN TERRAIN SITES LIKE
KRST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TUE...SWINGING THE
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. SUBSIDENCE AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25KT G35KT MUCH OF TUE...
AGAIN MAINLY AT THE HIGHER/OPEN TERRAIN SITES LIKE KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
325 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
612 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND SHIFT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING
UPDATE.
EXPECT A CLEAR AND TRANQUIL EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND NE WINDS WILL SURGE
PERHAPS RESULTING IN SOME UNEVEN TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THE FRONT
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT MOSTLY CLEAR FORECASTS ARE REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW OF THE COOLEST INLAND LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S BRIEFLY AROUND DAYBREAK. AT THE COAST...TEMPERATURES
COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60F THIS EVENING...THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY RISE A FEW DEGREES AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPS LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN NOTICEABLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DESCENDING FRONT WILL CREATE A DECENT
NORTH/SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
BE SUPPRESSED AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA...WHILE RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RESULTING WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SUPPORTING
MORE SEASONAL LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DESCEND
SOUTHWARD AND SLIP OFF THE COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE WARMER FLOW AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PULLING A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING A DECENT TAP
INTO DEEPER MOISTURE. RAIN POTENTIAL THUS APPEARS QUITE LIMITED ON
THURSDAY AND PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT AT THIS
POINT. SINCE THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITHIN SOME PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES.
AFTER A WARM-UP MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AGAIN BY A
FEW DEGREES.
RIGHT NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. AN AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT COMES ASHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID WEEK WILL WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND APPROACH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TIMING AND DETAILS
ARE TOO TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...BUT WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCHS/KSAV.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE FACTOR.
&&
.MARINE...
INCOMING RUC DATA SUGGESTS THE FRONT AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SURGE
WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE START TIMES OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THESE ZONES
GIVEN THESE TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE TONIGHT
PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH NOON ON
TUESDAY...WHILE MAINTAINING ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A BETTER FETCH OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY-LEVEL SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH WITH THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT
WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DESCENDS TOWARD
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO
RISE ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 455 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
HAVE TRIMMED POPS FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO LAPS/SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG BUT CINH AROUND NEGATIVE 200 TO 400 J/KG. DEWPOINTS
ARE MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. FOLLOWED THE LATEST HRRR FOR GUIDANCE. HAVE DOUBTS ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL FORM THIS EVENING AND THE INSTABILITY THAT
IS CURRENTLY PRESENT WILL ALL GO TO MID LEVEL CLOUD FORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE
PERIOD.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA, POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS KANSAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THIS EVENING, THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AN
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS INCREASING FORCING NEAR THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO POOL SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...INCLUDING A MODEST +70KT JET...WILL
SKIRT JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, THE DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS, THERE IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY (LOW CAPE) DUE TO
THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, NOT TO MENTION A
POSSIBLE CAPPING ISSUE. STILL, CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT POPS SEEM REASONABLE HERE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AS THE
APPROACHING LEE SIDE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS
MAINLY DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S(F) TO LOW 50S(F). A FEW 40S(F)
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GO NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TUESDAY, A SMALL AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO WORK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS DURING THE DAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS(C). SHOULD SEE HIGHS UP
INTO THE 70S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH LOWER 80S(F) POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 5
BEFORE STARTING TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN STATES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF STAFFORD TO MEDICINE
LODGE AND COLDWATER. THE MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A PRECIPITATION
SIGNAL ALONG THE FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S
AROUND MEDICINE LODGE, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE NEARLY
UNCAPPED BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MODERATE CAPE VALUES FORECAST.
AN EIGHTY KNOT JET WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FARTHER NORTHWEST IT APPEARS
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED TO PREVENT ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING INTO THE AREA WE COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCES AROUND HIGHWAY
281 AND EAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE POPS IN THE
PRATT-MEDICINE LODGE-COLDWATER AREAS.
THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
TOWARD DAY 7 THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS PRETTY LOW. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS FOR WINDS, A STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. AS
A RESULT, SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 77 49 81 / 20 0 10 10
GCK 46 75 45 80 / 20 0 10 10
EHA 45 75 43 80 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 50 77 45 81 / 20 0 0 10
HYS 50 75 46 80 / 10 0 10 10
P28 57 80 56 82 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>080-084>089.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM....GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1135 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
03Z WATER IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION ENTERING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN A SIMILAR POSITION FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 00Z
RAOBS INDICATED A SHARP CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH FAIRLY LARGE INCREASES IN MOISTURE BELOW H75
NOTED AT KDDC AND KLBF FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS EVIDENCED BY +0.3
CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THAT TIME.
ASIDE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG AND VERY SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS/FIRE WX AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY-TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LATEST RUNS OF HRRR TRYING TO
BREAK OUT SOME WEAK CONVECTION AROUND 12Z...ISENTROPIC FIELDS
SUGGEST BULK OF FORCING ALONG NOSE OF LLJ WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA AND WITH CONDENSATION DEFICITS IN EXCESS OF 130
MB...SEEMS DOUBTFUL ANY MORNING INSTABILITY WOULD BE REALIZED AND
THINK BULK OF MORNING WX CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND ANY LINGERING
FOG AROUND SUNRISE. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY AND ADJUST AS
TRENDS DICTATE.
BEST...ALBEIT SMALL...CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z
AS CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE REALLY BEGINS TO SHARPEN AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. AREA WILL STILL BE PRETTY FAR REMOVED FROM
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS WYOMING
AND WITH STRONG CAP/CINH IN PLACE HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND IF STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG AS
THEY MOVED AWAY FROM SFC FORCING. STILL FEEL SMALL POPS WARRANTED
AND GIVEN SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROFILES THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO AS THINGS INITIATE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST IN THE EVENING. WITH THE RATHER SMALL
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND FIRE WX WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS SHOULD PRETTY EASILY MEET ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT HAVE A FEW CONCERNS THAT
HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA MAY OCCUR WITH THE MUCH
DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF DRYLINE. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
NOT REALLY GIVING A SOLID CONSENSUS IN THIS REGARD AND WITH MIXED
LAYER DATA GENERALLY TOPPING AT AROUND 48 KTS AND A WEAKER SFC LOW
THAN LAST WEEK...THINK CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO UPGRADE ADVISORY TO
WARNING AT THIS POINT. FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THINK DRY LINE
WILL HUG KS/CO BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
OCCUR TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER AS LOW BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...EXPECT DRYLINE TO START ADVANCING EASTWARD. IT
WILL BE MARGINAL FROM A DURATION ASPECT...BUT FEEL UPGRADING FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO WARNING IS APPROPRIATE.
TUESDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH ADVANCING SFC
RIDGE. WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA AND SHORT
WAVE RIDGING STARTING TO DEVELOP...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY SIG WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE MAGNITUDE OF
DRY AIR THAT WILL BE ADVECTED INTO AREA BEHIND FRONT. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...POSITION OF
SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA
MITIGATING THE FIRE WX THREAT. COULD POSSIBLY SEE STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS NEBRASKA COUNTIES...BUT THINK WITH CURRENT FIRE HIGHLIGHTS
AND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER WINDS DO NOT FEEL WATCH
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE WILL
LIKELY BE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD AS NOT ONLY WILL THIS FEATURE
PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL
ALSO BRING MUCH MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE CWA. GIVEN CWA WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE DOUBTS THAT FRONT WILL MAKE A RAPID NORTHERLY SURGE
AND PREFER THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION GIVEN BY NAM AND LATEST
ENSEMBLE MEANS. IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
PERIOD...THINK MOST LIKELY PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS LLJ
INCREASES THROUGH 06Z IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ROCKIES. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING A STRONG SURGE OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO AREA...BUT ISENTROPIC SURFACES SUGGEST
FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN CWA DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL A LOT OF CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER OR
NOT PARCELS WILL SATURATE AND INSTABILITY BE REALIZED...BUT THINK A
SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS IS WARRANTED. IN ADDITION TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOTH NIGHTS WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG FORMATION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START THIS PERIOD.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ADJACENT PLAINS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. APPEARS THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND COUPLED WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
HOW TO HANDLE THAT SYSTEM VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO WILL NOT
CARRY ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...AND WHILE GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG
THIS EVENING AS THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ON TUESDAY MORNING AT
KGLD...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD RETURN TO KMCK GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
STATE LINE AS A DRYLINE SLOWLY ADVANCES TO THE EAST TODAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A SUDDEN SHIFT IN THE WINDS AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING
HUMIDITIES DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IF WINDS DO OCCUR...WILL
LIKELY BE A MUCH SMALLER MAGNITUDE OF EVENT THAN TODAY AND CHOSE
TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO AVOID CONFUSION ABOUT TODAYS
WARNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-013-027-041.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
650 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY...CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MOSTLY WESTERN
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
SOME CONCERNS THAT WIND ADVISORY MADE BE NEED TO BE MOVED
UP AS SOME GUSTS CLOSING CLOSE TO 45-50 MPH MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE RUC INDICATES WINDS PICKING UP LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY AS DOES THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM.
