Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/22/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
743 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND DISSIPATES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...JET STREAM WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BULK OF
ASSOCIATED PVA SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE ESTABLISHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY.
DENSE FOG ROLLING INTO THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ALL COASTAL AREAS ARE IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ENDING TIME AND RUC BUFKIT FOR
EXAMPLE SHOWS A MUCH LONGER DURATION FOR COASTAL SITES WITH
THICKENING OF STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST THINKING RIGHT NOW
IS THAT FOG BECOMES LESS DENSE WITH LOWER STRATUS REMAINING BY LATE
MORNING...AND DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS AN INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 950 MB. LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPS TRAP MOISTURE BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
GREATER NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND
TO VISIBILITIES DOWN TO QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
WE START TO MIX OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON ONCE INVERSION BREAKS. THIS
WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED DAYTIME WARMTH AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES.
THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST TODAY...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON WHEN EXACTLY THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SCATTER OUT. TOOK A MAV/MET BLEND BUT MADE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING WITH
LESS DIURNAL WARMING THAN FARTHER INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS INTERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SCENARIO SETS UP FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD LOWS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. FEATURES ALOFT REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME.
AGAIN A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. WITH FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY...THINK THAT FOG WILL BE KEPT AT PATCHY
COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE CITY FORMING AS A RESULT OF ADVECTION OF
LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TOWARDS THE COAST AND SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING INLAND. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A
QUICKER SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CONDITIONS. LESS REMARKABLE
INCREASE IN WARMTH FOR THE COAST WITH MARITIME INFLUENCE. HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH...MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP. THESE RELATIVELY HIGHER
WINDS WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND WITH DECENT MIXING TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO OR BREAK
THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GRIDS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS CONTINUING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
MAY BE SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON...DRIER WEATHER WILL BE WORKING BACK
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW.
MAINLY LIFR VIS AND CIG THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING AFTER 15Z. MAY SEE IFR
CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH 17Z...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
VFR FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...THINKING WE MAY SEE A REPEAT OF THIS PAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AGAIN CONFIDENCE LEVEL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING
CONDITIONS DOWN TO LIFR SO WILL KEEP IFR VIS AND CIGS FOR NOW.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KTS FOR THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AGAIN TONIGHT...ENABLING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL RESULT IN
THE DIMINISHED VIS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF IFR VIS/CIGS REMAIN.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF IFR VIS/CIGS REMAIN.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF IFR VIS/CIGS REMAIN.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF IFR VIS/CIGS REMAIN.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF IFR VIS/CIGS REMAIN.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF IFR VIS/CIGS REMAIN.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING (LOW CONFIDENCE)...THEN
VFR.
.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MARGINAL VFR CIG.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ALL THE
WATERS. WITH DOMINANT RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...SHOULD SEE SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BUT REMAIN SUB
SCA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
104>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
718 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND DISSIPATES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...JET STREAM WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BULK OF
ASSOCIATED PVA SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE ESTABLISHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY.
DENSE FOG ROLLING INTO THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ALL COASTAL AREAS ARE IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ENDING TIME AND RUC BUFKIT FOR
EXAMPLE SHOWS A MUCH LONGER DURATION FOR COASTAL SITES WITH
THICKENING OF STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST THINKING RIGHT NOW
IS THAT FOG BECOMES LESS DENSE WITH LOWER STRATUS REMAINING BY LATE
MORNING...AND DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS AN INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 950 MB. LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPS TRAP MOISTURE BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
GREATER NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND
TO VISIBILITIES DOWN TO QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
WE START TO MIX OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON ONCE INVERSION BREAKS. THIS
WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED DAYTIME WARMTH AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES.
THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST TODAY...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON WHEN EXACTLY THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SCATTER OUT. TOOK A MAV/MET BLEND BUT MADE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING WITH
LESS DIURNAL WARMING THAN FARTHER INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS INTERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SCENARIO SETS UP FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD LOWS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. FEATURES ALOFT REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME.
AGAIN A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. WITH FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY...THINK THAT FOG WILL BE KEPT AT PATCHY
COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE CITY FORMING AS A RESULT OF ADVECTION OF
LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TOWARDS THE COAST AND SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING INLAND. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A
QUICKER SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CONDITIONS. LESS REMARKABLE
INCREASE IN WARMTH FOR THE COAST WITH MARITIME INFLUENCE. HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH...MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP. THESE RELATIVELY HIGHER
WINDS WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND WITH DECENT MIXING TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO OR BREAK
THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GRIDS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS CONTINUING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
MAY BE SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON...DRIER WEATHER WILL BE WORKING BACK
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW.
A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COASTAL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR THROUGH 14Z
AS DEVELOPING FOG DIMINISHES VIS LESS THAN 1/2SM...AND DOWN TO
1/4SM AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MODERATE...AND MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED. INLAND...FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 10Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT IFR LEVELS. VIS IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL DIMINISH STILL...WITH ALL SITES DROPPING LESS THAN 010
AND ISOLATED SPOTS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 005. AGAIN...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING. CIGS IMPROVE FOR THE DAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE LIFR VIS THROUGH 12Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING (LOW CONFIDENCE)...THEN
VFR.
.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MARGINAL VFR CIG.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ALL THE
WATERS. WITH DOMINANT RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...SHOULD SEE SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BUT REMAIN SUB
SCA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
104>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
623 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND DISSIPATES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...JET STREAM WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BULK OF
ASSOCIATED PVA SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE ESTABLISHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY.
BIG QUESTION IS THE FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TO BE PRESENT
GOING INTO DAYBREAK AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE CONDITIONS ENDING LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ENDING TIME AND RUC BUFKIT FOR EXAMPLE
SHOWS A MUCH LONGER DURATION FOR COASTAL SITES WITH THICKENING OF
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE
UP TO AROUND 950 MB. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPS TRAP MOISTURE
BENEATH THIS INVERSION. GREATER NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN
A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND TO VISIBILITIES DOWN TO QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC FOR NOW UNTIL 14Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION TO
INCLUDE ADJACENT AREAS TO THE NORTH SUCH AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NYC...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT.
WE START TO MIX OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON ONCE INVERSION BREAKS. THIS
WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED DAYTIME WARMTH AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES.
THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST TODAY...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON WHEN EXACTLY THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
TOOK A MAV/MET BLEND BUT MADE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING WITH LESS
DIURNAL WARMING THAN FARTHER INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS INTERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SCENARIO SETS UP FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD LOWS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. FEATURES ALOFT REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME.
AGAIN A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. WITH FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY...THINK THAT FOG WILL BE KEPT AT PATCHY
COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE CITY. THIS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT
EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LESS REMARKABLE
INCREASE IN WARMTH FOR THE COAST WITH MARITIME INFLUENCE. HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH...MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP. THESE RELATIVELY HIGHER
WINDS WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND WITH DECENT MIXING TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO OR BREAK
THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GRIDS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS CONTINUING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
MAY BE SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON...DRIER WEATHER WILL BE WORKING BACK
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW.
A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COASTAL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR THROUGH 14Z
AS DEVELOPING FOG DIMINISHES VIS LESS THAN 1/2SM...AND DOWN TO
1/4SM AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MODERATE...AND MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED. INLAND...FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 10Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT IFR LEVELS. VIS IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL DIMINISH STILL...WITH ALL SITES DROPPING LESS THAN 010
AND ISOLATED SPOTS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 005. AGAIN...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING. CIGS IMPROVE FOR THE DAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE LIFR VIS THROUGH 12Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING (LOW CONFIDENCE)...THEN
VFR.
.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MARGINAL VFR CIG.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ338-345-
350-353-355.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074-075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ338-345-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
504 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND DISSIPATES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...JET STREAM WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BULK OF
ASSOCIATED PVA SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE ESTABLISHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY.
BIG QUESTION IS THE FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TO BE PRESENT
GOING INTO DAYBREAK AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE CONDITIONS ENDING LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ENDING TIME AND RUC BUFKIT FOR EXAMPLE
SHOWS A MUCH LONGER DURATION FOR COASTAL SITES WITH THICKENING OF
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE
UP TO AROUND 950 MB. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPS TRAP MOISTURE
BENEATH THIS INVERSION. GREATER NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN
A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND TO VISIBILITIES DOWN TO QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NYC FOR NOW UNTIL 14Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION TO
INCLUDE ADJACENT AREAS TO THE NORTH SUCH AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NYC...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT.
WE START TO MIX OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON ONCE INVERSION BREAKS. THIS
WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED DAYTIME WARMTH AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES.
THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST TODAY...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON WHEN EXACTLY THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
TOOK A MAV/MET BLEND BUT MADE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING WITH LESS
DIURNAL WARMING THAN FARTHER INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS INTERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SCENARIO SETS UP FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD LOWS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. FEATURES ALOFT REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME.
AGAIN A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. WITH FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY...THINK THAT FOG WILL BE KEPT AT PATCHY
COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE CITY. THIS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT
EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LESS REMARKABLE
INCREASE IN WARMTH FOR THE COAST WITH MARITIME INFLUENCE. HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH...MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP. THESE RELATIVELY HIGHER
WINDS WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND WITH DECENT MIXING TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO OR BREAK
THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GRIDS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS CONTINUING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
MAY BE SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON...DRIER WEATHER WILL BE WORKING BACK
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW.
A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COASTAL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR THROUGH 14Z
AS DEVELOPING FOG DIMINISHES VIS LESS THAN 1/2SM...AND DOWN TO
1/4SM AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MODERATE...AND MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED. INLAND...FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 10Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT IFR LEVELS. VIS IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL DIMINISH STILL...WITH ALL SITES DROPPING LESS THAN 010
AND ISOLATED SPOTS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 005. AGAIN...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING. CIGS IMPROVE FOR THE DAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE LIFR VIS THROUGH 12Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING (LOW CONFIDENCE)...THEN
VFR.
.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MARGINAL VFR CIG.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH DOMINANT RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SHOULD SEE
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BUT REMAIN SUB
SCA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074-075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ338-345-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
423 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND DISSIPATES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...JET STREAM WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BULK OF
ASSOCIATED PVA SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE ESTABLISHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY.
BIG QUESTION IS THE FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TO BE PRESENT
GOING INTO DAYBREAK AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ENDING TIME AND RUC BUFKIT FOR EXAMPLE
SHOWS A MUCH LONGER DURATION FOR COASTAL SITES WITH THICKENING OF
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE UP
TO AROUND 950 MB. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPS TRAP MOISTURE
BENEATH THIS INVERSION. OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL
BE. WITH ONLY ISOLATED REPORTS OF FOG IN THE AREA...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR PROGRESS OF UPSTREAM OBS AND SEE HOW FAR THE EXTENT OF
THIS FOG AND HOW DENSE IT GETS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.
WE START TO MIX OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON ONCE INVERSION BREAKS. THIS
WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED DAYTIME WARMTH AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES.
THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST TODAY...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON WHEN EXACTLY THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
TOOK A MAV/MET BLEND BUT MADE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING WITH LESS
DIURNAL WARMING THAN FARTHER INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS INTERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SCENARIO SETS UP FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD LOWS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. FEATURES ALOFT REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME.
AGAIN A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. WITH FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY...THINK THAT FOG WILL BE KEPT AT PATCHY
COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE CITY. THIS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT
EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LESS REMARKABLE
INCREASE IN WARMTH FOR THE COAST WITH MARITIME INFLUENCE. HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH...MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP. THESE RELATIVELY HIGHER
WINDS WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND WITH DECENT MIXING TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO OR BREAK
THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GRIDS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS CONTINUING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
MAY BE SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON...DRIER WEATHER WILL BE WORKING BACK
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW.
A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COASTAL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR THROUGH 14Z
AS DEVELOPING FOG DIMINISHES VIS LESS THAN 1/2SM...AND DOWN TO
1/4SM AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MODERATE...AND MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED. INLAND...FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 10Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AT IFR LEVELS. VIS IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL DIMINISH STILL...WITH ALL SITES DROPPING LESS THAN 010
AND ISOLATED SPOTS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 005. AGAIN...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING. CIGS IMPROVE FOR THE DAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS/CIG DIMINISH TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST VIS AND CIGS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE LIFR VIS THROUGH 12Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING (LOW CONFIDENCE)...THEN
VFR.
.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MARGINAL VFR CIG.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH DOMINANT RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SHOULD SEE
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BUT REMAIN SUB
SCA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ338-345-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
401 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND DISSIPATES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...JET STREAM WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BULK OF
ASSOCIATED PVA SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE ESTABLISHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY.
BIG QUESTION IS THE FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TO BE PRESENT
GOING INTO DAYBREAK AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ENDING TIME AND RUC BUFKIT FOR EXAMPLE
SHOWS A MUCH LONGER DURATION FOR COASTAL SITES WITH THICKENING OF
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE UP
TO AROUND 950 MB. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPS TRAP MOISTURE
BENEATH THIS INVERSION. OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL
BE. WITH ONLY ISOLATED REPORTS OF FOG IN THE AREA...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR PROGRESS OF UPSTREAM OBS AND SEE HOW FAR THE EXTENT OF
THIS FOG AND HOW DENSE IT GETS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.
WE START TO MIX OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON ONCE INVERSION BREAKS. THIS
WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED DAYTIME WARMTH AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES.
THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST TODAY...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER OR LOWER DEPENDING ON WHEN EXACTLY THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
TOOK A MAV/MET BLEND BUT MADE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING WITH LESS
DIURNAL WARMING THAN FARTHER INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS INTERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SAME SCENARIO SETS UP FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD LOWS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. FEATURES ALOFT REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME.
AGAIN A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. WITH FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY...THINK THAT FOG WILL BE KEPT AT PATCHY
COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE CITY. THIS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT
EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LESS REMARKABLE
INCREASE IN WARMTH FOR THE COAST WITH MARITIME INFLUENCE. HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH...MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP. THESE RELATIVELY HIGHER
WINDS WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD REDUCE THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND WITH DECENT MIXING TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO OR BREAK
THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GRIDS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS CONTINUING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
MAY BE SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON...DRIER WEATHER WILL BE WORKING BACK
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE DRIFTS N
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS S NJ/SE PA
AND CREEPING NORTH...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN POTENTIAL FOR IFR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING ACROSS COASTAL
TERMINALS.
STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT STRATUS
REMAINING OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO IT COMING
BACK INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN TUES
EVE. CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS LOW.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT SE FLOW...VEERING MAINLY TO THE RIGHT
OF 120 TRUE IN THE AFTERNOON. HYBRID AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ALONG
COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD VEER WINDS MORE TO THE SSE.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING (LOW
CONFIDENCE)...THEN VFR.
.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MARGINAL VFR CIG.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH DOMINANT RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SHOULD SEE
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BUT REMAIN SUB
SCA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
710 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE,
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
AND THEN HEAD OFF TO THE EAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
INTO WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE, MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND IT`S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WILL
BE APPROACHING OUR REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST SHRAS CHANCES, MAINLY TO CUT THEM OFF SOONER
BASED ON 18Z NAM LATEST HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR DEPICTION. THUNDER
GONE AS OUR PREDECESSORS HAD. WE STARTED THE FOG A LITTLE EARLIER
BASED ON A SPOTTER REPORT FROM OCEAN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS NEEDED VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT, BUT
SAID FLOW IS RATHER LIGHT AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THE AIR COMES FROM A
FAIRLY HUMID PLACE. IT DOESN`T SEEM THAT WE GET SCOURED OUT. THERE
ALSO DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE ALOFT MOST PLACES, SO
WHATEVER CLEARING WE GET THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WE TOOK A LOOK AT THE MID LEVEL LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND ADDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WE AVOIDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
NOW.
IF WE GET DECENT RADIATING, THEN THE TEMPERATURES MAY DRIVE DOWN THE
19Z DEW POINTS. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME MIXING OUT OF SAID
DEW POINTS DURING THE REMAINS OF THE DAY. STILL, THOSE 19Z DEW
POINTS WERE QUITE HIGH, AND SO OUR OVERNIGHT MINS ARE ON THE MILD
SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOME MARGINALLY DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OPENS AND CONTINUES EAST
SLOWLY, AND THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING AND SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
THAN WE HAD TODAY (ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA). IT ALSO MAY ALLOW EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DISSIPATE MORE QUICKLY. THE SURFACE FLOW LOOKS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, AND
THAT IS NOT A PARTICULARLY DRY FLOW. OUR FORECAST MAXES ARE
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT US MIXING UP TO H925, AND IF WE DON`T, THEN THEY
WOULD BE TOO HIGH. WE JUST CARRY SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTHEAST
OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MID LEVEL LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST,
WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONTAL ZONE COULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY EFFECT THIS MIGHT HAVE IS
TO BRIEFLY TURN THE WINDS TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS COULD
HELP INHIBIT DENSE FOG FROM FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
OUR WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE COASTAL SECTIONS, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. WE`LL THEN TURN OUT ATTENTION TO LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE, RIDING
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, COULD TOUCH OFF A WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE LOW WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
OUR VERY WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE COMING TO AN END
SATURDAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS USHER IN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE ON
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. SUNDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE EVEN
COOLER WITH CLOUDS, RAIN AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT
POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA.
THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
ONE OR TWO COULD LINGER ALONG OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE
INTO OUR AREA BRINGING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER LATER MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND MAINLY IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND IT`S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WILL BE APPROACHING OUR AREA. THIS COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
ANOTHER NIGHT WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING LIFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE COAST AND ENVELOP OUR TERMINALS BY MORNING. WE TIMED IFR
CONDITIONS TO ARRIVE IN THE KPHL LOCAL AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT,
SOONER EAST AND LATER AT KABE AND KRDG. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING IN SERN NJ AND BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDING INVERSION,
BELIEVE THE STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP AND COME IN AT A LOWER HEIGHT
THAN LAST NIGHT THRU THE KPHL LOCAL AREA AIRPORTS WITH VSBYS
TUMBLING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AT KABE AND KRDG AS WELL AS OTHER
AIRPORTS NORTHWEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, CONFIDENCE ABOUT LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THAT AT LEAST LOCALLY
SHOULD PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS WILL BE EITHER LIGHT OR
CALM.
BUILDING ON THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE AND WITH MORE OF AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, WE DID BRING BACK VFR CONDITIONS
(VSBY FIRST AGAIN) TO ALL THE TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THE OVERALL GRADIENT WIND SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. THERE IS
A LIKELIHOOD FOR A SEA BREEZE FRONT TO FORM, BUT AT THIS TIME WE
KEPT IT EAST OF ALL THE TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR
OUT IN THE FUTURE IS NOT THAT HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
COULD BE SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY,
DON`T EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO BE AS LOW OR AS WIDESPREAD AS THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS. THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION JUST TO OUR
SOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN EXIT OFF TO THE EAST LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN/SHOWERS/FOG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS THE LOW
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT, ALTHOUGH THEY MAY START TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE LATER THURSDAY. SEAS ALSO ARE
FORECAST TO BE BENIGN.
OUTLOOK...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SW WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BRIEFLY SWING AROUND TO NW AND N FRIDAY MORNING, AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
NE TO E FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN E`RLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE LOW
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND EXITS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN,
WHICH, IN TURN, WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE. IT APPEARS
THAT ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPW
NEAR TERM...DELISI/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...RPW
AVIATION...GIGI/RPW
MARINE...DELISI/RPW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
700 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE NEAR NORFOLK VIRGINIA WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. THAT WILL PERMIT A COLD FRONT TO
SETTLE SOUTH INTO DELMARVA FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...PLAINS STATES LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THAT FRONT TO NEAR DELMARVA SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN OUT TO SEA SUNDAY EVENING. A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHORT TERM UPDATE BASED ON LATEST HRRR TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHRAS
STARTING NOW. HRRR SWINGS SOME SHRAS ACROSS NERN CWA OVERNIGHT,
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY TO INCLUDE WITH THIS
UPDATE. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT OBS,
MOST OF WHICH WERE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY.
THE MESO LOW, JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST, KEEPING CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE MESO LOW,
ALONG WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE TIP OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND, WILL KEEP A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THAT WILL MEAN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FOG. ONCE THE
SUN SETS, THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD PUSH QUICKLY INLAND.
EXPECT CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. IN OTHER WORDS, WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG,
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IF ONE IS NEEDED, IT
WILL BE ISSUED ONCE WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON THE AREAS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED. WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE HIGH SIDE AND CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED
TO ROLL IN, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH. I
ACTUALLY WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MET/MAV AVERAGE. COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT DID
NOT PUT THEM IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ACTUALLY BE BUILDING INTO
A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL, ONCE AGAIN,
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPS: CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE EXCESSIVE
15 TO 25 DEGREE CALENDER DAY ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH OF THIS WEEK WILL
BE TEMPORARILY SUBDUED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATER THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALOFT: THE BROAD VERY STRONG RIDGE WITH ITS STRONGEST N-S AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE CUT BACK ON ITS EASTERN ATLANTIC
FLANK BY A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES. TWO OF THOSE SHORT WAVES
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY HUDSON BAY CANADA THROUGH THE
MARITIMES (1) THURSDAY FRIDAY AND (2) SUNDAY MONDAY...WHILE THE
HUGE SOUTHERN ROCKIES VORTEX SLOWLY WEAKENS AFTER ITS NORTHEASTWARD
EXIT OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY...SHOVING EASTWARD OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND PERMITTING A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
SETTLE SOUTH INTO DELMARVA FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE REMAINS OF THE
PLAINS STATES LOW TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TO NEAR DELMARVA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF RELATIVELY CHILLY /NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR/ CANADIAN AIR IN ITS WAKE BY TUESDAY BUT THIS IS STILL IN
THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TIME FRAME.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BLENDED 12Z/20 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE BENEATH THE RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT-STRONG RIDGE. LIGHT WIND.
FOG AND STRATUS...MAY NOT BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE. THE REASONING...A
TENDENCY FOR A WLY BL WIND DEVELOPING EARLY THU. CALLED IT PATCHY
FOG FOR NOW AND MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY...WIND TENDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY AND WARMER. A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF RECORD WARMTH ON
ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS...THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CONTINUED RELATIVELY
DRY...IN PART BECAUSE OF THE NEAR 560 WARM THICKNESSES AND NO FOLIAGE
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CONTRIBUTION. NCEP MOS POPS AGREE WITH THE DRY
PATTERN CONTINUING...DESPITE A CFP...POSSIBLY THRU THE WARMEST
TIME OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND WE MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD A CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS COOLER
MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY THAN WHAT WE HAVE POSTED BUT THIS MAY IN
PART BE DUE TO ITS TRYING TO FCST A SHOWER DURING MIDDAY THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...WE ARE DRY AND WARMER THAN THE 12Z/20 ECMWF AND CLOSE TO
12/20 NCEP MEX GUIDANCE.
THIS WEEKEND...A RAINY PERIOD EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PLAINS STATES LOW TURNING EAST OR ESE TOWARD THE DELMARVA. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN...AN ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW OFF THE COLDER SSTS
OF THE ATLANTIC /WHICH ARE VARIABLE BUT NEAR 10C/ AND A SWD
INJECTION OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ADD A COOLER FLAVOR COMPARED TO THE READINGS OF THIS
WORKWEEK. HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS ACCEPTED WHICH ARE COLDER THAN THE
12Z/20 GFS MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS. TODAY`S EC STICKS WITH THESE COLDER
TEMPS. OUR POPS ARE LIKELY FOR NOW... BUT UNDOUBTEDLY THERE HAS TO
BE INTERMITTENT RAIN FOR AT LEAST ONE OF THESE TWO WEEKEND DAYS
AND THERE MAY BE E QUITE A LOT. WOULD NOT SURPRISE TO SEE 2 INCH
AMTS...ESPECIALLY S NJ SE PA SWD CLOSER TO SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS /THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY THERE BUT NOT GRIDDED ATTM/.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...NCEP FAIR WX GUIDANCE ACCEPTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES WITH A DECENT BURST OF NLY FLOW CAA...STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT NEARLY THE RECENT EXTREMES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND ENVELOPING ALL BY 06Z OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND TIMING IN GENERAL WAS
ZERO TO TWO HOURS FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT. WE ARE FORECASTING
PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE
FOLLOWED THE SAME IMPROVEMENT SCENARIO AS TODAY, VSBYS GO VFR
ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE THE IFR STRATUS CIG DISSIPATES TO VFR
CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION IS WE HELD THE IFR STRATUS CIG LONGER INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT KACY. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT KACY, BUT
ELSEWHERE FORECAST MOISTURE LEVELS ABOVE THE GROUND ARE MEAGER
ENOUGH THAT ONLY SCATTERED NON CIG VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL START LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CALM
IN MOST PLACES. THE PREVAILING DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. A SEA AND POSSIBLY BAY BREEZE FRONT SHOULD
FORM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE DETAILS AS WE COME CLOSER IN
TIME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST PATCHY IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG ARE
PROBABLE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE. LIGHT WIND TRENDING SW LATE.
THURSDAY...ANY MORNING IFR/LIFR GIVES WAY TO VFR CONDS AND WIND
TRENDING SW OR W IN THE AFTN G10-15 KTS.
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT WLY WIND AHEAD OF THE CFP THEN SHIFTING N OR E
FOLLOWING CFP. IFR STRATUS OR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN THE LIGHT
ATLANTIC MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW. /LOW PROB A LINE OF SCT SHOWERS OR
TSTMS NEAR THE CF FRIDAY AFTN?/
THIS WEEKEND...MVFR/IFR CONDS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN SHOWERY RAINS WITH E FLOW SAT AND GUSTY N-NE FLOW 15 TO
25 KTS SUNDAY. SMALL CHC OF THUNDER S OF PHL.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND AND A VERY WEAK MESO
LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. E WINDS 5 TO 10
KT WILL BECOME SE WEDNESDAY AND THEN TURN MORE S`RLY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE VERY MOIST AND WILL ALLOW FOG TO
FORM OR MOVE BACK OVER OUR WATERS TONIGHT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING ENDS, THIS AREA SHOULD EXPAND
RATHER QUICKLY. IF VSBYS DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER A WIDE PORTION OF
OUR AREA, A MARINE ADVISORY, OR AT THE VERY LEAST, A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. ALL MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VSBYS
COULD DROP QUICKLY IN AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
LIFT WEDNESDAY, MUCH AS IT DID TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
NO HEADLINES ATTM FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...
TENDING TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR SE WITH A CFP OF SHIFTING WIND FRIDAY.
A STRONG PROBABILITY FOR STRONG SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY OR
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY IN STRENGTHENING NE FLOW SHIFTING N AND ATLC
SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXS NOT ALL OF THESE WILL BE AT RISK OF EXCEEDENCE.
TODAY`S REVIEW OF FCST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRIDAY THE MORE
LIKELY DAY FOR MANY RECORDS BUT...IF THERE IS NO RAIN ON THURSDAY AND
A DECENT WSW WIND WITH PLENTY OF SS...THERE WOULD ALSO BE A NUMBER
OF RECORDS ON THURSDAY AS WELL.
3/22 3/23
ACY 84-1948 79-1907 POR 1874
PHL 80-1948 78-1938/1907 POR 1872
ILG 82-1948 78-1994/1923 POR 1894
ABE 75-1929 73-1979/1923 POR 1922
TTN 79-1938 79-1938 POR 1865
GED 78-1955 80-2007 POR 1948
RDG 83-1938 79-1938 POR 1869
MPO 73-1938 70-1938 POR 1901
FOR THE THE FIRST 19 DAYS... DAILY MEAN TEMPS SO FAR ARE
KABE PLUS 10.7F
KACY PLUS 9.1F
KGED PLUS 9.2F
KPHL PLUS 8.9F
KRDG PLUS 10.2F
KTTN PLUS 11.0F
KILG PLUS 8.8F
KMPO PLUS 12.0F
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/RPW
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
606 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE NEAR NORFOLK VIRGINIA WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. THAT WILL PERMIT A COLD FRONT TO
SETTLE SOUTH INTO DELMARVA FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...PLAINS STATES LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THAT FRONT TO NEAR DELMARVA SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN OUT TO SEA SUNDAY EVENING. A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHORT TERM UPDATE BASED ON LATEST HRRR TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHRAS
STARTING NOW. HRRR SWINGS SOME SHRAS ACROSS NERN CWA OVERNIGHT,
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY TO INCLUDE WITH THIS
UPDATE. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT OBS,
MOST OF WHICH WERE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY.
THE MESO LOW, JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST, KEEPING CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE MESO LOW,
ALONG WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE TIP OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND, WILL KEEP A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THAT WILL MEAN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FOG. ONCE THE
SUN SETS, THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD PUSH QUICKLY INLAND.
EXPECT CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. IN OTHER WORDS, WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG,
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IF ONE IS NEEDED, IT
WILL BE ISSUED ONCE WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON THE AREAS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED. WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE HIGH SIDE AND CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED
TO ROLL IN, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH. I
ACTUALLY WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MET/MAV AVERAGE. COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT DID
NOT PUT THEM IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ACTUALLY BE BUILDING INTO
A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL, ONCE AGAIN,
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPS: CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE EXCESSIVE
15 TO 25 DEGREE CALENDER DAY ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH OF THIS WEEK WILL
BE TEMPORARILY SUBDUED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATER THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALOFT: THE BROAD VERY STRONG RIDGE WITH ITS STRONGEST N-S AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE CUT BACK ON ITS EASTERN ATLANTIC
FLANK BY A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES. TWO OF THOSE SHORT WAVES
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY HUDSON BAY CANADA THROUGH THE
MARITIMES (1) THURSDAY FRIDAY AND (2) SUNDAY MONDAY...WHILE THE
HUGE SOUTHERN ROCKIES VORTEX SLOWLY WEAKENS AFTER ITS NORTHEASTWARD
EXIT OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY...SHOVING EASTWARD OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND PERMITTING A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO
SETTLE SOUTH INTO DELMARVA FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE REMAINS OF THE
PLAINS STATES LOW TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TO NEAR DELMARVA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF RELATIVELY CHILLY /NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR/ CANADIAN AIR IN ITS WAKE BY TUESDAY BUT THIS IS STILL IN
THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TIME FRAME.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BLENDED 12Z/20 NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE BENEATH THE RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT-STRONG RIDGE. LIGHT WIND.
FOG AND STRATUS...MAY NOT BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE. THE REASONING...A
TENDENCY FOR A WLY BL WIND DEVELOPING EARLY THU. CALLED IT PATCHY
FOG FOR NOW AND MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY...WIND TENDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY AND WARMER. A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF RECORD WARMTH ON
ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS...THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CONTINUED RELATIVELY
DRY...IN PART BECAUSE OF THE NEAR 560 WARM THICKNESSES AND NO FOLIAGE
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CONTRIBUTION. NCEP MOS POPS AGREE WITH THE DRY
PATTERN CONTINUING...DESPITE A CFP...POSSIBLY THRU THE WARMEST
TIME OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND WE MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD A CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS COOLER
MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY THAN WHAT WE HAVE POSTED BUT THIS MAY IN
PART BE DUE TO ITS TRYING TO FCST A SHOWER DURING MIDDAY THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...WE ARE DRY AND WARMER THAN THE 12Z/20 ECMWF AND CLOSE TO
12/20 NCEP MEX GUIDANCE.
THIS WEEKEND...A RAINY PERIOD EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PLAINS STATES LOW TURNING EAST OR ESE TOWARD THE DELMARVA. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN...AN ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW OFF THE COLDER SSTS
OF THE ATLANTIC /WHICH ARE VARIABLE BUT NEAR 10C/ AND A SWD
INJECTION OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ADD A COOLER FLAVOR COMPARED TO THE READINGS OF THIS
WORKWEEK. HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS ACCEPTED WHICH ARE COLDER THAN THE
12Z/20 GFS MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS. TODAY`S EC STICKS WITH THESE COLDER
TEMPS. OUR POPS ARE LIKELY FOR NOW... BUT UNDOUBTEDLY THERE HAS TO
BE INTERMITTENT RAIN FOR AT LEAST ONE OF THESE TWO WEEKEND DAYS
AND THERE MAY BE E QUITE A LOT. WOULD NOT SURPRISE TO SEE 2 INCH
AMTS...ESPECIALLY S NJ SE PA SWD CLOSER TO SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS /THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY THERE BUT NOT GRIDDED ATTM/.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...NCEP FAIR WX GUIDANCE ACCEPTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES WITH A DECENT BURST OF NLY FLOW CAA...STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT NEARLY THE RECENT EXTREMES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN COASTAL NEW JERSEY, WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED. ONCE WE
LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY. ALL OF OUR TAF SITES ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME IFR/LIFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING. ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO WORK IT`S MAGIC WEDNESDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST PATCHY IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG ARE
PROBABLE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE. LIGHT WIND TRENDING SW LATE.
THURSDAY...ANY MORNING IFR/LIFR GIVES WAY TO VFR CONDS AND WIND
TRENDING SW OR W IN THE AFTN G10-15 KTS.
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT WLY WIND AHEAD OF THE CFP THEN SHIFTING N OR E
FOLLOWING CFP. IFR STRATUS OR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN THE LIGHT
ATLANTIC MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW. /LOW PROB A LINE OF SCT SHOWERS OR
TSTMS NEAR THE CF FRIDAY AFTN?/
THIS WEEKEND...MVFR/IFR CONDS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN SHOWERY RAINS WITH E FLOW SAT AND GUSTY N-NE FLOW 15 TO
25 KTS SUNDAY. SMALL CHC OF THUNDER S OF PHL.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND AND A VERY WEAK MESO
LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. E WINDS 5 TO 10
KT WILL BECOME SE WEDNESDAY AND THEN TURN MORE S`RLY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE VERY MOIST AND WILL ALLOW FOG TO
FORM OR MOVE BACK OVER OUR WATERS TONIGHT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING ENDS, THIS AREA SHOULD EXPAND
RATHER QUICKLY. IF VSBYS DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER A WIDE PORTION OF
OUR AREA, A MARINE ADVISORY, OR AT THE VERY LEAST, A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. ALL MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VSBYS
COULD DROP QUICKLY IN AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
LIFT WEDNESDAY, MUCH AS IT DID TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
NO HEADLINES ATTM FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...
TENDING TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR SE WITH A CFP OF SHIFTING WIND FRIDAY.
A STRONG PROBABILITY FOR STRONG SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY OR
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY IN STRENGTHENING NE FLOW SHIFTING N AND ATLC
SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXS NOT ALL OF THESE WILL BE AT RISK OF EXCEEDENCE.
TODAY`S REVIEW OF FCST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRIDAY THE MORE
LIKELY DAY FOR MANY RECORDS BUT...IF THERE IS NO RAIN ON THURSDAY AND
A DECENT WSW WIND WITH PLENTY OF SS...THERE WOULD ALSO BE A NUMBER
OF RECORDS ON THURSDAY AS WELL.
3/22 3/23
ACY 84-1948 79-1907 POR 1874
PHL 80-1948 78-1938/1907 POR 1872
ILG 82-1948 78-1994/1923 POR 1894
ABE 75-1929 73-1979/1923 POR 1922
TTN 79-1938 79-1938 POR 1865
GED 78-1955 80-2007 POR 1948
RDG 83-1938 79-1938 POR 1869
MPO 73-1938 70-1938 POR 1901
FOR THE THE FIRST 19 DAYS... DAILY MEAN TEMPS SO FAR ARE
KABE PLUS 10.7F
KACY PLUS 9.1F
KGED PLUS 9.2F
KPHL PLUS 8.9F
KRDG PLUS 10.2F
KTTN PLUS 11.0F
KILG PLUS 8.8F
KMPO PLUS 12.0F
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/RPW
MARINE...DRAG/RPW
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
148 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...FEW AVIATION CONCERNS OF NOTE FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE IN MODEST SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. LITTLE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL KEEP STRONGER FORCING WITH CUT
OFF UPPER LOW TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. DEEPER MIXING
EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TODAY WITH DEEPER MIXING TO THE SURFACE OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR PRECLUDING ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012/
AVIATION/UPDATE...
SCT TSTMS OVER NWRN IN HAVE DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
EVE AS TSTM OUTFLOWS AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING HAVE STABILIZED
AIRMASS. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP FOR ENDING OF SHOWERS BY 00Z. ANOTHER
WK SHRTWV EXPECTED TO LIFT UP WESTERN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCING TSTMS AS FAR EAST AS WEST CENTRAL
IL THIS EVE BUT SHOULD ONLY CAUSE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS
NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT. THE AFTN STORMS ACROSS NW INDIANA HAVE
RESULTED IN A COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAN 24HRS AGO AT
SBN SO FOG A CONCERN THERE TONIGHT... BUT APPEARS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO KEEP VSBYS VFR AT
THE TERMINAL. WK INSTABILITY WILL BUILD WITH DIURNAL HEATING AGAIN
DURING THE DAY TUE... BUT WITH LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS...
EXPECT JUST SCT CU WILL RESULT. FAIRLY DEEP MIXING DURING THE DAY
SHOULD RESULT IN MODEST SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
ABOUT 22KT PSBL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012/
SHORT TERM... /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MOST PERSISTENT AND STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHERN LAPORTE COUNTY AND HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING SE WITH TIME AS
THE STORM CYCLES. THIS STORM WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTH BEND OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING
UPSTREAM ACROSS EC ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA. SFC BASED
CAPES OF 2000 J/KG AND LI`S TO -6 C WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
HRRR FIRES EVEN MORE CONVECTION WITH TIME INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THINK HRRR MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE ON ITS
COVERAGE...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR EXPANDING COVERAGE AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM ST JOE COUNTY CONVECTION MAY EXPAND COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING AS LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS AND BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE IN STORE FROM MID EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE ANY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT
OF THE ZONES FOR THE TIME BEING.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FEW CHANGES TO AFFORD WRT MED-LONG TERM
FCST PD. CENTROID OF STALWART RIDGE AMASSES INTO WRN OH BY WED
EVE. CONTINUED STRONG INSOLATION AMID STAGNANT AIRMASS CONTS TO
SUPPORT PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPS INTO WED WITH WED AFTN LKLY
WARMEST...DARE I SAY HOTTEST AS LLVL THERMAL FIELD REACHES APEX.
CONT TO WHITTLE AWAY AT LAKE SHADOW AS STRONG SRLY FLOW TO KEEP
DTC RESPONSE OFFSHORE. WITH INCREASED AGREEMENT WRT TIMING OF 5H
CUTOFF HOLDING SOUTH OF TEXAS RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 18 UTC
WED...THEREAFTER ONLY SLOWLY LIFTING NEWD TO KS/MO BORDER FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE TAKING ON A MORE ERLY EXODUS AS NEXT EPAC TROF
DIGS AND IMPARTS DOWNSTREAM BROAD FLAT RIDGING FM WRN TX TO ERN
MT/DAKOTAS. GIVEN SLOWER TREND OF MID/UL PATTERN HAVE REMOVED POPS
THU AMID POOR MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND ACYCLONIC MIDLVL FLOW AND
ABSENCE OF PARTICULAR FOCI. TRENDED POPS HIR ON FRIDAY AS MIDLVL
COLD POOL NEARS WITH MORE FAVORABLE CLOSED CORE LOW CONCEPTUAL
MODEL. INCRSD DIVERGENCE BYND DY6 THOUGH TEND TO FAVOR MORE SERLY
TURN OF ECMWF. GIVEN BREADTH AND SLOW ERLY PROGRESSION INTO HIGH
HGHT ANOMALY...SUSPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ERLY NEXT WEEK TO ONCE
AGAIN SEGUE INTO A PD OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
UPDATE...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
911 PM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...AT 03Z RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FROM MCCOOK TO COLBY TO TRIBUNE MOVING WEST AT 20-25
MPH. LATEST 00Z NAM AND RUC HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS BAND AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE IT WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE FURTHER EAST
DRIER AIR MOVES IN PRODUCING A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL WITH THE BAND MOVING
WEST. ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG GIVEN THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOW T/TD SPREADS. AREAS FURTHER EAST THAT MAY NOT SEE RAIN
DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR FOG.
WINDS TONIGHT GUSTY FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TEXAS 500 MB LOW HAS MOVED NORTHEAST
THE PAST FEW HOURS. DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
SOUTHERN KANSAS...BUT EXPECT MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z. BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT PER Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL HAVE A LONG WAY TO TRAVEL BEFORE THEY ARRIVE
HERE...FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RAINS IS HIGH ESPECIALLY AS THE
CLOSED LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE THEM AFTER 03Z. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FOG
TO THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
LOW WILL STALL OVER OKLAHOMA THURSDAY PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING. MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED
TO THE NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE AIR MASS WILL DRY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
50S...VERY SIMILAR TO THE TEMPERATURES REACH TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS
TO THE EAST COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN MODERATING FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EAST...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER
70S AND MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 80F. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD 80F TEMPS AND LOW-MID
80S POSSIBLE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY LINE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH WITH
HIGH TD VALUES AND GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING EAST OF THIS FEATURE. A
DEEP DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH STRONG
CIN...AND THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND IVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THE ECMWF FOR THE LAST TWO RUNS HAS PRODUCED QPF EAST OF
THE FORECAST DRY LINE...SO A STORM OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
KANSAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE CAP WERE TO WEAKEN. THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
LOOKING BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK GENERALLY SUPPORTS DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY WE MAY HAVE AWHILE TO WAIT
FOR A MEANINGFUL SHOT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER OUR CURRENT
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4000
FEET...BUT SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KMCK/KGLD. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z
SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES AFTER 06Z IN RAIN AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH SATURDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS REGARDING THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
DRY LINE OVER THE CWA EACH DAY...WITH A LARGE TD GRADIENT POSSIBLE
FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A QUESTION MARK EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TO REACH CRITERIA ON
WINDS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REACHING RFW CRITERIA
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOT THAT CAN CHANGE IN REGARDS
TO TD AND WINDS EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH IN TIME TO
ISSUE A WATCH/WARNING...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...MENTZER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH
DRAPED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL KS ALREADY MOVING TOWARDS CWA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CWA FROM THE E/SE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN FOR THE EVENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW CHANGE
OVER BASED ON FAVORABLE WBZ HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA IN THE 09-12Z TIME-FRAME TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SHIFTS NORTH...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. I LEFT ISO THUNDERSTORM MENTION WED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE ECMWF/GFS STILL SHOWS WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE DECENT RAINFALL
OUT OF THIS WITH 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EVENT.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTH THURSDAY A DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS
WAY W/NW INTO OUR CWA. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
BAND OF PRECIP LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE IN THE EAST. IN THE EXTREME SE
PART OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER THERE COULD STILL
BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER RE-DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SO I ONLY TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN LOCATIONS.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY WIND AND
CLOUD COVER...SO VALUES SHOULD REMAIN IN MID 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
AFFECTED BY PRECIP/CLOUDS....WITH THE COOLEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM ABOVE THE UPPER 40S OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL MODERATE SOME
WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. WHILE THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY COULD APPROACH RECORD LEVELS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
DURING OUR WARM-UP LAST WEEK. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AND WITH VALUES IN THE LOW 80S OVER
A LARGE PART OF THE AREA POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE
TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH VALUES IN THE LOW-
UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DRY LINE LINGERING
OVER THE CWA AND INSTABILITY BUILDING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. A STRONG CAP AND VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SO I LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED. SFC WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE BACK UNDER SCT-BKN CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHRA
WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH MCK AND GLD. AT THAT TIME MVRF CIGS AND VIS
SHOULD DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY DAWN AND CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
314 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
A LARGE MID LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON RUC MODEL WAS ANALYZING A -30C COLD CORE
CENTER AT 500MB NEAR MIDLAND, TX. THERE WAS A 110KT SPEED MAX STILL
ON THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AT 400MB ALONG THE AZ-NM
BORDER. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS TRYING TO REFORM FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER AND RENEWED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THIS AREA. FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH AT 19Z WAS FROM JUST EAST OF LIBERAL TO
JUST WEST OF DODGE CITY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST WEST OF HAYS.
UP IN THE HAYS AREA...SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL VORTICITY AND A FEW REPORTS OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS RESULTED. THE ANALYZED SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THIS AREA WAS
AT BEST 100 J/KG OR SO. PRECIPITATION WAS INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND INTO ADJACENT MEADE, CLARK, COMANCHE,
BARBER COUNTIES IN AN ENHANCED AREA OF 700MB DEFORMATION AND
CONVERGENCE AS OF 20Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST POP/WX GRIDS REFLECT THIS AND NOW THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
HOW MUCH WILL FALL BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION AREA MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS WILL GROW AND EXPAND
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
MESOSCALE MID-LEVEL PV ANOMALY SURGES NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE 700-800MB CONVERGENCE/DEFORMATION
LEADING TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER TONIGHT.
THIS DEFORMATION AXIS WILL THEN PIVOT WESTWARD WITH RESULTING
PRECIPITATION RATES SHIFTING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WE ARE LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN AREAS FROM MEADE TO CIMARRON
AND POINTS EAST TO PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE. ELSEWHERE NORTH AND
EAST OF THIS AREA...A GENERAL TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT DURING THE RAINFALL EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
NORTHEAST...BECOMING NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AS THE SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE AREA OF DEEPLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD FROM NORTH TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO POINTS EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. AS
A RESULT, WESTERN KANSAS CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF ABOUT 36-48 HOURS OF
CLOUDY, COOL AND AT TIMES WET CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE GFS, ECMWF
AND NAM MODELS, GOOD UPPER DEFORMATION WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. THAT IS WHERE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IS MOST
LIKELY TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS MIGHT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE. THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL IN THE NAM IS
BETWEEN -25 AND -30 DEGREES C. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY IS NOT A CONCERN, THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
DO CAUSE CONCERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND THIS WILL
BE THE CASE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES DO NOT
OFFER A LOT OF SPREAD ON MONDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES NOT EXCEEDING THE LOW 50S, AND WE`VE USED A CONSENSUS
MOS WHICH IS AMONG THE COOLEST SOLUTIONS FOR THE DAY. THE GFSMOS
ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE AS GOOD OF A SOLUTION FOR EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES (IN THE 30S). GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT BY FRIDAY, THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL.
THEREFORE WE MIGHT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS STILL EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WITH FULL
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE
MODELS DON`T HAVE THE SAME RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WARMING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE
WEEKEND COULD BE FAIRLY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S, TO WARM NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 80S DEGREES FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION WILL BE FLIGHT CATEGORY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH MOIST FLOW
BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AREAS OF STEADY RAIN TO ALL THREE
TERMINALS (DDC, GCK, HYS). THE GOING FORECAST CALLS FOR PREVAILING
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH AVERAGE CEILING IN THE IFR
RANGE. THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT TREMENDOUSLY HIGH IN THE CEILING
FORECAST AS HEAVIER RAIN AREAS WILL MODULATE THE CEILING...SO
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE FROM 700 FEET TO 1500 MOST OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIFR...HOWEVER
CURRENT TAF DOES NOT REFLECT THIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 36 53 39 55 / 90 80 50 50
GCK 34 51 37 55 / 90 90 70 30
EHA 32 47 37 55 / 90 90 50 30
LBL 34 50 37 55 / 90 90 40 40
HYS 37 54 39 56 / 80 80 80 40
P28 41 58 41 55 / 90 30 60 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
109 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE RATHER NARROW CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED IN
THE DODGE CITY AREA. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST HAS
OCCURRED IN THE SCOTT CITY AND GARDEN CITY AREA WITH THIS TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THE DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 15Z. THE NEXT FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL BE
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES. SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 13KM
RUC AND 4KM HRRR INDICATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN INCREASING
800-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST FLOW AFTER 18Z. AS A RESULT HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LIBERAL TO CIMARRON TO HAYS LINE.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT TO 80-90 PERCENT OF MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS AS IMPRESSIVE
SSE TO NNW FLOW SPREADS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON THE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTH SIDE OF
THE ROBUST UPPER LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 1/4SM IN DENSE FOG AT DDC THIS MORNING IN
A ZONE OF LOW SURFACE DEPRESSIONS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT WE`VE ADDED AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING THOUGH AT LEAST 15 UTC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOG DEVELOPMENT. DENSE FOG APPEARS
TO BE ON THE UPTREND AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THE 500MB LEVEL WAS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
AND COLORADO BORDER AT 20/00Z. THIS LOW HAS BEEN DEVELOPING CLOSE
TO WHAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE FORECAST, FOR ABOUT THE PAST
5 MODEL RUNS. EAST OF THAT UPPER LOW THERE IS A DEEP JET STREAM IN
THE 120KT RANGE FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD WELL INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL, A LOW
WAS SITUATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO, WITH A 30 TO 40KT JET FLOW
OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR THIS REASON, ALONG WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA, THINK THERE WILL
BE RAIN DEVELOPING IN OUR EAST BY NOON, AND WORKING WESTWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY NOT WRAP AROUND ALL THE WAY WESTWARD
INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 00Z. POPS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE EAST, WITH 50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES, GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 30 POPS FROM WAKEENEY TO
COLDWATER, WITH 20 POPS FARTHER WEST. ALSO FOR TODAY, I LOWER MAX
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES, TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. OUR EAST WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE MID
50S, WITH THICK CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT, SO MOISTURE WILL
JUST CONTINUE BE STACKED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
LIKELY 60 POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS, BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FARTHER WEST, THERE WILL BE ZONE
OF 30 PERCENT POPS, DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN ZONES. WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPES AS RAIN SHOWERS BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SINCE SCOTT CITY SHOWED HOW
FAST DRIER AIR CAN COOL (27F AT 07Z), TONIGHT COULD REALLY COOL DOWN
IN WEST, PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 30S. OUR EAST ZONES WILL MODERATE
AND MINS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S NEAR HAYS AND THE LOWER 40S
AROUND MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE AREA OF DEEPLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD FROM NORTH TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO POINTS EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. AS
A RESULT, WESTERN KANSAS CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF ABOUT 36-48 HOURS OF
CLOUDY, COOL AND AT TIMES WET CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE GFS, ECMWF
AND NAM MODELS, GOOD UPPER DEFORMATION WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. THAT IS WHERE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IS MOST
LIKELY TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS MIGHT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE. THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL IN THE NAM IS
BETWEEN -25 AND -30 DEGREES C. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY IS NOT A CONCERN, THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
DO CAUSE CONCERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND THIS WILL
BE THE CASE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES DO NOT
OFFER A LOT OF SPREAD ON MONDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES NOT EXCEEDING THE LOW 50S, AND WE`VE USED A CONSENSUS
MOS WHICH IS AMONG THE COOLEST SOLUTIONS FOR THE DAY. THE GFSMOS
ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE AS GOOD OF A SOLUTION FOR EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES (IN THE 30S). GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT BY FRIDAY, THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL.
THEREFORE WE MIGHT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS STILL EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WITH FULL
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE
MODELS DON`T HAVE THE SAME RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WARMING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE
WEEKEND COULD BE FAIRLY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S, TO WARM NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 80S DEGREES FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION WILL BE FLIGHT CATEGORY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH MOIST FLOW
BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AREAS OF STEADY RAIN TO ALL THREE
TERMINALS (DDC, GCK, HYS). THE GOING FORECAST CALLS FOR PREVAILING
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH AVERAGE CEILING IN THE IFR
RANGE. THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT TREMENDOUSLY HIGH IN THE CEILING
FORECAST AS HEAVIER RAIN AREAS WILL MODULATE THE CEILING...SO
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE FROM 700 FEET TO 1500 MOST OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIFR...HOWEVER
CURRENT TAF DOES NOT REFLECT THIS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
WITH COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ONCE
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK, INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 36 53 39 55 / 90 80 50 50
GCK 34 51 37 55 / 70 90 70 30
EHA 32 47 37 55 / 60 90 50 30
LBL 34 50 37 55 / 80 90 40 40
HYS 37 54 39 56 / 70 80 80 40
P28 41 58 41 55 / 90 30 60 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...UMSCHEID
SYNOPSIS...BURKE
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM....RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1142 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPDATED THE CURRENT PERIOD TO REMOVE POPS IN COLORADO AND TO
BETTER REFLECT TRENDS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. APPEARS
WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR -SHRA TO MOVE INTO MY FAR ERN/SE ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS/PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY TODAY
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THIS LATER PROBLEM WILL DEPEND ON THE BEHAVIOR OF DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWING CONTINUING TO SHOW
AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
IN FACT FLOW OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
OF COURSE MAJOR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS WHAT THE UPPER LOW IS GOING
TO DO. CURRENTLY SOUTHERN END OF A COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH IS
STARTING TO SAG SOUTH AND DEVELOP INTO THE LOW OF INTEREST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
DEFINITELY SUPPORT THIS CONTINUING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO MUCH
COOLER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...THE NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
BEST ON THE POSITION OF FEATURES AND THE HEIGHT FIELD. AT THE
SURFACE...VERY EARLY ON THE RUC WAS CATCHING WELL WITH OVERALL THE
ECMWF DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE/RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN RETURNS/CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST DEPICTED. DAY
SHIFT CORRECTLY DIAGNOSED THIS PER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/LIFT IN
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB CIRCULATION. PROBLEM HAS BEEN DRY
LOWERS SHOWN IN SOUNDINGS AND CONFIRMED BY LARGE T/TD DEPRESSIONS.
MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS AS WELL YESTERDAY. HAVE SEEN LITTLE IF ANY
GROUND TRUTH IN THE AREA. DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN RIGHT TO SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS...AND REVISIT THIS AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE.
NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WINDS. 00Z MODELS WERE BRINGING IN A SHORT BURST
OF WINDS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
FRONT BLASTED THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED HERE WITH THE
WINDS ALREADY DECREASING AND LOSING THERE GUSTINESS. ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES HAVE GONE THROUGH OR ARE
GOING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. VWPS SHOW NOTHING ABOVE 35 KNOTS THE
COLUMN RIGHT NOW. 06Z GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED WINDS AS WELL. SO
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NOW ONTO THE PRECIPITATION. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE JET
POSITION BUT ALL PUT THE AREA IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET
MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THIS JET SEGMENT MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. BY 18Z THE AREA IS IN
UPSLOPE THROUGH 700 MB DUE TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB
LOW AND THIS UPSLOPE DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PLUS TQ INDEX WOULD INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD CAUSE INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORM...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...AND THE
LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT IS BETTER TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SO PUT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF FOR THE
DAY. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA SPREADS SLOWLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WILL STATE BELOW...MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE SREF QPF/PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. KEPT PHASE AS RAIN
SINCE BELIEVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN
THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WENT BELOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MODEL OUTPUT
IS COMING INTO ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RATHER LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT. TO GO INTO A FULL DISCUSSION ON MODEL DIFFERENCES AND TRENDS
WOULD REQUIRE A NOVEL. MODELS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT BUT STILL
DIFFERENCES OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD ON SPEED AND POSITION OF THE
700-500 MB CIRCULATIONS. GEFS AND CLUSTERING OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER AND AT
TIME FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE CIRCULATION WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN
ON THE SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH SIDE. WHAT TENDED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GEFS OUTPUT WAS THE SREF.
QPF THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE SREF WAS SIMILAR IN POSITION
TO WHAT HPC WAS DEPICTING. SO FOR THE PERIOD WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
THE SREF/GEFS OUTPUT IN ITS PROGRESSION AND QPF LOCATION. SO
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST.
GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION MAY START DECREASING SOME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
UNCERTAINTY ON BEHAVIOR OF SYSTEM/RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE CHOSE TO
GO IN THE MIDDLE GROUND OF AMOUNTS. WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BELIEVE
DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LIQUID. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND POSSIBLE THAT
WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IF WETTER SOLUTIONS
PAN OUT.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED. SFC WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE BACK UNDER SCT-BKN CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHRA
WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH MCK AND GLD. AT THAT TIME MVRF CIGS AND VIS
SHOULD DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY DAWN AND CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
841 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPDATED THE CURRENT PERIOD TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE FOG WORDING AND PULLED
WAY BACK ON THIS AFTERNOON/S PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST /
SOUTHEAST ZONES GIVEN REGIONAL RADAR AND NWP TRENDS. THE RASN MIX
ACROSS ERN COLORADO SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY 18Z. SFC WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ARE GUSTING ABOVE
30 KTS FOR TWO TO THREE HOURS BUT THEN EASE DOWN INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE THEREAFTER. A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS/PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY TODAY
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THIS LATER PROBLEM WILL DEPEND ON THE BEHAVIOR OF DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWING CONTINUING TO SHOW
AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
IN FACT FLOW OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
OF COURSE MAJOR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS WHAT THE UPPER LOW IS GOING
TO DO. CURRENTLY SOUTHERN END OF A COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH IS
STARTING TO SAG SOUTH AND DEVELOP INTO THE LOW OF INTEREST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
DEFINITELY SUPPORT THIS CONTINUING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO MUCH
COOLER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...THE NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
BEST ON THE POSITION OF FEATURES AND THE HEIGHT FIELD. AT THE
SURFACE...VERY EARLY ON THE RUC WAS CATCHING WELL WITH OVERALL THE
ECMWF DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE/RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN RETURNS/CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST DEPICTED. DAY
SHIFT CORRECTLY DIAGNOSED THIS PER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/LIFT IN
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB CIRCULATION. PROBLEM HAS BEEN DRY
LOWERS SHOWN IN SOUNDINGS AND CONFIRMED BY LARGE T/TD DEPRESSIONS.
MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS AS WELL YESTERDAY. HAVE SEEN LITTLE IF ANY
GROUND TRUTH IN THE AREA. DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN RIGHT TO SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS...AND REVISIT THIS AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE.
NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WINDS. 00Z MODELS WERE BRINGING IN A SHORT BURST
OF WINDS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
FRONT BLASTED THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED HERE WITH THE
WINDS ALREADY DECREASING AND LOSING THERE GUSTINESS. ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES HAVE GONE THROUGH OR ARE
GOING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. VWPS SHOW NOTHING ABOVE 35 KNOTS THE
COLUMN RIGHT NOW. 06Z GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED WINDS AS WELL. SO
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NOW ONTO THE PRECIPITATION. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE JET
POSITION BUT ALL PUT THE AREA IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET
MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THIS JET SEGMENT MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. BY 18Z THE AREA IS IN
UPSLOPE THROUGH 700 MB DUE TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB
LOW AND THIS UPSLOPE DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PLUS TQ INDEX WOULD INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD CAUSE INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORM...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...AND THE
LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT IS BETTER TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SO PUT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF FOR THE
DAY. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA SPREADS SLOWLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WILL STATE BELOW...MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE SREF QPF/PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. KEPT PHASE AS RAIN
SINCE BELIEVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN
THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WENT BELOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MODEL OUTPUT
IS COMING INTO ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RATHER LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT. TO GO INTO A FULL DISCUSSION ON MODEL DIFFERENCES AND TRENDS
WOULD REQUIRE A NOVEL. MODELS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT BUT STILL
DIFFERENCES OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD ON SPEED AND POSITION OF THE
700-500 MB CIRCULATIONS. GEFS AND CLUSTERING OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER AND AT
TIME FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE CIRCULATION WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN
ON THE SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH SIDE. WHAT TENDED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GEFS OUTPUT WAS THE SREF.
QPF THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE SREF WAS SIMILAR IN POSITION
TO WHAT HPC WAS DEPICTING. SO FOR THE PERIOD WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
THE SREF/GEFS OUTPUT IN ITS PROGRESSION AND QPF LOCATION. SO
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST.
GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION MAY START DECREASING SOME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
UNCERTAINTY ON BEHAVIOR OF SYSTEM/RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE CHOSE TO
GO IN THE MIDDLE GROUND OF AMOUNTS. WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BELIEVE
DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LIQUID. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND POSSIBLE THAT
WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IF WETTER SOLUTIONS
PAN OUT.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT CEILINGS COULD
LOWER TO JUST ABOVE MVRR. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z. COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AT
BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
934 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE RATHER NARROW CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED IN
THE DODGE CITY AREA. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST HAS
OCCURRED IN THE SCOTT CITY AND GARDEN CITY AREA WITH THIS TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THE DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 15Z. THE NEXT FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL BE
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES. SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 13KM
RUC AND 4KM HRRR INDICATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN INCREASING
800-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST FLOW AFTER 18Z. AS A RESULT HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LIBERAL TO CIMARRON TO HAYS LINE.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT TO 80-90 PERCENT OF MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS AS IMPRESSIVE
SSE TO NNW FLOW SPREADS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON THE NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTH SIDE OF
THE ROBUST UPPER LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 1/4SM IN DENSE FOG AT DDC THIS MORNING IN
A ZONE OF LOW SURFACE DEPRESSIONS AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT WE`VE ADDED AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING THOUGH AT LEAST 15 UTC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOG DEVELOPMENT. DENSE FOG APPEARS
TO BE ON THE UPTREND AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THE 500MB LEVEL WAS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
AND COLORADO BORDER AT 20/00Z. THIS LOW HAS BEEN DEVELOPING CLOSE
TO WHAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE FORECAST, FOR ABOUT THE PAST
5 MODEL RUNS. EAST OF THAT UPPER LOW THERE IS A DEEP JET STREAM IN
THE 120KT RANGE FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD WELL INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL, A LOW
WAS SITUATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO, WITH A 30 TO 40KT JET FLOW
OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR THIS REASON, ALONG WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA, THINK THERE WILL
BE RAIN DEVELOPING IN OUR EAST BY NOON, AND WORKING WESTWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY NOT WRAP AROUND ALL THE WAY WESTWARD
INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 00Z. POPS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE EAST, WITH 50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES, GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 30 POPS FROM WAKEENEY TO
COLDWATER, WITH 20 POPS FARTHER WEST. ALSO FOR TODAY, I LOWER MAX
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES, TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. OUR EAST WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE MID
50S, WITH THICK CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT, SO MOISTURE WILL
JUST CONTINUE BE STACKED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
LIKELY 60 POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS, BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FARTHER WEST, THERE WILL BE ZONE
OF 30 PERCENT POPS, DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN ZONES. WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPES AS RAIN SHOWERS BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SINCE SCOTT CITY SHOWED HOW
FAST DRIER AIR CAN COOL (27F AT 07Z), TONIGHT COULD REALLY COOL DOWN
IN WEST, PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 30S. OUR EAST ZONES WILL MODERATE
AND MINS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S NEAR HAYS AND THE LOWER 40S
AROUND MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE AREA OF DEEPLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD FROM NORTH TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO POINTS EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. AS
A RESULT, WESTERN KANSAS CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF ABOUT 36-48 HOURS OF
CLOUDY, COOL AND AT TIMES WET CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE GFS, ECMWF
AND NAM MODELS, GOOD UPPER DEFORMATION WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. THAT IS WHERE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IS MOST
LIKELY TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS MIGHT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE. THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL IN THE NAM IS
BETWEEN -25 AND -30 DEGREES C. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY IS NOT A CONCERN, THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
DO CAUSE CONCERN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND THIS WILL
BE THE CASE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES DO NOT
OFFER A LOT OF SPREAD ON MONDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES NOT EXCEEDING THE LOW 50S, AND WE`VE USED A CONSENSUS
MOS WHICH IS AMONG THE COOLEST SOLUTIONS FOR THE DAY. THE GFSMOS
ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE AS GOOD OF A SOLUTION FOR EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES (IN THE 30S). GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT BY FRIDAY, THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL.