ATTM, WILL KEEP THINGS AS THEY W/WIND ADVISORY. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO LOWER MINS TONIGHT DOWN A CATEGORY W/SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE
FAR N AND W.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ON STIFF NW WINDS DID NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH
TEMP RISE THIS AFTN...SO WE HAD TO LOWER AFTN HI TEMPS AGAIN JUST
TO GET A REALISTIC HRLY TEMP TREND TO FCST LOWS POSTED ARND 6-7 AM
EDT TUE. MDTLY STRONG SFC PRES GRAD WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE F AND
SOME CLDNSS OVR NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION TNGT WILL NOT ALLOW
FOR ANY XPCTD INVSN TO FORM...SO WE WENT STRAIGHT WITH RAW NAM
FCST LOW TEMPS. WE KEPT CHC SN SHWR POPS FOR FAR NRN PTNS OF THE
FA FOR THIS EVE AS THE UPPER LOW OVR THE GASPE PNSL MOVES SE INTO
NE NB. OTHERWISE...CLDS SHOULD DECREASE OVR THE N AND CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA LATER TNGT INTO ERLY TUE MORN.
WINDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN GUSTING AS HIGH AS LOWER 4OS MPH A FEW
SITES WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE OVRNGT OVR LOW LYING AREAS...BUT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG OVR OPEN HIER TRRN AREAS. WINDS ALF...
SPCLY IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL INCREASE TO AOA 40 KT LATER
TNGT INTO TUE MORN ACROSS THE FA AS THE SFC PRES GRAD REMAINS
STRONG BETWEEN SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRES IN THE MARITIMES AND HI
PRES OVR WRN QB. THIS IN COMBO WITH MSLY SUNNY SKIES XPCTD ACROSS
ALL OF THE REGION ON TUE WILL STEEPEN SFC-1 KM LAPSE RATES...
ALLOWING POTENTIAL MIX DOWN OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ALF IN
GUSTS...BEGINNING SHORTLY AFT DAYBREAK TUE DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF
ANY ESTABLISHED BL TNGT AND CONTG TIL ABOUT SUNSET...AT WHICH
TM...WINDS ALF...SFC PRES GRAD AND LLVL INSTABILITY ALL BEGIN
DECREASING.
WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...HI TEMPS TUE AFTN WILL BE LUCKY TO HAVE A
10 TO 15 DEG F DIURNAL RISE FROM LOWS ERLY TUE MORN...RANGING FROM
MID 20S XTRM N TO MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST...MAKING TUE QUITE A
CONTRAST FROM THE RECORD WARM DAYS OF MID LAST WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY SETS UP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER BY THE OVERNIGHT CLOUDS
WILL ALREADY BY ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT AS LOW AS SOME WHAT SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING BUT NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT LOWS TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE GEM GLOBAL AND THE NAM TRACK THE SYSTEM EAST GIVING
MOST OF THE AREA A CONTINUING PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WHILE THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUICKER TO SHUNT THE
SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CIRCULATION
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. AT THIS POINT
OPTED TO PLAY THE MIDDLE GROUND AND BRING CHANCE POPS TO ALL BUT
EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD AND HOLDING
POPS JUST BELOW THE LIKELY RANGE OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.
NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL ALLOW FOR
ANY MIXED PRECIP OR RAIN TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME MIXING LIKELY ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION TO HAVE OCCURRED BY THIS
TIME MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT ANY
AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. A DRIER NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SO
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH A PD OF MVFR CLGS IN BKN-OVC TNGT AT KFVE AND
POSSIBLE AT KCAR AND KPQI.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SNOW/RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS THRU MOST OF
TUE AFTN AS ADVERTISED OVR THE PAST DAY OR SO. ONCE IT RUNS OUT...
AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF WATERS VERY LATE TUE AFTN INTO
TUE EVE. WENT WITH AN EVEN BLEND 12Z GFS/NAM/GMOS FOR WINDS AND
A 40%/30%/30% WW3/SWAN-GFS/SWAN NAM BLEND FOR WV HTS...WHICH RAISE
WV HTS BY WW3 ALONE AN XTRA FOOT TO FOOT AND A HALF OVR OUTER MOST
WATERS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW BY LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND WILL ALSO BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE ST OF ME FOREST SERVICE...WE OPTD TO
ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR ZONES 5...6 SWRD TO THE COAST. AREAS
N AND W OF THE WATCH AREA HAVE FINE FUELS DEEMED TO WET TO BE
ABLE TO DRY OUT FOR POSSIBLE IGNITION. WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
FINE FUELS HAVE BEEN DAMPENED FROM RELATIVELY LGT QPF FROM YSDY`S
PRECIP EVENT...BUT VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW MIDDAY AND AFTN RH`S
COULD DRY OUT FUELS TO HIGH DANGER RATING CATEGORY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
OF DRYING POTENTIAL BETWEEN NOW AND MIDDAY TUE...IT`S A TOSS UP
WHETHER THE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLG WRNG FOR ALL OR
PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA MIDDAY TIL ERLY EVE TUE OR TO AN SPS
HIGHLIGHTING NO BURNING OF REFUGE DURG THIS TM. A DECISION WILL
BE MADE REGARDING THESE OPTIONS LATE TUE MORN.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPRAWLING UPR RDG
OVER CNTRL NAMERICA BTWN TROFS OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER
OFF THE W COAST. HUDSON BAY HI PRES UNDER THE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF
BTWN THE RDG AND ERN TROF AS WELL AS VERY DRY AIRMASS DEPICTED ON
THE 12Z INL AND GRB RAOBS /12Z H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION WAS 43C AT INL/
ARE BRINGING A TRANQUIL BUT MORE SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY TO UPR MI.
BUT MORE CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHARP WARM FNT ATTENDANT TO DVLPG
LO PRES IN THE NW HI PLAINS ARE SPREADING FM MN/NW WI TOWARD IWD.
THIS SFC LO IS ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE DESERT SW. THE WARM FNT SEPARATES VERY WARM
AIRMASS IN THE SRN PLAINS WITH 12Z H85 TEMP AS HI AS 20C AT DODGE
CITY KS FM CHILLY AIRMASS IN THE GRT LKS/H85 TEMPS OF -8C AT YPL AND
APX. SOME -SHRASN ARE FALLING OVER PARTS OF MN/NW WI UNDER THE
THICKER CLDS/ SHARPER H85-7 FGEN AS 12Z MPX RAOB SHOWS A SATURATED
LYR FM H85-5. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LTG STRIKES UNDER THIS BAND OF
SHRA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO TUE ARE MIXED PCPN/ICING POTENTIAL/
GOING FZRA ADVY ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WARM FNT...THEN SHRA CHCS ON
TUE WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOT.
TNGT...AS HI PRES/COLD DRY AIRMASS IN ONTARIO THIS AFTN RETREAT INTO
QUEBEC AND SHRTWV IN THE DESERT SW SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS
TNGT IN RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW...ATTENDANT WARM FNT/CLD BAND TO
THE SW WL CLOSE IN ON UPR MI. THE COMBINATION OF VIGOROUS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/MID LVL MOISTENING ACCOMPANYING STRENGHTENING SSW FLOW/H925
WINDS INCRSG TO 50KTS...INCRSG H4-2 DVGC...AND H85-7 FGEN WL ALLOW
FOR PCPN TO BREAK OUT W-E TOWARD ERY ARND 12Z DESPITE LINGERING LLVL
DRY AIR. SINCE THE MID LVLS MOISTEN AND DYNAMICS ARRIVE BEFORE THE
LLVLS WARM/MOISTEN...FCST SDNGS INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
FZRA/SLEET WITH WBLB TEMPS AS LO AS -5C TO -7C IN THE SUB H85 LYR
UNDER THE FGEN PCPN BAND. USED A NON DIURNAL TOOL FOR TEMPS WITH MIN
READINGS RELATIVELY EARLY...THEN TEMPS RISING LATER WITH INCRSG
WIND/WAD. EVAPORATE COOLING NEAR THE SFC WL TEND TO SLOW THE RISE IN
AREAS EXPERIENCING PCPN. INCLUDED MENTION OF TS W OF THE AXIS OF MAX
FGEN WITH H8-5 LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC ENHANCED BY THE
WAD/VIGOROUS DYNAMICS.