THEREFORE WE MIGHT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS STILL EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WITH FULL
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE
MODELS DON`T HAVE THE SAME RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WARMING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE
WEEKEND COULD BE FAIRLY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S, TO WARM NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 80S DEGREES FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR HYS WILL
KEEP LOW CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AT KHYS. THIS
STRATUS WILL NEED TO BE PERSISTENTLY MONITORED TO DETERMINE WHEN THE
CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY, ALLOWING A MOIST CONVEYOR BELT TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ALLOW INITIAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY LOWERED
CEILINGS TO MVFR VALUES ON THE LARGE SCALE AFTER 00 UTC.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
WITH COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ONCE
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK, INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 36 53 37 / 60 90 70 60
GCK 58 34 51 36 / 30 70 70 70
EHA 57 32 47 36 / 30 60 60 60
LBL 56 34 50 37 / 50 80 70 70
HYS 56 37 54 38 / 50 70 70 70
P28 59 41 58 41 / 70 90 70 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-045-
064-077-078.
&&
$$
UPDATE...UMSCHEID
SYNOPSIS...BURKE
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM....RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
558 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
JUST ISSUED AN UPDATE TO REMOVE THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION FROM
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MANY
LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE ABOVE FREEZING WITH ONLY ISOLATED NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN PRETTY LARGE AND CONTINUE TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY
CONFIRMATION THAT ANYTHING IS MAKING TO THE GROUND EVEN THOUGH
RADAR IS SHOWING A NARROW WESTWARD MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION.
LAPS SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA INDICATE STILL A RATHER LARGE DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. DUAL POL RADAR PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING THAT
THE PRECIPITATION TRYING TO FALL IS SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LOW
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION
MAKING TO THE GROUND COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. SO THAT WAS
INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST. WILL BE UPDATING AGAIN SHORTLY TO
INTRODUCE FOG. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND SO NOW THAT IT MEANS IT IS DEVELOPING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS/PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY TODAY
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THIS LATER PROBLEM WILL DEPEND ON THE BEHAVIOR OF DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWING CONTINUING TO SHOW
AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
IN FACT FLOW OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
OF COURSE MAJOR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS WHAT THE UPPER LOW IS GOING
TO DO. CURRENTLY SOUTHERN END OF A COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH IS
STARTING TO SAG SOUTH AND DEVELOP INTO THE LOW OF INTEREST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
DEFINITELY SUPPORT THIS CONTINUING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO MUCH
COOLER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...THE NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
BEST ON THE POSITION OF FEATURES AND THE HEIGHT FIELD. AT THE
SURFACE...VERY EARLY ON THE RUC WAS CATCHING WELL WITH OVERALL THE
ECMWF DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE/RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN RETURNS/CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST DEPICTED. DAY
SHIFT CORRECTLY DIAGNOSED THIS PER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/LIFT IN
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB CIRCULATION. PROBLEM HAS BEEN DRY
LOWERS SHOWN IN SOUNDINGS AND CONFIRMED BY LARGE T/TD DEPRESSIONS.
MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS AS WELL YESTERDAY. HAVE SEEN LITTLE IF ANY
GROUND TRUTH IN THE AREA. DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN RIGHT TO SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS...AND REVISIT THIS AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE.
NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WINDS. 00Z MODELS WERE BRINGING IN A SHORT BURST
OF WINDS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
FRONT BLASTED THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED HERE WITH THE
WINDS ALREADY DECREASING AND LOSING THERE GUSTINESS. ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES HAVE GONE THROUGH OR ARE
GOING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. VWPS SHOW NOTHING ABOVE 35 KNOTS THE
COLUMN RIGHT NOW. 06Z GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED WINDS AS WELL. SO
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NOW ONTO THE PRECIPITATION. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE JET
POSITION BUT ALL PUT THE AREA IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET
MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THIS JET SEGMENT MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. BY 18Z THE AREA IS IN
UPSLOPE THROUGH 700 MB DUE TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB
LOW AND THIS UPSLOPE DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PLUS TQ INDEX WOULD INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD CAUSE INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORM...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...AND THE
LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT IS BETTER TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SO PUT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF FOR THE
DAY. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA SPREADS SLOWLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WILL STATE BELOW...MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE SREF QPF/PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. KEPT PHASE AS RAIN
SINCE BELIEVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN
THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WENT BELOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MODEL OUTPUT
IS COMING INTO ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RATHER LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT. TO GO INTO A FULL DISCUSSION ON MODEL DIFFERENCES AND TRENDS
WOULD REQUIRE A NOVEL. MODELS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT BUT STILL
DIFFERENCES OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD ON SPEED AND POSITION OF THE
700-500 MB CIRCULATIONS. GEFS AND CLUSTERING OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER AND AT
TIME FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE CIRCULATION WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN
ON THE SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH SIDE. WHAT TENDED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GEFS OUTPUT WAS THE SREF.
QPF THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE SREF WAS SIMILAR IN POSITION
TO WHAT HPC WAS DEPICTING. SO FOR THE PERIOD WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
THE SREF/GEFS OUTPUT IN ITS PROGRESSION AND QPF LOCATION. SO
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST.
GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION MAY START DECREASING SOME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
UNCERTAINTY ON BEHAVIOR OF SYSTEM/RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE CHOSE TO
GO IN THE MIDDLE GROUND OF AMOUNTS. WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BELIEVE
DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LIQUID. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND POSSIBLE THAT
WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IF WETTER SOLUTIONS
PAN OUT.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT CEILINGS COULD
LOWER TO JUST ABOVE MVRR. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z. COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AT
BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
528 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS/PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY TODAY
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THIS LATER PROBLEM WILL DEPEND ON THE BEHAVIOR OF DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWING CONTINUING TO SHOW
AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
IN FACT FLOW OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
OF COURSE MAJOR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS WHAT THE UPPER LOW IS GOING
TO DO. CURRENTLY SOUTHERN END OF A COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH IS
STARTING TO SAG SOUTH AND DEVELOP INTO THE LOW OF INTEREST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
DEFINITELY SUPPORT THIS CONTINUING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO MUCH
COOLER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...THE NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
BEST ON THE POSITION OF FEATURES AND THE HEIGHT FIELD. AT THE
SURFACE...VERY EARLY ON THE RUC WAS CATCHING WELL WITH OVERALL THE
ECMWF DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE/RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN RETURNS/CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST DEPICTED. DAY
SHIFT CORRECTLY DIAGNOSED THIS PER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/LIFT IN
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB CIRCULATION. PROBLEM HAS BEEN DRY
LOWERS SHOWN IN SOUNDINGS AND CONFIRMED BY LARGE T/TD DEPRESSIONS.
MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS AS WELL YESTERDAY. HAVE SEEN LITTLE IF ANY
GROUND TRUTH IN THE AREA. DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN RIGHT TO SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS...AND REVISIT THIS AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE.
NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WINDS. 00Z MODELS WERE BRINGING IN A SHORT BURST
OF WINDS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
FRONT BLASTED THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED HERE WITH THE
WINDS ALREADY DECREASING AND LOSING THERE GUSTINESS. ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES HAVE GONE THROUGH OR ARE
GOING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. VWPS SHOW NOTHING ABOVE 35 KNOTS THE
COLUMN RIGHT NOW. 06Z GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED WINDS AS WELL. SO
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NOW ONTO THE PRECIPITATION. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE JET
POSITION BUT ALL PUT THE AREA IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET
MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THIS JET SEGMENT MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. BY 18Z THE AREA IS IN
UPSLOPE THROUGH 700 MB DUE TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB
LOW AND THIS UPSLOPE DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PLUS TQ INDEX WOULD INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD CAUSE INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORM...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...AND THE
LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT IS BETTER TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SO PUT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF FOR THE
DAY. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA SPREADS SLOWLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WILL STATE BELOW...MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE SREF QPF/PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. KEPT PHASE AS RAIN
SINCE BELIEVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN
THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WENT BELOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MODEL OUTPUT
IS COMING INTO ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RATHER LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT. TO GO INTO A FULL DISCUSSION ON MODEL DIFFERENCES AND TRENDS
WOULD REQUIRE A NOVEL. MODELS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT BUT STILL
DIFFERENCES OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD ON SPEED AND POSITION OF THE
700-500 MB CIRCULATIONS. GEFS AND CLUSTERING OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER AND AT
TIME FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE CIRCULATION WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN
ON THE SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH SIDE. WHAT TENDED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GEFS OUTPUT WAS THE SREF.
QPF THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE SREF WAS SIMILAR IN POSITION
TO WHAT HPC WAS DEPICTING. SO FOR THE PERIOD WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
THE SREF/GEFS OUTPUT IN ITS PROGRESSION AND QPF LOCATION. SO
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST.
GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION MAY START DECREASING SOME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
UNCERTAINTY ON BEHAVIOR OF SYSTEM/RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE CHOSE TO
GO IN THE MIDDLE GROUND OF AMOUNTS. WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BELIEVE
DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LIQUID. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND POSSIBLE THAT
WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IF WETTER SOLUTIONS
PAN OUT.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT CEILINGS COULD
LOWER TO JUST ABOVE MVRR. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z. COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AT
BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
436 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS/PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY TODAY
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THIS LATER PROBLEM WILL DEPEND ON THE BEHAVIOR OF DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWING CONTINUING TO SHOW
AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
IN FACT FLOW OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
OF COURSE MAJOR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS WHAT THE UPPER LOW IS GOING
TO DO. CURRENTLY SOUTHERN END OF A COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH IS
STARTING TO SAG SOUTH AND DEVELOP INTO THE LOW OF INTEREST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
DEFINITELY SUPPORT THIS CONTINUING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO MUCH
COOLER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...THE NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
BEST ON THE POSITION OF FEATURES AND THE HEIGHT FIELD. AT THE
SURFACE...VERY EARLY ON THE RUC WAS CATCHING WELL WITH OVERALL THE
ECMWF DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION.
SATELLITE/RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN RETURNS/CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST DEPICTED. DAY
SHIFT CORRECTLY DIAGNOSED THIS PER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/LIFT IN
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB CIRCULATION. PROBLEM HAS BEEN DRY
LOWERS SHOWN IN SOUNDINGS AND CONFIRMED BY LARGE T/TD DEPRESSIONS.
MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS AS WELL YESTERDAY. HAVE SEEN LITTLE IF ANY
GROUND TRUTH IN THE AREA. DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN RIGHT TO SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS...AND REVISIT THIS AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE.
NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WINDS. 00Z MODELS WERE BRINGING IN A SHORT BURST
OF WINDS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
FRONT BLASTED THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED HERE WITH THE
WINDS ALREADY DECREASING AND LOSING THERE GUSTINESS. ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES HAVE GONE THROUGH OR ARE
GOING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. VWPS SHOW NOTHING ABOVE 35 KNOTS THE
COLUMN RIGHT NOW. 06Z GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED WINDS AS WELL. SO
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NOW ONTO THE PRECIPITATION. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE JET
POSITION BUT ALL PUT THE AREA IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET
MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THIS JET SEGMENT MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. BY 18Z THE AREA IS IN
UPSLOPE THROUGH 700 MB DUE TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF 700 MB
LOW AND THIS UPSLOPE DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PLUS TQ INDEX WOULD INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD CAUSE INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORM...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...AND THE
LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT IS BETTER TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SO PUT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF FOR THE
DAY. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA SPREADS SLOWLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WILL STATE BELOW...MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE SREF QPF/PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. KEPT PHASE AS RAIN
SINCE BELIEVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN
THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WENT BELOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MODEL OUTPUT
IS COMING INTO ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RATHER LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT. TO GO INTO A FULL DISCUSSION ON MODEL DIFFERENCES AND TRENDS
WOULD REQUIRE A NOVEL. MODELS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT BUT STILL
DIFFERENCES OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD ON SPEED AND POSITION OF THE
700-500 MB CIRCULATIONS. GEFS AND CLUSTERING OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORTS A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER AND AT
TIME FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE CIRCULATION WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN
ON THE SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH SIDE. WHAT TENDED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GEFS OUTPUT WAS THE SREF.
QPF THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE SREF WAS SIMILAR IN POSITION
TO WHAT HPC WAS DEPICTING. SO FOR THE PERIOD WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
THE SREF/GEFS OUTPUT IN ITS PROGRESSION AND QPF LOCATION. SO
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST.
GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION MAY START DECREASING SOME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
UNCERTAINTY ON BEHAVIOR OF SYSTEM/RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE CHOSE TO
GO IN THE MIDDLE GROUND OF AMOUNTS. WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BELIEVE
DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LIQUID. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND POSSIBLE THAT
WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IF WETTER SOLUTIONS
PAN OUT.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER WITH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. NOW APPEARS STRONGER
WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12-13Z. ALSO APPEARS CIGS WILL
REMAIN JUST INTO VFR. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS ISSUANCE. WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO DECREASE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...FOLTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1241 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
PRIMARY UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST SKY/TEMP/DEW POINT GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO TIER
OF COUNTIES AS WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY DIMINISH. ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
ADDING DIURNAL ISOLATED T AND -SHRA TO MY ERN ZONES BASED ON
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY CONFIRMING SPC RUC INSTABILITY TRENDS AND
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
MAIN CHANGE OVER THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO ADD LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COLORADO AND NEBRASKA ZONES FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE REASONING IS BASED MUCH ON THE PROGGED
DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LVL FRONT-G COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SNDG PROFILES SUGGEST SHRA/FZRA
FOR THESE ZONES GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED IN THE
COLUMN. THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD END NORTH TO SOUTH BY
MID-MORNING TOMORROW. WIND-WISE THE CURRENT LIGHT AND VAR WINDS
WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS AND
ARE NOT EXPECT TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW
WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS
AT 15 TO 25 MPH. NO PRECIP CHANCES WERE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT TUE MAR 20 2012
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER WITH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. NOW APPEARS STRONGER
WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12-13Z. ALSO APPEARS CIGS WILL
REMAIN JUST INTO VFR. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS ISSUANCE. WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO DECREASE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FOLTZ
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....024
AVIATION...FOLTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1056 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
PRIMARY UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST SKY/TEMP/DEW POINT GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO TIER
OF COUNTIES AS WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY DIMINISH. ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
ADDING DIURNAL ISOLATED T AND -SHRA TO MY ERN ZONES BASED ON
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY CONFIRMING SPC RUC INSTABILITY TRENDS AND
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
MAIN CHANGE OVER THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO ADD LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COLORADO AND NEBRASKA ZONES FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE REASONING IS BASED MUCH ON THE PROGGED
DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LVL FRONT-G COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SNDG PROFILES SUGGEST SHRA/FZRA
FOR THESE ZONES GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED IN THE
COLUMN. THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD END NORTH TO SOUTH BY
MID-MORNING TOMORROW. WIND-WISE THE CURRENT LIGHT AND VAR WINDS
WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS AND
ARE NOT EXPECT TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW
WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS
AT 15 TO 25 MPH. NO PRECIP CHANCES WERE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO
FOCUS ON UPPER LOW AND HOW THE TRACK/TIMING WILL AFFECT TEMPS AND
PRECIP OVER OUR CWA. CLOSED LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. LATEST MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON GENERAL TRACK OF UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE OK/KS BORDER BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS OUR CWA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR PRECIP AS A
BAND OF PRECIP FORMS ON THE NW QUAD OF THE H5/H7 LOW AND PUSHES
NORTH TOWARDS NW KS. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL
OF PRECIP...SO I ADDED 20/30 POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER 06Z. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
COULDN`T BE RULED OUT BEFORE SUNRISE.
BETTER CHANCES OVERSPREAD THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LOW SHIFT NORTH. I BUMPED POPS ACROSS SE PART OF THE CWA TO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THESE PERIODS WHERE THERE IS GOOD OVERLAP
BETWEEN MODEL QPF AND PROJECTED LIFT/MOISTURE. THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND POSITION OF
DRY SLOT BY THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...I ADJUSTED POPS THURSDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PROJECTED DRY SLOT POSITION IN THE EAST BY
LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CATEGORY. I WAS NOT COMFORTABLE PULLING OR
RAISING POPS BEYOND THE 20/40 RANGE THURSDAY CONSIDERING THE POOR
PERFORMANCE OF GUIDANCE ON CLOSED SYSTEMS FOR OUR AREA.
I AM NOT CONFIDENT IN HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP BOTH DAYS.
OVERALL I TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...BUT KEPT THE CWA GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. IT SHOULD BE COOLER FOR LOCATIONS WITH
PRECIP/THICK CLOUD COVER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN ESTABLISHES
ITSELF BY THIS WEEKEND WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GFS
AND GEFS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE...WHICH IS
UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING THE WAY THESE PATTERN USUALLY EVOLVE OVER
THE CENTRAL US. GUIDANCE IN THE PAST TENDS TO BE TOO QUICK TO MOVE
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOWS EASTWARD...WHICH IS LIKELY THE CASE WITH THE
GFS. ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE STRONG RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE RESULT OF A SLOWER SOLUTION WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THESE PERIODS. I TRENDED TEMPS UP
SAT/SUN/MON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...NEAR 80F ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL...WITH A STRETCH OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD LATE LAST
WEEK AND THIS PAST WEEKEND CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER WITH
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. NOW APPEARS STRONGER
WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12-13Z. ALSO APPEARS CIGS WILL
REMAIN JUST INTO VFR. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS ISSUANCE. WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO DECREASE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FOLTZ
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...FOLTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1025 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
RECORD WARMTH WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL
MORE LIKE EARLY JUNE THAN MID MARCH. WET WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
TWEAK POPS TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONT TO MOVE SLOWLY S FM CENTRAL LAKE ERIE.
DETERMINISTIC HI RES MODELS OFFER A WIDE ENVELOPE OF
POSSIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS OVER WRN PA...WHILE THE OTHER HI RES
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ISOLD ACTIVITY AT BEST. AGREE WITH THE
LATTER...WHICH MATCHES ARE ONGOING FORECAST. A POCKET OF ENERGY
MOVING SLOWLY WWRD ALOFT INTO OUR FAR ERN AREAS...FEEL THE
GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE E OF I-79 AND THE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY.
H8 TEMPS INCREASE 2C OVER MONDAY`S VALUES...WHICH CORRELATES INTO
ABOUT A 4F BUMP IN MAXT. AGAIN THIS PUTS US IN RECORD TERRITORY. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR BENCHMARKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE JUNE-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EAST FROM THE MS
VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...BUT A GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
EASTWARD MOVING LOW.
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
VFR...UNLESS A AIRPORT EXPERIENCES A SCATTERED STORM. AS OF
NOW...PROB IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR WEATHER IS FORESEEN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY MARCH 20.
PITTSBURGH PA.........79 SET IN 1948.
DUBOIS PA.............73 SET IN 1976.
MORGANTOWN WV.........79 SET IN 1984.
WHEELING WV...........69 SET IN 1952.
ZANESVILLE OH.........76 SET IN 1976.
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH....73 SET IN 2003.
PITTSBURGHS HIGH OF 75 ON MARCH 19 EXTENDS THE STRING OF
CONSECUTIVE MARCH DAYS WITH HIGHS OF 70 PLUS...TO SEVEN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
AVIATION...98
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
906 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND THE
NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT HAS BEEN CANCELLED. PATCHY DENSE FOG
COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WESTERN SHORE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.
ORIGINAL MORNING DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WAS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MUCH OF CENTRAL
MARYLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
LEVELS WERE ALREADY FAIRLY MOIST WITH INFLUENCE FROM LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW. FOLLOWING RUC/HRRR GUIDANCE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL HAVE POPS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THAT TIME.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST IS POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION. MODELS INDICATE MARINE LAYER GETTING A BETTER PUSH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. STILL HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND ALSO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
ALREADY OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...SO HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING BOTH COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG. ABOVE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE IT OUT
EITHER GIVEN MARINE LAYER INTRUSION AND SEVERAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATING DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE
GRIDS ATTM.
BEYOND THIS MORNING...CWA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS INDICATE A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS MAIN IMPACT MAY BE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA. BUT NAM/GFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT MAY BE SHOWERS
FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE BAY PERHAPS ALONG A LINGERING CONVERGENT
AXIS. EITHER WAY...WILL RAMP POPS BACK UP LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHER AWAY FROM INFLUENCE OF THE
MARINE LAYER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY/CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS COULD PRODUCE SOME
HAIL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE CWA THIS EVENING. MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY
RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE BLOCKING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH KINKS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH AND CONVERGENCE AREAS TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLC. ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL
A RELATIVE UPPER LOW CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
/CENTERED OVER THE TIDEWATER REGION/. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUNDS THE
WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH...BATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE WED MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN TIER COUNTIES ON WED...BUT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY TO DRIFT FURTHER NORTH BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN GET REPOSITIONED OVERNIGHT WED
INTO THU...AS THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. A STRONG NRN STREAM UPPER JET
STATIONED EAST-TO-WEST OVER SRN CANADA ON THU WILL CAUSE THE SRN
PLAINS LOW TO BEGIN MOVING DUE EAST. THIS WON/T LAST LONG...AS THE
JET BEGINS TO PIVOT NW-SE...ALLOWING THE LOW TO DRIFT NEWD INTO THE
OHIO VLY AND CAUSING A FORCED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE APLCNS. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE WARMTH FOR THE ERN SEABOARD AND A RETURN TO NEAR 80 HIGHS
ON THU AND FRI FOR THE MID ATLC. EACH DAY MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VERY POORLY FORCED AND MAINLY A CONTINUING EFFECT
OF THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE.
A FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FROM LONG RANGE MEMBERS
THAT BEGIN THE TREK OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE REGION ON SAT...MOVING
OVER THE MID-ATLC ON SUN AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY MON. MOVEMENT OF
UPPER LOWS HOWEVER ARE TYPICALLY CHALLENGING BECAUSE THEY ARE
DEPENDENT ON THEIR TELECONNECTIONS W/ THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT
SURROUND THEM. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN
THE UPPER LOW FAIRLY STEADILY OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...LEADING
TO COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLC SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT LOW CIGS IN STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY LOW VSBYS IN FOG THIS MORNING. DEGRADATION HAS BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN SOME PAST RECENT NIGHTS /SAVE FOR MRB WHICH HAS
ALREADY FOGGED UP AFTER LAST EVENING/S RAIN AND THEN BRIEF
CLEARING/...BUT THERE/S GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/GFS/HRRR/RUC IN AT
LEAST IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH 14Z-15Z AT THE HUBS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT CHO AND IF IT
WERE TO HAPPEN ONSET WOULD BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AFTER CONDITIONS
IMPROVE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL SET UP
SO NO EXPLICIT MENTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MORE MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG OCCURRING
TONIGHT. ONSET COULD BE A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT WE SEE EARLY
THIS MORNING.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON
WED FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
START THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH FURTHER OFF THE
COAST THU/FRI AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK. PERIODS OF LIGHT ELY WINDS ON WED...THEN CHANGING TO SLY ON
THU AND SWLY ON FRI. MORE ACTIVITY WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SAT/SUN INTO EARLY MON.
&&
.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE FOG OVER/NEAR THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
REDUCE TO VSBYS TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
EASTERLY FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS TO PREVAIL TODAY/TONIGHT.
MARINE LAYER MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW VSBYS IN FOG
TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SLOWLY FROM THU INTO FRI. AN UPPER LOW BRING MORE
SCATTERED RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
BUT LOW-END SCA OR LESS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...CJL/BPP
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BPP/GMS
MARINE...BPP/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
632 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE THE NORTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
ORIGINAL MORNING DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WAS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MUCH OF CENTRAL
MARYLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
LEVELS WERE ALREADY FAIRLY MOIST WITH INFLUENCE FROM LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW. FOLLOWING RUC/HRRR GUIDANCE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL HAVE POPS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THAT TIME.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST IS POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION. MODELS INDICATE MARINE LAYER GETTING A BETTER PUSH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. STILL HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND ALSO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
ALREADY OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...SO HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING BOTH COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG. ABOVE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE IT OUT
EITHER GIVEN MARINE LAYER INTRUSION AND SEVERAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATING DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE
GRIDS ATTM.
BEYOND THIS MORNING...CWA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS INDICATE A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS MAIN IMPACT MAY BE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA. BUT NAM/GFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT MAY BE SHOWERS
FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE BAY PERHAPS ALONG A LINGERING CONVERGENT
AXIS. EITHER WAY...WILL RAMP POPS BACK UP LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHER AWAY FROM INFLUENCE OF THE
MARINE LAYER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY/CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS COULD PRODUCE SOME
HAIL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE CWA THIS EVENING. MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY
RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE BLOCKING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH KINKS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH AND CONVERGENCE AREAS TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLC. ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL
A RELATIVE UPPER LOW CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
/CENTERED OVER THE TIDEWATER REGION/. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUNDS THE
WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH...BATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE WED MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN TIER COUNTIES ON WED...BUT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY TO DRIFT FURTHER NORTH BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN GET REPOSITIONED OVERNIGHT WED
INTO THU...AS THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. A STRONG NRN STREAM UPPER JET
STATIONED EAST-TO-WEST OVER SRN CANADA ON THU WILL CAUSE THE SRN
PLAINS LOW TO BEGIN MOVING DUE EAST. THIS WON/T LAST LONG...AS THE
JET BEGINS TO PIVOT NW-SE...ALLOWING THE LOW TO DRIFT NEWD INTO THE
OHIO VLY AND CAUSING A FORCED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE APLCNS. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE WARMTH FOR THE ERN SEABOARD AND A RETURN TO NEAR 80 HIGHS
ON THU AND FRI FOR THE MID ATLC. EACH DAY MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VERY POORLY FORCED AND MAINLY A CONTINUING EFFECT
OF THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE.
A FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FROM LONG RANGE MEMBERS
THAT BEGIN THE TREK OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE REGION ON SAT...MOVING
OVER THE MID-ATLC ON SUN AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY MON. MOVEMENT OF
UPPER LOWS HOWEVER ARE TYPICALLY CHALLENGING BECAUSE THEY ARE
DEPENDENT ON THEIR TELECONNECTIONS W/ THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT
SURROUND THEM. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN
THE UPPER LOW FAIRLY STEADILY OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...LEADING
TO COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLC SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT LOW CIGS IN STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY LOW VSBYS IN FOG THIS MORNING. DEGRADATION HAS BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN SOME PAST RECENT NIGHTS /SAVE FOR MRB WHICH HAS
ALREADY FOGGED UP AFTER LAST EVENING/S RAIN AND THEN BRIEF
CLEARING/...BUT THERE/S GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/GFS/HRRR/RUC IN AT
LEAST IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH 14Z-15Z AT THE HUBS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT CHO AND IF IT
WERE TO HAPPEN ONSET WOULD BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AFTER CONDITIONS
IMPROVE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL SET UP
SO NO EXPLICIT MENTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MORE MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG OCCURRING
TONIGHT. ONSET COULD BE A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT WE SEE EARLY
THIS MORNING.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON
WED FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
START THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH FURTHER OFF THE
COAST THU/FRI AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK. PERIODS OF LIGHT ELY WINDS ON WED...THEN CHANGING TO SLY ON
THU AND SWLY ON FRI. MORE ACTIVITY WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SAT/SUN INTO EARLY MON.
&&
.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE FOG OVER/NEAR THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
REDUCE TO VSBYS TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
EASTERLY FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS TO PREVAIL TODAY/TONIGHT.
MARINE LAYER MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW VSBYS IN FOG
TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SLOWLY FROM THU INTO FRI. AN UPPER LOW BRING MORE
SCATTERED RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
BUT LOW-END SCA OR LESS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ050-051-
055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BPP/GMS
MARINE...BPP/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
535 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOWER SOUTHERN MD/KING GEORGE
CO. VA. OBS HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THIS AREA
INCLUDING NHK AND DON/T EXPECT ANY IMPROVEMENT UNTIL MID
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OBS/TRENDS FURTHER
NORTHWEST IN CASE EXPANSION IS NEEDED.
PREV...
WEAK DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WAS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MUCH OF CENTRAL
MARYLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
LEVELS WERE ALREADY FAIRLY MOIST WITH INFLUENCE FROM LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW. FOLLOWING RUC/HRRR GUIDANCE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL HAVE POPS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THAT TIME.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST IS POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION. MODELS INDICATE MARINE LAYER GETTING A BETTER PUSH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. STILL HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND ALSO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
ALREADY OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...SO HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING BOTH COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG. ABOVE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE IT OUT
EITHER GIVEN MARINE LAYER INTRUSION AND SEVERAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATING DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE
GRIDS ATTM.
BEYOND THIS MORNING...CWA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS INDICATE A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS MAIN IMPACT MAY BE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA. BUT NAM/GFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT MAY BE SHOWERS
FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE BAY PERHAPS ALONG A LINGERING CONVERGENT
AXIS. EITHER WAY...WILL RAMP POPS BACK UP LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHER AWAY FROM INFLUENCE OF THE
MARINE LAYER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY/CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS COULD PRODUCE SOME
HAIL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE CWA THIS EVENING. MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY
RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE BLOCKING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH KINKS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH AND CONVERGENCE AREAS TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLC. ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL
A RELATIVE UPPER LOW CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
/CENTERED OVER THE TIDEWATER REGION/. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUNDS THE
WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH...BATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE WED MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN TIER COUNTIES ON WED...BUT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY TO DRIFT FURTHER NORTH BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN GET REPOSITIONED OVERNIGHT WED
INTO THU...AS THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. A STRONG NRN STREAM UPPER JET
STATIONED EAST-TO-WEST OVER SRN CANADA ON THU WILL CAUSE THE SRN
PLAINS LOW TO BEGIN MOVING DUE EAST. THIS WON/T LAST LONG...AS THE
JET BEGINS TO PIVOT NW-SE...ALLOWING THE LOW TO DRIFT NEWD INTO THE
OHIO VLY AND CAUSING A FORCED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE APLCNS. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE WARMTH FOR THE ERN SEABOARD AND A RETURN TO NEAR 80 HIGHS
ON THU AND FRI FOR THE MID ATLC. EACH DAY MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VERY POORLY FORCED AND MAINLY A CONTINUING EFFECT
OF THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE.
A FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FROM LONG RANGE MEMBERS
THAT BEGIN THE TREK OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE REGION ON SAT...MOVING
OVER THE MID-ATLC ON SUN AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY MON. MOVEMENT OF
UPPER LOWS HOWEVER ARE TYPICALLY CHALLENGING BECAUSE THEY ARE
DEPENDENT ON THEIR TELECONNECTIONS W/ THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT
SURROUND THEM. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN
THE UPPER LOW FAIRLY STEADILY OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...LEADING
TO COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLC SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT LOW CIGS IN STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY LOW VSBYS IN FOG THIS MORNING. DEGRADATION HAS BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN SOME PAST RECENT NIGHTS /SAVE FOR MRB WHICH HAS
ALREADY FOGGED UP AFTER LAST EVENING/S RAIN AND THEN BRIEF
CLEARING/...BUT THERE/S GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/GFS/HRRR/RUC IN AT
LEAST IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH 14Z-15Z AT THE HUBS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT CHO AND IF IT
WERE TO HAPPEN ONSET WOULD BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AFTER CONDITIONS
IMPROVE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL SET UP
SO NO EXPLICIT MENTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MORE MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG OCCURRING
TONIGHT. ONSET COULD BE A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT WE SEE EARLY
THIS MORNING.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON
WED FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
START THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH FURTHER OFF THE
COAST THU/FRI AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK. PERIODS OF LIGHT ELY WINDS ON WED...THEN CHANGING TO SLY ON
THU AND SWLY ON FRI. MORE ACTIVITY WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SAT/SUN INTO EARLY MON.
&&
.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE FOG OVER/NEAR THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
REDUCE TO VSBYS TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
EASTERLY FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS TO PREVAIL TODAY/TONIGHT.
MARINE LAYER MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW VSBYS IN FOG
TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SLOWLY FROM THU INTO FRI. AN UPPER LOW BRING MORE
SCATTERED RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
BUT LOW-END SCA OR LESS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BPP/GMS
MARINE...BPP/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK DISTURBANCE/TROUGH WAS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MUCH OF CENTRAL
MARYLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
LEVELS WERE ALREADY FAIRLY MOIST WITH INFLUENCE FROM LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW. FOLLOWING RUC/HRRR GUIDANCE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL HAVE POPS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THAT TIME.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST IS POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION. MODELS INDICATE MARINE LAYER GETTING A BETTER PUSH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. STILL HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND ALSO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
ALREADY OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...SO HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING BOTH COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG. ABOVE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE IT OUT
EITHER GIVEN MARINE LAYER INTRUSION AND SEVERAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATING DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE
GRIDS ATTM.
BEYOND THIS MORNING...CWA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS INDICATE A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS MAIN IMPACT MAY BE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA. BUT NAM/GFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT MAY BE SHOWERS
FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE BAY PERHAPS ALONG A LINGERING CONVERGENT
AXIS. EITHER WAY...WILL RAMP POPS BACK UP LATER IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHER AWAY FROM INFLUENCE OF THE
MARINE LAYER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY/CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS COULD PRODUCE SOME
HAIL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE CWA THIS EVENING. MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY
RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE BLOCKING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH KINKS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH AND CONVERGENCE AREAS TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLC. ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL
A RELATIVE UPPER LOW CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
/CENTERED OVER THE TIDEWATER REGION/. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUNDS THE
WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH...BATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE WED MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN TIER COUNTIES ON WED...BUT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY TO DRIFT FURTHER NORTH BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN GET REPOSITIONED OVERNIGHT WED
INTO THU...AS THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. A STRONG NRN STREAM UPPER JET
STATIONED EAST-TO-WEST OVER SRN CANADA ON THU WILL CAUSE THE SRN
PLAINS LOW TO BEGIN MOVING DUE EAST. THIS WON/T LAST LONG...AS THE
JET BEGINS TO PIVOT NW-SE...ALLOWING THE LOW TO DRIFT NEWD INTO THE
OHIO VLY AND CAUSING A FORCED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE APLCNS. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE WARMTH FOR THE ERN SEABOARD AND A RETURN TO NEAR 80 HIGHS
ON THU AND FRI FOR THE MID ATLC. EACH DAY MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VERY POORLY FORCED AND MAINLY A CONTINUING EFFECT
OF THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE.
A FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FROM LONG RANGE MEMBERS
THAT BEGIN THE TREK OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE REGION ON SAT...MOVING
OVER THE MID-ATLC ON SUN AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY MON. MOVEMENT OF
UPPER LOWS HOWEVER ARE TYPICALLY CHALLENGING BECAUSE THEY ARE
DEPENDENT ON THEIR TELECONNECTIONS W/ THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT
SURROUND THEM. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN
THE UPPER LOW FAIRLY STEADILY OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...LEADING
TO COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLC SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT LOW CIGS IN STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY LOW VSBYS IN FOG THIS MORNING. DEGRADATION HAS BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN SOME PAST RECENT NIGHTS /SAVE FOR MRB WHICH HAS
ALREADY FOGGED UP AFTER LAST EVENING/S RAIN AND THEN BRIEF
CLEARING/...BUT THERE/S GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/GFS/HRRR/RUC IN AT
LEAST IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH 14Z-15Z AT THE HUBS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT CHO AND IF IT
WERE TO HAPPEN ONSET WOULD BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AFTER CONDITIONS
IMPROVE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL SET UP
SO NO EXPLICIT MENTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MORE MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG OCCURRING
TONIGHT. ONSET COULD BE A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT WE SEE EARLY
THIS MORNING.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON
WED FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
START THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH FURTHER OFF THE
COAST THU/FRI AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK. PERIODS OF LIGHT ELY WINDS ON WED...THEN CHANGING TO SLY ON
THU AND SWLY ON FRI. MORE ACTIVITY WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SAT/SUN INTO EARLY MON.
&&
.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE FOG OVER/NEAR THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
REDUCE TO VSBYS TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
EASTERLY FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS TO PREVAIL TODAY/TONIGHT.
MARINE LAYER MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW VSBYS IN FOG
TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SLOWLY FROM THU INTO FRI. AN UPPER LOW BRING MORE
SCATTERED RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
BUT LOW-END SCA OR LESS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BPP/GMS
MARINE...BPP/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
REMOVED PCPN CHANCES FOR ALL EXCEPT THE FAR WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LACK OF A TRIGGERING AND FOCUSING MECHANISM IS THE REASON. 00Z KGRB
SOUNDING IS RELATIVELY STABLE AS WELL AND THIS AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA. THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL STAY OFF TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH
A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES
AND A RIDGE FROM THE GULF INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND NRN
ONTARIO RESULTING IN SSW FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. CAPPING EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AND
FCST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN WI LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THE SHRTWV COMBINED WITH
MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER SE WI AND MORE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN WI. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS LOCATED OVER NE IA INTO SE MN.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON MIXING HAS AGAIN PUSHED
TEMPS AGAIN TO RECORD HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
AS THE WI SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NORTH EXPECT THE ISOLD CONVECTION OVER
NRN WI TO ALSO MOVE INTO SRN UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH COOLING LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH.
STRONGER SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO SASK AND
MANITOBA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE
FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER THE
STRONGER LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET MOVING INTO N ONTARIO WILL REMAIN WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH CONTINUED SSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND
THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...WEAK
SHORTWAVES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
INTO MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. AS IS TYPICAL WITH WARM
SEASON CONVECTION...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING/POSITION OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES. SO...THE FCST CONTINUES TO CARRY CHANCE POPS LOWER END
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE WEST.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN RECORD TERRITORY FOR HIGH OVERNIGHT MINS AND
MAX READINGS TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS REACHING THE MID
70S. WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
OUR STAGNANT 500MB WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE...WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
500MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
SUPPRESSED...BUT STILL OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TAKING A LOOK CLOSER TO THE SFC...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE MAIN SFC LOWS ACROSS FAR NE MANITOBA AND IA WILL
SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 21-00Z WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN/WASH OUT TO OUR EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT MORE. IT
WILL HAVE ASSISTANCE FROM THE EXITING 300MB JET...BUT THIS WILL
MAINLY BE ACROSS W TO NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI...AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
DID NOT GO WITH HIGH POPS YET...DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY AND
DIMINISHED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE A
HUGE COOL DOWN IS NOT EXPECTED...850MB TEMPS WILL STILL FALL FROM
AROUND 11C TO NEAR 8C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE 500MB LOW...CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION
TODAY WILL BE OVER N TX AT 00Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS CUT OFF LOW TO
EJECT NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...PUSHING ACROSS E KS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND MO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
JUST HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THIS TRACK HAS ON OUR WEATHER IS STILL
IN QUESTION...AS THE 500MB LOW SLIPS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
SATURDAY /AND SFC LOW MOVES AS FAR NORTH AS SCENTRAL WI AT 00Z
SATURDAY/...BEFORE FURTHER EXITING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH A REBOUNDING RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE ON MUCH
NEEDED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.
EVEN WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE CWA...NE WINDS WILL
PULL COOLER AIR DOWN FROM ONTARIO. THE 19/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF EVEN
INDICATES 850MB TEMPS OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AROUND 0C AT 06Z
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMER 19/06Z RUN OF THE GFS IS STILL AROUND
4C. EITHER WAY...LOOK FOR WAA ON WEAK S-SW WINDS AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT CMX AND IWD. S-SE
WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT MAY CAUSE VSBYS AT SAW TO DROP TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THOUGH AS PAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS HAVE SEEN NO FOG. USUALLY WHEN THE WIND IS SOUTH AND
THERE IS FOG IN LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN ESCANABA...CIGS AND VIS COME
DOWN AT SAW. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. DID PUT IN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER IWD AND CMX AS
FRONTAL BAND GETS CLOSER TO THAT AREA. ALSO PLACED -SHRA IN IWD TAF
EARLY IN THE DAY FOR PRECIP MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WI. FURTHER EAST...CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SHOWERS IS LOWER AND
DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. FRONT GETS NEAR THE AREA. SAW BEING
FURTHER EAST WILL SEE LLWS TUE NIGHT AS WELL. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DUE TO THE SUMMER TYPE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...WINDS AS THE SURFACE OF THE LAKE REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO
THE MARINE LAYER...ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER ARE MUCH
STRONGER. IN ADDITION...DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW...WINDS
ACROSS THE WEST EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY AS IS TYPICAL DURING THE
SPRING WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY
WED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN ONCE AGAIN SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. OTHER THAN
TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
849 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
CONTINUING TO UPDATE POPS AS SHOWERS JUST REFUSE TO FORM OVER OUR
AREA. HAVE CUT BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT ALLOWED
POPS TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AS THE RAIN BAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO
ROTATES NORTHEAST. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z...SO HAVE KEPT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR LATE TONIGHT.
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF THE EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT THE NEXT BAND
OF PRECIP TO AFFECT THE AREA IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY DOWN IN
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. SHORT RANGE MODELS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
RUC AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER 06Z SO HAVE BASICALLY LEFT THE PRECIP TRENDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT UNTOUCHED.
CARNEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
(TONIGHT)
THE DEEP UPPER LOW HAS BEEN MEANDERING NNEWD TODAY AND PROFILER AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE IT IS OVER EXTREME SW OK AT MID
AFTERNOON. BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY
THROUGH MID MO TODAY PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. THE PRECIPITATION HASNT MADE ANY IN-ROADS
FURTHER EAST. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CHUG NNEWD TONIGHT MOVING TO NEAR THE
CENTRAL OK/KS BORDER BY 12Z. IN THE PROCESS...A VORT LOBE WILL
ROTATE NNEWD INTO THE AREA...AND A MUCH LARGER AND MORE SOLID BAND
OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM SRN KS THROUGH SW MO INTO
AR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
BAND. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS IN A SMALL PORTION
OF CENTRAL MO. THE PERSIST SHOWERS/RAIN LAST NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING GENERATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS MONITEAU COUNTY WHERE SOME MINOR FLOODING
HAS BEEN REPORTED. GIVEN THIS ONGOING FLOODING AND THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT...I HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH...THINKING THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL POTENTIALLY AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING PROBLEMS.
GLASS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
THAT DEVELOPED TONIGHT...WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH MAIN
UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH OR SO OF PCPN WITH THIS
ROUND. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH SYSTEM EXITING...SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN ON
THURSDAY AS THE RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...THEN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
DRY AND MILDER WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WARMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND REACH ALL OF THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND OF RAIN. INITIALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AS THE PCPN SPREADS
EWD.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
REACH KSTL WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND OF RAIN. INITIALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AS THE PCPN SPREADS EWD.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BOONE MO-COLE MO-
MONITEAU MO.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
653 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF THE EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT THE NEXT BAND
OF PRECIP TO AFFECT THE AREA IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY DOWN IN
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. SHORT RANGE MODELS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
RUC AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER 06Z SO HAVE BASICALLY LEFT THE PRECIP TRENDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT UNTOUCHED.
CARNEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
(TONIGHT)
THE DEEP UPPER LOW HAS BEEN MEANDERING NNEWD TODAY AND PROFILER AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE IT IS OVER EXTREME SW OK AT MID
AFTERNOON. BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY
THROUGH MID MO TODAY PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. THE PRECIPITATION HASNT MADE ANY IN-ROADS
FURTHER EAST. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CHUG NNEWD TONIGHT MOVING TO NEAR THE
CENTRAL OK/KS BORDER BY 12Z. IN THE PROCESS...A VORT LOBE WILL
ROTATE NNEWD INTO THE AREA...AND A MUCH LARGER AND MORE SOLID BAND
OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM SRN KS THROUGH SW MO INTO
AR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
BAND. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS IN A SMALL PORTION
OF CENTRAL MO. THE PERSIST SHOWERS/RAIN LAST NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING GENERATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS MONITEAU COUNTY WHERE SOME MINOR FLOODING
HAS BEEN REPORTED. GIVEN THIS ONGOING FLOODING AND THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT...I HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH...THINKING THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL POTENTIALLY AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING PROBLEMS.
GLASS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
THAT DEVELOPED TONIGHT...WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH MAIN
UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH OR SO OF PCPN WITH THIS
ROUND. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH SYSTEM EXITING...SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN ON
THURSDAY AS THE RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...THEN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
DRY AND MILDER WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WARMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND REACH ALL OF THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND OF RAIN. INITIALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AS THE PCPN SPREADS
EWD.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
REACH KSTL WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND OF RAIN. INITIALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AS THE PCPN SPREADS EWD.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BOONE MO-COLE MO-
MONITEAU MO.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012
UPDATE TO AVIATION
.UPDATE...
WINTER STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH DEEPER INTO SASKATCHEWAN THIS
EVENING WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK INTO THE REGION. ENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AND WITH THE
SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
CURRENT RUC13 SHOWING DECENT H700 WINDS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUES...WITH THESE WINDS
STAYING UP ACROSS FRONT RANGE AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS DO NOT THINK
THAT TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT TOO MUCH EVEN WITH SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED. SHELTERED AREAS WILL THOUGH...AND THIS WILL MEAN THAT
VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE MAY RAD
COOL THEMSELVES INTO SINGLE DIGITS OR EVEN WELL BELOW ZERO IF
ENOUGH CLEARING DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
IN THAT PART OF THE TREASURE STATE. DUE TO THE RECENT MOISTURE AND
THE CLEARING COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG MAYBE POSSIBLE
ACROSS VALLEYS OF SW MONTANA WITH THE RUC12 HIGHLIGHTING THIS
THREAT CLOSER TO WYS AND VALLEYS JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MADISON COUNTY. --SCHOTT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 645 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012/
.UPDATE...
AFTER CALLS TO LOCAL OFFICIALS ACROSS THE BLIZZARD WARNING
AREA...CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE. WITH THIS
SAID...LOCAL OFFICIAL REPORT THAT POWER IS STILL OUT IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AROUND BLAINE COUNTY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL
BE A MAJOR CONCERN AS THE LAST OF THE SNOW WRAPS UP ACROSS BLAINE
AND FERGUS COUNTY THIS EVENING. BLAINE COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES ACROSS THE COUNTY. CANCELLED
OR ENDED ALL THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS BUT HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTY WHERE BOTH LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. --SCHOTT
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH OVERNIGHT (10 TO 20 KT) TO LIKELY PREVENT FOG
FORMATION AT THE PLAINS TERMINALS (KCTB KHVR KGTF KLWT)...BUT ANY
DROP-OFF IN WINDS COULD CAUSE PATCHY FOG TO FORM. WINDS MAY DROP
OFF ENOUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST MONTANA VALLEYS (KHLN KBZN) TO ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO FORM...BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS MAY PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FORMATION. WILL MENTION VCFG FOR NOW AND MONITOR THE
SITUATION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AS WELL AS GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS. WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT COULD GUST INTO THE 55
TO 65 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KT
FARTHER OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. COULSTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 245 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012/
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...LARGE WINTER WEATHER
SYSTEM SHOWING SOME INITIAL SIGNS OF EASING UP AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS NORTH INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN. WAS ABLE
TO CANCEL EARLIER WARNINGS/ADVISORIES OVER THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT...BUT CURRENT BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS OVER CENTRAL AND HILINE COUNTIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
THIS EVE. STILL EXPECT THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TO EXIT OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT...WITH PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOME CONCERN THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY UPPER TEENS OVER
PLAINS/VALLEYS...MAY DROP FURTHER IF SKIES TOTALLY CLEAR OVER THE
NEW SNOW COVER. BUT BREEZY WINDS MAY OFFSET SOME OF THE
COOLING...FOLLOWING SHIFTS WILL GIVE IT A LOOK AND ADJUST IF
NEEDED. MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TOMORROW AS WEAK RIDGING AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WINDS ALONG
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...SO HAVE UPGRADED TO
WATCH FOR THE FRONT AND ERN GLACIER COUNTY TO A WARNING BEGINNING
AT MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED A NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
ROCKY MTN FRONT STARTING NOON TOMORROW. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
STREAM ACROSS WESTERN MT AND BANK UP AGAINST THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR EAST GIVEN THE
DRYING DOWNSLOPE FLOW OF THE HIGH WINDS IN THE SAME LOCATION. HAVE
DECREASED HIGH TEMPS FOR TUES A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SNOW COVER WITH LOW/MID 40S EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
WED...THOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ROCKY
MTN FRONT. WITH LESS SNOW COVER BY THEN...EXPECT WED MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. WARANAUSKAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
THOUGH MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ALONG
THE HI-LINE SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE
AREAS. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE CATEGORY. SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY AS THE MAIN ENERGY STAYS FARTHER NORTH. MODELS ARE
INCONSISTENT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TREND OF NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
THE WETTER SOLUTION AS IT BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER SO
HAVE NOT FAVORED ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE PLAINS AND CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MLV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 23 45 30 53 / 10 10 10 10
CTB 21 44 29 46 / 10 10 10 10
HLN 22 44 30 52 / 10 10 10 10
BZN 17 41 26 52 / 10 10 10 10
WEY -5 29 16 40 / 40 30 30 30
DLN 13 39 26 47 / 10 20 20 10
HVR 19 43 27 49 / 10 10 10 0
LWT 16 40 28 49 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT TUESDAY
NIGHT EASTERN GLACIER...NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WARANAUSKAS/SCHOTT
LONG TERM...BLANK/MLV
AVIATION...COULSTON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
732 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WE NOW ENTER INTO
ASTRONOMICAL SPRING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF
UNSEASONABLE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH THROUGH THAT TIME. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 11Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO DISPLAYED A COMPACT SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...WHILE IR SATELLITE
DISPLAYS JUST SOME PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS CENTRAL PA UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. GOES LOW CLOUD BASE PRODUCT ALONG WITH SFC
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AS WELL AS
ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
FOR THIS MORNING WILL USE AREAS OF FOG WORDING FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER...SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY...SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORELINE WHERE THE THICKEST FOG AND GREATEST
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. ANY PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE
THIS MORNING WILL ERODE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF DRIER AIR ERODES THE FOG. WE
SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY WHERE BOTH THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS DEPICT A MOIST 925-850 HPA LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HERE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MORE
SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SHOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION WITH A
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE NEAR LAKE HURON ADVECTING INTO PORTIONS OF WNY
BEFORE ACTIVITY DIES. LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOW LIMITED ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE HURON THIS MORNING...AND WILL BRING A LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AROUND NOONTIME
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF WNY...AND INCREASE SKY COVER TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND NOONTIME.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA REMAIN +10 TO +12C THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN MONDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT EXPECT LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO
MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. COOLEST INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE TUG
HILL...AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER
LATER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WE WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE BUILDING ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY ALONG LI`S FALLING TO JUST
BELOW ZERO. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN AMPLE HOWEVER
WITH THE LACK OF A SYNOPTIC TRIGGERING MECHANISM...AND THE
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE TO PRIMARILY BE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND
MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. WE WILL REMAIN MILD AGAIN UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR
SKY WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS
WARM AS WELL...AND IN THE SAME AIRMASS EXPECT FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THICKER FOG WAS SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS TOMORROW NIGHT WINDS MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH STRONGER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO MAINTAIN ANY LAKE
STRATUS FOG CONFINED TO OVER THE LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE INCREDIBLY WARM WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OF LATE WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ABUNDANT WARM AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF +12 TO +14C WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR YET ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HIGHS TO FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...KEEPING
HIGHS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKES DOWN IN THE 60S. IN SPITE OF
THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AM
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AS A CAP AT AROUND
850MB ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO STIFLE ANY CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL INTO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME ON THURSDAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE EDGING SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE AREA LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH OF A
TRIGGER TO SET OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AM NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED AT THIS POINT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY ONCE AGAIN BRING US INTO RECORD
TERRITORY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY...MOST AREAS CAN
STILL EXPECT UPPER 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE USUALLY WARMER
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES BREACHING 80.
THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH COUNTRY. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RUN A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH 40S IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS THE DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER COOLER IS A RELATIVE
TERM IN THIS CASE AS HIGHS WILL STILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL ENSURE
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE COUNTRY AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE.
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ALL SUGGEST MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR BOTH WEEKEND DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVING TREND DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES TO THE EAST COAST
BY MONDAY. ASSUMING CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAVE SUGGESTED COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
UNDER A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. LATEST GOES LOW CLOUD BASE DEPICTS
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES...SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND OVER THE LAKES. WILL CONTINUE THE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS...BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED LATER THIS
MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE A TAD STRONGER
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL STILL INCLUDE A REDUCTION TO MVFR IN
RADIATIONAL FOG LATER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN THREE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FOR THIS MORNING LATEST GOES LOW CLOUD BASE PRODUCT DEPICTS AREAS OF
FOG OVER BOTH LAKES AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS FOG WORDING
THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE LAKE PRODUCTS. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS
TONIGHT EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO AGAIN FORM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH WAVES A FOOT OR LESS ON THE LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...PROMOTING A CONTINUATION OF QUIET
MARINE CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS...AND HIGH MINIMUMS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER THIS
WEEK.
BUFFALO
DATERECORD HIGH (YEAR) HIGH MINIMUM (YEAR)
TUE 3/20 74 (1903) 51 (1921)
WED 3/21 69 (1913) 48 (1948)
THU 3/22 71 (1938) 59 (1938)
FRI 3/23 78 (1966) 48 (1920)
ROCHESTER
DATE RECORD HIGH (YEAR) HIGH MINIMUM (YEAR)
TUE 3/20 79 (1903) 57 (1903)
WED 3/21 72 (1921) 43 (1938)
THU 3/22 83 (1938) 53 (1938)
FRI 3/23 79 (1966) 50 (1938)
A COMPARISON OF THIS CURRENT WARM SPELL IN MARCH OF 2012 TO OTHER YEARS
SHOWS JUST HOW AMAZING THIS STRETCH OF WARM TEMPERATURES ARE.
FOR BUFFALO THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF DAYS REACHING 60F DEGREES OR
WARMER IN THE MONTH OF MARCH IS 11 DAYS SET IN 1973. FOR ROCHESTER
THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF DAYS REACHING 60F OR WARMER IN THE MONTH OF
MARCH IS 12 DAYS SET IN 1946. FOR BOTH CITIES WE WILL LIKELY TIE
THIS MARK TODAY...AND THEN BREAK THOSE RECORDS ON WEDNESDAY.
A TYPICAL MARCH AVERAGES ABOUT 3 DAYS OF 60F OR GREATER.
ANOTHER WAY TO DISPLAY HOW GREAT A STRETCH THIS WARM SPELL IS...IS
TO LOOK AT CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 60F IN MARCH. FOR BUFFALO
THE GREATEST NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS 60F OR GREATER IN MARCH WAS 6
DAYS SET IN 1945. FOR ROCHESTER THE GREATEST STRETCH OF 60F OR
GREATER TEMPERATURES IN MARCH WAS ALSO 6 DAYS SET IN 1945...1968 AND
1998. PRESENTLY THROUGH MONDAY MARCH 19TH THE STREAK FOR BUFFALO IS NOW 8
DAYS...AND ROCHESTER NOW 9 DAYS...AND COUNTING. MARCH OF 2012 WILL GO
DOWN AS ONE OF...IF NOT THE WARMEST MARCH MONTHS IN RECORDED HISTORY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1037 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER VIRGINIA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS PROVIDING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE. I MADE A FEW MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
730 PM FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER 500 MILES EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST IS ADVECTING A MILD & MOIST AIRMASS ONSHORE WITH TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WELL ABOVE MID-MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS VERY AMPLIFIED WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A SMALL UPPER LOW ACROSS
COASTAL VIRGINIA. THIS IS PRODUCING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE PREVENTED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY KIND OF INVERSION ALOFT FOR DAYS NOW...AND THE
SURFACE AIRMASS HAS SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO GENERATE CONVECTION ANY
TIME SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC LIFT EXISTS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
ONE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS HELPED CREATE THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING BUT WILL HAVE
TROUBLE INITIATING NEW CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE
COOLER MARINE AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND THE SEABREEZE FRONT. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...AND WE`LL SHOW AN INCREASING TREND IN POPS AT
DAYBREAK LEADING INTO WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE A LATE MORNING ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE GFS OR NAM MOS
BULLETINS INLAND...AND WITH THIS EXCESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WE
ARE FORECASTING LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS
TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FAIRLY
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME FOG COULD
BECOME DENSE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER
TODAY. WE`LL WATCH VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSER FOR THE POSSIBLE
ISSUANCE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:25 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AT LEAST THURSDAY. A SUBTLE DEFORMATION
ZONE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY OFFSHORE EARLY TRANSLATING TO INLAND LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MUCH LIKE IS TAKING PLACE TODAY. THE
LOW GETS BOOTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM OUT WEST IS
FINALLY ON THE MOVE. STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS VIA SEA BREEZE
BUT VALUES ARE LESS THAN THURSDAY. VIA PERSISTENCE...ADDED AREAS OF
FOG FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE BUT RECENT VERIFICATION
NUMBERS LEAN TOWARD THE MAV AND GENERALLY USED THESE NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2:25 PM WEDNESDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN ANOMALIES CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR THE WKND. DRIER AIR AND
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE A WARMING TREND RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY FINALLY BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY...AND ALL IT TAKES IS THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A -3 STANDARD DEVIATION UPPER LOW! THIS
LOW WILL BE IN THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN
PUSH SOUTHEAST TO BE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY AFTN...AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC BENEATH THIS UPPER LOW WHICH THEN TRAILS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM RAISES PWATS TO 1.5 INCHES...OR +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE JUICE FOR POTENTIAL PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AT THE SAME TIME...IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND THE APPROACH OF AN 80 KT UPPER JET WILL TAP THE HIGHER
THETA-E AIR SO EXPECT TSTMS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND HALF OF
SUNDAY...BEFORE DRYING OCCURS SUNDAY EVE. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BUMP POP TO JUST BELOW
CATEGORICAL...WITH LIKELY POP BOOK-ENDING THAT PERIOD.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE COLUMN AND UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD ACROSS THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE SCHC POP
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
CREATES COOL NORTH FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE THIS HIGH DRIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN DURING THE WKND...TEMPS RISE AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE MAXES. NEAR TO
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MON/TUE...REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BUILD MORE ALONG THE
COAST VERSUS THE INLAND SITES WHICH COULD INHIBIT INTENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL COULD ENHANCE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT MVFR/POTENTIAL
IFR AT THE COASTAL SITES...WITH MVFR/IFR AT THE INLAND SITES. COULD
HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS AS WELL...BUT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS TO
BE DUE TO VISIBILITIES OVER CIGS. BY MID MORNING...ANTICIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE GIVING WAY TO VFR BKN SKIES.
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AOB 12 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SATURDAY. VFR MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UPDATE. THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SHOW A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP 50-100 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND APPROACH CAPE FEAR AROUND SUNRISE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER 500 MILES EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...WITH A MILD SOUTHEAST WIND BLOWING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE PROVIDED BY THE WARM
GULF STREAM HAS HELPED CREATE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS 60+ MILES OFFSHORE.
THESE SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED QUITE SHALLOW SO FAR AND ARE THEREFORE
BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BELOW THE 700 MB LEVEL. THE
AVERAGE WIND VECTOR FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 700 MB SHOULD VEER
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME TONIGHT...KEEPING THE BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS OUT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WE ARE INCLUDING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE CAPE
FEAR REGION.
SEAS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT FROM JUST THE WIND ALONE
DUE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PUSHING ONSHORE. SEA
HEIGHTS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY ARE 4 FEET WITH 7-8 SECOND
PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:25 PM WEDNESDAY...SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SPEEDS OF
TEN KNOTS OR SO INCREASING WITH THE SEA BREEZE. DO NOTICE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN WINDS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM OUT
WEST INCHES CLOSER. SWAN SEAS ARE CONSISTENT IN A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2:25 PM WEDNESDAY...PREFRONTAL REGIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
CREATES INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...CAUSING WINDS TO JUMP FROM AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY
MORNING...TO 15-20 KTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IN TURN FORCES WAVES
TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A SHORT DURATION SATURDAY
NIGHT. COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVE...AND WINDS
VEER RAPIDLY TO THE WEST THEN NORTH ON MONDAY. SPEEDS REMAIN AROUND
15 KTS BEFORE EASING LATE MONDAY TO 10 KTS. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW
PUSHES THE HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS...SO WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-4 FT BY SUNDAY EVE...AND PERSIST THERE
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1136 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS...WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SPRING LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...CANCELLED DFA AS VISIBILITIES INCREASED THIS
MORNING. MAIN CONCERN FOR REST OF DAY IS HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION FOR TODAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER AROUND
BECOMING E-SE. A FEW LITTLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING
DOWN IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO PRODUCE SHWRS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES. AS WINDS VEER AROUND AND
WITH AN ADDED PUSH FROM THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INLAND. EXPECT BEST CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND BUT WILL
ALSO HAVE ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BUT AS WINDS VEER AROUND IT MAY HOLD THIS AREA FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL CWA. HRRR SHOWING CAPE VALUES UP AROUND 1200 WITHIN SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND 500 TO 800 JKG VALUES FURTHER INLAND AND
NORTH. OVERALL CONVECTIVE INDICES DO NOT SEEM AS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY DEPENDING UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER. CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY
AT LEAST THOUGH THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING WERE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SUNNIER
AREAS AND WILL RISE MORE SLOWLY DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS/LOW THAT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. RICHER THETA-E
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT IN AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THIS WEEK. NAM/MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE OFF THE CHARTS
WITH LIKELY AND EVEN CATEGORICAL POPS IN SOME INSTANCES. THESE
HAVE BEEN VERY HIGH LATELY AND THE MORE MODEST GFS/MAV NUMBERS
LOOK LIKE A BETTER PLAY. POPS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER VIA THE GFS FOR
THURSDAY AND SUBTLE LOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA (WEAK DEFORMATION)
BECOME COUPLED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...STARTING TO SEE A HINT OF MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LONG ADVERTISED SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
THE PAST FEW CYCLES. OVERALL THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE LOOPS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THEN DROPS BACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE WE WILL SEE A COMPLEX SYSTEM OF FRONTS...MOST LIKELY WIND
SHIFTS AS ANY TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY WILL BE ALL BUT GONE.
MAINTAINED THE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INCREASING A BIT
FOR SUNDAY CITING THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER 0000 UTC GFS SOLUTION AND
HPCS PREFERENCE FOR THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN FOG/STRATUS THIS
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. TEMPO PERIODS OF VLIFR ARE OCCURRING
MAINLY AT CRE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS
INDICATED IN TAFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LBT MOVING TO THE
SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. THERE IS MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE LBT TERMINAL 13Z-14Z
WITH AT LEAST TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR AND POSSIBLY VCTS. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CREATED BY THIS
MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE FLO-CRE
TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-15 KNOTS.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A REPEAT OF LOW/STRATUS AND FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS MORNINGS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE LBT TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THROUGH FRIDAY...MORNING FOG/MVFR...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEAK
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM AND EVEN VARIABLE AT TIMES...GENERALLY WELL UNDER 10 KTS.