TUE...SHRTWV/OCCLUDED LO ARE FCST TO MOVE TO JUST NW OF THUNDER BAY
ONTARIO BY 00Z WED...WITH ACCOMPANYING DRY SLOT ON ITS SE FLANK
IMPACTING THE CWA. AFT AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/WAD/H85-7 FGEN/H4-2 DVGC
EXIT THE E BY 18Z...ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA AS FCST SDNGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MID LVL DRYING/
CAPPING DVLPG AFT THE EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMICS. GUSTY WINDS
WL DVLP WITH LLVL WARMING/DESTABILIZATION MIXING OUT THE HIER
MOMENTUM ABV INITIAL SHARP INVRN. BEST CHC FOR CLRG WL BE OVER THE
FAR W FM IWD-ONTONAGON WITH DOWNSLOPING S WIND. MIXING TO H85 ON
NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS INDICATE MAX TEMPS MAY REACH 60 IN THIS AREA.
LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LK MI WL BE MUCH COOLER WITH FLOW OFF CHILLY
WATERS MAINTAINING HIER STABILITY/TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE.
AS FOR HEADLINES...SUSPECT MODEL QPF THAT WOULD INDICATE NEED FOR AN
ICE STORM WARNING IS A BIT TOO HI CONSIDERING THE STEADY EWD
MOVEMENT FCST OF THE FGEN/UPR DVGC CORE AND LINGERING LLVL DRY
AIR...SO ADVY SHOULD COVER THE FRZG PCPN POTENTIAL WITH ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED ABOUT 0.10 INCH. RECENT WARM SOILS
ALSO WL TEND TO LIMIT ICE ACCUM POTENTIAL. TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE
HEADLINE A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN INTO THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES. ALSO EXPANDED THE FZRA HEADLINE TO THE E EXCEPT
FOR MNM COUNTY...WHICH WL BE FARTHEST S OF THE SHARPER DYNAMICS AND
PROBABLY SEE LESS PCPN/ICING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
995MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AT 00Z AND
WILL SLIDE E ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ON TUES NIGHT. BULK OF INITIAL PCPN
WILL HAVE EXITED THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAIN
AREA OF PCPN THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OVER NE LK SUPERIOR...BUT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF UPPER MI THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE
PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN...DUE TO THE LOW LLVL WARM AIR SURGING N
THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS COLD AIR ARRIVES OVER
THE WEST COULD SEE THE RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW OVER THE FAR WEST NEAR
DAYBREAK. WITH THE LLVL WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FOLLOWED A
NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE ON TUES NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...VALUES REACHING THE MID-UPPER 40S.
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED MORNING AND LEAD TO
FALLING H850 TEMPS AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NNW. WITH H850 TEMPS
FALLING FROM 1-2C AT 12Z WED TO -4 TO -6C BY 00Z THURS SHOULD SEE
LK ENHANCED SHOWERS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE PRESENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
PEAKED THE POPS OVER THE WEST DURING THAT TIME FRAME...THEN
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE DAY AS DRY AIR STARTS TO ERRODE THE PCPN
FROM THE NW.
PCPN TYPE IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WED. NAM SHOWING CLOUD TOP IS
AROUND -8 TO -10C SO PCPN START AS SNOW IN THE CLOUDS...BUT GFS IS
WARMER WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS AROUND -5C AND MAINLY RAIN. HAVE
FOLLOWED A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A THE PCPN STARTING AT
SNOW. THE LLVL WARM LAYER WILL BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE FACTOR...AS
IT WILL TRY TO MELT THE PCPN BEFORE IT HITS THE SFC. USED A
COMBINATION OF SFC TEMPS AND WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL ON WED...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING THE SNOW
FIRST AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM N TO S THROUGH
THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING BUT OVERALL PCPN SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
THEN. NON DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AGAIN ON WED...HIGHS IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTN THEN FALLING.
LK ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTN/EVENING...AS DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVE WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BUT H900 MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. WITH H900 TEMPS AROUND
-6.5C...SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT LK INSTABILITY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING
AS WINDS VEER TO THE NE ON WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. WILL TRY
TO HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...AS
THEY HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE SIMILAR FEATURE YESTERDAY. ONCE
THE LLVL MOISTURE DEPARTS OR IS MIXED OUT THURS MORNING...LOOKS TO
BE A NICE DAY ON THURS WITH THE AREA UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
COULD SEE THURS BEING VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND TRYING TO PULL DRIER AIR INTO THE
ERN CWA. WILL LOWER DEWPOINT VALUES 5-7 DEGREES FROM THE GOING
MID 20S OVER THE EAST...AS MODEL MIXED TD VALUES INDICATE SINGLE
DIGIT VALUES. MAY NEED TO DROP FURTHER IF TREND CONTINUES.
EXTENDED /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRI...TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE. 00-12Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF DIFFERING ON THE THIS SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES...SO HAVE CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WRN
CWA IN THE MORNING AND THEN EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS WHILE HEADING E IN THE AFTN.
WEAK UPPER AND SFC RIDGING PUSHES IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD
TO A DRY PERIOD...BEFORE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND.
00-12Z ECMWF/GEM/GFS/UKMET RUNS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS
WAVE...IN TIMING/LOCATION/STRENGTH. CONSENSUS IDEA IS THAT IT WILL
PUSH ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER IN THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI
NIGHT...THEN SLIDE JUST N OF LK SUPERIOR ON SAT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE AREA...BUT THE GEM IS THE FARTHEST
S AND STRONGER WITH THE LOW CENTER AND PUSHES IT ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE E ON SAT NIGHT...LEADING TO WEAK RIDGING AGAIN
ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT BEFORE NEXT WAVE SLIDES IN ON MON. OUT OF THE
THREE WAVES IN THE EXTENDED...THE MONDAY FEATURE LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST POTENT AND AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NCNTRL U.S. WILL MENTION
CHANCES ON MON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
GRADUAL WARMING HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST THIS EVNG AS VERY DRY AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES IN ONTARIO DOMINATES. THICKER MID CLDS/SOME
MIXED PCPN IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT WL ARRIVE TNGT...BUT LINGERING
LLVL DRY AIR WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIG/VSBY. THIS LLVL
DRY AIR WL LIKELY CAUSE SOME -FZRA...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE UPSLOPE
SSE WIND WL MAINTAIN LOWER TEMPS LONGER. AS THE LLVL S WIND
INTENSIFIES TNGT AHEAD OF THE APRCHG WARM FNT...LLWS IS LIKELY TO
IMPACT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX TO THE SFC ON
TUE FOLLOWING SOME LLVL WARMING/DESTABILIZATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BETWEEN A DEEPENING LO PRES SYSTEM MOVING E FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND RETREATING HI PRES IN SE CANADA...EXPECT INCREASING SSE WINDS TO
REACH GALE FORCE AND UP TO 40 KTS ON TUE OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FAVORED FOR STRONGER S WINDS DESPITE HI STABILITY OVER THE
RELATIVELY CHILLY LAKE WATERS.
AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUES NIGHT AND EXITS TO
THE E ON WED...WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND GUST TO 30KTS TUES
NIGHT. MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
FROM REACHING THE SFC...SO DON/T THINK WE WILL SEE ANY GALES. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN WED AFTN AND NIGHT WILL DIMINISH THE
WINDS BELOW 20KTS WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING THROUGH THURS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...BUT THE ESE WINDS
SHOULD STAY BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10
AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ004-005-010-011-084.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-
007-013-014-085.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-
249-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ250-251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION..
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING FEATURE OF INTEREST...
SHORTWAVE TROF...CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MODELS IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS WAVE WILL LIFT QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ATTENDANT SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN WY WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHT FALLS DROP 16DAM. INCOMING FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE THUNDER SOMETIME
AFTER 06Z. HIRES WRF AND RUC13 ARE ADVERTISING MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH DECENT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BNDRY/SFC TROF WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. ON TUESDAY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...
PARTICULARLY NORTH. FIRE WEATHER ISSUE COMING TO PLAY THEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS COMBINATION OF WIND AND MIXING DRIVES DEW POINTS/RH
DOWN CLOSE TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. FOCUS FOR THUNDER THEN
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES/INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ALONG THE
NEB/KS BORDER...THEN RE-ORIENTS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CWA. AS FOR DAY 4-7...AT THIS POINT NOT INCLINED TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT GFS/ECM
DIFFERENCES PER LATEST RUN. OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING LIKE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HOVERING AROUND 20 DEG ABOVE NORM HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. INITIALLY...WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 150-170 DEGREES SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 28KTS...