SEAS WILL IN TURN CONTINUE TO BE BENIGN...RIGHT AROUND 2 FT OR
LESS...MAINLY COMPOSED OF AN ESE SWELL COMPONENT WITH A PERIOD OF
AROUND 8 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...A VERY CONSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF
10-15 KNOTS...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 10 WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THURSDAY OFFERS A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION DISTORTING
THE SYNOPTIC WINDS WHICH IS REALLY THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THE
FORECAST. SWAN SEAS DISPLAY CONSISTENCY AS WELL WITH 2-4 FEET.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM TUESDAY...ADJUSTED WINDS AND SEAS UPWARD SLIGHTLY
FOR SATURDAY AS THERE IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION FOR
THE EXTENDED. INITIALLY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS OVERHEAD FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS EARLY FRIDAY
TO 15-20 LATE SATURDAY. INTRODUCED SOME FIVE FOOT SEAS LATE
SATURDAY OTHERWISE...2-4 FEET WILL SUFFICE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1012 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN LAKE
ERIE. LATEST HRRR SHOWING THIS WELL...AND THIS COMBINED WITH OTHER
MODELS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER INLAND NE OH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME DISORGANIZED CELLS POPPING UP SO DID NOT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...WITH LOW CHC MENTIONED FOR NOW. EXPECTING LAKE
ERIE SHRA/STORMS TO PUSH INLAND SLOWLY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LEFT TEMPS ALONE GIVEN YESTERDAY/S MAXES. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION NOT WORRIED MUCH ABOUT CLOUDS GETTING IN THE WAY OF
TEMPS SOMEWHERE AROUND 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE WARM AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL
MODERATE LITTLE AND MORE RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POP UP.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF
THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING OF THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE STILL SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. RIGHT NOW
IT APPEARS THAT ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A DECENT
SHOT AT PRECIP BY LATE FRIDAY. EASTERN AREAS MAY HAVE TO WAIT TILL
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A HALF INCH TO INCH
OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR LATER PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
TRAVERSING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA...500MB TEMPS NEAR -20C SHOULD STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE GREATER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IF THE MARINE LAYER STARTS TO PUSH IN OFF LAKE
ERIE DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUNTING ON THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY STUCK IN THE
50S NEAR THE LAKE. SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. MODELS ARE PRETTY GENEROUS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON SUNDAY AND EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A RETURN TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS NE OHIO AND A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT YNG/ERI
THROUGH 15Z. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON UNLESS A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS. LESS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TODAY THAN MONDAY AND MODELS
SHOW LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE 20 PERCENT
OR LESS SO NOT INCLUDED IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING
AGAIN AT CLE/ERI IN THE 20-02Z WINDOW. BR MAY DEVELOP BY LATE
TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MOST LIKELY TO ACTUALLY SEE FOG WILL BE TOL WHERE MOISTURE OFF THE
LAKE WILL RESULT IN LOWER VISIBILITIES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN MORNING BR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WAVES GENERALLY BELOW 2 FEET. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
FRIDAY... BEFORE BEING PULLED SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC/JAMISON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT WED...ALL POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A SMALL STRIPE OF SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE EASTERN
ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE 00 UTC FFC SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BETWEEN ABOUT 700-600 MB. THIS SHOWS UP WELL
ON THE RUC AND NAM 600 MB TEMPERATURES. THIS INVERSION STAYS PARKED
OVERNIGHT WITH ANY FORCING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SHORT WAVE STAYING
WELL TO OUR NE. THE LATEST NAM IS A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON LOW CLOUD
CHANCES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE DEWPOINT ALREADY 63 AT CAE...AND WITH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE BOARD RUNNING HIGHER THAT PREDICTED...AREAS OF
STRATUS STILL LOOK TO BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. ALSO...ALTO-CU IS
SPREADING OUT UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY ENCROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD YIELD
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITHIN A FEW HOURS. THE NC PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD UP. THESE AREAS ALSO HAVE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS NEAR ZERO. THEREFOR...THE I-77
CORRIDOR IS PROBABLY SETTING UP TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG LATER ON.
FOG IS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...AND CONFIDENCE ISN/T NEARLY HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
OUT FOR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
AS OF 750 PM EDT WED...LOWERED POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS SHRA ARE GENERALLY
WIDELY SCATTERED AND QUITE WEAK. A NICE OUTFLOW BNDRY MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SE ISN/T EVEN HELPING MATTERS. THE WORKSTATION
MODELS DON/T SHOW THIS BNDRY DOING MUCH AS IT MOVES TO THE
NE...WHICH IS HOW I/VE PLAYED THINGS. HOWEVER...AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE MTNS...CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
AS OF 500 PM EDT WED...TRIMMED POPS BACK AS MOST OF THE SHRA
ACTIVITY OVER THE FA REMAINS VERY LIGHT AND LOW TOPPED. STILL
LOOKING FOR COVERAGE TO INCREASE A LITTLE AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
AS OF 230 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CLOSED LOW
MOVING NE THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTN. A RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION...BUT WITH A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER UNDER THE RIDGE IN SE VA. VORTICITY ASSOC
WITH THIS WEAK LOW IS MOVING SWD INTO CENTRAL NC. CONVECTION HAS
THUS FAR BEEN LIMITED TO LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE FAR NRN MOUNTAINS...AND EAST OF THE AREA IN IMPROVING DPVA
ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONVERGE ON THE NE QUARTER OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT VERY SOLID CHANCE POPS THERE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH LESSER CHANCES FARTHER SW. MODEL AND LAPS
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY WARM ALOFT...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES STILL
LIMITED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS DESPITE THE WARM SFC TEMPS. A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY TSTMS...IN
ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE SLOWLY MOVING CELLS.
IN ADDITION TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE
NE WITH THE UPPER VORT LATE TODAY...SCATTERED COASTAL CONVECTION
COULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE PIEDMONT FROM THE SE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ANY COVERAGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE LOWER PIEDMONT. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MAINTAIN
ISOLD SHRA CHANCES OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ESCARPMENT WITH
WEAK SE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 WITH THE PASSING
UPPER VORT LOBE. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL INCREASE IN THE
MOIST SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WITH PERSISTENCE A GOOD FORECAST ON
WARM OVERNIGHT MINS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
THU. MORE OF A SHOTGUN APPROACH TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED ON
THURSDAY AS DEEPER LAYER SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
PROFILES CONTINUE TO STEADILY MOISTEN. MINS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER
GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...AND ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY THE WARM PROFILES ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW MOVES OVER THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF
BERMUDA THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE GULF
STATES AND REACHES THE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY THE ATLANTIC HIGH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH WHILE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA.
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL FAVOR
INCREASING POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS ON FRIDAY...AND OVER THE PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY. HELICITY
VALUES DECREASE AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN LIMITED ON SATURDAY...BUT MODEL CAPE EXCEEDS 1500 J/KG IN
THE GFS AND 1000 J/KG IN THE NAM. QPF WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE
SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT FRIDAY...WHERE THE BEST UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN OVER 10 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING SATURDAY AS
HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WOBBLING
EASTWARD ATOP THE CWFA ON SUNDAY AND DESPITE BEING UNDER A LLVL
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...STEEPING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
COOLING MID-LVL TEMPS WILL GIVE RISE TO THE PROBABILITY OF THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION. THE LOWERING OF FREEZING
LVLS...AS POCKET OF -20 DEG C 50H TEMPS ROTATE ACRS...COULD BE
ENUF TO PROMOTE HAIL PRODUCING TSTMS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWER/TSTM
CHANCES...SENSIBLE WX WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...PERHAPS
BREEZY CONDS...AND MAX TEMPS 6-8 DEG F ABV CLIMO.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUIET AND CONTINUED
MILD. WITH THE FLOW DEAMPLIFYING ON MONDAY AND RIDGING TRANSLATING
ATOP THE SE CONUS THEREAFTER...WILL PLAN ON KEEPING THE FCST DRY
WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 10 DEG ABV NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FEW SHRA WERE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE AIRFIELD AT
ISSUANCE TIME. A BNDRY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ABOUT AN HOUR. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP AROUND 8 KTS FROM THE SSE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AND IT MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHRA AS WELL.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP CB IN THE TAF THROUGH 03 UTC. AREAS OF IFR...OR
LOWER...STRATUS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT. WITH THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW...THE STRATUS SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
LAST NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...AND WILL
CONTINUE IFR CIGS IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE...WITH CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR
NOW I/M FAVORING STRATUS OVER FOG. HOWEVER...IF THE BNDRY LAYER FLOW
VERIFIES ANY WEAKER THAN IT LOOKS ON THE MODELS RIGHT NOW...THEN
CONDITIONS WOULD MORE STRONGLY FAVOR DENSE FOG.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LAST
NIGHT...AND WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW...IT/S EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. THE BNDRY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UP AROUND 10
KTS FROM THE SW BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE SFC WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN DENSE FOG MAY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT/S IN THE TAFS NOW. CIGS WILL SLOWLY
RISE THU MORNING.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA IN THE
MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS THU AFTN...WITH CONVECTION THEN LIKELY
BECOMING ORGANIZED ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRI INTO SAT.
TSTMS COULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A LOW CENTER MOVES BY
OVERHEAD...BUT WITH DRYING EARLY NEXT WEEK. IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT EACH MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ALSO WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1056 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RUC SHOW A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK
EMBEDDED VORT LOBE MOVING SWD THROUGH CENTRAL NC/SC. THIS UPPER WAVE
HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS OUT OF THE CWFA. POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY SE OF CLT THROUGH MID AFTN...HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TRIGGERING
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS VERY HARD TO FIND THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WILL BE BEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN WEAK
CONVERGENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY 55
DBZ CORES REACHING AROUND 22 KFT. CHANCES WOULD BE BEST OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT. HIGHS WILL APPROACH RECORDS ONCE AGAIN.
THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH A WEAK UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF NEAR THE NC/VA COAST FROM THE ENERGY SLIDING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WEAK CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
FROM EITHER LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW OR IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FORCING.
WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ISOLATE SHRA ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
77 OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE IN CONTINUED UPSLOPE
FLOW. LOWS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 225 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A NARROW
HIGHLY AMPLIFY H5 RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE WEST...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. TO THE EAST...A WEAK H5 LOW
MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC/VA. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...PROVIDING MOIST
EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT WEAK QG
FORCING WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK H5 LOW OVER THE EASTERN
NC/VA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WILL YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
FORCING...DEEP MOISTURE...AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE I-77 AND I-40 CORRIDORS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...FADING TO SCHC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE MTNS TO U50S EAST.
THURSDAY...H5 RIDGING WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE CWA AS CLOSED LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST. A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE BAND WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE
DAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE CWA BY SUNSET.
HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISO SHRA/TSRA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO U70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MID
DAY...PUSHING EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 300 TO 800
J/KG...HELICITY AND SWEAT APPEAR FAIRLY LOW DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THE LINE. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS...SOLID CHC
EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 80 EAST. LOWS IN THE 50S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE CLOSED H5 LOW. IT APPEARS THAT QG FORCING WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY LIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY...PEAKING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING EAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SOLID POPS
SOUTH. FORCING AND MODERATE LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A EQUAL
MENTION OF SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CLOSED
LOW...FORCING...AND MOISTURE WILL TRACK EAST DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A STEADY DECREASE IN SHRA. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO U70S EAST...COOLING TO THE
U60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 70S EAST ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE
DAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE
MOVING SWD ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY FLIRT WITH THE
KCLT VICINITY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS BY FAR ENOUGH TO THE SE TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAF.
EXPECT LIGHT SRLY WINDS...BACKING A LITTLE TONIGHT. TRIGGERING IS
GENERALLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX INSTABILITY AND BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS LIKELY BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE
GUIDANCE IS QUITE BULLISH ON VSBY PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUD
COVER COULD INCREASE IN EASTERLY FLOW...SO WILL ONLY FEATURE MVFR
FOR NOW.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MID CLOUDS AND CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL HEATING
PROVIDES INCREASING VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT LIGHT SRLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRIGGERING IS WEAK FOR
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CHCS
BEST AT THE NC TAF SITES. GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR FOG AND CIGS DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SELY
FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SREF SHOWS NO RESTRICTIONS AND ANY
UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE CLOUD COVER COMPLICATES THIS FORECAST. WILL THUS
ONLY GO MVFR FOG FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. FOG/STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG/RWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
MOST OF THE WORK TODAY CENTERED AROUND TRYING TO FORECAST THE
PROPER RAIN CHANCES...LOCATION AND TIMING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS WEAK FORCING WITH SOME INSTABILITY AROUND...AND
MODELS WANTING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION FAIRLY LIBERALLY.
AT 19Z...A NORTHERN JET STREAM BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
PROGRESSED A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL MN AND IA...JUST
WEST OF I-35. THIS WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR EVENING RAINFALL.
MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH WRN MO WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH IL AND ERN MO WITH 40KTS AT 850 MB
RIDING NORTHWARD INTO THE PROGRESSING FRONT IN MN. MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN UNDER RIDGE BUILDING TODAY AS THE STRONG
CLOSED LOW OVER TX IS SLOW TO MOVE. TEMPERATURES AGAIN HAVE
ROCKETED TO 80F IN SWRN WI WHERE FORCING IS MINIMAL AND SKIES ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY. 0-3KM MU CAPES ARE AROUND 400 J/KG IN SWRN WI AS
DEWPOINTS ARE WELL MIXED /AND LOWERED/ IN A 1-1.5 KM DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERMAL GRADIENT IS PRESENT IN THE LOWEST 300 MB
AGL WITH AN 8C 925MB CHANGE FROM KABR-KMPX IN MORNING RAOBS. ALSO
STARTING TO SEE A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM BLACK RIVER FALLS TO W
OF KLSE..TO NEAR KCCY.
HAVE BEEN DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ALL DAY TODAY AS THE FORCING IS
REALLY MINIMAL AS LOW-LEVEL WEAK RIDGING OCCURS. THIS HAS CLEARED
OUT ERN IA AND MO OF MOST CLOUD. MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HRRR
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WET GUIDANCE IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BUT
THE DETAILS ON THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAVE BEEN HANDLED VERY
POORLY AND TOO FAR EAST...THUS NO PRECIPITATION. INDICATIONS
CONTINUE IN THE 20.12Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST 20.18Z RUC THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ACTIVE TONIGHT NEAR I-35 WITH
MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE FAR WRN FORECAST AREA. RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS IN THE RUC HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PLACEMENT AND EVENING
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTING NORTH FROM MO AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT
TO CAUSE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN.
BIG CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR WEST OR EAST WILL THIS BAND SET UP.
BELIEVE THE EAST EXTENT OF THE RAIN BAND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. WITH FRONTAL ZONE ACTIVE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT
ABOVE THE ZONE...COULD SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTEND EAST TO MISS
RIVER. THERE ARE SOME CONSISTENT SIGNALS THAT A SECOND SURGE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT TO ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES A BIT FURTHER
EAST TOO. THIS IS LOW- LEVEL JET FORCED. MOST OF WI SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.
SEVERE CHANCES WOULD BE BEST IN WI WHERE CAPE IS BUILDING. BUT
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING IN THIS AREA...EXCEPT FOR DEVELOPING
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO...SHOULD
CONVECTION INITIATE AND FORM INTO A LINE SEGMENT OVER ERN
IA...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS IT
MOVES INTO WI. OVERALL WIND SHEAR IS QUITE FAVORABLE TODAY...BUT
FORCING IS WEAK IN THE INSTABILITY AREA. WILL MONITOR THIS
EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY DURING THE
MORNING AS THE FORCING DOES AS WELL. THINKING A VERY SIMILAR DAY
TO TODAY WITH SWRN WI POSSIBLY NEAR 80F AGAIN AND BUILDING CAPE.
CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING IN THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS
NORTHEAST. WOULD THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT 0.25 INCHES
THURSDAY FROM THIS FRONT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INSTABILITY
GROWING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
THREATS. BAND FREEZES IN ERN WI AS THE UPPER LOW HALTS ITS
NORTHEAST PROGRESSION.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT IN AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MID-DAY...THEN HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING KICKS IN....AGAIN.
MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE GREAT
LAKES IS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH ABOUT A 2C SPREAD AT 850MB
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ON THOSE FORECASTS
IN THE 60-65F RANGE. GFS SUITE STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WARMING FOR
MONDAY AND HAVE CHOSEN TO BE CONSERVATIVE THERE...WITH COOLER
20.12Z ECMWF. HAVE INTRODUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AGAIN
AS THE RETURN FLOW IN THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE
AREA...LIKE IN THE MONTH OF MAY. THUS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE AREA WILL RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BUT BE WORKED ON
SOMEWHAT FOR RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED SHOULD COLD FRONTAL TIMING VIA STRONG SWRN U.S. TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
1259 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KRST WILL SEE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THEN
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. PLAN ON MVFR CONDITIONS AT KRST AS THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH. LOOK FOR VISIBILITIES TO FALL
INTO THE 4 TO 5SM RANGE AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 2 KFT...AND REMAIN IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE WEST OF KLSE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 3500 TO 5000 FT RANGE. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
BY MID WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. PLAN ON SOUTH
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
WHILE FUELS ARE STILL DRY AND READY TO BURN...WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN A MINIMAL THREAT REGIME AS THE WEAK CONTINUES.
WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE MIN RH VALUES NEAR 50 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL
WI WHICH IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR SPREADING FIRE. HOWEVER...A
WILDFIRE WAS REPORTED IN GREEN LAKE COUNTY TODAY IN CENTRAL
WI...AND THIS AREA IS THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FIRE ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY. A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY TO HELP REDUCE THE
FUEL VOLATILITY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
344 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
WELCOME TO SPRING 2012...WHICH OCCURRED AT 1214 AM THIS MORNING. MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH ALONG WITH CONTINUED RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VERY IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING WITH A
BROAD/DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OF THE CONUS
AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. STRONG WARM/MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS/LOCAL UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WA
OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN MN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PRODUCED A WAVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MO INTO WESTERN WI/EASTERN MN.
20.00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE AND THE 19.21Z SREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...NO CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
STRONG DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MN WILL GET PULLED SLIGHTLY EAST AND EXTEND
FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN/WESTERN IA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PRODUCE SOME UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT SHRA/TS
CHANCES WESTWARD SOME TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO SET UP A RATHER STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED DUE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM EAST TO WEST. IN
ADDITION...WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL JET CIRCULATION INFLUENCING THE
FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE EXACTLY THIS
FRONTOGENETIC FORCED PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SET UP. FOR NOW...IT
APPEARS IT WILL SET UP GENERALLY FROM NORTHWEST WI INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN...WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF LAKE CITY TO ROCHESTER MN AND
CHARLES CITY IA BEING ON THE EASTERN FRINGES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL. NAM DEPICTS 700-1000J/KG 0-1KM CAPE
POTENTIALLY GETTING INGESTED INTO THIS FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION
WHILE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS STRONG IN THE 40-55KT RANGE. SIMILAR
TO WHAT HAPPENED MONDAY EVENING...MAY SEE A FEW SEVERE LINE SEGMENTS
IF THEY CAN ORIENT THEMSELVES ORTHOGONALLY TO THIS SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH ALSO FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE. LOOK FOR A
GENERAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT AS THE
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING EASES UP.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES WESTWARD OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT DYING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHWEST WI. THERE IS A CHANCE OUR AREA COULD BE VOID OF
ANY PRECIPITATION AS THE 20.00Z GEM DEPICTS. FOR NOW...HAVE DIMINISHED
POPS SOME BASED ON THIS SIGNAL. NAM STILL DEPICTING 0-1KM ML CAPE IN
THE 500-800J/KG RANGE...SO DIDN`T WANT TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE CLOSED LOW
MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A GOOD CONVEYOR BELT/MOISTURE PLUME INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE BUT CAPE LOOKS RATHER LIMITED WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH SHRA LIKELY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIPITATION RATES WITH THIS
GOOD MOISTURE FETCH ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
20.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO IL ON FRIDAY. THIS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A DECENT BAND OF MAINLY SHRA THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHRA/ISOLD THUNDER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHRA
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS IL. RIDGE BUILDS IN
WITH FULL FORCE ON SUNDAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MODELS THEN SHOW
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARM FRONTAL SHRA/TS GOING INTO MONDAY. THIS
WOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE NO END IN
SIGHT FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
1115 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO CIGS AND PCPN CHANCES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH MOIST AIRMASS AND SMALL FEATURES MAKING IT
QUITE CHALLENGING. THE MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME
IN RELATION TO CIG HEIGHTS DUE TO THE UNCOMMONLY MOIST MID MARCH
AIR.
LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND WOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS KRST/KLSE THROUGH ABOUT
11Z. KLSE THEN APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF STAYING DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. KRST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE GEM/NAM/GFS SUGGESTING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COULD SPARK MORE
SHOWERS AT KRST FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VCSH FOR
NOW.
AS FOR CIGS...WILL HOLD WITH VFR FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON TUE SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS
WINDY DAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS...BUT MORE IN
THE 20 MPH RANGE RATHER THAN 30 OF RECENT DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...THIS WEEK
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
ANOTHER RECORD HIGH FOR ROCHESTER MN SET MONDAY MARCH 19 WITH THE
THERMOMETER TOPPING OFF AT 77 DEGREES. THIS SHATTERS THE OLD RECORD
OF 69 DEGREES SET WAY BACK IN 1910. LA CROSSE CAME CLOSE TODAY BUT
MISSED IT BY ONE DEGREE...TOPPING OFF AT 75 DEGREES. THE RECORD OF
76 DEGREES SET IN 1921 STILL STANDS. LOOKS LIKE THE PREDICTED HIGH
OF 74 DEGREES TODAY AT LA CROSSE WI WILL BE ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS
WHILE THE PREDICTED HIGH OF 70 AT ROCHESTER MN SHOULD KEEP THE OLD
RECORD SET IN 1910 SAFE. ADDITIONAL HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LOOK
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULL TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME THURSDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN SOME 20-25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR A LIST OF WHAT HAS OCCURRED REGARDING RECORDS THUS FAR AS
WELL AS THOSE THAT COULD FALL IN THE DAYS TO COME...PLEASE SEE THE
TOP NEWS STORY ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1115 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
326 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG WITH HOW LONG THE RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES CAN HANG ON FOR.
THE BROAD...DEEP AND STACKED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
US HAS BEGUN TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AS IT
SPLITS INTO TWO SYSTEMS. THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO ADVECT WARM...MOIST AIR UP FROM THE GULF. AS A RESULT OF ALL
THIS MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...CLOUD COVER HAS FILLED IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS HERE
AND THERE.
THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION CAME THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH A SECOND BAND OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
AS THE RESULT OF A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION
OUT WEST. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA/MINNESOTA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER MONTANA LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING THIS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THIS AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS CLIMBED TO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
WHICH WILL HELP FUEL THIS CONVECTION PUSHING NORTH INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR STILL LOOKS WEAK AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT THERE IS SOME 0-3KM WIND SHEAR WITH SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. BY THE TIME
THIS CONVECTION REACHES THE REGION IT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY WITH ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FURTHER TO THE WEST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE THE FORCING WILL BE
DEEPER DUE TO THE TROUGH. THE 19.12Z MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS
BAND OF CONVECTION COMING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND WEAKENING AS IT REACHES THE RIVER...WHICH SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE FORCING.
AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA TOWARD HUDSON BAY...IT WILL OCCLUDE THE SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN FLANK OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL
IOWA AS A RESULT OF THE CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
HOLDING IT UP. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES BEING ALONG THE NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL IOWA CORRIDOR. WHILE
SOME THUNDER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AT JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...THOUGH PREVIOUS CAPE
FORECASTS FOR TODAY WERE MUCH LOWER DUE TO THE LOWER FORECAST
TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH ON THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AFTER TONIGHT GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND BROAD AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. GOING
INTO THURSDAY...THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL START
TO MEANDER NORTHWARD AND PROVIDE SOME BETTER LIFT FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR THOUGH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 850MB AIR WILL START GOING
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MORE
RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE AFD
FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE RECORD BREAKING STRETCH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
326 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE CURRENT SWRN U.S. LOW AS
IT CLOSES OFF AND NEARLY CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...AND HOW IT
LIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD. LATEST TREND IN THE GFS 19.06Z AND
19.12Z RUNS IS TO SHIFT THE LOW NE AND CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES FOR
A MORE SHOWERY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE 19.12Z GEM AND ECMWF LOW
TRACK TREND IS FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD MEAN A DRIER WEEKEND AND
MORE LIKELY COOLER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. 19.12Z
GEM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AS IT HAS A
STRONGER NRN SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA SATURDAY...WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. 19.12Z 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR 0C IN THE GEM FOR SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS
THE OUTLIER. THE AREA WOULD LIKELY SEE 40S AND LOW 50S SATURDAY PER
THE GEM SOLUTION. THE 19.12Z ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR SHORTWAVE TRAVELING
ACROSS RN CANADA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT SLOWER/LESS
AGGRESSIVE/FURTHER EAST...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
6C SUNDAY. THE 19.12Z GFS IS EVEN FURTHER NE AND HAS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS IS THE 19.12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
BOTTOM LINE IS THERE IS STILL A WIDE SPECTRUM OF OUTCOMES THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND FEEL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WEATHER WOULD TEND
TO GO COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...AND WE MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS
WITH THE UNPREDICTABLE...WEAKLY FORCED LOW TRACK /IT COULD BE SLOWER
MOVING EAST/. WOULD THINK A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THAT FRONT ALIGNS NW-SE BY SUNDAY AT THE
LATEST. STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
1115 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO CIGS AND PCPN CHANCES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH MOIST AIRMASS AND SMALL FEATURES MAKING IT
QUITE CHALLENGING. THE MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME
IN RELATION TO CIG HEIGHTS DUE TO THE UNCOMMONLY MOIST MID MARCH
AIR.
LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND WOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS KRST/KLSE THROUGH ABOUT
11Z. KLSE THEN APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF STAYING DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. KRST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE GEM/NAM/GFS SUGGESTING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COULD SPARK MORE
SHOWERS AT KRST FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH VCSH FOR
NOW.
AS FOR CIGS...WILL HOLD WITH VFR FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON TUE SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS
WINDY DAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS...BUT MORE IN
THE 20 MPH RANGE RATHER THAN 30 OF RECENT DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...THIS WEEK
326 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2012
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT ROCHESTER WAS ONCE AGAIN BROKEN
TODAY...BUT NOT YET AT LA CROSSE. CHECK RER STATEMENTS LATER TODAY
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING ANY NEW RECORDS. ADDITIONAL
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL MAINLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER ANY
RAIN SHOWERS OCCUR.
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH FORECAST LOWS ONLY TO DROP INTO THE LOW 50S
WITH MANY OF THE RECORDS IN THE 40S.
FOR A LIST OF WHAT HAS OCCURRED REGARDING RECORDS THUS FAR AS
WELL AS THOSE THAT COULD FALL IN THE DAYS TO COME...PLEASE SEE THE
TOP NEWS STORY ON OUR WEBSITE ON THE UNSEASONABLY WARM MARCH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
326 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE......HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN OK EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS
THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTER WAVE LENGTH TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE STRATUS
BREAKS UP LATER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SBCAPE MAY REACH 400 TO 600 J/KG
ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER
STORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF WE KEEP THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY WE MAY REMAIN STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...MAY BE MID
60S IN AREAS WITH MORE INSOLATION.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND
MID 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS WHILE A DOWN STREAM H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS PLAINS INTO THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
CAUSE A LEE SFC TROUGH TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S
THIS WEEKEND AND AROUND 80 BY MONDAY. DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN CONUS H5 TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL CAUSE A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY BECOME STATIONARY ALONG I-70
AND RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER H5
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SFC FRONT MAY PROVIDE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S.
GARGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
CIGS OVERNIGHT AND WHETHER FOG WILL DEVELOP ARE THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTIES. FORCING FOR PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST.
THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG WILL FORM BETWEEN 08 AND
09Z. THE RUC AT LEAST HAS IFR STRATUS. WITH RECENT RAINS AND A
NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER...IF SKIES CLEAR OUT DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SOMEWHAT MIXED FAVORING A STRATUS DECK. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS FORMING SO WILL STAY WITH PERSISTENCE AND ONLY MENTION
SOME MVFR VSBY AND BR. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT BY NOON
WITH SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER.
TIMING OF ANY TS WILL BE DIFFICULT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION
OF CB AT THIS TIME.
WOLTERS
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
216 AM MDT THU MAR 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...AT 03Z RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FROM MCCOOK TO COLBY TO TRIBUNE MOVING WEST AT 20-25
MPH. LATEST 00Z NAM AND RUC HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS BAND AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE IT WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE FURTHER EAST
DRIER AIR MOVES IN PRODUCING A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL WITH THE BAND MOVING
WEST. ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG GIVEN THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOW T/TD SPREADS. AREAS FURTHER EAST THAT MAY NOT SEE RAIN
DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR FOG.
WINDS TONIGHT GUSTY FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TEXAS 500 MB LOW HAS MOVED NORTHEAST
THE PAST FEW HOURS. DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
SOUTHERN KANSAS...BUT EXPECT MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z. BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT PER Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL HAVE A LONG WAY TO TRAVEL BEFORE THEY ARRIVE
HERE...FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RAINS IS HIGH ESPECIALLY AS THE
CLOSED LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE THEM AFTER 03Z. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FOG
TO THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
LOW WILL STALL OVER OKLAHOMA THURSDAY PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING. MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED
TO THE NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE AIR MASS WILL DRY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
50S...VERY SIMILAR TO THE TEMPERATURES REACH TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT THU MAR 22 2012
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT CUT OFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA AS NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WHILE
MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS PATTERN...AVAILABLE
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE DATA INCREASES CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO THINK THIS
SOLUTION VERY REASONABLE. CWA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND DEPARTING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH FAIRLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LLJ
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS SPLIT WITH HOW STRONG THIS WILL BE
AND THINK OVERALL PROBABILITIES FOR ANY PRECIP ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY SOME OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG BEING THE
ONLY WX CONCERNS. OVERALL EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GEFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS NOT INDICATING ALOT OF SPREAD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND WITH MODELS BEING IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THINK OVERALL CONSENSUS PRODUCTS A PRETTY GOOD PLACE TO START WITH.
WHILE PERIOD WILL START WITH LARGE SCALE H5 RIDGE IN PLACE BRINGING
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...FORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND BRINGING MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL FLOW TO THE
PLAINS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THINK THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THINK OVERALL CHANCES PRETTY LOW. EVEN BEHIND
FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE A FIRE WX THREAT ON MONDAY GIVEN VERY WARM TEMPS AND
INCREASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OCCURRING...WANT TO WAIT AND SEE IMPACT ON FUELS BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING
THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS TO
IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES WEST AFTER
15Z CIGS AND VIS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 21Z-00Z AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM....JRM
AVIATION...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1255 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. I HAVE
UPDATED THE POPS, WX, AND QPF GRIDS WITH THE HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS KEEPING TEMPS UP ACROSS AREAS THAT
WILL RECEIVE ADDITIONAL RAIN. ALL OTHER GRIDS AND FORECAST
THINKING REMAIN ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.25 TO 0.35 INCHES/HR WILL
COVER A MUCH LARGER AREA INCLUDING GARDEN CITY, DODGE CITY, LIBERAL,
GREENSBURG, KINSLEY AREAS. AS MUCH AS 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT SUCH THAT AREAS LIKE
DIGHTON, NESS CITY, AND WAKEENEY WILL RECEIVE FAIRLY DECENT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH (THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY). MODERATE RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE END OF THE TONIGHT
PERIOD 12Z THURSDAY)...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN
BEING FROM GARDEN CITY TO WAKEENEY BY THAT TIME. TEMPERATURE
WISE...WILL BE KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITHOUT ANY ADVECTION
OCCURRING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL SLOWLY FILL OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, WITH
ADVECTIONS/ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHING BY 12Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE PROGRESSING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY. THUS, THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE INCREASING. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE, SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY COOL IN THE 50S THURSDAY
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PERSISTENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL COLD
POOL. THE UPPER-LOW WILL GRADUALLY EXIT INTO MISSOURI BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SO THE PRECIPITATION OUGHT TO EXIT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 7 PM THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS SUNSHINE RETURNS AND THE LOW-LEVEL COLD
POOL EXITS. TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. IN
FACT, THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES,
AND LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE POISED TO MAKE A
RAPID RETURN ALONG AND EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FRONT WILL NOT PASS VERY FAR INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SINCE THE
GULF WATER IS ALREADY NEAR EQUILIBRIUM WITH THE OVERLYING AIR.
OFTENTIMES IN MARCH THERE ARE STRONG FRONTS THAT PUSH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEEP INTO THE TROPICS, WITH INSUFFICIENT TIME TO DRAW THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS. A DRYLINE WILL
SET UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY WITH DECENT CAPE LIKELY IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP SINCE THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL JET AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH. THAT SAID, THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WESTERN KANSAS. SO SMALL STORM CHANCES WERE
MAINTAINED. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS, KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM
THE 70S/80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
THE GARDEN CITY TERMINAL AS RAIN CONTINUES. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE DODGE CITY AND HAYS TERMINALS AS AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THIS SURFACE LOW AT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. WITH THE MOIST SURFACE AND UPSLOPE FLOW RETURNING, AREAS OF
DENSE FOG MAY FORM TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES
TO AROUND A QUARTER OF A MILE IN SOME PLACES. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE TO THE EAST TOMORROW WITH RAIN CHANCES
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AOA060.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 35 67 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 34 68 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 34 70 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 35 69 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 39 66 41 75 / 0 10 0 0
P28 37 68 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOVORKA 42
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA 42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1051 PM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...AT 03Z RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FROM MCCOOK TO COLBY TO TRIBUNE MOVING WEST AT 20-25
MPH. LATEST 00Z NAM AND RUC HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS BAND AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE IT WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE FURTHER EAST
DRIER AIR MOVES IN PRODUCING A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL WITH THE BAND MOVING
WEST. ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG GIVEN THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOW T/TD SPREADS. AREAS FURTHER EAST THAT MAY NOT SEE RAIN
DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR FOG.
WINDS TONIGHT GUSTY FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TEXAS 500 MB LOW HAS MOVED NORTHEAST
THE PAST FEW HOURS. DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
SOUTHERN KANSAS...BUT EXPECT MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z. BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT PER Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL HAVE A LONG WAY TO TRAVEL BEFORE THEY ARRIVE
HERE...FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RAINS IS HIGH ESPECIALLY AS THE
CLOSED LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE THEM AFTER 03Z. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FOG
TO THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
LOW WILL STALL OVER OKLAHOMA THURSDAY PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING. MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED
TO THE NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE AIR MASS WILL DRY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
50S...VERY SIMILAR TO THE TEMPERATURES REACH TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS
TO THE EAST COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN MODERATING FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EAST...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER
70S AND MANY LOCATIONS AROUND 80F. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD 80F TEMPS AND LOW-MID
80S POSSIBLE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY LINE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH WITH
HIGH TD VALUES AND GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING EAST OF THIS FEATURE. A
DEEP DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH STRONG
CIN...AND THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND IVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THE ECMWF FOR THE LAST TWO RUNS HAS PRODUCED QPF EAST OF
THE FORECAST DRY LINE...SO A STORM OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
KANSAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE CAP WERE TO WEAKEN. THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
LOOKING BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK GENERALLY SUPPORTS DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY WE MAY HAVE AWHILE TO WAIT
FOR A MEANINGFUL SHOT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER OUR CURRENT
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS TO
IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES WEST AFTER
15Z CIGS AND VIS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 21Z-00Z AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED MAR 21 2012
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH SATURDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS REGARDING THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
DRY LINE OVER THE CWA EACH DAY...WITH A LARGE TD GRADIENT POSSIBLE
FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A QUESTION MARK EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TO REACH CRITERIA ON
WINDS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REACHING RFW CRITERIA
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOT THAT CAN CHANGE IN REGARDS
TO TD AND WINDS EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH IN TIME TO
ISSUE A WATCH/WARNING...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...007
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM....DR
AVIATION...007
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1201 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
CONTINUING TO UPDATE POPS AS SHOWERS JUST REFUSE TO FORM OVER OUR
AREA. HAVE CUT BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT ALLOWED
POPS TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AS THE RAIN BAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO
ROTATES NORTHEAST. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z...SO HAVE KEPT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR LATE TONIGHT.
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF THE EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT THE NEXT BAND
OF PRECIP TO AFFECT THE AREA IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY DOWN IN
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. SHORT RANGE MODELS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
RUC AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER 06Z SO HAVE BASICALLY LEFT THE PRECIP TRENDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT UNTOUCHED.
CARNEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
(TONIGHT)
THE DEEP UPPER LOW HAS BEEN MEANDERING NNEWD TODAY AND PROFILER AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE IT IS OVER EXTREME SW OK AT MID
AFTERNOON. BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY
THROUGH MID MO TODAY PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. THE PRECIPITATION HASNT MADE ANY IN-ROADS
FURTHER EAST. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CHUG NNEWD TONIGHT MOVING TO NEAR THE
CENTRAL OK/KS BORDER BY 12Z. IN THE PROCESS...A VORT LOBE WILL
ROTATE NNEWD INTO THE AREA...AND A MUCH LARGER AND MORE SOLID BAND
OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM SRN KS THROUGH SW MO INTO
AR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
BAND. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS IN A SMALL PORTION
OF CENTRAL MO. THE PERSIST SHOWERS/RAIN LAST NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING GENERATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS MONITEAU COUNTY WHERE SOME MINOR FLOODING
HAS BEEN REPORTED. GIVEN THIS ONGOING FLOODING AND THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT...I HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH...THINKING THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL POTENTIALLY AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING PROBLEMS.
GLASS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
THAT DEVELOPED TONIGHT...WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH MAIN
UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH OR SO OF PCPN WITH THIS
ROUND. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH SYSTEM EXITING...SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN ON
THURSDAY AS THE RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...THEN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
DRY AND MILDER WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WARMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWD THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED HOWEVER LATEST RADAR TRENDS STILL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH PART OF TOMORROW AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA
SLOWLY MOVES NEWD. INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER TO
MVFR HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF MVFR ONSET.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD NWD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HOWEVER LATEST RADAR TRENDS
STILL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AT
KSTL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH PART OF TOMORROW AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA SLOWLY MOVES NEWD. INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PROBABLY LOWER TO MVFR HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF MVFR ONSET.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BOONE MO-COLE MO-
MONITEAU MO.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
258 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
DEALING WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
MOVEMENT OUT OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN.
AT 07Z UPPER LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH SURFACE LOW
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. NEXT ARM OF SHOWERS PIVOTING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. HRRR MODEL LIFTS THE SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 12Z WITH SHOWERS CONFINED TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO END IN THE NORTHEAST BUT SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA AS UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW MOVING TO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES YET ON FRIDAY FOR
SOUTHEAST AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS MISSOURI. LOW
FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO END RAIN THREAT FOR
THE AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA WITH MODELS STALLING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT THE LATE PERIOD STARTING ON WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT
WITH STALLED FRONT NEARBY TO THE SOUTH LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE
LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
A DRY PUNCH/LOBE WORKING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BEFORE THEN VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH
CIGS/VSBYS FROM VFR TO IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AS BANDS OF
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE PIVOT NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S TO N THROUGH THE
MORNING AS BRISK E/NE SFC WINDS BECOME SSE AND DECREASE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
144 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER VIRGINIA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS PROVIDING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE. I MADE A FEW MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
730 PM FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER 500 MILES EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST IS ADVECTING A MILD & MOIST AIRMASS ONSHORE WITH TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WELL ABOVE MID-MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS VERY AMPLIFIED WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A SMALL UPPER LOW ACROSS
COASTAL VIRGINIA. THIS IS PRODUCING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE PREVENTED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY KIND OF INVERSION ALOFT FOR DAYS NOW...AND THE
SURFACE AIRMASS HAS SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO GENERATE CONVECTION ANY
TIME SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC LIFT EXISTS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
ONE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS HELPED CREATE THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING BUT WILL HAVE
TROUBLE INITIATING NEW CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE
COOLER MARINE AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND THE SEABREEZE FRONT. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...AND WE`LL SHOW AN INCREASING TREND IN POPS AT
DAYBREAK LEADING INTO WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE A LATE MORNING ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE GFS OR NAM MOS
BULLETINS INLAND...AND WITH THIS EXCESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WE
ARE FORECASTING LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS
TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FAIRLY
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME FOG COULD
BECOME DENSE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER
TODAY. WE`LL WATCH VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSER FOR THE POSSIBLE
ISSUANCE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:25 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AT LEAST THURSDAY. A SUBTLE DEFORMATION
ZONE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY OFFSHORE EARLY TRANSLATING TO INLAND LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MUCH LIKE IS TAKING PLACE TODAY. THE
LOW GETS BOOTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM OUT WEST IS
FINALLY ON THE MOVE. STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS VIA SEA BREEZE
BUT VALUES ARE LESS THAN THURSDAY. VIA PERSISTENCE...ADDED AREAS OF
FOG FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE BUT RECENT VERIFICATION
NUMBERS LEAN TOWARD THE MAV AND GENERALLY USED THESE NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2:25 PM WEDNESDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN ANOMALIES CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR THE WKND. DRIER AIR AND
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE A WARMING TREND RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY FINALLY BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY...AND ALL IT TAKES IS THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A -3 STANDARD DEVIATION UPPER LOW! THIS
LOW WILL BE IN THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN
PUSH SOUTHEAST TO BE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY AFTN...AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC BENEATH THIS UPPER LOW WHICH THEN TRAILS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM RAISES PWATS TO 1.5 INCHES...OR +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE JUICE FOR POTENTIAL PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AT THE SAME TIME...IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND THE APPROACH OF AN 80 KT UPPER JET WILL TAP THE HIGHER
THETA-E AIR SO EXPECT TSTMS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND HALF OF
SUNDAY...BEFORE DRYING OCCURS SUNDAY EVE. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BUMP POP TO JUST BELOW
CATEGORICAL...WITH LIKELY POP BOOK-ENDING THAT PERIOD.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE COLUMN AND UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD ACROSS THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE SCHC POP
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
CREATES COOL NORTH FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE THIS HIGH DRIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN DURING THE WKND...TEMPS RISE AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST...ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE MAXES. NEAR TO
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MON/TUE...REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE
TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME LEFTOVER
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO
BUILD MORE ALONG THE COAST VERSUS THE INLAND SITES WHICH COULD
INHIBIT INTENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL
COULD ENHANCE FOG DEVELOPMENT ...ESPECIALLY AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT MVFR/POTENTIAL IFR AT THE COASTAL
SITES...WITH MVFR/IFR AT THE INLAND SITES. BY MID
MORNING...ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING FOG TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE GIVING
WAY TO VFR...WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BKN SKIES. WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 12 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. VFR MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UPDATE. THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SHOW A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP 50-100 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND APPROACH CAPE FEAR AROUND SUNRISE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER 500 MILES EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...WITH A MILD SOUTHEAST WIND BLOWING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE PROVIDED BY THE WARM
GULF STREAM HAS HELPED CREATE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS 60+ MILES OFFSHORE.
THESE SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED QUITE SHALLOW SO FAR AND ARE THEREFORE
BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BELOW THE 700 MB LEVEL. THE
AVERAGE WIND VECTOR FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 700 MB SHOULD VEER
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME TONIGHT...KEEPING THE BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS OUT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WE ARE INCLUDING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE CAPE
FEAR REGION.
SEAS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT FROM JUST THE WIND ALONE
DUE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PUSHING ONSHORE. SEA
HEIGHTS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY ARE 4 FEET WITH 7-8 SECOND
PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:25 PM WEDNESDAY...SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SPEEDS OF
TEN KNOTS OR SO INCREASING WITH THE SEA BREEZE. DO NOTICE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN WINDS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM OUT
WEST INCHES CLOSER. SWAN SEAS ARE CONSISTENT IN A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2:25 PM WEDNESDAY...PREFRONTAL REGIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
CREATES INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...CAUSING WINDS TO JUMP FROM AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY
MORNING...TO 15-20 KTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IN TURN FORCES WAVES
TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A SHORT DURATION SATURDAY
NIGHT. COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVE...AND WINDS
VEER RAPIDLY TO THE WEST THEN NORTH ON MONDAY. SPEEDS REMAIN AROUND
15 KTS BEFORE EASING LATE MONDAY TO 10 KTS. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW
PUSHES THE HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS...SO WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-4 FT BY SUNDAY EVE...AND PERSIST THERE
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE SELY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE. MAIN CHANGES WERE FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AS OF 1030 PM EDT WED...ALL POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A SMALL STRIPE OF SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE EASTERN
ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE 00 UTC FFC SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BETWEEN ABOUT 700-600 MB. THIS SHOWS UP WELL
ON THE RUC AND NAM 600 MB TEMPERATURES. THIS INVERSION STAYS PARKED
OVERNIGHT WITH ANY FORCING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SHORT WAVE STAYING
WELL TO OUR NE. THE LATEST NAM IS A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON LOW CLOUD
CHANCES TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE DEWPOINT ALREADY 63 AT CAE...AND WITH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE BOARD RUNNING HIGHER THAT PREDICTED...AREAS OF
STRATUS STILL LOOK TO BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. ALSO...ALTO-CU IS
SPREADING OUT UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY ENCROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD YIELD
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITHIN A FEW HOURS. THE NC PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD UP. THESE AREAS ALSO HAVE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS NEAR ZERO. THEREFOR...THE I-77
CORRIDOR IS PROBABLY SETTING UP TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG LATER ON.
FOG IS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...AND CONFIDENCE ISN/T NEARLY HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
OUT FOR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
AS OF 750 PM EDT WED...LOWERED POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS SHRA ARE GENERALLY
WIDELY SCATTERED AND QUITE WEAK. A NICE OUTFLOW BNDRY MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SE ISN/T EVEN HELPING MATTERS. THE WORKSTATION
MODELS DON/T SHOW THIS BNDRY DOING MUCH AS IT MOVES TO THE
NE...WHICH IS HOW I/VE PLAYED THINGS. HOWEVER...AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE MTNS...CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
AS OF 500 PM EDT WED...TRIMMED POPS BACK AS MOST OF THE SHRA
ACTIVITY OVER THE FA REMAINS VERY LIGHT AND LOW TOPPED. STILL
LOOKING FOR COVERAGE TO INCREASE A LITTLE AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
AS OF 230 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CLOSED LOW
MOVING NE THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTN. A RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION...BUT WITH A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER UNDER THE RIDGE IN SE VA. VORTICITY ASSOC
WITH THIS WEAK LOW IS MOVING SWD INTO CENTRAL NC. CONVECTION HAS
THUS FAR BEEN LIMITED TO LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE FAR NRN MOUNTAINS...AND EAST OF THE AREA IN IMPROVING DPVA
ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONVERGE ON THE NE QUARTER OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT VERY SOLID CHANCE POPS THERE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH LESSER CHANCES FARTHER SW. MODEL AND LAPS
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY WARM ALOFT...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES STILL
LIMITED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS DESPITE THE WARM SFC TEMPS. A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY TSTMS...IN
ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE SLOWLY MOVING CELLS.
IN ADDITION TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE
NE WITH THE UPPER VORT LATE TODAY...SCATTERED COASTAL CONVECTION
COULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE PIEDMONT FROM THE SE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ANY COVERAGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE LOWER PIEDMONT. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MAINTAIN
ISOLD SHRA CHANCES OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ESCARPMENT WITH
WEAK SE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 WITH THE PASSING
UPPER VORT LOBE. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL INCREASE IN THE
MOIST SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WITH PERSISTENCE A GOOD FORECAST ON
WARM OVERNIGHT MINS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
THU. MORE OF A SHOTGUN APPROACH TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE WARRANTED ON
THURSDAY AS DEEPER LAYER SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
PROFILES CONTINUE TO STEADILY MOISTEN. MINS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER
GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...AND ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY THE WARM PROFILES ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW MOVES OVER THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF
BERMUDA THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE GULF
STATES AND REACHES THE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY THE ATLANTIC HIGH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH WHILE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA.
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL FAVOR
INCREASING POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS ON FRIDAY...AND OVER THE PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY. HELICITY
VALUES DECREASE AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN LIMITED ON SATURDAY...BUT MODEL CAPE EXCEEDS 1500 J/KG IN
THE GFS AND 1000 J/KG IN THE NAM. QPF WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE
SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT FRIDAY...WHERE THE BEST UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN OVER 10 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING SATURDAY AS
HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WOBBLING
EASTWARD ATOP THE CWFA ON SUNDAY AND DESPITE BEING UNDER A LLVL
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...STEEPING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
COOLING MID-LVL TEMPS WILL GIVE RISE TO THE PROBABILITY OF THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION. THE LOWERING OF FREEZING
LVLS...AS POCKET OF -20 DEG C 50H TEMPS ROTATE ACRS...COULD BE
ENUF TO PROMOTE HAIL PRODUCING TSTMS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWER/TSTM
CHANCES...SENSIBLE WX WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...PERHAPS
BREEZY CONDS...AND MAX TEMPS 6-8 DEG F ABV CLIMO.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUIET AND CONTINUED
MILD. WITH THE FLOW DEAMPLIFYING ON MONDAY AND RIDGING TRANSLATING
ATOP THE SE CONUS THEREAFTER...WILL PLAN ON KEEPING THE FCST DRY
WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 10 DEG ABV NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...AREAS OF IFR...OR LOWER...STRATUS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION LAST NIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW...THE STRATUS
SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...AND IS IN FACT DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE IFR CIGS IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...WITH CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. FOR NOW I/M FAVORING STRATUS OVER FOG. HOWEVER... IF THE
BNDRY LAYER FLOW VERIFIES ANY WEAKER THAN IT LOOKS ON THE MODELS
RIGHT NOW...THEN CONDITIONS WOULD MORE STRONGLY FAVOR DENSE FOG.
EXPECT HIGH BASED CU TO CONTINUE THRU THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION IS AGAIN POSSIBLE...BUT TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE ATTM. LIGHT
SSE WIND BECOMES SLY DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUES THRU THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LAST
NIGHT...AND WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. IN FACT...IT IS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE BNDRY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UP AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE
SW BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SFC WINDS
FROM DECOUPLING. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN DENSE FOG MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT IS IN THE TAFS NOW. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THU
MORNING. EXPECT HIGH BASED CU TO CONTINUE THRU THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. CONVECTION IS AGAIN POSSIBLE...BUT TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE
ATTM. LIGHT SSE WIND BECOMES S TO SW DURING THE MORNING AND
CONTINUES THRU THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...CONVECTION THEN LIKELY BECOMING ORGANIZED ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRI INTO SAT. TSTMS COULD CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS A LOW CENTER MOVES BY OVERHEAD...BUT WITH DRYING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT EACH MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ALSO WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG/MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON CLOSED LOW AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH THUNDER CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER OK WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGING AND IN ADVANCE OF THE CLOSED LOW
EXTENDED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO OUR AREA. DRYING IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR AREA IN THIS SUBSIDENCE WAS CAUSING MOST OF
THE SHOWERS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW TOWARD THE AREA TO
EVAPORATE...THOUGH NOW A FEW MORE SURFACE OBS SHOWING RAIN MAKING IT
TO GROUND AS THEY BEGIN TO FEEL STRETCHING DEFORMATION/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WHICH IS PLACE FROM SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHERN
WI. RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE OBS ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORCING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA WERE VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
22.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HANDLING OF
THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND AFFECT ON THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER OK WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH MOISTURE FETCH NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE NORTHEAST OF I-94. CANNOT RULE OUT A CRACK OR TWO OF
THUNDER. WHILE 0-1KM MLCAPE IS MINIMAL...NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT ISOLATED
MENTION OF THUNDER IN BASED ON THIS SIGNAL. TEMPERATURES WILL SUFFER
A BIT TODAY COMPARATIVELY TO LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/INCOMING SHOWERS...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI TONIGHT...LOOK
FOR CONVEYOR OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT AN
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT TOOK OUT
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS ANY CAPE WANES QUICKLY. ANTICIPATING AROUND
1/2 INCH RAINFALL ON AVERAGE FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODELS SHOW THE CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE/BULK OF THE SHOWERS LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF I-94 ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN IL. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OFF AGAIN IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S.
THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ON SATURDAY SHOULD
BE CONFINED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT/STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR A LITTLE MORE
HEATING. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TO SOME LOWER 70S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
22.00Z ECMWF/GFS DISPLAY SOME INTERESTING FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL TO HOW WARM WE GET. APPEARS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER
60S. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY AS WELL. THEN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OOZES SOUTH OUT
OF ONTARIO FOR COOLER/DRIER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF
DEFINITELY COOLER OF THE MODELS ON MONDAY...INDICATING 925MB AIR IN
THE 4-6C RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS INDICATING 8-15C.
MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S
NORTHEAST OF I-94...TO THE UPPER 60S ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER MONDAY WEST OF THE RIVER IN RESPONSE TO LIFT OVER A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IA. THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...PLAN ON INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS
A LOW TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA...PULLING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY...COULD SEE A BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER. GFS INDICATING 0-1KM
MLCAPE AROUND 1200J/KG WITH PLENTY OF BULK SHEAR NOSING UP INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE OF THE ESSENCE HERE AND WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF SHOW THE
AREA IN LINGERING DRY/BREEZY CYCLONIC FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1146 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE 22.00Z NAM HAS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HRRR AND
HIRES EAST ARW SHOWING JUST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SOME OF THESE TRYING TO WORK
NORTH ACROSS IOWA WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THESE ARE
JUST SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL DECK. THE 22.01Z HRRR
SHOWS THE REMAINS OF THESE POSSIBLY REACHING THE I90 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z AND WILL HAVE A VICINITY SHOWER AT BOTH SITES
TO REFLECT THIS. AFTER THAT...ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS LOOK TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. THE REMAINS OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOME FOCUSED ON THE AREA AT THAT TIME
AND THE NAM SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
COMING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE AROUND 4 PVU/S OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE
OF 1 TO 2 UBARS/S. WILL BRING IN SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS FORCING
BUT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS CONFIDENCE ON HOW
WIDESPREAD OR HOW LONG THE SHOWERS WILL LAST IS STILL PRETTY LOW.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST VFR UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE
SHOWERS BEGIN AND LOWER THE CEILING TO MVFR. WILL INDICATE THE
SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EVENING AS THE FORCING LIFTS TO THE NORTH
AND CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
333 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY....ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
DAYTIME ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGED FROM PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA.
A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THIS EVENING AND ADVECT NORTH AND WEST INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IOWA
LATE TONIGHT...FOCUSING INTO FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WESTERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL INCREASE INTO THE
200 TO 700 J/KG RANGE...WHICH COLD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY EVENING. DECIDED
TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
THE THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE RECEIVED 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
350 PERCENT OF NORMAL...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 3/4 TO 1 INCH REPORTS
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOCUSING INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN. MODELS
GENERATE SOME WEAK ML CAPE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH VALUES
AROUND 100 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION TAKES THE UPPER LOW
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH VERSUS THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM. THE NAM SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SOLUTIONS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
WATCH ON THIS. IF THE LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PLAN ON MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE LOW WILL FINALLY DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. LOOK FOR
DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
40S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
333 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
21.12 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING SOME INTERESTING DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 13 C
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA TO AROUND 8 C ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE MUCH COOLER 850
TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM 5 C ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA TO -3 C ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN....WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME OF THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
TRICKLE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL SIDE WITH A MODELS CONSENSUS BLEND...WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO SET UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR A
LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION ON TUESDAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS. AFTERNOON 0-3 KM
MUCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2100 J/KG BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON..WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS.
0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 20 KTS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1146 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE 22.00Z NAM HAS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HRRR AND
HIRES EAST ARW SHOWING JUST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SOME OF THESE TRYING TO WORK
NORTH ACROSS IOWA WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THESE ARE
JUST SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL DECK. THE 22.01Z HRRR
SHOWS THE REMAINS OF THESE POSSIBLY REACHING THE I90 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z AND WILL HAVE A VICINITY SHOWER AT BOTH SITES
TO REFLECT THIS. AFTER THAT...ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS LOOK TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. THE REMAINS OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOME FOCUSED ON THE AREA AT THAT TIME
AND THE NAM SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
COMING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE AROUND 4 PVU/S OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE
OF 1 TO 2 UBARS/S. WILL BRING IN SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS FORCING
BUT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS CONFIDENCE ON HOW
WIDESPREAD OR HOW LONG THE SHOWERS WILL LAST IS STILL PRETTY LOW.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST VFR UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE
SHOWERS BEGIN AND LOWER THE CEILING TO MVFR. WILL INDICATE THE
SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EVENING AS THE FORCING LIFTS TO THE NORTH
AND CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
333 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1045 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2012
.UPDATE...
14Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis shows the northern stream flow
well to the north for this time of year, arriving over the Pacific
NW coastline before ridging up into south-central Canada. The main
features south of this flow include the large and stubborn upper low
spinning over the central/southern plains, and the downstream
ridging in place from the eastern Gulf of Mexico northward to the
TN/OH valleys.
At the surface, forecast area is squeezed between a large area of
high pressure centered off the Carolina coast, and a decaying
front/convergent zone across the lower/middle MS valley. The
gradient between these 2 features continues to supply our region
with a deep southeasterly flow. This flow is transporting decent
levels of boundary layer moisture in from the Atlantic and eastern
Gulf of Mexico. KTLH 12Z sounding showed that we are still fairly
dry in the mid-levels overtop this moisture. This profile is rather
conducive to the development of morning status/stratocu seen over
portions of the area. These clouds are expected to begin to mix out
by midday with a general mix of sun and cumulus clouds for the
afternoon/early evening.
Looking to our west, region of deep layer synoptic support/QG
forcing ahead of the upper low combined with the low level
focus/convergence along the front continues to produce a large area
of showers/storms from southern LA into MS and western AL. Little
movement of these features through the day should keep the majority
of this convection west of our zones through the evening hours. Can
not rule out some widely sct convection taking root by late
afternoon, however have decreased rain chances over the western
zones generally below 30% for the rest of the day.
Appears the best chances for deep convection this afternoon will
occur along the Suwannee/River and I-75 corridor (generally after
2pm). High resolution guidance suite all show an eventual veering of
the winds onshore with sea-breeze development along the eastern
shores of Apalachee Bay. This will set up a convergence zone with
the opposing east coast sea-breeze/synoptic flow in the region
described above, and should be enough to force a scattering of
showers and storms into the middle evening hours.
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of lower stratus that developed around and shortly after
sunrise are beginning to show signs of mixing out. Anticipate period
of MVFR cigs at KTLH...KABY...and KDHN through around midday,
followed by general prevailing VFR conditions through the afternoon
and evening hours. Only exceptions will be associated with any brief
afternoon showers/storms. At this time, the best chances to see the
afternoon convection will be at KVLD (after 19-20z). Continued low
level moisture advection into the region will likely result in
another round (and likely more extensive) of MVFR/IFR CIGS late
tonight into the first few daylight hours of Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong southeast wind fetch across the waters will keep seas
elevated into the afternoon. Winds are then expected to subside
during the later afternoon and seas will follow. A cold front then
approaches later Friday into Saturday switching winds around to the
west and bringing in a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.
The front will then push south on Sunday and conditions will improve
for the later half of the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 83 62 83 63 81 / 20 10 50 40 60
Panama City 78 67 77 67 76 / 20 20 60 50 60
Dothan 80 65 79 63 80 / 20 20 70 50 60
Albany 82 62 81 63 79 / 30 40 60 50 60
Valdosta 82 59 83 60 84 / 50 60 50 40 70
Cross City 82 60 83 62 79 / 40 40 20 20 60
Apalachicola 76 66 76 68 75 / 10 10 40 30 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
MROCZKA/CAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
BAND OF RAIN ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH MOST OF ANY RAIN NOW EXPECTED N OF KOMA AND
KLNK THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH BULK OF LOW CLOUDS WERE LIFTING NORTH
WITH PRECIP AREA...POCKETS OF IFR CIGS REMAINED TO THE SOUTH...AND
THESE COULD TRACK ACROSS TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER PRECIP
SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER N. OTHERWISE HEATING BY NOON COULD BRING AN
FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO ERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH ANY CIGS LIKELY
ABOVE 3K FT AGL. AS UPPER LOW LIFTS TOWARD REGION LATER
TONIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN...ALTHOUGH
WITH 12Z TAF MENTION OF RAIN WAS JUST MADE AT KLNK. IF CLOUDS
INCREASE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED FOG COULD BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE
LATE TONIGHT.
CHERMOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...
DEALING WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
MOVEMENT OUT OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN.
AT 07Z UPPER LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH SURFACE LOW
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. NEXT ARM OF SHOWERS PIVOTING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. HRRR MODEL LIFTS THE SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 12Z WITH SHOWERS CONFINED TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO END IN THE NORTHEAST BUT SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA AS UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW MOVING TO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES YET ON FRIDAY FOR
SOUTHEAST AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS MISSOURI. LOW
FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO END RAIN THREAT FOR
THE AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA WITH MODELS STALLING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT THE LATE PERIOD STARTING ON WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT
WITH STALLED FRONT NEARBY TO THE SOUTH LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE
LIKELY.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY...
LINGERING FOG HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
MORNING...BUT EVEN REPORTING STATIONS IN THAT AREA ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW SIGNS OF VSBYS AT OR ABOVE 1/2 MILE. STRATUS IS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WEST OF US HWY 1 BUT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLOUDS
WILL BREAK BY NOON AND SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
AFTERNOON HEATING. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE
CONVECTIVE CONVERGE. THE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL APPEARS RELATIVELY
QUIET UPSTREAM OVER VA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
OBVIOUS DISTURBANCES AND MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT PENETRATING INTO
CENTRAL NC. THE MAIN CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS OF THE UPPER LOW IS NOW
RIGHT ALONG THE OBX COAST. RUC DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE FORECASTS SUGGEST
THERE MAY BE A WEAK JET AND SHALLOW DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN PA/MD
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EARLY SIGNS OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
COOLEST. HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY ACTIVE WITH REGARDS TO
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST...BUT GIVEN THE ABOVE
OBSERVATIONS...WE WILL KEEP POPS HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. TO
THE SOUTH...SEABREEZE AND SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER INLAND SC WHERE
DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATER MAY DRIFT NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WIND FIELDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. -SMITH
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT...NARROW UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND N-S ACROSS THE REGION. THE
PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LIGHT WIND REGIME NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR MASS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CREATE CONDITIONS OPTIMAL
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION DENSE FOG
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. FRIDAY MORNING WILL
DRIFT EWD AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS
DRIFTS ENE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EWD....EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCURRING
OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEP CENTRAL U.S. LOW. BELIEVE INITIAL SURGE OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OPAQUE ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
FILTERED SUNSHINE IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
SLY FLOW WILL LIKELY AID TO INITIATE ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC. DEVELOPING SSW FLOW SHOULD
KEEP BULK OF CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN AND NOT CREEP INTO THE
PIEDMONT. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED/DELAYED PRECIP ONSET IN THE WEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN AROUND 1390M FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH DEVELOPING SW SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH AIDING TO BRING ADDITIONAL WARMTH ...AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND
80/LOWER 80S HIGHLY PROBABLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY ESE
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. BEGINNING TO SEE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING WITH THE NAM NOTICEABLY SLOWER COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF.
APPEARS BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 LIKELY
REMAINING DRY UNTIL DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIP TIMING A
TAD IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...DELAYING LIKELY POPS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR 2 AM. REMAINING MILD WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
A POTENT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT CENTRAL NC THIS WEEKEND... RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SOME ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW... BUT
THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE FROM
A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 00Z NAM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... 84 HOURS) AND THE 00Z
GFS... LIFTING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE AREA IN A SW TO NE FASHION
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT. WHICH APPEARS TO BE TIED TO SEVERAL FACTORS... HOW
MUCH SURFACE HEATING WILL WE REALIZE (INSTABILITY) AND HOW POSSIBLE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT (STILL A
BIT FAR OUT TO MAKE A GOOD ASSESSMENT ON THIS YET WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE). IN FACT THE LATEST MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD 5-10
DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER... WITH INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (~30-50 KTS) AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODEST SURFACE INSTABILITY (UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG) ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME
KIND OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... WITH THE
MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY... WHICH LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AT THIS TIME. POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH PERIODS
(GFS ATTEMPTS TO DRY SLOT US SATURDAY NIGHT). GIVEN THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY... RESULTING IN
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS... EXPECT WE
COULD SEE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING.