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 38KTS. SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTS AT KLNK/KOMA BY
ABOUT 27/00Z. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ALSO BRING A WIND
SHIFT...ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AS
WELL. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE AT KLNK/KOMA...IN THE 07Z-11Z
PERIOD. WINDS BECOME WEST AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY 27/15Z.
DEWALD
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-053-066-067-078-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-033-034-
043>045-050>053-065-066-078.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
016>018-030>032-042.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. MAIN CONCERNS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. INITIALLY...WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 150-170 DEGREES SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 28KTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 38KTS. SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTS AT KLNK/KOMA BY
ABOUT 27/00Z. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ALSO BRING A WIND
SHIFT...ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AS
WELL. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE AT KLNK/KOMA...IN THE 07Z-11Z
PERIOD. WINDS BECOME WEST AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BY 27/15Z.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING IN WESTERN IOWA. ALSO EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ONE MORE
TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER EAST...INTO THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA METRO
AREAS AS THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE JUST ON THE EDGE OF THE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS.
DEWALD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AS
SHOWERS FINALLY HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM AROUND BLAIR TO
PLATTSMOUTH TO NEBRASKA CITY. SO FAR...NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED...BUT STILL THINK A FEW STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE...AND KEPT
ISOLATED WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
MAYES
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS IS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS PROGGED TO TAKE A
TRACK NEWD TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
TUE. AHEAD OF THE STRONG SYSTEM LOW LEVEL WAA IS CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS WITH THE
MOISTURE ATTM...AND THUS A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDC
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC THIS MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AROUND 850
MB AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CIN HOLDING BACK THE CONVECTION.
WE FEEL THIS TREND WILL CONT TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS B/W 12-15Z OVER THE CNTRL AND SERN CWA FOR ANYTHING
ISO THAT MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE FA. WINDS AT 925 (850) MB INCREASE TO 40 (55) KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOME OF
THIS SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE SURFACE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT MIXING THOUGH...AND WE WOULD FEEL BETTER WITH A DUE SOUTH OR
SW WIND...SO A WIND ADVRY IS NO SLAM DUNK...BUT WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING TO 925 MB WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SITES MEET
CRITERIA THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG HOURS. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY.
THE DRY LINE STILL LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE WRN HI PLAINS TODAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. SOME POSITIVE CAPE
IS INDICATED NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT CIN IS SIGNIFICANT AND WITH
MUCH OF THE FORCING GOING INTO SODAK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NEB AREA LOOKS PRETTY LOW...AND ESPECIALLY ANYTHING THAT WOULD
WORK INTO OUR FA. THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SCHC FOR THIS EVNG IN
THE NW. A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACTUALLY COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ERN FA AS BETTER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE
ADVANCING PAC CDFNT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONT SOME
CHC POPS IN THE E AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY TUES MRNG WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
EXPECTED FOR TUE/WED.
THE SURFACE FNT STILL LOOKS TO HANG UP OVER MO/KS ON TUE/WED AND
THIS WILL START TO RETREAT NWD WED NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THU
(ALTHOUGH I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO
NEB). AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHRTWV PROGGED FOR
THU NIGHT SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY WORK AROUND THE FNT AND INTO
CNTRL NEB BY LATE THU WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THU...THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE PAST FRI.
BOUSTEAD
FIRE WEATHER...
IN THE POST FRONT AIRMASS ON TUES THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OR HIGHER WILL
LEAD TO DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY IN THE
CNTRL AND WRN CWA. DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES
WITH THE MIXING ON TUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 70S. THIS WILL CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF RH BELOW 20
PERCENT DURING THE AFTN ON TUES. WITH STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SD...SFC WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED ABOVE 15 KT WITH
GUSTS WELL OVER 25 KT. THIS ALL SHOULD COMBINED FOR A DANGEROUS
FIRE WX DAY...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP NICELY AROUND
THE AREA...AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUES FOR
A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.
BOUSTEAD/MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>067-078-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-033-034-
043>045-050>053-065-066-078.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
016>018-030>032-042.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 653 PM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. EXPECTING THE CLOUDS
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING...AND WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...AS TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM EDT MONDAY...BIG PICTURE SHOWS
DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH RIBBON OF
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BUILDING INTO OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1032MB HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA....WITH SFC
DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BLW ZERO THIS AFTN. THIS AIRMASS
WL BE ACRS OUR FA ON TUES...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FCST
CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE TEMPS...FOLLOWED BY DWPTS/RH PARAMETERS ON
TUES...ALONG WITH SFC WINDS. UPSTREAM MINS LAST NIGHT SHOW MANY
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A FEW BLW ZERO READINGS SOUTH OF
HUDSON BAY...ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TEMPS -20C. GIVEN SOME GRADIENT
ACRS OUR CWA....LIMITED SNOW PACK...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB
TEMPS...WL MENTION LOWS FROM 0F AT SLK/MTNS TO 5 TO 10F
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT TO 10 TO 15F CPV/SLV. RUC13 AND NAM12 RH
PROFILES STILL SHOW SOME 975MB TO 800MB RH ACRS THE NEK/NORTHERN
VT MTNS THRU 03Z...THEREFORE WL TRY TO SHOW SOME CLOUDS...BUT
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL MTN...DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH TWD MORNING.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY AT 12Z WL
SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NY BY 15Z AND INTO THE CPV BY 18Z TUES...WITH A
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BTWN 15
AND 25 MPH THRU NOON...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...BUT
DECREASING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS DURING THE AFTN HRS TO 5 TO 15 MPH.
AT VSF...SOUNDING SHOWS MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNTS...THRU
16Z...HELPING TO PRODUCE SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...DURING THE
MORNING HRS. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TO 900MB ON TUES
AFTN...WHICH WL TRANSFER SOME VERY DRY AIR TO THE SFC. UPSTREAM OBS
UNDER SFC HIGH PRES SHOWS DWPTS BTWN -9F AND +5F...COMBINED WITH
ANTICIPATED HIGHS IN THE 30S ON TUES...RESULTS IN MIN RH VALUES BTWN
10% AND 18%...WITH LOWEST VALUES ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY ZNS ON
TUES AFTN. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN WL DEVELOP
ACRS THE NE CONUS...WITH CHANGEABLE WX ANTICIPATED. ON TUES
NIGHT...COMBINATION OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLW AND DEVELOPING TIGHT
SW TO NE THERMAL GRADIENT WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT LOW TEMP FCST.
GIVEN...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SFC DWPTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...FEEL TEMPS WL QUICKLY DROP IN THE EARLY HRS...THEN
INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT AS WINDS/CLOUDS INCREASE. THINKING LOWS WL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10F NEK TO 20 TO 25F SLV/CPV. GFS/NAM ARE HANDLING
MOISTURE/LIFT PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH WAA DIFFERENTLY AND THE
ACCOMPANYING QPF. NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF FIELDS ACRS
OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA...WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25"...WHILE GFS IS
A TRACK TO 0.10". GIVEN...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF 5H
VORT AND WAA LIFT...AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW...WL TREND TWD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. WL MENTION CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS
ACRS NNY INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS AFT 06Z WEDS...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE (TRACE TO 1"). INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AS 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE BLW 540
AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE BTWN -2C AND -4C. BEST 850 TO 500MB RH
AND 700 TO 500MB OMEGA LIFTS FROM SW TO NW ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 06Z
AND 15Z WEDS. AFTER 15Z...BEST MOISTURE/LIFT IS ACRS OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN ZNS...AS WARM ADVECTS INTO OUR CWA. LOCAL 4KM AND NAM
SHOWS SOME LLVL DAMMING OF COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY NEK AND EXTREME
NORTHERN SLV ON WEDS...CREATING A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT.
WITH CLRING SKIES PARTS OF THE SLV FROM GOUVERNEUR TO
POTSDAM/CANTON WL WARM INTO THE L60S...WHILE NEAR MSS COULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. ELSEWHERE...GIVEN SHARP 925MB THERMAL
GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...TEMPS WL BE TRICKY...WL MENTION L/M50S CPV
TO L/M40S NEK/MTNS OF VT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 354 PM EDT MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
DISAGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEGINS TO EXIT
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. MAINTAINED CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG
EASTERN-FACING SLOPES WHERE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER.
NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE -8 TO -10C RANGE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY REACH INTO THE 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN TIMING REGARDING A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. 12Z GFS TRACKS THE LOW FURTHER TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY THAN THE 12Z ECMWF...AND IS ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAVE OPTED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM CONTINUITY...SO HAVE
KEPT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED...THEN TAPER OFF AND BE
SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. VFR CEILINGS EXIST THROUGH
00Z WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
BRIEF IFR INTERVALS POSSIBLE. RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LIGHT N-NW WINDS
AND A RETURN TO DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE ON
TUESDAY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT COLD...BUT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE
FAIR. MIXING DEVELOPS EARLY AND WITH THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVING DOWN OVER US...THE IDEA OF SHARPLY FALLING
HUMIDITIES LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS A GOOD BET. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE 12 TO 18
PERCENT RANGE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TAPER OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH
WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT. FULL SUN WILL HELP DRY THE
FINE FUELS...WHICH GOT A REPRIEVE FROM THE LIGHT SNOW/CLOUD COVER
ON MONDAY. FORESTRY PERSONNEL INDICATE ABNORMALLY DRY FUELS
OVERALL...THUS THE SITUATION WILL BE EXAMINED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLY
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON
FIRE WEATHER...EVENSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
354 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...BIG PICTURE SHOWS DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH RIBBON OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BUILDING
INTO OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1032MB HIGH PRES
BUILDING INTO OUR CWA....WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BLW ZERO THIS AFTN. THIS AIRMASS WL BE ACRS OUR FA ON
TUES...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE
TEMPS...FOLLOWED BY DWPTS/RH PARAMETERS ON TUES...ALONG WITH SFC
WINDS. UPSTREAM MINS LAST NIGHT SHOW MANY TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH A FEW BLW ZERO READINGS SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY...ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TEMPS -20C. GIVEN SOME GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA....LIMITED SNOW PACK...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB
TEMPS...WL MENTION LOWS FROM 0F AT SLK/MTNS TO 5 TO 10F
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT TO 10 TO 15F CPV/SLV. RUC13 AND NAM12 RH
PROFILES STILL SHOW SOME 975MB TO 800MB RH ACRS THE NEK/NORTHERN
VT MTNS THRU 03Z...THEREFORE WL TRY TO SHOW SOME CLOUDS...BUT
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL MTN...DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH TWD MORNING.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY AT 12Z WL
SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NY BY 15Z AND INTO THE CPV BY 18Z TUES...WITH A
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BTWN 15
AND 25 MPH THRU NOON...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...BUT
DECREASING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS DURING THE AFTN HRS TO 5 TO 15 MPH.
AT VSF...SOUNDING SHOWS MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNTS...THRU
16Z...HELPING TO PRODUCE SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...DURING THE
MORNING HRS. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TO 900MB ON TUES
AFTN...WHICH WL TRANSFER SOME VERY DRY AIR TO THE SFC. UPSTREAM OBS
UNDER SFC HIGH PRES SHOWS DWPTS BTWN -9F AND +5F...COMBINED WITH
ANTICIPATED HIGHS IN THE 30S ON TUES...RESULTS IN MIN RH VALUES BTWN
10% AND 18%...WITH LOWEST VALUES ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY ZNS ON
TUES AFTN. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN WL DEVELOP
ACRS THE NE CONUS...WITH CHANGEABLE WX ANTICIPATED. ON TUES
NIGHT...COMBINATION OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLW AND DEVELOPING TIGHT
SW TO NE THERMAL GRADIENT WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT LOW TEMP FCST.
GIVEN...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SFC DWPTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...FEEL TEMPS WL QUICKLY DROP IN THE EARLY HRS...THEN
INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT AS WINDS/CLOUDS INCREASE. THINKING LOWS WL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10F NEK TO 20 TO 25F SLV/CPV. GFS/NAM ARE HANDLING
MOISTURE/LIFT PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH WAA DIFFERENTLY AND THE
ACCOMPANYING QPF. NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF FIELDS ACRS
OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA...WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25"...WHILE GFS IS
A TRACK TO 0.10". GIVEN...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF 5H
VORT AND WAA LIFT...AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW...WL TREND TWD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. WL MENTION CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS
ACRS NNY INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS AFT 06Z WEDS...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE (TRACE TO 1"). INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AS 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE BLW 540
AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE BTWN -2C AND -4C. BEST 850 TO 500MB RH
AND 700 TO 500MB OMEGA LIFTS FROM SW TO NW ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 06Z
AND 15Z WEDS. AFTER 15Z...BEST MOISTURE/LIFT IS ACRS OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN ZNS...AS WARM ADVECTS INTO OUR CWA. LOCAL 4KM AND NAM
SHOWS SOME LLVL DAMMING OF COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY NEK AND EXTREME
NORTHERN SLV ON WEDS...CREATING A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT.
WITH CLRING SKIES PARTS OF THE SLV FROM GOUVERNEUR TO
POTSDAM/CANTON WL WARM INTO THE L60S...WHILE NEAR MSS COULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. ELSEWHERE...GIVEN SHARP 925MB THERMAL
GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...TEMPS WL BE TRICKY...WL MENTION L/M50S CPV
TO L/M40S NEK/MTNS OF VT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 354 PM EDT MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
DISAGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEGINS TO EXIT
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. MAINTAINED CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG
EASTERN-FACING SLOPES WHERE UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER.
NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE -8 TO -10C RANGE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY REACH INTO THE 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN TIMING REGARDING A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. 12Z GFS TRACKS THE LOW FURTHER TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY THAN THE 12Z ECMWF...AND IS ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAVE OPTED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM CONTINUITY...SO HAVE
KEPT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED...THEN TAPER OFF AND BE
SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. VFR CEILINGS EXIST THROUGH
00Z WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
BRIEF IFR INTERVALS POSSIBLE. RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LIGHT N-NW WINDS
AND A RETURN TO DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE ON
TUESDAY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT COLD...BUT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE
FAIR. MIXING DEVELOPS EARLY AND WITH THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVING DOWN OVER US...THE IDEA OF SHARPLY FALLING
HUMIDITIES LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS A GOOD BET. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE 12 TO 18
PERCENT RANGE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TAPER OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH
WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT. FULL SUN WILL HELP DRY THE
FINE FUELS...WHICH GOT A REPRIEVE FROM THE LIGHT SNOW/CLOUD COVER
ON MONDAY. FORESTRY PERSONNEL INDICATE ABNORMALLY DRY FUELS
OVERALL...THUS THE SITUATION WILL BE EXAMINED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLY
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...BIG PICTURE SHOWS DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH RIBBON OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BUILDING
INTO OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1032MB HIGH PRES
BUILDING INTO OUR CWA....WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BLW ZERO THIS AFTN. THIS AIRMASS WL BE ACRS OUR FA ON
TUES...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE
TEMPS...FOLLOWED BY DWPTS/RH PARAMETERS ON TUES...ALONG WITH SFC
WINDS. UPSTREAM MINS LAST NIGHT SHOW MANY TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH A FEW BLW ZERO READINGS SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY...ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TEMPS -20C. GIVEN SOME GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA....LIMITED SNOW PACK...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB
TEMPS...WL MENTION LOWS FROM 0F AT SLK/MTNS TO 5 TO 10F
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT TO 10 TO 15F CPV/SLV. RUC13 AND NAM12 RH
PROFILES STILL SHOW SOME 975MB TO 800MB RH ACRS THE NEK/NORTHERN
VT MTNS THRU 03Z...THEREFORE WL TRY TO SHOW SOME CLOUDS...BUT
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL MTN...DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH TWD MORNING.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY AT 12Z WL
SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NY BY 15Z AND INTO THE CPV BY 18Z TUES...WITH A
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BTWN 15
AND 25 MPH THRU NOON...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...BUT
DECREASING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS DURING THE AFTN HRS TO 5 TO 15 MPH.
AT VSF...SOUNDING SHOWS MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNTS...THRU
16Z...HELPING TO PRODUCE SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...DURING THE
MORNING HRS. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TO 900MB ON TUES
AFTN...WHICH WL TRANSFER SOME VERY DRY AIR TO THE SFC. UPSTREAM OBS
UNDER SFC HIGH PRES SHOWS DWPTS BTWN -9F AND +5F...COMBINED WITH
ANTICIPATED HIGHS IN THE 30S ON TUES...RESULTS IN MIN RH VALUES BTWN
10% AND 18%...WITH LOWEST VALUES ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN NY ZNS ON
TUES AFTN. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN WL DEVELOP
ACRS THE NE CONUS...WITH CHANGEABLE WX ANTICIPATED. ON TUES
NIGHT...COMBINATION OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLW AND DEVELOPING TIGHT
SW TO NE THERMAL GRADIENT WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT LOW TEMP FCST.