WITH THIS TYPE OF A SETUP WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THUS...
WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY IN THE HWO.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGH IN THE 73-77 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO E. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GIVEN THE UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SUNDAY... WILL CONTINUE TO TREND HIGH TEMPS BELOW STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE THEN... GENERALLY LOWER 70S... WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID 70S
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S... AS THE MID/UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER... HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS... GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRY BACKDOOR CLOUD DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TRACKS ESE`WARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS... WILL
GO WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S DURING THIS PERIOD...
WITH POSSIBLY SOME 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM THURSDAY...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...A MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOG TO
DEVELOP WITH POCKETS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS. THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8-10 AM INTO A BROKEN
STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000-2000FT...THEN INTO A SCATTERED CU FIELD BY
MID DAY WITH BASES 3500-4500FT.
THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF KGSO/KRDU AND KRWI. OTHERWISE...THE
HIGHEST THREAT FOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED OVER THE
PIEDMONT. IN ANTICIPATION OF LIMITED COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION ANY
CONVECTION IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NO
CONVECTION. AGAIN...A MOIST NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH 3-4
HOURS OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY PROBABLE AT MOST TAF SITES.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH EXTENDED STRETCHES OF MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ON MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE CIRCULATES MOIST AIR ONSHORE. SATURDAY WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AS AN UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM THURSDAY...WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH ALONG
THE NORTH COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING...LIKELY TRIPPING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS FROM 10 MILE BOX-CARS TO FIGURE 8 ISLAND INTO PARTS OF
PENDER COUNTY INTO MIDDAY. DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENCED IN SOUNDINGS AND
VAPOR TRENDS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH TODAY...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST TO SUSTAIN SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT OVER NC SEEMS LIKELY TO SLIP FARTHER SOUTHWARD AS THE
UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE OUTER BANKS SAGS SE. STORMS TODAY WILL
EXHIBIT SLUGGISH MOTION...PERHAPS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SE AS THE
TOWER CORES EXCEED 700 MB. SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING TODAY AND HAIL...IN AND JUST AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
THE SEA BREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN THE CONVECTION
TODAY...FOCUSING ACTIVITY INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRI LOOKS RATHER DRY AS BERMUDA HIGH WEAKLY
HOLDS ON UNDER NARROW 5H RIDGE. WEAK SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING FRI...AND LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURE LIMITS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE
SOME ISOLATED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SEA BREEZE. CURRENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT AS STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES
EAST. DEEP GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT AS
FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT LOOKING LIKE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCH.
ADDITIONALLY THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW PLACES THE CAROLINAS IN A
AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNDER 6C/KM AND WINDS DO NOT CHANGE
MUCH WITH HEIGHT...HELICITY VALUES STAY UNDER 50 FOR MOST OF SAT.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW LEVEL JET IT IS NOT VERY STRONG...35 TO 40 KT.
CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER GIVEN THE DEEPER CONVECTION...BUT LACK OF
STRONG UPWARD MOTION WILL LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY COME WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATE SAT
NIGHT...THOUGH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY OFFSET THE
INCREASE IN LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. LOW LEVELS START TO DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW TRAILING THE FRONT MID
LEVEL REMAIN MOIST. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT LATE SAT NIGHT MAY KEEP
PRECIP FROM FALLING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT SKIES REMAIN
CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI/FRI NIGHT WILL DROP A BIT FOR
SAT/SAT NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL STILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NC AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST...MOVING OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT.
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW AND ITS DEEP MOISTURE WARRANTS CARRYING A
POP ALL DAY SUN DESPITE THE LOW LEVELS STARTING TO DRY OUT. WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POP SUN MORNING WHERE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
MAY LINGER...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN. WILL HAVE LOWER POP
IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW CHANCE VS THE MORNING HIGH CHANCE. EXIT OF
UPPER LOW SUN NIGHT ALLOWS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP...DRYING
THE AREA OUT. 5H RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD EAST MON AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE SETTING
UP SHOP NEAR BERMUDA WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
WED. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE STARTING FLATTEN LATE
WED...BUT THIS MAY BE PREMATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES INSTEAD OF 8
TO 10 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG IS NOT AS DEEP AS IN PAST DAYS. ANY FOG LEFTOVER AT
TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS
THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT WILL PUSH CONVECTION WESTWARD. HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US A SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT...A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL ADVERTISING A GOOD BIT OF CONVECTION FOR FLO
AND LBT AFTER 17Z. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. VFR MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN
A WEAK SOUTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS TODAY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW WIND SPEEDS. THIS WILL BE DUE
TO THE INCREASING SWELL HEIGHT CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL SEA STATE.
EXPECT SEAS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRI WILL INCREASE FRI
NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS STARTING
OUT AROUND 10 KT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT FRI NIGHT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SAT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER. SPEEDS TOP
OUT CLOSE TO 20 KT LATE SAT EVENING...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ONCE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS...CLOSE TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD...OFF SHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT REALLY ANY COLD ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF SO WINDS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE
GRADIENT. SEAS AROUND 3 FT FRI INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT SAT IN RESPONSE
TO WINDS PICKING UP. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 6 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST
LATE SAT...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A SHORT DURATION SCA AS THE PERIOD
ENDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST SUN NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL
KEEP SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHERLY ON MON.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE MONDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING TO 10 KT.
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS KNOCKS SEAS BACK TO 3 TO 4 FT SUN.
FURTHER DECREASE IN SPEEDS MON WILL RESULT IN SEAS DROPPING TO 3 FT
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
650 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER VIRGINIA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS PROVIDING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING
WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM THURSDAY...CUT BACK TO SILENT POPS FOR MUCH OF OUR
INLAND SITES THIS MORNING...SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ALSO REMOVED
MENTION OF FOG AS IT HAS BEEN QUITE SPOTTY THIS MORNING. NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS DESCRIBED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
OVERALL PATTERN WILL FINALLY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF EVOLUTION DURING
THE NEAR TERM. THE BERMUDA HIGH ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN
TO BECOME DEPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS A CUT- OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA STARTS TRACKING NORTHEAST. A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN CONUS/WESTLANT WILL PUSH EASTWARD TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
SEE NO TRIGGERS FOR STRONG OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY.
HOWEVER...WITH ABOUT AN INCH AN A QUARTER OF P/W
AVAILABLE...DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 60 AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE
WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME MODEST FORCING IN THE CURRENT
JUICY...ALMOST TROPICAL...AIRMASS.
AS OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED THAT MUCH EXPECT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 THIS AFTERNOON...LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRI LOOKS RATHER DRY AS BERMUDA HIGH WEAKLY
HOLDS ON UNDER NARROW 5H RIDGE. WEAK SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING FRI...AND LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURE LIMITS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE
SOME ISOLATED STORMS FIRING OFF THE SEA BREEZE. CURRENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT AS STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES
EAST. DEEP GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT AS
FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT LOOKING LIKE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCH.
ADDITIONALLY THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW PLACES THE CAROLINAS IN A
AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNDER 6C/KM AND WINDS DO NOT CHANGE
MUCH WITH HEIGHT...HELICITY VALUES STAY UNDER 50 FOR MOST OF SAT.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW LEVEL JET IT IS NOT VERY STRONG...35 TO 40 KT.
CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER GIVEN THE DEEPER CONVECTION...BUT LACK OF
STRONG UPWARD MOTION WILL LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY COME WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATE SAT
NIGHT...THOUGH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY OFFSET THE
INCREASE IN LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. LOW LEVELS START TO DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW TRAILING THE FRONT MID
LEVEL REMAIN MOIST. LIMITED FORCING ALOFT LATE SAT NIGHT MAY KEEP
PRECIP FROM FALLING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT SKIES REMAIN
CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI/FRI NIGHT WILL DROP A BIT FOR
SAT/SAT NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL STILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NC AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST...MOVING OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT.
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW AND ITS DEEP MOISTURE WARRANTS CARRYING A
POP ALL DAY SUN DESPITE THE LOW LEVELS STARTING TO DRY OUT. WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POP SUN MORNING WHERE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
MAY LINGER...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN. WILL HAVE LOWER POP
IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW CHANCE VS THE MORNING HIGH CHANCE. EXIT OF
UPPER LOW SUN NIGHT ALLOWS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP...DRYING
THE AREA OUT. 5H RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD EAST MON AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE SETTING
UP SHOP NEAR BERMUDA WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
WED. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE STARTING FLATTEN LATE
WED...BUT THIS MAY BE PREMATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES INSTEAD OF 8
TO 10 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG IS NOT AS DEEP AS IN PAST DAYS. ANY FOG LEFTOVER AT
TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS
THE SEA BREEZE RESULTANT WILL PUSH CONVECTION WESTWARD. HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US A SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT...A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL ADVERTISING A GOOD BIT OF CONVECTION FOR FLO
AND LBT AFTER 17Z. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. VFR MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP
A WEAK SOUTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS TODAY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH SHIFT SOUTHWARDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW WIND SPEEDS. THIS WILL BE DUE
TO THE INCREASING SWELL HEIGHT CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL SEA
STATE. EXPECT SEAS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRI WILL INCREASE FRI
NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS STARTING
OUT AROUND 10 KT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT FRI NIGHT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SAT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER. SPEEDS TOP
OUT CLOSE TO 20 KT LATE SAT EVENING...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ONCE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS...CLOSE TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD...OFF SHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT REALLY ANY COLD ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF SO WINDS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE
GRADIENT. SEAS AROUND 3 FT FRI INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT SAT IN RESPONSE
TO WINDS PICKING UP. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 6 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST
LATE SAT...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A SHORT DURATION SCA AS THE PERIOD
ENDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST SUN NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL
KEEP SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHERLY ON MON.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE MONDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING TO 10 KT.
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS KNOCKS SEAS BACK TO 3 TO 4 FT SUN.
FURTHER DECREASE IN SPEEDS MON WILL RESULT IN SEAS DROPPING TO 3 FT
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/III
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1052 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL PROFILER AND VWP DATA HAVE SAMPLED A STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL JET MAX ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE E-NE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ASSOCIATED
FORCING HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID CLOUD ALONG WITH A
REGION OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE SPEED MAX INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALL SHORT RANGE DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS E OK/NW AR THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL SIMPLY REFINE PRECIP CHANCES TO
FOLLOW THE SCENARIO. THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS ACROSS SE OK / NW AR WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND FIELDS
PRODUCE AMPLE SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE LARGEST
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE RECOVERY OF TEMPS AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD.
WHERE THE AIRMASS DOES RECOVERY ENOUGH INSTABILITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY
TO EVOLVE. LOCAL WRF RUNS ALONG WITH HRRR DATA SUGGEST THIS IS
MOST LIKELY ACROSS EXTREME SE OK AND POINTS FURTHER EAST. THE
UPDATED FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY OBSERVED
CLOUD / TEMP TRENDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 60 44 68 46 / 100 40 20 0
FSM 64 45 67 45 / 70 60 20 10
MLC 60 42 71 46 / 90 30 10 10
BVO 60 42 66 42 / 100 40 20 0
FYV 64 42 62 41 / 70 80 40 10
BYV 65 46 62 45 / 70 80 40 10
MKO 61 43 66 44 / 90 40 10 10
MIO 62 45 64 46 / 90 80 40 0
F10 60 44 69 48 / 90 30 10 0
HHW 64 43 73 48 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
649 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON CLOSED LOW AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH THUNDER CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER OK WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGING AND IN ADVANCE OF THE CLOSED LOW
EXTENDED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO OUR AREA. DRYING IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR AREA IN THIS SUBSIDENCE WAS CAUSING MOST OF
THE SHOWERS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW TOWARD THE AREA TO
EVAPORATE...THOUGH NOW A FEW MORE SURFACE OBS SHOWING RAIN MAKING IT
TO GROUND AS THEY BEGIN TO FEEL STRETCHING DEFORMATION/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WHICH IS PLACE FROM SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHERN
WI. RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE OBS ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORCING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA WERE VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
22.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HANDLING OF
THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND AFFECT ON THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER OK WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH MOISTURE FETCH NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE NORTHEAST OF I-94. CANNOT RULE OUT A CRACK OR TWO OF
THUNDER. WHILE 0-1KM MLCAPE IS MINIMAL...NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT ISOLATED
MENTION OF THUNDER IN BASED ON THIS SIGNAL. TEMPERATURES WILL SUFFER
A BIT TODAY COMPARATIVELY TO LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/INCOMING SHOWERS...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI TONIGHT...LOOK
FOR CONVEYOR OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT AN
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT TOOK OUT
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS ANY CAPE WANES QUICKLY. ANTICIPATING AROUND
1/2 INCH RAINFALL ON AVERAGE FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODELS SHOW THE CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE/BULK OF THE SHOWERS LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF I-94 ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN IL. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OFF AGAIN IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S.
THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ON SATURDAY SHOULD
BE CONFINED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT/STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR A LITTLE MORE
HEATING. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TO SOME LOWER 70S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
22.00Z ECMWF/GFS DISPLAY SOME INTERESTING FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL TO HOW WARM WE GET. APPEARS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER
60S. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY AS WELL. THEN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OOZES SOUTH OUT
OF ONTARIO FOR COOLER/DRIER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF
DEFINITELY COOLER OF THE MODELS ON MONDAY...INDICATING 925MB AIR IN
THE 4-6C RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS INDICATING 8-15C.
MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S
NORTHEAST OF I-94...TO THE UPPER 60S ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER MONDAY WEST OF THE RIVER IN RESPONSE TO LIFT OVER A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IA. THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...PLAN ON INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS
A LOW TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA...PULLING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY...COULD SEE A BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER. GFS INDICATING 0-1KM
MLCAPE AROUND 1200J/KG WITH PLENTY OF BULK SHEAR NOSING UP INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE OF THE ESSENCE HERE AND WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF SHOW THE
AREA IN LINGERING DRY/BREEZY CYCLONIC FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
648 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM IOWA INTO EASTERN MISSOURI WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL LOOKS TO HOLD ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO KEEP CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING
EVENTUALLY AT KRST THE CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR SOMEWHERE AROUND
20Z. WITH KLSE BEING CLOSER TO THE DRIER AIR AND IN THE
VALLEY...PLANNING ON THE MVFR CEILING NOT TO DEVELOP UNTIL WELL
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...AROUND 08Z. REGARDING LATE TONIGHT...CONCERN
EXISTS THAT A DRY SLOT/CLEARING WEDGE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL
LIFT INTO THE TAF SITES. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A LOWER STRATUS
DEVELOPS WHICH IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR EVEN LOWER. ANOTHER ALTERNATIVE IS SOME FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS VLIFR. LASTLY...IT STAYS CLEAR IF THE DRY
AIR IS DEEP ENOUGH. THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL NEED TO BE
REEVALUATED THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AS CONFIDENCE
ABOUT THE WEDGE OF DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES GROWS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
334 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE IN PART FOR THE MASSIVE WARMTH WAS
BEGINNING ITS TREK TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDED FROM THE GULF STATES INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA. MODELS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO DETERMINE THE TIMING OF THIS BAND SHIFTING
NORTHEAST AND IMPACTING THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HRRR RUNS DEPICTED
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ACCAS FIELD HAS QUICKLY FORMED NE OF
THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP AND CONVECTION HAS NOW BEGAN TO FIRE FROM NE
ILLINOIS INTO WHITE COUNTY AND TOWARDS INDY. IN ADDITION...CU FIELD
EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTHERN LWR MICHIGAN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF LAKE
BREEZE WHICH HAS WORKED WELL INLAND WITH ONE SHOWER NOTED OVER
HILLSDALE COUNTY. HAVE OPTED FOR PRE 1ST PERIOD SLGT CHC/CHC WITH
HIGHEST IN SW AREAS TO COVER TRENDS. BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO
WORK CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN EVENING
STORM. HAVE TRIED TO ADD SOME TIMING DETAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND WENT CATEGORICAL LATER TONIGHT IN SW AREAS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS AOA 60 FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER FRI/FRI NGT. LARGE DRY SLOW
NOTED BEHIND BAND OF SHOWERS AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. TIMING
OF THIS WILL BE CRUCIAL TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN/EVE AND
ALSO SEVERE POTENTIAL. TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT CLEARING WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE...ALLOWING TEMPS TO JUMP
INTO THE 70S PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL MOVE
AROUND THE LOW AND HELP EXPAND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SWODY2 HAS SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF AREA IN SLGT RISK. RISK FOR SEVERE
MAY EXTEND ACROSS ENTIRE AREA DEPENDING ON TIMING OF CLEARING AND
AMOUNT OF HEATING. LEFT LIKELY POPS ALONE FOR FRI MORNING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DRY PERIOD THAT WILL NEED TO BE BETTER TIMED OUT WITH
THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. SEVERAL OFFICES HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH LIKELY
OR LOW END CAT POPS FRI AFTERNOON AND GIVEN SEVERAL SIGNALS IN
MODELS AND RECENT TRENDS...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND INCREASED TO CAT
POPS NE HALF IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT PRECIP WILL STILL LINGER IN THE EVENING SO HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS NE TRENDING TO CHC OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER STILL EXPECTED BEGINNING SATURDAY.
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
MORE LIKE LATE MARCH THAN LATE MAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY
WITH PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT. EXPECT A CLOUDY
DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN AFTERNOON FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN FOR THAT.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...SYNOPTIC PATTERN STILL FAVORABLE FOR WEAK
CLOSED LOW FUNNEL CLOUDS...WHICH RARELY TOUCHDOWN BUT DO DEVELOP IN
THIS PATTERN.
UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
MOVING IN. THIS HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO MICHIGAN MONDAY WITH COOL
EASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO NORTHEAST AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED
TREND OF GRADUALLY LOWERING TEMPS WITH LOWS NOW INTO MIDDLE 40S
SOUTHWEST TO MID 30S NORTHEAST. PATCHY FROST BECOMING MORE PLAUSIBLE
NORTHEAST IF WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. RETURN FLOW
LOOKS TO QUICKLY SETUP EARLY TUESDAY AND THIS MAY HELP INCREASE
WINDS TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH TOO EARLY AND TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR
ANY INCLUSION OF FROST INTO FORECAST BUT CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING
GIVEN THE SUSCEPTIBLE STATE OF MOST VEGETATION.
BRIEF WARMUP THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA. ACCEPTED ALLBLEND POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH MID CHANCE RANGE AND STILL ISSUES WITH TIMING OF
BEST LIFT THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/
FEW CHANGES MADE TO 18Z TAFS AS SWATH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO EXPAND TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY. SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD TREND HAS OCCURRED BUT STILL NO
CLEAR SIGNS OF ITS ARRIVAL HERE. ONE OF THE HI RES MODELS SHOWS
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS BREAKING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY IMPACT
BOTH TAF SITES. VIS SAT SHOWS CU BEGINNING TO POP SO TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. IN TERMS
OF BAND TO THE WEST. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO TRY TO PROVIDE SOME TIMING. FURTHER REFINEMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED.
DRY SLOT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME HEATING AND LIKIHOOD OF INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS
UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
NEED TO BE ADDED WITH BEST TIMING AFTER 18Z FRI.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
148 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
.AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/
FEW CHANGES MADE TO 18Z TAFS AS SWATH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO EXPAND TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY. SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD TREND HAS OCCURRED BUT STILL NO
CLEAR SIGNS OF ITS ARRIVAL HERE. ONE OF THE HI RES MODELS SHOWS
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS BREAKING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY IMPACT
BOTH TAF SITES. VIS SAT SHOWS CU BEGINNING TO POP SO TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. IN TERMS
OF BAND TO THE WEST. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO TRY TO PROVIDE SOME TIMING. FURTHER REFINEMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED.
DRY SLOT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME HEATING AND LIKIHOOD OF INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS
UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
NEED TO BE ADDED WITH BEST TIMING AFTER 18Z FRI.
&&
.UPDATE...
UPDATE SENT TO BUMP UP HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE WHERE STRONG
HEATING AND DELAY IN LAKE SHADOW HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S. SFC OBS SHOWING WINDS NOW BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT NW
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO STEADY OUT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.
SLOWED ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT WITH MAIN CLOUD SHIELD WELL
TO THE WEST IN ILLINOIS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AS LAST FEW FRAMES OF VIS SAT SHOWS CU BEGINNING TO
POP IN SW AREAS. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS POPPING UP AND AFFECTING MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS TO INCREASE
IN SW AREAS WHERE HRRR HINTS AT BEST CHANCE OF INITIATION AND
UPDATE IF NEEDED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...
HGT PATTN ALOFT HAS CHGD LTL OVR THE LAST 24HRS W/DEEP CUTOFF
CYCLONE STUCK OVR N TX WWD OF LG BLOCKING RIDGE CNTRD THROUGH THE
ERN OH VALLEY. AS IS TYPICAL IN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLW PATTNS SUCH AS
THIS...MODEL BIASES CONT WRT TO BREAKDOWN OF MID LVL RIDGE AND AS
SUCH ARE AGAIN DECIDEDLY SLWR W/EWD ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR SURGE THU
NIGHT COINCIDENT W/EWD PROGRESSION OF RAPIDLY WKNG MID LVL ASCENT
PLUME.
PREFERENCE THIS MORNING LIES W/HIGHRES INDICATIONS THROUGHOUT BUT
ESP W/RENEWED DEEP TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT DVLPG ON FRI ALG NE
SEMICIRCLE OF DEEP LYRD TROUGH CONCURRENT W/DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
UPSWING. THUS ISOLD THUNDER MENTION CONFINED TO AFTN PDS BOTH LT THIS
AFTN/EVE FAR WEST AND NE HALF FRI AFTN TIMED W/XPCD GREATER SFC
BASED DESTABILIZATION AS LL THETA-E RIDGE AND LACKLUSTER MID LVL
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST OTHERWISE OUTSIDE THESE PDS. MOST SIG CHG SHRT TERM
WAS TO BACK POPS WWD THIS AFTN THROUGH EVENING W/SLWR BREAKDOWN OF
MID LVL RIDGE.
OTHERWISE SLWR EWD RETREAT/BREAKDOWN OF LL THERMAL RIDGE TDA SHLD
AGAIN YIELD RECORD HIGHS ONCE AGAIN. KFWA RECORD OF 75 IN JEOPARDY
FRI PENDING COVERAGE/EXTENT OF PCPN AND CLD CVR BUT CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE W/BINOVC PATTN OBSVD IN IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM... / SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY /
CLOSED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL
DRIFT SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA ON SATURDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED SINKING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY...AND VORT LOBES
ROTATING AROUND THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW...WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN SOME SFC HEATING UNDER THE
COLD POCKET ALOFT...WITH ISO THUNDER POSSIBLE. ALSO...AS MENTIONED
BY THE DAY SHIFT...THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES SUPPORT A LOW RISK FOR
COLD AIR FUNNELS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK A
BIT BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WILL SALVAGE A DRY SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. MODEL 925-850
HPA RH`S ABOVE 80 PERCENT SUNDAY MORNING SUGGEST THAT A BKN/OVC
STRATOCU DECK WILL HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
MIXING/THINNING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS TREND. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS
MIXING A BIT...LEADING TO HIGHS GENERALLY A LITTLE COOLER THAN
SATURDAY (LOW/MID 60S).
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE
TIMING/TRACK/AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMANATING
OUT OF A NORTHEAST PACIFIC MEAN TROUGH. ONE SUCH WAVE WILL LIFT NEWD
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THEN DROP INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW.
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS WILL FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH TIMING AND
STRENGTH (ECMWF QUICKER AND COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEFS). GIVEN
THESE DIFFERENCES OPTED TO CONTINUE CLOSE TO THE PREV FCST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL
OR EVEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW VEERS SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO A SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT GUIDANCE HAS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. SYSTEM WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FA AROUND WEDNESDAY. FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE WITH THE PRIMARY QUESTION THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE BEING TIMING. AS FOR DAYS 6/7 TEMPS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE
WITH TREND OF GOING WARMER THAN CONSALL GIVEN CLIMO BIAS IN MOS AND
RECENT COOL BIAS IN THIS WARM PATTERN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
UPDATE...FISHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WAS CENTERED ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOB AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A -28C
CENTER AT 500MB OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A FAIRLY FOCUSED CENTER OF
ROTATION WAS EVIDENT BOTH ON RADAR AND 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE JUST
EAST OF KIOWA, KS. SOME SMALL SHOWERS WERE ROTATING AROUND THE
CENTER AND AFFECTED MAINLY PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY AS OF 20Z. A
MORE GENERAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AXIS EXTENDED FROM GREAT BEND TO
KINSLEY TO BUCKLIN TO NEAR ASHLAND AND COLDWATER. THIS WAS THE
WESTERNMOST AREA OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH HAS NOT MOVED WESTWARD AT
ALL AS THE GENERAL MOTION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS FROM
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WERE REMAINING
STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS AT DODGE CITY
AND PRATT AT 20Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
MAIN SHORT TERM CHALLENGES TONIGHT WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE END OF
PRECIPITATION. INDICATIONS FROM THE RUC, HRRR, AND NAM12 WOULD SEEM
TO INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WANING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. POPS WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING IN THE GRIDS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GONE BY 01-02Z OR SO IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE
FOCUS THEN WILL TURN TO THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR (OR AT LEAST BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR)...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS AND SATURATED
GROUNDS...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR FOG FORMATION AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL BE ADDING AREAS OF FOG TO THE
GRIDS FOR THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. ON FRIDAY...ONCE THE FOG CLEARS
(IF IT DEVELOPS AS FORECAST) SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ADVANCE ON THE
WESTERN PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
YIELD LIGHT WINDS ALL DAY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LOW WITH THE UPPER LOW NOT ALL THAT FAR REMOVED
FROM THE PLAINS...SO TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE
THICKNESSES WILL BE INCREASING AT A QUICKER RATE WITH THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE APPROACHING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION MOVES INTO
MISSOURI AND SUNSHINE RETURNS. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES, AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE SOME SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH,
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY REACH INTO THE MID 80S BEHIND THE
DRYLINE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. OFTENTIMES IN MARCH, STRONG FRONTS PUSH THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DEEP INTO THE TROPICS. BUT SO FAR THIS MARCH WE
HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM GETTING RICH MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF IN
THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGES. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY, WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP
SINCE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL JET AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTH. BUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, THE ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS, KNOCKING
TEMPERATURES DOWN ONLY A FEW DEGREES. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES OUGHT
TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ALL WEEK AS LEE TROUGHING
QUICKLY REDEVELOPS GIVEN THE FAIRLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
THE LOW STRATUS CEILING WAS INCREASING SLOWLY THROUGH THE MVFR
CATEGORY AS OF MIDDAY WITH 2000 TO 3000 FOOT BROKEN/OVERCAST BEING
REPORTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE CONFIRMS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
AROUND THE GCK AREA...HOWEVER IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT CEILING WILL
ERODE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL BE MAINTINING A MVFR CEILING
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY 2500 TO 3000 FEET BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO BE CARRYING VICINITY SHOWERS AT DDC AND HYS
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW FROM 20Z TO 01Z. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE
MOISTURE-LADEN GROUND. AT THIS TIME WILL BE FORECASTING IFR IN
LIGHT FOG FROM 09Z TO 14Z FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SOME DENSE
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY AROUND DAYBREAK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 37 67 41 74 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 36 68 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 36 72 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 37 71 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 40 66 41 76 / 10 0 0 0
P28 42 68 43 74 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM....FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
155 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT STRETCHES FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST BACK INTO ALBERTA CANADA...WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE WARMER THAN
NORMAL AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES AGAIN TODAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
RECORD BREAKING WARMTH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETREATING INTO THE
50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF THIS HOUR WITH ZONE OF SHOWERS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG
NEARLY STATIONARY BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER
OVER EASTERN UPPER...WITH BEST CHANCES OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTHERN LOWER BEING CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF US 131 WHERE
THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED. MUCAPE VALUES
ARE ALREADY REACHING 500 J/KG IN THIS AREA...WITH A RUN TOWARDS
1000 J/KG POSSIBLE NEAR MY SOUTHWEST BOARDER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LACKING MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THIS REGION AS FRONTAL
ZONE NOW HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN LOWER. HOWEVER...IT MAY ATTEMPT
TO MIX BACK NORTH AS SKIES CLEAR OVER MY SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE /ALONG WITH LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT FROM MANSITEE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT/ FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT AM NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS...AND WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
TOOK TEMPS DOWN JUST A TAD BASED ON EARLY AFTERNOON TRENDS...BUT
CLEARLY ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF M-72.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 130KT JET STREAK
NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF JAMES BAY MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING
ASSISTANCE FOR LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE COLD FRONT /WHICH
BISECTS NORTHERN LOWER/ WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN CENTERED
OVER EASTERN UPPER. THIS HAS FORCED THE PRIMARY BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POPPING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COLD DOME RELEASES 3-500
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z RAOB FROM APX. THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED A LITTLE PEA SIZED HAIL...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT THAT/S ABOUT IT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
TO PULL EAST AND NORTH WHILE WANING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET
STREAK SHIFTS EAST AND THE JET TO OUR NORTH REORIENTS ITSELF. BAND
OF MID LEVEL FGEN HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
...SO AM LESS CERTAIN ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF IMPROVEMENT OVER EASTERN
UPPER WHERE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES HERE AS A RESULT.
BACK SOUTH OVER NORTHERN LOWER...INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ALLOWS FOR US TO START TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH ALOFT /+14C AT H85
THIS MORNING ON THE APX RAOB/. SO...WILL MAINTAIN WARM
TEMPERATURES HERE AND HIGHLIGHT AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES IN THE
VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL FOCUS MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE...BUT FOR NOW LATE AFTERNOON CHANCE POPS
LOOK GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
SHALLOW SFC FRONT NOW ACROSS THE SE CWA...BUT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
LIFTING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN IS ALLOWING FOR AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS OCCURRING WELL NORTH
OF THE FRONT...EVEN IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE THE ACTIVITY
IS SEEMINGLY BEING ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN. FORECAST IS FAIRLY
ON TRACK. DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY
MID/LATE MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER US FOR DAYS IS NOW GETTING
FLATTENED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIPPING THROUGH ONTARIO. A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH NRN WISCONSIN...OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER OKLAHOMA...IS RESULTING IN SOME MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW DRAPED OVER NRN LOWER.
COMBINED WITH A CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...THE RADAR IS
STARTING TO LIGHT UP A BIT MORE WITH SHOWERS. MORE RETURNS ARE
POPPING UP OVER NRN LK MICHIGAN AS WELL...ALSO AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS WITHIN AXIS OF 1.2" PWATS...HIGH THETA-E AIR AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN LOWER (MUCAPES ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
RIGHT NOW...BUT RESPECTABLE 6.5C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LEADING
TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS).
SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH NRN LOWER THIS
MORNING...BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE/THETA-E REMAIN OVER NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...COINCIDENT WITH THE 850MB FRONT. AS THE IMPULSE OVER
NRN WISCONSIN WORKS ITS WAY INTO NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...AM
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE OFF AND TRACK
ACROSS THE STRAITS SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE THUNDER SHOULD BE IN NRN
LOWER AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES QUITE WELL ACROSS CHIPPEWA
COUNTY. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG...AND EXTENT OF
HEATING WILL GOVERN HOW MUCH OF A LAKE BREEZE WE CAN GENERATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...SOME OF THE HIGHER RES DATA SUGGESTS THAT
IN AND AROUND THE GTV BAY REGION WE COULD SEE DEVELOPING
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZES. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK IMPULSES UP THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN AS IT
LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND BACKING LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL ALIGN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS JUST ABOVE THE
SFC...INTO MORE OF A SE TO NW ORIENTATION. THE OVERALL FORCING IS
LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...BUT CAN SEE PERIODIC SHOWERS (SCATTERED)
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN LOWER THROUGH ALL OF
TONIGHT...AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE MARGINAL WITH TIME...SO THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS COMMON BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SEEING
RAINFALL HOWEVER WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH FRIDAY...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE SFC/UPPER LOW`S OCCLUDED FRONT.