GIVEN...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SFC DWPTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...FEEL TEMPS WL QUICKLY DROP IN THE EARLY HRS...THEN
INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT AS WINDS/CLOUDS INCREASE. THINKING LOWS WL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10F NEK TO 20 TO 25F SLV/CPV. GFS/NAM ARE HANDLING
MOISTURE/LIFT PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH WAA DIFFERENTLY AND THE
ACCOMPANYING QPF. NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF FIELDS ACRS
OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA...WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25"...WHILE GFS IS
A TRACK TO 0.10". GIVEN...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF 5H
VORT AND WAA LIFT...AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW...WL TREND TWD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. WL MENTION CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS
ACRS NNY INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS AFT 06Z WEDS...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE (TRACE TO 1"). INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AS 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE BLW 540
AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE BTWN -2C AND -4C. BEST 850 TO 500MB RH
AND 700 TO 500MB OMEGA LIFTS FROM SW TO NW ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 06Z
AND 15Z WEDS. AFTER 15Z...BEST MOISTURE/LIFT IS ACRS OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN ZNS...AS WARM ADVECTS INTO OUR CWA. LOCAL 4KM AND NAM
SHOWS SOME LLVL DAMMING OF COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY NEK AND EXTREME
NORTHERN SLV ON WEDS...CREATING A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT.
WITH CLRING SKIES PARTS OF THE SLV FROM GOUVERNEUR TO
POTSDAM/CANTON WL WARM INTO THE L60S...WHILE NEAR MSS COULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F. ELSEWHERE...GIVEN SHARP 925MB THERMAL
GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...TEMPS WL BE TRICKY...WL MENTION L/M50S CPV
TO L/M40S NEK/MTNS OF VT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT MONDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED FCST. WEAK SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM CENTRAL NY TO WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH TROUGH AXIS POSITIVELY TILTED IN 00Z
GFS AND MOVING EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL CARRY
OVC SKIES, POPS 40-60 PERCENT, AND QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.25" FOR
WED NIGHT. WEAK SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
RAIN OR MTN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY. GENERALLY TRENDING DRIER BY
THURSDAY AFTN WITH PREVAILING N-NW FLOW AND SFC RIDGE BEGINNING TO
BUILD EWD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION. PATTERN BECOMES FAIRLY
STAGNANT WITH DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WILL BE GOING WITH A DRY FCST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO CROSS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ATTM FOR
THIS FEATURE GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NLY WINDS
INFLUENCED BY DOWNSTREAM DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. TEMPS THEN TRENDING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED...THEN TAPER OFF AND BE
SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. VFR CEILINGS EXIST THROUGH
00Z WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
BRIEF IFR INTERVALS POSSIBLE. RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LIGHT N-NW WINDS
AND A RETURN TO DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE ON
TUESDAY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT COLD...BUT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE
FAIR. MIXING DEVELOPS EARLY AND WITH THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVING DOWN OVER US...THE IDEA OF SHARPLY FALLING
HUMIDITIES LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS A GOOD BET. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE 12 TO 18
PERCENT RANGE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND THEN TAPER OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH
WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT. FULL SUN WILL HELP DRY THE
FINE FUELS...WHICH GOT A REPRIEVE FROM THE LIGHT SNOW/CLOUD COVER
ON MONDAY. FORESTRY PERSONNEL INDICATE ABNORMALLY DRY FUELS
OVERALL...THUS THE SITUATION WILL BE EXAMINED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLY
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON
FIRE WEATHER...EVENSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
300 PM MDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL WY WITH
WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT ALONG I-90 AND COLD FRONT DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHEAST CO. 7MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF LOW AS SHORTWAVE IS
RAPIDLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WY. HIGHLY ELEVATED RETURNS NOW
SHOWING UP AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND ON NOSE OF 100KT JET STREAK.
CONCERN THIS FORECAST IS DISPOSITION OF THESE STRONG WAVE.
12Z/18Z GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. IT BRINGS SHORTWAVE OUT
NEGATIVELY-TILTED REACHING EASTERN ND BY 12Z TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND RACES
INTO EASTERN ND BY 12Z TUESDAY. COLD FRONT BEHIND LOW RACES EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...PLOWING THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z.
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...LOW 50S TD/S POOLING GIVING AROUND 1KJ/KG
MLCAPE...BUT MLCIN FROM 50-100J/KG JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL BE A TOUGH CAP TO BREAK FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS...BUT
LATEST HRRR/LOCAL WRF MODEL SUGGESTS AS BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
OVERTAKES COLD FRONT JUST NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW...WE SHOULD SEE
A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOP. DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM...AND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS GIVEN
0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHING 20-30M/S. STORMS WOULD MOVE AROUND 45KTS
TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL WATCH MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENT FOR SIGNS OF
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES
FORECAST OF 7-11MB BEHIND INITIAL COLD FRONT. COMBINED WITH 850MB
WINDS INCREASING TO 55KTS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...IT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE
SURFACE OVER NORTHEAST WY/THE BLACK HILLS/SOUTHWEST SD EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN OVER NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD MID-
EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND COLD FRONT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND STRONG
DRYING AND LINKAGE THROUGH 700MB. LATEST RUC SHOWING SYSTEM A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT HEADLINES IN PLACE
WILL ACCOUNT FOR THAT SCENARIO. AS LOW MOVES INTO ND LATER THIS
EVENING...SECONDARY PRESSURE RISE SURGE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST
WY/NORTHWEST SD KEEPING WINDS GOING THERE. WINDS SPEEDS SOUTH OF
I-90 SHOULD DECREASE SOME AFTER 06Z.
TUESDAY...TIGHT GRADIENT WITH 50KT 850MB NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP
HIGH WINDS GOING OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY
FURTHER SOUTH ON THE SD PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.
EXTENDED...A MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COOL
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THURSDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY BEING SATURDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LIKELY TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF UPDATE
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING VERY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BRINGING VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WHILE
DECREASING. HOWEVER THE VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15
PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-
RAPID CITY-SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BADLANDS AREA-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS-
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR BADLANDS
AREA-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS-SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA-
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
BENNETT-JACKSON.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR FALL RIVER.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
BUTTE-HAAKON-HARDING-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO
PLAINS-PERKINS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYOMING BLACK HILLS.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CROOK AND WESTON COUNTIES-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WYOMING BLACK HILLS.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CROOK AND WESTON COUNTIES-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WYOMING BLACK HILLS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WESTON.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
NORTHEASTERN CROOK.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM....CALDERON
AVIATION...CALDERON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1244 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WINDS WILL CREATE SOME
PROBLEMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 35 MPH
WHILE WEST WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL RUN ABOUT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED. /08
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MESSY FORECAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH WIND...FIRE WEATHER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ALL CONCERNS. TO
START...ADDED THE REMAINING FEW COUNTIES IN NW IA TO THE WIND
ADVISORY WITH SLB ALREADY SUSTAINED AT 30 MPH. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE VERY WINDY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO SURGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE HOWEVER SO NOT EXPECTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO GET OUT OF HAND. WHAT WE HAVE SEEMS REASONABLE BUT
MAY NEED TO CUT BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN PLACES.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM
LBF AND UNR ARE VERY DRY AND VERY WARM. WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO
GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND THE LATEST NAM GIVES
US NOTHING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HRRR ALSO LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. SO...WILL MAINTAIN SOME 20 TO 30 POPS AND WITH THE
SHEAR STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT BUT STARTING TO
LOOK DIFFICULT. WILL NEED TO WATCH CENTRAL SD LATER TODAY FOR
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.
WILL GO AHEAD EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL AS ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE FOR THE
SD ZONES AND NW IA ZONES WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR SW
MN WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR SW MN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH. /08
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT/
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY
WILL BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
CUT OFF AS IT EMERGES IN THE WESTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
STRONG THETA E ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS TRIGGERING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT THESE STORMS
TO PERSIST IN THIS AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A MINOR WAVE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON EXPANDING THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/SHEAR AND
MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL
BE THE VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. ILL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CAP WEAKENS A BIT
THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME STORMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE
SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED STORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALSO OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SURFACE WINDS WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING AND AN STRONG LLJ IN PLACE. WHILE THE
COPIOUS CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS DO NOT PRESENT THE BEST MIXING
POTENTIAL...DO THINK SOME BORDERLINE ADVISORY SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
BE ATTAINABLE ACROSS OUR SD...MN...NE AND NORTHERN IA ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE TIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION RUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY SITUATION IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE
NORTH. WITH TODAYS HEADLINE IN PLACE...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING FOR
TUESDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMALS. BY
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HANDLING OF RIDGE AND TROUGH FEATURES AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. FOLLOWED THE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR
THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ300.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
020>022-031-032.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ301.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
090-097-098.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ900.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ249.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ255>258.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-050-052>071.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1110 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.DISCUSSION...
MESSY FORECAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH WIND...FIRE WEATHER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ALL CONCERNS. TO
START...ADDED THE REMAINING FEW COUNTIES IN NW IA TO THE WIND
ADVISORY WITH SLB ALREADY SUSTAINED AT 30 MPH. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE VERY WINDY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO SURGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE HOWEVER SO NOT EXPECTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO GET OUT OF HAND. WHAT WE HAVE SEEMS REASONABLE BUT
MAY NEED TO CUT BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN PLACES.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM
LBF AND UNR ARE VERY DRY AND VERY WARM. WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO
GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND THE LATEST NAM GIVES
US NOTHING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HRRR ALSO LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. SO...WILL MAINTAIN SOME 20 TO 30 POPS AND WITH THE
SHEAR STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT BUT STARTING TO
LOOK DIFFICULT. WILL NEED TO WATCH CENTRAL SD LATER TODAY FOR
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.
WILL GO AHEAD EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL AS ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE FOR THE
SD ZONES AND NW IA ZONES WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR SW
MN WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR SW MN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH. /08
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT/
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY
WILL BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
CUT OFF AS IT EMERGES IN THE WESTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
STRONG THETA E ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS TRIGGERING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT THESE STORMS
TO PERSIST IN THIS AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A MINOR WAVE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON EXPANDING THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/SHEAR AND
MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL
BE THE VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. ILL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CAP WEAKENS A BIT
THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME STORMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST IN THE EVENING AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE
SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED STORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALSO OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SURFACE WINDS WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING AND AN STRONG LLJ IN PLACE. WHILE THE
COPIOUS CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS DO NOT PRESENT THE BEST MIXING
POTENTIAL...DO THINK SOME BORDERLINE ADVISORY SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
BE ATTAINABLE ACROSS OUR SD...MN...NE AND NORTHERN IA ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE TIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION RUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY SITUATION IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE
NORTH. WITH TODAYS HEADLINE IN PLACE...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING FOR
TUESDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMALS. BY
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. RIDGING
BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HANDLING OF RIDGE AND TROUGH FEATURES AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. FOLLOWED THE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR
THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FORMING IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND LIFTING NORTH WITH TIME. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE AND
LOW CONFIDENCE...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAFS. STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT.
ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS LOOK HOPELESSLY CAPPED...SO ONLY INCLUDED CB
MENTION AT KHON TERMINAL FOR NOW.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ013-014.
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ038>040-050-052>071.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
259 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND ALONG THE
850MB FRONT...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL OUT OF A 9KFT DECK OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HARD TO SAY IF ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
ARE REACHING THE GROUND OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THOUGH RUC
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE DRY WEDGE CENTERED AROUND 850MB THAT WOULD
INDICATE MOSTLY VIRGA. FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AS THIS LLJ AND 850MB
WARM FRONT MOVE NE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES AND PRECIP
TYPE REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT NO MATTER WHICH WAY YOU SLICE
IT. STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AN ALREADY POTENT LLJ
WILL CRANK UP TO 60-70KTS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING. AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL RAMP UP ON THE 300K SURFACE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
THINK WE WILL SEE A WARM AIR ADVECTION WING DEVELOP IN THIS AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. ADMITTEDLY SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS PRECIP...DUE TO THE VERY DRY AND SHALLOW POLAR AIRMASS THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE PRECIP
ARRIVAL. THIS PRECIP SHOULD THEN LIFT NE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THE LLJ VEERS. BUT THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND
PTYPE. THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD EAST
TONIGHT WHICH MODELS PROJECT CREATES A LARGE WARM NOSE IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE CENTERED AROUND 800MB. WITH TEMPS IN THIS WARM NOSE
INCREASING TO 6-7C...PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL LIQUID IN THIS LAYER
OVERNIGHT. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL REVOLVE AROUND SURFACE TEMPS AS THE
SHALLOW POLAR AIRMASS LINGERS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
40S. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IS ALSO QUITE DRY RESULTING IN WET BULB
TEMPS MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. PRECIP WILL BE TRANSIENT...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE
FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. IF TEMPS ONLY FALL TO 31 OR 32
DEGREES...ANY FREEZING RAIN MAY NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT DUE TO WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPS AND
IMPACTS...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEADLINES...THOUGH POTENTIAL WILL BE
THERE FOR ONE. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
ELEVATED CAPES REACHING OVER 200 J/KG.
TUESDAY...850MB WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING
WILL ARRIVE ABOVE 700MB. PROGGED SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST
BETWEEN 900-700MB...SO THINKING MAYBE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ONCE THE FGEN INDUCED PRECIP EXITS. UPPER LEVEL FRONT TIED TO THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE HEADWAY ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE AREA WILL
REMAIN CAPPED FOR CONVECTION...BOTH ELEVATED AND AT THE SURFACE.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT STILL CAN ONLY FIND CAPPING. SO IN THE END...NOT
EXPECTING THAT MUCH TO HAPPEN TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. THEN A CANADIAN HIGH DROPS DOWN TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND BRINGS DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO OUR AREA. A
FROST OR FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BAY AND
LAKE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD NORMALLY NOT BE MENTIONED AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT THE RECORD WARMTH OF MARCH HAS CAUSED MANY
FRUIT TREES TO BLOSSOM AND ORCHARD OWNERS HAVE REQUESTED THAT WE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND JET ENERGY APPROACHES FROM
THE PLAINS STATES. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND PALM SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS HAVE BIG DIFFERENCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER MUCH OF THE TIME.
BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE TO RIDGING OVER
ALASKA AND THE POSSIBLE ESTABLISHMENT OF A POLAR VORTEX OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST
WHILE A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES.
PRECIP TYPE IS UNCERTAIN...MAINLY DUE TO THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS COOLING TAKES PLACE TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS
PROJECT TEMPS FALLING TO JUST BELOW FREEZING...THOUGH INCOMING CLOUD
COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MODELS PREDICT. AS A
RESULT...THINK FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...THOUGH IMPACTS MAY TURN OUT TO BE MINIMAL DUE TO
SURFACE TEMPS SO CLOSE TO FREEZING. THE PRECIP WILL PULL OUT LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAVE MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.
MPC
&&
.MARINE...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LLVL FLOW
INCREASES TO 45KTS AT 950MB. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CENTERED
AROUND 800MB... HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE SHALLOW CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THE BL A LITTLE MORE MIXY THAN PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...THINK LOW END GALES ARE A
POSSIBILITY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SHOULD SEE STABILITY
BECOME A BIG FACTOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SUBSIDING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MPC/RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TONIGHT PCPN POTENTIAL
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
230 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS...STORM AND
GRADIENT RELATED...TUE/TUE NIGHT.
A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH THE 26.12Z
NAM AND GFS TAKING THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN MN BY 00Z WED. THE
SYSTEM COMES IN STACKED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...TAKING ITS
NORTH-SOUTH COLD FRONT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 18-21Z TUE...AND
THEN ACROSS EASTERN WI BY 03Z WED.
BEFORE THE HEART OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN THERE WILL BE
STRONG LOW LEVEL 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...ALONG WITH ADVECTION ON THE ISENTROPIC
SFCS. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A
60+ KT LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN MN TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUING TO POINT TO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SATURATION COULD BE A CONCERN A NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING
X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER
NORTH...WITH SATURATION CONFINED UNDER 700 MB FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS...LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND DEEPER SATURATION MAKES PCPN MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOCALLY...MOSTLY NORTH OF A WABASHA MN TO BLACK RIVER FALLS WI LINE.
HOWEVER...CURRENT 88-D IMAGERY HAS AN EXPANDING BAND OF SHOWERS
WHICH HAVE BLOSSOMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. RUC13 WOULD SLIDE THIS BAND OF PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN PCPN FOCUS THEN TURNING FARTHER
NORTH. WILL WORK PCPN CHANCES WITH THIS IN MIND
TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOT A LOT OF
FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ACCORDING TO THE NAM/GFS. SOME MUCAPE OF 250-500
J/KG WORKS INTO NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. 0-3
KM SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AT 40-45 KTS FROM THE WEST. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...INVERTED-V
SHAPE. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AND IF ANY WOULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN. EVEN PERKY SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO
ACCELERATE SOME WIND TO THE SFC...WITH 40 MPH WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.
SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN TONIGHT...STAYING THAT WAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. 60 KT WINDS
BY 2000 FT...BUT ABOVE THE INVERSION. POST THE FRONT THOUGH...MIXING
IS DEEPER AND ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WON/T BE AS
STRONG...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS EXISTS. DON/T BELIEVE A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE
ACROSS THE OPEN AND UNSHELTERED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA
TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT...BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. IN ADDITION...COLDER...BUT
SEASONABLE AIR WILL RETURN...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING HELP
TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK THU.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST LOOK LIKELY. CONSIDERING THE RECENT VERY
WARM TEMPS AND EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON...COLD DAMAGE COULD
OCCUR TO TENDER VEGETATION AND COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS. A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
230 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RETURN FLOW POST A HIGH
INTERACTING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH A LOFT TO TRIGGER AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT-FRI. BOTH MODELS THEN
FAVOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SAT. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
TIMING...POSITIONING AND STRENGTH...BUT THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME
PCPN CHANCES IN THIS TIME FRAME. A STRONGER TROUGH AND SFC COLD
FRONT COULD THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AGAIN...DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
SIMILAR. SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO MOVE IN.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
1255 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BREEZY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS IN THE 4 TO 5 KFT RANGE. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS...GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KTS AT KLSE AND UP TO 30 KTS AT
KRST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A POTENTIAL CONCERN THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SURFACE AND VEER SOUTHWEST..INCREASING TO 60 KTS AT 2 KFT. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURFACE WINDS
SPEEDS...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED THIS EVENING IF SURFACE WINDS
DROP OFF. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE TUESDAY MORNING
AS MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLAN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 34 KTS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME. PLAN ON STRONG
WEST WINDS OF 17 TO 26 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 38 KTS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1256 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
325 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH MID WEEK IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY INTO TOMORROW AND WHETHER ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS A RESULT OF THE
COMBINATION OF A FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 850-500MB AND
THE EASTERN WING OF INCREASING 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
CONVECTION IS REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
THAT FEATURES A DEW POINT DEPRESSION OF ABOUT 35C AT 830MB PER THE
26.00Z MPX SOUNDING. THE QUESTION FOR THIS MORNING IS WITH HOW
LONG THE CONVECTION WILL HOLD ON FOR. THE 26.00Z NAM CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THIS FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION DRIFTING NORTH AND
STAYING STRONG THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 26.05Z AND PREVIOUS HRRR RUNS
SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION HOLDING ON INTO THE MORNING...HAVE
KEPT SOME DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING AT MEDFORD. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING
GOING UNTIL 8AM FOR TAYLOR COUNTY.
JUST AS THIS FIRST BAND OF FORCING WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON...925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 300-310K SURFACES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA WHILE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THIS
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSE SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES
STILL LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR THIS CONVECTION HOLDING ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FEEDING
INTO THESE SHOWERS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDER OCCURRING...BUT
NOTHING VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO GET ORGANIZED AND POSE A SEVERE THREAT.
AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH...THE MAIN CHANNEL OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OR POSSIBLY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
AS THIS MOISTURE FEED SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST AS WELL AND GET TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY MID AFTERNOON. THE 26.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
0-3KM MUCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT DOES CONVECT FURTHER SOUTH IN EASTERN IOWA
WHERE THIS INSTABILITY CROSSES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
DESPITE 0-3KM WIND SHEAR BEING VERY FAVORABLE AT 40KTS...THE
PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IF THE COLD FRONT CAN PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A KICKER...A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO FORM THOUGH THE WINDOW
LOOKS VERY SMALL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A COOLER AND VERY DRY AIR MASS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM +10C
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND -2C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS
COLDER...YET SEASONAL...AIR MASS IN PLACE...LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
HAVE NOT PUT ANY FROST IN THE FORECAST YET SINCE WINDS APPEAR TO
STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FROM FORMING.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
325 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
THE 26.00Z GFS AND ECMWF GET OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW UP INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND BRING THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON IN. SOME DISCREPANCIES START
SHOWING UP ON FRIDAY AS THE 26.00Z GFS HOLDS ONTO THE
PRECIPITATION LONGER THAN THE 26.00Z ECMWF. THE 26.00Z ECMWF/GEM
BOTH BRING A MORE POTENT LOW THROUGH ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY THAN WHAT
THE 26.00Z GFS HAS. BEYOND THIS...THE GFS HOLDS UP THE TROUGH OUT
WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR NOW...HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF EACH RATHER
THAN TO GRAB ONTO ONE EXTREME OR THE OTHER WITH THE GFS BEING THE
WARM EXTREME AND THE ECMWF BEING THE COLD EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
1255 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BREEZY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS IN THE 4 TO 5 KFT RANGE. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS...GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KTS AT KLSE AND UP TO 30 KTS AT
KRST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A POTENTIAL CONCERN THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SURFACE AND VEER SOUTHWEST..INCREASING TO 60 KTS AT 2 KFT. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAF GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURFACE WINDS
SPEEDS...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED THIS EVENING IF SURFACE WINDS
DROP OFF. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE TUESDAY MORNING
AS MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLAN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 34 KTS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME. PLAN ON STRONG
WEST WINDS OF 17 TO 26 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 38 KTS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1255 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1224 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY.
ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED...WITH CONCERNS ON PCPN AND TYPE AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
OUT OF CANADA NOSING SOUTH INTO WI. FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FLOAT IN OFF LAKES. TO SOUTHWEST MID CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA...WITH FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF FGEN FORCING. FREEZE WARNING WILL
REMAIN AS IS.
FORECAST ATTENTION ON SIG SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
WESTERN TROF INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUE MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS TO MOVE EAST TODAY WITH
COLD FRONT RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AREA OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LI`S NEAR 0 SHIFTS EAST INTO REGION
TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES TO 40KTS...FOCUSED OVER NORTH THUS HIGHER POPS OVER
NORTHERN CWA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LAYER BELOW 800MB HAS TO BE
OVERCOME THIS EVENING...TRENDED POPS LOWER EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PCPN
TYPE ALSO IN QUESTION. DEPTH OF THE BELOW FREEZING LAYER ON
SOUNDINGS DEEP ENOUGH TO REFREEZE...WHILE CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS
SLEET. THOUGH CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT FZRA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS...THEN WARM TOWARD MORNING...
LIMITING ZR. WILL NOT PUT ZR IN GRIDS ATTM AND PASS CONCERNS
REGARDING IT ON TO NEXT SHIFT.
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO CWA LATE IN DAY TUE. MODELS SUGGEST
POSSIBLE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF FRONT. INSTABILITY
LIMITED WITH DEW POINTS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
INSTABILITY MAINLY FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BE A STABILIZING FACTOR AND LIMIT
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. HAVE BACKED POPS BACK DOWN INTO
SCATTERED RANGE FOR TUE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO
NORTH OF LAKE HURON BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BEEN CONTEMPLATING IF A
SMALL CHANCE WOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS THE EAST. DO THINK IF ANY
ACTIVITY DOES FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL RACE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. SOME CONCERNS
TONIGHT THAT THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING THE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.
VERY STRONG WINDS AT 925MB...COMBINED WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND 850MB COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HELP MIX SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HAVE GONE WITH BLUSTERY
WORDING FOR NOW IN THE ZONES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW GUSTS
TO OVER 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW OVER FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TONIGHT...BOTH THE GFS/WRF
INDICATING 500MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHILE THE
BOTH MODELS DO SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK TROUGH/COLD
FRONT. DID EXPAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND NOW
INCLUDES MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY...A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE BAY WITH AREAS OF
FROST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RECENT
RECORD WARMTH...THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED VERY EARLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. HAVE ADDED FROST TO THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND STILL LOOKS MUDDLED
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THEREFORE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST
WHILE A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES.
PRECIP TYPE IS UNCERTAIN...MAINLY DUE TO THE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS COOLING TAKES PLACE TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS
PROJECT TEMPS FALLING TO JUST BELOW FREEZING...THOUGH INCOMING CLOUD
COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MODELS PREDICT. AS A
RESULT...THINK FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...THOUGH IMPACTS MAY TURN OUT TO BE MINIMAL DUE TO
SURFACE TEMPS SO CLOSE TO FREEZING. THE PRECIP WILL PULL OUT LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAVE MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.
MPC
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE ALLOWED TO RUN THROUGH 15Z. WINDS
HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA...THOUGH WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP
OFF. INCREASING SOUTHEAST...SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LLVL
FLOW INCREASES TO 40KTS AT 925MB. UNDER WAA REGIME HAVE CONCERNS
THAT A STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS
DOWN...WITH GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SAME. WILL STAY WITH STRONG
SMALL CRAFT WORDING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$