EXTENT OF CLOUDS BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
PLAYER IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. MAX READINGS CAN CERTAINLY APPROACH
80 DEGREES IN AND AROUND GTV/SAG BAYS TODAY...WHILE THE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR/CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE FELT ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. CLOUDIER SKIES EXPECTED ALL AREAS FRIDAY...WITH ALL
LOCALES IN THE 60S. ANY SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABLE TO RESULT
IN MUCH WARMER READINGS THOUGH (70S/LOW 80S POTENTIAL).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 500 MB CUT OFF LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO C INDIANA
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE LOW AND BRING RAIN TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH E UPPER LOOKS LIKE IT COULD ESCAPE THE BULK OF THE
RAIN AS MOST OF IT FALLS CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER.
SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS AS THE 500 MB CUTOFF LOW
MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES
OVER THE REGION, THE LAPSE RATES FOR THE 700-500 MB LAYER BEGIN TO
STEEPEN TO BETTER THAN 6 C/KM, WHICH IS WHAT I USED AS A ROUGH CUT
OFF FOR THUNDER. SO ADDED A RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR THE MORNING IN NE
LOWER, THEN AS THE COOLER 500 MB TEMPERATURES ROTATE WEST HAVE
THUNDER POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF THE STRAITS. OVERNIGHT, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE REGION, GRADUALLY. HOWEVER, THE
ONE CONCERN IS THAT THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION, WHICH IS QUITE DEEP THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SO HAVE ADDED
PATCHY DRIZZLE, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THAT.
EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SUNDAY, THE HEIGHTS BUILD
SLIGHTLY. THE ECMWF CLEARS THINGS OUT FOR A TIME, WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT CLOUDY. SO WILL KEEP THE TIME DRY. MONDAY, WILL LEAVE THE
DAY DRY AS A WARM FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW IN CANADA, MOVES
MOVES INTO W UPPER BY THE AFTERNOON AND THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IS STILL
DRYING THE REGION. TUESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THERE
IS SOME WARMING OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES INTO THE REGION,
HOWEVER, THE GFS IS +12C AND ECMWF IS +6C. LIKE YESTERDAY, WILL
CONTINUE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY, BOTH MODELS WERE
SHOWING A CHANCE FOR RAIN NOW, IT IS ONLY THE GFS, WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWING DRY WEATHER AS THE HIGH AGGRESSIVELY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. WILL LEAVE THE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW, BUT THE LATER PART
OF THE FORECAST MAY BE CHANGED LATER TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SAVE
SOME PESKY 1KFT STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN FLOATING AROUND PLN...AND
ALSO APN. FEEL THAT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE...SO THROUGH EARLY EVENING EXPECT GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. COULD SEE SOME SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING SOUTH OF TVC /PERHAPS IMPACTING MBL/ AND WILL CARRY A
CB GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
TONIGHT...EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST...WITH SLOWLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FIRST...EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGTH AT PLN...FOLLOWED AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT EACH OF THE OTHER TERMINALS AS WINDS SLACKEN IN VERY MOIST
AIRMASS. EXPECT FOG TO GENERALLY BE OF THE MVFR VARIETY...AND
GIVEN AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS AS
WELL. EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE THICKEST AT PLN...WHERE A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBYS TOWARDS DAYBREAK IS LIKELY...WITH IFR A POSSIBILITY AT EACH
OF THE OTHER TERMINALS.
BAND OF SHOWERS /MUCH LIKE WHAT IS SEEN OVER ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON/ WILL LIKELY REACH MBL AND PERHAPS TVC DURING MORNING ON
FRIDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THUS...EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT MBL...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK
TO VFR /WITH LIGHT FOG-HAZE BURNING OFF/ AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO
5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY AND REACHING
BACK TOWARDS 10KTS BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROAM THROUGH LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON...MAINLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES. WINDS WILL BE BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND THIS FRONT
UNTIL WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER TO OUT OF THE EAST LATER TODAY. THE EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY...AND MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
ENHANCED BY FUNNELING THROUGH THE STRAITS...AND BY COASTAL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NRN SHORE OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JA
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM....JL
AVIATION...JA
MARINE...SD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
315 PM MDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER MT TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PEELING OFF THE
MEAN TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT. THE 12 UTC NAM REMAINS A FAST
OUTLIER WITH THE TIMING OF THAT SURFACE FRONT...SO ITS SOLUTION IS
NOT BEING USED IN THE FORECAST...WHICH INSTEAD LEANS ON THE 12 UTC
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS DECISION WAS INCREASED BY A
TREND BY THE 18 UTC NAM TOWARD THE SLOWER SET OF SOLUTIONS.
AT 21 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS NORTH OF LEWISTOWN...WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS SOUTHWEST TOWARD BOZEMAN. THE RUC FROM
18 UTC REMAINS ON TRACK IN PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTHEAST TO ABOUT A
MILES CITY AND HARDIN LINE BY 06 UTC. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
GOING TO BE A WEAK WIND SHIFT THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE BELIEVE
THE FRONT WILL IN EFFECT WASH OUT BY FRI MORNING AS PRESSURE FALLS
BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE. THAT PROCESS WILL
KEEP SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE BAKER AREA...WHICH COULD HELP
PULL SOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THAT AREA.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F HAVE ACTUALLY MADE IT UP INTO RAPID
CITY AS OF MID AFTERNOON...SO IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THESE MOIST
READINGS COULD APPROACH BAKER BY 12 UTC. SOME FOG...OR AT THE VERY
LEAST A BIT OF STRATUS...COULD ACCOMPANY THIS MOISTURE...JUST LIKE
THE 12 UTC MET GUIDANCE INDICATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN DRY TOP SOIL...
AND INDICATIONS OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS...WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM
INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
ON FRI...850-HPA TEMPERATURES OF +16 TO +20 C WILL EXIST OUT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT /AND STRONGER/ COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY
ONLY MIX TO AROUND 750-HPA GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SO
WE WERE HESITANT TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT...WHICH STILL HAS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S F. WE NEED TO
NOTE THAT A PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT LIKE THIS ONE COULD EASILY END
UP WARMER...AND WITH THAT IN MIND WE CANNOT ENTIRELY DISCOUNT WHAT
THE 12 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF SHOWS WITH ITS 80+ F HIGHS ACROSS
SOME PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT. EITHER WAY...DAILY RECORDS COULD BE
IN EASY REACH AT BOTH SHERIDAN /76 F...SET IN 1993/ AND MILES CITY
/78 F...ALSO SET IN 1993/. HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
OR SO ON THE PLAINS...SO THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ELEVATED RISK
OF GRASSLAND FIRES...WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE TEMPERED BY
A LACK OF STRONG PRE-FRONTAL WINDS.
BY FRI EVENING...LOW- AND MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE PRESSURE
RISE TO GO WITH IT. SIMILAR FRONTS LAST WEEK WERE ABLE TO GENERATE
A PERIOD OF VERY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY SINCE LIKE THIS UPCOMING
ONE THEY PASSED WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS STILL WELL-MIXED AFTER
A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. THE 500 M AGL WINDS FROM THE 12 UTC GFS ARE
ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 00 TO 06 UTC AS WELL...WHICH ALSO
SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH SURFACE WINDS. IT LOOKS
LIKE HUMIDITY INCREASES QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WE WILL HOLD
OFF ANY KIND OF FIRE HEADLINES...BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE
EMPHASIZED FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLAY AS
THE FRONT PASSES...BUT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD A BIT
OF CONVECTION LIKE THE 15 UTC SREF SHOWS. WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH IN
THE WAY OF CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE POPS AT THIS POINT THOUGH SINCE
THE AMBIENT AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY.
BY SAT...LOW-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE...WHICH IS
A SCENARIO THAT CAN HAVE LIMITED MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIX TO
ONLY ABOUT 850-HPA. THUS...ADVERTISED HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 60 F. WE
ARE ACTUALLY PROBABLY OPTIMISTIC WITH THESE HIGHS IN SOME AREAS AS
2 M TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS MAINLY FROM 50 TO 55 F. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MON THROUGH TUE WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WHICH BEGINS ON SUN. SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND
WARM AS RIDGING ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO SW FLOW AHEAD OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE. ON MON...THE WAVE WILL ROTATE NE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE ECMWF MOVING THE WAVE FASTER THAN THE GFS. THIS DIFFERENCE
IN THE SPEED OF THE WAVE CONTINUED THROUGH TUE. THE GFS HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN-TO-RUN WITH THE WAVE SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD
IT FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST. BOTH MODELS BROUGHT A GOOD SHOT OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH VARYING SPEEDS.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION FOR BOTH THESE PERIODS. THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME BETTER REFINED IN LATER SHIFTS AS THE
MODELS CLOSE IN ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. MON LOOKED VERY WARM
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF +2 TO +4 DEGREES C
OVER THE AREA AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO NEAR 500 MB. HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES E OF KBIL. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TO CREATE HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OLDER MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN THE POSSIBILITY
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S ON TUE. GIVEN THAT
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED
WARMER...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES TO THE CONSALL GUIDANCE. THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT LEAVING LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER FAR SE MT. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH A WSW FLOW WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD SO EXPECT WED THROUGH THU TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON FROM KLVM NE TO HARLOWTON.
ALSO EXPECT LOCALIZED OBSCURATION OVER THE CRAZYS...BEARTOOTH AND
ABSAROKAS DUE TO THE SHOWERS. GUSTY SW SURFACE WINDS FROM ROUNDUP
TO KBIL TO PRYOR W WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL REDEVELOP FROM ROUNDUP TO KBIL TO PRYOR W FRI AFTERNOON.
ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/071 039/059 039/069 044/078 037/059 036/061 036/064
00/B 11/B 10/B 02/W 33/W 11/B 11/B
LVM 040/064 039/056 039/064 042/071 035/053 035/057 033/060
02/W 22/W 10/B 03/W 55/W 11/B 11/B
HDN 037/075 040/063 037/073 040/078 035/060 034/063 032/069
00/B 11/B 10/B 01/B 33/W 11/B 11/B
MLS 039/079 040/060 038/072 043/078 036/057 033/060 035/067
00/U 11/B 10/B 01/B 33/W 11/B 11/B
4BQ 040/079 043/062 040/075 043/081 037/058 035/062 034/068
00/U 01/B 10/B 01/B 33/W 11/B 11/B
BHK 041/075 040/061 037/070 043/076 040/053 032/057 033/066
00/B 11/B 10/B 01/N 34/W 21/B 11/B
SHR 039/075 039/064 039/071 040/074 034/057 034/061 033/066
00/U 01/B 10/B 01/B 33/W 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1234 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST AS UPPER LOW OVER SRN PLAINS SPINS MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN OVER THE TAF SITES. WITH HEATING DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LARGER CU FIELD THUS HAVE A
TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR CIGS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST
MODELS BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH FOG AND IFR CIGS INTO KLNK
OVERNIGHT SO DID HINT AT THAT IN THE TAF. FOR BOTH KOMA AND
KOFK...DID LEAVE THESE IN VFR CATEGORY AS FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS THEY COULD DEVELOP BOTH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012/
DISCUSSION...
DEALING WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
MOVEMENT OUT OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN.
AT 07Z UPPER LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH SURFACE LOW
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. NEXT ARM OF SHOWERS PIVOTING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. HRRR MODEL LIFTS THE SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 12Z WITH SHOWERS CONFINED TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO END IN THE NORTHEAST BUT SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA AS UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW MOVING TO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES YET ON FRIDAY FOR
SOUTHEAST AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS MISSOURI. LOW
FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO END RAIN THREAT FOR
THE AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA WITH MODELS STALLING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT THE LATE PERIOD STARTING ON WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT
WITH STALLED FRONT NEARBY TO THE SOUTH LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE
LIKELY.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY...
LINGERING FOG HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
MORNING...BUT EVEN REPORTING STATIONS IN THAT AREA ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW SIGNS OF VSBYS AT OR ABOVE 1/2 MILE. STRATUS IS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WEST OF US HWY 1 BUT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLOUDS
WILL BREAK BY NOON AND SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
AFTERNOON HEATING. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE
CONVECTIVE CONVERGE. THE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL APPEARS RELATIVELY
QUIET UPSTREAM OVER VA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
OBVIOUS DISTURBANCES AND MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT PENETRATING INTO
CENTRAL NC. THE MAIN CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS OF THE UPPER LOW IS NOW
RIGHT ALONG THE OBX COAST. RUC DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE FORECASTS SUGGEST
THERE MAY BE A WEAK JET AND SHALLOW DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN PA/MD
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EARLY SIGNS OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
COOLEST. HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY ACTIVE WITH REGARDS TO
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST...BUT GIVEN THE ABOVE
OBSERVATIONS...WE WILL KEEP POPS HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. TO
THE SOUTH...SEABREEZE AND SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER INLAND SC WHERE
DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATER MAY DRIFT NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WIND FIELDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. -SMITH
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT...NARROW UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND N-S ACROSS THE REGION. THE
PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LIGHT WIND REGIME NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR MASS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CREATE CONDITIONS OPTIMAL
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION DENSE FOG
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FEATURES AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WITH A DEEP CLOSED VORTEX OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
DECAYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
INTERACTS WITH THE POLAR JET TO THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
AND A MODEST COLD FRONT...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THIS ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND MISS VALLEY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE EAST AND
OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT
AND WILL NECESSITATE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND AREA OF PRECIPITATION...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 60S.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY.
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS BY LATE IN THE
DAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...THE MID LEVELS SHOULD COOL
SOMEWHAT RESULTING IN LIMITED BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION. SPC HAS MUCH OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS IN A SLIGHT RISK ON
SATURDAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT
OF DRYING ALOFT AND RESULTANT INSOLATION THAT COULD ENHANCE
INSTABILITY. WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL HEATING WILL BE
LIMITED. WILL KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IN THE MORNING...THEN A BIT
OF A LULL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN PERHAPS A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID
70S LOOK GOOD.
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT AND A MORE
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES. WITH THE VORTEX JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT EXPECT SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S LOOK GOOD.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD VORTEX MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE VARIOUS DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW INITIATE SCT CONVECTION. WITH FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 7-8KFT...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS
PROGRESSIVE AND RATHER AMPLIFIED. A PHASING AND DEEPENING TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
WILL ADD/EXTEND SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF HOLDS ONTO PRECIP
IN THE EAST AND EVEN THE 12Z GFS SHOWS SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT NO PRECIP.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH
MOVING OFFSHORE AND AN INCREASINGLY DEEP VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW..
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS EVEN
SUGGESTS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGION OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL OMIT POPS FOR NOW BUT INCREASE CLOUD
COVER NOTABLY.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND APPROACHES THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE 12 GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. NOT
SURPRISINGLY THE GFS GENERATES A LOT MORE PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT/TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. -BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM THURSDAY...
THIS MORNINGS FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED TO VFR LEVEL CUMULUS
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TRIAD WHERE KGSO/KINT STILL REPORT 2-3K FT
CEILINGS. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CEILINGS THERE SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY 20Z...WITH LESS CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM THAN AREAS TO THE
EAST. OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MAY IMPACT ANY TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS IS GREATEST AT KFAY
AND KRWI. CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON PREVIOUS
MORNINGS...PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL THIS EVENING...AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE..CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI.
OUTLOOK....SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW CROSSES CENTRAL NC. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
205 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY...
LINGERING FOG HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
MORNING...BUT EVEN REPORTING STATIONS IN THAT AREA ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW SIGNS OF VSBYS AT OR ABOVE 1/2 MILE. STRATUS IS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WEST OF US HWY 1 BUT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLOUDS
WILL BREAK BY NOON AND SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
AFTERNOON HEATING. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE
CONVECTIVE CONVERGE. THE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL APPEARS RELATIVELY
QUIET UPSTREAM OVER VA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
OBVIOUS DISTURBANCES AND MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT PENETRATING INTO
CENTRAL NC. THE MAIN CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS OF THE UPPER LOW IS NOW
RIGHT ALONG THE OBX COAST. RUC DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE FORECASTS SUGGEST
THERE MAY BE A WEAK JET AND SHALLOW DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN PA/MD
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EARLY SIGNS OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
COOLEST. HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY ACTIVE WITH REGARDS TO
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST...BUT GIVEN THE ABOVE
OBSERVATIONS...WE WILL KEEP POPS HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. TO
THE SOUTH...SEABREEZE AND SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER INLAND SC WHERE
DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATER MAY DRIFT NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WIND FIELDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. -SMITH
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT...NARROW UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND N-S ACROSS THE REGION. THE
PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LIGHT WIND REGIME NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR MASS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CREATE CONDITIONS OPTIMAL
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION DENSE FOG
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. FRIDAY MORNING WILL
DRIFT EWD AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS
DRIFTS ENE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EWD....EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCURRING
OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEP CENTRAL U.S. LOW. BELIEVE INITIAL SURGE OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OPAQUE ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
FILTERED SUNSHINE IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
SLY FLOW WILL LIKELY AID TO INITIATE ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC. DEVELOPING SSW FLOW SHOULD
KEEP BULK OF CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN AND NOT CREEP INTO THE
PIEDMONT. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED/DELAYED PRECIP ONSET IN THE WEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN AROUND 1390M FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH DEVELOPING SW SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH AIDING TO BRING ADDITIONAL WARMTH ...AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND
80/LOWER 80S HIGHLY PROBABLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY ESE
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. BEGINNING TO SEE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING WITH THE NAM NOTICEABLY SLOWER COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF.
APPEARS BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 LIKELY
REMAINING DRY UNTIL DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIP TIMING A
TAD IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...DELAYING LIKELY POPS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR 2 AM. REMAINING MILD WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
A POTENT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT CENTRAL NC THIS WEEKEND... RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SOME ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW... BUT
THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE FROM
A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 00Z NAM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... 84 HOURS) AND THE 00Z
GFS... LIFTING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE AREA IN A SW TO NE FASHION
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT. WHICH APPEARS TO BE TIED TO SEVERAL FACTORS... HOW
MUCH SURFACE HEATING WILL WE REALIZE (INSTABILITY) AND HOW POSSIBLE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT (STILL A
BIT FAR OUT TO MAKE A GOOD ASSESSMENT ON THIS YET WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE). IN FACT THE LATEST MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD 5-10
DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER... WITH INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (~30-50 KTS) AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODEST SURFACE INSTABILITY (UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG) ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME
KIND OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... WITH THE
MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY... WHICH LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AT THIS TIME. POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH PERIODS
(GFS ATTEMPTS TO DRY SLOT US SATURDAY NIGHT). GIVEN THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY... RESULTING IN
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS... EXPECT WE
COULD SEE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING.
WITH THIS TYPE OF A SETUP WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THUS...
WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY IN THE HWO.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGH IN THE 73-77 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO E. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GIVEN THE UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SUNDAY... WILL CONTINUE TO TREND HIGH TEMPS BELOW STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE THEN... GENERALLY LOWER 70S... WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID 70S
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S... AS THE MID/UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER... HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS... GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRY BACKDOOR CLOUD DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TRACKS ESE`WARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS... WILL
GO WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S DURING THIS PERIOD...
WITH POSSIBLY SOME 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM THURSDAY...
THIS MORNINGS FOG AND STRATUS HAS LIFTED TO VFR LEVEL CUMULUS
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TRIAD WHERE KGSO/KINT STILL REPORT 2-3K FT
CEILINGS. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CEILINGS THERE SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY 20Z...WITH LESS CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM THAN AREAS TO THE
EAST. OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MAY IMPACT ANY TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS IS GREATEST AT KFAY
AND KRWI. CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON PREVIOUS
MORNINGS...PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL THIS EVENING...AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE..CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI.
OUTLOOK....SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW CROSSES CENTRAL NC. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
424 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARDS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. BUT BAND OF SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST WILL
START TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THIS.
EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS AT OR ABOVE
WARMER MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW WILL MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT ANY ONE LOCATION BUT DO
EXPECT JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TO GET MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THERE IS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. BUT GIVEN THE THE LACK
OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE BAND TODAY BACK TO OUT WEST...HAVE
PLAYED DOWN THUNDER AND ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. WITH HEATING AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY WITH
SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION AND AS BETTER FORCING WITH THE
LOW MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT AS WARM. HAVE USED A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY LEANING SOMEWHAT TOWARDS COOLER NAM MOS. WENT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS FOR LOWS BOTH NIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS
FOR SATURDAY HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO THE FA BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS THE FA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOW 40S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN INITIAL
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW AND THE LATEST RUC IS NOT
BRINGING IT TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE AND AS A RESULT HAVE TRENDED THE TAFS TOWARD THE
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. AHEAD OF THIS BAND...SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BUT CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTIONS OUT OF THE
TAFS.
WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING WITH THE CURRENT
BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL OVERNIGHT SO THINK ANY THUNDER WILL REMAIN LIMITED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL THEREFORE JUST SPREAD A
PREVAILING -SHRA IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. WE SHOULD
DESTABILIZE BETTER THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL BE PUSHED ASIDE AS LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL EXIT ON SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAD SOME AC ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
THIS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED WITH SKIES MAINLY SUNNY ATTM. WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE LATER TODAY IN MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKS ITS WAY
SLOWLY EAST. STILL THOUGH...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SO WILL NUDGE TEMPS
UP A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY. AS WE WARM
UP...SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE
LIMITED FORCING SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY MILD
READINGS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY ON
FRIDAY...AND THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NECESSITATE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES EAST.
I REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS THE
AIRMASS WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER AND THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF
ANY DIRECT SUNSHINE TO INSTIGATE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE RECENT RECORD-BREAKING SPELL THESE
PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN INITIAL
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW AND THE LATEST RUC IS NOT
BRINGING IT TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE AND AS A RESULT HAVE TRENDED THE TAFS TOWARD THE
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. AHEAD OF THIS BAND...SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BUT CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTIONS OUT OF THE
TAFS.
WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING WITH THE CURRENT
BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL OVERNIGHT SO THINK ANY THUNDER WILL REMAIN LIMITED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL THEREFORE JUST SPREAD A
PREVAILING -SHRA IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. WE SHOULD
DESTABILIZE BETTER THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1232 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND WILL
MAINTAIN A WIDESPREAD IMPACT THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST UNTIL THE RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
OVERALL VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEFORE TURNING VFR
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN LOCATIONS TOMORROW
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN DEVELOPING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL PROFILER AND VWP DATA HAVE SAMPLED A STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL JET MAX ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE E-NE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ASSOCIATED
FORCING HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID CLOUD ALONG WITH A
REGION OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE SPEED MAX INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALL SHORT RANGE DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS E OK/NW AR THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL SIMPLY REFINE PRECIP CHANCES TO
FOLLOW THE SCENARIO. THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS ACROSS SE OK / NW AR WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND FIELDS
PRODUCE AMPLE SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE LARGEST
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE RECOVERY OF TEMPS AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD.
WHERE THE AIRMASS DOES RECOVERY ENOUGH INSTABILITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY
TO EVOLVE. LOCAL WRF RUNS ALONG WITH HRRR DATA SUGGEST THIS IS
MOST LIKELY ACROSS EXTREME SE OK AND POINTS FURTHER EAST. THE
UPDATED FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY OBSERVED
CLOUD / TEMP TRENDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 60 44 68 46 / 80 40 40 10
FSM 64 45 67 45 / 80 80 30 10
MLC 60 42 70 46 / 80 30 10 10
BVO 60 42 65 42 / 80 50 50 10
FYV 64 42 62 41 / 80 80 50 10
BYV 65 46 61 45 / 80 80 60 10
MKO 61 43 66 44 / 80 40 20 10
MIO 62 45 63 46 / 80 80 60 10
F10 60 44 68 48 / 80 30 10 10
HHW 64 43 72 48 / 80 50 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1252 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
.UPDATE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SW NOT ANTICIPATED TO ENTER SW QUAD OF CWA
UNTIL 18Z. LIKELY POPS STARTING AT 18Z IN FAR SW. NOT MUCH CHANGE OTHER
THEN THAT...LATEST HRRR RUN HAS A SIMILAR REFLECTIVITY FIELD POSITION
AS RADAR MOSAIC S-SW OF CWA. NOTABLY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ON BASE SCAN
OF MKX RADAR...SHOULD KEEPS TEMPS SIGNIFICANT COOLER NEAR SHORE AND
INLAND...ESPECIALLY MILWAUKEE...OZAUKEE...SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES. THE WARM
START HAS TEMPS EXCEEDING FCST VALUES. VIS SAT TRENDS SHOW MORE
SUNSHINE IMPACTING THE TEMP FCST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THIS
COMBINED WITH LATEST MODEL RH FIELDS...GAVE REASON TO UPDATE SKY GRIDS.
GIVEN THE WARM START...PRESENT SKY CONDITIONS...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW...TEMPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER STILL
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A LOT OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME UNTIL CIGS LOWER CONSIDERABLY. WILL
PROBABLY SEE CIGS HOLD ONTO VFR INTO THE EVENING...EVEN DURING THE
ONSET OF RAIN. SHOULD GET PRETTY SOUPY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING THOUGH AS SHOWERS CONTINUE...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
VFR LIKELY TO RETURN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT
AND A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES BACK IN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE BIG UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE ON ITS NORTHERN
PERIMETER REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN BY TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO HOLD OFF ANY
SERIOUS INTRUSION OF WET WEATHER UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME INITIAL 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS MOVE THIS AREA NORTH BY MID MORNING...BRINGING A
LITTLE BREAK BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE EAST TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
BY MID AFTERNOON...THE ARRIVAL OF A SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROTATING
NORTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH SOME DEEP FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING IN A GOOD MOIST CONVEYOR BELT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY
SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THINGS TAPER OFF
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH CAPE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED TODAY...BUT COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW. AN
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BRING A LAKE COOLED AIRMASS TO THAT AREA...ESPECIALLY UP
AROUND SHEBOYGAN...FOND DU LAC AND PORT WASHINGTON. THERE COULD BE
SOME LAKE INDUCED FOG CLOSE TO THE SHORE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT VERY
HIGH GIVEN THE LOWER DWPNTS ADVECTING IN...SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX AND
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS FRIDAY MORNING. THEN POOLING MOISTURE AND
ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE REST OF FRIDAY AND WELL INTO
SATURDAY.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 150 TO 200 J/KG OF CAPE WITH THE
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SUPPORT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
NO MENTION OF THUNDER FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP
IN THE AREA. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 60S...WITH 50S NEAR THE LAKE ON
SAT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO SOUTHERN WI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THIS PAST
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE
LAKESHORE...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR BACK INTO THE 70S
TOWARD WESTERN WI WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE COOL AND A TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
THE 500MB RIDGE MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR VORT MAXES ROLLING ACROSS
THE TOP AND ALLOWING FOR AN MCS OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND THE PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS ARE NOW LOOKING TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY RATHER THAN EASTERLY PER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. THIS MEANS A POTENTIAL
GOOD WARM-UP INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR TUE INTO WED. WENT WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGH TEMPS. THE FRONT/SFC
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING LOW WILL CROSS WI TUE NIGHT AND
LINGERING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BACKED OFF ON THEIR IDEA FOR COOLER
TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. RECORD WARM MARCH...
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. THEN A
FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...TAPERING
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
SATURATES...LOOK FOR CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG THE LAKE COULD ALSO
SEE SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP DUE TO THE COLD ONSHORE FLOW. THIS
FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK AND CONFIDENCE ISN/T VERY HIGH THIS WILL
OCCUR...BUT IT IS A POSSIBILITY.
MARINE...
ONLY MARINE CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING AS
A MOIST AIRMASS INTERACTS WITH THE COLDER AIR OVER THE LAKE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON CLOSED LOW AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH THUNDER CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER OK WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGING AND IN ADVANCE OF THE CLOSED LOW
EXTENDED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO OUR AREA. DRYING IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR AREA IN THIS SUBSIDENCE WAS CAUSING MOST OF
THE SHOWERS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW TOWARD THE AREA TO
EVAPORATE...THOUGH NOW A FEW MORE SURFACE OBS SHOWING RAIN MAKING IT
TO GROUND AS THEY BEGIN TO FEEL STRETCHING DEFORMATION/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WHICH IS PLACE FROM SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHERN
WI. RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE OBS ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORCING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA WERE VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
22.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HANDLING OF
THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND AFFECT ON THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER OK WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH MOISTURE FETCH NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE NORTHEAST OF I-94. CANNOT RULE OUT A CRACK OR TWO
OF THUNDER. WHILE 0-1KM MLCAPE IS MINIMAL...NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT ISOLATED
MENTION OF THUNDER IN BASED ON THIS SIGNAL. TEMPERATURES WILL SUFFER
A BIT TODAY COMPARATIVELY TO LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/INCOMING SHOWERS...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI TONIGHT...LOOK
FOR CONVEYOR OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT AN
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT TOOK OUT
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS ANY CAPE WANES QUICKLY. ANTICIPATING AROUND
1/2 INCH RAINFALL ON AVERAGE FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODELS SHOW THE CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE/BULK OF THE SHOWERS LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF I-94 ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN IL. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OFF AGAIN IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S.
THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ON SATURDAY SHOULD
BE CONFINED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT/STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR A LITTLE MORE
HEATING. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TO SOME LOWER 70S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
22.00Z ECMWF/GFS DISPLAY SOME INTERESTING FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL TO HOW WARM WE GET. APPEARS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER
60S. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY AS WELL. THEN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OOZES SOUTH OUT
OF ONTARIO FOR COOLER/DRIER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF
DEFINITELY COOLER OF THE MODELS ON MONDAY...INDICATING 925MB AIR IN
THE 4-6C RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS INDICATING 8-15C.
MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S
NORTHEAST OF I-94...TO THE UPPER 60S ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER MONDAY WEST OF THE RIVER IN RESPONSE TO LIFT OVER A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IA. THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...PLAN ON INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS
A LOW TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA...PULLING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY...COULD SEE A BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER. GFS INDICATING 0-1KM
MLCAPE AROUND 1200J/KG WITH PLENTY OF BULK SHEAR NOSING UP INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE OF THE ESSENCE HERE AND WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF SHOW THE
AREA IN LINGERING DRY/BREEZY CYCLONIC FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
1140 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
SOME CLEARING OF THE BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. RUC13/HRRR/ARW MESO MODELS USE THE
INSTABILITY TO CONVECT SHRA/TS AROUND A SFC BOUNDARY THAT RUNS
WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST HOLD OFF UNTIL 20-21Z...AND WILL
USE THIS AS TIMING FOR THE TAFS. THE INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND DOESN/T
SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...RUC SOUNDINGS POINT TO A NEAR SFC
DRY LAYER...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AROUND ANY
SHRA/TS.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ROTATE IN LATER TONIGHT ON THE NORTHSIDE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLING TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
KRST/KLSE COULD BE STUCK IN THESE LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THIS LOW CLOUD COULD PUSH
FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT KRST/KLSE COULD SLIDE UNDER A DRY SLOT. IT
WOULD BE LIKELY THAT LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WOULD FORM IN THIS DRY
SLOT OVERNIGHT...WITH SUB 1SM BR AND SUB 1KFT CIGS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH THAT THIS AREA WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH
TONIGHT...SO WILL STAY WITH THE MVFR STRATUS FOR NOW. CERTAINLY
THOUGH...THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK